Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: ICR00004265 IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT Loan Number 7881-CN ON A LOAN IN THE AMOUNT OF US$100 MILLION TO THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC of CHINA FOR THE CHINA: ANHUI MEDIUM CITIES URBAN TRANSPORT PROJECT December 28, 2018 Transport Global Practice East Asia And Pacific Region CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective December 31, 2017) Currency Unit = Renminbi (RMB) US$1 = RMB 6.51 FISCAL YEAR January 1 – December 31 Regional Vice President: Victoria Kwakwa Country Director: Bert Hofman Senior Global Practice Director: Guangzhe Chen Practice Manager: Binyam Reja Task Team Leader(s): Yuhui Jiao ICR Main Contributor: Jin Wang, Young Ho Kim ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS APMO Anhui Project Management Office APTS Advanced Public Transport System ATC Area Traffic Control BCR Benefit-Cost Ratio BP Bank Procedure CBA Cost-Benefit Analysis CPS Country Partnership Strategy DO Development Objective DRC Development and Reform Commission EA Environmental Assessment EIA Environmental Impact Assessment EIRR Economic Internal Rate of Return EMP Environmental Management Plan FM Financial Management FYP Five-Year Plan GDP Gross Domestic Product GHG Greenhouse Gas GoC Government of China HHs Households IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development ICR Implementation Completion Report IFR Interim Financial Report IP Implementation Progress KPI Key Performance Indicators M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MOF Ministry of Finance NDRC National Development and Reform Commission NGO Non-Governmental Organization NMT Non-Motorized Transport NPV Net Present Value OP Operational Policy O&M Operation and Maintenance PAD Project Appraisal Document PDO Project Development Objective PMO Project Management Office PIU Project Implementation Unit PT Public Transport RPF Resettlement Policy Framework RAP Resettlement Action Plan SA Social Assessment SCD Systematic Country Diagnostic Sum4All Sustainable Mobility for All RF Results Framework TA Technical Assistance TABLE OF CONTENTS DATA SHEET .......................................................................................................................... 1 I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES ....................................................... 6 A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL .........................................................................................................6 B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION (IF APPLICABLE) ..................................... 11 II. OUTCOME .................................................................................................................... 13 A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs ............................................................................................................ 13 B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) ...................................................................................... 14 C. EFFICIENCY ........................................................................................................................... 21 D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING .................................................................... 22 E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS (IF ANY) ............................................................................ 22 III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME ................................ 23 A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION ................................................................................... 23 B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION ............................................................................. 24 IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME .. 25 A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) ............................................................ 25 B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE ..................................................... 26 C. BANK PERFORMANCE ........................................................................................................... 28 D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME ....................................................................................... 29 V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................. 29 ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS ........................................................... 31 ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION ......................... 49 ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT ........................................................................... 51 ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS ........................................................................................... 52 ANNEX 5. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS ... 59 ANNEX 6. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS (IF ANY) ..................................................................... 60 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) DATA SHEET BASIC INFORMATION Product Information Project ID Project Name P111421 China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project Country Financing Instrument China Investment Project Financing Original EA Category Revised EA Category Partial Assessment (B) Partial Assessment (B) Organizations Borrower Implementing Agency People's Republic of China, Ministry of Finance, Anhui Construction Management Offices, Wuhu International Department, Transport Bureau Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO The development objective of the project is to improve mobility on selected main corridors of the municipalities of Anqing, Huaibei, Lu’an and Wuhu in Anhui Province in a safe and efficient manner. Page 1 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) FINANCING Original Amount (US$) Revised Amount (US$) Actual Disbursed (US$) World Bank Financing 100,000,000 77,641,815 77,641,815 IBRD-78810 Total 100,000,000 77,641,815 77,641,815 Non-World Bank Financing Borrower/Recipient 168,720,000 211,418,185 154,448,185 Total 168,720,000 211,418,185 154,448,185 Total Project Cost 268,720,000 289,060,000 232,090,000 KEY DATES Approval Effectiveness MTR Review Original Closing Actual Closing 20-May-2010 09-Nov-2010 12-Aug-2013 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Page 2 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) RESTRUCTURING AND/OR ADDITIONAL FINANCING Date(s) Amount Disbursed (US$M) Key Revisions 21-Jun-2012 7.62 Reallocation between Disbursement Categories 15-Jun-2015 21.19 Change in Implementing Agency Change in Results Framework Change in Components and Cost Change in Financing Plan Reallocation between Disbursement Categories Change in Disbursements Arrangements Change in Institutional Arrangements Change in Procurement Change in Implementation Schedule 26-Jan-2016 35.29 Change in Results Framework Change in Components and Cost Change in Loan Closing Date(s) Change in Financing Plan Reallocation between Disbursement Categories Change in Disbursements Arrangements Change in Procurement Change in Implementation Schedule 31-Jul-2017 53.18 Change in Loan Closing Date(s) KEY RATINGS Outcome Bank Performance M&E Quality Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Modest RATINGS OF PROJECT PERFORMANCE IN ISRs Actual No. Date ISR Archived DO Rating IP Rating Disbursements (US$M) 01 28-Jun-2011 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 4.00 02 06-Apr-2012 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 4.00 03 10-May-2013 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 11.62 04 18-Dec-2013 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory 14.01 Moderately 05 24-Jun-2014 Moderately Unsatisfactory 14.11 Unsatisfactory Page 3 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) Moderately 06 19-Jan-2015 Moderately Unsatisfactory 18.33 Unsatisfactory Moderately 07 21-Jun-2015 Moderately Unsatisfactory 21.19 Unsatisfactory Moderately 08 18-Dec-2015 Moderately Unsatisfactory 24.85 Unsatisfactory Moderately 09 07-Feb-2016 Moderately Unsatisfactory 42.06 Unsatisfactory 10 22-Dec-2016 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory 49.78 11 01-Jun-2017 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 53.18 12 27-Dec-2017 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 78.80 SECTORS AND THEMES Sectors Major Sector/Sector (%) Transportation 100 Urban Transport 99 Public Administration - Transportation 1 Themes Major Theme/ Theme (Level 2)/ Theme (Level 3) (%) Urban and Rural Development 100 Urban Development 100 Urban Infrastructure and Service Delivery 100 ADM STAFF Role At Approval At ICR Regional Vice President: James W. Adams Victoria Kwakwa Country Director: David R. Dollar Bert Hofman Senior Global Practice Director: John A. Roome Guangzhe Chen Practice Manager: Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez Binyam Reja Task Team Leader(s): Shomik Raj Mehndiratta Yuhui Jiao Page 4 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) ICR Contributing Author: Jin Wang Page 5 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL Context 1. Background. At the time of project preparation and appraisal around 2010, China had experienced a double-digit economic growth for three decades. Anhui Province, located in the lower Yangtze delta west of the coastal provinces of Zhejiang and Jiangsu, had not benefited proportionately from the first three decades of China’s economic reforms. By 2006, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per head in Anhui was RMB10,044 ($1,478), less than 65 percent of the national average and 28th in the country (of the 31 provincial-level entities). Though Anhui’s medium-sized cities of Anqing, Huaibei, Lu’an and Wuhu were relatively poor in 2006 (the per capital disposable income of their urban residents was below the average for China as a whole), these four cities had strong industrial bases and were experiencing a double-digit GDP growth at the time of project appraisal. Accordingly, the provincial government identified the cities of Anqing, Huaibei, Lu’an and Wuhu to take part in the Bank-financed project and the municipalities had identified a substantial program of infrastructure development that they considered to be essential to sustain and increase their economic development. Transport infrastructure was a significant and very visible element of these investments. 2. Project cities faced a complex array of urban transport challenges. A rapidly expanding urban area, increasing motorization, insufficient road network, undersupplied public transport services with old environmentally deficient buses, and low road safety were challenging the project cities’ administrative, technical and financial capacities to modernize their transport systems and passenger services. The road networks in the project cities were dominated by main arterials on which most traffic was concentrated. Branch roads and alleys had little continuity across main streets. The poor condition of the road network, especially the non-arterial network, had an impact on the safety of cyclists and pedestrians, who depended on this system for last-mile access. A lower level of bus service (due to insufficient bus stops and depots) also made public transport less attractive and less competitive. As a result, passengers suffered an increase in travel times while operators faced increased operating costs. These problems - including the poor condition of the road network in urban areas, low level of bus services, and weak policies on developing public and non-motorized transport (NMT) - coupled with a lack of experience and institutional capacity for developing and managing urban transport, forced the municipal governments of the project cities to take urgent actions to improve the accessibility, mobility, and road safety of their citizens. 3. World Bank Involvement. The Bank was well positioned to help the project cities address their urban transport challenges based on its long experience (in China as well as in other developing countries) in multimodal urban transport systems, management, environmental impact mitigation, social assessment and relocation, and institutional capacity building. The Bank was therefore a valuable Page 6 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) development partner to work with the project cities on the identified urban transport issues. 1 The provincial government and the project cities’ municipal governments had explicitly noted that they were expecting the Bank to provide not only financing, but also support to strengthen their urban transport planning, operational and management practices. 4. Project Innovations and Value Added of the Bank. The main innovations of the project are summarized as follows: a. A major project design innovation was the integrated corridor improvement concept and its pilot demonstration as a learning tool. The project included integrated corridor improvements, which coordinated improvements in public transport operations, on-street priority for buses, enhancements to the fixed infrastructures on critical key transport corridors in each project city for public transport improvements, traffic engineering improvements, safety enhancements for pedestrians and cyclists, and road improvements. A key feature of Bank involvement in this project was enhanced traffic management, leading to safer facilities for pedestrians and cyclists (including innovations such as mid-block pedestrian signals, junction channelization, signal phasing and safe cycle-lane barriers) and piloting on- street priority for buses on the key corridors. b. The project focused on medium-sized cities. Medium-sized cities had the same transport needs as large cities; however, most of these tier-two cities lacked resources to improve their public transport systems, although most residents rely on public transit. Walking, cycling and bus ridership accounted for more than 70 percent of daily trips in the project cities in 2007. At the same time, each project city had a few key transport corridors which accounted for the majority of city traffic, particularly on public transport. A few corridors in these cities were also responsible for more than 30-40 percent of all fatal accidents. The project focused on these key corridors and used integrated methods to improve them in a safe, clean and affordable manner. c. The project developed a client-driven institutional agenda and promoted public participation. The project design was relatively simple and contained, focusing primarily on one key corridor in each project city, so as not to strain the capacity of the relatively weak counterpart municipalities. The project was designed to maximize peer-to-peer learning across cities through regular workshops and seminars during supervision missions – this additional dimension of interaction supported the public transport and traffic management units to strengthen their roles. A public consultation process was successfully adopted by Anhui and provided significant guidance on the detailed design of the project components. d. The project objective was consistent with China’s poverty reduction agenda and contributed to the global public goods. China’s tradition of walking and bicycling persisted and remained 1The Bank has a long history in urban transport in China, starting with the Shanghai urban transport projects and the 1995 Symposium in Beijing on Urban Transport Development Strategy (World Bank Discussion Paper, No. 352); Transport in China: An Evaluation of World Bank Assistance: (1998); and subsequent urban transport projects, most recently in Xi’an (P092631) and several GEF projects, e.g., City Cluster ECO-Transfer Project (GEF Grant No: TF099421). Page 7 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) the mainstay of the poor. The project was designed to ensure better public transport operations and enhanced safety and mobility for road users on key corridors, especially the vulnerable population. The project also supported the national policies on traffic safety and prioritized public transport to promote the mode shift from cars to public transport, walking, and cycling, which contributed to GHG emission reduction. 5. The Project design was consistent with the World Bank Group Country Partnership Strategy for China and Government policies. The project concept was framed by the World Bank Group’s (WBG) China Country Partnership Strategy (CPS: 2006-2010), which aimed (among other objectives) to improve the competitiveness of the various regions of China and to address the needs of underdeveloped areas through financing infrastructure. China’s 11th Five-Year Plan (FYP) (2006-2010) called for supporting the “Rise of Central China” initiative, which embarked on a rapid program of infrastructure construction that was believed to be essential to sustain and increase its recent economic success. Anhui’s cities were undertaking their infrastructure expansion amid an increasing national priority on ‘people-centered’ development, with direct consequences for public transport and traffic safety. This project also supported the implementation of State Council Directive 46 on “priority for public transport”, and the National Road Traffic Safety Law of 2004. Theory of Change (Results Chain) 6. Figure 1 indicates the relationship between project activities, outputs, outcomes and long-term impacts. A number of critical assumptions were made at project appraisal, including: Anhui Project Management Office (APMO) and local Project Implementation Unit (PIU)s have sufficient capacity, adequate counterpart funding, and sound financial management (FM) for project implementation. Project Development Objectives (PDOs) 7. As stated in the Project Appraisal Document (PAD) and the Legal Agreement, the objectives of the project were: to improve mobility on selected main corridors of the municipalities of Anqing, Huaibei, Lu’an and Wuhu in Anhui Province in a safe and efficient manner. Key Expected Outcomes and Outcome Indicators 8. According to the PDO statement in the Legal Agreements, the key expected outcomes of this project were the following: a. Improved mobility on selected main corridors; b. Improved safety on selected main corridors; c. Improved efficiency on selected main corridors. 9. According to the Results Framework in the PAD, the Key Performance Indicators (KPI) to measure progress towards the PDO are: (i) safety on the corridors; (ii) increased bus ridership on key corridors and Page 8 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) urban areas; and (iii) lower travel times by bus between selected points on key corridors. A detailed map of the PDOs and their relationship with the Intermediate Results Indicators and project outcomes is shown in Annex 1. Figure 1 Theory of Change (Results Chain) Components 10. The project components and their costs at appraisal and at completion are shown in Annex 3. At appraisal, the components were organized according to the identified issues: (i) Integrated Corridor Improvement; (ii) Local Access and Freight; (iii) Public Transport; and (iv) Capacity Building. The estimated costs at appraisal as well as costs at completion (including resettlement costs) are shown in Table 1, along with the main reasons for variations in costs by component. Page 9 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) Table 1. Estimated and Completion Costs by Component Estimated Costs Actual Costs Main Factors for Cost Variation Component Activities (US$, million) (US$, million) (Rationale for Changes Stated in Paragraph 13) Anqing: North- Cross-section changed on Huxin Road from 4 to 6 South Transport 26.97 35.48 lanes in the middle segment and 4 to 8 lanes in Corridor the northern segment Huaibei: Huaihai- Suixi Road 12.12 5.55 Huaihai Road was cancelled Transport Corridor 1. Integrated Lu’an: North- Design changed on Jiefang and Meishan Road Corridor South Transport 14.42 28.93 from improvement of intersections only to Improvement Corridor rehabilitation of roads New construction of Third Ring Rd and improvement of Jiuhua Rd and Yijiang Rd were Wuhu: North- cancelled. 3 new roads (Changjiang Rd, Yinhu Rd South Transport 147.52 9.49 and Zheshan Rd) implemented to develop Corridor dedicated bus lanes and improve bus stops along the corridors Sub-Total 201.03 79.45 Anqing: Yanjiang Rd and Dekuan 1.31 2.67 Earth filling increased for Yanjiang Road Rd improvement Huaibei: new construction of 36.75 37.28 Contract variations for Tuohe Rd Tuohe Rd and Cuifeng Rd 2. Local Lu’an: new Access and construction of Freight Xicheng Rd and Competitive bidding for Xicheng Road, Pihe Road 41.59 32.10 Longhezhong Rd, and Longhezhong Road improvement of Pihe Rd Wuhu: no 0.00 0.00 No activities activities Sub-Total 79.65 72.05 Anqing: Hongguang and Shizishan bus 6.52 7.73 Earth filling increased for Hongguang bus depot depot, and maintenance facilities Huaibei: Tuohe bus maintenance 9.19 0.00 Tuohe bus maintenance yard was canceled 3. Public yard Transport Lu’an: bus maintenance 3.10 2.56 Competitive bidding for bus maintenance center center Wuhu: added New activities: procurement of clean energy new activities buses, bus maintenance facilities, fuel station 0.00 69.25 during the facilities, APTS, and rehabilitation of bus parking restructuring lots Sub-Total 18.81 79.54 Page 10 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) Anqing 0.26 0.16 Huaibei 0.22 0.12 Reduced international study tours due to the 4. Capacity strict domestic approval process Lu’an 0.24 0.13 Building Wuhu 0.52 0.38 Sub-Total 1.24 0.79 Front-End Fee 0.26 0.26 Total Project Cost 300.97* 232.09 * The original amount of the total project cost (268.72 million) shown in the datasheet did not include the indirect cost, which covered preparation cost for the FSR and safeguards instruments. B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION (IF APPLICABLE) Revised PDOs and Outcome Targets 11. The PDOs remained unchanged throughout project implementation. The outcome targets for Anqing, Huaibei and Lu’an remained unchanged throughout project implementation. However, the outcome targets for Wuhu were changed during the 2015 restructuring due to changes in project activities, see Annex 1. Revised PDO Indicators 12. The revised PDO indicators are shown in Annex 1. Revised Components 13. The project components remained the same, but there were cancellations or changes in project activities in the municipalities of Anqing, Huaibei, Lu’an and Wuhu during implementation as noted below. a. Anqing • The cross-section on Huxin Road was changed from four lanes to six lanes for 2.1 kilometers in the middle segment, and from four lanes to eight lanes for 1.8 kilometers in the northern segment, because of the relocation of the Anqing High Speed Rail Station due to a change in municipal plans. During project preparation, a new Anqing High Speed Rail Station was planned on Duxiu Road, which was 3.5 kilometers from Huxin Road. During implementation, the Anqing High Speed Rail Station was located at the north end of Huxin Road. Accordingly, the traffic volume on Huxin Road was estimated to increase dramatically. The cross-section on Huxin Road was therefore changed to six lanes in the middle segment and to eight lanes in the northern segment. b. Huaibei • Huaihai Road improvement was dropped from the project due to changes in traffic conditions. Page 11 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) Huaibei Municipality decided to improve Huaihai Road with domestic funding in the future. • Tuohe bus maintenance yard was not built because of changes in the Huaibei Municipality Land Use Plan and difficulties in land acquisition. Instead, Huaibei Municipality constructed four bus depots with domestic funding. Currently, nine bus depots are available for the 350 buses operating in Huaibei. • In order to utilize loan savings as a result of the above changes, the percentage of expenditures financed by the IBRD Loan increased from 35% to 100% for Category (1) Works during the 2016 restructuring. c. Lu’an • As Meishan Road and Pihe Road were constructed using counterpart funds, the percentage of expenditures financed by the IBRD Loan for Category (1) Works was increased from 45% to 55% during the 2012 restructuring. d. Wuhu • Three corridors under the integrated corridor improvement component were cancelled, namely Jiuhua Road improvement, Yijiang Road improvement, and the Third Ring Road construction. Wuhu Municipality proposed significant changes to the Third Ring Road design from the approved FSR, which were not economically justified by the traffic projections. Jiuhua Road improvement and Yijiang Road improvement could not be carried out because of the new construction of the Anning intercity rail as well as a viaduct that caused an unpredictable delay due to coordination problems with the railway project owner. Wuhu Municipality added three corridors for improvement under loan financing, namely Changjiang Road, Yinhu Road, and Zheshan Road. • Additional priority activities on public transport infrastructure improvement were added under the public transport component in Wuhu to utilize loan savings from the cancellation of the construction of the Third Ring Road. These included: resurfacing of parking lots at bus depots; development of an advanced public transit system (APTS); procurement of 715 clean energy buses 2 and maintenance equipment; and procurement of equipment for public transport gas stations (fuel dispensers), and underground tanks and associated systems. • In addition, in order to utilize loan savings as a result of the changes described above, the percentage of expenditures financed by the IBRD Loan for Category (1) Works was increased from 45% to 79% during the 2015 restructuring. 2Total number of buses procured by the project was 715 as planned. Among them 324 buses (269 hybrid buses and 55 CNG buses) were procured through the World Bank loan and 391 buses (200 hybrid buses and 191 CNG buses) were procured through counterpart funds. Page 12 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) Other Changes 14. An amount of US$22.36 million of the IBRD loan (22.36 %) was cancelled after the closing date. This was due to: (i) savings from competitive bidding; (ii) use of counterpart funds for some activities that were originally planned to be from the loan (northern and middle segments of Huxin Road in Anqing; Liyuan Road in Huaibei; Meishan Road, Pihe Road and the bus maintenance center improvement in Lu’an); and (iii) cancellation of some activities, including Huaihai Road improvement and Tuohe bus maintenance depot in Huaibei, and parking lot rehabilitation at Wuhu bus company. Rationale for Changes and Their Implication on the Original Theory of Change 15. Paragraph 13 provides the rationale for these changes. These changes had no adverse effects on the achievement of the PDO and the theory of change discussed earlier remained valid. II. OUTCOME A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs Assessment of Relevance of PDOs and Rating 16. The PDO continues to be relevant to China’s current economic and social development, and environmental sustainability goals. It is fully aligned with the 13th National Five-Year Plan (FYP) for economic and social development (2016-2020). The Government continues to support the “Rise of Central China” plan under the 13th FYP to accelerate the development of the central region, including Anhui. The 13th FYP aims to create a “moderately prosperous society in all respects” through five key themes, namely, innovation, coordinated development, green growth, openness, and inclusive growth. Specifically, the 13th FYP points out that an efficient, intelligent, green, integrated and inter-connected transport infrastructure has to be built for the overall economic and social development. The main task for the transport sector within the 13th FYP period is to promote a Safe, Green, Smart, and Multimodal interconnected transport system. Project components, such as integrated corridor development, construction of local access and freight roads, and enhancement of the public transport system are fully aligned with these objectives and tasks. 17. The PDO is fully aligned with Anhui Province’s 13th FYP for economic and social development (2016-2020). The 13th Anhui FYP promotes transportation network layout, intelligent management, integrated services, green development and safe operation, accelerates the modernization of transportation, and develops a transportation network that includes a high-quality rapid transportation network and a specialized freight transportation network. The project objectives and components (integrated corridor development, construction of local access and freight roads, and enhancement of the public transport system) are aligned with the 13th Anhui FYP. 18. The PDO is in line with the World Bank Group’s Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) for China. Page 13 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) The World Bank Group’s China CPS for FY13-16 (Report No. 67566-CN3) is focused on three main themes: supporting greener growth, promoting more inclusive development, and advancing mutually beneficial relations with the world. The project is relevant specifically to CPS strategic theme one, “supporting greener growth”, and theme two, “promoting more inclusive development”, which include Outcome 1.3 (Promoting Low-Carbon Urban Transport) and Outcome 2.4 (Improving Transport Connectivity for a More Balanced Regional Development). The PDO is also well aligned with the Bank’s Sustainable Mobility for All (SuM4All) initiative by simultaneously pursuing equity, efficiency, safety, and green mobility. The WBG is supporting China in promoting low-carbon urban transport by accelerating the shift to public transport and is helping to promote urban transport through road safety and traffic management measures. The Bank’s ‘China Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) (Report No.: 113092-CN)’ prioritizes the reduction of disparity in access to public services, mitigation of climate change and air pollution, and promotion of “green growth”. The PDO and project design are tightly wrapped around three broad elements: improve mobility and safety by “greener” public transport, while reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. 19. In view of the above, Relevance of the PDO is rated Substantial. B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) Assessment of Achievement of Each Objective/Outcome 20. Project activities include road construction/rehabilitation, provision of traffic management systems, procurement of new energy buses, improvement of bus stops/shelters, construction of bus maintenance facilities, and capacity building. Project achievements at the outcome level are evaluated in three aspects: mobility, safety, and efficiency. Mobility is measured by average bus travel times between selected points on key corridors. Safety is measured by the annual number of fatalities and injuries on key corridors. Efficiency is measured by daily bus ridership on key corridors and annual bus ridership in urban areas. The efficacy of the project in each city has been evaluated individually. 21. Achievement of the PDO in Anqing is rated Substantial. The Anqing component of the project included: (i) construction/improvement of three corridors (Shuguang Road, Yanjiang East Road, and Huxin Road) and accessibility improvements on Dekuan Road; (ii) bus depots in Shizishan and Hongguang; (iii) provision of a traffic management system; (iv) procurement of road maintenance equipment; and (v) construction of bus stops. While the construction of Shuguang Road and Yanjiang East Road progressed as planned, the completion of Huxin Road was behind the original schedule due to the change in cross- section design. All activities in Anqing were completed and put into operation by project closure. 1) Safety a. Output • More safe pedestrian crossings were implemented than the target, and the distance between safe crossings was reduced as per the target value. 3 The CPS has not been updated since FY13-16. Page 14 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) b. Outcome • The rehabilitation of Huxin Road contributed significantly to improving traffic safety not only for motorized traffic, but also for non-motorized traffic. The rehabilitation resulted in traffic operation in a more orderly manner and the annual number of traffic fatalities and injuries on Huxin Road corridor decreased substantially from 8 (baseline) to 2 in 2017. 2) Efficiency a. Output • Prior to the project, bus service in Anqing was less attractive than the other modes due to its low-quality owing to inefficient bus depots and insufficient bus stops. There were no shelters at bus stops before the project started. Under the project, 46 shelters/26 bus stops were constructed, and bus depots were built at Hongguang and Shizishan. These depots provided not only 190 off-street bus parking spaces, but also maintenance facilities for Anqing bus company. The newly built bus stops improved accessibility by increasing the coverage of bus stops within 300 meters/500 meters from 41%/63% to 55%/89%. b. Outcome • Against the target increase in daily bus ridership (20 percent increase of the baseline value, i.e., 6,816 people), there was an almost six-fold increase in daily bus ridership (32,921 people) on the main corridors, which is attributed mainly to the opening of the high-speed railway station. The annual bus ridership in the urban area also reached the target value. • Improvement in bus services contributed partially to the increase in bus ridership. This encouraged Anqing Municipal Government to use domestic funds to install more shelters for passengers waiting at bus stops. This improvement was timely, since the number of daily railway passengers increased from 7,000 to 40,000 due to the opening of the high-speed railway station on December 6, 2015. 3) Mobility a. Output • For the improvement of mobility, 0.62 km of Shuguang Road and 0.88 km of Yanjiang Road were built and 5.24 km of Huxin Road was rehabilitated with intersection channelization, deployment of traffic control equipment, striping and signing, construction of bike lanes, and installation of pedestrian crossings with signals and bus stops. • An area traffic control system was developed under the project. With this system, Anqing traffic police is able to efficiently implement adaptive traffic control systems in the Anqing urban area, monitor the status of traffic operations, and enforce traffic rules. These measures have been effective in preventing traffic congestion from exacerbating further. b. Outcome • Bus travel time on the south-north corridor fell slightly short of the goal (travel time is four minutes over the target and three minutes over the baseline). However, for a proper evaluation of mobility, changes in the traffic environment should also be taken into consideration. Despite a sharp increase in car ownership from 146,788 in 2010 to 259,399 in 2013, and a six-fold increase in daily bus ridership (which improved the throughput of bus traffic - i.e., speed x passenger volume - more than five times) Page 15 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) controlling the increase in travel time to only three to four minutes can be considered a significant achievement under the changed environment. 4) External factors • The opening of a high-speed railway station increased daily railway passengers from 7,000 to 40,000, which in conjunction with a sharp increase in the car ownership, hindered the achievement of Mobility. In terms of Efficiency, the increase in the daily railway passengers contributed to the achievement of the PDO. 22. In summary, the safety target (measured by the number of traffic fatalities and injuries) was significantly exceeded. Efficiency (measured by the daily bus ridership on the corridor and annual bus ridership in the urban area) was fully achieved, considering the significantly exceeded daily bus ridership and almost fully achieved annual bus ridership in the urban area. While the mobility target (measured by bus travel time on the key corridor) was not achieved, the throughput (considering the increase in car ownership and the daily bus ridership) showed remarkable progress in mobility on the key corridors. Consequently, the project in Anqing almost fully achieved its intended outcomes. 23. Achievement of the PDO in Huaibei is rated Substantial. The Huaibei components of the project included: (i) construction of two new roads (Tuohe Road and South Cuifeng Road); (ii) construction of the Tuohe bus depot and 97 bus stops; (iii) rehabilitation of Suixi Road and Huaihai Road; and (iv) procurement of traffic control equipment. The rehabilitation of Huaihai Road and Tuohe bus depot were dropped due to changes in traffic conditions and difficulties in land acquisition respectively. Instead, Huaibei Municipal Government built four bus depots using counterpart funds and a total of nine bus deptos are now in operation. All other project activities were completed and put into operation before the project closing date. 1) Safety a. Output • Prior to the project, traffic and road signs were not well organized, and long-distance traffic and short- distance traffic were mixed in some sections of the Huaihai-Suixi corridor. Pedestrian and bicycle traffic were not properly separated and protected from motorized traffic. The lack of safety measures caused high traffic fatalities and injuries on the Huaihai-Suixi corridor (36 fatalities and injuries in the baseline year of 2008). In order to improve traffic safety, more safe pedestrian crossings were implemented than the target. The distance between safe crossings was reduced by more than the target value. b. Outcome • Since the rehabilitation of the key corridors, including separate lanes for non-motorized transport (NMT), neither road traffic injuries nor fatal accidents on the corridor were reported in 2017. • The recommendations of three planning studies carried out under the project were adopted by Huaibei Municipal Government and have helped in improving traffic safety. Page 16 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) 2) Efficiency a. Output • The originally proposed Tuohe bus maintenance depot was cancelled because of changes in the Huaibei Municipality Land Use Plan and difficulties in land acquisition, and only 146 of the 248 off-street bus parking spaces planned at appraisal were provided. A number of bus priority measures, such as exclusive bus lanes, bus bays, bus prioritized traffic signals, and bus route optimization, could not be implemented due to the cancellation of Huaihai Road rehabilitation. b. Outcome • Bus ridership on the corridor did not meet the target value, as the growth rate of car ownership in Huaibei was the highest among the four project cities and the bus infrastructure planned at appraisal was not fully implemented. The targeted increase in annual bus ridership in the urban area was also not met due to the cancellation of Huaihai Road rehabilitation. 3) Mobility a. Output • The targeted 7 km of new road section was completed and opened to traffic (Tuohe Road in 2013 and South Cuifeng Road in 2016). While Huaihai Road rehabilitation was cancelled, Suixi Road rehabilitation was completed in 2013. b. Outcome • Even though the target for road rehabilitation was not fully achieved due to the cancellation of the Huaihai Road rehabilitation, the completion of other road components improved urban traffic mobility and enabled the target for bus travel time on the main corridor to be achieved. 4) External factors • The very high growth rate of car ownership (the highest among the four project cities) during the project implementation period hindered the achievement of Efficiency. 24. In summary, the safety target (measured by the annual number of traffic fatalities and injuries) was significantly exceeded. Efficiency (measured by daily bus ridership on the corridor and annual bus ridership in the urban area) was not achieved. Mobility (measured by bus travel time on the key corridor) was fully achieved. Consequently, the project substantially achieved its intended outcomes in Huaibei. 25. Achievement of the PDO in Lu’an is rated Substantial. The Lu’an component of the project included: (i) rehabilitation of three roads (Meishan Road, Pihe Road, and Jiefang Road); (ii) construction of three roads (Bagongshan Road, Xicheng Road, and Longhezhong Road); (iii) construction of bus maintenance facilities and bus stops; and (iv) provision of traffic management equipment. Construction works on Longhezhong Road and Xicheng Road were significantly delayed due to the demolition and land acquisition process. However, all activities in Lu’an were completed by project closure. Lu’an Municipal Government adopted the project’s design guidelines (e.g., chanellization of intersections) to other domestic funded projects, based on the experience under this project. Page 17 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) 1) Safety a. Output • The new Bagongshan Road and the rehabilitated Jiefang Road included upgraded traffic control systems and traffic safety facilities (such as sidewalks, pedestrian crosswalks, pedestrian cross-islands at intersections, intersection channelization, and bus bays). The target values of the number of safe pedestrian crossings and the distance between safe crossings were fully achieved. b. Outcome • Road safety and road capacity have been enhanced and the targets of traffic fatalities and injuries were fully achieved. 2) Efficiency a. Output • Lu’an Municipal Government restructured the bus routes and significantly increased the coverage of population with access to bus stops within 300 meters from 29 % to 50%; this is the highest improvement among the four project cities. The key corridors were rehabilitated with additional bus stops and bus bays. A bus maintenance depot was constructed providing 120 off-street bus parking spaces. b. Outcome • The target values for daily bus ridership on the main corridor and annual bus ridership in the urban area have been substantially exceeded. 3) Mobility a. Output • The targeted 13 km of new road section and 6.5 km of road rehabilitation were completed by project closure. b. Outcome • Despite the increase in car ownership (from 213,000 in 2010 to 300,000 in 2013), the two-fold increase in daily bus ridership improved the throughput of bus traffic (speed × passenger volume) and reduced travel time from the baseline of 12 minutes to 10 minutes. However, the reduction achieved missed the target by one minute. Project interventions contributed to managing the growth of urban transport in an orderly fashion. 4) External factors • A significant increase in car ownership hindered the achievement of Mobility targets in Lu’an. 26. In summary, the safety target (measured by the number of traffic fatalities and injuries) was fully achieved. Efficiency (measured by daily bus ridership on the corridor and annual bus ridership in the urban area) was significantly exceeded. While the mobility target (measured by bus travel time on the key corridor) was not achieved, the throughput on the key corridors (considering the increase in car ownership Page 18 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) and daily bus ridership) showed remarkable progress. Consequently, the project almost fully achieved its intended outcomes in Lu’an. 27. Achievement of the PDO in Wuhu is rated High. The Wuhu part of the project was restructured significantly. The North-South corridor improvement and public transport components replaced the construction of the Third Ring Road and improvement of Jihua Road and Yijiang Road. After the 2015 restructuring, the Wuhu component of the project included: (i) procurement of clean energy buses, bus maintenance equipment, and fuel station equipment; (ii) development of intelligent transport systems (ITS) for traffic management and bus operation, including installation of exclusive bus lanes; (iii) improvement of bus stops along three corridors (Changjiang Road, Yinhu Road, Zheshan Road); and (iv) rehabilitation of two bus parking lots at Taogou and Wuhu bus company. All activities have been completed, except for the rehabilitation of the bus parking lot at Wuhu bus company. Wuhu decided not to rehabilitate this parking lot since Wuhu Municipal Government had planned to relocate the Wuhu bus company in 2018. All other activities in Wuhu were completed and put into operation by project closure. 1) Safety a. Output • The number of pedestrian signals installed in Wuhu was 34, which exceeded the original target of 32. • The number of safe pedestrian crossings implemented significantly exceeded the target. b. Outcome • The annual number of traffic fatalities and injuries on Changjiang Road, Yinhu Road and Zheshan Road in Wuhu declined dramatically (from the baseline of 157 to 30 in 2017) after the rehabilitated traffic corridor was put back into operation in July 2017 with traffic safety facilities installed. 2) Efficiency a. Output • A total of 715 buses (including 469 gas-electric hybrid buses and 246 CNG buses), which comprised around 22 percent of the Wuhu bus fleet, were procured and put into operation. Each of these buses has a low floor and air conditioning that ensured more comfortable travel for passengers 4. • Bus maintenance equipment procured under the project enhanced the maintenance capacity and productivity of the Wuhu bus company. b. Outcome • The buses and bus maintenance equipment procured under the project led to increased bus ridership in the urban area from 135.4 million to 175.6 million and daily bus ridership on the main corridors from 323,000 to 377,000, both of which significantly exceed the target. 4In the survey conducted by Wuhu Bus Company, the participants stated that they were satisfied to ride on the new buses procured by the project. Page 19 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) 3) Mobility a. Output • Three corridors (with a total length of 30.2 km) were improved. Intelligent traffic management systems developed under the project improved mobility on the corridors by providing prioritized traffic signal timing for buses on the road networks. This is an exemplary case of collaboration for traffic management between traffic police and the municipal government entities (such as the transport bureau). b. Outcome • Travel times on buses on the main corridors were reduced as per targets. 4) External factors • Wuhu component was restructured in 2015 to reflect the complete change in project activities in Wuhu. 28. In summary, the safety target (measured by the number of traffic fatalities and injuries) was significantly exceeded. Efficiency (measured by daily bus ridership on the key corridor and annual bus ridership in the urban area) was fully achieved. Mobility (measured by bus travel time on the three key corridors) was fully achieved. Consequently, the project in Wuhu fully achieved its intended outcomes. Justification of Overall Efficacy Rating 29. The overall efficacy of the project is rated Substantial. Project activities in Anqing, Huaibei, and Lu’an, as well as the revised activities in Wuhu, were completed and the PDO was almost fully achieved as summarized in Table 2 below. Table 2 Summary of City-level Consolidated Efficacy Ratings Rating (Achievement5: %) City Safety Efficiency Mobility Summary (decrease in fatality and injury) (increase in bus ridership) (decrease in bus travel time) Anqing High (200%) 4 Substantial (2,398%/92%) 3 Negligible (-300%) 1 Substantial 2.7 Huaibei High (200%) 4 Negligible (21%/28%) 1 Substantial (100%) 3 Substantial 2.7 Lu'an Substantial (100%) 3 High (699%/212%) 4 Modest (67%) 2 Substantial 3 Wuhu High (334%) 4 High (104%/148%) 4 High (111%) 4 High 4 Rating High 3.8 Substantial 3 Substantial 2.5 Substantial 3.1 5Note: High: 4 (3.5~4), Substantial: 3 (2.5~3.4), Modest: 2 (1.5~2.4), Negligible: 1 (1~1.4), according to 4-point scale presented in Bank guidance on Implementation Completion and Results Report (ICR) for Investment Project Financing (IPF) Operations − ℎ (%) = ( ) × 100 − Page 20 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) C. EFFICIENCY Assessment of Efficiency and Rating6 30. For the examination of the economic viability of the project components, a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) - consistent with the analysis at project appraisal - was employed. The main project benefits identified in the analysis are reduced congestion, time savings for pedestrians, bicycle riders, bus and auto passengers, increased safety, and avoidance of exposure to air pollution caused by heavy traffic in the non-project scenario. In the medium and long term, the project should boost the regional economic development of the four cities in a sustainable way, mainly through high-quality low-carbon urban public transport supporting “green growth”. The quantified benefits include savings in passenger travel time costs, avoidance of exposure to carbon emission, and avoidance of road accidents over the assumed project life. Non-quantified benefits include improved convenience and comfort for bus passengers, bicycle users and pedestrians, and improved traffic management efficiency in the project cities. The economic costs of the project include capital investments and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs over the project life. 31. The net present value (NPV) of the net economic benefits of the completed project is estimated to be RMB 933 million, the economic internal rate of return (EIRR) of the Project is 23.5%, and the benefit- cost ratio (BCR) is 2.18. The EIRRs of project activities in Anqing, Huaibei, Lu’an and Wuhu are estimated to be 23.6%, 24.4%, 28.8% and 20.8%, respectively. The results of the analyses are presented in Table 3. Sensitivity analysis assumes a 20% increase in total cost and a 20% decrease in total benefit. The EIRR of the entire project remains robust at 17.2% under these conditions. Annex 4 provides more details of the economic analyses. Table 3: Results of Economic Analysis at City Level City Appraisal (2010) Restructuring (2015) Completion (2017) EIRR (%) 18.8 - 23.6 Anqing NPV (US$, millions) * 20.1 - 25.6 EIRR (%) 16.0 - 24.4 Huaibei NPV (US$, millions) * 25.7 - 28.2 EIRR (%) 15.9 - 28.8 Lu’an NPV (US$, millions) * 21.9 - 42.6 EIRR (%) 17.7 18.0 20.8 Wuhu NPV (US$, millions) * 135.4 74.4* 47.3 EIRR (%) 17.2 - 23.5 Total NPV (US$, millions) ** 203.1 - 143.7 * NPV of Wuhu at restructuring was US$ 116.9 million for the year 2015 and it was converted to US$ 74.4 million for the year 2011 at the time the NPV was calculated. ** A discount rate of 12 percent was used for calculation at all stages 6The coverage of the cost benefit analysis, the assumptions, and the factors contributing to the EIRR and NPV is explained in Annex 4. Page 21 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) 32. Design and Implementation. The project was appraised in entirety and project implementation was rated Moderately Satisfactory during the first three years of implementation. As discussed in Paragraph 13, significant changes were made to project activities during implementation in each of the four cities; the changes were particularly drastic in the case of Wuhu. New activities identified to replace dropped activities required fresh appraisal, including technical, economic, environmental and social aspects. These changes resulted in the project needing to be restructured four times - in 2012, 2015, 2016, and 2017 – covering changes to (i) component costs, (ii) financing plan, (iii) reallocation between disbursement categories, and (iv) two changes to the closing date. There were delays in land acquisition and resettlement; at project closing 473 households had to be resettled (68 in Huaibei and 405 in Lu’an) and at the time of the ICR (December 2018), 121 households in Lu’an remain to be resettled. Competitive bidding under the Bank procurement guidelines resulted in loan savings. As a result of these changes during implementation, the loan closing date had to be extended by 23 months and an amount of US$22.36 million (22.36% of the loan) was cancelled after the closing date. 33. Rating of Efficiency. Taking into account the results of the cost benefit analysis (CBA) as well as the difficulties encountered during implementation, efficiency is rated Modest. D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING 34. Based on the discussions above and the ratings of Relevance of the PDO (Substantial), Efficacy (Substantial), and Efficiency (Modest), the overall outcome of the project is rated Moderately Satisfactory. E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS (IF ANY) Gender 35. At appraisal, women’s groups were consulted to ensure that their needs and issues specific to women were properly identified and included in project activities. For example, security at bus stops was tightened by installing CCTV cameras and lighted billboard advertisements that keep the bus shelters bright at night. Security on buses was also tightened by installing CCTV cameras, which were monitored real-time through the bus operation center. 36. Results from bus surveys in the project cities confirmed that public transport had more female passengers than male passengers and the proportion of female passengers increased after bus services improved under the project. Therefore, the improvement of bus services in project cities benefited more women than men. Institutional Strengthening 37. The project contributed to the capacity building of government officials and experts in the transportation sector both at the municipal level and at the provincial level. The project was designed to encourage the project cities’ continuous engagement and to ensure that lessons learned from Bank- Page 22 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) financed investments were utilized in subsequent transport projects. The Bank worked with the local PIUs to develop an effective capacity building component to coordinate the work with the relevant municipal departments, e.g., construction bureau, transport bureau, traffic police, public transport companies, and regulators. The capacity building component strengthened peer-to-peer learning across four similar cities through short-term and long-term training courses, workshops and seminars; for example, a training event was organized in August 2011 for mayors and vice mayors from Anhui province. In addition, more than 20 local experts joined the overseas training visits to six countries and were exposed to current good practices in transport, including BRT, road safety, infrastructure construction and management. Since then there has been a significant shift within the municipal departments from isolated supply-oriented traffic management to a more balanced supply-and-demand-oriented traffic management. Important initiatives have been taken to plan, design and construct a multi-modal and comprehensive urban transport system, and to cope with investments and policies in a more integrated way. Mobilizing Private Sector Financing 38. Do not apply. Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity 39. Project investments in public transport benefited the poor, who are the primary users of public transport to access jobs and facilities like schools and hospitals. Improved traffic safety benefited pedestrians and bicyclists, most of whom are poor. Other Unintended Outcomes and Impacts 40. Not available. III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION 41. Comprehensive and effective project design. The project was designed to achieve the benefits of a comprehensive approach with minimal complexity. It focused on the development of key integrated corridors in the four project cities rather than on citywide multi-component urban transport systems. The interventions focused on increasing road capacity, enhancing public transport, and improving traffic safety. The integrated corridor approach adopted in this project offered each of the four selected cities an opportunity to pilot a sustainable urban transport system on one key transport corridors as a demonstration. The project was designed to extend the success of the key integrated corridor approach to improve the performance of the overall network in terms of safety, efficiency and mobility for all road users. Page 23 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) 42. Realistic objective setting and an innovative process for the identification of project components. The original project design proposed by the cities was skewed towards the needs of motor vehicle users and focused on the enhancement of road capacity by constructing new roads and enlarging existing roads. The project design was refined to include a public transport component and activities to improve the safety of vulnerable road users. A detailed set of issues and specific problems related to transportation were identified by applying a structured public participation process that is an innovative and distinguishing feature of this project. It was agreed that the findings of the public participation process should provide an important platform for the cities to build their transport plans and policies for the implementation period of the Bank financed project. The project sought to improve mobility on selected key corridors in the project cities keeping in mind safety and efficiency. 43. Simple design of the Results Framework. During the preparation of the project it was a challenge to reconcile the focus on outcome-based measurement and evaluation with the clients’ initial focus on outputs. The design of the Results Framework was kept simple, and key quantitative outcome indicators were chosen to evaluate improvements in the performance of the key corridors in terms of traffic safety, mobility, and efficiency. However, M&E Design could have been more effective, as discussed in the section on M&E Design in paragraph 52. 44. Risks were adequately identified, and appropriate mitigation measures were put in place. Project preparation identified the substantial risks to achieving the PDO and appropriate mitigation measures were put in place. Specifically, the risk of congestion caused by increased motorization was identified as a substantial risk to the outcome of the project, and bus priority measures were proposed to preserve the mobility of bus passengers. By the completion of the project, it turned out that there was a surge in car ownership, especially in Anqing and Lu’an. Resettlement was also identified as substantial risk, and RAPs were satisfactorily prepared and officially endorsed by the project cities. However, the slow progress in land acquisition in Huaibei and Lu’an delayed the implementation of the project. The lack of timely counterpart financing was identified as a modest risk that could delay implementation, based on the assessment of the fiscal capacity of the project cities. It was also expected that the delay in one or more of project cities might have effects on the other cities. 45. Readiness for implementation. The Project met the regional criteria for readiness for implementation. Institutional arrangements, including staff for key functions (e.g., environmental and social safeguards, technical and engineering quality assurance, procurement and financial management) were in place. B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION 46. Multiple Restructurings of the Project. The changes required to be made to project activities in Wuhu, Huaibei, and Anqing (see below) delayed project implementation and the project was in problem status with implementation progress (IP) rated Moderately Unsatisfactory between December 2013 and December 2016, i.e., about three years. These changes were addressed through a two-step restructuring: the first-step restructuring focused on the changes in the Wuhu component, while the second-step restructuring in 2016 focused on changes to the Huaibei component. In addition, the loan closing date Page 24 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) was extended during the restructuring in 2016 and in 2017. 47. Drastic Changes to Project Activities in Wuhu. As discussed in Paragraph 13, drastic changes were made to the Wuhu component of the project (which comprised almost 50% of the appraised project) at the request of the municipal government. Although the achievement of the PDO in Wuhu is still rated High despite these changes, the restructuring of the project in 2015 to accommodate these changes and to include new activities to replace the dropped activities contributed to the 23-month extension of the loan closing date. 48. Changes to the Huxin Corridor in Anqing. After a long discussion between Anqing municipal government and the Bank from 2010 to 2014, it was agreed to change the middle segment of Huxin Road from dual-two lanes to dual-three lanes, with one lane in each direction being reserved for bus priority, and with bicycle lanes and pedestrian sidewalks being provided. The cross-section in the northern segment was changed to eight lanes. 49. Changes to project activities in Huaibei. In Huaibei, the rehabilitation of Huaihai Road was dropped due to the change in traffic conditions and the Tuohe Bus Depot was dropped due to difficulties in land acquisition. These changes were affected in the 2016 restructuring. 50. Delays in land acquisition and resettlement. Difficulties in land acquisition led to the Tuohe bus depot in Huaibei being dropped from the project. In Lu’an, the construction of the Longhezhong Road and Xicheng Road were significantly delayed due to land acquisition. As discussed in the Social section in paragraph 58, involuntary resettlement triggered by the project in Huaibei and Lu’an was not completed at project closing. There is residual resettlement in Lu’an, which is scheduled to be completed in 2020. 51. Loan savings. Loan savings of about US$22 million were cancelled at the time of loan closing. These loan savings arose mainly from lower contract values from competitive bidding, financing of some project activities by using counterpart funds, and cancellation of some project activities. To use the loan savings, fresh appraisal for the new activities was required, including technical, economic, environmental and social aspects. Because of the multiple restructurings discussed in paragraph 46 and considering the relatively long domestic approval process, APMO and the project cities decided not to propose new activities to use the loan savings and instead to cancel the unutilized portion of the loan at project closing. IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) M&E Design 52. A simplified set of outcome indicators, primarily on corridor-specific outcomes, were well- selected to reflect the PDO and the operation’s theory of change. However, there was scope for improvement in the Results Framework: the lack of clear definitions and methodology for data collection for some of the indicators; the PDO indicator “safety on the corridor” in Wuhu should have included both Page 25 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) the annual number of fatalities and injuries on the corridor as in other cities, instead of only the number of fatalities; an intermediate indicator on the number of km of road reconstruction in Lu’an should have been included; and indicators on social aspects, besides the number of female beneficiaries, were missing. The project M&E work was to be contracted out to well-qualified institutions to undertake monitoring, analysis, and periodic reporting on the outcome and intermediate indicators. M&E Implementation 53. During M&E implementation, the M&E consultant clarified the methodology for monitoring the indicators. During the 2015 restructuring, the M&E was revised to accommodate the changes in project components. Overall, M&E data was collected regularly, analyzed in a methodologically sound manner and reported through semi-annual progress reports. During project supervision, the Bank closely monitored data collection and evaluation to ensure the quality of data provided by APMO. M&E Utilization 54. A consistent, periodically updated flow of M&E data during implementation enabled APMO and the Bank to monitor implementation closely and evaluate progress toward achieving the PDO. The M&E reports contributed to the identification of problems faced by the project during the period December 2013 to December 2016 (when IP was rated Moderately Unsatisfactory) and the subsequent restructurings of the project in 2015 and 2016. APMO and the Project Implementation Units (PIUs) incorporated the monitoring indicators and methodologies developed during the Project as part of their ongoing management and operations. Justification of Overall Rating of Quality of M&E 55. Based on the above discussion on M&E Design, Implementation, and Utilization, project M&E is rated Modest. B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE 56. Environment Safeguards. The project was assigned Category B and triggered Bank environmental safeguard policies OP4.01 on Environmental Assessment (EA), and OP4.11 on Physical Cultural Resources. An overall environmental impact assessment (EIA) was prepared for the project, along with standalone Environmental Management Plans (EMPs) for each of the four project cities, in line with national policies and Bank requirements; these were publicly disclosed prior to appraisal. The EMPs were implemented in a generally satisfactory manner. Issues identified during EMP implementation were addressed promptly. 57. Social Safeguards. The project triggered the Bank social safeguard policy on Involuntary Resettlement (OP/BP 4.12). Project social safeguard instruments, including the Resettlement Policy Framework (RPF) and Resettlement Action Plans (RAPs), were prepared in line with Bank requirements and were disclosed prior to project appraisal. The implementation of the RPF and the RAPs were Page 26 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) monitored by an independent external agency. Bank supervision missions carried out regular field reviews, reviewed the external reports, and addressed RAP implementation issues in discussions with APMO and the PIUs. The project complied with the triggered safeguards policies. 58. Ongoing Resettlement. At project closing, 473 HHs (68 in Huaibei and 405 in Lu’an) were to be resettled to permanent housing. At the time of drafting this ICR in December 2018, this number had come down significantly (68 HHs in Huaibei and 284 HHs in Lu’an already resettled to their permanent housing) and only 121 HHs in Lu’an were not yet relocated to permanent housing; among which, 65 HHs are expected to move to permanent housing in August 2019, and 56 HHs in 2020. This has been caused by the delay in the construction of large scale resettlement housing by Lu’an, where project affected HHs as well as others are to be settled. The resettlement houses for this project are only a small part of large scale resettlement sites constructed by respective local governments for displaced people not only under this project bus also for some other domestic projects. Project officials carried out informed and adequate two-way communications on the impacts of the project. According to the external monitoring consultant’s report, the transition subsidy was paid in conformity with local policy. The project affected persons were compensated timely to rehabilitate their livelihoods and the transitional supports were doubly paid due to extensions of the transitional period. According to local leasing market information, the transition subsidy received by the remaining 121 Project affected HHs is well sufficient to pay rental for the similar housing to their original property. The external monitoring consultant will continue to monitor and evaluate the remaining resettlement until its completion and will provide status reports to the Bank each quarter. The Bank will also continue to monitor the status of this pending resettlement under Anhui Road Maintenance Innovation and Demonstration Project (P153173) until its satisfactory completion. 59. Financial Management (FM). The Project generally maintained an acceptable FM system. All financial records, including financial statements, ledgers, invoices, payment statements, and other necessary supporting documents were systematically maintained. The project financial management system provided accurate and timely information on the use of loan proceeds. 60. The Project prepared and submitted semi-annual interim financial reports (IFRs) in accordance with the accounting guidelines issued by the Ministry of Finance (MOF). The annual project audit reports were submitted to the Bank on time and were issued with unqualified (clean) opinions by Anhui Provincial Audit Office. During the first-year audit, the auditors identified some issues with the bank account for counterpart funds; these were properly addressed by APMO and the PIUs. There were no ineligible expenditures under the project. 61. Procurement. Procurement under the project complied with Bank Procurement Guidelines, as well as China’s procurement laws and regulations. The Procurement Plan was prepared and updated based on changes to the project activities in the four project cities, as well as the latest status of procurement. APMO established clear contract management procedures. There were no cases requiring declaration of misprocurement. Page 27 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) C. BANK PERFORMANCE Quality at Entry 62. The Bank ensured that project objectives were aligned with existing Government priorities and the Bank CPS. It provided guidance on project design based on lessons learned from previous projects and international good practice. The above sections on Context and Key Factors during Project Preparation highlight that: (i) project objectives were realistic; (ii) project design introduced innovations and was comprehensive, but was not too complex; and (iii) M&E design was appropriate to monitor project progress, but had areas for improvement in terms of indicator definitions, methodologies for collection, etc. The Bank carried out technical, financial, and economic appraisal as per Bank requirements. Environmental and social considerations were assessed properly, appropriate environmental and social safeguards policies were triggered, and the Bank provided guidance on the preparation of safeguard documents in line with national policies and Bank requirements; it also ensured their timely disclosure prior to appraisal. The Bank carried out fiduciary capacity and risk assessments and ensured that appropriate risk mitigation measures were incorporated in the procurement and FM arrangements. Risks to achieving the PDO were generally assessed satisfactorily and appropriate mitigation measures were put in place; however, the implementation capacity of the municipal government agencies was overestimated, along with the ability to achieve coordination between many agencies. 63. Project preparation was efficient: the PCN review was conducted in September 2008, the project was appraised in June 2009, and was presented to the Board in May 2010. The project however had a slow start because of weaknesses in implementation capacity and difficulties in coordination. Quality of Supervision 64. During the seven years of project implementation between November 2010 and December 2017, besides regular missions, the Bank conducted additional technical visits, conducted workshops, held review meetings and consultations, as well as numerous discussions with experts and consultants. Bank missions included an appropriate mix of expertise and experience. The Bank conducted the mid-term review on schedule in August 2013 and identified implementation issues early. 65. The Bank discussed the changes being proposed by the municipalities, especially in Wuhu and Huaibei, and downgraded the project to problem status from December 2013 to December 2016 until: (i) the changes to the project were assessed and agreed upon; (ii) the changes were formalized through restructurings in 2015 and 2016; and (iii) improvements in implementation were evident. However, the Bank missed an opportunity to address the M&E design issues during these restructurings. In addition, because the main restructurings were only completed in 2015 and 2016, it was not possible to estimate the potential loan savings and agree with APMO and the MOF on canceling these savings; as a result, about US$22 million of the loan was cancelled only at the time of project closing. 66. Compliance with Bank Fiduciary and safeguards requirements was monitored on an on-going basis and guidance was provided in a timely manner to address issues identified. The Bank identified the remaining relocation issues at the end of the project for the project affected households in Lu’an and Page 28 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) Huaibei and has made arrangements to complete the currently pending relocation of the households in Lu’an as per Bank requirements by 2020. 67. The Bank has also held discussions with APMO and the municipal governments to ensure that appropriate arrangements are in place to ensure proper operation and maintenance of assets created under the project. Justification of Overall Rating of Bank Performance 68. Based on the discussion above on Bank Performance in Ensuring Quality at Entry and Quality of Supervision, overall Bank performance is rated Moderately Satisfactory. D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 69. Project outputs and outcomes are expected to be sustained and there are no major risks, as Government ownership remains strong and beneficiary acceptance is not in doubt. Existing agencies in the project cities will be responsible for operating and maintaining the roads constructed and rehabilitated under the project. The daily management and maintenance of the traffic control system and traffic management system is the responsibility of the Traffic Management Bureaus in the project cities. Bus companies in project cities will be responsible for daily bus operation, on-going operation and maintenance of bus stops along the corridors, the exclusive bus lane system, and bus depots. There is adequate qualified staff, and operation and maintenance costs will be allocated in the fiscal budgets of the local governments. 70. The Bank will continue close monitoring to ensure that the remaining project affected HHs in Lu’an are resettled in permanent housing as per the agreed schedule. V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 71. There are several observations from the project that are relevant for other upcoming Bank Urban Transport projects in China and elsewhere: i. Integration/coordination across agencies is critical in urban transport projects. It was noted that the cooperation and coordination between different municipal agencies is critical to the success of the urban transport project, such as integrated corridors development in this project, especially in terms of the bus signal priority at junctions. Weaknesses in communication resulted in delayed domestics approval for changes to the project. In addition, the multiple layers of review and clearance procedures slowed project implementation. Project design needs require coordination into every stage of the project across relevant pubic transport, construction and traffic management agencies in the project cities right from preparation to implementation. In the long term, the cities shall build on the experience and develop a permanent and sustainable mechanism Page 29 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) (systemic structure) for coordination /cooperation across agencies. ii. Pilot demonstration as a learning tool for medium-sized cities. The medium-sized cities of the project lacked resources to improve their public transport systems, although most travelers relied on public transit. In general, the majority of city traffic was concentrated on a few key transport corridors in these cities. Focused integrated development of these key corridors - through coordinated improvements in public transport operations, on-street priority for buses, enhancements to the fixed infrastructure, traffic engineering improvements, safety enhancements for pedestrians and cyclists, and road improvements - contributed to improving mobility in a safe and efficient manner. The project’s approach of pilot integrated development of key corridors is consistent with the Chinese practice of using such pilot demonstrations as a learning tool for replication in other medium-sized/small-sized cities, such as Xinjiang Yining Urban Transport Improvement Project (P126454). Such pilot demonstrations could be tried in medium-sized cities in other countries. iii. Adopting sustainable urban transport principles requires persistence. The original car-oriented infrastructure project design was modified to include more public transport components and project activities aimed to improve the safety of vulnerable road users in line with national policies and international good practice. Nevertheless, during project implementation, the municipal governments were keen to build roads wider than agreed at appraisal, which resulted in a major restructuring of the Wuhu component and conversion of financing from the Bank loan to counterpart funding in the other three cities. Following intensive discussions between the Bank team and Wuhu, the Wuhu component was restructured a adhere to the original vision of a public transport-oriented project to improve the safety for vulnerable road users. iv. Identify and resolve land acquisition and resettlement either during preparation or early in project implementation. Despite the project being fully appraised, some activities had to be dropped due to land acquisition/resettlement issues, while some resettlement is pending in Lu’an after project closure. Unanticipated issues relating to land acquisition and resettlement are inevitable in urban transport projects. They can be minimized to the extent possible and where unavoidable, resolved as early as possible through proactive dialogue and follow up with the client and cities’ senior leadership. Experienced external social monitoring consultants are important to provide guidance and conduct regular monitoring. Timely and intensive consultations with project affected persons are critical in resolving resettlement issues. . Page 30 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS A. RESULTS INDICATORS A.1 PDO Indicators Objective/Outcome: Improve mobility on main corridors of Anqing, Huaibei, Lu'an and Wuhu in a safe and efficient manner Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Safety on the corridors Number 215.00 261.00 261.00 42.00 (Fatality and Injury) 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Anqing Huxin Rd (Railway Number 8.00 5.00 5.00 2.00 Station to Yanjiang Rd) corridor 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Huaibei Huaihai Rd -Suixi Rd Number 36.00 18.00 18.00 0.00 Corridor 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Lu'an (Jiefang Rd, Meishan Number 14.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 Rd and Bagongshan Rd) 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Page 31 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) Wuhu: Binjiang Rd, Yinhu Number 157.00 138.00 138.00 30.00 Rd, and Zheshan Rd 31-Dec-2012 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Comments (achievements against targets): Exceeded by 84% in total, the target was fully achieved for four project cities. The baseline and target value for Wuhu was revised (157 for baseline and 138 for target, rather than 17 and 12 in the PAD) and the baseline year was reset to December 31, 2012 (rather than December 31, 2008 in the PAD) during the second restructuring in 2015. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Increased bus ridership on Number 498680.00 571316.00 571316.00 634838.00 key corridors 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Anqing Number 5680.00 6816.00 6816.00 32921.00 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Huaibei Number 120000.00 132000.00 132000.00 122500.00 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Lu'an Number 50000.00 57500.00 57500.00 102417.00 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Page 32 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) Wuhu Number 323000.00 375000.00 375000.00 377000.00 31-Dec-2012 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Comments (achievements against targets): Exceeded by 11% in total, the targets were fully achieved for project cities except for Huaibei. The target value for Huaibei fell short by 7%. The cancellation of Huaibei road improvement with a number of bus priority measures affected the achievement of the target for the daily bus ridership on the corridor. The baseline and target value for Wuhu was revised (323,000 for baseline and 375,000 for target, rather than 210,000 and 241,500 in the PAD) and the baseline year was reset to December 31, 2012 (rather than December 31, 2008 in the PAD) during the second restructuring in 2015. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Increased annual bus Number 283650.00 348640.00 348640.00 366189.00 ridership in urban area (thousands) 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Anqing Number 38300.00 49790.00 49790.00 48910.00 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Huaibei Number 65850.00 79020.00 79020.00 69550.00 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Page 33 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) Lu'an Number 44100.00 57330.00 57330.00 72169.00 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Wuhu Number 135400.00 162500.00 162500.00 175560.00 31-Dec-2012 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Comments (achievements against targets): Exceeded by 5% in total, the targets were fully achieved for Lu'an and Wuhu. The target value for Anqing fell short by 2% and was considered fully (98%) achieved. The target value for Huaibei fell short by 12% mainly because the cancellation of Huaibei road improvement, which affected the achievement of the target for the annual bus ridership in urban area. The baseline and target value of annual bus ridership in urban area for Huaibei was 107,800,000 and 129,360,000 at both project appraisal and restructuring. The current value (65,850,000 and 79,020,000) came from the last ISR. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Lower Travel Time by Bus Minutes 210.00 185.00 185.00 188.00 between selected points 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Anqing: from Railway Minutes 20.00 19.00 19.00 23.00 Station to Yanjiangsi Station 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Page 34 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) Huaibei: from Dongganglu Minutes 30.00 27.00 27.00 27.00 interchange to Liuqiao Line 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Lu'an: from Dabieshan Rd to Minutes 12.00 9.00 9.00 10.00 Meishan Rd 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Wuhu Minutes 148.00 130.00 130.00 128.00 31-Dec-2012 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Binjiang Rd Minutes 52.00 46.00 46.00 44.00 31-Dec-2012 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Yinhu Rd Minutes 48.00 42.00 42.00 42.00 31-Dec-2012 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Zheshan Rd Minutes 48.00 42.00 42.00 42.00 Comments (achievements against targets): The targets were achieved for Huaibei and Wuhu. The target value fell short for Lu'an by 1 minute and for Anqing by 4 minutes. A sharp increase in the car ownership in the city had impact to travel time on the corridors. The baseline and target value for Wuhu was revised and Page 35 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) the baseline year was reset to December 31, 2012 (rather than December 31, 2008 in the PAD) during the second restructuring in 2015. For Wuhu, it included 3 roads: Changjiang Road, Yinhu Road and Zheshan Road. It should be Changjiang Road, rather than Binjiang Road. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Bus travel time on three Minutes 148.00 130.00 130.00 128.00 corridors at Wuhu 31-Dec-2012 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Binjiang Rd Minutes 52.00 46.00 46.00 44.00 31-Dec-2012 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Yinhu Rd Minutes 48.00 42.00 42.00 42.00 31-Dec-2012 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Comments (achievements against targets): The information was duplicate with the above. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Roads constructed, non-rural Kilometers 0.00 21.50 21.50 21.50 Page 36 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 21-Dec-2017 Comments (achievements against targets): The targets were fully achieved. This indicator should be an intermediate result indicator, the current one listed at a PDO indicator came from the last ISR. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Roads rehabilitated, Non- Kilometers 0.00 18.50 18.50 15.88 rural 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 21-Dec-2017 Comments (achievements against targets): The targets were fully achieved except for Huaibei. Huaihai road improvement was dropped from the project because Huaibei Municipality will improve Huaihai Road with domestic funding in the future. No road rehabilitated indicator for Lu'an in the PAD, which was corrected during the implementation. This indicator should be an intermediate result indicator, the current one listed at a PDO indicator came from the last ISR. A.2 Intermediate Results Indicators Component: Integrated Corridor Improvement Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Page 37 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) Distance between safe Meter(m) 737.00 300.00 300.00 267.00 crossings 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Anqing: Huxin Rd Meter(m) 500.00 300.00 300.00 300.00 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Huaibei: Huaihai - Suixi Meter(m) 900.00 300.00 300.00 200.00 Corridor 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Lu'an Corridors Meter(m) 810.00 300.00 300.00 300.00 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Comments (achievements against targets): The targets were exceeded for project cities. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of safe pedestrian Number 406.00 350.00 350.00 350.00 crossings implemented - Wuhu 31-Dec-2012 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Comments (achievements against targets): Page 38 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) This indicator name should be "distance between safe crossings at Wuhu", unit of measure is meter (m). The baseline value was revised (406 instead of 800 in the PAD) and the baseline year was reset to December 31, 2012 (rather than December 31, 2008 in the PAD) during the second restructuring in 2015 due to the contents change in Wuhu. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of safe pedestrian Number 0.00 164.00 164.00 236.00 crossings implemented 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Anqing Number 0.00 10.00 10.00 16.00 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Huaibei Number 0.00 30.00 30.00 35.00 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Lu'an Number 0.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Wuhu Number 0.00 109.00 109.00 160.00 31-Dec-2012 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Comments (achievements against targets): Page 39 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) The targets were exceeded for all project cities. The target value was revised (109 instead of 50 in the PAD) and the baseline year was reset to December 31, 2012 (rather than December 31, 2008 in the PAD) during the second restructuring in 2015. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of bus off-street Number 0.00 597.00 597.00 511.00 parking spaces 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Anqing Number 0.00 229.00 229.00 245.00 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Huaibei Number 0.00 248.00 248.00 146.00 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Lu'an Number 0.00 120.00 120.00 120.00 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Comments (achievements against targets): The targets were exceeded except for Huaibei because Tuohe bus maintenance depot was cancelled due to changes in the Huaibei Municipality Land Use Plan. Instead, Huaibei Municipality has constructed four bus depots with domestic funding since 2014. Currently, nine bus depots are available for the 350 buses operating in Huaibei. Page 40 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of pedestrian signals Number 0.00 32.00 32.00 34.00 installed at Wuhu 31-Dec-2012 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Comments (achievements against targets): The targets were fully exceeded. This indicator was introduced during the second restructuring in 2015. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of resurfaced bus Number 0.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 parking lot at Wuhu 31-Dec-2012 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Comments (achievements against targets): The target value fell short by one parking lot because rehabilitation of the existing parking lot at Wuhu bus company headquarters was cancelled since the Wuhu Municipal Government planned to relocate the Wuhu bus company in 2018. This indicator was introduced through the second restructuring in 2015. Component: Local Access and Freight Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Page 41 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) Target Completion Roads constructed, non-rural Kilometers 0.00 21.50 21.50 21.50 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Anqing: East yanjiang Rd Kilometers 0.00 1.50 1.50 1.50 and Shuguang Rd 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Huaibei: Tuohe Rd and Kilometers 0.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 Cuifengnanlu 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Lu'an: Bagongshan Rd, Kilometers 0.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 Xicheng Rd, Pihe Rd and Longhezhong Rd 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Comments (achievements against targets): The targets were fully achieved. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Roads rehabilitated, Non- Kilometers 0.00 18.50 18.50 15.88 rural 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Anqing: Huxin Rd Kilometers 0.00 5.00 5.00 5.30 Page 42 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Huaibei: Huaihai Rd and Kilometers 0.00 7.00 7.00 4.38 Suixi Rd 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Lu'an Kilometers 0.00 6.50 6.50 6.50 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Comments (achievements against targets): The targets were fully achieved except for Huaibei. Huaihai road improvement was dropped from the projet because Huaibei Municipality will improve Huaihai Road with domestic funding in the future. No road rehabilitated indicator for Lu'an in the PAD, which was corrected during the implementation. Component: Public Transport Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Coverage % population with Text See Below See Below See Below See Below access to bus stop within 300/500 meters 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Anqing Text 41% / 63% 50% / 90% 50% / 90% 55% / 89% 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Page 43 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) Huaibei Text 49% / 72% 50% / 90% 50% / 90% 60% / 85% 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Lu'an Text 29% / 85% 50% / 90% 50% / 90% 50% / 90% 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Wuhu Text 48% / 77% 50% / 90% 50% / 90% 77% / 95% 31-Dec-2012 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Comments (achievements against targets): The targets were fully achieved for Lu'an and Wuhu. For Wuhu, the baseline value was revised (48%/77% for baseline, rather than 49%/77% in the PAD) and the baseline year was reset to December 31, 2012 (rather than December 31, 2008 in the PAD) during the second restructuring in 2015 due to the contents change in Wuhu. For Anqing, the target value for coverage population with access to bus stop within 300 meters was exceeded, the target value for coverage population with access to bus stop within 500 meters fell short by 1% and was considered achieved (99%). For Huaibei, the target value for coverage population with access to bus stop within 300 meters was exceeded, the target value for coverage population with access to bus stop within 500 meters fell short by 5% and was considered achieved (95%). Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of buses in service in Number 2039.00 3000.00 3000.00 3019.00 urban area 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Anqing Number 292.00 500.00 500.00 530.00 Page 44 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Huaibei Number 287.00 500.00 500.00 589.00 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Lu'an Number 260.00 400.00 400.00 396.00 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Wuhu Number 1200.00 1600.00 1600.00 1504.00 31-Dec-2012 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Comments (achievements against targets): The targets were fully achieved for Anqing and Huaibei. For Lu'an, the target value fell short by 4 buses in service in urban area and was considered achieved (99%). For Wuhu, the baseline and target value was revised (1,200 and 1,600 for baseline and target, rather than 803 and 1,000 in the PAD) and the baseline year was reset to December 31, 2012 (rather than December 31, 2008 in the PAD) during the second restructuring in 2015. The target value was considered achieved for Wuhu (94%). Component: Capacity Building Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of people Number 0.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 Page 45 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) completing study 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 tours/training/seminars Comments (achievements against targets): Target met. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of plans/strategies Number 0.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 adopted using outputs of Capacity Building component 31-Dec-2008 31-Jan-2016 31-Jan-2016 31-Dec-2017 Comments (achievements against targets): Target met. Page 46 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) B. KEY OUTPUTS BY COMPONENT Objective/Outcome Improve mobility on selected main corridors of the municipalities of Anqing, Huaibei, Lu’an and Wuhu in Anhui Province in a safe and efficient manner 1. PDO indicator 1: Safety on the corridors 2. PDO indicator 2: Increased bus ridership on key corridor and urban Outcome Indicators area 3. PDO indicator 3: Lower travel times by bus between selected points on key corridor 1. Distance between safe crossings (m) 2. Number of safe pedestrian crossings implemented 3. Number of bus off-street parking spaces 4. Number of km of new road completed 5. Number of km of old road reconstruction Intermediate Results Indicators 6. Coverage % population with access to bus stop within 300/500 meters (city proper) 7. Number of buses in service in urban area 8. Number of people competing study tours/ training/ seminars 9. Number of plans/strategies adopted using outputs of capacity building component 1. 236 of safe pedestrian crossings implemented 2. 349 of pedestrian signals installed 3. 21.5 km of new roads constructed 4. 15.88 km of old roads improved Key Outputs by Component 5. Two bus depots built (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 1) 6. Four bus terminals built 7. A bus maintenance center built 8. A bus parking lot surface rehabilitated 9. 511 of bus off-street parking spaces provided 10. 715 clean energy buses procured Page 47 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) 11. Project management consulting works 12. Three plans carried out 13. Training and workshops Page 48 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION A. TASK TEAM MEMBERS Name Role Preparation Shomik Raj Mehndiratta Task Team Leader Syed Ahmed Lead Counsel Junxue Chu Senior Loan Officer Ajay Kumar Peer Reviewer, Lead Urban Transport Specialist Ke Fang Peer Reviewer, Senior Urban Transport Specialist Peng Xuan Team Assistant Said Dahdah Road Safety Specialist Zhai Xiaoke Transport Specialist Eric Ho Transport Specialist/Consultant Xiaomei Duan Transport Specialist/Consultant Wei Li Transport Specialist/Consultant Karl Fjellstromu Transport Specialist/Consultant Zhefu Liu Social Development Specialist Ren Xin Environment Specialist Wang Peishen Environment Specialist/Consultant Guoping Yu Procurement Specialist Zhang Fang Financial Management Analyst George Darido Transport Specialist Graham Smith Transport Specialist/Consultant Supervision/ICR Yuhui Jiao Task Team Leader Yuan Wang Procurement Specialist Fang Zhang Financial Management Specialist Page 49 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) Kishor Uprety Counsel Zhefu Liu Social Specialist Xin Ren Environment Specialist B. STAFF TIME AND COST Staff Time and Cost Stage of Project Cycle No. of staff weeks US$ (including travel and consultant costs) Preparation FY08 9.275 29,856.47 FY09 24.975 163,049.23 FY10 10.900 91,056.84 Total 45.15 283,962.54 Supervision/ICR FY11 16.667 74,213.30 FY12 11.600 61,257.58 FY13 10.800 54,374.17 FY14 9.907 48,849.49 FY15 10.065 33,810.28 FY16 10.800 35,091.39 FY17 10.785 37,842.78 FY18 19.102 80,986.72 FY19 .979 5,946.74 Total 100.71 432,372.45 Page 50 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT Amount at Approval Actual at Project Percentage of Components (US$M) Closing (US$M) Approval (US$M) Intergrated Corridor 201.03 79.45 39.52% Improvement Anqing 26.97 35.48 131.55% Huaibei 12.12 5.55 45.79% Lu’an 14.42 28.93 200.62% Wuhu 147.52 9.49 6.43% Local Access and Freight 79.65 72.05 90.46% Anqing 1.31 2.67 203.82% Huaibei 36.75 37.28 101.44% Lu’an 41.59 32.10 77.18% Wuhu 0.00 0.00 n/a Public Transport (PT) 18.81 79.54 422.86% Anqing 6.52 7.73 118.56% Huaibei 9.19 0.00 0% Lu’an 3.10 2.56 82.58% Wuhu 0.00 69.25 n/a Capacity Building (CB) 1.24 0.79 63.71% Anqing 0.26 0.16 61.54% Huaibei 0.22 0.12 54.55% Lu’an 0.24 0.13 54.17% Wuhu 0.52 0.38 73.08% Front-End Fee 0.26 0.26 100% Total 300.97 232.09 77.11% Note: This project has 22 million loan savings. The original amount of the total project cost (268.72 million) shown in the datasheet did not include the indirect cost, which covered the preparation cost for the FSR and safeguards instruments. Page 51 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY AND CONCLUSION AT PROJCET APPRAISAL 1. A cost-benefit analysis was employed to examine the economic viability of the integrated corridor development component and the local and freight access component at project appraisal. The main benefits identified in the analysis include: increased safety, savings in vehicle operating costs, reduced congestion, and time savings for pedestrians, bicycle riders, bus and auto passengers. In the medium and long term, the project should boost the regional economic development of the four cities in a sustainable way, mainly through supporting “greener growth”, higher quality urban transport services, low-carbon urban transport, and pollution and climate change management. The benefits that were quantified include savings in: a) vehicle operating costs, b) passenger time costs, c) freight time costs, and d) road accident costs over the assumed project life of 20 years. The benefits not quantified include a) improved air quality in project municipalities; b) improved convenience and comfort for bus users, bicycle users and pedestrians; and c) improved traffic management efficiency of the whole urban transport in the project cities. Economic costs of the project were identified as capital investments. The operation and maintenance (O&M) costs over the project life was not specified in the economic analysis of PAD. The economic internal rate of return (EIRR) for the four project municipalities was estimated to vary between 15.9% and 18.8%. Sensitivity analysis (assuming two-year delay in project completion, higher cost, lower benefit, zero growth of time value, and lower traffic projection) showed that the EIRR is higher than the discount rate of 12% for seven out of eight scenarios. One scenario in Wuhu municipality gets an EIRR of 11.7%. The investment is then considered economically feasible and has a risk resistance ability. 2. The project components of the four municipalities were all adjusted to varying extent during project restructuring. Project activities in Wuhu were majorly revised. Project roads under the Integrated Corridor Development component were replaced, and the Public Transport Infrastructure component was changed. A new economic analysis was carried out for the proposed activities in Wuhu as discussed in the Restructuring Paper. The benefits quantified were classified as: a) savings in vehicle operating costs, b) travel time savings for all transport modes, c) reduction in traffic accident costs; and d) emission reduction due to reduced congestion and the use of clean energy buses. The EIRR of the new activities was estimated to be 17.98%. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AT PROJECT COMPLETION 3. The PDO remained the same throughout project implementation. The result framework for Wuhu was revised according to the newly proposed activities. The benefit and cost of the entire project need to be reevaluated. To be specific, adjustments to the original economic analysis should reflect the following considerations: a. PAD’s economic analysis estimated the cost and benefit of the originally proposed Page 52 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) activities. The estimation results for Anqing, Huaibei and Lu’an should be adjusted to reflect changes in project activities in these cities. The estimation result of the newly proposed activities in Wuhu should be reviewed and combined with the estimation results of the activities in the other three municipalities to achieve an integrated evaluation of efficiency for the entire project or majority of the project activities. b. The benefit of less exposure to pollution and carbon emission due to higher adoption and use of public transport and reduced congestion was not measured in the economic analysis of the PAD, while this benefit from the newly proposed activities in Wuhu was measured. Given that pollution reduction is one of the key benefits of this project, this particular benefit from activities in each project municipality was reevaluated. c. Investment as reflected in the total cost of the project is largely reduced due to cancellation of some project activities, lower contract price during project procurement, and lower resettlement cost in certain project locations. According to PMO’s identification, the total investment of the project was reduced from RMB 1.90 billion (US$301 million) to RMB 1.47 billion (US$223 million). d. The impact of the project is higher than expected. The results monitoring indicators show that PDO level indicators in some project municipalities achieved much better performance throughout project implementation as compared to the target value at Appraisal. Daily bus ridership on corridors increased tremendously in key regions in Anqing, Huaibei, and Lu’an. Safety on the corridors also reached a much higher level in Huaibei and Wuhu. Main Assumptions 4. Main assumptions are as follows: a. The life of the project is assumed to be 20 years from the time the construction of the project ended in 2017. The discount rate adopted in this analysis is 12%. b. The number of population and motor vehicles of the four project municipalities from 2011 to 2017 is published by Anhui Statistical Yearbooks. Population through the years 2018 to 2037 was estimated based on UN’s projection on China in the World Population Prospects. Vehicle number through the years 2018 to 2037 was estimated based on OECD’s projection of the economic growth rate of China. The average growth rate per year ranges between 3.5 percent and 5.3 percent. c. The routine maintenance cost of the newly built roads was RMB 30,000 per year in 2017. The existing roads incur maintenance cost in a “non-project scenario”. The Project estimates an increase in the maintenance cost of these roads by RMB 15,000per year. Maintenance cost increases by 3 percent every year thereafter. Significant repairs will happen in the 10th and 17th year. The cost will be 10 times of the maintenance cost in those years. The routine Page 53 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) management fee is RMB 10,000 /km per year. d. Passengers’ time saved is calculated based on the transport mode share of the municipalities. According to the FSRs, the shares of citizens choosing public transportation, private car, moto cycle, bicycle and walking in different municipalities are respectively: 0.4:5:4:36:54 for Anqing (in 2012), 3:11:5:32:49 for Huaibei (in 2010), 17:8:10:30:35 for Lu'an (in 2012), and 20:8:18:25:29 for Wuhu (in 2008). Time cost is estimated according to GDP per capita of the four municipalities. It grows with projected economic growth rate from year 2018 to 2037. e. The cost of carbon emission is assumed to be US$15/tonne of CO2. The costs of traffic accident is RMB 500,000 per death in Anhui as shown in the FSR. f. The residual value of the project roads is 50 percent of the original investment at the end of the project. Baseline and Alternatives 5. The baseline is based on assumptions in a “non-project scenario” in which: (a) the common transport modes of citizens include walking, bicycle, bus and trolley bus, motorcycle, etc.; the travel time of residents is long; the speed of vehicles is limited and will be further reduced with increased traffic volume; (b) branch roads and alleys have little continuity across the main streets of the project cities; the poor road network condition, especially the non-arterial network, affects the safety of cyclists and pedestrian; (c) bus service is at a lower level due to insufficient stops and depots, making public transport less attractive and less competitive. The capacity of buses cannot satisfy the demand of the increasing population. Unsatisfied traffic demand is addressed by walking and non-motorized vehicle which is more time consuming, and private cars which cause higher carbon emission; and (d) traffic management and operation lack the necessary equipment. 6. The project's economic benefit analysis compares the "project scenario" and "non-project scenario" to show transport cost savings based on passenger time cost, road accident cost, and the global benefit of CO2 reduction with improved public transport system. Cost-benefit Analysis 7. The benefit of the activities under Integrated Corridor Development Component and Local Access and Freight Component to be quantified have three main sources: (i). savings in passenger time costs caused by an increase in traffic speed due to the increased use of public transport and consequently less private vehicles on the roads; (ii) savings in road accident costs established according to the lower incidence of motorized vehicle fatalities captured by PDO level indicator 1; and (iii) less exposure to CO2 emission due to increased use of public transport and lesser use of taxis and passenger cars’. Page 54 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) 8. In the “non-project scenario”, the citizens of the project municipalities choose walking, bicycle, bus or trolley bus, motorcycle, taxi, and/or passenger cars for daily transport, as shown in the FSR. The population of the project municipalities had increased throughout the project operation period, and private car ownership had also risen with the development of the local economy. In 2011, the average number of private cars per thousand citizens in the four project municipalities was 45. This number increased to 97 in 2016 and is projected to be 157 in 2027 and 221 in 2037. The citizens choosing to travel by private cars increased proportionally. For Lu'an and Wuhu, the rest of the citizens who did not use cars were split into users of other transport modes according to the mode share data before the project. For Anqing and Huaibei, the number of citizens choosing motorcycle does not grow anymore as the ownership of motorcycle has gradually decreased due to the income effect as discussed in the FSR. The increase in total traffic volume will continuously slow down the driving speed, lower traffic safety, and induce heavy air pollution. 9. In the “project scenario”, total bus ridership on key corridors and urban areas increases significantly. The speed of driving increases due to lowered use of private cars, bicycles, and motorcycles, and consequently less vehicles on the streets. Although increasing total traffic volume will reduce the average travel speed, the total travel time on the corridors will still be shorter than the travel time under the “non-project scenario”. Savings in passenger time cost are estimated based on observed shorter travel time collected by the PDO indicators, taking into consideration an increasing traffic volume. Incidence of road accidents and exposure to CO2 emission will decrease proportionally according to the estimated decrease in total traffic volume under the “project scenario” as compared to the “non-project scenario”. Public Transport Infrastructure and Equipment 10. In the “non-project scenario”, the total number of buses in Wuhu is 990; manual dispatch is needed; and 116 out of 990 original buses provide overtime service. New buses were gradually purchased from 2013 to 2015, and overtime bus service was scrapped. The increased capacity settled a large number of passengers who otherwise would rely on nonmotorized vehicles and private cars. For the passengers who relied on nonmotorized vehicles, time cost was largely saved. For the passengers who relied on private cars, exposure to carbon emission was largely avoided. 11. Results. The net present value (NPV) of the total net economic benefits of the Project is estimated to be RMB 933 million, and the economic internal rate of return (EIRR) of the Project is 23.5%. The benefit and cost of each project city throughout the project operating years is summarized in Table 2. The benefit-cost ratio (BCR) is 2.18. The results of the analysis are presented in Table 1. The EIRRs of project activities in Anqing, Huaibei, Lu’an, and Wuhu are estimated to be 23.6%, 24.4%, 28.8% and 20.8%, respectively. Sensitivity analysis assumes a 20% increase in total cost and a 20% decrease in total benefit. The EIRR of the whole project is reduced to 17.2% under the strict assumption. Page 55 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) Table 1 Results of Economic Analysis Page 56 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) Table 2 Benefit and Cost Summary Table 3 Economic Evaluation Summary NPV City EIRR B/C Ratio EIRR under Sensitivity Test (RMB 10,000) Anqing 16,616 23.60% 2.34 17.69% Huaibei 18,291 24.37% 2.46 18.38% Lu'an 27,682 28.77% 2.73 21.38% Wuhu 30,722 20.78% 1.81 14.65% 4.1 IC 1,116 23.53% 2.07 17.12% 4.2 PT 29,606 20.71% 1.80 14.59% Total 93,311 23.48% 2.18 17.21% Page 57 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) COMPARISON OF RESULTS IN THE PAD, RESTRUCTURING PAPER AND ICR 12. The comparison of NPVs in the PAD, restructuring paper, and ICR is shown in Table 4. Generally speaking, efficiency is achieved better than the estimation at project appraisal. The main reason is that the influence of project activities is larger than predicted in the PAD as the project monitoring indicators have captured.7 The NPV in Wuhu is significantly different in the PAD, Restructuring Paper, and ICR. The large difference is mainly due to four reasons. First, the estimation in the PAD was for the originally proposed activities, while the estimation in the Restructuring Paper and ICR were for newly proposed activities. Second, estimation result in the Restructuring Paper gives the NPV at 2015, while the estimation result in the ICR gives the NPV at 2011 to be consistent with the NPV for activities in other cities. Third, analysis in the Restructuring Paper estimated a benefit of US$ 92.9 million investment, while analysis in the ICR estimated a benefit of US$ 71.5 million investment.8 Fourth, analysis in the Restructuring Paper assumed that the operation period of the sub-project in Wuhu is from 2015 to 2034; while the period in ICR is assumed to be from 2018 to 2037. Correcting for the influence of all four reasons mentioned above, the estimated NPV of project activities in Wuhu in the Restructuring Paper is equivalent to US$ 41 million in 2011, which is US$ 5 million lower than the estimation result in the ICR. Table 4 Comparison of NPV in the PAD, Restructuring Paper, and ICR NPV PAD Restructuring ICR (Million US$) (Apr. 2010) (Jun. 2015) (Dec. 2018) Anqing 20 25 Huaibei 26 28 Lu'an 22 42 Wuhu 135 117 47 4.1 IC 2 4.2 PT 45 Total 203 141 7 Note here that the NPV in Lu’an is significantly higher than the estimated result in the PAD. The reason is as follows: In calculating the benefit of avoiding exposure to carbon emission, the project scenario of passengers who choose public transportation is based on the project monitoring indicators, while the non-project scenario is predicted based on the before- project mode and incorporating the growth of population and the development of the economy. Anhui Statistical Yearbook captured that the population in Lu’an Municipality dropped significantly during the project construction period (especially from the year 2014 to year 2015). Considering the decreasing total population and the growing number of passengers who take public transportation in the project scenario show that the project in Anhui has higher influence in attracting population to take public transportation and avoiding the use of private cars. The benefit of saved carbon emission cost, comparing the project and non-project scenario, is consequently higher. 8 Some project activities in Wuhu, such as depot improvement, were not included in the cost-benefit analysis in the ICR since the benefit of the activities was not easy to quantify. The investment included in the cost-benefit analysis is US$ 71.5 million, which accounts for 88.9 percent of the total investment in Wuhu. Page 58 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) ANNEX 5. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS 1. Over the past years, our province and the World Bank team have worked together to promote the implementation of the urban transport project in four medium-sized cities in Anhui Province, and achieved satisfactory results based on mutual trust. The implementation of the project has further improved the urban transportation infrastructure and alleviated urban traffic problems in the project cities. In addition, it significantly improved the level of public transport service and the capacity of the project cities and promoted sustainable development. The Bank's technical expertise and management experience have been actively introduced to the project, and social-economic benefits have also been achieved. 2. Overall, the implementation completion report (ICR) thoroughly describes the implementation process of the urban transport project in the medium-sized cities in Anhui Province and objectively evaluates the project outcomes based on comprehensive performance analysis. We acknowledge the implementation completion report in principle and express our sincere gratitude to the World Bank team for their careful guidance and support for the implementation of the urban transport project for the medium-sized cities in Anhui Province. We are also looking forward to further cooperation with the World Bank by exploring more quality demonstration projects in the field of housing and urban and rural construction. 3. In addition to the direct project implementation outcomes mentioned in the completion report, the Anhui Province Medium City Urban Transport Project has made further achievements as follows. 4. First, the capacity of design units in the project cities has been significantly enhanced and has created favorable conditions for the sustainable development of urban road traffic design. For example, Lu'an Planning, Design and Research Institute has communicated with World Bank experts many times during the implementation of the Lu'an component. The Institute has learned the World Bank's expertise on road safety and on the operation of road networks, and actively applied the achieved knowledge to other local projects. The benefits of the projects have been widely recognized by residents. 5. Second, the World Bank's people-oriented project concept has been promoted and applied. During project implementation, Huaibei City actively introduced the people-oriented design concept to urban construction and vigorously installed barrier-free facilities in the city. The city uses its own funds to set up barrier-free facilities such as ramps, braille blocks on the road, and audible traffic signal for blind pedestrians, parks, plazas, pedestrian bridges, pedestrian underground passages, public toilets, etc., which greatly relieve the daily life of the mobility-impaired. Page 59 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) ANNEX 6. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS (IF ANY) 1. Project Appraisal Document for Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (2010) (Report No.: 45059-CN) 2. Project Information Document, Appraisal Stage (2010) 3. Loan Agreement: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project between the People’s Republic of China and IBRD (2010) and Project Agreement 4. Project Aide-Memoires, restructuring papers, and Implementation Status Reports (2008-2017) 5. Environment and Social Safeguards Documents (Environment Impact Assessment, Environmental Management Plan, Social Assessment, Resettlement Action Plan) 6. Project Close Cost-Benefit Analysis Data Files 7. Borrower’s Implementation Completion Report: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (2018) 8. The 13th Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development of the People’s Republic of China 9. China Systematic Country Diagnostic (2017) -- World Bank Group Report No. 113092-CN 10. China Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) for 2006-2010 (Report No. 35435-CN) and for 2013- 2016 (Report No. 67566-CN) 11. Mobile Metropolises: Urban Transport Matters (2017). An IEG Evaluation of the World Bank Group’s Support for Urban Transport 12. China National Bureau of Statistics, China Statistical Yearbook (2017) Page 60 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) ANNEX 7. MAPS Page 61 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) Page 62 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) Page 63 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) Page 64 of 65 The World Bank China: Anhui Medium Cities Urban Transport Project (P111421) Page 65 of 65