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ENVIRONMENT125
FAC I LIZ TY       JJANUARY 1994
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A Review of
Country Case Studies on Climate Change:
Jan Fuglestvedt -
Ted Hanisch
Ivar lsaksen
Rolf Seirod
Jon Strand
Asbj0rn Torvanger
Working Paper
Number 7
UNEP
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GLOBAL
ENVIRONMENT
FACILITY
A Review of
Country Case Studies on Climate Change
Jan Fuglestvedt
Ted Hanisch
Ivar Isaksen
Rolf Seirod
Jon Strand
Asbj0rn Torvanger
Working Paper
Number 7
(0
UNEP
THE WORLD BANK



( 1994
The Global Environment Facility
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ISSN 1020-0894



A Review of Country Case Studies on Climate Change
This paper is the fourth among a series of GEF Working Papers to deal with the Program for Measuring
Incremental Costs for the Environment (PRINCE). The GEF is a financial mechanism that provides grants
to developing countries for projects aimed at protecting the global environment.
PRINCE was initiated in February 1993 at a workshop held at the Tata Energy Research Institute in New
Delhi. It covers methodological issues, field tests, and dissemination related to the technical issues of
measuring incremental cost. This is a concept central to the GEF; the two conventions to which it is linked-
the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) and the Convention on Biological Diversity; and
the Montreal Protocol dealing with ozone depletion.
Participating governments provided US $2.6 million from the Core Fund for a three-year program. It builds
on existing work concerning the phase-out of ozone-depleting substances and concentrates on the
incremental costs of reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases. Parallel work will extend the concept of
incrernental costs to the protection of international waters and the conservation of biodiversity.
The GEF commissioned the Center for International Climate and Energy Research, Oslo (CICERO) to
study ways of improving current approaches to country studies on climate change, drawing on the
experience to date. This paper provides an overview of the status of country studies on climate change.
It examines several methodological and reporting issues, stressing the importance of comparability.
Comparisons of ecological and economic efficiency are essential in determining the eligibility of projects
for GEF funding. The paper also looks at the extent to which the studies are meeting or plan to meet the
obligations of the Parties under the FCCC. Areas covered include inventories of sources and sinks of
greenhouse gases, impacts and vulnerability assessments, response strategies and their cost-effectiveness,
the implications of country projects that have transnational benefits, and the usefulness of country studies
for government policy-makers.
Ted Hanisch is Director of CICERO, Jan Fuglestvedt is a Research Fellow, and Ivar Isaksen is Research
Director, as well as Professor of Geophysics at the University of Oslo. Rolf Selrod is Senior Environmental
Adviser at CICERO. Jon Strand is Professor of Economics at the University of Oslo. Asbj0m Torvanger
is Senior Research Officer, and G0rill Kristiansen, who compiled Appendix IV, is Research Fellow at
CICERO.
CICERO has benefitted from the assistance of Audun Rosland of the Norwegian State Pollution Authority,
Kristin Rypdal of the Central Bureau of Statistics of Norway, and Peter Usher of the United Nations
Environment Programme.
The other Working Papers currently in the PRINCE series are numbers 4, 5, 6 and 8.
iii



J.



Contents
Entroduction                                                                             1
I       Country Studies                                                                           2
2       Inventories of Sources and Sinks of Greenhouse Gases                                      4
3       Impact and Vulnerability Assessment                                                       9
4       Cost-Effective Interventions                                                             13
5       Costs and Staffing Patterns                                                              18
6       The Usefulness of Country Studies for Government Policy-Makers                           20
Tables in text
1.   Reported activity on country studies or elements of such studies                    3
2    Indicative budget for UNDP study of fourteen countries in Asia                     18
References                                                                              23
Appendix I  Studies, Terms of Reference and Papers Assessed                             26
Appendix II Country Study Summary                                                       28
Appendix III Criteria for Review and Assessment of GHG Inventories                      42
Appendix IV Biological Effects of Climate Change on Natural
Ecosystems-Overview of Major International Research Programs                44
v



Abbreviations
ADB           Asian Development Bank
BAHC         Bliospheric Aspects of the Hydrologic Cycle
CFC          Chlorofluorocarbon
CF4          Carbon tetra flouride
CH4          Methane
CICERO       C'enter for International Climate and Energy Research, Oslo
CLIMEX       C'limate Change Experiment
FCCC         Framework Convention on Climate Change
GAIM        CGlobal Analysis, Interpretation and Modelling
GCM          General Circulation Model
GCTE         Grlobal Change and Teffestrial Ecosystems
GEMS         Global Environment Monitoring System
GHG          Greenhouse gas
GLOBEC        Grlobal Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics
GOEZS        Global Ocean Euphotic Zone Study
GWP          Global warming potential
HCFC         Hydro-chlorofluorocarbon
HFC          Hydrofluorocarbon
ICSU         International Council of Scientific Unions
IEA          International Energy Agency
IGAC         International Global Atmospheric Chemistry
IGBP         International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme
IPCC         Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
ISBI         International Sustainable Biosphere Initiative
IUBS         International Union of Biological Sciences
IUCN         International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (now World
Conservation Union)
JGOFS        Jcint Global Ocean Flux Studies
LOICZ        Land Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone
MAB          Man and the Biosphere
NO2          Nitrogen dioxide
NO           Nitrous oxide
x
03           Ozone
OECD         Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
PRINCE       Program for Measuring Incremental Costs for the Environment
SCAR         Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research
SCOPE        Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment
S02          Sulfur dioxide
SPREP        Swiss-Proclim Ecosphere Greenhouse Gases Reduction Program
UNDP         United Nations Development Programme
UNEP         United Nations Environment Programme
UNESCO       United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization
WCRP          World Climate Research Programme
WMO           World Meteorological Organization
vi



Introduction
Country case studies are important instruments for   * An assessment of the current and projected level
determining national climate policies and for adding  of activity in the field of country studies on
to the global knowledge on climate issues. They are  climate change, including an inventory of studies
also the basis for examining the obligations of the  underway or planned
Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention   * A review of the terms of reference for such
on Climate Change (FCCC), and for developing and  studies including a review and assessment of:
assessing projects eligible for financing by the Global  their objectives; methodological approaches; pa-
Enviromnent Facility (GEF). These country studies  rameters and assumptions used, including treat-
must be comparable to allow the GEF to choose   ment of discount rate, costing assumptions,
effectively between potential investments in the na-  abatement targets, and so on; the range of policy
tions being assessed. Comparisons of ecological and  and investment or expenditure options to be
economic efficiency are especially important.   reviewed and assessed; and the extent to which
local staff were involved in the design and imple-
In this paper, the term country studies refers to  mentation of these studies
official national studies on climate change covering   * A review of the costs and staffing patterns of such
parts or all of the following areas: inventories of  studies, including the expertise required to un-
sources and sinks of greenhouse gases (GHGs),   dertake specific studies
impacts and vulnerability assessments, andresponse   * An assessment of the usefulness of those studies
strategies and options. Such studies focus on adap-  completed or underway, with a focus on provid-
tation and on GHG abatement.                    ing a clear strategy for future activities, including
provisions and expectations laid down in the
As many of the studies are not yet complete, the  FCCC.
focus of this review is on workplans, terms of
reference, and underlying assumptions and param-   The availability of completed studies and terms of
eters used in their development. Time constraints  reference for such studies was meager. This review
have prevented the inclusion of interviews with the   and assessment is, therefore, built on a few studies
institutions involved in the preparation of such   and terms of reference, as listed in the references.
studies.                                      While an in-depth study of all the issues men-
tioned was not possible, we hope that this exercise
The terms of reference of the review state that the   will further the discussions and the development
following elements should be considered, with an   of more comparable methodologies for future
emphasis in each instance on costing exercises:  studies.



Country ';tudies
The FCCC commits all Parties, from the time of   Data and methodology
entry into force of the Convention, to develop and   Much of the relevant data needed to make a useful
periodically update national inventories of sources   country study are difficult to obtain in some coun-
and sinks of GHGs using comparable methodolo-  tries. A comprehensive and authoritative methodol-
gies. It also commits the Parties to formulate and   ogy for full-fledged country studies has not yet been
implement prograrns for mitigation and adaptation.   developed.
All Parties are obliged to take climatic change
considerations into account in their social, econom-   Much work has, however, been done regarding the
ic, and environmental policies and actions. National  methodological elements of such studies. The Inter-
inventories are to be published and communicated   governmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC)
to the Conference of the Parties of the FCCC.  Working Group I has, together with the Organiza-
tion for Economic Cooperation and Development
Legal and financial commitments             (OECD), provided a draft methodology for devel-
Parties from developed countries must meet com-   oping national inventories of emissions and sinks.
mitments such as the adoption of national policies   A revised version will be presented by mid-1993.
and corresponding measures to demonstrate that  Working Group II has prepared a report on "Prelim-
they are taking the lead in work on climate change.  inary Guidelines for Assessing Impacts of Climate
They are also obliged to communicate this informa-   Change." A subgroup of the earlier Working Group
tion within six months of the entry into force of the  III has developed "A Common Methodology for
Convention, while developing country Parties are   Assessing Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise." The
obliged to respond within three years, and least  United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
developed country Parties at their own discretion.   has, through Ris0 National Laboratory, initiated a
project to work on a methodological framework for
The ability of participating developing countries to  undertaking cost assessments of GHG abatement.
present information on inventories of sources and   The GEF has commissioned a study on economic
sinks of GHGs and on programs for mitigation and   costs of carbon dioxide (CO2) reduction measures.
adaptation prior to the first Conference of the Par-   Draft guidelines for a comprehensive set of country
ties, expected by late 1994, will depend largely on   studies have also been submitted by Finland and the
the avail- 'ilicy of bilateral and multilateral funding   United States.
as laid down in the Convention. Input from these
countries also depends on the availability of basic   Ongoing and planned activities
national data and on human, technological, and   The main thrust of information on planned and
institutional resources.                    existing country studies stems from the work of
2



UNEP and its second country study report of No-    fourteen developing Asian countries. The pro-
vember 5, 1992. The recent eighth session of the   gram will deal with inventories of emissions and
IPCC in Harare hailed UNEP for its work in this    sinks; identify measures to reduce emissions or
sector, and appealed to all countries to assist UNEP  enhance sinks, and estimate the costs and effec-
in its biannual updating of this activity report. A  tiveness of these measures; develop scenarios of
country study summary from this report is enclosed  emissions from different sources; and prepare
as Appendix II for easy reference.                 policy responses.
* UNEP is involved in projects on emission inven-
As of October 1992, sixty-five countries had under-  tories, impact assessments, response options,
taken, or planned to undertake, some form of coun-  and economic assessments of limiting GHGs. A
try study. Several other countries have indicated  country study program is underway on GHG
their interest in such studies, but have lacked the  sources and sinks in eleven countries. UNEP has
financial and technical resources to participate.  supported three studies on the potential socio-
Those country studies already underway are fairly  economic effects of climate change in five devel-
evenly split among emission inventories, impact    oping countries. UNEP has also helped develop
assessiments, and mitigation analyses (see table 1).  a methodology for assessing vulnerability to sea-
level rise and initiated a program on techniques
In the multilateral arena, the involvement of the key  for GHG-abatement costing studies.
players is as follows:                           * The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has a coun-
try study program for eight developing Asian
The United Nations Development Programme         countries. The program will establish a common
(UNiDP) has a country study program involving    framework for country studies, assess the socio-
economic impacts of climate change, identify
policy options for limiting net emissions, ana-
stables 1. Reporetedof auctivtyonouny            lyze adaptation to climate change, and develop
studies or elements of such studies              national and regional strategies. The ADB also
Studies on  Studies on Studies on    provides assistance to China and Thailand.
Region    inventories   effects   mitigation
OECD region'  15         16         19        The United States has supported studies on patterns
Countries with                                of GHG emissions and mitigation options in
economies in                                Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico
transition'   4         2          3        Nigeria, the Republic of Korea, Sierra Leone,
Asia and                                      Venezuela, and countries of the Gulf Council.
the Pacific3    6      15         17
Latin America'   4        6          3        Major international programs that include studies
Africa'        10         9          6        related to the potential biological effects of climate
Source: UNEP's second Country Study Report, Novem-  change are presented in Appendix IV. The country
ber IL 992.stdwokhphlbyteICin19inBre
Notes: 1. Informnation from 19 out of 24 countries  study workshop held by the IPCC in 1992 in Berke-
2. Information from 7 out of 14 countries  ley, California, identified considerable information
3. Information from 22 out of 47 countries  on technological options (IPCC 1992c).
4. Information from 18 out of 32 countries
5. Information from 26 out of 50 countries
3



Inventories of Sources
2   and Sinks of Greenhouse Gases
Inventories of sources and sinks of GHGs' are a   bal warning potentials (GWPs) that were performed
prerequisite for identifying the extent to which   as part of the IPCC assessment.
energy, industry, and other sectors are contributing
to climate change, as well as for implementing cost-   The first three compounds noted above-CO29 CH,4,
effective measures to limit and mitigate such change.  and NO2-have important natural as well as anthro-
They also form starting points for projections of   pogenic sources. To understand the significance of
emissions and provide the basis for further negoti-  anthropogenic emissions it is important to under-
ations on GHG reduction. If comprehensive nation-   stand the natural cycles of these gases. Very little is
al inventories are made worldwide, they will help to   presently known, and major efforts are needed to
explain changes in the atmosphere caused by hu-   estimate the country-specific contributions to the
man activity and provide the proving ground for   natural cycles. The significance of the different
new methods of making inventories of sources and   biogenic sources may vary, and regional and coun-
sinks. Such inventories may also form the basis of  try differences should be recognized. It is also
a more permanent network for the exchange of data  important to clarify the extent to which human
and information. The emphasis given to these ob-   activity has modified the strength of the natural
jectives of inventories may differ among countries.  sources and sinks.
To ensure that the inventories are relevant to global
warming, it is crucial to have a good understanding   Most of the chlorine compounds that have a green-
of the effects of individual gases on the radiative   house effect are of anthropogenic origin, and their
forcing of the climate.                       sources are well established. Furthermore, the CFCs,
HCFCs, and the chlorine compounds methyl bro-
Gases affecting the climate                   mide and carbon tetra chloride are regulated under
The source gases that affect the climate can be   the Montreal Protocol due to their impact on the
divided into two groups. First are the GHGs that   ozone layer, and are also considered here. The HFCs
have a direct effect on climate. Such gases are CO2,  (particularly HFC- 134a) have no ozone effect and
methane (CH4), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and the   therefore are not regulated through the Montreal
chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydro-CFCs (HCFCs),   Protocol, but could have a noticeable GWP and
hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), and other chlorine   therefore should be included in the inventory list.
compounds. Their relative impact on the climate is   The same is true for carbon tetra fluoride (CF4),
rather well established through the calculated glo-   which has a high GWP and should also be included
I     The term greenhouse gas refers to all the gases mentioned below, although sulphur dioxide affects climate through reflection of solar
radiation.
4



in the inventories. Although CF4 isnotamajorGHG    possibility of injecting CO2 into the ocean is under
in global terms, it may be an important gas for  investigation. Before such a measure is implemen-
certain countries (such as aluminum producers).    ted, a thorough understanding of circulation and
chemistry in the oceans is needed.
Not to be overlooked are emissions of gases that
have a negligible direct greenhouse effect, but are   For the other GHGs, the dominant sink is provided
indirectly affecting the climate through their impact   by atmospheric oxidation, which is not easily con-
on chemical and physical processes in the atmo-  trolled and is linked to other environmental problems.
sphere, and thereby on the GHGs that are affected
by chemistry. Source gases that belong to this group   Sources
are nitrous oxide (NO"), carbon monoxide (CO),   Adequate methods exist for developing national
and hydrocarbons. GHGs that will be affected by   inventories of the sources and sinks of the major
emissions of these gases are methane and ozone.   GHGs. An important obstacle is the inherent uncer-
Ozone (03) is not emitted, but is formed in the   tainty of current estimates of sources and sinks. The
atmosphere. It affects climate through interaction   different source categories are, however, identified.
withl both long-wave radiation and solar (short-   The main effort should be to estimate emissions
wave) radiation. Emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2)   within the categories that are important for the
may also, through the formation of sulphate aero-  individual countries.
sols, affect climate. These aerosols reflect solar
radiation, and may also affect the radiation budget   The main reason for the increase in atmospheric
through changes in cloud optical properties. The   CO2 is the use of fossil fuels in energy combustion.
climate impact of this second group of anthropo-   Another source of increase is changing land use. A
genic gases cannot be assessed with satisfactory   small, relatively well-known source is cement pro-
accuracy at present, as too little is known about their  duction. There are other instances where the origins
impact on GHGs and the aerosols in the atmo-   of emissions are uncertain, and where the contribu-
sphere. Nevertheless, it is believed that the indirect  tion from individual countries can be important.
climatic effect of such gases can be important.   Examples include emissions from the production
Studies indicate that the increased reflection caused   and use of lime, from gas wells, and from landfills.
by increased aerosol formation from SO2 has a   Methane comes from many sources, but the relative
cooling influence on the northern hemisphere. A    contributions of these sources remain uncertain. A
large effort is underway to study the indirect green-  large share is anthropogenic, emitting from live-
house effects from anthropogenic emissions, and   stock, animal waste, coalbed releases, oil and gas
scientists should soon be in a position to provide   production and transportation, wet rice cultivation,
more reliable values for the climate impact of this   biomass burning, and landfill and other human
second group of gases.                        waste. The sources of NO, are poorly known; both
the natural production and anthropogenic releases
Sinks                                         are connected with large uncertainties. Anthropo-
Large amounts of carbon are continuously trans-   genic impact is due to the use of fertilizer, fossil fuel
ferred between the atmosphere, the ocean, and the   combustion, and processes associated with the man-
terrestrial biosphere. In our current understanding   ufacture of nylon.
of the carbon cycle, there is an apparent imbalance,
often referred to as "the missing sink" of CO2. The   Since assessing emissions of some of the major
terrestrial biomass (including soils) may account   GHGs is difficult, a network to monitor atmospher-
for this. The management of sinks to control atmo-  ic distribution of the gases may prove helpful in
spheric concentrations of GHGs should be oriented   estimating sources as well as in regulating control
toward reforestation and afforestation, which will   measures that affect their distribution. Such a net-
reduce atmospheric CO2 and help control its build-   work operates through the World Meteorological
up. The ocean is a net sink for excess CO2 intro-   Organization (WMO), and could play an important
duced to the atmosphere by human activities. The   role in long-term climate change mitigation.
5



Review and assessment of source and           onafairlydetailedleveltogetherwithsource-specif-
sink inventories                             ic emission factors.
Inventories of sources and sinks for the gases that
affect climate are included in most of the planned or  For CO2, on the other hand, a top-down approach
ongoing country studies. In 1991, the IPCC set up a   is given by the IPCC. This is based mainly on the
work program to develop an approved methodology   supply of primary fuels and requires a complete
for preparing national inventories of GHG emis-  balance of primary fuels produced, plus imports
sions and sinks. The program aims to improve the   minusexports,andnetincreaseinstocks.Ifcountries
quality and the comparability of national invento-  choose to use their own method, their approach
ries. The IPCC default methodology is not meant to  should still be consistent with this default method.
be obligatory. The countries could use other meth-
ods when better data and measurements are avail-  Testing of the EPCC methodology is the main objective
able. It was recommended, however, that the   of UNEP (1992a). Itis not explicitly recommended by
commonreporting framework given by the IPCC be   UNDP (1992). In ADB (1992), an examination of
used by all countries to allow for comparison of  accepted methodologies and a proposal for any modi-
these inventories (OECD 1991). The Conference of  fied methods are required. Refinements to the invento-
the Parties is later expected to decide on the format  ry methodology will be made through UNEP (1992a)
and guidelines for reporting. To assure comparabil-  and UNDP (1992). Regional studies to obtain better
ity, the inventories should be transparent in ap-  knowledge are promoted, and the importance of the
proach, definitions, and assumptions. An inventory  distinctive characteristics of the regions and countries
is transparent when the methods are fully described,  are addressed by all three agencies. Methodological
the assumptions are documented, and the GHG data  requirements are, however, given in broad, unspecified
are reported in a common framework. This means  terms. The roles of the sources and sinks in the natural
that national methodologies are acceptable, provid-  cycles are given some attention in the studies. The
ed assumptions are clearly set out and scientifically   Amazonian subproject in UNEP (1992a), for example,
defensible, and that reporting categories consistent  aims to gain a better understanding of the capacity of
with the IPCC methodology are used (IPCC 1992c).  the Amazonian rainforest as a net sink of CO2. It also
The IPCC methodology is still being refined, and   sets out to analyze the effects of deforestation on the
output from the country studies is important in this  forest's ability to sequester carbon.
process. It is thus essential that this work be closely
linked to the activity of the IPCC.           Disaggregated approaches have been applied in the
studies from Canada, Norway and Poland (bottom-up
This section reviews and assesses the terms of refer-  methods). The methods are simple to update and time
ence for studies that are not completed (ADB 1992;  series are easy to make if sufficient activity data are
UNDP 1992; UNEP 1992a), and inventories the   available. Attention has been given to sources that are
reports from the completed studies (Norwegian State  important for these countries, and results from national
Pollution Authority 1992; Jaques 1992; and the  studies have been applied. The use of the total amount
Polish Foundation for Energy Efficiency 1992). The   of carbon for calculations of CO2 emissions varies. The
specific criteria that have been applied as a basis for  IPCC method recommends that all carbon be included
the review and assessment are giveninAppendix III.  in the CO2 emissions estimate (OECD 1991a). This
They are based on the recommendations given in   means that carbon in hydrocarbons and carbon monox-
OECD (1991) and Leggett (1992), and on what  ide should be counted as CO2. However, it may be
participating scientists consider important for assur-  argued that carbon sequestered in products for more
ing adequate preparation of the inventories.  than twenty to fifty years, such as through the produc-
tion of silicon carbide, should be subtracted.
Methodology
The IPCC prepared bottom-up methods for studying   Canada, Norway and Poland have tested the IPCC
CH4, N02, NOR, CO, and non-methane hydrocar-  method and compared it with national methods. For
bons. This means that several activity data are used   Norway and Canada this was done as the first step in
6



a transparency study initiated by the IPCC (Norwe-  In ADB (1992), the terms of reference examine
gian State Pollution Control Authority 1992; Gra-  GHGs without stating explicitly whether the gases
ham Associates 1992). None of these three studies  with indirect effects on climate should be included.
have used the same year as their basis. Lack of data  Neither reference year, time intervals, nor units of
is hampering the use of the IPCC methodology for  emission are specified. No direct requirements for a
the Polish study, and recommendations are made to  common set of source and sink categories are given,
determine the necessary data sets for using this  and no definitions are required. However, since
method. Recommendations are also given for adapt-  gaining experience with the IPCC method is the
ing the method to Polish conditions. This experience   main objective of UNEP (1992a), several reporting
might also be valuable for other countries with  requirements are implicit.
transition economies.
The results from the completed studies are well
Few estimates exist of natural sources and sinks with  arranged. Full molecular mass units are used. Such
a discussion of their roles in natural cycles. Canada,  requirements are not given in the terms of reference
however, has estimated natural emissions of NO2 and  for the uncompleted studies. Assessments of uncer-
CH4. In addition, a carbon budget, although incom-  tainty are generally absent, but they are treated to
plete, has been developed. CO2 ernissions from the  some extent in the Polish study where results ob-
burning of wood are calculated in all three studies.  tained with different assumptions and parameter
These emissions are,in accordance with the guidelines  values are compared. HFCs and CF4 have, due to
from IPCC, not included in the total CO2 emissions  recent findings on their climate impact, received
reported. InNorway, workisbeing initiatedto quantify  limited attention. A preliminary estimate for CF1 is,
the strengths of natural sources and sinks.   however, made for Canada. Likewise, work is un-
derway in Norway to estimate CF4 emissions.
Documentation
Little attention is given to the transparency of meth-  Possible improvements in current approaches
ods and results in the terms of reference for the three  The terms of reference for the uncompleted studies
uncompleted studies. Descriptions and references  are given in far less detail than the requirements
sufficient for a reconstruction are not required. No   provided in Appendix II. The completed studies are
direct specifications are given for reporting emis-  much more in accordance with the criteria in the
sion factors, activity data, and essential assump-  appendix. This may be because the completed stud-
tions. Analyses and explanations for any deviations  ies on inventories are from developed countries or
between data sets, emission factors, and results are  are conducted with assistance from a developed
not in the terms of reference. In ADB (1992), how-  country. In addition, to be able to carry out an
ever, a review of emission factors for methane  estimation of the strength of sources and sinks, one
emissions from rice fields, and CO2 from coal mines  has to apply a rather detailed and well-structured
and coal-fired devices are requested. In addition,  approach. When the planned studies are completed,
socioeconomic indicators should, according to the  the reports may therefore be more in accordance
terms of reference, be collected and compared, and   with the criteria that have been applied in this
the results should be compared with preliminary  review and assessment.
estimates. The documentation is clear and thorough
in the studies on Canada, Norway and Poland. How-  Based on the review of the terms of reference and
ever, the Canadian study's documentation of what is  the completed studies, the following inferences can
included in the activity data for marine and air  be made:
transport is limited.
* As long as the IPCC methodology is recom-
Reporting                                        mended in the terms of reference, several docu-
Different methods may be used, but it is critical that    mentation and reporting requirements are
the results be compared with other studies, and that    implicit. More explicit requirements for docu-
explanations be given for any deviations.        mentation and reporting would, however, help
7



to ensure that the projects are carried out in a   * The difference between countries with respect to
consistent, comparable way, in accordance with  the importance of the sources and sinks should be
the overall aim of the country studies. A stan-  emphasized, and national or regional studies
dard summary should be included.              should be promoted to gain a better understand-
* Countries should clearly account for any devia-  ing of important processes. Researchers must be
tions from the IPCC default methodology.      mindful that emission factors and assumptions
* Comparisons of the results obtained with differ-  that are valid in some countries or regions may
ent assumptions and methods are useful and    not be applicable elsewhere.
should be perfonrmed if resources are available.   * The natural cycles could be given more attention,
* A method with disaggregation detailed enough  thereby contributing to the understanding of the
to use for national policy-making and for imple-  full cycles of GHGs. It would also be useful to
menting measures to reduce emissions and en-  study the extent to which human activities have
hance sinks should be promoted.               modified the strengths of the natural sources and
* The country studies should be used as an oppor-  sinks.
tunity to collect data and information that have   * Gases that have an indirect effect on climate
been missing in international and national sta-  should be included.
tistics so far. For example, data for non-com-   * The issue of uncertainty should be given higher
mercial energy could be made available if this  priority. Preferably, uncertainty ranges for the
was specified clearly in the terms of reference.  estimates should be given.
8



Impact and
3   Vulnerability Assessment
National assessments of climate impact and vulner-  related either to present day climatic variations,
ability are essential building blocks in making dam-  such as droughts or floods, or to paleoclimateolog-
age-cost projections and in developing efficient  ical analysis. Based on such vulnerability studies of
national response strategies. Vulnerability to cli-  climatic variations, possible climate impacts from
mate change may be defined as a nation's ability to  anthropogenic climate change may be projected
cope with the consequences of the range of impacts  and assessed. One problem with this methodology
of c]limatic changes that may follow from increasing  is the uncertain predictive power of past climate
concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere. Human  events when applied to the study of long-term
activities and natural systems show different degrees  climate change caused by anthropogenic GHG
of sensitivity to climate change. Thus the ability to  emissions.
cope with a changing climate depends on political
and socioeconomic conditions and on natural eco-  Review of climate impact in physical and
systems. Impacts of climate change can be defined as  biological terms
the consequences (biological, physical and econom-  Physical and biological climate impacts can be
ic) of a particular scenario with respect to the path of  divided into three groups. The first consists of
future global GHG emissions, given estimated cli-  physical impacts such as sea-level rise, loss of land,
mate changes.                                and damage to infrastructure due to hurricanes,
floods and the like. The second are biological im-
Regional climate change                      pacts on agriculture, forestry, fishing, and aquacul-
A first step in a country study of the probable impacts  ture related to changes in precipitation, water
of climate change is to establish the basis for estimat-  supply, soil moisture, velocity of hurricanes, and
ing national impacts. Confidence in the prediction of  other variables. The third consists of biological
regional changes based directly on the General Cir-  impacts on natural ecosystems.
culation Models (GCMs) is low, according to Hough-
ton et al. (1992). Even if significant progress is made  There are many types of uncertainties in this area,
in simulating regional climate changes, the viability  but the IPCC Working Group II recommends that
of this basis for prediction remains uncertain. The  the linkages between physical and socioeconomic
IPCC decided in their November 1992 meeting that  impacts should be further explored, and that the
the issue of regional scenarios should receive high   methodologies for quantifying these impacts
priority in the program of Working Group I.  should be improved.
An alternative to projections from GCMs is the use  The impacts from climate change depend on the
of analog data from past climate events. These are  species of plants and animals in the ecosystem
9



under consideration and how they inter-relate   calculations will probably be made at the national
(Kristiansen 1992). The ultimate outcome of cli-  level and, eventually, for groups of countries. With
mate changes at the ecosystem level depends on that   no external effects between countries resulting from
system's ability to adapt, and on a species capacity   adaptation measures, the same basic principle can
to disperse. Most studies suggest that time con-   be applied to the national level. Possible external
straints and limited genetic variability preclude   effects ought to be accounted for, but they are likely
accelerated evolution; the major response will be   to be small for national adaptation measures.
migration. The rate of extinction may then increase.
Whereas some factors tend to increase biomass   The principle of efficient adaptation implies that the
accumulation, others work in the opposite way,  total economic costs (to the world community, to
which will affect the carbon cycle. Indications are   regions, and to individual countries) of a given
that the terrestrial biosphere may act as a net sink for   climate change are minimized. An important aim of
carbon. This remains controversial, however. The   the country studies is therefore to try to identify
major international programs that include studies   efficient adaptation measures, both for individual
related to potential biological effects of climate   countries (including their potential for reducing
change are presented in Appendix IV.           other countries' costs), and for groups of countries.
According to Houghton et al. (1990), the types of   Adaptation measures are of three main types: in-
human settlements most vulnerable to climate   vestments in infrastructure, relocation of structures
change are concentrated in developing countries.  in response to climatic change or sea-level rise, and
These include low-income communities, residents  increased costs borne by businesses and house-
of coastal lowlands and islands, populations in   holds. The adaptations are needed to optimize the
semi-arid grasslands, and the urban poor in squatter   response to temperature rise. Two types of econom-
settlements.                                   ic losses due to climate change can occur after
adaptation measures are adopted: production losses
There is considerable variation in the methodolog-   (for example, in agriculture, forestry and industry)
ical approach taken in the country studies reviewed   and direct welfare impacts on the general popula-
here. About half of the studies employ GCMs com-   tion from the change in climate.
bined with impact models to estimate losses to
agricultural production and soil erosion, whereas   Production losses and direct welfare impacts are
the other half are vulnerability studies based on   difficult to assess. At least three calculation prob-
analog data from present-day climatic variations.  lems are involved:
Most consider both physical impacts from sea-level
rise and biological impacts such as crop losses in   * Choice of an appropriate discount rate
agriculture and forestry, but some are concemed   * General uncertainty concerning impacts, valua-
only with sea-level rise and related loss of land.  tions, technological change and preferences
Coverage of biological impacts on natural ecosys-   * Ethical issues related to intergenerational wel-
tems is far more limited.                         fare comparisons.
Review of climate irnpact and                  The choice of an appropriate discount rate, while of
vulnerability in econiomic terms               crucial importance for cost-benefit analyses of ad-
The economic costs of climate change can be divid-   aptation measures, is discussed further in chapter 4.
ed into two parts. The first is the cost of adapting to   General uncertainties are also important, given the
climate change; the second is the economic losses   long time horizon involved. In general, the greater
resulting after efficienit adaptation has occurred.  the uncertainty of impacts, the more serious should
Efficient adaptation on a global scale implies that   be an adverse impact with a given expected cost (to
net marginal adaptation cost is equal for all  the world or national community), provided a rea-
adaptation measures, and is equal to net marginal   sonable assumption of risk aversion with respect to
reduction in economic loss. Most practical cost   major welfare changes is made. Valuing direct
10



welfare impacts is especially complex. Here, special  ture and other economic sectors, and as loss of
methods forvaluation of environmental goods should  habitable land used for production or occupied by
be applied, and user, option, and existence values  natural ecosystems. These impacts are experienced
related to the environmental changes should be in-  as floods, droughts, increased erosion, sea-level
cluded. An increased rate of technological change is  rise, saltwater intrusion into freshwater aquifers,
imrportant, since adaptation costs and post-adapta-  and so on. Production losses are often expressed as
tion economic losses can be reduced. The direct  percentage losses in sectoral gross domestic prod-
welfare impacts on the population may change if  uct, and may therefore be relatively easily ex-
people's preferences change. Problems of intergen-  pressed in monetary terms. Few efforts have been
erational welfare comparisons are also crucial but  made to value changes to environmental goods.
cannot be discussed adequately here. When calculat-
ing economic impacts of climate change, the lower  Most of the studies consider adaptation measures in
the rate of discount chosen, the greater the weight  such sectors as agriculture, forestry, water resource
accorded to future generations.               management, and coastal zone protection and man-
agement, but few cost calculations for these mea-
The following additional points should be noted:    sures are reported. Calculations of costs and effects
are needed to identify efficient adaptation mea-
* In principle, efficient adaptation and abatement  sures, and to compare the costs of adaptation mea-
should be determined simultaneously and incor-  sures and the costs of remaining impacts. Such
porated into an optimal overall strategy to deal  comparisons are essential to the development of
with climate change. This would also involve  cost-efficient national response strategies. One ex-
consideration of inter-relations between the two  ample of cost calculations is found in the case
whenever they are present. At the national level,  studies of sea-level rise reported in IPCC (1992a).
it should be legitimate to take the climate effect  The IPCC calculations are, however, limited to a
as exogenous when selecting an adaptation  fixed capital value of infrastructure (no deprecia-
mechanism.                                  tion or growth), and are based on the current capital
* The more remote and gradual the climate change,  cost of adaptation measures (no discounting). The
and the shorter the lifetime of investments, the  robustness of adaptation strategies with respect to
lower the adaptation costs are likely to be, and the  uncertain sea-level rise is examined, and probabil-
greater the likelihood that the adaptation will be  ity distributions of sea-level rise are generated.
optimal. This is because future investments and
technological developments are likely to accom-  Possible improvements in current
modate the climate change and be structured in  approaches
such a way as to further reduce impacts, and  Based on the review of the terms of reference and
because a more gradual climate change allows for  the completed studies, the following statements can
ecosystem adaptation.                       be made:
* Adaptation measures indicated in national plans
may not be optimal due to: the inability to identify   . Country studies should include both physical
such measures for all relevant sectors; institution-  vulnerability and impacts, biological vulnerabil-
al and political constraints; and the inherent un-    ity and impacts related to agriculture and forest-
certainty involved in calculating the net benefits    ry, and biological vulnerability and impacts
of the measures. While this paper does not pro-    related to natural ecosystems.
vide a complete guide on how to deal with the  . More emphasis might be placed on climate vul-
various issues, the national plans should at least    nerability analyses of local ecosystems.
discuss the cost calculation problems mentioned   . Country studies should focus more on the uncer-
above.                                        tainty of national and regional climate change
and the uncertainty of vulnerability and impacts.
Country studies commonly assess climate impact in  Uncertainty scenarios of high, medium, and low
economic terms-as production losses in agricul-    vulnerability to climate impact could be ana-
11



lyzed. Moreover, the different components of   ' The cost of adaptation measures should be clearly
climate change should, when appropriate, be   identifiedandevaluatedthroughcost-benefitanal-
considered separately. This includes tempera-  ysis. This would involve comparing the adapta-
ture rise, changes in precipitation patterns, and  tion cost with the expected benefit, and estimating
changes in wind patterns (such as the frequency  the reduced damage from climate change.
of hurricanes).                             * A cost-efficient curve of adaptation measures
* More emphasis should be placed on calculating  should be constructed where projects or measures
likely sectoral production losses in monetary  are ranked according to increasing net expected
terms and on estimating the monetary costs of  cost (total cost minus expected benefit).
other types of climate impacts, such as loss of   * For the evaluation of impacts and adaptation
land.                                         measures, assumptions on time horizon, discount
* Biological and physical impacts ofclimate change  rate, and uncertain impacts and valuations should
should, whenever possiible, be valued, preferably  be harmonized in country studies. In particular,
in economic terms, even if there are particular  all country studies should include one common
problems associated with this.                set of parameter values, whereas additional sets
* Costs should be expressed in one currency, pos-  could be based on national conditions.
sibly 1992 US dollars.
12



4    Cost-Effective Interventions
The third main component of country studies, in    global emissions target for GHGs (measured, for
addition to emissions inventories and impact and  example, in carbon equivalents in terms of their
vulnerability assessments, is cost-effective inter-  GWP) should be implemented with a minimum
ventions. A discussion of cost-effective interven-  net total abatement cost to the world community.
tions should be based on the general framework of    In particular, this assumes that any abatement
cost-benefit analysis.                           measure not yet implemented will have a higher
net cost than those already implemented. It also
Theoretical basis for cost-benefit analysis     implies that abatement projects are realized in
There are three levels of aggregation at which cost-    each country until the net marginal abatement
benefit analysis can be conducted:              cost is the same for all countries.
National cost minimization. The objective here is
* The global optimum. In this theoretical concept, the  basically the same as at the international level-
global net marginal cost of reducing GHG emis-    for all sectors, the net marginal abatement cost is
sions equals the marginal gain to the world commu-    to be equal, with no sectors where efforts not
nity from this reduction. In particular, this implies:    attempted imply lower net marginal cost. One
problem is that national efforts to reduce emis-
(i) Determining the optimal global target for GHG  sions may have external effects for other coun-
emissions;                                    tries-for example, reduced coal consumption in
(ii) Always implementing the most cost-effective  one country may imply less air pollution for
measures for reducing emissions on a global    neighboring countries. Such transnational ef-
scale; and                                    fects should generally be counted when calculat-
(iii) Implementing abatement adaptation mea-    ing a country's net abatement costs. If such
sures until the marginal cost is equal for the two  external effects are important, it may be an argu-
types of measures. Net marginal cost should be  ment in favor of grouping countries according to
defined here as gross marginal cost (output losses    such effects.
and similar items) minus net marginal external
benefits beyond those due to the reduced green-  Counting marginal costs
house effect (such as reduced pollution and tech-  Problems may arise in comparing marginal costs
nological spillovers), resulting from efforts to  across nations (or even within countries) due to
reduce GHG emissions.                       missing markets, widely differing relative prices
among nations, and the use of local currencies with
* Global cost minimization given a global GHG   official values that deviate from market values. For
emissions target. This implies that any given  some products that contribute to emissions such as
13



coal and oil, prices are distorted by subsidies. Fur-  Provisions exist for abatement collaboration be-
thermore, ordinary markets may be thin or  tween nations under the FCCC that confer joint
non-existent (such as for fuelwood and charcoal),  implementation (FCCC, Article 4, paragraph 2 (a)),
and any possible observable market prices are unre-  even if the criteria of joint implementation have to
liable. For countries where such distortions are se-  be negotiated. Even if nations cooperate, abatement
vere, an argument canbe made for simply considering   costs should be minimized in each country.
national-level plans, and not trying to incorporate
these into a global optimizing framework.      To minimize national abatement costs related to
targets, possible measures to reduce net GHG emis-
Some abatement measures may imply technological  sions should be evaluated. Then the least expensive
improvements that may reduce costs in sectors and  set of measures for each given level of abatement
countries other than those directly affected by the  can be chosen. Measures can include project invest-
measures. Such cost savings should, in principle, be  ments, direct regulation, or economic policy instru-
counted in calculating the relevant cost concepts,  ments such as taxes and tradable emission
although this may often be difficult in practice.  allowances. The measures can be ranked according
to net total costs relative to net reduction of GHG
Until this point, the marginal damage curve related   emissions, expressed in 1992 US dollars per ton of
to GHG emissions has been treated as exogenous.  CO2. Where GHGs other than CO2 are involved, the
Some of the relevant national and international ef-  measures can be ranked according to GWP (Hough-
forts to reduce emissions may, however, affect the  ton et al. 1990 and 1992). Instead of reducing gross
economic cost resulting from a given rise in temper-  GHG emissions, net emissions can be reduced by
ature. With a given grlobal emission target, this  sequestering carbon through afforestation. Abate-
should generally be treazted as an externality contrib-  ment measures are often not selective-for exam-
uting to a modification of net marginal abatement  ple, they might reduce pollution or lead to
cost (upward or downward, depending on whether  technological spillovers. These externalities should
cost is increased or decreased).               be accounted for by subtracting the benefits from
the costs of the measure. To make the country
The decision to rank projects according to rising net  studies comparable, sectoral and activity defini-
total marginal cost is critical. Different projects may  tions and reporting units should be standardized.
have different time profiles for costs and benefits,
and the selection of a proper discount rate is often   National abatement costs should be minimized
necessary for such a ranking. Project externalities  across a broad spectrum and at several levels. This
may make the computation of the optimal project  applies (at the sectoral level) to efforts to reduce
sequence extremely difficult, even under certainty.  specific GHGs, and to policy- and project-related
For each project, one has to calculate the externali-  efforts. A cost curve can be calculated by ranking all
ties for all remaining projects that will be imple-  possible projects to reduce net GHG emissions
mented in the future in the appropriate sequence.  according to increasing cost. Total costs are mini-
Such externalities may lead to a net marginal abate-  mized if the cheapest project is chosen first, and
ment cost curve for the individual projects that does  then more projects chosen according to increasing
not follow a uniform upward slope if the implemen-  cost. The costs and ranking of remaining projects
tation of some abatement cost efforts significantly   may be influenced by the implementation or real-
lowers the costs of carrying out other measures.    ization of projects. To correct for externalities of
this type, the costs of the remaining projects should
A practical approach                           be recalculated successively each time the cheaper
The main focus of abateiment efforts is at the national  project is realized. These calculations require a
level. However, extra cost savings for a given abate-  project overview where policy and expenditure
ment target are possible for collaborating countries  measures are listed with cost and emissions impact
as long as there are structural differences between   data. Relevant data on project externalities for these
them, such as differenit national abatement costs.  should also be supplied.
14



Tolp-down and bottom-up approaches            projects with different cost profiles, and eventually
Projects and measures can be divided into two main   with different benefit profiles (calculated on the
groups according to methodological approach.   basis of local and regional pollution and other
Projects in the bottom-up group have well-defined   externalities). If the projects are publicly financed,
investment objectives and a specific investment  the relevant discount rate is the average return to
profile-for example, replacing an existing tech-   public investments, or more precisely, the return to
nology in a production process with the most ener-  the best alternative public investment project. To
gy-efficient new technology. This approach is useful  the extent that direct regulation of private firms and
when choosing between different technologies,   market measures, such as taxes, are employed to
particularly when valuing public GHG abatement  induce abatement efforts, the regulation and taxing
projects. The discussion has so far been based on a   levels should be based on national cost-benefit
technology-specific, bottom-up approach. The ba-   analyses where the appropriate discount rate is
sic rules for optimal project selection and sequenc-   applied. In such an instance, the appropriate dis-
ing should in principle, however, apply also when   count rate required to compare projects and mea-
more general measures (such as taxes and subsi-  sures of different time profiles is the average return
dies) are used.                               to public investments.
A disadvantage of the bottom-up approach is the   The average return to public investments may vary
difficulty in accounting for interdependencies be-   among countries due to different political systems
tween projects. However, some interdependencies   and priorities, and due to capital market imperfec-
between, for example, energy technologies or  tions. Consequently, the appropriate discount rate
projects, can be accounted for in energy-system   for abatement project calculations may also vary.
models. In the top-down approach, a macroeco-
nomic model is employed to analyze the effects of   Uncertainties about climate change complicate a
more general policy measures and programs, such   long-term cost-benefit analysis, making the calcu-
as a carbon tax. Thus, the interdependencies be-  lation of the discount rate more difficult. The effects
tween the different markets and sectors are mod-   of a project on GHG emissions and on many exter-
elled explicitly. The relation to specific technologies   nalities may not be known. Furthermore, there are
and investment projects is weak, and the cost of an   uncertainties with respect to future available abate-
abatement measure must be expressed in terms of   ment technologies and projects, commodity prices,
reduced economic growth, or implicitly calculated   economic growth, and global conditions. The only
in the efficiency losses. With this approach, explicit   way to narrow the range of unknown externalities is
assumptions must be made about market structure  through data collection and research. The best way
and the economic behavior of individual agents. In  to keep abreast of costs, emerging technologies, and
particular, the degree of competition in the sector   global emissions data is to keep an up-to-date list of
contributing the GHG emissions is important to the   projects and abatement efforts.
efficiency of policy measures. For economies in
transition, there are specific problems related to the   Strategies for minimizing national abatement costs
instability of institutions and market structure, as in   are based on assumptions about the global situation,
Eastern Europe.                               international markets, and abatement policies of
other countries, such as economic growth, popula-
Setting a discount rate                       tion growth, oil price development, exchange rates,
In a framework of cost-benefit analyses featuring   interest rates, and future technological options.
abatement costs and benefits, the discount rate   National measures may influence international
could be based on pure time preference, expected   markets and prices. One example is a carbon tax in
growth of per capita income, and the elasticity of the   some countries that reduces demand in these coun-
marginal utility of consumption (see Cline 1992a   tries, but decreases the world market oil price and
and 1992b; Pearce 1991). Here, however, a com-   thereby increases demand in other countries. As-
mon discount rate is only required to compare   sumptions concerning these global parameters
15



should be coordinated between country studies to   projects on environmental externalities are general-
make them comparable and consistent. This would  ly not discussed in any of the studies. An explicit
also require the coordination and harmonization of   documentation of units of measurement is, to a large
baseline scenarios to which the abatement scenarios   extent, missing in the country studies.
are compared.
Range of projects, options, and measures
Review of country situdies                    considered
This section reviews terns of reference for country   The coverage of options to reduce net GHG emis-
studies that are completed, underway, or planned.   sions is one of the strengths of the studies. Most
Ten features of the studies are considered. The   studies consider different technological options to
objective of most of the country studies is to identify  improve energy efficiency, including fuel-switching
policy options to reduce GHG emissions as part of  to gas, oil, or renewable energy sources (including
a national response straLtegy. In ADB (1991 and   agricultural and other waste). Just a few studies
1992) and in UNDP (1992), a regional response   consider afforestation and change in agriculture and
strategy is presented for eight to fourteen Asian   other land-use practices. The transport sector, par-
countries. In some studies there is an additional  ticularly the potential for mass transit, is also in-
focus on cost-effective opportunities, and both abate-   cluded in several studies. In some of the studies of
ment and adaptation measures are considered. The   Asian countries, adaptation measures in agricul-
scope of other studies is limited to a review of  ture, forestry, water management, the residential
existing policies with a view to minimizing con-   sector, and other areas are included. About half the
flicts with climate policy, with th. industrial sector   studies consider policy measures such as taxes,
regulations, or with macroeconomic impacts of   subsidies and direct regulations.
GHG abatement.
Range of economic sectors considered
Methodological approalch                      Most of the major economic sectors are covered only
The main focus is on bottom-up models and cost-  in about two-thirds of the studies. The agriculture
benefit calculations for projects and technological   sector is omitted in a few of the studies. In the Italian
options. In six of the studies, both bottom-up and   study (Contaldi 1992), only industry is considered.
top-down models are co,nsidered. Macroeconomic
models are available largely for developed coun-   Definition of GHG abatement costs
tries only (Denmark, Japan and the Netherlands). In   Few of the studies contain details on how defmi-
the ADB studies for eight Asian countries (ADB    tions of abatement costs were formnulated. In the
1991) and in the Zimbabwe study (Southern Center   bottom-up studies, the common approach is to cal-
for Energy and Environmrent 1992), macroeconom-   culate the investment cost of a project, eventually
ic implications are discussed. In most of the other  including operation and maintenance and fuel costs.
nine studies, the scope is limited to identifying   In the top-down studies, the cost is usually reported
technological options and potential energy savings   as Gross National Product (GNP) loss. In the Brazil-
and GHG emissions reduction, eventually includ-  ian study, the cost is calculated from the consumers'
ing investment costs, operation and maintenance   perspective as net project investment plus the value
costs, and fuel costs. A few of these studies con-   of energy expenses saved through the project (UNEP
struct a cost-efficient curve of abatement projects.   Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment
1992b).
Externalities between projects and economic sec-
tors are accounted for in the top-down studies. In   Discount rate
ADB (1991 and 1992), benefits other than those   Documentation on discount rates is scarce. A dis-
relating to climate change will be accounted for. To   count rate of 12 percent is reported in the Brazilian
some degree, externalities between countries are   study (UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and
included in the ADB studies (ADB 1991), since a   Environment 1992a), and a discount rate of 5 per-
regional strategy is considered. The effects of the   cent is reported in Burg et al. (1992).
16



Uncertainty                                     interdependencies and externalities between sec-
In a fiew studies, uncertainty related to model spec-  tors. In particular, more attention should be paid
ifications and assumptions is handled by comparing  to the inclusion of environmental externalities in
the results of different models and studies. Another  the studies (both within countries and possibly
option considered is the inclusion of more than one  across country borders).
baseline scenario. Besides this, scant attention is   * In the bottom-up analyses, costs should be re-
paid to uncertainty.                             ported in 1992 US dollars per ton of CO2 equiv-
alent. In the top-down analyses, costs should be
Baseline scenarios: assumptions on internation-  reported as a percentage loss of GNP, andin 1992
al markets and the global situation              US dollars. Other reporting units should also be
A business-as-usual baseline scenario is mentioned  standardized and clearly documented.
in many of the studies. The assumptions with re-   * Some country studies need to expand the range of
spect: to fuel price, economic growth, and other  projects, options, policy measures and economic
factors are stated in only a few of the studies.  sectors considered.
The discount rate used should be clearly report-
Realism: political and social constraints        ed. It should be the same as the discount rate
A few studies provide a limited evaluation of polit-  applied for calculating the returns to public in-
ical and social constraints for implementing abate-  vestments in each country. Supplementary cal-
ment measures.                                   culations based on a low and high level could
strengthen the analysis. This low and high rate
Possible improvements in current                 should preferably be the same for all countries.
approaches                                    * Since assumptions about the future are intrinsi-
Based on the review of the terrns of reference and  cally uncertain, two or more baseline scenarios
the completed studies, the following can be stated:  should be considered. Such scenarios could fo-
cus on identifying the possible critical factors
- All studies should be expanded to identify cost-  affecting uncertainty, such as those related to
effective abatement projects and options, given a  future parameter values, technological factors,
national abatement target and the necessary pol-  and valuation issues.
icy measures at the national level.         * The baseline scenarios should be harmonized to
i In the bottom-up models, more effort should go  make the country studies consistent and compa-
into finding an optimal sequence of projects and  rable. In particular the comparison of time
thus a cost-efficient curve accounting for exter-  horizons, economic growth, population growth,
nalities between them. These models should at-    interest rates, and fuel price growth rates
teimpt to account for other positive externalities,  should be relatively easy. All country studies
such as reduced pollution and technological spill-  should include one common set of parameter
overs. Fuel, investment, and operation and main-  values, with additional sets based on national
tenance costs should also be included.        conditions.
* The cost-efficient curves of abatement projects   * More emphasis should be placed on political and
should be comparable between countries. This  social constraints that influence abatement poli-
would allow the identification of project-se-  cy measures. While such constraints should not
quence-minimizing abatement costs across coun-  be viewed as insurmountable, realistic national
tries, which in turn could lead to the development  plans should not include measures that are im-
of joint implementation programs.             possible to implement for political reasons. The
* Top-down analyses based on macroeconomic      studies will be further strengthened if an analysis
models, if available, should be employed to sup-  of the cost-effectiveness of such measures is
plement the bottom-up analyses and account for  included.
17



Costs and
5    Staffing Patterns
The cost of full-fledged country studies will vary   * The UNEP-supported Brazilian study on im-
with the size and complexity of each study. The  pacts had afunding of $50,000, while the UNEP-
United States is offering support to developing  supported impact studies in five countries had a
countries and to transition economies to carry out  funding of approximately $150,000 per country
climate change studies. They are considering fund-  (Peter Usher, UNEP).
ing in the range of $1(00,000 to $500,000 for each   * The budget for the UNDP's fourteen-country
country (Morgenstem 1992). The costs of the coun-  study is presented below. Not included in table 2
try studies financed through multilateral sources  is the additional $1.3 million needed for project
were as follows:                                 execution.
T The ADB study had tlbree main components: estab-   Many country studies have an extremely wide scope
lishment of a comrnon framework for country   and range. Topics studied include assessments in
studies, execution of eight country studies, and   the fields of climatology, agriculture, forestry, wa-
preparation of a regional strategy. The country  ter resources, coastal management, energy, indus-
studies had three components: socioeconomic im-   try, transport, health, and socioeconomic and
pacts, policy options, and national response strate-  institutional policies. Multilateral organizations
gies. The full study had a budget of $1.69 million,   often assign international consultants with econom-
with an average cost of $211,250 per country.  ic and scientific expertise to help with the country
* The UNEP study on sources and sinks for eleven   study in addition to a project coordinator. For exam-
countries cost $6.4 rnillion, with an average cost  ple, the ADB employed one team leader/resource
of $583,361 per country.                    economist, one impacts specialist, and one strategy
Table 2. Indicative budget for UNDP study of 14 countries in Asia
Component                                                     Approximate $
Emissions inventory for 14 countries                             72,000
Emissions rneasurement for 6 countries                          250,000
Cost emissions reduction technology curves for 4 countries      250,000
GHG emission scenarios/impact evaluation for 4 countries        250,000
National response strategy for 14 countries                      65,000
Training programs, expert consultants, study tours, etc.   25% of budget
Source: TJNIP Project Document RAS/92/G31
18



specialist. Even if local teams are supposed to do  share probable impacts and vulnerability to cli-
most of the substantial work, outside specialists are  mate change-work harder to coordinate their
expected to be back-up experts for all of the issues  climate study activities.
covered in the terms of reference.             * Improve interagency coordination and eliminate
overlapping activities such as those apparent in
Several viable initiatives have been undertaken in  the ADB (1991), IPCC (1991), and UNEP (1992)
an effort to obtain better cost-effectiveness and  studies of Southeast Asia.
rationalization in the overall execution of country   * Focus on building local teams with strong con-
studies. Based on the review of the terms of refer-  nections to the relevant policy and decision-
ence and the completed studies, the following rec-  making authorities. Have such teams concentrate
ommendations can be made:                         more on the supply of relevant data, and where
necessary, bring in special expertise to assist in
* Perform in-depth studies of specific elements,  certain analyses.
such as the design of regional climate change   * Make terms of reference more country-specific,
scenarios, as a joint activity between countries  and take into account differences in research
and organizations. This task, under the mandate  capabilities.
of the IPCC, should receive high priority.   * Organize country workshops to set priorities.
* ]Have countries that share important ecological
and socioeconomic characteristics-and thus also
19



The Usefulness of Country Studies
6   for Government Policy-Makers
Country studies are relevant for several reasons:    tion measures, such as introducing drought-resis-
tant species or making coastal zone infrastructure
* They co,ntribute data relevant to the sum of  investments, may be limited.
information that governments are committed to
provide under the FCCC                     All governments want the country studies to meet
* They form a necessary basis for cost-effective   the IPCC's requirement for better information on
and national response strategies           specific sources of emissions. Such information
v They form a basis ifor developing projects eligi-   will again provide crucial inputs to experts working
ble for GEF funding                        on the design of climate models.
v All governments share an interest in improving
the input of data to the IPCC, thereby improving   The WMO has established a long tradition of inter-
the panel's ability to assess the long-term risks of   national cooperation and information exchange
climate change.                            concerning the global climate system. Such ex-
changes are not as well established in other fields of
The degree of interest in information from country  research relevant to the country studies, and may
studies will depend on the extent to which govern-   have to be established through mutual trust. Some
ments feel exposed to the risks of damage andheavy   of the information involved may be sensitive, par-
abatement costs, assessed in chapters 3 and 4.  ticularly data related to energy.
Governments in developed countries that may have   Organizational framework for country
to implement rather expensive measures to reduce   studies
GHG emissions in this decade have a clear interest   The usefulness of country studies to government
in a comprehensive inventory of GHG sources and   policy-makers will, to a large extent, depend on
sinks. At the same tirne, there should be a strong   how findings from the studies are applied, and on
interest in studies of relative abatement costs and   governments' trust in the experts conducting the
"no regret" or low-cost options. Country studies are  studies. In most developed countries, such studies
also necessary for the development of joint imple-   or parts of such studies have been organized through
mentation projects with other countries.     relevant government institutions and research
groups, often with the involvement of interministe-
Governments in developing countries may have a   rial and interagency working groups. By incorpo-
particular interest in the vulnerability of their coun-  rating comments from the research community,
try, because the standard of living is generally low   NGOs, and economic interest groups, the reports
and their capacity to implement large-scale adapta-   are likely to gain credibility and political support.
20



Several developing countries have followed such a   detailed research, consider giving more attention to
review process as part of the preparation for and   the most important and feasible measures and less
participation in the FCCC and the IPCC. In partic-   attention to others, and even omitting some of the
ular, such integrating efforts have been successful   elements in the terms of reference. If the studies are
in Brazil, China, India, Indonesia and Malaysia.    constrained by a limited research capacity, the best
use of available resources is to give priority to the
In countries with limited national government prep-   most important and feasible measures. Further-
aration, international agencies such as the ADB,   more, country studies should be coordinated with
UNDP and UNEP have organized country studies.   national development planning efforts to make the
In these efforts, external consultants often start with   best use of total resources. Thus, some of the rele-
limited experience and too little time for coordina-   vant components of a country study might already
tion with national governments. Often their terms of   be covered by national planning studies. Countries
reference are overly ambitious. In such situations,   with large research resources can carry out detailed
thlere is always a danger that the country studies may   research in all fields of a country study, whereas
fail to connect with national governments, impor-   other countries might need to restrict the detailed
tant decision-makers, and interest groups. Local  research to fewer fields and the most important
consultants may sometimes have been chosen with-   measures. At least for the latter group of countries,
out necessary information about the best available  there is a likely gain from intercountry cooperation
scientific experts. Overall, the country studies do   and from the efficient division of labor on country
not lend themselves to being organized as a set of   studies.
consultancy contracts used for technical and engi-
neering projects carried out by development banks   Agricultural water resource adaptation and coastal
or similar agencies.                           protection efforts are examples of important and
feasible measures. Given that GEF work focuses on
Linking country studies to the FCCC and        the energy, transport, and forestry sectors, country
its machinery                                  studies should put emphasis on the assessment of
Most of the country studies reviewed in this report   policy options likely to be discussed by govern-
were initiated before the FCCC was signed, and in   ments and international agencies during the next
many cases, before it was negotiated. Some of the   two decades. After a decade, most country studies
studies' institutional and organizational weakness-   are likely to be outdated.
es arose because they were planned as a contribu-
tion to a preparatory process for the negotiations by   The study of health risks could be limited as well,
the Secretariat of the Intergovernmental Negotiat-   not because the issue is not important, but because
irig Committee for the FCCC, rather than for the   other factors in the foreseeable future will be more
implementation of the FCCC itself.             important for health than those related to global
climate change.
When carrying out further studies and supplement-
irig those already in process or completed, there is a   One might also consider omitting from national
much better chance that studies could feed directly   studies the appraisal of the potential of reduction of
irkto the preparation of governments' inputs to the   CH4andNO xemissions from agricultural practices.
other Parties to the FCCC. The FCCC Secretariat   Such difficult studies should ideally be initiated as
and the GEF could improve these chances by clar-  joint ventures through the IPCC network. Even
ifying the division of labor between them with   recognizing that CH4 emissions from livestock are
regard to country studies. At the same time, they   substantial, it is highly unlikely that measures to
should link this to the needs of the IPCC, and use the   change feeding practices will be given priority for
expertise of the panel and its working groups.  global environmental reasons. Reduced use of fer-
tilizers may be important for economic and local
Even if country studies should have a general and   environmental reasons, but hardly because of cli-
wide scope, one could, at a later stage of more   mate change.
21



Possible improvements in current              involved in country studies, so that in-depth
approaches                                   studies of particular fields can be carried out
Based on the review of the terms of reference and  more effectively. Through such arrangements,
the completed studies, the following statements can  specialized information may be exchanged for
be made:                                      mutual benefit. The sixth meeting of the Secre-
tariat of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Com-
* Further country studies should be linked directly  mittee for the FCCC gave a mandate to the
to the fact that governments have signed, and  Executive Secretary of the Convention to ex-
intend to ratify, the FCCC.                plore the possibility of organizing a clearing-
* Before giving further support to country studies,  house for the exchange of information and
multinational and bilateral donors should consult    experience on relevant technical and financial
closely with national governments, and link the  cooperation activities, including GHG invento-
studies to a national study board or committee set    ries and country studies.
up by the government.                    * Country studies should take into account the
* Each country study should be an integral part of  need for continuous or regular reassessment of
national capacity building.                findings, and adaptation and integration of new
* One should not preclude the use of international    scientific evidence.
consultants. Preferably, one should choose con-   * The need for continuous exchanges of informa-
sultants with proven experience in policy formia-    tion, for dissemination, and for harmonization of
tion,notjustintechnicalandeconomicassessment  methodology could be met by setting up an
of investment projects.                    Advisory Panel on Climate Change Country
* Efforts should be mrade by governments and  Studies. The FCCC Secretariat, the GEF, IPCC,
donor agencies in cooperation with international  UNDP, UNEP, and important donors should be
institutions working in the field of climate change  represented on the panel.
to achieve cooperation and to divide the work
22



References
Asian Development Bank. "Terms of Reference for National Response Strategy for Global Climate
Change." People's Republic of China, Project Number 1690-PRC, 1992.
Burg, v.d. T. et al. "Costs of Greenhouse Gas Abatement in the Netherlands." Part of UNEP/Ris0 Project:
Greenhouse Gas Abatement Costing Studies, Phase I, Ris0 National Laboratory, R0skilde, 1992.
Cline, William R. The Economics of Global Warming. Washington, D.C.: Institute for International
Economics, 1992a.
"Socially Efficient Abatement of Carbon Emissions," Paper for the CICERO Seminar on the Rio
Convention on Climate Change, the New Regime and the Agenda for Research, November 29-
December 2, Oslo, 1992b.
Contaldi, Mario. "Energy Efficiency and Climate: The Italian Industry Sector." Mimeo, Rev. 1, ENEA,
Ministry of the Environment, Rome, 1992.
Daasvatn, L., K. Flugsrud, H. H0ie, K. Rypdal, and T. Sandmo. Modellfor beregning av nasjonale utslipp
til luft, Statistical Bureau of Norway, Oslo, 1992.
Dolzer, Rudolf. "The Legal Status of the Commitments in the Convention on Climate Change and the
Need for Future Revisions." Paper for the CICERO Seminar on the Rio Convention on Climate
Change, the New Regime and the Agenda for Research, November 29-December 2, Oslo, 1992.
Global Environment Facility. Report by the Chairman to the December 1991 Participants Meeting,
Washington, D.C., 1991.
Graham Associates, S.S. Canada-OECD Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory Transparency Study: Part
I. Study for Environment Canada, 1992.
Houghton, J.T., et al., eds. Climate Change 2-The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific
Assessment. World Meteorological Organization and United Nations Environment Programme,
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University
Press, 1992.
Houghton, J.T. et al., eds. Climate Change-The IPCC Scientific Assessment. World Meteorological
Organization and United Nations Environment Programme, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press, 1990.
Jaques, A.P. "Canada's Greenhouse Gas Emissions Estimate for 1990, Environment Canada, Conservation
and Protection." Draft paper, 1992.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. "Global Climate Change and the Rising Challenge of the
Sea." Report by Working Group III, Response Strategies Working Group, 1992a.
"Preliminary Guidelines for Assessing Impacts of Climate Change." Paper by Working Group II,
1992b.
Report of the Country Study Workshop. September 14-16, Berkeley, California, 1992c.
23



Kristiansen, G0rill. "Biological Effects of Climate Change." Unpublished draft paper, Center for Interna-
tional Climate and Energy Research, Oslo, 1992.
Leggett, Jane A. "National Greenhouse Gas Inventories and other Information to Implement the Framework
Convention on Climate Change." Paper for the CICERO Seminar on the Rio Convention on
Climate Change, the New Regime and the Agenda for Research, November 29-December 2,
Oslo, 1992.
Messner, Sabine and Nebojsa Nakicnovic A Comparative Assessment of Different Options to Reduce
Carbon Dioxide Emissions. Working Paper 92-27, International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis (I]IASA), Laxenburg, 1992.
Mongia, N. et al. "Cost of Reducing Carbon Dioxide Emissions from India, Imperatives for International
Transfer of Resources and Technologies." Energy Policy, December 1991.
Morgenstern, Richard. "Climate Country Studies: Methods and Issues." Paper for the IPCC Workshop on
Country Studies, September 14-16, Berkeley, California, 1992.
Nishioka, Shuzo. "Report by the Fact-Finding Mission on Development of Least Cost Greenhouse Gas
Emission Reduction Plan in Asia, Indonesia." Center for Environmental Research, National
Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan Environmental Agency, 1992.
Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation. "Estimation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and
Sinks." Final Report from OECD Experts Meeting, February 18-21, prepared for the IPCC.
Revised August, 1991a.
Proceedings from Workshop on National Inventories of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks,
December 5-6, Geneva, 199 lb.
Pearce, David. "Internalising Long Term Environmental Costs of Global Warrning and Intergenerational
Fairness," In A Comprehensive Approach to Climate Change, ed. Ted Hanisch. Report from a
Workshop, July 1-3, Center for International Climate and Energy Research, Oslo, 1991.
Qureshi, Ata. "Identifying, Assessing Project Feasibility, and Estimating Cost for Climate Change Studies
in Developing and Transition Economy Countries." Paper to the IPCC Workshop on Country
Studies, September 14-16, Berkeley, California, 1992.
United Nations Development Programme. "Terms of Reference for Development of Least Cost Green-
house Gas Emission Reduction Plan in Asia." (Bangladesh, China, Democratic People's
Republic of Korea, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Mongolia, Pakistan, Philippines,
Republic of Korea, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Viet Nam). Project Number RAS/92/G31, 1992.
United Nations Environment Programme. "Terms of Reference for Country Case Studies on Sources and
Sinks of Greenhouse Gases." (China, Costa Rica, Gambia, Mexico, Morocco, Nigeria, Poland,
Senegal, Tanzania, Uganda and Venezuela). Project Number G/4102-92-01 (PP/3011), 1992a.
"Country Study Report" prepared for the IPCC. Second Draft, November 5, 1992b.
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United Nations Environment Programme Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment. "Green-
house Gas Abatement Costing Studies." Phase I Report, Ris0 National Laboratory, R0skilde,
1992a.
- . "Greenhouse Gas Abatement Costing Studies, Phase 2 Guidelines." Working Paper, Ris0 National
Laboratory, R0skilde, 1992b.
lJ.S. Department of State, Office of Global Change. U.S. Supportfor Country Studies to Address Climate
Change. Washington, D.C. December 1992.
25



Appendix I
Studies, Terms of Reference and Papers Assessed
Asian Development Bank. "Terms of Reference for Regional Study on Global Environmental Issues
Project." Project Number 5463-Regional (Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan,
Philippines, Sri Lanka and Viet Nam), 1991.
"Terms of Reference for National Response Strategy for Global Climate Change." People's
Republic of China. Project Number 1690-PRC, 1992.
Amano, Akihiro. Global Warming and Economic Growth, Modelling Experience in Japan. National
Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan Environmental Agency, 1992.
Burg, v.d. T. et al. Costs of Greenhouse Gas Abatement in the Netherlands. Greenhouse Gas Abatement
Costing Studies, Phase 1, UNEP/Ris0 Project, 1992.
Contaldi, Mario. "E]nergy Efficiency and Climate: The Italian Industry Sector." Mimeo, Rev. 1, ENEA,
Ministry of the Environment, Rome, 1992.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. "Environmental and Socio-Economic Impacts of Climate
Change in East and South East Asia." Report by Working Group II, 1992.
"Global Climate Change and the Rising Challenge of the Sea." Report by Working Group III,
Response Strategies Working Group, 1992a.
Japan Environmental Agency. The Republic of Indonesia, Summary of the Basic Study on Strategic
Response Against Global Warming, Climate Change and their Adverse Effects, 1992.
Jaques, A.P. "Canada's Greenhouse Gas Emissions Estimate for 1990, Environment Canada, Conservation
and Protection." Draft paper, 1992.
Magalhaes, Antonio R. and Michael H. Glantz, eds. "Socioeconomic Impacts of Climate Variations and
Policy Responses in Brazil." Secretariat for Planning and Coordination State of Ceara (SEPLAN)
and Esquel Brazil Foundation for the United Nations Environment Programme, 1992.
Polish Foundation for Energy Efficiency (FEWE). Case study of GHG emissions in Poland. Warsaw, 1992.
Republic of the Marshall Islands. "Vulnerability Assessment To Accelerated Sea Level Rise: Majuro Atoll,
Executive Summary." Mimeo. Government of the RMI in cooperation with the South Pacific
Regional Seas Programme on behalf of the Coastal Zone Management Subgroup of the IPCC,
June 1992.
Norwegian State Pollution Authority (SF1). "Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in Norway-1989, National
Versus Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Estirmation Method (Transparency Study)."
Report 92:29, Oslo, 1992.
Southern Centre for Energy and Environment. "UNEP Greenhouse Gas Abatement Costing Studies Phase
1: Zimbabwe Country Study." For the United Nations Environment Programme/Ris0 Project,
1992.
Tata Energy Research Institute. "UNEP Greenhouse Gas Abatement Costing Studies Phase 1: India
Country Study." For the United Nations Environment Programme/Ris0 Project, 1992.



United Nations Development Programme. "Terms of Reference for Development of Least Cost Green-
house Gas Emission Reduction Plan in Asia." (Bangladesh, China, Democratic People's
Republic of Korea, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Mongolia, Pakistan, Philippines,
Republic of Korea, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Viet Nam). Project Number RAS/92/G31, 1992.
United Nations Environment Programme. "Terms of Reference for Country Case Studies on Sources and
Sinks of Greenhouse Gases." (China, Costa Rica, Gambia, Mexico, Morocco, Nigeria, Poland,
Senegal, Tanzania, Uganda and Venezuela). Project Number G/4102-92-01 (PP/3011), 1992a.
"The Potential Socio-Economic Effects of Climate Change." Three regional assessments (Brazil;
Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand; Viet Nam), 1991.
United Nations Environment Programme Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment. "Greenhouse
Gas Abatement Costing Studies." Phase 1 Report, Ris0 National Laboratory, R0skilde, 1992b.
27



Appendix II
Country Study Summary (froim the UNEP Country Study Report, Second Draft, November 5, 1992)
Country              Study
Algeria              No studies
Argentina            Internal:        Potential participant in impacts and mitigation under
the Swiss Proclim-Ecosphere Greenhouse Gases Reduction
Program (SPREP) through GEF financing. (SPREP is a
quasi-government initiative involving the publicly-funded
Proclim Institute and Ecosphere, a private Swiss company).
Australia           Internal:         Draft cost-benefit study of emissions reduction.
External:        1. Provided partial funding of sea-level rise studies in the
South Pacific through the SPREP (Kiribati study complete).
2. Initiated and is funding the South Pacific Sea-Level and
Climate Monitoring Project (participating countries: Cook
Islands, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Papua New
Guinea, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu and
Western Samoa).
3. Funded by the WMO to assess climate monitoring
capacity in the Pacific and to identify critical impacts issues.
4. Provided training assistance to Commonwealth developing
countries to assist assessments of the effects of climate change
on agriculture.
5. Provided financial assistance to UNEP's Global Environ-
ment Monitoring System to support an Australian sea-level rise
expert for UNEP's Southeast Asian Regional Climate Impacts
Project.
Austria              Internal:        1. Completed inventory of GHG sources and sinks.
2. Completed impacts study.
3. Analysis of emissions reduction technologies and devel-
opment of a national response strategy are in progress.
Bangladesh          Internal:         1. Participating in ADB project to develop regional strategy
to address the effects of climate change (includes country
studies on potential effects; possible policy options to
reduce net emissions and to adapt to climate change; and
national response strategies).
2. Participant country in proposed UNDP/GEF project
on least-cost emissions reduction.
28



3. Possible study on sea-level rise vulnerability to be
undertaken, with assistance from the Netherlands.
Barbados            No studies
Belgium             Internal:         1. Compiled a national emissions and sinks inventory.
2. Performing an optimization exercise of GHG reduction
strategies in conjunction with ETSAP.
3. Funding a number of research projects related to
climate change impacts through the Global Chance
Impulse Programme.
Bolivia             Internal:         Effects study completed.
Brazil              Internal:         1. Completed cooperative study with UNEP on potential
socioeconomic effects of climate change in Brazil.
2. Completed cooperative emissions inventory study with
the United States.
3. Study in progress on GHG emissions inventory and costs
of abatement strategies, coordinated and funded by France
(with possible further funding from UNEP under the coor-
dination of Riso National Laboratory) and carried out by the
Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro.
Brunei              No studies
Bulgaria            Internal:         Preliminary assessment of GHG emissions and sinks
underway.
Burkina Faso        No studies
Burundi             No studies
Canada              Internal:         1. Prepared "National Action Strategy on Global Warming."
2. Developing a national emissions inventory and re-
porting system.
3. Assessment of proposed or implemented emissions
reduction actions underway.
4. Regional climate change effects studies underway.
5. National Report to the Conference of the Parties of
the FCCC was expected by June 1993.
29



6. National study underway on the economic effects of
emissions control measures.
7. Additional related climate change activities have been
undertaken, including: Canada's National Action Strategy;
research monographs; a report for the United Nations Con-
ference on Environment and Development that reviews the
potential impacts of climate change on Canada; a discussion
paper on the use of economic instruments to achieve environ-
mental objectives; initiation of a research program to reduce
the uncertainties associated with climate change; prelimi-
nary carbon budget modelling to assess forest vulnerability
and to facilitate forest management; a series of reports on
the state of Canada's climate; initiation of a series of environ-
nmental programs for citizens; and preparation of regional
climate change reports.
External:        1. Undertaking pilot study on emissions and control
strategies in China.
2. Assisting Mexico in the development of emissions
inventory.
3. Assisting Tanzania and Zimbabwe in a joint study on
emissions and options for emissions reduction.
4. Exploring possibilities for assisting one country with
a transition economy.
Cape Verde           No studies
Chile               Internal:         Assessed potential ecosystem and socioeconomic effects
of climate change on coastal regions.
China                Internal:        1. Participated in UNEP/GEF project on GHG sources
and sinks.
2. Completed a paper assessing the impacts of climate
change on China using Global Circulation Model results.
3. Assistance from the ADB expected for a detailed
effects study.
4. Pilot study on emissions and control strategy underway
with Canada.
5. Participant country in proposed UNDP/GEF project
on least-cost emissions reduction.
30



6. Potential participant in separate GEF Asia region least-
cost emissions reduction project.
Colombia            No studies
Congo               No studies
Costa Rica          Internal:        Participated in UNEP/GEF project on GHG sources and
sinks.
CMte d'Ivoire       Internal:        Study on inventory of GHG emissions sources undertaken,
coordinated, and funded by France.
Cyprus              No studies
Czech and Slovak
Republics           Internal:        Joint project with Austria on possibilities for enhancing
efficiency in the energy sector.
Denmark             Internal:        1. National inventory of sources and sinks of greenhouse
gases completed.
2. National impacts study completed.
3. Action Plan completed for limiting emissions from the
energy and transport sectors, including reduction technolo-
gies and national response strategies.
4. Ongoing national GHG abatement costing study through
UNEP/Ris0 program.
External:        Funding national GHG  abatement costing study in
Zimbabwe through UNEP/Ris0 program.
Dominica            No studies
Ecuador             No studies
Egypt               Internal:        1. Planning to establish a "National Climate Impacts
Assessment and Response Strategies Programme."
2. Possible study on sea-level rise vulnerability to be under-
taken with the Netherlands.
Equatorial
Guinea              No studies
Finland             Internal:        1. Emissions inventory and emissions reduction options
report completed.
31



2. Assessing feasibility of committing to GHG emissions
reduction targets proposed during negotiations for the FCCC.
3. Developed a sustainable forest economy program.
4. Initiated a six-year assessment of climate change (past
and anticipated change, impacts assessment, and emissions
reduction strategies).
External:        Pledged up to $200,000 to UNEP to finance cost-benefit
studies in developing countries or countries in transition.
France               External:        1. Studies in progress (with possible funding from UNEP,
under the coordination of Ris0 National Laboratory) on
emissions inventory and costs of abatement strategies for
Brazil, with Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro.
2. Studies in progress on GHG emissions inventories for
Cote d'Ivoire, Mali and Senegal.
3. Studies in progress (with possible funding from UNEP,
under the coordination of Ris0 National Laboratory) for
continental Southeast Asia, with the Asian Institute of
Technology, Bangkok.
Gambia              Internal:         Draft emissions inventory prepared.
Ext.-mal:        Participant country in UNEP/GEF project on GHG sources
and sinks.
Germany              Internal:        1. Publishes national CO2 emissions data regularly.
2. Conducting a national research program on climate change
effects.
3. Published "Protecting the Earth," a report containing
proposals for reduction targets and national measures to
reduce energy-related emissions of trace gases.
Ghana                Internal:        Undertaking an impacts study in cooperation with the United
Kingdom.
Grenada              No studies
Guatemala            No studies
Honduras             No studies
Iceland              Internal:        1. Completed report on national GHG emissions for 1990.
32



2. Evaluating measures and assessing strategies to limit
and reduce GHG emissions and increase fixation.
India               Internal:         1. Participating in ADB project to develop regional strategy
to address the effects of climate change (includes country
studies on potential effects; national response strategies; and
possible policy options to reduce emissions and adapt to
climate change).
2. Participant country in proposed UNDP/GEF project on
least-cost emissions reduction.
3. Possible impacts study, to be funded by the United
Kingdom, under discussion.
Indonesia            Internal:        1. Completed "National Strategy on the Anticipation of
Climate Change Caused by the Greenhouse Effect."
2. Completed cooperative study with the national planning
agency on potential socioeconomic effects of climate change
in Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand.
3. A study on impacts and response strategies has been
initiated with the support of Japan.
4. Participating in ADB project to develop regional strategy
to address the effects of climate change (includes country
studies on potential effects; national response strategies; and
possible policy options to reduce net emissions and adapt
to climate change).
5. Possible study on sea-level rise vulnerability to be
undertaken with the Netherlands.
6. Participant country in proposed UNDP/GEF project on
least-cost emissions reduction.
7. Possible national GHG abatement costing study through
UNEP/Ris0 program funded by the Netherlands.
8. Signed memorandum of understanding with Norway
on environmental cooperation; will include assessment of
ecostrategies for carbon fixation such as forest management,
development of GHG emissions inventories, and emissions
reduction scenarios.
9. Has been offered assistance by the United Kingdom for
impacts studies.
33



10. Climate change study with the Japan Environmental
Agency planned for fiscal 1992.
Ireland             Internal:        1. Developing GHG emissions inventory.
2. Series of studies on impacts and response strategies
completed.
3. Ongoing evaluation of emissions control measures.
Israel              No studies
Italy               Internal:        Prepared report on energy related CO2 emissions reduction
options for the Commission of European Communities.
Japan               Internal:        1. Completed emissions inventory.
2. Completed impacts assessments.
3. Completing assessments of emissions mitigation
technologies.
Extemal:         1. Initiated and is funding an assessment of climate change
impacts and response strategies in Indonesia.
2. Plans to conduct a study on coastal zone management
planning in South Pacific countries.
3. Participated in and provided financial assistance for
numerous international climate change programs.
Kenya               Internal:        1. Impacts study underway, funded by the United Kingdom's
Overseas Development Administration.
2. Potential participant in impacts and mitigation study
under SPREP through GEF financing.
Korea, DPR          Internal:        Participant country in proposed UNDP/GEF project on
least-cost emissions reduction.
Korea, R            Internal:        Participant country in proposed UNDP/GEF project on
least-cost emissions reduction.
Madagascar          Internal:        Produced preliminary report on national sources of green-
house gases and the impacts of climate change.
Malaysia            Internal:        1. Completed cooperative study with UNEP on potential
socioeconomic effects on climate change in Indonesia,
Malaysia and Thailand.
34



2. Participating in ADB project to develop regional strategy
to address the effects of climate change (includes country
studies on potential effects; national response strategies; and
possible policy options to reduce net emissions and adapt
to climate change).
3. Collecting information on climate research under the
Global Biosphere Program.
Mali                Internal:         Study on inventory of GHG emissions sources undertaken,
coordinated, and funded by France.
Marshall Isl.       Internal:         Assessed the vulnerability of the Majuro Atoll to accelerated
sea-level rise, and evaluated possible response options.
Mauritius            No studies
Mexico               Internal:        1. Participant country in UNEP/GEF project on GHG sources
and sinks.
2. Emissions inventory study with the United States.
3. Emissions inventory project with technical assistance from
Canada.
Mongolia             Internal:        Participant country in proposed UNDP/GEF project on
least-cost emissions reduction.
Morocco              Internal:        Participant country in UNEP/GEF project on sources and
sinks.
Myanmar              Internal:        Participant country in proposed UNDP/GEF project on
least-cost emissions reduction.
Namibia              No studies
Netherlands          Internal:        1. Completed cost-benefit studies on responses to sea-level rise.
2. Expects to complete comprehensive cost-benefit analysis
of all sectors.
3. Completed a cost analysis of technologies to reduce CO2
emissions from the energy sector.
4. Ongoing national GHG abatement costing study through
UNEP/Ris0 program.
External:        Planning to undertake sea-level risk studies in Bangladesh,
Egypt, and possibly Indonesia, in cooperation with those
governments.
35



New Zealand          Internal:        1. Completed sources and sinks inventory.
2. Completed impact studies.
3. Completed response strategy studies.
4. Completed strategy on first steps to tackle CO2 emissions.
Extemal:         1. Assists developing countries with studies through
contributions to SPREP and UNEP.
2. Participated in WMO study to assess climate monitoring
capacity in the Southwest Pacific and to identify critical
impacts issues.
Nigeria              Internal:        1. Participant country in UNEP/GEF study on GHG sources
and sinks.
2. Plans to establish a national task force to develop a
climate impacts assessment and response strategies program,
but requires assistance.
3. Potential participant in impacts and mitigation study
under SPREP through GEF financing.
Norway              Internal:         1. Finalized a study on global climate change (national
inventory of GHG emissions, potential impacts, and policy
strategies including the economic effects of CO2 emissions
and increasing fixation). Considering follow-up analysis.
2. Green Tax Commission has made proposals for economic
incentives to reduce GHG emissions.
External:        Signed memorandum of understanding with Indonesia on
environmental cooperation; will include assessment of
ecostrategies for carbon fixating such as forest management,
development of GHG emissions inventories, and emissions
reduction scenarios.
Pakistan             Internal:        1. Plans to prepare a study on climate change and its
impacts on Pakistan.
2. Participating in ADB project to develop regional strategy
to address the effects of climate change (includes country
studies on potential effects; national response strategies; and
possible policy options to reduce net emissions and adapt
to climate change).
36



3. Participant country in proposed UNDP/GEF project on
least-cost emissions reduction.
Panama               No studies
Philippines         Internal:         1. Participating in ADB project to develop regional strategy
to address the effects of climate change (includes country
studies on potential effects; national response strategies; and
possible policy options to reduce net emissions and adapt to
climate change).
2. Participant country in proposed UNDP/GEF project on
least-cost emissions reduction.
Poland              Internal:         1. Completed two preliminary emissions inventories.
2. Cooperative study in progress with the United States on
emissions inventory and emissions reduction options.
3. Participant country in UNEP/GEF project on GHG sources
and sinks.
4. Several preliminary impacts studies completed or underway.
5. National studies underway on response strategies iD fuel
producing and consuming sectors.
Romania             Internal:         1. Completed several modest studies on impacts, and plans
to continue studies.
2. Completed initial inventory of GHG emissions and
preliminary assessment of policy options for emissions
reductions, financed by the United Kingdom.
Russian Federation    Internal:       Completed preliminary inventory of CO2 and CH4 emissions.
Saint Lucia         No studies
Saudi Arabia         Internal:        1. Emissions inventory underway.
2. Limited studies being developed concerning climate
impacts assessment and response strategies.
Senegal              Internal:        1. Participant country in UNEP/GEF study on GHG sources
and sinks.
2. Study on inventory of GHG emissions sources being
undertaken, coordinated, and funded by France.
37



Seychelles           Internal:        Impacts assessment completed.
South Africa        Internal:         1. South African Global Change Programme established to
coordinate research on global climate change in southern
Africa.
2. Interdepartmental Coordinating Committee for Global
Environmental Change has studied local impacts of global
climate change, and will draft future policy accordingly.
Spain               Intemal:          Preparation of a National Climate Program initiated.
Sri Lanka           Internal:         Participating in ADB project to develop regional strategy to
address the effects of climate change (includes country studies
on potential effects; national response strategies; and possible
policy options to reduce net emissions and adapt to climate
change).
Sweden              Intemal:          1. Completed emissions inventory for 1988-89.
2. Completed emissions inventory for 1990, as well as an
impacts analysis and a preliminary assessment of emissions
reduction measures.
3. Conducting analysis of emissions reduction and associated
costs.
4. Completed a survey on future climate change in the
Nordic region.
Switzerland          Internal:        Preparing a national strategy on measures to stabilize and
reduce GHG emissions from key sectors, including
emissions inventory and impacts assessments.
Extemal:                              1. Financial assistance has been made available to assist
developing countries to address global environmental problems.
2. Contributed 120,000 Swiss francs (approximately $85,000)
in 1991-92 to support IPCC country study activities.
3. Impacts and mitigation studies for developing countries,
with the assistance of SPREP, are under consideration.
Tanzania            intemal:          1. Initiating a collaborative study with Zimbabwe (with
financial assistance from Canada) on emissions, development
strategies, and policy options in Tanzania and Zimbabwe.
2. Participant country in UNEP/GEF project on GHG sources
and sinks.
38



Thailand            Internal:         1. Initiated a national study on emissions control measures and
alternative energy scenarios, and international interaction.
2. Completed cooperative study with UNEP on potential
socioeconomic effects of climate change in Indonesia,
Malaysia and Thailand.
3. Assistance from ADB is expected for a detailed effects study.
4. Participant country in proposed UNDP/GEF project on
least-cost emissions reduction.
Togo                No studies
Tonga               Internal:         Study on effects of sea-level rise completed with technical
and financial assistance from Japan.
Tunisia             Internal:         Preliminary study on sector impacts and response strategies.
Turkey              Internal:         1. Climate change studies underway through National
Climate Coordination Group (NCCG).
2. National reports by two subgroups of NCCG completed.
Tuvalu              Internal:         Preliminary study underway to design and implement
comprehensive climate change study through ASPEI, UNEP,
and SPREP.
Uganda              Internal:         1. Prepared proposal for sector studies on emissions, impacts,
and cost-benefits of response options; project requires
external funding.
2. Participant country in UNEP/GEF project on GHG sources
and sinks.
United Kingdom      Internal:         Produced or commissioned a number of national studies on
emissions, effects, and emissions reduction options and costs.
External:        1. Undertaking impacts studies in cooperation with Kenya,
Ghana, and the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States.
2. Offered assistance to Indonesia and Zimbabwe for
impacts studies.
3. Discussing funding of an impacts study in India with the
World Bank.
4. Discussing with UNEP possible involvement in UNEP/
Ris0 program on emissions abatement costs.
39



5. Funded initial inventory of GHG emissions in Romania.
United States       Intemal:         Produced or supported numerous national studies on emissions,
impacts, emissions reduction options, and costs and benefits of
response strategies to provide the foundation for the U.S.
Climate Action Plan.
External:                            1. Supported numerous cooperative studies in developing
countries and European countries in transition on impacts,
emissions inventories, technology assessments, and emissions
reduction cost assessments.
2. Offered technical support to Brazil, Mexico, and Poland
for development of inventories of GHG sources and sinks,
and additional support to Poland for assessment of technical
options and strategies to limit emissions.
3. Committed to provide $25 million over a two-year period
to support climate change country studies by developing
countries and economies in transition.
Uruguay             Internal:        1. No national studies.
2. Few studies at the sub-regional level on climate change
and socioeconomic impacts.
Venezuela           Intemal:         1. Preliminary inventory of GHG sources and sinks completed.
2. Participant country in UNEP/GEF project on sources and
sinks.
3. Potential participant in impacts and mitigation study
under SPREP, through GEF financing.
Viet Narn           Internal:        1. Study on vulnerability to climate change and sea-level
rise completed through UNEP.
2. Completed cooperative study with UNEP on potential
socioeconomic effects of climate change in Viet Nam.
3. Participating in ADB project to develop regional strategy
to address the effects of climate change (includes country
studies on potential effects; national response strategies; and
possible policy options to reduce net emissions and adapt
to climate change).
4. Participant country in proposed UNDP/GEF project on
least-cost emissions reduction.
40



Yugoslavia          Internal:        Preliminary assessment of GHG emissions and sinks
underway.
Zaire                                No studies
Zimbabwe            Internal:        1. Initiating a collaborative study with Tanzania (with
financial assistance from Canada) on emissions, development
strategies, and policy options in Tanzania and Zimbabwe.
2. Developing proposal for sectoral climate change impacts
assessments.
3. United Kingdom has offered assistance in the preparation
of impacts studies, including cost issues.
4. Denmark has funded national GHG abatement costing
study through UNEP/Ris0 program.
41



Appendix III
Criteria for Review and Assessment of GHG Inventories
Methodology                                   * Discuss and account for the selection of emis-
sions factors when the factors are different from
* Promote the use of a method with disaggregation  those recommended in the terms of reference.
on a level of detail that is necessary for national   * Clarify whether CO2 emissions are based on the
policy-making.                                total amount of carbon in fuel, or the degree of
* Recommend the IPCC methods, but national      oxidation being taken into account.
methodologies are acceptable provided assump-   * Report a complete set of activity data and other
tions are set out and scientifically defensible, and  applied parameters needed for replication.
provided that the reporting categories used are   * Explicitly account for assumptions regarding
consistent with the IPCC methodology.         boundaries.
* Use standard industrial units.              * Present energy data unamnbiguously in TeraJoules
* Differentiate between countries with respect to  (input) for a calendar year.
the importance of different sources and sinks.    * Use the International Energy Agency energy
* In setting a uniit for the emissions factor C02,  balance conventions and definitions for presen-
treat total C as CO2 in mass units per Tera Joule  tation and reporting of the energy data.
(one Tera Joule equals 1012 Joule) of energy   * Present sub-categories of energy use that are
input.                                        necessary for CH4 and NO2 calculations.
* Specify whether the degree of carbon oxidation   * Report energy data for non-commercial energy
and/or sequestration is taken into account. If so,  sources such as biofuels.
use specific, clearly distinguishable factors, al-   * Explain any significant differences between the
lowing for adjustments.                       data sets that are used on a national level, and
* Clearly define industrial process emissions of  those published by the United Nations or the
CO2.                                          OECD/International Energy Agency. If correc-
* Promote regional and domestic studies (mea-   tions to official statistics are made or if unpub-
surements of emissions factors, and so on). Such  lished data are used, account for it clearly.
scientific studies should be published, made in-   * Encourage countries to use both a bottom-up and
temationally available, and referenced in the  a top-down method (such as the IPCC for C02).
report. Emissions factors recommended by the  Account for any differences between the results
IPCC should be used if better documentation is  obtained.
not available.                              * Account for the roles of the estimated sources and
* Establish the role of sources and sinks in the  sinks in the natural cycles of gases.
natural cycles of gases.
* Apply a method that makes it easy to update the   Report formatting requirements
inventory and coimpile time series.
* Help improve the TPCC method based on expe-   * Specify gases to be included (gases with direct
riences from the application of the method.   effect on climate and gases with indirect effect,
including halogenated hydrocarbons not regulat-
Documentation requirements                      ed by the Montreal Protocol (see chapter 2)).
* Reference year and time intervals.
* Specify which methods for estimation of emis-   * Emphasize the requirement for a common set of
sions and sinks are applied. If methods other than  source and sink categories (identical definitions
the recommended IPCC method are applied, the  among countries). Use the source sector split as
emissions inventory should be accompanied by a  identified in the IPCC method (Annex C of
description of the methods used, with discussion  OECD, 1991 a) for reporting of emissions from
of the differences between own method and that  energy combustion. When further detail might be
recommended by the IPCC.                      necessary for industry, International Standard of
* Give references sufficient for a reconstruction of  Industrial Classification categories should be used
the source and sink data.                     as far as possible to report industrial emissions.



* Be explicit when different definitions are used,   * Include a standard summary for overview and
and indicate any important similarities and dis-  comparison.
crepancies.                                 * Report emission factors at the same level of
* When reporting emissions, present units in a full  detail that is applied in the standard recommend-
molecular mass basis in metric units per year (for  ed methodology.
instance, CO2 and not C, NO2 and not N, in Giga   * Provide details on the range of uncertainty and
Joules per year).                             explain how the range was derived.
* Clearly document the calculation method (all
parameters and the time horizon) if gases are
expressed in CO2 equivalents.
43



Appendix IV
Biological Effects of Climalte Change on Natural Ecosystems-Overview of Major International
Research Programs
This appendix presents some major international   series of IGBP reports as well as in its newsletter,
research programs concerned with the biological   Global Change.
effects of climate chlange on ecosystems.3Programs
aimed strictly at environmental monitoring are not   The IGBP's objective is to describe and understand
included.4 The first section deals with programs co-   the interactive physical, chemical, and biological
ordinated by organizations linked to the Interna-   processes that regulate the biosphere, the unique
tional Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU). Then   environment that is provided for life forms, the
activities within the framework of the United Na-   changes that are occurring in this system, and the
tions are described, followed by some programs   manner in which they are influenced by human
based in Europe. The North Atlantic Treaty Orga-   activities.
nization (NATO) Science Program is also briefly
introduced.                                       For practical reasons, the research is based on sev-
eral core projects. The IGBP initially defined a
International Geosphere-Biosphere                 number of research questions, within which the
Programme (IGBE')                                 core projects were developed (IGBP 1990). The
The International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme   core projects are organized into foci, activities, and
(IGBP) is an inter-disciplinary research endeavor   tasks.
being conducted within the framework of ICSU.
Along  with  the  World  Climate  Research   The IGBP is inter-disciplinary and most of its core
Programme (WCRE') and other international re-   projects include some biological research. The Glo-
search efforts, it addresses critical unknowns re-   bal Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems (GCTE)
lated to global environmental change. The IPCC    project, described broadly below, is the most im-
has identified IGBP and WCRP as the two major   portant core project involving biological research.
research programs devoted to shedding light on   Other relevant core projects, which are briefly de-
man's relation to global climate change. The WCRP    scribed here, include:
is concerned with plysical aspects of the climate
system and is thus not included here.             * Joint Global Ocean Flux Studies (JGOFS)
B Biosphere Aspects of the Hydrologic Cycle
The ICSU initiated detailed planning for the IGBP   (BAHC)
in late 1986 and appointed a special committee to    * International Global Atmospheric Chemistry
guide the planning and implementation of the pro-   (IGAC)
gram. To provide for joint planning and coordina-   * Global Ocean Euphotic Zone Study (GOEZS)
tion with bodies of ithe United Nations, an inter-   * Land Ocean Interactions in the Global Coastal
agency coordinating committee has been formed       Zone (LOICZ)
with the participation of UNEP, the United Nations   * Global Analysis, Interpretation, and Modelling
Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization  (GAIM).
(UNESCO), and WMO.
Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems
A secretariat for the IGBP at the Royal Swedish   (GCTE)
Academy of Sciences supports planning and imple-   The information in this section is drawn from the
mentation and provicdes a focal point for commu-   GCTE Operational Plan (IGBP 1992).
nication and coordination. The secretariat publishes
the findings of planning group deliberations in a   The objectives of the GCTE are:
3      This appendix builds on chapter 2 of the Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems/CICERO report entitled, "Biological Effects on
Climate Change-An Introduction to the Field and a Survey of Current Research," by G0rill Kristiansen. The main report, which may be obtained
from CICERO, includes a brief scientific review, research on biological effects in thirteen selected countries, as well as extensive lists of contacts
for each project described.
4      For a survey of mcnitoring programs, see A Survey of Environmental Monitoring and Information Management Programs of
International Organizations, published by the UNEP-HEM office in April 1991 (second edition).



* To predict the effects of changes in climate,  environmental factors, on ecosystem physiology at
atmospheric composition, and land use on terres-  the patch scale (10 to 100 meters), and to investi-
trial ecosystems, including agricultural produc-  gate potential feedback to the atmosphere.
tion and forest systems
* To learn how these effects lead to feedbacks in the   Short-term objectives:
atrnosphere and the physical climate system.
a To assess whether terrestrial ecosystems will
GTC]E's four foci are:                            serve as a source or sink of carbon under elevated
CO2 alone, and in combination with other envi-
1. Ecosystem physiology;                      ronmental changes
2. Change in ecosystem structure;           * To determine, through case studies, how CO2
3. Global change impact on agriculture and for-    enhancement will affect ecosystem productive
estry; and                                  capacity through alterations of such processes as
4. Global change and ecological complexity    plant-pest interactions, nitrogen mineralization,
(proposed).                                 and water-use efficiency.
The first two foci are designed to provide a funda-  Task 1.1.1: Whole-ecosystem experiments by Free
mental understanding of the impacts of global change  Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment (FACE).
on ecosystem function, composition and structure, and
their feedback effects. The third and the proposed   Task 1.1.2: Integrating experiments on ecosystem
fourth foci are designed to examine the more specific  CO2 response.
impacts of global change on systems of great impor-
tance to humans-the production of food and the  Activity 1.2: Changes in bio-geochemistry.
earth's biological diversity and complexity. Focus 3  The overall emphasis of the bio-geochemistry ac-
is, however, beyond the scope of the present report  tivity is the terrestrial regulation of element pools,
and is excluded from the following description. Yet  transformations, gains, and losses as they are al-
Focus 3 is closely related to work on more natural eco-  tered by the components of global change.
systems-its modelling component is closely linked
to the rest of the GCTE modelling through a network   The long-term objective is to determine the inter-
of centers for Long-term Ecosystem Modelling Ac-  active effects of land use, altered atmospheric
tivity (see Focus 2A).                         composition, and climate change on the bio-
geochemical cycles of carbon, nitrogen, and other
Focus 1: Ecosystem physiology                  elements.
The primary aim of Focus 1 is to understand and model
the effect of global change on primary ecosystem pro-  The more immediate objectives are specific to each
cesses, such as the exchange of energy, water, and trace  of the three regions, identified in the following three
gases with the atmosphere, element cycling and stor-  tasks.
age, and biomass accumulation or loss.
Task 1.2.1: Humid tropical forests undergoing
Activity 1.1: Effects of elevated CO2.         land-use change.
This activity recognizes the critical need for infor-  The short-term objective is to determine the effects
mation concerning ecosystem-level interactions be-  of land clearing and agricultural intensification
tween CO2 and other resources, especially nitrogen   on quantities and pathways of carbon and nutrient
and water, and for experiments that explore the suite  loss (and their regulation) in several humid tropi-
of ecosystem feedbacks, including changes in soil  cal regions.
nutrient availability and in grazing by animals.
Task 1.2.2: High latitude systems.
Here the long-term objective is to determine and pre-  The short-term objective is to determiine the inter-
dict the effects of elevated CO2 interacting with other  active effects of increased temperature and changes
45



in nutrient availability on carbon and nutrient pools,  Short-term objectives:
and fluxes across the transition from boreal forest
to tundra.                                    * To quantify, as far as possible, bulk surface
conductance from the major biomes of the earth,
Task 1.2.3: Semi-arid tropical ecosystems.      from data in the literature
The short-term objective is to determine the inter-   * To assess accuracy and spatial representation
active effects of altered precipitation patterns and  on requirements for current and foreseeable mod-
changes in land use (especially grazing and fire fre-  els of bulk surface conductance, to set parame-
quency) on the bio-geochemistry of semi-arid tropi-    ters on land surfaces in GCMs, and to investigate
cal systems along a mcisture gradient.          ecosystem responses to climate or composition
changes
Activity 1.3: Effects of changes in vegetation on   * To develop a patch-scale model of bulk surface
water and energy fluxes.                        conductance based on plant physiological mech-
This is to be conductedjointly with the BAHC. Mod-  anisms and the physics of transfer through the
elling evaporation from. land surfaces in the context  soil-plant-atmosphere continuum, accounting for
of General Circulation Models (GCMs) requires   the responses of bulk surface conductance to
knowledge of the bulk surface conductance for wa-  climate factors (light, vapor pressure deficit, soil
ter vapor transport, which determines the partition-  water availability, and nutrition)
ing of energy into sensible and latent heat. This   * To extend the available data on bulk surface con-
strongly affects continental hydrological cycles, in-  ductance by means of appropriate ground-based
cluding evaporation, exchange between surface and  measurements
groundwater, and surface water runoff. The bulk   * To develop the capability for inferring bulk
surface conductance is determined by both the struc-  surface conductance from remotely sensed data.
ture and the stomatal properties of the vegetative
cover, together with the evaporative properties of  Activity 1.4: Integrating activities.
the soil surface. The vegetation canopy responds   Global change will lead to the simultaneous alter-
readily to changes in climate and to soil water avail-  ation of a number of environmental variables. The
ability. Evaporation from land surfaces can be mod-   whole-system CO2 enrichment studies, the gradi-
elled in soil-vegetation-atmosphere - transfer mod-   ent studies in critical regions, and the water and
els as a sub-model of GCMs only if the bulk surface   energy flux studies to be conducted in Focus 1 are
conductance is taken into account. Knowledge of  designed to provide insights into how global change
bulk surface conductance is also important for the   will affect key ecosystem processes involved in the
water balance of ecosystems and its nutrient and   carbon balance, nutrient dynamics, and hydrologic
carbon fluxes, which in turn feed back to influence   cycling. The final requirement in Focus 1 is to in-
vegetation structure and stomatal conductance. The  tegrate these changes to predict the net effect of
aim of this activity is to quantify bulk surface con-  their simultaneous actions. Task 1.4.1 undertakes
ductance, which combines stomatal regulation and   this integrating effort, while Task 1.4.2 develops a
physical structure of the vegetation to determine ter-  better understanding of terrestrial ecosystems in the
restrial evaporation.                         global carbon cycle.
Task 1.3.1: Bulk surface conductance.         Task 1.4.1: Integrated models of ecosystem physi-
The long-term objective is to develop the capabil-  ology under global change.
ity to predict the effects of vegetation changes on   The long-term objective is to develop and improve
water and energy fluxes between land surfaces and   integrated carbon, nutrient, and water models at the
the atmosphere, particularly the changes in bulk sur-  patch scale to predict how global change will af-
face conductance with season, succession, and   fect the physiology of terrestrial ecosystems in the
long-term C02 increase.                       timeframe of a few decades to a century.
46



Short-term objectives:                        * To predict the impacts of global change on
terrestrial ecosystems in their own right (for
* To develop linked plant-soil models of carbon,  example, independent of feedbacks to the atmo-
nutrient, and water interactions at the patch scale to  sphere). If human societies are to adapt and
operate at time scales ranging from days to decades  perhaps benefit from global change, then we
* To use the models to predict the consequences of  must be better able to predict what will happen
resource changes (CO2, nutrients, water) for car-    to the terrestrial ecosystems on which we de-
bon fluxes and storage in conjunction with CO2  pend. Thus, much of the emphasis of Focus 2
enrichment experiments and gradient studies in the  will be on the development of a nested set of
critical regions identified by the GCTE-semi-arid  impacts models to predict changes in ecosystem
tropics, wet tropics, and tundra/boreal regions  structure at a wide range of scales, from patch to
* To incorporate the multiple-resource patch-scale  landscape to region. In addition, it is essential
models into the development of the patch-scale  that models are developed for all the major
models of change in ecosystem structure and   biomes on earth.
composition described in Activity 2.1.      * To build a dynamic global vegetation model that
will capture the feedback effects that changes in
Task 1.4.2: Carbon pools and fluxes in terrestrial  ecosystem structure and function will have on
ecosystems.                                     further atmospheric changes, and which can be
The objective is to understand and model the emis-  linked to the GCMs that predict future climate.
sions and sequestration of CO2 by terrestrial eco-  At present, the only global models predicting
systems for global carbon models.               vegetation distributions are static and thus not
capable of formiing an interactive component in
Focus 2: Changes in ecosystem structure          GCMs. GCTE aims to produce a mechanistical-
Among the driving forces of global change, the   ly- based dynamic model of global vegetation for
most important for determining the distribution and  incorporation in GCMs.
performance of organisms are:
Activity 2.1: Patch-scale dynamics.
* The range and seasonality of temperature, pre-   A mechanistically-based prediction of the effects
cipitation, and other environmental factors  of global change on structure and composition of
* The intensity and frequency of severe episodic   communities can be achieved only by understand-
events, such as fires and hurricanes        ing processes. Central to this predictive ability will
X For much of the earth, the group of demographic,   be the development of one or more models of patch
economic and social pressures related to human   dynamics, which will be both the nucleus of this
activities.                                 activity and the basis for integrating over large ar-
eas such as landscapes and regions.
These factors, combined with physiological re-
sponses such as sensitivity to high CO29 longevity,   Task 2.1.1: Global key of plant functional types.
and ability to disperse, will determine the future   It will not be feasible to develop models for every
structure of the world's ecosystems.          ecosystem of the globe, nor represent every spe-
cies within those ecosystems. Thus the concept that
The goal of Focus 2 is to model this complex set of  the complexity of nature can be reduced in models
impacts and responses so that the pattern of change   by treating a smaller number of functional types is
in ecosystem composition can be predicted.    central to the work of Focus 2.
The ability to predict changes in ecosystem struc-   The long-term objective is to develop a general clas-
ture and composition is being developed for two   sification system of plant (and eventually animal)
distinct purposes:                            functional types appropriate for predicting the
47



dynamics of change in ecosystem structure due to  (LEMA), a core of modelling groups operating at
the impacts of global change.                 the landscape level, and develop agreed model pro-
tocols to meet GCTE requirements.
Short-term objectives:
Task 2.2.2: Ecosystem dynamics from patch to re-
* T o review the current state of knowledge of the   gion, based on change in land use.
functional type approach on a global scale  The objective is to develop, in collaboration with
* To elucidate the ecological constraints and   Focus 3 and the Human Dimensions of Global En-
trade-offs in morphclogical and physiological  vironmental Change (HDGEC) project, spatially
attributes that define morphological types  explicit models of land-cover change, and to deter-
* T o initiate case studies where a functional type   mine the effects of these land cover changes on eco-
approach can be tested and assessed.        system structure, composition, and function.
Task 2.1.2: Experiments on ecosystem structure and  Activity 23: Regional-to-global models of vegetation
function.                                     change for element cycles and climate feedback.
The objective is to identSify (and, so far as possible,  At present no mechanism exists for incorporating the
quantify) the important mechanisms that link change  feedback of a changing land surface in a dynamic,
in ecosystem function to change in ecosystem struc-  interactive way into global models of the physical
ture, and vice versa.                         climate system or of the bio-geochemical or hydro-
logical cycles. Global vegetation is assumed to be
Task 2.1.3: Patch models of ecosystem dynamics.   static. However, as a result of global change, the
The long-term objective is to develop patch models  earth's distribution of vegetation will change, and this
of ecosystem dynamics for global application, incor-  will affect the climate. The ultimate goal of this ac-
porating mechanistic information on the responses of  tivity is to develop appropriate dynamic models that
plant processes to global c;hange, and the influence of  can be used to calculate direct feedback through
these responses on ecosystem structure. The short-term   changes in surface conductance, albedo, and surface
objective is to develop models of patch dynamics for  roughness, and indirect feedbacks through changes
two study sites based on the approach in Focus 2, and  in bio-geochemical cycles.
on the ecosystem structure and function experiments.
Task 2.3.1: Static models of global vegetation
Activity 2.2: Models frorn patch to region.   change.
The goal of this activity is to build on experimental  The objective is to improve methodologies for di-
and modelling efforts elsewhere in GCTE to develop  rectly scaling up predictions of vegetation distri-
a suite of models, from patch through landscape to  bution from patch to globe.
region. These models will be specifically designed
to understand and predict the impact of global  Task 2.3.2: Dynamic global vegetation model.
change on ecosystems.                         The objective is to develop a dynamic model of
change in global vegetation that can be linked to
Task 2.2.1: Ecosystem dynamics from patch to re-  GCMs.
gion, based on change in climate and atmospheric
composition.                                  Focus 2A: Integrating activities
The long-term objective is to develop a suite of mod-  GCTE's objectives in establishing a network of
els of climate- and atmosphere-driven ecosystem   LEMA centers are to:
dynamics, based on patch models and incorporat-
ing landscape effects, on scales relevant to manage-  * Facilitate collaborative research, particularly in
ment decisions.                                 the development and improvement of models
essential to the GCTE program
The short-term  objective is to establish, via   * Focus the international modelling effort on a
Long-term Ecosystem Modelling Activity centers    coherent and mutually agreed set of objectives
48



* Synthesize GCTE results into a set of robust  tail in 1993 and published in 1994. A draft opera-
models designed to meet GCTE objectives   tional plan was made available at an IGBP confer-
* Provide feedback to experimental efforts as prior-  ence in January 1993 (SAC III, Ensenada, Mexico).
ities for model parameters, investigation of addi-  The following information was drawn from the draft
tional phenomena, and needs for model testing  plan. Activities and tasks, which may later be reor-
infornation arise.                         ganized, are discussed below.
LEMA centers will facilitate the entire GCTE mod-  Activity 4.1: Relationships between ecological com-
elling effort, across all foci.              plexity and ecosystem function.
The aim is to define relationships between species
Focus 3: Global change impact on agriculture and  diversity, complexity, connectivity, and selected pro-
fores fry                                    cesses for a range of major ecosystems. The final
structure of this activity and Activity 4.2 will evolve
As mentioned earlier, this focal area is beyond the  in collaboration with the SCOPE (Scientific Com-
scope of this report.                        mittee on Problems of the Environment) component
of the Diversitas program.
Focus 4: Global change and ecological
complexity (proposed)                        Task 4.1.1 Manipulative experiments on complex-
Complexity is viewed as the suite of species inter-  ity and function.
actions within an ecosystem. It includes the diver-  The objective here is to determine through manipu-
sity of species, their connectivity, and spatial diver-  lative experimentation the effect of changing com-
sity (patchiness). Connectivity, unlike species diver-  plexity on function, and vice versa, for a number of
sity, is considered to change with scale because it  ecosystems.
incorporates such effects as variations in landscape
structure and migration. This focus is therefore de-  Task 4.1.2: Models of complexity and function.
signed to understand and determine the importance  This task aims to construct theoretical models that
of species diversity and ecosystem complexity as  simulate the complexity (diversity and connectiv-
they relate to the dynamic responses of ecosystem  ity) of real ecosystems and relate change in com-
function to environmental change. It is also neces-  plexity to change in function.
sary to consider the reverse response-the influence
of changes in ecosystem function on diversity and  Activity 4.2: Interactive effects of global change on
complexity. These broad considerations are impor-  ecological complexity and on the relationship be-
tant to an overall understanding of climate change  tween complexity and ecosystem function.
and they underlie the missions of such interest  The aim is to examine how the interactive effects of
groups as the World Conservation Union (IUCN,  global change will alter ecological complexity, and
formerly called the International Union for the Con-  how this in turn will lead to changes in function.
servation of Nature and Natural Resources).
Task 42.1: Experimental and observational studies.
A specific issue to be considered is environmental  The objective is to determine by experimentation
change and the vulnerability of species diversity in  and observation the impacts of various kinds and
wildlife reserves. Such reserves are typically on iso-  combinations of global change on ecological com-
lated lands and will be vulnerable to environmental  plexity, and on the relationships between complex-
change because of disrupted migration networks.   ity and ecosystem function.
Global Change and Ecological Complexity was  Task 4.2.2: Modelling impacts of global change on
originally proposed as a separate IGBP core project  complexity and function.
(IGB P 1990) and has only recently been incorpo-  Here the objective is to develop predictive models
rated within GCTE as a proposed Focus 4. The op-  of the complexity-function relationship under con-
erational plan for Focus 4 will be developed in de-  ditions of global change.
49



Task 4.2.3: Complexity and function under global  IGAC, GOEZS, LOICZ, and GAIM. For further
change: feedbacks to further change.         information, consult IGBP Report Number 12
The objective is to determine and quantify whether  (1990).
global change impacts on ecological complexity and
on the relationship between complexity and ecosys-  Joint Global Ocean Flux Studies (JGOFS)
tem function will lead to further global change.  The JGOFS is primarily concerned with assessing
and understanding carbon flows in the ocean and
Activity 4.3: Consequences of global change for the  across its boundaries, both now and in the future.
viability of isolated populations.           "In principle, this would include understanding the
biological effects of climate change in the ocean,
Task 4.3.1: Habitat fragmentation, land-use and land  because there is potential for strong biological feed-
cover change and population viability.       back on oceanic carbon transport. However, due to
Here the objective is to develop, refine and verify  resource constraints, the JGOFS project will con-
models to predict the viability of isolated plant and  centrate on assessing the present carbon fluxes and
animal populations uncler different scenarios. Chang-  their first-order (physical-chemical) changes. It is
ing variables include total population, differing life  quite possible, though, that individual research
histories, and differences in the isolated habitat frag-  projects within JGOFS will address biological re-
ments on which the populations live. An effort would  sponses and feedback as well, and such extensions
be made to explore the role of inter-patch migration  are to be welcomed when they occur." (G.T. Evans,
in maintaining biodiversity in rapidly changing land-  JGOFS Executive Scientist).
scapes.
Biosphere Aspects of the Hydrologic Cycle
Task 4.3.2: Interactive effects of habitat fragmenta-  (BAHC)
tion and climate change.                     The BAHC expresses biological relevance by ex-
The aim is to examine and model the implications  amining how plant communities and ecosystems-
of climate change for rnaintenance of biological di-  in combination with land topography-affect the
versity and connectivity in isolated habitat patches  earth's water cycle.
set in a variety of landscapes.
The sub-objectives are:
Activity 4.4: Complexity, function and global
change: regional and global synthesis.       * To determine the biospheric controls of the hy-
The aim of this activity is to extend this information  drologic cycle through field measurements for the
geographically to build up scenarios of change in    purpose of developing models of the energy and
ecological complexity, and its implications, at re-    water fluxes in the soil-vegetation-atmosphere
gional and global scales.                      system at temporal and spatial scales, ranging
from vegetation patches to GCM grid cells
Task 4.4.1: Identification of areas of functional  * To develop and implement a long-term commit-
sensitivity.                                   ment to observations designed to test the results of
The objectives are twofold:                    global change modelling of the interactions be-
tween the biosphere and the physical earth system
* To develop and projmulgate general methodolo-    in relation to the hydrological cycle.
gies for identifying areas, functional types, and
species most at risk from global change    International Global Atmospheric Chemistry
* To determine and map the regions of the world  (IGAC)
where loss ofecological complexity is most likely to  IGAC was initiated by the IAMAP Commission on
lead to significant changes in ecosystem function.  Atmospheric Chemistry and Global Pollution, and
its science plan was developed by an extensive group
Other IGBP core projects                     of atmospheric scientists at a workshop in 1988. It
This section briefly inrtroduces JGOFS, BAHC,  was later accepted and incorporated as an IGBP core
50



project. While there was a strong perception at the   phase is planned to commence in 1998. Active plan-
workshop that biological interactions with the at-  ning, including the development of models and in-
mosphere would have to be an essential compo-   struments, may be initiated as early as 1994.
nent of the research activities of the IGBP, it was
felt that the biological and ecological community   Global Analysis, Interpretation, and
was not sufficiently well represented to formulate   Modelling (GAIM)
the biological component of the overall research   This proposed core project has been developed into
program. Efforts have therefore been made to es-   a task force supervised directly by the Scientific
tablish close links to biological research by, for in-   Committee of IGBP. GAIM is undertaking a series
stance, arranging joint workshops (see IGBP Re-   of specific tasks and its action plan for 1993-1995
port Number 13).                              will be published shortly as IGBP Report Number
26.
The objectives are:
GAIM's broad objective is to synthesize, with the
* To develop a fundamental understanding of the   aid of models, a fundamental quantitative under-
processes that determine the chemical composi-  standing of the global physical, chemical, and bio-
tion of the atmosphere                     logical interactions in the earth system during the
* To understand the interactions between atmo-   past 100,000 years, and assess possible effects of
spheric chemical composition and biospheric  future natural and/or man-induced changes.
and climatic processes
* To predict the impact of natural and anthropo-   Scientific Committee on Problems of the
genic forcing on the chemical composition of the   Environment (SCOPE)
atmosphere.                                The Scientific Committee on Problems of the En-
vironment (SCOPE) program for 1992-1995 is con-
Global Ocean Euphotic Zone Study (GOEZS)    cemed with global change issues. It consists of four
and Land Ocean Interactions in the Global     elements, all of which interact with a sustainable
Coastal Zone (LOICZ)                          biosphere component:
It is expected that GOEZS and LOICZ will pro-
vide major contributions to our understanding of   * Sustainable development
marine and coastal ecosystems in relation to glo-   * Bio-geochemical cycles
bal change. The objectives of these core projects   * Health and eco-toxicology
are, respectively:                            * Global change and ecosystems.
* To develop a predictive understanding ot the   The global change and ecosystem component in-
basic relationships among the physical, chemi-  cludes four streams of study:
cal, and biological properties of the oceanic
euphotic zone                              * Climate change and coniferous forests and
* To develop a predictive understanding of the  grasslands
effects of changes in climate, land use, and sea   * Ultra-violet B effects on biological systems
level on the global functioning and sustainability   * Ecosystem function of biodiversity
of coastal ecosystems, with emphasis on the   * Dynamics of woody plant-grass systems (to be
interactions between changing conditions on land  launched in 1994).
and sea, and on possible feedback effects on the
physical environments.                     SCOPE's primary function is "to evaluate and as-
sess current knowledge by producing updated re-
A science plan for LOICZ has recently been devel-  ports and books, and by arranging workshops on
oped, and it will be published in the near future as   environmental issues," (Veronique Plocq-Fichelet,
IG]3P Report Number 23. GOEZS still remains a   SCOPE Executive Director). SCOPE collaborates
proposed core project. The main implementation   with other research efforts, for example, SCOPE's
51



synthesis and analysis are being used by GCTE in  will these responses influence atmospheric pro-
the development of its :research program.        jections?
* How will the controls of distribution, abundance,
SCOPE is involved in two specific programs that   and productivity of organisms be altered in the
are relevant for biological effects of climate change:  context of a rapidly changing environment?
the International Sustainable Biosphere Initiative   * What are the effects of ecosystem degradation or
(ISBI) and Diversitas, a joint program involving  eutrophication in the past and present, and how
the International Union of Biological Sciences    can this knowledge guide habitat management
(IUBS-a member organization of ICSU).             and restoration measures?
International Sustainable Biosphere Initiative    Synthesis and modelling. The goal is to develop ap-
(ISBI)                                         proaches for synthesizing information from various
ISBI grew out of the Sustainable Biosphere Initia-   disciplines, at different scales, in order to understand
tive, an ecological research agenda for the 1990s   how the earth system functions. The questions are:
proposed by the Ecological Society of America.
Consequently, ISBI has been adopted by SCOPE.   * What new approaches are available to improve
ISBI's research  focuses on  diversity  and      the linkage of information between various scales
sustainability, sustainability in a changing bio-  of research (for example, ecosystem change mod-
sphere, and human dimensions of sustainability.  els linked with GCMs)?
& What methods (such as remote sensing) can be
The broad research issues of sustainability in a  used to interpret patterns on a broad scale in terms
changing atmosphere are set out below, but only   of processes operating at finer scales?
as examples indicating that new information is   * What new approaches can be used for integrating
needed-from the micro to the regional level-to   information from the level of the individual or-
solve problems related to global change (see      ganism with that of the ecosystem?
Huntley et al. 1991).
IUBS-SCOPE-UNESCO Programme on Ecosys-
Assessing the state of the biosphere. The goal is to  tem Function of Biodiversity-Diversitas
document the present state of the earth's biotic sys-   The goals of Diversitas are to identify scientific is-
tems and the factors controlling the rate and direc-   sues and promote research projects that require in-
tion of change. The following questions should be   ternational cooperation in investigating four areas:
asked:                                         ecosystem function and biodiversity; the origins and
maintenance of biodiversity; monitoring and taking
* How can the status olfthe earth's biotic resources   inventory of biodiversity; and the biodiversity of
be monitored over time?                      wild relatives of cultivated species.
* What are the climatic controls of the growth of
organisms at regionaLl scales, and of interactive   Questions to be asked in these four areas are:
controlling elements such as salinity, pollutants,
and CO 2? How can these be quantified?       * The ecosystem function of biodiversity. This area
will require answers to the following questions:
Responses and feedbacks of biotic systems to      How is system stability and resistance affected by
change. The goal is to develop the information needed  species diversity and how will global change
to assess the responses and feedback of biotic sys-  affect these relationships? What is the role of
tems to global change. Here, the questions are:   biodiversity (species and landscapes) in ecosys-
tem processes (such as nutrient retention,
* What are the responses of organisms and whole   decomposition, and production) including feed-
ecosystems to multiple stress factors, including  backs, over short- and long-term spans and in the
ultra violet-B, enhanced CO2, elevated tempera-  face of global change (climatic change, land-use
ture, climate change, and pollutants, and how  change, and invasions)?
52



This component will be undertaken by SCOPE,   stitute the Antarctic research component of IGBP.5
and will be linked directly to Focus 4 of GCTE.   The committee identified four major interdiscipli-
The operational plan for Focus 4 will rely strong-    nary themes to define and encompass the research
ly on the SCOPE analysis.                          priorities of this Antarctic component:
The origins and maintenance of biodiversity.
The conceptual framework and research hypoth-    * Detection of global change in Antarctica
eses for this theme were identified at the Harvard    * Study of the critical processes linking Antarctica
Forest Workshop. The study of biodiversity at         to the global system
the intra-specific genetic and population levels,   * Extraction of paleo-enviromnental information
including research on speciation and extinction,   * Assessment of ecological effects.
represents an important step for understanding
diversity at higher levels. Also, it is important to    A draft version of the program implementation plan
distinguish clearly between local and global ex-    was finished in March 1992, and the following six
tinctions, and to discern the management issues    Antarctic core projects were identified:6
implied by such distinctions.
* Monitoring and taking inventory of biodiversity.        1. The Antarctic sea-ice zone: interactions and
This task carries formidable problems, including          feedbackwithintheglobalgeosphere-biosphere
technicalproblemsrelatedtoestimating thenum-              system
ber of species and their distribution. These prob-     2. Global paleo-environmental records from
lems are compounded by the worldwide shortage             the Antarctic ice sheet, and from marine and
of trained taxonomists, which is felt especially in       land sediments
the tropical countries where much of the world's       3. The mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet
biodiversity is found. The actual sites for study         and sea level
willbe chosen from (but not limited to) a selected     4. Antarctic stratospheric ozone, tropospheric
number of Biosphere Reserves as identified by             chemistry, and the effect of ultra-violet radi-
UNESCO's Man and the Biosphere (MAB) pro-                 ation on the biosphere
grain.                                                 5. The role of the Antarctic in bio-geochemical
* Biodiversity of wild relatives of cultivated spe-         cycles and exchanges: atmosphere and the
cies. Within the framework of the program, four           ocean
sets ofpriority hypotheses and recommendations         6. Detection and monitoring of global change
have been developed at the genetic, species-to-           in Antarctica.
community, and ecosystems levels to deal with
monitoring and inventory-taking of species di-   In Antarctica, the emphasis is naturally on biota in
versity and of species changes around the world.   the ocean. Although it appears that biology is not a
(Younes 1991 and 1992).                            field of priority in this program, sub-areas of core
projects 1 and 6 were identified as being relevant
The Role of Antarctica In Global Change               to this overview of major international research pro-
The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research    grams on climate change.
(SCAR), an inter-disciplinary ICSU body, has, in
consultation with several interested international   One of eight objectives within core project 1 is to
groups, developed a plan for a regional research    determine the role of Antarctic sea ice in marine
program on the role of Antarctica in global change.   biotic systems. The Antarctic sea ice zone is a key
This work has been closely linked to IGBP through    habitat for marine biota. The biological activity has
an IGBP-SCAR Steering Committee, and will con-    a strong annual cycle with a very productive spring
5       The Intemational Arctic Science Committee (IASC) is the Arctic counterpart of SCAR. The IASC is currently planning a global change
program for the Arctic, corresponding to the SCAR Antauctic program. A planning workshop on a Regional Research Programme in the Arctic on
Global Change was held by the IASC in Reykjavik, Iceland, April 22-25, 1992.
6       At the time of writing, the implementation plan was in draft form not to be cited, quoted, or reproduced. The information above is,
however, given with the approval of Dr. Gunter Weller, the lead author of the document. The detailed plan will be published in the near future.
53



and summer period. Changes in the timing and pe-  the abundance, diversity, and production of animal
riodicity of the cycle as a result of climate and sea  populations comprising ocean ecosystems, and also
ice changes would affect the food chain and marine  by the absence of a focus on the role of zooplank-
living resources. In particular, the presence and dy-  ton in the IGBP. Zooplankton is a critical compo-
namics of sea ice influence the biological habitat  nent in our understanding of bio-geochemical cy-
and distributions of organisms at all trophic levels-  cling. Variations in zooplankton dynamics may af-
the level of plants and animals, and the level of food  fect the biomass of many fish and shellfish stocks.
web dynamics. Sea ice also influences the flux of
carbon from the atmosphere to the deep ocean and  GLOBEC will consist of initiatives undertaken di-
its sequestration there.                      rectly by the international program; by regional and
national programs; and by associations with
To determine the biological role of sea ice, we need to  long-standing programs that are oriented toward the
understand how major chianges in sea ice may affect  GLOBEC mission to develop scientific communi-
physical, chemical, and biological relationships be-  cation links and networks.
tween the atmosphere, the water column, the benthos,
and sediments. Two topics in the Antarctic sea ice zone  The goal of GLOBEC is to understand the effects
system which need to be lprioritized are:     of physical processes on predator-prey interactions
and population dynamics of zooplankton, and their
* The factors controlling population dynamics, life  relation to ocean ecosystems in the context of the
cycles, and survival of the biota           global climate system and anthropogenic change.
* The nature of bio-geochemical cycles of carbon,
nitrogen, phosphorus, and silicon in the sea ice,  The strategy for building the GLOBEC core program
water column, and benthos.                 is oriented toward the goal of investigating global
ocean issues in zooplankton dynamics, the relation
Within core project 6, the sub-area of ecosystem sen-  between zooplankton and primary production, and the
sitivity and indicator species specifically addresses  relation between fish production and zooplankton in
biologically relevant questions. It emphasizes the  the context of understanding the effects of physical
sensitivity of communities in Antarctic ecosystems  processes on population dynamics of zooplankton.
that may be manifested as a response in their physi-
ology, life cycle, productivity, or as an influence on  Man and the Biosphere (MAB)
ecological processes.                         MAB is an international UNESCO research pro-
gram, based on national research initiatives. The
The primary objective of this part of the program   program emphasizes the use of the multi-disciplin-
will be to identify key organisms, biological pro-  ary approach to attain an improved understanding
cesses, and interactions that are most likely to be  of the inter-relationships between ecological and
influenced by changes in the climatic regime of Ant-  social systems. MAB 's general objectives are to fur-
arctic marine and terrestrial ecosystems.     ther research in order to:
Global Ocean Ecosysteim Dynamics (GLOBEC)   * Develop a basis for rational use and preservation
This is a program jointly sponsored by the Scien-    of biospheric resources
tific Committee on Oceanic Research (SCOR, an  * Develop a basis for improving the interaction
interdisciplinary ICSU body); the Intergovernmen-  between man and the environment
tal Oceanographic Comrmission (IOC, a UNESCO   * Predict the consequences of today's actions
commission); and the International Council for the  on tomorrow's world and thereby improve
Exploration of the Sea (ICES, an intergovemmen-  man's ability to effectively manage biospheric
tal organization).                              resources.
GLOBEC is motivated by the need to understand  There are several networks and sub-projects within
how changes in the global environment will affect  the framework of MAB, some of which are relevant
54



to global change. Regarding the more narrow issue  A new research agenda is being formulated to
of the biological effects of climate change, the fol-  address the interaction between soil and the at-
lowing International Tundra Experiment seems to  mosphere. Organizationally it is within the
be the most relevant activity.                  framework of UNESCO and the Tropical Soil
Biology and Fertility Programme of the IUBS.
International Tundra Experiment                 Its aims are to stimulate research in the tropics,
(ITEX)                                          and in particular, on the inadequately under-
Int December 1990, forty-seven researchers from  stood topic of biological processes in the main-
nine countries with interest in polar issues (Canada,  tenance of soil fertility.
Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, the former So-   * Savannah Modelling for Global Change. This is
viet Union, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the  a proposed continuation of the UNESCO/IUBS
United States) participated in a workshop to develop  ten-year project, Responses of Savannahs to
ITEX. The workshop was held after the MAB       Stress and Disturbance, which started in 1983.
Northern Sciences Network recommended that      The project aims at developing an understand-
MAB committees in all countries with expertise in  ing of the way tropical savannahs respond
tundra research should identify experts who could  both to natural and to human stresses and
contribute to, and support, the development of  disturbances.
ITEX. The Northern Sciences Network of the   * The IUBS-SCOPE-UNESCO Programme on
UNESCO-MAB Programme was established in         Ecosystem Function and Biodiversity.
1982 to help stimulate national and international
MAB-type interest in northern regions.        Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC)
ITEX is a long-term Arctic research program. Its   The IPCC is an intergovernmental panel of scientific
objectives are to monitor shifts in Arctic climate   and technical experts assigned to assess the current
and vegetation due to ongoing global change, and   understanding of the scientific aspects of climate
to predict the direction and magnitude of such re-   change. IPCC will exa-mine the environmental, so-
sponses in the Holarctic realm. The project was   cial, and economic impacts of such change and for-
designed to obtain ecological evidence about ex-   mulate response options and strategies for different
pected or ongoing changes in Arctic ecosystems due   outcomes. Strictly speaking, it does not belong within
to global anthropogenic influences.           this context of research program descriptions. How-
ever, the IPCC plays a central role in the overal cli-
Plans are in place to set up large permanent plots   mate research effort. Chapter 1 of this report draws
in selected Alaskan, Canadian, Russian and Scan-   heavily on the results of EPCC-related research.
dinavian tundra ecosystems. Field manipulations
will be constructed to simulate expected climatic   Members of the IPCC were appointed in 1988 by
changes, shelters built to increase tundra tempera-   UNEP and the WMO. Almost 1,000 researchers
tures, and snow fences set up to increase snow   from sixty countries are engaged in IPCC work.
cover. Plant population and response variables in-
cluding phenological traits, morphological traits,   The results of a global assessment by IPCC were
and performance measures will be monitored in   presented in three volumes, each one by a working
control and experimental sites.               group. The volumes that comprise the first IPCC
assessment report (Houghton et al. 1990) are:
UNESCO/MAB and IUBS cooperativ projects
There are three other MAB programs of relevance   * Working group I: "Climate Change-The IPCC
in this context that have been undertaken in coop-  Scientific Assessment"
eration with IUBS:                            * Working group II: "Climate Change-The IPCC
Impact Assessment"
* Soil Fertility and Global Change. This was ini-   * Working group IH: "Climate Change-The IPCC
tiated in 1984 and is now in a transition phase.  Response Strategies."
55



The reports were discussed at the second World  impacts of human activities. The program will spe-
Climate Conference in (Geneva in November 1990.   cifically address the following:
The conference stressed in its statement the spe-
cial need for increased research in general, and the   * The reduction of ozone concentration in the
importance of intensifying the activities of the  stratosphere as a consequence of the release of
WCRP and the IGBP.                              persistent, chlorine-containing molecules, such
as CFCs
To produce an update of the first assessment re-   * The increasing concentrations of some trace gas-
port, the IPCC decided at its fifth session (Geneva,  es and aerosols (such as volatile organic chemi-
March 1991) to focus on the six following tasks:  cals, photo oxidants, nitrogen oxides, and
sulphur-containing molecules) in the troposhere
* Assessment of net GHG emissions (including    that overload the mechanisms for cleaning the
GHG sources and sinks and global warming      atmosphere, in particular, the oxidation path-
potentials).                                  ways, thus enhancing the long-range transport of
* Prediction of the regional distributions of cli-  pollution
mate change and associated impact studies, in-   * The perturbations of bio-geochemical cycles
cluding validation studies. Steps will involve an  through man-made emissions to soil and water
update of regional cl[imate models and an analy-  bodies, direct or through atmospheric deposi-
sis of sensitivity to regional climate change.  tion, enhanced by such other factors as land use.
* Energy and industry related issues.
X Agriculture and forestry related issues.    Consequences for human health and ecosystems are
• Vulnerability to sea-level rise.            included by addressing such problems as the health
* Emission scenarios.                         and ecological effects of ultra-violet irradiation and
the dynamics and vulnerability of ecosystems un-
The publication of the 1992 IPCC supplement   der stress.
(Houghton et al. 1992) completed the short-term
work on these six tasks. Long-term work on the   The research topics are naturally closely related to
same tasks continues.                         major international programs, in particular the
WCRP and IGBP. The present program thus pro-
Commission of the European Community          vides a basis for the European contribution to these
Environment Prograimme                        efforts. In addition, the CEC  Environment
The Commission of the European Community   Programme focuses on topics of specific European
(CEC) Environment Programme (1991-1994) is  interest, particularly climate change impacts.
aimed at contributing to the scientific and techni-
cal basis for the implementation of the European   The component devoted to climate change and cli-
Community's environmental policy. It constitutes   mate impacts involves two objectives:
an extension and expansion of the current Science
and Technology for Environmental Protection pro-   * To understand and predict anthropogenic cli-
gram and the European Programme on Climatol-    mate change, particularly by focusing on region-
ogy and Natural Hazards.                        al change in climate statistics. This would include
simulations of natural climate variability.
The Environment Programme is subdivided into   * To monitor ongoing changes of the global envi-
four areas. The first (presented here) is participa-  ronment and climate system and, with special
tion in global change programs. Since the selec-  emphasis on the European continent and sur-
tion procedure for projects under the different top-  rounding oceans, to monitor all climate related
ics is still underway, details about the subjects to  quantities, including land surface state.
be covered are not available. The goal is to con-
tribute to the understanding of the processes gov-   The broad activities and objectives of the Environ-
erning environmental change, and to assess the   ment Programme are:
56



* To forecast and understand the impacts of the   * Water resources
foreseen climate change on selected sectors of the   * Physical factors, monitoring and prevention (con-
European environment                          nected to instability and erosion of natural slopes)
* To make quantitative assessments of impacts on   * Flood hazards development and testing of theo-
sectors of socioeconomic relevance, such as hu-    retical and instrumental methods for the study,
man settlement and activities, taking account of    forecast and control of floods, and flood hazard
both physical and human factors               assessment
To compile guidelines for risk management and   * Land-use practices favoring or hindering floods.
for the development or rehabilitation of areas
damaged or at risk.                         Global changes in atmospheric chemistry and
biochemical cycles, and their consequences for
Research tasks include the prediction of future sea-  life on earth
level change, estimates of changes in storm surge
risk in Europe from climatic change and sea-level  Stratospheric ozone
rise, and an analysis of potential impacts of sea-level
rise on natural ecosystems and coastal land use   Tropospheric physics and chemistry
within Europe.
Bio-geochemical cycles and ecosystem
An assessment of environmental and land-use im-  dynamics
pacts on European coastal areas will be made by   The objectives are to increase the understanding
conducting case studies on particularly vulnerable  about sources, pathways, and chemical/biological
locations. Two types of case studies may be envis-  transformations of natural and anthropogenic com-
aged. Analog case studies will focus on areas where  pounds, including the processes controlling the cy-
impacts are already being experienced because of  cling and exchanges of these substances in terres-
relative sea-level rise due to land subsidence. The  trial, aquatic, wetland, estuarine and coastal eco-
second type of case study could focus on such ar-  systems. This can be done by:
eas as deltas and coastal plains where an increase
in the rate of sea-level rise would threaten to ex-  * Developing a comprehensive scientific basis for
ceed the natural rates of rejuvenation, leading to deg-  pollution control and habitat protection policies
radation of the natural resource base and endanger-    for terrestrial, aquatic, wetland, estuarine and
ing human habitation.                           coastal ecosystems
* Defining indicators of environmental change and
Bioclimatic shift of crops                      damage (at different ecosystem levels) suitable
Impacts of increasing CO2 and climatic change on  for the analysis and prediction of the effects of
European forests and other natural plant ecosystems.    natural and anthropogenic perturbations
T'his would involve the study of possible changes  * Developing or modifying existing process-based
in productivity, mixture of species, and spatial ex-  models to predict the response of ecosystems to
tent of forests and other natural ecosystems. Exper-    such perturbations.
tise from a range of disciplines across Europe would
be brought together. The purpose is to provide a rig-  The results should ultimately allow recommenda-
oirous methodological foundation for estimating the  tions of normative measures, appropriate manage-
potential effects of CO2 and climatic change, and   ment and protection practices enabling soil fertil-
for evaluating strategies for future management of  ity, water regime, environmental quality, and bio-
thle effort.                                  logical diversity to be preserved and restored.
Sensitivity of European crop yields to increased CO2   Research will emphasize investigations at the eco-
and climatic change                           system or catchment scale, and will address in par-
ticular processes and pathways at transition zones
Factors to consider here are:                 between different ecosystem types (for example,
57



terrestrial-aquatic and land-ocean interfaces). Re-   * Impact of pollutants on biotic processes below
search will be divided into four sub-areas:       ground (decomposition, nitrification/denitrifica-
tion, and other physico-chemical transforma-
1. In the sub-area of bio-geochemical cycles and  tions involving mycorrhiza and soil microflora)
hydrology, research will focus on:           * Acidification neutralizing mechanisms, in par-
* Changes in the carbon cycle (quantification of  ticular the weathering of parent materials, in
uptake by vegetation, allocation into different  order to define critical deposition thresholds.
compartments of ecosystems, and release to
neighboring ecosystemis or to the atmosphere)   4- jodiversit'. Research will focus on
with particular attention to modifications of pri-
mary production and decomposition of organic   * Impacts of abiotic changes on species composi-
matter                                         tion and biological diversity, vegetation struc-
* Changes in the cycles of mineral nutrients, alloca-  tures and spatial distributions, and density and
tion to the different compartments of ecosystems,  successions
and losses to surface water and the atmosphere  * Impact on genetic diversity, in particular in forest
* Changes in ecosystem hydrology (mainly due to  trees, focusing also on the assessment of human
changes in land use), partitioning of precipita-  influences on genetic diversity and on popula-
tion, evapo-transpiration and water use, circula-  tion/ecosystem stability and adaptability.
tion within ecosystems, and effects of changes in
snow cover                                   Cimate Change Experiment (CLIMEX)
* Identification and quantification of sources and   CLIMEX is an international, interdisciplinary re-
pathways of organic and inorganic matter, and of   search project (Germany, the Netherlands, Nor-
selected contaminants, and input-output balanc-   way). Approximately half of its financing comes
es at the land-sea interface                 from the CEC's Environment Programme; the re-
* Mechanisms and rates of processes triggering   mainder comes from participating institutions. Pre-
the fluxes and cycles of natural and anthropogen-   liminary studies are to start shortly, whereas the
ic compounds in the estuary and coastal area, and   intensive experimental phase will start in April
the coupling mechanisms between water col-   1994. The project will focus on ecosystem response
umn, sediment and bicita.                    to climate change, in particular the plant-soil-water
linkages and processes. Plant physiology, soil
2. Plant physiology. Research will focus on:   fauna, nutrient cycling, turnover of organic matter,
soil and soil solution, hydrological flow paths, and
* Tree physiology, in particular the role of hor-  runoff water quality will be investigated. The re-
mones, the partitioning and transport of assimi-  sults will aid in the development of process-oriented
lates, re-mobilization and trarislocation of   models to predict the response of forests and fresh-
nutrients and senescence processes           water bodies in Europe to future changes in climate
* Effects of pollutants and of combination be-   and in atmospheric CO2.
tween pollutants and other environmental stress-
es (such as temperature, drought, and biotic   Two forested headwater catchment ecosystems will
factors) on physiological processes in plants, in   be experimentally enriched with CO2 and the tem-
particular forest trees                      perature of the areas will be raised. The enclosures,
* Effects of abiotic changes (increase of tempera-   which measure 1,200 square meters and 650 square
ture and CO2 levels) on physiological functions   meters and encompass the Rolf, Kim and Egil
(primary and secondary metabolisms), vegeta-   catchments, are at Risdalsheia in southern Norway.
tion phenology, rooting patterns and tree ring   Eight years of background data are available from
thickness.                                  this site, collected as part of the RAIN project
(Reversing Acidification In Norway). Greenhouses
3. Impacts of pollutants on soils and rhizosphere.   will be used to study the impact of the greenhouse
Research will focus oni:                     effect.
58



The objectives of CLIMEX are:                 Impacts of Elevated CO2 Levels, Climate Change
and Air Pollutants on Tree Physiology (ICAT)
* To measure changes in CO2uptake, gas exchange   This is a survey supported by the program COST,
and plant phenology                         which is the French acronym for European Coop-
* To measure changes in forest growth and nutrient  eration in the Field of Scientific and Technical Re-
status                                      search. COST is principally a framework for re-
* To measure changes in ground vegetation and   search and development cooperation. It coordinates
nutrients                                   national research projects and makes it possible for
* To determine change in mineralization of soil  non-European countries to participate in European
organic matter                              Community programs. Activities take the form of
* To determine changes in soil fauna and biologi-  pre-competitive research, basic research, or public
cally mediated processes                    service.
* To measure the effects on runoff water quality
and quantity                                Twenty-four countries participate in COST-the
* To develop a process-oriented model of effects  twelve European Community member states, six of
linking terrestrial and aquatic responses.  the European Free Trade Association countries
(Austria, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden and
The CLIMEX experiment is designed to look at cli-  Switzerland), the Czech and Slovak Republics, Hun-
mate changes alone and at the interaction between   gary, Poland, Turkey and Yugoslavia.
climate changes and acid deposition. The two main
design elements function as follows:          All projects are funded nationally and fall within
one of fourteen defined scientific or technical ar-
* Climate changes alone: Ambient acidprecipitation   eas, including Environment, under which the ICAT
has been collected by the roof in the Kim catchment  survey falls.
since 1984. This has been filtered and cleaned by
ion-exchange, and natural levels of seasalts have   The information below was drawn from a technical
been re-added and then reapplied beneath the roof  annex of the Memorandum of Understanding of
and above the forest canopy by a sprinkling system.  COST Project 614.
This treatment will continue in CLIMEX, aug-
mented by increased levels of atmospheric CO2 and   Natural populations will partially have the ability
increased ambient temperature (by 5°C) by means  to adapt to a relatively fast-changing atmosphere and
of CO2 dosing and by hot air equipment (the kind   altered climatic conditions by eco-typic differentia-
conventionally used in agricultural greenhouses).  tion through selection. However, the significance
As untreated reference for the biological studies, a   of this adaptation depends on the genetic variation
small portion of the Kim catchment will be sec-   within the population and the length of the plant
tioned off to receive clean precipitation but not  life cycle. In plants with a long life cycle, such as
elevated CO2 or temperature.                trees, eco-typic differentiation will be slow and will
* Interaction between climate changes and acid   have hardly any adaptive value. Here the availabil-
deposition: At the Egil catchment, ambient acid  ity of phenotypic plasticity will be the critical fac-
precipitation collected by the roof is simply recy-  tor in the adaptation and survival of the species.
cled beneath the roof without cleaning. For
CLIMEX, levels of atmospheric CO2 will be   The primary aim of ICAT is to coordinate Euro-
increased and ambient temperature raised by   pean research on the impact of the greenhouse
5°C. The adjacent Rolf catchment (no roof, am-   effect and air pollutants, and their combination, on
bient acid deposition) will serve as a reference for  trees in European climates. The specific areas to be
present climatic conditions. At both enclosed   studied are:
catchments, there will be a step change in CO2
and temperature, starting at the beginning of the   * Treefunctioning and adaptation. The objective is
growing season.                               to promote, integrate, and intensify cooperative
59



interdisciplinary research on the impact of a   military dimensions, a third dimension that seeks
combination of elevated CO2 levels. This in-  to encourage interaction between people to consider
cludes an examination of the consequences of an   some of the challenges facing modem society, and
altered climate and a polluted atmosphere, and a   to foster the development of the scientific poten-
look at the effects of these changes on the phys-  tial of allied countries. The NATO  Science
iological functioning and phenotypic plasticity   Programme (Scientific Affairs Division), estab-
of trees. The overall goal is to expand the present  lished in 1958, provides support for activities that
knowledge of the impact of multiple environ-   foster scientific mobility and interchange between
mental stress factors on the biophysics, biochem-   scientists. Research projects are not funded or co-
istry, and physiology of trees.             ordinated within this framework.
Forests. The objective is to assess the role of
forests as a sink for CO2. This will involve   The Science of Global Environmental Change is a
developing a system foir analyzing the forests of   program of the NATO Science Committee. The
the various European relgions in which the effects   program aims to promote research on potential glo-
of combinations of elevated CO2 levels and air  bal change within the earth's environmental sys-
pollutants on forest functioning can be simulat-  tem. Its objective is to describe and understand the
ed, and obtaining data that are essential for the   interactive physical, chemical, and biological pro-
modelling and prediction of the consequences of   cesses that regulate the total earth system. The
the greenhouse effect on forest fitness and com-   program's mission is to advance our capability to
mercial wood production in general.         predict changes in the global environment, in par-
ticular those which result from human impact on
Participating countries in ICAT are Austria, Bel-  the climate. Five thematic areas have been identi-
gium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, the   fied for special consideration:
Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden,
Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.          * The climate system and the hydrological cycle
a Bio-geochemical processes and dynamics
Science of Global Environmental Change        * Ecosystems and global environmental change
(NATO)                                        * Global environmental changes of the past
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)   * Human dimensions of global environmental
has, in addition to its better known political and  change.
60



References
Houghton, J.T., B.A. Collander and S.K. Varney, eds. Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report
to the IPCC Scientific Assessment. World Meteorological Organization, the United Nations
Environment Programme, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, Mass.:
Cambridge University Press, 1992.
Houghton, J.T., G. J. Jenkins and J.J. Ephraums, eds. Climate Change-The IPCC Scientific Assessment.
World Meteorological Organization, the United Nations Environment Programme, Intergovern-
mental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, Mass.: Cambridge University Press, 1990.
Huntley, B.J., E. Ezcurra, E.R. Fuentes, K. Fujii, P.J. Grubb, W. Haber, J.R.E. Harger, M.M. Holland, S.A.
Levin, J. Lubchenco, H.A. Mooney, V. Neronov, I. Noble, H.R. Pulliam, P.S. Ramakrishnan,
P.G. Risser, 0. Sala, J. Sarukhan and W.G. Sombroek. "A Sustainable Biosphere: The Global
Imperative," Ecology International (special issue), Number 20, 1991.
International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme. "The International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme: A
Study of Global Change: The Initial Core Projects." IGBP Report Number 12, 1990.
International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme. "Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems: The Opera-
tional Plan." IGBP Report Number 21, 1992.
Younes, T. "International Union of Biological Sciences-Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environ-
ment-UNESCO International Collaborative Research Programme on Biodiversity." SCOPE
Newsletter, Number 38, November 1991.
61






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Ligos. Ngana                                       P. O. ozII12              ( 3  s r b I  ,
P. 0. Box 12-544                                   P.O. BoXSil               Port-of-Spain,            M_O 3teuIS)
50712   Rusts             CPO Sex403               Riyadh  11421,            Triaidad   atd            I z a t a z a r a
Lurp, Malysi&             Karachi 3, F:m            SN  Aabia                Tobar                     Mascoa
P.O. Bcx2 =               P. O. 3xI SI              P, O Box lOtl            O.PO. Box 61 I
Mui, RepubUl  of          Ua=ba  P1duntAz         FPmtow,  Slbn              Raughkok   10SO1,         B  a I *    a
Maldlv=                                            LaoI                      Thaluod                   H*rzgosvina,
AP4ucdO 6314                                                                 Croll"
oit po"la 12h   5.    h ,Psjma                     Pitm31i                    Sl(l.g oitP Fatla911     S I o v o   j i a
Bamao, Mau                                         Api., Samoa               Lm. Topo                  Mso6deara
CuUlls a eCo rto  Y Vi enna
Diok posle 620            1107                     Caix Posa 109             Bolt posials 343          !oawsatoI C4ods,
NCouakchott,              Asun,cFice    y ,So SU Toi1d,   *I 15al,TUAu                                 Row1 =17
Mauiania                                           Tocm  sd Priniple                                   P.O. BOX 5o
44u"SO                                         P.   407                  A-1400Viml
P.O. Box 253              Naclons Usidas           s/a  M'.ry  of            0603 Utb
Port  Lou Is,             Lin, hu                  hvircuinmt4               Ankar, Turkay              ot, pos  7248
P.O. Box 7WM             PUmniNgl id               6  SIchnavogo             of Zaie
Apartado  Postal          Domestic Airpot            KmX alRelatlons         Povstanzyg
105-39                    Pos  Offi   Lack         Morm     t                St"                       P. O. Sx 319
11541   Mexico,          Box                       P.O.SOx6S6               Kriv  262010,                -ik-Repoudblf
DA.P Maxco                PSsy Ci:y, Metrw          Vcwtori, Maih            Ukmina                    Zambia
Mazils                   Seychsllaa
Room   2211224,           Philppi.-s                                        P. 0. BoX 3490            P.O. Box 4775
Iotal Cadm                         a               Bolts pals 154            Abu Dhebl, Unitd          Hanre, Zhbbab
277012QixEnau             P.O. Box 265             Dakar, Senegal            Aab EnmtsU
Rapublic  of              1)'5SMUYI
;-m*va                    Phlllpplras                                        P.O. sox 932
P.O. Box24               Dur-su-Saiaai,
P.O. Box 49/207           P. 0, Box 1041           mOgpdl.io, Somali         Unit RKpubDo of
UlaaObaa te,              Port  Moresby,           DomoCrlo                 T.nla
idooua                    fpu.a New Guirow          Republic
P.O. Box 7114
Casfcr  ONU,              P.O. Box I               UNDP Moadluca              A KAtl, Republic
Rabt-CoUAb                Wxrw 12, Polad           c/c UND? Nairbi           of Uguo
Rsba, Morocc                                       K  n y a t t a
Box 3233                 In a t r n P t I o i a I  Casil  do Cot
P. 0. lox 4595            Doha,  Sute  of          Conforeca                :1207
mat°                      Qatr                       Care                    11200 Moavidao,
R * p u b I i e  o f                               P.O. Box 3022t            Urusuay
Mozambique                P.O. Box 551             Nairobi, "Aa
Sans 'a                                            4 Tres S      lhwsko
P.M. sox 6U0              Ropublic of Yanr         P. O Be%x 1s5S            Stroet
Y5qot MY rn                                         Celoaabo,  Sri           Tubka   700029
Carazrl Pod Office       LUna                      UzbaiuAn
Pdu   Ras 13232           Sex 143
WiAdhoek, Nainibia        3eoul,  m   Code         P.O. Box 913              A      o 690S5
100-601          -           rtounm,Rspublo        Ca  ,, '4in
P. O. Uoxl 7 10            phiicfl of Ko           of Sudan
YCuibmanda, Nql                                                              2  Phung  Xhao
Strda AUt Villou         Privat lag                3omn
Apartado  Postal          nr. 16                    M b a b a a  .           He Chio h
3260                      Saul 2, P. 0.            Swazla                    Social    R.apubll
M  a na  g u, u a1-701                                                       of Vitt Na
Nuispa                    79361  luchaet,          P&Wl des NaXios
Romani                   CH.1211  Gen              189  F  Stet,
Boilepostal 11207                                  Ia                        N.W.



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Trhe GElF Administrator
1818 H Street, NW
Washington,~ DC 2048$ USA
Telephone: (202) 473-1053
Fa-x: (202) '47'7-0551
United Nations Develo"pment Programme
GF_F/Executive Coordinator
One United Nations Pla;za
NeW York, NY 10017 USA
Telephone: (212) 906-5044
Fax: (21,2) 906-6998
Uinited Niations Environmenit Programme;
GEF Unit/UJNEP
PO Box 30552
*Nairobij Kenya
*Telephone: (254-2)'621-234
*fax: (254-2) 520-825
The World Banik-
.GEE/Operations Coordinationi Di'vi'sio'n
Envir)onment Department
18~18 H Street, NW             .
* Washington, DC 20433. USA
Telephone: (202)Y 473-601 0
Fax: (202) 67Pr0483
Printed on recycled paper~                                                                 ISBN 1.-8841 22-06-X