CITIES IN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA KAZAKHSTAN METHODOLOGY This country snapshot was produced as part of an Advisory Services and Analytics (ASA) work developed by the Urban, Social, Rural and Resilient Global Practice (GPSURR). The objective of this ASA is to analyze economic, spatial and demographic trends in the urban systems of countries in Europe and Central Asia. City-level population data was obtained from the National Statistics Institute. In the absence of city-level economic and spatial data over the period of analysis, nighttime light (NLS) satellite imaging was used to assess spatial and demographic trends in cities. In previous studies, NLS intensity has been found to be positively correlated with levels of economic activity as measured by GDP. Regional-level regressions of NLS and GDP were conducted to assess the validity of using NLS as a proxy for economic activity in Kazakhstan. The results suggest a significant and positive correlation between NLS intensity and GDP. In Kazakhstan, GDP to NLS elasticity was found to be 0.5 (an increase in light intensity of 1 percent is associated with a 0.5 percent increase in GDP) . This country snapshot presents its results at the city level. Due to measurement error, city-level economic and spatial results should be analyzed with caution; and when possible, additional city level data (i.e. satellite imagery, firm-level data, and etc.) should be consulted to corroborate results. This snapshot classified 72 settlements as cities in Kazakhstan. Demographic trends are available for all 72 cities but NLS analysis is only available for 53 cities; the remaining settlements did not produce enough light to be considered “urban” by the NLS threshold employed in this analysis. Similar assessments done for other countries suggest that NLS are able to capture most settlements with 30,000 inhabitants or more. For additional information on this ASA please contact Paula Restrepo Cadavid (prestrepocadavid@worldbank.org) or Sofia Zhukova (szhukova@worldbank.org) DEMOGRAPHICS BEFORE RECENTLY Kazakhstan 2.721 2.642 Fertility Rates ECA 1.951 1.732 Kazakhstan 68.331 70.452 Life Expectancy ECA 72.051 76.772 % of Population Kazakhstan 5.851 6.762 Above Age 65 ECA 11.591 15.162 Population Growth Kazakhstan -0.563 0.274 (Average Annual %) ECA 1.073 0.334 Urban Population Growth Kazakhstan -0.675 0.704 (Average Annual %) ECA 0.045 0.074 Kazakhstan 56.261 53.282 Urbanization Level (%) ECA 67.591 70.492 Kazakhstan -0.125 -0.324 Annual Urbanization Rate (%) ECA 0.125 0.244 Kazakhstan 107,9246 129,0477 City Average Population ECA 72,5156 75,1327 % Cities With Kazakhstan 28.766 30.137 More Than 100,000 ECA 12.976 20.027 % Cities With Kazakhstan 1.376 4.117 More Than 500,000 ECA 2.036 2.277 Kazakhstan 69.868 21.919 % Cities losing Population ECA 59.588 61.589 SPATIAL BEFORE RECENTLY Kazakhstan 2,6741 4,1602 Built Up Area (100,000km2) ECA 156,892 1 288,0462 Kazakhstan 163.621 244.182 Built Up m2 Per Capita ECA 186.181 320.492 Kazakhstan 56.0010 Built Up Area Growth (%) ECA 83.5910 Built Up m2 Per Kazakhstan 49.0010 Capita Growth (%) ECA 72.1310 Kazakhstan 7311 Number of Cities in Analysis ECA 2,71211 Number of Identified Cities Kazakhstan 4611 (NLS) ECA 3,88311 Number of Growing Cities Kazakhstan 3911 (NLS Area) ECA 1,64511 Number of Kazakhstan 211 Agglomerations(NLS) ECA 35211 This section uses data from the Global Human Settlement layer (GHSL) developed by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission. The GHSL extracts geospatial imagery to map and report on human settlements and urbanization. ECONOMICS BEFORE RECENTLY Kazakhstan -1.823 7.584 Average Annual GDP growth (%) ECA 2.0 3 1.534 Average Annual GDP per Kazakhstan -0.975 6.734 capital growth (%) ECA 1.755 1.194 Estimated contribution of Kazakhstan 70.7012 urban GVA to GDP growth (%) ECA — Kazakhstan 5.212 Unemployment Rate (%) ECA 9.602 Poverty rate Kazakhstan 2.902 (% at national poverty line) ECA — Kazakhstan 2.7613 Urban to rural GVA ratio ECA — Urban NLS Intensity Growth Kazakhstan -3.3514 11.2715 (%, annual average) ECA 2.2014 4.0315 % City Economies Growing Kazakhstan 18.8614 100.0015 (in NLS intensity) ECA 58.7414 81.0115 Kazakhstan 0.5016 GDP to NLS Elasticity ECA 0.3716 1 1990, 2 2013, 3 1989–2001, 4 2001–2013, 5 1990–2001, 6 1989, 7 2015, 8 1989–1999, 9 1999–2015, 10 1990–2013, 11 1996–2010,12 1998–2009, 13 2009, 14 1996–2000, 15 2000–2010, 16 2002–2010. 2 URBANIZATION TRENDS Over the past two decades Kazakhstan has experienced dramatic fluctuations in its population. Between 1989 and 1999 Kazakhstan averaged an annual population loss of –0.56 percent with a low of -1.75 percent between 1998 and 1999. On the contrary, between 2001 and 2014 population grew an average of 1.07 percent. Kazakhstan’s urbanization level is declining because the urban population is growing slower than the rural population. Between 2001 and 2014 the rural population grew by an annual average of 1.45 percent to reach 8.1 million; in the same period, the urban population only grew by an annual average of 0.75 percent to reach 9.2 million. As a result, between 2001 and 2014, Kazakhstan witnessed a 0.02 percent decrease in urbanization levels reaching a low of 53.00 percent in 2014. 3 20,000,000 0.57% Percent Change Urbanization Population Level 0 10,000,000 0.54% -3 0 0.52% 89 01 14 01 07 14 19 20 20 20 20 20 Population Growth, 1989–2014 Urbanization Trends, 1989–2014 Kazakhstan ECA (Developing Only) Rural Population Urban Population Urbanization Level ECA (All Income Levels) DEMOGRAPHICS OF THE URBAN SYSTEM 55 percent of Kazakhstan’s urban system is composed of towns but most of the urban population lives in mid-sized and major cities. In 2015, over 61 percent of Kazakhstan’s urban system comprised of mid-sized towns and large towns (populations of 10-20k and 20-50k, respectively). Despite the large number of mid-sized towns and large towns in Kazakhstan, over 78 percent of the population resides in cities with more than 100 thousand inhabitants. Between 1999 and 2015, 78 percent of Kazakhstan’s cities were growing. Some cities, such as Astana and Zacagansk have grown at impressive rates; however, contrary to what is observed in other countries in the region—only 1 of the fastest growing cities belongs to an agglomeration as defined by nighttime lights (see table below. Two agglomerations (Almaty composed of 4 cities) and Karaganda (composed of 3 cities) were found based on the nighttime lights analysis. DISTRIBUTION OF CITIES BY CITY SIZE: 2014 0% 50 % 0% 10 URBAN POPULATION DISTRIBUTION BY CITY SIZE: 2014 0% % 0% 50 10 Small Town Mid-Size Towns Large Towns Small Cities Mid Size Cities Major Cities (<10k) (10k–20k) (20k–50k) (50k–100k) (100k–500k) (>500k) 3 LARGEST CITIES BY POPULATION LARGEST URBAN AGGLOMERATIONS POPULATION % CHANGE AGGLOMERATION POPULATION % CHANGE CITY CITY 2015 1999–2015 MAIN CITY 2014 2002–2014 COUNT Almaty 1,548,354 36.94 Almaty 1,613,761 38.18 4 Astana 852,985 159.78 Karaganda 535,637 11.63 3 Shymkent 711,873 67.93 Karaganda 492,172 12.66 Aktobe 387,945 53.28 Taraz 356,965 8.13 Pavlodar 332,734 10.72 Ust’-Kamenogorsk 316,699 1.84 Semey 313,829 16.41 Ural’sk 230,785 18.40 Kostanay 226,425 1.61 Kyzylorda 219,976 39.78 Petropavlovsk 209,491 2.93 FASTEST GROWING CITIES POPULATION % CHANGE BELONGS TO AN CITY 2015 1999–2015 AGGLOMERATION AGGLOMERATION Začagansk 33,530 159.80 No N/A Astana 852,985 159.79 No N/A Zhanaozen 110,989 127.11 No N/A Kaskelen 65,407 75.73 Yes Almaty Shymkent 711,873 67.93 No N/A Turkestan 157,847 53.99 No N/A Aktobe 387,945 53.28 No N/A Saryag'ash 39,524 52.52 No N/A Kulsary 56,473 46.61 No N/A Boralday 27,188 43.10 No N/A Atyrau 204,013 42.48 No N/A Taldykorgan 138,218 41.04 No N/A Kyzylorda 219,976 39.79 No N/A 4 SPATIAL TRENDS OF THE URBAN SYSTEM Kazakhstan’s large internal landmass is not densely populated (as observed in the maps below). Furthermore, cities like Shymkent, Astana and Almaty, with over 500 thousand inhabitants, have urban footprints that are small relative to the size of the country. Spatially, most of the identified cities (see note below) are concentrated in the Northeast along the border shared with Russia and in the Southeast. Between 1996 and 2010, 88.64 percent of the identified cities grew in area. The mean area change for the identified cities, as determined by NLS, was 120.64 percent. Shieli, Turkestan and Aral underwent the highest changes in nighttime footprint growth and all experienced positive population growth between 1989 and 2015. 34.78 percent of cities grew in nighttime light footprints despite declining in population. These cities include Karaganda, Semey and Rudniy. Note: Nighttime lights are used to define urban footprints and follow their change over time. A urban threshold (above which a certain pixel is considered urban) is estimated for each country and used to delimit cities’ footprints. Agglomerations—as defined by NLS—are composed of cities whose NLS footprint merges. Single cities are cities who do not belong to any agglomeration. ECONOMICS OF THE URBAN SYSTEM Cities play a fundamental role in Kazakhstan’s economy and growth. Between 1998 and 2009 it is estimated that urban areas accounted for 70.70 percent of the economic growth witnessed in the country. Despite this, Kazakhstan’s economy witnessed a reduction in the share of urban to rural gross value added; which dropped from 4.29 percent in 1998 to 2.76 in 2009. Kazakhstan’s cities are growing in economic activity. Nighttime lights are used as a proxy for economic activity in this analysis (please refer to methodology on page 1). According to the nighttime lights threshold used in this analysis, only 18.86 percent of Kazakhstan’s cities were growing in nighttime light intensity between 1996 and 2000. However, between 2000 and 2010 this increased dramatically and 100 percent of cities in Kazakhstan have grown in nighttime light intensity. Note: Night-light intensity is being used as a proxy for economic activity at the city-level. For more information on the methodology please refer to page 1 of this snapshot. Gross value added (GVA) data by sector, as reported by the United Nations Statistics Bureau, is used to measure urban and rural production as a part of total production. The sectors were divided into those that are urban and those that are rural using the International Standard Industrial Classification of all economic activities (ISIC) , rev. 3. 5 CITY TYPOLOGIES Two city typologies were created based on nighttime lights (see below). These typologies are intended to shed light on economic and demographic trends in Kazakhstan’s urban system. Typology 1 divides cities based on whether they emit enough light to be classified as urban in 1996 and in 2010. In Kazakhstan, 63.01 percent of the cities emitted enough light to be considered urban in both periods (identified), 9.59 percent were only considered urban by night-lights standards in 2010 (emerging) and the remaining 27.40 percent were not considered urban in both periods (not identified). Typology 2 classifies identified cities into four types based on their nighttime light trends (thriving or dimming), which are used as a proxy for growing or declining levels of economic activity, and population trends (growing or declining). In Kazakhstan, 45.45 percent of the identified cities have a growing population and growing economic activity (type 1). Type 1 cities include Almaty, Shymkent, Astana and Aktobe. 11.36 percent of identified cities had a declining population and declining economic activity (type 2). Type 2 cities include Stepnogorsk and Atbasar. 9.09 percent of identified cities have a growing population and declining economic activity (type 3). Type 3 cities include Kandyagash and Zhanaozen. 34.09 percent of the identified cities have a shrinking population and growing economic activity (type 4). Type 4 cities include Karaganda, Semey and Petropavlovsk. Note: Night-lights are used to define urban footprints and follow their change over time. A urban threshold (above which a certain pixel is considered urban) is estimated for each country and used to delimit cities’ footprints. Agglomerations as defined by NLS are composed of cities whose NLS footprint merges. Single cities are cities who do not belong to any agglomeration. TYPOLOGY 1 TYPOLOGY 1 DESCRIPTION NUMBER PERCENTAGE Identified City emits enough light in both 1996 & 2010 46 63.01 Emerging City emits enough light in only 2010 7 9.59 Submerging City emits enough light only in 1996 0 0.00 Non-Identified City does not emit enough light in both 1996 & 2010 20 27.40 TYPOLOGY 2 TYPOLOGY 2 DESCRIPTION NUMBER PERCENTAGE Type 1 (Blue) Growing population & growing economic activity (thriving core) 20 45.45 Type 2 (Green) Declining population & declining economic activity (dimming core) 5 11.36 Type 3 (Black) Growing population & declining economic activity (thriving core) 4 9.09 Type 4 (Red) Declining population & growing economic activity (dimming core) 15 34.09 TYPE 1: TYPE 2: TYPE 3: TYPE 4: Growing Population Declining Population Growing Population Declining Population & Growing & Declining & Declining & Growing Economic Activity Economic Activity Economic Activity Economic Activity Population 2014 279.93 (388.44) 30.50 (10.50) 65.54 (32.81) 110.24 (142.57) (000s) Average Annual Population Growth 1.42 (1.93) -1.27 (0.50) 2.22 (2.14) -0.81 (0.56) (% 2002-2014) Total NLS Value in 33.46 (53.30) 2.09 (1.04) 5.29 (2.99) 18.33 (28.37) 2010 (000s) NLS per Capita 0.11 (0.08) 0.08 (0.07) 0.08 (0.04) 0.13 (0.07) (2010) NLS Growth 118.24 (104.94) 3.90 (20.05) 8.07 (10.37) 65.02 (52.61) (% 2000–2010) Examples of Cities Karaganda, Semey, Astana, Almaty Stepnogorsk, Atbasar Kandyagash, Zhanaozen Petropavlovsk 6 A spatial component that is added to the Typology 2 classification provides insight into the interaction between spatial, economic and demographic trends across Kazakhstan’s urban system. Type 1 cities, which are growing in population and in economic activity, are all increasing in area. Astana, for example, witnessed a 240.84 percent change in area between 1996 and 2010. Type 4 cities, which are growing in economic activity but declining in population, are also increasing in area albeit at rates slower than type 1 cities. The area growth faced by type 4 cities, which are declining in population, like Karaganda and Jezkazgan is indicative of urban sprawl. POPULATION AND ECONOMIC DYNAMICS* SPATIAL AND ECONOMIC DYNAMICS* KAZAKHSTAN KAZAKHSTAN Annual Percentage Population Growth 02 300 Percentage Area Growth 0 0 -02 -300 -300 0 300 -300 0 300 Annual Percentage NLS Growth in Core Percentage NLS Growth in Core * Econ growth is NLS growth (1996–2010); * Area growth is NLS footprint growth 1996–2010); Population growth is annual avg (1989–2015). Econ growth is NLS growth (1996–2010). POPULATION AND SPATIAL DYNAMICS* KAZAKHSTAN Annual Percentage Population Growth 02 0 -02 -300 0 300 Annual Percentage Area Growth * Area growth is NLS footprint growth (1996–2010); Population growth is annual average growth (1989–2015). Type 1: Growing population, Type 2: Declining population, growing economic activity declining economic activity Type 3: Growing population, Type 4: Declining population, declining economic activity growing economic activity 7 CONCLUSIONS Population dynamics in Kazakhstan changed dramatically between the first and the second decade of transition. While total population and urban population declined between 1990 and 2000, this trend was inversed between 2001 and 2013. Changing trends are also visible at the city level; while almost 70 percent of the cities were losing population over the first decade of transition, only 22 percent lost population over the second decade of transition. Urbanization dynamics are similar to the ones observed in other Central Asian countries. The country is de-urbanizing in the strict sense of the term—as urban areas are growing at a lower rate than rural areas. Most cities in Kazakhstan are growing and many are growing at very high-rates. Population growth in Kazakhstan is highest in cities with more than 500 thousand inhabitants. These cities, which grew an average of 108.65 percent in population between 1989 and 2015 are Shymkent, Almaty, and Akmola. Cities with population between 50 and 100 thousand inhabitants are also concentrated an important share of the country’s urban population growth. Economically, cities appear to play an important role but their contribution to the economy has been diminishing. Estimates suggest that urban areas are more productive that rural areas but that the share of urban to rural GVA declined considerably between 1998 and 2009. This might be linked to the increased dependency of the country on natural resources. Nevertheless nighttime lights analysis at the city-level show that there has been an improvement in economic performance—proxied by light intensity—when comparing the first and the second decade of transition. Compared to other countries in the region, Kazakhstan has a unique urban profile: a significant number of cities are growing in economic activity and in population while a smaller subset continues to grow in economic activity despite population losses. Across all identified cities only 20 percent appear to be declining in economic activity (see Typology 2 classification above). While this snapshot does not intend to study the underlying dynamics behind observed trends nor prescribe specific interventions; the analysis does have important policy implications. The urban sector in Kazakhstan plays an important role in the diversification of the country’s economy. However, the country needs to further support its cities to make sure that they have the right tools to reach their full economic potential. To achieve increased productivity in urban centers, the right mix of good governance, a beneficial business climate, and an efficient provision of public goods, usually in the form of public services and infrastructure, is necessary so that agglomeration economies are fostered and congestion costs reduced. This is of particular importance in fast growing urban areas.