For more information, visit http://www.worldbank.org/prospects April 1, 2016 Taking Stock  Pace of U.S. job growth remained robust in March, but the unemployment rate rose. U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 215,000 in March, more than expected, following February’s 245,000 gain (Figure 1). Over the past three months, job gains have averaged 209,000 per month. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate edged up 0.1 percentage point to 5 percent, and the participation rate rose to 63.0 percent from 62.9 percent in February. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3 percent (m/m), bringing the year-on-year increase to 2.3 percent from 2.2 percent in February. The March jobs report followed a speech by the U.S. Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, in which she emphasized that the Federal Reserve anticipates only gradual increases in interest rates in the coming years, noting the need for the Fed to proceed cautiously given the risks that global economic and financial uncertainty poses to the U.S. economy.  Euro Area economic confidence declined, inflation remained below zero. Euro Area economic sentiment index fell for a third consecutive month in March to its lowest level since February 2015. The larger-than-expected decline in March points to a weaker GDP growth in the first quarter of 2016. Meanwhile, flash estimates from Eurostat showed that consumer prices fell 0.1 percent (y/y) in March, in line with expectations, following a 0.2 percent (y/y) decline in February. Euro Area headline inflation remained negative for a second month in a row as energy prices fell. Core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, rose to 1 percent, more than expected, from 0.8 percent in February.  Japan’s retail sales remained weak, manufacturing activity contracted. Japan’s retail sales advanced 0.5 percent (y/y) in February, well below expectations of a 1.6 percent increase, following a 0.2 percent (y/y) decline in January. Meanwhile, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 49.1 in March on a seas onally adjusted basis, unchanged from preliminary estimates and below February’s final reading of 50.1, with the sub-index for new export orders declining the most (a reading below 50 indicates a contraction in the sector).  Emerging-market currencies posted record gain in March. Developing-country currencies posted their strongest monthly gain on record in March. An index tracking 20 emerging-market exchange rates against the U.S. dollar rose by a record-high 6.3 percent in March, led by the Russian ruble (Figure 2). This gain came as a rebound in commodity prices, the U.S Federal Reserve’s embrace of a gradual approach to its rate-hiking cycle, and continued monetary policy easing in Europe and Japan fueled investors’ appetite for risk assets.  South Africa manufacturing PMI improved unexpectedly in March . The seasonally adjusted Barclays Purchasing Managers’ Index for South Africa rose to 50.5 in March, more than expected, moving above the 50 -mark for the first time since July 2015. The improvement in the PMI was broad-based, with the new sales orders index posting a strong increase from February. Figure 1 U.S. economy created 215,000 nonfarm jobs in March. Figure 2 Emerging-market currencies rallied in March. U.S. Nonfarm payrolls Index of 20 emerging-market exchange rates versus the dollar Thousands Percent, month-over-month 350 8 6.3% advance 5.5% gain in Feb. 1998 in Mar. 2016 300 6 (previous record) 4 250 2 200 0 150 -2 -4 100 US Employees on Nonfarm Payrolls Total MoM Net -6 50 Change SA -8 3-month simple moving average 0 -10 Feb-99 Jul-00 Dec-01 Oct-04 Mar-06 Jan-09 Jun-10 Nov-11 Feb-16 Apr-96 May-03 Aug-07 Apr-13 Sep-97 Sep-14 Dec-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Apr-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Dec-15 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Source: Bloomberg. Produced by DECPG. Number 299 | April 1, 2016 Weekly Insight: What do the data say about exchange rate regimes and capital flow measures? Among emerging market economies, floating exchange rate regimes are more common than soft pegs or tightly pegged exchange rates. In frontier markets, pegged exchange rates are the most common regime. Most emerging, frontier, and other developing countries have Partially Open capital accounts, with occasional use of capital controls. Actual exchange rate movements can be used to classify exchange rate regimes into pegs, non-pegs, and soft pegs. Among emerging market economies, floating exchange rate regimes are more common than soft pegs or tightly pegged exchange rates. These observations span emerging market economies that have had floating regimes during all or almost all of the 1995-2013 period and those that have had tight pegs during all the period. The exchange rate regime choice of frontier market economies is the mirror image of that of emerging market economies, with the highest number of observations being pegs and the fewest number being floats. Relatively few frontier markets have had floating regimes for most of the period, while several countries have had their pegs for all 19 years of the period. Other middle and low-income countries have an even distribution across the three regime categories, with a few countries exhibiting floating regimes for most of the period and some countries with tight pegs for all 19 years. Countries can be grouped in one of three categories with respect to their use of capital flow measures . The first category is “Open,” for countries that almost never use capital controls. The second category is “Closed,” for countries that have capital controls in the vast majority of asset categories and for the vast majority of years. The third category is “Partially Open,” for countries that make occasional use of capital controls. Among emerging and developing countries, the most common classification is Partially Open. In comparison, advanced countries are far less likely to use capital controls than countries in other groups, and none do so in a persistent and systematic way. Trade openness and financial development vary depending on exchange rate regimes and the use of capital flow measures. Pegged exchange rate regimes appear to be associated with greater trade openness than flexible regimes, in both the full sample as well as in the sample comprised of emerging and developing economies. That is the frequency distributions of trade-to-GDP ratios for economies with mostly pegged currencies lie to the right of those for more flexible currencies (Figure 3). In addition, countries that use capital controls from time to time appear to trade somewhat less than countries that have either full or no capital controls. Open countries appear more likely to be financially developed (have larger financial sectors as a share of GDP) than Partially Open and Closed countries. Confining the sample to emerging and developing economies, there is no apparent evidence of higher levels of financial development in Open countries. That is frequency distributions show no discernible difference in the skewness of the Open group (Figure 4). Figure 3 Pegged exchange rate regimes appear to be associated Figure 4 There is no apparent evidence of higher levels of financial with greater trade openness than flexible regimes. development in Open countries in the emerging and developing country sample. Trade by proportion of years with pegged exchange rates, full Credit by capital control category, emerging and developing sample country sample. Peg < 50% of years (No. of countries = 56) Open (No. of countries = 14) Peg > 50% of years (No. of countries = 33) Partially Open (No. of countries = 39) 0.7 Closed (No. of countries = 13) 1.0 Frequency of countries Frequency of countries 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0 0 50 100 150 200 0 50 100 150 200 Trade in percent of GDP Domestic credit in percent of GDP Source: World Bank. Source: World Bank. Note: The figure presents kernel frequency distributions of trade relative Note: The figure presents kernel frequency distributions of domestic to GDP for countries that have pegged exchange rates for less than half credit relative to GDP for Closed countries (yellow line), Partially Open the years in the sample (blue line) and for those that have pegged countries (red line) and Open countries (blue line). exchange rates for more than half the years in the sample (red line). Produced by DECPG Number 299 | April 1, 2016 Major Data Releases Fri, 25 Mar - Thu, 31 Mar 2016 Fri, 01 Apr - Thu, 7 Apr 2016 Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous Germany 3/30/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) MAR 0.3 % 0.2% 0.0 % Sweden 4/5/16 Industrial Production (Y-o-Y) FEB 4.6 % Turkey 3/31/16 GDP (Y-o-Y) Q4 4.1 % 3.5% 5.4 % Germany 4/6/16 Industrial Production (Y-o-Y) FEB 1.0 % Denmark 3/31/16 GDP (Y-o-Y) Q4 0.5 % 0.6 % 0.5 % Netherland 4/7/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) MAR 0.6 % UK 3/31/16 GDP (Y-o-Y) Q4 2.1 % 1.9 % 1.9 % Slovakia 4/7/16 GDP (Y-o-Y) Q1 F 4.0 % China 3/31/16 PMI Manufacturing MAR 49.7 48.8 48.0 Spain 4/7/16 Industrial Production (Y-o-Y) FEB 3.5 % UK 4/1/16 PMI Manufacturing MAR 51.0 51.2 50.8 Mexico 4/7/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) MAR 2.87 % Economic Developments indicators expressed as %ch y/y, except Industrial Production quarterly figures are %ch q/q, annualized 2014 2015 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Industrial Production, S.A. World 2.9 2.5 3.3 2.2 2.4 4.0 1.7 1.2 1.8 1.8 3.3 3.0 2.8 3.4 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.0 2.6 2.1 2.6 1.8 2.2 1.7 0.9 1.8 - High Income Countries 0.6 0.3 2.1 0.4 0.5 3.2 2.0 -1.5 0.6 0.0 1.6 1.7 1.3 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.1 0.8 1.3 0.9 1.4 0.9 1.1 0.6 -0.9 0.5 - Developing Countries 6.8 5.9 5.2 4.9 5.2 5.2 1.1 5.1 3.5 4.2 6.0 5.0 5.0 5.4 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 4.6 3.7 4.3 3.2 3.8 3.3 3.3 3.6 - East Asia and Pacific 9.3 9.0 7.5 7.6 6.5 8.3 2.3 6.5 5.0 8.1 7.5 7.0 6.4 7.3 6.5 6.1 5.8 5.9 5.5 6.2 5.6 5.8 5.1 5.3 5.8 5.3 5.5 5.6 East Asia x. China 6.0 5.6 2.9 6.9 4.4 7.7 -1.2 2.7 4.1 8.1 5.4 4.0 2.8 4.8 4.3 2.4 6.6 5.1 1.8 3.1 4.0 3.8 2.0 3.7 4.2 2.2 5.6 - Europe and Central Asia 9.7 2.2 3.4 0.3 1.7 -0.4 1.8 5.7 3.1 6.2 2.8 2.9 2.0 1.5 -0.8 1.2 2.1 1.4 1.4 3.7 0.9 4.0 2.7 3.6 3.9 5.0 4.4 - Latin America and Caribbean -0.3 1.2 -0.3 -3.3 -0.1 -1.5 -5.2 -4.0 -4.8 -6.5 -0.9 -0.4 -1.5 -1.0 -2.3 -2.6 -2.7 -2.9 -3.2 -2.0 -3.5 -3.7 -4.5 -5.1 -5.5 -4.8 -3.8 - Middle East and N. Africa 6.0 -7.6 -1.5 -0.2 26.8 0.3 -16.1 11.5 8.7 - 17.6 10.7 13.2 7.9 -0.5 -0.5 5.9 4.6 7.0 1.8 1.4 1.4 -1.3 1.5 0.0 - - - South Asia 1.1 1.8 2.6 4.9 1.0 -1.6 12.1 8.1 2.5 -9.5 3.5 -1.5 5.9 4.4 3.4 5.1 3.4 4.3 4.3 5.6 4.2 7.7 3.6 10.3 -1.4 0.5 0.5 - Sub-Saharan Africa 2.7 0.8 -0.1 2.2 -6.6 9.9 -1.4 -4.9 5.9 -2.1 5.9 1.5 -0.6 0.6 -1.1 0.0 3.8 -1.7 -0.3 -0.8 5.5 0.8 0.6 -0.8 -1.4 0.1 -0.1 - Inflation, S.A. 1 High Income Countries 2.3 2.1 2.8 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.5 5.0 7.3 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.1 3.5 3.9 4.4 5.0 5.5 6.4 7.4 8.1 7.9 7.4 Developing Countries 5.3 5.1 4.5 4.8 4.6 4.1 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0 4.1 3.8 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.3 East Asia and Pacific 2.9 3.0 2.6 2.9 2.5 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.2 1.8 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.5 Europe and Central Asia 9.9 7.2 7.5 7.7 8.0 7.7 6.7 6.4 5.8 7.2 7.9 8.0 8.0 7.2 6.6 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.7 5.9 5.5 5.7 6.2 6.5 7.2 7.9 8.5 8.0 Latin America and Caribbean 4.8 5.1 5.1 4.9 5.3 5.3 5.8 6.4 6.9 7.5 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.4 5.7 6.2 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.2 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.0 Middle East and N. Africa 6.6 5.3 5.0 3.9 5.7 5.8 5.1 5.8 4.5 4.9 5.8 6.2 5.8 5.4 4.7 5.2 5.5 5.5 6.4 5.5 4.4 4.3 5.0 4.6 4.7 5.3 5.1 - South Asia 9.2 9.4 6.6 7.8 6.7 4.2 5.0 4.8 3.7 5.0 5.8 4.8 3.5 4.4 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.6 4.8 5.1 3.5 3.6 4.1 4.7 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.1 Sub-Saharan Africa 9.0 6.6 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.2 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.6 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.4 6.5 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.3 7.5 8.0 8.7 10.0 1 Inflation is calculated as the GDP-weighted average for all groups. Trade and Finance indicators expressed as %ch y/y, except International Reserves are %ch p/p and trade quarterly figures are %ch q/q, annualized 2014 2015 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Exports, Nominal, US$, S.A. World 0.1 2.0 1.1 3.8 0.7 -15.2 -25.0 -3.8 -5.8 -7.6 2.7 -1.1 -4.1 -3.7 -10.2 -6.3 -12.6 -13.2 -13.1 -7.8 -13.2 -13.4 -12.2 -12.5 -10.9 -9.5 -10.9 - High Income Countries -1.5 1.5 0.7 1.0 -3.4 -18.1 -25.9 -2.7 -7.5 -8.7 0.8 -3.1 -5.9 -5.2 -11.6 -12.4 -12.7 -14.7 -14.9 -9.5 -14.2 -14.8 -13.0 -13.1 -11.0 -10.8 -10.4 - Developing Countries 4.1 3.2 1.9 10.4 10.6 -8.8 -23.2 -6.2 -2.0 -5.3 7.0 3.4 -0.1 -0.2 -7.1 8.6 -12.4 -9.8 -9.1 -4.0 -10.8 -10.2 -10.4 -11.3 -10.8 -6.6 -11.8 -14.9 East Asia and Pacific 6.2 6.5 4.6 19.2 17.1 -1.7 -14.8 -11.1 3.0 -2.0 12.5 7.8 3.2 5.2 -3.5 29.7 -11.5 -6.4 -4.3 0.7 -7.7 -6.2 -5.4 -7.9 -7.6 -3.9 -11.7 -19.8 Europe and Central Asia 3.2 -0.3 -1.5 -8.2 -11.5 -27.8 -16.2 -15.8 -9.8 -15.7 -2.4 -6.1 -10.7 -14.2 -13.6 -16.6 -18.6 -16.7 -21.5 -15.9 -21.2 -16.7 -14.9 -14.5 -15.6 -13.1 -17.4 - Latin America and Caribbean 2.4 0.6 0.0 6.9 1.5 -22.3 -17.0 -4.8 -9.8 -8.9 1.1 -3.6 -7.5 -6.2 -7.8 -12.3 -5.5 -11.9 -14.5 -7.1 -11.2 -16.0 -14.1 -10.8 -10.9 -9.0 -12.1 -4.2 Middle East and N. Africa 5.0 -11.1 -7.4 -1.5 26.0 -11.2 -59.8 - - - 2.0 16.5 -3.4 -10.1 -15.3 -21.8 -18.1 -11.1 - - - - - - - - - - South Asia -1.8 6.2 2.6 6.1 2.9 -2.4 -43.1 -1.4 -10.0 -5.7 0.0 -6.2 9.3 -0.9 -7.2 -10.8 -17.2 -13.0 -16.7 -10.2 -10.2 -15.7 -22.4 -15.0 -22.9 -12.2 -11.3 -3.3 Sub-Saharan Africa -2.4 -1.1 -5.5 -13.9 0.3 -20.1 -52.7 10.4 -20.9 - -2.0 -7.6 -7.5 -8.9 -25.2 -28.7 -18.8 -23.3 -15.41 -19.8 -23.2 -21.2 -28.2 - - - - - Imports, Nominal, US$, S.A. World 0.6 1.6 1.2 -2.8 -1.1 -15.5 -27.7 -4.3 -4.1 -7.8 3.8 -2.2 -4.2 -3.6 -13.0 -12.9 -11.4 -14.2 -15.2 -9.0 -13.0 -12.4 -15.1 -13.1 -10.3 -11.3 -11.8 - High Income Countries -1.0 0.5 1.8 -0.7 -4.3 -17.5 -26.2 -3.7 -3.2 -8.2 2.3 -3.4 -5.3 -4.0 -12.9 -13.0 -12.4 -14.9 -15.2 -10.2 -14.5 -11.8 -13.3 -11.8 -9.4 -11.3 -10.1 - Developing Countries 4.9 4.1 -0.1 -7.5 6.9 -10.6 -31.1 -5.8 -6.6 -6.7 7.2 0.7 -1.7 -2.5 -13.1 -12.7 -9.0 -12.5 -15.4 -6.0 -9.3 -13.8 -19.3 -16.3 -12.2 -11.2 -16.0 -9.9 East Asia and Pacific 5.6 6.1 -0.4 -14.5 8.2 -12.5 -34.2 -2.6 -4.2 -2.7 6.6 2.4 -5.7 -4.3 -16.7 -17.0 -9.5 -14.0 -15.8 -5.3 -9.0 -14.2 -19.6 -18.1 -8.6 -9.1 -16.1 -10.7 Europe and Central Asia 0.7 2.5 -6.2 -7.3 -9.1 -10.8 -26.4 -19.3 -16.3 -4.1 -5.4 -8.3 -9.5 -10.5 -15.1 -13.5 -12.5 -17.4 -18.4 -14.3 -14.9 -17.7 -22.4 -13.8 -19.2 -17.7 -17.7 - Latin America and Caribbean 3.8 3.8 1.7 1.3 4.1 -7.5 -15.9 -16.6 -5.9 -15.7 8.8 -3.1 2.5 4.3 -6.6 -7.4 -0.3 -10.5 -14.2 -3.3 -9.7 -11.9 -13.2 -13.0 -11.2 -16.6 -17.1 -9.3 Middle East and N. Africa 10.8 4.0 1.5 -7.5 11.3 -17.6 -22.1 - - - 4.8 -1.5 -4.4 -2.2 -11.0 -7.0 -11.3 -7.7 - - - - - - - - - - South Asia 4.0 -3.7 1.1 1.7 26.5 -9.0 -48.4 10.7 -0.7 -14.7 23.2 6.6 21.3 -1.5 -11.1 -11.5 -12.8 -7.5 -12.1 -10.3 -9.3 -11.3 -24.0 -18.6 -25.6 -3.6 -7.8 -4.4 Sub-Saharan Africa 3.8 5.9 5.0 17.7 -2.1 3.1 -26.4 - - - 9.0 4.5 3.1 7.8 -1.8 1.9 -9.9 -10.7 - - - - - - - - - - International Reserves, US$ High Income Countries 9.2 3.2 -1.9 0.7 -1.9 -1.5 -0.4 0.4 0.0 -1.6 -1.4 -0.7 0.1 -0.8 0.3 -0.1 -0.6 0.8 -0.3 -0.1 -0.6 0.2 0.4 -0.5 -1.2 0.2 0.2 -0.1 Developing Countries 5.5 8.7 -0.2 1.5 -1.9 -1.7 -2.5 -0.1 -4.0 -3.5 -1.7 -0.7 -0.2 -0.8 -0.7 -0.2 -1.6 0.7 -0.6 -0.2 -1.0 -1.8 -1.3 0.3 -2.0 -1.8 -2.1 -0.1 East Asia and Pacific 4.5 12.2 0.2 1.2 -2.5 -1.4 -2.8 -0.8 -4.9 -4.4 -2.1 -0.8 -0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.2 -1.9 0.6 -0.9 -0.4 -1.3 -2.4 -1.2 0.4 -2.3 -2.6 -2.7 -0.3 Europe and Central Asia 11.4 3.5 -8.2 4.2 -0.5 -7.2 -6.2 1.0 1.3 -4.4 -1.4 -1.5 -1.1 -4.7 -1.7 -2.8 -1.9 0.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 -0.8 0.0 -1.5 -3.0 -0.7 1.7 Latin America and Caribbean 9.9 1.8 3.6 3.3 1.5 -1.8 -0.1 0.7 -3.2 -1.3 0.2 -0.1 0.4 -2.2 0.4 -0.6 0.0 0.7 -0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.8 -2.0 -0.8 -1.3 0.8 -0.2 -0.1 Middle East and N. Africa 5.9 3.0 -10.2 -2.2 -3.8 -2.8 -6.0 1.6 - - -2.3 -0.3 0.3 -2.9 -3.3 -0.4 -2.3 1.7 -0.64 0.2 - - - - - - - - South Asia 0.4 -0.2 11.3 5.6 -0.6 2.1 5.9 4.7 -0.8 0.9 -1.4 0.5 -0.3 1.9 1.8 3.2 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.5 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.9 -0.4 0.7 -0.9 -0.3 Produced by DECPG (Anh Mai Bui). Number 299 | April 1, 2016 Financial Markets 1 2015 2016 2016 MRV 2014 2015 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Interest rates and LIBOR (%) U.S. Fed Funds Effective 0.09 0.13 0.14 0.16 - 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.15 0.14 0.12 0.12 0.24 0.36 0.37 - 0.37 ECB repo 0.16 0.05 0.05 0.05 - 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 - 0.00 US$ LIBOR 3-months 0.23 0.32 0.31 0.41 - 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.32 0.33 0.32 0.37 0.54 0.62 0.62 - 0.63 EURIBOR 3-months 0.06 -0.02 -0.03 -0.09 - 0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.04 -0.05 -0.09 -0.13 -0.15 -0.18 - -0.24 US 10-yr Treasury yield 2.53 2.12 2.20 2.18 1.92 1.92 2.19 2.35 2.32 2.14 2.14 2.04 2.26 2.23 2.11 1.77 1.88 1.81 German Bund, 10 yr 1.24 0.54 0.70 0.56 0.32 0.16 0.58 0.83 0.76 0.66 0.68 0.55 0.55 0.59 0.51 0.23 0.21 0.14 Spreads (basis points) JP Morgan Emerging Markets 330 424 423 431 - 388 369 384 397 397 442 437 413 442 485 507 - 434 Asia 206 230 233 245 - 206 195 203 212 212 250 246 235 253 268 282 - 236 Europe 287 346 345 311 - 350 327 330 328 328 347 332 294 308 338 359 - 314 Latin America & Caribbean 407 556 560 577 - 488 471 504 527 527 585 582 553 595 662 687 - 576 Middle East 388 469 447 506 - 441 409 410 420 420 479 502 503 512 542 580 - 538 Africa 323 445 425 509 - 361 345 358 374 374 472 490 482 555 644 661 - 551 Stock Indices (end of period) 2 Global (MSCI) 417 399 382 399 - 436 435 424 427 403 382 411 407 399 375 372 - 395 High-Income ($ Index) 1710 1663 1582 1663 - 1778 1779 1736 1766 1659 1582 1706 1694 1663 1562 1547 - 1636 United States (S&P-500) 2059 2044 1920 2044 - 2086 2107 2063 2104 1992 1920 2079 2080 2044 1940 1932 - 2055 Euro Area (S&P-350$) 1401 1474 1405 1474 - 1618 1630 1552 1614 1478 1405 1523 1558 1474 1381 1347 - 1358 Japan (Nikkei-225) 16292 16292 17388 0 - 19520 20563 20236 20585 18812 17388 19083 19921 0 17518 15989 - 17104 Developing Markets (MSCI) 956 794 792 794 - 1048 1004 972 902 882 792 848 814 794 742 740 - 815 EM Asia 457 404 391 404 - 514 499 475 440 433 391 422 408 404 374 369 - 401 EM Europe 297 244 259 244 - 338 320 311 293 285 259 273 263 244 237 241 - 268 EM Europe & Middle East 257 211 226 211 - 286 271 266 253 246 226 235 222 211 202 208 - 227 EM Latin America & Caribbean 2728 1830 1895 1830 - 2693 2496 2517 2305 2206 1895 2007 1919 1830 1744 1804 - 2132 Exchange Rates (LCU / USD) High Income Euro Area 0.75 0.90 0.90 0.91 - 0.92 0.90 0.9 0.91 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.90 - 0.88 Japan 105.89 121.00 122.06 121.41 - 119.53 120.87 123.7 123.39 122.71 120.10 120.01 122.61 121.62 118.37 114.44 - 112.53 Developing Brazil 2.35 3.33 3.55 3.84 - 3.04 3.06 3.1 3.23 3.53 3.89 3.88 3.78 3.87 4.06 3.97 - 3.64 China 6.16 6.29 6.31 6.39 - 6.20 6.20 6.2 6.21 6.34 6.38 6.35 6.37 6.45 6.57 6.55 - 6.51 Egypt 7.08 7.70 7.82 7.88 - 7.60 7.62 7.6 7.81 7.83 7.83 7.91 7.91 7.83 7.83 7.82 - 8.88 India 61.03 64.14 64.97 65.91 - 62.69 63.76 63.8 63.65 65.09 66.16 65.04 66.15 66.54 67.31 68.22 - 66.54 Russia 38.58 61.34 63.62 66.17 - 52.82 50.65 54.6 57.53 66.23 67.10 63.31 65.01 70.19 77.36 77.23 - 68.09 South Africa 10.85 12.77 13.03 14.22 - 11.99 11.97 12.3 12.46 12.94 13.67 13.48 14.14 15.04 16.30 15.79 - 15.22 Memo: USA nominal effective rate102.16 114.64 116.18 118.04 - 112.71 112.00 112.8 114.55 116.59 117.40 116.41 118.32 119.40 121.77 120.67 - 117.83 1 MRV = Most Recent Value. 2 MSCI Indices for Asia, Africa, and Europe and C. Asia, for 2008 are calculated from February-December, due to data availability. 3 Change expressed in levels for interest rates and spreads; percent change for stock market and exchange rates. Commodity Prices 2015 2016 2016 MRV 2014 2015 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 1 Oil price, $/b, nominal 96 51 48 42 33 57 63 61 54 45 46 47 43 37 30 31 37 38 Non - Oil Index 2 75 62 60 61 62 64 65 63 63 59 58 59 56 56 54 56 - 59 3 Metals and Minerals Index 88 68 65 60 58 73 76 72 67 64 65 64 59 57 56 59 60 60 Baltic Dry Index 4 1103 711 975 627 361 591 596 699 975 1061 889 790 582 510 391 307 384 406 1 Simple average of Brent, Dubai and WTI. 2 Base Date = Jan 3, 2011 due to data availability. The Index component combination in the Weekly tables differs from that of 3 Base Date = Jan 4, 2010 due to data availability. The Index component combination in the Weekly tables differs from that of 4 Base Date = May 1, 1985 Produced by DECPG (Anh Mai Bui). Number 299 | April 1, 2016