NOUAKCHOTT SUMMIT EDITION DECEMBER 2021 SA H E L E DUCAT I O N W H I T E PA P ER The Wealth of Today and PHOTO BY: ©OLIVER GIRARD/WORLD BANK Tomorrow PHOTO BY: © WORLD BANK 2     Summit edition S A H E L E D U C AT I O N W H I T E PA P E R THE WEALTH OF TODAY AND TOMORROW Contents Contents Executive Summary    9 Acknowledgments    13 Abbreviations    14 1. Education progress, challenges, and strengths to build on in the Sahel countries    15 1.1. What’s at stake: Education for development in the Sahel region    16 1.2. Progress: Enrollment and attainment gains, in a race between expanded access and surging populations    18 1.3. Challenges: Widespread learning poverty driven by low-quality education and continued enrollment gaps, with stark inequalities    19 1.4. The causes of poor outcomes: proximate and systemic factors in basic education    26 1.4.1. Learners inadequately prepared and supported to succeed    26 1.4.2. Teachers: Shortages, absences, and skill gaps    29 1.4.3. Learning resources are insufficient and not well-adapted: materials, curriculum, and instructional policies    32 1.4.4. School infrastructure: gaps in facilities and school climate    34 1.4.5. System management: Low capacity and incoherence that contribute to school-level challenges    35 1.4.6. Public financing: inadequate, inefficient, and at times inequitable spending    36 1.5. Beyond the system: fragility and conflict drive challenges and shape demands on education    40 1.6. Leveraging regional strengths to meet the Sahel’s education challenges    44 1.6.1. Regional cooperation offers promise for improving education systems more efficiently   44 1.6.2. Strength of community commitment to education    44 1.6.3. Possibilities created by non-state education providers    46 Recognizing and incorporating Koranic schools into the formal education system    47 1.6.4. National reform initiatives in the region    49 4   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition Contents 2. A new strategic approach for World Bank support— quick wins, sustained progress    51 2.1. Focused and ambitious goals catalyzed by political commitment    52 2.2. Game-changers: Policies and programs that can quickly make progress towards the three goals    54 2.2.1. Reducing learning poverty    54 Improving early childhood development    54 Efficiently expand access to decent primary schools    55 Improve effectiveness of early-grade teaching of literacy and other foundational skills    58 2.2.2. Increasing girls’ participation rates in secondary education    60 2.2.3. Increasing young adult literacy rates, with a focus on young women    64 2.2.4. M&E: A game-changer to support all the others    66 2.3. System strengthening: What needs to change for sustainable improvements    66 2.3.1. Strengthening pre-primary education to give children a head start    66 2.3.2. Keeping children in school and offering second chances for youth to build skills    67 2.3.3. Focusing on teachers to strengthen the backbone of the education system    69 2.3.4. Building infrastructure that enables and supports learning    71 2.3.5. Curriculum and assessment reforms at the heart of teaching and learning    73 2.3.6. Service delivery in FCV context    73 2.4. Beyond the system: financing and technology for education transformation    76 3. Conclusion    79 Bibliography   82 4. Annexes    90 Annex A. Figures    91 Annex B. Simulation Model    95 Enrollment Projections    95 Cost of universal primary education    97 Simulation model assumptions    99 Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   5 Contents List of Figures Figure 1: Rates of return on additional years of schooling by gender    17 Figure 2: Differences in earnings and wage employment probability associated with each level of education, by gender (across the Sahel G5)    17 Figure 3: Trends in Gross Enrollment Rate (GER) by level of education and gender (across the Sahel G5)    18 Figure 4: Trends in actual number enrolled in basic education, across the Sahel G5 (in millions)    18 Figure 5: Average education of the labor force by gender, for younger and older cohorts (across the Sahel G5)    19 Figure 6: Expected Years of Schooling and Learning-Adjusted Years of Schooling by gender    20 Figure 7: Language and mathematics proficiency level (%) in PASEC assessment    21 Figure 8: Net Enrollment Rate (NER) vs Gross Enrollment Rate (GER) by level of education and gender    22 Figure 9: Out-of-school and dropout rates by age and gender, across the Sahel G5    22 Figure 10: GER by level of education, gender, area, and wealth quintile (across the Sahel G5)    23 Figure 11: International comparison of Primary Completion Rate (PCR), and Gender Parity Index (GPI) at primary    24 Figure 12: Literacy rates of the labor force by gender, for younger and older cohorts (across the Sahel G5)    25 Figure 13: Youth activity (ages 15 to 24) across the Sahel G5    25 Figure 14: Proximate and systemic causes of poor education outcomes    26 Figure 15: Early marriage is correlated with lower secondary school enrollment rates    28 Figure 16: Impact of income-generating capacity of households on the marginal probability of 15- to 24-year-old youths’ work/ school outcomes    29 Figure 17: Reasons for being out of school, primary-school-age children (6-11 years)    29 Figure 18: Average gap in reading and mathematics scores between students who always or sometimes spoke the Language of Instruction at home and those who never did, PASEC 2019    33 Figure 19: Sahel overall spending on education (constant 2018 US dollars), and composition of Sahel overall spending on education    36 Figure 20: Education financing composition by country    37 Figure 21: Public expenditure on education as share of GDP and total public spending for Sahel countries    38 Figure 22: Public expenditure by education level for Sahel countries   39 Figure 23: Learning-adjusted years of schooling compared with spending per child, 2019    40 Figure 24: Population growth in G5 Sahel Countries    41 Figure 25: Student enrollment projections in primary education under the ‘Business as Usual’ scenario, million    41 Figure 26: Current number of refugees, asylum-seekers, refugee returnees, internally displaced people (IDP) and IDP returnees    42 Figure 27: Effect of COVID-19 on learning-adjusted years of schooling (LAYS) in the Sahel countries    43 Figure 28: Share of students enrolled in private schools in 2016    46 Figure 29: Strategic approach to investing in education in the Sahel    52 Figure 30: Delegation of school construction management to local communities is the most cost-effective approach to primary school construction    56 Figure 31: Key stakeholders must work in collaboration for community-managed construction    56 6   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition Contents Figure 32: Education as a share of total government budget and government spending as a share of GDP in low-income and lower- middle-income countries (%), 2017-19    77 Figure 33: Additional cost of primary education delivery for 2021-2025 and 2026-2030 (million $US)    77 Figure 34: Cost of primary education, as % of projected GDP    78 Figure A 1: GER by level of education, gender, area, and wealth quintile    91 Figure A 2: Trends in Gross Enrollment Rate (GER) by level of education and country    91 Figure A 3: Trends in actual number enrolled in basic education (in millions)    92 Figure A 4: Average education of the labor force, for younger and older cohorts by country    92 Figure A 5: Youth activity (ages 15 to 24) in Sahelian countries, both sexes    92 Figure A 6: Educational attainment of inactive youth (15-24)    93 Figure A 7: Area of residence of inactive youth (15-24)    93 Figure A 8: Reasons for dropping out of school after primary school completion (Girls)    93 Figure A 9: Reasons for dropping out of secondary school after starting it (Girls)    94 Figure A 10: Student enrollment projections in primary education under the ‘Business as Usual’ scenario, million    95 Figure A 11: Projected Gross Enrollment Rates in primary education under the ‘Business as Usual’ scenario    96 Figure A 12: Projected Net Enrollment Rates in primary education under alternative “Efficient” scenario, 2020-2030 (percent)    96 Figure A 13: Student enrollment projections in primary education under the “Efficient System” scenario, million    97 Figure A 14: Spending per primary education student as % of GDP per capita (2019 or the latest available data)    97 Figure A 15: Additional cost of primary education delivery for 2021-2025 and 2026-2030 (million $US)    98 Figure A 16: Cost of primary education, as % of projected GDP    98 Figure A 17: Cost of primary education, million $US    99 List of Tables Table 1: Repetition rate by level of education, gender, and area of residence 23 Table 2: Youth literacy rates 24 Table 3: Participation rates in pre-primary education across the Sahel 27 Table 4: Proportion of female teachers in primary education in the Sahel countries with averages for Sub-Saharan Africa and countries by income level 32 Table 5: Proportion of the population with the Language of Instruction (LOI) as their first language 33 Table 6: Linguistic diversity in the Sahel countries 34 Table 7: Government education financing per student in 2019 40 Table 8: Distance learning interventions in the Sahel countries 43 Table 9: Share of out-of-school children and youth (ages 6-15) reported as enrolled in informal Koranic schools across the Sahel 48 Table 10: Benefits from ending child marriage 61 Table 11: World Bank financing of education in the Sahel 76 Table A1: Cost of primary education under alternative ‘Efficient’ scenario, 2020-2030 98 Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   7 8   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow EXECUTIVE SUMMARY PHOTO BY: © WORLD BANK Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   9 Executive Summary Nous savons ce que nous souhaitons : que tous les enfants aillent à l’école, que tous terminent leur éducation de base avec un socle commun, que leur éducation apporte des bénéfices individuels et collectifs, que l’apprentissage contribue à une masse critique capable de transformer l’économie…Toutes les mêmes questions se sont posées depuis l’Indépendance : accès, qualité, dualité du système - défis persistants - comment aller vers le changement en identifiant des points d’ancrage ? Expert Panel Member, 2021 Good education for all is the key to a better long-term fu- Many factors have kept education from fulfilling its poten- ture for the Sahel region. Education improves employability tial—not just poor conditions in schools and classrooms, and incomes, narrows gender gaps, lifts families out of pov- but also less visible system-level problems and soci- erty, strengthens institutions, and yields benefits that echo to ety-wide barriers that go beyond the education sector. the next generation. • At the societal level, the Sahel region is burdened by The good news is that the region has taken the important high levels of extreme poverty, population growth, first steps toward building this future. Many more children conflict, and climate change, further exacerbated by have been able to access education over the past 15 years: the COVID-19 crisis. Some social norms, particularly enrollment in the region has nearly doubled in primary ed- around girls and education, also persist in reducing ucation and tripled in secondary education. And govern- access and learning. All of this means that educators ments have launched numerous initiatives and announced work in some of the world’s toughest conditions for high-level commitments in support of education. teaching and learning. • At the school and community level, many barriers di- Still, many children remain out of school, and those who rectly hamper children’s learning. First, deficiencies are in school learn far less than they should. Of the region’s in early childhood development leave most children primary-school-age children, 40 percent are out of school. unprepared for learning and trapped in an intergener- Furthermore, the region’s learning poverty rate is 88 per- ational cycle of low human capital. Shortages in both cent—meaning that only 12 percent of children are enrolled teaching and learning inputs, as well as inaccessible in school and able to read and comprehend an age-appro- and inadequate school infrastructure, further con- priate passage by late primary age. Access is lower at other strain access and learning. levels of education: enrollment is below 56 percent in lower • And education systems largely fail to support efforts at secondary throughout the Sahel G5 and between 2 and 10 improvement in schools. Management capacity in the percent in pre-primary and tertiary. All these contributing system is low, due to a lack of information and politi- factors result in low education attainment in the Sahel re- cization of leadership, and policies and programs lack gion and therefore low productivity. In Niger, for example, the coherence needed for them to complement each 72 percent of current working-age adults have no education other. at all. In every Sahel country, fewer than 50 percent of adult females are literate, compared with 59 percent in Sub-Saha- While a lack of money is not the root of all these problems, ran Africa as a whole and 80 percent in low- and middle-in- the limited and inefficiently spent budget undermines ef- come countries. This figure drops to 23 percent for females forts to solve them. Only about 3 percent of GDP in the re- living in the Sahel rural areas. Even among the youngest gion is spent on education, below the 4 percent in Sub-Sa- segment of the labor force—youth aged 15-24, reading and haran Africa, and the 6 percent international aspirational writing performance in the Sahel is relatively low, with liter- benchmark. Moreover, although foundations are acquired acy rates ranging from 45 to 66 percent, while the average in primary school, most Sahel G5 countries spend less than in Sub-Saharan Africa is 77 percent. Additionally, the poor- 50 percent of the total on primary education. More critically, est children and youth, and those affected by conflict, who combined schooling and learning indicators reveal that all most need a good education to have a chance in life, suffer the Sahel G5 underperforms relative to what current public the most from failings in education access and quality. The spending on education can achieve. Furthermore, political upper secondary enrollment rate is only 5 percent for the commitment to quality education is not sustained or inter- poorest rural girls, versus 100 percent for urban boys in the nalized by education ministry staff, and mostly focused on wealthiest quintile. strengthening elite education. 10   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition Executive Summary PHOTO BY: © © 2017 DORTE VERNER/ WORLD BANK STRATEGIC APPROACH TO EDUCATION IN THE SAHEL Today 2025 2030 Game-changers for quick progress and building momentum Support a resilient recovery by advancing on critial education goals by 2025 Medium-term policies and investments for sustainability Invest in system strengthening for continued progress for 2030 and beyond Basis for interventions: • Scale what works, focus on highest priorities for equitable growth • Informed by global evidence, regional experiences, and most promising old and new technologies But there are many reasons for hope. Communities are The region can build on these strengths with the right playing a key role in creating and improving schools, and in strategy—one that starts with a limited set of game-chang- a region with low government capacity, their involvement ers that can achieve progress in the highest-priority ar- can strengthen the quality of services. Similarly, public-pri- eas. The region faces too many education challenges to give vate partnerships can extend the reach of the state, in a re- them all equal priority. Instead, a program that prioritizes gion where religious and secular private providers already short- and medium-term game-changers, combined with educate large shares of the children. Experiences in the policies for long-term system strengthening, can make mea- region suggest that formalizing informal schools and incor- surable improvement in equitable schooling and learning in porating academic subjects can make it possible to reach the next 3 to 5 years. Despite all the pain it has caused, the the many out-of-school children and youth in the Sahel who pandemic creates an opening for progress: the disruption enroll in informal Koranic schools. Another strength is re- gives countries a chance to ask whether they really want gional cooperation, which can support work on common to return to the inadequate and inequitable schooling and problems. learning of the pre-”COVID-19 times. The answer must be no. Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   11 Executive Summary The Bank’s strategy in the Sahel will focus on helping coun- be on system strengthening, with effective support provid- tries use game-changer interventions to achieve three ed to learners and teachers, well-designed revisions made critical targets: to learning resources, and enhancements made to school management and environment. Through all these reforms, • Cut learning poverty through immediate and con- keeping the focus on better outcomes for all children and certed action to improve early childhood development, youth—and making decisions accordingly—will help in- expand access to decent primary school, and improve crease efficiency of spending and make better use of scarce the effectiveness of early grade teaching. Target: By resources. 2030, ensure that 10.2 million more children from the Sahel G5 are in school and able to read. Retaining children and youth already in the system and • Increase girls’ education through a combination providing second-chance programs to those who are not of supply- and demand-side interventions, such as is also crucial to fulfill the potential of education in the Sahel. public-private partnerships to expand schooling and For highest impact, retention policies should begin before scholarships for girls, as well as service-delivery inno- secondary school and remediation programs be flexible and vations to improve quality and foster the recovery from closely linked to the formal education system. COVID-19 closures. Target: By 2030, enroll 2.1 million more girls in secondary school. Education is the only real path forward for the region—and • Raise the young adult literacy rate, with a focus this is a good thing. Around the world, societies that have on young women, through programs tailored to the built their development on universal, equitable high-quality needs and motivations of adult learners. Target: By education—starting with ensuring that all children get the 2030, ensure that 13.4 million more young adults, of foundational learning they need—are the ones that have which 6.5 million are female, become literate. managed to sustain development over decades needed to escape poverty. Countries must choose their own strategies Achieving these ambitious goals requires more than good for following this path, so this White Paper is intended only policies and programs; countries also need high-level to spark and inform that urgently needed dialogue on how political commitment, accompanied by better monitor- to move forward. Sahel countries are adding nearly 1 million ing and evaluation, but also deeper involvement from school-age children per year and, at that pace of histori- communities, all tailored to the challenging conditions in cal improvement, the region will not attain even the goal of the Sahel. As the current education budget is limited, one universal primary enrollment until at least 2045. That must major sign of commitment should be an increase in public change, and it will. And as countries decide to move forward financing for education. Then to support and sustain the decisively to claim the future that all their children and youth short-term gains, over the medium term the focus should deserve, the World Bank stands ready to support them. 12   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition Acknowledgments The Sahel Education White Paper was prepared by a team led by Hamoud Abdel Wedoud Kamil (Se- nior Education Specialist, HAWE2), Melissa Ann Adelman (Senior Economist, HAWE2), and Halsey Rogers (Lead Economist, HEDDR). The core team consisted of Shyam Srinivasan (Young Profes- sional, HAWE2), Setou Diarra (Consultant, HAWE2), Fatim Lahonri Diabagate (Consultant, HAWE2), Mahugnon Stanislas Cedric Deguenonvo (Consultant, HAWE2), and Jason Allen Weaver (Senior Economist, HAWE2). The report was prepared under the overall guidance of Dena Ringold (Region- al Director, HAWDR) and Meskerem Mulatu (Practice Manager, HAWE2). Special thanks to Ous- mane Diagana (Vice President, AFWVP), Mamta Murthi (Vice President, GGHVP), Jaime Saavedra (Global Director, HEDDR), and Amit Dar (Regional Director, HAEDR) for their wisdom and guidance. The extended team included Nathan Belete, Clara Ana de Sousa, Elisabeth Huybens, Albert Zeu- fack, Jeffrey Waite, Amina Denboba, Assane Dieng, Stanislas Honkuy, Cristelle Kouamé, Boubakar Lompo, Pamela Mulet, Zacharie Ngueng, Harisoa Rasolonjatovo, Djiby Thiam, Rebekka Grun, Chris- tophe Rockmore, Waly Wane, Cristina Panasco Santos, Joëlle Dehasse, Maimouna Fam, Kofi Nou- vé, Rasit Pertev, Roya Vakil, Stephan Massing, Asbjorn Wee, Khadijetou Cissé, Thiane Dia, Seimane Diouf, Khady Fall Lo, Aissata Ngam, Bintou Sogodogo, Sidi Traoré, Enó Isong, Nayé Bathily, Christelle Chapoy, and Habibatou Gologo. The team thanks peer reviewers David Evans, Deon Filmer, Scherezad Latif, Christophe Lemiere, and Atou Seck for their careful review and suggestions. The team is also grateful for inputs and comments from Joao Pedro Azevedo, Dmitry Chugunov, Soukeyna Kane, Rebecca Lacroix, Sergio Venegas Marin, Marianne Joy Anacleto Vital, Yi Ning Wang, Quentin Wodon, and many other colleagues. The team benefited greatly from the guidance it received from an External Advisory Panel led by Mamadou Ndoye, Etienne Baranshamje, Alassane Diawara, and Therese Rukingama Niyonzima, with contributions from Birger Fredriksen. Panel members included Mahamane Tassiou Abouba- kar, Cissé Backary, Messaouda Min Baham, Moussa Kadam Djidengar Bassae, Karifa Bayo, Ngar- toide Blaise, Boubacar Bocoum, Amadou Diawara, El Khalil Ould Ennahoui, Mahamat Seid Farah, Ba Fatimata, Souleymane Goundiam, Madame Halimatou Hima, Kader Kaneye, Saadana Mint Khey- tour, Danda Laouali, Mahamat G. Louani, Baro Mamadou, Assétou Founé Samake Migan, Zeidane Mohamed, Perside Naimo Beguy Nguedah, Stanislas Ouaro, Afsata Pare, Kenekouo Dit Barthélémy Togo, Nebghouha Mint Mohamed Vall, and Maiguizo Rakiatou Zada. The team is also grateful to the many development partners whose views and inputs helped shape this White Paper, especially during the in-country consultations. Most importantly, the team thanks the dedicated colleagues from the governments of Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger who participated in consultations and who are taking for- ward the mission of ensuring that all children and youth in the Sahel region have a brighter future. The team apologizes to any individuals or organizations inadvertently omitted from this list and expresses its gratitude to all who contributed to this White Paper, including those whose names may not appear here. Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   13 Abbreviations Abbreviations ABC Alphabétisation de Base par Cellulaire LEAP Liberian Education Advancement Program ASP Adaptive Social Protection LoI Language of instruction AWC Anganwadi centers NGO Nongovernmental organization AWW Anganwadi worker PASEC Programme for the Analysis of Education BEUPA Uganda’s Basic Education for Urban Poverty Systems (Programme d’analyse des sys- Areas tèmes éducatifs de la CONFEMEN) BRIGHT Burkinabe Response to Improve Girls’ PCR Primary Completion Rate Chances to Succeed PPP Public-private partnership CENSAD Community of Sahel–Saharan States RCT Randomized controlled trial CONFEMEN Conférence des ministres de l’Education des SASP Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program Etats et gouvernements de la Francophonie SBCC Social and behavior change communica- CTs Community teachers tions ECB Basic Community School SDI Service Delivery Indicators ECD Early Childhood Development SRGBV School-Related Gender-Based Violence ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States SSA Sub-Saharan Africa EHCVM Enquête Harmonisée sur les Conditions de SSA/P Stratégie de Scolarisation Accélérée avec la Vie des Ménages Passerelle EPCV Enquête Permanente sur les Conditions de STR Student-teacher ratio Vie des ménages SWEDD Sahel Women’s Empowerment and Demo- FCV Fragility, Conflict and Violence graphic Dividend GBV Gender-based violence TARL Teaching at the Right Level GDP Gross Domestic Product TLM Teaching and learning materials GER Gross Enrollment Rate TVET Technical and Vocational Education and GPE Global Partnership for Education Training GPI Gender Parity Index UN United Nations HCI Human Capital Index UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific, and IAI Interactive Audio Instruction Cultural Organization ICDS Integrated Childhood Development Scheme UNICEF United Nations Children’s Emergency Fund IMF International Monetary Fund US United States JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency WAEMU West African Economic and Monetary Union LAYS Learning-adjusted years of schooling WDR World Development Report 14   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition 1. EDUCATION PROGRESS, PHOTO BY: © VINCENT TREMEAU / WORLD BANK CHALLENGES, AND STRENGTHS TO BUILD ON IN THE SAHEL COUNTRIES Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   15 Education progress, challenges, and strengths to build on in the Sahel countries 1.1. What’s at stake: Education for she enjoyed complete education and full health. This is lower development in the Sahel region than the averages for the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region (40 percent), Western & Central Africa (38 percent), and The geographically vast, mostly landlocked, and semi-arid low-income countries (37 percent). Significant and effective countries of Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Ni- investment in the Sahel’s people—through education, health, ger face a common set of development challenges within and social protection programs—is critical to build human the broader diversity of Western & Central Africa. Devel- capital, spark a demographic transition, and help spur the opment challenges in the Sahel region remain huge; they development that the region urgently needs. include high levels of poverty, low urbanization, high unpro- ductive subsistence agriculture, obstructive business envi- Education brings tremendous benefits to individuals and ronment, poor logistic and transport infrastructures that societies—benefits that are especially needed in fragile prevent further regional integration, low productivity and low and conflict-affected settings. For individuals, education quality of public services, weak governance, and low human attainment is associated with higher productivity and earn- capital. Compounding the challenges are major shocks that ings, lower poverty rates, better health outcomes, and higher are eroding fragile economic progress. The global COVID-19 civic engagement. For countries, education contributes to in- pandemic reduced 2020 GDP per capita in all five countries, novation and growth, better-functioning institutions, greater and while growth is expected to resume in 2021, the damage intergenerational social mobility, higher levels of social trust, of deeper poverty and more constrained fiscal positions will and a lower likelihood of conflict.4 Beyond these benefits, be felt for some time. Moreover, climate change threatens education can accelerate progress by advancing economic the livelihoods of large segments of the Sahel’s population, development, strengthening humanitarian action, contribut- with average temperatures rising 1.5 times faster than the ing to security and state-building, and mitigating impacts of global average and extreme weather events increasing.1 disasters.5 The role of education in post-conflict reconstruc- tion has also been researched and discussed widely.6 Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, and Niger are among the poor- est and most fragile countries in the world. These four Education is a key determinant of livelihoods in the Sahel, countries are in the bottom 10 of Western & Central Africa in as it is globally. Despite weaknesses in education quali- terms of 2019 GDP per capita and in the bottom 25 countries ty, higher levels of education are associated with higher globally.2 Moreover, they are all experiencing medium-inten- earnings, increased probability of wage employment, and sity conflicts that, in addition to their direct costs in lives and increased likelihood of being employed in more productive destruction, are forcing displacement, reducing food se- sectors. Each additional year of schooling is associated with curity, and destabilizing governance.3 Despite government increases in earnings that range from a low of 7 percent in efforts, the incidence and severity of conflict is increasing Chad to a high of 15 percent in Burkina Faso and Niger (Fig- throughout the region, with limited signs of abating in the ure 1). On average, relative to individuals with no formal ed- short to medium term. ucation or incomplete primary education, those with attain- ment ranging from completed primary education through All five Sahel countries have yet to effectively tap one of postsecondary education are much more likely to be in wage their most abundant resources—their people—for growth employment and enjoy a substantial earnings premium (Fig- and development. Home to about 19 percent of Western & ure 2). An additional year of education also increases the Central Africa’s population (84M out of 450M people), these probability of working in sectors with higher returns (indus- five countries are all in the top 10 regionally in terms of annual try and services). Education can also narrow gender gaps in population growth (over 3 percent). Poor families are limited earnings: for the same amount of education, women have a in their capacity to adequately invest in all their children, and higher rate of return than men across the five countries. this rapid growth places extreme pressures on already weak public services. As a result, the Sahel has some of the lowest Education matters for all, but even more so for girls and human development outcomes within Western & Central Af- women, and for intergenerational progress. Wodon et al rica and the world. As measured by the Human Capital Index (2018) estimate that each additional year of secondary edu- (HCI), a child born in the Sahel region today will only be 34 cation is associated with lower risks of marrying and having percent as productive when she grows up as she could be if a child before age 18 by about 7 percentage points on aver- 1 Ehui and Sarraf (2021). 4 World Bank (2018); Rohner and Saia (2019). 2 World Development Indicators, 2021. 5 Winthrop and Matsui (2013). 3 World Bank (2021a). 6 Buckland (2005). 16   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition Education progress, challenges, and strengths to build on in the Sahel countries Figure 1: Rates of return on additional years of schooling by gender National Male Female 15% 15% 14% 12% 11% 12% 11% 10% 11% 10% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% Chad Mali Mauritania Burkina Faso Niger Source: Authors’ estimates based on EHCVM 2018 for Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, and Niger; and EPCV 2019 for Mauritania. Note: This includes all workers with positive value of wage (including wages for salaried employees, bonuses, indemnities, and in-kind payments for main and secondary jobs). The Mincer regression model was used to estimate earning increases associated with additional years of education. Figure 2: Differences in earnings and wage employment probability associated with each level of education, by gender (across the Sahel G5) Completed primary/ incomplete lower secondary 304% 301% Completed lower secondary/ incomplete upper secondary 284% 270% 280% Completed upper secondary Post secondary 220% 222% 214% 180% 170% 158% 168% 146% 126% 110% 101% 89% 86% 76% 66% 31% 33% 22% 15% Total Male Female Total Male Female Earnings premium Probability of wage employment Source: Authors’ estimates based on EHCVM 2018 for Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, and Niger; and EPCV 2019 for Mauritania. Note: Bars show the earnings premium and increase in wage employment probability for workers with each level of education, relative to those of workers with no formal education or incomplete primary education. age across developing countries. If universal secondary edu- educated societies are more civically engaged, enjoy greater cation were achieved in developing countries, child marriage trust and tolerance, and have better functioning institutions.8 could be virtually eliminated, total fertility could be reduced Moreover, growth built on human capital rather than natu- by up to one third, and young children’s health outcomes ral resources may lead to fewer incentives for conflict.9 For could be substantially improved.7 the Sahel, more and better education can reduce fragility by strengthening the social contract through provision of better Education also has the potential to contribute to promot- services and by equipping youth with skills so they can earn a ing peace, strengthening institutions, and more sustain- living and avoid violence.10 able growth. Globally, while causal evidence is limited, more 8 World Bank (2018). 9 World Bank (2018); de la Briere and others (2017); Acemoglu and Wolitzky (2011); Collier, Hoeffler, and Rohner (2009); Davies (2004). 7 Wodon et al (2018). 10 World Bank Group Strategy for Fragility, Conflict, and Violence 2020–2025. Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   17 Education progress, challenges, and strengths to build on in the Sahel countries Figure 3: Trends in Gross Enrollment Rate (GER) by level of education and gender (across the Sahel G5) 76% 2005 2018 75% 73% 49% 46% 43% 69% 76% 26% 21% 62% 20% 5% 5% 4% 6% 4% 3% 23% 27% 3% 11% 3% 3% 14% 2% 3% 18% 8% 1% Pre-primary Primary Lower Secondary Upper Secondary Tertiary Pre-primary Primary Lower Secondary Upper Secondary Tertiary Pre-primary Primary Lower Secondary Upper Secondary Tertiary Total Male Female Source: EdStats and authors’ estimates based on EHCVM 2018 for Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, and Niger; and EPCV 2019 for Mauritania. Note: The base year for the Pre-primary GER is 2010. The base year for Tertiary GER for Mali is 2008. 1.2. Progress: Enrollment and Figure 4: Trends in actual number enrolled in attainment gains, in a race between basic education, across the Sahel G5 (in millions) expanded access and surging Primary Lower secondary populations 10.8 Sahelian countries have nearly doubled primary and tri- pled secondary education enrollments over the past two decades, but rapid population growth has limited im- provements in access rates. Gross enrollment rates (GERs) 5.9 increased across almost all levels of education for the five 5.6 5.1 countries (Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger) altogether, between 2005 and 2018 (Figure 3). This substan- 3.6 3.4 tial increase is mainly driven by the expansion of girls’ access to education, which increased from 62 to 73 percent between 2.5 2005 and 2018. At the national level, the primary GER sub- 1.9 1.7 stantially increased in Burkina Faso, Niger, and to a lesser 1.1 0.7 0.4 extent in Mauritania (where the primary GER was already highest among the five), but only grew by one to two percent- 2005 2018 2005 2018 2005 2018 age points in Chad and Mali (Figure A2 in Annex). At the sec- Total Male Female ondary level, each of the five countries achieved double-digit Source: EdStats and authors’ estimates based on EHCVM 2018 for Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, and Niger; and EPCV 2019 for Mauritania. growth in its lower-secondary GER, and slightly lower growth in upper secondary. However, modest increases in enroll- ment rates mask incredible growth in the actual size of the education sector in the Sahel, due to these countries’ rapid increased from 23 percent to 43 percent over the same peri- population growth (discussed below). For instance, the Sahel od (20 percentage points increase), while the actual number average GER at the primary level increased from 69 to 75 per- enrolled in lower secondary has more than tripled between cent between 2005 and 2018, a 6 percentage-point increase. 2005 and 2018, from 1.1 million to 3.6 million (Figure 4). However, the actual number enrolled in primary increased from 5.9 million to 10.8 million (85 percent increase) over the Pre-primary and post-secondary participation have same period. Similarly, at the lower secondary level, the GER grown quickly but remain extremely concentrated among 18   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition Education progress, challenges, and strengths to build on in the Sahel countries the better-off. Both pre-primary and post-secondary GERs age population is disaggregated by gender, there are rela- remain at or below ten percent across the Sahel, although tively more young women (51 percent) than young men (39 they have in many cases increased by 50 to 100 percent percent) who have not received a formal education. This between 2005 and 2018 (Figure 3). At both these levels, ac- gender gap is much higher for the older cohort. In terms of cess is concentrated almost exclusively among urban, up- schooling completed, the youth cohort in the Sahel has on per-quartile households. For example, on average across the average 4.2 years of schooling, compared to 1.2 years for Sahel, the tertiary GER is 0 percent for rural men and women the older adult cohort. These measures indicate important in the bottom quintile, but 13 percent for urban, top-quintile progress in expanding education access and increasing women and 21 percent for their male counterparts. attainment over the last four decades, a significant accom- plishment given that the Sahel’s population more than tripled The educational attainment of the labor force is also grow- during that time. ing, though from a very low base. Figure 5 shows that, on average, 54 percent of the youth cohort (age 15-24) in the Sa- Signs of progress also show what is possible with politi- hel has received at least some formal primary education, far cal commitment. For example, in Burkina Faso, participa- higher than the 15 percent of older adults (age 55-64) with tory sector policy and high-level political commitment to any formal education. When the distribution of the working expanding and strengthening the education sector have been in place since the early 2000s, and are reflected in the country’s relatively high spending on education and learning Figure 5: Average education of the labor force by outcomes above what would be predicted based on GDP per gender, for younger and older cohorts (across the capita.11 In Niger, education was recently announced as a top Sahel G5) policy priority for the new administration, continuing a focus that has contributed to Niger being the only Sahel country to 100 1 2 2 2 0 significantly improve learning outcomes between 2014 and 1 1 1 2 1 4 1 1 1 2 2019.12 7 3 2 7 9 9 4 90 8 11 80 21 1.3. Challenges: Widespread learning 22 poverty driven by low-quality 27 70 education and continued enrollment gaps, with stark inequalities 60 19 19 Children living in Sahel countries complete far fewer 50 21 years of quality education than their peers in other re- 90 85 gions in the world. On average, a child born in the Sahel to- 40 79 day will be expected to complete about 6.1 years of schooling, compared to a global average of more than 11 years (Figure 30 6). However, when adjusted for learning, these 6.1 years are 51 reduced to the equivalent of about 3.4 years of high-quality 46 20 39 schooling, compared to a global average of 7.8 years. Overall, the expected years of schooling and learning-adjusted years 10 of schooling for boys are higher than for girls in the Sahel region. The learning-adjusted years of schooling range from 0 2.6 in Mali and Niger to 4.2 in Mauritania. Total Male Female Total Male Female Age 15-24 Age 55-64 Across the Sahel, an estimated 88 percent of 10-year-old No education Some Primary children are unable to read and understand an age-ap- Some Lower Secondary Some Upper Secondary TVET Tertiary Source: Authors’ estimates based on EHCVM 2018 for Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, and 11 Sahel Education White Paper, Consultation with External Experts, March 2021; World Development Indicators, 2021. Niger; and EPCV 2019 for Mauritania. 12 As measured by the Program for the Analysis of Education Systems or Pro- gramme d’Analyse des Systèmes Educatifs de la CONFEMEN (PASEC). Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   19 Education progress, challenges, and strengths to build on in the Sahel countries Figure 6: Expected Years of Schooling and Learning-Adjusted Years of Schooling by gender Total 7.80 SSA average Global average 11.3 Female 8.1 11.4 Male 7.8 11.3 Total 5.0 8.3 Female 4.6 8.3 Male 4.7 8.4 Total 3.4 6.1 Sahel average Female 3.2 5.9 Male 3.5 6.5 Total 4.2 7.7 Mauritania Female 4.4 7.9 Male 4.1 7.5 Total 4.5 7.0 Burkina Faso 4.5 Female 7.0 Male 4.6 7.0 Total 2.7 5.5 2.4 Niger Female 5.0 Male 2.9 5.9 Total 2.8 5.3 2.3 Chad Female 4.4 Male 3.4 6.2 Total 2.6 5.2 Learning-Adjusted Years of Schooling 2.4 Mali Female 4.9 Expected Years of Schooling Male 2.7 5.6 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 Source: Human Capital Index propriate text. This learning poverty rate varies only slight- Children in school receive low-quality education on av- ly across countries, from 75 percent in Burkina Faso to 95 erage and learning levels—where measured—are very percent in Mauritania, reflecting both low literacy levels of low. Only Burkina Faso, Chad, and Niger participated in the children in school as well as high shares of children out of 2019 wave of the PASEC international learning assessment. school.13 Without a strong foundation in literacy, children Results show that there is variation within the Sahel region, are unable to fully benefit from continued schooling and are but on average extremely low levels of learning occurring for left poorly equipped to become productive workers and en- children in school. The 2019 results show that only 22 per- gaged citizens. All five Sahel countries are among the top 20 cent of grade 6 students in Chad, and 30 percent in Niger, countries globally in terms of learning poverty rates, threat- reach the PASEC competency threshold in reading (Figure ening all development goals if not effectively addressed. 7). Results in Burkina Faso are significantly better, with 69 percent of grade 6 students reaching reading competency, compared to a PASEC average of 48 percent. However, the 13 Learning Poverty is defined as the proportion of children unable to read and PASEC competency threshold is below the global minimum understand a simple text by age 10. This indicator brings together schooling and learning indicators: it starts with the share of children who have not achieved mini- proficiency level for reading used in the SDG monitoring mum reading proficiency (as measured in schools) and adjusts it by the proportion of children who are out of school (and are therefore assumed not to read proficient- process—meaning that the share of children who attain the ly). In fact, learning poverty is particularly high in the region. On average in the Sahel basic competencies expected under the SDGs is even low- region, adjusting for the Out-of-School children, about 94 percent of children at late primary age are not proficient in reading and are thus learning-poor. er than these figures indicate. Mali and Mauritania have not 20   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition Education progress, challenges, and strengths to build on in the Sahel countries Figure 7: Language and mathematics proficiency level (%) in PASEC assessment Language proficiency level (%), Grade 6 2014 2019 PASEC av. 47 39 Niger 8 Girls 31 Chad 12 20 Burkina Faso 56 67 PASEC av. 43 40 Niger 9 30 Boys Chad 17 24 Burkina Faso 58 67 PASEC av. 45 40 Niger 8 30 Total Chad 15 22 Burkina Faso 57 67 Mathematics proficiency level (%), Grade 6 PASEC av. 42 31 Niger 6 22 Girls Chad 15 11 56 Burkina Faso 62 PASEC av. 43 31 Niger 8 23 Boys Chad 20 13 63 Burkina Faso 63 PASEC av. 41 31 Niger 8 22 Total Chad 19 12 59 Burkina Faso 63 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Source: Authors’ estimates based on PASEC 2014 and 2019. participated in a recent international student assessment, years old) in the Sahel, of whom about 3.8 million (45 per- and therefore lack data to assess learning against interna- cent) were out of school. All five Sahel countries are in the tional benchmarks. top 20 countries globally in terms of shares of children out of school.14 About one third of primary-age children across the Despite important progress in access, about 10.8 million Sahel have never attended formal schooling. children and adolescents (ages 6-15) remain out of school, due to most accessing education late and dropping out Those who do access schooling experience late starts, early, and many never participating at all. In 2018, there high rates of repetition, and early dropout. Fewer than 30 were an estimated 14.5 million primary-school-age children percent of 6-year-olds are in school, although 6 is the official (6–11 years old) in the Sahel, of whom about 7 million (48 per- starting age for primary across the Sahel. Repetition rates cent) were out of school. In each of the five countries, over are very high on average—10 percent in primary, 11 percent 40 percent of primary school-age children are out of school, in lower secondary, and 13 percent in upper secondary. Rep- with Burkina Faso having the lowest rate at 40.1 percent and etition rates are higher for girls and rural children (Table 1). Chad the highest at 49.5 percent. Similarly, there were an estimated 8.1 million lower-secondary-age-children (12-15 14 World Development Indicators, 2021. Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   21 Education progress, challenges, and strengths to build on in the Sahel countries Figure 8: Net Enrollment Rate (NER) vs Gross Enrollment Rate (GER) by level of education and gender 90% Net Enrollment Rate (NER) Gross Enrollment Rate (GER) 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Burkina Faso Chad Mali Mauritanie Niger Burkina Faso Chad Mali Mauritanie Niger Burkina Faso Chad Mali Mauritanie Niger Burkina Faso Chad Mali Mauritanie Niger Burkina Faso Chad Mali Mauritanie Niger Burkina Faso Chad Mali Mauritanie Niger Burkina Faso Chad Mali Mauritanie Niger Burkina Faso Chad Mali Mauritanie Niger Burkina Faso Chad Mali Mauritanie Niger Primary Lower Upper Primary Lower Upper Primary Lower Upper Secondary Secondary Secondary Secondary Secondary Secondary Total Male Female Source: Authors’ estimates based on EHCVM 2018 for Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, and Niger and EPCV 2019 for Mauritania. Figure 9: Out-of-school and dropout rates by age and gender, across the Sahel G5 80 Never a ended Dropped-out 70 5 5 4 60 5 4 5 50 13 16 11 2 15 2 3 3 5 12 40 3 4 6 12 3 4 8 4 3 4 6 8 4 8 30 64 63 66 49 48 50 20 40 38 41 37 38 36 34 33 35 37 34 33 34 36 35 35 34 37 32 31 32 30 29 31 10 0 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Total Male Female Source: Authors’ estimates, based on EHCVM 2018 for Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, and Niger and on EPCV 2019 for Mauritania. Figure 8 shows the GER and net enrollment rate (NER15)—a rate varies widely across countries at all levels of education. proxy for overage children by level of education. The figure For instance, the repetition rate at primary level ranges from shows a large gap between the GER and NER. For instance, a low of 5 percent in Niger to 20 percent in Chad (Table 1). the GER at the primary level in Mauritania is 77 percent com- Early dropout is also widespread. After age 11, participation pared to NER of only 55 percent. Interruptions in schooling rates steadily decline, such that over half of 15-year-olds are or repeating successive grade levels are contributing to this out of school (Figure 9). gap, creating barriers for children to complete the desired school level within the standard time frame. The repetition In each country, disproportionately more girls and eco- nomically disadvantaged children are out of school com- 15 The major disadvantage of the NER as an indicator is that it only accounts for pared to their better-off and urban counterparts. At every the education of those children who are within the official age-range for schooling, thus excluding all the children who enter the system either after or before the official age, more girls than boys are out of school, with the largest age. This can be accompanied by errors of measurement due to a lack of accuracy difference among 13- and 14-year-olds. Figure 10 shows the concerning the real ages of the pupils: in certain African countries, it is common practice to change the ages of children on the civil status register. stark enrollment disparities at every education level between 22   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition Education progress, challenges, and strengths to build on in the Sahel countries Table 1: Repetition rate by level of education, gender, and area of residence Gender Area Repetition rates Male Female Urban Rural Total Primary Burkina Faso 9.9 7.3 7.3 9.2 8.7 Chad 18.9 20.8 13.2 23.4 19.8 Mali 9.5 9.2 8.2 9.9 9.4 Mauritania 15.8 15.5 14.8 16.5 15.6 Niger 5.8 4.7 6.8 4.7 5.3 Lower secondary Burkina Faso 14.8 16.4 15.7 15.6 15.6 Chad 10.7 11.6 8.8 13.8 11.0 Mali 13.3 12.9 10.9 15.2 13.1 Mauritania 11.1 7.9 10.2 7.9 9.6 Niger 10.1 10.0 10.3 9.8 10.1 Upper secondary Burkina Faso 13.3 9.1 9.9 15.9 11.3 Chad 14.8 11.6 11.6 18.7 13.7 Mali 14.2 13.1 12.2 17.6 13.7 Mauritania 22.0 20.9 21.8 18.2 21.5 Niger 13.6 4.7 9.3 10.8 9.7 Source: Authors’ estimates, based on EHCVM 2018 for Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, and Niger and on EPCV 2019 for Mauritania. Figure 10: GER by level of education, gender, rural students from the bottom socioeconomic quintile and area, and wealth quintile (across the Sahel G5) urban students from the top. While the gross enrollment rate (GER) of top quintile urban boys hovers around 100 percent 114% from primary through upper secondary, it is under 10 per- 109% cent for the poorest, rural boys and girls. Even relatively well- 100% off girls are disadvantaged relative to their male peers, with 98% 91% top quintile, urban girls having a GER 40 percentage points lower than boys. These challenges are reflected in the Sahel’s relatively low rates of primary completion and lack of gender parity, 58% 60% particularly for Chad, Mali, and Niger. The average primary 54% completion rate (PCR) in the Sahel region is 61 percent and the average gender parity index (GPI) stands at 92 percent, slightly below the SSA averages of 63 percent and 95 per- cent (Figure 11). These rates vary widely within the Sahel, with 23% Chad, Mali, and Niger below the SSA averages and Chad 19% 21% near the bottom with a PCR of only 43 percent and a GPI of 13% 78 percent. In contrast, Burkina Faso is slightly above SSA 9% 5% 0.3% averages, with a PCR of 63 percent and a GPI of 98 percent. 0.2% Mauritania is near the top with a PCR of 82 percent and girls Primary Lower secondary Upper secondary Tertiary outperforming boys with a GPI of 106. Poorest, Rural, Girls Poorest, Rural, Boys Richest, Urban, Girls Richest, Urban, Boys The average literacy rate for working-age adults (age Source: Authors’ estimates based on EHCVM 2018 for Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, and Niger and EPCV 2014 for Mauritania. 15-64) in the Sahel is only around 42 percent, with sub- Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   23 Education progress, challenges, and strengths to build on in the Sahel countries Figure 11: International comparison of Primary Completion Rate (PCR), and Gender Parity Index (GPI) at primary Primary Completion Rate (PCR) 93 88 85 84 83 83 82 80 80 80 80 74 72 70 71 71 71 69 66 65 64 63 63 60 59 57 56 56 54 53 48 48 45 43 43 42 40 39 34 29 25 South Sudan Guinea-Bissau Liberia Uganda Ethiopia Mozambique Chad CAR Guinea Benin Malawi Burundi Rwanda Senegal Madagascar Mali Niger Angola SSA average Burkina Faso Sierra Leone Sudan Gambia, The DRC Eswatini Nigeria Gabon Ghana Zambia Cameroon Tanzania Togo Lesotho Congo, Rep. Mauritania STP Namibia Kenya Cote d'Ivoire Zimbabwe South Africa 112% Gender Parity Index (GPI) 109% 107% 106% 103% 103% 103% 102% 100% 101% 101% 101% 101% 99% 98% 99% 98% 97% 96% 97% 97% 96% 95% 95% 94% 94% 94% 94% 93% 93% 93% 92% 90% 91% 90% 87% 86% 82% 78% 78% 71% South Sudan Chad CAR Guinea Niger Angola Mali Cameroon Ethiopia Eswatini Cote d'Ivoire Mozambique Guinea-Bissau Benin DRC Sudan Nigeria Lesotho SSA average South Africa Togo Namibia STP Gabon Zimbabwe Burkina Faso Rwanda Liberia Kenya Madagascar Malawi Ghana Burundi Zambia Tanzania Uganda Sierra Leone Mauritania Congo, Rep. Gambia, The Senegal Source: Authors’ estimates based on EHCVM 2018 for Senegal and Education Statistics (EdStats) for the rest. stantial variation by gender and geographical location. Table 2: Youth literacy rates In other words, more than the half of adults—as well as about two-thirds of adult women—are illiterate, defined Youth Literacy rates, 15-24 years, Country both sexes as being unable to read or write in any language. Sahelian Burkina Faso 59 reading and writing performance are quite low by regional and global standards: in Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole, 59 Chad 45 percent of working-age adults are literate, and the figure is Mali 56 80 percent for low- and middle-income countries globally. Mauritania 66 Literacy rates in the region also vary substantially, ranging from 32 percent in Chad to more than 60 percent in Mau- Niger 46 ritania. Figure 12 shows the literacy rates among the youth SSA 77 and young adult (age 15–34) and the adult (age 15–64) pop- Source: Authors’ estimates based on EHCVM 2018 for Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, and ulations. On average, only 32 percent of adults (age 15-64) Niger; EPCV 2014 for Mauritania; and UNESCO UIS 2018 for SSA living in rural areas are literate, compared to 66 percent in urban areas. For women in rural areas, the situation is even worse: only 23 percent are literate. Unsurprisingly, for However, when compared to those of other countries in the region as a whole, the literacy rate is higher among the SSA, literacy rates in the Sahel are quite low among even younger cohort of the work force (age 15-34), at 49 percent. the youngest segment of the labor force—youth aged 15-24 24   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition Education progress, challenges, and strengths to build on in the Sahel countries Figure 12: Literacy rates of the labor force by Figure 13: Youth activity (ages 15 to 24) across gender, for younger and older cohorts (across the Sahel G5 the Sahel G5) 3.5% 90 81 80 75 70 66 Male 25% 35% 60 57 50 47 41 44% 40 Female 30 30 23 65% 20 27% 10 0 Rural Rural Urban Urban Rural Rural Urban Urban female male female male female male female male Study only Work only Study and work Neither study nor work Adult 15-64 Youth 15-34 Source: Authors’ estimates based on EHCVM 2018 for Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, and Source: Authors’ estimates based on EHCVM 2018 for Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, and Niger; and EPCV 2019 for Mauritania. Niger and EPCV 2014 for Mauritania (Table 2). The functional literacy rate—the ability to apply mance, likely across all sectors. Indeed, across the five Sahel literacy skills to tasks at work and in daily life—is likely to be countries, an average of 31 percent of firms report that an even lower. inadequately educated workforce is a major constraint to their business, compared to 16 percent on average across The lack of foundational skills for youth and working-age Sub-Saharan Africa.16 At the same time, about 44 percent adults, particularly women, constrains productivity and of youth across the five countries are neither in school nor development in the Sahel. This evidence underlines that working (Figure 13). Of these inactive youth, between 60 and despite the progress on enrollment, levels of schooling and 80 percent have had no formal schooling, a reflection of just skills in the labor force remain very low by global standards. how nascent the Sahel’s education systems are.17 Two-thirds Such low human capital even among the youngest potential are female and, except in the case of Mauritania, about 80 members of the labor force is a drag on economic perfor- percent live in rural areas.18 16 World Bank Enterprise Surveys (https://www.enterprisesurveys.org/en/enter- prisesurveys). Burkina Faso 2009: 37.5 percent; Chad 2018: 10.3 percent; Mali 2016: 44.7 percent; Mauritania 2014: 39.3 percent; Niger 2017: 21.9 percent 17 See Figure A6 in annex. 18 See Figure 13 below and Figure A7 in annex. Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   25 Education progress, challenges, and strengths to build on in the Sahel countries Figure 14: Proximate and systemic causes of poor education outcomes Learners lack preparation and Teaching is insufficient Learning resources are scarce School infrastructure support needed to succeed and ineffective and low-quality is inadequate and inaccessible Low capacity and incoherence in system management Public financing insufficient and inefficient Source: Authors, based on World Bank (2018). ment for severe acute malnutrition in the five Sahel countries 1.4. The causes of poor outcomes: and Senegal, the most in at least a decade and more than a proximate and systemic factors in 50 percent increase from 2017.20 Stunting and malnutrition basic education can be attributed to multiple factors including poor maternal health and nutrition, inadequate infant and young child feed- Poor education outcomes in the Sahel are driven by an ing practices, and infection.21 Contextual factors such as food interrelated set of proximate and systemic factors. The insecurity linked to weather-related shocks, healthcare ac- barriers in schools and communities that directly constrain cess limitations, and poor sanitation also play a part.22 Frag- children’s education outcomes include: (i) children unpre- ile and conflict-affected states also tend to have significantly pared for school or excluded completely, (ii) shortcomings in higher instances of stunting than do more stable countries.23 teaching, in terms of both quantity and quality, (iii) inadequate learning resources, and (iv) inaccessible and inadequate Children miss important early learning years, as participa- school infrastructure. These service delivery challenges tion in pre-primary education is very low and concentrat- are driven by underlying weaknesses in education systems, ed among better-off, urban households. Gross pre-primary including low capacity and incoherence in system manage- enrollment rates in the Sahel ranged from around 2 percent ment as well as inadequate public financing (Figure 14). This (Chad) to 13 percent (Mauritania) in 2018 (Table 3). There is section reviews the evidence for each of these factors in turn, evidence for rapidly increasing demand from some parents focusing on basic education (primary and secondary). This for early childhood programs, combined with a willingness focus is driven both by the recognition that the basic edu- to pay for it. For instance, enrollment in Niger tripled between cation system is the only one with which the vast majority of 2010 to 2018 and increased by around 60 percent in Burki- today’s children in the Sahel will ever interact, as well as the na Faso between 2011 to 2015, albeit starting from low bases. more practical considerations of data and space limitations. Poverty and rurality are strong predictors of non-participa- tion in pre-primary education. On average, children from the richest quintile are nearly 8 times more likely to attend 1.4.1. Learners inadequately prepared and pre-primary education compared to children from the poor- supported to succeed est quintile, and pre-primary school services simply do not exist in many rural areas.24 Beyond pre-primary, most chil- Large proportions of young children in the Sahel are af- dren in the Sahel start primary school very late, with only 29 flicted by poor health outcomes, leaving them unprepared percent of 6-year-olds in school. for learning in school. Stunting rates for children under the age of five are as high as 48 percent in Niger and 40 per- The majority of existing pre-primary education services cent in Chad (both in the bottom quarter globally), and still are of low quality. Very few pre-primary teachers receive a major cause for concern in the other countries at around 25 percent (bottom half globally).19 In 2018, UNICEF reported 20 UNICEF (2018). that more than 1.3 million children below five needed treat- 21 WHO (2014). 22 WHO (2017). 23 Khara and others (2017). 19 World Bank (2020a). 24 World Bank (2019a). 26   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition Education progress, challenges, and strengths to build on in the Sahel countries Table 3: Participation rates in pre-primary education across the Sahel Participation rates in pre-primary education Country National Poorest Richest Rural Urban Burkina Faso 3% 0.1% 17% 0.4% 16% Chad 2% 0.5% 6% 1% 7% Mali 4% 1% 14% 2% 11% Mauritania 13% 8% 23% 14% 12% Niger 5% 2% 16% 3% 18% Average 5% 2% 15% 4% 13% Source: Authors’ estimates based on EHCVM 2018 for Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, and Niger; and EPCV 2014 for Mauritania training, and governments rarely monitor the quality of cation enrollment and completion for girls (Figure 15). Early pre-primary service delivery. In Burkina Faso, only around marriage is also associated with higher fertility rates. In Ni- 22 percent of staff in registered pre-primary schools are ger, for instance, 43 percent of girls gave birth to at least one trained, with the proportion in unregistered, informal insti- child before turning 18.32 Besides early marriage, restrictions tutions likely to be even lower. Only two of eleven teacher on women’s civil liberties may also contribute to gender gaps training institutes in Niger offer pre-primary training.25 Pre- in education. Women are often prevented from accessing school programs in Burkina Faso were also found lacking in public spaces safely and on the same basis as men due to focus on the development of social and psycho-motor skills informal laws and norms, despite legal provisions protecting or on establishing an adequate foundation for literacy and their rights. This is the case in many West African countries, numeracy for further development in primary education.26 including Burkina Faso, Chad, and Mali.33 In Burkina Faso, 91 percent of the population thinks that women need their Among older children, some social norms common in the husband’s approval to leave home, which likely impedes par- region impede girls’ and women’s access to education, ticipation in adult education programs, among other detri- and perpetuate early and frequent childbearing.27 Burkina mental impacts.34 Faso, Chad, Mali, and Niger feature among the 20 countries with the highest rates of child marriage in the world, with Early marriage is also associated with poorer health out- as high as 76 percent of girls married by age 18 in Niger.28 comes for girls and their children, trapping many children Consistently, pregnancy and/or marriage are the main rea- in an intergenerational cycle of low human capital accu- sons for girls’ dropout from school, either after completing mulation. As shown in Figure 15, early marriage is correlat- primary education, or after starting secondary school but ed with lower secondary school enrollment rates. Maternal without completing it (Figures A16 and A17 in annex). In Niger mortality rates across the Sahel are significantly higher than especially, married adolescents are likely to be expelled from the rest of the world, which likely deprives many young chil- public schools.29 Family refusal also appears to be among the dren of critical early nurturing and care. The rates range reasons for adolescent girls dropping out of school, which from 320 per 100,000 live births in Burkina Faso (2017) to often reflects parental low expectations of the returns from 1,340 in Chad (2017)35; these are substantially higher than the their daughters’ education.30 Local mindsets could help ex- world’s average of 211 in 2017, with Chad being second only plain this. In Burkina Faso, for instance, 44 percent of the to South Sudan globally.36 Maternal and child outcomes are population is in favor of early marriage (before 18) for girls, even worse for adolescent mothers, due in large part to their compared to just 4 percent for boys.31 High rates of early physiological immaturity.37 Furthermore, low birthweight marriage are correlated with lower rates of secondary edu- and stunting often recur across generations. Short maternal stature, an indication of sub-optimal growth in the womb and 25 World Bank (2020b). 26 World Bank (2015a). 32 Perlman and others (2018). 27 Wodon and others (2017) and Giacobino and others (2019). 33 Bouchama et al (2018). 28 UNICEF (2020). 34 OECD DEV (2018). 29 Perlman et al (2018). 35 World Development Indicators, 2021. 30 Perlman et al (2018). 36 Bouchama et al (2018). 31 OECD DEV (2018). 37 Flanagan and others (2020); Yussif and others (2017). Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   27 Education progress, challenges, and strengths to build on in the Sahel countries Figure 15: Early marriage is correlated with lower secondary school enrollment rates 1.2 Enrollment in Secondary, Gender Parity Index 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0 20 40 60 80 Prevalence of early marriage Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America and Caribbean Europe, Central Asia & North America Linear regression Source: World Development Indicators (database), http://data.worldbank.org. A similar analysis was included in Bouchama et al. (2018); it has been replicated here by the authors using a larger dataset. Note: This figure compares the gender parity index in terms of enrollment in secondary education and the prevalence of early marriage in 151 countries (48 in SSA, 61 in Europe, Central Asia, and North America, and 42 in Latin America & the Caribbean). The authors have controlled for GDP per capita, proportion of female teachers, government expenditure in education, gender gap in unemployment, urbanization rate, and regional dummy variables. The R² value for these variables is 0.52, implying that 52 percent of disparities in girls’ participation in secondary education across countries are explained by the prevalence of early marriage for girls, controlling for the variables listed. in early years, is associated with low birth weight, stunting, cially given the transmission of low educational attainment delivery complications and higher child mortality, even after across generations. Programs to re-engage out-of-school controlling for socio-economic status. The transmission of youth and enable them to lead productive lives are therefore poverty across generations also contributes to this effect.38 crucial for breaking this vicious cycle. Parents’ education level is a key determinant of schooling Earning capacity of households and school quality are also choices. Schooling and life outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa important factors that affect retention. Youth in house- are transmitted across generations.39 When parents com- holds with higher earning potential, measured as the num- plete secondary education or achieve higher degrees, their ber of working adults, are more likely to just attend school children are much more likely to finish secondary educa- than to just work (Figure 16).40 When a household has one or tion. Younger youth (aged 12–14 years) from households with two working adults (compared with none), youth are 15–18 a secondary-educated head of household are 20 percent percent less likely to just work, and 14–15 percent more likely more likely to be in school compared with youth from house- to just attend school in countries across Sub-Saharan Africa. holds where the head of household has little or no education. Household data from 12 Sub-Saharan African countries, in- This effect is more pronounced in Francophone countries cluding Burkina Faso, Chad, and Niger, suggest that quality of (more than 25 percent improvement in the probability of at- schooling plays an important role in schooling decisions, and tending school). Older youth in households in which the head that it increases in importance as children become older. of household has completed at least secondary education are twice as likely to stay in and complete school before the Family refusal, cost of education, and inaccessibility of age of 24 than those whose parents have no education. Hav- schools are the main reasons cited for being out-of-school ing such large out-of-school youth populations in the Sahel for primary-school-age children (6–11 years old) in the Sa- risks undoing efforts to boost education outcomes, espe- hel region. Yet these reasons are likely to be interrelated. Indeed, family refusal is often the reflection of the trade-offs 38 Martorell and Zongrone (2012). The authors note that the reasons for this cor- between the perceived benefits of education, which are low relation range from the purely biological to the socio-cultural and are not mutually exclusive. 39 Inoue et al. (2015). 40 Feda and Sakellariou (2013), cited in Inoue et al. (2015). 28   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition Education progress, challenges, and strengths to build on in the Sahel countries Figure 16: Impact of income-generating capacity of households on the marginal probability of 15- to 24-year-old youths’ work/school outcomes Income-generating capacity 20 15 10 5 Percent 0 One employed HH member aged 25+ years Two employed HH member aged 25+ years -5 Three or more employed HH member aged 25+ years -10 -15 -20 Inactive (or home care) Work only Work and school School only Source: Feda & Sakellariou (2013), cited in Inoue et al. (2015) Figure 17: Reasons for being out of school, primary-school-age children (6-11 years) Costs No school/distance Family refusal Field/Domestic work Too young Others 18 17 15 14 21 21 24 23 1 1 32 34 4 4 34 6 5 2 0 42 3 15 0 17 16 11 12 15 16 0 5 1 0 2 25 9 9 2 1 33 33 41 8 45 44 43 35 48 43 42 49 7 2 8 41 10 11 21 22 21 23 20 6 11 11 13 1 14 9 6 1 1 Total Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Burkina Faso Chad Mali Niger Source: Authors’ estimates based on EHCVM 2018 for Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, and Niger. if quality of education is low, and the overall costs associat- of residence, with only 8 percent of children in urban areas ed with schooling.4142 Figure 17 shows the main reasons giv- reporting ‘no school/distance’ as the main cause for prima- en for out-of-school children (6-11 years) who are currently ry-age children’s non-enrollment, compared to 45 percent in not enrolled in the formal education system vary by country rural areas. and area of residence. For instance, family refusal is cited as the key reason in Mali (44 percent), Niger (43 percent) and Burkina Faso (33 percent), while inaccessibility of schools is 1.4.2. Teachers: Shortages, absences, and skill cited as the key reason in Chad (41 percent). The national lev- gaps el metric in Chad belies significant variations based on area Across the Sahel, there are not enough teachers in the 41 Low quality of education may reduce parental incentives to send their children right places as systems struggle to efficiently expand to school if they perceive that they are not learning enough. Parents may also under- estimate the returns to education (World Bank (2018)). and deploy human resources. The Sahel countries have 42 Costs of schooling may include costs for uniforms, transport, or guard fees among the highest average student-teacher ratios (STRs) when schools are remote, but also the opportunity cost associated with offspring’s work (Perlman et al (2018)). in the world, ranging from 34 (2018) in Mauritania to 57 in Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   29 Education progress, challenges, and strengths to build on in the Sahel countries Chad (2016), all ranking in the top quintile of countries with to be absent than their rural counterparts. The 2017 SDI in available data.43 Moreover, teachers are unevenly distribut- Mauritania similarly found that the public-school teachers’ ed across schools with strong regional disparities. A 2017 classroom absence rate was 27.8 percent. The reasons for World Bank Service Delivery Indicators (SDI) survey in Mau- teacher absences are similar across the region. In Niger, the ritania found that 83 percent of rural schools faced teach- main reasons were strikes (24 percent), having to travel to er shortages, with some having fewer teachers than class- collect salaries (23 percent), sick leave (11 percent), maternity rooms. Even after schools grouped students by ability to help leave (11 percent), and other approved absences (11 percent). address the deficit, 63 percent of rural schools still faced a In Mali, low motivation due to dissatisfaction with posting shortage of teachers, whereas 82 percent of urban public locations was cited as a significant reason. Other common- schools had surplus teachers. Private schools also tend to ly cited reasons were strikes, training during the work week have better STRs than public schools. For instance, Mali in involving travel to the capital Bamako, sick leave (rural teach- 2016 had an average national STR of 53 in public schools and ers often need to travel to urban areas to access healthcare 39 in private schools in the first phase of basic education. services), and salary collection.47 Recurring strikes and lack of access to financial and health services for rural teachers need Rapid population growth and tight budgets have prompt- to be addressed systemically. At the same time, supervision of ed Sahel countries to hire significant numbers of contract teachers and consequences for undesirable behavior are in- and community teachers, creating two classes of employ- adequate. In Mali, principals and school management com- ment and persistent dissatisfaction. Contract teachers are mittees often do not report teacher absences due to unclear generally paid less than tenured teachers and receive little to reporting procedures. In both Mali and Niger, local authorities no training. Based on data from 2002 to 2008, both tenured rarely inspect or collect data on absences. The suspension civil servant teachers and contract teachers in Mali, Niger, process in Mali is lengthy and rarely activated, and teachers Burkina Faso, and Chad were paid at or above the respective may change their behavior if aware of upcoming proceedings. regional averages, but more recent data is not available to assess whether salaries have kept up with inflation.44 How- Regardless of civil service status, teachers have very low ever, there are large disparities in salaries between tenured levels of content knowledge and pedagogical skills. In and contract teachers. For example, in Niger, where the 2015 Mauritania, none of the 1,250 teachers tested for knowledge SDI found that nearly 70 percent of primary school teachers in French or in Arabic cleared the performance threshold for in a nationally representative sample were contract teach- teachers set at a score of 80 percent on the Grade 4 curric- ers, the average annual remuneration of a tenured teacher ulum. Results in Mathematics were only slightly higher, with working at the same level of education is typically more than 1 teacher out of 24 (4.8 percent) clearing the threshold.48 twice as much as contract teachers. Tenured teachers also Pedagogical content knowledge was also very low, with a have numerous additional allowances such as for “hardship” national average in the sample of just 13 percent. The 2015 and transportation unlike contract teachers.45 In Mali, where Niger SDI similarly found that no teachers surveyed cleared teachers are often unwilling to move to the northern regions the threshold for content knowledge in French and Mathe- due to security concerns, only 10 percent of primary teach- matics.49 Teacher pedagogy scores were also low at 18.8 ers in Bamako were contract teachers versus 40 percent percent, with teachers in private schools (24.1 percent) per- further away. These contract teachers also earn less and forming slightly better than their public-school counterparts during focus group discussions, highlighted low salaries as (18.5 percent). a key reason for the lack of motivation.46 The quality of contract teachers relative to tenured teach- Teacher absences, roughly half of which are driven by em- ers varies across countries and content areas. In Niger, ployment dissatisfaction and lack of access to services, re- while neither group had any teachers meeting the minimum sult in significant losses of time for teaching and learning. threshold for content knowledge, the average score among A 2015 SDI in Niger found that 27 percent of teachers were civil servant teachers was 53.5 percent in French and 35.6 per- not in the classroom (combination of teachers being absent cent in Mathematics, compared to 46.4 percent and 24.2 per- from the school entirely or present but not teaching), with ur- cent among contract teachers. Contract teachers also scored ban public-school teachers 5 percentage points more likely 47 World Bank (2020d). 43 UNESCO Institute of Statistics (2020). 48 Mauritania Service Delivery Indicator Survey, 2017. 44 UNESCO (2020). 49 Primary school teachers in Niger teach all subjects as opposed to specializing 45 UNESCO (2020). in one. Hence the SDI test for content knowledge covered both French (literacy) and 46 World Bank (2020d). Mathematics (numeracy). 30   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition Education progress, challenges, and strengths to build on in the Sahel countries only 16 percent on pedagogy compared to 29.8 percent for areas. Across the region, schools often lack sanitary facili- tenured teachers. In Mauritania, the results were mixed. While ties, materials, and basic infrastructure, and these deficien- contract teachers trailed tenured teachers in French and Ara- cies are more severe in rural areas. Moreover, lack of access bic, they performed better in Mathematics and pedagogy. to services in remote rural areas, language and ethnic group considerations, and safety concerns in conflict-affected ar- These quantity and quality issues are due to problems with eas all affect teachers’ and other civil servants’ willingness to recruiting high-quality candidates to the teaching profes- be deployed to these areas, and the majority are still located sion, the lack of effective pre- and in-service training, and in the capital cities. In Mali, 75 percent of civil servants are in deficiencies in teacher performance management. The Bamako, and in Niger, 64 percent are in Niamey, although the potential talent pool for teachers is small to begin with, given cities only account for 11 percent and 6 percent of the coun- the low levels of education in the labor force discussed earli- tries’ populations respectively.53 er. Adult literacy rates in the Sahel range from 22 percent in Chad (2016) to 53 percent in Mauritania (2017).50 The talent Education systems lack the tools to effectively redeploy pool is likely to be much smaller in rural areas compared to teachers to where they are most needed. Identifying hir- urban areas, given persistently large rural-urban gaps in en- ing needs at the local level is difficult as human resource rollment rates and the tendency of better-educated people data tends to be incomplete, fragmented, or incorrect. Post- to migrate to urban areas. With the need to hire tens of thou- ings are often decided centrally based on budget allocation, sands of new teachers every year, Sahel countries likely face which may not always reflect needs. Efforts are underway a quantity-quality tradeoff. to devolve responsibilities for formal teacher recruitment to the local level, particularly in Mali and Niger, but capacity and Pre-service and in-service training are highly deficient. budget remain a challenge. The Sahel countries generally Pre-service education programs are rarely selective, and lack financial and non-financial incentives to attract teach- completion of lower secondary education is often enough ers to rural or high-risk areas. In Mali for instance, the mo- to be hired as a teacher. For example, postsecondary-lev- bility bonus for postings outside the capital Bamako is very el teacher training institutes in Niger only have capacity to low, at between CFAF 5,000 and 15,000 across the country graduate 5 percent of the annual new teachers needed, and (equivalent to USD 10 to 30, and less than 1 percent of teach- the rest must come from secondary-level graduates or be- er salaries) without any other non-financial incentives. Niger low.51 Pre-service teacher education curricula across the Sa- lacks transparent procedures and criteria for teacher post- hel are fragmented and outdated, do not remediate academ- ings across regions, and school transfers tend to be haphaz- ic deficiencies in teacher-candidates, and do not adequately ard. In Mali, teachers decide where they wish to move and address subject and pedagogical knowledge. In Mali, for ex- trigger the transfer process, with little consideration given to ample, the pre-service curriculum has not changed for over the needs in the destination school. Teachers who transfer twenty years. In addition, practice teaching in classrooms is out are often not replaced for long periods, adding to un- often perfunctory and inadequately supervised. In Mali, this evenness in staff strength across schools.54 is due to insufficient capacity in schools and the high num- ber of student-teachers posted to schools, with more than Across the teaching career, a lack of performance man- 10 student-teachers in the same classroom sometimes. agement limits the support and incentives for teachers to For new teachers in schools, there is little to no mentoring maximize their effort. There is little to no teacher evaluation, and in-service training is often too sporadic to be effective. prospects for career progression are not clearly merit-based, In both Mali and Niger, there are few mechanisms for local and poor performing teachers are rarely exited from educa- authorities rendering pedagogical support to assess teach- tion systems in the Sahel. In Mali, local pedagogical support ers’ needs for in-service training. There is little support when centers are responsible for advising teachers on teaching teachers initiate requests to attend training, and approval and assessment, and to assess teachers. These support cen- processes are often mired in bureaucracy.52 ters typically comprise 7 to 10 pedagogical advisers, often without consideration for the number of schools or teachers Working and living conditions limit the number of teachers assigned to them. The centers therefore vary in their effica- willing to move from capitals and urban centers to rural cy and impact. In practice, there are few supervision visits, pedagogical advice provided to teachers is inadequate, and 50 WDI. From the 2019 respective household surveys, the adult literacy rates in the Sahel range from 32 percent in Chad to 60 percent in Mauritania. 51 World Bank (2020j). 53 World Bank (2020k). 52 World Bank (2020d). 54 World Bank (2020j); World Bank (2020d). Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   31 Education progress, challenges, and strengths to build on in the Sahel countries training needs are poorly identified. The situation is similar in Table 4: Proportion of female teachers in prima- Niger, where teacher supervision and evaluation are largely ry education in the Sahel countries with aver- absent. In both countries, although there are processes for ages for Sub-Saharan Africa and countries by terminating teachers in the event of prolonged absence or income level poor performance, it is rare for teachers to be dismissed.55 Proportion of female teachers (%) Women are underrepresented in the Sahel’s education workforce, particularly among secondary teachers and Country Primary Secondary managerial staff. At the primary level, female teachers are Chad 18.8 7.9 noticeably scarce in Chad, Mali, and Mauritania but make Mali 31.7 (2018) 13.5 (2017) up around half of the workforce in Burkina Faso and Niger, Mauritania 35.4 11.2 in line with the SSA average (Table 4). At the secondary level, Burkina Faso 47.9 17.4 the gender disparity is striking across the Sahel, with female teachers only representing between 8 percent (Chad) and 22 Niger 53.7 22.4 (2018) percent (Niger) of the teacher workforce. While data is scarce Sub-Saharan Africa 46.7 31.1 (2018) for education ministry staff, qualitative evidence indicates that Low-income countries 41.9 26.0 (2018) women are also extremely underrepresented among inspec- Middle-income countries 66.3 54.4 tors as well as local and national managerial education staff. High-income countries 81.7 60.6 These gender gaps likely affect student outcomes, partic- Source: UNESCO Institute of Statistics (data as of September 2020); data is for 2019 unless indicated otherwise. ularly for girls. The idea that students perform better under teachers of the same gender is termed the “same-gender effect”, which could be driven by factors like role modelling, stereotyping and sexual harassment.56 A study of PASEC 1.4.3. Learning resources are insufficient and 2014 results showed the same-gender effect at play.57 While not well-adapted: materials, curriculum, and teacher gender does not affect boys’ average test perfor- instructional policies mance nor subject appreciation, it strongly matters for girls’ performance. When taught by a female teacher, girls show a Low availability of teaching and learning materials con- strong boost, particularly in test performance. By contrast, tinues to plague schools in the Sahel. In Mauritania, only when taught by a male teacher, girls show lower test perfor- 17 percent of students were found to have textbooks in the mance and subject appreciation than do boys in both read- observed subjects. While just one student in three in private ing and math. These effects are significant for both reading schools had a textbook, this ratio dropped to one in five in and math, but particularly strong for math. At the secondary public schools. French textbooks were the rarest in pub- level, making schools safe and accessible for girls is import- lic schools (less than 7 percent of students have a textbook ant for increasing their enrollment and closing gender gaps, at the national level and less than 3 percent in rural public and more female teachers is a critical component of such schools). The situation in Niger was worse, with less than efforts.58 Providing opportunities for female teachers to be- one in eleven pupils overall having textbooks for the class come school principals could also help, especially if biases observed (8.9 percent). Private school students fared bet- or discriminatory practices currently limit their opportuni- ter than public school students, but even they had textbooks ties. Lowering those barriers would allow the emergence of only a quarter of the time. Textbooks for French were more more school leaders who understand the special challenges available than those for math in private and public schools faced by girls, while also untapping an underutilized source irrespective of location. The general level of textbook avail- of talent.59 The same may be true for female officials in the ability was not significantly different across rural and urban education ministry. schools in both countries. The root causes of these peren- nial shortages are systemic and include underbudgeting for 55 World Bank (2020d); World Bank (2020j). educational materials, procurement weaknesses, and data 56 Beilock, Gunderson, Ramirez, and Levine (2010); Gunderson, Ramirez, Levine, system gaps that hinder timely information on needs.60 and Beilock (2012). 57 Rudolf and Rhee (2019). 58 World Bank (2020c). 59 This concern about unequal rates of promotion to school principal appears in other regions too. In Latin America, 8 of 15 countries analyzed in a recent report show at least a 20-point gap in the percentage of female directors compared with female teachers (Adelman and Lemos (2021)). 60 Fredriksen, Brar, and Trucano (2015). 32   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition Education progress, challenges, and strengths to build on in the Sahel countries Figure 18: Average gap in reading and mathematics scores between students who always or sometimes spoke the Language of Instruction at home and those who never did, PASEC 2019 Mathematics Reading Grade 2 Grade 6 Togo 59v Togo 64 78 69 Senegal 45 Senegal 31 81 43 DRC 45 DRC 21 44 34 Madagascar 14 Madagascar 74 20 88 Guinea 83 Guinea 61 87 92 Gabon 74 21 Gabon Other 73 Other 10 Cote d'ivoire 31 Cote d'ivoire 41 47 66 Congo 76 Congo 36 98 61 Cameroon 83 Cameroon 72 110 93 Burundi 47 Burundi 13 66 15 Benin 53 Benin 45 63 60 68 46 Niger 75 Niger 55 Sahel Burkina Faso 65 Sahel Burkina Faso 52 83 62 70 Chad 9 Chad 67 11 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 50 100 Source: Adapted from Bashir, Lockheed, Ninan, and Tan (2019), using updated data from PASEC 2019. Please note that the average early primary (Grade 2) score of all the countries that participated in the PASEC 2019 assessment is 503 in reading and 498 mathematics, while the average late primary (Grade 6) score of all the countries is 500 in reading and 486 in mathematics. Beyond the physical availability of materials, their content Table 5: Proportion of the population with the is often inadequate, as the basic education curricula in Language of Instruction (LOI) as their first the Sahel are outdated and inappropriate for the context. language School curricula often date back to the 1960s or 1970s, soon after the Sahel countries became independent from France, Share of and have not undergone fundamental reform since. The re- population with Country LOI LOI as L1 (%) sult is overly ambitious curricula, textbooks, and exams de- signed for a small, elite minority that does not cater to the Burkina Faso French 1.1 (2009) broad range of students entering schools. Chad French 0.0 Modern Standard Arabic 10.2^ (2015) In the early grades, language of instruction (LoI) policies Mali* French 0.0 in the Sahel are impeding students’ learning. World Bank Mauritania French 0.0 (2021) cites global research showing that learning first in a first language or “L1” improves four types of learning out- Modern Standard Arabic 0.0 comes: (i) it promotes better learning outcomes in the L1, (ii) it Niger French 0.0 promotes higher learning outcomes in a subsequent second Source: Ethnologue, 2019 language or “L2”, (iii) it promotes learning in other academic ^The share of population reflected here is for Chadian Arabic, which is a local variant of Modern Standard Arabic. subjects, and (iv) it promotes the development of other cog- * The table excludes the 11 local languages which Mali has been piloting as LOIs. nitive abilities.61 In SSA, there is a clear correlation between learning levels and speaking the LOI at home, as seen from the average gap in PASEC scores for reading and mathe- countries have evolved differently, there have been no large- matics in Figure 18.62 However, while policies in the Sahel scale attempts to teach in national languages except in Mali. French is the main LOI in Burkina Faso and Niger, with both French and Modern Standard Arabic used in Chad and Mau- 61 The learning outcomes described are drawn from World Bank (2021b). 62 Bashir, S., Lockheed, M., Ninan, E., and Tan, J.-P. (2018). ritania. Table 5 shows the share of each country’s population Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   33 Education progress, challenges, and strengths to build on in the Sahel countries Table 6: Linguistic diversity in the Sahel countries Share of Total number languages of L1 speakers Share of Total # of Languages # of languages spoken by speaking 80% population Population (in Total # of with a written spoken by 80% 80% of the languages (in speaking 80% Country Million) Languages form* of population population Million) of languages Burkina Faso 12.5 71 62 6 8.5% 10.1 80.4% Chad 8.9 130 112 20 15.4% 7.1 80.1% Mali 13 68 43 11 16.2% 10.5 80.6% Mauritania 4.1 7 6 1 14.3% 3.6 86.8% Niger 15.8 23 22 2 8.7% 13.6 86.0% Source: Loud and Clear: Effective Language of Instruction Policies for Learning, World Bank, 2021 *Source: Ethnologue, 2019 with the LOI(s) as their first language. Nearly all students are language and culture.64 However, there were several issues raised in households speaking local languages and/or local raised by stakeholders which mirror the wider issues in variants of Arabic, and therefore receive primary school in- Mali’s education system management, but are compound- struction in unfamiliar languages, making it difficult for them ed by the complexity of introducing bilingual education in to learn. a linguistically diverse country like Mali. These include the choice of language at the local level (where data is patchy at Transitioning to instruction in national languages is tech- best and decisions are contentious), aligning teacher hiring nically feasible, despite the Sahel’s linguistic diversity. As and deployment with language needs, the lack of sufficient Table 6 shows, the five Sahel countries are all linguistically materials in every language, abrupt transition to French in diverse, with the number of native languages spoken by the the second cycle of basic education (lower secondary) that population ranging from seven in Mauritania to 130 in Chad. undermines many students’ success, and weak and inter- However, a far more manageable number of languages are mittent institutional support, leaving many stakeholders with spoken by at least 80 percent of the population: ranging the perception of lack of high level commitment to the poli- from 6 in Burkina Faso to 20 in Chad. Countries can start cy.65 Niger has similarly accumulated significant experience with just a few of the most commonly spoken local languag- in bilingual education, and has developed a strong base in es to cover an appreciable proportion of their populations— terms of legal reforms and experiments in bilingual educa- in Burkina Faso, for instance, using Mòoré and Fulfulde can tion. However, reforms to generalize bilingual education have reach around half the population.63 Therefore, significant been slow, and major challenges remain on aspects such as proportions of the population could in principle be served training of teachers, and convincing internal and external with primary education in their native language through the stakeholders of the value of a bilingual education.66 development of materials and other resources in these lan- guages. These interventions need to be implemented care- fully to ensure that no groups are excluded based on LoI. 1.4.4. School infrastructure: gaps in facilities and school climate However, both political considerations and practical im- plementation challenges make changing LOI policy more Physical inaccessibility continues to be a significant rea- difficult, with many relevant lessons from the region. son for students’ non-enrollment, particularly in Chad. Qualitative research on Mali’s experience with national lan- guage instruction has found several key benefits, including 64 Mali’s experiments in bilingual education using French and Bambara (first a stronger nexus between school and community through language for an estimated 80 percent of the population, and a commonly used lan- the use of the local language, faster learning of reading and guage for commerce) date back to the 1980s. From October 2002 to June 2005 Mali piloted the use of four national languages (Bambara, Songhay, Fulfulde and writing in the national language, and the promotion of local Tamasheq). The government decided to generalize this approach using 11 national languages, with 2,550 schools coming on board by 2011. 65 USAID (2016). 66 Ministère des Affaires Etrangères et Européennes, Agence Française de Dével- 63 Estimated using data from Ethnologue, 2019 for the number of Mòoré and Ful- oppement, Organisation Internationale de la Francophonie, Agence Universitaire de fulde speakers in 2009. la Francophonie (2010). To be updated with more recent information. 34   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition Education progress, challenges, and strengths to build on in the Sahel countries Inaccessibility of schools varies across the Sahel countries, STRs discussed above) as well as negative practices like cor- with fewer than 10 percent of households in Burkina Faso poral punishment all affect students’ well-being and ability to reporting distance as the main cause for primary-age chil- learn, and are likely to discourage many families from send- dren’s non-enrollment compared to 10-20 percent in Mali ing their children, particularly adolescent girls, to school. and Niger, to over 40 percent in Chad.67 In many cases, schools may exist but not offer a complete cycle of education; in Niger, for example, only 60 percent of primary schools, en- 1.4.5. System management: Low capacity and rolling some 50 percent of students, offer a complete 6-year incoherence that contribute to school-level cycle of primary education. In the Sahel and across many challenges developing countries, travel time to school is consistently negatively correlated with enrollment and completion.68 In The Sahel’s education systems—and capacities required for Burkina Faso for example, decreasing motorized travel time their functioning—are still emerging. In half a century, basic to school by 10 minutes is correlated with a 3.3 percentage education across the Sahel has grown from small systems for point higher completion rate.69 the elite to national systems attempting to serve rapidly grow- ing populations. At the same time, persistently high poverty Even when schools are accessible, they tend to have poor and underdevelopment affect the quality of education service infrastructure. The 2017 Mauritania SDI showed that in al- delivery. As a result, adequate policy, processes, and human most all public schools (19 schools out of 20), students do and financial resources are not in place for these systems to not have access to the minimal infrastructure (availability of effectively function. For example, while salaries absorb the vast functioning toilets and classrooms with enough lighting). The majority of education budgets, payment systems are still in- main constraint was around access to toilets that are clean complete and inefficient. As mentioned above, many teachers and protect the students’ privacy (enclosed spaces with sep- waste a great deal of time (and are absent from school) trav- arate facilities for girls). Almost half of rural schools and one eling to collect their salaries, and Niger just started utilizing its quarter of urban public schools do not have functional toilets nascent post office network for salary payments in 2019.71 for students. Only 1 in 11 public schools (urban and rural) have toilets with adequate sanitary conditions. By contrast, all pri- Systems lack key information—most importantly, on stu- vate schools have functional toilets for students, although dent learning—for goal setting, decision-making, and al- only around a third have toilets that are sanitary. The situa- location of resources. In many Sahel countries, there is no tion seems to be slightly better in Niger, but there are large systematic approach to assess student learning. Niger, for in- disparities between public and private schools there too. The stance, does not have a national system with the appropriate minimum infrastructure indicator was met only in around structures, and skilled manpower to assess student outcomes 20 percent of public schools sampled in the 2015 SDI. Pri- at scale.72 The Ministries of Education have participated to vate schools were four times more likely to meet minimum varying degrees in international comparative assessments infrastructure requirements than public schools, and two to such as PASEC and SDI surveys, which are important and three times more likely to have functional toilets. useful initiatives. However, without functional national mech- anisms to diagnose, track, and act on student learning results, In addition to physical infrastructure gaps, school cli- the Sahel’s education systems are limited in their capacity to mates are not always conducive to learning, and these tackle learning poverty at every level. Given their generally low factors may discourage families from sending their chil- levels of skills, teachers in Sahel countries are ill-prepared to dren. Primary teachers widely self-report using corporal assess learning effectively in the classroom and to tailor ped- punishment on students, from 25 percent in Burkina Faso to agogy to suit the learning needs of students. School leaders 72 percent in Chad. Data on the prevalence of bullying and and local administrators are rarely able to guide teachers sexual harassment are not available for the Sahel countries, in assessing classroom learning, or in collecting and using but given the experiences of many other SSA countries, both school-level assessment data to modify instruction. Other are potentially also factors affecting students’ educational basic data—such as on school populations and needs—is not trajectories.70 A lack of basic infrastructure combined with collected and transmitted by education management infor- widespread overcrowding in classrooms (related to the high mation systems in a timely and reliable manner, delaying or disabling data driven decision making at every level. 67 Results of the EHCVM 2018. 68 Bashir, S., Lockheed, M., Ninan, E., and Tan, J.-P. (2018). 69 World Bank (2021c). 71 World Bank (2020j). 70 Bashir, Lockheed, Ninan, and Tan (2018). 72 World Bank (2020b). Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   35 Education progress, challenges, and strengths to build on in the Sahel countries Figure 19: Sahel overall spending on education (constant 2018 US dollars), and composition of Sahel overall spending on education (a) Sahel overall spending on education, constant 2018 US dollars, (b) Composition of Sahel overall spending on education, 2009–2019 2009–2019 Overall spending on education, constant 2018 US dollars (billions), 2009-2019 Overall spending on education composition, 2009-2019 5 100% 4 90% 4 80% 70% 3 Billion USD 60% 3 50% 2 40% 2 30% 1 20% 1 10% 0 0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Government ODA Household Total Government Household ODA Source: World Bank Education Finance Watch database Incoherence across different parts of the system reduc- tions. Moreover, politicization and turnover of technical posi- es the effectiveness of initiatives and reforms. Misalign- tions at much lower levels, such as the political appointment ments across different levels of the curriculum, between the of school directors, do not provide education systems with curriculum and textbooks, and between teacher training the technically capable and consistent management needed programs and basic education policy all contribute to un- at every level. dermining the success of reforms and negatively impact students. For example, in Burkina Faso there is a sharp dis- continuity between the curricula for primary and lower sec- 1.4.6. Public financing: inadequate, inefficient, ondary education.73 Students who enter grade seven often and at times inequitable spending find that they must learn new concepts for which they lack required preparation and this contributes to poor perfor- Governments, households, and development partners are mance and dropout. In Mali, after a competency-based cur- the main funders of education in the Sahel, but their con- riculum was adopted, some textbooks became incompatible tributions differ significantly across countries. On average but were not removed from the Ministry’s list of approved across the five countries, the contribution of households, textbooks, and were therefore still considered for procure- governments and development partners to total education ment.74 spending has remained relatively constant over time, with governments contributing around 55 percent, households Finally, inconsistency and politicization of technical lead- 30 percent, and international partners about 15 percent ership distracts from education systems’ main goals and (Figure 19). However, in Chad, Mauritania, and Mali the direct limits implementation capacity. The average education contribution of households to education spending has been minister’s tenure is lower across the Sahel (26 months) than greater than public spending in recent years, while in Niger in Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole (36 months) or the world contributions from households are on average lower than (35 months).75 While the frequency of ministerial turnover from partners. In 2019, for instance, households in Niger ac- itself may create instability, likely more detrimental are the counted for only 12 percent of total education spending com- accompanying diversion of focus to elections, frequent turn- pared to a 39 percent average across Sahel countries (Fig- over of senior technical leadership, and system reorganiza- ure 20). At the same time, the importance of international aid (ODA) for education funding is also very different within Sahel 73 World Bank (2015). region. In 2019, aid from partners represented 18.3 and 17.3 74 World Bank (2020d). percent of total education spending in Niger and Mauritania, 75 Lemos and Maloney (forthcoming). The authors calculate average tenure using data from January 2001 through June 2020.) but only 7.3 percent in Burkina Faso. 36   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition Education progress, challenges, and strengths to build on in the Sahel countries Figure 20: Education financing composition by country Government Household Official development assistance Burkina Faso Chad 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Mali Mauritania 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Niger 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: World Bank Education Finance Watch database Over the last decade, the share of public spending on ed- spending in the economy. Not all Sahel countries are allo- ucation as a percentage of GDP across the Sahel has av- cating this little: Burkina Faso’s spending on education has eraged around 3 percent, with only Burkina Faso devoting hovered between 4.5 and 5.5 percent of GDP in recent years, a larger share than the SSA average. From 2010 to 2019, above the SSA average, while the other Sahel countries’ public expenditures on education increased from 2.8 to 3.2 spending remained below SSA average. At the other end of percent of GDP on average, but the latest figure remains well the range, Mauritania spends the least at less than 2 percent below the SSA average of 4 percent and international bench- of GDP. Even at the high end, Burkina’s low per-capita income marks in the range of 4-6 percent of GDP (Figure 21). These translates into very low absolute spending per child by global relatively low shares reflect both low shares of overall bud- standards, as discussed below. get allocated to education and the low share of government Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   37 Education progress, challenges, and strengths to build on in the Sahel countries Figure 21: Public expenditure on education as share of GDP and total public spending for Sahel countries Government Expenditure on education (% of GDP) Government expenditure on education(% of budget) 6.3 25 5.8 23 5.3 21 19 4.8 17 4.3 15 3.8 13 3.3 11 2.8 9 2.3 7 1.8 5 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Burkina Faso Chad Mali Mauritania Niger Sub-Saharan Africa Sahel Source: WBG staff estimates based on World Development Indicators, as of February 2021 As a share of government spending, education spending Governments have largely overlooked pre-primary edu- across the Sahel stayed stable at around 15 percent over cation compared to other education levels. Investment in the last decade. From 2010 to 2019, education expenditures pre-primary education as a proportion of overall education in the Sahel’s public budgets remained at 15 percent on av- expenditure is significantly below UNICEF’s recommended erage, less than the SSA average of 17 percent and below share of 10 percent. 77 Figure 22 shows the breakdown of ed- the Global Partnership for Education’s (GPE) recommended ucation expenditure across the Sahel countries by sub-sec- target of 20 percent.76 Among the five countries, however, tor. Pre-primary expenditure has been categorized together there is substantial variation. Burkina Faso stands as the with other subsectors such as TVET and teacher training. only country in the Sahel with education as a share of gov- Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, and Mauritania each allocated less ernment spending above the SSA average, at 20 percent in than 2 percent of their public education budgets towards 2020, while Mauritania is the lowest, at just 10 percent. pre-primary education in 2018.78 Niger has a somewhat higher level of commitment, spending around 5 percent of Within education, the allocation of resources by level re- its education budget on pre-primary education (2016), with flects prioritization of primary education across the Sahel, public pre-schools accounting for 72 percent of 2018 pre- but in all countries but Mali tertiary receives an outsize school enrollment. In the absence of significant government share of the budget. Over the past several years, allocations expenditure, financing of pre-primary education is largely to primary education have ranged between 40 and 50 per- left to households and communities, and pre-school is de- cent for all Sahel countries (in line with the GPE’s recommen- livered through the private and non-governmental sectors. dation of 45 percent) except Burkina Faso, which has con- sistently allocated 60 percent to this level. However, Burkina Despite prioritizing primary education in allocations, Faso and Chad allocate about as much public financing to public financing is extremely inadequate for the Sahel’s tertiary compared to secondary education, while Maurita- needs and burdened by significant inefficiencies. Not only nia and Niger allocate far more to tertiary than secondary. are spending levels per student in primary very low in abso- Considering both the low total tertiary student populations lute terms (Table 7), but even relative to per-capita income, and enrollment patterns discussed above, tertiary spending they are near the bottom globally, due to overall low public is likely regressive and largely benefiting the top socioeco- spending on education. With coverage far from complete nomic quintiles. (as discussed earlier), the Sahel’s public systems are poorly 76 https://www.globalpartnership.org/sites/default/files/2019-02-gpe-domestic- 77 UNICEF (2019). policy-brief_web.pdf 78 UNICEF (2019). 38   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition Education progress, challenges, and strengths to build on in the Sahel countries Figure 22: Public expenditure by education level for Sahel countries Primary Secondary Tertiary Pre-primary and others Burkina Faso Chad 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Mali Mauritania 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Niger 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: WBG staff estimates based on World Development Indicators, as of June 2021 resourced to meet the massive demands for education at ing fewer learning-adjusted years of schooling than would this level. At the same time, the countries lost about USD 450 be expected given their levels of spending per child (Figure million in total education spending (0.8 percent of GDP), due 23). However, there are differences among Sahel countries to school repetition and dropouts.79 Looking at spending ef- at similar levels of spending, with some countries getting sig- ficiency in a global context, the Sahel countries are produc- nificantly better outcomes for the same (or lower) levels of spending. Burkina Faso is the most efficient of the four Sahel 79 The USD 450 million comprises USD 317 million of losses in public schools, countries for which data are available. It spends less per pri- representing 19 percent of total annual public spending on primary and secondary education. Private-sector losses are around USD 134 million or 21 percent of total mary student than Mali, Niger, and Chad, but is able to trans- household spending on primary and secondary education. The estimates were cal- late that spending into about 4.7 learning-adjusted years of culated using the number of dropouts and repetitions per year by level of education and based on the per capita costs of public and private education. schooling, while in Mali, Niger, and Chad the corresponding Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   39 Education progress, challenges, and strengths to build on in the Sahel countries Figure 23: Learning-adjusted years of schooling Table 7: Government education financing per compared with spending per child, 2019 student in 2019 10 Government expenditure per student, constant PPP$ ALB HCI Learning Adjusted Years of Schooling (LAYS) ECU MEX PER COL Primary Secondary Tertiary LKA LCA MDA GRN IRN 8 DMA Burkina Faso 272 294 2100 SLV JOR VCT WSM Chad 99 358 3130 JAM EGY DOM Mali 284 488 3527 LMO GTS 6 Mauritania 380 528 3571 MWI ZAF AFG Niger 112 136 2202 SLE CIV BFA Sahel (average) 229 361 2906 MRT 4 RWA SSA 432 1049 2737 LMIC 763 1429 2756 TCD NER MLI Source: World Bank Education Finance Watch database 2 0 1000 2000 3000 Spending per child, const 2017 PPP$ moving children from school.80 These realities require more Source: Authors’ calculations; data from World Bank Education Finance Watch da- flexibility in education offerings, with more opportunities for tabase non-linear progress and multi-grade approaches that can serve children and youth who may enter and exit the system repeatedly. figures are only 2.6, 2.7 and 2.8 years respectively. Thus, both the low level of spending and the inefficiencies in translating Rapid population growth forces education systems to “run that spending into learning are major challenges for educa- just to stand still”, with the school-age cohort growing by tion finance. nearly 1 million children per year. On average, the fertility rate in Sahel countries is 6.4 children per woman compared to the SSA average of 4.7, with Niger having the world’s high- 1.5. Beyond the system: fragility and est rate and all five countries in the top 25 globally. Demo- conflict drive challenges and shape graphic trends show that the Sahel region’s population will demands on education more than double between 2020 and 2050, from over 86 million to nearly 200 million people (Figure 24). This growth Deep poverty and persistent shocks limit public and pri- will put even more pressure on nations that currently lack vate resources and undermine investments in human the capacity to govern their entire territories and to provide capital. Four of the five Sahel countries are in the bottom basic services to all their inhabitants. The school-age cohort quintile of countries globally in terms of GDP per capita, and (children and adolescents ages 6-18) is expected to increase in the top quintile in terms of population share living in ex- from 29.8 million in 2020 to 38.8 million by 2030, increasing treme poverty. As a result, parents have limited human cap- pressure on education systems that already face severe ca- ital themselves, and struggle with livelihoods, yet shoulder pacity constraints. the burden of about one-third of education spending as dis- cussed above. Climactic shocks are increasing in frequency Based on the current supply trends in countries’ educa- and severity, threatening livelihoods, and exacerbating con- tion systems—a “business as usual” scenario—primary flict. Over 70 percent of households in Burkina Faso, Chad, education enrollment numbers will increase significantly Mali, and Niger report having experienced at least one ma- but not GERs.81 The increase in enrollment figures between jor negative shock in the past three years (climate, conflict, 2021 and 2030 is equivalent to 4.2 million more children or idiosyncratic), and nearly half were forced into negative studying, or an increase of 36 percent across the Sahel coping strategies that undermine human capital, such as re- 80 Brunelin, Ouedraogo, and Tandon (2020). 81 The methodological note used for the simulation model is presented in Annex B. 40   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition Education progress, challenges, and strengths to build on in the Sahel countries Figure 24: Population growth in G5 Sahel Countries 200000 Chad Burkina Faso Mali Mauritania Niger 150000 Thousands 100000 50000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 Source: Authors’ estimates based on United Nations World Population Prospects (2019). Figure 25: Student enrollment projections in primary education under the ‘Business as Usual’ scenario, million Student enrollment, million Niger Mauritania Mali Chad Burkina Faso 18 16 14 4.1 4.3 3.9 4.0 12 3.6 3.8 3.3 3.5 3.0 3.1 0.9 0.9 10 2.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 2.6 2.6 0.7 0.7 2.4 2.5 2.5 8 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.1 6 3.6 3.6 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.2 4 2.6 2 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.1 3.4 3.4 3.5 0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Source: Simulation model (Figure 25). The largest increase in the student enrollment protection.82 Children in conflict-affected areas are prone is to occur in Niger (79 percent), followed by Mauritania (26 to violence, and may be recruited and exploited by armed percent), Mali (24 percent), and Burkina Faso (23 percent). militias. UNICEF (2020) reported 571 serious violations At the same time, it is expected that the GER will increase against children in Mali in the first three quarters of 2019, an marginally, as population growth outstrips the expansion increase from 544 in 2018 and 386 in 2017. Over the same of supply. Only Chad, due to its high repetition rates, around period, 277 children were reported killed and maimed, more 17 percent, will manage to reach the GER of 100 percent. In than twice the number of 2018. Conflict accentuates access Mauritania, the GER in primary education was high already gaps in basic services such as sanitation, healthcare, and in 2018/19—98 percent, and it is expected to grow marginal- education. Scarce manpower and financial resources are ly by 3 percentage points. About 919,000 children (ages 6-11) rerouted from basic service delivery to addressing security will remain out of school in 2030, 27 percent more than the threats. Routine immunizations are difficult to administer. 724,000 children in 2019. Given the deficiencies in sanitation and health care services, Conflict in the Central Sahel countries (Burkina Faso, Mali, 82 The figures and analyses in this paragraph and the next are drawn from and Niger) has seriously threatened children’s care and UNICEF (2020). Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   41 Education progress, challenges, and strengths to build on in the Sahel countries Figure 26: Current number of refugees, asylum-seekers, refugee returnees, internally displaced people (IDP) and IDP returnees Mauritania 70,956 Mali 1,093,650 Niger 611,592 Chad 1,024,235 Burkina Faso 1,390,616 Source: https://r4sahel.info/en/situations/sahelcrisis children are at greater risk of contracting life-threatening move within the Sahel and beyond (Figure 26). Refugee pop- illnesses such as measles, malaria, diarrhea, and acute re- ulations are often concentrated in peripheral border areas spiratory illnesses. Conflicts also worsen food insecurity. that offer limited opportunities, which puts additional strains UNICEF’s food security projections showed that more than on local populations. Displacement is often protracted. IDPs 4.8 million people may have faced food insecurity during the have more than doubled in the past 2 years, reaching 7 per- 2020 lean season (June-August), a 50 per cent increase over cent of the population in Burkina Faso, with many living in 2019 predictions. UNICEF estimated that over 709,000 chil- secondary cities. This not only places additional burden on dren under age 5 are at risk of severe acute malnutrition in already weak education systems among host populations, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger in 2020. but requires tailored responses, given observed lower en- rollment among IDPs compared to their hosts or national Across the Central Sahel, attacks on schools, teachers, averages in many parts of the Sahel. However, there are en- and children are becoming more frequent, posing serious couraging experiences to build on in the region—for exam- disruptions to education. UNICEF reported that between ple, integrating schools in refugee camps into national sys- April 2017 and December 2019, school closures caused by tems in Chad, or expanding access to education to refugees violence increased by six times in Burkina Faso, Mali, and in Niger. In Burkina Faso, Mali, and Mauritania, rural-urban Niger. More than 3,300 schools were closed as of Decem- migration has been particularly rapid, with urban popula- ber 2019 affecting almost 650,000 children and more than tions increasing by 45 percent (Mauritania) to 67 percent 16,000 teachers. Schools were particularly targeted in some (Burkina Faso) between 2000 and 2019, and Mauritania now cases. More than 20 direct attacks against schools and ed- having over 50 percent of its population living in urban ar- ucation personnel had been reported during summer in eas. At the same time, 71 percent of Sahelians continue to live Burkina Faso and around the start of the academic year in in rural areas (driven by particularly low urbanization rates Niger and Mali, from July to October 2019. in Niger and Chad), including 20 million pastoralists. These diverse populations require contextualized and equitable Rapidly expanding populations, conflict and climate education delivery models that effectively build relevant and shocks, and a lack of basic services all contribute to high portable skills. rates of internal and cross-border migration, placing sig- nificant demands on education. Large numbers of forci- The COVID-19 pandemic has further disrupted education bly displaced people (IDPs, refugees, returnees), economic in the Sahel and is expected to significantly reduce learn- migrants, and migrants due to natural disasters are on the ing-adjusted years of schooling (LAYS), given limitations 42   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition Education progress, challenges, and strengths to build on in the Sahel countries Table 8: Distance learning interventions in the Sahel countries Mode of distance education Levels targeted Country Television Internet Radio Primary Secondary Burkina Faso ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Chad ✓ ✓ ✓ Mali ✓ ✓ ✓ Mauritania ✓ ✓ ✓ Grade 6 only ✓ Niger ✓ ✓ ✓ Source: Information from various internet sources combined by authors Figure 27: Effect of COVID-19 on learning-adjusted years of schooling (LAYS) in the Sahel countries Learning – Adjusted Years of Schooling (LAYS) Baseline 2.7 Niger 2.3 (-13.1%) Optimistic 2.3 (-13.1%) Pessimistic 2.8 Chad 2.5 (-12.4%) 2.4 (-15.2%) 2.6 Mali 2.4 (-7.8%) 2.3 (-10.9%) 4.2 Mauritania 3.8 (-10.4%) 3.8 (-10.4%) 4.5 Burkina Faso 4.3 (-5.5%) 4.2 (-8.2%) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 Source: Authors’ estimates, based on the World Bank’s Learning Loss Estimation Tool Notes: LAYS is an index equal to the product of two elements: average years of schooling and a measure of learning relative to a benchmark. Partial reopening of schools was not counted towards the duration of school closures in the optimistic scenario. The optimistic scenario assumed a higher degree of effectiveness for the distance education modes compared to the pessimistic scenario, based on survey data from low-income countries (World Bank; UNESCO; UNICEF, 2020). in distance education. Out of the full academic year 2020 phy and socioeconomic status. Given these limitations, LAYS of 8 months, COVID-19 related school closures ranged in the Sahel countries was expected to decrease by as much from 2 (Burkina Faso and Mali) to 4 months (Chad, Mauri- as 15 percent in Chad in the pessimistic scenario as shown tania, and Niger) in the Sahel countries, with an additional in Figure 27. month where schools were only partially open in Burkina Faso, Chad, and Mali. All 5 countries attempted some form Learning losses are likely to be more pronounced among of distance education for students, combining, television, girls. A global study by UNESCO reported that school clo- internet, and radio (see Table 8). While Burkina Faso, Chad, sures had adverse impacts on girls’ health and well-being and Mali extended these channels to primary and secondary and significantly hampered learning.84 Girls’ increased time students, Mauritania and Niger focused only on secondary spent at home often meant increased responsibilities within students. The low television and internet penetration rates in the household. Adolescent girls between the ages of 15 to 19 these countries83 mean that only a small proportion of stu- were found to have used the internet (including for distance dents in these countries are likely to have benefitted from education) much less often than boys. For instance, in Paki- these efforts, worsening the inequity of outcomes by geogra- stan, only 44% of girls surveyed reported owning a mobile phone, compared to 93% of boys. Similar disparities are like- 83 Internet penetration rates vary from 5 percent in Niger (2018) to 21 percent in ly present in the Sahel. Girls were also found to be less likely Mauritania (2017) (World Bank, 2021). Television penetration rates vary from 3 per- cent in Chad (2005) to 22 percent in Mali (2006) although the rates are likely to have increased since the 2000s (African Development Bank Group, 2017). 84 UNESCO (2021). Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   43 Education progress, challenges, and strengths to build on in the Sahel countries to return to school once they reopened. Lastly, the instance ministries in countries across West Africa. The Sahel’s de- of gender-based violence against girls also went up signifi- velopment partners are also taking an increasingly regional cantly during the crisis, affecting their well-being. approach, with key bilateral and multilateral donors coordi- nating through the Alliance Sahel since 2017. In addition to service delivery disruptions, fiscal pres- sures from the global pandemic threaten already limited In education, countries could further leverage these as- public and private spending on education. COVID-19 has sets for strategic collaboration and exploiting economies sparked the first SSA recession in 25 years, with commodity of scale, for example through coordinated development price declines and other revenue losses expanding deficits, and production of teaching and learning materials, build- pushing more countries towards debt distress, and limiting ing regional learning assessment capacities, and joint the scope for social spending.85 The economic contraction investment in postsecondary education and research. In will also push more households deeper into poverty and the subject areas such as science, mathematics, and languages, effects are expected to last for years to come. An additional countries could consider a continuum of cooperation op- 2.3 million Burkinabè and 3.8 million Malians could fall below tions, from standardizing textbooks based on a shared cur- the extreme poverty line by 2030 due to COVID-19 (around 8 riculum and examination regime, through to co-creating a percent86 and 14 percent87 of the respective populations).88 base set of materials which each country could then custom- In this context, the importance of protecting public spending ize. These types of partnerships have been used in the past— for education and other basic service delivery becomes even for example, until the 1970s, Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda more critical, and requires much greater attention to the ef- used shared curricula and established a regional examina- fectiveness of resources spent.89 tion authority—and offer potentially significant economies of scale in the development, production, and printing of text- books and teacher guides. CONFEMEN’s PASEC assessment 1.6. Leveraging regional strengths to offers a strong basis on which to build (Burkina Faso, Chad meet the Sahel’s education challenges and Niger participated in 2019). Mali and Mauritania’s partic- ipation could be encouraged for the next wave, and efforts to build each Sahel country’s national capacity to consistently 1.6.1. Regional cooperation offers promise for monitor student learning could be coordinated to facilitate improving education systems more efficiently best practice sharing and benchmarking. The Sahel countries enjoy a shared set of rich cultures and languages, as well as a history of regional coopera- 1.6.2. Strength of community commitment to tion with each other and beyond. The five countries share education commonalities in terms of their languages (particularly the prevalence of French and Arabic, in addition to native lan- Communities have traditionally played a key role in educa- guages spoken across borders), cultures, and religions, as tion in the Sahel, particularly in remote areas where the well as development challenges. The Sahel also has an es- government’s reach is weaker. In pre-colonial times, com- tablished history of regional cooperation platforms, dating munity-based koranic schools were the norm in the Sahel. In back to soon after independence, such as the 1959 Conseil return for the education of its children, the community sup- de l’Entente, which included Burkina Faso and Niger, and the ported the needs of the master and the school (food, shel- 1964 Lake Chad Basin Commission, which included Chad ter, livestock, etc.). Colonial-era schools set up by the French and Niger. Each Sahel country is part of at least one broad- were of a different character, more formal and distinct from er regional economic or security focused platform, such as communities, and generally did not garner as much trust. CENSAD (involving all five countries), ECOWAS (Burkina Faso, Connections between schools and the community may have Mali, and Niger among others), and WAEMU (involving Burki- eroded over time, especially in areas most affected by conflict na Faso, Mali, and Niger). In education, all five countries are and fragility, and in those seeing large inflows of IDPs or refu- part of CONFEMEN, which brings together the education gees. However, this can also be an opportunity to strengthen schools and state presence through partner support to ed- ucation services for forcibly displaced populations that are 85 International Monetary Fund (2021). 86 UN Populations Fund (2012a). also open to host communities. And community connections 87 UN Populations Fund (2012b). are still strong in many rural other areas without a large gov- 88 Brookings (2021). 89 Al-Samarrai and others (2020). ernment presence, providing an opportunity for schooling 44   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition Education progress, challenges, and strengths to build on in the Sahel countries improvements.90 However, this can also be an opportunity communities building 1,000 classrooms a year, four times to strengthen schools and state presence through partner more than the 250 planned. Communities assess demand support to education services for forcibly displaced popula- and submit proposals to the Ministry of Education, which tions that are also open to host communities. in turn funds projects through financing agreements mon- itored by engineers. The model has lowered costs by two- Community schools across the Sahel have boosted access thirds compared to centrally managed construction pro- to education, but face severe resource constraints in the cured through international tenders. Communities far from absence of state support. These schools are generally man- the capital reportedly produced “masterpieces”, with their aged directly by rural communities when there is no public high degree of social cohesion contributing to better gov- offer, creating strong local accountability mechanisms and ernance and oversight. Construction quality was judged to likely more efficient use of resources.91 However, communi- be fair through audits.93 Other countries in the region, such ty schools are also financed directly by households, the vast as Niger, have also tried this community-driven approach to majority of whom are in extreme poverty, representing an construction more recently. For this approach to work well inequitable burden and often severely limiting community in all parts of a country, it needs to be adapted to the FCV schools in terms of the inputs they can afford. In Chad, 39 setting. In areas characterized by higher insecurity, both percent of all primary schools were community schools, community cohesion and community capacity for project accounting for 27 percent of primary education enrollment management may be lower, and prices higher, so that invest- in the country, in 2020.92 Communities in Chad also direct- ments in these areas may require a higher degree of techni- ly paid for 26.5 percent of the overall teaching workforce in cal and financial support by concerned line ministries where 2020, and notably, 84 percent of teachers in rural areas are feasible. Additional attention also needs to be given to ensure community teachers. Community schools are also prevalent inclusion of minority ethnic groups in these initiatives, so as in Mali, particularly in rural areas but also in poor urban ar- to not inadvertently further increase their marginalization. eas that are overlooked for public services. Bagayako (2020) notes that the Malian government started the process of Communities can also be key contributors in efforts to transforming community schools into public schools, but boost learning, if given sufficient support. Some initiatives, nearly two-thirds of community schools were still without in the Sahel and Western & Central Africa more broadly, to government support as of 2019. The paper also document- provide communities with supplementary resources in the ed the poor conditions and financial struggles of community hopes of improving student outcomes have not succeeded, schools in an area of Bamako. due to community capacity constraints, power dynamics at the local level, and competing needs created by extreme Across the Sahel and Sub-Saharan Africa, communi- poverty. For example, an initiative to provide school manage- ty management of school construction is a consistently ment committees with grants to improve their schools in cost-effective and efficient approach to expanding or up- Niger found that while parents’ participation in school man- grading primary school infrastructure. As countries con- agement increased, student outcomes did not, due at least in tinue to struggle to expand their education systems quickly part to parents’ extremely low levels of education and ability enough to meet rapidly growing demand, cost-effective to effectively monitor teacher effort, as well as some SMCs’ approaches to construction are critical. At the primary edu- decision to invest grant resources in agriculture for the cation level, a careful study of experiences across SSA finds school.94 However, another initiative in Niger supported by that community-managed construction is among the most the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), “School cost-effective and efficient mechanisms, with more projects for All”, provided both technical and financial support for re- completed on time and to standards, at lower cost. The Sa- medial extracurricular activities in basic mathematics led by hel countries have several successful experiences that could teachers, parents, and community members. This approach be drawn upon. Mauritania for instance has successfully resulted in significant catch-up in number recognition and leveraged this approach over several decades. In 1989, the basic math operations for grade 1-4 students, and this model Mauritanian Ministry of Education made the bold decision has been extended to over 40,000 schools in Africa (in Burki- of making parents’ associations fully in-charge of school na Faso, Cote d’Ivoire, Mali, Madagascar and with GPE grant construction management. The approach bore results, with support in Senegal).95 These divergent experiences suggest that communities can contribute to improving student learn- 90 See for instance Boyle (2019). 91 For evidence from Central America on the impacts of community management 93 Theuynck (2009). of schools, see Di Gropello (2006) and Ganimian Murnane (2016). 94 Beasley and Huillery (2017). 92 World Bank (2019a). 95 Maruyama (2018). Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   45 Education progress, challenges, and strengths to build on in the Sahel countries Figure 28: Share of students enrolled in private with support of partners.96 Across the Sahel, formally rec- schools in 2016 ognized private schools generally charge higher fees than public schools and therefore cater mainly to richer house- Primary Secondary holds. In Chad for instance, private education tuition costs in 2017-2018 ranged on average from $100 in primary schools Niger 16 3 to $166 at the secondary level annually, while average annual schooling costs in public school were $3 for the primary level Mauritania 27 and $42 in secondary.97,98 14 Private schools in the Sahel seem to have better facilities Mali 39 37 and lower rates of teacher absence. The 2015 Niger SDI survey found that teachers in private schools are nearly 90 percent less likely to be absent from school and 57 percent Chad 15 12 less likely to be absent from class than their public sector counterparts. The 2017 Mauritania SDI similarly found that private school teachers were around 35 percent less likely Burkina Faso 40 19 to be absent than their public-school counterparts. Facili- ties are also generally better in private schools, with private Source: Authors’ illustration based on data from UNESCO Institute of Statistics. school pupils in Niger being two to three times more likely to have a toilet that meets any condition, and around three ing if provided tailored technical support based on local ca- times more likely to be in a school with the minimum teach- pacities. ing equipment. Taken together, these experiences point to communities However, global evidence on the effectiveness of private as a strong asset for education in the Sahel. Approaches schools is inconclusive, including on initiatives to bring to using that asset need to be adjusted to the level of fragil- private providers into extremely low-capacity public sys- ity and social cohesion in an area, but it can be a powerful tems. The WDR 2018 notes that the evidence comparing tool. While financial burdens should be shifted over time to learning outcomes across public and private schools is in- the state, communities should continue to be leveraged to consistent. Available evidence tends not to account for the manage basic infrastructure expansion and the operation of generally better socioeconomic backgrounds of private schools. This approach—of public financing and community school students. However, there have been several exam- management—can help the Sahel deliver primary education ples of rigorous evaluations of education sector PPPs in to more children. In addition, communities may potentially be both developed and developing country contexts. In 2016, the most effective managers for pre-primary education ser- the Liberian government introduced the Liberian Education vices as well, a topic which will be revisited later. Advancement Program or “LEAP”—a PPP for school man- agement. The government engaged eight private players to manage 93 public schools, covering 8.6 percent of the total 1.6.3. Possibilities created by non-state public school student population. The government financed education providers providers on a per-capita basis and disallowed ability-based selection or school fees, although providers could fundraise. Private education is increasingly prevalent in the Sahel. A The government continued to pay teachers as civil servants. significant proportion of primary and secondary students Schools had to follow the Liberian national curriculum, but attend formally recognized, private secular or private faith- had flexibility in running their operations, as long as they based schools in the Sahel countries (Figure 28). Mali and covered any additional costs. An impact evaluation showed Burkina Faso have the largest formal private school sectors mixed results.99 Private management produced better liter- by enrollment share at the primary level. Mali has the largest acy and numeracy outcomes than public schools, but costs at the secondary level, and the government provides publicly financed vouchers for students to attend private schools, as 96 See World Bank (2021d). there is insufficient capacity in public schools. While signifi- 97 World Bank (2016). cant governance and oversight issues have emerged in this 98 Calculations for average annual schooling costs are based on Chad EHCVM, 2018. arrangement, the government is addressing them actively, 99 Romero and others (2020). 46   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition Education progress, challenges, and strengths to build on in the Sahel countries were high and the largest provider pushed excess students students are awarded the Ijaza or “license” which grants and teachers out of the schools it managed. Sexual abuse its holder the authority to teach Quran recitation or memo- of students was also a problem in the case of at least two of rization. Several governments have attempted programs to the providers. modernize Koranic schools, to bring them a step closer to public schools, giving rise to “modern” or “renovated” Ko- Recognizing and incorporating Koranic schools into ranic schools. There is large variation in the curriculum in the formal education system these schools, as it depends on the initiative of the religious Koranic schools are an integral part of the school land- teachers. Most retain the memorization of the Quran as their scape in Sahel countries. Koranic schools aim to prepare mainstay, but add Islamic sciences, Arabic, a national or of- children to be good citizens, understood in the sense of be- ficial language, and some mathematics and life skills. Some coming good Muslims with strong moral values in the ser- Koranic schools may also start the process of modernization vice of their communities. This “traditional” vision is quite dif- hoping for eventual recognition by the State, which could ferent from the “modern” economic view, according to which come with financial aid or subsidies. good citizens are individuals with the necessary skills to lead their professional and personal lives in a largely secular con- The landscape of schools offering Islamic religious in- text. Koranic schools have been a feature of Sahel countries struction has evolved over time and is now fairly varie- since pre-colonial times and reflect the Islamic character gated. Post-independence, the region saw the establish- of these countries, whereas secular public schools were in- ment of “Arabo-Islamic schools” (also called “medersas” troduced by French colonists. Following their independence or “mahadras”) which are typically formal private schools from France in the 1960s, Sahel governments continued to affiliated with Arabic religious institutions. These schools espouse secular values in their constitutions, even as they act as a bridge between an Islamic and secular education, presided over largely Muslim populations, with only Mau- and teach regular curriculum subjects such as mathematics ritania choosing to declare itself an Islamic republic. Ac- and literacy in addition to Islamic religious studies. The focus cordingly, the countries mostly retained the legacy secular of the religious component is more on understanding and public-school systems, while Islamic schools have continued interpreting the Quran and less on rote memorization. Ara- to operate in parallel without broad support or recognition bic is typically the medium of instruction, but French is also from governments.100 offered as a second language. These schools are generally overseen by the ministries of education, which dictate their Koranic schools are not formally recognized by most Sa- non-religious curriculum. Students typically receive primary hel governments but are estimated to serve over 20 per- school completion certificates which are generally recog- cent of currently out-of-school children and youth. The nized by the governments, as well as private diplomas which term “Koranic schools” is generally used to refer to infor- may or may not be recognized by governments. To cater to mal schools which focus on the memorization of the Quran. the demand for a dual secular and Islamic religious educa- These schools are generally not recognized or supported by tion among parents, Sahel governments have also set up governments, except in Mauritania where they are recog- public “Franco-Arab schools” overseen by the ministries of nized but not financially supported.101 There is little to no over- education. These schools typically adopt the national secu- sight on Koranic schools, with most countries placing them lar curriculum, but also include some religious studies in the loosely under the charge of their religious affairs ministries, curriculum. The medium of instruction tends to be French, rather than education ministries. They are typically located with Arabic offered as a second language. Students receive in the community, and vary in size from a few students taught diplomas and primary school completion certificates which by a single teacher to larger schools with several teachers. are recognized by governments.102 Koranic schools generally use Arabic or local languages as their medium of instruction. Arabic is often taught to the Data on Koranic school enrollments is patchy. None of the extent necessary for the memorization of the Quran, but Sahel countries include Koranic schools in annual statistics not as a functional language that students can use in their published by education ministries, with Niger including infor- daily lives. Rote memorization is the dominant pedagogy, mation on only renovated Koranic schools. However, house- but instruction also tends to be individualized, relying on the hold survey data suggests that large shares of out of school teacher’s assessment of each student’s progress. The best children and youth (ages 6-15) are in fact attending informal Koranic schools—from roughly 10 percent in Burkina Faso 100 See for instance Lozneanu and Humeau (2014) or Roy and Humeau (2018). 101 Roy and Humeau (2018). 102 Roy and Humeau (2018). Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   47 Education progress, challenges, and strengths to build on in the Sahel countries and Mauritania to over 40 percent in Chad (Table 9). Some Table 9: Share of out-of-school children and children attend Koranic schools prior to joining the formal youth (ages 6-15) reported as enrolled in infor- education system, which could help explain the particularly mal Koranic schools across the Sahel low rates of enrollment among 6- and 7-year-old children discussed earlier. In addition, some children also attend Burkina Faso 10% Koranic schools before or after the school hours of official Chad 42% schools, suggesting that these Koranic schools serve an even larger share of children overall. Mali 23% Mauritania 13% Faith and values are key reasons why parents choose Islamic schools, formal and informal. In a 2010 fieldwork Niger 26% study in Burkina Faso, 83.9 percent of participants with chil- Source: Authors’ estimates based on EHCVM 2018 for Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, and dren in Islamic schools cited the opportunity to receive a Niger; and EPCV 2019 for Mauritania. religious education as a key reason for their school choice, with smaller proportions listing academic (25.8 percent) or teacher (12.9 percent) quality. In public schools, location spend some time in Koranic schools, followed by some time (70 percent), academic quality (46.7 percent), and costs (30 in formal schools to cover the primary school curriculum in percent) were key drivers. Around one-third of Islamic and an accelerated fashion.106 Christian school parents cited education on moral values as a driver, whereas none of the public-school parents did Attempts to integrate secular elements in Koranic schools so.103 have not yet succeeded at scale. There have been several experiments in modernizing Koranic schools in the Sahel While parents increasingly recognize the value of sec- countries over the past two decades, but most are too new, ular education, not all parents are willing to relinquish short-lived, or small-scale to be evaluated thoroughly. An ex- an Islamic religious education in favor of secular public ample is the renovation of selected Koranic schools in Niger schools. The large growth in public school enrollment rates with the support of the Islamic Development Bank. While this across the region is a sign that parents see the utility of a experience showed some encouraging results, the model secular education. However, there is still some resistance has not been extended widely as success often came at sig- to secular education, in part due to its associations with the nificant cost.107 Several hundred modern Koranic schools in colonial era, lack of religious or spiritual education, and often Niger receive some form of monetary support from the gov- poor conditions and learning outcomes.104 These dynamics ernment, but these represent only a small proportion of all are playing out differently in each Sahel country. In Mali for Koranic schools in the country. instance, between the academic year 1999-2000 and 2015- 2016, the public-school enrollment in the first phase of basic Consultations towards developing a formal framework education (ages 6-12) doubled from around 750,000 to 1.5 for recognizing Koranic schools have often been very million students, whereas the enrollment in Madrasas (Ara- slow and failed to build consensus within society. For in- bo-Islamic schools) increased five-fold from around 68,000 stance, Mali held a national forum on Koranic schools in to 360,000 students.105 2008, and this resulted in the setup of a Reflection Com- mission on the Integration of Koranic Schools. The govern- Koranic schools will need to be recognized as partners to ment also showed some commitment to the Koranic school reach children who are unlikely to participate in the for- sector between 2010 to 2013, but Islamic schools were not mal education system, although the process of recogni- mentioned in its subsequent 10-year plan.108 Even if there tion is challenging. A first step towards such partnerships is political will, results are limited given the high degree of requires the introduction of content from the official curric- social and political sensitivity of the issue, as well as the dif- ulum, particularly language and math, into Koranic schools. ficulty of securing buy-in and commitment from stakehold- There are different models for this introduction, including ers. The reluctance of many Koranic teachers and commu- “integration” of Koranic and secular education within the nities to accept the concept of modernization continues to same schools, as well as “articulation”, whereby children 103 Wodon (2014). 106 Lozneanu and Humeau (2014). 104 Lozneanu and Humeau (2014). 107 World Bank (2020e). 105 World Bank (2019b). 108 Lozneanu and Humeau (2014). 48   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition Education progress, challenges, and strengths to build on in the Sahel countries Box 1. Key government initiatives for more and better learning: Examples from Mali, Mauritania, and Niger Student level • Remote-learning solutions to address school closure: continuous learning programs through the use of television, radio, community radio, and high-speed internet for online learning (Mali, Mauritania, Niger) • Enhanced focus on girls’ education: holistic approach to support girls’ attendance and completion of secondary education through a full package of interventions to remove social barriers and build social-emotional skills (Mali, Mauritania, Niger) • Student performance tracking: using digital solutions to regularly collect and analyze detailed information on what students have learned in the classroom for providing remedial education (Mali) Teacher level • Digital innovations for schools in crisis: distance training programs for community-volunteers in conflict- affected areas to address school closure, coachingof teachers at a distance. (Mali, Niger) • Based on an audit’s recommendations, implementation of a package of policies and interventions to improve the curriculum, training method, and organizational environment at ENI-ENS (Mauritania, Niger) • Integration of the existing computerized teacher training monitoring system into a harmonized Education Management Information System (EMIS) (Mali, Niger) System level • Technological solutions to strengthen education management (Mali, Mauritania, Niger) • Digitalization of educational resources (Mali, Mauritania, Niger) • Digitrucks in school and teacher training colleges (Mali, Niger) • Introduction of simple results-based financing mechanisms in the education system (Mali, Mauritania, Niger) be a major stumbling block.109 One source of reluctance schools more quickly. However, these initiatives remain very among many Koranic teachers may be that because they marginal to date and have not been scaled. The schools also lack formal schooling, there is no pathway for them to be- tend to serve a small minority of children, since most Koran- come civil servants. ic school children do not successfully memorize the Quran. Lastly, the insufficient teaching of French or Arabic in Ko- Pathways to allow students to articulate from Koranic ranic schools makes it challenging for children to transition schools to formal schools tend to be marginal. Mauritania successfully into formal schools where these languages are is exceptional in allowing students to crossover from infor- essential.110 mal Koranic schools to formal Arabo-Islamic schools, pro- vided the schools are recognized by the government and the student can demonstrate competency in Arabic, an official 1.6.4. National reform initiatives in the region language. However, this is difficult in practice as children crossing over are much older (sometimes 11-13-years-old). At least in terms of initiatives and high-level announced Elsewhere, private initiatives have also led to the establish- commitments, there is substantial ownership and com- ment of “bridge schools” which enroll 9-12-year-old children munication around education in the region. For example, who have memorized the Quran and assist them to com- in Niger the President has committed after meeting with plete the equivalent of primary school education in 3 years. stakeholders to introduce a compulsory two-year National The children can then enroll in formal Arabo-Islamic or Civic Service for all higher education graduates. One goal Franco-Arab schools after fulfilling any entry criteria. These of this program is to make available to the education minis- schools are premised on children having developed their tries a cadre of graduates with a high level of competence. In cognitive abilities through the memorization of the Quran Mauritania and Burkina Faso, the governments have recently (rote memorization and concentration particularly), which launched inclusive national consultations around education would enable them to acquire knowledge and skills in formal to address the key issues through new policy reforms. In 109 Roy and Humeau (2018). 110 Roy and Humeau (2018). Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   49 Education progress, challenges, and strengths to build on in the Sahel countries Mali, a holistic ten-year national education program (Pro- lored to the FCV context and translated into implementation gramme Décennal de Développement de l’Education Deux- at school level. Too often, high-minded policies fail to over- ième Génération, 2019-2028) aims to revamp the education come the barriers that block change (especially change to system to improve service delivery. It also takes on the prob- improve quality) throughout the system. lem of school closure due to conflict and insecurity, which continues to be a significant challenge for the government The rest of this White Paper discusses how the region and education stakeholders. can build on these strengths and high-level commitment to make real progress and thus claim the future. It opens High-level statements of commitment and national plans by proposing a set of focused and ambitious goals—in learn- offer a promising start, but they need to be translated to ing poverty, girls’ secondary education, and adult literacy— more action and outcomes. Given the extent of the chal- combined with game-changer policies to achieve them over lenges laid out above, improving education outcomes needs the next few years. It then describes the long-term system to be a much higher priority in day-to-day decision-making, strengthening that will be necessary to sustain progress in and high-level commitments and projects need to be tai- these areas. 50   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition 2. A NEW STRATEGIC APPROACH FOR WORLD PHOTO BY: © OLLIVIER GIRARD / WORLD BANK BANK SUPPORT—QUICK WINS, SUSTAINED PROGRESS Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   51 A new strategic approach for World Bank support—quick wins, sustained progress 2.1. Focused and ambitious goals 5 years and could sow the seeds for a longer-term flourish- catalyzed by political commitment ing of the education system. They are not miracle cures; they will require true political commitment and good technical The problems laid out above will not be fully resolved easi- design, as well as increased financing in some cases. But ly or quickly, but there are many reasons for hope, and the they can yield noticeable improvements in outcomes. current moment offers real opportunity to make change happen. They are the product of many years of poverty, con- These game-changers need to be combined with policies flict, poor management, and lack of real political will. Revers- for long-term system strengthening. Such policies will take ing them will take a similarly long-term sustained approach, longer to bear fruit, which is why it is crucial to put them in with domestic leadership and commitment accompanied by place now. But paired with the game-changers, they can lead international support. Despite these challenges, there are to sustained improvements in education outcomes, both in many reasons for hope. First, there have been positive devel- the next few years and in the decades to come. opments in the region that lay the foundation for rapid ac- tion and sustained progress. The progress in improving en- To keep its efforts focused on the most pressing challeng- rollment has been encouraging, and the regional strengths es, the World Bank’s strategy in the Sahel will be guided discussed above demonstrate how the Sahel countries are by three targets. There are many needs throughout the working around limitations posed by inadequate nation- education systems of these five countries, and the Bank will al education systems. Second, although the pandemic has continue to provide support where they request it. But to exacerbated the education challenges, the Sahel countries have an impact will require greater focus on the most fun- can also use it as a chance to accelerate progress. With damental need: ensuring that children, youth, and young the school closures, the immediate threats to access and adults—especially women and girls—develop the founda- learning will have become salient to everyone, not just to tional skills they need for life and work. Setting these targets education experts. This awareness could increase societal will sharpen that focus operationally. Accordingly, the three willingness to do what it takes to invest in this generation targets are: of children. And because some of the best interventions for learning recovery are also those that will strengthen educa- 1. Cut learning poverty, as a necessary condition for tion over the longer term, the Sahel countries could ride the sustainable growth and development momentum from better policies today to stronger systems tomorrow. • 2025 target: Reduce learning poverty rate by 9 per- centage points, from 88 percent to 79 percent Most importantly, there are policies and programs that • 2030 target: Reduce learning poverty rate to 67% could be game-changers for schooling and learning in the • Impact by 2030: Total of 13.8 million children in short to medium term. If implemented quickly, these inter- school and able to read, or an additional 10.2 mil- ventions could make a substantial difference in the next 3 to lion children Figure 29: Strategic approach to investing in education in the Sahel STRATEGIC APPROACH TO EDUCATION IN THE SAHEL Today 2025 2030 Game-changers for quick progress and building momentum Support a resilient recovery by advancing on critial education goals by 2025 Medium-term policies and investments for sustainability Invest in system strengthening for continued progress for 2030 and beyond Basis for interventions: • Scale what works, focus on highest priorities for equitable growth • Informed by global evidence, regional experiences, and most promising old and new technology Source: Authors 52   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition A new strategic approach for World Bank support—quick wins, sustained progress 2. Increase girls’ education, to break the intergenera- And to make this high-level commitment actionable, experi- tional cycle of low human capital ence suggests that it needs to be concrete, not general—for example by focusing on the goal of having all children in safe • 2025 target: Increase girls’ secondary gross en- schools and reading by grade 4. Achieving all this calls for rollment rate (GER) by 12 percentage points, from courageous leadership and not just rhetorical commitment to 31 percent to 43 percent the sector. As such, political engagement needs to be shared • 2030 target: Increase girls’ secondary GER to 52 by and reflected in the choices of officials throughout the bu- percent reaucracy, to support shared commitment by the overall soci- • Impact by 2030: Total of 3.3 million girls in second- ety. But fostering a societal commitment requires that stake- ary school, or an additional 2.0 million girls holders understand the objective. Therefore, signals coming not just from the minister of education, but also from the pres- 3. Raise the young adult literacy rate, with a focus on ident or prime minister, will be most powerful, especially if they young women, by providing them with basic literacy go along with clear support from the minister of finance. and numeracy skills that could improve labor force productivity and foster empowerment by comple- At the same time, this top-down commitment should be menting job-focused skills training accompanied by bottom-up support from communities. Catalyzing this requires engaging communities with mes- • 2025 target: Raise the young adult literacy rate by sages about how the government is improving education 10 percentage points, from 51% to 60% and holding itself accountable for all children learning. This • 2030 target: Raise the young adult literacy rate to is especially warranted in fragile and conflict-affected set- 68% tings like the Sahel, where rebuilding or strengthening trust • Impact by 2030: Total of 26.5 million literate young between the state and communities may require more effort adults, of which 11.8 million are female; this will be and investment from governments. As efforts are mobilized an additional 13.4 million young adults, of which 6.5 to reinstate the social contract, it might also help to involve million are female communities in the management of schools by giving par- ents and other community members a greater stake in the The methodology for setting the three targets is based on success of the reforms. Given the historical social constraints and in line with the approach used in World Bank’s forth- on the involvement of women and minority socio-economic coming Western & Central Africa Education Strategy. The groups in managing schools, one priority in this engagement projection of the adult literacy and girls’ secondary educa- should be to ensure that these populations are well repre- tion targets was limited to two scenarios: (a) the “three fast- sented and engaged in community management. Building est” scenario, in which the average yearly growth rate for the sustained community involvement is a longer-term objective three of the five Sahel countries with the fastest growth are (see below), but it can start during the initial campaign to sig- applied to the 2019 rates, and (b) the “four fastest” scenario, nal commitment. in which the average yearly growth rate for the four of the five Sahel countries with the fastest growth are applied to This combination of top-down and bottom-up political the 2019 rates. Only the results from the “three fastest” sce- commitment can begin to build accountability for results. nario are currently reported in the report. On the learning Making political leaders, teachers, principals, and the soci- poverty target, the simulation used several scenarios based ety in general accountable is crucial as it provides the best on the rates of improvement between 2014 and 2019 PASEC chance of shifting the political economy calculations of key assessments. The detailed methodological note and as- actors and orienting the system toward better education and sumptions are presented in the annex. learning. This can furthermore support the longer-term goal of improving the professionalism of teachers and principals The first step toward achieving these ambitious targets is which are at the front line in education delivery and there- to build strong political commitment. Commitment should fore are key actors to move education systems in the Sahel start from the top with clear signals from senior political towards achieving higher quality. leaders that real education—meaning schooling with learn- ing—for all is a top priority. “All” must be understood to include Then, in the short term—especially over the next year—it marginalized populations and those affected by conflict; these is critical to use this political commitment to reverse the populations suffer the most from failings in the education sys- impacts of the COVID-19 school closures. Learning loss- tems, and their unique challenges require special attention. es and increased dropout risk reversing years of progress. Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   53 A new strategic approach for World Bank support—quick wins, sustained progress Unless the Sahel countries focus on minimizing those costs all the others. The following sections describe the what, why, over the next year or two, then when they set out to tackle the and how of each game-changer, laying out guideposts which problems that already existed before COVID-19, they will find each Sahel country could utilize to develop its specific initia- themselves having to climb out of a much deeper hole. Key tives. policies for doing this are: • Tracking which students have not returned to school 2.2. Game-changers: Policies and and devising outreach measures targeted at groups programs that can quickly make that are at greatest risk progress towards the three goals • Equipping teachers to do basic assessments of stu- dents’ learning levels, to shine a light on learning losses • Giving teachers the pedagogical tools and learning 2.2.1. Reducing learning poverty materials needed to recover foundational skills Reducing learning poverty in the next 3-5 years will re- Speed is essential for these measures, to prevent longer-term quire immediate and concerted action on 3 major fronts: “scarring” through dropout and lost learning. Evidence from improving early childhood development, efficiently ex- past school-closure shocks indicates that girls and women panding access to decent primary school, and improving are at especially high risk of dropout; in Sierra Leone, when the effectiveness of early-grade teaching. To make a dif- schools reopened after the Ebola crisis cost nearly an entire ference quickly in each of these areas, it will be important to academic year, girls were 16 percentage points less likely to track progress against measurable goals in such areas as be in school.111 Forcibly displaced populations and marginal- children’s cognitive and physical development, and teaching ized socio-economic groups are also at particular risk of not practices in classrooms. returning to school. Even when students do return to school, evidence from Pakistan (after a major earthquake closed Improving early childhood development schools) shows that learning gaps can continue to grow sub- Governments need to set children on high-development stantially after school reopening if they are not remediated trajectories through early childhood nutrition, stimula- quickly.112 tion, and care. Two sets of priorities stand out from suc- cessful experiences. First, targeting mothers and their ba- This approach can turn the “building back better” slogan bies with health and nutrition interventions during the first into reality. There has been a lot of talk since the pandem- 1,000 days to improve maternal and infant outcomes, reduce ic hit about “building back better” or “rebuilding better.” This malnutrition, and foster physiological development. Second, can be more than a slogan: many of these policies designed increasing the frequency and quality of stimulation and op- to reverse learning losses are also those that can strengthen portunities for learning at home to improve language and student outcomes over the longer term if they are sustained. motor development, as well as to cultivate early cognitive and Recovery and system strengthening are not two separate socioemotional skills.113 activities to be implemented in sequence; they are intimately related, and the former, if well designed, can contribute to the In the short term, parenting interventions through cash latter. transfer programs offer a direct way to support poor families. The Niger Government launched a nationwide Building on these immediate measures, a set of safety net program in 2011, which has since reached over game-changers can deliver substantial progress over the 100,000 households. The program provides small, regular short term—that is, the next 3 to 5 years. Once leadership unconditional transfers to women in poor households, and has signaled its commitment in the short term, both rhe- trains women on parenting practices related to nutrition, torically and with immediate post-COVID-19 response, that psycho-social stimulation, health, and sanitation. The behav- signal can create a climate for medium-term policies to de- ioral change intervention was implemented with community liver results over the next 3 to 5 years. These game-changers support at a relatively low cost of around 20 percent of cash include interventions aimed at each of the three targets, as transfers. Premand & Barry (2020) observed significant well as an overall game-changer that is essential to support changes on all these aspects of parenting among beneficia- ry households, and spillovers in proximate non-beneficiary 111 Bandiera and others (2019). 112 Andrabi and others (2020). 113 World Bank (2018). 54   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition A new strategic approach for World Bank support—quick wins, sustained progress households. However, cash transfers alone, without the distance education in low-resource settings. More recently, behavioral change intervention, did not improve parenting sparked in part by the COVID-19 pandemic, several countries behavior. There were only moderate improvements in so- are utilizing radio to reach as many parents as possible with cio-emotional development, and no observable impacts on information and encouragement to support their children’s children’s physical (height and weight), and cognitive devel- development at home.117 In the Sahel, lessons could be drawn opment. The authors suggest that this could be due to the from successful experiences with radio campaigns under extremely low baseline nutrition levels and the absence of the Sahel Women’s Empowerment and Demographic Divi- child stimulation activities, such that even the improvements dend (SWEDD) Project to develop and deploy effective con- in these parenting dimensions were unable to move the nee- tent on parenting. Given the high rate of penetration of mo- dle in terms of children’s human capital development. bile telephony in the region, parents of young children could also be given tools and encouragement through messages Building parenting education and behavior change inter- sent to their mobile phones. ventions into the Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Pro- gram could reach large numbers of poor and vulnerable Beyond parenting supports, Sahel countries must also be- children quickly. In the Sahel, Adaptive Social Protection gin investing seriously today in clean water and health ser- (ASP) could help poor and vulnerable communities to build vices. Child development requires coordinated interventions resilience against shocks such as climate change and the across multiple sectors. Interventions in education or par- COVID-19 pandemic. The Sahel Adaptive Social Protection enting behaviors, without improvements in sanitation and Program (SASP), supported by the World Bank and partners, health services are unlikely to improve child development. reached 2 million people across the Sahel in its first phase Some participants in the Niger study discussed above com- and is now in its second phase.114 A multi-country randomized plained of health clinics rejecting requests to treat children control trial of the SASP is underway, and has found prom- for malnutrition, or the lack of access to clean water access ising results in Niger on key indicators of livelihoods.115 Sus- giving rise to diseases in children. 118 tained improvements in beneficiaries’ livelihoods could be strongly complemented by effective parenting interventions, Efficiently expand access to decent primary schools learning from Niger’s experience described above. Two priorities hold promise for efficient and rapid expan- sion of access to decent primary school: increasing the To foster children’s cognitive development, children should supply of public infrastructure through community-man- have access to reading materials and caregivers that are aged construction and upgrading, and integrating infor- able to guide them. More and better interactions between mal students through results-based partnerships with caregivers and children, and efforts to read to children in Koranic schools. These approaches would leverage existing early years could help boost language ability and cognitive strengths in the Sahel, as discussed above, and offer ways to development, and positively impact school preparedness expand the critical public service of primary education with- and learning outcomes downstream. Children need a sup- in the constraints of the state. However, neither is a panacea, portive home reading environment even beyond their early and both require substantial commitment of public financing years, to complement the teaching of literacy in school. The as well as effective governance arrangements to work. World Bank’s Read@Home initiative supports efforts in this direction with the delivery of reading and learning materials As discussed earlier, community management of school to remote areas, and advice for parents and family members construction is a consistently cost-effective and efficient to enhance their child’s learning. The initiative could be co- approach to expanding school infrastructure. Success- ordinated with the SASP to target beneficiary families with a ful community-managed construction programs require strong set of parenting resources and supports.116 governments to empower communities with informa- tion, resources, and technical support. Community-man- For large-scale reach at relatively low cost, radio commu- aged construction works when different stakeholders work nication campaigns for behavior change offer a potentially in concert. The government needs to establish norms for promising approach. Radio remains one of the most wide- school planning and school models (for instance, home to spread communications technologies across the Sahel and school distances, classroom and school sizes, and minimum has consistently been shown to be an effective approach to infrastructure provisions and facilities for each school). Pref- 114 World Bank (2020f). 115 Bossuroy and Premand (2021). 117 Zacharia Sharon (2020). 116 World Bank (2020g). 118 Berman (2017). Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   55 A new strategic approach for World Bank support—quick wins, sustained progress Figure 30: Delegation of school construction management to local communities is the most cost- effective approach to primary school construction Public Private Goverment Semi public and NGO sectors Private sector Communities Centralized Central Large national School community government contractor requests financing for (MoE) Sings Financing its school project Agreement with CBO for the construction Medium contractor of the school Local government Small contractor Local community Pr oc Executes works u res Provides support Village/Neighborhood wo rks Decentralized Contributes School community School building to work School institution Source: Theunyck (2009) Figure 31: Key stakeholders must work in erably, local authorities should sign contracts with the local collaboration for community-managed communities, monitor and evaluate the progress of con- construction struction regularly. Entities such as parents’ associations or school management committees that involve key community members should undertake the responsibility of managing construction activities on behalf of the community, as seen Local governments from Mauritania’s example. The private sector could be in- Ministry of Education delegate school set the rules of the construction to volved in actual school construction and technical oversight. game and monitors communities through Streamlined procurement processes with standard school their application contractual agreements specifications, simplified contracts, and local competitive bidding are the other essential components of this model. Recognizing Koranic schools as a key part of the educa- tion landscape is an important first step. Governments School building should legally recognize Koranic schools and acknowledge Private sector Communities execute the works, their role in society. They should also start including Koranic implement their supplies materials school construction schools in censuses and annual statistics published by ed- project and services to communities ucation ministries. Statistics should be granular enough to identify the specific school type, and differentiate between students that attend only Koranic schools from those who at- tend both Koranic and formal schools. This will give a better Source: Theunyck (2009) picture of school demand patterns and allow governments to track the impact of education policies on these patterns. 56   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition A new strategic approach for World Bank support—quick wins, sustained progress Sahel countries also need to redouble their efforts to en- be trained in teaching the formal school curriculum. If there gage religious leaders and teachers to jointly create a vi- is enough buy-in from the community and religious leaders, sion for the future of dual education. Religious leaders may governments could also consider twinning Koranic schools not support an interventionist state, and may instead prefer with formal public schools as an interim step, so that children to retain autonomy over the running of Koranic schools. An can obtain some basic literacy and numeracy education open engagement process could go a long way in formu- alongside their religious education. lating policy options that could address such tensions. En- gagements should not be limited to prominent figures, but Government capacity to oversee and support Koranic should extend to religious teachers running Koranic schools, schools effectively will need to be strengthened. Alongside and parents of children attending the full range of Islamic the recognition of Koranic schools in the law, governments schools. Through these engagements, governments should should transfer the responsibility of Koranic schools to their understand religious leaders’ and parents’ views on educa- ministries of education. Such direct oversight would facilitate tion options, and the reasons underlying their school choic- modernization efforts. Mali for instance already has a direc- es. Governments should also identify any impediments to the torate of religious education within its education ministry integration of the formal curriculum in Koranic schools or which looks after formal Islamic schools, and could expand the successful articulation of children from Koranic schools its mandate to also cover Koranic schools. Education minis- to formal schools. tries may need to tailor their approaches to support Koranic schools in view of their unique nature. For instance, govern- With a shared vision established, governments can work ments may need to streamline curricula given the split of the to modernize Koranic schools using performance-based school day across religious and secular subjects, and work contracts. Financial incentives could be tied to the introduc- with the use of Arabic or local languages as the medium of tion of the official curriculum determined by the ministries of instruction in these schools. Where possible, governments education, alongside the Islamic religious curriculum in the should leverage strengths of Koranic schools instead of Koranic schools. The contracts would build trust between force-fitting formal school models into the Koranic school the governments and the religious community, in that the context. For instance, the high degree of personalization of government would support any efforts by the community to instruction in Koranic schools could be leveraged to teach to modernize schools. Governments could start with schools the level of the student. This will take strong collaboration be- that are more inclined towards reform—those that are look- tween education ministries and the Koranic schools, but with ing to boost employability of their graduates through founda- potentially rich payoffs. tional and job-oriented skills, for instance—before extending the approach further. The World Bank’s Quality Improvement Articulation pathways from Koranic schools to formal and Equity of Basic Education Project in Senegal has sup- schools also need to be established. To ease the transition, ported a daara (traditional Koranic schools in Senegal) im- governments can consider expanding existing structures provement program, in which daaras receive funds through such as bridge schools, or where there is critical mass, have performance-based contracts, on condition that they pro- separate catch-up classes in formal schools before children vide foundational skills (reading and numeracy) to students. join regular classrooms. Such catch-up classes should be The original project benefited around 14,000 students in 100 targeted and pitched to the level of the student in order to daaras and is being scaled up to 500 daaras under a second maximize the use of time, and in view of the possibly wide phase to reach 36,000 students. The World Bank’s Learning variance in age and knowledge level of Koranic school stu- Improvement for Results in Education Project in Niger uses dents as they transit to the mainstream school system. Gov- a similar mechanism, but also includes targets for health ernments should also open examinations at key junctures to provisions such as deworming within the contracts. Beyond children from all backgrounds, including those from Koranic the Sahel, relevant lessons could be learned from Indone- schools. These could serve as entry points for children from sia’s well-established governance and financing systems for Koranic schools into formal education. religious schools, based on the fundamental requirement that they teach the national curriculum.119 To sustain such Strengthening the existing Franco-Arab and Arabo-Islam- arrangements, Sahel governments will need to expand ave- ic schools could prompt Koranic schools to modify service nues for teachers in Koranic schools to receive some form delivery to service the demand for a dual education. We of pre-service or in-service training, as most are unlikely to earlier recognized the need for a dual education among par- ents. Franco-Arab and Arabo-Islamic schools in the Sahel 119 See for example World Bank (2019c). service the demand from parents for the inclusion of religion Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   57 A new strategic approach for World Bank support—quick wins, sustained progress in their children’s education, and are under the governments’ boosting the availability of quality textbooks and reading ma- purview to a greater extent than traditional Koranic schools. terials, and increasing time for learning to read.122 For rural Competition that results from expanding and strengthen- schools in particular, teacher support should be adapted to ing these options could prompt Koranic schools to reform effectively manage classroom realities—large, multi-age and their approaches to maintain their reach. In Bangladesh, multi-grade groups of children who will learn most effective- many traditional Koranic schools (called Quomi madrasas) ly when taught at the right level. While the first White Paper have started introducing formal school curriculum elements target focuses on learning poverty and literacy—because alongside a religious education, to keep pace with other ensuring that all children are in school and able to read is an schools with similar offerings - Alia madrasas (overseen easily understood goal for society to rally around—this does by the government and similar to the Franco-Arab or Ara- not imply ignoring other foundational skills. Improving foun- bo-Islamic schools in the Sahel), and other public and pri- dational numeracy is also essential for further schooling and vate schools. A survey showed that significant proportions future human capital, and it is a goal that countries should of Quomi madrasas, including those in rural areas, teach track and work toward. Fortunately, many of the interven- secular subjects such as English, science, Bengali (a widely tions proven to improve literacy will also improving teaching spoken local language), and math.120 and learning of numeracy. Beyond that, systems that ensure that all children can read typically succeed in helping them Koranic schools could also be provided with financial in- learn other subjects as well, and empirically, across coun- centives for the admission of girls, to promote girls’ edu- tries and schools, proficiency rates in reading are highly cor- cation in traditional communities. This approach was very related with proficiency in math and other subjects.123 successful in a World Bank supported stipend program in- troduced in 1993, targeted at girls at the secondary level in Sahel countries could achieve significant learning gains Bangladesh’s Alia madrasas. Under the program, girls did by using local languages for instruction, especially in the not have to pay school fees, and schools that admitted girls first few years of schooling. Well-designed language of in- were given financial incentives. This opened up the tradi- struction (LoI) policies has been shown to result in a host of tionally male-only institutions to girls, and led to a many-fold benefits. Teaching children in a language they understand, increase in the proportion of girls in Alia madrasas, from 7.7 supported by good age-appropriate reading materials in percent in 1990 to 52 percent in 2008 (effectively gender that language, helps them learn better and leaves them parity). Madrasas were responsible for 35 percent of the well-disposed to learn other languages. It greatly enhances increase in girls’ education participation over that period the over learning experience and induces children to remain and contributed significantly to efforts at achieving gender in school longer. Appropriate LoI policies also promote eq- parity in education nationally. The spillover effect on Quomi uity, improve internal efficiency, and avoid excluding popula- madrasas is also noteworthy. In order to compete with Alia tions based on language or culture. 124 madrasas, many traditional Quomi madrasas have started admitting girls in their midst.121 While the Sahel countries are linguistically diverse, it is technically possible to reach the vast majority of their pop- Improve effectiveness of early-grade teaching of litera- ulations through relatively few L1s, and there are recent cy and other foundational skills successful experiences to learn from. Building consensus Governments should focus on early-grade teaching of lit- and ensuring implementation follow-through may be chal- eracy and other foundational skills as an urgent priority, lenging, but attention to those issues combined with selec- recognizing it as critical for human and economic devel- tivity can make this approach technically feasible. As seen in opment. Literacy is critical for further progress in learning Table 6, a relatively small number of languages, ranging from and skills acquisition, but too many children in the Sahel 1 language out of 7 (in Mauritania) to 20 out of 130 (in Chad) leave primary school without having gained foundational are the first languages for 80 percent of the countries’ re- literacy (or numeracy) skills. To effectively change this real- spective populations. This is consistent with global patterns, ity requires a comprehensive set of interventions, including where another 220 languages could serve around 270 million the use of local languages for instruction where feasible, students. To succeed, language-of-instruction policies need guidance to teachers in the form of scripted lessons, prac- tical and regular coaching for teachers through technology, 122 These interventions are all key elements of the 2020 World Bank Literacy Policy Package. 123 World Bank (2019d). 120 Adams, Herzog, and Marshall (2016). 124 The discussion on LoI draws heavily from the policy approach paper Loud and 121 Adams, Herzog, and Marshall (2016). Clear: Effective Language of Instruction Policies for Learning, World Bank (2021b). 58   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition A new strategic approach for World Bank support—quick wins, sustained progress to be based on a thorough appreciation of the local context. sequencing are optimized, students can master multiple lan- The community needs to be engaged comprehensively to guages even in basic education. Fourth, L1 instruction should understand the languages spoken at home and in the com- continue even after an L2 becomes the principal language munity, the dynamics between different linguistic groups, of instruction. Lastly, countries should continuously plan, de- and local implementation capacity in terms of manpower velop, adapt, and improve the implementation approach for and community resources. Forcibly displaced populations language-of-instruction policies based on their unique goals may require separate assessments to understand whether and contexts. they would benefit more from L1 or L2 instruction, depending on their areas of origin and the often-protracted nature of LoI policies should be matched to the specific contextual displacement in the region, as discussed below. Ineffective challenges within the Sahel, in particular, internally dis- stakeholder engagement and inconsistent implementation placed people and refugees. The large numbers of refugees can easily derail such initiatives, as discussed above in the and IDPs in the Sahel was earlier discussed. Studies have Mali experience, and could result in unintended consequenc- noted that such displacement may be long term, with refu- es such as the exclusion of linguistic minorities. It is critically gees spending 10 to 25 years outside their country or region important for policymakers to understand the context and of origin on average. 127 The experiences of countries such a consult widely with stakeholders during policy development Chad, where donor-financed schools in refugee-camps have and implementation. Stakeholder consultations would help been integrated into the national system, and Niger, where policymakers understand the diversity of the language con- national education services are accessible to refugees, offer text and allow those most affected by policy to articulate their important lessons learned that can be expanded throughout goals and concerns. This would ensure that LoI policies are the region. However, implementing LoI policies for displaced implemented in a way that strengthens rather than strains children is challenging and involves considering a range of the social fabric. Still, despite the conflictual context that pre- factors. The L1 for displaced children may be different from vails in DRC, the introduction of mother-tongue instruction those of host communities, and it may be difficult to hire was successfully piloted across the country in 2020. Among teachers that can teach in that language. Displaced children the 200 languages spoken in DRC, four—namely Kikongo, may have been out of school for several years, so they may Lingala, Chiluba and Swahili— were selected as national lan- need remediation or condensed catch-up programs before guages and used to develop textbooks for the first four years they can rejoin school. Any political sensitivities, or antipathy of primary school. These textbooks are now being distribut- from host communities towards the presence of, and the ed across the country.125 need to serve, displaced children should also be addressed to facilitate integration. Lastly, there is a need to coordinate Where it is possible to build agreement, local languages efforts of donors or international actors to ensure a consis- (L1) should be used for instruction in the first few years tent approach. of schooling, with transition to a second language (L2) in later years.126 There are a few key principles in using L1 Additional challenges to implementation exist in FCV set- for instruction. First, children should be taught in their L1 tings that require a unique approach to LoI. Fragility and through at least the first six years of schooling. It is critical conflict often result in long-term population displacement. that instruction be in the language most students speak and A large influx of displaced populations into host commu- understand best. Second, L1 should be used for instruction nities requires strategic planning to ensure that children in academic subjects beyond reading/writing, which allows participate in instruction in a language they know. Addi- students to master reading and writing in a broad range of tional challenges can include gaps in schooling that result disciplines and in all school subjects. Third, L2 (French or in lower-than-expected L1 literacy levels, lack of alignment Arabic in the Sahel countries) should be introduced early between LoI in the host country and the displaced children’s as a foreign language with a focus on oral language skills. country of origin, socioemotional challenges requiring addi- Instruction should advance to L2 literacy and content area tional support, and a lack of teachers fluent in children’s L1. instruction only after students have achieved a level of profi- It is important to consider political sensitivities as well, in- ciency in L1 literacy and L2 oral language. If instruction and cluding community perspectives on newly arrived children, the perceived responsibility of host communities to offer and 125 World Bank (2021f). For effective implementation, over 45,000 teachers and customize education services to the displaced population, school directors were trained in reading and writing in the 4 national languages, as of February 2021. 126 This paragraph quotes heavily from the principles for improving LoI and learn- ing outcomes from the policy approach paper, Loud and Clear: Effective Language 127 Crawford et al. (2015); Devictor and Do (2016); Milner and Loescher (2011), cited of Instruction Policies for Learning - World Bank (2021b). in World Bank (2021b). Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   59 A new strategic approach for World Bank support—quick wins, sustained progress and the roles of international actors assisting with the pro- The design of teachers’ guides, distribution of TLM, teach- vision of schooling. er coaching, and overall management of schools in the Sahel should also be adapted to the multi-grade and multi- Regardless of language, effective literacy instruction re- age realities of many primary classrooms. As described quires quality, contextualized teaching and learning ma- earlier, many of the children who access education do so late, terials (TLM). Given the low average content and pedagogi- repeat grades, or experience disruptions in their education cal knowledge of teachers across the Sahel, teacher guides due to household livelihoods (such as pastoralists), climate should detail both what (content) and how (pedagogy) teach- or conflict shocks, and other factors. Consequently, many ers should teach in a lesson-by-lesson, easy-to-understand classrooms in primary schools across the Sahel, particular- “scripted lesson” format. Regional cooperation can be lever- ly in rural areas, are filled with children of varying ages and aged to jointly develop and procure materials at lower unit varying skill levels. Tailoring instruction to each student is a costs, as discussed earlier. Technology also offers many new nearly impossible task, but the Teaching at the Right Level resources to support the development of high-quality, low- (TARL) approach pioneered by the Indian NGO Pratham has cost, and contextualized supplementary reading materials, shown strong results in rigorous evaluations in India and is including multilingual digital libraries like the African Story- now being implemented and assessed across SSA.132 TARL book and the Global Digital Library. However, at a basic level, involves assessment of each student’s actual learning level, Sahel countries must address the budgeting, procurement, time devoted to students learning in groups according to and distribution challenges that contribute to perennial de- their levels (rather than by age or grade), and regular moni- lays, misallocations, and shortages of TLM.128 toring. 133 The approach is flexible, and can be implemented by teachers or volunteers, during or after the school day, and for Regular coaching that helps teachers stay on course and short or long periods of time. In addition to TARL, the Escuela effectively manage their classrooms can significantly im- Nueva model, first developed in rural Colombian schools for prove the quality of teaching in the near term. To provide children of agricultural households and now implemented in it, Sahel countries will need to leverage technology. Global several other countries, offers relevant innovations for the evidence demonstrates that traditional forms of in-service Sahel. In Escuela Nueva, students work primarily in groups, training, where teachers passively receive information far supporting each other and working at their own pace, and removed from their classroom contexts, is ineffective.129 In students and their families take very strong roles in manag- the Sahel (and much of Western and Central Africa) most ing their schools. This approach allows for great flexibility teachers do not receive even this form of ineffective in-ser- within the classroom and over time, for example enabling vice training, and local resources, like school directors and students to successfully return to school after disruptions.134 inspectors, are usually not equipped to provide effective pedagogical guidance. However, an increasing body of ev- idence is showing that in-service training can be effective 2.2.2. Increasing girls’ participation rates in in contexts with low-capacity teachers when it is regularly secondary education provided, tailored to teachers’ needs, and focused on prac- tice—in other words, coaching. Coaching programs can Eliminating gender gaps in education is not only the right work through multiple channels (including school directors, thing to do; it also makes economic and strategic sense pedagogical advisors, or other education staff) but requires for countries, allowing them to fulfill their development human resource capable of providing quality support di- potential. Leaving girls behind in education has a range of rectly to teachers. In the Sahel countries, where capacity consequences for the girls themselves, their families, and so- is constrained at all levels and many teachers and schools cieties. Girls exiting school early are more susceptible to ear- are in hard-to-reach areas, technology can help by enabling ly marriage and childbirth, which is in turn increases the risk high-quality coaches to support large numbers of teachers of children being undernourished or dying before age five. virtually. Successful experiences in Brazil and South Africa Lack of education also makes girls more susceptible to vio- show that such approaches can be cost-effective, even if lence and lower empowerment in the household.135 Societies they are not as impactful as in-person coaching.130,131 could face greater poverty, and slower development given 132 Banerjee and others (2016). 128 Fredriksen, Bar, and Trucano (2015). 133 See https://www.teachingattherightlevel.org/ for more detail. 129 Popova and others (2018). 134 See for example Psacharopoulos, Rojas, and Velez (1992) and Parandekar and 130 Bruns, Costa, and Cunha (2018). others (2017). 131 Cilliers and others (2021). 135 Wodon et al. (2018). 60   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition A new strategic approach for World Bank support—quick wins, sustained progress Table 10: Benefits from ending child marriage in secondary schooling and beyond, as girls (and boys) prog- ress through the levels of education with better skills and Domain Estimated potential benefits more confidence in their abilities. But there is also much that Earnings and Expected earnings in adulthood more can be done in the short term to lower other barriers to the standards of living than doubled secondary schooling of girls, both by increasing demand and Increase in labor force participation or working full time by up to one tenth improving supply. Gain in perceptions of standards of living of up to one tenth On the demand side, one of the most effective set of Child marriage and Virtual elimination of child marriage approaches to closing education gender gaps is to re- early childbearing Reduction in early childbearing by up to three fourths duce the costs of schooling and incentivize participation Fertility and Reduction in total fertility by about one through eliminating fees and providing scholarships or population growth third cash transfers targeted at girls from disadvantaged fam- Increase in contraceptive use by a third ilies. Evidence from across developing countries points to from base Reduction in population growth by 0.6 these types of cost-reducing approaches as being among percentage point the most effective for increasing girls’ participation in Health, nutrition, and Increase in women’s knowledge of HIV/ school.136 Many examples of these initiatives exist in the Sahel well-being AIDS by one tenth and across SSA. For example, in the DRC, early indications Increase in women’s decision-making ability for health by more than a fourth suggest that girls are disproportionately benefiting from Increase in women’s psychological the country’s 2019 free schooling policy, with gender parity well-being Reduction in under-five mortality rate by improving at every level of basic education.137 In Niger, the up a fifth SWEDD project has financed a program enabling disadvan- Reduction in under-five stunting rate by almost half taged girls to temporarily move closer to secondary schools when there are none in their home areas. Girls completing Agency and decision- Women more likely to be able to make making decisions in the household primary were provided scholarships to fund their school fees Women possibly more likely to better and lodging with a host family for three years, as well as given assess the quality of basic services Increase in likelihood of birth tutoring. Results from a rigorous evaluation indicate that the registration by one third program was very impactful, increasing the probability that Social capital and Women more likely to report altruistic girls were still in school after three years by 21 percentage institutions behaviors points (35 percent more likely relative to the control group) Women more likely to report ability to rely on friends when in need and reduced the probability that they were married by 7 per- Women possibly more likely to be more centage points (49 percent less likely relative to the control able to assess institutions/leaders group).138 Source: Wodon et al, 2018 The community-based approach of the SWEDD proj- ect combines multiple initiatives to empower girls and lower lifetime earnings, higher fertility, and worse health and young women, and to promote behavior change among education outcomes for their children associated with lower all stakeholders. The high focus of the SWEDD project on girls’ educational attainment. behavior changes is well suited to address key drivers of girls’ exclusion from secondary education. As mentioned Achieving universal secondary education for girls in the in paragraph 25, most girls that drop out right before or Sahel would have a range of potential benefits. Table 10 within secondary school did so for pregnancy and/or mar- summarizes results from a World Bank study prepared riage reasons (Figure A8 and A9 in annex). The initiatives ahead of the second African girls’ summit on ending child fostered by the SWEDD project are likely to improve enroll- marriage organized by the African Union in Ghana in 2018. ment in both lower and upper secondary since there is no While these estimations are based on data from countries systematic difference in the reasons for girls’ dropout within across SSA and North Africa, similar benefits likely apply to lower secondary and within upper secondary (Figure A9 in the Sahel countries. annex). Indeed, beside the scholarship program described above, two other key education-related elements of SWEDD Increasing girls’ secondary participation at scale requires a strategic combination of demand and supply-side inter- 136 Morgan and others (2012); Bashir and others (2018); Evans and Yuan (2019). 137 World Bank (2021e). ventions. Reducing learning poverty will have ripple effects 138 Giacobino and others (2019). Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   61 A new strategic approach for World Bank support—quick wins, sustained progress are the strong social and behavior change communications being revised and strengthened, while in Uganda, the gov- (SBCC), and safe spaces both within schools, and for out-of- ernment chose to shift away from PPPs in 2018 to building school girls and young women. Through SBCC, the project its own schools due to equity and accountability concerns.140 has addressed social norms, attitudes, and practices at the regional and local levels with the support of governments, Although evidence shows that girl-targeted interventions NGOs, and religious leaders. Under the patronage of influ- may make the most sense when addressing constraints ential religious leaders such as the Grand Imam of Al-Azhar, that are especially binding on girls, the most effective in- Muslim leaders have received guidance to use theological vestments to improve girls’ educational outcomes may arguments in favor of girls’ secondary education, delayed be a mix of targeted and non-targeted investments. Gen- childbearing to adulthood, and birth spacing and against der-neutral interventions hold great promise for girls’ learn- gender-based violence (GBV). Key messages on these is- ing as well as for boys’ learning. For instance, Duflo et al. sues are woven into Friday and Sunday prayers, diffused in (2020), in their evaluation of targeted instruction interven- mosques, churches and during community gatherings and tions in Ghana, find larger impacts for girls despite the fact dialogue. National campaigns in local languages have been that girls are not specifically targeted by the intervention. In- launched to complement regional messaging, with a focus deed, a review of the evidence suggests that interventions fo- on sustained community dialogue. In addition, SWEDD sup- cused exclusively on girl’s education will often not be the most ports the strengthening of legal frameworks across coun- effective or efficient way to improve educational outcomes tries and the capacities of regional platforms to promote for girls.141 This is particularly true in weak, fragile states that girls’ and women’s rights, and discourage harmful practices. are struggling to address multiple developmental crises si- School and community-based safe spaces have been built to multaneously. Considering the limited resources that edu- allow girls to interact with each other in the absence of men, cation systems in most low- and middle-income countries and have also been used to educate girls. possess, the most practical approach to help girls learn may be to make schools better for all children and youth. Coun- To maximize impacts on girls’ secondary participation, tries can do that with non-gender-targeted interventions further scale-up of successful SWEDD programs can be that are highly cost-effective in building foundational skills, complemented by supply-side interventions that expand which are still very needed in lower secondary school in the secondary school supply. To expand supply and reduce the Sahel; these include interventions like structured pedagogy costs of participation, building schools closer to communi- and programs to teach children and youth at the right lev- ties has shown to be an effective approach in the Sahel. For el.142 In some settings, this non-targeted approach may also example, in Burkina Faso, the Burkinabe Response to Im- be more politically palatable to voters than programs that prove Girls’ Chances to Succeed (BRIGHT) initiative success- restrict their benefits to girls. fully increased girls’ and boys’ primary school participation and completion through construction of primary schools in In addition to expanding supply and adapting proven communities and a set of complementary interventions from cost-effective pedagogical tools, countries can experi- 2005 through 2012. Subsequently, a similar approach proved ment with newer technologies that could rapidly improve effective in the Education Access and Quality Improvement student learning and thereby increase the value of staying Project, which increased access to lower secondary and in school for girls as well as boys. As described earlier, low upper secondary education, for girls and boys alike, through learning while in school is widespread at the primary level the construction of schools that are closer to disadvantaged across the Sahel. While many of the weakest students drop communities.139 Construction of public schools can be com- out, many others advance to secondary school still lacking plemented by public-private partnerships (PPPs) whereby key skills and struggle with more advanced material. At the public funds are used to finance private provision to expand same time, the brightest students may be unable to fulfill access more quickly. While this approach has contributed to their full potential due to a lack of teacher skills and appro- enrollment growth in Mali, Uganda, and other SSA countries, priate materials, particularly in math and science. One ap- it requires strong governance arrangements to be effective. proach, where conditions allow it, could be to use adaptive In Mali, public oversight of private secondary providers is learning software. This software can serve children at all learning levels, by using artificial intelligence to assess each student’s skill level and present tailored, interactive lessons 139 The boarding school model, while widespread in parts of Anglophone Africa, has been found to be too costly to use at any scale and should therefore be reserved for specific circumstances where other options are not feasible. In addition, ensur- 140 World Bank (2020l); World Bank (2021d). ing student safety is a serious concern. See Bashir and others (2018) for a detailed 141 Evans and Yuan (2019). discussion. 142 Global Education Evidence Advisory Panel (2020). 62   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition A new strategic approach for World Bank support—quick wins, sustained progress PHOTO BY: © DORTE VERNER / WORLD BANK Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   63 A new strategic approach for World Bank support—quick wins, sustained progress to teach them from there. Rigorous evaluations of such is not acceptable and enforcing codes of conduct that detail software are starting to show significant impacts on stu- norms and standards of behavior for all school staff, and po- dent learning and cost-effective implementation, but basic tentially also students and their parents. There should also technology infrastructure and school staff capacity need to be clear, safe, and accessible mechanisms in place for re- be in place, which is not the case for fragile and high-pov- porting incidents anonymously, assisting victims with coun- erty contexts.143 One major barrier is the high cost of con- seling and support, and referring cases to the appropriate nectivity in the Sahel region. Design also matters: initiatives authorities. that use low-quality software or simply put traditional con- tent onto tablets or computers have shown little impact.144 For the Sahel, effectively deploying high-quality adaptive 2.2.3. Increasing young adult literacy rates, learning software therefore presents a serious implemen- with a focus on young women tation challenge. So, while these approaches are promis- ing, governments should be cautious in adopting them and Alongside efforts to improve basic education for children, should prioritize lower-tech interventions for which there is increasing the literacy rate of the labor force, especially a stronger evidence base. For these reasons, it may make women and youth, is necessary for economic and human sense to try such software first at the secondary level, where development. The extremely low levels of adult literacy the infrastructure will often be better, and to evaluate their among women in the Sahel countries affects their empow- impact carefully before scaling up. In such cases, software erment and economic engagement, as well as their capacity designed for this context could substantially increase girls’ to invest successfully in their children, perpetuating the in- (and boys’) learning and encourage them to stay in school. tergenerational cycle of poverty described earlier. Thomas And there have been efforts to tailor foundational literacy et al (2020) similarly note that investing in female literacy and numeracy software to challenging contexts. In 2019, for makes economic sense on its own and could also have pos- example, the Global Learning X Prize initiative awarded its itive externalities for development more generally. For the $10 million grand prize to two innovative open-source soft- many youth and young adults who never had the opportu- ware programs after they were proven to accelerate learn- nity to participate in formal education, illiteracy will burden ing in field trials in Tanzanian villages.145 them throughout their working lives, limiting the effective- ness of technical training and other investments in the labor To increase girls’ chances to complete their studies in a force and dragging down overall economic productivity. safe and healthy environment, hence improving their chances in the labor market, it is crucial to end school-re- There are several reasons why Sahel countries need to lated gender-based violence (SRGBV). SRGBV is any act invest smartly in young adults’ literacy and skills. First, or threat of sexual, physical, or psychological violence oc- more than half of young adults (15–34 years old) and about curring in and around schools, perpetrated as a result of 59 percent of young women in the Sahel region are illiterate, gender norms and stereotypes, and enforced by unequal meaning that the basic skills deficit among young adults is power dynamics.146 SRGBV must be incorporated into na- too large to be ignored. Consequently, the stock of unskilled tional action plans that recognize the need for prevention, workers is very large, and these young unskilled workers still impact mitigation, and accountability. Governments should have long working lives ahead of them. Second, investments demonstrate leadership at the national and local levels with in the foundational and technical skills of young adults can laws and policies on SRGBV; strengthening connections bring important economic and social benefits. These skills between education and child protection systems; and ap- can improve livelihoods, enable mobility out of low-produc- plying system-wide reforms to ensure that state education tivity jobs, improve productivity in existing jobs, and enhance institutions comprehensively address SRGBV. Also, whole- social cohesion, since jobs are about more than just incomes. school approaches are needed to make schools safer (from A substantial literature has demonstrated that basic literacy all types of violence) and better environments for children to and numeracy skills allow people to operate better in the la- learn in. Whole-school approaches aim to create safe and bor market and, ultimately, to access better jobs.147 Moreover, welcoming spaces, promoting strong messages that SRGBV improvements in adult literacy and skills can both directly and indirectly increase the next generation’s human capital. Parental literacy, particularly of mothers, and the resulting 143 Muralidharan, Singh, and Ganimian (2019); Wang and others (2020). 144 Habyarimana and Sabarwal (2018). improvement in adults’ incomes can enhance children’s skills 145 https://www.xprize.org/articles/global-learning-xprize-two-grand-prize-win- ners 146 Women, U. N. (2016). 147 Arias and others (2019). 64   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition A new strategic approach for World Bank support—quick wins, sustained progress development by improving child health, early stimulation, Learner motivation is key. Many adult education partic- and the learning environment at home. While the first reason ipants tend to dropout early in the course. Efforts to boost applies to illiterate adults of all ages, the latter two reasons continued participation for instance through rewards, social point toward the reason to focus on young adults. On top of engagement and goal-setting could be important to sustain that, younger adults may feel a greater incentive to learn and participation. For instance, the ABC program in Niger of- may thus learn faster. fered food vouchers contingent on regular attendance. Of- fering childcare support could free up women to participate Adult education programs have not been studied as ex- in programs, in the same way that provision of subsidized tensively as school education, but there is some strong childcare has been shown to substantially increase the em- evidence on how to design successful programs, including ployment rates of mothers (for example in Kenya).152 from the Sahel. Importantly, adults of all ages are capable of learning, but younger adults are likely to respond better. Successful programs satisfy the needs of learners and the Scientific148 evidence suggests that there are no severe bio- community. Similar to the concept of teaching at the right logical factors limiting adult literacy acquisition. While adults level for school children, adult literacy programs have to be face some reduced brain plasticity149 compared to children, pitched appropriately to enable learners to move up the liter- they benefit from strengths in other cognitive areas such as acy continuum. Programs have to be culturally appropriate executive function and memory.150 These tend to peak be- and contextualized to the local environment in order to have tween the ages of 18 and 30, which would therefore be the lasting outcomes. Teaching and learning materials should optimal window for adult literacy interventions. be relevant and meaningful in the local context, and logistics such as timings and locations should also be decided based Teachers need to be specifically trained in techniques that on context. Involving the community in course planning, and support language acquisition among adult learners. In the reinforcement of learning after the fact could make interven- absence of such training, teachers may default to ineffec- tions more sustainable. tive teaching strategies such as didacticism. Adult learners would benefit from actively engaging with lesson material, Rapid and large increases in adult literacy at a national and from quality, contextualized learning materials. Teachers scale are possible in a young, conflict-affected country from the local community with appropriate qualifications grappling with widespread poverty. The experience of and adequate compensation are also key success factors.151 South Korea shows how.153 From 1945 to 1959, South Korea reduced its adult illiteracy rate from 78 to 22 percent, de- Mobile phone technology can support adult learning at low spite just emerging from Japanese occupation and WWII, cost. Aker et al (2012) assessed the impact of an intervention followed by the Korean War from 1950 to 1953. This breath- in Niger that taught adults how to use mobile phones (Proj- taking transformation came about through strong political ect Alphabétisation de Base par Cellulaire, or ABC), on top of commitment to rebuild society based on human capital and a regular adult education program focusing on literacy and recognition of the need to equip both children and adults numeracy. ABC, together with the adult education program, with basic skills. Under a five-year plan to eradicate illiteracy, helped students acquire reading and math skills to a greater South Korea built on a long legacy of religious and communi- extent, compared to just the adult education program. The ty organizations providing informal instruction such as “night authors suggested that the outcomes may be attributed to schools” for farmers, and deployed tens of thousands of liter- greater student motivation and effort in class, and more acy teachers (existing schoolteachers and others with basic opportunities for practice outside. The study also under- skills) to teach courses to adolescents and adults, separated lined the importance of teacher quality, with better educat- by gender, scheduled to accommodate the agricultural cal- ed teachers being able to use the mobile phones to greater endar, and promoted by local leaders. There is no reason effect. The use of mobile phones by participants could have why, in principle, the Sahel countries could not replicate the spillover effects such as improved access to digital services South Korean experience and spark an economic transfor- such as electronic payments, and information. mation. 148 Lessons summarized here are drawn from Bendini, Levin, and Oral-Savonitto (2019). 149 Brain plasticity refers to the ability of the brain to change in response to the world around it. 150 Executive function refers to a set of cognitive skills that includes sustained at- tention, planning and meta-cognition. 152 Clark, Laslzlo, Kabiru, and Muthuri (2017). 151 Thomas et al (2020). 153 Byun and others (2012). Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   65 A new strategic approach for World Bank support—quick wins, sustained progress 2.2.4. M&E: A game-changer to support all the high-quality pre-school education even in low-capacity set- others tings. As discussed above, nutrition and care will require high-level political leadership and concerted action of other In addition, there is a meta-game-changer that will make ministries beyond education, because it depends on sup- it possible for these others to succeed: better monitor- port—including financial assistance and advice—to house- ing and evaluation. This is necessary both to implement the holds with infants and young children well before they enter game-changers and to learn what is working. For example, formal schooling. Finding cost-effective ways to expand pre- structured support to teachers relies on frequent feedback on school education is also important; without it, disadvantaged student learning from well-designed learning assessments. children find themselves well behind by the time they arrive And while we know the basics of how to teach early literacy, at primary school. Finally, getting children into school is not good evaluation can help in adapting those approaches to enough; it is crucial to adopt measures to keep all of them, es- make them as effective as possible in the Sahel context. Similar- pecially girls, in school through basic education and beyond. ly, keeping girls in secondary school requires systems for track- This all requires building on the game-changer policies for ing attendance and learning systematically, given that frequent ECD and girls’ education described in the previous section, by absence and low marks are early warning signals for dropout. institutionalizing the reforms and steadily increasing quality. Indeed, a review of all the game-changers above will show that each one depends on good data and the ability to interpret it. Context-appropriate, affordable early childhood educa- tion models can be developed to strengthen young chil- Here too, starting out right over the next year would make dren’s foundational skills and school readiness. To start a difference. As governments work to bounce back from with, Governments could use the internationally bench- COVID-19 in the immediate future, the patterns they set can marked 10 percent of the education budget towards pre-pri- either help or hinder the medium- and long-term responses. mary education as a medium- to long-term target. The focus If they track the participation and learning of each child to should be on expanding access to pre-primary education to guide learning recovery effectively, that will create a jump- poor and vulnerable children who are unlikely to have stim- ing-off point for a deeper integration of M&E into the other ulating home environments. Expanding pre-primary educa- game-changers and the long-term system strengthening. tion may not be easy in practice, given the scale of the Sahel countries, rapid population growth, and the widely dispersed and often nomadic populations. However, the recent gains 2.3. System strengthening: What in primary school enrollment rates suggest that progress needs to change for sustainable is possible. To begin, governments could explore service de- improvements livery models such as co-locating pre-schools with primary schools, and leveraging private, community and religious in- Implementing the game-changers would be a major step stitutions, where possible. forward but building high-quality education systems will re- quire concerted and sustained effort that must begin now. Effective, low-cost service delivery models for pre-prima- The serious work of system strengthening should begin now, ry education focus on local hiring, provision of structured because building up the pillars of an education system takes and practical training, and supply of appropriate teach- time. Action is needed on each of the four proximate drivers ing and learning materials. In India, a randomized con- of a strong education system: prepared learners, effective trolled trial tested the impact of hiring dedicated pre-school teaching, adequate resource materials, and safe and inclusive teachers in early childhood centers under the Integrated schools. The approaches needed to support each driver will Childhood Development Scheme (ICDS). The ICDS has 1.35 need to be adapted for more fragile and conflict-affected con- million anganwadi centers (AWCs) offering free education to texts, to ensure these areas do not fall further behind. 36 million 3- to 6-year-olds, many of them poor. AWCs cut costs by having just two staff – an anganwadi worker (AWW) providing health and education services, and an anganwa- 2.3.1. Strengthening pre-primary education to di helper (AWH) in charge of cooking, feeding children, and give children a head start cleaning. The intervention added a facilitator focusing on teaching in the state of Tamil Nadu, to boost staff capacity at Pre-primary education can put learners on high-devel- the AWCs. Facilitators were female, over 18, hired locally, and opment trajectories and reforms can help keep them at least secondary-educated. They received targeted train- in school. It is possible to provide early nutrition, care, and ing and a lesson package with daily activities, and paid half 66   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition A new strategic approach for World Bank support—quick wins, sustained progress the salary of an AWW, much lower than civil service teach- has been used to good effect in Burkina Faso, and in a wide ers. The intervention doubled the time spent on education variety of other contexts such as in Guinea (for preschool and and nearly tripled time spent on nutrition, resulting in better primary school children in rural and urban areas), Zambia education (math and language scores), and health (height (for orphans and vulnerable children, Ethiopia (for Somali and weight) outcomes for treatment children relative to their refugees in camps), and Nigeria (in Koranic schools).157 control peers. With an estimated benefit-to-cost ratio of 12x, the intervention offers hope that early childhood outcomes Improvements in pre-school and primary education can be improved in a cost-effective manner at scale.154 In should ideally go together, to start children off on a high Kenya, the Tayari preschool program also aimed to develop learning trajectory that makes staying in school worth- a cost-effective and scalable model of early childhood de- while. As pre-primary education is being developed in the velopment and education to enhance the cognitive, health Sahel, children will continue to arrive at primary school with and social-emotional readiness of children joining primary low levels of cognitive and language development, creating school. A randomized controlled trial tested the impact on challenges in the classroom from the earliest grades. To pre-primary school children of different packages: support bridge these gaps, early primary education should focus on to teachers to improve instruction, instructional materials, developing basic literacy and numeracy skills for all children, and a health intervention. All three treatments had a posi- to enable them to keep learning and benefiting from staying tive impact on learning outcomes, with the latter two being in school. This would necessitate teaching literacy and nu- especially effective, and the cost per learner was relatively meracy skills in the first years of primary school as if children low (ranging from US$8.47 to US$19.40 over two years).155 have no prior exposure to these concepts, instead of assum- Beyond improving children’s outcomes, programs like these ing a high level of preparedness at the outset. benefit women as well, especially younger women. They pro- vide training and skills to current or future preschool teach- ers (who are mostly women), making them more employ- 2.3.2. Keeping children in school and offering able. Sending children to preschool also frees up the time of second chances for youth to build skills mothers and other caregivers in the home, so that they can enter the labor force. For school-age children and youth, intensive remediation during transitions across levels could help students catch The quality of pre-primary education matters a lot and up with their grade level and reduce the risk of repetition should be prioritized. To be cost-effective, interventions or dropping out. To address the issue of youth lacking foun- should provide substantially more stimulation and care dational skills when leaving basic education, it may be neces- than the status quo. Achieving this goal can be challenging, sary to provide remediation before continuing education and which is why—although work to expand access should start training. Remediation in school would be ideal. After school, now—pre-primary is categorized here in the longer-term the more successful programs provide bridging courses in system-strengthening section rather than as a quick win. real-life contexts, which allows learners to build foundation- Still, there is much that governments can do now to begin al skills in the workplace. Accelerated, flexible pathways as giving children a better start in learning. They can promote opposed to sequential courses over multiple semesters are quality improvements by offering operating subsidies to pri- also associated with better retention and completion rates.158 vate, community or religious pre-school education providers that fulfill baseline quality (curriculum, proportion of trained Retention targets youth in school and aims to reduce the staff) and affordability requirements. Governments should instance of dropping out. Retention programs should be- also undertake efforts to professionalize the pre-school sec- gin before secondary school, as this is the level at which tor by introducing pre-primary training programs in teacher students commonly dropout. Retention policies should be training institutes. Structured pedagogy approaches such carefully designed to avoid unintended consequences. For as Interactive Audio Instruction (IAI)156 are cost-effective example, compulsory education in Uganda and Kenya led to means to boost the quality of instruction in pre-schools and higher initial enrollment, but also reduced the quality of ed- could double up as in-service training for existing staff. IAI ucation, which is a push factor for students. Four out of five Sahelian countries (Niger is the exception) currently have 154 Ganimian, Muralidharan, and Walters (2020). compulsory education up to lower secondary. Financial aid 155 Ngware et al. (2018). 156 IAI lessons involve instruction provided by an “audio teacher” to “audio stu- dents”, with pauses for responses and actions by in-classroom teachers and stu- 157 Murphy Paud, Stephen Anzalone, Andrea Bosch, and Jeanne Moulton (2002); dents. Following the completion of the audio lesson, the classroom teacher will con- Ho, J. and Thukral, H. (2009). duct a lesson building on the instruction provided by the “audio teacher”. 158 World Development Report 2018. Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   67 A new strategic approach for World Bank support—quick wins, sustained progress and scholarships can improve enrollment and retention, as cess formal schooling or who dropped out at an early age for discussed above in the context of improving girls’ education various reasons. The program offers an accelerated version outcomes. Remediation and mentoring could be a cost-ef- of the first three years of basic education, and culminates in fective means of encouraging youth to stay in or return to a placement test for the 3rd or 4th grade. Teachers in this school. For instance, the Girls’ Education Project in Eritrea program have received specific training, and the program reports improved grade promotion because of tutoring. covers French, mathematics, life skills and aesthetic subjects (singing, drawing, poetry), delivered over 34 hours and 6 Remediation targets out of school youth, with second days per week for 34 weeks of classes per year. chance education programs bring school-age children back to school, and equip youth with basic literacy and nu- Youth who are unlikely to return to formal education re- meracy skills necessary for employment. Programs with quire practical skills training for integration with the labor flexible entry and exit and close links to the formal education market. Filmer et al. (2014) suggest two broad areas for gov- system have demonstrated success. Uganda’s Basic Educa- ernment intervention in terms of skills training: (1) providing tion for Urban Poverty Areas (BEUPA) Program is an exam- information and facilitating access to training, and (2) inter- ple. The program targeted youth aged 9–18 with an acceler- vening to ensure the availability of better-quality training op- ated, three-year basic education curriculum compared with tions.161 the regular five-year basic education cycle.159 A 2002 review of the program found that of the more than 3,000 students Interventions that provide targeted financial incentives to served through 54 centers in Kampala, 55 percent were increase participation in training have been shown to help. girls, more than a quarter transferred to formal schools, and In northern Uganda, a program providing large cash grants only about 10 percent dropped out.160 The following success to self-created groups increased the proportion of youth factors were identified: integration with a formal curriculum, enrolled in vocational training from 15 to 74 percent, and coverage of both academic and life skills, career guidance, recipients also engaged in more intensive training. Youths and strong involvement of the community in the education engaged in training without being obliged to, suggesting centers. Such second-chance programs are crucial in the that programs that help to finance access to training could Sahel, where exclusion rates are very high. be effective. Voucher programs that give students greater choice in training opportunities can be effective. In Kenya, The Sahel region offers several examples of programs the Technical and Vocational Vouchers Program offered for reintegration of out-of-school children and youth. young people vouchers worth approximately US$460 to en- Senegal has three such models. First, the Basic Community courage them to enroll.162 Half of the voucher recipients were School (ECB) model which lasts 4 years with a bridge to the randomly chosen to receive restricted vouchers to public in- lower secondary schools or to professional training at TVET stitutions, while the other half could choose either public or schools. Second, the School/community support is a popu- private schools. 69 percent of restricted voucher recipients lar education initiative that cares for thousands of young attended vocational training, compared with 79 percent of boys and girls excluded from school or with no schooling. unrestricted voucher recipients. Winners of unrestricted The initiative also provides remediation for children from vouchers were also more likely to complete training. Vouch- disadvantaged neighborhoods who are enrolled in public or er programs can also stimulate training supply as was the private schools through tutoring in the evenings or at times case in the Jua Kali in Kenya, a large program that provided when these children are not in school. Finally, the Socio-pro- vouchers to workers in the informal sector. fessional integration model offers training for out-of-school children and youth or the disadvantaged, that enables them Providing information on employment and training oppor- to find a lasting place in the working world. Another exam- tunities may be a cost-effective way of boosting participa- ple is the unified model implemented in Burkina, Niger and tion in training. Providing timely and accurate information Mali. This strategy, Stratégie de Scolarisation Accélérée avec could dispel misconceptions regarding employment and la Passerelle (SSA/P), has been initiated by organizations training opportunities, and may be a cost-effective means of such as the Stromme Foundation and UNICEF. SSA/P is an boosting participation in training. Research in Kenya found alternative school that offers a second chance to children that youth chose differently once provided with wage infor- between the ages of 9 and 14 who have not been able to ac- mation, including salary differentials between traditionally 159 Thompson (2001); Lamichhane, Prasad, and Wagle (2008). 161 The following paragraphs on training draw from Filmer et al. (2014). 160 Ilon and Kyeyune (2002). 162 Hicks et al. (2011). 68   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition A new strategic approach for World Bank support—quick wins, sustained progress PHOTO BY: © OLLIVIER GIRARD / WORLD BANK male (e.g., electrician) and female (e.g., seamstress) dom- 2.3.3. Focusing on teachers to strengthen the inated professions. Armed with such information, more backbone of the education system women, as well as young, educated girls, chose to enter male-dominated professions. To strengthen teaching throughout basic education, Sahel countries need better attraction and selection policies for Governments need to use public financing selectively to new teachers, and practical training and support for ex- support training programs. The training landscape tends isting teachers.163 As noted above, it is important to support to be varied, with a multitude of options ranging from formal teachers while focusing on improving the quality of teaching TVET targeted at the primary or secondary educated, for- as the goal. Part of this will come from making teaching a mal private training, and informal training such as appren- more attractive profession for potential teachers, especial- ticeships. Governments should support programs that offer ly for high performers, and from selecting them based on good value for money. Quality can be measured in terms of merit. But given that many of those who will be teachers a outcomes such as translation to employment, program com- decade from now are already in the teaching force, helping pletion rates, or feedback from employers, or even trainees them teach more effectively is paramount. This means shift- themselves. Formal TVET tends to be more expensive and ing to more practical, classroom-based in-service training, apprenticeships the cheapest, whereas formal private train- with more coaching and mentoring—while at the same time ing costs vary. Given that a large share of the economy re- making pre-service education more practical, so that new mains informal in the Sahel and Sub-Saharan Africa more teachers don’t start out with so little classroom experience. generally, informal apprenticeships are a key mechanism for out-of-school youth to learn skills and find employment, but In addition, motivation can be strengthened through im- may be difficult to scale up. provements in teachers’ career and salary frameworks. One practical example is ensuring that teachers can get their 163 This section draws heavily on Breeding, Béteille, and Evans (2019). Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   69 A new strategic approach for World Bank support—quick wins, sustained progress paychecks more easily, to avoid demotivating teachers and as longer programs.165 Using programs like this can enable keep them in the schools. In Chad, a mobile-based payment governments to draw on pools of potential teachers to ex- mechanism was launched in 2018 for the community teach- pand supply of schooling more quickly, at a time when demo- ers (CTs) who make up 60 percent of the primary school graphic pressure on schooling is intense. teaching force. As of October 2021, the electronic payments made through mobile companies reached about 11,000 Teacher selection should be based on merit. Merit-based CTs for salary disbursements, and 8,500 CTs in scholarship selection practices have been shown to produce better stu- payments for teacher training.164 A 2020 monitoring report dent results even when the quality of teacher assessments is revealed that for 75 percent of CTs, the new mechanism of not ideal, given difficulties in evaluating adult competencies payment improved teachers’ punctuality and engagement; at scale.166 Where possible, authorities should also assess for 80 percent of them, the mobile payments increased candidates’ effectiveness as learning facilitators, rather than teachers’ presence in class. Female teachers view this slight- just their content knowledge. This could be done as part of ly more positively than the average, as 82 percent of them interview processes. Probationary periods are crucial since believe mobile payments improved teachers’ punctuality and it is difficult to predict if a teacher would be effective simply engagement. Appointing principals who can provide peda- based on interviews. Probation should include strong teach- gogical guidance may also strengthen teachers’ motivation er evaluation, to ensure that only teachers that make the through the resulting support and mentoring. Strengthening mark enter the system. One promising approach is to frame their ability to play this role is an important part of the school the probationary period as a three- to five-year appren- leadership agenda discussed below. ticeship, during which teachers earn performance-based credits towards being hired permanently.167 Tenure should As education systems are rapidly growing, the Sahel be based on performance and measurable characteristics needs a sufficient pipeline of teachers ready to be ef- such as attendance, instead of being based solely on senior- fective in primary and secondary classrooms. Effective ity or qualifications, which may not equate to performance. pre-service training and recruitment criteria can help. Poor performers should be supported to improve or exited Pre-service training curricula should be updated to prepare otherwise, and the same should apply even after teachers teachers to facilitate cognitive and socioemotional learning, are placed on tenure. personalize instruction, and provide support for teaching to the level of the student. The training should also include In addition to merit, teacher recruitment in the Sahel remediation to address any deficiencies in content knowl- should also consider gender and geography to equitably edge. Training should also avoid being overly theoretical and serve all students. Specific efforts to recruit more women include a substantial internship or practical component in for primary and secondary teaching positions, as well as schools. This will enable new teachers to enter classrooms school leadership positions, would help make schools more with confidence by teaching them to apply pedagogical skills, welcoming particularly for adolescent girls across all five manage classrooms, and respond to personalized feedback. countries. Given the scarcity of basic services outside of ur- Efforts are underway in Mali for instance, to exclusively re- ban areas, as well as insecurity that is plaguing many parts cruit at the Baccalaureate level (completion of high school), of the Sahel, local teacher recruitment is likely the only viable increase the duration of initial teacher training from 2 to 3 option for ensuring that children in all parts of each country years, and align teacher training curricula with those of pri- have access to education. Global experiences suggest that mary and secondary education. Given the limited capacity of while monetary or career incentives have helped in some teacher training institutes, regular short-form programs or settings, the levels of spending necessary to close access “bootcamps” delivered in partnership with non-governmen- and quality gaps affecting rural and disadvantaged areas tal organizations or foreign universities can help ensure that are not sustainable for public budgets168; moreover, they may all new teachers have at least some basic, quality training be especially unlikely to be effective in deploying teachers before entering the classroom. Studies based on test score to conflict-affected and insecure areas. Instead, recruiting data for Togo and Guinea find that while teachers need from local communities may be the most effective way to some pre-service training, short four-to-six-month courses ensure that teachers work where they are needed, even if it provided to teachers with good general education, together means adjusting standards and providing more support. In with support in the first year on the job, could be as effective 165 Majgaard and Mingat (2012). 166 Estrada (2019). 167 Muralidharan (2015-2016). 164 World Bank (2016b). 168 Evans and Acosta (2021). 70   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition A new strategic approach for World Bank support—quick wins, sustained progress parallel, initiatives such as in Niger to provide career incen- coordinators in the Sahel, to provide more regular feed- tives for teacher deployment in conflict-affected and at-risk back and coaching to teachers. The high rates of mobile areas should be closely monitored for impact and potential phone penetration in the region should make this feasible: relevance for other countries in the Sahel. by 2018, three of the countries (Burkina Faso, Mali, and Mauritania) already had penetration of well over 80%, and For teachers already in the system, the priority should be rates in Chad and Niger were also substantial.172 Interac- to provide support through on-going, structured, focused, tive radio instruction could be another potentially effective and practical training that leads to better teacher-student pedagogical intervention; although less rigorously tested, interactions, as opposed to one-off training events which it works on the same principles as other programs that do are unlikely to have a sustained impact. A recent study of 33 work effectively. rigorously evaluated programs in low- and middle-income countries concluded that programs that positively impact- Finally, teacher career and salary frameworks need to ed student learning outcomes were subject-specific, linked improve, to raise motivation and make teaching a more to professional incentives (e.g., promotion), at least partially attractive career. Sahel countries must address con- in-person, and practice-oriented.169 Although such programs tract-tenure disparities as a source of ongoing dissatisfac- are likely to be more expensive, and may therefore reach only tion among teachers. This is no easy task, given stark budget- a smaller number of teachers per year, they are more likely to ary pressures, but clear commitment from government and deliver value for money.170 As community hiring of teachers is strong stakeholder engagement can help identify a fair and prevalent in the Sahel, particularly in remote areas, govern- sustainable path over time. For all teachers, lightening the ments could explore the remote delivery of teacher training, burdens of obtaining their salaries, through improved pay- where it is not possible for teachers to travel to teacher train- ment routing and reforms to improve timeliness, as well as ing institutes mostly located in urban centers. leveraging mobile money technology wherever possible, can eliminate an important source of teacher absenteeism and Where teacher knowledge is low, structured pedagogy increase teachers’ motivation. In addition, initiatives that im- with appropriate teaching and learning materials, train- prove basic school infrastructure (as discussed earlier) can ing, and monitoring can improve learning outcomes. have the added benefit of improving teachers’ daily working Structured pedagogy is predicated on a curriculum that conditions.173 Finally, promotion to school principal and local is well-designed and pitched at the right level. Such an ap- system leadership positions should emphasize pedagogical proach could help teachers improve their pedagogical ap- leadership and managerial skills, as part of a clear and fair proaches, and spend more time catering to students’ indi- career structure that incentivizes strong performance, rath- vidual learning and socioemotional needs. A randomized er than purely seniority. controlled trial (RCT) across 169 villages in The Gambia using structured pedagogy showed dramatically improved learn- ing outcomes, as did another RCT in Guinea Bissau across 2.3.4. Building infrastructure that enables and diverse settings.171 supports learning Technology, where available, can be leveraged to con- If game-changers are successfully implemented, Sahel nect teachers with each other and with skilled coaches countries will soon face spikes in demand for secondary for sustained engagement and behavior change. As dis- education as more children successfully complete prima- cussed earlier, there are demonstrated successes of using ry. Improving secondary access cost-effectively—wheth- technology to improve the effectiveness of teachers. In er through school construction or through measures to Brazil, increases in student learning were achieved by pro- reduce travel times to existing schools—will become a viding coaching to pedagogical coordinators over Skype, more urgent priority. Although the unit costs of secondary which helped them better support teachers. In South Af- education tend to be higher than primary, building schools rica, instructional coaching to teachers via phone calls, near communities is generally more cost-effective than ap- instant messages, and WhatsApp groups was just as effec- proaches that bring students to schools (such as boarding tive as face-to-face instructional coaching after one year. schools).174 While boarding schools may be the best approach Similar approaches can be leveraged by local pedagogical in certain situations, such as enabling students from insecure 169 Popova et al. (2019). 172 World Bank (2020m). 170 World Bank (2020h). 173 Evans and Yuan (2018). 171 Fazzio, et al. (2020). 174 Bashir and others (2018). Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   71 A new strategic approach for World Bank support—quick wins, sustained progress areas to live and go to school safely, research from across textbook upgrading during curriculum revisions. Libraries Sub-Saharan Africa suggests that they are in general not could be used to provide additional reference materials. cost-effective and raise a set of challenges for exploitation Where local printing capacity is low, governments could con- and abuse. In addition to building schools, improving trans- sider international competitive bidding to cut costs. Where portation options and reducing travel time can have signifi- possible, governments should also leverage the private cant impacts, as has been shown with the provision of bicy- sector for textbook distribution, especially to remote areas, cles to adolescent girls in India.175 As in the case of primary and make payments contingent on successful delivery. schools, these alternative approaches can be more cost-ef- fective than constructing new schools in some settings. The use of e-textbooks accessible on computers or mobile phones could help expand access to materials at low cost. Governments should also continue programs to upgrade While the lack of infrastructure will make it unfeasible to use school sanitary facilities, especially given recent public digital materials everywhere, governments could promote health crises such as COVID-19. Building such facilities could their use in urban areas with better electricity and internet make school a safe place for teachers and students. In Burki- connectivity, and focus on physical learning materials as the na Faso, a program to construct schools with modern ameni- primary mode of delivering content in rural areas.177 ties increased enrollment by a large margin, with the biggest impacts for girls. Even beyond building entire schools, build- Sahel countries should empower local authorities and ing latrines—particularly gender-specific ones—significantly schools to make decisions based on their unique contexts. increased enrollment of adolescent girls in India. This can solve two issues. First, giving local school lead- ers and parents the power to influence teachers and other Beyond early-grade literacy discussed in the game-chang- school representatives could help ensure that teachers re- ers, expanding access to quality teaching and learning spond more immediately to student needs. This would not be materials in every grade is a necessary step for the Sahel possible if supervision was left to ministry officials from afar. countries. However, increasing inputs alone, without com- Second, decision-making power and the discretion to deploy plementary changes are likely to be ineffective. This is based resources should rest with schools and communities with on examples from a variety of settings involving the provision better information about local needs, and therefore greater of additional textbooks, the addition of teachers to enable ability to meet those needs.178 For example, providing local more manageable class sizes, school construction, and pro- options for adjusting school calendars can allow communi- vision of libraries, to name a few. Structural issues such as ties to adapt to local priorities (such as agricultural growing the curriculum, assessment systems and pedagogical ap- seasons and local holidays) and thereby increase attendance proaches also need to be addressed. Good materials, includ- when the schools are open. ing appropriate-level textbooks and instruction at the right level, provided alongside pedagogical improvements, can Involving the community in school management could make a big difference in learning outcomes. This is especially strengthen oversight, and the nexus between school and true in the Sahel, where even minimal levels of resources are community. As explored in section 1.6.3, the community often lacking.176 has often played an important role in education in the Sahel countries. GEEAP (2020) notes that the evidence on involv- Sahel countries can explore several strategies to boost ing communities in managing schools is mixed, although the availability of teaching and learning materials. First successful interventions have been cost-effective. The com- is to streamline curricula as recommended earlier in this munity could in theory improve school accountability, advo- paper. This could involve a combination of reducing the cate for better teaching and learning practices, and support number of subjects, and reducing content within individu- children’s learning even outside the classroom. However, al subjects, to reduce the number and length of textbooks, interventions that involve providing community feedback to thereby reducing costs for governments and families. Sahel schools or collecting teacher and student data have had little countries could also consider adopting single textbook pol- impact. Successful programs seem to be those that boost icies, whereby education ministries develop standardized the authority and legitimacy of school management commit- textbooks based on national curricula. This would allow for tees. An RCT in Indonesia tested combinations of four inter- economies of scale, ensure standardization, and simplify ventions in rural schools - providing funding and training to 175 GEEAP (2020). 177 Fredriksen et al. (2015). 176 GEEAP (2020). 178 World Bank (2018). 72   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition A new strategic approach for World Bank support—quick wins, sustained progress committees, community election of school committee mem- served major gains in learning.182 Computer-assisted adap- bers as opposed to appointment by school principals, and tive learning technology, as discussed under the girls’ sec- involving the village council in school management. While ondary education game-changer, can be deployed wherever funding and training did not have significant impacts on enabling conditions are in place and further support efforts learning outcomes, the combination of an election and the to teach to the level of the student. linkage to the village council did, possibly due to the school committee being seen by principals, teachers, and parents, Well-designed national assessment systems share some as having greater legitimacy by virtue of being elected, and common features. First, national assessments should be de- the involvement of influential members of the local commu- signed to allow the disaggregation of data along key dimen- nity in overseeing school operations.179 sions such as gender, geography, disability status, and socio- economic status. This would allow governments to identify and support vulnerable populations. Second, assessment 2.3.5. Curriculum and assessment reforms at methodologies should be consistent across years, to facil- the heart of teaching and learning itate comparisons across time, and test the effectiveness of policy and process interventions. Third, students should Sahel countries need to reform school curricula to make be assessed at the right time when interventions would be them focused and age-appropriate. Shifting curriculum effective. For instance, assessments of basic skills such as and assessment away from the academic elite to reflect literacy and numeracy should be done early in children’s the distribution of skills in the wider student population is schooling, to address any learning deficiencies before they a major cross cutting element of education system reform, fall further behind. Household testing should complement which is often difficult to evaluate. Sahel governments need school-based testing, to cover out of school children, and al- to update curricula to focus on foundational skills such as lit- low a deeper appreciation of household factors that affect eracy and numeracy in the initial years, before introducing children’s progress. Fourth, governments should be cautious higher order knowledge and skills. School curricula for older with linking incentives such as salaries or school budgets children should better suit labor market needs. Curriculum directly to test scores, at least where the governance and reform efforts are already underway in the Sahel countries. monitoring framework is not well-developed. Doing so could Governments should monitor and accelerate such efforts drive undesirable behaviors such as teaching to the test, or where possible, and introduce regular curriculum review cy- trigger a backlash from stakeholders. (Note that this does not cles to ensure relevance. preclude linking pay and career progression of educators to longer-term performance, including performance in improv- Governments need to strengthen assessment systems at ing learning; this can be an important pillar of a merit-based all levels. Assessment systems in the Sahel countries tend system.) Fifth, policies should be informed by assessment to be nascent. The focus should initially be on classroom results. Results should be distributed in a timely fashion to assessments, followed by sample-based, low-cost national schools or local administrations to facilitate follow-up action. assessments, and finally regional or global assessments. Lastly, regional and international assessments tend to yield Teachers should be equipped to conduct regular assess- high returns. Some Sahel countries—Burkina Faso, Chad, ments in class to check students’ learning progress, to iden- and Niger—already participate in regional assessments tify and support students that lag. Programs in Liberia and such as PASEC. The remaining countries could also consider Malawi that did this were effective.180 With better developed participating in these assessments to benchmark their ed- assessment systems, schools with sufficient teachers may ucation systems against the region, and use the results to be able to group children by ability and facilitate teaching drive policymaking.183 to the level of the student. In school systems with very low learning levels, ability grouping has had positive impacts on both lower- and higher-performing students. In Kenya, 2.3.6. Service delivery in FCV context grouping students into classes by ability led to improved out- comes across the board, with the highest impacts among Achieving the targets will require strong, resilient, and learners with more motivated teachers.181 In India, schools inclusive education systems that promote learning, life reorganized classes by group for just an hour a day and ob- skills, and social cohesion in the region due to the FCV 179 Pradhan et al. (2011). 180 Bolyard (2003); Piper and Korda (2010); cited in World Bank (2018). 182 Banerjee and others (2016); cited in World Bank (2018). 181 Cummins (2016); Duflo, Dupas, and Kremer (2011); cited in World Bank (2018). 183 World Bank (2018). Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   73 A new strategic approach for World Bank support—quick wins, sustained progress PHOTO BY: © OLLIVIER GIRARD / WORLD BANK 74   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition A new strategic approach for World Bank support—quick wins, sustained progress context. It will especially require tailored analysis and ad- prevent and respond to crises, as well as ensure the social justments to proposed approaches depending on the type cohesion and resilience of the population. and level of FCV in more conflict-affected and at-risk areas in the Sahel. This entails, among others, taking into account Despite this difficult environment, Sahelian countries can factors such as: security considerations, which require de- build on resilience factors to slow the deterioration of the signs that do not increase risks for teachers and students; situation by preparing and adopting a strategy for the miti- deteriorating social fabric, with frequent marginalization of gation of conflict and violence risks. For instance, countries some socio-economic groups and their consequent lower could adopt a spatially differentiated approach that distin- capacity for community involvement; and higher costs and guishes between three zones, with implications for how they more complex implementation. The delivery of education provide education services. First, the “unstable zones” are services is more complicated in fragile settings, where insti- the areas of departure of displaced people and/or areas of vi- tutions are more limited in their ability to function and where olence. In these areas, the priority is essentially security and conflict and violence can impede project implementation safety, the return of the State’s presence and the resilience and equity. Fragile settings also tend to have fewer resourc- of populations and territories. Second, the “pressure zones” es, which makes investments in human capital even harder. are areas hosting displaced persons, where priority is given In these contexts, exclusion and inequities could aggravate to humanitarian emergencies, in particular support to IDPs fragility but education also plays a singular role to prevent and local development issues. Lastly, the “prevention zones” violence and to also help mitigate the risks associated with are areas facing risks of conflict extension. In these areas, such adversities and help children and youth to succeed de- emphasis should be placed on preventive actions to consol- spite severe challenges. Countries should work to provide idate social cohesion and the resilience of public institutions education services for all ages and for all socio-economic and populations through more inclusive local governance groups through more inclusive and equitable systems. In and service delivery. This categorization of zones should be addition, those suffering from discrimination, exclusion, and regularly updated, so that governments can respond to the violence, including gender-based violence, need additional evolution of the situation on the ground by adjusting planning support and empowerment. and implementation. It is therefore critical that, whenever possible, interven- Governments can adjust interventions to the level of fra- tions to address the education challenges in the Sahel gility in each zone, adapting programs and policies in ar- region be paired with interventions that address FCV bar- eas like teacher recruitment and the deployment and use riers and increase resilience. Sahel countries’ engagement of appropriate EdTech. The sections above have already should follow a multi-pronged approach aimed at address- identified a number of interventions that may be best suited ing both short- and long-term drivers of instability in the to overcoming constraints in the more FCV-affected zones, region. In the medium to longer term, governments should such as local recruitment of teachers. Governments can seek to increase access to economic opportunities, partic- also consider using EdTech programs to facilitate learning ularly through agriculture and basic education, while ensur- in FCV settings. Children living with the effects of armed ing greater resilience and inclusion for the most vulnerable conflict currently have little or no access to education. These populations. They can do this by helping to diversify the ru- children live in environments where classrooms are inac- ral economy, broaden access to markets, promote wom- cessible or dangerous. And where schooling is accessible, it en’s empowerment and youth inclusion, further expand and is often of low quality, because teachers are overburdened, strengthen critical infrastructure, and provide basic school and classes are made up of children with different and con- education and professional training. flicting needs. These challenges have resulted in a growing education gap. To help close this education gap for con- Challenges in service delivery and local governance, as flict-affected children, Sahelian countries can consider us- well as weak accountability, limit the state’s ability to main- ing EdTech programs tailored to these contexts. One exam- tain a positive presence across the territory, thus aggra- ple is the Can’t Wait to Learn Initiative, which uses gaming vating grievances against institutions. At the local level, the technology to deliver education to conflict-affected children distribution and quality of basic services are uneven, rein- in both formal and out-of-school settings in Sudan, Ugan- forcing feelings of exclusion and marginalization and thereby da, Lebanon, Jordan, Chad, and Bangladesh. The program increasing risks of conflict. These weaknesses are particu- partners with ministries of education, and it uses a delivery larly significant in areas that are affected by violence, where system designed to operate well in low-infrastructure envi- limited capacity of local institutions curtails their ability to ronments. Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   75 A new strategic approach for World Bank support—quick wins, sustained progress 2.4. Beyond the system: financing Table 11: World Bank financing of education in and technology for education the Sahel transformation IDA/IBRD Investments in Educ ation, USD (2010) per capita per decade Expanding access while implementing the game-chang- ers and systemic improvements outlined above will re- 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s quire Sahel governments—especially Chad, Mali, Mau- Burkina Faso 0.74 0.85 0.74 0.37 ritania, and Niger—to spend far more on education than Chad 0.53 1.13 0.70 0.46 they do today. Figure 32 below shows how far Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger are below the lower-middle-income Mali 0.42 1.68 1.07 0.34 country averages of both total government spending relative Mauritania 1.28 4.54 3.36 0.63 to GDP and education’s share of spending (represented by Niger 0.80 0.93 0.35 0.22 the vertical and horizontal lines, respectively). Moreover, the Sahel 5 0.67 1.35 0.86 0.35 dashed curve in Figure 32 outlines the combinations of total government spending and the share going to education that Benin 0.93 0.63 0.44 0.59 are equivalent to public spending on education of 6 percent Cote d'Ivoire 0.31 2.48 1.01 0.18 of GDP, the global target for low-income countries that have Ghana 0.38 3.13 1.22 0.65 not yet achieved universal primary education.184 In the Sahel, Guinea 0.48 0.52 1.97 0.22 only Burkina Faso is approaching this benchmark. Senegal 0.81 1.09 1.15 1.21 At the same time, international development assistance, Other W. Africa 0.51 1.98 1.16 0.55 while playing an important role in sector financing, is limit- Ethiopia 0.30 0.17 0.27 0.76 ed and unlikely to increase significantly. Globally, the share Kenya 1.00 2.54 0.43 0.14 of education in allocatable aid has remained steady around Rwanda 0.25 0.49 0.53 1.01 10 percent over the last decade, and for SSA is projected to stay at or below about 0.3 percent of the region’s annual Tanzania 0.39 0.35 2.24 0.40 GDP.185 For the Sahel, as discussed earlier, international de- Uganda 0.38 1.23 1.17 0.60 velopment assistance accounts for about 10 percent of total East Africa 5 0.46 0.84 0.85 0.55 spending on education, less than a third of what households Sources: World Bank Group Financial Data and World Development Indicators spend. For the World Bank specifically, education invest- ments in the Sahel have been falling on a per-capita basis since the 1990s and have been lower than in other countries in West and East Africa (Table 11). their ability to borrow in order to fund public spending.186 Therefore, concerted efforts around domestic resource mo- Sustainably increasing education spending will therefore bilization will be critical in the medium term to realize the im- require a combination of raising education’s share of to- provements needed in education. tal public spending, improving the efficiency of education spending, and most fundamentally improving domestic Moreover, Sahel countries could reconsider their sub-sec- revenue mobilization and creating more fiscal space. toral allocations within education. In particular, Burkina Without a coordinated effort across these three fronts, none Faso, Chad, Mauritania, and Niger should reassess the large of the four countries (other than Burkina Faso) can be ex- allocations to tertiary education, which mainly benefits the pected to achieve the 6 percent spending target (Figure 32). highest socioeconomic classes, in contrast to the limited For example, given current level of public spending, Mauri- public financing that goes to secondary education. Under- tania would have to devote more than a third of its overall financing of secondary education is also likely to become a budget to education to reach that target. Given competing more significant constraint as more children complete pri- priorities, including the security sector, such allocations are mary and aspire to continue their education. improbable at best. In addition, all five of the Sahel countries are at moderate or high risk of debt distress, constraining To illustrate the magnitude of the financial challenge, in order to absorb the enrollment increases driven by im- 184 UNESCO (2016). 185 Lewin (2019); Al-Samarrai and others (2019). 186 https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/debt-toolkit/dsa 76   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition A new strategic approach for World Bank support—quick wins, sustained progress Figure 32: Education as a share of total government budget and government spending as a share of GDP in low-income and lower-middle-income countries (%), 2017-19 25 TZA Combinations equal to public education spending of 6% of GDP TGO BFA KEN 20 BEN BDI Education as share of budget (%) STP MDG MOZ KGZ NPL COM HTI 15 TCD NER MLI MWI COD GIN TJK UGA PAK RWA AFG BGD GNB GMB 10 MRT KHM LBR CAF Low & lower middle income average 5 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Government spending as share of GDP (%) Source: World Bank calculations based on World Development Indicators, UIS and IMF. Note: BFA=Burkina Faso; MLI=Mali; MRT=Mauritania; NER=Niger; TCD=Chad. Figure 33: Additional cost of primary education delivery for 2021-2025 and 2026-2030 (million $US) Business as usual Additional cost 2021-2025 2026-2030 3,000 4,500 3,000 169 1,500 1,304 1,538 109 1,313 120 129 1,500 1,703 977 1,199 77 1,562 918 1,475 570 1,336 688 857 367 457 0 0 Burkina Faso Chad Mali Mauritania Niger Burkina Faso Chad Mali Mauritania Niger Source: Authors’ simulation model. proved quality and student flow in primary education will expenditures on primary education relative to GDP (Mali, Ni- likely bring additional cost. Results from simulations show ger), while Chad will have to almost triple its public spending that based on the current development trends in countries’ on primary education (Figure 34). The methodological note education systems—a “business as usual” scenario—prima- used for the simulation model is presented in Annex B. ry education enrollment numbers will increase significantly. The increase in enrollment figures between 2021 and 2030 Finally, as more technological infrastructure comes on- is equivalent to 4.2 million more children studying, or an in- line across the Sahel—in particular solar energy and crease of 36 percent on average. Absorbing the enrollment digital connectivity – more rapid transformation will be increases driven by improved quality and student flow in possible at every level of the education system. Through- primary education will likely bring additional cost: from US$ out this paper, examples of promising uses of technology 70.4 million in Mauritania to US$ 175.9 million in Burkina Faso have been cited with the caveat of limited applicability, given on average per year in 2020-2030 (Figure 33). Meeting this the scarcity of electricity and connectivity across the Sahel. challenge would require some countries to double public However, there is reason for hope, as ambitious initiatives Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   77 A new strategic approach for World Bank support—quick wins, sustained progress Figure 34: Cost of primary education, as % of projected GDP 3.0% 2.8% 2.8% 2.6% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 1.8% 1.8% 1.6% 1.5% 1.3% 1.1% 1.2% 0.9% 0.0% 2020 2025 2030 2020 2025 2030 2020 2025 2030 2020 2025 2030 2020 2025 2030 Burkina Faso Chad Mali Mauritania Niger Source: Simulation model to bring all Sub-Saharan Africans online gain momentum, est school connectivity level among developing countries), like the African Union’s Digital Transformation Strategy, the learning-adjusted years of schooling could increase by 10 GIGA Initiative, and the forthcoming Global Declaration on percent and boost GDP per capita by up to 20 percent.188 Connectivity for Education.187 Reliable and affordable con- This of course assumes that energy and connectivity are nectivity could enable schools and systems across the Sahel effectively leveraged for learning, including to enable the re- to break through multiple constraints, and obtain more ef- forms throughout this paper. They need to be combined with fective teacher support, utilize software that targets learn- other learning-focused improvements—for example, teach- ing at the right level, access more and better learning ma- er support, pedagogy and curriculum, and governance—for terials, and leverage insights from accurate management countries to reap the full benefits of those investments. But data systems. Estimates suggest that if school connectivity if this happens, it could ignite a truly transformative cycle of in Niger improved to the level of Rwanda (with the high- change. 187 https://gigaconnect.org/updates/; https://au.int/en/documents/20200518/ digital-transformation-strategy-africa-2020-2030 https://globaleducationcoali- 188 https://connectinglearners.economist.com/data/EIU_Ericsson_Connecting. tion.unesco.org/home/flagships/connectivity pdf 78   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition 3. CONCLUSION PHOTO BY: © VINCENT TREMEAU / WORLD BANK Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   79 Conclusion The education challenges facing the Sahel region are But beyond a clear-headed diagnosis and political will, many and daunting. Understanding these constraints and countries also need a good game plan. This White Paper how they hold back progress is a crucial first step, which is has proposed a two-part strategy for progress. First, focus why this White Paper opened with an in-depth diagnosis. action on a small number of game-changer policies and Poverty, fragility, conflict, and climate change create an envi- programs, aiming to achieve explicit targets in key areas— ronment in which even a well-managed and well-resourced cutting learning poverty, increasing secondary education school system would struggle to deliver good outcomes. On for girls, and increasing adult literacy. Prioritizing these ar- top of that, there are many challenges in the school system. eas could lead to measurable advances by 2025 and 2030. At the school level, there are large gaps in all the major ele- Second, begin immediately to carry out longer-term system ments of effective education—children and youth in school strengthening in key areas, such as building up pre-primary and prepared to learn, teachers who are prepared and education, strengthening teacher preparation and gover- supported, learning resources well adapted to the context, nance, and reforming curriculum and assessment. Finally, to and school infrastructure that provides a safe environment make all this possible, increase education financing from its conducive to learning. In addition, low levels of capacity and very low current levels and make better use of technology. poor accountability mean that management is weak, both in schools and at the system level. And the very low levels of ed- These ideas are meant to catalyze action and inform ucation financing and inefficiency at translating money into countries’ own strategies. They are informed by the re- outcomes mean that systems lack the resources that could gion’s own efforts, the World Bank’s extensive experience in make reforms easier. the region and around the world, and by the experience of many partners. But making progress will depend on coun- But opportunity abounds too, and the region has many tries taking these ideas and using them to develop the strat- successes and strengths to build on. It has managed to egies that will work best for them, which will be possible only enroll many more children into school in recent decades, if there is political will to make learning of all children and increasing enrollment rates even in the face of very rapid youth a true priority. population growth. The region can draw on the strengths of its communities, which can compensate for weaknesses in Strengthening education and human capital is the region’s government capacity. Another potential strength is the vitali- only real choice—and that’s a good thing. The region’s pop- ty of the non-state education sector, which could be a power- ulation continues to surge, with the number of children and ful force for progress if policy can orient it toward achieving youth growing faster than in any other region. The countries societal goals. In addition, regional cooperation can help in of the Sahel therefore face a choice that is not really a choice: building the future. All of this opens an opportunity for build- Do they want their communities and workplaces in a decade ing education into not only a fount of prosperity and peace or two to be filled with a huge cohort of young people who for the future, but a place of rich experiences and growth for either haven’t gotten an education or who have discovered today’s children and youth. their credentials do not translate into actual skills, produc- tivity, or employment? Especially given the higher aspirations Seizing this opportunity requires political will. The political of today’s youth, which are fueled by an awareness of what will cannot be just that of enlightened leaders, although lead- is happening elsewhere in the world, this is a recipe for dis- ership is necessary. Instead, society as a whole must commit illusionment and strife. Or will the Sahel countries commit to building its future through education. This means a com- themselves—at a societal level, not just within the ministries mitment to prioritizing schooling and learning for all children of education—to nurturing the human mind, which is the and youth, and making decisions that affect education with most powerful driver of prosperity, poverty reduction, and that goal in mind. human flourishing? 80   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition PHOTO BY: © WORLD BANK Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   81 Bibliography Bibliography Acemoglu, D., Philippe, A., & Fabrizio, Z. (2006). Distance to Falola, The Palgrave Handbook of African Education and Frontier, Selection, and Economic Growth. Journal of the Indigenous Knowledge (pp. Chapter 28, pages 597 - 616). European Economic Association, 37-74. London: Palgrave Macmillan. Adams, N., Herzog, L., & Marshall, K. (2016). Modernizing Is- Bandiera, O. N. (2019). 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Niger: Smart Villages for rural growth too%20short,WHO)%20child%20growth%20stan- and digital inclusion (P167543) combined PID/ISDS. dards%20median.&text=If%20current%20trends%20 continue%2C%20projections,will%20be%20stunt- World Bank. (2020n). Suivi Itératif du paiement des Maîtres ed%20i Communautaires du Projet d’Appui à la Réforme de l’Éd- ucation au Tchad phase II (PARSET2) : Round 2. World Health Organization. (2017). The Healthy Growth Proj- ect. Consulté le May 26, 2021, sur World Health Organi- World Bank. (2021). Individuals Using the Internet (% of pop- zation: https://apps.who.int/nutrition/healthygrowthproj/ ulation) from the World Telecommunication/ICT Indica- en/index1.html#:~:text=Childhood%20Stunting%3A%20 tors Database by the International Telecommunication Context%2C%20Causes%20and,of%20factors%20 88   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition Bibliography associated%20with%20stunting.&text=In%20addi- subsequent pregnancies and births of the young moth- tion%20to%20poor%20physical,learning%20capaci- ers. ty%20and%20school%20perform Zacharia, S. (2020). Education Radio Knowledge Pack. Yussif, A.-S., Lassey, A., Ganyaglo, G. Y.-k., Kantelhardt, E. J., Récupéré sur World Bank EdTech: https://pubdocs. & Kielstein, H. (2017). The long-term effects of adoles- worldbank.org/en/351561596545287034/EduRa- cent pregnancies in a community in Northern Ghana on dio-KnowledgePack-WorldBank.pdf Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   89 PHOTO BY: © VINCENT TREMEAU / WORLD BANK 4. ANNEXES 90   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition Annex A. Annex A. Figures Figure A 1: GER by level of education, gender, area, and wealth quintile Primary Lower secondary Upper secondary Tertiary 55% 80% 10% 104% 48% 10% 98% 71% 77% 73% 75% 66% 30% 59% 42% 43% 44% 26% 5% 22% 29% 4% 24% 3% 11% 9% 0.3% 1% Poorest Rural Female Sahel av. Male Richest Urban Poorest Rural Female Sahel av. Male Richest Urban Poorest Rural Female Sahel av. Male Richest Urban Poorest Rural Female Sahel av. Male Richest Urban Source: Authors’ estimates based on EHCVM 2018 for Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, and Niger; and EPCV 2014 for Mauritania. Figure A 2: Trends in Gross Enrollment Rate (GER) by level of education and country 100% 2005 2018 80% 76% 73% 68% 56% 48% 43% 33% 34% 28% 58% 48% 94% 72% 74% 23% 23% 19% 8% 10% 11% 4% 4% 5% 5% 2% 4% 3% 2% 36% 26% 19% 19% 13% 3% 3% 6% Chad 10% Mauritania 19% 2% Mali 14% 3% 4% 2% 3% 1% Burkina Faso 7% 4% 1% Burkina Faso Chad Mali Mauritania Niger Burkina Faso Chad Mali Mauritania Niger Burkina Faso Chad Mali Mauritania Niger Niger Burkina Faso Chad Mali Mauritania Niger Pre-primary Primary Lower secondary Upper secondary Tertiary Source: EdStats and authors’ estimates based on EHCVM 2018 for Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, and Niger; and EPCV 2019 for Mauritania. Note: The base year for the Pre-primary GER is 2010. The base year for Tertiary GER for Mali is 2008. Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   91 Annex A. Figure A 3: Trends in actual number enrolled in basic education (in millions) 12.00 2005 2018 10.8 10.00 8.00 5.9 6.00 4.00 2.73 2.65 2.83 2.02 2.00 1.35 1.31 1.61 1.17 1.09 0.93 0.76 0.45 0.52 0.25 0.19 0.51 0.44 0.07 0.26 0.17 - Burkina Faso Chad Mali Mauritania Niger Burkina Faso Chad Mali Mauritania Niger Primary Lower secondary Source: EdStats and authors’ estimates based on EHCVM 2018 for Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, and Niger; and EPCV 2019 for Mauritania. Figure A 4: Average education of the labor force, for younger and older cohorts by country No education Some Primary Some lower secondary Some upper secondary TVET Higher education 100 3 3 3 90 6 4 2 6 14 5 9 22 80 21 29 21 70 19 19 60 21 18 16 50 23 88 87 88 40 80 81 30 54 48 44 47 20 40 10 0 15-24 55-64 15-24 55-64 15-24 55-64 15-24 55-64 15-24 55-64 Age Age Age Age Age Chad Burkina Faso Mali Mauritania Niger Source: Authors’ estimates based on EHCVM 2018 for Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, and Niger; and EPCV 2019 for Mauritania. Figure A 5: Youth activity (ages 15 to 24) in Sahelian countries, both sexes Study Only Work Only Study and Work Neither Study Nor work Sahel average 27 25 3 44 Niger 19 29 2 50 Mauritania 35 14 1 50 Mali 25 24 1 50 Chad 24 31 8 37 Burkina Faso 31 29 5 35 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Source: Authors’ estimates based on EHCVM 2018 for Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, and Niger and EPCV 2014 for Mauritania 92   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition Annex A. Figure A 6: Educational attainment of inactive youth (15-24) No education Incomplete Primary Complete Primary Incomplete Lower Secondary Complete Lower Secondary Incomplete Upper secondary 100 90 12 12 17 80 20 16 17 19 16 25 30 21 70 26 60 50 40 76 78 68 69 73 70 64 68 63 65 30 58 58 20 10 0 Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Burkina Faso Chad Mali Mauritania Niger Sahel Source: Authors’ estimates based on EHCVM 2018 for Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, and Niger; and EPCV 2014 for Mauritania. Note: *That neither Study nor Work Figure A 7: Area of residence of inactive youth (15-24) Urban Rural 100 90 80 50 70 58 60 79 80 76 76 77 75 88 82 84 85 50 40 30 50 20 42 10 21 20 24 24 23 25 12 18 16 15 0 Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Burkina Faso Chad Mali Mauritania Niger Sahel Source: Authors’ estimates based on EHCVM 2018 for Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, and Niger; and EPCV 2014 for Mauritania. Note: *That neither Study nor Work Figure A 8: Reasons for dropping out of school after primary school completion (Girls) Pregnancy, marriage Family refusal/Quality* No school/distance Costs Others 100 90 27 80 28 4 32 28 70 60 50 40 81 30 30 64 67 66 20 10 21 0 Burkina Faso Chad Mali Mauritania Niger Source: Authors’ estimates based on EHCVM 2018 for Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, and Niger; and EPCV 2014 for Mauritania. Note: *The reason is labelled as “Quality” in Mauritania EPCV 2014 only. Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   93 Annex A. Figure A 9: Reasons for dropping out of secondary school after starting it (Girls) Pregnancy, marriage Family refusal/ Quality* No school/distance Costs Others 100 3 6 0 6 90 12 9 6 30 80 38 70 60 20 50 100 95 94 25 93 40 86 86 85 30 20 45 34 10 0 Lower Sec. Upper Sec. Lower Sec. Upper Sec. Lower Sec. Upper Sec. Lower Sec. Upper Sec. Lower Sec. Upper Sec. Burkina Faso Chad Mauritania Mali Niger Source: Authors’ estimates based on EHCVM 2018 for Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, and Niger; and EPCV 2014 for Mauritania. Note: *The reason is labelled as “Quality” in Mauritania EPCV 2014 only. 94   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition Annex B. Annex B. Simulation Model This Annex presents the findings of a simulation exercise in terms of enrollment projections and associated costs for univer- salizing primary education in the Sahel region. The note presents a specific set of estimates derived from a simulation model to estimate student enrollment and cost projections under different assumptions and scenarios. The tool estimates the cost of universalizing primary education up to 2030, based on enrollment estimates employing UN population projections and recent trends in promotion and retention rates. The tool allows adjusting target values for intake, promotion, and repetition rates to test various scenarios. The projections employ a reconstructive cohort method to calculate the enrollment flow, using several key assumptions on the inputs. The assumptions are: (i) the growth in the appropriate age for the particular level of education—ages 6-11 for primary education in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and ages 7-12 in Niger—follows the UN projections; (ii) the current pattern of student flow (intake, promotion, repetition, and transition rate) is extrapolated based on the trend based on the 2014-2019 data; (iii) the cost of primary education delivery, expressed as the share of GDP per capita, is to gradually grow to reach the global average by 2030; (iv) GDP per capita follows IMF projections for GDP and UN population projections; and (v) universal primary education is assumed to be achieved by 2030, in line with the Sustainable Development Goal #4 (SDG). Enrollment Projections Based on the current development trends in countries’ education systems—a “business as usual” scenario—primary educa- tion enrollment numbers will increase significantly but not GERs. The increase in enrollment figures between 2021 and 2030 is equivalent to 4.2 million more children studying, or an increase of 36 percent on average (Figure A 10). The largest increase in the student enrollment is to occur in Niger (79 percent), followed by Mauritania (26 percent), Mali (24 percent), and Burkina Faso (23 percent). At the same time, it is expected that the GER will increase marginally. Only Chad, due to its high repetition rates, around 17 percent, will manage to reach the GER of 100 percent. In Mauritania, the GER in primary education was high already in 2018/19—98 percent, and it is expected to grow marginally by 3 percentage points. Figure A 10: Student enrollment projections in primary education under the ‘Business as Usual’ scenario, million Student enrollment, million Niger Mauritania Mali Chad Burkina Faso 18 16 14 4.1 4.3 3.9 4.0 12 3.6 3.8 3.3 3.5 3.0 3.1 0.9 0.9 10 2.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 2.6 2.6 0.7 0.7 2.4 2.5 2.5 8 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.1 6 3.6 3.6 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.2 4 2.6 2 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.1 3.4 3.4 3.5 0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Source: Simulation model Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   95 Annex B. A closer look at the data from household surveys reveals that many children are not covered by education, and due to high rep- etition, a large share of students are overaged. Only half of 6-to-11-year-olds (7-to-12-year-olds in Niger)—the official schooling age in the Sahel countries—are in school. The Net Enrollment Rate (NER) varies from 46.5 percent in Chad (MICS 2019) to 55.7 percent in Mali. Figure A 11: Projected Gross Enrollment Rates in Figure A 12: Projected Net Enrollment Rates in primary education under the ‘Business as Usual’ primary education under alternative “Efficient” scenario scenario, 2020-2030 (percent) Mauritania Net Enrollment Rate 106% 101% 99.6% 99.7% 100.1% 99.7% 99.9% 100% Chad, 101% 96% 81.9% 81.2% Burkina Faso 80% 76.6% 77.3% 95% 69.6% 86% 60% 54.6% 55.7% 54.9% 52.6% 76% 46.5% 40% Niger 66% 71% 20% 56% Mali 59% 0% Burkina Faso Chad Mali Mauritania Niger 46% 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2018 or the latest available 2025 2030 Source: Simulation model Source: 2018—MICS/Household surveys; 2025 and 2030—simulation model. Fulfilling the countries’ commitment to SDG#4 and universal primary education by 2030 implies improvement in system effi- ciency that leads to more children completing the primary cycle and transitioning on to secondary school. A scenario with a gradually improving system efficiency in 2021-2030 includes increases in gross intake and promotion rates and declines in repeti- tion rates (see details on model assumptions in table A2 further below), as well as absorption of out-of-school children. This more efficient education system would allow achievement of 100 percent Net Enrollment Rate in primary education (see Figure A 12). The GER would go above 100 percent due to repetition and enrollment of overaged children. Under this scenario, school enrollment would more than double in Niger and Mali, and increase by 56 percent in Chad and by 1/3 in Burkina Faso and Mauritania. The number of students in the five countries would increase from 11.5 million in 2019 to 20.8 million in 2030. Achieving such a rapid expansion entails the retention of more children in schools, improving the acquisition of skills in primary education and allowing the majority of students who reach the end of primary to graduate successfully. Absorption of out-of-school children of primary school age (6/7- to 11/12-year-olds) by education systems would further in- crease enrollments. As a result, the number of students in primary education would increase on average by 5.9 percent per year on average in 2021-2030. Figure A 13 below shows enrollment projections until 2030 under the expansion scenario with gradually improving system policies and efficiency and including absorption of out-of-school children. 96   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition Annex B. Figure A 13: Student enrollment projections in primary education under the “Efficient System” scenario, million Student enrollment, million Niger Mauritania Mali Chad Burkina Faso 25 20 5.9 6.2 5.6 15 5.2 4.7 0.9 4.3 0.9 0.9 3.9 0.9 0.9 3.5 5.1 10 3.0 3.2 0.8 4.4 4.8 2.9 0.8 3.7 4.0 0.7 0.8 3.1 0.7 0.7 2.5 2.7 2.1 2.2 2.3 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.1 5 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 2.6 2.8 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Source: Simulation model Cost of universal primary education The amount of financial resources that countries allocate to education differs both in nominal and relative terms. While up- per-middle countries spend around US$ 2,504 per primary education child, low-middle-income countries spend US$ 891, and low-income countries only US$ 188. Reaching quality primary education requires countries to gradually increase education fi- nancing. In this exercise, we model gradually increasing spending per primary education student relative to GDP per capita from its baseline values to the global average of 14.6 percent (Figure A 14). Figure A 14: Spending per primary education student as % of GDP per capita (2019 or the latest available data) 16.0% 14.6% 13.4% 12.3% 9.7% 9.6% 8.0% 6.6% 6.2% 0.0% World Burkina Faso Mali Niger SSA Chad Mauritania Source: UNESCO UIS Absorbing the enrollment increases driven by improved quality and student flow in primary education will likely bring addi- tional cost: from US$ 70.4 million in Mauritania to US$ 175.9 million in Burkina Faso on average per year in 2020-2030 (Figure A 15). Meeting this challenge would require some countries to double public expenditures on primary education relative to GDP (Mali, Niger), while Chad will have to almost triple its public spending on primary education (Figure A 16). Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   97 Annex B. Figure A 15: Additional cost of primary education delivery for 2021-2025 and 2026-2030 (million $US) Business as usual Additional cost 2021-2025 2026-2030 3,000 4,500 3,000 169 1,500 1,304 1,538 109 1,313 120 129 1,500 1,703 977 1,199 77 1,562 918 1,475 570 1,336 688 857 367 457 0 0 Burkina Faso Chad Mali Mauritania Niger Burkina Faso Chad Mali Mauritania Niger Source: Simulation model Figure A 16: Cost of primary education, as % of projected GDP 3.0% 2.8% 2.8% 2.6% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 1.8% 1.8% 1.6% 1.5% 1.3% 1.1% 1.2% 0.9% 0.0% 2020 2025 2030 2020 2025 2030 2020 2025 2030 2020 2025 2030 2020 2025 2030 Burkina Faso Chad Mali Mauritania Niger Source: Simulation model Table A1: Cost of primary education under alternative ‘Efficient’ scenario, 2020-2030 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 In million US$ Burkina Faso 336.6 346.6 369.2 395.3 425.1 457.0 491.9 524.2 555.2 586.2 624.2 Chad 119.2 130.0 157.6 188.1 222.1 259.0 297.1 333.3 363.5 403.6 465.3 Mali 220.0 227.4 251.8 282.9 325.6 384.1 467.8 539.0 614.1 690.4 763.6 Mauritania 67.3 69.1 83.6 101.9 121.6 142.3 163.3 185.1 207.7 230.8 256.3 Niger 150.2 158.9 195.8 241.6 291.3 346.4 405.4 472.4 544.3 616.2 685.0 As % of GDP Burkina Faso 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.2% 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.4% Chad 1.1% 1.1% 1.3% 1.4% 1.6% 1.9% 2.0% 2.2% 2.3% 2.5% 2.8% Mali 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% 2.1% 2.3% 2.5% 2.6% 2.8% Mauritania 0.9% 0.9% 1.1% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.7% 1.9% 2.0% 2.1% 2.3% Niger 1.2% 1.1% 1.3% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% 1.9% 2.1% 2.3% 2.5% 2.6% Source: Simulation model 98   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition Annex B. Figure A 17: Cost of primary education, million $US 3,000 Chad Burkina Faso Mali Mauritania Niger 2,500 685.0 616.2 2,000 544.3 256.3 472.4 230.8 101.9 83.6 405.4 207.7 1,500 69.1 185.1 763.6 346.4 67.3 163.3 690.4 291.3 614.1 241.6 142.3 539.0 1,000 195.8 121.6 467.8 158.9 384.1 465.3 150.2 325.6 403.6 282.9 333.3 363.5 227.4 251.8 259.0 297.1 500 220.0 188.1 222.1 119.2 130.0 157.6 491.9 524.2 555.2 586.2 624.2 336.6 346.6 369.2 395.3 425.1 457.0 0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Source: Simulation model Simulation model assumptions Burkina Faso Chad Baseline Target Target Baseline Target Target 2019/20 value year 2019/20 value year Intake rate to grade 1 106% 100% 2026 128% 100% 2029 Promotion rates Grade 1->2 89% 99.5% 2026 62% 95.0% 2028 Grade 2->3 92% 99.5% 2026 69% 95.0% 2028 Grade 3->4 86% 99.5% 2026 66% 95.0% 2029 Grade 4->5 89% 99.5% 2026 66% 95.0% 2029 Grade 5->6 81% 98.0% 2026 68% 95.0% 2029 Repetition rates Grade 1 1.6% 0.5% 2026 18.7% 5.0% 2028 Grade 2 5.6% 0.5% 2026 17.5% 5.0% 2028 Grade 3 4.0% 0.5% 2026 17.0% 5.0% 2029 Grade 4 7.5% 0.5% 2026 17.5% 5.0% 2029 Grade 5 5.1% 2.0% 2026 16.3% 5.0% 2029 Grade 6 17.0% 2.0% 2026 17.6% 5.0% 2029 Government spending Per primary student as % of GDP per capita 13.4% 14.6% 2030 6.6% 14.6% 2030 Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   99 Annex B. Mali Mauritania Baseline Target Target Baseline Target Target 2019/20 value year 2019/20 value year Intake rate to grade 1 55% 100% 2027 107% 100% 2030 Promotion rates Grade 1->2 82% 93.0% 2030 98% 99.0% 2029 Grade 2->3 78% 93.0% 2030 91% 98.0% 2029 Grade 3->4 71% 94.0% 2030 84% 98.0% 2029 Grade 4->5 66% 94.0% 2030 83% 97.5% 2029 Grade 5->6 62% 95.0% 2030 84% 96.0% 2030 Repetition rates Grade 1 14.8% 7.0% 2030 1.0% 1.0% 2029 Grade 2 15.0% 7.0% 2030 3.3% 2.0% 2029 Grade 3 21.2% 6.0% 2030 4.7% 2.0% 2029 Grade 4 23.1% 6.0% 2030 5.2% 2.5% 2029 Grade 5 24.8% 5.0% 2030 6.4% 4.0% 2030 Grade 6 22.9% 5.0% 2030 11.2% 4.0% 2030 Government spending Per primary student as % of GDP per capita 12.3% 14.6% 2030 6.2% 14.6% 2030 Niger Baseline Target Target 2019/20 value year Intake rate to grade 1 88% 100% 2025 Promotion rates Grade 1->2 84% 99.9% 2027 Grade 2->3 91% 98.4% 2028 Grade 3->4 91% 98.0% 2028 Grade 4->5 91% 97.5% 2028 Grade 5->6 88% 97.2% 2028 Repetition rates Grade 1 0.1% 0.1% 2028 Grade 2 1.6% 1.6% 2028 Grade 3 2.0% 2.0% 2028 Grade 4 2.5% 2.5% 2028 Grade 5 2.8% 2.8% 2028 Grade 6 8.8% 5.0% 2028 Government spending Per primary student as % of GDP per capita 9.7% 14.6% 2030 100   Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow Summit edition PHOTO BY: © VINCENT TREMEAU / WORLD BANK Summit edition Sahel Education White Paper    The Wealth of Today and Tomorrow   101 PHOTO BY: © DORTE VERNER / WORLD BANK