Supplementary Materials to Climate Shocks, Vulnerability, Resilience and Livelihoods in Rural Zambia Hambulo Ngoma1,3, Arden Finn2, Mulako Kabisa1 1 Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute, Lusaka, Zambia 2 The World Bank, Poverty and Equity Global Practice, Washington, DC 3 International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Harare, Zimbabwe (current address) This report contains additional descriptive and econometric outputs for the paper ‘climate shocks, vulnerability, resilience and livelihoods in rural Zambia. To some extent, some narration is given where this is not provided in the main paper. Do smallholder farmers’ perceptions of changes in weather patterns align with changes observed in weather data? The 2019 RALS asked retrospective questions on whether there have been any changes observed in rainfall and temperature patterns between the 2015/2016 and 2017/2018 agricultural seasons. At national level, about 23% of smallholder farmers felt that rainfall had increased between the two seasons, whereas 65% reported a decrease in precipitation (Table S1). Overall, Figure S1 shows that a larger proportion of rural farmers perceived a decline in rainfall at the national level. The perceived decline in rainfall is more pronounced in Southern, Western, North-Western, Lusaka, Central and Copperbelt Provinces (Table S1 and Figure S1). Between the 2015/2016 and 2017/2018 seasons, 53% of smallholder farmers perceived temperature to have increased while only 19% reported temperature to have decreased (Table S1 and Figure S1). With regards to gender, 52% of female-headed households indicated that temperature had increased, whereas 20% suggested a drop in temperature. Furthermore, the majority of farmers in Lusaka Province (43.1%) reported a decline in temperature (Figure S2). In sum, a larger proportion of smallholder farmers in Zambia perceive reductions in seasonal rainfall and increased temperatures between the 2015/2016 1 and 2017/2018 agricultural seasons. These findings are in line with Mulenga et al. (2017) who found that smallholder farmers in Zambia perceived a short and less predictable rainy season and rising average temperature. 70 65 60 Proportions of households 53 50 40 30 27 23 19 20 12 10 0 Increased No change Decreased Perceived rainfall changes Perceived temperature changes Figure S1: Proportions of smallholder who perceived changes in rainfall and temperature at national level between 2015/16 and 2018/19 Source: RALS (2019) 100 Proportions of households 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Increased rainfall No change in rainfall Decreased rainfall Increased temperature No change in temperature Decreased temperature Figure S2: Proportions of smallholder who perceived changes in rainfall and temperature at provincial level between 2015/16 and 2018/19 Source: RALS (2019) 2 Figure S3 reports provincial-level mean differences in rainfall between the 2015/2016 and the 2018/2019 seasons computed from the CHIRPS data. To a large extent, results in Figure S3 are in line with farmer’s perceptions that rainfall has reduced at national level and more so in Southern, Western and North-Western Provinces between the 2015/2016 and 2018/2019 agricultural seasons. However, the correlations between the exogenous climate risk measures and the self-reported exposure variables are very low at less than 10%, as are the correlations between exogenous climate shocks and the outcomes variables. This calls for caution in the use of exogenous measures of climate shocks. 200 mean difference in rainfall, mm 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 Figure S3: Provincial level mean differences in rainfall amount between the 2015/2016 and 2018/2019 agricultural seasons Source: CHIRPS data A declining trend in rainfall at national level is confirmed by looking at the average standard precipitation indices between 2019 and 1982 displayed in Figures S4.1 1 Recall that a negative SPI suggests rainfall deficits in time t relative to the long term average 3 1.00 37-year srandard precipitation index 0.50 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.50 -2.00 -2.50 Figure S4: Provincial level average standard precipitation indices between 1982 and 2019. Source: CHIRPS data Main copings strategies used by rural households in Zambia While these coping strategies are not specific to climate risks, they can contribute to building resilience among households. The five most commonly used coping mechanisms at the national level are spending household savings used by 22.2% of households, followed by purchasing food on credit (20.0%), borrowing money to buy food (18.2%), reducing on essential non-food expenditures such as education, health and clothes (7.96%), and depending on food rations or support from neighbors and relatives as their food and income source (7.56%) (Figure S5). Similar top five coping strategies are used at province level, by farm size categories, gender and agro-ecological zone (Figure S6). 4 25 22.2 20 20 18.2 Proportion of households 15 10 7.96 7.56 5.23 4.83 4.73 4.62 4.5 5 3.93 3.22 2.67 2.1 1.54 1.28 1.04 0.62 0.56 0.39 0.29 0.16 0 Figure S5: Coping strategies used by rural households in response to food shortages or lack of money to buy food at national level Source: RALS (2019) 5 30 26 25 25 23 23 23 20 20 19 19 19 18 Proportions 16 15 15 12 12 10 9 9 8 7 7 5 4 0 Zone I Zone IIA Zone IIB Zone III Agro-ecological zones savings credit borrowing non-food expenditure depend on rations Figure S6: Top five coping strategies used by rural households in response to food shortages or lack of money to buy food by agro-ecological zone Source: RALS 2019 6 Table S1: Population of people affected by floods in different agricultural season Province 2018/2019 season 2017/2018 season 2016/2017 season 2015/2016 season Central 10125.50 19396.84 29315.68 24921.87 Copperbelt 1271.54 1498.55 1961.30 2560.33 Eastern 100403.22 29310.49 28455.24 21423.82 Luapula 9052.67 14020.68 9884.64 5564.84 Lusaka 1292.33 3737.55 5923.09 3354.70 Muchinga 29136.16 17682.83 11217.10 8338.46 Northern 34560.56 26294.65 11435.91 13078.00 Northwestern 5364.56 8943.68 8542.79 4211.61 Southern 786.74 18437.52 28103.94 38025.40 Western 5625.51 62934.60 49152.12 36203.40 National 197618.78 202257.38 183991.81 157682.43 Table S2: Population of people affected by drought in different agricultural season Province 2018/2019 2017/2018 2016/2017 2015/2016 season season season season Central 149280.74 96667.55 15868.48 9508.28 Copperbelt 53009.46 40867.42 17088.55 12840.32 Eastern 139893.96 202718.84 104321.10 72544.82 Luapula 66399.82 33048.29 14236.78 12076.96 Lusaka 47706.13 14886.78 3662.87 3408.51 Muchinga 46359.33 45726.64 22208.53 16881.26 Northern 87431.96 71626.43 60552.84 42084.99 Northwestern 65362.13 16798.38 4465.62 1810.74 Southern 233311.31 98538.16 26726.89 24171.33 Western 152462.27 31858.16 13426.08 13925.01 National 1041217.10 652736.66 282557.74 209252.22 7 63.3 63.4 Proportions 40.6 37.4 17.7 16 13.2 13.7 10.2 11.4 10.7 11.4 11.8 11.3 12.3 8.14 FLOODS DROUGHTS FLOODS DROUGHTS FLOODS DROUGHTS FLOODS DROUGHTS 2015/2016 SEASON 2016/2017 SEASON 2017/2018 SEASON 2018/2019 SEASON Female headed Male headed Figure S7:Proportion of gender that experienced floods and droughts across agricultural seasons Table S3: Proportion of resilient and vulnerable households by gender of household head and gendered household type. Resilient Vulnerable Gender of household head Female headed households 19.05 80.95 headed households 25.06 74.94 Gendered household type Female adults only 20.44 79.56 Male adults only 52.86 47.14 Male and Female adults 23.35 76.65 Children only 0.00 100.00 8 Figure S8: Provincial level spatial distribution of farm households that experienced floods in any part of their fields during the 2015/2016 season (top left), the 2016/2017 season (top right), the 2017/2018 season (bottom left) and 2018/2019 season (bottom right). 9 Figure S9: Provincial level spatial distribution of households that experienced droughts in any part of their fields during the 2015/2016 season (top left), the 2016/2017 season (top right), the 2017/2018 season (bottom left) and 2018/2019 season (bottom right). Source: RALS (2019) 10 Table S3: Average partial estimates of the first stage results showing relevance of the chosen instrumental variables for each endogenous variable (model) Model 1: Model 2: Model 3: Used MT Access to loans Crop diversity Received CSA advice at t-1 0.031** (2.081) Member loan group 0.201*** (11.288) Received advice on crop diversity 0.068*** (3.840) Drought risk (yes =1) -0.066** -0.011 0.017 (-2.137) (-0.477) (0.506) Flood risk (yes =1) 0.001 -0.011 0.009 (0.031) (-0.604) (0.334) Growing seasonal rainfall/100 -0.008 0.015** 0.001 (-0.984) (2.234) (0.078) 30-year rainfall coeff. variation -0.469 0.999*** -1.216*** (-1.102) (3.185) (-2.589) Number of rainfall stress days 0.041* -0.058*** 0.047 (1.799) (-2.817) (1.455) Standard precipitation index -0.088** -0.022 -0.046 (-2.176) (-0.765) (-1.136) Asset index 0.004 0.011*** -0.016*** (1.262) (4.177) (-4.008) Female, hh head (yes =1) -0.041*** -0.016 -0.023 (-3.108) (-1.188) (-1.451) Age, household head -0.004 -0.028*** -0.009 (-1.027) (-6.534) (-1.571) Education, household head -0.001 -0.006*** -0.003 (-0.388) (-4.087) (-1.437) Dependency ratio 0.001 -0.005 -0.009 (0.188) (-0.754) (-0.978) Members 0 – 5 years -0.009 -0.002 0.015 (-1.231) (-0.333) (1.614) Members 5– 10 years 0.007 -0.009 -0.002 (1.063) (-1.504) (-0.302) Members 10 – 15 years -0.010* 0.002 -0.010 (-1.857) (0.402) (-1.462) Members 15 – 64 years -0.000 0.000 -0.005 (-0.086) (0.102) (-0.996) Members >65 years 0.001 0.003 -0.003 (0.250) (0.959) (-0.773) Farm size/100 0.058 -0.079* 0.126** (1.298) (-1.903) (2.338) Distance market/100 -0.044 -0.013 -0.034 (-1.403) (-0.582) (-1.069) Observations 6,302 6,303 6,303 11 Notes: Models 1 – 3 were estimated as separate probit regressions since with a binary endogenous variable as the dependent variable. IVs for each model are shown in bold as the first three independent variables. Robust t-statistics in parentheses: *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 Table S4: Average partial estimates of the effects of climate exposure on vulnerability and resilience among smallholders in Zambia, instrumented Probit Vulnerability Resilience (1) (2) (3) (4) Drought risk (yes =1) 0.024 0.023 -0.022 -0.022 (0.025) (0.025) (0.019) (0.019) Flood risk (yes =1) 0.007 0.006 -0.006 -0.006 (0.016) (0.016) (0.016) (0.016) Growing seasonal rainfall/100 0.015** -0.018** (0.008) (0.008) 30-year average rainfall/100 0.018 -0.019** (0.073) (0.008) 30-year rainfall coeff. variation 0.579 0.683 -0.099 -0.145 (0.392) (0.433) (0.406) (0.404) Number of rainfall stress days 0.007 0.003 -0.017 -0.017 (0.024) (0.024) (0.022) (0.022) Standard precipitation index -0.030 -0.007 0.040 0.015 (0.037) (0.099) (0.026) (0.023) Used CSA in 2019 (yes =1)+ 0.083 0.068 0.217*** 0.217*** (0.324) (0.319) (0.056) (0.056) Accessed loan (yes =1) -0.076 -0.118 0.087 0.087 (0.073) (0.075) (0.075) (0.075) Crop diversity (yes =1) -0.011 -0.012 0.008 0.008 (0.011) (0.011) (0.011) (0.011) Asset index -0.038*** -0.037*** 0.042*** 0.042*** (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) Female, hh head (yes =1) 0.033** 0.032* -0.024* -0.024* (0.017) (0.017) (0.013) (0.013) Age, household head 0.020*** 0.019*** -0.020*** -0.020*** (0.005) (0.005) (0.005) (0.005) Education, household head -0.014*** -0.014*** 0.013*** 0.013*** (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) Dependency ratio 0.000 -0.000 -0.001 -0.001 (0.006) (0.006) (0.006) (0.006) Members 0 – 5 years 0.038*** 0.038*** -0.035*** -0.035*** (0.008) (0.008) (0.008) (0.008) Members 5– 10 years 0.054*** 0.054*** -0.059*** -0.059*** (0.007) (0.007) (0.007) (0.007) Members 10 – 15 years 0.034*** 0.034*** -0.033*** -0.033*** (0.007) (0.006) (0.006) (0.006) Members 15 – 64 years 0.034*** 0.034*** -0.036*** -0.036*** (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) Members >65 years -0.001 -0.001 -0.000 -0.000 12 (0.004) (0.003) (0.004) (0.004) Farm size/100 -0.010 -0.012 0.007 0.007 (0.033) (0.032) (0.032) (0.032) Distance market/100 0.016 0.012 -0.018 -0.018 (0.024) (0.024) (0.021) (0.021) Credit residuals 0.020 0.041 -0.028 -0.028 (0.037) (0.037) (0.038) (0.038) MT residuals -0.053 -0.046 -0.158** -0.158** (0.161) (0.161) (0.071) (0.071) Crop diversity residuals -0.024** -0.024** 0.018** 0.018** (0.009) (0.009) (0.009) (0.009) Used CSA * weather shock yes yes yes yes District FE yes yes yes yes 6,274 6,302 5,885 5,885 Notes: Standard errors in parentheses; *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. Dependent variables are dummies = 1 if a household is vulnerable or resilient. A household is vulnerable if poor in all the three survey waves or fell into poverty by the third wave in 2019. This corresponds to PPP, PNP, NPP and NNP in Table 1. A resilient household is one that was never poor over the three survey waves or one that escaped poverty by the third survey wave in 2019. This corresponds to NNN, PPN, PNN and NPN in Table 1. The estimation is done using a pooled probit for the 2019 panel wave. + defined as use of either minimum tillage or hybrid maize seed or inorganic fertilizer. Columns 1 and 2 differ in the sense that one includes the current season rainfall and the other includes the 30-year average rainfall. There is a similar difference between columns 3 and 4. Table S5: Average partial estimates of the effects of climate exposure on vulnerability and resilience among smallholders in Zambia, non- instrumented Probit Vulnerability Resilience (1) (2) (3) (4) Drought risk (yes =1) 0.019 0.020 -0.019 -0.020 (0.019) (0.019) (0.019) (0.019) Flood risk (yes =1) 0.008 0.008 -0.008 -0.008 (0.016) (0.016) (0.016) (0.016) Growing seasonal rainfall/100 0.014* -0.014* (0.007) (0.007) 30-year average rainfall/100 0.019 -0.015* (0.073) (0.008) 30-year rainfall coeff. variation 0.483 0.534 -0.483 -0.523 (0.372) (0.416) (0.372) (0.370) Number of rainfall stress days 0.012 0.012 -0.012 -0.012 (0.022) (0.022) (0.022) (0.022) Standard precipitation index -0.037 -0.013 0.037 0.019 (0.025) (0.096) (0.025) (0.022) Used CSA in 2019 (yes =1)+ -0.018 -0.018 0.018 0.018 (0.015) (0.015) (0.015) (0.015) Accessed loan (yes =1) -0.040*** -0.040*** 0.040*** 0.040*** 13 (0.014) (0.014) (0.014) (0.014) Crop diversity (yes =1) -0.012 -0.012 0.012 0.012 (0.011) (0.011) (0.011) (0.011) Asset index -0.039*** -0.039*** 0.039*** 0.039*** (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) Female, hh head (yes =1) 0.029** 0.029** -0.029** -0.029** (0.012) (0.012) (0.012) (0.012) Age, household head 0.020*** 0.020*** -0.020*** -0.020*** (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) Education, household head -0.014*** -0.014*** 0.014*** 0.014*** (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) Dependency ratio -0.000 -0.000 0.000 0.000 (0.006) (0.006) (0.006) (0.006) Members 0 – 5 years 0.038*** 0.038*** -0.038*** -0.038*** (0.008) (0.008) (0.008) (0.008) Members 5– 10 years 0.055*** 0.055*** -0.055*** -0.055*** (0.007) (0.007) (0.007) (0.007) Members 10 – 15 years 0.033*** 0.033*** -0.033*** -0.033*** (0.006) (0.006) (0.006) (0.006) Members 15 – 64 years 0.034*** 0.034*** -0.034*** -0.034*** (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) Members >65 years -0.001 -0.001 0.001 0.001 (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) Farm size/100 -0.002 -0.002 0.002 0.002 (0.031) (0.031) (0.031) (0.031) Distance market/100 0.009 0.010 -0.009 -0.010 (0.020) (0.020) (0.020) (0.020) Used CSA * weather shock yes yes yes yes District FE yes yes yes yes 6,303 6,303 6,303 6,303 Notes: Standard errors in parentheses; *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. Dependent variables are dummies = 1 if a household is vulnerable or resilient. A household is vulnerable if poor in all the three survey waves or fell into poverty by the third wave in 2019. This corresponds to PPP, PNP, NPP and NNP in Table 1. A resilient household is one that was never poor over the three survey waves or one that escaped poverty by the third survey wave in 2019. This corresponds to NNN, PPN, PNN and NPN in Table 1. The estimation is done using a pooled probit for the 2019 panel wave. + defined as use of either minimum tillage or hybrid maize seed or inorganic fertilizer. Columns 1 and 2 differ in the sense that one includes the current season rainfall and the other includes the 30-year average rainfall. There is a similar difference between columns 3 and 4. 14 Table S6: Average partial estimates of the effects of climate exposure on vulnerability among smallholders in Zambia, instrumented Probit – separate CSA practices (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Used MT (yes =1) -0.031 -0.030 (0.019) (0.019) Used fertilizer (yes =1) 0.019 0.018 (0.014) (0.014) Used hybrid seed (yes -0.000 -0.001 =1) (0.012) (0.012) Drought risk (yes =1) 0.021 0.022 0.024 0.020 0.021 0.023 (0.019) (0.019) (0.019) (0.019) (0.018) (0.019) Flood risk (yes =1) 0.006 0.010 0.006 0.005 0.010 0.005 (0.015) (0.016) (0.016) (0.015) (0.016) (0.016) Growing seasonal 0.016** 0.015** 0.015** rainfall/100 (0.007) (0.007) (0.008) 30-year average 0.017** 0.016** 0.017** rainfall/100 (0.008) (0.008) (0.008) 30-year rainfall coeff. 0.452 0.442 0.453 0.557 0.547 0.581 variation (0.373) (0.372) (0.395) (0.376) (0.374) (0.396) Number of rainfall 0.011 0.013 0.013 0.007 0.009 0.007 stress days (0.022) (0.022) (0.022) (0.022) (0.022) (0.022) Standard precipitation -0.040 -0.037 -0.038 -0.016 -0.015 -0.012 index (0.026) (0.026) (0.026) (0.022) (0.023) (0.023) Accessed loan (yes =1) -0.074 -0.072 -0.119 -0.116 -0.113 -0.162** (0.073) (0.072) (0.077) (0.075) (0.074) (0.078) Crop diversity (yes =1) -0.011 -0.012 -0.010 -0.011 -0.012 -0.010 (0.011) (0.011) (0.011) (0.011) (0.011) (0.011) Asset index -0.038*** -0.038*** -0.037*** -0.037*** -0.037*** -0.037*** (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) Female, hh head (yes 0.030** 0.030** 0.029** 0.030** 0.030** 0.028** =1) (0.012) (0.012) (0.012) (0.012) (0.012) (0.012) Age, household head 0.020*** 0.020*** 0.019*** 0.019*** 0.019*** 0.018*** (0.004) (0.004) (0.005) (0.005) (0.005) (0.005) Education, household -0.014*** -0.014*** -0.014*** -0.014*** -0.014*** -0.015*** head (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) Dependency ratio 0.000 0.001 0.001 -0.000 -0.000 -0.000 (0.006) (0.006) (0.006) (0.006) (0.006) (0.006) Members 0 – 5 years 0.037*** 0.038*** 0.038*** 0.036*** 0.038*** 0.038*** (0.008) (0.008) (0.008) (0.008) (0.008) (0.008) 15 Members 5– 10 years 0.055*** 0.055*** 0.053*** 0.054*** 0.054*** 0.052*** (0.007) (0.007) (0.007) (0.007) (0.007) (0.007) Members 10 – 15 years 0.033*** 0.033*** 0.035*** 0.034*** 0.034*** 0.035*** (0.006) (0.006) (0.006) (0.006) (0.006) (0.006) Members 15 – 64 years 0.034*** 0.034*** 0.035*** 0.034*** 0.034*** 0.035*** (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) Members >65 years -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 (0.003) (0.003) (0.004) (0.003) (0.003) (0.004) Farm size/100 -0.008 -0.008 -0.007 -0.011 -0.010 -0.011 (0.031) (0.031) (0.031) (0.031) (0.031) (0.031) Distance market/100 0.012 0.013 0.011 0.009 0.010 0.006 (0.020) (0.020) (0.021) (0.020) (0.020) (0.021) Credit residuals 0.019 0.018 0.043 0.041 0.039 0.064* (0.038) (0.038) (0.038) (0.037) (0.037) (0.038) MT residuals -0.011 -0.019* -0.012 -0.011 -0.019* -0.012 (0.009) (0.010) (0.010) (0.009) (0.010) (0.009) Crop diversity residuals -0.024** -0.023** -0.026*** -0.024** -0.024** -0.026*** (0.009) (0.009) (0.010) (0.009) (0.009) (0.010) Used CSA * weather yes yes yes yes yes yes shock District FE yes yes yes yes yes yes Observations 6,274 6,274 6,050 6,302 6,302 6,078 Standard errors in parentheses: *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 Table S7: Average partial estimates of the effects of climate exposure on resilience among smallholders in Zambia, instrumented Probit – separate CSA practices (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Used MT (yes =1) 0.038** 0.038** (0.019) (0.019) Used fertilizer (yes =1) -0.015 -0.015 (0.014) (0.014) Used hybrid seed (yes =1) 0.004 0.004 (0.012) (0.012) Drought risk (yes =1) -0.025 -0.026 -0.026 -0.025 -0.026 -0.026 (0.019) (0.019) (0.019) (0.019) (0.019) (0.019) Flood risk (yes =1) -0.008 -0.013 -0.007 -0.008 -0.013 -0.007 (0.016) (0.016) (0.016) (0.016) (0.016) (0.016) Growing seasonal rainfall/100 -0.016** -0.015** -0.014* (0.007) (0.008) (0.008) 30-year average rainfall/100 -0.017** -0.016** -0.016** (0.008) (0.008) (0.008) 16 30-year rainfall coeff. variation -0.303 -0.239 -0.288 -0.335 -0.276 -0.323 (0.399) (0.397) (0.400) (0.397) (0.395) (0.398) Number of rainfall stress days -0.015 -0.015 -0.016 -0.016 -0.015 -0.017 (0.022) (0.022) (0.022) (0.022) (0.022) (0.022) Standard precipitation index 0.037 0.037 0.033 0.016 0.017 0.013 (0.026) (0.026) (0.027) (0.023) (0.023) (0.024) Accessed loan (yes =1) 0.082 0.081 0.103 0.082 0.081 0.103 (0.075) (0.075) (0.078) (0.075) (0.075) (0.078) Crop diversity (yes =1) 0.007 0.008 0.008 0.007 0.008 0.008 (0.011) (0.011) (0.011) (0.011) (0.011) (0.011) Asset index 0.042*** 0.042*** 0.042*** 0.042*** 0.042*** 0.042*** (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) Female, hh head (yes =1) -0.032*** -0.032*** -0.033*** -0.032*** -0.032*** -0.033*** (0.012) (0.012) (0.012) (0.012) (0.012) (0.012) Age, household head -0.019*** -0.019*** -0.019*** -0.019*** -0.019*** -0.019*** (0.005) (0.005) (0.005) (0.005) (0.005) (0.005) Education, household head 0.014*** 0.014*** 0.014*** 0.014*** 0.014*** 0.014*** (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) Dependency ratio -0.002 -0.002 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 -0.001 (0.006) (0.006) (0.007) (0.006) (0.006) (0.007) Members 0 – 5 years -0.035*** -0.036*** -0.038*** -0.035*** -0.036*** -0.038*** (0.008) (0.008) (0.008) (0.008) (0.008) (0.008) Members 5– 10 years -0.057*** -0.057*** -0.055*** -0.057*** -0.057*** -0.055*** (0.007) (0.007) (0.007) (0.007) (0.007) (0.007) Members 10 – 15 years -0.035*** -0.034*** -0.036*** -0.035*** -0.034*** -0.036*** (0.006) (0.006) (0.006) (0.006) (0.006) (0.006) Members 15 – 64 years -0.036*** -0.037*** -0.037*** -0.036*** -0.037*** -0.037*** (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) Members >65 years 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) Farm size/100 0.011 0.010 0.012 0.011 0.010 0.012 (0.032) (0.032) (0.032) (0.032) (0.032) (0.032) Distance market/100 -0.010 -0.010 -0.012 -0.011 -0.011 -0.013 (0.021) (0.021) (0.021) (0.021) (0.021) (0.021) Credit residuals -0.026 -0.025 -0.037 -0.026 -0.025 -0.037 (0.039) (0.039) (0.039) (0.039) (0.039) (0.039) MT residuals 0.007 0.015 0.008 0.007 0.015 0.008 (0.008) (0.010) (0.009) (0.008) (0.010) (0.009) Crop diversity residuals 0.018** 0.018** 0.020** 0.018** 0.018** 0.020** (0.009) (0.009) (0.009) (0.009) (0.009) (0.009) Used CSA * weather shock yes yes yes yes yes yes District FE yes yes yes yes yes yes Observations 5,948 5,948 5,841 5,948 5,948 5,841 Standard errors in parentheses: *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 17