INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND CHAD Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis – 2018 Update Prepared jointly by the staffs of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Approved by Paloma Anos-Casero (IDA) and David Owen and Yan Sun (IMF) Following the restructuring of the debt to Glencore and the progress made in clearing external arrears, debt vulnerabilities declined significantly, and the external risk rating has been upgraded to high. The Debt Sustainability Analysis1 (DSA) shows that all debt burden indicators, except the debt-service-to-revenue ratio which has minor and temporary breaches, are below their respective thresholds in the baseline from 2018 onwards. The debt-service-to-revenue ratio, falls below the threshold in 2019 and remains so throughout the projection period, except for minor breaches in 2020 and 2021. Overall, total public debt vulnerabilities are elevated although the present value (PV) of the public debt-to-GDP ratio remains on a downward trajectory. The fixed primary balance scenario, which keeps the primary deficit-to-GDP ratio unchanged from 2017, shows the debt ratio declining at a slower pace throughout the forecast period, further highlighting the need to adhere to the prudent fiscal policy framework underpinning the IMF-supported program. Adoption and implementation of an appropriate debt management strategy, while making progress in economic diversification would further reduce vulnerabilities. 1 Chad’s three-year average score of the Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) for 2015 –17 is estimated at 2.60. This corresponds to a weak policy performance under the DSA framework. BACKGROUND AND RECENT DEVELOPMENTS 1. Chad’s external public debt burden increased considerably from 2008, mainly on account of external commercial borrowings related to oil. At March 2018, outstanding public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external debt stood at nearly US$2.86 billion (26 percent of GDP) compared to US$1.6 billion (18 percent of GDP) at end-2008 (Text Table 1). Commercial borrowings (oil sale advances) from Glencore in 2013 to cover revenue shortfalls and in 2014 to purchase a share in the Doba oil Consortium were the main contributors. Falling oil prices over 2014-16 also contributed to the rising debt service burden by reducing revenues available to repay oil sales advances. Text Table 1. Chad: External Debt Stock 2014-End-March 2018 /1 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 end-March Total (Millions of US$) 3.8 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.9 (Billions of CFA francs) 2010 1617 1622 1572 1540 (Percent of GDP) 29 25 27 27 26 Billions of CFA francs Multilateral 735 375 390 385 405 IMF 11 38 77 96 122 World Bank/IDA 397 113 110 101 99 African Development Fund/Bank 181 69 56 56 55 Others 146 155 147 133 129 Bilateral 334 366 370 419 396 Paris Club official debt 11 2 … 25 24 Non-Paris Club official debt 323 364 370 394 372 of which: China, People's Republic 129 144 156 132 132 Libya 140 158 164 150 127 India 21 27 30 27 27 Commercial 2/ 941 875 862 768 740 Share of Total (percent) Multilateral 37 23 24 24 26 Bilateral 17 23 23 27 26 Commercial 2/ 47 54 53 49 48 Sources: Chadian authorities, selected creditors, and World Bank and IMF staff estimates. 1 Includes only debt denominated in foreign currency. 2 Glencore loan accounts for about 98 percent of commercial debt stock in 2017. 2. Debt relief, following the achievement of HIPC completion point, along with some debt reprofiling helped to ease the rising debt burden. Chad benefited from US$756 million in debt relief after achieving the HIPC completion point in April 2015. This amount includes MDRI relief from the International Development Association and the African Development Bank, and forgiveness from the Paris Club, while non-Paris Club members agreed to reschedule their remaining amounts on IDA comparable terms. In late 2015, the authorities also signed a rescheduling agreement with Glencore to consolidate the oil sale advances and extend their maturities. However, while the rescheduling agreement provided some flow relief, it proved to 2 be insufficient, and led to an increase in the present value of the debt. In February 2018, the authorities reached an agreement in principle with Glencore for a deeper restructuring which helped to reestablish debt sustainability. In April 2017, the authorities rescheduled arrears (accrued in 2016) and upcoming maturities with China. 3. The composition of external public debt has changed significantly over the past decade. The share of external debt from multilaterals has fallen sharply from about 86.5 percent in 2008 to 24.1 percent in 2017, while the share of commercial debt, which was virtually non- existent in 2008, has risen to almost 50 percent, mostly to Glencore. Bilateral debt doubled over the decade but, as a share of total debt, it is still significantly less than commercial debt (Text Table 1). 4. External payment arrears accumulated in 2016 and in 2017. As a result of liquidity challenges in 2016 and the Text Table 2. Chad: Estimated External Arrears first half of 2017, the (Millions of US dollars) government accrued 2018 2017 external arrears vis-à-vis a (end-April) number of multilateral, Multilateral 6.7 0.2 bilateral, and one Islamic Development Bank 6.5 0.0 commercial creditor (a European Investment Bank 0.2 0.2 bank from Taiwan International Fund for Agriculture Development province of China). At Bilateral 92.0 51.7 end-2017 about US$102 Libya 40.3 0.0 million (1 percent of India 10.2 10.2 1 GDP) remained Congo 37.9 37.9 outstanding, mainly to Equatorial Guinea 3.5 3.5 bilateral creditors (Text Commercial 3.2 3.2 Table 2). The authorities Mega International Commercial Bank 2 3.2 3.2 have since reduced this Total 101.9 55.1 stock to US$55 million by 1 In CFAF paying the amount owed 2 Commercial bank from Taiwan Province of China. to the Islamic Development Bank and through a rescheduling agreement with Libya. The authorities are making an effort to address remaining arrears. In early 2018, temporary arrears accumulated, but a portion was repaid after relatively short delays. 5. Domestic public debt, which includes external debt denominated in domestic currency, has increased significantly in recent years. There has been a greater reliance on non-central bank financing, in particular issuance of government securities. While debt to the regional central bank (BEAC) remains high, its share in total debt has declined. In addition, in September 2017, all debt to the BEAC (for an amount of CFAF 479 billion) was consolidated and rescheduled into long-term securities with grace period of 4 years and maturity of 14 years (Text Table 3). In April 2018, domestic public debt rose by about 1 percent of GDP (CFAF 55 3 billion) as the government cleared the arrears of the cotton public enterprise to commercial banks. This will likely be more than fully offset by the ongoing efforts to reduce existing debt to banks. Glencore Debt Restructuring 6. The authorities have signed the final debt restructuring agreement with Glencore in June 2018 which will enter into effect as soon as all remaining standard procedural requirements in the agreement are satisfied shortly. The restructuring reestablishes debt sustainability and alleviates budgetary pressures. The agreement includes a significantly longer maturity, lower interest rate and fees, and contingency mechanisms to adjust debt service depending on oil revenues – which help maintain debt sustainability under different price and production scenarios (see below for further discussion). Text Table 3. Chad: Domestic Debt at Year-End, 2014-2017 2014 2015 2016 2017p Total (Billions of CFA francs) 708.9 1185.0 1482.2 1445.6 (Percent of GDP) 10.3 18.3 24.8 25.2 Share of Total (in percent) Central Bank financing 31.4 38.4 33.3 33.2 Statutory advances 1 26.5 23.6 18.9 … Exceptional advance 1 11.8 11.5 … Consolidated debt 4.9 2.9 3.0 … Commercial banks' loans 19.4 7.3 3.3 3.6 2011 Bond2 7.6 2.3 0.0 0.0 2013 Bond2 10.2 4.6 3.7 1.2 Treasury Bonds3 11.8 21.2 21.8 BDEAC 1.7 1.7 3.2 3.4 Republic of Congo 4.9 3.0 2.4 2.4 Equatorial Guinea 2.1 1.3 1.0 1.0 Cameroon 2.0 2.1 Domestic arrears4 7.3 16.9 12.8 13.5 Others5 12.4 7.4 5.9 6.1 Memo items: Treasury Bills 3.9 7.1 11.2 11.7 Source: Chadian authorities 1 Existing balances were converted into long-term securities with grace period of 4 years and maturity of 14 years. 2 Issued through banks' syndication 3 Auctionned in regional securities' market. 4 Assumes repayment of 20 billion in recognized arrears since June 2017 bring the total for 2017 to 51 billion. 5 Legal commitments, Standing payment orders, and accounting arrears. 4 UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS 7. The DSA’s baseline scenario reflects policies and financing assumptions underlying the ECF arrangement and the Glencore debt restructuring. It is based on an upwardly revised WEO oil price projection (April 2018), a gradual recovery in oil production, conservative interest rate (LIBOR) projections, and policies to stabilize the fiscal position and support a sustainable recovery in non-oil activity. It also assumes clearance of external arrears in 2018. Oil exports. Chad’s medium- and long-term macroeconomic outlook is characterized by a gradual increase in oil production. In 2017, oil production was significantly lower than projected at the time of the program request due to technical problems faced by the second largest oil producer in Chad. Production is expected to begin to recover in 2018 but delays in implementing new extraction technologies will keep production Text Figure 1. Changes in Oil Projections below the program request DSA 80 80 70 70 projections up to 2020 (but 60 60 slightly higher than at the first 50 50 review), after which production is 40 40 expected to increase gradually in 30 30 line with the use of this 20 20 technology and with the capacity 10 10 of new fields projected to start 0 0 production (Text Figure 1). The 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 price of a barrel of Chadian oil has Program request: Oil Export Vol. (million of bbls) Current DSA Oil Export Vol. (million of bbls) been revised upward in the First Review: Oil Export Vol. (million of bbls) Current DSA Price (US Dollars per Barrel; RHS) medium-term relative to both the Program request: Price (US Dollars per Barrel; RHS) First Review: Price (US Dollars per Barrel; RHS) program request and first review DSAs projections reflecting a significant decline in the discount applied to Chad oil in the past year and higher WEO world oil price projections, leading also to slightly higher GDP growth. Fiscal policy. It is assumed that the authorities remain committed to strengthen the fiscal position, including by maintaining the tight spending control, and improving non-oil revenue mobilization. Arrears. Efforts are underway to clear arrears to official bilateral creditors and the authorities are making good faith efforts to clear arrears to the bank from Taiwan province of China. The baseline scenario also includes a gradual reduction in the stock of verified domestic arrears and a start of modest payment of yet to be audited arrears. Current account. The current account deficit is now smaller in the medium-term than under the first review DSA mainly reflecting higher oil prices. 5 8. Risks to the outlook. The outlook is subject to a number of risks, largely downside in nature, including the potential for additional domestic debt and arrears not identified yet, a rise in non-concessional borrowing, and overruns in the wage bill. In addition, a further deterioration in the liquidity position of banks presents a risk given that it could undermine the rollover of domestic public debt. Developments in the international oil market continue to pose both upside and downside risks to the outlook, although the contingencies integrated into the Glencore debt restructuring agreement dampen the impact of fluctuations in oil prices on the fiscal position. Text-Table 4. DSA Assumptions 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 (Percentage Change) Real Growth Program request 0.6 2.4 3.1 3.9 3.6 3.7 First Review -3.1 3.5 2.8 6.8 4.8 4.6 Current DSA -3.1 3.5 3.6 6.9 4.8 4.7 GDP deflator in US dollar terms Program request -4.1 1.5 2.3 3.2 2.7 2.3 First Review 1.0 12.4 3.6 4.1 3.7 3.6 Current DSA 1.0 8.7 2.1 4.1 3.4 3.6 (Percent of GDP) Budget Balance Program request 3.3 2.7 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.4 First Review 0.6 2.1 0.9 1.7 1.5 2.3 Current DSA 1.5 2.8 1.8 2.9 2.6 3.3 Net FDI Program request 3.2 3.4 3.7 4.0 4.0 3.6 First Review 3.7 4.0 4.4 4.6 4.7 3.5 Current DSA 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.5 4.6 3.5 Non-Interest Current Account Balance Program request -0.8 -1.9 -2.5 -2.7 -3.3 -2.7 First Review -4.2 -3.6 -4.8 -4.2 -4.3 -4.0 Current DSA -4.6 -0.3 -1.9 -2.2 -3.4 -3.8 EXTERNAL DSA 9. The Glencore debt restructuring has led to a significant improvement in the debt dynamics, particularly for the debt service-to-revenue ratio. The impact of the restructuring of the Glencore debt on debt dynamics was assessed in detail at the time of the first review DSA. The restructuring reduces significantly the debt service to revenue ratio which was mainly responsible for the debt difficulties Chad has faced recently. The ratio drops considerably over the next four years compared to the pre-Glencore restructuring (see Text Figure 2). The main 6 changes relative to the first review DSA is that the current DSA shows that (i) the debt service to revenue ratio is above the threshold in 2018 because during the restructuring negotiations the authorities delayed a cargo shipment due to Text Figure 2. Debt service-to-revenue Glencore (that is intended primarily to (in percent) service the debt) in December 2017 to 2018; 45 2017 DSA- Glencore Current DSA -Glencore and (ii) after falling below threshold in 2019 40 2017 DSA - Total Current DSA - Total to 16.5 percent (around half of the pre- 35 Threshold restructuring ratio), it increases slightly over 30 the medium term, marginally breaching the 25 threshold before falling 20 significantly because the adjustment 15 mechanism in the new Glencore agreement 10 requires the authorities to pay down debt 5 faster when oil prices are higher than the 0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 contract baseline price. Under the new oil prices scenario, the cash sweep mechanism is triggered throughout the projection period and until 2026. This includes the payment of additional amortization and additional interest, and results in faster repayment of the debt which leads to a faster decline in the PV of debt (relative to the previous projection). 10. All other external debt burden indicators are significantly below their respective thresholds under the baseline. The PV of public and publicly guaranteed external debt as a share of GDP declines gradually from 25.1 percent at end-2017 to under 10 percent by 2025 (Figure 1; Table 1). The PV of debt-to-revenue ratio is 8.7 percentage points below the 200 percent threshold mark in 2018 and declines over the medium-term. And the PV of debt to exports, and debt service to export measures remain comfortably below threshold over the span of the forecast horizon. 11. All the debt indicators breach the relevant thresholds in the presence of extreme shocks (Figure 1, Table 2). A shock to exports would push the PV of debt-to-exports and the debt service-to-exports ratios well above their thresholds. The shock that generates the largest impact for the PV of debt-to-GDP ratio, the PV of debt-to-revenue ratio, and debt service-to- revenue ratio is a combination shock where both growth and the primary balance fall below their historical average by half a standard deviation. All three debt burden indicators would rise sharply above their respective threshold in 2018 and remain elevated well into the medium-term. This highlights the sensitivity of the debt trajectory to the fiscal and growth assumptions and further confirms the need to adhere to the fiscal adjustment path under the IMF-supported program. 7 PUBLIC DSA 12. Analysis of total public debt suggests a heightened level of vulnerability (Figure 2, Table 3). The PV of total public debt, as a share of GDP, at end-2017 stood at 50.3 percent, which is about 12.1 percentage points above the benchmark level associated with heightened public debt vulnerabilities for weak policy performance. However, this indicator declines continuously over the medium-term, falling below the threshold by 2020 and eventually stabilizing at about 17 percent into the long-term. The fixed primary balance scenario follows a similar trajectory but remains above the baseline, underscoring the need to maintain prudent fiscal policies (Figure 2). CONCLUSION 13. Chad’s external debt is assessed to be at high risk of distress and there are heightened public debt vulnerabilities. The rescheduling of the Glencore debt, along with the projected recovery in the oil sector and prudent fiscal policy, result in debt burden indicators declining significantly over the near and medium terms. The external debt trajectory remains sensitive to a number of shocks including on exports and to fiscal slippages. While progress has been made in clearing external arrears, temporary arrears continued to arise in the first half of 2018 suggesting that some difficulties in managing external debt remain. Chad’s external debt is therefore assessed to be at high risk of debt distress. Additionally, total public debt vulnerabilities remain elevated, which reinforces the need to maintain prudent fiscal policy including on external and domestic borrowing. While progress has been made recently to reduce the stock of external and domestic arrears, much more attention is needed going forward to clear all the remaining arrears. Finally, effective inter-agency coordination to strengthen the capacity to record and monitor public debt is very important to better manage public debt. The authorities broadly agreed with staff’s assessment of debt sustainability in Chad and have expressed their commitment to further reduce debt vulnerabilities going forward. 8 Figure 1. Chad: Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt under Alternative Scenarios, 2017–37 1/ a. Debt Accumulation b.PV of debt-to GDP ratio 6 40 70 5 35 60 4 30 3 50 25 2 20 1 40 15 0 10 30 -1 -2 5 20 -3 0 -4 -5 10 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 0 Rate of Debt Accumulation 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 Grant-equivalent financing (% of GDP) Grant element of new borrowing (% right scale) c.PV of debt-to-exports ratio d.PV of debt-to-revenue ratio 350 600 300 500 250 400 200 300 150 200 100 100 50 0 0 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 e.Debt service-to-exports ratio f.Debt service-to-revenue ratio 30 40 35 25 30 20 25 15 20 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 Baseline Historical scenario Most extreme shock 1/ Threshold Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections. 1/ The most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio on or before 2027. In figure b. it corresponds to a Combination shock; in c. to a Exports shock; in d. to a Combination shock; in e. to a Exports shock and in figure f. to a Combination shock 9 Figure 2. Chad: Indicators of Public Debt under Alternative Scenarios, 2017 –37 1/ Most extreme shock One-time depreciation Baseline Fix Primary Balance Most extreme shock 1/ Historical scenario Public debt benchmark 70 60 PV of Debt-to-GDP Ratio 50 40 30 20 10 0 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 400 PV of Debt-to-Revenue Ratio 2/ 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 45 Debt Service-to-Revenue Ratio 2/ 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections. 1/ The most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio on or before 2027. 2/ Revenues are defined inclusive of grants. 10 Table 1. Chad: External Debt Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2014 –37 1/ (Percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated) 6/ 6/ Actual Historical Standard Projections Average Deviation 2017-2022 2023-2037 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average 2027 2037 Average External debt (nominal) 1/ 29.1 25.0 27.1 27.3 26.2 24.9 22.2 19.7 17.2 9.2 9.2 of which: public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) 29.1 25.0 27.1 27.3 26.2 24.9 22.2 19.7 17.2 9.2 9.2 Change in external debt 8.0 -4.1 2.2 0.2 -1.2 -1.3 -2.7 -2.5 -2.5 -0.5 -0.1 Identified net debt-creating flows 2.2 16.7 8.9 2.9 -1.1 -0.4 -1.7 -1.0 -0.2 -0.2 3.5 Non-interest current account deficit 8.2 12.5 7.2 5.3 6.3 4.6 3.1 4.6 3.6 4.0 3.5 1.9 4.6 2.5 Deficit in balance of goods and services 12.5 16.3 15.0 13.9 10.6 10.5 8.8 8.8 8.0 4.7 8.7 Exports 31.4 26.5 24.4 27.5 33.7 34.1 35.3 34.2 34.5 31.7 17.9 Imports 43.9 42.9 39.4 41.4 44.3 44.5 44.1 43.0 42.5 36.4 26.6 Net current transfers (negative = inflow) -7.9 -7.1 -7.7 -6.1 1.5 -9.6 -9.5 -8.1 -7.6 -6.6 -6.4 -5.1 -4.1 -4.8 of which: official -4.4 -3.0 -2.9 -3.6 -4.3 -3.0 -2.6 -1.9 -1.9 -1.5 -1.6 Other current account flows (negative = net inflow) 3.6 3.2 -0.2 0.2 1.9 2.3 2.3 1.8 2.0 2.3 0.0 Net FDI (negative = inflow) -5.2 -5.1 -2.4 -4.3 1.9 -3.7 -4.3 -5.0 -4.5 -4.6 -3.5 -2.0 -1.0 -1.7 Endogenous debt dynamics 2/ -0.8 9.3 4.2 2.0 0.2 0.0 -0.7 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 Contribution from nominal interest rate 0.7 1.2 2.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.1 Contribution from real GDP growth -1.4 -0.7 1.7 0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -1.5 -1.0 -0.8 -0.4 -0.2 Contribution from price and exchange rate changes -0.2 8.8 0.4 … … … … … … … … Residual (3-4) 3/ 5.7 -20.8 -6.7 -2.7 -0.1 -0.8 -1.0 -1.5 -2.2 -0.3 -3.7 of which: exceptional financing -0.1 -0.8 -1.1 -1.0 -1.8 -1.1 -0.7 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 PV of external debt 4/ ... ... 26.9 26.2 24.3 22.8 20.0 17.6 15.1 7.3 6.9 In percent of exports ... ... 110.4 95.3 72.0 66.8 56.6 51.3 43.8 22.9 38.3 PV of PPG external debt ... ... 26.9 26.2 24.3 22.8 20.0 17.6 15.1 7.3 6.9 In percent of exports ... ... 110.4 95.3 72.0 66.8 56.6 51.3 43.8 22.9 38.3 In percent of government revenues ... ... 279.5 242.6 201.3 188.9 153.9 134.6 112.0 52.4 46.5 Debt service-to-exports ratio (in percent) 15.6 9.5 16.7 8.9 6.9 5.8 6.7 7.0 7.3 3.2 3.5 PPG debt service-to-exports ratio (in percent) 15.6 9.5 16.7 8.9 6.9 5.8 6.7 7.0 7.3 3.2 3.5 PPG debt service-to-revenue ratio (in percent) 29.9 24.0 42.2 22.6 19.3 16.5 18.3 18.3 18.5 7.3 4.3 Total gross financing need (Billions of U.S. dollars) 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 1.5 Non-interest current account deficit that stabilizes debt ratio 0.2 16.6 5.0 4.4 4.2 5.9 6.3 6.5 6.0 2.5 4.8 Key macroeconomic assumptions Real GDP growth (in percent) 6.9 1.8 -6.4 4.1 5.3 -3.1 3.5 3.6 6.9 4.8 4.6 3.4 3.8 2.8 2.9 GDP deflator in US dollar terms (change in percent) 0.8 -23.2 -1.5 -0.1 12.5 1.0 8.7 2.1 4.1 3.4 3.6 3.8 2.9 2.9 2.8 Effective interest rate (percent) 5/ 3.6 3.3 7.6 2.7 2.1 4.1 4.3 3.5 3.7 3.3 3.2 3.7 1.3 1.3 1.5 Growth of exports of G&S (US dollar terms, in percent) 1.3 -33.9 -15.3 -1.7 19.6 10.4 37.8 7.0 15.4 5.0 9.5 14.2 5.3 -0.7 1.4 Growth of imports of G&S (US dollar terms, in percent) 9.8 -23.6 -15.3 1.9 14.1 2.9 20.3 6.3 10.2 5.7 7.1 8.8 4.2 1.4 2.6 Grant element of new public sector borrowing (in percent) ... ... ... ... ... 37.1 37.4 37.3 37.6 37.0 37.1 37.3 37.4 37.6 37.4 Government revenues (excluding grants, in percent of GDP) 16.4 10.5 9.6 10.8 12.0 12.0 13.0 13.0 13.5 13.9 14.7 14.3 Aid flows (in Billions of US dollars) 7/ 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 of which: Grants 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 of which: Concessional loans 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 Grant-equivalent financing (in percent of GDP) 8/ ... ... ... 5.3 5.3 4.1 3.7 3.0 3.0 2.6 2.3 2.6 Grant-equivalent financing (in percent of external financing) 8/ ... ... ... 72.2 77.0 79.8 82.6 82.9 83.3 81.1 80.8 80.9 Memorandum items: Nominal GDP (Billions of US dollars) 14.0 10.9 10.1 9.9 11.1 11.8 13.1 14.2 15.4 21.4 36.1 Nominal dollar GDP growth 7.8 -21.8 -7.8 -2.2 12.6 5.8 11.3 8.4 8.4 7.4 6.8 5.8 5.9 PV of PPG external debt (in Billions of US dollars) 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.3 1.6 2.5 (PVt-PVt-1)/GDPt-1 (in percent) 1.3 -0.5 0.2 -0.6 -0.9 -1.2 -0.3 0.0 0.3 -0.1 Gross workers' remittances (Billions of US dollars) … … … … … … … … … … … PV of PPG external debt (in percent of GDP + remittances) ... ... 26.9 26.2 24.3 22.8 20.0 17.6 15.1 7.3 6.9 PV of PPG external debt (in percent of exports + remittances) ... ... 110.4 95.3 72.0 66.8 56.6 51.3 43.8 22.9 38.3 Debt service of PPG external debt (in percent of exports + remittances) ... ... 16.7 8.9 6.9 5.8 6.7 7.0 7.3 3.2 3.5 Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections. 0 1/ Includes both public and private sector external debt. 2/ Derived as [r - g - ρ(1+g)]/(1+g+ρ+gρ) times previous period debt ratio, with r = nominal interest rate; g = real GDP growth rate, and ρ = growth rate of GDP deflator in U.S. dollar terms. 3/ Includes exceptional financing (i.e., changes in arrears and debt relief), changes in gross foreign assets, and valuation adjustments. Projections also include contribution from price and exchange rate changes. 4/ Assumes that PV of private sector debt is equivalent to its face value. 5/ Current-year interest payments divided by previous period debt stock. 6/ Historical averages and standard deviations are generally derived over the past 10 years, subject to data availability. 7/ Defined as grants, concessional loans, and debt relief. 8/ Grant-equivalent financing includes grants provided directly to the government and through new borrowing (difference between the face value and the PV of new debt). 11 Table 2. Chad: Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt, 2017–37 (Percent) Projections 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2027 2037 PV of debt-to GDP ratio Baseline 25 23 22 19 17 14 7 7 A. Alternative Scenarios A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2017-2037 1/ 25 28 29 30 29 28 24 15 A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2017-2037 2/ 25 23 23 20 18 16 9 11 B. Bound Tests B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2018-2019 25 24 24 21 18 16 8 8 B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2018-2019 3/ 25 32 44 39 36 33 21 9 B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2018-2019 25 28 32 28 24 21 11 10 B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2018-2019 4/ 25 27 29 26 23 21 12 8 B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks 25 41 62 56 52 48 30 12 B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2018 5/ 25 32 30 26 23 20 10 9 PV of debt-to-exports ratio Baseline 91 68 64 54 48 41 23 38 A. Alternative Scenarios A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2017-2037 1/ 91 83 85 84 86 81 75 84 A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2017-2037 2/ 91 69 66 56 52 45 30 60 B. Bound Tests B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2018-2019 91 68 64 54 49 41 23 38 B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2018-2019 3/ 91 167 304 265 252 229 156 120 B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2018-2019 91 68 64 54 49 41 23 38 B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2018-2019 4/ 91 80 86 74 68 60 37 42 B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks 91 159 261 228 218 198 137 98 B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2018 5/ 91 68 64 54 49 41 23 38 PV of debt-to-revenue ratio Baseline 232 191 180 146 127 105 52 46 A. Alternative Scenarios A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2017-2037 1/ 232 232 241 229 225 207 172 102 A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2017-2037 2/ 232 193 187 153 136 115 68 73 B. Bound Tests B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2018-2019 232 199 199 161 140 116 58 51 B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2018-2019 3/ 232 266 361 303 277 245 150 61 B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2018-2019 232 236 264 213 186 154 76 68 B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2018-2019 4/ 232 224 243 200 179 154 86 51 B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks 232 339 517 435 400 355 219 84 B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2018 5/ 232 262 250 202 176 146 72 64 12 Table 2. Chad: Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt, 2017–37 (continued) (Percent) Projections 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2027 2037 Debt service-to-exports ratio Baseline 9 7 6 7 7 7 3 4 A. Alternative Scenarios A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2017-2037 1/ 9 7 6 8 9 10 6 11 A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2017-2037 2/ 9 7 6 7 7 7 3 5 B. Bound Tests B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2018-2019 9 7 6 7 7 7 3 4 B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2018-2019 3/ 9 12 15 18 19 19 19 21 B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2018-2019 9 7 6 7 7 7 3 4 B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2018-2019 4/ 9 7 6 7 7 8 5 5 B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks 9 11 12 15 15 16 17 18 B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2018 5/ 9 7 6 7 7 7 3 4 Debt service-to-revenue ratio Baseline 23 19 16 18 18 19 7 4 A. Alternative Scenarios A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2017-2037 1/ 23 21 18 22 23 24 14 14 A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2017-2037 2/ 23 19 16 18 19 19 7 6 B. Bound Tests B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2018-2019 23 20 18 20 20 20 8 5 B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2018-2019 3/ 23 19 18 21 21 21 18 11 B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2018-2019 23 24 24 27 27 27 11 6 B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2018-2019 4/ 23 19 17 19 19 19 11 7 B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks 23 23 24 28 28 28 27 15 B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2018 5/ 23 27 23 25 25 26 10 6 Memorandum item: Grant element assumed on residual financing (i.e., financing required above baseline) 6/ 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections. 1/ Variables include real GDP growth, growth of GDP deflator (in U.S. dollar terms), non-interest current account in percent of GDP, and non-debt creating flows. 2/ Assumes that interest rate on new borrowing is by 2 percentage points higher than in the baseline. Grace and maturity periods are the same as in the baseline. 3/ Exports values are assumed to remain permanently at the lower level, but the current account as a share of GDP is assumed to return to its baseline level after the shock (implicitly assuming an offsetting adjustment in import levels). 4/ Includes official and private transfers and FDI. 5/ Depreciation is defined as percentage decline in dollar/local currency rate, such that it never exceeds 100 percent. 6/ Applies to all stress scenarios except for A2 (less favorable financing) in which the terms on all new financing are as specified in footnote 2. 13 Table 3. Chad: Public Sector Debt Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2014-2037 (Percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated) Actual Estimate Projections 5/ Standard 5/ 2017-22 2023-37 Average 2014 2015 2016 Deviation 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average 2027 2037 Average Public sector debt 1/ 39.3 43.3 51.7 52.5 49.2 45.4 40.8 36.9 33.1 43.0 21.4 19.9 19.8 of which: foreign-currency denominated 29.1 25.0 27.1 27.3 26.2 24.9 22.2 19.7 17.2 9.2 9.2 Change in public sector debt 8.8 3.9 8.5 0.8 -3.3 -3.8 -4.6 -3.9 -3.8 -1.1 -0.2 Identified debt-creating flows 0.1 5.4 3.9 -2.6 -3.9 -4.0 -6.1 -4.9 -5.5 -4.1 -0.8 Primary deficit 6/ 2.6 3.0 -0.4 0.9 3.9 -1.2 -2.8 -1.8 -2.9 -2.6 -3.4 -2.4 -2.8 0.0 -1.9 Revenue and grants 18.4 14.0 12.6 14.9 16.4 15.5 16.2 15.7 16.2 16.1 16.7 of which: grants 2.0 3.4 2.9 4.1 4.4 3.5 3.2 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.0 Primary (noninterest) expenditure 21.0 17.0 12.2 13.7 13.6 13.8 13.3 13.1 12.8 13.3 16.7 Automatic debt dynamics 1.9 3.0 4.8 0.4 -0.5 -1.8 -2.9 -2.0 -1.8 -1.1 -0.7 Contribution from interest rate/growth differential -1.0 -2.6 5.0 4.2 0.9 -1.7 -2.6 -1.8 -1.6 -1.1 -0.7 of which: contribution from average real interest rate 1.0 -1.9 2.0 2.5 2.7 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 of which: contribution from real GDP growth -2.0 -0.7 3.0 1.7 -1.8 -1.7 -2.9 -1.9 -1.6 -0.8 -0.5 Contribution from real exchange rate depreciation 2.9 5.6 -0.3 -3.8 -1.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 ... ... Other identified debt-creating flows -4.4 -0.7 -0.5 -1.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 Privatization receipts (negative) -4.0 -0.4 0.0 -1.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Recognition of implicit or contingent liabilities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Debt relief (HIPC and other) -0.4 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 Other (specify, e.g. bank recapitalization) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Residual, including asset changes 8.7 -1.4 4.6 3.4 0.6 0.2 1.5 1.0 1.7 3.0 0.7 Other Sustainability Indicators PV of public sector debt ... ... 51.5 51.4 47.3 43.3 38.6 34.8 31.0 19.4 17.6 of which: foreign-currency denominated ... ... 26.9 26.2 24.3 22.8 20.0 17.6 15.1 7.3 6.9 of which: external ... ... 26.9 26.2 24.3 22.8 20.0 17.6 15.1 7.3 6.9 PV of contingent liabilities (not included in public sector debt) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... Gross financing need 2/ 8.4 8.2 6.2 5.8 5.9 5.2 5.3 4.0 3.1 2.0 4.5 PV of public sector debt-to-revenue and grants ratio (in percent) … … 410.2 344.4 288.3 279.0 238.3 221.8 192.0 120.4 105.0 PV of public sector debt-to-revenue ratio (in percent) … … 535.1 475.3 392.6 359.1 297.4 266.7 229.5 140.0 119.2 of which: external 3/ … … 279.5 242.6 201.3 188.9 153.9 134.6 112.0 52.4 46.5 Debt service-to-revenue and grants ratio (in percent) 4/ 31.6 33.6 41.7 27.3 36.2 23.5 33.5 25.3 24.2 14.7 12.5 Debt service-to-revenue ratio (in percent) 4/ 35.3 44.6 54.4 37.6 49.3 30.2 41.8 30.4 29.0 17.1 14.2 Primary deficit that stabilizes the debt-to-GDP ratio -6.2 -0.9 -8.9 -2.0 0.4 2.1 1.7 1.3 0.4 -1.7 0.2 Key macroeconomic and fiscal assumptions Real GDP growth (in percent) 6.9 1.8 -6.4 4.1 5.3 -3.1 3.5 3.6 6.9 4.8 4.6 3.4 3.8 2.8 2.9 Average nominal interest rate on forex debt (in percent) 3.6 3.3 7.6 2.7 2.1 4.1 4.3 3.5 3.7 3.3 3.2 3.7 1.3 1.3 1.5 Average real interest rate on domestic debt (in percent) 5.1 -1.5 -1.3 1.7 3.4 2.2 1.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.9 0.2 -0.7 -0.4 -0.5 Real exchange rate depreciation (in percent, + indicates depreciation) 14.3 20.8 -0.9 3.7 13.9 -12.7 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent) -2.0 3.3 3.1 1.2 3.6 -0.7 0.3 2.2 2.6 2.7 2.9 1.7 2.8 3.0 2.9 Growth of real primary spending (deflated by GDP deflator, in percent) 4.8 -26.6 -35.9 -5.7 13.7 8.9 4.5 5.2 4.1 3.2 2.0 4.7 5.4 3.5 4.8 Grant element of new external borrowing (in percent) ... ... ... … … 37.1 37.4 37.3 37.6 37.0 37.1 37.3 37.4 37.6 ... Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections. 1/ The coverage of public sector debt comprises the obligations of the central government, including commercial debt. The definition of debt corresponds to gross debt. 2/ Gross financing need is defined as the primary deficit plus debt service plus the stock of short-term debt at the end of the last period. 3/ Revenues excluding grants. 4/ Debt service is defined as the sum of interest and amortization of medium and long-term debt. 5/ Historical averages and standard deviations are generally derived over the past 10 years, subject to data availability. 6/ The primary deficit grosses up oil revenue and debt service on the oil sales advances 14 Table 4. Chad – Current Policies: Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public Debt, 2017–37 Projections 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2027 2037 PV of Debt-to-GDP Ratio Baseline 51 47 43 39 35 31 19 18 A. Alternative scenarios A1. Real GDP growth and primary balance are at historical averages 51 49 47 45 44 42 41 40 A2. Primary balance is unchanged from 2017 51 48 45 41 38 35 29 26 A3. Permanently lower GDP growth 1/ 51 48 45 41 38 35 29 48 B. Bound tests B1. Real GDP growth is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2018-2019 51 50 49 45 41 38 30 37 B2. Primary balance is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2018-2019 51 52 52 47 43 39 27 25 B3. Combination of B1-B2 using one half standard deviation shocks 51 52 51 47 43 39 29 30 B4. One-time 30 percent real depreciation in 2018 51 58 54 48 44 39 26 24 B5. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2018 51 54 49 45 41 37 25 24 PV of Debt-to-Revenue Ratio 2/ Baseline 344 288 279 238 222 192 120 105 A. Alternative scenarios A1. Real GDP growth and primary balance are at historical averages 344 299 300 277 276 260 253 245 A2. Primary balance is unchanged from 2017 344 293 286 251 240 217 179 152 A3. Permanently lower GDP growth 1/ 344 290 285 249 238 213 173 278 B. Bound tests B1. Real GDP growth is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2018-2019 344 299 307 269 259 232 182 216 B2. Primary balance is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2018-2019 344 315 333 288 272 241 167 148 B3. Combination of B1-B2 using one half standard deviation shocks 344 312 327 285 271 242 178 180 B4. One-time 30 percent real depreciation in 2018 344 353 344 295 276 242 159 141 B5. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2018 344 325 318 274 259 228 156 141 Debt Service-to-Revenue Ratio 2/ Baseline 27 36 23 33 25 24 15 13 A. Alternative scenarios A1. Real GDP growth and primary balance are at historical averages 27 37 24 35 27 26 19 23 A2. Primary balance is unchanged from 2017 27 37 24 34 26 25 17 18 A3. Permanently lower GDP growth 1/ 27 37 24 35 27 26 17 22 B. Bound tests B1. Real GDP growth is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2018-2019 27 38 26 37 28 27 18 20 B2. Primary balance is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2018-2019 27 37 24 36 27 26 19 17 B3. Combination of B1-B2 using one half standard deviation shocks 27 37 25 36 28 26 19 18 B4. One-time 30 percent real depreciation in 2018 27 40 29 41 33 32 19 18 B5. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2018 27 37 25 35 27 25 18 16 Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections. 1/ Assumes that real GDP growth is at baseline minus one standard deviation divided by the square root of the length of the projection period. 2/ Revenues are defined inclusive of grants. 15