D I S C U S S I O N PA P E R N U M B E R 1 8 DECEMBER 2010 D E V E L O P M E N T A N D C L I M AT E C H A N G E D I S C U S S I O N PA P E R S 1 58906 D E V E L O P M E N T A N D C L I M A T E C H A N G E Participatory Scenario Development Approaches for Identifying Pro-Poor Adaptation Options d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R n U m B E R 1 8 d E c E m B E R 2 0 1 0 E c o n o m i c s o f A d A p t A t i o n t o c l i m A t E c h A n g E Participatory Scenario Development (PSD) Approaches for Identifying Pro-Poor Adaptation Options Livia Bizikova, Samantha Boardley, and Simon Mead Papers in this series are not formal publications of the World Bank. They are circulated to encourage thought and discussion. The use and citation of this paper should take this into account. The views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the World Bank. Copies are available from the Environment Department of the World Bank by calling 202-473-3641. © 2010 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433, U.S.A. Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org/climatechange E-mail: feedback@worldbank.org All rights reserved. December 2010 This paper is based upon work that has been commissioned by the World Bank as part of the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change study. The results reported in the paper are preliminary and subject to revision. The analysis, results, and views expressed in the paper are those of the authors alone and do not represent the position of the World Bank or any of its member countries. Papers in this series are not formal publications of the World Bank. They are circulated to encourage thought and discussion. Copies are available from the World Bank Environment Department by calling 202-473-3641. 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For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA; telephone 978-750-4470; Internet: www.copyright.com Cover photo courtesy of Julio Pantoja/World Bank. iii Table of ConTenTs AcRonyms And ABBREviAtions vii AcKnoWlEdgmEnts viii ExEcUtivE sUmmARy ix 1. intRodUction And ovERviEW of AppRoAch 1 Summary of EACC Project and the Social Component 1 Participatory Scenario Development Approach as a Part of the EACC-Social Study 2 2. thEoREticAl foUndAtions 4 2.1 Overview of Participatory Scenario Development 4 2.2 Key Questions for EACC-Social Investigation and Implications for PSD Design 7 3. WoRKshop dEsign And pRocEss 10 3.1 Original Design of Workshops: Key Exercises 10 3.2 Capacity-Building of Country Teams 12 3.3 Workshop planning with In-country Consultant Teams and World Bank Staff 13 3.4 Design Revisions: Adaptation Options and Adaptation Pathways 14 3.5 Inputs to Workshops: Development and Use of Visualizations 16 Topographic Maps: 17 Social Issues Poster: 17 Impact and Adaptation Cards: 17 Climate Change Poster: 18 3.6 Other Inputs to Workshops: EACC Sector Presentations; Local PSD Results 19 3.7 Description of Workshop Participants 19 4. coUntRy REsUlts And discUssion 21 4.1 Results from Ghana 21 4.1.1 Understanding Current Challenges and Vulnerabilities 21 4.1.2 Current and future impacts of changing climate and climatic variability 22 iv p s d A p p R o A c h E s f o R i d E n t i f y i n g p R o - p o o R A d A p tAt i o n 4.1.3 Identifying Adaptation Options 23 4.1.4 Developing Adaptation Pathways and their Relevance to Vulnerable People 24 4.2 Results from Mozambique 26 4.2.1 Understanding Current Challenges and Vulnerabilities 26 4.2.2 Current and Future Impacts of Changing Climate and Climatic Variability 26 4.2.3 Identifying Adaptation Options 28 4.2.4 Developing Adaptation Pathways and their Relevance to Vulnerable People 29 4.3 Results from Bangladesh 30 4.3.1 Understanding Current Challenges and Vulnerabilities 30 4.3.2 Current And Future Impacts of Changing Climate and Climatic Variability 30 4.3.3 Identifying Adaptation Options 32 4.3.4 Developing Adaptation Pathways and their Relevance to Vulnerable People 33 4.4 Similarities and Differences Between PSD Workshop Processes and Results 34 4.5 Key Sectoral Themes Emerging 35 4.6 Cross-sectoral Emphases 36 4.7 Identification of Topics Addressed Briefly or not Arising in Workshops 36 4.8 Relative Prevalence of "Hard" versus "Soft" Adaptation Options 37 4.9 Discussions on Physical and Social Vulnerability 38 4.10 Sequencing, Leveraging and Tradeoffs among Adaptation Options 39 4.11 Policy and Institutions: Strengthening Adaptive Capacity 40 5. KEy mEthodologicAl AdvAncEs 42 5.1 Comments on Key Methodological Advances 42 5.2 Comparison with PSD Exercises Conducted Elsewhere 43 5.3 Scope for Integration with other Research Elements 44 6. conclUsions And REcommEndAtion 46 6.1 Summary of Findings 46 6.2 Congruence with National Plans including NAPAs 48 6.3 PSD Design Considerations and Key Elements of PSD Workshop for Climate Adaptation 49 6.4 Recommendations for Pro-Poor Adaptation in Workshop Countries 51 6.5 Recommendations on Integrating PSD Approaches with other Research Tools 52 6.6 Recommendations on Use of PSD Approaches in Donor and National Planning Contexts 52 REfEREncEs 54 AppEndicEs 56 Appendix 1. List of Visualizations Developed 56 Appendix 2. Example of Participant Handout (Bangladesh) 57 Appendix 3. Sample Workshop Agenda (First National Workshop) 61 Appendix 4. Sample Workshop Agenda (Second National Workshop) 61 Appendix 5. Sample Local Workshop Agenda 62 Appendix 6. Email Update Provided to all Global Teams (August 2009) 63 Appendix 7. Excerpts from Commentary Provided to Support PSD Workshops in Ethiopia 65 d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s v TaBLeS table 3.1 list of psd Workshops conducted Between June­october, 2009 20 table 4.1 Key drivers of vulnerability to climate change in ghana 21 table 4.2 Key impacts and their consequences 23 table 4.3 Key Elements of the Adaptation for ghana 25 table 4.4 Key impacts and Associated consequences of climate change in mozambique 27 table 4.5 proposed Adaptation pathways (per sector) for mozambique 29 table 4.6 Key drivers of vulnerability to climate change in Bangladesh 31 table 4.7 national Adaptation pathways for Bangladesh 33 table 4.8 overview of Adaptation Actions in Agriculture and Water Resource management in the studied countries 35 table 4.9 Examples of complementarities between hard and soft Adaptation measures in Agriculture and Water Resources management in the three countries 37 table 4.10 Examples of hard and soft Adaptation measures in Agriculture and Water Resources management in the three countries 38 table 4.11 connecting Adaptation Responses focused on Water management, Agriculture and social security in the studied countries 39 table 6.1 overview of short-measures in all three c 49 FigureS figure 1.1. schematic methodology (Economics of Adaptation to climate change study) 2 figure 2.1. Examples of outcomes of vision development in hungary and for Asia. 8 figure 3.1. main Elements of the psd Workshop design 11 figure 3.2. future vision (left) and impacts of climate change and Adaptation options (right) for northwest of Bangladesh (2050) 12 figure 3.3. psd Workshop structure for phase ii Workshops 15 figure 3.4. Examples of impact and Adaptation cards Used in ghana 18 vii aCronyms and abbreviaTions EIA Environment Impact Assessment GCM General Circulation Model GHGs Greenhouse Gases GIS Geographic Information System IISD International Institute for Sustainable Development IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change NAPA National Adaptation Program of Action NGO Non-governmental Organization PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper PSD Participatory Scenario Development SMEs Small and Medium-sized Enterprises SRES Special Report on Emission Scenarios UNEP United Nations Environment Program UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change viii aCKnoWledGmenTs The Participatory Scenario Development track of the EACC-Social study was led by Robin Mearns and Anne Kuriakose (SDV). The technical partner was the ESSA- The social component of the Economics of Adaptation IISD Consortium led by Livia Bizikova and Simon to Climate Change (EACC) study (hereafter `study') Mead. The larger team from ESSA Technologies Ltd. was developed through the joint efforts of the World included Samantha Boardley, Philip Bailey, Carol Bank Social Development (SDV) and Environment Murray and Lorne Greig. From the International Departments (ENV) and LCR, AFR, EAP, and SAR Institute of Sustainable Development (IISD) the team Regions of the World Bank; ESSA Technologies Ltd also included Dale Rothman. A separate training of and the International Institute for Sustainable trainers manual accompanies this report and is available Development (IISD), Canada; and research institutions at www.worldbank.org/eacc. in Bolivia, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Ghana, Mozambique, and Vietnam. The study was undertaken by a core team We could not have completed this work without the led by Robin Mearns and comprising Anne Kuriakose, continuous logistical support provided by Hawanty Carina Bachofen, Nilufar Ahmad and Minna Kononen Page (ENV), Grace Aguilar (ENV), Mustafa (all SDV). An overall synthesis report of all six country Pajazetovic, and Carmen Martinel (both SDV). We reports is available at www.worldbank.org/eacc. The gratefully acknowledge production management study was designed and implemented in close collabora- provided by Danielle Christophe (SDV) and Robert tion with the team leader for the overall EACC study Reinecke. (Sergio Margulis), and Ana Bucher, Laurent Cretegny, Urvashi Narain, Kiran Pandey, Robert Schneider (all Any remaining errors and omissions are entirely those ENV) and sector consultants. of the study team. ix exeCuTive summary actors of potential trade-offs and possible consequences of adaptation actions. A Joint Venture Consortium of ESSA Technologies The applied PSD approach was an effective way to Ltd. and the International Institute for Sustainable identify consequences of climate change and adaptation Development (IISD) was contracted by the World options that are relevant for the stakeholders. Bank's Social Development Group to design and imple- Furthermore, PSD allowed information to be gathered ment participatory scenario development (PSD) work- from a wide range of experiences in order to identify shops as part of the World Bank's Economics of the necessary types of adaptation measures, their spatial Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC) Study. The allocations, and experiences with existing climate ESSA-IISD consortium has been directly involved in change impacts. The PSD approach is also well suited the preparation and delivery of two sets of PSD work- to explore different pathways and to reconcile different shops (Phases I and II) in three countries: Mozambique, perspectives when addressing challenging issues includ- Ghana, and Bangladesh. The consortium has also ing climate change impacts, adaptations and vulnerabil- provided remote assistance for workshops in Ethiopia. ity. In donor and national planning contexts, PSD can be used to identify actions that provide multiple benefits Participatory scenario development (PSD) is a process in several sectors, exploring hard and soft adaptation that involves the participation of stakeholders to options so the supported actions are complementary, explore the future in a creative and policy-relevant way. creating scenarios on integration of adaptation PSD is used to identify the effects of alternative measures, vulnerability reduction and development responses to emerging challenges, to determine how priorities to increase their effectiveness and relevance. In different groups of stakeholders view the range of addition, PSD can be used to customize best practices possible policy and management options available to appropriate to the situations, institutions and available them, and identify the public policies, or investment capacities in each country. support needed to facilitate effective future actions. In this project, the primary function of the scenarios was Overall workshop design consisted of eight main build- to provide a framework and context within which ing blocks in Phase I workshops and seven blocks in different groups of stakeholders can better understand the Phase II workshops, applied in one-day or one- potential climate change impacts and to consider and and-a-half day workshops. Each workshop was discuss a range of possible adaptation options as well as comprised of activities including presentations, group the forms of public policy or investment support that work and plenary sessions to help participants move are needed to facilitate effective adaptation. PSD from current challenges to identifying pathways of approaches help to identify locally-relevant pathways of adaptation actions attainable under climate change autonomous and planned adaptation in the context of scenarios and impacts. In all three countries, the work- development choices and decisions, while informing shop began with presentations by local experts that x p s d A p p R o A c h E s f o R i d E n t i f y i n g p R o - p o o R A d A p tAt i o n characterized current challenges and a group activity It is crucial for all types of measures (development or focused on creating visions of future development for adaptation-driven) to involve traditional decision-making 2050. After outlining key aspects of climate change authorities and decentralized structures and to consider impacts in the countries, the groups estimated specific traditional practices and communities' social networks impacts of climate change on the future vision and when designing and implementing these responses. adaptation options necessary to maintain the identified vision. Finally, participants focused on creating an In order to move forward with the above-listed actions, adaptation pathway showing diverse priorities for adap- it is necessary to build capacities and develop new skills tation actions over time and also prerequisites, synergies and increase the number of people in local and national and trade-offs between the options and with other institutions, so decision-makers have the capacity to development priorities. Based on identified conse- design, implement and monitor the required actions. quences of climate change, development challenges and Gender inequalities and involvement of women in the priorities the following types of adaptation actions were decision making process is also essential in creating an identified: appropriate and effective response, as women's margin- alization in the decision making process is at odds with 1. Some of the planned development priorities and their primary role in many of the affected sectors. actions need to be accelerated and supported by investing in training and skill development to Specific adaptation actions were identified in key sectors increase capacities for adaptation (i.e., improving such as agriculture, forestry and water resources that basic health care services in areas prone to diseases result in direct impacts on human well-being, food secu- such as malaria and diarrhea, which may be exacer- rity, drinking water availability and migration. Overall, bated by climate change; and promoting agricul- participants suggested that adaptation measures in these tural product processing and off-farm income sectors include relatively high-cost investments such as generation). flood gates, dykes, flood-resistant roads, improving basic 2. Some of the on-going development programs and social services, but several soft investments were required actions dealing with current impacts need to be in food production, processing and storage, as well as intensified and applied to other regions that will be training in alternative skill sets. Significant improve- facing impacts in the future (i.e., alternative crops ments in governance including decentralization, and rainwater collection, are currently often small- increased participation, sustainable resource management scale initiatives that should be expanded in areas and secured land tenure were listed as necessary precon- where reduced rainfall and other impacts are ditions to increase the adaptive capacity of communities expected because of climate change, by investing in and to utilize adaptation actions. equipment and increased capacity) 3. Review and modification of current resource gover- In terms of pro-poor adaptation actions, it is important nance rules and policies, including their enforce- to understand the key challenges faced by impoverished ment, to assess their contributions to reducing or communities, including lack of food, deteriorating social increasing adaptive capacities (i.e., water, forest and networks, lack of basic services, housing and employ- fisheries management, including conservation and ment. Many of these challenges will be exacerbated by sustainable management) climate change, but responding directly to climate will 4. Measures that are not part of current development not likely create significant improvements in the liveli- plans, but that are needed because of unidentified hoods of poor people. Key adaptation priorities identi- consequences of climate change and lack of capaci- fied by participants include: effective early warning ties to address them (i.e., upgrading current dyke systems and disaster preparedness, improving post- heights, building flood-resistant roads, early warn- harvest services and water storage/water harvesting, and ing systems and emergency shelters) improving social protection, social services and safety nets with focus on urban and peri-urban areas. 1 1. inTroduCTion and overvieW 1 . 1 s u m m a ry o f e aC C pr o j eC T a nd Th e s o C i a l C o m p o n e nT of approaCh The overall objective of the EACC Study is to help In March 2009 a Joint Venture Consortium of ESSA decision makers in developing countries to better Technologies Ltd. and the International Institute for understand and assess the risks posed by climate Sustainable Development (IISD) was contracted by the change, and to cost, prioritize, sequence and integrate World Bank's Social Development Group to design and robust adaptation strategies into their development implement participatory scenario development (PSD) plans and budgets in a context of high uncertainty, workshops as part of the World Bank's Economics of competing needs and potentially high future costs. In Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC) Study. This is addition, it will inform the international community's part of a Global Study on the Economics of Adaptation efforts, including the United Nations Framework to Climate Change (EACC), being led by the Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Environment Department of the World Bank. The Bali Action Plan, to provide access to adequate, EACC study is focusing on seven countries: predictable and sustainable support and to provide Bangladesh, Bolivia, Ethiopia, Ghana, Mozambique, new and additional resources to help developing coun- Samoa and Vietnam. tries, in particular the most vulnerable, to meet the costs of adaptation. The focus of this work is on The ESSA-IISD consortium has been directly involved government-led adaptation, encompassing responses in the preparation and delivery of two sets of PSD ranging from planned activities such as public infra- workshops (Phases I and II) in three countries: structure investment, and changes in regulation or Mozambique, Ghana, and Bangladesh. After each social protection measures, to community level adapta- workshop, reports were developed outlining both tion decisions, all of which will be needed to respond applied approaches and outcomes of the workshops. to climate change in the context of other development The Phase II workshop reports also include outcomes challenges, and vulnerabilities, and existing develop- from field studies and local PSD workshops conducted ment planning. by local country teams in Ghana, Mozambique and Bangladesh. The consortium has also provided remote Key aspects of the Social Component of the EACC assistance for workshops in Ethiopia. study include the following (Kuriakose et al., 2009): 2 p s d A p p R o A c h E s f o R i d E n t i f y i n g p R o - p o o R A d A p tAt i o n · A focus on the local level to help understand local climate-sensitive livelihood sources (e.g., through costs and benefits. This is necessary to help inform livelihoods diversification). macro-level efforts to increase local adaptive capac- · Soft as well as hard adaptation options to help create ity by channeling investments where they are most comparative estimates of technological and infra- needed. structure-oriented adaptation options versus institu- · A focus on vulnerable and disadvantaged socioeconomic tional and educational or skills-based adaptation groups, as the most vulnerable groups are likely to options that are missing from current efforts on be those most dependent on a single or a narrow costing adaptation. range of climate-sensitive livelihood sources. · Ground-truthing analysis provided by the sectoral anal- Assessing the local-level costs and benefits of adap- yses focused on bottom-up approaches to inform tation responses is essential to understand how to technical and policy experts in their priority setting improve support for increased adaptive capacity of for planned adaptation interventions. the most disadvantaged groups. · Triangulation between different data sources because · Engaging vulnerable groups in collaborative analysis of the social component allows for validation of data what adaptation means in particular contexts and for through the triangulation from various sources, distinct groups of people by using participatory analysis including use of participatory methods, and quanti- to uncover what may be plausible means of adapting tative approaches. to these likely future climate trends as well as the pros and cons of alternative adaptation options. 1 . 2 pa rTi Ci paTo ry s Ce n a r i o · Building on existing adaptive responses to include the d e v e l o p m e nT a p p r o aC h a s a costs and benefits of existing adaptation practices pa rT o f Th e e aC C -s o C i a l s Tu d y and to scale up or multiply existing adaptation responses to create effective adaptation pathways; Participatory scenario development (PSD) is a process such pathways are likely to be those that progres- that involves the participation of stakeholders to sively reduce the degree of dependence on explore the future in a creative and policy-relevant way. fiGure 1.1. sChemaTiC meThodoloGy (eConomiCs of adapTaTion To ClimaTe ChanGe sTudy) Climate change projections identification of alternative participatory scenarios physical impacts adaptation measures with vulnerable groups economic and social economic and social assessments of impacts assessments of adaptation Costs and benifits of adaptation · sequencing (priority) · robustness · distribution normal macroeconomic analysis Source: eaCC website d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 3 PSD is used to identify the effects of alternative how different groups of stakeholders especially the responses to emerging challenges, to determine how vulnerable and disadvantaged groups view the range of different groups of stakeholders view the range of possible adaptation options open to them; and the possible policy and management options available to forms of public policy or investment support that are them, and identify appropriate public policies and needed to facilitate effective adaptation including both investment support necessary to facilitate effective technological and infrastructure-oriented adaptation future actions. options and necessary institutional and educational/ skills-based development based on the views number of In this project, the primary function of the scenarios is stakeholders' groups in the studied countries. to provide a framework and context within which different groups of stakeholders can better understand To facilitate this, PSD workshops were undertaken potential climate change impacts and consider and with multiple stakeholders, including local experts, discuss a range of possible adaptation options, as well as government officials and representatives of social the forms of public policy or investment support that groups particularly vulnerable to the consequences of are needed to facilitate effective adaptation. PSD climate change. Country workshops mapped out alter- approaches help to identify locally relevant pathways of native, robust adaptation pathways that combine a autonomous and planned adaptation in the context of variety of adaptation options in plausible sequences. development choices and decisions, while informing Each of these alternative pathways, in turn, will likely actors of potential trade-offs, and possible consequences have different implications both for the overall costs of of adaptation actions. adaptation, and for the distribution of costs and bene- fits among groups within society. These issues were An important aspect of this applied research approach then further investigated and validated with the is to determine: stakeholders. 4 2. TheoreTiCal foundaTions · aid in recognition of "weak signals" of change; · avoid being caught off guard--"live the future in advance"; 2.1 overvieW of parT iCipaTory · challenge "mental maps"; sC enario d evelopmen T · understand the world better, and make better decisions; When focusing on developing adaptation responses to · raise awareness; climate change, efforts may target the global, continen- · test strategies for robustness using "what if " tal or country scale to attempt to determine the neces- questions; sary resources, including overall demand for · provide a common language; and technologies, money and information, but it is also · stimulate discussion and creative thinking. beneficial to investigate the views or needs of local communities and their diversity, capacity and other The ultimate aim, in most cases, is to: development priorities when identifying relevant adap- tation options. Decreasing human vulnerability by · provide better policy or decision support; and adapting to climate change is a multifaceted undertak- · stimulate engagement in the process of change. ing. Challenges not only lie in the physical elements of adaptation design, but also in understanding the human In scenario development, we distinguish two basic dimensions of climate change impacts. Scenario methodological approaches--forecasting and backcast- approaches can be used to assist in linking climate ing. Forecasting methodologies are often utilized for impacts information with local and regional scale adap- envisioning future development based on past experi- tation mechanisms by connecting them with overall ences within the boundaries of existing social institu- development challenges and priorities. tions (Tansey et al., 2002). Unlike predictive forecasting methodologies, another scenario development approach Scenarios provide an opportunity to explore the future that does not reveal what the future will likely be, but in the context of climate change at different scales. indicates the relative feasibility and implications of Scenarios are neither predictions of socio-economic different policy goals (Durbach & Stewart, 2004). development nor impacts of changing climate; rather Backcasting is an explicitly normative approach involv- they are plausible descriptions of how the future may ing working backwards from a particular desired future possibly develop, using recognizable signals from the set of goals to the present, in order to determine the present and assumptions about how current trends will physical feasibility of the future goals and the policy progress (UNEP, 2002). Scenarios can be used for measures that would be required to reach it (Robinson, multiple purposes, including to ( Jaeger et al., 2000): 2003). In this framework, the desired future conditions d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 5 are envisioned and steps are then defined to attain those providing for more effective implementation of conditions, rather than taking steps that are merely a decisions taken by providing greater legitimacy and continuum of present methods extrapolated into the justification. future. Backcasting is particularly useful when (Holmberg and Robert, 2000; Dreborg, 1996): To date, scenario approaches in climate change research have mainly focused on impacts and mitigation actions · the problem is complex; to identify scenarios of potential levels of greenhouse · major changes are needed; gases (GHGs), based on projections of future socio- · dominant trends are part of the problem; and economic development, global emission scenarios · the scope is wide enough and the time horizon is (SRES scenarios) and to investigate potential feasibility long enough to leave considerable room for deliber- of implementation of different mitigation targets and ate choice. actions. The IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) provided explicit linkages between In order to fully explore opportunities from scenario development choices and the level of GHGs, illustrat- approaches, growing attention is being devoted not only ing that development decisions could considerably alter to the developed scenarios, but also to the scenario the level of future emissions and thus climate change development process. This includes increasing emphasis impacts (Nakicenovic 2000). In the context of climate on stakeholders' involvement in developing scenarios - change mitigation, the ULYSSES project involved citi- referred to as the participatory scenario development zens in climate policy debates in an urban context (PSD). Over the last years, a number of arguments in (Kasemir et al., 2003) and in the COOL project policy- favor of participation in scenario development have been makers, business and industry representatives and developed in the literature, where participation helps to NGOs discussed potential scenarios of long-term (Volkery et al., 2008; Patel et al., 2007; Stirling, 2006): options for far-reaching GHG emission reductions (Kerkhof and Wieczorek, 2005). Recently, Shaw et al. · support the democratic rational for intrinsic social (2008) applied the PSD process in British Columbia, desirability of equity of access, empowerment of Canada, which focused on development scenarios of process, and equality of outcome, with the aim of local futures under different IPCC scenarios. In this countering the exercise of power; context, the research team and local stakeholders devel- · give access to practical knowledge and experience, oped visualized future socio-economic scenarios based learn about new problem perceptions and identify on the IPCC SRES scenarios. new challenging questions; · gather more diverse, extensive and context-specific Combining qualitative stakeholder and quantitative bodies of knowledge in order to take more careful expert information (i.e. climate change projections and and explicit account of divergent values and inter- impacts) in PSD offers unique opportunities to mix ests; as such, participation is reasoned as being a good data, scientific rigor, imagination and expertise means to an end rather than an end in itself; from different perspectives (Volkery et al., 2008). · bridge gaps between the scientific communities and Qualitative techniques help to encourage discussion, governments, businesses, interest groups or citizen, deliberation, exchange of thoughts and identify different thus providing a reality check for research assump- views on the types of responses to climate change avail- tions and methodology; able, based on stakeholders' views, experiences and · improve communication between scientists and resources. The desire is also to reveal deeper meanings stakeholders and facilitate collaboration and consen- and values, facilitate the framing and re-framing of sus-building on problem-solving and; perceptions and conceptions of problems, resulting ulti- · increase the salience and legitimacy of the scenario mately in greater social learning (Patel et al., 2007). and thus the acceptance among end-users, which However, currently available studies show different helps maintain public credibility and trust in the degrees of participation in scenario development varying developed scenarios and involved institutions; thus from involving stakeholders as reviewers of the scenarios 6 p s d A p p R o A c h E s f o R i d E n t i f y i n g p R o - p o o R A d A p tAt i o n developed by experts to having stakeholders developing · Involvement is a measure of whether there was suc- and assessing the feasibility of the scenarios. These cessful transfer of information to the dialogue par- different levels of participation also include consultations ticipants from the scientists or the technical staff. with stakeholders on specific local challenges and drivers In other words, did the technical or background to guide the experts' scenario development and to materials teach new concepts or knowledge to the provide an important "reality check" for the researchers participants? Also, is there a balance between dis- about developed scenarios (Schroter et al., 2005). tance and involvement?1 Experiences from case studies conducted on climate In the context of climate change adaptation, creating change in Europe and North America, show that to be future scenarios can lead to the identification of the effective in designing responses to climate change, the range of possible adaptation options, as well as the participatory process should involve local knowledge in forms of policy or investment support that are needed creating locally-relevant responses that are the combina- to facilitate effective adaptation, but also to the realiza- tion of development choices, adaptation options, and tion that current operational and planning practices may capacities. Furthermore, the process should help to need to be re-examined, and current vulnerabilities create learning opportunities for stakeholders about the reconsidered, as part of a larger process of defining and impacts of a changing climate and their implications at implementing local-scale desired development priorities. the local level. It is desirable that the PSD process is The following three questions become especially impor- designed in a way that promotes collaboration between tant (Bizikova et al., 2009): researchers and stakeholders to help balance the biophysical risks associated with climate change and the · What if? In a scenario of climate change and devel- social risks and issues such as local well-being, capacity opment, what kinds of local impacts may occur? and long-term development. Integrating climate Without absolute certainty regarding future climate impacts and adaptation into local development by using conditions, can we consider consequences of various scenario approaches provides opportunities to express combinations of climate change and local develop- uncertainty surrounding climate change as a degree of ment choices? choice that exists for stakeholders with respect to local · So what? Do the impacts of climate change scenar- development choices (Bizikova et al., in press). In this ios make a difference? When these impacts are pre- way, stakeholders may express their views about possible sented to stakeholders, such as farmers, community responses instead of perceiving uncertainties of climate members, irrigation purveyors, municipal planners, change projections as an obstacle for action. business leaders or engineers, the dialogue can turn to whether or not the identified impacts make a dif- To ensure effective participation, it is also necessary to ference to their vision of the future. Current plan- think about appropriate time horizons and how the ning processes may consider population growth or climate projects and model outcomes' are presented to changes in important industries or market condi- stakeholders. Van de Kerkhof (2004) defines these tions. The climate change impact scenarios repre- elements as the issues of distance and involvement: sent a new set of climate statistics translated into a physical (and possibly an economic) impact. Could · In the case of distance, the question is, does the climate change impacts hinder long-term efforts to approach enable participants to distance themselves meet local development goals? from short-term concerns and focus on wider long- · What can be done? How can development priorities term issues? For example, consider a situation in be defined for the study area? What adaptation which researchers want to discuss climate change measures should be considered? How can these with a business owner or a manager of a reservoir, become "mainstreamed" who have their particular planning horizon. Can the exercise enable them to think outside of a near- 1 This could be also enhanced by using visualizations and images to visualize climate change scenarios and response options and in this term operational frame and think in terms of 30 to was enhancing relevance to decision-makers and community interests 50 years in the future? (Shaw et al., 2009). d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 7 into development decisions? How can development biophysical indicators such as future rainfall measures, emission reduction and necessary adapta- patterns, sea level rise, or changes in the number of tion measures become part of this without creating consecutive hot or cold days be addressed within a new vulnerability? If climate change scenarios can the future scenarios? This includes identifying be translated into parameters that are relevant to impacts of climate change on the local environment stakeholders in their planning context, then it and human well-being and then identifying adapta- should be possible to start a dialogue about adapta- tion options and "so what" questions. tion, mitigation, and development that would be 5. Identifying policies and developing strategies: If different from the initial planning scenario, but still we want to be effective in responding to the scenar- be plausible. ios, both short and long-term actions need to be identified. This includes identifying policies that Based on our experiences and guidance from the above- create the environment needed for moving from discussed literature, we can summarize the key steps of scenarios and identified adaptation measures to the PSD in this particular context of climate change in concrete actions. the following steps: 2 . 2 K e y Q u e sTi o n s f o r e a C C -s o Ci a l 1. Defining the scope of the scenario process: i n v e sTi G aTi o n a n d i m p l iC aTi o n s Changing climate will affect diverse areas and f o r p s d d e s iG n sectors in different ways and the impacts will increase with progressing climate change. For A growing number of studies about climate change example, a generic question could be: under avail- impacts and adaptations are available, but often they do able projections of climate change, how might the not address changing local development choices and community adapt its plans and policies to make the priorities, or describe the influence that such changes most of their potential future developments? might have on local adaptation. As noted in Robinson 2. Identifying key factors shaping the local develop- et al. (2006) and Bizikova et al. (2008), there are two ment: Gathering information about our current ways to think about the linkages between responses to system will help us to understand the feasibility of climate change and development: 1) to focus on identi- certain measures in the short and long-terms and fying the responses to climate change and then main- the capacity gaps with regard to development and streaming them into development plans (seeing adaptation needs. Key factors may include economic development through climate change lens), and 2) to sectors, population changes and migration, access to emphasize that climate change responses are rooted in basic services, poverty levels and available the existence of different socioeconomic and technolog- infrastructure. ical development paths (seeing climate change through 3. Developing scenarios: Based on discussions of how a development lens). This means that climate change the identified factors will evolve in the future, iden- responses become part of a portfolio of measures that tifying a long-term target vision and a series of represent a new development pathway. This could sequential decisions to attain that vision.2 Only include, for instance, specific actions designed to reduce internally consistent combinations, i.e., those where high intensity development in vulnerable areas such as developments in one factor did not contradict high risk zones for flooding or drought, to promote developments in another, are considered. For the development of basic services and to create opportuni- development of scenarios different techniques can ties for off-farm income and ensure access to markets. be used such as collages or index cards (Figure 2.1). In practice, however, it has not been easy to effectively 4. Introducing boundary conditions and reviewing link local and regional development with climate scenarios: The identified scenarios should be care- fully examined for their potential to determine 2 A vision refers to a moving target guiding the self organizing, innova- climate change impacts on the attainment of local tive forces of a society, forces that otherwise would remain diffuse. It differs from a goal in that it is a tangible image of a future society development visions by creating a dialogue on the without being subject to fierce arguments about exact definitions that "what if " question. Can the change or trend in the characterize the operationalization of goals ( Jaeger et al., 2000). 8 p s d A p p R o A c h E s f o R i d E n t i f y i n g p R o - p o o R A d A p tAt i o n fiGure 2.1. examples of ouTComes of vision developmenT in hunGary and for asia. of vision development in Hungary and for Asia. /IISD (2005). or EACC-Social Investigation and Implications for out climate change impacts and adaptations are available, but often they do opment choices and priorities, or describe the influence that such changes As noted in Robinson et al. (2006) and Bizikova et al. (2008), there are two between responses to climate change and development: 1) to focus on ate change and then mainstreaming them into development plans (seeing nge lens), and 2) to emphasize that climate change responses are rooted in Source: bizikova et al., 2009 and unep/iisd (2005). onomic and technological development paths (seeing climate change s means that climate change responses become part of a portfolio of Figure 2.1 Examples of outcomes of instance, specific actions velopment pathway. This could include, forvision development in Hungary and for Asia. Source: Bizikova et areas and UNEP/IISD risk zones for flooding or development in vulnerableal., 2009 such as high (2005). of basic services and to create opportunities for off-farm income and d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 9 change impacts and adaptation and allow long-term 2. What are the key sectoral adaptation measures development priorities to shape adaptation responses. (including infrastructure, agriculture, forestry and health care) and key institutional, capacity and skill Therefore, in this project we considered both short and development measures needed to promote effective long-term development priorities and the identification adaptation, especially for vulnerable groups? of climate change impacts and adaptation. The key 3. What are the major trade-offs and synergies questions that guided the workshops can be summa- between identified adaptation options on vulnerable rized as follows: and disadvantaged groups? 4. How can adaptation options be linked to an inter- 1. What are the adaptation options to the impacts of nally consistent and robust sequence of actions over climate change that are considered relevant for the short, medium and long-time horizons that respond stakeholders in the context of other development to current and future impacts of a changing climate, priorities and challenges? Are there specific options while paying attention to the overall development that are important in order to address the needs of context of the specific location? vulnerable and disadvantaged groups? 10 3. WorKshop desiGn and impacts. The key elements of the workshop are presented in 3.1. proCess This approach was applied to Phase 1 workshops as a 3.1 ori G inal d esiGn of WorKsh o p s : one-day workshop in Ghana and Bangladesh and as a Key e xer Cises 1.5 day workshop in Mozambique. In all three countries, the workshop began with introductions, an overview of Based on the key elements of scenario development, the content of the day and information about the major lessons learned on participation during scenario general format in which the workshop's activities would development and the focus of EACC-Social compo- occur. Following a brief presentation of the agenda, nent, the objectives of the PSD (Phase I) workshops participants were informed that much of the day would were defined as follows: be spent in small group discussion, and that the outcomes of each break-out session would be used to 1. To identify existing and alternative adaptation inform a broader, more inter-regional plenary discussion options which are relevant for the different liveli- of national adaptation in the latter half of the afternoon. hoods and correspond to the current and future During each workshop, participants were divided into development challenges that the different regions four groups, which were divided by easily recognizable/ and vulnerable groups are, or likely will be facing commonly used divisions that participants could easily based on the knowledge and experiences of various understand. The Bangladesh working groups were stakeholders. divided by region (Coastal, Northeast, Northwest, and 2. To identify integrated and robust adaptation path- Urban), as well as the Ghana groups (Northern ways that (i) prioritize adaptation measures and Savannah, Forest, Transitional and Coastal Savannah). desired investments; and (ii) recognize synergies The Mozambique working groups represented liveli- and trade-offs between these investments. hood groups (Fisheries, Agriculture, Forestry and Trade). 3. Explore what types of sectoral and institutional measures stakeholders feel would be required to The workshop included presentations by local experts' to facilitate the integration of adaptation actions into characterize current challenges, present climate impacts local projects and practices. and outline key aspects of adaptation to climate change, followed by a discussion on developing a future vision The overall workshop design (Phase I) consisted of (elements no. 2 and no. 3). Each group was charged with eight main building blocks. Each of them involves the task of developing a vision for one of the regions or different activities including presentation, group work livelihood groups. We also encouraged the groups to and plenary sessions to help participants to move focus on the situation of vulnerable people during the from current challenges to future visions that are visioning exercise. The groups used large Post-it notes to attainable under climate change scenarios and record each future vision until 2050. Each group d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 11 described their vision in plenary. In defining their vision, In considering the potential impacts, the groups were participants were asked to use a 2050 time horizon, and also asked to suggest relevant adaptation options that to reflect on long-term development goals and aspira- might help to mitigate any adverse impacts and capitalize tions. The focus was on depicting an optimistic, yet real- on any opportunities presented. Once again, participants istic future for the people considered most representative summarized major impacts and recommended adaptation of the region, giving particular emphasis to vulnerable options on a sheet of flipchart paper (Figure 3.2). groups such as women, children, and the rural poor.3 The groups then used large colored index cards to record the Before presenting their impacts and adaptation options key aspects of each vision, and arranged them on a large back to plenary, each group was first asked to think about piece of flipchart paper to be presented and discussed in an "adaptation pathway" that could accommodate all of plenary session (Figure 3.1). Finally, groups were asked to the suggested adaptation options. Groups were encour- summarize their vision in a clear and concise vision aged to start thinking about the relationship between statement of no more than 2­3 sentences each. different adaptation options, as they occur in the near, medium, and longer term futures. Once participants had Following the development and brief presentations of a chance to reflect on the pathway exercise in their the visions for each region, presentations by local groups, they presented their impacts and adaptation post- experts attempted to challenge the visions by presenting ers as well as their adaptation pathway to the plenary. A projected climatic boundary conditions out to the year concluding, plenary discussion was held focused on 2050. Based on this, the groups estimated specific prerequisites for implementation of identified actions. impacts of climate change on the future vision. The focus was on assessing the attainability of the vision under the boundary conditions represented by the 3 See Facilitator's Briefing Pack (p. 10) for a more detailed description of impacts of a changing climate. the Vision Exercise. fiGure 3.1. main elemenTs of The psd WorKshop desiGn 1 8 Introductions; Reflect on the context setting; day overview of day 2 7 Review the Reporting back from current groups and situation discussion Engagement and participation 6 3 Develop adaptation Develop a vision pathway of the future 4 5 Challenge the Review, identify & vision with boundary evaluate impacts conditions ­ and adaptation climate and options socioeconomic 12 p s d A p p R o A c h E s f o R i d E n t i f y i n g p R o - p o o R A d A p tAt i o n fiGure 3.2. fuTure vision (lefT) and impaCTs of ClimaTe ChanGe and adapTaTion opTions (riGhT) for norThWesT of banGladesh (2050) 3.2 CapaCiTy- buildinG of CounTry support in this area if they are to engage in further Teams workshops. A major focus of this project was to build capacity of The capacity-building was adjusted to the levels of country teams so that they have the necessary skills to experience in the particular country. Major capacity conduct further PSD workshops. Overall, the country building activities included: teams have necessary skills and capacities needed to conduct the PSD workshop; however, the levels of · a facilitation training to help each country to facili- capacity vary between countries. Some country team tate participatory workshops, which included train- members have been involved in participatory projects ing techniques for small group facilitation, such as participatory poverty appraisals, food security moderating session times and coordinating diversity assessment and focus groups. Some members of the of activities including presentations with groups country teams are more focused on working with activities and plenary sessions; models and data and have had less experience with · a visualization training to help participants use the workshop facilitation. A major challenge of PSD work- developed visualizations and basic information on shops is the interdisciplinary nature that requires a how to create their own materials, for example, how broad-range of input information such as economic and to create a basic GIS-map from available online social projections, outputs from climate models and sources and national data sets. GIS training was not projections of climatic variables over long time hori- given; and zons. This information needs to be presented in a way · an introduction of different participatory that participants can understand and applied in the approaches including group activities that can be context of the regions or livelihood groups that they are used to elicit stakeholders' views about climate focused on. It should be noted that it was not within change, future development and adaptation the scope to build capacity in visualization develop- options. We also discussed the ESSA-IISD team ment, and therefore country teams will need further experiences with these types of approaches and d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 13 how they could be applied in the context of climate included changes in reviewing the current situation, change. selecting sectors for the future vision and outlining adap- tation pathways. This training also included in-depth Finally, lessons learned from the interaction and capac- discussion about the possible focus of the future work- ity-building activities with the country teams are shops including geographical and sectoral issues. summarized in the PSD Capacity Development Manual. The manual provides a detailed outline of how In general, workshops need to address geographically- to design, organize and implement a PSD workshop specific socio-economic issues and also climate impacts based on experiences and lessons learned throughout that can significantly differ between and even within this project. countries. The workshops also need to provide compa- rable results for each country and across involved coun- 3.3 Wor K shop planninG WiTh tries. We made modifications to the agenda to reflect on i n-C oun Try ConsulTanT Tea m s country needs, to define groups based on the situation and World ban K sTaff in the country and in some cases country teams also created a list of suggested sectors for the workshop so Discussions and planning with in-country teams and each group could focus on the similar sectors. World Bank staff began several weeks before the actual workshop by email and phone conferences. The focus of During days two and three, we reviewed and devel- these discussions were to inform country teams about oped key facilitation skills and gave guidance on group the up-coming missions and the workshops, identify work and key issues for plenary sessions. We also country teams' basic preferences in the outlined work- shared our lessons learned from similar workshops in shop agenda, assess data availability for visualizations which IISD and ESSA members were involved in the and decide next steps in the workshop preparation. past. Participants discussed visualizations and informa- tion needed to develop the scenarios. We concluded In each country, the total activities spanned one week, the discussions by identifying key visualizations, including pre-workshop trainings, usually a one day changes in the agenda to accommodate these visualiza- workshop and final day focused on evaluating the work- tions and specific issues in the countries that need to shop. The training focused on familiarizing the repre- be considered in order to ensure successful workshop sentatives from the countries with the workshop process delivery. and content; reviewing necessary facilitation skills and discussing roles of visualizations in delivering the work- Although the five day Phase I mission was in part a shops and in helping participants to understand current training and capacity building mission, the exchange of and future challenges of climate change. These discus- knowledge and ideas was a two-way process, which sions were revisited after the workshop on day five to resulted in a number of suggested improvements to modify the workshop agenda and to identify targeted workshop preparation, design, and outcomes. Below is a visualizations both for the local and national levels summary of key lessons and recommendations for based on the experiences of the country representatives future workshops. during the completed workshop on day four. Workshop planning and preparation: During days one to three, we provided a detailed over- view of the workshop elements with examples of their · Communications and preparations between in- applications in different contexts along with suggestions country teams and out-of-country teams must start for potential changes to accommodate their application well in advance of the mission dates and continue in different countries. We also provided the participants on a regular basis both pre- and post-mission. with specific examples of potential outputs that will be Country teams should be informed of expected created during each activity. Participants shared their roles and responsibilities and provided all relevant experiences with similar activities and made suggestions materials at minimum one (1) week prior to mission for modification based on the country context. This dates in order to review and comment. 14 p s d A p p R o A c h E s f o R i d E n t i f y i n g p R o - p o o R A d A p tAt i o n · Workshop planning meetings should take place at a based on the knowledge and experiences of various neutral, third-party location, so as to ensure maxi- stakeholders. mum participation and availability of all members 2. To identify integrated and robust adaptation path- involved in the workshop planning sessions, with ways which (i) prioritize adaptation measures and minimum distractions. desired investments and (ii) recognize synergies and · More individual preparation time needs to be pro- trade-offs between these investments. vided prior to the workshop, particularly for the prep- 3. To explore types of sectoral and institutional aration of presentations. It may be better to schedule measures stakeholders feel would be required to less time for group work and meetings on the days facilitate the integration of adaptation actions into leading up to the workshop, allowing for individuals local projects and practices. or smaller groups to attend to specific tasks. 4. To validate and prioritize the outcomes from previ- ous workshops especially those focusing on key Workshop design: impacts of climate change and potential adaptation actions needed to address the impacts from the · Overall, it remains difficult to adequately cover all perspective of diverse livelihoods, regions and of the material in a one-day workshop, particularly vulnerable groups. as each activity requires progressively more thought and could benefit from longer periods of reflection During the Phase II workshops, the key focus was to and discussion. move from identifying a list of impacts of climate · The plenary discussion throughout the day, and change and potential adaptation responses, to develop- closing comments from each activity, need to con- ing an adaptation pathway. An adaptation pathway is an tinually relate the discussion from the previous internally consistent and robust sequence of adaptation activity to the next activity, and to the broader actions to be taken over a particular time period at a objectives of the workshop. This will serve to national, regional or local level. It responds to the improve participants' understanding of the purpose current and future impacts of a changing climate, of, and the relationship between, each activity paying attention to the overall development context of throughout the day. the specific location. Devoting more time to creating the pathway involved facilitating effective input from 3 . 4 d e s i G n r e v i s i o n s : a d a p TaT i o n participants on priority adaptation interventions, syner- o p T i o n s a n d a d a p TaT i o n gies, trade-offs, and implications for vulnerable groups paT h Way s over time, in order to maintain and achieve existing development goals for the country. The workshop A major impetus for revising the original workshop design was streamlined into a 7-step model (Figure 3.3). design was the time constraint to complete all the 8-steps of the original PSD workshops, particularly the In addition to improving the focus on adaptation and limited time available to discuss the adaptation path- adaptation pathways, as well as the use of more interac- ways exercise. We considered it useful to design the tive and engaging impact and adaptation options cards workshops in the Phase II in a way that built on the (presented in the next chapter), results from local and results of the Phase I workshop and local PSD work- regional Phase I workshops were integrated into the shops conducted in the countries. Given the modified Phase II national workshops. Although the specifics of framework for the Phase II PSD workshops, the objec- how each country can best integrate local level results tives of the workshop were revised as follows: differs from country to country, the ESSA/IISD team used recorded results from Phase I workshops to design 1. To identify existing and alternative adaptation the impact and adaptation options cards to be used by options which are relevant for the different liveli- groups in Phase II. hoods and correspond to the current and future development challenges that the different regions In this revised workshop, participants were not tasked and vulnerable groups are or likely will be facing to develop their own future visions. d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 15 fi Gure 3.3. psd WorKshop sTruCTure for phase ii WorKshops 16 p s d A p p R o A c h E s f o R i d E n t i f y i n g p R o - p o o R A d A p tAt i o n Instead, the workshop began with two presentations on This resulted in the development of a national adapta- socio-economic projections and climate change, which tion pathway using the prioritized interventions from helped to provide context and structure for the remain- each of the groups. Groups then reviewed the pathways der of workshop activities. These steps were comple- and identified specific actions required to ensure that mented with a discussion on vulnerability and the needs of vulnerable groups are adequately addressed, vulnerable groups. The purpose of the discussion was to and not excluded from the benefits of potential adapta- introduce a vulnerability framework and its key tion actions. elements in order to help inform and guide workshop activities, ensuring that participants were thinking about 3 . 5 i n p uTs To W o rK s h o p s : development challenges and the projected changes in d e v e l o p m e nT a n d us e o f the context of those most vulnerable. As a result, imme- v i s u a l i z aTi o n s diately following the presentation on socio-economic trends and climate projections, participants were led A visualization is an image, diagram, or animation, through an exercise of identifying key criteria for defin- which can provide a strong means to communicate ing vulnerability in the country otherwise broad-brush information on impacts and vulnerability to future climate change.4 A substantial In order to indentify how climatic changes impact literature is now developing on the visualization of the different regions, participants were divided into groups impacts of climate change, much of which can vary based on geographical areas (Ghana and Bangladesh) dramatically in associated cost and time to develop, data and livelihood groups (Mozambique); each group intensity, and visual impact. However, in general, the use received a large-scale topographic map of the area to of visualization material allows for the summary of large identify the vulnerable areas and by using a set of amounts of technical information for use by non-tech- impact cards followed by a set of adaptation cards nical audiences in a manner which is engaging and outlining the major projected impacts of climate change emotive in driving behavioral change. and potential responses. The cards were designed using data collected from previous workshops. The purpose of For the purposes of the PSD workshops, visualization the impact cards is two-fold: materials were used to help participants construct future scenarios (or "visions"), identify projected climate i. to help illustrate/visualize the potential impacts of a change impacts using different spatial scales, and changing climate and adaptation actions at the explore adaptation options to address adverse impacts. individual, household and community scale (along- The development and use of different visualization side the severity of the impact, as well as secondary materials depended on the availability and accessibility and tertiary impacts; and of the necessary data, software, hardware, and technical ii. to help structure groups' discussions on relating key skills, as well as available time and budget. impacts and adaptation with key vulnerable areas for their particular livelihood group. A detailed description of the visualization materials used in these workshops, along with suggestions for Once all relevant and significant adaptation options other materials, along with information on the source of were identified for each region/sector, participants were data can be found in the Capacity Development asked to select six adaptation options that they priori- Manual that accompanies this report. tized as the most critical given limited resources. Once selected, participants were asked to prioritize them based In the series of six workshops undertaken in this proj- on what they perceived needed to happen first within ect, the following visualization materials were used: the short-term, followed by the medium- and long-term. The resultant "pathway", once combined with the priori- ties of all five groups, formed one internally consistent 4 Thornton, P. (2009), "Visualizing Vulnerability and Impacts of and robust sequence of adaptation actions to be taken Climate Change", International Development Research Centre over time at a national, regional or local level. (IDRC) Working Paper Number 23, Ottawa, Canada, March 2009. d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 17 1. Topographic Maps social issues poster 2. Social Issues Poster 3. Impact and Adaptation Cards Where the data existed, social issues posters were used to 4. Climate Change Projections Poster provide a comprehensive overview of key development indicators for the country or particular regions of the For the Phase II workshops, all of this information, country. The purpose of a social issues poster was to pres- except the impact and adaptation cards, was also ent participants with a baseline "snapshot", or "picture", of presented to each participant in a participant handout, the current development challenges facing an area which also gave an overview of the EACC project, (poverty, health, education, etc.), before presenting them explained concepts such as PSD and vulnerability. with the associated challenges related to a changing This was a useful reference to participants both during climate. The intention was to help participants under- the workshops and after. For general reference stand that climate change is not occurring in isolation of throughout the day, a large poster of the workshop other social and environmental stressors. Rather, climate structure (3.3) was also developed for the Phase II change will react alongside existing development chal- workshops. This was also included in the participant lenges, and in most cases, will act to exacerbate the exist- handout. ing stresses on both the natural and human environments. Topographic maps impact and adaptation Cards Topographic maps typically contain common natural In designing a PSD workshop, impact and adaptation and cultural features, including administrative bound- cards (in place of traditional brainstorming techniques aries, place names (e.g. cities), major transportation and mental mapping) can be used to introduce an networks, water bodies, relief or elevation, and various engaging style by which impacts and adaptation options other country-specific layers. In a PSD workshop, can be quickly identified by participants in an interac- topographic maps provided a user-friendly reference tive and timely way. map that both the facilitator and the participants could refer to throughout the day. In particular, facili- In the phase II workshops, following the identification tators used the topographic map when discussing of vulnerable areas, groups were provided first with a set regional distribution of social indicators, areas most of impact cards followed by a set of adaptation cards vulnerable to climate hazards and impacts, and loca- outlining the major projected impacts of climate change tions of existing adaptation options and/or pilot proj- and potential responses (Figure 3.4). ects within the country. Workshops generally had a large topographic map of the whole country, and those The cards were designed using data collected from workshops with regional rather than sectoral break- phase I workshops. The purpose of the impact cards out groups (Ghana and Bangladesh) had smaller was two-fold: regional topographic maps that they used in their group-work activities. 1. to help in illustrating/visualizing the potential impacts of a changing climate and adaptation In addition, topographic maps were sometimes used as actions at the individual, household and community part of the ice-breaking activity at the beginning of the scale (alongside the severity of the impact, as well as workshop day, whereby participants can use the map to secondary and tertiary impacts; and indicate where they are from, where their family is 2. to help structure groups' discussions on relating key from, or where in the country they feel they are most impacts and adaptation with key vulnerable areas knowledgeable about. The result is a quick overview of for their particular livelihood group. the distribution of geographic knowledge and/or inter- ests in the room. This information was sometimes used Once all relevant and significant adaptation options to help divide groups based on areas that participants were identified for each zone, participants were asked to might be most knowledgeable about. select six adaptation options that they prioritized as the 18 p s d A p p R o A c h E s f o R i d E n t i f y i n g p R o - p o o R A d A p tAt i o n most critical given limited resources. Once selected, projected changes in temperature and precipitation, in participants were asked to prioritize them based on order to help inform discussions on future climate what they perceived needed to happen first within the change impacts and adaptation options. Given existing short-term, followed by the medium- and long-term. datasets (from 1950 to 2000) and General Circulation The resultant "pathway", once combined with the prior- Model (GCM) data, wall posters with a number of ities of all five groups, formed one internally consistent different maps were designed to show participants how and robust sequence of adaptation actions to be taken the future might look differently under a scenario of over time at a national, regional or local level. climate change. Examples of maps used include: Climate Change poster · Baseline annual average precipitation between 1950 and 2000 Where appropriate information was available, climate · GCM modeled precipitation in 2050 change wall posters were used to show participants · Precipitation difference between baseline and 2050 fiGure 3.4. examples of impaCT and adapTaTion Cards used in Ghana d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 19 · Baseline annual average temperature between 1950 the country. By taking this approaches local teams and 2000 and consultants provided examples and specific con- · GCM modeled temperature difference between sequences of projections for the countries that baseline and 2050 requires relatively deep knowledge of the country's · Temperature difference between baseline and 2050 situation · Most of the local team members and consultants Sources and availability of climate change data varied were also involved in reviewing and commenting on significantly between countries. Although there has the final workshop reports so the reports provided been a substantial amount of work done in most coun- accurate information tries using the various General Circulation Models · Country teams and consultants were very support- (GCMs) which exist, the challenge was been in down- ive, and they provided useful information about the scaling the data in such a way that is accessible and actual workshop presentations, suggestions for the meaningful for provinces, administrative and agro- group activities that fit the county context and put- ecological zones, and communities. ting the workshop into the context of other on- going initiatives in the country. 3.6 oT her inpuT s To WorKshop s : ea CC se CTor presenTaT ion s ; 3 . 7 d e sC r i pTi o n o f W o r Ks h o p lo C al psd r esulT s pa rTi Ci pa nT s Because the workshops were strongly centered on Workshop participants were invited from diverse profes- participatory approaches, the involvement of country sional and personal backgrounds to both regional and teams in conducting the actual workshops had crucial national level workshops where the ESSA/IISD consor- importance for their success. We can distinguish tium was present. As the PSD approach to planning for between the types of support as follows: climate adaptation is founded in principles of pro-poor adaptation, part of the objectives of a PSD workshop is · Organizing the workshop including helping with to ensure a bottom-up process representative of the booking the venue, inviting participants and assist- needs of those most vulnerable to climate change. As a ing with logistics such food and hotels for the par- result, workshop invitation lists attempted to target both ticipants during the workshop vulnerable groups, and representatives of vulnerable · Providing opening speeches for the workshops; groups, to ensure these objectives were successfully these were given by the leaders of the country teams fulfilled. and by the representatives of the World Bank including Robin Mearns, Anne Kuriakose and Contrary to the above-mentioned objective, workshop Carina Bachofen (The World Bank, Social participants from Phase I were composed of predomi- Development Department, Washington DC), nantly government representatives from environment, Stephen Mink (World Bank, Washington D.C.) and environment-related (agriculture, land, water, etc), and Peter Kristensen (World Bank, Accra, Ghana). departments, with limited direct representation of These contributions were very important for the vulnerable groups. This was noted by the design team, workshop success, because the participants got as well as the in-country teams, as a challenge in the direct information about how the outcomes of the design of Phase I. As a result, a global email was workshop and their contribution will be integrated distributed to all in-country teams in advance of Phase with other components of the EACC study II workshops to ensure a more conscious effort to · Introducing socio-economic and climate change secure the attendance of vulnerable groups (i.e. projections for the countries by country team and community members from climate change `hotspots'), consultants. Through the presentation of projections and/or more representatives of vulnerable groups (i.e. of climate change, participants were made aware of development NGO's) to the table (Appendix 6), the constraints imposed by climate change on particularly at the upcoming national-level workshops addressing existing development challenges within for Phase II. 20 p s d A p p R o A c h E s f o R i d E n t i f y i n g p R o - p o o R A d A p tAt i o n The result was a more diverse mix between government, non-government, research organizations, and commu- Table 3.1 lisT of psd WorKshops Con- nity members who attended Phase II national-level duCTed beTWeen june­oCTober, 2009 workshops. In Ghana and Bangladesh, alongside strong representation from the NGO community, community Total number of members who had attended a local or regional PSD Date(s) Location participants* workshop, were asked to attend the national PSD work- June 11, 2009 Accra (ghana) 31 shop to ensure that their needs and desired responses to June 29, 2009 dhaka (Bangladesh) 32 climate change, were sufficiently addressed and repre- July 15­16, 2009 xai xai (mozambique) 46 sented. The result, in combination with the integration August 26, 2009 maputo (mozambique) 26 of local PSD workshop results at the national level workshops, was a more distinct and bottom-up process september 2­3, 2009 Accra (ghana) 28 which engaged stakeholders from all different back- october 7, 2009 dhaka (Bangladesh) 36 grounds in a more holistic and productive dialogue around adaptation. * excluding World bank, or essa/iisd staff, as well as the in-country facilitation Team members. 21 4. CounTry resulTs and limited health care services, loss of soil fertility as a result of overuse and unsustainable agricultural practices, defor- disCussion estation, rapid and uncoordinated urbanization and poverty. These challenges can also be linked to increasing 4.1 r esulTs from Ghana rates of migration often accompanied by a lack of basic services, unemployment, and limited access to resources 4.1.1 understanding Current Challenges and including food, water and shelter in in-migrating areas vulnerabilities whereas areas of out-migration suffer from lack of labor. Understanding the current situation and challenges that In the context of climate change, vulnerability is a func- people in Ghana are facing is important when identify- tion of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate ing consequences of climate change and developing variability to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, adaptation responses. Key development challenges inden- and its adaptive capacity. Major elements of vulnerability tified during the workshops included rapid depletion of in Ghana are outlined in Table 4.1. natural resources, lack of proper infrastructure, increased incidence of diseases such as sexually transmitted diseases The identified vulnerable groups in Ghana included and malaria and other water-borne diseases coupled with food-crop farmers especially in rain-fed areas; fisher Table 4.1 Key drivers of vulnerabiliTy To ClimaTe ChanGe in Ghana vulnerability driver Example of vulnerability nature and frequency of · increased occurrence of drought and overall change in precipitation patterns exposure natural disasters an · flash floods especially in river basins · coastal areas affected by sea water intrusion, flooding a severe erosion livelihood options and · people sick with malaria, hiv/Aids Sensitivity strategies · farmers and families depending on rain-fed agriculture and subsistence farmers · people with limited access to resources for migrants, widows, disabled people with higher level of poverty and food insecurity · Exploitation of migrants in urban areas · population living in urban slums lack of capital (social, · decreasing well- functioning community networks adaptive capacity physical, financial, · limited access to low-rate loans human, and natural) · limited access to services such as health care and sanitation · lack of irrigation systems and limited water storage · limited access to knowledge and technologies to deal with changing exposure 22 p s d A p p R o A c h E s f o R i d E n t i f y i n g p R o - p o o R A d A p tAt i o n folks, people in flood-prone areas including the coastal thereby continuing to reduce mature fish popula- belt; and migrants mostly living in slums of greater tions in the area. Accra. Finally, participants also identified groups consid- ered vulnerable because of their social situation, regard- Based on the provided information about future climate less of impacts of changing climate, including widows, projections and observed trends, the following key handicapped people, women who do not own land, and impacts were identified: reduced water availability and people living in places with weak social networks and drought, soil degradation, wild fires, floods, coastal conflict-prone zones especially in the Northern regions. erosion and the increased occurrence of diseases (Table 4.2). These impacts have significant implications on key 4.1.2 Current and future impacts of changing sectors including agriculture, forestry and water resources climate and climatic variability that lead to direct impacts on human well-being, food security, drinking water availability and migration. In general, climate impacts in Ghana will differ from the northern Savannah zone to the coastal areas in the Major climate change impacts identified in Ghana south. The Northern Savannah zone is expected to be included reduced water availability, drought and soil mostly affected by increased occurrence of drought. degradation with secondary impacts on overall soil Most of the coastal regions are susceptible to tidal fertility, as well as crop and livestock loss. According to flooding and sea erosion. Despite overall reduction in the participants, these impacts are felt predominantly by water availability, due to less rain and increasing subsistence farmers planting mostly cassava and plan- temperatures, increasing variability in rainfall patterns tain, as well as cash crop farmers growing cocoa and may cause flooding in some river basins. Similar types coffee. For those farmers practicing monoculture of one of events have already been experienced; for example particular cash crop, (which seems to be the current the participants reported the following observed trend), production levels and profits are in jeopardy due impacts and consequences on their livelihoods: to climate variability and a high degree of uncertainty. These impacts were also regarded as the most signifi- · Changing rainfall patterns resulting in lower rain- cant because of the direct linkages to revenues, jobs and fall during the growing season has affected agricul- food security. Participants also emphasized that when ture and farming to the extent that farmers have impacts such as drought occur regularly, farmers are witnessed large reductions in crop yields, reduced discouraged from engaging in further production, and incomes, and overall negative impacts on food secu- many choose to migrate. Similarly, Dogbe and Ahiable rity and livelihoods (2009b) indicated that reduced soil fertility and unreli- · In the transition zone, farmers prefer to plant crops able weather patterns have led to land abandonment by resistant to high temperatures and low rainfall like most farmers in the Transition Zone (for Buoyem, a cassava and cashew. In addition, those in the transi- farming community in Brong Ahafo). tion zone are planting crops which have short gesta- tion, (i.e. tomatoes can be harvested within three In general, migration emerged as a cross-cutting issue months; Dogbe and Ahiable, 2009b) affecting all agro-ecological zones, with significant · The impact of water scarcity is cyclical, which often consequences for the coastal and the transition zones. leads to digging shallow wells, which are still insuf- The issues listed in this context included increasing ficient to overcome major droughts. Droughts often concentration of populations in slums potentially caus- lead to loss of production, disease and migration ing further vulnerabilities, increasing incidences of · For coastal communities, saltwater intrusion and diseases, unemployment, limited availability and access inundation has resulted in the significant loss of to basic services, increased pressure on infrastructure, housing and farms mostly through erosion. and finally, loss of labor in the out-migration areas. As Economic activities in the region are being badly reported by participants, the impacts on the labor affected by these changes. market also include the exploitation of cheap labor in · Reduction in fish harvests which has resulted in the the cities, and often reliant on child labor in areas unsustainable practice of fishing immature fish, affected by out-migration. d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 23 Table 4.2 Key impaCTs and Their ConseQuenCes Key impacts Consequences of these impacts Reduced water availability fluctuation in cereal and root crops (cassava, plantain and cash crops: cocoa and coffee) leading to less and droughts revenues, less food for storage, malnutrition, food insecurity and migration migration--increased population in slums, pressure on infrastructure, social services, loss of labor in the out- migration areas soil degradation loss of land for crop cultivation and reduction of soil fertility and crop yields Wild fires forest degradation, loss of biodiversity, loss of property, ghg emissions; could be worsened by, or caused by, charcoal burners, high biomass, dry construction flooding settlements and farm land and crop production is affected subsequently Reduced access to markets--no way of getting the products to market, loss of revenues, farmers are discouraged subsequently, increased poverty coastal erosion salinization, land degradation, loss of settlements and agricultural land for production; impacts on coastal areas with higher population densities occurrence of diseases spread of diseases such as cholera, malaria, guinea worm, diarrhea leading to loss of man-hours, stress on health facilities and economy as whole; livestock diseases and pests changes in fish availability Reduced fish catch, changes in fish species, undermining of livelihoods of fisherme Extreme temperatures and droughts coupled with the · Increasing use of fertilizers to respond to declining seasonal floods in urban and peri-urban areas indicated growing conditions and soil fertility in the projected climate change scenarios may cause · Planting high-temperature and drought resistant significant impacts in highly populated areas. The crops such as cassava and cashew and plants with impacts are often enhanced by lack of proper infrastruc- short gestation periods like tomatoes ture, which leads to increasing incidence of vector · Planting along the river banks and streams for irri- diseases, especially malaria, which affects the productiv- gation purposes (common only among vegetable ity of people in the suburbs of Accra (also confirmed in farmers) Dogbe and Ahiable, 2009b). In the rest of the country, · Adapt planting dates, either delaying or early-plant- flooding could lead to loss of infrastructure such as ing of crops. This affects revenues since harvesting roads, irrigation systems and human settlements. Floods may not be done at the right time where the could also have negative impacts on crop production demand for the produce is high and livestock causing negative impacts on food security. · Phasing of cultivation, for example, planting only However, workshop participants emphasized that most on half of the land and delay planting the other half of the negative impacts on food security are due to to spread the risk of early or late rains. infrastructure destruction including roads that provide · Practice early morning farming where the commu- access to markets. nity goes to work in the fields very early in the morning to work and come home before the intense 4.1.3 identifying adaptation options mid-day heat to avoid the health impacts of the scorching sun Communities are already experiencing changes in water patterns that required adjustments in their practices. As To address the major impacts on water availability, identified in the report from the local consultants study, erosion and agricultural production, participants empha- the most significant impacts and changes in crop produc- sized infrastructure development, changes in gover- tion and community well-being were attained through nance and training and capacity-building. Participants the following activities (Dogbe and Ahiable, 2009b): suggested that rainwater conservation and building dams would improve water availability for irrigation. · Expanding farms sizes, instead of intensifying agri- They also stressed that smaller scale dams should be culture, however this creates further needs for labor supported, but this should be accompanied by effective and machinery environmental impact assessment. Further, negative 24 p s d A p p R o A c h E s f o R i d E n t i f y i n g p R o - p o o R A d A p tAt i o n consequences of severe climate impacts on food produc- Overall, participants suggested that these adaptation tion could be reduced by building grain silos and small measures would include relatively high cost investments agro-processing facilities for conserving food surplus, such as flood gates, dykes, flood-resistant roads, improv- income generation and for helping in maintaining food ing basic social services, but that several soft invest- security. Participants also suggested changes in planted ments were required in food production, processing and species, by increasing the use of drought-resistant and storage, as well as training in alternative skill sets. early maturing crops as well as changes in practices by Significant improvements in governance including promoting sustainable agriculture and organic farming decentralization, increased participation, sustainable to limit further soil depletion. Some changes in planted resource management and secured land tenure were crops have already been used by farmers. listed as preconditions to increase the adaptive capacity of communities and adaptation actions. Actions are also needed to improve capacities of farm- ers and their families to engage in market activities to 4.1.4 developing adaptation pathways and their sell their products, as well as to improve entrepreneurial relevance to vulnerable people skills that will generate off-farm income. This will lead to increasing levels of self-employment especially in Once adaptation options were identified an adaptation food processing, thereby increasing household income. pathway was developed as a robust sequence of adapta- There is also a need to develop extension services for tion actions to be taken over time at a national, regional information dissemination and skill development on or local level. The proposed pathway should respond to issues such as water harvesting, suitability of planted the current and future impacts of a changing climate, species, post-harvest techniques, loan and microcredit simultaneously paying attention to the overall develop- information etc. Special attention needs to be spent on ment needs and priorities of the country (Table 4.3). skill development initiatives in areas of high in-migra- Specifically, in the short-term period, groups identified tion to help create alternative livelihoods. Improved actions that address current climate variability and the capacities and livelihood opportunities especially in associated negative impacts such as reduced water avail- limiting `slash and burn agriculture,' could be also effec- ability, losses and fluctuation in crop production, and tive in wildfire management. limited public health and social support services. This included water harvesting, sustainable agricultural prac- To prevent flooding, infrastructure development was tices and post-harvest practices. As outlined in the identified as a priority, including building flood-proof previous section, these measures should be supported by roads, increasing capacity of drainage systems, using microcredit schemes to help farmers and SMEs obtain flood-resistant materials in construction, building resources for production, storage and preservation of flood gates and dykes to control water levels and to products (facilities, methods and processing) and by protect from sea and fresh water. The protection from agricultural extension services to appropriately inform sea level rise should also be linked with natural farmers about sustainable practices. options such as protecting and planting mangroves, instead of only focusing on hard, physical interven- To make the suggested adaptation measures for water tions such as dykes. harvesting, agricultural practices and post-harvest management most accessible to vulnerable people, the To further address flooding and other severe weather participants specified the following considerations: events, participants suggested improvements to early warning systems. This included investing in technology · promoting roof-top, run-off rain-water storage for to equip meteorological service agencies, supporting agriculture health and agricultural extension services to help trans- · creating shared water storage facilities within the late projections into forecasts of disease outbreaks and community, especially in dry areas recommended cropping patterns, and finally, identifying · targeting small-scale farmers and fishers (in the proper communication channels that will reach remote Transition and Coastal zones) for organic farming areas using community radios and local languages. and backyard gardening programs d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 25 Table 4.3 Key elemenTs of The adapTaTion paThWay for Ghana Types of Short-term Medium-term Long-term actions 2010­2015 2015­2030 2030­2050 · Rain-water harvesting · Rainwater harvesting (run-off capture) · sea-defense along the coastline infrastructure and changes in practice · post harvest management and building dams · flood proof roads and railways Mostly · Aquaculture · Building dams for irrigation (small · developing crops and livestock that are pest scale community management dams) and drought resistant, early yielding and · improve drainage culturally acceptable · Resettlement of displaced people · Wildfire control · governance and regulation · promote integrated Water Resource Mostly services, · development of sustainable enforcement management development governance, training and agricultural practices · sustainable water management · sustainable land-use management capacity · culturally sensitive · climate forecast and early warning · social policies--safety nets for communities education systems and immigrants, managing social tensions · health services and · services for resettled displaced and conflicts supporting social nets people · vocational training and entrepreneurial skill · secure land-tenure training · supporting post-harvest activities including cottage · addressing inappropriate water management espe- processing and sun-drying cially in vulnerable areas and areas with potential · creating food banks high migration; and · adopting improved indigenous and dry land farm- · using both natural and built structures in coastal ing practices protection. · improving extension services for small-scale and subsistence farmers The identified changes should be followed by improve- ment in governance of water resources by moving The participants also identified improvements in basic towards sustainable and integrated management of health services and supporting social safety nets. These water resources, which was identified in all workshops. services should be targeted especially toward children This includes overall improvements in regulation and pregnant women, and should include improved enforcement, increasing capacity of personnel, and access to sanitation and personal hygiene education. incentive/payment options for environmental services. Preconditions for changes in agricultural practices This would require decentralization of the government require securing land tenure, and promoting democratic authority, strengthening of civil society, engaging tradi- control of land including gender balance in access to tional authorities in planning and building on existing power and resources. platforms for community engagement. Over medium-term horizons, the focus was both on Recommended long-term priorities (to 2050) included engaging in investments in infrastructure as well as in infrastructure development that could address future capacity and training activities mostly focused on water climate impacts including roads and railways, sea- resources. According to the participants, this should defense along the coastline and cleaning riverbeds and include rainwater harvesting and building infrastructure water ways. As suggested by participants investments in such as dams for irrigation, flood protection and roads should also consider: improving drainage systems. As suggested, these measures should occur at the smaller and medium-scale · timing of construction especially that the roads are and at the community level, for example by: constructed before rainy season; · ensuring routine maintenance; and · protecting streams and planting along the rivers; · reviewing overall road design criteria including · supporting community-based water management; materials and drainage, road sizes, protection of · small ­ scale community dams on local streams; road shoulders. 26 p s d A p p R o A c h E s f o R i d E n t i f y i n g p R o - p o o R A d A p tAt i o n Strong emphasis on education and long-term changes vulnerable groups face include poor road networks, in natural resource governance, especially in water limited access to markets, limited knowledge and other resource management, were suggested. Over the long- capacities for processing of agricultural products, high term, more investment in R&D of culturally acceptable unemployment rates, deforestation, illegal fishing, and climate and pest resilient crop and livestock varieties, as desertification. In addition, a lack of institutional well as early-maturing varieties is required. This would capacity in the area of conservation and resource need to be linked to changes in the educational system, management was also identified. Major vulnerable creating support programs for higher education, inte- groups were identified by the participants included: grating climate change into the formal curriculum and low literacy/uneducated, orphan, or child-headed educating affected communities on the impacts of households, rain-fed agriculturalists, polygamist climate change. families, people with disabilities, households living along river basins and families with a high number of The issues of developing early warning systems and dependents. forecasts to guide agricultural production have growing importance over time. In some areas such the Transition 4.2.2 Current and future impacts of Changing and the Northern Savannah zones, there is a strong Climate and Climatic variability emphasis on early warning systems, even in the short- term horizons, to inform agricultural producers about Some of the most significant impacts identified across potential changes and give warning and advice before vulnerable livelihood groups in Mozambique included major disasters such as floods and droughts. the impacts on agriculture (soil fertility, drought and Countrywide effectiveness would require additional desertification), forestry (increased occurrence of wild- support to meteorological offices, improved rural exten- fires), and floods and related damage (Table 4.4). sion units and exploring diverse dissemination channels such as community radio, cell phone networking, or In terms of impacts on soil fertility and desertifica- public meetings held by extension agencies and/or tion, participants identified potential consequences as village officials to reach the target audience. loss of, or reduced agricultural and livestock production, fluctuation in production and reduced water availability Over all the time horizons from short to long-term These impacts were thought to have the most signifi- participants expected that the migration and displace- cant impacts on subsistence farmers and farmers in the ment of people would require significant attention and rain-fed areas and were regarded as the most significant investments. There needs to be growing effort to because of the direct linkages to nutrition and poverty support and improve social safety nets including health levels. These impacts were given the highest priority. services that would specifically service migrants and They further outlined these consequences by emphasiz- migrant areas. ing that they could lead to food insecurity, localized hunger and low diversification of diet with negative 4.2 r esulTs from mozambi Que impacts on children, cereal scarcity and overall food shortages. They also emphasized that these negative 4.2.1 understanding Current Challenges and trends could be magnified by indirect impacts such as vulnerabilities price fluctuation and often significant increase in food prices especially in the affected areas. Furthermore, in Understanding both the historic and current issues and the areas of recurring droughts, it was determined that challenges that people are facing is important for iden- the negative impacts could undermine coping capacities tifying vulnerable groups. In terms of social issues, the of households by limiting their availability to either identified challenges included poor access to water and plant or harvest enough food to provide a surplus for social services, high rates of absolute poverty, irregular storage. Families that do not have surplus food for three school attendance, especially for women, and high rates months, or the equivalent money, are at significantly of HIV/AIDS and the consequential reductions in the reduced capacity to recover from and adapt to adverse labor force. The overall development challenges that climate-related incidents. d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 27 Table 4.4 Key impaCTs and assoCiaTed ConseQuenCes of ClimaTe ChanGe in mozambiQue Key Impact Consequences of these impacts Water availability low crop and livestock productivity; hunger and malnutrition; population migration; salinization; and increase in disease migration increased pressures on the natural resource base (forestry & fisheries); increased unemployment and social conflict; increase in number of abandoned settlements; and increase in disease desertification and soil degradation increased pressure on fisheries (alternative livelihood); loss of vegetation; and food insecurity (including loss of soil fertility) flood soil erosion; flood damage (to infrastructure, settlements, and assets); poverty; disease; malnutrition; and improved nutrient cycle for fisheries Wildfire loss of vegetation; soil degradation; low crop yield; reduced availability of firewood; food insecurity; hunger; malnutrition; and low quality of shelter coastal erosion and salt water increased fish harvesting, overexploitation and extinction of some species; and increased family intrusion expenses and insecurity from fishing - reduced income from fisheries and food insecurity Further consequences of climate change in Mozambique markets. Finally, participants mentioned that controlled include reduced water availability, desertification and floods in areas where the communities are prepared for unsustainable use of forests- often leading to a reduction these events could also help improve nutrient cycling and of pasture land, loss of pastures, forest and wildfires and crop production, creating benefits for the community. deforestation. These impacts have negative consequences for many vulnerable groups especially charcoal, wood, For areas around the coast, coastal flooding and salt and wild food collectors, whose livelihoods directly water intrusion would create serious consequences for depend on the forest resources. Participants recognized the local livelihoods especially in the context of the fish- that most of these impacts are also worsened by current eries, but also for agricultural production. According to challenges of forest management including illegal timber the participants, this could lead to pressure on resources harvesting, weak law enforcement and weak enforcement by overharvesting current resources to maintain the level of the licenses for timber. Many of the activities, of catches, revenues and food security. Most of the fish- together with climatic impacts, contribute to the ermen have limited skills and limited access to other increased occurrence of wildfires damaging both human sources of income to potentially cover the reduced reve- settlements and ecosystems. nues from fishing; this will need to be considered when adaptation options are identified. Flooding was identified as one of the most significant impacts of a changing climate, inasmuch as it has many Many of the above-mentioned impacts could also direct consequences on all segments of the population, impact urban and peri-urban population. Although but especially vulnerable groups. The impacts identified not specifically discussed in the workshops, some groups included loss of infrastructure such as roads, irrigation emphasized that negative impacts on agriculture, systems and human settlements. Participants indicated forestry and infrastructure could also lead to increases that this could also result in resettlement which often in unemployment. As people in these areas do not have leads to a decline in well-being including living in camps, their own production systems and/or other means of limited access to basic services, and limited long-term food security, the end result may be mass migration into employment. Floods could also result in reduced crop urban areas. Similarly, impacts on agricultural produc- production and livestock causing negative impacts on tion, livestock and settlements can also lead to migra- food security as has been outlined above. However, tion. In most of the groups, the issue of migration was participants emphasized that most of the negative mentioned, but it was prioritized as an issue of medium impacts on food security will likely be due to infrastruc- or low significance that should be monitored as it may ture damage, including roads that could provide access to lead to further vulnerability not directly related to 28 p s d A p p R o A c h E s f o R i d E n t i f y i n g p R o - p o o R A d A p tAt i o n climate change impacts, such as diseases, unemployment entrepreneurship and levels of self-employment. It was and limited access to basic services. noted that this is especially important in the food processing sector. This will help to diversify household 4.2.3 identifying adaptation options livelihood options and potentially increase household incomes. To promote some of these potential business Communities are already experiencing changes in activities, accessibility of micro-credit and lower interest weather patterns that require adjustments in their prac- loans would need to be made available. Finally, improve- tices. As identified in both workshop phases, the most ment in social services and health care should be significant changes in practices to address impacts were considered to address emergencies related to the changes in crop production. Some examples of adapta- impacts of climate change. tion options currently applied by communities include: To address impacts related to the forestry sector, · small-scale rainwater harvesting done by households participants emphasized that overall changes in forest and communities; management practices are needed. Specific actions · early warning systems; should focus on research on forestry and techniques for · construction of small silos for storage at community planting; developing forest extension services; reforest- level; ing of deforested areas (including mandatory reforesta- · management and control of wild fires through com- tion by timber companies); mapping of forest areas and munity sensitization; areas at risk, especially to wild fires; promotion of · risk management committees that are established to sustainable use of forests; overall conservation of the help control forest fires; environment; enrichment planting, zoning and related · using malaria nests for fishing; and management planning practices; and community refor- · changes in cropping strategies including both prac- estation initiatives. tices, size of the cultivated land and planted crops. Special attention should be given to address the increas- To address the major impacts on agricultural produc- ing risk of wild fires when developing adaptation tion, participants emphasized a need to move towards responses in forestry. This should include enforcement more sustainable agricultural practices that promote soil of the existing forestry laws and regulations; establish- conservation and the reduced application of artificial ment of steering committees for fire management; fertilizers. Participants also suggested crop diversifica- mapping vulnerable areas; adopting measures to rehabil- tion and the promotion of climate-resilient species. To itate ecosystems; fire control measures such as reduction improve water availability, participants suggested rain- of burnt areas; forest protection; and protection water conservation and also building dams to ensure measures for farming areas and housing. Participants improved water availability for irrigation. also emphasized the importance of education and awareness-raising about environmental issues related to Building grain silos for conservation of food surplus was wild fire protection, especially at the community level. identified by participants as a key measure for helping Communities also should be introduced to participatory to improve food security. Participants recognized that forest and resource management through the promotion this would also require developing local markets and of community management projects. increasing access to markets to create opportunities for selling some of the surplus. They suggested specific To address flooding and other severe weather-events, measures including reactivating a network of rural participants suggested improvements in early warning commerce support for creating market programs, systems. This should include increased focus of risk simplified licensing procedures for small and medium management committees (with appropriate geographic businesses, and price monitoring to avoid inflated food coverage), sensitization and awareness of communities prices during times of shortages. Building the skills of including farmers and finding relevant ways of commu- farmers in marketing and increased vocational training nicating meteorological information within the country opportunities was also identified to help improve and across regions. To address d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 29 actual impacts, suggestions included promoting cyclone address the consequences, participants suggested the resistant buildings to minimize or avoid destruction of improvement of storage facilities and processing, (in infrastructure (houses), building flood gates to reduce order to give a greater return for a lesser catch) and to flood damage, improved drainage to ensure improve- introduce alternative skills and entrepreneurial training ment of irrigation system and flood resistant roads to to enable fishers to acquire either improved capabilities ensure access to markets and enhance food security. in aquaculture or other sources of income, so that they are less dependent on fisheries. Overall, participants agreed that the measures presented necessitate both relatively high costs in investments 4.2.4 developing adaptation pathways and their such as flood gates, irrigation systems, road, improving relevance to vulnerable people basic social services, as well as significant work with communities to increase their capacities in food produc- Following the identification of key adaptation interven- tion, processing and marketing along with increasing tions, participants prioritized the adaptation options to engagement in community resource management, risk identify interventions over the short-, medium-, and mapping and use of early warning systems. All these long-term (Table 4.5). would require significant improvements in governance including decentralization, increased stakeholder For the short-term priorities, the participants identi- consultation, a strategy for combating corruption and fied actions that address the current climate variability overall democratization of decision-making. It would and negative impacts such as wildfire and reduced crop also require working with communities to increase their production. This included promoting improved agricul- interest, engagement and participation in local and tural practices, drought-resistant crops and other regional planning and community activities for adapta- improved crop varieties. Similar smaller-scale activities tion to climate change. that could provide benefits for vulnerable people and also improve resource conservation were suggested for Participants also indentified that an immediate conse- other sectors, including more effective fishing nets, revi- quence of climate change on fish availability may be talizing the rural and trade network, provision of low overfishing, where fishers attempt to maintain previous interests-loans, and simplification of licensing proce- levels of fish catches despite reduced availability. To dures for small and medium enterprises. To address the Table 4.5 proposed adapTaTion paThWays (per seCTor) for mozambiQue Short-term Medium-term Long-term 2009­2015 2015­2030 2030­2050 · construction of dykes for water · construction of flood gates and · Reforestation, forest management and Mostly infrastructure retention (small scale) dams in areas vulnerable to (environmental) education particularly in and changes in · conservation agriculture including floods forest concession areas (commercial planting crops resistant to drought · Building silos; improved family/ forestry) practice community storage facilities · Reforestation so the areas destroyed by forest harvesting and wildfires are reduced · construction of infrastructure with can withstand climate disasters especially related to trade in agriculture · simplification of licensing procedures · Water harvesting techniques (i.e. · Education for skills development to governance, training for small and medium enterprises water storage tanks for influence in behavior and attitude to Mostly services, development and capacity · improved fishing nets & improved consumption and irrigation) enforce seasonal fishing restrictions; use fish management to promote · Alternative income generating improved fishing nets sustainable use of resources activities Building infrastructure · Education so that people can learn to · Rehabilitation of rural commerce and for processing and conservation live with drought trade networks; of fish (increase yield and · Wildfire management and changes in increase quality of product) standards · post-harvest processing 30 p s d A p p R o A c h E s f o R i d E n t i f y i n g p R o - p o o R A d A p tAt i o n wildfire risks and other severe climate impacts, the facilities and primary education, and governance and capacity of risk management committees must increase accountability issues. Key characteristics of vulnerability and changes in rules and norms for trade in wood prod- in the country are presented in Table 4.6. ucts must occur to reduce the pressure on natural forests. 4.3.2 Current and future impacts of changing climate and climatic variability For medium-term priorities, participants identified investments in infrastructure coupled with capacity Historically, Bangladesh has experienced a significant building and training activities for people and degree of extreme climatic events. According to the communities. Some examples of this coupling participants, the main climatic hazards which are included building infrastructure for processing and currently being experienced in Bangladesh, and which conservation of fish, silos and post-harvest processing, can be expected to be exacerbated under future scenar- water harvesting and construction of flood gates and ios of climate change, include cyclones, floods, and dams in areas vulnerable to floods. It was considered drought, with subsequent impacts of peoples' liveli- important that the infrastructure-related activities be hoods. Cyclones are characteristic of the coastal region, directly linked to capacity development and training drought events are more common in the northwest, and activities. For example, the post-harvesting and flooding and related impacts has resulted in significant processing facilities need to be linked to training in losses and damages within the northeast, coastal, and creating small businesses and other income generating urban centers. activities. These linkages may be established by devel- oping short-term activities necessary to affect change Major impacts of floods and droughts identified and opportunities for small business by providing included crop losses due to inundation and loss of agri- loans, networks and vocational training. It was noted cultural lands, increase in pest infestation and occur- that water harvesting is already a government priority, rence of vector-borne diseases, reduced potable water but this needs to happen at both large and smaller availability, and increasing pressures on already fragile scales, and should become an increased focus in natural resources (i.e. sand mining, fishing, groundwater, government planning. wetlands, etc). All groups highlighted the effects of mass migration and the increasing number of climate Long-term priorities included infrastructure develop- refugees as a major concern for adaptation planning. ment such as roads, dykes and dams. Participants also Impacts of cyclones in the coastal region include salin- focused on education and capacity development to ity intrusion, drainage congestion and water logging, as enable people to respond effectively to impacts of well as erosion. Second and third order impacts which climate change. Another priority included continuing followed included migration, disease outbreak, loss of improvement of natural resource governance to promote biodiversity and increased poverty. sustainable resource management, especially in the forestry and fisheries sectors. Similarly, flooding hazards during the monsoon season can often lead to increased sediment loads and 4.3 r esulTs from b an Gladesh erosion which in turn can damage crop, livestock, and household assets, resulting in increased food insecurity 4.3.1 understanding Current Challenges and and reduced household capital. For drought events in vulnerabilities the northwest of the country, participants noted first order impacts including reduced agricultural produc- Bangladesh faces a number of serious development tion and groundwater availability, with second and challenges alongside its vulnerability to disaster and third order impacts of food insecurity, unemployment natural hazards. These include high population growth, and health implications. Negative impacts on agricul- lack of employment opportunities, climatic hazards, lack tural production could furthermore promote unsustain- of sustainable resource management, gender inequity able land-use practices such as turning wetland to and food insecurity, inadequate access to health care agricultural lands, extending agricultural areas to d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 31 natural areas and could potentially increase conflict traditionally coincides with the rainy season. The over common property. declining number of village weddings has resulted in the loss of social capital and altered dependence on While some impacts would serve to exacerbate the familial safety nets. identified vulnerabilities (i.e. higher rates of landless- ness under future scenarios of climate change), these Other consequences of climate change on the social impacts could cause increased disease outbreaks in fabric of Bangladesh include increased corruption conjunction with surface water pollution and poor amongst local authorities. Participants noted that the health facilities. distribution of post-disaster relief supplies is used as an opportunity for local elites to secure votes from In identifying some of the social impacts of climate community members. In addition, one of the well change in Bangladesh, participants noted that climate documented risks of climate change is the loss of change and extreme climatic events are giving rise to a indigenous knowledge. In the northeast of number of changes in local custom and culture. For Bangladesh, the harvesting of `chailla' grass is a 300 example, participants from the coastal areas of year-old technique used to protect houses and crops Bangladesh noted a changing dress code for women from `afal', (cyclones and wave action). Participants wearing the kameeze in place of the sari in order to noted that since the Tanguar Haor in Sunamganj minimize the amount of loose material. Also in the district was designated an Ecologically Critical Area coastal area, participants noted increasing criminal by the Government of Bangladesh in 1999, local activities post-disaster as vulnerable groups were forced communities have been prohibited from collecting the to sell off their remaining assets to those more wealthy `chailla' grass, which in turn has resulted in greater in turn for income. In other villages, people are no destruction and loss of household assets in the longer getting married because the wedding season surrounding communities. Table 4.6 Key drivers of vulnerabiliTy To ClimaTe ChanGe in banGladesh Vulnerability driver Example of vulnerability nature and frequency of natural disasters sea-level surge (tidal and storm), salinity intrusion flooding (including flash floods) exposure drainage congestion and water logging Erosion (coastal and river) siltation and sedimentation surface water pollution Earthquake prone areas drought-prone livelihood options and strategies livelihood hazard mobility hazard, especially for women Sensitivity high rates of unemployment (particularly of youth) school drop-out and reduction in school enrolment levels lack of capital (social, physical, financial, human, and migration of local people (changing social networks) natural) Reduced social security after disasters (i.e. food, health, sanitation) adaptive capacity Unplanned relief activities reducing natural coping patterns social insecurity lack of timely administrative support decreasing recreational places (i.e. playgrounds) poor health facilities high rates of homeless/landless high incidence of poverty lack of power of female upazilla members land conflicts 32 p s d A p p R o A c h E s f o R i d E n t i f y i n g p R o - p o o R A d A p tAt i o n 4.3.3 identifying adaptation options recommended better monitoring and enforcement of building codes and improved planning practices Key adaptation options for Bangladesh were identified which prohibit development in protected areas, and as follows: ensure environmental impact assessments (EIAs) are properly carried out. · Disaster mitigation and preparedness · Economic diversification and training in alternative With much of the rural populations' livelihoods derived livelihoods from the agriculture sector, and a projected decline in · Improved agriculture and natural resource national agricultural output, economic diversification management and alternative livelihood options will provide a criti- · Improved access to information and services cal means by which communities can adapt to a chang- ing climate. Livelihood diversification within a system Disaster mitigation and preparedness are a key focus reduces sensitivity of people within the system by for overall development in Bangladesh. In light of reducing stress on the natural environment that results projected climate change and increasing uncertainty in from less diverse livelihood activities. In the char areas predicting extreme climate events, participants indicated of Sylhet, participants indicated a shift from agricultural the need for ongoing intensified efforts in this area, laboring to fisheries laboring, indicative perhaps of the including more cyclone shelters in the coastal areas. higher sensitivity associated with an agricultural system Participants proposed various upgrades to the current in comparison to a fisheries system. Participants model of constructing and/or renovating cyclone shel- targeted the need for more vocational institutions to ters which included the use of solar energy, raised live- provide training in alternative livelihood strategies. In stock carrying facilities, and using a gender-sensitive addition, participants commented that a priority focus design which would separate the sanitation facilities of on improving rural economic opportunities would help the men and the women. Participants also noted that to address the current, unsustainable rate of rural-urban currently, cyclone shelters are located at too great a migration. distance from one another, resulting in human fatalities in transit to the nearest cyclone shelter. Fatalities are To address the major impacts of cyclones, drought and mostly women and children injured in the high winds flood on food security in Bangladesh, participants and loose debris, or unable to reach a cyclone shelter in emphasized the need for improved agriculture and time before it fills to capacity. As a result, participants natural resource management. One of the greatest suggested smaller, more frequent cyclone shelters, with challenges to agriculture in Bangladesh is the lack of sufficient capacity, basic resources (i.e. clean water) and disaster-resilient crop varieties. This includes the need services (i.e. for pregnant women, elderly) available to for salinity-tolerant varieties in the coastal areas, and house all citizens in the local area. Participants also short-duration varieties (or early maturing) in the advocated for stronger embankments, higher polder northeast. In order to ensure year-round food security heights, and more accurate warning systems to mini- throughout the country, participants noted the need for mize false alarms and give communities adequate notice improved irrigation technologies, as well as the provi- of a pending weather event.5 sion of government subsidies for agricultural inputs including seed and fertilizer. In addition to the physical, technological, and infra- structural advances suggested in the area of disaster 5 Participants of the northeast group noted that many communities did mitigation and preparedness, participants also noted a not respond to the early warning which had been provided in advance number of regulatory and cultural interventions which of Cyclone Sidr in November 2007. They noted that a false alarm had require equal consideration in adaptation planning. For been issued only one month prior and as a result, many households chose to ignore the subsequent warning, despite its urgency. Also, example, current building law allows construction on participants from the coastal group noted that in 1991, two false lowland, flood-prone areas. Building codes are often not signals in the Chittagong district of southeastern Bangladesh had preceded in the months before Cyclone Gorky. As a result, a number enforced and the result is unsafe living conditions for of fishermen continued to go out the day of the cyclone, which killed millions in Bangladeshis. As a result, participants approximately 138,000 people. d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 33 In addition to investments in disaster planning, livestock and gender-sensitive facilities. Participants also economic diversification and agriculture, participants noted the need for afforestation activities to reduce the also commented on the strong need for improved ongoing effects of erosion and increased sedimentation access to information and services. In particular, in riverbeds. Improved agriculture and natural resource participants expressed their support for changing the management was the focus in the northwest of the primary school calendar to match that of the high country, with priority interventions including improved school calendar (where exams take place outside the crop varieties and fish sanctuaries. monsoons and vacation corresponds with the monsoons) to improve overall school attendance. In the urban areas of Bangladesh, special consideration Participants also noted the need for boats to transport was drawn to the provision of basic services in the face students to and from school (particularly women who of climate change, as participants agreed that govern- are more at risk when crossing flooded areas), as well as ment subsidies for safe housing, food, health and the need for more mobile health care facilities to main- education, were required, in addition to improved tain the health of the local communities. In urban areas, access and availability of clean drinking water through participants recommended the need for surface water the purification of surface water resources. treatment plants to improve freshwater availability and overall health of the population. In the medium term, priority disaster management interventions included improved river flow manage- 4.3.4 developing adaptation pathways and their ment and the construction of protective walls to protect relevance to vulnerable people both residential and other land. Improved information and services are also essential in the medium-term, Following the identification of key adaptation interven- particularly in the form of improved early warning tions, participants prioritized interventions over the systems, education and awareness, and the monitoring short-, medium-, and long-term (Table 4.7). and enforcement of building codes and construction laws in urban areas. Priorities in the agriculture sector In the short-term, groups prioritized a number of included improved irrigation systems and access to adaptation options at the national scale which spanned other, more modern, agricultural technologies. each of the four key areas for adaptation investment. In the area of disaster mitigation and preparedness, partici- The longer-term priorities in general were those that pants prioritized the construction of new, and rehabili- participants identified as significant adaptation efforts, tation of existing, flood embankments, increased but those that could be postponed until more urgent polder heights, and the construction of improved interventions (short and medium-term) were underway. cyclone shelters with solar panels, raised platforms for Long-term interventions included river and canal Table 4.7 naTional adapTaTion paThWays for banGladesh Short-term Medium-term Long-term · construction and rehabilitation of flood embankments · improved river flow management · dredging infrastructure and changes · increase of polder heights · construction of protective walls (rivers and in practice · more cyclone shelters (gender-friendly, livestock, solar · improved irrigation systems canals) Mostly panels) · Access to other, more modern, · Afforestation agricultural technologies · purification of surface water (improved access and availability of clean drinking water) · short duration crop varieties · improved early warning systems · improved development governance, training and · conserve fish sanctuaries · improved early warning systems policies in services, capacity · subsidized social schemes (food, education, health) · Education and awareness haor region Mostly · government-subsidized housing facilities · monitoring and enforcement of building codes and construction laws 34 p s d A p p R o A c h E s f o R i d E n t i f y i n g p R o - p o o R A d A p tAt i o n dredging as well as special attention to the policy envi- Participants from the studied countries were concerned ronment of the Haor regions of the northeast. about limited adaptive capacities available for people to deal with future exposures. In general, the capacities are In summary, it is interesting to note that although low and major challenges include limited access to economic diversification and training in alternative live- resources that could help in responding to threats at the lihood options was considered at length throughout community levels such as functioning community group discussions, it was not prioritized as an adapta- networks, limited access to low-rate loans and micro- tion investment over the short, medium, or long-term. credit, limited access to training and technologies to reduce dependence on natural resources and land tenure 4.4 s imilari Ties and d ifferenC e s issues. It is also important to note the reduced capacity b eTW een psd WorK shop in communities that are repeatedly faced with disasters pro Cesses and resulT s and how post-disaster relief efforts contribute to rebuilding capacity and increasing sensitivities including Most of the development challenges are similar across food insecurity, health and sanitation services. the studied countries including low quality of basic services contributing to increased incidence of diseases Most of the countries have already encountered major and poverty, fast pace of natural resources depletion impacts of weather-related disasters including cyclones especially forestry and water, increasing migration and and floods in Mozambique, drought, cyclical water scar- uncoordinated urbanization. These challenges signifi- city and floods in river basins in Ghana and sea-level cantly contribute to increasing sensitivities and lowering rise (tidal and storms), flash floods, heavy rainfall and capacities available to respond to challenges including salinity intrusion in Bangladesh. When addressing climate and weather-related events. In terms of current consequences of potential impacts of projected climate challenges, capacities and sensitivities to exposures change and adaptation actions, participants built on their including climate change and variability there are many knowledge and experiences with past extreme-weather similarities between the three countries. events and variability and on their aspirations for future development in their countries. In all three countries In terms of exposure, all countries are experiencing some adaptation measures are already being imple- increased negative impacts associated with weather- mented, generally as autonomous actions at the house- related events such as floods, droughts, cyclones. hold or community levels. These actions mostly include Impacts of these events are often worsened by unsus- changes in agricultural practices (i.e. timing, planted tainable human actions and practices such as deforesta- species and water harvesting) in all studied countries. tion, increased erosion, unsustainable water resource management and destroying natural coastal protection In terms of differences, in Mozambique the current leading to sea water intrusion and coastal erosion. adaptation actions include creating fire risk manage- ment committees, in Bangladesh varying levels of disas- Sensitivity in the studied countries generally refers to ter preparedness has been implemented for many years, overall level of social development including health, and in Ghana farmers are using more drought-tolerant high levels of poverty, food insecurity and limited avail- crops. Participants identified a number of currently used ability of basic services. In Ghana and Mozambique, the unsustainable or ineffective adaptation practices includ- major existing challenges are malaria and HIV/AIDS; ing fishing younger (immature) fish to maintain the while diarrhea is common in all countries. Households catch size in Mozambique; expanding farmed area to that are practicing rain-fed agriculture, households with maintain yields in Ghana; and, in Bangladesh, the large limited food storage and high incidence of poverty are distances between cyclone shelters that result in numer- also vulnerable to weather-related exposures. Sensitive ous human fatalities. groups across the countries include widows with chil- dren, child-headed households and handicapped people. Finally, immediate adaptation priorities were focused on Gender disparities also contribute to sensitivity by addressing impacts of changing climate on food security limiting access of women to resources including land. including water harvesting, improvement in farming d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 35 practices and post harvest management in all countries. These actions include skill development, training and Table 4.8 overvieW of adapTaTion community-based activities; while infrastructure devel- aCTions in aGriCulTure and WaTer opment including dykes, roads and flood gates are resourCe manaGemenT in The sTudied mostly focused over medium and long-term horizons in CounTries Mozambique and Ghana. In Bangladesh, the major short-term focus includes disaster preparedness includ- Sectoral adaptation options listed Key Sectors in all studied countries ing flood embankments, cyclone shelters and housing agriculture · Erosion control by encouraging contour farming facilities. In all the studied countries, most of the impor- and water and water storing tant warming systems were medium-term priorities. A resources · Building grain silos · crop diversification long-term priority for all the studied countries was a · improved post harvest technologies · prompting sustainable agriculture, organic need to improve governance in order to move toward farming and appropriate technology to reduce more sustainable resource management, including forest degradation · drought-resistant and early mature crops and water resources, was identified. In line with their · Alternative skill training to promote self- employment and economic diversification development priorities, all countries recognize the · Building dams and irrigation systems importance of improving social services (i.e., health, Wild fires · Wildfire control--creating fire belts food, education) over different time horizons (i.e., short- · forest management: reduction of desertification, sustainable use of forests, term in Bangladesh and long-term in Ghana due their conservation of environment and enrichment high costs as indicated by workshop participants). planting, zoning/management planning, community based reforestation · promoting sustainability of forest harvesting activities (firewood harvesting)--to improve 4.5 Key s eCToral Themes emer G i nG availability and diversity of forest species · improved institutional control of wildfires · improved physical fire control measures In all three countries, the focus of identified adaptation Flooding · flood-proof roads--increase capacity of responses are on agriculture and water resource manage- drainage systems to absorb increased volumes of water, flood-resistant materials used in road ment, fisheries, forestry (especially wildfire management), construction flooding, emergency preparedness and investments into · flood gates--control water levels · Building dykes embankments and sea defense basic services such as education, health care and sanita- walls tion. Major common themes across these sectors in all · improved drainage studied countries are presented in Table 4.8. emergency · Early warning systems--equipping preparedness meteorological service with modern technology · Building shelters and post-disaster relief preparedness Adaptation options identified in these themes are rele- Fisheries · improved fishing nets vant for all countries and the major differences are in · storage facilities and basic processing the scale and emphasis on how the options should be · Education and skill training in aquaculture and processing implemented, on what scale and what types of capacity- · Alternative skill to reduce dependence on building options are needed to support these actions. fisheries For example, practices such as erosion control by Basic · improved education, more community hospitals services and mobile health-care facilities, surface water encouraging contour farming and water storing, build- treatment · improved sanitation, proper drainage system, ing grain silos, crop diversification, improved post adequate health supplies, emergency-response harvest technologies and promoting sustainable agricul- teams ture are relevant for all countries; however in Ghana and Mozambique further emphasis is on training and skill-development in post-harvest management, while in Mozambique, these options are part of the measures to Bangladesh the focus is on crop-diversification and improve agricultural production, diseases monitoring, planting resilient crops (disaster and salinity). forest and water management, where emergency preparedness is a part of extension services. Similarly, in all countries emergency preparedness is among the priority actions, but only in Bangladesh is it All countries identified improving basic services to identified as a stand-alone initiative. In Ghana and increase quality of the health-care, education, potable 36 p s d A p p R o A c h E s f o R i d E n t i f y i n g p R o - p o o R A d A p tAt i o n water and sanitation as part of the necessary adaptation opportunities.6 In all three countries the majority of the actions. Participants from Bangladesh also stressed the rural populations' livelihoods are derived from the agri- need to maintain basic services in post-disasters relief culture sector. Therefore increased opportunities for situation. These actions should also be designed with a economic diversification and alternative livelihood gender perspective. options will provide a critical means by which communi- ties can adapt to a changing climate. As a result, partici- 4.6 Cross-seCToral e mphases pants targeted the need for more vocational institutions to provide training in alternative livelihood strategies. Most of the adaptation actions identified by the partici- pants from all the studied countries are cutting across 4 . 7 i d e nTi f iC aTi o n o f To p iCs sectors. For example, improvement in fishing technolo- a d d r e s s e d b r i e f ly o r n oT gies needs to be linked with training and skill-develop- ar i s i nG i n W o rK s h o p s ment measures to help in catch processing, implemented principles of sustainable fisheries manage- Not all the issues raised during the discussions about ment and exploring opportunities for alternative income vulnerability, impacts of climate change and adaptation generation for fishers. Examples of relationships could options were listed as national or regional adaptation easily be identified between key sectors including water priorities in the adaptation pathways, perhaps due to resources management, agriculture and emergency the range of affiliations and priorities of workshop preparedness and basic services in the studied countries. participants. Many issues were discussed briefly during Linkages between climate change response and address- small group sessions, but they did not make it to the ing key development challenges such as food security, group plenary sessions. One issue that was probably not land-use management and basic services are interwoven sufficiently explored by the groups was the challenges of in all three countries. These measures should also be protecting biodiversity and ecosystems in the countries linked to disaster preparedness programs and account in the context of changing climate change and develop- for future climatic and social challenges. ment pressures. Many of the participants identified the role of ecosystems services and biodiversity in providing Other major cross-cutting social challenges including livelihoods in agriculture, fisheries and also for charcoal migrations from rural to urban areas, are not yet seri- burners, firewood and wild food collectors. They also ous, but participants expect them to have significant suggested that people whose livelihoods almost exclu- impacts in the future. Migration was identified as a sively depend on ecosystems services are very vulnerable cross-cutting issue across regions, sectors and countries. to impacts of changing climate. Despite this recogni- Participants from all countries expected that the migra- tion, most of the recommended adaptation options did tion and displacement of people would require signifi- not include measures to protect biodiversity and ecosys- cant attention and investments in the future as well as tem services. In Mozambique, during the discussion better planning and governance both in areas of out about forest renewal strategies, participants suggested a and in migration. A growing effort is necessary to need to consider biodiversity and ecosystems' health and support and improve social safety nets including health impacts of climate change and reforestation measures. services that would specifically service migrants and in-migrating areas. Increasing rates of migration often The strongest focus of agricultural issues pertained to leads to overexploitation of people in urban areas, lack planting practices in the context of climate change and of basic services and increasing number of people living variability. However, other inputs for changing practices in slums. It was reported by participants in all the three including market prices were only briefly considered. In countries that migration also weakens social networks Ghana, participants noted that the impacts of weather and community ties. variability are causing fluctuations in cereal and root To address the growing challenges from migration would however require further actions to integrate 6 Activities to reduce migration by targeted action in areas where people migrants, including employment and training are migrating from were also mentioned by the participants. d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 37 crops (cassava, plantain) including cash crops (cocoa and development training. In these two countries, hard coffee) leading to fewer revenues, less food for storage, measures such as building flood gates, flood-resistant malnutrition, food insecurity and migration. However, it roads, dams and infrastructure for processing (fish, is not clear how the planted species need to change in vegetables and other agricultural products) are mostly the future because of climate change while paying atten- listed over medium and long time horizons. Compared tion to changes in the markets. Impacts on livestock and to Ghana and Mozambique, the focus on hard adapta- adaptive practices were also only briefly addressed. tion options is slightly stronger over the short-term horizon in Bangladesh. For example, short-term During the workshop, participants mentioned the role measures include flood embankments, increasing of of social networks, community ties and traditional prac- polder heights, building cyclone shelters, promoting tices in maintaining adaptive capacity in the countries. purification of surface water and improving access and Some of the participants provided examples of changing availability of clean drinking water. customs because of changing weather patterns (wearing traditional dresses in major storms is nearly impossible), When analyzing the hard and soft adaptation options in deteriorating social networks because of migration and diverse sectors, we can observe diverse levels of these suggesting traditional food storage methods and return- measures. For example, in agriculture, the focus is ing back to traditional recipes to cook more nutritious slightly more toward soft options including changes in meals. Further exploration of such practices would be resource governance, microfinance schemes, low-inter- beneficial perhaps during focus groups sessions that ests loans, alternative skills training focusing on youth allow in-depth understating of such issues. and migrants as well, agricultural extension services, small scale water harvesting, food storage and alterna- 4.8 r elaT ive p revalenC e of "ha r d " tive agricultural practices to reduce erosion and run-off. versus "sofT " a dap TaT ion o pT io ns These measures, however, depend on hard adaptation options such as introducing technologies and building In general, soft measures focused on skills and capacity facilities for processing agricultural outputs, promoting development, training and governance. Hard measures technologies for sustainable agriculture, building grain focused on building infrastructure and adopting new silos and dams. For example, in Mozambique, the technologies. In Ghana and Mozambique, most of the participants emphasized the importance of building short-term options are based on community-level flood-resistant roads to ensure market access even actions including small-scale dams and silos supported during heavy rains and flooding, so local price fluctua- by extension services, capacity-building and skill tions and shortages are minimized (Table 4.9). Table 4.9 examples of ComplemenTariTies beTWeen hard and sofT adapTaTion mea- sures in aGriCulTure and WaTer resourCes manaGemenT in The Three CounTries Infrastructure and changes in practices Governance, training and capacity development · Building grain silos · Erosion control by encouraging contour farming and water storing · improved post harvest technologies · sustainable water management such as setting up small-scale agro · farmers' education--water harvesting and contour farming processing industries to utilize farm · training centers and microfinance and to get skills for off-farming season activities products · vocational training--especially for youth, in places with high in-migration; and creation of · promoting sustainable agriculture, markets and training in other sector skills including hairdressing, sewing, carpentry organic farming and appropriate · Alternative skill training to promote self-employment and economic diversification technology to reduce degradation · developing agricultural extension services and passing the actions through district · drought-resistant and early mature assemblies, to intensify education in water harvesting crops--better utilization of water, · funding and more research on potential changes in planted crops diversified production · sensitization to eat more legumes and promoting traditional recipes · Building dams · Education `sensitization about using livestock and nutritional complement rather than · Building flood-resistant roads to ensure social capital market access · improved market-support, marketing skills (especially in mozambique) 38 p s d A p p R o A c h E s f o R i d E n t i f y i n g p R o - p o o R A d A p tAt i o n In other sectors, there are different levels of balance wood collectors, wild food collectors and families prac- between soft and hard measures (Table 4.10). In the ticing subsistence agriculture. Most of these livelihood case of flooding, the focus is on hard measures that types are highly sensitive to changes in climatic patterns should be supported by social services to address the and natural resources. As reported by the participants, needs of affected populations and displaced victims. many of these people could become even more vulnera- Early warning systems require investments into tech- ble through repeated exposures as their coping capaci- nologies and monitoring stations, but also investments ties are further undermined. For example, people with into effective communication strategies and capacity- limited food storage may cope with one drought, but development to effectively utilize these technologies. reoccurring droughts may result in all of their reserves being depleted. Major strategies to improve the situa- In the health sectors the focus is on building additional tion of these vulnerable groups include adoption of health facilities, community and mobile hospitals and alternative activities (e.g. crafts, trades, processing), increasing supplies, but also ensuring clean water and dissemination of new techniques for management (fish, sanitation to limit the occurrence of diseases. According agriculture, forestry), production diversification, to the participants, these hard measures should be community water harvesting, food processing and food accompanied by soft measures such as educating people storage, and creating extension services or farmers about personal hygiene and disease prevention. unions to maintain on-going support. Hard measures such as construction of water collecting and facilities 4.9 d is C ussions on physi Cal an d including wells, dams and water conservation systems s oCia l vulnerabiliT y were also identified as priorities to address physical vulnerabilities. In all three countries, the workshop participants recog- nized the need to improve the situation of the most Vulnerable groups in these countries also include groups vulnerable, who are already significantly affected by such as women and widows as single head of households current challenges and exposures. Such groups includes with low purchasing power and no land ownership, chil- traditional fishers, households with low income, without dren as head of households, dependent households and animals, with less than 3 months of food storage and orphans, elders and handicapped people taking care of farmers practicing rain-fed agriculture, charcoal and orphans. These groups are highly vulnerable regardless Table 4.10 examples of hard and sofT adapTaTion measures in aGriCulTure and WaTer resourCes manaGemenT in The Three CounTries Areas of key impacts Infrastructure and changes in practices Governance, training and capacity development Wild fires · Wildfire control--creating fire belts · Enforcement of laws, creating · Reforestation · public education, development of tools and mechanisms to facilitate farming and prevent slash and burn Flooding · flood-proof roads--increase capacity of drainage systems to · social services--providing houses flood absorb increased volumes of water, flood-resistant materials displaced victims, social services used in road construction · flood gates--control water levels · Building dykes embankments and sea defense walls Occurrence of · health facilities--improved sanitation, proper drainage system, · health education on personal hygiene diseases · more community and mobile hospitals, adequate health supplies, emergency response teams emergency · Early warning system--equipping meteorological service with · development of communication mechanisms preparedness modern technology and agencies and forecasts · Early warning systems and forecasting--ghana meteorological agency, health extension agency d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 39 of climate variability and weather-patterns. For members context of other development needs, institutional capaci- of these groups, the participants suggested improvement ties and preferences of diverse stakeholders. in basic services and vocational training. These measures include access to free basic health services, assistance In terms of future adaptation priorities and pathways, we from social programs, introduction of substitute family can distinguish between overall changes in governance models, integration of adopted family modality, access to in the sectors such as forestry, land-use, water and fish- technical and professional schools and promoting self- eries towards sustainability, and specific measures to employment through micro-credit systems. Participants improve adaptive capacities and reduce sensitivities to in Mozambique emphasized that these actions need to exposures including climate change that include infra- be pursued collectively with government, NGOs and structure development, changing practices and capacity civil society. building. Short term priorities include hard measures such as community-based rainwater harvesting and 4.10 s eQ uenCinG, l everaGinG a n d post-harvest facilities in Ghana, construction of commu- Tradeoffs amonG a dap TaTi o n nity-level dykes for water retention and alternative crops o pT ions in Mozambique, and building flood embankments, increasing polder heights, surface water purification and Overall knowledge in communities regarding possible afforestation in Bangladesh. In Ghana improving health impacts of climate change is increasing; they have signif- services is also seen as a priority short-term action. icant experience with current climate variability and These measures should be supplemented by capacity with the effectiveness of applied adaptation measures to development and training activities including the intro- enable them to advise on potential future adaptations. It duction of sustainable agricultural practices, improving is however, important to move beyond only identifying health services, social safety nets, and wildfire control in discrete adaptation options to planning for adaptation in Ghana; improved finishing and agricultural processes, Table 4.11 ConneCTinG adapTaTion responses foCused on WaTer manaGemenT, aGriCulTure and soCial seCuriTy in The sTudied CounTries Sectors Current actions Short-term Medium and long -term Water resource · local water harvesting · increasing the extent of current · Rainwater harvesting (run-off capture) and management from community sources programs on water harvesting building dams in all countries · Accelerate small-scale water harvesting · programs of water programs (household community) harvesting are already a especially major drought-prone priority in ghana agricultural areas agriculture · changes in planted crops · post harvest management · Building dams for irrigation (small scale and planting times in · (silos, food banks, training to learn community management dams) ghana and Bangladesh ways processing) in mozambique · more R&d to new crops resistant to · Access to microcredit in all countries potential impacts of climate change in all · land-tenure security in ghana countries · Access to land for women in all · improvements in resource governance countries and mainstreaming climate change in into agriculture and other sectoral policies in all countries emergency · shelters are available in · Better reflect on peoples situation · crosscutting emergency preparedness preparedness Bangladesh including gender issues and migration strategy implementation when building shelters Social · low level of social · including migrants in the social nets in · social safety nets and food banks to challenges security in selected areas all countries elevate significant impacts on food in all countries · services for resettled displaced people production in all countries · migration to urban areas in all countries in all countries · Alternative skill training for migrants in all countries 40 p s d A p p R o A c h E s f o R i d E n t i f y i n g p R o - p o o R A d A p tAt i o n support for post-harvest management, access to micro- offering awareness-raising and training in soil and water credit and wildfire management in Mozambique; and conservation, agro-forestry, financial and marketing creating subsidized social schemes, government-subsided issues and renewable energy technologies. housing and fish conservation in Bangladesh. With respect to the trade-offs inherent in the proposed Over medium and long time horizons there is an adaptation pathway, it was noted where interventions increased focus on hard measures including building compromised the basic needs of poor and vulnerable dams, improving drainage in Ghana, construction of groups. For example, where adaptation activities include flood gates and roads in Mozambique and building intensive reforestation practices, the availability and flood-protection walls, cleaning river beds and introduc- accessibility of pasture for the poor and/or landless is ing new agricultural technologies in Bangladesh. reduced. Similarly, where infrastructure interventions Furthermore, important elements of future pathways are such as dams and dykes are proposed, the risk of reset- changes in land, water, and natural resource management tlement and changes to the local ecosystem must be and governance. This includes sustainable land-use considered, particularly where vulnerable groups are management (forestry, mining and agriculture), secure dependent on the local environment for livelihood secu- tenure, and democratic control of land including gender rity. In order to sufficiently acknowledge the impact of balance in access to power and resources. Strengthening some of these trade-offs on vulnerable groups, it is democratic governance and access to resources supported important to explore those interventions which best with capacity building and training activities are recog- enable a pro-poor adaptation pathway. nized as key elements for increasing capacities in responding to both climate and development challenges. 4 . 11 p o l i Cy a n d i n sTi Tu Ti o n s : Finally, moving towards sustainable and integrated s Tr e nG T h e n i nG ad a pT i v e resources management and improving social policies and C a paCi Ty protections are the key suggested actions for all coun- tries. Social policies include improvement of affordable In all the countries, the participants emphasized that houses, health care, access to clean water, sanitation and changes in governance, improving policies and institu- access to relevant education. In Bangladesh, social tions that develop, implement and monitor policies and protection issues, such as housing is recognized as an regulation are needed to ensure long-term improve- immediate priority. Over longer time horizons, all coun- ments in adaptive capacities. tries included measures to improve social protections and safety nets. The relationship between diversity of In summary, despite the cross-cutting nature of the sectoral measures is presented in Table 4.11. adaptation pathway, there emerged a number of further refinements which helped to strengthen the proposed In addressing the needs of vulnerable groups, partici- pathway. Amongst these refinements emerged a theme pants noted a number of additional considerations for of improved governance at the national scale, support- the design of a pro-poor adaptation pathway. In particu- ing processes of decentralization and capacity building lar, a number of suggestions proposed the need for more of local institutions, resulting in a more stable and post-harvest safety nets, including improved access to attractive arena for investment (overseas and domestic), trade of surplus harvest, as well as access to processing as well as a platform from which to begin mainstream- and storage facilities. In order to facilitate access to ing climate issues into national sectoral policies as well processing and storage facilities, as well as other physi- as local level development plans. Complementing cal, social, and economic capitals, micro-credit mecha- improved governance and decentralization was the nisms, offered at low, manageable interest rates, can also desire to improve international cooperation and apply facilitate a pro-poor approach towards adaptation. lessons learned from other countries related to adapta- Improved access to micro-credit, trade, and small- tion, including technology and knowledge transfer. It is system technologies (biogas, micro hydro energy, etc) also necessary to try to involve traditional decision- along with improvements in agriculture must be making structures to generate ownership and better supported through an expansive rural extension service, enforcement of the implemented policies and actions. d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 41 Furthermore, administration of adaptation and devel- different way if change is to be affected. For example, opment measures in countries needs to be improved by in Ghana, participants emphasized that the new poli- reducing corruption, simplifying licensing procedures cies should try to provide options and incentives for and revising out-dated codes and standards (i.e. build- changes and not only restrict activities; they should ing codes and EIA standards). Participants also also have realistic, built-in monitoring mechanisms. emphasized the need to ensure proper law enforcement This is particularly important in the context of climate as this was identified as the most effective way of change that will require adaptive policies with built in improving fire management and sustainable resource flexibility to accommodate changes as new information management. For many current policies, monitoring about impacts and their consequences become and enforcement may need to be approached in a available. 42 5. Key meThodoloGiCal floods and extreme weather events. Furthermore, in developing countries, there is limited information avail- advanCes able on the potential consequences of future climate change on resources such as agricultural production, fish 5.1 CommenTs on Key meThodoloGiCal population, occurrence of diseases or deterioration of advanCes infrastructure. By focusing on observed impacts of climate variability and lessons learned from responding There is a growing amount of information available on to them, participants are able to think more effectively sectoral adaptations based on the projections of future about what future projections could mean to their climate change. We also have increasing information on regions and countries and to identify the most appropri- local adaptations and their effectives. PSD approaches ate adaptation responses. are well established in building on this information by identifying strategic directions and long-term objectives Responses to climate change need to be relevant to the in companies, cities, regions and at different levels of people who are affected by them currently, but it is also governments. In the context of climate change, PSD desirable that the measures are linked to other develop- builds on the experiences of the involved participants, so ment priorities and to assist countries and regions to they do not perceive climate change and needed make development decisions that increase adaptive responses as something outside of their expertise. capacities. Presently, many studies have focused on iden- However, there are only limited examples of applying tifying adaptation options by imposing future climate this approach to climate change issues. The PSD model outputs on current situations. During the work- approaches may also be used to guide and complement shops, participants were engaged in visioning exercises at model based approaches including projections of the early stages of the PSD process, which help them to climate change, economic assessments of adaptation think about climate change and impacts in the context costs and qualitative approaches, such as focus groups of other development challenges that regions and coun- and interviews. tries are facing and also to prioritize those adaptation options that are in the line with future development Applied PSD workshop design allows participants to pathways. This created opportunities to review the integrate their own experiences on climate variability created future development pathway and determine and weather-related events with projections of future whether it is robust enough to withstand impacts of climate change. We consider this to be highly relevant, climate change. In some cases responses to climate because of the high uncertainty and large spatial scale of change are already integrated into existing strategies, projections of climate change, and limited information because many of the regions are already experiencing of potential future changes in climatic variables that impacts of climate change-related events. For example, participants could easily relate to such as droughts, water harvesting in Ghana, flood protection in d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 43 Mozambique and emergency preparedness in change go through a process of identifying key scenario Bangladesh. However, the identified development deci- elements, key uncertainties, creating scenarios and then sions need to be accelerated to respond to increasing identifying policies and measures that are needed to vulnerabilities. Many development decisions identified achieve the scenarios. Such processes were used to by the participants were highly relevant for addressing develop the scenarios in the GEO-4 process (www. climate change impacts, including promoting sustainable unep.org/geo). In our previous work on future scenario resource management, which was both part of the devel- development in the context of climate change in the opment pathway and adaptation pathway. Lake Balaton region (Hungary), we applied similar steps as in this project, but divided into 5 half- day The applied PSD approach offers opportunities to look sessions (Bizikova et al., 2009). SRES scenarios were at cross-sectoral linkages between adaptation options downscaled to help participants envision future devel- and in this way identify options that offer multiple opment pathways then they develop their own future benefits and options that need to be implemented in development pathway. other sectors to harness the benefits of the adaptation actions. An example of this includes the linkages Other examples of PSD include a PSD process in between post-harvest processing, road network develop- British Columbia, Canada focused on development ment and skill training to create alternative sources of scenarios of local futures under different IPCC scenar- income, as identified earlier in this report. ios (Shaw et al., 2009). In this context, the research team, in consultation with local stakeholders, developed Major challenges of the applied PSD approach include future socio-economic scenarios based on the IPCC challenges with designing a workshop with diverse SRES scenarios and then assessed the estimated climate participants. Many key experts in the countries are over- change impacts related to the each scenario and visual- committed and already participate in many workshops ized possible adaptation options. This study illustrates and conferences; therefore, they may not be willing to that addressing climate change in a participatory way, participate. Gathering diverse groups of participants with credible but easily accessible visuals, and at a scale could also create substantial costs for travel and accom- that people can identify with, may be critical in building modation for participants living away from major cities. capacity for climate change action (Shaw et al., 2009). In this project, the local country teams ensured that local PSD workshops were also held so not only views Another recent project has focused on illuminating of participants living in the major cities were collected. potential futures of hydro electricity in the province of Manitoba (Canada; Swanson and Rothman, 2009), 5.2 Comparison WiT h psd e xerCi s e s where the research team developed a set of three scenar- ConduCT ed else Where ios by using a series of half day workshops. They worked with three different projections of climate Currently, we have information available about the rela- change including conservative estimates and models tionship between development decisions related to projecting significant impacts for the area. The research GHG mitigation actions and how changes in develop- team facilitated a number of half day workshops to ment decisions can provide positive or negative contri- identify current development challenges, major uncer- butions to climate change. In this project, we tried to tainties in future trends and key elements of the devel- apply the PSD approach to help identify impacts of opment scenarios combined with different projections climate change and adaptation responses in the context of climate change. After assessing the robustness of the of other development challenges. scenarios, adaptation options were identified to improve the performance of the corporate decisions under differ- In the PSD approach used in this project, we addressed ent climate change projections in each scenario. climate change impacts and adaptation options in the context of current and future development challenges, in In contrast to these approaches, we focused on identi- short, 1.5-day workshops. Similar scenario exercises fied development priorities that mattered to stakehold- focusing only on development pathways without climate ers, partly because our primary concern was to identify 44 p s d A p p R o A c h E s f o R i d E n t i f y i n g p R o - p o o R A d A p tAt i o n relevant responses to climate change and to create adap- socio-economic impacts and environmental conditions, tation pathways instead of developing future scenarios and their usefulness for local, regional or national adap- themselves. tation work. 5.3 sC ope for inT eGraTion WiTh Practically, PSD is an effective approach to identify key oT her r esearCh elemen T s areas of the impacts of climate change and adaptation options that are relevant for the stakeholders. PSD could In the previous chapters, we outlined some of the results be conducted at the early stages of a project to identify of the PSD approaches. However, to make the key areas for the modeling approaches that are relevant outcomes more relevant it is beneficial to link the PSD for the stakeholders. Stakeholders could also provide approach with other methodological approaches. The information about types of needed infrastructure, their ultimate focus is on how we can link quantitative infor- spatial allocations, their experiences with climate mation about current trends and climate projections change-related impacts and related costs, and planned with qualitative scenarios of realistic yet plausible devel- initiatives to address climate change issues. They could opment pathways and then transforming them into also provide information about accessible data that policies and measures on the ground. However, integra- might be included in the models. This would help to tion between different methods, disciplines and between ensure that the modeling outcomes provide more realis- different stakeholders is a challenging process. Increased tic information for the decision-makers. Based on our attention needs to be given to maintaining the dialogue experience, this also gives opportunities for the research between researchers and community groups on the team and the modelers to introduce key uncertainties challenges and uncertainties of climate change projec- and limitations to the stakeholders and build their confi- tions and encouraging information sharing that can be dence that they are focusing on `the right things'. used to advance adaptation and development despite existing uncertainties. For the integration with other During the project development, PSD approach could methodological approaches we can distinguish to major be effectively combined with focus groups and inter- challenges including: views to aid with estimating current experiences with adaptations. From PSD we could then gather informa- · Integration across diverse knowledge domains (scien- tion on applied adaptation options, and further our tific, traditional, and local knowledge) is necessary to understanding of how adaptation options are linked to address the differences among scientists in various sensitivities, coping capacities and livelihoods of local disciplines and between scientists and stakeholders, stakeholders, focus groups and interviews could provide including decision makers and the community. such in-depth understating. · Integration across diverse purposes (producing high-level scientific outcomes, providing inputs or Through combining PSD with GIS and other spatially- validating model approaches and being relevant for explicit approaches, we could get better insights on how policy making, management and guiding donor changes in vulnerability, impacts and adaptation options programs) is needed to address the differences are manifested over regions and countries. This is very between objectives and outcomes required by important for mapping risk and capacities, because not involved stakeholder groups including donors and all of these characteristics can be supported by data sets their institutions, and outcomes relevant for usable by GIS. Combining maps based on available GIS resource managers and policy makers. information and participants' insights during a struc- tured dialogue, we can get better understanding what To enhance this process, it is necessary to review the the issues are even with limited data. GIS maps can be accessible inputs, desirable outputs and products, and used as dialogue starters rather than final products. the planned process structure when the actual frame- work is being developed. Furthermore, it would be At the final stages of the project, stakeholders could useful to review current data sets and projections of help in validating the results, in assessing their potential climate change to assess their suitability to reflect on incorporation with other on-going initiatives and d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 45 identifying potential directions for future work. participation, qualitative methods, collecting data and However, it is generally not recommended to involve applying models so that we produce relevant outcomes. only stakeholders in these later stages of the projects, This often requires involving diverse groups of stake- because the time and resources available for modifica- holders in different stages of the projects so we mini- tion in the results are often minimal. So the stakehold- mize the pressure on the time and busy schedules of ers consequently may feel that their inputs are not taken stakeholders, while still benefiting from the inputs. This on board in the project outcomes. also requires collaboration and regular communications between different research groups working with the When integrating PSD approaches with other methods, different methods so they are aware of the results and it is important to keep in mind the key goals of the potential constraints or changes in the results compared project so there is a balance between reasonable levels of to the initial consensus. 46 6. ConClusions and Most of the countries have already encountered major impacts in weather-related disasters including cyclones reCommendaTion and floods in Mozambique, drought, cyclical water scar- city and floods in river basins in Ghana and finally sea- 6.1 s ummary of f indinGs level rise (tidal and storms), flash floods and heavy rainfall and salinity intrusion in Bangladesh. Based on The identified development challenges are similar across the future climate projections and observed trends, the the studied countries. These include low quality of basic following key impacts were identified: reduced water services contributing to increased incidence of diseases availability and drought, soil degradation, wild fires, and poverty, depleted natural resources especially forest floods, coastal erosion and the increased occurrence of and water, increased migration and uncoordinated and diseases. When addressing consequences of potential growing urbanization. impacts of projected climate change and adaptation actions, participants built on their knowledge and expe- Sensitivity in the studied countries generally refers to riences with past extreme-weather events and variability the overall level of social development, high levels of and on their aspirations for future development in their poverty, food insecurity and limited availability of countries. In all the studied countries, some adaptation basic services. In countries such as Ghana and measures were already being implemented as autono- Mozambique, the major challenges are malaria and mous actions, especially at the household or community HIV/AIDS; while diarrhea is common in all coun- levels as autonomous actions. Many of these practices tries. Households that are practicing rain-fed agricul- were identified by participants as being unsustainable or ture, households with limited food storage and high ineffective, including fishing younger (immature) fish to incidence of poverty are also vulnerable to weather- keep the catch sizes in Mozambique; expanding farm related exposures. In terms of exposure, all countries sizes in Ghana; and the large distances between cyclone are experiencing increasing impacts of weather-related shelters resulting in human fatalities in Bangladesh. events such as floods, droughts, cyclones). Impacts of these events are often worsened by unsustainable Based on identified consequences of climate change, human actions and practices such as deforestation, development challenges and priorities for adaptation increased erosion, unsustainable water resource actions, some key actions were identified by participants management and destroying natural coastal protection in all three countries: leading to sea water intrusion and coastal erosion. Based on these existing constraints, participants from 1. Some of the planned development priorities and the studied countries were concerned about limited actions need to be accelerated and supported adaptive capacities available to people to deal with through additional investment in training and skill future exposures. development, as they also increase capacity for d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 47 adaptation (i.e., improving basic health care services investments such as flood gates, dykes, flood-resistant in areas prone to diseases such as malaria and diar- roads, improving basic social services, and a number soft rhea, which may be exacerbated by climate change; investments related to food production, processing and and promoting agricultural product processing and storage, as well as training in alternative skill sets. off-farm income generation). Significant improvements in governance including 2. Some of the on-going development programs and decentralization, increased participation, sustainable actions dealing with current impacts need to be resource management and secured land tenure were intensified and applied to other regions that will be listed as needed preconditions to increase the adaptive facing impacts in the future (i.e., alternative crops capacity of communities. and rainwater collection, are often a small-scale initiative, however these should be expanded by When analyzing the hard and soft adaptation options in supporting equipment in areas where reduced rain- diverse sectors, we can observe diverse levels of these fall and other impacts are expected.) measures. In agriculture, the focus is slightly more 3. Review and modification of current resource gover- towards soft options including changes in resource nance rules and policies and their enforcement to governance, microfinance schemes, low-interest loans, reflect the need to build adaptive capacity (i.e. alternative skills training focusing on youth and water, forest and fisheries management including migrants, agricultural extension services, small scale conservation and sustainable management) water harvesting, food storage and alternative agricul- 4. Identify and integrate climate change adaptation tural practices to reduce erosion and run-off. These measures into current development and investment measures, however, depend on hard adaptation options planning, along with the associated capacity devel- such as introducing technologies and building facilities opment to support these measures (up-grading for processing agricultural outputs, promoting technolo- current dyke heights, building flood-resistant roads, gies for sustainable agriculture and building grain silos early warning systems and emergency shelters) and dams. In other sectors there are different levels of balance between soft and hard measures. In the case of All measures, whether development or adaptation- flooding, the focus is on hard measures that should be driven should involve traditional decision-making supported by social services to address the needs of authorities, decentralized structures and consider tradi- affected populations and displaced victims. Early warn- tional practices and communities' social networks in ing systems require investments into technologies and their design and implementation. monitoring stations, but also investments into effective communication strategies and capacity-development to Moving forward with the actions listed above requires effectively utilize these technologies. In the health expanding capacities and resources in local and national sector the focus is on building additional health facili- institutions, so decision-makers can effectively design, ties, community and mobile hospitals and increasing implement and monitor the actions. Gender consider- supplies, but also ensuring clean water and sanitation to ations and participation of women in this process is limit the occurrence of diseases. According to the essential for effective design and implementation of participants, these hard measures should be accompa- climate change adaptation responses due to the dispro- nied by soft measures such as educating people about portionate effects of climate change on women and the personal hygiene and disease prevention. Overall, most primary role played by women in many of the affected of the adaptation measures will require additional sectors such as water, agriculture and healthcare. capacity development to introduce new skills and develop existing strengths so that people in local and In terms of specific adaptation actions, key sectors that national institutions are able to design, implement and will be affected by climate change include agriculture, monitor the required actions. forestry and water resources, which result in direct impacts on human well-being, food security, drinking Future adaptation priorities and pathways, can be split water availability and migration. Adaptation measures into overall changes in governance in sectors such as identified by participants included relatively high-cost forestry, land-use, water and fisheries; and specific 48 p s d A p p R o A c h E s f o R i d E n t i f y i n g p R o - p o o R A d A p tAt i o n measures to improve adaptive capacities and reduce adaptation options that are relevant immediately (i.e., sensitivities to exposures, including climate change. short-term actions), but also adaptations that are rele- These measures include infrastructure development, vant over medium and long-term horizons. An overview changing practices and capacity building. Short term of indentified major priorities over short-term horizons measures include hard measures such as community- in the study countries in listed in 6.1. based rainwater harvesting and post-harvest facilities in Ghana, construction of community level dykes for water In general, the results of the projects are in the line with retention; alternative crops in Mozambique; and build- the suggested activities in the countries' NAPA's. In ing flood embankments, increasing polder heights, Bangladesh, the NAPA identifies actions focused on surface water purification and afforestation in infrastructure such as coastal afforestation, providing Bangladesh. These measures are supplemented by drinking water to coastal communities, construction of capacity- development and training activities flood shelters, enhancing resilience of urban infrastruc- ture and industries, exploring options for insurance and Over medium and long term horizons there is an other emergency preparedness and promoting changes increased focus on hard measures including building in coastal fisheries and planted agricultural crops to dams, improving drainage in Ghana, construction of reflect the increased salinity. In terms of measures flood gates and roads in Mozambique and building focused on capacity-building, training and skills devel- flood-protection walls, cleaning river beds and introduc- opment, the NAPA includes capacity building for inte- ing new technologies to agriculture in Bangladesh. grating and mainstreaming climate change in planning, Furthermore, important elements of future pathways are policies and programs, inclusion of climate change changes in land, water, and natural resource manage- issues in the schools' curriculum, development of eco- ment and governance. specific adaptive knowledge and promotion of research on drought and floods (NAPA Bangladesh, 2005). In In addressing the needs of vulnerable groups, participants our workshops, outcomes focused on infrastructure noted a number of additional considerations for the development also included emergency preparedness, design of pro-poor adaptation actions. In particular, a afforestation and providing clean water. The workshops number of suggestions proposed the need for more provided more details about each measure including targeted emergency preparedness and post-disaster relief, types of shelters and gender-aspects. Participants also basic service accessibility, post-harvest safety nets and emphasized that more attention is needed on coastal access to processing and storage facilities. It is also neces- protection besides afforestation; the additional measures sary to consider changes in the available capacities in included construction and rehabilitation of flood communities that are repeatedly faced with disasters and embankments and increasing polder heights. Finally, how post-disaster relief efforts can contribute to rebuild- during the workshop specific measures to improve the ing capacity, and addressing increasing sensitivities situation of vulnerable people were identified such including food insecurity, health and sanitation services. subsidized social schemes (food, education, health) and government-subsidized housing facilities. These 6.2 Con G ruenC e WiTh naT ional p l a n s measures are more related to development action but in CludinG napas are also of significant benefit in increasing adaptive capacity to climate change. NAPAs were available for two of the study countries, Bangladesh and Mozambique. In general, the NAPAs In Mozambique, the NAPA outlines priorities such as in these countries are focused only on short ­term strengthening early warning systems including seasonal targets up to next two years and long-term targets up to forecasts and locally-relevant warning information and five years. However many of the suggested actions in dissemination; strengthening capacities of agricultural the NAPAs including changes in agricultural practices, producers to cope with climate change by promoting water management, urban infrastructure development associations of farmers; small-scale irrigation systems; are probably unlikely to be completed in such a short financing schemes for small businesses; reduction of time horizons. In this project, we tried to identify climate change impacts in the coastal zones; and d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 49 changing management in water resources to effectively correspond to the current and future development chal- respond to floods and droughts (NAPA Mozambique, lenges that the different regions and vulnerable groups 2007). The workshop outcomes provided similar priori- may be facing based on the knowledge and experiences ties to those outlined in the NAPA; however, they of a variety of stakeholders". The PSD workshops also provided more elaboration on the types of activities and aimed to help identify integrated and robust adaptation the synergies between them and other sectoral priorities pathways which (i) prioritize adaptation measures and and their applicability to address the needs of vulnerable desired investments and (ii) recognize synergies and groups. The actions listed in the adaptation pathways trade-offs between these investments. These workshops also included increasing focus on changes in resource also offered an opportunity to explore the types of governance and infrastructure development. sectoral and institutional measures that would be required to facilitate the integration of adaptation Overall, the suggested adaptation actions and pathways actions into local projects and practices. Based on the are consistent with the actions outlined in NAPAs for lessons learned from the phase I and II PSD work- Mozambique and Bangladesh, though the results shops, the key elements are summarized below. A provide a more realistic pathway for several reasons. Capacity Development Manual, presenting step-by-step Because they are building on synergies with other details of workshop design, planning and facilitation is development needs and sectors, the actions are spread submitted alongside this report. out over longer time horizons so the feasibility that they can be implemented is higher and they also pay signifi- Developing future scenarios: Ideally, after the opening cant attention to capacity-development, and changes in session, the workshop would begin with a Future governance that are necessary to maintain the results of Visioning activity that allows participants to envision a adaptation actions. desired yet realistic future for their area/community. This helps to provide context for the rest of the work- 6.3 psd d esiGn ConsideraT ions a n d shop focused on identifying impacts of climate change Key e lemen T s of psd WorKs h o p and adaptation options. This session should also include for ClimaTe adap TaTion discussion about current development challenges, However, if there are time constraints (i.e. if the work- We can summarize the objectives of the PSD workshop shop must fit into a 1-day delivery) or if the workshop as "to explore existing and alternative adaptation options is at a scale where such visioning would be to broad to which are relevant for the different livelihoods and be tractable (e.g. national workshop) the alternative is to Table 6.1 overvieW of shorT-Term measures in all Three CounTries Types of actions Ghana Mozambique Bangladesh · Rain-water harvesting · construction of dykes for water retention (small · construction and rehabilitation of infrastructure and · post harvest management scale) flood embankments · Aquaculture · conservation agriculture including planting · increase of polder heights changes in practice crops resistant to drought · more cyclone shelters (gender- Mostly friendly, livestock, solar panels) · Afforestation · purification of surface water (access and availability) · short duration crop varieties · Wildfire control · simplification of licensing procedures for small · conserve fish sanctuaries Mostly services, · development of sustainable and medium enterprises · subsidized social schemes (food, development governance, training and agricultural practices · improved fishing nets & improved fish education, health) capacity · culturally sensitive management to promote sustainable use of · government-subsidized housing education resources facilities · health services and · Rehabilitation of rural commerce and trade supporting social nets networks · secure land-tenure · Wildfire management and changes in standards 50 p s d A p p R o A c h E s f o R i d E n t i f y i n g p R o - p o o R A d A p tAt i o n include a presentation of the future vision based on key prioritization of adaptation options based on the strategic planning documents (NAPA's, PRSPs) and urgency of needed actions, the top 5 most urgent adap- other future oriented development plans as prepared by tation options from each group would be posted at the the country, region, or community. front of the workshop room for all to review. The result is a preliminary matrix of pathways for initial adapta- Impacts and adaptation options: Based on comments tion investment. In order to assess the internal cohesion received from national-level participants throughout of the adaptations in the matrix towards an integrated Phase I and Phase II, participants noted the need to pathway that will best meet the needs of those most discern direct and indirect impacts of climate change. vulnerable to climate change, participants are asked to This would mean identifying first primary impacts of reflect on four key questions. The first question focuses climate change linked to projections such as impacts of on what might be missing from the collective pathways changing precipitations patterns on for example agricul- in the matrix when viewed together, in particular from ture and then elaborating further on additional impacts the perspective of vulnerable groups. The second ques- such as food insecurity, practice fluctuations etc. Similar tion focuses on the preconditions necessary to imple- approaches can be applied for identification of adapta- ment the adaptations in the matrix. The third and tion options when participants identify direct responses fourth questions focus on the synergies and trade-offs such as building a dyke or alternative skill development most apparent among the proposed pathways and programs and then identifying other measures that are encourage participants to think about how investment needed to make the adaptation options effective. Once options might best be clustered and/or streamlined the climate change projections are translated to locally- (synergies), and which options might need to be relevant impacts, participants will be better able to char- weighted against others (trade-offs). Having partici- acterize which groups are most vulnerable to the pants evaluate the proposed pathway for gaps, precon- impacts of climate change, and which adaptation ditions, synergies and trade-offs will help guide wise options might best address the needs of those vulnera- investment decisions for robust and consistent adapta- ble groups. tion pathways that target the needs of vulnerable groups. Adaptation pathways: In Phases I and II, participants were asked to prioritize adaptation options in the Combining group work, with plenary sessions and short-, medium-, and long-term. However, based on presentations: Design of the PSD workshops during comments received, it was agreed that participants Phase I and II managed to incorporate a diversity of might not have the background, expertise, or the infor- approaches to engage and maintain the interests of the mation necessary to address the appropriate (and realis- workshop participants. This included inviting country tic) time horizons. Given the target audience of the team members and researchers to introduce available proposed PSD workshop (vulnerable groups and repre- future socio-economic scenarios and projections of sentatives of, or people knowledgeable about, vulnerable climate change. Future visions, impacts of climate groups), participants will however, have a strong idea as change and adaptations were developed by participants to which interventions are more urgent based on those in small group sessions. Finally, outcomes of the small which they feel might have the greatest direct benefit to group sessions were brought together in plenary sessions these groups. As a result, we recommend developing the to comment on groups' outcomes and to discuss cross- adaptation pathway based on urgency of the needed cutting issues. Combining small groups' sessions and adaptation measures. By taking this focus, participants plenary discussions worked well in giving opportunities will have a better understanding of what is expected to participants to present their ideas in the small groups from the activity and be better able to undertake the and also the participants benefited from getting feed- activity, resulting in stronger, more robust outputs for back from their colleagues. review by the larger workshop group. Ensuring the right audience: Given that the focus of Integrating adaptation pathways using 4 leading the PSD workshop is to determine preference for adap- questions: Once groups have completed the tation investment amongst vulnerable groups, it is d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 51 imperative that the targeted list of participants represent Effective early warning systems and disaster prepared- the needs and priorities of vulnerable groups. This repre- ness are necessary to address current exposure, and will sentation will vary according to scale of workshop (local, likely have growing importance over time. This measure regional and/or national), but in general, should include includes building more small shelters in close proximity vulnerable groups as well as representatives of, or people to each other so the communities and families are not knowledgeable about, vulnerable groups. Ensuring the separated. It is also necessary to consider changes in the right participants are present at a PSD workshop as available capacities in communities that are repeatedly dictated by the desired scale, is critical to successfully faced with disasters and how post-disaster relief efforts meeting the objectives of the PSD workshops. contribute to rebuilding capacity and addressing sensi- tivities including food insecurity, health and sanitation Impact and adaptation cards with photos as visual services. cues: As a design consideration for the impact and adaptation cards, it is important to use photos taken in 1. Improving post-harvest services and water stor- the country, either from previous field work or other reli- age/water harvesting are crucial options for main- able sources. Despite participants' assumed and/or taining the livelihoods of the people in rural areas, inherent knowledge of the impacts of environmental consequently helping to reduce outmigration. This change, and associated adaptation interventions, it is includes a set of diverse measures starting in the useful to present participants with visual reminders that short-term with supporting and building on the are culturally and geographically appropriate. The inten- on-going activities. tion is to move beyond the four walls of the workshop 2. Options such as social protection, social services venue and draw in the stories and pictures of those and safety nets were identified as ways to improve most vulnerable to climate change. Photographs that are the situation of vulnerable groups. These actions selected strategically based on realistic future scenarios were identified as high-cost options exceeding of varying frequency, intensity and duration will resources currently available. Participants envisioned increase participants' ability to relate to the visualized gradual investments into social and health services impacts and/or adaptation options. and safety nets with stronger emphasis over longer time horizons by adding migrants and potentially 6.4 r e CommendaT ions for pro -p o o r displaced people to the systems over time a dap TaTion in WorK shop 3. Improved governance of water and land over the Coun Tries medium and long-term was identified as a neces- sary precondition for effective management of In addressing the needs of vulnerable groups, several investments including infrastructure, dams, dykes additional considerations for the design of the adapta- and also for the success of community-based activi- tion pathway were noted. In particular, a number of ties. Changes in resource governance were also suggestions proposed the need for more support for considered to be a high-cost option. basic services and safety nets, emergency preparedness 4. Strengthened civil society, using decentralized and post-disaster relief, post-harvest management, structures, engaging traditional authorities in including processing and storage facilities. It is very planning, and using existing platforms for commu- important to understand the sensitivities that poor nity engagement were identified as crucial for communities are facing, such as lack of food, deterio- addressing a number of issues. These included rated social networks, lack of basic services, housing and improving security of land tenure, regulation employment. Many of these challenges will be increased enforcement, increasing capacity and awareness of by climate change impacts, but only focusing on personnel implementing policies and carrying out responding to climate change won't create significant monitoring, providing alternatives and reward improvements in the situation of poor people. When systems for people, rather than only restricting focusing on specific measures that could address the resource use. needs of poor people the key adaptation priorities iden- 5. Special attention needs to be given to measures tified can be summed-up as follows: focused on urban and peri-urban areas that are 52 p s d A p p R o A c h E s f o R i d E n t i f y i n g p R o - p o o R A d A p tAt i o n often affected by migration and increasing concen- collaboration and regular communications between tration of people that are poor and vulnerable, as different research groups working with the different they don't have their own production systems and methods so they are aware of potential changes in livestock. Social services, and skill training are espe- outputs compared to initial consensus. cially relevant for these areas, but efforts should also be made to improve adaptation in rural areas, in Practical examples of combing the PSD with other order to give an alternative to migration. approaches at different stage of the project cycle are listed below: 6.5 r e CommendaT ions on inT eG r aTi n G psd a pproa Ches WiT h oThe r 1. PSD is an effective approach to identify conse- researC h Tools quences of climate change and adaptation options that are relevant for the stakeholders. PSD can be PSD is a useful tool that builds on the involvement of conducted at the early stages of a project to identify stakeholders to explore the future in a creative and key areas for the modeling approaches that are rele- policy-relevant way. PSD is very useful when we are vant for the stakeholders. Stakeholders could also dealing with issues that incorporate high levels of provide information about types of needed infra- uncertainty to determine how different groups of stake- structure, their spatial allocations, and their experi- holders view the range of possible responses including ence related to climate change damage and policy and management options available to them, and adaptation measures and the associated costs. what public policy, or investment support is needed to 2. During the project development, PSD approach facilitate effective future actions. However, to make the could be effectively combined with focus groups outcomes more relevant it is beneficial to link the PSD and interviews to better understand the effective- approach with other methodological approaches. ness of adaptation options and their linkages to sensitivities, coping capacities and livelihoods The ultimate focus is on how to link quantitative infor- 3. Combining PSD with GIS and other spatially- mation about current trends and climate projections explicit approaches, will give better insights on how with qualitative scenarios of development pathways, changes in vulnerability, impacts and adaptation local and regional impacts of climate change and adap- options are manifested over regions and countries. tation actions. When focusing on integration we can This is very important for mapping risk and capaci- distinguish between integration across diverse knowl- ties, because not all of these characteristics can be edge domains (scientific, traditional, and local knowl- supported by GIS data sets. edge) and integration across diverse purposes 4. At the final stages of the project, stakeholders could (producing high-level scientific outcomes, providing help in validating the results, in assessing their inputs or validating model approaches and being rele- potential incorporation with other on-going initia- vant for policy making, management and guiding donor tives and identifying potential directions for future programs). To enhance this process, it is usually benefi- work. cial to review the accessible inputs, desirable outputs and products, and the planned process structure when 6 . 6 r eC o m m e n d aTi o n s o n us e o f p s d the actual framework is being developed. ap p r o aC h e s i n do n o r a n d naT i o n a l p l a n n i nG C o n Te xTs Being clear on the goals and objectives of the project helps us find a balance between reasonable levels of PSD approach is well suited to explore different path- participation, qualitative methods, collecting data and ways and to reconcile different perspectives when applying models so that we produce relevant outcomes. addressing challenging issues including climate change This often requires involving diverse groups of stake- impacts, adaptations and vulnerability. The approach holders in different stages of the projects so we mini- also offers flexibility in designing PSD processes so we mize the pressure on their busy schedules while still are able to gather information that is relevant for plan- benefiting from the needed inputs. This also requires ning and decision-making. d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 53 Based on the lessons learned from the series of work- areas such as agriculture, water resource manage- shops in Phase I and II and our previous work, we ment, emergency preparedness and basic services. would suggest the PSD approach useful for following · Exploring hard and soft adaptation options in dif- key areas: ferent areas and over time so the actions conducted by governments and/or by donors are complemen- · Developing regional and local development and tary in building adaptive capacities. adaptation pathways to help identifying how · Creating scenarios on linkages between adaptation national and donor priorities are linked with other measures, vulnerability reduction and development sectoral priorities and situations at the local and priorities of the countries to make the investments regional level and guide prioritizing of investment by donors better integrated and therefore increase planning. their effectiveness and relevance. · Identifying sectoral impacts of climate change and · Customizing best practices and lessons learned from necessary adaptation responses across diverse sec- other countries so that they reflect on the situation tors, so actions that can create multiple benefits are of the country/region including its institutions and identified as priorities. For example actions linking available capacities. 54 referenCes Durbach, I. and Stewart, T. (2004). Integrating scenario planning and goal programming. Journal of Multi- Criteria Decision Analysis 12: 261­271. Ahiable, G. and K. A. Salam (2009). Report of Zonal Workshops, Prepared for the World Bank Participatory Holmberg, J. and Robèrt, K. H. (2000). Backcasting Development Associates Ltd., Kumasi, pp. 26. from non-overlapping sustainability principles--a framework for strategic planning. International Journal Bizikova, L., J. Robinson and S. Cohen (2007). Linking of Sustainable Development and World. Ecology 7: climate change and sustainable development at the local 291­308. level. Climate Policy, Special Issue, 7(4): 271­277. Jaeger, C. C., B. Kasemir, S. Stoll-Kleemann, D. Schibli Bizikova, L., S. Cohen, S. Burch and J. Robinson and U. Dahinden (2000). Climate change and the voice (2009). Exploring linkages between climate change and of the public Integrated Assessment 1: 339­349. sustainable development to facilitate changes on the ground. In: O'Brien K. and A. L. St. Clair (Eds.), Kasemir, B., Jaeger, C. C. and Jager, J. (2003). Citizen Shifting the Discourse: Climate Change as an Issue of Paticipation in Sustainability Assessments. In: Human Security. Cambridge University Press. In press. Kasemir,B., Jager,J., Jaeger,C.C. and Gardner, M. (Eds). Public participation in Sustainability Science. Bizikova, L., T. Dickinson and L. Pinter (2009). Cambridge University Press. pp 3­36. Opportunities for participation and learning when translating impacts of climate change into adaptations. Kerkhof, M. van de and A. J. Wieczorek (2005). Participatory Learning and Action, In press. Learning and stakeholder participation in transition processes towards sustainability: Methodological Dogbe, T. and G. Ahiable (2009a). Vulnerability considerations.Technological Forecasting and Social Assessment and Participatory Scenario Development Change, Vol 72(6), 733­747. for Costing Climate Change Adaptation. Inception report (1ST draft) for the EACC project, Accra. Kuriakose, A., L Bizikova and C. Bachofen (2009). Vulnerability assessment and adaptation to climate Dogbe, T. and G. Ahiable (2009b). Livelihoods and change - methodological approaches. World Bank vulnerability profile on the poor to climate change. Working paper, no. 116 (May), pp. 30, Washington DC. Prepared for the World Bank. Participatory Development Associates Ltd., Kumasi, pp. 59. Nakicenovic, N., Alcamo, J., Davis, G., de Vries, B., Fenhann, J., Gaffin, S., Gregory, K., Grübler, A. et al. et Dreborg, K. H. (1996), Essence of backcasting. Futures al. (2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Report of 28(9): 813­828. the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. London: d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 55 Cambridge University Press (http://www.grida.no/ Stirling, A. (2006). Analysis, participation and power: climate/ipcc/emission/index.htm). justification and closure in participatory multi-criteria analysis. Land Use Policy 23, 95­107. National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) Bangladesh (2005). Ministry of Environment and Swanson, D. and D. Rothman (2009). Manitoba Hydro Forest Government of the People's Republic of Scenario Planning Phase I Synthesis Report. Bangladesh, Final Report, Dhaka, pp. 63. Developing Scenarios for Identifying Climate Change Adaptation Strategies. IISD, Winnipeg, pp. 19. National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) Mozambique (2007). Ministry for coordination of Tansey, J., J. Carmichael, R. Van Wynsberghe, J. Environment Affairs (MICOA). Maputo, pp. 62. Robinson. (2002). The Future is not what it used to be: participatory integrated assessment in the Georgia Patel M., K. Kok and D. S. Rothman (2007). Basin. Global Environmental Change 12: 97­104. Participatory scenario construction in land use analysis: An insight into the experiences created by stakeholder UNEP (2002). Global Environment Outlook-3: Past, involvement in the Northern Mediterranean. Land Use present and future perspectives. Earthscan, London. Policy 24: 546­561. Robinson, J. (2003). Future Subjunctive: backcasting as social learning. Futures 35(8): UNEP/IISD (2005). Facilitators' briefing pack devel- 839­856. oped for the First Global and Regional Scenarios Workshop of GEO-4 held in Bangkok, UNEP and Robinson, J., Bradley M., Busby, P., Conor, D., Murray, IISD, Nairobi and Winnipeg. A., Sampson, B. and W. Soper, (2006). Climate change and sustainable development: realizing the opportunity. van de Kerkhof, M. (2006). A dialogue approach to Ambio 35, 2­9. enhance learning for sustainability--A Dutch experiment with two participatory methods in the field of climate Schröter, D., C. Polsky, and A. G. Patt (2005). Assessing change. The Integrated Assessment Journal 6(4): 7­34. vulnerabilities to the effects of global change: an eight step approach. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Volkery, A., T. Ribeiro, T. Henrichs and Y. Hoogeveen Global Change 10 (4): 573­595. (2008). Scenario Development on a European Scale. Systemic Practice and Action Research 21: 459­477. 56 appendiCes Mozambique Workshop structure poster ­ Portuguese Topographic country map a ppendix 1. l isT of v isualizaT io n s Climate change poster (temperature and precipitation) developed Social indicator maps Impact and adaptation cards The following list represents all of the visualizations Participant handout developed specifically for workshops in Ghana, Mozambique, Bangladesh and Ethiopia. Some visual- Bangladesh izations from other sources, such as maps, data and Workshop structure poster graphs etc. were used informally and in presentations, Topographic country map but these are not included here. A complete set of visu- Four regional topographic maps alizations developed for the project is submitted on a Climate change poster (temperature and precipitation) CD along with this report. Impact and adaptation cards Participant handout Ghana Workshop structure poster Ethiopia Topographic country map Workshop structure poster Four regional topographic maps Topographic country map Climate change poster (temperature and precipitation) Climate change poster (temperature and precipitation) Impact and adaptation cards Social indicator maps Participant handout Impact and adaptation cards Participant handout d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 57 a ppendix 2. example of parTiC i pa nT h a n d o uT ( ba nG l a d e s h ) 58 p s d A p p R o A c h E s f o R i d E n t i f y i n g p R o - p o o R A d A p tAt i o n d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 59 60 p s d A p p R o A c h E s f o R i d E n t i f y i n g p R o - p o o R A d A p tAt i o n d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 61 a ppendix 3. sample Wor Kshop a G e n d a (fi r sT n aTi o n a l W o rKs h o p ) 1st July 2009, Dhaka (Bangladesh) 9:45 ­ 10:30 address of Welcome and introductions context setting and Workshop objectives overview of the day and introducing psd 10:30 ­ 11:00 tea Break 11:00 ­ 11:20 review of the Current Situation presentation and discussion 11:20 ­ 12:10 Development a Vision of the Future group Work 12:10 ­ 12:30 report Back from groups and Plenary Discussion 12:30 ­ 13:30 Challenge the Vision with Boundary Conditions ­ Climate and Socioeconomic three presentations 13: 30 ­ 14:30 lunch 14:30 ­ 15:15 impacts on the Vision group Work review, identify and evaluate adaptation and Coping Options and Develop a Pathway group Work 15:15 ­ 16:00 revise Vision of the Future and identify adaptations Pathway group Work 16:00 ­ 16:15 tea 16:15 ­ 17:00 report Back from group and Plenary Discussion Reflect on the day and closing a ppendix 4. sample Wor Kshop a G e n d a (seC o n d n aTi o n a l W o rK s h o p ) 26th august 2009, Maputo (Mozambique) 8:30 ­ 9:00 Welcome and introductions Aims and objectives of the workshop in the context of the EAcc study; outline and agenda 9:00 ­ 9:45 Socio-economic trends and projections for Mozambique presentation and plenary discussion 9:45 ­ 10:30 Overview of climate change and impacts presentation and plenary discussion introducing activities for the day 10.30 ­ 10.45 Break 10:45 ­ 11:30 assessment of Climate Change impacts group Activity 11:30 ­ 12:15 identification of adaptation Options group Activity 12.15 ­ 13.15 lunch 13.15 ­ 14.15 Concept of adaptation Pathway plenary discussion Developing adaptation Pathways group Activity 14.15 ­ 15.00 group Presentations on adaptation Pathways 15.00 ­ 15.15 Break 15.15 ­ 16:00 Reviewing Adaptation pathway plenary discussion 16:00 ­ 16.30 reflecting on the day 62 p s d A p p R o A c h E s f o R i d E n t i f y i n g p R o - p o o R A d A p tAt i o n a ppendix 5. sample loCal WorK s h o p a G e n d a august, 2009, Local PSD workshop in ghana Day 1 9:00 ­ 9:30 Welcome and introductions objectives of the workshop program outline 9:30 ­ 11:00 Overview of the current development situation group discussion and presentation 11:00 ­ 11:15 Break 11:15 ­ 13.00 Developing local vision of the future group work and presentations 13:00 ­ 14:00 lunch 14:00 ­ 15:00 Challenge the vision with boundary conditions ­ climate and socio-economic presentations and group work 15:00 ­ 15:15 Break 15:30 ­ 16:15 review, identify and evaluate existing local adaptation strategies/coping options 16:15 ­ 16:30 reflect on the day comments, suggestions for next day Day 2 8:30 ­ 9:00 recap of previous day plenary 9.00 ­ 10:00 identify adaptation pathways in the zone group work 10:00 ­ 10:15 Break 10.15 ­ 11:15 group presentations and plenary discussions 11:15 ­ 12:00 evaluation of the Workshop and closing remarks comments, suggestions and thanks 12.00 lunch and departure d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 63 a ppendix 6. email updaT e prov i d e d To a l l G l o b a l T e a m s (au G u sT 2 0 0 9 ) The following text was extracted from an email distributed to all in-country teams informing them of the updates to the Phase II PSD workshop design (based on their comments and feedback regarding the success of Phase I). This email, sent 13th August 2009, preceded any support which was provided to in-country teams in advance of Phase II delivery, and served to advise all teams of the next steps in moving forward from Phase I. Dear Colleagues, We are pleased to announce the completion of Phase I of the Participatory Scenario Development (PSD) work- shops. A great many thanks to all country teams for helping to design and coordinate these workshops. We have learned a great deal from working with you and we hope that you too have found them useful and informa- tive. Thank you also for your feed back on the Phase 1 workshops. We have tried to include your comments and suggestions in our planning for the next phase. In preparing for the Phase II national-level workshops, there are a number of key issues which have been summa- rized for all country teams below. Details about specific in-country requirements will be discussed further during a conference call with individual in-country team members over the coming days (see Item 5 below). 1 Dates for We have received the following dates for each Phase II workshop. Please review the dates below Phase II and confirm any changes necessary. Also, please confirm whether a one-day, or a one-and-a-half Workshops day workshop is planned: 1. Mozambique = Wednesday, 26th August, 2009 (1 day) 2. Ghana = Wednesday and Thursday, 2nd and 3rd September, 2009 (1.5 day) 3. Bangladesh = TO BE CONFIRMED (between 28th­30th September, 2009) (1 day??) 2 Proposed Phase I participants for the national workshops included stakeholders from government, Participants research, and non-government. Although similar representation is desirable for Phase II work- for Phase II shops, and some overlap of participants would be useful for continuity between workshops, the Workshops majority of Phase II workshop participants should be different than those invited for Phase I workshops. In addition, increased representation from various livelihood groups and those repre- senting the interests of vulnerable groups (i.e. women's groups, agriculture & livestock, forestry and fisheries, etc) would help ensure results are best suited to include 'pro-poor' adaptation pathways. Other suggested participants for consideration might include: · Some participants from the Phase I local-level workshops to ensure continuity across local and national level adaptation priorities. · Female participants in general, as well as representatives from women's groups or groups working on gender issues in-country. 3 Revised Based on the excellent feedback received regarding the design and the results of the Phase I Phase II workshops, we have proposed a few revisions to the PSD workshops for the Phase II national- Workshop level workshops. Most notably is a modified activity on "Adaptation Pathways" to ensure greater Design understanding of the relationship between different adaptation options over the short-, medium-, and long-term. Please see the attached for updated agendas. In addition, we are also designing a large poster of the 8-step hexagon model so that participants and facilitators alike may follow along with the progression and objectives of each workshop activity. 64 p s d A p p R o A c h E s f o R i d E n t i f y i n g p R o - p o o R A d A p tAt i o n 4 Participants In response to comments related to the need to have a more detailed and user-friendly informa- Pack tion pack for participants, we will be designing and developing a new Participants Pack which will include improved visualizations. Additional content will include background information on the EACC Project, workshop objectives and format (hexagon model), examples of key outputs, maps of projected changes in temperature & precipitation, photos of key livelihood activities, etc. For the purposes of designing this Participants Pack, it is important that each country define which types of visuals they would like to showcase, and which they feel the intended audience will most benefit from. As a result, country teams will be asked for specific maps and photos they would like to include in their Participants Pack. This will be discussed further in the conference call with country teams (see below) so please be prepared with suggestions and ideas. 5 Conference In order to address country-specific needs and clarify any outstanding questions, we would like Call with to propose to arrange a conference call with each country team. With dates for Mozambique Country and Ghana workshops quickly approaching, we would like to ask both the Mozambique and Teams Ghana teams to confirm a date and time with us which is no later than next Tuesday, August 18th. For the Bangladesh team, please confirm an appropriate time which falls no later than Thursday, September 10th, 2009. Please follow up directly with the workshop lead of your country workshop regarding a suit- able time for a phone conference. 6 ESSA/IISD We have tried to ensure some degree of consistency of personnel between Phase 1 and 2, so at personnel least one team member will be present from the previous workshop. attending workshops Proposed personnel are as follows: Mozambique 1. Livia Bizikova (Lead) lbizikova@iisd.ca 2. Samantha Boardley Ghana 1. Livia Bizikova (Lead) lbizikova@iisd.ca 2. Samantha Boardley Bangladesh 1. Samantha Boardley (Lead) sboardley@essa.com 2. to be determined Many thanks again for all of your efforts to date as we look forward to working with you again throughout the design and completion of Phase II. Please confirm with us the dates and length of your respective Phase II national workshops, as well as a proposed date and time for a conference call, as soon as possible. Best regards, Simon Mead ESSA/IISD Project Coordinator Simon Mead Sr. Environmental Specialist, ESSA Technologies Ltd. Suite 206, 411 Roosevelt Avenue, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, K2A 3X9 Tel: (613) 798-2586; Fax: (613) 798-5331; email: smead@essa.com; Web: www.essa.com d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 65 a ppendix 7. ex Cerp T s from speakers, and cultural norms related to break and lunch Commen Tary provided To supp o rT times, as well as time required to complete group activi- psd Wor Kshops in eThiopia ties. I would suggest you not feel bound by the times indicated on the Facilitator's Agenda used for The following text was extracted from various emails to Bangladesh as this was designed based on consultation the PSD Facilitation Team in Ethiopia (9th October, with the in-country team. 2009), in advance of a national-level PSD workshop. Members from the Ethiopia Facilitation Team attended As for the optional summary of the 3 local PSD work- a 2-day training on PSD in Accra (Ghana) in early- shops, there are a few reasons you might choose to pres- June. However, as improvements were made to the ent on this topic, however ultimately this decision will workshop methodology between Phase I ( June ­ July) be up to you and your team: and Phase II (August ­ October), the ESSA/IISD Consortium was asked to provide distance support to 1. Accountability to local workshop participants ­ the Ethiopia team, advising them of the updates and depending on how/if next steps were proposed to coaching them through the improvements. The ESSA/ local workshop participants re: how their input IISD Consortium and the Ethiopia Facilitation Team would feed into the larger country-study, a presen- worked collaboratively on design and visualization tation on local level results improves the account- material before the national PSD workshop which took ability of the project to its local stakeholders in place on the 16th October, 2009. ensuring their inputs/comments/voices are heard at the national table on the 16th; On the issue of customizing the PSD approach to fit 2. Accountability to national workshop participants ­ in-country needs... depending how familiar participants are with the [purpose of your] study, ... participants might be What is most important is that the objectives of each interested to hear an update on progress, or key session are met. The means by which the objectives are results, to date. met are flexible and subject to the country-context. Feel 3. As entry point to highlight the needs of vulnerable free to apply any of the ideas below directly, alternatively, groups, and those most vulnerable to climate use the ideas to formulate activities/discussion questions change--depending on how you have targeted the that you think will best meet the objectives of the day. invited participants for the national level workshop, some participants might be farther removed from Question working directly with the needs of vulnerable groups. For example, high level officials from envi- Time could be a challenging issue. In [previous work- ronmental line ministries are responsible for shops] they managed it in 2 days time. The agenda programs which meet the broader targets of adapta- packs in lots of items. In our case, two presentations are tion within the country. Similarly, others might be also expected. One is from [a livelihoods] study; the more familiar with the physical impacts of climate other one (optional) is a summary on the three local change (i.e. modelers), rather than the intricacies of PSD [workshops]. The latter you suggested [presenting] the social consequences. By presenting a brief intro along with the impacts and adaptation discussions in to some of the key results from your fieldwork/local the form of cards. PSD workshops, this could help to ensure the focus of the day remains true to workshop objectives and Answer vulnerable groups (assuming your local PSD work- shop sites were selected based on the areas relative The agenda of a PSD workshop is certainly ambitious social vulnerability to CC). given a 1-day workshop. Since your attendance in [a 4. To set-up questions for discussion during final previous workshop], we have tried to refine the work- plenary in the afternoon--given a summary of key shop design to allow for customization by in-country outcomes from local PSD workshops, the facilitator teams including relevant presentations, key note can use some of these key results to generate 66 p s d A p p R o A c h E s f o R i d E n t i f y i n g p R o - p o o R A d A p tAt i o n discussion around the national level adaptation corresponded with prayer time, and also ensured that in pathway(s) generated in the morning. For example, the event that some participants left after lunch [as was once groups have selected their prioritized adaptation expected], we would still have some idea of what the interventions and a proposed pathway is designed regional adaptation priorities were throughout the using the priorities from all groups, one discussion country. The final agenda for Ethiopia should account question could be, "how does the proposed pathway for energy levels throughout the day, participants incen- address the needs of vulnerable groups?" or "what is tive to stay following lunch, desired balance between missing to ensure these needs are met?". As a facilita- presentations, group work, group presentations back to tor, if you notice that a key result/message from your plenary, and plenary discussion. local workshops has not been prioritized in the national pathway, this could provide an example by On the Adaptation Pathways Review session and forming which you can generate discussion, "community X new groups for the 4 assigned tasks... also noted the need for reforestation to help stabilize the soil and reduce erosion in the area, but the pasto- Forming new groups to discuss synergies, trade-offs, ralists in community X are concerned about losing preconditions and vulnerable groups allows for more grazing land..." In this case, the question to the interaction and networking with other workshop partic- national level stakeholders would be how to mini- ipants outside those that have worked through the mize/mitigate this negative trade-off so that we help morning activities together. This session can be maintain [all] livelihood [alternatives]? conducted in one of two ways: On the issue of table-groups using smaller maps to identify 1. In plenary with strategic moderation ­ this would vulnerable areas... mean the lead Facilitator (will this be you?) leads the group through a deeper analysis of the proposed The [smaller] maps can refer to either national maps or priority interventions over the short-, medium-, and area maps, depending on how you have decided to divide long-term. Using this model, the Facilitator will groups for the national level workshop. The important have to internalize and evaluate how the groups are thing is that the maps are only used as a tool to help prioritizing adaptation interventions while they are groups further identify and refine areas of particular still presenting. The trick here would be to extract vulnerability within the region/country. There was a at least one synergy between group priorities, one concern in Bangladesh that by providing groups with the trade-off, a key result from your local workshops maps, this would bias participants towards only thinking that is missing, and turn such observations into about vulnerability as a function of physical exposure, as questions for participants (without biasing the opposed to additional considerations of sensitivity and discussion with only your own observation!). This adaptive capacity. As a result, the Bangladesh team chose can be most certainly a very effective way to criti- not to actively use the maps, (although they had them cally reflect on the proposed national priorities, available within the group, no group used them). however takes some rather experienced and strate- gic moderation skills. On the design of impact cards... 2. By group discussions ­ the trick here would be to task groups (different or the same) with one or The blank space provided on the cards is meant to two manageable questions that will add further allow for any sort of elaboration participants would like depth to the proposed pathway. You can choose to to give related to either the nature of the impact, or the divide groups by key sectors/themes (i.e. agricul- expected severity of the impact. ture, health, etc), by vulnerable groups (i.e. identify 3-5 vulnerable groups from the list generated On customizing the agenda to suit cultural norms... earlier in the morning, delegate each group as representatives from a particular vulnerable group Use your discretion here as to what timing will work (similar to a role playing activity), and ask groups best for Ethiopia. In Bangladesh, [a] later lunch to identify trade-offs, synergies, and pre-conditions d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 67 from their perspective of a particularly vulnerable question about what softer, supporting interventions person. are also therefore required?). Ultimately, the objective of this session is to get a On the introduction of discussing preconditions (Adaptation deeper, fuller, richer, discussion around the proposed Pathways Review session) ... adaptation priorities. The means by which this objective can be met is entirely up to the in-country team. The idea of identifying pre-conditions emerged as a means to further analyze and refine the interventions On examples of synergies between adaptation options (from that were being prioritized [on the master pathways Adaptation Pathways Review session) ... matrix]. Particularly as many interventions are not new, and rather a matter of up-scaling, or improving avail- For example, perhaps one group prioritized `improved ability and/or accessibility to a particular intervention, it crop varieties', while another group prioritized irriga- is important to identify what types of institutional tion systems, and another improved rural extension prerequisites are necessary to facilitate this availability/ services. One proposed synergy between these inter- accessibility. ventions might be related to improved food security. If this type of synergy exists across the country, what On the issue of omitting activities related to the enabling participants might be proposing is that food security environment from Phase II design... measures are an important investment not only for overall development in Ethiopia, but also for adapta- This was seen as too much of a planning exercise rather tion to climate change (particularly given the increased than a pathway exercise. If this is to be one of the frequency and intensity of drought which is expected). objectives of the workshop (identify pathway(s) and Alternatively, one might observe that many of the appropriate enabling environment) and you have the interventions include infrastructural developments correct participants to be able to identify such things (dams, dykes, irrigation systems)--this might be (i.e. actors, institutions), this might be best completed in another synergy across groups and therefore a national the final plenary discussion of the day in response to a priority (although I would be tempted to ask a question on `what next?' or `where do we go from here?'. The World Bank Group 1818 H Street, NW Washington, D.C. 20433 USA Tel: 202-473-1000 Fax: 202-477-6391 Internet: www.worldbank.org/climatechange