Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: ICR00005536 IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT Grant No. TF0B3738 ON A GRANT IN THE AMOUNT OF US$ 850,000 TO THE International Alert FOR Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for BARMM (P173706) 27 January, 2022 Social Sustainability And Inclusion Global Practice East Asia And Pacific Region Regional Vice President: Manuela V. Ferro Country Director: Ndiamé Diop Regional Director: Benoit Bosquet Practice Manager: Janamejay Singh Task Team Leader(s): Ditte Marie Fallesen ICR Main Contributor: Maria Carmen Fernandez ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS BARMM Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao BCMS Bangsamoro Conflict Monitoring System BTA Bangsamoro Transitional Authority CA Conflict Alert CEMS Critical Events Monitoring System CLUP Comprehensive Land Use Plan COVID-19 Coronavirus Disease 2019 CSO Civil Society Organization DAR Department of Agrarian Reform DC Dansalan College DILG Department of Interior and Local Government ESF Environmental and Social Framework FM Financial Management GIS Geographic Information System GPH Government of the Philippines HUDCC Housing and Urban Development Coordinating Council IAP International Alert Philippines ICR Implementation Completion and Results Report IP Indigenous Peoples ISM Implementation Support Mission LGU Local Government Unit MAA Most Affected Areas M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MILF Moro Islamic Liberation Front MILG Ministry of Interior and Local Government MPOS Ministry of Public Order and Safety MSVG Multistakeholder Validation Group MTF Mindanao Trust Fund NDU Notre Dame University PDO Project Development Objective PRUA People Resource Use Agenda READI Rapid Emergency Action on Disaster Incidence RUMP Resource Use Management Plan TFBM Task Force Bangon Marawi TWG Technical Working Group WMSU Western Mindanao State University TABLE OF CONTENTS DATA SHEET ....................................................................... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES ....................................................... 4 II. OUTCOME .................................................................................................................... 10 III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME ................................ 18 IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME .. 20 V. LESSONS LEARNED AND RECOMMENDATIONS .............................................................. 23 ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS ........................................................... 26 ANNEX 2. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT ........................................................................... 35 ANNEX 3. RECIPIENT, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS ...... 36 ANNEX 4. SAMPLE DATA AND GRAPHS FROM CONFLICT ALERT 2020 REPORT ...............ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. The World Bank Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for BARMM (P173706) DATA SHEET BASIC INFORMATION Product Information Project ID Project Name Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for P173706 BARMM Country Financing Instrument Philippines Investment Project Financing Original EA Category Revised EA Category Organizations Borrower Implementing Agency International Alert International Alert Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO The PDO is to strengthen capacity of multiple stakeholders in BARMM for participatory, inclusive and conflict- sensitive resource-based planning and management and strengthen conflict-related data and analytical foundations for government and community decision-making. Page | 1 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for BARMM (P173706) FINANCING FINANCE_TBL Original Amount (US$) Revised Amount (US$) Actual Disbursed (US$) Donor Financing TF-B3738 850,000 850,000 850,000 Total 850,000 850,000 850,000 Total Project Cost 850,000 850,000 850,000 KEY DATES Approval Effectiveness Original Closing Actual Closing 16-Aug-2020 24-Sep-2020 31-Mar-2021 31-Mar-2021 RESTRUCTURING AND/OR ADDITIONAL FINANCING Date(s) Amount Disbursed (US$M) Key Revisions KEY RATINGS Outcome Bank Performance M&E Quality Satisfactory Satisfactory High RATINGS OF PROJECT PERFORMANCE IN ISRs Actual No. Date ISR Archived DO Rating IP Rating Disbursements (US$M) 01 16-Nov-2020 Satisfactory Satisfactory 0.00 02 25-Feb-2021 Satisfactory Satisfactory 0.58 Page | 2 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for BARMM (P173706) ADM STAFF Role At Approval At ICR Regional Vice President: Victoria Kwakwa Manuela V. Ferro Country Director: Ndiame Diop Ndiame Diop Director: Benoit Bosquet Benoit Bosquet Practice Manager: Janamejay Singh Janamejay Singh Ditte Marie Gammelgaard Task Team Leader(s): Ditte Marie Gammelgaard Fallesen Fallesen ICR Contributing Author: Maria Carmen Fernandez Page | 3 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for BARMM (P173706) I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES A. Context 1. At the time of the preparation of the Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Approaches in the BARMM Project (henceforth, the project) in mid-2020, the Philippines was navigating unforeseen shocks due to the spread of the coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) and related containment measures, which magnified existing uncertainty and vulnerability of populations considered among the poorest in the country. The Philippine economy contracted by 10 percent in the first three quarters of 2020 amid a global recession, resulting in an additional 2.7 million poor.1 The largest share of Filipino poor live in the southern island-region of Mindanao, home to roughly 25 percent of the country’s population but representing 39 percent of the poor. These conditions of poverty and deprivation, combined with environmental hazards and climate-related vulnerability, are heightened in Mindanao’s conflict-affected areas, notably in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), previously known as the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM). 2. The peace agreement signed between the Government of the Philippines (GPH) and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) in 2014 and the popular ratification of its enabling law in 2019 raised expectations for peace and stability in the BARMM. While the peace agreement led to a general reduction of violence between the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and nonstate armed groups in the region, horizontal and intercommunal violence remains, including disputes related to land. In February 2018, members of the Bangsamoro Transition Authority (BTA), tasked to create the administrative structure of the new autonomous region, legislate new laws, and run the regional government until elections of new officials are held in May 2025,2 were appointed and sworn into office by President Rodrigo Duterte. More than half of the 80-member BTA come from the MILF, whose Central Committee chairman, Ahod Balawag Ebrahim (popularly known as Al-Haj Murad Ebrahim), was appointed as interim Chief Minister. The BTA, mandated to overhaul the region’s institutions before the first election of the Bangsamoro Parliament originally scheduled in 2022, was therefore challenged to deliver services amid a pandemic that has triggered new tensions but also plays into and affects existing conflict patterns.3 3. One such tension is the unfinished reconstruction of the Islamic City of Marawi in the northern Mindanao province of Lanao del Sur. In May 2017, a five-month conflict between the Armed Forces of the Philippines and a coalition of Islamist organizations linked to the so-called Islamic State destroyed 95 percent of the infrastructure in the city’s 250-hectare urban core, popularly known as the Most Affected Area (MAA). Over 1 “Philippines Economic Update December 2020: Building a Resilient Recovery,� World Bank. 2 Legislation extending the mandate of the BTA from 2022 until 2025 was awaiting President Duterte’s signature at the time of the ICR preparation. Republic Act No. 115931, the law postponing the Bangsamoro regional elections to 2025 and extending the mandate of the BTA, was signed on 29 October, 2019. 3 The World Bank Group; DRAFT Mindanao Peace Lens–Operational Task Team’s Handbook, April 2020 identifies various drivers of violence in Muslim Mindanao: (a) social injustice and alienation, and exclusion of Muslim and indigenous peoples (IP); (b) displacement of indigenous peoples from their ancestral domain; (c) inter-ethnic conflicts; (d) “rido� or clan war and revenge killing; (e) land tenure and ownership disputes; (f) competition for scarce natural and mineral resources; (g) local election disputes; (h) ineffective governance and lack of rule of law and service delivery; and (i) widespread poverty and lack of job opportunities. Page | 4 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for BARMM (P173706) 350,000 inhabitants were displaced. Immediately after the cessation of hostilities, the national government created Task Force Bangon Marawi (TFBM) to rebuild the city. While one master plan was envisaged, two plans were developed: the Bangon Marawi Comprehensive Rehabilitation and Recovery Program (BMCRRP) for non- MAA to be led by the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) and the infrastructure-focused RISE (Resilience, Identity, Sustainability, and Evolution) Marawi Plan for the MAA under the oversight of the Housing and Urban Development Coordinating Council (HUDCC).4 At the time of project preparation, approximately 210 out of the 744 plans, programs, and activities (PPA) listed in the BMCRRP had been implemented based on a National Economic and Development Authority review assisted by the World Bank. MAA residents had been barred from returning until the new roads and public infrastructure in the RISE master plan were completed. For cleared areas, families had to submit land titles and various government permits to rebuild their homes. 4. The perceived lack of information, dialogue, and progress; nonpassage of compensation legislation for their losses; and poor water supply and sanitation in transitory shelters were sources of frustration for Marawi citizens. These were heightened by quarantine-related mobility restrictions that affected the local economy and food security.5 By early July 2020, the BARMM had registered 149 confirmed COVID-19 cases, with more than half of these from Lanao del Sur.6 In this environment, uncertainty around land ownership and property rights was feared as a potential flashpoint in Marawi, where the tenurial regime is informed by communal clan-based practices predating the introduction of the Torrens Title system at the turn of the twentieth century. A 2020 report prepared by the BTA’s Special Committee on Marawi found that about half of MAA residents have no “clean� uncontested titles because of multiple overlaps and tenurial infirmities, and at least half of MAA residents will be affected or displaced by the new roads and public infrastructure. While a TFBM Land Dispute Resolution Committee (LDRC) to be co-chaired by the local government and the BARMM’s Ministry of Human Settlements and Development (MHSD) had been announced, it was not yet operational. Thus, land-related issues were seen as a source of conflict between and among families. They also fed into the narrative employed by violent extremist groups around state dispossession of Muslim land. 5. Continued displacement of tens of thousands of families around Lanao del Sur and elsewhere led to spillover effects for host municipalities around the province, which themselves had been sites of land and resource conflicts long before the 2017 crisis. The Marawi local government unit (LGU) has with external support prepared the Comprehensive Land Use Plan (CLUP) required by the Department of Interior and Local Government (DILG) in tandem with the RISE Marawi Plan. The CLUP will serve to inform the Comprehensive Development Plan outlining core investment priorities for Marawi for the subsequent three-year period. It is, however, unclear that the CLUP is based on an inclusive and consultative process. LGUs in the surrounding areas of Marawi have not finalized their CLUPs or their Comprehensive Development Plans, which are complex cross- sectoral planning documents. These areas include the municipalities of Kapai, Bubong, and Ditsaan-Ramain. 4 Administrative Order No. 09, issued on 27 October, 2017, restructured the TFBM. HUDCC Secretary Eduardo del Rosario was appointed as chairperson and the secretaries of the Department of National Defense (DND) and Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) as vice chairs. This gave the HUDCC operational control and supervision over the TFBM. HUDCC has since been transformed by law into the new Department of Human Settlements and Development (DHSUD), still led by Secretary del Rosario. 5 See World Bank-supported consultations and reports from the Marawi Reconstruction Conflict Watch supported by International Alert Philippines (IAP). 6 “BARMM doubles efforts to monitor the influx of LSIs, ROFs,� BARMM, accessed 6 July, 2020, https://bangsamoro.gov.ph/news/latest- news/barmm-doubles-efforts-to-monitor-the-influx-of-lsis-rofs/. Page | 5 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for BARMM (P173706) 6. Rationale for World Bank support. The project was therefore meant to address the need for quality evidence and analysis to support participatory, inclusive, and conflict-sensitive decision-making, especially around land and resource management, at multiple scales. This is consistent with country needs and government priorities and is aligned with or complementary to ongoing operations in the project area. Under the World Bank’s FY20– 25 Country Partnership Framework, Focus Area #3 (“Addressing Core Vulnerabilities by Building Peace and Resilience�) and Objective #8 (“Increased availability of services in conflict-affected areas�) outline the Bank’s support for Marawi and the importance of providing inclusive rehabilitation of basic services in and around the city. This engagement is linked to the activities implemented by the Mindanao Trust Fund (MTF), a multidonor facility supporting peace and development in Mindanao, which also contributes to Objective #10 (“Support to the normalization process in the Bangsamoro region).� 7. At the time of project preparation, the MTF, which was launched in 2005 at the request of the GPH, was winding down after three phases of development assistance. Informed by a joint needs assessment (JNA) in 2004 and 2005 of conflict-affected areas in Southern Philippines, the MTF was mandated to consolidate international development assistance for the socioeconomic recovery of conflict-affected communities in Mindanao and fund programs and projects that promote economic opportunity, provide access to basic services, and build social cohesion to help create stable and secure communities. During the project preparation period, the focus of the MTF was shifting from the original intention of helping the GPH and MILF prepare for a peace agreement to helping them implement it. 8. This work was parallel to the Bank’s technical assistance to the TFBM, which took on multiple tracks: (a) engagement with National Economic and Development Authority on the development of the Bangon Marawi Comprehensive Rehabilitation and Recovery Program ; (b) facilitation of extensive consultations with main stakeholder groups in Marawi to inform the proposed development of the MAA; (c) technical assistance for the development of the TFBM’s Monitoring and Information System (MIS) and a Citizen Engagement Strategy (CES); (d) development of Kathanor, the profiling and registration system for internally displaced persons, in cooperation with the World Food Programme; and (e) support to Kambisita, the government’s initiative to help displaced families from the MAA visit their homes for the first time and retrieve personal belongings. The Bank, in coordination with the Asian Development Bank, also led the development partner coordination of technical and financial assistance at the request of the GPH. Multiple technical notes, policy briefs, and other knowledge and communication products were also developed in support of the TFBM’s evolving programs and activities. 9. Given this shifting context, access to solid data and analysis on conflict patterns in the BARMM, particularly those related to land and property, is critical to ensure that the World Bank, the GPH and its TFBM, the BTA, and other stakeholders on the ground can respond appropriately, mitigate risks and support the peace process, and transition from conflict to sustainable peace. This is also consistent with the targets and needs set by the Philippine Development Plan, the BTA’s Bangsamoro Development Plan 2020–2022, as well as various commitments related to land-related policy and post-conflict reconstruction in the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro, Bangsamoro Organic Law, and the Bangsamoro Administrative Code. 10. As project activities were financed under the MTF, project implementation was limited by the hard deadline set for the fund’s closure: 30 June, 2021. Disbursing projects under the MTF had to conclude at least three months before this date. Page | 6 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for BARMM (P173706) 11. Figure 1 presents the results chain for the project as envisaged at the time of the appraisal. The links between the activities supported under the main project components and related key outputs and long-term outcomes are presented. It is noteworthy that there was no theory of change (TOC) in the project paper; the results framework is provided as Annex 1. The TOC presented below has been prepared for the purpose of this Implementation Competition and Results Report (ICR) as per the World Bank ICR Guidelines. Figure 1. Theory of Change Project Development Objectives (PDOs) 12. The PDO as stated in the signed Grant Agreement is to strengthen the capacity of the LGUs of Marawi, Kapai, Bubong and Ditsaan-Ramain for participatory, inclusive and conflict-sensitive resource-based planning and management. The PDO as stated in the Project Paper is to strengthen capacity of multiple stakeholders in the BARMM for participatory, inclusive, and conflict-sensitive resource-based planning and management and strengthen conflict- related data and analytical foundations for government and community decision-making. The two PDOs are substantively consistent. For accuracy and consistency, this ICR, along with official reports prepared by International Page | 7 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for BARMM (P173706) Alert Philippines (IAP) and the World Bank team throughout the implementation process, uses the Project Paper PDO. This appropriately captures the scope of the project, as it covers not only the four LGUs in Lanao del Sur but also the entirety of BARMM. Key Expected Outcomes and Outcome Indicators 13. The project paper identified two expected results against which the achievements of the project would be measured: (a) Increase in access to and use of conflict data and analysis generated by Resource Use and Management Planning (RUMP) and Conflict Alert (CA) by key stakeholders in the BARMM; and (b) Increase in organizational and institutional capacity of local government representatives for participatory, inclusive, and conflict-sensitive planning processes. 14. To substantiate the expected outcome statement on increased access to and use of conflict data and analysis, three sub-indicators were identified in the results framework: (a) CA annual reports downloaded from the website; (b) Informative/instructional videos, infographics, and other multimedia materials showcasing results of analytical and thematic reports; and (c) Stakeholder-specific briefings for national and local agencies, policy makers, local governments, the diplomatic community, international and national media, and academia to inform analysis and decision- making. 15. In contrast to the Conflict Alert workstream, no PDO sub-indicators were explicitly identified in the Results Framework under the outcome statement on increasing capacity for conflict-sensitive planning. Instead, this was tracked through pre- and post-training assessments, reflecting the process undertaken by IAP and the Bank team to calibrate the target and indicator. While the explicit link between improving access to data, providing training, and improved planning and response is part of the project’s intrinsic design, IAP and the Bank were careful to delimit the project’s design to what could be realistically and sensibly delivered and measured within the abbreviated implementation period. Several intermediate indicators relate to the capacity for conflict- sensitive planning, such as the number of participatory and inclusive workshops conducted with community stakeholders; thematic maps developed by stakeholders in the RUMP process and LGU officials trained on techniques for participatory, inclusive, and conflict-sensitive planning processes. Anecdotal feedback from partner LGUs and institutions was also gathered and included in this ICR. In addition, stakeholder interviews were conducted for purposes of triangulation. 16. The intermediate indicators can be found in Annex 1. Components 17. The project had three technical components and a fourth component relating to project management and reporting. Page | 8 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for BARMM (P173706) 18. Component 1: Providing useful, timely, and reliable conflict data (appraisal cost US$306,000; actual cost US$ 295,000). This component supported the subnational conflict monitoring system “Conflict Alert� or CA, an ongoing activity initiated by IAP with World Bank funding since 2015. Built on an initial database supported by the Bank since 2013, CA tracks the incidence, causes, and human costs of violent conflict in the Philippines.7 It aims to shape policy making, development strategies, and peacebuilding approaches by providing relevant, robust, and reliable conflict data and analysis on general conflict trends in the BARMM. Project support enabled IAP to continue the gathering, encoding, and analysis of conflict data in the Bangsamoro toward the goal of completing a panel dataset for the years 2011–2020. The anonymized dataset is made available on the CA website, with analysis released through an annual report and other thematic reports. 19. Component 2: Strengthening Resource Use and Management Planning or RUMP (appraisal cost US$252,000; actual cost US$281,000). This component consisted of two parts. One is the application of the RUMP tool in Marawi City and the municipalities of Kapai, Bubong, and Ditsaan-Ramain in Lanao del Sur. The other aimed to strengthen the capacity of LGU officials for participatory, inclusive, and conflict-sensitive processes to facilitate community input into development planning and build community buy-in. It supported: (a) communities coming together to identify sources of conflict and articulate their vision for the development of their community through a series of workshops; (b) the generation of community maps to serve as the evidence base on existing and potential land disputes arising from contested formal or informal land titles and rights, border or boundary disputes, spurious land claims, including effect of policy overlaps of land management agencies; and (c) completion of each LGU’s People Resource Use Agenda (PRUA). This expanded the RUMP processes implemented by IAP in 2018 under a World Bank contract in three municipalities bordering Marawi: Saguiaran, Piagapo, and Marantao. 20. Component 3: Carrying out a program of activities to increase demand and usage of available data (appraisal cost US$85,000; actual cost US$64,000). This component financed the preparation of thematic briefings on demand to LGUs and BARMM officials on issues related to participatory and inclusive processes, resource use and management, violent conflict and COVID-19-related incidents, and emerging issues related to humanitarian crisis and violent extremism. Videos, infographics, and other multimedia materials highlighting the project findings were prepared, alongside an online Conflict Analysis Resource Center integrated into the existing CA website. 21. Component 4: Project management and reporting (appraisal cost US$151,000; actual cost US$154,000). This component supported IAP and its local partners in project management and procured necessary consultancy, equipment, and operational support for project implementation. 22. Component interlinkages. CA in component 1 covers all of the BARMM with special focus placed on Marawi and Lanao del Sur. CA data were used for the framing briefings with partner LGUs and were integrated into the RUMP thematic maps, especially in cases of multicausal violence and conflict strings resulting from land- or resource- 7Launched in 2016, CA combines two databases: the Bangsamoro Conflict Monitoring System (BCMS) established in 2013 with World Bank funding, and the Southern and Eastern Mindanao Conflict Database (SEMCD) launched in 2015 and supported by the Royal Norwegian Government. The BCMS covers the now-defunct ARMM and the cities of Isabela and Cotabato while the Southern and Eastern Mindanao Conflict Database covers the Davao and Caraga regions along Mindanao’s southern and eastern corridors. Datasets from CA are supplemented by inputs from IAP’s Critical Events Monitoring System (CEMS) and Early Response Networks (ERN) comprising local disaster risk reduction officers and civil society monitors across the Bangsamoro. CEMS and ERN activities are largely financed by Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. Page | 9 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for BARMM (P173706) based conflicts and the Marawi rehabilitation process. At the municipal and provincial levels, both IAP and local respondents noted that RUMP tends to be the most useful entry point for dialogue from the community perspective, after which CA data can be used to substantiate discussions regarding long-term trends. RUMP integration with CA data collection was not explicitly included in the project design but was organically emerged over the course of implementation. B. Significant Changes during Implementation 23. The PDO, outcome targets, indicators, and components were not significantly changed during project implementation. 24. Due to ongoing sensitivities in Marawi, a modified RUMP process and strategy was applied to avoid exacerbating tensions and respond to identified demands of the city government. Instead of community mapping workshops and the development of a PRUA similar to what was done in the municipalities of Kapai, Bubong, and Ditsaan-Ramain under this project and previous RUMP activities across Mindanao, the Marawi process focused on visualizing the parcellary survey and other datasets into thematic overlays. 25. These changes were discussed by IAP and the Bank team following discussions between IAP and the Marawi city government. Three meetings were held between Mayor Majul Gandamra and IAP to level off on data access, feasible processes, and ways forward. Once agreements on methodological modifications were reached, IAP submitted the final approach in writing to the World Bank. II. OUTCOME A. Relevance of PDO: High 26. Based on its alignment with the Country Partnership Framework, as well as close consistency with the priorities set by the GPH in relation to peace and stability in the Bangsamoro in general and in Marawi and Lanao del Sur in particular, the relevance of the project objectives, design, and implementation is rated as high. 27. The project supports the World Bank Country Partnership Framework in “Addressing Core Vulnerabilities by Building Peace and Resilience� in Mindanao, providing a much-needed evidence base for informing not only Bank operations but also general decision-making and multistakeholder collaboration in conflict areas. At present, CA is the first and remains the primary disaggregated and geolocated public dataset on armed violence in Mindanao, covering a decade of conflict effects. As an invaluable analytical resource, key stakeholders acknowledge the merits of supporting CA, not least due to the fact that the cost of setting up a new system is much higher than the cost of sustaining an existing one. Similarly, RUMP outputs respond to the dearth of high-quality, participatory, and locally generated and owned spatial data and resource-management plans in the BARMM. 28. Thus, the PDO is highly relevant to national, regional, and local objectives, particularly the first BARMM Bangsamoro Development Framework’s overall goal of “upliftment of the lives of the Bangsamoro and Page | 10 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for BARMM (P173706) establishment of the foundations of self-governance through moral governance� as well as at least eight of the 12-point priority agenda of the BARMM, especially normalization, Marawi reconstruction, environmental conservation, resource management, and economic development. 29. The project responded to stakeholder demand, with the IAP-facilitated RUMP process addressing municipal and provincial land use planning and resource management requirements identified in Republic Act No. 7160, the 1991 Local Government Code, and related national policies. The project’s focus on support and capacity building of local government and community stakeholder representatives is relevant considering the 2018 Supreme Court’s Mandanas ruling, under which the share of national government tax revenue to be transferred to local governments will increase substantially beginning in 2022. It is hoped that implementation of the ruling will strengthen decentralization, improve service delivery, and increase avenues for citizen accountability at the city, municipal, and provincial levels in the BARMM. The project contributes to the basic data and bureaucratic infrastructure required to make this possible. 30. As continuing support for existing activities, the project objectives were appropriately realistic despite the limiting conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic. B. Achievement of PDO (Efficacy): Substantial 31. The project’s objectives were successfully delivered on time despite the limitations posed by the COVID -19 pandemic and the abbreviated five-month window for implementation. This section is organized around each of the two outcomes included in the PDO, divided into the two main components: CA and RUMP. Component 3, or activities designed to increase demand and usage of available data, contributes to both outcomes and primary components. Assessment of Achievement of Each Objective/Outcome Objective 1: Strengthen conflict-related data and analytical foundations for government and community decision- making 32. Component 1. CA. In line with the goal of providing useful, timely, and reliable conflict data and analysis, the project supported the maintenance of the CA database for calendar year 2020, thereby completing the 10-year panel data of conflict incidents from 2011–2020. A total of 2,323 conflict incidents covering BARMM provinces and Isabela City for the period of January to December 2020 were encoded, covering 12 months’ worth of data instead of the nine months originally committed in the Results Framework. Various periodic data quality control measures were also implemented. It must be noted, however, that the cost of updating and maintaining the database is high: The cost per coded event is roughly US$132. 33. Five multistakeholder validation group (MSVG) meetings in the provinces of Maguindanao, Lanao del Sur, and Basilan were convened with academic partners—Notre Dame University (NDU) in Cotabato City, Dansalan College (DC) in Marawi City, and Western Mindanao State University (WMSU) in Zamboanga City—to triangulate encoded police and media reports with local knowledge and identify long-term patterns. Of these, one each were implemented in Basilan and Maguindanao and three in Lanao del Sur. Due to the short project window and heightened COVID-19 restrictions in Zamboanga City, MSVG meetings in Sulu and Tawi-Tawi were not held during Page | 11 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for BARMM (P173706) the period. This, however, had no significant bearing on the quality of the data gathered, analyzed, and presented in the CA 2020 report, which was informed by MSVGs conducted prior to the project period. 34. The Results Framework indicator, “increase access to and use of conflict data and analysis generated by the RUMP and Conflict Alert by key stakeholders in BARMM�, is substantiated by the various accomplishments associated with the CA 2020 publication with charts, maps, and tables. The CA 2020 report, “Enduring Wars,� was presented at a virtual public launch in January 2021, providing both long-view (2011–2019) and short-view (2018–2019) analysis that surfaced critical issues significantly impacting the Bangsamoro transition. A compendium of seven thematic briefs were prepared, as well as a brief on COVID-19 that analyzes the impact of the pandemic on conflict dynamics in the BARMM. 35. As the primary public dataset on violent incidents in the Bangsamoro, the CA report garnered substantial media interest. The online launch had 289 attendees, a 140 percent increase from the launching of the CA 2019 report, while turnout at the press briefing was 58 percent bigger than in 2019. As of April 2021, right after project closing, the CA 2020 report has been downloaded 716 times from 43 countries, of which 77 percent are from academic institutions in the Philippines and abroad. Sixty-one requests for the CA dataset were fielded during the project period, of which 74 percent came from the Philippines. The 716 digital downloads fall short of the 800 downloads target set in the Results Framework, although this is offset by the release of 886 hard copy reports as well as various instructional videos, infographics, and multimedia. A total of 48 multimedia materials based on the report and its findings were produced, well beyond the 15-material target set in the Results Framework. 36. Twenty-six articles from local and international media were generated based on the report. IAP was also invited to provide commentary and analytical pieces by major national broadsheets and media outlets on topics discussed in the report, such as the Bangsamoro transition process and transition-related violence, land dispossession in the Teduray-Lambangian areas in Maguindanao, tensions in Marawi City and surrounding areas due to continued displacement, and the lack of significant progress of the Marawi Compensation Bill. 37. The project generated a total of 8 thematic briefs, well beyond the singular thematic report regarding COVID- 19 and violent conflict envisioned in the Results Framework. This covers a compendium of seven thematic briefs produced and featured in the CA 2020 Report as discussion boxes, as well as one thematic brief analyzing the impact of the pandemic to the conflict dynamics in the Bangsamoro. 38. Although the PDO commits to increasing “access to and use of conflict data and analysis,� uptake is limited by whether or not decision-makers, particularly at the level of the BARMM and national government, fully appreciate and support the use of objective empirical data to inform policy and operational decision-making. To manage this, IAP took the dual approach of providing briefings to stakeholders on demand, while making the data available on online platforms and through mass media to help shape public discourse and provide national media institutions real-time access to local voices and actors (see Component 3). 39. A total of 14 thematic briefings were provided to local officials and BARMM ministries, while 16 customized briefings were conducted among legislators, diplomats, media, United Nations (UN) agencies, local and international academic institutions, and civil society networks on demand, with least seven additional CA thematic briefings requested beyond the project period. This outstrips the target of 10 stakeholder briefings and six thematic briefings indicated in the Results Framework. Members of the Senate and House of Representatives Page | 12 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for BARMM (P173706) called on IAP and its partners as resource persons on the Marawi Compensation Bill and the Equality and Non- discrimination on Race, Ethnicity, and Religion Bill. In an interview conducted for the ICR, one legislative office noted that it would have been difficult to get up-to-date grounded analysis on the BARMM and Marawi reconstruction without the assistance of IAP. Nationally published commentaries based on CA data helped inform debates regarding the then-proposed legislation to extend the mandate of the MILF-led BTA to 2025, raising hard questions on the broader context of normalization and the Bangsamoro democratic project. 40. From the community perspective, IAP, CA, and support activities such as the Alerto!Bangsamoro radio program, which is also streamed online, provided opportunities for local voices to be magnified and to reach audiences at the regional and national levels, thus improving access to information at multiple scales. As will be discussed below, this must be seen in the broader context of IAP’s suite of activities in the BARMM that go beyond the project and Bank financing, including the Critical Events Monitoring System (CEMS)8 and the Marawi Reconstruction Conflict Watch (MRCW). 41. IAP also provided tailored briefings to World Bank teams with projects under preparation or implementation in the BARMM and Mindanao. These include the rural development and agriculture teams managing the Support to Parcelization of Land Individual Titles and Mindanao Inclusive Agriculture Development Project, and the Sustainability and Social Inclusion team handling the Marawi Rehabilitation project. 42. The project enabled the printing and distribution of 886 copies of CA reports within two months to stakeholders in Manila and Mindanao. Recognizing the shift to online platforms because of pandemic restrictions, Component 3 supported the production of infographics and videos for social media dissemination, as well as the Conflict Analysis Resource Center embedded in the CA website. 43. Component 2. RUMP. IAP successfully implemented RUMP processes in the municipalities of Bubong, Ditsaan- Ramain, and Kapai and a modified process in Marawi City, achieving the goal of completing 3 PRUA documents to Kapai, Bubong, and Ditsaan Ramain. A modified brief was submitted to the local government of Marawi City, with context information provided below. 44. Component 2.1: Bubong, Ditsaan-Ramain, and Kapai. For Bubong, Ditsaan-Ramain, and Kapai, the RUMP process covers two subcomponents: (a) the use of geographic information system- or GIS-based technology to assist community members in mapping local resources; and (b) the identification of solutions for resource-based conflict and utilization issues, summarized in a PRUA document that can inform local planning and decision-making processes. The project enabled the preparation of tailored PRUA documents for the three municipalities, formulated through a total of 34 workshops involving 362 community representatives, exceeding the original target of 25 workshops. Apart from local government representatives at the provincial, municipal, and barangay levels, these workshops involved local farmers, fisherfolk, youth, local vendors, Muslim religious leaders, and the elderly, of whom 45 percent were women. A total of 293 general reference, resource use, and thematic maps were produced, combining both official geospatial data and local knowledge on resources and conflicts. This well exceeded the original target of 70 maps indicated in the Results Framework. 8The CEMS employs SMS and high-frequency radio-based reporting system for real-time monitoring of conflict incidents and is implemented by the Early Response Network. The CEMS is largely funded through a grant from Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade -Australia. Page | 13 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for BARMM (P173706) 45. The participatory aspect of the RUMP intervention goes two ways: first, to support local governments and their constituents to collectively and collaboratively identify and agree on objectives and specific areas for various uses, therefore improving upon existing datasets and processes; and secondly; to train and empower LGU technical staff to use GIS software to directly conduct basic thematic overlays themselves. This facilitated multistakeholder discussions on the 40,597.88 hectares of land covered by the 91 barangays across the three municipalities. A project grievance redress mechanism was also put in place as part of Environmental and Social Framework (ESF), but did not come into play given the short period of implementation. 46. Beyond achieving targets at the activity and output levels, evidence that the project objective of “strengthening the analytical foundations for government and community decision-making� was met is derived from how local leaders used RUMP to confront long-standing land-related issues. A total of 68 land-related conflict cases were surfaced during the workshops and will be triangulated with and integrated into the CA database. The RUMP processes helped local actors identify and correct barangay-level overlaps as well as so-called “unclaimed� land, or spaces that none of the municipality’s barangays had identified as part of their land area. In interviews undertaken for this ICR, the three mayors confirmed that they are formalizing the corrected barangay boundaries through resolutions to be passed by their Sangguniang Bayan (municipal legislative bodies), which will then be submitted to the Provincial Land Use Committee (PLUC) of Lanao del Sur. Land disputes between individuals and families were forwarded to the relevant local dispute resolution mechanism and recommended for land registration and titling. 47. At the provincial level, basemaps provided by IAP to Lanao del Sur helped officials plot out COVID-19 response options. Two mayors said RUMP provided valuable data to inform their long-term investment programs, particularly to assess agro-industrial suitability and planning locations of transport and trade terminals and other public infrastructure. One planning officer said the municipality realized only during the discussion of soil suitability that its investment in Indonesian gum was unsuited to local soil type and elevation; it now uses RUMP recommendations to explore viable crops. Another planning officer said that RUMP’s participatory modules, convened with barangay captains and stakeholders, helped municipal leaders map a local lake that they were previously unaware of. In all cases RUMP identified issues that cannot be addressed at the local level, such as intermunicipal, interprovincial, or interregional boundary conflicts. A presentation to the provincial government of Lanao del Sur on intermunicipal boundary conflicts across all RUMP sites has been proposed. 48. However, other long-standing policy issues can only be addressed by BARMM regional and national government authorities, such as the fundamental negative incentive of land use as a factor in Internal Revenue Allotment (IRA) computation or overlapping laws that disallow construction of sanitary landfills within the lake Lanao watershed, which exacerbate solid waste and sanitation problems for many municipalities in Lanao del Sur. These challenges underpin the problematic land governance regime in the Bangsamoro and in the Philippines as a whole. 49. All three municipalities said that they were using RUMP and the PRUA to update their CLUP, explaining that it helped them generate up to 70 percent of the CLUP technical requirements in a fast and comprehensive manner compared with the laborious and often costly four-module CLUP setup required by the Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board (HLURB), now integrated as part of the new Department of Human Settlements and Development) and DILG.9 They expressed hope that IAP could extend technical assistance for CLUP updating, 9 In the BARMM, the Ministry of Human Settlements and Development has absorbed Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board Page | 14 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for BARMM (P173706) which is one of the requirements for the Seal of Good Local Governance from the DILG and now the Ministry of Interior and Local Government (MILG). Given IAP’s discussions with the provincial government of Lanao del Sur to conduct RUMP processes across all of its municipalities, local demand is an important opportunity to begin addressing the BARMM’s land administration and management infirmities from the ground up. 50. Component 2.2: Marawi. As in many places in the Bangsamoro, housing, land, and property arrangements in Marawi are multilayered, featuring a complex interplay of legal-normative prescription of vested rights and clan- based institutional norms of ownership and an extensive informal land market, as well as the possession and occupation of land whose rights are formally vested on the Armed Forces of the Philippines, Mindanao State University (MSU), and the National Power Corporation (NPC). However, inherent sensitivities and community dynamics around land in Marawi were heightened due to the clearing of physical boundary markers that are difficult to reestablish in view of the lack of technical surveys and overlapping claims in landholdings. Without a clear process and platform for addressing these issues, tensions ran high within and among families, including the clans of prominent leaders. This created dynamics absent in the three other RUMP municipalities which, if unmitigated or further fueled, could pose substantial risks to the project in terms of exacerbating grievances and triggering conflicts as well as potentially blocking the conduct of any IAP engagement and analysis altogether. 51. In response to these sensitivities and upon consultation with the Marawi Mayor, a modified RUMP process was devised as a form of risk management. The adjusted process focused on consolidating existing geospatial information, creating a total of 10 maps of Marawi City visualizing overlapping land claims and land-related policies affecting land resolution processes. Instead of community workshops, normally central to the RUMP methodology, the project scaled down consultations, holding small group meetings to maintain the participatory aspect. Spatial analysis of these datasets informed the development of a document outlining a proposed stepwise plan, a methodical process of claim validation and conflict resolution. The maps and the proposed stepwise plan were presented and shared with the Marawi LGU to inform its planning process. A presentation was sought with the BARMM’s Ministry of Human Settlements and Development, which serves as the co-chair, along with Marawi City LGU, of the TFBM Land Dispute Resolution Committee, but was not obtained within the project period. As such, the more public-access aspect of the project was effectively curtailed by these process changes. The outputs from the modified Marawi RUMP process, as well as other pre-project IAP activities conducted with Bank support, remain embargoed, even for residents who had contributed to these consultations and small group discussions. Objective 2: Strengthen capacity of multiple stakeholders in the BARMM for participatory, inclusive, and conflict- sensitive resource-based planning and management 52. Component 1: CA. IAP’s partnerships with the three Mindanao-based academic institutions were an extended platform for popularizing and encouraging local use of CA data. NDU and WMSU are long-term partners of IAP and the CA platform, while DC signed its first memorandum of agreement (MOA) for CA under this project but is involved in other IAP activities related to Marawi’s rehabilitation and reconstruction and restorative justice, given its status as a private institution displaced by the destruction of the MAA. 53. The short duration of the project and pandemic limitations precluded the collection and encoding of Philippine National Police (PNP) data from the academic partners’ terms of reference (ToR), which was done in earlier CA iterations by NDU and WMSU, and briefly, the Mindanao State University Iligan Institute of Technology’s Institute functions, and the DILG has transitioned to the MILG. Page | 15 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for BARMM (P173706) for Peace and Development in Mindanao. 54. Instead, the partners clarified their intended policy agenda for using CA data. WMSU is developing a graduate program on peace studies under its Institute of Peace, which is supported by a long-standing partnership with IAP to promote peace education, including those targeted for the security sector. IAP co-developed an online curriculum on restorative justice with DC geared toward the post-Marawi landscape. NDU is exploring research on local economies and conflict. In the meantime, NDU has been effective in outreach and advocacy through Alerto!Bangsamoro, a show on the Cotabato-based radio station DXMS, to highlight current data and analyses on conflict issues in the BARMM. The show runs daily on weekdays and is continuing post-project given its high listenership and viewership. NDU also hosted a webinar on conflict analysis and the use of CA data among NDU’s graduate students and faculty, as well as BARMM personnel, including representatives from the Ministry of Public Order and Safety (MPOS) and the Office of the Chief Minister. Appetite for additional technical training and outreach is high among local academic and development institutions in Cotabato City and can be a potent component of future project iterations. 55. As in previous years, WMSU and NDU facilitated MSVG meetings, but localized lockdowns substantially limited activities. NDU had originally intended to run four MSVGs in Maguindanao but implemented only one during the project period. Similarly, WMSU conducted only one MSVG in nearby Basilan; visits to Sulu and Tawi-Tawi had been restricted during the project period because of strict quarantines in Zamboanga City. In Lanao del Sur, the three provincial MSVGs were facilitated by the ERN, which in the province is led by local disaster risk reduction officers from 39 municipalities around Lake Lanao. 56. Component 2: RUMP. The project trained a total of 52 (versus the 21 end target) LGU officials from Kapai, Bubong, Ditsaan Ramain, Marawi City, and the provincial government of Lanao del Sur. Around 44 percent (23 personnel) were nontechnical officials and decision-makers; 56 percent (29 persons) were technical officers. For Kapai, Bubong, and Ditsaan-Ramain, this included members of the RUMP technical working groups (TWGs) tasked to implement the project. The RUMP TWGs were comprised of 12 officials for each of the municipalities (for a total of 36 personnel) coming from their legislative, legal, social welfare, gender and development, engineering, environment, tourism, arbitration and reconciliation, engineering and legal offices/departments. Capacity enhancement on GIS, data management, and map literacy was demand-driven and designed based on a training needs assessment (TNA) that established that participants only had basic knowledge on GIS technology before the project. Technical officials could only draw shapes and nontechnical officials could not interpret and analyze maps. 57. The post-project assessment showed marked improvements. All of the 29 technical participants from the engineering, assessors, and planning offices reported an increase in knowledge and actual hands-on experience on GIS technology, particularly on the use of methods and techniques in geospatial analysis. All of the 23 nontechnical participants reported an increase in ability to interpret and analyze maps. Trained officials from the three LGUs led the MSVGs; 94 percent reported enhanced skills on facilitation, documentation, and geospatial presentation. Of the 29 technical participants, 62 percent applied their skills on GIS technology through a MILG workshop on updating of local development and infrastructure plans. Representatives from Kapai, Bubong, and Ditsaan-Ramain expressed interest in expanding the applications of RUMP and GIS training to other issues, beginning with the completion of their CLUPs. One municipality shared that it had been using GIS skills learned during the project to complete its tax mapping and collect household-level data for development decisionmaking Page | 16 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for BARMM (P173706) as a precursor to the government-mandated Community Based Monitoring System . 58. A total of 14 briefings on RUMP and land-related issues integrating CA data were conducted among the mayors of Kapai, Ditsaan-Ramain, Bubong, and Marawi City; Lanao del Sur Governor Mamintal Adiong and heads of provincial offices on mining, solid waste management, Task Force Khalifa, and members of Provincial Land Use Committee; Department of Agrarian Reform (DAR) regional director; IP leaders in South Upi; and members of BARMM offices such as the Rapid Emergency Action on Disaster Incidence (READI), Ministry of Agriculture Fisheries and Agrarian Reform (MAFAR), Ministry of Environment, Natural Resources and Energy (MENRE), MPOS, and MILG. At the time of project implementation, the Lanao del Sur provincial government was finalizing its Provincial Development and Physical Framework Plan (PDPFP), the overall spatial strategy of the province until 2040 and the first of the BARMM’s five official provinces to update since the BARMM transition. Representatives identified the RUMP outputs and process as an opportunity to deepen and operationalize the elements of the plan at the municipal and barangay levels. C. Achievement of PDO (Efficiency): High 59. Efficiency is assessed to be high as IAP converted modest grant resources within five months into results perceived by stakeholders as value for money. The project enjoyed the stability of continuing support for long- term Bank-supported initiatives, while being short enough to have had a single task team leader (TTL) from preparation to project closing. 60. Audited financial statements submitted by IAP to the Bank in May 2021 show that actual project expenses incurred were within the project’s budgeted expenditures notwithstanding the additional logistical and resource requirements of working within a COVD-19 context, particularly extensive PCR (polymerase chain reaction) testing and the use of personal protective equipment in order to conduct face-to-face workshops within a secure “bubble.� The project was implemented on time despite these limitations and challenges. Overall Outcome Rating 61. The overall outcome rating of the project is satisfactory. In arriving at an overall outcome rating, it is reiterated that (a) the PDO is highly relevant to the current Country Partnership Framework and client requirements; (b) project efficacy is rated as substantial, and iii) efficiency is high. This is consistent with project ratings during the second virtual implementation support mission (ISM) after project closure in April 2021. Page | 17 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for BARMM (P173706) Other Outcomes and Impacts 62. Gender impacts can be considered for both CA and RUMP. Of the 362 community representatives included in multistakeholder workshops and the 51 LGU representatives trained, 45 percent and 25 percent, respectively, were women. This can help close gaps in representation and participation considering that technical issues such as resource management and geospatial skills are often perceived as the purview of men. While not explicitly included in the project design, gender inclusion is important as women and girls in the BARMM are disproportionately affected by conflicts, especially in relation to land, and are often disenfranchised by religious and customary practices related to land ownership, use, and succession. An ongoing thread of analysis by IAP using the CA dataset is exploring longitudinal patterns of gender-based violence, which will be deepened further in a follow-on project. 63. Institutional strengthening was an integral part of project design. Outcomes are discussed under section IIB. RUMP, in particular, was shown to be an effective entry point for engagement with LGUs. It can be leveraged for additional conversations and capacity building related to conflict and resource management and crisis response, including activities related to COVID-19 management and mitigation. 64. Mobilizing private sector financing is not applicable, although the three local governments expressed intent to use RUMP data for decision-making related to agribusiness investment, including inviting private sector investment. This point will be highly relevant to any subsequent phases of Bank and IFC operations in Mindanao around agriculture, infrastructure, and land parcelization. 65. Poverty reduction and shared prosperity. Managing resource conflicts and supporting the building blocks of tenurial stability is a prerequisite for radically reducing poverty and increasing shared prosperity in the BARMM. III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME A. Key Factors during Preparation, Design, and Quality at Entry 66. Project preparation benefited from being a continuation of existing activities implemented by IAP and supported by the Bank for the better part of the last decade in the BARMM. The project had a realistic PDO that was well-calibrated to political realities, the limits set by the pandemic, and the closure of the MTF in March 2021. 67. The project was originally envisioned to be a 12-month grant, then an eight-month grant that was further reduced to five months due to the time required to complete requirements of the ESF and secure an endorsement letter from the Department of Finance (DOF). This created a funding gap for CA operations and forced IAP to substantially compress activities, especially toward the project’s last three months. While IAP and CA were supported by the Bank for the better part of the last decade, this partnership was previously administered through a direct contract and not as a grant. As such, IAP had to prepare the full risk assessment and summary, ESF, Stakeholder Engagement Plan (SEP), and an Environmental and Social Commitment Plan (ESCP) despite the relatively modest size of the grant. Page | 18 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for BARMM (P173706) 68. Nevertheless, project readiness was clear given IAP’s deep experience and track record in the sector. As an international peacebuilding organization, IAP has been active in the Philippine peace processes since 1991 and contributed to the negotiations that led to the signing of the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro in 2014, passage of the Bangsamoro Organic Law in 2018, and the law’s popular ratification in 2019. IAP has been implementing CA and the World Bank-supported Bangsamoro Conflict Monitoring System (BCMS) component for the last few years. A total of total 25 RUMPs were completed in 2018 with World Bank support in six LGUs in the BARMM and Southern and Eastern Mindanao, including Saguiaran, Piagapo, and Marantao, all in Lanao del Sur. With this previous experience, existing systems, and social capital among an extensive network of local and national partners, the shortened implementation timeframe did not hinder the timely delivery of project results. In Lanao del Sur, this was aided by the project’s synergies with other tracks of work implemented by IAP with other sources of funding, particularly the CEMS, and technical assistance activities related to Marawi rehabilitation and reconstruction. DC, for example, is a member of the Marawi Reconstruction Conflict Watch, a citizen group monitoring and accompanying the rehabilitation process with secretariat support from IAP. 69. Overall project risk was rated substantial at the time of project preparation and related to four issues: (a) the COVID-19 situation and the short implementation period; (b) data management systems and security; (c) participation and process; and (d) escalation of violent conflicts. The project team made every effort to mitigate these risks through IAP’s preparation of a detailed playbook that will allow the project to proceed under most COVID-19-related circumstances with the exception of a full lockdown. IAP’s CA validation and data security protocols have been historically robust, and so residual risks were deemed low. IAP also used the project start delay to prepare for implementation, including extensive social preparation and the drafting of a detailed Project Operation Manual, ensuring all tools were in place at appraisal. As a peacebuilding process, the project in and of itself mitigates the risk of escalating conflict by providing a safe space for dialogue and articulating different views. Previous World Bank-supported consultations related to Marawi reconstruction and the Bangsamoro peace process as a whole highlight the importance of two-way platforms for information and debate to manage tensions and support social cohesion. The parallel IAP interventions in the area, particularly the CEMS, also allow for close monitoring of rising tensions and early response capacity for local intermediaries to prevent or counter disputes. B. Key Factors during Implementation 70. Factors subject to implementing entities control. Beyond the technical soundness of CA and RUMP as tools and platforms, IAP’s ability to identify strategic opportunities and target users for their deployment was a major factor in securing buy-in, particularly from local and provincial government representatives, academic and civil society partners, and media. The robust analysis generated from the project fulfills needs not often provided elsewhere, let alone with the same consistency and scope. The aide memoire from the second ISM commended IAP’s commitment, innovative approaches, and dynamic revisions, which led to the successful implementation of the project. These included: (a) IAP’s ability to integrate COVID-19 health and social protocols and standards in all its activities and work around the social stigma and practical challenges presented by COVID-19; and (b) its strong network on the ground, knowledge of the context, and skillful adaption to contextual risks, which allowed IAP to effect conflict-sensitive and localized changes in project implementation. 71. A major factor in the project’s success is IAP’s contracting of respected senior Moro leaders as advisers, who are embedded in the local system and have the social standing and technical expertise to facilitate Page | 19 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for BARMM (P173706) implementation and troubleshoot roadblocks. As embedded liaisons, these individuals facilitated IAP’s work with municipal, provincial, and regional authorities through formal and informal channels and ensured access to data and decision-makers. 72. IAP ensured clear coordination and engagement with local stakeholders, including setting clear roles and responsibilities for the CA academic partners, and the members of the RUMP TWG. Despite some changes with implementing partners, particularly the appointment of a new president at WMSU, the subsequent changing of project leads at NDU and WMSU, and the lapsing of the previous CA Memorandum of Agreement with the Philippine National Police, strong relationships with local partners, including the Police Regional Office in the BARMM (PRO-BARMM) smoothed over any delays. 73. Factors subject to World Bank control. From preparation to closing, the project was led by a single task team leader. Issues for attention were addressed with candor during the ISMs and throughout the short five-month preparation period. The project also benefited from in-country specialists on procurement, financial management (FM), and safeguards. All FM and audit reports were unqualified and in accordance with all Bank requirements. 74. Factors outside control of implementing entities. The pandemic notwithstanding, the political context in the BARMM and post-crisis Marawi City is delicate. Tensions remain high and critical analysis can be easily misconstrued as a “peace spoiler� or trigger of conflict, particularly during the project implementation period when the trajectory of the BARMM transition and the proposed extension was uncertain. This curtails available space for engagement with local governments, BARMM ministries, and national bodies, such as the TFBM and Office of the Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process (OPAPP), and the attached peace process mechanisms. The project and IAP managed these factors by providing public data and analysis on-demand and adjusting the RUMP process as advised. While the Marawi maps and analysis were presented and turned over to the city government, the project cannot control if and how the analysis will be used by local and regional actors or the TFBM, whose continuing mandate is unclear after the change of administration in 2022. IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME A. Quality of Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E): High 75. M&E Design. Overall, the project’s implicit TOC was simple, with intermediate indicators linked to components underpinning their contribution to achieving the stated development objectives. While the PDO indicators and targets were kept modest given the limited implementation period, this was offset by how various aspects were captured through the intermediate indicators and external reporting. As a result, there is sufficient supporting outcome evidence. 76. M&E Implementation. The results framework adequately captured the project results and indicators were easy to track. These indicators were refined throughout the implementation period. One recommendation that was applied after the second ISM was for IAP to update the results matrix and its presentation of consolidated project results to include a separate column to show one clear number per results indicator that corresponds to the target value, as well as the completion date. Page | 20 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for BARMM (P173706) 77. The use of a training needs assessment and post-activity testing for RUMP particularly provides insights regarding improved geospatial and data management skills, as well as other “soft� skills such as facilitation, documentation, and presentation of map data. Overall, baseline data were adequate to track project progress, as reflected in progress reports and the ISM aide memoires. 78. M&E Utilization. Responsive M&E utilization, especially to ensure constant feedback and communication between IAP and the Bank team, was important given the very short runway for project completion. A good example was the decision to shift the Marawi RUMP process into the final modified form. As agreed in the second ISM, short results stories were also included in the project completion report to capture qualitative and strategic outcomes from the project. B. Environmental, Social, and Fiduciary Compliance 79. The project complied with grant covenants and applicable World Bank policies, including those related to FM, procurement, and social and environmental safeguards. Financial management 80. By project closing, FM performance was rated satisfactory. Overall, FM arrangements were in place and generally complied with, and implementation is considered acceptable. Interim Financial Reports (IFRs) were submitted on time. The audit report covering the whole implementation period reflected unmodified (clean) opinion and reported no significant issues. The audited financial report states that US$849,929 of the US$850,000 project funds had been disbursed at project closing. 81. Procurement was rated satisfactory for both review periods. Minor procurement delays resulted from pandemic restrictions but were negligible. The project team also expressed some challenges with the use of the Systematic Tracking of Exchanges in Procurement (STEP) system, especially when operating in areas with bad internet coverage. These issues were resolved with adjustments and support from the Bank team. Environmental and social standards 82. The project did not pose large-scale social and environmental risks; risks were assessed as low during project preparation. Both ISMs rated ESF performance as satisfactory. According to project documentation and based on interviews with project partners in the BARMM, the project fulfilled all environmental and social standards requirements and complied fully with the activities and deliverables stated in the Environmental and Social Commitment Plan and the Stakeholder Engagement Plan, both of which are publicly available on the CA to the relevant local stakeholders. 83. Notable ESF-related measures implemented under the project include the design and strict observance of COVID-19-related protocols to ensure the health and safety of all project staff and participants; installation and activation of the grievance redress mechanism; and official designation and orientation of the project team and consultants on the Environmental and Social Commitment Plan. Review missions lauded the systematic effort of the project to implement the Stakeholder Engagement Plan, Page | 21 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for BARMM (P173706) which resulted in participation of a broad range of marginalized stakeholders including women, senior citizens, poor farmers, and urban poor aside from the government and Civil Society Organization representatives. Throughout the grant implementation, IAP was guided by the risk assessment and the identified mitigation measures. C. Bank Performance Overall Bank performance: Satisfactory 84. Based on the justifications of both quality at entry and quality of supervision, the overall Bank performance rating is satisfactory. 85. Performance at Appraisal. Quality of entry is considered satisfactory. While built on existing activities, the project was designed through close collaboration between the Bank and IAP. The task team ably identified and facilitated design adjustments to ensure that the project can realistically achieve planned development outcomes while managing risks. 86. With the project financed by the MTF, the setup as well as participation in ISMs by representatives from Australia, Canada, the European Union, and Spain’s Agency for International Development Cooperation (AECID) supported information sharing and collaboration with donors. This is particularly relevant with Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade -Australia financing of parallel IAP activities outside the project. Representatives from Office of the Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process and the Department of Finance were also present to ensure consistency with national government goals. 87. Bank Performance at Supervision. Bank supervision is overall satisfactory despite restrictions preventing travel to Mindanao. Two ISMs were held virtually given COVID-19 restrictions. The first was on 8 February 2021. The second, originally scheduled in March 2021 ahead of project closing on 31 March 2021, was moved to 20–21 April 2021 given the very short implementation period. IAP was still busy implementing the project at the time, wrapping up the outputs from the series of RUMP activities, among others. The Bank team also assessed that given regular meetings between the ISMs, coordination and discussion done with IAP at that point were adequate, giving the Bank enough information regarding ongoing activities. 88. The project was rated satisfactory for both progress toward development objectives and implementation progress. A substantial limitation of the virtual ISM setup is that none of the invited subregional or local government representatives made it to the discussions even though majority of the activities were implemented at the municipal and provincial levels. Internet connectivity issues often prevent effective WebEx, Zoom or Teams use in the Lanao del Sur area. Future virtual ISMs, if any, should address this supervision gap. 89. The Task Team Leader and key technical specialists provided consistent remote support throughout the process with, as IAP and the partners noted, relative speed, responsiveness, and attention to detail. The Bank provided guidance and support to IAP with regards to Systematic Tracking of Exchanges in Procurement. Adjustments were made with the retirement and, shortly thereafter, untimely passing of Page | 22 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for BARMM (P173706) the team procurement specialist based in Manila due to COVID-19, although most of the institutional arrangements were by then in place. A new procurement specialist was assigned for cross-support from Indonesia toward the end of the project period. D. Risk to Development Outcome 90. The overall risk to the sustainability of the development outcome is assessed as substantial. While CA has achieved the goal of completing a 10-year panel dataset of conflict incidents—a major contribution to evidence-based peace policy in the region—the cost of maintaining the system and collecting, encoding, and analyzing data is high. Realistically, this will require constant infusions of donor funding not only for IAP as the holding institution but also for academic partners and local stakeholders regardless of appreciation and personal and institutional commitment. Efforts to strengthen the institutional partners’ capacity to use and disseminate CA data are commendable but are limited by project-based frameworks and timelines. Subsequent activities need to redouble efforts on encouraging local ownership of the system and its use and upkeep. The likelihood of accessing government resources to support CA activities is low given the current shortfall in public resources for normalization and other needs at the national and regional levels, not to mention technical and capacity requirements that may not be present in government institutions. Also, there is consensus across major CA stakeholders that a truly useful conflict monitoring and analysis platform must remain independent; otherwise, questions of data integrity may arise should this be funded or managed by state actors. Discussions with IAP highlight previous and ongoing attempts and brainstorming with potential platform-holders, including the Social Weather Stations or a national risk management nongovernmental organization (NGO), or possibly a public university that can bring technical skills, credibility, and basic resources that can keep the project running during gaps in donor support. However, these options will also run into the same funding and sustainability questions IAP currently faces, although this assumes that more local ownership can significantly reduce current data collection and coding costs. 91. Section II.B discusses positive evidence that partner LGUs in Kapai, Bubong and, Ditsaan-Ramain will be leveraging RUMP outputs and training in the coming months and years. As with most capacity-building efforts with local government personnel, the danger of turnover exists, especially with the May 2022 elections. This is mitigated by the Memorandum of Agreement signed between IAP and the three LGUs and the province of Lanao del Sur as well as steps being taken by the three municipalities to use the RUMP maps to update their CLUPs. Engagement at the regional level with the BARMM ministries is currently informal or exploratory; however, there is acknowledgment of CA as the closest baseline source for robust conflict data and analysis. V. LESSONS LEARNED AND RECOMMENDATIONS 92. Generally, the project is an example of effective technical assistance provision in conflict-vulnerable communities despite changing and highly volatile contexts, including during a pandemic. Several lessons can be drawn from the project experience. • Simplicity and practicality in design, built on a long-existing set of activities run by a strong implementing partner, allowed the project to be completed in an abbreviated time period. The Page | 23 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for BARMM (P173706) longer gestation period also allowed the project to be informed by detailed plans, operations guides, and templates, including a robust set of COVID-19 protocols. • Sensitivity to local context, particularly in conflict areas, is key . This can be seen in multiple ways, from the selection of implementing partners, to ensuring a participatory dialogue process, to the process adjustments made for the Marawi City RUMP, as well as tailoring the pandemic “bubble� setup to address very real social stigma in the BARMM around PCR testing, masking, social distancing, and other health protocols. While initially difficult for participants, local partners expressed appreciation for the measures taken that allowed the project to proceed. This was largely made possible by IAP’s deft selection of local Bangsamoro/Maranao consultants and liaisons, who helped bridge these nuances and brought high levels of commitment and expertise to the table. • Ensuring project buy-in and uptake requires flexibility and an ability to respond to specific needs of target audiences. While the CA and RUMP tools and platforms are generally interoperable, effective dissemination will take multiple forms, ranging from radio (through Alerto!Bangsamoro) and easily shareable social media materials, to bespoke briefings for lawmakers, local chief executives, civil society networks, and media outlets. The Alerto!Bangsamoro’s simultaneous use of local radio and Facebook broadcasts helped showcase issues in a way that is accessible to stakeholders in Cotabato/Maguindanao and at the national level. • Work with LGUs will be increasingly important at this stage of the Bangsamoro peace process. This is situated not only in the ongoing transition to the formal Bangsamoro Parliament and the overall normalization agenda, but also the general trajectory of fiscal devolution in the Philippines with the Mandanas ruling. While previous peacebuilding investments by the Bank and other donors have generally focused on nonstate actors such as the MILF and the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF), policy reforms, particularly on land and resource management, will be better grounded with technical investments at the regional level as well as the provincial and municipal levels. This is supported by previous World Bank experience related to community-driven development (cf. the ARMM Social Fund) as well as localized health financing, which point to the need for greater LGU support. Based on the ICR discussions with local chief executives, there will be greater need for CA and RUMP data beyond purely peace process monitoring as LGUs navigate concerns related to the nexus of conflict and land and resource management, energy, gender, and climate change. Strengthening the MSVGs and their interface with municipal and provincial peace and order councils should also be a priority for future work not only with LGUs but also with security sector representatives on the ground. 93. Recommendations: • Extend project durations and explore additional options to avoid funding gaps, particularly for long- term projects such as CA. Longer-term, multiyear funding platforms are highly recommended. In subsequent funding cycles, additional efforts regarding local institutionalization for sustainability will be paramount. Given the acknowledged utility of the CA platform to bilateral and multilateral donors working in Mindanao, options to pool funding for its upkeep and sustainability should also be explored. However, any long-term funding commitments should be conditional on IAP or any future implementing partners to explore ways of reducing costs without compromising quality or providing Page | 24 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for BARMM (P173706) a clear justification for why this cannot be done. This discussion is less about efficiency and more toward ensuring the possible continuation of this work by local institutions using a more economically sustainable model. • Although these were precluded by the short project period, local partners and participants highlighted the need for (a) horizontal integration between municipalities involved in RUMP and (b) cross- regional information sharing opportunities between academic partners involved in CA. o Horizontal cross-municipal integration and vertical coordination and decision-making will be required to resolve several of the land and resource conflicts identified by RUMP. While the project kickstarted the process of fixing barangay boundaries, intermunicipal boundary conflicts will need to be raised at the provincial and regional levels, and even national government level, through the intergovernmental relations body (IGRB) between central powers and the BTA. o Vertical integration refers to boundary conflicts with non-BARMM areas (for example, Iligan City) and thornier policy issues related to the correction and completion of the regional cadastre, which has major implications for Internal Revenue Allotment computation, as well as resource management problems for LGUs around the Lake Lanao watershed. While uptake of Marawi rehabilitation analysis is outside the project’s control, the political transition in 2022 may open opportunities for renewed dialogue and localized decision-making. • IAP conflict data and analysis should be opened up for use beyond peace process monitoring into more thematic applications. This is reflected in emerging conversations between IAP and the various World Bank teams managing ongoing or pipeline projects in the BARMM, which IAP has noted as a useful cross-learning opportunity. As of writing, the Bank’s range of activities in Mindanao covers three main areas: (a) coverage through mainly-IBRD active and pipeline national projects on agriculture/rural infrastructure, social protection, education, health, rural electrification, and community-driven development; (b) management of the Bangsamoro Normalization Trust Fund for the rehabilitation, reconstruction, and development of Bangsamoro communities with special regard to the decommissioned MILF combatants and vulnerable sectors; and (c) technical assistance for the BTA on issues related to public financial management, financial inclusion and Islamic finance, nutrition, education, women’s economic empowerment, and, potentially, the rehabilitation of the Agus Hydroelectric Power Plant in Lanao del Sur. Opportunities to establish or strengthen healthy horizontal linkages and synergies between IAP and the CA and RUMP technology and other international and local initiatives working in the space should be encouraged as practicable. . Page | 25 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for BARMM (P173706) ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS A. RESULTS INDICATORS A.1 PDO Indicators Objective/Outcome: Strengthen capacity of multiple stakeholders in the BARMM for participatory, inclusive, and conflict-sensitive resource-based planning and management and strengthen conflict-related data and analytica Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Increase in organizational and Percentage 50.00 50.00 100.00 institutional capacity of local government representatives for 15-Jul-2020 15-Jul-2020 31-Mar-2021 participatory, inclusive and conflict-sensitive planning processes. Comments (achievements against targets): Trained a total of 52 (versus the 21 end target) LGU officials from local chief executive, planning, legislative, legal, social welfare, gender and development, engineering, environment, tourism, arbitration and reconciliation, engineering and legal offices/departments of Kapai, Bubong, Ditsaan Ramain, Marawi city, and the Lanao del Sur provincial government on participatory, inclusive, and conflict-sensitive planning processes. 100% of the 29 technical participants from engineering, assessors, and planning offices reported an increase in knowledge and actual hands-on experience on GIS technology, particularly on the use of methods and techniques in geospatial analysis. 100% of the 23 nontechnical participants reported an increase in ability to interpret and analyze maps. 94% of participants reported enhanced skills on workshop facilitation and documentation as demonstrated through the conduct of RUMP and validation Page 26 of 38 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for BARMM (P173706) workshops. 62% of the 29 technical participants were able to apply their skills on GIS technology as demonstrated in their participation in a recent workshop held by the MILG to update their local development and infrastructure development plans. Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Increase access to and use of Number 0.00 1.00 1.00 conflict data and analysis generated by the RUMP and 01-Jul-2020 15-Jul-2020 25-Jan-2021 Conflict Alert by key stakeholders in the BARMM. Conflict Alert annual reports Number 0.00 800.00 716.00 downloaded from website 01-Jul-2020 15-Jul-2020 25-Jan-2021 Informative/ instructional Number 0.00 15.00 48.00 videos, infographics and other multimedia materials 01-Jul-2020 15-Jul-2020 25-Jan-2021 showcasing results of analytical and thematic reports Stakeholder specific briefings Number 0.00 10.00 16.00 for national and local agencies, policy-makers, local 01-Jul-2020 15-Jul-2020 25-Jan-2021 governments, diplomatic Page 27 of 38 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for BARMM (P173706) community, international and national media and academia to inform analysis and decision ma Comments (achievements against targets): Conflict Alert: CA 2020 report launched with 289 attendees, a 140% increase from 121 attendees in the CA 2019 report launch. 1 press briefing for the CA 2020 report conducted and attended by 30 members of the press, a 58% increase from those who attended in 2019. Total of 26 media articles on the CA 2020 report launch/CA data as of 21 April 2021. CA 2020 report made available to 29,577 unique website visitors and 2,793 registered users; to 14,728 Facebook followers, 1,145 Twitter followers, and 205 subscribers of Everyday Alert News digest. 886 printed copies of CA 2020 reports distributed to heads of offices of government agencies, BARMM ministries, LGUs, CSOs, academe, embassies and donor agencies, UN offices, and the private sector as of 19 April 2021. The pilot episode of Alerto! Bangsamoro through DXMS Radyo Bida Cotabato City garnered 800 views on Facebook Live, higher than the average 300 views of the radio station’s other news programs. The program will feature CA and RUMP data as well as Alert’s othe r research on peace and conflict. RUMP: 3 PRUAs completed and turned over to the municipalities of Kapai, Bubong, and Ditsaan Ramain. The data and maps of PRUAs can be utilized to Inform executive decisions, local planning and development processes, local ordinances and legislation. A.2 Intermediate Results Indicators Component: Component 1: Conflict Monitoring System – Conflict Alert Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Conflict incidents have been Months 0.00 9.00 12.00 gathered, encoded and analyzed during project 15-Jul-2020 15-Jul-2021 05-Feb-2021 implementation period Page 28 of 38 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for BARMM (P173706) Comments (achievements against targets): Total of 2,323 conflict incidents for January–December 2020 covering BARMM provinces, including Isabela City encoded. Quality control measures completed. 5 multistakeholder validation meetings conducted in Maguindanao, Lanao del Sur, and Basilan. Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Thematic report generated on Number 0.00 1.00 8.00 COVID19 violent conflict based on newly gathered Conflict 15-Jul-2020 15-Jul-2020 31-Mar-2021 Alert data Comments (achievements against targets): Compendium of 7 thematic briefs produced and featured in the CA 2020 Report as discussion boxes, zeroing in on key issues and trends in the 2011–2019 dataset. 1 thematic brief on COVID-19 produced, analyzing the impact of the pandemic to the conflict dynamics in the Bangsamoro. Component: Component 2: Strengthening Resource Use and Management Planning Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Participatory and inclusive Number 9.00 25.00 34.00 workshops conducted with community stakeholders 15-Jul-2020 15-Jul-2020 26-Mar-2021 Comments (achievements against targets): Page 29 of 38 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for BARMM (P173706) Total of 34 workshops conducted, including preparatory workshops among TWG, RUMP, GIS, validation and data management. 362 community representatives participated in RUMP and validation workshops in Kapai, Bubong, and Ditsaan Ramain, 45% of whom were women. Other sectors represented, including farmers, fisherfolk, youth, local vendors, the elderly, and religious leaders such as imams. Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Thematic maps developed by Number 30.00 70.00 303.00 stakeholders in the RUMP process 01-Jan-2019 15-Jul-2020 31-Mar-2021 Comments (achievements against targets): 303 thematic maps produced. Breakdown: - 293 maps produced for Kapai, Bubong, and Ditsaan Ramain, including RUMP, land use and cover, administrative, overlapping and unclaimed, conflict, suitability, geohazard, service areas, road networks, water features, environmental protection, mining and timber license agreement, barangay maps on land use and RUMP, and barangays geohazard maps. - 10 maps produced for Marawi, including parcellary, hazard, administrative boundaries, overlapping claims and conflict. Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion LGU officials trained on Number 6.00 21.00 52.00 techniques for participatory, inclusive, and conflict-sensitive 01-Jan-2019 15-Jul-2020 31-Mar-2021 planning processes Comments (achievements against targets): A total of 52 officials and technical staff from the 4 LGUs trained on participatory, inclusive, and conflict-sensitive planning processes covering the following: a. RUMP process and methodology, particularly in mapping resources, land and resource-based conflicts, developing strategies for resource use and Page 30 of 38 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for BARMM (P173706) participatory and inclusive planning and dialogue processes; including on facilitation and documentation b. Geoprocessing of secondary maps for Marawi LGU to consolidate parcellary and secondary data and provide a visual representation of the gravity of overlapping land claims in the municipality c. GIS technology for participants from Kapai, Bubong, Disaan Ramain, Marawi, and the provincial government of Lanao del Sur d. Data management where participants learned basic concepts of statistics and its application on local planning processes Component: Component 3: Dissemination for Increased Demand and Usage of Available Data Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Conflict Alert Annual Report Number 0.00 1.00 1.00 2020 launched and disseminated 15-Jul-2020 15-Jul-2020 31-Mar-2021 Comments (achievements against targets): Online launch and dissemination of the CA 2020 Report completed according to strategic communications plan. Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Online information webpage Number 0.00 1.00 1.00 established within the existing Conflict Alert website 15-Jul-2020 15-Jul-2020 19-Apr-2021 Comments (achievements against targets): Indicator Name Unit of Baseline Original Target Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Page 31 of 38 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for BARMM (P173706) Measure Target Completion Thematic briefings provided to Number 0.00 6.00 0.00 14.00 LGUs and BARMM/BTA 15-Jul-2020 15-Jul-2020 31-Mar-2021 Comments (achievements against targets): 14 briefings on CA and RUMP methodologies, land issues, tenurial arrangements, and overlapping claims conducted among mayors of Kapai, Ditsaan- Ramain, Bubong and Marawi City; Lanao del Sur Governor Mamintal Adiong and heads of provincial offices on mining, solid waste management, Task Force Khalifa, and members of Provincial Land Use Council; DAR regional director; IP leaders in South Upi; and members of BARMM ministries (BARMM- READI, MAFAR, MENRE, MPOS and MILG). Page 32 of 38 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for BARMM (P173706) B. ORGANIZATION OF THE ASSESSMENT OF THE PDO Objective/Outcome 1 Strengthen capacity of multiple stakeholders in the BARMM for participatory, inclusive, and conflict-sensitive resource-based planning and management 1. Increase in organizational and institutional capacity of local government representatives for participatory, inclusive, and conflict-sensitive planning processes. Outcome Indicators 2. Increase access to and use of conflict data and analysis generated by the RUMP and CA by key stakeholders in the BARMM 1. Participatory and inclusive workshops conducted with community stakeholders 2. Thematic maps developed by stakeholders in the RUMP Intermediate Results Indicators process 3. LGU officials trained on techniques for participatory, inclusive, and conflict-sensitive planning processes 4. Thematic briefings provided to LGUs and BARMM/BTA 1. 52 LGU officials from local chief executive, planning, legislative, legal, social welfare, gender and development, engineering, environment, tourism, arbitration and reconciliation, engineering and legal in LGUs (Kapai, Bubong, Ditsaan Ramain, Marawi city, and the Lanao del Sur provincial government) trained on participatory, inclusive, Key Outputs by Component and conflict-sensitive planning processes (linked to the achievement of the 2. 303 thematic maps Objective/Outcome 1) 3. 34 workshops conducted, including preparatory workshops among TWG, RUMP, GIS, validation and data management 4. 3 Resource Usage Plans completed and turned over to the municipalities of Kapai, Bubong, and Ditsaan Ramain 5. 14 briefings on CA and RUMP methodologies, land issues, tenurial arrangements, and overlapping claims conducted Objective/Outcome 2 Strengthen conflict-related data and analytical foundations for government and community decision-making. 1. Increase access to and use of conflict data and analysis generated by the RUMP and CA by key stakeholders in the BARMM 2. CA annual reports downloaded from website 3. Informative/instructional videos, infographics, and other Outcome Indicators multimedia materials showcasing results of analytical and thematic reports 4. Online information webpage established within the existing CA website 5. Thematic briefings provided to LGUs and BARMM/BTA Page 33 of 38 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for BARMM (P173706) 1. Conflict incidents gathered, encoded, and analyzed during the project implementation period Intermediate Results Indicators 2. Thematic report generated on COVID-19-related violent conflict based on newly gathered CA data 3. CA Annual Report 2020 launched and disseminated 1. 2,323 conflict incidents for January – December 2020 encoded 2. 1 Conflict Alert 2020 report launched 3. 1 press briefing for the CA 2020 report conducted 4. 886 printed copies of CA 2020 reports distributed to heads of offices of government agencies, BARMM ministries, LGUs, CSOs, academe, embassies and donor agencies, United Nations offices, and the private sector as of 19 April 2021 5. 1 pilot episode of Alerto! Bangsamoro aired through DXMS Radyo Bida Cotabato City 6. Report downloaded 716 times 7. 2 videos on key highlights of the report and a scoping video on violent extremism produced Key Outputs by Component 8. 2 social media cards promoting the CA 2020 report created (linked to the achievement of the 9. 14 infographics and 14 Tweet threads on key highlights and Objective/Outcome 2) findings of CA 2020 report and its thematic boxes published 10. 16 maps on multicausality of clan feuding and land feuding, deaths and incidents due to violent extremism, hotspots of illegal drugs, and the municipality of South Upi and MILF camps developed 11. 16 briefings for officials of BARMM’s MPOS, legislators including Senator Miguel Zubiri and members of the House of Representatives conducted 12. 5 multistakeholder validation meetings conducted 13. Compendium of 7 thematic briefs completed 14. 1 thematic brief on COVID-19 released 15. Information posted on CA website 16. 14 briefings conducted on CA and RUMP methodologies, land issues, tenurial arrangements, and overlapping claims . . Page 34 of 38 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for BARMM (P173706) ANNEX 2. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT Amount at Actual at Project Percentage of Components Approval Closing (US$M)10 Approval (US$M) (US$M) Conflict Monitoring System – Conflict 0.306 0.295 96% Alert Strengthening Resource Use and 0.252 0.281 112% Management Planning Dissemination for Increased Demand 0.085 0.064 75% and Usage of Available Data Project Management and Reporting 0.151 0.154 102% Overhead (7%) 0.056 0.056 100% Total 0.850 0.850 100% 10 On 23 February, 2021, the Bank gave its no objection to realignment of funds from components 1 and 3 to component 2. This was to cover increases in cost under component 2, in particular related to expenditures associated with COVID-19 health and safety protocols, including RT-PCR tests and logistical requirements of a bubble environment used for all community workshops conducted. Page 35 of 38 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for BARMM (P173706) . ANNEX 3. RECIPIENT, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS 15 December 2021 Ms. Ditte Fallesen Senior Social Development Specialist The World Bank Taguig City Re: Implementation Completion and Results Report (ICR) – Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for BARMM (Grant No. TF0B3783) Dear Ditte, International Alert Philippines extends its appreciation to the World Bank for its long-standing support to the conflict monitoring system since 2013 and for expanding its support to the urgent issue of land and resource management, particularly in strengthening the capacity of local governments for local participatory processes that help address key drivers of violence and promote inclusion. Land conflicts, in particular, have a high propensity to combine with other violent conflict causes such as identity and political issues, and its resolution both in policy and practice is a key aspect towards sustained peace and development of the Bangsamoro transition. Alert wishes to express its concurrence with the ICR prepared by the World Bank for the project Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for BARMM. We are pleased that the ICR emphasized the relevance of the project and that “At present, Conflict Alert is the first and remains the primary public dataset on armed violence in Mindanao, while RUMP outputs respond to the dearth of high-quality, participatory, and locally generated and owned spatial data and resource-management plans in BARMM.� We also appreciate that the report identified elements that contributed to the achievement of project objectives and emphasized how Alert exceeded implementation targets against a difficult project implementation context of a global public health emergency, the lockdowns imposed by the national and local governments, and the abbreviated five-month window for implementation. Indeed, integral to this success is the mutual trust between Alert, partners, and local governments formed through our long-standing presence in the locality, the integrity of our work, and the deep partnerships maintained through the years. It is important to note that the ICR highlighted the impact of Conflict Alert and RUMP in improving women’s participation in local processes and helping address the gap in a comprehensive analysis of longitudinal patterns of gender-based violence. Moreover, of the inter-operability of the RUMP process Page 36 of 38 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for BARMM (P173706) and Conflict Alert system across different purposes as demonstrated by local governments' use of the RUMP results and overlaying conflict data to inform a calibrated process of addressing land-related issues and the creation of agricultural development and geo-hazard mitigation plans. Finally, we are glad that the ICR captured the consensus across stakeholders of the critical importance of maintaining the independence of the conflict monitoring system to ensure the integrity of data and analysis. Therefore, we support the ICR’s recommendation for longer-term, multi-year funding to address funding gaps and promote the use of conflict data and analysis to various thematic applications that go beyond peace process monitoring. The project's success is a tribute to the Alert implementation team's commitment, resourcefulness, agility, and the strong partnership, trust, and support accorded us by the World Bank and our local partners. Sincerely, Nikki Philline de la Rosa Country Director Page 37 of 38 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for BARMM (P173706) ANNEX 4. Sample data and graphs from Conflict Alert 2020 report 2019 marks the second year of relative stability in Conflict incidence by year the region following the 2017 Marawi siege. On the same year, both the political and normalization components of the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro were in full swing. First with the successful conduct of the plebiscite that ratified Republic Act 11054 or the Bangsamoro Organic Law (BOL) and thereafter, the installation of the Bangsamoro Transition Authority led by the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). From August 2019 to March 2020, the MILF also decommissioned 12,000 of its combatants. Despite these positive developments, violent flashpoints developed in many pockets and corners of the Bangsamoro in 2019, some resulting from the transitions that have happened and others due to previous conflicts or government policies. By 2019, a total of 2,655 violent conflict incidents were monitored in the five Bangsamoro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) provinces as well as the cities of Cotabato and Isabela. The number of clan feuds rose by Conflict incidents per province and year nearly 50 percent to 146, of which the highest concentrations were in Lanao del Sur that went up by 64 percent from 2018 and Maguindanao including the city of Cotabato with an increase of 22 percent. These feuds were fueled by personal and political grudges, and land conflicts among others. Specifically, in Maguindanao, most of the feuds were in municipalities where there is fierce competition over land and resources between the MILF and the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighter (BIFF) and against indigenous peoples. Page 38 of 38 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for BARMM (P173706) Single and multiple cause-conflict per year Singular causes of conflict incidents by year In terms of causes of violent incidents, multi-causal incidents accounted for 32 percent of the total number of incidents whose cause or causes could be determined, up from 30 percent in 2018. Single-cause incidents made up 50 percent, down from 54 percent. By 2019, shadow economy still occupies the top cause of violence in the Bangsamoro followed by identity issues, common crimes, political issues, governance and resource issues. Conflict incidents by province and year Incidence of violent conflicts at the provincial level varied significantly. Maguinanao recorded lower conflict incidence followed by Sulu and Basilan. These offset the increases in Lanao del Sur and Tawi Tawi provinces. Although Maguindanao still occupies the top spot as having the most incidence of violent conflict, at 1,137, this still is 20 percent less than 2018. Since 2017, Basilan and Sulu also posted a year-on-year decline in violent incidents, albeit Sulu relatively slower due to the resilient shadow economy issues and the active presence of the Abu Sayyaf terrorist group. Tawi-Tawi posted a 26 percent increase to 178 incidents due to the persistent and aggressive shadow economy. Violent extremism still persists in the region, however, there is a positive downward trend as incidents dropped by 26 percent to195 in 2019 from the previous year. There were less incidents involving the Abu Sayyaf in Sulu and Basilan and the BIFF in Maguindanao, while incidents involving the Maute Group in Lanao del Sur were steady at 21 in 2018 and 2019. Extremist violence has remained to be alarming if seen in terms of the number of people affected by it. In particular, it has affected people in Sulu more than residents of other provinces. Page 39 of 38 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring and Participatory Processes for BARMM (P173706) Violent extremism incidents and deaths per 100,000 persons Page 40 of 38