The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Social Safety Net Project (P145699) Strengthening Social Safety Net Project (P145699) MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA | Egypt, Arab Republic of | Social Protection & Jobs Global Practice | IBRD/IDA | Investment Project Financing | FY 2015 | Seq No: 15 | ARCHIVED on 27-Jul-2022 | ISR52432 | Implementing Agencies: Government of Egypt, Ministry of International Cooperation, Ministry of Social Solidarity Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date: 10-Apr-2015 Effectiveness Date: 06-Sep-2015 Planned Mid Term Review Date: 11-Dec-2017 Actual Mid-Term Review Date: 10-Dec-2017 Original Closing Date: 30-Nov-2019 Revised Closing Date: 31-Dec-2023 pdoTable Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The project development objective (PDO) is to support the Borrower to establish an efficient and effective Takaful and Karama CashTransfer Program. “Efficient” is defined and measured by good targeting of the poor. “Effective” is defined and measured bycoverage of the poor and having basic administrative building blocks of the Program. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? Yes Board Approved Revised Project Development Objective (If project is formally restructured) The project development objective (PDO) is to support the Borrower to establish an efficient and effective Takaful and Karama Cash Transfer Program and improve access to economic opportunities. Components Table Name Provision of Conditional and Unconditional Cash Transfers:(Cost $810.00 M) Support SSN Targeting and Operational Systems:(Cost $32.00 M) Project Management and Monitoring and Evaluation:(Cost $8.00 M) Economic Inclusion and Empowerment Services Pilot:(Cost $50.00 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Satisfactory Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Satisfactory Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating Substantial Substantial Implementation Status and Key Decisions Overall Progress. The project continues to make solid progress towards achieving targeted PDO and intermediate level indicators across its components. To date, the percentage of the program’s beneficiary households (HHs) who are under the poverty line” is 93.6 percent (81.1 percent of beneficiaries are poor and 12.5 percent are near-poor) out of a targeted 60 percent; the percentage of poor HHs covered by the program 7/27/2022 Page 1 of 13 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Social Safety Net Project (P145699) currently stands at 27.7 percent, out of the targeted 20 percent (with 74 percent female-headed HHs). Similarly, the number of days after payment due date, the funds deposited in beneficiaries individual accounts is zero against a target of one. The project has reached 3.69 million direct project beneficiaries (HHs) (12.84 million individuals) (including 74 percent women). Under Component 2, the share of sampled beneficiaries whose application information yields no discrepancies or errors once verified stands at 90 percent against a target of 80 percent; and 100 percent of beneficiaries continue to be paid electronically. The number of TKP beneficiary HHs increased by approximately 300,000 HHs since December 2021, with an additional 150,000 households planned to be added in the near future. The increase was part of the Government’s response to the economic repercussions of the Ukraine-Russia crisis and the devaluation of the Egyptian Pound in March 2022. 2,868 behavioral change training sessions were completed in December 2021 by NGOs, reaching 86,869 beneficiaries. Furthermore, 21 Grant Implementation Agreements were signed with 18 NGOs, to support a total of 25,871 beneficiaries under self-employment and 7,364 under wage employment; implementation on the ground is expected to kick off in the near future. Project disbursements and DLI achievement. Total project disbursements currently stand at US$811.25 million out of a total loan amount of US$900 million (US$400 million out of the parent project and US$411.25 million out of the Additional Financing (AF)). To date, under the parent project, 18 DLIs out of a total of 19 have been achieved for a total value of US$365 million, with one pending DLI -DLI #7 (US$10 million) which is related to the end-line evaluation and is expected to be achieved by August 2023. Under the AF, one DLI has been partially achieved and verified (DLR 10.1 - US$10 million) related to updating the TKP GM to accommodate potential grievances of the economic inclusion pilot (FORSA). Under the AF, DLIs have been achieved for a total amount of US$445 million, constituting 89 percent of the AF loan amount of US$500 million. There are currently three DLIs pending under the AF loan, namely: DLI 3 related to the FORSA end-line evaluation of the economic inclusion component; DLI 8 related to the MIS for the economic inclusion component; and DLR 10.2 related to reaching a resolution rate of 80 percent for the GM system covering TKP and FORSA. Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance Substantial Moderate Moderate Macroeconomic Substantial Moderate Moderate Sector Strategies and Policies Substantial Substantial Substantial Technical Design of Project or Program Substantial Moderate Moderate Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Substantial Moderate Moderate Sustainability Fiduciary Substantial Substantial Substantial Environment and Social Low Low Low Stakeholders Substantial Substantial Substantial Other Substantial Substantial Substantial Overall Substantial Substantial Substantial Results PDO Indicators by Objectives / Outcomes Support the Borrower to establish an efficient and effective Takaful and Karama Program. IN01171116 7/27/2022 Page 2 of 13 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Social Safety Net Project (P145699) ►Percentage of the program’s beneficiary households who are under the poverty line (to measure targeting efficiency/accuracy) (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 93.60 93.60 60.00 Date 30-Jun-2015 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Dec-2022 Number of beneficiaries who are below poverty line/total beneficiaries*100. According to analysis done using data of 2019/2020 Household, Income Expendutres and Consupmtion Comments: Survey (HIECS) 81.1% of beneficiaries are poor and 12.5% are near poor which makes 93.6 % IN01171118 ►Percentage of poor households covered by the program (to measure the program’s overall coverage) (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 27.70 27.70 20.00 Date 30-Jun-2015 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Dec-2022 T&K target coverage represents 38.77% of the bottom quintile, if targeting was perfect. With the assumption of 60% targeting accuracy, coverage of the poorest quintile becomes 23%. Comments: According to data of 2019/2020 Household, Income Expendutres and Consupmtion Survey (HIECS) which had specific quesitons on TKP. IN01171121 Of which are female-headed (Percentage, Custom Supplement) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 75.00 75.00 60.00 IN01171122 ►Number of days, after payment due date, the funds deposited in beneficiaries' individual accounts (a measure of administrative building block of the program) (Days, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 Date 30-Jun-2015 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Dec-2022 Improve access to economic opportunities. IN01171117 ►Percentage of beneficiaries of economic inclusion services who remain employed or self-employed 6 months after the completion of receiving the service package. (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 40.00 Date 30-Apr-2019 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Dec-2022 IN01171119 Of which, at least 30% are women (Percentage, Custom Breakdown) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 7/27/2022 Page 3 of 13 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Social Safety Net Project (P145699) Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 30.00 Date 30-Apr-2019 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Dec-2022 IN01171120 Of which, at least 50% are youth (aged 18 to 35 years) (Percentage, Custom Breakdown) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 Date 18-Dec-2018 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Dec-2022 Intermediate Results Indicators by Components Component 1: Provision of Conditional and Unconditional Cash Transfers IN01171123 ►Direct project beneficiaries (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 3,441,926.00 3,693,785.00 3,000,000.00 Date 30-Jun-2015 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Dec-2022 Direct beneficiaries are people or groups who directly derive benefits from an intervention (i.e., children who benefit from an immunization program; families that have a new piped water connection). Please note that this indicator requires supplemental information. Supplemental Value: Female beneficiaries Comments: (percentage). Based on the assessment and definition of direct project beneficiaries, specify what proportion of the direct project beneficiaries are female. This indicator is calculated as a percentage. IN01171126 Female beneficiaries (Percentage, Custom Supplement) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 75.00 74.00 60.00 IN01171129 ►Number of direct and indirect beneficiaries (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 11,983,909.00 12,838,149.00 12,750,000.00 Date 30-Jun-2015 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Dec-2022 Number of all individuals in the benefiting households. Or, individual recipients (mothers, elderly and Comments: disabled) multiplied by their household size. Targets assume an average household size of 3. IN01171132 ►Takaful and Karama CT Program launched (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 7/27/2022 Page 4 of 13 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Social Safety Net Project (P145699) Value No Yes Yes Yes Date 30-Jun-2015 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Dec-2022 Comments: MoSS informs Bank team; and press material. IN01171134 ►PMT-based application developed and PMT scoring adopted and applied (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No Yes Yes Yes Date 30-Jun-2015 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Dec-2022 IN01171136 ►Communication and outreach under implementation (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No Yes Yes Yes Date 30-Jun-2015 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Dec-2022 IN01171138 ►Share of HH in the Takaful sub-program who comply with education conditionality of 80% school attendance (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 81.00 69.00 80.00 Date 30-Jun-2015 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Dec-2022 IN01171142 ►Share of households in the Takaful subprogram who comply with health conditionality of 3 visits a year to the health unit and maintain child growth monitoring record (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 8.00 19.00 70.00 Date 30-Jun-2015 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Dec-2022 Comments: (Number of Takaful Beneficiaries with effective conditionalities/ Total number of Takaful beneficiaries)*100 IN01171147 ►Percent of beneficiaries whose consumption of foods increase (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 Date 30-Jun-2015 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Dec-2022 Beneficiary households increased food spending by 7.7% as a result of the Takaful program. Beneficiary households spent an average of 432 EGP per month per “adult equivalent”), a total of 1280 EGP per Comments: month for the household. This implies a spending increase of 33.3 EGP per “adult equivalent” or approximately 100 EGP per household. (ref. impact evaluation baseline study). 7/27/2022 Page 5 of 13 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Social Safety Net Project (P145699) IN01171149 ►Share of accepted beneficiaries in frontier governorates (out of total applicants of these governorates) (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 40.00 Date 30-Apr-2019 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Dec-2022 Component 2: Supporting Social Safety Net Targeting and Operation System IN01171125 ►Share of sampled beneficiaries whose application information yields no discrepancies or errors once verified (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 90.00 90.00 80.00 Date 30-Jun-2015 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Dec-2022 Number of beneficiaries whose application information is verified with no discrepancies or errors on record Comments: / total number of beneficiaries verified. Sample for verification is of newly enrolled beneficiaries in a given year. IN01171128 ►PMT targeting accuracy evaluation completed (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No Yes Yes Yes Date 30-Jun-2015 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Dec-2022 PMT targeting evaluation will be based on a random sample beneficiary consumption survey, after Comments: completion of wave one. IN01171131 ►PMT adjusted after targeting accuracy evaluation (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No Yes Yes Yes Date 30-Jun-2015 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Dec-2022 Targeting Accuracy assessment using consumption survey; recommendations results in changing of Comments: assigned weights / variables chosen for eligibility determination IN01171133 ►Process evaluation conducted after Wave 1 (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No Yes Yes Yes Date 30-Jun-2015 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Dec-2022 Comments: Findings from the process evaluation after wave 1 will be used to adjust processes. 7/27/2022 Page 6 of 13 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Social Safety Net Project (P145699) IN01171135 ►MIS is operational (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No Yes Yes Yes Date 30-Jun-2015 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Dec-2022 Operational is defined that information entered in field locations load correctly to MIS from all locations Comments: and devices, and the MIS is used to generate eligible IN01171137 ►MIS electronically synchronizes back-office information from SSP and Social Insurance databases (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No Yes Yes Yes Date 30-Jun-2015 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Dec-2022 Information sourced from specific database is loaded correctly. This does not measure integrity of input Comments: data IN01171139 ►Share of beneficiaries paid through electronic payments (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 Date 30-Jun-2015 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Dec-2022 (Number of beneficiaries paid via electronic means/ Total number of beneficiaries) *100 Comments: Quarterly payment transactions are produced quarterly IN01171140 ►“Attention to beneficiary module – case management” within MIS is operational (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No Yes Yes Yes Date 30-Jun-2015 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Dec-2022 IN01171141 ►Conditionality compliance module in MIS is operational (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No Yes Yes Yes Date 30-Jun-2015 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Dec-2022 IN01171143 ►Complaint management module in MIS is operational (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 7/27/2022 Page 7 of 13 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Social Safety Net Project (P145699) Value No Yes Yes Yes Date 30-Jun-2015 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Dec-2022 IN01171144 ►Percent of grievances addressed within stipulated timeframe (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 97.00 96.00 80.00 Date 30-Jun-2015 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Dec-2022 (Grievances addressed within stipulated timeframes/ total number of grievances filed)*100 Comments: The stipulated timeframes for complaints will be stated in the operational manual. IN01171145 ►Share of beneficiary school-aged children for whom the program has monitoring information for school attendance, as recorded in the information system (MIS). (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 100.00 100.00 30.00 Date 30-Apr-2019 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Dec-2022 IN01171146 ►Share of age-appropriate beneficiaries for whom the program has monitoring information for health conditionalities, as recorded in the information system (MIS). (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 39.00 63.00 30.00 Date 30-Apr-2019 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Dec-2022 IN01171148 ►Percentage of Active Social Accountability Committees reporting actions taken based on citizens’ and the program’s beneficiaries’ feedback. (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 50.00 69.00 80.00 Date 30-Apr-2019 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Dec-2022 IN01171150 ►Revised PMT is applied to reassess Wave 1 and Wave 2 applicants (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No Yes Yes Yes Date 30-Apr-2019 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Dec-2022 Component 3: Project Management and Monitoring and Evaluation IN01171124 ►Impact Evaluation of Component 4 has been finalized (Yes/No, Custom) 7/27/2022 Page 8 of 13 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Social Safety Net Project (P145699) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No No No Yes Date 30-Apr-2019 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Dec-2022 Component 4: Economic Inclusion and Empowerment Services Pilot IN01171127 ►Percentage of applications received for economic inclusion services that are assessed for eligibility (profiled) (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 80.00 Date 30-Apr-2019 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Dec-2022 IN01171130 ►Profiled applicants of economic inclusion services who were trained (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 100.00 100.00 30.00 Date 30-Apr-2019 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Dec-2022 Performance-Based Conditions IN01171151 ►PBC 1 The Re-certification of Round 1 Beneficiaries under the Takaful and Karama Cash Transfer Program has been finalized. (Yes/No, Outcome, 100,000,000.00, 0.00%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) FY2023 Value No Yes Yes -- Date -- 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 -- IN01171152 ►PBC 2 Number of profiled Beneficiaries received Training under the Economic Inclusion and Empowerment Services Pilot. (Number, Outcome, 25,000,000.00, 0.00%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) FY2023 Value 0.00 67,965.00 67,965.00 -- Date -- 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 -- 7/27/2022 Page 9 of 13 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Social Safety Net Project (P145699) IN01171153 ►PBC 3 Impact Evaluation Study of the Economic Inclusion and Empowerment Services Pilot has been finalized. (Yes/No, Output, 5,000,000.00, 0.00%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) FY2023 Value No No No Yes Date -- 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 -- IN01171154 ►PBC 4 Number of Beneficiaries enrolled under the Takaful and Karama Cash Transfer Program has increased to 2,500,000. (Number, Outcome, 125,000,000.00, 0.00%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) FY2023 Value 2,268,801.00 3,441,926.00 3,441,926.00 -- Date -- 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 -- IN01171155 ►PBC 5 Number of Beneficiaries enrolled under the Takaful and Karama Cash Transfer Program has increased to 3,000,000. (Number, Outcome, 75,000,000.00, 0.00%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) FY2023 Value 2,268,801.00 3,441,926.00 3,441,926.00 -- Date -- 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 -- IN01171156 ►PBC 6 Beneficiaries of the Social Solidarity Pension (Daman) reassessed, using the PMT, for eligibility under the Takaful and Karama Cash Transfer Program. (Yes/No, Outcome, 30,000,000.00, 0.00%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) FY2023 Value No Yes Yes -- Date -- 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 -- IN01171157 7/27/2022 Page 10 of 13 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Social Safety Net Project (P145699) ►PBC 7 Eligibility calculation formula is revised, to prioritize applicants for the Takaful and Karama Cash Transfer Program from Frontier Governorates. (Yes/No, Outcome, 70,000,000.00, 0.00%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) FY2023 Value No Yes Yes -- Date -- 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 -- IN01171158 ►PBC 8 MIS System updated and operationalized for the Economic Inclusion and Empowerment Services Pilot. (Yes/No, Outcome, 15,000,000.00, 0.00%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) FY2023 Value No No No -- Date -- 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 -- IN01171159 ►PBC 9 MIS adopts the use of UNR platform to perform electronic data exchange with external databases. (Yes/No, Outcome, 10,000,000.00, 0.00%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) FY2023 Value No Yes Yes -- Date -- 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 -- IN01171160 ►PBC 10 The Grievance Redress Mechanism is updated and operational. (Yes/No, Output, 15,000,000.00, 0.00%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) FY2023 Value No No No -- Date -- 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 -- IN01171161 ►PBC 11 Impact Evaluation Study completed and the results have been published detailing how well the Project has met its objective. (Yes/No, Output, 10,000,000.00, 0.00%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) FY2023 7/27/2022 Page 11 of 13 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Social Safety Net Project (P145699) Value No No No Yes Date -- 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 -- IN01171162 ►PBC 12 A conditionality compliance module of the MIS is operational and capable of identifying cases of non-compliance with the conditions in the Takaful Cash Transfer Program. (Yes/No, Outcome, 10,000,000.00, 0.00%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) FY2023 Value No Yes Yes -- Date -- 01-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 -- Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed P145699 IBRD-84960 Effective USD 400.00 400.00 0.00 400.00 0.00 100% P145699 IBRD-89970 Effective USD 500.00 500.00 0.00 411.25 88.75 82% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P145699 IBRD-84960 Effective 10-Apr-2015 17-Apr-2015 06-Sep-2015 30-Nov-2019 30-Dec-2022 P145699 IBRD-89970 Effective 02-Jul-2019 11-Sep-2019 09-Jan-2020 30-Dec-2022 31-Dec-2023 Cumulative Disbursements 7/27/2022 Page 12 of 13 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Social Safety Net Project (P145699) Restructuring History Level 2 Approved on 23-Mar-2022 Related Project(s) P168414-Strengthening Social Safety Net Additional Financing 7/27/2022 Page 13 of 13