A G R I C U LT U R E G L O B A L P R A C T I C E N O T E Early Warning Systems for Improving Food Security in East and Southern Africa Ademola Braimoh, Bernard Manyena, Makoto Suwa, Grace Obuya, and Gunnar Larson Changing weather patterns associated with climate-related phenomena such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation are projected to worsen food insecurity throughout the 25 countries of East and Southern Africa in the coming years. Rising temperatures and the increasing incidence of extreme events such as droughts and floods are making investment in early warning systems in the region markedly more urgent—an urgency underscored by the effects of El Niño on food production in 2016, the recent outbreak of Fall armyworm, the elevated risk of potential famine in northern Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, and South Sudan, and the threat of Cyclone Idai of March 2019 to food security and health in Mozambique, Malawi, and Zimbabwe. A combination of changing and chronic environmental conditions, as well as socioeconomic issues, Dasan Bobo/World Bank AGRICULTURE GLOBAL PRACTICE NOTE — APRIL 2019 FIGURE 1:  Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) for East and Southern Africa, February—May 2019 East Africa Southern Africa Source: FEWSNET, 2019. converge to increase vulnerability among The necessary early warning systems are not yet in place, and gaps in the flow of information between agencies and food insecure populations (Figure 1). levels of government in east and southern African coun- Early warning systems enable more tries greatly limit the governments’ abilities to prepare proactive, less reactive responses which and respond to emerging problems or to communicate actionable warnings and advisories to affected audiences, are well tailored for local conditions. such as producer groups. The development of these The practical information generated systems remains an area of underinvestment throughout by reliable hydromet monitoring and the region. effective forecasting, which underpins Within the greater Africa region, the importance of early early warning systems, is a public good warning systems is broadly recognized by the African with which governments and their Union (AU) and the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Program (CAADP). In its 2014 Malabo Decla- partners can protect the productivity of ration, the AU urged member states to make and maintain agricultural livelihoods and food security the financial commitments necessary for multi-hazard among both producers and consumers. early warning systems and disaster risk information to be readily accessible by affected communities. This need for Moreover, other climate-sensitive sectors effective systems is required to achieve the goals of the of the economy beyond the agricultural Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and has sector would also benefit from hydromet been reaffirmed both by the Yaoundé Declaration in 2015 and early warning systems (EWSs). 2 | AGRICULTURE GLOBAL PRACTICE NOTE — APRIL 2019 Dasan Bobo/World Bank and by the Mauritius Declaration of 2016 in statements of Early warning systems are employed both within and support for that framework. between countries, at the level of the regional eco- nomic community. The African Union recognizes five Early warning systems generally consist of four elements. such communities among the 25 countries of east and The first is a clear understanding of risk and the factors that southern Africa. A World Bank report published in January drive risk. The second element is continuous monitoring of 2018, Assessment of Food Security Early Warning Systems the parameters and precursors that enable administrators for East and Southern Africa,1 documented the findings to anticipate hazards and to generate timely and accurate and recommendations of a survey of the performance of information about those hazards. The third is the ability national and regional early warning systems in the area to communicate and disseminate highly useful, practical and their effectiveness in meeting the needs of users. information that enables affected parties to respond pur- The survey was conducted through both interviews and posefully. The fourth element is the formulation of disaster questionnaires. management plans that facilitate those purposeful responses. These four elements of early warning systems Country-level early warning systems were assessed fairly require substantial coordination across multiple agencies positively by respondents in terms of the clarity of their and levels of government, from the national to the local, in roles, responsibilities, and application of national standards order to work. Any failure of this coordination, or bottle- neck on the part of any one element of the early warning 1  The report can be downloaded at http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/ system, can lead to failure on the part of the entire system. en/454781516290787924/pdf/122857-ESW-P161298-PUBLIC.pdf AGRICULTURE GLOBAL PRACTICE NOTE — APRIL 2019 | 3 for risk assessments. Some 71 percent of the respondents Communications and information dissemination on the reported their impression that hazards were regularly eval- part of country-level early warning systems continues to uated (Table 1). Respondents were less favorably disposed rely heavily on traditional means such as radio, telephone, toward the extent to which country-level systems involved sirens, and in some remote areas, drums and messengers. local communities and private sector participants and users This leads to uneven and not altogether timely commu- in risk assessments—an involvement most saw as limited. nication, particularly in those remote settings. The intro- Approximately 67 percent felt that a central database—a duction of RANET radios in Kenya and parts of Zambia has necessary element of early warning systems—did not exist. improved this coverage and timeliness in these places. However, the use of social media outlets such as Face- While 75 percent of respondents and key informants felt book, Twitter, and WhatsApp are still in their infancy owing that hazard monitoring based on early warning systems to poor mobile network coverage and prohibitive Internet was in place, field consultations revealed that food security costs. information systems tend to be fragmented along sector lines, making it more difficult for users to access informa- Some 76 percent of respondents believed that their tion. Much of this appeared to be attributable to the tight countries had in place some system for translating infor- division of labor between government departments and mation from early warning systems into preparedness agencies, and their tendency to not share information and response plans, and contingency plans in particular. and data with one another. Respondents also noted a lack Interviews with key informants however revealed serious of 24 hours a day, 7 days a week warning services, which doubts about the quality of contingency plans and the are another vital requirement of effective early warning impression that at least some were not based on plausible systems. scenarios. These interviewees viewed the contingency Andrea Borgarello/World Bank 4 | AGRICULTURE GLOBAL PRACTICE NOTE — APRIL 2019 TABLE 1:  Performance of Different Components of Food Security Early Warning Systems at the National Level in East and Southern Africa Frequency, percentage Strongly Somewhat Strongly Subjects Agree Agree Disagree Disagree Disagree Risk assessment Hazards are regularly analyzed and 24 47 14 10 5 evaluated Affected communities and industries are 10 29 19 32 10 consulted in risk assessments Central database for risk assessments 0 33 9 29 29 exists Monitoring and warning services Food security information system is in place 40 35 0 20 5 Warning centers are staffed 24 hours 0 25 10 50 15 Data are received and processed and 15 25 15 35 10 warnings disseminated timely, in meaningful formats, and in real or near-real time Early warning information dissemination and communication Communication and dissemination of 6 41 23 12 18 warnings are tailored to the needs of individual communities Private sector resources are used in 6 18 29 41 6 disseminating warnings Warning alerts and messages are tailored 0 29 24 35 12 to the specific needs of those at risk  Application of early warning information for response planning Hazard and vulnerability maps are used to 29 47 6 18 0 develop national emergency preparedness and response plans Regular public awareness/education 18 47 0 29 6 campaigns are conducted Regular simulation exercises are undertaken 0 26 26 16 32 to test the effectiveness of the EWS systems EWS governance mechanisms and investment Economic benefits of EWSs are highlighted 24 18 18 34 6 to senior government and political leaders Early Warning is integrated into national 12 29 24 29 6 economic planning Capacities of agencies are assessed and 6 29 18 29 18 capacity-building plans developed and resourced Early Warning System legal or policy 10 45 15 25 5 framework exists AGRICULTURE GLOBAL PRACTICE NOTE — APRIL 2019 | 5 Vincent Tremeau/World Bank incorporated early warning systems in some way. However, most saw an absence of an overarching legal or policy framework with which to bring stakeholders together, with the result that early warning systems in some countries are overly fragmented along sector lines. Some 65 percent of respondents felt that the early warning system–related activities were not adequately resourced. Only about 41 percent of stakeholders felt that Early Warning is integrated into national planning, while about 60 percent felt that senior government and political leaders are not aware of the economic benefits of early warning systems because a cost-benefit analysis of previous disasters was seldom conducted. This resulted in limited buy-in on the part of decision makers, who tended to view monitoring the sys- tems’ indicators as an ad hoc, often seasonal activity unre- lated to national economic planning. This tends to leave the early warning system reliant on emergency budgets and rife with competition and trade-offs with other regular activities on the development agenda. Many of the findings at the regional level were similar to those concerning country-level early warning systems. Risk assessment at this level was similarly prone to working in silos according to the stark division of labor between agencies and directorates. Close to 93 percent of respon- dents saw limited to no private sector involvement in the conduct of risk assessments. Monitoring and warning services were identified as a problem area by 70 percent of planning as having failed to identify vulnerable commu- respondents, who found them ineffective at the regional nities, at-risk livelihoods, lacking infrastructure, and low level. Communications and the dissemination of informa- capacity. Most worrying was that the national contingency tion within regional economic communities were identi- plans were rarely informed by sector and subnational fied as problematic by a majority of respondents who felt plans because the systems for these plans were either less that warning messages were not tailored to fit the needs developed or nonexistent. With respect to public edu- of at-risk communities, and that the information related cation and awareness, 65 percent of the participants felt therefore had little practical use in informing decision that the public education programs were appropriate. Key making on the part of those communities. Communica- informants also stated that interest had grown in disaster tions was another area in which private sector investment education, particularly following the Hyogo Framework for and participation were underrepresented. Action 2005–2015. Some 74 percent of the respondents indicated that simulation exercises were not regularly Some 79 percent of respondents indicated that the use of conducted to test the EWS. The added value of simulation early warning information lacked any systems for simula- exercises is their role in testing and validating the planning tion exercises—an area of response planning that would assumptions. Exercising enhances the awareness of the otherwise be especially promising in preparing for the roles and responsibilities of responders, tests standard threat of Fall armyworm outbreaks. The same proportion of operating procedures and action triggers, and builds those interviewed felt that regional responses were often morale among responders. late in coming, until problem situations had already gradu- ated into emergencies. This is essentially the definition of a Only 55 percent of respondents indicated their impression reactive, as opposed to a proactive response. that their country had a legal or regulatory framework that 6 | AGRICULTURE GLOBAL PRACTICE NOTE — APRIL 2019 The results of the assessment of early warning systems sustainable vehicle for hydrometeorological monitoring pointed to a number of directions warranting increased and forecasting, though most of the services they deliver public sector investment, and these can be usefully parsed would consist of public goods and therefore be best into three categories: institutional capacity, technical carried out by specialized public sector agencies. Legal knowledge and its exchange, and leveraging financial frameworks and agreements may be necessary to ensure resources. that the services based on early warnings remain public goods. National meteorological and hydrological services will continue to be funded publicly. INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY Building the capacity of institutions responsible for admin- TECHNICAL KNOWLEDGE istering early warning systems will entail clarifying their roles and responsibilities, and developing common meth- AND ITS EXCHANGE ods and procedures for data collection, management, The capacity of providing agrometeorological and and sharing. The need for this consistency transcends the hydrological services that meet user demands warrants individual country and regional economic community to considerable priority in investment planning. The ability to extend to the entire African Union and CAADP. Regional carry out reliable crop, livestock, and vulnerability assess- technical committees assigned with responsibility for ments will rely on the quality of the data gathered, while monitoring threats to food security among other hazards the practical usefulness of the information generated may be a logical starting point for coordinating, packag- will depend on the ability to provide localized and timely ing, and communicating information, especially in terms weather and climate forecasts and translate them into of joint preparedness and response plans. These are actionable information. Diligent monitoring of regional likely to be more effective if their structures and proce- and national food balance sheets, commodity pricing, dures are mirrored by those of individual member states. and trade will enable countries to activate triggers when Public-private partnerships are a potentially effective and agreed-on thresholds are reached that indicate potential Digital Technologies for Early Warning and Food Security: the World Bank’s Agriculture Observatory To enhance readiness and response to weather emergencies, Zambia, Kenya, and Ethiopia are leveraging the geospatial capabilities of the World Bank’s Agriculture Observatory, a data platform (provided by aWhere Incorporated) that supplies real-time, high resolution agricultural weather information covering croplands and rangelands globally. The platform is based on a concept of “virtual weather stations” that are generated from a combination of existing meteorological ground stations, satellite platforms, and the application of big data, artificial intelligence, and machine learning. More than 1.5 million big data are generated from the virtual weather stations, and more than 7 billion data points are processed every 6 hours to create accurate agrometeorological data of 9 km spatial resolution. Data for the platform is drawn from open access sources and maintained in the cloud. The platform does not require a dedicated server infrastructure but can be accessed through a password protected log-in and managed via the Internet. The platform does not infringe on or share the country’s proprietary national weather data but can integrate such data into the system with government authorization. The platform allows resource managers to monitor actual weather patterns and to make projections of expected agricultural production, crop yields, and forage quality in the areas under investigation. Thus, the platform can be used for effective early warning of potential yield and food production shocks several weeks in advance of normal harvest periods. The high spatial resolution allows for the assessment of actual agricultural weather anomalies and the identification of crop failure ‘hot spots’ that can cause income losses, displacement, and conflicts. Such projections and analyses can be made at regional, national, or local level, based on need and demand. It effectively serves as a decision support tool for early warning and climate-smart agriculture. AGRICULTURE GLOBAL PRACTICE NOTE — APRIL 2019 | 7 threats to food security. Knowledge about emerging This really needs to become a matter of consensus among threats, such as Fall armyworm and other agricultural a large number of leaders and partners concerned with pests and diseases, is obviously a necessary element of economic development. The practical application of preparedness, and systematic communications with uni- principles underpinning climate-smart agriculture2 relies versities and research institutions can be indispensable in on hydromet monitoring and forecasting capabilities that this regard. The readiness and effectiveness of agricultural actively inform medium- and long-term strategies improv- extension services to disseminate practical news of what ing food security and reducing the risks that threaten it. A to do about these threats are closely related priorities in growing body of evidence suggests that the societal ben- areas where these services are underfunded. efits of meteorological and hydrological services (as well as other publicly funded services such as health and edu- cation) carry value that substantially exceeds the costs of LEVERAGING FINANCIAL those services. Even currently available financial resources RESOURCES can be leveraged to achieve greater effectiveness. Scaling Demonstrating the current economic value of national up technical support and investment in the capacity of meteorological and hydrological services to policy makers meteorological and hydrological services by development and other officials in financially constrained governments institutions such as the World Bank may be one of the best is a very real challenge that requires evidence-based advo- options available to those agencies for leveraging climate cacy of the economic necessity of early warning systems. and development finance. 2 Climate-smart agriculture is an approach for transforming and reorienting agricultural systems to support food security under the new realities of climate change. It addresses three main objectives: sustainably increasing agricultural productivity and incomes; adapting and building resilience to climate change; and reducing greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture. Acknowledgment: Financial support provided by the Global Food Price Crisis Response Trust Fund for the study is gratefully acknowledged. Internet: www.worldbank.org/agriculture,  Twitter: http://twitter.com/wb_agriculture