WPS8371 Policy Research Working Paper 8371 An Evaluation of the Contributing Factors of Water Scheme Failures in Nigeria Luis Andres Gnanaraj Chellaraj Basab Das Gupta Jonathan Grabinsky George Joseph Water Global Practice March 2018 Policy Research Working Paper 8371 Abstract This paper utilizes information from the 2015 Nigeria factors that can be controlled in the design, implementa- National Water and Sanitation Survey to identify the tion, and operational stages contribute to the failure of 61 extent and timing of the failure of water schemes in the percent of the water schemes. As water schemes age, their country and the factors affecting it. Around 46 percent of likelihood of failure is best predicted by factors that cannot all the water schemes in Nigeria are nonfunctional, and be modified. The influence of operational factors, such approximately 30 percent are likely to fail in the first year. as repairs and maintenance, decreases slightly over time. The results indicate that during the first year of operation, This paper is a product of the Water Global Practice. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org. The authors may be contacted at Landres@worldbank.org. The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. 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Produced by the Research Support Team An Evaluation of the Contributing Factors of Water Scheme Failures in Nigeria1 Luis Andres, Gnanaraj Chellaraj, Basab Das Gupta, Jonathan Grabinsky, and George Joseph JEL Classification: D02, O18, Q25 Key words: Water schemes, Nigeria, Functionality 1 Luis A. Andres: World Bank Water Global Practice, landres@worldbank.org [Corresponding author]. Gnararaj Chellaraj: World  Bank Water Global Practice, gchellaraj@worldbank.org . Basab Dasgupta: Social Impact, Impact Evaluation Division,  bdasgupta@socialimpact.com . Jonathan Grabinsky Zabludovsky: World Bank Water Global Practice,  jonathan.grabinsky@gmail.com . George Joseph: World Bank Water Global Practice, gjoseph@worldbank.org. Senior  authorship is not assigned.    The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily  represent the view of the World Bank, its executive directors, or the countries they represent. The findings, interpretations, and  any remaining errors in this paper are entirely those of the authors.  1. Background The non-functionality of water schemes is a major problem in many developing countries, and this trend is particularly pronounced in Sub-Saharan Africa. In some cases, breakdowns occur within the first year after implementation. Surprisingly, however, the causes of such failures have rarely been analyzed in a systematic way—a gap this study intends to fill. In this paper, we utilize information from the 2015 Nigeria National Water and Sanitation Survey (NWSS) to identify the reasons for the failure of water schemes2 in the country. We seek to understand the interactions between various factors: (1) the extent and (2) timing of the failures; and (3) the type of scheme in question, including (4) its technology, (5) geographic location, (6) underlying hydrogeology, (7) type of promoter, and (8) management setup. The non-functionality of water schemes has taken on considerable importance in recent years, with global freshwater ecosystems undergoing rapid change: amid urbanization and an overall increase in pollution, clean water will be increasingly unavailable, particularly in developing economies (Steele, forthcoming; Hoekstra et al., 2012). A lack of functional infrastructure, including for drinking water and sanitation, could constrain economic growth (Agenor, 2010; Barbier, 2004). Recent evidence also indicates that infrastructure—including water and sanitation—is likely to offset moderate macroeconomic shortcomings at the initial stages of development (Moller and Wacker, 2017; Gibson and Rioja, 2017). In recent years, several studies have documented the failure of water schemes in developing countries. In countries such as Ethiopia (Deneke and Hawassa, 2008) and Ghana (Fisher et al., 2015), 39% and 21% water schemes were found to be either non-functional or abandoned, respectively. The situation is similar in Mozambique (Jansz, 2011) and Kenya (Koehler et al., 2015). In this paper, we use locally weighted scatterplot smoothing (LWSS) (“Lowess Smoothing” of running-line least squares), logit regression analysis, and Shapley decomposition to analyze the reasons for the failure of water schemes in Nigeria. Our analysis indicates that, in the first year of operation, factors that can be controlled in the design, operational, and implementation stages contribute to the                                                              2 Water distribution system from the point of origin to destinations such as households and farms. 2    failure of 61% of water schemes. Then, as water schemes age, the likelihood of their failure is best predicted by factors that cannot be modified, as well as by those that can be controlled during their operational stages. Conversely, as water schemes age, the share of water scheme failures linked to factors that are relevant at the design and implementation stage decreases slightly. The paper proceeds as follows. First, we discuss the particular context of Nigeria, before offering an overview of the literature behind this study. In Section 4, we discuss the methodology and data used to analyze and predict the failure of water schemes. In Section 5, we present our results. In Section 6, we conclude. 2. Nigeria’s Context Access to water supply, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) services is limited in Sub-Saharan Africa: 319 million people in the region did not have access to improved water, and 694 million lacked access to improved sanitation facilities in 2015.3 Alarmingly, a large body of evidence suggests that limited or no access to WASH services adversely impacts development outcomes such as health, limits access to educational and economic opportunities, and hampers work efficiency and labor productivity (World Bank, 2016). Nigeria, with a population of 182 million, is the largest country in Sub-Saharan Africa (World Bank, 2017). Despite the current economic recession, it has also been one of the fastest-growing economies in the region in recent years: its gross domestic product (GDP) quadrupled between 2005 and 2015. However, despite its rapid growth, the country has had limited success in reducing its persistently high poverty levels, most likely due to three factors: (1) economic growth has been accompanied by high                                                              3 Improved water sources are those which, by the nature of their construction and when properly used, adequately protect the source from outside contamination, particularly fecal matter. Such sources include piped water to yards or plots, public taps or standpipes, tube wells or boreholes, protected springs, and rainwater. An improved sanitation facility is one that hygienically separates human excreta from human contact and that is unshared or is shared between two or more households.   3    rates of population growth; (2) there has been no large-scale creation of jobs and other opportunities for citizens; and (3) the inequality gap is widening—and doing so rapidly. Further, a number of other key indicators, such as measures of the accumulation of physical and human capital and households’ access to basic services, suggest that Nigeria is lagging behind other countries in the region, despite its impressive GDP growth (World Bank, 2017). At the beginning of the millennium, Nigeria had an estimated 224 trillion liters of surface water and 50 million trillion liters of groundwater, for an estimated population of about 128 million. About 6 billion liters were consumed in 2001, which suggests an abundant water resource potential (Akujieze et al., 2003). But the country faces some significant obstacles to utilizing its water potential. The available hydrogeological base maps for the country are of poor quality, and hence not of much use in helping the government develop a water exploration and extraction plan. Furthermore, poor knowledge of the Nigerian geological terrain, lack of infrastructure facilities, and the absence of a working legislature significantly hinder the exploration, exploitation, operation, control, and management of Nigeria’s abundant groundwater resources. Nigeria’s rates of access to WASH services are below those seen in many other Sub-Saharan African countries. Fifty-seven million people in Nigeria continue to live without access to improved water. As many as 130 million people do not meet the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) standards for sanitation. Poor sanitation in its own right costs the country 455 billion naira ($2 billion) per year. These problems persist although the country has achieved the MDGs for water (World Bank, 2017). Nigeria’s urban areas have considerably better access to improved water services than its rural areas (World Bank, 2017). However, rapid rural-urban migration is placing significant strain on urban water supply and infrastructure. For example, the Nigerian capital city of Abuja is a key destination for rural migrants seeking better employment and a safer living environment. The city administration is trying to provide water and sanitation services to a rapidly growing number of people, across disparate neighborhoods that include informal settlements (Abubakar, 2014). A 2012 study indicated that, in southwest Nigeria, Abeokuta City’s water scheme would no longer be adequate to meet the total water 4    requirements of the entire city in 2015, including for drinking water, even operating at full capacity (Idowu et al., 2012). Lagos, too, suffers a lack of potable water (Barredo and Demicheli, 2003). A bottom-up approach that considers current urban water and transport infrastructure while modeling the city’s future land-use scenario might address the problem. Meanwhile, Oyo State has suffered water contamination due to equipment failure (Sangodoyin, 1993). Across the country, and particularly in the south, community water and sanitation programs in Nigeria face staggering challenges. Many are abandoned prematurely due to numerous institutional and economic factors. In short, the delivery and maintenance of WASH services continues to be a major problem in the country (Ademiluyi and Odugbesan, 2008). As the global community moves toward achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), it is important to assess Nigeria’s current state of water and sanitation access, so that policy makers and key stakeholders can develop effective policies and interventions to address present shortcomings in access to WASH. These efforts should be targeted at the most vulnerable segments of society, specifically those that experience the greatest burdens of poverty. 3. Literature Review Literature on water infrastructure functionality in Nigeria is all but non-existent. In fact, literature on the functionality of most forms of infrastructure, even in developed countries such as the United States, is sparse at best. Significant topics, such as the impact of the community-based management model on water infrastructure functionality, call for research attention (as discussed in Whaley and Cleaver, 2017). Researchers focused on Nigeria must look to studies of the functionality and sustainability of water infrastructure undertaken in a handful of other African countries in recent decades (Liddle and Fenner, 2017; Carter and Ross, 2016; Koehler et al., 2015; Foster, 2013; Duti, 2012; Baumann, 2009). 5    Most such surveys simplistically label the status of a water point’s functionality using a binary definition: either the water scheme was “working” or “not working” at the time of its assessment. A few list failure rates over the entire survey period, but they are the exception. A review of relevant surveys (Wilson et al., forthcoming) indicates that: (1) there is no widely agreed upon definition for functionality, and so it is difficult to compare the results of various surveys, and (2) most surveys use the binary definition of “working” or “not working,” though some refer to “partial functionality.”4 Until recently, studies of the failure of water schemes in Nigeria were also basically non-existent. However, a recent study of water points (Andres et al., 2018) offers some findings relevant to schemes. Though location—both in terms of political region and underlying hydrogeology—is the major factor affecting the functionality of water points during their first year, factors that can be controlled in the design, operational, and implementation stages also contribute significantly to failure rates. Then, as water points age, their likelihood of failure is best predicted by those factors that cannot be modified, as well as technology. The presence of a water, sanitation, and hygiene committee (WASHCOM) and regular repair and maintenance decline in importance over time. A recent study (Cronk and Bartram, 2017), using Bayesian analysis, finds that water systems in Nigeria are more likely to be functional if they are used by both livestock and humans. The authors suggest doing more to monitor systems and analyze the data gathered. Meanwhile, several studies focus on sustainability. In the urban area of Ibadan, most water schemes that involve shallow wells are unsustainable. Hence these are supplemented by rainwater and water vendors (Enabor, 1998). Another study of Nigeria suggests a pragmatic strategy that involves all stakeholders in a collaborative effort to raise the sustainability of community water and sanitation programs (Ademiluyi and Odugbesan, 2008). A study of rural water schemes in Akwa Ibom State lists several factors behind failure: a lack of maintenance, poor community participation, little or no coordination and cooperation among stakeholders, political factors, inefficient monitoring, and a lack of maintenance and oversight of public property (Ibok and Daniel, 2014).                                                              4 http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/514658/1/Handpump.pdf. 6    For the Sub-Saharan region as a whole, the foundations of sustainability have been identified as: (1) effective community demand, (2) local financing and cost-recovery, and (3) dynamic operation and maintenance (Montgomery et al., 2009). In the Greater Afram Region of Ghana, 60% of water schemes were found to be between 8 and 18 years old and one-third of the water schemes had been rehabilitated (Fisher et al., 2015). In Mali, the sustainability of water points and schemes was supported by a “platform” approach to rural water supply management that mobilized the assets and insights of various social actors to influence decision making at all stages (Gleitsmann et al., 2007). In Ethiopia, 43% of 21 hand pumps surveyed were not working at the time of the assessment (Schweitzer et al. 2015). One study associates the sustainability of water schemes with having good records, regular meetings, financial audits, higher monthly fees, a paid caretaker, and water committees with the capacity to perform minor repairs (Alexander et al., 2015). In the South Gondar region of Ethiopia 73% of water schemes functioned properly, while 18% functioned with frequent breakdowns, and 10% did not function at all (Stawicki, 2012). In the Mirab Abuya Woerda region of Ethiopia, 37% of water schemes had been abandoned. Many of these were more than 20 years old (Deneke and Hawassa, 2008). Also in Ethiopia’s Woerda and Amhara regions, it was found that where women are involved in the day-to-day operation of water schemes, these tend to be sustainable (Beyene, 2012). In Tanzania, the two major challenges were: (1) identifying additional external funding to implement the scheme and (2) addressing local authorities’ lack of strategic oversight to efficiently fulfill their responsibilities. Also, prior to the receipt of funds, technical support to build up capacity is vital (Gine and Perez-Foguet, 2008). WaterAid, a UK-based non-governmental organization, recommends that water schemes in Tanzania (WaterAid Tanzania, 2009): get organized to ensure sustainability, improve community participation in planning processes, capitalize on the potential of small-scale private operators to support rural schemes, consolidate progress toward securing water rights, improve monitoring and regulation mechanisms, and improve the support services offered by district water departments. For Kenya, Koehler et al. (2015) suggest enhancing the sustainability of rural water supply by pooling maintenance and financial risks at a scale now supported by advances in 7    monitoring and payment technologies. In Uganda, key barriers to sustainability included the cost (and lack) of preventive maintenance (Harvey, 2017) and a lack of accountability (DeWachter et al. 2018). In Mozambique the improved implementation of water policy along with effective capacity-building among all stakeholders would improve sustainability (Jansz, 2011). Finally, Parry-Jones et al. (2001) outline eight questions that may be asked to assess the sustainability of Sub-Saharan Africa’s water schemes: (1) are people covered by the project utilizing the facilities, (2) are the facilities in operating order, (3) are management committees functioning, (4) are extension agents meeting with committees regularly, (5) are skills and spare parts readily available, (6) is there a specific management agency within the government, (7) are there importers and manufacturers of spare parts, and (8) does each institution have adequate financial resources? For developing countries as a whole, Koestler et al. (2010) emphasize the need to measure annual investment in water schemes’ maintenance. Another study observes that community involvement, financial conditions, government support, and efficient management and technology all play influential roles in the long-term functionality of water schemes in developing countries (Walters and Javernick-Will, 2015). For a group of developing countries, Carter et al. (1996) propose setting objectives, a checklist of program activities, and skill requirements for staff to improve sustainability. Studies of individual countries also reveal significant insights. For Nicaragua, several factors have been shown to support the sustainability of water schemes. These include demand-responsive approaches to developing, operating, managing, and maintaining rural water infrastructure; cost-recovery mechanisms; community participation in the management of water supply and sanitation (WSS) systems; efforts to build the management and oversight capacity of local community boards, and the sustained provision of post-construction technical assistance by local authorities in Nicaragua (Borja-Vega et al., 2017). For Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama (Cronk, 2017), the use of better monitoring tools has been emphasized. For Vanuatu, women play a key role in water schemes’ management, boosting their sustainability (Mommen et al., 2017). As has been noted, the problems observed in developing countries are seen in industrialized countries as well, both in terms of infrastructure and service delivery. In some 8    parts of the United States, particularly in rural areas, water schemes are absent and many houses lack indoor plumbing (RCAP, 2010; Vance, 2016; Fetterman, 1967).5 In general, the adoption of improved technology promises to improve sustainability, especially as the use of groundwater resources accelerates around the world (Janke et al., 2017; Gorelick and Zheng, 2015; Ahfield and Laverty, 2011; Barlow et al., 1996; Owolabi and Omotola, 1994). Brueckner (1997) finds that over the last few decades of the 20th century, the financing of economic growth increasingly relied on land-use exactions, as new residents paid for the cost of incremental infrastructure, including water and sanitation. Hsiao and Chang (2002) show that the fixed costs associated with installation significantly impact the number and location of water points and schemes. Surprisingly, there is a marked decline in the amount of hydrogeological data being collected in many parts of the developing world, with implications for the operational performance of water schemes across Africa, Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean, among other regions (Sene and Furquharson, 1998). One recent study indicates that aid disbursements have a positive, significant correlation to improved access to water supply and sanitation (Gopalan and Rajan, 2016). Another recent study suggests that donors need to increase aid allocation to water and sanitation in Sub-Saharan Africa (Ndikumana and Pickbourn, 2017). There is also a need to identify and address structural constraints that could limit access to water and sanitation. 4. Methodology and Data (a) Methodology First, a locally weighted scatterplot smoothing (LWSS) (“Lowess Smoothing” of running-line least squares) is used to carry out a locally weighted non-parametric regression of “non-functionality”                                                              5 In rural areas where the population is dispersed, such as parts of Texas along the Mexico border, the chances of not having either indoor plumbing or any form of water scheme increases sharply. In six states—Alabama, New Mexico, Arizona, West Virginia, Kentucky, and Mississippi—half of the households without these services live below the poverty level. The dire situation in the U.S. Appalachia has not changed much in the past 50 years.   9    (0,1) on age in years6 (1=