95409 The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedoniai CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE COUNTRY NOTE September 2010 www.worldbank.org/eca/climateandagriculture This Country Note for Macedonia is part of a series of country briefs that summarize information relevant to climate change and agriculture for four pilot countries in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) Region, with a particular focus on climate and crop projections, adaptation options, policy development and institutional involvement. The Note series has been developed to provide a baseline of knowledge on climate change and agriculture for the pilot countries participating in the Regional Program on Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in ECA Agricultural Systems. This note for Macedonia was shared with the Government and other agricultural sector stakeholders and used as an engagement tool for a National Awareness Raising and Consultation Workshop, held in Skopje in May 2010. Feedback and comments on the Note from this consultation process have been incorporated into this updated version in collaboration with the Macedonian Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Water Economy (MAFWE). Climate Change Exposure and Risk for Macedonia In this Note More than 19% of Macedonia’s population is employed I. Introduction...........................................................2 in agriculture and this sector accounts for 12% of the country’s GDP. Furthermore, more than 36% of II. Overview of Agriculture........................................2 Macedonia’s rural population earns less than US$5/day III. Agriculture and the Adaption Deficit....................3 and is highly vulnerable to any change in agricultural IV. Agriculture and the Economy............................... 4 . income. Because agriculture is highly climate sensitive, V. Agriculture and the Environment......................... 5 . this rural population is acutely exposed to the risks VI. The Climate Context............................................. 5 . associated with climate change. Historical data indicate that Macedonia is characterized by a highly variable VII. Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture, Water climate that has already experienced an increase in Resources and Forestry........................................7 mean temperature and moisture deficits, as well as an VIII. Potential Adaption Measures for the Agricultural increase in the severity of extreme events like drought, Sector...................................................................11 heat waves and forest fires. Climate projections for the IX. Impacts of Agriculture on Greenhouse Gas future indicate that Macedonia, on average, will be exposed to 4,18,20 : Emissions.............................................................12 o A 1.9 C increase in mean annual temperature by 2050, X. The Policy Context.............................................. 13 . with the greatest warming projected to occur in summer XI. The Institutional Context.....................................14 o (2.5 C increase) XII. Ways Forward.....................................................15 A decline in mean annual precipitation by 5% by 2050, with a decline in summer of 17% A more marginal and risky agricultural production Macedonia at a Glance3 environment, as changes in climate exacerbate the already significant crop moisture deficit, especially during summer Population 2,066,718 (2010 est) Population below the 28.7% Increased exposure to new pests and diseases for poverty line agricultural crops, forests and livestock GDP US $9.22 billion (2009) Increased growing seasons, providing opportunities in GDP Per Capita US $4,515 (2009) some areas for new crops, increased productivity and changes to cropping patterns Agriculture as a % of GDP 11% . i Note that The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia will be referred to as “Macedonia” in the interest of conciseness 1 I. Introduction The Europe and Central Asia (ECA) Region of the World Bank recently released a report titled “ Managing Uncertainty: 1 Adapting to Climate Change in Europe and Central Asia” . The report is a flagship document that raises awareness of the threats, challenges and opportunities that ECA countries and communities will face in adapting to climate change across a variety of economic sectors. This Country Note was developed as a basis for beginning work in Macedonia under a World Bank regional program designed to enhance the ability of ECA countries to integrate climate change adaptation into 2 agricultural policies, programs and investments . To support the Macedonian Government in this effort it was agreed that the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Water Economy (MAFWE) and the World Bank would work together to jointly develop the Macedonian Response to Climate Change for Figure 1: Macedonia Vulnerability Indicators Agriculture. Agriculture is of significant importance to Macedonia in terms of employment, rural livelihoods, food security and exports. This sector, however, is highly climate-sensitive and potential adverse changes in temperature, precipitation and the frequency of extreme events (e.g., droughts, heat waves, floods, forest fires) are likely to exacerbate existing inequalities between the rich and the more vulnerable poor populations in the country. This deterioration will place a strain on institutions, food supply and rural growth. Additionally, the country’s limited financial resources and underdeveloped institutional capacity to respond to natural climatic hazards pose a threat to future sustainable agricultural production and rural development. Figure 1 displays nine climate change vulnerability indicators and compares Macedonia to the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) Region average for transition economies. Although agriculture and rural livelihoods in Note: ^ECA statistics come from transitioning and developing economies in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, where available; employment in agriculture (% of Macedonia appear to be equally or less vulnerable than the total employment); rain-fed cropping (% of cropland); water usage in agriculture (% ECA average to climate change for a number of indicators, of total annual freshwater extraction); uninsured cropland (estimate); soil degradation (% of total land); risk of extreme weather events (additional 1:20 year three categories where Macedonia appears more events 2070-2100 vs. 1961-1990); share of food – % of total expenditures; GDP vulnerable than other countries in the region are soil from Agriculture; Sources: World Development Indicators 2008; EarthTrends 2003, FAO AGL 2005; Baettig, M. et al., 2007. ECA Databank degradation, percentage of GDP derived from agriculture and share of food as a percentage of total household expenditure. When compared to high income European countries (for categories where figures are available), the differences in vulnerability to climate change are stark, with high income European countries having an average of just 4.5% of the population employed in agriculture, as opposed to 19.4% in Macedonia. Furthermore, the average GDP derived from agriculture for high income European countries is just 2%, 3 compared to 12% in Macedonia . II. Overview of Agriculture Land use for agriculture in the form of cropland and pastures is Acknowledgements: substantial in Macedonia and occupies approximately 50% of the surface area of the country (see Figure 2), with forests constituting This Country Note was produced by a World Bank team led by William Sutton, comprising Jitendra Srivastava, another 37%. The vast majority of cropland in the country is rain-fed, 3 Brendan Lynch, John Mackedon and Biljana Dzartova- with an estimated area of irrigated cropland of less than 10% . With the Petrovska (SIDA Macedonia) under ECSSD Sector exception of the western parts of the country, water deficiencies occur Manager Dina Umali-Deininger. Funding was provided by during the summer season and result in significant moisture stress for the Trust Fund for Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development (TFESSD), and the Bank- summer and annual crops. In an average year, evapo-transpiration is Netherlands Partnership Program (BNPP). For more higher than rainfall, resulting in crop water deficits of approximately information, please visit our website at 4 250mm in western areas and 450mm in eastern areas . Such high worldbank.org/eca/climateandagriculture or email John levels of moisture stress adversely impact crop production and quality Mackedon at jmackedon@worldbank.org and make reliable, cost-effective and timely irrigation almost a 2 necessity for the production of competitive, high value summer Figure 2: Land Use in Macedonia 4 and perennial crops . The area planted in 2007 for the production of a variety of crops in Macedonia is displayed in Figure 3. By area, wheat is clearly the major annual crop grown, with smaller areas used Forests for barley, maize and a range of vegetable crops. Grapes are 37% the main perennial crop in Macedonia and occupy close to 5 Pastures 25,000ha . Although the area occupied by fruit and nut trees is 25% relatively small, potential exists to expand this area in the future. As most crop production is rain-fed, there can be significant changes in mix and crop area planted on a year-to- Urban year basis, depending on the timing and quantity of rainfall, as and Other 3 well as associated extreme events, like droughts and floods . 3% Cropland Barren 25% In terms of certified organic agriculture production, figures from Land 2006 indicate that a mere 500 hectares, across approximately Lakes 6 8% 100 farms, were using organic farming systems in Macedonia . 2% Presently, the major organic crops grown are cereals, with Source: http://www2.mst.dk/udgiv/Publications/2000/87-7909-888-6/html/images/kap13_2.jpg smaller areas of high value organic fruits, vegetables and nuts 6 also being grown . Given the increasing demand for organic produce and the suitability of cropland in Macedonia, there is significant scope for expansion of the organic agricultural sector – especially for high-value horticulture and vegetable crops. Figure 3: Area Planted by Crop in Macedonia, 2007 Projected changes in climate are serious risks to agricultural production, water availability, food security and economic growth for rural 4000 Area Planted by Crop livelihoods in Macedonia. Across the country 3000 in Macedonia, 2007 (Hectares) there will be significant variation in both 10000 7000 1000 vulnerability and associated adaptive capacity, 12000 wheat depending on a range of factors. These factors Source: State Statistical Office of the Republic of Macedonia, 2007. Census of Agriculture, 2007 include the current climatic exposure, financial 18000 Skopje. Barley capacity, social structures, institutional capacity, 89000 knowledge and education, and access to Maize 22000 infrastructure. Areas that are already under Grapes marginal rain-fed production will be at 26000 increasing risk, while communities in relatively 32000 Vegetable Crops 28000 high rainfall or irrigated areas will have more Alfalfa adaptation options to buffer their production systems against projected changes in climate. If Tobacco appropriate measures are put in place, potential opportunities to increase production as a result of climate change also exist in some instances. Source: State Statistics Office of the Republic of Macedonia, 2007. Census of Agriculture, 2007, Skopje III. Agriculture and the Adaptation Deficit The sensitivity of the agricultural sector to climate has important implications in Macedonia. With a considerable proportion of the rural population dependent on agriculture for their livelihood, rural communities are particularly 3 vulnerable to risks posed by changes that may occur as a result of climate change . This risk is further intensified by Macedonia’s relatively low productivity associated with a lack of adaptive capacity to the present climate, also known as “the adaptation deficit”. This deficit is best illustrated by a comparison of wheat yields from other countries in the region, as displayed in Figure 4. For example, the average wheat yield for Macedonia from 7 2005-07 was just 82% of Serbia and 61% of the EU-27 countries . This underperformance can be attributed to a complex set of factors, including distortions and imperfections in agricultural output and input markets; poor quality public services in areas like agricultural education, extension, research and market information systems; delays in farm restructuring; undeveloped agricultural land markets; lack of access to finance; unsustainable 3 management of soils; insufficient irrigation; and high vulnerability to natural hazards like droughts, floods, frosts, 8,9 and severe storms . Figure 4: Comparative Average Wheat Yields, 2005-07 For example, the average wheat yield for Macedonia from 2005- 10 07 was just 82% of Serbia and 61% of the EU-27 countries . This underperformance can be attributed to a complex set of factors, including distortions and imperfections in agricultural output and input markets; poor quality public services in areas like agricultural education, extension, research and market information systems; delays in farm restructuring; undeveloped agricultural land markets; lack of access to finance; unsustainable management of soils; insufficient irrigation; and high vulnerability to natural hazards like droughts, floods, frosts, 11,12 and severe storms . As challenges created by this unfavorable environment for agriculture will increase as a result of climate change, it is imperative that action be taken to address the adaptation deficit as part of any climate change adaptation strategy. Source: www.faostat.fao.org IV. Agriculture and the Economy The economy of Macedonia has gone through a major transition since achieving independence in 1991. Although GDP in the country declined throughout the 1990s, this trend reversed during the new millennium, with total estimated GDP 3 reaching US$ 9.22 billion in 2009 and per capita GDP reaching US$ 4,515 Agriculture has traditionally been an important and relatively stable contributor to the Macedonian economy since independence. Despite structural and non-structural changes to the agricultural sector, post-independence agricultural GDP marginally increased at an average annual rate of 3 0.2% from 1990-2000 . 3 The sector further expanded from 2000-2007 at an average annual rate of 1.3% . At the commodity level, grapes, cow milk, tobacco, chillies and peppers, wheat, apples and tomatoes made the most significant contribution to the average value of agricultural production in Macedonia from 2005-07 (see Figure 5). Figure 5: Average Value of Agricultural Production by Commodity, 2005-07 While field crops like wheat, barley and maize are grown extensively and occupy a large percentage of total cropland (see Figure 3), their contribution by value is significantly less than the contribution made by grapes, tobacco and the combined value of various fruits and 10 vegetables, which garner a higher price . Although the sector has grown, its share of GDP nonetheless declined marginally from 13% to 12% between 1995 and 2007, as other sectors of the economy – such as services – 3 have grown at a faster pace . However, when the agricultural sector is combined with the agro-processing sector, the overall contribution of agriculture to the Macedonian economy 12 increases to 16% of GDP and it is clear that there is potential for greater value-adding in this sector. These figures highlight the inherent vulnerability of the national economy to climate related events that impact the agricultural sector. Source: Adapted from http://faostat.fao.org 4 V. Agriculture and the Environment Agri-environmental management has implications for the resilience of agriculture to climate change. The most significant impacts agriculture has on the Macedonian environment are associated with soil degradation; water-logging and salinization as a result of unsustainable agricultural practices and land use; poor water management; and 12 biodiversity degradation . All of these issues adversely affect the natural resource base of the country and increase the vulnerability of agricultural systems and rural livelihoods to external shocks such as climate change. Soil erosion is a significant problem across vast areas of the country, primarily as a result of poor land management. Approximately 48% of the country is impacted by severe or very severe 13 rates of erosion . Although erosion results from steep slopes, climate, land cover patterns, soil properties and other natural processes, human factors like poor cultivation practices, overgrazing and deforestation have all combined to accelerate the rate of erosion in Macedonia and contribute more broadly to land 12 degradation across the country . Poor agricultural practices at the farm level (e.g., improper crop rotations, burning of crop residues, and poor water and nutrient management) also combine with the impacts of soil erosion and result in significant 12 soil degradation . High rates of erosion have also created pollution of waterways and have negatively impacted the function 12 of reservoirs and irrigation infrastructure . In the irrigation sector, poor on-farm irrigation system design, inefficient application practices and inadequately maintained irrigation system infrastructure have created widespread water-logging 12 and salinization, which negatively impact both short- and long-term agricultural productivity on affected lands and waste precious water resources that could otherwise be utilized. It should be stressed that many of the environmental problems caused by agriculture can be addressed concurrently by bridging the adaptation deficit to the current and projected future climates. This highlights the importance of integrating environmental sustainability into the climate change agenda while simultaneously increasing agricultural sector competitiveness, productivity, sustainability and profitability. VI. The Climate Context Climate Description and Historical Trends Due to its proximity to both Continental and Mediterranean air masses, as well as the complex geography of valleys and mountains across the country, Macedonia has a highly diverse climate (see figure 6). The various microclimates of Macedonia have produced a highly Figure 6: Agro-Ecological Zones of Macedonia diverse agricultural sector with a large range of crops grown. The climate ranges from alpine in the west and north-west of the country, to Mediterranean in the southern 14 districts of the Vardar river valley , and is characterized by cold winters, hot summers and a highly variable 15 precipitation regime . Alternating periods of long drought and high intensity rainfall are also a common feature of the climate. This oscillation in climate, when combined with poor land management, results in soil 16 erosion and land degradation and creates a challenging environment for the agricultural sector, particularly for farmers of rain-fed crops. Annual mean temperatures range o from approximately 8 C in the north- 5 o 17 west regions of the country to 15 C in central areas . Precipitation generally increases from east to west across the country, with annual precipitation ranging from about 400mm in the south-eastern and central districts to over 1000mm in 18 the mountain areas that border Albania and Kosovo . Although there is considerable inter-annual variability, general historical trends indicate that overall average temperature across Macedonia has moderately increased by approximately o ii,17 0.2 C while precipitation has decreased significantly by approximately 100mm. Climate Projections The Second National Communication of Macedonia outlines climate projections for the country. The general trends from this analysis indicate that Macedonia will become hotter and moderately drier as time passes, with substantial reductions in 18 summer precipitation and more frequent and severe extreme events such as droughts and floods . This analysis was performed using four general circulation models (GCM’s), a combination of six different emission scenarios and four time 18 horizons. As demonstrated by the ensemble range for both temperature and precipitation in Table 1 , there are significant differences in the extent of the potential changes between the four GCM models and associated emissions scenarios. However, from a trend perspective, all models Table 1: Future Climate Projections for Macedonia are in agreement in projecting increased Compared to the 1961-90 Period temperatures and decreased precipitation Time Temperature Projections Precipitation Projections across the four time horizons. The ensemble Horizon Ensemble Ensemble Ensemble Ensemble average projects that the mean temperature for Average Range Average Range Macedonia will increase by 1.0°C and 1.9°C by °C °C (%) (%) 2025 and 2050, respectively. For the same time 2025 1 0.9 – 1.1 -3% -1% – -6% horizons, mean precipitation is projected to 2050 1.9 1.6 – 2.1 -5% -2% – -7% decline by 3% and 5%, respectively. Together, 2075 2.9 2.2 – 3.6 -8% -4% – -12% this will result in increased aridity. 2100 3.8 2.7 – 5.4 -13% -5% – -21% There is significant seasonal variation in Source: Adapted from Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning, 2008. Second National Communication on Climate Change, the Republic of Macedonia, Skopje impacts. Projections on a seasonal basis for 2050 show increased temperatures for all 18 seasons, ranging from 1.5°C to 2.5°C for spring and summer, respectively . For the same time period, mean precipitation is projected to increase slightly in winter (1%), decline moderately in autumn (4%) and spring (6%) and decline significantly 18 in summer (17% ). Given the importance of spring and summer precipitation for crop flowering and growth, this projected decline in precipitation has significant implications for the agricultural sector. Table 2: Future Sub-National Climate Projections for Macedonia There is also significant spatial variation. Because of Compared to the 1961-90 Period the complex geography of Macedonia, there will be Time Mean Temperature Mean Precipitation important differences in the magnitude of climate Horizon Projection °C Projection (%) changes at a sub-national scale. The Second South- Central North- South- Central North- National Communication outlines these differences East West East West via localized empirical downscaling projections for the 2025 1.2 1.1 1.3 -3 -3 -2 south-east, central and north-west parts of the country (see Table 2). The greatest warming is projected to 2050 2.3 2.2 2.6 -5 -6 -3 occur in the mountainous north-west region of the 2075 3.4 3.3 3.9 -9 -9 -5 country – where only minimal reductions in 2100 4.6 4.5 5.3 -12 -13 -8 Source: Adapted from Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning, 2008. Second National precipitation are projected by 2050. The south-east Communication on Climate Change, The Republic of Macedonia, Skopje. and central regions of the country are projected to warm at a slightly slower pace, although precipitation will decline at a greater rate especially in the second half of the 18 century . The implications for agriculture become much clearer when seasonal and sub-national projections are combined. For example, in the south-east region, summer precipitation by 2100 is projected to decrease by 19% while temperature will 18 increase by 6°C . Such extreme changes in the temperature and precipitation will place tremendous strain on agricultural production, thus highlighting the importance of adaptation. ii Temperature and precipitation trends are summarized on a national basis, although it should be noted that there are no spatial trends across the country. 6 Figure 7: Climate Change Vulnerability Index, ECA Region The recent World Bank report “Adapting to Climate Change in Europe and Central Asia” developed a series of indices to assess the exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of countries in the ECA Region to climate change. These indices are based on a range of relevant parameters. The vulnerability index displayed in Figure 7 is a combination of the exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity indices. The vulnerability of Macedonia to climate change, based on this index, can be classified as medium compared to other countries in the region. The main underlying drivers of vulnerability identified were the high exposure to extreme climate events, moderate adaptive capacity and particular social and productive structures – which all increase the Source: The Source: World Bank, 2009. Adapting to Climate Change in Europe and Central sensitivity of Macedonia to climate Asia, Washington DC. 19 change . VII. Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and Water Resources Agricultural Risks and Opportunities Although both risks and opportunities for the agricultural sector in Macedonia may result from climate change, the downside 20 risks for the country outweigh any potential benefits . Macedonia is not positioned to take full advantage of the opportunities offered by those particular crops that could benefit from climate change - as demonstrated by the significant current yield gap between Macedonia and its neighbors - unless investments and structural changes are implemented which 19 address the country’s relative inefficiency, poor adaptive capacity and low productivity in the agricultural sector . Even though mean annual rainfall is only projected to decline moderately in the first half of the century, crop producers will face greater water deficits and a more arid and risky production environment due to increasing temperatures, longer dry 18 Table 3: The Most Vulnerable Agricultural Regions and Crops by periods and the potential for drought . Furthermore, 2100 changing climatic conditions may lead to problems Vulnerability Agro-Ecological Zone Crop associated with an array of agronomic issues, and Location including: ineffective soil drainage; damage to soil Mediterranean Zone: Grape structure, reducing land productivity; increased water Most Vulnerable scarcity for irrigation; and exposure to new pests and Povardarie diseases that will challenge existing plant and animal Mediterranean Zone: Tomato 20 Strumica genetics and management . Mediterranean Zone – Tomato On a positive note, the length of the growing period will Gevgelija: southern Vardar Highly increase across Macedonia, as the number of frost valley 21 Vulnerable days is projected to decrease greatly . This increased Mediterranean Zone – Winter Wheat growing period will provide opportunities for crop Skopje: Kumanovo valley distribution changes and longer-season crops, Mediterranean Zone – Ovce Winter Wheat especially for winter crops and mountainous areas. Pole However, as overall climate change is projected to Continental Zone: Alfalfa have a negative impact in almost all important Less Pelagonija valley agricultural regions in the country, there exists a Vulnerable Continental Zone: Apple continued need to develop and implement adaptation Prespa/Ohrid region options to increase the resilience of agricultural 18 Source: Adapted from Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning, 2008. systems in Macedonia . Second National Communication on Climate Change, The Republic of Macedonia, Skopje. The Second National Communication outlines the most vulnerable agricultural regions to climate change and their associated crops in 2100 ( see Table 3). Based on analysis by 7 national scientists, the most vulnerable region identified was the Povardarie region in the central part of the country, where iii,18 the most vulnerable crop is grapes . The other regions categorized as highly Table 4: Climate Change Risks and Opportunities for the Agricultural Sector vulnerable are in the central and eastern part in the Continental South Zone of Europe, including Macedonia Continental Detail of Magnitude Likelihood Priority of the country, from north to south across the South Zone Risk/Opportunity Mediterranean agro-ecological zone. The Crop area changes due to less vulnerable areas are in the mountainous decrease in optimal LOW HIGH MEDIUM western parts of the country, in the farming conditions 18 RISK Crop productivity decrease Continental agro-ecological zone . LOW HIGH MEDIUM Changes in temperature, precipitation and Increased risk of water scarcity will affect cropping conditions, agricultural pests, HIGH MEDIUM HIGH as well as the livestock sector in terms of diseases, and weeds animal health, nutrition, husbandry and Crop quality decrease 18 LOW HIGH MEDIUM livestock-related infrastructure . Changing Increased risk of drought climatic conditions will also adversely affect and water scarcity HIGH HIGH HIGH fodder and forage production and pasture Increased irrigation biomass, which could lead to volatile feed requirements HIGH HIGH HIGH prices, increased competition for grazing Soil erosion, salinization, 18 and desertification HIGH HIGH HIGH lands and increased water scarcity . Deterioration of conditions for livestock production MEDIUM LOW LOW A recent report undertaken on behalf of the Crop distribution changes European Commission evaluated climate HIGH leading to increase in MEDIUM HIGH OPPORTUNITY optimal farming conditions change risks and opportunities for Lower energy costs for agricultural production in nine zones across LOW glasshouses HIGH MEDIUM Europe. This was done within a risk management framework which looks at the Source: Iglesias, A. et al., 2007. Adaptation to Climate Change in the Agricultural Sector, AEA risks and opportunities for the agricultural Energy & Environment, Didcot. sector, the magnitude of the impact, the likelihood of the impact and the priority given for investment and action. The challenge for the Continental South zone (including Macedonia) is significant, with eight downside risks and only two upside opportunities identified in this report (see Table 4). Four of the risks identified are classified as high priority in terms of investment and action. From this assessment it is clear that a strong focus on the development and adoption of adaptation measures is required in order to help ensure that agricultural systems in Macedonia remain resilient in the face of a changing climate. Projected Crop Yield Impacts Local studies undertaken to project the impact of climate change on crop yields have been carried out over the last few years for Macedonia. Although projections vary significantly, there is general agreement that impacts will be negative after 2050 for a variety of summer and perennial crops across the majority of the country. However, the yield impact on winter crops like wheat is less certain, with both increasing and decreasing yields projected, depending on the assumptions of the underlying studies. Yield projections developed by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) for rain- fed wheat and maize yields for 2025 and 2050 are displayed in Figure 8. The projections clearly display the spatial variability of yield impacts across the country and the difference between crops for both time periods. For rain-fed wheat, the major growing areas in the continental and Mediterranean agro-ecological zones are projected to experience a moderate increase in yields of up to 10% for both 2025 and 2050. For rain-fed maize, moderate (0-10%) and severe yield declines (10-25%) are projected for the majority of Macedonia by 2025 and almost all of Macedonia is projected to experience severe maize yield declines of up to 25% by 2050, with some highly vulnerable areas projecting catastrophic yield declines of greater than 25%. As maize is a summer crop, these declining yield projections can also be used, to some extent, as a proxy indicator for other rain-fed summer crops, like vegetables. iii The most dominant crop in a vulnerable region is defined as the most vulnerable crop. 8 Figure 8: Projected Change in Rain-fed Maize and Wheat Yields in 2025 and 2050 Compared With Present 2025 Rain-fed Maize, % Change in Yields Compared with 2025 Rain-fed Wheat, % Change in Yields Compared with Present Present 2050 Rain-fed Maize, % Change in Yields Compared with 2050 Rain-fed Wheat, % Change in Yields Compared with Present Present Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/ and Fischer, G., et.al. 2007. Global Agro-ecological Zone Assessment for Agriculture. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria & FAO, Rome, Italy. Modeling was also undertaken in the Second National Communication to assess the impact of climate change on agriculture in Macedonia. These models, which analyze only scenarios wherein irrigation and adaption are not present, 9 indicate decreases in tomato and alfalfa yields in some regions of up to 78% and 62%, respectively, by 2050. The analysis also indicates that with no adaptation and no irrigation, productivity would decline considerably for all crops in the most vulnerable areas across the country. Potential Impacts on the Livestock Sector The Second National Communication of Macedonia outlines direct and indirect effects of climate change on the livestock sector. Unlike for field crops, analyzing the impact of climate change on the livestock sector in a quantitative manner is still in its infancy. In terms of direct effects, increased temperatures adversely impact livestock productivity, especially for 18 modern, highly productive animal breeds . Local breeds that are better adapted to local conditions are likely to exhibit 18 greater resilience to the more arid and warmer climate conditions projected for the future . Additionally, indirect effects of climate change on the livestock sector will result in a more challenging operating environment for producers. These indirect effects include reduced pasture and fodder production that could result in more volatile feed prices and an increased risk of 18 exposure to new pests and diseases, as the biological range of such threats expands into Macedonia . The latter has important implications for public safety and access to export markets. Projected Water Resources Impacts The latest local modeling for the projected impact of climate change on the water resources of Macedonia was undertaken in the Second National Communication, with the results displayed in Table 5. The primary catchment of Macedonia is the Vardar River, with both the Treska and Bregalnica rivers being sub-catchments of the Vardar system. For 2050, the most significant decline in water discharge of 16.1% is projected for the Bregalnica River, which drains eastern areas of Macedonia. The Treska River, which drains western areas of Macedonia, will be less exposed to changes in runoff and water discharge is consequently projected to decline marginally (3.4%). Overall the water discharge rate for the Vardar river catchment is projected to decline by 11.4% and 18.2% by 2050 and 2100, respectively. The significance of declining water availability and the importance of taking proactive water demand and supply adaptation measures is highlighted by the fact that Macedonia is already an inherently dry country with annual water resources per capita that are 70% below the 18 European average . These projected climate changes will result in a significant shift in water demand and Table 5: Projected Changes in the Mean Annual Discharge of Surface iv Water from Major Catchments, Compared to Discharges in the year 2000 increased competition for water across all Time Catchment sectors of Macedonia - including agriculture - in the coming decades. Presently, Horizon Vardar River Treska River Bregalnica River agriculture constitutes approximately 40% 2025 -7.6% -2.4% -10% of water demand and is the number one 2050 -11.4% -3.4% -16.1% 4 water consumer in the country . However, 2075 -14.4% -4.8% -19.3% from a historical standpoint, water demand 2100 -18.2% -7% -23.8% in the sector has declined significantly. Between the early 1990’s and 2004 the Source: Adapted from Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning, 2008. Second National Communication on Climate Change, The Republic of Macedonia, Skopje. total irrigated area of Macedonia dropped 4 by approximately 82% . This precipitous decline resulted from both structural and non-structural changes that occurred after 4 independence in 1991 . As the adverse factors are addressed, it is highly likely that demand for irrigation water in current or formerly irrigated areas will substantially increase. Pressure on water resources will grow further as some areas that did not 18 formerly have irrigation will require it under changing climate conditions . Non-climatic factors like development pathways, economic growth, improvements in living standards, and changes in land use patterns, technologies and infrastructure could significantly change water demand for Macedonia in the future. These 22 non-climatic factors could dwarf the impacts attributed to climate change alone, thus highlighting the importance of how these non-climatic factors can be influenced, positively or negatively, by policies, legislation and management at the 22 national level . In light of the potential impact of climate change on agriculture it is vital that a strong focus be placed on developing agricultural systems that are resilient and highly adaptable to a future of hotter, drier and more variable conditions to combat the adverse impact of climate change on agricultural productivity for a variety of crops while simultaneously taking iv Projected changes in the availability of surface water were modeled using the A2 emissions scenario 10 advantage of potential opportunities which may arise from a changing climate. These opportunities include increased length of growing seasons leading to new crops, increased productivity and changes to cropping patterns in some areas. VIII. Potential Adaptation Measures for the Agricultural Sector Macedonia’s Second Communication and other related documents propose a range of climate change adaptation options 20 for different sectors, including agriculture, livestock and water resources (see Table 6) . A number of the adaptation options discussed in these documents include technologies which are ready for immediate implementation and are proven to increase productivity in the present – a “win-win” situation. Unfortunately, many of these options and associated action plans have not been implemented because of constraints associated with a variety of economic and social factors. In order to effectively prioritize adaptation options and focus investment within an action planning framework, in-depth analysis of effectiveness, cost efficiency and feasibility of adaptation options is required. The importance of taking a proactive approach to adaptation in Macedonia is further illuminated by the significant synergistic benefits for agriculture and rural livelihoods via such an approach. With Macedonia’s low levels of current productivity, challenging climate and high reliance on rain-fed agriculture, the benefits of immediately implementing adaptation measures are clear - especially for vulnerable rural communities. These benefits are further increased when considering the enhanced resilience these communities will achieve in the face of increased agricultural vulnerability under climate change. Moreover, some of the measures for adaptation could also be beneficial in meeting EU standards and increasing competitiveness in EU markets. The funding of such adaptation investments could be enhanced greatly through accession to the EU, via eligibility for Pillar 2 measures under the Common Agricultural Policy. Table 6: Adaptation Options for the Agricultural and Forestry Sectors of Macedonia Sector Adaptation Option General Invest in research and extension services to enhance the capacity and delivery of information to the agriculture sector, with particular reference to climate change and the implementation of adaptation options Improve early warning and weather information systems, including frequent publication and distribution of agriculture-specific weather forecasts (e.g. short-term and seasonal forecasts, drought monitoring, etc...) Invest in the monitoring and detection of new pests and disease for the crop, livestock and forestry sectors through improvements in the sanitary and photosanitary regimes Introduction of a weather-based crop insurance program Rain-fed Development of new genetic varieties of crops with higher resilience to increased temperatures, lower Cropping precipitation and drought and potential for increased production via carbon fertilization Increase farming system water-use efficiency and reduce soil erosion via improved surface management techniques – including the adoption of minimum and zero tillage practices Development and adoption of improved agronomy and risk management techniques Land reclamation measures to increase the water holding capacity of soil via the application of manures, implementing measures that increase soil organic matter and the possible application of polymers Irrigation Implementation of Vardar River watershed management Rehabilitation of existing irrigation and delivery schemes to improve access and system water-use efficiency Modernization of on-farm distribution systems Introduction of new irrigation techniques and improvement of existing techniques to enhance field-level water use efficiency Livestock The adoption of improved animal breeds and grass/legume seed stock with increased resilience to projected climate conditions Improved farmhouse micro-climate management through the use of thermal insulating construction materials and modern ventilation systems to protect livestock from extreme conditions and increase productivity Improved pasture management by matching stocking rates to pasture production and integrating pasture improvement to increase feed value Source: Adapted from Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning, 2008. Second National Communication on Climate Change, The Republic of Macedonia, Skopje. Iglesias, A. et al., 2007. Adaptation to Climate Change in the Agricultural Sector, AEA Energy & Environment, Didcot. SIDA & GRM International, 2008. Scoping Mission on Strategizing Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in Macedonia – Macedonian Agricultural Advisory Support Programme. Rural communities have constantly adapted to changes in weather and seasons throughout history; however, the changes projected under climate change are expected to exceed the ability of farmers to autonomously adapt. Although there are many field-ready innovations that could rapidly and immediately improve the resilience of agricultural systems in Macedonia, the lack of knowledge, technologies and financial resources at the farm level is a considerable barrier to adoption. Additionally, significant investments will be required by the state and development partners to build the infrastructure, 11 knowledge and policy systems that could support and develop an array of adaptation options designed to increase the resilience of the farm sector into the future. Present inefficiencies and low productivity in Macedonia’s agricultur al sector exacerbate the downside risks of future climate 19 change projections are considerable and minimize upside opportunities . Significant investments will be required by the state and Macedonia’s development partners to build infrastructure, knowledge and policy systems that can support and develop an array of adaptation options which can increase the resilience of the agricultural sector to climate change. The focus for interested stakeholders should, therefore, be on reducing the adaptation deficit by increasing the efficiency, productivity and adaptive capacity of agriculture to the present climate. These measures should be taken in conjunction with the development of effective, long-term adaptation options for farming and livestock systems in each individual agro- ecological zone in the country. Given the inherent uncertainties of climatic developments, these adaptation options should be evaluated robustly under a range of different future climate scenarios and should be developed at both the national scale and the agro-ecological zone scale. This approach will ensure that regional and local communities have adaptation options that specifically address the climate change challenges that they face. IX. Impacts of Agriculture on Greenhouse Gas Emissions Macedonia is a signatory to the Copenhagen Accord and although a specific emissions reduction target was not specified, the government has submitted a list of voluntary emissions reduction measures - known as Nationally Appropriate Mitigation 23 Actions (NAMAs) - to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The NAMAs submitted 24 by the government covered a number of sectors, including transport, energy, industry, waste, forestry and agriculture . Agriculture plays an important role in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, with many of the practices that have benefits for both productivity improvement and adaptation also having synergistic mitigation benefits (i.e., “win-win-win”). Globally, agriculture contributes 14% of total greenhouse gas emissions. When combined with land use change and forestry, 25 agriculture accounts for 32.7% of total global emissions – second only to the energy sector . As of 2005, the agricultural sector accounted for approximately 7% of Macedonia’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (half of the global average), 26 behind both the energy sector (79% of total emissions) and the waste sector (10%) . The land-use change & forestry sector has generally been a net sink of GHGs in Macedonia since 1990, a result primarily of reforestation, improved forest management practices and reduced rates of illegal logging. However, in years of extensive forest fires, like 2000, the sector 18 becomes a net-emitter of GHGs . Agriculture and Land-Use Change Agriculture accounts for 32.4% and 66.4% of the emissions of the powerful 26,v GHGs methane and nitrous oxide from Macedonia, respectively . The major source of methane emissions from the agricultural sector is enteric fermentation of farm animals, with minor levels of emissions resulting from 18,vi manure management . Nitrous oxide emissions from the agricultural sector are predominantly a result of the inefficient application of nitric fertilizers and associated soil fertility management, although poor land and manure management practices, as well as the burning of agricultural 18 residues, also contribute . To mitigate agricultural emissions, the Second National Communication of Macedonia outlines a range of measures in various action plans for both the agriculture and forestry sectors. The strategies 18 outlined in the respective action plans that show promise include : Training of farmers in the application of tools, practices and technologies to mitigate GHGs; Support to farmers to implement agricultural technologies that also reduce GHGs; Development of legislation and systems for the application of good agricultural practices; Improvement of animal genetics to improve animal productivity; Improvement in the quality of feed rations for livestock to enhance feed digestibility; v GHG emissions can be split into three primary constituents: carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, with each constituent having a different heating potential. For example, methane and nitrous oxide have a 21 and 310 times greater heating potential than carbon dioxide, respectively. vi Enteric fermentation is fermentation that occurs in the digestive system of ruminant animals like cattle and sheep as a result of microbial activity. 12 Recovery of methane through improvements in livestock manure management, including installation of methane recovery and flaring systems at selected farms. X. The Policy Context The Second National Communication of Macedonia, published in 2008, is the primary policy document that assesses the impacts of projected future climate hazards and outlines adaptation options and responses. The document includes climate projections for Macedonia until 2100 and undertakes a preliminary vulnerability assessment of different sectors, including agriculture, biodiversity, forestry and water resources. This assessment includes an analysis of climate change impacts, broad recommendations and potential adaptation and mitigation options for each sector. In terms of agricultural, some basic economic analysis of the costs associated with reduced production of winter wheat, grapes and alfalfa was conducted to inform the climate change impact assessment. Furthermore, the most vulnerable agricultural regions and associated crops were identified. Although the Second National Communication identifies adaptation options and defines action plans and associated background documents, it is rather limited in terms of the economic analysis, evaluation and prioritization of potential adaptation options and associated action plans, especially at a higher resolution, agro-ecological zone scale. Implementation has also been lacking. It is therefore critical to carry out such detailed evaluation of adaptation options at a sub-national scale, and to involve high-level Macedonian Government officials – including the Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Water Economy and the Minister of Economy – to help promote the implementation of the required actions. It is also important to build awareness of climate change challenges and capacity to analyze and address them among MAFWE staff. National Plans, Strategies, Programs, and Analytical Studies Currently, Macedonia does not have a focused climate change and adaptation policy document. The mainstreaming of climate change into policy initiatives within the agricultural sector is still in its infancy. This situation must be rectified in order to ensure that investments and decision making for the agricultural sector and rural development are based on an understanding of potential future climate conditions, and not just historical conditions. Given the multi-sectoral nature of climate change, the issue has been addressed – to a minor extent – in several policy documents, including: The National Agriculture and Rural Development Strategy 2007-2013. This document outlines long-term support to guide the development of Macedonian agriculture and rural areas. The strategy focuses on six policy focal issues which are essential for the development of the sector. In summary, the focal issues are; 1) increase agricultural sector competitiveness; 2) improve structural linkages of the sector via more structured horizontal and vertical integration; 3) achieve food quality and safety through increased controls and integration of food safety systems; 4) achieve sustainable resource management; 5) Improve living conditions in rural areas though the improvement of infrastructure, diversification of agriculture production and creation of off-farm employment and income generating opportunities; and 6) reform the regulatory and institutional framework of the sector. In order to achieve the objectives of this strategy it is clear that climate change and adaptation, as key components, need to be analyzed, integrated and mainstreamed. The National Strategy for Sustainable Development. This document outlines the mission and objectives for the 27 development of Macedonia which are sustainable from the economic, social and environmental perspectives . This strategy covers a number of topics relevant to the agricultural sector and rural livelihoods, including climate change, natural resource management and agro-tourism. The strategy also supports multi-sectoral initiatives that increase on- farm economic efficiency and support rural development. The strategy specifically discusses opportunities for farmers to generate energy as a second income stream via the production of bio-fuels and bio-gas, although financing arrangements would need to be organized. In addition to these national plans and studies, the SIDA & GRM International: Scoping Mission on Strategizing Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in Macedonia 2008 was also produced. This report undertakes a preliminary assessment of how climate change adaptation and mitigation can be mainstreamed within the rural development strategies in Macedonia. This report proposes that a two-tiered approach be taken in order to achieve these goals: first, strengthen the capacity at the local and national levels to cope with existing climate risks (with an emphasis on heat waves and flood) while simultaneously adjusting existing development paths by aligning development policies with future anticipated changes in climate. Secondly, the scoping study outlines the increasingly challenging future the agricultural sector in Macedonia has as a result of climate change. A timeframe and planning framework to facilitate necessary technical and financial support to allow the sector to remain competitive and resilient in the face of future climate challenges is also included in this study. The framework focuses on developing coherent efforts to address climate change impacts on agriculture, improving capacity and resources of public and private advisory services to provide advice to farmers, and scaling down rural development by focusing on small-scale farmers at the municipality level. 13 XI. The Institutional Context Given the complexity and multi-disciplinary nature of climate change and adaptation, Macedonia has taken the important, proactive measure of mainstreaming climate change across the government via the 28 establishment of the National Climate Change Committee . This committee is chaired by the Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning and comprises 10 other members, including members from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Water Economy, the Hydrometeorological Institute, the Ministry of Finance and the Regional 28 Environmental Center NGO and others . The committee has a number of responsibilities, including overseeing national policies on climate change, ensuring these policies are consistent with national development priorities and objectives and ensuring that relevant stakeholders across Macedonia are kept informed and consulted on the development of climate change issues, policies and strategic management of all climate 28 related projects, programs and research activities . Although good initial steps have been taken through the establishment of this committee, there remains a need for greater funding and effectiveness of institutional arrangements with regard to climate change and adaptation. The primary institutions responsible for climate change issues in Macedonia include: The Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning (MEPP). This Ministry is the national environmental authority, as well as the Designated National Authority (DNA) on climate change and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) to the UNFCCC for Macedonia. The Ministry submitted the Second National Communication in 2008 and established the Climate 29 Change Project Office (CCPO) in 2000 . MEPP is responsible for the development and promotion of policies, strategies and action plans for protecting water, soil, flora, fauna, air and ozone from pollution. They are also responsible for 30 managing national parks and protected areas, as well as physical planning . The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Water Economy (MAFWE). This Ministry is responsible for formulating and promoting policies and strategies which relate to the development of agriculture, forestry and water supply across 30 Macedonia . The Ministry is also responsible for matters relating to the protection of animals and plants from pests and diseases, as well as water resource management and associated maintenance and improvement of water infrastructure for multiple uses. MAFWE has an important role in improving rural livelihoods through increasing farm competitiveness and access to markets, as well as reducing barriers for private investment in the sector. This Ministry is also responsible for matters relating to the protection of animals and plants from pests and diseases, water resource management and 30 associated maintenance and improvement of water infrastructure for multiple uses . Agricultural Research Institutes. These institutes play important roles in improving agricultural practices through the development of farming systems and practices that improve productivity and sustainability. The five major institutes involved in the development of agriculture are the 1) Institute of Agriculture; 2) Institute of Tobacco; 3) Institute of Livestock Breeding; 31 4) Institute of Southern Crops; and 5) Veterinary Institute . Additionally, experts from the faculty of Agricultural Sciences and Food from the Ss. Cyril and Methodius University of Skopje have also made a significant contribution to the agricultural aspects of climate change research in the country. For the Macedonian agricultural sector to develop and improve its competitiveness it is vital that the work done by these research institutes and faculty experts are closely linked with the on- ground realities and requirements of Macedonian farmers, and that results and practical measures are disseminated widely by extension services. The Farmers’ Federation of the Republic of Macedonian Farmers (FFRM). This federation is the leading voice for famers in the country. There are more than 200 farmer associations across Macedonia, most of which are based on one 31 particular commodity . The vast majority of these associations, however, are registered in name only and do not function. 14 XII. Ways Forward This Country Note is just the First Step: Upcoming Activities in the Development of the Macedonian Response to Climate Change for Agriculture In May 2010 an Awareness Raising and Consultation workshop on Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in Macedonian Agricultural Systems was held in Skopje, Macedonia. During this event, the Climate Change and Agriculture Country Note was disseminated to agricultural sector stakeholders and helped generate a groundswell of support and interest for further analytical work to reduce the vulnerability of the agricultural sector to climate change. A leading figure in this support has been Mr. Ljupco Dimovski, Macedonian Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Water Economy, who expressed his appreciation for the Country Note (prepared in collaboration with the World Bank) and indicated that climate change was already observable in Macedonia. Minister Dimovski acknowledged the impact climate change is having on Macedonian agriculture via higher temperatures, decreased precipitation and more frequent extreme events. These thoughts were echoed by workshop participants and other stakeholders, including the Hydrometeorological Institute, Agriculture Research Institute, University St. Cyril and Methodius - Faculty of Agriculture Sciences and Food, Federation of Farmers of the Republic of Macedonia (FFRM), National Extension Agency and farmers. Minister Dimovski also expressed his strong commitment and interest in enhancing the Government’s ability to mainstream and align climate adaptation into agricultural pol icies, programs and investments. Towards this goal, he agreed that MAFWE would fully support, and work jointly with, the World Bank to develop the Macedonian Response to Climate Change for Agriculture program. Broadly, this work involves rigorous analysis and economic modeling to assess both the impacts of climate change and potential adaptation measures for a range of farming, livestock and production systems. The analysis is currently being performed by expert staff from the international consulting firm Industrial Economics, Inc. (IEc), in close consultation with local experts across a range of organizations, under the direction of the World Bank. IEc is also delivering training and capacity building services to local experts and organizing sub-national consultation meetings with farmers, policymakers and researchers to raise awareness of the risks and opportunities posed by climate change on the agricultural sector. This work will culminate in the development of an Agriculture and Climate Change Impact Assessment & Menu of Adaptation Options that will highlight the physical, economic and social impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector and identify adaptation priorities for investments, capacity development and policy improvement. These options will be practical and operational, with a focus on “win-win-win” options that have benefits for adaptation, mitigation and the local economy. This analysis will be discussed at a high-level National Dissemination and Consensus Building Conference to be jointly hosted by MAFWE and the World Bank in January 2011. The conference will help build consensus on the way forward by identifying practical priorities for action. A Regional Knowledge Exchange Conference will follow, wherein Macedonian experts can share their experiences and results while simultaneously learning from experts from other countries participating in the Regional Program on Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in ECA Agricultural Systems. This forum will also explore opportunities for greater regional collaboration and assist with the establishment of regional communities of practice for experts working on agriculture and climate change issues. The Sustainable Development Department of the ECA Region at the World Bank is carrying out a regional, three- year program of analytical and advisory activities to better determine the potential impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector in four pilot countries: Albania, FYR Macedonia, Moldova and Uzbekistan. Through the Regional Program on Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in ECA Agricultural Systems, the World Bank is working with stakeholders to develop practical recommendations on actions these countries can take to increase the resiliency of their agricultural sectors to the impacts of climate change. The overall objective of the program is to enhance the ability of ECA countries to mainstream climate adaptation into agricultural policies, programs and investments. This will be achieved by raising awareness of the threat, analyzing potential impacts and adaptation responses and building capacity among country stakeholders with respect to climate change impact assessment and adaptation in the agricultural sector. 15 References 1 “Managing Uncertainty: Adapting to Climate Change in ECA Countries”, 2009, The Europe and Central Asia Region, The World Bank 2 The concept of the Country Notes is derived from the series of Country Notes developed for the LAC Region by S. Edmeades and W. Janssen et al., 2009, The World Bank 3 World Development Indicators, 2009, The World Bank 4 World Bank, 2006. FYR Macedonia Agriculture and EU Accession – Achieving FYR Macedonia’s Agricultural Potential, Washington DC 5 Statistical Office of the Republic of Macedonia, 2007. Census of Agriculture, 2007, Skopje 6 http://www.organic-europe.net/country_reports/macedonia/default.asp 7 www.faostat.fao.org 8 Lampietti, A. et al. 2009. The Changing Face of Rural Space – Agriculture and Rural Development in the Western Balkans. The World Bank, Washington DC 9 Sutton, W. et al. 2008. Integrating Environment into Agriculture and Forestry: Progress and Prospects in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. The World Bank, Washington DC 10 www.faostat.fao.org 11 Lampietti, A. et al. 2009. The Changing Face of Rural Space – Agriculture and Rural Development in the Western Balkans. The World Bank, Washington DC 12 Sutton, W. et al. 2008. Integrating Environment into Agriculture and Forestry: Progress and Prospects in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. The World Bank, Washington DC 13 http://www.fao.org/landandwater/agll/glasod/glasodmaps.jsp?country=MKD&search=Display+map+%21 14 SIDA & GRM International, 2008. Scoping Mission on Strategizing Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in Macedonia – Macedonian Agricultural Advisory Support Programme 15 http://www.nationsencyclopedia.com/Europe/Macedonia.html 16 Adapted from Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning, 2008. Second National Communication on Climate Change, The Republic of Macedonia, Skopje 17 www.climatewizard.org 18 Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning, 2008. Second National Communication on Climate Change, The Republic of Macedonia, Skopje 19 The World Bank, 2009. Adapting to Climate Change in Europe and Central Asia, Washington DC 20 Iglesias, A. et al., 2007, Adaptation to Climate Change in the Agricultural Sector, AEA Energy & Environment, Didcot 21 sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/ 22 World Bank, 2009. Water and Climate Change: Understanding the Risks and Making Climate-Smart Investment Decisions, Washington DC 23 http://unfccc.int/files/meetings/application/pdf/macedoniacphaccord.pdf 24 http://www.transport2012.org/bridging/ressources/files/1/586,NAMA-submissions_080210_final.pdf 25 http://cait.wri.org/cait.php?page=sectors&url=form&pOpts=open&pHints=shut&year=2000&co2=1&ch4=1&n2o=1&pfc=1& hfc=1&sf6=1&lucf=1&update=Update&c1=115&c2=185&c3=501&c4=527&c5=500&c6=&c7=&c8 26 http://cait.wri.org/ 27 http://www.nssd.com.mk/default1.aspx?ItemID=484 28 http://www.unfccc.org.mk/nccc.htm 29 http://europeandcis.undp.org/uploads/public/file/CarbonFinanceTrainingIstanbulJan08/Republic%20of%20Macedonia%20 and%20Climate%20Change.ppt 30 http://www.vlada.mk/?q=node/2779 31 FAO, 2007. Macedonian Agricultural Research and Extension System – Country Report For more information please visit our website at www.worldbank.org/eca/climateandagriculture 16