2017/85 Supported by K NKONW A A WELDEGDEG E OL N ONTOET E S ESREI R E ISE S F OFRO R P R&A C T HTEH E NEENREGRYG Y ETX ITCREA C T I V E S G L O B A L P R A C T I C E THE BOTTOM LINE A GIS approach to planning electrification in Afghanistan A new database of geospatial information and a related model allow Afghani planners Why is this issue important? • Transactional advice and knowledge sharing to estimate, analyze, and • Financial, economic, and community assessment Electrification promises significant social and visualize the most cost-effective • Collection of household and enterprise energy diaries electrification options for the economic returns in Afghanistan • Development of a least-cost electrification plan and investment achievement of electricity access Access to affordable and reliable electricity is essential to the prospectus goals. The tool is focused on the success of any economic growth strategy. Yet the percentage • Institutional assessment assessment and deployment of of the population with access to grid electricity in Afghanistan is primarily renewable technologies among the lowest in the world. Per capita consumption averages The study on which this Live Wire is based corresponds to the to “ensure access to affordable, 186 kilowatt-hours (kWh) per year, significantly less than the South fourth of these five parts. It aims to provide a sense of the scale of reliable, sustainable and modern Asia average of 707 kWh and far below the global average of 3,126 the investments needed to electrify the country and to inform a energy for all” (Sustainable kWh (based on authors’ calculations and 2014 World Bank data). more detailed analysis. Development Goal 7). Accessing the electricity grid remains a serious challenge in rural areas, where three-quarters of Afghans live and only 11 percent are How can access be improved? Alexandros Korkovelos connected to the grid (CSO 2016). is a research engineer in Through careful planning and solutions that take into On a national level, one significant barrier to Afghanistan’s the Division of Energy electrification is the lack of a “bankable” investment plan. While a account “spatial diversity” Systems Analysis (dESA) of least-cost expansion plan exists, it has not yet been translated into The recent experience of electricity utilities in many developing Sweden’s KTH Royal actionable targets and timetables. countries has shown that spatial diversity—that is, diversity in demo- Institute of Technology. The study summarized here (Korkovelos and others 2017) offers graphic attributes, terrain types, wealth levels, access to infrastruc- Morgan Bazilian an initial, “quick pass” analysis of the technological options and ture, resource availability, and other factors—affects the planning of is a lead energy specialist in the World Bank’s Energy investment requirements necessary to boost electricity access levels electrification. These factors need to be captured quantitatively and and Extractives Global in Afghanistan. It is part of the World Bank’s wider effort to provide with local specificity using a data-modeling platform that will allow Practice. an updated assessment of the energy sector so as to enable the users to view, share, and modify underlying data and assumptions. Dimitrios Mentis national government to make energy investments that will widen The widespread availability of new and low-cost geospatial is a lead researcher in access to affordable and sustainable energy. This effort—called the information and tools greatly reduces the costs of mapping dESA. Afghanistan Energy Study—is a five-part series of complementary resources and compiling geospatial datasets, which, in turn, permit assessments and surveys being conducted over a period of four the rapid creation of electrification plans with quantitative and spatial years (from June 2015 to June 2019). Its five parts are as follows: specificity and accuracy. Mark Howells directs dESA and holds the chair of energy systems analysis at KTH. 2 A G I S a p p r o a c h t o p l a n n i n g e l e c t r i f i c ati o n i n A f g h a n ista n Recent global experience shows that the most effective and access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all” efficient way of achieving a rapid increase in electrification is (Sustainable Development Goal 7).2 It can be used to assess options through a sectorwide approach in which both on- and off-grid-based across population settlements in well-defined locations and to electrification strategies are pursued in a complementary manner, reveal patterns at the national or subnational levels. The tool’s prime while taking exogenous variables like security issues and climate focus is the identification of the additional capacity and investment The widespread availability change into account. Under such an approach, implementation relies required to fulfill energy-planning goals. of new and low-cost on solutions aligned with a least-cost national electrification plan as KTH dESA and the World Bank have collected and processed well as financial and physical resources mobilized in a predictable the data on the various “layers” required to represent the present geospatial information and structured fashion, while allowing for uncertainty in security status of Afghanistan’s energy sector with as much accuracy as and tools greatly reduces conditions. possible given data constraints. Data were gathered for 2011–16 and the costs of mapping In the case of Afghanistan, a plan that relies solely on grid expan- are considered the best available as of December 2016. The layers resources and establishing sion (with coordinated investments in generation and transmission) populate a geodatabase available at https://energydata.info. The data can be expected to increase the rate of electrification only slowly, layers are: and maintaining geospatial particularly if donor financing for large infrastructure investment • Administrative boundaries datasets. becomes scarce. A systematic off-grid plan that is implemented • Population distribution and density concurrently with the grid-expansion plan would help ensure that • Nighttime light affordable, basic electricity services are made available to a wider • Land cover segment of the population. • Digital elevation Geospatial energy planning. Moving from planned, central- • Mini/small hydropower potential (with restrictions) ized, and expensive energy carriers toward fluctuating, decentralized, • Solar irradiation (with restrictions) and cost-effective renewable energy production necessitates consid- • Wind power capacity factor (with restrictions) erable modifications of energy infrastructure that must be carefully • Travel time to nearest town planned for optimal results. Because these modifications are most • Road network (existing and planned) often motivated by geospatial concerns, ground-level geospatial data • Transmission network (existing and planned) are of key importance in identifying the most effective electrification • Power plants (existing and planned) strategy. But acquiring energy-related data at the local level is a • Substations (existing and planned) challenging task. • Quarries and mines In 2017, the Division of Energy Systems Analysis of the KTH Royal Institute of Technology in Sweden (KTH dESA)1 took the electrifica- Identifying demand. Forecasting a population’s size and tion-planning process in Afghanistan one step further by building purchasing power is central to any least-cost electrification analysis a database of geospatial information and helping planners create because the number of people in a given area, and their income, are a modifiable least-cost electrification model. This model, known as key drivers of future demand for electricity and thus of the payback the Open Source Spatial Electrification Tool (OnSSET), estimates, period for capital investments. But estimating population growth is analyzes, and visualizes the most cost-effective electrification not a straightforward task. Changes in socioeconomic conditions options for the achievement of electricity access goals and “ensure make the estimation of future fertility and mortality rates, as well as migratory patterns, a complex task. 1 https://www.kth.se/en/itm/om/organisation/institutioner/energiteknik/forskningsavdeln- ingar/desa. A preview of this work can be found in Mentis and others (2015) and Fuso Nerini and others (2016). 2 UN Sustainable Development Goals: http://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/energy. 3 A G I S a p p r o a c h t o p l a n n i n g e l e c t r i f i c ati o n i n A f g h a n ista n Table 1. Indicative services that might be accessible to people, by annual electricity consumption tier Access level Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4 Tier 5 Indicative appliances Task lighting + phone General lighting + fan + Tier 2 + medium- Tier 3 + medium- Tier 4 + high-power powered charging or radio television power appliances power or continuous and continuous (e.g., food processing, appliances (e.g., water appliances refrigeration) heating, ironing, water (e.g., air conditioning) In Afghanistan, a plan pumping, rice cooking, that relies solely on grid microwave) Consumption per capita and 7.7 43.8 160.6 423.4 598.6 expansion can be expected year (kWh) to increase the rate of Consumption per urban 54 307 1,124 2,964 4,190 electrification only slowly. household and year in Afghanistan (based on A systematic off-grid average household size: 7) plan that is implemented Consumption per rural 62 355 1,301 3,430 4,849 household and year in concurrent with the Afghanistan (based on grid-expansion plan would average household size: 8.1) help ensure that affordable, Source: Adapted from IEA and World Bank 2015. basic electricity services are made available to a wider segment of the OnSSET uses five tiers for household electricity consumption, in urban centers such as Kabul (3,000 kWh per household) and Herat starting from very low to high (table 1). Urban population growth (2,600kWh per household). Interestingly, households not connected population. estimates are separated from rural, since these two groups usually to grid electricity seem to have access to some source of electricity, follow slightly different growth profiles. The lowest assumed mostly solar and batteries. This electricity is used primarily for lighting consumption allows no more than low-consumption tasks, such as or occasionally to power low-consumption household devices. turning on a light for a few hours or charging a mobile-phone. The Based on the Power Sector Master Plan estimates, the average highest consumption tier allows for energy services such as continu- annual electricity consumption in Afghanistan by 2030 will be ous lighting and running a refrigerator or air conditioner. approximately 1,500 kWh/household. Using this estimate, tier 5 Electricity access targets in Afghanistan. It is estimated (4,190 kWh/household) and tier 3 (1,301 kWh/household) were that approximately 29 percent of the Afghan population has access selected as base electricity access targets for urban and rural to the national electric grid, with the rate of access higher for urban households, respectively. households (approximately 88 percent) than for rural households Identifying supply. The objective of the electrification analysis (approximately 11 percent).3 The consumption of connected house- is to identify the most economic electricity supply mix that will allow holds varies significantly across provinces. For example, annual con- full electrification of Afghanistan by the end year (2030). Because sumption can range from as low as 178 kWh per household in Ghor every location has different characteristics, some of which might and 551 kWh/household in Laghman, to comparatively higher levels favor one technology over another, it is unlikely that using only one 3 The sources for the data presented in this section are ADB (2013), ANPDF (2016), CSO (2016), and Infrastructure Development Cluster (2012). 4 A G I S a p p r o a c h t o p l a n n i n g e l e c t r i f i c ati o n i n A f g h a n ista n Figure 1. Principal components and structure of OnSSET WorldPop, UN, World Bank, World Bank IEA Population Electricity access tiers Forecasting a population’s size and purchasing Electricity demand power is central to any least-cost electrification OSM, DABS, NASA, SRTM, JRC, Natural OSM, DABS, ADB GADM NASA Merra NASA Langley analysis and related ADB, USGS HydroSHEDS, JRC Earth, IEA capital plan. But estimating Existing and Power plants Small/mini- Wind Diesel cost of planned and Administrative Solar population growth is not transmission economic areas hydro capacity irradiance generating potential factor electricity network activities a straightforward task. Changes in socioeconomic Grid Mini-grid Stand-alone conditions make the estimation of future fertility Technology selection and mortality rates, as well as migratory patterns, a Optimal electrification split complex task. Source: KTH dESA. Note: ADB = Asian Development Bank; DABS = Da Afghanistan Breshna Sherkat; GADM = Global Administrative Areas; HydroSHEDS = Hydrological data and maps based on SHuttle Elevation Derivatives at multiple Scales; IEA = International Energy Agency; JRC = Joint Research Centre; OSM = Open Street Maps; Merra = Modern-era Retrospective Analysis; NASA SRTM = National Aeronautics and Space Administration Shuttle Radar Topography Mission; UN = United Nations; USGS = United States Geological Survey. technology could achieve this goal. The OnSSET methodology consid- represented using interactive maps, and they are also available in ers seven technological options. These are arranged into three main tabular format so as to facilitate further analysis. Figure 1 schemati- electrification categories: grid, mini-grid, and stand-alone systems. cally represents the main methodological processes of OnSSET. OnSSET uses the levelized cost of electricity calculated for each Generating scenarios. OnSSET makes it possible to investigate of the geospatial units and identifies which technology provides alternative pathways for electrification through the generation of access to electricity at the lowest cost. The levelized cost from a spe- scenarios. Thirty-two scenarios have been developed for Afghanistan cific source represents the final cost of the electricity required for the that consider variations in electricity consumption (a function of the overall system to break even over the project lifetime. OnSSET makes access target), diesel price, and grid cost (or cost of electricity)—the all these calculations and finds the lowest-cost option using data main input parameters considered in the construction of the relevant to a particular location for all the scenarios considered in scenarios. the exercise or defined by the modeler. The results can be graphically 5 A G I S a p p r o a c h t o p l a n n i n g e l e c t r i f i c ati o n i n A f g h a n ista n • Energy access target. The level of electricity to be provided may Restructuring the power sector in Afghanistan would require vary significantly from area to area. In this study, we consider significant investments in additional capacity and expansion of the two population groups: urban and rural. Since these populations transmission and distribution network. According to the National have different electricity needs, the level of effort needed for full Energy Supply Plan and the Power Sector Master Plan study, electrification also varies. To illustrate this, two sets of scenarios approximately 3,000 MW are planned to be added to the national According to the National were constructed. The first set assumes different access targets system by 2025 (ADB 2013; Infrastructure Development Cluster Energy Supply Plan and for urban and rural areas, while the second assumes the same 2012). This entails 2,500 MW from 13 hydropower projects, 400 MW access target for all settlements by 2030. from coal power plants in the Aynak and Hajigak mine sites, and 200 the Power Sector Master • Diesel price. Diesel generators are an established and reliable MW from Sheberghan. Solar and wind are additional sources with Plan study, approximately technology used for electrification, especially in remote areas high estimated potential (wind power is estimated at 158 GW) (ADB 3,000 MW are planned to but also as backup alternatives throughout Afghanistan. Despite 2013). The end goal is a robust and flexible power system able to be added to the national the low capital investment required up front, diesel generators effectively utilize the country’s abundant natural resources while also can entail high operating costs, depending on the fuel price. To enhancing interconnectivity with neighboring countries.4 system by 2025. This account for price fluctuation, scenarios were constructed with Three alternative paths were created to incorporate the govern- entails 2,500 MW from 13 low and high fuel price. One assumes that the price of diesel will ment’s plans into OnSSET. The first assumes that electricity imports hydropower projects and remain close to the current low levels (at about $0.69/liter), while will remain stable, with the additional capacity to come primarily 600 MW from coal power the second assumes an increase to $1/liter. from hydropower, coal, and natural-gas-fired power plants. Reduced plants. Solar and wind are • Price of electricity furnished by the national grid. use of diesel generators is also included. This would force the gener- Previous electrification efforts have shown that the expansion ating cost (used as an input in the model run) up to $0.077/kWh. The additional sources with of an electricity grid is a capital-intensive process. But because estimated capital investment requirement would be $1,970/kW. high estimated potential. of economies of scale in power generation, grid extension can The second path was developed to assess how the increased The end goal is a robust provide low electricity prices to the end user. The price at which penetration of renewable energy projects could affect the generating and flexible power system the electricity is produced is a critical consideration. OnSSET cost and therefore the output of OnSSET. It was assumed that does not distinguish between the different technologies in imports would remain the same, while 40 MW of solar and 26 MW able to effectively utilize the grid’s generation mix; instead, it sees the grid as a “black of wind would replace the oil-based generators. This would result in the country’s abundant box.” The national grid’s cost of generated electricity has been a lower generation cost of approximately $0.075/kWh but a higher natural resources estimated based on a review of relevant literature and the capital investment requirement ($1,989/kW). while also enhancing development plans elaborated by the Afghan government. In The third path was developed to illustrate how the grid electricity 2015, the installed capacity in operation in Afghanistan was 520.7 cost would react if more imports were needed to cover the expected interconnectivity with megawatts (MW), generating approximately 1,093 gigawatt-hours demand. To illustrate that, the planned domestic generation capacity neighboring countries. (GWh). Domestic electricity production relied mainly on hydro- was kept below 3,000 MW and imports were increased. The grid cost power, oil, and natural gas and accounted for 23.8 percent of the in this scenario was estimated at $0.075/kWh, with lower capital total consumption, while the rest of the demand was covered investment requirements than in the previous cases ($1,603/kW). by imports. The country imports approximately 3,500 GWh from Uzbekistan (57 percent), Iran (22 percent), Turkmenistan (17 percent), and Tajikistan (4 percent) (ADB 2013; Infrastructure Development Cluster 2012; Shift Project Data Portal 2015). Based on this mix, the cost of generation was estimated at approxi- mately $0.062/kWh. 4 Interconnectivity is provided under the Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan-Tajikistan-Afghani- stan-Pakistan (TUTAP) electricity project; the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan India (TAPI) gas pipeline; and the Central Asia South Asia Electricity Transmission and Trade Project (CASA). 6 A G I S a p p r o a c h t o p l a n n i n g e l e c t r i f i c ati o n i n A f g h a n ista n Table 2. Grid cost ($/kWh) under 32 electrification scenarios investigated for Afghanistan, by diesel price and electricity consumption tier Twelve selected scenarios (highlighted in green) are discussed in the text Urban and rural electricity consumption tier and average weighted household consumption KTH dESA has developed Diesel price U4–R4 U5–R3 U4–R2 U3–R3 an online open interface ($/L) (3,247 kWh/year) (2,433 kWh/year) (1,378 kWh/year) (1,232 kWh/year) to support the use of 0.69 0.062 0.062 0.062 0.062 the Open Source Spatial 0.69 0.077 0.077 0.077 0.077 Low Electrification Tool (OnSSET) 0.69 0.075 RE 0.075 RE 0.075 RE 0.075 RE by professionals without 0.69 0.075 IM 0.075 IM 0.075 IM 0.075 IM 1 0.062 0.062 0.062 0.062 experience in the use of 1 0.077 0.077 0.077 0.077 High geospatial software. The 1 0.075 RE 0.075 RE 0.075 RE 0.075 RE interface allows the user to 1 0.075 IM 0.075 IM 0.075 IM 0.075 IM conduct an electrification Source: KTH dESA. analysis of a selected Note: RE refers to increased penetration of renewable-based technologies; IM refers to increased imports from neighboring countries. country, based on key input parameters (energy How can the geospatial tool OnSSET help planners? Figures 2, 3, and 4 provide a quick overview of some of the access targets, population results for the 12 selected scenarios. The graphs allow for quantita- characteristics, technology OnSSET is a user-friendly online interface that helps tive comparisons of the implications of each scenario for technology costs, and so on). The planners decide whether a grid connection is the best share, added capacity, and investment requirements. results can be visualized option under various circumstances OnSSET yields two comma-separated-value files as an output for each scenario. The first file contains the information acquired quickly in an embedded To summarize, KTH dESA has developed an online open interface to from the electrification analysis for every settlement in the country support the use of OnSSET by professionals without experience in map that show at a glance according to the specified resolution (in this case 1x1 km). This file the use of geospatial software. The interface allows the user to con- the most cost-effective is used to retrieve location-specific information and to display the duct an electrification analysis of a selected country, based on key electrification pathways. results on detailed maps. The second file contains the summarized input parameters (energy access targets, population characteristics, results for the scenario, providing information about the total capac- technology costs, and so on). The results can be visualized quickly ity needed, by technology, and the relative investment level required in an embedded map that show at a glance the most cost-effective to achieve the electrification target.5 electrification pathways. This interface is accessible at OnSSET.org, and the only requirement for its use is a stable Internet connection. As noted, 32 scenarios have been created for Afghanistan (table 2). Twelve of them, shaded in the table, are presented here to illustrate OnSSET’s capabilities. 5 The files for all the scenarios developed for Afghanistan are available at the following link: https://energydata.info. 7 A G I S a p p r o a c h t o p l a n n i n g e l e c t r i f i c ati o n i n A f g h a n ista n Figure 2. Newly electrified population, by technology Grid connected Stand-alone diesel Stand-alone PV Mini-grid wind Mini-grid diesel Mini-grid PV Mini-grid hydro 35 30 Assuming a midrange Population (millions) 25 electricity consumption 20 per household makes grid 15 connection a more viable 10 option (to the detriment of 5 stand-alone options). 0 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Scenario 6 Scenario 7 Scenario 8 Scenario 9 Scenario 10 Scenario 11 Scenario 12 Consumption tier U4–R4 U4–R4 U5– R3 U5–R3 U5–R3 U5–R3 U3–R3 U3–R3 U3–R3 U4–R2 U4–R2 U4–R2 Diesel price ($/L) LD HD LD HD HD HD LD HD HD LD HD HD Grid cost ($/kWh) 0.75RE 0.077 0.077 0.077 0.75RE 0.75IM 0.75RE 0.077 0.75IM 0.75IM 0.077 0.75IM U = urban; R = rural Source: KTH dESA. Note: Ux–Rx refers to the electrification tier for urban and rural settlements, respectively; RE refers to the scenario with increased penetration of renewable-based technologies (solar, wind); IM refers to the alternative path with increased imports from neighboring countries. kWh = kilowatt-hours; LD = low diesel price; HD = high diesel price. Figure 3. New capacity required, by system type Grid Mini-grid Stand-alone 6 5 4 GW 3 2 1 0 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Scenario 6 Scenario 7 Scenario 8 Scenario 9 Scenario 10 Scenario 11 Scenario 12 Consumption tier U4–R4 U4–R4 U5– R3 U5–R3 U5–R3 U5–R3 U3–R3 U3–R3 U3–R3 U4–R2 U4–R2 U4–R2 Diesel price ($/L) LD HD LD HD HD HD LD HD HD LD HD HD Grid cost ($/kWh) 0.75RE 0.077 0.077 0.077 0.75RE 0.75IM 0.75RE 0.077 0.75IM 0.75IM 0.077 0.75IM U = urban; R = rural Source: KTH dESA. Note: Ux–Rx refers to the electrification tier for urban and rural settlements, respectively; RE refers to the scenario with increased penetration of renewable-based technologies (solar, wind); IM refers to the alternative path with increased imports from neighboring countries. kWh = kilowatt-hours; LD = low diesel price; HD = high diesel price. 8 A G I S a p p r o a c h t o p l a n n i n g e l e c t r i f i c ati o n i n A f g h a n ista n Figure 4. Investment required, by system type Grid Mini-grid Stand-alone 30 25 Assuming high consumption levels 20 Billion US$ furthers the viability of 15 increasing connections 10 to the central grid; 5 but, interestingly, high 0 consumption levels imply Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Scenario 6 Scenario 7 Scenario 8 Scenario 9 Scenario 10 Scenario 11 Scenario 12 Consumption tier U4–R4 U4–R4 U5– R3 U5–R3 U5–R3 U5–R3 U3–R3 U3–R3 U3–R3 U4–R2 U4–R2 U4–R2 that mini-grids become Diesel price ($/L) Grid cost ($/kWh) LD 0.75RE HD 0.077 LD 0.077 HD 0.077 HD 0.75RE HD 0.75IM LD 0.75RE HD 0.077 HD 0.75IM LD 0.75IM HD 0.077 HD 0.75IM an economically attractive U = urban; R = rural option and replace stand- Source: KTH dESA. Note: Ux–Rx refers to the electrification tier for urban and rural settlements, respectively; RE refers to the scenario with increased penetration of renewable-based technologies alone technologies in many (solar, wind); IM refers to the alternative path with increased imports from neighboring countries. kWh = kilowatt-hours; LD = low diesel price; HD = high diesel price. settlements. The maps, three samples of which are shown in figure 5, allow interestingly, high consumption levels imply that mini-grids become for qualitative comparisons of the parameters that most influence an economically attractive option and replace stand-alone technolo- the penetration of different technologies in the generation mix. gies in many settlements. OnSSET results clearly show that the assumed level of electricity The cost of ensuring access to electricity for all Afghanis by 2030 demand per household in the settlements in each of the GIS cells is lies between $7.82 billion and $26.04 billion. These figures include an important factor determining which technology offers the lowest the up-front capital investments needed to extend the transmission cost. At the lowest consumption levels, most population settlements and distribution network, build the mini-grid systems, and install close to already-electrified villages and transmission lines will find the stand-alone solar and diesel technologies. The model finds that that connecting to the central electricity grid is the lowest-cost between 55 and 73 percent of the population may be receiving option. Elsewhere, most settlements will find that stand-alone electricity through off-grid technologies. systems are the most economical option (with PV panels a better The lower a household’s electricity consumption and the lower option than diesel gensets, especially when diesel prices are high). the diesel price, the lower the overall investment needed to reach At this low level of consumption, mini-grids play only a minor role. universal access. The lowest-cost investment ticket for providing Assuming a midrange electricity consumption per household universal access corresponds to the case where consumption is makes grid connection a more viable option (to the detriment of assumed to be lowest (tier 4 for urban, tier 2 for rural), and the diesel stand-alone options). Assuming high consumption levels furthers price is low. The highest ticket corresponds to the highest household the viability of increasing connections to the central grid; but, consumption (tier 4 for urban, tier 4 for rural) at a high diesel price. 9 A G I S a p p r o a c h t o p l a n n i n g e l e c t r i f i c ati o n i n A f g h a n ista n Figure 5. Summarized results a. Scenario 1: U4–R4, LD, 0.075 RE b. Scenario 8: U3–R3, HD, 0.077 c. Scenario 10: U4–R2, LD, 0.075 IM The cost of ensuring access to electricity for all Afghanis by 2030 lies between $7.82 billion and $26.04 billion. These figures include the up-front capital investments needed to extend the transmission Grid Diesel mini-grid Hydro mini-grid PV mini-grid Wind mini-grid Diesel stand-alone PV stand-alone and distribution network, build the mini-grid systems, Source: KTH dESA. Note: Ux–Rx refers to the electrification tier for urban and rural settlements, respectively (see table 1); RE refers to the alternative path with increased penetration of and install the stand- renewable-based technologies (solar, wind); IM refers to the alternative path with increased imports from neighboring countries. LD = low diesel price; HD = high diesel price. alone solar and diesel technologies. The role of renewables critically depends on the price of diesel. • The breakdown of the generation mix used to consider different When diesel prices are low, renewable sources will be used to grid electrification costs is not detailed. It would be necessary provide electricity to an average of 51 percent of the population. to link OnSSET with OSeMOSYS (Open Source Energy Modelling However, increasing the price of diesel to $1/liter also increases the System) to obtain the optimal generation mix based on the average contribution of renewable sources. country’s resources, demand, and trade with other countries. • Another critical issue is the various resolutions of the datasets Caveats? used. For example, population density data are given at 1 km while the wind speed is at 5 km. The datasets need to be Like most open source models, OnSSET is a work harmonized to ensure better accuracy. in progress, especially as new satellite imagery • The analysis considers only household electrification. Other and GIS data become available productive uses of electricity (such as in health services, schools, rural enterprises, agriculture and so on) should also be consid- The current analysis has several limitations, which may be overcome ered. These would increase the demand levels and therefore as follows: impact the electrification mix. • The electrification mix is shown only for the end year (here 2030). Thus, the electrification mix and status in the intervening years A final word of caution: The model quantifies electrification (that is, today through 2030) are not considered. To include the targets for Afghanistan by 2030. It highlights the challenges ahead whole period, it would be necessary to decide which areas need for policy and decision makers charged with implementing energy to be electrified in what order. 10 A G I S a p p r o a c h t o p l a n n i n g e l e c t r i f i c ati o n i n A f g h a n ista n strategies to achieve access targets, allows an analysis of trade-offs Korkovelos, A., M. Bazilian, D. Mentis, and M. Howells. 2017. “A GIS MAKE FURTHER between competing demands for financial resources, and thus Approach to Planning Electrification in Afghanistan.” Afghanistan CONNECTIONS supports the prudent prioritization of available financial resources. Energy Study: Work Package 4. World Bank, Washington, DC. But it does not imply the implementation of the identified strategies Mentis, Dimitrios, Manuel Welsch, Francesco Fuso Nerini, Oliver Live Wire 2014/17. “Incorporating or the provision of necessary finance. Broad, Mark Howells, Morgan Bazilian, and Holger Rogner. 2015. 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Jordan. 2016. “National Infrastructure Plan, 2017–2021.” ANPDF, Development Goals. http://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/ Afghanistan. energy. Live Wire 2015/43. “Integrating CSO (Central Statistical Office). 2016. “Afghanistan Living Conditions Climate Model Data into Power Survey 2013–14: National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment.” The study from which this Live Wire was drawn benefited from comments and System Planning,” by Debabrata Kabul. suggestions from Fanny Missfeldt-Ringius, Walker Bradley, and Niki Angelou, Chattopadhyay and Rhonda L. Fuso Nerini, Francesco, Oliver Broad, Dimitris Mentis, Manuel Welsch, all of the World Bank. Several Afghan GIS experts from the intergovernmental Jordan. Morgan Bazilian, and Mark Howells. 2016. “A Cost Comparison working group of the Afghanistan Energy Study helped in calibrating OnSSET of Technology Approaches for Improving Access to Electricity and validating the study’s results. The financial and technical support of the Live Wire 2017/73. “Forecasting Services.” Energy 95 (January): 255–65. http://www.sciencedirect. Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) and Australian Aid Electricity Demand: An Aid for com/science/article/pii/S036054421501631X. are gratefully acknowledged. Practitioners,” by Jevgenijs IEA (International Energy Agency) and World Bank. 2015. Global Steinbuks, Joeri de Wit, Artur Tracking Framework. World Bank, Washington, DC. Kochnakyan, and Vivien Foster. Infrastructure Development Cluster. 2012. “National Energy Supply Programme (NESP).” Ministry of Finance, Government of Live Wire 2017/81. “The Effects Afghanistan. of Carbon Limits on Electricity Generation and Coal Production: An Integrated Planning Approach Applied to Poland,” by Debabrata Chattopadhyay, Jacek Filipowski, Michael Stanley, and Samuel Oguah. Live Wire 2017/86. “Data as an Enabler in the Off-Grid Sector: Focus on Tanzania,” by Christopher Arderne, Yann Tanvez, and Pepukaye Bardouille. Get Connected to Live Wire Live Wires are designed for easy reading on the screen and for downloading The Live Wire series of online knowledge notes is an initiative of the World Bank Group’s Energy and self-printing in color or “Live Wire is designed and Extractives Global Practice, reflecting the emphasis on knowledge management and solu- black and white. tions-oriented knowledge that is emerging from the ongoing change process within the Bank for practitioners inside Group. For World Bank employees: and outside the Bank. 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Once a year, the Energy and Extractives Global Practice takes stock of all notes that appeared, reviewing their quality and identifying priority areas to be covered in the following year’s pipeline. Please visit our Live Wire web page for updates: http://www.worldbank.org/energy/livewire e Pa c i f i c 2014/28 ainable energy for all in easT asia and Th 1 Tracking Progress Toward Providing susT TIVES GLOBAL PRACTICE A KNOWLEDGE NOTE SERIES FOR THE ENERGY & EXTRAC THE BOTTOM LINE Tracking Progress Toward Providing Sustainable Energy where does the region stand on the quest for sustainable for All in East Asia and the Pacific 2014/29 and cenTral asia energy for all? in 2010, eaP easTern euroPe sT ainable en ergy for all in databases—technical measures. This note is based on that frame- g su v i d i n had an electrification rate of Why is this important? ess Toward Pro work (World Bank 2014). SE4ALL will publish an updated version of 1 Tracking Progr 95 percent, and 52 percent of the population had access Tracking regional trends is critical to monitoring the GTF in 2015. to nonsolid fuel for cooking. the progress of the Sustainable Energy for All The primary indicators and data sources that the GTF uses to track progress toward the three SE4ALL goals are summarized below. consumption of renewable (SE4ALL) initiative C T I V E S G L O B A L P R A C T I C E ENERGY & EXTRA • Energy access. Access to modern energy services is measured T E S E R I E S F O R T H EIn declaring 2012 the “International Year of Sustainable Energy for energy decreased overall A KNO W L E D G E N Oand 2010, though by the percentage of the population with an electricity between 1990 All,” the UN General Assembly established three objectives to be connection and the percentage of the population with access Energy modern forms grew rapidly. d Providing Sustainable accomplished by 2030: to ensure universal access to modern energy energy intensity levels are high to nonsolid fuels.2 These data are collected using household Tracking Progress Towar services,1 to double the 2010 share of renewable energy in the global surveys and reported in the World Bank’s Global Electrification but declining rapidly. overall THE BOTTOM LINE energy mix, and to double the global rate of improvement in energy e and Central Asia trends are positive, but bold Database and the World Health Organization’s Household Energy for All in Eastern Europ efficiency relative to the period 1990–2010 (SE4ALL 2012). stand policy measures will be required where does the region setting Database. The SE4ALL objectives are global, with individual countries on that frame- on the quest for sustainable to sustain progress. is based share of renewable energy in the their own national targets databases— technical in a measures. way that is Thisconsistent with the overall of • Renewable energy. The note version energy for all? The region SE4ALL will publish an updated their ability energy mix is measured by the percentage of total final energy to Why is this important ? spirit of the work initiative. (World Bank Because2014). countries differ greatly in has near-universal access consumption that is derived from renewable energy resources. of trends is critical to monitoring to pursue thetheGTF in 2015. three objectives, some will make more rapid progress GTF uses to Data used to calculate this indicator are obtained from energy electricity, and 93 percent Tracking regional othersindicators primary will excel and data sources that elsewhere, depending on their the while the population has access le Energy for All in one areaThe goals are summarized below. balances published by the International Energy Agency and the the progress of the Sustainab respective track starting progress pointstowardand the three SE4ALL comparative advantages as well as on services is measured to nonsolid fuel for cooking. access. Accessthat they modern to are able to energy marshal. United Nations. despite relatively abundant (SE4ALL) initiative the resources and support Energy with an electricity connection Elisa Portale is an l Year of Sustainable Energy for To sustain percentage of by the momentum forthe the population achievement of the SE4ALL 2• Energy efficiency. The rate of improvement of energy efficiency hydropower, the share In declaring 2012 the “Internationa energy economist in with access to nonsolid fuels. three global objectives objectives, andathe means of charting percentage of the population global progress to 2030 is needed. is approximated by the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of renewables in energy All,” the UN General Assembly established the Energy Sector surveys and reported access to modern universalAssistance The World TheseBank and data are the collected International using household Energy Agency led a consor- of energy intensity, where energy intensity is the ratio of total consumption has remained to be accomplished by 2030: to ensure Management Database and the World of theenergy intium of 15 renewable international in the World Bank’s Global agencies toElectrification establish the SE4ALL Global primary energy consumption to gross domestic product (GDP) energy the 2010 share of Program (ESMAP) relatively low. very high energy services, to double Database. measured in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms. Data used to 1 t ’s Household provides Energy a system for regular World Bank’s Energy the global rate of improvemen and Extractives Tracking Framework Health (GTF), which Organization in the energy intensity levels have come and to double the global energy mix, Global Practice. (SE4ALL 2012). based on energy. of renewable The sharepractical, rigorous—yet energy given available calculate energy intensity are obtained from energy balances to the period 1990–2010 global reporting, Renewable down rapidly. The big questions in energy efficiency relative setting by the percentage of total final energy consumption published by the International Energy Agency and the United evolve Joeri withde Wit is an countries individual mix is measured Data used to are how renewables will The SE4ALL objectives are global, economist in with the overall from renewable energy when every resources. person on the planet has access Nations. picks up a way energy that is consistent 1 The universal derived that isaccess goal will be achieved balances published when energy demand in from energy their own national targets through electricity, clean cooking fuels, clean heating fuels, rates the Bank’s Energy and countries differ greatly in their ability calculate this indicator are obtained to modern energy services provided productive use and community services. The term “modern solutions” cookingNations. again and whether recent spirit of the initiative. Because Extractives Global rapid progress and energy for Energy Agency and the United liquefied petroleum gas), 2 Solid fuels are defined to include both traditional biomass (wood, charcoal, agricultural will make more by the refers to solutions International that involve electricity or gaseous fuels (including is pellets and briquettes), and of decline in energy intensity some t of those of efficiency energy and forest residues, dung, and so on), processed biomass (such as to pursue the three objectives, Practice. depending on their or solid/liquid fuels paired with Energy efficiency. The rate stoves exhibiting of overall improvemen emissions rates at or near other solid fuels (such as coal and lignite). will excel elsewhere, rate (CAGR) of energy will continue. in one area while others liquefied petroleum gas (www.sustainableenergyforall.org). annual growth as well as on approximated by the compound and comparative advantages is the ratio of total primary energy respective starting points marshal. where energy intensity that they are able to intensity, measured in purchas- the resources and support domestic product (GDP) for the achievement of the SE4ALL consumption to gross calculate energy intensity Elisa Portale is an To sustain momentum terms. Data used to charting global progress to 2030 is needed. ing power parity (PPP) the International energy economist in objectives, a means of balances published by the Energy Sector International Energy Agency led a consor- are obtained from energy The World Bank and the SE4ALL Global Energy Agency and the United Nations. Management Assistance agencies to establish the the GTF to provide a regional and tium of 15 international for regular This note uses data from Program (ESMAP) of the which provides a system for Eastern Tracking Framework (GTF), the three pillars of SE4ALL World Bank’s Energy and Extractives on rigorous—yet practical, given available country perspective on Global Practice. global reporting, based has access Joeri de Wit is an will be achieved when every person on the planet The universal access goal heating fuels, clean cooking fuels, clean energy economist in 1 agricultural provided through electricity, biomass (wood, charcoal, to modern energy services The term “modern cooking solutions” to include both traditional and briquettes), and Solid fuels are defined the Bank’s Energy and use and community services. biomass (such as pellets 2 and energy for productive petroleum gas), and so on), processed fuels (including liquefied and forest residues, dung, involve electricity or gaseous at or near those of Extractives Global refers to solutions that overall emissions rates other solid fuels (such as coal and lignite). with stoves exhibiting Practice. or solid/liquid fuels paired (www.sustainableenergyforall.org). liquefied petroleum gas Contribute to If you can’t spare the time to contribute to Live Wire, but have an idea for a topic, or case we should cover, let us know! Do you have something to say? We welcome your ideas through any of the following Say it in Live Wire! channels: Via the Communities of Those working on the front lines of energy and extractives development in emerging economies Practice in which you are have a wealth of technical knowledge and case experience to share with their colleagues but active seldom have the time to write for publication. By participating in the Energy Live Wire offers prospective authors a support system to make sharing your knowledge as easy as and Extractives Global possible: Practice’s annual Live Wire • Trained writers among our staff will be assigned upon request to draft Live Wire stories with series review meeting staff active in operations. • A professional series editor ensures that the writing is punchy and accessible. By communicating directly • A professional graphic designer assures that the final product looks great—a feather in your cap! with the team (contact Morgan Bazilian, mbazilian@ Live Wire aims to raise the profile of operational staff wherever they are based; those with worldbank.org) hands-on knowledge to share. That’s your payoff! It’s a chance to model good “knowledge citizenship” and participate in the ongoing change process at the Bank, uroPe and cenT ral asia 2014/29 all in easTern e ble energy for v i d i n g s u s Ta i n a where knowledge management is becoming everybody’s business. ess Toward Pro 1 Tracking Progr TICE IVES GLOBAL PRAC ENERGY & EXTRACT E SERIES FOR THE A KNOWLEDGE NOT rgy Providing Sustainable Ene Tracking Progress Toward Or 2014/5 1 U n d e r s ta n d i n g C O 2 emissiOns frOm the glObal energy seCt THE BOTTOM LINE ern Euro pe and Cen tral Asia where does the region stand ble for All in East based on that frame- on the quest for sustaina measures. This note is databases—technical updated version of energy for all? The region SE4ALL will publish an has near-universal access to WhyD is this important? ERGY PRACTICE work (World Bank 2014). E G E N O T E S E R I E S F O R T H E E N to of A K N O W L is critical monitoring the GTF in 2015. that the GTF uses to electricity, and 93 percent Tracking regional trends for All The primary indicators and data sources below. goals are summarized the population has access the progres s of the Sustainable Energy progress toward the three SE4ALL Understanding CO Emissions from the Global Energy Sector nonsolid fuel for cooking. track is measured to modern energy services THE BOTTOM LINE to Your Name Here t (SE4ALL) initiativ e Energy access. Access connection despite relatively abundan 2 population with an electricity the share “Internat ional Year of Sustainable Energy for by the percentage of the access to nonsolid fuels.2 hydropow the energy sector contributes er, In declaring 2012 the the population with objectives and the percentage of of renewables in energy established three global and reported about 40 percent of global All,” the UN General Assembly access to modern using household surveys Why is this issue important? 2030: to ensure universal These data are collected and the World Become an author has remained emissions of CO2. three- consumption to be accomplished by in in the World Bank’s Global Electrification Database high energy double the 2010 knowledge share of renewable energy of the Database. relatively low. very Mitigating climate change energy requires services, to 1 quarters of those emissions ent Household Energy rate of improvem global Figure 1. CO2 emissions Health Organiza Figure tion’s 2. energy-related CO2 energy come from six major intensity levels have come energy mix, and to double the share of renewable energy in the of CO s2 emissions sources the global 0 (SE4ALL 2012). Renewab le energy. The question to the period 1990–201 by sector emissions by country consumption down rapidly. The big economies. although coal-fired in energy efficiency relative setting d by the percenta ge of total final energy of Live Wire and countries global, with individual mix is measure lics evolve les will opportunities to cut emissions of greenhouse aregases used to plants account for just are how renewab Identifying The SE4ALL objectives le energy resources. Data 0.5% picks up understanding of the main sources ofin those a way that is consistent with emis- the overall that is derived from renewab balances published 40 percent of world energy when energy demand requires a clear their own national targets in their ability other this indicator are obtained from energy 80 percent of differ greatly residential calculate production, they were again and whether Carbonrates sions.recent dioxide (CO2) accounts for more than spirit of the initiative. Because countries 6% sectors other Mics Agency and the United Nations. will make more rapid progress by the International Energy china 10% 15% intensity gas emissions globally, 1 primarily from the burning s, some efficiency is contribute to your responsible for more than of decline in energy total greenhouse to pursue the three objective on their other Hics . The rate of improvement of energy energy sector—defined toexcel elsewhere, depending include Energy efficiency 30% growth rate (CAGR) of energy will continue. of fossil fuels (IFCC 2007). The will 8% in one area while others by the compound annual energy 70 percent of energy-sector as well as on 41% approxim and heat generation—contributed and compara tive advantages 41 ated Japan 4% energy the ratio of total primary industry emissions in 2010. despite fuels consumed for electricity respective starting points 20% russia energy intensity is of global CO emissions in 2010 (figure 1). Energy-related that they are able to marshal. intensity, where measure d in purchas- improvements in some percent 2 the resources and support 7% usa product (GDP) gross domestic practice and career! an at the point of combustion make up the m bulk for the such of achievem ent of the SE4ALL other consumption to india 19% calculate energy intensity countries, the global CO2 CO Elisa 2 emissions Portale is To sustain momentu transport road 7% eu terms. Data used to andin are generated by the burning of fossil is needed. global progress to 2030 6% transport fuels, industrial ing power parity (PPP) the International economist objectives, a means of charting balances published by emissions 11% emission factor for energy energy 16% EnergyandSector nonrenewable municipal waste to generate nal Energy Agency led electricity Internatio a consor- are obtained from energy The World Bank and the the waste, generation has hardly changed United Nations. ent Assistance venting and leakage to establish the emissions SE4ALL Global Energy Agency and the sector at the point and over the last 20 years. and heat. Black carbon and methane Managem tium of 15 international agencies Notes: Energy-related CO2 emissions are CO2 emissions from the energy from the GTF to provide a regional of the for regular This note usesanddata domestic provides a system bunkers, Program (ESMAP) presented in this note. of combustion. Other Transport includes international marine aviation for Eastern are not included in the analysis and Extractives Tracking Framework (GTF), which given aviation and available navigation, Other Sectors rail and pipeline transport; perspect include ive on the three pillars of SE4ALL commercial/public World Bank’s Energy on rigorous—yet practical, country and heat genera- global reporting, based services, agriculture/forestry, fishing, energy industries other than electricity Global Practice. not specified elsewhere; Energy = fuels consumed for electricity and Where do emissions come from? tion, and other emissions as has in the opening paragraph. HIC, MIC, and LIC refer to high-, middle-, access Joeri de Wit is an will be achieved when on the planet heat generation, every person defined The universal access goal of countries heating fuels, energy economistare Emissions concentrated in 1 in a handful to modern energy services provided through electricity, fuels, clean and low-income clean cooking countries. cooking solutions” to include both traditional biomass (wood, charcoal, agricultural The term “modern Source: IEA 2012a. Solid fuels are defined and briquettes), and the Bank’s Energy and use and community services. biomass (such as pellets 2 and come primarily from burning and energy coal for productive that involve electricity or gaseous fuels (including liquefied petroleum gas), near those of and forest residues, dung, and so on), processed Vivien Foster is sector Extractives Global refers to solutions overall emissions rates at or other solid fuels (such as coal and lignite). with stoves exhibiting or solid/liquid fuels paired emissions closely manager for the Sus- The geographical pattern of energy-related CO Practice. gas 2(www.sustainableenergy forall.org). liquefied petroleum middle-income countries, and only 0.5 percent by all low-income tainable Energy Depart- mirrors the distribution of energy consumption (figure 2). In 2010, ment at the World Bank countries put together. almost half of all such emissions were associated with the two (vfoster@worldbank.org). Coal is, by far, the largest source of energy-related CO2 emissions largest global energy consumers, and more than three-quarters globally, accounting for more than 70 percent of the total (figure 3). Daron Bedrosyan were associated with the top six emitting countries. Of the remaining works for London This reflects both the widespread use of coal to generate electrical energy-related CO2 emissions, about 8 percent were contributed Economics in Toronto. power, as well as the exceptionally high CO2 intensity of coal-fired by other high-income countries, another 15 percent by other Previously, he was an power (figure 4). Per unit of energy produced, coal emits significantly energy analyst with the more CO emissions than oil and more than twice as much as natural 2 World Bank’s Energy Practice. Gas Inventory 1 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Greenhouse 0.php gas. Data—Comparisons By Gas (database). http://unfccc.int/ghg_data/items/380