ROUND 5 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING SEPT 2020 Publication Date BACKGROUND NIGERIA In April 2020, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), with support from the World Bank, launched the COVID- 19 National Longitudinal Phone Survey (NLPS); a monthly survey of a nationally representative sample of 1,950 households to monitor the socioeconomic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and other shocks. The first round (baseline) of the survey was conducted in April/May 2020, during which a federally mandated lockdown was in full effect. The fifth round was conducted between September 7-21, 2020. The most important innovation in the fifth round was to collect employment information from up to six working- age individuals (15-64 years) in the household rather than just the main respondent, allowing for more detailed individual-level analysis of people’s working situation. In particular, these new data make it possible to (1) verify the trends from previous rounds that were based only on one respondent, (2) report statistics on overall work- ing situation and unemployment, and (3) look at differences in labor market characteristics according to key indi- vidual characteristics including gender and education. In principle, the interviewers sought to speak directly with each working-age individual in the household, but in practice, information was collected by proxy – through the main respondent in the household – in 61% of cases. This brief presents the findings from the fifth round of the Nigeria COVID-19 NLPS, focusing in particular on people’s working situation to exploit these innovations to the questionnaire. SUMMARY  The share of survey respondents who are working to 26% in September 2020 largely at the expense of has stabilized at 85%, close to the pre-COVID level. services and industry: this was mainly driven by  The share of Nigerians aged 15-64 who are working women, those with lower levels of education, and remains slightly lower than before the crisis, at 71% those in poor households. in September 2020 compared with 77% in July/  The overall share of working Nigerians engaged in August 2018. Women and youth have had a slower agriculture remained fairly constant between July/ recovery. August 2018 and September 2020 at around 48%,  The crisis may potentially be entrenching pre- although Nigerians with higher levels of education existing labor market gender inequality: in July/ appear to have switched into agriculture, potentially August 2018, 83% of working-age men and 72% of implying that labor is being misallocated as the crisis working-age women were working, but these shares advances. dropped to 78% and 65% respectively by September  The share of people who are working fell across the 2020. consumption distribution, but there was a relatively  The share of working Nigerians engaged in com- large decline for individuals in the lowest consump- merce activities rose from 18% in July/August 2018 tion quintile, threatening to increase the depth of poverty in Nigeria. OVERALL WORKING SITUATION OF SURVEY RESPONDENTS Every round of the NLPS collects the majority of infor- at 85%, close to the pre-COVID level. The recovery mation from a single respondent in each household, among survey respondents has reached the pre- including working status. The working status of the pandemic levels in rural areas (87%), where the changes main survey respondent has been captured in every observed since June may be partially explained by the round so the NLPS provides an indication of how the normal cycles in agriculture. In contrast, the share of working status of respondents has changed since the working respondents in urban areas has recovered at a start of the COVID-19 crisis. In September 2020, the slower pace and has not yet reached the pre-COVID share of survey respondents who are working stabilized levels. https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 1 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING Note: In the figure it is assumed that all those who were working at baseline were also working before mid-March. Thus, the shares of respondents work- ing shown for the before-mid-March period represent upper bounds. Temporary absences were not incorporated. OVERALL WORKING SITUATION OF ALL WORKING AGE ADULTS In Round 5 of the NLPS, an additional effort was made ment in Nigeria. The main survey respondents tend to to collect working status information for all working- differ in important ways from the overall population of age adults (those aged 15 to 64 years) rather than just working-age adults (survey respondents are predomi- a single respondent in each household. Collecting infor- nantly male and generally older), and thus may not fully mation for all working-age adults provides a more ho- reflect the employment situation for the working-age listic and representative snapshot of overall employ- population as a whole. https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 2 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING The overall share of Nigerians who are working re- when, as in previous rounds of the NLPS, the analysis mains slightly lower than before the COVID-19 crisis. focused only on the main respondent in each house- Around 71% of the working-age population were work- hold (see above). This, in turn, underlines the im- ing in September 2020 compared with 77% of the portance of making additional efforts to capture infor- working-age population prior to the crisis, in July/ mation on multiple individuals in a household who may August 2018 when the post-planting round of the not be fully represented in a survey consisting only of 2018/19 General Household Survey-Panel (GHS-Panel) one household respondent, particularly women and was fielded. This differs from the findings that emerge young adults. Box 1. Defining people’s working situation in the NLPS In order to capture people’s working situation, this not count those engaged in own-use production ac- brief focuses on the share of people who were work- tivities. Unlike the share of people working, the em- ing – either for pay or profit or in own-use produc- ployment-to-population ratio increased slightly be- tion (such as subsistence farmers) – consistent with tween July/August 2018 and September 2020, rising previous NLPS data and policy briefs. An alternative from 61% to 66%. This arose because, among those measure of people’s working situation is the who were working, the share who were engaged in ‘employment-to-population ratio’, which captures the own-use production (who would not be counted in share of the working-age population (those aged 15- the employment rate) fell by two-thirds, dropping 64 years) who are working for pay or profit but does from 21% to 7%. The reduction in the share of people who are working that the individual did not work in the last 7 days but largely appears to have arisen in rural areas. In urban had a job to which they would return – but by Septem- areas, the share of people working moved from 68% ber 2020, this share had risen to 7%. This may reflect before the crisis to 66% in September 2020. However, the fact that some jobs have been interrupted, but only in rural areas, the share of people working dropped temporarily so, by economic disruptions related to the from 81% to 74% over the same period. COVID-19 crisis. However, the share of the working- The overall share of the working-age population tem- age population who were unemployed, which covers porarily absent from work is higher than before the those not working but actively looking for work, was crisis, but the share that are unemployed is slightly low- 9% before the crisis and 7% in September 2020. In turn, er. Prior to the crisis, just 2% of the working-age popu- this means that the unemployment rate – the share of lation were temporarily absent from work – meaning the economically active (excluding own-use production https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 3 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING workers) who were unemployed – was 13% before the September 2020 while the share working in other ser- vice activities and industry decreased; the share work- crisis and 9% in September 2020. Individuals may not be ing in agriculture remained fairly constant. Before the able to ‘afford’ to be openly unemployed for long peri- ods during the COVID-19 crisis, because household crisis, around 18% of workers were engaged in com- merce, but this share rose to 26% by September 2020. incomes are reduced, consumption is low, and taking the time to search for a job is untenable. Meanwhile, the share of working individuals engaged in The overall share of working Nigerians engaged in industry and services fell from 8% to 4% and from 23% commerce increased between July/August 2018 and to 20% respectively. The share of workers engaged in agriculture remained fairly constant at around 48%. Note: Industry comprises ‘Mining & Manufacturing’, ‘Utilities’, and ‘Construction’. Services comprises ‘Services’, ‘Transport’, and ‘Professional Activities’. Working Nigerians are now somewhat more likely to family business is accompanied by a reduction in the engage in family business activities compared with the share of individuals engaged in family farming (or live- pre-crisis period. In July/August 2018, around 40% of stock rearing or fishing) activities, providing evidence working individuals were engaged in family businesses that there has not been a significant swing towards en- compared with 44% in September 2020. The shift to gaging in agriculture as the crisis has advanced. https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 4 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING GENDER AND EMPLOYMENT STATUS The share of women who were working dropped more working, but these shares dropped to 78% and 65% than the share of men who were working between the respectively by September 2020. With women spending pre-crisis period and September 2020, suggesting that disproportionately more time out of work, the COVID- the COVID-19 crisis may be entrenching gender ine- 19 crisis may ‘scar’ their future labor market prospects, quality in the labor market. In July/August 2018, 82% of implying longer term impacts on their welfare. working-age men and 72% of working-age women were Considering employment transitions further suggests ing before the crisis, it emerges that women were rela- that the crisis may be widening gender inequality in the tively less likely to remain working in September 2020, labor market, which may have long term impacts on and more likely to transition to various non-working women’s working situation. Looking at a panel of indi- states than men, particularly to the inactive status. In- viduals who were interviewed during both the post- deed, among those who were working before the crisis, planting round of the 2018/19 GHS-Panel and Round 5 almost double the share of women compared to the of the NLPS, it is possible to examine how women and share of men (13% versus 7%) were economically inac- men switched between different labor market statuses. tive by September 2020. Focusing on the sample of individuals who were work- Note: The sample was constructed from a panel of individuals who were working during the post-planting round of the 2018/19 GHS-Panel. https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 5 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING Breaking down the sectors of work by gender, it ap- ture. The share of working women engaged in com- pears that much of the shift towards commerce has merce rose across all educational groups, although the been driven by working women, and especially those increase was especially pronounced among those with with low levels of education. In July/August 2018, low levels of education: amongst working women with around 23% of all working women were engaged in no education, primary education, secondary education, commerce, but that proportion had risen to 42% by and tertiary education the shares engaged in commerce September 2020. While these changes mainly appear to increased by 22 percentage points, 13 percentage come from a decline in the share of working women in points, 14 percentage points, and 6 percentage points services and industry, there was also a slight decline in respectively. the share of working women participating in agricul- Note: Industry comprises ‘Mining & Manufacturing’, ‘Utilities’, and ‘Construction’. Services comprises ‘Services’, ‘Transport’, and ‘Professional Activities’. DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACTS OF THE CRISIS Individuals from across the consumption distribution 19 crisis to 70% in September 2020. This relatively large have been affected by the crisis but the reduction in the drop has potentially serious implications for the depth share of people working was largest for the poorest of poverty in Nigeria, as households that were already consumption quintile. Among working-age individuals in poor before COVID-19 may be pushed further below households in the lowest consumption quintile, the the poverty line. share working dropped from 79% prior to the COVID- https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 6 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING The shift of workers into commerce has been most Even though the overall share of working Nigerians pronounced for those in the lower quintiles of the con- engaged in agriculture has remained fairly constant, it sumption distribution. Taking the bottom-40 percent of appears that richer Nigerians – and those with higher the consumption distribution together, the share of levels of education – have switched into agriculture workers engaged in commerce rose from 16% to 28%. during the COVID-19 crisis. In the top quintile, the This resonates with the finding that women with low share of working individuals who were engaged in agri- levels of education have been the main drivers of the culture increased from 32% to 40% from July/August increased share of workers in commerce, as education 2018 to September 2020; among those with tertiary and monetary consumption are highly correlated. education, the share engaged in agriculture rose from Among the bottom-40, the share working in other 19% to 44%. The crisis may therefore be leading to a types of services fell from 21% to 15%, while the mea- misallocation of workers, which does not make the gre share engaged in industry fell further from 4% to best use of previous investments in human capital. 2%. CONTINUING ECONOMIC PRECARIOUSNESS The labor market conditions observed in Round 5 of negative coping strategies). Since Round 5 suggests that the NLPS emphasize that the economic precariousness the share of people who are working is lower than be- observed in previous rounds of the survey is continuing. fore the crisis – especially for women and for the low- In August 2020, 67% of households reported that their est quintile – and that workers have been switching incomes were lower than a year before, while in July between different sectors, it appears that Nigerian 2020 around 69% of those households that experi- households’ incomes and consumption remain precari- enced shocks since the outbreak of COVID-19 report- ous. ed reducing their food consumption (alongside other Data Notes: The Nigeria COVID-19 National Longitudinal Phone Survey (COVID-19 NLPS) 2020 Fifth Round was implemented by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in September 2020. This survey is part of a World Bank global effort to support countries in their data collection efforts to monitor the impacts of COVID-19. World Bank teams from the Development Data Group and the Poverty and Equity Global Practice provided technical support. This survey is the fifth of a planned 12 rounds of the COVID-19 NLPS of households in Nigeria. 1,856 households from the baseline were contacted and 1,773 households, fully interviewed. These same households will be contacted in subse- quent rounds of the COVID-19 NLPS. The data are representative at the national level and survey weights were calculated to adjust for non-response and under coverage. For further details on the data, visit http://www.worldbank.org/lsms-covid19 & https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/nigeria/brief/monitoring-covid-19-impact-on-nigerian-households For further details on COVID-19 in Nigeria, visit https://nigeria-coronavirus-response-data-hub-nbs-nigeria.hub.arcgis.com/ For details on the survey, contact Biyi Fafunmi (biyifafunmi@nigerianstat.gov.ng) and Tunde Adebisi (tundeadebisi@nigerianstat.gov.ng) https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 7