IRAQ Impact Evaluation of the Iraq Transport Corridors What is the impact of road construction and improvements on local economic activity in surrounding areas? Context Iraq Transport In 2014, Iraq was in a transition phase before facing a violent armed- Corridors Project civil war which led to a weak and underdeveloped infrastructure sector. The poor condition of the road network has significantly IMPLEMENTING AGENCY: affected mobility. At the macro level, it heightens cost of trade and Ministry of Construction and Housing. commerce, impeding international and inter-regional mobility of DIRECT BENEFICIARIES: Road users of both Expressway 1 and Girsheen – Suheila Intersection along the North-South transport corridor. COMPONENTS: Road construction, maintenance and rehabilitation; Design and enhancement of road safety features; Institutional Strengthening and Capacity Building. For more information about the Iraq Transport Corridors Project visit: http://projects. worldbank.org/P131550/transport-corridors- project?lang=enfinanc?lang=en goods and services. Poor quality roads create a barrier to firms in This evaluation employs a panel framework with fixed effects accessing labor and markets. Households face fewer employment based on the timing and location of road improvements to assess and economic opportunities and have poor access to health and the impact of road construction and road improvements on education services due to the underdeveloped road network. economic activity within 10km of the improved road. Publicly Rehabilitation of transport infrastructure is one of Iraq’s top priorities. available remotely-sensed nighttime lights data serve as a proxy for local economic development. One key advantage of this Through the Iraq Transport Corridors Project, the World Bank impact evaluation is that it takes advantage of widely available supports Iraq’s Transport Sector Master Plan as part of the and existing spatial data. collaboration with the Ministry of Transport (MOT) towards laying the ground for establishing a modern and efficient national transport system. Policy Relevance In addition to this technical assistance, the Bank is financing There is very little research on the wider economic benefits of the rehabilitation of a 257km segment of Expressway 1, a transport infrastructure in high fragility contexts—especially heavily travelled road for decades in the south-east of Iraq and the the resilience of economic agents when there is higher risk construction of a 23km segment in the North. With the help of the associated to the use of that infrastructure. This impact evaluation World Bank and other multilateral donors, the government prepared will be the first assessment of transport investments in Iraq. The its National Development Plan (NDP) with transport infrastructure knowledge generated through this activity will provide lessons playing a key role. The NDP complements the Poverty Reduction for other fragile and conflict-affected countries and lower middle- Strategy (PRS) and as part of its Transport Corridors Project, the income countries. government expressed interest in an impact evaluation that will Moreover, although Iraq is a resource rich country and used to generate rigorous evidence to inform future corridor investments have one of the most advanced transport infrastructure in the in Iraq. region, extreme poverty exists, with spatial variations, and prosperity unequally shared. The poor condition of the road Impact Evaluation Research network has significantly affected mobility, particularly for the poor, and especially in rural areas. Most of the population is The primary goal of this impact evaluation is to examine whether inadequately serviced by unpaved roads with the impact falling transport investments increase economic activity in urban areas disproportionately on low income groups. This study will provide and lay-by areas near the road corridor. The evaluation focuses on evidence that will help evaluate the contribution of the transport the impact of the first two project components: i). Road construction, to the twin development goals of decreasing extreme poverty and maintenance and rehabilitation; and ii). Design and enhancement promoting shared prosperity as well as progress in reaching the of road safety features. Sustainable Development Goals in education and health. A randomized control trial (RCT) is not possible for the Iraq Finally, this evaluation can serve as a model for other projects Transport Corridors Project, which has been underway for several that seek to use geospatial data to evaluate corridors, especially years. There are additional research challenges working in a fragile, in high fragility or developing country contexts where data are conflict-affected state like Iraq. Instead, to perform a rigorous often scarce. evaluation, the research team is conducting a Geospatial Impact Evaluation (GIE), merging multiple sources of spatial data with quasi- For more information email dimetransport@worldbank.org or experimental methods to determine the project’s impact. visit www.worldbank.org/en/research/dime/brief/transport The ieConnect for Impact program links project teams with researchers to develop rigorous and innovative impact evaluations that both substantially improve the evidence-base for policy making and induce global shifts in transport policy. The ieConnect program is a collaboration between the World Bank’s Development Impact Evaluation (DIME) group in the Development Research Group and the Transport Global Practice (TR GP). This program is part of the Impact Evaluation to Development Impact (i2i) multi-donor trust fund and is funded with UK aid from the UK government (DFID) and by the European Union (EU).