74877 DECPG Daily Economics and Financial Market Commentary January 17, 2013 Allen Dennis (84812), Eung Ju Kim (85804), Sanket Mohapatra (37721), Ekaterine T. Vashakmadze (36773) You’ll find recent issues of this Daily and lots of other current analysis and h igh-frequency data at our website: http://www.worldbank.org/gem Financial Markets… U.S. and European stocks rose today, amid better- than-forecast initial unemployment claims and housing data in the US and increased revenues for European retailers. The S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 1,478.14 at 10:43 a.m. EST. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 58.25 points, or 0.4%, to 13,569.48. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) rose 0.4% to 287.04 at 3:49 p.m. in London, the biggest increase since Jan. 9. The euro approached a 10-month high against the dollar, appreciating 0.5% to $1.3358 at 10:57 a.m. New York time after climbing earlier as much as 0.7%, and rose 1.6% against the yen to 119.37 yen, as Spain’s borrowing costs fell at a 4.5 billion -euro ($6 billion) sale of bonds. The UK pound sterling depreciated 0.7% to a nine-month low of 83.62 pence per euro at 4:06 p.m. London time, after reaching 83.65 pence, the weakest since March 29. High-income Economies…US initial unemployment claims fell by 37,000 to a five-year low of 335,000 in the week ended January 12. The four-week moving average of claims, a better measure of trends, dropped to 359,250 from 366,000, suggesting that the pace of firings by firms is subsiding. US new housing construction accelerated 12.1% (m/m) in December to a 954,000 unit annual rate, the highest since June 2008. The Netherlands’ unemployment rate rose to 7.2% in December from 7% the previous month. The unemployment rate has been rising almost continuously since June 2011 when it stood at 5%. Ireland’s consumer price inflation rose to 1.2% (y/y) in December from 0.8% in November, rising by 0.1% (m/m) according to the central statistical office. On an EU adjusted (HICP) basis, inflation edged up to 1.7% (y/y) in December from 1.6% in November, with prices unchanged from the previous month. Hong Kong’s unemployment rate edged down to 3.3% in the three month period ending in December from 3.4% in the September-November period, as business activity during the year-end holiday season helped to support the labor market. Developing Economies…Brazil's central bank held its benchmark Selic rate steady at 7.25%. Brazil's headline inflation rate rose to 5.84% in December, remaining above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range (4.5%, +/- 2 percentage points). Serbia's central bank raised its benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points to 11.50%, its seventh rate increase since mid-2012, in its effort to contain pressures on inflation and foreign exchange reserves. The headline inflation increased to 12.2% (y/y) in 1 December, remaining above the central bank’s targeted range of 4.0%, +/ - 1.5 percentage points, and core inflation was at 8.2%. Sri Lanka's central bank held its benchmark repurchase rate steady at 7.50%. Sri Lanka's inflation rate eased to 9.2% (y/y) in December from 9.5% in November. The rupee has been appreciating against the US dollar on the back of growing foreign exchange inflows. World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects, January 2013: Video clips http://go.worldbank.org/RWLJPPA0D0 http://go.worldbank.org/RWLJPPA0D0 http://www.bloomberg.com/video/world-bank-sees-ongoing-economic-weakness-in-2013- ~_In2m09Sc20sZ3QIAacmA.html http://www.bloomberg.com/video/world-bank-sees-ongoing-economic-weakness-in- 2013-~_In2m09Sc20sZ3QIAacmA.html Recent issues and other current analysis is also available on the Prospects blog ***************************************************** DECPG Daily is an informal briefing for Bank staff whose responsibilities require that they stay abreast of changes in global markets. The views expressed here are those of the various authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the World Bank Group's Executive Directors or the countries they represent. The content is subject to copyright and is not for quotation outside of the World Bank. The Prospects Group of the World Bank is pleased to share this content under the agreed terms and conditions of use. Feedback and requests to be added to or dropped from the distribution list may be sent to adennis@worldbank.org. 2