For more information, visit http://www.worldbank.org/prospects November 18, 2016 Taking Stock U.S. weekly jobless claims fell to a 43-year low, retail sales rose, and industrial production was flat in October. U.S. jobless claims dropped by 19,000 to 235,000 in the week ended November 12---their lowest level since November 1973, signaling increasingly tighter labor market conditions. Separately, following September’s 1.0 percent (m/m) increase, U.S. retail sales rose 0.8 percent (m/m) in October, more than expected, helped by strong auto sales. Industrial production growth was flat in October, below market expectations but an improvement over September’s contraction (Figure 1). Modest increases in manufacturing and mining output were offset by a steep fall in utility production. At her testimony to Congress, U.S. Fed chair, Janet Yellen, noted that the incoming data was consistent with the Fed’s expectation of strengthening growth and an improving labor market, adding that a rate increase could “become appropriate relatively soon.” Euro Area GDP growth held steady in Q3, industrial production slowed, and inflation picked up in October. The second reading of Euro Area GDP growth in Q3 came in at 0.3 percent (q/q, sa), in line with expectations and the same pace as in Q2 (Figure 2). Industrial production grew by 1.2 percent (y/y) in September, less than August’s 1.8 percent increase, reflecting a decline in Germany’s industrial sector activity. Meanwhile, inflation in the Euro Area was confirmed at 0.5 percent (y/y) in October, the highest reading since June 2014, reflecting smaller declines in energy prices and rising costs of services. Core inflation remained at 0.8 percent for the third consecutive month. China’s industrial production growth was steady in October, retail sales slowed. China’s indicators of economic activity were mixed in October. Industrial production growth came in at 6.1 percent (y/y, sa), the same as in September, but below market expectations. Retails sales grew 10.0 percent (y/y), below the 10.7 percent growth recorded in September, owing in part to weaker automobile sales. Fixed asset investment rose 8.3 percent (y/y) in October, from 8.2 percent in September, supported by an increase in private sector investment growth. Outflows from emerging-market bond funds deepened. Emerging-market (EM) dedicated bond and stock funds faced record outflows in the week ending November 17, as investor sentiment toward EM assets remained negative. EM bond fund outflows reached a record high of $6.6 billion, driven in part by institutional investors. Angola’s inflation rate reached 40 percent in October. Consumer price inflation in Angola, a large oil exporter, edged up from 39.4 percent (y/y) in September to 40.0 percent in October, reflecting deep currency depreciations due to the decline in oil revenues. Figure 1 U.S. Industrial production growth was flat in October, Figure 2 Euro Area GDP growth remained steady in Q3. but an improvement over September’s contraction. U.S. Industrial production Euro Area GDP growth Index, 2012=100 Percent, quarter-over-quarter 107 1.0 106 105 0.0 104 -1.0 103 2016Q3 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 Jan-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Apr-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Source: Haver Analytics. Source: Haver Analytics. Produced by DECPG. Number 326 | November 18, 2016 Weekly Insight: Why Are Some Policy Interest Rates Negative? A number of central banks have employed negative interest rate policies (NIRP) over the past few years, mainly to stabilize inflation and support growth. A number of central banks have employed negative interest rate policies over the past four years. The European Central Bank (ECB), Danmarks Nationalbank (DNB), Swiss National Bank (SNB), Swedish Riksbank, Bank of Japan (BoJ), and Central Bank of Hungary (MNB) have pushed key policy rates---mainly the deposit rates on excess commercial bank reserves---below zero percent in recent years (Figure 3). At present, economies with negative interest rate policies account for one-fourth of world GDP. In conjunction with the implementation of NIRP, yields on a sizable class of sovereign bonds in some of these countries have fallen into negative territory. The main motivation for the implementation of NIRP by the ECB, BoJ, Riksbank and MNB was to stabilize inflation expectations and support growth. The ECB first introduced a negative interest rate on its deposit facility in June 2014, and undertook additional cuts through March 2016, as it continued to confront persistent downside risks to growth and declining inflation expectations (Figure 4). For similar reasons, in July 2014, the Riksbank also cut its deposit rate below zero, and, in February 2015, it brought its main refinancing rate to negative territory. Amid weak growth and inflation prospects, the BoJ and MNB introduced NIRP in January and March 2016, respectively. For the central banks of Switzerland and Denmark, an immediate motivation for the introduction of NIRP was to respond to currency appreciation and capital inflow pressures . In Switzerland, to stem capital inflows and maintain the exchange rate cap against the euro, the SNB announced its intention to lower its deposit rate below zero in December 2014, before abandoning the exchange rate cap and further cutting its main policy rate in January 2015. The DNB maintains its currency within a narrow band around the euro. The DNB initially set its deposit rate below zero in July 2012, in response to rising capital inflows amid heightened financial stress in the euro area. The deposit rate returned to positive territory in April 2014, but was cut again to below zero in September 2014, following the ECB’s decision to implement negative interest rates. Figure 3 A number of central banks have employed negative Figure 4 The decision to implement NIRP partly reflected declining interest rate policies over the past several years. inflation forecasts. Policy interest rates Inflation forecasts Percent 3 Latest Jan-16 Jan-15 2 1 0 -1 Switzerland Japan Euro Area Denmark Hungary Sweden Sources: National central banks and European Central Bank. Policy Sources: Consensus Economics and World Bank. Inflation forecasts for rates are: Euro Area (overnight deposit facility); Sweden (repo rate); 2016 over time. Last observation is June 2016. Japan (current account deposi); Switzerland (three-months LIBOR); Denmark ( one-week certificate of deposit); Hungary( overnight deposit). Produced by DECPG. Number 326 | November 18, 2016 Major Data Releases (Percent change y-o-y) (Percent change y-o-y) Recent releases: Fri, 11 November - Thu, 17 November 2016 Upcoming releases: Fri, 18 November - Thu, 24 November 2016 Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous Hong Kong 11/11/16 GDP Q3 1.9 1.6 1.7 Thailand 11/20/16 GDP Q3 3.5 Japan 11/13/16 GDP Q3 2.2 0.9 0.7 Malaysia 11/22/16 CPI OCT 1.5 Germany 11/15/16 GDP Q3 1.5 1.8 1.8 South Africa 11/23/16 CPI OCT 6.1 Czech Republic 11/15/16 GDP Q2 1.9 2.6 Mexico 11/23/16 GDP Q3 2.5 Portugal 11/15/16 GDP Q3 1.6 1.0 0.9 Germany 11/24/16 GDP Q3 1.8 Philippines 11/16/16 GDP Q3 7.1 6.8 7.0 Japan 11/24/16 CPI OCT -0.5 Activity and Inflation (Percent change y-o-y, except quarterly data on industrial production, which are percent change q-o-q, annualized) 2015 2016 2015 2016 2014 2015 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep 1 Industrial Production, sa World 3.2 1.9 1.6 1.2 2.1 2.5 1.5 0.8 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.5 2.2 1.8 Advanced Economies 2.0 0.5 -1.4 0.2 -0.1 2.0 -0.2 -1.3 0.2 -1.1 -0.9 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4 0.6 0.2 Emerging Market and Developing Economies 4.5 3.4 4.6 2.3 4.3 3.1 3.3 2.9 3.5 3.9 3.7 3.1 3.7 4.1 3.4 3.8 3.5 Commodity-exporting EMDE 0.0 -0.3 1.2 0.6 1.6 - -0.1 -1.4 0.2 1.7 -0.6 -0.8 0.5 1.9 1.8 1.0 - Other EMDE 6.8 5.1 6.0 3.0 5.3 3.3 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.7 5.5 4.8 5.0 5.0 4.0 4.7 4.5 East Asia and Pacific 7.5 5.8 7.7 3.4 7.1 5.6 5.8 5.3 5.5 5.5 6.3 5.5 6.0 6.1 6.0 6.4 5.5 East Asia excl. China 3.0 3.6 5.9 4.3 3.6 5.2 4.3 2.0 5.5 5.5 3.2 2.0 5.7 6.5 6.0 6.3 2.0 Europe and Central Asia 2.7 0.5 4.3 1.2 0.3 -4.0 1.6 1.2 1.6 3.1 1.5 2.4 2.2 1.8 -0.4 1.5 0.1 Latin America and Caribbean -0.7 -3.2 -6.6 -2.9 0.7 -0.5 -5.2 -4.5 -4.3 -4.9 -4.4 -4.3 -3.6 -2.1 -2.6 -2.8 -1.8 Middle East and North Africa 0.8 2.6 9.7 2.2 -3.4 - 4.9 2.2 6.6 7.0 2.6 1.9 2.3 3.2 4.4 - - South Asia 2.6 4.2 -7.1 4.6 5.5 -7.0 -1.3 0.9 0.2 3.4 2.5 -0.4 1.6 3.1 -2.0 -1.8 0.3 Sub-Saharan Africa -0.1 0.1 -1.3 1.5 8.3 -5.7 -1.3 0.2 -0.8 1.5 -1.3 2.3 4.1 4.3 1.5 0.0 0.2 Inflation, sa 2 World 2.1 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.3 Advanced Economies 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 Emerging Market and Developing Economies 3.3 2.5 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.4 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.9 Commodity-exporting EMDE 3.7 3.7 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.9 3.3 3.5 Other EMDE 2.9 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.8 1.8 1.2 1.3 0.9 1.1 East Asia and Pacific 3.2 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.6 2.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 2.1 1.8 1.9 1.7 2.2 Europe and Central Asia 1.6 1.7 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 1.2 0.5 0.5 Latin America and Caribbean 3.4 2.7 2.3 2.7 3.5 3.0 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 2.9 2.9 3.0 Middle East and North Africa 2.7 1.9 1.8 2.5 2.3 2.3 1.7 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.6 South Asia 6.8 3.5 3.0 3.5 4.8 4.8 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.6 4.0 4.4 5.0 5.6 5.4 4.5 4.4 Sub-Saharan Africa 4.4 3.8 4.1 4.5 5.1 6.0 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.7 3.7 4.7 6.0 6.1 6.3 1 Industrial production is total production (may exclude construction). When data are unavailable, "industral production, manufacturing" and "industrial production, manufacturing, non-durable manufacturing, petroleum and coal products, crude petrolem products" are used as proxies 2 Median inflation rate for each grouping. Trade and Finance (Percent change y-o-y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q-o-q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period) 2015 2016 2015 2016 2014 2015 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Sep Exports, Nominal, US$, sa World 1.1 -11.6 -6.1 -12.1 14.7 -1.4 -11.1 -10.1 -11.9 -9.0 -3.5 -2.7 -2.9 -3.8 -6.6 2.6 -1.0 Advanced Economies 1.2 -11.3 -7.1 -5.1 15.5 -1.9 -9.8 -9.9 -9.3 -4.0 -3.5 -0.3 -0.7 -2.3 -5.5 4.9 0.8 Emerging Market and Developing Economies 0.8 -12.0 -4.5 -22.6 13.2 -0.7 -13.1 -10.3 -16.0 -16.3 -3.7 -6.6 -6.6 -6.2 -8.3 -1.2 -4.0 Commodity-exporting EMDE -4.8 -24.4 -12.3 -24.8 19.8 4.4 -23.4 -21.1 -24.9 -13.5 -15.5 -13.5 -10.7 -11.6 -13.8 0.1 0.2 Other EMDE 4.9 -3.8 -0.3 -20.0 10.9 -2.3 -6.8 -3.9 -11.1 -17.1 4.5 -2.3 -3.8 -2.4 -5.0 -0.9 -4.8 East Asia and Pacific 4.6 -3.5 -0.6 -24.0 12.4 -2.1 -7.9 -4.2 -13.2 -20.5 6.1 -3.7 -5.1 -4.4 -6.1 -1.0 -6.4 Europe and Central Asia -0.9 -20.7 -8.1 -20.2 21.5 0.4 -17.7 -14.7 -22.1 -13.0 -13.1 -8.2 -10.4 -3.9 -8.6 1.5 -0.9 Latin America and Caribbean -1.0 -12.0 -8.6 -6.6 5.4 5.9 -11.8 -11.6 -11.6 -4.1 -9.2 -5.4 -2.1 -8.1 -7.5 2.1 2.2 Middle East and North Africa -5.1 -26.3 -7.7 - - - -24.1 -22.1 -23.2 - - - - - - - - South Asia 4.0 -4.8 7.4 5.8 3.7 -38.3 -8.9 -5.4 -3.1 4.2 -0.3 0.9 -0.4 5.3 -4.0 -11.9 -6.8 Sub-Saharan Africa -6.5 -28.8 -18.2 -27.8 - - -28.1 -28.3 -27.5 -22.9 -19.7 -13.4 - - - - - Imports, Nominal, US$, sa World 1.2 -12.6 -6.5 -14.0 10.1 -2.2 -10.3 -11.2 -11.7 -5.3 -7.5 -6.0 -2.4 -5.3 -10.0 1.3 -1.6 Advanced Economies 2.1 -12.5 -6.6 -9.3 8.2 -4.3 -8.9 -11.2 -9.7 -2.7 -6.7 -4.0 -1.9 -4.7 -8.6 1.0 -1.9 Emerging Market and Developing Economies -0.4 -12.8 -6.1 -21.4 14.2 2.2 -12.7 -11.1 -15.1 -9.8 -8.8 -9.2 -3.1 -5.9 -12.1 2.2 -0.6 Commodity-exporting EMDE -2.5 -14.9 -11.6 -18.9 -0.5 - -15.8 -17.4 -18.3 -15.7 -14.1 -14.1 -9.6 -8.6 -16.4 -1.8 - Other EMDE 0.8 -11.5 -3.0 -24.0 19.6 2.1 -11.0 -7.5 -13.2 -6.8 -6.4 -7.6 -0.7 -5.4 -11.3 3.7 0.4 East Asia and Pacific -0.5 -13.1 -0.6 -28.8 24.5 3.8 -8.7 -8.4 -16.7 -11.1 -5.3 -8.2 0.8 -6.5 -10.9 5.5 -0.4 Europe and Central Asia -3.7 -20.7 -9.5 3.6 11.8 -4.9 -18.5 -18.0 -14.8 -5.1 -3.6 -3.1 -1.4 1.0 -10.4 7.8 2.5 Latin America and Caribbean -0.7 -9.9 -13.5 -16.2 3.9 3.7 -11.0 -15.7 -16.3 -9.9 -14.6 -9.9 -6.2 -8.9 -16.1 1.3 -2.6 Middle East and North Africa 2.9 -6.3 -4.4 - - - -11.7 -10.1 -13.0 - - - - - - - - South Asia 1.1 -13.2 -13.4 -29.2 2.4 13.8 -25.1 -3.3 -6.8 -3.5 -18.8 -18.7 -9.3 -7.0 -14.7 -9.6 0.9 Sub-Saharan Africa 2.0 -7.3 -8.7 - - - -9.7 -11.5 -18.8 - - - - - - - - 1 International Reserves, US$ World -1.3 -5.8 -2.7 0.7 0.9 0.4 -1.9 -0.8 -0.9 0.5 1.0 0.7 -0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.3 Advanced Economies 0.1 0.6 -1.1 3.7 1.7 1.3 -1.7 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.0 -0.6 1.4 0.5 0.1 1.0 Emerging Market and Developing Economies -2.1 -9.9 -3.6 -1.1 0.4 -0.2 -2.1 -1.7 -1.9 0.1 0.8 0.6 -0.8 0.6 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 Commodity-exporting EMDE -7.0 -11.3 -2.1 -1.0 -0.1 - -1.6 -0.1 -1.7 0.2 0.6 0.3 -0.8 0.4 0.6 - - Other EMDE 0.7 -9.1 -4.4 -1.2 0.7 -0.4 -2.3 -2.5 -2.1 0.0 0.9 0.7 -0.8 0.7 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 East Asia and Pacific 0.2 -11.3 -4.4 -1.8 0.3 -0.8 -2.3 -2.5 -2.5 0.0 0.7 0.5 -1.0 0.9 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 Europe and Central Asia -16.7 -6.3 -3.7 4.0 2.8 1.8 -2.0 -1.6 0.6 1.9 1.4 1.6 -0.1 1.4 0.4 0.5 0.9 Latin America and Caribbean 0.1 -5.3 -1.5 0.1 0.6 1.6 -1.3 0.0 -0.6 0.1 0.7 0.8 -0.2 -0.1 1.6 -0.1 -0.1 Middle East and North Africa -2.7 -16.9 -3.7 -3.4 - - -2.3 -0.7 -2.7 -0.6 -0.2 -0.5 - - - - - South Asia 11.3 11.7 1.3 1.0 1.6 3.2 -0.4 0.8 -1.1 -0.2 2.3 2.0 -0.8 0.4 1.8 0.6 1.4 Sub-Saharan Africa -9.6 -11.9 -0.1 -2.1 - - -0.4 -0.7 -1.5 -1.5 1.0 0.4 -1.6 - - - - 1 Total reserves excluding gold are used as proxies when total reserves data are unavailable. Produced by DECPG. Number 326 | November 18, 2016 Financial Markets 2015 2016 2015 2016 MRV 1 2014 2015 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Interest rates and LIBOR (percent) U.S. Fed Funds Effective 0.09 0.13 0.16 0.37 0.37 0.39 0.24 0.36 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.36 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.41 0.41 ECB repo 0.16 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 US$ LIBOR 3-months 0.23 0.32 0.41 0.62 0.64 0.79 0.54 0.62 0.62 0.63 0.63 0.65 0.65 0.70 0.81 0.85 0.88 0.91 EURIBOR 3-months 0.06 -0.02 -0.09 -0.19 -0.26 -0.30 -0.13 -0.15 -0.18 -0.23 -0.25 -0.26 -0.27 -0.29 -0.30 -0.30 -0.31 -0.31 US 10-yr Treasury yield 2.53 2.12 2.18 1.92 1.75 1.56 2.23 2.11 1.77 1.88 1.79 1.80 1.64 1.48 1.56 1.63 1.74 2.18 German Bund, 10 yr 1.24 0.54 0.56 0.32 0.12 -0.07 0.59 0.51 0.23 0.21 0.17 0.16 0.01 -0.09 -0.07 -0.05 0.03 0.32 Spreads (basis points) JP Morgan Emerging Markets 330 426 431 478 419 372 442 485 507 443 421 418 418 387 367 361 357 388 Asia 206 232 245 264 227 197 253 268 282 243 224 223 233 210 190 191 192 208 Europe 287 348 311 339 305 282 308 338 359 319 308 305 303 290 282 273 274 303 Latin America & Caribbean 407 559 577 645 551 477 595 662 687 588 559 552 541 496 473 463 453 498 Middle East 388 471 506 555 538 508 512 542 580 545 539 530 545 540 492 493 487 478 Africa 323 449 509 626 548 461 555 644 661 573 546 552 546 494 448 440 441 456 Stock Indices (end of period) Global (MSCI) 417 399 399 395 399 418 399 375 372 395 403 403 399 414 417 418 413 410 Advanced Economies ($ Index) 1710 1663 1663 1638 1653 1726 1663 1562 1547 1638 1671 1675 1653 1713 1720 1726 1697 1698 United States (S&P 500) 2059 2044 2044 2051 2099 2168 2044 1940 1932 2051 2065 2097 2099 2170 2171 2168 2139 2177 Europe (S&P Euro 350) 1401 1474 1474 1352 1339 1388 1474 1381 1347 1352 1379 1399 1339 1376 1390 1388 1377 1373 Japan (Nikkei 225) 16292 16292 18817 16555 15576 16450 18817 17518 15989 16555 16407 17235 15576 16556 16887 16450 17050 17792 Emerging Market and Developing Economies (MSCI) 956 794 794 821 834 903 794 742 740 821 840 807 834 879 894 903 908 847 EM Asia 457 404 404 404 407 448 404 374 369 404 405 400 407 431 442 448 444 418 EM Europe 297 244 244 272 265 273 244 237 241 272 288 268 265 264 269 273 274 265 EM Europe & Middle East 257 211 211 230 225 233 211 202 208 230 243 225 225 227 232 233 232 224 EM Latin America & Caribbean 2728 1830 1830 2121 2269 2381 1830 1744 1804 2121 2292 2038 2269 2359 2402 2381 2608 2288 Exchange Rates (LCU / USD) Advanced Economies Euro Area 0.75 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.89 0.90 0.92 0.92 0.90 0.90 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.90 0.89 0.89 0.91 0.93 Japan 105.89 121.00 121.41 115.23 107.96 102.36 121.62 118.37 114.44 112.87 109.57 108.97 105.34 104.09 101.31 101.69 103.72 109.03 Emerging and Developing Economies Brazil 2.35 3.33 3.84 3.91 3.51 3.25 3.87 4.06 3.97 3.70 3.56 3.54 3.42 3.28 3.21 3.25 3.18 3.43 China 6.16 6.29 6.39 6.54 6.53 6.67 6.45 6.57 6.55 6.51 6.48 6.53 6.59 6.68 6.65 6.67 6.74 6.86 Egypt 7.08 7.70 7.88 8.04 8.87 8.87 7.83 7.83 7.82 8.47 8.87 8.86 8.87 8.87 8.87 8.88 9.25 15.38 India 61.03 64.14 65.91 67.50 66.91 66.94 66.54 67.31 68.22 66.95 66.49 66.93 67.29 67.18 66.91 66.74 66.73 67.74 Russia 38.58 61.34 66.17 74.84 65.84 64.61 70.19 77.36 77.23 69.93 66.54 65.96 65.01 64.43 64.93 64.48 62.57 64.26 South Africa 10.85 12.77 14.22 15.83 15.01 14.07 15.04 16.30 15.79 15.39 14.62 15.36 15.05 14.40 13.79 14.01 13.92 14.20 Memo: U.S. nominal effective rate (index) 102.2 114.7 118.1 120.3 117.5 118.4 119.4 121.8 120.7 118.4 116.5 117.8 118.2 118.9 117.8 118.6 119.7 123.4 1 MRV = Most Recent Value. Commodity Prices 2015 2016 2015 2016 MRV 1 2014 2015 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Energy 2 118 65 54 43 56 57 48 40 41 47 51 57 59 57 58 58 64 68 Non-energy 2 97 82 78 76 81 82 76 75 76 78 80 81 83 82 82 81 81 81 Agriculture 2 103 89 86 85 91 91 85 84 84 86 88 91 94 92 91 90 89 89 Metals and minerals 2 88 68 60 59 62 65 57 56 59 62 63 61 61 65 65 64 65 70 Memo items: Crude oil, average ($/bbl) 96 51 42 33 45 45 37 30 31 37 41 46 48 44 45 45 49 43 Gold ($/toz) 1266 1161 1107 1181 1260 1334 1076 1098 1200 1245 1242 1261 1276 1337 1340 1327 1266 1224 Baltic Dry Index 1103 711 627 363 613 736 510 391 307 390 608 623 608 707 675 826 870 1065 Source: World Bank, World Bank Commodities Price Data (The Pink Sheet), Bloomberg 1 MRV = Most Recent Value. 2 Indexes, 2010 = 100. Produced by DECPG. Number 326 | November 18, 2016