DISCUSSION PAPER 71520 DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT IN A CHANGING CLIMATE May 2005 This discussion paper has been reprinted for presentation at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, SB22 Meeting, Bonn 2005). The paper was originally prepared as a contribution to the World Conference on Disaster Reduction (WCDR, Kobe 2005) by Frank Sperling and Francisco Szekely on behalf of the Vulnerability and Adaptation Resource Group (VARG). VARG is an informal network of bi- and multilateral agencies created for sharing information on the impacts of climate change on development processes and possible remedial measures. The messages of this discussion paper were presented on behalf of the Vulnerability and Adaptation Resource Group (VARG) at the World Conference on Disaster Reduction (WCDR) in Kobe, Japan, January 18-22, 2005 to support the dialogue on the inter-linkages and differences between disaster risk management and climate change adaptation efforts. This discussion paper has been reprinted for further distribution with an Addendum outlining the outcomes of WCDR in relation to climate change. The paper presented is an informal discussion document. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent official opinions of their affiliated organizations, nor of the voluntary reviewers and their affiliated organizations or institutions. Suggested citation: F. Sperling and F. Szekely (2005). Disaster Risk Management in a Changing Climate. Discussion Paper prepared for the World Conference on Distaster Reduction on behalf of the Vulnerability and Adaptation Resource Group (VARG). Reprint with Addendum on Conference outcomes. Washington, D.C. Please direct correspondence to: Frank Sperling, VARG Secretariat, fsperling@worldbank.org DISCUSSION PAPER DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT IN A CHANGING CLIMATE May 2005 With an Addendum — The World Conference on Disaster Reduction, Outcomes Relevant to Climate Change Initiatives ACKNOWLEDGMENTS T he topic of the paper and an initial draft was discussed at the VARG meeting in Ar- gentina, December 6, 2004. The input from VARG regional office Europe), Maryam Golnaraghi (WMO), Margaret Arnold and Ian Noble (World Bank). members and other individuals received at the In general, we hope that the paper has cap- meeting and in the follow-up consultations illus- tured many of the comments. Given the breadth trated the complexity of the issue and was of great of the issue it is however impossible to cover ev- help in writing the document. ery issue. The present draft discussion paper re- The authors are grateful for constructive flects a compendium of issues the authors feed-back received during the writing process thought were important. It is hoped that the mes- from Subbiah (ADPC), Cassandra Rogers (CDB), sages conveyed will spark a constructive discus- Elizabeth Harvey (CIDA), Jos Wheatley, Jessica sion at the World Conference on Disaster Reduc- Troni (DFID), Danielle Hirsch (on behalf of DGIS), tion and beyond on how the international Bonizella Biagini (GEF), Elizabeth Mausolf, Holg- community can further strengthen a comprehen- er Liptow (GTZ) and Roda Verheyen (on behalf sive risk management approach, which captures of GTZ), Maria Lamin (EC), Maxx Dilley (IRI), disaster risk, climate change and other environ- Marcus Moench (ISET), Jan Vermeiren and Mar- mental hazards and thereby supports sustainable co Alcaraz (OAS) Shardul Agrawala (OECD), development efforts. Madeleen Helmer (Red Cross Red Crescent Cli- The financial support for VARG and this mate Centre), Bo Lim and Kamal Kishore initiative provided by DFID, DGIS (through (UNDP), Liza Leclerc (UNEP), Reid Basher and ETC), the BMZ and the World Bank is greatly John Harding (UN/ISDR), Bettina Menne (WHO appreciated. 3 EXECUTIVE S UMMARY S trategic coordination including the ex- change of information, methodologies and tools between experts and institutions working science can help to inform choices and reduce decision making risk. When dealing with climate change risks it on disaster risk management, climate change and is important to recognize that the starting point development is essential for diminishing the im- for adaptation measures is the existing vulnera- pacts of natural disasters and improving the bility to climate variability and extremes. Improv- sustainability of development processes. ing the capacity of communities, governments or Important synergies exist between the pol- regions to deal with current climate vulnerabili- icy frameworks and practical methodologies for ties is likely improving also their capacity to deal disaster risk management and the course recent with future climatic changes, in particular if such scientific advances suggest will be required for measures take a dynamic approach and conse- quently can be adjusted to further changes in adaptation to climate change. risks and vulnerabilities. Many of the impacts associated with cli- To promote an integrated approach to di- mate change exacerbate or alter existing threats saster risk management it is necessary to: (such as those associated with droughts, floods Identify and appreciate the information, ex- and extreme events), and adaptation measures perience and methodologies that disaster can benefit from the practical experience in di- risk, climate change and development ex- saster management. However, some effects of cli- perts can provide and design a system to mate change, such as global changes in sea lev- share such experience and knowledge. els, are new within recent human history. As a Overcome some institutional barriers (struc- result little experience is available to tackle such tural, managerial, information, financial) to impacts. For these reasons, coordinated action to facilitate the integration of experience, infor- address both existing and new challenges be- mation and knowledge of development, cli- comes urgent. mate change and disaster risk management While uncertainty remains regarding the experts. precise impacts of climate change, this does not The World Conference on Disaster Reduc- justify inaction. Because climate projections are tion in Kobe, January 18-22, 2005, represents a scenario based and the climate system is com- unique opportunity to call for a comprehensive plex, uncertainties will always remain. This is also risk management approach, which addresses the case with many economic and other projec- risks associated with natural hazards and climate tions that play a central role in political decisions change and thereby helps to promote the sustain- and policy formulation. The advances in climate ability of development processes. 5 I NTRODUCTION 1 W hether it is heat waves in Europe, hurricanes in the Caribbean, droughts in Africa, or flooding in Asia, weather-related di- As we are aware of the problem today, there is a real opportunity to reduce current and fu- ture vulnerabilities to climate risks by building sasters are exerting an increasing toll on devel- on and expanding existing disaster risk manage- oping and developed countries, destroying lives ment efforts. and livelihoods and hampering development The paper discusses inter-linkages and dif- processes. The World Conference on Disaster ferences between disaster risk management and Reduction is a testimony that international co- adaptation to climate change, and outlines op- operation is needed to prevent natural hazards portunities and barriers for collaboration. We from translating into disasters. hope that the outcomes of World Conference of The challenges will be extended further Disaster Reduction (WCDR) will lead to an im- through changes in climate. This will change pro- proved coordination of policies and measures files of natural hazards, alter underlying environ- concerned with disaster risk management and mental risks and introduce new threats. adaptation to climate change. 7 C LIMATE C HANGE IMPACTS ON N ATURAL 2 H AZARDS AND U NDERLYING RISK F ACTORS C limate change is a reality, not a distant possibility in the future. The Intergov- ernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the parison to 1990 levels. This magnitude of change is likely to be unprecedented for at least the last 1000 years (IPCC a). This average increase in international authority on the science of climate temperature is associated with local and re- change, concluded in its most recent report that gional changes in climatic conditions. climate change is already happening. Not only Climate change has implications for disas- has an increase in the global average tempera- ter risk management as it impacts on the expo- ture by 0.6°C over the last century been observed, sure to hydro-meteorological hazards (e.g. which largely can be linked to increases of green- storms, floods and droughts), and also modulates house gas concentrations in the atmosphere due underlying risk factors, which influence the vul- to human activities, but also a growing number nerability to environmental hazards and there- of physical and biological responses, such as the fore the probability of a disaster occurring. In melting of glaciers in most regions of the world general, the following changes should be recog- and changes in the behavior and distribution of nized in their implications for managing disas- species, are being detected (IPCC 2001 a, b). The ters: ten warmest years on record have all occurred since 1990, including every year since 1997 Changes in the magnitude and frequency (WMO 2004). of climatic extremes Projections of future changes suggest that Disasters are associated with extreme events. Cli- the global average temperature will increase by mate change directly interacts with the exposure 1.4 to 5.8°C by the end of the 21st century in com- to climatic extremes. For example, climate change 8 D ISASTER R ISK MANAGEMENT IN A CHANGING CLIMATE will lead to higher maximum temperatures and the intensity and frequency of weather related heat waves over almost all land areas (IPCC (hydro-meteorological) hazards has increased in 2001). That heat waves can have devastating im- many regions, while the number of geological pacts even in developed countries became glar- hazards (e.g. earthquakes, volcano eruptions) ingly clear in 2003, when a heat wave—with reflects long time-scale variations, but not trends temperatures rising above 40°C (WMO 2004)— (UN/ISDR, 2004). was linked to more than 35,000 excess deaths in As climate change alters the magnitude and France, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, frequency of extreme events it is important to Germany and the United Kingdom (Koppe et al. recognize that coping and response mechanisms 2004). Recent research suggests that past human and economic planning for disasters, based on induced greenhouse gas emissions have at least past vulnerabilities, may no longer suffice for doubled the risk of this heat wave occurring (Stott what is to come. Indeed, in many countries, these et al. 2004). existing mechanisms are already insufficient of In addition, climate change is expected to the current level of vulnerability. lead to more intense precipitation events for many areas causing a higher probability of floods, Changes in average climatic conditions landslides, avalanches and soil erosion with as- and climate variability sociated damages (IPCC 2001). Conversely, for Beyond affecting the climatic extremes, climate most mid-latitude continental interiors increased change also alters average climatic conditions and summer drying is likely with respective conse- climate variability. While more subtle in nature quences for the risk of droughts. Peak wind in- and not necessarily a hazard in itself, these tensity of cyclones, hurricanes and typhoons is changes affect underlying risk factors and thereby likely to intensify in some areas. While it is not the ability to cope with and recover from climate fully established, it is also possible that the dis- extreme events and other natural hazards, com- tribution of tropical cyclones may change (IPCC pound their impact. 2001). Since the mid seventies, El Niño events For example, where a shift from a produc- have become more frequent in comparison to La tive to a marginal agricultural area occurs, it Niña episodes. Climate change is likely to inten- seems obvious that the impact of a drought or a sify droughts and floods associated with El Niño flood on livelihoods represents a more difficult events. challenge for climate sensitive livelihoods such According to an analysis of Munich Re as farming and cattle ranching, if remedial mea- (2000), the number of great natural catastrophes sures are not taken. Rural livelihoods and food per decade increased fourfold and the number security in Africa are particularly threatened by of economic losses 14 times, if the period 1990- climate change as shown in a comprehensive as- 1999 was compared to 1950-1959. The increase in sessment by IIASA (Fischer et al. 2001). disasters is due to many factors, including im- Changing baselines of environmental con- proved information and reporting, uncontrolled ditions in which disasters occur has to be recog- urbanization in hazard prone areas and environ- nized in its implications for disaster risk man- mental degradation. It is, however, striking that agement planning efforts. A broad overview of C LIMATE CHANGE I MPACTS ON NATURAL HAZARDS AND U NDERLYING RISK FACTORS NDERLYING 9 climatic change impacts at the global and regional been considerable in many regions, exposing ar- level is given in the Appendix. eas and valleys to the risk of GLOFs. As the mag- nitude of the threat is new, it may therefore not Emerging threats have been reflected in earlier settlement policies. While most impacts of climate change are exac- Other occurrences are related to climate erbations or alterations of existing threats, some induced spatial and temporal changes in impacts. impacts induced by global warming may be new This includes for example, the spread of climate to a region in recent history and, consequently, sensitive diseases into regions where these dis- there exists no experience in dealing with such eases did not occur before (McMichael 2003), the impacts. appearance of invasive species in areas where Many such events may be threshold events. they previously did not exist as well as the dis- For example coral bleaching occurs when water appearance of species from areas that are no long- temperatures exceed a threshold and coral expel er suitable to them (IPCC 2001). symbiotic algae. Where the warming is sustained Many of such changes can be anticipated coral reefs may not recover and die. Such chang- and planned for through a combination of scien- es in combination with sea level rise are likely to tific research, monitoring and foresight planning, increase the vulnerability of island nations, where if the thresholds are known. However, climate coral reefs sustain fisheries and provide protec- change may also cause unforeseen events – sur- tion from storm surges. Understanding such prises – with negative consequences. The climate threshold events may help to maintain the health system is a complex one with multiple feed-back of ecosystems by reducing compounding im- loops between the ocean, atmosphere and terres- pacts. The globally observed retreat of glaciers is trial ecosystems. The more rapidly the climate another example, where climate change may lead system is forced by increasing levels in green- to new threat levels. The accumulation of water house gases, the higher the potential for surpris- in natural dams as a result of glacial melt may es. Therefore, reducing greenhouse gas emissions lead to glacial lake outburst floods (so-called and other impacts on the environment represents GLOFs) with destructive down-stream effects. As also a precautionary measure, which in the long- temperature changes increase with altitude in the term will reduce the risk of surprises with po- lower troposphere the melting of glaciers has tential adverse consequences. 10 D ISASTER R ISK MANAGEMENT IN A CHANGING CLIMATE T HE E VOLUTION OF D ISASTER R ISK M ANAGEMENT 3 G iven the increasing concern about the impacts of disasters, the UN General As- sembly declared 1990–99 the International De- probability of a disaster occurring. In an ideal world preventive measures would make disas- ter relief efforts obsolete, but realistically they cade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR). complement relief efforts, minimizing disaster The IDNDR organized the World Conference on impacts and therefore the human and economic Natural Disaster Reduction in Yokohama in 1994. cost of disasters. This Conference conceived the Yokohama Strat- Disaster risk management tries to address egy and Plan of Action for a Safer World hazard risks as an integral part of development. (Yokohama strategy) which stressed that every Consequently, it is less events and more process country has the primary responsibility to protect focused. It is based on a continuous assessment its people, infrastructure and national, social and of vulnerabilities and risks and involves many economic and ecological assets from the impact actors and stakeholders, such as governments, of natural disasters. Additionally, the strategy technical experts and local communities (UN- emphasized the urgent need to move from a ISDR 2004). mainly reactive approach to disaster mitigation to a new paradigm based on a more comprehen- Multiple-hazards sive approach that includes preventive measures, Ideally disaster risk management would take a mainly aimed at reducing the likelihood that a comprehensive multi-hazard focus, which in- natural hazard translates into a disaster cludes simultaneous consideration of the various Disaster risk management implies address- types of geological and/or hydro-meteorologi- ing the underlying social, economic and environ- cal hazards to which a particular country or re- mental vulnerabilities and thereby reduce the gion is exposed. For example, it is known that 11 coastal regions of Ecuador and northern Peru are developed the a Disaster Risk Index (DRI), which particularly prone to above normal rainfall and is built on UNDP’s experience with the Human floods during El Nino events. In addition, vari- Development Index incorporating data from EM- ous areas of these countries are also prone to DAT, a global data base on natural disasters main- earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, droughts, cold tained by the Center for Research on the Epide- spells, landslides and/or avalanches. miology of Disasters in Brussels (see On the country level it would be ideal to www.em-dat.net). Furthermore, reinsurance take into account the probabilistic occurrence of companies such as Munich Re and Swiss Re col- all these events in economic planning. Preven- lect considerable information on disasters. These tive measures within a specific region, of course, country level data sets are complemented by lo- should focus on the local hazards and address cal knowledge of hazard prone areas. known vulnerabilities. Disaster prevention and contingency plans Accounting for changing exposures and can build on past experiences and scientific vulnerabilities knowledge of exposure to certain type of hazards A pro-active disaster risk management approach and their frequency of occurrence. For example, needs to recognize the interaction of globaliza- geological hazards are often localized (e.g., vol- tion processes, population and demographic canic eruptions and earthquakes along zones of trends, economic development and trade pat- tectonic activity) and follow large-scale time vari- terns, urbanization and other factors, which im- ations. Other hazards are associated with events pact on the exposure and vulnerability to of semi-periodic occurrence, e.g., El Niño events hazards. In this context it is also important to occur every 2–7 years. The typical paths and sea- address local and global environmental issues sons of hurricanes are well known. Such knowl- that change risk patterns and increase vulnerabili- edge of exposure and vulnerabilities can be used ties to various disaster risks, if no appropriate to evaluate the risk of a disaster occurring with- measures are taken. in a specific region and take remedial measures, As discussed earlier, climate change will such as the implementation of forecasting and alter the disaster risk associated with hydrologi- early warning systems, education initiatives, pro- cal hazards by affecting climatic extremes as well moting of appropriate infrastructure and natu- as modulating underlying risk factors through ral resource management. changes in average climatic conditions and cli- A number of databases and studies exist or mate variability. The following sections contrast are under development for disaster risk assess- the evolution of disaster risk management with ment. For example the World Bank, together with developing understanding of adaptation to cli- Columbia University, is publishing a global anal- mate change, discuss synergies and difference of ysis on disaster hotspots (see World Bank 2005). these two concepts and the focus on the oppor- This analysis aims at bringing together the un- tunities and barriers to develop an integrated derstanding of physical exposure and socio-eco- approach that reduces the vulnerability to cur- nomic vulnerabilities. Previously, UNDP (2004) rent and future environmental hazards. 12 D ISASTER R ISK MANAGEMENT IN A CHANGING CLIMATE ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE — M OVING FROM SCIENTIFIC D EBATE TO P OLICIES AND M EASURES 4 P olicy responses concerned with disaster risk management and adaptation to climate change have developed along different tracks. approaches have emerged: Mitigation and Adap- tation, which have become binding obligations to all Parties of the UNFCCC (Art.4). Disaster risk management originated from Mitigation encompasses all efforts focused humanitarian assistance efforts and the accumu- on reducing the concentration of greenhouse gas- lated experiences of exposure to disasters and in- es in the atmosphere. It therefore addresses the creasingly incorporated scientific advances. Di- cause of climate change and influences the rate saster management grew from localized, specific and magnitude of future climatic changes. The response measures to include also broader pre- emphasis on future changes is important. Due to ventive measures, which aimed to address the the thermal inertia in the ocean-atmosphere sys- various underlying environmental and socioeco- tem, there is a delay in the warming associated nomic aspects of vulnerability. Conversely, the with increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases. response to climate change has been more of a This means that the warming observed at present top-down process as it became an international is due to past greenhouse gas emissions and the issue of global importance, through advances in warming associated with the current increase in scientific research leading to international policy greenhouse gases will be observed in the future. responses through the United Nations Frame- Therefore we are already committed to a certain work Convention on Climate Change (UNFC- degree of climate change. CC). Adaptation, which is here generally defined In order to manage the ecological and eco- as the adjustment in natural or human systems nomic risks associated with climate change two to a new or changing environment due to effects 13 of climate change (see IPCC 2001 for a more de- jected climatic changes and help to determine tailed definition and discussion of climate change whether observed changes are within the normal adaptation), include all measures aimed at reduc- variability of the climate in a region. In addition, ing the negative impacts resulting from climate analog methods are also being used to compare change as well as the identification of new op- projected changes with past climatic changes. portunities and benefits associated to new cli- As outlined by Mirza (2003) in greater de- mates. Adaptation is the complementary part to tail, the initial framework on adaptation was par- climate change mitigation. In dealing with cli- ticularly concerned with elucidating the region- mate change, mitigation and adaptation are in- al climate change regions are faced with. For terdependent measures. Mitigation addresses the example the IPCC released guidelines for adap- physical exposure, while adaptation focuses on tation studies, which focused on identifying the the physical and socioeconomic vulnerability possible impacts (Carter et al. 1994). associated with a given exposure, i.e. rate and In recent years there has been a growing magnitude to climate change. focus on considering biophysical impacts in the context of socio-economic trends and vulnerabil- Conceptual Frameworks and ities. The Adaptation Policy Framework (APF) de- Methodologies for Adaptation veloped by UNDP outlines concrete steps aimed The challenge in the context of adaptation is to at developing concrete measures. Interestingly, move from the understanding that climate the APF encompasses current climate risks and change is occurring to concrete measures that future climate change. Other methodologies ex- reduce existing vulnerabilities of human and ist. For example, the Caribbean Risk Management natural systems. Guidelines for Climate Change Decision Making can The understanding of climate change effects be applied in other regions (see Adapting to Cli- is driven by scientific advances, which often con- mate Change in the Caribbean – ACCC – Project, stitute the starting point for practical measures. 2003). In addition, the UNFCCC has established In order to understand likely changes of the cli- a set of guidelines for communicating urgent mate system caused by increases in greenhouse needs of the least developed countries to adapt gas concentrations, the evaluation of climate im- to climate change (UNFCCC, 2002) providing a pacts is dependent on simulations, which model set of criteria for selecting priority areas of ac- climatic conditions according to a given scenario tion. of future atmospheric greenhouse gas concentra- Within the institutional level there is also a tions. Such models and the validity of their out- growing emphasis to systematically assess the puts of future climate change are tested by the risk development processes are exposed to ability of the model to reproduce general climate through climate change and how such risks can characteristics under current conditions. Further- be reduced through appropriate planning. The more, trends in physical and biological systems World Bank is developing a screening tool to are observed to detect current changes. Data on identify climate sensitive projects and vulnera- past and present climatic conditions provide in- bilities to climate change. Similar initiatives are dications on the relative magnitude of the pro- on the way by USAID, CIDA, WHO and others. 14 D ISASTER R ISK MANAGEMENT IN A CHANGING CLIMATE The Funding Framework ing mechanism for these activities (see The financing framework for adaptation is largely www.unfccc.int; decisions 5/CP.7 and 6/CP.7). an outcome of the UNFCCC process. In the so- The GEF has also allocated 50 million USD in its called Marrakech Accords an agreement on vari- business plan for 2005-2007 to strengthen the ous funds was reached that support adaptation learning effort on how to best address adapta- measures. These funds include the Least Devel- tion issues with the aim to provide future guid- oped Countries (LDC) Fund, the Special Climate ance for adaptation related efforts in the new Change (SCC) Fund and the Adaptation Fund. The funds. In addition various agencies have started Global Environmental Facility (GEF) is the fund- additional funding programs for adaptation. FUNDING FOR ADAPTATION LDC Fund: The “Least Developed Countries� Fund will contribute to the enhancement of adaptive capacity to address the adverse effects of climate change, including, as appropriate, in the context of national strategies for sustainable development.� Emphasis is currently placed on providing LDCs with equitable access to fund- ing for implementation of National Adaptation Plans of Action (NAPAs). In this context GEF is requested to develop criteria for supporting activities arising out of the NAPAs on “an agreed full-cost basis, taking into account of the level of funds available�. SCCF: The “Special Climate Change� Fund supports the implementation of the Convention, contributes to the achievement of the World Summit on Sustainable Development and the Millennium Development Goals by addressing the integration of climate change considerations into development activities.� Adaptation Fund: The Adaptation Fund was established under the Marrakech Accords and is linked to the Kyoto Protocol. The fund should finance concrete adaptation projects and programs in developing countries, which are also Parties to the Protocol. All funds are open to bilateral and multilateral contributions ($15M has been pledged for the LDC fund) and in addition the Adaptation Fund will receive a share of the emission reduction credits arising from CDM activities (excluding small scale projects). This is estimated to amount to only $3M to $5M per year over the first commit- ment period of the Kyoto Protocol. GEF Trust Fund: $ 50M have been allocated on the Strategic Priority “Piloting an Operational Approach to Adaptation� For further information, please visit: www.unfccc.int and www.thegef.org ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE C HANGE — MO VING FROM SCIENTIFIC DEBATE TO POLICIES AND M EASURES 15 5 C ONVERGING A GENDAS Commonalities between Disaster Risk I n the policy debate on climate change there has been a growing need to address vulner- abilities to climate change through adaptation ef- Management and Adaptation to Climate Change As with disaster risk management, policies and forts, complementing mitigation efforts aimed at measures concerned with climate change repre- reducing the rate and magnitude of climate sent a risk management approach. Both disaster pre- change. At present, this development has taken vention measures and climate adaptation place largely in parallel to the increasing shift measures aim to address underlying vulnerabili- from disaster management to disaster risk man- ties, which would otherwise put the natural and agement. human systems at risk to suffer disasters or cli- Due to the converging agendas there is an mate change impacts. outstanding opportunity for improved informa- The degree of vulnerability to a natural tion sharing and strategic and practical collabo- hazard or climate change is a function of the ration between these two focal areas in order to magnitude of physical exposure and prevalent develop a comprehensive risk management ap- environmental and socioeconomic conditions, proach, which addresses current and future haz- which may lessen or exacerbate the risk for a neg- ards and environmental risks taking a dynamic for- ative impact associated with a hazard or climate ward looking perspective. change. Therefore, both concepts depend on eval- In order to do so successfully, it is impor- uating risks, vulnerabilities and possible reme- tant to be aware of the synergies and differences dial measures. This is a continuous process that in in disaster risk management and adaptation to both cases needs a forward looking perspective climate change. rooted in an understanding of present day con- ditions. 16 D ISASTER R ISK MANAGEMENT IN A CHANGING CLIMATE In the context of dealing with risks related is focused on limiting the adverse impact of a to climate change, it is important to recognize that particular hazard, but not the onset of the haz- the starting point for adaptation measures is the ex- ard itself. isting vulnerability to climate variability and ex- This contrasts with climate change mitiga- tremes. Improving the capacity of communities, tion. It is now well established in the scientific governments or regions to deal with current cli- community, that climate change is largely anthro- mate vulnerabilities is likely to improve their pogenic. This means that humans have changed capacity to deal with future climatic changes. the exposure to climatic risks. Mitigation mea- sures recognize that the amount of greenhouse Differences gases in the atmosphere will influence the rate While the emphasis on a continuous and forward and magnitude of climate change. Therefore it is looking process of risk evaluation is similar, the within the capacity of humans to influence their time horizons tend to be different. Disaster risk exposure to change. management is more concerned with the present. The scope of disaster risk management goes Emphasis is placed on vulnerabilities revealed beyond climate related disasters. Preventive mea- through past disasters is particular strong and the sures address hydro-meteorological (torrential focus tends to be more on near term trends (the rain, floods, droughts, storms) and geo-morpho- next 5–10 years) rather than long-term changes. logical (earthquakes, volcanic eruptions) haz- In anticipating climate change, the scien- ards1. Adaptation to climate change on the other tific and policy debate usually takes a much long- hand is not only focused on extreme events, but er time horizon than disaster risk management. also, as outlined earlier, on changes in average Climate projections are usually made for the next climatic conditions and climate variability, which 20, 50 and 100 years. 2025, 2050 and 2100 often may modulate the vulnerability to certain disas- represent the reference years of comparison to ters. present day situations. It is important to under- The goal should therefore be to build a com- stand, which economic policies, sector strategies prehensive risk management framework, which and infrastructure developments tend to set off recognizes current and future vulnerabilities as long-term processes, which are difficult to reverse well as the compound effects of multiple disas- at a latter stage. In such cases it is particularly ters within a given region. useful to incorporate longer-term time horizons and pool knowledge from disaster and climate change risk assessments. Another difference exists in relation to Note 1. General disaster risk management includes also physical exposure. Natural hazards, as their name addressing technological hazards. However, in implies, are largely perceived as a given and the context of the paper emphasis is placed on therefore beyond human control. Mitigating di- the interaction between climate change and nat- ural hazards and their implications for disaster sasters has therefore a very different connotation risk management. from climate change mitigation. Disaster mitigation C ONVERGING A GENDAS 17 D EVELOPMENT P ROCESSES — T HE I NTEGRATIVE 6 F RAMEWORK FOR RISK M ANAGEMENT B oth approaches, dealing with disasters and climate change, have recognized that remedial measures aimed at reducing vulner- ture�, because it needs to recognize all the dimen- sions relevant to poverty reduction and devel- opment ranging from important issues such as abilities need to be part of the development pro- economic growth to education, from large scale cess (e.g., UNDP 2003, Sperling ed. 2003, infrastructure to basic health care. There are many UN-ISDR 2004, Simms et al. 2004). It is poor pressing issues that need to be considered and people who generally tend to be more exposed prioritized. Disaster risk management and cli- to natural hazards and suffer the most from di- mate change adaptation is concerned with the sasters. While hazard management and climate sustainability of progress on these issues and change are issues which are also addressed by therefore should be an integral part of these. De- professionals within development institutions pending on how development activities are and there exists considerable overlap, compre- planned and executed, they can be impacted by hensive risk management approaches have been and impact on environmental risks to develop- limited, being more ad hoc than systematic. Bet- ment (UN-ISDR, 2004). ter integration of disaster prevention and climate Furthermore, development activities gen- change adaptation measures, provides a tremen- erate knowledge or compile information that is dous opportunity to strengthen progress towards directly relevant to disaster and climate change sustainable development. risk management. For example, development Development is the integrating platform for agencies like UNDP and the World Bank com- disaster and climate change risk management. It pile large data sets of micro and macroeconomic has the broadest scope. It provides the “Big Pic- information. The diversity of a country’s econo- 18 D ISASTER R ISK MANAGEMENT IN A CHANGING CLIMATE DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AND FLOOD RISKS IN THE MEKONG DELTA, VIETNAM Mekong delta in Vietnam is the prime agriculture zone in Vietnam. The developments in the recent decades rendered this zone more vulnerable to floods. During pre-1970s single cropping of rice was predominant, in consonance with rainfall and seasonal floods in the rainy season. Floating rice was grown from April to November, and this crop could tolerate various flood levels. Though yield was low, a minimum production was guaranteed to preserve the livelihood system. During 1980s the introduction of high yield varieties (HYVs) with short growing periods brought about a drastic change in cropping patterns. Double cropping of rice, consisting of both traditional and HYVs, has been widely disseminated to every region in the Mekong Delta. The cropping system was also adjusted to seasonal flood- ing. The short duration verities were planted during non flood season. Since early 1990s a diversified cropping system was introduced, with shrimp farming gaining importance. These systems are exposed to annual floods. This strategy, although providing high income, also rendered the cropping systems vulnerable to periodic floods. Hence, the incidence of floods in the recent years has in- creased when compared to the previous decades. The latest cropping patterns and livelihood systems are not well adapted to annual floods in Mekong Delta. Source: Subbiah, ADPC. my, trade patterns, and the economic volatility storms, torrential rainfalls and other adverse en- among other issues can have a positive of nega- vironmental events and changes. This knowledge tive influence on preparing for environmental is often readily available within the development shocks and recovering from a disaster. This is community, but it takes the interaction with ex- complemented by knowledge residing in NGOs, perts concerned with disaster and climate risks which may for example provide important in- to identify the vulnerabilities and adaptation sights on community level development concerns measures in light of current and future environ- and lack of resources that may undermine the mental change. ability of the community to withstand wind- D EVELOPMENT PROCESSES — THE I NTEGRATIVE FRAMEWORK EVELOPMENT FOR RISK MANAGEMENT 19 Integration of climate change concerns on the institutional level: BRINGING THE CARIBBEAN DISASTER MANAGEMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CONSTITUENCIES TOGETHER From 1997 to 2001 the Global Environment Facility (GEF) funded the Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change project (CPACC). The project was a coordinated effort by the World Bank, the OAS, the University of the West Indies and 12 countries of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), and focused on planning for adaptation to the impacts of climate change, specifically the impacts of sea level rise on coastal and marine resources. Given the strong coastal focus, the adaptation strategies and activities identified under CPACC were closely related to those being called for in mitigating the impact of coastal storms and hurri- canes. In preparing for the follow-on project to CPACC, called Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change (MACC), the two constituencies were brought together. Led by the Caribbean Disaster and Emergency Response Agency (CDERA) and the MACC team, national disaster coordinators, climate change focal points, and representa- tives from specialized regional institutions, the University of the West Indies and the insurance industry, identified a program of common actions for adapting to climate change and mitigating hydro-meteorological hazards. Specific recommendations were made to explore synergies between disaster risk management and adapta- tion to climate change and some are now being implemented under the MACC project. Further strengthening and expansion of the cooperation between the two constituencies is needed however to have a lasting impact, and this will require interventions of an institutional nature. Such an institutional initiative was taken by the Caribbean Development Bank (CBD) which has developed guidelines for natural hazard impact assessment and their integration into environmental impact assessment (EIA). Traditionally, the EIA process is concerned with analyzing the impact of projects on the environment. This can relatively easily be extended to incorporate to natural hazard risk consideration, including the impacts of natural hazards on the project and the exacerbation of hazard impacts introduced by the project. CBD through its Disaster Mitigation Facility for the Caribbean has collaborated with the Caribbean Community’s CPACC project to develop a Sourcebook on the Integration of Natural Hazards into the Environmental Impact Assessment Process into the EIA process. By addressing all natural hazards including those associated with climate change, the Source- book brings together multi-hazard risk management and climate change adaptation. Source: Jan Vermeiren, OAS and Cassandra Rogers, CBD. 20 D ISASTER R ISK MANAGEMENT IN A CHANGING CLIMATE Integration of climate change concerns on the project level: TSHO ROLPA RISK REDUCTION PROJECT IN NEPAL AS OBSERVED ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATION Several Himalayan glacial lakes have witnessed significant expansion in size and volume as a result of rising temperatures. This increases the likelihood of catastrophic discharges of large volumes of water in events which are known as Glacial lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). One of the most dangerous glacial lakes in Nepal is the Tsho Rolpa lake at an altitude of about 5000m, and whose size increased from 0.23 square kilometres in 1957-58 to 1.65 square kilometres by 1997. The Tsho Rolpa glacial lake project in one of the most signifi- cant examples of collaborative anticipatory planning by the government, donors, and experts in GLOF mitigation. Tsho Rolpa was estimated to store approximately 90-100 million m3, a hazard that called for urgent attention. A 150-meter tall mo- raine dam held the lake, which if breached, could cause a GLOF event in which a third or more of the lake could flood down- stream. The likelihood of a GLOF occurring at Tsho Rolpa, and the risks it posed to the 60MW Khimti hydro power plant that was under construction downstream, was sufficient to spur HMG to initiate a project in 1998, with the support of the Netherlands Development Agency (NEDA), to drain down the Tsho Rolpa glacial lake. To reduce this risk, an expert group recommend- ed lowering the lake three meters by cutting an open channel in the moraine. In addition, a gate was constructed to allow water to be released as necessary. While the lake draining was in progress, an early warning system was simultaneously es- tablished in 19 villages downstream of the Rolwaling Khola on the Bhote/Tama Koshi River to give warning in the event of a Tsho Rolpa GLOF. Local villagers have been actively involved in the design of this system, and drills are carried out periodically. The World Bank provided a loan to construct the system. The four-year Tsho Rolpa project finished in December 2002, with a total cost of USD 2.98 million from The Netherlands and an additional USD 231,000 provided by Government of Nepal. The goal of lowering the lake level was achieved by June 2002, which reduced the risk of a GLOF by 20%. The complete prevention of a GLOF at Tsho Rolpa necessitates further reducing the lake water, perhaps by as much as 17 meters. Expert groups are now undertaking further studies, but it is obvious that the cost of mitigating GLOF risks is substantial and time consuming. The cost, however, is much less than the potential damage that would be caused by an actual event in terms of lost lives, communities, development setbacks, and energy generation. Source: Agrawala, OECD (see also OECD 2003a). D EVELOPMENT PROCESSES — THE I NTEGRATIVE FRAMEWORK EVELOPMENT FOR RISK MANAGEMENT 21 I DENTIFYING AND A DDRESSING CHALLENGES TO THE C OORDINATION OF C LIMATE C HANGE AND D ISASTER 7 R ISK MANAGEMENT I t seems obvious to integrate climate change adaptation and disaster risk management ef- forts. Some successful initiatives have happened, itself is already useful. Even if uncertainty exists about the direction of change, change should im- ply precaution. Change means that past experi- but there is still considerable fragmentation. Why ences upon which disaster risk planning efforts is this so? And what can be done to overcome it? have previously been based on may only be of lim- ited use for disaster preparedness in the future (if CHALLENGE: Uncertainty — A reason at all). Knowledge of change implies flexibility and for delaying adaptation efforts? the continuous re-evaluation of risk and re-adjust- Uncertainty in model projections is often cited ment of measures when necessary. Ignoring cli- as a reason for a wait-and-see approach for ac- mate change when planning for hydro-meteoro- tion. This is wrong, since a lot can already logical disasters and implementing development achieved by utilizing the existing information on strategies, may lead to solutions which do not have climate change. It is also important to recognize the capacity to adapt to changes in physical expo- that uncertainty in the model projections will sure in the future and thereby may exacerbate never be fully resolved (as is the case in projec- vulnerabilities to environmental hazards in the tions of economic growth, population growth and long run. Instead of choosing for example a rigid other socioeconomic variables). However, this structure to control floods, it may be better to ex- uncertainty does not necessarily have to be asso- plore natural resource management options. ciated with inaction. Usually, however, there exists more specif- The fact that climate change is occurring has ic information on climatic changes which gives already considerable implications for disaster risk insights into at least the qualitative, if not quan- management strategies. The knowledge of change titative direction of change. In connection with 22 D ISASTER R ISK MANAGEMENT IN A CHANGING CLIMATE ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT FOR THE BÚZI WATERSHED AREA, MOZAMBIQUE Globally, weather events will become more extreme and intense. Human-induced climate change is one of the causes. Several regions of Mozambique are already experiencing intensified hurricanes and the disasters that seem to follow the changing climate. Because of this, the Government of Mozambique decided to actively include disaster risk management in the national plan of action to reduce extreme poverty. At provincial level, the population of the Búzi district in the Sofala province is aware of the destructive nature of floods and cyclones, but an integrated DRM concept including adaptation measures and an early warning system is still at an early stage. Hence, the local government of Sofala and its German partner GTZ agreed on a project to additionally include adaptation to climate change in its disaster risk management planning. The project aims to prepare the local population to better manage the mounting threats of cyclones and floods. Climatic conditions are worsening in the long term; disaster risk management plans have to adapt to this challenge. Activities to build capacity for and raise awareness about adaptation to climate change target the members of municipalities and local committees. This will be accomplished through governmental consulta- tion at provincial and district level, seminars, studies and best practice examples.To strengthen the early warning system of the Rio Búzi watershed area, a more precise and comprehensive record and forecast model for gauge water levels will be introduced. The experience gained in the Búzi district will be distributed widely through the National Adaptation Pro- gramme of Action process and the committee in charge. The project is supported by the Climate Protection Programme of the GTZ, and is embedded as a complemen- tary element within the German technical cooperation programme titled “Rural development Mozambique�. Source: H. Liptow, GTZ. an understanding of current vulnerabilities, such opment planning efforts to ensure that systems knowledge provides insights whether a specific are not further stressed, but rather that their adap- climatic risk is likely to be exacerbated in the fu- tive capacity is enhanced. ture and therefore should receive further atten- In some cases, there is at least some knowl- tion. edge of the magnitude of change that can be ex- Much information can be gained by sepa- pected at regional to sub-regional level. Sea level rating likely from unlikely impacts. Furthermore is expected to rise by 0.09 to 0.89 cm by 2100 in some impacts are more immediate than others comparison with present day levels. While there as illustrated in the cases of changes in drought is still considerable difference in the minimum and flood frequency and intensity and glacial and maximum values, the projection given an melts and coral bleaching. For example, in a se- indication of the likely range. In conjunction with ries of case studies the OECD uses a qualitative knowledge of local environmental conditions, natural resource management issues and disas- metric, based on degree of uncertainty of climate ter risk such information can be used to guide change projections, the urgency of the impact and for example coastal infrastructure development the significance of the sectors affected (OECD and settlement policies. 2003 a-d, 2004 a,b). Such approaches help to iden- It is important to keep in mind that weigh- tify priority areas of concern and can be incorpo- ing uncertainty is not a new challenge, but rath- rated into disaster risk management and devel- er an integral part of disaster risk management. IDENTIFYING AND ADDRESSING CHALLENGES TO THE COORDINATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT 23 Uncertainty is also part of disaster risk preven- ing vulnerabilities. In this context it is even more tion efforts that deal with probabilistic events paramount that information is efficiently col- such as earthquakes or hurricanes. Experience lected, and user-friendly systems to access and gained through disaster risk management can disseminate information are put in place. therefore help to inform climate change adapta- Understanding climate risk and climate tion measures how uncertainties can be ad- change depends on the continuous collection of dressed. data of the most crucial climate variables. Such Climate change means that further precau- data is important to develop forecasting models, tion needs to be applied. In the case of engineer- test and validate climate models and detect re- ing efforts this may mean to increase safety fac- gional climate trends. It is therefore important tors to ensure that building structures could that meteorological stations are maintained and withstand possible increases in the peak winds climate data is shared. This is particularly true in of hurricanes or increases in the magnitude and developing countries, where the network of me- frequency of extreme events (IPCC). What chang- teorological stations is sparser. es through climate change is the time perspec- Often lack of climate information is not the tive for weighing risks, which brings us to the challenge. Rather the challenge lies in appropri- next barrier to integrated approaches. ately accessing and communicating information derived for example from seasonal forecasts. CHALLENGE: Short-term thinking Uncertainties need to be addressed, but the in- Often risks to investments are not considered for formation has also to be clear enough for stake- the full life-time of the project, discounting the holders to act. Here, the barriers are often insti- impacts of climate change. For example, a major tutional. Forecasting information needs to be infrastructure investment such as a bridge, provided in a format that is useful to vulnerable should serve for several decades, and therefore groups, e.g. farmers. This means understanding the design needs should incorporate potential the information needs of such groups and the hazards and environmental change over that time sociological processes that need to be taken into period. Already in 1999 Burton and van Aalst account to ensure that the information is taken suggested that a “full risk analysis� of develop- up and becomes part of the internal decision ment projects is needed, which addresses natu- making process. Hence, a two way communica- ral hazards as well as increases of risks due to tion process needs to take place, which also rec- climate change over the life-time of the project. ognizes relevant local and traditional knowledge and knowledge networks. CHALLENGE: Information collection, There are global early warning capabilities dissemination and implementation for tropical cyclones as well as many other haz- Accounting for climate risks within the develop- ards, but to be effective these information capa- ment context is often hampered by lack of infor- bilities need to be utilized and connected with mation, lack of information dissemination and appropriate response infrastructure on the coun- implementation of appropriate response struc- try and regional level. The World Meteorologi- tures. Climate change is superimposed on exist- cal Organization’s Global Observation System 24 D ISASTER R ISK MANAGEMENT IN A CHANGING CLIMATE represents the international framework for col- management efforts at various level of governance lecting weather and climate information around and decision-making within the development the globe through. The success of this system is context can be facilitated, so progress does not dependent on collection and sharing of country get lost and scientific advances are captured in level climate data and additional oceanographic their practical implications. data and is therefore dependent on the input from countries. In addition the WMO Global Data Pro- CHALLENGE: Institutional Structures cessing and Forecasting System (GDPFs) fosters A comprehensive response to natural hazards and the cooperation world, regional and national cen- climate change is often constrained by an insti- tres to process data and provide countries with tutional fragmentation and resulting communi- analysis and forecasts, including early warnings cation barriers regarding responsibilities of severe events. Such services, however, are only concerned with disaster management and climate useful if there exists also an institutional frame- change adaptation. This can explain in part by work that reacts efficiently to such warnings. This the different evolution of both concepts (as out- was again apparent during the 2004 hurricane lined earlier) and the resulting different policy season, where Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan and financing frameworks. and Jeanne struck several countries and island On a country level responsibilities con- nations and the differences in levels of prepared- cerned with disaster management, including pre- ness are partly the reason for the different mag- vention and relief, is often traditionally associat- nitude of losses in life and economic assets. ed with Civil Defense, and the Ministries of Finally, information concerned with disas- Interior. Climate change policies and internation- ter risk management and adaptation to climate al exchange of information are usually serviced change is inherently complex, since it not only by the Ministries of Environment and Energy. has to include biophysical information about the Similarly, disaster risk management and disaster risk, but also environmental and socio- climate change issues within the development economic information of underlying risk factors. context are many times serviced by different de- This requires a multi-disciplinary understanding partments (divisions, etc.) within bi- and multi- of the issue combining specialist knowledge with lateral organizations. For example, disaster man- an understanding of the “big picture�. Often in- agement is often affiliated with infrastructure stitutions lack one or the other. Rotational while climate change is anchored with environ- schemes, which expose professionals to various ment. This makes sense historically as a consid- topics, are for example common in many organi- erable component of disaster relief efforts had to zations. These professionals bring a broad and focus on reconstructing viable infrastructure. Cli- important understanding of various develop- mate change was initially regarded as an envi- ment issues into the picture of risk management, ronmental problem before it was recognized in but need to be complemented by specialist un- its threat to development processes. derstanding of the nature of risk. There is no gen- As a result different cultures of thinking and eral recipe here, but consideration should be giv- incentive structures exist, while the focus of di- en to how a consistent programmatic approach to risk saster management and climate change adapta- IDENTIFYING AND ADDRESSING CHALLENGES TO THE COORDINATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT 25 tion has converged through their emphasis on Measures concerned with disaster preven- risk and vulnerability reduction. tion are often implemented during reconstruc- This separation is further mirrored in the tion efforts following a disaster. In the wake of international policy environment. As earlier men- the disaster, institutional weaknesses, lack of tioned climate change negotiations take place warning systems and issues become glaringly within the UNFCCC, which is an outcome of the apparent. This was tragically illustrated in the 1992 UN Conference on Environment and Devel- recent tsunami, where over 160,000 people lost opment Earth Summit in Rio known also as the their lives, families and livelihoods have been “Earth Summit�. This resulted in regular annual destroyed and development progress has been international conferences (Conference of Parties) set back. In the face of the disaster the obligation and additional technical meetings aimed at de- is felt by many to ensure that this does not hap- veloping policies, which address the threat of cli- pen again. In this context the relief efforts, the mate change. The Kyoto Protocol is an outcome magnitude of international compassion and sup- of these meetings, and as it is now entering into port in conjunction with the financial commit- force will constitute an international framework ment to reduce the vulnerability to such hazards for mitigation climate change through reducing in the future, are heartening. Many of these re- greenhouse gas emissions. The emphasis on ad- gions impacted by the tsunami are vulnerable to aptation, while recognized also in the UNFCCC, various kinds of hazards and the compounding has initially gained less international attention effects of climate change. What can be done to and is only now seen as a necessary complemen- avoid such a range of hazards from turning into tary (but not alternative) measure to mitigation. disasters in the first place or at least minimize Usually, adaptation issues are largely attended their impact in the cases where the disaster risks to by the same ministerial delegates, who dealt are known? with mitigation issues and are usually different There is an imbalance in the level of fund- from the ministerial staff that focuses on disaster ing spent on natural disaster relief and recon- reduction initiatives, given that policies and mea- struction in comparison to what is spent on di- sures concerned with disaster management in a saster prevention. Although many disaster different international political forum. Conse- management institutions have adopted a preven- quently, this limited the exchange of information. tive approach to manage the risk of disasters some institutions have their financial resources CHALLENGE: Financing Frameworks still bound to be used only to finance relief ef- Another outcome of the parallel evolution of the forts. In a recent press release UNESCO highlight- concepts of disaster risk management and climate ed figures from its division of Basic and Engi- change and the distinct policy frameworks, are neering Science, which suggested that for every different financing frameworks, which do not $100 spent by the international community on necessarily promote a comprehensive risk man- risks and disasters, $96 go to emergency relief and agement approach that addresses multiple natu- reconstruction, and only $4 on prevention ral hazards and climate change. (UNESCO 2005). In this context it is important to 26 D ISASTER R ISK MANAGEMENT IN A CHANGING CLIMATE recognize that creating incentives for disaster pre- ment context. The integration of disaster risk vention is often associated with considerable cost management into PRSPs and country assistance savings, not to mention helps to avoid loss of life, strategies is increasing, but I not yet systematized. human tragedies and suffering (not captured in There has been considerable support for economic analysis). climate change adaptation through bilateral and Rather than discussing a separate funding some multilateral initiatives. Other funding framework for prevention measures, it may be sources for climate change adaptation are linked better to consider how incentives for integrating to the UNFCCC process. A potential overlap be- risk reduction measures can be strengthened tween funding climate change adaptation and within the development context, given that the disaster prevention exists for example in the Spe- reduction of risk would benefit the sustainable cial Climate Change Fund (SCCF), which should achievement of development objectives. Where promote the “strengthening existing and, where disaster risks are known, it would make sense to needed, establishing national and regional cen- integrate risk mitigating measures into develop- tres and information networks for rapid response ment processes that influence physical and so- to extreme weather event, utilizing information cioeconomic vulnerabilities. Yet, while the impli- technology as much as possible� (see cations of disaster and climate risks for www.unfccc.int, decision 5/CP.9). development have been recognized in the litera- Initial steps have been taken which support ture, these risks have not been systematically rec- disaster risk management and climate change ognized and addressed in development strate- adaptation initiatives by focusing on addressing gies. Burton and van Aalst (2004) point out, that underlying vulnerabilities and the integration for example, most Poverty Reduction Strategy into development processes. There is the oppor- Papers (PRSPs) do often not recognize natural tunity to maximize the resources already avail- hazards, while PRSPs would provide a good stra- able by exploring inter-linkages in the existing tegic framework for addressing such risks (as well financing frameworks through comprehensive as climate change impacts) within the develop- risk management approaches. IDENTIFYING AND ADDRESSING CHALLENGES TO THE COORDINATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT 27 C ONCLUSION C limate change is happening, changing disaster risk profiles, underlying envi- ronmental socioeconomic vulnerabilities and in- current climatic extremes and thereby links di- rectly with disaster risk management. Measures that reduce the impact of hurricanes and other troducing new environmental hazards that weather related hazards on livelihoods, infra- further impact on development processes. structure and economic sectors are likely to Given the influence of development pro- strengthen the adaptive capacity to climate cesses on vulnerabilities to current natural haz- change. This is particularly the case, when likely ards and climate change, it is paramount that risk climate changes over the life-time of the project management takes place within the development or the envisioned impact of the project are con- context. At present there are institutional, politi- sidered. In contrast to geological disasters, it is cal, financial and information barriers for doing important to ensure that current disaster preven- so. In the discussion of the barriers the paper has tion efforts aimed at weather related events have pointed to some general ideas to overcome these the built-in capacity to accommodate changes in challenges in order to create risk management ap- frequency and magnitude over time. proach that addresses the vulnerability to current In addition to recognizing the impact of cli- disasters, but also adopt a long-term planning hori- mate change on climatic extremes, it is also im- zon with the capacity to dynamically adapt to changes portant to address the more subtle, but ongoing in the exposure to climate related hazards with changes in average climatic conditions and cli- time. matic variability. Such changes may not lead to The first step to climate change adaptation disasters by themselves, but—by modulating begins with addressing existing vulnerabilities to underlying vulnerabilities—may impact on the 28 D ISASTER R ISK MANAGEMENT IN A CHANGING CLIMATE coping capacity of a country, economic sector or of managing hazard risks and environmental change. community to deal with a specific hazard. Final- Both issues face also the common challenge of integrat- ly, some climate change impacts will be new to a ing remedial measures into development processes. specific region and coping strategies cannot be The next step would therefore be to shift to a based on previous experiences of the population programmatic approach, which allows for a compre- and sector in that region. hensive communication of natural hazard and climate Disaster risk management on the other risks within the development process. hand goes beyond addressing weather related With the increased focus on disaster pre- hazards. Hence, building a multi-hazard approach vention, the World Conference on Disaster Re- would allow for a more comprehensive account- duction presents an outstanding opportunity to ing of the various risks that impact on human call for a more comprehensive approach to risk well being and socioeconomic development. management, which takes into account multiple The converging focus of disaster risk man- hazards as well as climate change. Not recogniz- agement and climate change adaptation on ad- ing these synergies means competing agendas, dressing underlying vulnerabilities provides an incompatible and complicated policy frameworks opportunity for collaboration. However, such and separated communication channels. Work- collaboration has been limited to date due to in- ing together means promoting development pro- stitutional barriers, different policy and financ- cesses which can cope with current natural haz- ing frameworks, competing communication ards, but also have the built-in capacity to adapt structures and agendas. to changing risk patterns. Such enhanced coop- Climate change adaptation and disaster risk eration will help to ensure the sustainability of management require similar professional expertise that efforts aimed at the alleviation of poverty and captures the scientific and socioeconomic dimensions human suffering. C ONCLUSION ONCLUSION 29 ADDENDUM — T HE WORLD C ONFERENCE ON D ISASTER R EDUCTION , OUTCOMES R ELEVANT TO C LIMATE C HANGE I NITIATIVES T he messages of this discussion paper were presented on behalf of the Vulnerability and Adaptation Resource Group (VARG) at the World The development and strengthening of institu- tions, mechanisms and capacities at all levels, in particular at the community level, that can sys- Conference on Disaster Reduction (WCDR) in tematically contribute to building resilience to Kobe, Japan, January 18-22, 2005 to support the hazards dialogue on the inter-linkages and differences The systematic incorporation of risk reduction between disaster risk management and climate approaches into the design and implementation change adaptation efforts. of emergency preparedness, response and recov- Overall, the outcomes of WCDR call for a ery programs in the reconstruction of affected strengthening of preventive measures to reduce communities. substantially the loss of human lives and social, economic and environmental assets of commu- Associated with the aforementioned stra- nities and countries over the next ten years. To tegic goals the Hyogo Framework identifies pri- achieve this outcome the Hyogo Framework for orities for action. In this context the link between Action 2005-2015: Building the Resilience of Nations disaster risk management and climate change and Communities to Disasters outlines three stra- was subject of intensive formal and informal de- tegic goals: bates at the conference. The resulting outcome The more effective integration of disaster risk con- was that the Hyogo Framework has explicitly siderations into sustainable development policies, recognized climate variability and change as im- planning and programming at all levels, with portant contributors to patterns of disaster risk special emphasis on disaster prevention, mitiga- (Preamble/A. Challenges posed by disasters) and tion, preparedness and vulnerability reduction. therefore strongly supports linking disaster risk 30 D ISASTER R ISK MANAGEMENT IN A CHANGING CLIMATE management and climate change adaptation ef- the United Nations Framework Convention (UN- forts: FCCC) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Cli- Paragraph 19, concerned with reducing un- mate Change (IPCC). The outcomes of WCDR derlying risk factors, identifies in the context seek to establish a multi-disciplinary, forward of “Environment and natural resource man- looking approach to disaster risk management. agement� the need to “[p]romote the integra- The understanding, mapping and sharing of di- tion of risk reduction associated with existing saster risk information, promotion of early warn- climate variability and future climate change into ing systems, weather and climate forecasts and strategies for reduction of disaster risk and adap- identification of long-term changes and emerg- tation to climate change, which would include ing risks are essential elements to this approach. the clear identification of climate-related disas- In order to gauge the status of disaster risk re- ter risks, the design of specific risk reduction duction the Hyogo Framework furthermore sug- measures and improved and routine use of cli- gests that national base line assessments are pub- mate risk information by planners, engineers and lished and this information be shared with other decision-makers� as one of the key activ- regional and international bodies. There are ob- ities. vious linkages with ongoing climate change re- Chapter IV, concerned with “Implementation search and policy processes that can be utilized. and Follow-up� notes that States should The integration of disaster risk manage- “[p]romote the integration of risk reduction as- ment efforts into development processes is rec- sociated with existing climate variability and fu- ognized as essential to reducing vulnerabilities. ture climate change into strategies for the reduc- In this context, it is important to ensure that a tion of disaster risk and adaptation to climate clear and consistent message on climate risks is change; ensure that the management of risks as- communicated. As noted in the discussion paper, sociated with geological hazards, such as earth- climate change not only impacts on climatic ex- quakes and landslides, are fully taken into account tremes and hence disaster risks, but also leads to in disaster risk reduction programmes�. more subtle changes in average climatic condi- Chapter IV of the Hyogo Framework further- tions, which also influence development pros- more notes in terms of “Resource Mobiliza- pects. It is important to capture the full dimen- tion� that States should “[m]ainstream disas- sion of climate change and its impacts when ter risk reduction measures appropriately into mainstreaming adaptation measures. Therefore, multilateral and bilateral development assistance as stressed in this paper, it is important to pro- programmes including those related to poverty mote the communication between and within reduction, natural resource management, urban institutions to ensure that activities concerned development and adaptation to climate change�. with disaster risk management and climate change adaptation build on existing synergies Given the recognition of climate change in and complementarities, while being aware of rel- its implications for disaster risk management, it evant conceptual differences. is now particularly important to strengthen pro- Ultimately, success will be defined by the fessional linkages. The Hyogo Framework rec- reduction of vulnerabilities to natural hazards ognizes in its annex explicitly the relevance of and climate change. One indication of progress A DDENDUM 31 will be the integration of disaster and climate risk Note management into development processes and For further information on WCDR outcomes, please see the Report of the Conference (A/CONF.206/6), which how this has led to successful vulnerability re- includes the Hyogo Declaration, The Hyogo Framework duction over time, e.g. by promoting sustainable for Action 2005-2015: Building the Resilience of Nations development and reducing the occurrence and and Communities to Disasters: http://www.unisdr.org /wcdr/intergover/official-doc/L-docs/Final-report- magnitude of disasters in a particular region in conference.pdf the face of comparable or increasing exposure to natural hazards and environmental change. 32 D ISASTER R ISK MANAGEMENT IN A CHANGING CLIMATE R EFERENCES Adapting to Climate Change in Caribbean Scientific Basis. Contribution of the Working (ACCC) Project. 2003. 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Nef, Oxfam and IIED (with of NGOs World Meteorological Organization (WMO), of the Working Group on Climate Change 2003. Climate Change and Human Health: and Development). London. 36 pp. Risks and Responses. Summary. World Sperling, F. ed., 2003. Poverty and Climate Health Organization - Europe, Rome. Change: Reducing the Vulnerability of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Poor through Adaptation. Inter-agency re- 2004. WMO statement on the status of the port by the African Development Bank global climate in 2003. WMO-No. 966. Gene- (AfDB), Asian Development Bank (ADB), va. 11 pp. 34 D ISASTER R ISK MANAGEMENT IN A CHANGING CLIMATE APPENDIX I — OVERVIEW OF NATURAL H AZARDS AND D ISASTERS Fact Sheet: Natural Hazards and Disasters General Natural Hazards can be of hydro-meteorological and geological origin. Hydro-meteorological (water and weather-related) hazards include for example intense precipitation events, floods, droughts, hail, windstorms, and tropical cyclones. Geological hazards include volcano eruptions and earthquakes. Triggered by these weather-related or geologic events may be other (secondary) hazards such as land- slides and tsunamis. If a disaster occurs, depends always on the outcome of the interaction between the magnitude of the hazard event and the socio-economic and environmental vulnerabilities of the system being im- pacted. Where the system is unable to cope with the event, it breaks down and a disaster occurs. Hence, risk reduction measures can be aimed at reducing the exposure to the hazard, where this is possible (e.g. physical protection from avalanches), and/or at addressing underlying vulnerabilities to the haz- ard that allow losses of life and assets to happen. Disaster Risks: Selected General Findings (Compiled from: UNDP 2004, World Bank 2005, Munich Re 2005 ) In overall comparison 3.4 billion people are highly exposed to at least one hazard On average more than 600 disasters are recorded each year globally Geophysical hazards are associated with zones of tectonic activity and are therefore largely clus- tered around fault boundaries characterized by mountainous terrain Hazards largely driven by hydro-meteorological processes particularly affect the eastern coastal regions of major continents as well as some interior regions of North and South America, Europe and Asia 35 Drought is more widely dispersed across the semiarid tropics Multi-hazard areas, which include hazards caused by both geophysical and weather related pro- cesses, are predominantly found in East and South Asia, Central America and western South America Impacts & Vulnerabilities In 35 countries more than 1 in 20 residents lives in an area identified as high in mortality risk from three or more hazards 160 countries have more than one fourth of their total population in areas at relatively high mortal- ity risk from one of more hazards Disasters with high mortality are predominantly observed in developing countries The majority of disasters are of hydro-meteorological origin Economic Costs and Impact The economic cost of disaster has been increasing for decades due to urbanization and concentra- tion of wealth, population growth, environmental degradation and change and other factors. 2004 was the costliest year in terms of natural catastrophes, two thirds of the economic impacts can be attributed to weather related events. The estimated global annual cost amounts to about 145 billion USD. The number of economic losses (inflation adjusted) over the last ten years if compared to 1960-1969 has increased by a factor of 7.0. Over the same time period the amount of insured losses has in- creased by a factor of 15.6. Insurance penetration in developing countries is low and therefore many livelihoods were not insured against the losses and depending on other means of financial assis- tance. Relief Costs associated with natural disasters from 1992-2003: US$ 2.5 billion World Bank emergency lending from 1980-2003: US$ 14.4 billion Total economic impact of a particularly disaster type tends to be higher in industrial and lower- middle-income countries than in developing countries However, developing countries usually suffer the highest economic losses in relative terms and in the impact on development processes Insufficiently or not captured: Indirect economic losses and long-term consequences of disasters. This is particularly true, where disasters can destroy livelihoods, but the impact may take place outside the economic system and is therefore not captured. Trends important for consideration in Disaster Risk Management Population growth & urbanization predominantly in developing countries Globalization: Interaction between natural and economic shocks and implications for vulnerability reduction Environmental degradation and change; climate change For further detailed information on regional and country specific impacts and risk factors: Munich Re. 2005. Topics Geo. Annual review: Natural catastrophes 2004. Munich. UNDP 2004. Reducing Disaster Risk – A challenge for development. New York. World Bank 2005. Natural Disaster Hotspots – A Global Risk Analysis. Disaster Risk Management Series No.5. Washington, DC. 36 D ISASTER R ISK MANAGEMENT IN A CHANGING CLIMATE APPENDIX II — OVERVIEW OF C LIMATE C HANGE I MPACTS (A PPENDIX BASED ON IPCC 2001) Climate change is superimposed on the already existing vulnerabilities to natural hazards. It affects the exposure to hydro-meteorological hazards and thereby alters the risk profile of a given region. Besides altering the magnitude and frequency of extreme events, climate change also impacts on average cli- matic conditions. While changes may be more subtle in nature, they are modulating underlying envi- ronmental and socioeconomic vulnerabilities. Fact Sheet: Global Climate Change General Trends and Projections of global and regional climate Observations The earth’s surface is warming. The global mean surface temperature increased by 0.6 ± 0.2 ºC over the 20th century; land areas warmed more than oceans. Globally, 1990s very likely warmest decade in instrumental record Most of observed warming over last 50 years likely due to increases in greenhouse gas concentra- tions due to human activities Continental precipitation increased by 5–10% over the 20th century in the Northern Hemisphere, although decreased in some regions, which includes north and west Africa and parts of the Medi- terranean. Heavy precipitation events increased in mid- and high northern latitudes. Increased summer drying and associated incidence of drought in a few areas. In some regions, such as parts of Asia and Africa, the frequency and intensity of droughts have been observed to increase in recent decades. 37 Observed Changes in Biophysical systems Widespread retreat of non-polar glaciers during the 20th century Permafrost thawed, warmed and degraded in parts of the polar, sub-polar, and mountainous re- gions El Niño events became more frequent, persistent, and intense during the last 20 to 30 years com- pared to the pervious 100 years Plant and animal ranges shifted poleward and up in elevation Increased frequency of coral reef bleaching, especially during El Niño events Model Projections Projected increases of global average surface temperature in comparison to 1990 levels: 0.4-1.1 ºC by 2025, 0.8-2.6 ºC by 2050 and 1.4-5.8 ºC by 2100 Global average surface temperature during 21st century rising at rates very likely without prece- dent during the last 10000 years Nearly all land areas very likely to warm more than the global average, with more hot days and heat waves and fewer cold days and cold waves Rise in sea level during 21st century that will continue for further centuries Hydrological cycle more intense. Increase in globally averaged precipitation and more intense pre- cipitation events very likely over many areas Increased summer drying and associated risk of drought likely over most mid-latitude continental interiors Impacts Projected climate change will have beneficial and adverse effects on both environmental and socio- economic systems, but the larger the changes and the rate of change in climate the more the adverse effects predominate The adverse impacts of climate change are expected to fall disproportional upon developing coun- tries and the poor within countries Ecosystems and species are vulnerable to climate change and other stresses and some will be irre- versibly damaged or lost In some mid- to high latitudes, plant productivity (trees and some agricultural crops) would in- crease with small increases in temperature. Plant productivity would decrease in most regions of the world for warming beyond a few ºC. Many physical systems are vulnerable to climate change (e.g. the impact of costal storm surges will be exacerbated by sea level rise, and glaciers and permafrost will continue to retreat). Implications Adaptation can complement climate change mitigation (reduction of greenhouse gas emissions) in a cost-effective strategy to reduce climate change risks; together they can contribute to sustainable development objectives. Adaptation has the potential to reduce adverse effects of climate change and can often produce immediate ancillary benefits, but will not prevent all damages Inertia in the interacting climate, ecological, and socio-economic systems is a major reason why anticipatory adaptation and mitigation actions are beneficial. Fact Sheet: Climate Change Effects and Impacts, Africa General Africa is highly vulnerable to climate change (IPCC 2001). The adaptive capacity of human systems is low due to lack of economic resources and technology, and vulnerability is high as a result of heavy 38 D ISASTER R ISK MANAGEMENT IN A CHANGING CLIMATE reliance on rain-fed agriculture, frequent droughts and floods, and poverty. Climate change is superim- posed on existing climate variability and extremes and represents a growing additional challenge to efforts to alleviate poverty. Climatic trends and projections Observational records for Africa show a warming of about 0.7 ºC over most of the continent during the 20th, rainfall decreased over large portions of the Sahel, while increases in rainfall were observed in east central Africa. The project average future warming for Africa range from 0.2 ºC per decade (low scenario) to more than 0.5 ºC per decade (high scenario). The warming is expected to be greatest over the interior of the semi- arid margins of the Sahara and central Africa. While no clear trend in precipitation can be detected for low warming scenarios, intermediate warming scenarios suggest that by 2050 north Africa and the interior of southern Africa will experiences decreases in precipitation during the growing season. Parts of equatorial east Africa will experience increases in rainfall in December-February and decreases from June to August. Areas of concern Climate change has to be recognized as an issues major concern with respect to water resources, food security, natural resources productivity and biodiversity, human health, desertification and coastal zones. Regional Impacts of Climate Change on Africa Grain yields are projected to decrease for many scenarios, diminishing food security, particularly in small food-importing countries (medium to high confidence) Major rivers of Africa are highly sensitive to climate variation; average runoff and water availabil- ity would decrease in the Mediterranean and southern countries of Africa (medium confidence)· Extension of ranges of infectious diseases would adversely affect human health in Africa (medium confidence) Desertification would be exacerbated by reductions in average annual rainfall, runoff, an soil mois- ture, especially in southern, North and West Africa (medium confidence) Increases in droughts, floods, and other extreme events would add to stresses on water resources, food security, human health, and infrastructures, and would constrain development in Africa (high confidence) Significant extinctions of plant and animal species are projected and would impact rural liveli- hoods, tourism and genetic resources (medium confidence) Coastal settlements in, for example, the Gulf of Guinea, Senegal, Gambia, Egypt and along the East Southern African coast would be adversely impacted by sea level rise through inundation and coastal erosion (high confidence) Fact Sheet: Climate Change Effects and Impacts, Latin America General Latin America is already highly vulnerable to extreme climate events. As the adaptive capacity of hu- man systems is low, climate change is likely to add an additional burden, impacting in particular on the poor. A PPENDIX II — OVERVIEW VERVIEW OF CLIMATE CHANGE I MPACTS 39 Climate observations, trends and projections Climatic extremes associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are responsible for a large part of observed climate variability at interannual scales in Latin America. Temperature varies depend- ing on the different subregions. For example for northwestern South America monthly mean air tem- perature records show a warming of 0.5-0.8 ºC for the last decade of the 20th century. Columbia also shows decreasing trends of the diurnal temperature range (difference between daily Tmax and Tmin) for the past 30-40 years. In south tropical Argentina, warming is observed during the autumn season, while in extra-tropical west South America (Chile) has varied differently during the 20th century with some parts showing an increase while others showing a decrease in mean temperatures. In general, Latin America shows important variations in temperature some of which may be connected to climate change. Future projects of the mean annual surface temperature for the Latin America region suggest an increase by 0.2-2 ºC from 1990 to 2100 (B1 scenario). The projected changes in precipitation remain highly uncertain.Subregions of Latin America frequently experience extremes (hurricanes, droughts, floods; some of the extremes are strongly related to El Nino). Global warming may also exacerbate the variability in climate associated with climate phenomena that already produce important socioeconomic and environmental consequences. Areas of concern Climate change has to be recognized as an issue of major concern with respect to water resources, agri- culture, infrastructure, biodiversity conservation and natural resource management and health. Regional Impacts of Climate change on Latin America Loss and retreat of glaciers would adversely impact runoff and water supply in areas where glacier melt is an important water source (high confidence) Floods and droughts would become more frequent with floods increasing sediment loads and de- grade water quality in some areas (high confidence). Increases in intensity of tropical cyclones would alter risks to life, property and ecosystems from heavy rain, flooding, storm surges, and wind damages (high confidence). Yields of important crops are projected to decrease in many locations in Latin America, even when the effects of CO2 are taken into account; subsistence farming in some regions of Latin America could be threatened (high confidence) The rate of biodiversity loss would increase (high confidence) The geographical distribution of vector borne diseases would expand poleward and to higher ele- vations, and exposures to diseases such as malaria, dengue fever, and cholera will increase (medium confidence) Coastal human settlements, productive activities, infrastructure, and mangrove ecosystems would be negatively affected by sea level rise (medium confidence) Fact Sheet: Climate Change Effects and Impacts, Asia General Adaptive capacity of human systems low and vulnerability is high in the developing countries, while the developed countries of Asia are more able to adapt and less vulnerable. 40 D ISASTER R ISK MANAGEMENT IN A CHANGING CLIMATE Climate observations, trends and projections Climate differs widely in Asia ranging from the humid and cool continental climate of boreal Asia to monsoon influenced climate of tropical Asia. Rainfall in boreal Asia is highly variable on seasonal, interannual and special scales. Some increases in rainfall have been observed over recent decade. An- nual mean rainfall is low in most parts of the arid and semi-arid regions of Asia. In general, temporal variability of rainfall is high. Some of these regions have shown increasing trends in rainfall, while others experienced decreases. The temporal and special variations in rainfall observed in temperate Asia are greatly influenced by the East Asian monsoon. For example, the overall annual precipitation in China has been decreasing since 1965, while the summer monsoon has become stronger in northern China during globally warmer years. Precipitation in tropical Asia often varies spatially due to microcli- mate created in hill and mountain ranges. A long-term decreasing trend in rainfall can be observed for Thailand. An increase in extreme rainfall events has been observed over recent decades over Northwest Asia. Climate projections suggest an area-averaged mean annual increase in temperature of 3 ºC by 2050 if compared to the present (2.5 ºC if effects of aerosols are taken into account). The increase in daily mini- mum temperatures is projected to be more pronounced than the increase in daily maximum tempera- tures. Simulations suggest an enhanced hydrological cycle. Area averaged annual rainfall is projected to increase over Asia. However, decline in summer precipitation is likely for the central parts of arid and semi-arid Asia adding to already existing water stress conditions. Uncertainty remains in particular in the projections of winter and summer rainfall over south Asia, where a better understanding of the impact of climate change on the monsoon cycle is needed. Areas of concern Asia already experiences stress on environmental and socioeconomic systems due to rapid population growth and environmental degradation. Climate change is likely to exacerbate some of these impacts. Areas of concern include water and agricultural sectors, water resources, food security, biodiversity conservation and natural resource management, coastal zone management, infrastructure. Regional Impacts of Climate change on Asia Extreme events have increased in tropical and temperate Asia, including droughts, floods, forest fires and tropical cyclones (high confidence) Sea-level rise and an increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones would displace tens of millions of people in low-lying coastal areas of temperate and tropical Asia; increased intensity would increase flood risks in temperate and topical Asia (high confidence) Sea-level rise would put ecological security at risk, including mangroves and coral reefs (high confi- dence) Sea-level rise would exacerbate threats to biodiversity due to land-use and land-cover change and population pressure (medium confidence) Runoff and water availability may decrease in arid and semi-arid Asia, but increase in Northern Asia (medium confidence) A PPENDIX II — OVERVIEW VERVIEW OF CLIMATE CHANGE I MPACTS 41 Decreases in agricultural productivity and aquaculture due to thermal and water stress, sea-level rise, floods and droughts, and tropical cyclones would diminish food security in many countries of arid, tropical and temperate Asia (medium confidence) Agriculture would expand and increase in productivity in northern areas (medium confidence) Poleward movement of the southern boundary of the permafrost zones of Asia would result in a change of thermokast and thermal erosion with negative impacts on social infrastructure and in- dustries (medium confidence) Human health would be threatened by possible increase exposure to vector borne diseases and heat stress in parts of Asia (medium confidence). 42 D ISASTER R ISK MANAGEMENT IN A CHANGING CLIMATE