FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: PAD3010 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT ON A PROPOSED GRANT IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 20.8 MILLION (US$29.0 MILLION EQUIVALENT) TO THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF SÃO TOMÉ AND PRÍNCIPE FOR THE TRANSPORT SECTOR DEVELOPMENT AND COASTAL PROTECTION PROJECT February 28, 2019 Transport Global Practice Africa Region This document is being made publicly available prior to Board consideration. This does not imply a presumed outcome. This document may be updated following Board consideration and the updated document will be made publicly available in accordance with the Bank’s policy on Access to Information. . CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective January 31, 2019) SDR 0.71392875 = US$1 São Tomé and Príncipe Currency Unit = Novas Dobras (NDb) 21.0505996 SDR = US$1 0.04750458 US$ = NDb1 FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31 Regional Vice President: Hafez M. H. Ghanem Country Director: Elisabeth Huybens Senior Global Practice Director: Guangzhe Chen Practice Manager: Nicolas Peltier-Thiberge Task Team Leader: Mustapha Benmaamar ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AADT Average Annual Daily Traffic AC Asphaltic Concrete Agência Fiduciária de Administração de Projectos AFAP Fiduciary Agency for Project Administration AWP Annual Work Plans BP Bank Policy Centro de Aconselhamento Contra Violência Domestica CACVD Domestic Violence Counseling Center CEDAW Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women CERC Contingent Emergency Response Component COSSIL Procurement and Coordination and Supervision Office CPS Country Partnership Strategy DA Designated Account DFIL Disbursement and Financial Information Letter Direção Geral do Ambiente DGA Directorate General of Environment Direção dos Transportes Terrestres DTT Directorate of Terrestrial Transport EIB European Investment Bank EIRR Economic Internal Rate of Return Estrada Nacional 1 EN1 National Road 1 Estratégia Nacional para a Igualdade e Equidade de Género ENIEG National Strategy for Gender Equality and Equity in São Tomé and Príncipe ESIA Environmental and Social Impact Assessment ESMF Environmental and Social Management Framework EU European Union FM Financial Management Federação Nacional das Associações de Manutenção de Estradas FENAME National Federation of Road Maintenance Associations Fundo Rodoviário Nacional FRN National Road Fund FY Fiscal Year GBV Gender-based Violence GDP Gross Domestic Product GEF Global Environment Facility GHG Green House Gases Grupos de Interesse de Manutenção de Estradas GIME Roads Maintenance Intervention Groups GoSTP Government of São Tomé and Príncipe GRM Grievance Redress Mechanisms GRS Grievance Redress Service GRSF Global Road Safety Facility HDM Highway Development and Management IAASB International Auditing and Assurance Standards Board IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development ICZM Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plan IDA International Development Association IFMIS Integrated Financial Management System IFR Interim Financial Reports Inspeção Geral das Finanças IGF General Inspectorate of Finance IMF International Monetary Fund Instituto Nacional das Estradas INAE National Institute of Roads Instituto Nacional para Promoção e Equidade do Género - INPG National Institute for the Promotion of Gender Equity and Equality IPF Investment Project Financing IRM-OM Immediate Response Mechanism Operational Manual ISA International Standards on Auditing LDCF Least Developed Countries Fund M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MFD Maximizing Finance for Development Ministerio das Obras Publicas, Infraestructuras, Recursos Naturais e Ambiente MOPIRNA Ministry of Public Works, Infrastructures, Natural Resources and Environment MSIP Multi-Sectoral Investment Plan NAPA National Adaptation Program of Actions NDb Novas Dobras NDC Nationally Determined Contributions NGO Non-governmental Organization NPF New Procurement Framework NPV Net Present Value OP Operational Policy PAD Project Appraisal Document PAP Project-affected People PDO Project Development Objectives PFS Project Financial Statements PLR Performance and Learning Review PMSC Project Management Support Consultant PPSD Project Procurement Strategy for Development Projet de Réhabilitation des Infrastructures d’Appui à la Sécurité Alimentaire PRIASA Project for the rehabilitation of infrastructure to support food security PRSPII Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper II RAP Resettlement Action Plan RCP Representative Concentration Pathways RPF Resettlement Policy Framework RVO Netherland Bilateral Aid SDR Special Drawing Rights SDG Sustainable Development Goals SEA Sexual Exploitation and Abuse SoE Statement of Expenditure STP São Tomé and Príncipe TSDCP Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project WACA West Africa Coastal Areas Management Program WACA ResIP WACA Resilient Investment Project WBG World Bank Group The World Bank Sao Tome e Principe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) TABLE OF CONTENTS DATASHEET ................................................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined. I. STRATEGIC CONTEXT ...................................................................................................... 7 A. Country Context................................................................................................................................ 7 B. Sectoral and Institutional Context .................................................................................................... 8 C. Relevance to Higher Level Objectives............................................................................................. 10 II. PROJECT DESCRIPTION.................................................................................................. 11 A. Project Development Objective ..................................................................................................... 11 B. Project Components ....................................................................................................................... 11 C. Project Beneficiaries ....................................................................................................................... 14 D. Results Chain .................................................................................................................................. 14 E. World Bank support to climate change resilience and complementarity with the WACA Resilience Investment Project ............................................................................................................................ 15 F. Lessons Learned and Reflected in the Project Design .................................................................... 16 E. Rationale for World Bank Involvement and Role of Partners......................................................... 17 III. IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENTS ............................................................................ 18 A. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements .......................................................................... 18 B. Results Monitoring and Evaluation Arrangements......................................................................... 19 C. Sustainability................................................................................................................................... 20 IV. PROJECT APPRAISAL SUMMARY ................................................................................... 20 A. Technical, Economic and Financial Analysis ................................................................................... 20 Economic Analysis............................................................................................................................... 24 B. Fiduciary.......................................................................................................................................... 25 C. Safeguards ...................................................................................................................................... 27 V. KEY RISKS ..................................................................................................................... 33 VI. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND MONITORING ................................................................... 35 ANNEX 1: Implementation Arrangements and Support Plan .......................................... 44 ANNEX 2: Climate and Climate Change Analysis for São Tomé Island ............................. 54 ANNEX 3: Mitigating and Responding to Gender Based Violence, Including Sexual Exploitation and Abuse ................................................................................................. 59 ANNEX 4: Map of Project Intervention .......................................................................... 70 The World Bank Sao Tome e Principe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) DATASHEET BASIC INFORMATION BASIC_INFO_TABLE Country(ies) Project Name Sao Tome and Principe Sao Tome e Principe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project Project ID Financing Instrument Environmental Assessment Category Investment Project P161842 B-Partial Assessment Financing Financing & Implementation Modalities [ ] Multiphase Programmatic Approach (MPA) [✓] Contingent Emergency Response Component (CERC) [ ] Series of Projects (SOP) [ ] Fragile State(s) [ ] Disbursement-linked Indicators (DLIs) [✓] Small State(s) [ ] Financial Intermediaries (FI) [ ] Fragile within a non-fragile Country [ ] Project-Based Guarantee [ ] Conflict [ ] Deferred Drawdown [ ] Responding to Natural or Man-made Disaster [ ] Alternate Procurement Arrangements (APA) Expected Approval Date Expected Closing Date 21-Mar-2019 30-Jun-2024 Bank/IFC Collaboration No Proposed Development Objective(s) The proposed PDOs is to improve connectivity, sustainability, safety and climate resilience of selected roads. Components Component Name Cost (US$, millions) Page 1 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) Component 1: Road Sector Institutional Strengthening 2.50 Component 2: Sao-Tome - Guadalupe road rehabilitation 22.00 Component 3: Project management and implementation support 2.50 Unallocated 2.00 Component 4: Contingency Emergency Response 0.00 Organizations Borrower: Ministry of Planning, Finance and Blue Economy Implementing Agency: INAE (instituto Nacional das Estradas) AFAP PROJECT FINANCING DATA (US$, Millions) SUMMARY -NewFin1 Total Project Cost 29.00 Total Financing 29.00 of which IBRD/IDA 29.00 Financing Gap 0.00 DETAILS -NewFinEnh1 World Bank Group Financing International Development Association (IDA) 29.00 IDA Grant 29.00 IDA Resources (in US$, Millions) Credit Amount Grant Amount Guarantee Amount Total Amount National PBA 0.00 29.00 0.00 29.00 Total 0.00 29.00 0.00 29.00 Expected Disbursements (in US$, Millions) Page 2 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) WB Fiscal Year 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Annual 0.63 3.37 7.30 7.79 6.52 3.39 Cumulative 0.63 4.00 11.30 19.09 25.61 29.00 INSTITUTIONAL DATA Practice Area (Lead) Contributing Practice Areas Transport Environment & Natural Resources Climate Change and Disaster Screening This operation has been screened for short and long-term climate change and disaster risks Gender Tag Does the project plan to undertake any of the following? a. Analysis to identify Project-relevant gaps between males and females, especially in light of Yes country gaps identified through SCD and CPF b. Specific action(s) to address the gender gaps identified in (a) and/or to improve women or Yes men's empowerment c. Include Indicators in results framework to monitor outcomes from actions identified in (b) Yes SYSTEMATIC OPERATIONS RISK-RATING TOOL (SORT) Risk Category Rating 1. Political and Governance ⚫ Substantial 2. Macroeconomic ⚫ Moderate 3. Sector Strategies and Policies ⚫ Moderate 4. Technical Design of Project or Program ⚫ Moderate 5. Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability ⚫ Substantial 6. Fiduciary ⚫ Substantial 7. Environment and Social ⚫ Substantial Page 3 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) 8. Stakeholders ⚫ Moderate 9. Other 10. Overall ⚫ Substantial COMPLIANCE Policy Does the project depart from the CPF in content or in other significant respects? [ ] Yes [✓] No Does the project require any waivers of Bank policies? [ ] Yes [✓] No Safeguard Policies Triggered by the Project Yes No Environmental Assessment OP/BP 4.01 ✔ Performance Standards for Private Sector Activities OP/BP 4.03 ✔ Natural Habitats OP/BP 4.04 ✔ Forests OP/BP 4.36 ✔ Pest Management OP 4.09 ✔ Physical Cultural Resources OP/BP 4.11 ✔ Indigenous Peoples OP/BP 4.10 ✔ Involuntary Resettlement OP/BP 4.12 ✔ Safety of Dams OP/BP 4.37 ✔ Projects on International Waterways OP/BP 7.50 ✔ Projects in Disputed Areas OP/BP 7.60 ✔ Legal Covenants Sections and Description (Schedule 2, Section I.A.3.b) AFAP shall maintain staff throughout the implementation of the Project with functions and responsibilities acceptable to the Association, including inter alia a general director, a financial manager, an accountant, a procurement specialist, a financial assistant, a Project monitoring and evaluation officer, an internal auditor (which shall be appointed no later than six (6) months after the Effective Date), and finance staff all as Page 4 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) further detailed in the Project Operations Manual. Sections and Description (Schedule 2, Section I.F.8) The Recipient shall, and shall cause the Project Implementing Entities to (a) maintain, throughout Project implementation, and publicize the availability of a grievance mechanism, in form and substance satisfactory to the Association, to hear and determine fairly and in good faith all complaints raised in relation to the Project, (b) take all measures necessary to implement the determinations made by such mechanism in a manner satisfactory to the Association and (c) ensure that such mechanism is operational within three (3) months after the Effective Date. Sections and Description (Schedule 2, Section IV.A) Within two (2) months after the Effective Date, the Recipient shall cause AFAP to customize the accounting software to maintain separate records and ledger accounts for the Project in a manner acceptable to the Association. Sections and Description (Schedule 2, Section IV.B) Within six (6) months after the Effective Date, the Recipient shall, and shall cause INAE, through the GBV Support Organization, to, have an action plan detailing (i) measures that endeavor to prevent and respond to gender-based violence and (ii) the procedural, budget and institutional arrangements and actions needed to implement these measures, and including, inter alia, an accountability and response framework and measures that contractors will be required to take: (1) prepared in form and substance satisfactory to the Association and INAE and on the basis of appropriate consultations; (2) submitted to the Association for review and approval; and (3) thereafter, adopted. Sections and Description (Schedule 2, Section IV. C) The Recipient shall ensure that all compensation required under the RAP has been completed no later than the start of any construction activities under the Project Conditions Type Description Effectiveness (Article IV, 4.01.a) The Project Operations Manual (including the Financial Procedures Manual) has been prepared by AFAP in consultation with INAE and adopted by the Project Implementing Entities and such manual is in form and substance satisfactory to the Association. Type Description Disbursement (Schedule II, Section III, B, 1.a.ii) The Recipient and/or the Project Implementing Entity/ies has prepared and adopted the CER Implementation Plan and the CER Implementation Manual in accordance with the provisions of Section I.E.1(a) of the Schedule II to the Financing Agreement and Section I.D.1(a) of the Schedule to the Project Agreement, respectively. Page 5 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) Type Description Disbursement (Schedule II, Section III, B, 1.a.iii) The Recipient and/or the Project Implementing Entity/ies has prepared, adopted, and disclosed any safeguards instruments required for the CER Component of the Project in accordance with the provisions of Section I.F.9 of Schedule II to the Financing Agreement and Section I.E.9 of the Schedule to the Project Agreement, respectively. Page 6 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) I. STRATEGIC CONTEXT A. Country Context 1. The Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe (STP) is a small island state comprised of two main volcanic islands, and several islets located off the west coast of central Africa in the Gulf of Guinea. São Tomé, the largest island, covers an area of 859 km² with around 192,000 inhabitants. Príncipe Island, situated 150 km to the north, covers about 142 km² with around 8,200 inhabitants. The country is divided into six districts (Agua Grande, Cantagalo, Caué, Lembá, Lobata, Mé-Zóchi) plus the Autonomous Region of Príncipe, which has been self-governed since 1995. 2. As many of small island states, STP is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change and sea level rise such as coastal or river mouth flash floods, storms and drought episodes. STP shares many of the challenges affecting other West African coastal countries: severe coastal erosion and shoreline loss; overexploitation of fisheries and coastal aggregates; rapid urbanization and unsustainable land use; and overlapping policies affecting the proper management of the coast. Because of its geography, and its volcanic origin, most of the national infrastructure is in low lying areas along the shoreline. The negative impacts of Climate Change are evident in all sectors of the national economy including agriculture, fisheries but also transport. Climate change adaptation and risk reduction from climate change impacts is a priority for the national authorities. STP has taken steps to identify measures1 to contribute to the reduction of national Green House Gases (GHG) emissions and improve resilience to climate change. However, the implementation of these measures both for adaptation and mitigation require financial resources and institutional capacity. 3. STP is a low-middle income country. Gross National Income per capita is estimated at US$1,770 (Atlas Method); Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita is US$1,9122. STP’s economy is based on services and the agriculture, with an almost non-existent industrial sector. The main economic activities are tourism, retail, transport, communication, and construction. Agriculture and fishing are a mainstay for most of the population despite its modest contribution to GDP. In 2012, the agriculture sector employed 20 percent of the work force. STP faces the usual hardships associated with small island states with no natural resources. Domestic production is small, with almost all consumer goods being imported. The main agricultural product is cocoa, whose production is largely exported, although export volumes have declined in the last couple of years due to weather related problems. Capital goods and fuels are also imported. Tourism is a relevant economic activity – generating more foreign currency inflow than cocoa – but still far from its potential in terms of exports, GDP contribution and job creation. As a result, STP presents a structural current account deficit that is normally compensated by some foreign direct investment and largely by external aid. STP is in a situation of debt distress. 4. Poverty remains high and disproportionately affects women3. In 2015, more than 60 percent of the population was estimated to be living below the poverty line. Poverty affects women (71.3 percent) more than men (63.4 percent). Unequal income distribution shows that the gender wage gap is still high in STP. On average, women earn half as much as men do. The rate of extreme poverty is higher in families headed by women (12.8 1 The World Bank Group (WBG) has initiated its support to the Government of STP on its adaptation agenda with assistance to the preparation of their National Adaptation Program of Actions (NAPA.) in 2006. 2 Source: World Development Indicators for 2017. 3 São Tomé and Príncipe Transitional Interim Country Strategic Plan (Year 2018-2019). World Food Program. Page 7 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) percent) than in those headed by men (10.7 percent). In the education sector, the country has made significant progress in gender equality. About half of the students enrolled in primary school are girls (49 percent) and in secondary level, the net enrollment rate is higher for girls than for boys (65 percent versus 55 percent). However, gender equality and empowerment of women remain a challenge. The country is ranked 115TH in terms of gender inequality and still faces discrimination against women in access to employment: 60 percent of men are economically active against only 40 percent women. 5. Despite its challenging development and macroeconomic situation, the country has recently made progress on the economic front. After pegging the local currency to the Euro, inflation was brought to an all-time low of four percent in 2015. The country successfully implemented business environment reforms, bringing it to the top among African countries in some dimensions of the Doing Business survey. In 2017, GDP growth was sustained to 3.9 percent. Inflation is relatively low (4.7 percent in 2017) and some fiscal consolidation is expected due to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) program, which requires the primary budget to be reduced. B. Sectoral and Institutional Context 6. Poor connectivity and unsafe mobility due to poorly maintained roads and limited transport services limit access to markets, inputs and economic opportunities. Built on volcanoes, STP’s population and economic activities are mainly located along the attractive coastlines. Therefore, a large part of the national primary road network (National Roads (Estrada Nacional, EN) 1 and 2) is located along the coast. Stronger and increasingly unpredictable spring storms, combined with extensive sand mining, have led to high rates of coastline erosion (about 0.2-1.2 meters a year), which exacerbates the threat to the coastal infrastructures. It creates a heavier transport burden for women with an impact at the household level and on economic development. Lack of adequate transport infrastructure and high transportation costs also limit expansion of the agricultural and fishing sector in the country. This has an impact on the livelihoods of women who represent 12 percent of the total workforce in agriculture. 7. The responsibility for all transport related activities in STP falls within the Ministry of Public Works, Infrastructure, Natural Resources and Environment (Ministerio das Obras Publicas, Infraestructuras, Recursos Naturais e Ambiente, MOPIRNA). STP has a total of 1,300 km of roads out of which 230 km are paved. The National Institute of Roads (Instituto Nacional das Estradas, INAE) manages the road network. Transport services are regulated by the Directorate for Terrestrial Transports (Direção dos Transportes Terrestres, DTT). The National Road Fund (Fundo Rodoviário Nacional, FRN), an autonomous government fund oversees financing of road maintenance activities. INAE is responsible for road maintenance, plans road projects, and compiles and manages the national road data base. 8. STP uses a performance-based contracting approach to maintain its road network. This approach is mainstreamed as a road management practice through the national federation of the associations in charge of road maintenance (Federação Nacional das Associações de Manutenção de Estradas, FENAME) using Roads Maintenance Intervention Groups (Grupos de Interesse para Manutenção de Estradas, GIMEs). Page 8 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) Box 1. Description of GIME Established in 2005 with support from the European Development Fund, the GIMEs are community organizations that have contracts with INAE to maintain both the rural and urban roads in the country using a results-based approach. For the overall coordination and representation, a national federation -FENAME - oversees the groups’ interaction and negotiation with INAE. In total, 32 GIMEs cover the country. The GIMEs carry out routine maintenance of paved and unpaved roads. At their peak, the GIMEs employed 1,700 persons, providing livelihoods for 8,000 Santomeans (around 5 percent of the total population) with each group having about 50 members on average, half of which are women, all from local communities. The work performed by the groups is regularly monitored by INAE, with one passage per month to identify what needs to be done for each road segment and another one to determine the status of the roads vs objectives and possible penalties. These penalties could be a reduction in remuneration, but mostly they are settled through the provision of additional work. The expected level of maintenance of the roads is discussed and agreed with each GIME for each road segment, following national guidelines and conventions signed between INAE and FENAME. The exact results criteria depend on the type of road (asphalt, paved with stones, or earth) and its initial state. In addition to receiving income, GIME members benefit from local recognition, access to tools, and trainings. These GIMEs can also undertake more elaborate road maintenance such as filling pot holes, performing coastal protection or slope stabilization works using gabions. Although GIMEs used to provide routine maintenance for the county’s 1,300 km of road network at an average unit cost of US$1,000 per kilometer per year, today they only cover 860 km due to budget constraints following the end of the support of the European Development Fund. 9. Road maintenance groups such as the GIME network have provided significant employment opportunities for women in STP. The GIME network is one of the main employment providers for women. Among the 1,700 people engaged in the activities of GIME, nearly 50 percent are women and among the 240 Brigade Chiefs 29 percent are women, however only two women have higher management positions. A total of 254 GIME members work along the São Tomé – Neves (27 km) road of which 51 percent are women. 10. The STP FRN, established in 2005, is supposed to cover all routine maintenance needs (estimated around US$1.3 million/year) but currently has difficulties in mobilizing revenues. Currently only the proceeds from vehicle license fees (US$0.25 million/year) are mobilized and channeled directly to the Road Fund. There is a need to support GIMEs and the Road Fund to consolidate this institutional set up and sustain the existing financing mechanism and improve road management practices. As a first step, technical assistance is required to estimate road maintenance needs, the financing gap and the level of road user charges (fuel levy, vehicle license fee and levy on vehicle insurance) that are required to fill the financing gap. Further support is required to develop a road asset management system and to improve INAE, FRN and GIMEs technical and management capacity. 11. Most of the infrastructure is exposed to climate-related hazards and protecting road infrastructure against coastal hazards is a challenge. The country’s coastal roads, including the urban road along the waterfront of São Tomé city, are particularly exposed to coastal hazards: coastal erosion and inundation from submersion and wave overtopping. The current coastal protections along the coastline from the international airport to the city center are degraded. They no longer protect the sea front and the main roads from impacts caused by submersion and erosion, affecting both the pavement and the structure of the road. For instance, the road connecting the international airport to the city center was washed away by the sea around thirty years ago. The current road section was rebuilt 30 meters further inland, but in a place already exposed to climate change impacts. Some localized temporary interventions have been undertaken, but not at a scale needed to protect the road Page 9 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) infrastructure in the long term. Protecting the São Tomé sea front will also support tourism development as the waterfront area has the significant tourism potential. A more elaborate presentation of the climate change analysis is presented in Annex 2. 12. Road Safety remains a major issue in STP. The number of fatalities was estimated to 60 or a rate of 31.1 persons per 100,000 of population in 2013. This is higher than the African average of 26.6 and is ten times the rates experienced in best performing European Union (EU) countries where fatality per 100,000 persons is as low as 3.7 in United Kingdom or 3.9 in Netherlands4. For instance, the number of accidents along the Road National 1 have reached 250 causing in average 7 fatalities between 2013 and 2017. The number of motorcycles has also increased significantly in STP and this presents an additional challenge to road safety. This is a new mode of transport in STP and requires changes of regulations, road design/traffic management and road user behavior. The Government of São Tomé and Príncipe (GoSTP) seeks to gradually improve road safety by reducing the fatality and injury rate and partly meet the Road Safety Sustainable Development Goal. The Government would like to develop and take systematic coordinated actions around a road safety strategy and action plan. 13. Improved connectivity along the National Road EN1 and coastal protection will lead to wider economic impact. The National Road EN1 provides transport access to basic social services and economic opportunities to around 55 percent of STP’s population. It connects São Tomé (70,000 inhabitants)5 to Guadalupe (20,000) and Neves (15,000) along 27 km. The paved road is 5-6 meters wide with a dangerous horizontal and vertical alignment. It is mostly in bad conditions and in need for rehabilitation. The average traffic is around 1,500 vehicles/day with a high presence of motorcycles in urban/town areas. The road is part of an economic development corridor connecting São Tomé to the North East region. It is the only road link to the fuel depot at Neves. This fuel is used for transport services and to provide electricity services to the rest of the country. The road is also used by small farmers and fishermen from the western part of the island to bring their products to the markets in the capital. The last section (around 12 km) between Guadalupe and Neves has a long portion of coastal road bordering a non- stabilized high slope on the left and the sea on the right with occasional sea walls protection. C. Relevance to Higher Level Objectives 14. The proposed project is well aligned with the WBG STP previous Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) FY2014- 20186, as well as with the Performance and Learning Review (PLR) under preparation at the time of the approval of this project. The CPS and PLR place emphasis on creating an environment that encourages private sector investment in the tourism, fisheries, and agribusiness sectors. The proposed project contributes to the target of the CPS and PLR by rehabilitating key transport infrastructure to improve connectivity and access to gateways at both domestic and regional or international levels. The country’s geographic morphology and location increases infrastructure vulnerability to climate changes effects. Therefore, increasing transport infrastructure’s resilience is well aligned with the priorities outlined in the CPS and the PLR. 15. The project is also in line with the 2012 Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSPII) which identified the need to overcome the lack of adequate physical infrastructure, particularly in the energy, telecommunications and transportation sectors, as an important constraint limiting opportunities for growth and development. The PRSP-II 4 WHO, “Global Status Report on Road Safety”, 2013. 5 2012 population census. 6 World Bank. 2014. Sao Tome and Principe - Country partnership strategy for the period FY2014-18 (English). Page 10 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) highlights STP’s need to expand its access to information technology and better utilize air and water transport to reduce its isolation. 16. The proposed project will contribute to the implementation of the “Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC)” prepared by STP for the twenty-first session of the Conference of the Parties (COP21). The NDC summarize the principal measures required to adapt to climate change risks. The main climate change adaption measures stated in the NDC include resilience to erosion and maritime as well as river and storm flooding of coastal areas through improved Coastal Protection of vulnerable communities. II. PROJECT DESCRIPTION A. Project Development Objective PDO Statement 17. The proposed project development objectives (PDO) is to improve connectivity, sustainability, safety and climate resilience of selected roads. PDO Level Indicators 18. The key expected results from the implementation of the project and the respective monitoring indicators are: (a) Improve road connectivity. This will be measured through: (i) Reduction in vehicle operating cost on the project road section for cars per km (US$). (ii) Reduction in vehicle operating cost on the project road section for trucks per km (US$); (iii) Reduction in average travel time to go from São Tomé to Guadalupe by car (minutes). (b) Improve road sustainability. This will be measured through: (i) Road asset management system developed and implemented to inform the annual road maintenance program (yes/no) (c) Improve road safety on the project road section and on ST road network by reducing accident risks. This will be measured through: (ii) Percentage of road accident black spots corrected based on the number of small-scale road safety interventions on the road network (percentage) (d) Improve the resilience of the project roads to climate and disaster risk. This will be measured through: (iii) Length of roads made resilient to climate and disaster risk (km) B. Project Components 19. The proposed transport development and coastal protection project will rehabilitate National Road EN1 from São Tomé to Guadalupe (13.3 km). The project will also strengthen the technical and management capacity of INAE, Road Fund and GIME with a focus on climate resilience. The project will develop climate resilience measures to Page 11 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) protect the roads from landslides and climate change impacts. The project will reinforce the capacity of the DTT, improve road safety on the national network, through development and implementation of a national strategy and small-scale road safety interventions to eliminate black spots. 20. The proposed project would consist of three components totaling US$29.0 million equivalent: Component 1: Road Sector Institutional Strengthening (Estimated Cost: US$2.5 million equivalent from IDA financing): 21. This project component will consolidate the road sector institutional set up and improve road asset management practices with a focus on climate resilience and road safety, including: (a) Sub-component 1.1: Technical and management capacity strengthening of GIME and local communities. This sub-component will seek to strengthen the capacity of local communities to engage in road maintenance activities which can serve as entry points to raising their access to economic opportunities and income. An emphasis will be placed on increasing the participation of women in the design, planning and execution of the maintenance programs through their involvement in the GIMEs, and dedicated training. (b) Sub-component 1.2: Strengthening the institutional capacity of the FRN and INAE in mobilizing road maintenance financing and improving the road asset management system. (c) Sub-component 1.3: Preparation of the climate vulnerability assessment of the national road network to inform road maintenance strategy and supporting studies for future transport protection projects, including the preparation of a design guidance manual for drainages, slope stabilization and coastal protection intervention along the roads sectors. (d) Sub-component 1.4: Implementation of innovative road maintenance and coastal road protection interventions. This will implement some of the recommendations from the findings of the climate vulnerability assessment and the design guidance manuals to identify affordable protection interventions. The piloting of the maintenance and protection interventions will be carried out by GIMEs with technical assistance during the design and supervision of works. (e) Sub-component 1.5: Preparation of a road safety strategy and action plan, with implementation of priority actions. The preparation of the road safety strategy and action plan will be financed with the support of Global Road Safety Facility (GRSF). This strategy will focus on regulating and on seeking behavioral change of motorcycles use. This sub-component will also finance a road safety awareness campaign with a focus on motorcycles and on children and women as road users. (f) Sub-component 1.6: Small scale road safety interventions along the entire São Tomé road network (1,300 km) to identify black spots, design, implement and supervise small-scale road safety interventions to improve road safety. This sub-component will also finance a set of road safety priority activities related to motorcycles. Page 12 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) (g) Sub-component 1.7: Preparation of the detailed engineering design, the bidding documents and the safeguards instrument of the road section Guadalupe – Neves (13.7 km). Component 2: São-Tomé - Guadalupe Road Rehabilitation - Civil works and project supervision (Cost estimate: US$22.0 million equivalent from IDA financing). (a) Sub-component 2.1: Rehabilitation and upgrade of the existing EN1 from São Tomé to Guadalupe (13.3 km). The paved road is 5 meters wide with a dangerous horizontal and vertical alignment. It is mostly in bad conditions and in need for rehabilitation. The upgrade will include the upgrade of sidewalks to improve the safety of pedestrians, composed of mainly women; the improvement of the drainage system to reduce the exposure of the road to the risks of flooding; the upgrade of bridges, to reflect the possible changes in river discharges due to climate change; and the stabilization of the slopes along the road. The cost estimate is around US$21.0 million including contingencies; (b) Sub-component 2.2: Construction supervision and quality assurance services. (Estimated Cost: US$1.0 million). Component 3: Project Management and Implementation Support (Estimated Cost: US$2.5 million equivalent from IDA financing). This project component will finance to sub-components: (a) Sub-component 3.1: Support to operation and incremental costs for the Project Implementation Entities - Fiduciary Agency for Project Administration (Agência Fiduciária de Administração de Projtos (AFAP) and INAE) including, implementation support to contract management of the main civil works activities under the project. (b) Sub-component 3.2: Project management support consultants to fill AFAP and INAE technical and management capacity gaps. Component 4: Contingency Emergency Response (US$0.00 million from IDA financing). This zero-cost component would support preparedness and rapid response to an Eligible Crisis or Emergency, if needed. Following the declaration of a disaster or state of emergency, it allows for reallocation of credit and grant proceeds from other project components under streamlined procurement and disbursement procedures, or a mechanism to channel additional funds, should they become available, resulting from an emergency. These resources would be pooled with resources coming from other projects financed by the World Bank in the country. An Immediate Response Mechanism Coordinating Agency and expenditure management procedures will be defined in an Immediate Response Mechanism Operational Manual (IRM-OM), to be prepared separately and approved by the World Bank, in line with guidance provided under World Bank Investment Project Financing (IPF) Policy, paragraph 12 on ‘Projects in Situations of Urgent Need of Assistance or Capacity Constraints’. Unallocated: (US$2.0 million equivalent from IDA financing) 22. The overall project financing envelope is proposed to be US$29.0 million (inclusive of taxes, physical and price contingencies). Page 13 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) Table 1: Estimated Project Costs (inclusive of taxes, US$ million) Project Components IDA Financing, US$ million Component 1: Road Sector Institutional Strengthening 2.50 Component 2: Rehabilitation of the São-Tomé - Guadalupe Road 22.00 Rehabilitation Component 3: Project Management and Implementation Support 2.50 Component 4: CERC 0.00 Unallocated 2.00 Total IDA Financing 29.00 C. Project Beneficiaries 23. The National Road EN1 from São Tomé to Neves via Guadalupe will provide direct connection to 105,000 people or around 55 percent of the total population of São Tomé (2012). The primary project beneficiaries are the road users. Road-users are expected to benefit from the rehabilitation and road safety improvements including: (i) better road quality and level of serviceability; (ii) avoiding or deferring costly congestion bottlenecks expected based on mid-term traffic projections; (iii) better road safety through new alignments to avoid hazardous crossing, in particular by women, of urban areas by heavy transit traffic; and (iv) savings derived from shorter travel times. The project will directly contribute to economic development by reducing transportation costs and linking communities to São Tomé - a center for employment, and an outlet for agricultural products and commercial goods. Road safety improvements will also reduce the annual economic losses associated with road accidents. The proposed project will provide employment to the GIMEs’ communities (half of them being women). Improvement of road safety at the national level will benefit everyone in the country. D. Results Chain Page 14 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) E. World Bank support to climate change resilience and complementarity with the WACA Resilience Investment Project 24. The WBG support to STP to address Climate Change impacts started in 2006 with the support to the preparation of the NAPA. NAPA was followed by the Adaptation to Climate Change Project (P111669), to implement some of the identified actions. The project objectives were to increase the adaptive capacity of the vulnerable coastal community to the adverse effects of climate variability and change. The project, active from 2011 to 2017, has also strengthened the technical capacity of the main institutions involved in the National Committee for Climate Change. A second phase of the adaptation intervention, started in 2018 as part of the regional West Africa Coastal Areas Management Resilient Investment Project (WACA ResIP- P162337, see Box 2). This scales up the operations of the first phase to cover additional communities, including risk assessment mapping for the entire country, and the implementation of green/grey adaptation measures and carry out policy reforms to improve coastal resilience. A Multi-sectoral Investment Plan (MSIP) for the resilience of the coastal areas was prepared as part of the project preparation activities of WACA ResIP and has been formally adopted by the Directorate General of Planning and the Directorate General of Environment (Direção Geral de Ambiente, DGA). Box 2. WACA ResIP and its link with the Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project Following the results of the first Adaptation to Climate Change project (P111669), and the need to scale up the approaches, a second phase has been prepared as part of the regional project - West Africa Coastal Area Resilient Investment Project – WACA ResIP – (P162337). Active since July 2018, the WACA ResIP project aims to bring the regional dimension, promote innovative approaches for adaptation, share experience and expertise and technologies to strengthen the resilience of the coastal areas. WACA ResIP is financed by a US$8.0 million IDA grant and a US$1.15 million Global Environment Facility (GEF)- International Water grant. It is implemented by the DGA under the MOPIRNA. In relation to the proposed transport development and coastal protection project, WACA ResIP will finance: • Preparing and implementing the national Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plan (ICZM), including: o Capacity building of the different institutions involved in coastal zone Management (DGA, INAE and DTT) in ICZM (including definition of set-back zones, Climate and disaster risks) o Preparing regulations related to coastal zone management o Preparing and updating of at least one of the coastal zone master plan o Establishing the coastal observatory as part of the national environmental observatory • Strengthening the capacity of the National Institute for Meteorology and the National Committee for Civil Protection, to assess the coastal and climate- induced hazards, including: o Development of a model to predict the propagation of waves to the coastlines, and to estimate the impacts of coastal hazards, to develop coastal hazard maps, including o Development of local risk maps in 10 local pilot sites for current and future conditions, using participatory approaches o Improvement of the early warning systems, blocking of some roads if dangerous weather is forecast • Piloting coastal adaptation solutions in nine coastal rural and semi-urban communities (Santa Catarina, Micolo, Pantufo, Praia Melao, Io Grande, Ribeira Afonso, Malanza, Praia Burra and Praia Abade): o Construction of hybrid (combination of traditional and nature-based) solutions for coastal protections and river flood drainage systems o Development of set-back zones, to allow the planned relocation of population living in at-risk areas o Strengthening the capacity of local risk committees to maintain protection structures, involving GIMEs and INAE Page 15 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) Additionally, a US$6.0 million GEF- Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) grant will finance the following activities complementarity to the transport project: • Acquisition of two marine stations and observation equipment to improve the monitoring of sea conditions • Protection of the coastal roads and area of Pantufo, using a combination of rock revetment and breakwaters • Massive beach nourishment combined with protection structures in Praia Gamboa, Praia Loxinga and Praia Cruz 25. The project will provide support to implement some of the priority activities identified in the Multi-Sectoral Investment Plan for the resilience of the coastal areas. Activities identified include the preparation of guidance manuals for resilience, development of sectoral framework for risk reduction in transport, construction of coastal protection infrastructure with identification of conventional and nature-based adaptation measures. This project will also emphasize building the technical and management capacity of INAE, DTT, FRN, and the GIMEs to improve coastal and road management practices. F. Lessons Learned and Reflected in the Project Design 26. The proposed project builds on the past and on-going World Bank support to STP to improve its adaptation and resilience to Climate Change impacts since 2006. This project will also build on the lessons drawn from similar projects implemented in the Pacific Islands and in other regions that more exposed to climate change impacts. Lessons: (a) Addressing climate change impacts requires a holistic approach. Adequate and coordinated measures at various levels are required to address climate change impacts. This ranges from project design, regulations, management, access to information and capacity building (human resources, technical and financial capacity) within a range of key government roles and institutions. This synergy will be reflected across the project components (capacity building, vulnerability assessment, actions plans, improved design standard, mainstreaming in construction and maintenance) to address climate change in a holistic manner. (b) Costs and environmental impacts can be reduced by using locally sustainable materials for enhancing roads climate resilience. Significant regional variations in climate are common in many African countries, including STP. This variation may provide opportunities to enhance use of local materials and reduce construction costs. For instance, the approaches developed in pacific island countries have led to an increased use of naturally occurring materials, thereby reducing significantly the construction costs. Similar approaches will be used in this project, by preparing a strategy for climate resilience of the road network, the identification of affordable coastal protection interventions and associated design guidance manual, with a focus on solutions with local material and local capacities. (c) A sustainable road maintenance financing mechanism will consolidate the labor-intensive performance based and gender inclusive experience with GIMEs. Despite varying capacity levels, the participation of GIMEs has proved to be an efficient and sustainable method of maintaining roads while simultaneously providing employment to local communities, including for women. Few countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have managed to successfully mainstream performance-based contract approaches in road asset management and the experience of GIMEs needs to be Page 16 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) consolidated. This can only be achieved by putting in place a sustainable road maintenance financing mechanism, as it was done in other regions, like in South America, which helped to secure sustainable and efficient road maintenance. (d) Gradual strengthening of the project beneficiaries’ implementation capacity is essential to ensure sustainability. As a developing small island state, STP is short of management and technical staff to implement development partners projects. Project implementation arrangements should provide an opportunity to build and strengthen in-house institutional capacity. The project institutional strengthening component will include activities to strengthen the implementing capacity. (e) Small island contexts require a tailored approach to estimating costs. Projects implemented in similar small island contexts (e.g. Pacific islands) show that project costs were underestimated due to relatively high consultants’ rates and unit costs of civil works. This can be attributed to limited competition and remoteness from major markets. To mitigate the risk of cost overruns, civil works cost estimates will be based on the detailed engineering design, including adequate contingencies. In addition, a small amount of the total project cost will also be kept unallocated which could be used to cover unforeseen additional project cost overruns. (f) Specific attention is needed to ensure the inclusion of women as beneficiaries and to mitigate gender-based violence (GBV) risks. Experience from rural road maintenance programs in other countries where women have been employed as workers have been successful in providing a source of income for women and thereby also improving their livelihoods. The project will seek to promote women’s employment in the road sector. Public consultations conducted in the context of the safeguards instruments revealed that there have been cases of physical violence against women. The project is designed to mitigate and respond to cases related to Sexual Exploitation and Abuse (SEA) based on local context and lessons learned from international experience. E. Rationale for World Bank Involvement and Role of Partners 27. The World Bank is providing strategic support to the GoSTP to identify and implement a transport development and coastal protection program as part of the Multi-Sectoral Investment Plan for the resilience of the coastal areas (MSIP). The GoSTP has already identified two priority activities of this program (i) the rehabilitation and coastal protection of the National Road EN1 which will be financed by the project (US$29 million) and (ii) the coastal protection of the three STP bays and the rehabilitation of the Marginal road which is the direct extension of the EN1, which will be financed by European Investment Bank (EIB) and Netherland Bilateral Aid (RVO) (US$30 million). This latter activity consists of the rehabilitation of the Marginal road (8.8 km) and of the improvement of the coastal protection of around 6.0 km of the Lagarto and Ana Chaves bays and part of the Pantufo coastal area. In addition to strengthening the resilience of the urban areas to the effects of climate change, the main objectives of these activities are (i) to increase the attractiveness of the sea front for tourism; (ii) to attract investors in recreation activities; and (iii) to increase the walkability of the city front. The US$15 million Grant co-financing from RVO and US$15 million concessional loan from EIB. 28. The proposed project will also complement the support to the GIMEs provided by (Project for the rehabilitation of infrastructure to support food security, Projet de Réhabilitation des Infrastructures d’Appui à la Sécurité Alimentaire, PRIASA), financed by the African Development Bank. During the first phase, PRIASA provided financial support to the GIME through direct contract to upgrade secondary and tertiary roads. In the second phase, which Page 17 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) started in 2018, PRIASA financed the acquisition of equipment for GIMEs to undertake more complex road maintenance interventions. 29. Traffic demand on STP roads is not high enough to attract private investment, However GIMEs contribute indirectly to the Maximizing Finance for Development (MFD) agenda by reducing the road maintenance financing gap. GIMEs use of performance-based contracts increases road management efficiency and contributes therefore to reducing road maintenance financing gap. In addition to offering and sustaining employment opportunities to local community members, the overall cost reduction of maintenance interventions could reach 30 percent, compared to input-based approach. This management practices are well aligned with a wider objective of MFD. PRIASA II - Rehabilitation of rural Future roads phases - Road maintenance equipment for GIMEs 30. GRSF support: GRSF will support the project to conduct a road safety management capacity review in STP. This will help identify the required measures for improving the existing institutional framework for the implementation and coordination of road safety activities with a focus on identifying measures to reducing motorcycle related road accidents. Data collection and qualitative interviews will be used to conduct a review of the existing arrangements for the management and coordination of road safety activities to have a better understanding of the motorcycle road accidents. The findings and recommendations will be used to develop a Road Safety Strategy and Action Plan. The findings will also help identify a selected priority action to reduce motorcycle road accidents that will be implemented during this project. III. IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENTS A. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements 31. AFAP (Agência Fiduciária de Administração de Projectos) is the fiduciary agency for project administration in STP. AFAP has a track record in the implementation of World Bank-financed education, telecommunications, and social protection and energy projects and will extend its service to the project. The INAE will provide the technical leadership for project implementation. INAE reports to the MOPIRNA. 32. AFAP will have the fiduciary responsibility for the day-to-day management of the project and coordination of project-related activities and report to the Steering Committee to ensure clear communication with all relevant ministries and obtain decisions on issues pertaining to multiple government stakeholders. A project monitoring and evaluation (M&E) officer will be appointed and will report jointly to INAE and AFAP on technical activities Page 18 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) related to project implementation. The project M&E officer will be responsible for the technical implementation parts of the project, with the support of the project supervision consultant, including on-site supervision of works and approval of contract deliveries. Two safeguards specialists will be located at INAE. Considering the lack of capacity and need to at both AFAP and INAE, a Project Management Support Consultant (PMSC) firm, including a road engineer, an environment safeguards specialist and a social development specialist will be hired to fill this capacity gap. The PMSC, the project supervision consultants, will fill the capacity gap at both INAE and AFAP and will provide an opportunity to build local capacity by learning on the job over the project implementation period (five years). B. Results Monitoring and Evaluation Arrangements 33. The project will use the World Bank-financed M&E arrangements. AFAP, through collaboration with INAE, will be responsible for collecting data, monitoring and reporting the project result indicators presented in Section VI. The project M&E officer will effectively, on behalf of AFAP and INAE, monitor projects and prepare reports in a timely manner and will be supported by the project supervision consultant to monitor progress of project implementation towards the achievement of the project results. 34. The results framework, in Section VI, identifies results indicators for the entire project as well as for each of its components. The project implementing entities, AFAP and INAE, through the project M&E officer, will be responsible for collecting and verifying data and will consolidate the information and submit progress reports to the World Bank at a minimum on an annual basis for all indicators. Additional reporting will be provided as needed for supervision purposes. 35. To ensure smooth and regular collection of information, AFAP and INAE will rely on counterparts from the technical Working Group to support data collection and provide necessary inputs. AFAP and INAE will have overall responsibility for reporting to the Government, specifically, AFAP to the Ministry in charge of finance and INAE to the MOPIRNA. AFAP, in collaboration with INAE, will put together a M&E report on a semiannual basis that will include the updated results framework and an action table, listing any corrective actions to be implemented with deadlines and persons responsible clearly identified. Page 19 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) 36. INAE, through the M&E Officer, will also monitor beneficiary feedback through the project’s grievance redress mechanism (GRM), which will uptake information requests and queries. The assistance will be provided to beneficiaries/project affected peoples as well as to the public through focal points in local administrations. 37. A mid-term review of the project will take place in September 2021. Its principal objectives will be to: (i) review progress in project implementation; (ii) review the project’s results framework and make necessary adjustments; and (iii) review overall progress with the development of the road sector institutional capacity strengthening activities supported under Component 1 and determine if further assistance is required to implement the recommendations of the studies, in which case it will also determine sources of financing to support the next steps. For each of these objectives, AFAP, through the M&E officer, will prepare reports as appropriate to guide discussions during the mid-term review. C. Sustainability 38. Sustainability beyond the project’s implementation period will largely depend on the continued availability of resources and the commitment of GoSTP to effectively use the resources allocated for the road and environment sectors. Efforts in this area will include institutional assessment and changes, efficiency improvements in coastal zones and road network management. Climate change resilience measures will be incorporated in the detailed engineering design. The project will also support the National Federation of Road Maintenance Associations, FENAME using result-based approach. The STP FRN established in 2005, is supposed to cover all routine maintenance cost (US$1.3 million/year) but has currently difficulties in mobilizing revenues (Fuel levy, vehicle license fee and a levy on vehicle insurance). Currently only the proceeds of vehicle license fees (US$0.25 million/year) are mobilized and channeled directly to the Road Fund. The project will provide support to GIMEs with the aim of helping them improve their capacity and enhance their employment opportunities. As a first step, the project will estimate road maintenance needs, the financing gap and the level of road user charges (fuel levy, vehicle license fee and levy on vehicle insurance) that are required to fill the financing gap. Revision of the current road fund legislation to sustain the financing mechanism for road maintenance interventions will be considered in the series of Development Project Operations of FY20. IV. PROJECT APPRAISAL SUMMARY A. Technical, Economic and Financial Analysis 39. The main project component consists of the rehabilitation of the National Road EN1 from São Tomé – Guadalupe 13.3 km). The project will also strengthen the technical and management capacity of INAE, FRN/DTT and the GIMEs. Component 1: Road Sector Institutional Strengthening (a) Support to INAE to strengthen its road asset management system 40. This project will support INAE to strengthen its road asset management. Road condition inventory and traffic surveys are currently conducted using visual and manual counts and the road database is rudimentary and outdated. There is a need to equip INAE with appropriate tools to improve road condition inventory and traffic Page 20 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) surveys (i.e. automatic traffic counters). There is also a need to integrate the findings of the climate resilience/adaptation action plan of the road network in the Geographic Information System of the road data base to facilitate planning and monitoring of road interventions. This component will also provide additional support to build and strengthen the INAE staff capacity in fiduciary and social/environment safeguards. (b) Enhancing the Climate Resilience of the STP road network 41. The STP road network faces a range of vulnerability issues, in particular: (i) coastal exposure to sea-level rise, storm surge, wave action during very high tides; (ii) inland flooding and landslips during extreme rainfall events; (iii) accelerated pavement deterioration due to extreme weather and rising water tables in some locations. The project will support the GoSTP plans to prepare a detailed assessment of vulnerabilities in road transport and develop a strategy for enhancing its climate resilience. The climate change and natural hazard vulnerability assessment and climate resilience/adaptation strategy for STP’s entire road network (approximately about 1,300km) will include the two main following activities: (a) Preparation of a climate change and natural hazard vulnerability assessment for road network: (i) identify priority geographical areas that are vulnerable to existing and future disaster risks, (ii) assess the likely severity and frequency of risk impacts for all major links of the road network. (b) Climate resilience/adaptation strategy for STP’s entire road network: Based on the vulnerability analysis, preparation of a Road Network Adaptation Strategy that will: (i) outline a general climate change adaptation policy framework and objectives for the roads sector; (ii) recommend a program of maintenance and priority investments as well as other interventions at specific risk locations; and (iii) propose specific policy reforms required to provide a foundation for climate change adaptation and to address natural hazard vulnerability in the roads sector. 42. Identification of affordable coastal protection interventions and preparation of a design manual. Traditional responses to coastal erosion include rock or concrete revetments and seawalls. These structures are typically engineered to withstand scour, wave impact and overtopping and formal design guidance is available. Major obstacles for the construction of coastal protection in STP include the lack of suitably experienced designers and contractors, construction plant, suitable local materials - especially sand and rock of sufficient size and quality, and the high cost of importing materials. A range of ‘non-engineered’ methods for coastal (land) protection have been trialed in different small island states with varying levels of success. These have included: gabion baskets, sandbags, grout-filled bags, concrete-filled pipes and other materials of opportunity. Major issues with these methods have included the use of local beach sand exacerbating coastal erosion, undermining of walls, damage of the backshore due to overtopping of walls and loss of material from within the wall. Many of these issues can be addressed by modifying the design or materials. The project will support GoSTP to identify cost effective coastal protection approaches and develop design manuals to facilitate their implementation. This activity will be carried out in two phases: (i) The first phase will be a desktop review to identify and critically evaluate existing approaches to shoreline protection used in STP based on technical, social and environmental criteria. A feasibility of the selected approaches will be carried out based on design wave height, material Page 21 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) costs and availability, transport costs and design life. This is to provide annualized costs for different locations and wave climate regimes. (ii) The second phase of this study is the development of a design manual to allow application of the selected approaches. (c) Support to piloting of climate resilient road maintenance and costal protection interventions 43. Current road maintenance and coastal protection interventions use business as usual technics, which require material to be imported, are not always the most ecological appropriate, with potentially limited life expectancy requiring regular interventions, especially as they don’t properly the exposure and intensity of current and future hazards. The project will pilot interventions which have proven to be efficient in other countries facing similar conditions, using, as much as possible, local and sustainable materials, local workers. As the GIME will be trained to use those technics, they will be able to replicate those approaches in other sites, making road maintenance more resilient, less expensive and more sustainable. Component 2: Rehabilitation of EN1 – STP – Guadalupe (13.3 km) 44. The cross section of the National Road EN1 is generally characterized by a platform with a total width of about 5.00 meters, consisting of two traffic lanes. There are cobblestone shoulders or cobblestone ditches but with no suitable profile for urban areas. There are sidewalks interspersed with shoulders or diches but in a disordered and irregular form. There is no footpath within the localities in an organized and continuous way, which forces pedestrians to walk on the roadway. The road is in a high degree of deterioration. The pavement is worn out, the surface course does not provide the necessary adhesion conditions. The surface of the pavement is very irregular and with several patched holes and the surface course in non-existent in certain areas. There is also evidence of depressions in the pavement caused either by the collapse of aqueduct structures or by the erosion of the road pavement structure and consequent entrainment of fine particles. 45. The drainage system is based on a superficial drainage of the waters, with ditches along the road that discharge in the existing water streams. The whole drainage system is functioning poorly, or not functioning at all, due to the poor conditions of its drainage organs, deterioration of the ditches and the aqueducts or their obstruction. The water streams present a state of silting or an extremely high density of vegetation, which prevents the free flow of water. 46. The road is characterized by a succession of curves and counter curves, interspersed with small horizontal tangents, associated with a vertical alignment with sudden variations in the slope of the grades. This gives origin to many sag and crest curves and create a major difficulty in the interpretation of the route development and the ability to make decisions on time and maintain a constant velocity within the required safety criteria. There is practically no horizontal or vertical signalization. Vertical signalization does not meet standard requirements and is poorly maintained. 47. The average annual daily traffic (AADT) is around 3,700 vehicles/day between São Tomé and Guadalupe with a high presence of motorcycles around the urban/town areas. The last section (around 12 km) between Guadalupe and Neves has a long portion of coastal road bordering a non-stabilized high slope on the left and the sea on the right with occasional sea walls protection. The AADT on this section is much lower (300 vehicles/day). Page 22 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) Alternative design analysis. 48. Three alternative road design standards were considered. (i) Alternative 1: Alternative design with a significant correction of the layout, transversal profile urban type in all the localities, pavement structure with two granular layers and two bituminous, slope geometry with a 60º cutting angle, replacement of the bridges and hydraulic crossings, pedestrian circulation zones and parking areas everywhere, rehabilitation of all existing drainage system and building of some new ones, with reprofiling of waterlines; (ii) Alternative 2: with pavement rehabilitation and slight correction of the layout, transversal profile urban type in all localities with pedestrian circulation zones and parking areas, pavement structure with one granular layer and two bituminous, slope geometry with an 80º cutting angle, rehabilitation of the bridges and hydraulic crossings; and (iii) Alternative 3: with pavement rehabilitation and no correction of the layout, transversal profile urban type only in the most densely populated area, pavement structure with one granular layer and two bituminous, slope geometry with an 80º cutting angle, without treatment or additional protection, rehabilitation of the bridges and replacement of the hydraulic crossings. Alternatives 2 and 3 consider the widening of the road width to 6.00 meters in most of its extension, while Alternative 1 considers a widening of the average width of the road to 6.50-7.00 meters. Alternative 2 and 3 maintain the longitudinal profile in the current road, while Alternative 1 also improves its aspect. All these rehabilitation alternatives include a pavement type “Asphaltic Mix on Granular Base”. Table 2: Analysis of alternatives for EN1 Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3 Carriageway 7.00m 6.00m 6.00m Rigid curb on both sides 2x0.50m 2x0.50m 2x0.50m concrete v-ditch (when 2x1.00m 2x1.00m 2x1.00m needed) or unpaved berm - Altimetry and planimetry 80% 30% 0% realignment Pavement structure Wear layer – 5 cm; Binder Wear layer – 5 cm; Binder Wear layer – 5 cm; Binder layer – 7 cm; Base - 25cm; layer – 7 cm; Base - 25cm; layer – 7 cm; Base - 25cm; Sub-base - 25cm Sub-base - 25cm Sub-base - 25cm Pavement works execution of base and sub- execution of base and sub- execution of base and sub- base layers in aggregate base layers in aggregate base layers in aggregate material, binder and wear material, binder and wear material, binder and wear layer in bituminous layer in bituminous layer in bituminous macadam macadam macadam 49. Alternative 2 proved to be more feasible and cost effective. The road will follow the existing alignment for most of the itinerary. Minor realignment will be required to improve visibility around the road curvatures and bend to improve road safety. Civil works of the project consist mostly of rehabilitation works to bring the road sections and structures to the required STP design standards to meet the projected transport demand. Under the project no capacity expansion is envisaged, and road rehabilitation will mostly be executed within the existing horizontal alignment with enhancements wherever possible, including bridge and culvert upgraded or repairs where appropriate. Such improvements are classified as capital repairs (i.e. replace asphalt and underlying aggregate, re- work and compact earthworks) and include rehabilitation of the carriageway with the provision of shoulders/footpaths, improvements to drainage, minor improvements to alignment, and 5 cm asphaltic concrete (AC) surfacing. The geometric and pavement design proposed are appropriate for existing and projected traffic levels. The design life will assume periodic maintenance around seven years. Road Safety Audits will be embedded Page 23 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) in the engineering detailed designs as well as fiber optic ducting. The road sections will be designed to a standard of 6.0 meters carriageway plus 0.5 by 0.5-meter shoulders and 1.0-meter sidewalks on each side of the road. Generally, the works pose little or no significant technical issues. However, close monitoring of the construction quality by the Supervision Consultant and proactive schedule control from INAE, will be a key factor for successful implementation. Economic Analysis 50. Project Traffic. Traffic surveys were conducted during one week in May 2018 in three traffic survey stations (AADT 2018). The AADT varies significantly across the three survey stations. The daily traffic was around 6,970 vehicles/day, close to São Tomé, around 3,000 vehicles/day close to Guadalupe and around 1,000 vehicles/days around Neves. Heavy vehicles and buses represent around 10 percent of the total traffic. These traffic volumes do not include motorcycles. Motorcycle traffic is around 3,230 motorcycles/day close to São Tomé, 1,450 by Guadeloupe and 490 by Neves. 51. Traffic growth rate along the São Tomé – Guadalupe section has progressed between 2009 and 2016 at the same rate as the population growth rate (2.8 percent). The World Bank estimates that STP’s GDP per capita will grow at around 3.6 percent per year from 2017 to 2022. The traffic forecast used for the road design and economic analysis are presented in the Table below. Table 3: Estimated Annual Traffic Growth Traffic Annual Traffic (AADT) By end period Period Growth (%) considered for section 1 Base year 6,942 2018-2022 4.10% 8,172 2023-2027 3.80% 9,863 2028-2035 3.00% 12,568 2036-2038 2.50% 13,582 52. An economic evaluation of the three design alternatives was carried out and the results show that alternative 2 yields a highest Net Present Value (NPV) (Table 4). Table 4: NPV of each road design alternative for section 1 Design Alternative NPV (in US$ million) Alternative 1 1.00 Alternative 2 1.75 Alternative 3 1.44 53. The estimated financial investment cost of Alternative 2 is US$21.0 million, including taxes and contingencies. Economic investment costs, net of taxes and price contingencies, were estimated at 80 percent of the financial costs. The construction period is 4.5 years, and the road is expected to be opened to traffic in 2024. The economic Page 24 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) analysis was done using the Highway Development and Management Model (HDM-4). The 13.3 km road section yields an Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) of 11.3 percent and a NPV of US$1.75 million, at a discount rate of 10 percent. 54. Traffic demand on STP roads is not high enough to attract private investment to finance the rehabilitation or the improvement of the resilience of the roads. Therefore, road rehabilitation and improvement need to be financed by public investments. Without the project, part of the population will be kept out of job opportunities, public assets will keep deteriorating and safety of road users will worsen. 55. By improving the traffic conditions, the GHG emissions per car and kilometer will decrease. With a shadow price of carbon around US$40 per ton of CO2, the reduction of CO2 emission contributes to a NPV of US$90,000, already included in the total NPV. 56. A sensitivity analysis was carried out to assess the robustness of the economic evaluation results of the project to possible variations in key project parameters, which in this case were identified as project costs and benefits. A worst-case scenario with project costs increased by 10 percent will lead to a positive NPV of US$0.25 million. In case of 10 percent decrease in the project benefits, the NPV would still be positive at US$0.08 million. The economic analysis sensitivity results are presented in Table 5. Table 5: NPV Sensitivity Analysis (US$ million) Base Case 1.75 Project Costs + 10% 0.25 Project Benefits - 10% 0.08 B. Fiduciary (i) Financial Management 57. A Financial Management (FM) Assessment was undertaken to evaluate the adequacy of the project financial management arrangements. The Assessment was carried out in accordance with the Policy and Directive for IPF and the World Bank Guidance on FM in World Bank IPF Operations issued on February 28, 2017. The overall FM was assessed to be adequate, and the risk rating was assessed as Moderate. Some mitigation measures are proposed accordingly. 58. AFAP established under the Ministry of Planning, Finance and Blue Economy, will have overall fiduciary responsibility for implementation of this proposed project. AFAP established to handle the fiduciary matters of the Social Sector Support Project (P075979) in 2003, has a track record in the implementation of the World Bank- financed education, power sector, telecommunications, and social protection, and institutional capacity building projects. The recent review of AFAP’s FM arrangements concluded that it continues to maintain acceptable FM arrangements for the implementation of the ongoing projects. AFAP’s financial manager reporting to its general director will have overall responsibility for project FM matters. The project funds, expenditures, and resources will be accounted for using the existing automated accounting software and the basis of accounting will be cash basis. Disbursement of IDA will be done on transactions basis (statement of expenditures [SoEs]). The proposed project will make use of the following disbursement methods: advance, direct payment, reimbursement and special Page 25 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) commitment. AFAP will prepare bi-annual unaudited interim financial reports (IFRs) and provide such reports to the World Bank within 45 days of the end of each calendar semester. The project financial statements will be audited by the independent auditor in accordance with International Standards on Auditing (ISA) as issued by the International Auditing and Assurance Standards Board (IAASB) within IFAC. (ii) Procurement 59. Procurement procedures. Procurement under the project will be carried out in accordance with the World Bank’s “Procurement Regulations for IPF Borrowers” (Procurement Regulations) dated July 2016 and revised in November 2017 and August 2018 under the New Procurement Framework (NPF), and the “Guidelines on Preventing and Combating Fraud and Corruption in Projects Financed by IBRD Loans and IDA Credits and Grants”, dated July 1, 2016, and other provisions stipulated in the Financing Agreement. 60. Procurement arrangements. INAE will have the overall technical responsibility over project activities, while AFAP (Fiduciary Agency for Project Management) will have the fiduciary responsibility of the project, including the procurement function. 61. Project Procurement Strategy for Development (PPSD) Summary. The Borrower prepared the PPSD. Works for the rehabilitation of the National Road EN1 from São Tomé to Guadalupe will be procured through international competitive bidding. Equipment for INAE (vehicle, IT, furniture) will be procured through the request for quotations method. Consulting services for the supervision of the road rehabilitation, for the update of the road database/GIS and for the Road Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Climate Proofing Manual will be procured through the quality and cost-based selection method. Individual consultant selection method will be used for the recruitment of the M&E officer, for the road safety strategy and institutional support for the FRN. 62. Procurement capacity. Procurement activities will be carried out by AFAP, which has been handling fiduciary matters of World Bank-funded project since its establishment in 2003, which includes social sector, education and telecommunication projects. Currently, it is supporting the implementation of Quality Education for All Project (146877), Power Sector Recovery Project (P157096), and the Institutional Capacity Building Project (P162129). AFAP has therefore adequate capacity to handle procurement activities under this project. Considering that AFAP is expected to implement additional projects in the future, it will need to reinforce its capacity to provide adequate support to all projects by recruiting additional staff. The procurement specialist of the Climate Change Project joined AFAP starting January 1, 2019. AFAP will have to reinforce its capacity on procurement processes and contract management of large civil works contracts, through training of AFAP staff and/or recruitment of a part- time consultant. Specific procedures and requirements for the project will be detailed in the Project Operations Manual of the project, which will be prepared and adopted by project effectiveness. 63. The procurement risk associated with the project in view of the risks identified, including the complexity of large works contracts and the multiplicity of projects handled by AFAP is Substantial. To mitigate procurement risks, Terms of Reference and technical specifications will be discussed and agreed between AFAP and the Association before procurement of any goods and services. Consultants’ contracts and goods specifications will be discussed with the World Bank before they can be signed, for both prior and post review activities. Page 26 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) C. Safeguards 64. The proposed project activities are not expected to have significant adverse or irreversible environmental and social impacts, but rather moderate and easy to mitigate. Therefore, for Environmental Assessment (EA) purposes, the project was categorized category ‘B’ -partial assessment. The following environmental safeguards policies are triggered: OP/BP 4.01 (Environmental Assessment), OP/BP 4.04 (Natural Habitats) and OP/BP 4.11 (Physical Cultural Resources). OP/BP 4.11 is triggered because the civil works that will be carried out under this project will involve excavations; earth movements and land clearing that could inadvertently affect places or objects of significant archeological or cultural value that should be protected. OP 4.12 (Involuntary Resettlement) is also triggered as EN1 road rehabilitation and construction works will lead to the economic displacement of some people working along the EN1 road. During project preparation, as most project intervention sites were not yet determined, the Borrower prepared an Environmental and Social Management Framework (ESMF) and a Resettlement Policy Framework (RPF) to cover all potential project areas/activities. These safeguards instruments have been consulted upon, approved, disclosed in-country, and disclosed on the World Bank’s website on January 24, 2019 prior to appraisal. An Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) has also been developed to assess the potential impacts related to the already identified project’s investment, i.e. the rehabilitation of the National Road EN1. The ESIA has been consulted, approved and disclosed in-country on December 20, 2018 and at the World Bank on December 27, 2018. A Resettlement Action Plan (RAP) has been developed and publicly consulted on January 18, 2019 to propose measures to support the project-affected people (PAP) who will be economically displaced due to the EN1 road rehabilitation. The RAP has been disclosed in country and at the World Bank’s website on February 21, 2019. To ensure that all impacts on physical cultural resources are managed appropriately, a “chance finds procedures” has been prepared and included in the ESMF and ESIA. Road construction activities may also lead to vegetation loss, fauna and biodiversity disturbance, although the project will not involve logging or large-scale forest clearing that could significantly affect Natural Habitats or Forests. Notwithstanding, OP 4.04 is triggered and the ESMF includes specific guidance and procedures to address OP 4.04 basic requirements. The ESMF and RPF will be used to set forth guidance for subsequent ESIA/ESMP/RAP preparation, safeguards capacity building needs, including implementation arrangements and associated costs. (i) Environmental Safeguards 65. Under Component 2, the site and activities for the rehabilitation of EN1 between São Tomé and Guadalupe are clearly identified. The rehabilitation and upgrade of the existing National Road EN1 from Sao Tome to Guadalupe (13.3 km) will include the upgrade of sidewalks to improve the safety of pedestrians; the improvement of the drainage system to reduce the exposure of the road to the risks of flooding; the upgrade of the bridges along the E1 to reflect the possible changes in river discharges due to climate change; and the stabilization of the slopes along the road. The ESIA identified foreseen negative impacts in the following areas: (1) impacts on the environment due to regular or accidental emissions (dust, exhaust fumes, noise, vibration, oil or chemicals spill); (2) risks associated with use (accidents, inadvertent damage to property); (3) nuisances for the local population (dust, exhaust, noise, vibration); and (4) vegetation clearance. The foreseen negative impacts are well documented and adequate mitigation measures are proposed in the ESIA with an implementation timeline and cost estimates. 66. The Borrower ensured that public consultations were adequately conducted in the impact assessment process and provided relevant material in a form and languages that are understandable and accessible to the groups that were consulted. The Borrower has committed to continue to improve its performance in terms of public consultations throughout the life of the project. Page 27 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) 67. Based on an evaluation of institutional capacity in terms of environmental and social safeguards preparation and implementation, the World Bank will require INAE to recruit an environmental safeguards expert and a social development and safeguards expert to closely support to implementation of safeguards requirements for the project. This recommendation is aligned with the findings of the ESMF. The World Bank further recommends that for the sustainability of capacity building efforts, these safeguards experts be an integral part of the INAE team. INAE routinely conducts supervision missions in tandem with DGA the national environmental assessment agency and lodging these safeguards experts at INAE will (i) help build capacity in both institutions, and at the national level, in a more sustainable way and (ii) capitalize on existing collaborative efforts between the two institutions. 68. The Environmental Risk Rating is Substantial. (ii) Social Safeguards 69. No temporary or permanent land acquisition is expected under the project. All road-maintenance works will be undertaken within the existing road, which will not be fully closed during works as this is the only road connecting São Tomé to Neves. Road maintenance will therefore be performed by reducing lanes and slowing traffic in the sections under rehabilitation. The total traffic flow in areas under maintenance is not expected to change during project works. 70. OP 4.12 on Involuntary Resettlement is triggered because the rehabilitation of national road EN1 from São Tomé to Guadalupe (Component 2) may lead to economic impacts. A RPF was prepared for the initial design project, which included coastal protection activities and the rehabilitation of six km of marginal road. This former component has since been dropped. However, an updated RPF will continue to form part of project documentation and will be used to prepare RAPs if additional road-maintenance works are sought through additional finance and for the contingency emergency response component. The RPF was consulted on June 22, 2018 and revised and approved. It was publicly disclosed on the World Bank and the Borrower’s websites on January 24, 2019. 71. A detailed RAP was developed for the 63-identified PAP located along the EN1 road sections in São Tomé and Neves. Three main groups of PAPs have been identified: (i) 12 informal and 3 formal sellers working on an intersection of the São Tomé EN1 road; (ii) 32 informal sellers stationed along the EN1 road in Neves; and (iii) 16 informal sellers working in the Neves local market. PAP under group 1 and 2 may be temporarily economically impacted during rehabilitation works. As the Neves road section pose significant safety and health hazards to the current informal sellers, the RAP, in agreement with local authorities, proposes to permanently move them to the Neves market. The 16 additional informal sellers in Neves market may thus be also impacted as their incomes might be affected by the arrival of the 32 Neves informal sellers. The 15 PAPs identified in STP will also have to permanently move to a safer location, which has already been identified and agreed with the PAPs. Both selected locations are very close to PAPs’ original selling points and this will help minimize any potential economic impacts. As part of the resettlement measures, PAP will be provided with an upgraded stall made of more durable material and design. They will also receive assistance during relocation and ad hoc training to improve their business skills and management. The resettlement-related impacts and mitigation measures that are included in the RAP were consulted during PAP consultation and during public consultations held on January 18, 2019. The RAP has been approved and disclosed in country and on the World Bank’s website on February 21, 2019. Page 28 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) 72. As documented in the RAP, INAE will closely monitor the income and living conditions of the PAPs to ensure that, at a minimum, those individuals maintain their level of income and living conditions. In the unlikely event that a loss of income or living conditions is not identified by INAE during their monitoring of the project area, PAPs will be able to submit a loss of income/livelihood complaint to the project’s GRM. The GRM will respond to the grievance in a maximum of ten working days and will resolve the complaint in a maximum of thirty calendar days. Assistance in the form of cash indemnity for lost income, as well as new stalls, may be provided as restitution for lost income. 73. Due to the road configuration and the selected rehabilitation approach, which will rehabilitate just one side of the road and only approximately 200 meters at a time, informal sellers stationed along the Guadalupe road won’t be impacted during works. Their stall can be temporarily moved from one side of the road to the other during constructions. If that is not possible, stalls can also be temporarily moved further down the road, but close enough to maintain their consumer-base. The stalls are small wooden structures that are easily transported and temporarily moving them to an area that is close to their original location is likely to be a sufficient mitigation measure to ensure that their income is not reduced. It may even be possible that their income will temporarily rise due to the increased presence of road-maintenance workers during road-rehabilitation. 74. Road maintenance works are not expected to affect store-fronts, which will not have to close during road rehabilitation works. As part of its supervision activities, INAE will closely monitor that access to storefronts and homes along the road are not disturbed. Store-owners and people who live in houses along the road will be able to notify INAE of unexpected restrictions of access to their homes and stores via the project’s GRM. 75. The project will not require a large influx of labor. On the contrary, only a small number of high-skilled workers are expected to travel to STP, mainly with the objective of guiding the operation of the equipment that will be used for road maintenance, which will be imported (rented) from abroad. Road maintenance works will be undertaken by GIMEs. GIMEs are mixed gender, local road-maintenance organizations that employ local community members. The likelihood of GBV, as well as other forms of violence occurring because of local workers, is low. Additional GBV prevention measures have been put in place. A mapping of local organizations working on GBV have been conducted to identify potential local support and service provisions for GBV survivors. In-depth consultations have been held among these organizations to analyze the current GBV situation, ongoing activities and inform them about the project. Constructions workers will be required to sign codes of conduct prohibiting inappropriate behaviors and setting ethical expectations. Ad-hoc training on GBV will be broadly conducted to sensitize local population along the project implementation area 76. The Social Risk Rating is Substantial. Resettlement in STP has yet to be undertaken following World Bank OP 4.12 requirements which increases the risk of policy non-compliance. To manage those risks, INAE and AFAP will receive ongoing capacity building and support from the World Bank, and local and/or international consultants will be hired to support the implementation of social safeguards. Specifically, a social development and safeguards specialist and an environmental safeguards specialist will be hired and located at INAE to provide ad hoc technical and advisory assistance. (iii) Gender 77. Gender equality is emphasized in the national Constitution and reiterated across the various laws and legislation, but inequality persists. STP is a signatory of all international conventions that promote gender equality Page 29 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) and combat discrimination such as Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women (CEDAW) and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, in practice, the outcome of such policies and laws are mixed. Gaps in access to education and health have been reduced and several women occupy high decision-making positions at the national level. While the difference in poverty levels between female and male headed households is small, the average income for female-headed households is lower than that of male-headed households. Also, women’s participation in decision making at the local levels is marginal. Moreover, there is increasing evidence to indicate that domestic violence rates against women and children are high. Cultural attitudes seem to relegate women to more traditional roles, such as household and child care; while confining their access to economic opportunities primarily to (self) employment in the informal sector. In 2007, the Government developed and adopted the National Strategy for Gender Equality and Equity in STP (Estratégia Nacional de Igualdade e Equidade de Género- ENIEG) and created the National Institute for the Promotion of Gender Equality and Equity (Instituto Nacional para Promoção e Equidade do Género, INPG). Several important actions are part of the implementation of ENIEG including the creation of the Domestic Violence Counseling Center (Centro de Aconselhamento Contra Violência Domestica - CACVD) and the elaboration of the Strategy to Combat GBV. 78. Women are targeted beneficiaries of the project and will benefit from activities centered around improvements in mobility and livelihoods. The safe and secure mobility of women will be emphasized through specific interventions like improved lighting. Improvements in the quality and accessibility of roads will raise agricultural productivity and facilitate marketing activities for women who derive a significant share of their income from the agricultural sector. Women will benefit from additional employment opportunities created through their participation in the project’s proposed community-based road maintenance activities. (Box 3 - summarizes the proposed gender activities and benefits of the project). Box 3: How investments in transport infrastructure will benefit women in STP In STP, women play an important economic and social role in fishing and rural communities . Fishing is characterized mainly by subsistence fishing using small-scale and semi-industrial methods and accounts for 4 percent of GDP. The men do the fishing itself, but it is women, known as “ palaiês” who sell the catch. Selling fish involves a range of activities related to preservation, namely salting and smoking, both of which are also largely carried out by women and plays an important role in providing inputs and generating employment and income for communities and has great potential for the development of the country. Women are nonetheless less likely to be employed than men, particularly in rural areas where gender gaps in economic activity tend to be higher than in urban areas. Although women benefited from the Land Reforms in 1992, through which a third of the country’s small farmers acquired deeds to their land, their access to productive resources remains limited. Even among female land owners, poverty and limited access to credit constrain their ability to purchase inputs and to fully utilize their land. While there are some informal credit schemes, especially among the fishing communities, women have little knowledge and experience with formal credit schemes. Women are economically active in various sectors but do not have the same access as men to the means of production and the financial resources needed for their activities The poor quality of road infrastructure and mobility constraints have been identified to have an impact on women’s ability to travel and consequences for their livelihoods and access to opportunities. The proposed activities under the project will foster the following three outcomes to benefit women specifically: • Better access to productive resources, economic opportunities and markets through improved road access. The rehabilitation of National Road EN1 under Component 2 will improve connectivity and mobility with an impact on women’s access to markets, inputs and economic opportunities. It will also support the efficiency of the Page 30 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) agricultural and fishing sector as improving road access can provide the opportunity for easier transport of fish and agricultural products while supporting the development of these sectors with potential for creating more employment and increasing family incomes. Positive impact is expected on the livelihoods of women who represent 12 percent of the total workforce in agriculture. • Improved and safer mobility through restored pedestrian infrastructure and road safety interventions . Footpaths and sidewalks across the road network in Sao Tome are a main way in which most rural people, and particularly women since they are more likely to walk, start their journeys to connect to the road network, transport services and towns. The mobility challenges and the isolation of women can be exacerbated by poor footpath condition and/or the lack of adequate and secure infrastructure along the network. Under Component 2, and Sub- component 1.6 focused on small scale road safety interventions to improve road safety, the project will finance road improvements that will impact women’s ability to use footpaths that are usually used to collect wood, water and reach services. The installation of lights, restoration of and creation of safe pedestrian crossings will also facilitate women’s mobility while ensuring their security and safety. Other physical infrastructure interventions will be determined through consultations with women during the planning of the interventions. • Empowerment and improvements in women’s lives and livelihoods by creating economic opportunities through routine roadside maintenance activities. Under Sub-component 1.1., the project will seek to increase the participation of women in road maintenance activities. Involving women in the roads maintenance intervention groups (GIMES) will provide access to income earning opportunities and raise their participation in local decision- making bodies. Specific capacity building and training activities will be organized to promote women's professional development. Training envisaged will focus on road maintenance skills as well as leadership and management competencies, including financial literacy. The participation of women will be strongly encouraged and monitored among the community workers who may be recruited to work under contractors for the project, and contractors will be asked to regularly report on the number of women they employ and the hours they work. The results’ framework for the project includes three indicators to measure the impact of the specific interventions which will particularly benefit women under the project: (1) share of women among the members of GIMEs being trained; and (2) percentage of road accident black spots where interventions are done (3) and length of footpaths built. 79. Gender gaps in economic activity tend to be higher in rural areas than in urban areas, with women less likely to be employed than men. Under Sub-component 1.1., the project will seek to increase the participation of women in road maintenance activities. Specific capacity building and training activities will be organized to promote women's professional development and access to new opportunities. Capacity constraints and training needs of women will be examined through the participatory approach of the roads maintenance intervention groups (GIMES). Training envisaged will focus on road maintenance skills, time management and includes training on gender awareness and code of conducts as well as HIV/AIDS prevention. 80. Gender-based violence (GBV) remains a challenge and the project will seek to prevent, mitigate and address any GBV or Sexual Exploitation and Abuse (SEA) risks. The GBV risks are anticipated to be low based on the World Bank’s ‘GBV Risk Assessment Tool’. However, measures and actions will be taken during project preparation and through implementation to address GBV risks based on the Good Practice Note For Addressing Gender Based Violence in IPF involving Major Civil Works (June 2018) and will include: (i) identifying and mapping GBV prevention and response actors; (ii) raising awareness on GBV and SEA risks among communities in the project area(s) and among GIMEs; (iii) preventing and responding to SEA risks through the provision of services ranging from SEA prevention to provision of services for survivor with support from a specialized non-governmental organization (NGO) to ensure the holistic care of survivors and / or their referral to structures responsible for the provision of psychosocial, health, and legal services in coordination with the existing national response; and (iv) the setting up of an Accountability and Response Framework that will identify responsibilities for handling of GBV allegations and Page 31 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) establish a GRM designed specifically for reporting SEA incidents and to respect confidentiality. Annex 3 provides details of the project’s approach. (iv) Grievance Redress Mechanisms 81. A project-level GRM has been designed and will be operational within three months after project effectiveness and throughout the project implementation. INAE, with the support of local institutions and community members recognized for their leadership, will be responsible for updating, logging, and addressing grievances and information requests. The GRM will have multiple uptake channels, including physical mailboxes, dedicated phone number, and an email address. All submissions will receive a response within ten business days and will be addressed within thirty working days. The GRM includes specific provisions to address grievances pertaining to GBV, including options for submitting grievances anonymously. 82. Information on the Grievance Redress Service (GRS). Communities and individuals who believe that they are adversely affected by a World Bank (WB) supported project may submit complaints to existing project-level grievance redress mechanisms or the WB’s Grievance Redress Service (GRS). The GRS ensures that complaints received are promptly reviewed to address project-related concerns. Project affected communities and individuals may submit their complaint to the WB’s independent Inspection Panel which determines whether harm occurred, or could occur, as a result of WB non-compliance with its policies and procedures. Complaints may be submitted at any time after concerns have been brought directly to the World Bank's attention, and Bank Management has been given an opportunity to respond. For information on how to submit complaints to the World Bank’s corporate GRS, please visit http://www.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/products-and-services/grievance-redress- service. For information on how to submit complaints to the World Bank Inspection Panel, please visit www.inspectionpanel.org. 83. Citizen Engagement. The project will support the beneficiaries’ participation and feedback during project preparation and implementation and will implement specific measures to secure citizen engagement. The integration of sustainable citizen engagement processes will include communication and outreach, participatory planning, community monitoring, as well as consultations with direct beneficiaries. The project would support capacity building targeting community monitoring actors including local NGOs, community focal points, the project implementation unit, as well as elected officials. The outreach and consultations would provide space for the project to explain to the outer islands communities the project activities, related risks such as GBV, as well as the GRM available. The project will include indicators as part of the results framework including GRM resolution rates as an indicator (Grievances responded and/or resolved within the stipulated service standards %). 84. Climate Resilience. A screening of the proposed project for short- and long-term climate change and disaster risks was undertaken using the World Bank Climate and Disaster Risk Screening Tool. Like many Island Countries, STP transport sector is critically exposed to the effects of climate change with most of the country being at an elevation of less than 3 meter above sea level (Annex 2). These effects are likely to include higher extreme and average temperatures, sea-level rise, increased rainfall intensity and an increased intensity of wind from tropical cyclones. There is a clear need to adapt infrastructure to be more resilient to these effects, the proposed project components are designed based on climate resilient infrastructure works, policy support and capacity building. 85. Project Climate Co-Benefits: The project can potentially contribute towards the achievement of STP’s NDC by 2030. The total climate Co-Benefits in this project is estimated to amount to 96 percent. Component 1: Co-Benefits Page 32 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) can be assigned for (i) supporting climate resilient road maintenance and adaptation measures against climate change risks; (ii) for conducting a climate vulnerability assessment of the national road network; and (iii) for implementing innovative road maintenance and coastal road protection interventions. Component 2 has potential Adaptation Co-Benefits for the rehabilitation and improvement of the climate resilience of roads to reduce increased risks of flooding, river discharges and rain-induced slope movements, but also mitigation co-benefit measures by providing, safer sidewalks for pedestrians, incentives to change transport modes. Improving the road condition will also have positive impacts on GHG emissions. For the lifetime of the project, the total GHG net emission is projected to decrease by more than 5,840 teq. CO2 (representing 5 percent of the gross emissions from road users during the economic life of the project). The GHG emissions have been calculated using the HDM IV software, with the same parameters as for the economic analysis, which also included the shadow price of carbon. . V. KEY RISKS 86. The overall project implementation risk is rated as “substantial”. This is mainly due to the substantial risk associated with the political and governance, institutional capacity for project implementation, fiduciary and environmental and social. All other risks are rated either low or moderate due to the robust mitigation measures developed (i.e. Governance, Sustainability and Stakeholders). 87. Political and governance Risk rating is “substantial”. A new government was just elected in November 2018, but the project remains a key priority for the new government. There are several actors involved in the project, with different agendas and preoccupations and the cooperation in terms of project implementation between AFAP and INAE will be key. In order to ensure a good coordination, a steering committee will ensure an oversight of the project, to deal with risks of diverging visions. 88. Institutional capacity for implementation is rated “substantial”. This will be the first project financed by the World Bank in the transport sector and the project beneficiaries (INAE) are not familiar with World Bank operations. Furthermore, INAE and AFAP’s capacity to appropriately implement safeguards is low and requires substantial improvement. AFAP, has demonstrated during project preparation a lack of capacity to deliver in a timely and appropriate fashion including safeguards instruments. INAE, and AFAP will require substantial safeguards capacity improvement, particularly pertaining to managing resettlement-related impacts. To mitigate implementation capacity risks a project management support consultant, including a road engineer, an environment specialist and a social development specialist, will be hired. Project implementation will be led by AFAP for fiduciary activities and as the proposed project scope will mostly cover road rehabilitation and improvement, the INAE will be providing the technical leadership for project implementation. To mitigate risks of any coordination issues that may arise between AFAP and INAE, a M&E Officer will be hired by AFAP, who will report to both INAE’s CEO and AFAP’s General Director. 89. Fiduciary risk is rated “substantial”. The procurement risk associated with the project particularly due the complexity of large works contracts and the multiplicity of projects handled by AFAP is Substantial. To mitigate procurement risks, Terms of References and technical specifications will be discussed and agreed between AFAP and the World Bank before procurement of any goods and services. The PMSC will also provide support on procurement. Page 33 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) 90. The Environmental and Social Risk Rating is “substantial”. Regarding social risk: resettlement in STP has yet to be undertaken following World Bank OP 4.12 requirements which increases the risk of policy non-compliance. To manage those risks, INAE and AFAP will receive ongoing capacity building and support from the Task Team, and consultants will be hired to support the implementation of social safeguards. A social development specialist and an environmental safeguards specialist will be hired and housed at INAE. The PMSC will provide addition ad hoc technical and advisory assistance to this full-time specialist, including through on-the-job training. GBV risks associated with the project have been assessed as low, but an action plan to mitigate these have been developed anyway. . Page 34 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) VI. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND MONITORING Results Framework COUNTRY: Sao Tome and Principe Sao Tome e Principe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project Project Development Objectives(s) The proposed PDOs is to improve connectivity, sustainability, safety and climate resilience of selected roads. Project Development Objective Indicators RESULT_FRAME_T BL_ PD O Indicator Name DLI Baseline End Target Improve road connectivity Reduction in vehicle operating cost on the project road section 0.33 0.29 for cars per km (Amount(USD)) Vehicle operating cost on the project road section for trucks per 0.90 0.76 km (Amount(USD)) Average travel time to go from São Tome to Guadalupe by car 19.00 17.00 (Minutes) Improve road sustainability Road asset management system developed and implemented to No Yes inform the annual road maintenance program (Yes/No) Improve road safety on the project road section and on ST road network by reducing accident risks Percentage of road accident black spots corrected based on the number of small-scale road safety interventions on the road 0.00 50.00 network (Percentage) Page 35 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) RESULT_FRAME_T BL_ PD O Indicator Name DLI Baseline End Target Improve resilience of project roads to climate and disaster risk Length of roads made resilient to climate and disaster risk 0.00 13.30 (Kilometers) PDO Table SPACE Intermediate Results Indicators by Components RESULT_FRAME_T BL_ IO Indicator Name DLI Baseline End Target Component 1: Institutional strengthening Climate vulnerability assessment developed and used to inform No Yes maintenance and future investment strategies (Yes/No) Number of maintenance community groups trained to use innovative techniques (including using eco-system based appraoches) for road maintenance and stabilization and coastal 0.00 30.00 protection (Number) Percentage of women among the members of GIMEs being trained (including on time and project management) to 0.00 50.00 provide better job opportunities (Percentage) Updated road asset management system in place and No Yes implemented to prepare road maintenance programs (Yes/No) Adequate equipment used for traffic surveys and road asset inventory conditions (Yes/No) No Yes Road Safety Strategy prepared, and start of implementation of its No Yes action plan (Yes/No) Climate resilience design guidance manual prepared and piloted No Yes (Yes/No) Number of small scale interventions piloted to increase resilience 0.00 10.00 Page 36 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) RESULT_FRAME_T BL_ IO Indicator Name DLI Baseline End Target of the road network (Number) Component 2: Sao-Tome - Guadalupe road rehabilitation Roads rehablitated (CRI, Kilometers) 0.00 13.30 Roads rehabilitated - rural (CRI, Kilometers) 0.00 6.25 Roads rehabilitated - non-rural (CRI, Kilometers) 0.00 7.05 Length of road with drainage condition improved (with construction of new channel or new and upgraded drainage 0.00 13.30 outfall channels) (Kilometers) Grievances responded an/or resolved within the stipulated 0.00 100.00 service standards (Percentage) Total length of sidewalks built or rehabilitated (Kilometers) 0.00 14.40 IO Table SPACE UL Table SPACE Monitoring & Evaluation Plan: PDO Indicators Methodology for Data Responsibility for Data Indicator Name Definition/Description Frequency Datasource Collection Collection This indicator will estimate the average cost (fuel, time, Outputs of vehicle maintenance,...) for By HDM IV modelling, Reduction in vehicle operating cost on the annual models using INAE a driver in a car to go from using field data project road section for cars per km field data Sao Tome to Guadalupe or from Guadalupe to Sao Tome Vehicle operating cost on the project road This indicator will estimate Annual Outputs of HDM IV model using INAE section for trucks per km the average cost (fuel, time, models using field data Page 37 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) vehicle maintenance,...) for field data as a driver in a truck to go from inputs Sao Tome to Guadalupe or from Guadalupe to Sao Tome Measurements will be This indicator will measure done by timing the time the average time need by a Actual time of the drive, during Average travel time to go from São Tome annual INAE car driver to go from Sao from traffic different periods of the to Guadalupe by car Tome to Guadalupe or from day, with different Guadalupe to Sao Tome weather conditions. A proper road asset management system will be set up at INAE, to aggregate the results of the road condition surveys, to keep track of the past and verification of existence Road asset management system planned interventions, as progress and use of the road annual INAE developed and implemented to inform well as to help identify the report asset management the annual road maintenance program road maintenance activities, system and road upgrading interventions, integrating recommendations from the climate vulnerability assessment and the road safety strategy This indicator will measure Identification of Percentage of road accident black spots the number of sites Project numbers of sites corrected based on the number of small- annual INAE benefiting from report benefiting from road scale road safety interventions on the interventions to improve safety improvement road network the road safety, either Page 38 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) through small realignment, improvement of visibility (through vegetation management), lightning, signs, compared with the ones identify in the road safety analysis This indicator will measure how much of the road rehabilitated by the project Supervising consultant have been designed and supervision s will produce regular built using standards and every three consultant reports on the Length of roads made resilient to climate Supervision consultants methods to ensure their months progress conformity of the and disaster risk resilience, either through report construction done vs climate proof pavement, the proposed design improved drainage, protections from coastal risks or risk of landslides. ME PDO Table SPACE Monitoring & Evaluation Plan: Intermediate Results Indicators Methodology for Data Responsibility for Data Indicator Name Definition/Description Frequency Datasource Collection Collection The vulnerability of the whole national road Report of the validation Climate vulnerability assessment network to climate and workshop and developed and used to inform disaster risk will assessed, Annual CVA report INAE/DGA document published in maintenance and future investment producing maps of national website strategies vulnerability. This information will be considered in the road Page 39 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) maintenance database system, as well as will inform the future interventions (including upgrading and additional protection) on the roads. GIMEs will receive technical trainings on eco-system Number of maintenance community based approaches for Participant groups trained to use innovative coastal and slopes Record of people Annual lists from FENAME techniques (including using eco-system protections, as well as attending the training FENAME based appraoches) for road maintenance capacity building on more and stabilization and coastal protection resilient and eco-friendly solutions for road maintenance GIME members who will Percentage of women among the benefit from the training Participant Keeping records of members of GIMEs being trained should include women, so annual lists of number of women FENAME (including on time and project that the opportunities for training attending the trainings management) to provide better job professional growth is opportunities inclusive The current road management system, managed by INAE, will be Updated road asset management system assessed and improved, to annual INAE Report from INAE INAE in place and implemented to prepare road optimize the road maintenance programs maintenance strategy, including consideration of climate and disaster risks, and available financing. Adequate equipment used for traffic Equipment will be provided Annual Inventory of Annual inventory DTT surveys and road asset inventory to INAE to improve their equipment in Page 40 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) conditions road survey capacity, and DTT the IT system to set up the upgraded road management system. Road Safety Based on an initial Strategy and assessment of the road progress safety situation, a road report on its Tracking of the safety strategy will be Road Safety Strategy prepared, and start annual implementati progress of the action DTT developed, including an of implementation of its action plan on, part of plan actions plan with physical, the project regulatory and progress communication report interventions Following the climate vulnerability assessment, a guidance manual will be Climate prepared to describe the vulnerability most appropriate climate assessment resilience interventions, for documents Implementation reports climate and disaster risks and progress from GIME, part of the Climate resilience design guidance manual annual INAE/FENAME protection, but also road reports, on annual project progress prepared and piloted maintenance. These number of report technics will be presented interventions and taught to the GIME, and piloted by they will pilot them in real GIME conditions, in hot spots defined in the climate vulnerability assessment. Number of small scale interventions Based on the analysis of the INAE, annual INAE INAE piloted to increase resilience of the road road accident black spots, a progress network number of priority sites for reports Page 41 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) interventions will be identified, and interventions, including realignment, improvement of lighting, signs, will be performed. The indicator will count how many sites have been covered by those interventions. Report from measurement on the every 3 supervising ground of length of INAE Roads rehablitated months consultants works done supervision measurement on the every three consultants ground of length of supervision consultants Roads rehabilitated - rural months reports work built supervision measurement on the every three consultant ground of length of supervision consultants Roads rehabilitated - non-rural months report work done Road rehabilitation will include improvement of the drainage system. This Progress Length of road with drainage condition indicator will measure the every three report from measurement on the improved (with construction of new supervision consultants length of the road which will months supervision ground of work done channel or new and upgraded drainage benefit from improved consultants outfall channels) drainage conditions, either through new channels, larger ones, …) Grievances responded an/or resolved This indicator will monitor every four project tracking tool for GRM INAE within the stipulated service standards the efficiency of the GRM, months progress Page 42 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) with tracking of the number report of grievance responded in due time The length corresponds to progress the total length of footpaths every three reports of measurement on the Total length of sidewalks built or Supervision consultant built by the project months supervision ground of work done rehabilitated (eventually on both sides of consultant the road) ME IO Table SPACE Page 43 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) ANNEX 1: Implementation Arrangements and Support Plan COUNTRY: São Tomé and Príncipe Sao Tome e Principe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project Project Institutional and Implementation Arrangements 1. INAE, under the MOPIRNA, will have the responsibility of the technical aspects of project, while, AFAP, the fiduciary agency established by the Government under the MPFEA, will have the fiduciary responsibility of the project. AFAP is the fiduciary agency for project administration in STP. AFAP has a track record in the implementation of World Bank-financed education, telecommunications, and social protection and energy projects. The proposed project scope will mostly cover road rehabilitation and improvement and the INAE will be providing the technical leadership for project implementation. 2. As both INAE and AFAP are independent governmental agencies with their own legal personality and powers, and not part of a government ministry (notwithstanding that they report to MOPIRNA and MPFEA, respectively), IDA will enter into a single Project Agreement with both INAE and AFAP and require STP to enter into a Subsidiary Agreement with AFAP in relation to the latter’s fiduciary responsibilities. 3. A project-specific Steering Committee will be established to provide guidance and direction during implementation. It will be chaired by the Minister in charge of Finance and include representatives of the MOPIRNA, INAE, and AFAP. The Steering Committee will meet at least once every quarter. AFAP’s General Director shall serve as the Steering Committee secretary. 4. AFAP will have the fiduciary responsibility for the day-to-day management of the project, including: (a) preparing annual work plans and budgets and annual procurement plans; and (b) assuming overall responsibility for, among others, fiduciary tasks such as procurement, FM, M&E (for example, developing and maintaining a system for monitoring the project’s key performance indicators). INAE will be in charge of the coordination and communication of project-related activities, including: (a) ensuring the timely implementation of the project in accordance with the Project Operations Manual; and (b) environmental and social safeguards (ensuring adherence to the safeguard documents of all entities involved in the project implementation). Both agencies will report to the Steering Committee to ensure clear communication with all relevant ministries and obtain decisions on issues pertaining to multiple government stakeholders. A project M&E officer will be appointed by AFAP and will report jointly to INAE and AFAP on technical activities related to project implementation. The project M&E officer will be responsible for the technical implementation of the project with the support of the project supervision consultant including on-site supervision of works and approval of contract deliveries. 5. An ad hoc technical Working Group will follow up on implementation of the project. The Working Group will report to the MOPIRNA and submit regular reports on progress of the project developments. This group will be chaired by a representative of the MOPIRNA and will have representatives from AFAP, the project’s M&E officer, the CEO of INAE, a representative from GIME, and a representative from the Directorate General of Environment from the MOPIRNA. The group will meet quarterly or more frequently as needed. 6. Considering the lack of capacity and need to at both AFAP and INAE, a Project Management Support Consultant (PMSC) firm, including a road engineer, an environment safeguards specialist and a social development specialist Page 44 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) will be hired to provide support on need-basis. The PMSC, the project supervision consultants, will fill the capacity gap at both INAE and AFAP and will provide an opportunity to build local capacity by learning on the job over the project implementation period. Financial Management 7. An FM Assessment was undertaken to evaluate the adequacy of the project FM arrangements. The Assessment was carried out in accordance with the Policy and Directive for IPF and the World Bank Guidance on FM in World Bank IPF Operations issued on February 28, 2017. The overall FM was assessed to be adequate, and the risk rating was assessed as Moderate. Some mitigation measures are proposed accordingly. 8. FM Action Plan. To establish an acceptable control environment and to mitigate FM risks the following measures should be taken by the due dates as indicated in the FM Action Plan. FM arrangements 9. Budgeting. AFAP will prepare the annual budgets based on the Annual Work Plans (AWPs) agreed with INAE and the procurement plans. These budgets should contain details of objectives, expected outcomes, and performance indicators. AFAP will also be responsible for producing variance analysis reports comparing planned with actual expenditures on a quarterly basis. The periodic variance analysis will enable the timely identification of deviations from the budget. These quarterly variance analysis reports will be part of the unaudited IFRs that will be submitted to the World Bank on a quarterly basis. The budget preparation and monitoring of budget execution is described in the existing draft Financial Procedures Manual, and formats for annual budget and monitoring reports are included as annexes. 10. Staffing. AFAP will be responsible for fiduciary aspects of the project. The overall responsibility of project FM matters rest with AFAP financial manager reporting to the AFAP coordinator. The AFAP current FM staffing comprises a Financial Manager, an Accountant and Financial Assistant. An additional finance staff joined AFAP FM team in August 2018. The AFAP finance staff arrangements seems to be adequate as they have been able to perform their duties and obligations so far. Furthermore, the AFAP FM capacity will be strengthened by hiring additional financial staff to ensure a balanced workload. 11. Accounting. The AFAP will account for funds, expenditures, and resources of the proposed project using the existing accounting software. This accounting software is adequate as it can produce reliable financial reports required to monitor and manage effectively the progress of the project. The accounting software will be customized to maintain separate records and ledge accounts for the proposed project and allow preparation of financial reports required to monitor and manage effectively the project. 12. Internal Control. The General Inspectorate of Finance (Inspeção Geral das Finanças, IGF) would normally conduct internal audit reviews of the activities of this operation as its mandate is to carry out internal audit reviews of the entire government entities. However, the project activities may not be subject to internal audit review by IGF due to its limited capacity and some constraints on their work program. As AFAP is handling several World Bank-financed projects and it is expected to manage other development projects to be financed by other development partners, its therefore, recommended that a qualified and experienced internal auditor should be Page 45 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) engaged by AFAP within six months after the project effectiveness. The finance and administrative procedures to be employed by the agency in the implementation of the project are documented in the existing draft Financial Procedures Manual which will be revised and include as a part to the Project Operations Manual. 13. Financial Reporting. AFAP is producing regular quarterly financial reports and annual project financial statements (PFS) for the ongoing projects. For the proposed project, this agency will produce and submit to the World Bank bi-annual IFRs within 45 days after the end of the calendar semester. In addition, AFAP will also produce annual PFS in accordance with Financial Reporting under Cash Basis of Accounting. The formats of those financial reports will be similar to those in use for ongoing operations. In addition, the PFS comments will be outlined in the terms of reference for audit of this proposed project. Funds Flow and Disbursement Arrangements 14. To facilitate the implementation of the project activities, AFAP will establish and maintain a segregated Designated Account (DA) to receive advances from IDA, in U.S. dollars at commercial bank under terms and conditions acceptable to the World Bank. In addition, a sub-account will be established and maintained at same commercial bank for the DA to facilitate payments in local currency. Funds in the DA and sub-account will be used to finance the project’s eligible expenditure in accordance with Financing Agreement and the Disbursement and Financial Information Letter. The Figure 1.1 depicts the funds flow mechanism for the project activities to be financed by IDA funds. International Development Association (IDA) Direct Payments Request from Designated Account (U.S. dollar) AFAP upon Sub-Account (Dobra) Providers of Goods and Services, and VFP beneficiaries Figure 1.1: Circulation of IDA Funds 15. Disbursement arrangements. Disbursement of IDA funds will be done on a transaction basis (SoEs). Upon effectiveness of the credit, an initial advance up to the ceiling of the DA (to be indicated in the Disbursement and Financial Information Letter [DFIL]) and representing four months forecasted project expenditures payable through the DA will be made into the DA. Subsequent disbursements, will be made monthly against submission of the SoEs or other documents as specified in the DFIL. The option of disbursing the funds through direct payments from IDA for payments above the threshold to be indicated in the DFIL will be available. Options for the use of special commitments and reimbursements will also be available. Page 46 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) Table 1.1: Eligible Expenditures Category Amount of the Grant Percentage of Expenditures to be Financed Allocated (expressed in (inclusive of Taxes) SDR) (1) Goods, works, non-consulting 19,800,000 100 services, consulting services, Training, and Operating Costs for the Project (2) Emergency Expenditures 100 (Component 4 of the Project): (a) Critical Goods (Component 4(a) of the Project) 0 (b) Works, non-consulting services, consulting services, Training, and Operating Costs for 0 Components 4(b) and (c) of the Project (3) Refund of Preparation Advance 1,000,000 Amount payable pursuant to Section 2.07 (a) of the General Conditions TOTAL AMOUNT 20,800,000 16. Auditing. The project will be audited annually by independent auditors acceptable to the World Bank. A single private audit firm is appointed as external auditor of all World Bank-financed operations handled by AFAP, therefore the existing contract with private audit firm will be amended to cover the audit of the proposed project financial statements. The project financial statements will be audited in accordance with International Standards on Auditing as issued by the IAASB within IFAC. The audit report together with Management Letter will be submitted to IDA within six months after the financial year-end; that is June 30th of each following year. The costs incurred for the audit will be financed under the project. 17. Effectiveness condition. The following FM action is an effectiveness conditions: revise and adopt a Financial Procedures Manual. 18. Dated covenants. The following FM action are dated covenants (i) customize the accounting software to maintain separate records and ledge accounts for the proposed project within two months after the project effective date; (ii) dated covenants: appoint qualified and experienced internal auditor for AFAP within six months after the project effective date. Page 47 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) Table 1.2: Financial Management Action Plan Due Dates Number Action Responsibility Completion Date Customize the accounting software to Within two months after 1 maintain separate records and ledge AFAP project effectiveness accounts for the proposed project. Appointment of qualified and experienced Within six months after 2 AFAP internal auditor for AFAP project effectiveness 19. Implementation Support Plan. Based on the current overall residual FM risk of this operation, the project will be supervised once a year, in addition to routine desk-based reviews, to ensure that Project’s FM arrangements operate as intended and that funds are used efficiently for the intended purposes. 20. FM Risk Assessment and Mitigation. The risks and mitigation measures are described in the table below. Table 1.3: FM Risk Assessment and Mitigation Conditions of Risk Mitigating Measures Risk Negotiations, Board or Residual Risk factors/Description of Risk Incorporated into the Project Rating Effectiveness (Yes or Risk Rating Design No) Inherent Risk: Country level: The country faces S No S human resource constraints; The STP Government is outdated legal framework on committed to implementing budgeting, internal and external reforms of the country’s PFMs auditing functions; limited with support of the development coverage of Integrated Financial partners, these include: Management System (IFMIS) implementation of IFMIS, expand and Single Treasury Account. the coverage of the Single Treasury Account, and capacity building to key PFM institution. The World Bank will support PFM reform initiatives through Institutional Capacity Building Project recently approved by the Board, which includes supporting accounting profession in STP. The ring-fencing of the project funds under AFAP will mitigate these weaknesses. Entity level: AFAP has M AFAP financial staff has No M experience in handling FM experience in handling World matters of World Bank-financed Bank-financed operations, and its project, however the fact that capacity will be strengthened by AFAP is handling several appointment of two additional projects poses a risk as this finance staff. could jeopardize its ability to perform well for all projects Page 48 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) Conditions of Risk Mitigating Measures Risk Negotiations, Board or Residual Risk factors/Description of Risk Incorporated into the Project Rating Effectiveness (Yes or Risk Rating Design No) Project level: The resources of M This is a simple project with only No M the project may not be used for one spending unit and the project the purpose intended. implementing entities will comply with key internal controls as set out in the draft Financial procedures manual. AFAP will make use of existing accounting software to account for funds, expenditures, and resources of the project. The World Bank will provide necessary implementation support on project FM matters. Control Risk: Budgeting: Weak budget M The AFAP will produce periodic No M monitoring system which can financial reports comparing lead budgetary overrun planned and actual project expenditures. The budget monitoring procedures will be documented in the Financial Procedures Manual to be adopted before project effectiveness. Accounting: Project funds, S AFAP will make use of the No M expenditures, and resources are automated accounting package not properly recorded since to account for project funds, AFAP is accounting for other expenditures and resources, projects and may be confused in which is currently in use by the handling record of the project ongoing operation. In so doing transactions the accounting package will be customized for separately record of project transactions and production of financial reports. The AFAP FM capacity will be strengthened by appointment of additional two finance staff. Internal control: S Financial and administrative Yes M Noncompliance with key procedures to be employed by internal control procedures due AFAP in project implementation to weak internal control are documented in the existing environment and oversight draft Financial Procedures mechanisms in the country. Manual. This draft will be reviewed to ensure that specific aspects of the project activities are appropriately addressed by it. World Bank’s regular FM implementation support through desk reviews and field visits will make appropriate recommendations to improve Page 49 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) Conditions of Risk Mitigating Measures Risk Negotiations, Board or Residual Risk factors/Description of Risk Incorporated into the Project Rating Effectiveness (Yes or Risk Rating Design No) project FM environment. An internal auditor for AFAP will be appointed. Funds flow: Delays in payments L Disbursements of project will be No L to the contracts and suppliers handled by AFAP financial may impact negatively manager capable of performing implementation of project well his duties. The project activities. finance staff are familiar with World Bank’s disbursement procedures. Additional staff will be appointed. Financial reporting: AFAP may M IFR and annual financial No M not able to produce the financial statements formats and contents reports in a timely manner as have been discussed and agreed required to monitor and with AFAP. The formats will be effectively manage the project. similar to those in use for ongoing operations. AFAP will use the automated accounting package that will enable the efficient and timely generation of financial information. Auditing: Delays in submission M AFAP has been submitting audit No M of audit reports and delays in reports of ongoing project on implementing the time. An independent external recommendations of the audit firm will be hired by the Management Letter. project to ensure compliance with the audit submission timelines set out in the financing agreement. The World Bank will monitor audit submission compliance and ensure implementation of Management Letter recommendations. Governance and S Robust FM arrangements No S Accountability: Possibility of (including a comprehensive corrupt practices including annual audit of project accounts, bribes, abuse of administrative World Bank FM supervision and political positions, mis- including review of transactions procurement and misuse of and asset verification) designed funds and so on, are a critical to mitigate the fiduciary risks in issue. addition to AFAPs’ overall internal control systems. Page 50 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) Conditions of Risk Mitigating Measures Risk Negotiations, Board or Residual Risk factors/Description of Risk Incorporated into the Project Rating Effectiveness (Yes or Risk Rating Design No) AFAP FM capacity will be strengthened by recruitment of additional two finance staff. An internal auditor for AFAP will be appointed. OVERALL FM RISK M M Note: IFMIS = Integrated FM System; S = Substantial; M = Moderate; L = Low. Conclusion of the assessment 21. The FM Assessment of the project’s FM arrangements have an overall residual FM risk rating of “Moderate”, which satisfy the World Bank IPF Policy and Directive. Procurement 22. Applicable procedures. The Borrower will carry out procurement under the proposed project in accordance with the World Bank’s “Procurement Regulations for IPF Borrowers” (Procurement Regulations) dated July 2016 and revised in November 2017 and August 2018 under the NPF, and the “Guidelines on Preventing and Combating Fraud and Corruption in Projects Financed by IBRD Loans and IDA Credits and Grants”, dated July 1, 2016, and other provisions stipulated in the Financing Agreements. 23. Procurement strategy. The Borrower has prepared the PPSD. The World Bank procurement team has provided the necessary support and guidance to the Borrower in preparing the PPSD. Taking in to account the complexity of the project, the simplified PPSD was used. 24. Procurement arrangements INAE will have the overall technical responsibility over project activities, while AFAP (Fiduciary Agency for Project Management) will have the fiduciary responsibility of the project, including the procurement function. 25. Procedures for selection of consultants. Consulting services for the supervision of the road rehabilitation (estimated at US$1,000,000), for the update of the road database/GIS (estimated at US$150,000), for the Road Climate Vulnerability Assessment & Manual for climate-proofing roads (estimated at US$250,000) and for Technical Assistance for GIME to support piloting innovative climate resilient road maintenance activities (estimated at US$150,000) will be procured through the quality and cost-based selection method. The consultants’ qualification selection method will be used for recruitment of services for technical support for GIMEs. Individual consultant selection method will be used for the recruitment of the M&E officer, for the road safety strategy and institutional support for the road fund. 26. Procedures for procurement of goods and works. Works for the rehabilitation of the road EN1 from STP to Guadalupe (estimated at US$21,000,000) will be procured through request for bids method open international market approach. Small scale road safety interventions and innovative climate resilient road maintenance works Page 51 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) will be contracted to GIMEs. Equipment for INAE (vehicle, IT, furniture), estimated each at less than US$100,000, will be procured through the request for quotations method. 27. The Procurement Plan will be managed through the World Bank’s tracking system, Systematic Tracking of Exchanges in Procurement (STEP). 28. Review by the World Bank of procurement decisions. The table below indicates the initial values for prior Review by the World Bank. Unless otherwise indicated in the PPSD and related Procurement Plan, all activities estimated to cost below these amounts shall be treated as post review and will be reviewed by the World Bank during the Implementation Support Mission under a post procurement review exercise. Direct Contracting/Single Source Selection will be subject to prior review only for contracts estimated to cost more than the amounts indicated in the Table. The World Bank may, from time to time, review the amounts, based on the performance of the project implementing entities. Table 1.4: Prior Review Thresholds Procurement Type Prior Review (US$) Works 5,000,000 Goods and non-consulting services 1,5000,000 Consultants (Firms) 500,000 Individual consultants 200,000 29. Assessment of National Procedures. A Procurement Law (Law 8/2009 of August 26) enacted a Procurement Regulation and the creation of a Procurement supervisory body, the Procurement and Coordination and Supervision Office (COSSIL). The COSSIL is a body mandated to centralize procurement information, assist the decentralized procurement units, and ensure uniformity and quality across government procuring units. However, the STP procurement law, since it was enacted, has not been revised or updated to incorporate lessons learned or adopt the latest international best practices. 30. Limited resources and capacity constraints are affecting negatively the functions of the supervisory body. Despite the procurement law, limited progress has been achieved with its implementation, mainly due to the limited allocation of resources for the functioning of COSSIL, since its inception to date. Furthermore, the training delivered to public servants appears to have been limited in terms of its quality, frequency and scope and not conducive to the establishment of a critical official in procurement. As a result, the ability for the country or of the procurement practitioners to grow over time has also been limited. 31. STP’s Regulations are generally consistent with international best practice for the following reasons: (a) there is adequate advertising in national media; (b) the procurement is generally open to eligible firms from any country; (c) contracts documents have an appropriate allocation of responsibilities, risks, and liabilities; (d) publication of contract award information in local newspapers of wide circulation is required; (e) the national regulations do not preclude the World Bank from its rights to review procurement documentation and activities under the financing; (f) there is an acceptable complaints mechanism; and (g) the maintenance of records of the procurement process is acceptable. Page 52 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) 32. However, the request for bids/request for proposals document shall require that bidders/proposers submitting bids/proposals present a signed acceptance at the time of bidding, to be incorporated in any resulting contracts, confirming application of, and compliance with, the World Bank’s Anti-Corruption Guidelines, including without limitation the World Bank’s right to sanction and the World Bank’s inspection and audit rights. Page 53 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) ANNEX 2: Climate and Climate Change Analysis for São Tomé Island Observed climate 1. The spatial distribution of the monthly average temperature at 2 m (Figure 2.1) from the WorldClim7 data shows that in São Tomé Island, temperatures vary between 16 and 27 ° C in the hottest months (February, March and April) and between 13 and 25 °C in the coldest month (July). The areas with the highest temperatures are located mainly on the northeast of the island, in all months of the year. The lowest temperatures are found in the highest altitude regions with the average monthly values between 13 and 16 ° C during the year. 2. The precipitation regime on São Tomé Island presents two maximum values, according to data from CMORPH8, one in April and one in the month of November (Figure .2). The small decrease of the precipitation is observed in the months of December, January and February, period that is denominated "Gravanito". The period of less precipitation is denominated "Gravana" and it includes the months of June to September. During this period rainfall is less than 25 mm/month in most of São Tomé Island. The maximum values of monthly precipitation exceed 300 mm/month in some areas as in the east of the Island and in the higher regions. The spatial distribution shows that maximal rainfall occur in the South-Southwest part of São Tomé Island. Figure 2.1: Average monthly temperature at 2m above ground Figure 2.2: Monthly precipitation (mm/month) for the 1971- (°C) observed from the WordClim data for the period 1971-2000. 2000 periods from the observed data (CMORPH) Predicted climate change 3. The results presented for the period 2041-2070 below have been obtained using the model Eta-4km, using the Canadian Earth System Model, CanESM2, as the forcing Global Circulation Model, with bias correction from the temperature and precipitation respectively from WorldClim and CMORPH. The model CanESM has been selected and used as part of the preparation of the 3rd national communication on Climate Change (under preparation) as 7 http://www.worldclim.org/, HIJMANS, Robert J. et al. 2005, Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. International journal of climatology, (25) n. 15, p. 1965-1978. DOI: 10.1002/joc.1276. 8 JOYCE, R. J.; et al. 2004. CMORPH: A method that produces global precipitation estimates from passive microwave and infrared data at high spatial and temporal resolution. Journal of Hydrometeorology, (5): p. 487-503. Page 54 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) its modeled reanalysis for the 1971-2000 period presents the highest correlations to the observations for the West Africa and Central region. 4. Under two climate change scenarios (RCP9 4.5 and RCP8.5), the temperature is expected to increase all along the year. The simulations indicate greater climatic changes in the central part of São Tomé Island, where the highest altitudes are found. Changes in temperature reach about 3°C in the month of February for RCP 4.5 climate scenario (Figure 2.). This increase in temperature is even more prominent in the RCP8.5 emission scenario, especially in the central part of the Island (Figure 2.). This increase will also be reflected in the extreme value, with the annual maximum temperature increasing by more than 5°C in certain part of the island (Figure 2.) Figure 2.3: Change in monthly average temperature at 2 m Figure 2.4:Change in monthly average temperature at 2 m above ground (°C) predicted by the Eta-4km model for the above ground (°C) predicted by the Eta-4km model for the period 2041-2070 with the scenario RCP 4.5 in comparison to period 2041-2070 with the scenario RCP 8.5 in comparison to the reference period 1971-2000 the reference period 1971-2000. Figure 2.5: Change in annual maximal temperature 9 RCP= Representative Concentration Pathways Page 55 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) 5. The predictions for precipitations patterns are more nuanced, as total annual precipitation present opposite trends, but extreme events are expected to increase in both scenarios. In the RCP4.5 scenario, projections of changes in precipitation indicate higher rainfall increases in the months of December through March, being more prominent in the south-southwest part where there are already higher rainfall totals (Figure2.). On the other hand, the projections indicate reductions of total volume of rainfall to occur between the months of May to August. The change in rainfall indicated by the Eta model projections are small in the months of July to September. In the RCP8.5 scenario, the projections indicate a strong reduction of rainfall. Rainfall increases only between the months of December and January. The reduction of rainfall in this emission scenario is very marked in the months of February to July and form September to November (Figure 2.). Figure2.6:Change in average monthly precipitation (mm/month) Figure 2.7:Change in average monthly precipitation predicted by the Eta-4km model for the period 2041-2070 with (mm/month) predicted by the Eta-4km model for the period the scenario RCP 4.5 in comparison to the reference period 2041-2070 with the scenario RCP 8.5 in comparison to the 1971-2000. reference period 1971-2000. 6. However, according to both climate scenarios, there should be an increase in extreme precipitation events, with an increase in annual maximum 1-day and 5-day precipitation (Figure 2.). This might impact the ability of the drainage system to evacuate the future rainfall after heavy rainfall in the future, if no upgrade of the system is performed. Figure 2.8: Change in maximum annual 1-day precipitation (RX1day) and in 5-day precipitation (RX5day) for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenario for the 2041-2070 period compared to 1971-2000 Page 56 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) Figure 2.9: Observation and scenarios of evolution of bother precipitation (above) and temperature (below) at airport station (close to São Tomé capital) Impacts of climate change on coastal conditions 7. Based on the RCP 8.5 scenario, the sea-level rise rate is expected to increase over the century, with a mean sea level expected to be 0.74 cm higher in 2100 compared to its level in 2000 (Figure 2.). Figure 2.0: Scenario of Sea Level Rise according to IPCC for the RCP 8.5 scenario 8. Based on the analysis of the wave climate and its evolution (CDR et al. 2018 Vulnerability analysis), the relative increase of the wave height is expected to be higher for the higher waves compared to the lower waves. For example, the height of the waves in the months October and November would increase by 6 percent in 2100 compared to 2000, while the yearly average would increase by only 3 percent. 9. The extreme wave height would also become higher, with an increase of the 100-year return period wave of 10 percent from current period to the end of the 21st century (Figure 2.) Page 57 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) Figure 2.11: Evolution of extreme value of significant wave height (based on ERA-interim data) Page 58 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) ANNEX 3: Mitigating and Responding to Gender Based Violence, Including Sexual Exploitation and Abuse 1. GBV risks including SEA and violence against children (VAC) risks are considered low in the current project context. Nonetheless the project will finance activities to prevent, mitigate and manage the risks. These activities are summarized in an action plan presented in 3.1. The safeguards documents of the project (ESIA and ESMF) have also been prepared to include an assessment of and mitigation measures for GBV and SEA related risks. An Accountability and Response Framework that will be finalized during early project implementation phase will include a GRM for capturing GBV complaints as well as a referral pathway to appropriate support services for GBV survivors. Risk assessment Country context 2. Information on violence against women is limited in STP but some evidence suggests that the most common form of violence in the country is physical violence within the family, where the victims are frequently women and children. Cultural attitudes of male domination are often cited as the root causes explaining such violence. According to the 2009 demographic and health survey, 34 per cent of women have experienced emotional, physical or sexual violence at the hands of their spouses. 3. Although women have the right to legal recourse in cases of domestic violence, including against spouses, many were reluctant to bring legal action because of the cost and a general lack of faith in the legal system to address their concerns effectively. Women often were uninformed of their legal rights. The law prescribes penalties ranging from imprisonment for three to eight years in cases of domestic violence resulting in harm to the health of the victim to incarceration for eight to 16 years when such violence leads to loss of life. There was no data on the number of prosecutions or convictions for domestic violence. GBV risks identified under the project 4. The GBV risk for the project is considered low. The assessment tool developed by the World Bank rates the risk as low based on the proposed project activities and the review of regional and national evidence such as the existence of laws on violence against women, current rates of intimate partner violence, published rates of trafficking, laws on child marriage. For the project, there is no expectation of major labor influx or worker’s camps to be set up as most of the work is anticipated to be done by local workers. Legal framework for addressing GBV 5. The adoption in 2007 of the National Strategy for Gender Equality and Equity (ENIEG) has provided a framework of reference for all interventions linked to the promotion of gender equality, equity and empowerment of women. The strategy as also led to the establishment of the National Institute for Gender Promotion (INPG) as the National Mechanism in charge of ensuring the implementation of the Government's policy on gender equality and empowerment of women. 6. The Domestic Violence Counseling Center (CACVD) was also created through the adoption of the Law on Domestic and Family Violence in 2008 that establishes mechanisms to prevent and punish domestic and family Page 59 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) violence, in line with the Convention for the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women (CEDAW) as well as the Law that same year on strengthening mechanisms for the Legal Protection of Victims of Crimes of Domestic and Family Violence, which establishes a system of prevention and support for victims of domestic and family violence. 7. The creation of the CACVD and ratification of these laws contributed to raising national awareness of the violation of women's rights and helped women themselves break the silence on the phenomenon by denouncing cases of violence that were previously not seen as a crime and framed domestic violence as a public crime. 8. Still, despite these positive advances, it is reported that while the law protects all citizens against any form of violence, enforcement of the law is weak due to the limited capacity of the police force in terms of training and facilities. There is a reported lack of resources such as vehicles and radios as well. Stakeholder engagement and capacity to respond to GBV 9. The project has assessed the capacity at the national level, through the implementation entities and local support that may be available through local NGOs specialized in GBV service provision. A round table was organized specifically with representatives of local government officials and civil society organizations to discuss both the gender dimensions of the project and possible GBV and SEA risks. Participants included representatives from the National Center Against Domestic Violence, the President of the FENAME (the National Roads Maintenance Federation in charge of the GIMEs), the National institute for social security and social actions, the directorate for social protection and solidarity, and the Head of the Unit Against Domestic Violence within the National Police. 10. Within the UN system, UNICEF (United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund) and especially the UNFPA (formerly United Nations Population Fund) have been the organizations that have provided the greatest amount of support to STP in its efforts to integrate a gender perspective into the various sectors, including health, education and economic planning. There are also some initiatives undertaken by national and foreign NGOs. Future programming of these organizations includes strengthening the capacity of national institutions, including civil society organizations, to prevent and address GBV. Mitigation and Response Measures 11. Safeguards. In addition to assessing GBV risks, project preparation has included the review and preparation of safeguards documents to consider GBV and SEA risks and mitigation measures, as well as the design of specific GBV and SEA measures to work with local GBV service providers. The project will undertake several activities to mitigate GBV risks emanating from project activities and to respond to cases when needed. 12. Project Implementing Entities’ Capacity Building. GBV awareness training and relevant capacity building activities will be provided to project implementing entities AFAP and INAE staff to provide them with the skills and knowledge on how to incorporate gender into the project cycle, including integration of prevention and response to GBV in the anticipate rural road maintenance works. 13. GBV support services. AFAP will recruit an NGO approved by the INAE and the World Bank with experience and expertise in GBV to train workers and inform communities to mitigate the risk of GBV, as well as to provide support funded by the project to survivors who request assistance and/or referrals to support services, as appropriate. The Page 60 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) specialized NGO will also help strengthen the GRM so that specific procedures for GBV include confidential reporting with safe and ethical documenting of GBV cases. Within six months after the Effective Date, the GBV Support Organization will help INAE to prepare and adopt action plan detailing (i) measures that endeavor to prevent and respond to gender-based violence and (ii) the procedural, budget and institutional arrangements and actions needed to implement these measures, and including an accountability and response framework and measures that contractors will be required to take. 14. Community-based approach for road maintenance through the GIMEs. Through Sub-component 1.1, the project will support and help develop a national social and behavior change communication GBV prevention program for raising awareness of women and girls and children in the project areas and communities. Social and Behavior Change Communication activities will introduce the use of mobile technology to increase awareness, monitor and refer victims to health and legal clinics. Monitoring and supervision 15. GRM. The project grievance redress mechanism will have specific procedures for GBV, including confidential reporting with safe and ethical documenting of GBV cases and for timely response on actions taken to respond to complaints. Several entry points of communications have been identified through which complaints can be registered in a safe and confidential manner. Monitoring complaints will also be recorded in the project’s GRM but no identifiable information on the survivors will be stored in the GRM. In addition, for GBV allegations, an accountability and response mechanism for resolving GBV cases will identify who specifically will be responsible for handling complaints to seeking resolution and appropriate sanctions. Page 61 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) Table 3.1- GBV and SEA prevention and risk management measures No. Phase Action Timeline Responsible Status Comments 1 Preparation Sensitize the technical September 2018 World Bank Complete Discussions during the mission and services; strategic actors in the pre-evaluation a round table organized on implementation of the Project mission September 20th, 2018 raised the awareness of the technical services of INAE, AFAP, DGA, FENAME, CCAVD and the police on the importance of considering the risks of GBV and their management. 2 Preparation Assessing GBV risks Preparation World Bank Complete The ESIA highlighted a risk of GBV. AFAP The World Bank team also assessed the GBV risk of the project using the GBV assessment tool in addition to reviewing GBV national studies data. The GBV risks for the project have been identified as low and the risks related to the influx of labor related to the planned rehabilitation works of rural roads and road maintenance works are also considered as low. 3 Preparation Mapping the actors working Pre-appraisal INAE, AFAP and the World Complete A roundtable organized during the on the prevention and mission Bank mission identified key management of GBV victims in stakeholders. An NGO specialized the project's area of influence in GBV will be recruited to finalize the mapping and the preparation of the implementation of the complaints management mechanism and possible support for victims. 4 Preparation Reflect GBV risks in all Preparation and World Bank Complete The safeguard documents were Page 62 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) No. Phase Action Timeline Responsible Status Comments safeguard documents (ESIA, Implementation AFAP for safeguards reviewed to ensure that gender ESMP, ESMP-E) and (before works (ESIA, ESMF) and SEA aspects are considered. considered in contractual begin) documents (codes of conduct). Include stakeholder mapping in these documents. 5 Preparation Evaluate the capacity of the Pre-appraisal World Bank Complete INAE will have a dedicated team of INAE and AFAP to prevent and mission social and environmental respond to GBV. safeguards specialists who, in addition to implementing the social and environmental monitoring framework, will ensure the identification of the social and environmental risks of the sub- projects, including GBV, and the effectiveness of risk mitigation measures. INAE will work with a GBV NGO that will be recruited to monitor GBV prevention measures as well as GBV care. In addition, a social expert, with proven skills in issues of gender and GBV, will be recruited. 6 Preparation During public consultations, Preparation and World Bank Complete Consultations on the project's those affected by the project implementation AFAP (ESIA, ESMF,). activities for the 13.3 km took should be informed about GBV place during the preparation of the risks and project activities to ESIA and ESMF. get their feedback on the Further consultations are planned project design and safeguard for the other project areas. The issues. specialized NGO will oversee awareness-raising campaign and public consultations on GBV Page 63 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) No. Phase Action Timeline Responsible Status Comments aspects, the services available and the mechanism for managing and preventing complaints. 8 Preparation Stakeholder Preparation and World Bank Planned The project will include awareness mobilization/information plan implementation AFAP (ESIA, ESMF) campaigns and stakeholder should address GBV issues Contractors (Contract consultations including religious Environmental leaders, traditional leaders, and Management Plans). those directly affected by the GBV risk project. 9 Preparation Establish an effective Before the INAE, with AFAP and In progress The integration of protocols to complaints management mobilization of World Bank team support receive and monitor SEA cases in system the contractor complaint mechanisms will be confirmed, guaranteeing confidentiality and anonymity and establishing links with village committees or existing women's associations and to allow safe and respectful spaces for reporting ESA. 10 Implementation For supervision, ensure that During the AFAP Planned The existing national approach and the monitoring mission has an evaluation of with information from community outreach and environmental, social, health the bids for the INAE (ESIA, ESMF) communication materials services and safety specialist with GBV audit mission Contractors (Contract for at-risk populations will be skills to supervise GBV-related Environmental complemented by specific services issues (e.g. supervise the Management Plans). after confirming to relevant signing of codes of conduct, ministries the mechanisms and check that the GBV complaint with support of World procedures envisaged for SEA case management mechanism Bank reports. It is also planned to works, enter who to contact in review and evaluate how to case of GBV) and work with strengthen the learning and NGOs to inform them about reporting tools, including ensuring the existence of the complaint that all confidential information is management mechanism properly routed and managed with the utmost discretion. Page 64 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) No. Phase Action Timeline Responsible Status Comments 11 Preparation Provide a budget to recruit an Pre-appraisal AFAP Complete As part of the project, a budget NGO that can take care of mission has been earmarked to recruit a victims in a timely, safe and specialized NGO to take care of confidential manner. GBV victims, conduct awareness campaigns, and monitor prevention measures. 12 Implementation Select NGO that would After Board AFAP with support of Planned An NGO specialized in GBV will be support PMCU in the approval World Bank recruited to finalize this mapping implementation of the GBV and the implementation of the action plan and sign contract complaint management and victim management mechanism. 5 Implementation Develop a GBV action plan 6 months after World Bank Planned World Bank has reviewed (including an accountability effectiveness NGO safeguard documents with and response framework) for INAE representatives of the any construction work Implementing Entities (AFAP and INAE) to raise awareness about aspects of GBV. The safeguard documents (ESIA, ESMP) have been developed and include the GBV. The project team, in coordination with project stakeholders, will review the procurement and tendering process to ensure contractors and supervisory consultants respect social safeguards, and that GBV risks are addressed during the project phases. The GBV action plan, part of the safeguards documents package, will have to be prepared no later than 6 months after effectiveness. 13 Award of contracts Clearly define the GBV Award of Planned The project plans to use the latest Page 65 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) No. Phase Action Timeline Responsible Status Comments requirements and contracts AFAP versions of the World Bank's expectations in the tender with information from standard bidding documents documents INAE (ESIA, ESMF) (DAOs) which define the Contractors (Contract expectations and obligations of Environmental companies regarding GBV. Management Plans) Contractual clauses relating to GBV with support of World will be included in the contracts of Bank companies including that each company has rules of procedure with GBV codes of conduct, signature of the rules of procedure by all the workers, training of all the workers on the code of conduct, daily briefings on the code of conduct. 14 Award of contracts Define the requirements for Award of AFAP with information Planned It is planned to include three an anti-GBV code of conduct contracts from elements in the Code of Conduct: INAE (i) clear language about the values of the organization in relation to with support of World professional conduct on the site; Bank (ii) prohibition of sexual intercourse with a minor; and (iii) dismissal and prosecution if a worker violates the code of conduct. 15 Award of contracts Explain clearly in the tender Award of AFAP Planned The tender documents may documents how the costs contracts with support from INAE include, for example: related to GBV will be paid. - Dedicated line in the price with support of World schedule for clearly defined Bank activities (e.g. preparation of anti- GBV plans) - Provisional amounts for activities that cannot be defined in advance (e.g. implementation of said plans, Page 66 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) No. Phase Action Timeline Responsible Status Comments commitment of specialized NGOs if necessary). 16 Award of Contracts Clearly explain to bidders the Award of INAE with support of Planned An information meeting on GBV requirements of the code of contracts AFAP will be organized with the conduct with support of World companies recruited after the Bank notification and before the service order. 17 Award of contracts Evaluate the company's Award of AFAP with support of Planned The capacity of the companies will response to GBV questions in contracts INAE be evaluated before the award of the ESMP and confirm the with support of World the works contract. company's ability to meet the Bank project's GBV requirements before signing the contract. 18 Implementation Verify that the GBV risk Implementation INAE Planned ESMPs will be reviewed and will mitigation measures are with support of include service mapping as well as included in the ESMP- AFAP a higher-level information clause Construction site with support of World to address the risks of GBV if these Bank become apparent during project implementation. A bond for the proper implementation of environmental and social measures that includes GBV measures will be activated before the signing of the contract. 19 Implementation Ensure that the complaints Implementation INAE with support of Planned The availability of an effective management mechanism AFAP GRM, including specific procedures receives and processes for responding to any SEA risk, is complaints in a timely manner with support of World ongoing. A specific GRM for the Bank follow-up of SEA complaints will certainly be in addition to and in coordination with the project GRM for non-SEA matters. Specific communication tools are envisaged, such as the Page 67 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) No. Phase Action Timeline Responsible Status Comments establishment of a toll-free number, face-to-face consultations with community leaders and women's associations, as some areas of the project are very poor and access to technology very limited. This will be done with the support of the NGO specialized in GBV. 20 Implementation Codes of conduct signed and Start before the INAE and AFAP Planned Ensure codes of conduct are understood mobilization of Specialized NGO signed by all physically present on the company the project site. Train employees and continue with support of World working on the project to the during the work Bank requirements of the Code of Conduct. Disseminate codes of conduct (including visual illustrations) and talk to employees and local communities. This will be done with the support of the NGO specialized in GBV. The project could include an indicator on the percentage of workers recruited who have signed the code of conduct. Monthly monitoring mission reports should confirm that all persons physically present at the project site have signed a code of conduct and have received training on the code. 21 Implementation Sensitize project staff and local World Bank Planned This will be done with the support communities to issues of INAE of the NGO specialized in GBV. sexual exploitation and abuse Specialized NGO For the GBV complaint and sexual harassment management mechanism to work well, it will be important to Page 68 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) No. Phase Action Timeline Responsible Status Comments conduct at least one public consultation followed by focus groups of key stakeholders at the level of each village bordering the project areas. 22 Implementation Regularly monitor and World Bank Planned The monitoring will be done with evaluate the progress of GBV INAE (M&E specialist) the support of the NGO specialized activities and GBV risks Specialized NGO in GBV. The ability of the Implementing Entities to respond to GBV risks will be reassessed throughout the life of the project - it will be a dynamic and evolving process in the context of the project as the risks associated with the project will be reduced. 23 Implementation Implement measures to INAE Planned The measures planned before the reduce GBV risks before the Specialized NGO start of the works will include: work begins. - Availability of locker rooms and toilets for men and women working on site and located in separate, well-lit areas, which can be closed from the inside - Panels on the project site reminding employees and local communities that GBV is prohibited on the site - Public spaces near projects will be well lit and security assessed. Page 69 of 70 The World Bank São Tomé e Príncipe Transport Sector Development and Coastal Protection Project (P161842) ANNEX 4: Map of Project Intervention Guadalupe São Tomé Page 70 of 70