Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain Samik Adhikari, Michael Clemens, Helen Dempster, and Nkechi Linda Ekeator © 2021 The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA. Telephone: +1 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org. © 2021 Center for Global Development (CGD) 2055 L Street NW, Washington, DC 20036, USA. Telephone: +1 202-416-4000; Internet: www.cgdev.org. Some rights reserved — This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank and the Center for Global Development (CGD) with external contributions. CGD or The World Bank do not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of CGD or The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. 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Contents Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . viii Acronyms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 The Innovation: A Mutually Beneficial Migration Agreement, or The Global Skill Partnership model . . . . . . . . . 6 Applying the Innovation: Developing New Migration Partnerships in Health Care, Construction, and ICT between Nigeria and Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Why Now? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Section 1: The Opportunity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Section 2: The Innovation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 The Global Skill Partnership . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 Choosing Sectors: A Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 Choosing Countries: A Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 Implementation of a Global Skill Partnership . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 Section 3: Case Study. A Global Skill Partnership in nursing between Nigeria and the United Kingdom (UK) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 Developing a Health Care Migration Partnership . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 Health Care in Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 Health Care in the UK . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 Implementing a Global Skill Partnership . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84 iii Section 4: Case Study. A Global Skill Partnership in Construction between Nigeria and Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 Developing a Construction Migration Partnership . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 Construction in Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 Construction in Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103 Implementing a Global Skill Partnership . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108 Section 5: Case Study. A Global Skill Partnership in Information, Communications, and Technology (ICT) between Nigeria and Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 Developing an ICT Migration Partnership . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116 ICT in Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119 Potential Destination Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 Implementing a Global Skill Partnership . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130 iv Boxes 1 Key Definitions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 2 The definitions of “skills”, “skill gaps”, “skill shortages”, and “skill mismatches” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 3 The Global Skill Partnership on Migration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 4 COVID-19 has highlighted labor shortages in key sectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 5 Female Engagement in Legal Migration Pathways . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 6 World Bank: Accessing Overseas Employment Opportunities for Moroccan Youth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 7 Germany’s Triple Win . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 8 The WHO International Platform on Health Worker Mobility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 9 The US Nursing Education Partnership Initiative (NEPI) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 10 Corvus Health . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 11 Health Education England’s Global Learners Programme . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83 12 Tropical Health Education Trust (THET) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85 13 Memorandum of Understanding between the UK and the Philippines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 14 Construction worker migration to the UK . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 15 The Nigerian College of Practical Skills and Start-Up Centre . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 16 Creating perspectives for youth in Kosovo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 17 Programme on Partnership Approaches for development oriented Vocational Training and Labour Migration (PAM) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 18 Skills Development for Youth Employment (SKYE) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112 19 IOM Belgium and Luxembourg’s, Enhancing Tunisian youth employability through professional internships in Belgian companies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118 20 Make-It in Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 21 European Pilot Project Linking Moroccan ICT Development and Labour Shortages in Flanders (PALIM) . 125 22 MATCH – Hiring African Talents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126 23 Digital Explorers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 Figures 1  A. Unemployment rates among Nigeria’s youth haves been rising steeply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 B. Unemployment rates among educated Nigerians have accelerated since 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 2  The desire of Nigerians to migrate internationally has grown in recent years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 3  A. Share of households receiving international remittances is higher in states with lower poverty rates . . 20 B. The share of Nigerians actively preparing to emigrate is lowest at low incomes, and highest at high incomes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 4  A diverse range of institutions and stakeholders participate in policy-making processes throughout the migration lifecycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 5  Percentage of international migrants in the population in Nigeria, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the world (1990-2019) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 6 Share of Nigerian international migrants in major destination regions (1990-2019) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 7  The number of asylum seekers from Sub-Saharan Africa and Nigeria to Europe peaked in 2016 and 2017 before subsiding . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 8 The share of migrants coming from Sub-Saharan Africa is increasing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 9 As legal migration from Africa decreases, irregular migration increases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 10  Sixty-two percent of Europeans are in favor of expanding skilled migration from specific poor non-European countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 11  Europe’s working-age population is projected to decline over 15 percent by 2050, while Sub-Saharan Africa’s is increasing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 12 Most shortage occupations within Europe require a medium level of skills and qualifications . . . . . . . . . . . 34 The Global Skill Partnership model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 13  v 14 A Framework for Choosing Sectors for a Global Skill Partnership . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 15 A Framework for Choosing Countries for a Global Skill Partnership . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 16 The density of nursing personnel in the world is highly uneven . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 17 Most development assistance for human resources for health goes to Sub-Saharan Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 18 Nigeria has fewer nurses/midwives and physicians per 1,000 people than many of their its peer countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 19 A. The number of nurses and midwives trained by the NMCN has increased from 2015 to 2020 . . . . . . . . . . 74 B. Most of Nigeria’s nurses are not being trained in categories where shortages exist . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 20 Nursing institutions are concentrated in the Southern regions of Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 21 The Workforce in the UK’s National Health Service . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 22 Staff shortages in the UK’s National Health Service . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 23 The number of people in the UK with a nursing qualification per head of populationis one of the lowest rates in Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 24 UK National Health Service workers of non-British origin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 25 Roles within the construction supply chain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 26 The growth of the construction sector in Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103 27 Bottleneck vacancies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 28 ICT professionals are needed in 24 EU Member States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117 29 The GDP growth in Nigeria’s ICT sector continued despite of COVID-19 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120 30 A Framework for Choosing Countries for a Global Skill Partnership . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126 Tables 1 Key National Policy Documents and Recommendations to Leverage Migration and Diaspora . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 2 How the Global Skill Partnership differs from other migration models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 3 How Global Skill Partnerships could address the opportunities explored above . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 4 Common risks and potential mitigation measures in implementing Global Skill Partnerships . . . . . . . . . . . 56 5 Profile of health care professionals in Nigeria as of 2018 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 6 Required stakeholders for a UK-Nigeria nursing Global Skill Partnership . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 7 Required stakeholders for a Germany-Nigeria construction Global Skill Partnership . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110 vi Abstract The world is currently at a crossroads. Low- and mid- Employers within these countries are facing signif- dle-income countries such as Nigeria are seeing rapid icant skill shortages, which is reducing productivity growth in their working-age populations. Yet often, and investment. Based on interviews with more than these increasingly educated and skilled young people 100 stakeholders, this report applies the Center for cannot find meaningful work within their coun- Global Development’s (CGD) Global Skill Partnership tries of origin, either because their skills are not well model to the sectors of health care, construction, aligned to the needs of employers or because there and ICT, designing partnerships between Nigeria is an absolute lack of roles available. This is creat- and select countries of destination in Europe. It out- ing emigration pressure, with many seeking oppor- lines how countries of destination looking to fill labor tunities elsewhere, leading to fears of “brain drain” shortages can provide high-quality and industry-rel- within countries of origin. At the same time, high-in- evant training to potential migrants and nonimmi- come countries such as those in Europe are seeing grants within Nigeria, increasing the global stock of rapid decreases in their working-age populations. workers and contributing to “brain gain”. vii Acknowledgments This report was prepared by a joint team from the In particular, the authors would like to thank Andrew Center for Global Development (CGD) and the World Brown (IntraHealth), Graeme Chisholm (THET), Ibadat Bank, comprising of Samik Adhikari (Economist, Dhillon (WHO), Franziska Gehrmann (GIZ), Charles World Bank), Michael Clemens (Senior Fellow, CGD), Kenny (CGD), Manjula Luthria (World Bank), Louise Helen Dempster (Assistant Director and Senior Asso- McGrath (THET), Diana Stefanescu (ICMPD), Omolola ciate for Policy Outreach, Migration, Displacement, Smaria Olarinde (Elizade University), and Cassandra and Humanitarian Policy, CGD) and Nkechi Linda Zimmer (CGD) for their valuable inputs and sugges- Ekeator (Consultant, World Bank). The report was tions throughout the preparation of this report. produced under the overall supervision and guidance of Iffath Sharif (Practice Manager, World Bank) and The overall task under which this report was pro- Shubham Chaudhuri (Country Director for Nigeria, duced received generous support from the Korea World Bank). Dhushyanth Raju (Lead Economist, World Bank Partnership Facility (KWPF) and the Rapid World Bank) and Foluso Okunmadewa (Lead Special- Social Response (RSR) trust funds. ist, World Bank) provided invaluable inputs on inter- mediate drafts. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this document are those of the authors This report was based on interviews with almost 100 and do not necessarily reflect the views of CGD, Exec- stakeholders in both Nigeria and Europe, and we thank utive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments them for their time, insights, and recommendations. that they represent. viii Acronyms APTC Australia Pacific Training Coalition BLA bilateral labor agreement CORBON Council of Registered Builders of Nigeria CPF country partnership framework CPN Computer Professionals Registration Council of Nigeria EIB European Investment Bank EU European Union EUTF European Union Trust Fund for Africa FHA Federal Housing Authority FMWH Federal Ministry of Works and Housing FOCI Federation of Construction Industry FTE full-time equivalent GAMM Global Approach to Migration and Mobility HEE Health Education England HRH Human Resources for Health ICMPD International Center for Migration Policy Development LMI labor market information MoU Memorandum of Understanding MSME micro, small, and medium enterprises MPF Mobility Partnerships Facility NEPI Nursing Education Partnership Initiative NMCN Nursing and Midwifery Council of Nigeria NOS National Occupational Standards NPHCDA National Primary Health Care Development Agency NBTE National Board for Technical Education NLSS National Living Standard Survey PEPFAR President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief PwC Pricewaterhouse Coopers RSE Recognised Seasonal Employer SMEs small and medium enterprises TVET Technical and Vocational Education and Training UHC universal health coverage UKPHS UK Partnerships for Health Systems WHO World Health Organization ix Executive Summary “This is the future. This is the kind of cooperation with which to explore potential sectors and partner that we should upscale; giving opportunities for countries for the implementation of the Global Skill young people to develop the skills that they can Partnership model, providing practical steps that gov- use both on the Moroccan labor market and in the ernments can follow. And finally, it applies this frame- European labor market.” work to three sectors and partner countries: a health European Union Commissioner for Home Affairs, care partnership between Nigeria and the UK, a con- Ylva Johannson, speaking about the PALIM project, struction partnership between Nigeria and Germany, December 2, 2020.1 and an information and communications technology (ICT) partnership with various European states. The youth population within Nigeria is rapidly increasing, but despite their high levels of educa- The Opportunity: Growing Supply tion and skills, many are struggling to find meaning- of Young People in Nigeria, and ful work opportunities at home. At the same time, Growing Employer Demand in Europe’s working-age population is declining, result- ing in employers in these countries facing large and Europe persistent skill shortages within a range of mid-skill professions. Despite the large benefits that facili- Nigeria tating migration between Nigeria and Europe could bring, and despite the overtures of both European Nigeria is Africa’s largest economy and has, until governments and the European Union, few mutually recently, benefitted from long-run economic growth beneficial migration partnerships exist. largely fueled by stable oil prices and a prudent fiscal policy. It is also on track to become the third most This report, a joint production between the World populous country in the world, adding another 100 Bank and the Center for Global Development (CGD), million new people under the age of 35 by 2040. Yet outlines how the Global Skill Partnership model could in recent years, successive economic shocks including be used to meet needs on both sides. It explores the the COVID-19 pandemic have reduced the number of growing youth unemployment rate in Nigeria, the opportunities available for this growing youth popu- increasing emigration pressure, and the structures lation. Between 2010 and 2018, 25 million Nigerians that have been set up to manage this movement. It entered the labor force; during the same period, the also explores the large skill shortages persistent within unemployment rate rose by 13 percent (Figure ES.1). Europe, its migration management relationship with This unemployment rate is affecting all Nigerians but, Africa, and the potential positive impacts of opening increasingly, it is those Nigerians who have secondary new legal migration pathways. It creates a framework and post-secondary education who are struggling most 1.  Video available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LaRquILQ9Lc Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 1 to find meaningful work. It is estimated that Nigeria Concerned about their prospects at home, Nigeria’s needs to create an additional 30 million jobs by 2030 youth are increasingly looking to other economies for to employ its growing working-age population. It is on work. A Gallup poll conducted before the 2019 presi- track to create 10 percent of that number. dential elections showed that roughly half of all Nigeri- ans said it was a “bad time” to find a job in the economy. There is also plausible evidence that Nigerian youth The proportion of youth planning to leave Nigeria are not entering the domestic labor market with permanently increased from 36 percent in 2014 to 52 industry-relevant skills. Various studies have shown percent in 2018, one of the highest levels in Sub-Sa- that 5-10 percent of businesses in Nigeria find it diffi- haran Africa. The desire to migrate is highest among cult to fill vacancies due to job applicants’ lack of skills, unemployed yet educated urban youth. qualifications, or experience. The skills development system in Nigeria faces severe constraints on staffing, This desire is translating into increased emigration facilities, and equipment, resulting in exceedingly rates from Nigeria. In absolute numbers, the number low equitable access and quality; low external effi- of international migrants from Nigeria has increased ciency due to the absence of linkages between cur- from around 450,000 in 1990 to 1.4 million in 2019. riculum design and labor market information (LMI), Yet the share of international migrants originating especially from industry and enterprises; gender from Nigeria as a proportion of the total population in inequity; shortage of well-qualified technical and 2019 (0.7 percent) is much lower than in Sub-Saharan vocational education teachers and inadequate pro- Africa (2.5 percent) and the world (3.5 percent). His- fessional development; and weak institutional capac- torically, most Nigerians migrated within Sub-Saharan ity at the federal and state levels. Africa, but the share of migrants moving to Europe (31 Figure ES.1. Unemployment rates among Nigeria’s youth haves been rising steeply Percent 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 Unemployment Rate - Youth (Nigeria Definition) Unemployment Rate - non - Youth (Nigeria Definition) Unemployment Rate - Youth (ILO Definition) Unemployment Rate - non - Youth (ILO Definition) Source: World Bank Calculations based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Note: Unemployment (ILO Definition): The unemployed comprise all persons of working age who were: (a) without work during the reference period, i.e., were not in paid employ- ment or self-employment; (b) currently available for work, i.e. were available for paid employment or self-employment during the reference period; and (c) seeking work, i.e. had taken specific steps in a specified recent period to seek paid employment or self-employment. Unemployment (National Definition): In addition to the unemployed as defined by ILO, NBS considers any individual as ‘unemployed’ who could not find work for at least 20 hours during the reference period. 2 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain percent) and North America (22 percent) has increased up to a turning point (approximately $10,000 GDP per considerably since 1990. This Nigerian diaspora remit- capita).3 Given Nigeria’s current economic growth, it is ted home US$25 billion in 2019, or 5 percent of Nige- likely that emigration pressure will continue from the ria’s GDP and fourfold what Nigeria received through country for decades to come (Figure ES.2). Nigeria could foreign direct investment and official development therefore stand to benefit from forming new migration assistance combined. partnerships that can provide safe, regular, and orderly routes for its youth to move, while ensuring such part- With limited options for legal migration outside of nerships contribute to building opportunities and fur- Africa, young Nigerians are increasingly choosing thering economic growth at home. irregular alternatives to find better work opportuni- ties overseas. Nigerians represented the largest group Figure ES.2. The share of Nigerians actively of migrants from Sub-Saharan Africa who arrived preparing to emigrate is lowest at low in Europe during the “migration crisis” of 2016 and incomes, and highest at high incomes 2017. While the number of Nigerian asylum-seekers in Probability of preparing Europe has declined in recent years, this cannot trans- for migration 0.08 late as decreased demand for migration. The number Income density 0.4 of Nigerians in both Libya and Niger, transit coun- tries for the journey to Europe, has increased, as have 0.06 returns from both countries. 0.3 0.04 These substantial outflows, both legal and irregular, 0.2 have led to narratives of “brain drain”— that is, the net export of human capital from Nigeria, leaving domes- 0.02 0.1 tic sectors vulnerable and leading richer countries to benefit from Nigeria’s investments in its own people. 0 0 Unfortunately, there is no concrete data available to 100 1,000 10,000 assess the extent, and impact, of brain drain from Household income per adult (PPP$ ln scale) Nigeria, but it is evident that many skilled professionals (particularly within the health care sector) are seeking Source: Michael Clemens and Mariapia Mendola. 2020. “Migration from Developing Countries: Selection, Income Elasticity, and Simpson’s Paradox.” Center for Global greener pastures abroad. Yet recent research has found Development (CGD) Working Paper 539. Washington, DC: Center for Global Development (CGD). that such skilled migration has many positive exter- Note: The bell-shaped curve in gray, and the left-hand vertical axis, show the density nalities including remittances, investment, and trade of household income per capita for the whole Nigerian population. The line in blue (surrounded by an interval of statistical confidence), and the right-hand vertical axis, linkages with countries of destination, as well as better show the probability that people at each income level report that they are actively educational attainment of those in home communities. preparing to permanently emigrate from Nigeria. Migration from Nigeria will continue and is likely to Largely, Nigeria has the right policy instruments and increase. Clemens (2020) has demonstrated the exis- institutions in place to take advantage of an increase tence of a “migration hump”2, whereby low-income in economic migration, remittances, and other oppor- countries exhibit increasingly high emigration pressure tunities linked to its diaspora. In recent years, it has 2.  Michael Clemens. 2020. “The Emigration Life Cycle: How Development Shapes Emigration from Poor Countries.” CGD Working Paper 540. Washington, DC: Center for Global Development. 3.  All currencies in US Dollars unless otherwise stated. Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 3 formulated a National Employment Policy (2017), a leading to substantial skill shortages within a number National Migration Policy (2015), and a National Labor of growing and dynamic industries. Migration Policy (2014). While these policies high- light the importance of labor migration for employ- In 2021, the European Commission found that out ment generation and economic development within of the top 28 shortage occupations, all but three fell Nigeria, they also highlight the lack of formal struc- into six buckets: health care, construction, engineer- tures and support for labor migrants. They call for the ing, mechanics, ICT, and hospitality. Fifty-five percent establishment of an effective, responsive, and dynamic of these occupations require medium-level qualifi- labor migration governance system that includes both cations, 28 percent require low qualifications, and bilateral labor agreements (BLA) and memoranda of 25 percent require high qualifications. Within many understanding (MoU) to facilitate labor migration. of these occupations there exists both a lack of rele- vant applicants and a lack of people willing to take on roles at current wages and working conditions. These Europe skill shortages are having an impact on the ability of employers to invest, expand, and remain produc- Europe is experiencing significant demographic tive. The European Investment Bank has found that shifts. By 2050, its working-age population (those aged 72 percent of firms consider skill shortages to be an between 28 and 64) is projected to decline by over 15 obstacle to investment. Responding to such skill short- percent from 2020 levels due to a combination of low ages will require creative solutions to raise wages and birth rates and increased longevity. Without migra- working conditions, but it will also likely require some tion, a selection of OECD countries are predicted to amount of international recruitment. lose more than 92 million workers over that same time period while gaining more than 100 million people Despite this large and growing need, there are rela- over 65 years of age. This will have substantial impli- tively few migration pathways that allow those with a cations for European pension schemes, while also medium level of skills to move to Europe, particularly Figure ES.3. As legal migration from Africa decreases, irregular migration increases Africa total Northern Africa Sub-Saharan Africa 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Non-humanitarian first residence permits Asylum seekers Source: Eurostat, as represented in European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC). 2018. “Many more to come? Migration from and within Africa.” Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union. https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/sites/jrcsh/files/africa_policy_report_2018_final.pdf Note: The figure only includes first residence permits with a duration equal or longer than 12 months issued by the EU28. It does not include residence permits for humanitarian reasons as most of the people receiving this status are included in the number of asylum-seekers. 4 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain from growing regions like Sub-Saharan Africa. There went toward expanding migration opportunities. has long been a history of migration between the two Thankfully, things may be slowly shifting. While the regions, with around 400,000 Africans moving to New Pact on Migration and Asylum focuses predomi- Europe every year between 2010 and 2015. As described nantly on burden sharing for asylum-seekers, it does above, until 2012, the vast majority were moving reg- propose two new legal migration instruments: the EU ularly with visas and residence permits, though the Talent Pool and Talent Partnerships. The latter aims to balance has shifted in recent years. It is unclear how invest in training, development, and systems strength- long irregular arrivals will stay at their current levels, ening in countries of origin, while expanding skilled though COVID-19 has undoubtedly reduced eco- migration. It builds on this “mobility partnerships” nomic opportunities within countries of origin. Yet history and while the precise modes of implementa- one crucial part of the puzzle is the availability of legal tion are still unclear, it is likely they will build on the pathways (Figure ES.3). Over time, European countries success to date with the EU-funded ICMPD-imple- have reduced the number of visas available to people mented Mobility Partnerships Facility (MPF). from African countries and increased their visa rejec- tion rates, despite the vast benefits that such migrants Opening up new legal migration pathways, whether could bring to the aging continent. through this new Talent Partnerships approach or through other innovations, could meet the substan- The lack of legal pathways between the continents is tial skills needs across the European continent while not for lack of policy instruments to facilitate them. contributing to economic development abroad. They In May 2012, the European Union (EU) developed the could also have other positive benefits. First, they could Global Approach to Migration and Mobility (GAMM), play a role in reducing irregular migration. There is which aimed to integrate all aspects of migration and little evidence as to whether expanded legal pathways mobility with so-called third countries into overarch- can substitute for irregular migration, though the few ing “mobility partnerships”.4 Working through existing pieces we do have show that legal pathways combined dialogues such as the Rabat Process, the Prague Process, with robust border enforcement can have an impact. and the ACP-EU Migration Dialogue, new partnerships Second, they could improve foreign policy relation- were signed to promote returns and readmission and ships with third countries. To date, European states enhance circular migration. Since that time, the EU have sought to obtain return and readmission agree- has developed two new overarching migration frame- ments with African countries, without providing any- works—the 2015 European Agenda on Migration and thing meaningful in return. Such legal pathways could the 2019 New Pact on Migration and Asylum—and many help build true and equitable partnerships. And finally, of its member states signed the New York Declaration they could enhance immigrant integration. Skilled on Refugees and Migrants and the Global Compact on migration, even from poor countries, is popular with Safe, Regular, and Orderly Migration. the majority of Europeans. Bringing in small numbers of people who have skills needed within local econo- Yet none of these agreements were able to help Euro- mies could help build support for immigration over pean Member States come to an agreement over how to time. All of this will need to be done by “coalitions of manage migration, and very few meaningfully priori- the willing”, groups of like-minded Member States tized expanding legal migration routes. For example, who want to collaborate to build mutually beneficial only 1.5 percent of the EU Trust Fund for Africa (EUTF) migration agreements. 4.  Note, “third countries” in this context refers to any countries outside of the European Union, European Free Trade Association (EFTA), and the European Economic Area (EEA). Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 5 The Innovation: A Mutually This dual-track approach is the primary distinction Beneficial Migration Agreement, between the Global Skill Partnership model and other migration agreements. It aims to build the global stock or The Global Skill Partnership of skilled workers, ensuring some remain within the model country of origin, thereby combatting brain drain. It also ensures there is a steady stream of invest- In this report, we outline one such mutually bene- ment going into improving both training and systems ficial migration partnership—the Global Skill Part- overall, thereby compensating countries of origin for nership model. The Global Skill Partnership was first producing qualified workers for markets abroad. proposed by CGD’s Michael Clemens in 2012 as a way to regulate skilled migration to benefit countries of Interest in the model has increased in recent years origin, destination, and the migrants themselves. It (especially since the introduction of Talent Partner- was expanded upon in a brief published in late 2017, ships) and there are currently three pilots of the model and subsequently included as the only concrete initia- underway: between Belgium and Morocco in ICT, tive within the 2018 Global Compact for Safe, Regular, between Germany and Kosovo in construction, and and Orderly Migration. between Australia and the Pacific Islands in a range of vocational skills. Building the case for additional pilots A Global Skill Partnership is a bilateral labor migra- is difficult. Even when employers do have the resources tion agreement between a country of origin and a and interest in hiring talent from abroad, they tend to country of destination. The country of origin agrees seek already qualified talent, rather than partnering to train people in skills specifically and immediately with governments to build the global stock of talent. needed in both the country of origin and destination. The remit for developing partnerships also sits awk- Some of those trainees choose to stay and increase wardly between government departments, making it human capital in the country of origin (the “home” difficult to know who to collaborate with. And even track); others migrate to the country of destination if such interest and coordination structures exist, the (the “away” track). The country of destination provides cost, risk, and time involved may be too large a barrier. technology and finance for the training and broader systems support, and receives migrants with the skills Yet given the substantial demand in both countries of to contribute to the maximum extent and integrate destination and origin as outlined above, it is imper- quickly (see Figure ES.4). ative that governments and employers find a way to Figure ES.4. The Global Skill Partnership model Technical training (including financial and technology transfer from the country to destination) Integration training (language, culture awareness) Option to stay Option to migrate Country + Skills + Skills + Earning potential Country of of Origin + Earning potential + Able to migrate legally and safely Destination 6 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain develop such partnerships. To do so, the first steps are these costs could (and have, in other partnerships) be to choose both a sector within which to focus and a covered, including government-led development assis- partner country with which to collaborate. The report tance, support from international organizations and lays out a series of questions which countries should multilateral development banks, private capital, and ask themselves when interrogating both of these steps, from the migrants themselves through loans or schol- ranked from most to least essential. These questions arship arrangements. It may be necessary for a part- are outlined in table ES.1. nership to develop a pilot project with development assistance, proving its impact and relevance to employ- Table ES.1. The Framework for Developing a ers, before transitioning financial responsibility to those Global Skill Partnership employers within a scaled partnership. Such design ele- ments should be tailored to the specific nature of the Choosing a Sector Choosing a Partner Country partnership, and the parties involved. • Where is there a skill • Which countries have shortage? similar labor shortages? • Where is there employer • Where are there existing Finally, it is imperative that the project is accompanied demand? foreign policy ties? by a robust evaluation to test the inherent assumptions • Where is there political • Which countries have and provide evidence as to why the design should or will and public interest in strong labor laws? should not shift as the project moves to scale. Crucially, expanding migration? • Where is there existing data collection should occur in four distinct phases: • Where are there specialized migratory pressure? training requirements? before the training starts, at the end of the training but • Where are there existing • Where is there potential cultural linkages? before migration, at the end of the project, and some- for remittances and skill time after the end of the project (for example, one year transfer? later). Measuring the impact of such a partnership must go beyond numbers; a project that has a wide range of successful impacts but moves a small number Even if the answers to these questions are thoroughly of people should not be designated a failure. The evalu- interrogated, there remain a number of risks inherent ation should seek to understand as many of the follow- within the design and implementation of a Global Skill ing impacts as possible: increased earnings, expanded Partnership. A substantial list of these risks along with businesses, increased remittances, increased skill their mitigation measures are outlined in the report, transfers, shifted gender norms, increased Technical but include such things as the lobbying of trade unions, and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) partic- a lack of language training, skill mismatch, imbalanced ipation, improved systems, and an increased focus on incentives, a lack of stakeholder coordination, secu- migration innovation. rity concerns, and a lack of employer interest. Inter- ested governments must be aware of these risks and develop plans to mitigate them throughout the design Applying the Innovation: and implementation of the partnership. Developing New Migration Partnerships in Health Care, One of these risks is a lack of funding, or at least a lack of sustainable funding, to scale a successful pilot part- Construction, and ICT between nership. There are five main groups of costs involved Nigeria and Europe within a Global Skill Partnership: training costs, staffing costs, migration costs, living costs, and returns and rein- There are many potential sectors and countries of des- tegration costs. There are many different ways in which tination with which Nigeria could develop a Global Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 7 Skill Partnership. In this report, we have highlighted (WHO) has implemented a Global Code of Practice on two distinct partnerships—a health care partner- the International Recruitment of Health Personnel. ship with the United Kingdom (UK) and a construc- This Code of Practice discourages private recruitment tion partnership with Germany—while also exploring from countries with health worker shortages (including ICT as a potential third sector. This is not an exhaus- Nigeria) unless such migration occurs within a mutually tive list. Nigeria should attempt to apply the outlined beneficial government-to-government agreement. The framework to other sectors and countries of destina- Global Skill Partnership meets this criteria by increas- tion to explore the potential for other partnerships to ing the number of health personnel globally and ensur- be developed. ing development assistance is channeled into health systems, improving training, recruitment, and reten- tion in order to reduce the demand/surplus risk out- A Health Care Partnership between Nigeria lined above. and the United Kingdom (UK) Nigeria is suffering from a shortage of nursing profes- By 2030, the world will require an additional 15 million sionals in a range of categories, while the UK is suffer- health care workers if it is to reach its goal of univer- ing from a shortage of primary care nurses. Hence a sal health coverage (UHC). These shortages are par- Global Skill Partnership could be developed between ticularly acute within the nursing profession; in 2018, the two countries, ensuring those on the “home” track there was a shortage of 5.9 million nurses worldwide. are trained in skills relevant in Nigeria and those on Currently, the majority of this demand is within low- the “away” track are trained in skills relevant in the UK. and middle-income countries, though shortages are Graduates could migrate using the UK’s new Health rapidly increasing within high-income countries to and Care Visa, and no formal language training would service their aging populations. be required. The report delves into the details of such a partnership including the parties that would need At the same time, the international migration of health to be involved, the specific design of the training, rel- workers is increasing, particularly from low- to high-in- evant visa schemes, meeting the relevant costs, and come countries, with a 60 percent rise in the number of evaluating such a scheme. Crucially, it emphasizes the migrant doctors and nurses working in OECD countries need for a health care partnership to go beyond merely over the last decade. Today, one in every eight nurses facilitating recruitment, to investing in health systems practice outside the country where they were born or to improve outcomes for all. trained. Health workers move for a variety of reasons, including economic, institutional, professional, and political factors. Particularly of relevance is the capac- A Construction Partnership between Nigeria ity of the government to employ the number of health and Germany workers needed to achieve UHC. Paradoxically, a low- or middle-income country could have both a demand for The demand for construction projects, particularly health workers (to achieve the minimum level of health within middle-income countries, is rapidly increasing. worker density) and a surplus of health workers (as By 2030, the global construction market is forecast to be more workers are trained than can be employed within worth $17.5 trillion, up by $8 trillion from today. Seventy the public and private systems). percent of this growth is expected to occur in just eight countries: China, the United States, India, Indonesia, To ensure that such health worker migration doesn’t the United Kingdom, Mexico, Canada, and Nigeria. The lead to brain drain, the World Health Organization industry has continued to grow during COVID-19 and 8 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain shortages are acute within a number of specialized con- alongside the construction training. Again, the report struction roles. Worldwide, the construction industry delves into the detail of such a partnership including employs approximately 7 percent of the workforce. It the parties that would need to be involved, the specific is a major source of employment in countries of origin, design of the training, relevant visa schemes, meeting with around 70 million people working in construction the relevant costs, and evaluating such a scheme. in traditional aid recipient countries. Migrants, both temporary and permanent, have long An ICT Partnership between Nigeria and been the cornerstone of construction markets. The European partners International Labor Organization (ILO) has identi- fied that many employers in both countries of origin The digital economy is huge and growing rapidly, worth and destination suffer from a lack of skilled workers, $11.5 trillion globally which is equivalent to 15.5 percent either due to an absolute lack in the number of people of global GDP. The ICT industry stands at the center available; the rapid growth in projects outstripping the of this and has been a powerful driver of economic ability of the education system to keep pace; and/or the growth in low-, middle-, and high-income countries increase in the size and complexity of projects requiring around the world. It has proven resilient to the impact a specific skill set to execute. On the latter, the increas- of COVID-19, with the move to digital working and ing focus on the expansion of low-carbon technolo- learning accelerating the take-up of ICT services. gies globally could provide an opportunity to develop a Global Skill Partnership to develop “green” skills. As the industry grows, so too does the demand for talent. From 2005 to 2015, employment for ICT pro- Nigeria’s physical infrastructure deficit is currently fessionals in the EU grew by one-third, and it is now severely hampering their prospects for economic a shortage occupation within 24 EU Member States. growth and development; it is estimated that the Similar trends can be seen across low- and middle-in- country needs to invest $3 trillion in the next 30 years come countries. Nigeria is said to be Africa’s biggest to close existing gaps in infrastructure. Yet the con- digital market and the digital economy could add $88 struction sector has one of the highest vacancy rates billion and 3 million jobs to the economy by 2027. Yet and an ineffective TVET infrastructure. Similarly, Ger- employers say job readiness among young people is low many’s construction sector continues to grow and is and the training and education sector has not been able home to Europe’s largest building stock. Yet between to keep up with the changing demands of employers. 2011 and 2015, the number of job vacancies increased by 18.8 percent and the number of people undertaking ICT employers have long sought to use foreign work- training in the sector decreased by one percent. This forces, including both offshoring and outsourcing lack of skilled labor not only threatens the productivity roles, as well as encouraging the migration of highly of the construction sector but also its green transition. skilled professionals. Increasingly though, employers are facing shortages within mid-skill roles for which This shared shortage could be met through a tailored they must (or would rather) hire talent on site. Devel- Global Skill Partnership. Germany could support oping ICT migration partnerships may be more politi- the training of young Nigerians within construction, cally palatable with fewer ethical considerations (than, perhaps allowing those on the “away” track to complete say, health care), have fewer language requirements, the first two years of the vocational qualification within and have more potential for overseas investment. Yet Nigeria and the last year with an employer in Germany. they can also bring challenges given the fast-chang- German language training would need to be provided ing nature of private sector demand, the nature of ICT Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 9 work itself, and the fragmented skill requirements and is an absolute lack of roles available. This is creating existing training infrastructure. emigration pressure, with many seeking opportuni- ties elsewhere, leading to fears of brain drain within This report outlines four potential ICT partnerships countries of origin. that Nigeria could develop: with Germany, the UK, Belgium, and Lithuania. All are facing substantial ICT At the same time, high-income countries like those in skill shortages, have existing migration partnerships or Europe are seeing rapid decreases in their working-age other foreign policy relationships to build on, and are populations. Employers within these countries are interested in Nigeria as an investment market. Again, facing significant skill shortages, particularly within the report delves into the detail of such a partnership mid-skill sectors like health care, construction, and including the parties that would need to be involved, ICT, which is reducing productivity and investment. the specific design of the training, relevant visa Governments within these countries of destination schemes, meeting the relevant costs, and evaluating are also worried about increasing irregular migration, such a scheme. In particular, the report focuses on the developing a series of patchwork responses which nature of the ICT training infrastructure with Nigeria channel large amounts of investment for little return. and the acute need for greater and more structured skills for Nigerian employers and labor markets abroad. Despite the immense economic benefits that could ensue from facilitating mid-skill migration between low- and high-income countries, such pathways are Why Now? effectively nonexistent. This report outlines one way in which these pathways could be facilitated—the Global The world is currently at a crossroads. Low- and mid- Skill Partnership model—building the global stock of dle-income countries like Nigeria are seeing rapid skills within a chosen sector and facilitating the mobil- growth in their working-age populations. Yet often ity of selected trainees. If we are to move away from these increasingly educated and skilled young people the current lose-lose narrative, where skills shortages cannot find meaningful work within their coun- persist in Europe and Nigerian youth fail to identify tries of origin, either because their skills are not well opportunities, this model should be piloted, evalu- aligned to the needs of employers or because there ated, and scaled. 10 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain Introduction Europe is experiencing significant demographic shifts. signing the New Pact on Migration and Asylum, which By 2050, its working-age population is projected to aims (among other things) to promote more legal labor decline by over 15 percent from 2020 levels, owing to a migration between the continents.6 In recent years, combination of low birth rates and increased longevity. Sub-Saharan African countries have taken important The impact of this shift is already being felt; the private steps to improve the management of migration, while sector in many European countries is demanding an working to ensure such partnerships confer a mean- increase in the number of workers available and the ingful development benefit. types of skills they possess. COVID-19 has further exac- erbated labor shortages in key sectors such as health Nigeria is one of these countries. In recent years, it care, as well as exposing the reliance European coun- has formulated a National Employment Policy (2017), tries have on migrant workers. If Europe is to continue a Draft National Policy on Diaspora Matters (2016), to grow and sustain its current social programs, it will a National Migration Policy (2015), and a National need a substantial increase in the number and type of Labor Migration Policy (2014). The latter two docu- potential workers.5 ments are in the process of being revised. While these policies highlight the importance of labor migration At the same time, the working-age population in for employment generation and economic develop- Sub-Saharan Africa is booming. This results from a sig- ment within Nigeria, they also highlight the lack of nificant development achievement: the reduction in formal structures and support for labor migrants from premature mortality. Many of these new labor market Nigeria. They call for the establishment of an effective, entrants will join increasingly developed local econo- responsive, and dynamic labor migration governance mies, while others will migrate regionally in search of system that includes both bilateral labor agreements opportunities. Still others will seek work further away, (BLA) and memoranda of understanding (MoU) to in places such as Europe, to pursue fulfilling liveli- facilitate labor migration. hoods and send remittances back home. To support the establishment of such frameworks, the As a result of these forces, there are many policy actors World Bank has an ongoing engagement with Govern- on both continents who are interested in ensuring that ment of Nigeria, as part of a broader analytical program migration from Sub-Saharan Africa to Europe is safe, that aims to better understand the potential of labor regular, and orderly, while promoting economic devel- migration and skills partnerships to provide more opment on both sides. This interest has culminated and better jobs to Nigerian youth. One of the objec- in the European Union (EU) and its Member States tives of this engagement was to develop a feasibility 5.  Michael Clemens, Helen Dempster, and Kate Gough. 2019. “Promoting New Kinds of Legal Labour Migration Pathways Between Europe and Africa.” Center for Global Development (CGD) Brief. Washington, DC: Center for Global Development (CGD). https://www.cgdev.org/publication/ promoting-new-kinds-legal-labour-migration-pathways-between-europe-and-africa 6.  European Commission. 2020. “A fresh start on migration: Building confidence and striking a new balance between responsibility and solidarity.” Press Release. September 23, 2020. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_1706 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 11 assessment for new bilateral labor agreements within as well as outside of Nigeria. This feasibility assessment chosen sectors, mirroring the Center for Global Devel- is therefore firmly aligned with the objectives set out by opment’s (CGD) Global Skill Partnership model. This the World Bank to support the Government of Nigeria model, developed by CGD Fellow, Michael Clemens, in in enabling safe, regular, and orderly labor migra- 2012, was included as the only specific idea to realize the tion partnerships with countries of destination, that objectives of the United Nations (UN) Global Compact promote economic development on both sides. In addi- for Safe, Orderly, and Regular Migration.7 tion, the World Bank’s convening power among stake- holders within Nigeria and abroad, and lessons learnt The Global Skill Partnership is a bilateral labor migra- from similar engagements in other global context can tion agreement between a country of origin and a help the Government of Nigeria in piloting, evaluating, country of destination.8 A country of destination would and scaling efforts to create sustainable labor migration invest in training and education within the country of pathways from Nigeria and other Sub-Saharan African origin (in this case, Nigeria) to develop skills needed countries facing similar challenges. in both Nigeria and abroad. Those trained under the “away” track would also have access to language and cultural training, and then have their migration facili- Methodology tated. Those on the “home” track would be supported to find work in the Nigerian labor market. A country of This feasibility assessment was based on over 100 inter- destination could also channel development support views with stakeholders in the field of labor migration. into Nigeria, to support broader systems improve- Interviewees were chosen based on their positions ment. This report outlines how such partnerships within relevant governmental, nongovernmental, could be developed between Nigeria and Europe, par- and private sector institutions, in Nigeria, the UK, ticularly in the sectors of health care, construction, and Germany, and Europe more broadly. A snowball sam- information and communications technology (ICT), pling approach was employed, whereby interviewees and with the countries of the United Kingdom (UK) were asked to recommend others who may have rel- and Germany. Yet it is hoped that this feasibility assess- evant experience and insights. While detailed notes ment also contains useful lessons for both Sub-Saharan were made of the interviews, the interviewees and African and European countries interested in develop- their comments are private. In this feasibility assess- ing mutually beneficial labor migration partnerships. ment, we have drawn on their comments while not ascribing any to specific interviewees. This method was One of the four core pillars of the recently approved chosen in order to allow interviewees to speak freely World Bank Country Partnership Framework (CPF) about opportunities, challenges, and constraints. for Nigeria (2020-2025) is the “Investment in Human Capital and Harnessing Nigeria’s Demographic Divi- In addition, this feasibility assessment draws on an exten- dend.” 9 Within this pillar, the CPF, among other things, sive literature review. Information relevant to migra- prioritizes supporting the government’s efforts to tion management and labor migration within and from equip youth with market-relevant skills at all levels and Sub-Saharan Africa was consulted, as were government to create pathways to employment, both domestically documents relating to the development of migration 7.  The United Nations Global Compact for Safe, Regular, and Orderly Migration consists of 23 objectives and was adopted in December 2018 by 163 Member States after 18 months of consultative processes. 8.  For more information about the Global Skill Partnership model, please see www.cgdev.org/gsp 9.  World Bank. “Nigeria - Country Partnership Framework for the Period FY21-FY25 (English).” Washington, DC: World Bank Group. http://documents.world- bank.org/curated/en/526171611619063445/Nigeria-Country-Partnership-Framework-for-the-Period-FY21-FY25 12 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain management policies. In particular, this report draws demographic change and labor market gaps across the on labor market analyses to identify key sectors and continent. Overall, this section aims to explore why countries with which to promote partnerships. legal labor migration is an opportunity that should be exploited to serve goals in both countries of origin and Finally, the report also benefits from extensive desk- destination. based research carried out to identify the opportu- nities in the labor market in Nigeria and Europe. The Section 2 provides an overview of the innovation. It begins Nigeria relevant findings in Section 1 of the feasibil- by exploring the Global Skill Partnership model--what ity assessment draw on extensive analysis conducted it is, how it differs from other migration models, and through a companion report titled “The Road Less where it is currently being trialed. The next two parts Travelled: Assessing the Potential of Economic Migra- provide useful frameworks for deciding sectors and tion To Provide Overseas Jobs for Nigeria’s Youth” which countries with which to implement such a partnership. places international migration within the broader The final part of the section explores issues with the labor market context in Nigeria, synthesizes the avail- implementation of such a partnership, including risks able evidence in looking at how migration happens out and mitigation measures, financing, evaluation, and of Nigeria, and underlines key institutional gaps that the role of multilateral actors such as the World Bank. are hampering Nigeria’s ability to enhance the benefits Overall, this section highlights why the Global Skill and reduce the costs from international migration.10 Partnership model is a new innovation which is rele- vant to the current context in Nigeria and needs to be piloted, tested, and scaled to serve the dual purposes of Structure promoting better migration management and enhanc- ing economic development in partner countries. This report is split into five sections which are rela- tively distinct. The first two sections are theoretical Section 3 is the first case study, whereby the authors and provide an overview of both the opportunity and apply the Global Skill Partnership model to a spe- innovation at the heart of this feasibility assessment. cific sector and country—health care and the UK. It The final three sections apply the innovation to three explores the current state of the health care system case studies: a health care partnership with the UK, a within Nigeria and the UK, respectively, including the construction partnership with Germany, and an ICT workforce, training and education system, and migra- partnership with a number of European countries. tion profile. The final section explores how the Global Skill Partnership model could practically be imple- Section 1 provides an overview of the opportunity. It mented between Nigeria and the UK in health care, details the current state of the labor market, demo- including how such a partnership could be designed, graphic change, and unemployment within Nigeria, what risks could materialize, which mitigation mea- current migration patterns from Nigeria to Europe, sures need to be put in place, and potential ways to the relationship between emigration and develop- finance such a partnership. ment, and the governmental migration manage- ment structure. It then goes on to address Europe, Section 4 is the second case study, exploring a part- exploring current migration patterns from Sub-Saha- nership in construction with Germany. It explores ran Africa to Europe, the policy tools that have been the current state of the construction industry within enacted to respond to these flows, and an overview of Nigeria and Germany, including the workforce, 10.  Samik Adhikari, Sarang Chaudhary, and Nkechi Linda Ekeator. 2021. “Of Roads Less Travelled: Assessing the Potential of Economic Migration to Provide Overseas Jobs for Nigeria’s Youth.” World Bank, Washington, DC Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 13 training and education system, and migration profile. migration profile. It then goes on to explore potential The final section explores how the Global Skill Part- countries of destination for a Global Skill Partnership nership model could practically be implemented including Germany, the UK, Belgium, and Lithuania. It between Nigeria and Germany in the construction concludes by exploring risks and mitigation measures, sector, including how such a partnership should be especially in light of COVID-19. designed, what risks and mitigation measures merit consideration, and potential ways to finance such a Throughout the report, we have sought to highlight partnership. relevant initiatives that are being developed within the field of labor migration. These examples are not Finally, Section 5 is the last case study, exploring how a exhaustive, nor are they immediately relevant to all partnership in ICT could be developed. While ICT was policy situations. The nature of the Global Skill Part- frequently brought up by our interviewees as an area nership model means that it must be deliberately tai- of interest both within Nigeria and abroad, there was lored to the needs of both the sector and country in not one clear country of destination that came out of question. Hence the authors hope these examples these discussions. Hence this final section explores the will be useful in such policy discussions but acknowl- current state of the ICT industry within Nigeria, includ- edge that more discussion and analysis must occur to ing the workforce, training and education system, and develop the details of such a beneficial partnership. 14 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain Section 1: The Opportunity Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 15 By 2050, Europe’s working-age population is projected surge in irregular migration from Nigeria during the to decline by over 15 percent from 2020 levels, owing height of the European “migration crisis” in 2016-17 is a to a combination of low birth rates and increased lon- direct consequence of worsening employment options gevity.11 At the same time, the working age-popula- at home, combined with a lack of regular migration tion in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to expand by another channels to find work overseas. Travel restrictions 2 billion, significantly adding to the existing pressure and border closures caused by COVID-19 are leading on the local labor market. This section describes the to declines in international migration from coun- opportunity presented by this scenario. tries of origin such as Nigeria, but this is a short-term hiatus. Over the medium term, international migra- It first looks at the emerging labor market trends in tion is likely to continue increasing, primarily due to Nigeria, highlighting how worsening joblessness com- economic and demographic factors. Given the over- bined with lack of regular channels for migration lead whelming evidence of the economic benefits of eco- to a surge in irregular migration in 2016 and 2017. It nomic migration in the global context, Nigeria stands then looks at how structured and mutually beneficial to benefit from new migration partnerships that migration partnerships with countries of destination, provide the growing number of youths with an oppor- that also take Nigeria’s national development ambi- tunity for safe, regular, and orderly migration and tions into account, could benefit Nigeria by address- cater to the domestic needs of Nigeria’s labor market. ing growing unemployment and skills mismatches and bringing more remittances into its economy. The Labor Market, Unemployment, and Skills Similarly, the opportunity highlighted in this section Mismatches aligns with the interests of the EU’s New Pact on Migra- tion and Asylum, where one of the specific goals high- As Africa’s most populous and largest economy, Nige- lighted is to promote more mutually beneficial legal ria’s economic prosperity has implications for the con- migration pathways with Sub-Saharan Africa. This will tinent and the rest of the world.13 Between 2000 and not only help Europe address growing labor shortages 2014, the Nigerian economy grew at an average of 6.1 in key sectors of the economy, but also allow it to build percent per year. Nigeria’s economic performance stronger cooperation with countries of origin and during this period, as the 13th largest producer of oil transit and benefit from enhanced cooperation for in the world, was largely fueled by stable oil prices economic development in the process. and a prudent counter cyclical fiscal policy during the global financial crisis of 2008. However, in 2014, with the sharp drop in global oil prices, Nigeria’s economy Nigeria entered a recession. Before it could fully recovery, another crisis arrived in the form of COVID-19. To keep pace with increasing labor market demand, Nigeria will need to create an additional 30 million Breaking the dependency on oil and restoring eco- jobs by 2030. At the current rate, they are on track to nomic prosperity will require Nigeria to provide gainful create only 10 percent of this number.12 The recent employment opportunities, especially to the growing 11.  Michael Clemens, Helen Dempster, and Kate Gough. 2019. “Promoting New Kinds of Legal Labour Migration Pathways Between Europe and Africa.” Center for Global Development (CGD) Brief. Washington, DC: Center for Global Development (CGD). https://www.cgdev.org/publication/ promoting-new-kinds-legal-labour-migration-pathways-between-europe-and-africa 12.  Nigerian National Bureau of Statistics. 2020. “Labor Force Survey: Unemployment and Underemployment Report.” Available at https://www.nigerianstat. gov.ng/pdfuploads/Q2_2020_Unemployment_Report.pdf 13.  This section is based on the analysis presented in a companion report: Samik Adhikari, Sarang Chaudhary, and Nkechi Linda Ekeator. 2021. “Of Roads Less Travelled: Assessing the Potential of Economic Migration to Provide Overseas Jobs for Nigeria’s Youth.” World Bank, Washington, DC 16 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain number of youth in the country. Set to become the third Besides growing unemployment rates since the eco- most populous country in the world, Nigeria will gain nomic recession of 2016, there is plausible evidence another 100 million people below the age of 35 by 2040. that Nigerian youth are not entering the domestic labor However, Nigeria’s expanding working-age population, market with industry-relevant skills. A 2019 Pricewater- combined with scarce domestic employment oppor- house Coopers (PwC) survey of 1,629 key decision-mak- tunities, is creating high rates of unemployment in the ers in the micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSME) country. Between 2010 and 2018, 25 million Nigerians sector across all six geopolitical zones in Nigeria shows entered the labor force. During the same period, the around 7 percent of MSMEs cite unskilled workforce as unemployment rate rose from 9.7 percent in 2010 to 23.1 the most pressing problem facing their business.15 Simi- percent in 2018. The unemployment rate was signifi- larly, in a 2016 Skills Gap Assessment—conducted by the cantly higher for youth (34.7 percent) compared to non- Nigerian government in collaboration with UNIDO in youth (19 percent). With COVID-19-induced lockdowns, six priority sectors and based on a survey of 1,707 busi- this trend is likely to have worsened, especially in urban nesses in Nigeria —found that 8.3 percent of all estab- areas.14 While unemployment rates have increased sub- lishments reported having difficulties filling vacancies stantially for Nigerians across all education levels over due to applicants’ lack of skills, qualifications, or expe- the years, it has become progressively more challenging rience. Around 15.7 percent of all hard-to-fill vacancies for educated Nigerians to find employment opportuni- were ascribed to lack of technical skills. Generic or softer ties. Between 2010 and 2020, the unemployment rate skills such as planning and organizing skills, customer increased by 22.6 percentage points for Nigerians with handling skills, or team working skills were each cited in a secondary education and 30.1 percentage points for connection with between 7.5 percent and 10 percent of Nigerians with a post-secondary education. hard-to-fill vacancies.16 Figure 1. Unemployment rates among Nigeria’s youth haves been rising steeply Percent 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 Unemployment Rate - Youth (Nigeria Definition) Unemployment Rate - non - Youth (Nigeria Definition) Unemployment Rate - Youth (ILO Definition) Unemployment Rate - non - Youth (ILO Definition) 14.  Gloria Joseph-Raji, Miguel Angel Saldarriaga, and Marco Antonio Hernandez Ore. 2020. “Rising to the Challenge: Nigeria’s COVID Response.” World Bank Nigeria Development Update (NDU). December 2020. Washington, DC: World Bank Group. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/han- dle/10986/34921/Rising-to-the-Challenge-Nigerias-COVID-Response.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y 15.  Pricewaterhouse Coopers (PWC). 2020. “MSME Survey 2020: Building to Last. Nigeria Report.” Abuja: Pricewaterhouse Coopers. https://www.pwc.com/ng/ en/assets/pdf/pwc-msme-survey-2020-final.pdf 16.  United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO). 2017. “Skills Gap Assessment in Six Priority Sectors of Nigeria Economy.” October 2016. Vienna: UNIDO. https://open.unido.org/api/documents/6055563/download/Skills%20Gap%20Assessment%20in%20Nigeria%20-%20Final%20Report.pdf Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 17 Panel B: Unemployment rates among educated Nigerians have accelerated since 2015 Percent 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 Never attended school Below Primary Primary Secondary Post Secondary Source: World Bank Calculations based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Note: Unemployment (ILO Definition): The unemployed comprise all persons of working age who were: (a) without work during the reference period, i.e., were not in paid employ- ment or self-employment; (b) currently available for work, i.e. were available for paid employment or self-employment during the reference period; and (c) seeking work, i.e. had taken specific steps in a specified recent period to seek paid employment or self-employment. Unemployment (National Definition): In addition to the unemployed as defined by ILO, NBS considers any individual as ‘unemployed’ who could not find work for at least 20 hours during the reference period. Favara, Appasamy, and Garcia (2015) conducted a Realizing this, the Nigerian government, under the thorough review of the main challenges in the skills auspices of the Vice President, established a National development system in Nigeria and identified several Skills Council in February 2020.18 The Council prior- gaps, including severe constraints on staffing, facil- itizes the skilling and employment of Nigerian youth ities, and equipment resulting in exceedingly low and is born out of the objectives laid out in the Eco- equitable access and quality; low external efficiency nomic and Recovery and Growth Plan (EGRP) of 2017- due to the absence of linkages between curriculum 20.19 Among other objectives, the Council aims to design and labor market information (LMI), espe- conduct regular skills surveys to identify the skills gap cially from industry and enterprises; gender inequity; in the country to ensure that training will be demand- shortage of well-qualified technical and vocational based and to fast track the institutionalization of the education teachers and inadequate professional National Skills Qualification Framework in Nigeria. development; and weak institutional capacity at the federal and state levels.17 17.  Marta Favara, Irajen Appasamy, and Marito H. Garcia. 2015. “Nigeria: Skills for Competitiveness and Employability.” Washington, DC: World Bank Group. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/24454 18.  Laolu Akande. 2020. “Our Plans to Address Skills Gap and Employability in Nigeria – VP Osinbajo at Inauguration of National Council on Skills.” Nigerian Office of the Vice President Press Release. February 28, 2020. https://statehouse.gov.ng/press-releases/ our-plans-to-address-skills-gap-and-employability-in-nigeria-vice-president-osinbajo-at-inauguration-of-national-council-on-skills/ 19.  Nigerian Ministry of Budget and National Planning. 2017. “Economic Recovery & Growth Plan, 2017-2020.” Abuja: Nigerian Ministry of Budget and National Planning. https://nigeriaembassygermany.org/mosaic/_M_userfiles/Economic-Recovery-Growth-Plan-2017-2020.pdf 18 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain The Relationship Between Emigration and Figure 2. The desire of Nigerians to migrate Development internationally has grown in recent years Percent Concerned about their prospects at home, Nigeria’s 60 youth are increasingly looking to other economies for 50 work. A Gallup poll conducted before the 2019 presi- dential elections shows that roughly half of all Nigerians 40 said it was a “bad time” to find a job in the economy.20 30 Unemployment for both youth and adults has consis- tently ranked as the most important issue facing the 20 country, above management of the economy, poverty, corruption, and electricity.21 Consequently, multiple 10 surveys show that the number of Nigerians who are 0 looking to migrate internationally is high and increas- 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 ing. The proportion keen to leave permanently has increased from 36 percent in 2014 to 52 percent in 2018, Source: Author’s calculations based on data from Gallup. according to Gallup (Figure 2). This is one of the highest levels in Sub-Saharan Africa. Data from Afro Barome- ter show that the desire to migrate is higher among the relationship between emigration levels and income.23 unemployed (38 percent), youth (39 percent), second- That is, as countries grow richer, emigration levels ary education graduates (39 percent), urban residents tend to increase until they reach upper-middle income (41 percent) and post-secondary graduates (45 percent) status. Recent data from Nigeria confirms this trend. in Nigeria.22 Notably, these proportions far exceed the Relatively richer states in Nigeria —mostly in the South actual proportion of international migrants in the of the country—with lower poverty rates receive a Nigerian population. higher share of international remittances (Figure 3, panel A). Similarly, the share of Nigerians actively pre- Given that the economic and demographic factors paring to emigrate internationally is higher in the driving international migration remain largely richer quintiles of the income distribution (Figure 3, unchanged, Nigerians can be expected to continue panel B). As the less prosperous states catch up to the to want to migrate abroad for the foreseeable future. more prosperous ones, migration from Nigeria will Multiple studies confirm an inverted-U shaped likely increase in the future as opposed to decreasing. 20.  RJ Reinhart. 2019. “Nigerians See Mixed Economic Picture as Election Day Nears.” Gallup. February 12, 2019. https://news.gallup.com/poll/246590/nigeri- ans-mixed-economic-picture-election-day-nears.aspx 21.  Afro Barometer, “Results from the Afro Barometer Round 5 Survey in Nigeria (2013), available at https://afrobarometer.org/sites/default/files/media-brief- ing/nigeria/nig_r5_presentation2.pdf; Highlights of Round 6 survey findings from 36 African countries (2016), available at https://afrobarometer.org/sites/ default/files/summary_results/ab_R6_afrobarometer_global_release_highlights.pdf.; Afrobarometer Round 7, Survey in Nigeria (2018), available at: https:// afrobarometer.org/sites/default/files/publications/Summary%20of%20results/nig_r7_sor_28032018_eng.pdf 22.  Afro Barometer, Round 7. Survey in Nigeria (2018), available at: https://afrobarometer.org/sites/default/files/publications/Summary%20of%20results/ nig_r7_sor_28032018_eng.pdf 23.  Wilbur Zelinksy. 1971. ‘The Hypothesis of the Mobility Transition.” Geographical Review 61(2): 219–249. https://www.jstor.org/stable/213996?seq=1; Philip L. Martin and J. Edward Taylor. 1996. ‘The Anatomy of a Migration Hump.” https://www.econbiz.de/Record/the-anatomy-of-a-migration-hump-martin- philip/10001294172.; Hein de Haas. 2010. “Migration and Development: a Theoretical Perspective.” International Migration Review 44(1): 227-264. https:// onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1747-7379.2009.00804.x; Michael A. Clemens. 2014. “Does Development Reduce Migration?” IZA Discussion Papers, No. 8592, Bonn: Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/106535/1/dp8592.pdf Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 19 Figure 3. Share of households receiving international remittances is higher in states with lower poverty rates Panel A: Share of households receiving international remittances compared to national poverty rates Mean Consumption/Remittances in Naira Share of households receiving remittances from abroad 500,000 30% 400,000 25% 20% 300,000 15% 200,000 10% 100,000 5% 0 0% Katsina Ekiti Cross River Plateau Rivers Jigawa FCT Sokoto Zamfara Kwara Taraba Edo Delta Kano Borno Bayelsa Kogi Enugu Niger Benue Kaduna Kebbi Lagos Yobe Ebonyi Nasarawa Anambra Imo Osun Abia Oyo Bauchi Ogun Adamawa Ondo Gombe Akwa Ibom Mean Remittances Mean Consumption Share of HHs received remittances from abroad Source: Author’s calculations using data from NBS. Panel B: The share of Nigerians actively preparing to Emigration from Nigeria emigrate is lowest at low incomes, and highest at high incomes Labor shortages in high-income countries and labor Probability of preparing for migration surplus in low- and middle-income countries such 0.08 as Nigeria mean that employment opportunities will Income density 0.4 likely remain unequally distributed across the globe in the future. This creates an opportunity for some young 0.06 Nigerian jobseekers to find employment abroad. 0.3 Managed labor migration schemes can help prevent 0.04 the erosion of human capital caused due to high rates 0.2 of labor inactivity, particularly among educated Nigeri- 0.02 ans. They can also, if designed as described below, lead 0.1 to greater skill harmonization and qualification recog- nition among countries, providing more opportunities 0 for skilled Nigerians to work abroad. Doing so, directly 0 100 1,000 10,000 benefits prospective migrants and their households, Household income per adult (PPP$ ln scale) and indirectly benefits the Nigerian economy by bring- Source: Michael Clemens and Mariapia Mendola. 2020. “Migration from Developing ing to fruition unrealized economic gains. Countries: Selection, Income Elasticity, and Simpson’s Paradox.” Center for Global Development (CGD) Working Paper 539, Washington, DC: Center for Global Development (CGD). Note: The bell-shaped curve in gray, and the left-hand vertical axis, show the density of household income per capita for the whole Nigerian population. The line in blue (surrounded by an interval of statistical confidence), and the right-hand vertical axis, show the probability that people at each income level report that they are actively preparing to permanently emigrate from Nigeria. 20 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain Migration Management Structure destinations for prospective Nigerian jobseekers; assist migrants in crossing necessary legal and admin- Nigeria has the right policy instruments and institu- istrative hurdles before departure; support them tions in place to take advantage of economic migra- while in destination countries; help facilitate trans- tion, remittances, and other opportunities linked fers of skills, technology, and remittances to Nigeria; to its diaspora, but room for improvement exists. and coordinate efforts to support migrants in distress Nigeria has made significant recent improvements to as well as upon return to Nigeria. Various technical its managed migration framework and continues to working groups such as the Labor Migration Working draw on the support of stakeholders for policymaking Group, and the Migration Working Group offer plat- and implementation.24 These stakeholders (Figure 4) forms for stakeholders to come together, discuss have the mandate to facilitate access to international issues, and propose actions to improve the migration Figure 4. A diverse range of institutions and stakeholders participate in policy-making processes throughout the migration lifecycle Pre-Departure Post-Migration National Electronic Labor National Commission for Nigeria Immigration Service Exchange, International International Labor Refugees, Migrants and • Issues passports and relevant Labor Migration Desk Migration Desk – FMLE Internally Displaced travel documents • Acts as a labor intermediation • Ensures protection of Persons and National platform collecting employment and social rights Agency for the Prohibition Ministry of Foreign Affairs information on jobseekers of Nigerian workers abroad of Trafficking in Persons  • Negotiates Bilateral and international employers; • Coordinates efforts to  Agreements and Memoranda registers PEAs Nigerians in Diaspora receive returnee migrants of Understanding with Commission and reintegrate them into countries of destination National Board for Technical • Offers support to diasporas in the society Education – Federal Ministry need abroad Federal Ministry of Justice of Education • Helps facilitate transfers of Federal Ministry of Labor and Ministry of Interior • Helps ratify relevant • Provides skills training and skills, technology, and and Employment certification to potential investment from the diaspora • Provides employment international conventions migrants services to returning/ on migrants Central Bank of Nigeria repatriated migrants and National Agency for the Migrant Resource Centers, • Regulates banks and other  helps them integrate in Prohibition of Trafficking International Labor financial institutions; and Nigeria’s labor market in Persons Migration Desk governs the remittance of • Helps create awareness • Serves as a “one-stop shop” funds into Nigeria, including National Board for Technical against human trafficking where intending, actual, and determining the remittance Education – Federal Ministry returning migrants access commission/charge of Education Federal Ministry of Labor relevant migration • Equips institutions to and Employment information on legal, National Bureau of provide technical • Develops processes for the organized and humane Statistics and National accreditation of skills of registration and licensing of migration, rights and Population Commission returning migrants genuine Private Employment protection of migrants • Has the mandate to provide Agencies (PEAs) and update data on migrants Federal Ministry of Health abroad • Issues necessary medical certification to prospective migrants Pre-Decision During Migration Source: Stakeholder Consultations 24.  Nigeria’s overseas employment framework at the Federal level is assessed in greater detail in the companion report that presents an assessment of the migration management framework in Nigeria. Samik Adhikari, Sarang Chaudhary, and Nkechi Linda Ekeator. 2021. “Of Roads Less Travelled: Assessing the Potential of Economic Migration to Provide Overseas Jobs for Nigeria’s Youth.” World Bank, Washington, DC Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 21 management framework.25 Table 1 summarizes key with BLAs and MoUs that offer legal pathways for national level policy documents in place to improve Nigerians to gain employment internationally. Even the current managed migration framework and reap though national policy documents mention engaging further returns from migration and diaspora. with destination countries to assess skills shortages and prepare Nigerian jobseekers to fill those short- Nigeria’s labor migration management system con- ages, these strategies are not implemented in prac- tinues to have gaps that require closing. Most current tice. Lack of available data on prospective, current, discussions on agreements between Nigeria and des- and returning migrants prevents stakeholders from tination countries only concern the return of irregu- making informed decisions to improve migration lar Nigerian migrants.26 They are not complemented management practices. Table 1. Key National Policy Documents and Recommendations to Leverage Migration and Diaspora Policy Document Recommendations for Improving Migration Management and Diaspora Issues Formulated in the Document National Labor Migration • Acknowledges the scant formal structure currently in place to aid prospective Nigerian Policy (2014) migrants, and attributes this lack of structure for migrants being poorly informed about the conditions governing entry, work, residence, skills required, cultural issues, and their rights and obligations in destination countries • Calls for the establishment of an effective, responsive, and dynamic labor migration gover- nance system that includes BLAs and MOUs on labor migration that would deter risky and unsafe migration by providing jobseekers with information about regular means of securing visas for work purposes in other parts of the world National Migration Policy • Calls for mainstreaming of migration in Nigeria’s development process through its integration (2015) in the National Development Plan • Outlines several innovative ways for designing programs that attract foreign investments in Nigerian workforce development systems including determining the types of skills that Nigerian workers need in Nigeria and in other countries and by collaborating with the private sector in destination countries in the provision of continuous training of Nigerian workers National Policy on Diaspora • Proposes initiatives to leverage the economic success of Nigerians in the diaspora and to pro- Matters (2016) tect the well-being of Nigerian migrants, including by reducing the cost of remittances, facili- tating transfers of technology and knowledge back to Nigeria, improving awareness regarding consular services available to Nigerian migrants, and strengthening relevant institutions for proper coordination and administration on diaspora issues 25.  The strength and weaknesses of various institutions governing the labor migration process is highlighted in a companion report: Samik Adhikari, Sarang Chaudhary, and Nkechi Linda Ekeator. 2021. “Of Roads Less Travelled: Assessing the Potential of Economic Migration to Provide Overseas Jobs for Nigeria’s Youth.” World Bank, Washington, DC 26.  There is no record of formal return agreements between Nigeria and Europe although negotiations have been ongoing. See: https://www.eca.europa.eu/ Lists/ECADocuments/AP20_07/AP_Migrant_return_policy_EN.pdf. The Migration Policy Institute, commenting on the lack of formal return and readmission agreements between European Commission and Sub-Saharan African countries, states that: “…the Commission found great difficulty in finalizing formal accords with third countries, especially those whose populations rely on remittances from diasporas irregularly residing in Europe. Informal arrangements keep readmission deals largely out of sight, and thus take away domestic pressure on governments to refrain from cooperating on returns.” See Jonathan Slagter. 2019. “An “Informal” Turn in the European Union’s Migrant Returns Policy towards Sub-Saharan Africa.” January 10, 2019. Washington, DC: Migration Policy Institute (MPI). https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/eu-migrant-returns-policy-towards-Sub-Saharan-africa 22 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain Box 1. Key Definitions Working Age Population: All persons between the out of 232 countries of destination, anyone residing age of 15 and 64 years. outside of their country of birth is classified as an international migrant. For the remaining 45 coun- Active Labor Force: All persons aged 15 to 64 years tries, anyone with a foreign citizenship is classified who are willing and able to work regardless of as an international migrant. whether they have a job or not. Refugees: The refugee population are included Unemployed (ILO Definition): The unemployed in the international migrant stock. In countries comprises all persons of working age who were: where refugees have been granted refugee status (a) without work during the reference period, i.e., and allowed to integrate, they are normally covered were not in paid employment or self-employment; by the population census. In countries where refu- (b) currently available for work, i.e., were available gees are not regularly captured in population cen- for paid employment or self-employment during suses, data from United Nations High Commission the reference period; and (c) seeking work, i.e., had on Refugees (UNHCR) or United Nations Relief and taken specific steps in a specified recent period to Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near seek paid employment or self-employment. East (UNRWA) are added in the estimation of inter- national migrant stock by UNDESA. Unemployed (National Definition): In addition to the unemployed as defined by ILO, Nigeria’s Irregular Migration: The International Organiza- Bureau of Statistics considers any individual as tion of Migration (IOM) defines “irregular migra- ‘unemployed’ who could not find work for at least tion” as “movement of persons that takes place 20 hours during the reference period. outside the laws, regulations, or international agreements governing the entry into or exit from Underemployed (National Definition – Time the State of origin, transit or destination.” Human Based): The underemployed comprises all persons Trafficking, on the other hand, is defined by the who worked for at least 20 hours but less than 40 United Nations as “the recruitment, transporta- hours during the reference week. tion, transfer, harboring, or receipt of persons by improper means (such as force, abduction, fraud, or International Migrants (Defined based on classi- coercion) for an improper purpose including forced fication in the International Migrant Stock 2019, labor or sexual exploitation.” Due to lack of data to released by the United Nations Department of distinguish the trafficked victims among the irregu- Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA), Popula- lar migrants, the analysis presented in this section is tion Division. Data on international migrants are not able to draw separate conclusions between the estimated using population censuses, population two categories empirically. However, the two cate- registers, and nationally representative house- gories are distinct as one involves informed consent hold surveys in countries of destination): For 187 from migrants and the other does not. Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 23 Recent Trends in International Migration 1990. In 2019, around 1.44 million Nigerian migrants from Nigeria were present in destination countries in Sub-Saha- ran Africa, Europe, and North America, with a small In absolute numbers, the number of international share of the remaining migrants in other regions. migrants from Nigeria has increased from around The number of Nigerian migrants has increased in 450,000 in 1990 to 1.4 million in 2019. This corresponds all major destination regions since 1990 (Figure 6). to the share of international migrants in the Nigerian However, the share of Nigerian migrants in the inter- population increasing from 0.5 percent in 1990 to 0.7 national migrant population has decreased in Sub-Sa- percent in 2019. The share of international migrants haran Africa and increased in Europe and North originating from Nigeria and as a proportion of the America. In 1990, 60 percent of migrants from Nigeria total population in 2019 is much lower than in Sub-Sa- moved to other countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, haran Africa (2.5 percent) and the world (3.5 percent) compared to 20 percent and 13 percent to countries (Figure 5). In fact, in 2017, African migrants represented in Europe and North America, respectively. In 2019, 14 percent of the global migrant population, much less the share of Nigerian migrants moving to other coun- than the shares for Asia (41 percent) and Europe (24 tries in Sub-Saharan Africa remains large (42 percent) percent). A recent report from IOM finds that more but has decreased substantially compared to 1990. than 94 percent of the extra-continental migrants from On the other hand, the share of Nigerian migrants Africa migrate through regular channels.27 in Europe and North America has increased to 31 percent and 22 percent respectively in 2019. The con- Additionally, most Nigerians migrate within Sub-Sa- tribution that international migrants make to Nige- haran Africa, although the share of migrants to Europe ria’s GDP through remittances far outweighs their size and North America has increased considerably since as a proportion of the population (i.e., 0.7 percent). Figure 5. Percentage of international migrants in the population in Nigeria, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the world (1990-2019) Percent 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019 Nigeria Sub-Saharan Africa World Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from the UNDESA International Migration Outlook, 2019 revisions. 27.  Aderanti Adepoju (ed.). 2020. “Africa Migration Report: Challenging the Narrative.” International Organization for Migration (IOM) and African Union Commission (AUC). https://reliefweb.int/report/world/africa-migration-report-challenging-narrative 24 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain Figure 6. Share of Nigerian international migrants in major destination regions (1990-2019) 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019 Other Regions Europe Northern America Sub-Saharan Africa Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from the UNDESA International Migration Outlook, 2019 revisions. Nigerian migrants and others in the diaspora contrib- largest group of migrants from Sub-Saharan Africa uted over $25 billion to the Nigerian economy in 2019 who arrived in Europe in 2016 and 2017. Nearly 40,000 (5 percent of Nigeria’s GDP). Fourfold what Nigeria Nigerians arrived in Italy in 2016, with over 90 percent received through foreign direct investment and of those arriving via sea routes. Nigerian migrants official development assistance combined. It is also arriving in Italy were more likely to be women (32 important to highlight that Nigeria received around percent) and have completed secondary education 1.3 million international migrants in 2020 – almost as (39 percent) than other migrants from Sub-Saharan many international migrants from Nigeria–and plays Africa (the proportion of which stands at 24 percent the role of a receiving country for many migrants and 21 percent, respectively). from within Sub-Saharan Africa. While the number of asylum seekers from Nigeria has declined in recent years, and especially in light of the Trends in Irregular Migration COVID-19 crisis, this cannot translate as decreased demand for migration from Nigeria. Over 14,000 With limited options for legal migration outside of Nigerians have been returned from Libya through Africa, young Nigerians are increasingly choosing IOM’s Assisted Voluntary Humanitarian Return and irregular alternatives to find better work opportuni- Repatriation (AVHRR) programs since 2016.28 Outside ties overseas than they can find at home. The number of Libya and in other transit countries, the number of first-time asylum seekers from Sub-Saharan Africa of Nigerians in Niger increased from 19,177 in 2010 and Nigeria into Europe peaked in 2016 (Figure 7), at to 93,179 in 2015.29 Besides migrants in transit, many the height of the European “migration crisis”, before migrants have lost their lives in the Sahara Desert and subsiding in late 2017. Nigerians represented the the Mediterranean Sea while striving to reach Europe. 28.  an Sanderson. 2019. “Returnees struggle to adjust to life in Nigeria.” Info Migrants. Published on September 17, 2019. https://www.infomigrants.net/en/ post/19561/returnees-struggle-to-adjust-to-life-in-nigeria 29.  United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2019). “World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights.” Available at: https://www.un.org/devel- opment/desa/publications/world-population-prospects-2019-highlights.html Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 25 Figure 7. The number of asylum seekers from Sub-Saharan Africa and Nigeria to Europe peaked in 2016 and 2017 before subsiding 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Sub-Saharan Africa Nigeria Source: Author’s calculations based on data from EuroStat In response to the increase in irregular migration from extensively raised the issue of brain drain in Nigeria. Nigeria, most resources and policy attention have been Some prevailing narratives that are often highlighted devoted toward strengthening border controls or cre- in this discourse include: (i) Brain drain is causing a ating awareness around irregular migration. While net export of human capital from Nigeria; (ii) skilled those initiatives are necessary, they are not sufficient to migrants leaving the countries have left many domes- address the challenge of irregular migration, as it over- tic sectors vulnerable; and (iii) that a majority of these looks the economic and demographic context under emigrants are graduates trained in Nigerian universi- which irregular migration occurs. Parallel to initiatives ties which are highly subsidized by the government. that address irregular migration, Nigerian institu- tions are well-placed to promote managed migration It is important to acknowledge that the stock of skilled approaches that help create opportunities for prospec- individuals is paramount to the economic develop- tive Nigerian jobseekers to find employment interna- ment objectives of Nigeria and other Sub-Saharan tionally and can be supported to help design schemes African countries. For example, one in every nine that increase the returns to human capital investments persons born in Africa with a tertiary diploma lived for Nigerian youth. in the OECD in 2010-11,30 leading some to conclude that the continent’s “best and brightest” were leaving for greener pastures after being trained using public Narrative around Brain Drain resources.31 However, a closer look reveals that this narrative of mass exodus of human capital originates Over the last two decades, a myriad of local and inter- from a single sector i.e., health care. While it is true national media, policy makers, and politicians have that health worker migration has accelerated over the 30.  United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). 2013. “World Migration in Figures.” A joint contribution by UNDESA and the OECD to the United Nations High-Level Dialogue on Migration and Development, October 3-4, 2013. http://www.oecd.org/els/mig/World-Migration-in-Figures.pdf 31.  Yomi Kazeem. 2019. “Nigeria’s ongoing middle-class brain drain is costing it two generations in one swoop.” Quartz Africa. May 25, 2019. https://qz.com/ africa/1615518/nigerias-middle-class-keep-emigrating-to-canada-australia/ 26 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain years (see Section 3), there is no concrete data avail- The Way Forward able to assess the extent of brain drain in health care or other sectors and, more generally, for educated Nige- Driven by economic and demographic trends, interna- rians. Ironically, the rationale often quoted by skilled tional migration from Nigeria will continue to increase health care professionals who have emigrated—such as for the foreseeable future. On what terms this migra- low salaries, lack of job satisfaction, and lack of invest- tion happens can be determined through cooperative ment in the health sector—are similar to the reasons policies with countries of destination. The imperative most youth give in opinion polls for wanting to emi- going forward should be to open safe, regular, and grate. As a result, any investment in improving the orderly channels for international migration, to the quality of health worker education in Nigeria will have benefit of countries of destination and Nigeria alike. to go hand-in-hand with substantial improvements to Prioritizing increasing regular migration alongside the health system overall. reducing irregular migration would generate import- ant positive outcomes for Nigeria. This requires a con- Instead, recent research using empirical evidence certed push by the Nigerian government to secure has found that skilled migration has many positive more and larger labor migration partnerships with externalities such as remittances, investment and other countries, to allow prospective Nigerian jobseek- trade linkages with host countries, and better edu- ers to be gainfully employed in countries of destina- cation attainment of community members in coun- tion. Nigerian migrants contribute to the development tries of origin.32 Researchers have also argued that the of Nigeria through remittances which equaled nearly phenomenon of brain drain is much more likely to 5 percent of the GDP in 2019. For sending households, adversely affect smaller countries and sparsely popu- global evidence strongly suggests that remittances help lated areas within countries.33 While the health sector in investments in the human capital of children and struggles from low investment and structural issues in provide cushions against economic shocks. Looking Nigeria, it is parochial to criticize skilled immigration more broadly, migrants help spur innovation in the when a third of the country’s youth struggle to find economy, which often leads to emergence of sectors stable employment in the domestic labor market.34 that would otherwise have not been created in coun- Instead, regulating skilled migration and implement- tries of origin. The links that migrants help gener- ing innovative approaches that increase the stock of ate between two countries help reduce trade-related skilled individuals at home and abroad can address transaction costs. high unemployment and skills mismatches in the domestic labor market while the positive external- Despite the necessity for expanded legal migration ities of skilled migration can lead to further human pathways from Nigeria abroad, there has been little capital accumulation.35 investment in these to date. For example, since the 32.  Catia Batista, Aitor Lacuesta, and Pedro C. Vicente. 2012. “Testing the ‘brain gain’ hypothesis: Micro evidence from Cape Verde.” Journal of Development Economics 97(1): 32-45. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304387811000083; Frederic Docquier and Hillel Rapoport. 2012. “Globalization, Brain Drain, and Development.” Journal of Economic Literature 50(3): 681-730. https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jel.50.3.681; and William Easterly and Yau Nyarko. 2008. “Is the Brain Drain Good for Africa?”, Brookings Global Economy and Development Working Paper No. 19. http://dx. doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1121853 33.  John Gibson and David McKenzie. 2012. “The Economic Consequences of ‘Brain Drain’ of the Best and Brightest: Microeconomic Evidence from Five Countries.” The Economic Journal 122(560): 339-375. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2012.02498.x 34.  See Section 3 on healthcare for a detailed overview of the structural problems in the health care sector in Nigeria. 35.  Slesh Shrestha. 2017. “No Man Left Behind: Effects of Emigration Prospects on Educational and Labour Outcomes of Non-migrants.” Economic Journal 127(600). https://econpapers.repec.org/article/wlyeconjl/v_3a127_3ay_3a2017_3ai_3a600_3ap_3a495-521.htm; and Satish Chand and Michael Clemens. 2019. “Human Capital Investment under Exit Options: Evidence from a Natural Quasi-Experiment.” IZA Discussion Papers 12173. Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics (IZA). https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp12173.html Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 27 onset of the European “migration crisis” in 2016-17, transit. While this focus has always been present in the more than €770 million has been invested in migra- various migration policies of the EU and its Member tion related projects in Nigeria, through the EU Emer- States, it has been given short shrift until recently. gency Trust Fund for Africa (EUTF). The majority of Europe now has a unique opportunity to build genuine the EUTF went toward strengthening border controls, partnerships with third countries, especially those in creating anti-trafficking awareness, and domestic job Sub-Saharan Africa, and benefit from enhanced eco- creation programs. Only 0.3 percent of the total EUTF nomic development in the process. funds invested in Nigeria have been allocated toward creating more legal pathways for Nigerians to migrate internationally.36 Understanding Migration from Africa to Europe Driven by economic and demographic factors, eco- nomic migration will continue to increase from Nigeria Today, European countries attract considerable in the foreseeable future. The private sector in Nigeria numbers of African migrants—for work, study, and is currently unable to absorb the growing number of family reasons. In 2017, Europe hosted 9.1 million Afri- educated youths entering the labor force. The tertiary can-born immigrants, of which 5.1 million were from education system is likely exacerbating this challenge North Africa and 4 million from Sub-Saharan Africa. as it is unable to align its curriculum to meet the global While North Africa has long outstripped its southern demand for a skilled workforce. Whether Nigeria can neighbors in emigration rate terms, Sub-Saharan Africa enhance the benefits from migration in the future will (as its countries develop) is catching up (Figure 8). depend on how prepared Nigerian jobseekers are for employment outside of the country (such as skills and Between 2010 and 2015, around 400,000 Africans language) as well as how effectively the migration man- moved to Europe each year. Until 2012, the vast major- agement system in Nigeria supports this move. ity moved with visas and residence permits. From then until 2016, the number of African immigrants moving legally substantially dropped, before levelling out. Europe This corresponded with an increase in the number of irregular arrivals across the Mediterranean, peaking In October 2019, the new European Commission between 2014 and 2016 (Figure 9). The large majority appointed three Commissioners to lead the migration of irregular arrivals were from Sub-Saharan African portfolio. These Commissioners were given explicit countries including those often recognized as refugees instructions to more effectively manage migration (e.g. from Eritrea, Somalia) and those with substantial by expanding legal pathways to Europe and build- emigration pressure (e.g. from Nigeria, Ivory Coast, ing stronger cooperation with countries of origin and and Senegal). 36.  The Correspondent. 2019. “A breakdown of Europe’s €1.5bn migration spending in Nigeria.” Available at: https://thecorrespondent. com/150/a-breakdown-of-europes-eur1-5bn-migration-spending-in-nigeria/19837235550-e86e62a5 28 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain Figure 8. The share of migrants coming from Sub-Saharan Africa is increasing Precentage share of emigrants outside Africa 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 Northern Africa Eastern Africa Western Africa Central Africa Southern Africa Source: UN Population Division, as represented in European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) 2018. “Many more to come? Migration from and within Africa.” Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union. https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/sites/jrcsh/files/africa_policy_report_2018_final.pdf Note: The share is defined as the stock of Africans living outside Africa divided by the total stock of people from the analyzed region living outside the country of birth. Figure 9. As legal migration from Africa decreases, irregular migration increases Africa total Northern Africa Sub-Saharan Africa 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Non-humanitarian first residence permits Asylum seekers Source: Eurostat, as represented in European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) 2018. “Many more to come? Migration from and within Africa.” Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union. https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/sites/jrcsh/files/africa_policy_report_2018_final.pdf Note: The figure only includes first residence permits with a duration equal or longer than 12 months issued by the EU28. It does not include residence permits for humanitarian reasons as most of the people receiving this status are included in the number of asylum-seekers. Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 29 It is unclear how long irregular arrivals will stay at origin and transit. In developing such partnerships, their current levels. The COVID-19 pandemic has actors drew on the principles developed in the 2007 understandably reduced global mobility, but it has also Africa-EU Strategic Partnership including the inter- reduced work opportunities for people within Sub-Sa- dependence of the two continents and the right to haran African countries. That, coupled with substan- development. tial demographic changes, is likely to lead to increased migration pressure in the near future. Yet, over time, Three years later, the Juncker Commission of the EU European countries have reduced the number of presented its European Agenda on Migration.41 It was visas available to people from African countries and designed to respond to the challenges presented by increased their visa rejection rates.37 As has been the increasing migration crisis through four levels of shown in other contexts, this reduction in legal migra- action: reducing the incentives for irregular migration; tion routes, coupled with increasing border securi- saving lives and securing borders; building a strong, tization, is likely contributing to the rise in irregular common, asylum policy; and creating a new policy emigration.38 on legal migration. Upon signing on to this Agenda, European Member States pledged to encourage more mobility (among other things) at all skill levels to meet Managing Migration from Africa growing employer demands. It was recognized that such actions would help meet the newly adopted Sus- In May 2012, the Global Approach to Migration and tainable Development Goals (SDGs), and promote Mobility (GAMM) was formally adopted by the EU. decent work and economic opportunity for all. GAMM aimed to integrate all aspects of migration and mobility with third countries into overarch- Over the next few years, European Member States ing “mobility partnerships”. These partnerships were worked together with partners at the global level to to be approached in a comprehensive and balanced sign the 2016 New York Declaration on Refugees and manner, building trust and commitment on both Migrants and, eventually, the 2018 Global Compact sides.39 Working through existing dialogues such as for Safe, Orderly, and Regular Migration.42 These the Rabat Process, the Prague Process, and the ACP-EU nonbinding documents aimed to support interna- Migration Dialogue, new partnerships were signed to tional cooperation on the governance of international promote returns and readmission and enhance circu- migration and provide states with a menu of options lar migration.40 Such partnerships were often focused they could pursue to improve migration manage- on Africa (both North and Sub-Saharan), given that ment. The Compact was adopted by 164 governments many African countries were significant countries of with the majority of European Member States voting in 37.  Amanda Bisong. 2020. “The new EU visa code and what it means for African countries.” European Centre for Development Policy Management (ECDPM) Blog. April 6, 2020. https://ecdpm.org/talking-points/new-eu-visa-code-what-it-means-for-african-countries/ 38.  Michael Clemens and Kate Gough. 2018. “Can Regular Migration Channels Reduce Irregular Migration? Lessons for Europe from the United States.“ Center for Global Development (CGD) Brief. February 14, 2018. Washington, DC: Center for Global Development (CGD). https://www.cgdev.org/publication/ can-regular-migration-channels-reduce-irregular-migration-lessons-europe-united-states 39.  European Commission. 2011. “Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions: The Global Approach to Migration and Mobility.” Dispatched November 18, 2011. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/ legal-content/EN/ALL/?uri=CELEX:52011DC0743 40.  Marie Martin. 2012. “The Global Approach to Migration and Mobility: the state of play.” Statewatch Journal 22(2/3). October 2012. https://www.statewatch. org/media/documents/analyses/no-215-gamm-state-of-play.pdf 41.  European Commission. 2015. “Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions: A European Agenda on Migration.” Dispatched May 13, 2015. COM(2015) 240 final. https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/sites/homeaffairs/files/what-we-do/policies/european-agenda-migration/background-information/docs/ communication_on_the_european_agenda_on_migration_en.pdf 42.  International Organization for Migration (IOM). “The Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration (GCM).” https://www.iom.int/ global-compact-migration 30 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain favor.43 Objective 5 of the Compact appealed to states Both instruments aim to facilitate the movement of to “enhance availability and flexibility of pathways for third country workers to the EU to plug skills gaps. The regular migration.” Talent Pool aims to create a stock of available workers from which employers could hire directly, and Talent The Compact built upon a long history of various Partnerships aim to build this stock by investing in similar conventions and international agreements. For training, development, and systems strengthen- example, there are a host of ILO conventions that aim ing within countries of origin. The latter builds on a to better regulate and manage migration. Convention long history of developing mobility partnerships. For 97, Article 4, adopted in 1949, states “Measures shall be example, to strengthen cooperation between Europe taken as appropriate by each Member, within its juris- and key third countries, the EU-funded Mobility Part- diction, to facilitate the departure, journey and recep- nerships Facility (MPF)48 was established in 2016. tion of migrants for employment” and Convention Among other actions, it has funded four pilot projects 143, adopted in 1975, supports developing bilateral and on legal migration, between Lithuania and Nigeria; multilateral agreements to aid migration of workers. Belgium and Morocco; France and Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia; and Spain and Morocco. It is also about to Yet none of these agreements were able to help Euro- launch four more pathways: between Italy, Tunisia, and pean Member States come to an agreement on how Morocco; Slovakia and Moldova; Spain and Morocco; to manage migration. The vast differences inherent and Belgium and Senegal. Now in its third phase, the within Member States led to disagreements over both MPF has a total budget of around €15.7 million and legal immigration and asylum, and eventually ended in expects to be able to fund new labor mobility initia- a stalemate. As a result, in late 2019, the Von der Leyen tives in 2021. Various EU institutions are currently con- Commission enacted yet another European-wide ducting a review of past engagement on labor mobility migration agreement: the New Pact on Migration and initiatives to ascertain how they could be scaled up to Asylum.44 This New Pact has three pillars: stronger trust become comprehensive Talent Partnerships, but it is fostered by better and more effective procedures, fair likely that they will pursue similar bilateral or multilat- sharing of responsibility and solidarity, and a change eral approaches. of paradigm in cooperation with non-EU countries. Key to the New Pact is a mechanism to enhance burden Such a focus on promoting more skilled migration sharing for asylum seekers and support “returns spon- from third countries reflects the attitudes of people sorship” of failed asylum seekers.45 Yet it also sought throughout the EU. Data from the 2015 European to build new legal pathways for migration particularly Social Survey shows a clear preference for professional through two new instruments: the EU Talent Pool46 and or skilled immigrants, regardless of whether they are Talent Partnerships.47 coming from a poor European or a poor non-European 43.  The United Nations General Assembly officially adopted the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly, and Regular Migration in a vote on 19 December (PLS INCLUDE YEAR). There were 152 votes in favor, with five countries voting against, and twelve abstaining. The countries voting against were: Hungary, Poland, the USA, the Czech Republic, and Israel. The countries abstaining were: Algeria, Australia, Austria, Bulgaria, Chile, Italy, Latvia, Libya, Liechtenstein, Romania, Singapore, and Switzerland. See https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/1656414?ln=en 44.  European Commission. 2020. “A fresh start on migration: Building confidence and striking a new balance between responsibility and solidarity.” Press Release. September 23, 2020. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_1706 45.  Helen Dempster and Anita Käppeli. 2020. “The EU Migration Pact; Why Effective Returns are Necessary.” Center for Global Development (CGD) Blog. October 30, 2020. https://www.cgdev.org/blog/eu-migration-pact-why-effective-asylum-returns-are-necessary 46.  Martina Belmonte, Jonathan Chaloff, Maria Vincenza Desiderio, and Friedrich Poeschel. 2019. “Building an EU Talent Pool: A New Approach to Migration Management for Europe.” Paris: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). http://www.oecd.org/publications/building-an-eu-tal- ent-pool-6ea982a0-en.htm 47.  Helen Dempster and Michael Clemens. 2020. “The EU Migration Pact: Putting Talent Partnerships into Practice.” Center for Global Development (CGD) Blog. November 19, 2020. https://www.cgdev.org/blog/eu-migration-pact-putting-talent-partnerships-practice 48.  International Center for Migration Policy Development (ICMPD) “Mobility Partnerships Facility.” https://mobilitypartnershipfacility.eu/ Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 31 Figure 10. Sixty-two percent of Europeans are in favor of expanding skilled migration from specific poor non-European countries Percentage 100 9% 12% 25% 32% 80 23% 26% 60 33% 34% 44% 40 43% 33% 20 26% 23% 19% 10% 8% 0 Professionals from Professionals from poor Unskilled labourers Unskilled labourers from poor (specific) (specific) non-European from poor (specific) poor (specific) non-European European country country European country country Allow many Allow some Allow a few Allow none Source: Anthony Heath, Lindsay Richards, and Robert Ford. 2016. “How do Europeans differ in their attitudes to immigration?” Paper presented in session 1.1.2 ‘Attitudes towards immigrants: contextual and individual sources’ at the 3rd International ESS Conference, July 13-15, 2016, Lausanne, Switzerland. https://www.europeansocialsurvey.org/docs/ about/conference/HEATH_FORD_how-do-Europeans-differ.pdf Note: The survey question asked, “Do you support more skilled migration from X country” with ‘X country’ being the non-European country with the highest number of asylum applicants to the survey participant’s country. For most countries in Europe, the highest number of asylum applications were from countries in Africa. country. As can be seen from Figure 10, 62 percent unemployment rate stood at 8.3 percent;50 lower than are in favor of expanding skilled migration from poor in previous months of the pandemic but still dire.51 non-European countries. This builds on other studies European real GDP was projected to contract by 7 which have found a preference for skilled immigrants, percent in 2020, its biggest decline since World War especially those who are younger.49 II. While it is expected to rebound by 4.7 percent in 2021, this will depend on the course of the pandemic, It is uncertain whether the COVID-19 pandemic will and government and public reactions.52 As history has reduce both public and political support for immi- shown, such high unemployment rates are likely to gration in future. Business closures due to successive lead to less support for increased immigration, at least lockdowns have led to the highest unemployment in the short term.53 Yet there is cause for optimism. levels in years. In December 2020, the European COVID-19 has increased demand for foreign medical 49.  See Helen Dempster and Karen Hargrave. 2017. “Understanding public attitudes towards refugees and migrants.” Overseas Development Institute (ODI) Working paper 512. London: Overseas Development Institute (ODI) and Chatham House. https://www.odi.org/publications/10826-understanding-public-atti- tudes-towards-refugees-and-migrants; and Helen Dempster, Amy Leach, and Karen Hargrave. 2020. “Public attitudes towards immigration and immigrants: what people think, why, and how to influence them.” Overseas Development Institute (ODI) Working paper 588. London: Overseas Development Institute (ODI). https://www.odi.org/publications/17333-public-attitudes-towards-immigration-and-immigrants-what-people-think-why-and-how-influence-them 50.  Eurostat. 2021. “Unemployment statistics.” Data up to January 2021. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/ Unemployment_statistics 51.  Euronews. 2020. “New report paints bleak picture of EU unemployment, which has risen sharply in 2020.” Updated December 2, 2020. https://www. euronews.com/2020/12/02/new-report-paints-bleak-picture-of-eu-unemployment-which-has-risen-sharply-in-2020 52.  International Monetary Fund (IMF). 2020. “Europe. Whatever it takes: Europe’s response to COVID-19.” International Monetary Fund (IMF) Regional Economic Outlook. October 2020. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/EU/Issues/2020/10/19/REO-EUR-1021 53.  Fragomen. 2021. “Worldwide Immigration Trends Report 2021.” https://www.fragomen.com/about/news/worldwide-immigration-trends-reports 32 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain professionals and other essential (but lower-paid and migration, improving foreign policy relationships with lower-skilled) workers. For example, health care assis- third countries, and enhancing immigrant integration. tants and specialist medical professionals have recently appeared on the European Commission’s Analysis of Shortage and Surplus Occupations (2020) for the first Combat Demographic Decline and Skill time. In addition, there is increased public support for Shortages such foreign workers.54 Capitalizing on this support will be crucial. Europe is experiencing significant demographic shifts. By 2050, its working-age population (those aged between 20 and 64) is projected to decline by over 15 The Impact of Opening New Legal Migration percent from 2020 levels (Figure 11).55 This is owing to a Pathways combination of low birth rates and increased longevity. This is in line with similar shifts being felt throughout As described above, the EU and its Member States OECD countries. For example, without migration, over have a number of commitments under the New Pact the same time horizon, a selection of OECD countries on Migration and Asylum, the Compact, and the Joint are predicted to lose more than 92 million workers. Africa-EU Strategy to expand labor migration between These same OECD countries are expected to gain, in Africa and Europe. Honoring these commitments will the same time period, more than 100 million people require more than expanding the number of visas over 65 years of age.56 that are available to citizens from African states. It will require legal migration pathways that confer mean- This matters for two main reasons. First, pension ingful development benefits to countries of origin and schemes for retirement or old age incomes often destination alike. depend on transfers or contributions from those of working age. With the latter declining, governments By structuring these pathways so that their benefits will be forced into drastic and unpopular policy are clear, tangible, and salient, the EU and its Member moves, such as raising the retirement age, raising States can satisfy the needs of both political coalitions taxes, or cutting benefits.57 Second, the absolute and their citizens. The benefits of such structured reduction in the working-age population will lead pathways are myriad, including combatting demo- to substantial skill shortages within a number of key graphic decline and skill shortages, reducing irregular sectors (see Box 2). 54.  Kings College London. 2020. “Two-thirds of Britons value ‘low-skilled’ workers more since Covid-19 crisis.” May 18, 2020. London: Kings College London. https://www.kcl.ac.uk/news/two-thirds-of-britons-value-low-skilled-workers-more-since-covid-19-crisis 55.  Michael Clemens, Helen Dempster, and Kate Gough. 2019. “Promoting New Kinds of Legal Labour Migration Pathways Between Europe and Africa.” Center for Global Development (CGD) Brief. Washington, DC: Center for Global Development (CGD). https://www.cgdev.org/publication/ promoting-new-kinds-legal-labour-migration-pathways-between-europe-and-africa 56.  Japan, Germany, United States, South Korea, Spain, Canada, United Kingdom, France, Greece, Italy, Portugal, The Netherlands, Austria, Switzerland, Belgium, Australia, Finland, Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Ireland, Luxembourg, New Zealand, and Iceland. This analysis uses the UNDESA 2015 Population Projections and the zero-migration variant. See Rebekah Smith and Farah Hani. 2020. “Labor Mobility Partnerships: Expanding Opportunity with a Globally Mobile Workforce.” Final report of the Connecting International Labor Markets Working Group. https://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/labor-mobili- ty-partnerships-expanding-opportunity-globally-mobile-workforce.pdf 57.  Rebekah Smith and Farah Hani. 2020. “Labor Mobility Partnerships: Expanding Opportunity with a Globally Mobile Workforce.” Final report of the Connecting International Labor Markets Working Group. https://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/labor-mobility-partnerships-expanding-opportuni- ty-globally-mobile-workforce.pdf Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 33 Figure 11. Europe’s working-age population is projected to decline over 15 percent by 2050, while Sub-Saharan Africa’s is increasing Working-age population (20-64) (thousands) 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Europe Sub-Saharan Africa Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) Population Division World Population Prospects (2017). Note: This projection uses the “medium-variant,” which assumes a continuation of recent levels of net migration (the difference between the number of immigrants and the number of emigrants for a given country or group of countries). For more information, see UNDESA. 2017. “World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables.” https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2017_KeyFindings.pdf; and UNDESA. 2017. “Population Facts.” http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/ migration/publications/populationfacts/docs/MigrationPopFacts20178.pdf Figure 12. Most shortage occupations within Europe require a medium level of skills and qualifications Percentage 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Ac gin s Pr oun rs So S ram nts e are s ur yst velo c. n rs g a eb ess sts Pr elo ls Al fes ers up als W ns rs vi gine rs re chin s y tr ts um s or e s hi ge ha s El ope ch s tr to ics m . Sh vy t Cle ers Co et driv s re o s fin ers W ers kl s s se ec n er r k Pl ian ot rp er ac id ec ter e ic t m ck er nc al w er ic er er as er e c. ev a ec n c ee w tw me e te en to o io ne m n ec ra an so d ion cc n de n as rs n sin W rof aly sin em p p og ta El ista M Ca b bl ee u an te rk ish Br eld ay lth l m o ai m n l o sio ic al Doc at C s gp a a le o ft of r ea ia ic ic ca Ci ar H str tr S r ec ea du F El H in N nd M la ur ra N tu ul ric Ag % high % low Source: Analysis of Eurostat data in John McGrath. 2020. “Analysis of shortage and surplus occupations 2020.” Brussels: European Commission Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion. https://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catId=738&langId=en&pubId=8356&type=2&furtherPubs=no 34 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain Box 2. The definitions of “skills”, “skill gaps”, “skill shortages”, and “skill mismatches” There is little agreement in the literature as to claim that there are “not enough” doctors, engi- what exactly “skills” are and how they should be neers, etc.). “Skill mismatches” occur when there is defined.1 According to the OECD (2017) “skills” either an oversupply or undersupply of skills within refer to both cognitive and noncognitive abilities specific labor markets. Such mismatches can lead and to abilities that are specific to a particular job, to shortages. For example, it has been argued that occupation, or sector.2 there is no absolute labor shortage within the EU, but while some professions are in surplus in some There is often a mismatch between the skills that countries, they are in shortage in others.4 are available within a particular labor market, and the skills in demand by the employers within that In this report, we are going to focus on profes- labor market. Many terms are used to describe this sions for which a majority of high-income Euro- mismatch.3 Firstly, “skill gaps” often refer to the fail- pean countries report having a “skill shortage”. ure of the education system to equip school leavers To reduce these shortages, countries have a range with basic needed skills. Secondly, “skill shortages” of options including stimulating automation, arise when employers cannot find the staff with the increasing wages and working conditions, mobiliz- required skills they need within the accessible labor ing the un/under-employed, and attracting work- market at the ongoing rate of pay (for example, the ers from abroad.5 1.  Giorgio Brunello and Patricia Wruuck. 2019. “Skill Shortages and Skill Mismatch in Europe: A Review of the Literature.” IZA Discussion Paper 12346. May 2019. Bonn: IZA Institute of Labor Economics. http://ftp.iza.org/dp12346.pdf 2.  Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) 2017. “Getting Skills Right: Skills for Jobs Indicators.” Paris: OECD Publishing. https://www.oecd.org/employment/getting-skills-right-skills-for-jobs-indicators-9789264277878-en.htm 3.  Peter Cappelli. 2014. “Skill Gaps, Skill Shortages and Skill Mismatches: Evidence for the US.” National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Working Paper 20382. August 2014. Cambridge: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_ papers/w20382/w20382.pdf 4.  John McGrath. 2020. “Analysis of shortage and surplus occupations 2020.” Brussels: European Commission Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion. https://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catId=738&langId=en&pubId=8356&type=2&furtherPubs=no 5.  Dafne Reymen, Maarten Gerard, Paul De Beer, Anja Meierkord, Marli Paskov, Valentina Di Stasio, Vicki Donlevy, Ian Atkinson, Agnieszka Makulec, Ulrike Famira-Mühlberger, and Hedig Lutz. “Labor Market Shortages in the European Union.” March 2015. Brussels: European Parliament Policy Department A to the Committee on Employment and Social Affairs. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2015/542202/ IPOL_STU%282015%29542202_EN.pdf Skill shortages are “a marker of growing, dynamic, construction, engineering, mechanics, ICT, and hos- international enterprises” and as such are more likely pitality. Fifty-five percent of these occupations require to arise in specific economic sectors.58 The most recent medium-level qualifications, while 28 percent and 25 analysis, completed by the European Commission in percent require low and high qualifications, respective- 2021, shows that out of the top 28 shortage occupa- ly.59 Additional analysis by the European Commission tions, all but three fell into six buckets: health care, in 2014 found that, within many of these occupations, 58.  Cedefop. 2015. “Skill shortages and gaps in European enterprises: striking a balance between vocational education and training and the labour market.” Cedefop reference series; No 102. Luxembourg: Publications Office. http://dx.doi.org/10.2801/042499 59.  John McGrath. 2020. “Analysis of shortage and surplus occupations 2020.” Brussels: European Commission Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion. https://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catId=738&langId=en&pubId=8356&type=2&furtherPubs=no Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 35 it was a combination of a lack of relevant applicants and migration. For example, only 1.5 percent of the EUTF applicants not wanting to do the job that had led to the went toward expanding migration opportunities.63 shortage.60 There is little evidence as to whether expanded legal These skill shortages are having an impact on the ability pathways can substitute for irregular migration. In of employers to invest, expand, and remain productive. 2015, Germany’s policy move to open up a legal migra- The European Investment Bank’s (EIB) Group Survey on tion route to those from the Western Balkans dramat- Investment and Investment Finance (EIBIS) shows that ically reduced irregular arrivals.64 Evidence from the the limited availability of skilled workers has increas- Mexico-United States border has shown that under ingly become a concern for firms. In 2017, its survey large demographic and economic pressure, increasing found that 72 percent of firms consider skill shortages legal migration pathways are necessary to curb irreg- to have been an obstacle to investment in the previ- ular migration, but they are not sufficient. As a result, ous year, with 40 percent considering it a major issue.61 they are only effective when combined with robust Responding to such skill shortages will depend on the border enforcement.65 Likewise, such enforcement sector being discussed. Improving wages and working measures have only been effective when coupled with conditions are strategies frequently used by the ICT an expansion in legal pathways. This report is not claim- and sales occupations, while increasing international ing that expanding legal migration opportunities from recruitment is often used in more constrained sectors Sub-Saharan Africa to Europe would stop all irregular such as health care.62 migration but, if well designed, executed, scaled, and supported by complementary measures, they could go some way to reducing such movements. As such, it Reduce Irregular Migration should be an essential part of European policy making on the issue. As highlighted above, irregular migration to Europe has a range of negative consequences. Reducing irregular migration has therefore long been a cornerstone of EU Improve Foreign Policy Relationships with migration policy, with huge financial resources com- Third Countries mitted to enhanced border security, tackling smuggling networks, and addressing the root causes of migration As outlined above, the Joint Africa-EU Strategy aims to in countries of origin. Yet there has been little emphasis, promote enhanced dialogue, institutional cooperation, either in rhetoric or funding, on the role that expanded and political relations between both continents. Inher- legal pathways could plan in reducing irregular ent within this strategy is the recognition that both 60.  Karin Attström, Sebastian Niedlich, Kees Sandvliet, HannaMaija Kuhn, and Edmund Beavor. 2014. “Mapping and Analysing Bottleneck Vacancies in EU Labour Markets: Overview report.” September 19, 2014. Brussels: European Commission. https://ec.europa.eu/eures/downloadSectionFile.do?fileId=8010 61.  Stéphanie Jamet, Erik Canton, Anna Thum-Thysen, Anneleen Vandeplas, Peter Voigt, Patricia Wruuck, Mantas Sekmokas, Konstantinos Pouliakas, Lidia Salvatore, Ernesto Villalba-Garcia, Lars Thies, and Marcus Tamm. 2018. “Investing in Europe’s future: the role of education and skills.” European Investment Bank (EIB) Thematic Study. Luxembourg: European Investment Bank (EIB). https://espas.secure.europarl.europa.eu/orbis/sites/default/files/generated/ document/en/EIB-investing_in_europes_future_the_role_of_education_and_skills_en.pdf 62.  Karin Attström, Sebastian Niedlich, Kees Sandvliet, HannaMaija Kuhn, and Edmund Beavor. 2014. “Mapping and Analysing Bottleneck Vacancies in EU Labour Markets: Overview report.” September 19, 2014. Brussels: European Commission. https://ec.europa.eu/eures/downloadSectionFile.do?fileId=8010 63.  Tuuli Raty and Raphael Shilhav. 2020. “The EU Trust Fund for Africa: Trapped between aid policy and migration politics.” Oxfam Policy Paper. Brussels: Oxfam International. https://www.oxfam.org/en/research/eu-trust-fund-africa-trapped-between-aid-policy-and-migration-politics 64.  Jessica Bither and Astrid Ziebarth. 2018. “Creating Legal Pathways to Reduce Irregular Migration? What We Can Learn from Germany’s “Western Balkan Regulation”.” October 8, 2018. Berlin: The German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS). https://www.gmfus.org/publications/ creating-legal-pathways-reduce-irregular-migration-what-we-can-learn-germanys-western 65.  Michael Clemens and Kate Gough. 2018. “Can Regular Migration Channels Reduce Irregular Migration? Lessons for Europe from the United States.“ Center for Global Development (CGD) Brief. February 14, 2018. Washington, DC: Center for Global Development (CGD). https://www.cgdev.org/publication/ can-regular-migration-channels-reduce-irregular-migration-lessons-europe-united-states 36 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain continents should be equal players in such discussions, in migrant countries of origin, and there have been and that the views of both should be heard. Yet histor- some recent policy moves to compensate countries of ically, agreements on migration with third countries origin for sending workers.68 By opening pathways that have been dictated by the desires of European coun- enhance development and reduce brain drain, coupled tries. Aid and capacity building have been provided to with targeted aid investment, Europe can achieve its enhance migration management infrastructure, border own objectives while building a true partnership of security measures, and nominal economic development equals. investments. Despite an increased focus on legal migra- tion instruments, agreements on return and reintegra- tion of failed asylum seekers remains the top priority of Enhance Immigrant Integration the New Pact on Migration and Asylum. As mentioned earlier, although negotiations are ongoing, many African There is no consensus on the definition of integration, countries have so far refused to sign formal return and but most agree it is centered around the process by readmission agreements with the European Commis- which migrants become accepted into societies.69 Mea- sion. This has led observers to conclude that the terms suring migrant integration is often done by looking at of the return and readmission agreements set forth by the differences in outcomes between migrants and the Commission do not align with the mutual develop- non-migrants in employment, education, health, and ment interest of countries such as Nigeria which would social inclusion. The OECD’s Indicators of Immigrant rather see regular migration pathways and sustainable Integration (2015) found that in virtually all coun- developmental support along with the returns of irreg- tries, immigrants experience higher income inequal- ular migrants.66 ity and precarity, lower employment levels, and higher under-employment levels. Some of this gap can be Building a true partnership of equals will require an explained by the concept of skill mismatch, as described understanding of the views of African leaders and above. Yet this lack of immigrant integration can lead acting on them. Europe’s need to develop agreements to tensions between immigrants and host communi- on return and reintegration, coupled with demo- ties, and reduced support among host communities for graphic and skills pressure, should put more bargain- immigration overall. ing power in the hands of African leaders.67 Besides meaningful legal migration pathways to provide job Expanding legal migration pathways from third coun- opportunities for Africa’s growing youth population, tries to Europe will not, in itself, enhance integration. Africa’s leaders would like to ensure that development Yet there are two ways in which Europe could design investment is channeled toward budget support and these pathways to aid integration and improve public systems strengthening to support Africa in its own job support for immigration overall. The first is to focus creation. Slowly, the views of European Member States on skill shortages. Bringing in migrants with a partic- are coming in line with this approach. Member States ular set of skills which are in demand within Europe have frequently expressed concerns about brain drain will ensure that these people can access meaningful 66.  Kwaku Arhim-Sam. 2019. ”The Political Economy of Migration Governance in Nigeria.” Freiburg: Arnold-Bergstraesser Institute (ABI). https://www. medam-migration.eu/fileadmin/Dateiverwaltung/MEDAM-Webseite/Publications/Research_Papers/WAMiG_country_reports/WAMiG_Nigeria_country_report/ WAMiG_Nigeria_country_report.pdf 67.  Helen Dempster. 2020. “Four Reasons to Keep Developing Legal Migration Pathways During COVID-19.” Center for Global Development (CGD) Blog. May 15, 2020. https://www.cgdev.org/blog/four-reasons-keep-developing-legal-migration-pathways-during-covid-19 68.  UK Parliament. 2021. “Doctors and Nurses (Developing Countries) Bill.” Originated in the House of Commons, session 2019-21. Last updated: January 14, 2021. https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/2804 69.  International Organization for Migration (IOM). “Migrant Integration.” Migration Data Portal. Last updated September 24, 2020. https://migrationdata- portal.org/themes/migrant-integration Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 37 job opportunities as soon as they arrive. This will help not be the best option for all countries and sectors; yet support their integration within the workplace and it offers promise within key sectors with skill shortages their society. The second is to start small. Bringing in while having the positive impacts outlined above. small numbers of people (at least in the beginning) will ensure that authorities can track their integra- Finally, a word on actors. There has long been a focus tion outcomes and change the design of the pathway on trying to harmonize training and qualification if necessary. It also allows host communities time to requirements across European Member States to aid adjust to new immigrant groups. To build trust in the the integration of third country nationals into the pathway among both employers and policy makers, European labor market. An extension of such efforts the pathway could start by facilitating temporary (e.g. has been included in the New Pact, including revisions two-to-three-year) visas with a view to eventually sup- to the Blue Card and Long-Term Residents Directive. porting permanent movement if desired. Yet creating Talent Partnerships that span the entirety of the European Union will be incredibly difficult. There are many ways in which Europe could expand Member States have different views of labor migra- legal migration pathways from third countries, includ- tion, different demographic trends, different skill ing liberalizing formal immigration systems, creating needs, different languages, and different education shortage occupation lists, and introducing new bilat- and training systems. Instead of attempting to agree eral partnerships. In this report, we are going to focus on common EU-wide initiatives, policy makers should on this latter route, otherwise known as the Talent explore bilateral or multilateral agreements between Partnerships approach envisioned in the New Pact on “coalitions of the willing” that could, over time, scale to Migration and Asylum. We would stress that this may include more European Member States.70 70.  Helen Dempster and Michael Clemens. 2020. “The EU Migration Pact: Putting Talent Partnerships int Practice.” Center for Global Development (CGD) Blog. November 19, 2020. https://www.cgdev.org/blog/eu-migration-pact-putting-talent-partnerships-practice 38 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain Section 2: The Innovation Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 39 Many high-income countries throughout Europe The Global Skill Partnership are predicted to experience significant demographic decline in the coming decades, leading to substantial A Global Skill Partnership is a bilateral labor migration skill shortages across a range of mid-skill occupations. agreement between a country of origin and a country And many low-income countries throughout Sub-Sa- of destination.72 It is a way to regulate how migration haran Africa are predicted to experience massive happens in a context where the labor force is shrink- growth in their working-age populations, requiring ing in a country of destination but growing rapidly in a increased opportunities at home and abroad. Con- country of origin, resulting in increased labor market necting these two labor markets, while promoting pressure. The model can address legitimate concerns an increase in the global stock of skilled workers, will about the impact of migration on both sides. require fresh innovations. In this section, we outline one such innovation—the Global Skill Partnership—and The country of origin agrees to train people in skills spe- how it could be implemented. cifically and immediately needed in both the country of origin and destination. Some of those trainees choose While the remainder of the report mostly focuses on to stay and increase human capital in the country of the Global Skill Partnership, it is worth highlighting origin (the “home” track); others migrate to the country that Nigeria can benefit from all kinds of avenues for of destination (the “away” track). The country of desti- safe, orderly, and regular migration. Nigeria should nation provides technology and finance for the training improve its managed labor migration systems to facil- and broader systems support, and receives migrants itate overseas employment through well managed with the skills to contribute to the maximum extent migration policies and to complement ongoing efforts and integrate quickly (see Figure 13). to curb irregular migration. The strengths and weak- nesses in Nigeria’s Federal overseas employment The Global Skill Partnership model was first proposed systems are highlighted in a companion World Bank by CGD Fellow Michael Clemens in 2012 as a way to report titled “Of Roads Less Travelled: Assessing the regulate skilled migration to benefit countries of Potential of Economic Migration to Provide Overseas origin, destination, and the migrants themselves.73 The Jobs For Nigeria’s Youth”.71 Among others, the com- model was expanded upon in a CGD brief in late 2017 panion report places international migration within where it was applied to a potential nursing partnership the broader labor market context in Nigeria, carefully between Eastern and Western Europe.74 In December stressing the push and pull factors that lead to both 2018, after 18 months of consultations, negotiations, regular and irregular migration and makes the case and public debate, 163 countries adopted the Global for why more structured regular migration will be Compact for Safe, Regular, and Orderly Migration. The one of the crucial ways in which Nigeria can support Global Skill Partnership is the only concrete initiative education to work transition for aspiring Nigerian included in this landmark agreement. Today, there are jobseekers. three pilots of the model underway: between Belgium 71.  Samik Adhikari, Sarang Chaudhary, and Nkechi Linda Ekeator. 2021. “Of Roads Less Travelled: Assessing the Potential of Economic Migration to Provide Overseas Jobs for Nigeria’s Youth.” World Bank, Washington, DC 72.  Center for Global Development (CGD). “Global Skill Partnerships.” https://www.cgdev.org/gsp 73.  Michael Clemens. 2014. “Global Skill Partnerships: A Proposal for Technical Training in a Mobile World.” Center for Global Development (CGD) Policy Paper 040. May 2014. Washington, DC: Center for Global Development (CGD). https://www.cgdev.org/publication/ global-skill-partnerships-proposal-technical-training-mobile-world 74.  Michael Clemens. 2017. “Global Skill Partnerships: A Proposal for Technical Training in a Mobile World.” Center for Global Development (CGD) Brief. October 11, 2017. Washington, DC: Center for Global Development (CGD). https://www.cgdev.org/publication/ global-skill-partnerships-proposal-technical-training-in-mobile-world-brief 40 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain Figure 13. The Global Skill Partnership model Technical training (including financial and technology transfer from the country to destination) Integration training (language, culture awareness) Option to stay Option to migrate Country + Skills + Skills + Earning potential Country of of Origin + Earning potential + Able to migrate legally and safely Destination and Morocco in ICT, between Germany and Kosovo or should, be scaled to meet the needs of millions as out- in construction, and between Australia and the Pacific lined above. It is an example of an innovation within the Islands in a range of vocational skills. migration space that can be used when governments want to develop a long-term pipeline of talent globally. There are other mechanisms, such as the EU Talent Pool, How it Differs from Other Models which aim to facilitate the migration of already qualified talent. These, and many more, innovations are needed if Over the past several decades, there have been many we are to meet the scale of the problem. arrangements agreed upon to facilitate the movement of skilled professionals around the world. A Global As described earlier, many high-income countries have Skill Partnership is unique and distinct from these attempted to use migration to plug significant skill short- prior arrangements. In fact, the model was explicitly ages across a range of occupations. In doing so, Euro- designed to respond to many of the negative impacts pean countries have typically used two policy tools: of these arrangements. Table 2 identifies four of the “labor market tests” and “shortage occupation lists”.75 primary differences. The former requires employers to provide evidence of their efforts to source labor locally before looking inter- However, a caveat must be issued first. As described nationally. And the latter includes a list of occupations above, the scale of the mismatch between labor demand whereby employers do not need to jump through such and supply globally is vast. By 2050, Europe will have lost hoops. Yet both methods attempt to attract labor from 92 million workers while at the same time, Sub-Saharan third countries without guaranteeing some form of Africa will have gained two billion. The Global Skill Part- reciprocal investment. Countries of destination would nership could, and should, be scaled to train and move receive qualified workers without compensating those greater numbers of people than the hundreds involved in workers’ countries of origin for providing them with the current pilots. Yet it is unlikely that the model could, such needed skills. 75.  Martin Ruhs. 2020. “Expanding Legal Labour Migration Pathways to the EU: Will This Time Be Different?” Instituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) Commentary Issue 20|95. December 2020. Rome: Instituto Affari Internazionali (IAI). https://www.iai.it/en/pubblicazioni/ expanding-legal-labour-migration-pathways-eu-will-time-be-different Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 41 Table 2. How the Global Skill Partnership differs from other migration models Existing migration models… The Global Skill Partnership… … Facilitate the entry of already qualified third country pro- … Targets those without existing skills, and trains them in fessionals. Such models could merely open up visa schemes skills needed in both the country of origin and the country of to third country nationals or couple a new pathway with some destination. Most, if not all, training occurs within the country investment in language and cultural awareness training. of origin. Those on the “away” track could also receive language and cultural awareness training. … Do little to support training institutions in countries of … Strengthens training institutions, including investing in cur- origin. Even when language and cultural awareness training is riculum development, equipment, facilities, and the training of delivered in countries of origin, it usually is delivered through trainers. This ensures the country of origin receives a tangible parallel training systems without a connection to local curric- and visible benefit from engaging in such pathways. ula and institutions. … May not explicitly link the third country nationals entering … Works directly with employers in countries of destination with employer demand. Some migration models liberalize visa to ensure entry, placement, and the maximum contribution by systems, or promote the entry of skilled workers, with little migrant trainees. Global Skill Partnerships are explicitly driven regard for specific employer demand. There is therefore little by employer demand, and therefore any implementation must investment in employee integration. engage them in the design of the training program, and the selection and integration of trainees. … Focus on low- or high-skill professions. Most migration … Focuses on mid-skill professions. Given the skill shortages arrangements fall within two buckets. Either they facilitate the demonstrated above, it is in mid-skill professions such as short-term (seasonal) entry of low-skill third country workers, health care, construction, engineering, ICT, hospitality, and often for agricultural or horticultural work, or they facilitate the tourism where an expansion in the number of skilled workers long-term (often permanent) entry of high-skill third country is needed. Given the enduring nature of these shortages, the workers. Global Skill Partnership model could be used to facilitate long- term (two to three years) yet temporary movement, or perma- nent movement. Such pathways are often accused of contributing to with mobility. Benefits could include: trainees who are brain drain, the notion that qualified workers are adequately prepared for labor markets, both domes- leaving (often low-income) countries for better oppor- tic and international, thereby increasing their employ- tunities abroad,76 thereby depleting their origin country ment prospects, future earnings, and economic of much needed workers and other associated benefits.77 livelihoods; plugging skills gaps in both domestic and To combat brain drain, many countries of origin aim to international labor markets by increasing the global restrict the number of people moving abroad through stock of talent within a certain sector; and broader eco- various policy interventions with limited success. Rec- nomic development through remittances, skill trans- ognizing the issue, particularly within the health care fer, systems strengthening, private sector investment, profession, many countries of destination have barred and diaspora engagement. Despite these benefits, the recruitment from low-income countries altogether.78 ILO has noted that “skills aspects are rarely considered in all phases of the design, negotiation, implementa- Yet such an approach ignores the benefits that could tion, monitoring and evaluation of these [bilateral come from more closely linking education and training labour migration] agreements.”79 76.  Sunita Dodani and Ronald E LaPorte. 2005. “Brain drain from developing countries: how can brain drain be converted into wisdom gain?” Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine 98(11): 487-491. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1275994/ 77.  Michael Clemens. 2014. “A Case against Taxes and Quotas on High-Skill Emigration.” Center for Global Development (CGD) Working paper 363. Washington, DC: Center for Global Development (CGD). https://www.cgdev.org/publication/ case-against-taxes-and-quotas-high-skill-emigration-working-paper-363 78.  Amani Siyam and Mario Roberto Dal Poz (eds.) 2014. “Migration of health workers: The WHO Code of Practice and the Global Economic Crisis.” May 2014. Geneva: World Health Organization (WHO) and the Migration Policy Institute (MPI). https://www.who.int/hrh/migration/migration_book/en/ 79.  International Labour Organization (ILO). 2020. “Guidelines for skills modules in bilateral labour migration agreements.” Geneva: International Labour Organization (ILO). https://www.ilo.org/global/topics/labour-migration/publications/WCMS_748723/lang--en/index.htm 42 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain It is here that the Global Skill Partnership model distin- guishes itself from other migration models. The dual Box 3. The Global Skill Partnership on track approach ensures that there is an increase in the Migration supply of skilled workers remaining in the country of origin, thereby combatting brain drain. It also ensures The migration model described here is not there is a steady stream of investment going into to be confused with the broader Global Skill improving both training and systems overall, thereby Partnership on Migration. This partnership compensating countries of origin for producing quali- was launched in December 2018 between the fied workers for markets abroad. ILO, IOM, United Nations Educational, Sci- entific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), The implementation of the Global Skill Partnership International Employers Organization (IOE), must be highly context specific, driven by public and and International Trade Union Confederation private sector demand, as well as the requirements of (ITUC). The aim of this partnership is to mobi- immigration policies on both sides. For example, the lize the technical expertise and constituencies training provided to people in the two tracks could be of the organizations to “support governments, identical or differential. The former provides econ- employers, workers and their organizations, omies of scale—providing the same training to those educational institutions and training provid- on the “home” and “away” tracks makes it simpler ers, and other stakeholders, to develop and to develop and execute a curriculum, and the same recognize the skills of migrant workers with training facilities can be used. Yet the latter allows a particular focus on youth.”1 Implementing the model to adapt to different demands within the new legal migration pathways is therefore countries included. The model can be used to facil- just one small part of this broader framework itate permanent or temporary movement, with the which is aiming to better regulate migration latter including a return and reintegration compo- and improve outcomes for migrant workers. nent. And it is recommended that such partnerships Source: International Labour Organization (ILO). “Global Skills start in pilot phase, to test assumptions, align incen- Partnership on Migration.” December 10, 2018. https://www.ilo. org/skills/pubs/WCMS_653993/lang--en/index.htm tives, build trust, and assess the impact, before scaling. More information about the implementation of such 1.  International Labour Organization (ILO). 2020. “Guidelines schemes is described below. for skills modules in bilateral labour migration agreements.” Geneva: International Labour Organization (ILO). https:// www.ilo.org/global/topics/labour-migration/publications/ WCMS_748723/lang--en/index.htm How the Innovation Seizes the Opportunity The Global Skill Partnership was explicitly designed to respond to many of the concerns and challenges with Where are Global Skill Partnerships cur- existing migration pathways, and therefore can help rently being implemented and what are we address many of the goals inherent in both Europe learning? and Africa’s migration policies. Table 3 outlines these factors, showing how existing policies address these As described above, there are currently three Global opportunities, and how the Global Skill Partnership Skill Partnerships in operation: between Belgium and innovation could address them. Morocco in ICT, between Germany and Kosovo in Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 43 Table 3. How Global Skill Partnerships could address the opportunities explored above The Opportunity How Existing Policy Addresses It How the Innovation (Global Skill Partnerships) Addresses It Nigeria Growing unemploy- Mostly through domestic job creation programs Qualified youth can get access to jobs overseas ment rates without considering a component on overseas thereby relieving some of the pressure on the jobs for qualified youth. domestic labor market. Skills mismatches Reform the domestic skills development system Align domestic training curriculum with global and align it with domestic industry standards. standards in priority sectors at home and abroad. Irregular migration Address the root causes of migration through Displace some of the irregular migration by chan- domestic job creation programs, awareness cam- neling qualified irregular migrants through regular paigns, and border controls. routes. Brain drain No ban on international migrants but skilled Increases the stock of skilled professionals at migration is viewed as a net loss of human capital. home and abroad. Europe Demographic decline Mobilize the un/under-employed, increase Open migration pathways at mid-skill levels, and skill shortages automation, and raise the retirement age; some where there is greatest demand, to provide a new nontargeted interventions to expand migration cohort of working-age people. pathways at high-skill levels. Irregular migration Address the root causes of migration through Displace some of the irregular migration by chan- domestic job creation programs, awareness cam- neling qualified irregular migrants through regular paigns, and border controls. routes. Foreign policy rela- Provide aid and capacity-building support, while Expand investment in education, training, and tionships with third attempting to sign returns and readmissions systems, to expand economic development for all. countries agreements. Immigrant integration Support existing migrants with skill recognition Bring over new workers with targeted skills and credentialling efforts. required in the labor market, thereby satisfying public concerns and facilitating cohesion. construction, and between Australia and the Pacific Tunisia, as part of the German development agency Islands in various vocational skills. These are just three GIZ-implemented project, “Towards a Holis- of over 60 legal migration pathways that are either tic Approach to Labour Migration Governance current or completed around the world.80 and Labour Mobility in North Africa (THAMM).” (See Box 21.) • Belgium and Morocco. Called PALIM, this project • Germany and Kosovo. Germany is a world leader is currently in the pilot stage. One hundred and on legal migration pathways and has a number of twenty people in both Belgium and Morocco are innovative projects in the works all around the being trained in specific ICT skills; 40 have chosen world. In 2019, CGD reviewed these projects and to join the “away track” and are prepared to move found that their development impact could be to the Flanders region of Belgium, and the other enhanced if training was moved to the country of 80 will stay in Morocco. The program may soon origin.81 This partnership with Kosovo is just one of be expanded to 400 trainees across Morocco and a series of construction pilot projects the German 80. See https://www.cgdev.org/gsp 81.  Michael Clemens, Helen Dempster, and Kate Gough. 2019. “Maximizing the Shared Benefits of Legal Migration Pathways: Lessons from Germany’s Skills Partnerships.” Center for Global Development (CGD) Policy Paper 150. Washington, DC: Center for Global Development (CGD). https://www.cgdev.org/ publication/maximizing-shared-benefits-legal-migration-pathways 44 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain development agency GIZ is hoping to implement More lessons learned have been folded into the forth- around the world in the coming years. (See Box 16.) coming section on risks and mitigation measures. • Australia and various Pacific Islands. This scheme, called the Australia Pacific Training Coalition (APTC), has been in place since 2006. It is now in its Why Don’t More Global Skill Partnerships (or third stage and has over 15,000 graduates to date, More Legal Pathways for Migration) Exist? primarily in semi-skilled professions such as hos- pitality, tourism, and various trades, especially Given the vast potential benefits outlined above, it is construction. It recently implemented the “dual useful to explore why Global Skill Partnerships are not track” model, working closely with the new Pacific already widespread within the migration and devel- Labour Facility to train for skills in demand in both opment policy space. In recent years, interest has countries. increased with two new pilots agreed on and at least five more currently in development. Further, the Talent Partnerships are ostensibly similar to the Global All three projects have identified similar lessons Skill Partnership model in that they purport to better learned, many of which have been highlighted in link labor market needs with education and training an International Center for Migration Policy Devel- abroad.83 Yet despite this interest, the actual number of opment (ICMPD) report from 2020.82 These lessons pilots (and the number of people being trained within include: them) remains small. The reasons are myriad. • The importance of time and flexibility to build Coordination failures. While aid investments are trust between the different stakeholders involved. designed and driven by country of destination gov- This requirement renders projects time consuming ernments, they are rarely connected to the needs of and expensive, but is imperative to establish a solid employers within countries of destination and origin. foundation for the implementation of both a pilot Employers have, for decades, been concerned about and at scale. skill shortages, but often do not think about recruiting • The need for thorough skill mapping and research abroad, or do not have the resources to do so. Further, to understand, in detail, labor market needs in both the solution is often to recruit already trained profes- the country of origin and destination. Without this, sionals, rather than invest in building the global stock the pilot runs the risk of training for a skill that is of talent. For those employers who are interested in not in demand among employers. this route, the cost, risk, and time involved in such an • The necessity for cooperation between public and approach can be daunting. private stakeholders to build alliances and explore common interests. Yet often pilots did not bring the Lack of support on groundwork. Working with the private sector in as early as possible, which resulted government in the country of destination can be dif- in further friction or inadequate placing of trainees. ficult. The remit for developing such partnerships sits 82.  Diana Stefanescu. 2020. “Partnerships for Mobility at the Crossroads: Lessons Learnt From 18 Months of Implementation of EU Pilot Projects on Legal Migration.” Vienna: International Center for Migration Policy Development (ICMPD). https://mobilitypartnershipfacility.eu/what-we-do/publications/ partnerships-for-mobility-at-the-crossroads-lessons-learnt-from-18-months-of-implementation-of-eu-pilot-projects-on-legal-migration 83.  Helen Dempster and Michael Clemens. 2020. “The EU Migration Pact: Putting Talent Partnerships into Practice.” Center for Global Development (CGD) Blog. November 19, 2020. https://www.cgdev.org/blog/eu-migration-pact-putting-talent-partnerships-practice Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 45 awkwardly between ministries of development, inte- origin and destination to show employers what is pos- rior, foreign affairs, and the ministry responsible for the sible, such that they can demand it, such that govern- area at hand e.g., health. These ministries all have dif- ments can expand it. Such coordinated investment is ferent perspectives on the role of labor migration and still nascent. development and agreeing on a set path that satisfies all political and public constituencies is rarely easy. Com- pounding this difficulty is the fact there is currently no Choosing Sectors: A Framework international or nongovernmental organization set up to facilitate such partnerships. ICMPD, which imple- To implement a Global Skill Partnership, one of the mented MPF and advises Member States on labor migra- first steps is for countries of origin and destination tion issues, does take some responsibility for supporting to decide which sectors to focus on. Deciding these states which are interested in expanding legal migration sectors will dictate which actors need to be involved in pathways. But its role is not comprehensive, nor is it set negotiations, which countries to partner with, which up entirely for that purpose. funding instruments to draw on, how training should be developed and implemented, how development Costs and time. As indicated above, the implementa- assistance should be channeled, and the potential for tion of such pathways can be expensive and time-con- scale. While there is no rule of thumb for picking the suming. Most of the pilot programs highlighted in this sector in which to implement a Global Skill Partner- document built new coordination structures, training ship, we have developed a rough framework which institutions, curricula, and, often, visa schemes from can be used by both countries of origin and coun- scratch. Invariably, setting up these mechanisms took tries of destination (Figure 14). The following five ele- at least one year and a huge cost to both development ments are ranked in order of most important to least ministries and international organizations to (even- important: existing skill shortage, employer demand, tually) move only a small number of people. Many political will and public interest, specialized training new legal pathways are criticized for this imbalance requirements, and the potential for remittances and and such criticism can deter other governments from skill transfer. developing similar innovations. There seems to be little thought given to transitioning a pilot model to scale, in a way that reduces the unit cost of the pathway while Figure 14. A Framework for Choosing Sectors training and moving more people. Transitioning into for a Global Skill Partnership a sustainable model whereby the private sector and/ or the migrants themselves co-pay for the training has Existing Skill Shortage only been trialed in a few instances and there is little written about the pros and cons of such an arrange- Employer Demand ment. There are undoubtedly governments that feel these complexities outweigh the productivity losses Political Will and Public Interest from skill shortages. Specialized Training Requirements In short, governments will not act until employers push them to, but employers will not push for any- thing until the groundwork is laid by governments. Potential for Remittances and Skill Transfer It takes coordinated investment by both country of 46 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain Where Is There a Skill Shortage? COVID-19 has further highlighted the role of migrant workers within these sectors and may have created As described earlier, defining a skill shortage is dif- more public support for expanding migration path- ficult. It requires sector-based analysis, over a long- ways within these in-demand sectors (see Box 4).84 time horizon, to ascertain where employer demand is not being met. Box 2 shows that this demand may The norm is to focus on a skill that is in demand in not be met for a number of reasons, including a lack both countries. This makes training cost effective of skills within the local labor market and/or an abso- and economies of scale achievable. However, it is not lute lack of people available to be employed. Under- essential that the skill in demand be exactly the same standing the reason for the shortage is crucial. With within both the country of origin and the country of some sectors, the right approach may be to work destination. Take, for example, the health care sector. with employers to raise wages and improve working A country of destination may be in need of qualified conditions to attract local workers, or to work with primary care nurses, while a country of origin may education and training institutions to ensure they be in need of community health workers. The train- are exporting a certain type of worker. With other ing could deliver a certain period of basic skills train- sectors, the skill shortage may be absolute. Employers ing after which those on the “home” track could move may not have the flexibility to raise wages or improve on to specialist community health worker training, working conditions (particularly difficult for public and those on the “away” track could undertake more sector employers or within low-skill industries such intensive training in primary care skills. Training can as agriculture) or building the required level of skills accommodate these differences. within the domestic population may be a decade- long project. Within these sectors, migration may be In this report, we have focused on exploring three of the only option. Quantifying the number of migrants the sectors outlined above: health care, construction, required within a certain sector over a long-time and ICT. Notably, there are large skill shortages within horizon is crucial to understanding the scale of need the tourism and hospitality sector that have been focus and therefore the demands on the new partnership. of the APTC, the biggest Global Skill Partnership oper- ational today. However, the pandemic has reduced and The previous sections focused on skill shortages shifted demand within this sector leaving little appe- within Nigeria and across Europe. As can be seen from tite among employers to pursue partnerships within these discussions, while there is employer demand at the sector in the near-term. Countries should focus all levels of skills, it is most notable in the mid-skill on this sector in the future and seek opportunities to category. These professions often require primary expand skilled migration (particularly for cooks and and secondary education with some additional train- hotel workers) once the effects of the pandemic recede. ing (to diploma or certificate level, but not a uni- versity degree). Demand often falls within six major sector buckets: health care (especially general care Where Is There Employer Demand? nursing and elder-care nursing), construction, engi- neering, mechanics, ICT, and tourism and hospital- By definition, those sectors which are suffering from ity. Crucially, these skills are in demand across several skill shortages will have a large number of employers, sectors; for instance, many otherwise thriving sectors at all sizes, who require additional workers. Yet, it is may face a shortage of ICT professionals. not a given that these employers will look to migration 84.  Kirstie Hewlett, Bobby Duffy, Rebecca Benson, Steve Ballinger, and Sunder Katwala. 2020. “Has COVID-19 reset the immigration debate?” Policy Institute, Kings College London, and British Future. London: Kings College London. https://doi.org/doi:10.18742/pub01-030 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 47 to plug these shortages. It is imperative that countries of origin and destination work with private and public Box 4. COVID-19 has highlighted labor employment agencies to identify employers who shortages in key sectors are willing to engage with the partnership and hire migrant workers, at least in the pilot phase. In many EU destination countries, migrants are key to recovery from the economic fallout Within countries of destination, it is quite often larger of COVID-19. Faced with shrinking popula- companies or multinational corporations that show tions and labor shortages, these high-income the greatest interest in hiring migrants. Most of these countries need migrants to plug labor short- companies have branches abroad and hire migrant ages in essential sectors. In sectors such as staff. They may already have robust cultural awareness hospitality and tourism, demand for migrants training and intra-company integration procedures may be subdued until global travel restrictions in place to support migrant staff. They may be more are fully lifted. likely to understand and trust the education and train- ing and skills that migrant workers bring to company Lessons learned since the onset of the COVID- operations. However, larger companies often find it 19 crisis in many high-income countries show easier to recruit abroad directly rather than through a that migrants already form a large share of partnership. It is small and medium enterprises (SMEs) essential worker categories across the skills in both countries of origin and destination where skill spectrum. For example, in the United States, shortages have the greatest impact on productivity 30 percent of doctors and 27 percent of farm and where the potential benefits from hiring a small workers are foreign-born. In Australia, 53 per- number of migrant workers could be the largest. Yet, cent of doctors and 35 percent of nurses are in countries of destination at least, SMEs rarely hire immigrants. In the EU, more than one in three migrant workers and are more likely to mistrust the domestic workers and one in five workers in skills these workers would bring, or concerned about a the food processing industry are migrants. potential cultural clash within their organizations. To ensure ongoing migrant contributions To inspire trust across the board in these partnerships, during the critical recovery phase, some coun- it would be good to involve one or two larger com- tries have already instituted immigration panies during the pilot phase, prove the effect of the reforms. Portugal has granted all migrants and partnership on productivity and employer growth, asylum-seekers citizenship rights. In the US, and then use these testimonials to expand the partner- foreign-born health care workers have been ship to SMEs, once the partnership enters scale. given temporary work permits and skills rec- ognition. Italy has instituted a process to regu- larize irregular migrants to enable recovery in Where Is There Political Will and Public critical sectors. Interest to Expand Migration? Source: Marta Foresti. 2020. “Less gratitude, please. How COVID- 19 reveals the need for migration reform.” May 22, 2020. https:// www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2020/05/22/less- There is broad public interest in expanding skilled gratitude-please-how-covid-19-reveals-the-need-for-migration- migration opportunities within both countries of reform/; and Overseas Development Institute (ODI). 2020. “Key workers: Migrants’ contribution to the COVID-19 response.” origin and countries of destination. Furthering this https://migrants-keyworkers-covid-19.odi.digital/ interest will require careful communication to the 48 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain public about the structure of the partnership and the the training institution should be able to provide quali- types of migrants being admitted under it. fications which are recognized in both markets. Ascertaining political will is more difficult. Coun- Such an approach requires substantial financial and tries of origin may lack policy coherence on the links technical investment, as well as political desire to between migration and development. For example, support internationally gained qualifications. It is there- ministries of finance may be interested in expand- fore likely that such an approach will only be pursued ing migration opportunities to benefit from remit- within sectors where there is a genuine and widespread tances and skill transfers. Ministries of health, on the shortage, and where existing migration pathways do not other hand, may be concerned about brain drain and exist. Most jobs in certain sectors such as agriculture and therefore unwilling to facilitate skilled migration. horticulture may not require specialized training. In Countries of destination may face the same issues. addition, pathways such as Seasonal Agricultural Worker Ministries of development or foreign affairs may see schemes already exist to support such movement. High- expanding legal migration as a way to enhance inter- skill sectors are also unlikely to require such training national relationships and cultivate economic devel- investment and perhaps are better suited to mecha- opment on both sides. Yet ministries of home affairs nisms such as the proposed EU Talent Pool, whereby may be concerned about the security implications of employers can recruit qualified migrant workers, or new migration movements or be unwilling to extend the EU Blue Card. As a result, mid-skill professions that new pathways to countries with historically high visa require some level of training are likely to be the focus. overstay rates. Finally, it will be imperative for political actors to The key to unlocking debates on both sides is to find consider how quick the “wins” need to be, within the champions within individual ministries who are enthu- context of the project. For example, in the long run, we siastic about or even supportive of the idea. Build a con- could conceive of delivering a full three-year nursing stituency internally, before holding Chatham House qualification in a country of origin with both a “home” rule workshops with a wide variety of stakeholders to and “away” track. Yet this may not be possible within discuss issues and concerns. It is often helpful for coun- the context of a two- or three-year long pilot project, tries to build bridges between partner ministries to and longer projects may not be politically or financially discuss the needs within the sector, the current training feasible. If this is the case, it may be necessary to target and curriculum design, and how it can be adapted. The skills which can be taught in a relatively short period takeaway from such discussions is that there is often of time (6-18 months). For example, the “away” track political will and public interest to be found as long as could target nurses who are already trained and equip the partnership can be designed and communicated in them with country of destination specific skills; this a way that appeals to entrenched interests. would require less time than a full nursing degree. Where Are There Specialized Training Where Is There Potential for Remittances and Requirements? Skill Transfer? Implementing a Global Skill Partnership usually requires The Global Skill Partnership model was designed to conducting some form of training within the country ensure that the migration of skilled professionals has of origin. It adapts the local curriculum for employer the maximum development benefit for their country of needs both domestically and internationally. This way, origin. In the model, this is done through transferring Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 49 training to the country of origin, thereby increasing Remittances are usually defined as transfers of money the number of skilled professionals operating within and goods from diaspora back to their countries of the local labor force and improving the overall train- origin. In 2019, before COVID-19, remittances to low- ing and system architecture. It also is done by facilitat- and middle-income countries set a record $554 billion, ing remittances and skill transfer. overtaking foreign direct investment as the largest financial flow to these countries.85 In some countries, remittances constitute a huge share of the overall GDP Box 5. Female Engagement in Legal Migration Pathways not all positive, with some questioning the impact The last 30 years have seen two interesting trends of female migration on household stability and in female migration. First, globally, the share of family networks. international migrants who are women is decreas- ing (in Nigeria, however, the share of international migrants who are female has increased from 42 Given these findings, it is unsurprising that many percent in 1990 to 48 percent in 2020). Second, the of the legal migration pathways that do exist are skill level of women who do migrate is increasing. highly gendered. For example, the Australian More and more, women are migrating for work, Government’s Pacific Labour Scheme’s aged care rather than for family reasons. Regardless of their trainees were 100 percent women, and its meat skill level, however, women are still more likely to processing trainees were 100 percent men.3 work within gendered professions such as caregiv- ing, health care, teaching, and hospitality. This report analyzes migration in three sectors which traditionally have a range of gendered par- Besides the benefits to the migrants themselves and ticipation: health care (female), construction their countries of destination, this movement also (male), and ICT (mixed). Implementing projects has important impacts for their countries of ori- in all three will allow us to better understand the gin. Women send approximately the same amount gendered impacts of opening new legal migration of remittances home as male migrants, yet women pathways. For example, some legal migration path- generally send a disproportionately higher share of ways have imposed quotas on their trainings (the their income.1 These remittances are often spent PALIM project had a 30 percent quota for women) on education, often for girls, and these flows also to try and incentivize female take-up, especially help balance female bargaining power within the within traditionally male-dominated professions. households.2 The impacts on countries of origin are It is hoped that such an approach will lead to more 1.  Elke Holst, Andrea Schäfer, and Mechthild Schrooten. 2012. “Gender and Remittances: Evidence from Germany.” Feminist Economics 18(2): 201- 229. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13545701.2012.692478 2.  Shelly Lundberg and Robert A. Pollack. 1996. “Bargaining and Distribution in Marriage.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 10(4): 139-158. https:// www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.10.4.139 3.  Stephen Howes and Holly Lawton. 2019. “The Pacific Labour Scheme: is it a flop?” DevPolicy Blog. July 29, 2019. https://devpolicy.org/ the-pacific-labour-scheme-is-it-a-flop-20190729/ 85.  World Bank. 2020. “World Bank Predicts Sharpest Decline of Remittances in Recent History.” World Bank Press Release April 22, 2020. https://www.world- bank.org/en/news/press-release/2020/04/22/world-bank-predicts-sharpest-decline-of-remittances-in-recent-history 50 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain of a country, for example, reaching 37.6 percent of GDP In addition, all three sectors are sufficiently skilled to in Tonga.86 While COVID-19 may cause these flows to need specialized training requirements and to engen- decline in some corridors, they will still remain a sub- der sizeable remittance and skill transfers. All three stantial source of development investment for migrant sectors require training programs that last between origin countries in the years to come. In addition to one and three years, with a combination of class- these financial flows, migrants also transfer human room-based and practical curricula. Promoting migra- capital such as language skills, shifted social and cul- tion within these sectors would enable trainees from tural norms, technical skills, and knowledge. Nigeria to obtain higher incomes in Europe, thereby supporting their communities of origin. As a result, Maximizing the potential of these transfers is key to case studies for these sectors have been developed in combatting brain drain. It is important to pick a sector sections 3-5. which is sufficiently highly skilled to increase the potential of transfer home. It could also be useful to A number of sectors that fit this framework have not focus on increasing the share of women in male-dom- been analyzed as part of this feasibility assessment, inated professions such as construction and engineer- notably tourism and hospitality. Previous skill partner- ing (see Box 5). Encouraging women to acquire these ships have attempted to address the demands within skills, and perhaps to employ them abroad, could lead these sectors. For example, the APTC has a number to increased norm and knowledge transfers (though of modules for these sectors, particularly support- this remains to be proven). ing migration for hotel and resort staff during peak tourist season. Yet COVID-19 has reduced demand for jobs in these sectors. While, undoubtedly, demand Applying the Framework will increase in the future, there is insufficient private sector confidence in the market to predict the skills Based on the five elements described above, health that will be needed (and where they will be needed). care, construction, and ICT emerge as suitable sectors for implementing a Global Skill Partnership between Finally, a word on agriculture. There are at least 15 sea- Nigeria and select European countries. All three pro- sonal agricultural migration programs in operation fessions have large skill shortages, both in Nigeria and throughout the world, primarily to bring workers on Europe, with many employers (particularly SMEs) temporary contracts to high-income countries of des- demanding qualified talent. As a result of this employer tination. These pathways do not, on the whole, require demand, there is widespread political will to expand specialized training requirements or a minimum stan- migration to meet the scale of the issue. For example, dard of skills. Hence, while they definitely match a the current UK government has pledged to expand the number of the elements outlined above—notably skill number of nurses by 2025, a goal that can only be met by shortages, employer demand, political will, and the increasing immigration. COVID-19 has created strong potential for remittances—they fall short on requir- public support for both migrants working within the ing specialized training of candidates. This is not to say sector and expanding migration to meet the needs of that migration partnerships are not needed within this the sector. Both construction and ICT have continued sector, only that agriculture is not a good candidate for to thrive throughout COVID-19, and their demands Global Skill Partnerships. have not been dampened by economic downturns. 86.  Teuila Fuatai. 2020. “Pacific hurt by drop in money being sent home.” April 28, 2020. Newsroom. https://www.newsroom.co.nz/ pacific-hurt-by-drop-in-money-being-sent-home Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 51 Choosing Countries: A Framework It is not essential that the skills developed through the “home” and “away” track be exactly the same, though It is imperative that any new partnership has a strong it would confer economies of scale if they were. For and enduring focus on the labor market and social inte- example, the Enabel-implemented PALIM project (see gration prospects of all participating actors. Part of this Box 21) is training JavaScript developers in both tracks, equation requires carefully selected willing employers, as that skill is in need in both Belgium and Morocco. regions, and countries in the suitable sectors described Those who are on the “away” track, then receive addi- above with whom to collaborate. tional training in language and cultural awareness, but the hard skills training is the same for both tracks. Yet a Implementing a Global Skill Partnership requires partnership can easily be developed with less overlap. strong cooperation from multiple stakeholders in For example, both Nigeria and the UK have short- countries of origin and destination. Figure 15 ranks ages within the health care sector but, while the UK some of the elements that can help countries of origin, requires fully trained primary care nurses, Nigeria is in such as Nigeria, assess the feasibility of partnering with need of nurses in a range of categories. These two pro- different destination countries to implement a Global files require different levels of skills, delivered through Skill Partnership approach. Needless to say, these are different curricula over different periods of time. A not the only elements that should go into the deci- Global Skill Partnership can still facilitate the train- sion-making process. However, prior assessment of ing of both profiles through the dual track approach, some of these elements can help identify any gaps that ideally with some overlap early in the curriculum. need to be addressed through the Global Skill Part- nership before such a model is implemented. The Another important area for consideration is existing following five elements are ranked in order of most linkages between the private sector and training pro- important to least important: similar labor shortages, viders in countries of origin and the private sector in foreign policy ties, strong labor laws, existing migra- countries of destination. For example, the Interna- tory pressure, and existing cultural linkages. tional Vocational, Technical and Entrepreneurship College (IVTEC) in Kwara State in Nigeria is a nongov- ernmental educational institute that has partnership Which Countries Have Similar Labor agreements with universities in Nigeria and abroad Shortages? and can leverage those partnerships to train graduates in areas where similar skills shortages exist in coun- For a Global Skill Partnership to be successful, it must tries of destination and origin. be driven by labor market demand in both countries of origin and destination. An initial labor market assess- ment must be undertaken by both government and Where Are There Existing Foreign Policy Ties? private sector actors in both countries to ascertain where shortages lie. This helps ensure that the trainees Global Skill Partnerships are much easier to design will emerge from the program with market-relevant and implement with countries that have good foreign skills and will be able to obtain positions within the policy ties. In the example of Nigeria, markers for good domestic or international labor market. Ideally, within foreign policy ties include existing employment-based a Global Skill Partnership, countries would partner visa schemes that allow flow of workers from Nigeria to with other countries who have similar labor shortages countries of destination, presence of bilateral embas- within similar sectors. sies in countries of origin and destination, and volume of trade that the country of destination has with 52 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain Figure 15. A Framework for Choosing Countries for a Global Skill Partnership 1 Which countries have similar labor shortages? • Matching labor shortages • Partnership between training providers and employers • Employer Demand 2 Where are there existing foreign policy ties? • Existing visa schemes • Strong inter-ministerial cooperation • Links with worker unions 3 Which countries have strong labor laws? • Legal protection of migrants • Strong grievance redress mechanisms 4 Where is there existing migration pressures? • Changing demographics • Irregular migration 5 Where are there existing cultural linkages? • Easy language adaptation • Similar social norms Nigeria on a bilateral basis. For example, the recently Which Countries Have Strong Labor Laws? formulated Joint Africa-EU Strategy has specific objec- tives to develop pathways for regular migration oppor- The SDGs recognize the important role that migrants tunities including for labor, entrepreneurs, students, can play in the development process of both coun- and researchers.87 tries of origin and destination. SDG target 10.7 calls for States to “facilitate orderly, safe, and responsible Apart from foreign policy ties, countries of destination migration and mobility of people, including through that are strong candidates for Global Skill Partnerships implementation of planned and well-managed migra- are those that have strong inter-ministerial coopera- tion policies” within Goal 10 on reducing inequalities. tion and ties with Nigeria, existing relationships with Migrant rights is therefore the cornerstone for any Nigerian worker associations and trade unions, and labor mobility scheme, and a central issue to consider those that are actively supporting Nigeria through bilat- when selecting a suitable country of destination. Labor eral and multilateral agencies in the area of managing mobility schemes that do not protect migrant rights migration. For example, the German Federal Minis- in countries of destination can lead to disastrous out- try of Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) comes. This is evident in the abuse and exploitation supports the “Migration for Development” program in that migrants have suffered in the oil-rich economies several countries of origin including Nigeria.88 in the Persian Gulf.89 87.  African Union. “The Africa-EU Partnership.” https://africa-eu-partnership.org/en/strategic-priority-areas/migration-and-mobility 88.  Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH. 2021. “Programme “Migration for Development”.” Last updated January 2021. https://www.giz.de/en/worldwide/62318.html 89.  Pete Pattisson, Niamh McIntyre, Imran Mukhtar, Nikhil Eapen, Md Owasim Uddin Bhuyan, Udwab Bhattarai, and Aanya Piyari. 2021. “Revealed: 6,500 migrant workers have died in Qatar since World Cup Awarded.” The Guardian. February 23, 2021. https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2021/ feb/23/revealed-migrant-worker-deaths-qatar-fifa-world-cup-2022 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 53 This issue is already recognized in the migration man- and readmission rates. Whether or not to include such agement process in Nigeria. For example, the Federal legal pathways within broader migration management Ministry of Labor and Employment in Nigeria sus- agreements remains to be seen. On the one hand, it pended government facilitated international recruit- provides a meaningful benefit to countries of origin ment of Nigerian workers in early 2018 because of like Nigeria to agree to receive their own irregular the maltreatment being meted out to Nigerian labor migrants. On the other hand, it could put pressure on migrants in destination countries, particularly in the the existence of the legal pathway to fully reduce irreg- Gulf. Any BLAs/MoUs should carefully review labor ular migration, an outcome that should never be put laws in destination countries to see whether they apply before other the notable successes outlined above. to foreign nationals, and ensure that protection mech- anisms exist for migrants to voice their grievances, both in destination countries as well as in countries of Where Are There Existing Cultural Linkages? origin through respective embassies or labor attaches. Similarities in languages spoken and presence of dias- pora networks from Nigeria in countries of destina- Where Is There Existing Migratory Pressure? tion could be important markers for selecting potential destinations as these factors could make the pathways More than 40,000 Nigerians reached Italian shores cheaper and easier to implement. However, compared in 2016 after crossing the Mediterranean Sea. Data on to the first four factors, cultural similarities are not the stock of Nigerian migrants in countries of destina- necessarily a “must-have” in assessing partnerships. tion show that there is clear migratory pressure from One area where cultural similarities can facilitate part- Nigerians willing to employ their skills in Europe and nership is in providing language training to aspiring North America. Global Skill Partnerships are one of migrants, as the length of the training is determined by several tools that policy makers have to regularize the the time required for aspiring migrants to become pro- irregular flow of migrants from Nigeria to countries of ficient in languages spoken in countries of destination. destination. It is therefore important to understand For example, since the most widely spoken interna- intended countries of destination for current irregular tional language in Nigeria is English, potential destina- and aspiring migrants. tion countries with English as the main language spoken in the workplace or where languages spoken are closely In 2017, EU countries carried out 189,545 returns of related to English (such as German or Dutch) could be irregular migrants to third countries, of which 9,235 more suitable for Global Skill Partnerships. were to Sub-Saharan Africa.90 About one-third of all the returnees to Sub-Saharan Africa came from Another factor for consideration is whether potential Nigeria. Since 2000, Nigeria has signed several bilat- employers in countries of destination already operate in eral repatriation agreements with European coun- countries of origin and are familiar with the sociocul- tries such as the UK, Spain, and Ireland to facilitate the tural landscape of potential migrants. Diaspora groups return and readmission of irregular migrants. Negoti- from countries of origin can support the cultural aware- ating new legal migration pathways such as Global Skill ness training of those on the “away” track, support them Partnerships could help displace some of the current once they arrive within the country of destination, and forms of irregular mobility, therefore reducing returns help facilitate increased remittances and skill transfer to 90.  Jonathan Slagter. 2019. “An “Informal” Turn in the European Union’s Migrant Returns Policy towards Sub-Saharan Africa.” January 10, 2019. Washington, DC: Migration Policy Institute (MPI). https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/eu-migrant-returns-policy-towards-Sub-Saharan-africa 54 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain magnify the development impact. If the pathway is tem- linkages and less political imperative in these countries porary, they could also help facilitate sustainable and at present to create visa structures to facilitate large- meaningful returns and reintegration. scale African migration. Applying the Framework Implementation of a Global Skill Partnership Based on the elements described above, the UK and Germany emerge as suitable countries of destina- By following the frameworks for choosing sectors and tion for implementing Global Skill Partnerships pilots countries, it is hoped that both countries of origin and with Nigeria. Both countries have strong foreign destination can get a good sense of the types of sectors policy ties with Nigeria and existing employment-re- and countries that will lend themselves well to Global lated visa schemes for movement of both skilled and Skill Partnerships. This section aims to provide lessons unskilled visa categories. They have a strong presence learned from similar projects on how to move from a of Nigerian diaspora networks; the number of Nige- scoping exercise to implementation, evaluation, and rians in the UK increased by four times between 1990 scale. Given the pilot nature of many of the inter- and 2019 and doubled in Germany within the same ventions in this space, there are relatively few pieces time-period. These destination countries also fulfill of guidance which new countries can follow. It is rec- the language criteria with English being spoken in ommended that countries interested in such partner- the UK and used widely in professional settings in ships consult with those countries that have attempted Germany. Two other destination markets are also something similar and also get in touch with institu- considered for an ICT partnership—Belgium and tions such as MPF, IOM, and ILO for guidance. Lithuania—given the presence of existing ICT migra- tion pathways with Africa. Risks and Mitigation Measures Besides these, there are several other countries of des- tination that satisfy some but not all of the five criteria. Global Skill Partnerships are inherently complex. They For example, while the number of Nigerians in Italy require precise tailoring to specific contexts, and the has increased substantially over the last two decades, involvement of a wide variety of stakeholders. It is most Nigerians in Italy work in low-paying farm jobs important to identify all potential risks with such an and Italy does not have existing visa schemes for Nige- approach, and implement concrete mitigation mea- rians employed in the agricultural sector. English is sures. Table 4 outlines a list of risks and mitigation also far less prevalent in workplace settings in Italy. measures that have been identified in previous pilot The Netherlands, the United States, and Canada all projects. This list is by no means exhaustive and future see large Nigerian migration flows, predominantly pilots will undoubtedly uncover other risks and miti- those that are high-skilled. Yet there are fewer cultural gation measures. Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 55 Table 4. Common risks and potential mitigation measures in implementing Global Skill Partnerships Risk Mitigation Measure Unions/internal Many sectors experiencing significant skill shortages are in this position due to their wages and work- lobbying threaten ing conditions being insufficient to attract local workers. Unions for these sectors are therefore, rightly, the establishment of pushing for improvements in these areas to make the sectors more attractive. They may see expanded the project migration within the sector as a way for employers to avoid responsibility for improving wages and work- ing conditions and may see migrants as a threat to job opportunities for local workers. These concerns are valid and resonate with a number of migrant-dominated sectors, especially agricul- ture and horticulture. Unions should be involved from the very start of the project for two reasons: first, they can ensure that migration is not being used to substitute for sector improvements and can ensure that both interventions are being conducted in tandem; and second, they can advocate for migrant rights throughout the process, ensuring that migrants are able to uphold the terms and conditions of their con- tracts and that they are integrating well into local economies. The nature of work In both countries of origin and destination, professions that require TVET training can have a low repu- within mid-skill tation.* This can make it difficult to ensure that governments put resources toward improving access to sectors makes them TVET training and the training itself. It can also make it difficult to attract trainees— why would parents unattractive encourage their children to undertake TVET training when they could pursue a more “professional” path. Here, the opportunity to access a mobility pathway could help. Evidence from the Philippines shows that making migration a possibility can induce more people to invest in that skill, even if they aren’t able to access the migration pathway. In addition, ensuring that employers in both countries are committed to employing trainees from the start of the program can enhance the attractiveness of roles. People are likely to be more interested in investing in a skill if there is a promise of a job offer at the other end, whether in their country of origin or destination. The language skills The easiest way to approach this issue is to partner with a country which conducts their education and of the trainees will training in the same language. If this is not possible, some level of language training will be required. The be insufficient private sector must instruct the government partners as to what level of language is required to ensure the worker is able to contribute fully and integrate within the work and home environment. The project should then engage language trainers (either in person or remotely) to design a concurrent language curriculum for those entering the “away” track. There is a skill The Global Skill Partnership model is inherently flexible. While it can encourage economies of scale and mismatch between train for exactly the same skills in both countries, this is not a requirement. It is important to ensure supply and demand that the training is serving the needs of the labor markets on both sides, a feat which requires the close involvement of the private sector. In addition, the training will need to adapt over time. For sectors such as ICT, where skill requirements change frequently, the curriculum may need to shift even mid-training. For other sectors such as health care, where skill requirements are relatively constant, the curriculum will still need to be adapted fre- quently to keep pace with shifting requirements within the profession. It also needs to respond to the changing nature of demand overall and have an exit strategy in place if the profession is no longer in demand (say, for example, shifting to purely training for local country of origin markets). As a result, any implementation must inherently be long-term, and plan for a multiyear commitment. Trainees in the A lack of trainee integration threatens not only the future success of the project (a negative feedback loop “away” track do not could occur if trainees tell future participants of their experiences, while employers would be unlikely fully integrate to participate again) but also undermines faith in managed migration policy overall. The project should engage cultural awareness trainers, who could also be the same organizations that deliver integration training to newly arrived refugees and asylum seekers. This training should be delivered to those on the “away” track towards the end of their formal training. In addition, as described above, it is recommended that the project operate with employers in areas with sizable diaspora and that local diaspora organizations are engaged to help facilitate integration. Finally, the project must include a robust period of check-ins with both trainees and employers to identify issues as they arise. Such feedback must be baked into the evaluation of the project as a success criteria. 56 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain Table 4. Common risks and potential mitigation measures in implementing Global Skill Partnerships cont. Risk Mitigation Measure Stakeholders are The Global Skill Partnership model needs to involve the following actors in both countries of origin and not adequately destination: public and private employment agencies, employers, government ministries (foreign affairs, identified/consulted, interior, development, labor, and sector-specific), state-level authorities, diaspora organizations, integra- leading to friction tion agencies, migration agencies and authorities, trade unions, migrant rights associations, and research- ers and academics. A detailed stakeholder map should be created at the start of the partnership and all parties brought together singularly and together to discuss the project in depth. The private sector, ideally specific companies, should be brought in from day one. Such consultations are time-consuming but are required to build trust and investment in the project. Insufficient funds to Today, there are numerous funding instruments that are able to support the piloting of such projects, pilot and/or scale including ICMPD’s EU-funded Mobility Partnerships Facility (MPF), as well as Official Development Assistance (ODA) budgets and multilaterals like the World Bank and IOM. Yet, for the time being, many of these funding sources are unsustainable and essentially mean the private sector is receiving qualified workers for free. The project should develop a financing analysis to explore the best options for both the pilot and scale phases and explore how to move to a more sustainable financing model. A lack of political Lack of political will can be the biggest reason why a project does not get off the ground in the first will place, but changing political demands can also threaten the establishment and scalability of projects in the long-term. All government stakeholders need to be regularly consulted and engaged in the design and implementation of the project, so that any issues are identified early. It can also be helpful to prepare a communications plan including ways in which to describe and “sell” the project to internal government stakeholders who may be less familiar with the project. Security concerns Some government ministries, particularly home or internal affairs departments in countries of destination, threaten the estab- are understandably concerned about the security implications of opening new legal labor immigration lishment and scal- pathways. This may be a particular concern when partnering with countries which already have high visa ability of projects overstay rates and rates of return (whether voluntary or forced). A further complicating factor is COVID-19, and concerns about health security. It will be necessary to build in screening protocols, ensuring coun- tries of destination have access to the backgrounds of those seeking visas so that they can be aware of any security threats. In addition, health screening protocols may be required, including vaccinations and health passports. Ultimately, though, this is a communications challenge as much a practical one. Global Skill Partnerships are a way to manage migration, ensuring countries of destination are bringing in pre- cise workers with precise skills. This narrative can help allay security concerns. The program does Evidence shows us that better connecting training to local and international labor markets will increase not lead to the the earning potential of trainees, thereby improving remittances and livelihoods at home and abroad. expected economic In addition, the presence of significant skill shortages has been reported as one of the major impedi- benefits ments to employer productivity and growth. As such, one would expect that a project like the Global Skill Partnership would help employers meet these shortages and therefore expand. That being said, neither of these impacts are a given. Even if these benefits do arise, they also may not be enough to offset the significant cost that accompanies these partnerships (at least in the pilot phase). Therefore the model should be equipped with an in-depth evaluation to ascertain the precise impact of the intervention and shift the implementation as necessary. The program has no Given increasing irregular migration between countries of origin and destination (especially Sub- impact on irregular Saharan Africa to Europe) it is reasonable that countries on both sides would expect to see a Global Skill migration flows Partnership reduce irregular migration along the corridor. There is very little evidence about the displace- ment effect of new labor pathways, but the research we do have indicates that extended legal migration pathways are necessary but not sufficient to curb irregular migration flows.** New pathways, especially in pilot phase, can provided opportunities to people who may otherwise seek to move irregularly. But they are unlikely to be able to absorb all emigration pressure, and as such should not be expected to make a meaningful impact on irregular migration, at least in the short term. Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 57 Table 4. Common risks and potential mitigation measures in implementing Global Skill Partnerships cont. Risk Mitigation Measure Parties suffer from Implementing a Global Skill Partnership requires a certain level of institutional capacity. Government a lack of capacity departments must have the ability to be able to conduct skills assessments and develop govern- to implement the ment-to-government agreements, while coordinating among themselves on the best way to use migra- project tion to promote economic development. Public and private employment agencies must exist, and must have strong links with and an understanding of the needs of the private sector. Training and education institutions (as well as the trainers themselves) need to be equipped to deliver an increase in training. And a number of other civil society organizations need to be able to monitor and evaluate the project to ensure safeguards are in place. These requirements are vast, especially for some countries of origin. It is therefore crucial to partner with countries that have some of this capacity available and can build such capacity over time. No employers are Given the significant skill shortages inherent within the sectors where Global Skill Partnerships are being interested in the encouraged, it is unlikely that there will be little take-up of the project. Yet, as described above, it may be project difficult for SMEs to trust the quality and integration potential of foreign workers, especially if they are not used to hiring internationally. Therefore it may be useful to ensure the project has one or two larger employers signed on from day one, and have them advertise the potential benefits from the project to other smaller employers. As the project enlarges, those smaller firms may be more interested in coming on board. As ever, it is useful to evaluate the impact on firms and use this data to persuade others to join. * Paolo Abarcar and Caroline Theoharides. 2020. “Medical Worker Migration and Origin-Country Human Capital: Evidence from U.S. Visa Policy.” Amherst College Draft Working Paper July 2020. https://www.amherst.edu/system/files/Abarcar_Theoharides_2020_July_FINAL.pdf ** Michael Clemens and Kate Gough. 2018. “Can Regular Migration Channels Reduce Irregular Migration? Lessons for Europe from the United States.“ Center for Global Development (CGD) Brief. February 14, 2018. Washington, DC: Center for Global Development (CGD). https://www.cgdev.org/ publication/can-regular-migration-channels-reduce-irregular-migration-lessons-europe-united-states Funding support). The extent of this cost will of course depend on the nature of the training (e.g. health care requires Implementing a Global Skill Partnership requires much more equipment than ICT), the length of the understanding the different categories of costs that training (e.g. a two-year diploma versus a six-month are required and an exploration of the different ways certificate), and the structure of the training (e.g. to cover these costs. Since the extent of these costs will classroom, online, or on-the-job based). depend on the countries and sectors in which the Part- 2. Staffing costs. Global Skill Partnerships require nership is being implemented, it is difficult to provide a large amount of set-up investment. It is likely average figures. However, these five groups of costs that specific staff members will need to be hired need to be factored into project proposals. to manage the project, in both countries of origin and destination, and existing staff members will 1. Training costs. Once a new curriculum has been need to be compensated for their time. These staff designed, it needs to be delivered. This may require members will need to be on-boarded, trained, and building new training facilities or adding on to provided with requisite wages and benefits. existing training facilities. Trainers will need to be 3. Migration costs. For those trainees who have com- procured and supported in delivering the new cur- pleted the “away” track, there will need to be a riculum. Equipment will need to be purchased at budget to support the costs of migration including sufficient levels to support all trainees. The running certificate recognition fees, visa fees, and airfares. costs of any training facilities will need to be factored Some projects include these costs within the broader in and scaled as the project shifts. Crucially this cost budget, while others (for example, APTC) require needs to include the delivery of both hard and soft migrants to cover these costs themselves through skills (including language and cultural awareness loans provided by their eventual employers. 58 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 4. Living costs. Once workers have completed their One way to do this is to employ a different funding training and are offered opportunities within com- structure at pilot phase and at scale. For example, at panies in countries of origin and destination they scale, it may be preferable for the public or private will need to be provided with requisite wages and sector employers in countries of destination who will benefits. These wages should be borne by the com- benefit from new skilled labor to finance the cost of panies in question. Some projects include some the training of workers on the “away” track and their initial costs to support integration such as housing, migration expenses. Some of these costs, for example, food, and living expenses (at least until wages come accommodation and subsistence, could be covered through). through a loan scheme which is recouped through a 5. Returns and reintegration costs. If the pathway is migrant’s eventual earnings, or a scholarship/sponsor- temporary (even if this means the trainees are pro- ship scheme. Overseas development assistance or other vided with one- or even three-year visas) there will forms of international financing could then be used to need to be a budget to support the return and rein- support the training of workers on the “home” track. tegration of these people. This could cover the same This could overlap with or supplement the already costs as outlined above: certification recognition, substantial investments that countries of destination airfare, and initial housing or set-up costs, while put into both education and TVET programs in many also including institutional fees to support those partner countries of origin. “Such a financing scheme workers in finding employment in their countries requires contracts spelling out the obligations of each of origin. party, reliable payment systems, secure records, and a mutually-agreed division of the financial burden of training subsidies, among other elements.”92 There are many different ways in which such costs could be covered. CGD recently conducted a review Developing such a complex funding model at the pilot of all legal labor immigration pathways in the world stage could be difficult given the incentives involved. and found over 60 current and completed partner- Public or private sector employers may not trust the ships.91 These partnerships employed a range of dif- quality of the training and the skills of the trainees. ferent funding mechanisms. Some were solely covered They may not be used to hiring internationally or may through ODA, normally executed by country of desti- not have developed the systems to adequately inte- nation development departments. Others were funded grate culturally diverse employees. As a result, it could or supported by international organizations such as be difficult to get the financial buy-in of employers the World Bank or IOM; multilateral institutions such from day one. Hence, many of the existing Global Skill as the EU; and the private sector, impact investors, or Partnership pilots have relied solely on development even the migrants themselves. All of these approaches assistance or international organization financing have positive and negative impacts, and there is no during these initial stages. They hope to build a proof one “right way” to fund a Global Skill Partnership. It of concept and slowly transition some of the financial is crucial to understand the incentives of potential responsibility to the private sector. For example, as funders, and to ensure that either the funding is sus- can be seen in Box 6, now that a partnership between tainable and scalable, or that the project has a plan for Germany and Morocco has been proven of value to how to achieve this type of funding for a scaled pilot in participating employers, the German Development the future. Agency and the World Bank are looking to transition 91. See https://www.cgdev.org/gsp 92.  Michael A. Clemens. 2015. “Global Skill Partnerships: a proposal for technical training in a mobile world.” IZA Journal of Labor Policy 4(2). https://link. springer.com/article/10.1186/s40173-014-0028-z Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 59 some financial responsibility for the second phase of their experience with the selection process, training the project. (in both hard and soft skills), recruitment, employ- ment situation, and economic situation. Those in the “away” track should be surveyed on their expe- Evaluation rience with pre-departure training, migration, and initial integration. The results from these surveys Finally, it is imperative that the project is accompanied should be benchmarked against the economic situ- by a robust evaluation to test the assumptions inherent ation of those in the control group. Were those who within the project and provide evidence as to why the applied for the training able to find roles (either at design should or should not shift as the project moves home or abroad) regardless? And were those com- to scale. This evaluation could be undertaken in-house panies who requested workers able to find workers (e.g. by the country of destination development min- regardless? How did they meet their labor demand? istry) or externally (e.g. by contracting a consultant or • At the end of the project. Again, all participants evaluation agency in the country of origin or destina- should be surveyed on their employment and eco- tion). Crucially, data collection should occur in four nomic outlook, as well as their satisfaction with the distinct phases: program. The trainees in the “away” track should be surveyed on their experience with return and rein- • Before the training starts. To be able to quantify the tegration (if applicable), especially their ability to be impact of the project to trainees and employers, it is plugged back into the local labor market. useful to gather some form of benchmark from which • Sometime after the end of the project. This is the to start. A questionnaire should be developed which element of evaluation that is often missed yet is gathers basic information from both participants crucial to understanding the success of the project. and employers. For the former, this questionnaire For trainees in the “away” track it is necessary to should detail their demographic and socio-economic understand how well they are integrating into profile, their professional experience (at home and their workplaces and societies. This may showcase abroad), their language proficiency, and their expec- the need to invest more heavily in post-departure tations for the program. For the latter, this question- support or language training. For trainees in the naire should detail the impact of skill shortages on “home” track, the evaluation may show that these their business, their experience in recruiting abroad trainees were unable to source meaningful employ- or with foreign workers, and their expectations ment opportunities so were seeking to move abroad for the program. Crucially, the results of these two regardless, which may signify that more institutional questionnaires should be benchmarked against two support is needed. And finally, most important, a fol- control groups. The trainee control group could be low-up evaluation will show the long-term impacts made up of people who applied for the training but of the program on employers. The New Zealand Rec- were not selected, and the employer control group ognised Seasonal Employer (RSE) scheme conducts could be made up of companies who were interested employer evaluations every year and is able to show in the program but did not elect to receive a trainee what percentage of employers expanded due to the in the plot phase. scheme and/or were able to hire more New Zealand- • At the end of the training/before migration. The ers.93 Such evidence is crucial to getting new employ- same trainees and employers should be surveyed on ers on board and expanding the project. 93.  New Zealand Immigration. “Recognised Seasonal Employer (RSE) scheme research.” https://www.immigration.govt.nz/about-us/research-and-statistics/ research-reports/recognised-seasonal-employer-rse-scheme 60 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain the future investment decisions of parents when facilitating girls’ access to education and training. The precise impacts of a Global Skill Partnership are • Increased TVET participation. Many TVET pro- potentially wide reaching. The evaluation should seek grams struggle to see high levels of enrolment. to gather data on as many of the following potential Offering migration opportunities to some trainees impacts as possible: should increase the number of people undertaking these programs. • Increased earnings. Evidence suggests that by • Improved systems. Global Skill Partnerships are better aligning skills training with employer not just about increasing the supply of workers demand, trainees in both tracks should be able available within a given sector. They are also about to access higher earning potential and therefore channeling development investment to areas where better socio-economic livelihoods. it is most needed. Creating benchmarks to assess • Expanded businesses. If skills shortages are a systems strengthening is imperative. barrier to productivity and expansion, plugging • Increased focus on migration innovation. There these gaps should allow employers to invest in new is often an assumption that progress within migra- technologies and products, expand into new busi- tion policy is too difficult, and that problems such ness lines, and hire more local workers in middle as attracting skilled third country workers in a management positions. managed way are intractable. Any evaluation should • Increased remittances. Those in the “away” track attempt to qualitatively show that the pilot enabled should have access to a higher level of earnings, and stakeholders both in the partnership countries and evidence suggests they are likely to remit a large beyond to think more innovatively about linking share of that money back to their origin commu- migration, education, and development. nities. Such transfers can be substantial and have a huge impact on economic development.94 Role of the World Bank • Increased skill transfers. While remittances capture the financial flows that often occur within As highlighted earlier, the World Bank aims to support migration pathways, it is also useful to look more the Government of Nigeria and other governments broadly at skill, information, and norm transfers, around the world in their objectives to equip youth especially from those in the “away” track to their with market-relevant skills at all levels and to create home communities. Measuring these transfers is pathways to employment, both domestically as well as inherently difficult but is an essential element of in international labor markets. In doing so, the World the project that must be captured. Bank can bring in three distinct advantages it possesses • Shifted gender norms. Projects should include to help expand legal pathways between countries or a quota for women, a policy even more import- origin and destination that promote mutual develop- ant in traditionally male-dominated professions ment interest for all parties involved. like construction and engineering. The impact of such quotas should be studied, especially regarding The first advantage is leveraging the immense knowl- norm transfers from those on the “away” track and edge generation potential that the World Bank pos- sesses. As Global Skill Partnerships and other labor 94.  John Gibson and David McKenzie. 2010. “The development impact of a best practice seasonal worker policy: New Zealand’s Recognised Seasonal Employer (RSE) Scheme.” University of Waikato Department of Economics Working Paper Series number 10/08. Hamilton: University of Waikato. https://researchcom- mons.waikato.ac.nz/handle/10289/4944 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 61 migration partnerships are best implemented within from the World Bank to the Government of Tonga that specific sectors and context suitable to the parties aims to ensure TVET courses are improved to help involved, the World Bank can carry out foundational students build skills to make them more employable, analysis to understand the full range of possibilities. not only in Tonga, but also through the Australian or For example, in Afghanistan, the World Bank carried New Zealand employment programs.97 In Bangladesh, out analytical work in 2018 to highlight that Afghani the World Bank worked together with the NGO BRAC migration is essentially informal, mostly unskilled to design the Safe Migration for Bangladeshi Workers and often illiterate, and absorbed by neighbor- (SMBW) project that provided aspiring migrant ing countries Iran and Pakistan. As a result Afghan workers and their families pre-departure and safe labor migrants typically hold precarious jobs, earn migration information through awareness workshops low wages that limit remittances back home, and in courtyards and schools, infotainment, and com- have limited possibilities to develop new skills when munity radios. Implemented between 2013 and 2017, abroad.95 Similarly, in 2017, the World Bank carried the project reached more than 1 million migrant fam- out analytical work, including through substantial ilies and supported pre-decision and pre-departure stakeholder consultations, to highlight that ASEAN orientation and training for more than 30,000 aspir- countries would improve workers’ welfare (by 14 ing migrants.98 percent if only targeting high-skilled workers, and by 29 percent if including all workers) by reducing barri- The third distinct advantage that the World Bank pos- ers to labor mobility within the region, and provided sesses is its convening power and ability to play the role country-specific policy recommendations for each of an interlocutor, especially where coordination fail- of the countries in the region to implement reforms ures, similar to the ones described in earlier sections, that would support prospective, current, and return- arise. While countries of destination and origin may be ing migrants.96 Within the scope of the Global Skill interested in developing mutually beneficial partner- Partnerships, the World Bank can play a leading role ships on labor migration, they might want to see “proof in collecting, analyzing, and forecasting data on skills of concept” or some amount of groundwork already shortages faced by countries of destination and origin laid for such partnerships to foster and mitigating in an effort to highlight where targeted training of mechanisms clearly developed for some of the risks workers can help close the skills gap through interna- inherent in the process. The World Bank is uniquely tional labor intermediation and partnerships. positioned to work on financing and evaluating pilots on migration partnerships because of multi-country, The second distinct advantage that the World Bank multi-sector engagements as well as its global expe- brings to the table is the ability to support capaci- riences conducting policy dialog around several rele- ty-building activities to improve migration systems in vant issues such as transnational recruitment systems, countries of origin. For example, the Skills and Employ- public and private intermediation services, safe ment for Tongans (SET) project is a $18.5 million grant migration and workers’ rights, and skills training and 95.  Robert Holzmann.2018. “Managed labor migration in Afghanistan: exploring employment and growth opportunities for Afghanistan (English).” Washington, DC: World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/746891516915310370/ Managed-labor-migration-in-Afghanistan-exploring-employment-and-growth-opportunities-for-Afghanistan 96.  Mauro Testaverde, Harry Moroz, Claire H Hollweg and Achim Schmillen. 2017. “Migrating to Opportunity: Overcoming Barriers to Labor Mobility in Southeast Asia.” Washington, DC: World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/28342 97.  World Bank. 2018. “New pathways, new opportunities: skills and employment project kicks off in Tonga.” https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/ press-release/2018/11/21/skills-and-employment-project-kicks-off-in-tonga 98.  World Bank. 2017. “In Bangladesh, Migrant Workers Can Dream of a Better Life with Access to Better Resources.” https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/ feature/2017/07/30/in-bangladesh-migrant-workers-can-dream-of-a-better-life-with-access-to-better-resources 62 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain recognition. For example, Box 6 highlights one such public employment agency to enable better prepara- specific example where the World Bank, in coordina- tion and placement of Moroccan youth for overseas tion with participating stakeholders from countries of jobs placement in Germany that also meets the desti- origin and destination, is funding a pilot in Morocco nation labor market needs through the Access to Over- that aims to strengthen the institutional capacity of its seas Employment project. Box 6. World Bank: Accessing Overseas Employment Opportunities for Moroccan Youth In 2015, the governments of Germany and Morocco News of the program spread to other German along with the World Bank designed a bilateral employers who then sought to engage with the agreement to facilitate the migration of Moroc- program, thereby also growing the potential can youth to Germany. The project was specifically scope. The next phase of the project aims to move designed to fill labor shortages in Germany’s tour- six months of the three-year apprenticeship train- ism industry, a sector which was picked following ing to Morocco, thereby creating a Global Skill extensive consultations with the German Federal Partnership. Eventually, the aim is to shift financial Employment Agency and the German Develop- responsibility to the German employers. ment Agency (GIZ). The primary goal was to build the capacity of Morocco’s public employment This project neatly demonstrates the value of the agency, ANAPEC, to help facilitate migration and World Bank, or even other international organiza- match trainees with employers. The World Bank tions, to the design and implementation of Global took on the responsibility of funding ANAPEC to Skill Partnerships. By providing initial seed fund- shortlist candidates, bringing German employers ing, the World Bank was able to provide extensive to Morocco for interviews, and funding a part of language and soft skills training, and some inte- the trainees’ stipend once in Germany. gration support upon arrival for trainees, as well as within the participating Member States and the Initially, a pool of 100 young Moroccans looking to EU itself. It has delivered a proof of concept, which work in the tourism sector were identified. They has paved the way for other EU labor mobility proj- were provided with six months of basic pre-de- ects. Since the project focused on building both parture training including language classes, before capacity within the Moroccan public employment being placed with 48 German employers for a agency and jobs and skills for Moroccans, it helped three-year apprenticeship. One year later, all train- ANAPEC develop skills and experience the agency ees were still with their employers and had become has used to successfully develop new pathways. valued employees. The visa they were holding This catalyst role, even beyond the direct bene- allowed them to eventually access permanent res- fits to the trainees and employers, should not be idency and citizenship, thereby aiding integration. underestimated. Source: World Bank, “Accessing Overseas Employment Opportunities for Moroccan Youth Project”. Documentation available at: https://projects. worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/document-detail/P150064?type=projects Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 63 Section 3: Case Study. A Global Skill Partnership in nursing between Nigeria and the United Kingdom (UK) 64 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain By 2030, the world will require an additional 15 million produce 65 million health workers, leaving a shortage nurses if it is to reach universal health coverage (UHC). of 15 million.101 These shortages are likely to be highest These shortages are felt globally, with both Nigeria and among upper middle-income countries, driven by the UK suffering from a shortage of skilled personnel. economic and population growth, as well as aging Neither produce nor employ the number of nurses demographics. Despite the need for increased health required within their public and private institutions, coverage in low-income countries, both the demand and both have specific needs. The following section for and supply of health workers is projected to remain outlines a Global Skill Partnership between Nigeria and low. This could lead to a paradoxical situation whereby the UK within nursing, including an overview of the health workers are trained but unable to be employed training and migration landscape in both countries, within the current labor market. the specific design of such a partnership, and risks and mitigation measures. The WHO defines “health workers” as all people who are engaged in actions whose primary intent is to enhance health. Therefore, it includes doctors, nurses, Developing a Health Care and midwives, along with hospital administrative and Migration Partnership support staff. These professions all require different levels of qualifications and skills, and therefore dif- Globally, the world needs more health workers. A ferent training architectures. In this report, we will Global Burden of Disease Study in 2017 found that primarily focus on nurses. Nursing is the largest occu- “only half of all countries had the health care workers pational group in the health sector (59 percent); in required to deliver quality health care”, critical to 2018, there was a shortage of 5.9 million nurses world- achieving universal health coverage (UHC).99 These wide, with 89 percent of the shortage in low- and mid- shortages are universal, but not universally distrib- dle-income countries (Figure 16).102 uted. For example, the World Health Organization (WHO) has shown that the African region experi- ences 24 percent of the disease burden but has only 3 Health Worker Migration percent of the world’s health workforce. Within coun- tries, shortages are most acute within rural areas due The international migration of health workers is to issues with worker recruitment and retention, as increasing, with a 60 percent rise in the number of well as infrastructure deficits.100 migrant doctors and nurses working in OECD coun- tries over the last decade.103 Today, for example, one in Achieving UHC by 2030 will require 80 million health every eight nurses practice outside the country where workers globally, double the number of health workers they were born or trained, which translates into 3.7 that existed in 2013. Currently, we are on track to million people.104 While most migration takes place 99.  The Lancet. 2018. “GBD 2017: a fragile world.” The Lancet 392(10159): 1683. November 10, 2018. https://www.thelancet.com/action/ showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2818%2932858-7 100.  Onyema Ajuebor, Mathieu Boniol, Michelle McIsaac, Chukwuemeka Onyedike, and Elie A. Akl. 2020. “Increasing access to health workers in rural and remote areas: what do stakeholders’ value and find feasible and acceptable?” Human Resources for Health 18(77). https://human-resources-health.biomedcen- tral.com/articles/10.1186/s12960-020-00519-2 101.  Jenny X. Liu, Yevgeniy Goryakin, Akiko Maeda, Tim Bruckner, and Richard Scheffler. 2017. “Global Health Workforce Labor Market Projections for 2030.” Human Resources for Health 15(11). https://human-resources-health.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12960-017-0187-2 102.  World Health Organization (WHO) 2020. “State of the World’s Nursing Report -2020.” Geneva: World Health Organization (WHO). https://www.who.int/ publications-detail-redirect/9789240003279 103.  World Health Organization (WHO) “Health workforce – Migration.” https://www.who.int/hrh/migration/en/ 104.  World Health Organization (WHO). 2020. “State of the World’s Nursing Report -2020.” Geneva: World Health Organization (WHO). https://www.who.int/ publications-detail-redirect/9789240003279 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 65 Figure 16. The density of nursing personnel in the world is highly uneven < 10 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 74 75 to 99 100 + Not applicable Not reported Source: World Health Organization (WHO) 2020. “State of the World’s Nursing Report -2020.” Geneva: World Health Organization (WHO). https://www.who.int/ publications-detail-redirect/9789240003279 from low- to high-income countries, there are emerg- Awases et al (2004) find that many African health pro- ing patterns of South-South migration as well. Such fessionals are dissatisfied, suffering from delayed sal- trends deplete low- and middle-income countries of aries and promotions, a lack of recognition, and an their already meagre health workforces and contrib- inability to afford the basic necessities of life.106 These ute to a perception of brain drain. issues are even more pronounced in rural areas. Gov- ernments find it difficult to translate public spending Why do health workers move? Research has shown that into effective services, even when such funding is avail- while economic factors (e.g. higher potential earn- able. Many countries (especially their public systems) ings) are important, so too are institutional factors are unable to employ newly qualified workers, even if (e.g. declining health services, lack of equipment and such workers are required, creating emigration pres- support), professional factors (e.g. upgrading profes- sure and dissatisfaction. A range of potential policy sional qualifications and skills), and political reasons options have been posited and these will be explored (e.g. crime and political violence).105 For example, further in this section.107 105.  A good summary can be found in James Buchan, Tina Parkin, and Julie Sochalski. 2003. ”International nurse mobility: Trends and policy implications.” Geneva: World Health Organization (WHO). https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/68061/WHO_EIP_OSD_2003.3.pdf 106.  Magda Awases, Akpa R. Gbary, Jennifer Nyoni, and Rufaro Chatora. 2004. “Migration of Health Professionals in Six Countries: A Synthesis Report.” Johannesburg: World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Office for Africa. https://www.afro.who.int/publications/ migration-health-professionals-six-countries-synthesis-report 107.  For example, raising wages and working conditions, providing fully or partially subsidized housing, providing pension plans and health insurance, ensuring good transport options, providing access to good schooling for health workers’ children, improving / providing infrastructure and equipment, and providing job security and career advancement opportunities. The best results, argue the World Health Organization (WHO), are those that bundle contextu- ally relevant recommendations. For more information, please see Gloria Pallares. 2020. “Financial incentives for frontline health workers.” Devex. October 30, 2020. https://www.devex.com/news/financial-incentives-for-frontline-health-workers-98447; and World Health Organization (WHO) 2010. “Increasing access to health workers in remote and rural areas through improved retention: Global policy recommendations.” Geneva: World Health Organization (WHO). https://www.who.int/hrh/retention/guidelines/en/ 66 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain Box 7. Germany’s Triple Win Since 2013, Germany’s Triple Win project has aimed Jointly, ZAV and GIZ select applicants and pass on to place qualified health professionals from third their details to the care facilities. Applicants must countries with German clinics, hospitals, and old have already undertaken a three-year nursing people’s homes. The project is being implemented training qualification. Before leaving, successful by the International Placement Services (ZAV) of applicants are given German language training and the Federal Employment Agency and the Deutsche cultural awareness and integration support. Nurses Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit are initially granted a one-year residence permit (GIZ) and is aimed at people from Serbia, Bosnia which can be extended and translated into perma- and Herzegovina, the Philippines, and Tunisia. nent residency in the long-run.2 By November 2019, These countries were selected as they have a sur- more than 3,000 nurses had been placed of which plus of well-trained nurses, thereby avoiding issues 2,100 had already moved.3 Demand continues to of brain drain.1 grow, despite COVID-19, and the project is expected to expand to new countries of origin in 2021. Source: Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH. 2021. “Sustainable recruitment of nurses (Triple Win)” Last updated January 2021. https://www.giz.de/en/worldwide/41533.html 1.  Juliana Ziegler. 2018. “A programme with three advantages.” Deutschland.de. September 6, 2019. https://www.deutschland.de/en/topic/life/ society-and-integration/working-as-a-nurse-in-germany-the-gizs-triple-win-project 2.  Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH. 2013. “Placement of qualified nurses from the Philippines in Germany.” https://poea.gov.ph/TWP/files/Triple%20Win%20Philipinen.pdf 3.  Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH. 2021. “Sustainable recruitment of nurses (Triple Win)” Last updated January 2021. https://www.giz.de/en/worldwide/41533.html Despite these impacts, countries of destination have markets in the US, UK, Saudi Arabia, the Netherlands, long encouraged health worker migration. From and Ireland.109 2010 to 2015, the number of foreign-born doctors in 18 OECD countries rose by over 20 percent.108 Many Experts are split on the impact of health worker migra- workers moved while young and obtained their qual- tion on patient outcomes. It is difficult to distinguish ifications in the country of destination, while others the impact of health worker migration on patient applied under increasingly less restrictive visa poli- outcomes from broader structural factors. Clemens cies and targeted pilot programs. Today, the US has the (2007) argues that Africa’s generally low staffing levels largest number of foreign-trained doctors and nurses, and poor public health conditions, for example, are followed by the UK. The Philippines is the largest the result of factors entirely unrelated to the inter- global supplier of nurses, predominantly supplying national movement of health professionals.110 On the 108.  rganisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). 2019. “Recent Trends in International Migration of Doctors, Nurses and Medical Students.” Paris: OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/5571ef48-en 109.  Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). 2019. “Recent Trends in International Migration of Doctors, Nurses and Medical Students.” Paris: OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/5571ef48-en. For more information see Fely Marilyn E Lorenzo, Jaime Galvez-Tan, Kriselle Icamina, and Lara Javier. 2007. “Nurse Migration from a Source Country Perspective: Philippine Country Case Study.” Health Services Research 42(3 Pt 2): 1406-1418. June 2007. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1955369; and Barbara Brush and Julie Sochalski. 2007. “International Nurse Migration: Lessons From the Philippines.” Policy, Politics, and Nursing Practice 8(1): 37-46. March 2007. https://www.researchgate.net/deref/http%3A%2F%2Fdx.doi.org%2F10.1177 %2F1527154407301393 110.  Michael Clemens. 2007. “Do Visas Kill? Health Effects of African Health Professional Emigration.” Center for Global Development (CGD) Working paper 114. Washington, DC: Center for Global Development (CGD). https://www.cgdev.org/publication/ do-visas-kill-health-effects-african-health-professional-emigration-working-paper-114 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 67 contrary, he argues. The availability of health care Promoting a Genuine Development Benefit migration pathways can actually incentivize people to undertake health worker training, thereby increas- To address this imbalance, the same WHO Resolution ing the number of skilled professionals available. For calls on states to develop mechanisms whereby coun- example, a recent study in the Philippines found that tries of destination can support the training of health for every nurse who moved abroad, approximately ten personnel and the development of health systems more individuals with nursing degrees graduated.111 within countries of origin. Such an approach has been Yet the study does not track the impact of this increase codified in the WHO Global Code of Practice on the on the number of health workers working in the Phil- International Recruitment of Health Personnel. The ippines, nor on health outcomes. Other studies have Code of Practice discourages private recruitment from found a perception that migration led to higher case- a list of countries that exhibit health worker short- loads, which overextends, overburdens, and demoti- age in a bid to avoid brain drain. Yet it supports health vates those who stay.112 worker migration from these countries as long as it is conducted within a comprehensive government to Even if the specific impact on patient outcomes is government (G2G) agreement which ensures a genuine difficult to identify, many argue that health worker development benefit for the country of origin.115 migration has an adverse impact on health systems overall. This impact is the main concern of the WHO’s There are many ways in which countries of destina- Resolution 57.19: International migration of health tion can ensure a meaningful development benefit personnel: a challenge for health systems in devel- from any health care migration partnership. As dis- oping countries.113 In situations of substantial health cussed above, health systems in countries of origin worker migration, countries of origin are effectively suffer from a range of issues which constrain the sys- subsidizing the training of medical staff who benefit tem’s ability to recruit and retain workers. Here, it is overseas markets and receive very little compensa- crucial to go beyond merely increasing supply. If coun- tion in return. For example, Mills et al (2011) argue tries of origin are unable to employ newly qualified that “medical education is typically highly subsi- workers, especially within the public system, this will dized by the public sector in African countries, with merely create more emigration pressure and dissatis- more than half of the medical schools in Sub-Saha- faction. Instead, countries of destination should inter- ran Africa either offering free tuition or charging rogate the reasons why more qualified workers are not less than USD$1,000 yearly.”114 Yet countries of origin trained and employed, and tackle these. As the WHO cannot always recoup this investment. They estimate has mentioned, “the policy prescription should there- that for every Nigerian doctor that moves to the UK, fore focus on treating the underlying causes (in terms Nigeria has lost $71,757 in investment. of improving the work environment, support systems 111.  Paolo Abarcar and Caroline Theoharides. 2020. “Medical Worker Migration and Origin-Country Human Capital: Evidence from U.S. Visa Policy.” Amherst College Draft Working Paper July 2020. https://www.amherst.edu/system/files/Abarcar_Theoharides_2020_July_FINAL.pdf 112.  Magda Awases, Akpa R. Gbary, Jennifer Nyoni, and Rufaro Chatora. 2004. “Migration of Health Professionals in Six Countries: A Synthesis Report.” Johannesburg: World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Office for Africa. https://www.afro.who.int/publications/ migration-health-professionals-six-countries-synthesis-report 113.  World Health Organization (WHO) “WHA57.19 International migration of health personnel: a challenge for health systems in developing countries.” Resolutions and Decisions of the 57th World Health Assembly. https://apps.who.int/gb/ebwha/pdf_files/WHA57/A57_R19-en.pdf 114.  Edward J. Mills, Steve Kanters, Amy Hagopian, Nick Bansback, Jean Nachega, Mark Alberton, Christopher G Au-Yeung, Andy Mtambo, Ivy L. Bourgeault, Samuel Luboga, Robert S. Hogg, and Nathan Ford. 2011. “The financial cost of doctors emigrating from Sub-Saharan Africa: human capital analysis.” BMJ 343. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.d7031 115.  Michael Clemens and Helen Dempster. 2021. “Ethical Recruitment of Health Workers: Using Bilateral Cooperation to Fulfil the World Health Organizations’ Global Code of Practice.” Washington, DC: Center for Global Development (CGD). https://www.cgdev.org/publication/ ethical-recruitment-health-workers-using-bilateral-cooperation-fulfill-world-health 68 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain Box 8. The WHO International Platform Box 9. The US Nursing Education on Health Worker Mobility Partnership Initiative (NEPI) The WHO Global Strategy on Human Resources In 2003, the US enacted the President’s Emer- for Health, published in 2016, called on WHO gency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) which to work with ILO, OECD, and other actors, to sought to address the global HIV/AIDS epi- establish an international platform on health demic through tackling a number of factors, worker mobility.1 The vision of the platform, including the lack of quality nursing and mid- launched in September 2019, is to maximize wifery education in Sub-Saharan Africa. As a the benefits and mitigate the adverse effects result, in 2011, PEPFAR’s Nursing Education from health worker mobility through elevated Partnership Initiative (NEPI) was launched.1 dialogue, knowledge, and cooperation.2 To do Between 2011 and 2017, it supported 22 nursing this, members and other relevant stakeholders education institutions across six African coun- pledge to work together to refine partnership tries: Ethiopia, Democratic Republic of Congo, mechanisms, enhance national reporting on Lesotho, Malawi, and Zambia. NEPI’s findings progress against the Code of Practice, support provide a useful framework for thinking about countries with gathering data and developing the challenges that face nursing education agreements, and publish research.3 within Africa, and ways in which to improve it through updated curricula, training the Source: World Health Organization (WHO). “International Platform on Health Worker Mobility.” https://www.who.int/hrh/ trainers, and the establishment of nursing migration/int-platform-hw-mobility/en/ councils.2 1.  World Health Organization (WHO). 2016. “Global strategy Source: Lyn Middleton, Andrea A Howard, Jennifer Dohrn, on human resources for health: Workforce 2030.” Geneva: Deborah Von Zinkernagel, Deborah Parham Hopson, Barbara World Health Organization (WHO). https://www.who.int/hrh/ Aranda-Naranjo, Carolyn Hall, Address Malata, Thokozani resources/globstrathrh-2030/en/ Bvumbwe, Adeline Chabela, Nthabiseng Molise, and Wafaa M 2.  World Health Organization (WHO). “International Platform El-Sadr. 2014. “The Nursing Education Partnership Initiative on Health Worker Mobility.” https://www.who.int/hrh/ (NEPI): innovations in nursing and midwifery education.” migration/int-platform-hw-mobility/en/ Academic Medicine 89(8) S24-S28. August 2014. https://jour- 3.  International Labour Organization (ILO), Organisation for nals.lww.com/academicmedicine/Fulltext/2014/08001/ Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and World The_Nursing_Education_Partnership_Initiative.9.aspx Health Organization (WHO). “The International Platform on Health Worker Mobility: Elevating dialogue, knowledge and international cooperation.” https://www.who.int/hrh/migration/ International-platform-HW-mobility.pdf?ua=1 1.  Lyn Middleton, Andrea A Howard, Jennifer Dohrn, Deborah Von Zinkernagel, Deborah Parham Hopson, Barbara Aranda-Naranjo, Carolyn Hall, Address Malata, Thokozani Bvumbwe, Adeline Chabela, Nthabiseng Molise, and Wafaa M El-Sadr. 2014. “The Nursing Education Partnership Initiative (NEPI): innovations in nursing and midwifery education.” Academic Medicine 89(8) S24-S28. August 2014. https://jour- nals.lww.com/academicmedicine/Fulltext/2014/08001/ The_Nursing_Education_Partnership_Initiative.9.aspx 2.  Susan Michaels-Strasser, Janel Smith, Judy Khanyola, Roberta Sutton, Tashtiana Price, and Wafaa M. El Sadr. 2018. “Strengthening the Quality and Quantity of the Nursing and Midwifery Workforce: Report on Eight Years of the NEPI Project.” Annals of Global Health 84(1): 31-35. http://doi.org/10.29024/aogh.6 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 69 and remuneration), rather than attempting to address such funding only equates to 4 percent of development in isolation the migratory phenomenon.”116 assistance for health.117 Much of this support has gone towards Sub-Saharan African countries (Figure 17) and While there are myriad potential investments, expand- yet it remains insufficient. WHO estimates that funding ing the training infrastructure is likely to be a require- for nursing education alone needs to increase by $10 per ment of any health care Global Skill Partnership. The capita in low- and middle-income countries.118 Coun- amount of donor funding that has been directed toward tries of destination could support such infrastructure by human resources for health has increased from $34 supporting and sustaining the human resource devel- million in 1990 to $1.5 billion in 2016. This funding sup- opment plans of countries of origin thereby contribut- ports training, education, infrastructure, and the pro- ing to sustainable and equitable health systems.119 vision of equipment. Yet despite these grand figures, Box 10. Corvus Health Corvus Health was formed to provide services Tunisia, Kenya, Ethiopia, Sudan, and Ghana. throughout the health worker life cycle, with a It helps to expand the quality of these schools, goal of reducing the global shortage and mald- improving curricula, business and operational istribution of health workers around the world. plans, and sharing best practices. Corvus Health In addition to broader efforts advising health then uses these schools as recruiters to place care providers and training institutions, Corvus workers in health care facilitates in countries of Health also has a model of sustainable health destination such as Canada. Corvus Health was worker recruitment that increases the number one of 20 finalists in the Global Forum for Migra- of health workers trained in origin countries. It tion and Development’s 2021 Migration Chal- works in partnership with private health train- lenge and it is interested in including European ing institutions in countries of origin including countries of destination in the future. Source: https://corvushealth.com/services/ 116.  World Health Organization (WHO) 2020. “State of the World’s Nursing Report -2020.” Geneva: World Health Organization (WHO). https://www.who.int/ publications-detail-redirect/9789240003279 117.  Angela E. Micah, Bianca S. Zlavog, Catherine S. Chen, and Abigail Chapin. 2018. “Donor financing of human resources for health, 1990-2016: An examina- tion of trends, sources of funds, and recipients.” Globalization and Health 14(1). October 2018. https://www.researchgate.net/deref/https%3A%2F%2Fglobaliza- tionandhealth.biomedcentral.com%2Farticles%2F10.1186%2Fs12992-018-0416-z 118.  World Health Organization (WHO) 2020. “State of the World’s Nursing Report -2020.” Geneva: World Health Organization (WHO). https://www.who.int/ publications-detail-redirect/9789240003279 119.  Remco van de Pas and Linda Mans. 2018. “Global Skill Partnerships & Health Workforce Mobility: Pursing a Race to the Bottom?” Discussion paper for the Stakeholder’s Dialogue on International Health Worker Migration and the Global Skill Partnerships, 9 December, Marrakesh. Morocco. Ferney-Voltaire: Public Services International (PSI). http://world-psi.org/sites/default/files/attachment/news/web_2018_mig_report_marrakesh.pdf 70 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain Figure 17. Most development assistance for human resources for health goes to Sub-Saharan Africa Percent 100 80 60 40 20 0 Health burden Health workers Development assistance Total development for human resource for health assistance for health Sub-Saharan Africa Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania South Asia North Africa and Middle East Latin America and Caribbean High-income Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia Source: Angela E. Micah, Bianca S. Zlavog, Catherine S. Chen, and Abigail Chapin. 2018. “Donor financing of human resources for health, 1990-2016: An examination of trends, sources of funds, and recipients.” Globalization and Health 14(1). October 2018. https://www.researchgate.net/deref/https%3A%2F%2Fglobalizationandhealth.biomedcentral. com%2Farticles%2F10.1186%2Fs12992-018-0416-z Health Care in Nigeria under-five mortality rate of 158 deaths per 1,000 live births among the poorest quintile is eight times worse Nigeria needs more health care workers to serve its than in the richest quintile.120 In the Northern region of rapidly expanding population. In 2020, Nigeria had the country, stunting rates among children under-five 1.2 nurses and midwives and 0.4 physicians for every are three times higher than in the South.121 There is a 1,000 inhabitants, slightly higher than the Sub-Sa- high degree of heterogeneity in the availability of health haran African average but worse than many of its care services across different regions in Nigeria with regional peers such as Ghana, Namibia, and Zambia as an urgent need to increase the number of high-quality well as structural and aspirational peer countries such health workers and improve their distribution. as Indonesia and Vietnam (Figure 18). Health care in Nigeria is delivered through a three- Nigeria’s health-related indicators highlight the tier system consisting of the Federal Ministry of Health extent of health care needs in the country and show (FMH), the respective States’ Ministries of Health, and the great variation between income groups and regions National Primary Healthcare Development Agency. Ter- in access to health care services. For example, Nigeria tiary health care delivery is provided through teaching has the highest under-five mortality rate in the world hospitals which are managed by Colleges of Medicine in with 117 deaths per 1,000 live births. More starkly, the either Federal- or State-owned universities; secondary 120.  World Bank. 2018. “Investing in Human Capital for Nigeria’s Future.” Nigeria Biannual Economic Update Fall 2018. Washington, DC: World Bank. http:// documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/346771542864299850/pdf/132316-21-11-2018-17-31-9-NigeriaBEUAMF.pdf 121.  National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF). 2017 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 2016-17, Survey Findings Report. Abuja, Nigeria. Available at: https://www.unicef.org/nigeria/sites/unicef.org.nigeria/files/2018-09/Nigeria-MICS-2016-17.pdf Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 71 Figure 18. Nigeria has fewer nurses/midwives and physicians per 1,000 people than many of their its peer countries (per 1,000 people) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 ia n da m a sh o ad a re p. na sia ia an a bi bi ric io as ib er Re na oi de ha st an Ch ne m m t aF am Af ig Iv ra ki et la ab G Rw Za lo do N d' Pa de in Vi ng n N Co Ar In ra te rk Fe Ba ha Co t, Bu n yp Sa ia Eg ss b- Ru Su Nurses and midwives Physicians Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators. Nigeria’s peers are selected based on the groupings provided in the World Bank Systematic Country Diagnostic (2019) report. health care delivery is provided through Federal Medical $12.45 per capita and 0.58 percent as a percentage of Centers and General Hospitals, while Health Centers GDP is lower than the Sub-Saharan African average of provide primary health care at the community level.122 $30.25 and 1.87 percent, respectively, and also lower Seventy-three percent of hospitals and clinics are pub- than its regional peers Ghana ($30.3 and 1.38 percent) licly funded whereas 27 percent are privately-owned. and Kenya ($37.24 and 2.18 percent) respectively.126 Around 85 percent of hospitals and clinics offer primary Private health care providers are funded by the users. care facilities with 14.5 percent offering secondary care and 0.4 percent offering tertiary care.123 The Workforce The public health care system is funded through annual budgets including the National Health Insur- According to the 2018-19 National Living Standard ance Scheme which covers certain eligible Nigerians Survey (NLSS), around 3 percent of the active work- who contribute to the scheme.124 In 2020, the health ing-age population between the ages of 15 and 64 in care budget was a total of N46 billion, which was N4.15 Nigeria were employed in the health care sector. Of billion less than the allocation for 2019.125 Nigeria’s 2018 those working in the health sector, 57 percent were domestic general government health expenditure of employed in urban areas and 43 percent were employed 122.  Francis Koce, Gurch Randhawa, and Bertha Ochieng. 2019. ‘Understanding Healthcare Self-referral in Nigeria from the Service Users’ Perspective: a Qualitative Study of Niger State.” BMC Health Services Research 19(1) 209. April 2019. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12913-019-4046-9 123.  Nigeria Health Facility Registry, retrieved from https://hfr.health.gov.ng/ 124.  Nigeria National Health Insurance Scheme. See more at https://www.nhis.gov.ng/ 125.  For more information, please see Paul Adepoju. 2020. “A breakdown of Nigeria’s 2020 budget for health.” Healthnews. http://www.healthnews. ng/a-breakdown-of-nigerias-2020-budget-for-health/ 126.  World Bank. “World Health Organization Global Health Expenditure database.“ Available at: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.XPD.GHED. GD.ZS?locations=ZG-NG&most_recent_value_desc=true 72 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain in rural areas; over 60 percent have completed tertiary As of 2018, Nigeria had 180,709 nurses and 120,870 education and an additional 26 percent have completed midwives registered with the Nursing and Midwifery secondary education; 94 percent were between the ages Council of Nigeria (NMCN). Eighty-seven percent of of 25 and 64; and 54 percent were women. nurses and midwives are females and 72 percent are between the ages of 30 and 60 years. Nigeria’s ratio The health workforce in Nigeria is made up of medical of 1 nurse for every 1,135 in the population and 1 professionals including doctors, dentists, nurses, midwife for every 1,697 in the population is among pharmacists, medical laboratory scientists, commu- the lowest in the world and similar to the Sub-Saharan nity health practitioners, and other clinical support African average. workers. Table 5, which is based on the Nigeria Health Workforce Country Profile of 2018 and is not exhaustive Based on data from NMCN, critical nursing shortages of the categories of health care professionals in Nigeria, in Nigeria are primarily found in the areas of Car- shows that nurses make up the highest number of diothoracic, Anesthesia, Burns and Plastic, Occupa- health workforce when compared to other profession- tional Health, Nephrology, and Otorhinolaryngology. als during a given period. Note that while Nigeria has In terms of nursing related technology and equip- one of the highest health workforce densities in Africa, ment, Nigeria primarily faces shortages in Automated it is still below the recommended standard.127 The Infusion Pump, Portable Cardiac Monitor, Antishock WHO’s indicative minimum density to achieve the SDG Garment, Glucometer, Doppler Fetal Monitor, Stan- Target 3.8 regarding UHC is 4.45 doctors, nurses, and dard Delivery and Smart Beds, and Electronic Health midwives per 1,000 population; Nigeria has below 2. 1. Records (ERS) and Computer Systems. Table 5. Profile of health care professionals in Nigeria as of 2018 Profession Number Registered Number per 100,000 Ratio to Population Doctors 74,543 36.3 1:2,753 Dentists 4,358 2.12 1:49,075 Nurses 180,709 88.1 1:1,135 Midwives 120,870 58.9 1:1,697 Pharmacists 24,668 12 1:8,317 Community Health Officers 8,533 4 1:24,044 Community Health Extension Workers 61,668 30 1:3,327 Source: Federal Ministry of Health, Nigeria. 2018. Nigeria Health Workforce Country Profile. Available upon request. 127.  World Health Organization (WHO). 2016. “Health Workforce Requirements for Universal Health Coverage and the Sustainable Development Goals.” Background paper No. 1 to the Global Strategy on Human Resources for Health. Geneva: World Health Organization. https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/han- dle/10665/250330/9789241511407-eng.pdf Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 73 Health Care Management and Training specialties. The three categories of nurses most fre- quently trained by the council were in the areas of The NMCN trained more than 35,000 general nurses Perioperative, Mental Health, and Pediatric whereas and more than 19,000 midwives between 2015 and the lowest numbers of nurses trained were in areas 2020. Figure 19 (Panel A) shows that the number of of Cardiothoracic, Burns and Plastic, Nephrology, and general nurses trained by NMCN has increased from Occupational Health. These have been highlighted by 5,392 in 2015 to 8,261 in 2020. Similarly, the number of the NMCN as areas with critical shortages of nurses midwives trained by the council increased from 2,690 and areas that can benefit from further investments in in 2015 to 3,704 in 2020. Figure 19 (Panel B) shows the training, infrastructure, and equipment. number of nurses trained between 2015 and 2020 by Figure 19. The number of nurses and midwives trained by the NMCN has increased from 2015 to 2020 Panel A: It has not kept pace with the need of the growing needs or population growth in Nigeria 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Number of General Nurses Trained Number of Midwives Trained Panel B: Most of Nigeria’s nurses are not being trained in categories where shortages exist Mental Health Perioperative Paediatric Otorhinolaryngology Orthopaedic Ophthalamic Occupational Health Nephrology Critical Care Cariothoracic Burns and plastic Nursing Anaesthetia Accident and Emergency 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 Number of nurses trained 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Administrative Data provided by the Nursing and Midwifery Council of Nigeria (NMCN) 74 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain In addition to 34 departments of nursing in Nigerian nursing, midwifery and community midwifery added universities, as of 2018, there were 262 health care 8,154 graduates to its numbers; 3,561 of existing prac- training institutions nationwide—171 basic nursing titioners (43 percent of the number added) migrated schools, 83 basic or post-basic midwifery schools, and the same year.129 8 community midwifery schools. Out of the 262 train- ing institutions, 99 were fully accredited, 147 had pro- A prospective trainee must present a minimum of visional accreditation, and 16 had accreditation denied five O Level credit passes at not more than two sit- or withdrawn. As Figure 20 shows, nursing training tings from any of the following: West African Examina- institutes are located in different states of the Federa- tion Council (WAEC), National Examination Council tion, with 50 percent located in 10 states, 6 of which are (NECO) or National Business and Technical Exam- located in the South and only 2 in the North, pointing inations Board (NABTEB).130 The minimum entry age to acute shortages of training institutions in the North- for a trainee is 16 years.131 Candidates may undertake ern regions of the country.128 In 2018, the profession of a 3-year basic nursing training in a School of Nursing Figure 20. Nursing institutions are concentrated in the Southern regions of Nigeria Sokoto 7 Katsina Kebbi 3 Jigawa 2 Yobe Zamfara 3 3 3 Kano Borno 11 8 Kaduna Bauchi Gombe 16 6 2 North Central Region 35 Niger North East Region 25 3 Adamawa 4 FCT Plateau North West Region 45 Kwara Abuja 8 Nassarawa South East Region 53 8 5 Oyo 2 South South Region 52 13 Kogi Taraba Ekiti 5 South West Region 52 Osun 4 Benue 2 Ogun 11 4 8 Ondo Enugu Lagos 2 Edo 15 Ebonyi 14 18 Anambra 6 13 Abia Cross Delta Imo 9 River 6 10 10 Akwa Bayelsa Rivers Ibom 3 6 9 Source: Ezra Gayawan, Ekundayo D Arogundade, and Samson B Adebayo. 2014. “Possible determinants and spatial patterns of anaemia among young children in Nigeria: a Bayesian semi-parametric modelling.” International Health 6(1): 35-45. March 2014. https://doi.org/10.1093/inthealth/iht034, modified to show number of nursing training insti- tutions in each State and the Federal Capital Territory 128.  Edo (18), Kaduna (16), Enugu (15), Lagos (14), Anambra (13), Oyo (13), Kano (11), Osun (11), Cross River (10), and Imo (10). 129.  Africa Health Workforce Observatory. 2008. “Human Resources for Health: Country Profile Nigeria.” Abuja: Africa Health Workforce Observatory. https:// www.who.int/workforcealliance/knowledge/resources/hrh_profile_nigeria/en/ 130.  The credit passes must be in in Mathematics, English Language, Physics, Chemistry, and Biology. 131.  Nursing and Midwifery Council of Nigeria. “Programs and Requirements.” https://www.nmcn.gov.ng/requirement.html Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 75 followed by a 1-year Midwifery training; or they can employ them on equal terms as their indigenous enroll for the 5-year nursing program in a Department nurses rather than employ them on contract basis. of Nursing at the universities. Both routes consist of classroom and practical train- Migration ing. However, while the former entails more of hos- pital placement, the latter entails more of classroom The draft National Policy on Health Workforce Migra- training. The 3-year trainees receive a Certificate in tion for Nigeria does not prohibit migration. Rather, General Nursing while the 5-year graduates receive the policy recommends better and more ethical health multiple certificates including the Certificate in General worker migration which allows countries to work Nursing, General Midwifery Certificate, Certificate in together in finding mutually beneficial solutions to Public Health, and Bachelor of Nursing Science (B. N. their respective health workforce problems, balancing Sc.).132 Nurses can pursue specialist trainings in different the migration rights of individual health workers with fields.133 Each training takes 18 months to complete.134 the health care needs of the population they are meant to serve.138 Over 600,000 nurses are needed in Nigeria between 2016 and 2030.135 As of 2018, Nigeria had less than Migration of nurses has been recognized as one of 200,000 nurses which means a shortage of over the critical issues facing the Human Resources for 400,000 nurses.136 The top five states and territory with Health (HRH) policy, planning, and management in the highest number of practicing nurses per 100,000 Nigeria. The goal is to provide appropriate and ade- members of the population are the Federal Capital Ter- quate human resources for health care at all levels of ritory (186.4), Edo (118.4), Lagos (113.7), Enugu (105.1), the health care system. There are no official legal path- and Kwara (103.2); while the bottom 5 are Jigawa (17.7), ways for Nurses to migrate for employment. However, Kano (20.8), Katsina (21.2), Kebbi (22.5), and Yobe the NMCN which regulates the Nursing and Midwifery (25.9).137 This means that Nigeria could benefit from sector and registers qualified nurses and oversees the more nursing training and employment, especially in accreditation of Schools of Nursing and Midwifery, also the North-West and North-East where the lowest den- issues the Letter of Good Standing, a document that sities were recorded. Some unemployed nurses could verifies certificates and confirms registration status of be absorbed to shore up the number of health workers those who wish to migrate.139 especially in states with the lowest densities and to limit the numbers migrating to work abroad. Nurses Thirteen percent of the nurses and midwives who were from the Southern states could be attracted to work registered in 2016 requested Letters of Good Stand- in the North if the Northern states government would ing from the NMCN and their destination countries 132.  Nursing – University of Lagos. “Welcome to the Department of Nursing.” https://unilag.edu.ng/?page_id=2836 133.  Psychiatrist, Accident and Emergency, Public Health, Pediatric, Dialysis/Renal, Peri-operative, Occupational Health, Anesthetics, Ophthalmic, Ear, Nose & Throat (ENT), Burns and Scald/Disaster, Oncology, Orthopedic, Neonatal, Intensive/Critical Care, Nurse Tutor/ Educator, and Cardiothoracic nursing. For more information please see Damilola Bode-Benson, 2016. “Nursing Specialties: Availability, Choices and Reason. NursingWorld. August 3, 2016. https:// www.nursingworldnigeria.com/2016/08/nursing-specialties-availability-choices-and-reason-by-damilola-bode-benson. Radiography, Urology, Respiratory, Rehabilitation, Otorhinolaryngology, Ophthalmic, Nephrology, and Hospice/Palliative Care nursing. For more information please see National Association of Nigeria Nurses and Midwives. “Some Classification of Nurses.” https://www.nannm.com.ng/some-classification-of-nurses/ 134.  Ahmadu Bello University Teaching Hospital (Abuth) Zaria. “Postbasic Nursing.” https://abuth.gov.ng/index.php/schools/postbasic-nursing 135.  Oladimeji Adebayo, Adetunji Labiran, Franklin Emerenini, and Leslie Omoruyi. 2016. “Health Workforce for 2016- 2030: Will Nigeria have enough?” International Journal of Innovation Research and Growth 4(1): 9-16. https://www.researchgate.net/ publication/309399635_Health_Workforce_for_2016-2030_Will_Nigeria_have_enough 136.  Africa Health Workforce Observatory. 2008. “Human Resources for Health: Country Profile Nigeria.” Abuja: Africa Health Workforce Observatory. https:// www.who.int/workforcealliance/knowledge/resources/hrh_profile_nigeria/en/ 137. Ibid. 138.  Draft National Policy on Human Resources for Health Migration. 139.  Nursing and Midwifery Council of Nigeria. “Verification of Certificate.” https://www.nmcn.gov.ng/verify.html 76 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain were the US, Canada, the UK, United Arab Emirates The Workforce (UAE), Australia, and Ghana.140 Between 2017 and 2020, the number of nurses and midwives requesting for NHS staff are employed throughout the four countries Letters of Good Standing from NMCN progressively that make up the UK, though the NHS is the largest increased—from 2,689 in 2017 to 7,360 in 2020, which as employer in England with nearly 1.2 million full-time a proportion of general nurses trained is a rise from 57 equivalent (FTE) staff.144 Around half of all employees percent of nurses requesting the Letter of Good Stand- are professional qualified clinical staff working in hos- ing in 2017 to 89 percent in 2020.141 In 2018, Nigeria was pital, community, and primary care settings. These one of the top five countries whose candidates success- workers are direct employees of various NHS trusts fully took the US nurse licensure examinations.142 which manage facilities around the country. Today, there are around 150,000 doctors and 330,000 nurses and midwives working for the NHS, in addition to clin- Health Care in the UK ical support staff, scientists, technical staff, infrastruc- ture support, and ambulance workers, to name a few The majority of health care in the UK is delivered (Figure 21). through the country’s free, publicly-funded, health care system—the National Health Service (NHS). There is no single, robust data source on the level of While there is a smaller private health care sector, the vacancies within the NHS, but estimates show that majority of employers (and employees) reside in the there are large and widespread staff shortages. Between public sector. Policy for health in the UK is devolved October and December 2019 alone, 100,000 FTE vacan- to the Administrations in each of the four nations. cies were advertised, a shortfall of 8.1 percent.145 While NHS England and NHS Improvement lead the NHS these vacancies also reflect standard turnover, many in England and the Department of Health and Social are due to widespread and persistent shortages. In June Care (DHSC) provides the overarching policy and 2020, NHS hospitals, mental health services, and com- strategy. NHS England and Ireland is responsible for munity providers reported a shortage of nearly 84,000 overseeing the commissioning, the planning, and the staff, as well as 2,500 FTE GPs.146 These shortages are not buying, of NHS services. The service is funded through felt evenly, with the highest percentage of vacancies in direct taxation: in 2018, the UK spent £214.4 billion on London (10.7 percent) and lowest in the North East and health care, which equals 10 percent of gross domes- Yorkshire (5.5 percent).147 The majority of vacancies are tic product. Health expenditure has been growing over for registered nurses and midwives, with administra- recent years, with spending on long-term care growing tive and clerical support, and allied health professions, at an even faster rate due to the UK’s shifting and aging coming in second and third (Figure 22). Many of these demographics.143 nurses are needed within critical, community, mental, 140.  World Health Organization (WHO) and European Union. 2017. “A Dynamic Understanding of Health Worker Migration.” https://www.who.int/hrh/ HWF17002_Brochure.pdf 141.  Administrative Data provided by the Nursing and Midwifery Council of Nigeria (NMCN) 142.  National Council of State Boards of Nursing. 2018. “The 2018 NCLEX Examination.” https://yearinreview.ncsbn.org/2018/nclex.htm 143.  Office for National Statistics. 2018. “Healthcare expenditure, UK Health Accounts: 2018.” https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/ healthandsocialcare/healthcaresystem/bulletins/ukhealthaccounts/2018 144.  1.2 million in England, 162,000 in Scotland, 89,000 in Wales, and 64,000 in Northern Ireland. Please see Full Fact. 2017. “How many NHS employees are there?” June 1, 2017. https://fullfact.org/health/how-many-nhs-employees-are-there/ and The King’s Fund. 2021. “NHS workforce: our position.” Last updated February 26, 2021. https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/projects/positions/nhs-workforce 145.  Lucina Rolewicz and Billy Palmer. 2019. “The NHS workforce in numbers.” Nuffield Trust. Last updated February 29, 2020. https://www.nuffieldtrust.org. uk/resource/the-nhs-workforce-in-numbers 146.  NHS Digital. 2020. “NHS Workforce Statistics – June 2020.” September 24, 2020. https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/ nhs-workforce-statistics/june-2020 147.  NHS Digital. 2020 “NHS Vacancy Statistics (and previous NHS Vacancies Survey.” https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/ nhs-vacancies-survey Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 77 Figure 21. The Workforce in the UK’s National Health Service Support to clinical staff Nurses and midwives NHS infrastructure support Scientific, therapeutic, and technical staff Hospital and Community Health Services doctors GP staff: suuport and admin GP staff: GPs GP staff: practice nurses Ambulance staff Other 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 Source: Lucina Rolewicz and Billy Palmer. 2019. “The NHS workforce in numbers.” Nuffield Trust. Last updated February 29, 2020. https://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/resource/ the-nhs-workforce-in-numbers Figure 22. Staff shortages in the UK’s National Health Service Nursing and Midwifery Registered Administrative and Clerical Allied Health Professionals Medical and Dental Additional Clinical Services Additional Professional Scientific Healthcare Scientists Estates and Ancillary Students 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 Source: Lucina Rolewicz and Billy Palmer. 2019. “The NHS workforce in numbers.” Nuffield Trust. Last updated February 29, 2020. https://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/resource/ the-nhs-workforce-in-numbers Note: FTE number of vacancies, October-December 2019 and social care, while there is an increasing need for at least 250,000 by 2030. Nursing remains the key area aged care nursing assistants as well. of shortage and requires over 100,000 new workers by 2028-29.148 These unfilled vacancies are putting pres- The Health Foundation, King’s Fund, and Nuffield Trust sure on remaining staff, leading to high levels of stress, have estimated that without policy action and invest- absenteeism, and turnover. They have also led to an ment, shortages could grow to 200,000 by 2023-24 and over-reliance on temporary staff, which strains already 148.  Ben Gerschlick and Anita Charlesworth. 2019. “Health and social care workforce: Priorities for the new government.” The Health Foundation. November 27, 2019. https://www.health.org.uk/publications/long-reads/health-and-social-care-workforce 78 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain tight budgets.149 Such pressures have been exacer- 2. Setting requirements for professional education; bated by a lack of new staff coming through the system. 3. Promoting and developing standards, promoting Between 2010 and 2018, the amount of care provided by lifelong learning; and the health service increased by a third, yet the number 4. Investigating issues with nurse and midwife of nurses barely shifted.150 In 2021, it was found that 28 conduct. percent of nurses and health professionals leave the NHS within the first three years of service.151 As described above, nurses who have completed their qualification and registered with the NMC are then Health Care Management and Training employed by UK Trusts around the country. If they wish, they can then apply to join a union. There are Given the large nursing staff shortages within the NHS, three nursing unions: the Royal College of Nursing the following section will focus on the process by which (RCN), UNISON, and Unite. The RCN is the world’s UK nationals become a nurse in the UK and the main largest nursing union and professional body. They actors involved. There are four main fields of nursing represent more than 450,000 nurses, student nurses, in the UK: adult, children’s, learning disability, and midwives, and nursing support workers, offering “free mental health nursing.152 Some degrees allow trainees and confidential advice and support on employment to specialize in two of these fields. To become an adult matters, career development, immigration, welfare nurse, trainees will need to have five GCSE’s and two A and more.”154 UNISON acts for members in public levels at secondary education level, and then apply for a services, including health care,155 and Unite has over nursing undergraduate degree at a number of universi- 100,000 members within the health care sector.156 ties throughout the UK. The Bachelor of Nursing degree There are also a number of smaller unions.157 generally takes three years and involves both theoret- ical study and a clinical placement. If trainees already Many have attributed these staffing shortages to a have a degree in a relevant subject, they can undertake failure to invest in training. OECD data shows that the a postgraduate degree which only takes two years. number of people with a nursing qualification per head of population in the UK is below the OECD and These courses must be approved by the Nursing and the EU-14 average (Figure 23). In 2011, the number of Midwifery Council (NMC) – the professional regulator training places for nurses was reduced by 10 percent. for the nursing and midwifery sector.153 They have four Nurses were able to access bursaries to help support main roles: their training and living costs, yet this scheme was capped due to limited funds. In a bid to increase take- 1. Maintaining a register of nurses and midwives who up, this scheme was dropped in 2017 but it did not meet the requirements for UK registration; lead to an increase in people taking up training places. 149.  Lucina Rolewicz and Billy Palmer. 2019. “The NHS workforce in numbers.” Nuffield Trust. Last updated February 29, 2020. https://www.nuffieldtrust.org. uk/resource/the-nhs-workforce-in-numbers 150.  Anita Charlesworth. 2021. “Staff shortages left the NHS vulnerable to the COVID-19 storm.” The Health Foundation. January 12, 2021. https://www.health. org.uk/news-and-comment/blogs/staff-shortages-left-the-nhs-vulnerable-to-the-covid-19-storm 151.  The King’s Fund. 2021. “NHS workforce: our position.” Last updated February 26, 2021. https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/projects/positions/nhs-workforce 152.  NHS. “How to become a nurse.” https://www.healthcareers.nhs.uk/explore-roles/nursing/studying-nursing 153.  Nursing and Midwifery Council. “Who we are and what we do.” https://www.nmc.org.uk/about-us/our-role/ 154.  Royal College of Nursing. “What the RCN does.” https://www.rcn.org.uk/about-us/what-the-rcn-does 155.  UNISON. See https://www.unison.org.uk/ 156.  UNICTE. See https://unitetheunion.org/ 157.  Polly Adgey. “What is a nursing Union and Why Should I Consider Joining One?” SureCert. September 6, 2018. https://www.surecert.com/blog/ what-is-nursing-union-why-should-consider-joining-one/ Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 79 Attrition remains high—one in four nursing students These staff shortages have long been front of mind for does not graduate.158 Thankfully, things may be slowly the UK’s successive governments. In 2020, the new shifting. The number of FTE nurses and health visitors Conservative government pledged to increase nurse rose by 4.8 percent in the year to June 2020.159 COVID- numbers by 50,000 over the next five years, and offered 19 has led to record numbers of students enrolling in additional cost of living support of £5,000.162 A new “We nursing programs, up 32 percent in the last year.160 Yet are the NHS, We are Nurses” campaign is attempting to advocates warn that this is still not meeting the scale of recruit teenagers and those switching careers.163 The the shortages, with many pushing for a robust, long- NHS’ Long Term Plan acknowledges the shifting needs term approach to measuring demand and potential of the sector, and is supported by a workforce devel- supply of nurses.161 opment strategy in the form of the NHS People Plan.164 Such interventions, coupled with long-term invest- ment, will needed to reduce the impact of these broader Figure 23. The number of people in the UK with a nursing qualification per head of population is one of the lowest rates in Europe 120 100 80 60 40 30.88 20 0 Luxembourg Czech Republic Mexico Italy Turkey Spain Lithuania Poland Israel Portugal Slovak Republic Latvia Estonia Ireland Chile Belgium Austria France New Zealand Denmark Japan Germany Iceland Canada Netherlands Hungary United States Slovenia Norway Greece Finland Australia Korea Switzerland United Kingdom Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) “Nursing graduates.” Retrieved March 19, 2021. https://data.oecd.org/healthres/nursing-graduates.htm Note: Data from 2019 or latest available. 158.  Ben Gerschlick and Anita Charlesworth. 2019. “Health and social care workforce: Priorities for the new government.” The Health Foundation. November 27, 2019. https://www.health.org.uk/publications/long-reads/health-and-social-care-workforce 159.  James Buchan, Jane Ball, Nihar Shembavnekar, and Anita Charlesworth. 2020. “Building the NHS nursing workforce in England: Workforce pressure points.” London: The Health Foundation. https://www.health.org.uk/publications/reports/building-the-nhs-nursing-workforce-in-england 160.  BBC. 2021. “Covid-19: Record number of students apply for nursing”. February 18, 2021. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-56111379 161.  For example, the Health Foundation’s REAL Centre produced a model that can be used to develop supply projections of the nursing workforce with a time horizon of 10 to 20 years. See Siôn Cave, Emma Woodham, Dave Exelby, Keith Derbyshire, Rosemary Wildblood, and Nihar Shembavnekar. 2020. “Nurse supply model: progress so far.” London: The Health Foundation. https://www.health.org.uk/publications/nurse-supply-model-progress-so-far 162.  Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) 2019. “Nursing students to receive £5,000 payment a year.” Published December 18, 2019. https://www.gov. uk/government/news/nursing-students-to-receive-5-000-payment-a-year 163.  NHS. “We are Nurses. We are the NHS.” https://www.healthcareers.nhs.uk/we-are-the-nhs/nursing-careers 164.  NHS. “NHS Long Term Plan.” https://www.longtermplan.nhs.uk/; and NHS. “We are the NHS: People Plan for 2020/21 – action for us all.” https://www. england.nhs.uk/publication/we-are-the-nhs-people-plan-for-2020-21-action-for-us-all/ 80 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain shifts. Recognizing the limited nature of these invest- a UK work permit and a Nursing and Midwifery Council ments, the government has also turned to international registration. They must have a valid nursing qualifi- recruitment, a key part of the government’s commit- cation from their home country which is verified by ment to deliver 50,000 additional nurses by 2024. the Council. They must pass an English language test (IELTS or OET) and pass a two-part Council application process: a computer based multiple-choice examina- Migration tion (which nurses can access in their home countries) and a practical test which is held in the UK (the objec- In 2018, non-British nationals made up 12 percent of the tive structured clinical examination, or the OSCE). NHS workforce—6 percent EU nationals and 6 percent Employers often sponsor foreign nurses to come to the non-EU nationals.165 Of those doctors who were non-EU UK where they are able to work as health care assistants nationals, the greatest proportion came from Asia, until they pass their OSCE. Completing all of the above South Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Out of those from is difficult without the support of an agency, hence a Sub-Saharan Africa, the greatest proportion came from large overseas recruitment industry exists. Nigeria: 1,391 doctors. Similar trends can be seen within the nursing profession, with Asian nurses outstripping The UK has become a “net importer” of health care those from EU countries (Figure 24). The proportion of professionals. Every year, the NHS needs to recruit foreign-born workers varies throughout the country, 5,000 nurses from overseas.166 The OECD has found with the greatest proportions in London. that the UK imports more foreign-trained nurses than all other countries bar New Zealand, Switzer- There are two ways in which nurses can be recruited land, and Australia.167 As described above, Europe- from overseas: directly by Trusts, or through an inter- an-trained nurses have long been a source of talent mediary. To be offered a job, nurses must acquire both for the NHS. Yet Brexit, and the extension of language Figure 24. UK National Health Service workers of non-British origin 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2015-Sep 2016-Mar 2016-Sep 2017-Mar 2017-Sep 2018-Mar 2018-Sep 2019-Mar EU Asia Rest of the World Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) “International migration and the healthcare workforce.” Last updated August 15, 2019. https://www.ons.gov.uk/ peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/articles/internationalmigrationandthehealthcareworkforce/2019-08-15 Note: NHS HCHS nursing workforce in Trusts and CCGs by nationality, England, 2015-2019 165.  Office for National Statistics (ONS) “International migration and the healthcare workforce.” Last updated August 15, 2019. https://www.ons.gov.uk/ peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/articles/internationalmigrationandthehealthcareworkforce/2019-08-15 166.  The King’s Fund. 2021. “NHS workforce: our position.” Last updated February 26, 2021. https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/projects/positions/nhs-workforce 167.  Ben Gerschlick and Anita Charlesworth. 2019. “Health and social care workforce: Priorities for the new government.” The Health Foundation. November 27, 2019. https://www.health.org.uk/publications/long-reads/health-and-social-care-workforce Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 81 requirements, has led to a fall in the number of Euro- markets, in two ways. The first is exploring potential pean professionals seeking employment in the UK. markets with which to develop government-to-gov- As the King’s Fund notes, “the number of nurses and ernment agreements. Promoting mobility in line with midwives from Europe leaving the Nursing and Mid- the UK’s Code will require in-depth consultation with wifery Council’s register has risen from 1,981 in 2015/16 the Ministries of Health in these countries and for to 2,838 in 2019/20, while the number joining fell by 90 robust agreements to be signed which promises mutu- per cent over the same timeframe.”168 ally beneficial migration. Therefore, the NHS is having to look elsewhere. Over The second way is by augmenting the formal immigra- the same time period, there has been some increase in tion system. Due to Brexit, the UK has had to develop the number of nurses arriving from countries outside a new Points Based Immigration System which came the EU, especially India and the Philippines.169 The UK into force in January 2021. Within the context of this maintains its own Code of Practice for the international system, the UK has introduced a new Health and Care recruitment of health and social care personnel which Visa.174 To be eligible, an applicant must have a job offer precludes active recruitment of health care profes- from a relevant employer within the health and care sionals from developing countries, unless there exists sector, be undertaking a specific job role within the a government-to-government agreement to support visa rules (e.g. doctor, nurse, adult social care profes- recruitment activities.170 Under this Code, the UK has sional), be paid over £20,480, and speak English up to negotiated agreements which allow recruitment from level B1. This standard is likely to be one of the biggest the Philippines171 and all Indian states barring Andhra barriers to take-up as it is one of the highest English Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, and West Bengal language requirements in the world. The fees are sub- (those that receive ODA).172 stantially lower than normal immigration fees, there are no annual caps or quotas, no requirement for The updated Code, published in late February 2021, employers to advertise locally, and the ability to transi- reduces the number of countries which require such tion an initial five-year visa into permanent residence agreements, in line with new guidance from the WHO. and eventually citizenship. The UK no longer holds its own list of countries, but uses the WHO Support and Safeguards List of 47 coun- The Health and Care Visa is remarkably open. Given tries with the most pressing health workforce to popu- the high level of skill shortages within the NHS, and lation ratios, including Nigeria.173 Neither India nor the the government requirement to recruit more staff Philippines are on this list, reflecting their fast-growing within a short period of time, it is likely that employ- economies and therefore declining potential for nurse ers will seek to take advantage of this new openness. emigration. The DHSC and NHS are exploring other Many foreign-trained health professionals have been 168.  The King’s Fund. 2021. “NHS workforce: our position.” Last updated February 26, 2021. https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/projects/positions/nhs-workforce 169.  Ben Gerschlick and Anita Charlesworth. 2019. “Health and social care workforce: Priorities for the new government.” The Health Foundation. November 27, 2019. https://www.health.org.uk/publications/long-reads/health-and-social-care-workforce 170.  Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) 2021. “Code of practice for the international recruitment of health and social care personnel.” https:// www.gov.uk/government/publications/code-of-practice-for-the-international-recruitment-of-health-and-social-care-personnel 171.  NHS Employers. “Memorandum of Understanding between the Government of the Republic of the Philippines and the Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland in Healthcare Cooperation.” https://www.nhsemployers.org/~/media/Employers/Documents/Recruit/UK%20 Philippines%20MOU.pdf 172.  NHS Employers. 2021. “Developing countries – recruitment.” Published February 25, 2021. https://www.nhsemployers.org/your-workforce/recruit/ employer-led-recruitment/international-recruitment/uk-code-of-practice-for-international-recruitment/list-of-developing-countries 173.  World Health Organization (WHO) 2021. “Health Workforce Support and Safeguards List, 2020.” Published February 25, 2021. https://cdn.who.int/media/ docs/default-source/health-workforce/hwf-support-and-safeguards-list8jan.pdf?sfvrsn=1a16bc6f_5 174.  Gov.UK. “Health and Care Worker visa.” https://www.gov.uk/health-care-worker-visa/your-job 82 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain Box 11. Health Education England’s Global Learners Programme Health Education England (HEE) essentially over- Objective Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE) sees the training and development of the health which leads to full qualification. Successful train- workforce in England. It is a nondepartmental ees are allowed to bring their dependents, and all body sponsored by the Department of Health and can stay for the full length of the visa (three years) Social Care (DHSC). According to its website, HEE before transferring onto a Tier 2 (General) Visa and is responsible for ensuring that the NHS’ future eventual permanent residency and citizenship. workforce is “available in the right numbers and has the necessary skills, values and behaviours to The program operates through agreements that meet patients’ needs and deliver high quality care.”1 the UK has with several low- and middle-income countries including focusing on at-scale recruit- One way it does this is by working globally: support- ment from states in India and supporting labor ing NHS staff and organizations in their engagement ministries to ensure candidates reach a level at overseas, bringing overseas staff to work on place- which they are able meet the NMC requirements ments, and by aligning objectives through different (for example, through support with English lan- government departments including the Foreign, guage programs). A pilot called “Earn, Learn, Commonwealth, and Development Office. Return” was launched in 2017/18 yet the Tropi- cal Health Education Trust (THET) noted that few HEE’s Global Learners Programme offers the abil- nurses were likely to return home to their coun- ity for foreign-trained nurses to work in the NHS. tries of origin, and more clarity around the circular 2 Applicants must be registered nurses who have mobility nature of this scheme was required.3 As practiced for at least six months after qualify- a result, the program shifted to focusing on skills ing and have practiced within the last two years. development with no requirement to return. As They must have a minimum grade of B in reading, of the start of 2021, over 2,000 nurses are working speaking, and listening English and a C+ in writing. in NHS through the scheme, and approximately Nurses are able to apply for roles from their home 1,500 due to start during 2021/22. countries, pass an initial CBT test, and then apply for a UK visa. Once their visa is approved, and they The program is winding down over 2021/22 with have paid the requisite fee, they prepare to move HEE’s successor programs focusing on managed to the UK. Applicants are provided with flights to educational partnerships with low- and mid- the UK and three months of accommodation by dle-income countries. These small bilateral pro- their employer Trust, along with pastoral care and grams, such as the partnership with Saint Vincent integration support. Once they arrive, they start and the Grenadines, will focus on staff exchange work for their new employer before taking the and capacity building. Source: NHS Health Education England. “Global Learners Programme.” https://glp.hee.nhs.uk/; and interviews with Health Education England staff. 1.  NHS Health Education England. “Global engagement.” https://www.hee.nhs.uk/our-work/global-engagement 2.  NHS Health Education England. “Global Learners Programme.” https://glp.hee.nhs.uk/ 3.  Graeme Chisholm. 2019. “Forthcoming Tropical Health and Education Trust (THET) Report: Migration and Mobility.” Submitted to the 2nd Review of Relevance and Effectiveness of the WHO Global Code of Practice on the International Recruitment of Health Personnel. Draft Evidence Brief No. 3. June 14, 2019. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/health-workforce/eag2/2nd-review-of-code-relevance-and-effectiveness-evi- dence-brief-3-thet.pdf?sfvrsn=541bdee3_2 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 83 educated at British-designed institutions, which will Implementing a Global Skill have provided them with relatively transferable skills Partnership and a high level of interest. It also opens up opportu- nities for health care assistants to enter the UK and As described above, the UK is experiencing large and work within the system. If nurses are not able to pass persistent skill shortages, particularly within the their OSCE exam within eight months, they are able to nursing profession. Its NHS has long relied on migrant downgrade to the position of health care assistant and staff, and local Trusts (particularly those in urban and continue to work, rather than losing their immigra- peri-urban areas) have much experience with recruit- tion status (as was the case before). The visa is new, and ing and integrating foreign-trained workers. Yet the take-up is yet to be seen (due to COVID-19) and exten- countries of origin that the NHS has long relied upon, sively evaluated. including India and the Philippines, are rapidly devel- oping, creating concern that they may not be viable Yet there are three main barriers to relying on the sending markets in the long-term. As a result, the UK new Health and Care Visa to meet the overall short- is turning to new potential partner countries, partic- age of health workers in the UK. The first is the promo- ularly former British colonies in South East Asia and tion of the Health and Care Visa abroad—if countries Sub-Saharan Africa. Many of these countries are on (and individual potential migrants) are unaware of the WHO’s Support and Safeguards List, requiring the the new visa, it is unlikely that they will know to apply development of meaningful bilateral agreements that or to augment their education and skill investment promote development on both sides. decisions to take advantage of this new pathway. The second is the potential sending countries. If the UK As mentioned earlier, Nigeria suffers from a lack of wants to actively facilitate migration from countries qualified health workers, particularly nurses, and par- on the WHO Support and Safeguards List (including ticularly within the Northern areas of the country. It Nigeria), it will need to do so through a comprehen- also lacks substantial local and international invest- sive bilateral migration agreement. And the third is ment in the development of its training and health rising concerns that the UK should be “compensating” management infrastructure; a gap that targeted over- countries who are sending large numbers of health seas development assistance could fill. A health part- workers to the UK. For example, in late 2020, Con- nership between the UK and Nigeria could therefore servative MP Andrew Mitchell introduced the Doctors deliver benefits to both countries, increasing the stock and Nurses (Developing Countries) Bill.175 The Bill rec- of skilled health professionals and improving health ognizes the impact that increased labor migration can systems for all. have on the health workforce of countries of origin, and requires “the Secretary of State to report on the One way to do this is through the Global Skill Part- merits of a scheme for the United Kingdom to pay to nership model. A Global Skill Partnership is a bilat- train two doctors or nurses in developing countries for eral labor migration agreement between a country of each doctor or nurse recruited to the National Health origin and a country of destination. The country of Service from those countries.” The Global Skill Partner- origin agrees to train people in skills specifically and ship model mirrors this approach, while also overcom- immediately needed in both the country of origin and ing the other two barriers mentioned above. destination. Some of those trainees choose to stay and 175.  Doctors and Nurses (Developing Countries) Bill. Last updated January 14, 2021. https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/2804 84 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain Box 12. Tropical Health Education Trust (THET) The Tropical Health Education Trust (THET) was In 2019, THET submitted a brief to the 2nd review formed in 1988 as a UK charity. It trains and edu- of the WHO Code of Conduct in which it recom- cates health workers in Africa and Asia, by part- mended the UK establish a “unified health work- nering UK-based NHS Trusts, Royal Colleges, and force strategy at the national level which maximizes academic institutions with those in the region. the synergies between UK Official Development These partnerships deliver health worker training Assistance (ODA) funding and NHS investments in programs based on the needs of the partner insti- workforce allowing for the meaningful circulation tutions. Much of this is delivered by UK volunteers of health workers.” This brief was then translated and almost 100,000 have volunteered their time into a more comprehensive policy paper.2 In this over the past 30 years. policy paper, THET called on ODA to be used for health systems strengthening in low- and mid- THET has long advocated for greater investment by dle-income countries, and for the NHS to focus the UK in the training and education of overseas on foreign-trained health worker integration in health care professionals, as well as health systems the UK.3 In addition, this report also calls on the strengthening. Its flagship UK Partnerships for UK government to “scale-up publicly funded Skills Health Systems (UKPHS) program aimed to help Mobility Partnerships.” It reviews a number of low- and lower middle-income countries build different forms of skill partnerships, noting that stronger, more resilient health systems, with the circularity should be encouraged and built into ultimate aim of achieving universal health cover- the structure of the program. It also calls for any age and better servicing poor and vulnerable pop- partnerships to adhere to both THET’s “principles ulations.1 Unfortunately, this project was recently of partnership” and the WHO’s Twinning Partner- cut due to the reduction in UK aid spending. ships for Improvement. Source: NHS Health Education England. “Global Learners Programme.” https://glp.hee.nhs.uk/; and interviews with THET staff 1.  Tropical Health and Education Trust (THET) “UK Partnerships for Health Systems (UKPHS).” https://www.thet.org/ukphs/ 2.  Graeme Chisholm. 2019. “From Competition to Collaboration: Ethical leadership in an era of health worker mobility.” London: Tropical Health Education Trust (THET). https://www.thet.org/our-work/policy-work/from-competition-to-collaboration/ 3.  Graeme Chisholm. 2019. “Forthcoming Tropical Health and Education Trust (THET) Report: Migration and Mobility.” Submitted to the 2nd Review of Relevance and Effectiveness of the WHO Global Code of Practice on the International Recruitment of Health Personnel. Draft Evidence Brief No. 3. June 14, 2019. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/health-workforce/eag2/2nd-review-of-code-relevance-and-effectiveness-evi- dence-brief-3-thet.pdf?sfvrsn=541bdee3_2 increase human capital in the country of origin (the The following sections outline how such a Global Skill “home” track); others migrate to the country of desti- Partnership in nursing could be developed between nation (the “away” track). The country of destination the UK and Nigeria, including aspects of its design, provides technology and finance for the training and risks and mitigation measures, and potential funding receives migrants with the skills to contribute to the sources. The points listed below are not exhaustive. maximum extent and integrate quickly. Undoubtedly, further points will be raised through Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 85 the required extensive consultations between parties any mobility through formal government-to-govern- on both sides, and opportunities for testing new ment agreements. These agreements should be nego- approaches should be pursued. tiated directly by the Ministry of Health in Nigeria and DHSC in the UK and take into account the needs of the labor force on both sides. The WHO has developed a Design sample MoU which could be developed for this case.176 The document could borrow elements from the MoU Below we have outlined the various stages required between the UK and the Philippines as a model (see when designing a Global Skill Partnership, namely: Box 13) while including more specific language about increasing the supply of workers in Nigeria and facili- 1. Signing government-to-government agreement; tating health systems strengthening. 2. Consulting relevant stakeholders; 3. Signing on interested employers; Consulting relevant stakeholders 4. Developing curricula and training materials; 5. Designing contributions to broader systems; The second phase will be to ensure that all relevant 6. Facilitating mobility; and stakeholders have been consulted and had the oppor- 7. Evaluating the scheme (and potentially scaling). tunity to engage with the design of the Global Skill Part- nership—the relevant stakeholders are listed in Table 6. While not all of these stakeholders need to be for- Signing a government-to-government agreement mally engaged in the implementation of the project, it is crucial that all are regularly consulted through- The first stage required within the formulation of a out the length of the project and given the opportunity health care Global Skill Partnership is the signing of to provide feedback on required course corrections. an MoU or a BLA. Nigeria is on the WHO’s Support and This will ensure that all stakeholders provide a positive Safeguards List, and therefore is governed by both the rhetoric about the impact of the project which will be WHO and the UK’s Code of Conduct. As a result, the necessary given inevitable criticism from both within UK is barred from recruiting Nigerian health profes- and outside government. sionals through direct recruitment and must facilitate 176.  Ibadat S. Dhillon, Margaret E. Clark, and Robert H. Kapp. 2010. “Innovations in Cooperation: A Guidebook on Bilateral Agreements to Address Health Worker Migration.” Washington, DC: The Aspen Institute. https://www.who.int/workforcealliance/bilateral01.pdf?ua=1 86 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain Box 13. Memorandum of Understanding between the UK and the Philippines In the early 2000s, the UK signed two agreements In total, between 2002 and 2006, 175 nurses were with the Philippines. The first, a recruitment recruited within the government-to-government agreement, was signed in 2002 and was to be valid agreement while many thousands more migrated for three years. It detailed the organization of the outside this agreement. Makulec (2014) notes that recruitment process and included elements of eth- the limited significance of the MoU could be due to ical recruitment and protection. The second, MoU, the limited scope of the agreement as well as bureau- was signed in 2003 and ratified in 2004. This docu- cracy and costs linked to its implementation.2 ment was more encompassing and included three main aims: to facilitate the recruitment of Filipino Despite these setbacks, health worker migration health care professionals by the UK; to intensify between the Philippines and the UK is still active. bilateral exchanges of policy thinking with regard Between March 2016 and March 2019, 4,000 Filipi- to nursing workforce development and best prac- nos came to work in the NHS, becoming the sec- tice; and to involve professional staff and health ond largest migrant group after Indians.3 There are care managers with a view to developing mutual three unions that exist to support Filipino nurses recognition agreements.1 with their personal and professional development while providing a support and advocacy network: The MoU was never implemented, and the recruit- the (official) Philippine Nurses Association4 (which ment agreement was terminated in 2006. Ostensi- serves Filipino nurses worldwide) and two that bly, this was because the NHS had fewer vacancies serve UK-based nurses, the Filipino Nurses Associ- and as such a reduced demand for foreign workers. ation5 and Filipino UK Nurses Community.6 Source: Agnieszka Makulec. 2014. Philippines’ Bilateral Labour Arrangements on Health-care Professional Migration: In Search of Meaning. Report prepared for the EU-ILO project on “Decent Work Across Borders: A Pilot Project for Migrant Health Professionals and Skilled Workers”. Makati City: International Labour Organization (ILO). https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---asia/---ro-bangkok/---ilo-manila/documents/publication/ wcms_320609.pdf 1.  James Buchan, Susanna Baldwin, and Miranda Munro. 2008. “Migration of Health Workers: The UK Perspective to 2006.” OECD Health Working Papers No. 38. Paris: OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/228550573624 2.  Agnieszka Makulec. 2014. Philippines’ Bilateral Labour Arrangements on Health-care Professional Migration: In Search of Meaning. Report pre- pared for the EU-ILO project on “Decent Work Across Borders: A Pilot Project for Migrant Health Professionals and Skilled Workers”. Makati City: International Labour Organization (ILO). https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---asia/---ro-bangkok/---ilo-manila/documents/publication/ wcms_320609.pdf 3.  Rivkah Brown. 2020. “More Filipino Healthcare Workers Have Died of Covid-19 in the UK Than the Philippines. Why?” Novara Media. December 16, 2020. https://novaramedia.com/2020/12/16/more-filipino-healthcare-workers-have-died-of-covid-19-in-the-uk-than-the-philippines-why/ 4.  Philippine Nurses Association, Inc. http://www.pna-ph.org/ 5.  Filipino Nurses Association United Kingdom. https://fnauk.org.uk/ 6.  Filipino UK Nurses Community. https://www.filipinouknurse.com/new-about-us Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 87 Table 6. Required stakeholders for a UK-Nigeria nursing Global Skill Partnership Nigeria Role UK Role Government Federal Ministry of Sign MOU, manage Department of Health Sign MOU, manage Health, Nursing and project and Social Care (DHSC) project Midwifery Council (NMCN), Federal Ministry of Labor and Employment Nigerian in Diaspora Ensure protection of Foreign, Commonwealth, Provide ODA, ensure Commission “away” track nurses when and Development Office development impact of they move abroad and (FCDO) project liaise with all parties to harness the project for national development Nongovernmental Nursing World Nigeria Help with pre-selection NHS Professionals, NHS Help design pre- and bodies processes and orienta- Trusts, and other regis- post-departure training tion using their exist- tered recruitment agents (soft skills, language), ing platform; support support integration and Migrants Resource Center further training of health (MRC) with pre-departure workers once they arrive counselling and orienta- in the UK tion leveraging experi- ence working with nurses Nigerian Labor Congress Ensure that both local Tropical Health Design curriculum, bring and international labor Education Trust (THET) qualified NHS trainers standards are maintained to support trainers in for the protection of Nigeria, provide recom- trainees and employees mendations on origin under the project country health systems strengthening International World Health Support Federal Ministry World Health Ensure design is WHO bodies Organization (WHO), of health to ensure that Organization (WHO), Code compliant, share Nigeria project design is com- Global best practice pliant with WHO code for human resources recruitment. International Support Migrants International Support implementation Organization for Resource Center (MRC) Organization for of pre- and post-de- Migration (IOM), Nigeria with pre-departure coun- Migration (IOM), Global parture training, share selling and training best practice, (possibly) provide funding International Labour Support Nigerian Labour International Labour Provide oversight of Organization (ILO), Congress to ensure that Organization (ILO), Global labor standards, protect Nigeria labor standards are migrant rights maintained in accordance with ILO Conventions relating to the protection of migrants’ rights Professional Nursing and Midwifery Verify that nurses are Nursing and Midwifery Provide accreditation bodies Council of Nigeria accredited and provide Council (NMC) to curriculum, register (NMCN) Letters of Good Standing Nigerian nurses where necessary, sup- porting the integration and qualification recog- nition of returnees 88 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain Table 6. Required stakeholders for a UK-Nigeria nursing Global Skill Partnership cont. Nigeria Role UK Role Employers Federal Ministry of Recruit “home” track NHS Employers, NHS Recruit nurses in “away” Health, State Ministries trainees post training, England and Ireland, and track, facilitate OSCE of Health, National supporting the integra- NHS Trusts willing to completion, integration Primary Healthcare tion and qualification engage with the project and further skills training Development Agency, recognition of returnees Private Hospital owners Trade unions National Association Collaborate with relevant Royal College of Nursing Provide oversight of of Nigerian Nurses and bodies to ensure protec- (RCN), UNISON, and Unite labor standards, protect Midwives, Nigeria Labor tion of the labor rights of migrant rights, ensure Congress nurses selected for the program is not used as a project substitute for improve- ments in wages and working conditions Diaspora Nigerians in Diaspora Support integration of AFFORD, Nigerian Nurses Support integration of organizations Commission Nigerians in “away” track Charitable Association Nigerians in “away” track, through collaboration UK facilitate remittance and with UK diaspora groups, skill transfer support reintegration of GSP returnees Signing on interested employers African heritage, followed by Lambeth and Lewisham. Hence potential partners could be the three main NHS The third phase is to select employers to partner with Trusts in these boroughs: Guys and St Thomas’s NHS in both Nigeria and the UK. In the former, employers Foundation Trust, King’s College Hospital NHS Foun- of nurses and midwives are the ministries of health at dation Trust, and Lewisham and Greenwich NHS Trust both the federal and state levels, the National Primary (respectively). Health Care Development Agency (NPHCDA) and operators of private hospitals. The NPHCDA oversees Developing curricula and training materials the training of health workers at the community level and is rightly placed to know where shortages exist The fourth phase is to consult with the NHS Trusts and what specialties are most required to target those willing to engage with the project and the Ministry going through the “home” track. And while states with of Health in Nigeria to design the curriculum for the good existing training institutions could be useful, it training of Nigerian nurses. The most difficult part of will also make sense to work with states with a short- the design will be ensuring that the training course age of health workers so that trainees can be easily delivers in both the “home” and “away” track and absorbed. It would be practical to cultivate partner- conforms to the needs of the labor markets on both ships that produce trainees for the North of Nigeria, sides. Ideally, the program would deliver one curricu- as well as for rural areas. In the UK, it makes sense to lum that serves the needs of both countries. To create pick NHS Trusts which are suffering from significant this, it will be necessary to conduct in-depth reviews skill shortages but which are also situated in cities with of labor needs (both now and in the future) in both large African diaspora. As described above, London countries by conducting desk research and engag- is suffering from the most acute worker shortages. ing with senior federations, chambers of commerce, Within London, the borough of Southwark has the employment agencies, and investment agencies. Such greatest number of citizens identifying as having an skills needs should be developed in line with national Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 89 employment strategies and contribute to the eco- up” training within Nigeria to prepare them for the UK nomic development goals of both countries. These market. Concurrently, the UK could invest in broader analyses will also be useful far beyond the health health systems strengthening for those trainees prepar- sector, helping to identify skill needs across a range of ing to be nurses within the Nigerian market. sectors to support a range of potential partnerships. Whichever route is chosen, those on the “away” In conducting research and analysis for this report, track will also need language training. Nigeria is not we suggest that the “home” track focuses on produc- included on the list of “majority English-speaking ing nurses who are specialized in the shortage occu- countries” that the NHS holds, and therefore Nigeri- pations listed above. The “away” track should focus on ans need to pass the IELTS or OET and obtain B1 or 7.0 preparing Nigerians to become primary care nurses in and above. This training should be delivered by pro- the UK. While existing consultations and desk research fessional English language trainers, whether in person did not allow for the assessment of shortages in the cat- within Nigeria or remotely from the UK or other loca- egories of primary care nurses or community health tions. It must also include an integration component workers in Nigeria, it did show significant degree of which should provide information about entry into heterogeneity among the presence of training institu- the UK economy and society. This could be delivered tions by different regions. Design of both the “home” by IOM or other nongovernmental organizations such and “away” track should account for these regional as diaspora groups who, perhaps, facilitate the cul- variations in ensuring that those trained in the “home” tural integration of refugees and asylum-seekers now. track are equipped to fill shortages in lagging regions Both tracks will need to include some form of soft skills and those trained for the “away” track do not deplete training too, in transfer thinking, problem-solving, much needed human resources away from lagging and independent learning. regions, particularly in the North. Designing contributions to broader systems Given the requirement within the NMC for both theo- retical and practical training over a three-year period, The training and mobility aspects of the project should the “away” track will need to facilitate both. The the- be accompanied by ODA investments to improve the oretical training should be developed with the NMC health system of Nigeria as a whole. Nigeria, as a sig- to ensure it adheres to the curriculum requirements natory to the Abuja Declaration should be spending of NMC’s professional standards. The practical train- 15 percent of its annual budget on health; in 2018, it ing could be encouraged through regular periods of was just 3.89 percent.177 As a result, the international exchange or by delivering two years of theoretical train- community needs to support Nigeria to increase the ing in Nigeria and the last year of practical training in amount of money it spends on health infrastruc- the UK. Such an approach requires long-term embed- ture and outcomes, while also directly supporting the ded engagement and may not be possible within the improvement of both. There are two types of contri- timeframe dictated by the UK government’s campaign butions that should be assessed as part of the project. pledges. Therefore, in the first stage of the pilot, train- The first contribution should support the Ministry ing could be focused those who have already graduated of Health and its associated public health infrastruc- as nurses, midwives, or community health workers ture to better train, recruit, and retain workers. A key within Nigeria, providing them with one year of “top challenge here is working with the Ministry of Health 177.  World Bank. “Current health expenditure (% of GDP) – Nigeria.” https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.XPD.CHEX.GD.ZS?locations=NG 90 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain to support them in completing the WHO’s National Such interventions should reflect the Government of Health Workforce Accounts178 and a health workforce Nigeria’s priorities for the development of its health migration management strategy. Second, the Ministry system. A scoping exercise should identify where of Health needs to be supported to better spend and support should be provided, along with indicators of distribute the money it gets from the central treasury. success for such efforts—for example the completion of This money should go into building and expanding certain documents such as a health workforce strategy, educational facilities in areas with shortages, particu- or the expansion of essential services to a larger number larly for skills at either end of the spectrum: including of vulnerable people by a certain date. Strengthening increasing the stock of health care workers in lagging such health systems should have “important multiplier regions and those with advanced specialisms. Such effects towards fostering inclusive societies, including moves will lead to the increased production of health through creation of decent and productive jobs.”180 workers within shortage occupations. Facilitating mobility On recruitment and retention, there is much evidence that shows that the wages and working conditions The sixth phase is to design the mobility component of public health professionals need to be increased of the “away” track. Given the substantial shortages but that national budgets often do not allow for this. within the UK, and the additional benefits that will Instead, creative solutions could be found such as pro- flow through the BLA, a permanent pathway is rec- viding basic housing or a housing allowance, improving ommended with no active facilitation of return. Train- the quality of facilities, equipment, drugs, and medical ees should be brought in under the new Health and supplies, and ensuring facilities are located where Care Visa and granted a three-year visa which can be there is both demand but also access to good schools extended if both the employer and employee are sat- and other services. Such investments will also allow isfied. As a result of this visa category, no support for staff present within these facilities to add the value return and reintegration should be needed, though required (with ensuant benefits for patient outcomes). some financing should be set aside should participants These latter interventions are especially needed for choose to return for any reason. They should be able to rural areas. Okoroafor et al (2018) have found a large bring their dependents who should also have access to shortage of workers in rural areas due to lower salaries, work visas. IOM could support with pre- and post-de- housing/living conditions, children’s education, and parture training, while NMC should help facilitate reg- opportunities for career advancement. Addressing istration and post-arrival training. Those in the “away” these concerns should be done in line with the WHO’s track should also be connected to diaspora groups recommendations for rural retention, and bundles of such as AFFORD when they arrive, to help facilitate interventions should be tested and evaluated.179 their integration. Labor standards must be upheld 178.  The National Health Workforce Accounts is a system by which countries progressively improve the availability, quality, and use of data on health work- force through monitoring of a set of indicators to support achievement of UHC, SDGs, and other health objectives. See https://www.who.int/hrh/statistics/ nhwa/en/ 179.  Sunny Okoroafor, Daniel Salihu, Bello Innwa, Moses Ongom, Adam Akmat, Wondimagegnehu Alemu, Chukwuemeka Nwachukwu, and Joseph Bassey. 2018. “Retention of Frontline Health Workers in Remote and Rural Areas in Cross River State: A Discrete Choice Experiment.” Abuja: World Health Organization (WHO). 180.  World Health Organization (WHO). 2010. “Increasing access to health workers in remote and rural areas through improved retention: Global policy recommendations.” Geneva: World Health Organization (WHO). https://www.who.int/hrh/retention/guidelines/en/ Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 91 throughout; in particular governments should adhere enforcement can irregular migration be reduced. It is to the Nursing Personnel Convention 1977 (No 149) and therefore unlikely that a pilot of say, 100 nurses, will its recommendation 1977 (No 157) which outline key reduce irregular migration. That being said, the imple- minimum standards.181 mentation of a Global Skill Partnership could be used to test this link, by measuring the emigration inten- Evaluating the scheme (and potentially scaling) tions and actual emigration rates of both the control group and those on the “home” track. As described in Section 2, the potential benefits from Global Skill Partnerships are vast and must be evalu- Based on the evidence gathered, the main actors will ated. This evaluation should be conducted at the begin- need to decide whether and how to scale the pilot ning, middle, and end of the project, as well as some scheme. The Global Skill Partnership model is best time after to ascertain the long-term impacts of the implemented at a small scale in the early phases— program. It is not enough to facilitate the mobility of perhaps bringing over 100 nurses in the first cohort. In such workers and then assume, due to the design of this way, the assumptions inherent in the design can the training, that integration will be automatic. Nega- be tested and adapted. In the long run, given strong tive experiences are likely to create a negative feedback demand, there is potential to scale the project to thou- loop, deterring future participants in the scheme from sands of nurses per year, perhaps also expanding choosing the “away” track. Hence close attention should opportunities to countries such as Ghana and Kenya. be paid to the integration prospects of such trainees. Over time, the unit cost of the project should decrease. Close attention should be paid to the project, and mul- Such activities could be conducted in-house (perhaps tiple evaluations conducted, to ensure the project is by the Research and Evidence Division of the Foreign, still having the desired impact. If the needs of employ- Commonwealth, and Development Office (FCDO)) ers change or diminish, the project must be ready to or contracted externally. Crucially, such evaluations adapt to this new reality. should use control groups for both employees and employers to understand the impact of the program in all countries and for all sets of people. Reiterating Risks and Mitigation Measures the above, understanding the impact of the project to employers is vital to being able to prove the impor- Section 2 outlines a number of risks and potential mit- tance to other employers and other governments. igation measures that are inherent in all Global Skill Partnerships. In addition to this list, there are three It is likely that the FCDO will be required to test the specific risks which are likely to occur in the develop- impact of the approach on irregular migration from ment of such a partnership in health care between the Nigeria. As noted above, there is little evidence showing UK and Nigeria. the impact of opening new legal pathways on irreg- ular migration flows.182 The evidence that does exist Those trained within the “home” track are not able to shows that only by coupling legal pathways (at all skill find meaningful work. Many countries of origin have levels, for all types of migration) with robust border sought out such partnerships as they are overproducing 181.  International Labour Organization (ILO). 2020. “Guidelines for skills modules in bilateral labour migration agreements.” Geneva: International Labour Organization (ILO). https://www.ilo.org/global/topics/labour-migration/publications/WCMS_748723/lang--en/index.htm 182.  Rachel Cooper. 2019. “Legal Pathways’ Effects on Irregular Migration.” GSDRC Helpdesk Report. August 2019. https://gsdrc.org/publications/ legal-pathways-effects-on-irregular-migration/ 92 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain health workers that they are unable to recruit within small despite the large self-reported desire to move. the local public systems.183 Such surpluses should not Similarly, emigration from Nigeria remains extremely be taken advantage of by countries of destination. small. We can expect that not everyone wants to leave Instead, the UK should work with Nigeria to invest in their home country due to family and other com- health systems strengthening and improve the capacity mitments, cultural preferences, and a desire to con- of the health sector in Nigeria to absorb new recruits. tribute to the societies and economies of their own Two other elements should help mitigate this risk: one, country. These workers deserve the ability to do so, carefully design the curriculum so graduates within with increased skills and broader human capacity. Yet the “home” track have the precise skills needed by local the earning potential within the “away” track is likely institutions and two, involve local institutions early in to be a strong lure, and the project should consider the process so that they can ensure the skills and qual- ways in which to even out the incentive structures. For ifications of those in the “home” track meet the needs example, the project could include a bonded scheme of such employers. whereby those on the “away” track need to contribute to rural clinics for a year before they leave. Those trained for the “home” track could use the new Health and Care Visa route to access UK employers. As mentioned above, the design of the new Health and Funding Care Visa allows appropriately qualified workers to apply for roles in the NHS. If the Global Skill Partner- While Global Skill Partnerships can be financed in a ship facilitated a certain level of training for Nigerians number of ways, one of the guiding principles is that within the “home” track, they could use this training little to none of the financial burden should rest on to apply for roles in the UK, thereby undermining the the country of origin. This means that costs need to purpose of the “home” track. To overcome this, it may be borne by the country of destination itself, employ- be necessary to ensure that those who are trained in ers within the country of destination, and potentially the “home” track graduate with skills that fit the imme- also the trainees. Such a budget depends on the size diate needs of Nigeria. This is opposed to those who of the Global Skill Partnership. As discussed above, it go through the “away” track, and graduate with skills is generally recommended to start with a pilot, to test needed in the UK. For example, by training those in assumptions inherent within the model and address the “home” track in demonstrated nursing categories any misaligned incentive structures before scale. There with shortages, it is unlikely that those who go through is no firm guidance as to the size of such a pilot but an this training will be able to access the Health and Care initial intake of approximately 100 nurses undergoing Visa without further training. The other option would training would be a useful place to start. be to require the UK to only recruit nurses who have gone through the “away” track, as part of a condition The most obvious source of funding for a pilot program of the BLA. is the UK’s ODA budget. The UK’s Department for International Development (DFID) (now part of the No-one will be interested in choosing the “home” new Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development track, given the attractiveness of the UK market. The Office (FCDO)) has long supported health systems percentage of the world who migrate has, and remains, strengthening in low- and middle-income countries.184 183.  Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH. 2021. “Sustainable recruitment of nurses (Triple Win)” Last updated January 2021. https://www.giz.de/en/worldwide/41533.html 184.  Graeme Chisholm. 2019. “From Competition to Collaboration: Ethical leadership in an era of health worker mobility.” London: Tropical Health Education Trust (THET). https://www.thet.org/our-work/policy-work/from-competition-to-collaboration/ Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 93 The UK signed the IHP+ Global Compact, committing also ensuring such investments benefit the UK. Here, to improving the training and infrastructure for health the Global Skill Partnership is a clear example of workers. As described above, DFID has funded pro- how ODA could be used to support socio-economic grams run by organizations like THET to train health development in Nigeria (by increasing the number workers and support linkages between health insti- of health workers available and strengthening health tutions in the UK and abroad. Today, the FCDO is col- systems) and support employers within the UK (by laborating closely with DHSC, the Home Office, and plugging skills gaps and thereby improving the pro- other relevant departments to explore joint partner- ductivity and effectiveness of the NHS). ships. Hence there should be enough political support cross-government to invest in such partnerships. It is important that any Global Skill Partnership adds to and complements the aid budget, rather than dis- In late 2020, the UK government announced that placing other aid investments. As a result, it may be it would no longer be spending 0.7 percent of GNI necessary to “top up” the UK’s ODA spend with other on ODA, but instead reducing this contribution to sources of financing. This financing could come from 0.5 percent. This will undoubtedly make it difficult other UK” track could be required to pay for their own for UK departments to argue for ODA to be spent migration related costs (such as visa fees, airfare, and on a project such as a Global Skill Partnership. That initial set-up) which would then be recouped from being said, the UK’s aid strategy attempts to align their NHS salary. This could be something facilitated development resources to the UK’s national inter- by their new employers, the respective NHS Trusts. est—addressing the socio-economic development of Finally, there may be other sources of financing, such people in low- and middle-income countries while as private philanthropy, to explore. 94 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain Section 4: Case Study. A Global Skill Partnership in Construction between Nigeria and Germany Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 95 The demand for construction projects, particularly construction activity has increased in recent years, and within middle-income countries, is rapidly increasing. the sector is on track to grow by 35 percent by 2030.186 By 2030, the global construction market is forecast to be worth $17.5 trillion, up by $8 trillion from today. This The construction market is difficult to define. In 2003, growth is creating huge skill shortages, both within the Pearce Report provided two definitions, one nar- Nigeria and Germany, which is slowing the productivity rowly focusing on on-site construction activity, and one and competitiveness of construction firms. The follow- broader, “also encompassing the quarrying of construc- ing section outlines a Global Skill Partnership between tion materials, the manufacture of building materials, Nigeria and Germany within construction, including the sale of the final products and associated professional an overview of the training and migration landscape in services such as facilities management.”187 In this report, both countries, the specific design of such a partner- we are going to primarily concern ourselves with the ship, and risks and mitigation measures. It focuses on narrow definition, and the skills required by construc- building skills to satisfy labor market demands in both tion professionals on building sites. countries, notably general skills for the housing sector in Nigeria, and, in addition, supervisory and special- Within this narrow definition, three main forms of ized skills for the German market. construction arise: civil construction (e.g. roads, high- ways, bridges), industrial construction (e.g. oil and gas platforms, mining infrastructure), and residential and Developing a Construction commercial construction (e.g. single-family dwellings Migration Partnership and office buildings). All three of these forms are labor intensive and it has been noted that they tend to gen- In 2015, Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford erate more jobs (direct, indirect, and induced) than Economics found that by 2030, the global construc- other sectors.188 However they are also often closely tion market is forecast to be worth $17.5 trillion, up by linked to the economic performance of a country $8 trillion from today. Seventy percent of this growth overall which can lead to volatile swings in skill short- is expected to occur in just eight countries: China, the ages and demand as economies shift.189 United States, India, Indonesia, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Canada, and Nigeria.185 This is the first time that Worldwide, the construction industry employs approx- Nigeria has appeared within their rankings and show- imately 7 percent of the workforce. It is a major source cases the power of Lagos which is on track to become of employment in countries of origin, with around 70 Africa’s biggest city. Despite COVID-19, spending on million people working in construction in traditional aid recipient countries.190 Even in the EU-28 countries 185.  Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics. 2015. “Global construction 2030: A global forecast for the construction industry to 2030.” London: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics. https://www.ciob.org/industry/policy-research/resources/ global-construction-CIOB-executive-summary 186.  Morgan Condon. 2020. “Global construction sector to grow 35% to 2030 on urbanisation, softer pandemic impact.” Independent Commodity Intelligence Services. September 11, 2020. https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2020/09/11/10551509/ global-construction-sector-to-grow-35-to-2030-on-urbanisation-softer-pandemic-impact 187.  Andrew Foulkes and Les Ruddock. “Defining the scope of the construction sector.” https://www.irbnet.de/daten/iconda/CIB16522.pdf 188.  Andrés Mella and Matthew Savage. 2018. “Construction Sector Employment in Low Income Countries.” London: Infrastructure & Cities for Economic Development. http://icedfacility.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Report_Construction-Sector-Employment-in-LICs_Final.pdf 189.  Michelle Buckley, Adam Zendel, Jeff Biggar, Lia Fredericksen, and Jill Wells. 2016. “Migrant work and employment in the construction sector.” Geneva: International Labour Organization (ILO). http://engineersagainstpoverty.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/ILO-Migrant-Work-and-Employment-in-the- Construction-Sector.pdf 190.  Andrés Mella and Matthew Savage. 2018. “Construction Sector Employment in Low Income Countries.” London: Infrastructure & Cities for Economic Development. http://icedfacility.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Report_Construction-Sector-Employment-in-LICs_Final.pdf 96 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain it is estimated that 9.5 percent of the workforce operate governments.193 These characteristics may lead to a within construction activities. Most are employed lack of interest among local workers in countries of within a large number of quite small enterprises and destination in investing in construction training, while a relatively few large ones.191 Many roles within the increasing reliance on migrant workers. construction sector are low-paid, low-status, tempo- rary, informal, and suffer from poor working condi- tions (Figure 25).192 This is due to certain characteristics Construction Worker Migration of the construction industry as a whole, including its competitiveness, reliance on sub-contractors, Migrants, both temporary and permanent, have long small margins, and under-regulation by national been the cornerstone of construction markets. As Figure 25. Roles within the construction supply chain ADDED SERVICE PROVIDERS Drilling / Borehole Companies Plumbing Service Providers Electrical installation service Construction machinery and providers equipment suppliers CORE VALUE CHAIN Client Architects, designers and Building contractors Customers and end-users • Government planners • Private Sector Building designers / Subcontractors Draftsman Building material producers (cement block, door/window frames Suppliers / Traders Sand / metal / rubble doors and windows, Building material Building materials / etc. suppliers grill/gates, timber) importers Construction tool (steel, aluminium, tiles, bathroom fittings, glass, electrical accessories, roofing sheets) Source: International Labour Organization (ILO) 2004.“Good working conditions, good business? : An analysis of Zambia’s building construction market system.” Geneva: International Labour Organization (ILO). https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_emp/---emp_ent/---ifp_seed/documents/briefingnote/wcms_364076.pdf# Note: Red boxes indicate poor working conditions in value chain actors. 191.  Eurostat. 2015. “Construction statistics – NACE Rev.2.” Data from October 2015. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/pdfscache/10089.pdf 192.  Jill Wells. 2004. “Informality in the construction sector in developing countries.” Construction Management and Economics 25(1) 87-93. https://doi. org/10.1080/01446190600601339 193.  Roel Nieuwenkamp. 2016. “The Global Construction Sector Needs a Big Push on Corporate Responsibility.” Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). August 22, 2016. http://oecdinsights.org/2016/08/22/global-construction-sector-corporate-responsibility/ Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 97 outlined above, a variety of reasons including the These three reasons neatly highlight the reasons for labor- and skill-intensive nature of the industry and its the significant skill shortages seen in the construction necessary flexibility, means that relying on imported sectors in both countries of migrant origin and desti- labor is key to its success. The ILO has identified three nation. Countries of origin, such as Nigeria, are experi- reasons why construction employers may look abroad encing rapid growth in the number of building projects for workers: (i) the lack of a skilled workforce at home within their countries. As will be explored below, this (due to a lower absolute number of people and the is requiring an increase in the absolute number of skills they possess); (ii) the rapid growth in the number skilled workers available for employers within the of projects outstripping the ability of the education local economy. In addition, multinational companies system to keep pace; and (iii) the increase in the size are increasingly recognizing the investment potential and complexity of projects, which requires a specific of markets such as Nigeria and are therefore requir- skill set to execute.194 ing skilled professionals to facilitate their expansion. Box 14. Construction worker migration to the UK The construction sector in the UK employs 2.2 Between 2013 and 2017, the housing supply in the million people, 10 percent of whom are migrants UK grew by 74 percent and is expected to grow even (7 percent from EU27 and 3 percent from non-EU further. It is estimated that a further 168,500 jobs countries). Most migrant workers were attracted will be created by 2023. Yet with the UK’s exit from to the UK due to the availability of work, a lack the EU, many construction employers are becoming of opportunities in their country of origin, and concerned about the availability of labor.2 A survey more career development opportunities. Those of firms done in 2018 found that almost half felt it in traditional roles tend to come from Eastern would become harder to recruit skilled staff. There Europe, countries such as Poland, Romania, and have been calls to do more to dispel myths about the Ukraine, while those in professional roles and improve wages within the construction sector come from Western Europe, countries such as to ensure it is more attractive to UK citizens.3 In Italy, France, Spain, and Germany.1 the short-term, the sector will continue to rely on migrants and, perhaps, increasingly informality.4 Source: Merve Sancak. 2020. “Restrictions to immigration and work in the UK construction industry.” SPERI. February 19, 2020. http://speri.dept.shef. ac.uk/2020/02/19/restrictions-to-immigration-and-work-in-the-uk-construction-industry/ 1.  Adam Evans, Mark Winterbotham, Catherine O’Driscoll, Naomi Morrice, Anne Green, Catherine Harris, and David Owen. 2018. “Migration in the UK Construction and Built Environment Sector.” London: Construction Industry Training Board (CICTB). https://www.citb.co.uk/documents/ research/citb_migration_green_paper_july_2018.pdf 2.  Merve Sancak. 2020. “Restrictions to immigration and work in the UK construction industry.” SPERI. February 19, 2020. http://speri.dept.shef. ac.uk/2020/02/19/restrictions-to-immigration-and-work-in-the-uk-construction-industry/ 3.  Brian Green. 2015. “Analysis on Migration in the Construction Sector.” Chartered Institute of Building (CIOB). Last updated March 3, 2015. https:// www.ciob.org/industry/research/Analysis-Migration-Construction-Sector 4.  Merve Sancak. 2020. “Restrictions to immigration and work in the UK construction industry.” SPERI. February 19, 2020. http://speri.dept.shef. ac.uk/2020/02/19/restrictions-to-immigration-and-work-in-the-uk-construction-industry/ 194.  Michelle Buckley, Adam Zendel, Jeff Biggar, Lia Fredericksen, and Jill Wells. 2016. “Migrant work and employment in the construction sector.” Geneva: International Labour Organization (ILO). http://engineersagainstpoverty.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/ILO-Migrant-Work-and-Employment-in-the- Construction-Sector.pdf 98 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain Both of these markets therefore require a significant unique opportunity to build these skills.196 In spite of expansion of, and investment in, the formal training COVID-19, demand within the sector remains strong architecture. and is likely to rise. This is, therefore, an excellent time to explore skill partnerships within the sector to meet Countries of destination, on the other hand, fall within skills needs on both sides. reason one: an absolute lack of workers available to work within the sector. Partly, this can be attributed to the aging demographics highlighted earlier, but it Construction in Nigeria can also partly be attributed to the image of the sector within high-income countries as low-paid and low-skill, Nigeria needs to invest $3 trillion in the next 30 years— which reduces demand for training. This has led to sig- or around $100 billion every year between now and nificant skill shortages within the construction sector. 2045—to close existing deficits in infrastructure.197 The Forty percent of European construction employers country’s basic physical infrastructure deficit severely have reported experiencing bottlenecks in recruiting hampers prospects for economic growth and develop- workers, with the greatest demand within the “skilled” ment. For example, only 16 percent of Nigeria’s roads bracket of role.195 As a result, some European countries are paved, compared on average to half the roads in have attempted to attract labor from abroad. the world’s lower middle-income countries.198 Sim- ilarly, with a population growth rate of 2.6 percent a year, demand for affordable housing in Nigeria is Promoting a Genuine Development Benefit increasing, resulting in a housing gap of an estimated 17 million units. An annual production of 850,000 Despite the strong need for construction workers in housing units will be needed to close this gap over the both countries of origin and destination, there has next 20 years.199 been little discussion of the role that migration (and skill partnerships) could play in facilitating economic For Nigeria to bring up the level of investments in development. The importance of this debate has been infrastructure to the target of 70 percent of the GDP renewed by the expansion of low-carbon technologies by 2043, the construction sector will have to play a key and the push towards “Green New Deal” style infra- role.200 Despite Nigeria’s worst economic recession in structure. Such investments will require new, skilled, four decades in 2020, the construction sector contrib- workers in all countries and migration provides a uted to 8.4 percent of Nigeria’s nominal GDP in the 195.  Cedefop. 2015. “Skill shortages and gaps in European enterprises: striking a balance between vocational education and training and the labour market.” Cedefop reference series; No 102. Luxembourg: Publications Office. http://dx.doi.org/10.2801/042499 196.  Ipek Genscu, Avery Parsons Grayson, and Nathaniel Mason with Marta Foresti. 2020. “Migration and skills for the low-carbon tran- sition.” Overseas Development Institute (ODI) Working paper 584. London: Overseas Development Institute (ODI). https://www.odi.org/ publications/17199-migration-and-skills-low-carbon-transition 197.  International Finance Corporation (IFC). 2020. “Creating Markets in Nigeria. Crowding in the Private Sector: Nigeria’s Path to Faster Job Creation and Structural Transformation.” Washington, DC: World Bank. https://www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/connect/673c0e3f-3e77-4ddc-923b-903c5db6af15/CPSD-Nigeria. pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CVID=nkzEpgy 198.  Julia Bello-Schünemann and Alex Porter. 2017. “Building the future: Infrastructure in Nigeria until 2040.” Institute for Security Studies (ISS) West Africa Report 21, November 2017. Pretoria: Institute for Security Studies (ISS). https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/war-21.pdf 199.  International Finance Corporation (IFC). 2020. “Creating Markets in Nigeria. Crowding in the Private Sector: Nigeria’s Path to Faster Job Creation and Structural Transformation.” Washington, DC: World Bank. https://www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/connect/673c0e3f-3e77-4ddc-923b-903c5db6af15/CPSD-Nigeria. pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CVID=nkzEpgy 200.  Oxford Business Group. 2019. “Nigerian government to align national development and infrastructure.” Chapter in “The Report: Nigeria 2019.” Oxford: Oxford Business Group. https://oxfordbusinessgroup.com/overview/strengthening-links-government-plans-aim-align-national-economic-develop- ment-and-infrastructure Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 99 fourth quarter, and 2 percentage points higher than it of open vacancies among the six sectors analyzed with did a year ago.201 32 percent open vacancies at the time of the survey. The housing sector was also the sector identified with Nigeria’s Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP), the most hard-to-fill vacancies identified by the busi- 2017-2020, earmarks the construction sector as one of ness establishments with 20 percent of the vacancies the sectors with the potential to generate employment identified as hard-to-fill.203 Citing Nigeria’s Industrial for the growing number of youths in the country. The Revolution Plan (2014), the report mentions “Nigeria construction sector was also listed as one of the six pri- has a shortfall of requisite skills in local artisans ority sectors to ensure sustainable economic growth involved within the Nigerian building industry. Large and development in Nigeria, with a specific policy housing projects today depend on migrant construc- objective to “invest in technical and vocational training tion workers from other West African countries to fill for craftsmen (electricians, masons, carpenters, etc.) the skills gap.” needed by the local industry”.202 Within the construc- tion sector, the EGRP also strives to construct 2,700 affordable housing units in the short term to create Construction Management and Training 105,000 direct jobs a year. The lead regulator for Nigeria’s construction industry is the Federal Ministry of Works and Housing (FMWH). The Workforce FMWH oversees civil engineering projects and housing, with the Federal Housing Authority (FHA) co-manag- According to the 2018-19 NLSS, around 3 percent of ing the housing sector. The FMWH also oversees the the active working-age population between the ages of Federal Road Maintenance Agency (FERMA) and the 15 and 64 in Nigeria were employed in the construc- sector councils including the Council for the Regula- tion sector. Thirty-nine percent of those working in tion of Engineering in Nigeria (COREN), the Survey- the construction sector were employed in urban areas ors Registration Council of Nigeria (SRCN), and the whereas 61 percent were employed in rural areas. Council of Registered Builders of Nigeria (CORBON). Less than 16 percent of Nigerians working in the con- struction sector have completed tertiary education, 57 CORBON leads the industry’s skills training ecosystem percent have completed secondary education, and 19 and has the mandate of Sector Skills Council under percent have completed primary education. Eighty- the National Skills Qualification Framework (NSQF). four percent of those working in the construction The National Occupational Standards (NOS) has been sector were between the ages of 25 and 64 and an over- established and validated for seven construction whelming 96 percent were men. trades: Carpentry and Joinery, Electrical Installation, Masonry Work, Painting and Decoration, Plumbing In a 2016 Skills Gap Assessment of 1,707 business estab- in Construction, Tiling, and Decorative Stonework. lishments within six priority sectors conducted by the The NOS is approved by the National Board for Tech- government, housing was enlisted as one of the prior- nical Education (NBTE) as a prerequisite for curricu- ity sectors. The housing sector had the highest number lum development and content delivery, assessment, 201.  Nigerian National Bureau of Statistics. https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 202.  Nigerian Ministry of Budget and National Planning. 2017. “Economic Recovery & Growth Plan, 2017-2020.” Abuja: Nigerian Ministry of Budget and National Planning. https://nigeriaembassygermany.org/mosaic/_M_userfiles/Economic-Recovery-Growth-Plan-2017-2020.pdf 203.  United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO). 2017. “Skills Gap Assessment in Six Priority Sectors of Nigeria Economy.” October 2016. Vienna: UNIDO. https://open.unido.org/api/documents/6055563/download/Skills%20Gap%20Assessment%20in%20Nigeria%20-%20Final%20Report.pdf 100 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain certification and licensing, as well as for remunera- Training is provided under formal and informal set- tions of construction artisans.204 tings. Universities, polytechnics, and other academic institutions provide formal training. Aimed at address- There are two major unions in the industry. The Con- ing the manpower needs in the industry, in 2014 the struction and Civil Engineering Senior Staff Associ- federal government established the National Insti- ation (CCESSA) which is affiliated to the Trade Union tute of Construction Technology and Management Congress (TUC) works to protect the labor interests (NICTM) in Uromi in Edo State to offer Certificate of senior staff in the industry.205 The National Union courses in areas such as Carpentry and Joinery, Con- of Civil Engineering, Construction, Furniture and creting and Masonry, Electrical Installation Works, Wood Workers (NUSECFWW) represents the interest of Plumbing and Pipe Fitting, POP Works in Building, workers in the sector generally and is affiliated to the Welding and Fabrication, among others; and Diploma Nigerian Labor Congress (NLC).206 courses in Architectural Technology, Building Tech- nology, Electrical & Electronics Engineering Technol- The construction industry suffers from an inexhaus- ogy, Quantity Surveying, among others.209 In 2019, the tive shortage of equipment operators, glaziers, insu- N-Power Build program commenced skills training, lating specialist, asphalt/tar sprayers, fabricators, targeting 75,000 unemployed youth (18-35 years). The scaffolding specialists, suspended ceiling specialists, 3-month training focuses on Furniture Making and plumbers, electricians, roofers, tilers, safety officers, Design, Electrical Maintenance and Repairs, Building masons, bricklayers, carpenters, and painters.207 This and Construction services, Plumbing, and Welding.210 shortage stems from the limited availability of an ade- The implementation team collaborates with CORBON quately trained, skilled, and productive workforce. and has impacted 30,000 participants.211 This is caused by lack of training and retraining, aging workforce, and an industry that no longer appeals to Informal training is provided by training platforms young and potentially qualified manpower. There is such as Builders Hub Vocational Academy (BHVA), also poor funding and ineffective TVET training, and which provides in-person technical training on Plumb- a poor image of construction labor as work done by ing, Electrical Works, Painting, Carpentry, Interior less intelligent people. In addition, the development Design, and Masonry.212 Many artisans also learn from and introduction of new technologies and materials “masters” who agree to teach them on the job while the requiring higher skills means that many construction trainees work without pay. Such trainees eventually workers need upskilling.208 often become formally employed within the industry. 204.  Council of Registered Builders of Nigeria (CORBON). http://corbon.gov.ng/ 205.  Construction & Civil Engineering Senior Staff Association (CCESSA). http://www.ccessa.org.ng/ccessa 206.  National Union of Civil Engineering, Construction, Furniture & Wood Workers (NUSECFWW). https://www.facebook.com/ National-union-of-civil-engineering-construction-furniture-woodworkers-160751081092357/ 207.  Mohammed Isah Leje, Bandi Shamsulhadi, and Abdullah Fadhli. 2019. “Supply Of Skilled Workers Towards Performance Of Construction Organisations In Nigeria.” International Journal of Scientific & Technology Research 8(12): 609-616. http://www.ijstr.org/final-print/dec2019/Supply-Of-Skilled-Workers-Towards- Performance-Of-Construction-Organisations-In-Nigeria.pdf; Fortune Aigbe, Ochei Ailemen Ikpefan, and C.C. Egolum. 2019. “Technical and Skilled Manpower as Prerequisite for Enhanced Productivity in the Construction Industry.” International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology 10(3): 726-742. March 2019. http://www. iaeme.com/MasterAdmin/UploadFolder/IJCIET_10_03_070-2/IJCIET_10_03_070-2.pdf; and E.M. Awe, P. Stephenson, and A. Griffith. 2010. “Impact of Vocational Training on Skilled Labour shortage within the Nigerian Construction Sector.” https://www.irbnet.de/daten/iconda/CIB_DC24215.pdf 208.  Ade Abdulquadri Bilau, Musibau Akintunde Ajagbe, and Habila H. Kigbu. 2015. “Review of Shortage of Skilled Craftsmen in Small and Medium Construction Firms in Nigeria.” Journal of Environment and Earth Science 5(15): 98-110. https://core.ac.uk/reader/32226550 209.  National Institute of Construction Technology and Management (NICTM). http://www.nict.edu.ng/ 210.  N-Power Build. https://www.npower.gov.ng/n-build.html 211.  Council of Registered Builders of Nigeria (CORBON). “N-Power Build Programme.” http://corbon.gov.ng/npower-build 212.  Builders Hub Vocational Academy (BHVA). https://bhubcollege.com/ Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 101 The private sector represented by the Federation of Box 15. The Nigerian College of Construction Industry (FOCI) recently established a Practical Skills and Start-Up Centre Skills Academy, commencing with the enrolment of masonry trainees in Abuja in Q1 2021, and plans to In 2018, the High-Level EU-Africa Forum expand to Lagos and Port Harcourt in July 2021.213 FOCI prompted the establishment of the new Nige- is the umbrella association of over 125 local construc- rian College of Practical Skills and Start-Up tion firms with a combined asset of more than $10 Centre, an initiative aiming to deliver training billion as of 2013.214 In addition, Lafarge Africa PLC in and education while providing start-up capi- partnership with Industrial Training Fund (ITF) and tal and practical assistance to young entrepre- the Nigeria Employers Consultative Association (NECA) neurs. The aim is to develop and implement a recently commenced a three-year technical skills self-sustaining dual educational concept based development training program.215 The program is tar- on European standards and certifications, and geted at youth, especially those of the company’s host create 1,600 new jobs and 500-800 new busi- communities, between the ages of 18 and 24 years, who nesses in Nigeria while training 1,000 Nigerian must have obtained at least 3 credit passes in Physics, youth (including 300 women) per year. The Mathematics and any other subject in the West African initiative is led by the International Center Senior School Certificate Examination (WASSCE) or for Migration Policy Development (ICMPD) the National Examination Council (NECO) exam- and supported by an array of private sector inations and at least a pass in English language. The partners and government donors. Since it was program aims to train youth to become self-employed founded, the initiative has benefitted 200 stu- or employable in vocational areas including Mechani- dents in an array of skills including construc- cal Maintenance, Electrical Maintenance, Instrumen- tion and ICT. A new physical compound is due tation and Automation, Automobile Maintenance, and to open in 2021, and companies from Austria Welding and Fabrication; as well as to promote a pub- and Germany are expected to make use of the lic-private sector model in vocational and technical facility to train new workers. skills training.216 Source: International Center for Migration Policy Development (ICMPD). 2018. “Initiative Launch. “The College of Practical Skills and Start-up Centre.” Press Release. December 18, 2018. https:// www.icmpd.org/news-centre/news-detail/press-release-initia- Migration tive-launch-the-college-of-practical-skills-and-start-up-centre/ Unfortunately, there is no good data regarding the presence of Nigerian construction professionals For example, in the US, immigrant workers comprise abroad. Certainly, key countries of destination for nearly 25 percent of the overall construction work- Nigerian migrants see large numbers of foreign per- force and account for an average of 30 percent in sonnel working within their construction sectors. the construction trades.217 There are over 10 million 213.  Nigerian Engineer. 2020. “FOCI Unveils Academy to Tackle Unemployment.” Posted December 9, 2020. http://www.nigerianengineer.com/2020/12/ foci-unveils-academy-to-tackle-unemployment 214.  Oxford Business Group. 2019. “Increased demand and investment have driven rapid expansion in Nigeria’s construc- tion sector.” Chapter in “The Report: Nigeria 2019.” Oxford: Oxford Business Group. https://oxfordbusinessgroup.com/overview/ increased-demand-and-investment-have-driven-rapid-expansion-nigerias-construction-sector 215.  Lafarge Africa PLC. 2021. Advert for A 3-Year Technical Skills Development Training Programme.” https://www.lafarge.com.ng/sites/nigeria/files/atoms/ files/advert-for-apprenticeship-program-january-2021_1.pdf 216.  The training takes place at Lafarge Africa Training Centres located in Ashaka (Delta State), Ewekoro (Ogun State) and Mfamosing (Cross River State). 217.  Kim Slowey. 2018. “Percentage of immigrant construction workers on the rise.” Construction Dive. January 26, 2018. https://www.constructiondive.com/ news/percentage-of-immigrant-construction-workers-on-the-rise/515657/ 102 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain construction workers from South Asia in the Gulf to COVID-19 it was estimated that the residential con- countries, which have a large share of nonnationals.218 struction industry was to reach €499.4 billion by 2024, The relevant skills gap highlighted in the construction a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6 percent, sector as well as the growing demand for construction and commercial infrastructure to record 7.3 percent workers in destination countries, makes the sector growth.220 COVID-19 has hit the industry, with suc- suitable for implementing labor mobility schemes that cessive market contractions throughout 2020.221 Yet cater to the shortages in Nigeria and abroad. housing activity continued to grow regardless (Figure 26), and some foresee a robust recovery.222 Construction in Germany The Workforce Germany is Europe’s leading construction market and home to the continent’s largest building stock. Popu- In 2016, the European Construction Sector Observa- lation growth, demographic changes, and a favorable tory noted that the number of people employed in the economic environment are all driving high demand German construction sector has grown rapidly with for residential and commercial buildings, with a recent the total figure now around 2.4 million people.223 The boom in green infrastructure and investment.219 Prior majority of people work in Western Germany despite Figure 26. The growth of the construction sector in Germany EUR billions 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020* 2021* Residential Commercial Public Source: GTAI. “Building Industry Landscape.” https://www.gtai.de/gtai-en/invest/industries/building-industry#77214 Note: Construction volume in Germany. Total by type, in EUR billion (in prices at the time). 2020 and 2021 are projected. 218.  In the United Arab Emirates (UAE), 88 percent of residents are non-citizens, and foreign nationals represent 75 percent and 74 percent of Qatar’s and Kuwait’s resident populations, respectively. 219.  GTAI. “Building Industry Landscape.” https://www.gtai.de/gtai-en/invest/industries/building-industry#77214 220.  Research and Markets. 2020. “German Construction Industry Worth ~$500 Billion by 2024 (COVID-19 Revised) - Market Insights, Trends and Opportunity Assessment.” Posted September 2, 2020. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/09/02/2087588/0/en/German-Construction- Industry-Worth-500-Billion-by-2024-COVID-19-Revised-Market-Insights-Trends-and-Opportunity-Assessment.html 221.  Global Construction Review (GCR). 2020. “German construction sector suffers the effects of long Covid.” November 9, 2020. https://www.globalconstruc- tionreview.com/news/german-construction-sector-suffers-effects-long-co/ 222.  Global Data. 2020. “Construction is fastest growing sector in Germany.” June 2, 2020. https://www.globaldata.com/ construction-is-fastest-growing-sector-in-germany/ 223.  European Commission. 2018. “European Construction Sector Observatory: Country profile Germany.” Ref. Ares(2018)3474102 - 29/06/2018. https:// ec.europa.eu/docsroom/documents/23744/attachments/1/translations/en/renditions/pdf Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 103 attempts to foster economic development in the within companies of all sizes, and within a wide variety Eastern regions.224 At this same time, between 2011 and of roles, but are most pronounced among those who 2015, the number of job vacancies increased by 18.8 have completed vocational training. This lack of skilled percent and the number of people undertaking train- labor not only threatens the productivity of the con- ing in the sector decreased by one percent.225 This, struction sector but also its green transition.228 coupled with the aging nature of staff in the sector, is leaving unfilled vacancies. Bruncker Juricic et al (2021) Tackling these shortages takes three broad approaches: estimated that there were 147,208 job vacancies in the (1) Make the construction industry more attractive to sector in Q4 of 2019, and this has only dropped slightly young people—for example, the regional construc- to 116,882 during the pandemic (Q2 2020), the highest tion federations of BadenWürttemberg and Nordrhe- rate in the EU.226 A survey by Bauberufe in July 2020 in-Westfalen have launched a common campaign to found that there were only 39 suitably qualified people improve the negative image of the industry; (2) focus for every 100 registered jobs.227 These vacancies exist on training activities within the industry under the banner of the registered association “Deutschland baut! e.V”;229 and (3) loosen immigration restrictions to Figure 27. Bottleneck vacancies attract EU and third country construction workers. Unemployed per 100 registered vacancies 100 Construction Management and Training 80 The German education system is structured differently 60 from Anglo-Saxon or Scandinavian models. A strict dis- 40 tinction exists between vocational education and uni- versity courses. Students need to choose their route at 20 age 10 and it can be difficult to switch between the two routes. Vocational education policy is coordinated at 0 Building electrics - Supervision - Construction the federal level with a framework curricula which is set specialist building planning and for 328 occupations.230 These curricula are developed construction - supervision - specialist expert in collaboration with employers, employees, educa- Jul-19 Jul-20 tors, and union representatives. It ensures that every- one going through a construction training program is learning the same skills at roughly the same time. Source: KOFA. 2020. “KOFA-Kompakt: Bauberufe im Juli 2020 – Corona-Spezial.” Berlin: KOFA. https://www.kofa.de/service/publikationen/detailseite/news/ kofa-kompakt-bauberufe-im-juli-2020-corona-spezial Note: KOFA calculations based on data from the Federal Employment Agency, 2020. 224.  Statistisches Bundesamt. 2020. “In construction industry, number of persons in employment residing in Germany down 300,000 on 1991.” Press release #061. September 25, 2020. https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/09/PE20_N061_44.html 225.  European Commission. 2018. “European Construction Sector Observatory: Country profile Germany.” Ref. Ares(2018)3474102 - 29/06/2018. https:// ec.europa.eu/docsroom/documents/23744/attachments/1/translations/en/renditions/pdf 226.  Belinda Brucker Juricic, Mario Galic, and Sasa Marenjak. 2021. “Review of the Construction Labour Demand and Shortages in the EU.” Buildings 11(17). https://www.mdpi.com/2075-5309/11/1/17 227.  KOFA. 2020. “KOFA-Kompakt: Bauberufe im Juli 2020 – Corona-Spezial.” Berlin: KOFA. https://www.kofa.de/service/publikationen/detailseite/news/ kofa-kompakt-bauberufe-im-juli-2020-corona-spezial 228.  Claire Stam. 2019. “Skilled workers shortage could stall Germany’s progress on climate targets.” Euractiv. December 10, 2019. https://www.euractiv.com/ section/energy/news/skilled-workers-shortage-could-stall-germanys-progress-on-climate-targets/ 229.  European Commssion. “European Construction Sector Observatory.” https://ec.europa.eu/growth/sectors/construction/observatory_en 230.  Bundesinstitut für Berufsbildung. 2015. “Bekanntmachung des Verzeichnisses der anerkannten Ausbildungsberufe und des Verzeichnisses der zuständi- gen Stellen.” Published June 19, 2015. https://www.bibb.de/dokumente/pdf/Verzeichnis_anerk_AB_2015.pdf 104 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain The majority of vocational education takes place in a looks after workers within the construction, engineer- “dual system” consisting of “work-based learning in the ing, agriculture, and environment sectors. form of apprenticeships within a company supported by school-based learning in vocational schools run by the federal states.”231 This system offers training in three Migration basic areas of construction: civil engineering (under- ground), civil engineering (above ground), and inte- Germany has been recruiting foreign workers for its riors and finishings.232 Most qualifications within this construction industry since the mid-1950s.237 In 2019, field take three years, with the learning becoming more 15.4 percent of construction employees were foreigners, and more work-based. Companies enter into appren- higher than the occupation average of 9.3 percent.238 ticeship contracts with their employees and pay them The majority are qualified in civil engineering and an allowance while supporting in-company training.233 come from Eastern Europe and other European coun- Exams are held in the middle and at the end of the tries. Yet, in keeping with broader trends, Germany is apprenticeship, to ensure on-the-job learning. About being forced to look elsewhere. The German Research two-thirds of apprentices are hired by the company in Institute of the Federal Employment Agency (IAB) and which they worked during their training.234 Coburg University have estimated that there will need to be 146,000 more third country migrants coming to Once someone finishes their qualification, they are Germany every year to meet demand, and the Associa- given a license to operate by their local Chamber of tion of German Chambers of Commerce and Industry Crafts. In Germany, these Chambers of Crafts, along (DIHK) thinks this figure is conservative.239 with the Chambers of Industry and Commerce (IHKs), act as industry lobby groups while also organizing Despite this need, it was difficult for third country vocational training and providing legal support to workers with mid-skill qualifications to access the companies in the sector.235 Each area of Germany has German market. As a result, in March 2020, Germany its own Chamber of Crafts and they each make deci- enacted a new Skilled Immigration Act.240 The new law sions on licensing fairly independently. Trade unions allows anyone with a vocational qualification, in any in Germany are organized under the umbrella of the subject, to move to Germany and obtain a work visa German Trade Union Confederation (DGB). Of the as long as they satisfy two conditions: (1) The qualifi- eight affiliates, IG Bauen-Agrar-Umwelt (IG BAU)236, cation must be recognized in Germany, and (2) they 231.  Qualifications Wales. 2018. “An international comparison study: A supplementary report to accompany the Sector Review of Qualifications and the Qualifications System in Construction and the Built Environment.“ Newport: Qualifications Wales. https://www.qualificationswales.org/media/3149/construc- tion-international-comparison.pdf 232.  SusBuild. “Dual vocational training in Germany.” https://www.susbuild.eu/good-practice/dual-vocational-training-in-germany-en/ 233.  Apprenticeship Toolbox. “Funding Arrangements in Germany.” https://www.apprenticeship-toolbox.eu/financing/ funding-arrangements/47-funding-arrangements-in-germany 234.  SusBuild. “Dual vocational training in Germany.” https://www.susbuild.eu/good-practice/dual-vocational-training-in-germany-en/ 235.  GTAI. “Chambers of Industry and Commerce (IHKs) and Chambers of Crafts.” https://www.gtai.de/gtai-en/invest/investment-guide/ establishing-a-company/chambers-of-industry-and-commerce-ihks-and-chambers-of-crafts-73408 236.  Industriegewerkschaft Bauen-Agrar-Umwelt. https://igbau.de/ 237.  Andreas Goldberg, Dora Mourinho, and Ursula Kulke. 1995. “Labour market discrimination against foreign workers in Germany.” International Migration Papers 7. Geneva: International Labour Organization (ILO). https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_protect/---protrav/---migrant/docu- ments/publication/wcms_201039.pdf 238.  KOFA. 2020. “KOFA-Kompakt: Bauberufe im Juli 2020 – Corona-Spezial.” Berlin: KOFA. https://www.kofa.de/service/publikationen/detailseite/news/ kofa-kompakt-bauberufe-im-juli-2020-corona-spezial 239.  Florence Schulz. 2019. “Germany needs a quarter of a million migrant workers a year.” Euractiv. February 22, 2019. https://www.euractiv.com/section/ economy-jobs/news/germany-needs-a-quarter-of-a-million-migrant-workers-a-year/ 240.  Make It In Germany. 2020. “Information on the Skilled Immigration Act.” https://www.make-it-in-germany.com/en/visa/skilled-immigration-act Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 105 must have a job offer. While a good knowledge of the international recruitment. There is no cap on the German language (e.g. up to level B1) is not formally number of workers who can come in through the required to obtain a visa, in practice, employers still law, nor is there bias in terms of specific countries expect this to be proven before a job offer is granted. of origin. And most important, there are no restric- A recognition notice must be issued by the German tions on the type of vocational skills required, though Chamber of Crafts, recognizing the foreign qualifica- they have deemed some professions as lacking in tion’s equivalence. In addition, the law allows people workers (including construction).242 However, there from third countries to come to Germany for training remains issues with its implementation in practice. provided they have been offered a training place in a The current dual system of training is rigid, which German company, can speak German up to level B1, makes recognition of foreign professional qualifica- and can financially support themselves for the dura- tions difficult. Qualifications obtained in countries of tion of their stay.241 On the latter, a person would need origin need to be from recognized and pre-approved around €950 per month, which can be out of range for schools. Different rules apply for employment and some trainees within the construction sector. traineeships, making it difficult for employers to nav- igate. It is not clear how easy it will be to facilitate There are many pros and cons inherent in the new visas, and the system has not yet been tested (having law. It has removed the need to conduct labor market been enacted just before the COVID-19 pandemic).243 tests for hiring foreign workers (though it still exists And finally it requires German language skills at a for trainees), as it is assumed any company hiring high level, which may be difficult to accomplish for through the new law has enough demand to warrant people from countries like Nigeria. Box 16. Creating perspectives for youth in Kosovo Since 2017, Germany has been conducting youth One aspect of this project was implementing a training and employment schemes in Kosovo, a Global Skill Partnership in the construction sector. country with a youth unemployment rate of over It was conducted in cooperation with the German 50 percent. The project ‘Creating perspective for Information Centre for Migration, Training and youth in Kosovo’, aimed to bridge the gap between Career (DIMAK), the Ministry of Labour and Social job seeker skills and labor market demands. It also Welfare, the Munich Chamber of Crafts, and the aimed to improve the quality of vocational training private sector. It aimed to split the three-year con- in Kosovo, while strengthening the systems and struction qualification, by providing a two-year capacity of the Ministry of Education, Science and “expert certificate” to trainees in Kosovo within Technology (MEST) and Ministry of Labour and a private training school in Pristina. Half would Social Welfare (MLSW) and their agencies. stay in Kosovo and the other half would move to 241.  Michaelle Nintcheu and Alexandra Köbler. 2021. “How can I recruit a qualified professional from abroad? What employers need to know.” Berlin: Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy. https://www.make-it-in-germany.com/fileadmin/MiiG_Unternehmen/PDFs/Unternehmen/Unterstuetzung_finden/ BMWi_Leitfaden-fuer_Arbeitgeber_EN_02.2021.pdf 242.  Tanja Zech. 2020. “Skilled personnel welcome.” Deutschland.de. January 27, 2020. https://www.deutschland.de/en/topic/business/ the-skilled-labour-immigration-act-working-in-germany 243.  Tobias Buck. 2019. “Germany steps up hunt for migrant workers amid fears for economy.” Financial Times [paywall]. December 16, 2019. https://www. ft.com/content/e59457d4-2002-11ea-b8a1-584213ee7b2b 106 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain Box 16. Creating perspectives for youth in Kosovo cont. Germany to undertake the third year as part of a Since that time, the organizing committee has local apprenticeship. The plan was to ensure train- been working hard on the next phase of the proj- ees in the first two years would have the opportu- ect. The Skilled Worker Immigration Law has facil- nity to spend summers in Germany working with itated more intensive discussion surrounding employers, thereby building trust within compa- qualification recognition, leading to the develop- nies who would, hopefully, employ them at the ment of a curriculum which includes two years of end of the training program. the general subjects required by Kosovar author- ities (which will be delivered in Kosovo) and one In the end, the project was never implemented for year of specialist subjects required by the German four reasons. First, it was hard to translate the Ger- chambers (which will be delivered in Germany). man curriculum to the Kosovar context. Construc- It was developed in conjunction with the leading tion trainees in Kosovo require general subjects German chamber responsible for Kosovo, and will and once the specialist German ones were added, be piloted by a public construction training school the curriculum was too large. Second, German in Kosovo. Before COVID-19, the plan was to train partners weren’t cognizant or sympathetic to these 15 students in September for migration. There are requirements. Third, construction has a poor two remaining issues. The first is the wage paid by reputation in Kosovo, which made it hard to find German employers and whether it would be suffi- people willing to invest the effort and cost needed. cient to meet the existing income threshold. The Fourth, qualification recognition was to take too second is finding willing trainees and ensuring long. The organizing committee tried to negoti- those on the “home” track stay in Kosovo. Given ate an automatic approval for degrees from the that Kosovo is part of Europe, there are other ave- Kosovar school, but this was deemed too difficult. nues through which they could move. As a result, And finally, any migrants into Germany needed to the project is also working to develop the construc- prove they could financially support themselves, tion sector in Kosovo through improving training, and the wage offered was lower than this thresh- wages, and working conditions. old. At the time, German companies did not want to pay more to get over this threshold. Source: Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH. “Creating perspectives for youth in Kosovo.” https://www.giz. de/en/worldwide/66634.html, and interviews with relevant stakeholders Even in the absence of this law, various agencies within is little coordination between different government the German government, particularly the German departments. There is broad ambition to scale and link Development Agency GIZ, have long been working up these efforts, while also investing in training and to expand legal migration opportunities for people development in countries of origin. The construction from third countries. To date they have more than 15 Global Skill Partnership proposed below is one way in pilots, which is more than any country in Europe.244 Yet which to do this. many of these pilots remain at small scale, and there 244. See https://www.cgdev.org/gsp Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 107 Implementing a Global Skill destination (the “away” track). The country of destina- Partnership tion provides technology and finance for the training and receives migrants with the skills to contribute to As described above, Germany is experiencing large the maximum extent and integrate quickly. and persistent skill shortages, particularly within the construction sector. The percentage of foreign-born The following sections outline how such a Global workers within the German construction industry Skill Partnership in construction could be developed continues to rise and is far larger than in other com- between Germany and Nigeria, including aspects of parable sectors. As a result of this demand, the new its design, risks and mitigation measures, and poten- Skilled Worker Immigration Law seeks to facilitate tial funding sources. The points listed below are not easier access into the German labor market for both exhaustive. Undoubtedly, further points will be raised vocationally trained foreign-born workers, as well as through the required extensive consultations between new trainees. While there are implementation issues parties on both sides, and opportunities for testing with this law, the broad strokes provide an opportu- new approaches should be pursued. nity to invest in the training of foreign workers within needed construction skills, facilitating the movement of some to plug skills shortages within the German Design labor market. Below we have outlined the various stages required Nigeria is a country on the rise, with the infrastruc- when designing a Global Skill Partnership, namely: ture deficit requiring substantial investments in the built environment. Yet the sector is beset with poorly 1. Signing government-to-government agreement; trained and informal operators, insufficient training 2. Consulting relevant stakeholders; infrastructure, and a low image of the construction 3. Signing on interested employers; sector overall. Such problems hamper the effective- 4. Developing curricula and training materials; ness and growth of both Nigerian construction compa- 5. Designing contributions to broader systems; nies but also multinational companies that would like 6. Facilitating mobility; and to take advantage of this booming market. A construc- 7. Evaluating the scheme (and potentially scaling). tion partnership between Nigeria and a country of des- tination like Germany could help increase the stock of well-trained workers within Nigeria, improve the Signing government-to-government agreement training infrastructure, and provide a useful source of labor for the German market. The first stage required within the formulation of a construction Global Skill Partnership is the signing of One way to do this is through the Global Skill Part- a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) or a Bilateral nership model. A Global Skill Partnership is a bilat- Labor Agreement (BLA). These agreements should be eral labor migration agreement between a country of negotiated directly by the GIZ and BMZ in Germany origin and a country of destination. The country of and the Federal Ministry of Labour and Employment origin agrees to train people in skills specifically and in Nigeria and take into account the needs of the labor immediately needed in both the country of origin force on both sides. Such discussions are ongoing (see and destination. Some of those trainees choose to stay Box 17) and there are many similar agreements on and increase human capital in the country of origin which to build. (the “home” track); others migrate to the country of 108 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain Box 17. Programme on Partnership Approaches for development oriented Vocational Training and Labour Migration (PAM) In early 2021, the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Inter- In Nigeria, the aim would be to collaborate with a nationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH submitted new construction academy, the Federation of Con- a proposal to the Federal Ministry for Economic struction Industry (FOCI) Skills Academy.1 FOCI, Cooperation and Development (BMZ) to establish which was founded by eight companies in 1954 as a new skill partnership in the field of construc- the Federation of Building and Civil Engineering tion with Nigeria. Different approaches regard- Contractors in Nigeria, has grown to have a mem- ing training and mobility are also being piloted in bership of over a hundred engineering construc- other sectors in up to five other countries includ- tion companies.2 The building of this new artisanal ing Ecuador and Vietnam. The project has been skills development academy broke ground in running since July 2019 and is planning to run until Abuja in December 2020, with the aim of eventu- June 2023. These new partnerships are aiming to ally skilling Nigerians in masonry, plumbing, and ensure more highly qualified people are available carpentry. Julius Berger Nigeria, one of the largest for the labor markets in the countries of origin construction companies in the country and a sub- as well as Germany; in some of the partnerships, sidiary of Julius Berger International GmbH (head- this will be achieved by implementing a dual-track quartered in Germany), is supporting the facility approach. The project will be building off earlier financially, as is GIZ and other donors. Training is work conducted within the ‘Creating perspectives due to begin in Spring 2021. for youth in Kosovo’ project (see Box 16) and GIZ’s other efforts to improve vocational training in countries of origin. Source: Interviews with relevant stakeholders 1.  Julius Berger. 2020. “50th Anniversary Commemoration: Julius Berger Builds Artisinal Skill Academy in Abuja, Partners FOCI and GIZ.” Press Release. December 5, 2020. https://www.julius-berger.com/press/50th-anniversary-commemoration-julius-berger-builds-artisanal-skill-acade- my-in-abuja-partners-foci-and-giz 2.  Stockswatch. 2019. “Construction Industry will grow to the Next Level – Engr. Nasiru Dantata.” Stockswatch. July 9, 2020. http://stocksng.com/ construction-industry-will-grow-next-level-engr-nasiru-dantata/ Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 109 Table 7. Required stakeholders for a Germany-Nigeria construction Global Skill Partnership Nigeria Role Germany Role Government Federal Ministry of Sign MOU and oversee Federal Ministry for Sign MOU, manage Foreign Affairs, Federal project management Economic Cooperation project Ministry of Works and and Development (BMZ) Housing (FMWH) Federal Ministry of Labor Sign MOU and manage Deutsche Gesellschaft Provide ODA, ensure and Employment (FMLE) project für Internationale development impact of Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) project GmbH Nigerians in Diaspora Ensure protection German Federal Office Ensure integration Commission (NiDCOM) of rights of Nigerian for Migration and of Nigerians into the migrants in Germany and Refugees (BAMF) German labor market, harness the project for monitor the implementa- national development tion of the project Nongovernmental Nigerian Labor Congress Ensure that both local Goethe Institute Design language curric- bodies and international labor ulum, deliver language standards are maintained training, certify trainees for the protection of for visa application trainees and employees under the project International International Support Migrants International Support implementation bodies Organization for Resource Centers (MRC) Organization for of pre- and post-de- Migration (IOM), Nigeria with pre-departure coun- Migration (IOM), Global parture training, share selling and training best practice, (possibly) provide funding International Labour Support Nigerian Labour International Labour Provide oversight of Organization (ILO), Congress to ensure that Organization (ILO), Global labor standards, protect Nigeria labor standards are migrant rights maintained in accordance with ILO Conventions relating to the protection of migrants’ rights Professional Council of Registered Provide certification and Association of German Provide accreditation to bodies Builders of Nigeria accreditation of “home” Chambers of Commerce Nigerian-trained con- (CORBON) track trainees as the and Industry (DIHK) struction professionals Sector Skills Council of the construction industry Employers Federation of Recruit “home” track Employers willing to Recruit construction Construction Industry trainees post training engage with the project professionals in “away” (FOCI) – as the umbrella and facilitate recruitment track, facilitate appren- body for the biggest of ‘away’ track trainees ticeship, support trainees construction companies where possible in receiving accreditation operating in Nigeria and through the Chamber of beyond Crafts Trade unions National Union of Collaborate with relevant IG Bauen-Agrar-Umwelt Provide oversight of Civil Engineering, bodies to ensure protec- (IG BAU) labor standards, protect Construction, Furniture tion of the labor rights migrant rights, ensure and Wood Workers of construction workers program is not used as a (NUSECFWW) selected for the project substitute for improve- ments in wages and working conditions 110 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain Table 7. Required stakeholders for a Germany-Nigeria construction Global Skill Partnership cont. Nigeria Role Germany Role Diaspora AFFORD, Nigerian in Support integration of organizations Diaspora Organisation Nigerians in “away” track, (NIDO) Germany facilitate remittance and skill transfer Consulting relevant stakeholders Other construction companies that may have links with Germany are Dantata & Sawoe, Brastem-Sterr Nig. The second phase will be to ensure that all relevant Ltd., Construction Kaiser, Rock Results Group, Makasa stakeholders have been consulted and had the oppor- Sun Nig. Ltd., Metalum Ltd, Periform, and Scaffold- tunity to engage with the design of the Global Skill Part- ing Nig. Ltd. All are members of the Nigeria-German nership—the relevant stakeholders are listed in Table Chamber of Commerce. 7. While not all of these stakeholders need to be for- mally engaged in the implementation of the project, Developing curricula and training materials it is crucial that all are regularly consulted through- out the length of the project and given the opportunity The fourth phase is to consult with employers willing to provide feedback on required course corrections. to engage with the project as well as the German This will ensure that all stakeholders provide a positive Chamber of Crafts and the Nigerian Federal Ministry rhetoric about the impact of the project which will be of Labor and Employment to design the curriculum necessary given inevitable criticism from both within for the training of Nigerian construction profession- and outside government. als. Ensuring that the training course delivered in both the “home” and “away” track conforms to the needs of Signing on interested employers the labor markets on both sides will be the most diffi- cult part of the design. It will be necessary to conduct The third phase is to select those employers to partner in-depth reviews of labor needs (both now and in the with in both Nigeria and Germany. On the former, it future) in both countries by conducting desk research, makes sense to partner with Julius Berger Nigeria as and exchanging with senior federations, chambers it is a lead contributor to the new Federation of Con- of commerce, employment, and investment agen- struction Industry (FOCI) Skills Academy and clearly cies. Such skills need should be developed in line with has a need for skilled professionals for its operations national employment strategies and contribute to the in Nigeria. An inexhaustive list of other companies to economic development goals of both countries. These consider approaching include Setraco, Reynolds Con- analyses will also be useful far beyond the construc- struction Company (RCC), Arab Contractors, Cappa tion sector, helping identify skill needs across a range & D’Alberto, C & C, Gilmor, PW, Brunelli, Adold Engi- of sectors to support a range of potential partnerships. neering, Ringardas, and the China Civil Engineering and Construction Company (CCECC). In conducting research and analysis for this report, we suggest that the “home” track focus on building On the latter, it makes sense to pick German compa- general construction skills that can be used within the nies which are suffering from significant skill short- growing housing sector, and the “away track” focus on ages but which are also situated in cities with large building both these general skills and more special- African diaspora such as Berlin. The parent company, ized, supervision, skills. To ensure those undertaking Julius Berger International, is an obvious place to start. the training have the requisite skills for the program, Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 111 it is suggested that those with upper secondary school Box 18. Skills Development for Youth education are targeted. Employment (SKYE) Given the needs of the German Chamber of Crafts, the From 2018 to 2022, the German Federal Min- structure of the training in Nigeria will be incredibly istry for Economic Cooperation and Develop- important. Ideally, the training center would deliver ment (BMZ) is working on a project with the the first two years of the German construction cur- Federal Ministry of Budget and National Plan- riculum in Nigeria, with those in the “away” track ning (FMBNP) to improve the quality of the moving to Germany to undertake the final year of their vocational training system in Nigeria, among apprenticeship. Those on the “away” track may seek to other goals. The focus is on the labor-intensive undertake on-the-job placements, either in Nigerian construction and agriculture sectors and the companies or during their training breaks in Germany, occupational field of industrial mechanics, and to get practical experience. It may also be possible to the overall aim is to better align skills training shorten the final year of their apprenticeship over in these sectors with the needs of MSMEs. Since time, perhaps down to six months. its inception, over 3,380 beneficiaries have been trained, and 557 have found employment. Yet getting to this position will require an increase in Source: Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale the quality of training in Nigeria as well as an increase Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH. “Skills Development for Youth Employment - SKYE.” https://www.giz.de/en/worldwide/72119. in trust among employers as to the quality of gradu- html, and interviews with relevant stakeholders. ates. Therefore, the project could start by delivering a one-year pre-preparation course in Nigeria. This train- ing would have no formal recognition in Germany but would prepare this cohort for further training in either “home” track also, perhaps up to A1 level, and an inten- country. Then, those on the “away” track would move to sive program of “training the trainers” could take place Germany to undertake the final two years of their train- to ensure there are trained Nigerian German language ing. It would need to be agreed that the one-year train- teachers to ensure the sustainability of the project. ing satisfied demand within Nigerian companies and/ or that those in the “home” track would have access to Finally, careful attention must be paid to integration. further courses that would equip them with these skills. Those on the “away” track must be provided with pre- and post-departure training which includes informa- Crucially, this training will also require a language tion about entry into German economy and society. component. The minimum for entry under the new This could be delivered by the IOM or other nongov- Skilled Immigration Act is German up to B1. This is a ernmental organizations that, perhaps, facilitate the high standard, especially for trainees who have no cultural integration of refugees and asylum-seek- experience with German, and will require intensive ers now. Both tracks will need to include some form training. It is suggested that those in the “away” track of soft-skills training too, in transfer thinking, prob- also conduct German language training throughout lem-solving, and independent learning. the length of their one-year training course. Once they complete this course, they could be enrolled in a full- Designing contributions to broader systems time booster program to ensure they achieve B1 level. This training could be delivered by the Goethe Insti- The training and mobility aspects of the project should tute, either in person or online. In addition, some form be accompanied by ODA investments in improving of language training could be offered to those on the the construction system of Nigeria as a whole. Here, 112 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain the biggest investment that such a project could make beginning, middle, and end of the project, as well as would be substantial investment in the training and some time after to ascertain the long-term impacts of education facilities of Nigeria. As described above, the program. It is not enough to facilitate the mobility Nigeria has a booming construction sector yet lacks of such workers and then assume, due to the design of the skilled labor it needs to take advantage of this the training, that integration will be automatic. Nega- growth. Aid being channeled into Nigeria through tive experiences are likely to create a negative feedback this project could be used to extend the activities con- loop, deterring future participants in the scheme from ducted as part of the Skills Development for Youth choosing the “away” track. Hence close attention should Employment (SKYE) project or the Nigerian College be paid to the integration prospects of such trainees. of Practical Skills and Start-Up Centre. Such invest- ments would help formalize training and curricula in Such activities could be conducted in-house (say, GIZ) a range of subjects and, crucially, support the staffing or contracted externally. Crucially, such evaluations of smaller enterprises who may not have the resources should use control groups for both employees and to engage in a broader Global Skill Partnership. employers to understand the impact of the program in all countries and for all sets of people. Reiterating Facilitating mobility the above, understanding the impact of the project to employers is vital to being able to prove its importance The sixth phase is to design the mobility component of to other employers and other governments. the “away” track. Trainees should be brought in under the new Skilled Immigration Act and granted a four- Based on the evidence gathered, the main actors will year visa which can be extended if both the employer need to decide whether and how to scale the pilot and employee are satisfied. As a result of this visa cat- scheme. The Global Skill Partnership model is best egory, no support for return and reintegration should implemented at a small scale in the early phases, be needed, though some financing should be set aside perhaps bringing over 100 construction professionals should participants chose to return for any reason. They in the first cohort. In this way, the assumptions inher- should be able to bring their dependents who should ent in the design can be tested and adapted. In the also have access to work visas. IOM could support with long-run, given strong demand, there is potential to pre- and post-departure training, while the German scale the project to thousands of construction profes- Chamber of Crafts should help facilitate registration sionals per year, perhaps also expanding opportuni- and post-arrival training. Those in the “away” track ties across regions and to countries such as Ghana and should also be connected to diaspora groups such as Senegal. Over time, the unit cost of the project should AFFORD when they arrive, to help facilitate their inte- decrease. Close attention should be paid to the project, gration. Labor standards must be upheld throughout; and multiple evaluations conducted, to ensure the in particular governments should adhere to Interna- project is still having the desired impact. If the needs tional Convention on the Protection of the Rights of of employers change or diminish, the project must be All Migrant Workers and Members of Their Families ready to adapt to this new reality. (1990), Article 43 which outlines minimum standards. Evaluating the scheme (and potentially scaling) Risks and Mitigation Measures As described in Section 2, the potential benefits from Section 2 attempted to outline a number of risks and Global Skill Partnerships are vast and must be eval- potential mitigation measures that are inherent in all uated. This evaluation should be conducted at the Global Skill Partnerships. In addition to this list, there Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 113 are three specific risks which are likely to occur in the Funding development of such a partnership in construction between Germany and Nigeria. Given the stated interest of GIZ in implementing a Global Skill Partnership in construction with Nigeria The construction remains a sector with a poor reputa- (see Box 16), it appears that German ODA can be used to tion, such that people in Nigeria are reluctant to invest support a scheme. GIZ has a long history of using ODA in substantial training programs. As described above, to expand legal migration opportunities to Germany Nigeria has a booming construction sector that strug- and improve training and education in countries of gles to recruit workers domestically. This could be due origin, hence it should not be a large departure from to the perception of construction as a career that is past investments. low-skill and low-status. As described in Box 16, similar issues arose within the GIZ project in Kosovo, whereby Such funding could be supplemented by the World it was difficult to find youth who were interested in Bank and the MPF. An application to the latter could investing the effort and cost required. Any Global be made by GIZ on behalf of partners in Germany Skill Partnership in the construction sector therefore and Nigeria. A new round of funding (MPF IV) will be must both understand the issues that make the sector launched in 2021 and is available to support pilot proj- unattractive at a domestic level (such as low pay, poor ects on legal migration.245 Providing the application working conditions, or a lack of financial support for had adequately considered the labor market needs of training) and ensure these are tackled in tandem. both parties and had been designed in collaboration with a wide range of stakeholders, it is likely to be well Language skills requirement might not be an easy received by the ICMPD team. hurdle to cross. The construction industry in Nigeria has a reputation for attracting youth who do not have As described in Section 2, it may be difficult to obtain higher secondary level of education, on average. The private sector buy-in during the pilot phase of the German language skills requirement might therefore program which is why this case study recommends be a discouraging factor for some aspirants. A longer using development assistance and international orga- duration of training could be integrated to support nization financing in the initial stages. However, in language requirements. the long run, a construction partnership should look to transfer financial responsibility for the training of Some risks may arise because of cultural differences. those on the “away” track to the private sector within Inability to understand and manage such differences Germany. To be able to transition into a more sustain- might have both short-term and long-term psycholog- able financing model, the pathway will need to demon- ical effect that could impact performance at work, rela- strate the impact of the program to German employers tionships and general personal success as a migrant. by attempting to ascertain the changes in productivity This issue can be addressed through in-depth culture and investment due to plugged skill shortages. More training during pre-departure orientation or prefera- information about how to build and include such an bly through integrated social skills training that could evaluation is described in Section 2. be taken along with the hard skills training planned to prepare prospective migrant workers in-country. 245.  International Center for Migration Policy Development (ICMPD). “MPF III: Call for Proposals.” https://mobilitypartnershipfacility.eu/calls-for-proposals/ mpf-iii-call-for-proposals 114 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain Section 5: Case Study. A Global Skill Partnership in Information, Communications, and Technology (ICT) between Nigeria and Europe Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 115 The digital economy, of which the information, com- The digital economy is huge and growing rapidly. munications, and technology (ICT) industry is a part, is Researchers from Huawei and Oxford Economics worth 15.5 percent of global GDP. Yet the sector is vast found that it is “worth $11.5 trillion globally, equiva- and hard to define, with roles spanning the spectrum lent to 15.5 percent of global GDP, and has grown two of mid- to high-skilled, and present within a variety of and a half times faster than global GDP over the past 15 industries. Many of these roles are vacant, with skill years.”247 The ICT industry stands at the center of this shortages harming firms in Nigeria as well as coun- and has been a powerful driver of economic growth in tries throughout Europe. The following section out- low-, middle-, and high-income countries around the lines a Global Skill Partnership between Nigeria and world.248 Unsurprisingly, the industry has been fairly a number of European countries including Germany, resilient to the impact of COVID-19 and global lock- the UK, Belgium, and Lithuania within ICT. It includes downs.249 The move to digital working and learning has an overview of the training and migration landscape in accelerated take-up of ICT services and the skills that all countries, the specific design of such a partnership, come with that. New technologies have been created and risks and mitigation measures. at rapid speed and the world has become more con- nected than ever before.250 Developing an ICT Migration Given the disparate nature of the ICT industry, it is Partnership unsurprising that roles within the industry also vary considerably. The European Centre for the Develop- The OECD refers to ICT as the “manufacturing and ment of Vocational Training (CEDEFOP) notes that services industries whose products primarily fulfil or most roles within Europe’s ICT industry are highly enable the function of information processing and skilled—in 2015, 7 out of 10 people held high qualifi- communication by electronic means, including trans- cations, and about one-quarter held medium-level mission and display.”246 As a result of this definition, the qualifications.251 In addition to hard skills in program- industry includes companies that make and distribute ming languages, data analysis, and data security, ICT such technology, as well as roles within the compa- professionals also need a range of soft skills includ- nies which use this technology. It therefore encom- ing problem solving and flexibility. While some within passes both the creation of ICT assets (e.g. computer the industry work in roles that are both long-term and hardware, software, infrastructure) and ICT services permanent, others operate on a contract basis. This is (e.g. research and development, analysis, program- especially the case within emerging economies such as ming). Both make up part of the much broader “digital Nigeria, where many firms are small and hire staff on a economy”, a powerful engine for economic growth contract basis.252 and job creation around the world. 246.  Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). “Information and communication technology (ICT).” https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/ science-and-technology/information-and-communication-technology-ict/indicator-group/english_04df17c2-en 247.  Makada Henry-Nickie, Kwadwo Frimpong, and Hao Sun. 2019. “Trends in the Information Technology Sector.” Washington, DC: Brookings. https://www. brookings.edu/research/trends-in-the-information-technology-sector 248.  Thomas Niebel. 2018. “ICT and economic growth – Comparing developing, emerging and developed countries.” World Development 104, 197-211. April 2018. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.11.024 249.  OC&C. 2020. “ICT Services: Financial impacts on a “critical enabler” in a Covid-19 world.” https://www.occstrategy.com/media/2678/ict-and-digital-ser- vices-covid19-impacts.pdf 250.  Parul Oberoi and Neha Singh. 2020. “COVID-19: Consequences and opportunities for the ICT sector.” Fractal. https://fractal.ai/ covid-19-consequences-opportunities-for-ict/ 251.  Cedefop. 2016. “ICT professionals: skills opportunities and challenges (2016).” https://skillspanorama.cedefop.europa.eu/en/analytical_highlights/ ict-professionals-skills-opportunities-and-challenges-2016 252.  Vijaya Ramachandran, Jennifer Obado-Joel, Razaq Fatai, Junaid Sadiq Masood, and Blessing Omakwu. 2019. “The New Economy of Africa: Opportunities for Nigeria’s Emerging Technology Sector.” Washington, DC: Center for Global Development (CGD). https://www.cgdev.org/reader/ new-economy-africa-opportunities-nigerias-emerging-technology-sector 116 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain Figure 28. ICT professionals are needed in 24 occupation in 24 EU Member States (Figure 28). Similar EU Member States trends can be seen across low- and middle-income countries. As will be explored further below, Nigeria is Shortage said to be Africa’s biggest digital market and the digital Surplus economy could add $88 billion and 3 million jobs to Varied for detailed occupations (see analysis) the economy by 2027.255 Yet employers say job readi- ness among young people is low and the training and education sector has not been able to keep up with the changing demands of employers.256 Two potential factors may reduce the demand for ICT workers within both countries of origin and destina- tion. First, automation. The digital economy, by its very nature, is constantly attempting to improve produc- tivity by introducing robots, AI, and other time-sav- ing technologies into the workforce.257 Whether this will displace the need for manual workers is uncer- tain. Second, COVID-19. Whether the shock will lead to more offshoring is unclear—will it provide more opportunities within countries of destination,258 or will companies increasingly look closer to home?259 Source: Cedefop. 2016. “ICT professionals: skills opportunities and challenges (2016).” https://skillspanorama.cedefop.europa.eu/en/analytical_highlights/ ict-professionals-skills-opportunities-and-challenges-2016 ICT Worker Migration The ICT industry is growing rapidly and so too is the Given the sizeable skills shortages present within demand for talent. From 2005 to 2015, employment the ICT industry, and the rapidly changing nature of for ICT professionals in the EU grew by one-third, and employer demand, countries have long sought to use a further 10 percent growth is expected by 2025.253 foreign workers within key roles. For roles that can be In addition, the current workforce is aging and local done remotely, employers have used both offshoring training and development is not keeping pace with (relocating or subcontracting work abroad) and out- demand.254 As a result, the ICT industry is a shortage sourcing (expanding company operations into foreign 253.  Cedefop. 2016. “ICT professionals: skills opportunities and challenges (2016).” https://skillspanorama.cedefop.europa.eu/en/analytical_highlights/ ict-professionals-skills-opportunities-and-challenges-2016 254.  Liberty Global. 2014. “What kind of jobs are there in the ICT Industry?” All Digital. March 27, 2014. https://all-digital.org/kind-jobs-ict-industry/ 255.  Jobberman. 2020. “The Digital Sector Skills Gap Report 2020.” https://www.jobberman.com/research 256.  Vijaya Ramachandran, Jennifer Obado-Joel, Razaq Fatai, Junaid Sadiq Masood, and Blessing Omakwu. 2019. “The New Economy of Africa: Opportunities for Nigeria’s Emerging Technology Sector.” Washington, DC: Center for Global Development (CGD). https://www.cgdev.org/reader/ new-economy-africa-opportunities-nigerias-emerging-technology-sector 257.  Makada Henry-Nickie, Kwadwo Frimpong, and Hao Sun. 2019. “Trends in the Information Technology Sector.” Washington, DC: Brookings. https://www. brookings.edu/research/trends-in-the-information-technology-sector 258.  Dylan Matthews. 2020. “Covid-19 taught companies how to run remote offices. That could transform developing countries.” Vox. September 21, 2020. https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/21445830/work-from-home-covid-19-offshoring 259.  Ryan Carter. 2020. “Is COVID-19 Upending Offshore Outsourcing?” Traders Magazine. November 17, 2020. https://www.tradersmagazine.com/am/ is-covid-19-upending-offshore-outsourcing/ Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 117 companies) to make use of foreign labor pools.260 But and (iii) transferring individuals employed by multina- even within the digital economy, there are some roles tional companies between offices.261 that must be done (or are better done) onsite. To facil- itate this, employers have used three main strategies: The skill shortages present within the industry today (i) Recruiting foreign workers from abroad; (ii) recruit- have seen employers and their countries increasingly ing immigrants already in the country of destination; attempt to employ the first strategy, by liberalizing visa Box 19. IOM Belgium and Luxembourg’s, Enhancing Tunisian youth employability through professional internships in Belgian companies Between March 2018 and August 2019, IOM Bel- Analysis of the impact of the program by the Center gium and Luxembourg implemented a project for European Policy Studies (CEPS) has found that all in partnership with the Government of Belgium, participants, except for two who wanted to continue the Government of Tunisia, and various public their studies, managed to find a job by the end of the and private employment agencies. The project project. Half had already done so during their Bel- ‘Enhancing Tunisian youth employability through gian internship. Eighty-nine percent of these found professional internships in Belgian companies’, roles in Tunisia, 7 percent in Belgium, and 4 percent aimed to reduce pressure on the Tunisian labor in Germany. Importantly, 26 percent were hired by market by offering 31 graduates the opportu- the company that hosted their internship, specifi- nity to work in Belgium for six months through cally by those organizations’ subsidiaries in Tunisia. apprenticeships and internships across 12 differ- Both participants and employers were, on average, ent Belgian companies.1 Upon return to Tunisia, satisfied with the program, though employers high- participants were supported in job-seeking for lighted the delays before participants were able to five months and received additional training to start work. Before the program, seven of the com- enhance their skills.2 panies had never hired internationally before. Now, they are interested in collaborating further and even in extending business operations to Tunisia.3 Source: Mattia Di Salvo and Nelson Mallè Ndoye. 2020. “Paving the way for future labour migration: A Belgian-Tunisian Skills Mobility Partnership.” Brussels: Center for European Policy Studies (CEPS). https://www.ceps.eu/ceps-publications/ paving-the-way-for-future-labour-migration/ 1.  International Organization for Migration (IOM). 2018. “Project Information Sheet: Enhancing Tunisian youth employability through profes- sional internships in Belgian companies.” Brussels: International Organization for Migration (IOM). https://belgium.iom.int/sites/default/files/Gallery/ Factsheet%20Enhancing%20Tunisian%20Youth%20Employability_EN.pdf 2.  Mattia Di Salvo and Nelson Mallè Ndoye. 2020. “Paving the way for future labour migration: A Belgian-Tunisian Skills Mobility Partnership.” Brussels: Center for European Policy Studies (CEPS). https://www.ceps.eu/ceps-publications/paving-the-way-for-future-labour-migration/ 3. Ibid. 260.  Philip Schörpf and Ursula Holtgrewe. 2016. “Understanding the impact of outsourcing in the ICT sector to strengthen the capacity of workers’ organizations to address labor market changes and to improve social dialogue.” Vienna: FORBA. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/321749121_ Understanding_the_impact_of_outsourcing_in_the_ICT_sector_to_strengthen_the_capacity_of_workers’_organisations_to_address_labour_market_changes_and_ to_improve_social_dialogue 261.  International Labour Organization (ILO). 2020. “Skills shortages and labour migration in the field of information and communication technology in Canada, China, Germany and Singapore.” Geneva: International Labour Organization (ILO). https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_dialogue/---sector/ documents/publication/wcms_755663.pdf 118 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain schemes and implementing pilot projects. To date, be in demand two years from now when workers are these interventions have largely focused on attracting trained.264 Partnerships therefore need to be incredibly already qualified talent from foreign countries, usually flexible to respond to this. at high-skill levels. For example, the EU’s Blue Card Directive aims to attract highly qualified workers from The nature of ICT work itself. Especially in countries of third countries to apply for roles within the EU and in origin, ICT work is often short-term or done on a con- return, receive a work permit of one to four years.262 sultancy basis. Therefore, any training in hard skills Such legal labor immigration pathways have facilitated may need to go alongside additional support for busi- the movement of foreign workers to the EU to work in ness investment and/or entrepreneurship. This will the ICT industry, especially those from India.263 help develop the employment prospects of both those who prefer longer-term projects, and those who want to work on a short-term basis. Promoting a Genuine Development Benefit The nature of training for ICT skills. Even in a country Promoting labor migration within the ICT field has like Nigeria, with its booming ICT sector, the formal pros and cons. As PALIM has found, the ICT sector training system is essentially nonexistent. While there may be more politically palatable than, say, health are ad hoc training programs, many learn online in care, which comes with a host of greater ethical con- a fragmented way, and are not necessarily taught the siderations. The language requirements are usually skills that are in need within ICT companies either at lower, especially if workers are operating within home or abroad. Investing in ICT training will there- programming languages or other forms of software fore likely require starting from the ground up with development. Companies may be more interested the concurrent requirements in terms of resource. in collaborating due to the booming nature of ICT markets within low- and middle-income countries, especially given the future potential for offshoring ICT in Nigeria and investment. It was expressed during our inter- views that the ICT sector is considered by many to be The ICT sector contributed to 15 percent of Nigeria’s “low-hanging fruit”, a way to test the potential of such GDP in 2020, behind only the agriculture sector which pathways and prove their impact, before moving on to contributed 20 percent.265 It is also one of the fastest more challenging sectors like construction and health growing sectors in Nigeria. Figure 29 shows the pre- care. On the other hand, it is a difficult sector to work COVID-19 (2016-2019) and during COVID-19 (2019- within for three main reasons. 2020) growth rates of different sectors contributing to Nigeria’s GDP. The ICT sector grew at 18 percent The changing nature of private sector demand. The between 2016 and 2019 and continued to grow at 12 specific skillsets required change quickly as the digital percent during 2020, emerging as one of the sectors economy moves on. What is in demand now, may not that did not suffer as a result of the pandemic. 262.  European Parliament. 2015. “The EU Blue Card Directive.” https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2015/558766/ EPRS_BRI%282015%29558766_EN.pdf 263.  Divya Satija and Arpita Mukherjee. 2013. “Movement of ICT Professionals between India and the EU: Issues and the Way Forward.” CARIM-India Research Report 2013/14. New Delhi: CARIM-India. https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/45683683.pdf 264.  Helen Dempster and Michael Clemens. 2020. “The EU Migration Pact: Putting Talent Partnerships into Practice.” Center for Global Development (CGD) Blog. November 19, 2020. https://www.cgdev.org/blog/eu-migration-pact-putting-talent-partnerships-practice 265.  National Bureau of Statistics. 2020. “Nigeria Gross Domestic Product Report (Q4 and Full Year 2020).” https://nigerianstat.gov.ng/download/1229 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 119 Figure 29. The GDP growth in Nigeria’s ICT sector continued despite of COVID-19 0.15 Percentage growth rate (2019-2020), during COVID Information, Finance and Communication Insurance and Technology 0.1 (ICT) Human Health and Social Administrative Public Services and Support Administration Services Agriculture Water 0 -0.15 -0.1 -0.05 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 Manufacturing Arts and Electricity and -0.05 Other Entertainment Gas Construction Trade Real State Professional, Scientific and Mining and Technical Quarrying -0.15 Education -0.2 Accomodation and -0.25 Food Services Percentage growth rate (2016-2019), pre-COVID Source: World Bank Calculations using data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) The continued growth in Nigeria’s ICT sector demon- other key sectors, it contributed 17.8 percent to Nige- strates the strides made by Nigeria in establishing ria’s GDP during the second quarter of 2020.268 essential ICT related infrastructure. Overall, Nigeria has a vibrant ICT sector made up of both large and In 2019, Nigeria adopted a National Digital Economy small firms delivering cross-cutting services in health Policy and Strategy 2020-30. One of the eight pillars of care, agriculture, finance, e-commerce and retail. The the strategy focuses on digital literacy and skills with sector has 90 tech hubs which is the most in Africa fol- the aim of creating a pool of Nigerians with globally lowed by South Africa’s 78 and Egypt’s 56.266 The sector recognized and certified digital skills.269 In the last few is also the biggest technology market on the conti- years, however, the ICT sector, like many other sectors, nent.267 As the ICT sector is deeply integrated with has faced several challenges due to macroeconomic 266.  Toby Shapshak. 2019. “Africa Now Has 643 Tech Hubs Which Play “Pivotal” Role For Business.” Forbes. October 30, 2019. https://www.forbes.com/sites/ tobyshapshak/2019/10/30/africa-now-has-643-tech-hubs-which-play-pivotal-role-for-business/?sh=694cceda4e15 267.  Vijaya Ramachandran, Jennifer Obado-Joel, Razaq Fatai, Junaid Sadiq Masood, and Blessing Omakwu. 2019. “The New Economy of Africa: Opportunities for Nigeria’s Emerging Technology Sector.” Washington, DC: Center for Global Development (CGD). https://www.cgdev.org/reader/ new-economy-africa-opportunities-nigerias-emerging-technology-sector 268.  National Bureau of Statistics. 2020. “Nigerian Gross Domestic Product Report (Q2 2020).” https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/pdfuploads/GDP_Report_ Q2_2020.pdf 269.  Federal Ministry of Communications and Digital Economy. 2019. “National Digital Economy Policy and Strategy (2020- 2030).” Abuja: Federal Ministry of Communications and Digital Economy. https://www.ncc.gov.ng/docman-main/industry-statistics/ policies-reports/883-national-digital-economy-policy-and-strategy/file 120 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain slowdown and currency depreciation as a result of the become CPN members by taking CPN’s professional 2015-16 recession. examinations.273 There are other ICT-related profes- sional bodies which are also regulated by CPN.274 The stakeholders and government agencies collaborate in The Workforce the regulation and maintenance of the professional content of ICT syllabi. The ICT sector has been earmarked as having consid- erable potential to provide employment and entre- preneurial opportunities for the growing number ICT Management and Training of youths in the country. Despite this, the ICT sector growth has not translated into jobs. Despite the pres- The training ecosystem consists of both formal and ence of some of the biggest global tech companies informal providers. Formal training is provided by such as IBM, Microsoft, Google, and CISCO, the sector universities and other higher educational institutions, employed only one percent (497,000 persons) of the at workplaces, and through traineeship programs. The country’s population as of 2017.270 Unemployed youth curriculum design and accreditation are jointly done find it difficult to benefit from the opportunities in the by CPN and the National Universities Commission sector due to technical and soft skills gaps. In terms of (NUC), the National Commission for Colleges of Edu- digital skills development, Nigeria ranks 122nd out of cation (NCCE), and the National Board for Technical 140 countries.271 Education (NBTE) for respective formal training insti- tutions. Training effectiveness is, however, hampered Nigeria’s ICT sector is regulated by government and by outdated curriculum, poor infrastructure, mis- nongovernment stakeholders and associations led match between curriculum and the market needs. And by the Computer Professionals Registration Council this shows in the quality of graduates most of whom of Nigeria (CPN). The CPN registers all qualified ICT reportedly lack skills in artificial intelligence, machine professionals and practitioners and conducts assess- learning, data science, big data analytics, cloud infra- ment and licensing of private academies. Examples structure, etc.275 Some employers offer in-service train- of ICT professionals/ CPN members are graduates ing to fill the skills gaps but the high turnover in the of Computer Science/Engineering, Information and sector means that many of the trained workers move to Communication Engineering and the like. Addition- employers that offer higher pay, providing little incen- ally, there are 74 broad practice areas mentioned in tive for the employers to sponsor training. the CPN’s Regulation for ICT Service 2017 including identity management services, maintenance of com- Informal training is accessible via both online and puter hardware and software, system integration ser- offline platforms including computer repair shops, vices, internet service provision, network security, web peer learning groups, and training and certifica- hosting, and so on.272 Graduates of non-ICT fields can tion platforms such as Coursera and edX. The offline 270.  United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). 2019. “Digital Economy Report 2019. Value Creation and Capture: Implications for Developing Countries.” New York: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/ der2019_en.pdf 271.  Klaus Schwab. 2019. “The Global Competitiveness Report 2019.” Geneva: The World Economic Forum (WEF). http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_ TheGlobalCompetitivenessReport2019.pdf 272.  Nigerian Federal Government. 2017. “Service Constituting Practice of Computing under the Computer Professionals Registration Council of Nigeria Act.” May 8, 2017. https://www.cpn.gov.ng/download/NEW_REGULATIONS_ON_ICT_SERVICES.pdf 273.  Computer Professionals (Registration Council of) Nigeria (CPN). “Examinations.” https://www.cpn.gov.ng/metro/?ref=metro/content&list=cd/3 274.  Nigeria Computer Society (NCS); Information Technology Association of Nigeria (ICTAN); The Institute of Software Practitioners of Nigeria (ISPON); and The Nigerian Association of Computer Science Students (NACOSS). 275.  Jobberman. 2020. “The Digital Sector Skills Gap Report 2020.” https://www.jobberman.com/research Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 121 training and certification platforms are noted for and one of the first tech start-ups in the country. Since their ineffectiveness while learners who engage in then tech firms have been established in the fields of peer learning and online personal training are noted energy, agriculture, banking, transportation, logistics, to excel at work.276 Sector stakeholders believe that health, and finance.278 most Nigerian software developers are self-learners who have taught themselves through online platforms Sector stakeholders in Nigeria support legal migra- which results in specific skills shortages required in tion, especially for skills enhancement. Temporary the job market. As a result, some corporate entities migration for purposes such as exchange programs have begun to domesticate ICT training in Nigeria. or value-maximizing labor is encouraged. While the For example, the Microsoft Foundation is training 450 narrative persists of net human capital loss in the ICT software developers, while Jobberman is collaborating sector due to skilled youth who migrate to find better with Mastercard Foundation to train one million youth job opportunities abroad279, what is seldom discussed in soft skills such as emotional intelligence, innova- is the role that these youth play to support technology tiveness, problem solving, lifelong learning, growth transfers back to Nigeria, or in the human capital accu- mindset, leadership/courage and intellectual humility. mulation of prospective ICT professionals. Migration Potential Destination Markets Unfortunately, there is no good data regarding the The ICT sector is growing rapidly. It stands at the heart presence of Nigerian ICT professionals abroad. of the digital economy, which has grown two and a half Certainly, key countries of destination for Nige- times faster than global GDP over the past 15 years.280 rian migrants see large numbers of foreign person- COVID-19 has accelerated the uptake of digital tech- nel working within their ICT sectors. Over the past nologies, and the ICT sector is expected to be one of three decades, the global migration of ICT specialists the few to not suffer hugely from the pandemic. About has been on the rise and began with the migration of one-quarter of the roles within the ICT sector in Europe Indian ICT specialists to the United States.277 Globally, are mid-skill roles such as programming, data analy- migrant ICT professionals contribute substantially to sis, and data security. And these roles are available in innovation in destination countries. But they can also large supply. From 2005 to 2015, employment for ICT contribute through technology and skill transfers to professionals grew by one-third and it is expected to countries of origin such as Nigeria. For example, in grow by a further 10 percent by 2025.281 Given this size- 2012, two Harvard Business School graduates from able demand, it is unsurprising that many European Nigeria cofounded Jumia, a Nigerian e-commerce site countries have chosen ICT as the sector they wish to 276.  Qualitative information based on interviews with sector stakeholders. 277.  International Labour Organization (ILO). 2019. “Skills shortages and labour migration in the field of information and communication technology in India, Indonesia and Thailand.” Geneva: International Labour Organization (ILO). https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_dialogue/---sector/docu- ments/publication/wcms_710031.pdf 278.  Vijaya Ramachandran, Jennifer Obado-Joel, Razaq Fatai, Junaid Sadiq Masood, and Blessing Omakwu. 2019. “The New Economy of Africa: Opportunities for Nigeria’s Emerging Technology Sector.” Washington, DC: Center for Global Development (CGD). https://www.cgdev.org/reader/ new-economy-africa-opportunities-nigerias-emerging-technology-sector 279.  Yomi Kazeem. 2018. “Nigeria’s tech ecosystem is struggling to keep hold of its best software engineers.” Quartz Africa. December 17, 2018. https://qz.com/ africa/1491951/nigeria-tech-developers-move-to-europe-us-canada/ 280.  Makada Henry-Nickie, Kwadwo Frimpong, and Hao Sun. 2019. “Trends in the Information Technology Sector.” Washington, DC: Brookings. https://www. brookings.edu/research/trends-in-the-information-technology-sector 281.  Cedefop. 2016. “ICT professionals: skills opportunities and challenges (2016). https://skillspanorama.cedefop.europa.eu/en/analytical_highlights/ ict-professionals-skills-opportunities-and-challenges-2016 122 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain focus on when developing mobility partnerships. This Box 20. Make-It in Africa section outlines how such a project would be imple- mented with Germany, the UK, Belgium, or Lithuania, The move to a more digital-based economy as well as outlining some challenges common to all. provides vast opportunities for emerging mar- kets to meet the SDGs. Here, technological entrepreneurship is key as it enables entrepre- Germany neurs to modernize their country’s economy and society, identify innovation solutions, and In 2017, ICT contributed 4.2 percent to the German create new opportunities and jobs. Yet as this GDP; just under five percent of people are employed report has shown, in countries like Nigeria, it is in the sector overall.282 Most workers within the sector difficult for tech entrepreneurs to create, sus- obtain vocational qualifications and end up being tain, and grow their businesses. both more highly educated and more highly paid than the average German worker. Yet the training of Between 2017 and 2019, GIZ and the German new ICT workers is not keeping pace with demand. In Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation 2019, more than 100,000 positions within the sector and Development (BMZ) implemented a new remained vacant.283 Specialists within software devel- project called Make-IT in Africa whereby they opment, application support, ICT security, and data invested in building business ecosystems in science were particularly needed. CEDEFOP estimates Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Rwanda, and Tunisia. that by 2030, Germany will need 138,000 additional The aim was to support 50 tech start-ups in two ICT professionals, 40 percent of whom will be com- pilot countries, Nigeria and Kenya, to facilitate puter programmers.284 improvements in sustainable and inclusive development. To facilitate the migration of skilled ICT profession- Source: Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale als, the new Skilled Immigration Act includes a special Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH. “Make-IT in Africa.” https://www. giz.de/en/worldwide/57293.html provision for ICT specialists. They are able to take up employment in Germany even without a formal qual- ification. All that is required is three years’ experience, a monthly income of at least €4,020, and a conciliation UK agreement with BMAS.285 The Federal Employment Agency (BA) has established the Zentrale Auslandsund In 2016, the UK ICT sector contributed $160 billion to Fachvermittlung (ZAV) (Central International Inter- the UK economy, increasing by over 20 percent from mediation Service) which provides counselling and 2011. It spends more per head on ICT than any other job placement services to skilled migrants, including country barring the US.286 There were 950,000 people ICT professionals. employed in ICT and telecommunications in the UK in 282.  International Labour Organization (ILO). “Skills shortages and labour migration in the field of information and communication technology in Canada, China, Germany and Singapore.” Geneva: International Labour Organization (ILO). https://www.ilo.org/global/docs/WCMS_755663/lang--en/index.htm 283.  Make it in Germany. “Working, studying, living in Germany.” https://www.make-it-in-germany.com/en/jobs/professions-in-demand/scientists-it 284.  Cedefop. “Skills Forecast.” https://www.cedefop.europa.eu/en/publications-and-resources/data-visualisations/skills-forecast 285.  International Labour Organization (ILO). “Skills shortages and labour migration in the field of information and communication technology in Canada, China, Germany and Singapore.” Geneva: International Labour Organization (ILO). https://www.ilo.org/global/docs/WCMS_755663/lang--en/index.htm 286.  International Trade Administration. 2019. “United Kingdom Information Communication Technology (ICT).” Last published October 13, 2019. https:// www.trade.gov/knowledge-product/united-kingdom-information-communication-technology-ict Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 123 2016, 3 percent of the working population, with an 82 Belgium percent to 18 percent male to female split.287 The major- ity of these fall within the professionals category with Belgium’s ICT sector is flourishing. “It currently con- others employed as researchers, sales, and in man- tributes over 4 percent of Belgium’s gross domestic agerial roles. In 2018, the Open University Business product, and between 1997 and 2007 it accounted for Barometer estimated that there are 600,000 vacancies a sixth of the country’s growth.”292 While digitization within the sector, and that this is costing the country impacts the entire labor force, there are substantial “£6.3 billion per year in recruitment fees, inflated sala- (and growing) labor shortages within the ICT sector. By ries, temporary staff, and training for workers hired at 2030, there will be 584,000 unfilled vacancies which a lower level than intended.”288 Of the 950 businesses will mean the country misses out on €60 billion of surveyed, 91 percent struggled to find workers with GDP.293 These vacancies occur due to both a growing the right skills, and most felt the situation was going need within the sector as well as a low number of grad- to get worse. The number of students taking ICT and uates. While ICT workers are needed across Belgium, computing secondary qualifications has fallen, and as shortages are most acute in Flanders and Wallonia, a result, it is expected there will be one million tech with the lowest shortages in Brussels. vacancies in a few years’ time.289 Since 1999, Belgian law has operated a selective immi- In January 2021, as a result of Brexit, the UK instituted gration policy. Highly skilled workers must have a a new Points-Based Immigration System. This system higher education diploma and a job offer that exceeds includes a Skilled Worker route, whereby someone will the legal threshold, but they are then able to obtain a be able to access a visa if they have a job offer at a spe- work permit without employers having to subject the cific skill level, a good level of English, and a minimum role to labor market tests. Employers of less skilled salary of £25,600. This requirement is reduced to roles must prove those roles cannot be undertaken £20,480 if they have a job offer within a specific short- by local workers either through individual assess- age occupation.290 Included on this shortage list are ICT ments or through those roles being “bottleneck vacan- business analysts, architects, and systems designers as cies” (which include ICT professionals).294 Belgium has well as programmers and software development pro- a devolved immigration policy and each of Belgium’s fessionals, web design and development professionals, four regions (Brussels, Flanders, Walloon, and the and cyber security specialists (among other roles).291 German community) has its own labor market poli- This visa lasts five years and can be extended. cies and its own public employment office.295 ICT pro- fessionals can apply to come to any of the four regions 287.  Office for National Statistics (ONS). 2017. “Are we training enough people to become programmers?” Published June 19, 2017. https://www.ons.gov.uk/ businessindustryandtrade/itandinternetindustry/articles/arewetrainingenoughpeopletobecomeprogrammers/2017-06-19 288.  Edge Foundation. 2018. “Skills shortages in the UK economy.” Bulletin 2. Published July 2018. https://www.edge.co.uk/research/projects/ skills-shortages-uk-economy/skills-shortage-bulletin-2/ 289.  Neil Franklin. 2018. “Shortage of tech skills and 600,000 job vacancies costing UK economy £63 billion a year.” Insight. August 1, 2018. https://workplacein- sight.net/shortage-of-tech-skills-and-600000-job-vacancies-costing-uk-economy-63-billion-a-year/ 290.  UK Visas and Immigration. 2021. “An introduction for employers (accessible version).” Updated January 4, 2021. https://www.gov.uk/government/ publications/uk-points-based-immigration-system-employer-information/the-uks-points-based-immigration-system-an-introduction-for-employers 291.  UK Visas and Immigration. 2020. “Skilled Worker visa: shortage occupations.” Published December 1, 2020. https://www.gov.uk/government/ publications/skilled-worker-visa-shortage-occupations 292.  Business.Belgium.Be. “ICT sector.” https://business.belgium.be/en/investing_in_belgium/key_sectors/ict 293.  AGORIA. 2018. “La digitalisation et le marché du travail belge.” September 2018. Brussels: AGORIA. https://www.acdn.be/_projects/bethechange/bro- chures/brochure_FR_V08.pdf 294.  Ramboll. “Bottleneck Vacancies in Belgium.” https://ec.europa.eu/social/BlobServlet?docId=12644&langId=en#:~:text=Bottleneck%20vacancies%20are%20 a%20widespread,lack%20of%20skills%20(15%25) 295.  Rachel Swain. 2020. “Work in Belgium.” Last updated July 2020. https://www.prospects.ac.uk/jobs-and-work-experience/working-abroad/ work-in-belgium 124 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain under this facilitated migration route and stay for a period of up to three years (the visa is renewable). Box 21. European Pilot Project Linking Moroccan ICT Development and Labour Shortages in Flanders (PALIM) In late 2018, the Belgium development agency, As the first full pilot of the Global Skill Partnership Enabel, approached the EU’s Mobility Partnership model, the experience of PALIM has a lot to teach Facility (MPF) for funding to support a new pilot other countries of destination that are interested project. The pilot project was to be modelled on in such a model. Many of these lessons learned the Global Skill Partnership concept and would will be explored in the sections below. The project train young Moroccans in ICT skills that were in focused on the ICT sector which Enabel felt was need by employers in both Morocco and the Bel- more “doable” as there were no ethical difficulties gium region of Flanders. The project brought with recruitment, no large technical difficulties in together Enabel and the Flemish and Moroccan the skills required both in Morocco and Flanders, employment agencies (VDAB and ANAPEC), the fewer language requirements, and opportunities Flemish employer federations VOKA and Ago- for offshoring, remote work, and employer invest- ria, and their Moroccan counterparts CGEM and ment. Yet the rapidly changing demands of ICT APEBI, as well as Fedasil and the Flemish Agency companies meant that the project had to alert and for Migration.1 flexible, conducting robust labor market needs assessments, getting strong training profiles from The project ran between March 2019 and August the relevant companies, and adapting the training 2020. In that time, 120 young unemployed Moroc- (even mid-curriculum) to changing demand. cans were trained with specific ICT skills. Those who entered the “away” track of the project also Enabel is planning to scale PALIM as part of a new received language training in Dutch, as well as cul- project: Towards a Holistic Approach to Labour tural awareness and integration training. While Migration Governance and Labour Mobility in recruitment and mobility has been delayed due to North Africa (THAMM).2 As part of this project, hun- COVID-19, there remains substantial interest from dreds of Moroccans and Tunisians will be trained employers on both sides; the first trainees moved in ICT skills and placed with companies in Belgium in late 2020. and Germany, while facilitating entry into compa- nies within countries of origin. This project is new, and the implications remain to be seen. Source: Enabel. 2019. “PALIM – European Pilot Project Linking Moroccan ICT Development and Labour Shortages in Flanders.” Published March 1, 2019. https://www.enabel.be/content/europees-proefproject-palim-linkt-it-ontwikkeling-marokko-aan-knelpuntberoepen-vlaanderen-0 1.  Enabel. 2019. “PALIM – European Pilot Project Linking Moroccan ICT Development and Labour Shortages in Flanders.” Published March 1, 2019. https://www.enabel.be/content/europees-proefproject-palim-linkt-it-ontwikkeling-marokko-aan-knelpuntberoepen-vlaanderen-0 2.  International Labour Organization (ILO). “Towards a Holistic Approach to Labour Migration Governance and Labour Mobility in North Africa (THAMM).” https://www.ilo.org/africa/technical-cooperation/WCMS_741974/lang--en/index.htm Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 125 Box 22. MATCH – Hiring African Talents MATCH is a 36-month initiative funded by the EU, The project is new, and no talents have yet moved aimed at matching highly skilled people in Nige- through the scheme. As Figure 30 shows, private ria and Senegal to private sector companies with sector companies would send their vacancy pro- skill needs in Belgium, Italy, The Netherlands, and files to the IOM office in Belgium and Luxembourg. Luxembourg. The project is not solely focused on They would source candidates in Senegal and Nige- ICT skills, though they are targeting those highly ria using the private recruitment company Alde- skilled. The initiative aims to create a pool of tal- lia. Workers would then be screened by IOM, local ent from which companies can draw, while also employment agencies in Senegal and Nigeria, and facilitating collaboration between companies and Aldelia, and a shortlist then presented to the com- remote working options during COVID-19. It is pany. After online interviews and company specific also planning to implement skills development, tests, talent can then move to Europe. MATCH has capacity building, and knowledge sharing between chosen to work with Senegal and Nigeria given their participating countries. different language profiles (French and English, respectively), developed ICT infrastructure, and ambitious plans for job creation and growth. Figure 30. MATCH in practice – an overview Needs assessment to understand who you are looking for 1 Soft landing for candidates returning to Senegal and Nigeria 8 2 Pre-selection of relevant candidates Additional training and capacity 7 3 Your company makes the final decision on building in the EU; engagement with the recruitment diaspora groups Onboarding phase while mobility restrictions are Relocation of candidates to your company in the EU 6 4 in place: remote working and optional trainings for your candidates 5 Logistical preparations and administrative support to companies and candidates (visa/work/residence permit) Source: International Organization for Migration (IOM) Belgium & Luxembourg. “MATCH – Hiring African Talents.” https://belgium.iom.int/match 126 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain Lithuania Lithuania too is suffering from skill shortages. Many of the roles on the Labour Exchange of Lithuania’s six- In early 2020, it was announced that Lithuania had the monthly projections are from the ICT sector.297 fastest growing fintech sector in the European Union, growing 24 percent in recent years. The country hosts In early 2019, Lithuania amended its law on the Legal 13 of the 20 largest ICT companies in the Baltic States Status of Aliens to create quotas for foreign workers and in 2015 there were projections that ICT invest- from third countries based on a shortage list of occupa- ments would account for 25 percent of the country’s tions. The changes also made it easier for people from GDP. The number of people working in the sector has high-income non-EU countries to move to Lithuania, grown 25 percent since 2015, and one in four students and for people from third countries to gain a Start-up are studying Science, Mathematics, Computing, and Visa. Everyone else is subject to the quota system.298 Engineering courses.296 Despite this pipeline of talent, Employers must first seek a worker from Lithuania Box 23. Digital Explorers Between January 2019 and September 2020, Lith- and building stakeholder networks. In fact, the uania entered into a partnership with Nigeria to program was never conceived of as a labor migra- promote the migration of ICT professionals. The tion pathway but more as a way to better connect project, financed by the EU’s MPF, aimed to bring the two countries. The majority of the project was up to 50 young graduates to Lithuania for a 6-to-12- implemented by the ICT sector itself. Interviewees month career advancement program. The trainees felt this “bottom-up” approach helped build trust would take part in tailor-made training courses with the private sector far more than if it had been and internships, as well as receive additional led by the government or other institutions. support in cultural integration and soft skills. Throughout this time, the trainees would build In the end, the project moved 15 people. Proj- up their skills, while contributing to the growth ect and migration costs were covered by Digital and development of Lithuanian ICT employers. At Explorers, while the salaries were covered by the the end of the project, the newly skilled graduates employers. A stipend cost was shared between the would return home to Nigeria to contribute their project and employers. The project is now moving skills to Nigerian employers. to develop a long-term pipeline of quality talent by investing in skill building in Nigeria and focusing Given the lack of previous engagement between on developing entrepreneurship skills. The second Lithuania and Nigeria, the project had to put a lot cohort will bring an all-female group of trainees to of effort into developing trust between partners Lithuania for a six-month internship. Source: https://digitalexplorers.eu/ and interviews with key stakeholders 296.  Invest Lithuania. “Technology.” https://investlithuania.com/key-sectors/technology/ 297.  Migration Law Center. “The professions needed in Lithuania. A list of the most in-demand professions in Lithuania.” https://www.migration.lt/ the-professionals-needed-in-lithuania-a-list-of-the-most-in-demand-professions-in-lithuania 298.  China.cee. 2019. “Lithuania social briefing: Lithuania is planning to use quotas for third-country migrants according to the shortage of occupa- tions.” May 9, 2019. https://china-cee.eu/2019/05/09/lithuania-social-briefing-lithuania-is-planning-to-use-quotas-for-third-country-migrants-accord- ing-to-the-shortage-of-occupations/ Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 127 before seeking expertise internationally. Those from destination (the “away” track). The country of destina- third countries must have a formal qualification, a job tion provides technology and finance for the training offer, and experience within their sector for at least and receives migrants with the skills to contribute to one year. At the end of that year, a Residence Permit the maximum extent and integrate quickly. may be issued.299 Without closer inspection of how a Global Skill Part- nership could be implemented in practice, it is diffi- Implementing a Global Skill cult to develop a blueprint. Yet in this final section, we Partnership have attempted to outline some risks and mitigation measures which should be factored into the design, as As described above, many European countries are well as ways in which to promote a genuine develop- experiencing large and persistent skill shortages, par- ment benefit within the project. ticularly within the ICT sector. While roles within the sector span from low- to high-skill, there is a growing number needed within the mid-skill bracket. Euro- Risks and Mitigation Measures pean countries have long sought to attract highly trained ICT talent from countries of origin, includ- In addition to the other design factors mentioned ing from Nigeria, but have (to date) done little to build throughout this report, there are three complicating the skills of potential graduates to satisfy ICT sector factors when considering the development of a Global demand at both ends of the pathway. Skill Partnership within the ICT sector. Nigeria is also suffering from a lack of qualified ICT The presence of offshoring within the industry. The workers, a situation that is exacerbated by their highly impact of COVID-19 on offshoring is yet to be fully fragmented and informal training system. Despite determined. On the one hand, the rise of remote work these shortages, the ICT sector in Nigeria is booming may lead to a digital revolution within a wider set of and it is on track to become one of the largest digital industries that lead some to offshore more, therefore markets in the world. Hence there is a real opportu- reducing the need for skilled labor to move to the EU. nity for substantial and targeted investment in the ICT On the other hand, it has also exposed vulnerabilities training infrastructure within Nigeria to develop talent within supply chains and some employers may want to that is qualified for roles at home and abroad. offshore less to fortify their resilience to such shocks. Overall, it is important to keep in mind that there have One way to do this is through the Global Skill Part- been substantial skill shortages within the ICT indus- nership model. A Global Skill Partnership is a bilat- try for years before COVID-19, and these are likely to eral labor migration agreement between a country of still be in place after the pandemic. There is a reason origin and a country of destination. The country of why employers do not offshore the entirety of their origin agrees to train people in skills specifically and operations and why in-person staff will always be in immediately needed in both the country of origin demand. Therefore, while the trend toward more off- and destination. Some of those trainees choose to stay shoring should be examined (and indeed, supported, and increase human capital in the country of origin as this would also provide opportunities to people in (the “home” track); others migrate to the country of countries of origin) it should not be exaggerated. 299.  Migration Law Center. “Employment of aliens in Lithuania.” https://www.migration.lt/employment-of-aliens-in-lithuania 128 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain The skill level and type of ICT professionals that Promoting a Genuine Development Benefit EU countries are attempting to attract. All the skills examined in this report sit on a continuum of low to As discussed above, the ICT training infrastructure highly skilled. While health care skills can be medium within Nigeria is highly fragmented and informal. or high skill, the ICT sector tends to blur these lines. Those interested in a career within the ICT profession The design of any Global Skill Partnership in ICT must often resort to online classes and/or informal work be careful to pick skills which are in demand in both placements in computer repair shops. Many emerge countries, and which cannot be facilitated through with skills that are targeted at specific programming other legal migration routes such as the Blue Card languages or specific data analysis tools, rather than directive or permissive national immigration policies. general digital skills that are in demand among com- panies in Nigeria, let alone abroad. While there are a The rapidly changing nature of the sector. The digital number of local and aid-supported start-ups attempt- economy, by its very nature, is fast moving. The spe- ing to remedy this situation, they could use more invest- cific skillsets required by employers are likely to shift ment and support. A robust training curriculum and rapidly. What is in demand now, may not be in demand new training facilities should be created to support the two years from now when workers are trained. Any training of a new cohort of ICT professionals to serve partnerships must be alive to this reality. It is likely local ICT needs. Such a pipeline could, eventually, be that implementation of an ICT Global Skill Partnership used to support roles overseas. ODA should support will need shorter training courses (six to nine months) the government in its efforts to reduce regulations in which can fluidly adapt to changing private sector place which are constraining the growth of the sector demand in both countries. and also help develop a sector analysis and growth plan to make the most of Nigeria’s booming market. It is difficult to go into the specifics of how an ICT part- nership could be funded given that the potential coun- In addition to providing this targeted training in tries of destination (and the financial willingness of much-needed skills, any Global Skill Partnership in ICT their employers) is unknown. Yet as described above, with Nigeria must also take note of the nature of the it may be useful to use the development assistance market itself. Many employers prefer to hire contrac- component of international organization financing tors for short-term and targeted assignments, rather to support the development of a pilot (as the PALIM than bring on long-term or in-house workers. Many project did). However, in the long run, an ICT part- employees prefer to work this way too as they get to nership should look to transfer financial responsi- take on varied clients and develop their skills. Hence, bility for the training of those on the “away” track to it would be worth investing in entrepreneurship and the private sector. To be able to transition into a more business development skills training for these workers sustainable financing model, the pathway will need to to help them find meaningful opportunities within demonstrate the impact of the program to employers the Nigerian ICT sector and grow their businesses to by attempting to ascertain the changes in productivity employ others. and investment due to plugged skill shortages. Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 129 Conclusion By 2050, the working-age population of Europe is pro- This section also provided a guide to selecting sectors jected to decline by over 15 percent from 2020 levels, and destination countries that are most amenable to adding to the existing labor shortages that the conti- pilot this innovation. The third and fourth sections nent is already experiencing. At the same time, the described a health care partnership between Nigeria population between the ages of 20 and 64 in Sub-Sa- and the UK, and a construction partnership between haran Africa is expected to quadruple by 2100 as the Germany and Nigeria, detailing the state of workforce largest cohort of children reach working age, signifi- needs in each of the sectors in the countries of origin cantly increasing the existing employment pressure and destination, and sketching out an implementation in the region. While most of those entering the labor plan involving relevant stakeholders in the process. market in Sub-Saharan Africa will need to find jobs The fifth and final section explores potential destina- domestically, some of them will have the opportunity tion countries for partnerships in the ICT sector. to move to neighboring countries and outside of the continent to fill in labor shortages and send remit- The private sector in Nigeria is currently unable to tances back home. absorb all of the growing number of educated youths entering the labor force. The tertiary education system This report outlined one of the approaches through is likely exacerbating this challenge as it is unable to which this movement can be facilitated between align its curriculum to meet the global demand for Nigeria, the largest economy in Africa, and Europe. It a skilled workforce. As such, innovative approaches does so in five distinct sections. The first section looked that involve a multistakeholder partnership between at the opportunity provided by the scenario of labor the government and the private sector in Nigeria as surpluses in Nigeria and labor shortages in Europe, well as international employers and training provid- and how opening new channels for safe, orderly, and ers, are needed to design programs that are based on regular migration for young Nigerians could lead to a projected shortages in key sectors and are relevant for win-win scenario, displacing some of the existing irreg- both Nigeria and destination countries. The Global ular flows while allowing Europe to address growing Skill Partnership is one such approach that needs to labor shortages in the region. The second section be tested, evaluated, and scaled to enable a move away described the innovation to make use of this oppor- from the current lose-lose narrative where skills short- tunity, by implementing a Global Skill Partnership to ages persist in Europe while skilled youth continue to invest in training and education within Nigeria and look for opportunities in Nigeria. to develop skills needed in both Nigeria and Europe. 130 Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain 131