Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. 16601 IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION REPORT KINGDOM OF MOROCCO SECOND SMALL AND MEDIUM SCALE IRRIGATION PROJECT (Loan 2954-MOR) May 20, 1997 Natural Resources and Envir-onment Division Maghreb and Iran Departnent Middle East and North Africa Region This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performnance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit = Moroccan Dirham (DH) Appraisal year average (1987) US$ =8,0 DH Official Exchange Rates (DH per US$ - Annual averages) 1988 1 US$ = 8.21 DH 1989 1 US$ = 8.49 DH 1990 1 US$ = 8.24 DH 1991 1 US$ = 8.71 DH 1992 1 US$ = 8.54 DH 1993 1 US$ = 9.30 DH 1994 1 USS = 9.20 DH 1995 1 US$ = 854 DH 1996 1 US$ = 8 71 DH At closing date February 1997 1 US$ = 9 15 DH KAV Loan 1992 I DM = 5.47 DH 1993 I DM = 5.64 DH 1994 1 DM = 5,68 DH 1995 1 DM 5.97 DH 1996 1 DM = 6.10 DH WEIGHTS AND MEASURES Metric System FISCAL YEAR OF BORROWER Until 1995: January I - December 31 Since 1996: July I - June 30 ABBREVIATIONS AN)D ACRONYMS WUA Water Users Association CCSP Comite de Coordination et de Sivi dc/ l'rojet Project Coordination and Monitoring Unit CMV Centre de Mise en 11aleur Agricultural Development Center CT Centre c/e Travauix Extension Center DAHA Direction des Amnnagemenis H&dro-Agricoles Irrigation Infrastructure Directorate FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS (Continued) DPA Direction Provinciale de I Agriculture Provincial Directorate for Agriculture DPAE Direction de la Planification et des Affaires Economiques Planning and Economic Affairs Directorate KfW Kreditanstalt fiir Wiederaufbau MAMVA Ministere de I 'Agriculture et de la Mise en Valeur Agricole Ministry of Agriculture and Agricultural Development NEF Notice d'Enlretien et de Fonctionnement Operation and Maintenance Handbook ORMVA Office Regional de Mise en Valeur Agricole Regional Agency for Agricultural Development (Irrigation) PMH Petite et Moyenne Hydrotnliqute Small and Medium Scale Irrigation PMH2 Second Projet de Petite et Movenne Hydraulique 2nd Small and Medium Scale Irrigation Project SR Service de RMhabilitation Rehabilitation Service Vice President Kemal Dervi Division Chief: Mark D. Wilson Director: Daniel Ritchie Task Manager: John Cole/Van Tuu NgLi),'cn This document hag a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. TABLE OF CONTENTS PREFACE . ................................................ EVALUATION SUMMARY ..................................... PART I: PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION ASSESSMENT ..................I A. STATEMENT/EVALUATION OF OBJECTIVES ...................... 1 B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PROJECT OBJECTIVES ........................ 2 C. MAJOR FACTORS AFFECTING THE PROJECT ...................... 9 D. PROJECT SUSTAINABILITY ................................. 10 E. BANK PERFORMANCE .................................... 11 F. BORROWER PERFORMANCE ................................ G. ASSESSMENT OF OVERALL OUTCOME ......................... 11 H. FUTURE OPERATION ..................................... 12 I. KEY LESSONS LEARNT .................................... 12 PART II. STATISTICAL TABLES ................................ 15 Table 1: Summary of Assessments ............................... 15 Table 2: Related Bank Loans/Credits .............................. 17 Table 3: Project Timetable .................................... 19 Table 4: Loan/Credit Disbursements: Cumulative, Estimated and Actual ... ..... 19 Table 5: Key Indicators for Project Implementation ..................... 20 Table 6: Key Indicators for Project Operation ......................... 21 Table 7: Studies Included in Project ............................... 21 Table 8: A: Project Costs ..................................... 22 B: Project Financing .................................. 22 Table 9: Economic Costs and Benefits ............................. 23 Table 10: Status of Legal Covenants ............................... 24 Table 11: Compliance with Operational Manual Statements .. ............... 25 Table 12: Bank Resources: Staff Inputs ............................. 25 Table 13: Bank Resources: Missions ............................... 26 TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) APPENDIXES A. Mission's Aide-M6moire (in French) ......... .................... 27 Annex A: Project Costs (in French) . ........................... 37 Annex B: Economic Analysis (in French) ......... ............... 42 Annex C: Monitoring-Evaluation (in French) ....... ............... 58 B. Borrower contribution to the ICR ................................. 62 C. Map: Location of SMSI Schemes IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION REPORT KINGDOM OF MOROCCO SECOND SMALL AND MEDIUM SCALE IRRIGATION PROJECT (Loan 2954-MOR) Preface This is the Implementation Completion Report (ICR) for the Second Small and Medium Scale Irrigation Project (SMSI 2) in Morocco for which Loan 2954-MOR in the amount of US$ 23 million equivalent was signed on January 27, 1989 and made effective on June 16, 1989. The World Bank loan was closed on 31 December, 1996, that is two years after the scheduled date. On April 15, 1997, US$ 4.7 million have been cancelled from the loan at the borrower's request. Total disbursements reached US$ 18.1 million and US$ 0.2 million were cancelled at loan closing. Cofinancing for the project was provided by the Kreditanstalt fur Wiederaufbau (KfW); it is currently expected that the entire KfW loan amount (DM 21.5 million i.e. approximately US$ 11.8 million) will be disbursed by the time of its closing date (December 31, 1997). The ICR was prepared by the FAO/World Bank Cooperation Program (FAO-CP) on behalf of the National Resources, Water and Environment Division (MN1NE) of the World Bank. The preparation of this ICR was begun during the FAO/CP mission to Morocco from February 13 to 28, 1997. The report is based inter alia,on material gathered from the project files, supervision reports, as well as on findings from field investigations and discussions with representatives of the World Bank, the KfW and the Ministry of Agriculture (Minisl/;re dce I 'agriculture et de la mise en valeur agricole - MAMVA) who were involved in the project. The borrower's contribution to this report included the timely provision of a progress report, the assembly of a limited number of data on the project's economic impact, and participation in field trips. The borrower's contribution has been inserted as Appendix B. IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION REPORT KINGDOM OF MOROCCO SECOND SMALL AND MEDIUM SCALE IRRIGATION PROJECT (Loan 2954-MOR) Evaluation Summary Introduction The Second Small and Medium Scale Irrigation Project (SMSI 2) was conceived, just as its predecessor, as part of a long-term program to rehabilitate approximately 250,000 ha of SMSI schemes over a period of 20 years in order to reduce poverty and better satisfy the Kingdom's food requirements. The project's principal objectives were to: (a) rehabilitate approximately 120 traditionally irrigated schemes over a total area of 32,000 ha, and this included 9 spate irrigation schemes of 8,000 ha; (b) set up 7 mechanical repair brigades for spate irrigation schemes; and (c) strengthen institutional capacity for managing SMSI programs at both central and regional levels. Total cost for this five-year project was estimated to be US$ 44.9 million. The World Bank was to provide a loan of US$ 23 million, German aid (KfW) US$11.8 and the Government of Morocco the remaining US$ 10.1 (7.2 million of which would have been drawn from taxes and duties as well as financial contribution from water users). The project was appraised in April 30, 1987, approved by the World Bank Board of Directors in June 1988 and became effective in June 1989. The project was extended by two years and closed in December 1996. On April 15, 1997, at the borrower's request, US$ 4.7 million have been cancelled from the loan. Disbursements totalled US$ 18.1 million, leaving US$ 0.2 million which were cancelled. Outcome of Project Implementation Selection of schemes and feasibility studies: By and large, the project's principal objective of reinforcing a systematic approach to the rehabilitation of SMSI schemes was achieved. MAMVA's central and provincial services have increased their efficiency in rehabilitating traditionally irrigated schemes, from the identification and selection stages all the way to the construction and transfer of works to the users. The selection procedure and preparation phase, involving five sequential stages, led to lengthy and costly studies because insufficient account had been taken of the fact that the targeted schemes had been cultivated and irrigated for generations and that the required works were really quite simple. Credit must be given for the recognition at preparation of the need to involve users as of the studies phase, allowing them to have a say in the choice of technical solutions. MAMVA technical agents and the consulting firms had some trouble in implementing this participatory approach because they themselves were not well versed in this participatory approach and because the users had not really 1i grasped the point of the exercise. Nevertheless, as the project gradually took off, progress was made and the users' sense of ownership over the works was consolidated. Rehabilitation works: On the project's scheduled closing date (December 31, 1996) it had achieved 80% (i.e. 25 150 ha) of its surface area goal and on December 31, 1997 will achieve 90% (28 070 ha) when ongoing works will be completed and when KfW's loan will be closed. The works largely concentrated on those perennial and seasonal schemes over 100 ha because few small-scale schemes met the selection criteria. It was decided, also, to rehabilitate only 4 spate irrigation schemes owing to the high cost and low return involved. Renovation works overran the scheduled timetable for a number of reasons: the length of the studies, interruption of works so as not to interfere with crop cultivation, failure of some contractors, and floods in certain wadis. Given that the initial timetable was probably over-optimistic anyway, it must be pointed out that the delay in works only had a relative effect on the end results and ultimately even helped users to foster a better sense of ownership over the works. The cost for renovating seasonal and perennial irrigation schemes turned out to be 10% less than forecast. This welcome result, and the fact that the quality of works was generally satisfactory, goes to show that the number of Moroccan contractors capable of qualified work on SMSI schemes is sufficient to warrant competition in tendering. Other components: The equipment for the seven mechanical repair brigades to renovate spate irrigation schemes in the southern provinces was delivered with a delay varying from one to three years. Their disappointing performance led a World Bank/KfW supervision mission to recommend that a system be designed to optimize their operations program, and an expertise for this was procured at the end of 1995, but never started because of lengthy local procedures. This study should first of all sort out the problem of how to divide up the tasks to be allocated to the DPAs, ORMVAs and to private companies on the basis of service efficiency. The program for the purchase of vehicles and office equipment was accomplished but overran the budget, and training was provided for 154 engineers but not for farmers yet. The Water Users' Associations (WUAs): The SAR rightly highlighted the importance of grouping users together as of the selection phase. However, the establishment of legally recognized Irrigation Water Users Associations could not begin until May 1992 when the decree for the implementation of the law on WUAs was published in the Official Gazette. It was only then that they could be converted into associations with legal standing. There are currently 73 WUAs within the 39 schemes involved in the project, but the overall number is growing as more and more users put in a request for the rehabilitation of their schemes. Users are thus shedding their doubts as regards the opportunity of the WUAs. Generally speaking, however, the WLJAs, once established, have not quite engaged in the corporate activities expected of them. General meetings are not held, the board's decisions are not put down in writing, and the amount of annual water charges not always set, etc. If, as is the case, the O&M of renovated schemes has so far not run into any particular problem, that is because the practices of traditional associations have continued to work even after the works were completed. This means that the users have not understood what is demanded of them, and that is that they must (a) formalize the management of this traditional association by progressively incorporating the legal framework required by the law and iii (b) systematize the O&M of schemes so as to ensure the sustainability of government investments. This problem, which had not been identified at preparation, fortunately came to light in the course of the project and the WUAs are now beginning to receive assistance. This support will be bolstered by a pilot training program aimed at technical agents and WUAS representatives which will soon be launched with KfW's assistance and funding. The project also assisted in the production of instructions handbooks (Notices d'entretien7 et defonctionneniemi - NEF) which will help the WVTAs of two pilots schemes in getting themselves ready to deal with the kind of problems they will encounter in the future. Agricultural development: The bulk of the renovation work on schemes has only recently been completed and farmers have not had the time to substantially modify their production system. Nevertheless, there are indications that intensification is beginning and farmers say that, once they can be sure of a permanent water supply, they are ready to develop cash crops and make more use of inputs. This trend was only to be expected since farmers on most SMSI schemes have always had to save on water and, water being so rare and precious, it is only natural that they treat any additional resource with great care. The extent of intensification will depend on each farmer's technical knowledge and his cost/benefit assessment of the major crops. Thus any advice local technical services can provide farmers on choice of crops, technical packages, marketing and processing of products etc. can only be for the good and lead to better profits. Those schemes that come under the scope of Agricultural Development Centers (CMV) will be more advantaged in this respect than the other schemes, because Extension Centres (CT) do not have the means to deal with all the issues brought up by the farmers. Monitoring and evaluation: Monitoring of the physical components of the renovation program was carried out satisfactorily and the bi-annual reports of the Project Coordination and Monitoring Unit (CCSP) provided regular information on the execution of the various phases. But on the social and economic aspects, numerous problems are encountered in implementing the system for evaluating the impact of SMSI 2 led a supervision mission to redefine and simplify it. To date, four of the five selected schemes have managed to transmit data to the CCSP. This is an encouraging start but the difficulties that the CTs are facing in collecting the data must not be underestimated. Monitoring of the WUAs entails data collection from all the schemes and would be a relatively simple exercise. Instead, the evaluation of the rehabilitation program's impact on agricultural development and farmers' income calls for specific surveys on a representative sample of schemes. The two should thus be conducted as separate exercises. Major Factors Affecting the Project The analysis of the difficulties encountered in the early stages of the first project SMSI 1 was very useful for the preparation of project SMSI 2 and led to the drawing up of realistic objectives. The project also benefited from the fact that MAMVA technical agents had already worked in the previous project. Thus, an experienced team of staff played a fundamental role in obtaining good results. The law on WJUAs was only promulgated in December 1990 and its implementation decree in May 1992, that is nearly three years after the loan became effective. This delay certainly hampered the project's work with the associations. iv Sustainability The sustainability of the rehabilitation of seasonal and perennial irrigation schemes rests on three conditions which have been or are likely to be fulfilled. First, the works have generally been of an acceptable standard and respond to the real needs of the users who are increasing their involvement in the choice of technical solution. Second, farmers' income level should not stand in the way of good maintenance of the infrastructure, and their long-standing respect for the value of water will act as a further incentive. Third, thanks to assistance they have begun to receive and which is set to increase, the WUAs should be able to progressively supersede traditional associations in carrying out O&M in a regular and systematic way. On the contrary, the investments in spate irrigation schemes are not likely to be sustainable. The high cost of the first rehabilitation works led the project to put a stop to this component. The management of the mechanical repair brigades is currently beset by problems. World Bank and Borrower Performance Overall, Bank performance was satisfactory. The project was well prepared, with lessons drawn from the previous project used to good effect, but greater account should have been taken of the fact that the schemes to be rehabilitated had been cultivated for a long time. The project should also have been more thorough in preparing the spate irrigation components. Supervision missions were regularly carried out and helped project staff solve a number of technical, administrative and financial problems, all of which was much appreciated in Morocco. The missions could have dealt with the issues of monitoring and evaluation and of the mechanical repair brigades management earlier and more insistently. Borrower performance can likewise be judged satisfactory. MAMVA made sure the staff who had worked on project SMSI carried on working for Project SMSI 2 and gradually even reinforced it. Despite severe budgetary constraints, MAMVA managed to allocate adequate funds to the project although with serious delays during the last four years. There were certain weaknesses in performance, however, such as delays in the payment of some contractors, low level of disbursement for World Bank and KfW's loans, difficulties in evaluating the economic impact of the project, the linited resources available to the CTs, weaknesses of the MAMVA support services. Economic Rate of Return: At appraisal, the Economic Rate of Return (ERR) was estinated to be 20%. Present estimates do not diverge from the appraisal ones. The ERR for the entirety of the perennial and seasonal schemes is estimated to be 23%. If the costs of the spate irrigation component (14.6% of the total project cost) are included in the analysis, without taking into account its related benefits since those benefits are low and difficult to estimate, the ERR ( 15%) is still very satisfactory. Assessment of Overall Outcome Taken as a whole, the project's outcome can be considered satisfactory. The principal objectives were largely achieved. At project final closing, about 90% (28,070 ha) have been rehabilitated out of a total of 32,000 ha initially determined. The experience MAMVA's central v and regional services gained in small and medium scale irrigation schemes was substantial. Several consulting firms and contractors have similarly gained experience, as the project progressed, and learnt how to collaborate with the users of schemes to be rehabilitated. The smaller spate irrigation component did not achieve good results in terms of economic returns and sustainability and consequently has been reduced during implementation. Rehabilitation efforts were concentrated on the more productive perennial and seasonal schemes over 100 ha. As a result, the project as a whole reached the objective of physical works, increased agricultural production, reduction of poverty and development of side activities (livestock, small agro-industries). The positive overall assessment is borne out by the project's economic rate of return which reaches 23% for all the rehabilitated perennial and seasonal schemes and 15% if the rehabilitated spate irrigation component is included. Future Operation The project is to continue throughout 1997 with the assistance and financing of KfW. This supplementary year will be used to complete ongoing works, bringing the total rehabilitated schemes to 28,000 ha, and to conduct a pilot training program aimed at MAMVA technical agents and WUAS members as a precursor to what should ultimately be a national program. The long- term rehabilitation program of SMSI schemes will be continued as far as Government resources will allow. The support of donors such as the World Bank and KfW would be a useful contribution. Key Lessons Learned Small and medium scale irrigation schemes provide an enormous potential for the development of agricultural production in Morocco. Participatory approach through the WUA system is essential to the success of SMSI projects and must be replicated in other countries. The continuation of the long-term program for the rehabilitation of traditional schemes should take into account the following key lessons: (a) studies should be kept simple so as to reduce their cost and duration although the time required to enter into dialogue and cooperate with users should respect their pace in thinking things out and coming to a decision; (b) the studies phase should be used to identify the issues concerning the WUAs' legal status and management with the user community; (c) local and regional agricultural services should be involved in the sub-projects at the studies phase; (d) the role of the WUAs' "7th board member"' should be clearly outlined; The 7th board member comes from MAMVA and represents the Ministry in the WUA's board whereas the six other board members are elected by the Users. vi (e) tenders for studies and works should be organized for groups of small projects in order to attract a greater number of contractors; (f) a net distinction should be made between monitoring of associations on all schemes and the evaluation of agricultural production and farmers' income on a sample of representative schemes; (g) improving the quality of the support and assistance provided for farmers by the MAMVA's regional entities; and (h) continuity in the management of the project, at both central and regional levels, should be ensured. Vii IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION REPORT KINGDOM OF MOROCCO SECOND SMALL AND MEDIUM SCALE IRRIGATION PROJECT (Loan 2954-MOR) PART 1: PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION ASSESSMENT A. STATEMENT/EVALUATION OF OBJECTIVES 1. The Second Small and Medium Scale Irrigation Project (SMSI 2) was conceived, just as the first one, as part of a long-term program to rehabilitate approximately 250,000 ha of SMSI schemes over a period of 20 years. The program's objectives are to fight poverty and better satisfy the Kingdom's food requirements. The restoration of small irrigation networks spread out throughout the nation would increase the revenue of a large number of small farmers and, at the same time, play a larger role in satisfying the food needs of neighboring urban areas. In order to meet these objectives, the systematic approach used in the first phase has been continued and reinforced. The approach seeks to: (a) set up Irrigation Water Users' Associations (Associations d'usagers des eauix agricoles - WUA) to be in charge of O&M and of recovering the investment cost pertaining to users, and (b) build up MAMVA's technical services' experience in SMSI schemes both at central and provincial levels. 2. The project was conceived as a sub-sector program with three main components: (a) renovation of approximately 120 traditionally irrigation schemes, comprising a total area of roughly 32,000 ha, some 8,000 ha of which are covered by 9 spate irrigation schemes; (b) purchase of equipment for seven spate irrigation repair brigades to operate in the southern provinces; and (c) reinforcement of management structure for SMSI schemes at central and provincial levels: provision of technical assistance and training of personnel, special studies, crop trials in areas of spate irrigation, vehicles, office equipment and supplies and operating expenses. The implementation of the renovation component was to be carried out in four tranches of 8,000 ha each. When the project was prepared, studies on the schemes of the first tranche had already been carried out and selection criteria and procedures had been defined for the other schemes. 3. At appraisal, the cost of the 5-year time slice project was estimated at about US$ 44.9 million (DH 359.9 million). Financing included a Bank loan of US$ 23.0 million, a KfW loan of US$ 11.8 million and a Government contribution, including taxes, duties and contribution from water users, of US$ 10.1 million. B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PROJECT OBJECTIVES General 4. By and large, the project's principal objective of reinforcing a systematic approach in the management of SMSI schemes has been reached (Part n, Table 1). The project has steadily raised the skills of MAMVA's central and provincial services in managing sub- projects for the renovation of traditionally irrigated schemes, from the identification and selection stages all the way to the construction and transfer of works to the users. Most of the areas targeted by the project have been rehabilitated, at least as far as perennial and seasonal irrigation are concerned. The overall quality of the works carried out, the interest shown by farmers in cultivating cash crops, and their current involvement in the management and maintenance of the irrigation systems, are factors which point to a substantial increase in their revenue as well as to the sustainability of the schemes. These are the positive results of the project. On the negative side are the facts that it took two extra years to complete the project (seven years instead of the scheduled five), that the spate irrigation component had to be scaled down, that the mechanical repair brigades in the southern provinces are not operating as they should and that the system for monitoring and evaluating the project's economic impact has yet to be implemented. Furthermore, assistance to WUAs has consisted for the most part merely in the establishment of such associations; it is high time they are provided with: (a) back-up in matters of organization and operation to ease their transition from traditional to the modern management procedures now required of them; and (b) support and assistance to maximize production on rehabilitated schemes. These issues will be analyzed further on. Selection and Feasibility Studies of the Schemes 5. In order to back up the technical and economic justification of the program of work and begin work without delay, preparation of project SMSI 2 had included studies on the first four schemes (7,800 ha) which had been selected as being representative of the traditional irrigation sub-sector. Studies on the remaining 24,000 ha were to be carried out in three tranches of 8,000 ha. Half the studies were to be entrusted to private consultancy firms and the other half (i.e. roughly 12,000 ha) to the technical services of the Provincial Directorates for Agriculture (Directions provinciales de 1'agricultutre - DPAs) and of the Regional Authorities for Agricultural Development (Offices regionaux de mise en a/lecur agricole - ORMVAs). The cost was estimated to be equivalent to 100 person/months of consultancies, that is DH 9.5 million.. As it turned out, however, the contribution of the DPAs and ORMVAs was far below expectation: they have only prepared studies on 14 small schemes for a total area of 830 ha. This meant that the studies outstanding of 34 schemes had to be handed over to private consultancy firms. The cost therefore rose to DH 48 million, a very sizable overrun. High unit costs, which will be looked into in the following paragraph, account for this overrun. The option taken to hire consultancy firms to study those schemes over 100 ha, and the decision to establish a portfolio of sub- 2 projects (9 schemes for a total of 7 600 ha) so that the next phase of the long-term program could go ahead without delay, were the main factors for this underestimation. 6. The selection procedure adopted at the time of the project's preparation for selecting schemes for the program's second, third and fourth tranches was partly to blame for the overrun in budget and delays in the project. The procedure involved five sequential stages requiring formal approval before implementation of works could begin. Criteria included land tenure, quality of soil, economic rate of return, need for infrastructure rehabilitation, a two-year deadline for the execution of works and, last, the commitment of water rights owners to establish themselves WUAs to be in charge of the works' O&M. These criteria led to long and costly studies each of which entailed 10-12 reports. What had not been sufficiently taken into account at the time of project preparation was that the traditional schemes targeted for renovation had been irrigated and cultivated for many generations. The required works, which generally consisted in upgrading intake structures and in lining of canals without interfering with existing water rights, were relatively simple. It was superfluous, for instance, to conduct detailed soil studies or topographical surveys entailing aerial coverage and photographic mapping. In hindsight, the process could easily have been reduced to two phases: discussion with users in order to draw up a pre- feasibility outline (see following paragraph) followed by a feasibility study with detailed designs and preparation of bidding documents. 7. The need to involve users in the choice of technical solutions was clearly recognized at the time of project preparation. However, engaging the users in a proper dialogue in order to ensure that they really were participating in the decision making, as opposed to a mere and hurried consultation, did not prove to be an easy task. MAMVA's technical agents had only a very limited knowledge of the participatory approach and the users themselves were somewhat at a loss as to the purpose of the exercise. Nevertheless, as preparation for the various tranches of works went ahead, the advantages of the approach became better understood by MAMVA's technicians, the consulting firms and the users; this led to more flexible schedules and plans for the works, which were therefore more in line with the users' needs. As a result, the users' sense of ownership over the renovated works steadily increased and there were less disputes when work was under way. 8. At the time of project preparation, the spate irrigation components (renovation works and maintenance by mechanical repair brigades) could not benefit by any previous lessons leamt under SMSI 1 since that project was only concerned with perennial and seasonal irrigation schemes. These components were therefore less thoroughly prepared. Renovation Works 9. At the end of the project, 39 schemes amounting to 25,150 ha had been rehabilitated. By the time the KfW Loan Agreement closes on December 31, 1997, it is expected that a total of 28,070 ha will be renovated. The project thus achieved 80% of its goal of 32,000 ha at the closure of the Bank's loan and will reach 90% by the end of 1997 3 when ongoing works are completed. In terms of area covered, perennial and seasonal irrigation schemes will exceed the set goal by the end of 1997 (24,480 ha against the targeted 24,000 ha). In terms of number of schemes, however, these fall very much short of the target at appraisal: 35 against 111 (Part II, Table 5). One of the reasons is that selection criteria privileged larger schemes as the studies undertaken during the project found only few small schemes satisfying the rate of return criterion in spite of the fact that the average renovation cost of a small perimeter turned out to be only US$ 1,000/ha (see para. 12). Spate irrigation schemes selected represented less than 50% of the set goal (3,590 ha against 8,000 ha), but in this case the problem of rate of return was the overriding factor in the management's decision to rehabilitate only 4 out of 9 schemes. 10. The rehabilitation component principally entailed work on weirs, intake structures, tubewells, lining of 'seguias' and repair of rural roads (Appendix C). The quality of work carried out can on the whole be considered satisfactory. Supervision missions did, however, point out a series of minor problems in the 'seguias', such as expansion joints missing in certain sections, but these were more often than not overcome during the interim between the provisional and final handover of works. Other 'seguias' had problems with control structures. It must be mentioned that, although flow control structures for the distribution of water within a perimeter are easy to use, the 'mokkhadems' do not really consider them indispensable, accustomed as they are to sharing water by methods which, however basic, fully comply with traditional water rights. So far as work on intake structures was concerned, supervision missions did much to improve their design and construction quality. The project entrusted the Laboratoire public d'essais et d'6tudes with the job of supervising all works requiring geotechnical study and this has guaranteed that they were properly carried out, especially in the case of diversion weirs. 11. Rehabilitation works greatly overran the scheduled timetable which presumed that the first tranche of works would be completed by end 1990 and the remaining three between mid-1992 and end 1993. Instead, the first tranche (covering 7,800 ha) was only completed in 1994 and, as of end 1996, tranches 2,3 and 4 had only respectively reached 93%, 82% and 80% of the target, bringing the total area equipped to 25,150 ha. The main factors which contributed to this delay are: the laborious selection procedure for schemes and the length of the studies; the necessary interruption in the execution of works during irrigation periods in order to allow crops to grow; the extension of works, in particular for the lining of 'seguias', in order to meet last-minute requests of WUAs; unforeseeable interruption of works during wadi spates; failures on the part of certain contractors forcing MAMVA to terminate their contract (first tranche); and delays in payment to contractors because of budget crises. This said, the effects of the delay must be measured within a wider perspective since the initial schedule of activities, especially the studies component, was probably over-optimistic anyway and since the project's principal objective of handing over the schemes to user groups and placing them in charge of O&M was more important than a rigid adherence to the timetable. 4 12. The cost of renovation works turned out to be less than estimated, averaging DH 8,400/ha against the forecast DH 9,300/ha (Annexe A of Appendix A). This unexpected bonus and the overall satisfactory quality of rehabilitation works carried out on SMSI schemes demonstrate that the number of Moroccan contractors able to compete for rehabilitation works is large enough to influence prices. Spate irrigation schemes turned out to be much more costly to renovate (on average DH 15,400/ha) than perennial or seasonal schemes (on average DH 7,500). This explains why project staff privileged perennial and seasonal irrigation schemes and preferred to wait until the technical services could provide them with economically viable solutions before carrying on the spate irrigation program. On the other hand, the slight difference in cost per hectare (7%) between small and large schemes does not really explain why priority was given to schemes over 100 ha. The reasons are probably to do with the DPAs and ORMVAs' insufficient capacity to prepare studies and supervise the works, as well as the fact that in some regions contractors showed little interest in the program. For the moment, it would seem that the best way of reducing this last constraint would be to contract for clusters of small projects situated at a reasonable distance from one another. Other Components 13. The equipment for the first four mechanical repair brigades was delivered in 1990 and in 1993 for the last one, that is with a delay varying from one to three years. They were allocated to two ORMVAs and five DPAs for renovation work on spate irrigation schemes in the southern provinces; the target was that they would be working annually on a total area of about 80,000 ha. According to the project's annual reports, the repair brigades worked on close to 42,000 ha in 1991, their pace slowing down to a trough of 14,500 ha in 1994 before picking up again in 1995 and reaching 17,300 ha in 1996. The brigades' poor performance was analyzed by the supervision mission in February 1994. It was thought that the problem was due to the lack of an operation program that would ensure full use of the brigades in priority activities. In effect, the average use of the equipment was very low, amounting to less than 300 hours/year, when a normal schedule would call for 1,200 to 1,500 hours/year. The lack of heavy duty trailers to shift the equipment is a limiting factor and accounts in part for the slack performance. There are other factors, however, including cumbersome administrative procedures for the purchase of spare parts for the angledozers, wheel excavator, back-hoe tractors, etc. which can have the effect of interrupting work for several months. The supervision mission therefore suggested that a system should be worked out to optimize the work of the brigades, and an expertise for this was being procured at the end of 1995. This study should first of all sort out the problem of how to divide up the tasks between DPAs or ORMVAs and private contracting firms on the basis of comparative advantage. 14. The program for the purchase of vehicles and office equipment was accomplished but overran the budget considerably. In the case of vehicles, unit prices turned out to be far above estimates. As for office equipment, unforeseen expenditures were encountered in equipping regional services for the feasibility studies they had to 5 conduct. Funds earmarked for technical assistance were used to finance the contracts for the Laboratoire public d'essais et d'etudes to oversee the works. Funds were also used to train 154 engineers, mostly from DPAs and ORMVAs, in using computer programs for rehabilitation works design and O&M. The 3-year research program on cereal production under spate irrigation has still not begun. The contract is in the process of being committed since end 1995. WUAs 15. The SAR was very firm in recommending that water users associations be set up as of the studies phase. The very existence of such associations was to be used as a criterion in selecting those schemes to be renovated. However, the creation of legally recognized. Irrigation Water Users Associations (WUAs) was put off until May 1992 when a decree for the implementation of the law on WVUAs was published in the Official Gazette. It was only then that they could be converted into associations with legal standing. There are currently 73 WUAs within the 39 schemes involved in the project; further WUAs are being created by users who have applied for the rehabilitation of their schemes. It would thus seem that the message transmitted to village communities by the project has been properly understood and that communities are not reluctant to setting up WUAs. The project in fact succeeded in convincing users that the associations would not change their ancestral land and water rights. Generally speaking, however, the WUrAs, once established, have not actively undertaken the activities expected of them. General meetings are not held, the board's decisions are not put down in writing, and the amount of annual water charges is not always fixed nor recovered. Yet the O&M of renovated schemes has not run into any particular problem, because traditional practices have continued to work. It would therefore seem that the technical staff have not had the time or have not succeeded in convincing users on the role the WUAs should play. Users have not understood what was demanded of them, which was to: (a) formalize the management of this traditional association by progressively adopting the framework established by the laws and the decree; and (b) systematically plan the O&M of schemes so as to ensure the sustainability of government's investments, and (c) collect water fees to face O&M costs and charges. 16. Preparation for project SMSI 2 failed to analyze how the traditional associations were run and their capability to manage small-scale irrigation schemes. Such an analysis would have provided them with the justification for the creation of WUAs and helped to define an education and training program aimed at users so that they could better understand the rules of the new legal framework and use it to better effect. It was fortunate that this problem was spotted in the course of the project and WUAs are now beginning to receive assistance. Indeed, if the WUAs are to fully play their role in the future O&M of the irrigation systems, the project simply must intensify its efforts to ensure that the DPAs and ORMVAs give these associations the necessary support. As the results of the soon-to-be-started pilot training program come in, it is proposed that all the schemes and WV.UAs concerned be progressively integrated within a national support 6 program. It is not too late to implement such a program because the management problems the associations face at present can still be overcome in the traditional manner. It is nevertheless necessary that the associations immediately receive assistance in getting themselves ready to face the kind of problems they will encounter in five or ten years timie. To this end, O&M procedures should be formalized and explained in appropriate instruction handbooks (Notice d'entretietn et de fonctionnement - NEF). Two NEFs are currently being produced for the schemes of Talghoumt and Toroug. These NEFs will enable the WUA to get to know the various O&M tasks and their costs and the organization involved and will also enable MAMVA to verify that the maintenance is being done. Agricultural Development 17. It is still too early to provide a firm estimate of the agricultural development likely to result from the rehabilitation works. Project works have only just been completed for most of the concerned schemes and farmers have not had the time to substantially modify their production system. The data gathered by the DPAs and the ORMVAs for the ICR provide only a prospective idea of how production might develop. Field trips have shown evidence, however, that the production system is being intensified, as witnessed by more land being used for cash crops and by the increased use of inputs. This trend was only to be expected because farmers on most of the SMSI schemes have always had to economize on water and, water being so rare and precious, it is only natural for them to use any surplus water with care within the bounds of their technical knowledge. Thus, farmers have indicated that, once they can be sure of a permanent water supply and depending on the suitability of their schemes, they will increase fruit trees (apple, almond, olive, date palms), market-garden produces and fodder and will reduce fallow. These are the first findings of change. Farmers have also said they wish to intensify production through a greater use of inputs and better care to their crops. They now are in a position to do so because they spend much less time maintaining and operating their irrigation networks. Farmers who had decided to cut down on inputs because of water shortages are likely to more rapidly switch to more intensive cultivation practices. Those, however, who are not fully convinced of the economic advantages of intensive farming will, instead, be slower to change. 18. The extent of intensification will depend on each farmer's technical level and his cost/benefit analysis for each crop. Advice provided by local technical services regarding choice of crops, technical packages, marketing and processing of products, etc., will enable farmers to improve their profits. From this point of view, those schemes within the scope of ORMVAs will be in a position of privilege since ORMVAs are staffed and equipped to provide extension services. As the mission was informed, ORMVAs'extensionists are capable to assist farmers'in improving agricultural production. Other schemes will suffer unless MAMVA sets up an efficient extension service for them in the near future. Moreover, once production increases, there is scope for certain farm- 7 related activities to develop (such as milk collection, packaging of fruit, pressing of oil etc.) thus widening the range of work and generating additional incomes. 19. Data on agricultural production gathered for the ICR did not cover spate irrigation. In view of the issues affecting its future and of the component's marginal importance within the project, it was considered preferable to concentrate on perennial and seasonal irrigation. Monitoring and Evaluation 20. The Project Coordination and Monitoring Unit (Cellule de coordinatio77 el de suivi du projet - CCSP) was to monitor and evaluate progress made in implementing SMSI 2. Monitoring of the implementation of the physical program was carried out satisfactorily and the biennial reports of the CCSP provided regular information on the execution of the various phases, On the contrary, the evaluation of the economic impact has posed and continues to pose problems. The system initially put forward for this evaluation proved so difficult to implement that a supervision mission in 1994 had to redefine and simplify it. The structure of the information system included four levels: WUA; Extension Centers (Centtes de travaux - CT) and Development Centers (Cenfres de mise en valeur - CMV); DPA and ORMVA; and CCSP. It entailed data on agricultural and animal production and marketing, on water resources and on monitoring of the WUA's administrative and accounts system. Information on production, based on statements furnished by the farmers, was to be matched against data collected by the Directorate for Planning and Economic Affairs (Direction de la pl/aificatioi et des affaires &onomiques - DPAE) from a sample of farms. Instead of all renovated schemes, the 1994 SPN mission reduced the member of schemes to be monitored to only five earmarked for a trial phase.' To date, the CCSP has only received data from two schemes for the 1994/95 campaign and from four schemes for the 1995/96 campaign. Difficulties encountered by the CTs in collecting the data must not be underestimated. Data gathered by the CCSP for the 1994/95 campaign were inputted according to a program proposed by the DPAE that would enable a computerized statistical treatment. Given the limited number of variables and extent of the samples, however, a simpler program would suffice for the required analyses and presentation of results. 21. Monitoring of the WlUAs and data collection for the evaluation of the rehabilitation program's impact on agricultural development and farmers' income should be conducted as separate activities. Data on agricultural development can be collected from a representative sample of schemes, whereas the monitoring of WUAs must involve Even this revised system proved difficult to implement and in 1996 a Governmenti of Morocco/BIRD/KfW supervision mission proposed that the structure of the information system be reduced to two levels (AUEA and CCSP) and that the information be limited to the level strictly necessary for an evaluation of the impact on production and of the financial status of AUEA. Five schemes (three of which had already been earmarked under the first system) were then selected for this purpose. 8 all schemes concerned so that the CCSP's support program can adequately reflect the situation. Besides, the data necessary for this kind of monitoring are easy to access since they require no estimation. In his capacity as "7th member of the board", MAMVA's representative should make sure the CCSP receives basic information on the association's internal affairs and on the maintenance of the irrigation network. In the case of data collection for the evaluation of agricultural development, the sampling methodology should be revised so as to include useful information on crop rotation and yields. Moreover, funds should be allocated to enable consulting firms to carry out a study, based on a sample of rehabilitated schemes, for the evaluation of the impact of SMSI programs on agricultural production and farmers' income. Economic Rate of Return 22. At appraisal, the Economic Rate of Return (ERR) was estimated to be 20 %. That estimate was based on ERR calculated for each one of the four sub-projects for which feasibility studies were available: from 12 % for the Alt Messaoud spate irrigation Sub-Project to 46 % for the perennial Agadir Lahna Sub-Project (Part II, Table 9 and Appendix A). Present estimates do not diverge from the appraisal ones. The ERR for the entirety of the perennial and seasonnal schemes is estimated to be 23 %, varying from 20 to 32 % according to the categories of schemes. If the costs of the spate irrigation components (renovation works and repair brigades) are included in the analysis, without any related benefits being taken into account, the ERR (15%) is still very satisfactory. The switching values show that the ERRs are quite insensitive to cost increases or benefit decreases. 23. During the last three years of the project, budget constraints have seriously hampered the project implementation. Execution of rehabilitation works have been delayed and several construction companies have not been paid. Rehabilitation of some schemes have therefore been delayed or even stopped. C. MAJOR FACTORS AFFECTING THE PROJECT 24. The project's preparation benefited from the analysis of the difficulties encountered during the first years of SMSI I and this meant that, with the exception of the above-mentioned issues concerning perimeter selection procedures and traditional water users associations, the objectives proposed for perennial and seasonal irrigation schemes were realistic. The project also benefited from the fact that MAMVA technical agents had already worked in the previous project. Thus, an experienced team of staff played a fundamental role in obtaining good results. 25. The law on WUAs was only promulgated in December 1990 and its implementation decree in May 1992, that is nearly three years after the loan became effective. During this period, the project had to spend a lot of time explaining to the users what the WUAs were all about and the program of work consequently had to contend 9 with all the problems that a de facto association entailed. Additional work was later required in convincing the community of users to convert their defacto associations into dejure associations. D. PROJECT SUSTAINABILITY 26. The sustainability of the rehabilitation of seasonal and perennial irrigation schemes rests on three conditions: the renovation of works must be of good quality, farmers' revenue from crops must be sufficient to enable them to carry out the schemes' O&M, and the organizational system set up must guarantee that the maintenance is done. These conditions would appear to be met for SMSI 2. As mentioned in para. 10, the works were on the whole properly done. As the project progressed, users became more and more involved in the technical choices and later also in the overseeing of the works, which of course benefited the quality of work carried out. Although it is too early to give a precise estimate of the future development of agricultural production and farmers' income, there are clear indications that the water made available will generally be put to good use and that the cultivation of cash crops will be intensified. Farmers' incomes should thus not constitute a problem for the future maintenance of the networks. Since, moreover, farmers in these SMSI schemes have always had to deal with a water shortage, they are very much aware of the value of water and are thus bound to give maintenance adequate priority. Data furnished to the mission, and confirmed by brief field visits, indicate that even though traditional associations are still in charge of the O&M of their newly renovated schemes, the standard of maintenance is satisfactory. Nevertheless, measures must be now taken to ensure that they set up a system based on users' payment of annual water charges. The preparation of O&M handbook (NEF) outlining appropriate requirements, as well as the training program for MAMVA technical agents and WUAs' members (which the DAHA is soon to launch with assistance from the German Fund for Training and Specialization), will facilitate the establishment of this system. The training program will assist WUAs to progressively supersede traditional associations in the O&M of irrigation networks, so that the proposed legal framework can enable them to deal with the more complex management problems they are likely to face in the near future. 27. The situation of spate irrigation schemes and the mechanical repair brigades presents a markedly less favorable outlook. The renovation cost of these schemes is currently too high for cost-efficient investment which is why the project decided to curtail their number. The poor performance of the brigades has warranted a recent study, to be presented to the Government, in order to propose ways and means of improving the situation. Meanwhile, efforts are re-concentrated on perennial and seasonal irrigation schemes, which are more important than spate irrigation schemes in terms of surface area and investments, and which show better signs of sustainability. 10 E. BANK PERFORMANCE 28. At the request of the World Bank, the FAO-CP provided assistance to the Government in preparing the project. The preparation (1986-87) and the subsequent appraisal (1987) benefited from lessons derived from the SMSI 1 project (1984-1992). As mentioned, the project ought to have taken more account of the fact that the schemes to be rehabilitated had been cultivated for generations by farmers who appreciate the value of water and are accustomed to the collective maintenance of irrigated land. Also, more attention should have been given to preparing the spate irrigation components. On the other hand, the project's firm recommendation that users be involved as early as the studies phase did much to ensure the project's successful outcome. Because SMSI I project supervision missions had been able to tackle some of SMSI 2's problems, the first project SMSI 2 supervision mission did not take place until November 1990, that is 1S months after the loan became effective. Missions were thereafter conducted twice a year until mid-1994 and were then scaled down to once a year (Part II, Table 13). For the most part, the missions were made up of two representatives: an Agronomist and an Irrigation Engineer. The missions provided assistance to project staff in helping to solve problems of various kinds (technical, administrative and financial) and this was much appreciated. However, the hiring of a monitoring and evaluation expert should have been organized in 1992 or 1993, since the problem had been pointed out mid-1991. Furthermore, given that the problems associated with mechanical repair brigades had been pointed out by the supervision mission in May 1992, subsequent missions could probably have followed this up with more determination (the study has yet to begin). F. BORROWER PERFORMANCE 29. When SMSI 2 project was added to and then eventually took over from SMSI 1, MAMVA ensured that its staff continued to work on it and progressively even reinforced it. MAMVA managed to do this even at a time when the restructuring of the Rural Engineering Directorate promoted the CCSP as Chief of Service of a newly established Rehabilitation Unit (Service de rehabilitation - SR). At the beginning., MAMVA allocated enough funds to the project, but by the end of the project, because of budget constraints, execution of project's components was delayed. Main weaknesses in performance concerned: (a) delays in the payment of contractors; (b) difficulties on the part of the CCSP and DPAE in evaluating the economic impact of the project; (c) limited human and material resources allocated to extension services; (d) failure to begin the trials on cereal crops in spate irrigation schemes; (e) delays in starting study to improve management of mechanical repair brigades; (f) cumbersome and lengthy procedures, and (g) low disbursements rates. G. ASSESSMENT OF OVERALL OUTCOME 30. Taken as a whole, the project's outcome can be considered satisfactory. The principal objectives were substantially achieved (Part II, Table 1). MAMVA's central and 11 regional services gained extensive experience in small and medium scale irrigation schemes and this will no doubt boost the Ministry's pursuance of the long-term program for the rehabilitation of SMSI schemes and increase its efficiency. Several consulting firms and contractors have similarly gained experience, as the project progressed, and learnt how to collaborate with the users of schemes to be rehabilitated. The spate irrigation component, however, did not achieve good results and therefore the project as a whole only partially reached the objectives of physical works and reduction of poverty. The same can be said for public sector management, whose good results were marred by the weaknesses outlined in para. 29. In terms of environmental objectives, a project to rehabilitate irrigation schemes can only have a positive impact, especially if certain measures are taken to improve irrigation practices. However, efforts should be made to ensure that feasibility studies take environmental problems into greater account. That satisfactory assessment is supported by Economic Rates of Return which show the profitability of investing in the rehabilitation of perennial and seasonal schemes. H. FUTURE OPERATION 31. The project is to continue throughout 1997 under KfW's loan. Once ongoing works are completed, a total of 28,000 ha of schemes will have been rehabilitated corresponding to 90% of SMSI 2's target. This additional year will also be used to conduct a pilot training program aimed at MAMVA's technical agents and WUA's members as a precursor to what should turn into a nationwide program. Such training programs are indispensable in providing guidance to the new WUAs. 32. The completion of SMSI 2 project does not signal the end of the long-term rehabilitation program of SMSI schemes; it does, however, bring up the question of the budget that will be allocated to it. In view of the program's merit, it would be worthwhile for the World Bank and KfW to continue providing financial support to the Government of Morocco. 33. In order to enable MAMVA to monitor the long-term rehabilitation program of SMSI schemes, it would be useful if CCSP could systematically provide information on WUA's performance, and could provide regular evaluations of the program's impact on agricultural production and farmers' income. This could be done following the suggestions outlined in para 21. I. KEY LESSONS LEARNT 34. As underlined in the project's SAR, small and medium scale irrigation schemes provide an enormous potential for the development of agricultural production in Morocco. The rehabilitation of schemes offers three advantages with respect to other investments in irrigation: the investment cost is far below that of large-scale or modern SMSI irrigation schemes; farmers on the schemes are accomplished at practicing irrigation and have done so for generations; and the dissemination of small schemes throughout the country means 12 that annual production can be more evenly distributed. The total area rehabilitated by SMSI 1 and 2 projects and other projects amounts to only less than a quarter of thie 250,000 ha being targeted by the long-term program. This program can gain from the lessons learnt from SMSI 2 project: - Sophisticated feasibility studies are not necessary; a substantial reduction in the cost and duration of these studies is possible by limiting them to two phases: a pre-feasibility outline drawn up in collaboration with the users and including a preliminary estimate of the costs involved in the range of basic options, followed by detailed design and preparation of bidding documents. - The studies must not, however, attempt to cut down on the time required to enter into dialogue and cooperate with users in all the various phases of the sub-projects: establishment of the WUA, selection of works, their implementation and training of WUA's representatives. The program will only be thwarted if attempts are made to speed ahead of the rhythm required by the user community in order to think things out and come to a decision. Involvement of WJUAs at all stages of the project from studies to works is indispensable as well as their formal agreement concerning all the project's features - During the studies phase, the issues concerning the WUA's legal status and management should be broached with the user community; these discussions will enable them to set down rules and establish annual water charges etc. The consulting firm should also consult the association in order to design an instruction handbook (NEF) on the O&M of the rehabilitated schemes. - In order to make the best use of the rehabilitation works, the concerned local and regional agricultural services should be strengthened. They must be closely involved in the sub-project at the studies phase so that, once the works are completed, they can be on hand to provide qualified support. Farmers will require technical advice in order to take full advantage of the works. - The job description of the WtUA's "7th board member" must be clearlv outlined so that its role is properly understood. Because this person represents MAMVA, and as such has to ensure that the association complies to its commitments, it should be checked if this role is compatible with his other duties (secretarial-accounting and extension work). 13 In seeking to rehabilitate schemes, it is recommended that clusters of small projects be selected within a given region so that tenders for studies and works could attract a greater number of contractors and thus lead to lower prices. Support and assistance to farmers would be easier to provide. The study on the management of mechanical brigades which is to begin, should provide a wide range of options, including that of removing these brigades and of awarding contracts to private firms for maintenance work. Monitoring of associations on all schemes and evaluation of agricultural production and farmers' income on a sample of schemes should be conducted separately. Economic impact surveys should be assigned to consulting firms. Continuity in the management of the project, at both central and regional levels, is essential to its successful outcome. 14 PART II: STATISTICAL TABLES Table 1: Summary of Assessments A. Achievement of objectives Substantial Partial Negligible Not Applicable Macro policies Sector policies jjE EDi FI Financial objectives EII ] K E Institutional development FEd L --i LI Physical objectives EL fi Li Ei Poverty reduction Li [R Ei Li Gender issues L Li E F Other social objectives Li Li LI] [P1 Environmental objectives Li -I Li Li Public sector management L F[ ED Li Private sector development F3 Li EII Li Other (specify) LII LI] [IIE Li B. Project sustainability Likely Unlikely Uncertain (6; (F) (n Highly C. Bank performance satisfactory Satisfactory Deficient Identification Preparation assistance ED [E Ei Appraisal K] [F] K] Supervision K] R5I EI 15 Highly D. Borrower performance satisfactorv Satisfactory Deficient Preparation L E Implementation E- EE Covenant compliance D [ F Operation (if applicable) [I] Highlv HigWly E. Assessment of outcome satisfactorv Satisfactory Unsatisfactorv unsatisfactory 16 Table 2: Related Bank Loans/Credits Loan/credit title Purpose Year of Status approval Preceding operations 1. Loan 2253-MOR Support the development of the FY 1983 Closed Small and Medium neglected Small and Medium Scale December 1992 Scale Irrigation Irrigation Sub-sector through the Project I creation and rehabilitation of five schemes and the preparation of a second-stage project. 2. Loan 2590-MOR Support the first phase of FY 1985 Closed Agricultural Sector implementation of the Government's June 1987 Adjustment Loan program of adjustment in the agricultural sector. The principal objectives of the program were to improve the growth rate in agriculture within the overall constraints in public resources. 3. Loan 2656-MOR Support and complement the reform FY 1986 Closed Large Scale Irrigation package agreed upon under the First June 1993 Improvement Project Agricultural Sector Adjustment Loan with regard to the irrigation sub-sector through the rehabilitation of about 150,000 ha, the improvement of operation and maintenance operations and the setting up of an efficient management information system. 4. Loan 2885-MOR Support the second phase of FY 1988 Closed Second Agricultural implementation of the Government's April 1992 Sector Adjustment medium-term agricultural sector Loan adjustment program within the framework of a general macro-economic restructuring program. The essential objectives were to foster efficient agricultural growth and to contribute to the reduction of budgetary and current account deficits to manageable levels. 5. Loan 2954-MOR Finance a part of the Government's FY 1988 Closed Second Small and public investment program in small and Decembcr 1996 Medium Scale medium scale irrigation during the Irrigation Project 1988-92 Plan through the renovation of about 120 traditional irrigation schemes and the equipment of seven spate irrigation repair brigades to operate in poverty areas in selected southern provinces. 17 Table 2: Related Bank Loans/Credits (Continued) Loan/credit title Purpose Year of Status approval Following operations 1. Loan 3036-MOR Support the establishment of efficient FY 1989 Closed Agricultural national research and extension June 1996 Research and institutions for the development and Extension Project dissemination of improved agricultural technology so as to increase agricultural productivity, production of food. livestock and cash crops, and farmers' income throughout the country. 2. Loan 3403-MOR To support a 1991/92 time-slice of the FY 1992 Closed Agricultural Sector agricultural sector investment program, to June 1994 Investment Program promote essential policy reform measures to improve the investment process and strengthen MARA's institutional capacity and to continue implementing key sector policy issues. 3. Loan 3587-MOR Nation-wide rehabilitation of large-scale FY 1993 On-going Second Large Scale irrigation systems and associated Irrigation management and policy reforms with a Improvement Project view to increasing efficiency, providing better resource allocation and ensuring long-term sustainability of the sub-sector. 4. Loan 3765-MOR Finance a part of the investment program FY 1994 On-going Second Agricultural of the Ministry of Agriculture for a four- Sector Investment year period (1994/1997). Program 5. Loan 3935-MOR Alleviate the impact of the current severe FY 1996 On-going Emergency Drought drought by providing: (i) rural infrastructure (water and roads) to generate income; (ii) agricultural inputs to restore crop production and (iii) animal feed to safeguard productive livestock. 18 Table 3: Project Timetable Steps in project cycle Date planned Date actual/ latest estimate Identification (Executive Project Summary) May 1983 Preparation 03/04/1987 Appraisal 04/20/1987 Negotiations 05/02/1988 Board presentation 06/14/1988 Signing 01/27/1989 Effectiveness 06/16/1989 KfW Loan Agreement 05/03/1991 Mid-term review 07/01/1994 World Loan closing 12/31/1994 12/31/1996 KfW Loan closing 12/31/1997 Table 4: Loan/Credit Disbursements: Cumulative, Estimated and Actual (US$ thousands) FY 1989 FY 1990 FY 1991 FY 1992 FY 1993 FY' 1994 FY 1995 FY 1996 FY 1997 Appraisal estimate 1,700 3,400 7,900 13,500 19.200 23.000 23.000 23.000 23.000 Actual - 1,116 2,166 4,153 6.839 8.698 11.676 14.493 16.300"' Actual as% of - 33 27 31 36 38 51 - 83' estimate Date offinal - - - - - - - - 04,30/1997 disbursement a! 71 kg - Estimate as of 02/27/1997. 19 Table 5: Key Indicators for Project Implementation Key implementation indicators Unit Estimated Actual Actual as a % in SAR/President's Report of Estimate A. Renovation Works - Perennial and Seasonal Less than 100 ha Nb 73 14 19 ha 3,000 830 28 More than l00 ha Nb 38 21 55 ha 21,000 21,680 103 Sub-total Nb 111 35 32 ha 24,000 22,510 94 - Spate Less than 500 ha Nb 3 2 67 ha 1.(00 340 34 More than 500 ha Nb 6 2 33 ha 7.0)0 2,300 33 Sub-total Nb 9 4 44 ha 8.000 2.640 33 Total Nb 120 39 33 ha 32,000 25,150a/ 79 B. Spate Irrigation Repair Brigades - Wheel Excavator Nb 7 7 100 - Back-hoe Tractor Nb 7 7 100 - Angledozer Nb 2 2 100 - Compactor Nb 7 7 100 - 7 t Truck Nb 7 7 100l - Ancillary Equipment Nb 7 7 1(0 - 4WD Vehicle Nb 7 7 100 C. Vehicles and Equipment - Light Vehicle Nb 14 12 86 - 4WD Vehicle Nb 14 15 107 - Office Equipment DH'M 1.1 2.7 234 D. Studies, Training & Technical Assistance - Studies Nb 114 45 39 ha 24,000 43,477 181 - Training DH'M 1.1 4.5 409 - Technical Assistance DH'M 0.5 0.7 140 a/ Assumed to reach 28,000 (88%) by end 1997. 20 Table 6: Key Indicators for Project Operation No key indicators for project operation were defined in the SAR. Project economic evaluation has been based on various assumptions related to cropping patterns, crop yields inputs, etc. These assumptions are assessed in Table 9 and Appendix A. Table 7: Studies Included in Project Purpose as defined lmpact l Study at appraisal/redefined Status of study 1. Studies required for the selection and the implementation of the renovation works were included as a separate project component. The main text and Table 5 therefore present their purpose, status and impact. No other studies were defined in the SAR. 2. Improvement of the During the January 1994 Expert is being mechanical brigades supervision mission, it was recruited. performance. agreed that a study would be undertaken in order to identify ways to improve the performance of the mechanical brigades. 21 Table 8A: Project Costs Appraisal estimlate (USS'000) Actual/latest estimate (US$s000)a Local Foreign Total Local Foreign 'I'otal costs costs costsb/ costs b Item Investment Costs | lRenovation Works 25,240 11,940 37,180 16,312 7,710 24,022 2. Equipment for Brigades 1,150 1,720 2,870 1,341 2,000 3,341 3. Vehicles 200 240 440 374 450 824 4. Office Equipmenit 80 60 140 171 130 301 5. Studies, Training and 670 710 1,380 2,933 3,110 6,043 Technical Assistance Sub-total 27,340 14,670 42,010 21,131 13,400 34,530 Recurrent Costs 1. O&M Brigades Equipment 1,010 1,340 2,350 1,030 1 ,340 2,370 2. O&M Vehicles 220 410 630 230 420 650 Sub-total 1,230 1,750 2,980 1,260 1,760 3,020 TotalProjectCosts 28,570 16,420 44,990 22,391 15,160 37,550 i Estimate as of 02/27/1997. b/ Based on the appraisal's average rates of local and foreign costs. Table 8B: Project Financing Appraisal estimate (US$M) Actual/latest estimate (US$M) Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total costs costs costs costs Source IBRD/IDA 12.9 10.1 23.0 19.Oa, Cofinancing institutions 7.4 4.4 11.8 5 lb/l Other external sources - - - - Domestic contribution 8.8 1.3 10.1 13.4 TOTAL 29.1 15.8 44.9 37.5 Estimate as of 02/27/1997. b/ Estimate as of 02/17/1997. 22 Table 9: Economic Costs and Benefits Appendix A presents the assumptions which are underlying the economic analysis. As shown hereafter, the economic rates of return are satisfactory. ICR Internal Rate Switching Values' of Return Costs I Benefits I ~~~~~~~~~~~~~.................................................% ......................... Ouled Boukhalfa 24 + 232 - 70 Outat 20 + 134 -57 Tazarine 24 + 189 -65 Draa 32 + 336 - 77 Total Perennial and Seasonal 23 + 191 - 66 Irrigation Perimeters2 Total Project3 15 + 68 - 41 These rates are similar to the rates calculated at appraisal. SAR Internal Rate Switching Values of Return Costs I Benefits I ~~~~~~~~~...................................................% .......................... Amizmiz 24 + 50 - 33 Guigou 22 + 34 - 26 |At Messaoud 12 + 5 - 6 Agadir Lahnia 46 + 237 - 70 Total Project 20 + 31 - 24 1 At an assumed opportunity cost of capital of 10%. 2 Excluding benefits and costs related to spate irrigation. 3 Excluding benefits and including costs related to spate irrigation. 23 Table 10: Status of Legal Covenants Original Revised Covenant Present fulfillmeent fulfillment Descriptioii of Agreement Section type status date date covenant Commilenits Loan 3.02 (b) 13 C N/A N/A Apply agreed criteria in the selection of None L2954 Sched. 5 irrigation perimeters to be rehabilitated Sect. 11 4.01 1 C N/A N/A Maintain adequate accounts and apply None suitable audit procedures; audit report and certified summary accounts to be submitted to Bank within 6 months of end of fiscal year 4.02 2 CP N/A N/A Apply system of water charges to None recover 100% of O&M costs and at least 10 of inivestimient cost 5.01 (a) 4 C 06/30/90 N/A Cofinancing Agreements to becomile None effective by 06/30/1990 Sched. 4 5 C N/A N/A Use of local competitionl bidding NOnCe l Part C2 procedures acceptable to thiC Bank Sched. 4 5 C N/A NIA Award of contracts for training, stuLdies None Section 11 and technical assistanice in accordance with Bank guidelines Sched. 5 5 C N/A N/A Maintain the Consultative None Sect. IA Coordinating Committee Sched. 5 5 C N/A N/A Maintain Project Manager with None Sect. IBI adequate staff Sched. 5 5 CP N/A N/A Maintai tile Project Coordination and Nonic Sect. IB2 Monitoring Unit appropriately staffed Sched.5 2 CP N/A N/A Water Users Associations to be None Sect. IIB established for eacl schemile to carry out O&M and Govemniienit to conclude arrangements with the WUAs to apply systemn of water charges Status: C - Complied with CD - Compliance after Delay NC - Not Complied with SOON - Compliance Expected in Reasonably Short Time CP - Complied with Partially NYD - Not Yet Due Covenant Class 1. Accounts/audit 2. Financial perfonnance/gelierate revenue from beneticiaries 3. Flow and utilization of Project funds 4. Counterpart funding 5. Management aspects of the Project or of its executing agency 6. Environmental covenants 7. Involuntary resettlement 8. Indigenous people 9. Monitoring, review and reporting 10. Implementation 11. Sectoral or cross-sectoral budgetary or other resource allocation 12. Sectoral or cross-sectoral regulatory/institutional action 13. Other 24 Table 11: Compliance with Operational Manual Statements Statement number and title I Describe and comment on lack of compliance Overall, there was compliance with applicable Bank Operational Manual Statements. Table 12: Bank Resources: Staff Inputs Stage of Planned Revised Actual project cycle Weeks US$'OOO Weeks US$'0(( Weeks US$000 Preparation to N/A N/A N/A N/A 136.8 31.4 appraisal l Appraisal N/A N/A N/A N/A Negotiations through N/A N/A N/A N/A 40.0 84.0 Board approval Supervision 96.7 272.5 91.2 251.3 Completion 8.0 29.7 8. Oa' 1 b/ TOTAL N/A N/A N/A N/A 276.0d/ 368.3bl i/ As of 03/31/1997. b/ As of 02/07/1997. 25 Table 13: Bank Resources: Missions Perfomiaice rating.' proSect cycle Mono Number Specialized Implermen- Develop- project cycle Month/of Days in staff skills tat ioni ment Ty'pes of year persons fie represented' status objectives problems" Through appraisal N/A N/A N/A N/A Appraisal through N/A N/A N/A N/A - - - Board approval Supervision: 1 Nov./Dec. 1990 2 15 A, 1 2 1 v S 0,S 2 June 1991 2& 12 A E 2 1. S, W 3 Nov./Dec. 1991 2 12 A [ 2 1 NA, W 4 May1992 2 12 A,] 2 2 M.N,O 5 February 1993 2 N/A A, 1 2 2 B. M 6 June1993 11 9 A 2 1. C, M 7 Jan./Feb. 1994 3 11 A. 1, M 2 1 13. C. M, N S (MTR) June/July 1994 2" 12 A, F S S MI. N. lI 9 March/April '995 1 33 1 S S N. D, F 10 March 1996 1 I S S A. 1). M. O, F N/A: Non Available MTR: Mid-Tenn Review a! A: Agronomist; I: Irrigation Engineer, E: Economist; M: Monitoring and Evaluation Specialist; F: F-inaticial Analyst. b/ I: Problem free or minor problems; 2: Moderate problems; 3: Major problems, S: Satisfactory. C! A: Support actions to improve agricultural production; B: Beneficiary participation; C: Works' Ullit cost. D: Delays in disbursements; F: Shortage of funds; M: Monitoring of agricultural development; N: Management ol tlhe mechanical brigades; 0: WUA organization; S: Slowness in preparing studies; U: Project Coordination) and Monitoring Unit W: Works' progress. d/ Not taking into account specialists financed by KfW. 26 KINGDOM OF MOROCCO SECOND SMALL AND MEDIUM SCALE IRRIGATION PROJECT APPENDIX A MISSION'S AIDE-MEMOIRE Appendix A Aide-memoire de la mission pr6paratoire 1. INTRODUCITION 1. A la demiande du Gouvernement marocain, de la Banque mondiale et de la KfW, une mission du Programme de cooperation FAO-Banque mondiale 1 a sejourne au Maroc du 13 au 27 fevrier 1997, afin d'initier la preparation du rapport d'achevement de la seconde phase du projet de petite et moyenne hydraulique (PMH 2). La mission, dont le travail a ete efficacement organise par le Service de la r6habilitation et la Cellule de coordination et de suivi du projet (CCSP) qui y est basee, a travaille avec des specialistes de divers departements techniques du Ministere de l'agriculture et de la mise en valeur agricole (MAMVA) ainsi qu'avec les responsables de l'ORMVA de Ouarzazate et des DPA de Boulemane, de Khenifra et d'Azilal, ou des visites rapides ont ete organisees. La PMH 2, en effet, est intervenue dans 39 p6rimetres dissemines dans 1 7 provinces et, du fait de l'impossibilite de les visiter tous, la mission en a selectionn6 5, representatifs des principaux types. Les conclusions provisoires de la mission, resumees dans cet Aide-memoire, ont et presentees au Gouvernement lors de la reunion de synthese tenue le jeudi 27 fevrier 1997, sous la pr6sidence de M. Rahali, Directeur de la Direction des amenagements hydro-agricoles (DAHA). -i. LES OBJECTIFS DU PROJET 2. La seconde phase du projet PMH s'inscrit, comme la premiere, dans le cadre du programme a long terme qui prevoit la rehabilitation de 250 000 ha environ de perimetres de PMH en une vingtaine d'ann6es. Les objectifs de ce programme concernent la lutte contre la pauvrete et une meilleure satisfaction des besoins alimentaires nationaux. La remise en etat de nombreux petits reseaux eparpilles dans le pays doit perniettre, en effet, d'augmenter les revenus d'un grand nombre de petits agriculteurs tout en contribuant a satisfaire les besoins alimentaires des zones urbaines voisines. Ces objectifs seront recherch6s en poursuivant et en renfor,ant I'approche systematique adoptee au cours de la premniere phase. Cette approche comprend: (a) la cr6ation d'Associations d'usagers des eaux agricoles (AUEA), chargees de l'exploitation et de la maintenance des reseaux et du recouvremenit de la part des couts d'investissement A charge des usagers, et (b) I'acquisition d'experience dans le domainie des p6rimetres de PMH par les services centraux du MAMVA et par ses directions provinciales. 3. Le projet a ete con,u comme un programme sous-sectoriel dont les trois principales composantes concernent: (a) la renovation d'environ 120 perimetres irrigues traditionnels d'une superficie totale de pres de 32 000 ha dont 8 000 ha d'epandage de crues, (b) I'acquisition de Ch. Lauwers, Econiomilistc, Chlef d missioin, 0. Farcy. Spjcialistc cn suivi-dvaluation. Consultant. T. Nguyen. SpVcialisic en irrigation, Consultant et J-C. Rocaboy, Sp&cialistc ci organisalions paysaniiiales, Constiltiant dc la K[W. M. B. Liche, Chargc du projct A la KRW a participc aux visites dc terrain ct aux discussionis finales ct M. V. T. Nguycn. Charge du projet A la Banquc mondialc. aux discussionis fiiaics uniqucmcnt. 27 sept brigades de reparation des perimetres irrigues par epandage de crues, et (c) le renforcement des structures centrales et regionales concemres: vehicules et materiel de bureau, assistance technique et formation du personnel, etudes sp6ciales, essais agronomiques en zones d'epandage de crues et frais de fonctionnement. La premiere des quatre tranches pr6vues, comprenait les quatre perimetres etudies lors de la preparation. Des criteres ont egalement ete retenus pour la selecticn des sous-projets ulterieurs qui devaient faire l'objet d'etudes detaillees soit pour les petits perimetres par les DPA et les ORMVA concemrs, soit pour les autres par des bureaux d'etudes. Le co6t total du projet a ete estime a 359,9 millions de DH ou 44,9 millions de $ EU dont 23 millions de $ EU devaient etre pretes par la Banque mondiale, 11,8 millions de $ EU fournis par la Cooperation financiere allemande (KfW) et le solde (10,1 millions de $ EU, y inclus 7,2 millions de $ EU de taxes et droits et la participation financiere des usagers) a la charge du Gouvernement. 111. RESULTATS AlTEINTS PAR LE PROJET 4. Les rapports annuels 6tablis par la CCSP montrent que les objectifs quantitatifs du projet ont ete, en grande partie, atteints ou le seront prochainement. De plus, les visites dans les cinq perimtres choisis laissent une impression generale positive. La qualite g6n6rale des travaux effectues, la motivation des agriculteurs en matiere d'intensification de la production et leur implication actuelle en matiere de gestion et d'entretien des reseaux laissent presager une progressive augmentation de leurs revenus et la durabilite des amrnagements. Ce bon resultat doit cependant etre nuance par le fait que 7 ans ont et6 n6cessaires au lieu des 5 ann6es pr6vues, que le fonctionnement des brigades m6canis6es pose des problemes et que le systeme d'evaluation de l'impact economique du projet ne fonctionne pas encore. De plus, I'appui aux AUIEA a concerne principalement leur creation et devrait maintenant porter sur leur organisation et leur fonctionnement sous peine de voir une majorite d'entre elles ne pas etre capables de passer sans heurt d'une gestion traditionnelle A une gestion moderne. 5. Bien que la mission n'ait pas encore eu le temps d'analyser l'ensemble des donnees collectees A Rabat et lors des visites de terrain, il est cependant possible de presenter quelques conclusions preliminaires. Ces conclusions seront regroupees en six paragraphes: les etudes, les travaux de rehabilitation, les autres realisations, les AUEA, le developpement agricole et le suivi-6valuation. A. Les etudes 6. 11 avait ete prevu que les services techniques des DPA et des ORMVA prendraient la responsabilite de la pr6paration des etudes des perimrtres de moins de 100 ha (73 perimetres pour une superficie de 3,000 ha) et que pour les perimetres plus importants (47 perimetres totalisant 29,000 ha), le projet ferait appel A des bureaux d'6tudes prives. L'implication des services specialises des DPA et des ORMVA dans la preparation des etudes a ete moindre que prevu du fait que la selection n'a retenu que 14 petits perimetres et que 21 dossiers ont ete confies a des consultants. Le cout de ces 22 etudes et des 12 autres preparees afin de constituer un portefeuille de projets, est de 62,5 millions de DH soit cinq fois environ ce qui avait ete prevu lors de l'evaluation du projet. Elles concernent 43 477 ha soit 50 % de plus que les 29,000 ha programmes, L'important depassement des couts ne peut donc pas s'expliquer par la seule variation des superficies. La principale raison est une sous-estimation de ces 28 couits. Cette sous-estimation provient des exigences de l'evaluation en matiere de: (a) s6lection des perimetres, et (b) preparation des dossiers. Lors de la preparation du projet PMH 2, il n'a pas suffisamment ete tenu compte du fait que les perimetres a rehabiliter sont cultives depuis plusieurs generations et que les travaux a y faire sont, en gen6ral, techniquement simples. II n'est donc pas besoin d'etudes pedologiques pour pouvoir estimer les benefices futurs ni de releves topographiques complets, de couvertures aeriennes et de photorestitutions detaillees pour etablir le plan des travaux. De plus, l'etablissement des plans parcellaires est tres on6reux. 7. La longueur des etudes prevues est egalement responsable d'une partie des retards enregistr6s dans la mise en oeuvre du projet. Une simplification des etudes et leur reordonnancement permettraient de gagner plusieurs mois. 8. Des la conception du projet, la necessite d'impliquer les usagers dans le choix des solutions techniques a ete reconnue. II n'a cependant pas ete facile de passer d'une simple consultation des agriculteurs a un veritable dialogue qui leur permette de participer aux choix apres avoir ete informe des avantages et inconvenients des diverses solutions. Une majorite de techniciens de ]'Administration et des bureaux d'etudes n'avait, en effet, qu'une experience limitee de ce genre d'approche. Une amelioration progressive de la participation a pu etre notee au fur et a mesure de la preparation des diverses tranches et il semble qu'actuellement les divers intervenants sont convaincus de son interet. 9. La qualite des etudes, bien que pouvant etre amelioree, est globalement acceptable. La participation des usagers a la selection des variantes techniques ne semble pas avoir intrinsequement amelior6 leur qualite mais elle a certainement reduit le nombre de contestations des agriculteurs au cours des travaux. 11 les a egalement amene a participer a la surveillance de ces travaux, ce qui a certainement eu un impact sur leur qualite. B. Les travaux de rehabilitation 10. A la fin du projet, 39 perimetres totalisant 25 156 ha avaient ete rehabilites. Il est d'autre part prevu que la superficie atteindra 28,070 ha a la fin de l'annee 1997 lorsque l'Accord avec la KfW sera cl6ture. En matiere de superficie, les objectifs (32,000 ha) ont donc ete atteints a 80 % et le seront a 90 % lorsque les travaux en cours seront termines. La r6partition de cette superficie entre les p6rimetres a irrigation perenne et saisonniere et a irrigation par epandage de crue montre que la premiere cat6gorie depassera les objectifs a la fin 1997 alors que la seconde ne les atteindra qu'a moins de 50 %. En effet, les sous-projets a irrigation perenne et saisonniere couvriront 24 485 ha d6passant donc tres legerement les objectifs retenus (24,000 ha). Les p6rimetres a epandage de crues ne couvriront, par contre, que 3 585 ha, soit 45 % des 8,000 ha prevus. Les couts relativement eleves de la r6habilitation de ces perimetres et donc leur rentabilite marginale expliquent pourquoi il a ete mis un frein a leur financement. C'est egalement une question de rentabilite qui a reduit le nombre de petits perimetres selectionnes, a savoir la difficulte a trouver des sous-projets satisfaisants au critere de coat par ha (moins de 1,500 $ EU par ha en prix 1987). II est, en effet, onereux pour un entrepreneur d'installer un chantier pour quelques dizaines d'hectares. C'est la raison pour laquelle, il est propose de 29 financer ulterieurement des grappes de petits projets situes les uns pres des autres, marches qui pourraient int6resser bureaux d'etudes et entreprises de genie civil. 11. La qualit6 des travaux, dans son ensemble, peut etre consideree comme satisfaisante. Les Aide-memoire des missions de concertation mentionnent neanmoins quelques problemes mineurs. Cette impression a et6 confirmee par les courtes visites de terrain de la mission. L'organisation du contr6le des travaux y a certainement ete pour quelque chose de meme que la decision de confier au Laboratoire public d'essai et d'etudes le suivi de la qualite des travaux. Le r6le de certaines AUEA doit egalement 12. 8tre signale; leurs membres qui visitaient les chantiers, assuraient un contr6le continu des activites des entrepreneurs et informaient les techniciens de l'Administration des anomalies constatees. 13. Les travaux de rehabilitation ont pris du retard par rapport au calendrier fixe qui prevoyait que la premiere tranche de 7 800 ha serait terminee a la fin de l'annee 1990 et que les seconde, troisi6me et quatrieme tranches de 8,000 ha environ chacune, seraient r6ceptionnees A la mi-1992, mi- 1993 et fin 1993 respectivement. Or, ce n'est qu'en 1994 que le demier perimetre de la premiere tranche a ete receptionne; de plus, au 31 decembre 1996, les tranches 2, 3 et 4 etaient respectivement terminees A 93, 82 et 80 %. Les principales raisons qui permettent d'expliquer ce retard sont la duree des etudes, les problemes rencontres par certains entrepreneurs, ce qui a amene I'Administration A resilier quelques contrats, les elements naturels tels que des crues et la difficulte qu'il y a A travailler dans des perimetres cultives en essayant de gener le moins possible les agriculteurs dans leur travail. 14. Les cofits des travaux sont 1lgerement inferieurs A ce qui avait e prevu. Ramene a l'hectare rehabilite, its s'etablissent A 8 500 DH alors qu'ils avaient ete estimes A 9 300 DH. Ce bon resultat met en lumiere le fait que le nombre d'entreprises de travaux publics capables de mener A bien les travaux de r6habilitation de petits p6rimetres irrigues est actuellement suffisant pour assurer une veritable concurrence lors des soumissions. C. Les autres realisations 15. La livraison des brigades mecanisees aux DPA et ORMVA concernes s'est faite avec un certain retard, les quatre premieres n'ayant ete livrees qu'en 1990 et la derniere en 1993 soit avec respectivement deux et quatre ans de retard par rapport aux previsions. Ces brigades n'ont effectue qu'une partie des travaux d'entretien qu'il avait ete pr6vu qu'elles fassent et leur gestion pose des problemes aux responsables des DPA et des ORMVA. C'est la raison pour laquelle une etude devrait etre faite dans les meilleurs delais de maniere A r6pondre A la question de savoir si de telles unites peuvent etre gerees economiquement par les structures concernees et dans l'affirmative, definir les mesures A prendre. 16. Le programme d'achat de vehicules et de materiel de bureau a donne lieu a des depassements de budgets. 27 des 28 vehicules prevus ont ete achetes A des prix unitaires largement sup6rieurs a ceux du rapport d'evaluation. En ce qui conceme le materiel de bureau, la diff6rence est due A des achats non prevus pour les services exterieurs. 30 17. Les fonds prevus pour l'Assistance technique ont et utilises pour financer le laboratoire LPEE. La formation a beneficie A 154 ing6nieurs dans les domaines de l'utilisation de la micro- informatique, de la conception des travaux de rehabilitation et de l'organisation des travaux d'entretien. 18. Les essais agronomiques dans les perimetres irrigues par 6pandage de crue n'ont pas encore commenc6; le marche est en cours d'engagement. D. Les AUEA 19. Le rapport d'6valuation insistait particulierement sur l'importance pour les usagers de se grouper des la phase d'etudes. Il en avait d'ailleurs fait un critere de choix des p6rimetres A rehabiliter. La creation d'AUEA legales a cependant et retardee jusqu'en mai 1992, date A laquelle a et publie au Bulletin officiel le decret d'application de la loi sur les AUEA. La conversion des associations de fait en associations "de jure" a pu alors commencer. Il existe actuellement 73 AUEA dans les 39 p6rimetres concernes par le projet; d'autres AUEA ont et cre6es par des usagers ayant introduit une demande de rehabilitation de leurs perimetres. II apparait donc que le message transmis aux communautes villageoises par le projet a et bien compris et que ces communautes creent actuellement des AUEA sans reticences particulieres. La CCSP, avec l'aide des Services des amenagements des DPA et des ORMVA, en effet, a pu convaincre les usagers que la creation d'une association ne changerait pas leurs droits ancestraux sur la terre et sur l'eau. 20. Une fois constituee, ces AUEA n'ont pas, en g6neral, eu une vie organique tres active. L'Assemblee generale ne s'est pas tenue, les decisions du bureau n'ont pas ete consignees par ecrit, le niveau des cotisations annuelles n'a souvent pas et fixe, etc... Et pourtant, la gestion et 1'entretien des perimetres rehabilites ne semblent poser aucun probleme majeur du fait que l'organisation traditionnelle a continue A fonctionner apres la fin des travaux. II apparait donc que les techniciens n'ont pas eu le temps ou n'ont pas reussi A convaincre les usagers des avantages des AUEA. Les usagers n'ont pas compris que ce qui leur etait demande, 6tait de: (a) formaliser le fonctionnement de cette association traditionnelle en lui donnant progressivement le cadre juridique prevu par la loi et son decret d'application, et (b) systematiser la maintenance et l'exploitation du p6rimetre pour perenniser les investissements consentis par l'Etat. 21. Le rapport d'evaluation du projet PMH 2 n'a pas analyse le fonctionnement des associations traditionnelles et leur capacite A gerer des perimetres de petite hydraulique. Cette analyse aurait permis de justifier le choix de la creation d'AUEA et de definir un programme d'information et de formation pour permettre aux usagers de mieux comprendre les regles du nouveau cadre juridique et de l'utiliser rationnellement. Heureusement ce probleme a et6 per,u en cours de projet et un appui a comrnence A etre donne aux AUEA. C'est dans ce cadre qu'un programme pilote de formation de techniciens et de representants d'AUEA va prochainement debuter avec l'appui de la KfW. 22. Afin que les AUEA puissent, dans le futur, jouer pleinement leur r6le en matiere de gestion et d'entretien des reseaux, il est indispensable que la CCSP intensifie ses efforts de maniere A ce que les DPA et les ORMVA apportent A ces associations l'appui n6cessaire. II est propose d'attendre les r6sultats du programme pilote qui va demarrer prochainement et de progressivement integrer 31 l'ensemble des p6rimetres concem6s et des AUEA a un programme national d'appui aux associations. II n'est pas trop tard pour mettre en oeuvre ce programme car les problemes de gestion des perimetres qui se posent actuellement aux associations sont encore g6rables de maniere traditionnelle. II faut par contre, des a present, preparer les associations a faire face aux problemes qui se poseront dans cinq ou dix ans. L'entretien et le fonctionnement devraient 8tre formalises sous forme d'une notice d'entretien et de fonctionnement (NEF). Deux NEF sont actuellement en cours d'elaboration pour les perimetres de Talghoumt et de Toroug. Ces notices permettront: (a) aux AUEA de connaitre les diverses taches de maintenance et d'exploitation ainsi que leurs couts, et (b) A l'Administration de verifier que cet entretien a bien ete fait. E. Ie developpement agricole 23. II est encore trop tot pour pouvoir estimer avec une certaine precision le developpement agricole que les rehabilitations vont susciter. Les travaux dans la plupart des perimetres concernes par le proj'et viennent r6cemment d'ere acheves ou ne le sont pas encore et les agriculteurs n'ont pas encore eu le temps de modifier substantiellement leur systeme de production. Les donnees collectees par les DPA et ORMVA pour la preparation du rapport d'achevement ne donnent qu'une idee imprecise de ce que pourrait etre 1'evolution de la production. Cette premiere indication precisee par les visites de terrain montre un debut d'intensification du systeme soit par une plus grande part reservee aux cultures de rente soit au niveau des memes cultures par une augmentation de l'utilisation des intrants. Cette orientation 6tait previsible du fait que les agriculteurs de la majorite des perimetres de PMH, ont toujours vecu dans un contexte d'economie d'eau, d'eau rare et precieuse et qu'il est naturel pour eux d'utiliser toute ressource additionnelle en eau avec soin, dans la mesure de leurs connaissances techniques. 24. Des que l'eau devient disponible sans risque serieux de penurie, les agriculteurs .orivilegient, selon la vocation des perimetres, les cultures fruitieres telles que les pommiers, les amandiers, les oliviers, les palmiers dattiers, etc..., les cultures maraich6res et les cultures fourrageres et reduisent les jacheres. D'autre part, ayant limite les quantites d'intrants du fait du manque d'eau, ils peuvent actuellement augmenter les doses; ils vont egalement mieux entretenir leurs cultures, y consacrant une partie du temps qu'auparavant ils utilisaient A la maintenance du reseau en terre. 25. Le degre d'intensification que choisira chaque agriculteur dependra de son niveau technique et de ses analyses couts-benefices pour les principales sp6culations. Tout appui que pourra lui donner les services techniques locaux en matiere de choix de speculations, d'itineraires techniques, de commercialisation et de transformation des produits, etc... lui permettra d'affiner son analyse et d'ameliorer sa rentabilite. Les perimetres situes dans les zones d'action des Centres de mise en valeur (CMV) seront, de ce point de vue, privilegies, si comme cela a ete dit a la mission, ce sont les agriculteurs qui precisent aux techniciens les themes A approfondir. II n'en sera pas de meme des autres perimetres, a moins que l'Administration n'y mette sur pied prochainement un service d'appui aux agriculteurs. 32 26. Au fur et a mesure que la production augmentera, certaines activites peri-agricoles telles que: centre de collecte de lait, centre de conditionnement de fruits, pressoirs, etc... pourront se developper, diversifiant ainsi l'activite et creant une valeur ajoutee supplementaire. F. Le suivi-evaluation 27. Le projet PMH 2 avait prevu un suivi des realisations et une evaluation de son impact economique (productions, revenus et rentabilit6 economique). Le suivi du programme de rehabilitation a 6te realis6 de fa,on satisfaisante et les rapports semestriels de la CCSP ont donne une information r6guliere sur l'execution des diverses phases. Par contre, l1'valuation de l'impact economique a pose et continue a poser des problemes. Elle merite donc une analyse plus detaillee. 28. Du fait des difficultes a mettre en oeuvre le systeme d'evaluation prevu, une mission de consultation a, en 1994, defini un systeme simplifie de gestion et d'aide a la prise de decision pour les quatre niveaux concernes par le programme: AUEA, CT et CMV, DPA et ORMVA et CCSP. II comportait des donnees sur les productions v6getales et animales et leur commercialisation, sur les ressources en eau et sur le suivi administratif et comptable des AUEA. Ces informations obtenues sur la base de declarations des producteurs devaient etre croisees avec celles provenant d'une collecte de donnees effectuee par la DPAE sur un echantillon d'exploitations. Cinq perimetres ont et retenus pour une phase test '. A ce jour, les donnees parvenues a la CCSP proviennent de deux perimetres pour la campagne 1994/95 et de quatre perimetres pour 1995/96. Les donn6es de la campagne 1994/95 ont ete saisies par la CCSP selon un format propose par la DPAE pour permettre un traitement selon un logiciel d'analyse statistique. Considerant le faible nombre de variables collectees et la taille des echantillons, cette option est certainement trop ambitieuse. 29. Le systeme d'information repose sur la presence sur place du 7eme membre du bureau des AUEA. Mais celui-ci, souvent agent du CT, ne dispose que de peu de moyens de fonctionnement et si le CT n'est pas situe a proximite immediate du perimetre, le manque de moyens de deplacement est souvent la justification de la difficulte de la collecte des donnees. 30. Le suivi des associations et la collecte des donnees pour 1'evaluation de l'impact de la rehabilitation sur la mise en valeur agricole et les revenus des agriculteurs devraient etre dissocies. Si la collecte des donnees sur la mise en valeur peut etre effectuee sur un 6chantillon representatif de perimetre, le suivi des AUEA doit concemer l'ensemble des perimetres afin que la cellule d'appui aux Associations puisse organiser son programme d'intervention. Actuellement, le responsable du suivi des AUEA au sein de la CCSP ne dispose que des informations qu'il a pu collecter lors de ses tournees et de celles transmises par les services provinciaux a sa demande. En sa qualite de 7eme membre du bureau, le representant de l'Administration devrait transmettre annuellement a la CCSP les informations de base sur les associations, telles que: situation financiere, principales activites menees par l'association Constatant les difficultes d'application du dispositif propose, Ia mission de concertafion Gouvemement marocain/BIRD/KfW de mars 1996 a propose une simplification de ce systeme en reduisant a deux niveaux la structure du systeme d'information (AUEA et CCSP) et en limitant l'information au minimum necessaire pour une dvaluation de l'impact sur la production et de la situation financiere des AUEA. Cinq pdrimetres (trois ddjA retenus par le premier systeme et deux nouveaux) ont etd retenus pour appliquer cette nouvelle simplification. 33 y inclus 1'entretien du reseau, decisions prises par le bureau, etc..., ce qui n'occasionnerait pas de frais supplementaires. WV. COUTS DU PROJET ET FINANCEMENT 31. Le coOt du projet PMH 2 atteignait, au 31 decembre 1996, la somme de 332,1 millions de DH. Ce montant represente 92 % des cofits prevus lors de l'6valuation du projet pour des travaux depassant les 80 % des previsions et des foumitures d'engins, de vehicules et d'equipements superieurs aux estimations de la mission d'evaluation. Les differences les plus significatives entre les estimatior.s prealables et les cofits effectifs concement les travaux (para 13) et les etudes (para 6). La premiere a reduit les depenses de 83 millions de DH du fait d'une part d'une reduction des superficies rehabilitees et d'autre part d'un coat unitaire inferieur aux previsions. Les 6tudes ont coute 37 millions de plus qu'estime par suite de superficies plus grandes que prevues et de coats unitaires largement superieurs aux estimations. 32. Les decaissements de la Banque mondiale n'atteignaient le 3 fevrier 1997 que 15 millions de $ EU soit 65 % du montant du pret. D'autres decaissements pourront neanmoins encore se faire d'ici le 30 avril 1997; ces decaissements sont actuellement estimes a 4 millions de $ EU, ce qui amenerait le total a 19 millions de $ EU soit 83 % des 23 millions de $ EU qui etaient disponibles. Sur un pret de 21,5 millions de DEM de la KfW, 7,5 millions de DEM avaient et decaiss6s au 17 fevrier 1997. Bien qu'il reste encore 13 millions de DEM disponibles pour le financement des travaux de rehabilitation, une consommation totale de ce credit est encore possible car la date limite d'utilisation des fonds est le 31 decembre 1997. V. DURABILITE 33. Trois conditions essentielles doivent ere remplies pour que la perennite du projet soit assur6e: la qualite des travaux de rehabilitation, des revenus agricoles qui permettent aux usagers de financer un entretien correct et une organisation de ces usagers qui garantissent cet entretien. Ces trois conditions peuvent etre remplies dans le cas du projet PMH 2 comme le montre les paragraphes qui suivent. 34. La qualite des travaux de rehabilitation depend de celle des etudes et de celle des travaux proprement dit. La qualite des etudes revues par la mission est globalemenit acceptable (para 9). Elle s'est progressivement amelioree du fait d'une participation accrue des usagers au choix des variantes techniques. Les travaux ont egalement ete d'une qualite globalement acceptable du fait d'un suivi regulier qui pour les demieres tranches a beneficie de l'attention des usagers (para 11). 35. Bien qu'il soit trop t6t pour pouvoir estimer avec une certaine precision l'evolution future de la production agricole et des revenus des agriculteurs, les premiers elements indiquent que 1'eau disponible sera, en general, bien utilisee et que l'accent sera mis sur les cultures a haute valeur ajout6e (para 22). Les revenus des agriculteurs ne devraient pas constituer un frein au bon entretien futur du 34 r6seau, surtout que dans les principales regions de PMH, 1'eau est un facteur limitant et que les habitants en connaissent la valeur. Ils donneront certainement au maintien en etat du perimetre une priorite suffisante. 36. Les associations traditionnelles ont poursuivi, apres la fin des travaux de rehabilitation, leurs taches anterieures de gestion et d'entretien des reseaux. Les donnees foumies A la mission, confirmees par les courtes visites de terrain, indiquent que la gestion et 1'entretien de ces perimetres neufs sont actuellement satisfaisants. II faut n6anmoins penser des maintenant a mettre en place un systeme base sur le versement par les usagers de redevances annuelles. Ceci sera facilite par l'operation pilote de formation de techniciens de l'Administration et de membres des AUEA que la DAIHA, avec l'aide du Fonds allemand de formation et de perfectionnement, va prochainement lancer. Cette formation devrait aider les AUEA A progressivement se substituer aux associations traditionnelles en matiere de gestion et d'entretien du reseau, leur cadre juridique devant leur permettre de faire face aux problemes complexes de gestion qui risquent de se poser d'ici quelques annees. VI. LECONS A TIRER 37. Il serait presomptueux, avant d'avoir analyse plus en detail les donn6es collectees au cours de cette mission, de vouloir tirer les le,ons du projet PMIH 2. On peut cependant indiquer un certain nombre de points qui semblent particulierement importants et qui seront completes et developpes dans le rapport d'achevement. La liste provisoire de ces points se presente comme suit: (i) simplifier et reordonnancer les etudes de maniere A reduire leur duree et leur coat; (ii) continuer a impliquer les usagers des le debut des etudes de maniere a assurer l'appropriation des projets; (iii) aborder avec les usagers des le debut des etudes les questions relatives au cadre juridique des AUEA et A leur fonctionnement; les aider a etablir leur reglement interieur, y inclus la fixation de la redevance annuelle; (iv) aider les AUEA a e1aborer leur notice d'entretien et de fonctionnement; (v) impliquer les services agricoles des la phase d'etudes de maniere A ce qu'ils appuient les agriculteurs des que l'eau sera disponible; (vi) clarifier le r6le du 7eme membre du bureau car iA ne peut pas etre, en meme temps, le representant de l'Administration faisant respecter les engagements, le secr6taire- comptable de I'AUEA et son conseiller agricole; (vii) revoir la gestion des brigades mecanisees A la lumiere des recommandations de 1&tude qui devrait &re lancee des que possible; (viii) dissocier le suivi des AUEA qui doit etre exhaustif de la collecte des donnees necessaires A 1'evaluation de l'impact economique qui peut ne concemer qu'un echantillon de perimetres; 35 (ix) confier a la DPAE, ou A un bureau d'etudes si la DPAE n'en pas le temps, les etudes d'impact economiques qui devraient concemer un echantilion representatif de perimetres. VII. SUITE A DONNER 38. De retour A Rome, la mission elaborera une version provisoire du rapport d'achevement qui pourrait etre envoyee a la Banque mondiale et A la DAHA A la fin du mois de mars 1997. Afin de respecter les delais fixes, la DAHA est invitee a envoyer ses commentaires A la Banque mondiale, avant la mi-avril si possible. Ces commentaires constitueront le chapitre m dudit rapport d'achevement. 36 AIDE-MEMOIRE - ANNEXE A: COUTS DU PROJET Tableau 1: COUTS REELS DU PROJET ('000 DH) 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 TOTAL L INVESTLSSEMENTS A. REHABLITATIONDES PERIMETRES 14289.9 11473.0 7877.0 20267.2 44753.3 75031.0 36739.0 210430.4 B. EQUIPEMENTS ETFOURNITURES 138.5 325.6 25.0 280.0 773.7 568.4 505.5 46.1 2662.8 C. BRIGADES MECANISEES 9831.2 15469.2 2837.7 818.7 52.0 29008.8 D. VEHICULES 2941.2 2752.5 1689.8 7383.5 E. ASSISTANCE TECH., ETUDES, FORMATION 1. Assistance technique 50.3 83.2 199.0 828.0 1793.8 1581.7 4536.0 2. Etudes 2173.9 3980.4 9214.7 7771.2 16693.9 8127.6 47961.7 3. Fonnation 191.1 64.5 493.6 749.2 Sous-Total E 0.0 2224.2 4063.6 9604.8 8663.7 18981.3 9709.3 53246.9 TOTALLNVESTISSEMENTS 138.5 14615.5 23553.4 30631.0 36235.9 56493.9 94569.8 46494.4 302732.4 IL COUTS RECURRENTS A BRIGADES MECANISEES 5760.0 4844.0 3695.0 3295.0 3370.0 20964.0 B. VEIHICULES 206.6 578.5 777.0 610.0 1733.9 704.0 920.9 212.5 5743.4 TOTAL COUTS RECURRENTS 206.6 578.5 777.0 6370.0 6577.9 4399.0 4215.9 3582.5 26707.4 TOTAL COUTDU PROJET 345.1 15194.0 24330.4 37001.0 42813.8 692. 985.7 50076.9 329439.8 COOT DU PROJET (selon l'Evaluation) ('000 DH) 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 TOTAL L INVESTISSEMENTS A. REHABILITATION DES PERIMETRES 12068.2 32785 3 95919.4 95414.6 61250.7 297438.2 B. EQUIPEMENTS ET FOURNlIIRES 334.6 803.2 1137.8 C. BRIGADES MECANISEES 14693.0 8299.6 22992 6 D. VEHICULES 1478.7 2010.4 3489 1 E. ASSISTANCE TECH. ETUDES, FORMATION 1. Assistance technique 201.4 204.2 209.5 217.5 225.7 1058.3 2. Etudes 2103.8 3317.1 3144.8 743.8 169.3 9478.8 3. Fonnation 120.6 127.2 269.8 517.6 Sous-Total E 2305.2 3641.9 3481.5 1231.1 395.0 11054.7 TOTAL1NVESTISSEMENTS 30879.7 47540.4 99400.9 96645.7 61645.7 336112.4 IL COUTS RECURRENTS A BRIGADES MECANISEES 643.0 2032.0 4441.3 5685.0 5994.1 18795.4 B. VEHICULES 166.8 556.1 1359.7 1443.9 1533.9 5060.4 TOTAL COUTS RECURRENTS 809.8 2588.1 5801.0 7128.9 7528.0 23855.8 TOTAL COUTDUPROJET 31689.5 50128.5 105201.9 103774.6 69173.7 359968.2 37 AIDE-MEMOIRE - ANNEXE A: COUTS DU PROJET Tableau 2: LES PRINCIPAUX TRAVAUX DE REHABILITATION A. PERIMETRES A IRRIGATION PERMANENTE ET SAISONNIERE (Type Boukhatfa) Superfficle >100 ha Num. Nom Superlicle (ha) Ouvrage da prise RevAtement Captageg au Am6nagement Observations program. 6qulpee (Nombre) sigula (ml) souterralna piste (km) Al1. Guigou 3000 3000 2 16100 12 A1.2 Amimiz 3250 3250 2 28800 10.4 A2.2 Mouzrou 2100 2100 1 20000 A2.4 Zobzit 350 130 1 4000 Ouvrage de prise avancd & 37% A2.5 Tamguert 546 546 1 7850 A3.2 KitanYarghit 166 160 1 11800 A3.4 Mestigmeur 28. 284 18400 A3.5 0. Boukhalfa 258 258 2 2660 A3.6 A.H. Fanata 2695 1890 1 16200 Ouvrage de prise avancA a 74% A4.1 Talghoumt 770 770 1 13840 A4.2 Taguitount 222 222 3500 A4.3 Bouhlou 1160 770 2 12920 Ouvrages de pnse avanrds a 57% A4.4 Tizgui 257 150 2900 3 sources Captage sources avancd a 80% A4.7 Amimiz2 1200 1200 13200 TOTAL 16258 14730 14 172170 22.4 B. PERIMETRES A IRRIGATION PERMANENTE ET SAISONNIERE (Type Outat) Superficie >100 ha Num. Nom Superficie (ha) Ouvrag. de prise RevAtement Captage au | Amnagernnt Observations program. quip4e (Nombre) s6gula (ml) souterrainau pist. (km) A2 1 Z, Echeikh 1632 1600 35000 A2.9 Targa Wassay 138 138 2250 A3.1 Outat 2310 2310 11 65000 A3.3 Gafait 330 330 5200 TOTAL 4410 4378 11 107450 C. PERIMETRES A IRRIGATION PERMANENTE ET SAISONNIERE (Type Tazarine) Superficie >100 ha Numr. Nom Superficle (ha) Ouvrage de prise RevAtement Captage *au Am6nagement Observations program. Iquipee (Nombre) s6gula (ml) soutorralne piste (kem) A2.6 TizguiNtarga 1152 1152 21050 kheffaras A2.7 Tazarine 810 550 1 13300 A4.6 Palm. Akka 950 870 20000 TOTAL 2912 2572 1 54350 TOTAL GENERAL 23580 21680 26 333970 22.4 38 AIDE-MEMOIRE - ANNEXE A: COUTS DU PROJET Tableau 3: REPARTITION DES COUTS D'INVESTISSEMENT PAR TYPE DE PERIMETRE A. PERIMETRES A IRRIGATION PERMANENTE ET SAISONNIERE (Type Boukhalfa) Superficle >100 ha 000 dh NumL |Nom |Superficie (ha) | | 19891 19901 19911 19921 19931 *9941 19965 19961 TOTAL l ~~~~program. |eiquipee A1.1 Gulgou 3000 3000 INVEST. 0 941 2296 4579 4710 3907 73 348 16854 A1.2 Amimiz 3250 3250 INVEST. 0 3589 0 555 4558 2761 2260 0 13723 A2.2 Mouzrou 2100 2100 INVEST. 0 0 600 450 1083 13224 9141 617 25115 A2.4 Zobzit 350 130 INVEST. 0 0 112 328 152 369 0 582 1543 A2.5 Tamguort 546 546 INVEST. 0 0 0 107 632 1156 2693 397 4985 A3.2 Ktan Yarghit 166 160 INVEST. 0 0 0 343 296 432 2295 320 3686 A3A Mestlgmeur 284 284 INVEST. 1989 1990 1991 2177 2517 4499 3357 2252 20772 A3.5 0.Boukhalfa 258 258 INVEST. 0 0 0 455 305 3426 1026 0 5212 A3.6 A.H.Fariata 2695 1890 INVEST. 0 0 0 123 400 588 7825 7460 16394 A4.1 Talghoumt 770 770 INVEST. 0 0 0 39 528 252 932 4006 5757 A4.2 Tagultount 222 222 INVEST. 0 0 0 27 436 257 1754 2217 4691 A4.3 Bouhlou 1160 770 INVEST. 0 0 0 126 183 1070 2875 2912 7168 A4.4 Tizgui 257 150 INVEST. 0 0 0 17 256 111 413 849 1646 A4.7 Am,miz2 1200 1200 INVEST. 0 0 0 0 0 177 6704 3346 10227 TOTAL 14730 INVEST. 1989 6520 4999 9326 16056 32227 41348 25306 13M1 B. PERIMETRES A IRRIGATION PERMANENTE ET SAISONNIERE (Type Outat) Superficie >100 ha 000 dh Num. Nom Superficie (ha) 1989 19901 1991 1992 1993 19941 199 199 TOTAL I lprogram. jequipee I A2.1 Z. Echeikh 1632 1600 INVEST. 0 0 395 91 853 4630 3825 1135 10929 A2.9 TargaWassay 138 138 INVEST. 0 0 0 126 413 700 2414 250 3903 A3.1 Outat 2310 2310 INVEST. 0 0 774 180 353 3351 20492 4157 29307 A3.3 Gafait 330 330 INVEST. 0 0 0 371 444 3081 1945 0 5841 TOTAL 4378 0 0 1169 768 2063 11762 28676 6642 49980 C. PERIMETRES A IRRIGATION PERMANENTE ET SAISONNIERE (Type Tazarine) Superricie >100 ha 000 dh Num. Nom Superficie (ha) 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1 996 TOTAL program. lIquipee I A2.6 TizgulNtarga 1152 1152 INVEST. 0 0 0 167 972 1772 11379 1823 16113 A2.7 Tazarine 810 550 INVEST. 0 0 145 109 262 1572 7313 4965 14366 A4.6 Palm. Akka 950 870 INVEST. 0 0 0 0 350 97 1222 4209 5878 TOTAL 2672 0 0 145 276 1684 3441 19914 10997 36357 39 AIDE-MEMOIRE - ANNEXE A: COUTS DU PROJET (Suite) D.PETITS PERIMETRES A IRRIGATION PERMANENTE ET SAISONNIERE (Type Draa) Superficis <100 ha 000 dh Num. Nom ISuperficie (ha) 199 19901 1991 | 19921 19931 194 199|5 19961 TOTAL I |program. 1equipee B1.4 Agd.Lahna 50 50 INVEST. 0 0 545 303 21 21 0 0 890 B2.10 Bin Ewidan 30 30 INVEST. 0 0 237 35 0 0 0 0 272 B2.11 Tissar 40 40 INVEST. 0 0 314 35 0 0 0 0 349 B2.12 Tazrout 50 50 INVEST. 0 0 411 53 33 0 0 0 497 B2.13 Tagadirt 80 80 INVEST. 0 0 202 436 108 0 0 0 746 B2.14 Gendir 40 40 INVEST. 0 0 180 20 0 0 0 0 200 B2.15 Draa 95 95 INVEST. 0 0 729 320 0 0 0 0 1049 B2.16 A. Sefrou 100 100 INVEST. 0 0 416 541 0 95 0 0 1052 B2.17 A. Jouala 45 45 INVEST. 0 0 150 210 0 0 0 0 360 B2.18 Ijarmouas 30 30 INVEST. 0 0 180 60 0 0 0 0 240 B2.19 A. Hajbat 50 50 INVEST. 0 0 0 125 80 182 12 0 399 B3.9 Talahyant 100 75 INVEST. 0 0 0 0 0 90 0 0 90 B3.10 Tarseft 100 75 INVEST. 0 0 0 0 0 318 0 0 318 B3.11 A. Hassan 95 70 INVEST. 0 0 0 0 0 46 142 45 233 TOTAL 830 0 0 3364 2138 242 762 154 45 6696 E.PETITS PERIMETRES A EPANDAGE DE CRUES Supericie >1OO ha 000 dh Num. Nom ISuperficie (ha) 1989 990 1 19921 19931 1994 19961 19961 TOTAL I | |program. |equipee | 9 A1.3 A. Messoud 1500 1500 INVEST. 0 9760 5813 605 9931 1057 544 0 27710 A2.8 Botm.Jema 460 230 INVEST. 0 0 178 151 1334 4854 1251 453 8221 A3.7 Touroug 1000 800 INVEST. 0 0 0 378 415 588 2404 1831 5616 A3.8 Taghicht 625 110 INVEST. 0 0 20 290 49 665 1223 4271 6518 TOTAL 2640 0 9760 6011 1424 11729 7164 5422 6555 48065 40 AIDEMEMOIRE - ANNEXE A Tableau 4: RECAPITULATIF COUTS DU PROJET A. PERIMETRES A IRRIGATION PERMANENTE ET SAISONNIERE (Type Boukhalfa) Superficie totale equipee, fin 1996: 14 730 ha 000 dh 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002-06 2007-11 2012-20 Investissement total 6520 4999 9326 16056 32227 41348 25306 CoOt entretien avant-projet 7070 7070 7070 7070 7070 7070 7070 CoOt entretien aprns-projet 976 976 976 976 976 1464 1952 2440 B. PERIMETRES A IRRIGATION PERMANENTE ET SAISONNIERE (Type Outat) Superficie totale equipee, fin 1996: 4 378 ha OOOdh 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002-062007-11 2012-20 Investissement total 0 1169 768 2063 11762 28676 5542 CoOt entretien avant-projet 2100 2100 2100 2100 2100 2100 2100 CoOt entretien aprLs-projet 400 400 400 400 400 600 800 1000 C. PERIMETRES A IRRIGATION PERMANENTE ET SAISONNIERE (Type Tazarine) Superficie totale equipee, fin 1996: 2 572 ha oao dh 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 4996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002-06 2007-11 2012-20 lnvestissementtotal 0 145 276 1584 3441 19914 10997 CoOt entretien avant-projet 1235 1235 1235 1235 1235 1235 1235 CoOt entretien apres-projet 290 290 290 290 290 435 580 727 D.PETITS PERIMETRES A IRRIGATION PERMANENTE ET SAISONNIERE (Type Draa) Superficie totale equip6e, fin 1996: 830 ha 000 dh 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002-06 2007-112012-20 Investissement total 0 3364 2138 242 752 154 45 CoOt entretien avant-projet 265 265 265 265 265 265 265 CoOt entretien apres-projet 54 54 54 54 54 80 120 134 41 AIDE-MEMOIRE ANNEXE B Analyse economique 1. La PMH 2 est intervenue dans 39 perimetres dissemines dans 17 provinces et dans le cadre de la pr6paration de ce rapport d'achevement, cinq perimetres ont ete selectionnes comme representatifs de la majorite des autres perimetres. II aurait, en effet, pris beaucoup de temps de collecter les donnees dans chacun des 39 perimetres et d'aller en verifier la coh6rence. La Cellule de coordination et de suivi du projet a donc choisi cinq perimrtres et y a fait collecter des donn6es necessaires A 1'estimation de la rentabilite 6conomique des investissements r6alis6s, donnees qui ont et6 completees lors de discussions avec les techniciens de ces regions. Ces p6rimetres sont brievement presente ci-dessous, la liste exhaustive etant donnee au Tableau 4 de l'Appendice B: * Ouled Boukhalfa dans la province de Boulemane d'une superficie equip6e de 260 ha qui represente 14 p6rimetres A irrigation permanente et saisonniere de plus de 100 ha; * Outat dans la province de Khenifra, d'une superficie equipee de 2 310 ha, qui represente 4 perimbtres A irrigation permanente et saisonniere de plus de 100 ha; * Tazarine et Tizgui N'targa dans la province de Ouarzazate de superficies equip6es respectives de 810 ha et 1 150 ha qui repr6sentent 3 perimetres a irrigation permanente et saisonniere de plus de 100 ha; * Draa dans la province d'Azilal, d'une superficie equipee de 95 ha, qui repr6sente les 14 perimetres de moins de 100 ha a irrigation permanente et saisonniere. 2. Cette selection m6rite deux commentaires. Le premier a trait A I'absence de p6rim6tre d'epandage de crues. La duree de la mission n'a pas permis de trouver le temps necessaire a cette visite; une solution aurait ete de reduire le nombre de p6rimrtres A irrigation perenne et saisonniere ce qui n'a pas ete retenu car un temps suffisant a voulu etre reserve A ce type d'irrigation dont l'avenir est actuellement nettement plus prometteur que celui de l'epandage de crues. Le second concerne les deux perimetres, Tazarine et Tizgui N'targa, qui ont ete retenus dans un groupe qui n'en compte que trois; les hasards du calendrier ont fait qu'une demi-journee a pu etre trouvee A Ouarzazate pour visiter le second perimetre et qu'il aurait e dommage de ne pas utiliser les donnees collectees. 3. Cet appendice presente les donnees de base qui ont permis d'estimer la rentabilit6 6conomique du projet. Seront successivement passes en revue, les donnees relatives aux b6n6fices: superficies cultivees, donnees technico-economiques pour les principales speculations, prix 6conomiques et facteurs de conversion, celles concemant les couts et finalement les taux de rentabilitW economique. 42 BWnefices economiques 4. Afin d'estimer les benefices economiques du projet, il a, dans un premier temps, ete evalue le b6n6fice par ha dans chacun des 5 perimetres. Ce ben6fice a ensuite 6te extrapole au niveau de la superficie totale de tous les p6rimetres representes par ces perimetres. L'estimation du benefice par ha pour chacun des cinq perimrtres a suivi la m8me s6quence de calcul: * presentation de I'evolution des superficies cultiv6es dans la situation "avant le projet"' la situation actuelle et la situation "en periode de croisiere" (Tableau 1 a 5); les donnees de la situation avant le projet proviennent de l'6tude de factibilite, celles de la situation actuelle ont 6te foumies par les techniciens locaux et celles de la situation en periode de croisiere sont des estimations faites par la mission sur la base des discussions avec les techniciens et avec les agriculteurs; du fait de l'imprecision relative des donn6es, il n'a et retenu que les cultures les plus importantes pour chacun des p6rimrtres; c'est ainsi par exemple que les 1lgumineuses qui a Ouled Boukhalfa ne couvraient que 9 ha sur un total de 280 ha, n'ont pas et retenues dans l'assolement, cette superficie ayant ete integree A celle des cereales; . pour chacune des speculations representatives du perimrtre, les donnees technico- 6conomiques des situations "avant le projet" et '"priode de croisiere" ont ete preparees sur la base des donn6es fournies par les techniciens des CT, des CMV, des DPA et de l'ORMVA; les Tableaux 6 a 15 presentent les fiches relatives au ble, mais en derobe, feves, luzeme, pomme de terre,olivier, pommier, amandier, palmier dattier et henne; pour chacune d'elles, le produit brut et les couits de production sont presentes en quantites et en valeur; * les prix economiques (Tableau 16) utilises dans ces fiches technico-economiques sont tous des prix premier trimestre 1997; ils ont ete soit repris du rapport de pr6-evaluation du Projet d'amenagement de bassins versants, soit collectes localement; certains prix comme ceux des pomme de terre, des pommes et des dattes ont 6te revus a la baisse; pour les intrants et les travaux mecaniques le facteur de conversion a 6te pris egal A 1; pour la main d'oeuvre agicole, le facteur de conversion a et pris egal a 0,8; * le Tableau 17 resume les benefices nets economiques par ha "avant le projet" et en "annee de croisiere" pour les cultures s6lectionn6es. 5. Les b6n6fices economiques pour chacun des types de p6rimetres sont obtenus comme suit: * en combinant les superficies des Tableaux 1 A 5 et les benefices par ha resumes au Tableau 17, on obtient les benefices economiques des situations "avant le proj et" et "annee de croisiere" pour chacun des cinq perimetres choisis; la periode de croisiere est prevue commencer 4 ans apres la fin des travaux, ce qui est le double de l'estimation faite au cours de l'evaluation (deux ans apres la fin des travaux); 1'evolution du benefices net economique au cours des 4 premieres ann6es (Tableau 18) pour chacun des quatre types de perimetres, a ete arbitrairement fixe a 20 %, 20 %, 30 % et 30 % de la diffirence entre le ben6fice "avant le projet" et "ann6e de croisiere" respectivement 43 les annees 1, 2, 3 et 4; comme precise ant6rieurement, les p6rimetres de Tazarine et de Tizgui N'Targa representent un seul type de perimetre; les donnees relatives aux ben6fices economiques annuels par perimetre ont ensuite ete multipliees par les superficies rehabilitees annee par annee (Tableau 19) ce qui a permis d'obtenir, pour chacun des quatre types de p6rimetres, les ben6fices economiques additionnels resultant du projet (Tableaux 23 a 28). Couits economiques 6. Tous les coats ont etd transformes en DH 1997 afin de pouvoir les comparer aux benefices qui ont ete estimes en prix 1997. Les taux d'actualisation utilises sont presentes au Tableau 20. Cette actualisation a ete faite sur la base des taux de l'inflation locale pour la totalite des cofits (monnaie locale et devises 6trangeres) sur la base de l'hypothese que le differentiel d'inflation entre le Maroc et les pays exportateurs de biens et services est compense par les variations du taux de change DH- devises etrangeres. 7. Les couts exprimes en DH 1997 ont ensuite ete ajust6s par le facteur de conversion standard (Tableau 16). Les couits economiques d'investissement et de fonctionnment presentes au Tableau 21 ne diffbrent que de peu avec les couts du projet en DH courants (Appendice B, Tableau 1). Ceci resulte du fait que les augmentations provenant de l'actualisation sont partiellement annul6es par I'ajustement du facteur de conversion standard. 8. Comme precise au niveau des fiches technico-economiques, le coat de l'eau a ete presente globalement pour chacun des perimetres (Tableau 22). L'estimation du cofit de l'eau a ete abordee par le biais des couts d'entretien des perimetres. En effet, dans les perimetres traditionnels, les usagers ne paient pas l'eau; par contre, ils financent l'entretien et les reparations du perimetre, soit en travaillant eux-memes, soit en foumissant de la main-d'oeuvre salari6e. Pour les perimetres rehabilites, l'estimation des coats d'entretien a ete faite sur la base de 2 % par an des couits de rehabilitation. Malgre un taux pris volontairement assez elev6, les usagers font des economies d'entretien assez importantes. Les economies varient par perimetres, de 140 DH par ha et par an au Draa a 310 DH a Ouled Boukhalfa. Taux de rentabilite economique 9. L'estimation de la rentabilite a ete faite pour chacun des quatre types de pdrimetres rehabilites, pour l'ensemble des p6rimetres d'irrigation permanente et saisonniere et pour le projet en entier: * pour les quatre types de perimetres rehabilit6s, les couts pris en consideration sont les couts directs d'investissement et les economies en matiere d'entretien des perimetres. Les couts gen6raux de fonctionnement du projet n'ont donc pas ete affect6s aux sous- projets; * pour l'ensemble des perimetres d'irrigation permanente et saisonniere, tous les coats du projet ont ete pris en consideration a 1'exception des cofits de rehabilitation des 44 perimetres d'epandage de crues et d'achat et de fonctiaoinement des brigades m6canis6es; * pour le projet en entier, tous les couits ont 6t6 pris en consid6ration alors qu'aucun benefice relatif aux composantes d'epandage de crues n'a 6t6 comptabilise. 10. Les tableaux suivants resument les taux de rentabilite estim6s par le rapport d'achevement et ceux qui avaient ete calcules par la mission d'evaluation. Rapport Taux de | Switchingvalues' d'achevement rentabilite Diminution des Augmentation des benefices coots ............................................ ....% ........................... Perinmtres du type Oui'^d Boukhalfa 24 70 232 Perimetres du type Outat 20 57 134 Perimetres du type Tazarine 24 65 189 Pnrimtres du type Draa 32 77 336 Ensemble des perimetres d'irrigation 23 66 191 perenne et saisonniWre3 Total du projet3 15 41 68 Rapport Taux de Switching values d'evaluation rentabilite Diminution des bnefices I Augmentation des coftts .................... .............................. .% .......................... Amizmiz 24 33 50 Guigou 22 26 34 Alt Messaoud 12 6 5 Agadir Lahnia 46 70 237 Total du projet 20 24 31 Les taux estimes pour le rapport d'achevement se comparent tres favorablement avec les taux calcules par la mission d'evaluation du projet. Au niveau des quatre types de p6rimetres, les taux de rentabilite varient de 20 a 32 % alors que pour l'irrigation perenne et saisonniere l'evaluation avait obtenu des taux de 22 a 46 %. Les 'twitching values" montrent cependant une plus grande sensibilit6 aux diminutions de b6n6fices et aux augmentations de couits que dans le cas du rapport d'achevement. II faut noter, cependant, que le cout d'opportunite du capital n'est pas indique dans le SAR et que donc la ' A un cout d'opportunite du capital de 10 %. 2 Non inclus les benefices et les cofits relatifs aux epandages de crues. 3 Hors benefices relatifs aux epandages de crues mais y inclus les cofits de cette composante. 45 comparaison n'est pas entierement valable. Le taux pour la totalite du projet est de 20 % pour le SAR; il varie entre 15 et 23 % pour le rapport d'achevement. Le taux de 15 % peut, en effet, tre consid&r6 comme une limite minimum puisque l'ensemble des couits a 6te pris en consideration et qu'aucun benefice n'a ete estime pour la composante d'epandage de crues. D'autre part, 23 % est un maximum puisque les couts et ben6fices de l'epandage de crues, composante la moins rentable du projet, ne sont pas pris en consideration. 46 AIDE-MEMOIRE - ANNEXE B ANALYSE ECONOMIQUE Tableau 1. Perimetre d'Ouled Boukhalfal - Superficies cultivees Cultures Situation Situation Situation "Avant le projet"2 actuelle3 I "Periode de croisiere"4 .......................................................... ha ...................................... Cerdales5 110 110 110 Ldgumineuses6 10 10 15 Fourrage7 20 25 40 Maralchage8 10 10 20 Arboriculture9 125 130 175 Total 275 285 360 Intensitd culturale 106 110 138 Source: Donnees de la CCSP, de la DPA et estimations de la mission. 1 Infrastructures achevdes en 1995; superficie irrigable: 260 ha. 2 Donndes de l'etude de factibilitd. 3 Saison culturale 1996-1997. 4 Prevue 4 ans apres la fin des travaux. 5 Bld principalement. 6 Feves principalement. 7 Luzerne principalement. 8 Pomme de terre et carottes/navets. 9 Olivier principalement. 47 AIDE-MEMOIRE - ANNEXE B ANALYSE ECONOMIQUE Tableau 2. Primetre d'Outat' - Superficies cultivees Cultures Situation Situation Situation ' "Avant le projet"2 I actuelle3 I "P6riode de croisire"4 ......................................................... ..........................ha Cereales5 810 1 420 1 200 Fourrage6 290 330 360 Maralchage7 60 80 150 ArboricultureS 450 480 600 Jachere 700 Total 2 310 2 310 2 310 Intensite culturale 70 100 100 Source: Donnces de la CCSP, de la DPA et estimations de la mission. 1 Infrastructures achevees en 1995; superficie irrigable: 2 310 ha. 2 Donnees de l'etude de factibilite. 3 Saison culturale 1996-1997. 4 Prevue 4 ans apres la fin des travaux. 5 B1 principalement. 6 Luzerne principalement. 7 Pomme de terre et carottes/navets. 8 Pommier principalement. 48 AIDE-MEMOIRE - ANNEXE B ANALYSE ECONOMIQUE Tableau 3. Perimetre du Draal - Superficies cultiv6es Cultures Situation Situation Situation "Avant le projet"2 I actuelle3 | P&riode de croisiere"4 ......................................................... .......................... h a . Cdrdales5 5 LUgumineuses6 20 35 40 Fourrage7 25 30 30 Maraichage8 10 20 25 Arboriculture9 95 95 95 Total 155 180 190 Intensite culturale 163 189 200 Source: Donnees de la CCSP, de la DPA et estimations de la mission. ' Infrastructures achevdes en 1993; superficie irrigable: 95 ha. 2 Donnees de I'etude de factibilitd. 3 Saison culturale 1996-1997. 4 Prdvue 4 ans apres la fin des travaux. 5 Mais principalement. 6 Feves principalement. 7 Luzerne principalement. s Pomme de terre et carottes/navets principalement. 9 Olivier principalement. 49 AIDE-MEMOIRE - ANNEXE B ANALYSE ECONOMIQUE Tableau 4. Perimetre de Tizgui N'Targal - Superficies cultivees Cultures Situation Situation Situation "Avant le projet'2 actuelle3 Periode de croisi6re"4 ......................................................... .......................... h a . Cerealess 600 600 650 Mais (en derobd) 400 400 350 Fourrage6 80 90 100 Maraichage' 50 60 100 Arboriculture8 610 620 660 Total 1 740 1 770 1 860 Intensitd culturale 151 154 162 Source: Donnecs de la CCSP, de l'ORMVA et estimations de la mission. ' Infrastructures achevees en 1996; superficie irrigable: 1 150 ha. 2 Donnees de l'dtude de factibilit. 3 Saison culturale 1996-1997. ' Prevue 4 ans apres la fin des travaux. 5 Ble et orge. 6 Luzerne principalement. 7 Pomme de terre principalement. 8 Amandier principalement. 50 AIDE-MEMOIRE - ANNEXE B ANALYSE ECONOMIQUE Tableau 5. Pcrimitrc Tazarinc' - Superficics cultivees Cultures Situation Situation Situation 'Avant lc projet"2 I actuelle3 "Periodc de croisiere " ......................................................... ......................... h a . Cereales5 405 425 450 Mais (en d&robc) 70 70 50 LUgumincuscs6 35 40 50 Fourrage7 110 120 150 Maraichagc8 30 35 50 Arboriculture9 67() 670 700 Hennd 0 0 50 Total 1 320 1 360 1 500 Intensitc culturalc 163 168 185 Source: Donn6cs dc la CCSP, dc l'ORMVA et estimations de la mission. 1 Infrastructurcs achcv6ecs cn 1996; supcrficic irrigable: 810 ha. 2 Donnees dc l'ctudc dc factibilit. 3 Saison culturalc 1996-1997. 4 Prevue 4 ans aprcs la fin dcs travaux, 5 Bid principalcment. 6 Feves principalcnicnt. 7 Luzerne principalcmcnt. h Pomme de terre principalement. 9 Palmier datticr principalement. 51 AIDE-MEMOIRE - ANNEXE B ANALYSE ECONOMIQUE Tableau 6. Liste des prix economiques et des facteurs de conversion Prix economiaucs des cultures selectionnees DH par Qx Cereales 170 Paille 30 Mais 150 Feves 300 Vegetation de Idgumineuses 60 Luzerne 20 Pomme de terre 150 Olives 275 Pommes 150 Amandes 2,000 3atte 500 Henne 2,000 Facteur de conversion pour les couts de production Facteur de conversion Intranis 1,0 Travaux du sol 1,0 Battagc 1,0 Main-d'ocuvre agricole 0,8 Facteur de conversion standard Couts d'investissement 0,9 Couits d'operation 0,9 Source: MAROC - Rapport de pre-evaluation du Projet d'am6nagement de bassins versants Annexe II: Analyse economique et estimations de la mission. 52 AIDE-MEMOIRS - ANNEXE B ANALYSE ECONOMIQUE Tableau 7. Benefices nets economiques "avant le projet" et en "ann6e de croisi&re" par ha pour les cultures s6lectionn6es Avant le projet I Ann&e de croisier ........................................ DH par ha . CUraUes 1 030 1 390 Mais en derobe 730 1 030 Ldgumineuses 1 260 3 120 Fourrage 2 420 4 140 Maraichage 6 700 8 700 Olivier 4 450 6 205 Pommier 11 960 18 320 Amandier 8 120 11 600 Palmier dattier 16 720 23 900 Henne - 15 260 Source: Donn&es technico-economiques relatives aux principales cultures sur perimetres PM (FAO/CP Fivrier 1997) 53 AIDE-MEMOIRE - ANNEXE B ANALYSE ECONOMIQUE Tableau 8. Evolution du benefice net 6conomique par ha pour les quatre types de perimatres silectionnis' Types de p6rim6tres Situation Ann6W I "Avant projet"| 1 r 2 I 3 I 4-30 Type Ouled Boukhalfa 3 070 3 706 4 342 5 296 6 250 Type Outat 3 210 3 906 4 602 5 646 6 690 Type Tazarine etTizgui N'Targa 9480 10602 11 724 13 407 15 090 TypeDraA 6 110 7 112 8 114 9617 11 120 Source: Tableau% 1 a 5 et 7. Tableau 9. Evolution des superficies rehabilit&es pour les quatre types de p$rimitres silectionnis 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 Type Ouled Boukhalfa Additionnels - - - - 6 250 2 802 5 678 CumulIs 6 250 9 052 14 730 Type Outat Additionnels - - - - - 2 068 2 310 Cumules - - - - - 2 068 4 378 Type Tazarine Additionnels - - - - - - 2 572 Cumules - - - - - - 2 572 Type DraS Additionnels 50 110 400 50 75 - 145 CUmUl16 so 160 560 610 685 685 830 Source: CCSP. Les accroissements annuels ont ete arbitrairement fixes A 20 °/o, 20 %, 30 % et 30 % de la difference entre la situation en periode de croisi&re et la situation avant le projet. 2 Le projet demarre I'annee qui suit la fin des travaux. 54 AIDE-MEMOIRE - ANNEXE B ANALYSE ECONOMIQUE Tableau 10. Actualisation des coOts du projet' Taux annuels Taux Annees d'inflation locale cumules (%) (%) 1989 3,9 41,2 1990 5,7 36,7 1991 6,5 29,3 1992 4,9 21,4 1993 3,6 15,7 1994 0,2 11,7 1995 7,2 11,5 1996 4,0 4,0 Actualisation calcule sur la base de l'inflation locale pour la totalite du cofit (en monnaie locale et en devises etrangeres) sur la base de I'hypothese que le differentiel d'inflation (international et local) est compense par les variations du taux de change du DH. 55 AIDE-MEMOIRE - ANNEXE B ANALYSE ECONOMIQUE Tableau 11. Couts tconomiques d'investissement et de fonctionnement (en 000 DH constant 1997)1 1989 1 1990 1991 1 1992 1 1993 1994 1995 1996 Total Couts d'investissement Wrim6tres du type Ouled - 5 574 3 500 8 013 14 644 30 393 39 491 21 818 123 433 Boukhalfa2 Nrimdtres du type Outat2 - - 1 361 839 2 148 11 824 28 777 5 188 50 137 Nrimetres du type - - 168 302 1 650 3 460 19 984 10 293 35 857 Tazarmine P&rim6tres du type DraA2 - - 3 915 2 336 252 756 155 42 7 456 Nrimetres a epandage de - 12 008 6 99S 1 556 12 213 7 202 5 441 6 135 51 550 crues2 Equipements et foumitures 176 401 29 306 806 572 508 43 2 841 VWhicules - - - 3 214 2 866 1 699 - - 7 779 Formation - - - - 199 65 495 - 759 Brigades m6canis&es - - 11 441 16 902 2 955 823 52 - 32 173 Total 176 17 983 27 409 33 468 37 733 56 794 94 903 43 519 311985 "Investissements" Co&ts de fonctionnement Brigades m6canis&es - - - 6 293 5 044 3 715 3 307 3 154 21 513 Whicules 263 712 904 666 1 806 708 924 199 6 182 Total 263 712 904 6 959 6 850 4 423 4 231 3 353 27 695 "Fonctionnement" Cout total du projet 439 18 695 28 313 40 427 44 583 61217 99 134 46 872 339 680 Les donnees des Tableaux 1 et 4 de I'Annexe B ont ete actualis&es au moyen des taux du Tableau 10 et corriges par le facteur de conversion standard. 2 y inclus les coOts d'etudes et de controle des travaux. 56 AIDE-MEMOIRE - ANNEXE B ANALYSE ECONOMIQUE Tableau 12. Economies d'entretien des perimetres r6habilit6s T 1990 1 1991 1 1992 1 1993 1 1994 1 1995 1996 1997 1998-2018 Perimetres du type Ouled - - - - - 1 938 2 806 4 566 4 566 Boukhalfa' Perimetres du type Outat' - - - - - - 517 1 095 1 095 Perimetres du type Tazarine' - - - - - - - 514 514 Perimetres du type Dra52 - 7 22 78 85 96 96 116 116 Source: Tableau 9 et note de bas de page. Avant le projet. 12 jours de travail par ha soit 480 DH/ha et par an; avec le projet, 2 % du cofit economique de rehabilitation soil 170 DH/ha pour Ouled Boukhalfa, 230 DR/ha pour Outat et 280 DR/ha pour Tazarine, soit une economie avcc le projet de 310 DH/ha pour Ouled Boukhalfa, 250 DH/ha pour Outat et 200 DH/ha pour Tazarine. 2 Avant le projet, 8 jours de travail par ha soit 320 DH/ha et par an; avec le projet, 2 % du couit economique de rehabilitation soit 180 DH/ha, soit une economie avec le projet de 140 DR/ha. 57 AIDE-MEMOIRE ANNEXE C Suivi-6valuation Introduction 1. Avant d'analyser les acquis et les faiblesses du suivi-6valuation du projet PMH 2, il est necessaire de preciser ce qui etait attendu d'un tel systeme. Dans un cadre general et dans le cadre de ce projet en particulier il faut distinguer le suivi de l'evaluation qui doivent repondre a des besoins distincts. Le suivi est un outil de gestion en cours d'execution du projet permettant de faire le point du niveau d'execution des programmes d'activites. L'evaluation doit permettre de juger si les effets et impacts attendus ont et obtenus; ses resultats, utiles pour arneliorer la mise en valeur des perimetres r6habilit6s, seront egalement utilises pour ameliorer la preparation de programmes ult6rieurs. 2. L'Annexe 9 du rapport d'evaluation fait bien la distinction entre: - les indicateurs de suivi, lies aux activit6s de rehabilitation et aux services d'appui fournis par la Cellule de coordination et de suivi du projet (CCSP) et ses partenaires; et - les criteres d'evaluation, 1ies a la mise en valeur des perimetres par les b6neficiaires du programme (production, revenus, rentabilite economique). 3. Le rapport d'evaluation precise que 'les principales activites de la cellule consisteront A:. (c) suivre l'execution du projet, 6tablir des rapports semestriels sur l'ex6cution des travaux; et (d) suivre l'avancement des travaux dans tous les p6rimetres de 1 000 ha et plus et dans un sondage de 20 % des perimetres de moins de 1 000 ha. Ce suivi portera sur toutes les phases de l'execution du projet et sur le developpement agro-economique ulterieur. nI englobera le suivi de la formation des Associations d'usagers. ... De maniere independante la Direction de la planification et des affaires economiques (DPAE) effectuera, A l'achevement du projet, une enquete par sondage sur les effets economiques et sociaux du projet." 4. Le suivi du programme de rehabilitation a ete r6alise de fagon satisfaisante et les rapports d'avancement periodiques ont donne une infonnation reguliere sur 1'execution physique des differentes phases. La collecte de donnees relative aux criteres d'evaluation a pose plus de problemes et merite une analyse plus detaill6e. Systemes d'information prevus 5. Pour le suivi du developpement agro-economique ainsi que le suivi de la formation et du fonctionnement des Associations d'usagers des eaux agricoles (AUEA), un systeme d'information a ete developpe en 1994 lors d'une mission de consultation. Celui-ci a 6t6 conqu comme un systeme de gestion et d'aide A la prise de decision pour les differents niveaux concemes par le programme (AUEA, CT ou CMV, DPA ou ORMVA, CCSP). I1 comporte des donnees sur les productions veg6tales et 58 animales et leur commercialisation, sur les ressources en eau et sur le suivi administratif et comptable des AUEA. Les informations relatives A la production, basees sur les d6clarations des producteurs devraient etre croisees avec une collecte de donnees effectu6e par la DPAE sur un echantillon d'exploitations. Cinq perimetres ont ete retenus pour une phase test Execution 6. Pour la mise en place de chacun de ces deux systemes, la CCSP en collaboration avec la DPAE a organise des ateliers sur le terrain afin d'mformer et de sensibiliser les principales personnes concemres par la mise en oeuvre de ces systemes. Dans les deux cas, des agents des centres de travaux ont ete responsabilises pour la collecte des informations. 7. Sur les cinq DPA concernees, deux ont collecte et transmis des donnees sur la base de l'ancien systeme pour les deux campagnes 6coulees (Boulemen, perimetre de Guigou et Taza, perimetre de Tazrout) et deux autres ont applique le systeme minimum pour la campagne 95/96 (Beni Mellal, perimetre de Zaouit Echeikh et Azilal, perimetre de Tamarguet). Seule la DPA de Marrakech n'a transmis aucune information. Sur la base des systemes d'information proposes, la CCSP dispose donc actuellement de donnees relatives A deux p6rimLTes pour la campagne 94/95 et A quatre perimetres pour la campagne 95/96. 8. Les donnees de la campagne 94/95 ont 6te saisies par la CCSP selon un format propose par la DPAE pour permettre un traitement sur un logiciel d'analyse statistique. Considerant le faible nombre de variables collectees et la taille des echantillons, cette option est certainement trop ambitieuse. Un tableur, plus facilement utilisable par un non statisticien, suffit amplement pour effectuer les analyses necessaires et presenter les resultats. 9. La collecte de donnees selon des procedures habituelles des services statistiques (releve topographique et carres de rendement) destinee A apprecier la fiabilite des informations collect6es via les declarations des producteurs n'a pas ete effectuee. Les moyens A mettre en oeuvre pour l'execution d'un tel travail seraient disproportionnes par rapport au faible nombre de donnees disponibles, actuellement et dans un futur proche. 10. Enfin, pour Ia preparation du rapport d'achevement du projet, il a ete demande aux services provmciaux de rassembler, entre autres, les informations relatives aux superficies emblav6es et aux rendements de la campagne 95/96 pour 7 des 39 perimetres rehabilites durant la deuxieme phase du projet. Des donnees de precision variable ont 6te foumies pour cinq p6rimetres. Constatant les difficultis d'application du dispositif propose, la mission BIRD/KfW de mars 1996 a recommande une simplification de ce systeme en reduisant a deux niveaux la structure du systeme d'information (AUJEA 4 CCSP) et en limitant l'information au minimum necessaire pour une dvaluation de l'impact sur la production et de la situation financiere des AUEA. Cinq perimetres (trois deja retenus par le premier systeme et deux nouveaux) ont ete retenus pour appliquer ce systeme. 59 Contraintes rencontrees Systemes d'information 11. Le systeme d'information pour le suivi de la mise en valeur des perimetres et celui destine au suivi des AUEA ont 6te libs dans les systemes propos6s. Cependant les niveaux d'utilisation, meme s'ils peuvent etre complementaires, ainsi que les contraintes d'application de ces deux systemes, sont differents: - le responsable du suivi des AUEA doit savoir ce que devient chacune de celles qui ont 6te form6es mais vu leur nombre croissant il ne peut les visiter toutes regulierement; il doit donc s'organiser pour disposer r6gulierement d'un minimum de donnees sur 1'ensemble des associations; en sa quafite de 7eme membre du bureau, le representant de I'administration doit disposer de cette information et peut la transmettre facilement; - la collecte des informations necessaires pour un suivi-evaluation de la mise en valeur demande un travail specifique relativement contraignant et de ce fait il ne peut etre envisage sur 1'ensemble des perimetres. A des fins d'evaluation la disponibilite de donnees sur un echantillon representatif de p6rimetres serait suffisante. Mlthodologie 12. Afin de tenir compte des contraintes liees a la collecte des donnees sur la production agricole (absence de moyens specifiques), la taille des echantillons proposes etait limitee a 30 exploitations par AUEA. Une rapide analyse des donnees disponibles montre que cet echantillon est insuffisant pour obtenir des informations extrapolables au niveau du perimetre. En effet, on constate une tres forte variation entre les superficies exploitees par agriculteur au seim d'un meme perimetre et, pour une speculation donnee, on enregistre rarement plus des deux tiers des exploitants qui la pratiquent. Moyens 13. Les systemes d'information reposent a la base sur les 7emes membres des AUEA mais ceux-ci, principalement agents des CT, ne disposent que de peu de moyens de fonctionnement; si le CT n'est pas situe A proximit6 immediate du perimetre, le manque de moyens de deplacements est mis en avant pour justifier la difficult6 de collecte. La DPA de Boulemane a pallie a cette contrainte par la mise a disposition du CT d'un vehicule. Organisation 14. L'absence d'analyse des donnees a la fin de la campagne 94/95, meme si elles ne concernaient que deux p6rimetres, n'a pas permis de tenter d'am6liorer l'approche methodologique proposee. 60 15. Les services provinciaux directement concemrs par la mise en valeur ont ete insuffisamment associes dans la conception du systeme et ne se sont pas sentis concernes par son utilisation. Les agents devant participer au systeme d'information dependent de differentes Directions du MAMVA au niveau central: les CT dependent de la DERD, les SPA dependent de la DPA et les destinataires finaux dependent de la DAHA. Les passerelles entre ces differentes Directions ont e insuffisantes pour mobiliser les ressources necessaires. Leqons pour le futur 16. Le suivi des associations et la collecte de donnees pour 1'evaluation de l'impact de la rehabilitation sur la mise en valeur agricole et les revenus des producteurs doivent 8tre dissocies. Si la collecte de donnees sur la mise en valeur peut 8tre effectu6e sur un 6chantillon repr6sentatif de perimetres, le systeme d'information pour le suivi des associations doit etre operationnel pour 1'ensemble d'entre elles afin que la cellule d'appui aux AUEA, devant 8tre cr66e au sein de l'AGR, puisse organiser convenablement son programme d'intervention. Les donnees necessaires pour ce suivi sont d'ailleurs facilement accessibles car elles ne reposent sur aucun 6chantillonnage, mesure ou estimation. En sa qualite de 7eme membre du bureau, le representant de I'administration devra assurer la disponibilite et la transmission des informations de base sur la vie inteme de I'association, sa situation financi&re, les principales activites menees notamment en matiere d'entretien du reseau. 17. La methodologie d'6chantillonnage pour la collecte de donnees sur la mise en valeur doit etre revue afin d'obtenir des informations exploitables. L'option de renouveler l'6chantillon chaque campagne doit 8tre supprimee. En maintenant le meme echantillon, 1'erreur de sondage sera maintenue au meme niveau d'une annee sur l'autre et les donn6es, meme si elles ne pourront toujours pas etre extrapolees a l'ensemble du perimetre, pourront 8tre comparees d'une annee sur l'autre. Les principales analyses possibles concemeront l'evolution de l'assolement des exploitations et I'6volution des rendements. Les donnees disponibles devront etre systematiquement analysees et ces analyses devront etre restituees vers les services provinciaux afin qu'ils jugent de l'inter8t d'am.liorer et de poursuivre leur collecte. 18. La DPAE a montr6 depuis le debut de la premiere phase du projet beaucoup de difficult6s a executer, avec ses ressources propres, les etudes necessaires a l'evaluation de l'impact. Vu l'inter8t Ibgitime porte par l'administration pour l'obtention d'informations concretes sur l'impact des programmes PMH sur la production agricole et le revenu des agriculteurs, un fonds d'etude specifique doit etre mobilise pour garantir leur disponibilit6. Ces etudes, r6alisees de fa,on ponctuelle sur un echantillon de perimetres rehabilites seraient coordonnees par la DPAE avec la collaboration du service suivi-evaluation et du service rehabilitation de l'AGR. La situation, au moins deux campagnes apres la rehabilitation, serait comparee a la situation 'avant projet"telle qu'etablie dans les etudes de factibilite notamment dans les chapitres consacres a l'6tude de la situation actuelle et a l'6tude agro-6conornique et developpement agricole. 61 KINGDOM OF MOROCCO SECOND SMALL AND MEDIUM SCALE IRRIGATION PROJECT APPENDIX B Borrower Contribution to the ICR '97 04/30 16:51 2 520 42 MAMUA DAHA 02 ROYAUME DU MAROC RAPPORT D'ACHEVEMENT SECOND PROJET DE DEVELOPPEMENT DE LA PETITE ET MOYENNE HYDRAUUQUE SECTION 11 CONTRIBUTION DE L'EMPRUNTEUR -0- Douxibme partie: Ansavse du DrQiet du Doint dg vue de I'Eml2ruMuX A.Confwrmation des donn6es factuslies contenues do la promlIr. et Is troisime partie, observations sur I'anslyse contenue danrs h premibre partle. 1 .L'ensemble des donn6es de la PremAire et de la Troisibme Partie concorde avec les donn6es disponibles A la Direction du projet. 2. observations sur l'analyse (Section 1 ..age 4 et paragraphe 13) L'analyse du fcnctionnerrent des brigades rnmcariis6es ne doit pas se baser uniquement sur les superficies annuolles des p6rimbtres qui ont fait l'objet d'intervention des engins mais elie doit aussi porter sur la nombre et l',Mpcrtance-des-op6rations effectu6es par chaque type d'engin au niveau des diff6rents p6rimbtres. L'intervention des brigades m6canis6es a 6t6 coniue avec la participation des Associations des Usagers des Eaux Agricoles aux frais de fonctionnement pour les op6rations urgentes de restauration de certains ouvrages d'irrigation endommag4s par les crues notamment dans les p6rimbtres d'6pandage dans lesquels le nombre et l'importance des crues capt4es conditionnent la prodction agricole. B-Bilan des actions de la Hanque Mandlale et de la KFW La Banque at la KFW orit participd activement a sever plusieurs contraintes lors de 1'ex4cution du projet, et ceci nar le nombre important des missions de concertations qu'elkis ont '97 04/30 16:51 5 520 42 MAMUA DAHA 03 organis6es. La contrainte majeure ayant 6t6 soulev6e est celle de la r6duction budg6taire et la mise en place d'un fond de roulement au niveau de la Tr6sorerie G6n6rale du Royaume. C-BIlan des actions de l'Emprunteur: Le Gouvernement du Maroc a donna une grande importance A la r6alisation des actions du projet vu son importance en mati6re do d6veloppoment de l'agriculture irrigu6e dans les p6rimAtres de petite et moyenne taille. Los efforts d6ploy6s par le Gouvernament Marocain so r6sument comme suit: * mobilisation d'un maximum de fonds disponible durant la p6riode de I'ex6cution du projet; 0 affectation des cadres supdrieurs comp6tents dans les divers domaines; I organisation satisfaisante de la gestion du projet au nivesi central at r6gional qui a 6te bas6e sur les lei9ons tir6es du premier Projet de d6veloppement de Ia Petite et Moyenne Hydraulique * cr6ation d'une structi.tre de coordination (comit6s) compos6e de diff6rents intet venants et de bdn6ficiaires du erojet (Comit6s Provincial et Directeur); Promulgation dfls vex-!s.m.. r6glementaires r6d3Ssant 1'organisation des agriculteurs dans los p6rimbtres irrigu6s en Petite et Moyenne Hydraulique en Association des Usagers des Eaux Agricoles pour la prise en charge des frais d'entretien et de gestion avec une participation aux premiers investissemants consentis par t'Administration pour la r6atisation de l'infrastructure d'irrigation. D-Relation entre la Banquo mondiale I KFW et I'Empruntaur Dans le cadre du projet de d4veloppement de la Petite et Moyenne hydraulique, las relations entrs Ie Gouvernement Maro, ain, A diff6rents niveaux ont 6t6 excellqntes, ce qui a facilit6 l'ex6cution du projet en question. No. du Nom du fediertcutecrt Sea perlmethe perlmehe I 1I / T"felouan A1.1 Gulgou A 3.2_m Al Hocelma ,"tcas o217- A1.3 A. Messoud / oKsa H Keblh *;B 2.15 81.4 Agadlr tahna /OK"carr A2.1 Echelkh /Sk tcimb e0 A2.2 Mouzrou -(taounate A 2.4 d A2.4 Zobzli Sfd Kcce:- __ ota a c 0 CIA 2.8 A2.5 7omgt.erl K(enllia SllKicmrz U A2.6 Ilzgul N'arga Sal -e7 i bs ' D A3.4 MA 3.3 A2.7 lazarine PAtAI) r A(3 D A 3 A2.8 Bolmot Jamoa d I i I s v A2.9 Targa Wassay Khemissel Mekne5 Mdthci B13 lagadiri Casablanca -' rn 82.14 Gendlr Benl SlIlmane trAzc0 le z B2,15 Dra El Jadldav e Bouleman C 82.17 Aln Jouala '3 6 t 82.18 litarmaouas A TLA N TIC ,/S \ /.5 52.19 Ain Halbal OCEA N /SeNal'Kher MA 35 A3.1 Oulat Khourlbga *EB2.119 *B3h e r I A3.2 Kilan Yarghil .r < 4 2.1- MddloUA3.1 A3.3 Gafall t A . A3.4 Mostlgmour Sall . l oad A.6. 0 A3.5 O. Boukhall El Kelaa des enl Mel l _ A3.6 A. H. Fatalaa Stathna0 -. A44.4 * A4.2W f-I. A3.7 Touroug (Azrtaf o 7 O A3.8 laghlcht / lsill A 2.2 K A Ei Sp4aghna ErachYdla B3.9 latahyani Essaoulra A, M " *EA2.5 Gotdrno 0 A4.1 Talghoumi Marokech A 4.1 1 2.15 f A 3 J El o / C Ta2 gullounl U ltudr A4.2 aounh A 1.21_ Kdo'l Mgok a PEIERIMEIRES A4.3 Bouhlou Anin11% A 4.7 A 2.0 * F. A4.4 Tlzgut PerenneF, C/) A4.6 Palmerale Aka O / rjM uarzazalo -e A4.7 Amkmk 2 ~~~~~~~oued 9C y ; \__t A4.7 AmIzmtz 2 znktIUtl M MA 2.7 / Q Epandage de crues v Note: PT 0 @ 0 Note: . .-~~~~~~ .~g daroudtannt A/ 00h Les petdm6tres A2.3, B2.10. AgadCDr + 2.1 A >100 haC5 52.11, 82.12. 2.16. 53.10 7 CD et B3.11 ne sont pas localls6s 6B 2.13 6 < to0 ha 2 dons la carte C D /Q leligoul t1ala t 0TIznlt O+-.. / '30lknil * g 1.4 >; Q Si4ge de DRA NA2.9 *A4.6 Qv rQ OA 3. 3 j *; Slego de OMVA / Guelmime F,, C . - [IA 3 El H Frontl6re Inlemalonaole - - - Fhontlre Inlemnallonale (approxlmatlve) Ton-Te n. oue - Chef lleu de ptovInce / | ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~0 SO IOU I SO Krn TC1397-61/MAROCLAW IMAGING Report No: 16601 Type: ICR