2017
MOTORIZATION MANAGEMENT IN
ETHIOPIA
EXECUTIVE SUMMA
Roger Gorham, Olivier H
Yin Qiu, Dipan Bose, Hen
Jane Akumu, Robin Kaen
Raman Krishnan, Alina K
Fanta Kamakaté
6
Table of Acronyms
AITP African Association of Public Transportation
AMCE Automotive Manufacturing Company of Ethiopia
CBD Central Business District
CKD Complete Knock Down
CCT Conditional Cash Transfers
COP Conformity of Production
CRSP Current Retail Selling Price
DTC Diagnostic Trouble Codes
DPOS Dynamic Profile of Standards
ESC Electronic Stability Control
EASI Enable Avoid Shift Improve
ELV End of Life Vehicles
EPSE Ethiopian Petroleum Supply Enterprise
FTA Federal Transport Authority
GFUV Generalized First-Use Vehicles
GFEI Global Fuel Economy Initiative
GHG Greenhouse Gas
GDP Gross Domestic Product
HDV Heavy Duty Vehicles
I/M Inspection and Maintenance
IATP International Association of Public Transportation
CITA International Committee on Vehicle Inspections
ICCT International Council on Clean Transportation
KNPC Kuwait National Petroleum Corporation
KEBS Kenyan Bureau of Standards
KADRA Korean Automobile Dismantlement and Recycling Association
KARCO Korean Automotive Recycling Cooperative
LDV Light duty vehicle
MSFUV Market-Specific First-Use Vehicles
1
MVIMS Motor Vehicle Information Management System
NTSB National Transportation Safety Bureau
NZTA New Zealand Transport Agency
NMHC Non-methane Hydrocarbon
OBD On-Board Diagnostics
OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
OEM Original Equipment Manufacturers
NOx Oxides of Nitrogen
SOx Oxides of Sulfur
PM Particulate Matter
PPM Parts per Million
PEMS Portable Emissions Monitoring System
PPP Public Private Partnership
PSV Public Service Vehicles
SHV Second-hand vehicles
SCR Selective Catalytic Reduction
SUV Sport Utility Vehicles
SDG Sustainable Development Goals
TVM Tonne-Value Movement
TIMS Transportation Information Management System
TA Type Approval
TRANSIP Transportation Systems Improvement Project
UAE United Arab Emirates
UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for Europe
VAT Value Added Tax
VIMM Vehicle Inspection Management Module
VKT Vehicle Kilometers Traveled
2
Acknowledgements
This report was written by a team from the World Bank and outside experts, who included Roger
Gorham, Olivier Hartmann, Yin Qiu, Dipan Bose, Henry Kamau, Jane Akumu, Robin Kaenzig,
Raman Krishnan, Alina Kelly, and Fanta Kamakaté. The team needs to thank a broad range of
individuals for valuable advice and guidance during the preparation and finalization of the work,
including Cecilia Briceño-Garmendia, John Rogers, James Markland, Jean Francois Arvis,
Andrew Goodland, Helene Carlsson Rex, Josphat Sasia, Rajesh Rohatgi, Haile Adamtei, and
Georges Darido. The team is particularly grateful to external reviewers who provided
substantive comments at key points during the work, particularly Lew Fulton of the Institute for
Transportation Studies at University of California at Davis, and Mr. Kim Seong-Yeon of the
Korean Transport Safety Authority. Finally, the team is grateful to the Korean Government, who
funded this work through the Korean Green Growth Trust Fund under the leadership of Ms. Eun
Joo Yi.
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Introduction
The speed with which Africa is expected to motorize over the next few decades is both a
challenge and an opportunity. While African vehicle fleets reflect that the continent has served
as a “dumping ground” for old, obsolete vehicles from much of the rest of the world, the speed of
growth of the fleet means that those vehicles will be only a small proportion of the vehicle fleet,
even if they remain in use for an excessively long period of time compared to their use in the
global North. Governments have a window of opportunity now, therefore, to effect
motorization policies that can shape the motor vehicle fleet in Africa for decades.
But there is no template from other world regions about how to do so effectively, since
motor vehicle manufacturing (and even assembly), and African purchasing power lag
behind other world regions. Importation of second-hand vehicles is likely to remain the main
driver of motorization for many years to come, and there are few models from which to draw
about how to manage the motorization process in such circumstances. In the absence of
established templates, new modalities for managing motor vehicles needs to be developed.
Current vehicle fleet in Ethiopia
Ethiopia’s vehicle fleet remains relatively small, and motorization development largely
depends on the imports of second-hand vehicles. Ethiopia is the fastest growing economy in
Africa in 2015 and hosts the second largest population in the continent. Its motorization rate,
however, is among the lowest in the world, only 6 vehicles were owned per 1,000 population by
2016. The national vehicle population is around 552,000 by 2015. About 37 per cent are freight
vehicles and 63 per cent are passenger vehicles, including 36 per cent of cars, 16 per cent of
motorcycles and 11 per cent of buses and minibuses. Without domestic automobile
manufacturing, Ethiopia has been importing all types of vehicles from other developed regions
routed through the port of Djibouti.
The in-use vehicle fleet in Ethiopia is fairly old (over 14 years old on average). Without age
or performance filter applied to importation, the high tax rates and scarcity of forex play a
strong role in shaping the market, de facto encouraging the imports of obsolete vehicles and
an extended in-service life. Newly registered vehicles are heavily skewed to used cars (85 per
cent) as a consequence of unusually high taxation on new imported vehicles. The high level of
taxation tends to favor import of old cars (with lower retail value, leading to lower overall
taxation). Some imported vehicles face a markup of 100 to 200 percent from taxes alone.
Affordability of private cars is geared towards 10-15 years old cars. The very high acquisition
cost of imported vehicles and the lack of hard currency not only restrict people’s affordability of
newer vehicles, but also incentivize the extended in-service life of in-use vehicles.
Management of in-use vehicles is a growing problem. Ethiopia has undertaken proactive
measures for annual inspection of safety performance mandated for all private and commercial
vehicles, while the inspection of vehicular pollution emissions is voluntary and inadequate,
mostly serving as a diagnostic service to indicate other engine problems rather than for its own
sake. More challenging for Ethiopia than the inspection will be the maintenance part to meet the
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growing complexity and stringent requirements, limited by the automotive mechanics’ know-
how. In addition, the vehicle registration and inspection records are still in transition from paper-
based to an electronic integrated database, making it difficult for monitoring the fleet.
Scope of integrated motorization management
Motorization management is the process of shaping, through public policies and programs,
the profile, quality and quantity of the motor vehicle fleet as motorization occurs. Countries
urbanize and per capita GDP grows with development, which makes motorization an inevitable
process, but the extent, nature, and trajectory of motorization can be very different depending on
a range of public policy approaches to not only motorization, but transport development
generally. Motorization management is the explicit process of shaping vehicle fleets as
motorization occurs, but the objective is broader, to shape the mix of vehicle kilometers traveled
in a country, which also involves how vehicles are used.
Three orientations define the building blocks of a motorization management program. The
first addresses policy outcomes: what are the intended objectives of a given motorization
management approach? These might include: minimizing tailpipe emissions (making vehicles
cleaner); minimizing fossil fuel consumption and dependence; minimizing motor-vehicle related
fatalities and serious injuries associated with sub-standard vehicles and poor maintenance
practices (making vehicles safer); keeping growth of overall vehicle fleet in line with national
and metropolitan aspirations and intended quantity and quality of infrastructure investment
(taming the rampant growth of the fleet); and managing the fiscal impact accompanying the
motorization process (keeping the budget balanced). A second orientation relates to the key
inflection points that can be considered for policy interventions, taking into account the political
economy of influencing actors at different stages in the vehicle acquisition and use lifecycle.
These can include entry vehicles – influencing the mix of vehicles before they become part of the
vehicle fleet in Ethiopia; in-use vehicles – influencing how vehicles are maintained; obsolescent
vehicles – influencing how vehicles are used as they age, and how and when they are disposed
of; and general fiscal and policy environment – influencing the overall environment that affects
the economics of vehicle ownership and use. Finally, the third orientation relates to the
implementation viability of a set of responses or actions, and is the aspect of the assistance the
team considered the most important. This refers primarily to the programmatic viability of any
actions contemplated (including institutional and regulatory capacity to undertake action), but
also to the ways in which policies mutually support or work at cross-purposes with each other.
The value addition of this technical assistance is primarily in focusing on the latter
orientation: implementation viability. The motorization management program we recommend
focuses on the programs needed to implement policies, and the scope of policy formulation
needed in order to have a comprehensive program whose individual parts of mutually
reinforcing. We do discuss specific policies that we believe might be viable in Ethiopia, but
more as examples of the scope we advocate for, and as plausible policies to model, rather than as
specific recommendations.
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Implementation programs to effect motorization management
Implementation programs can be developed even before the policies they are meant to
implement. In identifying the reasons that many developing countries struggle to put in place
effective measures for dealing with motorization, the team has concluded that one of the key
challenges is that implementation mechanisms are often defined ad-hoc, in response to the need
to implement one or more specific policies. We believe that, on the contrary, the implementation
programs should be defined either simultaneously with, or even before, the specific policies.
That is, developing countries with historically weak implementation capacity and strong
dependence on imports of second-hand vehicles for fleet growth, should first identify which
implementation programs could realistically be made operational, and then select a set of policies
in line with those realities, trying to address as many of the principles of effective motorization
management discussed earlier as possible.
The team has identified 12 such implementation programs which we believe would form a
standard part of a motorization management implementation menu, and which would support
compliance with most key measures that might be developed based on the above principles. A
summary table of particular implementation programs recommended for Ethiopia is included in
Table 1 in the Annex of this executive summary. More discussion and details can be found in
Chapter IV of the main report. These implementation programs are introduced as follows:
Program 1: Motor Vehicle Information Management System (MVIMS) to develops and
integrates databases of registration, licensing and enforcement in a standardized, electronic and
regularly-maintained manner. The VIMM will consist of a collection of digital components that
would enable the capture, tracking, analysis, and dissemination of data related to vehicular
inspections. The VIMM will ensure timely and accurate data on vehicle inspections is captured
and maintained in a centralized repository. The primary objective of VIMM is to help relevant
stakeholders continuously manage the inspection process throughout the vehicle's lifetime thus
ensuring maximum compliance with roadworthiness, road safety, and environmental standards.
It should also integrate seamlessly with the other modules in the MVIMS and contribute to
enhancing the efficiency of the inspection process.
Program 2: Public engagement to sensitize citizens at all levels of the motor vehicle
lifecycle. Public awareness of any product, program, project, or procedural change is created
through communication, which can be virtually anything that describes, explains, or otherwise
discusses or engages the motorization management program with the public. The point of
strategic communication is to influence and control the conversation that will inevitably take
place about motorization management – a conversation that will happen whether it is planned or
not. A good communications strategy can mitigate risk that misinformation is being spread, and
improve outcomes related to the program itself. Key elements of an effective communications
strategy include understanding stakeholders, information packaging, marketing strategy,
branding, and behavior nudging. It is particularly important that communications be taken
seriously and managed professionally from the early stages of adoption of a motorization
management program.
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Program 3: Dynamic Profile of Standards (DPOS) of tailpipe emissions and fuel quality
standards over 10 year time frame. A DPOS is a blueprint for industry and stakeholders about
how regulatory standards for incremental vehicles will change over a multi-year time frame, for
example, over a decade. The objective is to avoid repetitive ad-hoc processes to tighten
regulations, and send clear signals to the import and manufacturing / assembly industries so that
they can make adjustments. There are a few distinct characteristics for establishing a DPOS for
vehicle emissions and fuel quality in import-reliant countries such as Ethiopia:
DPOS is not intended to address in-use vehicles.
DPOS is meant to apply to all entry vehicles, not only "new" vehicles.
DPOS is not about technology-forcing, but rather usage of existing technologies.
But there must still be buy-in from OEMs.
Ratcheting up of standards must realistically reflect the capacities of the maintenance and
repair industries and availability of parts.
Surveillance and verification programs may not need to be an integral part of DPOS
enforcement.
Program 4: DPOS for vehicle safety and fuel economy for entry vehicles over 10 -year time
frame. As used here particularly with respect to fuel economy, the notion of a "standard" need
not reflect a regulatory standard, but rather an objective toward which a system of incentives
could be devised to orient the incoming fleet. There are numerous technical pathways to reduce
average car fuel intensity, ranging from changing the size and weight mix of cars entering the
fleet, to improving the efficiency of the engine and drive train, to increasing the proportion of
electric drive vehicles in the fleet, but these pathways will have implications for vehicle safety,
especially crash performance of the vehicle. As recommended in the 2014 GFEI study, fiscal
incentives can be an effective way of incentivizing these changes, but which methods the market
chooses and in which proportions can have important implications for vehicle safety, not only for
the vehicle occupants, but also for other road users, particularly vulnerable ones such as
pedestrians and cyclists. For these reasons, identification of DPOS for fuel economy and vehicle
safety should be part of the same process. Similar improvements in crashworthiness standards,
however, have not been articulated. Crashworthiness test standards are mainly based on crash-
testing of a vehicle during the preproduction phase to determine the crashworthiness
performance or ability to mitigate the severity of injury for an occupant or an outside road-user
during a crash. In addition to crash test performance, this may also include presence of certain
safety features, such as seat-belt system, airbags and Electronic Stability Control.
Program 5: Import certification process for second-hand and first-use vehicle imports, as
well as for knock down kits for local assembly. In addition to establishing a DPOS for the
main vehicle types with respect to both emissions and road safety / fuel economy, there is also a
need to establish a compliance process to ensure that the profile of incremental vehicles are
actually conforming to that DPOS. The immediate need for Ethiopia is to establish that process
for SHVs, GFUVs, and CKDs in particular. This would meet an immediate need of reducing the
risk of ineligible vehicles arriving at the import country and unnecessary financial burden of risk
7
passed on to the end-consumer. Compliance mechanisms for MSFUVs can be developed over
time if and when their market share grows.
Program 6: Development, certification and oversight and / or operation of Inspection and
Maintenance (IM) facilities. IM is a set of requirements designed to ensure that in-use vehicles
are properly maintained and kept in good working order by vehicle owners or leaseholders. The
goal of a good IM program for emissions is not to verify whether an in-use vehicle is meeting an
emission standard, but rather to check whether it is exceeding a certain threshold. IM programs
identify the dirtiest and / or hazardous vehicles, in order to get those vehicles repaired or taken
out of circulation.
Program 7: National protocols for visual and instrumented enforcement. To complement
I/M programs and emphasis on the social contract of motor vehicle use, on-road enforcement
programs are critical. Visual enforcement can be quite effective, provided that the protocols for
their use are well developed and implemented. Spot-checking programs are carried out by
specially trained squads of government officials (sometimes from different levels of government
collaboratively) while public spotter programs utilize social media to enable the general public to
assist authorities in identifying bad vehicles / operators. Both aim to identify vehicles that
should be required to undergo further testing, thereby increasing the cost of non-compliance with
in-use vehicle standards of maintenance for the vehicle owner / operator. Instrumented
enforcement can actually test the vehicles on the roadside, and might include loaded and
unloaded stationary tests, in-motion testing through remote sensing or other techniques, or
random checks of Onboard Diagnostics systems (OBD).
Program 8: Mechanics' training and certification program. The adoption of lower sulfur
levels of diesel and gasoline will substantially change the composition of vehicles being
imported into the country going forward. These vehicles will have increasingly complex engines
with unfamiliar configurations, computer-controlled ignition and cycle timing, and advanced
exhaust after-treatment technologies. More sophisticated machinery will be required to be used
by mechanics in both inspection and maintenance practices in order to make sure all functions
work as intended. Besides, as a key pillar to secure the success of implementing more stringent
inspections and maintenance programs, it is important to define the training and certification
programs provided to the mechanics to ensure and expand the capacity of current inspection
centers and for the maintenance practice outside the structure of major OEMs.
Program 9: Quality assurance program for genuine vehicle parts used in maintenance
workshops. From the public safety and health perspective, two issues are of importance with
respect to quality of spare parts. First is the development and enforcement of quality controls for
non-OEM-branded industry producing spare parts. The second is the need to control and
minimize the use of counterfeit vehicle parts altogether, which is a worldwide and international
problem.
Program 10: Regulatory standard for vehicle body construction and modification. A key
issue for vehicle safety standards is adherence to regulatory standards pertaining to vehicle body
8
structure and modifications. This is particularly important to structural changes or modifications
that compromise the technical performance of the vehicle both in terms of crashworthiness and
roadworthiness performance. Compliance to vehicle body standards and modifications apply to
all categories of vehicles but particularly important for high occupancy vehicles (transit vehicles
such as mini buses) and heavy goods vehicles. While such transit vehicles in general have lower
performance standards in terms of occupant protection (seat belts, airbags etc.) compared to
private-owned vehicles, further compromise through structural changes can have disastrous
effects on injury outcome even in less severe crashes (especially for mini-buses in African
countries). At the same time, given the vehicle body inspection of public transit vehicles is
enforced in much lesser degree, the incentive for vehicle fleet managers to modify vehicles to
either increase occupancy or load carrying capacity is widely seen in many developing countries.
Program 11: Fuel quality testing regime and protocol at retail. There are two reasons to
include fuel quality testing in an overall program of motorization management. The first and
more traditional reason is to ensure that fuel is not being adulterated, for example, through the
deliberate dilution with less costly fuels. The second is to test for introduction of impurities,
including water, during the transport or storage of fuels. Both deliberate adulteration and
infiltration of impurities can substantially degrade vehicle performance, particularly where
sophisticated emissions control equipment are involved.
Program 12: End-of-Life Vehicles (ELV) program. Management of the ELV process is a
growing concern around the world, but is particularly important for developing countries like
Ethiopia, because unlike in the developed world, almost 100 percent of the vehicles present in
the country will one day be ELVs. Worldwide, management of ELVs has been driven by two
primary concerns, both of which are relevant for developing countries: the need to manage
hazardous substances, and the need to reduce landfill space, especially for countries such as
Japan and Korea, with space constraints. In addition, for developing countries, ELV
management can provide potential labor-creation and / or labor formalization opportunities,
particularly for newly urbanized, low-income workers.
Principles to ensure comprehensiveness and mutual
reinforcement of motorization management policies and
measures.
The team has identified nine common principles which define very effective motorization
management approaches, on the basis of the work with the two pilot countries, Ethiopia and
Kenya, and familiarity with best practices elsewhere, the team has identified 9 common
principles which define very effective motorization management approaches. Adherence to any
of these principles is good practice, but in a truly comprehensive approach, all nine would be
addressed. The precise combination of policies to address these principles, of course, is
necessarily a contextual and political decision. The specific policies (Pillar II) to put in place the
principles will different from country to country, but we believe that the most effective countries
will utilize some combination of all the principles. A summary of the particular policies
recommended for Ethiopia corresponding to the nine principles is included in Table 2 in the
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Annex of this executive summary. More discussion and details can be found in Chapter V of the
main report. The nine principles are shown in Figure 1 below:
• Design motorization management in line with broad
Design transport policy approaches1
• Restrict entry vehicles by emissions and crash-worthiness
Restrict criteria
• Incentivize entry vehicles for better fuel economy,
Incentivize alternative fuels/propulsion use, and advanced crash
avoidance technology
Visualize • Visualize unintended consequences and spillover effects2
Emphasize • Emphasize the social contract3
Limit • Limit usage of vehicles as they degrade
• Educate drivers about lifecycle costs and vehicle impacts at
Educate the point of sale
Suppress • Suppress implicit subsidies4
Substantiate • Substantiate impacts5
Figure 1. Nine Principles of Motorization Management
Notes: 1 Motorization management will not succeed if isolated from other transport policy approaches. Motorization
management should be seen as one component of, not a substitute for, good transport policy.
2
Common spillover effects in the transport sector include the driving rebound (to a reduction in real or
perceived prices), fuel diversion (where tax rates are not equal), and land-price escalation (where accessibility
improves as a result of public investments).
3
Emphasize the social contract at the key points of interaction with motorists, vehicle owners and drivers.
4
Suppress implicit subsidies to car and motorcycle use that include fuel subsidies (not relevant in Ethiopia),
use of hypothecated fuel taxes for road capacity expansion, free or underpriced parking, and disparities in
price approaches between public and private transport.
5
Substantiate and improve on impacts of motorization management policies through establishment of
capacity for assessment, evaluation and research.
Modelling potential benefits achieved by selected policy scenarios
Whilst not all of the recommended motorization measures are able to be quantitatively assessed
in terms of likely impacts, the modeling of potential impacts of selected motorization
management measures that are recommended in the main report highlight the positive impact
that can be achieved in terms of constraining vehicle fleet growth, altering purchasing patterns
and thus generating a more economically and environmentally appropriate vehicle stock, and in
doing so reduce the national fuel consumption and emissions generated by the transport sector.
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Size of the vehicle fleet:
- Policies which impact on the amount of vehicle activity resulting from either
modal choice or travel cost changes are also expected to have a second-order
impact on demand for vehicles. This is modelled with an elasticity of 0.5 with
respect to vehicle kms. Accordingly, these measures which include parking
policy and improved mass-transit should result in suppression of the rate of
growth in the private vehicle fleet. The combined impact is modelled to lead to a
reduction of 6 percent in the car fleet, amounting to over 137,000 fewer vehicles
by 2040.
Composition and characteristics of the vehicle fleet:
- The composition and characteristics of the vehicle fleet are projected to change
from the business as usual scenario in response to the introduction of vehicle
standards and the fiscal measures encouraging the purchase of more efficient
vehicles.
Fuel requirements and greenhouse gas emissions:
- Private car fuel consumption is estimated to fall by 6 percent against BAU
baseline resulting in economic benefits of reduced fuel requirement and reduced
emissions.
- Overall fuel requirement is modelled to fall by 4 percent (reflecting the fact that
goods vehicles also make up an important component of fuel consumption). This
leads to a commensurate reduction in GHG emissions, which amount to a total
saving of nearly 23 MtCO2e in the period 2020-2040.
Local air pollution
- The emissions standards and fiscal incentives to purchase more efficient vehicles
result in the more rapid adoption of newer and more efficient vehicle
technologies. This has a significant impact in particular on the levels of local air
pollutants generated by the transport sector, by comparison with the business as
usual scenario. Particulate matter (PMx) emissions fall by an estimated 33
percent by 2030, whilst nitrous oxide (NOx) emissions fall by 9 percent.
In addition to the above benefits, motorization management strategy which combines the range
of policies identified can be expected to lead to wider benefits including reduced congestion,
safety and increased city livability which are not modelled but which are recognized to have
significant economic and social value.
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Annex. Summary of policy considerations and implementation program recommendations
for Ethiopia
Table 1. Summary of implementation programs recommended for Ethiopia
Implementation program Implementation considerations for Ethiopia
1.MVIMS MVIMS under development under TRANSIP program.
Particular need, however, to develop a Vehicle Inspection
Management Module (VIMM). This should probably be
led by FTA (vehicle inspection division?) but merits
further discussion.
2. Public engagement program to Ensure inclusion of communications specialists in all
sensitize citizens at all levels of the motor project teams
vehicle lifecycle
Develop meaningful and recognizable brand for
motorization management program
3. DPOS for entry vehicles for vehicle EPA probably best placed to take lead in DPOS
emissions and corresponding fuel quality development
Limit fuel sulfur levels to 50 PPM from 2019 or as soon
as possible
Limited value in pushing beyond Euro IV in 10-year
projection
Initiate dialogue with international OEMs to cultivate
their buy-in to the DPOS, and understand what
assurances they will need to warrant vehicles under
DPOS
Consider technology substitution pathways via
electrification of fleets in major cities / electric vehicles
w/ solar in rural areas
4. DPOS for entry vehicles for vehicle FTA probably best placed to take lead in DPOS
safety and fuel economy development
Consider adherence to UNECE WP29
5. Import certification process for SHVs, Consider knowledge exchanges with New Zealand or
GFUVs, and CKDs other places to understand process
Consider developing relationship with International
Committee on Vehicle Inspections (CITA) to help
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Implementation program Implementation considerations for Ethiopia
develop import certification process further.
Engage early with motor vehicle import industry on this
issue, and strengthen if needed, in order to gain
agreement on institutional structures, norms, testing
regime, and agreed practices for Entry Certifiers
Develop mechanism for licensing and supervising Entry
Certifiers. Institutional home for this function (FTA?)
should develop and empower unit responsible
Undertake comprehensive review of applicable vehicle
standards related to emissions, safety, and physical
compliance of key source countries, to identify
equivalencies consistent with DPOS
6. Development, certification and Consider developing centralized test-only facilities for
oversight and / or operation of I/M Addis Ababa and metropolitan Oromia; decentralized
centers (small test and repair) facilities would still be standard in
smaller metro areas, but with the intention of reducing
the role as motorization develops.
7. National protocols for visual and Consider spot-checking programs by specially trained
instrumented enforcement squads of government officials together with public
spotter programs by utilizing social media to assist
authorities in identifying bad vehicles or operators
Consider instrumented enforcement such as stationary
tests, in-motion tests (e.g. remote sensing) or random
checks of OBD
8. Mechanics' training and certification Consider utilizing and expanding the infrastructure of
program existing industry, bringing OEMs to the dialogue to
facilitate training for the industry as a whole
9. Quality assurance program for Emphasize the registration of IP rights for protection
genuine vehicle parts used in with the OEM filling of patents and trademarks
maintenance shops
Take advantage of cost-effective anti-counterfeiting
technologies
10. Regulatory standard development In-depth crash investigation of high-occupancy vehicles
and implementation for vehicle body
Engagement with the auto body-builders
13
Implementation program Implementation considerations for Ethiopia
construction and modification Public awareness on safety of passenger vehicles
11. Develop fuel quality testing regime Establish in-house capacity to enforce fuel standards
and protocol
Secure funding to conduct fuel testing and manage the
program
Seek authority to impose non-compliance fines
Secure industry cooperation for mandatory or voluntary
self-testing and mandatory reporting
12. End-of-Life Vehicles (ELVs) Establish association of car scrappers and work to
management professionalize
Develop standard policies for management of hazardous
materials from ELVs, especially batteries, CFCs /
HCFCs, and Automotive fluids
Standardize approaches to vehicle dismantlement, and
look for ways to extend dismantlement beyond current
practice, particularly looking for ways to develop
markets that do not currently exist
Consider developing and investing in motor vehicle ELV
facility along new Addis Djibouti standard gauge line in
Afar, with early target market being Addis metropolitan
area
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Table 2. Summary of policies considered for Ethiopia
Plausible policies Principles Outcomes Points of Prerequisite implementation programs Benefits Costs Political
Intervention (including No.) economy
Develop mass transit in Design Tailpipe In-use vehicles 2. Public engagement program to sensitize Increased urban Cost of Financing is an
Addis Ababa and emission citizens of the motor vehicle lifecycle mobility, compliance issue
surrounding Oromia 7. National protocols for visual and accessibility,
zone, and facilitate Fuel instrumented enforcement efficiency and
public transport economy environmental
improvements in Addis benefits
Ababa and many Vehicle
secondary cities safety
Rate of
vehicle fleet
growth
Codify in law fuel sulfur Restrict Tailpipe Refined fuel 3. DPOS for vehicle emissions and fuel Enabling imports Cost of Fuel quality is
limits from 2019 emission imports quality of Euro III compliance; under control
5. Import certification process for SHVs, vehicles with a pathway
GFUVs and CKDs Incremental to reduce
11. Fuel quality testing regime and fuel cost per sulfur levels;
protocols at retail liter
2. Public engagement program to sensitize Forex shortage
citizens of the motor vehicle lifecycle and volatility
present
challenge in
compliance
Require Euro III Restrict Tailpipe Entry vehicles 3. DPOS for vehicle emissions and fuel Reduced ambient Cost of Government
equivalent from 2020, emission quality air pollution; compliance interested with
but prepare for 5. Import certification process for SHVs, Improved fuel assistance;
leapfrogging to Euro IV Fuel GFUVs and CKDs efficiency
and possibly alternative economy 6. Development, certification and Critical to
propulsion technologies oversight and / or operation of I/M centers involve private
in preparation of a DPOS 8. Mechanics' training and certification sector of
program GFUVs,
15
Plausible policies Principles Outcomes Points of Prerequisite implementation programs Benefits Costs Political
Intervention (including No.) economy
9. Quality assurance program for vehicle MSFUVs and
parts CKDs in
10. Regulatory standard for vehicle body discussion to
construction and modification alleviate
11. Fuel quality testing regime and concerns about
protocols at retail warranty on
2. Public engagement program to sensitize engines due to
citizens of the motor vehicle lifecycle fuel quality
1. MVIMS that develops and integrates
databases of registration, licensing and
enforcement
Require compliance with Restrict Vehicle Entry vehicles 4. DPOS for vehicle safety and fuel Reduced traffic Cost of Counterparts
UN regulation for safety economy fatalities and compliance recognize
crashworthiness 5. Import certification process for SHVs, serious injuries public policy
requirements from 2018 GFUVs and CKDs objective,
for all SHVs and 2. Public engagement program to sensitize indicate would
GFUVs, and from 2019 citizens of the motor vehicle lifecycle require
for all CKDs and 6. Development, certification and international
MSFUVs oversight and / or operation of I/M centers technical
8. Mechanics' training and certification assistance;
program
9. Quality assurance program for vehicle also express
parts concerns about
10. Regulatory standard for vehicle body local capacity
construction and modification to verify
1. MVIMS that develops and integrates compliance
databases of registration, licensing and with proposed
enforcement standards
Require compliance with Restrict Vehicle Entry vehicles 4. DPOS for vehicle safety and fuel Reduced traffic Cost of Counterparts
UN regulation for crash- safety economy accidents, traffic compliance recognize
avoidance requirements 5. Import certification process for SHVs, fatalities and public policy
for all entry vehicles by GFUVs and CKDs serious injuries objective,
6. Development, certification and indicate would
16
Plausible policies Principles Outcomes Points of Prerequisite implementation programs Benefits Costs Political
Intervention (including No.) economy
2020 oversight and / or operation of I/M centers require
2. Public engagement program to sensitize international
citizens of the motor vehicle lifecycle technical
8. Mechanics' training and certification assistance to
program effect.
9. Quality assurance program for vehicle
parts
10. Regulatory standard for vehicle body
construction and modification
1. MVIMS that develops and integrates
databases of registration, licensing and
enforcement
Consider CO2- based Incentivize Fuel Entry vehicles 5. Import certification process for SHVs, Increased fuel Cost of Would it be
excise tax and / or CO2- economy GFUVs and CKDs economy compliance tax neutral (i.e.
based annual registration 1. MVIMS that develops and integrates performance in current VAT +
fees as an alternative to databases of registration, licensing and the fleet Duties
excise duties or VAT enforcement replaced by
2. Public engagement program to sensitize that?). If not,
citizens of the motor vehicle lifecycle possible
reluctance
from Finance /
Treasury
Equalize the tax rates Visualize Tailpipe Fiscal and 11.Fuel quality testing regime and Improved fuel Cost of Fuel
among gasoline, diesel emission policy protocols at retail quality that compliance adulteration is
and kerosene, and use environment enabling the no longer
ICT-enabled targeted imports of Euro critical since
subsidies program to III vehicles; tax rates
support low-income among
households to purchase Reduced leakage kerosene/diese
fuel for cooking of public resource l/gasoline are
used for social equalized;
subsidies
Still important
17
Plausible policies Principles Outcomes Points of Prerequisite implementation programs Benefits Costs Political
Intervention (including No.) economy
to develop fuel
quality
assurance
program.
Prioritize Emphasize Tailpipe In-use vehicles 2.Public engagement program to sensitize Improve level of Cost of Important and
communications and emission citizens of the motor vehicle lifecycle acceptance and compliance cross-cutting,
public messaging as a 1.MVIMS that develops and integrates compliance by should discuss
core component of Fuel databases of registration, licensing and general public possible
motorization economy enforcement channels to
management reach out to
Vehicle general public;
safety
The tracking
Rate of information of
vehicle fleet vehicles before
growth and after
import is
highlighted in
framing key
messages
Use education, Emphasize Tailpipe In-use vehicles 7. National protocols for visual and Improve Cost of Same as above
conventional, and social emission instrumented enforcement compliance and compliance
media to create 2. Public engagement program to sensitize enforcement of
awareness around the Fuel citizens of the motor vehicle lifecycle motorization
concept of a social economy measures
contract associated with
motor vehicle Vehicle
ownership, use, and safety
enforcement
Rate of fleet
growth
18
Plausible policies Principles Outcomes Points of Prerequisite implementation programs Benefits Costs Political
Intervention (including No.) economy
Facilitate citizen Emphasize Tailpipe In-use vehicles 7. National protocols for visual and Improve Cost of Same as above
engagement in emission instrumented enforcement effectiveness of compliance
identifying vehicles or 2. Public engagement program to sensitize enforcement
behavior which appear to Fuel citizens of the motor vehicle lifecycle measures
defy the social contract, economy 1. MVIMS that develops and integrates
and harmonize protocols databases of registration, licensing and
and training methods to Vehicle enforcement
capacitate police and safety
other official
enforcement agencies to
successfully play their
role in ensuring
compliance
Define obligations of Emphasize Tailpipe In-use vehicles 2. Public engagement program to sensitize Keep track of the Cost of Need to make
owners for re- emission citizens of the motor vehicle lifecycle fleet size and the compliance sure the
registration and 1. MVIMS that develops and integrates in-use fleet process is
annual/bi-annual vehicle Fuel databases of registration, licensing and characteristics; simple and
inspection and economy enforcement painless for
maintenance 7. National protocols for visual and Encourage the vehicle
Vehicle instrumented enforcement maintenance of owners,
safety 6. Development, certification and in-use fleet otherwise,
oversight and / or operation of I/M centers quality in there will be
Rate of 10. Regulatory standard for vehicle body pollution fraud to just
vehicle fleet construction and modification emission, fuel avoid the
growth 8. Mechanics' training and certification economy and trouble
program safety
performance
Consider developing Limit Tailpipe End-of-life 1. MVIMS that develops and integrates Improved/ Cost of Potential
performance-based and emission vehicles databases of registration, licensing and maintained level program opposition
jurisdiction-based enforcement of in-use vehicle development, from minibus
conditions of registration Fuel 12. ELVs programs to protect the performance in compliance taxi operators
environment and minimize landfill pollution
19
Plausible policies Principles Outcomes Points of Prerequisite implementation programs Benefits Costs Political
Intervention (including No.) economy
economy requirements emission, fuel and owners
7. National protocols for visual and economy and
Vehicle instrumented enforcement safety
safety 6. Development, certification and
oversight and / or operation of I/M centers
Rate of 8. Mechanics' training and certification
vehicle fleet program
growth 10. Regulatory standard for vehicle body
construction and modification
Design and introduce Educate Fuel Entry vehicles 4. DPOS for vehicle safety and fuel Improved fuel Cost of Government
vehicle labeling to reveal economy economy economy of the compliance interested with
vehicle fuel economy 5. Import certification process for SHVs, fleet; Enabling assistance
information for entry GFUVs, and CKDs behavior change
vehicles (MSFUV, CKD, 1. MVIMS that develops and integrates in purchasing fuel
SHV and GFUV) based databases of registration, licensing and efficient vehicles
on officially established enforcement
levels at import 2. Public engagement program to sensitize
certification citizens of the motor vehicle lifecycle
Establish publicly Educate Fuel Entry vehicles 1. MVIMS that develops and integrates Increased Cost of Ethiopia
searchable databases of economy databases of registration, licensing and transparency of database currently has
vehicle history and enforcement vehicle development; no entry filter;
estimated fuel economy 2. Public engagement program to sensitize information; cost of it’s uncertain
based on VIN numbers, citizens of the motor vehicle lifecycle transition whether source
to enable second-hand Enabling behavior during market would
vehicle purchase change in database be happy with
decisions purchasing fuel update more
efficient vehicles transparency
Develop comprehensive Suppress Rate of fleet Fiscal and 1.MVIMS that develops and integrates Remove Increase Expect drivers
parking pricing programs growth policy databases of registration, licensing and incentives for variable cost to violently
in and around all major environment enforcement excessive vehicle of vehicle use react
cities, especially Addis 7.National protocols for visual and use in urban area; in urban area
Ababa, covering on- instrumented enforcement
20
Plausible policies Principles Outcomes Points of Prerequisite implementation programs Benefits Costs Political
Intervention (including No.) economy
street and off-street support
parking investments in
public transport
infrastructure;
relieve congestion
and reduce
emission
Establish motorization Substantiat Tailpipe In-use vehicles 1.MVIMS that develops and integrates Strengthened Cost of Government
observatory based in a e emission databases of registration, licensing and research, compliance and university
major university in enforcement monitoring and interested with
Ethiopia Fuel assessment assistance
economy capacity;
Vehicle Educate younger
safety generations for
motorization
Rate of management and
vehicle fleet nurture human
growth capital
21