For Official Use Only CLR Review Independent Evaluation Group 1. CAS/CPS Data Country: Republic of Cameroon CAS/CPS Period: FY10 – FY14 CAS/CPS Year: FY10 (originally FY10-FY13) CLR Period: FY10 – FY14 Date of this review: March 15, 2017 2. Ratings CLR Rating IEG Rating Development Outcome: Moderately Unsatisfactory1 Unsatisfactory WBG Performance: Fair Fair 3. Executive Summary i. Cameroon is a lower middle income, resource-rich country with large potential. Due to its location, the country is the gateway to the economies of Central Africa and plays a central role in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC). The government has had a weak record with respect to implementing reforms. Its latest overall CPIA score is 3.1 (compared to the average IDA-eligible Sub-Saharan African countries of 3.2). Governance has posed a major challenge to the country’s economic potential, and most of its CPIA scores for public sector management and institutions are below the African averages. Lately security has also become an important issue, with Boko Haram being active in the northern regions of the country. The economy remains predominantly rural and informal, but with rapid urbanization. The annual GDP growth rate averaged 5.1 percent during the period of the Country Assistance Strategy (CAS, FY10-14) and improved to almost 6 percent in 2015-2016, but poverty rates have remained essentially unaltered since 2001 (38 percent below the national poverty line in 2014), and most MDGs have not been achieved. Inequality has increased, with disparity between regions becoming increasingly pronounced. This constitutes a potential driver of fragility and conflict, particularly in the northern regions also affected by the Boko Haram. Poverty incidence is much lower in urban than in rural areas, and 90 percent of all poor people live in rural areas. The business environment improved during the period of the CAS but remains a key obstacle for economic diversification, while educational quality has been eroding, and health outcomes are generally similar to those of lower- income countries despite high levels of spending. ii. The Bank’s strategy was well aligned with country challenges and the government’s own objectives, with the emphasis of the CAS program on governance, competitiveness, and public sector services. The program generally did address key challenges for the country, and was largely unchanged in the CAS Progress Report (CASPR), at which time the CAS period was extended to include FY14, but some indicators were dropped and others were weakened primarily 1 The CLR rated the development outcome as Fair (see para 2 of the CLR), which is a four- point scale used for rating WBG performance instead of the six- point scale for rating development outcome. Additional information from the Region indicated that the DO rating of Fair was equivalent to Moderately Unsatisfactory per the Shared Approach on Country Engagement. CLR Reviewed by: Peer Reviewed by: CLR Review Manager/Coordinator Nils Fostvedt Albert Martinez Ismail Arslan Consultant, IEGEC Consultant, IEGEC Acting Manager, IEGEC Surajit Goswami Lourdes Pagaran Consultant, IEGHC CLRR Coordinator, IEGEC CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 2 in terms of time of delivery. The program aligned quite well to the twin goals, but the poverty dimension of the WBG program could have been even stronger, including the attention to inclusion – although with a poverty rate of 37.5 percent (2014) there is strong overlap between poverty and shared prosperity issues. iii. Under the CAS, governance was seen as Cameroon’s greatest challenge to growth and development, as the pervasiveness of weak governance affected most economic transactions, and this was therefore a cross-cutting foundation theme in the CAS. However, there was very modest progress for this theme, with an overall rating of Unsatisfactory. Governance indicators over-relied on PEFA indicators that could not be verified because the government postponed the planned PEFA to 2017. The CAS and CASPR could have provided intermediate indicators to measure progress against the governance objectives. Other objectives performed somewhat better in terms of achieving targets (access to infrastructure and health services), but some indicators were insufficient to measure the achievement of objectives and are project level indicators. A number of reported indicator results could not be verified from the available documentation. The Kribi Gas to Power project provided 216 MW of electricity through an IDA guarantee project, IFC lending and later a MIGA guarantee. Average transit times for imports from the exit from the Douala port were reduced, days to register a business declined substantially (although less than planned), and some improvements in the use of natural resources, although several of the indicators could not be verified. Completion rate in primary education increased from 64 percent (2007) to 83 percent, but there were no indicators for educational quality. Some indicators provided gender disaggregation in terms of female beneficiary percentages, albeit they seem to be of unclear validity. iv. The CAS program was reasonably well designed in light of country requirements and (significant) constraints, and proved to be quite stable with all nine objectives maintained in the CASPR. It addressed appropriate and important areas, and was designed for gradual and quite modest improvements. The effort to ground the strategy in governance as a foundational theme did not achieve substantial improvements. The results framework had weaknesses including that some of the objectives were not underpinned by strong indicators and the apparent level of ambition was in some areas quite modest. There was good Bank/IFC cooperation in some areas – in particular electricity, where MIGA was also engaged. Knowledge activities provided good support for the preparation of lending operations, and the CLR provides several examples of widespread dissemination. v. The CASPR addressed an important stepping-up of supervision and implementation support, and also a stronger focus on a few selected operations going forward. Several safeguard issues came up that were resolved, at times after a delay. Lending was significantly above CAS expectations – including a significant amount of regional operations that were not well discussed in the CAS documents including the CLR - while the pace of advisory services and analytics (ASA) deliveries seems to have picked up somewhat after the end of the CAS period. The results framework was largely stable throughout the extended CAS period, but not enough attention was given up front to whether the results could be measured. Environment and social safeguards policies were triggered in nine closed and validated investment operations during the life of the CAS, and compliance with the policies was reported to have been achieved in most sectors. Complaints about possible fraud and corruption resulted in three substantiated cases; in two of these government entities investigated and came to satisfactory conclusions. vi. IFC focused on development and support of the electricity and financial sector. The effort in the electricity sector was more extensive, involving multiple institutions. During the CAS period, IFC helped two microfinance institutions and, after the CAS period, IFC is in the process of developing the SME portfolio in a leading bank, as well as entities serving value chains of various agricultural commodities. vii. IEG draws three main lessons from this CLR: First, programs addressing governance need to provide a mix of interventions commensurate with the nature of the objectives, be structured realistically to conditions on the ground and Bank instruments. Second, indicators need to be CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 3 designed keeping in mind the ability to monitor progress and to measure and assess end results. Third, Bank country program documents including CLRs need to pay clear attention where there are (as for Cameroon) significant indications of broader underlying fiduciary and governance issues. viii. IEG also agrees with the following lessons from the CLR: Centralized approaches to strengthening governance need to be complemented with decentralized and sector-based approaches. The impact of investment lending is much higher when it is accompanied by sector policy and institutional reform which is possible only when government ownership is strong. To focus more directly on poverty reduction and spatial inequality, the World Bank needs to step up its support in those geographic areas where poverty is most pronounced. In the Far North, program design, implementation and supervision needs to be tailored to the presence of active conflict. Smooth portfolio implementation requires follow-up on procurement, financial management and safeguards, and very close collaboration with counterpart ministries. The quality of the results framework needs to be strong and it needs to be used as a tool for monitoring progress against the program. 4. Strategic Focus Relevance of the WBG Strategy: 1. Congruence with Country Context and Country Program. At the time of the CAS (2010) Cameroon was coming out of a period of slow growth due to the impact of the financial crisis, but economic growth was expected to improve (as it did). Cameroon was seen as a resource-rich country with large potential and a government that had a weak record with respect to stimulating growth and implementing reforms. The generated growth was not distributed in an equitable, pro-poor manner. One explanation was governance, which posed a major challenge to the country’s economic potential. Since then, security has also become an important issue, with Boko Haram being active in the northern regions of the country. 2. Cameroon’s economy remains predominantly rural and informal, but with rapid urbanization. The government’s overall development goals are set out in its long-term strategy, the 2035 Vision, and include poverty reduction, and becoming a middle-income and newly industrialized country, and with a fair distribution of resources between regions and between rural and urban areas. In 2009, the Government also adopted a shorter term Growth and Employment Strategy (DSCE) for the first ten years of the 2035 Vision and with several objectives to be met by 2020 including a 5.5 percent annual average GDP growth rate 2010-2020, reduce the rate of poverty from 39.9 percent in 2007 to 28.7 percent, and achieve the MDGs. Cameroon has broadly achieved its GDP growth target, but this was not enough to set the country on a path to meet the other DSCE objectives. Thus, the annual GDP growth rate averaged 5.1 percent during the period of the CAS, and improved to almost 6 percent in 2015-2016; but poverty rates have remained essentially unaltered since 2001 (38 percent below the national poverty line in 2014), and most MDGs have not been achieved. Inequality has increased, with disparity between regions becoming increasingly pronounced. This constitutes a potential driver of fragility and conflict, particularly in the northern regions also affected by the Boko Haram. Poverty incidence is also much lower in urban than in rural areas, and 90 percent of all poor people live in rural areas. 3. In this context the recent Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) emphasizes as binding constraints for poverty alleviation low rural productivity, particularly in the north, a non-conducive business environment for the formal and informal private sector, and fragility and poor governance of the public and private sectors. The business environment improved during the period of the CAS but remains a key obstacle for economic diversification (the country’s overall Ease of Doing Business ranking worsened marginally between 2011 and 2016), while educational quality has been eroding, and health outcomes are generally similar to those of lower-income countries despite high levels of spending. CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 4 4. The Bank’s strategy was well aligned with country challenges and the government’s own objectives, given the emphasis of the CAS program on governance, competitiveness (infrastructure, business climate and use of natural resources), and public sector services (education, health, basic infrastructure and social safety nets). The program generally did address key challenges for the country, although – as discussed later in this Review– some of the objectives were not underpinned by strong indicators and the apparent level of ambition was in some areas quite modest. The program was largely unchanged in the CASPR, but some indicators were dropped and others were weakened primarily in terms of timing of delivery. 5. Relevance of Design. The program as articulated in the CAS, and maintained (with some changes in indicators) in the CASPR, drew on lessons from previous programs including need for simpler project design to ensure fit with the government’s implementation capacity and to recognize a history of frequent differences between commitments at the political and administrative levels, underlying readiness issues, and the need for the Bank to deepen its engagement on governance. The Bank responded to these lessons by seeking to ground the strategy in governance as a foundational theme, and by including measures for transparency and accountability in several Bank operations. However, the unsuccessful governance component was supported mainly by AAA and trust fund projects, besides an FY08 operation that was not well designed. In addition, the governance indicators depended heavily on PEFA indicators that were not undertaken as envisaged during the CAS period. The lack of traction of governance reforms may have been due in part to design issue but could be largely explained by limited government ownership. In light of the lack of results for the governance component, the Bank could have considered a different mix of instruments in support of governance that might have given better results. The resulting program also addressed important areas for Cameroon’s development including electricity, urban infrastructure, health and education. Also, a number of the indicators were directly project related (all indicators under objective 9 and several indicators under other objectives), with limited or no explicit links to other non-lending interventions. This indicates that the additionality of the country program was limited (that would have included possible impacts of ASA activities, trust funds and policy dialogue). For education, where quality has been eroding, it would also have been useful with an indicator on educational quality. 6. The IFC Program supported various institutions in the electricity and financial sector. The Program was key in addressing Outcome 4: Increased access to and quality of infrastructure services. For this Outcome, financed by an IFC loan, 216 MW additional capacity of power was made available through the Kribi gas power project. After the CAS period, IFC participated in sharing risks of commercial banks to lend to producer organizations in various agricultural business value chains. Selectivity 7. The program objectives were in line with and in support of the country’s stated development goals. The program was reasonably well focused and implementable, with objectives and indicators based on country experiences and diagnostics. The objectives and activities were consistent with WBG’s comparative advantages and WBG capacity – in particular, the important roles played by IFC and later MIGA for the development of the electricity sector. The CAS stated that the Bank had consulted actively with other donors, including a collaborative preparation process with the African Development Bank, but the documents did not identify any resulting specific areas of WBG non- engagement to avoid overlaps. Alignment 8. The program was developed before the introduction of the WBG’s twin goals, but retrospectively the program aligned quite well to these goals. The objectives did not shift during program implementation. In particular, the program addressed rural areas (where poverty is concentrated), and the CLR states that this included the northern regions that are particularly vulnerable both for climatic and security reasons although these regions were not singled out in the results framework. However, the SCD has concluded that economic growth in Cameroon has not CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 5 been inclusive, with the poorest household becoming poorer between 2001 and 2014. This indicates that the poverty dimension of the WBG program could have been even stronger, including the attention to inclusion – although with a poverty rate of 37.5 percent (2014) there is strong overlap between poverty and shared prosperity issues. 5. Development Outcome Overview of Achievement by Objective: 9. Following the shared methodology, the assessment of the development outcomes is based on the CASPR framework. At that stage, the program period was extended by one year, through FY14. The three results areas or focus areas (one described as a cross-cutting foundation on governance, and two as results areas), and all nine objectives were maintained, three for each of the three focus areas. All objectives were reasonably well aligned with country context and development goals. There were however modifications in the CASPR to a number of the indicators – six were dropped, two were replaced, and ten were extended, leaving a total of 27 indicators. As a result of these modifications, some of the objectives were not well supported by indicators as mentioned below. It is also noticeable that a number of the country program indicators were directly taken from specific projects, which may indicate modest additionality in the country program over individual operations, and the discussion below also raises questions concerning a few of the indicator measurements. Governance indicators used PEFA indicators which could not be validated because the conduct of the PEFA was rescheduled by the government in 2017. Finally, some indicators could not be verified notwithstanding assertions that they are linked to specific Bank interventions. Focus Area 1: Foundation Theme: Governance 10. Under the 2010 CAS, governance was seen as Cameroon’s greatest challenge to growth and development, as the pervasiveness of weak governance affected most economic transactions. There were three objectives under this focus area that were supported by a number of Bank AAA. (such as for support to the accountancy profession, IDF grant to build debt management capacity, budget transparency initiative, governance and management in the education sector) and one lending operation (FY08 Transparency and Accountability Capacity Building project). 11. Objective 1: Enhanced transparency and efficiency in public financial management , with two indicators: (i) Scope of the legislature scrutiny of the annual budget law (PEFA indicator 27i): It was envisaged to improve this PEFA indicator to B in 2013 (from C in 2007). However, the PEFA assessment was not carried out and postponed to 2017 by the government. Not Achieved. The CLR also notes that little or no progress was made in this area. For example, the 2016 budget was not shared with Parliament until after the start of parliamentary deliberations. (ii) The PFM legal framework to be revised towards compliance with CEMAC (Regional Economic and Monetary Union) PFM Directives by end 2013 and implementation in 2014. Partially Achieved since the revised draft of the PFM legal framework in line with CEMAC Directives was sent to the Presidency for first review – in 2012 as per the ICR and ICRR for the Transparency and Accountability Capacity Building Project. More broadly, the CLR notes that progress has been limited in budget execution, public accounting, internal and external oversight and integrated financial management information systems for public finance, that budget execution rates in investment remain low, and that coherent links between procurement and commitment plans are lacking. Objective 1 was Partially Achieved. 12. Objective 2: Improved sector governance focused on transparency and accountability. After the mid-term revisions there was only one indicator for this outcome: Availability of information on resources received by service delivery units. This was by itself a rather inadequate indicator for the broadly formulated outcome, and no PEFA assessment was undertaken that was needed to measure progress. (However, more generally the CLR reports that Bank support resulted in a number of successful pilots, such as individual performance contracts in two customs offices in the Port of Douala, but this information could not be verified.) Objective 2 was Not Achieved. CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 6 13. Objective 3: Improved demand-side governance and participation. There were two indicators for this outcome: (i) Public access to key fiscal information. As for several other indicators, this cannot be verified due to the lack of a PEFA assessment. However, the CLR notes the existence of some evidence of publication of fiscal information. Not Achieved. (ii) Establishment of a free online communications and information-sharing platform for civil society organizations (CSOs). The CLR states that the platform was established in 2013 and event organized to train CSOs in using participative methodology to monitor public investment budgets. IEG has further been informed that the platform was supported under a grant from the Governance Partnership Facility (GPF) and a report “Global review of the GPF in Cameroon, 2014” confirms the establishment of the platform. The CLR further notes that the use of this platform is below expectations, but also notes other initiatives of the Bank to support innovative sector-based governance reforms. Partially Achieved. Objective 3 was Partially Achieved. 14. With two objectives Partially Achieved and one objective Not Achieved this focus area was Unsatisfactory. Focus Area 2: Increasing Cameroon’s Competitiveness 15. Objective 4: Increased access to and quality of infrastructure services. There were a total of six indicators spread around the energy, transport and telecommunications sectors supported by a number of Bank operations, including Energy Sector Development project, Kribi Gas Power project, Lom Pangar Hydropower project, CEMAC Transport and Transit Facilitation project, and Central Africa Backbone project: (i) Electricity: Providing additional electricity (grid and off-grid) to villages in targeted rural areas. The target was for an increase of 200 villages (ten percent) from FY08 to FY14. This was Not Achieved. The Lom Pangar (FY 12) operation which is envisaged to increase hydropower generation experienced implementation delays (due to effectiveness and fiduciary issues) with construction works of the dam still underway while the Energy Sector Development Project (FY08) designed to increase access to rural areas also experienced significant implementation delays (the project’s closing date has now been extended by four years to 2017 or a total implementation period of nine years). (ii) Electricity: 216 MW of electricity to be supplied from the Kribi Gas to Power project starting in 2013. This was Achieved under IDA’s Kribi Gas Power Guarantee Project, by IFC lending and later by a MIGA guarantee. (iii) Transport: Dwell time for main importers at the Port of Douala was reduced by 2012 from 10.6 days to seven days by FY12 under the CEMAC Transport Transit Facilitation project, which has suffered major problems for its major road transport component, but has been successful with some other components. Achieved. (However, overall dwell times at the port are still very high.) (iv) and (v) Transport: Average transit times for imports from the exit from the Douala port were reduced (a) from 14.4 days to seven days to N’Djamena and from 12 days to five days to Bangui. Achieved. (vi) Telecom: Achieved. Total tele- density (active fixed and mobile subscriber per 100 inhabitants) reached 75 by 2013 and 80 by 2014 against a target of 70 by end 2013 (up from 28 in 2008), with support from the Central Africa Backbone project. This indicator was dropped from the project after the restructuring in 2014. However, the CLR notes that serious challenges remain in Cameroon’s ICT sector, which is still one of the key bottlenecks to competitiveness, and that it has fallen considerably behind that of peer sub- Saharan African countries in this area. One indicator was Not Achieved and three were Achieved. On this basis Objective 4 was Mostly Achieved 16. IFC and MIGA played a noticeable role in the development of the electricity sector. As mentioned above, IFC successfully helped establish 216 MW of additional capacity of power through the Kribi gas power project. In addition, Sonel, the privatized integrated national electric utility of Cameroon which had been developed during the previous CPF period, continued to be an IFC investee and played a key role as the off-taker of electricity from the generating companies. MIGA currently provides guarantees for all three IFC investees in the electricity sector. 17. Objective 5: Improved business climate and investment in targeted value chains (agriculture, eco-tourism, and wood transformation). There were two indicators for this outcome, of which only one (days to register a business) was clearly linked to investment climate, whereas the CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 7 linkage for the other (rice yields in rehabilitated irrigated areas) concerned value chains. It is not clear why the two quite distinct areas were combined under one objective. While the objective remained unchanged in the CASPR without any qualifications, the indicators for eco-tourism and wood transformation were dropped due to an expected restructuring of the related project. For these reasons, the two indicators are inadequate to reasonably measure progress towards the stated objective. (i) Average yields in rehabilitated irrigated areas. Partially Achieved. The average yield increased from the 2009 baseline of 5.2 tons per hectare to 5.8 tons in 2013 (and increased further to 6.1 tons in 2015). However, no indicators for eco-tourism or wood transformation. (ii) Days to register a business. Partially Achieved. The days declined from 34 in 2009 to 15 as per Doing Business 2015. (This number did not change in the Doing Business 2017, but Cameroon’s ranking slipped.) This was a substantial improvement, but the CLR notes that in addition to still being six days short of the target, several important factors are preventing further reductions in registration times. (In addition, Cameroon continues to face challenges in a number of areas of the business environment, and its overall performance under the Doing Business Index has not shown sustained improvement.) Both indicators were partially achieved; on this basis Objective 5 was Partially Achieved. 18. Objective 6: Improved transparency, equity and sustainability in the use of natural resources. There were four indicators for this outcome. (i) Mining title system in compliance with established procedures for transparency and efficiency. Partially Achieved. The Bank provided additional information on progress towards the achievement of this indicator (through the Mining Sector Technical Assistance project) with the putting in place recently of the mining cadaster and digitization of mining title documents, but also noted that additional work is still needed to gradually fill in all types of mining rights, and to provide additional training and communications to make the system widely known. In sum, the building blocks have been put in place for transparent and efficient titling system but more work needs to be done to have the system in compliance with established procedures for transparency and efficiency, (ii) Increase in area of natural forests and plantations under sustainable forest management. Partially Achieved. The CLR reports that 5.4 million hectares were under sustainable management against a target of 4.5 million. However, the ICRR for the Forest and Environment Development Program does not report on the number of hectares, but reports instead some percentagewise increases, below target numbers.) The CLR summary (Annex 1) does not mention plantations for this indicator, but the CLR text informs that the area of plantations under sustainable management also increased to 7,696 ha, in excess of the target of 5,000 ha. This number could however not be validated. (iii) Area under sustainable land management practices in targeted zones. Achieved. The target of 10,000 hectares by 2013 (from 1,000 hectares in 2009) was far exceeded at more than 88,000 hectares. It would have been useful for the CLR to explain such a dramatic over-delivery. (iv) Facilities for which annual environmental performance report certified as compliant. Not Achieved. This indicator is not well explained in the CLR, but seems to refer to environmental and social management plans by energy facilities. The CLR states that the share increased from 0 percent in 2009 to 33 percent in 2013, against a target of 70 percent. However, at the time of the ICR required legislation had not been issued for this indicator. For objective 6, one indicator was achieved, two partially achieved and one not achieved. On balance, this objective was Partially Achieved. 19. With one objective Mostly Achieved and two Partially Achieved, this focus area was Moderately Unsatisfactory. Focus Area 3: Improving Service Delivery 20. Objective 7: Improved quality and efficiency of the education system. This objective was primarily supported by the Education Development Capacity Building project. There were two indicators, but no indicator concerning educational attainments, which would have been appropriate given the formulation of the education indicator and also the concerns expressed in the CAS about educational quality: (i) Completion rate in primary education to increase from 64 percent (2007) to 80 percent by 2013, of whom at least 45 percent female. Achieved at 83 percent with gender target CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 8 also achieved as per CLR, although the latter is not mentioned in the ICR or ICRR. (ii) Efficiency in the distribution of teachers measured by a technical indicator (randomness in teacher allocation, the lower the more efficient). Not Achieved. The degree of randomness in teacher deployment did not decline, although there was a more equitable allocation of teachers to under-served regions. (Around this objective the CLR also notes some other areas of progress including reducing the pupil- teacher ratio in the public education system from 50:1 to 45:1, reducing primary repetition rates from 25 percent to 20 percent, and improving female-to-male enrolment rates in target areas from 0.58 to 0.82.) Outcome 7 had one indicator Achieved and one Not Achieved, based on which this outcome was Partially Achieved. 21. Objective 8: Improved access and quality of health services, supported by the Health Sector Support Investment project. This objective was supported by two appropriate indicators that however did not try and capture any changes in health outcomes: (i) Immunization DPT3 under one (years of age) from baseline of 67 percent as far back as 2004 to 73 percent in 2013, of whom at least 50 percent female. Mostly Achieved. The CLR states that 79.6 percent have been immunized nation-wide – well above the target, but the indicator for females is not available. IEG could not reconcile the CLR percentage with the actual numbers provided in the ISRs. Available data from the World Development Indicators (WDI) indicates an immunization rate of 89 percent in 2014 (but dropped to 84 percent in 2015) for children 12-23 months. Project and national level data show an upward trend albeit the age cohort between project and national data is different. (Also, the formulation “at least 50 percent female” could seem strange in this case and could be read as encouraging the discrimination of male babies, unless births in Cameroon should be deviating very dramatically from the normal distribution worldwide of about 106 boys born per 100 girls.) (ii) Births attended by skilled professionals to increase (very modestly) from 63 percent in 2006 to 66 percent in 2013. Available WDI data indicates a slight increase to 64.7 percent. Partially Achieved. The CLR gives the percentage at 65 percent. Objective 8 is thus assessed as Mostly Achieved. 22. Objective 9: Improved access to basic infrastructure and social safety nets, supported most importantly by the Urban and Water Development Support project. This objective was supported by four project-related indicators, of which the third measured three distinct aspects: (i) People benefiting from all-year access to transportation and improved sanitary conditions in targeted urban areas, to increase from a 2009 baseline of 35,000 to a 2013 target of 290,000, of whom at least 50 percent female. Partially Achieved. The CLR states that as of August 2015 more than 435,000 people benefited from all year access to transportation in targeted cities, with more than 50 percent female beneficiaries, referring to the ICR for the Urban and Water Development project. There is however no mention of sanitary conditions (which were part of the indicator) and the accuracy and relevance of any calculations of gender distributions for this type of measures is not clear. The source for the gender percentage in this case is also not quite clear since the ICR has a separate, broader indicator for people benefitting from urban roads, drainage and access to water, with 54 percent female direct beneficiaries. (ii) Additional people with access to improved water supply up from 6.9 million in 2009 to 8.3 million by end of 2013. Achieved. The CLR states that as of August 2015 8.43 million had such access, of whom more than 50 percent female. However, as for the first indicator there is no reference in the referenced ICR to gender percentages – except for the overall percentage mentioned above, and for this indicator the list of project development objectives in the ICR also notes that “baseline/target values not consistent with the available sector targets”. (iii) People in the Second Community Development Program Support Project area with improved access to (a) education, (b) health care facilities, and (c) improved water sources. Partially Achieved. Education: The CLR states that a total of 122,340 students in project areas had improved access to education facilities by end 2013 against a target of 103,000. However, per the ICR and IEG’s validation the total number was 44,340, below the target of 103,000. Health care facilities: 428,925 people in project areas had improved access against target of 196,000. Water source: 437,100 people against target for 2013 of 208,000. The CLR states that for all three measurements a gender target of at least 50 percent females had been met, but the ICR is clear that there were no gender-specific indicators in the project’s M&E system, so the sources for these numbers and their validity are unclear. (iv) CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 9 Number of households with access to safety nets created under the Social Safety Net Project: Not Achieved. Project effectiveness was delayed, and implementation of the cash transfer program started only in November 2015. With one indicator Achieved, two Partially Achieved, and one Not Achieved, this objective was Mostly Achieved. 23. Two objectives under this focus area were Mostly Achieved and one Partially Achieved. This focus area was Moderately Satisfactory. Overall Assessment and Rating 24. The program generally did address key challenges for the country, although often with quite modest and partial objectives or indicators that overall did not address with sufficient weight the really key issues facing the country. IEG also found it very difficult to validate a number of the reported results from the available documentation. The attempt to ground the strategy in governance as a foundational theme was not successful, even if one disregards the measurement issues from the government’s postponement of the PEFA, and different ways need to be found going forward to address the important governance issues. Also, with a number of the indicators being directly project related, the additionality was probably limited of the country program over the direct results of investment operations. Of the nine objectives, one objective was not achieved, five objectives were partially achieved, and three were mostly achieved. On balance, IEG rates the development outcome as Unsatisfactory. Objectives CLR Rating IEG Rating Focus Area 1: CAS Foundation: Unsatisfactory Unsatisfactory Governance Objective 1: Enhanced transparency and Partially Achieved Partially Achieved efficiency in public financial management. Objective 2: Improved sector governance Not Verified Not Achieved focused on transparency and accountability. Objective 3: Improved demand-side Partially Achieved Partially Achieved governance and participation. Focus Area 2: Increasing Cameroon’s Moderately Moderately Competitiveness Satisfactory Unsatisfactory Objective 4: Increased access to and quality Mostly Achieved Mostly Achieved of infrastructure services Objective 5: Improved business climate and Mostly Achieved Partially Achieved investment in targeted value chains (agriculture, eco-tourism, and wood transformation) Objective 6: Improved transparency, equity Mostly Achieved Partially Achieved and sustainability in the use of natural resources. Moderately Moderately Focus Area 3: Improving Service Delivery Satisfactory Satisfactory Objective 7: Improved quality and efficiency Mostly Achieved Partially Achieved of the education system Objective 8: Improved access and quality of Mostly Achieved Mostly Achieved health services. Objective 9: Improved access to basic Mostly Achieved Mostly Achieved infrastructure and social safety nets. CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 10 6. WBG Performance Lending and Investments 25. At the beginning of the CAS period there were 12 IDA operations under implementation for a total amount of $571 million, having been approved between FY03 and FY09. They covered a number of areas including agriculture, energy, health, urban infrastructure, education, and forestry and environment. During the period FY10-14 IDA approved a total of 14 operations (including additional financings) for a total of $862 million – this was almost double the previous CAS period (FY04-08). The lending included two unplanned projects whereas seven planned operations were dropped. Most of these had been planned for the early years of the CAS period, but some were also dropped after the tightening of the lending program in the CASPR. (After the end of FY14 three new operations have been approved - $100 million for a Health System performance Project, $70 million for a Community Development Program and $100 million for an Agriculture SIL.) The lending was significantly above CAS expectations for the original CAS period –with an expected IDA allocation of $430 million. (The discussions in the CAS and CASPR of expected lending focused on IDA availability and were otherwise unclear as to lending expectations.) During the CAS period, 18 grants and trust funds were active, of which ten for a total amount of $87.9 million were approved during the period. This included two operations in the education sector of $53.3 million and $24.8 million, respectively. The first of these from the Education for All Fast-Track Initiative has been completed and rated Moderately Satisfactory by IEG. 26. Regional projects accounted for more than 30 percent of overall approvals FY10-14, for three different operations: The ongoing CEMAC Transport and Transit Facilitation project (first approved in FY07, additional financings in FY10 and 11), Central Africa Backbone project (FY10), and African Higher Education Center for Excellence project (FY14). At least two other regional projects were under implementation during the CAS period – the CEMAC Regional Institutions Support project (as per CLR, was delivered before start of CAS), and the FY06 West and Central Africa Air Transport and Security project, and there were also trust-funded regional knowledge and technical assistance activities. There was however little discussion in the CAS and no discussion in the CLR of this substantial set of operations. It should be noted that the CEMAC Transport project has suffered from significant difficulties for its road works component including from continued poor security situation in Northern Cameroon and the Central African Republic. The latest ISR rating is Moderately Unsatisfactory for progress towards achievement of PDO, while good progress has been achieved on some indicators including in Cameroon not related to road works, as mentioned above. The project was restructured in FY16, at which time the closing date was extended to January 31, 2019, resulting in a total cumulative extension of six years. 27. Cameroon has in the past had significant problems with portfolio performance. This was the case also during the FY10-14 CAS period. The CLR reports that the program faced implementation challenges including procurement delays, insufficient counterpart funding, and complexity in the social safeguards-related compensation, but that following the CASPR the Bank team provided enhanced supervision support, regular portfolio reviews and also restructured a number of projects. The disbursement ratio rose from just over ten percent FY10-11 to around or above 20 percent from FY12 onwards. IEG rated 11 completed projects during FY10-16, of which 45 percent either Satisfactory (2) or Moderately Satisfactory (3), and 55 percent either Moderately Unsatisfactory (2) or Unsatisfactory (4). Factors on the ground (such as poor performance of the government and/or implementing agencies) contributed to the negative outcomes, while other factors included weak quality at entry and insufficient supervision. The aggregate 45 percent outcome rating by numbers is well below the average Africa rating of 66 percent, but is also far below Cameroon’s aggregate rating by amount at 83percent, since the five largest completed operations (by IDA amount) were rated above the line and the six smallest below. There were however no significant differences for risk to development outcome – ten of the 11 operations were rated either High or Significant. During the CAS period the percentage of projects at risk varied from a high of 62 percent (FY14) and 27 percent (FY11) – and was around 40 percent in FY15-16. Currently there are 15 operations under CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 11 implementation of which ten (67 percent) are rated S or MS in the Bank’s supervision system. This is significantly above the IEG ratings by numbers for completed projects and could indicate a candor gap and high potential for downgrading on completion. 28. At the CAS inception, four IFC investment projects, with $92.5 million of net commitments, were active with about 97 percent by amounts in the electricity sector. During FY10-14, IFC committed another $109.3 million through seven new investments (and another three investments for $23.5 million in FY15-16). At the end of FY16 about 78 percent of the investments were in the electricity sector (during FY10-14, 79 percent of investments by amounts were in the electricity sector). Of the 14 investments that were active during FY10-16 all are still active (except in one case where a loan was repaid with only the equity portion of IFC’s investment being still active). Over 55 percent of the portfolio in dollar terms is currently rated substandard or worse. IEG has reviewed one investment in a microfinance institution, where IFC made a number of investments, and rated it Mostly Unsuccessful. Of particular concern is also the investment in the off-taker in the electricity sector, which IFC’s internal Development Outcome Tracking System (DOTS) has rated as Unsuccessful mainly due to negative Return on Equity (ROE) until now. One of the issues behind the poor ROE of the off-taker is the recurrent delay in obtaining payment from the government which then also affects the generating companies where IFC and others have invested. 29. MIGA gave coverage for $296 million during FY10-14 in support of four investments, three of which in the electricity sector and one in telecommunications. The CLR (para 22) erroneously indicates the role of MIGA guarantee for Kribi. In reality, an investor had already developed the facility with an IFC loan, whereas the MIGA guarantee facilitated the sale to another party of this investment. The Kribi Gas Power plant now benefits from an IFC loan (not an equity investment as the CLR indicates in para 49), an IDA risk guarantee and a MIGA guarantee. Also in the other facilities with current IFC and MIGA engagements, the initial developments did not have MIGA participation. Analytic and Advisory Activities and Services 30. During the CAS period – FY10-14 – the Bank delivered six pieces of economic and sector work and 11 of technical assistance. The pace seems to have picked up somewhat thereafter, with an additional three pieces of ESW and no less than 12 of technical assistance. The CLR underlines in particular ESW for the education and health sector that also helped prepare Bank lending operations, as did diagnostic and feasibility studies to support the government’s pilot cash transfer program and the preparation of a Bank Social Safety Net project. Many of the technical assistance items are also linked to Bank operations. The program was also supported by a substantial number of grants and trust funds, with 18 active during the CAS period for a total amount of $111.3 million, including several large allocations for education ($78.1 million for two programs) and environment ($17.3 for four programs). 31. IFC had one advisory service (AS) project approved before FY10 that was implemented during the review period. During this period, IFC approved seven new AS projects amounting to over US$7.0 million of total funds. Of these eight projects, three have closed, and five are active. Of the three closed projects, at completion one was rated Mostly Successful, one Mostly Unsuccessful (validated subsequently by the IEG) and one Unsuccessful for Development Effectiveness. Of the five active projects, a large investment climate AS initiative has been progressing well (with about six months to go), an initiative on credit reporting/bureau with the BEAC (the Central Bank) is being rated very poorly on outcomes till date, while it is quite early in the implementation periods for the other three go. Results Framework 32. The results framework was largely stable throughout the extended CAS period, with some weakening in the CASPR (dropping of some indicators). Most indicators had quantitative baselines and targets, or were yes/no. This framework served the program up to a point. It was however as originally designed probably too wide-ranging (nine objectives and 31 indicators), and – even more after the modifications in the CASPR – the linkages were not strong between some objectives and CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 12 their indicators (see for example objectives 5 and 6 above). Not enough attention was given up front to whether the results could be measured (as did not happen with several governance measurements due to the PEFA postponement) – and for any program implementation it would in any case be better to have indicators that can be measured periodically and thus provide feedback on progress. The inclusion in the CASPR of various gender measurements seemed “quick and dirty” as described above – with questions regarding both definitions and the validity of the reported percentages. Finally, the CLR concludes that the results framework was not used as a tool for regular engagement with the country team. Partnerships and Development Partner Coordination 33. The country program documents describe a careful CAS preparation process with a significant amount of consultations including with other development partners. The CAS describes in particular a collaborative preparation process with the African Development Bank (AfDB), where under the two institutions worked together to flesh out their proposed strategies, shared common diagnostics and sought to identify synergies. The CLR also mentions the Lom Pangar Hydropower project, where IDA collaborated with the AfDB, EIB and AFD (France). Safeguards and Fiduciary Issues 34. Environment and social safeguards policies were triggered in nine closed and validated investment operations during the CAS period. Compliance with the policies was reported to have been achieved in most sectors. Two project components for forest and sustainable land management (under the Community Development Program Support Projects, phases 1 and 2) indicated satisfactory compliance with all triggered policies, although the preparation of project instruments – especially environmental assessments - could have been improved by ensuring that environmental screening forms were properly completed. Some delays in the implementation of impact mitigation measures were also recorded during implementation, and the ICRR also reports the unofficial handling of voluntary land donations. One particular achievement of the project was the recognition and empowerment of Indigenous Peoples. This helped reduce the incidences of conflicts between the majority Bantu and Pygmies. No safeguards issues were brought to the Inspection Panel during the CAS period. 35. In the road sector, compliance with the environmental and social safeguards requirements was hampered by low capacities on the ground, and the lack of sufficient provisions in the appraisal document to mitigate social risks associated with construction works. However, the ICRR reports that all affected persons and businesses were in the end properly compensated. In education, constructions were reported in the ICR and the ICRR to be small-scale, and compliance with the safeguard policies remained consistently satisfactory. In the energy sector, Bank support was mainly for technical assistance. An environmental screening classification was nevertheless applied in anticipation of the subsequent implementation of the Environmental and Social Management plans, and other due diligence instruments. In the water sector, safeguard instruments were reported to have been prepared and properly disclosed. The ICR reports only partial compliance with the resettlement policy and does not include any statement of compliance with environmental safeguards, while the ICRR reported delays in compensation due to administrative formalities, noting further that 95 per cent of project affected populations had been compensated by the project closure. 36. In terms of fiduciary aspects, the CAS risk discussion saw Cameroon as a high-risk environment, and the CLR points out that project implementation in Cameroon has typically been affected by lengthy procurement processes, long delays in finalizing compensation under safeguard policies, and inefficiencies in the chain of public financial management. According to the Integrity Vice Presidency, a total of 28 complaints during the period FY10-16 were received about possible fraud and corruption. These complaints resulted in eight investigations for seven projects (Bank plus IFC), of which three were substantiated. In two of these cases government entities investigated and came to satisfactory conclusions, whereas in the third case a claim has been substantiated but the entity still has not paid and the project (the Cameroon component of a regional project) has therefore been CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 13 placed on the corporate watch list. These quite high numbers are likely indicative of broader underlying fiduciary and governance issues that have as yet not been overcome in spite of stronger Bank attention to procurement and fiduciary issues in its projects. It would have been appropriate for the CLR to provide a discussion of the Bank’s experience with these issues and how these were addressed. Ownership and Flexibility 37. The 2010 CAS noted as an important lesson that Bank teams should be attentive to the frequent disparity in commitment between the political and administrative levels. Several ICRRs on unsatisfactory projects completed during the period under review noted variable commitments by government and/or implementing entities during project implementation. Neither the CASPR nor the CLR say much about commitments during the CAS period, beyond noting in the CASPR the need for the Bank at that time to strengthen monitoring of progress and results. The Bank in the CASPR reasonably saw no reason to change objectives, while modifying some indicators and focusing the lending program more on larger operations and additional financing for well-performing projects. That document noted that for governance the legal framework remained weak and corruption continued to be seen as a major impediment. Given the lack of progress noted in the CASPR (in spite of some positive initiatives) it is possible that some course corrections could have been considered at that time. WBG Internal Cooperation 38. This CAS was not formally a joint program, but there are indications of good cooperation in selected areas. Objective 4 (Increased access to and quality of infrastructure services) included an important indicator (electricity supplied from Kribi gas to power project) carried out through support from IFC (and later MIGA) together with an IDA risk guarantee. The degree of cooperation appears to have become more pronounced since FY14 with the roles of IFC and MIGA in the electricity sector and the Bank and IFC in the development of agricultural value chains. IFC had been active in the electricity sector before the review period, including with investments in the off-taker for Kribi electricity. It continued to be an important investor in the sector during the CAS period through investments, while the Bank was involved with other multilaterals in a separate project (Lom Pangar). MIGA became heavily involved in the electricity sector in FY14. After the CAS period, there has been work by the Bank and IFC on the development of agriculture value chains. Risk Identification and Mitigation 39. The CAS discussed a number of pertinent risks including political economy risks, development effectiveness (poor track record of implementing reforms), Bank reputational risks (l with respect to the Lom Pangar project), and fiduciary risks. These risks remained relevant throughout the CAS period; in addition, with the advent of the Boko Haram security risks have come center stage in parts of the country – also amplifying inequalities in economic performance between regions. The latest IMF Article IV report (December 2015) also notes a growing fiscal deficit and a sharp rise from a low base in external debt – the CLR notes that Cameroon is at high risk of debt distress. The CLR explains that risk mitigation has been challenging but has been addressed (although the stepped-up supervision efforts after the CASCR could preferably have come sooner). According to the CLR, he reputational risks that emerged for the Lom Pangar project were mitigated effectively, with the help of extra funding for supervision work. Overall Assessment and Rating 40. IEG rates the WBG performance as Fair. CAS Design: The program noted and reflected lessons from previous programs, although the program was probably still too multifaceted. It was reasonably well designed in light of country requirements and (significant) constraints, and proved to be quite stable with all nine objectives maintained in the CASPR. However, while addressing appropriate and important areas the program was designed for gradual and quite modest improvements rather than to try and really achieve substantial change. The effort to ground the CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 14 strategy in governance as a foundational theme was appropriately intended but did not achieve substantial improvements. The results framework had weaknesses including disconnect between objectives and the related indicators. The program was not formally joint between the Bank and IFC/MIGA, but there was good cooperation in some areas – in particular electricity, where the latter two entities provided significant additionality. There was good consistency between lending operations and the supporting ESW. 41. CAS Implementation: The Bank program included IFC activities for the important electricity component. Knowledge activities provided good support for the preparation of lending operations, and the CLR provides several examples of widespread dissemination. The CASPR maintained the nine original objectives, but addressed an important stepping-up of supervision and implementation support, which could better have taken place sooner, and also a stronger focus on a few selected operations going forward. Several safeguard issues came up that were resolved, at times after a delay. Several indicators under the governance pillar could not be verified because the government postponed the needed PEFA to 2017 – it is not clear whether the Bank pushed sufficiently and early enough in this regard. Cameroon’s performance as measured by IEG ratings (MS or better) (by number of operations) for closed projects was well below the SSA average at 45 percent (MS or better). The higher ISR ratings for projects under implementation could indicate a candor gap and potential for downgrading on completion. In spite of the various performance issues, IDA’s lending increased substantially over the previous CAS period, and with no substantive discussion in the CASPR and in the CLR. 7. Assessment of CLR Completion Report 42. The CLR is concise and well organized. It covers all important aspects and gives a balanced and open assessment of country issues and program performance. However, IEG found it difficult to validate a number of the reported outcomes against the available documentation. Some more discussion of a few points could have been welcomed, as indicated earlier in this CLRR, including the experience during the CAS period with fiduciary and governance issues in WBG operations. It would also have been useful with a discussion of the experience during the CAS period with the regional projects. There are some modest factual errors regarding IFC/MIGA – their activities could also have been given some more attention - and some discrepancies between the discussion of the results framework in the text of the CLR and in its Annex 1. The CLR gives some information of events and trends after the end of the CAS period, but this could have been done more systematically given the long delay for the preparation of this document. Finally, it would have been appropriate with a more in-depth consideration of the weaknesses in the governance component of the CAS program and the implications going forward of this experience. 8. Findings and Lessons 43. IEG draws three main lessons from this CLR:  Programs addressing governance need to provide a mix of interventions commensurate with the nature of the objectives, be structured realistically to conditions on the ground and Bank instruments.  Indicators need to be designed keeping in mind the ability to monitor progress and to measure and assess end results.  Bank country program documents including CLRs need to pay clear attention where there are (as for Cameroon) significant indications of broader underlying fiduciary and governance issues. 44. The CLR provides the following lessons with which IEG largely agrees:  Centralized approaches to strengthening governance need to be complemented with decentralized and sector-based approaches. CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 15  The impact of investment lending is much higher when it is accompanied by sector policy and institutional reform which is possible only when government ownership is strong.  To focus more directly on poverty reduction and spatial inequality, the World Bank needs to step up its support in those geographic areas where poverty is most pronounced.  In the Far North, program design, implementation and supervision needs to be tailored to the presence of active conflict.  Smooth portfolio implementation requires follow-up on procurement, financial management and safeguards, and very close collaboration with counterpart ministries.  The quality of the results framework needs to be strong and it needs to be used as a tool for monitoring progress against the program. CLR Review Annexes 17 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 1: Summary of Achievements of CAS Objectives – Cameroon Annex Table 2: Cameroon Planned and Actual Lending, FY10-FY16 Annex Table 3: Analytical and Advisory Work for Cameroon, FY10-FY16 Annex Table 4: Cameroon Grants and Trust Funds Active in FY10-16 Annex Table 5: IEG Project Ratings for Cameroon, FY10-16 Annex Table 6: IEG Project Ratings for Cameroon and Comparators, FY10-16 Annex Table 7: Portfolio Status for Cameroon and Comparators, FY10-16 Annex Table 8: Disbursement Ratio for the Cameroon, FY10-16 Annex Table 9: Net Disbursement and Charges for Cameroon, FY10-16 Annex Table 10: List of IFC Investments in Cameroon (US$ ,000) Annex Table 11: List of IFC Advisory Services for Cameroon (US$) Annex Table 12: IFC Net Commitment Activity in FY10 - FY16 Annex Table 13: List of MIGA Activities (US$ millions) Annex Table 14: Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance and Official Aid for Cameroon Annex Table 15: Economic and Social Indicators for Cameroon, 2010 - 2015 CLR Review Annexes 19 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 1: Summary of Achievements of CAS Objectives – Cameroon CAS FY10-FY13 – Focus Area 1: CAS Foundation Theme: Actual Results IEG Comments Governance Objective 1: Enhanced transparency and efficiency in public financial management (Partially Achieved) Indicator (i): Scope of the This outcome was supported by the Sources: CLR, ICR, ICRR legislature scrutiny of the annualTransparency and Accountability Capacity budget law (PI-27i) Building Project (P084160, FY08). IEG: U of the project reports that progress was limited Baseline: C in 2007 toward enhancing external oversight to enable the legislature and citizens to Target: B in 2013 exercise scrutiny and that the rating of the scope of the legislature scrutiny of the annual budget law was unchanged. A Public Expenditure Tracking Survey (PETS) was published but no dissemination and planned capacity building activities were implemented. No PEFA assessment was undertaken during the CAS period. According to the CLR the PEFA has been rescheduled by the government to 2017. Not Achieved. Indicator (ii): PFM legal The CLR reports that a revised draft of the framework PFM legal framework was submitted to the Presidency for first review. IEG: U and Baseline: not compliant with management: U of the Transparency and Major CEMAC PFM Directives issued on Accountability Capacity Building Project Outcome December 2011 (P084160, FY08 report that the diagnostic of Measures investment budget execution was completed Target: Revision towards and that the recommendations formed the compliance by end 2013 and basis of a draft decree submitted for implementation in 2014 Executive approval in 2012. Partially Achieved. Objective 2: Improved sector governance focused on transparency and accountability (Not Achieved) Indicator: Availability of This outcome was supported by the information on resources received Transparency and Accountability Capacity by service delivery units (PEFA Building Project (P084160, FY08). PI-23) Management: U and IEG: U report that “data was not available to measure progress” since Baseline: D in 2007 no PEFA assessment was undertaken during the CAS period. Not Achieved. Target: B in 2013 Objective 3: Improved demand-side governance and participation (Partially Achieved) Indicator (i): Public access to key Progress for this outcome was supported by fiscal information (PEFA PI-10) the Transparency and Accountability Capacity Building Project (P084160, FY08). Baseline: B in 2007 Management: U for this project reports that the actual value was B+; in December 2012 Target: A in 2013 and IEG: U reported that the target was not met. Not achieved. CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 20 CAS FY10-FY13 – Focus Area 1: CAS Foundation Theme: Actual Results IEG Comments Governance Indicator (ii): Establishment of a According to the CLR, the platform was free online communications and established in 2013. The Transparency and information sharing platform for Accountability Capacity Building Project civil society organizations by 2014 (P084160, FY08) supported this Outcome. Management: U for this project reports that, Baseline: no (2010) regarding Information and Communication Technology, the only output was the Target: yes (2014) production of a strategy. However, this project closed in 2012. The platform was supported under a grant from the Governance Partnership Facility (GBF) and the establishment of the platform is confirmed in a 2014 GPF report on Cameroon. Partially Achieved. CAS FY10-FY13 –Focus Area 2: Increasing Cameroon’s Actual Results IEG Comments Competitiveness Objective 4: Increased access to and quality of infrastructure services (Mostly Achieved) Indicator (i): Electrified villages Progress for this Outcome was supported by (grid and off-grid) in targeted the Energy Sector Development Project areas (P104456, FY10) and by the Lom Pangar Hydropower Project (P114077, FY12). No Baseline: 2,100 in 2008 progress was reported for this indicator because bids were only received at the end Target: 2,300 in 2014 of the CAS period per the last ISR : MS of the CAS period (July 2014) and latest ISR: MS after the end of the CAS period (July 2016) Not Achieved. Indicator (ii): Electricity supplied Progress for this Outcome was supported by from Kribi gas to power project the Kribi Gas Power Project (P110177, Major FY11), the IFC Project Kribi Power Outcome Baseline: 0 MW Development Company SA (project 25978, Measures FY11) and by the MIGA Guarantee for Kribi Target: 216 MW by Q1 2013 Power Development Corporation and Company (FY13). No ISR or ICR was found for project P110177. IFC’s Credit Risk Rating (12/16) of Kribi Power Development Company S.A. indicated, among many other things, that “The plant has been operating since mid-May 2013. Achieved Indicator (iii): Reduction in the Progress to this Outcome was supported by operational and transactional dwell the CEMAC Transport Transit Facilitation time (‘dwell time for main Project (P079736, FY07). The latest ISR : importers”) in the Douala Port MU reports that the current operational and dwell times at Douala port was 6.30 days. Baseline: 10.6 days in 2009 The target was exceeded. Achieved. Target: 8.8 days in 2013 CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 21 CAS FY10-FY13 –Focus Area 2: Increasing Cameroon’s Actual Results IEG Comments Competitiveness Indicator (iv): Average time for Progress to this Outcome was supported by imports from the exit at the port of the CEMAC Transport Transit Facilitation Douala to N’Djamena Project (P079736, FY07). The latest ISR : MU reports that the average time for imports from Baseline: 14.4 days in 2009 the exit at the port of Douala: - to N’Djamena was 7 days and Target: 12 days in 2013 - was 5 days to Bangui. The target was exceeded. Achieved. to Bangui Baseline: 12 days in 2008 Target: 8 days in 2013 Indicator (v): Total teledensity Progress to this Outcome was supported by IEG comment: this (active fixed and mobile the Central African Backbone Project indicator was dropped subscribers per 100 inhabitants) (P108368, FY10). Management: MS for the during the 2014 project reports that the target was exceeded, restructuring. The new Baseline: 28.1 in 2008 with a total tele density of 91.7 at project indicator was the following: closing (March 2016). No ISR reports on “MoU concluded by Target: 70 by end 2013 total tele-density before the closing of the Cameroon, Chad and CAR CAS period although the CLR reports that with at least one the telecom density had increased to 75 neighboring country to percent in 2013. The target is achieved. facilitate cross border Achieved. interconnection regime”. Objective 5: Improved business climate and investment in targeted value chains (agriculture, eco- tourism, and wood transformation) (Partially Achieved). Indicator (i): Average rice yields Progress to this Outcome was supported by This indicator only refers in rehabilitated irrigated areas the Agriculture Competitiveness Project to agriculture value chain (P112635, FY9). The latest ISR: S reported but not the eco-tourism Baseline: 5.2 tons/ha in 2009 that the actual average rice yields in the and wood transformation, rehabilitated irrigated areas was 5.97 for which planned Target: 5.8 tons/ha in 2013 tons/ha. The most recent ISR: S, after the indicators were dropped in end of the CAS period (April 2016) reported the CASPR without any that the actual average yields was 6.90 modifications or comments tons/ha. Partially achieved. regarding the stated objective. Indicator (ii): Days to register a According to Doing Business 2015 it takes The Bank’s contribution to business 15 days to register a business in Cameroon. this outcome is not clear. Partially Achieved. Baseline: 34 in 2009 Target: 9 by end 2013 Objective 6: Improved Transparency, equity and sustainability in the use of natural resources. (Partially Achieved) Indicator (i): Mining title system in This objective was supported by the Mining . compliance with established Sector Technical Assistance Project procedures for transparency and (P122153, FY12) the latest ISR: S reports efficiency (Yes/No) that the modern computerized mining CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 22 CAS FY10-FY13 –Focus Area 2: Increasing Cameroon’s Actual Results IEG Comments Competitiveness cadaster was not fully complete. The Bank Baseline: no system in place has confirmed to IEG that while the mining (2009) cadaster has recently been put in place, with digitization of mining title documents and Target: system in place by 2014 introduction of a cadastral institution for the management of mining titles, additional work is still needed to gradually fill in all types of mining rights, and to provide additional training and communications. Partially achieved. Indicator (ii): Increase in area of This Outcome was supported by a natural forests and plantations programmatic DPO Operation, the Forest under Sustainable Forest and Environment Development Program management (P070656/P073020, FY06) and by the FY12 GEF-funded Ngoyla Mintom Project Baseline: 3.5 M ha of natural (P118018) and the Community Development forests and 0 ha of plantations in Program Support Project (FY04, P073629). 2009 Management: U; IEG: U for projects Target: 4.5 M ha of natural forests P070656/P073020 does not report on the and 5,000 ha of plantations in number of ha of natural forests and of 2012 plantations under sustainable forest management but reports, at the end of the project (December 2011) an increase of production forests under a forest management plan from 66% to 90% (the target was 100%) and the fact that 83 of the 92 assigned long-term forest management units had a management plan. However, the last ISR of the evaluation period of project P118018 and the ICRR and ICR for project P073629 do not report on hectares of plantations, further information from the Bank has confirmed that there is no evidence for the reported increase in the areas of plantations under sustainable management, but that a key milestone towards this was achieved by a government decision to transfer 7,186 hectares of plantations to municipalities and to incorporate 500 hectares through plantations into forest reserves. Overall, the target was Partially Achieved. Indicator (iii): Area under SLM The Sustainable Agro-pastoral and Land practices in targeted zones Management Promotion Project under the Community Development Program Support Baseline: 1,000 ha by 2009 Project (P089289, FY04) contributed to this Outcome. IEG: S reports that the areas Target: 10,000 ha by 2013 under sustainable land management practices was far exceeded – at 88,448 hectares. Achieved. CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 23 CAS FY10-FY13 –Focus Area 2: Increasing Cameroon’s Actual Results IEG Comments Competitiveness Indicator (iv): Facilities for which Progress for this Outcome was supported by annual environmental the Environmental and Social Capacity performance report certified as Building for the Energy Sector Project compliant by MinEP with EMP (P109588, FY08). IEG: U for this project reports that “This indicator requires Baseline: 0% in 2009 legislation that requests energy facilities to prepare and submit annual performance Target: 70% by end 2013 reports to the ICE /MinEP. At the time of the ICR, such legislation has not yet been issued and no annual environmental performance reports were prepared by or certified during the project’s lifetime”. Not Achieved. CAS FY10-FY13 –Focus Area 3: Actual Results IEG Comments Improving Service Delivery Objective 7: Improved quality and efficiency of the education system (Partially Achieved) Indicator (i): Completion rate in This Outcome was supported by the primary education Education Development Capacity Building Project (P075964, FY05). IEG : MU reports Baseline: 64% in 2007 that the primary completion rate increased to 83% in 2010..However, IEG : MU and Target: 80% by 2013 – of whom Management : MU do not report on female at least 45 percent are female completion rate in primary education. Achieved Indicator (ii): Efficiency in the Progress for this Outcome was supported by distribution of teachers measured the Education Development Capacity Building by a low degree of randomness in Project (P075964, FY05). IEG: MU reports teacher allocation that the indicator decreased from 45% to 42% in 2010. Not achieved. Major Baseline: 45% by 2009 Outcome Target: 25% by 2013 Measures Objective 8: Improved access and quality of health services (Mostly Achieved) Indicator (i): Immunization DPT3 Progress for this Outcome was supported by Available data from WDI under-1 the Health Sector Support Investment refers to the 12-23 (P104525, FY08). months, not for children Baseline: 67% in 2004 The last ISR: S of the CAS period reported under 1, indicating an that 56% of the end target of the number of immunization rate of about Target: 73% in 2013 – of whom at children immunized in targeted areas was 73% in 2004 and 89% in least 50 percent are female achieved (56,895 children over 100,000). 2013; but dropped to 84% The last ISR : S for the project (in April 2016, in 2015. after the CAS period) reported an actual value of 232,971 children immunized compared to a The project data and target of 200,000.These projects numbers national data (albeit with could not be reconciled with the numbers set different age group) point as CAS indicators. to an upward trend during In addition, both ISRs do not present female- the review period. related indicators. Mostly Achieved. CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 24 CAS FY10-FY13 –Focus Area 3: Actual Results IEG Comments Improving Service Delivery Indicator (ii): Births attended byThis Outcome was supported by the Health Available data from WDI skilled professional Sector Support Investment (P104525, FY08). shows a slight increase The last ISR: S of the CAS period reported from 63% in 2006 to Baseline: 63% in 2006 that 35,287 births were attended compared to 64.7% in 2014. a baseline of 30,000). The Project Paper for Target: 66% in 2013 the Additional Financing of this operation Project and national data reported that 57,139 births were attended by point to an upward but skilled professional in target areas in modest uptake. December 2013 compared to a target of 60,000 by December 2017. These projects numbers could not be reconciled with the numbers set as CAS indicators. Partially Achieved. Objective 9: Improved access to basic infrastructure and social safety nets (Mostly Achieved) Indicator (i): People benefiting This objective was supported by the Urban from all-year access to and Water Development Support Project transportation and improved (P084002, FY07). As reported in IEG: MS sanitary conditions in targeted over 435,000 people had all year access to urban areas urban roads in the targeted settlements . However, the ICRR does not report how Baseline: 35,000 in 2009 many people benefited from sanitary conditions. IEG: MS also reports that 54% of Target: 290,000 by end 2013, of the beneficiaries of all project activities were whom at least 50 percent are women. Partially Achieved. female Indicator (ii): Additional people Progress for this Outcome was supported by with access to improved water the Urban and Water Development Support supply (IDA+OBA) Project (P084002, FY07) and by the Cameroon Water Affermage – OBA for Baseline: 6.9 million in 2009 Coverage Expansion (P106794, FY09, IEG: MU). Management: MS and IEG: MS for Target: 8.3 million by end 2013, project P084002 report that more than 8.43 of whom at least 50% are female million people were provided with access to improved water sources in August 2014 and that about 54% of the direct project beneficiaries of the urban/water components were women. Achieved. Indicator (iii): People in the This Outcome was supported by the The project supporting this second community Development Community Development Support Project objective seems to have a Program Support Project area (P113027, FY09). positive impact but the with improved access to: numbers reported in the ICR for project P13027 are Education facilities: Education Facilities: IEG: MS reports that very different from the Baseline: 78,000 in 2009 44,340 students have better access to CAS. Target: 103,000 in 2013 of whom educational facilities in the project are. There at least 50 percent are female is no disaggregation of female indicators. Not Achieved. CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 25 CAS FY10-FY13 –Focus Area 3: Actual Results IEG Comments Improving Service Delivery Health care facilities: Health care facilities: IEG: MS reports that Baseline: 66,000 in 2009 428,925 people have better access to health Target: 196,000 in 2013 of whom care facilities However, there is no at least 50 percent are female disaggregation of female beneficiaries. Mostly Achieved. Improved water source: Improved water source: IEG: MS reports Baseline: 92,000 in 2009 that 437,100 people have better access to Target: 208,000 in 2013 of whom improved water points target was achieved. at least 50 percent are female However, there is no disaggregation of female beneficiaries. Mostly Achieved. Indicator (iv): Number of Progress for this Outcome was supported by households with access to safety the Social Safety Net Project (P128534). nets created under the Social Effectiveness was delayed and the Safety Net Project implementation of the cash transfer program started only in November 2015 (after the end Baseline: 0 in 2012 of the CAS period). Not achieved per the last ISR: MS during the CAS period. The latest Target: 15,000 by 2014 ISR : MU (December 2016) reports that 20,500 households benefited from cash transfer programs. CLR Review Annexes 26 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 2: Cameroon Planned and Actual Lending, FY10-FY16 Approved Proposed Approval Closing Proposed Proposed Project ID Project name IDA Outcome Comments FY FY FY Amount Amount Amount* Rating Project Planned Under CPS/CPSPR 2010-2014 P110177 Kribi Guarantee 2010 2012 15 82 No Rating Part of a Central Africa Backbone regional P108368 APL1A*** 2010 2010 2016 3 9.9 project CEMAC Transport and Part of a Transit Facilitation regional P115259 Project 1st AF*** 2009 2010 150 150 project CEMAC Transport and Part of a Transit Facilitation regional P125915 Project 2nd AF*** 2011 2011 112 112 project Competitive Value P112975 Chains 2010 2010 2017 40 30 LIR: MU P121027 PDUE AF 2010 2011 29.7 28.7 P114077 Lom Pangar 2011 2012 2019 100 132 LIR: MS Central Africa Backbone DROPPED APL1B 2011 5 DROPPED DROPPED Regional Fisheries 2011 10 DROPPED DROPPED Protected Areas 2012 50 DROPPED P122153 Mining TA 2012 2012 2019 15 30 LIR: S P117102 Urban Sanitation 2012 2011 2017 50 30 LIR: MU DROPPED TACD AF 2013 15 DROPPED DROPPED Agri -Competitiveness AF 2013 60 DROPPED DROPPED Regional Fisheries 2013 10 DROPPED PNDP III (Community P144637 Dev. Prog. Sup. Project) 2013 2016 2020 40 70 LIR: S P128534 Safety Nets 2013 2013 2019 15 50 LIR: MU Transport-Douala- DROPPED N'Djamena corridor 2013 70 DROPPED P143940 Dyke Rehabilitation 2013 2013 2017 108 108 LIR: MS P143417 Agriculture SIL 2014 2015 2020 80 100 LIR: S Health Sector Support P146795 SWAP AF 2014 2014 20 20 Total Planned 827.7 170 952.6 Unplanned Projects during the CPS Period CM-Health System P156679 Performance Project 2016 2021 100 LIR: S CM - Multimodal P143801 Transport Project 2014 2021 71 LIR: MU African Higher Education Part of a Center for Excellence regional P126974 Project*** 2014 2020 8 LIR: S project Total Unplanned 179 CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 27 On-going Projects during the Approval Closing Approved CPS/CPSPR Period FY FY Amount CEMAC Transport and Part of a Transit Facilitation regional P079736 Project*** 2007 2016 147 LIR: MU project CM-Agricultural P112635 Competitiveness Project 2009 2017 60 LIR: MS CM-Com Dev Prog Sup P113027 APL-II 2009 2014 40 IEG: MS CM-Transp & Account P084160 CB (FY08) 2008 2013 15 IEG: U CM-Energy Sector P104456 Development SIL (FY08) 2008 2017 65 LIR: S CM-Health Sector Supp. P104525 SWAP SIL (FY08) 2008 2018 25 LIR: S CM-Env. Capacity P109588 Energy SIL (FY08) 2008 2013 20 IEG: U CM-Urban and Water D. P084002 SIL (FY07) 2007 2016 80 IEG: MS CM-Forestry & Env DPL P070656 (FY06) 2006 2012 25 IEG: U P075964 CM-Edu Dev CB (FY05) 2005 2013 18 IEG: MU CM-Com Dev Prog Sup P073629 APL (FY04) 2004 2010 20 IEG: S CM-Douala Infrastructure P074490 (FY03) 2003 2010 56 IEG: S Total On-going 572 Source: Cameroon CPS and PR, WB Business Intelligence Table 2a.1, 2a.4 and 2a.7 as of 12/20/16 * Total approved: $862 million. Calculated as: Total Approved: $952.6 minus PNDP III, FY 16 ($70 million) and Health Sector ($100million), FY 16 plus two unplanned Multimodal and AFR HE ($8m) *** Part of a regional project LIR: Latest internal rating. MU: Moderately Unsatisfactory. MS: Moderately Satisfactory. S: Satisfactory. HS: Highly Satisfactory. CPS/CPSPR was FY10-14. However, lending data covers up to FY16 for information. CLR Review Annexes 28 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 3: Analytical and Advisory Work for Cameroon, FY10-FY16 Fiscal year Proj ID Economic and Sector Work Output Type Delivered Country Economic Memorandum P144132 Cameroon - Country Economic Memorandum FY17 (CEM) P143140 CM--Skills Development FY15 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P143153 CM - Agric Sector Strat Options Analysis FY15 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P123368 CM Country Health Status Report FY14 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P127605 CAMEROON - Policy Notes Work FY14 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P122787 CM-Cross-Border Trade Between Nigeria and CEMAC Countries FY13 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P121291 CM: Marine Fisheries Sector FY12 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P121672 CM Fiscal Decentralization Analysis FY12 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P117757 CM: Social Protection AAA FY11 Other Social Protection Study Proj ID Technical Assistance Fiscal year Output Type P146274 Cameroon Poverty Statistics FY16 Technical Assistance P152596 CM-Proc Quick Wins for CM Cap. Dev. Prog FY16 Technical Assistance P153599 Cameroon textbooks policy note FY16 Technical Assistance P154310 Cameroon MTDS follow up mission FY16 Technical Assistance P107203 Cameroon EITI FY15 Technical Assistance P123672 CM: TFF Douala Trade Single Window FY15 Technical Assistance P132261 CM - TFF - Single Window Payment Systems FY15 Technical Assistance P145573 Land-use Planning Dialogue for REDD+ FY15 Technical Assistance P146242 CSO-Cameroon EITI FY15 Technical Assistance P148262 CMR PFM TA SUPPORT TO PROGRAM BUDGET FY15 Technical Assistance P148739 Housing Finance Diagnostic Review FY15 Technical Assistance P153350 Cameroon - SP policy dialogue FY15 Technical Assistance P121410 CM:Strengn safety net response to crises FY14 Technical Assistance P130893 AgriFin-Cameroon-CamCCul FY14 Technical Assistance P131634 CM Risk Analysis in Customs FY14 Technical Assistance P133674 CM Review of PFM Master Plan FY14 Technical Assistance P129012 CM TA Sanaga Basin Plan FY13 Technical Assistance P145728 CM-GPE Education CSR and ESP FY13 Technical Assistance P117899 Piloting intensification of livestock FY12 Technical Assistance P119798 CM: Support Customs for an Integrity Plan FY12 Technical Assistance P117404 CM: Dev. of Sanitation Strategy -FY11 FY11 Technical Assistance P122165 Reform Plan CAMEROON FY11 Technical Assistance P116709 Cameroun ToT - Financial Analysis Course FY10 Technical Assistance Source: WB Business Intelligence 11/30/16 CLR Review Annexes 29 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 4: Cameroon Grants and Trust Funds Active in FY10-16 Project Approval Closing Approved Project name TF ID Outcome ID FY FY Amount Rating Health System Performance Reinforcement P156679 TF A1706 2016 2017 650,000 Project Agriculture Investment and Market Development P143417 TF A1906 2016 2020 2,700,000 Project Cameroon Health Sector Support Investment P104525 TF 17128 2015 2018 20,000,000 LIR: S (SWAP) CAMEROON--Equity and Quality for Improved P133338 TF 16665 2014 2019 53,300,000 LIR: MS Learning Project Additional Financing to Cameroon Health Sector P146795 TF 16400 2014 2016 850,000 Support Project P124293 CM -- FCPF REDD READINESS TF 15355 2014 2019 3,600,000 P118018 Cameroon: NGOYLA MINTOM PROJECT TF 11856 2013 2017 3,500,000 Support Caisse Autonome d"Amortissement (CAA) P121253 TF 99403 2012 2015 482,000 - Cameroon P121742 Cameroon Phase II: EITI Implemen TF 97366 2011 2012 200,000 P125132 GPF Development Marketplace Partner TF 98783 2011 2013 476,000 P116437 Education for All-Fast Track Initiative TF 97256 2011 2012 24,800,000 IEG: MS P124293 CM -- FCPF REDD READINESS TF 94198 2011 2013 200,000 Support to the Accountancy Profession ONECCA P106778 TF 97049 2010 2014 499,400 CAMEROON Development Marketplace for the African Diaspora P115788 TF 93981 2009 2011 33,874 in Europe Winning Projects Cameroon Mineral Sector Institutional Capacity P110924 TF 92307 2009 2012 454,283 Building Project CAMEROON WATER AFFERMAGE - OBA for P106794 TF 91503 2008 2014 2,250,000 Coverage Expansion CAMEROON WATER AFFERMAGE - OBA for P106794 TF 91509 2008 2014 3,000,000 Coverage Expansion AVIAN AND HUMAN INFLUENZA PREVENTION P105910 TF 91093 2008 2011 1,270,000 AND CONTROL IN CAMEROON P099682 CM-Cities Alliance Douala Dev Strategy TF 57223 2007 2011 460,000 Sustainable Agro-Pastoral and Land Management P089289 TF 56925 2007 2012 6,000,000 IEG: S Promotion under the PNDP Cameroon Forest & Environment Sector P073020 TF 56544 2006 2012 10,000,000 IEG: U Program (FESP) Total 134,725,557 Source: Client Connection as of 11/30/16 ** IEG Validates RETF that are 5M and above CLR Review Annexes 30 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 5: IEG Project Ratings for Cameroon, FY10-16 Total Exit IEG Risk to Proj ID Project name Evaluate IEG Outcome FY DO d ($M) * 2010 P073629 CM-Com Dev Prog Sup APL (FY04) 20.6 SATISFACTORY SIGNIFICANT 2010 P074490 CM-Douala Infrastructure (FY03) 66.2 SATISFACTORY MODERATE 2012 P070656 CM-Forestry & Env DPL (FY06) 10.0 UNSATISFACTORY HIGH 2012 P073020 CM GEF Forest & Env DPL (FY06) 12.6 UNSATISFACTORY HIGH CM-EFA-FTI: SUPPORT TO MODERATELY SATISFACTORY SIGNIFICANT 2012 P116437 EDUCATION SECTOR 24.6 MODERATELY SIGNIFICANT 2013 P075964 CM-Edu Dev CB (FY05) 13.8 UNSATISFACTORY 2013 P084160 CM-Transp & Account CB (FY08) 3.7 UNSATISFACTORY SIGNIFICANT 2013 P109588 CM-Env. Capacity Energy SIL (FY08) 6.2 UNSATISFACTORY HIGH MODERATELY SIGNIFICANT 2014 P106794 GPOBA W3: Cameroon Water 1.8 UNSATISFACTORY 2014 P113027 CM-Com Dev Prog Sup APL-II 39.5 MODERATELY SATISFACTORY SIGNIFICANT 2016 P084002 CM-Urban and Water D. SIL (FY07) 90.9 MODERATELY SATISFACTORY HIGH Total 289.9 Source: AO Key IEG Ratings as of 11/30/16 P089289 Not included on the extract * Funded from both IDA and Trust Fund CLR Review Annexes 31 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 6: IEG Project Ratings for Cameroon and Comparators, FY10-16 RDO % RDO % Total Total Outcome Outcome Moderate or Moderate or Region Evaluated Evaluated ($M) % Sat ($) % Sat (No) Lower Lower (No) Sat ($) Sat (No) Cameroon 250.9 12 86.6 50.0 26.4 16.7 AFR 25,650.8 522 70.5 66.0 36.5 34.7 World 152,703.9 1,722 82.9 71.1 60.8 48.5 Advisory Services Approved pre-FY10 but active during FY10-16 Primary Impl Impl Project Total Funds, Project ID Project Name Business Start FY End FY Status US$ Line AfDB Growth Oriented Women 557187 Enterprises in Cameroon Guarantee 2008 2010 CLOSED SBA 427,237 and Advisory Services Program Sub-Total 427,237 TOTAL 7,046,950 Source: IFC AS Data as of 7-31-16; FIG: Financial Institutions Group; MAS: Manufacturing‚ Agribusiness and Services; FAM: Finance and Markets; TAC: Trade and Competitiveness * With IEG new methodology for evaluating projects, institutional development impact and sustainability are no longer rated separately. CLR Review Annexes 32 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 7: Portfolio Status for Cameroon and Comparators, FY10-16 Ave Fiscal year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 FY10-16 Cameroon # Proj 12 15 16 15 13 14 15 14 # Proj At Risk 4 4 8 7 8 5 6 6 % Proj At Risk 33.3 26.7 50.0 46.7 61.5 35.7 40.0 42.0 Net Comm Amt 400.7 483.6 583.3 692.7 754.7 854.7 932.8 672 Comm At Risk 83.2 136.0 311.9 374.2 495.4 283.4 234.5 274 % Commit at Risk 20.8 28.1 53.5 54.0 65.6 33.2 25.1 40.8 AFR # Proj 597 644 627 566 620 643 659 622 # Proj At Risk 152 133 127 128 138 136 144 137 % Proj At Risk 25.5 20.7 20.3 22.6 22.3 21.2 21.9 22.0 Net Comm Amt 35,438.5 38,884.9 40,416.8 42,649.1 49,142.6 54,586.3 59,033.9 45,736 Comm At Risk 9,703.1 8,269.7 6,504.6 14,310.8 16,548.2 16,000.3 18,949.8 12,898 % Commit at Risk 27.4 21.3 16.1 33.6 33.7 29.3 32.1 28.2 World # Proj 1,990 2,059 2,029 1,964 2,048 2,022 1,975 2,012 # Proj At Risk 410 382 387 414 412 444 422 410 % Proj At Risk 20.6 18.6 19.1 21.1 20.1 22.0 21.4 20.4 Net Comm Amt 162,975.3 171,755.3 173,706.1 176,202.6 192,610.1 201,045.2 220,331.5 185,518 Comm At Risk 28,963.1 23,850.0 24,465.0 40,805.6 40,933.5 45,987.7 44,244.9 35,607 % Commit at Risk 17.8 13.9 14.1 23.2 21.3 22.9 20.1 19.2 Source: WB BI as of 11/30/16 CLR Review Annexes 33 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 8: Disbursement Ratio for the Cameroon, FY10-16 Overall Fiscal Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Result Cameroon Disbursement Ratio (%) 11.8 10.6 18.8 23.4 16.9 22.8 23.9 18.9 Inv Disb in FY 39.1 35.5 68.8 107.3 80.3 108.7 109.9 549.7 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY 330.3 334.2 366.1 457.9 475.6 477.2 459.9 2,901.3 AFR Disbursement Ratio (%) 24.0 19.4 21.4 22.5 23.1 24.5 19.6 22.0 Inv Disb in FY 4,251.0 4,703.1 5,260.3 5,652.1 6,143.9 6,473.2 5,572.5 38,056.1 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY 17,704.1 24,298.4 24,595.0 25,175.9 26,540.4 26,463.6 28,377.1 173,154.5 World Disbursement Ratio (%) 26.9 22.4 20.8 20.6 20.8 21.8 19.5 21.6 Inv Disb in FY 20,928.8 20,933.4 21,048.2 20,510.7 20,757.7 21,853.7 21,152.9 147,185.4 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY 77,760.8 93,516.5 101,234.3 99,588.3 99,854.3 100,344.9 108,600.3 680,899.4 * Calculated as IBRD/IDA Disbursements in FY / Opening Undisbursed Amount at FY. Restricted to Lending Instrument Type = Investment. AO disbursement ratio table as of 11/30/16 Annex Table 9: Net Disbursement and Charges for Cameroon, FY10-16 Period Disb. Amt. Repay Amt. Net Amt. Charges Fees Net Transfer FY10 85,739,975.2 6,969,765.1 78,770,210.1 1,400,307.3 1,779,712.4 75,590,190.4 FY11 78,010,087.2 7,699,413.2 70,310,674.0 1,156,386.2 2,563,906.5 66,590,381.4 FY12 78,464,458.4 8,089,920.5 70,374,537.9 912,352.8 2,956,638.2 66,505,546.9 FY13 139,844,444.8 9,591,680.5 130,252,764.4 668,696.6 4,265,324.1 125,318,743.7 FY14 134,543,869.0 9,626,934.0 124,916,935.0 425,564.9 5,029,840.0 119,461,530.1 FY15 121,274,262.5 9,757,689.3 111,516,573.2 182,770.5 5,497,509.5 105,836,293.2 FY16 115,037,499.0 4,538,603.3 110,498,895.7 151,684.4 6,425,474.4 103,921,736.9 Report Total 752,914,596.1 56,274,005.9 696,640,590.2 4,897,762.6 28,518,405.1 663,224,422.5 World Bank Client Connection 10/21/16 Annexes CLR Review 34 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 10: List of IFC Investments in Cameroon (US$ ,000) Investments Committed in FY10-FY16 Equity Institution Greenfield Project Net Net Loan Risk Project ID Cmt FY Primary Sector Name Net Comm Risk Number Code Size Loan Equity Rating Rating 28098 630185 2016 Finance & Insurance G 15,000 15,000 - 15,000 5B 34915 806500 2015 Agriculture and Forestry E 4,278 4,278 - 4,278 3B 34916 803631 2015 Agriculture and Forestry E 4,266 4,266 - 4,266 3A 34471 776784 2014 Electric Power G 8,000 8,000 - 8,000 4B 35284 566673 2014 Finance & Insurance E 287 287 287 6 25978 619652 2012 Electric Power G 511,978 51,529 - 51,529 4B 31582 710087 2012 Finance & Insurance E 5,000 5,000 - 5,000 4A 27995 521181 2010 Finance & Insurance E 12,000 16,000 - 16,000 5B 28529 660173 2010 Electric Power G 115,517 26,974 - 26,974 3B 28659 534023 2010 Chemicals E 1,504 1,516 - 1,516 6 Sub-Total 677,828 132,562 287 132,849 Investments Committed pre-FY10 but active during FY10-16 Equity Institution CMT Greenfield Project Net Net Loan Risk Project ID Primary Sector Name Net Comm Risk Number FY Code Size Loan Equity Rating Rating 27966 630227 2009 Finance & Insurance G 1,073 913 913 5B 27993 566673 2009 Finance & Insurance E 451 451 451 6 25392 566673 2008 Finance & Insurance G 5,442 1,396 381 1,777 6 11579 54265 2006 Electric Power E 500,669 89,355 - 89,355 5A Sub-Total 507,636 90,751 1,746 92,497 TOTAL 1,185,464 223,313 2,032 225,345 Source: IFC-MIS Extract as of end July 31, 2016 CLR Review Independent Evaluation Group Annexes 35 Annex Table 11: List of IFC Advisory Services for Cameroon (US$) Advisory Services Approved in FY10-16 Impl Impl Primary Project Project Total Funds, Project Name Start End Business ID Status US$ FY FY Line 600986 Afriland First Bank Cmr AS SME 2016 2018 ACTIVE FIG 582,433 601329 Cargill Cocoa - Cameroon 2016 2020 ACTIVE MAS 974,378 599800 Advans Cameroon MCF Cohort TA 2015 2019 ACTIVE FIG 1,333,287 600343 CEMAC - Credit Reporting Project 2014 2018 ACTIVE FAM 818,548 Cameroon Investment Climate Reform 594287 2013 2017 ACTIVE TAC 1,698,387 Program 572947 CommDev FEDEC Cty Invest 2012 2014 CLOSED SBA 274,062 571667 EB-Accion CMR TA 2010 2014 CLOSED A2F 938,618 Sub-Total 6,619,713 Advisory Services Approved pre-FY10 but active during FY10-16 Impl Impl Primary Project Project Total Funds, Project Name Start End Business ID Status US$ FY FY Line AfDB Growth Oriented Women Enterprises in 557187 Cameroon Guarantee and Advisory Services 2008 2010 CLOSED SBA 427,237 Program Sub-Total 427,237 TOTAL 7,046,950 Source: IFC AS Data as of 7-31-16; FIG: Financial Institutions Group; MAS: Manufacturing‚ Agribusiness and Services; FAM: Finance and Markets; TAC: Trade and Competitiveness Annex Table 12: IFC net commitment activity in FY10 - FY16 Pre-FY10 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total Financial Markets 3,141,578 286,718 3,428,295 Trade Finance (TF) 16,000,000 5,000,000 15,000,000 36,000,000 MAS 1,516,154 8,543,433 10,059,587 Infrastructure 89,355,000 26,973,828 51,528,773 8,000,000 175,857,602 Total 92,496,578 44,489,982 56,528,773 8,286,718 8,543,433 15,000,000 225,345,484 CLR Review Independent Evaluation Group Annexes 36 Annex Table 13: List of MIGA Activities (US$ millions) Max Project ID Contract Enterprise FY Sector Investor Gross Status Issuance 12242 Kribi Power Development Corporation 2014 Active Power Netherlands 78.2 Dibamba Power Development 12218 2014 Power Netherlands 31.5 Corporation Active 12214 ENEO Cameroon 2014 Active Power Netherlands 180.0 10072 HTT Telecom S.A. 2012 Active Telecommunications Switzerland 6.5 Total 296.2 Source: MIGA 12/19/16 Annex Table 14: Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance and Official Aid for Cameroon Development Partners 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Australia 0.32 0.69 2.65 1.44 0.83 .. Austria 0.34 0.32 0.4 0.25 0.28 .. Belgium 4.25 4.61 2.36 4.84 9.56 .. Canada 7.2 12.23 5.02 2.65 2.53 .. Czech Republic 0.07 0.06 0.04 0.05 0.02 .. Denmark 0.21 0.11 .. 0.59 .. .. Finland 0.42 0.45 0.29 0.37 2.54 .. France 82.08 148.93 88.51 172.04 167.11 .. Germany 90.53 97.08 88.84 83.76 87.39 .. Greece 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.14 0.13 0.1 Ireland 0.37 0.52 0.85 0.63 0.76 .. Italy 4.3 3.89 1.86 2.74 3.09 .. Japan 42.03 24.01 16 41.32 25.05 .. Korea 2.57 4.3 15.51 7.18 11.36 .. Luxembourg 0.24 0.45 0.44 0.6 0.54 .. Netherlands 0.17 .. .. .. .. .. New Zealand .. .. .. .. 0.03 .. Norway 0.4 0.5 0.83 1.14 1.06 .. Poland 0.11 0.16 0.06 0.04 0.02 .. Portugal .. .. 0.01 0 0.03 .. Spain 9.04 4.17 0.42 -0.53 -0.03 .. Sweden 0.62 1.76 1.92 1.67 2.22 1.67 Switzerland 2.22 1.86 2.65 2.97 3.21 .. United Kingdom 1.03 0.82 1.96 1.32 88.15 .. United States 18.38 19.32 26.72 36.48 40.65 .. CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 37 DAC Countries, Total 267.06 326.39 257.47 361.69 446.53 1.77 African Development Bank [AfDB] 3.69 .. .. .. .. .. African Development Fund [AfDF] 57.55 34.69 75.36 37.74 68.52 .. Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa [BADEA] -0.1 -1.16 1.04 4.76 1.99 .. EU Institutions [EU] 74.22 56.94 99.28 85.56 124.81 .. Food and Agriculture Organisation [FAO] .. .. .. 0.49 .. .. Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization [GAVI] 11.92 25.83 22.98 23.12 20.87 30.29 Global Environment Facility [GEF] 3.58 0.83 1.61 0.57 1.23 .. Global Fund 11.98 73.27 19.85 39.19 21.7 62.46 International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA] 0.64 0.21 0.16 0.32 0.27 0.22 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development [IBRD] .. .. .. .. .. .. International Development Association [IDA] 82.82 73.02 87.77 157.81 125.53 .. IFAD 3.11 1.6 4.68 5.57 7 .. International Finance Corporation [IFC] .. .. .. .. .. .. International Labour Organisation [ILO] .. .. 0.98 1.08 .. .. IMF (Concessional Trust Funds) .. -1.26 -2.44 -3.63 -5.24 -31.18 Islamic Development Bank [IsDB] 2.17 -1.47 9.74 10.57 8.63 .. OPEC Fund for International Development [OFID] -1.34 -1.61 0.56 2.06 4.71 .. UNAIDS 0.54 0.71 0.72 1.37 1.01 0.96 UNDP 3.87 2.29 1.81 2.21 1.88 1.97 UNFPA 4.1 3.61 2.88 3.9 3.26 3.06 UNHCR 3.35 .. 0.14 .. .. 3.3 UNICEF 6.4 6.84 5.98 6.68 9.09 10.26 WFP 5.16 9.25 5.82 4.51 2.17 4.76 World Health Organisation [WHO] .. 1.46 1.1 1.46 1.16 1.82 Multilateral, Total 273.66 285.05 340.02 385.34 398.59 87.92 Hungary 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.06 .. .. Israel 0.2 0.27 0.18 0.11 0.09 0.1 Kuwait (KFAED) -0.8 -1.2 -1.54 -1.06 -1.45 -1.39 Lithuania 0.01 .. .. .. .. .. Romania .. 0.16 0.22 0.16 0.01 0.04 Russia .. .. 0.06 .. 6.32 0.15 Thailand .. .. .. .. .. 0.01 Turkey 0.45 0.42 0.47 2.46 1.98 .. United Arab Emirates 0.3 0.24 0.22 0.16 0.22 .. Non-DAC Countries, Total 0.2 -0.07 -0.34 1.89 7.17 -1.09 Development Partners Total 540.92 611.37 597.15 748.92 852.29 88.6 CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 38 Annex Table 15: Economic and Social Indicators for Cameroon, 2010 – 2015 Series Name 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Growth and Inflation GDP growth (annual %) 3.3 4.1 4.6 5.6 5.9 6.2 GDP per capita growth (annual %) 0.7 1.5 2.0 2.9 3.3 3.6 GNI per capita, PPP (current international $) 2,490.0 2,580.0 2,670.0 2,780.0 2,960.0 3,080.0 GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$) (Millions) 1,170.0 1,210.0 1,230.0 1,290.0 1,350.0 1,330.0 Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) 1.3 2.9 2.9 1.9 1.9 2.7 Composition of GDP (%) Agriculture, value added (% of GDP) 23.4 23.6 23.2 22.9 22.2 23.9 Industry, value added (% of GDP) 29.9 29.6 30.2 29.9 30.1 27.8 Services, etc., value added (% of GDP) 46.7 46.9 46.6 47.2 47.8 48.2 Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP) 19.0 20.6 19.2 19.4 20.5 21.0 Gross domestic savings (% of GDP) 13.4 12.5 11.6 11.3 11.3 12.6 External Accounts Exports of goods and services (% of GDP) 17.3 18.4 18.8 20.7 21.7 17.0 Imports of goods and services (% of GDP) 23.0 26.5 26.6 28.9 31.2 25.9 Current account balance (% of GDP) (3.6) (2.8) (3.6) (3.8) .. .. External debt stocks (% of GNI) 13.7 11.8 14.4 16.9 16.4 .. Total debt service (% of GNI) 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.8 1.4 .. Total reserves in months of imports 6.5 4.4 4.6 4.3 .. .. Fiscal Accounts /1 General government revenue (% of GDP) 16.582 17.936 17.949 17.954 18.109 17.858 General government total expenditure (% of GDP) 17.667 20.534 19.54 21.906 22.747 20.54 General government net lending/borrowing (% of GDP) -1.085 -2.598 -1.59 -3.951 -4.638 -2.682 General government gross debt (% of GDP) 11.527 13.245 15.429 18.657 27.543 29.015 Health Life expectancy at birth, total (years) 53.7 54.1 54.6 55.0 55.5 .. CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 39 Series Name 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Immunization, DPT (% of children ages 12- 23 months) 84.0 82.0 85.0 89.0 87.0 84.0 Improved sanitation facilities (% of population with access) 44.7 44.9 45.2 45.4 45.6 45.8 Improved water source (% of population with access) 50.2 51.0 51.9 52.7 52.7 52.7 Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) 66.2 64.4 62.4 60.4 58.6 57.1 Education School enrollment, preprimary (% gross) 25.3 26.7 29.8 .. 34.4 .. School enrollment, primary (% gross) 106.2 105.9 110.8 .. 113.6 .. School enrollment, secondary (% gross) .. 47.3 50.5 52.3 56.4 .. Population Population, total (Millions) 20,590,666 21,119,065 21,659,488 22,211,166 22,773,014 23,344,179 Population growth (annual %) 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Urban population (% of total) 51.5 52.1 52.7 53.3 53.8 54.4 Source: DDP as of 10/21/16 *International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2016 ** IMF estimates start after 2014