Document of The World Bank Report No. 15090-BD STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT BANGLADESH RIVER BANK PROTECTION PROJECT NOVEMBER 10, 1995 Agriculture and Natural Resources Division Country Department I South Asia Region CURRENCY AND EQUIVALENT UNITS (April 1995) Bangladesh Taka 1 = US$0.0248 US$1 Tk 40.25 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES 1 meter (m) = 1.1 yards (yd) 1 kilometer (km) = 0.61 mile (mi) 1 hectare (ha) = 2.47 acres (ac) ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS BRE - Brahmaputra Right Embankment BRTS - River Training Studies of the Brahmaputra River BWDB - Bangladesh Water Development Board CAS Country Assistance Strategy CEP - Coastal Embankment Project CERP - Coastal Embankment Protection Project CF - Conversion Factor CY - Calendar Year CIDA - Canadian International Development Agency CRE - Chief Resident Engineer ERPG - Environmental and Resettlement Group (of BWDB) ERR - Economic Rate of Return FAP - Flood Action Plan FCD - Flood Control and Drainage FPCO - Flood Plan Coordination Organization GDP Gross Domestic Product GOB - Government of Bangladesh HYV - High Yielding Variety HWL - High Water Level ICB - International Competitive Bidding IDA - International Development Association LGED - Local Government Engineering Department LWL - Low Water Level LWUD - Land and Water Use Directorate (of BWDB) MoWR - Ministry of Water Resources MPO - Master Plan Organization NCB - National Competitive Bidding NGO - Non-Government Organization NPV - Net Present Value NWP - National Water Plan OED - Operations Evaluation Department, World Bank O&M - Operations and Maintenance PAP - Project Affected Person PMRU Project Management and Resettlement Unit PPAR - Project Performance Audit Report RAC - Regional Accounting Center RAP - Resettlement Action Plan RBPP - River Bank Protection Project SDR Special Drawing Right UNDP - United Nations Development Programme WARPO - Water Resources Planning Organization GOB FISCAL YEAR July 1 - June 30 -a- GLOSSARY Aman - Rice planted before or during the monsoon season (July-September) and harvested in November and December. Aus - Rice planted during March or April and harvested during June or July. Bank Erosion - A continuous process of gradual removal of soil from a river bank by water currents which eventually results in sections of the river bank collapsing into the river. Borrow Area - Area from which soil is taken to construct earthworks. Breach - A large gap in the structure or riverbank through which flood waters escape into the protected area or hinterland. Char - Sediment island in a river channel. Confluence - Location of the junction of two rivers. Cross-Bars - Embankments constructed normal to the river bank on the flood plain. District - Administrative unit in Bangladesh within the jurisdiction of a Deputy Commissioner. Embankment - Wall of compacted earth constructed parallel to a river to confine its overbank spill to the vicinity of the river bank. Embayment - A feature of river bank formed by river bank erosion having a bay-like shape or planform. Engineer - Person delegated with powers and duties to administer and supervise implementation of construction contracts based on IDA's Standard Bidding Documents. Engineer's - Person to whom some of the powers and duties of the Engineer have been Representative delegated in order to enable him/her to undertake day-to-day supervision of a contractor's work. Falling Apron - Layers of concrete blocks or rock placed on the river bed at the toe of a revetment which would roll down and protect the toe in the event of river bed erosion. Fascine Mattress - Bamboo frame with geotextile filter sheets placed on a stable river bank slope and ballasted with armor material (rock or concrete blocks). Groyne - A rigid structure built out from the shore to stop erosion by deflecting the current. The body of the groyne is the "shank" and its end is the "nose". Hydraulic Fill - Process of land reclamation or earthfill using a dredger to pump a soil-water mixture into a confined area. -b- Katcha Building - A structure made of traditional materials. Minor Irrigation - Irrigation using mechanical pumps typically in units less than 50 ha. Monsoon - Period of rains starting in June and ending in October. Polder - Low-lying land area encircled by embankments to prevent the ingress of flood waters. Pourashava - Town or municipal council. Project Proforma - An internal GOB document required to obtain authorization for inclusion of a project in the investment budget. Retirement - Replacement of a section of embankment destroyed by river bank erosion (of an embankment) by construction of a new embankment some distance further inland from the original alignment. Revetment - A facing of stone or concrete to protect an embankment from erosion. Pucca Building - Well-constructed road or building using modern masonry materials. or Road Scour - Concentrated removal of river bed material by rapid water currents. BANGLADESH RIVER BANK PROTECTION PROJECT Table of Contents Page No. CREDIT AND PROJECT SUMMARY .................................................................. (iii) 1. SECTOR AND PROJECT BACKGROUND . . A. Land and Water Sector Development Constraints .1 B Evolution of the Governrment's Sector Strategy. 5 C. Brahmaputra River Bank Protection Needs. 6 D. Bangladesh Water Development Board. 9 E. IDA's Country and Sector Assistance Strategy .12 2. THE PROJECT ...13 A. Project Objectives and Concepts .13 B. Rationale for IDA's Involvement .15 C. Project Components .16 D. Project Area .16 E. Detailed Features .16 F. Environmental Aspects .24 G. Status of Preparation and Implementation Schedule .25 H. Project Cost .26 I. Project Financing .27 J. Procurement .28 K. Disbursements .30 L. Accounts and Audit .31 3. ORGANIZATION AND MANAGEMENT .. ...32 4. PROJECT BENEFITS, ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND RISKS 36 A. Project Benefits and Beneficiaries .36 B. Economic Analysis .39 C. Economic Rate of Return. 41 D. Project Risks .41 E. Sensitivity Analysis .43 5. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOMMENDATION 44 This report is based on the findings of an IDA appraisal mission undertaken in July 1992. Mission members were Messrs. T. Herman (Task Manager), W. Schwermer, 0. Myint (IDA); E. Hakar, J. Rogge, P. Yoon, M. Hossain, S. Haque, S.M. Nurul Alam and A.I. Chowdhury (Consultants). An IDA updating mission was undertaken in January 1995 comprising Messrs. G.T. Keith Pitman (Task Manager) and H. Gassner. The report has been endorsed by Mrs. M. Nishimizu, Director, SA1DR and Mr. R. Ali, Chief, SAIAN. Peer review was provided by Messrs. I. Mobarek (SAIIN), W. Price (ASTEN) and J. McIntire (SAIAN), who reviewed the river engineering, general planning and economic aspects respectively. ii TEXT TABLES 2.1 Project Cost Estimates 2.2 Financing Plan 2.3 Methods of Procurement 4.1 Sensitivity Analysis (ERR) ANNEXES 1. Design Considerations and Criteria for River Bank Revetments 2. Design Considerations for BRE Retirement at Sariakandi 3. Resettlement Action Plan 4. Operations and Maintenance Support 5. Environmental Impact Assessment 6. Project Costs 7 Project Monitoring Indicators and Project Schedules 8. Economic Analysis 9 Reporting Requirements 10. Project Supervision Schedule I1. Project Coordination and Civil Works Management Duties 12. Selected Documents in the Project File 13. National Water Planning and Management MAPS: IBRD 27505: River Bank Protection Project IBRD 27506: Simulated Area Flooded by Merger of Brahmaputra and Bangali Rivers at Sariakandi iii BANGLADESH RIVER BANK PROTECT[ON PROJECT STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT Credit and Proiect Summarv Borrower: People's Republic of Bangladesh. Implementine Agency: Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB). Beneficiary: Not Applicable. Poverty: Not specifically focused, but flooding and river bank erosion disproportionately affect the poor who have minimal assets to buffer flood losses or involuntary relocation. Many of the poorest are former erosion victims. Amount: SDR 78.4 million (US$121.9 million equivalent). Terms: Standard, with 40 years maturity. Commitment Fee: 0.5% on undisbursed credit balances, beginning 60 days afler signing, less any waiver. Financine Plan: See Schedule A. Economic Rate of Return: The beneficiaries of the project would be the estimated 2-3 million people living in the area of potential disaster caused by the Brahmaputra breaching its right bank at Mathurapara-Sariakandi to flow down the Bangali river channel. About 125,500 urban people will be protected from severe property loss, impoverishment and physical displacement caused by river bank erosion or chronic flooding at Sirajganj and Sariakandi. Flooding of the approaches to the Jamuna Bridge would disrupt local trade. The project would protect agricultural production over an area of about 100,000 ha from annual flooding and control erosion at Sirajganj which is essential for the security of the Jamuna Bridge. Property losses prevented in the first five-year period would include 16,400 houses and shops, 75 factories, at least 9,000 traditional dwellings and considerable public infrastructure. The economic rate of return (ERR) for the project is 39%, and 45% and 35% respectively for the Sirajganj and Sariakandi- Mathurapara subprojects. The ERR does not include the national water planning or BWDB institution building component. Staff Appraisal Report: Report No. 15090-BD. Maps: IBRD No. 27505: River Bank Protection Project. IBRD No. 27506: Project Area Inundation Scenarios. Proiect Identification Number: BD-PA-9545. BANGLADESH RIVER BANK PROTECTION PROJECT 1. SECTOR AND PROJECT BACKGROUND A. Land and Water Sector Development Constraints The Physical Environment 1.1 Flooding. Bangladesh, with an area of 144,000 sq. km and a population of over 120 million, is comprised mostly of the fertile alluvial floodplains and the delta of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna river system. These three rivers combine within the country to form the world's third largest river, the Lower Meghna, which drains into the Bay of Bengal via a constantly changing network of estuaries and tidal creeks (Map IBRD 27505). The monsoon discharge of the major rivers is so large that regular spillage into the floodplain normally occurs via numerous spill channels. The high water levels in the major rivers cause drainage congestion and overbank spillage of their tributaries which is often exacerbated by runoff from coincident high local rainfall. Over the 1954-1993 period, this resulted in seasonal and fairly predictable inundation over an average of about 26,200 sq. km or about 27% of the country's net cultivable area of 95,600 sq. km. This inundation not only facilitates traditional monsoon rice (aman) cultivation, but also helps to maintain soil fertility, floodplain capture fisheries and wetlands biodiversity. However, periodic severe flooding is common: during the above 39-year period, flooding covered 37% of the territory one year out of 10, and the record was in 1988 when almost 60% of the territory was inundated. 1.2 River Bank Erosion. The combined annual average sediment load entering Bangladesh and conveyed to the Bay of Bengal via the main rivers is estimated to be about 0.77 billion tons; varying over a range of 0.45-1.84 billion tons during the period 1956-1988. A part of this sediment load is deposited on the floodplain during the flood season, gradually changing its topography and drainage conditions. Most of the sediment is deposited in the coastal areas, giving rise to land accretion and a gradually changing coastline. The large seasonal variation in river flow results in a fluctuating sediment transport capacity and causes river-bank erosion, migration of river-banks and meandering river channels. Thus, the floodplains and coastal delta are in a constant state of slow morphological change: some river channels atrophy while others become more active; some rivers merge while others gradually change their course. Recent satellite image studies of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Middle Meghna rivers under the Bangladesh Flood Action Plan (FAP) show that 106,300 ha were lost to erosion, while only 19,300 ha was accreted over the period 1982- 92. The net area of 87,000 ha lost to erosion is equivalent to an annual erosion rate of 8,700 ha, most of it agricultural land. 1.3 Saline Inundation and Cyclones. About 32% of the 27,100 sq. kn of coastal land is affected by soil salinity caused by tidal inundation, cyclone storn surges and saline groundwater. In this region, monsoon rainfall is generally sufficient to reduce topsoil salinity so that transplanted aman rice crops can be grown. Crops on the coastal fringe - not protected by coastal embankments - can be affected by saline water during exceptionally high tides, and sometimes more seriously by late or low monsoon rainfall in the southwestern districts. The southeastern coastal area is particularly vulnerable to damage caused by 2 cyclonic storms and wind-driven storm surges of up to 6 m or more. The Bangladesh coast has been hit by 14 major cyclones over the past 25 years, causing economic damage and loss of life and livestock. Vulnerability to Floods and Cyclones 1.4 Flood Vulnerability of Agriculture. The land-water complex of the deltaic alluvial floodplain has given rise to a productive agricultural economy adapted to the seasonable vagaries of flood and tidal (saline) inundation, drought, cyclones and river-bank erosion. In the past, this economy was based on predominantly subsistence agriculture: low yield broadcast (floating) aman rice and jute were the dominant crops as they were adapted to the depth, timing and duration of inundation, while floodplain fisheries provided the main source of animal protein for the rural population. Houses and hamlets were constructed on mounds raised above the average annual flood depth in each locality. Population growth led to cultivation of all available land and a decrease in farm sizes. As a result, the productivity of the traditional cropping pattern became inadequate for the growing population's requirements, and foodgrain availability became more vulnerable to damage by periodic floods. Famine sometimes occurred when severe floods were followed by drought. 1.5 In the 1950s-1960s, it was believed that crop vulnerability to flood damage could be reduced by construction of river embankments and polders, and a Master Plan was formulated in 1964 to empolder the country. It was believed that such works would promote higher aman rice production by the creation of flood-free areas. This strategy was supported by donors and led to the empoldering of over 3 million ha, or about one-third of the net cultivated area. Although investments in flood control and drainage (FCD) projects exceeded US$1 billion over a 30-year period, their contribution to increased foodgrain output was marginal. However, foodgrain production rose from 9.9 million tons in 1961/62 to nearly 19 million tons in 1990. About two-thirds of this increase came from dry season cropping made possible by the introduction of minor irrigation by tubewells and low-lift pumps, together with increased use of fertilizer and high yielding varieties (HYV) of rice. At present, about one-third of the country's net cultivated area is irrigated, of which about 93% is irrigated by privately-owned minor irrigation equipment. Thus, the vulnerability of crop production to flood damage has been reduced by the growth of reliable dry season HYV irrigated rice production. Nevertheless, given a more or less fixed cultivable area, there is a constant race between population increase and foodgrain production. 1.6 Flood Vulnerability of Non-Agricultural Sectors. Economic development has resulted in growing urban areas with commercial and manufacturing establishments and municipal service infrastructure. Investments in railways, roads, bridges, power and communications have created physical and economic links between urban and rural areas but have also led to congestion of the floodplains. Even though infrastructure was originally planned to accommodate annual inundation patterns, uncoordinated development of the floodplains and their upper catcbments over the last two decades has increased flood hazard. In consequence, the economic damage caused by major floods to both private property and public assets has increased over the years. The growing urban areas are also increasingly affected and vulnerable. The 1987 and 1988 floods resulted in severe disruption of economic activities, human hardship, and the diversion of scarce public and private resources to reconstruction and rehabilitation. It is estimated that the 1987 floods caused total damage of US$0.5 billion and those of 1988 US$1.8 billion, 1,500 were drowned and potential GDP was estimated by GOB to be reduced by 4%. 1.7 Vulnerability to Tidal Inundation, Cyclonic Storms and Surges. The tidal inundation of the populated lowlands of the coastal zone estuaries has been controlled over an area of about 10,000 sq. km to enable improved rice cultivation within polders constructed in the past 25 years under the Coastal 3 Embankment Project (CEP). While the 5,000 km. of embankments comprising the CEP polders provide protection against crop damage by high monsoon waves and minor cyclone surges, they alone cannot provide adequate cyclone protection to the growing population as sea-facing polder embankments are periodically breached by cyclone surges. The only reliable life-saving protection against major cyclone surges is a network of elevated concrete shelters which has been steadily expanded since they were first introduced on a small scale in the 1970s under the IDA-financed Cyclone Protection I Project (Cr. 339-BD). Embankments can, however, reduce the loss of lives, providing more time for people to reach cyclone shelters and some protection for those who do not make it to the shelters. A Multipurpose Cyclone Shelter Project is currently being prepared for IDA consideration with the assistance of the European Union on the basis of the Multipurpose Cyclone Shelter Master Plan financed by UNDP (UNDP Study BGD/91/025) for which IDA was the executing agency. An IDA-supported Coastal Embankment Rehabilitation Project to strengthen sea-facing embankments, is expected to be ready for presentation at about the same time as this operation. Vulnerability to River Bank Erosion alone Maior Rivers 1.8 Almost 4.3 million people lived in the active floodplain of these four rivers in 1992-93, the majority of them along the Brahmaputra-Jamuna" and Meghna. Of the total floodplain population, 1.85 million (43 percent) live on sand islands (called "chars"), and they are concentrated in the Brahmaputra- Jamuna and Meghna. In the Brahmaputra-Jamuna, they are spread along the length of the river, but in the Meghna, they are concentrated in the confluence and lower reach. These two rivers are the only ones where the island char population grew after the 1981 census. Landsat image analysis gives an estimate of almost 87,000 ha lost due to bankline erosion (net of accretion), more than 50 percent of which was along the Brahmaputra-Jamuna. On average, about 8,700 ha of mainland are lost each year to erosion by main rivers. Within-channel changes, however, result in replacement of mainland by chars: more than 50,000 ha of char accreted (net) betwveen about 1984 and 1993. 1.9 Average annual erosion rates vary greatly between rivers and river reaches. The upper Meghna is more or less stable, while the lower Meghna expericnced extensive and extreme erosion during 1984-93, particularly on the right bank. Sustained annual erosion rates of 100 meters or more over a 10-year period are notable, and occurred on both the lower Meghna and Padma, where satellite image analysis in the inventory reports reveals major changes in the river courses in this period. Differences in left and right bank erosion rates mean that the Brahmaputra-Jamuna, and to a lesser extent the Padma and Meghna, are migrating. Analysis of historic maps and satellite images shows that the Brahmaputra-Jamuna's centerline has moved an average of 4.3 km west since 1830, with a maximum westward moment of 13 km at its northem end. Analysis of a series of images from 1973-92 shows that this river is migrating westward at an average rate of 50 m per year. 1.10 The centerlines of all the rivers are moving, but all except the upper Meghna have also been widening. The Ganges has widened relatively slowly, but the Brahmaputra-Jamuna has widened over a 19-year period at well over 100 m a year averaged over its length. Given that this river course is more braided and older than the Padma, which carries the same flow, over time the same widening may occur. The effects of bankline erosion and wvidening of the river channel have been great. Analysis of population data, combined with the satellite image analysis, indicates that during the period 1981-92/93 an average of almost 64,000 people were displaced by bank erosion every year, or 728,000 people over the whole period. After entering Bangladesh, the Brahmaputra river bifurcates nonh of Jamalpur, the smaller eastem branch flowing to the east of Dhaka being named the Old Brahmaputra, the main stream which flows almost due south to join the Ganges and form the Padma, being called the Jamuna. 'hus the river from the border with India to its confluence with the Ganges is called the Brahmaputra-Jamuna. 4 More than half the displacement was along the Brahmaputra-Jamuna. This ignores changes in the chars within the changing banklines. Char erosion and accretion results in more people being displaced, and in the Brahmaputra-Jamuna it was found that 90 percent of the within-bank area had changed between char and water at least once during 1973-92. Therefore, a majority of char inhabitants are likely to have moved during this period. The growth of within-bank char areas means that some erosion victims can find a living in the chars. The study estimated the population that was displaced by erosion, but that could not have been accommodated in the charlands and instead shifted either to the charland fringe (sheltering on embankments) or left the charlands completely. According to these estimates, 187,000 people perrnanently left the Brahmnaputra-Jamuna charlands, 19,000-44,000 left the Ganges, 123,000 departed the Padma, and about 120,000 left the Meghna. Hence, an estimated 462,000 people were displaced over an 11-year period, or 12 percent of the 1981 charland population. 1.11 Brahmaputra River. Due to the periodic formation and decay of large chars and sandbars in the Brahmaputra River, constantly changing river currents attack its banks and cause erosion at apparently random locations. Such bank erosion may initially reach rates of several hundred meters per year and create an embayment in the bank several kilometers long as the river channel seeks to readjust its channel capacity to accommodate a growving char. These high bank erosion rates drop when channel capacity has been regained and/or the char stops growing or erodes. The embayment may partially accrete or remain until further erosion occurs several years later with the advent of another large semi-permanent char nearby. The rate of bank erosion on the Brahmaputra River is strongly influenced by the magnitude of flood flows: e.g., the 1987 and 1988 floods resulted in accelerated erosion at an unusually high number of localities and bank erosion rates of up to six times the annual average. At present, erosion along its west (right) bank exceeds accretion, and the river has been widening at an average rate of 126 m/year since 1981, accompanied by the annual creation of 1,960 ha of charland from sediment dumped within the channel which starts a new cycle of erosion. Erosion along the Brahmaputra right bank also periodically breaches the 180 km long Brahmaputra Right Embankment (BRE). This causes widespread flooding in an area that has enjoyed significant economic development over the past 30 years due to the flood protection provided by the embankment. 1.12 Meghna River. Along the Lower Meghna, gradual eastward bank-line retreat of several tens of meters per year has occurred. This has led to severe bank erosion at Chandpur town over the past fifty years, and has caused erosion damage to the commercial center of the town and now threatens the railway station and ferry terminal building. Breaching by erosion of the Chandpur and Meghna-Donagoda projects' embankmnents along the Lower Meghna causes flooding and reduces their development impact. The meandering Upper Meghna River transports less sediment than the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers and suffers localized bank erosion only at diverse locations due to the slow growth and decay of its sediment islands. Due to the more rapid recession of Upper Meghna flood flows, bank erosion is also caused by groundwater seepage when water levels drop quickly after the passage of a flood. Such local erosion now threatens Bhairab Bazar Town, its Railway Bridge, and the power line crossing carrying electricity to the Dhaka area from the nearby Ashuganj Power Station. The southern abutment of the new Meghna Roads and Highways Bridge on the Dhaka-Chittagong road that crosses the Meghna is also threatened by bank erosion. The recent growth of riverine market towns such as Bhairab Bazar, Chandpur and Munshiganj - with their present combined population of about 186,000 and their appurtenant riparian commercial buildings, physical infrastructure (e.g., oil and transport terminals) - now means that bank erosion is a significant and growing economic hazard. 5 B. Evolution of the Government's Sector Strateeg 1.13 The Role of IDA. IDA's 1972 Land and Water Resources Sector Study2' initially set the agenda for IDA's long-term strategy in land and water sector development in Bangladesh and helped to define and provide significant input for the Government's sectoral development strategy. The Study recommended that emphasis be given to projects that would intensify and diversify agricultural production through public investment in minor irrigation (small low-lift pumps and deep tubewells) and de-emphasized major FCD projects. It concluded that appropriate agro-technology for dry season production would reduce vulnerability to flood and drought hazards. It proposed that the monsoon production vulnerability problem should be overcome by small FCD projects. The latter approach was endorsed by a joint Government of Bangladesh (GOB) and IDA study in 1979.' While public investment in minor irrigation and subsidized fertilizer supply had been initially successful in promoting growth, by the early 1980s it became clear that widespread adoption of irrigated HYV rice production was hampered by inefficient public policies and institutions. More Government policy reforms, which were in line with IDA advice, included privatization of minor irrigation equipment and fertilizer supply. These reforms, together with the advent of cheaper shallow tubewell technology, facilitated a subsequent rapid increase in dry season rice production and attainment of rice self-sufficiency in years of normal weather.+' 1.14 A National Water Plan (NWP) completed in 1991 by a specially created Master Plan Organization (MPO), sought, inter alia, to determine the potential limits of minor irrigation in meeting the projected demand for foodgrain. UNDP financed this work, with IDA as executing agency, but neither UNDP nor IDA had control over the recommendations of the NWP. It proposed an ambitious US$4.2 billion 20-year program for construction of FCD projects to increase monsoon rice production and to complement minor irrigation development. The plan also recommended studies to establish the engineering and economic feasibility of Ganges and Brahmaputra Barrage Irrigation Projects by CY2005, and measures to control salinity in the South-West region. The NWP has several shortcomings as it did not consider: (a) institutional implementation capacity; (b) the potentially severe adverse environmental impacts of many FCD projects; (c) the efficacy of major surface irrigation schemes, especially in areas irrigable by private minor irrigation; and (d) the dwvindling dry season flows of some of the trans-boundary major rivers. Nevertheless, the NWP contributed to the development of a comprehensive planning database, scientific evaluation of water resources potential, planning strategies, a draft water code, and transformation of MPO into a permanent Water Resources Planning Organization (WARPO) in March 1992. 1.15 The NWP proposals and the issues pertaining to the formulation of a viable, sustainable and environmentally benign long-term water resources and agricultural development strategy were overshadowed by flood control concerns following the major flood of September 1988. In 1989, a wide range of solutions to Bangladesh's flood problem was proposed in a series of studies by GOB, assisted by UNDP and France, and independently by Japan, China and the U.S.A. At one extreme, a French financed study inter alia advocated the full embanking of the major rivers at a cost of about US$10 billion, while at the other extreme the US study emphasized non-structural measures. A joint GOB-UNDP study took an intermediate position, as did a Japanese-financed survey. Almost all studies, however, concluded that there was inadequate knowledge on which to base major policy and investment choices. A Communique issued by the G7 Summit of 1989 on the floods set the objective of coordinated international action as being 'to 2v Wodd BankLandandWazerResourcesSectorStudy-Banglade*; Report No. PS-13, Asia Projeds Dept., Decambr 1,1972. 3/ World Bark,Reviewofthe Bangladesh WaterDevelopmenrBaard, World Bank Report No. 2327-BD, April 2, 1979. 4/ World Bar4ck,Bangladesh - Reviewoffhe Experience wrthPol/cyRefonprsin the 1980s; Report No. 8874, June 1990. 6 find solutions to this major problem which are technicalty, financially, economically and enironmnentally sound. - At the request of GOB and the G7 Group of donors, the World Bank prepared the Flood Action Plan (FAP) Study programr' in 1989 and has since served as the program's coordinator. This coordination role includes the provision of assistance to GOB's Flood Plan Coordination Organization (FPCO) in administering the activities of the FAP Panel of Experts. FAP's five-year program consists of: (a) studies to formulate a portfolio of structural and non-structural investment projects to mitigate major flood hazards; (b) studies to formnulate a river-bank erosion control program for the Brahmaputra and Meghna Rivers; (c) various pilot projects to test innovative methods of flood and erosion control; and (d) various supporting studies to investigate social, environmental and disaster management issues arising from individual project proposals. The FAP has reviewed past FCD projects of the type proposed by NWP and has drawn attention to major deficiencies in their preparation, design, construction, operation and maintenance (O&M), and to adverse environmental effects (particularly on floodplain capture fisheries). The efficacy of some past IDA-supported FCD projects as an appropriate response to the "flood, space and food" problems of Bangladesh has also been questioned by OED.6' The draft final report of FAP, "Bangladesh Water and Flood Management Strategy" (March 1995), now recognizes that flood management has to be seen within the context of year round water management and development, and that many of the earlier technical solutions for flood control have significant problems. In consequence, GOB is planning a more integrated approach to water and flood management with particular attention being paid to enviromnental impacts, particularly fisheries, peoples' participation in project planning, implementation and O&M, and institutional strengthening. C. Brahmaputra River Bank Protection Needs Consequences of Brahmanutra River Bank Erosion 1.16 Brahmaputra Right Embankment (BRE) Breaches. Prior to the construction of the BRE, overbank spill along the 220 km right bank of the Brahmaputra-Jamuna River caused periodic flooding of an area of about 240,000 ha. The affected area stretched from the confluence with the Teesta River in the north to the vicinity of the Ganges-Brahmaputra confluence (Map IBRD 25222). It was bounded in the west by the parallel Ghagat-Karatoa-Bangali river network which drains a large portion of northwest Bangladesh. In the early 1960s, the BRE was built to mitigate this problem and to foster agricultural development in the thus protected area. The original BRE had a set-back distance of about 1.5 km from the Brahmaputra's right bank and was expected to have a life of 25-30 years. In the 1970s, the embankment started to come under sporadic erosion attack. During the mid-1980s, the frequency with which the BRE was breached by erosion increased rapidly as longer sections came within the range of rapidly eroding river bends (which can cause bank-line erosion rates of several hundred meters per year in the early stages of bend formation). To prevent further flooding, these breaches were typically closed by local BRE retirements of about 200 m. As a result of this minimal set-back distance, the BRE has been retired several times in many places, and by 1991, only 70 kmn of the original BRE survived. Currently, about 70 km of the BRE are within 500 m of the river-bank, while about 15 km are within 300 m. Hence, the embankment may be breached at many locations over the next few years, requiring the further retirement of some 70-90 km of embankment. 1.17 Population Displacement. Bank erosion along the Brahmaputra-Jamuna has a significant economic and social impact. The loss of land, crops and property has led to landlessness and Y' World Bank,Flood Control in Bangladesh-A Plan ofAcno,r, World Barnk Technical Paper No. 119, May 1990. World Bank., Bangladesh: Drainage andFlood Control Project (Cr. 864-BD); OED PPAR No. 8805, June 29, 1990. 7 impoverishment for thousands of households. The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) sponsored Irrigation Support Project for Asia and the Near East (ISPAN) study showed that out of the total population of 1.88 million living in the Brahmaputra floodplain, 450,000 live within the banklines on riverine chars, the remainder within a kilometer of the river. Over the period 1980-92, land capable of supporting 405,000 people was eroded and new charland created from the eroded sediment is estimated to be able support only 55,000 people, a net displacement of 350,000 people. Detailed study of population over the whole river shows that while many of those displaced mainlanders resettled locally (mainly as squatters), there was a net emigration of 187,000 people. A River Erosion Impact Survey of the Brahmnaputra right bank, undertaken by the University of Manitoba in the 1980s, shows that many households have been displaced several times in a generation, and that they very often end up as squatters in towns (over 30,000 in Sirajganj), and along the BRE itself. About one-third of displacees are "destitute" people, and about 20%-25% of the destitute group are female-headed households. The largest concentrations of BRE squatters are found on the retired sections of the BRE. They are made up of erosion displacees, other landless people and inhabitants of the unprotected areas in the BRE's foreland (the area between the BRE and the river channel). The consequent unauthorized bench-terracing of the embankment for dwellings weakens the BRE and reduces its value as a flood control structure. Surveys indicate that the BRE squatter population exceeds 100,000 people and attains densities of 800-900 persons per km of BRE in some locations. Based on historic rates, an estimate of the future net erosion over the next 20 years is 34,100 ha. Allowing for continued increase in population density from the 1992 level of 926 people per square kIn, it is estimated that about 578,000 people may be displaced by erosion, and 399,000 may be forced to migrate from the area. 1.18 Potential Erosion Damages and Losses. The economic value of losses to the regional economy from bank erosion along the west bank of the Brahmaputra river is considerable. Losses consist of eroded productive agricultural and urban land, severe damage to property (houses, shops, public buildings) and infrastructure (roads and bridges, power and telephone lines, and railway embankmnents). If present erosion rates are sustained, there is a strong likelihood that about 11,700 ha would be eroded in the coming 30 years in the vicinity of Sirajganj town and near Sariakandi and Mathurapara. The potential losses of 1,500 ha of the built-up area of Sirajganj are of particular concern. The town is an important administrative and trading center with a population of over 100,000. It has agro-industrial enterprises (textile, oil, sugar and jute mills) and has a river ferry terminal for Bangladesh Railways and the Inland Water Transport Authority. The town is protected from flooding by a section of the BRE which has been incorporated into existing bank stabilization works. These works were constructed in the early 1970s when erosion first threatened the town and consist of a 1.5 km concrete block revetment. When this revetment was threatened by outflanking erosion in the 1980s, the Ranigram Groyne was constructed north of the town. Both structures have performed well, but they are over 20 years old and were damaged by the severe floods of 1987 and 1988. They now need to be redesigned and reconstructed to the latest engineering standards to prevent a larger than normal flood causing widespread failure of the existing works. Failure of these protection works would result in one-third of the area at Sirajganj (500 ha) - including its commercial district - being eroded within five years. As a direct consequence, the BRE would have to be realigned behind the town leaving it exposed to major floods. Major erosion would also have dire consequences for the stability of the river-bank south of the town and the viability of the Jamuna Bridge located about 5 km downstream. Past efforts to stabilize the river at Sirajganj have resulted in the creation of a "hard-point" whereby upstream and downstream erosion have formed the town area into a groyne-like protuberance into the river which deflects erosive currents. The preservation of this "hard-point" is considered essential if outflanking erosion of the westem abutment and guide bund of the Jamuna Bridge is to be prevented. 8 1.19 Flooding Damage from BRE Breaches. When the BRE is breached by erosion, observations indicate that standing crops are lost over an area of 340400 ha in the vicinity of each breach, and soil fertility is reduced for a period of about five years by sand deposits. In addition, property and infrastructure are severely damaged. Furthermore, water pouring through a breach inundates large areas behind the BRE and adds substantially to the flow of the Karatoa-Bangali river systems (Map IBRD 25222). Thus, if a breach occurs in years of high rainfall and/or high flood levels in the Brahmaputra, overbank spill of these tributary rivers is exacerbated and larger areas are inundated. Depending on when the breach occurs, partial or total crop losses occur, while property and infrastructure are also damaged by floodwaters. Simulation studies for the period 1986-1988 indicate that the incremental area flooded by BRE breaches ranges from about 26 ha (at Betil in 1986) to about 38,300 ha (at Sariakandi and Mathurapara in 1988). 1.20 Impact of Merger with the Bangali River. As a result of erosion, the Bangali and Brahmaputra rivers are presently separated by a strip of land only about 1 km wide at Sariakandi. Without protection, ongoing erosion is expected to result in the loss of Sariakandi town (population 15,000) within five years, and the narrow strip of land separating the Bangali River from the Brahmaputra River will be completely eroded. At present, some protection to Sariakandi is provided by the Kalitola Groyne which was designed to protect against the flood flow of what was a small side channel of the Brahmaputra-Jamuna. However, with the movement of the main river westwards, the Kalitola Groyne is now in an advanced state of structural deterioration due to adjacent bank erosion. Further retirement of the BRE is not possible because of the proximity of the Bangali River. Consequently, after the breach, permanent flooding would occur until the strip is completely eroded and a merger of the Bangali and Brahmaputra riverstakes place. A merger of the two rivers would create an estimated 500-600 m wide opening about 4-5 m deep in the Brahmaputra's right (west) bank. The elevation of this opening would probably be below the low average water level of the Brahmaputra and would therefore result in perennial flow from the Brahmaputra into the Bangali River. This outflow would permanently augment the Bangali River's discharge and increase its flood potential (Map IBRD 27506). In all but average years, this would result in greater depths of inundation and larger areas flooded by the Bangali River downstream. Simulation studies of the results of such a merger, as compared to a BRE breach scenario at Sariakandi under conditions prevailing during the 1988 flood, indicate that (a) the incremental area flooded would be 71,100 ha instead of 27,000 ha; (b) flood depths would increase by about 1.0 m and last longer in the areas normally flooded by the Karatoa-Bangali river system behind the BRE; and (c) the road leading to Sirajganj would be under about I m of water for about two weeks. Not only would crop and other damage be caused in the incremental areas flooded, but damages in the Bangali River floodplain itself would also be exacerbated. Losses due to disruption of traffic as a result of road inundation and damage would also be increased. A larger and deeper inundated area would also have severe consequences on the road network leading to the Jamuna Bridge if such flooding occurred after its completion. 1.21 The hydrological simulation model describes a very optimistic scenario: it does not allow for the natural deepening and widening of the Bangali channel that would take place due to the erosion caused by the greater discharges. This greater capacity would enable an increase in the maximum outflow from the Brahmaputra and consequently larger incremental areas would be flooded in the Karatoa-Bangali floodplain for any given hydrological condition. Larger discharges would cause greater meandering of the Bangali River and a wider meander belt. This, in turn, would result in additional severe erosion of riparian land and further permanent crop, property and infrastructure losses. The above consequences of a merger of the Bangali and Brahmaputra rivers due to erosion at Sariakandi are particularly severe: they could result in economic retrogression of the area behind the BRE to conditions that existed in the 1950s, or worse. The approach roads to the proposed Jamuna Bridge could also be frequently flooded and suffer 9 damage. There are two alternative interventions which could prevent this damage. One alternative would be to prevent the erosion of the remaining strip of land betwveen the two rivers by construction of appropriate structures to protect the Brahmaputra's right bank from further major erosion. The other altemative would be to allow erosion to continue, but prevent the imminent merger by diverting the Bangali River to flow several km westward of its present alignment. Preliminary analysis indicates that this second option would require excavation of a 23-25 km long channel costing at least US$75.0 million along a meandering alignment. This channel would require acquisition of about 900-1,000 ha with all the implementation difficulties and resettlement impact that land acquisition on this scale would entail. Continuous bank erosion and meandering of this channel are to be expected, causing further economic losses and social disruption. For these reasons, the project would implement the bank protection alternative. D. Ban2ladesh Water Development Board Bangladesh Water Development Board 1.22 BWDB was established in 1972, when the former East Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority (EPWAPDA) was reorganized into two separate agencies -- the BWDB and the Power Development Board (PDB). Under the supervision of the Ministry of Water Resources (MoWR), BWDB's mandate is to plan, construct, operate and maintain projects for surface water irrigation, flood control, and drainage, including town protection and river training, throughout the country. It is also responsible for operating and maintaining about 500 completed projects ranging in size from small single-structure schemes to large multipurpose flood control, drainage, and irrigation projects. Its main sources of funding are: (a) GOB's Development Budget for the construction of new projects and rehabilitation of a large number of existing schemes; (b) the Revenue Budget for O&M of completed projects (including an allocation for debt service, taxes and arrears); and (c) the Food for Work Programme (FWP) with an allocation of wheat utilized for the repair and maintenance of existing projects, and for the construction of new schemes. Since 1972 IDA has supported BWDB's program with 15 credits, totaling about US$440 million for 1I new projects and four flood rehabilitation operations. 1.23 BWDB is managed by a six member Board comprising a Chairman, and five Members for Planning, Implementation, Operation and Maintenance, Administration, and Finance, respectively. The headquarters organization is primarily responsible for administration, finance, planning and design while construction and O&M are the responsibility of the field organization. BWDB has about 16,300 staff, of whom about 1,500 are Class I managers, engineers, and administrators, and about 14,800 are Class II, III and IV middle and lower level technical and support staff. About one third of BWDB employees are assigned to O&M. However, these staff have also been responsible for construction and rehabilitation of small projects. BWDB suffers from a number of basic problems, some of which are common to most GOB agencies and are only partly within BWDB's control. These problems include: (a) weak management and poor planning capabilities; (b) inadequate incentives and career planning for staff to perform well; (c) strong union pressures against rationalization of staffing to needs; (d) slow and complicated administrative approval procedures; (e) inadequate budgets and slow land acquisition procedures; (f) almost no cost sharing with project beneficiaries; (g) poor cost recovery; (h) inadequate community participation; and (i) lengthy procurement procedures especially for aided projects. These problems are reflected in BWDB's performance, both in planning and construction of new projects, and O&M of existing schemes. 10 1.24 Project Performance Audit Reports (PPAR), prepared for five completed IDA-financed BWDB projects", indicate that three have been successful, that one project (the Barisal Irrigation Project) has not reached its full potential, and one (Drainage and Flood Control I) is questionable. For the Drainage Project, the PPAR indicate that the assumption that incremental dry season production would not have taken place in the absence of the flood control embankment "has not yet been substantiated with appropriate impact studies." However, the PPAR also noted that the largest of the project's investments included significant non-quantifiable benefits from protecting population from periodic flooding. All the completed projects experienced serious construction delays. On average, it took about eight years to complete the schemes instead of five years as originally planned. Projects currently under construction and those more recently completed experienced similar delays, most of which occur at the pre-construction stage. There have been significant delays due to time-consuming administrative procedures for appointing consultants to prepare feasibility studies and designs. Procedures for acquiring land for construction have been long and complicated and actual acquisition of land often has been delayed because of shortage of local funds. Delays have occurred during the construction stage, due to procurement problems, insufficient budget allocations, or delays in release of funds. Poor quality of construction, due to inadequate supervision of works by BWDB staff and use of inexperienced local contractors, was a major problem in the past. In recent years, BWDB has employed local consultants on several projects to monitor construction works and help maintain quality standards. Quality of works has improved but there is still room for significant further improvement. There has also been improvement in the funding allocations for the IDA-assisted BWDB projects, which have benefited from dialogue in connection with the Public Resource Management Adjustment Credit (Cr. 236 1-BD). 1.25 Potential benefits of past investments in BWDB's projects have not been fully realized due to weaknesses in O&M resulting in deterioration of the systems. The underlying reasons for these weaknesses include: (a) inadequate budget allocations; (b) inefficient use of available funds; (c) deficiencies in BWDB's organizational arrangements, procedures and staff capabilities for O&M; and (d) insufficient participation of stakeholders. Actions to resolve these issues have been agreed under the BWDB Systems Rehabilitation Project (SRP) (Cr. 2099-BD). Of particular importance are agreements for increasing budgetary allocations for O&M, improvements in BWDB's organization for O&M, training programs for BWDB staff and beneficiaries, and measures to increase beneficiary participation in financing irrigation O&M activities. While there have been some notable improvements (expenditures on O&M doubled from FY89 to FY94) progress on institutional issues has been less than expected. However recent steps, such as the approval in August 1994 of Guidelines for Peoples' Participation in Water Development Projects, the assignment of staff to implement these Guidelines, and the development of a training program for such staff, appear to indicate renewed commitment to addressing the key issues in this field. 1.26 Organization and Management. Studies to reform BWDB's organization and management to improve execution of its functional mandate began in 1978/79 with the joint GOB-IDA review cited in para 1.13. This was followed by a 1981/82 study on "Strengthening the Organizational and Implementation Aspects of the BWDB", carried out by two BWDB task forces advised by Harza Engineering Company International. Again in June 1987, the Bank as Executing Agency for UNDP (under Project BGD/85/029) engaged the services of Sycip, Gorres, Velayo and Co., an international accounting firm to: (a) reassess the role of BWDB as a development agency for the water sector; (b) evaluate the capacity of BWDB for executing its responsibilities effectively; and (c) recommend improvements in BWDB's capabilities in (a) Chandpur Irrigation Projecl, Cr. 340-BD, PPAR Report No. 3436, dated April 30, 1981. (b) Kamafuli Irrigation Project, Cr. 605-BD, and Barisal Inigation Project, Cr. 542-BD, PPAR Report No. 6521, dated November 21,1986. (c) Muhuri Irrigation Project, Cr. 725-BD, PPAR Report No. 8654, dated May 16,1990. (d) Drainage and Flood Control Project, Cr. 864-BD, PPAR Report No. 8805, dated June 29, 1990. 11 planning and design, construction and O&M. This study was financed under the Third Flood Control and Drainage Project (Cr. 1591-BD). The study's recommendations are currently under implementation. IDA, however, believes that the changes being made will not precipitate a major improvement in BWDB's performance without basic reform of its corporate management framework. IDA maintains a dialogue with GOB about the need for such reforms in the supervision of ongoing projects and project preparation. It will also seek to identify effective reforms in a forthcoming sector review which would concentrate on institutional issues. 1.27 Since mid-1994, substantial progress has been made on long-standing institutional issues affecting BWDB. Permanent members have been appointed to BWDB's Board (previously staffed largely through "acting" assignments) and the Board's original mandate and authority as an autonomous body have been restored. Acting upon this renewed authority, the Board filled all vacant Chief Engineer positions and delegated increased authority to lower levels of BWDB staff, to permit project managers to expedite project procurement and expenditure decisions. A new accounting system, designed to make BWDB's financial transactions more transparent, has now been introduced. (The new accounting system had been designed in 1990 by consultants financed by the Canadian Intemational Development Agency (CIDA) as part of co- financing the Second Small-Scale Flood Control, Drainage and Irrigation Project (Cr. 1870-BD). Although implementation of the new system had been resisted by BWDB until mid-1994, in October 1994 BWDB applied for approval from the Planning Commission to seek technical assistance from CIDA to implement the accounting reforn program). As noted above, Guidelines for Peoples' Participation have been approved and are being implemented. Finally, BWDB established five task forces on institutional reform, whose recommendations provided the basis for reaching agreement with IDA in September 1994 on a short-term BW.DB reform program. This program concentrated on what could be accomplished over the following year, without altering the current allocation of responsibilities betveen BWDB and other institutions. The reform program included measures affecting all aspects of BWDB activities, including implementation, O&M, accounting, planning, and administration. Key measures, beyond those indicated above, include a phased program to separate staff and responsibilities for O&M and construction, so as to provide appropriate concentration on O&M, reforms in personnel planning, evaluation, and promotion policies, and introduction of multi-disciplinary project planning teams. Progress to date in implementation of the reform program is substantially on schedule. 1.28 The reform program concentrates mainly on BWDB and leaves issues involving other institutions in the water sector for further analysis. However, the program includes agreement to undertake studies on such issues, including appropriate institutional arrangements for sector analysis, project evaluation and project planning, and mechanisms for decentralization of responsibility and increasing peoples' participation in project formulation and O&M. The FAP report's institutional recommendations include a merger of the temporary organization established for FAP with WARPO, an existing, but weak, sectoral planning organization (para. 1.14). Under this project, IDA would finance technical assistance to improve sectoral planning capacity and to carry-out the medium-term studies referred to above (see para 2.27). 1.29 Although all necessary institutional reforms to BWDB and the water sector are not yet underway, the urgency for the proposed river-bank protection work makes it appropriate to proceed with this project now. Therefore, the proposed project has been designed to deal with the most immediate of the remaining problems described above, inter alia, through requiring the use of experienced, internationally recruited consultants for supervision of works, using prequalified contractors selected through ICB procedures for the civil works, and establishment of a specialized O&M unit designed to improve maintenance of project works. 12 E. IDA's Country and Sector Assistance StrateLv Country Assistance Straterv 1.30 IDA's current Country Assistance Strategy (a revised CAS is scheduled to be discussed shortly before this operation) is based on achieving the twin goals of: (i) poverty alleviation and creation of a social safetv net; and (ii) growvth in agricultural production and incomes, export-oriented manufacturing, and complementary investments in infrastructure and human resources development. These goals are to be achieved by supporting policies and projects to, inter alia, promote: efficient public investment and aid utilization, improved public administration, more efficient public enterprises in all sectors, private sector development, and investments in mitigating environmental degradation, loss of natural resources and natural hazards. IDA's portfolio management strategy includes emphasis on improvements in financial management in the water and power sectors. The proposed project is an application of GOB's conservation and hazard mitigation strategy and is included in its Five Year Development Program for the land and water sector. It would assist, inter alia, in meeting the poverty alleviation and agricultural growth objectives through averting imminent disastrous flooding. Funds for its implementation have been allocated under GOB's current Three Year Priority Investment Program. IDA has also been working closely with the aid communitv to encourage consistency of approach and to avoid duplication of effort. 1.31 Consistent with GOB's priorities, increased food production, especially rice, has been the main target of IDA's lending in agriculture with emphasis given to minor irrigation development and flood control and drainage. IDA is also assisting in the exploitation of the yet unexploited potential that Bangladesh has in the fisheries sub-sector. Given that fuel shortage and population pressure are encouraging encroachment on forests, IDA is also playing an important role in preserving forests through its lending program, e.g., financing agro-forestry activities. In addition, IDA is financing support services (e.g., research and extension) and technical assistance (e.g., in flood control). Ongoing IDA-supported agricultural projects include: Small Scale Flood Control, Drainage and Irrigation II (Cr. 1870-BD), BWDB Systems Rehabilitation (Cr. 2099-BD), Third Fisheries (Cr. 2146-BD), Agricultural Support Services (Cr. 2233-BD), National Minor Irrigation Development (Cr. 2246-BD), and Forest Resources Management (Cr. 2397-BD). A major theme in Bangladesh's agenda for encouraging sector development is expansion of private sector services to enhance efficiency. IDA has used its lending program to promote policy reforms in this direction. For example, in close collaboration with the Asian Development Bank, IDA assisted GOB in 1991 to develop a list of investments and input requirements linked to an action program for policy and institutional reformns. IDA supported this package through three projects: Shallow Tubewells and Low Lift Pumps (Cr. 2253-BD, now closed), National Minor Irrigation Development, and Agricultural Support Services. IDA has also been coordinating an international effort aimed at formulating a plan to improve Bangladesh's ability to deal with flood hazards. As described in paragraph 1.15 above, this included coordinating the work of a panel of experts assigned to oversee the implementation of the FAP studies and pilot projects. As this work draws to a close at the end of 1995, this project includes assistance to GOB (see paras. 2.27 -2.29) in developing permanent institutions for improved water sector planning, preserving the technical capability developed under FAP and making multi-disciplinary planning part of Bangladesh's normal water sector planning procedures. IDA's Involvement in River Bank Protection 1.32 In the aftermath of the 1984 and 1987 floods, the construction of revetments and groynes along the Brahmaputra right bank for protection of the BRE was supported under the First and Second Flood Rehabilitation Projects (Cr. 1587-BD and Cr. 1876-BD). BRE rehabilitation and local retirements were undertaken under the First Drainage and Flood Control Project (Cr. 864-BD) and the Third Flood 13 Rehabilitation Project (Cr. 2048-BD). Efforts to contain river-bank erosion at Chandpur and Rajashahi towns were supported under Cr. 2048-BD. Erosion mitigation works carried out under flood rehabilitation credits were undertaken on a merit and cost-effectiveness basis without requiring full economic justification. Bank protection structures funded by the above Credits have been found to be short-lived and unsustainable due to inadequate design and construction supervision, and deployment of inexperienced local contractors using inappropriate construction equipment. These contractors were not able to meet design specifications for construction in the deep waters of the major rivers, nor could they be depended upon to complete works within the dry season when water velocities and depths are at their lowest. IDA's Involvement for Water Sector Planniny 1.33 IDA has executed two national water planning projects funded by UNDP, and coordinated the FAP (see paras. 1.14 and 1. 15). Following review of the draft FAP report and earlier agreement to address the institutional weaknesses of the BWDB, it has been agreed that future water sector projects have to be formulated from a national perspective which is fully sensitive to environmental, social and stakeholders concerns and be seen to compete for scarce funds with alternative development proposals in other sectors. Overall guidance for this revitalized national water planing effort in Bangladesh will be provided by the Bank's planned Land and Water Development Strategy sector study. This will focus on the broader policy and institutional issues of sustainable land wvater and agricultural development, impacts of increased urbanization of rural areas, and natural disaster prevention and mitigation. It will analyze existing policies for water and land resources development and management, review future policy options in the light of trends and likely scenarios, and recommend guiding objectives and priorities for a comprehensive land and watcr resources development and management policy. This work will complement the TA proposed to be funded under the River Bank Protection Project to strengthen WARPO and transform it into a reformed multi-disciplinary water sector planning institution to preserve the institutional capacity and technical capability developed under FAP, and to move water sector planning beyond the formner project-by project approach. 2. THE PROJECT A. Proiect Obiectives and Concepts Project Identification and Preparation 2.1 River Training Studies of the Brahmaputra River (BRTS), funded under the Second Small Scale Flood Control, Drainage Irrigation Project (Cr. 1870-BD), focused on identifying appropriate and durable ways of protecting high priority sites from river-bank erosion. The BRTS were begun in March 1990 and consisted of two components: (a) formulation of a long-term strategy and master plan for protection of the BRE (including bank protection, river training and BRE retirement options); and (b) preparation of designs and contract documents for inimediate implementation of protection works at priority sites along the Brahmaputra right bank where the impact of erosion damage is particularly severe. OED's June 1990 PPAR of Cr. 864-BD reviews the BRE breaching problem and criticizes the ad hoc and emergency nature of breach repair by local retirements and their inadequate set-back distance from the eroding bank line. In particular, the PPAR noted that for the BRE, a "planned strategy of carefully orchestrated retreat" is needed. The BRE protection master plan prepared by the BRTS embodied this concept and recommnended planned realignment, and the phased construction of over 20 revetment structures at strategic locations along the Brahmaputra's right bank in order to limit the westward migration of the river. In contrast to previous piecemeal efforts, the studies for priority sites included geomorphological investigations, physical model testing of prototype designs and advanced engineering analysis (including the use of state-of-the-art 14 model testing of prototype designs and advanced engineering analysis (including the use of state-of-the-art mathematical models). Final site selection and design were based on defined design criteria (Annex 1) and economic justification, followed by environmental assessment, and the formulation of environmental and resettlement management plans for the selected sites. Separate reports on construction management and an O&M program were also prepared. Although the BRTS study program was formulated prior to the advent of FAP, the studies were modified and incorporated into FAP as part of FAP's bank protection and river training program. This program includes a bilateral donor-supported pilot project (component FAP 21/22) to construct prototype designs for general protection of the Brahmaputra River bankline in rural areas. These pilot works are not intended to provide long-term protection but are test structures whose performnance and failure characteristics can be studied in a short time. It is believed that the resulting evaluation may contribute to improved design of low-cost durable protection works. However, because of the imminent threat of major erosion damage and the possibility of merger of the Bangali and Brahmaputra- Jamuna rivers, GOB designated the early implementation of protection works at Sariakandi/Mathurapara and Sirajganj as national priorities. Obiectives 2.2 The project's principal objective is to prevent the erosion of riparian land at two locations on the west bank of the Brahmaputra by the construction and maintenance of improved river-bank protection works which would: (a) protect Sirajganj town's built-up and semi-urban areas from major damage and cumulative destruction; and (b) prevent the merger of the Brahmaputra and Bangali Rivers in the vicinity of Sariakandi and consequential increased regional flooding. A further objective is to assist GOB in developing permanent institutions for improved water sector planning, preserving the institutional capacity developed under FAP and making multi-disciplinary planning part of Bangladesh's normal water sector planning processes. A small component would assist BWDB's efforts to improve its accounting and management information systems. Concepts 2.3 Use of Revetment Structures. Preparatory studies concentrated on the design of a cost-effective bank stabilization structure for the Brahmaputra River that would be capable of withstanding a wide range of extreme hydraulic and erosive forces, and that would have a likely economic life of 25-30 years under an appropriate maintenance program for costly hydraulic works on major rivers. These design considerations led to the selection of single revetment structures ("hard-points") for the protection of the river-bank instead of a set of conventional groynes at Sirajganj and Mathrapara. Details of alternative designs considered and factors leading to the proposed design are given in Annex 1. Revetments are a passive form of intervention that use protective material (armnor) to stabilize a river's eroding bank which limits bank erosion to that which would occur in nature if the river encountered naturally resistant material in its bank. The designed revetment consists of a layer of geotextile filter fabric with an overlay of concrete blocks or rock of sufficient weight to resist the tractive forces of flow velocity and waves. The more active intervention of building a major complex of groynes, which deflect attacking currents from a vulnerable bank, does not work as well in the morphological context of large braided rivers like the Brahmaputra. However, existing groynes at project sites would be rehabilitated and utilized to ensure that they do not fail and thus change present current patterns or introduce major uncertainties into the planned performance of the proposed revetments. 2.4 Selection of Armor Material. The armor material for the revetments would be concrete blocks constructed from brick or gravel aggregate; quarried rock may also be used especially for revetment below 15 average low water levels. However, because of the large quantity of gravel and rock required, the materials would most likely have to be imported. Because creating a need for imported rock would provide bidders with an undesirably strong base for price negotiation, bidders will be required to price alternative Bills of Quantities based on quarried rock, brick aggregate concrete blocks, and stone aggregate concrete blocks. This procurement arrangement also allows bidders to take advantage of any particular competitive edge that they may have stemming from their access to specialized plant and materials. Although only one alternative will be selected after bid evaluation, the other two options will offer a useful basis for a variation should circumstances change and the first selection prove untenable. The use of brick aggregate, besides utilizing local materials, is expected to result in lower overall cost; however, the effect of the relatively high brick demand on local brick market prices will not be known until bids are evaluated. The use of brick aggregate will be subject to strict environmental impact mitigation controls that have been included in the specifications of the bidding documents for the bank protection works (para. 2.31). 2.5 Management and Training. The project would introduce a number of managerial and training concepts as a result of the lessons learned during IDA's past involvement in the subsector. These include: (a) implementation by competent international contractors capable of timely and efficient deployment of specialized construction equipment for undenvater revetment construction; (b) establishment, equipping and training of a specialized O&M Unit in BWDB to monitor structure performance and provide timely maintenance; and (c) assistance with O&M funding during the critical early years after the works are completed. The implementation of the proposed works would require careful quality assurance, and early identification of circumstances which could result in financial claims by contractors. Accordingly, in view of BWDB's limited experience with ICB contracts and the proposed construction technology, construction contract management and engineering supervision would be undertaken by experienced international consultants on behalf of BWDB. These consultants would be vested with the full powers and duties of "The Engineer" as specified in IDA's Standard Bidding Documents for major civil works. Technology transfer to BWDB personnel would be provided by secondment of selected BWDB engineers and technicians to the consultant's construction supervision team. Technical assistance would be provided to train the proposed O&M Unit's staff in maintenance technology and management. B. Rationale for IDA's Involvement 2.6 IDA's involvement in the proposed project stems from its past support of the flood control objectives of the BRE and protection of towns and infrastructure from erosion damage, and from its 1991 Bangladesh Environment Strategy which endorsed river-bank erosion control projects. IDA has played a leading role in supporting recent comprehensive design studies which have developed improved technology suited to river-bank erosion control for the Brahmaputra River. The scale of the economic damage and social disruption that would result from not undertaking adequate protection works prompted GOB to adopt a policy of seeking interventions to mitigate the adverse impacts of erosion of the Brahmnaputra River's west bank, and seek IDA support to undertake emergency preventive measures where erosion could have widespread regional consequences. The priority nature of the project thus justifies IDA assistance for its early implementation even though the overall FAP investment program has not yet been finalized. IDA's involvement also continues efforts initiated under FAP to improve water sector planning and promotes reaching a consensus on equitable land acquisition procedures for donor-supported public works projects. 16 C. Proiect Components 2.7 The project would have the following components: (a) Rehabilitation and construction of river-bank protection works at two sites on the Brahmaputra River's west bank, including retirement and realignment of about 8 km of the Brahmaputra Right Embankment (BRE) to link the river-bank protection works at Sariakandi and Mathurapara; (b) Land acquisition and a program of resettlement for people displaced by project works; (c) Technical assistance for implementation supervision and maintenance of works constructed under the project; (d) Establishment and initial funding of a specialized O&M Unit in BWDB to maintain the riverbank protection works constructed under the project, and procurement of vehicles and equipment for the O&M Unit; (e) Institution building technical assistance to WARPO to integrate the FAP within the framework of national water planning, produce a national water management plan and a portfolio of investment projects for the medium and long-term, and upgrade integrated water sector planning capability; and (f) Institutional capacity building technical assistance to BWDB to improve the operation of the new regional accounting centers (which includes training), and provision of equipment and transport to improve project supervision capability in the field and internal communications. The proposed project would be implemented over a five-year period starting in early CY 1996. D. Project Area 2.8 The river-bank sites to be protected are located at Sirajganj and Sariakandi/Mathurapara on the west bank of the Brahmaputra River at latitude 24°28' North and between latitudes 24°50' and 26°55' North, respectively (Map IBRD 25221). The improved project management system for BWDB applies to all its divisions countrywide. Technical assistance to WARPO will be primarily for its Dhaka headquarters with some assistance to its Regional Environmental Management Centers. E. Detailed Features River Bank Protection Works (Base Cost US$109.7 million) 2.9 Sariakandi/Mathurapara (Base Cost US$49.6million). The major civil works for this sub- project would include: (a) upgrading the existing Kalitola Groyne; (b) constructing two bank revetments 17 about 2.5 and 5.0 km downstream of Kalitola Groyne at Sariakandi and Mathurapara; and (c) constructing short earthen cross-bar embankments linking the revetments to the BRE (Annex I Figures 1 and 2). Kalitola Groyne would be rehabilitated and upgraded to serve as the upstream anchor for the stabilized reach and to provide Sariakandi town with reliable protection from erosion. In particular, the nose and shank of the existing groyne would be strengthened with appropriate armoring materials. The two revetments will consist of a straight section constructed along the existing bank line, while their upstream and downstream ends will be turned landward (into the river-bank) to prevent the revetment from being outflanked in the event of continuing erosion. The straight sections of the revetments at Sariakandi and Mathurapara will be 300 m and 500 m long, respectively. The revetment armoring will consist of concrete blocks (or rock) laid on a fascine mattress incorporating an appropriate geotextile filter. The revetment structure includes a falling apron in the form of a layer of blocks/rocks to protect its toe from scour after construction. The cross-bar embankments are to prevent overbank flow (during floods) from passing between the revetment and the BRE, and hence protect the revetments from outflanking erosion. The upstream face of the cross-bars would be protected against waves and low velocity currents by armoring with brick-filled wire baskets laid on geotextile cloth. 2.10 In order to reduce costs while achieving functional objectives, the three-structure complex of a groyne and two short revetments is not designed to prevent all further erosion along the 15-20 km bank line being protected. The spacing of the structures has been chosen after studying previous erosion patterns and embayment formation along the Brahmaputra's right bank. The selected spacing of the revetments would be adequate to ensure that the formation of subsequent embayments would not reach the Bangali River's channel. The length and termination configuration of each revetment was selected after consideration of the worst embayment platform that might occur and which could outflank a revetment based on bridge guide bund design methods. As erosion is still occurring, the exact spacings and configurations are to be finalized immediately after the monsoon season prior to revetment construction. Because of the high likelihood of the Brahmaputra breaking through to join the Bangali, the revetments are to be completed within one construction season (about 6-7 months) after the contractor's mobilization, and a stockpile of armoring materials has been assembled. This preparatory period (allowing for resettlement) is expected to last 18-24 months, so a 30-month contract period is needed. 2.11 Sirajganj (Base Cost US$53.7 million). This sub-project's major civil works would include reconstruction of the town's existing revetment, and rehabilitation and extension of the Ranigram Groyne. This involves: (a) salvaging all reusable concrete blocks of adequate size; (b) building up the river-bank profile to a geotechnically stable slope; (c) placing a modem geotextile filter protected by an armor layer of concrete blocks and/or rocks; and (d) underwater placing of the revetment toe and falling apron such that it provides protection against severe bed scour. Due to the poor structural condition of Ranigram Groyne, and to attain a least-cost design, the present 1.5 km revetment would be extended about 700 m upstream to connect with the groyne, and a new groyne nose would be constructed to serve as the upstream termination (see Annex 1, Figure 4). The extension would strengthen the bank line and enclose an embayment of about 25 ha. This area would be reclaimed from the river by hydraulic landfill and built up to the local bank elevation. The purpose of the landfill is to provide a backing to Ranigram Groyne and a safeguard against possible failure. It would also provide land for resettlement and serve a variety of public and private needs. The revetment design includes a concrete crest retaining wall and crest access road with a bitumen macadam surface for vehicular traffic. Country boat and ferry mooring facilities have also been incorporated. 2.12 In contrast to the emergency nature of the works at Sariakandi/Mathurapara, the construction of the Sirajganj revetment is to be carried out over two construction seasons. The contract period would be 18 about 30 months and is scheduled to begin in January 1996. The dry season of 1996/97 will be devoted to the salvage of usable blocks from the existing revetment, its re-construction and the completion of land reclamation. The first 18 months would be taken up by the build-up of a stockpile of armor materials (blocks and/or rocks). The November 1996-May 1997 construction seasons would be utilized for rehabilitation of Ranigram Groyne, construction of 900 m of revetment linking the groyne to the existing revetment and initial reclamation of the 25 ha landfill area behind this new revetment. The remaining revetment works would be completed in the 1997-98 dry season. Temporary works are planned to prevent damage to the first phase of the new revetment during the 1997 monsoon season. 2.13 Minor Civil Works (Base Cost US$1.4 million). Concurrent with the construction of the protection works at Sariakandi and Mathurapara, it will be necessary to undertake a proactive 8 km long retirement of the BRE (Annex 1, Figure 1). This is needed since erosion of the area between the new revetments will not be prevented but only contained, and it is expected that the recently retired section of the BRE located close to the eroding river-bank will be breached within the next two or three years. The retired embankment would be constructed by a competent local contractor using predominantly labor- intensive methods. Mechanical compaction will be required however, to achieve an acceptable structural integrity. The embankment's cross-section would be wide enough to retain a 2 m depth of standing water for several weeks. Further details of the design of the BRE retirement component are given in Annex 2. 2.14 BWDB Project Management (Base Cost US$3.5 million). Project costs include provision for BWDB engineering and administrative costs directly related to the implementation of the major and minor civil works, and the provision of transport to assist project supervision in the field This provision is estimated at 3.2% of the costs of major works (where most of the supervision workload would be handled by consultants) and 15% of the cost of minor works. 2.15 Land Acquisition (Base Cost US$0.8 million). Land acquisition would be limited to the areas occupied by the various permanent works and will not exceed 96 ha. Borrow areas will be leased for the duration of the construction period and thereafter revert to their owners. Costs of agricultural land range from Tkl60,000/ha at Sariakandi to Tk 187,000/ha for the BRE retirement and Mathurapara. Homestead land ranges from Tk 23 1,000/ha for village locations to Tk 457,000/ha for urban sites in Sariakandi. Necessary land acquisition will total about 59 ha in the vicinity of Sariakandi and Mathurapara, consisting of about 10 ha of riparian land, and about 49 ha of agricultural land. In addition, 1.2 ha of homestead land will need to be acquired. The 8 km BRE retirement (para. 2.13) will require about 27 ha of agricultural land and 1.5 ha of homestead area. At Sirajganj, the land required for reconstruction of the existing revetment is already owned by BWDB. No land acquisition is expected to be required for the 25 ha of land reclaimed along the shoreline and from the river bed. As this area will be raised to ground level and be of appreciable value as urban land, bona fide title holders are expected not to object to reclamation works. Nevertheless, a contingency provision for 8 ha of land acquisition has been provided, and 15 ha may be leased for temporary works. 2.16 BWDB will be responsible for providing all contractors with possession of the various construction sites according to the timing and provisions in the various bid documents. Therefore, BWDB must have legal possession of each site prior to issuing notices to contractors to commence work, and be in a position to assure contractors of unimpeded access to and movement within a site for construction purposes. The nature of the works is such that river access is practical, and it is BWDB's responsibility to ensure that the statutory standards of navigation are available to contractors and that the issue of permits is facilitated. Failure by BWDB to give unimpeded possession of a site as per contract will provide a legitimate basis for contractors to claim an extension of time for completion of the works. Apart from the financial 19 ramifications, this would have far-reaching consequences with regard to the actual completion date in view of the short season (about 4-5 months) when water-borne equipment for underwater revetment construction can be operated. Land acquisition has been a major obstacle to the timely implementation of previous BWDB projects, but recently there has been an improvement in that the full budgetary allocation for land acquisition has been released in the first quarter of each fiscal year. It was agreed during negotiations that land and rights to land for proiect purposes would be acquired in accordance with procedures and time schedules satisfactory to IDA and that adequate compensation for acquired land would be paid promptly in accordance with a GOB approved resettlement action plan satisfactory to IDA. These procedures specify that: (a) for all contracts awarded following ICB procedures, a Commencement Notice would only be issued if adequate working areas for preparatory operations are available at each revetment site; (b) land required for contracts awarded under NCB procedures would be taken over by BWDB before November 30 of each year; and (c) the full budgetary allocation for land acquisition would be released before September 30 of each project year. 2.17 Resettlement (Base Cost US$0.7 million). The approved Resettlement Action Plan (RAP) was prepared in October 1992 and updated based on a March 1995 resurvey. The socio-economic survey included BRE squatters affected by the Sirajganj sub-project and those likely to be affected by land acquisition for the Sariakandi/Mathurapara revetment works upstream. The total land area needed for the project is about 96 ha of which 24 percent is under housing. The total number of people requiring relocation of their homes is 1828 in 370 households. Agricultural land, but not housing, will be lost by a further 92 households, a graveyard and brick factory may have to be moved, and 122 small shops and businesses will have to be relocated. During the life of the project, it is expected that a part of the existing BRE within the protected reach on which many sqatters live will be devoured by erosion. However, the enforced resettlement of squatters for these eroded embankments is not a result of project activities. A matrix of 15 compensation entitlements for both landoNvners and non-titled Project Affected People (PAPs) has been completed in consultation Nvith IDA as the basis for project compensation to PAPs (Annex 3). Provision is made in the RAP for dissemination of information in Bengali about the project to members of the public, as well as for a local project information center. A preliminary survey of PAPs affected by the 7.8 km BRE retirement near Sariakandi/Mathurapara shows that about 28 ha of land will be needed and this may displace approximately 250 PAPs in 50 households. BWDB has agreed in the RAP to investigate and promptly settle outstanding issues related to land owvnership and alleged non-payment of compensation for earlier BWDB land acquisition at Sirajganj. For the minor works a detailed survey has not yet been completed since the precise location has not been fully determined. A Resettlement Grievance Committee will be established under the project to bring transparency to land acquisition and resettlement procedures and payments and provide impartial resolution of problems. Resettlement plans for the two major works sub-proiects and an outline plan and framework for compensation provisions for the minor works were agreed at negotiations. The resettlement plans which have been approved by GOB include provision of assistance in their implementation by consultants and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) acceptable to IDA under terrns and conditions satisfactory to IDA. 2.18 At Sirajganj the river-bank protection works will affect 159 households, 116 shops and businesses along the embankment, 25 market gardens totaling about 0.11 ha of public lands and a small graveyard. Relocation of 140 squatter households (693 people) and all the shops and businesses (which provide employment for 251 people, many of them PAPs) will be required. A redesign of the project works following the 1992 survey reduced the number of project-affected households by 35, but despite this, the total number of households affected has increased from 112 in 1992 to 140 in 1995 due to immigration. A social survey of the PAPs showed they are generally people who have become marginalized or lost their land and assets through river-bank erosion. The embankment has been colonized in clusters, and almost 20 three-quarters have been living in the same place for more than five years and a few are second generation. In terms of occupation, the squatters are dependent on work opportunities in the town or related to the river; over half the employment is provide by either rickshaw pulling or laboring on the docks, and 26% are employed in small shops and businesses. No agricultural or fishery occupations were reported. Owners of the 116 shops and businesses report that none live in the shops but most live vithin 500 meters. Fixed assets of the shops is Tk 2.7 million, and movable assets Tk 3.2 million. Annual sales are estimated at Tk 12 million and provide a total income of Tk 1.9 million, or Tk 15,550 per owner. Thus, the shops on the Sirajganj embankment make a substantial contribution to the local economy and to the operation of local society, particularly river borne traffic. 2.19 All squatter households have expressed a preference for remaining in the project area because of local employment. Thus, the RAP is based on relocated squatters being offered permanent residential sites on government land with a secure tenancy arrangement on 3.2 ha of the reclaimed landfill area near Ranigrarn Groyne, 1.5 km north of their original homes. The resettlement area will be of a "Site-and- Services" nature with basic amenities (water, public latrines, garbage containers, paths and drainage). Asked about community facilities, the displacees prioritized a mosque and a hospital, and a significant number - particularly female-headed households - put a high priority on access to schooling. The displacees will reconstruct their own shelters with materials at their disposal and financial assistance would be provided to cover the costs of transport, labor and additional building materials, and temporary loss of business. An important element of the RAP is the early construction of a building which would serve initially as a reception center for displacees in the process of moving (about 10-12 families at a time for up to one week), and ultimately as a community service building (school, mosque or clinic). The affected squatter shops are scattered and tend to be mobile according to trading opportunities, and would probably move in response to construction activities. The construction schedule implies that they need not be moved until early 1998. The RAP provides for cash compensation for the costs of moving and for disruption or temporary loss of trade. 2.20 A survey to determine PAPs was undertaken at Sariakandi, Mathurapara and Kalitola in November 1992 and updated in March 1995. The site for project works at Kalitola Groyne is well defined, and 43 PAPs in 10 households will have to be temporarily displaced for about two years. Because there will be continued river-bank erosion at Mathurapara and Sariakandi after the contractor moves to site in late 1995 and before he constructs the revetments in 1996/97, the most likely site for the permanent works was predicted from past erosion rates. Under this scenario, at Mathurapara land will be acquired which will affect 573 PAPs in 108 households, and 45 households outside the area will lose some of their land. In the worst case, 70 households, one mosque, two schools and six small shops will have to be relocated. At Sariakandi, 519 PAPs in 112 households have been identified, and even with no further erosion 71 households will be displaced by construction activities. In the worst case, an additional 41 households in Digolkandi village could be displaced, along with a brickworks which provides employment for 102 local people. The number of households affected by the BRE retirement component is provisionally estimated at 50. Once the alignment of the retired section of the BRE (para. 2.13) is resolved, a full survey would determine the impact of land acquisition on all categories of PAPs in the area so that compensation can be provided in accordance with the agreed framework of entitlements. 2.21 Many of the PAPs are former erosion victims. In Sariakandi for example, formner erosion victims form 66% of the population and are mostly employed as day laborers. In Mathurapara the majority of the PAPs are farmers followed by agricultural day laborers, and only 10-12 percent are engaged in petty trading. Sariakandi has about half of PAPs engaged in secondary occupations related to the urban area, while it is only a third in Mathurapara. Female-headed households average 5 percent and many survive as 21 servants and beggars. The RAP survey established clear preferences by asset base for those PAPs who will need to be resettled: landless households generally preferred to stay in the locality and receive title to a homestead plot rather than take a cash settlement, whereas landowners wanted cash and would move about 20 kms to Shabgram village near Bogra which houses earlier erosion forced resettlement. Thus the focus of the RAP will be to resettle the poorer landless PAPs, and unlike Sirajganj, this is proposed to be done through NGO leadership and group purchase of land. An alternative is resettlement on a berm planned for the landward side of the relocated BRE, but this would involve two moves and temporary resettlement for about 2-3 years. Works Maintenance (Base Cost US$8.6 million) 2.22 Establishment and Support of an O&M Unit (Base Cost US$3.3 million). The project would support the establishment of a specialized O&M Unit in BWDB for: (a) monitoring the condition and performance of the bank protection works implemented under the project, and planning annual maintenance needs accordingly; (b) carrying out timely routine and preventative maintenance work; and (c) maintaining a stockpile of materials for revetment repair. The Unit would also monitor river-bank line changes and hydraulic conditions in the vicinity of the wvorks that could have an impact on their security and effectiveness. The O&M Unit component of the project consists of: (a) establishment of a specialized riverbank protection works O&M Unit with its Head Office located at Sirajganj; (b) training of selected BWDB engineers and technicians in maintenance technology; and (c) the O&M Unit's estimated staff and recurrent costs for four years. Apart from monitoring and evaluation, maintenance activities would include land-based earthworks and nrver-based routine preventive works and emergency repairs. The Unit will be organized under the Superintending Engineer (O&M) at BWDB's Bogra Circle Office, and sub-divided into Head and District offices composed of specialized sub-units to execute the functions listed above. The organization of the O&M Unit will allow for expansion to cater for future protection works that may be constructed along the Brahmaputra right bank. Head Office would have overall responsibility and include a Central Services Section incorporating the Marine Survey Group, a Survey Equipment Maintenance Group, the Central Casting and Storage Yard, and a Data Analysis and Monitoring Group responsible for river platform and structural monitoring. The District office will be responsible for specifying and programming survey needs and executing the maintenance work. It would consist of a Land Survey Group, Marine Maintenance Group, and Land Based Maintenance and Storage Yard Group. Further details of the tasks, organization, equipment and proposed operational modalities of the O&M Unit are given in Annex 4. It is important that the O&M Unit be fully operational by the date that is the effective date of the Defects Liability Period of the Sariakandi/Mathurapara civil works contract. It was agreed at negotiations that by May 30. 1997 BWDB will have: (a) established and fully staffed the O&M Unit for the project works: (b) appointed consultants to assist the O&M Unit (para 2.26): and (c) procured all necessary survey and maintenance equipment specified for the O&M Unit's use (para 2.24). 2.23 Training Arrangements. Training of BWDB personnel in works supervision, quality control, instrumentation and management would be partially undertaken by secondment of selected staff to the consultant's or Engineer's construction supervision team. Contractors and equipment suppliers would be required to give practical training to assigned BWDB staff in the use of specialized instrumentation and equipment of the type to be used later in the monitoring and maintenance of the works. Payment of contractors for this service will be subject to the Engineer's certification that a satisfactory standard of training was provided. Provision has been made in the bidding documents for contractors to assist BWDB for 12 months after completion of the works, i.e., to the end of the contractual Defects Liability Period, by assigning key personnel to provide training and practical experience in monitoring and O&M. Internationally recruited technical assistance for the O&M Unit would be provided under the project for a 22 period of two years (para. 2.26). This would consist of advisors to assist the O&M Unit in planning and executing its maintenance functions, and consultants to train its personnel in executing its monitoring activities. The general procedures for O&M will be covered in an Operations and Maintenance Manual to be prepared by the implementation consultants during construction, in consultation with the contractors and BWDB. 2.24 Maintenance Equipment and Vehicles (Base Cost US$5.4 million). The project would provide for equipping the O&M Unit with specialized plant and equipment not available to local contractors; it would also provide the vehicles needed for O&M activities. Sophisticated survey equipment, including side-scan sonar and an electronic vessel positioning system, would be provided, and its maintenance would be the responsibility of the Survey Equipment Maintenance Group. Computer equipment for survey data processing will be required, as will equipment for the processing of satellite imagery. The Marine Maintenance Group will require a large 650 HP tug, as well as barges and a pontoon with a hydraulic arm for underwater placement of armor material. The principal plant item of the Land Based Maintenance Group will be a 50 ton crane to replace revetment armor materials anywhere on the revetment slope above water. A listing of the items to be procured under the project is given in Table 1 of Annex 4. Proiect Support for River Bank Protection (Base Cost US$8.4 million) 2.25 Project Support for Construction Supervision (Base Cost US$4.7 million). Contract management and site supervision for bank protection works will be undertaken by an international consulting firm experienced in design and construction of river-bank protection works. A suitably qualified staff member of the consulting firm would be vested with the full powers of the "Engineer" specified in IDA's Standard Bidding Documents, and a Resident Engineer at each site would exercise some of the Engineer's powers and duties in accordance with the provisions for an Engineer's Representative in the bidding documents. The Chief Resident Engineer would be located in Bogra and carry out overall supervision duties which constitute direct support to BWDB with respect to technical and contractual matters and issues, while the Resident Engineers would handle day-to-day engineering supervision at each site (para. 3.1). The contract management and engineering supervision for minor civil works (para. 2.13) would be undertaken by BWDB. The consultant's site supervision teams would consist of internationally recruited staff and local engineers and technicians. About one-third of the local personnel would be selected BWDB staff seconded to the consultant for training, and supervision duties on a "lien with GOB" arrangement. These staff would be under the administrative and technical control of the consultant for the period of their assignment. The assignments of individuals who do not perform satisfactorily would be terminated in consultation with BWDB, and BWDB would be responsible for their replacement. It was agreed during negotiations that the remuneration and service conditions of seconded staff would be identical to those of other local staff on the consultant's team, and the consultant would be responsible for all monthly payments reguired to service their pension plans. etc.. maintained by BWDB. BWDB also agreed to establish and implement satisfactory staff secondment arrangements. Supervision is estimated to require about 150 person-months of intemationally recruited senior experts, and about 900 person-months of local engineers and technicians. The consultancy agreement needs to be concluded no later than the date of signature of the construction contracts. IDA has agreed to BWDB's request to continue with the services of the consultants who designed the project for project implementation. It has been agreed during negotiations that construction contracts would be entered into only after siRning of a consultancy agreement for engineering supervision satisfactorv to IDA . 2.26 Project Support for Operation and Maintenance (Base Cost US$1.5 million) (Annex 4). The project will provide for internationally recruited technical assistance to the various staff levels of the O&M 23 Unit for a period of two years after its establishment. This would include: (a) a Chief Maintenance Advisor to advise on the management and planning of the O&M Units operations and activities; (b) an Engineering Advisor to advise on execution of maintenance work; and (c) a Construction Supervisor to advise the Central Casting and Storage Sub-Unit. Together wvith the initial training provided by contractors and suppliers, the above assistance would enable the O&M Unit to function independently. However, in order to properly evaluate the behavior of the revetments and the river platform, and to modify the monitoring program in response to that behavior, a different mode of training and support is required. This training would be provided by the implementation support consultants for a period of two years so that BWDB may develop the expertise to undertake future bank protection works on major rivers. The training would be provided by a full-time River Training Engineer and a part-time Hydraulic Engineer/Morphologist. The use of marine survey equipment also requires very specialized training. The total input of intemationally recruited technical assistance for maintenance support would be 72 person- months and 48 person-months of local specialists. The project would also support a contract for the execution of the initial post-construction structural, bathymetric and hydrographic surveys by internationally recruited specialists using the O&M Unit's equipment. This contract would include training of Marine Survey Group staff whilst executing these surveys. 2.27 BWDB Institutional Development and Capacity Building (Base Cost USS2.2 million). Improving BWDB's financial accountability has been a key IDA objective for several years and, following the reform program agreed in August 1994, BWDB has established 25 Regional Accounting Centers (RACs) which were to have been supported by CIDA technical assistance. However, because of scheduling problems, CIDA is unable to provide the requested assistance for at least another year and they have endorsed GOB's request to IDA to include in this project some of the technical assistance originally included in their package. In addition, BWDB computer and communications systems need upgrading to increase efficiency and enable introduction of the computers with sufficient speed and capacity to run modern project management software. Accordingly, the project has made provision for the supply of 100 computer sets (computers, printers, UPSs, maintenance and supplies) for the accounting and management information reform program, and to improve project supervision and communication in the field, 80 fax machines, five vehicles and four speed boats. To ensure that adequate training is given for the RACs, and for project management software, 42 person-months of technical assistance is to be provided. National Water Plannin2 (Base Cost US$7.9 million) 2.28 National Water Management Planning. This component will include internationally recruited technical assistance (base cost US$6.0 million), training (base cost US$0.2 million), vehicles and equipment (base cost US$1.4 million), and GOB personnel and operational costs (base cost US$0.2 million) for strengthening WARPO, an agency established in March 1992 under the MoWR which is to be enlarged by the absorption of FPCO in early 1996 and be solely responsible for strategic planning of water resources and development of investment projects. On September 11, 1995, the GOB Cabinet approved the Bangladesh Water and Flood Management Strategy which establishes WARPO as the apex national water planning organization. The principal tasks of WARPO will be to: (i) produce and periodically revise the National Water Management Plan (NWMP); (ii) ensure that planning of water resources - whether by WARPO or by other agencies - follows approved planning guidelines; (iii) ensure that all projects in the water resources sector are technically, socially, economically, financially and environmentally sustainable; (iv) prepare pre-feasibility studies for all MoWR projects and scrutinize the water sector implications of projects prepared by other agencies to ensure consistency with the NWMP and check for potential conflicts and complementarities; (v) maintain and expand the databases developed by the prior WARPO, FPCO and other agencies, and make these data accessible to outside users; (vi) maintain and develop the analytical 24 capacities developed by the prior WARPO, FPCO and under specific FAP programs; (vii) review and evaluate water sector planning and projects to provide feedback into the planning process; and (viii) become the water sector information dissemination center. Specific objectives to be achieved by year 2000 will include the creation of an effective organization capable of accounting for inter-sectoral and cross- sectoral impacts and priorities: a revised and comprehensive NWMP which integrates and further develops the results of the FAP within a coherent plan for the water resources sector as a whole; a portfolio projects for the medium term; and training to develop analytical capabilities that are necessary for continued and effective water resources planning and management. 2.29 Critical to the success of the program for strengthening of WARPO will be its ability to undertake multi-disciplinary water sector planning with sufficient authority to ensure coordinated development by all relevant departments and agencies. Experience with water sector planning suggests that WARPO will need to be substantially elevated in the bureaucracy to be fully effective. GOB and MoWR stated at negotiations that they are fully committed to enhancing WARPO's effectiveness and stature. The first step in the process will be to operationalize the institutional recommendations for water sector planning expected to be agreed betAveen GOB, NGOs and the international development community during the Intemational Conference on the FAP scheduled for November 8-9, 1995. It was agreed at negotiations that heads of WARPO's Planning, Socio-Economics, Environment. Land Resources, and Hvdrology and Engineering Directorates would be appointed with relevant qualifications and experience, as regular employees by June 30. 1996. 2.30 The technical assistance will support a team of expatriate and local consultants for three years (1996-99) to work with the MoWR at institution building and plan formulation and provide vehicles and equipment. The TA will provide two services. First, a Water Policy Advisory Group which will advise MoWR periodically, comprising five internationally renowned local and expatriate economists, institutions specialists and planners. Second, the TA will provide a multi-disciplinary team of local and expatriate consultants to work with WARPO on training and national water planning. Primary tasks will be to: (a) assist the formulation of a multi-disciplinary WARPO through the amalgamation of the prior FPCO and WARPO; (b) assist WARPO in the preparation by June 30, 1998, of a National Water Management Plan which will address planning needs, continued institutional reform and a portfolio of projects for the medium term; (c) assisting WARPO to refine the long-term national water management strategy; (d) assist WARPO in developing capability for environmental management and participatory planning; and (e) transfer technical and managerial skills and knowledge through intensive in-country and overseas training. In addition, the project would include funds to finance computers, information dissemination and logistical support of the consultants. A six member Panel of Experts (POE) would independently review work programs, strategic planning and projects to ensure adherence to sound institutional, economic, social, environmental and financial principles and criteria. No financial provision is included in this credit for the POE as GOB intends to fund this element bi-laterally following the precedent set by FAP. It was agreed at negotiations that by April 30. 1996 contracts satisfactory to IDA would be signed with a consulting firm to provide assistance to WARPO and arranzements satisfactora to IDA would be made to obtain the services of a Panel of Experts. It was also agreed that WARPO would prepare a National Water Management Plan by June 30. 1998 and provide it to IDA for comment. F. Environmental Aspects 2.31 The proposed project has been placed in environmental screening category "B" since its additional bank protection works do not create irreversible and diverse adverse physical and social impacts. Identifiable adverse impacts at each site would be confined to the implementation period, and occur 25 primarily in one or two construction seasons each lasting several months (paras. 2.10 and 2.12). These impacts can be mitigated and provisions for the Engineer to monitor such impact and enforce actions to mitigate them have been included in the bidding documents for the works (Annex 5). These provisions include nuisance control of transport to the sites, production, transport and stockpiling of materials, dredging and hydraulic fill, borrow pit operation and site clearance. Adverse impacts of the dredging and hydraulic fill operations would be localized. Model studies indicate that the fine sand displaced by dredging will cause a plume of modest concentration with a maximum spread of 1.5 km, thus leaving about 75% of the width of the river channel unaffected. The material to be dredged from the river bed is confined to the depth of normal bed sediment movement, and no disturbance of deeper material is expected. At Sariakandi/Mathurapara, a small excess of dredged material must be safely disposed of and provisions have been made in contract specifications for this requirement. There may be some seasonal disturbance of fishing as fish may migrate away from the area of construction activity. Provision is made to mitigate declining floodplain fisheries behind the BRE by including a fish pass in the section of the BRE which will be retired to enable seasonal fish migration from the Brahmaputra-Jamuna to the Bangali floodplain. For typical flood embankments, provision of sluices would be made to enable drainage of water trapped by the embankment. The 8 km retirement does not include such provisions because it will be relocated to the residual ridge of relatively high land separating the Bangali and Brahmaputra rivers, and local drainage is away from the embankment towards these rivers. 2.32 The project would require significant production of bricks for use as aggregate in the manufacture of concrete blocks to serve as revetment armor material in the event that brick aggregate is selected instead of imported gravel (para. 2.4). A large brick demand could lead to the illegal consumption of timber as kiln fuel, and thereby result in environmentally damaging deforestation. To counter this adverse development, the bidding documents include the following mitigation measures: (a) bidders are required to price for armoring not only of brick aggregate concrete blocks but also for altemative stone aggregate blocks and for dumped rock; and (b) if the brick aggregate concrete block armoring option is selected, the contract specifications provide for enforceable controls to ensure the supply of bricks only from brick fields that use coal-fired kilns. On completion of construction and the Engineer's certification that a contractor has met site reinstatement and clearance obligations, physical monitoring of the works and their impact on river platforms will be undertaken by the project's O&M Unit. This monitoring program will be developed by the consultants providing technical assistance for maintenance support who will also be required to provide training for its implementation (para. 2.25). G. Status of Preparation and Implementation Schedule 2.33 Preparation. Detailed designs, cost estimates and bidding documents have been prepared for the river-bank protection works at Sariakandi/Mathurapara and Sirajganj. Funding has been arranged (from a technical assistance provision under Cr. 1870-BD) for the design consultant to monitor river platform and morphological conditions since the 1993 monsoon season. This funding includes: (a) provision for preparation of a Resettlement Action Plan and general land acquisition survey for Sirajganj, Sariakandi and Mathurapara; and (b) evaluation of prequalification applications and bid evaluation. Advance procurement has been initiated for the two bank protection sub-projects using prequalification documents based on selection criteria in conformity with IDA's 1993 Standard Prequalification Document. Bid documents are in conformity with the IDA Standard Bidding Documents for Procurement of Works, January 1995. Prequalification evaluation has been completed by BWDB and agreement has been reached on a list of firms to be invited to submit proposals. The prequalified firms were invited in June 1995 to submit bids and these were received on August 19, 1995. IDA has no objection to BWDB's request that the existing design consultants be retained for supervision of project implementation and BWDB has received a 26 consultancy proposal for engineering supervision which is being evaluated. An Environmental Impact Assessment for project works has been prepared and reviewed by GOB and IDA. A Resettlement Plan has been prepared and all outstanding issues related to the PAP matrix of entitlements have been agreed with GOB (para. 2.17). 2.34 Implementation Schedule (Annex 7). Contracts for river-bank protection works would be awarded following ICB procedures in accordance with the January 1996 target date for Credit effectiveness. If this date is not met, the time for mobilization and material stockpiling may be inadequate to utilize the November 1996-May 1997 construction season. All civil works are planned for completion by the end of FY98 (paras. 2.10 and 2.12) while support for O&M activity would continue till Decernber 31, 2000. The WARPO assistance component would be initiated in mid-CY96 and continue for three years. The total project implementation period would therefore be about five years but would include parts of six fiscal years (FY96-FY2001). H. Proiect Cost 2.35 The total project cost is estimated at US$156.0 million equivalent, with a foreign exchange component of US$58.6 million or about 38% of the total cost (Table 2.1). The civil works base cost estimates are based on prices at appraisal, updated to April 1995, of each item in the bills of quantities included in the bidding documents. The cost estimates for minor civil works (to be carried out by local contractors) are based on the BWDB Schedule of Rates and prevailing market prices.Land and resettlement cost estimates are derived from the draft Resettlement Plan (Annex 3). The cost of works for the resettlement site for the Sirajganj sub-project has been included in the bid documents for the protection works. Cost estimates for specialized O&M equipment and plant are based on consultants' estimates of international procurement prices. The costs of consultants' services, vehicles and computers are based on recent contracts for similar services and equipment in Bangladesh. O&M recurrent costs (staff, labor, equipment, operation and transport and surveys) are based on consultants' detailed estimates of the proposed O&M Units' operations. O&M materials costs are based on the assumption that 1% of the revetment armor material (blocks, rocks, geotextile) would be replaced annually, while major preventative maintenance every 5-6 years would require about 5% of the original revetment armor material to be replaced. 2.36 The project includes an estimated US$18.5 million in taxes and duties. Price contingencies and foreign exchange rates have been estimated on the basis of current projections of local and foreign inflation. Foreign inflation is estimated at 2.6% per annum during the project period. Local inflation is estimated at rates ranging from 4% to 5% per annum during the construction period. Physical contingencies are estimated at 10% and 18% for the Sirajganj and Sariakandi/Mathurapara works, respectively. Physical contingencies for minor civil works, procurement of O&M maintenance equipment, O&M recurrent costs, and construction supervision consultants' services are estimated at 10%. A contingency of 5% was assumed for the O&M consultants' services and the WARPO technical assistance component. Physical contingencies for land acquisition and resettlement are 30% to allow for the uncertainty caused by continued river erosion. A detailed breakdown of project costs is given in Annex 6. 27 Table 2.1: Project Cost Estimates Foreign Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Exchange (Tk. million) (USS million) % 1. River Bank Protection Civil Engineering Major Civil Works 2697.3 1447.2 4144.5 67.3 36.0 103.3 35 Minor Civil Works 48.9 7.3 56.2 1.2 0.2 1.4 13 Land Acquisition 32.4 32.4 0.8 0.8 0 Resettlement 28.3 28.3 0.7 0.7 0 BWDB Project Management 143.0 143.0 3.5 3.5 0 Works Maintenance SurveyandO&MEquipment 125.5 89.7 215.2 3.1 2.2 5.3 42 O&MRecurrentCosts 38.7 43.8 82.5 1.0 1.1 2.1 53 BVDB Management 43.9 3.3 47.2 1.1 0.1 1.2 7 Technical Assistance Construction SupervisionProject Support 52.9 135.8 188.7 1.3 3.4 4.7 72 O&MProjectSupport 17.2 44.3 61.5 0.4 1.1 1.5 72 Institutional Support and Training BWDB 11.1 15.9 27.0 0.3 0.4 0.7 59 O&M Vehicles 11.4 8.2 19.6 0.3 0.2 0.5 42 Construction & Supervision Equipment 23.2 16.6 39.8 0.6 0.4 1.0 42 2. National Water Planning Institutional Buildine and Strengthening WARPO Management and Support Personnel and Operating Costs 23.6 2.5 26.1 0.6 0.1 0.7 10 Vehicles 22.6 16.2 38.8 0.6 0.4 1.0 42 Equipment 10.1 6.7 16.8 0.3 0.2 0.5 40 Technical Assistance Institutional Strengthening of WARPO 40.4 181.2 221.6 1.0 4.5 5.5 82 Training for WARPO 0.6 7.6 8.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 93 Total Baseline Cost 3371.1 2026.3 5397.4 84.1 50.5 134.6 38 Physical Contingencies 412.6 238.8 651.4 10.2 6.0 16.2 37 Price Contingencies 238.4 152.0 390.4 3.1 2.1 5.2 41 Total Project Cost - 4022.1 2417.1 6439.2 97.4 58.6 156.0 38 * Including duties and taxes of US$18.5 million equivalent I. Project Financin2 2.37 The project would be financed by IDA and GOB. The IDA Credit of SDR78.4 million (US$121.9 million equivalent) would cover about 89% of the project cost excluding taxes and duties. The recurrent costs of the completed bank protection works would be supported by IDA on a declining annual percentage basis. GOB would finance the remaining project costs, estimated at US$34.1 million equivalent. GOB's contribution would be made available through annual budget appropriations in conformance with the project implementation schedule. It was agreed at negotiations that GOB would provide adequate funds for O&M of works constructed or rehabilitated under the project based on an agreed schedule of budgetar requirements to be reviewed with the Bank each year following the establishment of the O&M Unit. GOB would have two Project Proformas for the project. The first would be for the river-bank civil works, land acquisition and resettlement, O&M, and technical assistance for institutional development of BWDB. The 28 second would be for the national water planning component. It was agreed at negotiations that GOB approval of the Proiect Proforma for the components of the project to be implemented by BWDB and MoWR approval of the draft Project Proforma for the national water plannin,e component would be a condition of Credit Effectiveness. Subseguentlv. GOB would approve the WARPO Project Proforma by February 28. 1996. Table 2.2 summarizes the project financing plan by component. Table 2.2: Financing Plan (US$ Million) IDA GOB Total 1. River Bank Protection Civil Engineering Major Civil Works 99.6 20.7 120.2 Minor Civil Works 1.4 0.3 1.7 Land Acquisition 1.1 1.1 Resettlement 0.5 0.5 1.0 BWDB Project Management 4.0 4.0 Works Maintenance Survey and O&M Equipment 2.6 3.6 6.2 O&M Recurrent Costs 1.6 0.9 2.5 BWDB Management 0.3 1.0 1.4 Technical Assistance Construction & Supervision Project Support 5.4 5.4 O&M Project Support 1.7 1.7 Institutional Support & Training for BWDB 0.7 0.7 O&M Vehicles 0.2 0.3 0.5 Construction & Supervision Equipment 0.5 0.6 1.1 2. National Water Planning Institution Buildinz and Strengthening WARPO Management and Support Personnel & Operational Costs 0.4 0.3 0.7 Vehicles 0.4 0.6 1.0 Equipment 0.2 0.3 0.5 Technical Assistance Institutional Strengthening of WARPO 6.1 6.1 Training for WARPO 0.2 0.2 Total Project Costs-k 121.9 34.1 156.0 a/ Including duties and taxes of USSI 8 5 million equivalent J. Procurement 2.38 The arrangements for procurement are summarized in Table 2.3, followed by more detailed descriptions of the procurement arrangements. A procurement schedule is included in Annex 7. 2.39 The major civil works, consisting of river-bank protection works at Sirajganj and Sariakandi/ Mathurapara, would be carried out under two contracts awarded following prequalification and ICB procedures. Bids were invited on June 18, 1995 and tenders received on August 19, 1995. The bidding documents did not include a domestic preference as no domestic contractors have the experience or 29 equipment to undertake hydraulic works of this scope or complexity. Minor civil works up to an aggregated amount of US$1.7 million consisting of 8 km of BRE retirement, including a fish-pass structure and associated cross drainage, would be carried out through NCB among qualified contractors following procedures acceptable to the Association. It was agreed at negotiations that. in addition to the use of the NCB bidding documents satisfactory to IDA. such works would be offered only to domestic contractors of Class A registration (as defined by the laws of GOB) or foreign firms meeting equivalent standards. Earthworks would be grouped into one or two contracts. and bidders for a separate contract for the fish-pass structure would be prequalified. Table 2.3: Methods of Procurement (US$ Million)!' ICB NCB Othersb' Total Civil Works: Major Civil Works 120.2 120.2 (99.8) (99.8) Minor Civil Works 1.7 1.7 (1.4) (1.4) Land Acquisition 1.1 1.1 Resettlement 0.9 0.9 Operation and Maintenance 2.0 1.8 3.8 (0.8) (0.8) (1.6) Vehicles & Equipment: Vehicles 1.6 1.6 (0.7) (0.7) Equipment 1.1 0.4 0.1 1.6 (0.6) (0.1) (0.7) Survey and O&M Equipment 6.2 6.2 (2.6) (2.6) Technical Assistance & Traininz: Consultants 13.6 13.6 (13.6) (13.6) Overseas Training 0.2 0.2 (0.2) (0.2) GOB Project Management: 5.1 5.1 (1.3) (1.3) Total 129.1 4.1 22.8 156.0 (103.7) (2.3) (15.9) (121.9) v Figures in parenthesis are amounts to be financed by IDA. ' Others includes national shopping and procurement of consultants' services under IDA procedures, and GOB procedures for land acquisition and line agency support (including force account maintenance activities). 2.40 Procurement of a survey vessel equipped for marine survey with position-fixing equipment, side scan sonar, echo sounder and data processing equipment, a tug, barges, small land survey items and vehicles for the O&M Unit valued at about US$6.2 million, vehicles and boats for BWDB valued at US$0.5 million, vehicles for WARPO valued at about US$1.1 million, and computers and fax machines for 30 BWDB valued at US$1.1 million would be through ICB procedures. The maintenance activities of the O&M Unit would be undertaken either by force account or small civil works contracts. Procurement of construction materials (geotextiles, cement, rock or stone) required for maintenance during the project period and contracts for minor O&M civil works, not to exceed US$2.0 million in aggregate, and computers and air conditioners for WARPO would be by NCB. Minor office equipment, furniture and training materials for WARPO, estimated not to exceed the equivalent of US$10,000 per contract or US$100,000 in aggregate, may be procured from time to time under contracts awarded on the basis of national shopping. Consultancy services would be procured following IDA guidelines. Terms of Reference, shortlists and draft contracts would be furnished to IDA for concurrence. IDA has agreed to GOB's request to continue the services of the consultant firm employed for project design for implementation support services. IDA review of procurement would be as follows: (a) all civil works contracts, other than contracts below US$ 200,000 for maintenance of the civil works, would be submitted to IDA for prior review; and (b) contracts for vehicles, equipment and construction materials estimated to cost in excess of US$ 200,000 equivalent, contracts for consultant's services by firms in excess of US$100,000 equivalent, and contracts for individual consultants in excess of US$50,000 equivalent would be subject to prior review. In sum, prior review would constitute over 80% of the total value of works and equipment. For other contracts, bid documents and evaluations would be retained by BWDB or WARPO and made available to IDA representatives on request. K. Disbursements 2.41 Disbursements of the IDA credit would extend over a period of about 5 years ending December 31, 2000 and would cover expenditures for: (a) 83% of expenditures on major and minor civil works; (b) 50% of resettlement expenditures, consisting of all expenditures for the resettlement of people displaced by the project and the provision of assistance to people affected by the project to reestablish them to prior standards of living but excluding the costs of government salaries, offices, and operating expenses, and compensation paid for acquisition of land or property; (c) 100% of expenditures on consultants services, net of taxes and duties, and for overseas training of selected WARPO staff, (d) 100% of foreign expenditures on directly imported equipment, vehicles and computers, or 100% of ex-factory costs for such items manufactured in Bangladesh and 70% of expenditures for such items procured locally off-the-shelf, and (e) O&M recurrent costs during the project period are to be disbursed at 85% of expenditures up to June 30, 1998, 65% of expenditures in FY99, and 45% thereafter. 31 All disbursements will be made following standard IDA documentation requirements, except for works contracts and goods contracts valued at US$200,000 or less per contract, consulting firm contracts valued at US$100,000 or less per contract, individual consultant contracts valued at US$50,000 or less per contract, and expenditures for operations and maintenance, training and resettlement for which Statement of Expenditure (SOE) procedures will be used. BWDB and WARPO will retain detailed documentation supporting SOEs for inspection by IDA supervision missions. This documentation would also be subject to audit. It was agreed at negotiations that all documents sent to IDA in support of withdrawal applications, including statements of expenditure, for civil works, resettlement, or operations and maintenance activities would have been checked and certified by the implementation or maintenance support consultants as appropriate. For the case of the river-bank protection and O&M works, the certification would include the adequacy of the quality of the works. 2.42 The disbursement schedule (Annex 6) reflects the anticipated sequence of activities in implementation and is based on the assumption that disbursement for works in one quarter would be completed in the next two quarters. The average disbursement period for water resources development projects in Bangladesh has been nine years. However, a 30-month construction period for the respective bank protection works is considered feasible in view of the use of ICB procurement for the major civil works contracts, tendering prior to Board presentation, and construction supervision by a consultant designated with the powers of the Engineer under such contracts. It is expected that the potential financial penalties incurred by either BWDB (e.g., claims) or the contractors (e.g., liquidated damages) in the case of delays in fulfilling their respective obligations under such contracts are an adequate incentive to maintain the implementation schedule.. It is also expected that contractual disputes would be resolved expeditiously by the Disputes Review Board, and that delays in land acquisition would be minimized by the project's land acquisition arrangements (paras. 2.15-2.16) and the small quantities of land to be acquired. These provisions in the project design should therefore result in disbursement of most of the available IDA Credit after three years of the five-year project period have elapsed. Delay in the implementation of the minor civil works component executed under NCB contracts would not materially affect the disbursement schedule because of its small cost. 2.43 While most of the IDA funding will be handled through the two civil works contracts and contracts for the supply of plant and equipment for the O&M Unit, and three consultancy agreements for the technical assistance sub-components (two for BWDB's project implementation and for O&M, one for national water planning under WARPO), many small discrete and periodic payments will be required for procurement of computers, O&M expenditures, etc. To facilitate small payments and ensure the availability of funds and reduce the number of withdrawal applications made to IDA, GOB would open and thereafter maintain two Special Accounts in US Dollars with the Bangladesh Bank in Dhaka. The authorized allocation for the BWDB Special Account would be US$1,500,000 equivalent, while the Special Account for WARPO would be US400,000 equivalent, each authorized allocation representing average eligible expenditure of BWDB and WARPO for four months. The Special Accounts would be replenished periodically as required, and would be used exclusively for IDA's share of the financing. L. Accounts and Audits 2.44 In line with Guidelines on Financial Reporting and Auditing of World Bank Projects, BWDB and WARPO would establish and maintain separate project-related accounts and records to identify physical progress and financial transactions relating to the project. Accounts showing individual expenditures would also be kept for all transactions for which credit withdrawals are made on the basis of statements of expenditure (para. 2.41) and the flow of funds from the Special Account (para 2.43). Auditors acceptable 32 to IDA would audit these accounts annually, including statements of expenditure and the Special Accounts. It was agreed during negotiations that audited accounts. together with auditors' comments. would be sent to IDA within six months of the close of the fiscal year (Annex 9). At present, the accounts of BWDB and WARPO are audited by the Directorate of Audits for Foreign Aided Projects of the Comptroller and Auditor General of Bangladesh. This arrangement is satisfactory to IDA. Alternatively, the accounts could be audited by external public accountants acceptable to IDA. The foregoing accounting, financial reporting and auditing arrangements should provide adequate and timely information to IDA for supervision of the project. 3. ORGANIZATION AND MANAGEMENT Proiect Implementation 3.1 Coordination and Civil Works Management. Administrative responsibility for the project's civil works construction and O&M components would rest with BWDB's Member Implementation and Member O&M respectively, and be implemented within the administrative hierarchy of each Member's line organization. A Project Director, with the rank of Additional Chief Engineer - under Member Implementation - would establish a Project Office at Bogra for the duration of the civil works contracts. He would be responsible to the BWDB for the Engineer's management of the civil works contracts and would prepare and submit all contract and construction issues requiring BWDB's approval. The Project Director would be assisted by two Executive Engineers assigned to the construction sites at Sirajganj and Sariakandi for the duration of the respective civil works contracts. To facilitate functional coordination and progress monitoring of the diverse project activities carried out by these separate administrative branches, a Project Coordinator - with the rank of Superintending Engineer - would be appointed at BWDB headquarters in Dhaka to manage a Project Implementation Unit under Member Implementation for the duration of the project. He would also serve as IDA's principal counterpart for project supervision (other than for the WARPO component) and be responsible for project reporting requirements (Annex 9). BWDB has appointed the Project Director and Project Coordinator with qualification and experience satisfactory to IDA (September 1995). The duties of the Project Director and Project Coordinator are listed in Annex 11. The WARPO national water planning component would be the administrative responsibility of the Director-General (para 2.28). 3.2 O&M Unit Establishment. Since the O&M Unit for river-bank protection works would be a permanent part of BWDB's O&M field organization, executive responsibilities for its establishment and subsequent activities would rest with Chief Engineer (O&M), Northwest Zone, located at the Rajashahi zonal office. The supervision of the O&M Unit would be delegated to the Superintending Engineer at the Bogra O&M Circle offices. The Unit's management would be under an Executive Engineer located at Sirajganj (Annex 4, Fig. 1). The Chief Engineer, Northwest Zone, would be responsible for: (a) timely recruitment and assignment of engineers and other staff to the Unit; (b) timely procurement and delivery of the Unit's vehicles and equipment (in collaboration with the Project Coordinator); and (c) timely availability of the initial funds for recurrent expenses and operations. The Superintending Engineer (O&M) would be responsible for: (a) assignment of office and yard space at Sirajganj and Sariakandi; (b) staff training and maintenance support technical assistance; and (c) normal administrative supervision of the O&M Unit's management of planning, programming and budgeting activities, and monitoring of its operational performance. Technical assistance consultants (para 2.25) would be located at Bogra and would advise and assist the Superintending Engineer (O&M) and the Unit's Executive Engineers. Further details of the O&M Unit's organization and management are given in Annex 4. 33 3.3 BWDB Institutional Development by Capacity Building. Technical assistance for institutional development of BWDB will be coordinated the Member (Finance) and Member (Administration). The Regional Accounting Centers' (RACs') technical equipment will be upgraded using equipment provided by the project, and their staff will be trained by expatriate consultants who would report to the Member (Finance). The balance of the equipment provided would be allocated by the Member (Administration) to enable upgrading of management information system. The Member (Implementation) would be responsible for coordinating transport equipment allocation to support BWDB's project implementation operations. 3.4 National Water Planning Component. The MoWR established WARPO in 1992 to be responsible for national water planning. However, with MoWR and donor interest diverted by the FAP, this new organization was not given sufficient support to establish itself as a credible national planning organization. Recognizing this weakness and the importance of sound water sector planning for project preparation, GOB has proposed in the draft Bangladesh Water and Flood Management Strategy statement of March 1995, that WARPO will be upgraded and strengthened over the period 1996-98. In addition, WARPO will absorb appropriate members of the Flood Plan Coordination Organization's (FPCO) staff when FPCO ceases in January 1996, and take on the responsibility of completing the ongoing work initiated under the FAP. WARPO is to be headed by a Director-General supported by five technical directorates (planning, socio-economics, environment, land resources, hydrology and engineering) and draw upon the services of existing institutions for specialist assistance (e.g. Surface Water Modeling Simulation Center, the Rivers Research Institute, Bangladesh Institute for Development Studies). Policy guidance and strategic direction will be provided by the National Water Council (NWC) chaired by the Prime Minister, and an inter-ministerial National Water Management Plan steering committee will periodically review WARPO's goals, objectives and annual work plan to ensure that they accord with NWC policy. Consultants provided under this credit will assist the Director-General to objectively review and evaluate past national water planning efforts and FAP, formulate and implement a medium termn work plan 1996- 1998 to produce a national water management plan, and provide training and technology transfer to make WARPO a sustainable national water planning organization. Construction Supervision 3.5 Suitably qualified internationally implementation consultants would play a major role in assisting BWDB in contract management and supervision of construction (para 2.25). The consultant designated as Engineer would maintain an office in Bogra headed by the Chief Resident Engineer (CRE) who would work with the BWDB Project Director and with district administration on land acquisition and resettlement issues. Two site offices at Sirajganj and Sariakandi, both headed by a Resident Engineer (RE), would be responsible for day-to-day construction supervision. Each RE would be designated as the Engineer's Representative and delegated with the powers and duties necessary for effective site supervision of construction activities. Details of these duties are given in Annex 10. Field operations for the minor civil works component would be carried out through BWDB's Bogra Circle office under the Circle Superintending Engineer. His responsibilities would include: organizing and supervising the surveys and investigations necessary for land acquisition; cooperation with District Land Acquisition Officers to arrange for verification of land acquisition plans; selection of contractors and award of contracts; supervision and construction quality control. These activities would also be monitored by the Project Director. Settlement of contractural disputes would be through a Disputes Review Board to be constituted for each civil works contract in accordance with the provisions of its bid documents. 34 Coordinating Committees 3.6 A Project Coordinating Committee, chaired by the BWDB Chairman, would meet at least every three months to review progress and problems and issue necessary decisions and directives. This commiittee would include the Project Director, Project Coordinator, Chief Engineer (O&M), Northwest Zone, Superintending Engineer of the Bogra O&M Circle and representatives of the various consultants engaged in implementation and maintenance supervision. In addition, project review meetings, chaired by the Additional Secretary MoWR would be held semi-annually with representation from involved agencies and ministries. District Coordinating Committees would be established in both the Sirajganj and Bogra districts. These committees would be headed by the Deputy Commissioner and include a representative of the Project Director, BWDB's Executive Engineer, the Engineer's Representatives, and representatives of government agencies affected by the project works or with whom coordination is needed. The District Commnittee would disseminate information on the project's activities in the district, serve as a focus for beneficiary comments, and assist in land acquisition and resettlement. Assurances were given during negotiations that the National Project Coordinating Committee and the two District Coordinating Committees would be constituted by November 15 1995 and meet at least every three months until all civil works construction is completed. Resettlement Plan Implementation 3.7 GOB is committed to sound resettlement policies as is demonstrated by the implementation of the resettlement plan for the Jamuna Bridge (Cr. 2569-BD) and the Second Road Rehabilitation and Maintenance Project (Cr. 2638-BD). BWDB traditionally has only had to concern itself with land acquisition through its Land and Revenue Directorate and resettlement planning was not seen as its responsibility prior to the preparation of RBPP and the Coastal Embankment Rehabilitation Project (CERP). However, following agreement between IDA and GOB in August 1994, BWDB has begun implementation of a comprehensive reform program which includes creation of an Environmental and Resettlement Planning Group (ERPG) staffed by multi-disciplinary project teams within a reorganized Land and Water Use Directorate (LWUD). The LWUD staffing plan is under review in the MoWR, and full recruitment is expected by December 1995. In the interim, BWDB has established project-specific ERPGs for Dhaka city and Bhola Phase II, and units are planned for ADB's proposed Khulna-Jessore Drainage Project, IDA's CERP and this proposed project. Staff for RBPP resettlement activities have been sanctioned by BWDB and posting is expected to be completed before October 15, 1995. In the RAP, it is recognized that the institutional reorganization generally takes longer than planned, and that the most effective and timely way to manage implementation is to place resettlement responsibilities under the management of a Deputy Director Resettlement within the Project Management and Resettlement Unit (PMRU) to manage the resettlement and rehabilitation program. Actions to facilitate implementation which have been already completed by BWDB include: (a) completion of a draft plan for multi-disciplinary staffing of the reorganized LWUD (April 1995); (b) approval of Guidelines of Peoples' Participation which includes PAPs (December 1994); and (c) revision of the Peoples' Participation Plan to allow for the hire of NGOs (December 1994); (d) appointment of all the professional staff of the Project Management and Resettlement Unit (September 1995); and (e) contracts for consulting services for the first year's resettlement program have been signed (October 1995). 3.8 The central Project Management and Resettlement Unit (PMRU) will be located in Bogra and sub- project offices will be established in Sirajganj and Sariakandi. For resettlement activities, the PMRU will be assisted by the implementation consultants which would sub-contract specific responsibilities (discussed below) to one or two NGOs. The PMRU will ensure that all affected persons are identified and extra 35 entitlements defined along with the legal minimum compensation. The selected NGOs will assist with: (a) public information; (b) providing field workers to contact affected persons and maintain detailed records for individual entitlements; (c) advising on land purchase, relocation and developing resettlement sites; and (d) serving on Grievance Committees. Because of the complcxity and confusion over land records there is considerable scope for grievance over the whole compensation process and the PMRU will establish impartial Grievance Committees in Sirajganj and Sariakandi to avoid PAPs having to make visits to the distant town of Bogra where the PMRU is located. Each committee will have at least four members: a representative of the Assistant Deputy Commissioner (Revenue) who would be Convenor, the Program Manager of the NGO, the Resettlement Public Relations Officer, and the BWDB's Sub-Divisional Engineer (Member-Secretary); additional members (e.g. local teachers, religious leaders) may be co-opted as necessary. The Grievance Committees will be formed within two months of the establishment of the PMRU and meet at least weekly, and committee expenses (including visits to PAPs and Land Record Offices), will be paid from project funds. To enable local NGOs to be contracted expeditiously for the resettlement work, BWDB have agreed to allow the expatriate Consultants (whose services have been extended to January 1996 under Cr. 1870-BD) to sub-contract NGOs directly. The contracts for their services would be extended when the implementation consultant's contract is signed. The qualifications of the selected NGO subcontractor and its responsibilities are acceptable to IDA. 3.9 The RAP contains a detailed timetable for implementation (Annex 3). In Sirajganj and at Kalitola Groyne, hand-over of land to BWDB for construction activities in the dry season of 1995-96 is scheduled to start in January 1996. To ensure vacant possession for BWDB and allow time for processing and paying compensation payments, Section 3 notices Nvere given to PAPs at Sirajganj and Kalitola Groyne by October 1, 1995 and joint verification field-work to determine the value of the land to be acquired has been completed with the participation of the implementation consultants and selected NGO. Determination of compensation by the DC and its budget estimate is scheduled to be submitted to BWDB by December 20, 1995. BWDB must then deposit funds with the DC by December 24, 1995 and full payment to PAPs is scheduled for completion by January 10, 1996. The timetable for Sariakandi and Mathurapara is equally critical, and identification of the land to be acquired can only be finalized once the monsoon floods have receded, that is by November 15. The proposal for land acquisition is scheduled to go to the DC by November 30, and complete payments of compensation to PAPs has to be completed by September 1, 1996 in order for construction to start in the fall of 1996. A six-month delay in the land acquisition process could set back construction until the following year, 1997, and greatly increase the risk of erosion and break through of the Brahmaputra-Jamuna into the Bengali river channel. Monitoring of the resettlement program (including control sites) xvill continue throughout the construction program in order to verify that none of the PAPs is made wvorse off by the project. Implementation Reviews 3.10 IDA would conduct two project supervision missions a year during the project period (Annex 10). This would include a special joint review of the WARPO component with the Government six months after completion of the inception period to assess the inception plan for WARPO to absorb FPCO and integrate FAP within the national water planning framework. To examine project progress, GOB would carry out two implementation reviews at the end of the second and fourth project years. GOB would organize the reviews and prepare terms of reference in consultation with IDA through the Project Director for the river- bank protection component and the Chairman WARPO for the national water planning component. For the nver-bank protection component, the reviews would focus on resolving bottlenecks in the civil works programs and adjusting the maintenance components in response to any performance difficulties. The first review would focus on the river-bank protection component to determine benefits from the initial experience of secondment of BWDB staff to the Engineer's supervision teams and the training provided by 36 contractors; and for WARPO, the review would examine progress in building technical capacity, development of sound criteria and standards for national water planning, and production of a prioritized portfolio of projects which are environmentally, socially, economically, financially and institutionally sound. The second review would evaluate: (a) the river-bank protection O&M Unit and any requirements for its future effective operation; and (b) assess the effectiveness of the upgraded and expanded WARPO organization. The reviews would thus provide a detailed examination of any problems encountered and make recommendations for improving project implementation and for modifying the project, if appropriate. The project consultants would participate in these reviews. It was agreed during negotiations that GOB would monitor the performance of the project in accordance with agreed perfornance indicators (Annex 10). and would undertake these implementation reviews in consultation with IDA. and revise the Project Proforma as necessary to promptly reflect project revisions agreed with IDA. 4. PROJECT BENEFITS, ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND RISKS A. Proiect Benefits and Beneficiaries 4.1 Proiect Benefits Quantifiable benefits arise from the prevention of river-bank erosion damages to land, housing and infrastructure, and local and regional flooding resulting from erosion-induced breaches of the BRE and merger of the Bangali and Brahmaputra rivers. The damages avoided are: (a) destruction of land, property and infrastructure caused by erosion; (b) resultant loss of wages to unemployment; (c) loss of crops, livestock, property and infrastructure on 400 ha near a BRE breach; (d) regional losses to crops, property and infrastructure after increased flooding due to the breakthrough of the Brahmaputra to the Bangali River at Sariakandi/ Mathurapara; (e) reduction in the value of agricultural production due to farmers changing to a more flood tolerant and low yielding cropping pattern in response to more frequent and deeper flooding; and (f) costs to repair sections of the BRE breached by river-bank erosion that would not be necessary with the project. Alternative benefits include: (i) increased efficiencies and effectiveness of water sector projects as a result of the introduction of sound water sector planning; (ii) enhanced institutional capability for project construction supervision, financial control, and for operation and maintenance; and (iii) avoidance of periodic traffic disruption caused by the flooding of the access roads to the Jamuna Bridge, and the consequent effects on the regional economy. 4.2 Project benefits for the Sirajganj project are estimated on the assumption that, in the absence of the project, the present system of ad hoc embankment retirements would continue, with eight retirements expected to be required over a 30 year period. At Sirajganj, the BRE is assumed to be breached early in the project period causing severe damage to the town. Since the BRE would have to be retired behind the town, it would be exposed to regular annual flooding. For the Sariakandi/ Mathurapara sub-project, however, in the absence of the project it is assumed not to be possible to retire the BRE following its imminent breach because the Bangali river, in effect, acts as a physical boundary for any retirement. Thus, the BRE's hinterland would be subject to regular annual flooding from the open breach. This would continue for several years until the land between the Bangali and the Brahmaputra is eroded and a merger occurs. This event would result in exacerbated regional flooding in the subsequent years. Erosion Loses Prevented 4.3 The project's river-bank protection works would protect a population of about 125,500 people from severe property loss, impoverishment and physical displacement as a result of bank erosion, and 37 7,800 ha including the urban and pern-urban areas of Sirajganj (population 104,000) and the semi-rural areas of Sariakandi and Mathurapara. The works at Sirajganj would also reclaim a 25 ha area for public use and squatter resettlement. Surveys indicate that the total property loss prevented within a five-year period would include about 16,400 masonry ("pucca") houses and shops, 75 manufacturing enterprises and at least 9,000 traditional ("katcha") dwellings. Similarly, protection would be extended to about 140 public buildings, 70 km of surfaced and unsurfaced roads (including 40 small bridges and culverts), 0.5 km of railway line and two railway bridges, and about 72 km of telephone and power lines. A severe impact on the regional economy caused by the loss of Sirajganj town would be prevented. Prevention of Severe Local Flood Dama2es 4.4 The protection works at Sirajganj would prevent, over a 30 year period, an estimated 8-9 instances of embankment breaching along a 16-19 km section of the BRE and the damages that would ensue (paras. 1.16-1.21). These breaches could adversely affect the livelihood and damage the property of about 30,000 towvnspeople and about 1,000 rural dwellers. Thc Sirajganj sub-project would also prevent less serious damage to crops, property and infrastructure over an area of 500-3,000 ha which would result from flooding beyond the vicinity of severe breaches. Since the Sirajganj BRE cannot be retired or realigned, in the event of a breach caused by the failure of the town's existing revetment, the embankment would have to be partially realigned behind the town, thus exposing it to direct flooding. Consequently, it is estimated that, in the absence of the project, an area of between 150 ha and 600 ha would be without flood protection each year in the rural area near the town as the BRE is systematically retired. At Sariakandi/Mathurapara, the severe damage resulting from one BRE breach would be prevented, protecting about 23,500 people. Prevention of Re2ional Flood Damazes Behind the BRE 4.5 The project would prevent the breach of the Sariakandi BRE that is expected to occur within the next five years, and wvhich would bc quickly followed by the merger of the Bangali and Brahmaputra- Jamuna nrvers (map IBRD 25222). The wvorks at Sariakandi and Mathurapara would protect an area of at least 300,000 ha behind the BRE in the Karatoa-Bangali river system's floodplain from the hazards of deeper annual inundation as a result of the perennial spillage from the Brahmaputra-Jamuna River into the Bangali River (paras. 1.19 and 1.20). This incremental inundation could be as much as 2.5 m in some areas during years of high flood levels in the Brahmaputra-Jamuna. The protected area includes about 100,000 ha which has been protected from flood hazards since the completion of the BRE in the late 1960s. Preventing the merger and augmented flowvs in the Bangali River would also prevent the erosion of land that would result from the further meandering of the Bangali channel in response to greater flows. 4.6 Estimates of housing protected from increased potential flood damage in the affected floodplain behind the BRE by the Sariakandi/Mathurapara sub-project include 160,000 modem and semi-modem houses and over 104,000 traditional dwellings. The transportation infrastructure protected from greater vulnerability to flood damage includes about 600 km of metalled roads, 120 km of unmetalled roads, 1,400 km of village roads and about 60 km of railway lines. The road network serving the Jamuna Bridge near Sirajganj would also be protected from inundation caused by augmentation of the Bangali River's flood discharge. There would also be greater protection against crop damage in the area behind the BRE. On an incremental area of about 100,000 ha, farmers would not reduce agricultural production because the risk of flooding would be avoided. The direct beneficiaries of the flood prevention benefits of the project would be the estimated 2-3 million people living in the potentially affected area. Regression of the regional economy to a state comparable with the physical environment existing in the 1950s, prior to the BRE's construction, would be prevented. 38 Employment Benefits 4.7 By protecting the built-up areas of Sirajganj and Sariakandi from erosion damage, the project would protect formal and non-formal wage-earners and entrepreneurs against temporary loss of employment and income as a result of destruction of manufacturing establishments and commercial enterprises. It is estimated that about 25,000 and 4,300 wage-earners in Sirajganj and Sariakandi, respectively, would be affected and that it would take these wage-earners several months to find altemative sources of employment and income. This hiatus would constitute a significant loss of value added in the local economy. The prevention of an adverse change in cropping pattern (para. 4.5) would maintain the employment of hired labor needed for the current labor-intensive cropping pattern. Fabrication of concrete blocks for the proposed works is a labor-intensive activity which could add new, albeit temporary, jobs in the vicinity of the project sites and at the many brick kilns in the region. Consultants have estimated that the employment generated by the project during the construction period would be about 40,000 person-years over a three year period. Income Distribution Effects and Poverty Alleviation 4.8 The project would have a broadly neutral effect on income distribution initially as protection from erosion and flooding would be provided to both the rich and the poor. However, there is a strong correlation between vulnerability to erosion or flood damage and income levels. Experience in Bangladesh shows that although high income groups lose considerable assets by erosion and sustain major financial damages as a result of BRE breaching, their ability to recover is relatively high and rapid. It is the lower income groups whose recovery is much slower and often only partial. Marginal farmers, in particular, having once lost their smallholdings due to erosion, or being forced to sell land as a result of financial difficulties caused by floods, never recover, migrate elsewhere and often become paupers and squatters. The project's regional flood protection benefits would therefore be particularly important to sharecroppers, landless families and marginal female-headed households. Strengthening National Water Planning 4.9 Many millions of people are affected annually by flood damage, river erosion and periodic droughts. Most of these people are in the lowest national income groupings, many of them are women and landless, and thus sound water planning leading to good water projects would have direct impacts on poverty alleviation. Over the longer term, demand for water in Bangladesh will increase rapidly in the future as the population is projected to increase by 67 percent or 72 millions by year 2025, and much of the increased population will become urbanized. Sound water planning and management is critical for the continued and accelerated growth of the agricultural sector and environmental management. It is particularly important to design investments for agricultural growth in ways to avoid damage to fisheries, which provide the main source of animal protein in the Bangladeshi diet. In particular, the poorest rely almost entirely on subsistence fisheries for their protein. It will also become increasingly important to provide safe water supplies and protection from erosion and flooding of essential infrastructure, urban and industrial areas required to secure a growing commercial and industrial base. The Bank's 1994 economic report" identifies breaking out of low aggregate demand by increased investment as the most important macroeconomic challenge facing Bangladesh. While a major emphasis is to stimulate private investment, efficient public investments in water, flood management and sanitation services can be a significant factor The World Bank,: "Bangladesh: From Stahillzation to Crowth" Report 12724-BD, March 1994 39 in creating the necessary conditions for attracting both domestic and foreign investment. The proposed project will assist GOB to develop water strategies that focus clearly on facilitating and anticipating structural changes in the Bangladesh economy, institutionalize and operationalize lessons learned from FAP studies, and through its integrated and participatory approach, avoid the harmful externalities and public resistance associated with many earlier water sector projects B. Economic Analysis Method 4.10 Details of the computation of project benefits are in Annex 8. The basis of the computation is the estimation of damages caused by bank erosion and flooding that will not occur after the project's investments have been made and properly maintained. Flood damages are generated by hydrological phenomena with a knowvn probability derived from historical data (e.g., flood levels in the Brahmaputra River). The annual crop, property and infrastructure damage caused by regional flooding through BRE breaches, and the augmentation of flows in the Bangali River induced by its merger with the Brahmaputra, were estimated in a regional simulation model based on data for the monsoons of 1986-1989. These years are typical of both normal and major flood flows in the Brahmaputra and the Karatoa-Bangali river system. Thbe simulation fumished estimates of the timing, depths and area of flooding as a result of breaches at Sariakandi/Mathurapara and Sirajganj, and for the Bangali-Brahmaputra merger. The flood damages avoided are the weighted averages of damages based on flood probabilities. 4.11 The magnitude and timing of bank erosion is much more uncertain. The estimation of the economic benefits with lower bank erosion wvas accordingly done from studies of past erosion and of the 1992 planform of the river-bankline at the project sites. The estimates of the potential total area eroded without the project are based on these studies. Principal Assumptions and Economic Parameters 4.12 The principal assumptions and economic parameters (Annex 8) underlying the estimates of benefits and costs are as follows. In general, the financial input and output prices used were based on 1991 studies of the project region and updated to 1994 prices; the financial prices were then converted to economic prices, using specific Conversion Factors (CFs) for each good established by the FAP "Guidelines for Project Assessment. " (a) Decrease in Agricultural Production. Agricultural production would decrease in the absence of the project due to: (i) of crop and livestock output lost to flooding; and (ii) changes in cropping pattern in anticipation of more frequent and deeper flooding. Estimates of the reduction in agricultural production are based on crop budgets for the present and expected future cropping patterns in the northwest region's riparian districts along the right bank of the Brahmaputra River. (b) Property and Infrastructure Damages. Property and infrastructure damages include public and private buildings, roads, and railways. The financial value of all categories of identified property and infrastructure threatened with destruction by erosion during the period 1996-2001 is their full replacement cost based on Local Government Engineering 40 Bureau standard costs. Severe flood damage to buildings was estimated as 50% of replacement value: the value of infrastructure destroyed is its full economic replacement cost. Due to the uncertainties in forecasting BRE breaches 6 to 30 years hence, severe flood damages to property and infrastructure at breach locations are calculated on the basis of damage per ha. Partial flood damage to property and infrastructure caused by regional flooding was also based on the application of unit area losses. (c) Land Values. The economic prices of agricultural land are equal to the net present value of the economic gross margin to crop production over 30 years at a 12% discount rate. The financial prices of urban and peri-urban land were estimated from representative land price data. The economic prices of such land are equal to their financial values. (d) Excluded Benefits. The benefit stream does not include the benefits from avoiding incremental damages to crops, property and infrastructure normally subject to flooding hazards within the Karatoa-Bangali floodplain. Similarly, the impact of traffic disruption caused by flooding and its effect on the regional economy was not quantified. Investment and O&M Costs 4.13 All direct costs of project works in the Sirajganj and Sariakandi/Mathurapara sub-project sites, and all indirect costs incurred by BWBD in respect of those sub-project sites, are included in the rate of return calculations. The direct costs include civil works, operations and maintenance, and engineering supervision. These allow for two replacements of all O&M specialized equipment during the project period of 30 years, and possible construction of additional protection works upstream of the project sites about four years after completion of the proposed protection works. Although not included in the financing plan of the project, the inclusion of these additional protection works in the economic analysis is considered prudent in view of the uncertainty of future erosion rates and patterns. Transfer payments for land acquisition, taxes and duties, and price contingencies were excluded from the economic investment costs. The estimated foreign exchange component of all investment costs is based on calculations of the average foreign exchange requirements for skilled and unskilled labor, machinery and equipment, cement, brick, geotextiles, transport, storage, housing, and surveys. No costs have been included for NWP activities or for improvements in BWDB's operations and communications as these are spread over much of the country and are not directly related to the operation. 4.14 Environmental Externalities. As described in paras 2.31 and 2.32, the environmental externalities of the project are very localized and transient; the majority of impacts being associated with the three-year construction period. The project does not destroy natural habitats, and the open-water capture-fisheries resources in the Brahmaputra river, while displaced a hundred or so meters from the shore by the turbidity generated during construction during the dry season, will not be affected by the project. Physical access to the water for bathing, trade, navigation and fisheries will be temporarily displaced to locations several hundred meters upstream and downstream of the project due to construction activities, but such activities in the project area are already adversely affected by river-bank instability caused by erosion. In consequence, because tiiese uses are not curtailed, such impacts were not included in the economic analysis. The fisheries benefits arising from the construction of the fish-pass in the realigned BRE cannot be quantified and were omitted from the benefit stream. 4.15 Project Fiscal Impact. While in the short-run this project will add to the GOB's development expenditure for erosion and flood protection, the chronic loss of public infrastructure to erosion and 41 property damage caused by flooding that would occur without the project - averaging about US$1.7 million per year once the project is built (Annex 8) - will more than offset the cost of operation and maintenance. At Sirajganj, land values and hence tax revenues, will increase substantially for the 25 ha area reclaimed because it will be transformed from poor quality agricultural land to high value, flood free land for commerce and housing. The annualized O&M costs represent about 4% of the FY94 O&M allocation for BWDB. GOB has been meeting its undertaking under the Systems Rehabilitation Project (Cr. 2099-BD) to increase allocations to BWDB's O&M budget by 10% annually (net of inflation). The overall GOB financial allocation for BWDB's maintenance works (excluding work financed under the food-for-work programn) has increased nine-fold since FY 1989. The national water planning component will generate water sector projects that will reduce the need for GOB fiscal support because they would incorporate socially acceptable and environmentally sustainable designs, and would benefit from enhanced beneficiary participation in their O&M. C. Economic Rate of Return 4.16 Economic analyses were carried out separately for the Sirajganj and Sariakandi/Mathurapara sub- projects, based on the benefit categories described in para.4.12. The economic rate of return (ERR) for the project is 39%, and those for the Sirajganj and Sariakandi/Mathurapara sub-projects are 45% and 35%, respectively. At a 12% discount rate, the net present value (NPV) of project incremental benefits is US$62.2 million and those of Sirajganj and Sariakandi/Mathurapara are US$21.6 million and US$40.6 million, respectively. D. Proiect Risks 4.17 Proiect Risks. The operation is subject to several risks: (a) delayed land acquisition and procurement for civil works; (b) the unavoidable risk that, during the project life, major flood flow velocities and water levels could exceed the design criteria; (c) the risk of construction cost overruns and contractors' financial claims; (d) the risk that poor standards of operation and maintenance could jeopardize the works and adequate funding may not be allocated to the O&M Unit for execution of timely routine and preventative maintenance upon termination of the project's O&M support component; (e) the risk that mismanagement of future water sector investment, operation and management could jeopardize project sustainability; and (f) the risk that continued water sector refonn and revitalized national water planning fails to achieve a portfolio of projects which are institutionally, environmentally, socially, financially and economically sustainable. (a) Delayed Land Acquisition and Procurement. This would result in an inadequate preparatory period for the contractor and consequent loss of the 1996/1997 construction season. Failure to complete the bank protection works at Sariakandi-Mathurarpara by June 1998 would significantly increase the risk of erosion of the remaining land separating the Brahmaputra and Bangali rivers and greatly increase project costs. Delays beyond five years could nullify the efficacy of the project as the Bangali may by then have become an established distributary of the Brahmaputra-Jamuna river. The project preparation schedule has addressed the implementation delay risk by advance procurement and the risk of delayed land acquisition through an agreed timetable and the fair and generous provisions of the Resettlement Plan. Risks of claims due to failure to provide contractors with timely possession of work sites have been addressed by related credit conditionality. 42 (b) Major Flood and Erosion Damage. Floods could overtop the river-bank protection works and cause either major structural damage or failure, and the high water velocities associated with such a flood could undercut the revetment through the development of scour holes in the river bed. Erosion could form embayments which outflank the works thus nullifying their protection. To minimize risk, several physical and mathematical models were applied to a 25 year simulation of local hydrology and river morphology to determine flood and scour design events, and the upstream effects on water levels of the constriction in the width of the Brahmaputra-Jamuna caused by the Jamuna Multi-Purpose Bridge and earthquake hazard were taken into account. The morphology of the river was extensively monitored and erosion trends have been determined from the analysis of maps since 1830 and satellite imagery since 1973. In consequence, the civil works have been designed to cope with historic erosion patterns and floods I m above the 1 in 100 year flood level, and for scour depths 10 m greater than that likely to occur in 1 in 100 years. The materials to be used in the river revetment works conform to the best international design practice and quality assurance monitoring will be a major component of construction management. (c) Construction Cost Overruns. Past experience has demonstrated that most BWDB projects have suffered from severe cost overruns due to: (a) inappropriate design; (b) inexperienced contractors; (c) insufficient funding to complete projects on time; and (d) poor construction supervision. To ensure construction standards and timely completion, prequalified international contractors have bid for the construction contracts under ICB conditions, and an expatriate consultant firm will be appointed as the Engineer. In addition, the operation includes provisions to improve BWDB's operational efficiency and the transparency of its accounting systems. (d) Risks of Inadequate Operation and Maintenance. The physical design and materials used in the river-bank protection works are new to Bangladesh and there is a risk that they would not be properly maintained. Inadequate financing of O&M would reduce the life of the investments requiring premature rehabilitation. O&M sustainability risks are mitigated by the funding, establishment and training of a project dedicated O&M Unit. The annualized O&M costs represent about 4% of the FY94 O&M allocation for BWDB. To counter the risk of inadequate post-project support of the O&M Unit it was agreed with GOB that they would hold annual consultations with IDA concerning the level of expenditures required for O&M of the works constructed, but our ability to enforce such agreements after project completion will be limited primarily to the leverage we can exercise in connection with future operations. However, it is very encouraging that GOB has been meeting their agreement in connection with the Systems Rehabilitation Project (CR. 2099-BD) to increase its budgetry allocation for O&M by 10% per year (net of inflation). The overall GOB financial allocation for BWDB's maintenance works (including work financed under the food-for-work program) has increased nine-fold since FY 1989. (e) Water Sector Reform and Planning. There is a risk that GOB might not continue with the water sector reform efforts once this loan is approved, nor give WARPO the independence and support it will need to ensure objective planning. A clear mandate is required to revitalize WARPO as the apex body for national water planning, upgrade and enhance its technical capability for multi-disciplinary planning, absorb continuing FAP planning within WARPO, and clearly limit the role of BWDB in sectoral planning. Failure 43 to ensure plan review by independent experts, or an unwillingness to discuss these plans with stakeholders, the public and the NGO community could result in plans and projects which are technically non-viable, and socially and environmentally unacceptable. The GOB's approval of the Bangladesh Water and Flood Management Strategy clearly demonstrates that they are committed to continued water sector reform efforts and rational and transparent planning. They have re-established WARPO as the apex national water planning organization which will integrate the findings of FAP and continuing FAP studies within the national water planning framework. During negotiations, GOB agreed to establishment of a Water Policy Advisory Group to work with MoWR and an independent Panel of Experts, appointment of key WARPO multi-disciplinary staff as regular employees; and to the appointment of an international consulting firm to assist WARPO through training in modern planning techniques. The desire within the GOB for bankable water sector projects arising from FAP studies, and the strong position taken internally by the NGOs and externally by the donors for reformed multi-disciplinary procedures in water sector planning and project selection, increases the likelihood of the program's success. A major step in this new approach to water sector planning is that GOB is placing the Bangladesh Water and Flood Management Strategy before an intemational conference of development partners, NGOs and the public in late November 1995 to reach a consensus on the strategy and the next steps, and this gives further indication that GOB's commitment to the program is strong. E. Sensitivity Analysis 4.18 The economic analysis of the river-bank protection component has been supplemented with one that considers project risks. Several tests have been conducted to determine ERR sensitivity to: (a) delays in project benefits resulting from slow implementation; and (b) increases in project costs resulting from inefficient management, higher than predicted rates of river-bank erosion, delays over land acquisition and procurement, and shortage of counterpart funds. Effects of these risks on the project's ERR are shown in Table 4.1. 4.19 The aggregate project return is not made unacceptably low by a one or two- year delay in obtaining benefits, but the ERR of the Sirajganj sub-component falls to quite low levels with a two or three-year delay. At a 3 year delay, the aggregate return is 13%. These results underscore the neccessity for a speedy project completion. The aggregate return falls to 23% with a 25% cost increase and to 16% with a 50% increase. The effect of cost overruns at Sirajganj is particularly strong, as a 50% increase would render that sub-project economically non-viable. Increases in project costs are most likely to occur because of substantial river-bank erosion and scour which would occur if the project start-up is delayed by procurement problems or difficulties over land acquisition, hence the emphasis given to these subjects in project design. Additional Protection Works 4.20 Projections of future annual bank erosion are based on historic averages. However, the formation of new chars upstream of the project works may accelerate erosion and require additional protection works in the future. This contingency could require a third revetment north of Kalitola Groyne at Sariakandi to prevent a merger with a nearby meander loop of the Bangali river. At Sirajganj, this would require rehabilitation and extension of the Salibari Groyne several km upstream of the existing Ranigram Groyne. The costs of possible second phase works were therefore included in the sensitivity analysis, although they 44 are not included in the financing plan of the project. As seen in Table 4.1, additional costs for protection works at Sirajganj would reduce the estimated ERR to 40%. Additional works at Sariakandi/Mathurapara would reduce the estimated ERR to 28%. The corresponding value for the entire project would be 32%. Table 4.1: Sensitivity Analysis (ERR) (%) SIRJGANJ SARIAKANDI- TOTAL MATHURAPARA ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... Baseline Analysis 45 35 39 RISK A. Delay in project benefits (years) 1 18 26 23 2 10 22 17 3 6 19 13 B Additional protection works 40 28 32 C. Increase in total project cost 25% 19 25 23 50% 10 19 16 5. AGREEMENTS TO BE REACHED AND RECOMMENDATION 5.1 During negotiations, agreement was reached with GOB on the following points: (a) Land acquisition schedule and procedures including resettlement and compensation arrangements which would be carried out in accordance with a Resettlement Action Plan (paras. 2.16 and 2.17); (b) Establishment and staffing of the O&M Unit, appointment of maintenance support consultants and procurement of survey and maintenance equipment (para 2.22); (c) Appointment of contract management and supervision consultants with terms of reerence acceptable to IDA not later than the date of signature of the first river-bank protection contract, and secondment of selected BWDB personnel to the consultants' supervision team (para. 2.25); (d) Appointment of key WARPO multi-disciplinary staff by June 30, 1996 (para. 2.29); (e) Appointment, by April 30, 1996, of a consulting firm and members of the Panel of Experts to assist in strengthening national water planning and to prepare a National Water Management Plan by June 30, 1998 (para. 2.30); (f) Hold annual consultations on expenditure required for O&M of project works and provision of adequate funds for this purpose during the project and after completion (para. 2.37); (g) The Project Proforma for the national water planning component of the project would be approved by February 28, 1996 (para. 2.37); 45 (h) Limiting contractors under NCB tenders for civil works construction to contractors registered as Class A (or the equivalent) for completion of earthworks in no more than two contracts and prequalification of contractors for the fish-pass structure (para. 2.39); (i) All disbursement applications for civil works, resettlement or operations and maintenance activities to be certified by the implementation support or maintenance support consultants (para. 2.41); (?j) Arrangements with respect to project accounting and auditing (para. 2.44); (k) The constitution and meetings of project coordinating committees (para. 3.6); and (I) Arrangements for and a schedule of implementation reviews (para. 3.10). 5.2 Conditions of Effectiveness would be GOB approval of Project Proforma for the components to be implemented by BWDB and the MoWR approval of the draft WARPO Project Proforma (2.37). 5.3 With the above conditions and agreements, the Project would be suitable for an IDA Credit to the People's Republic of Bangladesh of SDR 78.4 million (US$121.9 million equivalent) on standard IDA terms with a maturity of 40 years. Keith Pitman M:AKEITHPITSAR2DOC October 28, 1995 03:57 PM ANNEX 1 Page 1 of 11 BANGLADESH RIVER BANK PROTECTION PROJECT Design Considerations and Criteria for River Bank Revetments A. Local River Bank Stabilization Structures Functional Considerations 1. River bank stabilization, whether by groynes or revetments, is appropriate at areas where the consequences of continuing erosion are particularly serious. Examples of such cases are Sirajganj, where the existing revetment and groyne, themselves examples of river bank stabilization, are at risk of failure and further measures are required. The approach adopted will depend on the degree to which stabilization is to be imposed. At the most rigorous, the bankline is to be completely defined and for this purpose some form of revetment is the appropriate treatment; this is usually applicable to a relatively short stretch of bankline (e.g., up to 2 kIn) where a concentrated area is to be protected, such as at Sirajganj. If the exact bankline configuration is not important but there are fixed limits on the extreme positions that the bankline may adopt relative to the mean line (such as at Sariakandi/ Mathurapara), then some form of intermittent erosion resistant structure is appropriate. This may take the form of groynes or revetments. Disadvantages of Groynes 2. Groynes are defined as hardened structures that protrude into the main channel, with the primary objective of deflecting erosive currents away from the bankline. By their nature, groynes move the centroid of the channel away from the original bankline and thus, unless complementary groynes are provided on the opposite bank, erosion of the other bank will usually take place to an equal extent. The concept that groynes result in a net land gain may therefore be illusory. Groynes are in general significantly costly to build because they have to be constructed in deep flowing water and also because their flanks are exposed to high velocity flows during high river stages. The protection offered by a groyne is generally not more than a distance equal to 1.0-1.5 times its length on both its upstream and downstream sides, i.e., only 2.0-3.0 times its length. Extensive bank protection therefore requires a series of groynes. Advantages of Revetments 3. Revetments differ in concept in that there is no attempt to actively deflect the river. The objective is to hold the bankline at suitable intervals and to allow it to take up its natural shape in between. Until bank erosion ceases, there would be some continuing loss of land but this will be substantially less than would have occurred without the intervention. The spacing between the revetments will be deternined by the maximum depth of embayment that may be permitted between the structures. Revetments are typically constructed with their river face in line with the existing bank: this simplifies construction. After an upstream embayment has formed, the hydraulic conditions at the upstream portion (nose) of the revetment will become much the same as that of a groyne, but the exposure to the highest velocity flows will normally be limited to the nose alone, since there is no exposed flank to protect. Provision must, however, be made to ANNEX 1 Page 2 of 11 prevent out-of-bank flow from scouring a channel on the land side of the hardened structure which could result in outflanking. This is most simply and inexpensively achieved with an earth embankment perpendicular to the revetment crest, known as a "cross-bar", with light protection on the slopes against wave action. Performance of Previous River Training Works 4. On the Brahmaputra, a considerable investment has been made in bank stabilization measures over the past 20 years. Although now at risk, the only example of relative success is the Sirajganj town protection consisting primarily of multiple layers of randomly dumped concrete cubes. The protection of Sariakandi by means of the Kalitola groyne may be considered a partial success in that the erosion was controlled for long enough to see the main point of attack move further downstream. Both these structures suffer from the absence of a durable filter layer. Past works have been only partially successful and the inference is that the approach to design and construction currently followed will suffice for moderately aggressive conditions, but will not provide the level of performance required under the more severe conditions. In this respect, it is significant that the size of protective block required to resist flow drag was inadequate. The high velocities that can be induced round the noses of groynes and the upstream terminations of revetments therefore demand larger blocks than could be easily manhandled. This has not been possible in the past due to the equipment limitations of local contractors. 5. The size of blocks is not the only potential cause of failure. The uniformly graded sand of which the bank and bed is composed has very low strength and transport resistance. The turbulent flow induced by the protective blocks will tend to draw the sand easily through the coarse material of dumped blocks; pore pressures in the bank during falling stages will exacerbate this tendency resulting in rapid slumping of the underlying material and its consequent exposure to the full force of the current as the protective layer subsides. Traditional brick aggregate filters would be ineffective under these conditions, even if they could be placed to a specification. Finally, there is the major problem of controlling the distribution of blocks when placed in depths of more than 1 Om and with local flow velocities of more than 1.0 m/s and high turbidity. Because of the high material cost, there was a natural tendency to place only the minimum number of blocks necessary. Under such conditions, uneven coverage is almost inevitable, and it requires only one exposed area to initiate a progressive failure of the whole system. Given these constraints and difficulties, the low success rate for structures built in accordance with the normal BWDB practice is only to be expected. B. Design Concepts Requirements for Improved Performance 6. The essential features required for improved performance of revetments include: (a) A formed slope that is designed to be stable under normal combined earthquake loading and bank groundwater drawdown conditions. (b) A geotextile fabric laid on the slope that is designed to permit drainage of the underlying soil while preventing migration of soil particles under differential pressures induced by wave action, turbulent river currents and soil-water flow. ANNEX I Page 3 of 11 (c) An armor layer designed to hold the geotextile firmly in place and therefore capable of resisting the forces induced by high velocity flow and wave action. The armor must be sufficiently robust and durable to withstand abrasion due to sediment laden water and armor element movement. (d) An apron, commonly called a falling apron or launching apron, consisting of armor material placed at the toe of the slope. This acts as a stockpile that is drawn upon through a natural bed armoring process when unusually deep scour develops off the toe of the revetment. Structural Durability 7. It is self-apparent that, for the conditions encountered on the Brahmaputra, designing bank stabilization works for performance under anything other than severe conditions, cannot be cost effective. By definition, the locations that are identified as requiring priority attention are those where the hydrodynamic and morphological conditions are in, or close to, the severe category. For such works to survive for even one season, the design must be such that the costs involved will be measured in hundreds of millions of Taka, or millions of dollars. With this level of investment, the works can only be justified if they have a life expectancy measured in tens of years. This in turn implies that the works must be designed to survive under the most severe conditions that may reasonably be expected to occur during that period. The highly mobile river bed and the potentially high flow velocities combine to forrn a demanding environmnent in which to construct works, and the design must reflect these conditions in order that the structure may meet the functional requirements in practice. The works were, therefore, designed in such a manner that they will perform satisfactorily under the worst combination of hydrodynamic and morphological conditions that may be experienced for a hydrological event with a 100 year return period' exceeded once in a hundred years on the average, over a design life of at least 20-30 years, and require relatively low maintenance during this period. This period was used in calculating the probability of exceedance of design conditions and for assigning design values to key parameters such as scour depth and near bank velocity. Because of the turbidity of the Brahmaputra water, even at times of low flow, and the rapid deposition of sediment during flow recession, much of the works will remain invisible under normal circumstances. It is therefore particularly important that the portion of the works below low water level is robust and that if local failure does occur, this does not lead to rapid progressive failure. Some displacement of armor material (e.g., concrete blocks) is always expected to occur, but with timely routine and periodic maintenance, progressive failure is not expected. Use of Local Resources for Construction and O&M 8. Where possible and practicable, the designs for the works allowed for a maximum use of local labor and materials. Since the routine maintenance will certainly be geared to local labor and material, this requirement has led to the selection of brick aggregate concrete blocks as the preferred principal material for the armor layer for all slope protection exposed to the main river flow. The large scale manufacture and handling of blocks by labor intensive means is well established and appropriate for the smaller size (55 cm). For the larger sizes (72 and 85 cm), some form of mechanical handling will be required, but the casting can remain labor intensive. Alternative forms of armor material that would be functionally appropriate include boulders, 1 A one hundred year return period event means that the events magnitude would only be ANNEX 1 Page4of 11 quarried rock and stone aggregate concrete blocks. Boulders are available from the Shylhet area of Bangladesh, but there are only limited quantities of the larger sizes required to satisfy the Brahmaputra conditions and this cannot be considered as a reliable source for this scale of works. Quarried rock is only available from India, Bhutan or further afield and the uncertainty of supply has to be offset against the greater durability potential, and possibly marginally better performance, of rock. Stone aggregate concrete has a higher density than concrete made with brick aggregate: block dimensions can therefore be reduced and some savings in cement thereby achieved, but this advantage will normally be offset by the higher cost of the imported stone. 9. In situations where the forces acting on the revetment are less severe and maintenance is more easily undertaken, for example on the slopes of cross-bars, brick in wire baskets would be used. This form of protection makes maximum use of local material and resources but is not suitable for the more arduous conditions to which the main bank revetment is exposed. The other major elements of revetment construction are the supply and laying of the geotextile filter and the dredging. Both these require heavy plant and, in the case of the geotextile, imported material. Planned Maintenance 10. Although the design of the revetment and other works is in accordance with criteria that are chosen to minimize maintenance, it is anticipated that some local failures will occur that require timely maintenance. It has been assumed that after the first season of exposure to monsoon flows it will be necessary to place an additional 5% of blocks where weaknesses have been exposed. Thereafter, the replacement rate should drop to about 1% or 2% per year, with a periodic maintenance requiring about 5% of blocks every 5-6 years. The source of blocks for the first year will be the stockpile prepared by the contractor as per the requirements of the bid documents. Mooring Facilities 11. Existing arrangements for mooring vessels of all sizes from cargo vessels and ferries to country boats are of a rudimentary nature. Ferries have pontoons moored to the bank to provide an intermediate platform of fixed height relative to water level, but other vessels typically moor up against the natural bank, wherever the deep water channel happens to be located at the time. At Sirajganj this informal mooring extends from the most downstream portion of the existing bank revetment for a distance of about 1 km. The standard revetment design includes country boat steps. For the continuous revetment at Sirajganj, country boat steps are provided at approximately 500m intervals in addition to the passenger ferry terminal which will replace the existing facility. ANNEX 1 Page S of 11 C. Design Considerations Geotechnical Factors 12. Liquefaction. The river bank soils are primarily micaceous fine to medium silting sands, loose near the surface, generally finest at the surface and becoming coarser with depth. Previous geotechnical investigations have indicated that soils at Sirajganj and elsewhere along the Brahmaputra were prone to liquefaction from design earthquakes to depths of 17m-21m. Loose, fine, cohesionless deposits may also liquefy under non-dynamic loads, depending on their relative density and initial state of stress. Investigations carried out for this project tend to confirm that some strata are sufficiently loose and at an initial state of stress from which liquefaction could ensue. The bulk of the data, however, shows the soils to be in a condition that is not conducive to liquefaction occurring. For the conditions prevailing on the right bank of the Brahmaputra, the relatively low risk of failure due to liquefaction would not appear to justify the technical difficulties and high cost of densification. 13. Pinin2 and Erosion. Seepage forces during periods when river levels are falling will cause piping in the fine soils of the project sites unless suitable filters are provided. The most essential area in need of a filter are the river bank slope areas where seepage forces are greatest during the failing stage of the river. However, there will be seepage forces occurring down to the river bed and pumping action due to turbulent flow around the block protection will induce particle migration. Protection over the full length of the revetment is therefore required if stability of the slope is to be assured. Under these circumstances there would appear to be no alternative to the provision of a suitably designed geotextile filter: such filters have been incorporated in the design of the works. Availability of Materials 14. The only potential construction materials that are readily available in the immediate vicinity are the fine uniformly graded river sand and locally produced bricks. Cement is manufactured in Bangladesh, but for the quantities involved and the tight time schedules to be met, it will be necessary to rely on imported cement. River-worn shingle and large cobbles are available from the Panchargarh area in Bangladesh in quite large quantities although insufficient for the proposed works. Various grades of stone and crushed rock are imported in large quantities from India across the border at Hili. Geotextiles will have to be imported. Morphological Considerations 15. The morphological considerations fall into two main categories: (a) the range of bed bathymetry that may occur in the immediate vicinity of any river training or bank stabilization works, particularly the maximum scour depth that may develop; and (b) the dynamics of channel and bankline planform, which will determine the location of works, their planform dimensions and the geometry of the structures' terminations. ANNEX 1 Page 6 of 11 The first of these categories has been investigated through a combination of bathymetric surveys at the project sites at different times of the year, mathematical modeling, physical modeling and analysis of morphological statistics. The scope for statistical analysis is limited by the availability and quality of data. However, sufficient data has been obtained for setting up and verifying the mathematical and physical models, which were then used to extend the information to cover specific situations of interest. The mathematical modeling has been used to gain clearer understanding of the processes associated with bend and confluence scour and the bifurcation of flow around chars. Physical modeling was used both to complement the modeling with regard to the prediction of flow fields and amplification factors and to investigate effects such as the scour associated with groynes and the stability of structural units. For the second category of morphological considerations, the principal source of information was the analysis of historic records, including naps dating back to 1830, and the more recent satellite imagery. The latter provided an almost sequential data set for the period since 1973, which has proved invaluable for char and bend evolution analysis. The maps provided the bankline movement data over the longer period required in order to establish trends that are relevant to the timescale of the intervention measures. Construction "Windows" 16. The design and stabilization and training works must take into consideration their constructability in the Brahmaputra river environment. In particular, it is important to determine the period or "window" during which underwater construction can take place. Since the works are to be constructed in flowing water in the vicinity of locations where active erosion is taking place, this means that the local flow velocities will generally be high. To maintain a high level of construction control in flow velocities which may exceed 3.5 m/s would make the task an order of magnitude more difficult, and therefore the construction that much more costly, if not impossible. The cross-sectional data that has been collected for the BRTS was therefore analyzed to determine the period of time during which different flows would not be exceeded for varying probabilities. It was found that for a mean channel velocity of 0.7 n/s, corresponding to a maximum probable point velocity of about 1.4 m/s, the length of the period available for underwater construction was between 150-200 days. In fact, it is found that even if a somewhat larger velocity was considered acceptable this would make comparatively little difference to the length of the "window". Method of Construction 17. The revetment cross-section has to satisfy the two requirements of working at not too great a depth, and providing adequate protection against scour. The structures are protected against scour by a falling (or launching) apron, i,e., armoring placed on the river bed, or at a specific dredged level, and extending further into the river from the toe of the revetment. In the event of scour occurring close to the structure, the "reservoir" of armor material will be displaced and will form a protective layer on the scoured slope, inhibiting further erosion. The scoured slope is expected to be of the order of one vertical: two horizontal, considerably steeper than the formed slope of the structure (IV:3.5H). There is thus a balance to be struck between: (a) stability of the structure, which would call for a deeper apron; (b) minimizing the height of the steeper slope above maximum scour depth, and the practical difficulties in dredging at greater depths; and (c) placing the geotextile at such depths, and retaining the necessary control over distribution of armoring (which is more difficult at greater depths, especially considering the poor visibility ANNEX I Page7of 11 which will prevail). With an estimated scour depth of 29m below high flood level (HFL) near revetment structures, the apron setting has been put at 19-20m below HFL. This means that during the construction season when the river is low, dredging depth and the maximum working depth will be of the order of 13-14m. D. Design Criteria Hydrological 18. The standard hydrological design event is one with a 100 year return period. A 25 year simulation was used to derive the design water levels at the project locations with specified confidence limits. Such confidence limits do not, however, readily lend themselves to formal statistical methods, and experience and judgment are required to arrive at a reasonable assessment. Safety margins for the effects of random morphological processes (shifts of gauge rating curve), errors in model calibration and under-estimation of extreme events owing to shortness of records were considered. This provided a safety margin on these three counts of 40 cm for a I in 100 year event. This margin was included within the overall safety requirements, including freeboard. The project revetments are therefore designed with the top of the crest wall Im above High Flood Level. for the purposes of designing the works, it has been assumed that the Jamuna Bridge will be built and the design water levels were modified accordingly. Low Water Level (LWL) is defined as the lowest annual river level with a 30% probability of occurrence, corresponding to a simulated discharge of 2 year return period. However, for practical purposes, the water level of greater relevance is that which will not be exceeded for a specific degree of probability over a reasonable construction period. For the design of the works, this level has been taken as LWL+2m, which corresponds approximately to a 50% probability of exceedance within a 160 day construction window. In practice, this means that there is a 50% probability that work can be carried out in the dry season over a continuous period of 160 days. Near Bank Velocity 19. One of the most important design parameters for the bank stabilization works is the maximum near bank velocity. This typically is the ruling criterion for the sizing of the armor layer, the other criterion being resistance to wind-induced wave action. Based on the results of a number of physical model tests and interpretation of mathematical model results, it has been found that there is a relationship between the mean velocity in the river section as a whole and the maximum velocity that can develop near the bank and around artificial projections such as groynes. The results of these analyses are given in the table below. Design Velocities (Probability for exceedance of 100 year design event is 1% in pr ject lifetime (30 year)). Type of Structure Amplification Factor Design Velocity (m/s) Revetment straight section 1.1 3.7 Revetment upstream termination 1.3 4.4 Head of groyne* 1.4 4.8 Including upstream termination at Ranigram Groyne, Sirajganj. ANNEX 1 Page 8 of 11 The formula used for the design of armor material sizing for the proposed Jamuna Bridge guide bunds has been used to determine armor size, and the results compared with those derived from wave considerations. Only in the case of straight revetment did wave action prove the governing criteria. At upstream terminations and groyne heads, the higher flow velocities become the critical factor for armor sizing. Wind Wave Action 20. The second most important criterion governing the size of the material in the protective layer for stabilization and training works is that the material must be able to resist the forces induced by wind wave action. The formula developed by Pilarczyk was used to determine the required size of armor units subject to wave action. A considerable amount of past data collection and analysis was available. This has been reviewed and some further analysis carried out on data from five meteorological stations, including Sirajganj, obtained from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department. A reasonable consistency was found between the five sets of data, and from analysis of the data, the design wave height was found to be Im with period 3.0 seconds. Geotechnical 21. The stability of the revetment section has been checked by slip circle analysis for both static and seismic conditions. For the purposes of pseudo-static analysis, a horizontal acceleration of 0.15 g was used for this analysis. As, however, the design earthquake is magnitude 7, a reduced factor of safety of 1.1 is acceptable, or 1.05 for a combination of extreme events. For static loading conditions, including the scoured face at the foot of the revetment, a factor of safety of 1.5 was applied. 22. The falling apron setting level has been determined from a combination of slope stability considerations, bearing in mind that the scour slope will be steeper than the profiled revetment section, and a reasonable maximum dredging depth. From the results of numerous physical model tests and reported experience in India and elsewhere, it has been concluded that it is reasonable to assume that the slope of the launched apron is unlikely to be steeper than 1V:2H. With this configuration and the base of the apron set at 1Om below LWL, it was found that a lower revetment slope of lV:3.5H gave acceptable factors of safety. The upper slope, above LWL+2m, had to be flattened to the same slope of IV:3.5V from the earlier design of IV:3.OH following analysis of the piezometer data collected at Sirajganj over the full annual cycle of water levels. These data shoved that during the falling stage the piezometric head in the more clayey/silty strata of the bank could be as much as Im higher than the river water level for considerable periods of time. Morphological 23. The morphological characteristics of the river that are of most direct concern for the structural design bank stabilization works are: (a) The depth of scour that may be expected to occur in the immediate proximity of the structure during its design life, with an approximately 1% combined exceedance probability. This will determine the falling apron geometry and influence its setting depth. ANNEX I Page 9 of 11 (b) The planforms of embayments that may develop on the upstream and downstream sides of a revetment or groyne and the velocity field associated with these structures. These will determine the planform geometry of a revetment and its associated cross-bar. Each of these considerations are discussed below. 24. Scour Depth. The assessment of maximum scour that can occur has been the subject of several complementary studies, including: (a) physical model studies using mobile bed conditions to investigate scour associated with groynes and other active forms of training works; (b) river surveys of locations where active bank erosion is taking place; (c) mathematical model simulation; (d) morphological model simulation for simple bends; and (e) analysis of BWDB river cross-sectional data surveyed over a period of about 30 years. Analysis of these studies points to the conclusion that the worst scour that can occur arises from exceptional combinations of conditions associated with major anabranch confluences. The most severe condition is associated with vortex shedding downstream of a groyne nose. It has been concluded that, based on depth below the 100 year design flood level, satisfactory values for design purposes are 29m for scour at the toe of a bank revetment, 33m at the nose of a groyne and 33m at the upstream termination of a bank revetment. The falling apron is designed to distribute the equivalent of at least two layers of armor material over the deformed slope face with full scour development. Model tests and experience indicate that the redistributed armor material forms a remarkably uniform single layer and it is reasonable to expect that there will, in practice, be an in-built reserve of material that can be drawn upon in the unusual case of scour exceeding these design values. The apron design adopted will, in theory, provide sufficient armor material for a single layer over the complete surface for scour depth of 44m at the nose of a groyne and 33m at the toe of a straight revetment. 25. Embayment Planform. The second of the morphological design criteria presents a more difficult problem because of the ever-changing conditions on the river and the absence of clear behavioral trends. The location and planform of the works must take into consideration not only the present conditions, but what may be expected to occur within the planning horizon for the works concerned. In general, the location and the length of a revetment will be determnined by two considerations: (a) providing direct protection to a specific object, such as a substantial town or major infrastructure; and (b) minimizing the risk of outflanking. Both these are closely related to the form and depth of embayment that could form. The location and length of the revetment must be such that: protection is provided even with full embayment development, or at least such that relatively low cost secondary works would be sufficient to prevent development of the embayment beyond certain limits. Equally important is that the cross-bar should remain functional under similar conditions. There is very little data on which to base an estimate of the probable maximum embayment development upstream of a revetment. The approach adopted has been to take the worst anabranch bend/embayments picked from the available satellite imagery, and to use these as examples of the aspect ratio (depth to chord length) of a simple, approximately symmetrical, embayment that can be expected to develop anywhere on the right bank. The bends at Jalapur and Fulcharighat on the Brahmaputra right bank that developed between 1984 and 1990 appear to be unusually severe cases and were used for this purpose in the design. ANNEX 1 Page lOof 11 Filter Layer Design 26. The filter layer laid on the formed bank slope is seen as a crucial element of the revetment and its absence in an effective form is thought to have been a major contributory cause to the failure of many river training works constructed on the Brahmaputra in the past. Grading requirements and the extreme difficulties of placing in flowing water effectively rule out mineral filters. A material of proven performance and durability is required, which can be laid without insurmountable practical difficulties. Geotextiles have been extensively used in other countries for this purpose and under similar environmental conditions, and good guidelines for the design and construction of revetments incorporating geotextiles have been published by PIANC (1987). Advice, particularly regarding material properties, was sought from leading geotextile filter manufacturers and the conclusions incorporated in the design and bid document specifications. E. Proiect Revetment Structures Layout in Plan 27. For the reasons described above, "hard-point" revetment structures are the principal form of river bank stabilization measure proposed for the works. Existing groynes at the project sites would, however, be rehabilitated in conformnance with the design criteria. The layout of a typical revetment hard-point for Sariakandi/Mathurapara is shown in Figure 1. The length of straight revetment is such as to ensure that there will be an acceptably low risk of the embayment, or any re-entry upstream of the revetment, threatening the integrity of the cross-bar. The cross-bar is angled back in plan to decrease further the risk of erosion from the upstream side. The cross-bar is lightly armored against wave action from out-of-bank flow by brick mattressing on its upstream side, for the whole length back to the BRE, and for the lOOm nearest to the river bank on the downstream side. The revetment is returned into the bank by upstream and downstream terminations. The upstream termination and the length of straight revetment immediately downstream of it will be subjected to higher flow velocities than the rest of the straight revetment and the downstream termination, and hence heavier armoring is provided. The layout of the proposed works at Sirajganj is shown in Figure 2. Typical Revetment Section 28. The essential features of the revetment to be determined by design are: crest level, slope, geotextile filter membrane, armor material and falling apron. A typical revetment section is shown in Figure 3. The crest level is determined from the 100 year return period water level, derived from the modeling program with a l.Om allowance for freeboard. A single layer of placed armoring extends from the concrete crest wall to the lowest water level likely to be experienced during construction, namely LWL+2m. From that level to the apron setting depth, armoring will be dumped to form the equivalent of two layers. The apron setting level has been determined from considerations of slope stability and dredging depth. The quantity of armor material in the apron is adequate to protect the scoured slope to design scour depth with a thickness of armoring in excess of two layers. There is strong evidence that a geotextile membrane under the apron would interfere with the launching mechanism leaving the geotextile exposed. It is therefore not continued under the apron beyond the first 2m. ANNEX I Pae Il of 11 29. Based on the flow velocity and wave considerations described above, the following sizes have been drmined for concrete cubic block annoring using brick aggregate: Noses of groynes 850 mm Upstream tlminations 720 mm Linear revetments and downstream trminations 550 mm The revetment desig provides for a choice to be made betwe three difrent armor matrils, namely: concrete blocks with brick aggregat, concrete blocks with stone aggrpte, and quarried rock. ANNEX I Figure 1 z econstructioni of ~ Kdhitola G oyne . Revelmed rks SARIAKA Di at Sariakand. Future retired flood embonkment Revetment- Works at Mothurapbro 0 I2km ) ~~SCALE , \ \\ + MAT APARA Retired flood embOankment Layout of Works at Sariakandi & Mathuraoara ANNEX I Figure 2 R A MA UrRA Rv lOOm 200m Aoron Revtment Mai 30m ,Country boot steps Storage area for concrete Nominal bank line ',Downstream I(0 < 8 r ~~~~~~~~~~~~~ermination Upstrecm terrminction CCro33 bOr 2 0 0 Retired embankment I I c 0 100 200 300m. SCA LE Typical Hard-Point and Cross-Bar ANNEX I Figure 3 0 0 oi o ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 _ _ TypialcRvetentlect 0 '4- , . z sclRv0mn etc ANI Figure 4 Sectiorr A Upstream rermination Exisliria Ronigrom B 3 toy,, aec:tc.% ~c~r . tLona rec1omczion jtew 'ie/rnenr - lood embonkment/ ! _ 400.M @Xs ~~~~~~~~~~~Section O SCALE SIRAJGANJ Ja:&\, Replocemenr TOWN \ of existing revetmen.6 Phase IA (PriorityWorks) L-ayout ofWcrks zit Siraiganj Ii Layout of Warks at Sirajganj ANNEX 2 Page 1 of 2 BANGLADESH RIVER BANK PROTECTION PROJECT Design Considerations for BRE Retirement at Sariakandi Functional Requirements 1. The purpose of the BRE is to prevent over bank flow from the Brahmaputra entering an area of about 240,000 ha on the right bank flood plain. Since the strip of flood plain is relatively long and narrow, being on average only 15-25 km wide, the distance that the flood embankment is set back from the river is clearly significant in terms of the area being promoted. The embankment is nominally designed to provide protection against a flood event of 100 years return period: i.e., the top of the embankment is set at the water level that could occur at any point with a frequency of one in 100 years plus a freeboard of 5 ft (1 .5m) to cater for wave action and settlement of the crest level with time. Construction Methods 2. The BRE retirement at Sariakandi-Mathurapara would be carried out by a local contractor selected by Local Competitive Bidding (LCB). Labor intensive methods are likely to predominate, although compaction should be undertaken by mechanical means, and mechanical earthmoving will help to achieve homogeneity where mixing owing to local variability of material is required. The design should, however, take into account the constraints which may be imposed by linited plant availability and comparatively low standards of working practice. The embankment should be capable of retaining a 2m depth of water for a period of two months, despite lack of compaction and even lack of clod breaking. Freeboard should be adequate to allow for any inadequacies of crest level control, and for the inevitable settlement. Protection Against Piping and Erosion 3. The soils are inherently weak and erosion of embankments will occur from currents and waves unless preventative measures are taken. Under certain circumstances, such as sustained high head differences across the embankment, seepage forces could result in piping in these fine soils unless precautions are taken. Good compaction of the soil is essential as this will simultaneously increase its strength and reduce its permeability. Surprisingly, there are very few indications of damage by wave action and no substantiated cases of piping on the BRE. Where significant wave damage has been recorded, it is invariably associated with retired sections of the embankment where quality control has been lax, side slopes are steep and no attempt has been made to establish grass cover. Positive measures, therefore, need to be taken to encourage the growth of suitable vegetation in this zone-sugar cane or vetiver grass would seem to be one of the more attractive possibilities. Sources of Construction Materials 4. Economic considerations rule out the use of other than local materials for embankment construction. This need not, however, be a significant constraint for an embankment which generally need not retain more than 3.5m depth of water. This has been bome out by the satisfactory geotechnical ANNEX 2 Page 2 of 2 performance of the original BRE, constructed from locally available material. Where there are substantial deposits of consistently more sandy or more clayey soil, these can be used selectively to improve the embankment stability. In general, the variability of the stratification is such that the embankment will have to be treated as homogeneous, in which case the emphasis should be on ensuring good mixing of the material to avoid flow concentrations. This mixing is best achieved through mechanical earthmoving. Borrow areas must be sited sufficiently far away from the toe of the embankment so as not to affect the slope stability adversely. If excavated on the river-side, which is usually favored for both social and financial considerations, the borrow pit must be made discontinuous and stabilized by the planting of appropriate vegetation to prevent scour and channel evolution. Construction Standards 5. It has been noted that economic considerations will normally dictate that the embankment be constructed as a homogeneous section using the locally available silty material. The performance of the original BRE demonstrates that if the embankment is well constructed then it may be expected to perform satisfactorily. Well constructed in this context means primarily that the material is properly consolidated and that the cross-sectional profile is achieved. It is also desirable that the material should be well mixed, unless larger uniform deposits make local zoning feasible. These considerations point strongly to the use of mechanical plant for the construction of the embankment unless a very high level of management and supervision can be achieved. 6. With little opportunity to obtain soils from further afield, the best use must be made of the material available locally. Organic material must be excluded, and organic or very silty layers in the foundation must be removed. Compaction should be of as high a standard as reasonably practicable. The absolute minimum requirement is clod-breaking and this should be enforced. Preferably the material should be placed in layers not exceeding 250 mm thick at close to optimum moisture content, and compacted to 95% standard Proctor density. With reasonable control a crest level of +200 mm -0 should be achievable, with the same order of tolerance horizontally at top of slope (distance from centerline). Toe of slope could be +500 mm -0 from centerline. Following completion of the embankment, the slopes should be grassed. Equally important is the planting of vegetation to prevent borrow pits from beconiing preferential flow channels. Design Criteria 7. The recommended crest height is that which allows a 1.5m freeboard above the 100 year return period flood level at the Sariakandi/Mathurapara reach of the Brahmaputra River. The recommended crest width is 6m which will be sufficient for maintenance purpose. The side slopes recommended by a BRTS soil stability analysis are: (a) IV:3H on the river side, and (b) IV:5H on the country side. These slopes and the 6m crest width will assume a reasonable factor of safety against seepage forces during floods. ANNEX-3 Page 1 of 22 BANGLADESH RIVER BANK PROTECTION PROJECT Resettlement Action Plan 1. INTRODUCTION 1. In compliance with the principles of the Bank's Operational Directive 4.30, a resettlement action plan (RAP) has been prepared for the project. The main challenges of this plan have been to: (a) develop an improved mechanism of valuation of land; (b) develop policies which adequately address the need for restoring income levels of agriculture-based households; (c) identify and define non-property owners in need of assistance; and (d) design mechanisms which adequately ensure proper relocation of households losing their homesteads. Project Locations and Sunmarv of Acquisition and Resettlement Impacts 2. There will be two construction contracts each of 30 months. Contract No. BI, for the works at Sariakandi and Mathurapara and Contract No. B2, Sirajganj (Figure 1). At Sirajganj a new revetment over 2 km long will be constructed to protect the town's population and infrastructure from erosion. At Mathurapara-Sariakandi revetment type "hard-point and cross- bar" will be constructed at each of these locations and the existing Kalitola Groyne will be reconstructed to prevent breakthrough of the Brahmaputra-Jamuna into the Bangali River. The Sirajgan; and Sariakandi area bank protection works are separate projects in terns of implementation of compensation since they are distant from one another and the economic settings and project impacts are different. However, the same set of compensation entitlements and institutional arrangements apply to each area. 3. Siraigani In Sirajganj, the area affected is on the urban fringe comprising the busy waterfront of a regionally important river port and low-lying agricultural land presently outside any flood protection. The existing riverbank revetments will be improved involving the displacement of about 140 households (as of March 1995) living on the riverside of the embankment, along with 116 shops and businesses along the embankment (many other businesses move around the ferry terminals depending on the level of the river and would not be directly affected). The project works have already been modified to avoid displacing 35 long established households on private land on the country side of the embankmnent. Figure 2 shows the project affected area and the housing zones identified in he study along the embankment. 4. The 140 households have fixed assets averaging about Tk 5,990 per household. A total of 693 people will be affected. About 35 percent of wage earners are rickshaw pullers, and 26 percent have small businesses. The 116 shops vary greatly in size and type of business, on average these premises are valued at Tk 23,500 each. The estimates from the 1992 survey responses were significantly less. There are also 25 people who have gardens and trees located on the embankment with a total area of 1,092 m sq and present value of standing plants of Tk 16,000. 5. The project will reclaim about 25 ha of seasonally flooded land adjacent to the Jamuna between Sirajganj town and Ranigram Groyne. Part of this area is cultivated and a smaller part is under water throughout the year. BWDB has previously acquired about 20 percent of this land and the DC has declared that the remainder is "khas" land (recently created by silt deposits and owned by Govenmuent). Subject to this being confirmed, requisition of this area should be straight forward. There is one homestead which will be displaced and cultivators will receive compensation ANNEX_3 Page 2 of 22 and assistance in relocating. The land will be used as a working area by the contractors during construction. 6. After the project, this reclaimed area will form an extension to Sirajganj town and will be protected by the project works. BWDB will retain on a permanent basis about 7.5 ha of this area for the Monitoring and Maintenance Unit responsible in the long-term for the bank protection works under this project (Figure 3). A permanent resettlement site is also planned for the 140 households displaced by the project and will require about 3.2 ha (Figure 4.) The plan provides for facilities at this site and an orderly transfer of houses, which must take place before the final year of construction. Assuming it is khas land, the remaining area would be returned to the jurisdiction of the DC after reclamation. 7. Sariakandi-Mathurapara Area The Sariakandi area has experienced rapid erosion in recent years from the Jamuna river to the east. A smaller river, the Bangali, lies one km to the west and the area between is occupied by long-term residents and resettled erosion victims. The project will strengthen the existing Kalitola Groyne at Sariakandi, build a hard-point about 2.5 km south of Sariakandi near Digolkandi village to stop erosion (Sariakandi hard-point) and at Mathurapara and, after completion of the construction of hard points, construct a new 7.5 km section of the Brahmaputra Right Embankment (BRE) which will connect the cross-bars of the three bank protection works to provide long-term flood protection to the area (Figure 5). 8. The key problem in finalizing the RAP is continued uncertainty over the location of the hard points. Erosion during 1992 and 1993 has caused the initial locations of both Sariakandi and Mathurapara hard points to be relocated, and it is possible that further erosion in the period to 1996 may require further relocation. This is because, while placement of the hard points is designed to be completed within one dry season, preparation of the site and materials needed is a lengthy process: assuming a contract is awarded by November 1995, it will take about one year for preparation, with placement in winter 1996/7. Land Acquisition and Resettlement Needs 9. To determine the range of land acquisition and resettlement needs, it was assumed that the worst case was represented by the rapid erosion of 1993 continuing at the same rate in 1995 and 1996. Locations for the hard points and cross-bars were determined for the worst case barkline position, and an "envelope" area was defined for each of Sariakandi and Mathurapara hard points which included all possible hard-point locations for erosion rates up to that defined for this worst case. Within each envelope, a census of homesteads and landowners was made based on a 20 percent sample survey in Mathurapara, and in Sariakandi, where many households would be affected by construction even without further erosion, all households were interviewed. Following this method, three erosion scenarios were developed: (1) no further erosion, construction at February 1995 bankline; (2) an intermediate scenario which assumed erosion at half the rate of 1993, and (3) rapid erosion at the same rate as in 1993 at both sites in 1995 and 1996. The implications of these scenarios on resettlement are detailed below. 10. Mathurapara The bankline here eroded 300 m in 1993. In the envelope area, the potentially Project Affected Persons (PAPs) comprise: 108 households (573 people) living in the area, 6 shops, and 45 households living outside the area have land affected by the project. The total area potentially affected is 64 ha of which 21.5 ha is reported to be under homesteads. Agricultural land is mostly double cropped (cropping intensity 240 percent), major crops are jute, transplanted aman, wheat, and HYV boro. The reported replacement value of land is about Tk 187,000 per ha, and recent land prices are deflated or not available within much of the project area because of the erosion risk. Incomes are mainly dependent on farming and agricultural laboring, ANNEX 3 Page 3 of 22 and reported per capita income averages Tk 5,280 per year. If forced to move home by the project, between 54 and 71 percent (depending on whether they had government resettlement assistance) would prefer to move out of the area, many indicating a preference to move to near Bogra. The households have been categorized according to the type of assets affected. Table I shows the estimated numbers of households (MH) affected in the three scenarios. The scenarios are adjusted for areas lost to erosion before the Section 3 notification of land acquisition, but assume that full compensation would then be paid for all the area on which the acquisition process was started. Because many households live on the present BRE, and nearby areas have high density of owner occupied homesteads, even a moderate erosion rate will force the project to displace over 70 households. In addition, the extreme scenario (3) would result in 6 shops being displaced with total value of structures of about Tk 33,000. Table 1:_ Comp~ensation and Resettlement Impacts for Mathurapara -in Three Indicative Scenarios Impact Scenario I Scenarno2 Scenario 3 . ~~~~~~~(no erosion) . (.150 m a year) (t300.m ayear.) ......................................................... ................... ..................... ................ ...... ........................ Q . T.......... ... .............. HH with no homestead displaced 10 63 81 HH only with homestead displaced 0 4 8 H- lose all land and homestead 0 6 11 HH lose homestead and part of land 0 4 8 Total HH displaced 10 81 108 Private ha acquired 9.7 30 64 ha requisitioned 7 7 7 Note Toaa ar ac denved frm mas mcludes rea is dea homrsteads. 11. Sariakandi The bankline here eroded about 100 m in 1993. In the envelope area, the potential PAPs comprise: 112 households (519 people) living in the area, one brickwork, and 63 households living outside the area but with land inside. The total area potentially affected is 33.5 ha of which 2.2 ha is reported to be under homesteads. Agricultural land is mostly double or triple cropped and is similar to that in Mathurapara. Many of the households (71) live on or near the BRE and would be displaced by construction works even if there is minimal erosion in 1994 and 1995. Some of these households would prefer to leave the area, but many wish to remain, and without resettlement would have no alternative but to move to another part of the BRE. The hard point itself would not be suitable for homesteads and will need to be unoccupied for maintenance. A resettlement site nearly will be developed. In the worst case, a further 41 households in part of Digolkandi village could also be displaced, along with the brickworks. Table 2 shows the estimated numbers of households which would be affected in two scenarios. The irnpacts and costs for an erosion rate of half the 1993 rate would be almost the samne as for the no erosion scenario. Table 2: Compensation and Resettlement imeacts for Sariakandi in Two indicative Scenarios I.. Scenari . eion) .......................e . . (0 m HH with no homestead displaced 64 64 HH only vith homestead displaced 7 24 HHlose a lad andhonmetead 0 15 HH lose homestead and pautofland 0 9 TodaHHdisplaced 71 112 Private ha acquuied 9.71 1I.1 ha reqisitiorned 6 5 12. Kalitola Groyne The existing Groyne in Sariakandi town experienced less erosion in 1993 and will be improved to form the third hard point in the area. Access for construction will be needed and will displace for up to two years about 10 households; all but one are landless living near the base of the groyne. After construction, the land should be available again for these people, but if access for maintenance to the groyne is to be maintained, resettlement at another site on the edge of the town is preferred. ANNEX 3 Page 4 of 22 13. Proosed BRE When the hard points have been constructed and stabilize the bankline, a final retired BRE will be needed to link the crossbars of the hard points. This will provide long- term protection from Jamuna floods to the immediate area and to a wider area of the Bangali floodplain. The retired BRE associated with this project would have a total length of about 7.5 km. The BRE will require a strip of land approximately 33.5 m wide with no berm for resettlement and 37.75 m wide with a resettlement berm. In all cases a crest height of 5 m above ground level is assumed. The precise location will depend on the final sites of the hard points, but there is limited room to change the location. For planning purposes, a location assuming the present bankline at construction has been surveyed. This implies about 25.1-28.3 ha of land will be needed. Most is cultivated land, but with the revised alignment, relatively few landless households (most own their homesteads) and landowners would lose their homes compared with the earlier alignment. The number of households affected will depend on the final alignment, but for estimation purposed 50 households have been assumed. Another implication of the erosion process, which would arise even without the project, is the other households in Sariakandi and the remainder of Digolkandi village will eventually find themselves outside the BRE, and thus prone to flooding, when the present BRE erodes. 2. RESETTLEMENT PLAN ENTITLEMENTS AND POLICY 14. Land acquisition in Bangladesh is known to cause severe adverse impacts on the majority of affected people because (a) the level of compensation of land has generally been far below the market value of the lost properties; (b) the small average land holdings in Bangladesh makes people exuremely vulnerable to even small losses of productive land; and (c) the GOB Ordinance which governs land acquisition only recognizes legal owners of properties being acquired. This excludes different kinds of people in Bangladesh without legal ownership of the one land and/or property being acquired. but who either live, or derive their income from land, or from enterprises based on the affected land. Following discussions in January/February 1995, the Policy Entitlement Matrix (PEM) for the River Bank Protection Project was compared and harmonized with the PEM for the Coastal Emnbankment Rehabilitation Project. The revise PEM for RBPP is given in Appendix 1. 1S. The matrix covers 14 a categories of entitlement and refers to the responsibilities of the Project Management and Resettlement Unit (PMRU) which BWDB will set-up to manage both project implementation and compensation and resettlement for this project. The following exceptions or additional factors also will be taken into account while implementing the plan. * Some landowners in Sariakandi have lost their land to the recent (1992-3) retirement of the BRE, but did not receive compensation. If this land is taken by the project, they will receive full compensation under the entitlements specified in the matrix. * The PMRU will monitor conditions in the resettlement areas to ensure that the host communities are not adversely affected. * Community infrastructure (schools, mosques, temples and common market facilities) which will be affected by project works need to be moved or reconstructed or replaced. This will be covered under the compensation budget. Through the advisory and liaison committee, appropriate relocation sites will be determined which benefit both affected people and host communities. * The project is not expected to have any direct negative impacts beyond the area already identified for land acquisition and covered in this plan. However, the PMRU will monitor the construction works and changes in the surrounding area differential impacts. ANNEX 3 Page 5 of 22 16. Retirement of the BRE and limited erosion until stable bays form after the project will result in some further loss of land and eventually place some land and homesteads outside flood protection. Formal assistance to these victims lies outside the scope of this resettlement plan since the loss would have occurred without the project. Planned displacement of people in Sriakandi town or from the present BRE onto a ready-made berm on the new BRE, along with basic service provisions can only be finalized when the alignment of the retired BRE is agreed. 3. CONSULTATION AND GRIEVANCE PROCEDURE 17. Public Consultation and Information The socio-economic surveys conducted for the RAP have already made people in the affected areas aware of proposals since all households have been censured. The local administration have been made aware of the proposals on an informal basis. The proposed BRE alignment in Sariakandi area has raised problems and potential opposition since part of the town and most of Digolkandi village would be on the riverside of the embankment. In the Sariakandi area, people hope that the new hard points will halt erosion and landowners expect to get compensation instead of being made landless by the river in a few years. In Sirajganj, an increase in land values as a result of the project is anticipated. Opinions on compensation levels and resettlement preference have already been obtained on a household level from all households living in the affected areas in Sirajganj and Sariakandi sits, and from samples in Mathurapara and the proposed BRE alignment. These are reported and incorporated in the detailed plans. Formal discussion with the local administration and relevant elected representatives is needed to inform them of the RAP contents, obtain their opinions and set in motion the local advisory and liaison committees and close working relations between the PMRU and the DC's office. A small workshop to this effect will be held before the PMRU is established. This should take place before finalization of the RAP so that local agencies which will be involved in or be affected by implementation have some ownership over the Plan. 18. Public Information The PMRU assisted by other sub-contracted organizations will undertake a public information campaign and then consultations with affected people. They will then keep people informed as the project location is finalized. As part of implementation of the RAP, the PAPs will be counseled by the partner organization over which option among those specified in he entitlement would be best for them. For example, many households say they wish to leave the Mathurapara area, but as landless labouring households may not find sufficient work if they move to the Bogra area, they need to be aware of what facilities and services they would get by remaining in the area compared with moving out. A simple brochure in Bangla on each sub- project (giving details of aims, project components, compensation arrangement, entitlements, and organizations involved) will be prepared and distnrbuted within one month of the establishment of the PMRU. Its distribution will also help in bringing forward any PAPs missed in the surveys. This will be followed up with a public meeting in each of the two contract areas involving the local MP, local officials, BWDB, NGOs etc., and PAPs. This will discuss the project, entitlements, possible resettlement locations, and implementation issues. The aims will be to explain the current plan, find out what local concerns are over project impacts (which could affect the choice of final hard-point locations within the envelope areas), improve understanding on both sides, and help find replacement land in adjacent mauzas. 19. Grievances Because of complexity and confusion in land records, there is considerable scope for grievances over the whole compensation process. The additional entitlements specified in the RAP are designed to overcome many of the past problems. Grievance Committees which will be set-up are designed to avoid lengthy delays over cash compensation according to law (CCL) where possible through negotiation, and to provide a final decision over any dispute regarding the additional grants and assistance provided by the project. Examples of problems which would be heard by this committee include: people who claim to be PAPs, but were initially not recorded as ANNEX 3 Page 6 of 22 such by the project, disputes over values, special cases where flat rate grants are inadequate, disputes over the equivalence of replacement land, and arrangements over the reclamation area at Sirajganj. 20. The Grievance Committees must be seen to be impartial and to represent the agencies involved. They will sit in situ in the affected area without requiring PAPs to make frequent visits to distant towns. There will be one Grievance Committee in each of Sirajganj and Sariakandi areas. Following recent recommendations by BWDB which takes account of JMBA's successful experience and WB's requirement for representation from GOB as well as NGO, the Grievance Committee will comprise the following members: (i) Sub-Divisional Engineer (SDE) of implementation Agency Convenor (ii) Resettlement Public Relations officer (RPRO) of PMRU Member Secretary (iii) Local UP Chairman Member (iv) Program Manager of the Implementing NGO Member If necessary, the Committee will co-opt. Members from Section officers (SO) BWDB, and a teacher of the local educational institution as non-Government Aide. 21. The two committees will be formed within two months of the establishment of the PMRU, so that the procedure can be seen by PAPs to be in place. It will commence hearings within a week of issuing details of entitlement to PAPs following joint verification. Grievances may be brought to the attention of the implementing NGO or PMRU office. The committees are expected to meet to hear grievances once every two weeks for a day (information on the place and time will be posted In the concemed areas and PAPs informed by the village level workers). The PMRU will review progress of these hearings and increase the infrequency of meetings if required. Project costs include payment of committe members' expenses for attending hearings and in follow-up work including visits to PAPs and investigation of land records. 4. INSTITUTIONAL AND ORGANIZATIONAL ARRANGEMENTS 22. The managemnt structure for implementation has to merge engineering construction with ensuring payment of full compensation to affected people. The organizational set-up for the Resettlement Plan includes: * the DC's office, which has legal responsibility for paying compensation and has access to official land records; * BWDB as the requiring body is responsible for the project works and the new entitlements additional to those recovered in the DC's responsibilities. To implement this BWDB will formn a new project level organization for resettlement; * other organizations (whether government or non-government) with skills and services required for resettlement and rehabilitation; and * the linkages between these organizations and demarcation of responsibilities. 23. All involved organizations face some problems in their relations with the affected people. For example, the area has had frequent surveys but continues to erode so BWDB is thought to be inactive; there have been problems over compensation in past land acquisition; and NGOs in the Bogra area face problems with fundamentalists. Hence the first step will be to convince the PAPs that the agencies involved will be sensitive to local people and that the project will benefit them through fair and comprehensive compensation. Provision for indqendent monitoring and evaluation is made because this is a new approach and it will be important to learn for futre projects. ANNEX 3 Page 7 of 22 24. DC's District Administration Office. As the acquiring body, the DC's office is and will remain liable under the law for performing (a) the process of checking proposals for land acquisition; (b) serving notices; (c) assessing land values; (d) reporting disputes; and (e) paying cash compensation according to the law (CCL) including the 50 percent premium on land values. The distnct administration will receive assistance from BWDB and other organizations, and BWDB will take formal responsibility for providing services and payments to PAPs in addition to CCL. 25. It is essential to the project timetable that CCL is paid on time and in full. It is essential that genuine landowners who lose to the project receive their full compensation. The PMRU assisted by sub-contracted or partner organizations, will work with the DC's office during joint verification of entitlements and will ensure that their databases of PAPs and their entitlement are consistent. In view of the urgent nature of the project and critical issue of updating and validating land records, the relevant DC's will be requested to deploy their land record staff to the project needs on a priority basis and BWDB will provide additional staff if required to work on the DC's behalf. 26. BWDB Organization and Responsibilities Under the RAP, BWDB will be responsible for: (a) ensuring that alJ entitled persons were identified (as in the policy matrix); (b) providing top-up funds between the CCL amount and that required for replacement values, and for any category of compensation not specified under existing legislation (of which the main one is category 5 - loss of occupied homestead); (c) providing the funds for additional services (the services of the partner NGOs staff, record keeping, publicity, any training provisions, and finding replacement land); and, (d) delegating implementation of some of these activities to other organizations contracted to BWDB for the purpose, but will supervise this and retain responsibility. BWDB will also provide a link between the contractor and the resettlement plan. Land required temporarily by the contractor is not covered in the RAP, but private arrangements made by the contractor should not be detrimental to local people nor should they adversely affect the implementation of the RAP. The contractors may help PAPs by providing work or may adversely affect them if construction is not handled sensitively. 27. Project Management and Resettlement Unit (PMRU) The RAP is to be administered initially by the Project Management and Resettlement Unit (PMRU) under a Deputy Director Resettlement and will utilize staff seconded from relevant directorates plus newly appointed social scientists. Appropriate staff will be recruited, or existing staff retrained in resettlement, on an urgent basis. The staff should liaise with and learn from practical experience in the Jamuna Bridge Resettlement Unit. After construction and closure of the Project Management Unit, a Monitoring and Maintenance Unit for bank protection works is scheduled to be set-up and the Resettlement Unit will continue alongside this unit in a reduced formn for a year after completion of the works. 28. Under the charge of a Project Director, the PMRU will have the usual staff concerned with management and monitoring of construction. The resettlement and land acquisition aspect of the work will be the responsibility of a Deputy Director seconded form the BWDB Land and Revenue Directorate, who should have extensive land acquisition experience and a social science background. The central PMRU staff covering Sanakandi area and Sirajganj area will be located in Bogra, work closely with the District administration and PMRU sub-offices, and maintain a central computerized records of entitlements. There will be two sub-project offices of the PMRU, one at Sirajganj and one at Sariakandi, the latter covering all the works from the Kalitola Groyne to Mathurapara hard point. The staff at each sub-project office will be responsible to the Deputy Director Resettlement. Figure 6 gives the organogram for key personnel, including the expected ANNEX 3 Page 8 of 22 arrangement in the sub-contracted organizations. Figure 7 shows the linkages between this unit and other organizations involved in implementing the plan. 29. The main tasks of the resettlement wing of the PMRU will be to: (a) coordinate, manage and day-to-day monitoring of resettlernent; (b) establish two local advisory and liaison committees, one in each area (Sairakandi-Mathurapara and Sirajganj), (c) determine landownership within the project land acquisition areas; (d) determine entitlement packages of each PAP (assisted by partner organizations); (e) ensure that the records kept for CCL and for additional project related compensation are consistent; (f) ensure all PAPs are identified and receive their entitlement with the minimum hardship; (g) liaise with DC over land acquisition and ensure timely and full payment of CCL; (h) arrange payment of additional compensation to the CCL according to PAP entitlemnents and ensure its timely payment (assisted by partner organizations); (i) prepare TORs for other organizations contracted to assist or imnplement resettlement plan components; (j) select and monitor other organizations for resettlement subcontracts; (k) arrange purchase or handover of, and supervise design and construction of, resettlement sites as specified in resettlement plan; (I) identify acquired lands remaining after construction available for resettlement; negotiate employment of appropriate PAPs with contractors; (m) prepare TOR for, and determine who will make, post-resettlement survey for post-evaluation of the program; and (n) identify any other PAPs, who may have been missed earlier, as the project is implemented and operational. 30. The PMRU Deputy Director Resettlement will prepare a quarterly report for BWDB covering progress compared with schedule in both areas, and any problems or changes to the plan: for example, results of land value assessment, revisions to PAPs, changes to cost estimates following joint verification. The sub-contracted organizations will submit reports two weeks in advance of this covering their activities, progress and problems. Monitoring of erosion and PAPs will be undertaken by the PMRU and partner organizations. Resulting changes proposed to the timetable or plan will be submitted to the Director, PMRU who will forward to the relevant Chief Engineer for approval, following discussion with the local advisory committee, supervision consultants and contractors as appropriate. 31. Sub-contracted NGOs. It is not appropriate for BWDB to develop all the relevant expertise in compensation and resettlement itself. Specialist skills are needed in areas which BWDB does not normally work in, and it will be more efficient to contract assistance from other organizations as well as improving accountability to those affected.. The NGOs in general have directly relevant experience in their development programs, and are experienced in working closely with and encouraging participation of beneficiaries. In addition, staff of other government agencies, and local organizations also have relevant experience. One NGO in each area will be contracted as a partner to the PMRU sub-office and will provide the necessary skills, experience in assisting the rural poor, and a measure of independence from both the District Adminisation and BWDB. These organizations will employ village level resettlement workers who will help in determining who is eligible for what compensation, and who will provide records of entitlements and then follow up to see that entitlements are received. Disbursement of additional compensation not specified by law will be supervised by the BWDB-PMRU, but carried out by the sub-contracted organizations. 32. Specific tasks of the selected NGO will be to (a) provide appropriate field staff; (b) facilitate public awareness of entitlements and consultation over the details of plan implementation; (c) identify entitlements other than the legal minimum ones, and advising on use of compensation; (d) issue PAP identify cards; (e) maintain entitlement records, and records of compensation received, decisions taken, other services provided , locations moved to etc.; (f) represent or assist the PMRU in joint verification of land acquisition with the staff of DC's ANNEX 3 Page 9 of 22 office; (g) identify replacement plots and providing assistance in purchasing these, including assistance in developing resettlement sites and their facilities; (h) provide public information; and (i) undertake vocational training. 33. Sub-contracted NGOs in each of the two areas will have a basic staffing dedicated to the project which will include: (a) a program manager: (b) an officer to prepare records of households and entitlements, including collaborating with the PMRU and DC's office to ensure that records are consistent; (c) an officer responsible for development of the resettlement site(s) and their facilities and for advice on possible locations of replacement land, work opportunities, and training available through the project; and (d) approximately one village resettlement worker per 100 project affected households which include businesses and landowners residing outside the area. Since the RAP is a new approach, the PMRU and program managers and higher staff will closely monitor the perfonnance of sub-contract NGOs and staffing levels may be modified in order to ensure that plan objectives are met. 34. Local Administration. Cooperation from the local administration is important. The Thana and the Union Parishad (UP) have responsibilities for services in their areas, and the UP represents the affected persons. The socio-economic surveys indicate that people in the affected areas prefer to have their UP involved in the compensation process, particularly in helping to identify landowners and entitled persons, and in the Grievance Committees. The UPs will have an advisor role in the compensation program and the UP chairman will be a member of the Grievance Comruittee Decisions on the use of compensation funds for local community facilities will be taken in consultation with the UP (or Municipality in the case of Sirajganj). The other key role requiring UP assistance is in detenrining resettlement sites which are acceptable to local people and host commrunities, and in encouraging large landowners to sell land to those whose land is acquired. 35. Banks. Compensation paid through the DC (CCL) plus top up amounts will in most cases be paid by cheque, and a delay in finding replacement land may arise, so PAPs in this situation will need bank accounts. To simplify the process and minimize complexity over payments, an arrangement will be made for a simplified procedure (see Section 4.1.4 for details) with one bank with local branches in Sanakandi and Sirajganj. Since the Rajshahi Krishi Unnayan Bank (RKUB) in Sirajganj has already agreed to a similar arrangement for the JMB, the PMRU is expected to approach this bank. 36. Linkages and Advice. To manage a system involving different organizations, close cooperation will be needed, including a common record keeping system of entitlements, compensation and services provided. This information will be compiled and shared jointly between the three main implementing organizations (DC's office, PMRU and sub-contracted NGOs), but responsibility for managing and maintaining records will lie with the PMRU. The PAPs will have representation in the implementation of this Plan, and will be encouraged to strengthen their own community. Given the limited numbers of PAPs, it will be appropriate to form a Local Implementation Group in each area, comprising PAPs representing the main different types of affected persons (landless, shopkeepers, farmers, etc.) They will represent their community with the contracted NGO, try to avoid disputes of problems at the outset, and assist in developing resettlement sites. A higher level Local Advisory and Liaison Committee will be set-up in each of the two project areas. This will comprise: Project Director PMRU, Deputy Director Resettlement, ADC Land, TNO, UP Chairman, program manager of sub-contracted organizations, and the Local Implementation Group representing PAPs. This committee is expected to meet at least every two months, and will resolve any major problems, and keep the different organizations and interest groups informed of progress and the implementation timetable. During construction, it will also form a channel for liaison with the contractors via the PMRU. ANNEX 3 Page 10 of 22 5. TIMETABLE FOR IMPLEMENTATION Overall Timetable of Works and Associated Compensation 37. Sirajgan; and Kalitola. The period between May and August 1995 is critical as Section 6 notice will need to be completed by then. The eviction and handling over site for the first year construction has to be completed by mid-January 1996 (Figure 8). 38. Sariakandi-Mathurapara Area. The timetable for civil works and compensation and resettlement in this area is outlined in Figure 9. The program for Kalitola Groyne will be the same as for Sirajganj since these works are scheduled to commence in 1996. The work schedule for retiring the BRE is not yet finalized and will depend on the rate of erosion and location of hard points. If erosion is rapid, then the situation must be reviewed during winter 1995-96, because there is a risk that the effective BRE could be eroded during the 1996 monsoon and this could threaten the project if Jamuna flood water joins the Bangali in a major flood. If this threat arises, then the acquisition and compensation process could be completed in the areas outside Sariakandi town for October 1996 construction of a retired BRE, and the alignment and PAPs must be identified during May-June 1996. 39. The critical periods for acquisition of the hard-point sites are the winter of 1995/96 (Nov- Feb) when all PAP entitlements in the envelope areas are determiined following the first notification of acquisition in November 1995, and April-September 1996 during which all compensation must be paid and all households living in the area needed relocate to new homesteads, including development and relocation to resettement sites and private purchase of homestead land. Between these dates, the Grievance Committee will resolve conflicts over compensation under the PMRU control, and the PMRU will assist in locating replacement land (particularly for homesteads). Critical Path for Resettlement Action Plan 40. In Sariakandi area, the key benchmark is for Section 3 notification for land acquisition to be made before November 1995 for all the area which might be needed. This means that the necessary GOB funds for land acquisition will have been approved. If part of the area is found not to be needed because erosion slows, then costs are saved. This is a point of no return because it is the latest that construction can be contracted for Winter 1996-7 placement, and is also a practical time for letting contracts given the likely time needed to process bids. If notifications have not been issued then there is no certainty of construction on time and delay of a year is implied. In Sirajganj area, the key benchmark is also for Section 3 notification for land acquisition to be made by or in June 1995 for all the reclamation area needed permanently by BWDB including the resettlement site, and for requisition agreements to be made on the same time scale to ensure that landowners understand the arrangement. This will allow for any part of the area not being khas land. The second benchmark is for Cultivation compensation and any land compensation to be paid by October 1995 ready for reclamation work to start. Agreed target dates for the RAP are shown in Table 3 below, which will be updated at negotiations based on the progress achieved. ANNEX 3 Page 11 of 22 Table 3: RAP Implementation Target and Benchmark dates to September 1996 Item No. Actions Completion Date I Contract signed with consultants to assist Resettlement Units Oct 30 '95 2 Operational budget for RUs approved and fund released Jul 31'95 3 Kalitola Groyne (K): Determine LA requirement. Submit LA proposal to DC Apr 15 '95 4 Sirajganj/Ranigram Groyne + reclamation area (SR): Determine LA requirements. Jul 31 '95 Submit LA proposal to DC. Finalize rental agreement with landowners, if this options is feasible. 5 Offer of employment to senior staff of Resettlement Units. Aug 30 '95 Posting of special LA officers (kanungo) with the DCs concerned 6 Submission of RAP to WB Sep 28 '95 7 Resettlement Units established and staff posted (include. transport, office, support Sep 15 '95 staff) 8 Contracting of local implementing NGOs Nov 10 '95 9 K/SR: Notice under Section 3 (General Notice) Oct 15 '95* lOa KISR: Start of preparation fieldwork for Joint Verification Oct 15 '95 l0b K/SR: Completion of field verification Oct 29 '95 WOc K/SR: Finalization of Joint Verification report and submission for approval Nov 15 '95 11 KISR: Final approval of LA proposal Nov 28 '95 12 K/SR: Notice under Section 6 Dec 12 '95 13 K/SR: Issuance ofID cards Dec15 '95 14 Compensation budget estimate by DC submited to BWDB Dec 20 '95 15 Mathurapara + Sariakandi (MS): Identify land requirement Nov 15 '95 16 MS: Submit LA proposal to DC Nov 30 '96 17 K/SR: Deposit of LA funds with DC Dec 24 '96 18 K/SR: Completion of payment of compensation as per Resettlement Policy Jan 10 '96 19 K/SR: Eviction-handing over Jan25 '96 20 MS: Eviction-handing over Sep15 '96 Note: During the period prior to November 1995, the legal provisions for dealing with land that may or may not be required, depending upon erosion, need to be clarified. * NGO sub-contracted to implementation consultants; started field work October 15, 1995. * Kalitola Section 3 notice issued earlier 41. Further Tasks When the BRE alignment is known (September-October 1996), the PMRU will assess the population and land let outside the retired BRE, and the risks and potential losses they face from erosion and flooding. The report will indicate expected losses and the likely reduction in losses (benefit) from alternative mitigation measures. 42. An independent evaluation of the impact of the resettlement plan impacts will be made in 1998 when all PAPs will have been compensated and have had a year of 'hormal" life following displacement. This will be based partly on the initial socio-economic survey plus monitoring records, comparison with a "control" area outside the project, plus a final evaluation survey to assess household economic situations in say March 1988 compared with March 1994. 6. BUDGET Resettlement Provisions 43. Table 4 shows the total estimates of households, businesses and land areas expected to be taken by components of the project. In the case of no more erosion, as a result of the bank protection works some 246 households with no homestead land of their own would be provided with small homestead plots bv the project, and 117 shops would also be helped. The owners of some 169 ha of land would receive compensation in the form of the cost of replacement land. The proposed BRE in Sariakandi area will, however, displace families from long established private homesteads two or more years after the award of contracts. It is very likely that homesteads can be avoided, but finalization of alignments wvill depend on the actual locations of the hard points. It is ANNEX 3 Page 12 of 22 likely that some erosion will continue. Erosion at the 1993 rate during 1995 and 1996 will mean that acquisition affects many more households in Mathurapara (Scenario 3) and to a less extent in Sariakandi (Scenario 2). In this case, it is expected that 220 households would be displaced in the two areas. In addition to 60 households displaced by the Kalitola Groyne works and the proposed BRE, and the same 140 hoseholds alreadv enumerated for Sirajganj. Table 4: Likely Land Acquisition and Displacement Impacts Impact Sirajganj Mathurapara NMathurapara Sariakandi Sariakandi BRE incl. maximum maximum minimum maximum Kalitola Householdno 140 10 81 64 64 20 homestead HH homestead only 0 0 8 7 24 31 Home & all LAnd in 0 0 1 I 9 15 0 area Home& partof land 0 0 8 0 9 9 in area Land in rea home ? nk 45 nk 63 nk outside Shop/business 116 0 6 0 1 1 + Acquired ha 8.01 9.7 64 9.7 18.2 28.3 Reqiuisitioned ha Appx. 1 5.2 77 6 5 0.5 nk - not known 44. The area of land to be acquired for all the works involved will be at a minimum 55.7 ha (although the Sirajganj area should involve little cost), but at a maximum about 118.5 ha would need to be acquired. It is important to note that part of this increase in area is land and homesteads which might erode in any case in 1995, or would have eroded in later years without the project. Any part of the area for which acquisition starts, but which is not needed due to slower erosion will not be acquired and will remain with the owner, but the project land uses specified in the proposal for land acquisition will include resettlement, enabling a small area of land (if available) to be used as a resettlement site(s). Some of the acquired areas for the hard points will in any case be used for the retired BRE, but this source of "double counting" in costs has been retained as an extra contingency. 45. Costs of Compensation Program The likely range of costs of implementing the RAP, and the distribution of these payments by main heading, and type of household (homestead) is shown in Table 5. The compensation packages are expected to cost a minimum of Tk 20-50 million, and a maximum of Tk 39.70 million if erosion continues to be rapid. The best estimate is the middle Mathurapara scenario combined with the low Sariakandi scenario (representing erosion at half the 1993 rate during both 1995 and 1996), giving Tk 31.15 million. A 30 percent contingency of Tk 9.35 million has to be added to cover the uncertainty of faster erosion, over the actual application of entitlements, and the need to compensate for relocation of some community infrastructure (schools and mosques), resulting in a total cost of Tk 40.50 million. The fixed costs of implementing the program total Tk 6.3 million (BWDB and partner organization costs), which is 13 percent of the total cost estimate of Tk 46.80 million. This excludes the costs of technical assistance and of NGO involvement in the initial phase in 1995. The highest certain costs are associated with the retired BRE because it will pass through part of Sanrakandi town. The best estimate costs breakdown by location as: 44 percent Mathurapara, 28 percent BRE and Kalitola Groyne, 19 percent Sirajganj and 10 percent Sairakandi. 46. Timing of Expenditure The expected timetable of implementation, of the land acquisition resettlement (where year I starts with the establishment of the PMRU) is: This could be khas land. ANNEX 3 Page 13 of 22 Sirajganj: land costs are incurred in year 1, any household and business costs in year 2 (second half). Hard points land costs are incurred in year 2; household and business costs in years 2-3. It is likely that some replacement of land will take place in year 3, but the provision is needed in year 2. BRE: all costs in year 3, unless the present BRE is threatened before that time, in which case the BRE will be retired in year 2. Staffing Costs: proportioned over the 2.5 years On this basis, the expected Resettlement Action Plan Budget breakdown, including contingencies, is given in Table 6. It is important to note that although the funds for all land and homestead related compensation in Sariakandi and Mathurapara need to be placed in year 1. The PAPs are likely to be using this to buy replacement land during year 2 and hence the PMRU will remain active during this period. These costs are expected to be bome our of the Government of Bangladesh contribution to project costs. Cost estimnates do not include technical assistance for implementation of the RAP which are included under the Supervisory Consultancy. Table 5: Estimated Compensation Impacts and Costs (1994 prices) ENTITLEMENT/ MATHURAPARA SARlAKANDI KALITOLA . MAX. IMPACT GROYNE BRE SrRAJGAN3 TOTAL cenario Scenario Scenario Scenario Scenario j I j 2 3 1 2 catl HH 10 63 81 64 64 9 11 140 305 ca2 HH 0 4 8 7 24 0 31 0 63 catr3 HH 0 6 11 15 26 ct4 HH 0 4 8 9 1 26 HHdisplaced 10 5 77 10S 71 i 112 10 50 140 420 Agricha acq 9.70 49.08 62.21 9.46 15.76 0.08 26.81 8 112.S5 Agric ha requis. 7 7 7 6 5 15 27 hstd ha cq 0 092 1.79 0.24 j 2.39 0.02 1.49 j ' 5.69 Compensation Cost, Tk 000s j I land 1931 977 2386 1665 2774 i 5 .5337 2000 i 2251 2 homestead land 235 454 61 606.5 35 683 j 177S. 3 mortgage 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 j 0 4lease 31 157 199 *30 so 86 72 408 , myati 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6crop 359 1819 2306 351 5S4 I 994 516 4400 7 siructure 20 351 594 134 564 52 555 211 1976 8 commercial 27 32 1870 1143 3045 9 timber tree 153 294 21 228 15 321 859 10fruittree 216 418 19 182 27 428 1055 II pond 12 fish 13occupiedhstd 50 315 405 320 320 45 55 1075 1900 14 rented businesw . . i j j i 36 5 36 15 land requisition 532 . 532 532 j 456 5 380 j j S821 1 1733 TOTAL COST Tk . 2.92 13.57 17.62 3.06 7.56 0.18 8.46 j 5.83 39.70 rnullions. . I Notc Table excludes establishnent coLs of BWDB. unplrnemnung agency cos and contngencies Table 6: Estimated Compensation Costs by year (Tk millions, 1994 prices) Category. Year 1 Year 2 Ycar3 _Total Si;rgai 3.41 2.47 0 5.8S Mathurapara-Sanakandi 0 16.63 0 16.63 Kalitola 0.18 0 0 0.1S BRE 0 0 8.46 8.46 Sub-total 3.59 19.10 8.46 31.15 Sub-total + 30% contingency 4.67 24.83 11.00 40.50 Stafling (PMRU and subcontracts 2.52 2.52 1.26 6.30 Total 1.19 27.35 12.26 46.80 Note Cost breakdown is based on rnrddie scenano for Mathurapsn and low erosion scenano for Sanakandi ANNEX 3 Page 14 of 22 Figure I ;; f S udy - GAISANDHA- B~~rahmapulro Righf \ <\lX As 8ANDH ^ *gtVXl Embankrment SARIAKANItL f .OGRA a v- SlRA.IGAJ FERRY GHAr "~~~~IE BCNTACTNK.} PRTETINPROJECTD EBRAHtMAPUTRA RIGHT B3ANK PRIORITY WORKS LOCATION PLAN ANNEX 3 Page 15 of 22 Fig= 2 Upstream Termination <<> ~Housing Zone I \\ st;E \\ Section e \\F\ Section C Shops Lad recioino New rvel Zonet G LanrccltoIo \ DsEe~~~~~~Zn \\K A ~~~~~~~Gardens < 0 100 200 300 400M Ic. Section D SCALEMao SIR AJGANJ Je~i\ renovation TOWHN o rf exslsninng Graveyard Housing Zone R Housig Zone P Shops Zone 0 School ShIpe ZbneM Housing Zone F - Houring Zones H S.T RBPP: RESETTLEMENT PLAN: SIRAJGANJ DIAGRAM OF SURVEY ZONES/AFFECTED AREAS ANNEX 3 Page 16 of 22 Figure 3 Section A 1 xic R iiUpstream Termination Exisling Rciriqoirr. , groyne -, - -Site for BWDB O&M premises Section C 1 \ _X\\\ New revetmen' Provisonal Site for . Reseti miunlty Country boat steps C Communiy Shops and Reception Contre Country boat steps \ \ Country boat stop* O 100 200 300 400M Sect\\ni t Section D SCALE Major SIRAJGANJ JO kV\X renovotion TOWN t\\ of existing Mei\ Courevetment Realigned downstrzm t formination ruc chatI School ( Downstream Sits for rselcated shopssTrmCto fNflz Saeo tar BWOB O&M premiss arn resement S prmie are Only indcative The d to ai Ferry ghat koflOtia and exatet wAil be adapted to I"able BSWOD owned iand plus additlonal area RBPP: RESETTLEMENT PLAN: SIRAJGANJ MAJOR PHYSICAL ELEMENTS OF THE RESETTLEMENT PLAN ANNEX 3 Page 17 of 22 Figure 4 ,Hand Tubewell ndividual RResttlement Plot t2LL2ilI r II -TI to1 no Shopping Area Ng. 1. Loaion wtin reclamtion are ic pramiononly. 2 The Iyoat IS onty incticaler. Final erraeengemt wUt be adapted t1 the location of the reettlement Wae wid with consulation o0 communrty concornmed. RBPP: RESETTLEMENT PLAN: SIRAJGANJ INDICATIVE LAY-OUT: RESETTLEMENT COMMUNITY I~~~~~~~~_ ANNEX-3 Page 18 of 22 Figure 5 * , , RECONSTRUCTrON OF KALITOI A GROYNE SARIAKANI 4 N-A..~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~. ' ~~*2~r~~~PROpQsEDSD LOCATrO OF HA~~~OPFOrATPO 4N RIPP: RESETTLEMENT PLAN LAY OUT OF WORKS AT SARIAKAND: M& bATHURAPAtA Organogram for Key Staff of Resettlement Component of PMRU XProlct llanagement end Resottl ment Unit/ suOrgraor subofice sub-office Subcoractor Programme Manager Resettlement and public Database manager Resettlement and public Program.e Manager I relations officer relations officer Programme officer ( Revenue officer Computer operator Revenue officer I Programme officer (resettlement site) I I (resettlement site) Programme officer I Accountant Accountant | Programme officer (advice and records) ! I (advice and records) Surv r s Surveyor Vlilage resettlement wo(krs /ge,V,89 resettlement workers P R O J E C T A F F E C T E D P E R S O N S Note: PMRu stafI exNckuds clari & bw*w graf staff 1=i f ANNEX-3 Page 20 of 22 Fieure 7 sI l! d i W ~~~~~~~~~~~~ I00|t AhMU Pape 21 of 22 Figtsi 8 - -- I~~~~~~~~~~~s1 ffSETrLEMENT AND LAND ACOIJI S N PROGRAMME OF WORKS FOR lPP AT SA81M I MAlIRAPARA HARD POINT SITES £4'... ~ ~ . .Amgr A.PmI - .-r-.6. Dbmt amyFb~ APrd Aiv A- -.* Augui S1UImb -- a-nd 1-1ae1dda---- - B_- ______ -=__ Id..icaban d sad twquu3"_ SuO~a_ .IL _..ahO _ ___ k o _ mqme*o_ O -m apptnd e la prnpoad _ _ fl.m. umdw Se~ g laImaa dat cw_ OIuaa ht a.d E" auiaNm. DC l umsa budp eal" toa I. "sUO Fllm of M Cempmsaam ICl a. Puidsm _u' a KA .a b.uaabdgb. Pupu u?_d,__w lb. _ I .. Icempuwasmn oAP EAamad b.hdmgam. "as: FwdPmMid,qinam.NWd aWUoma to 13 :11 ANNEX 4 Page 1 of 9 BANGLADESH RIVER BANK PROTECTION PROJECT OPERATIONS AND MAINTENANCE SUPPORT A. Monitorine and Maintenance The project provides for the establishment of an O&M Unit in BWDB dedicated to the monitoring and maintenance of the project bank protection works after their completion. This Unit is expected to serve as a nucleus which may be expanded to provide the O&M of future bank protection works constructed along the Brahmaputra River. The monitoring responsibilities of the O&M Unit are: (a) Monitoring the performance of the structural works, including the stability of the armor layer, the deformation of the falling apron and the stability of earthworks. (b) Monitoring river planform changes, particularly in the close vicinity upstream and downstream that may have an impact on the security and effectiveness of the works. (c) Monitoring flow velocities, water levels and channel geometry, in the vicinity of the works, at least four times a year. (d) Preparing monthly reports and an annual summary report covering these subjects; the annual report will contain a review of priorities for major maintenance and identify any constraints that may be adversely affecting the effective operation of the O&M Unit. 2. The mantenance activities would include the following tasks: (a) Carry out routine preventative maintenance of the structural works. (b) Carry out any additional bank stabilization measures that may become necessary as a consequence of extreme or unexpected morphological conditions or the more rapid development of bank erosion upstream or downstream than anticipated. Such works would be in the nature of emergency measures but carried out to established engineering specifications, to hold the situation until contractors can be mobilized to construct any permanent additional works required. (c) Maintenance of specified minimum levels of stocks of construction material, fuels, precast units and the operational plant at strategic locations for rapid deployment as required. Some circumstances leading to the emergency tasks described under 2(b) that could be envisaged are: exceptionally high velocities due to a rare combination of conditions that displace some of the armor layer; exceptionally deep scour at the toe of the revetment that results in some local slope failure; localized slumping of the armored slope due to severe earthquake effects; ANNEX 4 Page 2 of 9 the development of an unusually severe embayment upstream of a revetinent that threatens the cross-bar. B. Plant and Equinment Reauirements Plant and Equipment Categories 3. Plant and equipment requirements fall into the following functional categories: * Monitoring of river parameters such as directional velocity measurements and general bathymetric survey. Monitoring of structural performance. This will require more detailed and accurate survey above and below water level to identify and quantify armor movement and slope deformation. The same equipment would be suitable for monitoring the placement of materials in the course of the remedial work. Position fixing equipment of sufficient accuracy for each task, suitable for both monitoring and remedial work. Land and water transport adequate for carrying out the survey work at all times of the year. Interpretation of aerial photography and satellite imagery, particularly for large scale planform monitoring. * Land facilities for loading, offloading, storing and stockpiling construction materials. * ~..Water transport and floating plant for movement of armor and other materials the construction site, and their controlled placement for both routine and urgent remedial work. T his equipment must be capable of operation at all river stages. * Facilities for holding floating plant in position while placing or dumping material. A listing of the essential equipment to be procured by the project in order to enable execution of the above functions is given in Table 1. Monitoring Equipment 4. Structural Performance Monitorin. Above water level surveys would be carried out by conventual theodolite and levelling techniques. Regular traverses along fixed lines before and after each monsoon will identify any subsidence/slumping and movement of marked armor blocks. Local benchmarks would be checked at intervals of not more than five years by second order levelling the nearest national benchmark. Below water level echo sounder traverses would be carried out along fixed lines at the same frequency as for the above water line survey. Any areas of apparent movement would be investigated using side scan sonar equipment and diver reconnaissance. Areas of unusually deep scour would be similarly inspected. The deformation of the apron would be particularly closely monitored. Position fixing accuracy must be as good as possible (better than ± Im is the order required to pick up incipient failures). Since the distance from the bank is not very great and dry season velocities will not be too high, it may be feasible to use a tag line fixed between a monument on the bank and a moored vessel; ANNEX 4 Page 3 of 9 a small boat equipped with the echo-sounder would then follow this line. It would still be necessary to check the position of the boat at intervals using a land-based EDM or similar equipment. The more accurate position fixing system (such as manufactured by Racal and Motorola) will be required in higher flows although they are costly and require specialist servicing. 5. River Planforn Monitorine. The bankline 10 km upstream and 5 km downstream of all bank stabilization works would be surveyed by land-based techniques at least twice while the river is within bank and twice while it is out of bank. In reaches where active erosion is taking place, the survey frequency would be increased to montWy during the high flow period. Landsat TM imagery computer compatible tapes for two scenes would be procured as soon after each monsoon as possible. River bankline, thalweg and char bankline movement would be analyzed in conjunction with bathymetric survey to give warning of potentially dangerous bend development. 6. Monitorin2 Velocity and Channel Properties. Near bank point velocities would be measured along the same fixed lines as used for structural monitoring (para. 4), and at 200/o, 50%/O, and 80% of water depth to provide velocity profiles during the peak flow period. The object is to build up a better picture of the pattern of velocities in the vicinity of the works for varying discharges and morphological conditions. These can be used to interpret any movement of the armor material and to improve design standards for future works. Equipment requirements will be normal directional flow meters but the necessary winch must be heavy duty to permit the use of sufficiently large sinker weights. Bathymetric surveys would be carried out by either cross-sectioning or longitudinal traverses (or a combination), at sufficient frequency to provide the requisite detail for assessing scour development. One survey would be made in February/March and a second in June/July. If any severe scour is identified, then a further survey is to be carried out in August/September and October/November. The extent of the survey would be the full width of the river anabranch for a distance of 5 km upstream and 5 km downstream. The object is to help assess any persistent consequence of the works, to provide further information on channel dynamics, and to provide warning of impending attack. Equipment requirements for bathymetric survey will be normal echosounders. For both velocity measurement and bathymetric survey, position fixing with an accuracy of better than i I Om, and preferably X 5m, will be required. The survey vessel used must be capable of holding a stable position during the monsoon season, while having as shallow a draft as possible. 7. Plan Update and Reporting. The main equipment requirement will be the microcomputer hardware and software for interpreting the satellite imagery. Hardware and software will also be required for bathymetric contour plotting, data processing, analysis and storage. Maintenance Plant and Equipment 8. Maintenance. Routine maintenance would normally be carried out during the low flow period and the plant and equipment requirement can be simpler than that used for emergency work during the monsoon period. It is anticipated that routine maintenance would consist mainly of dumping additional armor material in areas where the armor layer has become too thin or the apron has not launched evenly. However, it may also be necessary to place some new revetment complete with geotextile if, for examnple, the upstream embayment is threatening a revetment termination or cross-bar. Since the design is intended to be reasonably conservative, it is not anticipated that the magnitude of this task will be great in most years. Provision has been made in the cost estimates for 1.0% of the total armor material cost every year, and 5% every five years. Clearly five years is an average figure and if a major flood occurred, then the additional works might have to be carried out sooner. In order to avoid having to have a large amount of plant committed to this task, it would probably be prudent to limit the ANNEX4 Page 4 of 9 BWDB O&M Unit to core plant and equipment that would be supplemented by hiring or employing local contractors as necessary. 9. The minimum equipment required for maintenance would be a powerfil tug, barges for transporting armor and geotextile sandbags, a land-based crane and possibly a barge-mounted hydraulic arm for placing material accurately. Accommodation could also be pontoon mounted. Depending on the lessons learnt during construction of the works, the underwater geotextile filter may be laid either in sheet form or in the form of geotextile sandbags; the later being considerably easier but possibly more costly. Position fixing would have to be accurate for this purpose but need not be sophisticated if conventional procedures give adequate accuracy. Urgent Bank Stabilization Measures. These works are likely to be necessary, if at all, during the high flow period. Thus the major requirements are engine power and the ability to hold position while placing/dumping in point velocities that may locally be more than 3.5 m/s (mean velocity less than 2 m/s). Accuracy of placing would not be the primary concern but obviously the more accurate the better. The material used would probably be mainly 0.75 cubic meter geotextile sandbags that could be dumped or placed. C. Proposed OrEanizational Maintenance Unit General 10. The organizational structure of the Operations and Maintenance Unit is illustrated in Figure I and will broadly reflect its functions. These functions, as described above (paras. 1, 2), will consist primarily of monitoring and evaluation of the performance of the works and of their impact on the river's behavior. Also required will be the subsequent planning, scheduling and execution of the necessary maintenance and remedial works. These maintenance and remedial works will need to be carried out and supervised to an appropriate standard and within an acceptable timefame, and their subsequent performance also monitored and evaluated, along with the rest of the works. Functions 11. The O&M Unit's principal functions are: (a) Monitoring and Evaluation. One of the major challenges for the operation and rmintnance unit will be successfully monitoring and evaluating the performance of the works, and their impact on the river's behavior. Such monitoring and evaluation will be essential if a rational maintenance and remedial works program is to be planned and scheduled, and if the success of the works in continuing to restrain the river, over the longer term, is to be confidently predicted. (b) Maintenance. The maintenance activities can be categorized as follows: * land based (the river embankment and cross-bars), * river based (the revetments and aprons), * routine preventative, and * emergency repairs. ANNEX 4 Page 5 of 9 The Organizational Structure 12. In addition to recognizing the importance of its stated functions, the other key consideration in determining the structure of the organization is the geographical distribution of the works for which it will be responsible. The project works will be situated at Sirajganj, Sariakandi and Mathurapara, over a reach of some 60 km of river. It is considered that a single maintenance unit, based at Sirajganj, will be adequate to cope with both Sirajganj and the Sariakandi/Mathurapara sites. As, however, further bank protection works may eventually be constructed elsewhere, covering locations further to the south and to the north over a reach of 150 km or more, it is recommended that a Head Office/District Office organization be implemented. A second district office can then be set up further north in the future without entailing extensive reorganization. As Sirajganj is the most important of the project sites, it is proposed that the Head Office of the organization should be located there. However, in order to avoid Sirajganj District dominating the resources of the organization, particularly with a view of future expansion, it is felt important that the District Office should be physically separate from the Head Office. 13. Head Office. The Head Office would have overall responsibility for the successful operation of the organization, but in order to maintain accountability, and be better in touch with operations, it should be located at Sirajganj and not in Dhaka. The Head Office would also be responsible for the Central Services Groups, the River Planform Monitoring Group, the Marine Survey Group, the Survey Equipment Maintenance Workshop, and the Central Casting and Storage Yard. 14. The River Planform Monitorin! GrouD would be responsible for identifying the priorities for and specifying the necessary detail for the bathymetric surveys which are assumed to cover 5 km both upstream and downstream of the revetment works. The purpose of this monitoring will be to identify any significant changes in the alignment and regime of the anabranches on which the revetment works are to be constructed. In view of the large areas involved, analysis would be by visual identification of areas of erosion and deposition using bed contour maps. It is proposed that these Maps be generated by the SIMPLEPLOT and GRIDDER software packages using data selected from a central INFAMEX data base of survey records. This work should be able to be carried out on a personal computer and printer, and would require a computer-literate engineer familiar with data entry, extraction and analysis on a computer. This unit would also be responsible for procurement of the appropriate satellite imagery tapes and their processing and analysis using a tape-reader and micro computer. ARCINFO software, and a digitizing tablet, would enable identification of river movements and correlation to existing survey bases. This work, in conjunction with the bathymetric survey, would enable the development of any potentially dangerous bend formations to be observed and predicted at an early stage. Training for local staff by technical assistance consultants in parallel with the first few years' operation of the system would ensure satisfactory operation of the unit, and the potential for its continuation under local operation. 15. The Marine Survey GrouD would be responsible for carrying out both the structural surveys of the revetment works and the bathymetnc surveys for the river planform monitoring. It would be responsible to the Central Services Group Executive Engineer and will provide data to the District Office and to the River Planform Monitoring Group. The Marine Survey Group would consist of both land-based and marine-based staff. The land-based staff would be required to set up and maintain the positioning system, be it "Trisponder" or "Microfix" equipment, and to provide land-based support for communication and supplies to the marine staff. The marine staff would be required to be familiar and competent with the equipment and procedures for marine survey using electronic position fixing, echo sounder and side scan sonar equipment. This equipment is necessary in order to ensure sufficiently accurate data for the structural survey work. The inaccuracies and cumbersome nature of traditional position fixing systems do not allow accurate correlation between an echo sounder read-out and a boat position: especially in rapid river flow when boat position would only be able to be maintained steady for ANNEX 4 Page 6 of 9 a few movements at a time. Moreover, the speed of electric position fixing would allow the surveys to be carried out more quickly and permit higher utilization of the expensive echo sounder and side scan equipment. However, whilst echo sounder equipment is now acknowledged to be reliable, side scan sonar and position fixing systems are less so. The survey technicians would therefore be required to be able to undertake basic repairs on site. 16. The Survey EauiDment Maintenance Worksho, would, where necessary, retain a second "back-up" set of marine survey instruments together with a comprehensive repairs kit, and be capable of regular servicing and maintenance of both the marine and land survey equipment. 17. The Central Casting and Storaee Yard would be responsible for the manufacture and storage of the concrete blocks required for maintaining the revetments and for the storage of other materials required in the maintenance of the works. The first year's maintenance requirements estmated at 5% of the total would be provided by the contractor for the initial construction of the works, but the subsequent years' demands (estimated at 1% or approximately 20,000 blocks per annum) would be required to be manufactured. The other plant and equipment at the yard would consist of what would be required to allow movement of materials and finished products (concrete blocks or geotexfile mattresses) around the yard and onto the maintenance gang's transport (which would most likely be barge or, to a lesser extent, flat bed trailer). The equipment at the yard could also double in an emergency as a secondary land-based maintenance unit (crane, dozer and dump truck). Some revision of these arrangements would be required if rock armoring were to be used in one or more of the revetments. A stockpile of rock armor would have to be maintained. 18. The District Office would be responsible for specifying and progrmming both the land- and marine-based survey needs. This responsibility will stem naturally from its overall responsibility for the integrity of the river training works. The District Office would therefore have an all-important data analysis, monitoring and evaluation function. This will involve storage of the cross-sectional survey information for the revetment works on a data base such as "INFAMEX" and its retrieval for report and evaluation purposes on a package such as "SANDS", which will enable viewing and comparison of cross sections of the structures, and whether or how they are changing with time. The "SANDS/INFAMEX" data base would also allow correlation or river flood events with the corresponding damage caused to the revetments or changes in the river bed planform. 19. The District Land Survey GrouD would be responsible for the bankline survey which is proposed for 10 km upstream and 5 km downstream of all bank stabilization works. The frequency of these surveys is proposed to be at least four times annually for the whole of each reach (twice "in-bank" and twice "out of bank") and probably monthly for reaches where active erosion is taking place. As this involves almost 40 km of bank for each survey, and more than one location may require monthly monitoring, it is possible that two or more land survey groups may be required. This would also depend on the difficulty of terrain and time taken to carry out each survey. Traditional survey equipment, rather than "hi-tech" tacheometry, is proposed because of cost, ease of operation and reliability. Cross sectional survey data produced for any embankments related to river revetments would be transferred to the "INFAMEX/SANDS "data base, to enable checking of overall embankment stability and correlation with any revetment erosion. The Land Survey Group will also be responsible for setting out of the shore stations which will enable the Marine Survey Group to position themselves for the structural performance monitoring echo sounder traverses. 20. The Marine Maintenance GrouD would be responsible for carrying out both routine preventative maintenance and urgent bank stabilization measures. Where appropriate, it will also provide the barges needed for materials transport for the Land Based Maintenance Group. The major part of the ANNEX 4 Page 7 of 9 Marine Maintenance Group's work would be transport and either dumping or placing of concrete blocks to repair or extend the revetment works. During be monsoon season at least one barge would be permanently loaded with a full cargo of blocks allowing quick dumping should any scour holes or erosion of aprons become evident. The minimum loaded draught for a bottom dump, split hopper or riffler barge of 60 ton capacity is about 2m and the greatest problem of draught will be found with the tugs which, if 650 HP capacity, will probably need 3m or 4m draught. To facilitate quick plugging of very active and/or dangerous erosion, it is therefore proposed that a larger barge of the order of 150 ton capacity be procured (Table 1). To ensure access in as many situations as possible, the other barge to be procured would be of a lower capacity, say 60 tons-perhaps requiring a lower power and shallower draught tug. 21. Dumping by barge could take place in not less than say 3m depth of water. This would be approximately 4m out from the crest of the revetment in normal low flow conditions, say LWL + 2m, allowing for clearance above the blocks dumped during construction. In similar conditions, a pontoon mounted with a hydraulic arm would be able to place blocks within about 30m of the crest, i.e., to approximately LWL. A large land-based crane with a boom of the order of 40m long will be required to carry out repairs necessary above that level. A suitable crane would be the RB (Lincoln) CH 50 which can be fitted with booms up to 5 Im long. In this case, a 39m long boom would be appropriate. The crane would then be able to stand on the revetment, lift blocks from a flat-bed, and place them up to 30m out onto the revetment, i.e., to within the range of pontoon mounted hydraulic arm. It suggested that the concrete blocks could be tied together into "slabs". This would allow quicker and easier placing of the large numbers of blocks which construction or repair of the revetments (above LWL) may require. A slab of eight 550 mm cubes will weigh approximately 3.2 tonnes (depending on type of aggregate), and for the 720 mm cubes approximately 7.2 tonnes. The CH 50 can place 1.6 tonnes at 34m, or 12 tonnes at lOm, i.e., 4 No. and 30 No. 550 mm cubes, 2 No. and 13 No. 720 mm cubes, or I No. and 8 No. 850 mm cubes. Thus, the CH 50 can place the largest cubes at full radius and eight of the largest cubes even at 12m radius. Such a crane, however, weighs nearly 50 tonnes and would require a crest width of 6 meters. The necessary crest width is allowed for in the design. If any dredging work were required, for instance, to enable extension of the lengths of revetment, a local dredging contractor would be brought in specifically to accomplish these works. 22. The Land Based Maintenance GrouD will primarily be involved in dry season construction or reconstruction of embankments and cross bars. The overriding importance of properly controlled compaction dictates that appropriate plant and equipment be used. Since such equipment is available to local contractors, it would not be procured under the project, but obtained by procurement of the services of suitable contractors by BWDB's standard tendering procedures. It has been assumed a large element of the earthmoving could be conducted manually, and by contract labor. The land-based unit includes the heavy crawler crane which could unload concrete blocks at the site-specific storage yards, and also assist in construction/repair of revetment sections where placing of the concrete blocks is required, as detailed in the notes on the Marine Maintenance Group (para. 22). D. Technical Assistance for Maintenance SuDDort Training Program 23. It is proposed that training of BWDB staff in works supervision, quality control, instrumentation and management be undertaken by secondment of these personnel to the consultant's team for the supervision of construction of the works. Further, contractor(s) will be required to give practical training to assigned BWDB staff in the use of specialized instrumentation and equipment of the type to be used later in the monitoring and maintenance of the works. Payment to the contractor(s) for this service (included in the bidding document Bills of Quantities) will be subject to the Engineer's ANNEX 4 Page 8 of 9 certification that a satisfactory standard of training was provided. Further, provision has been made for the contractor(s), under a separate contract, to provide assistance to BWDB for a period of up to two years after completion of the works. This assistance would provide training and practical experience in the monitoring, operation and maintenance of the works. The general procedures for operation and maintenance will be covered in the O&M Manual to be prepared by the consultants during construction in consultation with the contractor(s) and BWDB. The perfornance of the project works will be required to be fully monitored and evaluated, and their impact on the river planform quickly recognized and analyzed. In order to properly evaluate the behavior of the revetments and the river planform, and to modify the monitoring program in response to that behavior, a detailed knowledge of the design criteria and assumptions will be required. Moreover, the design criteria may need refinement in response to the observed behavior. This is a very different function and requires a totally different mode of training and support to the advice on operation and maintenance provided by the contractor's personnel. These roles would most naturally be executed by staff of the consultants responsible for the original design. Provision has been made for a technical assistance program to provide this service for the first two years after the completion of the works. Such an arrangement would enable optimum maintenance requirements to be formulated with the minimum of effort. It would also facilitate early recognition of any unforeseen behavior of the works or of the river in response to the works. Monitoring and Maintenance Advisors 24. Monitorins and Evaluation SuDDrto The project would provide the following technical assistance for a period of two years: (a) full time River Training Engineer (RTE), and (b) part time Hydraulic Engineer/Morphologist (HEM). These personnel would provide all the assistance required at leve 2 in the organization, and the RTE would, in addition, give technical advise to management at level 1. The River Training Engineer's duties would be: (a) Advising on the planning programming and resourcing for appropriate survey, routine preventative maintenance and emergency maintenance in consultation with senior BWDB and contractor's personnel. (b) Monitoring performance of survey, evaluation and maintenance teams and reallocating resources, re-programming as required. (c) Supervising the work of the HEM in identifying unpredicted or potentially dangerous behavior of embankment work, revetment works and river planfomn. (d) Identifying, in conjunction with the HEM, any deviation in data or behavior from design criteria or assumptions. (e) Observing river bank movement relative to the BRE and advising on retirement of the BRE. (f) Identifying with the HEM priorities for future investment. 25. The role of the Hydraulic Engineer/Morphologist would be to train the Unit's staff in order to ensure collection of appropriate data, the validity of that data and its correct interpretation and evaluation to ensure adequate monitoring of the works. This specialist would therefore liaise closely with the proposed local Data Analysis and Monitoring Engineers whose roles would be similarly defined for the revetments for the river planform analysis. Specific duties for this training and assistance role would therefore be to assist the local engineers in: ANNEX 4 Page 9 of 9 (a) agreeing with the RTE an appropriate survey program, and supervising that program to ensure valid date collection; (b) specifying appropriate satellite imnagery for procurement by the BWDB and its interpretation and evaluation; (c) supervising data storage on the relevant data bases and its subsequent retrieval for perfornance analysis for both revetrnent profiles and river planform using appropriate software packages; (d) review of data collected for both river characteristics and perfomiance of the works and its comparison with the specific design criteria and assumptions for the works; and (e) refinement of river behavior predictors. This input could conceivably be achieved on an intermittent basis with, say, a three month initial input to ensure implementation of the survey and satellite imagery program and subsequent inputs to ensure the continuing process of data collection, storage and analysis at appropriate junctions. 26. Maintenance Management SuDDort. The project would provide counterpart advisors for each level of the O&M Unit's management for a period of two years. The positions (Table 1) and duties of these advisors at each level would be as follows: (a) A Chief Construction and Maintenance Advisor (level 1, would assist management in the long term and day-today running of the O&M Unit, in planning and scheduling maintenance operations and production of materials for maintenance purposes, and to advise in the procurement of plant for current and future needs; (b) An Engineering Advisor (level 3) would advise on the execution of construction and maintenance work, and advise the Land and Marine Survey Groups in consultation with the Data Analysis and Monitoring Engineer; and (c) A Construction Supervisor (level 4) would advise the Maintenance Units and the Central Casting and Storage Unit on the practical aspects of construction and maintenance. Monitoring Equipment Deployment Training 27. Training in the use of marine survey equipment, survey data base management, analysis and evaluation, and satellite imagery processing and analysis is required. Pro urement of the equipment for the above activities will need to be supported by appropriate training packages. It is proposed that the procurement of the relevant equipment should include an initial period when the equipment supplier would be required to carry out the activity for one complete package of the relevant work. The advantage of this approach is that the BWDB would then be confident that the whole system works and that no unforeseen problems would arise on these areas of the work for which only outline work procedures were provided. In the cases of the survey data base and its use, and the satellite imagery processing and analysis, the RTE and HEM could provide the appropriate software and support. The marine survey equipment and its use is, however, very specialized and it is proposed to let a contract for the initial survey of all structures and the desired area of river planform. The contract would include for training of the client's staff while executing the survey and also for handover off the survey equipment and appropriate spares on completion. ANNEX 4 Table 1 Table 1: Procurement List of O&M Equipment, Plant and Vehicles TotalNo. A. Survey Equinment 1. Land Based Equipment - Theodolite 2 - Level and staff 2 - 100m Tape and Repair Unit 2 2. Marine Survey Equipment - Survey Vessel: aluminum hull, twin engine, 40ft long, equipped with winch, derrick, accommodation, etc. (including mechanical spares) I - Position Fixing Equipment (Microfix or similar) 2 - On-Board Personal Computer (PC) 1 - Side-Scan Sonar (Imaginex 855 or similar) I - Echo Sounder 1 - Hydrographic Survey Computer Program 1 - On-Board 43 x-y Plotter 1 - On-Board Printer 1 - Shore-Based Printer 1 - Recording Tide Gauge I - Current Meter (direct reading, electromagnetic) 1 3. Computer Equipment for Survey Data Processine (a) Hardware - Model 486 PC (80mb, 4mb RAM) 2 - Dot Matrix Printer (24 pm. wide carriage) 2 - A2 Color Printers 2 (b) Software - SANDS (including license for INFAMEX data base) 1 - SIMPLEPLOT and GRIDDER/CONTOURER 1 4. Computer Equipment for Satellite Imaxerv Processinx - Model 486 Computer (PC) 1 - Digitizer (Al size) I - Plotter (AI size) I - GIS Software: PC ARC (INFO Module), PC TINS, DGPS, Trimble, Hydro, Land 8 - Contour, Profile. B. Marine and Land Plant 1. Tug (650 HP) 1 2. Barge (150 tonne) 1 3. Barge (60 tonne) 1 4. Pontoon (with hydraulic arm) 1 5. RB CH 50 crane 1 C. Vehicles 4WD Land Cruiser 2 Cars 3 4WD Pick-Up I Jeep 2 RIVERRANKJPGummhI PRQJo OPEPRATIONS AND MAINTENANCE (O&M tINIT ORGANOGRAM MANAGEMENT LEVELS Superintending Engineea O&M L STRATEGIC logra Cimrcl MANAGEMENT Central Scrvice Group Executive Engineer 2. MONITORING. EVALUATION. WORK PLANNING SCHEDULING rOR SURVEY AND MAIN'TENANCEi WORK Strucbzn Monitoring ii~~~ Survey Equipment River Planform Moni Sbwtu MoniofingGroupMaintenance Workshop (Owup Sub-dvisional Engineer Sub-divisional Engineer Electronic Engineer (Du anlyi + Monitorng) Marine Survey GrouAp NI Land Survey Gmup ~~~~~~~~~~- Boat Baiwd Technicians MARINE SURVEY - Land Base Technicians 4. WORKS II ~~~~MAINTENANCE Marie msntnmncoLand Band Mannw ICauzacasting & SloaU IMPLEMIENTATION SupervsmsaTeiaddeq doozA.&Tecbidin &V rwl .Irs ANNEX 5 Page 1 of 7 BANGLADESH RIVER BANK PROTECTION PROJECT Environmental Impact Assessment 1. In considering the possible enviromnental impacts of the project, it is important to remain aware of the scale of the works in relation to the natural processes that are occurring due to bank erosion by the Brahmaputra river. The natural condition along the right bank of the river is that of extensive erosion. The project's bank stabilization works are relatively small, both in area and in their effect when set against the present river regime. World Bank and FAP draft Guidelines for Environmental Impact Assessment have been followed in the assessment of environmental impacts. A. Assessment and Mitination of Siynificant Imnacts Brick Maling 2. Backeround. Because of the severe shortage of stone in the country and the high cost of tansporting it from the border areas where it is available, it is common practice in Bangladesh to crush bricks for use as coarse aggregate in concrete. Brickfields are developed on rented land close to a source of clay, and are temporary works operating only in the dry season. Traditionally, brick kilns have used timber or coal as fuel, with a preference for timber which is a locally produced resource. To preserve the rapidly dwindling stocks of timber, a prohibition on timber firing in brickfields was introduced in 1983/84. Nevertheless, timber is still extensively used in present brick-making operations. To produce 100,000 bricks, brickfields require about 23 tonnes of coal for firing, or 57 tonmes of timber. 3. Impacts. Whilst in operation, the brick works deny land for cultivation. Where clay is close to the surface, firmers will often sell the top few feet for brick-making, and deep localized borrow pits are created which have no future use either for crops or artisanal fisheries. However, the main concern in environmental terms is the use of timber as fuel in the brick works. The options open for the main revetment armor layer involve the use of either brick or crushed stone aggregates for the manufacture of cement concrete blocks, or the importation of quarry rock. Because of the large quantities of materials involved and the unpredictability of logistical constraints on the supply of the materials, it is considered prudent to plan for the possible use of all three options. The final choice, which may include a combination of the options, will be made during the bid evaluation stage. The minimum project requirenent would be 17.5 million bricks (equivalent to the annual output from 13 double-burner brick works) if rock armor is used. If bricks were used as the only source of aggregate, the requirement of over 150 million bricks would be equivalent to the annual output from 117 double-burner brick works. The project would demand a minimum of an extra fuel use equivalent to 4,000 tonnes of coal or about 10,000 tonnes of timber, increasing (with the use of brick aggregate) to 35,000 tonnes of coal or about 87,000 tonnes of timber. Within the project area the timber would normally come from the village forests (the copses of fruit, shade trees and banboo planted around the villages). There is concern lest the recent trend in the use of bamboo roots to fire brick kilns may, in the longer term, reduce the stock of bamboo, which is the main housing material for katcha homes (more than 90% of rural housing). Whilst this increase in brick production locally would certainly provide a positive benefit in the form of increased local labor and services during the life of the project, the continuing use of timber for brick works in the area is a matter of considerable ANNEX 5 Page 2 of 7 concern. This concern arises from the incremental impact on timber resources that the project would impose in the present apparently uncontrolled situation. 4. Mitigation. A minimnum number of bricks are required for the project and the full impact of production cannot be offset by mitigation. There will be a degree of land degradation and localized increased in dust and soot levels during the project period. The use of fuel cannot be avoided, but a contractual imposition can be placed on the civil works contractor whereby he is obliged to obtain bricks only from specifically approved coal-only fired kilns. This has to be enforced through independent, regular monitoring of brick suppliers by the Engineer. The question of the larger scale use of bricks as aggregate for the main armonng for the bank protection works is more difficult. The brickfields will bnng considerable local employment for the production period, which must be seen as positive benefit, while the use of quarried rock could add significantly to the cost of materials. There are two possible ways by which this problem can be reduced: (a) place a contractual obligation on the contractor to guarantee to obtain bricks from specified, coal-only fired kilns, enforced through independent inspection of the designated brick works by the Engineer, as part of project monitoring; and (b) use either gravel aggregate or rock, which would reduce both the project related impacts and land degradation but involve a lower local employment benefit and a higher cost of materials. Both these options have been incorporated into the project's ICB contract documents (Table 1, Table 2). Navigation 5. BackgrouM. The Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authonty (BIWTA) classifies river routes and maintains channel depths by dredging where necessary. Their statutory obligation is to maintain main channels at a Least Available Depth (LAD) of 3.6m-3.9m, while the non-perennial routes are to be maintained at a LAD of l.5m-1.8m. Within the project area, the non-perennial LAD is applied. At Sirajganj there is a railway ferry between the town and Jaganathaganj. There are two inter-city train services each day using the ferry at Sirajganj, together with local trains. A rough estimate, based on usual coach numbers/capacity, would suggest a daily ferry traffic of about 2,500 passengers (no coaches are shipped). Private traffic is more difficult to assess. The BIWTA maintains a pontoon station for river cargo vessels, which could be used by the contractor for material supply to site. Additional to this major traffic by ferries and motor vessels is the traffic by country boats. These are small vessels of extremely shallow draft, capable of loads of up to 35 tons. Country boats moor at any convenient spot. At Sirajganj the majority of the larger country boats currently moor immediately to the south of the existing revetment but a few use the bay downstream of Ranigram Groyne. At Sariakandi there is a country boat landing either side of the Kalitola groyne. The landing is extensively used, providing a direct link from the left bank to Sariakandi and Bogra markets. In Mathurapara there is no defined landing. Char formation along the existing right bank provides a shallow, sheltered harbor for small fishing boats and a few country boats. The banks are very high and steep at this point, and landings are generally made only by fishermen. 6. .Imacats. The possible impacts on navigation relate mainly to the possible reduction of LAD by deposition of sediments released in dredging works and the interference caused by the floating discharge lines. There is the possibility of some minor effect from the former on the moorings downstream of the works at Sirajganj, but this is expected to be small in relation to the scale of natural channel morphological changes. It may also be necessary for the contractor to undertake some channel development, particularly in the Sariakandi/Mathurapara area, if he intends to use motor vessels to bring in materials, as there is no suitable landing for such boats at present. There is likely to be no disruption to the use of country boats ANNEX 5 Page 3 of 7 during the construction period. Indeed, given the nature of the site at Sariakandi/Mathurapara, it is likely that there will be an increase of country boat use as a result of the project, which would provide a positive benefit to a significant portion of the local river commnunities. 7. Mitigation. The impacts on navigation are thus likely to be small, and experienced only under dry season conditions and for short periods during the construction phase. There would be no long term adverse impact. Conditions have been written into the contract specifications to ensure that all impacts on navigation are minimized (Table 2). Sources of material of hydraulic fill will be sited on the western side of the main river channel to obviate interference to navigation from the floating pipelines. Sedimentation of the main shipping channels is therefore unlikely to be a problem if the works are executed to the normal international standards and properly supervised by the Engineer. Providing motor vessel berths at Sariakandi/Mathurapara may also disturb sediments, but these are more likely to temporarily impact on local artisanal fisheries than on any other river traffic. The supervision controls would also apply in this instance. The railway and pontoon berths are designed to be simply and quickly relocated in response to the naturally rapidly changing channel conditions. Both Bangladesh Railways (BR) and BIWTA have considerable experience in this and undertake such action on a routine basis. Provided that good liaison is maintained between the contractor, through the Engineer, BIWTA and BR, any temporary inpact ansing from the construction works can be kept to a minimal level. As a further safeguard, provision is being made in the civil works contract for the Contractor to carry out remedial dredging should the need arise. Provision has been made in the design of revetments for steps and moorings suitable for bathing and country boats. Improvement of the ferry landing at Sirajganj is also included. Dredging and Hydraulic Fill 8. Backsground. There is a need for both dredging and hydraulic fill operations to be carried out at both sites of the project works. The concerns about these operations are their possible impacts on navigation and fisheries, particularly in the dry season, as during the monsoon such operations are reduced, and the natural sediment transport and flows in the Brahmaputra river are considerably increased. Dredging operations will, in general, be localized either for contractor's access or for construction of the underwater portion of the revetments. At Sariakandi/Mathurapara there will be small excess of dredged material that will have to be safely disposed of, but at Sirajganj the requirements for hydraulic fill will exceed the amount of material available from dredging during construction of the revetment. In all cases the majority of the material to be displaced will be the predominantly fine sand of the mobile river bed. Spillage of this sediment fraction during dredging operations will not travel far. A mathematical simulation of dredging operations has demonstrated that such a material will create a narrow ellipsoidal plume with a maximum spread of about 1,500m at a 1mg/l concentration. This would keep the sediments within the localities of the project sites, and impact would be confined to these local areas. 9. Impacts. The nature of impacts on fisheries in the area are difficult to quantify. The baseline productivity for artisanal fisheries has already been considerably damaged and the works will have no significant permanent further impact. There will be some temporary disruption of local artisanal fishing, especially around Sariakandi/Mathurapara. This disruption may be as much due to migration of fish away from an area of considerably activity, as by sediment plumes that may be released during dredging. The scale of this disruption will depend on the season, and the degree of control over the shore and channel dredging, and the hydraulic fill operations. From the scale of the sediment plume it is clear that the impact will only by localized and the larger part of the width of the river will be unaffected. The direct impact in terms of disturbance and. turbidity will be confined to a zone extending 500m from the river bank. The remaining width of the channel will not be significantly affected and would not disturb fish migration. Since the material that is being dredged from the river bed is confined to the zone within the natural scour depth, i.e., the material that is regularly being reworked by the river through the erosion and deposition of chars, ANNEX 5 Page 4 of 7 there will in this case by no risk of disturbing accumulations of toxic or otherwise undesirable materials (there are no known concentrations of such materials in the river bed) or along the Brahmaputra right bank). 10. Mitigation. The potential problems arising from the spillage of sediments will be controlled in two ways: (a) ensuring that the area affected by the sediment plume is relatively small; and (b) the control of the deposition of discharged dredged material by the use of temporary bunds, sediment basins and other measures. Provision for implementing both these have been specifically built in to the civil works contract specification and they will be enforced by the Engineer through the powers vested in him by the standard ICB type conditions of contract (Table 1, Table 2). The disruption to artisanal fin-fish fisheries during the six month construction period, especially in the Sariakandi/Mathurapara area cannot be wholly avoided. However, this disruption is only temporary and can be partially mitigated by designing the work program to move from north to south, thus allowing completed areas in the north to be used for fishing as works move southward with the river flow. There should be little disruption to the fish-spawn fishery, since dredging works by their nature will cease with the onset of the monsoon (between May-June). Where local fishermen identify suitable fish-spawn catch areas (which may vary from year to year), care would be taken to avoid construction activity in these areas for the short catching season, and to carry out necessary dredging from areas downstream where possible. The main areas of concern for this fishery may be in the Sirajganj area (though this is reported to be a collection center rather than a fishery). Suitable provisions are incorporated in the civil works contract. In all cases close liaison with the local fishermen, and the Department of Fisheries (particularly the local district office in Sirajganj) will considerably reduce impacts. Water, Sanitation and Public Health 11. The works will not, in any foreseeable manner, alter the present situation with regard to water supply or sanitation to the main dwellings in the project areas. There will be a need to consider some new provision for these services in the case of the relocation of squatter families in Sirajganj, but for the rest of the project sites the works proposed should not interfere with existing services. The contractor's facilities at the sites will create a large temporary concentration of people for whom adequate facilities must be provided. Public health is generally a matter of hygiene and disease transmission, mainly by water or vectors. For this reason, the Engineer is given the contractual power to ensure adequate spraying or drainage to reduce the vector problem. In this regard, three main provisions are incorporated in the Specifications and Conditions for the civil works contract (Table 1, Table 2). The contractor will be responsible for: (a) provision of adequate dramage of inundation water in the area enclosed by the extension of the Sirajganj embanlanent, particularly in any areas for temporary re-location of squatter families. Such drainage will also ensure that sanitation wastes are not brought up through flooding, and so reduce the risk of water-borne infection in this area; (b) spraying of the borrow pits created during the hard point/cross bar construction (particularly where these are near to temporary work camps, housing). At the end of the project these borrow pits are expected to be used for crop/fish production; ANNEX 5 Page 5 of 7 (c) provision and maintenance of satisfactory water supply and sanitation facilities for the contractor's work force and the Engineer's personnel; and (d) making good any damage caused to existing facilities during the construction of the works or any associated activities. C. Environmental Monitorin- and Action Plan Liaison Arrangements 12. It is important that the construction of the works not only proceed in an environmentally and socially sensitive manner, but also that the benefits of the works are maximized while any negative impacts are minimized. This requires a number of continuous actions forming part of an environmental monitoring and action plan that should begin in the pre-construction phase, and be maintained well after completion of the project. It is important, therefore, to provide a simple, yet effective, system of monitoring which can be readily transferred between agencies when the situation demands. This approach demands, at the earliest moment, an effective open and harrnonious system of liaison between a number of different bodies and groups. Such a program must operate within the legal, cultural and institutional frameworks that exist in Bangladesh. The plan has to be flexible and capable of initiating and executing changes by local institutions and groups, if necessary, in the future. 13. For the full project benefits to be realized, a system of liaison between institutions and groups should be set up and maintained. Such liaison will allow all interested parties to become aware of the progress of the project; allow project decisions to respond to local interests and concerns as they may occur; provide greater public confidence in the purpose of the project; and ensure the efficient and economic execution of the works. BWDB will bear the responsibility for developing the system of liaison in conjunction with the Deputy Commissioners and local authorities, particularly within the localities of the project sites. The Engineer will have an important part to play in this aspect, and the actual functioning of the system will reflect his judgements on frequency, type and inputs into the liaison process. At the national level, BWDB will continue to maintain an ongoing exchange of information with the national bodies regulating sectors affected by the project. An initial step in the development of a system of liaison is ensuring a close inter-department systern of monitoring and reporting which includes the environmental and social aspects of the project. Table I lists the institutions and groups presently identified as being relevant to these necessary inter-actions. Monitoring 14. There are no authorities that at present have the institutional capabilities or resources, at a local level, to monitor environmental change, or adequately provide a record of environmental and social change at this time. Accordingly, a method must be found whereby some records can be presented at regular intervals to allow independent scrutiny and evaluation of any ongoing negative impacts. BWDB would take on the responsibility for assessing these imnpacts during the course of the project for reporting on these aspects of the work. After completion of the project the BWDB may continue the process of monitoring, or may mutually agree to pass this task over to a national or local body which may, by then, be able to take on this role. Following completion of the works, responsibility for monitoring will be vested in the specialist BWDB O&M Unit that would be established during the construction phase. The personnel for this Unit would have been provided with training under the project. This Unit should be given the responsibility of ensuring the recording of the observed social and environmental changes, and reporting at ANNEX 5 Page 6 of 7 six-monthly intervals (November and May) on these changes. In this regard, the information supplied by the system of liaison that would set up in the local communities will be very important. 15. Specifically, the record should contain monthly observations on the following: (a) Any squatter or other persons moved from the area to allow works to proceed. This information should record number of families affected, number of persons moved, placed to where they were relocated (if any), date of movement/relocation, any compensation paid or compensation works undertaken. (b) Any reported loss of income or disruption of normal work practices (including artisanal fishing), houses or shops temporarily closed or vacated as a result of works. This information should record number of families affected, number and types of businesses affected, number of persons affected in each family/business, places to where they were relocated (if any), date of movement/relocation, any compensation paid or compensating works undertaken. (c) Any specific aspect of works that caused prolonged disruption to local services (e.g., street closures, traffic delays, loss of power/communication services, closure of ferry ghats). (d) Any change in the nature of the river at any point during construction. Specifically, this should be done by observation by BWDB and discussion with appropriate authorities (e.g., BIWTA, DOF) and local communities, and should report on new channels, chars, sandbanks or erosion that is occurring, with either sketch maps or subjective quantification of the changes noted. (e) Any concerns, events or actions that have been identified by the liaison and consultation process, and the results of any meetings, surveys or agreements made through these processes. These half-yearly records and report should be evaluated both by BWDB and the other regulatory authorities, and should include the earlier comments of the local pourashava or thanas. It is recommended that BWDB coordinate with the Department of the Environment (DOE), Ministry of Environment and Forests (as the identified authority responsible for national environmental monitoring and regulation) to assist in this evaluation process. Recommendations made as a result of these evaluations should be communicated to the appropriate authonty, and some follow-up action taken to assess the results of action taken on these recommendations. Mitigation Control During Construction 16. Certain mitigation measures will be applied as a result of the consultation and liaison processes. Many will be effected by the standard construction impact and nuisance mitigation measures available under ICB contracts. The Engineer will be responsible for monitoring and enforcing these measures. In the event that a contractor does not comply with or carry out the measures to the Engineer's satisfactory, the Engineer may contract a third party to repair the damage and reduce the contractor's payment accordingly. The following summarizes the main areas for mitigation that are part of the monitoring and action plan for the project. Details of the Action Plan and the contact clauses for its enforcement are given in Table I and Table 2 respectively. 17. Public Land Acquisition. Consultation processes would be used to determine the future alignment of the BRE retirement at Sariakandi, assess the disruptions involved and compensation necessary. The process to be commenced as early as practicable in order to allow time for full consultation ANNEX S Page 7 of 7 and feedback into the design procedure. Alignments will be set, as far as possible, to avoid dwellings and major human disruption. 18. Contractor's Land Leasing and Site Development. ICB contract procedures would be followed to ensure minimal disruption and nuisance in contractor's site development, including a requirement for adequate consultation of site selection. 19. Collection and Stockpiling of Materials. The controls applying to the manufacture of bricks (para. 4) will be strictly enforced. The main civil works contractor will be required to ensure adequate safety and security measures, and to minimize nuisance under the terms of the ICB contract. 20. Transvort of Materials. The contractor will be responsible under the terms of his contract for ensuring that his use of road and water transport causes the minimum degree of congestion and nuisance and that all necessary action is taken to ensure that the interests of other users are adequately protected. In addition, prior consultation with the local authorities and with residents and businesses along alternative routes will be undertaken to facilitate this process. The Importance attached to the contractor's compliance with the contract conditions should be stressed at the Pre-Bid Conference held during the tender period that all tenderers will be obliged to attend. 21. Precasting of Cement Concrete Blocks. The conditions and specification forming part of the ICB contract will be enforced through the powers vested in the Engineer to ensure that this activity is undertaken in a safe manner, and that all nuisance and pollution is kept to a minimum. 22. Dredging and Hydraulic Fill Works. The conditions and specification forming part of the ICB contract will be enforced through the powers vested in the Engineer to ensure that this activity is undertaken in a safe manner and such that the interference with fisheries and navigation is kept to a minimum. Close liaison will be maintained with the BIWTA and the MOF so that the timing and scope of operations may, as far as practicable, be arranged to minimize impact, given due consideration to the strict limitations set by the seasonal river conditions during the period of the year available for construction. 23. Cross-Bar and BRE Retirement Construction. The contractor will be required to comply strictly with the conditions and specifications for cross-bars incorporated in the ICB civil works contract. The contractor will be obliged to maintain the form and size of the borrow pits as laid down in the ICB contract, to ensure that they present no health hazard during the construction phase and to finish off the pits such that they are left in a condition that is appropriate for productive use in the future. Similar conditions would be required of local contractors undertaking the BRE retirement at Sariakandi. 24. Cleaning and Reinstatement of Site. The contractor will clear all debris from the site to ensure that productive land is not lost through uncleared materials, machinery or works. Useful improvements to the site (water supply, drainage, access points, roads) should be handed over in good condition where provision is made for this in the contract. As with all activities, the contractor will be required to furnish the Engineer with a detailed Method Statement indicating what materials, machinery and other debris will be cleared and where and how these will be disposed of; this being to ensure that the problem of disposal is not merely exported to another area. The contractor will also be required to indicate how he will restore such works as sediment ponds, spoil tips, etc. Site cleaning will be carefully monitored in accordance with the ICB contract conditions and financial provision enforced in order to ensure appropriate reinstatement of the site environment. As a last resort, in the event of contractor default, the Engineer is entitled to arrange for the work to be carried out by others and the cost deducts from the contractor's final payment. ANNEX S Table 1 Page 1 of 2 BANGLADESH RIVER BANK PROTECTION PROJECT Action Plan for Monitoring and Mitigating Impacts' 1. Land Acquisition for Permanent Works (Insig, Lo, Irr, LT) (a) Bank Protection * Consultation with affected persons and thana chairmen at least 18 months prior to commencement of construction. * Fixing of cross-bar alignments to minimize fragmentation of holdings, and avoid interference with homesteads, etc. * Timely completion of land acquisition procedures. * Establish formal liaison and regular meetings between thana chairmen, BWDB Executive Engineer and contractor, chaired by the Engineer's Representative. * Construction program to be sensitive to cropping program. (b) BRE Alinnment * Consultation with affected persons and thana chairmen at least 18 months prior to commencement of construction. * Fixing of alignments to minimize fragmentation of holdings and avoid interference with homesteads, etc. * Timely completion of land acquisition procedures. * Establish formal liaison and regular meetings between thana chairmen, BRE retirement planners and local contractors, chaired by Executive Engineer (BWDB). a Construction program to be sensitive to cropping program. 2. Temporary Resettlement of Squatters (Sirajganj) (Sig, LT, Lo) * Provision made in civil works contract Bills of Quantities and Specification for temporary resettlement. * Consultation with affected persons and town authorities at least one year prior to commencement of construction. * Final identification of persons affected prior to award of civil works contract. * Establish formal liaison and regular meetings between town authorities, squatters' representative, BWDB Executive Engineer and contractor, chaired by the Engineer's Representative. * Maintain formal liaison with the District Commissioner. * Provisions for squatter resettlement according to the Resettlement Plan. 3. Establishment of Contractor's Facilities (Insig, Lo, T. Rev) * Contractor made solely responsible for legal and financial arrangements for temporary acquisition of land. Nature of impacts is described by symbols in parentheses next to impact headings. Impact Ke: Sig - Significant; Insig - Insignificant; LT - Long Term; ST - Short Term; LO - Localized; Rev - Reversible; Irr - Irreversible. ANNEX5 Table 1 Page 2 of 2 * Establish formal liaison and regular meetings between town/thana authorities, BWDB Executive Engineer and contractor, chaired by the Engineer's Representative. * Provisions written into the ICB Contract Conditions and Specifications (Table 2) to cover the proper establishment of facilities, including adequate attention to sanitation, disease vectors, noise and dust nuisance. * Contractor to furnish detailed proposals and drawings for approval of the Engineer prior to commencement of any work. * Enforcement of all contract provisions by the Engineer's Representative. 4. Procurement of Clay BicJks (Sig, Lo, ST, Irr) * Provisions written into the ICB Contract Conditions and Specification (Table 2) to limit the procurement of bricks for the works to kilns using coal for fuel. * Contractor to furnish list of kilns (owner and location) for prior approval of the Engineer's Representative prior to procurement. * Spot checks to be made to ensure compliance. * Strict rejection of non-omplying material. 5. Precasting Cement Concrete Blocks (nsig, Lo, ST, Rev) * Provisions written into the ICB Contract Conditions and Specification (Table 2) to cover the proper establishment of facilities and abatement of noise and dust nuisance. * Contractor to furnish detailed Method Statement for approval of the Engineer prior to commencement of any work. * Compliance with provisions and method statement to be monitored and enforced by the Engineer's Representative. * Provisions written into the ICB Contract Conditions and Specification (Table 2) making the contractor responsible for ensuring that his activities do not unreasonably interfere with navigation, fisheries and road users. ANNEX 5 Table 2 Page 1 of 2 BANGLADESH RIVER BANK PROTECTION PROXECT List of Clauses Pertainin! to Mitifation of Impacts 1. General Conditions of Contract Clause No. Description 8.2 Site Operations and Methods of Construction 13.1 Work to be in Accordance with Contract 19.1 Safety, Security and Protection of the Environment 26.1 Compliance with Statutes, Regulations 29.1 Interference with Traffic and Adjoining Properties 30.1 Avoidance of Damage to Roads 30.2 Transport of Contractor's equipment or Temporary Works 30.3 Transport of Materials or Plant 30.4 Waterborne Traffic 32.1 Contractor to Keep Site Clear 33.1 Clearance of Site on Completion 45.1 Restriction on Working Hours 2. Conditions of Particular Application Clause No. Description 34 Labor 34.11 Health and Safety 34.12 Measures Against Insect and Pest Nuisance 34.13 Epidemics 45.1 Restriction on Working Hours 3. Specification Clause No. Description Part 1 Description of Works 102 Scope of Contract (includes provision for squatter resettlement in Contract No. 2, Sirajganj) 104 Working Areas (Contractor responsible for temporary acquisition of additional land) Part 2 Preliminary and General 214 Sanitary Conveniences ANNEX 5 Table 2 Page 2 of 2 216 Drains, Streams, Watercourses, etc. 220 Access (restriction on construction traffic, etc.) 223 Safety of Adjacent Structures or Works 224 Interference with Existing Works 225 Abatement of Nuisance 231 Contractor's Accommodation (Contractor to furnish details for Engineer's approval) 241 Temporary Works (Contractor to furnish details for Engineer's approval) 244 Notice to Mariners 245 Navigation 248 Liaison with Public Authorities Part 3 Earthworks 318 Borrow Pits Part 4 Dredging and Reclamation 403 Borrow Area (Contract No. 2-other dredging areas shown on the drawings) 408 Discharge into the River 409 Dredging Method Statement 412 Compliance with Regulations 417 Filling in Reclamation Area (including submission of method statement) Part 5 Concrete 504 Aggregates - General 504(5) - source to be approved by the Engineer 505 Coarse Aggregate 505(5) - requirement to use only coal-fired kilns for bricks Part 6 Revetment Works 617 Rock Armor (alternative armoring to cc blocks) 617(2)&(S) - quarry rock to be supplied only from sources approved by Engineer 617(8) Brick Filter Layer (bricks to conform to Sub-Clause 505(5)\ 619 Revetment Construction Method Statement Part 7 Roads (Contract No. 2 only) 703 Aggregate Sources for Bitumen Macadam (subject to the Engineer's approval) Part 8 Piling (Contract No. 2 only) 801 Piling Plant and Methods 801(1) - Contractor to submit details for the Engineer's approval 806 Disturbance and Noise ANNEX 6 Page 1 of 5 BANGLADESH RIVER BANK PROTECTION PROJECT PROJECT COSTS Estimated Schedule of Disbursement Accumulated IDA Fiscal Year Semester Disbursements Disbursements 1996 I - _ II 25.2 25.2 1997 1 25.2 50.4 II 16.7 67.1 1998 I 16.8 84.0 II 16.4 100.3 1999 I 16.4 116.8 II 2.2 118.9 2000 I 2.2 121.2 II 0.4 121.5 2001 1 0.4 121.9 II - RANGLAIU RIVIR BANK PROTBCTIOk PROJECT Project Coot _ m.ry (Taka '000 fUSS 'o000 I I Total 1 1 Total Foreign Base Foreign Base Local Foreign Total Exchange ojstj Ta l Foreign Totl Exchbance Costs A. River Bank Protection Sariakandi 378,287.7 257,235.3 635,523.0 40 12 9,433.6 6,414.8 15,848.5 40 12 Mathurapara 612,381.0 361,879.0 974,260.0 37 18 15,271.3 9,024.4 24,295.8 37 18 Kalitola 258,567.4 143,664.6 402,232.0 36 7 6,448.1 3,582.7 10,030.7 36 7 Sirajganj 1,622,784 666,000.4 2,288,785 29 42 40,468.4 16,608.5 57,076.9 29 42 BRE 57,365.4 7,310.6 64,676.0 11 1 1,430.6 182.3 1,612.9 11 1 BWB-Operational Support 344.441.3 37S.932.3 720.373.F 52 13 8.95896 9.374.9 17.964.4A 2 13 Subtotal River Bank Protection 3,273,827 1,812.022 5,085,849 36 94 81,641.6 45,187.6 126,829.2 36 94 B. National Water Planning 97,.2854 21.215_3 311.s10.7 69 6 2.,426.1 5.342.8 7.768.8 69 6 To'tal BASLINR COSTS 3,371,112 2,026,268 5,397,380 38 100 84,067.6 50,530.4 134,598.0 38 100 Physical Contingencies 412,571.9 238,794.8 651,366.6 37 12 10,288.6 5,955.0 16,243.6 37 12 Price Contingencies 238.363.5 152.070.4 390.43.i9 39 7 L,052.-S 2-lll.5 . 164.0 41 4 Total PROJECT COSTS 4,022,048 2,417,133 6,439,180 38 119 97,408.7 58,596.8 156,005.6 38 116 Sat Oct 28 10:57:23 1995 1-1 Project Cost Su _ ary BANG LADES H RIVER BANK PROTECTION PROJECT Project Cost Suary _ ITk'001_ Total - U.S6f ~ ' 02' - i ToIio Foreign Base Foreiqn Base Local_ Fsr_eiq_n Total Exchange Coss Local Foreign Total Exchiona Cost-, 1. Investment Costs A. River Bank Protection 1. Civil works Major Civil Works 2,697,266 1,447,191 4,144,457 35 77 67,263.5 36,089.5 103,353.0 35 77 Minor Civil Works 48,901.4 7,310.6 56,212.0 13 1 1,219.5 182.3 1,401.8 13 1 Land Acquisition 32,405.0 - 32,405.0 - 1 808.1 - 808.1 - 1 Resettlement 28,319.6 - 28,319.6 - 1 706.2 - 706.2 - 1 BWDB Project Management 142.9S65 - 12,.5 - 3 3.565.0 - 3565.0 3 Subtotal Civil works 2,949,849 1,454,501 4,404,350 33 82 73,562.3 36,271.9 109,834.2 33 82 2. Technical Assistance a. Project Preparation and Implementation Support International Specialists - 180,049.0 180,049.0 100 3 - 4,490.0 4,490.0 100 3 Local Specialists 59,267.8 - 59,267.8 - 1 1,478.0 - 1,478.0 - 1 Local Staff 10 27- 1,9L27L 3 ...272.2.5~ ....,272,l ______ - Subtotal Project Preparation and Implementation Support 70,195.1 180,049.0 250,244.1 72 5 1,750.5 4,490.0 6,240.5 72 5 c. Institutional Development/Capacity Building International Specialists - 9,624.0 9,624.0 100 - - 240.0 240.0 100 Local Specialists - 2.,406. 2,406 .0 100 - - 60.0 60.0 100 - Subtotal Institutional Development/Capacity Building - 12,030.0 12.030.0 100 - 300.0 300.0 100 - d. Operating Costs 11,009.5 1,942.8 12,952.3 15 - 274.6 48.5 323.0 1S - e. Equipment 23,242.0 16,601.4 39,843.4 42 1 579.6 414.0 993.6 42 1 f. Training - RACs - 2,.005.0 20050 100 - - 50.0 50.0 100 - Subtotal Technical Asistance 104,446.5 212,628.2 317,074.7 67 6 2,604.7 5,302.5 7,907.1 67 6 3. Works Maintenance Survey and OSM Equipment 125,536.6 89,669.0 215,205.6 42 4 3,130.6 2,236.1 5,366.7 42 4 0tM Recurrent Cost 38,719.3 43,784.5 82,503.8 53 2 965.6 1,091.9 2,057.5 53 2 BWDB Management 43,.864.3 3 ,2e8.0 47.52.S2 . 7 1 1093.9 82.0 1.17 7 1 Subtotal Works Maintenance 208,120.1 136,741.5 344,861.6 40 6 5,190.0 3,410.0 8,600.0 40 6 4. Vehicles 11,.411.4 8,.151.0 19.,5624 42 284.6 __2031 487.8 42 Subtotal River Dank Protection 3,273,827 1,812,022 5,085,849 36 94 81,641.6 45,187.6 126,829.2 36 94 S. National Mater Planning 1. MARPO Management and Support Personnel 6,600.0 - 6,600.0 - - 164.6 - 164.6 2. Technical kseistaneo b. Policy Support International Specialists - 9,624 .0 9,624.0 100 - - 240.0 240.0 100 Local Specialists 1.92.8A - l.9Z.8 - - 48.0 - 48.0 Subtotal Policy Support 1,924.8 9.624.0 11,548.8 83 - 48.0 240.0 288.0 83 - c. Institutional Development/Capecity Building international Specialists - 171,628.0 171,628.0 100 3 - 4,280.0 4,280.0 100 3 Local Specialists 38,.439. - 38.439.9 I 9. 958.6 I- Subtotal Institutional Development/Capacity building 38.,439.9 171628.0 210.067.9 82 4 9586 4,280.0 5.,238.6 82 4 Subtotal Technical Aasistance 40,364.7 181,252.0 221,616.7 82 4 1,006.6 4,520.0 5,526.6 82 4 3. Equipment 10,134.1 6,688.7 16,822.8 40 - 252.7 166.8 419.5 40 4. Vehicles 22,643.3 16,173.8 38,817.1 42 1 564.7 403.3 968.0 42 1 S. Training Poreign Training - 7,619.0 7,619.0 100 - - 190.0 190.0 100 - Local Training . 9.5. - 595*5 - - - ,14 .9 14.9.. Subtotal Training 595.5 7,619.0 8,214.5 93 - 14.9 190.0 204.9 93 6. Operating Costs 16,j7.9 2,.511.9 19.459.7 13 4- A22.6 62.6 48.3 13 - Subtotal National M4ater Planning 97,2854 2,2 311.,5307 69 6 2.. . 5,.342.8 7.768.8 69 6 Total BASELINE COSTS 3,371,112 2,026,268 5,397,380 38 100 84,067.6 50,530.4 134,598.0 38 100 Physical Contingencies 412,571.9 238,794.8 651,366.6 37 12 10,288.6 5,955.0 16,243.6 37 12 Price Contingencies 238.363.5 I5ilQ20174 3910A1_ 39 7 3.052.5 . 2,111.5 5.164.0 41 4 Total PROJECT COSTS 4,022,048 2,417,133 6,439,180 38 119 97,408.7 58,596.8 156,005.6 38 116 Sat Oct 28 10:51:08 1995 2-1 Project Cost Sunrnary ii coA BANGLADLSN RrVER MAMK PRarSMION PROJECr Rxpmditure Acenet by Tears (USs '000) Totals Tncluding CQntingenries 19gfi 1997 1998 19%9 2Q Tot-I 1. Investment Costs A. River bank Protection 1. Civil works Major Civil Works 56,597.7 32,747.4 30,099.7 700.8 90.2 120,235.9 Minor Civil Works - - 670.2 986.5 - 1,656.8 Land Acquisition 404.0 466.6 104.1 106.8 - 1,081.6 Resettlement 145.6 569.8 109.7 77.2 - 902.3 BWDB Project Management _ 699.4 8 876.7 753.7 771.5 3.956.7 Subtotal Civil Works 57,846.8 34,639.2 31,860.5 2,625.1 861.1 127,833.3 2. Technical Asaistance a. Project Preparation and l-l_eentatioa Support International Specialists 541.5 1,358.2 2,184.3 1,066.5 - 5,150.6 Local Specialists 302.5 650.6 622.9 112.0 - 1,688.0 Local Staff -.i.JU- AU.3.......lLI. L - 32. Subtotal Project Preparation end Ipl _tation support 897.2 2,117.8 2,918.8 1,217.3 - 312,11. C. Inatitutional Developmaet/Capacity building International Specialists 267.4 - - - - 267.4 Local Specialists 66fi.9.9..h - - 9- - Subtotal institutional Developmant/Capacity Building 334.3 - - - 334.3 d. operating Costs 52.9 108.5 137.8 55.9 - 355.1 e. Equipment 1,107.2 - - - - 1,107.2 f. Training - RACs 55.7 - - - .7 Subtotal Technical Assistance 2,447.2 2,226.4 3,056.6 1,273.2 - 9,003.3 3. Works Maintenance Survey and O&M Equipment - 3,235.1 2,963.9 - 6,198.9 O&M Recurrent Cost - - 732.4 859.3 881.1 2,472.8 BEDB Management 110.4 197.9 287.0 0 376. 385;8 1.358.0 Subtotal Worka Maint.neaca 110.4 3,433.0 3,983.2 1,236.2 1,267.0 10,029.8 4. vehicles .....5L. ------ - ~: ------ = --- ----_ S4 Subtotal River Bank Protection 60,948.1 40,298.5 38,900.3 5,134.4 2,128.7 147,410.0 S. national Water Planning 1. *wAUPO Management and Support Personnel 3.2 43.8 44.8 46.0 47.1 184.9 2. Technical Assistance b. Policy Support International Specialists 63.6 131.0 67.2 - - 262.0 Local Specialists 12-7 26.0 133 -- - - -20 Subtotal Policy Support 76.5 157.0 80.5 - - 314.0 c. Institutional Development/Capacity Building International Specialists 595.6 1,615.1 1,701.9 827.1 - 4,739.8 Local Specialists 112.9 459.9 370. L 10.I6A.6 - 1-049.9 Subtotal Institutional Development/Capacity Building 708.S 2.075.0 2.072,5 933.7 S7- 5.99J Subtotal Technical Assistance 785.0 2,232.0 2,153.0 933.7 - 6,103.7 3. Equipment 467.3 - - - - 467.3 4. Vehicles 1,078.6 - - - 1,078.6 5. Training Foreign Training 30.3 103.7 74.5 - - 208.4 Local Training S.2 107 - - - 16.0 Subtotal Training 35.5 114.4 74.5 - - 224.4 6. Operating Costs 63.4 152.8 179.8 _ 116.1 24-5 S36-6 Subtotal National Water Planning 2.,43.1 2.543.0 2.452.1 1.095.a 71.6 a..S95..5 Total PROJECT COSTS 63,381.1 42,841.5 41,352.4 6,230.2 2,200.3 156,005.6 Sat Oct 28 11:12:45 199S 1-1 Expenditure Accounts by Years BANGLADESH RIVER BANK PROTECTION PROJECT Project Components by Year (US$ '000) Totals Including Contingencies 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Total A. River Bank Protection Sariakandi 8,613.4 6,452.9 4,198.6 - - 19,264.9 Mathurapara 12,275.1 8,049.1 8,704.7 612.8 - 29,641.7 Kalitola 8,303.3 2,455.1 554.1 - - 11,312.5 Sirajganj 28,090.6 17,531.3 17,433.3 753.7 771.5 64,580.5 BRE - - 815.2 1,135.3 - 1,950.6 BWB-Operational Support 3.665.7 5.8l0.1 7.194.4 2.632.6 1.357.2 20.660.0 Subtotal River Bank Protection 60,948.1 40,298.5 38,900.3 5,134.4 2,128.7 147,410.0 B. National Water Planning 2.433.3.1 2.S430. 2.12.1 1.05.8 71.6 8.55.95 Total PROJBCT COSTS 63,381.1 42,841.5 41,352.4 6,230.2 2,200.3 156,005.6 Sat Oct 28 11:00:33 1995 4-1 Project Components by Year I,S Annex 7 Page 1 of 16 BANGLADESH RIVER BANK PROTECFION PROJECI PROJECT MONITORING INDICATORS 1. Damages Avoided if the Proiect Achieves its Obiectives. The project will prevent erosion losses and flood damage, and Tables 1 and 2 summarize some of the key monitorable (and easy to measure) indicators which were used to calculate project benefits (see Annex 8). If the project is wholly unsuccessful in controlling erosion, then the land and property lost over the 1995 baseline condition would be that shown in Tables I and 2. If the project is delayed, it is expected that some of the losses indicated in these tables would occur, and the project benefits would be reduced. If net losses are less than or equal to those shown in the tables, then the project will have achieved its full potential. Table I Projected Lmxes of Land without the Pro:ect SriskandUMathurpaan Sirjgnij Cumuatve lose Annua loas Cumulative loses Annual lose hectares bectaresyer hectares hectars/year Lend CAtgory Years 1-S Year 6-30 Yea 1-5 Years 6,30 Years I-S Yea 6-30 Yeers 1-5 Years 6-30 PraoCtAdpoiculaur 470 3300 94 132 355 3275 71 131 Unproectedauiculwumi land 535 2200 107 88 0 0 0 0 Mart Ituai 15 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 Urban lad 0 0 0 0 450 300 90 12 Peiutban land 0 0 0 0 50 700 10 2S Upezila HQ lnd S0 0 16 0 0 0 0 0 L ndsrodsdw/oprojec 1100 5500 220 220 S55 4275 171 171 Unavoidable losses with projet 290 1450 5S 5S 365 1825 73 73 Netlandareapreaevedbytheprojie S10 4050 162 162 490 2450 98 9S Annex 7 Page 2 of 16 Table 2 BANGLADESH RIVER BANK PROTECTION PROJECT Table 2 Without Project Infrastructure and Property Losses Ycars 1-S Unit Mathurapara Sariakandi Sirajganj Property and Infra. Category Property Losses/Displacement Public Buildings Pucca No. 20 0 75 Semi-Pucca No. 15 S 33 Commercial and Industrial Pucca No. 0 0 S0 Semi-Pucca No. 0 0 25 Private Houses and Shops Pucca No. 6 0 250 Semi-Pucca No. 1.620 700 6,750 Katcha No. 1,620 700 3,300 Infrastructure Losses/ Displacement Roads Pucca km. 6 0 25 Katcha km 15 10 15 Bridges/Culverts No. 10 4 25 Railways Embankments km. 0 0 1 Bridges/Culverts No. 0 0 2 Ferry landings No. 0 0 2 Power and Telephone Lines Km. 10 2 50 Project Objective Input/Activity Output Indicator Development Impact Indicators * Review of the Draft National Water Plan * Dralt NWP presented to NWC * An acceptable National Water by GOB and IDA. and views of NWC recorded and Plan. acted upon; sirnilarly for IDA comments. * Public review (see below). * Public consultation. * Involvement of NGOs in the * Socially acceptable plan. consultation process. * Local and regional consultation at planning and design stage. * View of stakeholders on record, including divergent views. * Mitigation measures designed and built in the implementation plans. * Feedback to PAPs and stakeholders on record. * Enviromnental management planning * Baseline surveys implemented. Enviromnentally sustainable plan. (EMP). * Control areas selected. * Monitoring indicators selected. * Mitigation measures recorded and taken into account in planning process. 8. BWDB Regional Accounting Centers * MIS and computers installed. * 60 computers and software sets operational and effective. and 40 fax machines procured. * Training in double entry book-keeping; * BWDB recruits trainers; training * Operational RACs. computeized accounting. of trainers implemented; training plans designed and implemented 9. Improve BWDB's MIS and project * TA through RBPP implementation * 40 computer and software sets and Faster communication to field, more supervision capability. consultants. 40 fax machines procured. frequent site visits, up-to-date project * Purchase of management software * MIS systems set up at HQ and monitoring database available. packages. field offices. * Training in MIS. * Training plans designed and * Provision of cars and boats to improve implemented. field supervision. * 5 vehicles and 4 speed-boats procured. 4 Table 3 Project Objectives,Inputs and Outputs, and Development Impact Indicators Project Objective Input/Activity Output Indicator Development Impact Indicators 1. Ensure Sound Contract Management * GOB appoints Project Director and * GOB Confirmation of Project Coordinator. appointment and staff posted. * GOB fully staffs Project Management and * Established PMRU office at Resettlement Unit (PMRlU). Bogra. * Executive Engineers' Offices established at Sariakandi and Sirajganj. * GOB establishes Dispute Review Board * Notification of names of the 4 * Effective and timely settlement of (DRB) for each District. members of DRB. disputes. * GOB seconds engineering staff to * Secondment completed by 6/30/96 * GOB staff trained in the Consultants' supervision team. * - 6 senior engineers management of ICB contracts. * - 10 mid-level/junior engineers * GOB separates financial approval * Executive Engineers' approval of * Clear and transparent records of authority of Executive Engineer from Monthly Measurement. separate approval of measurement disbursement by Regional Accounting * Monthly payment of contractors and subsequent payment or Centers (RCA). by RCA or approval of approval of processing to IDA by recommendation transmitted to RCA. BWDB Dhaka for IDA * Timely payment of contractors' reimbursement. monthly billings. * Consultants' fielded staff are suitably * GOB approval of staff. experienced and qualified. * Consultants implement Quality * Contractors' QA laboratories and Assurance (QA) program. standards available for inspection. * Accurate works measurement. * Measurement technicians, including divers, understand job requirements. * Critical Path management tools adopted. * Critical path charts or computer displays available on site * NCB procurement and Local Shopping. * Consultant/BWDB follows recommended advertising, number of bids, contract approvals. • Routine reporting to BWDB and IDA. * Reports submitted as required by Annex 9. 0 4s Project Objective Input/Activity Output Indicator Development Impact Indicators * Drawings for completed "as-built" works. * Regularly updated as works progress; agree with monthly measurement statements. * Envirounent Management Plan (EMP) * Records of monitoring program * Envirownental impacts during implemented. and mitigation measures construction do not exceed those implenented. expected. * GOB staff demonstrate knowledge of EMP. 2. Ensure O&M unit is established and * GOB selects and appoints international * IDA no objection. trained. consultants (Annex 4 para 26). * GOB sets up O&M unit at Sirajganj. * O&M unit fully staffed (see Annex 4, Figure 1). * Implementation Consultants prepare * GOB requests IDA's no-objection procurement documents for ICB of O&M to procurement methods and equipment (Annex 4, Table I). documentation. * ICB notices posted. * Bids received. * Consultants evaluate bids and prepare * GOB requests IDA's no-objection recommendation for GOB. to their recommended supply contractors and costs. * IDA no objection. * Delivery to Sirajganj of O&M equipment listed in Table 1, of Annex 4. * Regular reporting of O&M status. * Monthly reports. * Regular maintenance of O&M * Operational status of O&M * Trained staff not posted away equipment. equipment. from O&M Unit. 3. Implementation of Policies contained * Public information about the project * Notices at site in Bangla, * Public aware of projects impacts within the Resettlemnent Action Plan displayed at site. Brochures distributed; information on local populace. (RAP). booth/center established at site. * GOB Resettlement Staff Posted to each * Staff posted include: Revenue site. Officer (land acquisition); a Resettlment and Public Relations Officer, an Accountant, an accounts assistant, a surveyor, a chainmnan, typist and a messenger. * All Project Affected People (PAPs) are * NGO partner in resettlement identified. program recruited and fielded. 4 Project Objective Input/Activity Output Indicator Development Impact Indicators * Level of compensation determined. * Joint verification of value of assets and property to be acquired as approved by the DC. * Equitable and timely payment of * Random checks among PAPs. No grievances taken to the District or compensation. * Check with NGO partner. Central Courts. * Check with RAP Grievance Commnittee. * Check BWDB's and DC's records. * 420 households resettled and or compensated. * Effective assistance with re-establishing * Resettlement center and social * GOB rehabilitates PAPs. homestead and income earning capacity. facilities established at Sirajganj. * NGO partners ongoing programs to resettle PAPs and implement skills training. * Monitoring records for each PAP family available for inspection. 4. No PAP is made worse off by the * Monitoring and survey of PAPs. * Establish baseline of socio- project. economic and financial status prior to project implementation. * Survey PAPs after relocation to establish new socio-economic and fuiancial status. * Survey PAPs affected by the project but * Relative status of PAPs * PAPs successfully re-established not relocated. with/without project. in new location or in area affected by the project. 5. Data and Results of the Flood Action * Records and reports transferred to * FAP Library established in Plan (FAP) are institutionalized. WARPO. WARPO. * FAP computerized database established in WARPO. * FAP Environmental Cell established in * FAP environmental staff * WARPO Staff able to apply EIA WARPO. transferred to WARPO. guidelines and screen projects. * GIS under FAP transferred to WARPO. * GIS computers and softwear * WARPO staff can effectively use routines installed in WARPO. GIS for routine work. * FAP report review process adopted by * Records of report review process. * Public access library established. WARPO. .. Project Objective Input/Activity Output Indicator Development Impact Indicators 6. Technical capacity of WARPO * Multi-disciplinary staff appointed to head * Planning reports reflect a multi- * Broad-based water sector enlarged to meet National Water Plan WARPO Directorates (cf para 2.29 SAR). disciplinary input not dominated planining, needs. by engineering. * Institutionally sustainable. * Economists/and training specialists available for consultation. * Peer review of WARPO work plans and * International and local Panel of * Unbiased planning of the highest outputs. Experts formed; records of their technical quality. reviews and responses. * International Consultants to guide in * Training plan for WARPO staff. * Trained water sector planning planning practices standards and * Regular training courses. staff capable of operating without methodology. * Overseas training. expatriate assistance. * Trained staff retained by WARPO. * Procurement of 20 computer sets and * WARPO computer and modeling * Productive computer modeling software; 4 photocopiers; 6 fax machines; capability enhanced; publication and publications center. training in desk-top publishing. and information dissemination facilities established 7. Ensure National Water Planning * Policy guidance from National Water * Policy guidelines for NWP (NWP) is relevant to national needs. Council (NWC). available in WARPO. * Water Policy Advisory Group established. * Team members (5) appointed, 3 * Water and institutional planning internationally. that reflects broader water sector * Regular visits, meetings and reform and development agenda. policy papers produced to guide * All sub-sectors agree that the WARPO. NWP covers their needs * Planning includes all water users - realistically and they are fully check with them. taken into account. * Macro-economic and national * Enabling with/without impacts of budget data used to guide plan NWP implementation to be formulation process. determined. * Without (NWP) scenario is part of NWP. -4 BANGLADESH- RIVERBANK PROTECTION PROJECT -Procurtment Schedule 1! 19951 196 _M 1991 _ 24 ID Nu Ql Q2 I Ql I Q4 Q | Q2I _ Q0 __ I Q4 Ql Q10 Q4 _ Q2 | Q1 1 SIRAJGANJ -. s I 1 - _0 2 Pij.ifabom - A-v_| P- c r-ma- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~. ....... ....... .... . ..... ...... |_. v_.+ ... .... +.... ..... ..... ... _... ....... .... ... ........ ........ .... .... ........ .. . ... .. ..... ........ ........ 6_____i_- Ad-vam* tmana *|--- 1- -7 /-27 - - 7 1_ ....... ........ ...... . ,_1 9,t, +- ,, ---|---- - - ---* - 9 TA IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT ~~~~~~~....... ........ 1 .-. ...-.|.;. 11 .. ...... ... ... _..... . . ....... ... ........ _ . .... .... ........ . 5 SARIAKANDI/MATHURAPARA 131 i/JO 10 Consulbnis - ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~. .| t-'1- -l' .l.l... ....... .. ..... ........ ........ ........ ........ ........ .. . .. .. ... ....... .... ........ ........ ........ ....... ....... ....... .... ....... .... 6 Praaalaficaia - Aivanc Proctmancn 16 Re ' ' ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~....... . ........ . | 1 ' '' ...... ....... ..... ....... ..... .. : '. ........ .. .. ....... . ........ . ......_ .._.. ....... .... ........ . ...... . ........ .. . . ....... ..... .... .... .... 7 Bidding -AMvancc?oct aranern9adeg2 17~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~... ...... ....... ....... ... ........ ..... .. ..... .......| ........ l. . ..... ....... ........ ........ ...... ..... . ........ ........ ....... ....... .. .. ....... I.. .. .... I CMAtgu Award Q 13 18 Equipment Procurement ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~....... ........ .......... ..........| | ... - .1 "--, .. ..... .... ..... ..... ..... ..... ...... ......... ... . Lt^w 1--1-1--:1::1~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.... .-.......--S ........ .... ..... .... 1 : 1 .. .... . .. .1.........:...-..... .:........ .... .... ....:.... ....1.... 10 Consultants 3_ _ - II PantTamauof Rcrpaa 3I 004- 12 Impa|rerrrepoal -t /lM I 10/1o 13 NegoaiaaiauI A 03 11/16 14 Cairut Award J1 U/I 15 Disputes Review Board 93 16 Reauibnad ~~~~~~~~~~~~7/17 ~ 9I 17 O&M SUPPORT I i'i 5130... 1s Equipment Procurement MEN NW. . . ... ... 19 hprurs DB Doaamata I/l 6/3 ___________________________~~~~. ...... .... .. . .. ...- . I.............................. ............. ..................... 20 Bidding (ICB) a . . -.-.1- ./ 2 1 supply a 130--- ...... ..... .... ........ ... 22 Catgut Award , ..B I 12. 23 Vehicles and Miscellaneous -.- ______________________________~~~~... ... .-.-.. ... . .. ...... ... .. .--....- ... .................................. 24 Fyqaires"pec iic*aaa 1 7131 25 NCB/L.mI Shoping Stais.. .,.. ..U. . _____________________ _ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~VICD BANGLADESH- RIVERBANK PROTECTION PROJECT -Procurement Scbedule __ 1994 _9 19_ [ 1997 sn9 199_ 20 ID Namw 9! Q2!Q1Q 5±.1 Q 2± IQ 2±1102 Q31Q41QIjQ2 3Q4Q 13 102±!2Q!2! 1 02 0 2± .! Q2 26 Supply Stea I IlI I a) [its 27 TA Maintenance & Support _._...- - ' '-' 2l Prqpe TemRa oRence 10/l 12/2 19_ _N_ _t__ ... . ............ ._ _.._ . ........ ... . ...-... ..-....... . .... . ... ... 29 Nqi8c /I 2/33 _0 1C w ....... ........ ........ ....... ........ ........ A ..... ........ ......I........... .. _W_..... .... ...... .. . . . _ ._ ..... ... ... ........ ....... 3 0 t ^wi Fsi _ . ...... ........ _ ..... ..... ...... j .... ....... ..... ...... ._. ,i sto ..... ....... ........... ........ ...... - .- . .. .................. ........... ........ 30 ConIt~ Awuid & Sipinjsj 31_ _ _ _ _ _Cl_ _OES_......._......._......_....._......_..._ _ _ _..._........_..___ ... . ... . . . . .... ........ . ...... ........ ....... 31 M9NRIIWRS....~..L. 32 Dd Nil B) D-- 1 .. - - B it ____ ____ ___|___ ___ ____ _M_ * 4/4LTE ° /A . - . - ..-3/31 34 fliddina NCB) . ...4....... ....... 35_ _ __g_a_ _ _ __w_ _ _....... ....... ...... ....... . Critical ietoe SCOMPLETED MR =c Project: BANGLADESHI - RI Neneritical S PLANNED AL O.......h-~ Date: 7125195 %4 ]Prgress Roiled Uip C) Miletone S ........~~~~~~~~~~ ..... .-1 ---'"'' ''''''.''''''''''''' 0(19 Ill j~~~~~df palt m(ti l t~~~~~ 6vI 2. U/l' .,s I ^ < 2 ........ ....... ......................... ... ............ ........... - '''' ........ ...... ............ ........ ........ ........ ....... ........ ........ ........ ........ ........ ........ ........ t i j ........I r i .4 T ........ ........ ....... ........ ........ ....... ....... ........ ........ ........ ....... ......... ..... ....... .... ........ ........ ........ ........ ..... .. ... ...... ..... ........ . ... ..... .... ..... ... .~~~~~~~~~O/ 111:1u- uW *dop3Jd(J E . I I , . ..... _ _ _ __..._._...... ........ ........ 1......... ........ ....... . ...... ''' '''' ''' '''' ........ .................... .......I........ ....... I .. . ..... I Iti~~~IEC riauomj etol *nddjp3 __ EI r5"93 JA0j 3 ....... T l 1 .. l |.I ...... ..... ...... .. ... ....... . . ... . ........ . . . . . . . ........ ...................... ........ ......3 j V l 9 ! 1 l + 1 I 1 I l ! 1- ! I X 0 '8 ' IDE' 't --1--013as 9 !uuIfuJ!s )W IIJoM J° J°dUo!PIJ}Uo)5U- 1D3M011 NOI1331OHJ )INVfl)fAIl-IS3UV19NVH .... .... ............... .... ... .... .... .......... .............. ....... ..... ....1 ... ... .... ............... ........ BANGLADESH- RIVERBANK PROTECTION PROJECT -Construction Program for Works at Sirajganj 1996 1997 199 1999 2000 2001 ID Nume Ql I Q2 I Q3 Q4 Ql Q2 Q3 !Q Q2 I Q3 ! Q4 Q Q2 IQ3 04 Q 2 IQ Q Q Q2 I Q3 Q4 26 Section B I - 4 ..- 27 landRe.damaumio(I) 4/1 6/3I 23 1Anad Reclamation (2) 4I 6/30 2 Z(2, a ....... ...... .. ..... 41 _ 6 o. ............ ........... . .... . ...... ....... ... .. ....... .... ... ........... ........... . ............................................... Project:Critical Milestoae COMPLETED F 3 Dale: 7flo/s Noncritical Summary w PLANNED *. I o . Progress=5a Rolled Up O Milestooe CK ....-J BANGLADESI- RIVERBANK PROTECTION PROJECT - IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE _ _ Rs 1996 Ig97 _ 19" I9999" _ 2000 ID Nwm I Ql I Qi I Qj I Q4 Ql | Q2 I Q3 I Q4 Ql 02 I e4 Ql _ Q3 Q4 I A.RIVERBANK PROTECTION _/31 2 SARIKANDIIMATIIURAPARA , .0 .._ 3 LAND ACQLJISMON 4 *1_1_ 4t0 4 RESETTLEMENT _ CONSTRUCTON -1- . SEEM 6 SIRAJGANJ 6no 7 LAND ACQUISMON ~~CNtRUTO .jz<1z........._.......9t0_.. .... _______ 3 RESETTLEMENT 9 COST-UCT1:N-- - 1 10laS NON 11000.. 111 -1-1:10 .---- I0 I I MINOR CIVIL WORKS 12 LAND ACQUISITION103 a a saaa 90 10 O&M UNI T STBSHATt| ---*-Lf.~..-......l-- .. .... ....... .. 13 RESETTLEMENT t 0U00 121 14 CONSTRucTON (Om -) Is CONSTRUCTION (iat 2)on t a M M 43 17 IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT 11 19 IMPROVED O&M 20 OhM UNIT ESTABUSHMANT 21 TA MAINTENANCE SU PPORT W 22 EQU1PMENT &VEHICLE PROCUiREMENT I043 ~~~~~I.. - - .. - -. --...- .. .... . 23 ANNUAL MONITORING & MAINTENANCE 24 SARIAKANDVJMATHURAPARLA 2S SIRAJOANJ Project: Noncritical ~~~Summary PLUNNED &........ BANGLADESH- RIVERBANK PROTECTION PROJECT - CoasIrucIion Program for Works aS MalburparasSanakaudl _~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~9 I"97 I 19s _9 2000 _ -ID Name 3 2 I 2 Q3 Q3II I Q q Q 110 3~ 1 PREPARATORY e _ _ _ _1 z *i lis im 1 - 3n 1 ................ _ ........ . ........ . 8600.* . ..... . ....... ............. ...... . ..... . . . . . . . . . . ....................... . ........ .. .......... . . ...,.. .......... ..... . ... . ........ . ....... 2 MobiUisation I 5 SlOpilehn t._ ....... ........ /3,l * _ _ _ _ ........ 12' 1 ... _ ... _ ....... .. _ ........ ............ ...... _..... __.... .__.. _......... ............. ................... ..... ..... 3 Reclai Whnk Am_ - -2 4 Sdtup Ya da NW Atcamunodal 4I1 11 L S b pths | w ,-1-1_I I Iv 4ns 1 ........................................... .. _ ....... .... .................................................... .......... ..... ..... ._... ..... ..... ..... .... .. . S Stockpile AnnouI 6 MATHUIRAPARA(KALITOLA) -.-.-30.. 23 UwSI 9_ __ *_4__1-1 4__-l-111 -t-_-m__- _. ........................................................ _ _. _. _. __. ._ _. .................................... . . ..._..... 7 Dmrdp andFii S Ramww ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ S ....- . .-....- . .- . ---.--.,..- .~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~. ...... ... 9 RWnkdg to hotk II33 10 Pleos Oeetuidih -' - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _.--I,- . -..- . ...-...- . -. .~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~. - .... ..... .... .... ..... .. ... .. .... ... .... I I PlacaAjwa2a35/ 24 Clesl W*tzdaXr 1 ~~~~~ *--_X-|---_-| --_---[ -_-|---_--|------ *- -r- $/3|-| * ....................................-.. ....... ............................... ... ...... ....._......._. ...... ....... ...... 33 iAwUS1e~paAJ~in5 -. _ . - ,- - - . 14 Cr wgimWmtud auabw g3 1$ t.-.***..*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.-......- .~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~. -..~~~~~~~~.... .... ..... .... ... 16 SARIAKANDI o II Dmda &ad Fill IWI loll 19 Rv*o Bc44 | Nkal I I' 20 |e GeoOextil 12i o 21 ?I"* A"on 9 22 Law=s Skip Aanmoing a 21 4/29 23 tWesSIop.Am-iangaI 24 CadWa.ke nd an-bw a i 53j 35 ~~~~~~~~~~izagaco aid CIaa-aap ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~. . . - ..-..~.... ... ......... 23 Danobil"im aW Cloa-up Ske 1-4 ~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~6(30t - N Critical Milcstone COMPLETED _t_,~~~~~~~~ \- BANGLADESH- RIVERBANK PROTECTION PROJECT -Procurement Schedule 1993 1996 399 3995 1999 200(J_ ID Nune_ Q | Q 3| Q4| Ql I Q2 I Q3| Q4| Ql |Q2 I|3Q4Q 2 I |3Q Ql Q29 I 19Q3 I Q4 Ql _2IQ 4 I WorkProgram 9/11 3II . _ _ 2 GOB Afwovai of Waa so Flood a _ 9/11__ _ 3 IudarLaindl Dolw Ccmfauws an FAP&Wi ad F _ __ - Flo _l _ _ _ 4 R licwa R_ IndVnl _ _31ow _ __ _da__ __ _ FPCO Mped with WARPO _ . 329 _ 6 FIull Muii-dspliiary Staff _Apo=a_ _ 7 Work Plan for 1996-2000 _ 9 National Water Management _0 Fcpu lianhiof _D_JV Plan _ 6_3 12 )edsdanAfm-I Wuta so"c "am jda 13 lanL4arm Wau Boaw stralegy 14 L.,ong4em WWad jedS 3 2130O 15 Technical assistance 16 TA Recruitment -1|_ 17 PrepareTOR A / I I lnvit Propsals 21 39 Evahluaim sai Rzt4ew dPof posaVi03s5 20 CmUsd Negcalsiamu sai Awwid 2 1 FieldTA 22 Skilb Tmauhf (Traing) .7/ 23 Procurement of Computers and Equipme _| 24 propm Sp"s__ Critkal Milestone (I) COMPLETED _ | Project: 0 - Date: 10/16/9S Noocric ikal C D Somiary W _ PLANNED Ao. Ah Progren RoUe Up O Mlestone @ BANCLADESI- RIVERBANK PROTECTION PROJECT -Procurement Schedulc 1995 1996 199 Me8 1999 2000 ID Nu=# Ql |Q2 I Q3 I Q4 Ql Q1 I Q1 Q4 Ql Q2 I_Q Q4 Ql Q2 I _3Q Ql Q2 IQ1 I Q4 Ql |Q1 I Q1 Q4 Q 25~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~03 26 Overseas Training _1 27 1D}m Tman NOD& .w ___ 7/1n _ is 21 SkdWaa o(Tnining _and _mcc 12__1 29 B'edaia of Can&d.e- 1-1 .2: 30 Trmmdg S~ta W 6/30 31 Policy Support Team 32 TOR 34 Ope__ 63 _ F |wkjd C r ilsMlae ^ @ COMPLKTKD | _ Date: 1011l0S | NcriLica S_ry PLANNED | Pws RAd eUp OMUales < Annex 7 Page 16 of 16 ANNEX 8 Page 1 of 18 BANGLADESH RIVER BANK PROTECTION PROJECT Economic Analysis 1. Tables I and 2 summarize the economic analysis of the Sariakandi/Mathurapara and Sirajganj sub-projects. The following sections outline the method used. A. Proiect Benefits 2. The benefits of the project are damages avoided by preventing river bank erosion. These damages arise out of land loss to erosion, local and regional flooding as a result of breaches of the BRE, and of a merger of the Bangali and Brahmaputra rivers. The erosion losses include the agricultural production foregone from destruction of agricultural and urban land, and the loss of private property and public infrastructure on flooded land. The flood damages consist of: (a) total loss of crops, livestock, property and infrastructure near a BRE breach at a given location; (b) partial damage to crops, property and infrastructure in the flooded region behind a BRE breach; (c) partial damage to crops, property and infrastructure in the incremental area of about 100,000 ha of the Karatoa-Bangali-Ichimati river system flood plain, which would be subject to flooding hazards due to perennial augmentation of Bangali river flow when the Bangali river channel would become a distributory river of the Brahmaputra; and (d) savings in construction costs of local BRE retirements at locations where potential BRE breaches are prevented. 3. Some benefits could not be quantified for lack of data. The crop, property and infrastructure damage that might be caused by deeper flooding of the 200,000 ha area of the Karatoa-Bangali-Ichimati rivers' flood plain, presently vulnerable to periodic flooding, was not quantified. The losses due to disruptions of road and rail traffic during flooding of the transportation network could not be calculated. Losses attributable to disincentives to private investment in and around the flood area also could not be estimated. B. Erosion Losses Prevented Land Losses 4. The land losses to erosion are equal to the total area eroded in hectares multiplied by the land value per hectare. The area eroded at each site was estimated from the length of bankline at risk and the expected rate of erosion. Expected erosion rates of lOOrn/annum over 22 km at Sariakandi/Mathurapara, and 90m/annum over 19 km at Sirajganj were determined by the River Training Studies of the Brahmaputra (BRTS) for the period 1973-1992. To calculate the land value per hectare, eroded land was divided into six categories: (i) agricultural land protected by the BRE; (ii) unprotected agricultural land between the BRE and the Brahmaputra river; (iii) market land; (iv) urban land; (v) peni-urban land; and (vi) Thana HQ land. Since 50% of the urban land in Sirajganj would be lost in the first five years, together with the built-up area (Thana. HQ land) of Sanrakandi, while land losses in the subsequent 25 years would be predominantly rural, it is appropriate to consider the categories of land losses separately during these two periods. The losses by category for years I - 5 and years 6 - 30 are given in Table 3. ANNEX 8 Page 2 of 18 5. Table 3 also gives the unit land values, which are equal to the net present value of output over 30 years, discounted at 12%. The calculation of the agricultural land values assumes that crop output increases at an annual rate of 3%.1' The values of non-agricultural land are assumed equal to their observed market prices. Property and Infrastructure Losses 6. Buildings were divided into three construction quality categories--"pucca", semi-pucca and "katcha".2' Estimates of the numbers of buildings expected to be lost over five years without the project are given in Table 4. The economic unit values were derived by adjusting the financial unit value (based on LGEB rates) with an appropriate SCF. For semi-pucca and katcha buildings, the unit values are based on the costs of relocation and the damage to the structure during its dismantling. Pucca buildings have been priced at their replacement cost. 7. The following assumptions have been made in deriving property and infrastructure losses: (a) The annual property and infrastructure losses for the first five years at Sariakandi/ Mathurapara are the average losses of the five-year period. (b) One third of the Sirajganj town land (i.e, 500 ha)--of which 450 ha is urban and 50 ha peri-urban--would be lost in five years. Since the main commercial area would be affected in the initial period, it has been assumed that 50% of the property and infrastructure of the town would be lost. The rate of loss approximates: Year 1 - 15%; Year 2 - 20%; Year 3 - 25%; Year 4 - 25%; and Year 5 - 15%. (c) All annual property and infrastructure losses grow by 3% in real terms per annum to reflect regional economic growth. Employment Losses 8. Prevention of lost wages is counted as a project benefit. The period of lost wages is four months, as this is the duration of temporary unemployment of non-agricultural workers caused by destruction of buildings (Table 5). Total employment losses were converted to annual losses on the basis of the following assumptions: (a) Some 50% of the buildings located in the commercial area of Sirajganj are destroyed in the first five years, so half of the earnings loss is incurred in equal annual amounts in the first five years. The other half is spread uniformly over years 6 - 30. (b) As Sariakandi is assumed to be destroyed in the first five years, total wage losses are incurred at a uniform annual rate over five years. (c) The unit economic monthly wages lost are estimated from market wages. A gross annual economic income of Tk 30,000 per ha is derived for protected land for 1991, A gross margin of Tk 18,200 is obtained by deducting input costs of Tk 7,000 and Tk 4,800 for hired labor. For unprotected land with a lower value cropping pattern, a gross annual revenue of Tk 23,200 per ha was used, giving a gross margin of Tk 11,400 per ha. 2/ See Glossary for definitions. ANNEX 8 Page3of 18 C. BRE Breach Losses Prevented 9. Benefits in the form of damage avoidance from BRE breaches consists of the damages near the breach caused by sudden flooding, and damages beyond the breach where there is deep and prolonged inundation. Near the breach damages consist of crops, livestock, property and infrastructure lost or destroyed when the breach occurs; and reduction of soil productivity for several years due to sand deposition as the flood recedes. 10. Each damage near the breach is evaluated separately as described below; regional flood damage evaluation is described in Section D, together with the evaluation of regional flood damages caused by a merger of the Brahmaputra and Bangali rivers. 11. Without the project, it is impossible to retire the BRE at Sariakandi/Mathurapara following its imminent breach in the first project year. Any retirement would be subject to an immediate breach by ongoing erosion as the Bangali river, in effect, acts as a physical boundary for any retirement. Since resources would not be wasted on retirements, the BRE's hinterland would be subject to regular annual flooding from the open breach. This would continue for several years until the land between the Bangali and the Brahmaputra would be eroded and a merger occurs, resulting in exacerbated regional flooding in subsequent years. At Sirajganj, the BRE is assumed to be breached in the first project year causing severe damage to the town. Since the BRE would have to be retired behind the town, the town would be exposed to regular annual flooding. For the agricultural areas of Sirajganj, it is assumed that breaches occur in years 6 and 8, followed by four years of security. This cycle is assumed to be repetitive with subsequent BRE breaches in years 13, 15, 20, 22, 27 and 29. Crop Losses 12. Complete crop loss. In the severely affected areas close to a breach, a total loss of one year's crop is assumed. The crop loss is the area damaged, in hectares, multiplied by the average value per hectare . The area is related to the length of the breach and hence varies among locations. Surveys indicate that the area is about 400 ha. Since only one BRE breach is expected near Sariakandi,41' the area affected would include 80 ha of Thana HQ land, so the crop land lost would be 320 ha. Because Sirajganj is mainly urban, the agricultural land severely affected by a BRE breach would be only about 100 ha. The average value per hectare is the net economic margin; the values are 24,008 Tk/ha in Sariakandi/Mathurapara and 21,470 in Sirajganj (Working Files - BRTS Master Plan Report, Technical Annex 2 Economic Assessment, May 1993). The economic net margin per ha is equal to the gross value of output (yield per hectare times economic price) less cash and imputed economnic costs of production. The economic margin per ha is an average weighted by the share of each crop in the area damaged by the breach. 13. Partial crop loss. Sand deposition near the breach causes the soil to be less productive. These areas are generally planted with sugar cane which withstands inundation, although yields are reduced (this may occur as a result of future exposure of the area as a result of retirement of the BRE in the breach vicinity). It was assumed that for four years after the breach only sugar cane is planted in the See Glossary for definitions. Following this breach, no BRE retirements re effective or likely because of the proximity of the Bangali river. lbus, the breach would remain open leaving the hinterland exposed to regional flooding until erosion causes a merger of the Banplia nd Brahmaputraiyers a few years hence. ANNEX 8 Page4of 18 severely affected area and that its yield would be 20% less than average. Hence, the value of the crop loss is the total loss (as explained in para. 12) minus 80% of the net margin in sugar cane production. Livestock Losses 14. Significant livestock losses normally occur in areas severely affected by a BRE breach. The estimated stock losses are given in Table 6, based on field surveys of 1991 market prices, updated to 1994 prices, and converted to economic values by the standard conversion factor. Property and Infrastructure Losses 15. The property and infrastructure likely to be destroyed or relocated by a BRE breach are given in Table 6. These estimates are based on field surveys. With respect to the valuation of different property categories, the economic damage to semi-pucca and katcha buildings are based on the costs of relocation and dismantling given in Table 4. Severe flood damage to buildings was assumed to be 50% of the economic replacement value of pucca buildings, and 100% of the dismantling and relocation costs of semi-pucca and katcha buildings. Valuation of damage to infrastructure was based on the full economic replacement cost of a damaged length of road or railway embankment as given in Table 4. Since Sirajganj town is exposed to annual flooding through a BRE breach from year 2, an annual loss equivalent to 50% of full breach damage is assumed for years 2 - 30, but at a declining rate as the town is eroded over this period. Losses Due to BRE Retirements 16. The project is assumed to save the costs of eight BRE retirements at Sirajganj over a 30 year period, assuming that those retirements would occur without the project. About 2.5 km of embankment would be constructed each year for a period of three years following each breach at a unit economic cost of Tk 7.2 million per kTn, or Tk 18.0 million per year. An area between 150 ha and 60 ha is expected to remain unprotected each year as a result of each retirement. Flooding on the river side of the BRE would cause the average net economic margin in this area to by about Tk 6,873 per ha, as the cropping pattern would shift to lower-value crops and cropping intensity would fall. D. Regional Flood Losses Prevented 17. Breaching of the BRE at Sariakandi/Mathurapara and Sirajgani causes augmentation of the flood in the Karatoa-Bangali-Ichimati river system. The maximum impact would be caused by breaches at Sariakandi which result in deeper regional flooding in the above flood plain as well as incremental flooding of areas normally protected by the, BRE. This impact is expected to be an annual occurrence because the expected breach at Sariakandi would not be repaired. After about five years, when erosion has resulted in merger of the Bangali and Brahmaputra rivers, deeper regional flooding and a larger incremental area inundated will result. 18. In order to derive a probability distribution of the incremental area flooded, BRE breaches and the river merger were simulated in a mathematical model. Modeling of BRE breach impacts was undertaken by the River Training Studies of the Brahmaputra River. The results are sunumarized in: Report on Model Studies. ID Numerical Hvdrodvnamic Modeling of the Brahmaputra River; Volume 3, Part 7, Dhaka, March 1993. Modeling of flooding caused by the merger of the Bangali and Brahznaputra rivers was undertaken by the Surface Water Modeling Centre and summarized in: Breakthrough to the Baneali River at Mathurapara--Mathematical Model Tnvestitations, Dhaka, May 1993. ANNEX 8 Page 5 of 18 19. Using available rainfall and river flow data for 1986-1989, the model was calibrated by comparison with actual observed water levels at 13 locations. The four years simulated represent a wide range of possible rainfall and runoff events. For the project area, 1986 was an average year in terms of rainfall and Brahmaputra river flood levels, while in 1989 the area experienced lower than average monsoon rainfall. During 1987 there was widespread regional flooding because of extensive rainfall and drainage congestion, while the 1988 flood was the worst recorded. Following its successful calibration, the model was used to investigate regional flooding caused by BRE breaches and merger of the Bangali and Brahmaputra rivers using data for 1986-1989. The results provided estimates of the maximum incremental area flooded, i.e., relative to the flooding experienced without breaches or the river merger. Crop Damage and Production Losses 20. Crop Dama2e. Reductions in unit economic crop gross margins as a result of flood damage were estimated on the basis of the percentage reduction in yield of the principal crops cultivated during the period July-September (Table 7). Since most of the incremental area flooded lies bet-ween Sariakandi and Sirajganj, a cropping pattern of 50% high yielding transplanted Aman, 35% transplanted local improved Aman, and 10% sugar cane was assumed. For transplanted Aman damaged in July, it has been assumed that the young plants would be destroyed, and would be replanted in August with a 40% yield reduction. August and September flooding would result in direct crop damage. The losses are multiplied by the percentage of the total area under each crop to derive an expected regional net economic crop damage for each month. 21. An estimate for very severe flooding causing total crop loss is also made. Depending on the month of maximum flooding, the loss of net economic margin per ha is multiplied by the incremental areas flooded to derive the expected net economic production loss. These expected losses are weighted by the probability of the Brahmaputra flood levels giving rise to such incremental areas (Table 8). The resulting expected value is used in the economic analysis as an estimate of annual crop damage caused by sustained flooding through a BRE breach at Sariakandi, and subsequently as a result of merger of the Brahmaputra and Bangali rivers. A similar method was used for regional crop damage caused by a BRE breach at Sirajganj. 22. Production Losses Caused by Cropping Pattern Changes. Another possible production loss is the effect of flooding on cropping systems. Most of the agricultural flood control benefits of the BRE result from expansion of HYV transplanted Aman in the monsoon season, replacing flood-tolerant, but low-yielding broadcast Aman or a mixture of broadcast Aus and Aman. With continued flooding, farmers would revert to the lower-yielding cropping pattem. In order to project the likely changes to regional cropping pattems caused by flooding, typical cropping pattems were derived from simulation models. It has been assumed that the timing, duration and depth of flooding that occurred in 1989 without BRE breaches represent average flooding conditions. The proportion of cultivated area at various flood depths and the prevailing cropping pattems were taken as the base case. The base case was compared with sustained flooding as a result of augmentation of Bangali river flows and the impact on flood depths was assessed in terms of the appropriate rice crop required to minimize risk of crop damage. The income difference between regional cropping pattems writh and without the project was estimated to be Tk 179.3 million, or the annual loss to an inferior cropping pattem prevented by the project. Property and Infrastructure Damage Avoided 23. Floods of the magnitude of those of 1987 and 1988 can cause extensive damage to property and infrastructure although the effects of flooding in most years are minimal. A regional average financial value of damage to property and infrastructure of Tk 226 per hectare wvas adopted, based on damage frequency analyses calculated by the FAP's Northwest Region Study, and converted to an economic value ANNEX 8 Page 6 of 18 of Tk 185 per ha at a conversion factor of 0.82. The unit economic value was then multiplied by the maximum incremental areas inundated by augmentation of Bangali river flows, and an expected annual economic damage to property and infrastructure was derived (Table 9). For BRE breaches at Sirajganj, an annual expected economic damage of Tk 139,000 (TK 185 per ha) was derived with a similar procedure. E. Capital and O&M Costs Capital Cost of Project Works 24. The economic costs of bank protection works were derived by converting financial estimates into economic prices. The financial estimates were grouped into the following cost categories: skilled and unskilled labor, machinery and equipment, cement, brick, geotextiles, transport, storage, housing, temporary works, bonds and insurance, and survey/tests. Price contingencies and transfer payments for land acquisition, taxes and duties were excluded from economic costs.. Application of the detailed conversion factors resulted in an overall ratio of economic to financial costs of about 80% for Sariakandi/Mathurapara and Sirajganj. Conversion factors for skilled and unskilled labor were used to convert estimates of engineering supervision costs to economic prices. O&M Costs 25. Projections of O&M costs are based on the personnel costs of the O&M Unit, technical assistance personnel, procurement of vehicles and equipment and their operating costs, costs of materials (brick, cement and geotextile) required to replenish revetment armor. Replenishment materials were estimated at 1% and 5% of armor capital costs for routine maintenance and preventative maintenance respectively. Preventative maintenance is assumed to be required every five years. Maintenance vehicles and equipment are assumed to have a functional life of about 12-14 years and are replenished in the 14th and 25th years. F. Economic Justification Economic Analysis 26. There are separate economic analyses for Sariakandi/Mathurapara and Sirajganj. The economic investment and recurrent costs were subtracted from the economic benefits each year in a 30 year planning horizon to derive the incremental net benefit streams shown in Tables I and 2. The indicators of profitability derived were Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) and Net Present Value (NPV). The economic rate of return (ERR) for the project is 36.9%, and those for the Sariakandi/Mathurapara and Sirajganj subprojects are 35.3% and 39.9%, respectively. At a 12% discount rate, the NPV of incremental benefits is US$58.4 million and those of Sariakandi/Mathurapara and Sirajganj are US$40.6 million and US$17.8 million, respectively. BANGIADESH RIVER BANK PROTECTION PROJECT Table 1: Economic Analysis of SarblkandiJAIathurapars River Bank Protection Works (Tk millbos) agz1S: LOSSZSAVOIDED 6 I I 3 4 5 f 7 5 9 9 I II 11 13 14 A. Loee _ms Aleled 1. Ere ._ Cm.que LuL r2 - 52.9 329 529 52 9 329 411 411 4I 1 411 411 411 41 I 411 411 opyaty Losc 213 224 2Dl 238 243 32 51 335 6 51 60 62 64 65 Inhuuuc*" Lass 41 43 44 4S 47 I9 19 20 20 21 22 22 23 24 Tenpoy Euhy- I.- - 35 60 6.1 63 63 - - - - Sob-TeolEr_ eu low" -4.6 855 86.5 n7.5 8u.6 45.2 45.4 48.6 4U.2 49.1 49.3 49.5 49.5 s5.3 2. *RE rch lad Din-a Sever Crop D _-a 7 6 6 8 6 I 6 8 6 8 - - - - - - - L etockLa 0 I a * . Simere Propy DOn-ge 33 2 102 5 3 2 6 13 - . . Scrvel Infre cture Dunage I 8 4 4 2 2 I I 0 6 Swb-ToIeI Svere Floed lsses * 56.6 21.1 341 2S.5 8.7 B. RegionaI Flood Damasge 1. 8RE Breech Coe eeq.m Pmiia Crop Lo1se I602 1602 160.2 1602 1602 - - - . - - Panil Pfopenyllsft Losses 2 6 2 6 2 6 2 6 26 - - . I. Bngali Rtiver CapGare Coanqoeet_ Partial Crop Loasm - - 2016 203 6 203 6 203 6 203 6 203 6 203 6 203 6 203 6 PallPropentyilaoftasure Losa- - * - 453 453 453 453 453 453 3 433 433 4S3 £ Reduao ian AgirIo.d Poai" 44.1 87 1345 1793 3793 1793 1793 3193 3193 I793 1793 1793 1793 1793 Swl-total RIqinee homes 217.6 252.4 297.3 342.1 342.1 418.2 428.2 4282. 428.2 428.2 428.2 428.2 428.2 42U.2 TOTAL COSTS AVOIDED:. 342.8 359.4 397.9 440.1 439.3 476.4 476.6 476.8 477.0 477J 477.5 477.7 478.0 47.3 P1103ECT CAPITAL COSTS 1. BRE Rtigpla- - 24.3 34.3 2 B" Protekion Works 6U4 4663 4134 191 3 Sh asin BWB Costs 42 4 65 6 79 5 28 7 14 3 SobTotal Capital Cots 730.7 533.1 517.2 82.2 14.3 RaeIIte..e 2.6 4.6 O&M COSTS 1. Emr _akou RedrwuwA . 09 0.9 0.9 09 09 I3a I8 I I I8 I I Ia Ia 2 Soik PreBede W m - 7.6 387 43.7 13.3 13.3 I4.6 435 391 191 931 391 435 454 703 Soo-TOm O&M - 7. 39.6 44.6 14.2 14.2 5.5 45 20.9 26.9 28.9 20.9 45.3 47.2 72.1 CapilrlaiOIhrO&M c-s 740.9 578.1 513. 96.4 28.5 31.5 45.3 20.9 209 20.9 209 45.3 47.2 721 Uveoidable bak rot r oost . .l s- Tocl. coStS dl,dsab erbs.,p . 740 9 578 1 561 a 96 4 24 5 3F S JS* 20 2) 2 09 ,3)) 2119 4J 3 472 2 I to..rem. "et..Inet3rnetOd (3983I (2127) (1639) 3431 4103 4609 4313 4559 456 1 4561 4566 4324 41114 4062 > Econaomic llternal Rali ol Hewnrc 33.0% O Net Pr.can Value (Tk) 1,614.7 40J - 9' 0 rri t3j Q000 BANGLADESH RIVER BANK PROTECHON PROJECT Tablt 1: Ecomomic Analysis oSariakandi/Mathurpars River Bank Protection Works (Tk millions) BEtNEFITS: LOSSES AVOIDED 15 1 17 I1 19 10 21 22 13 24 15 14 27 23 29 30 A. Lacul hauses ,ls 1. Etudes C c LaedLo 433 411 411 411 41.1 411 411 411 411 411 411 411 411 411 411 41 1 PfpuLose 67 6.9 7.2 74 76 7.1 IL 0.3 85 88 91 93 96 99 101 2 05 w _*ubudas LOU" 24 25 26 27 27 28 2.9 3.0 1 32 33 14 I5 36 17 18 T_mpewy EuOD e Ls - - - SallToda3E.reesskm" 5.3 91.6 51.9 s S1.2 51.5 53.0 52.1 s2.4 52 53.3 35 s3.8 4.2 54. 5s5. s5.4 L *RF Dread Fld Din. Sve Ce - - - D- - - - Livesock LtAm - - - - - - - - - - Se- Pops" D _n.p - . . . . . . . . Sev i*ncum Du - p . - . . . . . Ss-Tecal Severe h "ad a D. Regisal Flood Damage 1. SRI Drad Caasegmcs Pua Cto Lp a taid hpenyllolf& - s - - . . . . . . . 2. SL agl Rles Capture Cimsequemon tlal C,op Loss 2036 203 6 23 23 2036 203.6 203.6 2036 2036 203 6 203 6 203 6 2036 2036 2036 2036 PuldWPropserly/inhamcume Los 453 453 453 45.3 45.3 45.3 45S.1 45.3 45.3 453 4S3 453 4S3 453 453 451 t neducein A -u, wd Psesi 1793 1793 3793 1793 179.3 1793 1793 17933 179 1793 1793 1793 1793 1793 1793 1791 Sebila Rep" i_. 42152 4211.2 40.2 42112 412.2 411.2 412.2 418. 48.2 411. 431.1 414.1 418.2 418.2 41.1 412.2 TOALCOSTSAVOIDED: 475 47.8 479.1 479.4 479.7 488. 41. 48.6 481.0 413 481.7 483.8 481.4 4S2. 4u.2 483.6 PROJECT CAMPTAL COSTS 1. BRE pA Igae-. 2 8us Prossm Works 1 Sh t BfWL Ctnr se- - - - - - - - - - - - SubTeed Captl C_se . . . . subTai cns cd 0*18 COSTS 3 E _b ss _ I.digaef .1S 1.8 1. 1.8 13. 1.8 .8 I.S 1.8 1.8 I I 3 I.8 i1 '1. I a 2 at3 tt 1ab 39.1 39.3 19. 39.3 39.3 1391 39. 19.1 39.3 39.3 9 191 9.9 19.1 39. III 39.1 Sub-Tem OU5 29 0.9 XI9 2 .9 28.9 20.9 2t.9 189 20.9 2t.9 2a.9 21.9 389 09 289 20.9 Capltal/Other/OhH ce1b 28.9 20.9 36.9 38.9 20.9 28.9 28.9 20.9 28.9 30.9 20.9 20.9 20.9 20.9 20.9 20.9 U earbi bash enod_s lse - - - - - . - . . . . . . - Total costsand bank es"or 20.9 20.9 20.9 20.9 30.9 20.9 20.9 20.9 20.9 20.9 20.9 209 20.9 20.9 20.9 209 lncremeae.laecbeaeSit 4576 4571 4551 4584 4517 4590 4594 4597 4600 4604 4607 461 t 4615 4619 46213 4621 Icss..ic Istersa ltKate of Ktel.e, i 6 0 'z Ne Protst Vlse (Tb) e0:I 0's (0 BANGLADESH RIVER BANK PROTECTION PROJECT Table 2: Ecoonomic Analysis of Sirajganj River Bank Protection Works (Tk million) BENEFITS:osses AVOIDED 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 * 9 10 II 12 13 14 A. Erosion Consequenccs Land Los - 322 2 429 6 537 0 537 0 322 2 108 0 108 0 108 0 l0S 0 10S 0 10S 0 l0t 0 10t 0 t0S 0 Property Losses - 64 6 3 2 107 2 1380 142 1 23 6 24 3 25 0 25 8 26 6 27 3 28 2 29 0 29 9 Infastnructure Losses 8 0 134 134 134 107 43 44 45 47 48 50 531 53 54 Tcrnportay Emplyment Lossts 395 406 419 43 1 444 - - - - - - - - Sab-Tot lEr.siouCsuaqse.s 434.3 566.9 699.4 731.5 519.4 135.9 136.7 137.6 138.5 139.4 140.3 141.3 142.3 143.3 B. DRE Breach Coaseq ncs Severc Crop Damage - 21 19 19 19 19 21 19 19 19 19 12 12 21 19 Partial Crop Damagc - 59 5 9 5 9 . - 5 9 Livestock Loases - 0 5 - - - - - - Sevem Property Dama4e 1293 66.6 59.9 479 40t8 - SeverelnfasuctureDsge - 202 10.1 100 99 98 97 96 95 94 92 90 89 86 83 Paniti nfrastructtweDunaage - 03 - - - 03 0 - - - 01 - Sub-Total ORE Flood loss - 158.2 78.6 71.8 59.7 52.4 17.9 31.5 17.4 11.3 11.1 10.2 10.1 16.t 10.2 C. Areas unproleted4 by BRE Reduced triulturl prodnctioe - I 0 0.9 0 7 0 5 2 1 1 9 1 7 16 4 2 4 2 4 2 4 2 4 2 0. BRE getireeawt costs Consmjction cots saved - 900 - - - - Is 0 0 S0 - - I 80 I 0 Sub-Tecal Retyial - 911. 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.5 20.1 11.9 19.7 1.6 4.2 4.2 4.2 22.2 22.2 TOUIALCOSTSAVOIDED: - 6J2.5 64S 77l 79.9 572.4 173.8 168.1 174.7 151.3 154.6 154.7 155.5 I3I2 17S.7 PROJICT CAPITAL COSTS 1. Bftta&,slih t - - - - - - 62.3 - - - - - - 2 Bank Protcrtion Works - 986.9 58 2 569 7 3 Share io BWB Cost - 596 922 3113 404 20 1 11 5 Sub-Totsl Capib Cotsb 1,046.5 675.4 618.5 40.4 20.1 73.8 - - - - - Reettdement . 3 1.4 O&M COSTS I Embanbnest Rcalipa - - - - - 3 6 1.6 1.6 L.6 16 16 16 16 2 Batnk Proteciao Wota* 10.7 54.4 61.5 18.7 18.7 146 435 19.1 191 19.1 191 435 45.4 703 Sub-TOtlO&M 318.7 S4.4 613 87 317 14.6 45.1 28.7 20.7 20.7 20.7 45.1 47.0 ?I.8 CapitaldOther/O&Mets - 1,.8.0 731.2 743.0 59.1 3.8 8S.4 45.1 20.7 20.7 20.7 20.7 45.3 J7.0 71.S Uttav4nble bank erosio losses -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - Total costs ard bank erosion - 1058.0 731.2 7M3.0 59.1 3.8 88.4 4J 5 I 20.7 20 7 20.7 20.7 45 I J7 t 71.8 Il,,rement. anet benefsg - (375.41 (84.U) 29.1 732. 533.6 t5.4 I32.0 354.3 130.6 134.0 33J.0 310.4 134.J 1059 . D ; Eoonomic Internal Ra t f Return 45.0% <> z Net Present Value ITk) 869.3 21.7 (7736) (3034) (134.8) 1,076.5 9444 5463 5543 6099 5867 5903 5906 5429 5650 5100 0 Awg¢ega* ERR 38.%_ AW NYV (Tknaiim_ ) 2 4U4. AMge" NPV (USS OW) 6*13 BANGLADESH RIVER BANK PROTECTION PROJECT Tabk 2: Economic Analysis of Sirajganj River Bank Protection Works (Tk million) BENEFtTS: l AVOIDED 15 16 17 12 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 23 29 30 A. Erasion C. cnqueuca LadwLaw" IOO U108 10.0 108I0 5080 IOJ.O IW.O 108.0 IU.O 1050 100 10.0 1010 ls 0 IDSOJ IOJO PropestyLows 303 31.7 32.7 336 346 35.7 36.1 379 390 402 414 426 439 452 466 480 Snfristue Loanes 56 5.7 5.9 6.1 63 6.5 6.7 69 71 73 75 77 50 82 34 37 Terpory Em pley Lu ---- - - - - - - - - - - - S.mb.TotI ErmIeC _eaeqaces, 144.4 145.5 146.6 147.7 14t.9 150.2 151.4 152.7 154.1 155.5 156.9 15J.3 159.9 161.4 163.0 164.7 L BRIREr met C _mesem Severe Crop Damse 21 1.9 9 L9 1.9 2.1 L9 21 19 21 19 19 21 19 21 19 Patial Crop Damnae 5.9 - 5.9 5,9 5- - - 59 9 - Livestock Lou- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Severe Propeay Da e - - - - SevereltnrustnjctuwDuage I1 7.5 7.5 7.1 67 64 6.1 5t 55 52 49 47 45 42 40 38 Panial lnfrastucte Daunmae 0.1 0.1 - - 0 ° 0 1 - - ° l - aI - Sub-Total BRE Fble bssi 16.3 9.S 9.3 9.0 8.6 14.6 3.0 13.9 7.4 7.3 6.S 6.6 12.6 6.1 52.2 S.7 C. Are" euprotected by ORE R.dce.d ,grkuSIur Iprodmcti.e 42 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 D. MRE Reiremat cosb Consructioa cost uved 530 - - s 0 15.0 I5 0 - - - * 10 1 S0 I 0 Stb-Totcl Rgi.a4 loa 22-2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.2 22.2 22.2 22.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 22.2 22.2 22.2 4.2 TOTALCOSTSAVOIDUk I5L2 159.4 50.1 160.9 161.7 51.9 IJt.5 IU. 165.4 167.0 167.9 169.1 194.7 U09.7 197.4 174.5 PROJECT CAPITAL COSTS 1. laIiptt - . - - . . . . 2 Bank Protection Works * - - - - - - - - - - - 3 Share in BWB Costs Sub-Tot l Capital Casa - - - - - - - - - - - - - Retdlemet O&M COSTS 1. Embanhbta Reai_tw 1.6 1.6 16 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 16 16 16 1.6 1.6 16 1.6 16 2 BSnk Pbatso Woe 0h ANNEX 8 Pate 12 of 18 Table 4 BANGLADESH RIVER BANK PROTECTION PROJECT Table 4: Unit Economic Value of Propet Categories r _aI SCF EcF MMhnu' Sbaia Sijl0w) M _Wa 5wakmnd Siq*j Pmpqiy N 1n" Cg.gy Usk V_iu Vaiu Nub VI r - PO 1,009000 0.82 1230.000 20.0 75.0 24.0 0 9o220 S _.Pucs 375.610 0.2 308,000 15.0 5.0 33.3 4.620 1.540 M0M Coinwaa md b2awud P. 2.5010,000 0.82 2.M0000 50.0 0 0 61.50 S5_ium 300,000 0.12 410.000 25.0 0 0 1020, Mlm Now"mi.nd Shiny Pa.. 300,w00 0.12 246.000 6.0 - 250.0 1,476 0 61500 SnoPu,m 30,50 0.12 23.010 1.620.0 700.0 6.730.0 40.516 17.507 168218 K1. 9,760 0.2 8,003 1.620.0 700.0 3,300.0 2,53 1.602 26,21 W4,177 24.649 430,"4 Rod P--_ m 2,000,000 0.80 1.600,000 6.0 - 25.0 9,60 0 40.000 K&NM 400,000 0.76 304.000 13.0 10.0 15.0 4.50 3.040 4.560 BridmC iu 30,000 0.78 234.000 10.0 4.0 25.0 2.340 936 S30 £ -nbnhms 3,000.000 0.76 2280,000 - 0.5 0 0 1,140 addPAW-ft 300,000 0.78 234.000 - - 2.0 0 4S Fu_m,imp 240000 0.76 282400 2.0 0 0 3M ews ..d T lepm Lma 25,t00 0.83 20.750 I0.0 2.0 50.0 20 42 1 16.70 4.018 5342 ANNEX A Pate 13 of la Table 5 BANGLADESH RIVER BANK PROTECTION PROJECr Table 5: Non-Agrkckural Empboymot Losses SlJUgaa Town No of Sector employment Etmingspworke Lost Lost Populadon Households % Number (nTihonth) Months Earnings (Tk) Sector 92,000 17,037 Agimcuitur 31% 7,794 Industy 5% 1,278 3,913 5,111 20,000 Commerce 11% 2,683 3,913 10,733 42,000 Othdr 27% 6,926 3,913 27,702 108,399 Unenployed 27% 6,874 978 27,498 26,900 TOTAL 100% 25,556 71,044 197,298 Sarlakaodi Town No of Setor enployment EAmingpworker LAst Lost Populaion Households % Nunber (rkhmonth) Mionths Eamnings (7k) Sector 15,000 2,778 Arickute 36% 1,479 Commerce 11% 431 3,913 1,750 6,848 Odier 27% 1,129 3,913 4,517 17,674 Unmployed 27% 1,121 978 4,413 4,386 TOTAL 100% 4,167 10,750 28,907 ANNEX 8 Pa e 14 of 18 Table 6 BANGLADESH RIVER BANK PROTECTION PROJECT Tabk 6: Unit Economic Voale of Property Cateories Mh4pwS a Si1*ganj M I_m Sisqi Ra- a% ULS TOW R*ph.omi %, Us Tod Plptmy ad blh, Caamy N VaY D_ D_me D_mg Vau Damage D_a D_aa n Tn 000o h Tilk0oon nr Cade 230 200 2,460 1.00 2.460 56s.300.0 2460 100 2.440 246,000.0 s _3oam 450 200 n20 1.00 520 369,000.0 320 1 00 3e l64,000.0 pod.y 3500 3000 25 1.00 25 27,SOO.0 23 100 2S 75,00.0 ~MS 3 D__ kai Botm PI'M 3 30 I,230 0.50 615 4,920.0 1,30 050 615 11,450.0 ssnP.i I3 0 308 1.00 301 2,464.0 410 1 00 410 4,100.0 P,aeea 0 20 0 - 0 - ,230 0 50 615 12,300.0 Sami-P 0 10 0 0 - 410 1 00 410 4,100.0 P,iv Ho m _hop P IS 100 246 0.50 123 1,845.0 246 0 50 123 12,300.0 SwUk c 725 2700 2s 1.00 25 11,125.0 25 1 00 2U 67,500.0 lsMtk 725 1320 a 1.00 * 5s,3o.0 o I 00 I 30,560.0 D_oW _100 3 to 1.6eo 1.00 1,600 4, e0.0 I,Je 1.0 4150 111100.0 _aa 7 6 304 1.00 304 2,1Lv0 304 1 00 304 lm" liddo-Colvens ~ ~ ~ I l 23-4 1.00 234 IMo 2U1 I.oo 2n 2,1O, EM __1080 O la U2 .0 1#2 - 12 1.00 Ila 3&4 lid_fi1~~ ~ ~ ~ ~~ ~ ~~~~ 1 21 1.00 21 -21 I.00 21 I" ANNEX8 Page IS of 18 Table 7 BANGLADESH RIVER DANK PROTECnION PROJECT Table 7: Net Damep per Heetars due to Regional Flooding Gc Vidn bl GC_ Na C,.991. WuV_ Raa atl PIa Rs3 . Da-m IaIa_' Crop Tk (%) Tk ( Floedia u July T. Am(L) 19.39 400% 11.316 7.67 35.0% 2.67 T. Am (HYV) 29.W 40.0% 17.535 11.0 50.&% 5.845 Svwcu 27.0" 20.0% 2116 5.410 10.0% 541 Toeol 9,073 Floo& irn Auag T. Ah 19.193 60.0% 7,677 113.516 35.0% 4.030 T A. 29.,22 600% 11,690 1735 50.0% 8768 Suw.m 27.048 200% 21.638 5.410 100% 541 Totel 133339 Flod in* S T Am 19,193 m0.0% 3,839 15.354 35.0% 5,374 T A . 29.25 80.0% 5,.48 23380 50.0% 11.690 SUgc 27,045 200% 21,63 5.410 10.0% U4l Total 17.605 Sav Floodi g S _pemnib T. Au 19.193 300.0% 0 19.39 35.0% 6.717 T. Am 2922 100.0% 0 29,22! 50.0% 14,613 SU Ma 27.0" 50.0% 133.24 3.524 10.0% ,352 TOUl 22,U2 ANNEX 8 Page 16 of 18 Table 8 BANGLADESH RIVER BANK PROTECTION PROJECT Tableb : Elpected Value of Crop Damage Caused by Regional Flooding Am TO 3.tap.. PralmhUey Expeted C_i A*etd Damage Da_me _awl RAwu edihed Damage D _ (M) (Thha Th00 YMm Th 000 Th0 Me md Y_ A. Foda dwe BRE D ei na S Jly 196 2.300 9,073 23.404 1.01 0.01 25.153 2f.1f3 July 399 34.100 9,073 309,3U4 6.67 0ls 46,413 71.36 AW 19t7 3S.00 13,339 40929 O.000 0.90 46,953 l18mit Se_ ebw 913 3t300 17,605 674,62 20.00 0." 33.713 132231 M _dinm 70.000 22.62 1,387.739 200.00 1.00 7,939 160Q170 B. Fl_.d a dw sMWW of DBed__p _11_- Jity 1916 1,000 9.073 9.073 1.01 0.03 3.9t3 I"3 July 1919 49.300 9.073 447.29 6.67 0.33 67.061 76.04 Avp 1967 40,100 13.339 33223 10.00 O.90 53,622 129,66 S_mbw 19U 71.100 17.403 1.21,706 20.00 o.9 62.585 192.2l 100,000 22,682 2;6ha21 200.00 1.00 11.341 20,392 ANNEX-8 Page 17 of 18 Table 9 BANGLADESH RIVER DANK PROTECTION PROJECT Table 9: Expected Value of Property and loinatcture Damap Csus.d by Rogooal Flooding Area Total Brahmnputra ProbabUity Ex ted Cuomulato Afhcted Damage Damage Flood Return of Flood Donage Danagp (ha) (Tk/ha) Tk 000 yenr Tk 000 Tk 001 Mooth and Year A. Flooding due to BRE Breach at Sarakandi July 1986 2,S00 185 S1B 1.01 0.01 513 513 July 1989 34,100 185 6,309 6.67 0.85 946 1,459 August 1987 35,200 185 6,512 10.00 0.90 651 2,110 September 1988 38,300 185 7,086 20.00 0.95 354 2,465 Maximnum 70,000 185 12,950 200.00 .99 130 2,594 B. Flooding due to Merger of Brahmaputra and Bangali July 1986 1,000 185 185 1.01 0.01 2 2 July 1989 49,300 185 9,121 6.67 0.85 7,752 7,754 August 1987 40,200 185 7,437 10.00 0.90 6,693 14,448 Septenber 1988 71,100 185 13,154 20.00 0.95 12.496 26,943 Maximum 100,000 18S 18,500 200.00 0.99 13,315 45,258 ANNEX 8 Paze 18 of 18 Table 10 DANGLADESH RIVER BANK PROTECTION PROJECT Tabb 10: Crop lucomne witb and without Projet Crop with Project %Cropped Area Total Area GrombMargin Regional Income B. Aus 2 3,965 2,704 10,721 T. Aus 3 5,217 9,597 50,067 T. Aus (HYV) 9 16488 17,017 287,386 B. Aus/Aman I 2,636 4,279 11,280 Jute 1 2,609 2,895 7,553 Broadcst Aman 2 3,103 2,846 U8,31 T. Aman(LIV) 33 61,676 8,643 533,075 T. Aman (HYV) 48 89,263 16,855 1,504,541 Boro (L) 0 0 11,480 0 Boro (HYV) 70 128,757 15,128 1,947,791 Whet 4 7,813 4,459 34,837 OilseeduPules 7 12,095 5,292 64,001 Potato 6 10,875 -2,553 -27,766 SugarCane 6 10,947 7,931 86,816 Vegetables/Chilies 6 10,599 11,728 124,309 TOTAL 198 366,443 118,300 4,643,443 Crop without Project % Cropped Area Tota Area Gross Margin Regional Income B. Aus 2 3,001 2,704 8,115 T. Aus 3 4,764 9,597 45,719 T. Aus (HYV) 9 15,512 17,017 263,970 B. Aus/Am nn 1 4,784 4,279 20,473 Jute 1 2,382 2,895 6,896 Broadcst Amuan 2 4,612 2,846 13,126 T. Aman (LIV) 33 62,400 8,643 539,333 T. Aman (HYV) 48 79,482 16,855 1,339,681 Boro (L) 0 0 11,480 0 Boro (HYV) 70 128,757 15,128 1,947,791 Whea 4 8,478 4,459 37,802 Oilseed/Putses 7 11.921 5;292 63,080 Potato 6 10,798 -2,553 -27,570 SugwCane 6 10,065 7,931 79,821 Vegetables/Chillies 6 10,731 11,728 125,857 TOTAL 198 357,687 1 1,300 4,464,095 ANNEX 9 Page 1 of 3 BANGLADESH RIVER BANK PROTECTION PROJECT Reportinz Reguirements 1. The following reports would be sent regularly to IDA: (A): River Bank Protection Proiect Component. This includes all activities in connection with: Implementation, O&M, Land Acquisition and Resettlement, Environmental Monitoring, BWDB RAC/Accounting Support, and BWDB Information Management. (a) six monthly reports within one month of the closing of the first and third quarters of each financial year. The report would include physical and financial progress and would follow the outlines given in para. 2 below; (b) quarterly progress reports on the contract management and supervision of the river bank protection works (to be prepared by the Engineer); (c) semi-annual progress reports on the BWDB Accounting upgrading component (to be prepared by the BWDB Director of Accounts with assistance from the accounting consultant); (d) semi-annual progress reports on the monitoring and maintenance activities of the O&M Unit (to be initially prepared by the maintenance support consultants during their assignment, and subsequently by the O&M Unit and PIU); (e) audited financial statement of the project, together with the auditor's report and opinion on the financial statement, and the auditor's separate opinion on SOEs, within nine months of the end of each fiscal year; and (f) the borrower's contribution (Section II) to the Project Completion Report, within three months of the Borrower's receipt of Sections I and III from IDA. (B): National Water Planninz Component. (a) six monthly reports within one month of the closing of the first and third quarters of each financial year. The report would include technical and financial progress and would follow the outlines given in para. 2 below; (b) quarterly progress reports on the technical assistance, comparing actual usage against targets given in the work plan. ANNEX 9 Page 2 of 3 (c) audited financial statement of the project, together with the auditor's report and opinion on the financial statement, and the auditor's separate opinion on SOEs, within nine months of the end of each fiscal year; and (d) the borrower's contribution (Section II) to the Project Completion Report prepared by, within three months of the Borrower's receipt of Sections I and III from IDA. 2. Scope of Reports. The six monthly reports, together with the quarterly and respective semi-annual reports, should provide sufficient information for the use of IDA supervision missions tentatively scheduled for June and December of each financial year. The outline suggested for the monthly report would include (the contents of reports for the national water planning component would be modified as appropriate): (a) The Executive Summary; (b) Physical Progress. This chapter would contain information on all components: major and minor civil works, land acquisition and resettlement, and O&M support activities (including procurement), and the BWDB accounting improvement component. The achievements expected each year are detailed in the performance indicators given in Annex 7. The report would also include a brief discussion on progress of each component. Attachments to the report would include tabulation of the physical progress of all project components.(Annex 6). Tabulations would include: achievements up to the previous reporting period and achieved in the current reporting period; concise information on the major and minor civil works contracts updated schedules for procurement of computers, vehicles and equipment and implementation; (c) Technical Assistance. This chapter should include tabulations of the staff complement of consultants during the reporting period, cumulative inputs and unused residual inputs for each technical assistance components; (d) Training. This chapter would report on the training of BWDB staff by the implementation and maintenance support consultants respectively, and by contractors, and training conducted for WARPO staff, (e) BWDB Accounting Improvements. This chapter would contain information on institutional building technical assistance (accounting consultants and trainers, procurement of computers and furniture for RACs, preparation of training materials; (f) Financial Progress. This chapter would include: (i) expenditures (targets and achievements) incurred according to the items of disbursement listed in paras 2.41-2.44 of the SAR and, in addition, for those items financed by GOB (ii) a forecast on cost over- run/savings when appropriate; and (iii) status of reimbursement applications; (g) Problems. This chapter should include: (i) problems identified during the previous reporting period, actions taken to resolve the problems and results; and (ii) problems identified during the reporting period and proposed actions; (h) Attachments ANNEX 9 Page 3 of 3 3. Additional Reports for the National Water Plannin! Component. The main technical reports and their contents expected from this component are outlined in Annex 8 paras 17-20, and its Attachments A and B. In addition, WARPO, assisted by its international consultants, will produce: (a) A Project Inception Report which will contain, inter alia, a detailed work plan to be prepared by WARPO within three months of the mobilization of the expatriate consultants; (b) An Interim Report 18 months after mobilization of the consultants describing the technical progress made, conclusions reached and recommended amendments to the initial work plan; (c) A portfolio of Medium-Term Water Sector Projects by June 1998; (d) A Draft of the National Water Management Plan by June 1998, the final Plan by June 1999. (e) A Long-Term Water Strategy document by March 1999; and (f) A portfolio of Long-Term Water Sector Projects by December 1999. The relationship of these report outputs to other national water planning activities is shown in Annex 7. ANNEX 10 Table 1 BANGLADESH RIVER BANK PROTECTION PROJECT PROJECT SUPERVISION SCHEDULE AND MONITORING INDICATORS 1. Proiect SuDervision Plans Mission Specialty Total N o._ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Eng. WRP TI Pro. RT.E. Staff Weeks 1/96 1 1 1 1 4 8 6/96 1 - 1 - - 2 4 12/96 1 - 1 1 1 4 8 6/97 1 1 - 2 4 11/97* 1 - 1 1 3 6 6/98 1 1 - 2 4 12/98 1 - 1 1 3 6 6/99 1 1 - 2 4 11/99* 1 - - 1 2 4 6/00 1 1 1 - 3 6 1 1/00** 1 1 2 4 TOTAL 11 6 6 2 3 28 58 X__ -I- _ _ __ (62)" Each supervision mission would last 2 weeks and each mission member would have a 2 week assignment. Notes: * Implementation Reviews ** Initiation of Implementation Completion Report Eng. Engineer WRP Water Resources Planner TI Training/Institution Specialist Pro. Procurement Specialist R.T.E. River Training Expert at An additional 4 staff weeks of miscellaneous expertise should be included and deployed as necessary. ANNEX 11 Page 1 of 3 BANGLADESH RIVER BANK PROTECTION PROJECT Proiect Coordination and Civil Works Manasement Duties The Proiects Works Director 1. The Project Works Director's responsibilities and duties would include: a) serving as a liaison between the civil works contractors and BWDB, and conveying the Board's decisions on contractual matters to them through the Engineer; b) contracting with the project consultants and administering their contracts (including timely submission for progress requests); c) serving as the Engineer's interlocutor with the BWDB and ensuring that the Engineer discharges his duties faithfully as per his consultancy agreement for implementation of technical assistance; d) monitoring the timeliness and progress of land acquisition by field offices and the progress of Resettlement Plan implementation by the Resettlement Unit of BWDB's Land and Water Directorate; e) contracting with NGOs to assist in the implementation of the Resettlement Plan (when necessary); f) overseeing the preparation of NCB bidding documents for the BRE retirement sub-component of the Sariakandi/Mathurapara protection works; g) arranging for BWDB review and approval of any design changes submitted by the Engineer; h) reviewing and approving payment and other contractual certificates certified by the Engineer; i) coordinating BWDB's review of the Engineer's proposals for variations, extensions of time, settlement of financial claims and other contractual matters requiring BWDB's prior clearance and approval; j) preparing agendas for periodic meetings of the civil works disputes review boards and maintaining regular correspondence with such their chairmen; k) reviewing the Engineer's progress reports and monitoring their timely submission; I) assisting BWDB's Bogra Circle office in planning and implementing the minor civil works component for Sariakandi/Mathurapara and monitoring its implementation; and m) ensuring that the project Director is represented at District Coordinating Committee meetings ANNEX 11 Page 2 of 3 n) arranging and overseeing procurement of vehicles and equipment for the O&M Unit, and for the projectes accounting improvement cornponent; and o) facilitation and monitoring the transfer of O&M Unit core staff receiving initial training by civil works contractors. The Proiect Coordinator 2. The Project Coordinator's duties would include: a) ensuring timely submission of disbursement requests to IDA; b) preparing consolidated reports on project progress for submission to IDA (Annex 9) and coordination of the activities of project supervision missions (Annex 10); c) facilitation of timely presentation to BWDB of all civil works contract decision and issues prepared by the Project Director (para 3.2); d) assist the Project Director in coordinating and organizing periodic meetings of the Dispute Review Board for civil works contracts; The Enuineer 3. The Engineer's overall supervision duties would include: (a) specifying and supervising surveys and investigations during the period between award of the two contracts and the start of the main construction season in order to obtain the baseline data for subsequent impact monitoring during construction and the current morphological infonnation required for finalization of the layout of the works; (b) preparing updated designs to suit the actual site morphology and bed bathymetry at the end of the monsoon season imnumiately preceding the start of the main construction period; (c) responding to contractor's queries on design and material specification matters; (d) preparing documentation for variations, extensions of time, utilization of Provisional Sums, and any other management decisions requiring the prior approval of BWDB; (e) keeping BWDB informed on progress, the early identification of difficulties and bottlenecks, and advising BWDB on appropriate action to minimize the likelihood of delays and situations that could lead to the submission of financial claims by contractors; (f) advising BWDB on contractual issues, contractors' requests for extension of time and evaluation of financial claims; ANNEX 11 Page 3 of 3 (g) carrying out quality assurance audits, issuing of all certificates specified in the contracts, and certification of contractors' invoices for payment; and (h) preparation of monthly and quarterly progress reports. Chief Resident Enzineers 4. The principal site supervision duties of each Chief Resident Engineer would include: (a) monitoring the contractor's compliance with contract terms, conditions and specifications (including provisions for environmental impact mitigation during construction); (b) monitoring the contractor's compliance with the agreed Method Statements, Work Program and Quality Plan, setting out of works, preparation of foundations, etc.; (c) monitoring the quality of materials and compliance with construction tolerances, including the supervision of surveys and tests for quality audit purposes; (d) checking the quantity of work completed and included in the contractor's submissions for interim payments; (e) checking contractors' method statements and proposals for temporary works, referral of these to the Engineer for approval and monitoring compliance with these statements; (f) preparation of "as built" record drawings; (g) progress monitoring, forecasting of bottlenecks and exploring means of addressing them within contractual provisions; and (h) responding to emergency situations as they arise. ANNEX 12 Page I of 2 BANGLADESH RIVER BANK PROTECTION PROJECT Selected Documents in the Project File 1. Extensive use was made of reports published by the River Training Studies of the Brahniaputra River (BRTS) funded under Cr. 1870-BD. The studies were prepared for BWDB by Messrs. Sir Williarn Halcrow and Partners in association with Danish Hydraulic Institute, Engineering and Planning consultants Ltd., and Design Innovations Group. Relevant consultant's reports in the Project File are: (a) BRTS: "Report on Priority Works", October 1991. (b) BRTS: "Second Interim Report", December 1991. (c) Brahniaputra Right Bank Priority Works: "provisions for Operations and Maintenance", June 1992. (d) Brahmaputra Right Bank Priority Works: "Environmental Inpact Assessment", July 1992. (e) Brahmaputra Right Bank Priority Works: "Design and Construction Managment Report", August 1992. (f) Brahmaputra Right Bank Priority Works: "Resettlement Plans", December 1992 (revised June 1993 and April 1995). (g) BRTS: "Detailed Report on Model Studies of Revetment Structures", January 1993. (h) BRTS: "Final Report on Physical Model Studies of Revetment Structures", January 1993. (i) BRTS: "Report on Model Studies", Novemnber 1992. (j) BRTS: "Draft Final Report", January 1993. (k) BRTS: "Master Plan Report", May 1993. (1) Brahmaputra Right Bank Priority Works: "Prequalification Document", May 1993. (m) Brahnmaputra Right Bank Priority Works: "Tender Documents", June 1993. 2. The following documents were prepared for IDA's use and are included in the Project File: ANNE 12 Page 2 of 2 (a) Danish Hydraulic Institute - Surface Water Modeling Centre: "Breakthrough to the Bangali River at Mathurapara-Mathematical Model Investigations", Dhaka, May 1993. (b) Brahmaputra Right Bank Priority Works" "Engineer's Estimate", April 1995. (c) Brahlnaputra Right Bank Priority Works: "Review of Cost Estimates", March 1993. (d) Sir William Halcrow and Partners: "Cost Estimate Calculations for Priority Works: loose leaf folder compiled April 1993. ANNEX 13 Page 1 of 16 BANGLADESH RIVER BANK PROTECTION PROJECT NATIONAL WATER PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT Evolution of the Government's Sector Strateav 1. Background. The 1964 Water Master Plan' proposed a major program of investments to control Bangladesh's rivers and develop large-scale flood control and drainage (FCD) and surface irrigation projects. In contrast, the Bank's 1972 Land and Water Resources Sector Study2 downplayed major FCD and surface irrigation, instead recommending that emphasis be given to public investment in minor irrigation (low-lift pumps and deep tubewvells) and small scale FCD projects. This approach set the agenda for IDA's long-term strategy in the sector and in practice has also helped define the Government's sectoral development strategy. Moreover, when it became clear in the early 1980s that inefficient public policies and institutions were hampering the achievement of the full potential of the minor irrigation and fertilizer technologies, GOB introduced policy reformns that led to the privatization of irrigation equipment and fertilizer supply. These reforms, together with the advent of cheaper shallow tubewell technologies, facilitated a subsequent rapid increase in dry season rice production and led to the attainment of virtual rice self-sufficiency in the early 1990s. Even so, the debate between those who advocate emphasis on large scale structural investments for flood control and irrigation, and those wvho emphasize minor irrigation, small-scale FCD and non-structural interventions has continued to this day (see below). 2. National Water Planning. In 1983, a UNDP-supported national water planning exercise was initiated with the creation of a new agencv, the Master Planning Organization (MPO), and the recruitment of consultants. IDA was the executing agency in supervising the studies but did not determine their outcome. The Phase I report which was completed in 1986 confirmed the continuing role of private sector minor irrigation in meeting the projected medium-term demand for foodgrains; greatly increased the understanding of the potential of groundwater; and contributed significantly to the development of improved data bases, planning methodologies and resource evaluation techniques. For the longer term, the 1986 report envisaged that major public sector investments in flood control and surface irrigation would ultimately become necessary. This was given more immediate emphasis in the 1991 Phase 1I Report which recommended an ambitious US$4.2 billion 20-year program for construction of FCD projects to increase monsoon rice production and complement minor irrigation development. 3. In essence, the 1991 project portfolio contained very few new projects, but recommended that studies be completed by 2005 for the detailed design and implementation of the Ganges and Brahmaputra Barrage irrigation projects which had originally been proposed in the 1964 Water Government of East Pakistan/International Engineering Company, Aaster Plan for Water and Power Resources Development, 1964. 2 World Bank, Land and Water Resources Sector Study-- Bangladesh, Report No. PS-13, Asia Projects Department, December 1, 1972. ANNEX 13 Page 2 of 16 Master Plan. However, in making these recommendations, the report gave inadequate attention to a number of important issues, in particular: (a) institutional and implementation capacity constraints; (b) the potential adverse effects of FCD and river barrage projects on fisheries and the environment; (c) the efficacy of major surface irrigation projects, especially in areas irrigable by private minor irrigation; and (d) the dwindling dry season flows of some major trans-boundary rivers notably the Ganges. With the submission of the Phase II report, the temporary MPO was transformed into a permanent Water Resources Planning Organization (WARPO) in March 1992, and UNDP assistance for national water planning ceased. 4. The Flood Action Program. The NWP proposals were, however overshadowed by the impact of the 1987 and 1988 floods which attracted worldwide attention and gave rise to a major controversy concerning the role of major embankments and FCD projects. A number of reports were prepared, ranging from those that advocated the full embankment of the major rivers to those that recommended more cautious approaches. At the request of GOB and the major donors, the World Bank therefore agreed to coordinate the efforts of the Government and donors in preparing the Flood Action Plan (FAP), a complex and ambitious program of studies and pilot projects designed to investigate, over a five-year period at a cost of US$150 million, alternative approaches to dealing with the flood problem. 5. A new temporary agency, the Flood Plan Coordination Organization (FPCO), was created to implement and administer the FAP and the World Bank agreed to coordinate donor support for FAP studies and international and local Panels of Experts. The Bank's role as coordinator enabled it to provide guidance on design of the various studies, to establish common standards for the studies in such fields as environmental impacts and people's participation, and establish procedures for the examination of proposals. However, the role of coordinator does not provide control over the final output of the studies. FAP comprises eleven major components (five regional planning studies; four studies focusing on specific programs -- the Brahmaputra Right Bank Embankment, the Coastal Embankment, Dhaka Urban Protection, Secondary Cities Protection; two studies focusing on non-structural programs -- flood forecasting and flood preparedness; and sixteen supporting studies and pilot activities). This program of studies and pilot projects is now approaching completion and a draft final report has been prepared by FPCO. 6. During the course of its implementation, many of the FAP activities broadened their focus and there have been a number of notable achievements including preparation of guidelines for project preparation, environmental assessment and stakeholder participation; improved understanding of the performance of FCD projects and their impact on fisheries and the environment in general; development of important new technologies including GIS and systems modeling; and investigation of alternative approaches to controlled flood management (compartmentalization) and river training. 7. Despite the progress made under the FAP, much remains to be done. Not only are there a number of activities which remain incomplete but it is necessary to bring together the FAP studies to a common basis within a consistent national framework. GOB proposes the integration of the FAP results into the National Water Plan, but as indicated above (para 2), the NWP was itself in some respects deficient. Not only has the FAP greatly added to the information and analytical base, but it has also led to innovative approaches to water resources and environmental ANNEX 13 Page 3 of 16 management. What is needed therefore is a full reiteration of the national planning effort which does justice to what has been achieved while evolving a comprehensive long-term plan for land and water development consistent with national objects. 8. A recent Government paper Bangladesh Water and Flood Management Strategy (March 1995) has set out a five-year transitional program to complete such an exercise and to implement the necessary supporting institutional reforms. Government's short-term strategy (1996-2000) has been developed around the need to fully integrating the existing body of knowledge and take up priority measures for addressing imminent flood and other water resource problems. The focus of the short-term strategy will be: (a) a National Water Management Plan (NWMP) using the knowledge base of the National Water Plan, FAP, lessons learned from previous FCD/I projects, groundwater development, and urban and sectoral water need projections; (b) enhancing institutional capacity, for undertaking upcoming programs, through development of necessary legislation, policy, organization, professional expertise, training, and other necessary infrastructure. (c) establishing economic, social and environmental norms and environmental quality standards to regulate agricultural, industrial, navigational, municipal and domestic water use; (d) instituting plans for operation and maintenance and creating an appropriate institutional framework for expanded beneficiary participation in the planning, implementation, operation, and maintenance of water management infrastructure and facilities, (e) speedy completion of incomplete projects to achieve stipulated targets in the shortest possible time; and, (f) implementing a portfolio of essential projects and programs (e.g. flood warning, disaster management, information dissemination, river training, Thana drainage, protection of urban, commercial, industrial and public utility centers), that meet very specific criteria, including appropriate analysis with social costs and accounting of externalities and linkages. Key to the development and implementation of the short-term strategy is organizational restructuring of the main water sector institutions. Institutional Reform 9. In order to develop a continuing capacity for policy formulation and water resources planning, GOB is considering alternative institutional reforms which inter alia are expected to create an effective policy and planning agency in the Ministry of Water Resources. This will consolidate the functions of the existing WARPO with those of the FPCO so as to establish a ANNEX 13 Page 4 of 16 unified organization with a capacity to meet the evolving requirements for water resources planning in Bangladesh. One of the first functions of the new organization will be to undertake the preparation of the proposed National Water Management Plan (NWMP) with the support of national and international consultants. It is recognized that an enormous effort has gone into national water planning in the context of both the NWP and FAP and that this has so far yet to produce a satisfactory outcome. Nevertheless, the water sector is critical to the future of Bangladesh. Without continued support, there is a real danger that what has been achieved will be lost and that development will proceed in an unsatisfactory and piecemeal fashion which does not address Bangladesh's development priorities. 10. Reforming and enlarging the role of WARPO to become the apex national water planning institution will involve five tasks: (a) A Review of water sector responsibilities and institutional mandates. (b) Agreement on the division of responsibilities between WARPO and BWDB. (c) Enabling legislation to give WARPO the apex water sector planning role, and complementary legislation to confine BWDB's role to project implementation and planning. (d) Review and modification of WARPO's institutional structure to enable it to absorb FPCO and broaden its multi-disciplinary planning capability, particularly for environmental management and participatory planning. (e) Implementation of the reform program for WARPO. 11. It is expected that GOB will schedule these tasks over the period September 1995-January 1996. Two key events which Nvill set the scene for achievement of the above tasks will be (a) approval of the Bangladesh Water and Flood Management Strategy scheduled for Cabinet review in August, 1995, and (b) an international conference on the FAP recommendations scheduled for mid-September 1995. It is expected that a clear sense of direction for national water planning will emerge from these two key events, and much of the groundwork on tasks 1 and 2 will be completed. 12. An immediate task wvill be to make preparations to merge FPCO into WARPO and provide technical assistance to substantially strengthen WARPO's multi-disciplinary planning capability. In the period to December 1995, institutional restructuring, reforms, strengthening and development will concentrate initially on WARPO (with FPCO), in its overall planning and data base role, and continue on BWDB in its project preparation, design and implementation role. The recently initiated organizational reforms of BWDB agreed between GOB and IDA in August 1994 is the forerunner of strengthening and development programs, which will in the first instance focus on improved O&M of existing projects, better management of implementation, and transparency in the accounting system. The 1996-2000 program will see a significant shift to the multi- disciplinary approach need for comprehensive water management and the increasing importance of environmental management. The institutional framework is expected to ensure effective multi- ANNEX 13 Page 5 of 16 sectoral participation at all stages of water sector development from broad planning right down to O&M in the field. Institutional developmcnt programs during 1996-2000 will also cover the growing role of the private sector. The rest of the projects and programs are subject to further preparation, either by desk, ficld or pilot study. Social, environmental and institutional programs will have a high priority, particularly the institutional development program without which there will be very little effective development of water management and planning. Preparing NWMP 13. After the merger of FPCO into WARPO in January 1996, the GOB proposes to appoint consultants to assist WARPO in developing enhanced capability to undertake overall planning and NWMP preparation. The planning exercise would be carried under rigorous and transparent arrangements. A technical review of the NWMP by a panel of experts (national and international) will be carried out. NWMP should be seen as a rolling plan to be reviewved and updated every five years. It would provide a firm plan for the next five years, an indicative plan for the subsequent five years and a perspective plan for the long term. This way the plan would be sufficiently flexible to accommodate changes in the socio-economic environment and technological advances, while maintaining its direction. 14. WARPO's main planning task after 2000 will be reviewing and updating of the first NWMP. The frequency at which the rolling plan will need to be updated is not known, but five years can be assumed to be the maximum interval. With effective monitoring, a good data base, new information technology and modem evaluation and planning techniques, WARPO should have no difficulty in reviewing water sector performance and updating NWMP whenever required. Socio-political and economic realities are likely to change in the future and technological advances may alter the present thinking on agriculture, fisheries, river and environmental management. However, the framework set in the short-term (1996-2000) will provide a basis for the future. The key task of WARPO is to keep on updating criteria and water sector planning so as to cope with the inevitable structural changes in the Bangladesh economy. 15. Water sector projects and programs beyond 2000 will have been determined through the comprehensive NWMP process. This will involve careful application of updated FAP criteria and guidelines. Social, environmental and institutional provisions will have been built-in to produce a new generation of projects, which are formnulated through people's participation, are locally acceptable and environmentally sustainable. Structural projects would probably fall into similar categories as in the short-run, but there wvould be changes in emphasis. River bank erosion protection and river training projects would be the first steps in a program aimed at longer-term river management. New water and flood management projects would be introduced if they are technically, economically, socially, environmentally and institutionally justified. 16. Three main sets of considerations will govern proposals for the preparation of a National Water Management Plan (NWMP): (a) It should look forward to what Bangladesh's society and economy must look like in future rather than back to the concerns of the past. This will require designing water resources policies, programs and projects to help promote structural change ANNEX 13 Page6of 16 in the national economy. Given the long-term nature of many water resources programs, and the extended patterns of urban and industrial growth, the NWMP should have a perspective which looks forward well into the next century. Moreover, it should be truly multi-disciplinary and multi-sectoral. A break must be made with planning studies which focus predominantly on the agricultural sector. It is true that Bangladesh's population is largely rural, and poverty is concentrated in rural areas. But Bangladesh can only break out of its stagnant growth path if there is a sharp increase in investment and an acceleration in industrial development. Given the potential for private groundwater development and for increased yields, the agricultural sector can still continue to grow. Indeed, accelerated overall growth will itself lead to increasing per capita demand not only for rice but also for other diversified agricultural crops, and will hence provide further stimulus to the agricultural sector. (b) It must be more realistic about the prospects for institutional and implementation capacity than in the past. Public responsibilities in water are inherently more extensive than in most other sectors and everything possible should be done to strengthen institutional capacity. But systemic problems affect public administration in Bangladesh, and there are no particular reasons why performance in water should be significantly better than in other areas. Participatory approaches and decentralization may have a role and private initiative should be promoted where feasible (e.g. in exploiting groundwater and perhaps in investing in major water projects). But, even so, no more than a gradual improvement in overall performance can be expected. In evaluating future programs, realistic assumptions with respect to implementation and management capacity are essential. (c) Preparation of the NWMP should be seen as an iterative consultative process. It should be designed to fashion a long-term planning framework compatible with national goals and objectives and with sound environmental management principles. Consultations should be structured, in close cooperation with the counterpart agency and subject to the ultimate directives of the Government, so as to involve all the major stakeholders in the review process. At each stage of this consultative process, alternatives should be presented and analyzed for discussion purposes, with all the important evaluation and decision factors displayed so as to allow an objective evaluation of the preferred course of action compared to other feasible alternatives. The aim will be to develop a flexible planning system capable of continuous evolution rather than to present a rigid blueprint. It is anticipated that the NWMP will be subsequently updated on a regular basis, possibly every five years. ANNEX 13 Page 7 of 16 Objectives 17. The primary objective of the proposed National Water Management Plan would be to contribute to rational economic development of the country's water resources while protecting the natural environment and improving the quality of life of the citizens of Bangladesh. To this end, the proposed project would aim to: (a) Consolidate past data collection activities and develop a coherent and sustainable data base on water resources and associated land resources; (b) Consolidatc past and on-going approaches to the analysis of water resources issues and, to the extent necessary, develop additional complementary analytical tools for the evaluation of water resources issues on a sustainable basis; (c) Bring the five FAP regional studies, together with other past and on-going sub- regional and regional studies, onto a common basis suitable as building blocks for the preparation of the NWMP; (d) Integrate the results of past studies with those of the earlier NWP reports, with a view to consolidating those aspects of value in the preparation of the NWMP; (e) Integrate the results of FAP supporting studies, investigations and pilot programs, together with any other similar past and on-going activities, with a view to consolidating those aspects of value in the preparation of the NWMP; (f) Prepare a National Water Management Plan which responds to the evolving requirements of national society and economy; and (g) Help establish and strengthen the institutional capacity for on-going water resources planning and policy formulation. The broad scope of work required to achieve these objectives, reflecting the conclusions and considerations set out above, is provided in Attachment A. The overall schedule for the national water planning component is given in Attachment B, and detailed cost estimates of the planning effort are given in Attachment C. Study Phasing 18. It is suggested that the NWMP studies would fall into three overlapping phases. During Phase 1, the existing position would be fully documented and assessed, and a detailed schedule for implementing the study program would be prepared. During Phase 2, national goals and objectives would be evaluated; a consensus would be reached on the development, policy and institutional framework; and broad water resources management options would be discussed and evaluated. Phase 3 would comprise the formulation of the National Water Management Plan and its component parts. ANNEX 13 Page 8of 16 19. While the three phases of the study provide a natural division of the study period, the components of each would be overlapping and iterative. Within three months from mobilization of the consultants, it is envisaged that an Inception Report would be prepared, presenting the main conclusions of the review of existing reports, data and analytical techniques, and setting out a detailed work program for the entire study period. Within six months of receiving GOB's formal acceptance of the Inception Report, it is envisaged that a draft "Options Report" would be prepared for iterative revicev and discussion with GOB and other major stakeholders. Within 15 months of receiving clearance of the "Options Report", the final report would be submitted providing the draft National Water Management Plan. 20. It is expected that the overall study period would be three years allowing two months for the review of the Inception Report, and 15 months for the iterative review of the "Options Report". Preparation of the NWMP itself would, however, be initiated in parallel with the discussions of the "Options Report". A further program of review and discussion would follow submission of the final draft National Water Management Plan. Working papers, interim recommendations and other reports will be submitted as appropriate on each of the major activities identified. ANNEX 13 Page 9 of 16 Attachment A SCOPE OF WORK The NWMP studies are expected to fall into three overlapping phases. During Phase 1 the existing position will be fully documented and assessed, and a detailed schedule for implementing the study program would be prepared. During Phase 2, national goals and objectives will be evaluated and a consensus will be reached on the development, policy and institutional framework, and broad water resources management options will be discussed and evaluated. Phase 3 will comprise the formulation and review of the National Water Management Plan and its component parts. The activities to be carried out during the three phases will include, but will not necessarily be limited to, the following: Phase 1. Assessment of the Present Position and Submission of Detailed Study Proposals (i) Document, review and examine all the available reports and data relevant to the comprehensive planning of Bangladesh's water and associated land resources, and provide a coherent summary of past institutional, development and related proposals; (ii) Document, review and evaluate systems of data collection, processing and analysis relevant to the comprehensive planning of Bangladesh's water and associated land resources; (iii) Document, review and evaluate the analytical methods in use or under development, including both those concerning the simulation and analysis of different aspects of the physical system, and those concerning the evaluation and optimization of development proposals; (iv) Describe the strengths and weaknesses in the existing reporting, data, and analytical, and identify any major gaps, inconsistencies and shortcomings; and (v) Prepare an inception report describing in detail the proposed planning approach together with a detailed work program for the full study period. Phase 2. Identification of Water Resources Management Options (i) Document and assess national social and economic goals and objectives relevant to the formulation of water resource management options and to the preparation of a NWMP; ANNEX 13 Page 10 of 16 Attachment A (ii) Describe the major driving forces that will help determine future development trends and prospects, and evaluate their relative importance and the extent or otherwise to which they can be managed to meet national goals and objectives; (iii) Develop indicative population, settlement and economic projections for the Bangladesh economy in short (5 year), medium (10-15 year ) and long (30-50 year) terms, and present alternative perspectives of overall development prospects and issues, on both a national and a regional basis; (iv) Describe and evaluate major water resource management issues, including but not necessarily limited to issues associated with: floods and inundation in urban, rural and coastal areas; water supply (surface and subsurface) and demand (for agricultural, industrial, domestic, environmental and other purposes) and the future water balance; in-stream uses (fisheries, navigation, hydropower and other uses), their requirements and the constraints they impose on water management; water quality, pollution (point and non-point) and sanitation services; salinity intrusion and protection of the natural environment; and international rivers and their particular characteristics and constraints; (v) Document and evaluate information on past performance of water resources programs and projects in the public, cooperative and private sectors, determining factors of relevance to the assessment of the selection and design of future programs and projects, and setting out a clear view of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats associated with alternative types of water resource management intervention; (vi) Document and evaluate information on the institutional framework for water, including the legal regulatory systems; organizational and agency functions and responsibilities for managing the water and associated land resources; organizational and agency functions and responsibilities for the delivery of water services; and the respective roles of the public, cooperative and private sectors; and identify options and scenarios related to the strengthening and/or reform of the overall legal, regulatory and organizational framework; (vii) Taking into account on-going programs and projects, as well as those identified in earlier studies, identify medium and long-term water resource management options, including but not necessarily being limited to those related to preventive interventions (flood control, drainage improvements etc.); water development interventions (inter-regional water transfers, surface and sub-surface water resource utilization etc.); interventions in the management of water quality (sanitation, pollution control, salinity control etc.); and interventions for the protection of the natural environment (ecological systems, habitats, etc.); together ANNEX 13 Page 11 of 16 Attachment A with measures to support the implementation, real-time management and O&M of development programs and projects; (viii) Document and evaluate alternative water management policy measures and approaches with a view to identifying options which would complement supply management and water control interventions so as to lead to a balanced and sustainable development of water and associated land resources, including but not necessarily being limited to regulatory, financial, cost recovery and other demand management approaches; (ix) Evaluate possible impacts of the full range of identified options on national development prospects, and on the environment and resources setting, through the use of appropriate analytical and modeling techniques, the aim being to quantify and display important evaluation and decision factors so that an objective evaluation is seen to have been made of any recommended course of action compared to other feasible alternatives; (x) Develop a program of consultations and review in cooperation with the Government and other important stakeholders with a view to reaching broad consensus on the components to be included in the NWMP; and (xi) Prepare a report summarizing the conclusions of the options studies; presenting the results of the consultation process; and providing a draft outline NWMP. Phase 3. Formulation of the National Water Management Plan (i) Assess Bangladesh's water and land resources, and their medium and long-term potential and constraints, evaluating the risks associated with cyclonic events, annual and seasonal variability in river flows, long-term trends in the flows in the border rivers, salinity intrusion, pollution, and other factors of major significance; (ii) Propose medium term and long term criteria for the preservation, allocation and utilization of Bangladesh's water and associated land resources which would serve the long-term requirements of Bangladesh's society and economy, and specify the level of risks that can reasonably, or which will have to be, incurred by different populations and users; (iii) Recommend a comprehensive and coherent data collection, processing and analysis system relevant to the planning and management of Bangladesh's water and associated land resources, specifying those elements of the system to be centralized and those to be dispersed amongst different agencies, together with arrangements for ensuring access and consistency amongst different sources; ANNEX 13 Page 12 of 16 Attachment A (iv) Develop and introduce an analytical framework to allow the systematic evaluation and assessment of water resources management options within the broader multi-sectoral resources allocation context. Such a framework should seek to link analyses of the physical system with those of development and management options so as to meet the needs of sustainable development and protection of the natural environment, specifying how far analytical capacity is to be centralized and how far it is be dispersed amongst different agencies, together with arrangements for ensuring access and consistency amnongst different activities; (v) Based on a systematic evaluation of the identified water resources management options, and taking into account the results of the consultative process, formulate a comprehensive long-term water management plan which responds to national goals and objectives, and scheduled according to appropriate time periods. The proposed plan should provide for regional balance, subject to the requirements of overall economic and social development and to protecting the natural environment. It should be specified in relative detail over the medium tern, and in outline terms over the longer term. Where there are major unknowns and/or risks, these should be described together with measures for resolving such uncertainties over specified time periods; (vi) Consistent with the long-term water resources management plan, prepare a long-term investment portfolio phased according to GOB's norrnal planning periods. Such a portfolio should inter alia include, the location, outline designs and alignments of major works, orders-of-magnitude costs (by domestic and foreign components), annual operation and maintenance requirements and economic justification for each other major projects and the annualized investments for the entire plan; (vii) Identify priority, near-term water management programs and projects for implementation during the first five year period, and propose a detailed feasibility, design and construction schedule; (viii) Together with the Surface Water Simulation Modeling Center (SWMC) or its successor agency, analyze the impact of the proposed plan in the medium and longer-terms on river levels and other relevant quantities with a view to checking the consistency of the overall physical impacts; (ix) Make recommendations to strengthen and--to the extent necessary-reform institutional capacities in support of the implementation of the proposed NWMP, including the proposals for any further reviews necessary of the legislative, regulatory and organizational framework in support of water resources management; ANNEX 13 Page 13 of 16 Attachment A (x) Recommend measures designed to strengthen the implementation, real- time management and subsequent O&M of completed systems, reflecting the knowvn constraints and performance problems associated with water resources management interventions in Bangladesh; (xi) Recommend complementary regulatory, financial, cost recovery and related demand management policies designed to ensure the balanced and sustainable development of water and associated land resources; and (xii) Design a monitoring and evaluation system to facilitate the sustained monitoring of the changes in the national resources and environmental setting; provide for an efficient information management system to record program impacts and performance; and allow feed-back of performance results into the decision making and planning system. ANNEX 13 Page 14 of 16 Attachment B STUDY SCHEDULE AND OUTPUTS While the three phases of the study provide a natural division of the study period, the components of each would be overlapping and iterative. Subject to these considerations, the Consultants will: (i) Within six months from mobilization, submit an Inception Report presenting the main conclusions of the review of existing reports, data and analytical techniques, and setting out a detailed work program for the entire study period; (ii) Within six months of receiving GOB's formal acceptance of the Inception Report, prepare a draft "Options" report for iterative review and discussion with GOB and other major stakeholders; and (iii) Within twelve months of receiving clearance of the "Options" report, submit a final report providing the proposed draft National Water Management Plan. It is expected that the overall study period will be three years. allowing two months for the review of the Inception Report; and twelve months for the iterative review of the Options Paper. A further program of review and discussion will follow submission of the final draft National Water Management Plan. Involvement of the Consultants in this program is expected to be the subject of a subsequent contract. The consultants will be expected to schedule their work program over the full three year period to reflect these major stages in the implementation of the study while ensuring that all the various activities included are adequately undertaken. Working papers, interim recommendations and other reports will be submitted as appropriate on each of the major activities identified. 40 bumoM OtO^l fXCq -2:> =glv O~~ ~~ a^03 . 6 0< 2:. * O 2 % .....f.fm.Oinfo... 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'h, o: , s fh, VP _.-, th pw * Ti|/.i ~~~,yfhoar>-3;r, Ig IV j0 v.. 0- 1-ft20 anyebndo,s.me,to. oc,epIarcs tonf - 2Such 'l l)sA 89-00. 891301 90 30' 11/6/1995 ffwqTF j2i ip p3 s 3 r h f I MAG I NG Report No: 15090 BD Type: SAR