99003 For more information, visit http://www.worldbank.org/prospects Taking Stock  Greece re-opened banks and made some payments to international creditors, while its Parliament approved a second round of reforms. Greece made a €4.2 billion loan repayment to the European Central Bank (ECB), and cleared €2 billion in arrears to the IMF. Greek banks reopened for the first time in 3 weeks on Monday, supported by a €900 million increase in the emergency liquidity assistance from the ECB. Restrictions remain in place on transferring money abroad; however, banks will be able to make payments between accounts domestically. On Thursday, Greek parliament approved a second round of reforms demanded by creditors, paving the way for negotiations on a new bailout to begin.  Eurozone PMI fell more than expected in July. The Eurozone flash composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) dipped from 54.4 in June to 53.8 in July, slightly weaker than the consensus forecast of a decline to 54.0, reflecting falls in both the manufacturing and service sector indices. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector. A breakdown by country revealed that the German and French composite PMIs fell, with manufacturing and services sector PMI declining more than forecasts in both countries  U.S. existing home sales jumped to highest level in over eight years, while initial jobless claims fell to a 42-year low. Existing home sales rose 3.2 percent (m/m) in June to 5.49 million units, their highest level since February 2007 (figure 1). Year-on-year, sales were up 9.6 percent. Meanwhile, the Labor Department reported that the number of workers filing applications for unemployment benefits dropped more than expected in the week ended July 18th to a seasonally adjusted figure of 255,000, their lowest level since 1973, from the previous week’s unrevised level of 281,000. The less volatile four-week moving average of initial jobless claims showed a more modest decrease of 4,000 to 278,500.  China flash manufacturing PMI fell noticeably in July. The flash Caixin-Markit China manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 48.2 in July, its lowest level since April 2014 , down from 49.4 in June and weaker than the consensus forecast of a rise to 49.7 (Figure 2). A reading below 50 signals activity across the sector is contracting. Manufacturing output fell, and both new orders and new export orders contracted, while input and output prices declined.  Commodity prices expected to remain weak in 2015 despite a slight rebound in oil price. The World Bank revised upward its 2015 forecast for crude oil prices from $53 in April to $57 per barrel after oil prices rose 17 percent in the April- June quarter, according to the latest Commodity Market Outlook, a quarterly update on the state of international commodity markets. The Bank expects energy, metal and agricultural prices to average 39 percent, 16 percent and 11 percent below 2014 levels this year, respectively. FIGURE 1 U.S. existing home sales growth FIGURE 2 Caixin-Markit China Manufacturing PMI Million unit Index 5.6 53 5.4 52 5.2 51 50 5.0 49 4.8 48 4.6 47 4.4 46 4.2 45 Apr-12 Jul-12 Jul-14 Jul-15 Oct-11 Oct-12 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jan-13 Source: Bloomberg, World Bank. Source: Markit, Haver Analytics. Produced by DECPG (Eung Ju Kim, Christian Eigen-Zucchi, Xinghao Gong). Number 272 | July 24, 2015 Weekly Insight: Implications of Negative Policy Rates and Yields in Europe for Activity and Financial Stability While negative rates in Europe may help boost lending and exports, they could also have some adverse consequences for financial stability. They may erode bank profitability and may make it harder for pension and life insurance companies to meet their long-term liabilities. Investors may be encouraged to take excessive risk. Finally, if negative rates were to prevail for long, they may lead to operational innovations whose costs may offset the benefits of negative rates.  Some of the effects of negative rates are qualitatively analogous to those of very low but non-negative rates. First, they can boost consumption and investment. Second, low or negative policy rates may help stimulate lending, as evidenced by some increase in credit in the Euro Area (Figure 3). Third, declines in domestic interest rates can trigger a depreciation of the currency, which boosts exports. Fourth, in countries concerned about capital flow-driven appreciation pressures (e.g. Switzerland and Denmark), they discourage capital inflows.  That said, negative nominal interest rates may have undesirable side effects on financial stability, such as the erosion of bank profitability. Negative rates may erode bank profitability by narrowing banks’ net interest margins (the gap between commercial banks’ lending and deposit rates), since banks may be unwilling to pa ss through negative deposit rates to their customers to avoid a reduction in their customer base. This unwillingness is due to the fact that, for retail depositors, the costs of avoiding negative rates by substituting currency for deposits is probably lower than for larger, business and institutional investors. As a result, interest margins have generally narrowed in the Euro Area earlier this year (Figure 4).  Negative rates may also exert pressures on non-bank financial institutions. Under negative interest rates, some non- bank financial institutions—especially pension and life insurance companies —may struggle to meet their long-term liabilities, such as pensions or life insurance policies, offered at fixed nominal rates. In particular, various European life insurance companies that have guaranteed payouts exceeding the yields on local 10-year government bonds are likely to face significant pressures. Insurance companies or pension funds might be constrained to hold government bonds by prudential requirements, hence contributing to the demand glut and downward pressure on yields.  Negative rates may encourage excessive risk-taking. Investors may be encouraged by negative rates to take excessive risk in their search for positive yield. Greater risk-taking could contribute to the formation of asset bubbles.  Negative rates might potentially necessitate a redesign of the functioning of financial transactions. Contractual language surrounding the operation of money and capital markets may not envision the possibility of negative rates; thus, the latter may create both legal and operational challenges. More generally, if negative rates were to prevail for long, they may entail the need to redesign debt securities, certain operations of financial institutions, and other operational innovations, whose costs may offset the benefits of negative rates. FIGURE 3. Euro Area bank loans to households and non-financial FIGURE 4. Net interest margin for Eurozone banks corporate €billion, 3-month rolling sum 4-week moving average, basis points 150 8 100 6 50 4 0 2 -50 0 -100 -2 Jan-10 Jul-12 Jan-15 Sep-11 May-13 Mar-14 Nov-10 Jan-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jul-15 Apr-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Source: Bloomberg, World Bank. Source: Bloomberg, World Bank. Note: Net interest margin is proxied by net interest spread, without compensating for the fact that the earning assets and the borrowed funds may be different instruments and differ in volume. Produced by DECPG (Carlos Arteta). Number 272 | July 24, 2015 Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous United States 7/17/2015 CPI (Y/Y) JUN 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Mexico 7/24/2015 Unemployment Rate JUN 4.4% South Africa 7/22/2015 CPI (Y/Y) JUN 4.7% 5.0% 4.6% UK 7/28/2015 GDP (Q/Q) Q2 0.4% Mexico 7/22/2015 Retail Sales (Y/Y) MAY 4.1% 4.9% 4.6% United States 7/28/2015 PMI Composite JUL 54.6 UK 7/23/2015 Retail Sales (Y/Y) JUN 4.0% 4.9% 4.7% Brazil 7/29/2015 PPI (Y/Y) JUN 6.1% Canada 7/23/2015 Retail Sales (Y/Y) MAY 2.7% 1.9% 1.7% Germany 7/30/2015 Unemployment Rate JUN 4.7% China 7/23/2015 PMI Manufacturing JUL 48.2 49.7 49.4 United States 7/30/2015 GDP (Q/Q) Q2 -0.2% Economic Developments indicators expressed as %ch y/y, except Industrial Production quarterly figures are %ch q/q, annualized 2014 2015 2014 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Industrial Production, S.A. World 8.8 4.7 3.0 2.6 3.7 2.4 2.5 3.9 1.5 3.5 3.5 2.7 3.4 3.1 2.9 3.3 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.2 - High Income Countries 7.6 2.9 1.1 0.6 2.9 0.4 0.6 3.2 2.1 2.4 2.5 1.3 1.8 1.9 1.5 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.2 0.8 - Developing Countries 10.9 7.9 6.2 5.5 4.9 5.4 5.2 4.8 0.8 5.3 5.0 4.8 5.8 5.0 5.0 5.3 4.0 4.1 4.0 3.7 4.0 - East Asia and Pacific 14.3 11.3 9.0 8.9 5.1 8.2 6.4 8.4 1.6 8.6 7.8 6.6 7.6 7.1 6.6 7.4 6.5 6.2 5.7 5.5 5.8 6.4 East Asia x. China 8.9 0.7 4.1 4.6 -0.8 8.5 3.9 6.2 -0.7 4.8 1.1 4.6 5.7 4.4 4.0 4.8 4.2 2.6 6.4 2.8 3.5 - Europe and Central Asia 11.0 13.1 8.9 2.2 5.0 1.9 2.3 -0.2 2.2 3.6 4.2 2.6 3.0 2.8 2.3 1.6 -0.1 1.9 2.9 1.6 1.4 - Latin America and Caribbean 6.2 2.6 -0.1 1.0 0.6 -2.7 -0.9 -3.3 -4.2 -3.0 -1.7 -1.1 -1.5 -1.0 -2.1 -1.6 -2.5 -2.8 -3.0 -3.2 -2.7 - Middle East and N. Africa 2.0 -8.5 5.6 -6.6 19.0 2.0 28.6 -2.4 -17.1 -4.5 -0.1 11.3 16.2 12.0 13.2 8.1 -0.3 -0.3 5.2 4.4 6.8 - South Asia 9.3 5.5 1.1 1.7 7.4 5.0 1.3 -1.9 12.2 4.5 1.6 2.0 3.5 -1.5 5.9 4.3 3.4 5.1 3.6 4.5 3.7 - Sub-Saharan Africa 4.3 3.4 3.2 1.6 -4.1 1.4 -4.8 9.2 -2.1 1.1 -6.4 -0.2 6.3 1.5 -0.8 0.2 -1.5 0.2 3.8 -1.4 0.1 - Inflation, S.A. 1 High Income Countries 1.7 2.8 2.0 1.5 1.4 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.8 1.0 1.0 Developing Countries 5.8 7.5 6.4 7.4 7.4 7.6 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.7 8.1 7.6 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.3 East Asia and Pacific 3.4 5.6 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.5 2.2 1.8 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.3 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.0 Europe and Central Asia 7.3 8.2 8.7 6.2 5.8 7.3 7.9 8.2 8.3 7.4 7.7 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.4 7.9 7.6 8.2 9.1 10.3 10.3 9.5 Latin America and Caribbean 6.4 7.5 6.7 9.8 12.4 13.8 15.4 16.7 16.7 14.1 14.8 15.3 15.9 16.2 16.5 17.5 17.1 16.8 16.4 15.1 14.4 13.8 Middle East and N. Africa 7.0 12.0 13.8 19.2 13.2 9.7 10.1 10.7 10.7 9.2 9.9 10.2 10.1 10.5 10.5 11.2 10.3 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.7 11.3 South Asia 10.3 9.8 9.4 10.1 8.1 7.8 6.7 4.2 5.0 6.8 7.3 6.9 5.8 4.8 3.5 4.4 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.6 4.8 5.1 Sub-Saharan Africa 7.5 10.1 11.1 8.1 8.6 9.2 9.8 8.4 7.5 9.7 9.9 10.1 9.3 8.3 8.4 8.5 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.9 8.4 8.5 1 Inflation is calculated as the GDP-weighted average for all groups. Trade and Finance indicators expressed as %ch y/y, except International Reserves are %ch p/p and trade quarterly figures are %ch q/q, annualized 2014 2015 2014 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Exports, Nominal, US$, S.A. World 21.9 19.2 0.3 1.8 -1.9 3.6 2.4 -15.9 -28.2 3.3 5.4 0.7 2.8 -1.4 -4.5 -4.0 -11.1 -7.2 -13.3 -13.9 -13.9 - High Income Countries 19.5 18.5 -1.1 1.2 1.2 0.6 -1.5 -19.2 -29.2 2.6 5.0 -0.5 1.0 -3.4 -6.3 -5.7 -12.8 -13.3 -13.6 -15.4 -15.6 - Developing Countries 28.2 20.8 3.5 3.1 -8.7 10.6 11.7 -8.1 -26.1 5.0 6.2 3.3 6.8 3.2 -0.4 0.0 -7.4 7.6 -12.4 -10.4 -10.0 - East Asia and Pacific 30.8 19.7 6.3 6.5 -11.9 17.7 18.8 1.7 -18.2 7.9 11.2 8.2 12.7 8.3 3.4 5.7 -3.3 29.3 -11.6 -6.6 -4.4 1.4 Europe and Central Asia 15.5 20.3 -0.1 -0.2 8.4 -4.8 -7.3 -28.5 -17.8 5.2 5.6 -4.0 -0.9 -6.5 -9.4 -11.3 -13.1 -15.4 -16.9 -16.1 -20.4 - Latin America and Caribbean 28.1 23.2 1.7 0.6 -9.2 9.0 3.6 -25.6 -19.6 1.7 5.8 -0.5 0.0 -4.3 -8.8 -6.6 -8.7 -13.4 -5.7 -12.8 -15.7 - Middle East and N. Africa 23.7 15.9 5.0 -11.2 -8.3 -0.7 27.7 -10.6 -61.3 -9.7 -18.0 -1.9 1.9 16.5 -3.3 -10.4 -15.8 -22.0 -18.0 - - - South Asia 34.4 31.4 -1.8 6.2 -7.7 10.3 3.3 -2.2 -46.7 10.7 0.1 1.5 -0.4 -5.5 8.6 -0.7 -7.6 -11.6 -17.7 -11.2 -16.3 -12.4 Sub-Saharan Africa 32.4 19.7 -2.5 -1.1 -3.0 -8.7 -1.2 -18.4 -56.7 -2.8 -1.5 -10.1 -2.1 -8.3 -7.8 -8.1 -27.3 -27.0 -19.8 - - - Imports, Nominal, US$, S.A. World 21.0 19.6 0.7 1.5 4.2 -1.2 1.1 -15.9 -31.6 5.3 3.3 0.6 3.8 -1.9 -4.2 -3.7 -13.9 -13.3 -11.6 -14.9 -15.7 - High Income Countries 17.9 17.7 -1.0 0.4 5.1 1.1 -3.0 -18.5 -29.4 6.4 5.5 0.5 2.2 -3.1 -5.3 -4.5 -13.9 -13.4 -12.8 -15.8 -15.7 - Developing Countries 29.7 24.5 4.7 4.0 2.3 -6.1 10.8 -9.8 -36.3 2.7 -1.5 0.7 7.5 0.6 -1.7 -2.0 -13.9 -13.1 -9.0 -13.1 -15.8 - East Asia and Pacific 37.3 24.1 5.7 6.2 4.6 -13.3 13.0 -9.7 -41.1 3.1 -2.4 -0.7 7.1 2.9 -5.2 -3.4 -17.6 -17.3 -9.6 -14.2 -15.7 -5.3 Europe and Central Asia 20.6 27.1 -0.4 2.9 -10.5 -4.6 -7.5 -9.9 -30.6 -0.1 -7.4 -4.3 -4.4 -7.2 -8.4 -8.8 -15.0 -13.3 -12.9 -17.5 -18.9 - Latin America and Caribbean 29.0 22.3 3.8 2.9 3.3 -2.3 6.8 -7.9 -18.2 2.8 -0.5 -1.7 7.8 -4.2 0.4 3.6 -8.1 -8.5 -0.7 -11.2 -15.1 - Middle East and N. Africa 14.9 17.4 10.8 3.9 0.0 -4.0 17.1 -20.3 -26.4 -2.6 0.9 11.0 7.6 -1.4 -4.0 -2.7 -11.2 -7.1 -11.2 - - - South Asia 33.9 31.4 4.0 -4.0 10.1 10.0 33.9 -12.7 -54.3 8.4 4.0 6.9 23.7 7.1 21.5 -1.2 -12.3 -12.8 -12.3 -7.9 -13.1 -10.4 Sub-Saharan Africa 13.2 25.1 4.0 6.2 -1.1 15.9 2.2 3.0 -28.3 3.2 3.6 6.9 9.0 4.7 2.6 7.2 -2.0 2.0 -9.8 - - - International Reserves, US$ High Income Countries 10.2 11.3 9.2 3.6 0.8 0.7 -1.8 -1.5 -0.4 0.5 -0.4 -0.1 -1.3 -0.6 0.0 -0.9 0.2 -0.1 -0.6 0.7 -0.3 - Developing Countries 15.6 10.5 5.2 8.2 1.8 1.5 -2.0 -1.7 -2.6 0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -1.7 -0.7 -0.3 -0.7 -0.7 -0.3 -1.6 0.8 -0.6 - East Asia and Pacific 19.3 11.9 4.5 12.2 3.0 1.2 -2.5 -1.4 -2.9 0.3 -0.5 0.1 -2.1 -0.8 -0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.2 -1.9 0.6 -0.9 - Europe and Central Asia 9.3 5.5 7.8 3.6 -2.9 3.4 -1.7 -7.2 -6.1 1.0 -1.1 1.1 -1.7 -2.0 -1.1 -4.2 -0.9 -3.2 -2.1 1.4 -0.3 - Latin America and Caribbean 16.2 16.3 8.4 -1.1 0.2 3.4 1.2 -1.2 -0.3 1.2 1.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.7 -1.8 0.5 -0.3 -0.4 0.7 -0.3 -0.1 Middle East and N. Africa 6.1 3.0 5.9 3.0 -1.9 -2.2 -3.8 -3.2 -7.4 -0.6 -0.4 -1.1 -2.3 -0.2 -1.0 -2.1 -3.7 -0.8 -2.9 - - - South Asia 6.1 -0.9 0.4 -0.2 3.8 5.6 -0.6 2.1 5.9 1.5 1.3 -0.4 -1.4 0.5 -0.3 1.9 1.8 3.2 0.8 1.6 1.5 1.4 Produced by DECPG (Trang Nguyen, Gerard Kambou and Xinghao Gong). Number 272 | July 24, 2015 Financial Markets 1 2014 2015 2014 2015 MRV 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Interest rates and LIBOR (%) U.S. Fed Funds Effective 0.18 0.10 0.14 0.11 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.13 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.13 ECB repo 1.00 1.25 0.88 0.55 0.12 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 US$ LIBOR 3-months 0.34 0.34 0.43 0.27 0.23 0.24 0.26 0.28 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.29 EURIBOR 3-months 0.75 1.34 0.49 0.15 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.21 0.17 0.16 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 US 10-yr Treasury yield 3.20 2.77 1.79 2.33 2.49 2.27 1.96 2.15 2.59 2.53 2.41 2.52 2.29 2.32 2.20 1.88 1.98 2.04 1.92 2.19 2.35 2.35 German Bund, 10 yr 2.78 2.65 1.57 1.63 1.07 0.77 0.35 0.53 1.35 1.19 1.01 1.00 0.87 0.79 0.64 0.45 0.35 0.26 0.16 0.58 0.83 0.79 Spreads (basis points) JP Morgan Emerging Markets 301 341 342 319 301 367 425 380 282 282 310 312 349 350 402 443 420 411 388 369 384 392 Asia 206 218 216 219 195 202 219 201 189 195 202 187 207 193 206 233 215 208 206 195 203 208 Europe 247 301 320 267 262 319 399 336 236 244 274 270 295 293 368 417 396 384 350 327 330 319 Latin America & Caribbean 360 404 393 379 366 471 537 487 343 336 373 390 443 455 516 560 531 521 488 471 504 525 Middle East 342 366 449 435 369 398 449 420 360 372 379 358 395 388 411 452 452 443 441 409 410 417 Africa 274 364 337 322 280 319 373 355 278 278 292 270 307 306 343 385 364 371 361 345 358 368 Stock Indices (end of period) 2 Global (MSCI) 331 300 340 409 417 417 425 424 429 423 432 417 419 426 417 410 432 425 436 435 424 428 High-Income ($ Index) 1280 1183 1339 1661 1698 1710 1741 1736 1743 1714 1749 1698 1708 1740 1710 1678 1773 1741 1778 1779 1736 1767 United States (S&P-500) 1258 1258 1426 1848 1972 2059 2068 2063 1960 1931 2003 1972 2018 2068 2059 1995 2105 2068 2086 2107 2063 2114 Euro Area (S&P-350$) 1124 1005 1143 1339 1411 1401 1624 1552 1401 1380 1404 1411 1382 1425 1401 1502 1603 1624 1618 1630 1552 1629 Japan (Nikkei-225) 10229 8455 10395 16291 16174 17674 19207 20236 15162 15621 15425 16174 16414 17460 17451 17674 18798 19207 19520 20563 20236 20594 Developing Markets (MSCI) 1151 916 1055 1003 1005 956 975 972 1051 1066 1088 1005 1016 1005 956 962 990 975 1048 1004 972 931 EM Asia 468 379 447 446 460 457 481 475 472 485 489 460 467 467 457 468 479 481 514 499 475 455 EM Europe 529 395 473 438 374 297 302 311 435 403 399 374 369 353 297 286 313 302 338 320 311 299 EM Europe & Middle East 450 336 402 372 321 257 258 266 360 340 337 321 314 303 257 247 269 258 286 271 266 258 EM Latin America & Caribbean 4614 3602 3798 3201 3171 2728 2451 2517 3370 3399 3664 3171 3158 3008 2728 2555 2654 2451 2693 2496 2517 2382 Exchange Rates (LCU / USD) High Income Euro Area 0.76 0.72 0.78 0.75 0.76 0.80 0.89 0.90 0.74 0.74 0.75 0.78 0.79 0.80 0.81 0.86 0.88 0.92 0.92 0.90 0.9 0.92 Japan 87.76 79.74 79.85 97.61 104.04 114.62 119.16 121.38 102.07 101.75 102.98 107.39 108.02 116.40 119.44 118.33 118.78 120.37 119.53 120.87 123.7 124.12 Developing Brazil 1.76 1.67 1.95 2.16 2.28 2.55 2.87 3.07 2.23 2.22 2.27 2.34 2.45 2.55 2.65 2.64 2.82 3.15 3.04 3.06 3.1 3.22 China 6.77 6.46 6.31 6.15 6.16 6.15 6.24 6.20 6.23 6.20 6.15 6.14 6.13 6.13 6.19 6.22 6.25 6.24 6.20 6.20 6.2 6.21 Egypt 5.63 5.94 6.07 6.87 7.15 7.15 7.49 7.61 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.27 7.59 7.60 7.60 7.62 7.6 7.83 India 45.73 46.67 53.41 58.55 60.59 61.96 62.24 63.43 59.76 60.06 60.83 60.87 61.40 61.70 62.77 62.20 62.06 62.48 62.69 63.76 63.8 63.58 Russia 30.37 29.41 31.06 31.86 36.31 47.98 62.87 52.69 34.37 34.75 36.17 38.01 40.96 46.30 56.67 64.33 64.16 60.13 52.82 50.65 54.6 57.19 South Africa 7.32 7.26 8.21 9.65 10.77 11.22 11.74 12.08 10.68 10.66 10.66 10.99 11.06 11.09 11.51 11.56 11.58 12.08 11.99 11.97 12.3 12.41 Memo: USA nominal effective rate 100.19 98.53 102.00 104.76 110.57 114.05 119.74 121.50 109.31 109.43 110.61 111.67 112.66 113.83 115.67 117.82 119.65 121.73 121.39 121.04 122.1 123.45 1 MRV = Most Recent Value. 2 MSCI Indices for Asia, Africa, and Europe and C. Asia, for 2008 are calculated from February-December, due to data availability. 3 Change expressed in levels for interest rates and spreads; percent change for stock market and exchange rates. Commodity Prices 2014 2015 2014 2015 MRV 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June 1 Oil price, $/b, nominal 79 104 105 104 100 75 52 60 108 105 100 96 86 77 61 47 55 53 57 63 61 53 Non - Oil Index 2 .. 97 87 80 74 71 66 64 77 76 75 72 71 72 70 67 66 64 64 65 63 62 3 Metals and Minerals Index 103 117 99 94 89 83 74 73 87 90 90 87 84 84 80 75 74 73 73 76 72 65 Baltic Dry Index 4 2755 1545 916 1215 954 1105 614 629 912 796 944 1123 1101 1332 881 727 539 576 591 596 699 1118 1 Simple average of Brent, Dubai and WTI. 2 Base Date = Jan 3, 2011 due to data availability. The Index component combination in the Weekly tables differs from that of the Pink Sheet. 3 Base Date = Jan 4, 2010 due to data availability. The Index component combination in the Weekly tables differs from that of the Pink Sheet. 4 Base Date = May 1, 1985 Produced by DECPG (Trang Nguyen, Gerard Kambou and Xinghao Gong). Number 272 | July 24, 2015