The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report ET Productive Safety Nets Project 4 (PSNP 4) (P146883) ET Productive Safety Nets Project 4 (PSNP 4) (P146883) EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AFRICA | Ethiopia | Social Protection & Jobs Global Practice | IBRD/IDA | Investment Project Financing | FY 2015 | Seq No: 15 | ARCHIVED on 21-Jun-2022 | ISR51570 | Implementing Agencies: Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, Ministry of Agriculture-ET Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date: 30-Sep-2014 Effectiveness Date: 03-Feb-2015 Planned Mid Term Review Date: 20-Nov-2017 Actual Mid-Term Review Date: 11-Dec-2017 Original Closing Date: 31-Dec-2020 Revised Closing Date: 30-Jun-2022 pdoTable Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The Program Development Objective is: Increased access to safety net and disaster risk management systems, complementarylivelihoods services and nutrition support for food insecure households in rural Ethiopia. This will be achieved through 1)support for building core instruments and tools of social protection and DRM systems, 2) delivery of safety net and enhanced accessto livelihoods services for vulnerable rural households, and 3) improved program management and institutional coordination. Theprojectwill also contribute to the higher level objectives of (i) improved household food security, livelihoods and nutrition, and(ii) enhanced household and community resilience to shocks. This is consistent with the higher level objectives of the ongoing APLseries supporting the PSNP. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? Yes Board Approved Revised Project Development Objective (If project is formally restructured) The Project Development Objective is: increase access to effective safety net and disaster risk management systems, and complementary livelihood and nutrition services for food-insecure households in the Recipient s rural areas. Components Table Name Social Protection and Disaster Risk Management Systems:(Cost $40.00 M) Productive safety nets and links to livelihoods services:(Cost $530.00 M) Institutional Capacity Building and Project Management Support:(Cost $30.00 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO €Moderately Satisfactory €Moderately Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) €Satisfactory €Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating €Substantial €Substantial Implementation Status and Key Decisions Implementation Status and Key Decisions (Public Disclosure) 6/21/2022 Page 1 of 11 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report ET Productive Safety Nets Project 4 (PSNP 4) (P146883) Overall, project implementation was good given the contexts in which it was implemented including recurring drought, conflicts as well as Covid-19 which a some activities towards the closing period. The Team in collaboration with Government and development partners made some adjustment to activity imple to address challenges by Covid-19. These include allowing beneficiaries to receive transfers without public works requirements (waiver) and using online m in lieu of field visits. Summary of implementation progress by components Component 1: This component envisioned supporting the transition from independent programs to integrated social protection and Disaster Risk Manage (DRM) systems. It planned to finance the building blocks, tools and instruments of the SP system, including for targeting, single registry and information management. Establishment of the Management Information System has entered its final phase and this support future safety net operations in generating and reliable data. A comprehensive review of the existing fragmented early warning system of the country has been conducted and recommendation pre the government with the objective of establishing a single modernized early warning system. Data collection in some project implementing woredas has be completed but due to contractual problems created by Covid-19, data collection in the remaining woredas will be transitioned to the successor project, Stre Ethiopia's Adaptive Safety Net (SEASN). Component 2: This component foresaw financing a range of support to program clients, including safety nets transfers, sustainable community assets an access to human capital services, and support for enhancing access to livelihoods services. Over the life of the project, 7.9 million beneficiaries received t cash/and or food annually that smoothed their consumption and protected the depletion of their household assets. One major achievement under this com the expansion of electronic payment modality which has covered more than one third of Productive Safety Net Program woredas as well as 1.3 million hou Under the livelihoods sub-component, over the last years the project was able to reach 133k beneficiary households in 272 woredas through the provision off grant of US$ 200/per household for income diversification and eventually build resilience at household level. The livelihoods end-line impact evaluation findings indicate that the interventions have achieved one of their key intermediate objectives – encouraging an supporting accumulation of assets in the livelihood pathway selected by beneficiaries. The size of livestock holdings, both in Tropical Livestock Unit (TLU) market value terms, grew due to the program The public works (PW) sub-projects implemented under this component has significantly contributed to restoration of the natural resource base. Over the y PW program also contributed hugely to Climate Change mitigation. All five Public Works Impact Assessments (PWIAs) conducted to date estimate that ar combined with natural resource management under the PSNP has introduced significant carbon sequestration in treated areas, which typically amount to 400,000 Hectares/annum. Analyses of soil samples from these PSNP PW sites have not only confirmed this, but also have identified up to 300% increase in sequestration rates, together with markedly improved soil fer addition, the 2019 PWIA found that the ten watersheds/rangeland areas sampled were sequestering 183,000 tons CO2/Anum as a result of the PSNP, in program covering a total of around 12,000 watersheds. Component 3: This component provided institutional support to Government of Ethiopia to improve overall program management. Through this support th monitoring and supervision capacity of implementers at different levels has improved. 6/21/2022 Page 2 of 11 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report ET Productive Safety Nets Project 4 (PSNP 4) (P146883) Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance -- €High €High Macroeconomic -- €Moderate €Moderate Sector Strategies and Policies -- €Moderate €Moderate Technical Design of Project or Program -- €Moderate €Moderate Institutional Capacity for Implementation and -- €Moderate €Moderate Sustainability Fiduciary -- €Substantial €Substantial Environment and Social -- €Substantial €Substantial Stakeholders -- €Substantial €Substantial Other -- -- -- Overall -- €Substantial €Substantial Results PDO Indicators by Objectives / Outcomes Increased access to SN & DRM systems, complimentary LH services & nutrition for f/insecure HH IN01145362 ►Direct project beneficiaries (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 7,200,000.00 7,997,218.00 7,997,218.00 8,300,000.00 Date 01-Jul-2015 20-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Jun-2022 IN01145363 €Female beneficiaries (Percentage, Custom Supplement) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 50.00 52.00 52.00 50.00 IN01145364 ►Beneficiaries of Safety Nets programs (number) (Number, Corporate) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 6/21/2022 Page 3 of 11 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report ET Productive Safety Nets Project 4 (PSNP 4) (P146883) Value 7,200,000.00 7,997,218.00 7,997,218.00 8,300,000.00 Date 01-Jul-2015 20-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Jun-2022 IN01145365 €Beneficiaries of Safety Nets programs - Other cash transfers programs (number) (Number, Custom Breakdown) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 7,200,000.00 7,997,218.00 7,997,218.00 8,300,000.00 Date 01-Jul-2015 20-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Jun-2022 IN01145476 €Beneficiaries of Safety Nets programs - Female (number) (Number, Custom Breakdown) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 3,600,000.00 4,131,994.00 4,131,994.00 4,150,000.00 Date 01-Jul-2015 20-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Jun-2022 IN01145477 ►Average number of months of household food insecurity (Months, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 3.20 2.45 2.45 2.00 Date 01-Jul-2015 20-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Jun-2022 The indicator value is calculated based on a weighted average (75% Highlands/25% Lowlands). Comments: The Highlands food gap for PSNP households was 2.6 months and 2 months for the lowlands. IN01145478 ►% increase in average value of household assets (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 13.38 6.50 30.00 Date 01-Jul-2015 31-Dec-2019 31-May-2022 30-Jun-2022 Lowlands: Afar 5% and Somali 8%, about half of the sample is in each region. Therefore the average increase is calculated at 6.5%. Highlands: 0.5% for livestock assets. Other assets not reported. Comments: In previous reports we calculated the increase as a weighted average (75% Highlands/ 25% Lowlands). However, since data has not been reported for highlands, we are only reporting lowlands in here. IN01145479 ►% of clients who receive community-based nutrition counseling services (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 6/21/2022 Page 4 of 11 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report ET Productive Safety Nets Project 4 (PSNP 4) (P146883) Value 40.00 84.00 84.00 80.00 Date 01-Jul-2015 20-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Jun-2022 Source: 2018 Joint PWLH Review. The value of this indicator is based on a sample of 28 woredas representing 8 percent of the total PSNP woredas. The indicator measures access of client households to community-based nutrition (CBN) services and Comments: behavioral change communication (BCC). The BCC implementation is progressing slow: currently it is implemented in 80 woredas of the 349 woredas, due to financing constraints. The updated indicator in the 2019 Joint PWLH Review is currently in the process of being finalized and validated by the federal government. No change since the previous report IN01145480 ►Improved early warning triggers and response mechanisms agreed and functional (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No No No Yes Date 01-Jul-2015 20-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Jun-2022 An assessment on early warning triggers has been finalized which will help to identify improved early Comments: warning triggers. But it will take time until the client operationalizes it IN01145481 ►% of PSNP woredas where MIS and single registry is operational (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 75.00 Date 01-Jul-2015 20-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Jun-2022 MIS development is progressing well and as of January 2020, the MIS phase 1 was planned to be finalized in June 2020 rolled-out in a phased approach, based on the completion of the PSNP BHH Registry. However due to the recent COVID Crisis, plans to roll out the MIS within the planned timeframe is being reassessed. Comments: The PSNP BHH Registry- 7 firms were contracted in January 2020 to carry out the primary data collection activity for 12 of the 14 clusters. Communication on the registry data collection started cascading from regions to woredas in January 2020 and trainings on the survey software and survey instruments tookplace in February 2020. Unfortunately due to the COVID-19 crisis, data collection activities have been put on hold until further notice. Intermediate Results Indicators by Components Social Protection and Disaster Risk Management Systems IN01145482 ►Time taken from issuing a drought warning to identifying and agreeing number of people in need (Days, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 180.00 100.00 100.00 60.00 6/21/2022 Page 5 of 11 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report ET Productive Safety Nets Project 4 (PSNP 4) (P146883) Date 01-Jul-2015 20-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Jun-2022 This is estimated to be approximately 110 days for food transfers, and 90 days for cash. Currently there is no formal As of December 2019, there was no updated data available by the counterpart for this indicator. Comments: IN01145485 ►% of kebeles where poverty index is used to complement community targeting (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 75.00 Date 01-Jul-2015 20-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Jun-2022 Currently poverty indexes are not being used to complement community targeting. A proxy means test is currently be entire program, and will be integrated as part of the MIS once it is rolled out, to verify the percentage of beneficiaries Comments: IN01145488 ►% of clients receiving regular payments within the agreed time frame (20 days for cash and 30 days for food) (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 60.00 59.50 59.50 90.00 Date 01-Jul-2015 20-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Jun-2022 January-February 2020. Cash: 71% Food: 81% For the Q1 of EFY 2012: Cash: 35% Food: No food transfer Key challenges for delays in cash payments in the first quarter were due to: 1. Reshuffling of staff specially Afar and Comments: Somali 2. Instability problem in certain parts of the country 3. Limited bank liquidity and cash holding capacity in lowlands 4. Low level of commitment between regions and weredas to implement the agreed actions developed by the FSCD 5. Poor coordination between BoLSA and regional Food security in Afar resulted in a delay of cash transfer to weredas. IN01145490 ►% of clients reporting that they can provide adequate meals for their family for 12 months a year (male/female) (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 44.41 38.80 50.00 Date 01-Jul-2015 20-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Jun-2022 6/21/2022 Page 6 of 11 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report ET Productive Safety Nets Project 4 (PSNP 4) (P146883) Lowlands: 38.8% Highlands: not reported In previous reports we calculated the increase as a weighted average (75% Highlands/ 25% Lowlands). However, sin reported for highlands, we are only reporting lowlands in here. Comments: IN01145492 ►% of transfers received that has a value of at least 15 kgs of cereals and 4 kgs of pulses or its cash equivalent (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 70.00 Date 01-Jul-2015 20-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Jun-2022 Data source: Dec. 2019 Consumer Price Index data from CSA In EFY 2012 the wage rate was increased by 16% on average Data source: June 2020 Consumer Price Index data from CSA In EFY 2012 the wage rate was increased by 16% on average Based on analysis of CPI data from CSA, despite the wage rate adjustments, none of the transfers can Comments: purchase a full 15kg of cereals with the existing wage rate. The existing wage can purchase in average about 9.4 kg of cereals. IN01145494 ►% of clients receiving contingency resources within 60 days of identification of need (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 85.00 85.00 75.00 Date 01-Jul-2015 20-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Jun-2022 There is no update after December 2019 Comments: Productive safety nets and links to livelihoods services IN01145483 ►% of clients that feel PW sub-projects reflect their needs (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 75.00 54.00 53.00 90.00 Date 01-Jul-2015 20-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Jun-2022 Source: IFPRI Endline Performance Evaluation Comments: 6/21/2022 Page 7 of 11 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report ET Productive Safety Nets Project 4 (PSNP 4) (P146883) Proxy Indicator Used: % clients reporting the building of the PW infrastructure benefited them IN01145486 ►% of PW sub-projects selected and implemented following GOE's Community-based Participatory Watershed Management Guidelines or Rangeland Management Guidelines (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 75.00 84.50 84.50 90.00 Date 01-Jul-2015 20-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Jun-2022 Source: FSCD Report Comments: IN01145489 ►% of client households reporting that their livelihoods have benefitted from public work created assets (male/female) (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 20.00 61.65 38.00 50.00 Date 01-Jul-2015 20-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Jun-2022 Source: IFPRI PSNP 4 Midline Survey 2018 Source: IFPRI Endline Performance evaluation Comments: Proxy Indicator used: % clients reporting the PW project was productive for the community IN01145491 ►% of PSNP HHs reporting new income source as a result of program support (male/female) (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 1.40 1.40 30.00 Date 31-May-2016 20-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Jun-2022 There is currently no information on this indicator. Comments: IN01145493 ►% of HHs that save regularly (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 67.50 67.50 50.00 Date 01-Jul-2015 20-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Jun-2022 Comments: Source: EFY 2012 Q2 Progress Report. Savings declined from EFY 2011 Q2 due to the following: (i) Income irregularity between July-September which resulted in clients dropping out of the savings schemes; (ii) Limited loan disbursement from MFI as a result of the low level of compulsary savings mobilization, which implied that a smaller number of livelihood clients saved in the first quarter compared to the end of the previous fiscal year (June EFY 2011). . 6/21/2022 Page 8 of 11 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report ET Productive Safety Nets Project 4 (PSNP 4) (P146883) IN01145495 ►% of clients with business plans developed (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 72.66 72.66 90.00 Date 01-Jul-2015 20-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Jun-2022 Source: EFY 2012 FSCD 2nd Quarter Report Comments: IN01145496 ►% of client HHs receiving livelihoods transfers (cumulative) (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 11.61 11.61 27.00 Date 30-Jun-2015 20-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Jun-2022 55,692 client households of an estimated 1,135,065 households. Comments: Budget for livelihoods transfer has yet to be disbursed to clients for EFY 2012.. IN01145497 ►% of clients receiving wage employment related skills training (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 16.41 16.41 30.00 Date 01-Jul-2015 20-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Jun-2022 Source: EFY 2012 Q2 Report Note that between July 2018-June 2019 (EFY 2011), cumulative employment skills training was 165,984; Between July-Dec 2019 (EFY 2012) = this increased by 10, 719 clients to a cumulative total of 176,703 Comments: clients. Institutional Capacity Building and Project Management Support IN01145484 ►% of PSNP woredas meeting minimum PSNP staffing standards (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 80.00 14.29 14.29 90.00 Date 01-Jul-2015 20-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Jun-2022 Source: National Spot Checks The decline in this indicator is due to a change in the data source used. Previously this indicator was Comments: being tracked to different sources that could not be updated regularly. As of December 2019, National Spot Checks have been introduced which aims to measure this indicator based on a sample of woredas. This indicator is based on a sample of 26 woredas across all 8 regions. It was assessed based on the PIM 6/21/2022 Page 9 of 11 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report ET Productive Safety Nets Project 4 (PSNP 4) (P146883) requirements of 1 cashier & 1 accountant per 25,000 clients + 1 capacity development officer at Woreda level; IN01145487 ►% of clients that report they are aware of program objectives and entitlements (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 98.94 30.00 70.00 Date 01-Jul-2015 20-Dec-2021 31-May-2022 30-Jun-2022 Source: IFPRI Endline Performance Evaluation Note that this indicator was calculated based on the following questions, and therefore does not reflect client knowledge of program objectives and entitlements. Q1. Have you heard about the Productive Safety Net Programme 4 (PSNP)? Q2. We would like to be sure of your answer. The PSNP is the Government of Ethiopia’s rural safety net for food insecure households. It provides cash and/or food transfers to these households. Even if you do Comments: not know it by name, are you aware of such a programme? For the endline, IFPRI asked respondents their knowledge of the maximum days a person can work per month, the maximun wait for cash and food payments and the daily wage if paid in food. Households that reported knowing this information represented: 30%, 4%, 10% and 12%, respectively. In here we are reporting knowleged of the number of days a person can work. Performance-Based Conditions Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed P146883 IDA-55400 Effective USD 600.00 600.00 0.00 546.01 0.00 100% P146883 IDA-58770 Effective USD 100.00 100.00 0.00 96.27 0.00 100% P146883 IDA-60410 Effective USD 108.10 108.10 0.00 110.90 0.00 100% P146883 TF-A1426 Closed USD 94.86 94.86 0.00 94.86 0.00 100% P146883 TF-A3267 Closed USD 182.39 182.39 0.00 182.39 0.00 100% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P146883 IDA-55400 Effective 30-Sep-2014 31-Oct-2014 03-Feb-2015 31-Dec-2020 30-Jun-2022 P146883 IDA-58770 Effective 30-Jun-2016 01-Jul-2016 26-Jul-2016 31-Dec-2020 30-Jun-2022 P146883 IDA-60410 Effective 02-May-2017 09-May-2017 06-Jun-2017 31-Dec-2020 30-Jun-2022 6/21/2022 Page 10 of 11 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report ET Productive Safety Nets Project 4 (PSNP 4) (P146883) P146883 TF-A1426 Closed 30-Sep-2014 04-Dec-2015 04-Dec-2015 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2020 P146883 TF-A3267 Closed 30-Sep-2014 09-Dec-2016 09-Dec-2016 31-Dec-2020 31-Mar-2022 Cumulative Disbursements Restructuring History Level 2 Approved on 11-Dec-2020 ,Level 2 Approved on 25-Jun-2021 ,Level 2 Approved on 23-Dec-2021 Related Project(s) P158770-PRODUCTIVE SAFETY NET PROJECT (PSNP 4) ADDITIONAL FINANCING ,P163350-Productive Safety Net 4 Project Additional Financing 6/21/2022 Page 11 of 11