54325 TRADE WATCH* APRIL 2010 To see the note and data updates visit: http://www.worldbank.org/research/trade/ Authors: Caroline Freund (cfreund@worldbank.org) Matias David Horenstein (mhorenstein@worldbank.org) The World Bank DECRG *TRADE WATCH is a monthly note that follows international trade flows from a global perspective. It contains up-to- date trade data from an array of sources along with an analysis from Caroline Freund and Matias David Horenstein, international trade specialists in the Development Economics Research Group, covering issues such as import and export growth at national, regional and industry levels, exchange rate fluctuations and quantity and price decomposition of trade. The goal of the note is to provide high quality and timely information to World Bank units and stakeholders. The analysis is supported by funding from PREM Trade and the governments of Norway, Sweden and the United Kingdom through the Multidonor Trust Fund for Trade and Development. APRIL TRADE WATCH APRIL TRADE UPDATE ­ GREECE WEIGHS ON EUROPE February stagnates relative to January. Financial woes in Greece are reflected in slow trade growth in Europe. Sectoral evidence is mixed on recovery in the US and Japan. February data little changed from January. Tables 1 and 2 show seasonally adjusted export and import growth, respectively,1 using 8 years of monthly trade data in constant dollars for 50 countries. February data show no substantial change in trade. March data for a handful of countries indicates some improvement. These data continue to highlight three key downside risks to the trade recovery. The first is that restocking is nearly complete and will not contribute to trade growth as it did in mid-late 2009; the second is that growth effects of the global stimulus are waning and we may see trade levels stabilize with little growth, and the third is that financial problems in Europe could spread leading to a decline in trade growth. To reduce volatility in monthly figures, three-month average growth rates by region are shown in Figures 1 and 2.2 The dark bars represent the most recent three-month growth rate, and the lighter bars show the previous three-month growth rate. East Asia and the Pacific show robust growth that has been on track for six months now. Latin America and North America record steady growth. Europe shows a sharp drop in export growth in recent months, as a second round of financial concerns have arisen. Highlighting this effect Greece currently report the weakest trade growth of the sample countries (Figures 3 and 4). South Asia shows strong import growth, largely because of India. (Growth rates of individual countries are shown in Figures 3 and 4.) Trade fell fast and furiously across countries since the onset of the financial crisis in the fall. Figure 5 compares trade growth (month over same month the previous year) in this crisis and in previous downturns (1975, 1982, 1991, and 2001), using monthly data in constant U.S. dollars for a balanced sample of 31 countries that report data from January 1960 through February 2010. Data are matched so that year zero is the lowest point of the contraction. Growth leading up to the crisis was higher and the fall deeper in this episode than in previous downturns. Of special interest, the recovery also appears to be much steeper in this crisis than in previous episodes. The graph shows a V-shaped recovery. Figure 6 shows that trade has been recovering at almost twice the growth rate of the 2002-2008 period and increased almost 20 percent since its lowest point in February 2009. While the recovery is impressive, trade value remains around 30 percent lower than the pre-crisis level and 50 percent lower that what it would has been if the world 1 We converted nominal trade to year's 2000 constant dollars growth and deseaonalized using country- month fixed effects. 2 Africa and the Middle East are not included because there are not enough countries reporting data for credible statistics. 2 APRIL TRADE WATCH economy would have continued to grow at the same rate of the 2002-2008 period. In addition, the figure shows the stagnation of trade in recent months. U.S. and Japanese data, available by industry, provide an indication of where trade is declining/recovering the fastest. Table 3 shows U.S. import growth by broad sector relative to the same quarter of the previous year and recent data for January and February. Similar data for Japan (measured in Yen) are shown in Table 4. 3 In both countries, January (column 7) data show improvement across sectors as compared with Q4 2009, but this is largely due to the sharp decline in trade that occurred in January 2009. The last column shows January-February 2010 relative to January-February 2008, to examine how the pattern of trade now compares with its structure when trade was booming. In the United States, vegetables, food, chemicals, and footwear are now closest to their pre- crisis levels; while metals, wood, minerals, and transportation remain over 20 percent below 2008 levels. In Japan, all sectors remain quite depressed with chemicals, footgear, foodstuffs, and textiles doing relatively better. Thus, the results point to significant improvements from early 2009, but large deficits in important sectors continue to point to potential uncertainty in the recovery. If you wish to receive a monthly Trade Watch, email mhorenstein@worldbank.org with "Trade Watch" in the subject. For previous notes and more trade statistics visit the Trade Watch webpage at http://www.worldbank.org/research/trade/ 3 Aggregate figures for Japan in Table 6 are calculated from Yen values and therefore are different from Tables 1 and 2, which use data in $US. 3 Table 1: Month-to-Month Export Growth (Percentage Change in Constant U.S. Dollars ­ Seasonally Adjusted ­ A to K) 2008 2009 2010 jul aug sep oct nov dec jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec jan feb mar Argentina 30.1 6.6 -1.9 -9.7 -18.0 -15.5 -1.3 8.3 -7.0 12.5 -9.3 7.9 -3.9 -9.4 8.0 6.3 2.7 -2.9 0.2 -5.0 n.a. Australia 7.8 -2.9 2.3 -8.2 -8.1 -8.2 -3.1 1.3 0.1 -7.8 -3.8 3.9 -0.3 3.3 10.8 2.5 -3.4 3.9 4.4 -8.8 n.a. Austria 4.3 -11.8 4.5 -9.5 -18.2 7.8 -13.9 -1.4 0.8 3.2 -1.3 4.6 8.1 -3.9 12.8 -1.1 0.3 -0.1 -11.7 n.a. n.a. Bangladesh 9.3 -10.0 3.0 10.3 5.0 -14.0 16.6 0.5 -0.4 2.7 -5.8 -3.4 -1.6 1.9 -11.2 22.6 0.9 6.6 n.a. n.a. n.a. Belgium 9.2 -10.9 -1.9 -7.5 -17.4 5.3 -10.6 1.2 -4.3 8.0 -5.5 11.3 6.5 -2.5 8.1 -1.4 3.4 1.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. Brazil 0.2 -5.2 7.0 -6.2 -7.9 -8.2 -16.1 0.5 4.1 10.3 -11.3 21.3 -11.3 -4.5 5.5 2.0 0.6 5.8 -4.5 10.8 10.1 Bulgaria 8.3 -12.6 4.6 -15.7 -19.1 4.6 -14.7 4.3 -4.2 -4.3 12.7 0.2 0.5 4.1 10.4 13.8 -7.2 -5.6 -3.8 -4.5 n.a. Canada 16.5 -19.4 1.7 -8.5 -12.5 -5.1 -18.8 6.1 -5.3 1.3 -8.4 8.8 14.7 -11.4 6.9 3.9 -1.8 6.3 -3.0 3.9 n.a. Chile 6.6 -13.6 -9.3 -5.5 -9.1 -9.9 -0.9 1.6 -5.4 14.5 -9.4 18.4 6.4 -8.1 24.0 -18.9 13.3 8.0 -4.7 -3.3 -13.4 China 10.9 -2.3 -0.9 1.2 -12.8 -3.4 -0.9 -17.6 12.8 -1.2 3.9 0.2 9.4 -3.6 9.8 1.6 -1.6 14.2 1.5 -2.7 -7.3 Croatia 24.7 -14.9 0.3 -21.6 6.9 -6.8 -13.2 21.9 -17.3 10.4 -5.0 -4.9 7.7 -4.7 19.9 -9.5 11.5 -9.2 13.9 -25.8 n.a. Cyprus 5.6 -8.2 -22.0 -5.9 20.9 1.3 -25.7 3.5 -15.4 17.7 1.7 -4.2 16.1 -11.7 17.0 1.8 -9.2 11.1 -6.7 -0.6 n.a. Czech Republic 12.6 -24.2 13.0 -14.3 -17.5 2.7 -13.2 -4.4 15.2 -0.8 -7.2 13.3 9.0 -4.1 13.8 -5.6 1.1 -2.5 -0.9 -2.2 n.a. Denmark 12.4 -21.7 7.8 -9.2 -20.1 10.1 -7.2 -2.1 -3.4 5.2 -2.9 9.1 8.8 -14.1 12.9 -3.6 4.9 -5.2 -6.5 -0.9 n.a. Ecuador -4.5 -2.8 -16.2 -15.2 -11.0 -12.0 -7.9 -6.3 14.7 1.7 9.5 7.1 5.2 7.3 -11.7 13.8 -3.7 17.6 -13.8 -2.4 n.a. Egypt -10.0 -13.6 -14.9 -12.6 -5.1 -19.9 14.1 9.6 -13.6 17.4 -6.5 26.0 -13.8 17.0 -13.9 -4.1 6.5 31.6 -20.2 n.a. n.a. Estonia 18.2 -14.4 3.5 -4.1 -29.0 5.7 -15.3 1.7 -5.2 3.5 1.3 20.5 1.7 -9.0 15.7 -11.0 1.0 2.7 -2.8 10.0 n.a. Finland 6.1 -21.2 2.4 -11.3 -20.2 3.3 -15.4 4.3 -7.1 11.1 -13.6 14.0 4.4 -15.6 13.6 29.0 -23.6 -1.2 -2.1 1.3 n.a. France 12.0 -13.0 6.1 -10.4 -12.7 12.7 -15.0 1.3 -2.8 4.6 -0.2 4.7 13.4 -7.3 14.1 -0.4 -4.6 3.5 -3.9 2.4 n.a. Germany 2.4 -12.3 5.4 -7.2 -19.1 5.4 -12.1 -1.8 1.0 -0.2 -3.2 10.7 6.3 -7.2 14.7 1.9 -2.3 2.3 -12.5 3.6 n.a. Greece 3.6 -12.2 19.6 -0.3 -26.3 2.9 -17.0 21.0 -16.9 12.6 11.0 -8.9 6.5 -1.8 10.4 3.6 -13.6 5.2 -9.7 -1.0 n.a. Hong Kong 9.5 -6.7 0.1 11.0 -7.6 -5.9 -4.1 -6.6 -1.4 15.2 -2.0 4.4 -8.2 -0.1 5.7 3.9 4.3 0.3 3.7 0.0 n.a. Hungary 8.3 -13.9 4.9 -12.8 -12.9 -2.4 -8.1 -0.1 6.6 2.1 -4.9 9.3 9.0 -7.0 15.6 3.0 -1.9 -4.5 2.8 -3.4 n.a. Iceland -5.9 -7.1 31.8 -30.2 -21.5 64.5 -60.3 32.7 -2.0 -20.3 23.7 -0.5 12.6 13.3 6.4 -17.9 -3.3 9.3 -22.8 13.8 7.1 India 6.3 -6.9 -14.4 -7.5 -11.1 17.2 -10.7 -4.6 -23.8 15.9 -7.1 21.0 6.2 4.1 -8.3 -0.8 8.0 4.9 -6.6 13.3 n.a. Indonesia -3.5 0.0 -1.2 -12.6 1.0 -14.9 -11.8 -1.9 14.9 0.2 6.5 -2.3 4.0 8.8 -6.7 23.0 -2.4 16.2 -6.7 -2.8 n.a. Ireland 12.9 -8.7 -4.5 1.0 -8.7 4.6 1.1 1.2 -4.9 14.5 -10.3 1.8 1.8 -7.0 16.9 -8.4 -3.8 -4.5 16.3 n.a. n.a. Israel 3.7 -9.5 4.2 -24.4 10.1 -6.9 -10.3 -3.8 12.2 -3.6 10.0 6.5 4.6 0.8 5.0 11.2 -11.4 12.3 -5.5 -9.0 n.a. Italy 14.8 -10.5 8.4 -7.7 -14.5 11.4 -19.1 8.1 -2.7 11.2 -5.9 6.4 14.9 -7.1 27.7 -7.9 3.5 6.6 -13.5 n.a. n.a. Japan 10.8 -7.0 -0.9 1.1 -15.2 -5.2 -9.7 -12.4 -3.5 8.6 8.2 0.9 11.3 -2.5 7.5 6.6 -2.8 5.3 7.1 -5.3 n.a. Jordan -2.3 27.3 -14.6 -0.2 -1.9 -15.3 3.9 -1.3 -19.6 18.3 -14.7 -6.8 -8.8 20.3 -4.8 23.6 -19.9 14.3 12.8 n.a. n.a. Kazakhstan 1.4 17.8 -32.6 9.3 -32.8 -9.7 -29.1 9.5 -9.2 -0.8 4.2 7.6 20.0 17.6 -18.9 14.9 -15.3 38.5 -13.5 2.4 n.a. Korea, Republic of 14.6 -10.6 -0.2 -4.0 -21.6 -2.8 -14.8 22.7 -2.7 13.4 -10.9 14.9 4.5 -9.8 14.4 -4.0 -0.9 8.3 -7.1 10.6 1.5 Average 7.9 -8.7 -0.7 -7.5 -12.8 -2.5 -9.8 3.4 -2.2 4.5 -0.6 5.9 6.2 -1.9 8.2 2.7 -1.7 4.0 -3.0 0.1 4.8 Balanced Average 7.9 -9.5 0.4 -8.4 -13.2 -1.7 -11.1 3.5 -1.8 3.1 -0.4 6.9 6.0 -2.5 8.7 3.0 -1.5 3.2 -2.5 0.1 - Source: Datastream and International Financial Statistics. Note: Data reported in national currency is converted to current U.S. dollars using average monthly nominal exchange rates. Series are deflated using the U.S. CPI index and deseasoned using country speciffic time dumies. n.a. indicates not available. APRIL TRADE WATCH Table 1: Month-to-Month Export Growth Continued (Percentage Change in Constant U.S. Dollars ­ Seasonally Adjusted ­ L to Z) 2008 2009 2010 jul aug sep oct nov dec jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec jan feb mar Latvia 15.1 -11.2 12.1 -16.5 -19.4 5.7 -13.3 -4.1 0.1 -1.7 0.1 9.5 -1.4 4.8 27.1 -3.5 -3.7 -3.1 -12.0 6.2 n.a. Lithuania 9.2 -14.3 -1.7 -15.5 -12.1 0.4 -15.3 -2.5 -10.7 4.6 -4.1 12.7 4.5 -0.3 9.2 -1.8 1.1 8.0 -18.6 11.2 n.a. Luxembourg 8.6 -11.0 -0.2 -12.6 -23.9 7.7 -15.2 3.4 2.6 -1.9 -1.1 7.0 11.9 -4.0 41.0 -20.3 -4.2 5.1 -12.9 n.a. n.a. Malaysia 8.5 -11.5 0.9 -15.3 1.2 -12.0 -11.8 9.8 -11.9 3.6 4.6 4.4 5.9 -3.5 -1.5 19.2 -3.5 5.4 4.0 -5.6 n.a. Malta 8.7 -15.4 8.5 1.2 -25.7 14.6 -21.8 -3.6 14.2 4.6 -8.0 8.3 16.7 -10.2 8.0 5.4 -12.3 -7.8 15.3 13.1 n.a. Mexico 8.0 -13.6 2.7 -11.2 -7.8 -4.0 -10.9 1.5 6.2 -2.5 -6.6 13.5 -3.3 0.3 11.9 -3.6 8.9 5.9 -8.2 5.7 n.a. Netherlands 8.5 -12.7 0.2 -5.1 -17.5 3.7 -9.3 -0.8 -5.2 5.2 -1.6 5.5 10.5 -6.9 9.9 2.0 -1.9 -1.2 -2.5 2.6 n.a. New Zealand 2.4 -1.1 -14.6 7.7 -13.3 2.4 -7.9 -7.9 5.5 5.1 -0.2 1.8 5.0 -5.3 7.3 5.0 0.7 7.0 7.2 -15.8 n.a. Norway 3.3 -11.6 -10.6 -8.1 -9.0 -6.9 -11.8 8.1 -3.3 -10.0 0.1 9.7 6.1 -5.5 5.6 4.4 4.0 -6.9 1.0 3.1 n.a. Pakistan 15.1 -27.3 11.1 -2.2 10.1 -25.8 12.9 -4.6 -4.3 3.3 6.2 -8.6 15.0 -8.5 4.8 12.4 0.9 -5.9 13.1 -6.6 7.9 Peru 2.6 3.5 -3.5 -12.5 -6.8 -23.9 1.1 13.8 0.6 -1.7 9.1 -4.1 1.4 5.5 10.8 -0.9 12.8 -8.9 -0.3 n.a. n.a. Philippines -2.4 -2.4 -2.5 -10.0 -5.1 -23.2 -1.0 1.0 5.7 6.3 4.7 5.9 -2.6 2.8 0.8 0.3 6.1 -10.7 13.2 1.3 n.a. Poland 10.8 -16.4 3.7 -12.2 -16.0 -3.9 -2.9 1.3 4.3 2.8 -1.1 4.2 8.3 -6.2 14.7 -0.7 0.5 -8.7 0.6 7.7 n.a. Portugal 12.7 -6.4 -2.7 -9.4 -11.7 5.5 -15.5 -1.7 0.6 5.2 -1.0 8.9 11.6 1.9 7.2 1.6 0.7 1.1 -10.4 0.9 n.a. Romania 5.3 -12.0 3.2 4.1 -26.9 -3.6 -7.2 -2.7 15.4 -0.9 2.2 8.5 7.2 -8.1 15.9 5.8 -1.9 -3.4 -3.3 -4.6 n.a. Russian Federation 5.3 -7.8 2.1 -12.0 -21.0 -13.4 -16.2 -1.3 -2.4 4.3 7.2 9.2 5.9 -1.4 11.2 3.7 1.1 2.5 2.6 5.3 n.a. Singapore 8.6 -13.7 3.0 -14.0 -10.3 -9.2 -10.4 11.7 -5.7 8.1 -3.1 5.3 9.6 -4.5 4.9 0.9 3.9 2.7 0.9 -2.2 n.a. Slovakia 2.8 -11.6 5.6 -5.5 -18.1 -3.8 -11.2 2.4 5.2 6.5 -13.1 8.3 0.8 8.6 10.9 7.0 -4.0 -3.8 -6.0 3.0 n.a. Slovenia 6.9 -7.2 4.6 -7.8 -16.4 -0.2 -7.9 2.0 -3.7 4.6 2.0 6.8 0.9 1.4 10.5 1.6 2.3 -3.2 -7.1 -0.6 n.a. South Africa 10.0 -1.6 4.9 -16.3 -19.9 -14.4 -8.7 13.1 9.6 -7.8 0.6 9.8 4.8 -6.4 29.2 -10.9 3.4 -4.7 -2.7 -5.0 n.a. Spain 21.2 -10.5 11.2 -17.3 -17.5 8.9 -14.3 3.2 2.9 6.9 -5.6 10.3 12.3 -5.5 14.2 -0.4 -5.2 3.8 -7.5 n.a. n.a. Sri Lanka 21.0 -14.5 -6.3 9.0 8.2 -17.5 -3.3 -0.8 10.3 -1.2 3.6 -3.3 7.8 4.2 -12.1 18.8 4.3 -4.6 n.a. n.a. n.a. Sweden 12.0 -21.1 3.3 -9.8 -19.5 -0.6 -9.5 1.5 -3.9 2.6 -1.5 15.1 2.1 -0.3 9.0 -5.4 0.0 2.6 -3.6 -1.6 n.a. Switzerland 9.9 -11.8 -0.3 -3.3 -11.6 0.3 2.3 -5.4 -5.3 15.6 -11.9 4.6 11.8 -1.5 5.1 0.0 0.1 1.8 0.1 -4.3 n.a. Taiwan, Province of China -8.3 10.2 -12.6 -9.3 -14.7 -16.3 -2.0 14.0 0.0 -2.1 9.6 5.8 0.7 11.0 1.0 -1.9 3.6 0.6 17.9 -11.0 15.6 Thailand 5.4 -11.3 0.4 -5.3 -20.0 5.5 -4.9 10.2 -14.0 5.1 -0.9 5.5 6.5 -2.7 12.1 -0.5 -5.6 12.0 -1.4 4.2 n.a. Turkey 6.8 -4.3 6.5 -25.4 -2.7 -18.1 15.0 6.1 -20.9 -1.2 -6.1 15.4 9.2 -6.2 -1.2 16.8 -13.1 12.0 -8.7 5.4 n.a. Ukraine 9.4 -9.2 -2.5 -13.9 -35.5 4.9 -20.7 4.1 3.9 -3.3 1.0 -1.1 7.9 1.9 13.8 9.5 -3.9 -1.5 -8.9 6.7 n.a. United Kingdom 8.6 -14.8 3.7 -6.9 -22.4 8.0 -13.5 1.1 -7.3 9.1 -7.0 14.1 8.0 -7.5 12.0 -1.2 0.4 3.7 -13.9 n.a. n.a. United States 7.0 -5.8 -6.7 -1.5 -7.2 -4.9 -7.3 0.4 -5.6 0.7 0.8 1.9 8.9 -6.3 6.9 2.8 -2.1 7.0 -1.0 -1.0 n.a. Uruguay 7.6 -15.3 -17.9 20.8 -12.7 -15.5 2.1 7.8 -10.9 14.2 23.6 -8.1 7.4 -8.0 -6.7 7.8 -9.3 11.6 -6.4 n.a. n.a. Venezuela -1.5 22.3 -36.1 -11.6 -20.6 -27.2 -18.0 -6.1 -3.9 36.2 8.2 -21.7 43.8 3.3 -8.0 -2.9 -22.3 32.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. Viet Nam 12.8 -6.2 -12.2 1.9 -11.8 15.4 -21.3 51.4 -15.7 -20.4 4.2 3.1 1.4 -9.0 0.3 15.9 -3.9 14.9 -5.5 -8.5 16.6 Average 7.9 -8.7 -0.7 -7.5 -12.8 -2.5 -9.8 3.4 -2.2 4.5 -0.6 5.9 6.2 -1.9 8.2 2.7 -1.7 4.0 -3.0 0.1 4.8 Balanced Average 7.9 -9.5 0.4 -8.4 -13.2 -1.7 -11.1 3.5 -1.8 3.1 -0.4 6.9 6.0 -2.5 8.7 3.0 -1.5 3.2 -2.5 0.1 - Source: Datastream and International Financial Statistics. Note: Data reported in national currency is converted to current U.S. dollars using average monthly nominal exchange rates. Series are deflated using the U.S. CPI index and deseasoned using country speciffic time dumies. n.a. indicates not available. 5 APRIL TRADE WATCH Table 2: Month-to-Month Import Growth (Percentage Change in Constant U.S. Dollars ­ Seasonally Adjusted ­ A to K) 2008 2009 2010 jul aug sep oct nov dec jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec jan feb mar Argentina 13.5 -17.4 10.0 -8.5 -15.2 -7.0 -17.0 4.8 -5.5 -1.6 -16.4 37.3 -3.6 -12.6 19.3 -6.1 1.9 7.6 -7.6 16.6 n.a. Australia 12.7 -21.3 11.0 -19.0 -4.7 5.2 -12.5 1.3 -4.5 6.3 -10.4 10.6 7.6 -8.1 21.5 0.8 0.6 4.0 -7.1 0.1 n.a. Austria 2.3 -14.4 2.4 -2.3 -17.7 8.2 -16.4 -0.1 -0.9 7.7 -7.5 6.2 6.8 -4.6 13.9 -2.9 -1.6 3.6 -13.2 n.a. n.a. Bangladesh 10.4 8.6 -2.7 -2.3 -5.1 -16.1 32.8 -8.9 -8.0 -2.2 -9.0 -19.3 26.1 -1.7 7.7 12.5 -3.9 15.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. Belgium 11.1 -14.7 1.5 -7.9 -19.2 2.7 -9.4 -3.1 -2.6 4.3 -5.1 9.8 7.5 -5.0 12.5 -0.9 -3.4 4.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. Brazil -2.4 -0.8 6.3 -4.4 -16.7 -0.4 -13.1 -16.0 9.3 -5.5 0.9 10.0 4.4 -7.4 23.3 -3.4 -0.1 13.3 -9.2 11.3 8.8 Bulgaria -1.0 -13.8 5.6 -10.3 -24.3 -4.6 -11.8 6.6 1.0 -4.3 -1.5 1.6 -2.4 1.9 9.3 0.6 -10.7 -2.2 -0.6 -3.9 n.a. Canada 13.3 -21.0 8.1 -7.6 -9.9 2.6 -15.8 1.9 -9.0 6.6 -9.2 8.4 16.8 -10.4 6.5 -0.2 1.2 7.0 -6.3 2.5 n.a. Chile 9.9 -5.6 2.2 -3.9 -23.6 11.8 -33.5 7.1 -13.6 15.8 -23.0 15.1 20.7 -17.5 5.7 11.6 7.0 8.8 -17.4 8.9 -1.5 China 9.1 -4.6 -2.8 2.3 -27.2 -4.0 -14.3 25.6 -6.7 6.6 9.4 6.8 7.7 -7.5 12.9 -1.0 -0.4 17.5 -0.7 0.4 11.2 Croatia 3.0 -3.9 6.1 -17.3 -10.0 5.0 -9.7 -7.0 0.4 2.2 -11.6 9.7 -1.6 1.8 16.9 -6.2 3.4 -6.3 2.1 -18.2 n.a. Cyprus 27.2 -17.7 2.9 -15.3 -10.4 -3.8 -3.8 -0.4 -5.4 -9.0 11.9 -0.8 3.5 3.3 10.3 -9.6 -0.6 -1.2 7.5 -6.4 n.a. Czech Republic 8.9 -21.1 15.7 -13.3 -17.9 -1.0 -7.2 -7.5 6.3 -0.3 -6.0 10.9 6.6 -2.0 17.7 -11.0 2.7 -5.1 5.0 -2.1 n.a. Denmark 6.6 -16.7 6.2 -8.4 -16.3 7.5 -4.4 -9.4 -8.5 5.2 -6.6 7.5 4.6 -2.2 7.0 2.2 -5.7 -2.5 -1.3 -3.6 n.a. Ecuador -5.7 2.7 12.3 -5.2 -14.7 9.5 -19.1 -4.9 -6.6 -8.0 4.0 -4.7 2.5 0.3 16.2 -6.8 4.0 20.0 -15.6 6.3 n.a. Egypt 10.4 2.8 -7.0 5.5 -15.4 -21.1 8.3 7.1 -16.5 4.1 -1.2 5.3 22.6 1.4 -17.1 20.9 -22.0 20.7 1.0 n.a. n.a. Estonia 17.5 -19.9 4.8 -9.1 -20.0 4.6 -19.7 -6.5 -4.6 -1.5 -3.6 19.8 4.0 -2.8 7.4 -10.9 7.7 2.6 -9.0 0.8 n.a. Finland 15.4 -19.7 6.5 -16.1 -16.5 3.0 -16.0 -0.8 -1.7 -3.1 -1.6 5.8 5.7 -4.7 21.7 -12.8 4.1 -4.9 -5.9 -0.9 n.a. France 8.3 -13.2 4.6 -7.7 -15.5 5.0 -13.0 1.1 -3.2 4.7 -4.2 10.1 2.6 -1.9 9.2 1.4 -0.1 1.1 -9.3 1.5 n.a. Germany 11.6 -13.6 3.4 -9.8 -14.4 4.5 -7.3 -3.7 -1.0 -2.7 -3.0 8.5 4.6 -3.0 15.1 -3.4 -9.7 3.9 0.1 -1.8 n.a. Greece -0.3 -8.1 -10.0 -4.9 -28.7 -1.1 -2.7 15.3 -20.5 -2.8 2.1 27.9 -7.8 -5.3 0.8 -7.7 6.6 -10.4 -4.6 6.6 n.a. Hong Kong 8.1 -7.8 0.0 12.0 -10.4 -8.6 -5.9 1.2 -8.0 14.6 -2.4 6.7 -3.7 0.6 7.0 1.7 3.6 1.0 8.7 -9.8 n.a. Hungary 10.5 -17.7 7.4 -14.9 -12.7 -3.6 -3.8 -11.9 6.5 -2.8 -2.3 14.8 2.5 -4.9 19.7 -3.0 1.4 -9.1 7.7 -5.7 n.a. Iceland 47.5 -31.9 6.6 -30.4 -3.9 -7.7 9.7 -9.0 -34.6 16.5 -9.8 4.4 22.1 -11.1 23.6 -15.9 22.2 -12.5 2.2 -10.1 n.a. India 12.4 10.6 -8.9 -17.6 -3.6 -14.4 -7.4 -9.7 -16.0 12.0 -10.0 26.5 0.7 17.7 -7.4 1.7 7.5 8.4 0.8 7.9 n.a. Indonesia 3.6 -8.2 -5.3 0.0 -15.4 -14.8 -9.8 -9.7 5.5 3.9 13.0 4.3 7.5 7.2 -9.5 14.7 -7.8 15.5 -2.9 0.8 n.a. Ireland 8.9 -20.1 2.1 -9.3 -14.0 2.8 -9.7 7.7 -0.8 -9.6 7.3 2.0 -2.6 -5.8 9.7 -8.9 4.0 -3.2 -10.2 n.a. n.a. Israel 4.6 -9.7 1.9 -16.3 0.9 -20.6 -8.5 -5.3 7.4 -2.7 -8.4 18.8 5.3 4.8 -4.8 -3.5 17.4 -7.6 4.2 -8.1 n.a. Italy 13.8 -6.6 -4.9 -6.1 -12.6 3.0 -16.4 0.6 -3.6 9.0 -9.6 14.5 5.3 1.7 10.7 -0.6 0.3 2.1 -9.8 n.a. n.a. Japan 6.0 -8.6 6.8 -4.5 -14.5 0.4 -11.6 -14.7 -3.1 3.9 -5.2 7.6 9.8 -5.0 13.3 -7.1 3.9 5.5 -0.4 3.2 n.a. Jordan -7.7 -11.4 7.2 -6.9 2.3 -24.5 16.5 -27.9 17.2 -3.3 -1.4 11.6 4.4 -9.0 -2.9 8.1 9.8 -11.1 8.1 n.a. n.a. Kazakhstan 17.8 -10.5 2.5 -7.0 -11.5 24.2 -31.6 10.1 -0.2 -4.0 -9.7 4.3 4.9 -4.0 15.8 -9.1 -2.4 24.4 -32.9 13.4 n.a. Korea, Republic of 11.5 -4.2 -1.9 -13.0 -19.0 -7.9 -1.9 -6.1 -6.3 9.3 -4.7 10.8 6.5 0.1 8.6 -3.1 -3.4 10.7 0.1 2.3 2.4 Average 8.1 -9.9 3.2 -9.3 -14.9 -1.6 -9.4 -0.7 -2.3 1.6 -3.7 10.2 5.6 -2.2 9.2 -1.7 2.1 2.2 -2.9 0.8 9.1 Balanced Average 8.4 -9.9 3.3 -10.3 -15.3 -1.6 -10.4 0.1 -3.4 2.5 -4.0 11.0 5.1 -1.7 9.7 -2.2 1.3 2.8 -3.0 0.8 - Source: Datastream and International Financial Statistics. Note: Data reported in national currency is converted to current U.S. dollars using average monthly nominal exchange rates. Series are deflated using the U.S. CPI index and deseasoned using country speciffic time dumies. n.a. indicates not available. 6 APRIL TRADE WATCH Table 2: Month-to-Month Import Growth Continued (Percentage Change in Constant U.S. Dollars ­ Seasonally Adjusted ­ L to Z) 2008 2009 2010 jul aug sep oct nov dec jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec jan feb mar Latvia 7.1 -14.0 11.3 -17.2 -20.7 6.9 -7.2 -10.9 -8.8 -6.9 -4.3 7.1 2.5 1.8 12.2 -7.3 -0.1 -6.4 7.4 -1.6 n.a. Lithuania 5.4 -12.8 -0.1 -21.2 -16.6 2.5 -14.3 -4.6 -4.5 -11.2 14.1 7.0 0.5 11.8 -2.0 -3.3 -2.1 -5.6 9.5 -0.2 n.a. Luxembourg 21.8 -22.4 4.8 -11.4 -12.1 -5.4 -9.6 -2.8 3.5 -4.8 -0.8 11.9 6.6 -11.8 24.6 0.1 -4.3 1.7 -6.0 n.a. n.a. Malaysia 6.3 -5.6 -3.3 -9.1 -3.7 -15.5 -8.1 -1.3 -10.0 14.5 -0.4 8.2 10.4 -4.1 -2.0 16.9 0.5 -0.5 0.2 -4.9 n.a. Malta 20.3 -15.9 21.1 -36.1 -11.4 1.0 14.9 -21.5 -5.1 20.7 -9.4 -3.6 35.2 5.7 -17.2 -4.2 -3.1 1.3 -5.8 15.6 n.a. Mexico 12.1 -9.7 5.6 -11.1 -10.5 -6.3 -7.2 -3.1 1.7 -4.8 -7.9 18.7 1.2 -3.0 13.5 -10.8 6.7 6.7 -3.3 4.7 n.a. Netherlands 6.3 -10.6 0.7 -10.1 -14.4 1.7 -10.8 0.3 -2.7 2.5 -1.3 3.8 8.9 -3.6 7.8 -1.6 2.5 1.0 -1.3 -4.9 n.a. New Zealand 8.6 -8.1 -4.3 -3.5 -18.9 6.7 -18.8 -8.4 12.9 2.0 -7.8 25.1 -9.0 5.0 1.7 2.2 -4.9 9.5 -8.1 0.2 n.a. Norway 6.4 -16.6 16.7 -25.1 -12.4 11.2 -13.2 0.9 -5.4 5.4 -5.2 7.4 -0.3 8.1 10.2 -3.8 -2.3 -7.6 -0.9 2.7 n.a. Pakistan 2.8 -11.8 -15.8 27.7 -16.8 -18.9 18.2 -9.3 -3.5 26.6 -17.7 26.3 -4.9 -10.7 1.6 17.4 -12.0 17.5 13.2 -17.6 16.6 Peru -7.2 -10.1 15.7 -8.6 -17.8 -5.3 -6.3 -6.2 -5.5 4.9 -11.9 15.5 -1.5 -0.7 10.1 -2.1 8.5 -0.4 4.9 n.a. n.a. Philippines 8.7 -16.2 -0.7 -5.5 -18.0 1.2 -2.2 -1.1 -13.3 -6.8 23.3 11.1 -3.1 -12.7 3.4 3.8 -0.5 13.1 8.1 n.a. n.a. Poland 5.6 -12.4 2.7 -11.8 -15.0 -2.2 -9.4 -5.1 2.5 1.6 -5.6 10.3 5.3 -1.2 7.0 1.0 0.1 -9.5 6.0 5.4 n.a. Portugal 17.0 -11.5 -4.2 -7.9 -10.0 5.1 -12.6 -10.1 4.8 -3.7 -1.1 13.3 12.1 -6.1 16.1 -3.9 5.4 -3.9 -11.1 1.5 n.a. Romania 3.7 -9.0 14.3 -18.4 -25.7 -7.7 -10.0 3.3 -0.8 2.3 -7.8 10.2 2.0 1.9 25.6 -14.0 -3.8 -8.2 3.1 1.0 n.a. Russian Federation 10.9 -3.1 5.4 -6.7 -18.9 -2.4 -17.8 13.6 -5.9 5.6 -4.4 7.5 2.7 -0.3 17.8 1.1 0.2 -1.6 -9.2 22.7 n.a. Singapore 9.5 -16.1 10.3 -13.5 -11.8 -9.5 -7.1 7.3 -14.1 9.1 1.7 2.5 6.9 -4.3 14.9 -5.7 2.1 5.2 3.8 -3.0 n.a. Slovakia 3.5 -14.9 7.6 -9.3 -14.4 -6.1 1.9 -10.6 4.6 -2.2 -8.9 14.3 -0.4 2.9 11.5 0.8 0.5 -6.9 3.8 2.1 n.a. Slovenia 7.0 -7.4 -1.0 -5.4 -23.6 2.4 -10.0 -3.3 -2.0 3.3 -3.9 7.4 6.1 5.5 0.9 2.6 -1.4 -5.8 -1.9 -1.0 n.a. South Africa 23.5 -18.7 12.5 -24.0 -16.1 7.2 -5.0 -15.2 10.2 -9.0 -10.8 13.9 2.9 -2.3 14.6 6.0 -4.0 11.6 -16.0 10.4 n.a. Spain 13.2 -11.4 0.7 -15.2 -16.9 12.0 -17.0 11.5 -14.5 4.9 -7.1 7.1 10.4 -0.5 14.9 -6.6 0.6 -4.3 1.2 n.a. n.a. Sri Lanka 9.5 2.7 -1.4 -9.2 -10.8 0.9 -20.6 -7.6 52.6 -33.9 14.8 19.5 11.4 -7.4 -3.9 19.5 79.8 -45.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. Sweden 6.4 -20.6 0.7 -10.9 -17.2 -5.8 -7.4 1.4 0.4 -0.1 -0.7 7.9 6.7 -3.2 16.7 -6.7 2.7 -1.0 -6.9 11.4 n.a. Switzerland 9.6 -12.5 6.6 -8.8 -14.1 7.2 -6.7 0.8 -1.7 -1.8 -1.4 9.6 4.7 -6.9 17.8 -6.6 3.2 -0.7 -6.5 -1.6 n.a. Taiwan, Province of China -3.3 14.7 -17.1 -17.6 -7.8 -22.7 -18.2 31.3 -11.8 5.4 4.8 17.2 -3.2 18.7 -3.5 -3.4 12.8 0.3 12.7 -7.9 14.1 Thailand 11.7 -9.8 2.0 -3.2 -13.9 -6.5 -23.6 -7.9 4.0 11.7 -12.1 22.7 7.4 -10.7 22.6 -3.8 -0.3 19.6 -13.0 8.8 n.a. Turkey 3.6 -3.7 -5.6 -15.5 -18.4 -13.8 1.5 -4.7 -1.2 -0.6 1.7 16.6 1.5 1.8 -1.4 2.5 -2.2 9.9 -3.0 -1.0 n.a. Ukraine 8.8 -5.0 5.5 -14.5 -26.1 -22.6 -23.5 69.8 -14.2 -3.4 -3.2 -5.5 20.1 0.4 6.5 2.5 7.0 -2.8 0.0 -3.3 n.a. United Kingdom 4.8 -12.2 1.1 -7.3 -17.9 3.2 -10.4 -2.2 -4.2 9.6 -8.3 13.0 3.3 -5.2 13.2 -2.6 -0.5 3.3 -6.9 n.a. n.a. United States 7.2 -7.6 -2.2 -3.2 -14.1 -0.3 -10.7 -7.3 -1.5 1.7 -3.8 6.1 7.5 -5.6 10.1 -3.8 3.1 6.8 -5.6 2.4 n.a. Uruguay -39.9 40.1 9.3 -15.8 -26.9 12.4 -24.3 10.0 -3.8 -1.7 -0.9 32.8 -2.9 -11.3 2.3 -9.3 1.9 20.0 -26.1 -10.7 n.a. Venezuela -1.0 -8.6 18.5 10.6 -11.0 21.1 -18.0 -16.9 21.7 -9.9 -20.4 -3.0 3.3 4.2 6.7 -38.3 5.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Viet Nam 7.7 -10.5 -9.3 5.2 -19.6 6.6 -19.4 35.7 4.2 3.8 -1.6 1.5 11.9 -7.6 11.6 4.5 -0.7 5.3 -4.1 -4.4 12.3 Average 8.1 -9.9 3.2 -9.3 -14.9 -1.6 -9.4 -0.7 -2.3 1.6 -3.7 10.2 5.6 -2.2 9.2 -1.7 2.1 2.2 -2.9 0.8 9.1 Balanced Average 8.4 -9.9 3.3 -10.3 -15.3 -1.6 -10.4 0.1 -3.4 2.5 -4.0 11.0 5.1 -1.7 9.7 -2.2 1.3 2.8 -3.0 0.8 - Source: Datastream and International Financial Statistics. Note: Data reported in national currency is converted to current U.S. dollars using average monthly nominal exchange rates. Series are deflated using the U.S. CPI index and deseasoned using country speciffic time dumies. n.a. indicates not available. 7 Table 3: U.S. Import Growth by Industry (in U.S. dollars relative to same quarter previous year) 2008 2009 Jan/feb2010 rel. Jan/feb2010 rel. Industry Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 to Jan/feb2009 to Jan/feb2008 Animal & Animal Products -0.42 -1.85 -8.04 -7.50 -15.23 -13.06 -4.59 -14.47 Vegetable Products 24.08 11.94 -6.36 -13.20 -13.94 -7.49 1.51 -3.12 Foodstuffs 12.98 3.18 -5.00 -8.63 -11.33 -3.21 8.33 -0.06 Mineral Products 57.57 -13.36 -51.40 -54.02 -48.72 -14.24 49.15 -28.00 Chemicals & Allied Industries 23.82 8.19 -13.32 -17.79 -17.08 -3.31 8.93 -7.73 Plastics / Rubbers 8.73 0.69 -22.48 -27.00 -23.31 -14.27 15.25 -11.20 Raw Hides, Raw Hides, Leather & Furs 1.27 -5.09 -14.64 -22.91 -27.33 -16.65 -1.82 -16.39 Wood & Wood Products -8.86 -13.94 -26.51 -30.12 -27.08 -17.67 2.31 -25.05 Textiles -2.52 -4.83 -13.27 -16.37 -14.36 -8.74 1.19 -13.17 Footwear / Headgear 3.05 0.98 -7.31 -13.98 -13.67 -8.08 0.98 -6.63 Stone / Glass 6.05 -19.58 -36.80 -31.86 -25.78 9.27 32.45 -17.97 Metals 16.33 4.40 -26.57 -50.20 -51.83 -36.26 -7.55 -29.03 Machinery / Electrical 4.25 -11.04 -22.35 -24.24 -19.14 0.24 12.45 -13.22 Transportation -10.33 -23.18 -46.68 -46.07 -24.16 -0.58 36.49 -28.22 Miscellaneous 1.36 -6.11 -18.38 -22.45 -16.22 -9.16 8.18 -13.71 Total 14.56 -9.03 -29.88 -34.32 -28.87 -7.88 17.59 -18.87 Source: U.S.I.T.C. and authors' calculations. Table 4: Japan's Import Growth by Industry (in Japanese Yen relative to same quarter previous year) 2008 2009 Jan-feb2010 rel. Jan-feb2010 rel. Industry Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 to Jan-feb2009 to Jan-feb2008 Animal & Animal Products 8.89 -2.69 -15.75 -18.17 -24.85 -20.24 -7.73 -19.07 Vegetable Products 32.26 3.80 -27.25 -32.01 -36.08 -27.33 3.92 -26.59 Foodstuffs -3.71 -7.68 -7.86 -12.55 -11.63 -10.12 -1.94 -13.52 Mineral Products 59.13 -5.93 -47.90 -54.84 -54.19 -29.45 28.01 -31.61 Chemicals & Allied Industries 13.18 -1.55 -21.05 -22.02 -18.48 -8.95 16.74 -7.84 Plastics / Rubbers 11.46 1.49 -31.59 -37.42 -33.84 -24.58 13.08 -20.29 Raw Hides, Raw Hides, Leather & Furs -8.04 -17.81 -16.16 -23.52 -20.65 -15.14 -3.00 -21.84 Wood & Wood Products -1.62 -4.31 -17.87 -25.33 -28.87 -20.28 -0.59 -16.62 Textiles -1.52 -4.19 -6.72 -11.62 -14.42 -12.54 0.24 -12.01 Footwear / Headgear 2.25 -2.45 -5.81 -6.77 -13.56 -18.94 -0.38 -11.81 Stone / Glass 6.63 -19.09 -47.89 -48.59 -43.74 -26.33 31.23 -32.32 Metals 4.70 -10.56 -47.95 -64.33 -56.51 -37.28 16.83 -36.28 Machinery / Electrical -3.59 -17.91 -37.26 -29.54 -26.86 -12.09 25.26 -22.63 Transportation 5.52 -32.51 -43.37 -45.80 -42.78 1.04 5.09 -45.58 Miscellaneous -4.33 -14.57 -30.03 -26.06 -23.51 -13.28 15.99 -22.40 Total 21.30 -9.63 -37.07 -40.38 -39.93 -21.07 18.02 -25.95 Source: Ministry of Finance, Japan, and authors' calculations. APRIL TRADE WATCH Figure 1: Three Month Export Growth* by Region 20 Previous 15 Current 10 5 0 EUR ECA NOA LCR EAP SAS -5 -10 Source: Datastream, U.S. Commerce Department, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and authors' calculations. Seasonally adjusted growth from September-October-November to December- January-February in "Current" and June-July-August to September-October-November in "Previous"; *Seasonally adjusted using time-region fixed effects and deflated using U.S. consumer price index. Figure 2: Three Month Import Growth* by Region 20 Previous 15 Current 10 5 0 EUR ECA NOA LCR EAP SAS -5 -10 Source: Datastream, U.S. Commerce Department, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and authors' calculations. Seasonally adjusted growth from September-October-November to December- January-February in "Current" and June-July-August to September-October-November in "Previous"; *Seasonally adjusted using time-region fixed effects and deflated using U.S. consumer price index. 9 APRIL TRADE WATCH Figure 3: Three Month Export Growth by Country 25 Previous Current 20 15 10 5 0 Greece Mexico South Africa Singapore Ecuador Ukraine France China Netherlands Korea, Republic of Indonesia Turkey Chile Hong Kong India Sweden Cyprus Philippines Iceland Croatia Japan Russian Federation Switzerland Argentina Slovenia Czech Republic Israel Poland Pakistan Denmark Finland Hungary Estonia Brazil Malta Romania Portugal Germany Taiwan, Province of China Latvia Australia Malaysia Lithuania Bulgaria Slovakia Norway Canada Thailand Viet Nam New Zealand United States Kazakhstan -5 -10 -15 Source: Datastream, U.S. Commerce Department, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and authors' calculations. Seasonally adjusted growth from September-October-November to December-January-February in "Current" and June- July-August to September-October-November in "Previous"; *Seasonally adjusted using time-region fixed effects and deflated using U.S. consumer price index. Figure 4: Three Month Import Growth by Country 25 Previous Current 20 15 10 5 0 Greece Mexico Singapore South Africa Ecuador Ukraine France China Netherlands Korea, Republic of Indonesia Chile India Turkey Hong Kong Sweden Cyprus Japan Croatia Iceland Russian Federation Switzerland Argentina Slovenia Czech Republic Israel Poland Pakistan Denmark Finland Hungary Estonia Malta Brazil Romania Portugal Germany Taiwan, Province of China Latvia Uruguay Malaysia Lithuania Australia Bulgaria Slovakia Norway Canada Viet Nam Thailand New Zealand United States Kazakhstan -5 -10 -15 Source: Datastream, U.S. Commerce Department, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and authors' calculations. Seasonally adjusted growth from September-October-November to December-January-February in "Current" and June- July-August to September-October-November in "Previous"; *Seasonally adjusted using time-region fixed effects and deflated using U.S. consumer price index. 10 APRIL TRADE WATCH Figure 5: Month-Over-Month Trade Growth, Now and Then 30 20 10 0 -48 -44 -40 -32 -28 -20 -16 -36 -24 -12 12 16 24 28 36 40 48 20 32 44 0 4 8 -8 -4 -10 -20 Current -30 Past Mean -40 Past Median -50 Source: Datastream, I.M.F., U.S. Commerce Department, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and author's calculations. Data in US dollars for a balanced sample of 31 countries, deflated using U.S. consumer price index. Figure 6: Natural Logarithm of World Imports 28 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.2 27 26.8 26.6 26.4 2000m1 2000m9 2001m1 2001m5 2002m1 2002m5 2002m9 2003m5 2003m9 2004m1 2004m9 2005m1 2005m5 2006m1 2006m5 2006m9 2007m5 2007m9 2008m1 2008m9 2009m1 2009m5 2010m1 2000m5 2001m9 2003m1 2004m5 2005m9 2007m1 2008m5 2009m9 Source: Datastream, Bloomberg, U.S. Commerce Department and authors' calculations using a balanced sample of 50 economies reporting data. Imports are in current US dollars. 11