THEORY OF CHANGE Romanian National Urban Policy Disclaimer This report is a product of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/the World Bank. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. Copyright Statement The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable laws. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with the complete information to either: (i) the Ministry of Public Works, Development and Administration (Bd. Libertatii 16, Sector 5, Bucharest, Romania); or (ii) the World Bank Group Romania (Vasile Lascăr Street 31, Et 6, Sector 2, Bucharest, Romania). Acknowledgements This report has been delivered under the provisions of the Reimbursable Advisory Services Agreement on the Romania Urban Policy and has been prepared under the guidance and supervision of Christoph Pusch (Practice Manager, Urban and Disaster Risk Management, Europe and Central Asia), Tatiana Proskuryakova (Country Manager, Romania and Hungary), and David N. Sislen (Practice Manager, Urban and Disaster Risk Management, Latin America and Caribbean). The team functioned under the guidance of Dean Cira (Lead Urban Specialist) and Paul Kriss (Lead Urban Specialist) with core team members Yondela Silimela (Senior Urban Specialist), Carli Venter (Senior Urban Development Specialist), Marcel Ionescu-Heroiu (Senior Urban Development Specialist), Rosa Gabriela De Luis Matesanz (Urban Development Specialist), Alexandra Lulache (Urban Development Specialist), and Cristina Zamfir (Senior M&E Specialist). The team would like to express its gratitude for the excellent cooperation, guidance, and timely feedback provided by the representatives of the Ministry of Public Works, Development and Administration, in particular to the Minister Ion Ștefan, State Secretary Gheorghe Păsat, General Director Alexandru Soare, Director Liviu Băileșteanu, Head of Office Radu Necșuliu, and also Daniel Vâlceanu, Amalia Virdol, Bogdan Micu, Beniamin Stoica, Alina Huzui, Georgiana Toth, Anca Ureche, Antonia Dudău, Andrei Giurăscu, Andreea Chitrosan, and all local, regional and national partners that have contributed to the elaboration of this report. This report was delivered in December 2020 under the Reimbursable Advisory Services Agreement on the Romania Urban Policy, concluded between the Ministry of Public Works, Development and Administration and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development on November 29, 2019. This report represents a supporting paper for Output 3 under the above-mentioned agreement - Inputs to the Urban Policy 2020-2035. Chapter 1 Introduction Why an Urban Policy in Romania? The absence of a coherent nationally framed and supported municipal planning regime, Urgent global challenges such as the COVID- underpinned by good practices such as 19 pandemic, rapid digitalization and the integrated development planning, multi-year subsequent digital divide, migratory budgeting and spatially informed capital movements, climate change, rapid changing investment planning is limiting the ability of economics, etc. have a direct and local impact cities and towns to respond to the most on towns and cities worldwide. pressing challenges, and become drivers of national growth and prosperity. In this unprecedented era of increasing urbanization, and in the context of the 2030 The current development trajectory of Agenda for Sustainable Development, the Romanian cities is not sustainable. It is Paris Agreement, the EU Green Deal and characterized by negative trends such as other global development agreements and urban sprawl, suburbanization, rising housing frameworks, it has become clear that cities and utility costs, alongside with strong are knowledge hubs, and source of solutions environmental challenges such as pollution to the challenges that our world is facing. and heat-events. Today, several European cities are at the Addressing these challenges whilst bridging forefront in the fight against these global the gap between dynamic and shirking cities challenges by advancing pioneering solutions lies at the core of an urban development at the level of governance and citizen approach that is inclusive, just and engagement, climate smart actions, sustainable. innovation and creativity. The development of Romania's National Urban Policy (RNUP) is fundamental to capitalize on the opportunities that cities offer Romania is one, however, of the few to ensure long-term sustained, inclusive and countries in the European Union without a sustainable development for Romanian's clear urban development policy and without a population. State-budget program dedicated exclusively to urban / metropolitan areas. 1|Page Scope of the Urban Policy The Aspen Institute and its Roundtable on Community Change further extended the The scope of the Urban Policy is to set the concept and introduced a technique called priorities for urban development in Romania, “backward mapping�2, which requires policy for the period 2021-2035, while offering makers to think in backward steps, from the guidance to local authorities when planning long-term impacts to intermediate outcomes the local initiatives. and immediate outputs. If well-planned, well-managed, and committed to offering the tools for leading a good life, cities can push forward behavioral The outcomes are considered to be and institutional changes that will benefit all. preconditions for the desired impacts; and the outputs are preconditions for the expected outcomes. The links among these elements Theory of Change are depicted in a “policy roadmap�, a graphic representation of the change process. Evaluation theorists and practitioners, such as Huey Chen, Peter Rossi or Carol Weiss, This approach was embedded in the planning highlighted the challenges in evaluating of the Romanian Urban Policy. complex programs, when the expected results The theory of change unfolds throughout the are unclear. Policy input report, which details: (1) the Policy makers are often tempted to indicate overall vision and underpinning principles for the desired directions, without defining the the urban areas, (2) the long-term goals, exact impacts and outcomes of a program, or correlated with the Leipzig Charter, (3) the the “mini-steps� required along the way. medium-term outcomes, connected to the specific objectives, (4) the immediate outputs The lack of clarity not only makes the task of of the planned measures, (5) the required evaluation challenging; it also reduces the institutional and legislative changes, (6) and likelihood of having addressed all the possible financing sources. important facts related to a certain goal. The current document reiterates the main The concept of “theory of change� was elements of the theory, in a synthetic manner. popularized by Carol Weiss1 as a detailed The aim is to ease the understanding of the description and illustration of how and why a strategy and to guide the future evaluations. desired change is expected to happen. However, stakeholders involved in the She challenged designers of complex implementation of the Urban Policy should initiatives to be specific about their theories in refer to the full text document, with complete order to ease the evaluation process and information on the planned interventions. strengthen the ability to claim credit for outcomes that were predicted in the planning phase. 1 2 Weiss, Carol (1995). Nothing as Practical as Good Anderson, Andrea (2009). The Community Theory: Exploring Theory-Based Evaluation for Builder’s Approach to Theory of Change: A Comprehensive Community Initiatives for Children Practical Guide to Theory Development. Aspen and Families in ‘New Approaches to Evaluating Institute Community Initiatives’. Aspen Institute. 2|Page Chapter 2 Vision, Goals and Objectives Vision 1. GREEN AND RESILIENT CITIES To talk about a green and resilient city means The vision of the Urban Policy expresses the to ensure that strategies for climate change “desired state� for the Romanian urban areas. mitigation, alongside with climate change The collective energies, resources and passion adaptation, and enhanced resilience to of a wide range of development partners will natural hazards are well-entrenched practices be mobilized towards a sustainable urban and are inclusive to all demographics. development. 2. COMPETITIVE AND PRODUCTIVE CITIES This goal acknowledges the role of cities as Romanian urban areas are resilient, green, pivotal engines of economic growth. It is productive, competitive and inclusive, offering premised on ensuring strategies and policies residents a high quality of life and economic that enhance the attractiveness of cities for opportunities. Local governments are business and labor force alike. This means proactive, interactive, accessible and fiscally addressing infrastructure gaps, and logistics, sustainable. They place citizens at the center, while also focusing on bringing up good and through partnerships and collaboration to co- attractive environments for workers. create smart and innovative solutions to their challenges. 3. JUST AND INCLUSIVE CITIES This goal pivots around ensuring that urban transformation leaves no one behind in its Goals evolution. Therefore, making sure that every demographic must have equal access to The goals of the Urban Policy should be services of general interest – equitable access understood as four mutually reinforcing to the urban dividend. understandings of how a city should be planned in order to ensure livability, the 4. WELL - GOVERNED CITIES pursuit of common good, and an integrating This goal revolves around ensuring efficiency, urban planning that leaves no one behind in transparency and accessibility to the its evolution. governance process. 3|Page Objectives The Urban Policy identifies a broad pallet of policy objectives that instrument the consecution of each of the Leipzig Charter goals. The pallet shall be envisaged as menu of complementary policy dimensions that can be used by all city and town administrations as they elaborate their Integrated Sustainable Urban Development Strategies. 4|Page Chapter 3 Measures MEASURE FOR GREEN & RESILIENT CITIE S MEASURES FOR JUST & INCLUSIVE CITIES Realization of green and resilient cities, livable Responses to just, inclusive and sustainable and climate smart will be premised on: cities shall pivot on: - containing the phenomenon of urban sprawl, - land-tenure regularization and regularization especially in areas with declining of ghettos to foster social housing and access demographics; to infrastructure services; - regeneration of built-up areas, paying specific - provision of well-located appropriately attention to communist-era multi-family designed and affordable housing; apartments, to brownfield and under-utilized - strong NGOs who extend government services patrimony and reducing vehicle clutter; and act as a bridge between vulnerable - investment in and activation of public open communities and governments; spaces, incorporating nature-based solutions - deliberate measures to improve access and and urban green infrastructure to mitigate affordability to public services; hydrometeorological hazards; - the reduction of the digital divide. - investment in reducing vulnerability to seismic risk. MEASURES FOR WELL -GOVERNED CITIES MEASURES FOR COMPETITIVE CITIES The goal of ensuring well-governed cities will In order to realize the goal of productive, be exemplified by: competitive and jobs-friendly cities, - a system which fosters vertical and horizontal government and development partners will: integration while respecting the autonomy of - ensure investment in necessary economic local governments; infrastructure, especially green mass transit - well-capacitated public corps; and rail; - streamlined regulatory environment; - prepare and release well located land and - efficient governance systems utilizing fit-for- properties for economic activity; purpose IT solutions; - counter the effects of demographic shrinkage - transparency and participatory governance; by nurturing strategic partnerships with educational institutions and CBOs to develop, - sound fiscal environment anchored on attract and retain a skilled workforce; predictable fiscal flows and strong Own Source Revenues (OSR). - ensure efficient governance processes that do not impede on economic competitiveness. 5|Page Chapter 4 Empowering Transversal Elements Spatial planning acting upon the aging building stock, parking overcrowding and limited public spaces and social infrastructure based on the principles of The dual challenge of uncontrolled growth circular reuse and integrated planning; and shrinkage that Romanian cities are facing, - enhance connectivity within and between the calls for a versatile approach where the role urban and peri-urban areas based on the of the spatial planning system is strengthened principles of accessibility and policy and shifted from land-use planning towards integration of land-use and infrastructure integrating, balancing and transposing planning, in order to reduce sprawl induced sectoral development directions into the car use and enhance equitable access to realities of the built environment. resources. Digital tools For this purpose, four key policy directions ought to be integrated: - establish a common vision to advance spatial The deployment of fit-for-purpose digital sustainability and enhance the institutional tools enables more evidence based-decision capacity to promote sustainable urbanization making, appropriate and well targeted patterns, by signaling the shared responsibility investments and efficient operations. of all stakeholders and levels of government to act towards the respective goals and their interdependence on spatial planning; The Urban Policy proposes two levels of - enable integrated planning of peri-urban intervention in the development of development to shape compact, connected appropriate digital tools: and diverse communities while containing - the first seeks to reinforce a coherent logic for uncontrolled expansion and addressing smart cities that applies across all cities, deficiencies in physical and social underpinned by principles such as inter- infrastructure in the existing peri-urban operability, visibility, etc. and premised on communities; adequate capacity. etc.; - capitalize on the existing urban assets such as - the second focuses on city-level interventions patrimony and brownfields and to improve and recommends specific tools necessary to the attractiveness of the urban core and accelerate the achievement of RNUP goals. existing urban residential neighborhoods by 6|Page Chapter 5 Prioritization - Prioritized objectives “The key to becoming a more efficient leader is not From the broad list of urban objectives, five priority objectives checking off all the items on emerge as the most crucial directions for the Urban Policy, given your to-do list each day. It is their multiplier effect, capacity to bring about numerous co- in forming the habit of benefits and simultaneous contribution to several goals. prioritizing your time so 1) Spatial Sustainability that you are accomplishing 2) Create livable and climate smart cities by enhancing green and your most important goals blue infrastructure to mitigate and adapt to urban hazards in an efficient manner.� 3) Enhance economic activity by providing quality living John C. Maxwell environments, improving job opportunities and well-serviced business locations 4) Improve living conditions notably by extending access to housing and public services 5) Improve public capacity and cooperation across jurisdictions and sectors The non-prioritized policy objectives shall not be disregarded but envisaged as complementary policy directions that cities can integrate to further their pursuit to achieve the four overarching goals. Prioritized measures The priority objectives encompass several associated measures that enable their operationalization, identify the legislative loopholes or needs, the institutional and/ or capacity needs, and the financing opportunities for their effective consecution. 7|Page Chapter 6 Policy Roadmap – Prioritized Objectives 8|Page Chapter 7 Monitoring and Evaluation Timeline Institutional Arrangements The M&E Committee (within the Ministry of Public Works, The monitoring function will Development and Administration) will implement all activities be premised on regular related to monitoring function (e.g., collection and aggregation of checks on the progress of monitoring data) and coordinate activities related to evaluation the Policy through a function (e.g., approval of interim and final evaluations). continuous and systematic collection and analysis of Local Authorities are expected to submit annually information on monitoring data. the portfolio and progress of local urban projects. The evaluation function will The newly established Urban Observatory will alert about include selective possible changes in the context of the Urban Policy (e.g., under- assessments, aimed at performing urban indicators). providing feedback and External Technical Assistance is envisaged for assessing the lessons learned, to be effectiveness, efficiency, relevance and impact of the Urban embedded into strategic Policy. Results will be disseminated through four evaluation planning and decision- reports. making process. 9|Page Indicators The M&E functions will rely on the system of indicators of the Urban Observatory, which comprises more than 800 indicators, associated with the five dimensions of the Urban Policy – spatial, environmental, economic, social and government. A closer monitoring will be ensured for the indicators directly linked to the priority interventions of the Policy, presented in the below table. DIMENSION CODE INDICATOR 1 Ratio of land consumption to population growth rate SPATIAL 2 Adoption of integrated urban plans 3 Satisfaction with public spaces (Urban barometer) 4 Greenhouse Gas emissions per capita 5 Green zones per capita ENVIRONMENTAL 6 Number of times the limit of main air pollutants is exceeded 7 % of people within 0,5 km of public transit running at least every 20 min 8 Gross Domestic Product per capita 9 Skills gaps in the current workforce 10 Research and development intensity ECONOMIC 11 Accessibility of national roads 12 Freight train traffic 13 Satisfaction with social and health services (Urban barometer) 14 Satisfaction with cultural, recreational and leisure services (Urban barometer) 15 Population at risk of poverty or exclusion SOCIAL 16 Affordable homes delivered 17 Population with access to internet 18 Own revenues per capita 19 EU funds received 20 Allocation of expenditure for staff trainings GOVERNANCE 21 Cooperation with other municipalities and other levels of government 22 Citizen participation in local planning 23 Satisfaction with opportunities to participate in local planning (Urban barometer) 10 | P a g e 11 | P a g e