IMPACTS OF COVID-19 AND RECOVERY IN GEORGIA GEORGIA HIGH FREQUENCY SURVEY (GHFS) MAIN FINDINGS ROUND 5 CONTENTS I. Overview, Updates and Key Findings II. Monitoring the effects of COVID-19 in Georgia: Survey Methods III. Impact of COVID-19 on individuals and households: Main results • Prevalence of COVID-19 • COVID-19 Vaccine • Education and Childcare • Household Tasks • Employment • Income shocks • Inflation • Socioeconomic status I. Updates and Key Findings Overview • Four rounds of High-Frequency Phone surveys were carried out to understand the impact of COVID-19 in Georgia from December 2020 to June 2021. • After almost a year, a new round of High-Frequency Phone survey was carried out in March 2022 to further understand the direction of Georgia’s vaccine uptake and economic recovery from COVID 19 among other issues tracked in earlier rounds. • Three more rounds of surveys are under consideration to evaluate the progress of the pandemic, inflation and the economy. • The round 5 survey includes new questions on childcare, gender disparities in childcare and other household tasks, children missing school, and inflation. • The pandemic might have further exacerbated the gender disparities in carrying out traditionally female dominated household tasks like cooking, taking care of the children and elderlies in the household. • Georgia is not immune to the worldwide increase in prices of essential items like food and healthcare. The ongoing war in Ukraine further impacts the Georgian economy. Therefore, tracking the impact of inflation along with the economic recovery will be vital going forward. • Detecting the impact earlier might allow for possible policy remedies to help the vulnerable Georgians. • Funding for round 5 of the survey and beyond has been provided by Sweden through the Trust Fund funding the Program for Poverty Reduction in Georgia. Main Messages from Round 5 (March 2022) • COVID-19 prevalence significantly increased between June 2021 and March 2022, likely stemming from the omicron wave of infection which took place in January and February of 2022. In total, 69% of the public reports either they or a household member has caught COVID 19. • Vaccination status stands at approximately 42% of the public according to this survey, which is in line with estimates from national institutions. • Very few individuals who are not already vaccinated intend to receive a vaccine in the future. Individuals that are interested in or uncertain over whether they want to get vaccinated moving forward tend to either have caught COVID 19 or are ethnic minorities. • Employment has steadily recovered over the course of the pandemic. While 32% of respondents reported that they were employed in December of 2020, 43% did in March of 2022. • While a large share of people who had lost a job returned to work during the pandemic, the return to work has been uneven. Women, poorer people, people living in households with more elderly people and children, and the unvaccinated were significantly less likely to return to the workforce than others. Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS), Round 5 Main Messages from Round 5 (March 2022) • Overall, 38% of households with school-aged children reported missing school during the current school year. • Poorer households (measured by Wealth Index) and households receiving targeted social assistance were significantly more likely to report their child missed school at some point during the current school year. • Household that had children aged 2-5 years old, 53% report that children have never attended a formal childcare institution, signifying the need to improve childcare. • The vast majority of the public (85-96%) reports increases in prices in recent times on food and non-alcoholic beverages (96%), transport and fuel (94%), utilities and housing (85%), and healthcare (85%). • For all categories asked about, a majority report consuming less in response to the above noted inflation - a concerning development given the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine. • Poorer households, women, people in urban areas, older people, people without tertiary education, and people receiving TSA report they were significantly more likely to consume less food. • Aside from grocery shopping, more women than men report that they are primarily responsible for carrying out household tasks such as cooking, cleaning, taking care of children and elderly. • The pandemic might have exacerbated such burden for women. Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS), Round 5 II. Survey Methods COVID-19 Outbreak Feb/March 2021 In-person Jan 30. WHO schooling Mar 11. WHO declares outbreak starts and declares COVID-19 Summer 2020 a Public Health gradual ease of global pandemic. Restrictions Emergency. restrictions. lifted. Feb 26. Nov 2020 Mar 21. March 15, 2021 Georgian citizen 23 May. State of Second International Vaccination returning from emergency lockdown. passenger traffic started. Iran diagnosed lifted. Economic suspended. w/ COVID-19. activities Mar 23. First strict quarantine permitted, with Georgia High- Feb 29. restrictions. exceptions. Frequency Georgia Restrictions on gatherings. Survey. Round 5 closes collected in March schools. 2022. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Mar Jun Mar 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2022 Georgia ES 2019. COVID-19 Monitor Georgia COVID-19 Georgia High- Georgia High- 701 interviews (581 survey.** Six rounds Georgia COVID-19 Follow-up Round 2. Frequency Follow-up Round 1. Same 701 firms re- Frequency SMEs and large + collected between Apr-June Survey. Survey. 120 micro firms) 2020, by random digit Same 701 firms (ES contacted. 575 successful Round 2 2019) interviewed interviews completed in Round 4 conducted between dialing. Information collected collected in June 2-10 by CATI.* Oct-Nov 2020 by CATI.* collected in Mar-2019 & Jan- on individual attitudes, Jan/Feb 2021. 2020. behaviors, wellbeing and June 2021. expectations. Georgia High-Frequency Survey. Round 1 collected in Dec 2020, by Georgia High- random digit dialing. Information Frequency Data & knowledge response collected on COVID-19 shocks on jobs, incomes, learning, government assistance; individual Survey. Round 3 collected in attitudes and expectations. March 2021. Coverage of COVID-19 Monitoring COVID-19 High-Frequency Surveys Collected data on the socioeconomic impacts of COVID-19 on households and individuals in 48 countries. Cross-country harmonized indicators are available.** https://www.worldbank.org/en/data/interactive/2020/11/11/covid-19-high-frequency-monitoring-dashboard Source: World Bank (2021). * Completed or under implementation as of March 15th, 2021. ** Updated as of February 19th, 2021. 9 GHFS Methodology and Implementation Georgia High Frequency Surveys: Design Survey Response Round Sampling frame Coverage Method Dates Sample Structure rate • 1,986 interviews COVID-19 Dec 18th – completed Monitoring : 24th, 2020 40% Round 1 Jan 27th – Feb 1st, COVID-19 39% • 2,042 interviews 2021 Pooled Monitoring: completed cross- Round 2 sectional Representative of CATI† • 2,104 interviews Random dialing March 24th data the national completed of cellphone – March COVID-19 population; Tbilisi, 32% numbers. 30th, 2021 Monitoring: Other Urban, Rural Round 3 locations. June 2nd – COVID-19 June 9th , • 2086 interviews Monitoring: 2021 completed Round 4 38% COVID-19 Monitoring: 27% March 11th • 2048 interviews Round 5 – March completed 18th , 2022 Source: World Bank. † Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews. 10 GHFS Methodology and Implementation Georgia High Frequency Surveys: Topics Socio-demographic Education and COVID-19 Prevalence status Childcare Employment Household incomes Household Tasks Inflation Vaccine Uptake 11 I. III. Impact of COVID-19 on individuals and households Main results 1) Prevalence of COVID-19 Prevalence of COVID-19 is still higher in densely populated urban areas, but the infection rates have increased since last survey (June 2021). Since the outbreak, around 69 % of all households had at least 1 member who were tested positive or had similar symptoms to COVID-19. Most reported cases had been confirmed by a lab test. Ethnic minorities were less likely to report catching COVID 19. Women were more likely to report catching COVID 19. Households with more members were also more likely to report catching COVID 19. People who were vaccinated were also more likely to report having caught COVID 19. National average By different categories (%) 100 90 77 75 72 73 74 71 80 69 65 90 70 60 63 61 57 60 80 50 70 40 69 30 %Households 60 20 10 50 0 Vaccinated Tbilisi Large household (7 Georgian Ethnic minoritiy Other urban Single member household Not vaccinated Male Female Rural Median household size (4 40 members) 30 members) 20 23 23 20 16 10 0 December January 2021 March 2021 June 2021 March 2022 2020 Ethnicity Sex Settlement type Household size Vaccination status Source: Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS), Rounds 1, 2, 3, 4 & 5. Notes: Respondents weighted by post-stratification weights for the national adult population. 13 2) COVID-19 Vaccine Overall, 42% of the population report that they have received a vaccine, a rise from 5% compared with June 2021. • In GHFS-4 and 5, respondents were asked if they received vaccine. • Only 5% of Georgian adults have received the COVID-19 vaccine in June 2021, however, after almost a year it has risen to 42%. • The vaccination rate is higher among people in Tbilisi compared to other areas of the country, among people with higher education, those who have caught COVID 19, and older population. Received COVID-19 vaccine 60 50 50 46 42 41 40 35 36 % Individuals 34 33 30 31 30 20 10 0 Tbilisi Other urban Rural No tertiary Tertiary Did not Had COVID 18-34 35-54 55+ have COVID Settlement type Education level Caught COVID Age group Source: Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS). Round 5. 14 2) COVID-19 Vaccine Vaccine hesitancy remains high in Georgia. Among the 58% of the public who have not been vaccinated, 80% do not plan to get a vaccine. Only 8% plans to receive a Covid-19 vaccine, and a further 12% were uncertain. In general, I don’t trust vaccines 31 Due to my health conditions (including allergies and other health- related issues) 20 • The main reason for hesitancy Vaccines are not effective at treating diseases (will not work) 14 which respondents named was The vaccine will not be thoroughly tested (not safe) 13 lack of trust in vaccines, which 31% of the respondents I already had COVID-19 11 reported, followed by health Vaccines create larger health problems for the individual who receives them (worried about the side effects) 8 conditions (including allergies) (20%), the belief that vaccines the virus does not exist / or do not believe in its existence 5 are ineffective at treating It will take too long to get vaccinated/Don’t have time to get 1 vaccinated. disease (14%), a lack of testing Health facility too far or too hard to get to. 0 of the vaccines (13%), and already having had COVID 19 I am worried to get infected with COVID-19 at the health facility 0 (10%). Other reasons were It’s against my religion 0 named by less than 10% of Other 5 respondents. DK 8 RA 2 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Source: Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS). Round 5. 15 3) Education A large percentage of households (38%) who have at least one school-aged child report that there were times when children stopped schooling during the current school year. • To understand this issue, a regression model was created that included the variables noted in the appendix. Households who are better off (Wealth Index) were significantly less likely to report their children had gaps in learning. • Similarly, households receiving targeted social assistance were significantly more likely to report their child missed school at some point during the current school year. Predicted probabilities of missing some school 100 90 80 70 70 60 50 37 39 38 39 40 34 32 29 31 30 30 27 20 17 10 0 Minimum Median Max 10% of 30% of 50% of Ethnic Ethnic Does not Receives Did not Had COVID household household household Georgian minority receive TSA TSA have COVID under 18 under 18 under 18 Wealth index Youth dependency ratio Ethnicity Targeted social Caught COVID assistance status Source: Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS). Round 5. For Wealth Index see Annex. For detail regression analysis method and variable see Appendix. 16 4) Childcare Household that had children aged 2-5 years old, 53% report that children have never attended a formal childcare institution, signifying the need to improve childcare. Reasons for not attending formal childcare institution% • Households with children 5 years old or younger (17% of the Usual childcare or pre-school center closed or restricted service… 41 sample) were asked about the Mother does not work and provides childcare 30 frequency of attendance at formal Too far away 7 Other household members provide childcare 7 childcare centers or preschool Child requires special attention or has mental development,… 3 institutions in the past month. Mother works from home and provides childcare 2 Father does not work and provides childcare 1 • The remaining respondents Other relatives or acquaintances not living in the household… 1 Working hours of childcare center not suitable 1 reported children aged 2-5 Do not trust childcare centers 1 attended 1 to 2 days per week Father works from home and provides childcare 0 (8%) or 3 days per week or more Too Costly 0 (39%). Other 7 Don’t know 3 Refuse to answer 2 • The main reason (41%) is due to 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 childcare institution being closed, likely due to Covid-19 followed by mother taking care of children (30%). Source: Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS). Round 5. 17 5) Household Tasks The survey further explored the division of labor for various household tasks in the household. • The data indicate that aside from grocery shopping, more women than men report they are primarily responsible for carrying out household tasks. For cooking and cleaning, 85% of the female respondents said they are primarily responsible for performing this task, while only 15% of male respondents reported the same. When it comes to shopping for groceries and household necessities men were slightly more likely to report they were responsible than women (73% versus 65%). • Helping children with homework was reported by 70% of the female respondents, while only 31% of the males said they do the same. • When it comes to taking children or elderly to medical appointments, 68% of women reported they were primarily responsible for this task, compared with 43% of men. Are you the primary responsible for performing the following household tasks?(%) 90 85 80 73 70 65 68 70 60 50 43 40 31 30 20 15 10 0 Cooking and cleaning Shopping for groceries and Helping children with Taking children or elderly to household necessities homework/education medical appointments Male Female Source: Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS). Round 5. 18 6) Employment The employment is recovering, but not quite yet the pre-pandemic level. • Overall, 51% of the population reported they were employed before the Covid-19 pandemic. In contrast, 43% of the population reported they were employed last week. • Among those who had a job prior to the pandemic, 74% report they were working during the week prior to the survey. • In contrast, 10% of those who did not have a job in March 2020 reported having one in the last week. In total, 88% of those working last week report that they kept the same job, while 12% say they changed their job during the pandemic. When the data is looked at over time, it shows steady rises in employment. • While in December 2020, 32% of the public reported being employed, 43% did in March of 2022. Percentage of adults employed 60 50 51 45 43 40 42 30 34 32 20 10 0 March 2020 December 2020 January 2021 March 2021 June 2021 March 2022 Source: Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS). Round 1, 2, 3, 4 & 5. 19 6) Employment Disruption in employment during the pandemic was reported by 22% of the population. • Among those who were working before the pandemic, 37% say they were unemployed at some point during the pandemic, and 63% did not report any disruption in their employment during the last two years. • The larger the share of elderly people in a household, the less likely it was that there would be a disruption in employment. • Men were more likely than women to report disruptions in employment. People in rural areas and people with tertiary education were also significantly less likely to experience disruptions in employment. Disruption in employment 50 45 40 35 30 28 25 25 26 26 25 20 17 17 18 16 15 12 10 5 0 No elderly 50% of 100% of Male Female Tbilisi Other urban Rural No tertiary Tertiary people household household elderly elderly Elder dependency Sex Settlement type Education level Source: Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS). Round 5. 20 6) Employment COVID is still the dominant reasons that people lost job. • The most frequently named were COVID related reasons (30%), followed by being a casual worker (15%), and being ill (9%). • Approximately 15% of relevant respondents named some other reason, though there were no reasons which a large share of these respondents named. • Reasons for disruption of work varied from business stopped due to the war in Ukraine to started studying. Reasons for losing a job % Lost job/no business because of covid-19 30 Casual worker 15 Ill 9 Contract ended/fired for reason unrelated to… 8 Need to care for children or elderly (including… 4 Temporarily absent 4 Retired 4 Don't want to be exposed to the virus 2 Need to care for ill family 1 Lack of transportation 1 Other 15 Don't know 3 Refuse to answer 4 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Source: Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS). Round 5. 21 7) Income shocks 49% of the households reported that their household income is less compared to February 2020 (before COVID-19). • This rate is significantly higher than all previous rounds of survey, increasing by more than 10 percentage points in all locations. Rural area saw the highest percentage and the largest increase of households reporting less income compared to the last survey in June 2021. • Respondents with tertiary education, ethnic Georgians, those with no elderly people in their household, those that did not lose a job during the pandemic, and richer households were less likely to report that their household income decreased during the pandemic and relatively more likely to report it stayed the same. Percentage of Households with Decreased Income 60% 49%50% 50% 47% 42% 39% 40% % of Households 35% 35% 34% 35% 31% 31% 32% 29% 29% 30% 25% 20% 10% 0% Dec-2020 Jan-2021 March-2021 June-2021 Mar-22 Tbilisi Other Urban Rural Source: Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS). Round 5. 22 8) Inflation Georgia experienced 9.6% annualized inflation in 2021, a significant climb over past years. • While in 2012 and 2013, Georgia experienced mild deflation, it stood at between 2.1% and 6% in the years between 2014 and 2020. In 2021, inflation climbed from 5.2% to 9.6%. • In January of 2022, year on year inflation stood at 13.9%, remaining high at 13.7% in February 2022 and 11.8% in March. Annual inflation (consumer prices, %) 12 10 9.6 8 6 6 4.9 5.2 4 4 3.1 2.6 2 2.1 0 -0.9 -0.5 -2 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS). National Statistics Office of Georgia . 23 8) Inflation Overwhelming majority of the Georgians report that the prices paid for different items over the past six months increased. • The vast majority reported price increases on all categories asked about. Overall, 96% of the population report that the prices they paid for food and nonalcoholic beverages increased, 94% report increased prices for transport and fuel, 85% for utilities and housing, and 85% for healthcare including medicine. • Most other respondents reported that prices stayed the same, and 1% or less of respondents reported declining prices Share of public reporting price changes (%) Health care (including medicine) 85 7 7 Utilities and housing (including rent and mortgage, repairs and 85 10 3 maintenance) Transport and Fuel (Both public transport and fuel for private transport) 94 3 2 Food and Non-alcoholic beverages 96 31 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Increased Remained the same Decreased Don't know Source: Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS). Round 5. 24 8) Inflation Majority of HHs report adjusting their spending patters due to the recent uptick in prices. • Overall, 40% of those who said the prices for food and nonalcoholic beverages increased, did not report changes in spending, while 58% said they started consuming less. • When it comes to transport and fuel, 56% of those who reported an increase of prices, say they used it less, while 42% reported no changes in their spending pattern. • In total, 44% report no changes in spending patterns for housing and utilities despite the increase of prices, while 55% report consuming less. • As for the healthcare category, 40% report they started consuming less healthcare, while 56% report not adjusting their spending pattern. • A further 3% report stopping consumption of healthcare. Coping behavior among those experiencing price increases (%) Health care (including medicine) 40 3 56 1 Utilities and housing (including rent and mortgage, repairs and 55 44 maintenance) Transport and Fuel (Both public transport and fuel for private transport) 56 1 42 1 Food and Non-alcoholic beverages 58 1 40 1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Started consuming less Stopped consuming the product Has not adjusted spending pattern Don't know Source: Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS). Round 5. 25 8) Inflation Furthermore, in response to increased prices, 53% of households report purchasing less desirable food, 73% say they put off repairs or purchases for household items, 58% mention they stopped purchasing a product which they used to regularly purchase, and 55% made fewer trips by car or used public transport more often to save money over the past month. Less people report taking credit or loans (20%) or stopping seeing doctors/consuming health care services (26%). Coping strategies among those experiencing price increases (%) 100 90 80 73 70 55 58 60 53 50 40 30 26 20 20 10 0 Purchased less Put off repairs or Made fewer trips by Stopped purchasing Taken loans or Stopped seeing desirable food? purchases of car or used public a product which you credit? doctors/health care household items? transport more used to regularly services? often? purchase to save money? Source: Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS). Round 5. 26 8) Inflation Households in other urban and rural areas seem to be hit harder by the higher prices. • Data shows that close to 60 percent of households in other urban and rural areas had to either consume less or stopped consuming food, transport and fuel, and utilities and housing due to higher prices, while the rate was around 40-50 percent in Tbilisi. • Spending on healthcare (including medicine) was less affected, yet, larger share of households had to either consume less or stop consuming in other urban and rural areas compared to Tbilisi. Percent of Households Consuming Less/Stopped Consuming Due to Price Increase 70 61.9 59.3 59.6 58.0 58.9 60 56.6 51.1 50 46.4 45.7 % of Households 44.4 43.3 40 36.3 30 20 10 0 Food and Non- Transport and Fuel Utilities and housing Healthcare alcoholic beverages (including medicine) Tbilisi Other Urban Rural Source: Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS). Round 5. 27 8) Inflation Poorer households, women, people in urban areas, older people, people without tertiary education, and people receiving TSA report they were significantly more likely to consume less food. Predicted probabilities of consuming less food/non-alcoholic beverages 100 92 90 80 70 68 69 67 68 67 70 69 70 64 62 61 62 60 60 60 60 50 41 40 30 20 10 0 Tbilisi 18-34 35-54 Other urban No tertiary Tertiary Yes Minimum Male Female 55+ Max Rural Does not receive TSA Receives TSA No Median Wealth index Job lost during Sex Settlement type Age group Education level Target social pandemic assistance status Source: Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS). Round 5. 28 9) Socioeconomic status Respondents were asked to make a self-assessment of their households’ current financial standing. • A third of households evaluate their state as good (33%) or very good (1%), while 65% said that they face either a bad (49%) or very bad financial situation (17%). • When comparing with the previous waves of the GHFS, the data show that perceptions of financial situations did not change much over time. Economic well-being over time (%) 80 70 72 68 67 64 65 60 50 40 35 34 30 30 31 26 20 10 0 December 2020 January 2021 March 2021 June 2021 March 2022 Good Bad Source: Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS). Round 5. 29 THANK YOU! Alan Fuchs Tarlovsky Natsuko Kiso Nozaki afuchs@worldbank.org nkiso@worldbank.org M Fernanda Gonzalez Icaza Laxman Timilsina mgonzalezicaza@worldbank.org ltimilsina@worldbank.org Annex 31 Wealth Index The wealth index was constructed as a simple additive index. A respondent is given one point for each of the following items which they report owning: a refrigerator, a color TV, a smartphone, a laptop or tablet, an automobile, air conditioning, an automatic washing machine, hot water, and central heating. Rather than report the results of analysis using this variable on a 0 to 9 scale, this report presents the results of analysis at representative values including the minimum (0 items owned), median (6 items owned), and maximum number of items owned (9). Ownership of durable goods/ Wealth index (% of population) 25 20 20 19 15 14 12 11 10 8 7 4 5 1 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Source: Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS). Round 5. 32 Welfare Distribution of Sampled Households Based on Asset Ownership Across Survey Rounds • This figure shows the distribution of households based on the wealth index presented in the previous slide, plotting number of types of assets owned by the household on x-axis and percentage of households on the vertical axis. • Data are from all rounds of GHFSs (from round 1 to 5). Indices are comparable across different rounds of survey. • Households may be vulnerable to shocks as indicated by shifts in distribution over time. • In round 5 (March 2022), households appear to have shifted from higher to lower wealth categories (particularly from 6-7 asset groups to 3-5 asset groups). Distribution of Sampled Households Based on Asset Ownership 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5 Calculation of Predicted probabilities • When reporting significant differences in the above presentation, the analysis makes use of predicted probabilities which come from a regression appropriate to the outcome variable under exploration. • When the predicted values are calculated, continuous variables are held at their mean. In contrast, categorical variables are held at average values across categories, equivalent to their proportion within the sample under consideration. • This approach is in contrast to holding categorical variables constant through using the base category of a variable. The approach used in this report is preferrable as many of the categorical variables in this report show significant variation. If categorical variables were held constant using the base category, then the analysis would effectively be predicting the values for an 18–34-year-old, ethnic Georgian, male, living in Tbilisi, without tertiary education, who does not receive targeted social assistance, did not lose a job during the pandemic, did not catch COVID and did not have a family member who caught COVID, and was not vaccinated. • Instead, through using average values of categories, the analysis adjusts for all characteristics when predicting probabilities. Illustrative values for adjustments are provided in the table below. Importantly, due to missingness on different outcomes of interest varying with each question, these values differ slightly for many of the regressions reported within this report • Rather than predicting values for an 18–34-year-old Georgian man living in Tbilisi, the predicted probabilities are for a 13% ethnic minority/87% ethnic Georgian, 46% male/ 54% female, 30% tertiary educated 70% not tertiary educated population. Predictions were calculated in R using the ggeffects, ggemmeans package. Calculation of Predicted probabilities Value held Variable type Variable constant at Wealth 5.79 Elder Dependency Ratio 0.2 Child Dependency Ratio 0.18 Continuous variables Household member count 4.09 Ethnicity 0.13 Sex 0.54 Capital 0.3 Other urban 0.27 Rural 0.43 18-34 0.31 35-54 0.35 55+ 0.34 Education 0.3 Targeted social assistance 0.25 Caught COVID 0.7 Job loss 0.22 Categorical variables Vaccinated 0.42