International Bank for Reconstruction and Development 87319 International Development Association International Finance Corporation Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY CONFIDENTIAL EDS97-407 November 5, 1997 Board Meeting of November 6, 1997 Statement by Mr. Enzo Del Bufalo Colombia: Country Assistance Strategy We welcome Colombia's Country Assistance Strategy and commend the management and the staff for its preparation, especially the consultative process by which it was developed. The document presents a thoughtful analysis of the recent economic and social development in the country, as well as an extensive discussion of the difficult challenges remaining ahead. The paper assesses frankly the economic and political risk associated with the economic development of the country in the coming years and the new program of Bank assistance. We are pleased to note that the economic achievements in the country during the past four decades have been remarkable with an average 4.5% growth rate. Nevertheless, they still face many challenges, such as (i) high fiscal deficit, due to structural causes; (ii) poverty, a critical problem with incidence three times higher in rural than in urban areas; and, (iii) the high and pervasive level of violence in the country, recognized as a significant obstacle to improve the living conditions of the average Colombian. Therefore, this Chair agrees with and supports management's six strategic priorities, to help reduce the level of violence. In reference to page 10 paragraph 21, which reads: “Both government authorities and civil society representatives agreed that promoting peace and addressing the socio-economic determinants of violence should now be the number one development priority in Colombia", we believe that the Colombian society needs and deserves bilateral and multilateral support in this endeavor. Therefore, we greatly welcome the Bank efforts in defining alternative solutions and intervention mechanisms to promote peace in the country, as those measures described in paragraphs 21 and 22. Considering that new authorities will take office in the summer of 1998, we share the Bank’s envisaged base case scenario as the most likely. Integral to the outcome is the necessary participation of the private sector investment in infrastructure projects. Therefore, the 2 Bank Group direct involvement is much needed in removal of barriers to private sector participation; strengthening the legal, regulatory and institutional framework and enhancing the development of sound financial markets. Current legislation on banking reform is pending in Congress. The World Bank and IFC intend to play a "catalytic role" on improving efficiency of financial intermediation. In this context, we notice that the Colombian financial system has an average spread between lending and deposit rates of about 11%, one of the highest in Latin America. One of the reasons is the lack of outside competition, although the number of foreign banks attracted to do business in the country is increasing. We would like to have some comments from staff on the World Bank Group's role in the Colombian financial sector development. The CAS states that the "structural roots of the deficit will be tackled during the projection period", and that the "overall fiscal deficit is projected to decline from 3.6% of GDP to 2.4% in 1998". The political uncertainties of the forthcoming presidential and congressional elections may indicate that no further fiscal adjustments are possible. Thus, further deterioration of the fiscal deficit is a possibility. Comments from management would be useful in this area. The 1993 CAS established three main strategic areas: (i) private sector development; (ii) poverty alleviation; and (iii) environmental management. We would like to receive from the staff a more organized and detailed presentation of the advances made in those broad development objectives, and of the role of the Bank Group. Finally, as the CAS rightly recognized, there is a need to expand non-lending services in developing areas, such as: market-based approach to land reform, financial sector, determinants of violence, environment, and decentralization. We fully support the expansion of these services, and also believe they could be extended to other Latin American Countries. Basic Education Project - Antoquia, and Education Project - Pasto We strongly support the two education projects in the cities of Antioquia and Pasto, as well as World Bank further involvement in these relevant areas. Both projects address, partly, the major challenges facing basic education in Latin America, namely its lack of quality. They recognize the country's unequally low levels of educational attainment and coverage, mainly between rural and urban, and public and private. The key performance indicators defined in the annexes seem to us adequate to monitor implementation, at least at this stage of the project.