The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education January 2021 A joint World Bank-UNHCR report © 2021 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved This work is a co-publication of The World Bank and UNHCR with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent, or those of UNHCR or the United Nations. The World Bank and UNHCR do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work and do not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the informa- tion, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. 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All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover photo: Pakistan. Afghan refugee students at UNHCR funded school. © UNHCR / Asif Shahzad The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education January 2021 A joint World Bank-UNHCR report © Shoot Productions/World Bank Foreword More than half of the seven million school-age refugees living in displacement across the world in 2019 were not in school. Education provides essential knowledge and skills, and a sense of normalcy and predictability for displaced children and youth. It contributes to human capital development and provides opportunities for individual earnings, employment and covering essential needs such as health and food. For families, it provides a sense of hope for the next generation and improves social cohesion with host communities. It is also essential for durable solutions. Quality education is an important public good driving economic growth, innovation, civic engagement and reduced poverty. During displacement, the medium-term benefits of education for refugees include the knowledge and skills that can contribute to stability, reconstruction and peacebuilding in their home countries. Over half of all school-age refugees are hosted by low and lower-middle income countries that themselves face challenges in delivering education services to host populations. It is becoming increasingly evident that including refugees in national systems is the only sustainable solution to addressing both the educational needs of refugees and the amplified needs of their host communities. This paper presents a joint effort by the World Bank and UNHCR to estimate the cost of educating refugee children through host country inclusive systems. This is critical, now more than ever, with refugees staying much longer in asylum countries, without solutions. The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the deep vulnerabilities of the most marginalized populations, including refugee children. But beyond that, it has shown us that a solution cannot be effective if it does not reach everyone. We need to extend this sense of interconnectedness and solidarity to how we respond to the refugee education crisis and strive towards leaving no child or youth behind. This report is set against a policy environment that promotes the development of inclusive national education systems. In 2018, the international community came together and adopted the Global Compact on Refugees (GCR). The GCR aims to operationalize the principles of burden and responsibility sharing to better protect and assist refugees and to support host countries and communities. It also sets out a vision to expand the quality and inclusiveness of national systems to facilitate access by refugee and host community children and youth to primary, secondary and tertiary education. It is this vision of comprehensive responses that underpins and has motivated this piece of work. The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 5 The report is a crucial step towards understanding the needs of refugees and host countries, developing an adequate framework for response, and catalysing renewed discussions around responsibility-sharing. It gives a message of hope: the global estimate of US$4.85 billion per year as “what it would take” is not out of reach. It will require the collective effort of the international community and host governments, but it is doable. We are committed to playing our part and to scaling up and coordinating our support for refugee education in collaboration with other international and local partners. By committing to supporting education for all children and youth, we stand in solidarity not only with refugee populations but also with the host country governments and communities that have so generously opened their borders to the most vulnerable and are hosting them. Raouf Mazou Mamta Murthi Assistant High Commissioner for Operations Vice President for Human Development 6 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education Contents 5 Foreword 8 Acknowledgements 9 Abbreviations 10 Executive Summary 14 Background 18 Building National Inclusive Education Systems 22 Existing Efforts to Estimate the Cost of Refugee Education 26 Current Costing Methodology 34 Summary of Findings 45 Investing in Refugee Education 49 Annex 1: Costing Methodology 52 Annex 2: Number of refugees and unit costs by host country 59 Annex 3: Refugee Education Financing – Pre-primary 66 Annex 4: Refugee Education Financing – Primary 73 Annex 5: Refugee Education Financing – Secondary 80 Annex 6: Refugee Education Financing – Total 87 Annex 7: Case study on the education of Palestinian refugees in UNRWA schools 89 Annex 8: List of World Bank approved projects for the IDA Regional Sub-Window for Refugees The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 7 Acknowledgements This paper represents a joint effort by the World Bank FCV Group and Education Global Practice and UNHCR. The core team was composed by Dina Abu-Ghaida and Karishma Silva, under the guidance of Keiko Miwa (Regional Director, Human Development, Middle East and North Africa Region). The team benefitted from the leadership of Ewen McLeod (Advisor to the UNHCR High Commissioner) and support from the UNHCR Education Team including Ann Scowcroft, Rebecca Telford, Erica Aiazzi, Ita Sheehy, Jennifer Roberts and Benoit d’Ansembourg. The team is grateful for input from host country governments represented at the Third Technical Workshop on Measuring the Impact of Hosting, Protecting and Assisting Refugees held in November 2019. The team greatly benefitted from comments from Xavier Devictor, Kevin Carey, Samer Al-Samarrai, Peter Darvas, Nandini Krishnan, Caroline Sergeant and other members of the World Bank Fragility, Conflict and Violence Group (FCV) and Education Global Practice teams that participated in discussions on the paper. The World Bank team gratefully acknowledges support from the Prospects Partnership programme, funded through the Multi- Donor Trust Fund for Forced Displacement (FDTF) administered by the World Bank. 8 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education Abbreviations AEP Accelerated Education Programme ECD Early Childhood Development ECE Early Childhood Education ECW Education Cannot Wait EFA Education for All ERP Education Response Plan EU European Union FCV Fragility, Conflict and Violence GCR Global Compact on Refugees GDP Gross Domestic Product GEM Global Education Monitoring GPE Global Partnership for Education IDA International Development Association IFFEd International Financing Facility for Education IGAD Intergovernmental Authority for Development LIC Low income country LMIC Lower-middle income country MHPSS Mental Health and Psycho-Social Support MIC Middle income country NGO Non-governmental organization ODI Overseas Development Institute PPP Purchasing Power Parity RSW Regional Sub-Window for Refugees and Host Communities SDG Sustainable Development Goal TEC Temporary Education Center UIS UNESCO Institute for Statistics UMIC Upper-middle income country UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund UNRWA United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees VDA Venezuelans Displaced Abroad WHR Window for Host Communities and Refugees The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 9 Executive Summary This report estimates the cost of educating refugee1 children in the countries in which they currently reside. The cohort-average annual cost of providing education to all refugee students in low, lower-middle and upper-middle income host countries is US$4.85 billion.2 A sensitivity analysis, relaxing model assumptions, suggests the estimate lies in the range of US$4.44 billion and US$5.11 billion. The total financing envelope required to provide K-12 years of education over a 13-year period to 2032 is US$63 billion. As data on the impact of COVID-19’s impact on education costs and public expenditure is still evolving, this paper provides a pre- COVID-19 baseline for the estimated costs of educating all refugee children. The Global Compact on Refugees (GCR) has placed enhanced responsibility-sharing at the center of the international refugee protection agenda. It commits stakeholders to specific measures to achieve that goal, including a proposal to measure their contributions.3 This requires a standardized and transparent methodology, developed through a participatory process, that can be used across all host countries; and provides the motivation for this work. This report is set against a policy environment that promotes the development of inclusive national education systems. It gives a message of hope: while providing education to all refugee children presents a considerable endeavor, the global estimate on “what it would take” is not out of reach of the collective efforts of the international community and host governments. The report is cognizant of the fact that education in emergencies is not only a humanitarian crisis but also a development crisis with large numbers of refugee children spending their whole education life cycle in displaced settings. These environments are often already stretched to deliver quality education services. Eighty-five percent of the world’s displaced persons are hosted in low and lower middle-income countries. Where refugees are concentrated in border or rural regions, inclusive education systems can direct resources to previously underserved areas in host countries. Inclusive national education systems promote a streamlined response to the large influx of refugees by building resilient systems with benefits for refugees and host communities alike. It creates a framework for the international community to harmonize efforts and share the collective burden and responsibility of refugee education. 1 In this analysis, the term ‘refugees’ refers to asylum seekers, refugees and Venezuelans displaced abroad who are registered with the UNHCR, unless specified otherwise. 2 An additional US$443 million is the estimated annual cost of delivering education to Palestinian refugee children under the mandate of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA). 3 Global Compact on Refugees – paragraph 48. 10 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 85% of the world’s displaced people are hosted in low and lower middle-income countries. The costing methodology developed in this report is based on the key premise that refugee education is embedded in the host country education system, facing the same cost drivers and efficiency and quality constraints. This implies that refugee students receive an education that is “no better, no worse” than host country students in terms of teacher quality, school infrastructure, access to learning materials and other inputs. It starts with the public unit cost of education in each country for each level of education.4 Refugee education coefficients5 are then added to the unit costs to provide education services essential to the integration of refugees into national systems. These services include accelerated learning programmes, psychosocial support, support in the language of instruction, teacher training in refugee inclusiveness and so on. In addition, given the historical levels of low investment in early childhood education (ECE), this paper adds an ECE coefficient to primary public unit costs to estimate pre-primary costs for each country. While this paper uses uniform coefficients across all countries, these are likely to vary based on the local context. Enrollment figures are based on estimates from UNHCR data on refugees, asylum seekers and Venezuelans displaced abroad. The methodology accounts for cohort structure by developing estimates for annual enrollment at each level of education. These enrollment figures are then multiplied with the estimated unit costs of refugee education and summed over the K-12 years of schooling to derive the country-specific financing envelope required to educate the existing population of refugee children in the host country. These figures are aggregated across all host countries to derive the total envelope required. The analysis assumes that there are no additional influxes of refugees beyond UNHCR figures as of June 2020 and that these populations do not leave their present host countries. While the model assumes targets of universal access to pre-primary, primary and secondary education, the report recognizes that this may not hold true in all host countries. 4 The public unit costs are calculated based on data obtained from the UNESCO Institute of Statistics (UIS) database on initial public expenditure by level of education divided by total public enrollment at that level of education. Public expenditure includes both current and capital costs, as well as spending at all levels of government. Where UIS data is not available, the unit cost is estimated using public expenditure on education as a percentage of GDP per capita. In the context of a larger exercise on estimating the overall impact of refugees on host countries, the World Bank and UNHCR are working with host countries on utilizing countries’ fiscal and education sector data to derive unit costs as well as the costs of programmes addressing refugee student needs. 5 These coefficients have been adopted from the coefficients for the inclusion of marginalized children at pre-primary, primary and secondary education in the 2015 EFA Global Education Monitoring Report on global education costing. The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 11 While this report provides global as well as country-specific financing requirements, it does not attempt to substitute for national planning with inclusive education strategies and costed implementation plans, nor is it meant for cross-country comparisons.  Iran. Afghan refugee sisters in Isfahan go to school for the first time © UNHCR/Mohammad Hossein Dehghanian 12 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education The average unit cost for refugee education is US$1,051. There are large variations by country income categorization: the average unit cost for refugee education in low, lower-middle and upper-middle income countries is US$171, US$663 and US$2,085 respectively. This report is accompanied by a dashboard where host countries can review summaries of country-specific refugee numbers, unit costs, cohort average annual costs, and average and total costs by level of education. These figures are also provided in the annex of the report. Any methodology that is adopted will rest on a set of assumptions and agreed approaches, is likely to use proxies, omit some aspects, and rely on incomplete data sets. The cost of refugee-specific education programmes will differ by country and might not match the global average coefficients assumed in this report. These programmes will have to be differentiated by areas and years of intervention, geographical scope, technical capacity requirements, and so on. This report calls for improved data collection and reporting on refugee education, especially regarding demographics, the cost of refugee education programmes and how these evolve over time as the initial emergency response becomes a protracted situation, and the unit cost of public education in host countries. This will lead to improvements in the process of measuring the impact and contributions of host countries and make for more the accurate refugee education financing estimates.  While this report provides global as well as country-specific financing requirements, it does not attempt to substitute for national planning with inclusive education strategies and costed implementation plans, nor is it meant for cross-country comparisons. It aims to provide an aggregate dollar estimate of “what it would take” to educate all refugees in their current host countries. The estimates presented in this report do not reflect international commitments or obligations, nor current domestic expenditure on refugee education. This report commends the momentum gained in the development of national inclusive education systems and aims to support countries by providing guiding principles for costing refugee education. Further, the provision of financial resources is a necessary but not sufficient condition for universal access and completion of education. This paper recognizes that barriers to access and completion persist even in countries that invests heavily in education. Improvements in quality and learning outcomes are also not directly correlated with greater education expenditure. While estimating the cost of access to quality education for refugees and host communities constitutes a larger exercise, and is an area for future work, this paper acknowledges the importance of focusing on the learning agenda alongside the access problem. Another area for future work is to estimate a mark-up for the cost of education interventions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. This might include the costs of delivering remote education services, teacher training, curriculum reviews, devices to close the digital divide, and removing demand-side barriers as vulnerable children become even more susceptible to dropping or staying out of school. Given that this is the first step towards measuring the cost of including refugees in national systems, the approach and methodology will be iterated, reviewed and improved over time. Furthermore, the standardized, transparent and participatory approach can be adopted for other sectors in the future including health and water amongst others. While each sector will have a nuanced costing methodology, the importance of undertaking the costing exercise both for host countries and for the international community cannot be overemphasized. It is a crucial step towards understanding the needs of refugees and host countries, developing an adequate response framework, and catalyzing renewed discussions around responsibility-sharing. The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 13 Background The number of forcibly displaced people reached a record high in 2019, with substantial proportions in protracted refugee situations. Over the last decade, the number of people facing forced displacement due to conflict, violence, persecution or human rights violations nearly doubled from 41.1 million in 2010 to 79.5 million people by the end of 2019. Of these, 26 million are refugees, half of whom are below the age of 18.6 An additional 3.6 million Venezuelans have been displaced abroad. About 77 percent of refugees are in protracted refugee situations7, and 5.8 million refugees are in a situation lasting 20 years or more. This implies that substantial proportions of refugee children are in refugee situations for the entirety of their schooling years. Beyond being a basic human right, access to quality education for refugees is critical for safety, social-cohesion, peace-building and stability. It helps them cope with and overcome the trauma they may have experienced as a result of displacement and violence. Further, it is critical to skills development, future employment and self-sufficiency. Refugees need accelerated and simplified pathways to integrate into new societies and education plays a key role in this process. Highly educated refugees can also contribute to the sustainable development and reconstruction of their home and host countries. Access to education for refugee children remains far lower than for those not forced into displacement. It is estimated that 77 percent of refugee children attend primary school, only 31 percent of refugee youth accesses secondary education, and a mere 3 percent accesses tertiary opportunities.8 This is substantially lower than the global access to education figures of 91 percent, 84 percent and 37 percent for primary, secondary and tertiary levels, respectively. Further, an estimated 48 percent of school-age refugee children are out of school.9 Access to education is affected by financial and legal barriers to entry, limited availability of additional spaces and trained teachers to absorb the influx of refugee students, traditionally inadequate investment in refugee education, as well as a host of social, cultural and economic constraints faced by individual families. Even after entering school, refugee students are far more likely to drop out. Once students drop out of school, it becomes difficult for them to reenter and catch up. Globally, only 34 percent of out-of-school children are likely to re-enroll in education.10 Challenges to accessing education are further exacerbated as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and the looming economic crisis.11 Where 6 UNHCR. 2020. Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2019. 7 UNHCR defines a protracted refugee situation as one in which 25,000 or more refugees of the same nationality have been in exile for five or more consecutive years in a given host country. 8 UNHCR. 2020. Coming Together for Refugee Education. 9 UNHCR. 2020. Coming Together for Refugee Education. 10 Save the Children. 2018. Hear it from the teachers – Getting refugee children back to learning. 11 Rogers, H. and Sabarwal, S. 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic: Shocks to education and policy responses. World Bank: Washington D.C. 14 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education education has shifted to online or remote delivery, limited access to the internet and reliable electricity keep children from learning. In sub-Saharan Africa, where a quarter of the world’s refugees reside, 89 percent of learners do not have access to a computer and 82 percent lack internet access.12 Educating displaced children and youth poses unique challenges. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) estimates that refugee children miss out on an average of three to four years of schooling due to forced displacement.13 As a result, refugee children are likely to be older than their peers and suffer discrimination and stigmatization by both teachers and peers. Where they are enrolled according to their age, they will face academic difficulties given the interruption in their schooling. They are likely to have suffered psychological trauma as a result of violence and conflict, which may inhibit their ability to participate and learn in a classroom. They might have physical disabilities, either from birth or as a result of violence. They often have only one, or no adult caretaker at home and are often forced to work and engage in income-generating activity. This means that the opportunity cost of their education is very high. Their learning is further affected if the host country’s language of instruction is different from that of their country of origin. In addition to these challenges, they also face several constraints to entering and remaining in school. These include high costs associated with education (like transportation and materials), extended interruptions to their learning, schools refusing to enroll refugee children, risk of gender-based violence while traveling to school, poverty and pressure to work (prevalent among older children, especially boys), lack of awareness of available education programmes or the complexity in registering for them. Furthermore, refugee populations are concentrated in developing countries where education services are already stretched to meet the needs of citizens and learning poverty is high. Almost nine out of ten of the world’s displaced people are hosted in low income countries (LICs) and lower middle-income countries (LMICs).14 New data shows that 53 percent of all children in LICs and middle-income countries (MICs) suffer from learning poverty which means being unable to read and understand a simple text by age 10.15 The education systems of these host countries are not adequately equipped to improve the learning outcomes of children or to respond to the large influx of refugee children or their specific needs. There are often additional challenges at sub-national levels as refugees are often settled in poor and vulnerable communities where education services are relatively sub-standard. In 2015, the number of UNHCR registered refugees aged 3-18 years in Lebanon was almost double the number of Lebanese children enrolled in all public schools grades K-1216, a ratio that is impacted by the fact that only 30 percent of children are enrolled in public schools in Lebanon.17 In Jordan, class time was reduced from 45 to 30 12 You, D., Lindt, N., Allen, R., Hansen, C., Beise, J. and Blume, S. 2020. Migrant and displaced children in the age of COVID-19: How the pandemic is impacting them and what we can do to help. Migration Policy Practice. 10:2. 13 UNHCR. 2016. Left Behind: Refugee Education in Crisis. 14 UNHCR. 2020. Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2019. 15 World Bank. 2019. Ending Learning Poverty: What will it take? 16 World Bank. 2016. Reaching All Children with Education (RACE2) Project Appraisal Document. 17 World Bank. 2017. Lebanon Education Public Expenditure Review. The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 15 minutes as a result of the introduction of double shifts in the immediate response to the Syrian crisis in 2012. Since then, with the hiring of new teachers and an additional day of learning for Syrian refugees, class time has increased to 40 minutes.18 In Turkey, the 2014 Temporary Protection Regulation gave Syrian refugees access to public health and education services, yet many refugees were unable to register due to lack of adequate school infrastructure.19 In 2017, despite commendable efforts by the government, over 380,000 Syrian children in Turkey were not attending school.20 Coordinated efforts by the Bangladeshi government and United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) have led to the enrollment of about 472,000 Rohingya refugees; however, there is little enrollment in formal education, and over 60,000 refugee children of primary school age remain out of school and 97 percent of children aged 15-17 are not enrolled in any form of education or training.21 In Dadaab refugee camp in Kenya, 72 percent of refugee teachers have only secondary school qualifications, and are not adequately supported with training and materials.22 Refugee education has historically been addressed through separate or parallel systems as a temporary response to refugee emergencies. This includes setting up temporary learning centers or schools within refugee camps, introducing parallel systems with the home country curriculum and language of instruction, parallel afternoon classes, and remedial or accelerated learning programmes primarily set up through non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and donors. While these parallel systems worked as a stop-gap in the immediate response to emergencies, they often did not provide a clear pathway to formal education, especially for undocumented or unregistered refugees. In Bangladesh, refugee children placed in refugee camps are not allowed to attend public schools in the local communities and follow a coherent recognized curriculum covering a sequence of grades and school levels. In Turkey, Temporary Education Centers (TEC) were set up inside and outside camps, and offered the Syrian curriculum taught in Arabic. Differences in curriculum and language of instruction made it difficult to integrate students into regular public schools. In Myanmar, because refugees were unable to enroll in school without documentation, Migrant Learning Centers were started by refugee teachers to cater to the influx of refugees from western Thailand; however, as informal learning centers they were resource constrained and lacked accreditation,23 again creating challenges for smooth integration into the formal education system. 18 Bataineh and Montalbano. 2018. The impact of the Syrian crisis on the quality of education in Jordan: a quantitative and qualitative assessment. 19 Crul, Maurice, Frans Lelie, Ozge Biner, Nihad Bunar, Elif Keskiner, Ifigenia Kokkali, Jens Schneider and Maha Shuayb. 2019. How the different policies and school systems affect the inclusion of Syrian refugee children in Sweden, Germany, Greece, Lebanon and Turkey. Comparative Migration Studies. 7:10. 20 Crul, Maurice, Frans Lelie, Ozge Biner, Nihad Bunar, Elif Keskiner, Ifigenia Kokkali, Jens Schneider and Maha Shuayb. 2019. How the different policies and school systems affect the inclusion of Syrian refugee children in Sweden, Germany, Greece, Lebanon and Turkey. Comparative Migration Studies. 7:10. 21 UNICEF. 2019. Beyond survival: Rohingya refugee children in Bangladesh want to learn. 22 Duale, Mohamed, Ochan Leomoi, Abdullahi Aden, Okello Oyat, Arte Dagane and Abdikadir Abikar. 2019. Teachers in displacement: Learning from Dadaab. Forced Migration Review. 60: 56-58. 23 Purkey, Mary, and Megan Irving. 2019. The importance of access and accreditation: learning from the Thailand-Myanmar border. Forced Migration Review. 60: 68-71. 16 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education While Syrian refugee children make up approximately 40 percent of all school-age children in Lebanon, the majority of them attend second-shift schools. These afternoon classes are held between 14:00 and 18:30 and are made up almost exclusively of Syrian children.24 There are concerns about the quality of education and accreditation provided. Research shows that some Syrian parents who were unable to enroll their children in the morning shifts chose not to enroll them in the afternoon shifts.25 In Greece, refugee students living in urban areas are integrated into public schools with the support of morning reception classes, while those living in refugee centers attend afternoon classes in nearby public schools. Simopoulos and Alexandridis (2019) finds that refugee students who were segregated through afternoon classes had poorer learning outcomes, faced more stigmatization and had poorer development of language skills as a result of less interaction with Greek students.26 Provision of public education can be supported by non-formal and informal education programmes. Non-formal education programmes take place both within and outside educational institutions and may, but do not always lead to certification. They include vocational and technical programmes as well as skills training for the labor market. Informal education refers to education activities that include literacy, numeracy, life skills and recreational activities, but are not certifiable by a Ministry of Education and are not bound to an age or target group.27 Refugee-specific programmes are primarily operated by NGOs and international organizations, and can support the provision of public education, for example through language support, basic numeracy and literacy and community-based education. They can also support public education through Accelerated Education Programmes (AEPs), which are often accredited and have links to the formal system. They can help support out-of- school children, provide a substitute for formal education where spaces are limited or costs areprohibitive, and provide essential support to help refugee students cope with trauma. However, the limitation of informal programmes is that they are not regulated or accredited, and do not provide a clear pathway to formal education. The World Bank recognizes the importance of non-formal education in reaching all students with quality education and for lifelong learning, but calls for these programmes to be upgraded, certified and licensed.28 UNHCR strongly discourages investment in informal education where it acts as a substitute for formal education and does not lead to further accredited learning.29 Lack of educational certification and documentation are key barriers to refugee participation in secondary and higher education. 24 Crul, Maurice, Frans Lelie, Ozge Biner, Nihad Bunar, Elif Keskiner, Ifigenia Kokkali, Jens Schneider and Maha Shuayb. 2019. How the different policies and school systems affect the inclusion of Syrian refugee children in Sweden, Germany, Greece, Lebanon and Turkey. Comparative Migration Studies. 7:10. 25 Crul, Maurice, Frans Lelie, Ozge Biner, Nihad Bunar, Elif Keskiner, Ifigenia Kokkali, Jens Schneider and Maha Shuayb. 2019. How the different policies and school systems affect the inclusion of Syrian refugee children in Sweden, Germany, Greece, Lebanon and Turkey. Comparative Migration Studies. 7:10. 26 Simopoulos, Giorgos, and Antonios Alexandridis. 2019. Refugee education in Greece: integration or segregation? Forced Migration Review. 60: 27-29. 27 UNHCR. 2015. Out-of-school children in refugee settings. Education: Issue Brief 2. Geneva: UNHCR. 28 World Bank. 2011. World Bank Group Education Strategy 2020 – Learning for all: Investing in people’s knowledge and skills to promote development. Washington, D.C: World Bank. 29 UNHCR. 2019. Refugee Education 2030: A Strategy for Refugee Inclusion. The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 17 Building National Inclusive Education Systems With the help of the international community, governments are moving towards inclusive, integrated education systems. The degree to which refugees are integrated into national education systems varies widely by country. In 2016, the Rwandan government committed to integrating 50 percent of refugees at primary school level and all refugees at secondary school level into national systems within a year. In 2018, it reported having met 83.4 percent of its original target.30 In Jordan, 95 percent of Syrian refugees are enrolled in public schools, 4 percent in private schools and 1 percent in schools operated by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA).31 Of the refugee students attending schools outside the camps, 71 percent are enrolled in double shift schools, with two- thirds of them attending the afternoon shift. The Turkish government is working towards an integrated education system with the goal of moving all Syrian children into Turkish-medium schools by 2020.32 To this end, refugee children enrolling in the first, fifth or ninth grade (entry into primary, lower secondary and secondary) are enrolled directly in regular Turkish public schools. TECs established in the early response to the Syrian crisis, are now being converted to official Turkish public schools where education is either free or subsidized. The Turkish government also introduced a Turkish language programme in TECs that has enabled the transition of students into regular public schools. In 2006, the Myanmar government extended access to public schools for all children, irrespective of their legal status.33 Lebanese regulations stipulate that its national curriculum be taught to Syrian children exactly as it is to Lebanese. UNRWA schools have used host country curricula for many years to ensure that refugee students can transition into national secondary schools and universities and sit national examinations.34 In 2018, the Chad government declared 108 schools in refugee camps to be public schools, which can now be accessed by refugees and local students.35 Ecuador passed legislation to improve school participation for Venezuelan refugee children who do not have the required documentation.36 All of these examples point towards increased momentum in the development of inclusive education systems in host countries. 30 UNHCR. 2018. Two year progress assessment of the CRRF approach: September 2016 – September 2018. Geneva: UNHCR. 31 Tiltnes, Åge A., Huafeng Zhang and Jon Pedersen. 2019. The living conditions of Syrian refugees in Jordan: Results from the 2017-2018 survey of Syrian refugees inside and outside camps. Fafo-report 2019:04. 32 Hauber-Özer, Melissa. Schooling gaps for Syrian refugees in Turkey. Forced Migration Review. 60: 50-52. 33 Purkey, Mary, and Megan Irving. 2019. The importance of access and accreditation: learning from the Thailand-Myanmar border. Forced Migration Review. 60: 68-71. 34 Save the Children, UNHCR and Pearson. 2019. Promising practices in refugee education – synthesis report. 35 UNHCR. 2018. Two year progress assessment of the CRRF approach: September 2016 – September 2018. Geneva: UNHCR. 36 UNHCR. 2019. Stepping Up: Refugee Education in Crisis. 18 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education There is a growing consensus that integrating refugees into national education systems is the only way to ensure sustainability and to give refugees proper accreditation for their efforts in education. The large numbers of school-age children in refugee populations who are facing protracted displacement need refugee-inclusive education systems that are cost effective and sustainable in the long-term. Investments in refugee education are often segmented and ‘projectized’ resulting in inadequate resources that are then inefficiently allocated, where as integrated systems facilitate the identification of refugee education requirements and long-term planning. It further ensures that refugees receive quality educational and that their education qualifications are recognized for transition into post-secondary education and eventually, into the labor market. Furthermore, integration can lead to service development for underserved local communities in host countries. Over 50 percent of refugees live in urban areas, integrated in the communities hosting them. These are often the poorest and most deprived parts of the host country.37 Investments in education for refugees can therefore improve the underlying quality of education service delivery in these host communities. For instance, Pakistan’s Refugee Affected and Hosting Areas initiative directed funds to underserved host communities and of the 800,000 beneficiaries, 16 percent were Afghan refugee children while the rest were local Pakistanis.38 Moreover, integrated schools are more likely to receive government support in terms of inputs – parallel school systems are often less frequently monitored for quality, if at all; and receive less support in the form of teacher training and learning materials. Integrated schools are also key to reducing tension between refugee and host communities and developing of social cohesion between local and refugee students over time. Integration means refugee students receiving education that is “no better, no worse” than host country students. Refugee-inclusive education systems allow governments to cost education investments in the same way for refugees and native students, meaning that improvements in access, in the quality and quantity of teachers, teaching and learning materials and learning environments, are spread across all students. Furthermore, the financial constraints faced by host country systems are applied to local and refugee students uniformly, so that governments, that are already stretched are not expected to commit more resources to refugees than to local systems beyond the initial integration phase. This implies an education financing funding formula based on equal per capita unit costs for local and refugee students. This principle is supported by one of the key result areas in the UNHCR Refugee Education Strategy 2030 to ensure that children and youth have access to all levels of formal and non-formal education within national education systems, under the same conditions as nationals.39 Per student costs should be supplemented by refugee education coefficients for specialized education programmes supporting integration into host country systems. In order to ensure that refugee children are prepared to learn and succeed in national education systems, the UNHCR Refugee Education Strategy 2030 outlines that 37 Save the Children, UNHCR and Pearson. 2019. Promising practices in refugee education – synthesis report. 38 UNHCR. 2019. Stepping Up: Refugee Education in Crisis. 39 UNHCR. 2019. Refugee Education 2030: A Strategy for Refugee Inclusion. The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 19 children should: be supported to make up for missed schooling in preparation for entering formal education at age-appropriate levels; be provided with adequate language training where necessary; and be provided with conditions that foster social and emotional learning and, where needed, receive mental health and psychosocial support; receive any support required to enable theie access to the education system; and be taught by teachers who have been adequately trained to respond to children with diverse learning requirements.40 A. Accelerated education programmes (AEPs): an AEP is a flexible, age-appropriate programme, run in an accelerated timeframe, which aims to provide access to education for disadvantaged, over-age, out-of-school children and youth. This may include those who missed out on or had their education interrupted due to poverty, marginalization, conflict and crisis. The goal of AEPs is to provide learners with equivalent, certified competencies for basic education using effective teaching and learning approaches that match their level of cognitive maturity.41 UNHCR operates such programmes based on national accelerated education systems in several countries including Ethiopia, Lebanon, Kenya, Syria, South Sudan and Sudan. In Uganda, 23,000 over-age learners who were previously out of school have now transitioned into primary schools through accelerated learning programmes.42 In Jordan, where students are not allowed to enroll in a grade if they are more than three years older than the cohort age,43 accelerated learning programmes can help children catch-up and re-enroll. B. Psychosocial support: many displaced children are likely to have been separated from their families or to have witnessed experiences of danger, violence, significant loss and life-threatening events.44 Their ability to participate and learn in school may be inhibited by these experiences, but their ability to cope can be improved through regular, specialized psychosocial support. An evaluation of the Better Learning Programme (funded by the Norwegian Refugee Council), which integrates psychosocial support with classroom instruction found a reduction in nightmares, distressing emotions and physical illness, an increase in interest in attending school and completing homework, and an increased sense of safety.45 These results hold true in Afghanistan and Palestine.46 C. Language support: where language courses are offered, it is usually in refugee camps or through introduction/submersion classes rather than in the framework 40 UNHCR. 2019. Refugee Education 2030: A Strategy for Refugee Inclusion. 41 UNHCR. 2017. Guide to the Acceleration Education Principles. 42 UNHCR. 2019. Stepping Up: Refugee Education in Crisis. 43 Tiltnes, Åge A., Huafeng Zhang and Jon Pedersen. 2019. The living conditions of Syrian refugees in Jordan: Results from the 2017-2018 survey of Syrian refugees inside and outside camps. Fafo-report 2019:04. 44 INEE. 2016. Psychosocial support and social and emotional learning for children and youth in emergency settings. 45 McEvoy, Bethan. 2019. Feeling safe enough to learn in a conflict zone. Forced Migration Review. 60: 5-7. 46 Shah, Ritesh. 2017. Improving children’s wellbeing: an evaluation of NRC’s Better Learning Programme in Palestine. 20 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education of formal education. This generally falls within the remit of NGOs and international organizations. Even in Lebanon, where the primary language of instruction is Arabic, core subjects like Mathematics and Science are taught in either English or French. In Uganda, the refugee population is largely from South Sudan, Burundi, DRC and Rwanda. Apart from those refugees from South Sudan, these refugee students are francophone and struggle to integrate into the host country’s systems. The Uganda Refugee Response Plan 2019-2020 recognizes the essential need to support mother-tongue literacy, language-bridging courses, community involvement in schools and the engagement of bi-lingual teaching assistants in classrooms in order to deliver education in these multi-linguistic settings.47 The Turkish government has implemented a Turkish-language programme to prepare refugee children for the transition from unofficial TECs to public schools. D. Conditional cash transfers: refugee children are more likely to be out of school as a result of pressures to work and contribute to family incomes. UNHCR and Save the Children found that in 2013 almost half of all refugee children in Jordan were working.48 Further, the cost of transportation, school materials and uniforms can be prohibitive for many families. While these demand-side constraints are not particular to refugee children, they are exacerbated in communities where refugees are not allowed to enter formal employment and poverty levels are high. In such settings, cash transfers to families that are conditional on school attendance can help lessen the high opportunity cost of education. In Turkey, the Conditional Cash Transfer for Education programme showed increased school attendance of Syrian and other refugee children. E. Teacher training for refugee inclusiveness: teachers in host communities face unprecedented challenges in delivering of quality education, being faced with overcrowded classrooms, overage children and refugee children suffering from psychological trauma or physical disability, a situation that is exacerbated by limited teaching resources, monitoring and leadership. It is crucial that they be able to foster a safe and inclusive environment that is conducive to learning. Moreover, they have to be trained on sensitizing local students to the needs of refugee students to prevent stigmatization and bullying and improve social cohesion. These skills have to be developed through continuous professional support. Furthermore, teachers within refugee communities can be upskilled, certified and integrated into formal education to overcome the shortage of teachers in many host countries. The Teachers in Crisis Contexts Group is working towards the development of continuous teacher support models and the provision of inter-agency, open source solutions. The summary report on Promising Practices in Refugee Education summarizes existing projects that support teachers to help ensure quality education service delivery.49 47 UNHCR. 2019. Uganda Country Refugee Response Plan 2019 – 2020. Nairobi: UNHCR. 48 Save the Children. 2018. Time to act: a costed plan to deliver quality education to every last refugee child. 49 Save the Children, UNHCR and Pearson. 2019. Promising practices in refugee education – synthesis report. The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 21 Existing Efforts to Estimate the Cost of Refugee Education While few countries explicitly include refugee coefficients in unit cost funding formulas, several countries include an equity markup based on characteristics that apply to refugee student populations. In Lithuania, schools receive an additional 20 percent for each national minority student and an additional 30 percent for each immigrant student in their first year.50 In Zurich, schools are eligible to receive an additional CHF40,000 (a little over US$40,000) each year for language support, parental engagement in pre-school and writing skills at all levels. In the UK, approximately 18 percent of total school funding is based on deprivation (measured by the proportion of students whose parents receive tax credits), the proportion of students with low attainment in national assessments and the proportion of students for whom English is a second language.51 Methodologies and resulting estimates for refugee education funding requirements vary, and existing analysis fails to provide country-specific estimates. The Education for All (EFA) Global Education Monitoring (GEM) Report 2015 estimates the annual cost of achieving universal pre-primary, primary and secondary education in 82 LICs and LMICs by 2030 is US$340 billion. The annual funding gap after domestic financing is estimated at US$39 billion. The EFA-GEM analysis provides estimates of unit costs by level of education where pre-primary, primary, lower secondary and upper secondary unit costs are US$854, US$403, US$536 and US$675, respectively.52 The methodology accounts for enrollment projections and includes coefficients for quality (pupil- teacher ratios, teacher salaries and non-salary recurrent expenditure, etc.) and equity (for marginalized children living on less than US$2/day). The markup on per students costs to include marginalized children was assumed to be 20 percent, 30 percent and 40 percent for pre-primary/primary, lower secondary and upper secondary, respectively.53 While the EFA- GEM report does not specifically estimate costs for refugee education, it provides estimates for LICs and LMICs with large concentrations of refugee children. 50 Global Education Monitoring Report. 2019. Migration, displacement and education: building bridges, not walls. Paris: UNESCO. 51 Global Education Monitoring Report. 2019. Migration, displacement and education: building bridges, not walls. Paris: UNESCO. 52 Education for All Global Monitoring Report. 2015. Pricing the right to education: the cost of reaching new targets by 2030. Policy paper 18. Paris: UNESCO. 53 Wils, Annababette. 2015. Reaching education targets in low and lower middle income countries: cost and finance gaps to 2030. 22 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education In an analysis of the costs of education in emergencies, the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) estimated the annual funding required to educate children in 35 conflict-affected and fragile countries. The ODI report finds that the annual funding requirement to support 75 million children aged 3-18 years was US$11.6 billion, of which US$8.5 billion represented the funding gap after any host country expenditure. The average unit cost per year was estimated at US$156, of which US$113 represents the financing gap.54 Based on this paper, the Education Cannot Wait (ECW) resource mobilization targets assume an annual unit cost of US$202.55 Annual unit costs at primary, lower secondary and upper secondary are estimated at US$150, US$162.5 and US$175, respectively, far lower than those in the EFA-GEM 2015 report. While the ODI report adopts crises coefficients from the EFA-GEM 2015 analysis, the unit costs are not country- specific but are estimated for three geographical contexts (Asia, Africa and Latin America) and are uniform for all countries within each region. Unit costs are determined by four main cost drivers: learning space (estimated as the cost of temporary shelter construction, assumed to be the same for all countries); teacher stipends (estimated as 50 percent of the average teacher salaries, differentiated at the regional level); teacher training (estimated as 50 percent of reported costs, uniformly applied to all countries); and classroom supplies (uniform per student cost applied for all countries). The unit costs thus estimated are the same for children of all ages and at all levels of education before the crisis premiums are added. While this methodology allows for future efforts to vary cost drivers, it does not take in to consideration existing large variations in unit cost across countries and levels of education, nor do its results provide sufficient granularity in unit costs by country. Furthermore, the ODI report acknowledges that the variability of costs in different crisis-affected countries results in a range for the total annual funding estimate of between US$4 billion and US$14 billion. These large error margins reduce the effectiveness of these estimates. A recent report by Save the Children estimates that the total cost of delivering education to 7.5 million refugee children over the next five years is US$21.5 billion, of which US$11.9 billion will need to be financed externally.56 This implies an annual cost of US$4.3 billion and an annual funding gap of US$2.4 billion. The average unit cost per child is estimated at US$575, of which US$320 is to be contributed by the international community. Primary and secondary education annual unit costs for low income countries are adopted from the ODI analysis, with the same underlying limitations of uniformity across countries and levels of education as described above. To these unit costs, a crisis premium of 20 percent was added for pre-primary, for all five years based on the coefficient in the EFA-GEM 2015 report. An additional 20 percent was added to the pre-primary unit cost only in the first year to support education provision that was previously lacking. Given that the ODI estimates already include crisis coefficients, this methodology results in an overestimate of unit costs. For MICs, unit costs from the UNESCO Institute of Statistics (UIS) database were used. Where data was unavailable, average unit costs for LMICs and upper-middle income countries (UMICs) were used. Unit costs in the UIS 54 ODI. 2016. A common platform for education in emergencies and protracted crises – evidence paper. 55 Global Education Monitoring Report. 2019. Migration, displacement and education: building bridges, not walls. Paris: UNESCO. 56 Save the Children. 2018. Time to act: a costed plan to deliver quality education to every last refugee child. The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 23 Kenya. UNHCR’s donation helps host community children resume learning safely. © UNHCR/Samuel Otieno database were computed as total public expenditure divided by total enrollment – as a result, these costs underestimate the unit cost of public education delivery where private school enrollment is high. Crisis premiums of 20 percent and 35 percent57 were added for all five years for primary and secondary unit costs. Additional out-of-school premiums of the same values were added for the first year only to reach marginalized children. The costing methodology takes into account all refugee children in LICs, LMICs and UMICs. However, it cautions against disaggregating figures by host country, suggesting that estimating costs for each country would require accurate data on the number of school-age refugees in each country, number of out-of-school refugees, the cost of delivering quality education in each country and the host governments’ commitments to provide domestic financing. 57 Since UNHCR combines demographic data for lower and upper secondary, the average of the equity coefficients from the EFA GMR 2015 report was used for each level (30 and 40 per cent respectively). 24 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education TABLE 1: Summary of existing global education costing estimates EFA Global ODI Evidence Paper 2016 Save the Children Education Monitoring Report 2018 Report 2015 Scope 82 low and lower- 35 countries affected by All countries with school- middle income crisis (75 million children) age refugees (7.5 million countries children) Annual cost US$340 billion US$11.6 billion US$4.3 billion Annual funding gap US$39 billion US$8.5 billion US$2.4 billion Average annual US$156 US$575 unit cost Annual unit costs Pre-primary US$854 US$232 (LICs) US$571 (LMICs) Primary US$403 US$150 Lower secondary US$536 US$162.50 US$575 Upper secondary US$675 US$175 Coefficient for inclusion of Coefficients adopted Coefficients adopted from marginalized from EFA GMR 2015 EFA GMR 2015 children Equity costing Pre-primary/Primary Pre-primary/Primary – Crisis premiums – 20% 20% Pre-primary/Primary – 20% Lower secondary – Lower secondary – 30% Secondary – 35% 30% Upper secondary – 40% Support to ECE previously Upper secondary – lacking – first year only 40% Pre-primary – 20% Out-of-school premiums – first year only Pre-primary/Primary – 20% Secondary – 35% The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 25 Current Costing Methodology This paper estimates the cost of education for refugees aged 5-17 years in their current host country, with specific focus on LICs, LMICs and UMICs with 7000 or more refugees.58 The key premise is that refugee education is embedded into the host country education system, facing the same cost drivers, and efficiency and quality constraints. The costing is thus based on the existing unit costs of education in the host country computed as public expenditure on education divided by public enrollment, with additional coefficients for specialized refugee education programmes. The formula begins with the annual unit cost for a student at a particular level of education (or per student or average fiscal cost). The unit costs are calculated based on data obtained from the UIS database on initial public expenditure by level of education divided by total public enrollment at that level of education. Public expenditure includes both current and capital costs, as well as spending at all levels of government.59 This per student data applies to students in national systems and the estimates incorporate spending at all levels of government (local, regional, and central) as well as across all types of spending (current and capital); in other words, the per student amount is comprehensive. Unit costs are then inflation-adjusted for each year. The costing formula is also cognizant of the importance of early childhood education (ECE) for long-term education outcomes and the historically inadequate levels of public expenditure in the area. As such, the model includes one year of ECE and the unit costs for kindergarten are not based on existing public expenditure but on primary-level unit costs, with a 30 percent increase for specialized ECE requirements. This ECE coefficient is based on the difference between global average annual public expenditure per pupil at the pre-primary and primary levels.60 Given that refugees have special educational requirements including psychosocial support, support in the language of instruction, introduction/ bridging courses and so on, a percentage increase or refugee coefficient is added to the unit cost of education. These coefficients are based on the estimates 58 In this analysis, unless specified otherwise, ‘refugees’ refers to asylum seekers, refugees and Venezuelans displaced abroad, who are registered with the UNHCR. 59 For host countries where public unit cost data was not reported (marked ± in Annex 2), unit cost has been estimated based on government expenditure by level of education as a percentage of GDP per capita. This data is obtained from the UNESCO UIS database or, if unavailable, from the World Bank Development Indicators database. 60 Wils (2015) reports annual public expenditure per pupil (weighted average) for all countries as US$258 at preschool and US$195 for primary education in 2012. 26 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education used in the EFA-GEM 2015 report to include marginalized students, which are 20 percent for pre-primary and primary education, 30 percent for lower secondary education and 40 percent for upper secondary education. This report uses an average of 35 percent as the refugee coefficient for secondary education, since demographic data on refugees is not divided into lower and upper secondary age groups. Thus, the unit cost for refugee education each year is (1 + refugee coefficient) x unit cost of education at a particular level in a particular host country. Analysis of unit cost differences between local and refugee students in Uganda61 provides confidence in these estimates. While refugee education coefficients result in a higher per student cost for refugees than for local students, this is seen not as an additional investment in refugees over native students, but rather as a means of redressing the initial gap between refugees and local students and ‘leveling the playing field’ as they enter national education systems. This methodology takes into account the flow of students through thirteen years of education, including one year of pre-primary education, six years of primary education and six years of secondary education. Given that the number of primary school-age refugee children is greater than secondary school-age refugee children in almost two-thirds of LICs and LMICs, existing methodologies that do not take into consideration projected increases in secondary school enrollment will underestimate the financing envelope required. Taking into account the cohort structure of the refugee school-age population means that for a child aged five years the model accounts for thirteen years of the full education cycle compared to a child aged 17 years for whom the model accounts for one year of secondary education. While the ODI and Save the Children reports also estimate costs for the existing population of children, this methodology goes further by modeling how these children transition from primary to secondary and then out of secondary. The model makes no assumptions regarding the influx of new refugee students or the level of access to education for refugee children, but instead costs only the education requirements for the existing population of refugee children in each host country. Based on student flows, the model then calculates the number of students in each year at each level of education and multiplies this by the unit cost of refugee education. It then calculates the total over thirteen years of education until the youngest cohort of refugee students would transition out of secondary education. This figure is then aggregated across all host countries to derive the total envelope required. This allows us to estimate the annual funding required to provide K-12 years of education for the existing cohort of refugee children in the years leading up to 2030, when the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 4 target of universal primary and secondary completion is to be achieved. 61 Ministry of Education and Sports. 2018. Education Response Plan for Refugees and Host Communities in Uganda. The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 27 Box 1: Summary of refugee education costing methodology Unit costs by country • Unit costs for primary and secondary education are calculated as total government expenditure (including current and capital costs) at each level of education divided by the total public enrollment at that level of education. These data are obtained from the UIS database. The data used is publicly available to ensure the transparency of estimates. • Unit costs for pre-primary education is calculated as (1 + ECE coefficient) x unit cost for primary education. The ECE coefficient is assumed to be 30 percent in this analysis. • Unit cost for refugee education each year is (1 + refugee coefficient) x unit cost of education by level of education. The refugee coefficients are assumed to be 20 percent at pre- primary and primary education and 35 percent at secondary education. • Unit costs are then inflation-adjusted to estimate costs over the K-12 education cycle. Refugee numbers • Refugee numbers include refugees, asylum seekers and Venezuelans displaced abroad, who are registered with UNHCR. • Refugee children aged 5-11 years are assumed to be uniformly distributed across one year of pre-primary education and six years of primary education. Those aged 12-17 years are assumed to be uniformly distributed across six years of secondary education. • Annual enrollment at each level of education accounts for student flows from one grade to the next with a share of secondary school-aged refugee children transitioning out each year. Estimating annual and total financing envelope • Annual costs are estimated as unit cost of refugee education x annual enrollment by level of education. • Annual costs are summed over the K-12 years of education to derive the total financing envelope for the existing cohort of refugee students. • The cohort-average annual cost is calculated as the total financing envelope divided by thirteen covering the K-12 years of education. Caveats and limitations • Where data on total government expenditure and public enrollment are not reported in the UIS database, they are estimated as government expenditure by level of education as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita multiplied by GDP per capita. Where this additional data is unavailable, regional averages or data from Public Expenditure Reviews are used. 28 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education • Estimates are based on nominal US dollar exchange rates rather than purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates and as such are not intended for cross-country comparisons. The same financing envelope might not equate to the same education investments in different countries for various reasons including relative exchange rates, policies, and institutions. • Refugee coefficients may differ by country based on the specific needs and costs of refugee education programmes. These should be estimated based on costing for national inclusive education. • Refugee numbers are based on those registered with UNHCR and might differ from host country estimates. • The model assumes targets of universal access to pre-primary, primary and secondary for refugee children, but this may not hold true for host populations. • Estimates provide a snapshot of the cost for the existing population of refugee children and assume no births, new influx or resettlement. The funding formula builds on existing methodologies that use per student costing as the base value for estimating financing requirements for refugee education, as in Wils (2015), ODI (2016) and Save the Children (2018). It uses existing data on public expenditure to estimate unit costs, accounting for large variations across countries and levels of education. It further adopts the coefficients for inclusion of marginalized children from the EFA-GEM 2015 report as the coefficients for refugee education and adjusts unit costs for inflation. Like existing costing work, it estimates the cost for the current stock of refugee children; but goes a step further to calculate annual enrollment accounting for student flows. This paper adds to the existing evidence on refugee education financing by not only providing a global estimate but also estimating the cost for each host country at pre-primary, primary and secondary education level. In the absence of national inclusive education planning in all host countries that could promote consistent and adequate funding, this disaggregation is particularly useful for host countries and education partners in long term planning and public financial management. It also provides estimates of the unit cost of refugee education at each level for each country, allowing host country governments to quickly estimate financing gaps for new refugee influx. This can lead to improvements in the responsiveness of planning for inclusive education systems. This report is accompanied by a dashboard where host countries can review summaries of country-specific refugee numbers, unit costs, cohort-average annual costs and total costs by level of education. The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 29 This report uses a per capita costing approach that has the advantage of providing a simplified, transparent approximation of global and national funding requirements for refugee education. It is based on the delivery costs of national systems and uses existing data (and in some cases, proxy information) in the absence of complete datasets. Improved reporting on public expenditure and enrollment by host countries would increase the accuracy of these estimates. The model further uses uniform refugee coefficients for all countries. Over time, these areas can be strengthened based on national inclusive education planning and using a detailed cost approach for better approximations of refugee coefficients in each country. Finally, average unit costs can mask regional disparities and the need for regional responses within each host country, because refugee populations are often concentrated in certain areas. This increases the need to develop country-specific refugee education response plans, with clear targeting and prioritization of activities. Cost estimates are likely to increase with the addition of a COVID-19 coefficient or cost mark-up. The pandemic has led to mass school closures around the globe with (unequal) adoption of remote education delivery. The cost of digitized remote education provision may be marginal in some countries and substantial in others, especially in low- income countries and fragile and conflict settings that do not have digital infrastructure in place. Teachers have to be trained to facilitate remote learning, deliver remedial education when schools reopen, and provide mental health and psychosocial support (MHPSS). More teachers may have to be recruited or existing teachers compensated for increased class time. Investments may be required to adjust the scope of curricula to focus on core learning and critical areas of learning loss. School sanitation facilities will have to be upgraded so all students have at least minimum access to water and handwashing facilities when they return to school. More children will be at risk of dropping out and demand-side constraints for poor children may have to be addressed through cash or in-kind transfers. It is estimated that the financing gap to meet SDG4 will increase by up to a third as a result of the pandemic.62 On the other hand, shrinking fiscal space, reduced allocations to the education sector (in absolute terms and/or education’s share of public expenditure), and the risk of reduced official development assistance, may lead to education expenditure remaining constant or even falling. The 2020 GEM Report shows that education expenditure as a share of budget or GDP remained fairly constant in the years following the 2008 financial crisis, but the absolute levels of GDP fell resulting in lower education expenditure.63 Now more than ever, investments in education have to be safeguarded, and additional resources mobilized to finance the interventions required to prevent the erosion of gains made in access to schooling and learning and the further marginalization of vulnerable groups, including refugee children. Support to governments should include capacity building in education sector planning to reduce inefficiencies in public expenditure so limited funding can be stretched as far as possible. There is limited data available on how education expenditure is being reallocated in response to the pandemic, and as such this report provides a pre- COVID-19 baseline of the cost of educating all refugee children. Future iterations of this 62 UN. 2020. Policy Brief: Education during COVID-19 and beyond. 63 World Education Blog. 2020. What are the financial implications of the coronavirus for education? Available at: https://gemreportunesco.wordpress.com/2020/03/24/what-are-the-financial- implications-of-the-coronavirus-for-education/. Accessed on September 30, 2020. 30 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education © Shoot Productions/World Bank work could include an additional mark-up to respond to COVID-19 education interventions once more data are available on the associated costs. While this report focuses on estimating the cost of access to education for refugee children, the importance of improving the quality of education cannot be ignored. Even though many countries have significantly raised educational investments, the world is facing a learning crisis.64 There are large variations by countries – in low-income countries, the share of learning-poor children is 78 percent of children are in learning poverty compared to 11 percent in high-income countries. Learning gains made in the last few years are at risk of being eroded due to the intermittent school closures since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Without, remedial action and a larger focus on foundational learning, the goal of reducing learning poverty by at least half by 2030 is unlikely to be met. This report acknowledges that improving learning outcomes goes beyond the provision of financial resources, and improving access is not sufficient to improve learning. Learning poverty needs to be eliminated in host country populations and refugee children alike, but that process is part of a larger exercise beyond the scope of this analysis. 64 World Bank. 2019. A learning revolution to eradicate learning poverty. The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 31 Box 2: Spotlight on Uganda’s Education Response Plan for Refugees and Host Communities With over 1.4 million refugees at the end of 2019, Uganda is the fourth largest host country for refugees worldwide. It is also the only low-income country among the five countries hosting the largest refugee populations. Of these refugees, over half a million are of primary and secondary school age. This influx has put considerable strain on the delivery of education services in communities that are already severely under-resourced. Despite these challenges, Uganda is serving as a model example in the international community by developing inclusive national education systems supported by a rich policy environment. The Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework for Uganda was launched in May 2017 against the background of the Refugee Act 2006 and the Refugee Regulations 2010 which give refugees access to the same public services as nationals. The Education Response Plan for Refugees and Host Communities (ERP) provides the framework for the delivery of improved education services in response to the humanitarian and developmental crisis in Uganda. The Plan targets 34 refugee hosting sub-counties; refugeeing which the school-age population is over 25 percent larger than the school-age host community population. Education outcomes for these sub-counties are already low with gross enrollment ratios of 19 percent, 121 percent and 18 percent at the Early Childhood Development (ECD), primary and secondary education levels; for refugees in these sub-counties, these figures are 38 percent, 58 percent and 11 percent respectively. Pupil classroom ratios exceed 150 on average across all education levels in host communities. In several public primary schools neighboring settlements, refugee children outnumber those from the host communities. This calls for an integrated approach to improve education services for refugee and host community children alike. Uganda’s response is impeded by inconsistent and inadequate funding, which does not allow for long-term planning and funds only 40 percent of identified needs. The ERP mitigates these hurdles by providing a framework that covers a 3½ year period with identified target populations, priority interventions and costed implementation plans. It targets an average of 676,000 refugee and host community learners per year at an estimated cost of US$395 million. It encompasses all education programmes including ECD, primary, secondary, accelerated education, life skills training and vocational skills training. The costing model is based on targets for each intervention and its associated unit costs. The key interventions include infrastructure development, materials development and procurement, teacher salaries and training, child training, and systems strengthening at the community, district and national levels. 32 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education The estimated cost of reaching an average of 641,000 students annually in ECD, primary and secondary education with improved education services over 3½ years in the ERP is US$287 million. This implies an imputed annual unit cost per student of US$128. While the costing methodologies and target populations differ between Uganda’s ERP and this analysis, the estimated unit cost per refugee student in this paper is US$121 which is only 5 percent less than the ERP estimate. Source: Ministry of Education and Sports. 2018. Education Response Plan for Refugees and Host Communities in Uganda. Uganda. Ensuring refugee children with disabilities have access to education with support from EAC and UNHCR © UNHCR/Antoine Tardy Uganda’s commendable efforts to develop an inclusive national education system marks a paradigm shift from a humanitarian to a developmental approach to tackling the education crisis. It ensures that the education needs of refugees are captured in national systems, can be planned for in a sustainable and cost-effective manner, and supported through a joint approach by government and education partners alike. The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 33 Summary of Findings At the end of 2019, there were about 26 million refugees worldwide, with 20.4 million refugees under the UNHCR mandate and 5.6 million Palestinian refugees under UNRWA’s mandate. There are an additional 3.6 million Venezuelans displaced abroad (VDA). This paper estimates the cost of refugee education in all LICs, LMICs and UMICs that have 7,000 or more refugees registered with UNHCR.65 Given that the refugee population is concentrated in a few countries, or the distribution is highly positively skewed, this methodology accounts for almost 80 percent of all refugees and nearly 100 percent of refugees in LICs, LMICs and UMICs. The scope of this study includes 65 countries with a total 17 million refugees, 2 million asylum seekers and 3 million VDA, of whom over 7 million or 32 percent are of primary or secondary-school age. Developing countries feature disproportionately in the top 15 refugee host countries. The top 15 developing host countries account for 65 percent of all refugees, asylum seekers and VDA worldwide. Amongst the developing countries, Turkey is the largest host country, with 3.9 million refugees and asylum seekers, followed by Colombia and Pakistan. These countries are in close proximity to countries facing emergencies and protracted crises including Syria, Venezuela and Afghanistan, respectively. FIGURE 1. Refugee population by GDP per capita for top 15 refugee hosting countries 4.000.000 75,000.00 Refugees, Asylum Seekers and VDA 60,000.00 3.000.000 GDP per capita 45,000.00 2.000.000 30,000.00 1.000.000 15,000.00 Colombia Turkey Germany Pakistan Uganda United States of America Sudan Iran Lebanon Peru Bangladesh Jordan Ethiopia Dem. Rep. of the Congo France Refugees, Asylum Seekers and VDA GDP per capita (2019 current US$) 65 The median number of refugees, asylum seekers and Venezuelans displaced abroad in all host countries is a little over 9,000 people. 34 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education TABLE 2: Sensitivity analysis of the model No. Base model Scenario assumption Average annual cost assumption (US$ billions) 1. Unit cost of education for LICs increases 4.90 based on historical trends66 Unit cost of education remains 2. fixed over time Unit cost of education for LICs and LMICs 5.11 increases based on historical trends 3. Refugee Lower bound refugee coefficient for all 4.44 coefficient: levels of education: 0.2 Pre-primary/ 4. primary – 0.2 Upper bound refugee coefficient for all 4.99 levels of education: 0.35 Secondary – 0.35 TABLE 3: Total cost for refugee children to complete K-12 education cycle by country income category Income Number of Total base Total refugee Total cost Share of Share Category school-age cost mark-up (US$ school-age of total refugees (US$ billions) (US$ billions) billions) refugees cost Low income 1,861,337 1.71 0.55 2.26 26 3.6 Lower-middle 1,887,390 7.94 2.65 10.59 27 16.8 income Upper-middle 3,288,842 38.51 11.68 50.19 47 79.6 income Total 7,037,568 48.16 14.89 63.05 100 100 66 Where historical trends are not available or the annual growth rate is zero or negative, the average annual growth rate of the income group is used. The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 35 The cohort-average annual cost of providing K-12 years of education to all refugee students in LICs, LMICs and UMICs that host refugees lies between US$4.44 billion and US$5.11 billion. The base model estimates the total financing envelope at US$63 billion in order for the current population of refugee children to complete the K-12 cycle, at an average annual cost of US$4.85 billion. An additional US$443 million is the estimated annual cost for delivering education to refugee children under the UNRWA mandate.67 Table 2 shows variations in the estimate based on changes in the assumptions of the model. In the first two scenarios, the unit costs increase annually based on historical trends. This fixed unit cost assumption is relaxed for LICs and LMICs as unit costs are far lower than UMICs. Allowing unit costs to increase takes into consideration countries’ need to increase investment in education in order to make progress in reducing learning poverty. In scenario 3, the lower bound for the refugee education coefficient is assumed for all levels of education; in scenario 4, the upper bound is assumed for all levels of education. Prioritization of investments in LICs and LMICs will ensure that over half of all school-age refugee children are reached. While LICs and LMICs account for half of school-age refugees, their share of the financing envelope is only 20 percent (see Table 3). This is also reflective of global education expenditure trends where 65 percent of global education expenditure is spent in high income countries compared to only 0.5 percent in LICs even though they have roughly the same number of children.68 Given the higher unit cost of education in UMICs, the share of financing required in these countries is also higher. The average unit cost for refugee education varies by income-categorization and level of education. The average unit cost for refugee education is US$1,051. In LICs, LMICs and UMICs, this figure is US$171, US$663 and US$2,085 respectively. The unit cost for refugee students in UMICs is almost 12 times higher on average than that for LICs and 3 times higher than that for LMICs. There are also large variations by level of education: average refugee unit costs globally are US$1,156, US$925 and US$1,171 for pre-primary, primary and secondary education, respectively. Table 4 provides the unit costs of education for local and refugee students by level of education. 67 UNRWA schools enroll approximately 526,000 students annually at an average unit cost of US$841.50. A case study on the education of Palestinian refugees in UNRWA schools is presented in Annex 7. 68 Global Education Monitoring Report. 2019. Migration, displacement and education: building bridges, not walls. Paris: UNESCO. 36 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education TABLE 4: Average annual unit cost for native and refugee students Average annual unit costs for local Average annual unit costs for refugee students (2020 US$) students (2020 US$) Pre-primary Primary Secondary Pre-primary Primary Secondary Low income 123 95 181 142 114 244 Lower-middle 535 412 666 618 494 900 income Upper-middle 2,095 1,612 1,596 2,417 1,934 2,155 income Low and 1,002 771 867 1,156 925 1,171 middle income TABLE 5: Cohort-average annual cost for refugee education by income-category (US$ millions) Pre-primary Primary Secondary Total Low income 1 25 148 174 Lower-middle income 3 74 738 815 Upper-middle income 46 1,045 2,770 3,861 Total 50 1,144 3,656 4,850 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 37 As a result of higher unit costs required to deliver secondary education, greater investment is required in the subsector to allow for completion of the K-12 education cycle. The cost of secondary education for refugee students accounts for 75 percent of the total annual financing required for refugee education. The cost of secondary education in UMICs accounts for over 57 percent of the annual financing envelope. Prioritization of investments in primary education alone will therefore create bottlenecks for the transition into and completion of secondary education. Box 3: A Case for Investing in Secondary Education for Refugee Children The gap between access to secondary education for refugees and children worldwide is strikingly large. Only 31 percent of refugees access secondary education compared to 84 percent of children globally. However, this global average masks large variations, especially in LICs and LMICs. In Sub-Saharan Africa, where most out-of-school children reside, the gross secondary enrollment rate is only 47 percent on average. Due to the sheer lack of secondary school spaces, host countries struggle to provide access for local students, let alone refugees. Secondary education is the gateway to higher education and improved employment opportunities, while providing an incentive for improved retention and completion in primary education. There is also abundant evidence of the impacts of secondary education on social outcomes, including delayed pregnancy, prevention of child marriage, reduction in child labor and exploitation, improved health outcomes and behaviors, and reduced crime and violence.69 However, secondary education comes at an age where children, and especially refugee children, come under even more pressure to support their families through employment or domestic work. Increased investments in the subsector could reduce these barriers. The share of total aid to education committed to secondary education was 19 percent in 2015, compared to 43 percent for basic education. This paper shows that secondary education is simply far more expensive than primary education. The annual average cost for secondary education for refugee students is estimated at US$3.65 billion for LICs and MICs, compared to US$1.2 billion for pre-primary and primary education. Host country governments are unlikely to be able to afford this without sufficient external financing. Investing in secondary education builds durable, sustainable resources that will benefit host countries and refugees alike. In Mozambique, the construction of a secondary school near a refugee camp means that both the host community and refugees will have access to secondary education for the first time. Where secondary education systems are smaller than primary education systems and host community participation is low, expanding secondary 69 For a comprehensive literature review, see: World Bank. 2005. Expanding Opportunities and Building Competencies for Young People – A New Agenda for Secondary Education. Washington, D.C: World Bank. 38 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education education can lead to economies of scale, efficiency gains and a reduction in the unit cost of secondary education delivery for the host country. Building schools, training teachers, developing innovative remedial and catch-up programmes – these solutions will have a lasting impact on host communities long after the refugees have returned to their countries of origin or become integrated. UNHCR is in the process of setting up a new initiative, the Secondary Youth Education Programme, dedicated to improving secondary education prospects for refugees and host communities. Since 2017, it has been piloted in Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda and Pakistan and will be expanded substantially in the coming years. Interventions include placing advisors with education ministries, increasing the number of female teachers, building and refurbishing infrastructure and providing direct cash transfers to households. The cohort-average annual refugee education cost as a percentage of public expenditure on primary and secondary education in host countries is 3.8 percent on average. It averages 4.7 percent, 2.1 percent and 4.3 percent in LICs, LMICs and UMICs, respectively. However, these averages mask large variations between countries as refugee populations are concentrated in a handful of countries. Table 6 shows the ten countries with the highest ratio of annual refugee education costs to public primary and secondary education expenditure. South Sudan and Lebanon would require almost a 60 percent increase in their annual expenditures to finance refugee education, signaling not only the large number of refugees that the countries host but also the current limited public expenditure on education. In comparison, 36 out of the 65 countries studied would require less than a 1 percent increase in their annual primary and secondary education expenditure in order to finance refugee education. Figures 2A – 2C show the distribution of the cohort-average annual cost for refugee education as a percentage of public primary and secondary education expenditure by country and income group. Given that private expenditure towards education might be limited for refugee populations, host countries’ public expenditure on education will have to expand to absorb refugee populations. In countries where the share of private enrollment is high and so public expenditure on education is relatively low, the required expansion for refugees represents a higher share of current public spending. For instance, in Lebanon where the share of private enrollment is 72 percent and there are an estimated 379,000 school-age refugee children, the required expansion for refugee students represents over 58 percent of current public spending. While this holds true for a handful of countries, for many others the additional financing requirements are not substantial. The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 39 TABLE 6: Refugee education cost as a percentage of public education expenditure Country Region Income Group Avg. annual costs for refugees (% of public primary and secondary education expenditure) Peru Latin America & Upper Middle Income 5.2 Caribbean Sudan Sub-Saharan Africa Lower Middle Income 5.3 Djibouti Middle East & North Africa Lower Middle Income 5.9 Turkey Europe & Central Asia Upper Middle Income 6.3 Chad Sub-Saharan Africa Low Income 10.8 Bangladesh South Asia Lower Middle Income 11.0 Uganda Sub-Saharan Africa Low Income 11.1 Jordan Middle East & North Africa Upper Middle Income 16.1 Lebanon Middle East & North Africa Upper Middle Income 58.2 South Sudan Sub-Saharan Africa Low Income 61.2 40 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education FIGURE 2A. Average annual cost for refugee education as percentage of public expenditure on primary and secondary education – Low income countries 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Chad South Sudan Central African Rep. Mali Liberia Dem. Rep. of the Congo Rwanda Niger Uganda United Rep. of Tanzania Somalia Brurundi Ethiopia Nepal Syrian Arab. Rep. Mozambique Togo Yemen Afghanistan Burkina Faso Malawi FIGURE 2B. Average annual cost for refugee education as percentage of public expenditure on primary and secondary education – Lower middle- income countries Lower Middle Income Countries 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Sudan Bangladesh Paua New Guinea Egypt Angola Congo Cameroon Mauritania Djibouti Zimbabwe Zambia Kenya Pakistan Indonesia Morocco India Nigeria Ghana Senegal The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 41 FIGURE 2C. Average annual cost for refugee education as percentage of public expenditure on primary and secondary education – Upper middle- income countries Upper middle-income countries 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Turkey Lebanon Malaysia Libya South Africa Bulgaria Guyana Peru Jordan Serbia Iraq Colombia Armenia Iran (Islamic Rep. of) Costa Rica Ecuador Dominican Republic China Russian Federation Argentina Mexico Brazil Thailand Venezuela Algeria Box 4: Estimating the Cost of Inclusive Education for Syrian Refugees The Syrian conflict has displaced millions of people:of the 26 million refugees and asylum seekers documented worldwide, more than a quarter are of Syrian origin. Over 40 percent of these refugees are below 18 years of age.70 Three countries – Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan – host 80 percent of Syrian refugees. This has created substantial pressure on the education systems of these countries. In Lebanon, Syrian refugee children account for a third of all children enrolled in formal education. While a significant majority of refugee children access primary education in Jordan, there is a sharp observable drop in enrollment for children aged 10 years and over. Despite strong political will and domestic and international financial commitments, over 800,000 Syrian refugee children remain out of school.71 70 UNHCR database on refugees – June 2020. 71 No Lost Generation Partners. 2019. Investing in the Future: Protection and Learning for all Syrian Children and Youth. 42 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education This report estimates the annual financing envelope required to provide inclusive education for refugees in Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan at US$2.13 billion, which accounts for 44 percent of the total annual financing envelope. Over 70 percent of this amount is required to provide secondary education to refugee children, while the remaining 30 percent covers pre-primary and primary education. This clearly indicates the importance of investing in secondary education to promote completion of the full K-12 education cycle. Estimated Average unit Cohort-average annual cost (US$ millions) school-age cost of refugee refugees education Pre-primary Primary Secondary Total (US$) Turkey 1,148,341 2,158 22 492 1,027 1,541 Lebanon 378,698 1,161 2 48 338 388 Jordan 261,171 1,160 2 53 143 198 Total 261,171 26 593 1,508 2,127 The Syrian crisis response is primarily coordinated through the Supporting the future of Syria and the Region conferences, conducted annually since 2016. At the first conference, donors pledged US$1.4 billion for education, of which a little over 70 percent was received. In 2017, this fell to 52 percent of the funds required.72 Financing towards education remains inadequate, with 8.9 percent of grants and 14 percent of loans, amounting to a total of US$619 million, being directed to the sector in 2019.73 This accounts for less than 30 percent of the annual financing envelope required to educate all refugee children in Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon as estimated in this report. Beyond addressing supply side barriers through increased financing, several demand side barriers to education persist for Syrian refugees. Poverty rates for Syrians are estimated at between 51 and 61 percent in Jordan and between 37 and 50 percent in Lebanon.74 Poor autonomy due to lack of financial stability is caused by restrictions imposed on employment in the formal sector. Apart from the opportunity cost of education, indirect costs can also be prohibitive. In a survey of Syrian households in Lebanon, the most common reasons for not attending school included the inability to afford the cost of transportation to school and educational materials.75 In its tenth year, the conflict in Syria continues to disrupt the lives of millions of children – providing a future through quality education presents a daunting challenge, but is nothing less than a moral imperative. 72 Save the Children. 2018. Time to act: a costed plan to deliver quality education to every last refugee child. 73 Supporting the Future of Syria and the Region. 2019. Post-Brussels conference financial tracking. Report Eight. 74 No Lost Generation Partners. 2019. Investing in the Future: Protection and Learning for all Syrian Children and Youth. 75 UNHCR, UNICEF and WFP. 2018. Vulnerability Assessment of Syrian Refugees in Lebanon. The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 43 © Dominic Chavez/World Bank 44 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education Investing in Refugee Education Challenges remain in funding refugee education adequately and in a coordinated manner. Refugee education financing has historically followed donor financing patterns, which are inadequate, largely inflexible and unpredictable – all of which hinders the effective long-term allocation of resources that are already limited. In 2016, only 2.7 percent of total humanitarian aid was directed towards education, far below the target of 4 percent. This amounted to US$303 million, which while reaching a historic high, only met 48 percent of the funding requested.76 While combined humanitarian and development support to refugee education amounted to US$800 million in 2016,77 this would have to increase more than six times to meet the cohort average annual cost of refugee education of US$4.85 billion estimated in this paper. The share of the total cost of refugee education that will be absorbed by host governments depends on their income level, the number of refugees residing in the country and the political environment. Save the Children (2018) estimates that approximately 56 percent of the funding for refugee education would have to be externally financed. This means that US$2.72 billion of the total financing envelope of US$4.85 billion would have to be financed through a joint humanitarian and development response. This still amounts to more than three times the 2016 levels of external financing for education in emergencies. Increased investments in refugee education should be complemented by clear financing targets, resource mobilization plans and costed refugee and host community education response plans. While an increasing number of countries are including refugees in their national education systems, refugee education needs are largely invisible in host country budgets due to inadequate domestic financing as well as insufficient data on refugee numbers, the cost of scaling up refugee education programmes and effective coordination and planning. This paper contributes to the policy agenda by providing unit costs of refugee education for each host country by level of education, thereby catalyzing renewed discourse on responsibility-sharing, resource mobilization and emergency and developmental response plans for education. While historical levels, mechanisms and coordination of refugee education financing were lacking, recent international commitments and innovations have been gaining momentum. The 2016 World Humanitarian Summit agreed to the Grand Bargain and the New Way of Working aimed at bringing together humanitarian and 76 Education for All Global Education Monitoring Report. 2017. Aid to education is stagnating and not going to countries most in need. Policy paper 31. Paris: UNESCO. 77 Global Education Monitoring Report. 2019. Migration, displacement and education: building bridges, not walls. Paris: UNESCO. The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 45 © UNHCR/Elizabeth Marie Stuart development assistance. This led to the launch of ECW, the first fund dedicated to education in emergencies. The ECW is largely underfunded and needs to be strengthened in order to play a more central, coordinating role in the humanitarian-development nexus. In 2018, the Global Partnership for Education (GPE) launched its Funding and Financing Framework that gives additional weighting for countries affected by conflict and violence in its needs-based allocation formula for grants. Further, the European Union (EU) committed to increasing its education in emergencies budget to 8 percent of its annual humanitarian budget in 2018, and to 10 percent in 2019. Moreover, the partnership between UNHCR and Educate A Child has funded the enrollment of over 1.2 million out-of-school refugee and internally displaced children since 2012. 46 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education The World Bank allocated US$2 billion to the International Development Association (IDA) Regional Sub-Window for Refugees and Host Communities (RSW) during fiscal years 2018-2020, half of which was grants. This will allow for multi-year, predictable financing, particularly for protracted crises situations. As of May 2020, US$1.8 billion of the RSW has been allocated to refugee-response programmes complemented by US$3.4 billion in IDA funding. Several of these programmes focus specifically on education – the Cameroon Education Reform Support Project (IDA – US$130 million, RSW – US$30 million), the Djibouti Expanding Opportunities for Learning Project (IDA – US$15 million, RSW – US$5 million), the Niger Learning Improvement for Results in Education Project (IDA – US$140 million, RSW – US$40 million) and the Bangladesh Additional Financing for Reaching Out of School Children II (IDA – US$25 million, RSW – US$20.84 million). Annex 8 shows the list of approved projects and associated funding allocated under the RSW. The World Bank also has a portfolio of over US$1.11 billion IDA in education projects operational in fragile states. Further, under the IDA-19 replenishment, the Window for Host Communities and Refugees (WHR) will finance up to US$2.2 billion in operations, including a dedicated sub-window of US$1 billion to respond to the impact of COVID-19 on refugees.78 Additional funding for special thematic areas has also been pledged. The 2018 Charlevoix Declaration on Quality Education for Girls, Adolescent Girls and Women in Developing Countries, committed US$3.8 billion for education for women and girls in conflict and crisis. Further, the Supporting Syria and the Region Conference 2018 pledged grant support amounting to US$4.4 billion for 2018 and US$3.4 billion 2018-2019. Of this amount, almost 15 percent or US$497 million was allocated to the education sector in 2018. International financial institutions and governments pledged US$21.2 billion in loans for 2018-2020, although the amount invested in the education sector is unclear. Greater efforts are being made to direct external financing through budgetary support. This is backed by the 2016 New York Declaration on Migrants and Refugees, which agreed upon the core elements of a Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework and the development of a global compact on refugees and a global compact for safe, orderly and regular migration. The 2016 Declaration committed to ensuring that all refugee children have access to education within a few months of arrival in the host country and that host country governments should be supported in facilitating this through budgetary provision. The 2017 Djibouti Declaration on Refugee Education saw Intergovernmental Authority for Development (IGAD) member states79 commit to delivering quality education to refugees through the development of inclusive national education sector plans by 2020. Analysis by the Education Commission showed that even after bilateral, domestic and multilateral financing goals were met, there would still be an education financing gap of US$10 billion by 2020 and US$25 billion by 2030. This has led to suggestions for new types of financing. One of these is to establish the 78 IDA. 2020. Window for Host Communities and Refugees. Available at: https://ida.worldbank.org/ replenishments/ida19-replenishment/windows-host-communities-refugees. [Accessed on: 27 July 2020]. 79 The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) member states are Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan and Uganda. The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 47 © Dominic Chavez/World Bank International Financing Facility for Education (IFFEd) which would allow multilateral banks to mobilize funds from international markets and provide subsidized loans to beneficiary countries. In the first round of funding, donor countries would provide the IFFEd with US$2 billion in guarantees, which would help mobilize an additional US$8 billion and provide a new source of financing for education. Currently, the UK government has committed £300 million to the financing facility.80 Innovations like these can increase the total amount of financing available for education by tapping into sources that were previously unavailable. While low-income countries might struggle to take on loans to support refugee education, such financing instruments could help close the gap for middle income countries. External financing should be a function of the resource level of the country and the proportion of school-age refugees to existing children. This costing methodology is built on the principle of inclusive education systems where refugee children receive a quality of education “no better, no worse” than that of host countries. As such, for most countries, it does not represent substantial levels of investment, but rather modest increments to what host countries have already committed. Finally, support for refugee education should be part of an overall effort to improve the learning outcomes of all children and reduce learning poverty in the host countries. 80 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. 2018. https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/ partnership/?p=33981 48 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education Annex 1: Costing Methodology The costing formula begins by estimating the annual unit cost for a refugee student at a particular level of education (or per student cost), agglomerates for all refugee students in a particular year in a particular host country, sums over K-12 years of education, and then aggregating across all host countries to derive the total envelope required. The total cost of refugee education is given by the formula where c denotes the host country, y denotes the year and l denotes the level of education. Estimating annual enrollment and cohort movements. The model takes into account the cohort structure of the school-age refugee population meaning pre-primary school-age children transition in to primary, a share of primary school-age children transitions in to secondary, and a share of secondary school-age children completes secondary education each year. This implies that for a child aged 5 years the model accounts for thirteen years of the full education cycle compared to a child aged 17 years for whom the model accounts for one year of secondary education. The figure below illustrates these cohort flows.   Yr1 Yr2 Yr3 Yr4 Yr5 Yr6 Yr7 Yr8 Yr9 Yr10 Yr11 Yr12 Yr13 Pre-primary                                                             Annual enrollment                                 Primary                                                                                                                                                   Secondary                                                                                               Transition out                           The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 49 Estimating the unit cost for refugee education. Unit costs for refugee students are based on unit costs for local students which are estimated as public expenditure on education l, y, c/ public enrolment l, y, c. The unit cost for pre-primary education is calculated as (1 + ECE coefficient) x unit cost for primary education. The ECE coefficient is assumed to be 30 percent in this analysis. Unit cost for refugee education each year is (1 + refugee coefficient) x unit cost of education by level of education. Refugee coefficients are assumed to be 20 percent at pre-primary and primary education and 35 percent at secondary education. Unit costs are then inflation adjusted to estimate costs over the K-12 education cycle. A. The costing model adopted in this paper makes the following assumptions: Right age of enrollment. The model assumes that refugee students aged 5-11 years and 12-17 years are enrolled in primary and secondary education respectively. UNHCR estimates that refugee students lose 3 to 4 years of schooling as a result of conflict.81 This assumption will overestimate or underestimate the total cost of education depending on the age distribution of the specific refugee population. Uniform age distribution of refugee students. UNHCR collects demographic data on refugees, dividing populations into the age groups of 0-4 years, 5-11 years, 12-17 years, 18-59 years and greater than 60. The model assumes that school age children within the brackets 5-11 years and 12-17 years are equally distributed across each grade of primary and secondary respectively. Since there is insufficient demographic data on asylum seekers and Venezuelans displaced abroad, it further assumes that the age distribution for these groups is the same as that for refugees. Pre-primary education is costed as a percentage increase on primary education costs. The UNHCR demographic divisions account for 7 years of primary and 6 years of secondary education. The model assumes that the first year of primary education corresponds to pre-primary education, or that children aged 5 years are enrolled in pre-primary education. Given the specific requirements of ECE, an ECE coefficient is added to the unit costs for primary education in each host country for children aged 5 years. The EFA-GEM 2015 report estimates that the unit costs for pre-primary education in LICs and LMICs was a little over 130 percent of primary education unit costs in 2012. The costing model used here assumes an ECE coefficient of 30 percent. Grade-wise transition of 100 percent. The model assumes that repetition and dropout rates amongst refugee students are zero. This assumption is unlikely to hold for refugee student populations due to poor education outcomes resulting from conflict- related trauma, language of instruction mismatch, high opportunity costs of education and lost years of schooling due to conflict. Furthermore, this assumption implies that the internal efficiency of refugee student education is higher than that of host country systems. This will lead to an underestimation of the costs of refugee education. However, the costing model is cautious about unduly favoring host countries with high repetition and dropout rates. 81 UNHCR. 2016. Missing out: Refugee education in crisis. 50 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education Unit cost of education remains constant over thirteen years. This assumption will lead to an underestimation of the total cost of refugee education as unit costs are likely to rise as governments make investments to improve education quality. The unit cost of education for each level in each host country will be computed as the average of the unit cost over the last 5 years or more where data for recent years is unavailable. This ensures that the model captures trends in unit costs, since a constant figure is used across the thirteen years. While the base unit cost remains constant, it is inflation adjusted for each year. The model assumes that the US dollar inflation rate remains constant at the 2018 rate of 2.4 percent.82 This assumption is relaxed in the sensitivity analysis. B. Caveats to the costing model: (a) the number of refugees in each country is likely to be underestimated as not all school-age children are registered with UNHCR; (b) the model only estimates the cost of education for the existing population of refugee students and makes no assumptions about new influxes or repatriations of refugees; (c) the model does not explicitly cost improvements in education quality; and (d) the model uses current US dollars and not PPP-converted dollars and as such these estimates should not be used for cross-country comparisons. C. The paper uses the following terms to report unit costs and average annual costs: Unit cost of education: This refers to the unit cost of education at pre-primary, primary or secondary level for a particular country. Average unit cost of education by country: This refers to the average unit cost by level of education for a particular country. It is calculated as the weighted average of unit costs by level of education where the weighting is are enrollment by level of education divided by total enrollment in the base year. Cohort-average annual cost: This refers to the total cost of education as estimated using the cohort approach described above divided by thirteen years from 2020 to 2032. It does not refer to the average unit cost of education by country times the number of refugees. 82 OECD. 2019. Main economic indicators. 19:8. Paris: OECD Publishing. The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 51 Annex 2: Number of refugees and unit costs by host country Number of School-age Host Country Unit Cost (US$)83 Host Country Unit Cost (2020 US$)84 Refugees refugees Primary Year of Secondary Year of Primary Secondary reporting reporting LOW INCOME MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA SYRIAN ARAB 28,282 9,096 343.51± 2007 288.63± 2007 467.56 392.86 REPUBLIC YEMEN 279,193 46,235 173.77± 2018 113.33± 2018 182.21 118.83 SOUTH ASIA AFGHANISTAN 72,479 26,249 57.99 2017 63.08 2017 62.27 67.73 NEPAL 19,634 1,753 119.61 2015 113.73± 2018 134.67 119.25 83 Host country unit cost data represented here is calculated as total public expenditure divided by total public enrollment at each level of education based on the latest available data reported on UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS). For countries where this data was not reported (marked with ±), it has been estimated based on data on public expenditure per student at each level of education as a share of GDP per capita. 84 Unit cost data adjusted for inflation using constant inflation rate of 2.4 percent. 52 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education Number of School-age Host Country Unit Cost (US$)83 Host Country Unit Cost (2020 US$)84 Refugees refugees Primary Year of Secondary Year of Primary Secondary reporting reporting SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA BURKINA FASO 25,902 11,496 96.95 2015 159.87 2016 109.16 175.78 BURUNDI 87,476 34,891 38.06 2013 76.29 2013 44.94 90.07 CENTRAL AFRICAN 7,486 2,553 21.41± 2018 77.54± 2018 22.45 81.31 REPUBLIC CHAD 446,431 176,739 49.14 2012 152.65 2013 59.41 180.22 DEM. REP. OF THE 526,931 229,735 33.26 2013 25.64 2013 39.27 30.28 CONGO ETHIOPIA 734,812 307,189 49.34 2015 106.87 2015 55.55 120.33 LIBERIA 8,254 3,079 106.85 2018 468.48 2018 112.05 491.23 MALAWI 44,385 16,627 30.61 2016 93.13 2016 33.66 102.40 MALI 27,678 12,121 115.39 2016 275.67 2016 126.87 303.10 MOZAMBIQUE 25,691 8,226 45.82 2013 173.85 2013 54.10 205.24 NIGER 217,925 94,202 50.45 2017 73.53 2017 54.17 78.95 RWANDA 145,552 48,084 34.47 2018 192.24 2018 36.14 201.58 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 53 Number of School-age Host Country Unit Cost (US$)83 Host Country Unit Cost (2020 US$)84 Refugees refugees Primary Year of Secondary Year of Primary Secondary reporting reporting SOMALIA 35,672 10,708 50.05± 2018 421.82± 2017 52.48 452.93 SOUTH SUDAN 301,995 133,926 57.10± 2015 147.80± 2015 64.29 166.41 TOGO 12,664 4,874 132.93 2016 66.99 2016 146.15 73.65 UGANDA 1,381,122 586,860 45.92 2014 130.87± 2014 52.94 150.89 UNITED REPUBLIC 271,729 96,694 71.59 2014 164.28 2014 82.54 189.40 OF TANZANIA LOWER MIDDLE INCOME EAST ASIA & PACIFIC INDONESIA 13,657 2,141 596.65 2015 595.92 2015 671.77 670.95 PAPUA NEW GUINEA 9,840 3,149 340.03± 2018 1,682.39± 2018 356.54 1,764.11 MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA DJIBOUTI 30,794 9,632 1,168.27± 2018 21.58± 2018 1,225.02 22.63 EGYPT 324,736 71,524 383.44 2017 538.03 2017 411.72 577.70 54 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education Number of School-age Host Country Unit Cost (US$)83 Host Country Unit Cost (2020 US$)84 Refugees refugees Primary Year of Secondary Year of Primary Secondary reporting reporting MOROCCO 9,756 2,233 608.15 2013 1,002.84 2013 717.97 1,183.94 SOUTH ASIA BANGLADESH 854,820 297,481 112.42 2012 2,341.01 2016 135.91 2,573.96 INDIA 207,334 66,347 200.57 2013 414.37 2013 236.79 489.20 PAKISTAN 1,428,147 529,186 142.37 2015 281.92 2015 160.30 317.41 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA ANGOLA 55,994 21,047 95.71± 2006 390.36± 2006 133.40 544.08 CAMEROON 416,208 166,707 76.59 2013 236.69 2012 90.42 286.14 CONGO 40,086 13,837 257.74± 2018 365.13± 2018 270.26 382.86 GHANA 13,463 3,761 159.73 2014 385.02 2014 184.16 443.90 KENYA 489,747 204,241 169.23 2015 364.34± 2018 190.53 382.03 MAURITANIA 86,458 34,652 126.13 2016 180.57 2016 138.68 198.54 NIGERIA 55,199 19,249 203.57± 2018 504.14± 2018 213.46 528.63 SENEGAL 16,273 6,817 171.06 2016 190.97 2016 188.08 209.98 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 55 Number of School-age Host Country Unit Cost (US$)83 Host Country Unit Cost (2020 US$)84 Refugees refugees Primary Year of Secondary Year of Primary Secondary reporting reporting SUDAN 1,071,034 405,774 112.85± 2009 137.47± 2018 146.49 144.15 ZAMBIA 62,596 22,276 75.46± 2018 98.65± 2005 79.12 140.79 ZIMBABWE 20,492 7,336 1,973.93 2014 1,561.66 2014 2,275.79 1,800.47 UPPER MIDDLE INCOME EAST ASIA & PACIFIC CHINA 304,041 97,293 3,115.42± 2018 1,368.21± 2018 3,266.75 1,434.67 MALAYSIA 179,744 26,148 1,849.32 2017 2,653.51 2017 1,985.69 2,849.18 THAILAND 98,418 30,866 1,655.27 2013 830.84 2013 1,954.19 980.88 EUROPE & CENTRAL ASIA ARMENIA 18,158 5,811 396.48 2017 627.34 2017 425.72 673.60 BULGARIA 21,521 6,887 1,506.53 2013 1,622.72 2013 1,778.60 1,915.77 RUSSIAN FEDERATION 43,895 14,046 2,257.69± 2018 1,766.48± 2012 2,367.36 2,135.55 SERBIA 26,715 8,549 2,563.63 2015 650.06 2015 2,886.39 731.90 56 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education Number of School-age Host Country Unit Cost (US$)83 Host Country Unit Cost (2020 US$)84 Refugees refugees Primary Year of Secondary Year of Primary Secondary reporting reporting TURKEY 3,907,788 1,148,341 1,603.01± 2015 1,323.21± 2015 1,804.83 1,489.80 LATIN AMERICA & CARIBBEAN ARGENTINA 185,268 11,720 2,668.15 2017 3,682.72 2017 2,864.90 3,954.29 BRAZIL 363,676 116,376 2,242.32 2015 2,405.36 2015 2,524.63 2,708.20 COLOMBIA 1,781,002 99,102 1,311.84 2017 1,257.65 2017 1,408.58 1,350.39 COSTA RICA 114,235 36,555 2,867.94 2017 3,184.28 2017 3,079.42 3,419.09 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 34,549 1,053 1,362.42 2017 1,638.37 2017 1,462.88 1,759.19 ECUADOR 503,644 161,166 762.51 2016 439.26 2016 838.39 482.97 GUYANA 22,079 7,065 364.49 2012 496.29 2012 440.64 599.98 MEXICO 150,985 48,315 1,334.61 2016 1,430.20 2016 1,467.42 1,572.52 PERU 867,821 277,703 970.36 2017 1,283.19 2017 1,041.92 1,377.82 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 57 Number of School-age Host Country Unit Cost (US$)83 Host Country Unit Cost (2020 US$)84 Refugees refugees Primary Year of Secondary Year of Primary Secondary reporting reporting VENEZUELA (BOLIVARIAN REP. OF) 67,804 30,443 2,873.76± 2014 2,376.07± 2014 3,313.21 2,739.42 MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA ALGERIA 100,270 32,086 473.19± 2018 736.53± 2018 496.18 772.31 IRAN (ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF) 979,468 313,430 823.75 2018 1,249.94 2018 863.77 1,310.65 IRAQ 286,930 77,128 220.00± 2010 638.29± 2007 278.88 868.80 JORDAN 744,989 261,171 825.27 2017 862.93 2017 886.12 926.56 LEBANON 928,279 378,698 452.78± 2013 1,261.93 2013 534.55 1,489.82 LIBYA 45,458 10,062 873.64± 2006 819.94± 2010 1,217.68 1,039.40 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SOUTH AFRICA 277,581 88,826 1,051.83 2018 1,267.24 2018 1,102.92 1,328.80 58 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education Annex 3: Refugee Education Financing – Pre-primary Pre-primary Pre-primary unit cost Cohort-average annual cost Total cost level refugees (2020 US$) (US$ millions) (US$ millions) Local Refugee Refugee Base Refugee Total Base Refugee Total Student Mark-up Student Mark-up Mark-up LOW INCOME MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA SYRIAN ARAB 704 607.83 93.51 701.34 0.033 0.005 0.038 0.428 0.066 0.493 REPUBLIC YEMEN 3,251 236.87 36.44 273.32 0.059 0.009 0.068 0.770 0.118 0.889 SOUTH ASIA AFGHANISTAN 2,429 80.95 12.45 93.40 0.015 0.002 0.017 0.197 0.030 0.227 NEPAL 134 175.07 26.93 202.01 0.002 0.000 0.002 0.023 0.004 0.027 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 59 Pre-primary Pre-primary unit cost Cohort-average annual cost Total cost level refugees (2020 US$) (US$ millions) (US$ millions) Local Refugee Refugee Base Refugee Total Base Refugee Total Student Mark-up Student Mark-up Mark-up SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA BURKINA FASO 998 141.91 21.83 163.74 0.011 0.002 0.013 0.142 0.022 0.163 BURUNDI 2,870 58.42 8.99 67.41 0.013 0.002 0.015 0.168 0.026 0.193 CENTRAL AFRICAN 233 29.18 4.49 33.67 0.001 0.000 0.001 0.007 0.001 0.008 REPUBLIC CHAD 15,102 77.23 11.88 89.12 0.090 0.014 0.104 1.166 0.179 1.346 DEM. REP. OF 20,836 51.05 7.85 58.91 0.082 0.013 0.094 1.064 0.164 1.227 THE CONGO ETHIOPIA 25,178 72.21 11.11 83.32 0.140 0.022 0.161 1.818 0.280 2.098 LIBERIA 228 145.66 22.41 168.07 0.003 0.000 0.003 0.033 0.005 0.038 MALAWI 1,355 43.76 6.73 50.49 0.005 0.001 0.005 0.059 0.009 0.068 MALI 1,093 164.93 25.37 190.31 0.014 0.002 0.016 0.180 0.028 0.208 MOZAMBIQUE 675 70.32 10.82 81.14 0.004 0.001 0.004 0.047 0.007 0.055 NIGER 8,826 70.42 10.83 81.25 0.048 0.007 0.055 0.621 0.096 0.717 RWANDA 3,854 46.99 7.23 54.22 0.014 0.002 0.016 0.181 0.028 0.209 60 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education Pre-primary Pre-primary unit cost Cohort-average annual cost Total cost level refugees (2020 US$) (US$ millions) (US$ millions) Local Refugee Refugee Base Refugee Total Base Refugee Total Student Mark-up Student Mark-up Mark-up SOMALIA 890 68.23 10.50 78.72 0.005 0.001 0.005 0.061 0.009 0.070 SOUTH SUDAN 11,833 83.58 12.86 96.44 0.076 0.012 0.088 0.989 0.152 1.141 TOGO 493 190.00 29.23 219.23 0.007 0.001 0.008 0.094 0.014 0.108 UGANDA 50,077 68.83 10.59 79.42 0.265 0.041 0.306 3.447 0.530 3.977 UNITED REPUBLIC 8,074 107.30 16.51 123.80 0.067 0.010 0.077 0.866 0.133 1.000 OF TANZANIA LOWER MIDDLE INCOME EAST ASIA & PACIFIC INDONESIA 178 873.31 134.35 1,007.66 0.012 0.002 0.014 0.156 0.024 0.180 PAPUA NEW GUINEA 267 463.51 71.31 534.81 0.010 0.001 0.011 0.124 0.019 0.143 MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA DJIBOUTI 769 1,592.52 245.00 1,837.53 0.094 0.014 0.109 1.224 0.188 1.412 EGYPT 5,863 535.23 82.34 617.57 0.241 0.037 0.279 3.138 0.483 3.621 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 61 Pre-primary Pre-primary unit cost Cohort-average annual cost Total cost level refugees (2020 US$) (US$ millions) (US$ millions) Local Refugee Refugee Base Refugee Total Base Refugee Total Student Mark-up Student Mark-up Mark-up MOROCCO 188 933.37 143.59 1,076.96 0.013 0.002 0.016 0.175 0.027 0.202 SOUTH ASIA BANGLADESH 25,649 176.68 27.18 203.86 0.349 0.054 0.402 4.532 0.697 5.229 INDIA 5,628 307.83 47.36 355.19 0.133 0.021 0.154 1.732 0.267 1.999 PAKISTAN 44,491 208.39 32.06 240.45 0.713 0.110 0.823 9.272 1.426 10.698 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA ANGOLA 1,937 173.42 26.68 200.10 0.026 0.004 0.030 0.336 0.052 0.388 CAMEROON 15,224 117.54 18.08 135.62 0.138 0.021 0.159 1.790 0.275 2.065 CONGO 1,139 351.33 54.05 405.38 0.031 0.005 0.036 0.400 0.062 0.462 GHANA 303 239.41 36.83 276.24 0.006 0.001 0.006 0.073 0.011 0.084 KENYA 16,467 247.69 38.11 285.80 0.314 0.048 0.362 4.079 0.627 4.706 MAURITANIA 3,037 180.29 27.74 208.03 0.042 0.006 0.049 0.548 0.084 0.632 NIGERIA 1,724 277.49 42.69 320.19 0.037 0.006 0.042 0.478 0.074 0.552 SENEGAL 574 244.50 37.62 282.12 0.011 0.002 0.012 0.140 0.022 0.162 62 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education Pre-primary Pre-primary unit cost Cohort-average annual cost Total cost level refugees (2020 US$) (US$ millions) (US$ millions) Local Refugee Refugee Base Refugee Total Base Refugee Total Student Mark-up Student Mark-up Mark-up SUDAN 34,668 190.44 29.30 219.74 0.508 0.078 0.586 6.602 1.016 7.618 ZAMBIA 1,826 102.86 15.82 118.68 0.014 0.002 0.017 0.188 0.029 0.217 ZIMBABWE 589 2,958.52 455.16 3,413.68 0.134 0.021 0.155 1.743 0.268 2.011 UPPER MIDDLE INCOME EAST ASIA & PACIFIC CHINA 8,253 4,246.78 653.35 4,900.13 2.696 0.415 3.111 35.047 5.392 40.439 MALAYSIA 2,371 2,581.40 397.14 2,978.53 0.471 0.072 0.543 6.121 0.942 7.063 THAILAND 2,381 2,540.45 390.84 2,931.29 0.465 0.072 0.537 6.048 0.930 6.978 EUROPE & CENTRAL ASIA ARMENIA 493 553.44 85.14 638.58 0.021 0.003 0.024 0.273 0.042 0.315 BULGARIA 584 2,312.18 355.72 2,667.90 0.104 0.016 0.120 1.351 0.208 1.558 RUSSIAN 1,191 3,077.57 473.47 3,551.04 0.282 0.043 0.325 3.667 0.564 4.231 FEDERATION SERBIA 725 3,752.30 577.28 4,329.58 0.209 0.032 0.241 2.721 0.419 3.139 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 63 Pre-primary Pre-primary unit cost Cohort-average annual cost Total cost level refugees (2020 US$) (US$ millions) (US$ millions) Local Refugee Refugee Base Refugee Total Base Refugee Total Student Mark-up Student Mark-up Mark-up TURKEY 104,041 2,346.28 360.97 2,707.24 18.778 2.889 21.666 244.109 37.555 281.664 LATIN AMERICA & CARIBBEAN ARGENTINA 611 3,724.37 572.98 4,297.35 0.175 0.027 0.202 2.275 0.350 2.624 BRAZIL 9,871 3,282.02 504.93 3,786.94 2.492 0.383 2.876 32.397 4.984 37.382 COLOMBIA 6,876 1,831.16 281.72 2,112.87 0.969 0.149 1.118 12.592 1.937 14.529 COSTA RICA 3,101 4,003.25 615.88 4,619.14 0.955 0.147 1.102 12.413 1.910 14.322 DOMINICAN - 1,901.75 292.58 2,194.32 - - - - - - REPUBLIC ECUADOR 13,670 1,089.91 167.68 1,257.58 1.146 0.176 1.322 14.899 2.292 17.192 GUYANA 599 572.84 88.13 660.96 0.026 0.004 0.030 0.343 0.053 0.396 MEXICO 4,098 1,907.64 293.48 2,201.13 0.601 0.093 0.694 7.818 1.203 9.021 PERU 23,555 1,354.49 208.38 1,562.87 2.454 0.378 2.832 31.905 4.908 36.814 VENEZUELA 1,933 4,307.18 662.64 4,969.82 0.641 0.099 0.739 8.327 1.281 9.608 (BOLIVARIAN REP. OF) 64 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education Pre-primary Pre-primary unit cost Cohort-average annual cost Total cost level refugees (2020 US$) (US$ millions) (US$ millions) Local Refugee Refugee Base Refugee Total Base Refugee Total Student Mark-up Student Mark-up Mark-up MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA ALGERIA 2,722 645.03 99.24 744.26 0.135 0.021 0.156 1.756 0.270 2.026 IRAN (ISLAMIC 26,586 1,122.90 172.75 1,295.65 2.296 0.353 2.650 29.853 4.593 34.446 REPUBLIC OF) IRAQ 6,743 362.55 55.78 418.32 0.188 0.029 0.217 2.445 0.376 2.821 JORDAN 22,722 1,151.96 177.22 1,329.19 2.013 0.310 2.323 26.174 4.027 30.201 LEBANON 34,164 694.91 106.91 801.82 1.826 0.281 2.107 23.741 3.652 27.393 LIBYA 751 1,582.98 243.54 1,826.52 0.091 0.014 0.106 1.189 0.183 1.372 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SOUTH AFRICA 7,534 1,433.80 220.58 1,654.39 0.831 0.128 0.959 10.803 1.662 12.465 Grand Total 605,230 43.643 6.714 50.357 567.354 87.285 654.639 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 65 Annex 4: Refugee Education Financing – Primary Primary level Unit cost (2020 US$) Cohort-average annual cost Total cost (US$ millions) refugees (US$ millions) Local Refugee Refugee Base Refugee Total Base Refugee Total student Mark-up student Mark-up Mark-up LOW INCOME MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA SYRIAN ARAB 4,221 467.56 93.51 561.07 0.72 0.14 0.86 9.34 1.87 11.20 REPUBLIC YEMEN 19,508 182.21 36.44 218.65 1.29 0.26 1.55 16.82 3.36 20.18 SOUTH ASIA AFGHANISTAN 14,573 62.27 12.45 74.72 0.33 0.07 0.40 4.29 0.86 5.15 NEPAL 805 134.67 26.93 161.61 0.04 0.01 0.05 0.51 0.10 0.62 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA BURKINA FASO 5,985 109.16 21.83 130.99 0.24 0.05 0.29 3.09 0.62 3.71 66 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education Primary level Unit cost (2020 US$) Cohort-average annual cost Total cost (US$ millions) refugees (US$ millions) Local Refugee Refugee Base Refugee Total Base Refugee Total student Mark-up student Mark-up Mark-up BURUNDI 17,221 44.94 8.99 53.92 0.28 0.06 0.34 3.66 0.73 4.39 CENTRAL AFRICAN 1,399 22.45 4.49 26.94 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.15 0.03 0.18 REPUBLIC CHAD 90,612 59.41 11.88 71.29 1.96 0.39 2.35 25.47 5.09 30.56 DEM. REP. OF THE 125,014 39.27 7.85 47.13 1.79 0.36 2.14 23.23 4.65 27.87 CONGO ETHIOPIA 151,066 55.55 11.11 66.66 3.05 0.61 3.66 39.70 7.94 47.64 LIBERIA 1,370 112.05 22.41 134.45 0.06 0.01 0.07 0.73 0.15 0.87 MALAWI 8,129 33.66 6.73 40.39 0.10 0.02 0.12 1.29 0.26 1.55 MALI 6,558 126.87 25.37 152.25 0.30 0.06 0.36 3.94 0.79 4.72 MOZAMBIQUE 4,051 54.10 10.82 64.92 0.08 0.02 0.10 1.04 0.21 1.24 NIGER 52,956 54.17 10.83 65.00 1.04 0.21 1.25 13.57 2.71 16.28 RWANDA 23,127 36.14 7.23 43.37 0.30 0.06 0.37 3.95 0.79 4.75 SOMALIA 5,342 52.48 10.50 62.98 0.10 0.02 0.12 1.33 0.27 1.59 SOUTH SUDAN 70,999 64.29 12.86 77.15 1.66 0.33 1.99 21.60 4.32 25.91 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 67 Primary level Unit cost (2020 US$) Cohort-average annual cost Total cost (US$ millions) refugees (US$ millions) Local Refugee Refugee Base Refugee Total Base Refugee Total student Mark-up student Mark-up Mark-up TOGO 2,956 146.15 29.23 175.38 0.16 0.03 0.19 2.04 0.41 2.45 UGANDA 300,462 52.94 10.59 63.53 5.79 1.16 6.95 75.26 15.05 90.31 UNITED REPUBLIC 48,442 82.54 16.51 99.04 1.45 0.29 1.75 18.91 3.78 22.70 OF TANZANIA LOWER MIDDLE INCOME EAST ASIA & PACIFIC INDONESIA 1,070 671.77 134.35 806.13 0.26 0.05 0.31 3.40 0.68 4.08 PAPUA NEW GUINEA 1,603 356.54 71.31 427.85 0.21 0.04 0.25 2.70 0.54 3.24 MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA DJIBOUTI 4,611 1,225.02 245.00 1,470.02 2.06 0.41 2.47 26.72 5.34 32.07 EGYPT 35,176 411.72 82.34 494.06 5.27 1.05 6.32 68.51 13.70 82.22 MOROCCO 1,127 717.97 143.59 861.57 0.29 0.06 0.35 3.83 0.77 4.59 68 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education Primary level Unit cost (2020 US$) Cohort-average annual cost Total cost (US$ millions) refugees (US$ millions) Local Refugee Refugee Base Refugee Total Base Refugee Total student Mark-up student Mark-up Mark-up SOUTH ASIA BANGLADESH 153,895 135.91 27.18 163.09 7.61 1.52 9.13 98.95 19.79 118.74 INDIA 33,766 236.79 47.36 284.15 2.91 0.58 3.49 37.83 7.57 45.39 PAKISTAN 266,948 160.30 32.06 192.36 15.57 3.11 18.69 202.44 40.49 242.93 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA ANGOLA 11,625 133.40 26.68 160.08 0.56 0.11 0.68 7.34 1.47 8.80 CAMEROON 91,347 90.42 18.08 108.50 3.01 0.60 3.61 39.07 7.81 46.89 CONGO 6,835 270.26 54.05 324.31 0.67 0.13 0.81 8.74 1.75 10.49 GHANA 1,818 184.16 36.83 220.99 0.12 0.02 0.15 1.58 0.32 1.90 KENYA 98,802 190.53 38.11 228.64 6.85 1.37 8.22 89.06 17.81 106.87 MAURITANIA 18,223 138.68 27.74 166.42 0.92 0.18 1.10 11.96 2.39 14.35 NIGERIA 10,342 213.46 42.69 256.15 0.80 0.16 0.96 10.44 2.09 12.53 SENEGAL 3,446 188.08 37.62 225.69 0.24 0.05 0.28 3.07 0.61 3.68 SUDAN 208,009 146.49 29.30 175.79 11.09 2.22 13.31 144.16 28.83 172.99 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 69 Primary level Unit cost (2020 US$) Cohort-average annual cost Total cost (US$ millions) refugees (US$ millions) Local Refugee Refugee Base Refugee Total Base Refugee Total student Mark-up student Mark-up Mark-up ZAMBIA 10,956 79.12 15.82 94.94 0.32 0.06 0.38 4.10 0.82 4.92 ZIMBABWE 3,534 2,275.79 455.16 2,730.94 2.93 0.59 3.51 38.05 7.61 45.66 UPPER MIDDLE INCOME EAST ASIA & PACIFIC CHINA 49,515 3,266.75 653.35 3,920.10 58.86 11.77 70.64 765.23 153.05 918.28 MALAYSIA 14,228 1,985.69 397.14 2,382.83 10.28 2.06 12.34 133.66 26.73 160.39 THAILAND 14,283 1,954.19 390.84 2,345.03 10.16 2.03 12.19 132.05 26.41 158.46 EUROPE & CENTRAL ASIA ARMENIA 2,957 425.72 85.14 510.87 0.46 0.09 0.55 5.96 1.19 7.15 BULGARIA 3,505 1,778.60 355.72 2,134.32 2.27 0.45 2.72 29.49 5.90 35.39 RUSSIAN FEDERATION 7,149 2,367.36 473.47 2,840.84 6.16 1.23 7.39 80.06 16.01 96.07 SERBIA 4,351 2,886.39 577.28 3,463.66 4.57 0.91 5.48 59.41 11.88 71.29 TURKEY 624,245 1,804.83 360.97 2,165.80 410.00 82.00 492.00 5,330.04 1,066.01 6,396.05 70 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education Primary level Unit cost (2020 US$) Cohort-average annual cost Total cost (US$ millions) refugees (US$ millions) Local Refugee Refugee Base Refugee Total Base Refugee Total student Mark-up student Mark-up Mark-up LATIN AMERICA & CARIBBEAN ARGENTINA 3,664 2,864.90 572.98 3,437.88 3.82 0.76 4.58 49.66 9.93 59.60 BRAZIL 59,227 2,524.63 504.93 3,029.55 54.41 10.88 65.30 707.39 141.48 848.87 COLOMBIA 41,259 1,408.58 281.72 1,690.30 21.15 4.23 25.38 274.94 54.99 329.93 COSTA RICA 18,604 3,079.42 615.88 3,695.31 20.85 4.17 25.02 271.03 54.21 325.23 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - 1,462.88 292.58 1,755.46 - - - - - - ECUADOR 82,022 838.39 167.68 1,006.07 25.02 5.00 30.03 325.32 65.06 390.39 GUYANA 3,596 440.64 88.13 528.77 0.58 0.12 0.69 7.50 1.50 8.99 MEXICO 24,589 1,467.42 293.48 1,760.90 13.13 2.63 15.76 170.70 34.14 204.84 PERU 141,331 1,041.92 208.38 1,250.30 53.59 10.72 64.31 696.64 139.33 835.97 VENEZUELA (BOLIVARIAN REP. OF) 11,600 3,313.21 662.64 3,975.86 13.99 2.80 16.78 181.82 36.36 218.18 MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA ALGERIA 16,330 496.18 99.24 595.41 2.95 0.59 3.54 38.33 7.67 46.00 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 71 Primary level Unit cost (2020 US$) Cohort-average annual cost Total cost (US$ millions) refugees (US$ millions) Local Refugee Refugee Base Refugee Total Base Refugee Total student Mark-up student Mark-up Mark-up IRAN (ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF) 159,513 863.77 172.75 1,036.52 50.14 10.03 60.17 651.83 130.37 782.19 IRAQ 40,457 278.88 55.78 334.66 4.11 0.82 4.93 53.38 10.68 64.05 JORDAN 136,329 886.12 177.22 1,063.35 43.96 8.79 52.75 571.51 114.30 685.81 LEBANON 204,982 534.55 106.91 641.45 39.87 7.97 47.85 518.37 103.67 622.04 LIBYA 4,506 1,217.68 243.54 1,461.21 2.00 0.40 2.40 25.96 5.19 31.15 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SOUTH AFRICA 45,206 1,102.92 220.58 1,323.51 18.14 3.63 21.77 235.87 47.17 283.05 Grand Total 3,631,378 952.92 190.58 1,143.51 12,388.00 2,477.60 14,865.60 72 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education Annex 5: Refugee Education Financing – Secondary Secondary Unit cost Cohort-average annual cost Total cost level refugees (2020 US$) (US$ millions) (US$ millions) Local Refugee Refugee Base Refugee Total Base Refugee Total student Mark-up student Mark-up Mark-up LOW INCOME MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC 4,171 392.86 137.50 530.36 1.50 0.53 2.03 19.54 6.84 26.38 YEMEN 23,476 118.83 41.59 160.42 2.24 0.78 3.03 29.13 10.20 39.33 SOUTH ASIA AFGHANISTAN 9,247 67.73 23.70 91.43 0.80 0.28 1.08 10.36 3.63 13.98 NEPAL 814 119.25 41.74 160.99 0.09 0.03 0.12 1.14 0.40 1.54 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA BURKINA FASO 4,513 175.78 61.52 237.30 0.88 0.31 1.19 11.50 4.02 15.52 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 73 Secondary Unit cost Cohort-average annual cost Total cost level refugees (2020 US$) (US$ millions) (US$ millions) Local Refugee Refugee Base Refugee Total Base Refugee Total student Mark-up student Mark-up Mark-up BURUNDI 14,800 90.07 31.52 121.60 1.35 0.47 1.82 17.55 6.14 23.69 CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC 921 81.31 28.46 109.76 0.09 0.03 0.12 1.20 0.42 1.62 CHAD 71,025 180.22 63.08 243.30 13.87 4.85 18.72 180.26 63.09 243.35 DEM. REP. OF THE CONGO 83,885 30.28 10.60 40.87 3.09 1.08 4.18 40.22 14.08 54.30 ETHIOPIA 130,945 120.33 42.12 162.44 15.86 5.55 21.41 206.15 72.15 278.30 LIBERIA 1,480 491.23 171.93 663.17 0.63 0.22 0.85 8.16 2.85 11.01 MALAWI 7,143 102.40 35.84 138.24 0.73 0.26 0.98 9.48 3.32 12.79 MALI 4,469 303.10 106.09 409.19 1.63 0.57 2.20 21.20 7.42 28.62 MOZAMBIQUE 3,500 205.24 71.84 277.08 0.72 0.25 0.98 9.42 3.30 12.72 NIGER 32,421 78.95 27.63 106.59 3.35 1.17 4.52 43.54 15.24 58.78 RWANDA 21,102 201.58 70.55 272.14 4.13 1.44 5.57 53.65 18.78 72.42 SOMALIA 4,476 452.93 158.52 611.45 2.09 0.73 2.82 27.18 9.51 36.70 74 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education Secondary Unit cost Cohort-average annual cost Total cost level refugees (2020 US$) (US$ millions) (US$ millions) Local Refugee Refugee Base Refugee Total Base Refugee Total student Mark-up student Mark-up Mark-up SOUTH SUDAN 51,093 166.41 58.24 224.65 9.82 3.44 13.26 127.65 44.68 172.33 TOGO 1,426 73.65 25.78 99.43 0.17 0.06 0.22 2.16 0.76 2.92 UGANDA 236,321 150.89 52.81 203.70 38.53 13.49 52.02 500.89 175.31 676.20 UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA 40,179 189.40 66.29 255.69 7.91 2.77 10.68 102.80 35.98 138.78 LOWER MIDDLE INCOME EAST ASIA & PACIFIC INDONESIA 892 670.95 234.83 905.78 0.62 0.22 0.84 8.06 2.82 10.87 PAPUA NEW GUINEA 1,279 1,764.11 617.44 2,381.55 2.41 0.84 3.26 31.35 10.97 42.33 MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA DJIBOUTI 4,252 22.63 7.92 30.54 0.09 0.03 0.13 1.20 0.42 1.63 EGYPT 30,485 577.70 202.20 779.90 17.73 6.20 23.93 230.45 80.66 311.10 MOROCCO 918 1,183.94 414.38 1,598.32 1.14 0.40 1.54 14.88 5.21 20.08 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 75 Secondary Unit cost Cohort-average annual cost Total cost level refugees (2020 US$) (US$ millions) (US$ millions) Local Refugee Refugee Base Refugee Total Base Refugee Total student Mark-up student Mark-up Mark-up SOUTH ASIA BANGLADESH 117,938 2,573.96 900.89 3,474.85 334.41 117.04 451.45 4,347.31 1,521.56 5,868.87 INDIA 26,953 489.20 171.22 660.42 14.09 4.93 19.03 183.20 64.12 247.33 PAKISTAN 217,747 317.41 111.09 428.51 72.70 25.45 98.15 945.16 330.80 1,275.96 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA ANGOLA 7,485 544.08 190.43 734.50 5.12 1.79 6.92 66.59 23.31 89.90 CAMEROON 60,136 286.14 100.15 386.29 21.27 7.45 28.72 276.57 96.80 373.37 CONGO 5,863 382.86 134.00 516.86 2.28 0.80 3.07 29.59 10.36 39.95 GHANA 1,640 443.90 155.36 599.26 0.71 0.25 0.96 9.26 3.24 12.49 KENYA 88,973 382.03 133.71 515.75 33.28 11.65 44.93 432.70 151.45 584.15 MAURITANIA 13,391 198.54 69.49 268.03 3.02 1.06 4.08 39.29 13.75 53.04 NIGERIA 7,184 528.63 185.02 713.65 4.51 1.58 6.08 58.57 20.50 79.07 76 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education Secondary Unit cost Cohort-average annual cost Total cost level refugees (2020 US$) (US$ millions) (US$ millions) Local Refugee Refugee Base Refugee Total Base Refugee Total student Mark-up student Mark-up Mark-up SENEGAL 2,796 209.98 73.49 283.47 0.62 0.22 0.84 8.06 2.82 10.88 SUDAN 163,096 144.15 50.45 194.60 25.46 8.91 34.37 331.01 115.85 446.86 ZAMBIA 9,494 140.79 49.28 190.07 1.35 0.47 1.82 17.49 6.12 23.61 ZIMBABWE 3,212 1,800.47 630.17 2,430.64 5.63 1.97 7.60 73.14 25.60 98.74 UPPER MIDDLE INCOME EAST ASIA & PACIFIC CHINA 39,525 1,434.67 502.14 1,936.81 60.61 21.21 81.82 787.88 275.76 1,063.64 MALAYSIA 9,549 2,849.18 997.21 3,846.40 33.14 11.60 44.74 430.84 150.79 581.63 THAILAND 14,202 980.88 343.31 1,324.19 12.72 4.45 17.18 165.40 57.89 223.29 EUROPE & CENTRAL ASIA ARMENIA 2,361 673.60 235.76 909.36 1.70 0.59 2.29 22.09 7.73 29.83 BULGARIA 2,798 1,915.77 670.52 2,586.28 5.73 2.00 7.73 74.47 26.06 100.53 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 77 Secondary Unit cost Cohort-average annual cost Total cost level refugees (2020 US$) (US$ millions) (US$ millions) Local Refugee Refugee Base Refugee Total Base Refugee Total student Mark-up student Mark-up Mark-up RUSSIAN FEDERATION 5,706 2,135.55 747.44 2,882.99 13.02 4.56 17.58 169.32 59.26 228.58 SERBIA 3,473 731.90 256.17 988.07 2.72 0.95 3.67 35.32 12.36 47.68 TURKEY 420,056 1,489.80 521.43 2,011.23 760.76 266.27 1,027.03 9,889.90 3,461.46 13,351.36 LATIN AMERICA & CARIBBEAN ARGENTINA 7,445 3,954.29 1,384.00 5,338.29 17.37 6.08 23.45 225.83 79.04 304.87 BRAZIL 47,278 2,708.20 947.87 3,656.07 136.84 47.90 184.74 1,778.98 622.64 2,401.62 COLOMBIA 50,967 1,350.39 472.64 1,823.02 54.36 19.03 73.38 706.65 247.33 953.98 COSTA RICA 14,851 3,419.09 1,196.68 4,615.77 54.27 18.99 73.26 705.48 246.92 952.40 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 1,053 1,759.19 615.72 2,374.91 0.52 0.18 0.70 6.75 2.36 9.11 ECUADOR 65,474 482.97 169.04 652.01 33.80 11.83 45.63 439.36 153.78 593.14 GUYANA 2,870 599.98 209.99 809.97 1.84 0.64 2.48 23.93 8.37 32.30 MEXICO 19,628 1,572.52 550.38 2,122.91 32.99 11.55 44.53 428.85 150.10 578.95 PERU 112,817 1,377.82 482.24 1,860.05 166.13 58.15 224.28 2,159.72 755.90 2,915.62 78 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education Secondary Unit cost Cohort-average annual cost Total cost level refugees (2020 US$) (US$ millions) (US$ millions) Local Refugee Refugee Base Refugee Total Base Refugee Total student Mark-up student Mark-up Mark-up VENEZUELA (BOLIVARIAN REP. OF) 16,910 2,739.42 958.80 3,698.21 32.98 11.54 44.53 428.79 150.08 578.86 MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA ALGERIA 13,035 772.31 270.31 1,042.62 10.76 3.77 14.53 139.87 48.96 188.83 IRAN (ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF) 127,331 1,310.65 458.73 1,769.38 178.37 62.43 240.79 2,318.75 811.56 3,130.31 IRAQ 29,928 868.80 304.08 1,172.87 29.41 10.29 39.71 382.35 133.82 516.17 JORDAN 102,120 926.56 324.30 1,250.86 106.03 37.11 143.14 1,378.35 482.42 1,860.77 LEBANON 139,552 1,489.82 521.44 2,011.26 250.49 87.67 338.16 3,256.36 1,139.73 4,396.09 LIBYA 4,805 1,039.40 363.79 1,403.18 4.35 1.52 5.87 56.52 19.78 76.30 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SOUTH AFRICA 36,086 1,328.80 465.08 1,793.87 51.25 17.94 69.19 666.23 233.18 899.41 Grand Total 2,800,961 2,708.08 947.83 3,655.91 35,205.03 12,321.76 47,526.79 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 79 Annex 6: Refugee Education Financing – Total Average unit cost (2020 US$) Cohort-average annual unit cost (US$ Total cost (US$ millions) millions) Local Refugee Refugee Base Refugee- Total Base Refugee- Total student Mark-up student Mark-up Mark-up LOW INCOME MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC 444.16 113.52 557.67 2.25 0.67 2.93 29.30 8.77 38.08 YEMEN 153.87 44.05 197.93 3.59 1.05 4.65 46.72 13.68 60.40 SOUTH ASIA AFGHANISTAN 65.92 19.81 85.73 1.14 0.35 1.49 14.85 4.51 19.36 NEPAL 130.61 33.81 164.42 0.13 0.04 0.17 1.68 0.50 2.18 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA BURKINA FASO 138.15 51.03 189.18 1.13 0.36 1.49 14.73 4.66 19.40 80 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education Average unit cost (2020 US$) Cohort-average annual unit cost (US$ Total cost (US$ millions) millions) Local Refugee Refugee Base Refugee- Total Base Refugee- Total student Mark-up student Mark-up Mark-up BURUNDI 65.19 23.24 88.43 1.64 0.53 2.18 21.38 6.90 28.28 CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC 44.29 28.64 72.93 0.10 0.03 0.14 1.36 0.45 1.81 CHAD 109.48 51.52 161.00 15.91 5.26 21.17 206.89 68.36 275.26 DEM. REP. OF THE CONGO 37.06 7.74 44.79 4.96 1.45 6.42 64.51 18.89 83.40 ETHIOPIA 84.53 30.60 115.13 19.05 6.18 25.23 247.66 80.37 328.04 LIBERIA 296.84 75.41 372.25 0.69 0.23 0.92 8.92 3.01 11.92 MALAWI 64.01 25.04 89.05 0.83 0.28 1.11 10.83 3.58 14.41 MALI 195.29 99.41 294.70 1.95 0.63 2.58 25.32 8.24 33.55 MOZAMBIQUE 119.73 51.00 170.73 0.81 0.27 1.08 10.50 3.51 14.02 NIGER 64.22 25.68 89.90 4.44 1.39 5.83 57.73 18.05 75.78 RWANDA 109.62 44.65 154.27 4.44 1.51 5.95 57.78 19.59 77.38 SOMALIA 221.19 116.69 337.88 2.20 0.75 2.95 28.57 9.79 38.36 SOUTH SUDAN 104.96 52.10 157.05 11.56 3.78 15.34 150.24 49.15 199.39 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 81 Average unit cost (2020 US$) Cohort-average annual unit cost (US$ Total cost (US$ millions) millions) Local Refugee Refugee Base Refugee- Total Base Refugee- Total student Mark-up student Mark-up Mark-up TOGO 129.38 4.38 133.76 0.33 0.09 0.42 4.30 1.18 5.48 UGANDA 93.74 42.91 136.65 44.58 14.68 59.27 579.59 190.89 770.48 UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA 129.01 50.58 179.59 9.43 3.07 12.50 122.58 39.90 162.48 LOWER MIDDLE INCOME EAST ASIA & PACIFIC INDONESIA 688.22 184.51 872.73 0.89 0.27 1.16 11.61 3.52 15.13 PAPUA NEW GUINEA 937.44 493.78 1,431.22 2.63 0.89 3.52 34.18 11.53 45.71 MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA DJIBOUTI 723.51 86.71 810.22 2.24 0.46 2.70 29.15 5.95 35.11 EGYPT 492.59 152.17 644.76 23.24 7.30 30.53 302.10 94.84 396.94 MOROCCO 927.69 323.83 1,251.52 1.45 0.46 1.91 18.88 6.00 24.88 82 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education Average unit cost (2020 US$) Cohort-average annual unit cost (US$ Total cost (US$ millions) millions) Local Refugee Refugee Base Refugee- Total Base Refugee- Total student Mark-up student Mark-up Mark-up SOUTH ASIA BANGLADESH 1,106.00 773.86 1,879.86 342.37 118.62 460.99 4,450.79 1,542.05 5,992.84 INDIA 345.36 136.31 481.67 17.14 5.53 22.67 222.76 71.95 294.72 PAKISTAN 228.99 86.54 315.53 88.99 28.67 117.66 1,156.87 372.72 1,529.59 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA ANGOLA 283.13 197.91 481.04 5.71 1.91 7.62 74.26 24.83 99.09 CAMEROON 163.50 99.69 263.19 24.42 8.07 32.49 317.43 104.89 422.32 CONGO 324.64 101.46 426.10 2.98 0.94 3.92 38.73 12.17 50.90 GHANA 301.86 106.44 408.30 0.84 0.27 1.11 10.91 3.57 14.48 KENYA 278.56 93.57 372.14 40.45 13.07 53.52 525.84 169.88 695.72 MAURITANIA 165.46 58.04 223.50 3.98 1.25 5.23 51.80 16.23 68.02 NIGERIA 336.81 170.87 507.68 5.35 1.74 7.09 69.49 22.66 92.16 SENEGAL 201.82 57.84 259.65 0.87 0.27 1.13 11.27 3.46 14.72 SUDAN 149.31 39.88 189.19 37.06 11.21 48.27 481.77 145.70 627.47 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 83 Average unit cost (2020 US$) Cohort-average annual unit cost (US$ Total cost (US$ millions) millions) Local Refugee Refugee Base Refugee- Total Base Refugee- Total student Mark-up student Mark-up Mark-up ZAMBIA 107.35 36.32 143.67 1.68 0.54 2.21 21.78 6.97 28.75 ZIMBABWE 2,122.45 518.63 2,641.08 8.69 2.58 11.26 112.93 33.48 146.41 UPPER MIDDLE INCOME EAST ASIA & PACIFIC CHINA 2,605.60 388.28 2,993.87 122.17 33.40 155.57 1,588.16 434.20 2,022.36 MALAYSIA 2,355.05 878.16 3,233.21 43.89 13.73 57.62 570.61 178.47 749.08 THAILAND 1,551.56 366.29 1,917.85 23.35 6.56 29.90 303.49 85.23 388.72 EUROPE & CENTRAL ASIA ARMENIA 537.26 187.25 724.51 2.18 0.69 2.87 28.32 8.97 37.29 BULGARIA 1,879.58 530.01 2,409.60 8.10 2.47 10.58 105.31 32.17 137.48 RUSSIAN FEDERATION 2,333.43 589.10 2,922.53 19.47 5.83 25.30 253.05 75.84 328.88 SERBIA 2,084.57 192.64 2,277.21 7.50 1.90 9.39 97.45 24.66 122.11 TURKEY 1,738.65 392.18 2,130.83 1,189.54 351.16 1,540.70 15,464.04 4,565.03 20,029.07 84 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education Average unit cost (2020 US$) Cohort-average annual unit cost (US$ Total cost (US$ millions) millions) Local Refugee Refugee Base Refugee- Total Base Refugee- Total student Mark-up student Mark-up Mark-up LATIN AMERICA & CARIBBEAN ARGENTINA 3,601.72 475.11 4,076.82 21.37 6.87 28.24 277.77 89.32 367.09 BRAZIL 2,663.45 749.20 3,412.65 193.75 59.16 252.91 2,518.76 769.10 3,287.87 COLOMBIA 1,407.97 366.90 1,774.88 76.48 23.40 99.88 994.18 304.25 1,298.44 COSTA RICA 3,295.77 946.35 4,242.12 76.07 23.31 99.38 988.92 303.03 1,291.96 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 1,759.19 (3.73) 1,755.46 0.52 0.18 0.70 6.75 2.36 9.11 ECUADOR 715.34 131.88 847.21 59.97 17.01 76.98 779.58 221.13 1,000.72 GUYANA 516.58 166.51 683.09 2.44 0.76 3.21 31.77 9.93 41.69 MEXICO 1,547.46 435.02 1,982.48 46.72 14.26 60.99 607.37 185.44 792.81 PERU 1,204.89 382.24 1,587.13 222.17 69.24 291.42 2,888.27 900.14 3,788.40 VENEZUELA (BOLIVARIAN REP. OF) 3,057.62 875.57 3,933.19 47.61 14.44 62.05 618.93 187.72 806.65 MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 85 Average unit cost (2020 US$) Cohort-average annual unit cost (US$ Total cost (US$ millions) millions) Local Refugee Refugee Base Refugee- Total Base Refugee- Total student Mark-up student Mark-up Mark-up ALGERIA 620.98 214.65 835.63 13.84 4.38 18.22 179.96 56.89 236.85 IRAN (ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF) 1,067.29 364.18 1,431.47 230.80 72.81 303.61 3,000.43 946.52 3,946.95 IRAQ 515.10 266.55 781.66 33.71 11.14 44.85 438.17 144.87 583.04 JORDAN 925.06 259.29 1,184.36 152.00 46.21 198.21 1,976.03 600.75 2,576.78 LEBANON 901.04 496.34 1,397.37 292.19 95.93 388.12 3,798.47 1,247.05 5,045.52 LIBYA 1,159.80 302.69 1,462.49 6.44 1.94 8.37 83.67 25.16 108.82 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SOUTH AFRICA 1,222.75 368.21 1,590.96 70.22 21.69 91.92 912.91 282.02 1,194.92 Grand Total 3,704.65 1,145.13 4,849.77 48,160.39 14,886.65 63,047.03 86 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education Annex 7: Case study on the education of Palestinian refugees in UNRWA schools Box 5: Cost-effectiveness in refugee education – the case of UNRWA schools in the West Bank and Gaza and Jordan The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) has been operational for nearly 70 years providing quality education services for Palestinian refugees in the West Bank and Gaza, Jordan, the Syrian Arabic Republic and Lebanon. Over 5.6 million Palestinian refugees fall within the UNRWA mandate. UNRWA schools enroll over 526,000 refugee students each year, managing 711 elementary schools with 22,475 educational staff. However, for historical reasons, UNRWA is almost entirely dependent on voluntary contributions from a core group of donors. As such, its financing outlook is uncertain each year leading to difficulties in resource mobilization and long-term planning. It is further highly susceptible to changes in global economic dynamics. In 2019, UNRWA faced a budget shortfall of over US$200 million as a result of a funding cut from its largest single donor. Despite severe funding shortages and political instability, coupled with refugee students that have suffered trauma as a result of occupation, conflict and displacement, UNRWA schools tend to outperform host country public schools. In the West Bank and Gaza and Jordan, UNRWA school children scored an average of a quarter of a standard deviation higher in international assessments than public school children, implying an advantage of almost a year of learning. Further, these education outcomes were achieved at lower unit costs than public education systems. For instance, the cost per student in UNRWA schools in 2009 was 20 percent lower than that in public schools in Jordan. In 2019, the annual cost per UNRWA elementary student was US$841.50. There are important lessons to be learned here as host countries transition to inclusive national education systems. Abdul-Hamid et al. (2016) identify these key lessons in the management and operationalization of UNRWA schools that can be scaled up for improved integrated education systems. UNRWA recruits high quality teachers, provides them with a rigorous two-year training after they are hired, and then continuous professional training with school leadership mentorship and support. As a result, teachers tend to be more satisfied with their The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 87 © Dominic Chavez/World Bank jobs, time on task is higher and students are less likely to be off-task. UNRWA has a well- defined and regularly implemented accountability system. Students are assessed frequently, and feedback is given regularly on tests and quizzes. Students are encouraged to participate in class through questions and activities more frequently than just being lectured at. Finally, UNRWA successfully fosters community participation in education. UNRWA schools provide a model example and strong foundational lessons for effective emergency responsiveness in refugee education, notwithstanding its operations as a parallel system. While these lessons will have to be adapted to different contexts given the situational realities in different host countries, they certainly provide the building blocks for cost-effective, quality education service delivery in resource-constrained environments. Source: Abdul-Hamid, Husein, Harry Anthony Patrinos, Joel Reyes, Jo Kelcey and Andrea Diaz Varela. 2016. Learning in the face of adversity – the UNRWA education programme for Palestinian refugees. Washington, D.C: World Bank. 88 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education Annex 8: List of World Bank approved projects for the IDA Regional Sub- Window for Refugees Country Project Name Total (US$ millions)85 RSW (US$ millions) Bangladesh Additional Financing for Health 50.0 41.7 Sector Support Project Emergency Multi-Sector Rohingya 165.0 137.5 Crisis Response Project Additional Financing for Reaching 25.0 20.8 Out of School Children II Health and Gender Support 150.0 125.0 Project for Cox’s Bazar district Emergency Multi-Sector Rohingya 100.0 83.3 Crisis Response Project Additional Financing Safety Net Systems for the 100.0 83.3 Poorest Additional Financing Burkina Faso Second Additional Financing to 100.0 14.0 the Social Safety Net Project: Scale-Up & Responding to the needs of Refugees and Host Communities Burundi Burundi North-East Region 55.0 15.0 Refugee and Host Community Support Project 85 Representing approved projects as of May 2020. The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 89 Country Project Name Total (US$ millions)85 RSW (US$ millions) Cameroon CAMEROON Education Reform 130.0 30.0 Support Project Community Development 48.0 40.0 Programme Support Project Response to Forced Displacement Social Safety Nets for Crisis 60.0 30.0 Response Health System Performance 36.0 30.0 Reinforcement Project - Additional Financing Chad Chad - Refugees and Host 60.0 50.0 Communities Support Project Congo, Republic LISUNGI Safety Nets System 22.0 18.3 of Project II Djibouti Expanding Opportunities for 15.0 5.0 Learning Djibouti Integrated Slum 20.0 5.0 Upgrading Project Improving Health Sector 6.0 5.0 Performance Project Second Additional Financing Integrated Cash Transfer and 15.0 5.0 Human Capital Project DRC STEP Additional Financing II 445.0 220.0 Ethiopia Ethiopia Economic Opportunities 202.0 166.7 Programme Mauritania Mauritania Water and Sanitation 40.0 10.0 Sectoral Project Health System Support Additional 18.0 15.0 Financing Decentralization & Productive 50.0 20.0 Cities Mauritania Social Safety Net 45.0 18.0 System Project II 90 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education Country Project Name Total (US$ millions)85 RSW (US$ millions) Niger Niger Refugees and Host 80.0 50.0 Communities Support Project Niger Learning Improvement for 140.0 40.0 Results in Education Project Pakistan Strengthening Institutions for 50.0 41.7 Refugee Administration Project Balochistan Livelihoods and 35.0 29.2 Entrepreneurship Project Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Human 150.0 125.0 Capital Investment Project Balochistan Human Capital 36.0 30.0 Investment Project Rwanda Socio-economic Inclusion of 60.0 50.0 Refugees & Host Communities in Rwanda Project Uganda Uganda Support to Municipal 360.0 50.0 Infrastructure Development Pro- gramme - Additional Financing Integrated Water Management 280.0 58.0 and Development Project Development Response to Dis- 150.0 125.0 placement Impacts Project UG Investing in Forests and PAs 150.0 58.0 Project 3448.0 1845.5 The Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education 91