106785 For Official Use Only CLR Review June 30, 2016 Independent Evaluation Group 1. CAS/CPS Data Country: The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan CAS/CPS Year: FY12 CAS/CPS Period: FY12 – FY15 CLR Period: FY12 – FY15 Date of this review: June 30, 2016 2. Ratings CLR Rating IEG Rating Development Outcome: Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory WBG Performance: Good Good 3. Executive Summary i. Jordan is an upper middle-income country with an open economy that is well integrated with its neighbors, making Jordan vulnerable to economic and political volatility in the region. During the previous decade, Jordan experienced high growth rates, which could not be sustained due to lack of resilience of the economy to exogenous shocks. Leading up to the Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) period, the Government faced several challenges: deterioration in fiscal position resulting in lack of fiscal space to protect against external shocks and pursue growth enhancing investments, high unemployment especially among the young and women, falling remittances and foreign direct investment, increase in poverty pockets (areas where at least 25 percent of the population fall below the poverty line), and declining rankings in Doing Business and Global Competitiveness reports. To address these challenges, the Government would have to embark on structural and institutional reforms geared towards inclusive job creation and private sector led growth, while responding to the adverse impact of regional turmoil and the demands for political reform. ii. The Government vision is to leverage the country’s strong human capital base towards a knowledge-based economy. The Government’s reform agenda is articulated in the National Agenda (2006-2015) with the Executive Development Program (2011-2013) and the Government Work Plan (2013-2016) serving as the action plan. The CPS built on the Government agenda by focusing on three complementary and mutually reinforcing focus areas: strengthen fiscal management and increase accountability, strengthen the foundation for sustainable growth with a focus on competitiveness, and enhance inclusion through social protection and local development. Transparency, accountability, and participation were cross-cutting themes. With the spillover of regional turmoil to Jordan, the CPS Progress Report (CPSPR) adjusted the program by incorporating emergency operations to address the adverse effects of the Syrian crisis while maintaining focus on longer term reforms envisioned in the CPS. The CPSPR increased Bank financing support from $450 million to $795 million and revised the focus areas to: strengthening resilience to economic shocks, enhancing competitiveness and shared prosperity, and mitigating vulnerability to reduce poverty. iii. The CPS was able to respond to the adverse effects of the Syrian crisis through emergency operations while pursuing the longer term reforms envisioned at the beginning of the program. Actual CLR Reviewed by: Peer Reviewed by: CLR Review Coordinator Albert Martinez Juan Jose Mark Sundberg Igor Artemiev Fernandez-Ansola Manager, IEGEC Consultants, IEGEC Consultant, IEGEC Lourdes Pagaran CLRR Coordinator, IEGEC For Official Use Only CLR Review 2 Independent Evaluation Group Bank financing (excluding grants and trust funds) during the CPS period was $770 million, of which $500 million was in Development Policy Financing (DPF) and $270 million was in Investment Project Financing (IPF). At the request of the Government, the DPF was increased by $100 million from the original amount planned, though there was no significant change to the program supported by the DPF operations. The IPF supported an emergency project ($150 million) and an MSME project ($70 million), including its Additional Financing ($50 million). The amount of grant and trust fund (TF) financed projects increased from the $8.6 million planned in the CPS to an actual approved amount of $84.1 million at end-FY15, inclusive of a $52.7 million emergency project, a $9.5 million social assistance project, and a $4.7 million labor market project. iv. Focus Area I – Strengthen Resilience to Economic Shocks – focused on strengthening public sector institutions and providing the basis for improved targeting of social assistance. There was progress, as measured by Global Integrity Country Scores, in improving public access to information and strengthening effectiveness of the Audit Bureau to enhance accountability in the use of public resources - reforms in these areas were supported by the Programmatic DPLs accompanied by AAA. However, the reform of the social protection targeting system has stalled due to unsatisfactory implementation of supporting projects. Overall, there was a mismatch between the interventions and the challenges in strengthening economic resilience to exogenous shocks. v. Focus Area II – Enhance Competitiveness and Shared Prosperity – addressed major infrastructure bottlenecks, environmental sustainability, key constraints to MSME growth, lack of legal framework for public-private partnerships (PPP), and the mismatch between available skills and labor demand. IFC played an important role in several areas, including renewable energy, access to finance, and skills development. WBG used a wide range of instruments that resulted in Achieved or Mostly Achieved ratings for four of the seven objectives in this focus area. However, three important targets – in transport, public private partnerships (PPP), and learning environment - were rated Not Achieved or Partially Achieved. vi. Focus Area III – Mitigate Vulnerability to Reduce Poverty – included emergency measures to mitigate the adverse impact of the Syrian crisis on access to safety nets and social services, and on the capacity of local governments to provide public services. In addition, this focus area sought to support longer term reforms to improve access to social assistance and to expand coverage to the transient poor - those whose annual consumption exceeded the poverty level but experienced episodes of poverty during the year. Achievement of outcomes in this focus area was mixed. While the emergency projects have performed well, projects dealing with longer term reforms suffered from poor design, lack of government commitment, and unsatisfactory implementation. vii. This review rates WBG performance as good. The CPS was appropriately designed with flexibility built into the program in the context of regional and political risks. The CPSPR made significant revisions to the original results framework to give the program more focus and take into account Bank response to the effects of the refugee crisis. The introduction of the “two-track” approach in the CPSPR helped address urgent issues while maintaining the trajectory of longer-term reforms. The CPS identified an appropriate mix of instruments to support the program, with programmatic DPF operations setting the policy and institutional framework for the reforms, IPF projects supporting implementation of various initiatives, and AAA providing both analytical underpinning and technical assistance. IFC investments and advisory services complemented Bank activities. However, Bank support to reforms in social protection and social assistance systems seems fragmented, with lack of a clearly articulated strategy or approach. In addition, the revised results framework included many indicators that were project results rather than program outcomes. The CPSPR revisions of the original CPS outcome indicators tended to lower the bar for program performance. The objectives and interventions under Focus Area I did not match the challenges in strengthening resilience to economic shocks. viii. At implementation, the Bank delivered five operations with lending volumes close to the enhanced CPSPR target. There were joint Bank-Government actions to improve ownership, selectivity, For Official Use Only CLR Review 3 Independent Evaluation Group and implementation performance of projects. There is also evidence of coordination with other development partners, notably in the Programmatic DPF operations, the emergency projects, and several of the TA projects. Nonetheless, there were several projects that were not performing well, in particular the National Unified Registry & Outreach Program for Targeting Social Assistance Project whose unsatisfactory performance was a critical constraint to the expansion of coverage and targeting of social assistance. While the share of projects at risk to total number of projects in the portfolio declined in FY14, it doubled in FY15 indicating the need for more sustained efforts at improving implementation. Based on IEG ratings for projects that closed during the CPS period, the performance of the Jordan portfolio was worse than that of the MNA Region and Bank-wide. ix. This review generally agrees with the CLR lessons and findings on: responding to immediate priorities while making progress in addressing longstanding issues; need for careful assessment of implementation capacity and institutional incentives to inform priorities for Bank support; replicating success in pilot initiatives or innovative approaches; importance of M&E in a rapidly changing environment; importance of sustained WBG support to promote private sector led economy; rapid adjustments to WBG activities informed by continuous monitoring of relevance and performance; and the strategic foundation provided by the MNA Strategy. x. This review provides the following additional lessons. First, promoting inclusion requires complementing growth-enhancing programs with targeted interventions. In the case of Jordan, economic growth has not resulted in lower unemployment and sufficient job creation. In addition, unemployment rates for women and youth are higher than national average. The challenge for the next CPS is balancing the growth-oriented and inclusion-targeted interventions towards increasing the program’s impact on long-standing issues such as constraints to women and youth employment. Second, projects need to be kept flexible in the context of a rapidly changing environment, and problem projects require intensive implementation support and timely adjustment. These are the lessons from the Social Protection Enhancement Project, which was rated Highly Unsatisfactory for outcomes. Third, it is important to manage the change process, including allowing for enough time and buy-in from stakeholders. This is the lesson from the Employer Driven Skills Development Project, which supported a paradigm shift from supply-driven to demand-driven technical and vocational education training (TVET) programs, but found government commitment to be lacking leading to serious delays and cancellation of certain activities. Finally, selectivity in project selection is critical to program success, especially in the context of weaknesses in implementation capacity. Given the number of possible areas of intervention by the WBG, selectivity would require a clear articulation of a set of criteria for prioritization. 4. Strategic Focus Relevance of the WBG Strategy: 1. Congruence with Country Context and Country Program . During the last decade, Jordan’s annual economic growth rate averaged six percent, supported by a favorable external environment. A series of external shocks exposed structural vulnerabilities that adversely affected the drivers of growth, including foreign direct investment, tourism receipts, and exports. The primary fiscal deficit (excluding grants) increased from 8.6 percent of GDP in 2009 to 9.6 percent in 2011 as commodity subsidies and other social spending increased. While Jordan had made substantial progress in poverty reduction, with population under the poverty line declining from 21 percent of the total population in 1997 to 14 percent in 2010, there was an increase in poverty pockets (areas where 25 percent or more of the population fall below the poverty line) from 22 in 2006 to 32 in 2010. In addition, the poverty count did not include the transient poor – quarterly poverty estimates (which would also cover the transient poor) in 2010 ranged from 15 to 20 percent. Growth has not led to significant private sector job creation for nationals, with employment elasticity of growth dropping from 1.53 during 1990-99 to 0.53 during 2000-2009. At 12.5 percent in 2012, the unemployment rate was high, and for women and youth, the rate was double the national average. For Official Use Only CLR Review 4 Independent Evaluation Group 2. The CPS addressed several of the main challenges faced by Jordan in achieving sustainable and inclusive growth and job creation: creating fiscal space to protect against external shocks, addressing the needs of the most vulnerable population, correcting the mismatch between labor supply and demand especially in the youth and women segments, increasing private sector investment, and addressing the inefficiencies in the structure of economic activity. In addition, the CPS took into account political and social volatility in the country and region by supporting improvements in transparency and accountability. The CPS was consistent with the Government’s program as articulated in the National Agenda (2006-2015), the Executive Development Program (2011-2013), and the Government Work Plan (2013-2016). With the change in the regional context during the implementation of the CPS, WBG adjusted the strategy in the CPSPR towards a “twin-track” approach that sought to strike a balance between addressing the immediate and urgent consequences of the Syrian conflict and maintaining progress in essential structural and institutional reforms. While the CPSPR supported the Government’s efforts to mobilize support for its National Resilience Plan in response to the Syrian crisis, the CPSPR emphasized the urgency of implementing reforms and increasing transparency, accountability, and participation across the WBG program. 3. Relevance of Design. The CPS was designed as a flexible instrument with three complementary and mutually reinforcing pillars addressing the key challenges to achieving sustainable and inclusive growth. The design flexibility enabled adjustments to the WBG program to incorporate support to Government efforts to mitigate the adverse impact of the Syrian crisis. The fiscal management and governance components of the CPS focused on: improvements in the targeting of social assistance, which raises the efficiency of public expenditures; transparency and accountability, which contributes to the mitigation of the political risks to reform; and increasing private participation in areas that used to be funded by the public sector to help create fiscal space. The competitiveness focus area addressed the main constraints to private investment and job creation, with activities selected based on the complementarity of strengths of WBG institutions. In addition, there were targeted interventions to promote economic inclusion, especially among youth and women. The focus area on mitigating vulnerability to reduce poverty provided quick response to the adverse impact of the Syrian crisis to preserve gains made in human development indicators, while supporting longer term reforms in social assistance and protection systems, including expanding coverage to the transient poor. The CPS appropriately utilized a wide range of instruments, with Bank ESW and DPF operations providing the policy and institutional foundation, and Bank IPF and TA projects, IFC investments and advisory services, and MIGA guarantees supporting specific activities. IFC contributed to CPS objectives with investments supporting private sector activities in the energy, financial, and education sectors, accompanied by advisory services including those aimed at strengthening the financial infrastructure for MSME lending and developing skills for the ICT sector. There were two weaknesses in the design. First, the program under Focus Area I did not adequately address the main challenges to strengthening economic resilience to shocks. Second, the program supporting longer term reforms in the areas of social protection and social assistance lacked the same coherence as the support to competitiveness. Selectivity 4. The CPS was generally selective, with the focus areas and interventions chosen and designed based on analytical work, key country challenges, strengths of Bank and IFC, and WBG corporate goals. Focus Area I emphasized strengthening institutional arrangements towards greater transparency and accountability as well as improved targeting of social assistance. These activities complemented fiscal reforms supported by an IMF Stand-By Arrangement and were part of wider Bank support to social protection reforms covered in Focus Area III. As noted above, the original title of this focus area – strengthen fiscal management and increase accountability – seemed more appropriate for the program objectives supporting it. Focus Area II addressed key constraints to private investment and job creation, and emphasized activities that highlighted synergy of Bank and IFC work. Interventions in the infrastructure and energy sectors were designed to not only promote private sector led growth but also contribute to the creation of fiscal space. Focus Area III combined For Official Use Only CLR Review 5 Independent Evaluation Group emergency measures to sustain critical services under pressure from the inflow of Syrian refugees with longer term institutional reforms to improve access to social safety nets and social services, including coverage of the transient poor. The longer term reforms would contribute to the sustainability of emergency measures. Several objectives in the initial program covering Focus Areas II and III were dropped and consolidated to reflect the results supported by Bank interventions. Alignment 5. The CPS program design and implementation supported WBG’s corporate goals of reducing poverty and increasing shared prosperity in a sustained manner. One of the three focus areas had an explicit focus on the corporate goal of poverty reduction by mitigating vulnerabilities exacerbated by the Syrian crisis and by expanding coverage of social assistance to the transient poor. The focus area on growth and competitiveness incorporated program elements that would contribute to the corporate goal of shared prosperity. The majority of the ESW products completed during the CPS period focused on themes that were relevant to achievement of corporate goals. While most of IFC interventions indirectly supported the corporate goals, activities included advisory work that targeted women and youth. 5. Development Outcome Overview of Achievement by Objective: Focus Area I: Strengthen Resilience to Economic Shocks 6. The objectives and interventions in this focus area addressed strengthening of public sector governance and improvements in the targeting of social protection. The program content was not aligned with the key areas that needed to be addressed in strengthening resilience to economic shocks and was more relevant to the original title of Focus Area I - Strengthen Fiscal Management and Increase Accountability. In identifying the Bank contribution to fiscal management reforms, the CPS took into account the 2012 IMF Stand-By Arrangement which supported the Government’s program to stabilize the economy and address economic vulnerabilities, including short and medium term fiscal adjustment underpinned by tax and expenditure reforms. Consequently, Bank objectives in this area focused on strengthening institutions and improving efficiency of the social protection system, with the latter linked to Bank activities in Focus Area III. 7. Objective #1. Improved Basis for Targeting of Subsidies. As part of its fiscal consolidation measures in 2012, the Government sought to reform its social protection targeting system to better reach the neediest and reduce the fiscal burden of subsidies. The FY14 National Unified Registry and Outreach Program for Targeting Social Assistance Project, which followed the FY08 Social Protection Enhancement Project, was the main instrument of Bank support. The outcome indicator was the establishment of a national unified registry (NUR) that could be used for targeting social assistance. Events on the ground undermined the original project design and the NUR is not yet in place, with project restructuring under way. The latest ISR for the National Unified Registry and Outreach Program for Targeting Social Assistance Project rated progress towards achievement of PDO as Moderately Satisfactory (upgraded from a previous Moderately Unsatisfactory rating) and overall implementation progress as Moderately Unsatisfactory. Objective #1 is rated Not Achieved. 8. Objective #2. Strengthened Effectiveness of Audit Bureau. To enhance the transparency and accountability in the use of public resources, the Government undertook measures to improve the independence, internal controls, and performance of the Audit Bureau. The FY12 and FY14 Programmatic DPLs contributed to this objective. The outcome indicator was the improvement in the Global Integrity Country Score for effectiveness of supreme audit institution from 63 in 2009 to 75 in 2015. The latest ISR for the Second Programmatic DPL reported the GIC Score at 71.9 as of March 2015. Objective #2 is rated Mostly Achieved. For Official Use Only CLR Review 6 Independent Evaluation Group 9. Objective #3. Increased Public Access to Information. The Government addressed issues of limited transparency and accountability of policies by amending the Access to Information Law and improving the administrative framework for its implementation. The FY12 and FY14 Programmatic DPLs and several AAA supported this objective. The outcome indicator was the improvement in the Global Integrity Country Score for public access to government information from 64.6 in 2011 to 75 in 2015. The latest ISR for the Second Programmatic DPL reported the GIC Score at 75 as of March 2015. Objective #3 is rated Achieved. 10. The Programmatic DPLs contributed to progress in enhancing transparency and accountability. However, the unsatisfactory implementation of the National Unified Registry and Outreach Program for Targeting Social Assistance Project has delayed the establishment of the NUR. In view of the mixed performance in meeting the program objectives, this review rates Focus Area I as Moderately Satisfactory. Focus Area II: Seek Opportunities to Enhance Competitiveness and Shared Prosperity 11. Objectives and interventions in this focus area supported private sector led growth and competitiveness, environmental sustainability, and economic inclusion. Key constraints to private investment and competitiveness were addressed – infrastructure bottlenecks, lack of access to finance, and the mismatch between available skills and private sector demand. Three of the objectives contributed to environmental sustainability. The objectives on access to finance and learning environment included targeted support towards promoting inclusion. The objectives on renewable energy and PPP, in addition to improving infrastructure, also contributed to the creation of fiscal space by shifting to the private sector some investments that used to be carried out by the public sector. 12. Objective #4. Improved Transport. To take advantage of Jordan’s location at the center of trade routes and to enhance conditions for private sector led growth, the Government is addressing key transport infrastructure bottlenecks. The FY08 Additional Financing for the Amman Development Corridor Project and an IFC investment in the expansion of the main airport terminal were the main instruments supporting this objective. An IFC advisory service tried to introduce PPP in building a light rail train connection between Amman and Zarqa, but failed to attract private financing and government subsidy. The outcome indicator was the reduction in travel time in the Greater Amman Municipality to Zarqa route, from 60 minutes in 2010 to 40 minutes in 2014. The ICRR for the Amman Development Corridor Project reported travel time of 48 minutes. IEG’s review of the ICR rated the project’s outcome as Unsatisfactory overall with modest efficacy due to major shortcomings in achieving the objectives on logistics services and access to land for productive investment. Given that the target was not met and taking into account the Unsatisfactory rating of the project, Objective #4 is rated Not Achieved. 13. Objective #5. Improved Electricity Generation With a Focus on Renewable Energy. Structural reforms in the power sector focused on reducing dependence on imported fuel by increasing the share of renewable energy. WBG supported this objective with Global Environment Facility (GEF) financed projects, IFC investments, and Bank TA. IFC has built up a massive and innovative program in the power sector covering generation, transmission and distribution sub-sectors. In FY15, IFC pioneered a program to finance seven solar photovoltaic (PV) projects of 102 MW located across the country. IFC also invested in FY15 in a 117 MW wind farm project, which is the largest in the region. The outcome indicator was the increase in renewable power generation capacity, from 1.4 MW in 2011 to 70 MW in 2015. This target was met with the commissioning of the IFC supported wind farm. In addition, the latest ISR for the GEF financed FY08 Promotion of a Wind Market Project reported 95 MW of generation capacity of renewable energy (other than hydropower) constructed as of May 2015. Objective #5 is rated Achieved. 14. Objective #6. Improved Solid Waste Services. The solid waste sector is among the key priorities of the Government’s National Agenda for Sustainable Development, which established targets for percentage of municipal waste disposed of in an environmentally sound manner. The FY09 Amman For Official Use Only CLR Review 7 Independent Evaluation Group Solid Waste Management and Carbon Finance Project was the main Bank instrument supporting this objective. The outcome indicator was the increase in disposal capacity at the Al Ghabawi landfill from six million tons in 2010 to eight million tons in 2014. The ICRR for the project reported that the outcome target was met, though the ICRR rated the project Unsatisfactory due to non-achievement of several outcomes such as CO2 reduction, electricity generation from the recycling system, and improved financial performance. This review notes that the original results framework included a target for CO2 reduction, which was not met. Nonetheless, in view of the meeting of the current CPS outcome target, Objective #6 is rated Achieved. 15. Objective #7. Improved Environmental Sustainability. Enhancing environmental management is viewed by the Government as contributing to both the well-being of the population and competitiveness in increasingly environmentally conscious markets. The Bank supported this objective through seven projects financed from various Trust Funds, including the Global Environment Facility and the Montreal Fund for the Implementation of the Montreal Protocol. There were two outcome indicators: (i) increase in protected areas managed sustainably, from 15,500 hectares in 2011 to 23,000 hectares in 2014; (ii) reduction in hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) from 83 tons per annum to 74.4 tons per annum (the project target for December 2018). Because indicator (i) was not tracked by the FY13 Badia Ecosystem and Livelihoods project, the CLR used an alternative indicator measured by the project – new areas outside protected areas managed as biodiversity-friendly - with a target of 3,000 hectares. The latest ISR for the project reported that the alternative target was met. With respect to indicator (ii), as of November 2015, actual reduction in HCFC was 59.7 tons per annum based on the latest ISR for the FY13 Jordan Ozone Depleting Substances HCFC Phase-Out Project, which rated the progress towards achievement of the global environmental objective as Satisfactory. Based on the achievement of the alternative indicator target and the satisfactory rating for the Jordan Ozone Depleting Substance HCFC Phase-Out Project, Objective #7 is rated Achieved. 16. Objective #8. Improved Access to Finance for MSMEs. About 87 percent of corporate bank lending has gone to large firms, with lack of access to finance viewed as a key constraint to the ability of MSMEs – a major source of employment – to reach their full growth potential. WBG utilized a wide range of instruments to support this objective. The FY12 and FY14 Programmatic DPLs, the FY13 MSME Development Project for Inclusive Growth and its FY15 Additional Financing, the TF financed FY14 Strengthening the Regulatory and Institutional Framework for MSME Development Project, and AAA were the instruments of Bank support. IFC invested in three microfinance institutions (MFIs) and delivered seven advisory service products covering lending to women entrepreneurs and strengthening institutional foundations of MSME lending, e.g., establishment of the first private credit bureau. Outcome indicators and targets were: (i) 1,000 MSME beneficiaries, of which women-owned businesses represent 35 percent, under the Bank line of credit; and (ii) increase in micro loans outstanding in IFC investee MFIs from 90,829 in 2013 to 108,000 in 2015. Based on the latest ISR for the MSME Development Project for Inclusive Growth, which reported 9,172 beneficiaries as of August 2015, target (i) was met. With respect to target (ii), while the CLR reported a total of 109,979 micro loans outstanding in 2015 in three MFIs with IFC investments, this review could not validate this performance. The Global Competitiveness Report showed Jordan improving its ranking in terms of ease of access to loans from 52 (out of 139) in 2010-2011 to 25 (out of 144) in 2014-2015. However, Doing Business 2015 ranked Jordan 185 (out of 189) in terms of getting credit based on strength of legal rights and depth of credit information – the latter is being addressed by the Programmatic DPLs and IFC advisory services. In addition, domestic credit to the private sector as percent of GDP declined slightly from 73.5 percent in 2011 to 70.2 percent in 2014. Using of indicators that reflect overall system performance – which is supported by a variety of WBG interventions - is more appropriate than the project level indicators. Nonetheless, based on the CPS targets, Objective #8 is rated Mostly Achieved. 17. Objective #9. Suitable Legal Environment to Regulate PPPs. The Government envisioned the use of PPPs as an important vehicle to satisfy infrastructure needs and improve public services in the context of limited fiscal space. The Bank FY12 and FY14 Programmatic DPLs and IFC investments and advisory services were the main instruments of WBG support. The outcome indicator was the For Official Use Only CLR Review 8 Independent Evaluation Group application of the new PPP law to new transactions with the PPP unit identifying a pipeline of five potential projects. The PPP law, by-laws, and implementing regulations are in place and the PPP unit has been established. However, the PPP law has not been applied as envisaged because a pipeline of projects has not yet been identified. Objective #9 is rated Partially Achieved. 18. Objective #10. Improved Learning Environment. Modernizing the education system and enhancing technical and vocational training would help reduce the mismatch between labor market needs and available skills. The main instruments supporting this objective were: the FY09 Second Education Reform for the Knowledge Economy Project; an FY14 IFC investment in Luminus Group, a private organization providing education services tailored to the needs of the labor markets in the Middle East; and IFC advisory work on developing skills for the ICT industry. Outcome indicators were: (i) increase in number of schools implementing improvement plans from 789 in 2008 to 3,000 in 2015; and (ii) increase in number of full time equivalent students in IFC’s various programs from 5,663 in 2013 to 6,491 in 2015. Based on the latest ISR for the Second Education Reform for the Knowledge Economy Project, which reported 3,716 schools implementing improvement plans in February 2016, target (i) was met. While the CLR reported that the IFC investment has provided 7,033 students – of which 1,628 were female - with training in 2014, this review finds that it is too early to determine the development outcome of the investment, which was made in FY14. In addition, the advisory service product was rated Mostly Unsatisfactory. A more results oriented program level indicator, e.g., improved response to labor market and employers’ requirement of labor skills, rather than project level outputs, would have been more appropriate for this objective. Objective #10 is rated Partially Achieved. 19. The WBG used a wide range of instruments that resulted in ratings of Achieved or Mostly Achieved for four of the seven objectives. IFC investments in renewable energy provided positive demonstration to private investors, contributed to the creation of fiscal space, and complemented Bank policy and institutional work by supporting private sector response. However, three important targets were Not Achieved or Partially Achieved. This review rates Focus Area II as Moderately Satisfactory. Focus Area III: Mitigate Vulnerability to Reduce Poverty 20. This focus area covered short term responses to the adverse effects of the Syrian crisis and longer term reforms in the areas of social safety nets and social services. Two emergency projects supported Government efforts to ensure continued coverage of safety net programs and provision of services by municipalities and communities. In parallel, this focus area supported reforms to improve protection of vulnerable households, including expansion of coverage to include the transient poor, and improve access to social services. The reforms included cost effectiveness measures, which would contribute to Focus Area I. 21. Objective #11. Improved Access to Safety Nets and Social Services. The increase in the number of refugees into Jordan worsened already stretched public finances and put at risk the strong achievements in human development and poverty reduction. The main Bank responses included support for emergency measures as well as longer term reforms: the FY08 Jordan Social Protection Project, the FY14 National Unified Registry & Outreach Program for Targeting Social Assistance Project, and the FY14 Emergency Project to Assist Jordan Partially Mitigate Impact of Syrian Conflict. Outcome indicators under this objective were: (i) 2.5 million beneficiaries of safety net programs (subsidies) in 2016, of which 48.5 percent are women; (ii) increase in population of workers covered by the Social Security Corporation (SSC) from 810,000 in 2010 to 1,000,000 in 2014; and (iii) 6,000 vulnerable households reached by social outreach workers hired by NGOs in 2015. The target for indicator (i) was met, with the ICRR for the Emergency Project to Assist Jordan Partially Mitigate Impact of Syrian Conflict reporting 2.5 million beneficiaries of safety net programs of which 48.6 percent were women. However, the ICRR rated the achievement of maintaining access to basic household needs as Modest and raised the issue of sustainability. The CLR reported that the targets for indicators (ii) and (iii) were not met. The ICRR rated the outcome of the Jordan Social Protection Project as Highly Unsatisfactory, and the latest ISR for the National Unified Registry & Outreach Worker Project rated overall implementation progress as Moderately Unsatisfactory. Objective #11 is rated Not Achieved. For Official Use Only CLR Review 9 Independent Evaluation Group 22. Objective #12. Improved Capacity of Municipalities and Communities to Cope with Impact of Syrian Refugee Inflow. The inflow of refugees has put pressure on public service provision as local authorities grapple with the lack of resources. Two projects supported this objective: the FY14 Emergency Services and Social Resilience Project and the FY14 Emergency Project to Assist Jordan Partially Mitigate Impact of Syrian Conflict. Outcome indicators were: (i) increase in beneficiaries of efforts to address immediate service delivery impacts of Syrian refuges inflows in targeted municipalities, from 0 in 2014 to 545,000 in 2016 of which 245,000 are women, 395,000 are host population, and 150,000 are refugees; (ii) at least 50 percent of the municipalities affected by the influx of Syrian refugees ensuring pre-crisis levels of per capita investments in at least two of the following areas – solid waste, local roads, street cleaning, parks/recreational space, and community services; and (iii) number of children (0-6 years) immunized to remain at or above 1.1 million. The latest ISRs for both projects reported that the targets were met: (i) 1,144,083 conflict affected people, of which 852,296 were female, received benefits; (ii) 100 percent of participating municipalities ensured pre-crisis levels of per capita investment in at least two areas identified above; and (iii) the immunization rate of children remained at 97 percent. Objective #12 is rated Achieved. 23. Objective #13. Improved Protection of Poor and Transient Poor Households in a Cost Effective Manner. Including the transient poor – those whose annual consumption exceeded the poverty level but nonetheless experienced episodes of poverty during the year – in poverty estimates significantly expanded the population that might be eligible for social assistance. The Bank worked with the Government in analyzing poverty data to target social assistance more effectively through AAA, the FY08 Social Protection Enhancement Project, and the FY14 National Unified Registry & Outreach Program for Targeting Social Assistance Project. The outcome indicator was the increase in number of poor and transient poor people benefitting from improved cash transfer from 0 in 2012 to 36,000 in 2015. The absence of comparative data, the unsatisfactory performance of the Social Protection Enhancement Project, and implementation problems in the National Unified Registry & Outreach Program for Targeting Social Assistance Project resulted in non-measurement of this indicator. Objective #13 is Not Achieved. 24. The two emergency projects made contributions to this focus area - IEG rated the Emergency Project to Assist Jordan Partially Mitigate Impact of Syrian Conflict Project as Moderately Satisfactory in terms of outcomes, and the latest ISR for the Emergency Services and Social Resilience Project rated overall implementation progress and progress towards achievement of PDO as Satisfactory. However, poor performance of the Social Protection Enhancement Project and the National Unified Registry & Outreach Program for Targeting Social Assistance Project, combined with lack of repeat poverty surveys, constrained Government ability to expand social protection and target social assistance more effectively. In view of the mixed performance and the concern over the progress on longer term reforms, this review rates Focus Area III Moderately Unsatisfactory. Overall Assessment and Rating 25. IEG rates overall outcome of the Jordan CPS as Moderately Satisfactory. Of the 13 objectives, five are rated Achieved, two are rated Mostly Achieved, two are rated Partially Achieved, and four are rated Not Achieved. In Focus Area I, the Programmatic DPLs, accompanied by AAA, contributed to the progress in transparency and internal controls in expenditure management, but there was lack of progress in improving targeting of social assistance. In Focus Area II, most of the CPS outcome targets were rated Achieved or Mostly Achieved, with partial achievement of the PPP and learning targets and poor progress in meeting the transport objective. Focus Area III had mixed results with positive contributions from the two emergency projects to CPS outcomes but lack of progress in improving protection and access to social services for vulnerable households. The poor performance of the Social Protection Enhancement Project and the National Unified Registry & Outreach Program for Targeting Social Assistance Project adversely affected achievement of three of the 13 objectives. For Official Use Only CLR Review 10 Independent Evaluation Group Focus Areas and Objectives CLR Ratings IEG Ratings Focus Area I: Strengthen Mostly Achieved Moderately Satisfactory Resilience to Economic Shocks Objective #1 Not Achieved Not Achieved Objective #2 Achieved Mostly Achieved Objective #3 Achieved Achieved Focus Area II: Seek Opportunities to Enhance Competitiveness and Mostly Achieved Moderately Satisfactory Shared Prosperity Objective #4 Not Achieved Not Achieved Objective #5 Achieved Achieved Objective #6 Achieved Achieved Objective #7 Achieved Achieved Objective #8 Achieved Mostly Achieved Objective #9 Mostly Achieved Partially Achieved Objective #10 Achieved Partially Achieved Focus Area III: Mitigate Partially Achieved Moderately Unsatisfactory Vulnerability to Reduce Poverty Objective #11 Partially Achieved Not Achieved Objective #12 Achieved Achieved Objective #13 Not Achieved Not Achieved 6. WBG Performance Lending and Investments 26. At the start of CPS period, there were 11 ongoing lending operations with a total approved amount of $614 million, about half of which was accounted for by one DPF operation and the other half by 10 IPF projects in the areas of education, skills development, infrastructure, regional development, and social protection. During the CPS period, five new lending operations amounting to $770 million were approved, compared to the four proposed operations amounting to $450 million in CPS and the five operations amounting to $795 million programmed in the CPSPR. Two Programmatic DPLs ($500 million) accounted for two-thirds of the new lending, with an emergency project ($150 million), an MSME project ($70 million) and its Additional Financing ($50 million) accounting for the remainder. During the CPS period, 18 grant and TF financed projects amounting to $83 million were approved, of which 80 percent was accounted for by three projects – the FY14 Emergency Services and Social Resilience Project ($52.7 million), the FY14 National Unified Registry and Outreach Program to Target Social Assistance Project ($9.5 million), and the FY14 Support to Building Active Labor Program ($4.7 million). 27. Of the 11 operations that closed during the CPS period, six were rated by IEG Moderately Satisfactory or better while five operations were rated Moderately Unsatisfactory or worse (one Moderately Unsatisfactory, three Unsatisfactory, and one Highly Unsatisfactory). Nine of the IEG rated operations had Significant or High Risk to Development Outcomes. Based on IEG ratings for closed projects, the Jordan performance (54.5 percent satisfactory outcome based on number of projects) was worse than that of the MNA Region (63.0 percent) and Bank-wide (70.4 percent). Based on amounts, the performance of closed projects was only 39.8 percent satisfactory, compared to 56.1 percent for MNA and 82.3 percent Bankwide. In terms of portfolio performance of active projects during the CPS period, project at risk of the Jordan portfolio was 23.2 percent of total number of projects, better than that of the MNA Region (31.5 percent) and slightly worse than Bank-wide (20.6 percent). The Jordan portfolio seemed to fare well in terms of commitment at risk, with the portfolio at 9.3 percent compared to 20.4 percent for the MNA region and 20.5 Bank-wide. In addition, the disbursement ratio for the For Official Use Only CLR Review 11 Independent Evaluation Group Jordan portfolio was 65.8 percent during the CPS period, compared to 19.3 percent for the MNA Region and 21.0 percent Bank-wide. This is explained by the two emergency operations that disbursed quickly. 28. IFC investment portfolio consisted of 43 projects with 22 partners for the amount of more than $1 billion. During the review period, IFC committed $357 million and mobilized $440 million investments in projects with 17 clients. The self-rating in IFC’s Development Outcome Tracking Systems (DOTS) recorded Successful performance for projects with two partners, Mostly Successful with five partners, Mostly Unsuccessful with three, and Unsuccessful with one, with development outcomes for the remaining six too early to tell. Investment in infrastructure accounted for 56 percent of the total, with education having a 42 percent share, and financial markets and manufacturing around one percent each. Of the new committed investments, 11 percent was equity and 89 percent was loans, with 45 percent of investments going to greenfield projects. 29. There were two investment projects reviewed by IEG during the CPS period, both implemented before FY12. In a 2013 Expanded Project Supervision Report (XPSR), the cement transport project was found Unsuccessful in its development outcome, and in a 2014 XPSR, the investment in the electricity distribution company was rated Successful. 30. During the CPS period MIGA issued four new guarantees amounting to $229 million: two of them covered new solar PV projects, one was issued for a wastewater treatment facility, and the largest one was issued for expansion and operation of existing bromine and bromine derivatives manufacturing plants. Analytic and Advisory Activities and Services 31. There were 31 AAA products – 8 ESW and 23 TA – completed during the CPS period focusing on growth, inclusion, poverty, and public expenditure topics, as well as contributing to program and project design, notably the programmatic DPLs and social assistance projects. About 70 percent of completed TAs supported Focus Area II (Enhance Competitiveness and Shared Prosperity). 32. IFC had 14 active country-specific advisory projects, of which five were already active in FY12. Of the 14 projects, six were closed with four rated Successful for development effectiveness (assistance in corporate governance, setting a risk management system in a bank, assistance to Jordan Loan Guarantee Corporation and to the wind farm project) and two with Mostly Unsuccessful results (Amman – Zarqa light rail transport, E4E initiative). Three projects were terminated. Among the remaining five active projects three are progressing according to schedule (enhancing SME lending in a bank, setting up a private credit bureau, and out of court debt workouts) and two are lagging behind and are flagged in Advisory Services Operations Portal (the secured lending and inspection reform projects). During the review period IFC initiated two regional advisory projects (Levant Corporate Governance and Women Banking Champions Program) which are on schedule, albeit the share of these regional projects implemented in Jordan is unknown. IEG evaluated one advisory project - the Jordan Amman – Zarqa light rail system PPP - and confirmed its Mostly Unsuccessful development effectiveness. Results Framework 33. The original CPS results matrix had 22 objectives which were too many given the size of the program. There was a mismatch between the instruments and the objectives, e.g., several of the education and skills development outcomes were not supported by the program. The CPSPR made substantial revisions to the results matrix by reducing the number objectives to 13, and reformulating many of the remaining ones to more strongly link the outcomes to the program, including the additional focus on addressing the effects of the Syrian crisis. While the revised results matrix helped give the program greater focus, there were several areas that could have been strengthened. First, the renaming of the first pillar or focus area to Strengthen Resilience to Economic Shocks resulted in a lack For Official Use Only CLR Review 12 Independent Evaluation Group of alignment of the interventions with the main areas that needed to be addressed in strengthening resilience – the original title would have been more appropriate to the nature of the interventions. Second, several of the outcome indicators were project related, e.g. increase in number of microloans from IFC investee MFIs, rather than program level, e.g., increase in domestic credit to private sector as percent of GDP or in the share of MSMEs in banking system lending portfolio. Project level indicators focused on one project’s outputs and did not reflect the contributions of other WBG interventions to program objectives. The results matrix could have tracked progress in several of main challenges described in the CPS, e.g., job creation, unemployment among the young and women, private investment (including FDI), and competitiveness. In addition, there were overlaps in the social assistance indicators in Objectives #1, #11 and #13 – it may be more appropriate and clearer to consolidate these objectives while recognizing their contribution to both fiscal and poverty objectives. Third, unlike in the case of Focus Area II, the results matrix for Focus Area III did not provide a clear link between the list of interventions and the outcomes in the areas of improving social protection and access to social services. This may reflect a lack of strategic approach of Bank support to reforms in these areas. Partnerships and Development Partner Coordination 34. Given its geopolitical significance, Jordan has received a significant share of external assistance, amounting to $5.3 billion of official development assistance and official aid during 2012-2014. EU and UN institutions accounted for about 95 percent of the $1.1 billion net disbursements by multilaterals. The Bank has developed strong working collaboration with UN agencies particularly those with a humanitarian mandate. The Emergency Services and Social Resilience Project, for example, enables municipalities to leverage platforms supported by other development partners. The Programmatic DPLs are jointly supported by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) through parallel financing. The Bank participates in government-led coordination mechanisms aimed at harmonizing donor activities on the Syrian crisis response, such as the Host Community Support Platform. Safeguards and Fiduciary Issues 35. Among closed and evaluated projects during the CPS period, compliance with the Bank’s safeguard policies was satisfactory, especially the two category “A” projects where multiple safeguard policies were triggered and fully complied with. The Amman Development Corridor project paid special attention to vulnerable groups including women on land acquisition and resettlement. In the Environment Practice, compliance with Environmental Assessment was not discussed in the ICR or the statement on compliance was not backed up by data although a monitoring system was established for tracking safeguard compliance. In addition, under the Integrated Ecosystem Management project, traditionally acquired land rights emerged as a larger problem than expected since Protected Areas (PA) lands, instead of being designated as public lands, were often used by local communities, thus causing lengthy time and delays in establishing PAs/Special Conservation Areas. Ownership and Flexibility 36. The CPS design reflected results of consultations with the Government and other stakeholders. The CPS was aligned with the priorities articulated in the National Agenda (2006-2015), Executive Development Program (2011-2013) and Government Work Plan (2013-2016), specifically those focusing on fiscal consolidation, growth, job creation, private sector development, governance and social inclusion. The strategic thrust of the CPS took into account discussions with development partners and various stakeholders. Representatives from both civil society and the private sector emphasized the need to: strengthen transparency and accountability in public administration; focus on education to improve employability, especially for women; and address constraints to MSMEs notably lack of access to finance. The CPS was designed to be flexible and demand driven with a small number of core Bank lending operations supported by AAA and grant/TF financed projects and complemented by IFC activities. With changes in the regional context, the CPS was adjusted to incorporate support towards mitigation of stresses to which the country is being subjected, while continuing to address For Official Use Only CLR Review 13 Independent Evaluation Group critical reforms to improve fiscal management and accountability, foster job-creating growth, and protect vulnerable households. The CPSPR utilized a “twin-track” approach to address the immediate and urgent consequences of the Syrian conflict while maintaining progress towards essential structural reforms. WBG Internal Cooperation 37. The CPS and CPSPR were joint products of WB and IFC and identified areas where each institution would use their areas of strength and specific instruments to contribute to common outcomes, notably in Focus Area II (Enhance Competitiveness and Shared Prosperity). IFC projects complemented Bank programmatic DPLs and IPF projects in MSME development, infrastructure, and education. IFC has taken an active role in the areas of access to finance, business climate reform, private investment in airports and renewable power generation, and vocational/technical training for the youth population segment. Risk Identification and Mitigation 38. The CPS and CPSPR identified the main program risks, many of which materialized and were addressed during the CPS period. Regional risk manifested itself in the form of the Syrian refugee crisis - the flexible design of the CPS enabled the incorporation of Bank support to the Jordanian response. Political risk was mitigated by the CPS focus on accountability, transparency, job creation, and expanded coverage and improved targeting of social protection and assistance. Project performance risks are being addressed by joint Bank-Government actions undertaken to enhance impact of Bank support. Overall Assessment and Rating 39. IEG rates WBG performance as good. The CPS was appropriately designed with flexibility built into the program in the context of regional and political risks. The CPSPR made significant revisions to the original results framework to give the program greater focus and take into account Bank response to the effects of the refugee crisis. The introduction of the “two-track” approach in the CPSPR helped address urgent issues while maintaining the trajectory of longer-term reforms. The CPS identified an appropriate mix of instruments to support the program, with programmatic DPF operations setting the policy and institutional framework for the reforms, IPF projects supporting implementation of various initiatives, AAA providing both analytical underpinning and technical assistance, and IFC investments and advisory services complementing Bank activities. The critical risks to the program were well identified, with mitigating measures proposed and implemented. Lessons from the previous CPS and feedback from stakeholder consultations were taken into account in the design. However, the Bank support to reforms in social protection and social assistance systems seems fragmented, with lack of a clearly articulated strategy or approach. In addition, the revised results framework included many indicators that were project results rather than program outcomes. The CPSPR revisions of the original CPS outcome indicators tended to lower the bar for program performance, e.g., beneficiaries of Bank credit line instead of share of MSME in total banking system loan portfolio. Finally, the objectives and interventions under Focus Area I did not match the challenges in strengthening resilience to economic shocks. 40. WB delivered five operations with lending volumes close to the enhanced CPSPR target. The Bank used emergency operations to address urgent needs and additional financing to scale up impact. ESW provided the analytical underpinning of many operations, while TA and grant/TF financing provided support to specific activities. IFC activities complemented Bank operations mainly in the competitiveness and shared prosperity focus area, indicating good internal cooperation. There were joint Bank-Government actions to help ensure government ownership and improve selectivity and implementation performance of projects. There is also evidence of coordination with other development partners, notably in the Programmatic DPF operations, the emergency projects, and several of the TA projects. Nonetheless, there were several projects that were not performing well, in particular the For Official Use Only CLR Review 14 Independent Evaluation Group National Unified Registry & Outreach Program for Targeting Social Assistance Project whose unsatisfactory performance resulted in the lack of progress in the expansion of coverage and improved targeting of social assistance. While project at risk declined in FY14, it doubled in FY15 indicating the need for more sustained efforts at improving implementation. Based on IEG ratings for projects that closed during the CPS period, the performance of the Jordan portfolio was worse than that of the MNA Region and Bank-wide. 7. Assessment of CLR Completion Report 41. The CLR provided a good description of the context within which the CPS was implemented and the changes in the strategic focus of the WBG program in response to adverse effects of the Syrian crisis. The evaluation of various components of the program was well supported resulting in generally appropriate ratings. The lessons were useful in informing the upcoming CPF. There are several areas that could have been strengthened. First, the CLR could have identified weaknesses in the CPS results framework, notably in the need for better articulation of the results chain to link project results and program outcomes, and in the choice of outcome indicators, many of which are project-level results. Second, the CLR could have provided an assessment of lack of progress and results in the social protection and social services reforms, with lessons for the next CPF. Third, the CLR could have assessed AAA contribution to the program. Fourth, there was a large number of grant and TF financed projects during the CPS period – the CLR could have discussed the issue of selectivity in TF projects. Fifth, there could have been greater discussion of the mechanisms of and lessons from donor coordination, in particular with respect to ensuring sufficient government capacity to implement the large number of activities supported by the donor community. Finally, the CLR could have provided big picture trends in the areas supported the CPS, e.g., improved competitiveness, increased private investment, reduction of poverty pockets, and reduction in employment disparities for women and youth. 8. Findings and Lessons 42. This review generally agrees with the CLR lessons and findings on: responding to immediate priorities while making progress in addressing longstanding issues; need for careful assessment of implementation capacity and institutional incentives to inform priorities for Bank support; replicating success in pilot initiatives or innovative approaches; importance of M&E in a rapidly changing environment, importance of sustained WBG support to promote private sector led economy; rapid adjustments to WBG activities informed by continuous monitoring of relevance and performance; and the strategic foundation provided by the MNA Strategy. 43. This review provides the following additional lessons. 44. Promoting inclusion requires complementing growth-enhancing programs with targeted interventions. In the case of Jordan, economic growth has not resulted in lower unemployment and sufficient job creation. In addition, unemployment rates for women and youth are higher than national average. The challenge for the next CPS is balancing the growth oriented and inclusion targeted interventions towards increasing the program’s impact on long-standing issues such as constraints to women and youth employment. 45. Projects need to be kept flexible in the context of rapidly changing environment, and problem projects require intensive implementation support and timely adjustment. These are the lessons from the Social Protection Enhancement Project, which was rated Highly Unsatisfactory for outcomes, and are likely applicable to the National Unified Registry & Outreach Program for Targeting Social For Official Use Only CLR Review 15 Independent Evaluation Group Assistance Project, whose poor implementation performance has been a critical constraint to reforms in the areas of social protection and social services. 46. It is important to manage the change process, including allowing for enough time and buy-in from stakeholders. This is the lesson from the Employer Driven Skills Development Project, which supported a paradigm shift from supply-driven to demand-driven technical and vocational education training (TVET) programs, but found government commitment to be lacking leading to serious delays and cancellation of certain activities. 47. Selectivity in project selection is critical to program success, especially in the context of weaknesses in implementation capacity. Given the number of possible areas of intervention by the WBG, selectivity would require a clear articulation of a set of criteria for prioritization, e.g., emphasis on projects addressing inclusion and on programs that build on synergies among WBG institutions. Annexes CLR Review 17 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 1: Summary Achievements of CAS/CPS Objectives Annex Table 2: Jordan Planned and Actual Lending, FY12-FY15 Annex Table 3: Jordan Grants and Trust Funds Active in FY12-15 Annex Table 4: Analytical and Advisory Work for Jordan, FY12-FY15 Annex Table 5: IEG Project Ratings for Jordan, FY12-15 Annex Table 6: IEG Project Ratings for Jordan and Comparators, FY12-15 Annex Table 7: Portfolio Status for Jordan and Comparators, FY12-15 Annex Table 8: Disbursement Ratio for the Jordan, FY12-15 Annex Table 9: Net Disbursement and Charges for Jordan, FY12-15 Annex Table 10: List of IFC Investments in Jordan Annex Table 11: List of IFC Advisory Services for Jordan Annex Table 12: IFC Net Commitment Activity for Jordan Annex Table 13: MIGA Activities Annex Table 14: Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance and Official Aid for Jordan Annex Table 15: Economic and Social Indicators for Jordan, 2012 - 2015 Annexes CLR Review 19 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 1: Summary of Achievements of CPS Objectives CPS FY12 – FY15 Actual Results IEG Comments Focus Area 1: Strengthen resilience to (as of current month/year) economic shocks 1. CPS Objective: Improved basis for targeting of subsidies (Not Achieved) Indicator: A National Unified Registry Events on the ground undermined the original project design and the NUR is Source: CLR (NUR) is in place and can be used by other not yet in place. The Team is in discussion to restructure the project design agencies for targeting social assistance. and responsible implementation agency. These changes will ensure a more The outcome indicator was revised at flexible registry, easier to maintain, better able to integrate data and target a the CPSPR stage. Baseline: No [2013] wider range of social benefits. Target: Yes [2015] 2. CPS Objective: Strengthened effectiveness of audit bureau (Mostly Achieved) Indicator: Question 59 of Jordan’s Global Progress towards this target was supported through the Second Programmatic Source: CLR Integrity Country Score: “Is the supreme DPL (P125483) (Management assessment: MS). The CLR reports The audit institution effective?” country met its target score of 75 in 2015. IEG was not able to validate this The outcome indicator was revised at reporting. the CPSPR stage. Baseline: 63 [2009] ISR Sequence 1 (P125483) reports that, as of March 2015, the score was Target: 75 [2015] 71.90 3. CPS Objective: Increased public access to information (Achieved) Indicator: Jordan’s Global Integrity Progress towards this target was supported through Second Programmatic Source: CLR Country Score indicator 1.3 (public access DPL (P125483). The CLR reports that Jordan took active steps to increase the to government information) level of public access to new legislation and documentation in order to improve The outcome indicator was revised at transparency. Requests for information from citizens were addressed within a the CPSPR stage. Baseline: 64.6 [2011] specified timeframe and the country was able to meet the target score of 75 for 2015, representing a significant improvement over the 2011 baseline score Target: 75 [2015] (64.6). ISR Sequence 1 (P125483) reports that, as of March 2015, the score was 75. Annexes CLR Review 20 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY12 – FY15 Actual Results IEG Comments Focus Area 2: Seek opportunities (as of current month/year) to enhance competitiveness and shared prosperity 4. CPS Objective: Improved Transport (Partially Achieved) Indicator: Travel time from Greater Progress towards this target was supported through the Amman Development Source: CLR Amman Municipality (GAM) to Zarqa Corridor Project (P081505) (IEG: U). At the time of project closing, the Ring Road improved through use of Amman had not yet been fully completed and final costs could not be determined although The outcome indicator was revised at Ring Road were already substantially higher than estimated. Other project aspects including the CPSPR stage. achieving greater efficiency in the logistics sector and providing land for productive Baseline: 60 minutes [2010] investment and urban development were not achieved. The travel time from GAM to Zarqa improved from 60 minutes (2010) to 48 minutes (2014). The project target Target: 40 minutes [2014] was 40 minutes 5. CPS Objective: Improved electricity generation, with a focus on renewable energy (Achieved) Indicator: Added renewable power Progress towards this target was supported through the GEF-funded Promotion of a Source: CLR generation capacity Wind Power Market Project (P093201) (ICR: MS). The CLR reports that he target of at least 70WM of New Generation Capacity was surpassed and almost doubled at The outcome indicator was revised at Baseline: 1.4 MW [2011] the time of project closure in March 2016, reaching 118.45MW. the CPSPR stage. Target: Minimum of 70 MW of New Promotion of a Wind Power Market (P093201) Generation Capacity from renewable  Increased electricity supply from grid-connected renewable power sources under Construction [2015] - Baseline: 72 GWh per year (06/26/2008) - Target: 272 GWh per year (12/31/2012) - Actual: 362 GWh per year (06/30/2015)  Generation capacity of renewable energy constructed - other than hydropower - Baseline: 5 MW (06/26/2008) - Target: 95 MW (06/30/2015) - Actual: 101.45 MW (06/30/2015)  Generation capacity of renewable energy constructed - wind - Baseline: 1.45 MW 06/26/2008 - Target: 91.45 MW 06/30/2015 - Actual: 91.45 MW 06/30/2015 6. CPS Objective: Improved solid waste services (Achieved) Indicator: Disposal capacity at Al Progress towards this target was supported through the Amman Solid Waste Source: CLR Ghabawi landfill Management Project (P104960) (IEG: U). The project closed on June 30, 2014 fully Annexes CLR Review 21 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY12 – FY15 Actual Results IEG Comments Focus Area 2: Seek opportunities (as of current month/year) to enhance competitiveness and shared prosperity meeting the landfill disposal capacity target but with limited results in other aspects The outcome indicator was revised at Baseline: 6 million tons [2010] relating to solid waste services. The project also experienced delays in the start of the CPSPR stage. the US$25m landfill gas collection and renewable energy production contract. Target: 8 million tons [2014] 7. CPS Objective: Improved environmental sustainability (Achieved) Indicator: (i) Production system (i) Progress towards this target was supported through the Badia Ecosystem and Source: CLR managed sustainably in protected Livelihoods (P127861) (Management assessment: MS). The CLR does not report on areas; (ii) Reduction of HCFC (hydro the proposed indicators but reports that, as of September 2015, the number of ha in The outcome indicator was revised at chlorofluorocarbons) ozone depletion new areas outside protected areas managed as biodiversity-friendly was 3,000. the CPSPR stage. potential (ODP) tons (ii) Progress towards this target was supported through the Jordan Ozone Depleting (i) The target for this indicator was set at Baseline: (i) 15,500 ha [2011]; (ii) Substances HCFC Phase-Out Project (ODS3) (P127702) (Management 23,000 ha by the 2014 at the CPSPR not available assessment: MU). As of May 2015, the reduction of HCFC (Tones/year) had been stage. The CLR includes a reduced 61. The CLR reports a 673 metric tons of ODS reduction. target of 3,000 ha by 2017. This review Target: (i) 23,000 ha [2014]; (ii) 83 used the CPSPR target as the (annual reduction) benchmark for the assessments. 8. CPS Objective: Improved access to finance for MSMEs (Mostly Achieved) Indicator: (i) MSME beneficiaries Progress towards these targets was supported through the Second Programmatic Source: CLR financed under the line of credit; (ii) DPL (P125483) (Management assessment: MS), MSME Development Project for Number of micro loans outstanding Inclusive Growth (P132314) (Management assessment: S) and IFC investments in The outcome indicator was revised at in IFC investee MFIs MFIs. the CPSPR stage. Baseline: (i) 0 [2013]; (ii) 90,829 (i) The CLR reports that the original target of 1,000 MSME beneficiaries was [2013] exceeded, reaching over 9,000. The percentage of female beneficiaries reached 87%, far exceeding the original target of 35%. Target: (i) 1,000 (2015) with women- owned businesses to represent 35%; (ii) The CLR reports that the number of microloans outstanding increased (ii) Target:108,000 [2015] substantially to 109,979. However, this review is not able to validate these numbers. 9. CPS Objective: Suitable legal environment to regulate PPPs (Mostly Achieved) Indicator: The new PPP Law applies Progress towards these targets was supporter through the Second Programmatic Source: CLR to all new PPP transactions and the DPL (P125483) (Management assessment: MS). As of June 2015, the Government PPP Unit has identified an initial had taken active steps in meeting this results area. A PPP Unit was put in place and The outcome indicator was revised at pipeline of five potential PPP fully staffed, as required, within the MoF. While a comprehensive PPP legal the CPSPR stage. projects, subject to validation framework was approved it has not yet been possible to determine the extent to Annexes CLR Review 22 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY12 – FY15 Actual Results IEG Comments Focus Area 2: Seek opportunities (as of current month/year) to enhance competitiveness and shared prosperity which the law has been applied in practice since an initial pipeline of five projects Baseline: No PPP law and no PPP has not yet been developed. Unit Target: By September 2015, effective application of the new PPP Law and effective use of the MoF’s PPP Unit 10. CPS Objective Improved learning environment (Partially Achieved) Indicator: (i) Schools that are (i) Progress towards this target was supported through Second Education Reform for Source: CLR implementing improvement plans the Knowledge Economy (P105036) (Management assessment: MS). As of July (number); (ii) Number of full time 2015, the number of schools having received financial support from MOE to continue The outcome indicator was revised at equivalent students in IFC client’s implementing School Improvement Plans was 3027 and 3716 as of April 2016. the CPSPR stage. various programs (ii) The IFC, under its E4E Initiative for Arab Youth, has invested in Luminus Baseline: (i) 789 [2008]; (ii) 5,663 Jordan’s leading private vocational and technical training provider. The CLR reports [2013] that this investment has provided 7,033 students with training in 2014 of which 1,628 were female and complements the IFC’s advisory work to develop a sustainable and Target: (i) 3,000 [2015]; (ii) 6,491 coordinated approach to equip young Jordanians with the skills needed in Jordan’s [2015] growing ICT industry. This review finds that it is too early to determine the investment project outcomes. In addition, the advisory work was rated Mostly Unsatisfactory. Annexes CLR Review 23 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY12 – FY15 Actual Results Focus Area 3: Mitigate IEG Comments (as of current month/year) vulnerability to reduce poverty 11. CPS Objective: Improved access to safety nets and social services (Partially Achieved) Indicator: (i) Beneficiaries of safety (i) The target of reaching 2.5m beneficiaries, of which 48.5% women was achieved Source: CLR net programs (subsidies), of which in 2015 through the Mitigate the Impact of Syrian Displacement on Jordan Project women (%); (ii) Population of (P145865) (IEG: MS). The outcome indicator was revised at workers covered by Social Security the CPSPR stage. Corporation (SSC); (iii) Vulnerable (ii) Technical assistance provided under the National Unified Registry and Outreach households reached by social Worker program has been delayed as changes to the operating context prompt a outreach workers hired by NGOs substantive project restructuring. The CLR does not report on the number of workers covered by SSC. Baseline: (i) 0 [2014]; (ii) 810,000 [2010] ; (iii) 0 [2013] (iii) Technical assistance provided under the National Unified Registry and Outreach Worker project (P144832) (Management assessment: MS) has been delayed as Target: (i) Target: 2.5 million [2016], changes to the operating context prompt a substantive project restructuring. No 48.5% women; (ii) 1 million [2014]; progress as of June 2015 (ISR Sequence 5). (iii) 6,000 [2015] 12. CPS Objective: Improved capacity of municipalities and communities to cope with impact of Syrian refugee inflow (Achieved) Indicator: Beneficiaries of efforts to Progress towards this target was provided through the Emergency Services and Source: CLR address immediate service delivery Social Resilience Project (P147689) (Management assessment: S). The CLR impacts of Syrian refugee inflows in reports that as of 1,144,083 beneficiaries have received benefits. The CLR does not The outcome indicator was revised at targeted municipalities (number) report on the indicator as it was formulated (i.e. no information on the percentage of the CPSPR stage. beneficiaries that were host population and refuges). Baseline: 0 [2014] P147689 - ISR Sequence 5 Target: 545,000 [2016] of which: (i)  Conflict affected people receiving benefits in 1st year of project effectiveness women: 245,250; (ii) host population: as of August 2015: 1,144,083 395,000; (iii) refugee:150,000  Conflict affected people receiving benefits in 1st year of project effectiveness– female as of August 2015: 852,296 Indicator: Municipalities most Progress towards this target was supported through the Emergency Services and Source: CLR affected by the influx of Syrian Social Resilience Project (P147689) (Management assessment: S). As of August refugees ensuring pre-crisis levels of 2015, the percentage of participating municipalities ensuring pre-crisis levels of per The outcome indicator was revised at per capita investments in at least two capita investments in at least 2 of the following: (i) solid waste; (ii) local roads; (iii) the CPSPR stage. of the following areas: (i) solid waste; street cleaning; (iv) parks (v) community services was 100% (ii) local roads; (iii) street cleaning; Annexes CLR Review 24 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY12 – FY15 Actual Results Focus Area 3: Mitigate IEG Comments (as of current month/year) vulnerability to reduce poverty (iv) parks/ recreational space; (v) community services Baseline: 0 [2014] Target: 50% [2016] Indicator: Number of children Progress towards this target was supported through the Mitigate the Impact of Source: CLR immunized (0-6 years) to remain at Syrian Displacement on Jordan (P145865) (IEG: MS). According to the ICRR of this or above baseline project, The immunization rate of children (0-6) remained at 97% throughout the life The outcome indicator was revised at of the project, which met the target. The CLR reports that 1.1 million children were the CPSPR stage. Baseline: 1.1 million [2012] immunized. Target: ≥ 1.1 million [2015] 13. CPS Objective 13: Improved protection of poor and transient poor households in a cost-effective manner (Not Achieved) Indicator: Number of poor and The CLR reports that a draft National Poverty Reduction Strategy produced by Source: CLR transient poor people benefitting 2012. However, neither the body of the CLR nor the results matrix report on the from improved cash transfer proposed indicator. The outcome indicator was revised at targeting the CPSPR stage. Baseline: 0 [ 2012] Target: 36,000 [2015] Annexes CLR Review 25 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 2: Jordan Planned and Actual Lending, FY12-FY15 Approved Project Proposed Approval Closing Proposed Proposed Project name IBRD Outcome ID FY FY FY Amount Amount Amount Rating Project Planned Under CPS/CPSPR 2012-15 CPS CPSPR P124441 First Programmatic DPL 2012 2012 2014 250 250 250 LIR: MU P125483 Second Programmatic DPL 2013 2014 2016 100 250 250 LIR: MS P132314 MSME Development Project for Inclusive Growth 2013 2013 2021 70 70 LIR: S P145865 Mitigate the Impact of Syrian Displacement on Jordan 2014 2014 2015 150 150 LIR: S DROPPED Independent Power Producer Project 2013 100 DROPPED DPL 3 2014 TBD DROPPED Transport (R15) 2015 75 Total Planned 450 795 720 Unplanned Projects during the CPS Period P132314 MSME Development Project for Inclusive Growth 2015 2021 50 LIR: S Total Unplanned 0 50 Approval Closing Approved On-going Projects during the CPS/CPSPR Period FY FY Amount P117023 Jordan Recovery Under Global Uncertainty Development Policy Loan 2010 2012 300 IEG: U P105036 Second Education Reform for the Knowledge Economy 2009 2017 60 LIR: MS P104960 JO-AMMAN SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT AND CARBON FINANCE 2009 2014 25 IEG: U P102487 Higher Education Reform for the Knowledge Economy 2009 2016 25 LIR: S P081505 2009 2013 33 -JO - Amman Development Corridor IEG: U P081505 2004 2012 38 P100546 Jordan Social Protection Enhancement Project 2008 2014 4 IEG: HU P100534 Jordan Employer Driven Skills Development Project 2008 2014 8 IEG: MU P094306 JO - Amman East Power Plant 2007 2024 45 NR P081823 Jordan - Cultural Heritage, Tourism & Urban Development 2007 2014 56 IEG: MS P070958 Regional and Local Development Project 2007 2015 20 LIR: MS Total On-going 614 Source: Jordan CPS, CPSPR, WB Business Intelligence Table 2a.1, 2a.4 and 2a.7 as of 5/3/16 *LIR: Latest internal rating. MU: Moderately Unsatisfactory. MS: Moderately Satisfactory. S: Satisfactory. HS: Highly Satisfactory. **NR: No Rating Annexes CLR Review 26 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 3: Jordan Grants and Trust Funds Active in FY12-15 Project Approval Closing Approved Outcome Project name TF ID ID FY FY Amount Rating* Strengthening Accountability for Improved TF P154047 2015 2017 587,800 Education Services in Jordan A0198 Strengthening the Regulatory and TF P147875 2014 2019 3,000,000 Institutional Framework for MSME Deve 16588 Strengthening the Capacity and TF P143478 Effectiveness of Jordan Supreme Audit 2014 2017 250,000 14423 Institute Jordan Support Building Active Labor TF P145241 2014 2017 4,750,000 Market Program 16138 NATIONAL UNIFIED REGISTRY AND TF LIR: MS P144832 2014 2018 9,500,000 OUTREACH WORKER PROGRAM 15887 Jordan- Emergency Services and Social TF LIR: S P147689 2014 2017 52,713,620 Resilience 15776 5M: Displaced People in Jordan / TF P132097 2014 2015 900,000 Lebanon 15288 Jordan Ozone Depleting Substances TF P127702 2013 2019 2,783,149 HCFC Phase-Out Project (ODS3) 13968 TF P127861 JO-Badia Ecosystem and Livelihoods 2013 2017 3,330,555 12887 TF P133339 Jordan Statistical Capacity Building TF 2013 2016 231,750 13568 NAP Alignment and Reporting to UNCCD TF P132086 2013 2015 143,000 - Jordan 12810 Revising the National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan, preparing the TF P133034 2013 2015 220,000 5th National report for CBD and 12985 undertaking CHM activ Jordan Public Procurement Reform TF P130517 2013 2016 250,000 Support 12283 Jordan ACC Case Management TF P130198 2013 2016 247,500 Improvement 12311 Enhancing Community-Driven Legal Aid TF P128689 2012 2017 2,606,600 Services to the Poor 11326 Delivering Legal Aid Services to Iraqi and TF P126689 2012 2016 1,827,530 Palestinian Refugees 10040 TF P124154 JO - JACPA Capacity Building 2012 2015 250,000 11789 TF P122070 Ombudsman Capacity-Building Support 2012 2015 250,000 99639 Jordan - Secondary Cities Development TF P121762 2011 2013 476,000 Strategy Program 97333 Regional Network for Education Research TF P114758 2010 2013 488,280 Initiative 94657 TF P108064 Jordan Energy Efficiency 2009 2014 1,000,000 93855 TF LIR: U P107410 JO-Amman Landfill Gas Recovery 2009 2015 12,974,353 92344 TF LIR: MS P093201 Promotion of a Wind Power Market 2009 2015 6,000,000 92162 Jordan: Measuring the Impact of National TF P109392 Policies and Strategies on Gender 2009 2013 294,050 92624 Equality Annexes CLR Review 27 Independent Evaluation Group Project Approval Closing Approved Outcome Project name TF ID ID FY FY Amount Rating* Integrated Ecosystem Management in the TF IEG: MS P075534 2008 2014 6,150,000 Jordan Rift Valley GEF 90462 Implementation of Economic Reform and TF IEG: S P053834 2005 2012 9,500,000 Development Program 52183 Total 120,724,187 Source: Client Connection as of 5/3/16 *IEG Validates RETF that are more than 5M *LIR: Latest internal rating. MU: Moderately Unsatisfactory. MS: Moderately Satisfactory. S: Satisfactory. HS: Highly Satisfactory. Annex Table 4: Analytical and Advisory Work for Jordan, FY12-FY15 Proj ID Economic and Sector Work Fiscal year Output Type P148394 Jordan Education PER FY16 Public Expenditure Review (PER) P156033 Poverty and Vulnerability - Phase 1 FY15 Other Poverty Study P156034 Distributional Impact of Reform Phase 1 FY15 Other Poverty Study P132580 Jordan Distributional Analysis FY14 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P133768 Jordan Country Gender Assessment FY14 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P124274 JO - Social Insurance PESW Phase II FY13 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P125757 Jordan Youth and Inclusion PSIA FY13 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P128513 Jordan Fiscal Consolidation Study FY13 Public Expenditure Review (PER) P124029 Jordan - Development Policy Review FY12 Development Policy Review (DPR) P113000 JO - Fiscal & Poverty Impact Study FY11 Other Poverty Study P123415 FSAP Development Module Jordan FY11 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) P109097 Jordan - ICR ROSC FY10 Insolvency Assessment (ROSC) Proj ID Technical Assistance Fiscal year Output Type P143787 Measuring Impact of Legal Aid on Poverty FY16 Not assigned P144289 Jordan AML/CFT Capacity Building FY16 Not assigned P144881 Jordan PPP Program FY16 Not assigned P149808 Service Delivery in Health and Education FY16 Not assigned P155187 Jordan National Housing Strategy Update FY16 Not assigned P156730 Jordan Access to Finance Review FY16 Not assigned P157982 Jordan Poverty TA FY16 Not assigned P158553 Support to Youth Empowerment FY16 Not assigned P158749 Syrian Refugees FY16 Not assigned P131759 Jordan #10202 Streng Solvency Supervision FY15 Not assigned P143413 JO-FM Support to Country Level Activity FY15 Not assigned P146245 Jordan#A020 Payment Systems Reforms FY15 Not assigned P147393 Jordan Gender Assessment/Action Plan FY15 Not assigned P148494 JO-Transport Sector TA FY15 Not assigned P152962 Jordan Health Financing FY15 Not assigned P122895 JO - Enterprise Survey/Financial Review FY14 Not assigned P124790 Jordan National Employment Strategy FY14 Not assigned P127992 JO - Jordan Competitiveness Partnership FY14 Not assigned P130932 Smart Grids for Green Growth & Reg. Int. FY14 Not assigned P132809 Jordan #10277 Restruc. MTPL Ins Market FY14 Not assigned P113053 JO - PESW Social Insurance FY13 Not assigned P122585 JO Employment for young women graduates FY13 Not assigned P125168 JO-Assistance in Defining of NAMAs FY13 Not assigned P132536 Jordan SABER WfD FY13 Not assigned P133599 Jordan Housing Finance TA FY13 Not assigned Annexes CLR Review 28 Independent Evaluation Group Proj ID Economic and Sector Work Fiscal year Output Type P144883 Jordan Health Policy Dialogue FY13 Not assigned P110853 JO - Energy Sector TA FY12 Not assigned P120259 Jordan: Support to Higher Education FY12 Not assigned P127146 Jordan NHA Institutionalization FY12 Not assigned P127926 Jordan - Poverty Reduction Strategy Work FY12 Not assigned P128127 Poverty Reduction Strategy TA FY12 Not assigned P128320 JO - Governance reform FY12 Not assigned P118600 JO - Justice Service Delivery FY11 Not assigned P123609 Jordan PFM FY11 Not assigned P113115 JO - Employment for Young Women Grad. FY10 Not assigned P114958 JO-CDM TA for Jordan FY10 Not assigned P117835 JO - Public Expenditure Management TA FY10 Not assigned P119394 JO - Pharmaceutical GAC TA FY10 Not assigned Source: WB Business Intelligence 5/3/16 Annex Table 5: IEG Project Ratings for Jordan, FY12-15 Total Exit FY Proj ID Project name Evaluated IEG Outcome IEG Risk to DO ($M) Implementation Of Economic Reform NEGLIGIBLE TO SATISFACTORY 2012 P053834 And Development Program 22.5 LOW JO Recovery Under Global UNSATISFACTORY HIGH 2012 P117023 Uncertainty Development Policy Loan 300.0 HIGHLY NEGLIGIBLE TO 2013 P049706 JO: ODS PHASEOUT II 5.6 SATISFACTORY LOW 2013 P081505 -JO - Amman Development Corridor 71.0 UNSATISFACTORY HIGH MODERATELY SIGNIFICANT 2014 P075534 JO-Integrated Ecosystems/Rift Valley 6.2 SATISFACTORY JO - Cultural Heritage, Tourism & MODERATELY SIGNIFICANT 2014 P081823 Urban 50.8 SATISFACTORY MODERATELY HIGH 2014 P100534 JO - Employer Driven Skills Dev. 3.4 UNSATISFACTORY HIGHLY HIGH 2014 P100546 JO - Social Protection Enhancement 1.0 UNSATISFACTORY JO - Amman Solid Waste UNSATISFACTORY SIGNIFICANT 2014 P104960 Management 9.6 Mitigating Impact of Syrian MODERATELY SIGNIFICANT 2015 P145865 Displacement 149.8 SATISFACTORY MODERATELY SIGNIFICANT 2015 P070958 JO - Regional & Local Development 19.7 SATISFACTORY Total 639.6 Source: AO Key IEG Ratings as of 5/3/16 Annexes CLR Review 29 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 6: IEG Project Ratings for Jordan and Comparators, FY12-15 RDO % RDO % Total Total Outcome Outcome Moderate or Moderate or Region Evaluated Evaluated % Sat ($) % Sat (No) Lower Lower ($M) (No) Sat ($) Sat (No) Jordan 639.6 11 39.8 54.5 - 18.2 MNA 3,159.9 74 56.1 63.0 17.4 17.6 World 76,878.8 921 82.3 70.4 60.9 47.6 Source: WB Business Warehouse as of 6/1416 * With IEG new methodology for evaluating projects, institutional development impact and sustainability are no longer rated separately. Annex Table 7: Portfolio Status for Jordan and Comparators, FY12-15 Fiscal year 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total Jordan # Proj 13 14 16 13 56 # Proj At Risk 3 4 2 4 13 % Proj At Risk 23.1 28.6 12.5 30.8 23.2 Net Comm Amt 265.6 263.1 474.7 468.6 1,472.0 Comm At Risk 17.5 41.3 6.2 72.5 137.5 % Commit at Risk 6.6 15.7 1.3 15.5 9.3 MNA # Proj 151 160 169 159 639 # Proj At Risk 54 47 39 61 201 % Proj At Risk 35.8 29.4 23.1 38.4 31.5 Net Comm Amt 8,532.3 9,082.0 12,335.1 13,628.7 43,578.1 Comm At Risk 1,839.9 1,817.0 2,284.4 2,931.5 8,872.8 % Commit at Risk 21.6 20.0 18.5 21.5 20.4 World # Proj 2,029 1,964 2,048 2,022 8,063 # Proj At Risk 387 414 412 444 1,657 % Proj At Risk 19.1 21.1 20.1 22.0 20.6 Net Comm Amt 173,706.1 176,202.6 192,610.1 201,045.2 743,564.0 Comm At Risk 24,465.0 40,805.6 40,933.5 45,987.7 152,191.8 % Commit at Risk 14.1 23.2 21.3 22.9 20.5 Source: WB BI as of 05/3/16 Annex Table 8: Disbursement Ratio for the Jordan, FY12-15 Fiscal Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 Overall Result Jordan Disbursement Ratio (%) 22.3 23.9 142.3 54.6 65.8 Inv Disb in FY 32.6 27.0 226.9 54.0 340.4 Inv Tot Undisb Begin 146.3 113.0 159.4 98.8 517.5 FY MNA Disbursement Ratio (%) 15.6 18.6 21.2 21.6 19.3 Inv Disb in FY 890.2 1,090.0 1,250.9 1,334.0 4,565.1 Inv Tot Undisb Begin 5,722.2 5,866.7 5,892.4 6,176.2 23,657.6 FY World Annexes CLR Review 30 Independent Evaluation Group Fiscal Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 Overall Result Disbursement Ratio (%) 20.8 20.6 20.8 21.8 21.0 Inv Disb in FY 21,048.2 20,510.4 20,757.0 21,852.7 84,168.3 Inv Tot Undisb Begin 101,234.3 99,588.0 99,852.7 100,343.7 401,018.8 FY * Calculated as IBRD/IDA Disbursements in FY / Opening Undisbursed Amount at FY. Restricted to Lending Instrument Type = Investment. AO disbursement ratio table as of 5/3/16 Annex Table 9: Net Disbursement and Charges for Jordan, FY12-15 Period Disb. Amt. Repay Amt. Net Amt. Charges Fees Net Transfer FY12 281,055,801.0 113,990,787.9 167,065,013.2 12,538,971.9 1,119,438.1 153,406,603.2 FY13 23,165,066.1 120,132,623.7 (96,967,557.7) 13,480,675.0 602,828.5 (111,051,061.2) FY14 464,755,280.0 114,645,733.5 350,109,546.5 9,550,605.6 1,393,528.5 339,165,412.5 FY15 37,930,738.2 108,671,399.1 (70,740,660.9) 10,793,577.7 333,092.5 (81,867,331.0) Report Total 806,906,885.3 457,440,544.1 349,466,341.2 46,363,830.2 3,448,887.6 299,653,623.5 World Bank Client Connection 5/3/16 Annexes CLR Review 31 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 10: List of IFC Investments in Jordan Investments Committed in FY12-FY15 Project Cmt Project Primary Greenfield Project Original Original Original Loan Equity Net Net Net ID FY Status Sector Name Code Size Loan Equity CMT Cancel Cancel Loan Equity Comm 34726 2015 Active Electric Power G 24,240 11,325 - 11,325 - - 11,325 - 11,325 34728 2015 Active Electric Power G 24,240 11,325 - 11,325 - - 11,325 - 11,325 35460 2015 Active Electric Power E 18,500 8,039 - 8,039 - - 8,039 - 8,039 35467 2015 Active Electric Power G 24,320 11,325 - 11,325 - - 11,325 - 11,325 35474 2015 Active Electric Power G 22,200 10,531 - 10,531 - - 10,531 - 10,531 35479 2015 Active Electric Power G 52,300 14,433 - 14,433 - - 14,433 - 14,433 35483 2015 Active Electric Power G 41,600 12,479 - 12,479 - - 12,479 - 12,479 35727 2015 Active Electric Power G 500 500 - 500 - - 500 - 500 35915 2015 Active Electric Power G 200 200 - 200 - - 200 - 200 35916 2015 Active Electric Power G 360 360 - 360 - - 360 - 360 35917 2015 Active Electric Power G 750 750 - 750 - - 750 - 750 35918 2015 Active Electric Power G 350 350 - 350 - - 350 - 350 35945 2015 Active Electric Power G 12,800 12,000 - 12,000 - - 12,000 - 12,000 36099 2015 Active Electric Power G 360 360 - 360 - - 360 - 360 36101 2015 Active Electric Power G 360 360 - 360 - - 360 - 360 Finance & 31217 2014 Active E 2,000 2,000 - 2,000 - - 2,000 - 2,000 Insurance 31627 2014 Active Electric Power G 290,643 69,089 - 69,089 - - 69,089 - 69,089 33894 2014 Active Electric Power G 2,700 2,700 - 2,700 - - 2,700 - 2,700 Transportation 34536 2014 Active and E 93,800 21,200 - 21,200 - - 21,200 - 21,200 Warehousing 35276 2014 Active Chemicals E 48,000 - - - - - - - - Finance & 31262 2013 Active E 2,000 2,000 - 2,000 - - 2,000 - 2,000 Insurance Transportation 32082 2013 Active and E 2,000 2,000 - 2,000 - - 2,000 - 2,000 Warehousing Finance & 32606 2013 Active E 2,000 2,000 - 2,000 - - 2,000 - 2,000 Insurance 28405 2012 Active Chemicals E 332,500 110,000 27,500 137,500 - - 137,500 27,500 137,500 Annexes CLR Review 32 Independent Evaluation Group Project Cmt Project Primary Greenfield Project Original Original Original Loan Equity Net Net Net ID FY Status Sector Name Code Size Loan Equity CMT Cancel Cancel Loan Equity Comm 30794 2012 Active Electric Power E 15,000 9,500 969 10,469 - - 10,469 969 10,469 32126 2012 Active Chemicals G 2,600 2,600 - 2,600 - - 2,600 - 2,600 Sub-Total 1,016,323 317,426 28,469 345,895 - - 345,895 28,469 345,895 Annexes CLR Review 33 Independent Evaluation Group Investments Committed pre-FY11 but active during FY12-15 Project CMT Project Primary Sector Greenfield Project Original Original Original Loan Equity Net Net Net ID FY Status Name Code Size Loan Equity CMT Cancel Cancel Loan Equity Comm 26798 2011 Active Chemicals G 685,900 125,000 - 125,000 - - 125,000 - 125,000 Finance & 28209 2011 Active E 4,925 9,713 - 9,713 - - 9,713 - 9,713 Insurance 28124 2010 Active Chemicals G 235,900 50,000 - 50,000 - - 50,000 - 50,000 Finance & 26165 2009 Active E 5,000 78,672 - 78,672 - - 78,672 - 78,672 Insurance Transportation 26878 2009 Active and G 23,500 16,000 - 16,000 - - 16,000 - 16,000 Warehousing Finance & 25785 2008 Active E 2,500 39,836 - 39,836 - - 39,836 - 39,836 Insurance Finance & 25928 2008 Active E 50,000 20,000 30,000 50,000 - 7 50,000 29,993 49,993 Insurance Accommodation 26113 2008 Active & Tourism E 141,000 40,000 - 40,000 - - 40,000 - 40,000 Services Transportation 26182 2008 Active and G 918,000 120,000 - 120,000 - - 120,000 - 120,000 Warehousing Transportation 26685 2008 Active and G 4,000 4,000 - 4,000 860 - 3,140 - 3,140 Warehousing Transportation 26864 2008 Active and G 3,200 3,200 - 3,200 524 - 2,676 - 2,676 Warehousing Finance & 25398 2007 Active E 15,000 143,518 - 143,518 - - 143,518 - 143,518 Insurance Transportation 24669 2006 Active and G 15,000 15,000 - 15,000 - - 15,000 - 15,000 Warehousing Oil, Gas and 11369 2002 Active G 17,800 4,400 600 5,000 - - 5,000 600 5,000 Mining Annexes CLR Review 34 Independent Evaluation Group Project CMT Project Primary Sector Greenfield Project Original Original Original Loan Equity Net Net Net ID FY Status Name Code Size Loan Equity CMT Cancel Cancel Loan Equity Comm Transportation 8731 1999 Active and E 3,992 - 1,000 1,000 - - 1,000 1,000 1,000 Warehousing Accommodation 7205 1997 Active & Tourism E 124,440 15,000 3,000 18,000 - 34 18,000 2,966 17,966 Services Sub-Total 2,250,157 684,339 34,600 718,939 1,384 41 717,555 34,559 717,514 TOTAL 3,266,480 1,001,765 63,069 1,064,834 1,384 41 1,063,449 63,028 1,063,408 Regional Investments active during FY12-15 Project CMT Project Primary Sector Greenfield Project Original Original Original Loan Equity Net Net Net ID FY Status Name Code Size Loan Equity CMT Cancel Cancel Loan Equity Comm Education 31625 2014 Active E 18,834 - 11,085 11,085 - - 11,085 11,085 11,085 Services Sub-Total 18,834 - 11,085 11,085 - - 11,085 11,085 11,085 Source: IFC-MIS Extract as of end June 30, 2015 Annexes CLR Review 35 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 11: List of IFC Advisory Services for Jordan Advisory Services Approved in FY12-15 Impl Primary Project Impl Project Total Project Name End Business ID Start FY Status Funds, US$ FY Line Jordan Loan Guarantee Corporation 599759 2014 2016 CLOSED FIG 337,000 SME/RM 600218 Bank al Etihad 2014 2016 ACTIVE FIG 578,600 600267 Jordan Street Lighting 2014 2016 TERMINATED PPP 10,000 589967 PCB Jordan 2 2013 2016 ACTIVE FAM 562,401 Jordan Debt Resolution and Business 592167 2013 2017 ACTIVE FAM 794,057 Exit 595227 Tafila Wind Project 2013 2014 CLOSED PPP 100,821 599089 e4e ICT Jordan 2013 2016 CLOSED TAC 1,325,000 599287 Tamweelcom RM 2013 2016 CLOSED FIG 319,000 JOR Inspection Reform Project Phase 574387 2012 2018 ACTIVE TAC 4,909,812 II Sub-Total 8,936,691 Advisory Services Approved pre-FY12 but active during FY12-15 Primary Impl Start Impl Total Funds, Project Name Project Status Business FY End FY US$ Line Amman Public Lighting 2011 2013 TERMINATED PPP 485,373 Amman Tunnel 2011 2013 TERMINATED PPP 252,557 Amman-Zarqa LRS 2010 2011 CLOSED PPP 1,928,504 Jordan Corporate Governance Project 2010 2013 CLOSED SBA 485,000 Jordan Secured Lending Project 2010 2016 ACTIVE FAM 1,172,950 Sub-Total 4,324,384 TOTAL 13,261,075 Regional Advisory Services active during FY12- FY15 Primary Impl Start Impl Total Funds, Project Name Project Status Business FY End FY US$ Line Women Banking Champions Program 2015 2020 ACTIVE FIG 1,525,000 Levant Corporate Governance Project 2013 2016 ACTIVE ESG 860,000 TOTAL 2,385,000 Source: IFC AS Data as of December 31, 2015 Annexes CLR Review 36 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 12: IFC net commitment activity in FY12 - FY15 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total Financial Markets (7,040) 4,000,000 2,000,000 - 5,992,960 Trade Finance (TF) 15,779,463 52,418,468 44,280,902 23,458,755 135,937,588 Agribusiness & Forestry 706 (265) (35) 88 494 Manufacturing 2,600,000 - - - 2,600,000 Health, Education, Life Sciences 137,500,000 - 11,089,653 796 148,590,449 Infrastructure 10,468,945 2,000,000 91,604,385 94,336,597 198,409,927 Total 166,342,074 58,418,203 148,974,905 117,796,236 491,531,418 Source: IFC MIS as of 5/24/16 Annex Table 13: List of MIGA Activities Max Project ID Contract Enterprise FY Sector Investor Gross Status Issuance Cayman 12716 Adenium Jordan - 1 2015 Active Power 10 Islands Cayman 12664 Jordan Solar One 2015 Active Power 6 Islands France / AS Samra Wastewater Treatment Water and 3943 2013 Active United 13 Expansion Project Wastewater States United 10391 Jordan Bromine Company Limited 2012 Active Manufacturing 200 States Total 229 Source: MIGA 5-24-16 Annexes CLR Review 37 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 14: Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance and Official Aid for Jordan Development Partners 2012 2013 2014 Australia 4.21 0.72 9.89 Austria 0.89 0.67 0.56 Belgium -0.44 -0.17 -0.24 Canada 15.61 60.85 56.51 Czech Republic 0.45 0.47 0.44 Denmark 1.13 1.43 1.3 Finland 0.74 0.59 1 France 125.54 81.27 15.06 Germany 70.56 47.93 57.88 Greece 1.74 0.21 0.35 Ireland 0.77 0.59 1.25 Italy 4.9 2.4 5.43 Japan 30.68 -57.19 58.41 Korea 23.6 14.85 40.16 Luxembourg 0.09 0.02 0.66 Netherlands 2.56 4.09 1.74 New Zealand 0.02 Norway 2.98 10.81 11.14 Poland 0.02 0.03 0.04 Portugal 0 0 Slovak Republic 0.09 0.03 Slovenia 0.02 Spain 3.62 6.59 0.27 Sweden 1.77 8.81 8.09 Switzerland 7.07 14.57 10.45 United Kingdom 7.53 26.1 30.52 United States 546.96 527.18 1183.45 DAC Countries, Total 853.07 752.82 1494.43 Arab Fund [AFESD] -29.13 86.43 -15.65 EU Institutions 123.9 199.26 198.63 Food and Agriculture Organisation [FAO] 0.01 Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization [GAVI] Global Environment Facility [GEF] 4.43 5.87 5.25 Global Green Growth Institute [GGGI] .. 0.05 0.04 Global Fund 1.12 0.31 0.05 International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA] 0.22 0.66 0.66 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development [IBRD] International Development Association [IDA] -2.5 -2.5 IFAD -2.65 -2.13 -1.9 International Finance Corporation [IFC] IMF (Concessional Trust Funds) Islamic Development Bank [IsDB] -3.9 -3.05 -3.06 Montreal Protocol 0.14 0.17 0.4 OPEC Fund for International Development [OFID] -1.09 -1.44 -1.55 UNDP 0.64 0.54 0.72 UNFPA 1.71 0.63 0.95 UNICEF 3.21 2 2.68 UNRWA 160.16 123 173.6 WFP 1.08 11.67 7.41 Annexes CLR Review 38 Independent Evaluation Group Development Partners 2012 2013 2014 World Health Organisation [WHO] 0.43 0.69 0.4 Multilateral, Total 257.77 422.17 368.63 Bulgaria 0.11 Cyprus 0.03 Estonia 0.06 0.34 0.14 Hungary 0.01 0.24 1.94 Israel 37.92 41.11 44.09 Kuwait [KFAED] 5.59 47.81 96.74 Lithuania 0.03 Romania 0.56 0.26 0.3 Russia 2.7 5.44 3 Thailand 0.03 0.03 0.05 Turkey 3.53 3.42 4.95 United Arab Emirates -3.98 128.95 684.8 Non-DAC Countries, Total 46.45 227.74 836.01 Development Partners Total 1157.29 1402.73 2699.07 Source: OECD Stat, [DAC2a] as of May 4, 2016 Annexes CLR Review 39 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 15: Economic and Social Indicators for Jordan, 2012 - 2015 JOR MNA World Series Name 2012 2013 2014 2015 Average 2011-2015 Growth and Inflation GDP growth (annual %) 2.7 2.8 3.1 .. 2.9 3.1 2.4 GDP per capita growth (annual %) 0.4 0.6 0.8 .. 0.6 1.0 1.2 GNI per capita, PPP (current international 11,400.0 11,660.0 11,910.0 .. 11,656.7 17,625.2 14,425.9 $) GNI per capita, Atlas method (current 4,660.0 4,940.0 5,160.0 .. 4,920.0 8,475.3 10,632.7 US$) (Millions) Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) 4.5 4.8 2.9 (0.9) 2.8 2.7 2.6 Composition of GDP (%) Agriculture, value added (% of GDP) 3.1 3.4 3.8 .. 3.4 5.9 3.1 Industry, value added (% of GDP) 30.1 29.7 29.8 .. 29.8 49.5 26.6 Services, etc., value added (% of GDP) 66.8 66.9 66.4 .. 66.7 44.5 70.4 Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP) 26.0 27.2 27.2 .. 26.8 24.2 21.9 Gross domestic savings (% of GDP) (1.1) (1.4) 2.0 .. -0.2 37.7 22.6 External Accounts Exports of goods and services (% of 46.2 42.5 43.3 .. 44.0 49.9 29.8 GDP) Imports of goods and services (% of 74.3 72.0 69.2 .. 71.8 39.0 29.6 GDP) Current account balance (% of GDP) (15.2) (10.3) (6.8) .. -10.8 External debt stocks (% of GNI) 60.5 69.7 68.5 .. 66.2 Total debt service (% of GNI) 3.2 3.0 3.9 .. 3.4 Total reserves in months of imports 4.4 6.6 7.4 .. 6.1 28.6 13.4 Fiscal Accounts /1 General government revenue (% of GDP) 23.011 24.14 27.876 24.96 25.0 General government total expenditure (% 31.24 29.622 30.864 28.963 30.2 of GDP) General government net -8.229 -5.482 -2.988 -4.003 -5.2 lending/borrowing (% of GDP) General government gross debt (% of 80.946 86.678 89.049 91.683 87.1 GDP) Health Life expectancy at birth, total (years) 73.7 73.9 74.1 .. 73.9 72.6 71.2 Immunization, DPT (% of children ages 98.0 98.0 98.0 .. 98.0 89.3 85.7 12-23 months) Annexes CLR Review 40 Independent Evaluation Group JOR MNA World Series Name 2012 2013 2014 2015 Average 2011-2015 Growth and Inflation Improved sanitation facilities (% of 98.6 98.6 98.6 98.6 98.6 90.5 66.7 population with access) Improved water source (% of population 92.1 92.2 92.3 92.3 92.2 87.7 83.4 with access) Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) 16.8 16.3 15.8 15.4 16.1 20.6 33.2 Education School enrollment, preprimary (% gross) 32.2 .. .. .. 32.2 28.3 53.5 School enrollment, primary (% gross) 88.7 .. .. .. 88.7 109.5 108.2 School enrollment, secondary (% gross) 84.3 .. .. .. 84.3 80.2 74.6 Population Population, total (Millions) 6,318,000 6,460,000 6,607,000 .. 6,461,667 409,306,906 7,174,602,917 Population growth (annual %) 2.2 2.2 2.3 .. 2.2 2.0 1.2 Urban population (% of total) 83.0 83.2 83.4 .. 83.2 63.4 52.9 Source: DDP as of 5/2/2016 *International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2016