54511 2010 / 2010 / ( ) (Elena Ianchovichina) Ani) (Subika Farazi) (Nadia Spivak) (Kevin Carey) (Lili Mottaghi) .(Silwal ( ) (Shamshad Akhtar) . .( ) ( Ritva Reinikka) .(Mustapha Rouis) ( Farrukh Iqbal) (Roberto Rocha) : . . ( ) . .( ) Washington, D.C. / 2010 © 1818H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433 202­473­1000 : www.worldbank.org : feedback@worldbank.org : . . . . . / . . Copyright Clearance) : .www.copyright.com 978-750-4470 : 978-750-8400 : (Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA 1818H Street, N W, Washington, DC: .pubrights@worldbank.org : 202­522­2422 : ,20433, USA Gettyimages © : iv v 1 : 1 2 4 4 5 7 : 7 8 12 12 14 15 : 15 15 16 17 19 : MENA Bbl MNSED BOP ( ) / Bps/bp 500 MSCI CAB NPL () CPI OECD CDS () OPEC ( ) DECPG PPP DEV SA DFSF SAAR DW SME EAP SSA ECA SWF EIU UAE EU UK FDI () UNCTAD GCC UNWTO G3 .U.S GDP WBG HIY WDI ILO WTO IMF LAC 2010 2009 2010 . 2011­2010 2010 ( ) 2009 . 2010 2009 2010 2009 13 2010 : vi : :1 (percent) 2008 7.0 2008 2009 () 6.0 5.0 . 4.0 3.0 . 2.0 2009 1.0 .(1 ) 0.0 2009 2008 . .2009 : (1 ) 2009 2007 :2 (% changes) ) 0 .(2 ­20 ­40 ­60 1 ­80 (2) (3 ) ­100 . ­120 ­140 0.8 2008 6 ­160 .2009 ­180 ­200 . : :1 % ­7.8 2.2 4.3 2.5 4.4 5.6 2007 ­5.5 2.7 2.8 2.2 3.3 5.4 2008 ­1.0 ­1.0 0.7 2.0 1.5 2.2 2009f ­3.3 1.4 1.8 1.9 2.6 4.4 2010f 2010 2009 : 2 :4 :3 (Index, 2007M10 = 100) (Index, 2004 = 100) 180 200 160 180 140 160 120 140 100 120 80 60 100 40 80 2007M10 2007M12 2008M2 2008M4 2008M6 2008M8 2008M10 2008M12 2009M2 2009M4 2009M6 2009M8 2009M10 2009M12 2010M2 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 . : . : ( %) :5 (% of GDP) 2.9 . .2009 2.2 2008 25 2008 2009 () 20 15 ( ) 10 . 5 2009 5 0 . ­5 .2009 : . .2009 4.8 2008 7 :6 (% of GDP) (4 ) 28 .(5 ) 2008 2009 () 23 18 . 13 8 3 ­2 2009 2008 ­7 (1 ) .(6 5 . : . 2009 3 : ( ) . (6 ) .(5 ) . 400 . . 1 2. .6(8 ) 3 . (7 ) 2009 / 2008 / :8 4 .2009 (US$ billion) . 500 2009 2007 450 400 . 350 .52008 30­20 300 250 200 150 100 . 50 0 02-/ 03-/ 04-/ 00-/ 01-/ 04-/ 00-/ 01-/ 03-/ 05 -/ 06-/ 07-/ 08-/ 09-/ 02-/ 05-/ 06 -/ 07-/ 08-/ 09-/ . . : ) :7 ( 60 2008­2003 23 1 50 122) 40 .(2008 . 2008­2005 30 :) .( :2010 20 2 . 10 3 . 0 06 / 06 / 06 / 06 / 06 / 06 / 07 / 07 / 07 / 07 / 07 / 07 / 08 / 08 / 08 / 08 / 08 / 08 / 09 / 09 / 09 / 09 / 09 / 09 / 2.5 25 2008 4 .2009 :2010 : 5 . 6 . » . : « » « . . 2010 / : 4 :9 (% change in values) 35 30 25 .(1 ) 20 5 15 . 2009 10 5 0 . ­5 ­10 ­15 . ­20 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 : .2011 2010 2009 . :10 (% change) .(7 ) 55 45 35 . 25 . 15 . 20 5 ­5 ­15 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 : .2011 2010 2009 2009 4.8 2008 6.8 . 30 100 . (9 ) 2009 13 . 8.4 .(10 ) . . 2009 . 100 80 5 : . . . . . . . . . . . 7 .() 4 .2009 1 . (10 9 ) 2009 1000 . . .2008 . . 2009 . . .(10 9 ) 12 2008 2009 . 15 .(10 ) .(10 ) . . . 2.6 8. 2011 9 17 2005 . . . « » 7 .(2009) : 8 . . 1.25 5 2005 9 . 2010 / : 6 . 2.5 . . : ) .(12 . 2010 4.4 . 1 . .2009 .2010 (11 ) 2010 / .(13 ) .2009 V . .(11 ) 2010 / 64 .(14 ) . .(15 ) . :12 (US$ billions) V :11 , (real GDP % change quarter-on-quarter) 400 1997 2002 2007 200 15 0 10 ­200 ­400 5 ­600 0 ­800 ( ) ­5 ­10 2006Q1 2006Q3 2007Q1 2007Q3 2008Q1 2008Q3 2009Q1 2009Q3 2010Q1 . : : : 8 :15 :13 (percent difference from peak to February 2010) (percent) 20 100.0 15 80.0 10 60.0 5 40.0 20.0 0 0.0 ­5 ­20.0 ­10 ­40.0 ­15 ­60.0 25 ­80.0 ­20 ­100.0 09-/ 09-/ 09-/ 09-/ 09-/ 09-/ 09-/ 09-/ 09- / 09-/ 09-/ 09- / 10-/ .Datastream : .( ) : :14 (percent) (4 ) 100.0 . 80.0 60.0 . 2009 40.0 20.0 . 0.0 ­20.0 1.9 ­40.0 2010 / ­60.0 ­80.0 . 1.7 ­100.0 09-/ 09-/ 09-/ 09-/ 09-/ 09-/ 09-/ 09-/ 09-/ 09-/ 09- / 09- / 10-/ 85 75 11 . .( ) : . 10. 2010 . 2010 3.6 .(15 14 ) 2010 .(16 ) .(2010) : 10 11 57 90 111 . . . 9 : :18 :16 (percent of GDP) (percentage point change) 18 5.0 2009e 2010p 2011p 2009e 2010p 2011p 4.0 13 3.0 2.0 1.0 8 0.0 ­1.0 3 ­2.0 ­3.0 ­2 ­4.0 ­5.0 ­7 ­6.0 2009 : : .2011 2010 .2011 2010 2009 :19 :17 (percent of GDP) (percent) 12 6.0 2009e 2010p 2011p 2009e 2010p 2011p 10 8 5.0 6 4.0 4 2 3.0 0 2.0 ­2 ­4 1.0 ­6 ­8 0.0 2009 : 2009 : .2011 2010 .2011 2010 4.9 2010 4.4 . .(17 ) 2011 .(21 ) (20) .(19 18 ) .(22 ) . 12 . .(1 ) :2010 : 12 . 2009 2010 / : 10 :1 2009 (" .Dubai Inc") (DFSF) 2009 / . . 10 20 . 6 2009 / / 14 3.5 . (Deloitte) . / 14 . 5 3.5) 10 5 . ( . .2010 / 9 20 5 . 2011 2010 . 8 60 40 . . . / . . . . . . . . . . : 11 : :22 :20 (2008 = / 1) (bps) 140 120 ( ) 800 100 700 80 600 500 60 400 40 300 20 200 100 0 1/1/2008 3/1/2008 5/1/2008 7/1/2008 9/1/2008 11/1/2008 1/1/2009 3/1/2009 5/1/2009 7/1/2009 9/1/2009 11/1/2009 2/1/2010 3/1/2010 0 09 / 07 / 07 / 10 / 07 / 07 / 07 / 07 / 08 / 08 / 09 / 09 / 09 / 08 / 08 / 08 / 08 / 09 / 09 / 10 / . Thompson/datastream: .Datastream : .(21 ) . :21 . 600 .(22 ) 500 400 300 .(7 ) 200 100 2009 2008 0 07 / 08 / 07 / 07 / 07 / 08 / 08 / 08 / 09 / 08 / 09 / 09 / 09 / 07 / 09 / 09 / 10 / 10 / 07 / 08 / 13. 2009 . .Datastream : . -- . -- . . . :2010 : 13 . .(20 ) 2010 / : 12 2005 .2010 -- -- 75 5 6.5 -- 15. -- . 2010 4.2 . 2011­2010 .2011 (2 ) . . -- -- 75 .(2 ) 91 . 1.7 14 . 2010 . . :2 0.11 0.85 0.03 0.06 0.93 0.01 0.11 0.83 0.06 0.09 0.90 0.01 0.18 0.76 0.07 (16 ) 2009 0.04 0.91 0.05 .(17 ) 2011 5.2 2010 4.5 0.02 0.97 0.01 0.09 0.86 0.05 0.00 0.99 0.01 . * 0.05 0.95 0.01 0.08 0.75 0.17 4.4 0.03 0.92 0.05 .2007 6.5 1999­1996 0.65 0.12 0.23 . 0.35 0.44 0.21 0.81 0.01 0.18 . 0.66 0.02 0.32 0.66 0.03 0.31 0.79 0.10 0.11 ." 2010 " : : 14 .2010 : 15 13 : :23 (percent change in values) 10 2009 2010 2011 5 . 0 2.5 4.3 2010 5 . 1.3 .(23 ) ­10 ­15 ­20 2009 . : . .2011 2010 . . 18. . . . . . . . 8 . . . . . 2008­2001 20.1 . 16. . . . 17 . 1.3 . 16 .2011 3.4 2010 . : 17 . 11 : 18 2010 / : 14 . . . . . . (19 ) ( ) . . . 6 . 100 . . 2009 . . . ) . . ( . . . . . . : :24 (%, annual averages) 10.0 ) 8.0 19. (24 6.0 4.0 2.0 . 0.0 11 ­2.0 25 24­15 ­4.0 . ­6.0 ­8.0 1990­1994 1995­1999 2000­2004 2005­2008 : . . . . . . 20 . . . . . . . 19 . . 20 . : 16 . . . . . 2009 30 . 90 " " . . . . . . . (Bazel II) 2 . . . . -- -- .(20 ) .(FSB) . . . . . . . . . . . 17 : :25 ( ) . - .( ) 20% 18% . 16% 14% 12% ) 10% .( ) ( 8% 6% 4% . 2% 21 . 0% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 .«» : . 22 . . . . . . . . . . . 1 (25 ) 30 . .2006­1990 2.8 . . : 21 : (2009) : 22 . . 2010 / : 18 . . . . 24. . 23. . . . . . . : (2009) : 23 . :(2000) : 24 ) . .(Dutch disease 2011 2010 2009 2008 2011 2010 2009 2008 2011 2010 2009 2008 6.8 6.1 2.5 15.9 4.0 1.6 ­1.9 13.2 4.8 4.4 2.2 5.4 9.5 8.8 4.2 19.6 6.5 3.7 ­0.9 16.6 4.6 4.3 1.3 4.9 15.2 12.2 5.7 25.1 10.8 6.6 0.5 25.3 4.9 4.4 0.8 6.2 6.1 3.6 1.6 10.6 ­1.5 ­4.3 ­7.6 8.0 3.9 3.5 2.6 6.1 37.1 29.9 19.2 44.7 22.8 17.3 9.0 25.8 4.4 2.3 ­1.2 6.4 3.3 2.6 ­2.2 9.1 7.6 6.9 2.2 13.9 4.7 4.8 3.6 12.3 30.8 22.7 15.7 33.0 13.3 8.9 11.8 12.0 14.3 18.5 9.0 15.8 10.5 8.4 5.5 28.6 6.0 1.2 ­4.6 33.0 4.1 3.9 0.1 4.4 7.7 7.3 ­2.7 8.8 13.5 9.8 0.4 20.5 3.1 0.6 ­0.7 5.1 1.1 3.7 2.4 11.9 0.2 ­0.5 ­2.8 4.3 4.2 4.2 2.2 2.9 5.3 3.9 0.9 20.1 ­5.4 ­6.6 ­8.4 8.1 4.1 4.6 2.1 2.4 1.6 2.4 2.6 7.2 ­1.3 ­1.4 ­2.7 0.0 3.2 3.0 1.8 2.3 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 7.9 7.3 4.2 9.5 0.0 23.5 16.8 40.7 17.7 15.8 10.6 24.6 6.2 5.4 2.1 3.8 ­3.5 ­3.9 ­4.5 ­3.6 ­3.4 ­4.4 ­5.5 ­2.8 5.5 5.0 4.0 5.2 ­1.5 ­3.5 ­6.1 ­4.6 ­2.8 ­7.5 ­8.4 ­4.5 4.4 7.9 3.8 3.6 ­4.5 ­5.0 ­4.7 ­4.1 ­6.4 ­7.0 ­5.7 ­4.8 5.2 4.5 4.8 6.8 ­14.9 ­14.9 ­13.4 ­16.8 ­8.3 ­9.1 ­9.7 ­9.8 5.5 5.2 6.1 8.7 : ­19.5 ­13.7 ­19.9 ­39.2 ­0.5 ­0.9 ­2.8 1.3 5.4 4.5 5.0 5.8 ­10.5 ­10.1 ­5.6 ­11.3 ­7.8 ­7.3 ­11.0 ­9.4 4.5 3.9 2.8 7.9 ­17.9 ­18.3 ­18.5 ­20.1 ­9.2 ­10.7 ­9.1 ­10.5 6.0 6.0 8.0 9.3 ­2.7 ­3.3 ­3.3 ­1.9 ­6.0 ­6.7 ­5.1 ­3.9 5.2 4.4 4.6 6.5 ­1.9 ­2.7 ­2.3 0.5 ­8.1 ­8.4 ­6.9 ­6.9 5.5 5.0 4.7 7.2 ­4.3 ­4.8 ­5.4 ­5.2 ­2.9 ­4.6 ­2.2 0.4 4.4 3.0 5.0 5.6 ­3.2 ­2.9 ­2.8 ­4.2 ­3.3 ­3.5 ­3.3 ­1.2 5.0 4.0 3.1 4.5 . : 2010 /