WORLDBANKGROUP G D R EUROPE AND CENTRAL AS1A(ECA) AFFECTED AFFECTED CAPITAL LOSS GQ U M RI5K PROF] LES BY 100-YEAR BY 250-YEAR FROM 250-YEAR FLOOD EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE GDP $6.3 billion* Kosovo 0.oplaio-.9milin K osovo's population and economy pecn)adgrulreee- S E are exposed to earthquakes and ating the remainder. Kosovo's floods, with earthquakes posing per capita GDP was $3,410. AnnualAverage of Affected GDP the greater risk of a high impact, lower probability event. The model results for present-day risk shown in this risk pro- province in Kosovo, with great- 1 EARTHQUAKE file are based on population and gross er color saturation indicating domestic product (GDP) estimates for greater GDP within a province. The blue circles indicate the0Nelibe 2015. The estimated damage caused by 0 Netligib[e historical events is inflated to 2015 US risk of experiencing floods dollars. and the orange circles the risk of earthquakes in terms of 4 Just over half of Kosovo's population normalized annual average of lives in rural environments. The coun- affected GDP. The largest circl try's GDP was approximately US$6.4 represent the greatest noral- Peja billion in 2015, with most derived from ized risk- The risk is estimat services and industry (together almost using flood and earthquake risk models. The table displays the proy- TO AFETE POVNCSinces at greatest normalized G1 TOP AFFECTED PROVINCES risk for ea ch p era. I n both - - relative and absolute terms, the province at greatest risk of FL EARTHQUAKE Gui) ARTHUAKE floods is Mitrovica, and thepone ANNUAL AVERAGE OF ANNUAL AVERAGE OF AFFECTED GDP (%) AFFECTED GDP (%) a g n o e,hu, is Prizreni. Mitrovica Prizreni 3 fR OF MACEDONIA Gjilani 0 Gjakova 2 LBA Prishtin6 Gjilani 1 Prizreni Peja 1 G Peja 0 Ferizaji 1 *Sibnational boundaries on the Kcsovc Gjakova 0 PrishtinL 1 map represent "p[anning areas"torthe Thee s a high correlation Ferizap p Mitrovica 0 anai 095) between he Thios ap dhispalysisGDP by r c oo pspua iaion a nd GDPEofAa grete province Kosov WORLDBANKGROUP EUGFDRR "AND CENTRAL A51A(ECA) Affected GDP (%) for N o reliable reports are available that happen relatively frequently. 10 and 100-year return periods on flood damage for Kosovo. Ifthe impact of a 100-year event is One block = 1% The country was, however, much greater than that of a 10-year 10 affected by floods in 2010 and 2014. event, then less frequent events make a larger contribution to the annual Annua[ average 2 This map depicts the impact of flood- average of affected GDP. Thus, even ing on provinces' GDPs, represented if a province's annual affected GDP S E RBIA 10-year 100-year as percentages of their annual aver- seems small, less frequent and miore age GDPs affected, with greater color intense events can still have large saturation indicating higher percent- impacts. Annual Average of Affected GOP ages. The bar graphs represent GDP affected by floods with return periods The annual average population of 10 years (white) and 100 years affected by flooding in Kosovo is (black). The horizontal line across the about 10,000 and the annual average o a 9 bars also shows the annual average of affected GDP about $50 million. For GDP affected by floods. most provinces, the 10- and 100- year impacts do not differ much, so When a flood has a 10-year return relatively frequent floods have large period, it means the probability of impacts on these averages. occurrence of a flood of that magni- Peja Prlshtlne tude or greater is 10 percent per yea r. A 100-year flood has a probability Prfkne of occurrence of 1 percent per year. This means that over a long period of time, a flood of that magnitude will, At on average, occur once every 100 a vjilani years. It does not mean a 100-year flood will occur exactly once every 100 years. In fact, it is possible for a FenzaJI flood of any return period to occur more than once in the same year, or Prizreni to appear in consecutive years, or not to happen at all over a long period of MACOA time. LB A If the 10- and 100-year bars are the same height, then the impact of a 10- year event is as large as that of a 100- *Subnational boundaries on the Kosovo year event, and the annual average of map represent "planning areas" for the affected GDP is dominated by events purposes of this analysis. KosvoWORLDBANKGROUP EL GFR ROP AND ECENTRAL A5IA(ECA) K osovo's worst earthquake to happen at all over a long period And 10e r since 1900 took place in of time. 1911. Its epicenter was in *80 Ochrida, now FYR of Macedonia. If the 10- and 100-year bars are 40 The same region was also hit by an the same height, then the impact AnnLia[ average 20 earthquake in 1896. of a 10-year event is as large as that of a 100-year event, and the ;t E SRBI A 1-er10ya This map depicts the impact of annual average of affected GDP is earthquakes on provinces' GDPs, dominated by events that happen represented as percentages of their relatively frequently If the impact annual average GDPs affected, with of a 100-year event is much greater Annual Average of Affected GOP (%) greater color saturation indicat- than that of a 10-year event, then ing higher percentages. The bar less frequent events make larger graphs represent GDP affected by contributions to the annual average earthquakes with return periods of affected GDI. Thus, even if a mitrovica of 10 years (white) and 100 years province's annual affected GDP (black). The horizontal line across seems small, less frequent and the bars also shows the annual more intense events can still have average of GDP affected by earth- large impacts. quakes. The annual average population af- J When an earthquake has a 10-year fected by earthquakes in Kosovo is return period, it means the prob- about 30,000 and the annual aver- ability of occurrence of an earth- age affected GDP about $90 million. quake of that magnitude or greater The annual averages of fatalities is 10 percent per year. A 100-year and capital losses caused by earth- earthquake has a probability of quakes,are about two and about occurrence of 1 percent per year. $10 million, respectively. The fatal- This means that over a long period ities and capital losses caused by of time, an earthquake of that mag- more intense, less frequent events nitude will, on average, occur once can he substantially larger than every 100 years. It does not mean the annual averages. For example, a 100-year earthquake will occur an earthquake with a 0.4 percent exactly once every 100 years. In annual probability of occurrence L A fact, it is possible for an earthquake (a 25S-year return period event) of any return period to occur more could cause nearly $400 million in than once in the same year, or to capital loss (6 percent of GUD'). Ifibaioa thedaie 10- and 100yerobrsar appear in consecutive years, or nota ap represent opanning areas for the purposes of this analysis KosovoWORLDBANKGROUP E|G FDRR "EAND CENTRAL A51A (ECA) EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE ANNUAL AVERAGE CAPITAL LOSS ($) ANNUAL AVERAGE FATALITIES lhe rose diagrams show the provinces with the potential o for greatest annual average capital losses and highest annual average numbers of fatalities, as determined using Penzali 0 Gakz 2F an earthquake risk model. The potential for greatest capital loss occurs in Prizreni, which is not surprising, given the economic importance of the province. --- ------- --------- a-------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ' EARTHQUAKE EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 A" ITaffected by, respectively, floods and earthquakes for 8 16 varying probabilities of occurrence. Values for two different 07 14time periods are shown. A solid line depicts the affected GDP for 2015 conditions. A diagonally striped band depicts S2 1 the range of affected GDP based on a selection of climate 2080 0. 0and socioeconomic scenarios for 2080. For example, if 0.4 200Kosovo had experienced a 100-year return period flo'od S event in 2015, the affectedQGDP would have been an esti- 2080 d, x mated $200 million. In 2080,Jhowever, the affected GDP 201502 r 4 ~from tesme type of event would range from about $300 0.1 2millon t about $700 million. If Kosovo had experienced a 2015 250-yar earthquake event in 20157, the affected GDP would, 10 5 100?50 0 50 100have been about $3 billion. In 2 080, the affected GDP from Return~~~ ~~~~ peid(er)Rtr eld(er)the same type of event would range from about $6 billion to 2/ .a.aabout $15 billion, due to population growth, urbanization, Pro ba i lityand the incrersein exposed assets. ..................................................--4 ------ ----------------..... .... All historical data on earthquakes are from . Danieli andIA-Schaefer."Easterm Eurmpean.dfCetrl A.ia Region. Fa,tl-ak Rink. A-E-.ment Cou-tw nd Pr...... Plannling," finalseporttf 6FDR,21iDarnng etirmatesforall h,stdr-g1 pElnt. - h-ber ,9tat,dq 215 US$- M-eoreinfWrmation on the data and context ran be found in the fult publicatin. Europe and Central Asia Country Risk Profile-s for Flndsd and Earthquake., at -,vlrpr/ ictio rby contac-tigJoaclui Tano4 t-rcrldhank.oor , Dr. Alanna Simpo~msnnp-iorldbanks PPe- SoEothe tutl pubication for the complete disclainmer and limnitations on mtoology- Althouagh GFDRR makes reasonakle efforts In ensure all tenrooRnpreseted in thos document s ca-ct,a-oraEV and innjptri-t y tbE 0raraotee4I