4'~~~~~ Document of a ; a . The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. 2305-PAK PAKISTAN STAFF APPRAISAL OF A PRIMARY EDUCATION PROJECT March 15, 1979 Projects Department East Asia and Pacific Regional Office This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENT Currency Unit - Pakistan Rupee (PR) US$1 PRs 9.90 PR 1 US$0.101 Fiscal Year July 1 - June 30 School Year March to February GLOSSARY Geographic and Administrative Units NWFP - Northwest Frontier Province Division - The largest unit of a province - not prominent in primary school management. District - The unit below the division; the dominant unit for local school management. The total number in the nation is 51. Tehsil - The unit below the district, not now used for educational management but used in the project for selection of schools. Other Terms AEO - Assistant Education Officer DEO - District Education Officer FPU - Federal Project Unit PTC - Primary Teacher Certificate PWD - Public Works Department (provincial) PWP - Peoples Work Program TTI - Teacher Training Institute PAKISTAN PRIMARY EDUCATION PROJECT FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. Basic Data Glossary 1. OVERVIEW OF THE PRIMARY EDUCATION SYSTEM . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Structure and Distinguishing Characteristics . . . . . . . . . Education Finance .1... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Primary Education .... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Z.' Curriculum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Textbooks . . . . . . . . . . ... . 4 Management and Supervision . ........ . . . . 4 Teacher Training .... . . . . . . . . . . . . .... 5 In-Service Training ... . . . . . . . . . . . . .... 6 Educational Plans .......... . . .... . 7 Bank Group Participation ... . . . . . . . ... . 8 2. ISSUES IN PRIMARY EDUCATION . ............. .. . . 10 Problems . . 10 Unequal Opportunity . . . ....... 10 Wastage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Low Quality .11 Financial Constraints .12 Causes .13 Economic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Socio-cultural . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Educational . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 A Strategy for Rural Primary Education . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Equal Opportunity .... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Wastage .... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Quality .... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Costs .... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 3. THE PROJECT .17 Objectives ..17 Content, Scope and Sequence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Project Components .... . . . . ...... . . . . . . . . 19 Teacher Service ............. . 19 Supervision . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Instructional Materials and Curricula . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Physical Facilities ..23 This report is based on the findings of a mission to Pakistan during August/ September 1978 composed of Messrs. F. Farner (General Educator and mission leader) and T.S. Sigurdsson (Architect), Ms. I. Tsakok (Economist) and Mr. P. Dalin (Educational Training Specialist, consultant). This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. - ii - Page No. Staff Development and Research ... . ..... . . . . . 24 Training . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Training Method and Duration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Experimentation and Evaluation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Technical Assistance and Studies . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 4. PROJECT COSTS, FINANCING, IMPLEMENTATION AND DISBURSEMENT . . 28 Costs of the Project ... . . . . ..... . . . . . . . 28 Base Cost Estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Cost Per Pu-Ail Place . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Foreign Exchange Component . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Duties and Taxes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Project Financing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Implementation .... . . . . ...... . . . . . . . . 31 Administration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Federal Level .... . . . . ..... . . . . . . . . 32 Provincial Level ... . . . . ..... . . . . . . . 33 Training .... . . . . . ...... . . . . . . . . . 34 Research and Evaluation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Physical Design .... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 School Location Planning ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Finance Implementation ... . . . .... . . . . . . . 35 Implementation Schedule . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Procurement ..36 Disbursements ..37 Documentation ..38 Accounts and Audits ..39 5. BENEFITS AND RISKS .39 Benefits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Risks ........................... . 40 6. AGREEMENTS REACHED .40 ANNEXES 1. Comparative Education Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 2. Implementation Chart ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . 44 3. List of Background Papers Available in Project File . . . . . . 45 MAP Project Districts and Tehsils (IBRD 14055) - iii - Page No. List of Tables 1.1 Opportunities for Primary Education in Pakistan 1975/76 . . . . 3 1.2 Enrollment in Primary Schools, by Sex and Province, 1977/78 .... . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 1.3 Estimated Number of Primary Teachers by Sex and Province ('000), 1977/78 . . . .4. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 1.4 Preservice Primary Teacher Training, by Sex and Province, 1978. 6 1.5 Education Plans, Targets and Achievements at the Primary Level ............... 7 1.6 Primary Education: Share of Total Recurrent Expenditures (x) 8 2.1 Indicators of Access to Primary Schools by Sex and Province, 1977/78 .10 2.2 Percentage of Untrained Teachers by Sex and Province, 1973/74 . 11 3.1 Coverage of the Project by Sex and Province, 1977/78 . . . . . 19 3.2 Relationships Among Schools, Supervisors and Learning Coordinators, by Sex and Province . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 3.3 Physical Facilities by Sex and Province . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 3.4 Number of Personnel Requiring Training, by Sex . . . . . . . . 24 3.5 Content, Number of Trainees, Locale and Timing for Segments of Training ...25 3.6 Composition of the "Segment A" Group Selected for Training . . 26 4.1 Summary of Project Costs by Province . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 4.2 Summary of Project Costs by Category of Expenditure . . . 29 4.3 Area and Cost per Place . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 4.4 Financial Plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 4.5 Provincial Implementation Staffing Plan . . .34 4.6 Schedule of Expenditures and Disbursement . . . . . . . . . . . 38 BASIC DATA - PAKISTAN /1 Enrollment: 1977/78 Number Gross enroll- enrolled ment ratio (thousands) Primary schools (Grades 1-5)/2 5,927 54% (M:73%; F:33%) Middle schools (Grades 6-8)/2 1,293 23% (M:34%; F:10%) High schools (Grades 9-10)/2 513 14% (M:22%; F: 6%) Intermediate level: Arts and science colleges (Grades 11-12) 190 (M:141; F:49) Degree level: General universities & arts & science colleges (Grades 13-14) 64 (M:45; F:19) Postgraduate - General universities & degree colleges (Grades 15+) 22 (M:17; F: 5) Vocational schools (excl. teacher training) 34 (M:27; F: 7) Teacher training (Grades 11-15) 25 (M:15; F:10) Professional colleges and universities (excluding colleges of education)(Grades 11-14+) 50 (M:44; F: 6) Education Finance: 1976/77 Total education expenditures by Government (PRs millions) 2,487 As % of total expenditures by Government 6.5% As % of GNP 1.7% Per capita (PRs 34) $3.45 (1977/78 per capita: PRs 43 $4.35) Recurrent education expenditures by Government (PRs millions) 1,870 As % of total recurrent expenditures by Government 8.2% /1 See Annex 1 for Comparative Education Indicators. /2 Data include overage students. 1. OVERVIEW OF THE PRIMARY EDUCATION SYSTEM Structure and Distinguishing Characteristics 1.01 Education in Pakistan differs from that of most other developing nations in many ways, the most important of which are: (a) separate schools are operated for males and females, with a significant disparity between the sexes in enrollment ratios: 73% for males and 33% for females at the primary level; (b) educational administration and financing are divided between federal and provincial governments; together the two levels of government allocate less than 2% of GNP to education (compared to 3-5% in other developing nations); and (c) limited opportunities for basic education, coupled with low demand among parts of the society, result in low literacy rates (24% overall, male 36% and female 11%); unlike most other developing nations, the literacy rate is remaining roughly constant. 1.02 The formal education system is comprised of the following levels: Primary: - Grades 1-5 Ages 5-9 (nominally) Secondary: Middle - Grades 6-8 Ages 10-12t High - Grades 9-10 Ages 13-14 Intermediate - Grades 11-12 Ages 15-16 Degree and Postgraduate - Grades 13-14+ Ages 17-18+ Overall, enrollments are increasing slightly faster than the population growth rate, and primary enrollment ratios increased from 50% to 53% between 1972 and 1977. Access is imbalanced with significantly lower enrollment of girls generally and of both sexes in rural areas. Less than 4% of primary and secondary pupils attend private schools. Educational content has a strongly academic and theoretical bias with little relevance to life and work, even in the technical and vocational courses. Rigid, memory-based teaching is the rule and is reinforced by the examination system. Teachers and other educators are frequently absent from their duties, and difficulties with assignment of staff are common at all levels. Multiple languages impede learning: in 90% of the homes a regional language is spoken but education is conducted entirely in Urdu (or English) after the early primary grades. Problems result from the division of administrative responsibility: the provincial governments have responsibility for building and maintaining schools, and employing personnel, but they share responsibility for general policy, curriculum, development of teaching materials, and planning and finance with the federal government. Education remains seriously underfinanced, especially at the primary level. Education Finance 1.03 Education financing in Pakistan is characterized by: - the low share of education in total developmental resources; -2- - a particularly low share of the budget allocated to the primary level; - the division of responsibility between the federal government (development costs) and provincial governments (recurrent costs); and - the insignificant local community and private contributions to the school system. In Pakistan, public educational financing falls below the averages for LDCs on three key indicators: (a) government revenues represent only 14-15% of GNP compared to 16-17% in most LDCs; (b) less than 8% of public expenditures is allocated to education (roughly 20% in other LDCs); and (c) resulting education budgets are less than 2% of GNP (compared with 3-5% in other LDCs). Primary education receives a lower share of the education budget than the postsecondary level (34% vs. 38%), and improvement of the lower level has been hampered in the past by curtailment of primary allocations in response to budgetary pressure. A persistent problem in the sector has been the imbalance between federal and provincial expenditures, i.e., the high ratio of capital (30-35%) to recurrent expenditures (65-70%), which has led to inadequate use (and hence wastage) of facilities built with federal funds. Recurrent costs per student are especially low at the primary and secondary levels and contribute to the low quality of the system. 1.04 Since recurrent expenditures constitute the bulk of education expenditures, the potential for raising the level of recurrent expenditures determines the scope for expansion and improvement of the education sector. The Fifth Five-Year Plan sets the target for recurrent expenditures on primary education at 70% of total primary allocations. However, recurrent expenditures are provided solely by provincial governments; they already constitute a significant proportion (roughly 30%) of total provincial revenue expenditures, and increases in the provincial budgets are severely limited. The provincial budgets have reported yearly deficits throughout the 1970s, and the recent (since 1975/76) increase in federal transfers reflects their worsening budgetary situation and increased reliance on federal funds at a time when the federal budget itself is under considerable strain. Primary Education /1 1.05 Primary education serves a total enrollment of more than 5 million, about half of the relevant age group (Table 1.1), 73% for boys and 33% for girls (Table 2.1). Sixty percent of total enrollment is located in Punjab (Table 1.2) while Baluchistan has only about 2%. In the five grades, girls comprise less than 30% of total enrollment, and in Baluchistan and NWFP the corresponding figure is only 17%. National enrollment declines from over 1.8 million in grade 1 to 0.7 million in grade 5. Primary schools are small; there are over 52,000 (one-third for girls) and the typical school has 100-110 students and 2-3 teachers. Eighty-five percent of schools are rural. Over 130,000 teachers are assigned to primary schools (Table 1.3). Two other types of primary education continue on a limited scale: Mosque schools /1 Other levels and types of education are described in a current Education Sector Memo, December 12, 1978. -3- where the Imam teaches children Islamic studies and the Holy Quran and Mohallah Schools where literate women in the local area teach girls the Holy Quran, Islamic studies and skills of home management. These schools which also serve out-of-school youth and adults, have been designated for added emphasis in an interim educational plan published in October 1978 (para 1.13). Table 1.1: OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRIMARY EDUCATION IN PAKISTAN, 1975/76 Male Female Total Population, 5-9 5,412,000 4,922,000 10,334,000 No. of primary schools 36,300 16,300 52,600 No. of primary school teachers 90,300 39,200 129,500 Teachers per school 2.5 2.4 2.5 Primary school enrollment 3,680,000 1,424,000 5,104,000 Enrollment/population, 5-9 68% 29% 49% Enrollment/school 101 87 97 Enrollment/teacher 41 36 39 Source: Pakistan Education Statistics, 1976. Table 1.2: ENROLLMENT IN PRIMARY SCHOOLS BY SEX AND PROVINCE, 1977/78 Punjab Sind Baluchistan NWFP Fed. Terr. Total Grade 1 Total ('000) 1,084 428 52 235 51 1,851 % Female 38 26 17 18 14 31 2 Total ('000) 830 319 32 153 40 1,373 % Female 34 26 16 16 10 29 3 Total ('000) 652 253 20 135 25 1,084 % Female 31 29 20 16 12 28 4 Total ('000) 530 206 14 120 22 892 % Female 29 32 14 16 14 27 5 Total ('000) 429 184 11 85 18 727 % Female 27 32 18 18 11 26 1-5 Total ('000) 3,525 1,390 128 728 155 5,927 % Female 39 28 17 17 12 29 Source: Fifth Five-Year Plan, Annexes PI-PXVIII. - 4 - 1.06 The primary school curriculum covers seven subjects in a 6 day, 26- hour school week: language, 8 hours; mathematics, science and Islamic studies, 4 hours each; and social studies, health and physical education, and art, 2-3 hours each. The curriculum does not sufficiently emphasize basic language and numeracy skills, which account for less than half of the total time, while the time devoted to health, physical education and arts roughly equals the time allocated to language. In practice, science and art are often neglected or eliminated because materials are in short supply and teachers are unable to teach the subject. There are many official and unofficial holidays, and the number of actual school days per year ranges between 120-130 compared to 150-180 days in other developing nations. Schools are often closed during inclement weather, or the many children in grades 1 and 2 are excused and their accommodations used by the few students in the upper grades. 1.07 Textbooks for each grade for four major subjects (Urdu, mathematics, social science and science) are developed and authorized by provincial text- book boards under general guidance from the federal authorities and purchased by pupils at prices ranging from PR 1 to PRs 4 per book. The costs of texts are borne by the pupil's family, except in Baluchistan where some free or subsidized textbooks are provided. On a given school day, about half the students are without textbooks, particularly serious in a system where instruc- tion is based on the textbook and where there are no other instructional materials. The content of texts has recently been revised, but in general texts do not make sufficient use of local or regional examples. No information is available on the educational achievement of those who do complete primary school. Table 1.3: ESTIMATED NUMBER OF PRIMARY TEACHERS B,Y SEX AND PROVINCE ('000), 1977/78 Punjab Sind Baluchistan NWFP Fed. Terr. Total Male 49.1 28.2 2.6 8.6 1.5 90.0 Female 26.3 9.5 0.5 3.0 0.7 40.0 Total 75.4 37.7 3.1 11.6 2.2 130.0 Source: Projections of 1974/75 data. 1.08 Management and supervision of primary education is provided by provincial education organizations through delegation of functions to division and district levels. In fact, the primary and secondary levels (grades 1-10) are linked under the term "school education" and are managed together. This results in overemphasis of grades 6-10 to the neglect of grades 1-5 since managers perceive the upper grades to have more prestige and importance. Grades 1-10 are under the control of a District Education Officer (DEO), usually male, but in a few districts there are two - one of each sex. The DEO is assisted by one or more deputies (DDEOs) and a larger number of male and - 5 - female assistant education officers (AEOs)./l The overall ratio of AEOs to teachers is about 1:250, but since AEOs also spend most of their time on secondary school matters, the nominal number of teachers per AEO at the primary level is at least 500 for the typical district and over 700 in some. With an average school size of two teachers, the typical AEO is expected to cover 250-350 schools, largely without transport: a reasonable ratio would be 25-40 schools each visited 5-8 times per year. As a result of these constraints, primary schools remain largely unsupervised. 1.09 Teacher training for primary education is conducted in one-year courses (Table 1.4). Primary teacher training is provided in 64 Teacher Training Institutes (TTIs) that have an average capacity of only 150 students and a combined output of about 12,000 p.a., less than 10% of the current stock of 130,000 teachers. Most TTIs are divided by sex, and less than one-third cater to females. As a result of inadequate overall capacity, about 14% of male teachers and nearly 25% of female teachers enter service without training; most of them are qualified by external examinations /2 while others are expected to take preservice training after a few years of experience (see Table 2.2). Facilities of the TTIs are also inadequate; there are often no laboratories, workshops or libraries, and almost no equipment or suitable furniture. A new curriculum for primary teacher training announced in 1976 divides a 48-week instructional year (33 hours per week) into 10 topic subjects and short and long-term practice teaching of 3 and 5-weeks' duration. Seven curricula cover methods of teaching the prin- cipal primary school subjects and the remaining three include principles of education, child development, and school and classroom organization and management. Although this new plan is an improvement over the previous curriculum, operation is marginal due to weaknesses in staff, facilities and equipment. Almost all TTI staff were prepared as secondary teachers; virtually none has ever taught in primary schools and many have not even taught in general secondary schools. As a result, they are unable to prepare their students for the physical conditions and pupil needs and behavior in primary schools. Staff often resort solely to lecture methods inappropriate for the type of teaching needed in primary schools. 1.10 Both preservice and in-service training need to be expanded and improved, and plans have been developed to cover population and enrollment growth and to reduce class size. However, they have been largely suspended because many trained teachers remain unemployed in urban areas and no way has been found of inducing them to accept posts in rural areas. Major shortcomings in the preservice training system include irrelevant curricula, poor teaching and inadequately motivated students, many of whom do not enter teaching after training. The Government plans to shift to a predominantly female primary /1 For example, for the 21 districts of the largest province, Punjab, there are 25 DEOs (4 female), 30 DDEOs (16 female) and 361 AEOs (110 female); the ratio of primary teachers to administrators varies from 79 in Lahore to 278 in Faisalabad, compared to the mean for the state of 184. /2 External examinations are expected to be phased out in accordance with the Credit Agreement of the Third Education Project (Cr. 678-PAK). -6- school training force: the present output of female teachers falls far short of anticipated demand, and the Government therefore intends to convert some male institutions to serve female enrollment. The supply of primary and middle school teachers, particularly for girls' schools and for rural areas, is expected to increase by 1980 as a result of Credit 678-PAK which will construct and equip 2,200 additional training places to expand capacity by 10% for males and 50% for females. Table 1.4: PRESERVICE PRIMARY TEACHER TRAINING, BY SEX AND PROVINCE; 1978 A. General Types, National Totals Entry Output No. of after per year Level Institution institutions grade (1978-80)(Est) Certificate Primary Teacher Training 64 10 12,000 Primary Teacher Institute (TTI) Certificate (PTC) B. By Sex and Province No. of Institutions Punjab Sind Baluchistan NWFP Fed. Terr. Total Male 19 11 4 5 39 Female 9 4 1 2 16 Both 3 2 0 0 4 9 Total 31 17 5 7 4 64 Source: "Directory of the Teacher Education Institutions in Pakistan," January 1978. 1.11 Opportunities for in-service training are limited and most teachers only receive preservice training. The void in in-service training for primary teachers is substantial in view of the large stock of teachers in each jurisdiction (Table 1.3). To provide in-service training, the Government created 17 centers to offer this type of training. The four provinces and the Federal Territories each have a center for secondary training, but there is no primary level center in Baluchistan. In addition, five general centers (one in Punjab and four in the Federal Territories) focus on curricula design and research. The Government now places special emphasis on in-service training in view of the introduction of new textbooks, a trend toward reorien- tation of the curricula and institution of a new curriculum for preservice education. There is also concern about the 25% of existing teachers who have had no preservice training. A program to provide all existing teachers with a short period of in-service training by 1980 was announced in 1977 using the centers mentioned above and a special corps of master trainers who would conduct training at the local level. This plan is being implemented slowly; however, it is not equal to the need to cover about 130,000 existing teachers and only about 10,000 have benefitted to date. This program is viewed as a -7- crash measure, since a continuing and recurrent training system is needed to handle at least one-third of the primary teachers each year. Staff and facilities used for preservice training should form a nucleus for in-service training. In-service training that is available also lacks quality and relevance. Instruction is given entirely by lectures conducted by staff who have no primary school experience. Daily sessions are long and do not retain the interest of trainees. No emphasis is given to the teachers' priority need for practical means to handle large multigrade classes in language and mathematics. Educational Plans 1.12 Under Pakistan's first four plans (1955-75), education spending has aimed at physical expansion of the system and quality improvement; however, the level of public spending on education has never risen above 2% of GNP, with primary education receiving a smaller share of the total education budget than secondary and higher levels (Table 1.5). Although there has been substantial expansion at all levels (see IBRD #2018-PAK, Table 15, p. 47), implementation has generally been unsatisfactory (except under the Second Plan), and important physical targets remain, for example, in primary education where enrollments have consistently fallen below targets (Table 1.5). Table 1.5: EDUCATION PLANS, TARGETS AND ACHIEVEMENTS AT THE PRIMARY LEVEL East and West Pakistan West Pakistan Only Interim Five-year plans: First Second Third Fourth 1-yr plan Fifth Ending years: 1960 1965 1970 1975 1976 1983 Total Male Female Allocation of educational expenditures by level (%) Primary 18 15 14 15 - 35 Secondary 27 17 21 18 - 28 Higher /a 37 39 46 45 - 25 Total for 3 levels lb 82 71 81 78 - 88 Primary enrollment Target: No. (million) 5.3 7.2 13.1 - 6.8 8.6 5.9 2.7 % of age group 49 60 70 - 67 68 90 45 Achievements: No.(million) 4.7 7.2 9.4 - 5.0 Plan in progress % of age group 42 45 50 - 49 % of target enrollment achieved 88 100 72 - 74 /a Higher refers to technical, college and university. /b Remainder includes expenditures for education outside the three major levels, such as nonformal, special education, administration and scholarships. - 8 - 1.13 The education policy of 1972 increased the emphasis on primary education; it set targets of universal education for boys by 1979 and for girls by 1984, but enrollments did not grow to meet these goals (Table 1.5). The Fifth Plan for 1978-83 established targets of universal enrollment of boys in grade 1 by 1982/83 and 90% enrollment in grades 1-5 by 1986/87; similar targets for girls were omitted, but the targeted 58% increase in enrollment over the five years demonstrates a clear intention to try to close the enrollment gap between boys and girls. The need for "extraordinary efforts," including compulsion, is mentioned. A similar policy was reiterated in an interim plan issued in October 1978, and a target date of 1992 was specified for universal primary education for girls. While the share of primary education in education development expenditure was below planned levels (averaging 13.2% for 1972-77), its share in recurrent expenditures increased from 30% to 45% between 1967 and 1977 and is projected to remain at 37% during the next five years (Table 1.6). The Fifth Plan allocations reflect this increased emphasis on primary education, with primary education spending exceeding the levels for secondary and higher education for the first time (Table 1.5). Development expenditure for primary education is increased, but at the same time the ratio between recurrent and development expenditures is improved. A special provision of the Plan would prevent funds allocated for primary and secondary education from transfer to other levels. The second focus of the Plan is consolidation and quality improvements at all levels. Overall, the level of education spending under the Plan would rise to 3.7% of GNP. The targets are ambitious for enrollments, school facilities, supplies of instructional materials, particularly in view of past experience in construction, cooperation from local communities and the low commitment of primary school teachers. Table 1.6: PRIMARY EDUCATION: SHARE OF TOTAL RECURRENT EXPENDITURES (%) 1947/48 1967/68 1972-77 1977/78 1982/83 Pakistan 41 30 45 39 37 Median for all LDCs 50 45 Sources: Pakistan: 1947-68: 4FYP, p. 153; 1972-83: 5FYP, Table 1, p.4; App. I. Comparative Data: IBRD Comparative Education Indicators. Bank Group Participation 1.14 Three IDA credits totalling US$27.5 million have been made to the education sector in Pakistan. These projects were mainly (71%) directed to postsecondary and higher education, and almost entirely (98%) to agricul- tural, technical and teacher education. The first two education projects (Cr 50-PAK, 1964 and Cr 206-PAK, 1970) provided US$8.5 million and US$4 million, respectively, to improve and expand postsecondary education (an agri- cultural university, industrial technician training and an engineering college). The Third Education Project (Cr 678-PAK, 1977) is providing - 9 - US$15 million to assist in expanding and improving: (a) middle and higher level agricultural education; and (b) general teacher training, particularly in rural areas and among females. All three projects have had implementation problems: shortages of local funds and problems with civil works contractors delayed the first two projects; and all three projects have had problems in utilization of technical assistance. 1.15 In addition to project activities the Bank has recently completed two major sector studies in education and related fields: The Education chapter of the April 1978 Population Planning and Social Services Report (Report No. 2018-PAK) and the December 1978 Education Sector Memorandum (Report 2303-PAK). 1.16 The Government and IDA have shared three objectives in assistance to education, namely, meeting manpower needs, improving quality and - more recently - increasing equity (for rural population and among females). The first objective, expansion of professional and technical education, was pursued through the First and Second Education Projects. The completion report of the First Education Project concluded that the project was producing manpower in excess of demand although project institutions operated at less than 60% capacity. Qualitatively, the investment in agricultural education (about 80% of the project) was successful, but little quality improvement took place in the technical institutes (20% of project total). The Second Education Project appears to be successfully meeting manpower needs, but qualitatively this project appears less successful: student/staff ratios are high, and staff quality has been insufficiently improved. It is still too early to determine the extent to which the objectives are being met in the Third Education Project. - 10 - 2. ISSUES IN PRIMARY EDUCATION Problems 2.01 Unequal Opportunity. During the period 1966-78, primary school enrollments expanded at an average annual rate of 4.8% to raise the overall enrollment ratio from 40% to 54%; however, substantial inequities in access exist by sex and region (Table 2.1). The lack of educational opportunities for girls is reflected in their low initial enrollment in primary schools (47% never enroll), and for rural people generally by the limited coverage of schooling in rural areas. Access is affected by the system of separate boys' and girls' schools outside most urban areas, which contributes to unequal school density (square miles per school) for males and females; for instance, female density in Sind and Baluchistan is only about 20% of male density, and for the nation as a whole, it is only 45% (Table 2.1). The unequal provision of facilities is reinforced by the unbalanced distribution of teachers, with a surplus of female teachers in some urban areas and shortages in neighboring rural schools. Table 2.1: INDICATORS OF ACCESS TO PRIMARY SCHOOLS BY SEX AND PROVINCE, 1977/78 Fed. Punjab Sind Baluchistan NWFP Terr. Total Enrollment ratios (%) Male 71 80 50 84 50 73 Female 39 35 11 18 7 33 Total 56 59 32 52 30 54 Students per school Male 121 98 56 129 81 111 Female 95 186 54 88 59 104 School density (sq mi per school) Male 4 5 71 6 7 8 Female 6+ 26 337 21 40 18 Male/Female (%) 62 20 21 30 18 45 Source: Fifth Five-Year Plan. - 11 - 2.02 Wastage. High dropout rates, contributing to overall low enrollment levels, show wide variation by sex. Between 1970 and 1975, about half the students who entered grade 1 dropped out before grade 5, ranging from 45% of all students in Sind and Punjab to 64% in Baluchistan (and for girls from 34% in Sind to 71% in Baluchistan). The highest dropout rate occurred between grades 1 and 2: 25% for boys and 40% for girls. Enrollment of boys in grade 1 in 1977/78 was actually above the total five-year old males (due to overage students), while enrollment of girls in grade 1 was only 53% of the female population. In Baluchistan and NWFP less than a third of five- year old females were enrolled: 230 and 300 in 1,000, respectively. Higher dropout rates in the lower grades means that classes in the lower grades are large (50-60 pupils) and classes in the upper grades are small (10-20 pupils), which leads to inefficient use of teachers. Most of the enrollment growth expected in the next decade due to reduced dropout could be covered by the present stock of teachers. 2.03 Low Quality. A critical factor in high dropout is the poor quality of instruction and resulting low learning achievement. In many schools, the physical conditions are so oppressive and discipline so harsh that attendance is discouraged and dropout induced. High rates of teacher absenteeism, a reflection of lax supervision, contribute to indifference among students. Teachers tend to be ineffective in covering the curriculum because they lack proper training (paras. 1.09-1.11) and have insufficient and inappropriate instructional materials. An important deterrent to effective teaching in small schools is the need for most instruction to take place in multigrade class groups, since preservice training does not prepare teachers adequately for this task. A conventional measure of school quality, the percentage of teachers with less than full training (Table 2.2), indicates significant variation by province and by sex. The consequences of poor quality together with low enrollments and heavy dropout mean that primary education does not adequately provide general literacy for the coming generation and nearly half of the money is spent on pupils who drop out before grade 4. Table 2.2: PERCENTAGE OF UNTRAINED TEACHERS BY SEX AND PROVINCE, 1973/74 Punjab Sind Baluchistan NWFP Male 13 15 20 16 Female 16 40 42 36 Source: "Teacher Education in Pakistan." 1977, Table 6. - 12 - 2.04 Qualitative problems were summarized in a recent statement by the Government: "About 60 percent of all primary schools in the country do not have accommodation which can meet the minimum requirements. There are many schools which do not have any accommodation at all and function in 'open air'. These schools continue to move from one location to another in search of shelter against severe heat, cold and rain. Female teachers are in short supply in rural areas, and teacher absenteeism is reported to be rampant. In many cases, teachers, particularly women, remain on the payroll of rural schools without ever going there. Many female teachers do not stay in rural areas because of the feeling of insecurity caused by the lack of covered accommodation for the school. Thus, there are many schools which remain without teachers and exist only in the official records. The administrative machinery, though fully aware of the situation in each area, does not adopt any corrective measures. The supervisory arrangements are not at all geared to offering any assistance or guidance to teachers on educational matters. Instead, the supervision/inspection is law-and-order oriented and is generally carried out in response to local complaints. Because of poor means of communication, absence of reasonable facilities of travelling and preoccupation of supervisory staff with such administrative responsibilities as disbursement of salaries, no system of school supervision seems to exist and no one knows what goes on in most of the schools."/1 2.05 Financial Constraints. A program to improve and expand primary education will clearly cost more. Although education is being given higher priority under the Fifth Plan than in the past, government spending for education, particularly at the primary level, is low and compares poorly to spending in other developing countries (Table 1.6). A major aim of the Fifth Plan (para 1.13) is universal primary education for boys by 1987, and under an interim plan (para 1.13), 1992 was set as the target for univeral primary education for girls. The budgetary allocation to primary education has therefore increased under the Fifth Plan from 15% to 35% of the total educational development budget (Table 1.5) , which should reverse the present trend of secondary and higher education expanding more rapidly than primary education. External assistance is expected to play an important role in maintaining the recently expressed focus on primary education. The stated educational objectives and priority, particularly to primary education with special emphasis on female participation, are sound (para 1.13). However, the achievement of targets depends on, inter alia, the Government's ability to resist socio-political pressure from middle and upper class families, which under previous plans resulted in funds allocated to the primary level being used to expand postprimary education. The Fifth Plan document therefore specifically prohibits transfer of the primary education budget to other uses. /1 The Fifth Five-Year Plan, para. 11, 1975. - 13 - 2.06 Even if sufficient development funds were provided for primary education, provincial governments might not be able to mobilize the resources needed to hire and pay additional teachers and to maintain facilities. For example, universal primary education of boys and 80% enrollment of girls by 2000 /1 would involve an enrollment of 20 million children, a fourfold increase over the present 5 million. Resources available to meet this need will also grow but almost certainly at a lower rate than enrollment. Thus without a significant change in the methods of delivery of primary education, costs would increase directly in proportion to enrollment, would consume a larger share of GNP, and would still not produce student output with literacy, numeracy or other attributes needed for development of the nation. Causes 2.07 The causes of inequitable access, high dropout and poor quality are complex. They involve multiple economic, social and educational factors which are interrelated. 2.08 Economic. Opportunity costs are a major factor in nonenrollment and especially in dropout. Child labor is prevalent among poor families and includes such tasks as working in the fields, drawing water, or attending other children in the home. School and crop calendars are not well synchro- nized, and a child who has to work in the fields may fall so far behind in his classwork that he drops out of school entirely. The direct cost of attendance is another cause of dropout, especially for children from large, poor families; although textbooks are relatively inexpensive, four books are needed per year, and they often wear out and need to be replaced before the school year is over. 2.09 Low levels of expenditure on primary education also contribute to low enrollment and poor quality. Many areas do not have the buildings necessary for organized teaching, but the shortage of teachers in rural areas is an even more serious problem. Teachers, particularly females, often prefer to remain unemployed in urban areas than to accept a rural position because of low salaries, lack of allowances and promotion possibilities, and inadequate housing in rural areas. In addition, inadequate spending on textbooks means that most schools lack needed teaching materials./2 2.10 Socio-cultural. Lack of parental support for primary education is another major reason for nonattendance in rural areas. Traditional parental attitudes favor protecting and educating girls at home, and the concept of schooling in a nonreligious setting (compared with the orthodox view of education by the Imam in a mosque) has not yet been fully accepted in many rural areas. Virtually all decisions about the school (e.g., location and appointment of teachers) are made without local participation adding to /1 Much less optimistic than the government targets (para. 2.05). /2 Studies in other Asian countries point to availability of teaching materials as a crucial determinant of learning achievement. - 14 - parents' impressions of impotence in matters of village school management. Moreover, the schools tend to be set apart from the local culture and the content of teaching programs is frequently irrelevant to the local environment. Some parents believe there is little monetary gain or social prestige attached to completion of primary school if it is not followed by attendance in middle school. The low priority given to primary education by the Government in the past helps confirm this attitude. 2.11 Educational. Reference has already been made to several educational factors involved in low quality and attendance, viz. lack of teachers in rural areas and inadequate supplies of teaching materials (paras. 2.03-2.04). The quality of teaching is also an important factor in educational attainment. Most teachers have received preservice training, but this deals with general pedagogical principles rather than problems of teaching in local schools. Teachers receive virtually no professional support from the education system (paras. 1.09-1.11). Supervisors seldom visit primary schools and instead deal almost exclusively with the secondary level and general administrative matters (para. 1.08). A Strategy for Primary Education 2.12 A strategy is needed for primary education to overcome the causes of inequitable access, low enrollments and poor quality. Since the causes are complex, the strategy to overcome them is necessarily complex. Moreover, since conditions vary among provinces, different strategies should be developed to take local conditions into account. The following paragraphs broadly outline the four possible components of a strategy to improve and expand rural education at the primary level. 2.13 Equal Opportunity. To improve enrollment coverage at feasible cost in rural areas, particularly for girls, the Government should: (a) undertake a program to increase the supply of teachers in rural areas through such measures as: (i) adjusting salary scales for teachers in rural areas; (ii) introducing allowances for "hardship" or transportation; (iii) modifying the career system to give experienced teachers opportunities for supervisory jobs; (iv) recruiting less qualified village women as teacher assistants in areas without teachers, and providing in-service training; and (v) providing housing accommodations for females; (b) provide school facilities at appropriate locations determined through systematic school mapping, and involve local communities in school building and maintenance. -15 - 2.14 Wastage. To increase at feasible costs the proportion of grade 5 completion among students who enroll initially in grade 1, the Government should: (a) introduce additional supervision at the local level; (b) encourage parental involvement in school management; (c) adapt the school calendar to cropping patterns; (d) experiment with providing direct incentives for attendance, such as free textbooks and meals; and (e) introduce education and orientation programs for parents to reduce the discontinuity between school and home. 2.15 Quality. To improve the attainment of basic education skills at feasible costs, the Government should: (a) provide systematic professional support for teachers, including regular in-service training and supervision; (b) provide effective administrative control to reduce absenteeism of teachers and pupils; (c) increase the supply of teaching materials for students and experi- ment with self-instructional materials; (d) introduce simple formative evaluation of student progress; (e) develop a bilingual curriculum using the local language as the medium of instruction during the first three grades; and (f) adapt curricula to local environments, by developing programs of a more practical nature that emphasize local needs and use local resources. 2.16 Costs. The purpose of these strategies is to improve and expand primary education without creating expenditures that cannot be met by the federal and provincial authorities. Since teacher salaries constitute the major part of recurrent primary education expenditures (over 98%), the financial feasibility of the overall strategy depends mainly on reducing the costs of teacher salary per student. Three approaches are possible: (a) increasing the number of students taught per teacher, by increasing class sizes or the number of class groups handled by each teacher;/l /1 Research in other Asian countries suggests that marginal increases in class size do not appear to affect achievement adversely. - 16 - (b) reducing salaries by recruiting less qualified teachers at lower rates of pay; and (c) moving toward larger schools to increase economies of scale and reduce the need for multiple grade teaching. These measures could be accompanied by steps to develop self-instructional materials and provide teachers with multi-class teaching techniques. The Government could also experiment with ways of reducing capital costs by constructing schools in areas of low school density (Table 2.1) and adding classrooms to existing schools in other areas. At present, the cost of constructing primary school facilities alone would prohibit any significant expansion in the number of schools. Low cost schools could be constructed using local materials and community self-help in constructing and maintaining buildings. Systematic school mapping could also reduce the buildings required to cover a given population. Together these approaches could help to reduce substantially the total cost of a primary school building program. 2.17 Expenditures to increase the quality of instruction could contri- bute indirectly (through reduced wastage) to a lower cost per graduate. A higher quality of instruction and increased local supervision would presumably lead to a lower dropout rate, which would result in better utilization of existing (teacher and building) resources and in fewer student-years of instruction per graduate. Expenditures on management and supervision could also contribute to improved quality through better teaching. - 17 - 3. THE PROJECT Objectives 3.01 The above overall strategy could be accomplished only in the long term and implementation should therefore be phased. The proposed project would constitute the first phase, namely experimentation to determine the best way of overcoming the major problems in primary education (paras. 2.01- 2.06). The proposed project would include the principal elements of the primary education strategy (paras. 2.12-2.17), and analysis of results should indicate which combinations of factors could be used most effectively on a national scale; however, restrictions on implementation capacity and financial resources and a need to keep the project at a manageable dimension do not permit inclusion of all items listed./l The proposed project would pursue four major objectives: (a) increased access to primary schools, especially for girls and for rural poverty groups; this would be sought by (i) providing school facilities and materials; (ii) providing more female teachers; and (iii) enhanced supervision intended to improve school-public relations and overcome parental indifference to enrollment; (b) reduced wastage, principally by reducing dropout and repetition, through improved facilities, materials and instruction, and super- vision (to reduce teacher absenteeism), and by working with parents and community leaders to avert dropout; (c) improved quality of instruction to attain higher and more lasting pupil achievement through (i) recurrent in-service teacher training in methods of teaching and classroom management designed to make better use of school time, and (ii) local, more frequent supervision. (d) reduced costs by reducing wastage inherent in dropout, introducing lower cost teachers, and moving toward larger class and school sizes. The project proposes a limited approach to these objectives: coverage is low enough to avoid large-scale investment in unproved approaches, yet large enough to provide statistically significant experimentation and research. The project would foster the development of local research capability by extensive involvement of local staff as project researchers in the experimen- tation and evaluation aspects of the project. Special training would be provided for this purpose. Local staff of universities and Institutes of Educational Research would thus gain expertise and experience to enable them to implement subsequent phases of a long-term improvement program. /1 Certain elements of the overall strategy (para. 2.13-2.15) were omitted to avoid undue risks, limit project dimensions and improve implementation; these include salary adjustments, school meals, bilingual curricula and self-help construction. - 18 - Content, Scope and Sequence 3.02 To attain its objectives, the proposed project would provide assistance to the central and provincial governments in four components to: - strengthen the teacher service, - expand supervision, - improve instructional materials, and - provide physical facilities. The most important elements in the project are teacher training and super- vision. Intensive and recurrent in-service training would be provided throughout the project period based on the hypothesis that more frequent and more practical training would improve teaching effectiveness. Improved supervision of primary schools and staff would be provided through the introduction of new primary school supervisors at two levels (supervisors and learning coordinators) below the district unit of government. This approach is based on the hypothesis that closer and more active supervision would result in less teacher absenteeism, improved teacher performance, and closer relationships among schools, parents and community. Additionally, the project would experiment with inter alia lower cost, locally recruited 'lassistant teachers"/l willing to serve in rural areas, larger class and school sizes, and low cost building design to control costs and performance; provision of instructional materials as a means of raising pupil achievement; and improved school-community-parent relationships to increase enrollment and reduce dropouts. 3.03 Overall, this first phase project would include more than 4,000 schools, nearly 10,000 teachers, and over 380,000 presently enrolled students and about 400,000 children who are not now enrolled, of whom over 70% are females. The project would be limited to rural areas; it would cover 7-8% of the nation's primary schools, teachers and enrolled children (Table 3.1 and Map IBRD 14055). However, the scope of project content and coverage would differ by province in order to: (a) concentrate project activities in the two most disadvantaged provinces in terms of opportunities for girls (Baluchi- stan and NWFP); and (b) provide for varying approaches to the components to be tested. Higher coverage in Baluchistan and NWFP would be necessary to assure adequate numbers of schools and teachers of both sexes for statisti- cally significant experimentation, to provide greater equity in distribution of educational resources and to permit the project to cover entire political subdivisions. /1 The term "assistant teacher" was chosen by the Government to denote a less qualified person not fully entitled to the designation of teacher. However, the performance of such personnel is often superior to that of "regular" teachers, because assistants are employed nearer home, have better rapport with pupils and parents and understanding of local needs and tradition, and are more appreciative of a chance for cash employment. - 19 - Table 3.1: COVERAGE OF THE PROJECT BY SEX AND PROVINCE, 1977/78 In Project Percentage of Total System Covered Punjab Sind Bal. NWFP Total Punjab Sind Bal. NWFP Total Districts 10 8 4 4 26 45 73 29 33 44 Pupils ('000) Male 120 20 28 100 268 5 2 26 17 7 Female 60 20 7 25 112 5 5 32 20 7 Total 180 40 35 125 380 5 3 27 17 7 Schools Boys' 1,200 200 477 855 2,732 6 2 26 18 8 Girls' 600 200 171 395 1,366 5 10 39 28 8 Total 1,800 400 648 1,250 4,098 6 3 28 21 8 Teachers Male 3,000 600 876 2,400 6,876 6 2 34 28 8 Female 1,500 600 324 600 3,024 6 6 65 20 8 Total 4,500 1,200 1,200 3,000 9,900 6 3 39 26 8 Sources: Total enrollment and number of schools on which percentages are based are from Fifth Five-Year Plan, 1977/78. Number of teachers estimated from 1975/76 data. 3.04 The project would be divided into three periods: (a) Preparatory. A period of about 20 months devoted primarily to selection and training of personnel, construction of physical facilities, and design of experiments. (b) Experimental School Years. Three school years beginning in March of 1981, 1982 and 1983 in which the impact of the project components would be measured and evaluated. (c) Analysis of Results. A follow-up period of six to nine months in which final experimental results would be analyzed and conclusions reached. Project Components Teacher Service (Proposed Outlay: US$4.6 million equivalent) /1 3.05 The proposed project would strengthen the teacher service by adding a new category of assistant teacher and providing a new pattern of in-service /1 This and subsequent statements of proposed outlays, exclude contingencies. Costs of experiments, transport, training, experts and salaries divided proportionately between the teacher service and supervision components (see Table 4.2). - 20 - teacher training. Assistance to the teacher service would be the largest project component in terms of number of participants -*d *ci a and the one considered most critical to achieving project objectives. 3.06 Assistant Teachers. The project would finance the salaries of 340 assistant teachers, recruited to teach in schools near their homes (often in the same village) to avoid housing problems. At least 190 (56%) would be female. They would have completed grade 8 or have acquired the equivalent achievement through independent study or experience. The assistant teacher positions would be created as a means of utilizing unemployed rural persons who would be familiar with the community and could teach near their homes; the use of these less qualified teaching staff represents a promising cost reducing factor and a means of supplying female teachers in rural areas. Special preservice training and recurrent in-service training would be provided. 3.07 In-Service Teacher Training. Two major improvements in in-service training of teachers are foreseen under the proposed project: (a) pattern: more frequent training (para. 3.08), and (b) content: more attention to teaching methods, classroom management and parent and community relations (para. 3.09). Training costs, and travel and subsistence allowances of teacher trainees would be financed under the project. A total of over 10,000 teachers and assistant teachers would receive training, divided among the provinces as follows: Numbers of Teachers % Punjab Sind Baluchistan NWFP Total female Existing teachers 4,500 1,200 1,200 3,000 9,900 31 Assistant teachers 100 100 100 40 340 56 3.08 A new pattern of training would be established to alleviate problems caused by the present inadequate pre- and in-service teacher training (paras. 1.11- 1.13). During the four project years, recurrent training would be provided as follows: (a) Annually: each teacher and assistant teacher would receive 2-3 weeks each year of intensive resident training on general topics conducted by project trainers (para. 3.18); and (b) Alternate Months: each teacher and assistant teacher would receive 2-3 days of training on common teaching problems organized by locally based supervisors (para. 3.13). 3.09 The training content would concentrate on subjects that are important to learning achievement, but are neglected in present preservice training, including (a) practical methods of teaching each major subject; (b) under- standing of the ways children learn; (c) effective management of multigrade classes; (d) parent and community relationships; and (e) ways to adapt the curriculum to the social and physical environment of the pupil. The training would include ways to instruct without resorting to harsh discipline and ways to deal effectively with parents and community leaders. - 21 - Supervision (Proposed Outlay: US$2.5 million equivalent) 3.10 The present system lacks adequate supervision at and below the district level, resulting in low teacher morale and performance, and a high level of absenteeism. The proposed project would aim to extend the system of supervision below the district level and would add new supervisory personnel. The proposed project would finance salaries and transport for new staff and training for all supervisory staff in the project areas. 3.11 The project would introduce supervision for primary schools below the district level of government by creating and providing salaries for two new posts, supervisor and learning coordinator, as follows: Present Pattern Proposed Pattern I District Education Officer I I District Education Officer I I Assistant Education Officerl I Assistant Education Officerl I Supervisor I Learning Coordinator I I Primary School I I Primary School I Ratios of new supervisory staff to schools would differ among the provinces: Table 3.2: RELATIONSHIPS AMONG SCHOOLS, SUPERVISORS AND LEARNING COORDINATORS, BY SEX AND PROVINCE Punjab Sind Baluchistan NWFP Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Number of: Supervisors 20 10 4 4 0 0 8 5 Learning coordi- nators (LCs) 200 100 20 20 40 23 40 23 Schools 1,200 600 200 200 477 171 855 395 Ratios: LCs per supervisor 10 10 5 5 - - 5 4+ Schools per LC 6 6 10 10 12 14 21 17 Schools per super- visor 60 60 50 50 - - 107 79 - 22 - These provincial differences would be used to measure the extent of coverage possible under varying population densities. The new supervisory positions, coupled with the position of assistant teacher, would create a five-step career ladder in primary education: assistant teacher, teacher, headmaster, learning coordinator and supervisor. 3.12 The new position of supervisor would be created in three /1 of the four provinces, and of learning coordinator in all provinces. Unlike the existing inspectorate, the work of staff in these new positions would be exclusively devoted to the primary level. Qualifications for supervisors would be five years' experience as a successful primary teacher and evidence of the leadership and counselling potential demanded by the position. Learning coordinators would be recruited among teachers with at least two years of successful teaching in primary schools who live in the immediate vicinity. 3.13 Learning coordinators would contribute to various aspects of the educational process and would be guided and assisted by the supervisors. They would support teaching staff, both by providing helpful supervision, and by organizing and conducting recurrent in-service teacher training. They would also provide classroom support by helping to develop teaching aids and by evaluating student achievement. Another function, to expand enrollment and improve attendance, would be achieved through individual counselling of children and parents, as well as through parental meetings that stress the value of school attendance. In a wider context, the learning coordinators would encourage community involvement by identifying ways in which the school could interact more effectively with the community, by conducting adult evening classes, and by initiating community self-help programs in education. The supervisors would support these efforts, and in addition would organize and conduct group training for learning coordinators and teachers, and provide a link between the new supervisory staff and existing officials. 3.14 The project would train all supervisory staff at and below the district level in counselling techniques, personnel leadership, teacher in-service training, and parent and community relationships (paras 3.17-3.19). Instructional Materials and Curricula (Proposed Outlay: US$1.1 million equivalent) 3.15 The project would provide financing for textbooks, teachers' guides, library books, and school and classroom equipment for project schools, as follows: /1 In Baluchistan, AEOs would be trained to perform the tasks of supervisors. - 23 - Books (for all provinces unless otherwise shown) Approx. Number Sets of textbooks for all project teachers 10,200 Sets of teachers' guides for all project schools 4,100 Textbooks for pupils Baluchistan: set for each pupil, new set each of three years (35,000 x 3) 105,000 NWFP: set for 10% of pupils, one year only 12,500 Library sets for each project school for supple- mentary reading 4,100 Equipment Approx. Number Standard set of general, agricultural, sports and social studies equipment 4,100 Equipment for in-service training facilities 10 This component would also include technical assistance and training to develop new and additional materials for trial in schools. Attention would also be given to modification of curricula in accord with local and provincial needs and culture (para. 2.12). Physical Facilities (Proposed Outlay: US$5.3 million equivalent) 3.16 The project would finance construction and furniture for classrooms, residences for female teachers, and small resource centers for in-service teacher education, as follows: Table 3.3: PHYSICAL FACILITIES BY SEX AND PROVINCE In-Service Housing for Training Center Classrooms female teachers (number) Province Male Female Total (pairs of quarters) Male Female Punjab 200 100 300 200 - - Sind 200 200 400 50 4 4 Baluchistan 20 44 64 18 1 1 NWFP 60 190 250 20 - - Total 480 534 1,014 288 5 5 Most classroom construction would be additions to existing schools rather than creation of new schools to achieve larger school size (para. 2.01). These project facilities would vary within each province to permit testing of enroll- ment, dropout and learning achievements under different conditions. The general impact of the construction component would be assessed by the effect of improved facilities on pupil enrollment, retention and achievement; on teacher attendance, performance and job satisfaction; and on community pride in schools under the experimentation program. - 24 - Staff Development and Research Training 3.17 The successful implementation of the four project components would depend largely on training received by project personnel. An extensive training program has therefore been developed to cover eight categories of personnel (Table 3.4). Table 3.4: NUMBER OF PERSONNEL REQUIRING TRAINING, BY SEX Category Male Female Total Project staff /a 22 8 30 Researcher 30 10 40 Project trainer 160 60 220 District Educational Administrator (DEO, AEO) 60 20 80 Supervisor 30 20 50 Learning coordinator 300 170 470 Teacher 6,900 3,000 9,900 Assistant teacher 150 190 340 Total 7,652 3,478 11,130 /a Para. 4.10 f.f. Training Method and Duration 3.18 The training program would be comprised of the following segments: - 25 - Table 3.5: CONTENT, NUMBER OF TRAINEES, LOCALE AND TIMING FOR SEGMENTS OF TRAINING Group or Approx. no. Duration segment Content of trainees Locale (months) A Training of selected 40 Overseas & 3 trainers, administrative national staff and researchers B Training of remainder of 260 National 3 project trainers, adminis- trative staff and researchers C-1 Training of supervisors 10,800 Provincial and teachers before and district 8 project begins in schools C-2 Recurrent training 10,800 District during experimental and below 36 school years of supervisors and teachers A cadre of about 220 male and female trainers recruited from teacher training institutes, high schools with teacher training sections, colleges and univer- sities, would comprise the major staff resource for the training program. About one-tenth of the project trainers would receive intensive local and overseas training (as part of segment A) to enable them to instruct the complement of the project trainers (under segment B). The project trainers would conduct initial training for all remaining project personnel (segment C-1) before the start of the first experimental school year (March 1981). Recurrent training (segment C-2) would be provided for teachers (para. 3.08) and supervisors during the three experimental school years. During this period, semi-annual or annual project seminars would continue the training of higher level and more specialized project personnel. Under the project, technical assistance would be provided to support the project trainers; project assistance would finance part of the trainers' salaries, as well as travel and per diem allowances. 3.19 Overseas training would be provided under segment A to allow key personnel to gain firsthand knowledge of successful primary systems elsewhere with special attention to curriculum development, teaching children from underprivileged homes in small schools with multigraded classes and interaction of teachers and supervisors in rural settings. The overseas training would take place in both developed and developing countries to promote observation of a wide range of approaches. These staff would then adapt effective practices - 26 - to needs in Pakistan and would promote their use in the subsequent training segments. Suitable composition of this group would thus be critical to the success of the training and therefore of the project. The following categories of personnel would be included in segment A: Table 3.6: COMPOSITION OF THE "SEGMENT A' GROUP SELECTED FOR TRAINING Category Approx. no. Rationale Project staff 6 Directors of Training (1 Fed, 4 Prov) District administrators 4 Familiarization with training (1 each prov) Involvement in training (1 each prov) Project trainers 25 1 in each major subject (language, math, science and social studies) from each province + reserve for specialties Researchers 5 Future research in training Total 40 The target female participation in this group would be at least 20%. Other criteria for selection would include: knowledge of and experience in the primary level of education; training experience; and facility in English. Experimentation and Evaluation 3.20 The central purpose of the proposed project is experimentation into the contribution of selected inputs to achievement of project objectives. Of particular importance are solutions to persistent problems in primary education in five areas: recruitment and retention of female teachers in rural areas; teacher absenteeism; teaching effectiveness; school, parent and community relations; and recurrent costs. The project would permit experimentation in each of these areas to answer the following five questions: (a) whether (i) provision of female teacher residences, and (ii) establishment of assistant teachers can aid recruitment of female teachers; (b) whether increased training of teachers results in improved pupil achievement; (c) whether improved supervision reduces teacher absenteeism; (d) whether increased contact between parents and teachers results in greater enrollment and less dropout (especially of girls); and - 27 - (e) whether per student costs can be reduced through use of teacher assistants and movement toward larger class and school sizes (para. 5.04). 3.21 Measurements to answer these questions can be divided into four categories: (a) data on population, enrollment, pupil and teacher attendance, dropouts and repetitions secured from schools through management channels and school mapping capability; (b) benchmark tests of pupil achievement and attitude, and tests of teacher knowledge and competence; (c) measures of perceptions and attitudes of parents and community members on education and schools; and (d) cost data (national, provincial and by district and school). In almost all cases the school would be the unit of measurement, but data could be aggregated to produce figures for tehsils and districts. Control schools (and perhaps tehsils) would be used for comparative purposes. During negotiations the Government provided assurances that it would prepare and send to IDA for comment (a) before the start of the first experimental school year a report on baseline measurements and results achieved; (b) detailed annual reports on results of project experimentation within four months of the end of each experimental school year; and (c) at the end of the second experimental school year a draft comprehensive proposal for the expansion and improvement of primary education based on the tentative results of the project. Technical Assistance and Studies 3.22 Technical assistance would be required for two project elements: (a) planning and organization of training, and (b) experimentation and evaluation. Altogether the technical assistance would include: (a) about 12 man-years of expatriate specialist services; and (b) about 50 man-years of local consultant services. The technical assistance would be divided into two phases. The first phase would include services required before the start of the first experimental school year (March 1981) and the second phase would comprise the remainder to the end of the project period (September 1984). To avoid delays experienced in earlier education projects, signing of a contract for first phase technical assistance would be a condition of effectiveness and signing of contract(s) for second phase specialist services would be concluded by December 31, 1980. Advisors in training and experimentation would work in teams to provide continuing assistance to lDcal staff. The majority of local technical assistance would be in experimentaLion and would involve staff of universities and education research institutes serving as project researchers. Some local technical assistance would be made available for planning and administration of training. Funds earmarked for the preparation of future education projects (US$0.3 million) would also be included in the project. - 28 - 4. PROJECT COSTS, FINANCING IMPLEMENTATION AND DISBURSEMENTS Cost of the Project 4.01 The estimated costs and foreign exchange component of the project are summarized in the following tables. Detailed estimates are given in the working papers. Table 4.1: SUMMARY OF PROJECT COSTS BY PROVINCE Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Province ---- (PRs millions) --- ---- (US$ millions) --- Punjab 33.3 7.8 41.1 3.4 0.8 4.1 Sind 20.5 7.5 28.1 2.1 0.8 2.8 Baluchistan 10.7 6.1 16.8 1.1 0.6 1.7 NWFP 15.5 5.6 21.1 1.6 0.6 2.1 Countrywide project items 7.2 11.7 19.0 0.7 1.2 1.9 Preparation of future projects 0.5 2.5 3.0 - 0.3 0.3 Baseline costs: 87.7 41.3 129.0 8.9 4.2 13.0 Contingencies: Physical 4.3 2.0 6.3 0.4 0.2 0.6 Price 25.1 9.9 34.9 2.6 1.0 3.6 Subtotal 29.4 11.9 41.2 3.0 1.2 4.2 Total Project Costs: 117.1 53.2 170.3 11.8 5.4 17.2 Note: Totals do not always equal sum of detailed figures due to rounding. - 29 - Table 4.2: SUMMARY OF PROJECT COSTS BY CATEGORY OF EXPENDITURE Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total ---- (PRs millions) --- ---- (US$ millions) --- Physical Structures Furniture 2.8 1.2 4.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 Buildings 38.9 9.7 48.6 3.9 1.0 4.9 Design services 0.8 0.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.1 Subtotal 42.5 11.0 53.5 4.3 1.1 5.4 Learning Materials Equipment 2.7 4.5 7.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 Books 1.6 2.4 4.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 Subtotal 4.3 6.9 11.2 0.5 0.7 1.1 Other Experiments 1.0 1.0 2.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 Transport 1.4 7.9 9.3 0.1 0.8 0.9 Training 11.1 3.8 14.9 1.1 0.4 1.5 Consultants 1.9 10.8 12.7 0.2 1.1 1.3 Salaries 25.5 0.0 25.5 2.6 0.0 2.6 Subtotal 40.9 23.5 64.4 4.1 2.4 6.5 Baseline costs: 87.7 41.3 129.0 8.9 4.2 13.0 Contingencies: 29.4 11.9 41.2 3.0 1.2 4.2 Total Project Cost: 117.1 53.2 170.3 11.8 5.4 17.2 Less customs duties and taxes: 0.6 0.6 Total Net Project Cost: 11.2 16.6 Note: Totals do not always equal sum of detailed figures due to rounding. About 64% of the physical structures and learning materials would be for class- rooms; 26% for residences; and the remaining 10% for resource centers. 4.02 Base Cost Estimates refer to February 1979 prices. Construction costs have been estimated on the basis of a detailed breakdown of Bills of Quantities for functional and simple buildings. Base costs range from US$6.5/sq ft for classrooms to US$13.00/sq ft (including site development) for the in-service training centers. Preliminary furniture and equipment lists and allocations for books have been prepared for the project. These were reviewed during negotiations and are reasonable in scope and costs. - 30 - Consultants' costs are estimated at US$75,000 per man-year for foreign consultants and US$6,000/man-year for local experts. Training cost estimates are based on detailed breakdowns of training requirements. Architectural design services are estimated at about 2% of construction cost. Cost of salaries is based on applicable Government scales of salaries plus allowances (range: $360-$5,500 per man-year). 4.03 Cost Per Pupil Place. Unit costs of facilities (net of professional services and contingencies) are shown in the following table: Table 4.3: AREA AND COST PER PLACE Gross area (sq ft) Cost in US$ per unit Primary Bank median (74-77) Boundary Furni- Equipt. schools for primary schools walls Bldgs. ture & books Total Classrooms 10.0 17.7 4 70 3 29 106 Housing 365 1,060 /a - 2,580 310 - 2,890 Teacher hostels 300 n.a. - 2,880 345 - 3,225 /a Refers to housing for any kind of teaching institution. The small area per pupil place is feasible because children normally sit on floor mats. As a result unit costs are low in comparison with other Bank- financed projects (median value for 1974-77 primary education projects: US$2231 pupil place). Furniture would only be provided in classrooms for adult group use in the Punjab. Housing and teacher hostels would be provided for female teachers in remote rural areas. 4.04 Estimated project costs include the following contingency allowances: (a) physical contingencies (US$0.6 million) estimated at 5% of base cost for unforseen factors; and (b) price contingencies (US$3.6 million) calculated on the base cost plus physical contingencies. These are based on the assumption that construction and procurement would start in March 1979 and take about 24 months, and local annual incremental cost through 1981 would be about 11%. Foreign annual incremental cost would be about 8% for construction and furniture and 7-1/2% for equipment and technical assistance. 4.05 The foreign exchange component is estimated at about US$5.4 mil- lion or about 31% of total project costs. This overall foreign exchange cost was derived from an analysis of the labor, materials and overhead contents of - 31 - civil works; estimation of the amount of equipment imported from overseas; and the foreign content of technical assistance. The resultant percentages amount to about 20% for civil works, 29% for furniture, 60% for equipment and books, 85% for transport, 85% for consultant services, 25% for training, 10% for design services, and zero for local salaries and honoraria for local experts. 4.06 Duties and Taxes. The local customs duties and taxes on civil works and locally procured furniture and equipment would amount to US$0.6 mil- lion or about 10% of the estimated cost of these items including contingencies. No customs duties are levied on directly imported educational equipment. Project Financing 4.07 The total project cost of US$17.2 million would be financed as follows: (a) the proposed IDA credit of US$10.0 million (60% of the total project cost net of taxes) would meet 100% of the foreign exchange costs and 39% of local costs; (b) the Government would finance the remaining costs of US$7.2 million. The pivot of the success of this project is the development of: (a) a functional primary education supervision network (para. 3.10-3.14); and (b) appropriate teaching staff for remote areas and for girls' education (para. 3.05-3.09). Therefore the project would finance 100% of training costs and salaries for three types of new posts (assistant teachers, learning coordinators and supervisors), which currently do not exist in the education system. Necessary salary structure revisions are expected to be carried out during the project period to permit the posts to become permanent features of the education system upon successful completion of the project. Details of the financial plan are given in Table 4.4. Local project cost financing would cover US$2.1 million for salaries and allowances, US$0.1 million for professional services related to civil works, US$1.8 million for technical assistance and experiments, and US$0.6 million for contingency allowances. Implementation 4.08 Administration. The first two IDA-financed projects in Pakistan (Credits 50-PAK and 206-PAK) suffered implementation delays of about eight and 3.5 years, respectively. Efforts in the Third Education Project (Credit 678-PAK) to strengthen implementation capacity and to avoid repe- tition of earlier delays have been partially successful: (i) revolving funds similar to the one established under the second education project (Cr. 206-PAK) were established to avoid delays caused by rupee shortages; (ii) the project director's training in a Bank-sponsored implementation seminar helped avoid delays caused under earlier projects by staff's unfamiliarity with IDA proce- dures; (iii) specific personnel in existing line agencies in two provinces was assigned to implement the project and provincial project implementation units were created in the other two provinces to coordinate project activities within each province; (iv) a Federal Project Coordinating Unit with linkages - 32 - Table 4.4: FINANCIAL PLAN Government of Item Pakistan IDA Total ----------- (US$ million) --- (a) Civil works and furniture 5.2 1.8 7.0 (b) Related professional services - 0.1 0.1 Equipment, transport and books (including those for the project unit) 1.1 1.4 2.5 Technical assistance: (a) Consultant services (incl. honoraria) - 1.5 1.5 (b) Training (local and overseas) - 1.9 1.9 Salaries of project personnel 0.5 2.8 3.3 Subtotal 6.8 9.5 0.9 Unallocated 0.4 0.5 0.9 Total 7.2 10.0 17.2 Less duties and taxes 0.6 - 0.6 Net project cost 6.6 10.0 16.6 to the Bureau of Educational Planning (BEP) was established to coordinate all aspects of the project; and (v) in an effort to avoid repetition of earlier delays experienced in the hiring of technical assistance, the signing of technical assistance contracts was made a condition of withdrawals for por- tions of the project. Despite the five month implementation delay experienced under the Third Education Project (Credit 678-PAK), there are indications that the above measures are helping to prevent problems experienced under the two first projects. 4.09 The proposed project would seek to build a permanent implementation capacity within the primary education subsector. At the federal level the BEP would be strengthened as follows: (a) the Director would assume overall project implementation responsibility; and (b) the BEP staff would be strength- ened with the introduction of the following training evaluation and research personnel: (i) three deputies in charge of training, research and operations; (ii) a director of works; (iii) an information officer; (iv) an accountant; and (v) four research officers. The BEP would work in close collaboration with the unit in charge of Credit 678-PAK and the services of a project archi- tect and a procurement officer would be shared between the two organizations. - 33 - The strengthened BEP would be responsible for coordinating the activities of all government agencies involved in this project and would implement future projects planned by the BEP. Its functions would, in particular, include the following: (a) coordination of the provincial project unit activities; (b) assistance to the provinces in designing, implementing and evaluat- ing training, research and experiments; (c) recruitment of specialists and administration of technical assist- ance agreements; (d) intensive information program aimed at disseminating project accomplishments outside and within the project; (e) supply of expertise to the provinces in experimental low cost school construction; (f) procurement under international competitive bidding (ICB) procedures and coordination of local procurement; (g) provision of timely and adequate flow of funds from the center to the provinces; (h) communications between the International Development Association (IDA) and the provincial units; and (i) preparation of claims for disbursements from the proceeds of the proposed credit and periodic reporting to IDA. 4.10 At the provincial level the proposed project would seek to streng- then implementation capacity with particular reference to training, research and evaluation activities. The provincial departments of education would be strengthened through the appointment of the following senior and professional implementation personnel (Table 4.5)/1: /1 See working papers for detailed job descriptions and organization charts. - 34 - Table 4.5: PROVINCIAL IMPLEMENTATION STAFFING PLAN /a Senior Staff (SS) and Professional Staff (PS) Area of responsibility Punjab Sind Baluchistan NWFP Total SS PS SS PS SS PS SS PS SS PS Director 1 1 1 1 4 Deputy 1 1 2 Training, Research & Evaluation 1 4 1 2 2 2 2 10 Architect 1 1 Total 2 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 9 10 /a See working papers for detailed job descriptions and organization charts. These staff would be located at the provincial capitals and have close liaison with the planning wings of each Department of Education. Generally, the four provincial planning units would: (a) organize selection of field personnel, (assistant teachers, teachers, learning coordinators and supervisors); (b) conduct pre- and in-service training courses; (c) organize (in collaboration with the FPU) all activities related to educational research, evaluation and experimentation; and (d) be responsible for procurement of civil works, local procurement of furniture and equipment and provision of architectural services. Accumulation of project implementation capacity is an important objective of the project and the provincial project units would therefore be established on a permanent basis to implement future primary education projects. The Project Director in each province would be a specialist in the field of education rather than in construction, because of the project's emphasis on training, experimentation and research in education. Assurances were obtained from the Government during negotiations that the FPU and the four provincial units would be: (a) staffed as shown in para. 4.09 and Table 4.5, and (b) maintained throughout the project period. 4.11 Training. Implementation of all training segments would be prin- cipal responsibility of training specialists of national and provincial planning units. Provincial project units would mount recruitment programs for all project personnel early in the preparatory phase in order to assemble, with FPU assistance and approval, all training groups before training is to begin (Table 3.5). Selection of trainees to be chosen nationally (project trainers and researchers) would be a joint responsibility of the FPU and provincial units. A separate contract has been arranged for training segments A, B and C-1 (Table 3.5). A major responsibility of the provinces will be the organization and conduct of segment C training before and during the opera- tional period. The field responsibility would be assigned to supervisors and learning coordinators assisted by project trainers, the provincial planning - 35 - units and specialists. 4.12 Research and Evaluation. Implementation of research and evaluation would also be a joint responsibility of the FPU and provincial planning units supplemented by project researchers and specialists. The research and evaluation sections of the planning units would have overall responsibility. Project research contracts are expected to be arranged with universities and Institutes of Educational Research. The Government has prepared a preliminary plan for experimentation and evaluation and developed a related plan for technical assistance. These plans will provide guidance to the units responsible for implementation. 4.13 Physical Design. The Government has prepared several experimental low costs designs for the project - some with Unesco assistance. The Public Works Department (PWD) in the various provinces is planning to construct a few pilot project schools in accordance with these designs. The scope for implementing these experimental, low-cost designs would, however, be limited because most of the construction would be minor extensions where the existing structures would dictate the appropriate design types. The FPU would request Unesco's regional office personnel from Bangkok to assist in further develop- ing the earlier prepared low cost and experimental designs. Preparation of tender documents, tendering and supervision would be done by the PWD in two provinces (Sind and NWFP). In the Punjab this would be done by the People's Work Program (PWP) and in Baluchistan these activities would be provided by the Department of Local Government. These agencies have been selected because of their specific manpower and administrative structures, which enable them to implement small-scale projects in large numbers. Minor supplemental architectural designs would be done with the assistance of local consultants. 4.14 School Location Planning. Criteria for selection of project schools were developed during appraisal utilizing school mapping procedures. Further refinements - primarily aimed at determining intraprovincial classroom distribution - have been carried out and practically all sites have been selected. Over 95% of the project schools are existing schools and the sites of these schools are generally considered suitable for extension. As a spin-off from the project, school location planning for nonproject schools would be conducted with financial assistance from Unicef. 4.15 Finance Implementation. Local funds (US$5.0 million) have been earmarked in the Government's current fiscal year (ending June 30, 1979) for implementation of the proposed project. Project preparation is generally in an advanced stage and the Government is anxious to start implementation without delay. Civil works contracts for project institutions signed after November 30, 1978 would be included in the proposed project, (advance con- tracting) but payments made against such contracts prior to the date of credit signing would not be eligible for reimbursement from the proceeds of the proposed credit. - 36 - 4.16 In order to facilitate timely preparatory work on training, evaluation and experimentation, the mission recommends that the Association provide retro- active financing of up to US$100,000. Such financing would cover 100% of expen- ditures for technical assistance incurred on or after January 31, 1979. 4.17 Budget allocations would be made available to the project on an annual basis in accordance with the Schedule of Expenditure shown in Table 4.6. In addition the financial requirements for the project would be reviewed regularly by the FPU to ensure that project implementation is not delayed because of lack of funds. During negotiations the Government agreed to: (a) furnish to the Association by March 1, of each year of implementation, an estimate of project funds required for the following fiscal year; and (b) to make the necessary funds available to ensure prompt project implementation. 4.18 Implementation Schedule. The preparatory period of the project started immediately after appraisal and is expected to be completed by March 1981 (para. 3.04). This period includes: (a) preservice training (para. 3.17-3.19) (b) preparatory work for evaluation and experimentation (para. 3.20-21); (c) all construction (para. 3.16) and (d) all equipment and materials procurement (para. 3.15). The main project period (36 months) would start in March 1981 and would include implementation of supervision (3.10-3.14); studies and evaluation (para. 3.20-3.21) and recurrent teacher training (para. 3.07-3.09)). The final project period (8 months) would start in early 1984 and would include final analysis of project results and recom- mendations for future development in the primary education subsector (para. 3.21). The overall project implementation is expected to take about 5-1/2 years and the project is expected to be completed by September 1984. The project implementation schedule is shown in Annex 2. Procurement 4.19 Construction of several schools would normally be tendered as one contract, but these are nevertheless not expected to exceed US$50,000 each. Previous experience with education projects in Pakistan indicates that the small size of the civil works and furniture contracts, the geographic dispersion of the sites and the competitiveness of the local construction industry would preclude any meaningful foreign competition in the bidding process. Contracts for civil works and furniture (totalling about US$5.5 million) would therefore be awarded on the basis of locally advertised competitive bidding in accordance with government procurement procedures in which foreign firms would be allowed to participate. Direct labor ("force account") by PWD and PWP would be used at about 20% of project sites - 37 - to test whether this construction mode is more economical than contract awards (about US$1.5 million). Self-help construction was not considered feasible because of prevailing community attitudes. Because of the small size of all civil works contracts, prior IDA review of civil works contract awards would not be required. During negotiations the Government confirmed that the distribution of primary schools would be in accord with agreed provincial distribution. 4.20 Equipment and vehicle contracts exceeding US$50,000 (in aggregate about US$0.7 million) would be awarded on the basis of international com- petitive bidding (ICB) in accordance with Bank procurement guidelines. Local manufacturers participating in the ICB would be given a preferential margin of 15% over competing imports, or the existing rate of import duties, which- ever is the lower. Contracts for equipment and vehicles which cannot reasonably be grouped in packages of US$50,000 (in aggregate about US$1.5 million) could be awarded without prior IDA review on the basis of competitive bidding advertised locally in accordance with local bidding procedures. Where competitive bidding is inappropriate, or is not expected to yield lower prices than local shopping, sundry equipment could be procured by soliciting at least three price quotations subject to maximum value of US$10,000 for each such contract and an aggregate total of US$250,000. Books (US$0.5 million including contingencies) would be procured in accordance with standard government procedures. Disbursements 4.21 The proposed credit of $10 million would cover 60% of the total project costs net of tax (100% of foreign exchange costs and 39% of local costs). Disbursements would be completed in about 5-1/2 years and would cover the following: (a) 100% of foreign expenditures for directly imported equipment, vehicles, and books; and 80% of local expenditures for goods procured locally; (b) 25% of local expenditures for civil works and furniture; (c) 100% of total expenditures for specialist services (including civil work design); training and fellowships; and (d) 100% of total expenditures (net of taxes) for salaries and allowances of assistant teachers, learning coordinators and supervisors. Any savings in the proposed credit would be cancelled on the Closing Date. Disbursement is expected to be completed by June 30, 1985. The estimated schedule of disbursements is shown in the following table: - 38 - Table 4.6: SCHEDULE OF EXPENDITURE AND DISBURSEMENT IBRD FY Expenditures Disbursement and Semester Cumulative Semester Cumulative semester -------- (US$ million) -------------- 1979 2nd 0.3 0.3 - - 1980 1st 1.2 1.5 0.1 0.1 2nd 1.4 2.9 0.1 0.2 1981 1st 2.8 5.7 0.3 0.5 2nd 2.4 8.1 0.5 1.0 1982 1st 1.8 9.9 1.1 2.1 2nd 1.8 11.7 1.2 3.3 1983 1st 1.1 12.8 1.1 4.4 2nd 1.0 13.8 1.0 5.4 1984 1st 1.0 14.8 1.0 6.4 2nd 1.0 15.8 1.0 7.4 1985 1st 0.9 16.7 1.3 8.7 2nd 0.5 17.2 1.3 10.0 4.22 Documentation. Since construction of a large number of small schools (about 1,000), salaries of a large number of individuals (860) and travel and per diem for 11,000 trainees are being financed in this project, special arrangements would be made for record keeping. The FPU would maintain a file for each project school receiving physical facilities available for inspection by IDA's progress review missions. Each file would include: (a) the completed educational/architectural brief; (b) the layout plans; (c) bids received; (d) bid analysis and contract recom- mendation and award; and (e) details of expenditures. Disbursements for civil works carried out by force account and by contracts of less than US$5,000 equivalent would be made against statements of expenditures prepared by PWD, PWP, or local government (total expenditure about US$2.0 million). Similarly, disbursements for local training and local salaries (including honoraria and allowances) would be made against statement of expenditures - 39 - prepared by the provincial project units (total about US$5.0 million expenditure). All statements of expenditures would be certified by the FPU; the documentation for which would be audited and retained for review by IDA supervision missions. All other disbursements would be made against full documentation. 4.23 Accounts and Audits. Assurances would be obtained from GOP that all agencies involved in project implementation would prepare and maintain separate accounts for the project in accordance with sound accounting practices. Such accounts, together with disbursement documents, would be audited annually by independent auditors acceptable to IDA. The FPU would consolidate the accounts from the various agencies and submit to IDA certified copies of the audited accounts together with the auditor's reports within six months of the end of each fiscal year. The audit report would include, inter alia, a statement verifying that funds disbursed by IDA against statements of expenditures had been used for the purpose for which they were provided. During negotiations the Government provided assurances that federal and provincial auditing procedures acceptable to IDA would be applied annually during implementation. 5. BENEFITS AND RISKS Benefits 5.01 The project is expected to lead to substantial improvements in primary education in terms of access, efficiency, learning achievements and cost reductions. In the project areas, access to primary schooling would be extended to about 15,000 male students and 30,000 females who would not have entered grade 1 without the project./l It is further expected that as a result of measures under the project, overall completion rates would be increased from 50% to 60% for initial male entrants and from 35% to 50% for females. Consequently, 40,000 males and 50,000 females would be expected to complete the full five-year primary cycle who would not have done so without the project. In other terms, in the project areas only about 35% of the males and 10% of the females in the relevant age groups would normally achieve literacy, but with the project, these figures are expected to be increased to roughly 45% and 25%, respectively. Improved attendance, coupled with better teaching, materials and facilities are also expected to contribute to improved learning achievements which would be measured periodically under the project. Overall, the gains for females are expected to be proportionately greater than for males in keeping with the emphasis of the project. Moreover, the project is expected to contribute to reduced unit costs (annual operating cost per student and costs per graduate) through the use of larger class and school sizes, and lower-paid assistant teachers. Even taking into account the increased cost of more intensive supervision, unit recurrent costs p.a. are expected to decrease on balance by 15-25%, or about PRs 20-35 per student. /1 The qualitative estimates of benefits under each objective are illustrative only since they required broad assumptions as proxies for essential data. In the experimentation under the project, baseline data would be collected on population, enrollment, retention and achievement to facilitate more adequate measurements. - 40 - 5.02 Though significant, these short-term benefits would be realized only in the project areas which constitute less than 10% of the primary education system. The fundamental justification for the project is the contribution it would make to finding solutions to the problems of primary education, which could then be applied over time to the 90% of the system not included in the project. Thus the project could eventually benefit the country as a whole through quality improvements and cost reductions in the delivery of primary education. For example, the projected 25-30% decrease in unit recurrent costs, if applied nationwide, would permit an expansion of enrollment coverage by the same proportions without an increase in expenditure. Ultimately, however, the success of the project must be measured by the benefits of primary education to the individual and the positive effects of literacy on society. Studies in other countries point to benefits of a more literate population in terms of higher agricultural productivity, greater acceptance of population control measures and lower fertility rates, and better understanding of nutrition and health measures. Risks 5.03 The project faces an implementation risk. The proposed program is complex, covering not only different components, but also a mix of approaches for each province. Three measures have been taken to minimize this risk: (a) federal and provincial planning units have been strengthened; (b) the design of the experimentation would be adapted as necessary to take into account the level of administrative resources that can be relied upon without sacrificing the fundamental aims of the experimentation; and (c) technical assistance would be provided for training and evaluation. The high degree of involvement of provincial and federal staff in preparing the project has helped to achieve broad local familiarity with its objectives and content, a factor which should lessen implementation problems. 5.04 There is also a risk that the impact of the project could be reduced because of noneducational factors. Poverty and other family influences could prevent increased school attendance and reductions in dropout despite the project inputs. The limited project measures may not be able to overcome traditional reluctance of rural parents to educate their children, particularly girls. To lessen this risk, a comprehensive training program would prepare project personnel, particularly supervisory staff, for involving parents and the community in the educational process so as to help change traditional attitudes. In short, although the risks under the project would be compara- tively high, the extent of the potential benefits are even greater and make the project worth implementing. 6. AGREEMENTS REACHED 6.01 During negotiations the Government provided assurances on the following subjects: distribution of civil works (para. 3.16); reports on results of baseline measures, annual reports on results and a comprehensive - 41 - plan for the development of primary education (para. 3.21); provision of technical assistance (para. 3.22); project unit staffing (paras. 4.09-4.10); provision of project funds (para. 4.17); and auditing procedures (para. 4.23). 6.02 Subject to the above conditions the proposed project constitutes a suitable basis of an IDA credit of US$10 million equivalent to the Islamic Republic of Pakistan for a term of fifty years including a ten year grace period. -42 - COMPARATIVE EDUCATION INDICATORS ANNEX I MARCH 1 , 1979 GNP/ G NP :% TOTAL:%( OF PUBLIC :PRI. :AV.PRI. : SEC :CAPITA: DEVOTED:PUBLIC EDUCATION :LITER- PRI. :COMPPLE- :STU- :SCH.TEACH:PROGRESS-: SEC. :STU- :HIGHIER: A T TO EDLI.: EXP. RECURRENT :ACY :ENROLL:TION :DENTS:SALARY IN:ION RATE :ENROLL:DENTSIENROLL: :MARKET- (PUBLIC:DEVOTED:EXP ALLOCATED: RATE :RATIO :RATE FOR:PER IRELATION :FROM PRI. ISATIO !PER IRATIO POP. :PRICES: EXP. TO) TO: :1% OF NET :PRI.SCH.:TEACH: TO GNP/ :TO SEC. NET :TEACH- GROSS: YR:MILLS.I (USS): ONLY) EOU. :PRI. SEC. HI. ADULTS): (5) :CYCLE(%):ER CAPITA : (%) :% ER % ADVANCED AUSTRIA 74 7S5F 4.870F 5.3Y 8.5EY 24Y 51Y 15Y 99 98 93D 26D 2.00 990 51D 190 16.859 CANADA 75 22.8 7,135 7.3 16.7 30 37 26 90 99 97 19 2.0 99 90 18 16.00 GERMANY F.REP.75 61.8 6,670 5.0 10.2 31EY 64.* 26EY 93) 90 99 23EY ... 99Y 84Y 22C 20.26Y JAPAN 75 111.6 4.450 4.30 20.78 4009 37UY IIUY 59 99D O9C 25 2.08B 990 95EV 20C 24.69Y NETHERLANDS 75 13.7 5,425 9.4 27.40D 21 39 25 99 95 95 29 2.0 97 s0 20 12.00 NEW ZEALAND 73 3.1F 4,280F 5.2 - 39 24 29 VS 99 99 26 .. 99 67 19 24.00 NORAIAY 76 4.0 9,043 7.2 11.4 54 24 15 09v 99 99 16 1.5 99E 62 11 11.00 SWEDEN 76 9.2 6.190 8.9 14.0 23 29 12 99j 99 99 16 9.. 0? 85C 13 30.00C U.N. 75 56.0 3,760 7.1 13.9 26 41 16 99i 99 ... 24 2.0 ... 68 17 2I.OOX U.S.A. 76 214.6 7,950 5.4 15.9 .. . 72-* 28 99E 99 99 22 .. . 99 93 19 24.00 S .1 RPE GREECE 76 9.1 2.590 2.9 10.4 37 28 21 065 99 620 31 2.0 70E 80 27 16.00 IRELAND 74 3.11 2,J90F 5.1 13.90 43Y 41Y 149 99 108KV 99A 35 . .. 95A 65XY 19 15.47Y PORTUGAL 75 9.6 1,570 4.4 17.8 52 27 13 70 98 55 21 3.0 70 29 14 7.60 ROMANIA 75 21.2 1.240 4.0 6.4 36 19 13 99i 101K ... 21 . .. 96 49 22 10.00 SPAIN 74 35.3F 2,750F 2.49 15.2A 49Y 22Y 15Y 94A 115XY . .. 35A ... . .. 76EV 30 17.68Y AFRICA ALGERIA 77 16.9 9900 7.5 14.3FY 42 ... 21 35 78X 45 39 4.0 55 26X 13 6.00 BENIN 74 3.lF 130F 7.2N 36.09 470 230 100 110 44XY 70B 53Y 25.08 436 lIXY 298 0.74Y B01TSWANA 76 0.7 410 4.0 19.2 53 20 14 3 72X 95 32 3.0 60 12 22 0.30 BURUNDI 74 3.7F 110F 2.5 19.90 47R 418 12R 10 200 30? 38 10.0 14 20 18 1.0 CANEROON 76 7.7 314 3.7 21.5 33 43 20 .. 60 45 52 4.0 2.0 90 24 0.900Y C.AR. 74 1.81 220F 3.00 17.20C 569 199 .. ... 79XY 25 699 ... 18 8KV 278Y 0.2tY CHAD 75 4.0 120 3.0 10.3 76 22 1.9i 29XBY 30 65BY 15.0 8 2X69 30 0.0)6Y CONGO(B) 74 1.3F 5101 6.0 19.3 40 32 21 507 1338 63 63 6.0 48 33X 22 3.40 EGYPT 76 39.2 310 5.9N. ... 30 32 25 44 75 80 31 . 79 45 20 12.00 ETHIOPIA 77 29.0 100 2.4 12.5 44' 31 14A 10 26 ... 50 .. . 63 8 38 . 0ABDN 74 0.5F 2,540F 5.00 20.60 250 90 110 .. 1009 250 46C 5.0 IBA 31Y 21C 0.29Y GA1,BIA 76 0.5 170 3.3 11.5 46 25 6 10 27 90 33 . . 92 13 25 GHANA 74 9.9F 590F . .. 19.7Y 43Y 22Y 20YQ . .. 6009 626 30Y . 146 35XY I6cV I .099 GUINEA 76 4.7 1801 4.3N0 .. 30 3 1 30 . .. 30K 64 45 12F 66 13X 26 4.00 IVORY COAST 76 7.0 610 6.8 23.1 33 46 13 SA 50 86 43 7.0 47 17XY 26 1.64Y KENYA 76 13.8 240 5.9 28.0 67 23 10 40 832? 60? 34 6.0 30 16 27 l.0 LESOTHO 75 1.2 180 12.OP 23.0 49~ 19 20 40 85 50 52 7.ON 81 10 26 1.00 L'8ERIA 75 1.9 410 2.4 13.2 27 15 20 7.i 58 ... 35 2.0 ... 12 26 l.10AY MADAGASCAR 74 B.8F 200F 3.2 22.1 51 24 25 4 0 680 30 53 15.0 48 9X 28 1.00 MALAWI 77 5.6 140 2.2 9.3 40' 17 22 29 56X 21 61 5.0 9 50 21 0.47 MAL! 75 5.7F 901 4.2M 33.91F 4SF 37F 193 lOP 2201 .. . 481 9.51 501 6X 21 .. S3AUAITANIA 71 1.3P 320P 4.1Y 20.OY I.9.. . ICA 17SF ... 22A ... ... 3XV 24A . MAURITInUS 76 O.9L 680 4.7 12.1 59 26 6 BOC 94 99 24 4.5 90 45 32 1.50 MOROCCO 78 18.2 540 8.1 15.2 399 489 139 2d 659 33 40 . .. 33 17X 22 4.00 NIGERIA 74 75.09 340F 4.10Y 24.2DY 239 16Y 424 . .. 49XY .. . 34DY .. ... 10KV 20CY 0.48Y RW~ANDA 73 4.1F l0oop 3.2C 28.00....... 23 52 . .. 51 ... .. 2 13 0.23CY SENEGAL 76 5.1 390 3.3 26.0 46 34 20 10 32 ... 49 10.0 20 10 21 1.5 SIERRA L.EONE 73 3.01 2001 3.4 23.4 31 38 30 157 34X 45 32 4.OE 68 13X 21 0.536Y SOSIALIA 75 3.2 110 3.70 10.89 49Q 16Q 193~ 507 34X 88 35 10.0 60 3 Is 0.10 SUDAN 76 15.9 290 4.5 19.9 40 36 18 20 34 74 33 3.8 33 14 24 1.24 SWAZIt.AND 75 0.5 470 3.89 - 39 31 19 50 73 71 38 3.8, 51 24 22 1.00 TANZANIA 76 15.1 180 6.8 17,4 42 21 12 130 930 81 49 6.6 6 4K 19 0.34 TUNISIA 73 5.6F 7309 6.3 23.4 37 43 18 US 72 81 41 6.0 31 14 21 3.00 UGANDA 75 11.6 230 3.4DY 15.7DY 34EY 40EY 22EY 2bA 53XY ... 34EY ... 14A BECY 21A D.56Y UPPER VOLTA 77 5.8 118 3.4 23.9 31 16 32 S,C 13 23 51 24.0 18 2 25 1.0 ZAIRE 76 25.8 140 6.0 22.0 49 26 25 15 86X 44 42X 2.0 41 13X 27 1.OOX ZANIBIA 76 5.1 440 6.9 15.1 54 22 22 39 97X 80 49 7.0 21 16 23 1.50 CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN BARBADOS 76 0.2 1,620 8.1 221 43 31 16 D93 1080 89 21 3.0 99 94X 17 .. COSTA RICA 75 2.0 960 5.29 22.7B 570 25B 123 h90 :0909 658 296 3.08 586 52EV 256 17.115Y CUBA 78 9.5 9,500 8.0 11.0.... .. O L 99 99 22 2.7 98 85 15 15.00 DOMINICAN REP.72 4.7F 7201 3.0 13.9 42 24 22 SI s0 17 54 3.00 63 13.5 24 7.00 EL SALVADOR 75 4.0 460 3.6 23.9 91 5 22 603 65C . .. 3909 .., 39 13XC 21CY 4.358Y GUATEMALA 73 6.3F 570F 1.9 16.0 55 23 14 43 64 26 35 3.0 89 8 25 4.09Y HAITI 76 4.7 200 1.0 8.0 81 21 lj 208 25F 13 56U 3.0 62 4 ... 0.7 HONDURAS 75 2.9 3900 4.2G 18.90 62G 15G 190 513 79 30 35 3.0 66 Il 17 4.00 JAMAICA 76 2.1 1,070 9.9 15.2 37 33 22 60E 91 52 39 4.5 94 64 25 7.58 MEXICO 75 59.9 1.050 3.109 12.O0Q 51Y 26Y 129 70 11209 31 46 3.0 63 35EY 23A 8.97EY NICARAGUA 74 2.3F 7001 2.5 14.2 61 13 13 57 65 21 37 2.0 93 17 24 7.00 TRINIDAD & T. 77 1.1 2,185 4,5 14.1 48 32 20 09 98 91 30 3.0 49 62 24 .. SOUTH3 AMERICA BOLIVIA 78 5.8 31SF 5.0 17.51'..... ... 38 178 290 24 59 .. . 46 18D BRAZIL 75 107.0 1,030 5.0 12.4 425 201 271 64A 860 ... 270CY . ... 26G 1509 6.006 CHILE 75 10,3 990 3.8RY 12.5R9 239 109 509 . .. 11909 . .. 359 . ... 48XY -. 16.55Y COLOMBIA 74 23.69 5801 3,309 21.20Y 4409 2209 11Y 73 10589 20 339 4.0 90 36EV 14A 6.67Y ECUADOR 75 7.1 690 3,70 27.7C ..... .. 102X9 . .. 38C .. , ... 38KY 14C . GUYANA 74 0.81 510F 5,8N 14.70 47 35 14 (33A, 92X 39 33 6.0 19 62X 24 1.00 PARAGUAY 74 2.81 590F 1.9 11.0 68 13 22 VI 82 28 30 1.9 65 17 12 5.00 PERU 75 15.4 760 4.2DY 21.70Y 40Y 229 159 72 IiiXY 38 39D9 3.0 70 4809 230Y 14.41Y URUGUAY 75 2.8, 1,300 2.5 15.3 49 34 20 94. 93X ... 24 ... 83 ... 10 .. VENEZUELA 73 12.0F 2,280F 4.6 19.9 300 280 359 7/A 81 ... 33 2.4 ..., 33 ,... 12.63CY - 43 - COMPARATIVE.EDUCATION,INDICATRS (CONTO) ANNEX 1 PAGE 2 MACH1,179 * .GNP/ % GNP :% TOTAL;% OF PUBLIC : PRI. IAV.PRI. : . SEC :CAPITA: DEVOTED:PUBLIC :EDUCATION :LITER- PAI. ICOMPLE- :STU-- :SCH.TEACH:PROGRESS-: SEC. :STU- :HIGHER: * AT I TO EDU.; EXP. RECURRENT :ACY :ENROLLITION :DENTS:SALARY 1N:ION RATE !ENROLL:DENTS!ENROLL: :MRE:(PUBLIC:OEVOTED:EXP ALLOCATED: RATE :RATTO :RATE FOR:PER :RELATION :FROM4 PR1. IAI PR:RATID POP. :PRICES: EXP. TO : TO: :(% OF NET :PRI.StH.ITEACHI TC GNP/ :TO SEC. NET :TEACH- GROSS: YR:MILLS.I (USS): ONLY) EDU. :PRI. SEC. HI.:AUU,TS): ()% :CYCLE(%):ER I CAPITA M 9 f%') :ER () ASIA AND OCEANIA AFGHANISTAN 77M 14.3 1600 l.A 11.6 47 19 15 12 299 AR 37 3.00 62 BR 17 1.00 BANGLADESH 73 78.6F 9SF 1.2 20.2 44Y 22Y 21Y 230 56X . .. 490 ... ... 23XD 28 CHINA(TAIWAN) 73 16S0F 93SF 3.2 14.0 28 4: 22 62 980 94 40 14.0 84 610 26 20.00C INDIA 75 609.1 140 2.6VY .. .. .... .29B 65XY -. . 43A ... . .. 29XY 20AY 2.34EY - INDONESIA 76 130.2 240 3.0 11.0 26 32 Is 6306 7OEX 43E 32E 2.0 52E 19EX 14IE 2.00 IRAN 73 33.4F 1IR6OF 3.3 12.6 506 lAB 129 65 7 7 74A 32 9.09 BOA 24 32 4.32CY IRAQ 75 11.1 1,250 6.70 16.3DR........ 26C 93XY ... 22 -. . .. 35XY 26C 8.47Y' JORDAN 73 2. 7F 46SF 7.0 9.9 52 IS 21 593 919 76 39 5.0 84 50x 22 4.00- KOREA 76 35.9 699 3.0 15.6Q 66 13 B 92F 1639 57 50 2.6 90 84 39 14.4 LEBANON 72 3.2F 1.07SF 3.5 16.0 39 40 IS 6.3 8S 65 19 2.0 63 26U 25 23.00 MALAYSIA 76 12.6 960 6.7 26.0 42 34 15 60C 95 93 32 .3.7 78 48 29 3.00 NEPAL 76 12.6F 11SF 1.1 11.0 29 20 41 IV 59 29 31 2.3 64 14 24 0.9 C51AN 72 0.BF 2.30SF 1.7N 3.8 96 - - 20 249 59 27F 7.0 ... 0,4X 9 . PAEIRTAN 79 69.2 6190 1.9 16.2 45 25 19 21 479 47X39o2.0 . .. 179 19 5.00 FAPUB N. 70 U. 7 .b6 16.1 _36 a 1 24 32 577 73P 3ll 111.0 90 Ml9 24 o .90? PHILIPPINES 74 42.2F 39SF 2.9 14.9 7 3 15 12 8) 1049 ... 34 19.0 ... 46X .. . 21.00 SINGAPORE 74 2.3F 2,450F 2.7Y 9.2Y 35Y 39Y i7Y 7!~A IO9XY 72A 31Y . .. ORA 44XY 24 7.68Y SYRIA 75 7.4 720 3.6 6.9 39 25 26 53 89 70 35 2.0 92 45 2 1 12.00 THAILAND 73 41.9F 35SF 4.0NF 2o.7F 65 9 19 92 879 630 32 3.0 Li 910 21X 24 2.00 TURREY 73 40.2F 90SF 9.9CY 20.60Y7... .. ..... ASY . .. 34Y . .. .. . 24Y 270Y 5.83Y YEMEN 73 5.9F 200F 0.5 4.0 45P 21P 23P IS 199 16 36 5.0 75 29 19 0.0587 YE-MEN P.0.R, 76 1.7 290 6.6 ... 57 28 B 23 899 46 30 5.0 94 21X 24 0.10 SUMMARY FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIESI NUMBER OF COUNTRIES: 94 90 88 98 85 87 95 74 95 69 77 94 91 84 RANGE: (0.5- (3.9- (25- (5- (2- (3- (14- (13- (19- (1.9- (7- (.4- (9- (.ol- 12.0 ) 33.0) 96 ) 47) 41) Sd) 133X) 99) 693 25.0 ) 99) 80 ) 39) 23.0) QUARTILES:UPPER I5.1 21.2 54 32 22 73 94 76 46 7 83 36 25 7.0 MEDIAN: 3.9 16.3 45 23 18 95 79 95 36 4 63 17 23 2.3 LOWKERI: 3.0 12.4 39 18 12 20 53 30 32 3 43 9 20 .9 SYMBOLS: ... DATUM UNAVAILABLE 9=1970 DR BEFORE M1=CURRENT PRICES SOURCES: - MAGNITUDE NIL DR NEGLIGIBLE 9=1971 N GOP---- 7 QUESTIONABLE 0=1972 P=INCLUDING FOREIGN AID COLUMNSIl AND 2 WORLD BANK ATLAS *INCLUDES PART-TIME STUDENTS 0=1973 .J=CENTRAL GOVT. ONL.Y OR 19R0 MISSIONS *.COMBINED WITH PRIMARY E=1974 6-MINISTRY OF EDUCATION (MOE) ONLY 3 TO 14 1990 MISSIONS **UNDER REVIEW F=1975 S-MOE A1N0 STATE GOVT. ONLY AND/OR UNESCO G=1976 I EXCLUDING CENTRAL GOVT. STATISTICAL UI-PUSLIC ONLY YEARBOOKR V=INCLUDING PRIVATE EXPENDITURE X.INCLUDING OVERAGED STUDENTS Y=UNESCO SOURCES COMPARATIVE EDUCATION DATA ARE USEFUL IN THE EVALUATION OF VARIOUD, EDUCATION SYSTEMS AND ANALYSIS OF RELATIVE STAGES OF EDUCATIONAL DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN VAR10US COUNTRIES. HDWEVER,ON THE BASIS O- 11,L PRESENT DATA,CROSS-NATIONAL COMIPARISON SHOULD BE APPROACHED WITH GREAT CAUTION. DATA PRESENTED IN THE A50VE TABLE HAVE BEEN COLLECJED LARGELY BY THE BANK MVISSIONS PROM GOVERNMENT SOURCES; THE REMAINDER ARE STAFF ESTIMATES OR DATA FROM UNESCO. EFFORTS HAVEU LEN MlADE TO STANDARDIZE DEFINITIONS AND WITHIN LIMITS, TO CHECK THE ACCURACY OF THE DATA. NEVERTHELESS,SUCH DATA ARE STILL IMPER ELU !N SEVERAL RESPECTS AND THE BANK IS WORKING TO IMPROVE THEM PROGRESSIVELY ON THE OCCASEON OF ITS OPERATIONAL 5099K. IN THL USE OP THESE DATA, THE FOLLOWING QUALIFICATIONS SHOULD BE BORNE SN MIND: (1)`EDUCATION' AS DEFINED IN THE TABLE INCLUDES ALL EDJCAT IDN AND TRAINING, FORMAL AND NON-FORMAL; (2)'PRIMARY EDUCATION REFERS TO EDUCATION AT THE FIRST LLVEL AND `SECONDARY" EDUCATION REFERS TO ALL EDUCATION AT THE SECONDARY LEVEL REGARDLESS OF TYPE (E.G. GENERAL. TECHNICAL, AGRICULiURAL) (3)`LITERACY RATES"(COL.6) ARE OFTEN OQTAINED FR0M COUNTRY ULNSUSES. IN MANYCOUNTRIES THEY ARE ONLY APPROXIMATIONS AND IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT ANY UNIFOlIM DEFINITION OF "LITERATE" HAS U~Lt, FO,LLOSED CONSISTENTLY: (4('PUBLIC EXPENDITURE IN EDUCATI0N`(COLS.3,4 AND 5) REPLY 1-1 ALL CAPITAL AND RECURRENT EXPENDITURES DEVOTED TO EDUCATION By PUBLIC AND QUASI-PUBLIC AGENCIES: (5)'ENROLLMENT RATIDS"(COLS 7, 12 AND 14) REFER TO SCHOOL YEAR AND MEAN THE PERCENTAGE OF ELIGIBLE CHILDREN ENROLLED FULL-TIME IN THE APPROPRIATE SCHOOL, PUBLIC AND PRIVATE ST LEVEL. THLY ARE OFTEN SUBJECT TO A WIDE MARGIN OF ERROR IN THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES OWING TO VARIATION IN THE ACCURACY OF BASIC DATS)I.E. AGE-SPECIFIC POPULATION AND ENROLLMENTS). ENROLLMENT FIGURES FREQUENTLY ARE HIGHER THAN THE NUMBER OF STUDENTS ACTUA.LY IN SCHOOL. OVERAGED STUDENTS WHOSE INCLUSION IS INDICATED BY FOOTNOTES ALSO CAN INFLATE THE RAT1OS. 04 ----4--….4... 4) ~~-- --- -- ----- -4- - 4 0¸4~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ - II ----- -Q - - - - - - - - - -- - ~ ~ ~ ~ - - 8 O - -- - - - I…Th----~~~~~~~~~- 009 -- ---------- I -~~~~~~~~~~~~ - - - - -- -- - --- - - - - - ---- ---- --- - - - - - - - - - - - -- - --04- -4 - - 0- 04 - ~~~~~~~~~~~-- - - ____~~~~~~~~~~~-- -- pi- -z : -N - ZIIIfl-- -- t I~~~~~-- - - - - - - - -- - -- - - - - - - V. ----- :--- -- - * 4) 4444 4.4 - C~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ --- - - - - -- - --. - --4 -4 a - 4 - 0-- . - - - - -- - - - - - - -- - - - -z I -44 - -- - - - - - - - - * - - - - - -- - - - t-- - a 44s. -- -- 4-44 -4 --- 0 - 0 --4- 0-4--4 - - --- - -- -)44 0 - 4 - -- - -- - - 40. -.4--- - - 0- 0- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - --- - - u 0 5~~~~.4 0 .44040 44444' 4f a0 .44 000 04 - 444 .4 45044 o 440 4404 444-44444 44 444 4 (t< 4< . 4 *~~ X" 4-040404 04 44 4404 041 44 .~~44 4I4 444 4-4..I 4444 14 44 44 14 04)4404 -,4 0 4444140 I 44 .I 4 4041 '-0 1 44- 04 I44 4. I - 4-4 .4 5 14-40- ~ '1 0 4 4 0- 4 ~~~440 440 4~~~~~ VX O< 5 m 0El 44444 I 4 4 0 44 4 3 44 .10 .4 C 4 - , 0 4 4 ,,9I u 4 44 -44 ~ - 45 - ANNEX 3 Page 1 PAKISTAN PRIMARY EDUCATION PROJECT Selected Documents and Data Available in the Project File A. General Reports, Studies and Data Collections Ministry of Education and Provincial Coordination A-l "The Education Policy 1972-1980" (March 1972). A-2 "A Review of Implementation of Educational Reforms" (May 8, 1976). A-3 "Detailed Curricula for PTC and CT Programs" (1976). Bureau of Educational Planning and Management, Ministry of Education A-4 "Pakistan Education Statistics - 1947-48 to 1972-73" (1973). A-5 "Pakistan Education Statistics - 1970-71 to 1975-76" (1976). A-6 "Pakistan Education 1974: A Sector Assessment" (October 1974). A-7 "Primary Education in the Rural Villages of Pakistan, 1976-77" (2 vols.), (January 1977), by Saeed Ullah Shah and J.N. Eastmond. A-8 "Design Considerations for Construction of Rural Primary Schools" (April 1977), by Kalim A. Siddiqui, Saeed Ullah Shah, and Jefferson N. Eastmond. A-9 "Strategy for Upgrading Primary Education in Pakistan" (April 1977) by Jefferson N. Eastmond. A-10 "Determining Pupil Participation through School Mapping Procedures" (1977), by Shahid Iqbal and Jefferson N. Eastmond. A-11 National Education Policy (Salient Features)(October 1978). "Major Trends in Education" (September 1977). Planning Division, President's Secretariat, Education Section A-12 "Review of Achievements of 1976-77 and Annual Development Plan for 1977-78". - 46 - ANNEX 3 Page 2 Planning Commission A-13 "Manpower and Educational Requirements of Pakistan, 1961-90" (March 1970), by Kaare Ruud. A-14 "The Fifth Plan 1977-83", Vols. I and II (June 1977). A-15 "The Fifth Five Year Plan 1978-83", Sectors on "Education and Training" and "Rural Development" (June 1978). People's Open University A-16 "In-servize Elementary Teacher Education" (1974). Government of the Punjab, Education Department A-17 "Primary Education Management" (July 27, 1977)(mimeo), by Feroza Yasmin and Ali Shabbar Kazmi. University of the Punjab, Institute of Educational Research A-18 "A Study on Teachers in W. Pakistan (1970)." A-19 "An Analytical Study of Dropout Factors in Primary Schools of the Punjab," by Study Group and Anwar Hussain (December 1972). A-20 "An Analysis of Ten-Year Old Illiterates" (undated) by Study Group with Dr. Mrs. Shirin Khan. Unesco A-21 "Pakistan: Education for Rural Development" (2 vols) (June 1974). United States Agency for International Development A-22 "Analysis of 1974 Pakistan Education Sector Assessment," by Nathan Kravetz (January 1975). A-23 "Pakistan: Primary Education Development," by Nathan Kravetz, Arthur J. Lewis and Richard E. Speagle (September 1975). World Bank A-24 "Pakistan: Development Issues and Policies" (2 volumes), Report No. 1924-PAK (April 7, 1978). A-25 "Development and Utilization of Human Resources in Pakistan" (Draft, April 1977). A-26 "Educational Issues in Pakistan: A Sector MIemorandum," by John Simmons and Philip Brock (Draft, August 1977). - 47 - ANNEX 3 Page 3 A-27 "Pakistan: Operational Implications of Adopting Basic Needs Targets" (Draft by Shahid Javed Burki, Norman Hicks and Mahbub ul Haq, November 15, 1977). A-28 "Appraisal of Educational Projects in Pakistan," Report No. TO-397a, March 10, 1964. A-29 "The Islamic Republic of Pakistan: Appraisal of a Third Education Project," Report No. 905b-PAK, January 11, 1977. A-30 "Pakistan - First Education Project - Credit 50-PAK - Project Completion Report," July 14, 1977. A-31 Education Sector Memorandum (December 1978) Books A-32 "Primary Education and National Development," by Rodney Osberg (Stockholm: Almquist and Wiksell, 1973). A-33 "Education in Pakistan," by Ishtiaq Husain (Karachi:MA'AREF, Ltd. 1975). B. Reports and Studies Related to the Project B-I "Pakistan: Primary Education," Project Paper: Proposal and Recommendations for the Review of the Loan Committee (September 20, 1977). B-2 Preappraisal Report, IDA (April 1978). B-3 Aide Memoire, IDA Appraisal Mission (September 1978). B-4 Plans for Training, Experimentation and Education, British Council (December 1978). C. Working Papers and Tables C-1 Set of Working Papers I IBRD 14055 r dii 63- !6 S. s . R.( JANLARY 1979 PAKISTAN CH I NA Proposed Primary Education Project i PROJECT COVERAGE BY DISTRICT * _ r36- - //1/ ''\ 36° TYPES OF SCHOOLS / l .6 GIRLS BOYS I)- 1O O% 100% 40-50% 40-50% /rsdes ?/ 25% ' 25 it,1 7...>..App-o-nste me rf \\- 13% //,,, 1% s< A bb.tabac 1)_strict boundarmes - - ?rocncr,oI boundraries bad _. _ r tcIrrtaion,,l boundaries << d~~~~~ . os~ad' 32' 0 3V~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 10 20 0 0 I5Eb EP Ol 'na llaeo IS' I N A IAA I. R° 1-AN of thr rreaers of the report to which it ,s attached. rThe dro, mein S useed and ther tf t , hcundaenosshcertnonttio mapdccot inply.no thegait of theWorld Rank and ito /eeEN\ts Arabian Sna l, fattilietrs. eltc /cdgment on toe legal statcnJ nf any teritor or 0 any ertdorfstfn t or. a c c e p t a n c c i of uch ao0nd a r iec 6 8 - g 0 _ 0 4 0 0 dii fig~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ IL TER