81658 Natural Disasters in the Middle East and North Africa: A Regional Overview January 2014 Urban, Social Development, and Disaster Risk Management Unit Sustainable Development Department Middle East and North Africa Natural Disasters in the Middle East and North Africa: A Regional Overview © 2014 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org All rights reserved 1 2 3 4 13 12 11 10 This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. 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All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Natural Disasters in the Middle East and North Africa: A Regional Overview January 2014 Urban, Social Development, and Disaster Risk Management Unit Sustainable Development Department Middle East and North Africa ii CONTENTS Foreword v Acknowledgments vii Abbreviations ix Executive Summary 1 I. Overview: Natural Disasters in the MNA Region 5 Regional Profile 6 Urban Vulnerability 12 Climate-Related Hazards 13 II. Regional Progress 17 DRM Efforts and Remaining Challenges 18 Highlights of Progress at the Regional Level 20 Highlights of Progress at the National Level 21 III. World Bank Disaster Risk Management Programming in the MNA Region 33 World Bank Programming for Recovery and Risk Reduction 34 Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) 36 IV. Proposed Way Forward 43 Strategic Pillars 44 Global DRM Best Practices Relevant to MNA Countries 50 Annex 1. Country Risk Management Profiles 57 Annex 2. Summary of the Jeddah Consultative Workshop 91 Annex 3. Bibliography 99 List of Figures 1. Disaster Trend in the MNA Region 7 2. MNA Region: Number of Disasters, by Disaster Type, 1980–2006 8 3. Average Number of Hazards in the MNA Region by Time, 1951–2005 10 4. Economic Damage and Total Number of People Affected by Disasters in MNA Region, 1981–2010 11 5. Comparison of Total Number and Type of Natural Hazards in MNA, 1980–2010 14 6. MNA Population Density Estimates, 2011 15 7. Hyogo Framework for Action Pillars 23 8. Spatial Distribution of Monthly Stations with at Least 10 Years of Data 29 9. Sea-Level Rise Projections 38 10. A Disaster Risk Management Framework 49 List of Tables 1. Core Activities for the Next Three Years, by Pillar 44 List of Boxes 1. Natural Disasters, Conflict, and Migration 19 2. Integrated Risk Management in Morocco 22 3. Reducing and Avoiding Risk: Municipal Development and Flood Protection in the Republic of Yemen 26 4. Djibouti Drought Post-Disaster Needs Assessment 31 5. World Bank Recovery and Risk Reduction Initiatives 35 6. Yemen Floods Post-Disaster Needs Assessment 35 7. Algeria and Lebanon Integrate DRM in Their High-Level Agendas 39 8. Integrating DRM into Urban Planning in Tripoli, Lebanon 40 9. Examples of World Bank Support for Urban Resilience 52 A REGIONAL OVERVIEW iii iv Foreword Managing disasters is one of the most complex development issues. Floods, earthquakes, droughts, and other hazards are critical challenges hindering growth and stability in World Bank member countries. Over the past 30 years, disasters have affected more than 40 million people in the Middle East and North Africa (MNA) Region and have cost their economies about US$20 billion. During the last 5 years alone, more than 120 disas- ters have caused an average of US$1 billion per year in damages and losses. In the MNA Region, the synergy of natural disasters, rapid urbanization, water scarcity, and climate change has emerged as a serious challenge for policy and planning. This report, prepared in close partnership with the United Nations Development Pro- gramme (UNDP) and the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), fo- cuses on these challenges, presenting a synthesis of the status of disaster risk in the MNA Region, including gaps and areas for remedial or enhanced actions. It highlights the progress already made and opportunities to learn from best practices, and provides criti- cal feedback to governments and partners on efforts and processes required to make the region disaster resilient. Lastly, this report proposes a strategic framework to help MNA countries shift from disaster response to proactive risk management. This report is the culmination of several years of interaction and partnership building fa- cilitated by the World Bank and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) that included working with governments, regional organizations, and nongov- ernmental organizations to make disaster risk management a core component of devel- opment programs. Inger Andersen Vice President Middle East and North Africa The World Bank A REGIONAL OVERVIEW v vi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The overall strategic direction for the report was provided by Franck Bousquet, Sector Manager of the Urban, Social Development, and Disaster Risk Management Unit, Sustain- able Development Department, Middle East and North Africa. The Task Team Leaders for the report were Deepali Tewari and Andrea Zanon, Lead Urban Specialist and Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist. The main authors of the report are Rakhi Bhavnani, Aditi Banerjee, Catherine Burtonboy, Osama Hamad, Alejandra Linares Rivas, and Sahar Safaie. The team is particularly grateful for the support of Junaid Kamal Ahmad, Director of Sustainable Development Department of the MNA Region. The report benefitted from a regional consultation workshop that was held on November 17–18, 2013, in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, under the leadership of the Presidency of Meteo- rology and Environment (PME). Almost 50 representatives of 14 countries from the Middle East and North Africa (MNA) region attended the workshop, aiming to update the draft report, share regional and international disaster risk management (DRM) practices, and coordinate closely to tackle disaster risk in the region. Special acknowledgment is ex- tended to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) for their partnership and contributions through- out the production of the report. The team would also like to thank Amjad Abbashar, Luna Abu-Swaireh, Lars Bernd, Sa- matar Abdi Osman, Abdulmalek Al-Jolahy, Edward Charles Anderson, Axel E. N. Baeum- ler, Henrike Brecht, Iride Ceccacci, Garry Charlier, Manuela Chiapparino, Bekele Debele Negewo, Alejandro Deeb, Katalin Demeter, Sateh Chafic El-Arnaout, Isabelle Forge, Marc Forni, Neil Simon Gray, Fadi Hamdan, Lucy M. Hancock, Niels B. Holm-Nielsen, Rajeev Is- sar, Kristina Katich, Olivier Lavinal, Ziad Nakat, Olivier Mahul, Sergio Mora, Zubair Murshed, Ziad Nakat, Alexandra Ortiz, Balakrishna Menon Parameswaran, Robert Reid, Pierre Ron- dot, Abdel Sanad, Hartwig Schafer, Banu Setlur, Lia Sieghart, Mariam Sherman, Shaffiq Somani, Asmita Tiwari, Vladimir Tsirkunov, Marcus Wijnen, Dorte Verner, Berna Yekeler, Jolanta Kryspin-Watson, and Doekle Wielinga for their inputs and review. Mapping and creative production services were provided by Sawsan Gad and Christina Irene. The main editors of the report were Caroline Vagneron, Alicia Hetzner, and Gina Wiatrowski. Special thanks goes to the Arab Organization for Administrative Development (ARADO), which enabled the World Bank to present the draft MNA DRM Regional Overview and obtain comments during the Eighth Environmental Management Conference, “Public Leadership in Times of Disasters,” which took place in February 2013. Finally and most importantly, the team gratefully acknowledges the financial support of the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), under the leadership of its Manager, Francis Ghesquiere, without which this report would not have been possible. A REGIONAL OVERVIEW vii viii ABBREVIATIONS AASTMT Arab Academy for Science, Technol- LAS League of Arab States ogy and Maritime Transport MNA Middle East and North Africa ARADO Arab Organization for MoU Memorandum of understanding Administrative Development NDMA National Disaster Management Act ASEAN Association of South East Asian Nations (Pakistan) CAMRE Council of Arab Ministers Responsible NDRMF National Disaster Risk Management for the Environment Framework (Pakistan) CARAD Natural Disaster Risk Assessment and OFDA Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance Monitory System (USAID) CAS Country Assistance Strategy OIC Organization of Islamic Cooperation CAT DDO Catastrophe deferred drawdown op- PDNA Post-Disaster Needs Assessment tion PME Presidency of Meteorology and CCA Climate change adaptation Environment (Saudi Arabia) CERD Djibouti Center for Research Studies PPCR Pilot Program for Climate Resilience CPS Country Partnership Strategy PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper CRED Centre for Research on the Epidemiol- RCDRR Regional Center for Disaster Risk ogy of Disasters Reduction CRW Crisis Response Window (World Bank) SDC Swiss Agency for Development and DDO Deferred drawdown option Cooperation DLNA Damage, loss, and needs assessment SECO Swiss State Secretariat for Economic DRFI Disaster risk financing and insurance Affairs DRM Disaster risk management SEGRC Executive Secretariat for Risk and Disas- DRR Disaster risk reduction ter Management (Djibouti) EMDAT OFDA/CRED International Disaster SESRIC Statistical, Economic and Social Database Research and Training Center for EU European Union Islamic Countries FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of SPCR Strategic Program for Climate Resil- the United Nations ience GCC Gulf Cooperation Council TFESSD Trust Fund for Environmentally and GDP Gross domestic product Socially Sustainable Development (World Bank) GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery UNDAF United Nations Development Assistance Framework GIZ German Agency for International Cooperation UNDP United Nations Development Pro- gramme HFA Hyogo Framework for Action UNISDR United Nations Office for Disaster Risk IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Reduction Change IRM Integrated risk management USAID United States Agency for International ISDRRM Islamic Strategy for Disaster Risk Development Reduction Management USGS United States Geological Survey ISESCO Islamic Educational, Scientific and WRI World Resource Institute Cultural Organization KACST King’s Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology A REGIONAL OVERVIEW ix x Executive Summary Disasters are increasing worldwide, with more devastating effects than ever before. The year 2011 saw the highest economic losses yet due to natural disasters, estimated at US$370 billion worldwide. This is an increase from 2010, which saw US$226 billion in eco- nomic losses, already 3 times the total of 2009. Disasters in 2010 also claimed significantly more lives, with nearly 304,000 killed—the highest number since 1976.1 A cumulative 3.3 million people have died around the world from the impacts of disasters in only 40 years (1970–2010). While the absolute number of disasters around the world has almost doubled since the 1980s, the average number of natural disasters in MNA has almost tripled over the same period.2 In the Middle East and North Africa (MNA),3 the synergy of natural disas- ters, rapid urbanization, water scarcity, and climate change has emerged as a seri- ous challenge for policy and planning. This synergy has reconfigured risk landscapes by making the region’s natural resource base fragile and extremely susceptible to a variety of internal and external factors. The 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction4 finds that, although global flood mortality risk has been on the de- crease since 2000, in MNA and some other regions, it is still increasing. The percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) exposed to floods, the most recurrent hazard in the region, has tripled from 1970–79 to 2000–2009.5 The 2008 floods in the governorates of Hadramout and Al-Mahara alone cost US$1.6 billion, the equivalent of 6 percent of the Republic of Yemen’s GDP.6 Earthquakes are the second most prevalent disaster in the region, with serious impacts on lives and livelihoods. Droughts recurrently hit the re- gion, bringing significant water shortages, economic losses, and adverse social conse- quences. Between 2008 and 2011, drought in Djibouti caused a yearly economic con- traction of approximately 3.9 percent of GDP.7 Among a series of floods that occurred in Jeddah during 2009–11, the 2009 floods had catastrophic consequences with losses that amounted to about US$1.36 billion.8 Despite the different levels of development, between 1980–2010, 81 percent of disaster events in MNA were concentrated in just 6 countries: Algeria, Djibouti, the Arab Republic of Egypt, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Morocco, and the Republic of Yemen. MNA’s rapid urbanization is increasing the exposure of people and economic assets to disaster events. The urban population already accounts for 62 percent of total population and is expected to double in the next 3 decades.9 Additionally, 3 percent 1 Swiss Re, “Natural Catastrophes and Man-Made Disasters in 2010.” 2 EM-DAT, OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, Université Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, www.emdat.net. 3 The Middle East and North Africa (MNA) Region, as defined by the World Bank Group, includes Algeria, Bahrain, Djibouti, the Arab Republic of Egypt, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Malta, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the Syrian Arab Republic, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, West Bank and Gaza, and the Republic of Yemen. 4 United Nations, 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction, 28. 5 Ibid, 32. 6 GFDRR, “Yemen Floods Post Disaster Needs Assessment.” 7 GFDRR, “Djibouti Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA).” 8 Nail M. Momani and Ayman S. Fadil, “Changing Public Policy Due to Saudi City of Jeddah Flood Disaster,” 424–28. 9 UN-HABITAT, The State of Arab Cities 2012: Challenges of Urban Transition, 2012, www.unhabitat.org. A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 1 of the region’s surface area is home to 92 percent of the total population.10 Citizens in urban areas must deal with floods on a regular basis, with limited structural protec- tion, inadequate citywide drainage systems, and weak nonstructural flood mitigation measures. The impact of urbanization is especially important in the region’s coastal areas, where the largest cities and economies are located. Today, approximately 60 million people (about 17 percent of MNA’s total population) live in the region’s coastal areas. Rapid growth of informal settlements is resulting in greater exposure to floods. If urban develop- ment continues unregulated, this will lead to the creation of new disaster risk. The future of the roughly 100 million poor people who are the least resilient to disasters is most concerning.11 According to the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),12 sea-level rise would cause millions to be displaced in the region. In Egypt alone, a 1-meter rise in sea level is estimated to put 12 percent of the country’s agricultural land at risk. The same event would directly affect 3.2 percent of the population in the region, compared to a global figure of 1.3 percent.13 Projections by climatologists and United Nations specialists suggest that MNA econo- mies and livelihoods will be the second most affected by climate change.14 In 2050, the region will likely face a 50 percent renewable water supply gap. Thus, water will need to be imported or desalinated, costing the driest MNA economies at least a 1 percent reduction in GDP.15 Governments across the region are increasingly seeking comprehensive disaster risk management (DRM) services. Increasing awareness of DRM issues has brought about progressive policy shifts, as seen in the creation of a number of DRM-specific institutions and investments in programs around the region. These programs, include early warning systems and national and city-level risk assessments. In 2010, for instance, the Islamic Conference of Environment Ministers adopted the Islamic Strategy for Disaster Risk Re- duction and Management, which aims to establish comprehensive DRM structures and policies across Islamic countries. Thanks to the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), since 2007, a range of country-level programs has been launched in Djibouti, Morocco, and the Republic of Yemen to increase their disaster resilience. These programs include activi- ties aimed at improving information availability on disaster risks, developing the policy environment for risk reduction, building capacities in DRM through training at the na- tional and local levels, and creating state-led, post-disaster recovery and reconstruc- tion programs. In Algeria, Djibouti, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, and the Republic of Yemen, donor-funded hazard risk assessments have been completed or are ongoing; flood-recovery projects have been launched in Djibouti and the Republic of Yemen; and inter-ministerial steering committees on DRM have been established under 10 World Bank, Poor Places, Thriving People. 11 World Bank, Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries: A Case for Adaptation Governance and Leadership in Building Climate Resilience. 12 Ibid. 13 Mostafa K. Tolba and Najib W. Saab, 2009 Report of the Arab Forum for Environment and Development, VIII. 14 World Bank, Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries. 15 Ibid. 2 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA the prime ministers’ offices in Djibouti, Lebanon, Morocco, and the Republic of Yemen, and under the Ministry of Interior in Algeria. While a certain level of momentum has been building on DRM in MNA, it has not yet been matched with the integrated approaches required to manage disaster risks effectively. In 2012, the region launched a 10-year Arab Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction, includ- ing the reduction of climate change impacts and disaster losses through the identifica- tion of strategic priorities; the enhancement of coordination mechanisms; and monitor- ing at the national, regional, and local levels. Nevertheless, given the region’s growing exposure to natural hazards, risk reduction challenges continue to grow. However, sys- tematically building awareness, institutional capacity at the national, regional and local levels, and a solid resource base can help minimize risks. Building these capacities entails taking immediate steps, and taking them collaboratively. Good development planning, informed by risk analysis, will contribute significantly to the path of development while simultaneously enhancing people’s lives and their livelihoods. Decentralization of the DRM agenda has moved slowly, although some countries are making a progressive shift. Most DRM activities continue to be conducted at the na- tional level. However, in Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, and the Republic of Yemen, a slow but progressive shift toward decentralization has begun. In Morocco, community-level DRM activities are being developed, including community maps, training on construction standards, and community early warning systems. The early warning systems are particu- larly important to empower communities to manage their own risks. The 2012 Sendai Re- port16 shows that an effective DRM strategy requires a decentralized approach and an appropriate division of resources (human and financial) in all tiers of government. At the local level, city managers are not only the ones with key roles to play. Civil society orga- nizations can also contribute significantly to building local resilience. MNA countries are still among the most centralized in the world, with some of the lowest total local govern- ment expenditures (ranging from 3 percent in Jordan to 18 percent in Egypt, compared to the world average of about 22 percent). However, several countries in the region, including Morocco, Tunisia, and the Republic of Yemen, are gradually moving toward greater devolution of powers to lower tiers of government.17 This shift represents an op- portunity to strengthen cities, making them more resilient and increasing their capacity to manage development, and thus support the DRM agenda. This Regional DRM Overview is directed at all DRM stakeholders, but particularly at the MNA Regions’ governments, institutions, and partners. This report aims to broaden the dialogue for a more proactive and collaborative management of risks through taking stock of progress in DRM in MNA and identifying gaps for future interventions. This report builds on the strategic vision, principles, and goals of the MNA Region coun- tries; the Islamic Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction and Management (ISDRRM); the MNA Strategic Framework for Climate Action; and the World Bank’s Strategy Update for MNA. Ongoing and proposed activities aim to scale up existing good practices and continue building DRM capacities in MNA’s disaster-prone countries; and increase their medium-term predictability of programming for DRM, while strengthening the delivery of and accountability for results. 16 World Bank and GFDRR, Sendai Report. 17 UN-HABITAT, The State of Arab Cities. A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 3 Furthermore, this report aims to establish a more strategic and collaborative framework between the World Bank and its international partners, particularly the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) and the United Nations Development Pro- gramme (UNDP), to assist MNA countries’ efforts to shift from disaster response to pro- active risk management. Approaches used to develop the framework may include implementation of probabilistic modeling; risk assessment (using completed studies in Djibouti, Morocco, Lebanon, and the Republic of Yemen) to sensitize authorities and guide vulnerability reduction strategies; financial disaster risk transfer instruments; and leveraging best practices from around the world and within the region (some of these are presented in this report). A regional consultation workshop on the draft version of this report, Natural Disasters in the Middle East and North Africa: A Regional Overview, was held on November 17–18, 2013, in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, under the leadership of the Presidency of Meteorology and Environment (PME).18 The representatives of 14 countries from the MNA Region at- tended the workshop, aiming to update this report, share regional and international DRM practices, and coordinate closely to tackle disaster risk in the region. The workshop was organized by the World Bank and was attended by 50 participants, including inter- national and regional partners such as the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and the Islamic Development Bank (IDB). 18 For more information on the Jeddah workshop, see annex 2. 4 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA I. Overview: Natural Disasters in the Middle East and North Africa Region A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 5 Regional Profile Managing disaster risks is one of the most complex development challenges in MNA. Floods, earthquakes, and droughts represent serious challenges to growth and stability in the region. While around the world, the number of disasters has almost doubled since the 1980s, in MNA, the average number of natural disasters has almost tripled over the same period.19 Approximately 40 million people have been affected by over 350 natural disasters between 1981 and 2010, according to EM-DAT.20 The most frequent disasters in the region are floods, earthquakes, storms, and droughts. Over the last 30 years (1981–2011), floods have been the most recurrent disasters re- corded in EM-DAT, with at least 300 events (53 percent of the total number of disasters), indicating a strong need for early warning systems. Earthquakes account for 24 percent of the total,21 and storms and droughts both account for approximately 10 percent. The low percentage for drought, however, is due to limited data availability. This increase in disasters is mainly due to an increase in exposure and vulnerability across the region. The 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction finds that, although global flood mortality risk has been on the decrease since 2000, in MNA, it is still increasing (figure 1). The percentage of GDP exposed to floods has tripled in the region from 1970–79 to 2000–2009.22 In the Republic of Yemen, cumulative loss in real income over the 5-year period following the 2008 floods in Hadramout was estimated at 180 percent of preflood regional agricultural value added.23 This large increase can be attributed to a growing concentration of assets at risk, particularly in urban areas, and insufficient structural and nonstructural mitigation measures. Flash flooding is also increasing in cities across the region. The number of flash floods and people affected or killed has doubled during the last 10 years. These increases are largely due to the construction of new concrete surfaces that cannot absorb water, in- adequate city drainage systems, and increased settlement in low-lying areas.24 Recent 19 www.emdat.be/database. In EM-DAT, events missing data are indicated with zeros for both number affected and number killed. Dates can also be a source of ambiguity (such as inaccuracies in the case of slow onset disasters such as droughts). 20 www.cred.be. While Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) statistics are some of the most widely cited in disaster-related research, there are a number of known limitations. The quality of the disaster data is largely dependent on reporting systems, the existence of generally accepted standards, collection methodologies, and definitions. The criteria used by CRED to classify an event as a disaster includes: (i) more than 10 people killed; (ii) 100 or more people affected, injured, or made homeless; (iii) significant damage incurred; and (iv) declaration of a state of emergency and/or an appeal for international assistance. Due to very limited data availability, this report uses EM-DAT as the main database. 21 Given the 30-year period (1981–2011) taken into account for this report, the data do not include other previous significant hazards, such as the Agadir (Morocco) earthquake that killed 12,000 people in 1960, or the West Bank earthquake in 1927, with an estimated 300 victims. 22 UNISDR, Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction, 31. 23 Government statistics. 24 World Bank, Adaptation to a Changing Climate in Arab Countries. 6 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Figure 1. Disaster Trend in MNA Region 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Source: WRI. striking examples are the flash floods of Bab-El-Oued in the Algerian capital, which left more than 900 casualties in 2001; or the flash floods that hit Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, in 2009, 2010, and 2011, which were registered as the worst floods in 30 years.25 Flash floods often follow extensive droughts, such as the devastating Djibouti floods in 2004 after a multiyear water stress. This pattern further demonstrates the need for comprehensive ap- proaches to urban development and water resource management. Droughts also have considerable long-term impacts in the MNA Region. The number of people affected by drought in MNA from 1970–2009 totals approximately 38 million.26 In Djibouti, the 2008–11 drought, with its fourth consecutive year of rainfall deficit, affected at least 120,000 people27—50 percent of the rural population. From 2008 to 2011, drought caused economic losses equivalent to 3.9 percent of Djibouti’s GDP per annum. In Syria, in 2010, following a third consecutive year of drought, 1.3 million people were affected, and 800,000 people lost almost all sources of livelihood and are now facing extreme hardship. 25 EM-DAT. 26 L. Abu Swaireh, “Disaster Risk Reduction Global and Regional Context.” 27 This is the official figure of the affected people, even though the government believes that as many as 245,000 could have been affected nationally. There is no hard evidence to back up this figure. A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 7 FIGURE 2. MNA REGION: NUMBER OF DISASTERS, BY DISASTER TYPE, 1980–2006 a. Stacked disasters: See figures 2b,c,d, and e for more details on specific natural hazards’ frequency and number of affected people. Syria Lebanon Malta Tunisia West Bank Jordan Iraq Morocco Iran Kuwait Algeria Bahrain Libya Egypt Qatar UAE Saudi Arabia Oman Aggregate Records in Yemen EM-DAT (1900 - 2011) Storm Djibouti Earthquake Drought Flood Guide to Size (Number of Events) 15 10 5 b. Flood hotspots: Floods are the most frequent disaster occurring in MNA countries. From 1900 to 2011, 213 floods have hit 15 MNA countries, killing almost 19,000 people while affecting 8.6 million others. 8 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA c. Drought hotspots: From 1900 to 2011, 28 drought events have been recorded across nine MNA coun- tries, affecting 44 million people. Drought hazard data are limited given the slow onset nature, lack of a solid definition, and insufficient systems in place for measurement. d. Storm hotspots: Between 1900–2011, more than 20 severe storms have affected the MNA region. The countries most affected have been Iran, Oman, Egypt, and Algeria. According to EM-DAT, more than six storms affected Iran and Oman, and three to six affected Algeria and Egypt. figure 2 continued on next page A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 9 FIGURE 2. CONTINUED e. Earthquake hotspots: From 1900 to 2011, Algeria, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Morocco, and the Republic of Ye- men have been affected by over 100 earthquakes that have killed almost 170,000 people and affected 4.5 million others. Source: EM-DAT (www.emdat.be), 1900–2011. FIGURE 3. AVERAGE NUMBER OF DISASTERS IN THE MNA REGION BY TIME, 1951–2005 45 40 Drought Earthquakes 35 Floods 30 Storms Number of events 25 20 15 10 5 0 1951–60 1961–70 1970–80 1981–90 1991–2000 2001–13 Source: EM-DAT, 1951–2005. 10 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA FIGURE 4. ECONOMIC DAMAGE AND TOTAL NUMBER OF PEOPLE AFFECTED BY DISASTERS IN THE MNA REGION, 1981–2010 Source: EM-DAT, 2012. MNA’s hazard risk is high. Between 1981 and 2010, more than 80 percent of the region’s disaster events occurred in 6 countries: Algeria, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Morocco, and the Republic of Yemen. Djibouti is highly vulnerable to floods, droughts, desertification, and earthquakes, with approximately 33 percent of its population living in high-risk areas, and 35 percent of the economy vulnerable to natural disasters.28 Egypt has faced 23 large disaster events in the last 20 years—floods, earthquakes, and landslides—causing over US$1.3 billion in damages.29 Iran and Algeria are the most vulnerable to seismic hazards. Earthquakes are responsible for 95 percent of total mortality during disasters in Iran.30 Ninety percent of Algeria’s infrastructure and population are located in areas highly exposed to seismic risk. The Republic of Yemen and Morocco face recurrent floods, land- slides, and earthquakes. Figure 4 shows the total number of people affected by disasters in the region from 1981–2010. An increase in the frequency of disasters in less-hazard-prone countries has helped bring the DRM agenda to the forefront of development in the MNA Region. For example, since 2009, Saudi Arabia has suffered flash floods resulting in heavy economic and human loss; in 2007, Oman was impacted by cyclone Gonu; Bahrain has become one of the most 28 World Bank, “Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis.” 29 PreventionWeb: Egypt—Disaster Statistics. 30 EM-DAT, 2011. A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 11 vulnerable countries in terms of climate change and frequent sand and dust storms; and Jordan has developed perennial drought conditions (annex 1). Urban Vulnerability The high concentration of both the region’s population and its economic assets in urban areas is making disasters even more devastating, particularly in coastal areas. Given the MNA Region’s arid, mountainous terrain, rural populations have historically concen- trated in coastal strips, mountain valleys, and along rivers. As a consequence, 3 per- cent of MNA’s surface is home to 92 percent of its population (approximately 352 million people).31 With an average annual population growth rate of about 2.1 percent, MNA has one of the world’s most rapidly expanding populations. The region is approximately 62 percent urbanized, and its urban population is expected to double over the next 3 decades. By 2030, the region will have experienced a 45 percent increase in its urban population, corresponding to over 106 million additional urban inhabitants.32 This rapid urbanization requires the progressive integration of DRM into urban development to limit the creation of new risks. Urbanization and the youth population will continue to increase the demand for housing and urban services, putting pressure on local authorities to expand access to urban land and provide infrastructure. Affordable housing programs and progress made to date will not be sufficient to prevent the proliferation of informal settlements. The high concentra- tion of youth33 in urban areas is also causing informal settlements to expand. In MNA, coastal clustering is exacerbating the effects of natural disasters. Twenty-five to 50 percent of the total populations of Alexandria, Casablanca, Djibouti-Ville, and Tripoli reside in informal settlements. Rapid urbanization, the absence of an integrated urban development strategy, and the lack of local financial and technical resources caused infrastructure backlogs and the inability to meet the growing demand for low-income housing, particularly in the poorer settlements on the outskirts of sprawling cities, mostly due to lack of connections to adequate primary systems. Under these conditions, par- ticularly in North Africa, coastal flooding from increased climate change impacts will continue to threaten the lives of millions of urban residents. Flooding is also a major risk for urban areas. It is often caused by buildings, infrastructure, and paved areas that prevent infiltration and is exacerbated by overwhelmed drain- age systems. The flood that hit Sana’a, Republic of Yemen, in May 2010, is an example. Flooding occurred in low-lying residential areas with inadequate drainage systems, af- fecting hundreds of homes and killing 8 people. Floods have regularly disrupted liveli- hoods and society in MNA cities, mainly because of the limited structural protection, insufficient citywide drainage systems, and informal urbanization of catchment areas. Across the region, nonstructural flood mitigation measures are mostly inadequate; early 31 UN-HABITAT, The State of Arab Cities. 32 Ibid. 33 The MNA population aged 15 to 29 totals almost 130 million, approximately a quarter of the total population. 12 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA warning systems are either only partially functional or have yet to be developed; and emergency plans are not fully operational.34 Climate-Related Hazards Within the region, the synergy of natural hazards, climate change, water scarcity, and food insecurity has emerged as a serious challenge for policy and planning for all coun- tries. Over the past 30 years, climate-related disasters have affected 50 million people in MNA, with a reported cost of US$11.5 billion.35 This figure captures only partial damages, lacks a systematic assessment, and unfortunately does not capture the suffering and recovery costs that follow the loss of lives and livelihoods.36 The effects of climate change are already being felt throughout the region. The year 2010 was the hottest in the region since the 1800s, and 19 countries set new national temperature highs.37 Recent trends in the region show that, in most areas, temperatures have been rising by 0.2–0.3°C per decade. Additionally, climate models, even at the low end of the range, suggest that sea-level rise, as well as the frequency and intensity of natural hazards, will likely increase in MNA. While these trends have affected or will soon affect most of MNA’s population, of major concern are the 100 million poor who have limited resources to adapt. According to the climate projections of the Fourth As- sessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,38 temperatures in MNA will rise by 3–4°C by the end of the century—a significant 1.5 percent faster than the global average. Water scarcity makes the region even more vulnerable. MNA is the most water- scarce region in the world, and its water stress is likely to worsen. In 1950, per capita renewable water resources were 4,000 cubic meters (m3) per year. This figure is cur- rently at 1,100 m3 per year. Projections indicate that per capita renewable water will drop by half, reaching 550 m3 in 2050. These figures are very alarming compared to the global average of 8,900 m3 per person per year today, and about 6,000 m3 per person per year in 2050, when the world’s population will reach more than 9 billion.39 This trend will have serious consequences for the region’s already stressed aquifers and natural hydrological systems. While the socioeconomic impact of climate change is less clear, recent estimates are concerning. Studies show that the long-term implications of climate change in Tunisia, and the Republic of Yemen are likely to lead to a cumulative decrease in household incomes of, respectively, US$1.8 billion (6.8 percent of GDP) and US$5.7 billion (23.9 per- cent of GDP) over the next 30 to 40 years.40 34 This is particularly true in MNA’s low-income countries. For instance, the Gulf Cooperation Countries have more advanced nonstructural systems. 35 EM-DAT, 2010. 36 World Bank, Adaptation to a Changing Climate in Arab Countries. 37 Ibid. 38 IPCC, Climate Change 2007. 39 FAO AQUASTAT (http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/main/index.stm). 40 World Bank, Adaptation to a Changing Climate in Arab Countries. A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 13 FIGURE 5. COMPARISON OF TOTAL NUMBER AND TYPE OF NATURAL HAZARDS IN MNA, 1980–2010 160 140 120 Number of events 100 Storm Flood 80 Earthquake Drought 60 40 20 0 of f ia ti of q an p. t n co an e a sia ya .o ai ou no in Ira bi er Re Lib w p. p. ni rd m oc st ep ra jib lg ba Ku Tu le Re Re O Jo b iA or A ,R D Pa ra Le M b ic ud en A ra am Sa n m A ria Isl Ye t, Sy yp n, Ira Eg Source: EMDAT, 2011. Climate change could make natural disasters more intense and more frequent. Accord- ing to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),41 North Africa is the world’s second most vulnerable region to emerging climate-related risks. Higher seas would compound storm surges, increasing the risks of marine inundation and coastal erosion. During 2010–30, Alexandria, Casablanca, and Tunis individually will face poten- tial cumulative economic losses of US$1 billion from floods, earthquakes, coastal erosion, ground instability, marine inundation, tsunamis, and water scarcity.42 The increased fre- quency of flooding and drought events could expose up to 25 million urban dwellers to floods and droughts. These same climate change effects could lead to a 30–50 percent drop in water availability, exacerbating the existing severe water scarcity. Climate events could also lead to increased internal migration and displacement. Par- ticularly in rural areas, climate shocks and variability often result in losses in income and assets, such as crops and livestock. Poor households’ inability to adjust and recover rap- 41 IPCC, Climate Change 2007. 42 World Bank, Climate Change Adaptation. 14 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Figure 6. MNA Population Density Estimates, 2011 Source: World Bank DECRG. idly results in temporary and sometimes permanent migration, mostly to urban centers. Climatic factors could justify 10–20 percent of rural–urban migration in MNA. Although most migrants’ remittances do not actually reach climate-stricken areas, when they do, such remittances can play an important adaptation role.43 Sea-level rise induced by climate change exacerbates risk to MNA’s coastal cities. Al- though the World Resource Institute’s (WRI) 21st century climate projections carry uncer- tainty, even the most conservative scenario indicates that sea-level rise will exacerbate existing hazard risks for the North African cities. Turn down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must Be Avoided,44 is a recent report com- missioned by the World Bank that summarizes a range of the direct and indirect climatic consequences under the current global path for greenhouse gas emissions. The report shows that extreme heat waves, which without global warming would be expected to occur once every several hundred years, will be experienced during almost all summer months in many regions. However, the effects would not be evenly distributed. The larg- est increases in temperature  would be expected to occur over land and range from 4–10°C. Increases of 6°C or more in average monthly summer temperatures would be expected in the Mediterranean, North Africa, Middle East, and parts of the United States. 43 World Bank, Climate Change Adaptation. 44 World Bank, Turn down the Heat. A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 15 II. Regional Progress DRM Efforts and Remaining Challenges The devastation caused by disasters in MNA has provided opportunities for assessing how risks can be managed. The findings of these assessments have led many MNA gov- ernments to take action to build capacities and institutions to manage risks. The 2011 drought in Djibouti, for example, led the government to undertake a Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) to understand the impact of the drought and to develop a recov- ery framework to build long-term resilience. This framework included creating an emer- gency fund to respond effectively to the drought while establishing cooperation with neighboring drought-affected countries such as Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia. In this rapidly changing environment, the risk management dialogue has deepened, resulting in the strengthening of DRM institutions and the development of policies, action plans, and programs. Disaster risk assessments, early warning systems, risk management laboratories, and knowledge centers have been established. Furthermore, Algeria, Dji- bouti, Egypt, Lebanon, Morocco, and the Republic of Yemen have established DRM units. However, these units often lack technical and financial capacity and/or a man- date to influence policy decisions. Significant efforts have also been made to design and enforce new DRM policies, plans, and legislation. Algeria, Djibouti, Egypt, Lebanon, Morocco, and the Republic of Ye- men are a few of the countries that have designed policies and established DRM units to strengthen coordination. Such achievements should not be underestimated, even though policies and plans have only rarely been based on reliable information from comprehensive multihazard risk assessments. Policies and plans are also not supported by adequate budgets, and implementation is often dependent on donor support. Ad- ditionally, local governments, which play a critical role in DRM, are often not aware of DRM policy changes and lack the know-how to contribute effectively to disaster re- sponse and/or mitigation. Despite the encouraging progress, more needs to be done at regional, national, and lo- cal levels. To date there has been limited cooperation among neighboring MNA coun- tries, notwithstanding their common risks, which often transcend borders. However, both the Islamic and Arab regions have developed DRM/disaster risk reduction (DRR) strate- gies and implementation plans. Within this context, several regional institutions are lead- ing disaster coordination. For example, the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC),45 the League of Arab States (LAS),46 and the Islamic Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (ISESCO) are working to enable countries facing similar disaster risks or af- fected by transboundary disasters to cooperate effectively. Solid systems that would guarantee dialogue, information exchange, and strategic and operational coordination among different administrative levels and across key sectors 45 www.oic-oci.org. 46 www.lasportal.org. 18 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA BOX 1. NATURAL DISASTERS, CONFLICT, AND MIGRATION Natural disasters and conflict are two of the major reasons why some countries remain trapped in poverty. Natural hazards and conflict can undermine social cohesion, create high levels of inse- curity, and hinder residents’ ability to provide for themselves and progress. When a natural hazard strikes a community that is affected by conflict, it tends to exacerbate the pre-existing inequalities and tensions, impacting vulnerable parts of the population in a disproportionate manner. To date, the strategies developed for DRR have largely overlooked the interplay between conflict and natural disasters, even though multiple recent examples have shown higher devastation in areas where these two issues intersect. For instance, extensive literature reported that the 2011 So- mali famine was the product of drought and extended social and political conflict. At the same time, the Horn of Africa region was also food insecure, but only in Somalia was famine declared. Even within the Somali boundaries, the regions most affected by conflict accounted for the larg- est number of deaths and refugees. Natural hazards can, therefore, lead to a disaster situation when combined with pre-existing con- flict. But they can also be the source of the conflict in and of themselves. A natural hazard that hits suddenly, such as flash floods and earthquakes, has a more noticeable impact on people’s lives than a slow advancing drought. Nevertheless, transboundary water scarcity, which is a ma- jor problem in MNA, is increasingly becoming a cause of conflict, leading communities to fight over water-irrigated pastures and forcing people to leave their homes looking for safe access to water. In Darfur, drought was the trigger of a latent dissension—a threat multiplier that led to the displacement of 2 million people, with spillover effects in the neighboring countries taking in the refugees. DRM strategies of the future need to look at the challenging interaction between conflict, natural hazards, and migration. For all the three issues, the underlying solution is reducing the people’s vulnerability. Source: World Bank. have yet to emerge. The effectiveness of public awareness campaigns and formal edu- cation programs has suffered from a lack of clear, long-term strategies and harmoniza- tion of the various objectives pursued across the region. More targeted, hazard- and sector-specific inputs are needed for curricula and training modules and for the identi- fication and activation of local knowledge. In several countries, these targeted inputs include, for example, addressing training needs in safe building techniques. With the exception of some efforts in Dhamar, Republic of Yemen, following the 1982 earthquake, Bam, Iran, following the earthquake in 2003, and Boumerdès, Algeria, after the 2003 earthquake, learning about and applying risk reduction measures too often are pursued in isolation. Disaster risk financing and insurance (DRFI) instruments are not used in MNA countries. However, the World Bank, the IDB, the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), and the International Finance Corporation (IFC) are collaborating in the development of a feasibility study to assess penetration potential of risk financing instruments in MNA countries. A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 19 Few DRM systems have utilized land-use planning and management and influenced investment policies to encourage effective integrated risk management. Instead, differ- ent public and private institutions transform the landscape of metropolitan areas; they push different agendas and operate outside the overall coherent risk management framework. Highlights of Progress at the Regional Level Some progress has been made in DRM at the regional level. For many years, the focus of governments and regional entities has been disaster response, but lately govern- ments are focusing their efforts on preventive risk management. This shift has been driven by both the rise in human and economic losses from natural disasters and the growing understanding that effective DRM could lead to more resilient economies and livelihoods. The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) has contin- ued to promote the campaign, “Making Cities Resilient,” to support cities in managing disaster events. Almost 300 municipalities in the region have joined the campaign—20 percent of the global participation.47 Furthermore, disaster loss databases48 have been established in eight MNA countries, enabling them to collect and analyze disaster data to better assess disaster trends and impacts. Regional DRM is facilitated mainly by intergovernmental organizations such as the OIC, League of Arab States (LAS), and their specialized technical agencies, namely ISESCO; the Arab Organization for Agricultural Development; the Arab Academy for Science, Technology and Maritime Transport (AASTMT); the Arab Center for the Study of Arid Zones and Dry Lands; and the Statistical, Economic and Social Research and Training Center for Islamic Countries (SESRIC). A number of regional initiatives have emerged over the last few years, indicating the rise in importance of DRM in the region. The first is the Arab Cooperation Agreement, which called for the organization of relief operations, approved by the LAS in 1987 and updated in 2009. In 2007, the Arab Ministerial Declaration on Climate Change, draft- ed by the Council of Arab Ministers Responsible for the Environment (CAMRE), called for the integration of DRR into environmental management and climate change ad- aptation policies. Furthermore, in 2008, a draft Arab Protocol on Cooperation was developed to enable immediate response within Arab countries49 and to transfer equipment and expertise in cases of disasters and emergencies. Thereafter, the Re- gional Centre for Risk Reduction (RCDRR) was established as a joint initiative among the AASTMT, UNISDR, and the chair of both Arab and Islamic Bureau of Environment Ministers. In 2010, an Arab Strategy for DRR 2020 was endorsed by the CAMRE, and the Fourth Islamic Conference of Environment Ministers adopted the Islamic Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction and Management (ISDRRM). Subsequently, in 2012, the Fifth Islamic Conference of Environment Ministers adopted an executive work plan to implement the strategy. Also in 2012, the first Arab Conference for Disaster Risk Reduc- 47 www.unisdr.org/campaign/resilientcities. 48 DesInventar is a joint effort of UNISDR, GFDRR, UNDP, UN-ESCWA, and SDC. It has been established in Djibouti, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, and the Republic of Yemen (www.desinventar.net). 49 “Arab countries” refers to the members of the League of Arab States. 20 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA tion, organized by UNISDR, UNDP, the Swiss Agency for Development and Coopera- tion (SDC), and LAS in Jordan, led to the Aqaba Declaration on DRR in Arab Cities. The declaration sets goals and indicators for reducing disaster risks in the region by 2017. Furthermore, UNISDR leads the MNA DRR Network, which aims to continue improving regional coordination. Starting in 2012, the ISDRRM and its associated executive work plan put in place a two- phase, eight-year approach for building regional resilience to disasters. The first phase will focus on: (i) Strengthening DRR capacity in Islamic countries50 (ii) Improving understanding of risks and data access (iii) Advancing regional initiatives for DRR (iv) Promoting disaster risk financing and insurance strategies Helping countries prepare for disasters and strengthen post-disaster response and (v) reconstruction capacity (vi) Laying the foundation for the second phase, which will focus on implementing com- prehensive DRM programs. The ISDRRM aims to provide a harmonizing guideline for building regional resilience to disasters. International institutions are increasingly working together to build disaster and cli- mate resilience in MNA. Since the beginning of the GFDRR-funded DRM program in MNA in 2007, cooperation among the World Bank, the UNDP, UNISDR, the European Union, the Islamic Development Bank, and others has improved considerably. Im- provement is in part demonstrated by the effective completion of the flood PDNA in the Republic of Yemen in 2009, and the drought PDNA in Djibouti in 2011. However, these international actors should build on these encouraging results and continue cooperating with other stakeholders to ensure continued improvement in aid effec- tiveness and coherence. Highlights of Progress at the National Level The following priorities for action are based on the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA), which is the internationally agreed framework for DRR offering a practical guide and principles for building disaster resilience (figure 7). These HFA priorities aim to reduce disaster losses at national and community levels. Overall, since the establishment of the HFA in 2005, most MNA countries have obtained institutional commitment with- 50 “Islamic countries” refers to: Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Benin, Brunei-Darus- salam, Cameroon, Chad, Côte d’Ivoire, Djibouti, Egypt, Gabon, The Gambia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Guyana, In- donesia, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Kyrgyz Republic, Lebanon, Libya, Malaysia, Maldives, Mali, Maurita- nia, Morocco, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Suriname, Syria, Tajikistan, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, the Comoros, the United Arab Emirates, Upper Volta, Uzbekistan, and the Republic of Yemen. A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 21 BOX 2. INTEGRATED RISK MANAGEMENT IN MOROCCO In 2008, Morocco requested assistance from the World Bank to manage its exposure to risks that have the potential to significantly impact its budget and severely affect local communities, liveli- hoods, and social stability. These risks were prioritized by the government as: (i) commodity price volatility, (ii) natural disaster risk, and (iii) risk in the agricultural sector. This initiative, National Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Strategy in Morocco, looks at sever- al types of risks simultaneously to provide a comprehensive analysis of risk management for a middle-income country, such as Mo- rocco. Hence, a large number of part- ners came together in a truly “integrat- ed” approach to provide nonlending technical assistance amounting to ap- proximately US$2 million—including the World Bank and a government team with different specialties, with funding and technical assistance from GFDRR, the Swiss Cooperation, the First Initiative, and the Trust Fund for Environmentally Destruction during Al-Hoceima earthquake, 2004 and Socially Sustainable Development (TFESSD). Other partners include the German Agency for International Cooperation (GIZ), the Morocco Red Crescent Society, and UN agencies. The project has three components: (i) Commodity price volatility—Review of existing financial mechanisms that contribute to man- aging commodity price volatility in Morocco and the ability of the government to engage in a call option strategy to reduce Morocco’s exposure to oil price volatility. (ii) Natural disaster risk— National probabilistic risk assessment—Provide a national probabilistic risk assessment (a) (tsunami, earthquake, flood, landslide, and drought) that will lay the foundation for the preparation of a comprehensive national disaster risk prevention and management strat- egy and related investment to reduce Morocco’s exposure to these hazard risks. Community-based DRR—The team is working with the Ministry of Interior to design com- (b) munity-level resilience plans based on field surveys of risk perception to be integrated into the Community Development Plans of 2015. Assessment of catastrophic risk insurance—The World Bank is working with the Depart- (c) ment of Insurance and Social Protection of the Ministry of Finance, which has produced a draft law on catastrophic risk prepared by the Ministry of Finance and the Moroccan insurance sector. (iii) Risk in the agricultural sector—The Ministry of Agriculture and Marine Fishery initiated a study to assess the potential risks affecting the agricultural sector to identify those that could be transferred to the insurance sector. Currently, one multirisk insurance product is available, and other insurance products to cover livestock and perennial crops are being developed. Some important pieces of quantitative analysis were conducted over this period that reveal, for example, that Morocco is one of the countries most vulnerable to natural hazards in the MNA region. The national probabilistic risk assessment shows that over 30 percent of the Moroccan population and 33 percent of its GDP are at risk from two or more natural hazards, and the coun- try suffers an average annual loss of over US$650 million from natural hazards. continued on next page 22 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA BOX 2. CONTINUED Given the magnitude of risks faced by Morocco, the government is now engaging in a long-term integrated risk management project with the World Bank. The program aims to increase aware- ness of risks at all levels and apply integrated solutions to risk management, while embedding the concept in the policy-making apparatus of the government, with a focus on prevention and building resilience. Source: Comprehensive Disaster Risk Management Program in Morocco, GFDRR. Figure 7. Hyogo Framework for Action Pillars Regional Level I. Institutional Capacity Building, Education, and Knowledge Sharing Institutional strengthening & capacity building II. Risk Identification Hazard & risk III. Risk IV. Risk V. Response, Education assessments Reduction Financing and Recovery, and Transfer Reconstruction Structural & nonstructural Response, Knowledge Decision systems mitigation Risk financing recovery, and sharing measures reconstruction National & Local Levels Source: GFDRR and HFA. out major achievements.51 However, there have been five main progress drivers: (i) governments are increasingly taking a multihazard approach to DRR; (ii) gender is becoming recognized as a decisive factor; (iii) capacity development is recognized as a central element in reducing disaster risk; (iv) the socially and economically vul- nerable are the most exposed; and (v) effective DRR requires strong community en- gagement. The following pillars were chosen based on the MNA countries’ HFA focus, given that most governments have been reporting on their DRM progress in achieving the HFA objectives. Nevertheless, the World Bank is also taking into account the principles high- lighted by the GFDRR Pillars (figure 10) in the Sendai Report in 2012, which focus more on the DRM tools available rather than the outcomes. 51 Implementation of the HFA—Summary of Reports (2007–13), www.unisdr.org/we/inform/publications/32916. A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 23 Pillar I. Institutional Capacity Building, Education, and Knowledge Sharing Political commitment: Leaders have demonstrated political commitment to DRM in several ways, including the approval of regional and national strategies. Following the devastating urban floods of 2009 and 2010, Saudi Arabia, in partnership with the World Bank, has been developing a comprehensive national risk assessment to reduce future impacts of natural hazards. In Morocco, similarly to Tunisia, the government is working to develop and employ state-of-the-art tools to better measure, manage, and finance several of its key risks. These range from commodity price volatility to natural disaster risks and risks in the agricultural sector (box 2). Some government commitment has improved at the local level as well. For example, in 2013, nine Arab cities reported for the first time on their progress and challenges in reducing disaster risk, using UNISDR’s new Local Gov- ernment Self-Assessment Tool.52 However, while DRM is beginning to receive attention from decision makers, these encouraging initiatives remain isolated. Frameworks: Given the region’s high exposure to natural hazards, there is increasing agreement that hazard risks need to be addressed more strategically and systematical- ly. The growing attention to DRM is also the result of the increasing alignment of national policy to the HFA, which brings together international stakeholders around a common coordinated system to take action and track progress in reducing the loss of lives and social, economic, and environmental assets by 2015.53 Nevertheless, no MNA country yet has established a comprehensive national DRM framework. Institutional arrangements: Many MNA countries have established national focal bodies for coordinating DRM activities in line with ministries or departments. Most of the time, these bodies are anchored in ministries of interior and environment, with the latter being responsible for sustainable development issues. Coordination mechanisms: National coordination mechanisms exist in the form of na- tional committees in multiple countries including Algeria, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Morocco, and the Republic of Yemen.54 The purpose of these bodies is to establish nationally owned and led multistakeholder forums on DRR and to serve as an advisory group on key priority areas requiring concerted action. Policies: A number of DRM policies have been put in place in the region. In Algeria, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Morocco and the Republic of Yemen, DRM policies either have been developed or are being updated and/or developed. Other countries, including Jordan and Saudi Arabia, have begun the process, with technical support from GFDRR and other donors. Integration of DRM into development plans: Although there are a few examples in the region, DRM has yet to be successfully integrated into country development planning processes. However, since 2010 in Djibouti, DRM has been integrated into the National Initiative for Social Solidarity, which is the country’s main development plan. The docu- ment identifies key DRM and climate change adaptation (CCA) interventions, including 52 The cities were Aqaba (Jordan), Byblos (Lebanon), Choueifat (Lebanon), Dubai (United Arab Emirates), Tevragh Zeina (Mauritania), Petra (Jordan), Saida (Lebanon), Tyre Union Municipalities (Lebanon), and Tripoli (Lebanon). 53 The HFA is a 10-year plan to make the world safer from natural hazards. It was adopted by 168 member states of the United Nations in 2005 at the World Disaster Reduction Conference. 54 In Djibouti and the Republic of Yemen, these committees are not fully operational. 24 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA water management, climate monitoring, and community preparedness as key develop- ment priorities. Morocco is also integrating DRM into its community development plans. DRM mainstreaming in educational modules: The AASTMT, through its Regional Center for DRR, has developed a DRM e-learning laboratory through which it has been provid- ing DRM distance learning to MNA countries since 2010. Additionally, in early 2012, the University of Djibouti started providing quarterly DRM e-learning nationwide (through its distance education center). DRM modules also have been integrated into university cur- ricula in both Djibouti and Lebanon. In Jordan, more than 2,000 officials have received training in DRR. South–South knowledge exchange: To share DRM best practices, 3 South–South ex- changes were organized in 2012–13. One consisted of a study tour of a Djibouti techni- cal delegation to experience firsthand how Kenya and Mozambique have streamlined drought and flood management at the community level, with a strong focus on resilient agriculture. The second exchange involved Algiers (Algeria) and Jakarta (Indonesia) city-level officials, who exchanged views on mainstreaming DRM considerations in urban development planning. The discussion revolved around key challenges and opportuni- ties identified, and the lessons learned to better manage DRM at the city level with large urban populations at risk. The third cooperation enabled the Moroccan and Vietnamese authorities to exchange their experiences in flood management at the community level. Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs): Djibouti and the Republic of Yemen are good examples of progressive integration of DRM into their development strategies. In Djibouti, since 2010, the government has recognized55 the need to address disaster response and mitigation. Through GFDRR grants, Djibouti has completed and expanded its national DRM action plans, early warning system, drought early warning system, hydro-meteo- rological stations network, and risk assessment and communication platform. In the Re- public of Yemen, the government is prioritizing the shift from disaster response to more proactive multisectoral disaster mitigation by implementing the recommendations of the 3 comprehensive hazard risk assessments completed in 2010. Key activities will include: establishment of a national DRM fund and decision-support system (decree for its es- tablishment was approved by the government in June 2012) for disaster preparedness, response, and reconstruction; bringing online of the five civil defense operational rooms; and establishment of a flood early warning system to enable effective disaster response. Country Assistance Strategies (CASs) and Country Partnership Strategies (CPSs): The second pillar of Algeria’s CAS is dedicated to DRM and environmental sustainability. Other CPSs, for example, Morocco’s, acknowledge the impact of disasters and climate change while recognizing that vulnerability to climate change and natural disaster risks can pose a threat to the country’s high-value assets in critical sectors in urban areas. Although no concrete mitigation and adaptation activities have been initiated, the gov- ernment of Morocco is trying to raise awareness of climate change while strengthening coordination within DRM and CCA departments and agencies. United Nations Development Assistance Framework (UNDAF): The latest UNDAFs for nine of the MNA countries make explicit references to DRM and disaster prevention,56 as well 55 Since 2009, the Djibouti government has replaced the PRSP with the National Initiative for Social Development. 56 Algeria, Djibouti, Iraq, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, and Tunisia. A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 25 BOX 3. REDUCING AND AVOIDING RISK: MUNICIPAL DEVELOPMENT AND FLOOD PROTECTION IN THE REPUBLIC OF YEMEN The city of Taiz and its surroundings have suffered severe flash flooding over the last two decades. Through the World Bank–financed Municipal Development and Flood Protection Project, major parts of Taiz, including downtown, were transformed into habitable and flash flood–secure neigh- borhoods. The project’s impact on the lives and livelihoods of the people in Taiz is substantial. The structures built under the successive phases include 10 km of open channel, 21 km of covered channel, 85 km of stone and asphalt paved roads, 54 km of sewer line, 21 sedimentation traps, and 3.2 km of above-street-level retaining walls. Among many other benefits, the project contrib- uted to lowering the number of deaths from flooding from an average of six people a year over the last decade to zero since project implementation. Source: World Bank and GFDRR, Sendai Report. as to CCA. UNISDR supported UN country teams to ensure mainstreaming of DRR into the planning documents. Most of the proposed activities focus on improving capacities and raising awareness among the population. Algeria, Iraq, and Morocco emphasize fighting drought and desertification, while in Djibouti, the resulting food insecurity is also a major concern. Jordan’s and Morocco’s UNDAFs advocate for green growth, and the Republic of Yemen’s promotes building resilience to natural hazards at the community level. Awareness and capacity building: Overall, the World Bank has provided programmatic capacity-building support resulting in considerable progress in raising DRM awareness among all stakeholders. In Djibouti and the Republic of Yemen, for instance, since 2008, periodic DRM, DRR, and CCA trainings have been organized collaboratively with UNDP, ministries responsible for DRM, and international partners. The same agencies have all participated in periodic international training and have shared their experiences with other regional DRM actors. Additionally, online DRM platforms and courses were trans- ferred from the World Bank to the RCDRR in 2010 and to the University of Djibouti in 2012, enabling both institutions to successfully offer periodic DRM e-learning in English and French across the region, training at least 300 technical staff from MNA. The University of Djibouti also has a program to mainstream DRM modules in university courses such as engineering and geography. Institutional development: To build stronger institutions for DRM, new types of training, including international seminars, South–South exchanges, and e-learning courses have been provided to policy makers, practitioners, and academics. However, no assessment has been conducted to determine what types of capacities need to be strengthened and how to translate these trainings into policy change. In particular, institutional capac- ity needs to be developed while remembering that: • Different skills needed for different aspects of DRM. In MNA, in many ways, DRM is still equated with emergency management. The identification of capacity devel- opment for preparedness, response, reconstruction, and long-term planning by the- matic area and sub-specialization needs has yet to take place. 26 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA • No assessment of skills offered. The most common risk reduction activity in MNA is training offered within and outside the region. However, assessment of training qual- ity, including assessment of skills obtained, used, and retained, particularly to deter- mine the gaps, needs to be carried out more systematically. • Insufficient dedicated resources and systems for capacity building. Dedicated bud- gets and systematic national and local initiatives to build DRM capacity are limited. Countries require long-term skills development rather than one-off, project-driven in- terventions that may restrict the type of skills development to those based on project objectives. • Capacity retention and skills updating. Processes for the retention of capacity and skills updating need to be strengthened. In disaster reconstruction, for example, stakeholders develop technical capacities that most often are not well retained after project completion. Government staff involved in reconstruction are either absorbed into parent agencies or transitioned to other government jobs. • Stronger DRM coordination. An effective centralized coordinating office or agency for DRM can ensure that action is taken throughout line ministries and the govern- ment. Such coordination is often very effective if linked directly to the office of the prime minister. DRM agenda not sufficiently decentralized: Most DRM activities continue to be conduct- ed at the national level. However, in Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia and the Republic of Yemen, a slow but progressive decentralization has begun. In Morocco, community DRM activities (community maps, training on construction standards, and community early warning systems) are being developed at the local level. Community DRM is particu- larly important because disasters often significantly impact communities, which there- fore need to be empowered to manage risk. The 2012 Sendai Report57 shows that an effective DRM strategy requires a decentralized approach and an appropriate division of resources (human and financial) at all tiers of government. At the local level, not only do city managers have a key role to play, but also civil society organizations can sig- nificantly contribute to building local resilience. As noted earlier, MNA countries are still among the most centralized in the world, with some of the lowest total local government expenditures (ranging from 3 percent in Jordan, 8 percent in Iran, and 18 percent in Egypt compared to the world average of about 22 percent). Nevertheless, several countries in the region are progressively moving toward greater devolution of powers to lower tiers of government. This shift represents an opportunity to strengthen cities and their capacity to manage development, and thus support the DRM agenda. City managers can imple- ment a combination of structural and nonstructural measures to address urban flood risks in an integrated manner, not only tackling today’s risks, but longer-term issues due to climate change, as was done in Sana’a, Yemen, and Tripoli, Lebanon (boxes 3 and 8). Pillar II. Risk Identification Risk information: The provision of risk information is the first crucial step of any DRM program and a precondition for effective identification of risk accompanied by the 57 World Bank and GFDRR, Sendai Report. A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 27 appropriate interventions. The level of understanding of risks based on risk assess- ments in the MNA Region is generally low and needs to be strengthened. Follow- ing requests from national and local governments in MNA, the World Bank assisted in conducting hazard and risk assessments in Djibouti, Lebanon (Tripoli58), Morocco, and the Republic of Yemen, with upcoming assessments in Saudi Arabia. There are also some international initiatives such as the Global Earthquake Model, which de- velops earthquake risk models for countries including Algeria and Egypt, although significant data gaps exist in risk information. Basic components of risk assessments include historical events, hazard maps, and information on infrastructure character- istics, administrative boundaries, and census data, which are often difficult to obtain. Hydro-meteorological and geological data are very limited throughout the region. Additionally, a geospatial map of residential and public assets is seldom available or comprehensive. Integration of DRM with the climate change agenda: Although the climate change and DRM agendas are highly intertwined, they have not often been dealt with in a mutually reinforcing manner. However, encouraging efforts for their integration have been under- taken in North Africa (Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia) through the GFDRR-funded Climate Change Adaptation and Natural Disasters Preparedness in the Coastal Cities of North Af- rica study (completed in 2011).59 This report has enabled identification and prioritization of city-level CCA and DRM investments while building local awareness of climate and hazard risk. Other examples in which CCA and DRM have come together are in Egypt, through its CCA strategy (launched in 2012), and in the Republic of Yemen, through its Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR). PPCR aims to expand the national climate data system to help operationalize weather forecasting, data management, and early warning systems. Furthermore, to better integrate the climate adaptation debate into DRM, in 2012 the re- gion launched a 10-year Arab Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction. This strategy included the reduction of climate change impacts and disaster losses through identification of strategic priorities; enhancement of coordination mechanisms; and monitoring at the national, regional, and local levels. Hazard and climate data: Meteorological stations’ coverage is not uniform across MNA countries, thus potentially hindering their ability to effectively predict and communicate hydro-meteorological events (figure 8). Numerous meteorological stations exist along the Nile and the coast of the Mediterranean Sea. However, in the less inhabited areas, coverage is very limited. Sparse data are available for countries and economies, includ- ing Djibouti, Libya, Saudi Arabia, West Bank and Gaza, and the Republic of Yemen. For other countries, including Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt and Iraq, data are probably available but not readily accessible. Moving forward, the establishment and/or replacement of observation sites and automatic weather station monitoring will be necessary to build more rigorous weather forecasting and modeling systems.60 58 The risk assessment performed in Tripoli, Lebanon, was not a comprehensive hazard risk assessment, but rather a rapid hazard risk assessment, including a hazard inventory compiling all the relevant data and studies performed. 59 World Bank, Climate Change Adaptation and Natural Disasters Preparedness in the Coastal Cities of North Africa. 60 World Bank, Adaptation to a Changing Climate in Arab Countries. 28 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA FIGURE 8. SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF MONTHLY STATIONS WITH AT LEAST 10 YEARS OF DATA Source: World Bank, Adaptation to a Changing Climate in Arab Countries. Pillar III. Risk Reduction From disaster response to risk reduction: Several MNA countries have progressed in this area, shifting focus from disaster response to risk reduction. This shift can be attributed to their commitment to HFA objectives. This policy shift varies from country to country, depending on each country’s governance capacity and socioeconomic parameters. Djibouti, Egypt, Morocco, and the Republic of Yemen have made significant progress in shifting from post-disaster relief to disaster preparedness, mitigation, and risk reduction. For example, in Morocco, the government is considering investing in risk reduction infra- structure such as constructing dams in flood-prone areas and retrofitting schools and key public assets in seismic areas based on identified risk zones. In the city of Taiz, Republic of Yemen, through successive International Development Association (IDA) financing of US$16 million, US$45 million, and US$20 million, flood-control structures were built that have significantly reduced residents vulnerability, improved their health, and increased land values (box 3). Building codes: Several MNA countries, including the most earthquake prone—Algeria, Iran and the Republic of Yemen—have incorporated standards and codes for construc- tion practices relating to structural safety from natural hazards, in addition to zoning guidelines such as buffer zones in coastal belts. However, the biggest difficulty for MNA countries concerns the enforcement of codes and regulations arising from complex land tenure conditions and the lack of clearly designated authority and ability to impose sanctions. Furthermore, there is a general perception that adding disaster resilient fea- tures into structural design may be costly and ineffective. Another challenge lies in moni- toring construction quality and in ensuring compliance with the prescribed norms. The A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 29 latter is aggravated by the unavailability of comprehensive and specific checklists for disaster impact assessment. Pillar IV. Risk Financing and Transfer Budgets: Although some contingency funds exist for emergency response in Djibouti, Morocco, and the Republic of Yemen, most countries do not systematically allocate budgets for DRM or relief operations. These funding mechanisms are established in the aftermath of a disaster, and tend to dissipate as memory of the disaster fades. Given the multisectoral nature of hazard risks, an innovative concept of combining fi- nancing solutions for risks was developed in early 2010, when the Yemeni government decided to establish a single mechanism for risk management under the Prime Minister’s Office. This mechanism is expected to function as a “one-stop shop” for the execution of government- and donor-funded risk management, whether these risks arise from natural hazards, climate change, food security, or water scarcity. Risk financing:61 The penetration of risk financing in the region has been relatively weak. However, many countries are finding it increasingly difficult to finance disas- ter recovery and reconstruction from government budgets. While appropriations are sometimes made for emergencies, actual budgetary outlays on such events often end up being well in excess of budgeted amounts and result in reallocations or in- creasing country deficits through borrowing. In Morocco, for example, the govern- ment is contemplating a law to add a compulsory guarantee against catastrophe risk to property insurance policies. This law would use risk-based pricing to increase coverage of private assets against disasters, thus indirectly reducing GoM’s contin- gent liability. This law would follow international best practices in which governments are working to reduce their contingent liabilities for natural disasters. In Indonesia, the government is drafting a disaster-risk-financing strategy to ensure that funds can be immediately accessed after a disaster. Numerous other regions such as the members of Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), southeastern Europe and the Cau- casus, and the Caribbean Islands are increasing their economic integration by lever- aging regional solidarity for risk pooling and by creating new investment opportunities for investor states through disaster risk financing and insurance. Pillar V. Response, Recovery, and Reconstruction Institutional arrangements: Institutional planning for DRM is still focused on emergen- cy response. Most MNA countries manage DRM through a stand-alone coordinating agency that is responsible for coordinating risk profiling and mapping, supporting the development of policy and legislative documents, and leading preparedness and response planning. These agencies normally lack the know-how to perform all these tasks effectively, and do not have the political authority to influence policy decisions. Countries with effective DRM programs, such as Colombia, generally have special- ized agencies with considerable political influence, often within the ministries of plan- ning or finance. 61 For more information on disaster risk financing and insurance, see GFDRR: www.gfdrr.org/node/272. 30 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA World Bank instruments to assist MNA countries in emergency response: The Crisis Re- sponse Window (CRW) is a specific IDA funding window for concessional assistance for post-disaster recovery and reconstruction. This funding is in addition to IDA’s country allocations. Piloted in 2009, the CRW was first triggered in response to the Horn of Africa Drought in 2011, which included Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia. In Djibouti, the CRW enabled the mobilization of US$13.2 million (box 4) for productive safety nets, water mobilization, and energy security. BOX 4. DJIBOUTI DROUGHT POST-DISASTER NEEDS ASSESSMENT • In 2011, the World Bank, the European Union, and the United Nations supported Djibouti in developing a Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) as a response to the unprecedented period of drought. The assessment concluded that, during 2008–11, the drought in Djibouti negatively affected more than 120,000 malnourished, food-insecure, and already vulnerable rural poor. The number of refugees entering Djibouti, particularly from Somalia, increased considerably, from 395 per month in May 2011 to 875 in August. Half of the refugees inter- viewed explained that the drought was the main reason for their migration. • The estimated economic losses from the drought totaled approximately 3.9 percent of GDP annually between 2008 and 2011. The largest damage and losses were in the agriculture, livestock, water and sanitation sectors, amounting to a cumulative US$96 million. Agricultural production and livestock losses due to the drought led to severe food insecurity in rural areas, causing a 25 percent reduction in food consumption and 50 percent decrease in the con- sumption of goods and services (education, health, and kerosene). • Because of 80 percent less rainfall since 2007, the aquifers, the only source of water for Dji- bouti-ville, suffered a reduction in recharge equivalent to four years of water supply. The result was an overall drawdown of the water table and a severe increase in its salinity—by 40 percent. During the four years of drought, 100 percent of the traditional wells and 80 percent of the community wells in Djibouti were temporarily or permanently out of order due to water shortage or poor water quality, resulting in increased salinity in aquifers and other types of contaminations. • The total identified need for drought and other hazard mitigation interventions for the next five years totals US$318 million. • The process of integrating the findings of the PDNA is currently underway, however, an initial mobilization of US$13.2 million from the World Bank’s Crisis Response Window (CRW) has been completed and it seeks to: (i) scale up safety nets in the country (US$5 million); (ii) expand the Rural Community Development and Water Mobilization Project to strengthen community resilience (US$3 million); and (iii) expand the Power Access and Diversification Project by en- hancing water pumping and access to energy fuels (US$5.3 million). Source: GFDRR, Djibouti PDNA, 2011. A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 31 III. World Bank Disaster Risk Management Programming in the MNA Region World Bank Programming for Recovery and Risk Reduction Since its inception, the World Bank has been involved in financing post-disaster recon- struction projects. Between 1984 and 2011, the World Bank approved more than US$36 billion in activities to build disaster resilience in 118 countries around the world. In the last 10 years alone (2002–11), the Bank approved almost US$18 billion in activities toward these types of activities to help protect the lives and livelihoods of people in 92 countries (boxes 5 and 6). In the MNA Region, the World Bank financed several post-disaster recovery and recon- struction projects, including: • Djibouti Flood Emergency Rehabilitation Project (US$6.5 million, 2004); • Yemen Flood Protection and Emergency Reconstruction Project (US$41 million, 2008); • Bam, Iran Earthquake Emergency Reconstruction Project (US$220 million, 2003); • Djibouti Employment and Human Capital Safety Net Project (US$5 million, 2012); • Djibouti Rural Community Development and Water Mobilization (US$3 million, 2012); and • Djibouti Power Access and Diversification (US$5.2 million, 2012). World Bank disaster reconstruction experiences in MNA have aimed to increase com- munity resilience to future disasters. This work has included providing communities with safety nets, access to information, resources, and the opportunities and capacity to not only rebuild their lives at a moment when they are most vulnerable, but also increase their resilience to future risks. Many such interventions have helped safeguard commu- nities and protect them from adopting adverse coping mechanisms that could have resulted in greater risk exposure. In the Republic of Yemen, the Taiz Municipal Develop- ment and Flood Protection Project launched in 2001 protected residents, economic ac- tivity, and infrastructure from the destructive effects of seasonal flooding, while restoring access to critical road infrastructure damaged by the disaster. For the World Bank, recovery projects have been an opportunity to integrate DRR prin- ciples into the entire recovery process to reduce exposure to future hazard threats that communities may face. Disaster mitigation initiatives include activities conducted before disaster events oc- cur to reduce the potential impacts of hazards. These activities include preparedness and predisaster recovery planning; and structural and nonstructural interventions such as structural design, building codes, land-use planning, early warning systems, evacua- tion plans, public education, and emergency response. In this context, the World Bank is working with Algeria, Djibouti, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, and the Republic of Yemen to 34 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA BOX 5. WORLD BANK RECOVERY & RISK REDUCTION INITIATIVES Yemen flood protection: Successive projects in the Republic of Yemen have built flood resilience across the country (1990, Taiz Municipal Development and Flood Protection Project, US$20 mil- lion; 1990 and 1997, Emergency Flood Rehabilitation Projects, US$10 million and US$30 million; 2008, Flood Protection and Emergency Reconstruction Project, US$41 million). These projects have helped repair and retrofit damaged infrastructure and restore the country’s economic infrastruc- ture and domestic food production capability. Additionally, they have facilitated access to pro- duction centers, markets, and social services while serving as a catalyst for donor financing and coordination of the reconstruction effort, including the creation of the Hadramout Reconstruction and Recovery Fund, which leveraged over US$200 million from national, regional, and interna- tional donors. Bam Earthquake Reconstruction, Iran: In 2003, a US$220 million Bam Earthquake Emergency Re- construction Project helped restore the living conditions of communities affected by the earth- quake and improved emergency preparedness in the province of Kerman and the city of Bam. The World Bank later financed a US$180 million Earthquake Emergency Recovery Project to re- lieve socioeconomic hardships caused by the earthquake. Flood Emergency Rehabilitation Project, Djibouti: The World Bank, the U.S. Agency for Internation- al Development (USAID), and the European Union responded to the April 2004 floods in Djibouti with a US$6.5 million Emergency Assistance Program focused on the immediate rehabilitation and reconstruction of damaged economic and social infrastructure, as well as the establishment of a preliminary siren system in the Ambouli dyke. Source: World Bank database, 2011. BOX 6. YEMEN FLOODS POST-DISASTER NEEDS ASSESSMENT In response to torrential floods in the governorates of Hadramout and Al-Mahara, Yemen, in 2008, the World Bank conducted a Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) in partnership with the UNDP and the European Union, under the leadership of Yemen’s Ministry of International Cooperation and Development and Ministry of Public Works and Highways. The PDNA formed the basis for the development of the Yemen Flood Protection and Emergency Reconstruction Project (US$41 million), which was instrumental in supporting rehabilitation and rebuilding of critical damaged infrastructure. The PDNA catalyzed multisectoral national debate on DRM, resulting in the launch of national, governorate, and city-level probabilistic risk assessments and water management studies (US$1.4 million, funded by GFDRR). These studies provided the basis for the design of com- prehensive DRM planning and mitigation measures in the country. Source: GFDRR, Yemen PDNA, 2009. A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 35 identify priority actions for disaster mitigation through the completion and implementa- tion of a comprehensive probabilistic risk assessment. These assessments are to be fol- lowed by development and implementation of national DRM programs. Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery Since 2007, GFDRR62 has provided financial and technical support to the MNA Region to launch DRM activities in Djibouti, Lebanon, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, and the Republic of Yemen. GFDRR piloted hazard risk management plans in the city development strategy process and promoted manageable emergency response strategies at the city level in Sana’a (Republic of Yemen) and Tripoli (Lebanon). GFDRR supported the development of risk mapping and DRM institutional assessments in Djibouti, and the development of a national disaster risk management strategy for agriculture and an integrated drought management strategy in Morocco. Over the years, this engagement has spread to 26 projects in 13 countries with a strong emphasis on DRM institutional capacity building, risk assessment, and risk communication. GFDRR has also sought to increase the impact of its operations by deepening engage- ment in two priority countries (chosen by GFDRR donors) in the region: Djibouti and the Republic of Yemen, both highly prone to disasters and likely impacts of climate change. Efforts in these countries have been focused on developing a comprehensive program for DRM and CCA. The Republic of Yemen In the Republic of Yemen, GFDRR’s ongoing activities include disaster risk assessment studies, capacity-building programs, and PDNAs. GFDRR recently conducted an assess- ment of Yemen’s Fund for Disaster Reconstruction in Hadramout and Al-Mahara, and dialogue is underway for the establishment of a permanent financing mechanism to address disaster risks in the country. The DRM Country Program outlines a five-year work plan with two objectives: (i): to strengthen Yemen’s institutional capacity for planning, coordinating, implementing, and monitoring disaster risk assessment and risk reduction activities, including the establishment of early warning systems at national, governorate, and community levels; and (ii) to jump start the implementation of a national civil works program for reducing flood risks. In 2008, a PDNA was launched after the floods in Al- Mahara and Hadramout governorates, with technical support from GFDRR (box 6). In terms of CCA programming, the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) is be- ing implemented in the Republic of Yemen. A major component of the PPCR is the modernization of Yemen’s climate data system, which includes increasing the number and improving the operation of hydro-meteorological stations; improving hydrological, weather, and climate information management systems; and improving delivery of such information and services. The Strategic Program for Climate Resilience (SPCR) has also been endorsed. Its expected outcomes by 2015 include: 62 www.gfdrr.org. 36 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (i) Building climatic resilience and adaptation capacity into the water and agricultural sectors as well as in coastal zones; (ii) Improving food security by improving resilience of both the water and agriculture sectors; (iii) Augmenting current agricultural production planning that does not account for fu- ture climate change; and (iv) Improving sustainability of irrigated agriculture by resolving the groundwater regula- tion problem. To ensure effective implementation of the DRM and PPCR programs, and thanks to fi- nancial support from GFDRR, in December 2013, the World Bank hired a local disaster risk management specialist. Djibouti Since 2007, GFDRR has assisted Djibouti in assessing and documenting its disaster vulner- abilities, while improving the country’s capacity. Since then, a comprehensive risk as- sessment and communication platform has been established that has brought together seven national agencies. GFDRR support has catalyzed greater national attention to di- saster risk management as a tool for development, paving the way for the development of the comprehensive DRM program, Natural Disaster Risk Assessment and Monitoring System (CARAD). The CARAD is a US$2.4 million program that integrates risk and vulner- ability information to facilitate decision making. The Low Regret Climate Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction Options in the Republic of Djibouti program was also implement- ed to strengthen national capacities for analysis and communication of hazard risk and climate change information among vulnerable communities. As part of this technical assistance, a South–South cooperation among Djibouti, Kenya, and Mozambique was completed in December 2012 to enable these countries to exchange best practices on drought-resilient agriculture, flood management, and CCA. The creation of the Djibouti Center for Research Studies (CERD) Laboratory for Risk Man- agement also stemmed from the GFDRR Djibouti country program. Funded by the gov- ernment of Djibouti, the establishment of this laboratory demonstrates strong commit- ment to providing an integrated scientific and technical approach to risk management. Other countries In 2008, Morocco requested assistance from the World Bank to manage its exposure to risks. The government prioritized them as: (i) commodity price volatility, (ii) natural disas- ter risk, and (iii) agricultural sector risks. The project that resulted from this request is one of the most innovative global projects today, and looks at risks in an “integrated” frame- work (box 2). In Egypt, GFDRR has supported capacity building in PDNA and risk assessment training and has conducted an institutional assessment of all DRM stakeholders at the national level. A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 37 Figure 9. Sea-Level Rise Projections Source: WRI. In Saudi Arabia, the National Hazard Risk Assessment is expected to start in early 2014 and provide a qualitative and quantitative overview of the main hazard risks in the country, an urban vulnerability study, and a comprehensive institutional analysis. The Saudi Presi- dency of Meteorology and Environment will lead the risk assessment in partnership with the King’s Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology (KACST) and other DRM-related national institutions. In Tripoli, Lebanon, a qualitative urban risk profile was completed in early 2012 by the Municipality of Tripoli, in partnership with the Lebanon DRM Center (box 7). The study is forming the foundation from which to start integrating DRM into urban development. In Algeria, an urban risk and vulnerability assessment was launched in Algiers in 2012, led by the Marseille Center for Mediterranean Integration (CMI), jointly financed by the World Bank and France’s Caisse des Dépôts et Consignations (CDC). The study identified climate variability, coastal erosion, river flooding, landslides, and earthquakes as the ma- jor hazard risks for the city, combined with the vulnerability posed by informal housing. The assessment does not claim to be exhaustive, but provides the local authorities with technical and economic recommendations to include in city planning (box 7). 38 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA BOX 7. ALGERIA AND LEBANON INTEGRATE DRM INTO THEIR HIGH-LEVEL AGENDAS While each country has a unique DRR context, Algeria’s and Lebanon’s drivers of national progress in DRR serve as a useful reminder of the universal importance of certain preconditions to succeed in reducing risks. In both countries, two critical factors explain their improvements in DRR: political will and institutional capacities, and international partnerships. In Algeria, political commitment began in the aftermath of the 1980 El Asnam earthquake to develop a research program around seismic risk and improve the Civil Protection’s ability to prevent, respond to, and prepare for disasters. In Lebanon, sustained interest in DRM by the Prime Minister’s Of- fice began in 2003 and culminated in 2009 with the formulation of the Strengthening DRM Ca- pacities project, supported by UNDP, to establish a DRM unit, develop and implement a DRR strategy, and raise awareness. For both countries, the partnership with international institutions, such as UNDP and UNISDR, has facilitated regional alliances, enabled exposure to global good practices and lessons learned, and ensured participation in the Global Platforms for Disaster Risk Reduction. Nevertheless, there is a third distinctive key factor in Algeria and Lebanon that created momen- tum for their DRM agendas: Algeria’s early engagement in DRR, having experienced in the past that “prevention pays,” and Lebanon’s local collaboration. Given the governance and public services challenges in Lebanon’s history, local collaboration among and within municipalities has helped promote DRR initiatives. In fact, the municipality is the only level of decentralized gover- nance that is helping to achieve visible DRR results in the absence of a strong national institutional coordinating agency or mechanism. Source: UNISDR, Good Practice Country Briefs. The World Bank has deepened its dialogue with North African governments (Egypt, Mo- rocco, and Tunisia) through the Climate Change Adaptation and Natural Disasters Pre- paredness in the Coastal Cities of North Africa Project. Completed in 2011, this project supported (i) assessment of natural hazard and climate vulnerability in Alexandria, the Bouregreg Valley, Casablanca, and Tunis; (ii) development of DRM preparedness plans for MNA coastal cities; and (iii) identification of coastal cities’ climate adaptation priori- ties. The study strongly prioritized addressing vulnerabilities along the coastline, particu- larly around a stretch of about 40 km that is already vulnerable to erosion and sea surg- es. Climate-resilient urban planning will be crucial for Tunis, Casablanca, and Alexandria to manage their increasing risks. In low-lying areas of these cities subject to flooding, upgraded drainage systems will be necessary, and illegal housing development at the periphery will need to be contained. For all urban sites examined by the study, mitigat- ing these risks requires actions in three overlapping spheres: urban planning, institutional reforms including reinforcing capacity, and strengthening infrastructure. The study also provided costing tools that will assist cities in identifying potential losses under different scenarios. The study has enabled the governments of Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia to set priorities and begin mobilizing the necessary investments so that the countries can move forward and implement the recommendations. A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 39 BOX 8. INTEGRATING DRM INTO URBAN PLANNING IN TRIPOLI, LEBANON Lebanon’s northern hub, Tripoli, is challenged by multiple natural hazards, coupled with internal and international conflict that threaten the operation of critical infrastructure such as water and sanitation; electric energy and oil refineries; transportation; telecommunication; schools; and hos- pitals. To tackle these threats, the World Bank financed a study by the Disaster Risk Management Centre (DRMC) of Beirut to quantify the vulnerability of Tripoli to natural hazards and identify the challenges posed by the Lebanese political context and the degree of centralization and super- vision exerted on local authorities. As a result, several challenges were identified, including the lack of implementation decrees for various codes, the lack of independent verification mecha- nisms for infrastructure projects, and the limited enforcement of building codes. As the second largest city the country, Tripoli plays a central role in the country’s economic activ- ity and is the main model for the cities of Mina and Baddawi. Together, the three cities constitute the Union of Municipalities of Al-Fayhaa (UoMoAF). The study revealed that it is fundamental for the UoMoAF to jointly take action to reduce vulnerability to external shocks and mainstream DRM into their urban management by decentralizing their decision-making system. Furthermore, implementation of capacity building at the federation and grassroots level as recommended by the study has proven to be effective. With the arrival of the 800,000 Syrian refugees, resource allocation, waste collection, and other city planning processes have become more difficult, but have not hampered the functioning of Tripoli. Source: Hamdan and Rajab, “Integrating Disaster Risk Management into Urban Planning and Management.” Regional collaboration A key focus of GFDRR programming has been supporting regional DRM collaboration. This programming is closely tied to the Arab World Initiative, in which greater regional cooperation is being forged to take advantage of common development opportunities and scale economies. Organization of Islamic Cooperation: As noted earlier, the Fourth Islamic Conference of Environment Ministers, which took place in Hammamet, Tunisia, October 5–6, 2010, ad- opted the ISDRRM. The same Conference of Ministers adopted a resolution requesting that GFDRR, in cooperation with the Islamic Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Orga- nization (ISESCO), develop an executive work plan to implement the ISDRRM. The work plan seeks to build regional resilience to disasters by focusing on: (i) Strengthening DRR capacity in Islamic countries; (ii) Improving understanding of risks and access to data; (iii) Advancing regional initiatives for DRR; (iv) Promoting disaster risk financing and insurance strategies; (v) Helping countries prepare for disasters and strengthen post-disaster response and reconstruction capacity; and Laying the foundation for the second phase of implementing comprehensive DRM (vi) programs at the national level. 40 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA The Fifth Islamic Conference of Environment Ministers (Astana, Kazakhstan, May 17–18, 2012) adopted the executive work plan. The Conference requested that ISESCO and GFDRR design a roadmap that could strengthen the coordination mechanisms for col- lecting the funds needed for implementation of the executive work plan. The Arab Academy for Science, Technology, and Maritime Transport: Collaboration with the AASTMT has been based on the delivery of DRM education. This collaboration has led to training on PDNA methodology for a core group of Arab Academy experts who, in the future, could lead PDNA in affected countries in MNA. Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Secretariat: Dialogue with the GCC Secretariat is un- derway to support Gulf countries in building their capacities and to conduct hazard and risk assessments through a cooperation framework to be developed jointly with GFDRR. The Arab Administrative Development Organization (ARADO): The collaboration with ARADO is based on the delivery of online DRM courses (launched in 2013), with a plan to scale up this program by offering the courses in Arabic and French to ensure wider coverage in the MNA Region. The Statistical, Economic, and Social Research and Training Center for Islamic Countries (SESRIC): Cooperation with SESRIC is expected to include implementation of the Islamic work plan for disaster risk reduction and management. A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 41 IV. Proposed Way Forward World Bank support to MNA countries encompasses capacity building on DRM issues at national and community levels, catalyzing an interministerial dialogue on disaster risk management within countries, and creating an enabling environment to support the development of the region’s national strategies for DRM. Strategic Pillars Aligned with the HFA, World Bank priorities for action in the region are organized around five pillars: Pillar I. Institutional Capacity Building, Education, and Knowledge Sharing: To man- age risks, policy and legislative development, training, and knowledge sharing Pillar II. Risk Identification: Hazard and risk assessments to identify the intensity, fre- quency, and other characteristics of disaster risk, and the development of decision systems Pillar III. Risk Reduction: Design and implementation of structural and nonstructural DRM measures Pillar IV. Risk Financing and Transfer: Through risk transfer instruments, a catastrophe deferred drawdown option (CAT DDO), and reinsurance instruments Pillar V. Response, Recovery, and Reconstruction: Disaster impacts and losses can be substantially reduced if authorities, individuals, and communities in hazard- prone areas are well prepared, ready to act, and equipped with the knowl- edge and capacities for effective disaster management TABLE 1. CORE ACTIVITIES FOR THE NEXT THREE YEARS, BY PILLAR Pillar I. Institutional Capacity Building, Education, and Knowledge Sharing Institutional Strengthening & Capacity Building Priorities • Support the development of a regional “Center of Excellence” to build disaster resilience • Promote awareness, institutionalization, and ownership of DRM to line ministries • Promote development/use of tools for mainstreaming DRM into development planning • Promote the development, application, enforcement, and monitoring of policies, stan- dards, norms for DRM, land use, and natural resource management • Promote synergies between land-use planning, CCA, and DRM and its institutionalization • Strengthen regional and national institutions involved in risk assessment 44 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Current Activities • Support the establishment of a national strategy for DRM in Djibouti, Morocco, and the Re- public of Yemen • Republic of Yemen: Build the capacity of local and national governments, including as- sistance in establishing the national strategy for DRM and CCA training on disaster needs assessment • Republic of Yemen: Modernize the climate data system and improve hydrological, weath- er, and climate information management systems • Algeria: Support the establishment of a national-level interministerial committee on DRM and CCA • Morocco: Build capacity at the community level, including response and rescue plans, and increase capacity of government officials by providing training on DRM • Morocco: National-level interministerial committee on DRM further expanded to integrated risk management (IRM) • Djibouti: Assist the DRM National Secretariat in updating and operationalizing its DRM Action Plan Future Activities • Djibouti: Enhance capacity of DRM unit to support the operationalization of CARAD • Djibouti: Organization of an Understanding Risk, Horn of Africa Forum, focusing on port se- curity and cyber attacks • Djibouti and Lebanon: Host women’s competition for the identification of risks and the pro- posal of solutions through business plans • United Arab Emirates (with ARADO): Complete establishment of national e-learning laboratory • Morocco: Train provincial and local Ministry of Interior officers on DRM • Morocco: Create a Bureau of Coordination to make policy-level decisions on IRM • Develop knowledge exchange program between Istanbul Seismic Risk Mitigation Project (ISMEP) and the governments of Djibouti and the Republic of Yemen • Organize a city risk management forum to build resilience across MNA countries (May 2014) • Organize Understanding Risk for Commercial Hubs in the Middle East and North Africa (Oc- tober 2014) Education Priorities • Establish a national and regional institutional mechanism and identify organizations to im- plement DRM educational programs • Through trainings, education and advocacy campaigns, support MNA government main- streaming of DRM • Promote regional capacity assessments for development of long-term, agency-specific, educational capacity programs Table 1 continued on next page A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 45 TABLE 1. CORE ACTIVITIES FOR THE NEXT THREE YEARS, BY PILLAR, CONTINUED Future Activities • Incorporate DRM modules into university curricula and develop a DRM master’s degree • Republic of Yemen: Curriculum to be developed for a DRM master’s degree program at the University of Sana’a • Republic of Yemen: Create a DRM national laboratory at the University of Sana’a by trans- ferring the World Bank e-learning platform • Djibouti: Organization of a multistakeholder risk and climate data–management training Knowledge Sharing Priorities • Support the development of a regional knowledge networking portal to facilitate the col- lection, standardization, and sharing of disaster-related information • Promote the allocation of dedicated resources in the region to maintain and manage equipment and knowledge systems Current Activities • Organization of South–South cooperation between Djibouti, Kenya, and Mozambique on hazard and climate data management, community preparedness, and green growth • Organization of South–South cooperation between Morocco and Vietnam to share their experiences in flood management at the community level Future Activities • Organize an exchange between the Mediterranean countries on issues of sea-level rise, flood management, and seismic retrofitting Pillar II. Risk Identification Hazard & Risk Assessment Priorities • Set up dedicated systems and resources for the development of hazard and risk assess- ments and dissemination of risk information • Conduct risk assessments of critical urban areas Current Activities • Djibouti, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, and the Republic of Yemen: National level multihazard risk assessments are helping prioritize investment decisions on risk mitigation for development • City-level hazard risk assessments in Tripoli, Sana’a, Tunis, Alexandria, and Algiers are feed- ing into city planning and management Future Activities • Djibouti, Morocco, and the Republic of Yemen: Help governments implement the recom- mendations of probabilistic risk assessment, including water-harvesting structures and retro- fitting of critical infrastructure • GCC countries: Risk assessments in Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Saudi Arabia 46 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Decision Systems Priorities • Support the expansion of early warning and forecasting • Promote the allocation of resources—financial and personnel—to manage the dissemina- tion of risk information through country processes Current Activities • Djibouti: Establish a risk assessment and communication platform, including a web-based platform for sharing among various sectors • Djibouti: Upgrade the existing alarm system into a full-fledged early warning system • Morocco: Set up a national information system to store and manage risk data Future Activities • Through various forums, provide advisory services and capacity for hazard and risk assess- ments as a critical tool in decision making for DRM investments Pillar III. Risk Reduction Priorities • Promote the development of well-designed water management systems across the region • Promote capacity development for the implementation of disaster risk mitigation pro- grams in the region • Promote the development of cost-benefit analysis for structural mitigation investments for critical infrastructure • Promote the standardization of disaster risk calculations in public investment • Promote the development of cost-effective flood protection measures • Promote the participation of women in risk reduction activities Current Activities • Republic of Yemen: Establish small-scale flood risk management and water-harvesting systems in vulnerable communities of Hadramout and Al-Mahara Future Activities • Republic of Yemen: Establishment of small-scale, rural, water-harvesting structures as part of the flood hazard risk mitigation study completed in 2010 • Republic of Yemen: Assist government in implementing storm drainage and flood protec- tion in some cities (IBB and other flood-prone settlements) • Morocco: Establish cost-benefit scenarios for mitigation options and investment in infra- structure, including early warning system • Djibouti: Assist the government (with the UNDP and European Union ) in constructing urban flood and water-retention infrastructure • Djibouti: Assist the government in establishing early warning system • Djibouti: Implementation of risk prevention plans Table 1 continued on next page A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 47 TABLE 1. CORE ACTIVITIES FOR THE NEXT THREE YEARS, BY PILLAR, CONTINUED Pillar IV. Risk Financing and Transfer Priorities • Increase the financial response capacity of governments toward natural disasters while maintaining their fiscal balance • Promote the inclusion of natural disaster risks within the broader financial risk management strategy • Explore market-based catastrophe risk insurance solutions through a feasibility study; re- member lessons learned from international experience (CCRIF, SECRIF) • Promote regional cooperation on disaster risk financing and insurance (DRFI) Current Activities • Morocco: Assist the government in the design and implementation of the catastrophe risk insurance law Future Activities • Morocco: Establish a new catastrophe risk insurance market for firms and residents and a solidarity fund to address affordability issues • Develop DRFI economic and fiscal profiles across the region—enabling countries to benefit from other DRFI experiences and to increase cost-effectiveness of disaster risk assessment Pillar V. Response, Recovery, and Reconstruction Priorities • Develop comprehensive review of emergency response in MNA • Develop capacities at the regional level for rapid PDNAs • Promote mainstreaming of DRM into reconstruction through case study best practices • Continue building PDNA capacity and develop a disaster damage assessment structure and methodology and a recovery planning framework • Support capacity building for communities—the first responders in times of disaster Current Activities • Djibouti: Support the Executive Secretariat in developing disaster response contingency plans and communication protocols and strategy • Djibouti: Assess drought loss, damage, and needs through the drought PDNA completed in October 2011 • Jordan: Support community preparedness and resilience to seismic risk in the Dead Sea Valley • Develop Rapid Damage Loss Assessment for Winter Storm Alexa, to be completed in March 2014 48 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Future Activities • Djibouti: Develop a disaster damage assessment structure and methodology and a recov- ery planning framework • Morocco: Develop response plans for communities • Morocco: Strengthen building codes and enforcement • Republic of Yemen: Strengthen capacity of local authorities and communities in Hadram- out and Al-Mahara governorates for preparedness and response to any future disasters Additionally, the following GFDRR framework outlines cost-effective steps governments and other DRM stakeholders can take jointly to protect residents and economic assets. Collectively, these steps contribute to disaster risk management. This framework was used recently in the Sendai Report (figure 10). FIGURE 10. A DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK Source: World Bank and GFDRR, Sendai Report. A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 49 Global DRM Best Practices Relevant to MNA Countries As the region moves forward on the priorities for action under each strategic pillar, World Bank support to the MNA Region to increase disaster resilience is expected to build on the wealth of global experience already available and leverage best practices, such as the ones detailed below. Pillar I. Institutional Strengthening and Capacity Building Pakistani efforts for institutional coordination and capacity building The 2005 earthquake and the 2011, 2012, and 2013 floods in Pakistan have left US$25 bil- lion in damages, making development unsustainable and hindering the achievement of poverty reduction goals. In the past, there was a DRM system in place, stemming from the Calamities Act of 1958, but it provided only legal mechanisms for relief. DRM was regarded in isolation from mainstream development. Given the dramatic increase in large-scale disasters in recent years, Pakistan has shifted its approach to development and disaster management. The National Disaster Man- agement Act (NDMA) of 2010 created DRM authorities at the national, provincial and district levels, with the mandate to help concerned ministries and provincial leaders plan for disasters. However, the new vision and mission of the NDMA was not sufficiently un- derstood by its implementers and did not raise sufficient community awareness, and investment in DRM remained negligible. To provide guidelines to overcome such chal- lenges, and to promote measures to reduce vulnerability, the government approved the National Disaster Risk Reduction Policy in 2013. The policy’s priority areas are hazard and vulnerability assessments, awareness raising, early warning systems, and capacity de- velopment for post-disaster recovery. These institutions and policy are part of a broader National Disaster Risk Management Framework (NDRMF), which has made outstanding progress by enhancing capacity, kick-starting the risk assessments, and promoting DRM planning and community preparedness. Pillar III. Risk Reduction Alleviating the growing water scarcity in China The North China Plain is one of the most densely populated regions in the world, encom- passing the capital, Beijing, and is China’s main agricultural region. Its soil is fertile, but water scarcity is a growing problem. The World Bank’s North China Plain Water Conser- vation Project aimed to enhance beneficial use of water resources, agriculture produc- tion capacity, and farmer incomes by increasing the value of agriculture production per unit of water consumed. The project intended to increase yields, reduce nonbeneficial water losses, and establish mechanisms for sustainable use and management of wa- ter resources in irrigated areas. The project supported integrated improvements to over 100,000 hectares of irrigated land and benefitted 360,000 households. Agricultural pro- 50 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA duction tripled, and farmer per-capita incomes increased 10–554 percent. Furthermore, groundwater depletion was reduced to negligible levels, or eliminated, and 500 water- use associations were established to more sustainably manage water in rural areas. For the first time on this scale in China, these associations assumed responsibility for both financing and operating irrigation systems. Pillar IV. Risk Financing and Transfer Reducing and managing fiscal risk from disasters: Colombia’s approach to sovereign disaster risk financing Natural disasters represent an important challenge to the stability and sustainability of Colombia’s fiscal accounts, because the country experiences the highest rate of natural disasters in Latin America. Since 2004, the government has been working to reduce its contingent liability from disasters and to manage fiscal risk from these events. The gov- ernment took a major step forward in 2010 when it conducted a comprehensive review using state-of-the-art catastrophe risk modeling techniques. At the time, the government estimated that, on average, natural disasters represent a yearly contingent liability of 0.13 percent of GDP. However, a 1-in-250 year earthquake could generate additional public expenditures in excess of 2.7 percent of GDP—making natural disasters the sec- ond largest source of fiscal risk. In 2011, the Ministry of Finance began to work with the World Bank to deepen Colombia’s efforts in disaster risk financing and insurance (DRFI). Taking a programmatic approach to improving its financial resilience, the government published a review on the financial and fiscal impacts of disasters and its DRFI strategy. The DRFI strategy focuses on (i) improving disaster risk information; (ii) enhancing insur- ance of public assets; and (iii) improving budget management of disaster events. Under the latter, the government recently secured a US$250 million contingent credit line from the World Bank (the catastrophe deferred drawdown option, CAT-DDO) and is analyz- ing the implementation of risk transfer products.63 Microinsurance in Malawi Malawi has piloted an innovative drought insurance program for local groundnut farm- ers that will help them mitigate the risks associated with periodic droughts. The insurance will help farmers obtain financing to purchase certified seeds that produce increased yields and revenues and have greater resistance to disease. The pilot program currently includes nearly 900 farmers in four areas and, if successful, can be scaled up to other crops and other areas of Malawi and, subsequently, to Africa. The National Smallholder Farmers’ Association of Malawi, in conjunction with the Insurance Association of Ma- lawi, received technical assistance from the World Bank and Opportunity International Network financed by the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs. Using this support, the two Malawian associations designed the index-based weather insurance contract, which pays out when there is insufficient rainfall for groundnut production. If a drought triggers a payout from the insurance contract, funds will be paid directly to the bank to pay off the farmers’ loans. In the absence of drought, farmers will benefit from selling 63 World Bank and GFDRR, Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Program, https://www.gfdrr.org/node/337. A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 51 BOX 9. EXAMPLES OF WORLD BANK SUPPORT FOR URBAN RESILIENCE A new project in Sri Lanka, the Metro Colombo Urban Development Project, will look at issues including government administration, transport and solid waste management, but will focus on flood protection through the installation and upgrading of drainage infrastructure. Since 2006, the second phase of the Colombia Disaster Vulnerability Reduction Project has sup- ported infrastructure retrofitting and institutional strengthening in the city of Bogotá. The project financed the retrofitting of more than 200 schools and six hospitals, as well as the resettlement of more than 5,000 families living in risky areas. The World Bank has a history of supporting the sustainable development of urban areas in Turkey, working on financing, risk reduction, and preparedness. The post-Marmara earthquake project helped establish both the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (TCIP) as well as the forerunner of the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency. The TCIP is a legal public entity that pro- vides compulsory property earthquake insurance for owners of private dwellings built legally on registered land. Premium rates are actuarially sound, not subsidized, and vary with construction type and property location. Covered risks include earthquakes and fire. The TCIP was established to limit the financial burden earthquakes place on the Turkish government’s budget, focus gov- ernment relief funds on low-income residents, and access international reinsurance capacity in a cost-effective manner. Several projects have targeted Istanbul, supporting the development of multihazard risk assess- ments, the retrofitting of key infrastructure, flood risk reduction, emergency planning and re- sponse, and public awareness. In three cities in Vietnam, Dong Hoi, Can Tho and Hanoi, local governments have extended the work of risk assessment to a second phase in resilience planning, completing a Local Resilience Action Plan. This includes not only a vulnerability assessment and spatial planning, but also an inventory of planned capital investments and policy changes to address high-risk areas, analyze gaps, and a multistakeholder priority setting based on a comparison of alternatives in light of lim- ited budgets and fundraising prospects. Source: World Bank and GFDRR, Sendai Report. the higher value product in the marketplace. This private pilot program is very much in line with the government’s initiative to explore innovative ways to manage weather and price risk in Malawi while contributing to the food security needs of the country. It is the first time in Africa that such index-based weather insurance policies have been sold to smallholder farmers. A similar pilot in India in 2003 has expanded from its initial 230 farmers and now provides more than 250,000 farmers with access to weather insurance.64 Contingent emergency response components Several disaster-prone countries are including contingent emergency response compo- nents (CERCs) in their World Bank–funded projects, allowing them to be better prepared in case of a disaster. The first CERC was introduced in the Colombia Disaster Vulnerability Reduction Project in 2007. This US$150 million component was subsequently replaced by 64 World Bank, “The Emergency Drought Recovery Project.” 52 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA a CAT-DDO when the instrument was introduced in 2008. The Laos Roads Sector Project (2010, US$27.8 million) triggered a contingent component of US$1 million and realloca- tion of another US$3 million from other project components to repair roads damaged by Typhoon Haima. In Indonesia, contingent components have been added under the Third National Program for Community Empowerment in Urban Areas (2010, US$150 mil- lion) and the Western Indonesia Roads Improvement Project (2011, US$250 million). In Pakistan, CERCs were recently introduced in the Baluchistan Disaster Management Proj- ect and in the Punjab Cities Governance Improvement Project. Once triggered, the contingent funds can be mobilized by following procedures based on the World Bank’s Operational Policy 8.0, “Rapid Response to Crises and Emergencies,” which minimizes upfront processing steps and fiduciary and safeguard requirements.65 Disaster risk financing and insurance in Indonesia Indonesia is situated in one of the world’s most active disaster hot spots, where several types of disasters frequently occur. The potential cost of a major disaster in Indonesia could exceed 3 percent of its GDP. While the annual economic impact of natural di- sasters is estimated at 0.3 percent of GDP over the last decade, simulations show that a major earthquake (occurring once every 250 years) could cause losses in excess of US$30 billion, that is, 3 percent of Indonesia’s GDP.66 The Rehabilitation and Reconstruc- tion Fund is the main budget instrument for the government to finance public post-disas- ter expenditures, but the fund is undercapitalized. Post-disaster reconstruction is largely funded through the reserve of the State’s General Treasury, which requires parliamen- tary approval. The annual allocation of about IDR 4 trillion (US$450 million) may still be insufficient to deal with a major catastrophe or a series of moderate to severe disasters in a given fiscal year. More importantly, a budget reappropriation is required after almost every disaster. To release the country from the immediate financial response against a natural disaster and better protect its fiscal balance, in 2013, the government approved Flexibility of Budget shifts among disaster phases (prevention, emergency response, recovery) and across different fiscal years. The government also included catastrophe risk insurance in the new Budget Execution Regulation. Several local governments have used insurance to protect public assets against disasters and, in collaboration with insurance companies, the country is developing index-based earthquake insurance to strengthen the resiliency of the financial sector that serves lower-income households and small and medium-sized enterprises.67 This gradual progress has made Indonesia a DRFI role model in Asia. Pillar V. Response, Recovery, and Reconstruction Community-based DRM: Experience from the Philippines Buklod Tao is an environmental organization formed by residents of Dona Pepeng sub- division and informal settlers of North and South Libis Barangay in the Philippines, an 65 World Bank and GFDRR, Sendai Report. 66 World Bank and GFDRR, Indonesia: Advancing a National Disaster Risk Financing Strategy. 67 OECD, Disaster Risk Financing in APEC Economies. A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 53 area highly prone to flooding and typhoons. After a one-day Disaster Management and Preparedness Seminar in June 1997, Buklod Tao formed a Disaster Response Commit- tee (DRC), composed of 33 members, and formulated a Counter Disaster Plan. Three disaster management teams were organized, and emergency rescue and evacuation plans were detailed. These included the construction of three fiberglass boats, using local expertise and labor to practice rescue maneuvers. Two months after the disaster preparedness seminar, a typhoon hit the community again. Although several houses were swept away by the waters, no one was killed, and many people were able to save their belongings. Since then, when typhoons hit the area, flood-level monitoring, early warning, evacuation, rescue operations, and relief assistance activities of the DRC and Buklod Tao—all community-led initiatives—ensure people’s safety. Neighboring villages, vulnerable to similar hazards, have now started developing their own DRCs, making this region in the Philippines one of the most resilient to flood risk.68 Safer Homes, Stronger Communities: A Handbook for Reconstruction after Disasters This handbook was developed by the World Bank69 to assist policy makers and project managers involved in large-scale post-disaster reconstruction programs who are faced with having to make immediate decisions that will have long-term impacts on the lives of the disaster’s victims. From establishing the policy framework for an entire reconstruction process to setting reconstruction policy in only one sector, the handbook emphasizes the importance of establishing a policy to guide reconstruction. Effective reconstruction is set in motion only after the policy maker has evaluated all alternatives, conferred with stakeholders, and established the framework and the rules for reconstruction. As inter- national experience demonstrates, reconstruction policy improves both the efficiency and the effectiveness of the reconstruction process. In addition to providing advice on policy content, the handbook describes mechanisms for managing communications with stakeholders about the policy, for improving the consistency of the policy, and for monitoring policy implementation and outcomes. Cities and Flooding: A Guide to Integrated Urban Flood Risk Management for the 21st Century Urban flooding has become an increasing development challenge for policy makers and citizens around the world. It causes widespread devastation, economic damages, and loss of human life, and is a recurring issue. Urban areas vulnerable to flooding have been hit especially hard in the past two decades, with a global increase of reported flood events. The rapid population growth in urban settlements has made urban flooding more deadly, more costly, and more difficult to manage. To help overcome these challenges, the World Bank developed Cities and Flooding: A Guide to Integrated Urban Flood Risk Management for the 21st Century.70 This handbook explains the causes and risk of urban floods and provides operational guidance on how to manage the risk of flood in an integrated manner, in the context of a rapidly growing 68 Heijmans and Victoria (2001). 69 Abhas K. Jha, Jennifer Duyne Barenstein, Priscilla M. Phelps, and others, Safer Homes, Stronger Communities. 70 Abhas K. Jha, Robin Bloch, and Jessica Lamond, Cities and Flooding: A Guide to Integrated Urban Flood Risk Man- agement for the 21st Century. 54 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA urban environment and a variable climate. This guide contains over 50 case studies from around the world to illustrate its policy recommendations. The handbook proposes a combination of structural and nonstructural measures, rang- ing from hard-engineered infrastructures such as flood defenses and drainage channels to building the capacity of people to cope with flooding in their environment. Integrated flood risk management therefore requires greater coordination among policy makers, technical specialists, civil society, NGOs, and the private sector. This guide provides a clear picture of the options, methods, and tools to assist them in making the right choices. A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 55 ANNEX 1. COUNTRY RISK MANAGEMENT PROFILES Algeria National Policy and Legislation • In 2004, a law was issued regarding the pre- vention of major risks and disaster manage- ment in the context of sustainable devel- opment as a comprehensive and coherent framework for planning, programming, and implementing a national policy on DRM • Ordinance 03-12 concerns compulsory insurance against the effects of national disasters • Reducing disaster risks is included in plans and development strategies, particularly Algeria statistics management and regional plans Geographic area 2,382 Disaster Risk Management Institutions (in thousands of km2) • Ministry of Interior GDP per capita, PPP (in US$) $8,715 • National Earthquake Engineering Center of Population (in millions) 35.9 Algeria Population density 15 • Centre de Recherche en Astronomie (person/per km2) • Astrophysique et Geophysique Urban population 67 • Algerian Red Crescent (% of total population) Country Partnership Strategy HDI country rank (out of 187) 96 • Algeria’s CPS includes a strategic objective to reduce vulnerabilities to natural disasters Algeria: Number of hazards Drought Reported Challenges/Gaps 1980 – 2010 Earthquake Extreme • Need for DRM mechanisms for intersectoral 4 2 4 Temperature Flood coordination that can facilitate compre- hensive planning, information sharing, and 15 implementation • Lack of ownership toward reducing disas- ter risk at the local level 1 36 • Need to develop databases on various hazards • Need to inform and educate people on hazards • Insufficient exchange of information and data between national stakeholders—lack of knowledge sharing Risk Assessment No assessment available 58 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Bahrain Disaster/Hazard Profile • Climate change: One of the countries most vulnerable to climate change • Drought: Desertification of arable land • Storms: Sand and dust storms put pressure on economy, health, and transportation • Other: 161 km coastline degrading rapidly because of oil spills and other discharges National Policy and Legislation • A new law for DRM has been drafted—the Bahrain statistics legislation and supporting regulations are in place to prevent or mitigate potential Geographic area 800 risks and also to provide for contingencies (in thousands of km2) GDP per capita, PPP 23,690 Disaster Risk Management Institutions (in US$, 2011) • Ministry of Interior Population (in millions) 1.3 • Civil Defense Council Population density 1,660 • National Committee for Disaster (person/per km2) Management Urban population 88.6 Key DRM Projects (% of total population) HDI country rank (out of 187) 42 UNDP • Focus on human sustainability in economic management, environmental conservation, and human resource development • Technical cooperation every five years through country program plan Reported Challenges/Gaps • Lack of coordination between stakeholders • Lack of funding for emergency response training • Need for a central formal emergency fund • Lack of systematic (budgeted) funding for DRM • Need for data to inform local action to reduce risks • Lack of central monitoring stations for various hazards • Insufficient procedures for warning public of impending hazards A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 59 Djibouti Disaster/Hazard Profile • Drought of 2008–12 incurred damages and losses in agriculture, livestock, water, and sanitation sectors of a cumulative US$96 million • 2004 flood caused damages of US$11.1 mil- lion and affected 100,000 people National Policy and Legislation 2006 DRM strategy: • Increase national leadership and commit- Djibouti statistics ment through the implementation of the Geographic area 23,200 Hyogo Framework for Action (in km2) • Enhance collaboration and coordination GDP per capita, PPP $2,290 among stakeholders (in US$, 2009) • Increase national commitment to protect vulnerable households Population (in millions) 0.9 • Serve as a focal point for UNISDR and Population density 38 strengthen links with Secretariat (person/per km2) National committee responsibilities: Urban population 88.1 • Policies and strategies framework (% of total population) • International aid mobilization HDI country rank 165 (out of 187) • Integrate DRM into poverty reduction Executive Secretary for DRM (SEGRC) responsibilities: Djibouti: Number of hazards Drought • Coordinating prevention, mitigation, and 1980–2010 Extreme Temperature response activities Flood 2 • Promoting and coordinating the prepara- Storm tion of sectoral and regional plans 5 Disaster Risk Management Institutions 12 • National Committee 1 • SEGRC • CERD • MHUEAT • National Agency of Meteorology • University of Djibouti 60 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Key DRM Projects • Climate change adaptation paper (US$200,000) • Flood emergency repair (US$6.5 million) GFDRM Projects • Disaster Management Information System at CERD • Create the Natural Disaster Risk Assessment and Monitoring System Program • Country disaster risk assessments CAS • CAS 2010–13 objective: Engage in activities to prepare for and cope with floods and droughts A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 61 Arab Republic of Egypt Disaster Profile 2010 flood: 3,500 people affected National Policy and Legislation The responsibilities of the National Committee for Crisis/Disaster Management and Disaster Risk Reduction include: • Assisting and participating in crisis and di- saster management at the national level by coordinating with various concerned agen- cies and organizations Egypt statistics • Studying different disasters to clearly define Geographic area 1,001 the institutional arrangements required (in thousands of km2) • Exchanging experience and knowledge in disaster management to review and up- GDP per capita, PPP (in US$) $6,324 grade the procedures needed to deal with Population (in millions) 82.5 different crises Population density 81 • National Strategy for Crisis/Disaster Man- (person/per km2) agement and Disaster Risk Reduction de- veloped to improve the national system of Urban population 43 crisis/disaster management and DRR (% of total population) HDI country rank (out of 187) 113 Disaster Risk Management Institutions • Information and Decision Support Center • National Committee for Crisis/Disaster Management and Disaster Risk Reduction • Higher Council for Civil Defense • Civil Defense • Ministry of Environment Reported Challenges/Gaps • Inadequate dedicated resources to implement DRM plans and activities • Lack of integrated early warning system • Need to strengthen social safety networks • Lack of capacity to implement DRM Risk Assessment The development of multihazard maps is underway 62 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Islamic Republic of Iran Disaster Profile • Droughts: From 1999–2001, 37 million peo- ple were affected by drought with US$3.3 billion in damages • Earthquakes: In the 2003 Bam earthquake, approximately 27,000 people were killed, 270,000 million affected, with more than US$500 million in damages and losses; in 1990, the Manjil-Rudbar earthquake killed 40,000 people, affected 710,000, and caused US$8 billion in losses. • Floods: 1.4 million people were affected Iran statistics between 2001 and 2002, causing more than 400 deaths Geographic area (in km2) 1,648,000 GDP per capita, PPP $11,467 National Policy and Legislation (in US$, 2009) • As provided in the 1998 National Plan on Population (in millions) 74.8 Natural Disasters Prevention, the Ministry of Population density 45 Interior has been legally assigned to func- (person/per km2) tion as the coordinator of all activities re- lated to the protection and prevention of Urban population 70 life and property losses—the plan has three (% of total population) main components: (i) monitoring and early HDI country rank 88 warning, (ii) risk assessment, and (iii) mitiga- (out of 187) tion and response • National Committee for Natural Disaster Re- duction (NCNDR) was formed in 1991, with Iran: Number of hazards nine specialized subcommittees presided 1980–2010 Drought over by the deputy ministers 1 3 Earthquake • Provincial committees presided over by the 9 Flood General Governors, coordination commit- Storm Wildfire tee presided over by the Minister of the In- terior 62 • Annual budget for DRR amounting to 2.5 percent of the total annual budget of the country, 1.5 percent of which is allocated for advocacy, damage reduction, and emergency management; in addition, dur- ing serious catastrophes, a special part of the budget is used for reconstruction • In 2003, the government approved the National Integrated Rescue and Relief Plan (NIRRP) as a replacement for NCNDR, based on Law No. 44 A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 63 Disaster Risk Management Institutions • Ministry of Interior • National Committee for Mitigation of Natural Disaster Effects • National Committee for Natural Disaster Reduction (NCNDR) • Bureau for Research and Coordination of Safety and Reconstruction Affairs (BRCRA) • National Disaster Task Force (NDTF) • Tehran Disaster Mitigation and Management Center (TDMMC) • International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Tehran • Geological Survey of Iran • Earthquake Risk Management Research Center, established in 2004 • Ministry of Urban and Housing, Earthquake and Landslide Expert Group • Ministry of Energy, responsible for the management of rivers and dams and also di- rectly involved in studying and applying mitigation measures against the rise of the Caspian Sea • Ministry of Jihad Construction is mandated to supervise watersheds, forests, and rangelands • Ministry of Health • Ministry of Roads and Transportation • Ministry of Agriculture Management and Planning Organization • Iranian Red Crescent Society • Islamic Republic of Iran Meteorological Organization • National Climate Change Office, established in the Environmental Research Center of the Department of Environment CAS No CASs have been cited since 2005; in the United Nations Development Assistance Framework 2012–16, DRM and management were declared as two of five priority areas Key DRM Projects • DesInventar disaster information management system • Public education and awareness campaigns • Disaster management plans • Capacity building for earthquake risk management • Institutional arrangements for enforcement of building codes • Tehran Master Plan on emergency management, 2004 • National Disaster Early Warning System Reported Challenges/Gaps • Coordination has been a long-standing challenge in disaster management 64 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA • DRR should be increasingly emphasized, while ensuring the highest response capac- ity with well-executed plans • Need reliable and timely hazard warnings, which are crucial for ensuring the health system is ready for effective service delivery during emergencies • Closer collaboration with relevant organizations such as the meteorology organization • Public awareness should be included as part of a cost-effective approach to build a culture of prevention in the community; the DRM system should consider the quality of competency-based training • Effective management of international assistance, especially during national catastrophes • More practice on intensive risk scenarios, like the Bam earthquake • Relocation of the National Disaster Management Organization: currently located in a line ministry, it would be more effective and representative if moved to a higher level office of management and supervision • Absence of stiff rules in the building code and of planning for responses and drills • Lack of access to databases, such as those containing spatial and geographic in- formation, and lack of communication and information exchange among organi- zations, which could cause major problems for disaster managers before and after disasters A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 65 Iraq Disaster Profile • Droughts have the largest human impact (2.4 percent of the population affected), followed by earthquakes and floods • Highest damage recorded was for floods, of US$1.3 million National Policy and Legislation • August 2009, Strategic Framework for Natu- ral Disaster and Risk Reduction in Iraq • August 2009, Action Plan for Implementing Disaster Risk Reduction in Iraq Iraq statistics • United Nations Framework Convention on Geographic area (in km2) 438,300 Climate Change was ratified in July 2009 GDP per capita, PPP $3,890 • The federal budget allocates funding each (in US$) fiscal year for an Emergency Fund, which is Population (in millions) 32.9 under the control of the prime minister, but so far it is mainly used for counterterrorism Population density 74 and unrests (person/per km2) Urban population 66 Disaster Risk Management Institutions (% of total population) • The National Operations Center’s (NOC) HDI country rank 132 main task is to respond to terrorism and civil (out of 187) unrest incidents, but it is now seeking to in- clude natural disasters in its mandate • The Crisis Action Cell, established in November 2006, is composed of the National Se- curity Advisor, Ministers of Defense and Interior, and the Prime Minister’s Chief of Staff • The Interministerial Committee on Disaster Management, formed in 2007, comprised 10 ministries including Defense, Interior, Environment, Planning and Development Co- operation, Communications, Health, Water Resources, Foreign Affairs, Science and Technology, State Ministry of National Security, and the Secretariat General of the Council of Ministers CAS • No CAS was available for Iraq, however, there is a Country Water Resources Assis- tance Strategy (called the “Water-CAS”) • The United Nations Development Assistance Framework (UNDAF) states: “The United Nations Country Team…will support the development of a national disaster manage- ment institution, strengthened disaster preparedness, response and mitigation at na- tional and sub-national levels, and development of a National Disaster Plan linked to the NDP” 66 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Key DRM Projects There are no known DRM projects in Iraq, with the exception of the DRM strategy studies carried out by UN/OCHA Reported Challenges/Gaps • Inadequate fiscal resources and manpower are the primary constraints impeding disaster response capacity • Limited individual organizational capacity • Limited access to professional equipment and training • Absence of a central authority entrusted to create a strategic plan among all stake- holders, including nongovernmental organizations and civil society A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 67 Jordan Disaster/Hazard Profile Drought • Jordan experienced eight consecutive years of drought leading up to 2001 • In 1999, rainfall decreased by 70 percent, affecting 200,000 people Earthquakes • Dead Sea fault passes though Jordan • Jordan’s three largest cities (Amman, Zar- Jordan statistics qa, Irbid) are located within 30 km of the fault line and house more than 80 percent Geographic area (in km2) 89,340 of Jordan’s population GDP per capita, PPP $6,007 • Three areas located directly on the fault (in US$) are thought be especially at risk: City of Population (in millions) 6.2 Aqaba, industrial zone at the south end of the Dead Sea basin, and the hotel zone at Population density 68 the northeast end of the Dead Sea (person/per km2) Urban population 79 National Policy and Legislation (% of total population) Disaster Risk Management Master Plan Frame- HDI country rank 95 work of Amman (2008): (out of 187) • Includes analysis on emergency manage- ment system; building code adoption, im- plementation, and enforcement; land use; Jordan: Number of Hazards 1980–2010 and environmental management • Provides goals, policies, and advice on 2 DRM to cities and national institutions 3 Drought • Conforms to international standards Extreme Temperature • Evaluates legal and institutional framework 2 Flood regarding governance, operations, and Storm maintenance 3 • Higher Council of Civil Defense (HCCD) is the Coordinating Agency for Emergency Management (Civil Defense Law 18, 1999); it established three committees on media, relief, and earthquakes 68 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Disaster Risk Management Institutions • HCCD, in the Ministry of Interior • Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation • National Center for Security • DRM National Building Council • Natural Resources Authority of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan CAS DRM and climate change are not cited in CAS Key DRM Projects Establishment of a disaster information management system, DesInventar GFDRM Projects • Country disaster risk profiling and assessment • National DRM system, including necessary legal and institutional frameworks for inter- ministerial coordination • Increase institutional capacity UNDP Projects • Building National Capacity for Earthquake Risk Reduction in Amman • Building National Capacity for Earthquake Risk Reduction in Aqaba Special Econom- ic Zone • Strengthening of key civil defense buildings in relation to seismic and flash flood risks in the governorates of Amman, Zarqa, and Salt • Inclusion of provisions for seismic structural assessment and retrofitting design in the Jordan Building Code • Early warning system for floods and droughts in Petra (under development) Reported Challenges/Gaps • Lack of financial support for institutions • DRM laws do not support local ownership • Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation has not integrated DRM strategy into Executive Program Risk Assessment • Seismic Risk Assessment in Greater Amman, late 2008, sponsored by UNDP • Seismic Hazard Assessment for Building Codes, 2000–2007, sponsored by USAID and USGS • Seismic Risk Assessment for Aqaba, 2011, sponsored by UNDP and the SDC • A joint assessment report for Jordan; a seismic hazard map was produced for the region to benefit practitioners and policy makers concerned with seismic design A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 69 Kuwait Disaster Risk Reduction Institutions • Kuwait Civil Defense in Ministry of Interior • Fire Service Department • Emergency Medical Services • Al-Ahmadi Governorate Security Directorate • Coastguards • Kuwait Red Crescent Society Key DRM Project Development of expert rapid response team Kuwait statistics under centralized command to assist field Geographic area 17, 820 teams (in km2) GDP per capita, PPP $54,654 Reported Challenges/Gaps (in US$) • Rapid urbanization is affecting key Population (in millions) 2.8 resources Population density 154 • Limited institutional capacity and resources (person/per km2) to link DRM to urban planning, economics, and sustainable development policies Urban population 98 (% of total population) Risk Assessment HDI country rank 63 No assessment available (out of 187) Kuwait: Number of hazards 1980–2010 Flood 1 70 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Lebanon National Policy and Legislation The 2004 Construction Law and Appendices Law 646 were superseded by the 2005 Public Safety Law 14293, which details the: • Establishment of a building code for design and analysis of buildings greater than 10 m (three stories) in regard to earthquakes Safety Law 14293 provides additional mea- sures, including: • Fire hazard and protection for buildings, industries, and factories that have not ob- Lebanon statistics tained a planning permit Geographic area 10,450 • Buildings under construction require a cer- (in km2) tificate of compliance from a reputable Bu- reau of Verifiers GDP per capita, PPP $14,709 (in US$) Through the Environment Protection Law 444 of 2002, the National Environmental Council is Population (in millions) 4.3 responsible for: Population density 413 • Identifying national environmental objec- (person/per km2) tives and action plans Urban population 87 • Chapter 9, article 50 states national hazard (% of total population) mitigation action plans are a priority for the HDI country rank 71 country and should be developed soon (out of 187) to provide adequate DRM tools in case of natural hazard or war Lebanon: Number of hazards CAS 1980–2010 • No mention of DRM in CAS (2006–9) Flood Storm • DRM was accounted for in the Forest Fire Strategy approved by the Council of Minis- ters in 2009 2 2 Key DRM Projects • UNDP and Italian Civil Protection: Build na- tional and municipal DRM capacity. Since 2009, under the supervision of the Prime Minister’s office, UNDP is developing the Di- saster Reduction and Management in Leb- anon project, until 2014. This has led to the establishment of a National Response Framework and the upgrading of civil defense capacities. Further, a Flood Risk Man- agement, Water Harvesting, and Soil Conservation project was completed in 2011. A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 71 • World Bank and GFDRR Project: In cooperation with UNISDR, develop partnerships for DRM exchange and best practices. • Al-Fayhaa Sustainable Development Strategy (AFSDS): In 2011, begin integrating and assessing DRM risk into urban planning and municipal management. Risk Assessment • Map of flood-prone areas produced in 2008 • According to HFA report, a National Risk Assessment Profile was planned for April 2011 • Map of landslide areas has been produced • Tripoli risk profile 72 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Libya Disaster/Hazard Profile • Flood (1995): Damages totaling US$42.2 million • Food security: In 1990s, Libya imported 60 percent of its food; deserts in Libya are sub- ject to drought • Climate change: Increasing vulnerability of livestock because of lack of water resourc- es and loss of grazing sites; increasing salin- ity in the northern area Risk Assessment Libya statistics No assessment available Geographic area 1,760 (in km2) GDP per capita, PPP $16,855 (in US$, 2009) Population (in millions) 0.64 Population density 4 (person/per km2) Urban population 78 (% of total population) HDI country rank 64 (out of 187) Libya: Number of hazards 1980–2010 Flood 1 A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 73 Malta Disaster/Hazard Profile Malta has not reported a disaster between 1980–2010 Water supply • During tourist seasons, the population tri- ples, which puts a strain on groundwater resources Climate change • Sea-level rise will have a significant impact on drinking water Malta statistics • Interface between freshwater and seawa- ter will decrease by 1 m, so high salinity will Geographic area 316 be close to extraction (in km2) • 50 percent chance that there is a 3 degree GDP per capita, PPP $27,294 increase in mean temperature by 2100 (in US$) • 50 percent chance that there is a 17 per- Population (in millions) 0.419 cent decrease in precipitation by 2100 Population density 1,300 Key DRM Projects (person/per km2) Urban population 94.7 • Construction of desalination plants (% of total population) UN Framework Convention on Climate HDI country rank 36 Change (UNFCCC) First National (out of 187) Communications: • Compilation of annual greenhouse gas in- ventory from 1990–2000 • Performing greenhouse gas abatement analysis • Creating public awareness through workshop, publications, Web site, TV, news, and others 74 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Morocco Disaster/Hazard Profile Hotspots • World Bank 2004 study ranked the country 58 among top 85 countries at risk, estimat- ing 30.4 percent of the population and 33.4 percent of GDP are at risk from two or more hazards • Safi-Casablanca axis is the main hazard hotspot National Policy and Legislation Water and Environment Department, UNDP, Morocco statistics and national strategy for DRM in 2007: Geographic area (in km2) 446,600 • Enhance governance and institutional GDP per capita, PPP $4,986 effectiveness (in US$) • Reinforce monitoring mechanisms and Population (in millions) 32.3 emergency response capacity Population density 72 • Foster a culture of prevention and security (person/per km2) • Reduce latent risks Urban population 57 • Improve catastrophe forecasting (% of total population) • The Ministry of Economic and General Af- HDI country rank 130 fairs created a technical DRM committee (out of 187) in 2009 in cooperation with the Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Interior Disaster Risk Management Institutions Morocco: Number of hazards 1980–2010 • Water and Environment Department of the Drought 2 5 State Secretariat for the Energy, Mines, Wa- 1 Earthquake ter, and Environment Ministry (WED) 1 Extreme Temperature • Ministry of Economics and General Affairs Flood Storm • Ministry of Finance 19 • Ministry of Interior Key DRM Projects • Control against the effects of drought (US$338 million) • Drought Emergency Program (US$650 million) • Risk Perception of Communities and Communal Development Plan (US$200,000) • Rainfed Agriculture Development Project A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 75 GFDRM Projects • Country disaster risk assessments Reported Challenges/Gaps • No credible insurance mechanism for DRM 76 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Oman Disaster/Hazard Profile Storms • Gonu in 2007 and Phet in 2010 caused 24 fa- talities and severely damaged infrastructure • Storms have killed 155 people since 1980, with damages reaching US$3.95 billion Droughts and flood • Are periodic • Approximately 5 percent of population ex- posed to drought National Policy and Legislation Oman statistics • Hyogo Framework Geographic area 309,500 • Civil defense coordinates all activities (in km2) • In 2010, began reformulation of national GDP per capita, PPP $28,880 plan for crisis management (in US$) Disaster Risk Management Institutions Population (in millions) 2.8 • National Committee for Civil Defence Population density 9 (person/per km2) Key DRM Projects • Established permanent centers to manage Urban population 72 disasters (% of total population) • Established quick response teams to man- HDI country rank 89 age catastrophic events (out of 187) Reported Challenges/Gaps • Disaster data are scarce Oman: Number of hazards • Lack of coordination among government 1980–2010 agencies working in emergency response • The national-level committee responsible Storm for emergency situations needs to meet pe- riodically to plan for upcoming disasters 5 • Lack of proactive measures to face disasters • Lack of proper preparation for storms de- spite their regular recurrence • Insufficient warnings to people in remote villages and cities • Vital lifeline structures were built in susceptible areas and were cut off from access during recent cyclones Risk Assessment No assessment available A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 77 Qatar Disaster/Hazard Profile • No reported disasters from 1980–2010 • Climate change could have an adverse effect in terms of sea level; according to the Arab Environment report, a 1 meter rise in sea level could reduce land area by 2.6 percent National Policy and Legislation Civil Defense is the lead agency for disaster risk management Qatar statistics Disaster Risk Management Institutions Geographic area (in km2) 11,440 • Civil Defense in Ministry of Interior GDP per capita, PPP $88,919 • Ministry of Environment (in US$) • Qatari Red Crescent Population (in millions) 1.87 Key DRM Projects Population density 152 (person/per km2) Establishment of a regional center for disaster risk management Urban population 96 (% of total population) Risk Assessment HDI country rank 37 (out of 187) No risk assessment available 78 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Saudi Arabia Disaster/Hazard Profile Floods • Floods are the most recurrent natural hazard • Major floods in Jeddah in 2009 and 2011 • The most severe losses and/or damages come from low-frequency events that go unnoticed Droughts • Source of concern due to large-scale mi- gration • Sandstorms affect entire country, used to Saudi Arabia statistics be only eastern part Geographic area (in km2) 2,150,000 Earthquakes GDP per capita, PPP $24,434 • Risk is significant because country is located (in US$) on Arabian tectonic plate Population (in millions) 28.1 • Volcanic activity may affect earthquakes Population density 13 National Policy and Legislation (person/per km2) Urban population 82 General Directorate of Civil Defense (GDCD) is (% of total population) the main agency responsible for DRM and is re- sponsible for the following: HDI country rank 56 (out of 187) • Disaster risk identification, response, or miti- gation measures • Establishment of an early warning system Number of Hazards 1980–2010 • Ensuring critical infrastructure is operating after disaster 1 Presidency of Meteorology and Environment Flood (PME) is the focal point for the Hyogo Frame- Storm 10 work and is responsible for the following: • Coordinating DRM activities and building cross-sectoral ownership Disaster Risk Management Institutions • GDCD at the Ministry of Interior • PME • Ministry of Foreign Affairs • Saudi Geological Survey • King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 79 GFDRM Projects • Country disaster risk profiling and assessment • National DRM system, including necessary legal and institutional frameworks for inter- ministerial coordination • Increasing institutional capacity CAS No CAS available Reported Challenges/Gaps • Lack of early warning system or emergency management plan • Lack of institutional capacity • DRM institutions are fragmented • Lack of funding to perform necessary functions and coordinate effectively • Collection of data limited Risk Assessment • Seismic and volcanic risk plans developed by USGS and World Bank • City of Jeddah (US$5 million) for risk assessment and mitigation plans 80 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Syrian Arab Republic Disaster/Hazard Profile • Droughts are most common disaster, over 2 million people exposed in past three de- cades, followed by floods and storms • No major earthquakes have occurred, but several moderate quakes were recorded with no casualties National Policy and Legislation • Civil Defense law • Procedures against marine pollution • Seismic building codes Syria statistics Geographic area (in km2) 185,200 Disaster Risk Management Institutions GDP per capita, PPP $5,262 • Civil Defense (in US$, 2010) • Red Crescent Population (in millions) 20.8 Key DRM Projects Population density 111 (person/per km2) • Preparation of a disaster information man- agement system (DesInventar) database Urban population 55 (% of total population) • Strengthening Capacity Development for Disaster Risk Management (UNDP/SDC) HDI country rank (out of 119 with following objectives: strengthen, at the 187) central and local levels, institutional frame- work and legislative systems for compre- hensive DRM; improve access to reliable Syria: Number of hazards and comprehensive information on disas- 1980–2010 ter risks and disaster risk management; and 2 Drought develop master plan and earthquake risk Flood management framework for the city of Da- 1 Storm 5 mascus • Master of Science degree program in risk and disaster management (Damascus Uni- versity/UNDP) • National Drought Early Warning System (FAO/SDC) PRSP/CAS Five Year Plan for Development 2011–2015 provides a chapter on disaster risk reduction A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 81 Reported Challenges/Gaps • Lack of safety rules in designing buildings and infrastructure • Lack of public awareness on safety rules and procedures • Need laws and legislation and coordination mechanisms that organize the work of disasters • Emergency management plans are still reactive • Insufficient financial resources allocated for disaster risk reduction Risk Assessment No assessment available 82 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Tunisia Disaster/Hazard Profile • Flood of October 2007: Affected Sabalet Ben Ammar region • Water resources depletion: Rainfall is ex- tremely scarce, but with high variability • One-third of aquifers are overexploited, with many subject to saline intrusion • Deteriorating water quality due to soil salinity National Policy and Legislation Water scarcity plans • Invest in knowledge, monitoring, and water pricing to encourage farmers’ efficiency • Additional investments in wastewater reuse and aquifer recharge Climate change • Adaptation plans on health, agriculture, and tourism Tunisia statistics • 12th Economic Development Plan will have water as a priority Geographic area 163,600 (in thousands of km2) Disaster Risk Management Institutions GDP per capita, PPP $9,415 • Ministry of Environment and Sustainable (in US$) Development (MESD) has leading role on Population (in millions) 10.67 flooding, droughts, and earthquakes Population density 68 • Sahara and Sahel Observatories are lead (person/per km2) agencies for desertification Urban population 67 • National Office for Civil Protection (NCP) is (% of total population) lead agency for disaster response HDI country rank 94 Key DRM Projects (out of 187) World Bank project on solid waste manage- ment, urban water supply, water sector investments, and cultural heritage Reported Challenges/Gaps • Lack of early warning system • Governance interface issues between national and local governments A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 83 Risk Assessment Tunisia: Number of hazards 1980–2010 National Report on Disaster Prevention pro- vides assessment of disaster reduction policies 1 Drought Flood 8 84 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA United Arab Emirates Disaster/Hazard Profile • Dust storms are frequent hazards • According to Globe of Natural Hazards, UAE lies in a very strong earthquake zone 2 (MM VII) • Coastal areas are vulnerable to potential sea-level rise Disaster Risk Management Institutions • The  National Crisis and Emergency Man- agement Authority (NCEMA) of the Civil Defense (Ministry of Interior); part of the United Arab Emirates statistics Higher National Security Council Geographic area (in km2) 83,600 • Tawazun Disaster Management City (TDMC, GDP per capita, PPP $48,222 underway by 2015) (in US$) Key DRM Projects Population (in millions) 7.9 • As part of climate adaptation measures, Population density 90 several initiatives to protect the environ- (person/per km2) ment and decrease carbon emissions in- Urban population 78 clude the launch of “Masdar City,” the first (% of total population) carbon-free city in the world, as well as the launch of the largest program in sustainable HDI country rank 30 energy, with initial investment exceeding (out of 187) US$18 billion in solar energy and the reduc- tion and management of carbon emissions • UAE also established the “Zaid Prize of Future Energy,” with US$202 million allocated for innovations in sustainable energy Reported Challenges/Gaps There are no reported assessment studies on natural or climate-related hazards Risk Assessment No assessment available A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 85 West Bank and Gaza Disaster/Hazard Profile Earthquakes • Historical earthquakes in the region range from 1 to 6.5 in terms of magnitude; the 1927 quake had a death toll of at least 500 people • Existing geology will cause landslides, lique- faction, and amplification of seismic waves Floods • Flash flooding claimed the lives of hundreds of people in 2011 West Bank and Gaza statistics • Heavy rains damaged many farmlands in Geographic area (in km2) 6,020 March 2003 Population 3.9 Climate change (in millions, 2009) • Drought may increase due to severe water Population density 649 shortages, which are chronic in Gaza and (person/ per km2) part of the West Bank Urban population 72 National Policy and Legislation (% of total population) Higher Council of Civil Defense (HCCD), based GDP per capita, PPP on Civil Defense Law No. 3 of 1998, is respon- (in US$) sible for DRM by providing: HDI country rank 114 (out of 187) • Disaster risk identification, response, and mitigation measures • Training for civilians for early response West Bank and Gaza: General Directorate of Civil Defense (GDCD) Number of hazards provides the following on DRM: 1980–2010 • Early warning system • Coordination for disaster response Flood • Coordinates response between govern- 3 ment organizations and NGO Disaster Risk Management Institutions • HCCD • GDCD in Ministry of Interior • Ministry of Local Government • Ministry of Transport 86 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA • Ministry of Telecommunication and Information Technology • Ministry of Agriculture • Earth Science and Seismic Engineering Center (ESSEC) at An-Najah National University • National Agency for Disaster Risk Mitigation (NADRM) • Palestinian Red Crescent Society Key DRM Projects Disaster Risk Reduction Framework: Four Integrated Pillars, FAO GFDRM Projects Country disaster risk profiling and assessment Reported Challenges/Gaps • Lack of land-use planning or insufficient building codes • Lack of institutional capacity • Legal framework for DRM is limited • DRM institutions are fragmented Risk Assessment • Assessment of Disaster Risk Reduction by UNDP • Vulnerability of buildings in main cities (Jerusalem, Hebron, Ramallah, Nablus, Jenin, Tulkarem, and Jericho) was assessed by ESSEC between 2003 and 2007 as part of the joint “Earthquake Hazard Assessment for Building Codes” (2000–2007) sponsored by USAID and USGS—it benefits practitioners and policy makers concerned with seismic design A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 87 Republic of Yemen Disaster/Hazard Profile • Annual average economic loss: US$200 million • October 2008 floods caused damage of US$1.6 billion, about 6 percent of GDP National Policy and Legislation • In 1997, Decree No. 24 on Civil Defense (CD) provided a mandate of CD as a lead agency for disaster management • In 1997, Cabinet Decree No. 52 formed a committee to prepare for disaster man- Yemen statistics agement Geographic area (in km2) 523,000 • In 1997, MoPIC Decree No. 123 formed a GDP per capita, PPP $2,349 committee to establish an institution for (in US$) managing natural disasters Population (in millions) 24.8 • In 1997, Executive Bylaw No. 201 for CD de- fined the role of the Supreme Council of Population density 46 Civil Defense as providing the following: (person/per km2) — Policy direction Urban population 32 — Approval for plans for disaster prepared- (% of total population) ness and response HDI country rank 154 • In 1998, Decree No. 7 on the function of CD (out of 187) in the governorates and districts • In 2002, Water Law No. 33 provided some sections on flood risk reduction Yemen: Number of hazards 1980–2010 • In 2003, Decree No. 28 by the Minister of 2 2 Water and Environment established the En- vironmental Emergency Unit Earthquake • In 2006, UNDP prepared a national DRM Flood plan that has not been approved yet by 26 Storm the government Key DRM Projects UNDP • Disaster Preparedness, Management, and Recovery (2003–9) with the aim of strength- ening the capacity of national government institutions at the central and governor- ate levels in disaster management • Prepared a disaster information management system (DesInventar) database 88 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA • Early Recovery Project for the Livelihoods Sector of the Flood-Affected Areas in Hadra- mout and Al-Mahara Governorates Yemen Flood Control Protection • City of Taiz and surrounding area (US$81 million approximately) • Hadramout, infrastructure repair (US$10 million) • Al-Mahara governorate, infrastructure repair (US$35 million) GFDRM Projects • Country disaster risk assessments; national DRM system, including necessary legal and strategic frameworks for interministerial and intersectoral coordination • Pilot activities within certain sectors and/or cross-cutting themes • Damage, loss, and needs assessment (DLNA) training in 2008 and 2011 CAS CAS 2010–13 objectives: • Preventive action to deal effectively with scarcity and risk • Reduce depletion of water • Mitigate impacts of natural disasters and climate change adaptation • Establish a mechanism for integrated risk management for disasters, climate change, food insecurity, and water scarcity Reported Challenges/Gaps • Lack of early warning systems • Lack of institutional capacity • Lack of national codes of practice • No sustained financing mechanism(s) for DRM • Very weak coordination between government agencies during response to disaster events • Insufficient budgets to procure minimum equipment Risk Assessment • Three probabilistic risk assessments completed (national level, for the city of Sana’a, and for Hadramout and Al-Mahara governorates) • DLNA conducted in Hadramout and Al-Mahara governorates after floods of 2008 A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 89 ANNEX 2. SUMMARY OF THE JEDDAH CONSULTATIVE WORKSHOP A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 91 Minutes of Drm Workshop November 17–18, 2013, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia A Middle East and North Africa Regional consultation workshop was held in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on November 17 and 18, 2013, under the leadership of the Presidency of Meteorology and Environment (PME) of Saudi Arabia. Fifty representatives from 14 gov- ernments in MNA and international organizations attended the 2-day workshop to ex- change DRM experiences and provide feedback on the current report. This annex con- tains a compilation of the main messages and participant’s comments from the sessions. DAY 1 MORNING SESSION—OPENING AND PRESENTATION OF THE REPORT H.E. Chairman of the Executive Bureau of Arab and Islamic Environment Ministers and President of the PME of Saudi Arabia, Abdul Aziz Al Jasser Mr. Al Jasser opened the workshop by explaining the importance of having a prepared- ness strategy and performing risk assessments to limit damages and losses from events like floods. He described the long-term support provided by the Global Environment Fa- cility (GEF) and the World Bank, which will help Islamic countries prepare for and man- age emergencies. Mr. Al Jasser thanked the GFDRR for sponsoring the workshop, which will help advance the implementation of the Islamic Work Plan. Franck Bousquet, Sector Manager, Social and Urban Development, Disaster Risk Management, MNA Region, World Bank Mr. Bousquet described the world’s current natural disaster landscape and pointed out that 2011 was the costliest year on record, with US$380 billion reported in damages and losses. Over the past 25 years, 40 million people have been affected by 370 natural disasters, floods being the most recurrent event. Given the impact of disasters in MNA countries’ economies, developing systematic risk assessments, establishing early warning systems, and improving the capacity of governments to cope with natural hazards be- fore and after they strike have become a top priority. Mr. Bousquet noted that the World Bank is working alongside the MNA governments to build their resilience and, hence, the purpose of the workshop was to gather feedback from countries’ representatives to better address their needs. Mr. Bousquet praised the ongoing efforts of international organizations such as UNISDR, UNDP, and GFDRR in advancing this agenda. 92 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Overview of Natural Disasters in MNA: Regional/National Progress and Proposed DRM Action—Andrea Zanon, Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist, MNA Region, World Bank The Task Team Leader for the report, Natural Disasters in MNA: A Regional Overview, Mr. Zanon presented the major trends regarding natural disasters in the region. Among the main issues that require attention are the rapid urbanization rates and informal coastal settlements that increase those populations’ vulnerability to sea-level rise and flood risk. Furthermore, flash floods, the most extensive natural hazard in the region, often follow long periods of droughts. Earthquakes are the second deadliest events, accounting for 24 percent of total disasters. Mr. Zanon also outlined the main DRM initiatives, as detailed in the report, and invited the workshop participants to comment on the findings and proposed way forward. FEEDBACK ON THE REPORT The following comments were provided during the workshop by participants. To ensure maximal information, the World Bank MNA staff followed up with all participants after the workshop and received additional comments from several countries and partners. These comments were duly integrated into the report. Potential use of the report The workshop attendees praised the report for providing compelling disaster evidence that will guide MNA governments in their DRM decision making, progress, and strategies. Additionally, the report provides practical best practices from other countries and intro- duces the experience of international specialists. Approach to DRM in MNA As noted by one of the members from the Saudi Arabia delegation, most Arab countries manage disaster risk on a response and recovery basis. In contrast, it is important that the focus shifts toward a concerted effort that includes preparedness. In this sense, the World Bank team noted that most MNA countries do have preparedness plans, but they either are not implemented or outdated. Performing risk assessments would enable govern- ments to quantify the stresses that natural disasters put on the balance sheet and gover- nance of the country. This quantification then would facilitate the establishment or updat- ing of disaster preparation plans. Additionally, as the Jordan representative pointed out, raising awareness among residents is an essential tool to build preparedness. Even when natural disasters are not so frequent, communities need to be ready. For that purpose, as highlighted by the Arab League representative, developing national preparedness plans is not enough: it also is necessary to perform drills and strengthen capacity building. He brought up the case of New Orleans in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. The city had appropriate DRM plans and an institutional structure, but the population had not been trained through emergency simulations. The Egyptian delegate sought clarification on how the World Bank prioritizes its DRM interventions in MNA countries. The World Bank explained that its DRM team, in collaboration with GFDRR and 65 international partners A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 93 (countries and international organizations), periodically identifies low-capacity and high- risk priority countries (20 globally) to guide DRM work decisions. The World Bank also clari- fied that it is currently developing DRM activities in eight MNA countries and that it aims to expand to other MNA countries, particularly those most vulnerable to disasters. Lack of data Risk assessments are a good starting point for solving the deficient data issue in most countries. If there are no historical data, it is difficult to predict potential disaster damages and losses or plan for disasters without risk assessments and vulnerability studies. UNISDR noted that DesInventar data are available in eight countries and have been inventoried by the countries themselves, as compared to the data provided by Em-Dat, which is a foreign institution that may not have access to all the correct information. Nevertheless, explained a Saudi delegate, the main issue with data is that governments do not always share what they regard as sensitive information. This sensitivity applies especially to data pertaining to the damage and loss assessments and risk assessments. The World Bank team highlighted that currently the lack of quantitative data has been compensated by qualitative studies, such as the rapid risk profiling performed in Tripoli, Lebanon, and in Dji- bouti. These studies look at the institutional framework and urban vulnerability. The mayor of Jeddah pointed out that there is, however, a growing understanding of the benefits of sharing data. Sharing is the reason that a center for compilation of data is being es- tablished in Saudi Arabia for OIC countries to access. It will be operational next year. The Deputy Minister of Public Works and Highway for the Republic of Yemen highlighted that the World Bank presentation did not capture all of the historical data on disasters. Mr. Zanon from the World Bank and Mr. Zubair from UNDP explained that the data used to develop the report’s hazard maps (which are based on the EM-DAT database) use data provided by national governments, which in many cases do not capture small-scale di- sasters, such as those in the Republic of Yemen and in Djibouti in 2013. National and international coordination on the agenda and its operationalization Several participants, in particular, the Egyptian, Jordanian, Lebanese, Saudi, and Tuni- sian delegates, underscored that a higher degree of cooperation is necessary at both the national and international levels. At the national level, and horizontally, different ministries and institutions need to work together and share information. This cooperation will help overcome some of the data deficiencies and the fragmentation of initiatives. Often, DRM efforts are spread across different agencies and none of them have enough authority or responsibility to lead and improve the DRM strategy. The national level, verti- cal cooperation also is necessary, enabling communication and synchronization of work from the national government to the provincial and local authorities, and vice versa. At the international level, international institutions working on DRM need to coordinate to avoid duplication of efforts and to improve results. International organizations should also partner with national governments to help the latter program potential budget ex- penditures on DRM measures. Integration of conflict into preparedness policies The mayor of Tripoli emphasized the relevance of including conflict as a variable when considering national and urban preparedness plans. Conflicts burden budgets as well, 94 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA and some of these conflicts relate to environmental issues, such as water scarcity. How- ever, as the UNDP delegate explained, in countries that are affected by conflict, it is even more difficult to assess disaster vulnerabilities. The World Bank team emphasized that the scope of this report was to assess the risks posed by natural hazards and describe how the region is coping with them. Nevertheless, this platform of risk management could be used to build a multisectoral risk reduction plan, because risk management is a cross- cutting sector. The methodology being used for risk assessments on the effects of the Syrian refugee crisis is the same as that of the natural hazard risk assessment, but this methodology is not included in the scope of the present report. AFTERNOON SESSION—CASE STUDIES The DRM Pakistani Experience—Lieutenant General Nadeem Ahmed, Former Chairman, National Disaster Management Authority in Pakistan Mr. Ahmed provided an overview of Pakistan’s experience in DRM at the national level, which is relevant to other countries in MNA. Pakistan faces risks from various types of natural disasters including cyclones, flooding, landslides, and earthquakes. The severe 2005 earthquake that hit northern Pakistan highlighted the country’s high vulnerability to disaster risks. Since then, the government has taken significant steps toward establishing a comprehensive DRM framework. It includes an integrated DRM mechanism that links the vital functions of preparedness/risk reduction and early disaster recovery to longer- term reconstruction and rehabilitation. During the comments session, it was acknowledged by the countries’ representatives that such a system can be adapted to MNA countries. A very similar organizational clus- ter structure already exists in some countries such as Lebanon, where the High Relief Commission is directly linked to the prime minister. Nonetheless, the main emphasis in this type of structure, which leads from the national level to the provinces and then to the municipalities, is to ensure that those levels are well connected and that information does not get lost. Building Resilience to Natural Disasters and Climate Change in Djibouti—Samatar Abdi Osman, GIS Specialist, Djibouti Centre for Research Studies (CERD) Djibouti is vulnerable to droughts, flash floods, earthquakes, and volcanism. Mr. Abdi pre- sented Djibouti’s risk profile, noting that the country suffered a 4-year drought between 2008 and 2011 that resulted in a 3.9 percent GDP contraction per year. The large impact of the drought led to the implementation of the first drought Post-Disaster Needs Assess- ment (PDNA) in the world, which helped the country to globally leverage more than US$40 million for recovery. These funds have been used to improve Djibouti’s resilience to external shocks. Since 2007, a number of DRM efforts have been put in place, including a risk assessment and communication platform. The latter comprises completed disaster preparedness plans, a hydro-meteorological network, seismic and flood risk vulnerability assessments, and operational flood and drought early warning systems. UNDP’s Activities in MNA—Zubair Murshed, Regional Deputy Resident Representative, Adviser for Arab States, UN Regional Centre in Cairo, UNDP Mr. Murshed’s presentation showcased UNDP’s ongoing and planned DRM programs, which have assisted MNA countries in reducing their risk and impacts from natural disas- A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 95 ters while promoting a “build back better” legal and cultural framework. Priority areas for UNDP in MNA are policy formulation; institutional strengthening; risk assessments and early warning systems; education, training, and awareness; and urban risk reduction. Mr. Murshed also highlighted that UNDP has identified disaster finance, capacity of officers, and land use as regional needs for development. DRM Country Program in the Republic of Yemen—Abdulmalek Al-Jolahy, Deputy Minister of Public Works and Highways, Republic of Yemen Mr. Al-Jolahy began his presentation by offering a background on the 32 natural disas- ters that occurred in the Republic of Yemen in the past 30 years, which caused about US$6 billion of economic losses. Flooding was the most recurrent catastrophe, followed by landslides, earthquakes, and droughts. The October 2008 flood in Hadramout and Al- Mahara cost more than US$1.6 billion, equivalent to 6 percent of the country’s GDP. This devastating flood demonstrated the Republic of Yemen’s high vulnerability to disaster risks as well as the ineffectiveness of the existing reactive DRM system, which needs a serious shift from disaster response to proactive risk management. Since 2007, the World Bank and GFDRR have begun strengthening the Republic of Yemen’s national system for DRM in view of HFA priorities. The GFDRR financed four studies on hazard risk assessments (at the national level and for Al-Mahara and Hadramout governorates and Sana’a), as well as flood and water- harvesting feasibility studies. Furthermore, thanks to GFDRR, the Republic of Yemen con- ducted a PDNA following the 2008 floods, as well as DLNA capacity-building and training programs for Yemeni officials. The DRM country program, which slowed due to political unrest in late 2010, prioritized 5 activities for implementation in 2014: (i) development of the National DRM System (legal and strategic frameworks) to ensure coordination from the national to the community level; (ii) dissemination of the risk assessments; (iii) estab- lishment of DRM curricula; (iv) operationalization of emergency operations rooms; and (v) establishment of city-level early warning systems. After his presentation, Mr. Al-Jolahy showed two videos on national-level DRM progress, including the urban flood mitigation measures (Sayla project) and the drought mitigation and water-harvesting plans. DAY 2 MORNING SESSION DRM for Sustainable Development—Raja Rehan Arshad, Team Leader, Sustainable Recovery, Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, World Bank The increased frequency and intensity of natural disasters is threatening the world’s sus- tainable development and poverty reduction initiatives. The loss of human lives and economic assets, and the increased cost of reconstruction have led governments to see DRM as an effective tool for decreasing economic shocks while improving early recov- ery. DRM policies and measures need to be implemented to build disaster-resilient soci- eties and communities. The objectives are twofold: (i) reduce the level of risk in societies, while (ii) ensuring that development efforts do not increase the vulnerability to hazards, 96 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA but purposely reduce such vulnerability. Mr. Rehan’s presentation was divided into three parts: (i) a brief presentation of the GFDRR mechanism; (ii) a general description of DRM as an effective platform for sustainable development; and (iii) an introduction of the PDNA and early recovery mechanisms. The Role of Disaster Risk Financing in DRM, Including the Possibility for MNA Countries— Emily White, Disaster Risk Financing Specialist, World Bank Ms. White, via videoconference, introduced the disaster risk financing and insurance (DRFI) framework and explained the burden that natural disasters place on countries’ budgets. Often, governments in developing countries have limited capacity to quickly mobilize adequate post-disaster financing. Inadequate disaster financing can exacer- bate the adverse socioeconomic consequences of disasters. DRFI enables countries to increase their post-disaster financial response capacities and reduce the economic and fiscal burdens of natural disasters by developing an integrated strategy to connect with the broader DRM agenda. GFDRR supports developing countries in incorporating DRFI as part of their national disaster risk management strategies by providing capacity build- ing and technical assistance for the design and implementation of affordable and cost- effective DRFI programs. DRFI can be classified into four broad categories: sovereign disaster risk financing, property catastrophe risk insurance, agricultural insurance, and disaster microinsurance. Although the categories overlap, they are useful for organizing DRFI projects by objectives and scope. Urban Risk Assessment in Tripoli, Lebanon—Nader Ghazal, Mayor of Tripoli Lebanon is mainstreaming DRM into urban development. This effort led to the develop- ment of a qualitative rapid urban risk profile, which was completed in early 2012 by the Municipality of Tripoli, in partnership with the Lebanon DRM Center and the World Bank. The study is now considered to be the foundation to start mainstreaming DRM into urban development. Dr. Ghazal presented the findings of the risk profile and the recommen- dations, which revolved around the decentralization of DRM decision making. Keeping DRM at the municipal and community level has already proven beneficial, since it has helped the city to adapt to, among other issues, the Syrian refugees, who have flooded Tripoli over the past two years. A risk perception survey and a pilot project for commu- nity-based DRM are planned as next steps of the cooperation between the World Bank and Tripoli. AFTERNOON SESSION Implementation of Disaster Risk Financing Programs: The Indonesian Experience— Bintang Susmanto, Inspector General, National Agency for Disaster Management (BNPB), Indonesia The presentation by Mr. Susmanto underscored Indonesia’s vulnerability to natural haz- ards and how its DRM strategy stemmed from a risk-financing approach. With a popula- tion of 240 million, Indonesia, a country spanning across 3 time zones, is the world’s fourth most populated country. It is exposed regularly to seismic events, since the country sits on an active seismic belt, resulting in yearly earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and liquefac- tion. Additionally, severe floods and tsunamis frequently hit the country. The most devas- A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 97 tating recent natural disasters include the Indian Ocean Tsunami (2004), Mount Merapi eruption (2004), the Jogyakarta earthquake (2006), and the Padang Earthquake (2009). Among the lessons shared by Mr. Susmanto were the necessity for a clear legal frame- work to guide disaster risk financing and the importance of the leadership provided by the National Disaster Management Agency to strengthen coordination among different actors. The effective policy changes and financial allocation strategy introduced during the past decade have helped Indonesia build resilience to natural hazards. CONCLUSION AND CLOSING REMARKS Closing Remarks from the Presidency of the PME of Saudi Arabia While the workshop was taking place in Jeddah, flash floods in Riyadh caused seven deaths. The PME eloquently reported that this tragedy underscored even more the need for countries to have a DRM strategy that includes monitoring systems and adequate preparedness and response measures. Franck Bousquet, Sector Manager, Social and Urban Development, Disaster Risk Management, MNA Region, World Bank Mr. Bousquet thanked the PME for hosting the workshop and providing the opportunity for the 14 country representatives and international organizations to exchange their DRM experiences. Among the workshop’s key lessons, as stressed by Mr. Bousquet, are that DRFI and DRM decentralization are two potential next steps for the region’s governments to take to address disaster risks and vulnerability. The World Bank stands ready to support MNA countries in DRM, in partnership with UNDP and UNISDR, leveraging best practices in the region and worldwide, as shown during the successful workshop. 98 NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA ANNEX 3. Bibliography A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 99 EM-DAT, the OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, Université Catholique de Louvain, Brus- sels, Belgium (www.emdat.net). FAO Aquastat (www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/main/index.stm). 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Washington, DC, 2011. A REGIONAL OVERVIEW 101