68546 VIETNAM URBAN BRIEFS – DISASTER RISKS IN THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT May 1, 2012 The growing challenge of natural disasters to In addition, climate change is likely to increase the urban development compounding impact of disasters, especially the Vietnam has achieved remarkable economic frequency, severity, and intensity of the hydro- growth since the Doi Moi reforms beginning in meteorological events. Many of Vietnam's cities 1986. The reform process also marks the growth are likely to be increasingly affected by natural of Vietnam’s urban population. With 30 percent of disasters. This poses a serious challenge not only its population living in urban areas and a 3.4 because of the large concentrations of people and percent urban population growth rate per year, assets in urban areas but also because cities are a the World Bank “Vietnam Urbanization Review� critical element of Vietnam’s impressive economic (2012) indicates that Vietnam is moving towards a growth and its poverty-reduction record. rapid urbanization stage marked by economic transformation based on industrial manufacturing. National Policies and Institutional Framework Urbanization can be a positive force for Vietnam is a one of the most disaster-prone development, however, rapid and unplanned countries in the Asia-Pacific region, exposed to urbanization can put more people and more assets multiple natural disasters including tropical into harm’s way. Recent population growth cyclones, floods and inundations, landslides, and exposes some 70 percent of the population to risks droughts. In view of its exposure to these hazards, from multiple natural hazards. Over the past the Government of Vietnam - working closely with twenty years, natural disasters have resulted in stakeholders and institutions - is strengthening its the loss of over 12,800 lives and annual damage disaster risk management (DRM) agenda. equivalent to an average 1%-1.5% of GDP. The National Strategy for Natural Disaster Prevention, Response and Mitigation to 2020, and the National Target Program (NTP) form the overarching policy framework for disaster risk management and climate change adaptation activities. They are complemented by other dedicated decrees and laws. The Ministry of Natural Resource and the Environment (MONRE) is the leading agency for climate and weather forecasts, and climate change coordination and land use in Vietnam, while the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) maintains overall responsibility for natural disaster mitigation and response. In addition, the Ministry of Construction maintains responsibility of drainage systems and major public works in urban areas.. Integrated Flood Risk Management Tropical cyclones and floods are the most frequently occurring natural hazard causing severe damage to Vietnam’s cities. The recently published World Bank flagship report “Cities and Flooding: A Guide to Integrated Urban Flood Risk Management for the 21 Century� (2012) provides technical advice and operational guidance on how to prepare for and manage urban floods. The report argues in favor of an integrated approach to Source: based on EM-DAT/CRED urban flood risk management, which is a risk- World Bank Vietnam No. 2 Page 1 VIETNAM URBAN BRIEFS – DISASTER RISKS IN THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT May 1, 2012 based approach, relying on a balance between of flood to the Vietnam’s in-land cities like Hanoi structural and non-structural measures. and Can Tho, whereas in coastal cities, such as Hai Integrated flood risk management is a forward- Phong, Nha Trang, and Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), looking approach holistic in scope, strategic in flooding is caused by a combination of the three content and collaborative in nature. It offers water sources, including heavy rainfall, high water concrete recommendations for cities facing the river level, and storm surge or sea level rise. increasing challenge of flooding. Below is list of twelve key guiding principles. This brief focuses It is equally important to understand the exposure on a number of them. and vulnerability of the people and their assets, especially the spatial and structural risks of the Guiding Principles for an Integrated Urban Risk settlements – existing or under development. Management Unplanned urbanization, future risks and climate change add a level of uncertainty to the decision- 1. Every flood risk scenario is different: there is no flood making process which has to be taken into account management blueprint. 2. Designs for flood management must be able to cope when preparing flood mitigation measures. with a changing and uncertain future. 3. Rapid urbanization requires the integration of flood risk management into regular urban planning and governance. 4. An integrated strategy requires the use of both structural and non-structural measures and good metrics for “getting the balance right�. 5. Heavily engineered structural measures can transfer risk upstream and downstream. 6. It is impossible to entirely eliminate the risk from flooding. 7. Many flood management measures have multiple co- benefits over and above their flood management role. 8. It is important to consider the wider social and ecological consequences of flood management spending. 9. Clarity of responsibility for constructing and running flood risk programs is critical. 10. Implementing flood risk management measures requires multi-stakeholder cooperation. 11. Continuous communication to raise awareness and reinforce preparedness is necessary. For instance, analyses of recent floods in Ho Chi 12. Plan to recover quickly after flooding and use the recovery to build capacity. Minh City suggest that flooding may be exacerbated by rapid development, which has Source: World Bank (2012) “Cities and Flooding: A Guide to Integrated Urban Flood Risk Management for the 21 Century.� affected soil permeability and created a greater burden on the drainage system. However, the Understanding risks in urban development projection of future urban population growth has While it is impossible to entirely eliminate the risk associated uncertainties in the scale and spatial of flooding, in order to better manage the impact distribution of populations. Equally, the impact of of flood events, limit the damage, and facilitate the future urban growth on flood risk is influenced by recovery process, it is crucial for decision-makers the policies and choices of urban dwellers as they to understand the causes and risks of flood hazard may or may not occupy areas at risk of flooding, or that can affect their population. For example, the adopt more suitable urban planning and design. combination of heavy rainfall and high water levels along the river is the most important cause World Bank Vietnam No. 2 Page 2 VIETNAM URBAN BRIEFS – DISASTER RISKS IN THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT May 1, 2012 Adapted from World Bank (2012) “Cities and Flooding. A Guide to Integrated Urban Flood Risk Management for the 21 Century.� The figure below depicts the investment plan for the Bun Xang Lake in Can Tho City. The plan aims to enhance the role of the lake to function as a Robust decision-making water reservoir which can be used for “peak- Rather than trying to find the optimal flood shaving� intense rain fall events. This way, the protection solution, cities ought to adopt a robust burden on the drainage and sewerage system is approach to uncertainty and unknown risks which reduced and more time is allowed to discharge the incorporates a greater degree of flexibility into the volumes of rainfall. The investment builds mitigation designs of engineered measures, and resilience towards climate change and sea level takes into account potential weak spots and rise. In addition, it aims to improve water quality failure. This approach can help cities avoid being and the environment as a green space amenity. “locked in� financing large-scale investments that might prove obsolete with change in future risks. As a city develops, large-scale flood protection schemes often face new challenges even before they are completed, as for example in Ho Chi Minh City where the 2001 Master Plan to mitigate flooding through improved drainage had to contend with higher than expected increases in peak rainfall. The right balance of structural and non- structural measures Implementing a robust approach to flood risk management requires the adoption of a balanced combination of structural and non-structural measures. In the face of the uncertainties discussed, urban flood risk management cannot rely solely with hard-engineered measures, but rather take an integrated and flexible approach. To protect Ho Chi Minh City from sea level rise, an The table below lists selected structural and non- investment plan of approximately US$ 2 billion for structural measures. Structural measures range the construction of 170 km long dike and 12 large from hard-engineered structures, such as flood flood control gates are under initial preparation. defences and drainage channels, to more natural The Tide Control Project uses large polders and and sustainable complementary measures, although approved, the investment remains including wetlands and natural buffers. controversial as saline intrusion has been more serious than was initially expected. The World Bank Vietnam No. 2 Page 3 VIETNAM URBAN BRIEFS – DISASTER RISKS IN THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT May 1, 2012 construction of a sea dike is also being considered- regret measures can be cost effective even in the another highly controversial proposal. case of future changes in risk. Structural measures can prove unsustainable Preferred measures combinations can have long- under large hydrological, land subsidence and term large co-benefits and cut flood mitigation urbanization uncertainties. Currently, the Ho Chi costs. For instance, multi-purpose retarding basins Minh City Steering Center of Urban Flood Control which store flood water for outflow control when (SCFC) is preparing an Integrated Flood necessary can prove effective in densely populated Management Strategy (IFMS) to synchronize the urban areas. These basins can be also used as existing master plans regarding storm sewer sport and leisure facilities or car parking. system, flood control system, and space Rainwater harvesting can also be seen as an development to 2025 and to adapt HCMC to innovative measure to prevent urban flooding. It climate change. These efforts are also a response forms part of a sustainable drainage system and to increases in precipitation and tide levels can simultaneously be used for non-drinking observed over the last decade already exceed purposes, resulting in water conservation. those projected. Unanticipated changes raise concerns that the original plans may not manage flooding in HCMC and could even make it worse in some areas. The strategy will be decided through a robust Decision Support System (DSS) framework. Land use planning and the regulation of new development The rapid expansion of urban built up areas provides an opportunity to develop new settlements that incorporate integrated flood management at the outset into regular urban Source: Ranger and Garbett-Shiels, 2011, LSE in World Bank planning and governance. Investment in better (2012) “Cities and Flooding.� urban management, such as for solid waste, also reduces flood risk, can have health and Capacity building and multi-stakeholders environmental benefits, and can be used to create coordination employment and relieve poverty. Regulation can Building peoples’ capacity in coping with flooding guide construction out of zones at-risk of flash in their environments plays a crucial role in flood floods, storms, sea surges and landslides. risk management. A recent survey on Community Perception of Climate and Disaster Risk in Can Tho Evaluating flood risk management options City shows that while the existing coping capacity City officials face difficult decisions over scarce of the population as a whole is relatively high, resources and investments. Being able to quantify being able to adapt to the necessity of "living with the impacts of planned or proposed investments floods", differences based on the socio-economic as a means of risk reduction is a critical need. levels remain. The survey highlights the need for There are methods and tools available for helping future resilience programs and action plans to be cities better understand the alternatives to make prepared with the active participation of families, sustainable choices. Evaluation of the costs and local authorities and local communities for the benefits of specific action or a combination of assessment, designing of works, implementation measures, is part to a strategy to prioritize and monitoring of activities to reduce the impact spending for the most urgent and effective of existing disasters and the potential impacts of activities. Rather than seeking the optimal climate change. To address the strong interest of solution, combining alternatives that perform well city authorities for mitigation strategies, Initial under different scenarios can be a preferred Local Resilient Action Plans (LRAP) have been strategy under which flexible or so-called low- developed for three cities including Ha Noi, Can World Bank Vietnam No. 2 Page 4 VIETNAM URBAN BRIEFS – DISASTER RISKS IN THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT May 1, 2012 Tho and Dong Hoi. The LRAP serves as a planning the Second Northern Mountain Rural Poverty document and analytical tool for the cities’ Project to increase resilience of low income government to improve its resilience to the communities. Under the Third Rural Transport potential effects of climate change and natural Project, $14 million was allocated to 8 provinces disasters, forming a part of the city’s overall to fund repairs to major roads damaged by floods. approach to meeting its broader growth and The Bank is supporting HCMC to develop and pilot development objectives. The LRAP also serves as a a Robust Decision Making (RDM) tool which allow public outreach tool. for the use of probabilistic information in the analysis without the pressure to adopt a single, The recognition of residual risk also implies that best-estimate probability distribution in cities have to continue improving the quality of conditions of deep uncertainty. The tool provides a risk communication, early warning systems, quantitative analytical framework to help emergency contingency, evacuation and recovery decision-makers rigorously and systematically planning. Flood forecasting is an essential tool to assess the tradeoffs between alternative options. provide people exposed to risk advance notice of flooding in an effort to save lives and property. The Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Disaster risk financing and insurance strategies Recovery (GFDRR) has provided a grant amount of help to deal with the impact of disasters and are $3.4 million to mainstream DRM into development instrumental in facilitating a quick recovery. investments. As part of the program, the tools and resilience guidance for mainstreaming DRR and Integrated flood risk management is based on CCA into urban management and road close coordination between different levels of construction - for instance, the Climate Resilient government, civil society, public and the private Cities Primer in three cities of Ha Noi, Can Tho and sectors. Steps reducing flood risk should be Dong Hoi, the Operational Guide for carried out through a participatory process Mainstreaming Resilience into Urban Investment involving relevant stakeholders and populations Projects, and a study on drainage construction directly at risk or affected by floods. The measures codes for the coastal cities have been developed selected need to be negotiated by the and piloted. These efforts are further bolstered by stakeholders, and adapted to natural, social and over $1.0 billion of World Bank investments in economic conditions which are subject to change large and small cities in flood control related over time. Focusing on increasing community programs. With the goal of enhancing the resilience, the model of Community-based DRM resilience of Vietnam’s cities, the World Bank will piloted under the First National DRM Project has continue to improve capacity of the disaster been scaled up across Vietnam in 2010. preparedness and prevention entities; promote mainstreaming of DRM into development planning Noteworthy and projects using DRM tools in land-use planning Through investment loans, technical assistance and the design of resilient infrastructure; and and analytical inputs, the World Bank is actively support the integration of the DRM and CCA supporting Vietnam’s DRM efforts. Support to the efforts. agenda has been scaled up with the focus given by Key resources: the Country Partnership Strategy (2007-2011). World Bank (2012) Cities and Flooding: A Guide to Integrated The ongoing US$86 million Natural Disaster Risk Urban Flood Risk Management for the 21 Century. Visit Management Project (NDRMP) and the US$70 http://www.gfdrr.org/urbanfloods. million Development Policy Operation for Climate World Bank (2012) Vietnam Urbanization Review. World Bank (2012) A Workbook on Planning for Urban Change (DPO) aim at increasing the Resilience in the Face of Disasters: Adapting Experiences from Governement’s and cities’ capacity to enhance Vietnam’s Cities to Other Cities. disaster preparedness and mitigation. The DPO World Bank (2010) Weathering the Storm: Options for adaptation components focus on helping the Disaster Risk Financing in Vietnam. Washington, D.C. government improve the resilience of water This note was prepared by Abhas Jha, Dzung Huy Nguyen and Zuzana Svetlosakova. For questions, contact resources. Disaster risk reduction forms part into eapdrm@worldbank.org or visitwww.worldbank.org/vn. World Bank Vietnam No. 2 Page 5