FILE COPY DOCUMENT OF INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT Not For Public Use Report No. P-1635-GR REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED LOAN TO THE HELLENIC STATE FOR A THIRD EDUCATION PROJECT May 21, 1975 This report was prepared for official use only by the Bank Group. It may not be published, quoted or cited without Bank Group authorization. The Bank Group does not accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the report. Currency Unit = Drachma 1953 - March 9, 1975: Dr. 1 = US$).03 US$1 Dr. 30 Dr. ,000 = US$33.33 Dr. 1,000,000 US$33,333.33 Since March 10, 1975: The Greek Drachma has been redefined in terms of a basket of currencies including the U.S. dollar and those of its other major trading partners, and is floating. Fiscal Year - January 1 to December 31 Abbreviations: KATE Higher Technical Education Center L.A. Loan Agreement INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED LOAN TO THE HELLENIC STATE FOR A THIRD EDUCATION PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed loan to the Hellenic State for the equivalent of US$45 million to help finance the foreign exchange cost of an education project. The loan would have a term of 15 years including 5 years of grace, with interest at 8-1/2 percent per annum. PART I - THE ECONOMY 2. An economic report entitled "Current Economic.Position and Prospects of Greece" (EMA-49a), dated March 22, 1972, was distributed to the Executive Directors on March 31, 1972. An economic updating mission visited Greece in January 1975 and is preparing its report; its findings are reflected in the following paragraphs. Country data sheets are attached as Annex I. 3. Following the Cyprus crisis in July 1974, the seven-year old mili- tary regime was replaced by an interim civilian Government. In November 1974, an elected Government, backed by a large parliamentary majority, was estab- lished. In December 1974, the Greeks voted to establish a republic. The new Government has been largely preoccupied with foreign policy issues, especially relations with Turkey, and with economic issues, particularly the need to re- store and broaden economic relations with the world at large and with the EEC, as well as inflation, a growing balance of payments deficit and stagnating economic activity. 4. Throughout the 1960's and up to 1972, the Greek economy enjoyed rapid GDP growth averaging 8 percent per year in real terns, with the main stimulus coming from rapidly rising domestic demand stemming from large in- creases in private fixed investment - especially in housing - and public in- frastructure investment. Private consumption rose at a rate of 8 percent per annum and gross fixed capital formation at 11 percent over this period. This growth was associated with relatively stable prices. However, by the end of 1972, as the economy reached full employment, supply constraints began to develop and domestic prices came under increasing pressure. The inflationary trend was reinforced by the termination of price controls in 1973 and by increases in import prices, particularly of petroleum (after October 1973), higher agriculture support prices, and increased Government expenditures. Consumer prices, which had increased by less than 3 percent per annum (on an annual average basis) in the previous five years, rose 16 percent in 1973 and 27 percent in 1974; but Government measures, including reduced budgetary out- lays and restrictive monetary policies, reduced the increase in the second half of 1974 to only -5 percent. However, these restrictive policies, together - 2 - with the impact of the Cyprus crisis and resulting domestic political un- certainties, severely affected economic growth. GDP increased by 9 percent in 1973, but declined by about 1 percent in 1974. GNP per capita in 1974 (Atlas basis) is estimated at about $1,7B0. 5. Agriculture still accounts for about 20 percent of GDP, 40 percent of employment and 35 percent of all exports, besides providing raw materials for the food processing and textile industries. Agricultural production has increased by 5 percent per annum since 1968, somewhat below overall GDP growth, but dropped in 1973. Following an increase in support prices in October 1973, and with favorable climatic conditions, output increased by a record 13 percent in 1974. Growth in agriculture continues to be hampered by insufficient development of irrigation, the small size and fragmented nature of farm holdings, and inadequate extension services. 6. Industry has been the mest dynamic sector, with an average annual growth of nearly 10 percent between 1968 and 1974; industrial value added increased by 13 percent in 1973, but dropped almost 6 percent in 1974. There was an increase in industry's share of GDP from nearly 29 to 32 percent. The share of manufactured goods in total exports also increased sharply, from 25 percent in 1968 to an estimated 45 percent in 1974, largely as a result of increased capacity in the chemical and basic metal industries. Despite rising productivity, however, Greek industrial growth is still restricted by a small domestic market, limited export orientation, inappropriate plant size and heavy dependence on capital goods imports. The Government emphasis on industrial development as a key to rapid growth is well justified. However, there is a clear need for Government guidance in determining priorities for future indus- trial growth, including an emphasis on highly productive export-oriented industries and medium skill consumer goods establishments, which can take advantage of a relatively inexpensive labor force. 7. Recent economic difficulties have been compounded by a deterioration of the balance of payments in the last two years. The trade deficit stood at $1.6 billion in 1972. It increased sharply to $2.8 billion in 1973 as im- ports grew rapidly, reflecting domestic supply constraints caused by a high level of economic activity. In f974, the iapoit Will increased &nlV moderate- ly, as non-oil imports reflected the decline in GDP. The increase in the oil import bill was $444 million, but re-exports of oil products rose too; the net increase was $360 million, equivalent to 12 percent of 1973 exports of goods and non-factor services and workers' remittances. Rapidly rising exports prevented any further rise in the trade deficit. While exports, particularly of manufactured products, have grown by about 25 percent per annum between 1968 and 1974, they still finance only about one-third of commodity imports. Invisible earnings, mainly from shipping, workerst remittances and tourism, have usually been equivalent to nearly half of commodity imports. In 1974, however, this proportion declined to 35 percent, reflecting lower tourism receipts - largely because of the Cyprus crisis - and a decline in workers' remittances due to reduced demand for foreign workers in Europe. As a result of these developments, the current account deficit increased threefold from 1972, to some $1.2 billion in 1973 and 1974. Greece has had only limited - 3 - access to long-term foreign capital, and inflows of concessional funds have been minimal. As a result, financing needs have been met by medium- and short-term borrowing as well as by suppliers' credits. The terms of bor- rowing deteriorated noticeably in 1973 and 1974, reflecting both higher interest rates and declining grace periods. Although foreign exchange re- serves were about $1 billion in 1972, the increased current account deficit and rising amortization requirements led to a slight decline to about $900 million at the end of 1974. This was equivalent to less than 2-1/2 months of imports. 8. The Government is postponing the formulation of a new medium-term development plan for at least one year, until investment priorities can be established. The crucial elements in such a plan are, however, already apparent: reduction of dependence on agricultural and petroleum imports, promotion of industrial and agricultural exports, and less housing invest- ment than over the last decade. Tourism and transport infrastructure, and in particular highway construction, are likely to be accorded lower priority than in the past. 9. The Greek economy faces significant problems. In the short term, the Government may experience difficulties in striking the right balance be- tween measures directed to restore aggregate purchasing power and regenerate growth on the one hand, and those to ensure relative price stability and ex- ternal balance on the other. Given the immediate priority of stabilization, GDP growth is unlikely to exceed 2-3 percent in 1975, with the main contri- butions coming from agricultural output and exports of manufactured goods. It may not recover to the long term trend of about 7 percent even in 1976. The Government expects to keep price increases below 10 percent in 1975. Heavy dependence on imports, especially for capital goods, and the vulnerability of earnings from shipping, tourism and workers' remittances, pose serious short-term problems. Even after taking into consideration available undis- bursed loan funds, access to the IMF oil facility, uncommitted funds from EIB, a new financial protocol being prepared with the EEC, and a possible recourse to the IMF, Greece will have to borrow a significant amount on world capital markets and will need to obtain as great a proportion in long-term funding as possible. In 1975 and 1976, the financing gap to be filled by non- concessionary borrowing is forecast at $700 million and $980 million respec- tively, assuming reserves are to be kept at the equivalent of at least 2 months of imports. 10. Although Greece's economy is approaching a more advanced stage of development, significant regional and sectoral disparities persist. Further- more, the economy has to prepare itself to face increasing competition from imports from the European Economic Community (EEC), particularly in the indus- trial sector, where tariffs and other protective barriers are being gradually reduced under the Association Agreement with the EEC. Given the level of economic development already achieved, a GDP growth rate of about 7 percent per annum over the longer term seems feasible, provided there is favorable weather for agriculture and provided relative price stability is maintained. - 4 - It deperss maialy or, continuing expaasion of Manufactuiring industry at about 13 percesnt per annu% and ar. inccrase in lt-ricultujral Vroductrin of 4-5 percelnt Der arnum. Participation in the EEC shotuld foster improved management and technclogica od>ernizstron. 2rFe-e iss ituortart assets in its flexible, market-oriented entrepyeneurial capacity and a comparatLzeel' cfleap lal'or orce by Euroipean standards. hlowrever, fall atilizatoron of tbese resources will re- quire increased Jnvesterat in agriculcure, in export oriented indusrrie!s, and the introduction of efiective qoeatolna, technMical and maragerial tralinlng. 11. Public external debt outstanding at the enar of 1673 amounted to $Ž. 250 million, of hi-cb $730 million was tLrldisburseri. Reprt:ed ew ct it- n-ents in 1474 aimunted to $404 million (excluding $124 million from the DiF oil facility). Debt servrice pasments in I973 reached $260 niililon (of which $6 million on Bank loans), and represented 1 percezt of t4i:seipts