Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. 83148-NP THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION THE INTERNATIONAL FINANCE CORPORATION AND THE MULTILATERAL INVESTMENT GUARANTEE AGENCY COUNTRY PARTNERSHIP STRATEGY FOR NEPAL FY 2014-2018 May 1, 2014 Nepal Country Management Unit South Asia Region International Finance Corporation South Asia Department Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. DATE OF CURRENT INTERIM STRATEGY NOTE AUGUST 4, 2011 CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS US$1.00 = 97 NPR (AS OF APRIL 2014) GOVERNMENT FISCAL YEAR JULY 16–JULY 15 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AAA Analytic and Advisory Services NBF Nepal Business Forum ADB Asian Development Bank NBL Nepal Bank Limited CA Constituent Assembly NEA Nepal Electricity Authority CAR Capital Adequacy Ratio NGO Non-Governmental Organization CAS Country Assistance Strategy NLSS Nepal Living Standards Survey CPAR Country Procurement Assessment Review NPPR Nepal Portfolio Performance Review CPS Country Partnership Strategy NPR Nepalese Rupee CSO Civil Society Organization PAF Poverty Alleviation Fund DFID UK Department for International Development PEFA Public Expenditure and Financial DPO Development Policy Operation Accountability EU European Union PETS Public Expenditure Tracking Survey FDI Foreign Direct Investment PforR Program-for-Results FY Fiscal Year PFM Public Finance Management GAFSP Global Agriculture and Food Security Program PPA Power Purchase Agreement GDP Gross Domestic Product PPP Public-Private-Partnerships GNDI Gross National Disposable Income PRG Partial Risk Guarantee GoN Government of Nepal RBB Rastriya Banijya Bank HNP Health, Nutrition and Population ROSC Report on the Observance of Standards IBN Investment Board Nepal and Codes IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction SARTI South Asia Regional Integration in and Development Trade and Investment IDA International Development Association SREP Scaling Up Renewable Energy Project IEG Independent Evaluation Group SSRP School Sector Reform Program IFC International Finance Corporation SWAp Sector Wide Approach IMF International Monetary Fund TA Technical Assistance ISN Interim Strategy Note TF Trust Fund IWRMP Irrigation and Water Resources Management UK United Kingdom Project UN United Nations MDG Millenium Development Goals USAID United States Agency for International MIGA Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency Development MoU Memorandum of Understanding WBG World Bank Group SMEs Small and Medium Enterprises WDR World Development Report MW Megawatt International Development Association International Finance Corporation Multilateral Investment Guarantee (IDA) (IFC) Agency (MIGA) Vice President Philippe H. Le Houerou Vice President Karin Finkelston Vice President Michel Wormser Country Director Johannes Zutt Regional Director Serge Devieux Director Ravi Vish Country Manager (vacant) Country Manager Kyle Kelhofer Task Team Leader Paul Barbour Task Team Leader Johannes Widmann Resident Representative Val Bagatsing Task Team Leader Gunjan Gulati COUNTRY PARTNERSHIP STRATEGY FOR NEPAL TABLE OF CONTENTS I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.......................................................................................................... i II. COUNTRY CONTEXT .................................................................................................................. 1 A. Social and Political Context..................................................................................................... 1 B. Nepal’s Progress in Poverty Reduction ................................................................................... 3 C. Economic Developments and Prospects .................................................................................. 5 D. Development Challenges and Opportunities ........................................................................... 8 E. Government Priorities and Medium-Term Strategy .............................................................. 12 III. WORLD BANK GROUP PARTNERSHIP STRATEGY FOR NEPAL ................................ 12 A. Lessons Learned from Previous Strategies and Feedback from Consultations ..................... 12 B. Proposed Assistance Strategy ................................................................................................ 13 Pillar 1: Increasing Economic Growth and Competitiveness................................................. 15 Pillar 2: Increasing Inclusive Growth and Opportunities for Shared Prosperity................... 19 Foundations and Cross-Cutting Dimensions.......................................................................... 22 C. Implementing the FY14-FY18 Strategy ................................................................................. 24 The World Bank Group Lending Program.............................................................................. 24 The World Bank Group Knowledge Program ........................................................................ 27 Partnerships ............................................................................................................................. 28 IV. MANAGING RISKS ................................................................................................................... 29 Figures/Tables: Figure 1 : Nepal’s impressive progress on poverty reduction...................................................................... 3 Figure 2 : Population clustered around the poverty line .............................................................................. 3 Figure 3 : Poverty reduction correlates to increase in remittances .............................................................. 4 Figure 4 : Nepal’s historic growth rates ....................................................................................................... 5 Table 1 : Investment needs per year by sector, 2011-2020 .......................................................................... 9 Table 2 : IDA lending program FY14-18 .................................................................................................. 25 Table 3 : Analytic and Advisory Activities FY14-18 ................................................................................ 27 Table 4 : WBG engagement areas vis-à-vis development partners ........................................................... 29 Annex Annex 1 : Results Framework for the Nepal CPS FY14-FY18 ................................................................. 31 Annex 2 : IFC Portfolio and Pipeline Summary ........................................................................................ 37 Annex 3 : Poverty in Nepal - Achievements and remaining challenges .................................................... 39 Annex 4 : Nepal Foreign Aid Structure ..................................................................................................... 48 Annex 5 : Lessons Learned from Previous Strategies ............................................................................... 50 Annex 6 : Feedback from CAS Consultations and Client Survey ............................................................. 54 Annex 7 : Selected Indicators of Portfolio Performance and Management ............................................... 57 Annex 8 : IDA Operations Portfolio .......................................................................................................... 58 Annex 9 : Nepal Trust Fund Portfolio ....................................................................................................... 59 Annex 10: Nepal IFC Portfolio ................................................................................................................... 60 Annex 11: Nepal at a Glance ...................................................................................................................... 61 Map of Nepal: IBRD 33455 WORLD BANK GROUP COUNTRY PARTNERSHIP STRATEGY FOR NEPAL I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY i. Nepal has achieved remarkable progress over the last years. The country managed to halve the percentage of people living on less than $1.25 a day in only seven years, from 53 percent in 2003/2004 to 25 percent in 2010/2011. Several social indicators in education, health and gender have also improved. In addition, since the end of the civil war in 2006, Nepal has successfully transitioned away from being a post-conflict country and former combatants have been integrated into the country’s armed forces. While the country’s political transition – notably the drafting of a new constitution – is taking longer than expected, the November 2013 elections, which resulted in a peaceful transfer in power, were an important step toward the formation of an inclusive and democratic state. ii. To build on this progress, Nepal needs to take advantage of its economic potential and put in place the prerequisites that will provide faster, sustained and inclusive growth. While the political process remains intricate (understandably so, given Nepal’s relatively short experience with democratic governance), the country urgently needs to pay greater attention to the economy. Remarkably, Nepal’s economy grew steadily even during the height of the conflict, and economic management remained prudent, resulting in a budget surplus in 2013. Yet growth levels are too low to enable Nepal to continue its past progress and relegate poverty to history. Current growth relies heavily on remittances supporting consumption and growth in basic services with low growth potential. iii. To move to a higher growth trajectory, Nepal will have to remove bottlenecks to private and public investment in key growth sectors. The most vivid example of Nepal’s economic potential is hydropower. While the estimated potential for hydroelectricity generation in Nepal is 84,000 megawatts (MW), of which at least half is economically viable, only 746 MW (less than 2 percent of the viable potential) is currently developed. Hydropower development could be a game changer for Nepal. Development of the sector would reduce load-shedding and provide major revenues through exporting electricity to India and Bangladesh. iv. The World Bank Group stands ready to support Nepal’s aspirations for increasing economic growth through increased investments in key sectors and making growth more inclusive to help equalize opportunities across groups and communities. This constitutes a major shift in World Bank Group (WBG) support away from short-term post-conflict assistance towards establishing the foundations for increased, inclusive and sustainable growth. After three consecutive interim strategies in Fiscal Years (FY) 2007, 2009 and 2011, the WBG will provide more long-term support. The Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) will cover four years from FY2014-2018. v. World Bank Group support to Nepal will be aligned to the Bank’s twin global goals— eliminating extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity. A poverty “lens”, developed for the CPS, concludes that Nepal’s progress on poverty reduction has been commendable, yet a significant share of the population remains clustered around the poverty line. It confirms the need for WBG support to focus on removing Nepal’s binding growth constraints to allow for higher i income levels. In this context the International Development Association (IDA), the International Finance Corporation (IFC) and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) will collaborate to make maximum use of their joint comparative advantage. WBG efforts will be organized within two pillars. Under pillar 1, the WBG will support increasing economic growth and competitiveness, and will focus on expanding hydroelectric power generation, enhancing transport connectivity, and improving the business environment. Under pillar 2, the WBG will provide support to increasing inclusive growth and opportunities for shared prosperity, aiming to enhance the productivity of agriculture and equalize access to health care, skills development and social protection. Cutting across these pillars, WBG activities will contribute to improving the effectiveness, efficiency and accountability of public expenditure. vi. WBG support will be guided by the principles of balancing risks and rewards, selectivity and flexibility. In a shift from more cautious approaches taken in past strategies, the WBG will engage in larger programs that strive for nation-wide impact. Regarding selectivity, this strategy consolidates the WBG’s engagement into fewer sectors, where the Group has a comparative advantage and can leverage its financing and analytical resources for greater development impact. In addition, the WBG will maintain programming flexibility, given the politically-fragile country environment. vii. The WBG’s engagement in Nepal will continue to face significant risks that could affect strategy implementation. Given the challenges of developing hydropower potential in particular, the overall risk rating is high—as well as the potential rewards. Among the most significant risks are political instability that can impact economic performance, weak governance and increased corruption and fiduciary risks, and low capacity for program implementation, including for assessing and mitigating environment and social impacts. Specific mitigation measures have been devised to prevent these risks from impacting CPS implementation and to deal with them once they occur. These include, among others, a more active cross-party engagement and communication to build all-party consensus on development needs; addressing both ex ante and ex post dimensions of public resource use through public financial management activities; increased focus on safeguards during preparation and implementation support through capacity building, training and study tour programs for key officials involved in safeguard work; and in hydropower in particular, taking a more holistic approach that focuses on the necessary governance, policy and institutional frameworks and strengthening the synergies between IDA, IFC and MIGA. ii II. COUNTRY CONTEXT 1. Following a ten-year civil war that ended in 2006 and led to the transition from a centuries-old monarchy to a republic based on a multi-party democracy, 1 Nepal remains at a crossroads. It can either continue on a path of limited economic management that has delivered modest growth with good human development outcomes, or it could engage in proactive reforms that would provide a significant boost to the country’s growth and development prospects. As a fragile state, Nepal stands out for its relatively-stable economic performance and its exemplary results in poverty reduction and human development. Two key factors contributed to these achievements: (i) a tradition of community participation as well as strong community institutions, which continued to function even during the height of the conflict, and (ii) extensive labor migration to other countries and a resulting expansion in remittances-fueled consumption. To continue to reduce extreme poverty and increase the incomes of the bottom 40 percent, Nepal will need faster and more sustained growth, and this will require it to boost investment and narrow a massive infra- structure gap, which is the single most important constraint to growth. Finally, Nepal will need to make growth more inclusive and to provide opportunities for all Nepalis to participate in its development. 2. This strategy proposes a major shift in World Bank Group (WBG) support away from short-term post-conflict assistance towards establishing the foundations for increased, inclusive and sustainable growth. Based on Nepal’s progress to date, there is a compelling case to provide assistance under a longer-term partnership strategy, while maintaining the flexibility needed to accommodate a fragile country environment. To do this, the strategy aims to consolidate the WBG’s current engagement in basic services while shifting focus on the binding constraints to growth: inadequate infrastructure (especially in energy and transportation), a poor investment climate, a fragile financial sector and a poorly skilled workforce. Given the reality of the Nepali economy, it will also focus on agriculture. It also aims to shift the Bank’s engagement in the social sectors from providing financing for access to services to providing knowledge and solutions for improving quality, governance and opportunities for shared prosperity. A. Social and Political Context th 3. Since the middle of the 20 century, Nepal has struggled to move away from a feudal past toward a more open and inclusive society. This process has been made more difficult by Nepal’s varied topography, ranging from the Himalayas in the north to the southern plains, and its diversity of castes, ethnicities, and linguistic groups; formidable connectivity challenges have left many communities isolated from the rest of the country even today. The overthrow of the autocratic Rana regime in 1950 was followed by a period of democratic politics under a constitutional monarchy, but by 1960, the king had overthrown the government and dissolved parliament, establishing in its place an authoritarian Panchayat (assembly) system. Within this system, power remained concentrated in the monarchy and a handful of elite high-caste families from Kathmandu, and was used to extract resources for the benefit of the ruling elite rather than the poor. By 1990, the first Jana Andolan (peoples’ movement) had forced the king to reinstate open national elections and curtail royal power. But political parties failed to meet the high popular expectation for change, and patronage under the Panchayat system continued. In 1996, a rebel Maoist movement took advantage of popular disenchantment. Drawing support from marginalized rural groups that remained outside of the political system and were disillusioned with the state as service provider, it launched a civil war to end the monarchy and establish a socialist republic. By 2005, the Maoist movement had 1 A multi-party system already existed prior to 2006 under a constitutional monarchy, but multi-party democracy has become the defining feature in the post-2006 political transition. 1 taken control of much of Nepal’s countryside, and in early 2006 the king agreed to restore the House of representatives (dissolved in 2002). The interim legislature promulgated an interim constitution in 2007, which proclaimed Nepal to be a secular federal republic, effectively bringing to an end its history as a Hindu kingdom. Box 1: Identity Politics in Nepal 2011 Census - Preliminary Results Census Highlights The rise of ethnic movements in recent years and the domination of identity politics in the discussion of Caste/ethnic group (percent) 2001 2011 federalism have complicated the process to agree a Chhetri 15.8 16.6 new constitution. This struggle both epitomizes and Braham-hill 12.7 12.2 exacerbates Nepal’s highly complex ethnic, religious, Magar 7.1 7.1 geographical, caste and class divisions, as different Tharu 6.8 6.6 communities have at times tried to secure special Tamang 5.6 5.8 privileges under a new constitution. Newar 5.5 5.0 Yadav 3.9 4.0 There are 123 languages spoken in Nepal, according Rai 2.8 2.3 to the 2011 census, which also records 125 caste and Mother tongue (percent) ethnic groups. Buddhists (about 9 percent of the Nepali 18.6 44.6 population) and Muslims (about 4 percent) are sizable Mailthali 12.3 11.7 minorities among a largely Hindu population (about Bhojpuri 7.53 6 81 percent). Tharu 5.9 5.8 Lower-caste people and rural residents have been Tamang 5.2 5.1 historically marginalized. Long-term structural issues Newar 3.6 3.2 related to social exclusion remain unresolved and Urdu 0.8 2.6 severely affect specific larger communities in Nepal, Religion (percent) especially the Dalits (comprising different ethnic and Hinduism 80.6 81.3 geographic groups), Tamang, Tharu, Magar, Muslims Buddhism 10.7 9.0 (jointly nearly 40 percent of the population) as well as Islam 2.8 4.4 selected Madhesi communities (residents of the Outer Christianity 0.04 1.4 Terai). 4. While Nepal has made significant progress in consolidating peace and transitioning to the new political system since the end of the civil war, there have also been setbacks. Nepal’s post-war political transition has involved two interrelated processes: (i) consolidation of the peace, and (ii) promulgation of a new constitution. It made good progress on the peace process – notably by formally concluding the integration of ex-combatants into the armed forces in August 2012 – but the political transition is taking longer than expected. Since the end of the monarchy, Nepal has experienced seven different governments. A constituent assembly tasked in 2008 with drafting Nepal’s new constitution was dissolved in May 2012 without completing its work, due to irrecon- cilable differences between the political parties and cross-party caucuses on the electoral system, the shape of the future federal state, the devolution of powers and the structure of government. In March 2013, after almost a year of political stasis, the main parties agreed to form an interim government consisting exclusively of former secretaries (non-politicians, who were acting as ministers), chaired by the Chief Justice (acting as prime minister). The interim government was charged with holding new elections to form a new constituent assembly; these elections were successfully held in November 2013 and the new assembly met for the first time in January 2014. 5. The 2013 elections give cause for cautious optimism. They were widely lauded as free and fair and were also carried out in a largely peaceful manner. Given Nepal’s short experience of democratic government, political parties continue to struggle with finding an acceptable modus vivendi. Even so, there have been significant political achievements in the last decade. First, Nepal’s highly-diverse population found a way to continue to discuss difficult topics (such as 2 federalism, identity politics and the form of government) without returning to violence. Second, within eight years of a civil war that brought an end to a Hindu monarchy, Nepalis have forged a strong consensus that their country should be a secular, inclusive and democratic republic. These achievements constitute a good foundation for future constitutional discussions. B. Nepal’s Progress in Poverty Reduction 6. Nepal has made dramatic progress in poverty reduction in recent years and appears on track to make extreme poverty history. Nepal attained the first Millennium Development Goal (MDG), to halve extreme poverty, ahead of time. The percentage of people living on less than $1.25 per day (the international line for extreme poverty) fell from about 53 percent of the population in 2003/2004 to 25 percent in 2010/2011, in just seven years, putting Nepal ahead of India and Bangladesh in terms of poverty prevalence (see Figure 1). If poverty reduction continues at this rate, extreme poverty could be eradicated within a decade. A poverty “lens” developed for this CPS is presented in Annex 3. Nepal also shows remarkable progress on multi-dimensional measures of poverty, which include education and health outcomes besides focusing only on consumption. In 2013, Nepal was the top performer among 22 countries for which a multi-dimensional poverty index could be constructed. Figure 1: Nepal’s impressive progress on poverty reduction 7. Even so, vulnerability remains high Figure 2: Population clustered around the among the bottom 40 percent. The share of poverty line overall consumption by the bottom 40 percent increased from 18.5 to 23.6 percent between 2003/04 and 2010/11. As explained below, this consumption increase was largely fueled by remittances. The same period witnessed declining inequality, as Nepal’s Gini coefficient fell from 0.41 to 0.35. Yet, while 52 percent of poor households moved out of poverty during this time, 13 percent of the non- poor slipped back into poverty. As shown in Figure 2, a significant share of the population remains clustered around the poverty line with Note: The x-axis measures the ratio of annual per-capita consumption very low levels of consumption. Over 70 in 2010-11 to the international poverty line of $1.25 PPP converted to percent of Nepalis live on less than $2.50/day local currency. A ratio of one means that per-capita consumption is equal to the international poverty line of $1.25 PPP in 2005. and over 90 percent on less than $4.00. 3 8. Poverty and vulnerability are still predominantly a rural phenomenon, which correlates with spatial concentration as well as caste and ethnicity. Nearly 92 percent of the poverty reduction between 2003/04 and 2010/11 occurred in rural areas, but poverty continues to be more severe (27 percent) there than in urban areas (15 percent). Poverty prevalence is also twice as high in mountain areas (42 percent) as in the Terai plains (23 percent), even though the plains are home to almost four times as many poor people (12 percent of the poor live in the mountain areas and 45 percent in the plains). Poverty is also most severe among ethnic and caste minorities – including a staggering 43 percent among Hill Dalits – even though the varied population density between the mountainous areas and the plains results in a less clear-cut ethnic-based pattern of total poverty. Vulnerability is also higher than the national average in the Mid- and Far-West Hill regions and higher among Terai middle castes, Dalits and other minorities. 9. Remittances-fueled consumption has been the Figure 3: Poverty reduction correlates to main driver of poverty reduction. With about four increase in remittances million Nepalis currently working outside the country and sending part of their wages home, remittances have soared and helped to give poor households the means to increase consumption and lift themselves out of poverty. Figure 3 shows the correlation between the increase in remittances and the drop in poverty. But while labor migration has provided a response to limited domestic employment opportunities, out-migration involves significant negative externalities, including dislocation of families and the risk of inflows leading to real appreciation and a shift of labor resources towards production of non-tradeable goods. Remittances thus far have not been used effectively to finance Nepal’s development and jobs also need to be created “at home” for Nepal’s growing youth population. 10. Several social indicators have significantly improved over the last decade. Most MDGs related to health and education are within reach. In primary education, overall enrollment rates have reached 95 percent, gender parity has been achieved and disparities across disadvantaged ethnic/ caste groups have decreased significantly. For example, in the mountain and hill areas, primary enrollment rates for Dalits and Janajatis are now comparable to Brahmins and Newaris. In health, the maternal mortality rate fell from 538 per 100,000 live births in 1996 to 380 in 2011; infant mortality fell from 110 deaths per 1,000 live births in 1990 to 46 in 2011; and full immunization coverage rose from 43 percent in 1996 to 87 percent in 2011. While this progress has been impressive, Nepal still ranks low on the UN’s Human Development Index, at 157 out of 187 countries in 2013, and much remains to be done to bring human development indicators to middle- income country levels. 11. Nepal has also made significant progress in enhancing gender equality and women’s empowerment. Gender parity in primary education has been achieved, with completion rates for girls at primary level being slightly higher (82.1 percent) than for boys (81.8 percent). There is also little difference in enrollment rates between girls and boys at the secondary level. The percentage of births attended by skilled birth attendants almost doubled, from 19 percent in 2006 to 36 percent in 2011, but women’s access to these services is much higher in urban than rural areas and more 4 prevalent in Terai than in mountain districts. Contraceptive prevalence rates have been constant at about 48-50 percent for the last five years, yet the overall fertility rate declined from 3.1 (2006) to 2.6 (2011), far better than in similar-income countries. Women’s participation in the labor force is relatively high compared to similar countries, with a female-to-male labor force participation ratio of 0.8. Nepal has also made progress in property ownership for women and in fighting gender-based violence. Even so, women’s participation in the constituent assembly is about 30 percent, but there is very little participation of women in the higher echelons of the executive. C. Economic Developments and Prospects 12. Over the past decades, Nepal’s economy experienced positive but relatively modest and uneven growth by regional standards. As shown in Figure 4, Nepal’s growth performance was strongest from the mid-1980s to the mid-1990s, at around 5 percent per year on average. In the subsequent two decades, growth averaged around 4 percent per year, significantly lower than in the rest of South Asia. While the country managed to maintain positive growth rates during the 1996- 2006 civil war – a laudable achievement – since then it has not been able to reap a major post- conflict dividend or accelerate growth. Nepal appears to be stuck in a modest-growth trap, characterized by weak industrial dynamism while agricultural and services sector performance remains largely dependent on external factors (weather patterns and remittance inflows respectively). In FY13, growth dipped to 3.6 percent, down from 4.9 percent in FY12. This weak performance was due to unexpectedly low levels of activity in the agriculture sector, which grew at only 1.3 percent – the weakest performance for agriculture in five years – and the industrial sector, which grew by 1.6 percent. By contrast, services sector growth reached 6 percent and now accounts for over half of total value added in the economy. 13. A shrinking industrial and export base is cause for concern. A sharp growth in private transfers has masked (and to some extent also caused) a growing trade gap, which reached 27 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in FY13. Since the late 1990s, Nepal’s exports as a share of GDP have steadily declined, from over 25 percent in 1997 to under 10 percent today. Moreover, this coincided with a decline of the share of industry (and particularly manufacturing, which most strongly suffers from lacking infrastructure), which fell by 5 percentage points in 2000-2010. Figure 4: Nepal’s historic growth rates 14. Today, growth relies largely on remittances supporting consumption. In FY13, remittances soared to an unprecedented $4.9 billion, growing 11.7 percent year-over-year in dollar terms, equivalent to over 25 percent of GDP—exceeding both foreign aid and foreign direct 5 investment (FDI) by a considerable margin. These inflows were mostly channeled to consumption, boosting aggregate demand, helping to lift household incomes, and driving expansion of services (albeit mostly basic services with low sophistication or growth potential) and they also contributed to a large current account surplus, despite a widening trade gap. In FY13, Nepal recorded a current account surplus of 3.3 percent of GDP, with reserves building up to $4.9 billion (equivalent to 7.6 months of imports). 15. The economy-wide potential for growth has been depressed by low levels of public and private investment, despite available finance. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) as a share of GDP rose only moderately between FY05 and FY10, from 20 percent of GDP to a peak of 22.2 percent before ebbing again down to just above 21 percent in FY13, significantly below the shares observed in most other South Asian countries. During that period, government GFCF has remained in a narrow band between 2.7 percent and 4.7 percent of GDP, falling to 3.5 percent of GDP in 2013. Strikingly, such modest levels of investment are not symptomatic of tight fiscal balances and/or excessive recurrent spending: between FY10 and FY13, the budget balance has oscillated between a low (deficit) of 1 percent of GDP and a high (surplus) of 2 percent of GDP in FY13 – with Nepal the only country in South Asia to report a budget surplus in that year. Likewise private investment has remained subdued despite expressed potential interest of foreign investors (and Nepal’s unexploited hydroelectric capacity) and high private external inflows amounting to over 25 percent of GDP. The spectacular growth in private transfers in recent years appears in a buildup of liquidity in the financial system but low uptake by the private sector in terms of credit. Moreover, FDI has increased but from a minuscule base (from $38 million in FY10 to $102 million in FY13), and it remains marginal as a share of GDP (0.5 percent in FY13). 16. Nepal’s labor force has expanded rapidly in recent years and will soon need more and better jobs. Between 2001 and 2011, Nepal’s economically active population (aged 15-59) grew by 32 percent, from 12.6 million to 16.6 million. Employment remains highly informal, and the small formal sector (5.8 percent of the employed) is overwhelmingly male (98.5 percent). While recent gains in education may payoff in the medium-term, labor productivity has grown by a modest 0.56 percent annually, on average, between 1999 and 2008. Given that over two-thirds of jobs remain in – or are linked to – agriculture, the job challenge will remain agrarian for years to come. Significant gains can come from enhancing the conditions for labor mobility within and outside Nepal. Within Nepal, gains can be reaped by enhancing labor mobility from rural areas to urban centers where they can they can be more productive. Another opportunity is leveraging international migration, but despite large numbers of Nepalis leaving for work overseas every year, 2 emigration remains costly (about $1,500 for a worker going to Gulf countries and Malaysia), characterized by low-skilled work and a low ability to invest savings in entrepreneurial activities in Nepal. Developing high-growth sectors, e.g. tourism, will be pivotal for job creation, but still requires putting in place growth- enhancing measures. For example, according to estimates by the IFC, making electricity more reliable in developing countries can lead to 4-5 percent in annual job growth, an impact that is likely to be even higher for Nepal. 17. Macroeconomic and fiscal management have been prudent. Tax reform has had some success, with revenues growing sharply in recent years to about 17.4 percent of GDP, which is the highest in South Asia. The main focus of monetary policy has been maintenance of the Nepali rupee’s peg to the Indian rupee (at 1.6:1), which can at times contradict the central bank’s mandate 2 In FY13, some 450,000 Nepalis obtained approval to work overseas and the total figure (including migrants to India and those migrating illegally via India) is believed to be larger. 6 to contain inflation. Inflation has remained high in recent years (above 8 percent, but below double digits), largely reflecting price movements in India (Nepal’s largest trading partner, by far), with non-food and core inflation driven by wage pressures and increasing – administered – fuel prices. Despite the prevailing political uncertainty, fiscal policy has remained disciplined, requiring only limited use of domestic borrowing (not exceeding 2 percent of GDP in the past three years). The flipside of this success has been a chronic inability fully to roll-out capital expenditure plans, with negative implications for future growth. Macroeconomic Prospects and Risks 18. Going forward, Nepal’s growth is expected to remain dependent on consumption (supported by remittances) and agricultural output (dependent on weather patterns), as well as external developments. Real GDP growth is estimated to have slowed to 3.6 percent in FY13, reflecting a weak monsoon and low levels of activity in India. Over the long run, Nepal’s ability to spur significant growth will depend on: (i) achieving greater political stability, (ii) enhancing private sector engagement by removing bottlenecks to investment, and (iii) investing in new and better infrastructure. 19. Macroeconomic policy remains on a steady path. Over the medium term, ongoing reforms in tax administration are expected to increase fiscal revenue further, while expenditure is expected to grow only moderately as a share of GDP. On the external side, slower growth of remittances is expected to translate into an increasingly negative current account balance (from a current peak surplus). With IMF data showing FDI growing at a modest pace, gross official reserves are expected to decline gradually, from 7.6 months of imports in 2012/13 to just above 6 months at the end of the CPS period. 20. Financial sector risk and weaknesses remain. Nepal’s financial sector expanded rapidly over the last eight years, with domestic credit to the private sector jumping from 28 percent of GDP in 2005 to 55 percent in 2013. Following a downturn of the property market in 2009 and a liquidity squeeze in early 2011, several financial institutions faced severe balance sheet stress. The central bank took a range of remedial measures to avert a potential financial crisis, inter alia pursuing an accommodative monetary policy (with remittances inflows only partly sterilized) to allow banks to rebuild liquidity. As a result, in FY12, broad money grew by almost 23 percent, well above nominal GDP growth (14 percent), although it moderated to 16.3 percent the following year as the pressure to keep liquidity high to support the financial sector eased. 21. Problem loans in the banking system are under-reported, contributing to the fragility of the system. Reported results indicate that problems loan levels on an aggregate basis are a modest 3.8 percent, but a sizeable number of banks and financial institutions report high non-performing loans (NPLs) and loan ever-greening. Problem loans are likely to have been building up—owing to inadequate lending and risk management practices. Stress tests suggest that, in a protracted recession, recapitalization needs in the banking sector could reach 2¾ percent of GDP, with 26 out of 31 banks breaching the minimum capital adequacy ratio (CAR). An ongoing recapitalization of the Rastriya Banijya Bank (RBB) and Nepal Bank Limited (NBL) – together 15 percent of the banking industry – has improved the banks’ financial condition, but both remain noncompliant with the minimum capital adequacy requirements. During 2013, the net worth of RBB and NBL became positive for the first time in more than a decade. Since 2012, government has injected additional capital into the RBB through a combination of share issues, conversion of preference shares into common shares, and conversion of debt into equity. 7 22. Debt and debt distress risks. Nepal’s total stock of public debt has been declining steadily from over 35 percent of GDP in FY10 to under 31 percent in FY13, with external public debt accounting for 64 percent of the total. A joint IMF-World Bank debt sustainability analysis (2011) showed a moderate risk of debt distress, with external public debt dynamics broadly sound and resilient to possible shocks under a baseline scenario. A new debt sustainability analysis is currently underway and preliminary findings suggest a reassessment of Nepal's debt distress rating from moderate to low. D. Development Challenges and Opportunities 23. Nepal has the unique chance to make extreme poverty history, but to achieve this goal the country needs to rekindle faster, more inclusive and sustained economic growth. Going forward, the challenge for Nepal will be to move to a higher growth trajectory by removing key bottlenecks to public and private investment. The good news is that, for both forms of investments, the resources are already available and only need to be unlocked. Regarding public investment, given that Nepal has the lowest fiscal deficit in South Asia – including a positive balance in FY13 – and sustainable debt levels, the challenge is to use available resources to boost capital spending and increase public investment. The financial sector points to a need to address supply-side constraints in improving access to finance that would allow Nepal to attract more private investment. 24. A first prerequisite for higher growth is greater political stability and policy certainty. For the last years, Nepalis have focused their public dialogue on the political transition. But this has shifted attention away from the country’s serious economic challenges and as a result growth has slowed and competitiveness has continued to erode. According to the WBG’s Investment Climate Assessment (ICA), private businesses in Nepal consider political instability the single most severe obstacle to their day-to-day operations, even worse than the lack of electricity. Political volatility and uncertainty have hampered growth-oriented fiscal policies and have prompted the private sector to continuously adopt a wait-and-see position, manifested in a significant gap between expressions of interest to invest and actual commitments; they may also explain why much of Nepal’s remittance income is used for consumption rather than investment in the country. While the November 2013 elections were peaceful and delivered a relatively clear outcome, it will now be necessary for Nepal to boost investment and undertake the structural reforms needed to tackle the enduring sources of fragility, improve the investment climate, and restore external competitiveness. 25. Beyond Nepal’s political challenges, poor and insufficient infrastructure is the single most important economic bottleneck to growth in Nepal—and therefore to more jobs, improved services, better livelihoods, and lower poverty. In the 2012/13 Global Competitiveness Report, Nepal ranked 143rd out of 144 countries in overall quality of infrastructure. The most binding bottlenecks to growth and investment are insufficient and unreliable electrical power and low-quality transportation networks. Electricity and transport account for about two-thirds of the total infrastructure investment need of about 8 percent to 12 percent of GDP per annum until 2020 (see Table 1). Higher infrastructure spending is needed for Nepal to break out of a vicious cycle— low infrastructure investment, leading to poor quality infrastructure services, leading to a poor investment climate, leading to low private investment, leading to low public investment. 26. Limited access to reliable and affordable electrical power continues to be a fundamental reason for Nepal’s poor economic competitiveness. Nepal has an estimated potential of 84,000 MW of hydroelectric generation capacity, of which at least half is economically viable, but only 746 MW is currently developed (or 1.7 percent of the total viable potential). This is far below peak demand of about 1,100 MW. Moreover, real supply in winter is even less as glacial water flows 8 decrease sharply in the winter, only about 250 MW of capacity is actually available from December through April. While 75 percent of the population is estimated to have access to electricity (grid and off-grid) according to the 2013 census, service is not necessarily available due to shortage of supply, with load shedding of up to 18 hours per day in grid-covered areas in the dry season. To expand access to electricity and reduce load-shedding, Nepal urgently needs to increase its hydro-electric generation capacity, import excess power from India in the winter (when India has a power surplus), and expand its transmission and distribution systems to bring power to end-users. It also needs to expand off-grid generation capacity. Given its high potential, export of power from Nepal to India or other countries would be a significant source of revenue and potential game-changer. But to bring outside investors into the sector, Nepal needs to improve the capacity and efficiency of the Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA), the monopoly off-taker. Table 1: Investment needs per year by sector, 2011-2020 Sector Average share of GDP (%) Electricity 3.3 - 4.5 Transport 2.3 - 3.5 Water and sanitation 1.1 - 1.6 Solid Waste 0.2 - 0.3 Telecom 0.3 - 0.4 Irrigation 1.0 - 1.5 Total 8.2 - 11.8 27. Transportation services are equally underprovided, with many communities physically isolated, and the country as a whole poorly connected with India, its largest trading partner. With its challenging mountainous terrain, Nepal has the lowest road density in South Asia. One- third of residents in the hill areas live on average more than four hours away from an all-season road, and 60 percent of roads are unable to provide all-weather connectivity. The 2013 Road Sector Assessment Study identified maintenance as the foremost challenge to improving transport services. Although access to paved roads doubled (from 24 percent to 51 percent of the population) over the past six years, the quality has not improved. In addition, Nepal needs to expand its regional transportation connectivity to India and potentially China, 3 its huge and fast-growing neighbors. Sharing an approximately 1,800 km long border and 26 border points, India is considered Nepal’s “natural” trading partner. Nepal’s second largest trading partner in South Asia is Bangladesh and facilitation of bilateral trade between Nepal and Bangladesh, through the Siliguri Corridor (India), could provide further opportunities. 28. A difficult regulatory environment and a high degree of informality constrain the private sector’s growth engine. In Nepal, companies have to comply with 130 business processes in order to start, operate or close their business, spread over at least 41 ministries and agencies. According to an IFC stakeholder perception survey, 34 percent of businesses surveyed said they had not made an investment due to regulatory hassles. In addition, the large share of informality, which accounts for 70 percent of total non-agricultural employment, inhibits growth and fuels the need to rely on remittances. Informality allows businesses to evade taxes and to avoid regulation and inspection, which diminishes the quality of good and services. 3 Bilateral trade between India and China reached $58 billion in 2010; most of this trade travels by sea. 9 29. There is also an urgent need to consolidate stability in the financial sector. As mentioned above, the 2011 crisis revealed severe distress in a number of smaller development banks and finance companies. A number of financial institutions remain at risk of insolvency, due to inadequate risk management practices, poor corporate governance and high credit exposure compounded by under-resourced supervision and weak enforcement of prudential norms. The regulatory framework remains weak; operational capacity to manage the fiscal costs of a financial crisis is limited; and so the capacity to prevent and manage potential crises remains a concern. In addition, because both state-owned banks enjoy implicit state guarantees and have received public subsidies to their private shareholders, they undermine effective competition within the sector. While the outreach of the banking sector has increased, not all population groups have equally benefited. Remote areas, small enterprises and women have lower access to financial services. 30. Agriculture will continue to be an important source of growth, jobs and poverty reduction, at least over the medium-term. Agriculture has a key role in promoting growth and poverty reduction, as the second greatest source of value-addition in the economy, and the largest source of employment and poverty reduction. It makes up over one-third of GDP while employing over three-quarters of the population. About 92 percent of the poverty reduction achieved over the last seven years took place in rural areas, and incomes in the rural areas are expected to continue to drive poverty reduction over the medium-term due to the concentration of the poor in the country- side. Therefore, poverty reduction will continue in Nepal only if agricultural productivity improves, rural households sell more of their produce in the market (the share has increased from 25 percent in 2003/04 to 41 percent in 2010/11), and at the same time, opportunities are created for surplus labor to be productively employed in other areas. 31. While Nepal has made good progress on many social indicators, persistently high childhood malnutrition continues to undermine the human potential that is needed to achieve sustained and resilient growth. Nepal has made impressive progress towards achieving a number of MDGs, but it has made relatively less progress on reducing hunger. Chronic energy deficiency in women remains high, at 23.9 percent in the Far-West and 19.3 percent in the Mid-West. Poor infant and child feeding practices are prevalent, with only 24.4 percent of children between 6 and 24 months being fed adequately and 13.4 percent of babies being born with low birth weights and to mothers below 20 years of age. Access to health services remains unequal and of low quality. In 2011, 78 percent of births in the richest quintile took place in health facilities, but the corresponding number was only 11 percent for the bottom 20 percent. Furthermore, high out-of-pocket expenditures for health care – due to a lack of health insurance – create a formidable poverty trap: they represent about 49 percent of monthly household consumption among the poorest 20 percent. Based on 2003, about 6.7 percent of households fall below the poverty line in a given year as a consequence of these expenses. Improvements in health and nutrition are also closely linked to necessary improvements in water and especially sanitation. While access to improved water and sanitation are 87 percent and 91 percent, respectively in urban areas, for rural areas, water access is 85 percent but sanitation access is only 55 percent. Surveys show that 44 percent of existing rural water systems are in need of repairs or rehabilitation. About 5.5 million people suffer from inadequate water service and 16 million from inadequate sanitation facilities. Nepal aims to reach universal access to water and sanitation by 2017. 10 32. Other key challenges in the social sectors include low access to and low quality of skills development, hindering employability. While Nepal has made good progress in enhancing equal access to basic education (grades 1-8), 4 there are still major challenges in improving access to post- basic education, especially for children from poorer quintiles. Another key challenge is improving the quality of education at all levels. In the area of skills development, there remain challenges in increasing workers’ productivity and technical skills in both the formal and informal sectors, as well as domestic and abroad. Over 400,000 workers migrate abroad each year for employment purposes, providing the remittances that currently fuel growth and poverty reduction. But of those migrants, more than 75 percent are engaged in low-skilled jobs. Wage premiums for higher levels of education are considerable in Nepal, and a person with higher secondary education earns almost five times more than a person with primary education (grades 1-5) and two times more than one with basic education (grades 1-8). 33. Despite the recent encouraging trends in poverty reduction, Nepali households remain vulnerable to shocks. The existing social protection system is inadequate for providing reliable safety nets. Social protection spending in Nepal has increased substantially in recent years, from 0.5 percent of GDP in 2004/05 to 2.4 percent in 2010/11, compared to 1-2 percent on average in South Asia, but this increase in spending has been driven in part by a proliferation of costly and inefficient social protection programs with a limited impact on reducing poverty and inequality. Some social assistance schemes – including cash transfers and scholarships – have had only a modest impact on poverty, due to small benefit sizes and weak targeting. Coverage is limited with only 15.5 percent of Nepalis either directly or indirectly benefiting from a cash transfer program, well below the current poverty level of 25 percent. 34. Nepal is also heavily vulnerable to climate change and natural disasters. Recent records show increasing incidents of drought, flood, hailstorms, landslides and crop disease. Climate change is expected to increase these incidents, with floods, droughts, and ecosystem degradation directly affecting the livelihoods of the poor. Nepal is located on the edge of a tectonic plate that gave rise to the Himalayas, and so it is also subject to high earthquake risks, particularly in the Kathmandu valley, which was once the bed of a glacial lake and so is prone to soil liquefaction. 35. Finally, to address all of these challenges, Nepal would benefit from strengthening its governance and management of public expenditures. Nepal continues to rank low on inter- national governance indicators such as Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index (116 out of 177 countries) and the World Governance Indicators (declining trend over the last decade). Public Financial Management (PFM) also remains a critical issue: The Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) rating for the quality of budgetary and financial management fell from 3.5 in 2007 to 2.5 in 2011 and has not improved since. A Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) assessment in 2007 found that while Nepal’s PFM and procurement systems had some good design features, their implementation was limited, leading to fiscal and fiduciary risks. There is some evidence of progress in transparency since then (e.g., the Open Budget Index found an increase in budget transparency from 36 out of 100 in 2006 to 44 in 2012), but there is still room for further improvement. Going forward, Nepal could streamline and strengthen budget preparation, improve budget execution, and improve transparency and oversight. 4 In Nepal, basic education covers five years of primary education and three years of lower secondary education. 11 E. Government Priorities and Medium-Term Strategy 36. The Bank Group strategy will support the Government’s Development Plans. The development plan is implemented through consecutive three-year plans. The new 2014-2016 plan is currently being prepared and will build on the previous one (2009-2013). The overarching goal is to improve the living standards of all Nepalis and to reach middle-income country status by 2022. The key focus is on achieving higher growth and employment, specifically (i) to achieve job-centered, poverty-reducing, sustainable and broad-based economic growth, with the joint efforts of the government, private and community/co-operatives sectors; (ii) to develop physical infrastructure to support both the future federal structure of the nation and regional economic development; (iii) to emphasize inclusive and equitable development to achieve sustainable peace; (iv) to contribute to socioeconomic and social services; (v) to make development results-oriented through ensuring good governance and effective service delivery; and (vi) to boost economic growth and stability by strengthening the private sector and promoting industrialization, trade and services. III. WORLD BANK GROUP PARTNERSHIP STRATEGY FOR NEPAL A. Lessons Learned from Previous Strategies and Feedback from Consultations 37. A self-evaluation by the Bank Country Team yielded lessons for the Bank’s future engagement. Since previous strategies were of a short-term nature, an evaluation of outcomes achieved under the previous engagement can be misleading. However, some broad lessons could be learned (listed in more detail in Annex 5): • The WBG program needs to shift toward a more strategic engagement and address longer- term systemic issues. In line with the findings of the 2011 World Development Report (WDR) on conflict and fragility, the Bank’s program under previous strategies focused on building public confidence by focusing on short-term tangible measures, such as cash-transfers to conflict-affected groups. The next step proposed by the 2011 WDR is to focus on the more arduous tasks of strengthening the capacity of state institutions and making them more inclusive, to help build citizens’ trust in the state. The new strategy therefore proposes to phase out short- term measures and instead contribute to building effective and inclusive systems. This approach span across sectors, including social protection, education, energy, transport and agriculture. • WBG engagement in priority areas need to consider the wider policy and institutional environment that makes project implementation more conducive. For example, previous engagements in the energy sector were considered too transaction- and project-focused and they failed to address wider systemic constraints to sector governance. This led to severe implementation challenges, due to the lack of ability of the sector to cope with a variety to issues, such as safeguards, developing public-private partnerships, increasing operational efficiency, etc. This CPS instead proposes a more holistic approach with a combination of technical assistance, knowledge provision and policy reforms (through a development policy operation) to induce the required structural transformation that would allow for successful development of the country’s vast hydropower potential. It is proposed that this CPS will work towards benefiting from the comfort of IFC’s intervention in attracting the foreign private sector to explore further investment opportunities in the Nepal hydropower sector. • Programmatic flexibility continues to be a key requirement in the Nepali context. For example, IDA will take a cautious approach to providing financial support to power transmission lines as experience shows that it can be extremely difficult for the Bank both to adhere to its social and environmental framework and to overcome deep-seated ideological opposition to such investment. In addition to the examples provided, the sections below describe in more detail how lessons will be integrated into the program. 12 38. To inform CPS preparation, multi-sector groups of Bank Group staff held consultations with over 400 people in five regions outside and within Kathmandu. Annex 6 provides a detailed summary of the consultations feedback. The consulted stakeholder groups included representatives from government, political parties, the media, development partners, the private sector, civil society organizations, youth groups and women groups. Given the political stalemate in the country at the time, broad consultations across a wide range of stakeholders were crucial to obtaining a better understanding and alignment around development priorities. 39. Infrastructure, education/skills, and agriculture emerged as the three highest national priorities during the consultations. For infrastructure, most stakeholders highlighted access to roads and electricity as the most central to Nepal’s growth and poverty reduction. With respect to education, the key issue that emerged was the quality of education, linked with skills development focused on employability for young men and women. In addition, agriculture commercialization, irrigation and productivity increases were considered crucial contributors to growth and poverty reduction. Stakeholders also highlighted corruption and weak governance as serious impediments to inclusive growth and effective service delivery. Other areas highlighted included the need to foster entrepreneurship, promote tourism, improve health, protect the environment, strengthen inclusion and increase women’s empowerment. 40. Another key feedback from the consultations consisted in stakeholder guidance to the WBG to increase its development effectiveness. Stakeholders advised the WBG: (i) to leverage its role as the largest development partner in Nepal and to use its influence to encourage reforms; (ii) to be selective and provide targeted support in key areas and not spread its resources too thinly; (iii) to avoid testing and piloting new approaches and instead focus on concrete and longer-term support based on proven models; (iv) carefully to embark on transformational mega-projects while guarding against corruption and governance risks; and (v) to maintain stability and continuity of assistance in areas where there have been good results and avoid getting distracted by topical subjects in international development. 41. In December 2012, the World Bank Group also conducted a client survey about the WBG’s effectiveness and suggestions for future engagement in Nepal. The survey identified lack of peace and security stemming from weak governance as the top priorities. Respondents valued the partnership with the WBG and were positive about its ability to contribute to greater development effectiveness. They also urged better knowledge dissemination and grassroots involvement from the Bank. More details are provided in Annex 5. B. Proposed Assistance Strategy Summary Results Framework Pillar 1: Increasing economic growth and Pillar 2: Increasing inclusive growth and competitiveness opportunities for shared prosperity Outcome 1.1: Increased supply of electricity, including Outcome 2.1: Increased agricultural productivity and import, and improved access to reliable and affordable commercialization electricity within Nepal Outcome 1.2: Improved transportation connectivity, Outcome 2.2: More equitable access to education and internally and with India skills development, of higher quality and relevance Outcome 1.3: Improved environment for private sector Outcome 2.3: Improved health and nutrition services, investment, including increased financial sector stability particularly for the poor and disadvantaged Outcome 2.4: More efficient and transparent social safety net system 13 42. The WBG will support Nepal’s aspirations for increasing economic growth through increased investments in key sectors while providing support to make growth more inclusive and to help equalize opportunities across groups and communities. These focus areas are considered to be most appropriate to reduce extreme poverty and increase shared prosperity in Nepal. IDA, IFC and MIGA will continue to foster their ongoing collaboration in these areas to make maximum use of their joint comparative advantage. As shown in the results framework in Annex 1 and the summary above, WBG efforts will be organized within two pillars. Under pillar 1, the WBG will focus on increasing economic growth and competitiveness. Given Nepal’s binding growth constraints, WBG support will focus on hydroelectric power generation, enhancing transport connectivity, and improving the business environment. Under pillar 2, the WBG will focus on increasing inclusive growth and opportunities for shared prosperity. WBG support under this pillar will focus on enhancing the productivity of agriculture and equalizing access to health care, skills development and social protection, while also improving the quality of these services. Cutting across these pillars, WBG activities will also help to improve the efficiency, effectiveness and accountability of public expenditure. 43. Based on the lessons learned from previous engagements and feedback from consultations with key stakeholders, the following principles will guide the WBG’s engagement in Nepal: (i) balancing risks with reward, (ii) selectivity, and (iii) flexibility. • Balancing risks and rewards. In a shift from the approach taken in past Interim Strategy Notes (ISNs), the WBG will engage in larger programs that strive for nation-wide impact, such as attracting active private sector participation in developing the potential for the country’s hydro- electricity generation. Some of the priority areas of the CPS are also areas with a mixed record in project implementation, but nevertheless are crucial to support Nepal’s development. To alleviate these risks, the CPS will put a strong focus on providing the necessary technical assistance and policy reforms that will provide a more conducive environment for improved project implementation and performance. • Selectivity. This strategy consolidates the WBG’s engagement into fewer sectors, where the WBG has a comparative advantage and can leverage its financing and analytical resources for greater development impact. It also consolidates WBG engagement within sectors, for example in education with a proposed shift to skills building from the current broad engagement in primary, secondary, tertiary education and vocational training. The rationale for selectivity is based on: (i) country priorities; (ii) availability of resources, especially IDA, and the need to utilize limited resources for its greatest impact; and (iii) WBG comparative advantage vis-à-vis other development partners. • Flexibility. Programming flexibility will remain necessary, given the politically-fragile country environment and low implementation capacity. While the CPS identifies engagement areas that are high-risk (as well as high-reward) it will also retain the flexibility to make adjustments if project implementation is seriously off track and potentially refocus on areas with a better track record. Projects will also be restructured as needed and the program will continue to proactively cancel resources and redirect them elsewhere, as circumstances warrant. A mid-term implementation evaluation will provide a status update and potential course correction. 14 Pillar 1: Increasing Economic Growth and Competitiveness Pillar 1: Increasing economic growth and competitiveness Outcome 1.1: Increased supply of electricity, including import, and improved access to reliable and affordable electricity within Nepal Outcome 1.2: Improved transportation connectivity, internally and with India Outcome 1.3: Improved environment for private sector investment, including increased financial sector stability 44. This pillar will focus on removing the binding constraints to private investment and growth by focusing on energy, transport, the financial sector and the business enabling environment. As already mentioned above, growth is an important requirement for Nepal to further reduce extreme poverty and to increase shared prosperity. Since infrastructure is the key binding constraint to growth, a key focus will be on energy and transportation. Addressing these infra- structure constraints would not only promote growth, but also address poverty more directly. For example, access to electricity is required to run clinics and hospitals. Transportation infrastructure will help to connect many now-isolated communities in the poorest areas to social services, markets, economic opportunities, and assistance during emergencies, and to enhance social inclusion, as Nepal’s poor connectivity has historically been a driver of conflict. 5 Outcome 1.1: Increased supply of electricity, including import, and improved access to reliable and affordable electricity within Nepal 45. The WBG’s major focus during the CPS will be on increasing Nepal’s energy supply. Ongoing and new projects, further described below, will contribute to on-grid generation capacity (both rehabilitated and new), power imports from India to address the winter load-shedding, and improvements to the distribution system over the medium-term. Over the long-term and beyond the CPS period, the WBG will focus on developing Nepal’s hydropower with the goal to develop markets for power exports. While progress has been elusive in the past, an April 2013 Memorandum of Understanding agreed by seven major political parties provided a first turning point in Nepal’s quest to develop an export-oriented hydropower sector (see Box 2). 46. To lay the foundation for a more long-term engagement on hydropower, the WBG will also provide support to improve the governance, operational efficiency and financial performance of the energy sector. Focus areas are expected to include articulating a corporate development plan for the NEA, to restructure its operations and reduce its financial losses (currently about Nepalese Rupee (NPR) 2 per unit sold, or $55-93 million per year over 2009-12); improving sector financing through improving operational efficiency, lowering costs and reforming the tariff structure (inter alia to pass inflation and foreign exchange risks to the consumer, achieve cost recovery, and achieve a positive return on NEA’s assets); enhancing the legal framework for public and private investment in electricity generation and transmission, including particularly to address local social and livelihood impacts, to provide needed credit enhancements, and to guarantee government obligations under power purchase agreements (PPAs) where requested; initiating actions for establishing an independent power regulator; developing a power trading strategy to ensure that electricity generated in Nepal can be evacuated (ultimately) to a regional power grid; and working with the private sector to enhance the sustainability of hydropower projects by building capacity to assess and mitigate environmental and social impacts. Given the fact that the sector reform agenda will involve complex change across many government entities over a number of years, a Development Policy Operation (DPO) will be the Bank’s primary instrument of support to the 5 A 2009 study on poverty and conflict in Nepal noted that the intensity of conflict between 1996 and 2006 was less in districts with higher road densities. 15 country in these areas. The proposed DPO would be linked with technical assistance provided under ongoing and new investment projects that will focus on improving the capacity of key actors, including both NEA (which is mandated to develop generation projects below 500MW) and the Investment Board Nepal (which is mandated to develop projects of 500MW or more). Box 2: The WBG’s renewed energy agenda for Nepal Given a mixed history of supporting hydroelectric power generation in Nepal, the Bank Group’s renewed efforts in this sector remain risky, but there have been positive developments over the past years: • Investment Board Nepal: In September 2011, the first Constituent Assembly passed an act to create the Investment Board Nepal (IBN) as a central agency to mobilize private-public partnerships in infrastructure. The Investment Board, chaired by the Prime Minister, was created to approve infrastructure investments above NPR 10 billion, including hydropower projects with a capacity greater than 500 MW. The WBG jointly with the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development (DFID) are currently supporting the Investment Board, which received technical and institutional support by IFC in the initial years, in carrying out due diligence for reviewing the feasibility of four large-scale (600-900MW) hydropower generation projects. • Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) among political parties: In April 2013, through the coordination of the Federation of Nepalese Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FNCCI), seven major political parties signed a MoU agreeing on the development of an export-oriented hydropower sector. • Transmission master plan: With IDA support, NEA is preparing a transmission system master plan systematically to address key transmission bottlenecks in a coordinated manner, in consultation with development partners. • Nepal-India power trading: The WBG and other donors are facilitating power-sharing discussions between Nepal, India and Bangladesh, while Indian hydropower developers interested in developing projects in Nepal are engaging Indian off-takers bilaterally to secure Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) to anchor their projects. In addition, several WBG-supported investments are underway to put in place the necessary conditions for our engagement: • Nepal-India transmission: The ongoing IDA supported Nepal-India Electricity Transmission and Trade Project finances construction of a cross-border transmission line, and associated lines within Nepal will provide the backbone for hydropower development. This regional project will allow Nepal to import power from India to reduce winter load-shedding while also enabling Nepal to sell surplus energy to India in the future, thus making Nepal’s hydropower development financially viable. • Public-Private Partnership (PPP) experience: The proposed IDA-IFC Kabeli-A hydropower project provides government agencies with an initial experience in processing PPP hydropower projects. On this basis, IDA and IFC are jointly working for hydropower development, as most projects at an advanced stage are driven by private sector developers. • Infraventures: Nepal continues to be an important target market given the huge potential to do transformative projects across various infrastructure sectors. IFC and the World Bank are working closely to align on strategic priorities in Nepal, especially in the hydropower sector and have so far invested in Upper Trishuli and Upper Marsyangdi. 47. IDA, IFC and MIGA can play important complementary roles in developing Nepal’s power sector. With sustained technical assistance from both IDA and IFC, NEA and the IBN are already working with various sponsors to develop a number of large-scale hydropower projects for both domestic and export markets. IFC has received signed mandates to invest in several private projects, while IDA has been requested to provide financing for public projects or to guarantee the PPAs or termination risks for several private ones. Some of these projects are now at an advanced stage of development. In addition, IDA is engaged in building out Nepal’s transmission back-bone, including interconnections with India, so that generated electricity can be effectively evacuated to domestic and export markets, thus supporting growth both in domestic industry and in export earnings and tax revenues. Going forward, IDA is helping NEA to improve its operational 16 efficiency, systems planning, project preparation and implementation, and also helping the government to make the tariff and institutional reforms needed to improve operational efficiency. At the same time, IFC is helping to streamline hydropower licensing procedures (using checklists, screening criteria, and standard concession agreements) to improve the sustainability of hydropower projects by addressing key environmental and social issues and to undertake a comprehensive review of existing laws, acts and regulations to identify constraints and reform recommendations with a view to remove impediments to private investment. As viable projects materialize, the WBG will utilize all available instruments, including IDA and IFC investments and IDA and MIGA guarantees. IFC is helping in developing enhanced financing options for hydropower projects in Nepal by working with government to issue local currency bonds and by working towards providing credit lines to Nepalese banks for small hydropower development, among other initiatives. In addition to financing options, IFC plans to provide technical assistance that will include training programs and workshops meant for capacity building of financial intermediaries and project developers, as well as awareness-building of all other relevant stakeholders. Utilizing joint resources of IDA, IFC and MIGA helps to reduce risk, create bankable projects and mobilize private sector investments, resulting in more sustainable flow of investments. 48. In association with large-scale electricity generation and transmission, the WBG will also continue efforts to expand access to electricity in rural areas, through grid extension and off-grid renewable technologies. In the short-run, to reduce acute load-shedding in urban areas, the WBG is helping to develop a grid-connected solar power generation system to improve supply- and demand-side efficiency; and to increase power imports through rehabilitating existing small-scale cross-border links in local areas. In addition, the WBG will expand its support to mini- and micro- hydropower development, as well as the use and development of Solar Home Systems (SHS), which today provide about 300,000 rural households with access to electricity and also support various small businesses and other income-generation activities. The WBG will also continue to support other off-grid technologies with a direct impact on the livelihoods of the poor, including cook stoves and biogas. IDA and IFC will work with the private sector to identify and scale-up commercially- viable business models to extend access to clean, sustainable and affordable energy solutions to the underserved. Outcome 1.2: Improved transportation connectivity, internally and with India 49. The WBG will support transport connectivity, with a focus on rural transport and connectivity to India, to improve access to markets for the poor and to facilitate national and regional integration. The Bank will continue to support the Government’s all-weather upgrading and maintenance efforts for both national and rural roads, with a special focus on improving planning and maintenance and building institutional capacities. Going beyond the CPS period, the Bank will also identify more strategic solutions to Nepal’s key transportation problems, such as the “Fast Track” link between Kathmandu and the Terai. While this project would provide a clear economic value, 6 many of the engineering works required to build the Fast Track are unprecedented for Nepal (e.g., complex tunneling). After construction (which could take a decade), the Fast Track would become a strategically-important national infrastructure lifeline and will warrant a rigorous approach to asset management that is also unprecedented in Nepal’s roads sub-sector. Similar to its 6 At present goods and large passenger transport vehicles between Kathmandu and India make a 250 km detour. A 2008 feasibility study for a ‘fast track’ alternative alignment estimated potential time savings of 4-5 hours and potential fuel savings on the order of NPR 3,000 (US$ 30) per one-way trip for a heavy truck. Preliminary economic analysis conducted in 2008 forecasted Economic Rates of Return in excess of 30% and a fuel savings of approximately 32 million liters of fuel during the first year of operations 17 approach in the energy sector, the WBG will therefore use a holistic approach through studies, technical assistance and eventual investment financing – in partnership with other development partners – for building the Fast Track. A Strategic Roads Network Operation prior to the Fast Track will provide another stepping stone to funding detailed designs and institutional mobilization. In addition, the WBG will build on successful partnerships in the trail bridges sub-sector to continue supporting modes of connectivity beyond roads. An ongoing rural transport project is expanding road access to rural areas. A complementary project during the CPS period and co-financed with DFID would finance the local roads bridges within the project area. Finally, at the regional level, the WBG will continue to support efforts aimed at removing infrastructure, policy, procedural and institutional barriers to trade, and support country agreements to facilitate trade and transit between Nepal and India as well as Bangladesh. 50. The WBG will also help to strengthen key institutions in the transport sector, which remains hampered by overlapping institutional roles and mandates. Local entities have low levels of capacity and lack accountability, which, according to a 2011 Roads Sector Public Expenditure Review, resulted in roughly 30 percent of expenditure transfers by the Government to local government-led transport sector investments triggering some form of audit observation from the Auditor General. The same study found that roughly 70 percent of spending in the transport sector occurs in the last trimester of each year and that the budgeting, planning, procurement, and contract management processes still need to work more smoothly. In the case of urban transport, there are currently four different line ministries and roughly 23 different departments, divisions, or local government bodies that have jurisdiction over issues relating to urban transportation in the Kathmandu valley. IDA will support efforts to strengthen existing or new public sector institutions that are currently struggling to discharge their functions in the transport sector. 51. The WBG will also aim to improve the maintenance, safety and quality of transport infrastructure and services. IDA will seek to forge new partnerships and exploit opportunities for investments with local and national institutions to support improved quality and safety of urban transport systems and other types of transport services. As part of an on-going rural transport project the Bank will assess and potentially pursue opportunities of linking rural transport infrastructure with major rural markets in order to improve the value chain of rural products including agriculture produce. IFC is supporting airline expansion in the country, particularly through its investment in Buddha Air. In response to government’s interest and request for support, IFC could provide PPP transaction advisory support to strengthen aviation safety through capacity building of aviation operators. IFC will seek to identify potential opportunities for collaborating in the aviation and roads sub-sectors. The WBG will also seek to catalyze development partner support for critically- important infrastructure investments that exceed the financial capacity of any one organization. Outcome 1.3: Improved environment for private sector investment, including increased financial sector stability 52. The WBG will continue to provide both long-term and short-term support to efforts to improve the business environment, with a view to removing binding constraints and catalyzing private investments. The IFC’s investment and advisory services will continue to facilitate new private investments and reduce the barriers to investment in key priority sectors, including tourism, agriculture, and infrastructure (especially hydropower). IFC will also continue to engage in providing advice to the Government on forming PPPs to speed up the development of much needed infrastructure. In addition, IFC provides advice to SMEs and farmers to increase revenues and expand access to markets by strengthening their management capacity (financial literacy, business 18 acumen) and technical skills (farmer productivity). Through the South Asia Regional Integration in Trade and Investment (SARTI) project, IFC also aims to reduce time and cost burdens to trade and investment in Nepal (as well as Bangladesh and western India). 53. At the same time, WBG support to the financial sector will aim to address economic risks stemming from the sector’s rapid expansion and associated distress in the banking sector. To address financial-sector vulnerabilities, the Bank has been providing technical assistance in the areas of crisis management, bank resolution and deposit insurance. A DPO, developed closely with DFID and the IMF, helped to address some of the root causes of the sector’s difficulties. A follow- up DPO – building on a joint WBG-IMF Financial Sector Assessment Program as well as a DFID- supported banking sector diagnostic – will aim to consolidate banking sector stability and pave the way for developing a more robust and inclusive financial sector. At the same time, IFC has been supporting increased access to finance through investments in microfinance and wholesale institutions. It has been engaging with a wholesale microfinance lender and one of the most prominent MFIs, providing technical assistance on risk management and micro-insurance. IFC will also explore the possibility of engaging with the credit bureau to help accommodate microfinance institutions for credit reporting. This intervention is expected to reduce risk of over-indebtedness emanating from multiple lending. IFC will also continue to support trade finance in several commercial banks, and its financial markets advisory practice will maintain its focus on financial infrastructure, sustainable energy financing (SEF), SME lending, microfinance, credit information bureaux, secured transaction registries, e-payment and support to long-term lending institutions. In addition, IFC is working with local financial institutions to support SMEs and to improve their risk management framework. 54. In addition, the WBG will continue to provide both long-term and short-term engagements in priority sectors to address binding constraints and catalyze private investments. The IFC’s investment and advisory services will continue to facilitate new private investments and reduce the barriers to investment in key priority sectors including tourism, agriculture, finance, and infrastructure (especially hydropower). IFC will continue to engage in providing advice to the Government on forming public private partnerships to speed up the development of much needed infrastructure. In addition, IFC provides advice to SMEs and farmers to increase revenues and expand access to markets by strengthening their management capacity (financial literacy, business acumen) and technical skills (farmer productivity). Pillar 2: Increasing Inclusive Growth and Opportunities for Shared Prosperity Pillar 2: Increasing inclusive growth and opportunities for shared prosperity Outcome 2.1: Increased agricultural productivity and commercialization Outcome 2.2: More equitable access to education and skills development, of higher quality and relevance Outcome 2.3: Improved health and nutrition services, particularly for the poor and disadvantaged Outcome 2.4: More efficient and transparent social safety net system 55. This pillar will focus on increasing inclusive growth and providing historically- disadvantaged Nepalis with opportunities to improve their resilience and increase their prosperity. As noted above, the rural economy remains a primary battlefield for reducing extreme poverty and increasing shared prosperity in Nepal. In addition, having made strong progress in investing in its human capital base, the WBG will support Nepal to make the most of its human potential by helping to expand access to post-basic education and health and risk mitigation strategies for all, particularly for the most disadvantaged and vulnerable groups. Further, it will support strengthening the quality of those services including potentially through supporting fiscal 19 transfers from the central to the local level and supporting decentralization. Finally, it will support building skills so that Nepalis can capitalize on economic opportunities. Outcome 2.1: Increased agricultural productivity and commercialization 56. The WBG will continue to help improve agricultural productivity with a stronger focus on commercialization. Given the importance of agriculture to household incomes, ongoing IDA support aims to shift agriculture from low-value food crops, such as cereals, which still dominate 80 percent of cultivated land, toward higher-value crops, which have a higher potential to raise farmers’ incomes. A particular focus will be on integrating small holders in value-chains for non-traditional higher value commodities. In addition, the Bank will continue to support expanded crop production through improving production inputs and expanding or rehabilitating irrigation schemes: currently, only about 28 percent of Nepal’s arable land is irrigated, and most irrigation systems are farmer- managed and in dire need of modernization and rehabilitation. Embedded in these projects are agricultural components, which will help to provide improved seeds and technology to make efficient use of water resources. Other ongoing projects support activities aimed at addressing the impact of climate change on agriculture production. An ongoing rural growth study will aim to better understand the economic and structural transformations underway in rural Nepal, the key drivers of poverty reduction in these areas (including the role of remittances), and the major constraints to further progress. 57. Another focus will be on agriculture commercialization and agribusiness. The focus will be on the role of the private sector. IFC through technical assistance and capacity building aims to promote growth of the local private sector and deliver a set of coordinated interventions to build institutional capacity; strengthen financial literacy, business acumen and technical skills; and create awareness in the marketplace by: (i) designing and implementing capacity-building interventions for agribusinesses, dealers, retailers and farmers in the sugarcane subsector to help them address climate change and production risks (such as through the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience); (ii) providing technical assistance on post-harvest handling and crop waste reduction; and working with private companies, financial institutions and government to establish a warehouse receipt financing model; and (iii) helping agribusiness companies to systematically evaluate energy supply options and develop renewable energy projects to establish a more reliable or cost effective energy supply for own use and/or export to the grid. In order to stimulate investment in agribusiness, IFC is currently exploring setting up an agri-business credit line/risk-sharing facility with private financial institutions. IFC is also exploring opportunities in direct investment in agri-processing companies. Outcome 2.2: More equitable access to education and skills development, of improved quality and relevance 58. The WBG will shift its ongoing engagement in the education sector toward a stronger focus on equalizing access, improving quality and providing skills for jobs. The need to refocus the WBG’s engagement in Nepal is most evident in the education sector. IDA currently supports all levels of education – primary, secondary, tertiary and vocational training –through three distinct projects. One project includes IDA financing of an education SWAp, the School Sector Reform Program (SSRP), which is the Government’s program to support equitable access to basic education and is supported by 15 development partners. Once SSRP closes, IDA will move away from its current role as financier and administrator toward providing the global knowledge needed to increase education quality and more inclusiveness, especially for the poor. 20 59. As the Bank moves away from financing in basic education, it will provide continued support in secondary and higher education. As mentioned above, given higher wage levels for post-primary levels of education, providing Nepalis with higher levels of education will help reduce extreme poverty and increase shared prosperity. The WBG comparative advantage lies therefore in making sure youths are provided with the skills that would allow them to reach for higher earning jobs, either at home or abroad. Learning from the implementation of the ongoing vocational education and training project, the WBG will sharpen its focus on skills development in both the formal and informal sector to enhance the productivity of migrant workers. It will also pay special attention to safety and rights issues of migrants and to the role of financial intermediaries in promoting more efficient remittance transfers. In addition, the WBG will support major institutional reforms to Nepal’s higher education system with the aim to improve quality and relevance of the skills acquired by graduates to better respond to market needs. Outcome 2.3: Improved health and nutrition services, particularly for the poor and disadvantaged 60. Within the health sector, WBG engagement will focus on supporting expanding access to and quality of services. IDA, along with other developmental partners, is providing ongoing support through a health SWAp. Continued WBG support will combine finance with knowledge to improve the effectiveness, efficiency and quality of health services (both public and private) and improve its ability to serve the poor. One key challenge is to protect the poor against the potentially catastrophic impact of high out-of-pocket expenditure for health care. This could be achieved through targeting demand and supply side financing schemes for the poor and testing options for moving towards a national health-insurance scheme. The WBG will also continue to support interventions outside the health sector with impact on health outcomes, e.g., interventions to reduce tobacco use, improve road safety, and provide water and sanitation in rural areas. Ongoing projects focusing on nutrition and food security, complemented with expanded nutrition services within the water and education sectors and efforts to incentivize food fortification by the private sector, will continue to be the main instruments for tackling childhood malnutrition and hunger. A new rural water supply and sanitation project will aim at continuing to expand water coverage, but with an emphasis on less well-served districts to better target the poor; reduce Nepal’s significant sanitation gap by scaling-up sanitation beyond the boundaries of the project’s water supply schemes; and strengthen institutional support mechanisms in selected districts to enhance sustainability. Outcome 2.4: More efficient and transparent social safety net system 61. IDA financing will support the Government in consolidating its safety net program by strengthening the building blocks of its social protection program, including management information and payment systems. Over this CPS period, the WBG will focus on helping the Government to consolidate its social protection portfolio and improve the efficiency of social spending. In support of this objective, two recent WBG projects have contributed to the development of a management information system and piloted electronic payments through branchless banking, in several districts. Expanding these systems to other districts and programs, while supporting institutional strengthening, will help enhance the Government’s ability to provide payments more efficiently and transparently on the ground, track expenditures, identify leakages and eventually consolidate overlapping programs. In parallel, the WBG will invest in broader policy dialogue with key ministries to improve efficiency, transparency, and sustainability of social protection expenditures. 21 62. Beyond safety nets, the ongoing IDA-financed Poverty Alleviation Fund (PAF) focuses on helping excluded communities to be empowered, to build capacity and infrastructure, develop skills and provide income support. A 2013 evaluation by the Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) of WBG assistance to low-income Fragile and Conflict-affected States found that community-driven development in Nepal has been a useful vehicle for short-term assistance to local communities. Yet the same report also claimed that, in the absence of a mechanism to ensure sustainability, their long-term viability remains a concern. Many of the PAF-supported communities have already formed networks or cooperatives and are working on a sustainable basis. Others have turned PAF funds into productive income/infrastructure activities that generate sufficient revenue for their maintenance. The WBG’s main focus over this CPS period will be to find more sustainable ways of funding, including by government, for community support to the poorest. Foundations and Cross-Cutting Dimensions 63. The WGB will continue to provide support to building the key foundations to strengthen public sector capacity, governance and public expenditure management. Whereas Nepal matches or exceeds its peers on many development indicators, it regularly underperforms on indicators measuring the quality of governance. The WBG is well-positioned to improve public sector capacity and governance through institution-building within its sectoral activities and also, in a more cross-cutting way, through supporting improved PFM and increased transparency and accountability in service delivery. 64. The WBG will continue to provide support to strengthen Nepal’s public financial management (PFM) with the aim of making sure public expenditure is managed efficiently and effectively. While Nepal’s PFM framework is well designed overall, there is still a significant gap between intention and implementation. As a result, the formal budget preparation and execution processes do not translate into effective spending. There is need to strengthen the existing foundations towards an improved and effective PFM system, both upstream, downstream and through external scrutiny of the budget cycle. The Bank will continue to provide this support through a PFM Multi-Donor Trust Fund. Key areas to be addressed in the CPS period include: (i) upstream annual program budgeting, to ensure that development budgets are based on completed sector work plans; (ii) downstream reporting on budget utilization that is transparent, timely and reliable through the use of the treasury single account and upgrading of the Financial Management Information Systems (FMIS); (iii) introduction of an internal audit function to enhance current budget controls; (iv) implementation of key audit recommendations to improve the system; and (v) incremental strengthening of budgetary processes, openness and public awareness to build the foundations for heightened accountability. 65. In addition, the WBG will continue to lead development partners in supporting government efforts to continuously improve its public procurement system. Since the Country Procurement Assessment Review (CPAR) carried out in 2002, the Bank has been closely engaged in sector dialogue and provided technical and financial support to implement CPAR reform measures, including the 2007 Public Procurement Act. The Bank remains committed to continue its dialogue on public procurement reform in coordination with other development partners, with the aim of harmonizing public procurement practices and developing the overall procurement capacity at regulatory, implementation and at service provider (private sector) levels. Given its cross-cutting dimensions, improvement in the performance of the public procurement system will contribute to achieving development outcomes in the sectors. In order to further this objective, the Bank, in close coordination with the Asian Development Bank (ADB), is already supporting the preparation of the Public Procurement Strategic Framework, Phase II. The Government may use this framework for 22 mobilizing external support for improving procurement performance through further reforms, including the wider enforcement of electronic Government procurement and much-needed procurement capacity building. 66. The Bank will also continue to support government efforts to strengthen the demand- side of the public expenditure process through social accountability measures. The Bank’s main mutually-reinforcing activities would include: (i) disclosing budget information that is understood by the common person through the preparation of a citizens’ pre- and post-budget and the use of national media to expand awareness; (ii) supporting agencies in increasing compliance through greater use of good governance legislation, citizens’ engagement platforms and strengthened information disclosure legislation; and (iii) raising community-level citizen awareness of entitlements. Grievance redress systems are being elaborated in the roads sector and such local-level systems are currently being assessed through demand-side public expenditure tracking survey research on social security entitlements. Plans are underway to centralize bidding processes; and various measures have been taken to monitor financial probity. The Bank is well placed to contribute to addressing these challenges through: (i) supporting the implementation and assessment of grievance redress mechanisms in its portfolio and beyond; (ii) enabling the operationalization of a central bidding procurement process; (iii) strengthening the monitoring and mitigation of risks; and (iv) supporting more structured and intensive civil society capacity at the national and community level on budget accountability, transparency and social inclusion. 67. IFC will supplement the focus on citizens’ engagement by continuing to improve the dialogue between the private and the public spheres. IFC is supporting the Nepal Business Forum (NBF), a public-private dialogue platform established by the Government in 2010, which brings together over 40 government and private sector agencies to dialogue and review government policy and regulation towards the private sector, with the aim of improving the effectiveness and accountability of private sector policy making, and regulatory enforcement. Given the political uncertainty and civil unrest, the NBF has been an important tool in helping the country to refocus on economic growth by facilitating constructive dialogue on constraints to investment, trade and export, and finance and credit. In March 2014, IFC through the NBF, facilitated a high level hydropower dialogue, which helped create awareness and obtained buy-in for hydropower development action plan among key stakeholders. The event underscored the demand for regional power integration, as confirmed by the declaration by the power secretaries of India, Nepal, Bangladesh and the state of Bihar. 68. Gender will continue to remain a cross-cutting dimension of the Nepal program, and it will continue to be mainstreamed across the portfolio. The Bank’s strategies over recent years had a strong gender focus, and gender issues are effectively mainstreamed across the portfolio. In recent years, the Bank collaborated with ADB and the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID) on a seminal Gender and Social Exclusion Assessment, which is helping to shape government and donor policies on gender and social inclusion. A second volume (2013) provides practical guidance on how to mainstream gender equality and social inclusion in seven key service-delivery sectors, including agriculture, education, forestry, health, irrigation, rural infrastructure (with emphasis on roads), and rural and urban water supply and sanitation. 69. Climate change and risks from natural disaster will also continue to be addressed in a cross-cutting manner. IDA and IFC together with other development partners (including ADB, DFID, Denmark, United States) will continue to support Nepal in implementing climate investment fund programs, such as the Scaling-up Renewable Energy Program and the Pilot Program for 23 Climate Resilience. IDA will continue to mainstream contingent emergency response components across its portfolio, which allows government to request the reallocation of project funds to support response and reconstruction in the case of an adverse natural event. C. Implementing the FY14-FY18 Strategy 70. Implementation of the strategy will make optimal use of the joint comparative advantage of the WBG and the division of labor between IFC, MIGA and IDA. As already outlined above, the WBG will continue to build on its close collaboration in Nepal. IFC and IDA, which also share the same office in Kathmandu, will continue to work closely across all CPS engagement areas, including through various joint projects in energy, agriculture, finance and other potentially-emerging areas such as tourism. The focus of IFC will continue to be to incentivize private investment, while IDA will continue to work closely with government on the necessary policy reforms and the optimal use of public investment. The World Bank Group Lending Program 71. Implementation of the proposed strategy will require consolidation of the IDA program. The current portfolio consists of 17 projects with net commitments of $1.45 billion, and three regional projects with net commitments to Nepal of about $240 million. The average project size is $86 million, near the Bank-wide IDA average of about $87 million. Cumulative disburse- ments as of January 31, 2014, were $633 million (about 46 percent of net commitments) for the national and about $15 million (about 6 percent of net commitments) for the regional projects. Nepal’s many needs for Bank support after the conflict initially resulted in a proliferation of small projects. While many of those projects were justified at the time, their proliferation created high transactions costs, prevented the use of resources for other purposes, and diverted the focus away from potentially transformative engagements. 72. Under IDA16 (FY12-14), Nepal’s total IDA allocation was about $630 million, and similar indicative financing levels are expected for IDA17 (FY15-17). 7 To implement the proposed strategy, the Bank together with the Government is aiming to prioritize its engagement and move to a more limited number of larger projects and programs. This will allow for more attention to details through programmatic approaches, where technical assistance, knowledge provision, and policy reforms are linked to or come ahead of any large investments. As noted above, the focus will be on sectors and areas where the Bank has the biggest comparative advantage and can achieve the greatest impact with respect to reducing poverty and enhancing shared prosperity. 7 The actual allocation will depend on the total IDA resources available; Nepal’s performance rating, gross national income per capita, and population; the terms of IDA assistance (grants/credits) and the allocation deductions associated with Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) annual debt service foregone; the performance, other allocation parameters, and IDA assistance terms for other IDA borrowers; and the number of IDA-eligible countries. 24 Table 2: IDA lending program FY14-18 Fiscal Year Lending Indicative IDA ($ m) 2014 Strengthening the National Rural Transport Program 100 Irrigation and Water Resource Management AF 50 Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Project 72 Others (Trust Funds): • Scaling-up Renewable Energy (SREP) – Biogas 2015 8 Higher Education Reform Project Total: Second Financial Sector Development Policy Credit 200-300 Energy Sector Development Policy Credit Grid Solar and Energy Efficiency Project Kabeli A Hydroelectric Project Technical Assistance for Preparation of Hydropower Project and Sector Reform Others (Trust Funds): • ESMAP – Wind Energy Resource Mapping 2016 Third Health SWAp (Health, Nutrition & Population - HNP) Total: Second Energy Sector Development Policy Credit 200-300 Hydropower Project or IDA Partial Risk Guarantee (PRG) Social Safety Nets Systems Building Project Strategic Roads Network Project Others (Trust Funds): • Public Procurement Performance Improvement Project 2017 Hydropower Project or IDA PRG Total: Skills Development 200-300 Local Roads Bridges 2018 Hydropower Project or IDA PRG Total: Nepal Fast Track 200-300 73. To support an agenda with a potentially high impact on reducing extreme poverty and increasing shared prosperity, the Bank will make use of all available instruments. The Bank will continue to utilize instruments with the greatest potential for impact. A first DPO for the financial sector helped to initiate important policies and reform, and will be followed by a second and possibly a third in a series. An energy DPO will enable the Bank to support the governance reforms that the sector urgently needs to make headway on a sustainable and potentially trans- formative hydropower agenda. While Nepal’s experience with Program-for-Results (PforR) implementation has so far revealed its challenges in a low capacity context, similar but more flexible approaches (for example the use of disbursement linked indicators in the education sector) show promise. Given the large investment needs in energy and other sectors, the WBG will also seek to develop financing partnerships with other donors, development banks, and the private sector; explore opportunities to use the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) enclave financing; and make use of guarantees from IDA, MIGA or even potentially IBRD to crowd-in additional financing. Additional financing will continue to be a preferred option for those parts of the portfolio that are showing scalable results. 74. IFC’s committed investment portfolio in Nepal stood at $40 million as of March 31, 2014, consisting of power, transport, banking, microfinance, tourism, and trade finance lines. IFC invested in 14 projects (for $57 million in total) over the last ISN period (FY12 and FY13) and six projects (for around $4 million in total) in FY14 (as of March 31, 2014). On the advisory services side, IFC is engaged in a range of areas including investment climate, access to finance and 8 Should the commitments proposed for FY15 be high relative to actual allocations, there may be scope to accommodate these higher levels through front-loading from FY16 and FY16. 25 sustainable business advisory. 9 Besides, there is also a pipeline of advisory projects in the PPP transaction space. IFC’s advisory services currently have an active portfolio of $12.7 million across 12 projects in Nepal. 75. Most recently, IFC’s investments include hydropower investments, an airline expansion, and credit for trade financing. That said, investments in Nepal, including from IFC, are constrained by a challenging regulatory and legal framework for foreign investment, poor governance and accounting practices, vulnerability of the domestic banking sector together with lack of a swap market for the Nepali rupee, poor implementation of property rights, and heightened political uncertainty. In addition, the country’s logistical limitations, absence of supporting infrastructure and the relatively smaller size of projects constrain investments, especially in the manufacturing sector. Domestic supply side constraints, especially the lack of reliable power supply and high cost of credit, have also accentuated the sluggishness in private investment. Regulatory constraints such as inadequacy or absence of competitive bidding to award infrastructure projects and the lack of an adequate framework and limited capacity to conceive, implement and monitor PPPs have limited IFC’s PPP transaction advisory work in Nepal. 76. IFC’s investment instruments currently include senior and subordinated loans, long and short-term credit lines, trade finance lines and guarantees, and minority equity stake in companies – all in hard currencies. IFC’s additionality in Nepal comes through providing longer- term financing than is available in the market, patient equity capital, crisis response products such as liquidity facilities, global and regional expertise and experience, and technical assistance to enhance areas such as corporate governance and management of environmental and social risks. IFC aims to continue to respond to client needs through facilities such as SME Venture Fund, Infraventures, transaction advice for PPPs, and risk-sharing facilities (RSF). As local currency financing is essential for companies and sectors that generate local currency revenues, including large scale infrastructure hydropower-projects, IFC plans to continue its effort in partnership with IDA, with the Government to create such instruments. 77. As of March 31 2014, MIGA has no exposure in Nepal. Recently cancelled guarantees were in the hydropower sector. MIGA therefore has room to expand the provision of political risk guarantees in the country. Like IFC, MIGA are constrained by a challenging legal framework for foreign investment, poor governance and accounting practices, absence of competitive bidding to award infrastructure projects and the lack of an adequate framework and limited capacity to support PPPs. 78. Trust Funds (TFs) have gradually become an important supplement to the Nepal program. The current IDA TF portfolio consists of a total commitment of over $225 million. Many TFs are well integrated into the country program through analytic and advisory activities (AAA), co- financed operations and capacity-building activities. Major TFs include the Global Program for Education, supporting the School Sector Reform Program; the Global Agriculture and Food Security Program (GAFSP); the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR); a multi-donor financed PFM TF; the State and Peace Building Fund; and the Japan Social Development Fund (JSDF). At the same time, the broader TF portfolio beyond the core TFs is fragmented and lacking ownership: there are 65 smaller activities, of which four in five are Bank-executed, undermining aid-effectiveness principles of building capacity and enhancing ownership in recipient countries. In addition, the 9 To strengthen impact and client focus, from FY15 some IFC advisory services will be delivered through joint World Bank Group Global Practices, while other will be more closely aligned with IFC’s industry departments. 26 Bank’s TF portfolio comprises several global programs without a clear benefit for Nepal. Going forward, the Bank will reduce the number of TFs and allow new financing only in areas clearly aligned with the CPS. IFC works with various donors on its advisory projects such as climate resilience/mitigation, access to finance, investment climate reform and with lending agencies such as IDA and ADB for infrastructure and the financial sector projects. The World Bank Group Knowledge Program 79. The WBG will strive to remain the leading global knowledge provider to Nepal. A key focus of this strategy is to make sure the WBG continues to provide the kind of global knowledge that Nepal needs to bring its economy to a higher growth trajectory, to end extreme poverty and to increase the prosperity of the bottom 40 percent. Design of this strategy has benefitted from various knowledge products by the WBG, in particular country diagnostics such as the recent policy notes for the new government. Going forward, the WBG will focus on three types of knowledge interventions as presented in Table 3 below: (i) advocacy, including diagnostics about future opportunities beyond the CPS period; (ii) quality analysis to inform ongoing or planned interventions; (iii) advice to government based on specific requests. Table 3: Proposed AAA and TA (FY14-18) FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 Advocacy Poverty and shared prosperity Non-lending Technical Assistance (NLTA) Social protection CEM/Growth study Nutrition policy Mapping local service delivery Competitive industries diagnostic Education PETS Federalism Quality Hydropower dialogue, studies and TA Fast Track study and TA Financial sector strategy TA Public Financial Management TA Agriculture growth PEFA Education sector review Skills development study Advice Policy notes Economic updates National risk assessment ROSC Governance reform Governance reform 80. The Bank’s knowledge program during the CPS period will be fully aligned with the priorities set out in the CPS. Within the typology introduced above, the WBG’s knowledge advocacy will build on the recent policy notes for the new government, with a focus on the three “Is” needed for Nepal to reach higher growth levels: investment, infrastructure and inclusion. Building on this work, the WBG will carry-out a Country Economic Memorandum to analyze 27 Nepal’s key drivers of growth in more detail, with a potential focus on exports, migration/ remittances, hydropower and public investments. Knowledge to provide the basis for ongoing or planned interventions will concentrate on the selective engagement areas, including hydropower, transport, skills development and social protection. IDA and IFC will continue to provide advice to the Government, including the Investment Board, on potential PPPs for infrastructure development, through identifying strategic options for particular projects, supporting the development of feasibility studies and contract documents, and enhancing the capacity to take potential projects to the market. Finally, the WBG will continue to provide just-in time responses to government demands. Based on the progress in drafting the new constitution, an important research area will likely include federalism and how to prepare for and roll-out decentralization. 81. IFC’s advisory services will continue to facilitate new private investments and reduce the barriers of investment in key priority sectors including tourism, agriculture, finance and infrastructure (especially hydropower). In response to government’s interest and request for support, IFC could provide advice on forming public private partnerships (PPP) to speed up the development of much needed infrastructure. IFC is supporting the Government of Nepal (GoN) with PPP transaction advisory to assist in evaluating its priority projects through a Memorandum of Understanding with the Investment Board of Nepal. Under this MoU, IFC will provide support in the development of feasibility studies, strategic options for particular projects, developments of contract documents, as well as support and capacity building to take these projects to market. Partnerships 82. In Nepal, foreign aid represents about 26 percent of the national budget. As detailed in Annex 5, total disbursements of foreign aid to Nepal amounted to about $1.04 billion in FY12. Approximately 57 percent of aid is provided by multilateral donors and about 43 percent from bilaterals. In FY12, the top five donors were the WBG, ADB, the United Nations, the United Kingdom and India. The five sectors with the most financing included education, local development, road transportation, electricity and health. A government analysis of Nepal’s development cooperation concludes that, despite the focus of Nepal’s development plan on higher growth and employment, foreign aid still predominantly supports social development (by about 40 percent), followed by infrastructure development (30 percent) and economic development (19 percent). More details are provided in Annex 5. In addition, the analysis highlights the high fragmentation of donor portfolios, including the WBG’s, and a lack of cooperation among donors. The WBG is responding to these findings by striving to reduce its portfolio size, focusing on fewer areas and building more partnerships. 83. The WBG’s engagement proposed in this CPS are based on its comparative advantage vis-à-vis other development partners. An analysis of the current structure of foreign aid in Nepal and consultations with other development partners have confirmed the WBG’s proposed engagement areas as outlined in the CPS and its complementarity with other development partners. Table 4 shows the selectivity in the CPS engagement areas vis-à-vis other development partners. For example, the WBG is already the lead donor in energy and road transportation and will continue to play this role. At the same time, ADB is the lead donor for local development, agriculture and drinking water—these are areas in which the WBG will play a supplementary but not dominant role. In areas with a very strong development partners’ presence, such as education and health, the WBG will increasingly reduce its financing obligations while continuing to provide global knowledge as required. Table 4 shows the WBG engagement areas under this CPS and prior strategies vis-à-vis engagement by other development partners. 28 Table 4: WBG engagement areas vis-à-vis development partners Level of Engagement Engagement Areas Top Five Development Partners (size of commitments) Electricity WBG, Germany, ADB, China, India Engagement Transportation WBG, ADB, Japan, India, Switzerland More Finance WBG, UK, ADB, Norway, Germany Agriculture ADB, WBG, UN, USAID, Switzerland, EU Areas CPS Education/Skills WBG, ADB, EU, Denmark, UN Health/Nutrition/Sanitation WBG, UK, USAID, Global Fund, Germany Primary/Basic Education WBG, ADB, EU, Denmark, UN Less Peace and Reconstruction WBG, EU, UN, Denmark, Germany Urban Development ADB, Germany, Japan, WBG, UN Areas WBG Prior Local Development ADB, India, UK, WBG, Finland Social Development UN, USAID, Denmark, UK, Norway, WBG 84. The WBG will continue to leverage financing by other development partners. For example, the Bank has already started to build a platform for enhanced donor coordination and financing on energy sector policy reforms, based on the planned energy DPO. A first donor coordination round included ADB, Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), Norway, DFID and the United States Millennium Challenge Corporation. Among the agreements were (i) regular meetings; (ii) collaboration to agree key policy reforms; (iii) shared financing of various studies; and (iv) possibilities of co-financing of the DPO. Further leveraging of financing is ongoing and planned across all CPS engagement areas. IV. MANAGING RISKS 85. The Bank Group’s engagement in Nepal will continue to face significant risks that could affect strategy implementation. The most significant risks are likely to arise from: (i) external and internal factors that can impact economic performance; (ii) drivers of conflict and fragility that could lead to greater political instability and possibly social unrest; (iii) poor governance, and increased corruption and fiduciary risks; (iv) low capacity for program implementation, including for assessing and mitigating environment and social impacts; (v) and reputational concerns, particularly the risk that the Bank Group fails in implementing its strategy. 86. The CPS program is deliberately designed to address and, to the extent possible, mitigate these risks. The table below highlights the specific risks within each area and the mitigation measures that are part of the CPS program. 29 Risks Mitigation measures in the CPS program Political Risks Continued political uncertainty has become the norm in The WBG will continue its active engagement with political leadership post-conflict Nepal, which has been characterized by across the political spectrum to confirm all-party support and policy frequent changes in government. The May 2012 dissolution continuity for its program, especially on risky sectors like hydropower. of the constituent assembly without agreement on a new A more active communication strategy will be pursued to share Nepal’s constitution brought additional uncertainty, but the development results with stakeholders and support an all-party establishment of an interim election government in March consensus around development needs. If requested, the Bank may also 2013 followed by successful elections for a new constituent support government work on federalism and fiscal decentralization. assembly in November 2013 provides cause for optimism. Economy (External) Nepal would likely suffer from a global economic slow- The WBG’s strong growth focus in areas such as infrastructure down in Europe and the United States, and its economic development, agriculture and private sector development is geared fortune will continue to be closely linked to India’s. It will toward helping to build a stronger and more self-reliant economy. continue to be a “price taker” in most markets, and will not be able to influence, for example, fluctuations in fuel and food prices. Fragility While Nepal’s peace process has made good progress and The WBG will continue to take into account the political economy there are signs of a relative abatement of the traditional environment in which it operates. It will strive actively to use its drivers of conflict, political instability and the rise of engagement, within its mandate, to strengthen those institutions that identity politics continue to contribute to an overall fragile create a more inclusive and stable state and society. country environment especially if Nepal moves forward in implementing decentralization. Governance Governance risks are related to (i) politics – varying power The WBG will assert its influence on the parts of the governance agenda factions within government have a detrimental impact on with a major impact on development. At the central level, work on building institutions that are oriented toward service public financial management will address both ex ante and ex post delivery for citizens; (ii) corruption—public and societal dimensions of the use of public resources. Efforts to strengthen the actors are diverting resources from the state, citizens and demand side of governance, including the inclusion of social donors; and (iii) society—continued instability and accountability tools in Bank projects, will continue. The portfolio will be deterioration in the rule of law are resulting in a lack of faith annually reviewed to ascertain progress in implementing the agreed in government. governance and anti-corruption measures. Annex 4 describes governance risks and the Bank’s approach in more detail. Capacity Project implementation capacity is weak across various A strong focus on project preparation will continue, with improved use levels of government, exacerbated by frequent staff of readiness filters. Intensive implementation support is a high priority, turnover. In education, for example, which is decentralized and the Bank will continue to highlight staff turnover issues. The Bank in Nepal, this weak capacity could hamper efforts to deliver will also continue to encourage early project restructuring, if the equitable access and higher quality education. circumstances demand it. In education, the Bank is working with local communities to build capacity and strengthen their role in managing schools. Weak capacity in assessing and mitigating social and Infrastructure activities are accompanied by additional attention to environmental risks may result in excessive delays in large safeguards during preparation and implementation support; for example, infrastructure projects, and undermine in particular efforts tothese include capacity-building support for the government in strengthen electricity supply and transport connectivity in environmental and social impact assessments and mitigation under Nepal. Kabeli A, as well as training and study tour program for key officials involved in safeguard related work. Engagement The Bank Group might fail in some of its high-risk and Lessons learned from previous engagements have informed our high-visibility endeavors, such as hydropower and fall short proposed new approach in the energy sector and other potentially high- of the goal to provide reliable and affordable electricity in risk but high-reward sectors such as transportation. Instead of focusing Nepal. on specific transactions, the WBG will take a more holistic approach that focuses on the necessary governance, policy and institutional frameworks before committing to specific transactions and projects. In addition, the WBG will further strengthening its synergies between IDA, IFC and MIGA and work closely with other development partners on major engage-ment areas. To mitigate reputational risks, the WBG will openly acknowledge the risks that are associated with its engagement in specific areas, and intensify its outreach and engagement with external stakeholders. 30 Annex 1: Results Framework for the Nepal CPS FY14-FY18 Country goals 10 + Indicative CPS Outcomes and Indicators Indicative Milestones Ongoing and Indicative Constraints/opportunities toward Targets = FY18 unless specified WBG Program progress on WBG goals 11 Pillar 1: Increasing economic growth and competitiveness Country Goals: Outcome 1.1: Increased supply of electricity, including Milestone: Generation - (i) Ongoing Financing: import, and improved access to reliable and Procurement for turbine (i) Kabeli-A Transmission Assist in economic progress and social affordable electricity within Nepal and main valve Project; development by developing modern energy rehabilitation completed by (ii) Nepal-India Electricity through the production and distribution of Indicator 1: Power Generation Capacity added or December 2014; (ii) Trade and Transmission hydropower. rehabilitated (MW) Procurement for EPC Project (IDA); Constraints/Opportunities: Local Capacity: contract for 20 MW grid- (iii) Kali Gandaki Baseline: Target: connected solar project by Hydropower Rehabilitation Lack of energy main constraint to boost 0 MW (added or 144 MW rehabilitated December 2014. Project competitiveness and growth as prerequisite rehabilitated; 2014) and at least 20 MW new Indicative Financing: for further reducing poverty. Milestone: Transmission - capacity (i) IFC Investments in Power Imports: procurement for all High levels of load-shedding and need to Andhikhola, Upper Trishuli Baseline: Target: substations, transformers rehabilitate and add new generation and Kabeli projects; 100 MW 250 MW cumulative and conductors completed capacity as well as importing power over (ii) IFC & SREP term loan power import from India by December 2014. the medium-term. for banks for small by end-2017 hydropower projects (<=10 Need for increased transmission and Milestone: Successful MW) financing; Source: Project Data (Bank and IFC) distribution both to improve access within commitment of 2 IFC (iii) Grid Solar and Energy Nepal and to link with India for import and Indicator 2: Length of transmission and distribution investments by end of Efficiency Project; eventual export of power. system added or rehabilitated CY2015. (iv) Hydropower Project or High hydropower potential, but low power Baseline: Target: PRG; generation capacity, low supply and low 0 km (new or 600 km new and (v) Scaling-up Renewable reliability. rehabilitated; 2014) rehabilitated Energy Project (TF); (v) Energy DPO; Source: GoN; Project Data (vi) Investment for the Indo Nepal Power ( IDA); (vii) IDA/IFC Kabeli A Hydropower Project. Ongoing AAA/Others: (i) Technical Assistance for hydropower project preparation and sector reform; (ii) Hydropower Dialogue. 10 Approach paper to the 2013/14-2015/16 Development Plan (translated from Nepali original). 11 End extreme poverty and promote shared prosperity. 31 Country Goals: Outcome 1.2: Improved transportation connectivity, Milestone: All road Ongoing Financing: internally and with India construction contracts (i) Bridges Improvement and Expand a sustainable and safe transport procured by 2016 Maintenance Program; network that contributes towards national Indicator 1: Number of district headquarters connected (ii) Road Sector socioeconomic integration, regional with all-season roads DP Milestone: All road up- Development Project; balance and development. grading contracts procured Baseline: Target: (iii) Nepal India Electricity by 2016 Enhance the opportunities of income and 59 65 Trade and Transmission employment by promoting domestic and Project; Source: GoN and Project Data international trade. (iv) Nepal-India Trade and Transport Project; Constraints/Opportunities: Indicator 2: Average time from ship readiness to unload (v) Rural Transport Project. to final destination for an imported container, on Kolkata- Lowest road density in South Asia with one Indicative Financing: Birgunj-Kathmandu Corridor (days) third of hill residents living more than 4 (i) Nepal Fast Track; hours from an all-season road. Baseline: Target: (ii) Strategic Road Network 22 days 18 Project. Need to expand regional transportation Ongoing AAA/Others: connectivity and trade with India and Source: Project Data (i) Fast Track Studies; potentially China. (ii) Fast Track TA. Country Goals: Outcome 1.3: Increased financial sector stability and Milestone: The Ongoing Financing: improved environment for private sector investment strengthened legal (i) IFC facilitated syndi- Ensure financial sector stability through framework for effective cation and sponsor equity balanced monetary, foreign exchange and Indicator 1: State-owned banks (NBL and RBB) bank resolution has been investment in indicative financial sector polices. recapitalized as per prudential norms and NBL privatized enacted and conflicts 500MW hydro project; Create enabling environment to improve Baseline: Target: between the NRB Act and (ii) SEDF: Investment access to banking and use of available Capital Adequacy Ratio BAFIA have been removed Climate for Industry (IFC); financial means leading to accelerated (FY13): (iii) Access to finance in economic activity. 10% CAR for each one Milestone: The legal SME Ventures and Poultry NBL: -0.49% framework for deposit (IFC); Increase foreign investment by promoting a RBB: 3.33% insurance has been enacted (iv) Financial Sector DPC; foreign investment friendly environment GoN ownership of NBL: GoN ownership of NBL: and DCGT has (iv) IFC equity and debt for the development of priority sectors. 30% 0% operationalized the Act by support to infrastructure Constraints/Opportunities: developing adequate companies, MFIs and FIs. Source: NRB and GoN operating capacity and by Indicative Financing: Instability in the financial sector, including issuing enabling regulations (i) IFC Investments in risks of insolvency of state-owned banks Indicator 2: The NRB program of special inspections has been completed and all undercapitalized institutions have and bylaws Andhikhola, Upper Trishuli and low levels of capitalization. 1, Joint Development been either resolved or are under formal Prompt Low levels of private investment, including Corrective Action. Milestone: 10 IFC led Agreement for Upper compliance cost savings in climate technical advisory and/or Marsyangdi and, and Kabeli Baseline: Target: PPP projects by 2015 power projects; interventions. Low access to finance. No inspections 50% of assets of Class A (ii) IFC’s support to tourism banks Milestone: 4 IFC led by investing in hotel projects; investment projects by (iii) Second Financial Sector Source: NRB and project data 2015 DPC. 32 Indicator 3: Amount of new private investment Ongoing AAA: mobilized in priority sectors (i) Competitive Industries Study; Baseline: 0 Target: $100m (ii) IFC Nepal Investment Source: IFC Climate Reform Program (SEDF); Indicator 4: Compliance cost savings of investment in (iii) IFC advisory with climate interventions existing clients in Nirdhan Baseline: Target: and RMDC (FM+A2F); (v) IFC payments projects; 0 $18.5m (vi) IFC PPP transaction Source: IFC advisory to GoN; (vi) Financial Sector Indicator 5: Access to finance: Improved access to Assessment Program finance - to be measured by number of beneficiaries (FSAP); (individuals and SMEs, disaggregated by gender) (vii) Financial Sector Baseline: Target: Development Strategy (TA); SMEs: 43,900 (5,268 SMEs: 51,300 (viii) AgriFinance advi-sory female owned); (6,300 female- to Nirdhan (TF); Individuals: 2.3 million owned); (ix) IFC’s South Asia (of which 1.5 million Individuals: 2.5 Regional Integration in Trade female) million (of which and Investment (SARTI) 1.6 million female) Policy Program; Source: IFC (x) IFC SME Banking and Financial Infrastructure Projects. Pillar 2: Increasing inclusive growth and opportunities for prosperity Country Goals: Outcome 2.1 Increased agricultural productivity and Milestone: Increase in Ongoing Financing: commercialization production of tomatoes and (i) Project for Agriculture To improve economic status of rural people milk by 8%, 32% Commercialization and Trade by increasing the production and Indicator 1: Productivity of priority high value respectively; FCR (PACT); productivity of agriculture and livestock commodities reduction for poultry by 0.2 (ii) Modernization of Rani, commodities in line with the requirements (2016). Jamara, Kulariya Irrigation of farmers and other stakeholders. Baseline: Target: Project (RJK); Tomato : 84t/ha 110t/ha Milestone: Increased To increase agricultural production and (iii) Nepal Zoonoses Control Milk : 978 ltr/year,cow 2,250 ltr/year,cow cropping intensity by at productivity through efficient, sustainable, Project (TF); Sugarcane: 39.5t/ha 47 t/ha (IFC) least 1.90% (2016). effective and reliable irrigation system for (iv) Irrigation and Water Poultry FCR: 2.1:1 1.9:1 (IFC) providing irrigation facility to the Resource Management Source: Project Data (PACT and NPSCSP) Milestone: Increased total agricultural land throughout the year Project (IWRMP); area irrigated to at least (v) Nepal Agriculture Food Indicator 2: Percentage increase in the cropping intensity 18,000 ha (2016). Constraints/Opportunities: Security Project (GAFSP Baseline: Target: Milestone: Increased grant); Agriculture second greatest source of (vi) Nepal Poultry Supply Cropping intensity: 1.68 2.20 volume of ginger marketed value-added to the economy; largest source Source: Project Data (IWRMP) by smallholder farmers by Chain Strengthening Project of employment, income and poverty (IFC). 33 reduction. Indicator 3: Area under irrigation farming 25mt/year (min. 0.5% per Indicative Financing: year; 2016). [Will be determined by the Baseline: Target: Only 28 percent of Nepal’s arable land is outcomes of on-going AAA] Irrigated area: 15,817 ha 26,800 ha irrigated; most irrigation systems are On-going AAA: farmer-managed and in need of Source: Project Data (IWRMP) Sources of Growth in modernization and rehabilitation Agriculture Indicator 4: Annual smallholder production marketed Indicative AAA: Need to improve agriculture productivity Baseline: Target: Strengthening the Poultry for marketable commodities and increase Ginger: 2,288 mt/year 2,324 mt/year Value Chain (IFC) integration of smallholders in value chains Milk: 5,122,260 ltr/year 5,170,520 ltr/year for non-traditional higher value Source: Project Data (PACT) commodities (market-oriented smallholder production) to improve rural incomes. Country Goals: Outcome 2.2: More equitable access to education and Milestone: 12,000 (3,000 Ongoing Financing: skills development, of higher quality and relevance per year) poor students at (i) School Sector Reform To provide opportunities for literacy and secondary and tertiary Program (SSRP; education Indicator 1: Enrollment rate (NER) in secondary continuous education to all Nepalese, levels receiving SWAp); education (by gender and income quintile) particularly to women and people from scholarships from 2014 to (ii) Pro-poor Targeted poor communities by linking literacy with Baseline: Target: 2017 Stipend Project (TF); way of life and by establishing inter- Male: 30.9% Male: 34% Source: GoN (iii) Enhanced linkages between skills and work. Female: 30.3% Female: 33.5% Vocational Education and Milestone: (by mid-term) Create skills and vocational training Poorest Quintile 12: 17.7% Poorest Quintile: 22.5% Training Project; NER opportunities to create human resource able Second Poorest: 25.9% Second Poorest: 25.9% (iv) Second Higher Male:33.5% to compete both nationally and Education Project. Source: GoN (NLSS if available) Female: 33.0% internationally. Ongoing AAA: Source: GoN Indicator 2: Number of students graduating annually (i) Nepal Education Studies; Constraints/Opportunities: from tertiary accredited institutions Milestone: 3,500 students (ii) Impact Evaluation of graduating from accredited short-term training. Low levels of access across to post-basic Baseline: 2,000 Target: 5,000 HE institutions; 15 Indicative Financing: (secondary and tertiary) education across Source: GoN institutions are accredited; (i) Higher Education income groups and gender. Considerable 45,000 persons trained Reforms Project; wage premiums for higher levels of Indicator 3: Percentage of graduates from supported (ii) Skills Development education in Nepal as well as for migrant workers. Low levels of employability and programs gainfully 13 employed at least for six months Project. after completion of the short term training Indicative AAA: need for training to be more employment (i) Evaluation of different focused. Baseline: 68% Target: 70% modalities of enhancing early Source: GoN grade reading skills; (ii) Skills Development Study; (iii) Education Sector Review. 12 NER will be based on EMIS, whereas NER of poorest Qs is based on NLSS data. 13 Gainfully employed means that a graduate earns at least NRs 27,600 (NRs 4,600 per month on average) from the job (or self-employment) that is directly related to the training received by the graduates. The graduate must have been placed in employment within two months of completion of the training. 34 Country Goals: Outcome 2.3: Improved health and nutrition Milestone: At least 500 Ongoing Financing: outcomes, particularly for the poor and disadvantaged Skill Birth Attendants (i) Second HNP and To increase equitable access and quality of training to HIV/AIDS Project (health Indicator 1: Percentage of births delivered by skilled health, education and water supply services doctors/nurse/mid-wives SWAp); birth attendants in the poorest two quintiles to all citizens, especially the marginalized completed every year (ii) Community Action for population groups. Baseline: Target: Nutrition Project. Lowest 10.7% Lowest 20% Milestone: at least 200 Ongoing AAA: To increase equitable access to and quality 2nd Lowest 23.7 % 2nd lowest 30% disadvantaged VDCs have (i) Food Security and basic- health care services. the nutrition project Nutrition Thematic Report; Source: Project Data; DHS data (ii) Capacity Assessment of Milestone: Impact Provide basic drinking water and sanitation Indicator 2: Percentage of children 6-24 months of age Community Workers to Evaluation of Health facilities to all citizens of Nepal. Reach who consume a minimum acceptable diet in the most Implement Priority Nutrition Insurance completed universal access to water and sanitation by disadvantaged VDCs of the 15 project districts Actions in Nepal; 2017. Milestone: People trained (iii) District Profiles of Baseline: Target: on improved hygiene Determinants of Malnutrition Constraints/Opportunities: 11.8 25 behavior and sanitation in Nepal; Source: Project Data practices from zero (2014) (iv) Review of Behavior Low birth attendance in health facilities/ by Indicator 3: Proportion of people in a district enrolled in to 0.3 million (2015) and Change for Infant and Young skilled personal for the poorest quintiles. health insurance 1.6 million (2017) Child Feeding (IYCF) Low progress in reducing hunger and Interventions in Nepal; improving nutrition; high prevalence of Baseline: Target: (v) Preparation of a strategic poor infant and child feeding practices. 0 10% communications plan to raise Source: Project Data awareness and increase High out-of pocket expenditures for health commitment for action and low enrollment in health insurance. Indicator 4: New households with access to safe against food and nutrition drinking water, new Village Development Committees insecurity in Nepal; 85 percent water access in rural areas and (VDCs) that are open defecation free (ODF) and new (vi) Nepal Rural Water 55 percent sanitation access. High need for Supply and Sanitation public latrines repairs of existing rural water systems. Sector-Identification of About 5.5 million people suffer from Baseline: Target: Options to Increase inadequate water service and 16 million Drinking water: 0 (2014; Drinking water: 177,000 Sustainable Access to from inadequate sanitation facilities. project area only) new households (2017) Services. Sanitation: 0 VDCs Sanitation: 240 new Indicative Financing: (2014; project area only) VDCs or about new (i) Third Rural Water Supply Public latrines: 0 (2014; 116,000 households and Sanitation Project; project area only) (2017) (ii) Third Nepal Health New public latrines: 600 Sector Program. Source: RWSSP3 project data Country Goals: Outcome 2.4: Improved social protection Milestone: Number of Ongoing Financing: Gender and Social and (i) Emergency Peace Support Indicator 1: Number of marginalized household To enable economically vulnerable and Inclusion (GESI) Strategy Project; supported with productive assets socially excluded marginalized in key ministries monitored (ii) Poverty Alleviation Fund individuals, groups and communities to for progress on gender and II Project (PAF II); 35 cope and manage risks and vulnerabilities Baseline: Target: inclusion scores. (iii) Social Safety Nets by providing them minimum level of social 416,712 14 575,000 15 Project; Milestone: GESI Analysis protection. Source: PAF-II (iv) Human Development of 3 sectors completed. and Social Protection Pilot Indicator 2: Percentage of vulnerable people benefiting Constraints/Opportunities: Milestone: 4,500 new PAF (TF) from safety net programs 16 community organizations Ongoing AAA: Continued high vulnerability of Baseline: 42% of poor receive SA by end of July 2015. (i) Human Development marginalized households, including lack of Target: 50% Note (based on NLSS data); availability of productive assets. Milestone: 6,120 new PAF Source: HDSP, SSNP and SPP (ii) Gender and Social community organizations Inclusion Assessment of Indicator 3: Number of payment accounts opened by end of July 2016. NLSS; (disaggregated by gender) (iii) Food Insecurity Baseline: 0 (male vs. female: N/A) Targeting; Target: 1 mn (of which 0.12mn female) (iv) Gender and nutrition review of public works; Source: IFC’s TA Nepal Payments Regulatory Reform (v) IFC’s TA Nepal Payments Regulatory Reform Program Indicative Financing: (i) Social Safety Nets Systems Building Project. Indicative AAA: (i) Social Protection Study; (ii) Review of public works program as a safety net; (iii) Social Protection Programmatic AAA. 14 The figure is based on PAF’s Progress Report (as of November 15, 2012) 15 This number is based on the estimates for the Second AF suggesting that PAF will cover an additional 153,000 households based on the additional financing of $80 million for the second AF of PAF II. The additional financing will provide support for about 6,000 additional community organizations. 16 Poor people who are benefiting of a reliable and robust safety nets program which has an efficient delivery mechanism 36 Annex 2: IFC Portfolio and Pipeline Summary Ongoing Non Lending Activites (IFC) Total IFC-managed funds** Business Line No of projects* (US$mn) Access to Finance 7 2.9 Investment Climate 3 7.4 Sustainable Business Advisory 2 2.4 Total Non Lending Activities 12 12.7 * Based on primary business line ** Based on product wise split for the projects *** Data as of Apr 14, 2014 37 Summary of Ongoing Non Lending Activites (IFC) Expected End Project Name Project Description Date Access to Finance Sustainable Energy Finance Improve the financial performance of Nepalese industry by reducing energy FY14 Nepal costs as well as emissions of greenhouse gases by helping 2-3 local Nepalese banks to develop a sustainable business in EE finance and promote energy efficiency within industry AS to Nirdhan Bank The overall objectives includes: (i) support Nirdhan to expand its operations FY16 and outreach to the clients; (ii) strengthen its risk management system and processes; and (iii) diversify and introduce new products and delivery mechanisms Nepal Payment Systems Engage with Nepal Rastra Bank and the Ministry of Finance in Nepal to FY14 Regulatory Reform facilitate the formulation of regulations and policies concerning National Payment Systems. The project also aims to provide capacity building for NRB so that it is able to monitor and regulate the financial sector efficiently. TA to M.Nepal on Launching of Engage with M.Nepal to develop and roll out mobile financial services by FY14 Mobile Money Initiative and developing a mobile banking strategy and product as well as an agent and risk Agent Network Development management framework. TA to CEDBL, Nepal - Women Increase access to finance for women entrepreneurs by providing advisory FY15 in Business services to a Nepali bank, CEDBL on strategy, product development and portfolio development Nepal SME Banking Improve SME banking practices in Nepal through the following 2 key FY16 objectives: (1) Developing SME Banking and Risk Management capacity among regulators and BFIs, and dissemination of SME Banking and RM global best practices through training programs; and (2) Advisory to banks on SME Banking/RM RMDC Risk Management and Provide advisory to RMDC across two key components: (i) Support RMDC in FY17 Microinsurance AS creating a strong risk management foundation & allow some of the largest MFIs in Nepal to prioritize RM practices. (ii) Build internal expertise & incentivize RMDC to act as an aggregator & insurance agent in scaling up of Nepal's small & medium size MFIs' insurance business Investment Climate Nepal ICRP - Regulatory Reform The objective of the Project is to improve the investment climate in Nepal by (i) FY14 identifying and removing major regulatory constraints for starting and operating a business, (ii) reducing tax compliance burden for businesses and (iii) improving the efficiency of export-import procedures. Nepal ICRP - Public Private The project will comprise of the following three components: (i) Establishment FY14 Dialogue and Operationalization of NBF Mechanism; (ii) Support private sector reforms to reduce the cost of doing business and capacity building; (iii) Communications and stakeholder engagement Nepal Investment Climate for Support the Government of Nepal in streamlining procedures related to FY16 Industry investment, improving air safety and food standards, as well as enhancing the capacity of investment promotion agencies, which will stimulate growth of the tourism sector through additional investments. Sustainable Business Advisory Nepal SME Ventures Build a pipeline of investable SMEs for the Fund by igniting interest and FY17 helping SMEs develop their managerial capacity and thus become more qualified and attractive for investments. PPCR- Promoting Climate Work with agribusiness lead firms to promote improved agricultural and water FY17 Resilient Agriculture, Nepal management practices and introduce new technologies among smallholder farmers producing rice, maize and sugarcane to adapt to climate change. * Data as of Apr 14, 2014 38 Annex 3: Poverty in Nepal - Achievements and remaining challenges South Asia houses the largest fraction (over 40%) of people living in extreme poverty (less than $1.25/day) in the world and reaching the global goal of poverty eradication will depend on progress on progress in reducing poverty in South Asia. Moreover almost 80% of people in South Asia still live below $2.5/day and are thus highly vulnerable to shocks. While Nepal only accounts for a small fraction of the extreme poor in South Asia (1.41%), achieving the goal of bringing poverty prevalence down to 3% by 2030 is within reach. That said, important challenges remain including: (i) addressing pockets of entrenched poverty in some of the country’s more marginalized areas / groups, (ii) reducing vulnerability to shocks, which is still a reality for a large share of the population, and (iii) managing the country’s upcoming demographic transition. a) Poverty trends There has been a dramatic reduction in poverty in Nepal. Between 2003/04 and 2010/11, the poverty rate fell from 53.1% to 24.8% measured at $1.25 a day (PPP) – corresponding to an annual drop of over 4 percentage points. Using the new national poverty line -30 day recall period- and projecting it backward, poverty has fallen from just below 50% in 2003/4 to close to 31% in 2010/11 – corresponding to a 2.65 percentage point drop per year. Using the more accurate 7 days recall measure of consumption, poverty prevalence is estimated at 25.15%. Poverty reduction has been faster than in India or Bangladesh. At this pace poverty could be eradicated within a decade. Had poverty incidence remained the same as in 2003/04, Nepal would have had nearly 15.1 million poor, more than twice as many as in fact today. Table 1: Number of poor people in Nepal using $1.25/day poverty line (PPP) Total Poverty Number of poor in Nepal population rate Number of poor 2010/11 28,415,998 0.248 7,052,851 2003/04 23,701,451 0.531 12,592,581 Source : CBS (Population Monograph 2003, Census 2011), WDI Figure 1: Poverty trend 1995-2011 80 70 60 50 % Poor 40 1995-96 Pov 30 1995-96 Pov NEW 2010-11 20 Line Pov Line 10 Line - 1995-96 2003-04 2010-11 NLSS Survey Year NLSS I-II poverty estimates NLSS III poverty estimate Trend based on 2010-11 PL $1.25, PPP Given the largely agrarian nature of Nepal, it is not surprising that the bulk of reduction in poverty has taken place in rural areas. Nearly 92% of the poverty reduction between 2003/04 and 2010/11 occurred in rural areas. Although urbanization is proceeding at a fast rate, over the medium term, rising 39 rural incomes will continue to drive poverty reduction. At the same time the large discrepancy between employment in the rural economy and its contribution to GDP suggests that there are significant productivity gains to be reaped from movement of labor from low productivity occupations to higher productivity jobs, either in rural or urban areas. Table 2: Analysis of Poverty Reduction by Rural and Urban Sectors Change 2003-04 2010-11 in Contribution Population Poverty Population Poverty Poverty to total share Rate share Rate Rate change Urban 0.1503 0.1764 0.1902 0.1326 -0.0438 3.6 Rural 0.8497 0.5504 0.8098 0.35 -0.2005 91.8 Total 95.3 Population shift effect 8 Interaction -3.4 All Nepal 1 0.4942 1 0.3087 -0.1856 100 Source: NLSSII, NLSS III (CBS) The improvement in welfare over the last decade is also demonstrated by other indicators of development. Multidimensional indicators of poverty like children’s education, maternal and child health, and access to facilities show marked improvement from 2003/04 to 2010/11. Nepal’s Human Development Index (HDI) also improved from 0.429 in 2005 to 0.463 in 2012. During the same period, the HDI of the South Asia region went up from 0.514 to 0.558. Assuming that the modest growth experienced in the last decade continues, poverty could be virtually eradicated by 2030. Under, a moderate/baseline scenario17, with (i) per-capita gross national disposable income (GNDI) growth at the average rate of the 5 years (2005/06 to 2010/11) and (ii) constant poverty growth elasticity 18, the national poverty rate would fall to 3.15% by 2030. Growth however would need to reach an average of 6% for poverty to fall to the target of 0.85%. Conversely, a growth slowdown (3% - low case scenario) would translate into persistent poverty prevalence at 4.95% by 2030. 17 Note: Moderate per capita GNDI growth rate of 4.75% is the calculated six year average (2005/06 – 2010/11). Low growth rate assumes growth rate of 3%. High growth rate assume growth rate of 6%. 18 The estimated poverty trend is calculated on the basis of growth elasticity of poverty. Between 2004 and 2011, the poverty rate measured at $1.25 a day (PPP) declined by 53.2%, from 53.13% to 24.82%, with the annualized rate of decrease of 10.3%. During approximately the same period, average annual growth rate in GNDI per capita (constant NRs.) was 3.8%. Thus the “back of the envelope” growth elasticity of poverty was -2.71%. 40 Figure 2: Poverty Projection for Nepal 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Poverty trend under moderate per capita GNDI growth rate Poverty trend under low per capita GNDI growth rate Poverty trend under high per capita GNDI growth rate Source : GDP Historical Series (CBS), WDI and World Bank Calculations b) Shared prosperity Growth has been pro-poor. The share of overall consumption enjoyed by the “bottom 40%” increased from 18.5% to 23.6% between 2003/04 and 2010/11. Figure 3: Share of consumption enjoyed by each decile 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Poorest 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th Richest decile decile decile decile decile decile decile decile decile decile 2003/04 % of Consumption 2003/04 Cumulative % 2010/11 % of Consumption 2010/11 Cumulative % Source: NLSS II, NLSS III (CBS) Vulnerability, however, remains high and spatially concentrated. While 52% of the poor households in 2003/04 had moved out of poverty by 2010/11, 13% of those that were non-poor in had slipped into poverty over the same period. Adverse events like flood, drought, inflation, injury, sickness, and death can easily push households to poverty. At the national level, drop in mean consumption of 5% would result in increased poverty prevalence by 3.6% (in India and Bangladesh the corresponding figure is 41 4.5%) 19. However, in the Mid-West and Far-West Hill regions, vulnerability is twice as high. Also, among ethnic groups, Terai Middle Castes, Dalits and other minorities suffer greater vulnerability – a 5 percent fall in consumption triggers a 4.5 percent increase in the poverty rate. Nepal does not have a broad middle class. Mean consumption is at only 70% above the poverty line which means that a significant share of the population remains clustered above the poverty line with very low levels of spending. Over 70% of Nepalis live on less than 2.5 dollars a day and over 90% on less than 4 dollars, indicating the virtual absence of a middle class in the country. The 40% cutoff line is Rs 24,076 which amounts in current dollar terms to a low 0.73 dollars a day. Table 3: Movements in and out of poverty for panel households 2010/11 Poor Non Poor Total Poor 48.0 52.0 100.0 2003/04 Non Poor 13.0 87.0 100.0 Source : World Bank calculations based on NLSS II & NLSS III data Figure 4: Poverty Headcount Ration in South Asia, 2010 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 $1.25/day $2.5/day $3/day $4/day Poverty headcount (%) Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka Source : PovCalNet c) Spatial dimensions of poverty Poverty mapping and disaggregation reveal a twin challenge in addressing enduring poverty. On the one hand there are pockets of “entrenched” deprivation with extremely high poverty prevalence among disadvantaged groups and in remote regions. On the other hand a majority of the poor live in the accessible plain regions and their socio-economic status does not map to clear patterns of ethnic-based discrimination. For instance while a staggering 43% of Hill-Dalit headed households live below the poverty line, they ‘only’ account for 15.2% of Nepal’s poor, less than the Hill-Chetri (16.6%) or Hill- Janjati (24.4%) headed households which however have a significantly lower proportion of poor among them (as well as much lower severity of poverty). Likewise, while poverty prevalence is almost twice as high in the Mountain regions (42.3%) than in the Terai plains (23.4%) the latter are home to almost four times as many poor people (12% and 45.4% of the poor respectively).Therefore addressing the poverty challenge can be decomposed into (i) a growth-redistribution agenda to make sure that the poor benefit 19 The share of vulnerable population is defined as those falling into poverty if the mean consumption were to fall by 5 percent. Nepal’s vulnerable population is estimated at 3.6 percent compared to 4.5 percent in India and Bangladesh, using respective national poverty lines. 42 from economic activity where it happens and (ii) an “inclusion” agenda to expand the opportunity set of hitherto marginalized populations (with obvious intersections between these two). Figure 5: Pockets of poverty are concentrated in the Western Hill regions Source: Small Area Estimates of Poverty, Nepal 2011 Figure 6: Most of the poor are densely populated in the Southern Plains Source: Small Area Estimates of Poverty, Nepal 2011 43 Table 4: Poverty according to caste of the household head Distribution Caste of head of Population Poverty gap Severity of of the poor of the household below poverty (%) poverty (%) population (%) line (%) (%) Hill Brahmin 10.34 1.73 0.48 5.2 12.7 Hill Chhetri 23.4 5.55 1.86 16.6 17.8 Terai Brahmin 18.61 1.75 0.19 0.4 0.5 Terai Middle Caste 28.69 5.36 1.47 17.6 15.4 Hill Dalit 43.63 10.89 4.22 15.2 8.7 Terai Dalit 38.16 8.09 2.24 6.9 4.6 Newar 10.25 2.07 0.7 2.5 6.2 Hill Janajati 28.25 6.64 2.49 24.4 21.8 Terai Janajati 25.93 4.48 1.25 7.3 7.1 Muslim 20.18 3.38 0.85 3.5 4.3 Others 12.34 3.58 1.13 0.5 0.9 Nepal 25.16 5.43 1.81 100 100 Source : World Bank calculations based on NLSS III data Table 5: Poverty Incidence by regions of Nepal Source : World Bank calculations based on NLSS III data d) Poverty dynamics While static analyses of poverty (based on past trends and projecting them outward) provide useful insights, they do not account for dynamic geographic and demographic changes which will drive poverty trends in the future. Specifically three underlying trends will have a significant impact: migrations, urbanization and demographic transition. 44 Migration has increased exponentially in recent years and remittances now constitute a significant share of household incomes. Static counterfactual analysis shows that, without migration, the poverty incidence would jump from 19.3% to 35.3% for households with internal migrants and the impact is substantial for households with migrants abroad as well. Moreover, these counterfactual models do not account for the indirect effects of remittances on economic activities and labor dynamics of the poor, especially in rural areas. Given the importance of migrant labor and income (in effect Nepal’s largest export) the policy framework to leverage them is surprisingly lagging. Households face unduly large costs of emigration. The average cost for a worker going to Gulf countries and Malaysia is US$1,430 and US$4,930 to go to “other developed countries”. Borrowers have to pay high interests rate of 23% per annum and 30% per annum when borrowing from friends/relatives and moneylenders respectively. Even the cost to obtain a passport in Nepal is the highest in the South Asia region. Moreover service providers catering to migrants (placement agencies, remittance institutions, financial institutions) are poorly regulated and expensive artificially increasing the transaction costs involved in migration and limiting the extent to which accumulated skills and income can be translated into productive investment at home. Table 6: The increasing Reach and Volume of Remittance Receipts in Nepal 1995/96 2003/04 2010/11 Percent of households receiving 23.4 31.9 55.8 Real per-capita remittance, NRs 562 1,309 4,046 Percent increase 233 309 Share of foreign source exc. India 22.4 53.5 69.1 Share of income for recipient 26.6 35.4 30.9 households Source: Statistical Report, Volume II for NLSS III and World Bank calculations Table 7: Counterfactual Analysis of Impact of worker Migration and Remittance on Poverty (Proportion of poor, %) MODEL ESTIMATES of MODEL ESTIMATES of poverty incidence change in poverty incidence Actual No With 2003-04 No With 2003-04 2010 migration mig. and rem. migration mig. & rem. All households 25.2 28.1 26.6 -2.9 -1.4 Hhs with no migrants 23.7 23.7 23.7 0.0 0.0 Hhs with migrants within Nepal 19.3 35.3 29.1 -16.0 -9.8 Hhs with migrants abroad 26.4 32.1 30.1 -5.7 -3.7 Source : World Bank calculations based on NLSS data Starting from a very low base, urbanization has accelerated sharply in recent years. With only 19 percent of the population living in urban areas, Nepal is predominantly a rural country but is rapidly urbanizing with urban population growth rates of up to 7 percent. This shift in population from rural to urban areas accounted for 8 percent of total poverty reduction between 2003/04 and 2010/11. Finally, Nepal is at the eve of a major demographic transition which should enable it to reap the ‘demographic dividend’ that comes when the dependency ratio start falling. Indeed the ratio of working age (15-64) to non-working persons has just started to increase for Nepal and it is expected to peak in 2045-50 20, later than India and Bangladesh. Moreover, the significant decline in fertility in recent 45 years will also contribute to poverty reduction as the poverty rate increases monotonously with the household size, starting from 3% for single person household and rising to 38% for households with 7 or more members. Figure 7: Trends in total Fertility Rate, 1984-2010 (Births per woman) Source : Nepal Demographic and Health Survey, 2011 Figure 8: Projected dependency ratio of Nepal and its neighbors 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100 Bangladesh India Nepal Sri Lanka Source : UN Population Prospects, 2010 These transformations, while they represent significant opportunities also involve challenges to be tackled in the short to medium term. Urbanization, to date, has been largely biased toward the capital Kathmandu imposing significant pressure on the provision of social and urban infrastructure. The significant increase in the working age population will require putting to the fore a skills/employment agenda while emigration will continue to act as a ‘safety valve’. 20 Must take this with a heavy pinch of salt, population decline in Nepal from census 2011 is not factored in here, fertility is on decline faster than presumed because of migration of young men – some two million departed in the last 10 years, so the peak come should sooner on current migration trends 46 Figure 9: Projected Labor force Growth (annual average %) ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 47 Annex 4: Nepal Foreign Aid Structure Figure 1: Share of Foreign Aid Disbursements in FY12 Figure 2: Total Donor Disbursements in FY11 and FY12 Figure 3: Sector Share of Foreign Aid Disbursement in FY12 48 Figure 4: Distribution of Foreign Aid Disbursement in FY12—per Policy Cluster of GoN Development Plan Donor Coordination Mechanisms: The aid effectiveness agenda in Nepal is driven by the Local Donor Meeting, which serves as the main forum for dialogue and coordination between development partners and Government on development policy issues. The meeting is chaired by the Ministry of Finance and co-chaired by a development partner. The annual Nepal Portfolio Performance Review (NPPR) also provides an important mechanism to discuss cross-cutting implementation issues and bottlenecks for development programs, bringing together seven core development partners (including the World Bank) and key government agencies to identify bottlenecks in program implementation actions to address them. The NPPR Action Plan (focused on actions to improve country systems performance and mutual accountability) is approved by the Cabinet, and a tracking mechanism reporting to the Cabinet has been established. The current NPPR focuses on measuring performance against results. Among donors, the International Development Partners Group (IDPG)—co-chaired by the Bank, the UN and Switzerland — provides a bimonthly forum for information sharing, coordination and dialogue on common issues of concern. 49 Annex 5: Lessons Learned from Previous Strategies 1. The last Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) for Nepal was from November 2003 and covered FY04-07. It was followed by three ISNs: (i) from January 2007, covering FY08-09; (ii) from May 2009, covering FY10-11; and (iii) from April 2011, covering FY12-13. An IEG Country Assistance Evaluation (FY03-08) assessed the Bank’s program and performance during the time of the 2003 CAS, including the last year of a 2002 CAS Progress Report, and the first year of the 2007 ISN. This CAS Completion Report picks up where the IEG evaluation left off. Nepal CAS/ISN Timelines 2002* 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 CAS PR Country Assistance Strategy Interim Strategy Interim Strategy Interim Strategy (November 2002) (November 2003) (January 2007) (May 2009) (August 2011) IEG Country Assistance Evaluation 2003-2008 *Fiscal Years (July-June) 2. Interim Strategies were considered more appropriate to provide flexible support during Nepal’s transition period to peace and a more stable political system. The Bank decided on providing interim support despite the Comprehensive Peace Accord in 2006 and the subsequent peaceful election of a Constituent Assembly, tasked with drafting the country’s constitution, which gave Nepal relative stability after the civil war. One key indicator for the eventual move to a full Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) was considered to be the adoption of the constitution, which the 2009 ISN expected by 2010 and the 2011 ISN by 2012. 3. Building on the lessons from past strategy implementations the 2009 ISN put in place the main characteristics of the current Bank Group Strategy, which were continued under the 2011 ISN. Based on shortcomings in the implementation of past strategies and an assessment from the Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) (see box), the 2009 ISN introduced a couple of key principles for the Bank Group’s engagement in Nepal: (i) align with country priorities; (ii) harmonize/coordinate with other development partners; (iii) build on Bank and IFC comparative advantages; (iv) retain a degree of modesty; and (v) be flexible. Another key principle introduced in the 2011 ISN was to be more selective as the country program at that point was perceived to be too spread out. Box 1: Lessons from Previous Bank Group Strategy Implementations The Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) presented a Country Assistance Evaluation (CAE) in May 2009, which rated IDA assistance during 2003-2008 to Nepal as “moderately unsatisfactory”. On the positive side, IEG acknow- ledged progress in the social sectors, particularly in improving and expanding health services, significantly increasing access to primary education, and increasing access to safe drinking water in rural areas. On the negative side, however, there was little to no progress under the IDA objectives of achieving broad based growth and good governance. Given the shortcomings in these two key areas, IEG considered the Bank strategies in 2003-2008 as unrealistic and overly ambitious especially given prevailing country circumstances at that time (the height of the armed conflict). IEG’s key suggestions were therefore to inject greater realism in program design, retain flexibility to adjust to changing country circumstance and to consult widely with national stakeholders and development partners. In terms of sectors and instruments, IEG recommended a stronger focus on agriculture and rural development, better tracking of the impact of the Poverty Alleviation Fund (PAF) on poverty and social inclusion, and continuing support for public finance management and other institutional reforms through policy-based lending, if feasible, or through Sector Wide Approaches (SWAps). 4. In terms of key programmatic features, in 2009-2011 the Bank for the first time moved to a more well-defined results framework. The 2009 ISN featured, in its own words, only a “partial results framework”. Given Nepal’s circumstances, the framework anticipated only modest results focusing on key actions, processes and intermediate outputs that were deemed achievable within a two-year timeframe. It included outcome indicators in only a few areas, including education, health, rural water supply and sanitation, and rural roads. The 2011 ISN—which featured a brief assessment of the progress 50 achieved under the framework of the 2009 ISN—was the first attempt at a results-based World Bank Group strategy with relatively clear outcome indicators and targets albeit no milestones. Table 1: ISN Pillars, Principles and Features 2009 ISN 2011 ISN Overarching Country Goal: Building a Peaceful, Prosperous and Just Nepal  Pillar 1: Promoting capable state structures and  Pillar 1: Enhancing connectivity and productivity systems fostering accountable institutions for growth  Pillar 2: Laying the foundation for sustainable and  Pillar 2: Reducing vulnerabilities and improving inclusive economic growth resilience  Pillar 3: Enhancing equitable access to services and  Pillar 3: Promoting access to better quality services social inclusion Cross-cutting theme 1: Strengthening governance and Cross-cutting theme 1: Helping to consolidate peace accountability Cross-cutting theme 2: Fostering social inclusion Cross-cutting theme 2: Fostering gender equality and social inclusion Key Principles: Key Additional Principles: • Align with country priorities • Be selective • Harmonize and coordinate with other development partners • Build on Bank and IFC’s areas of comparative advantage • Retain modesty and “keep it simple” • Be flexible to respond to emerging opportunities and challenges Key Programmatic Features: Key Additional Features: • Partial Results Framework with key actions, • Results-based Strategy with ISN outcome indicators processes and intermediate outputs and targets (but no milestones) • Build on past areas of effective engagement • Integration of Social Accountability Tools into the • Emphasize community-based operations country program • Minimize numbers of projects • SILs and AFs as primary instruments • Peace Filter – be sensitive to conflict causes and “do no harm” • 4-5 new IDA operations/year • Reengagement in Agriculture • SWAps expansion • Potential DPC series • Programmatic and “Just-in time” analytics 5. The 2009 ISN and in continuation the 2011 ISN laid out a framework for flexible and realistic Bank engagement in a difficult country environment. There was strong alignment between the country’s priorities and the strategic outcomes adopted under both ISNs. While the 2009 ISN featured only a partial results framework, 2011 ISN increased the programs results framework through introducing more tangible outcome indicators and targets. Both strategies focused on keeping the program simple and flexible, which allowed the Bank to respond to shifting country circumstances. The 2009 ISN introduced a “peace filter”, which helped to make the program more conflict sensitive and “do no harm”. The marrying of the peace filter with governance action plans for each project contributed to strengthening supply-side governance aspect and the introduction of social accountability tools into the portfolio contributed to strengthening important demand-side aspects. While implementation can be strengthened in each area and their application be further mainstreamed across the Bank’s portfolio, they do point into the right direction for effective Bank engagement in a still highly fragile environment. 6. New commitments increased to historic levels under the 2009 ISN but declined during the 2011 ISN. Annual new commitments were US$352 million in FY10 and US$289 million in FY11, which fell within the US$600-740 range of projected ISN commitments. These are historically high 51 commitment numbers for the Nepal program, which averaged only about US$156 million in annual commitments during the four previous years. It allowed the program to end IDA15 (FY09-11) on a high note by delivering above the indicative IDA15 allocation of SDR332.3 million (about US$512 million) for FY10-11. New commitments declined again to US$143 million in FY12, about 70 percent of the final FY12 allocation for IDA16. FY13 delivery so far has been slow with only US$40 million new commitments in the first half, even though an indicative, but highly uncertain, pipeline has the potential to deliver another US$250 million. IFC invested in 14 projects (for US$57 million in total) over the last ISN period (FY12 and FY13) and 12 projects (for around US$26 million in total) in the FY10-11 ISN (over FY10 and FY11). 7. Total disbursements increased in line with increased commitments and disbursement ratios remained relatively high. Total disbursements held pace with greater commitments and increased from an average US$95.4 million in annual disbursements during FY06-09 to US$178 in FY10-12. While averaged annual commitments over both periods increased by 20 percent, total average disbursements increased by a healthy 80 percent. Disbursement ratios remained at similar levels, averaging about 27 percent over both periods. 8. The principles of flexibility in the Bank’s engagement continued to be an important element in adequately responding to the difficult country environment. It has allowed the Bank to restructure ongoing projects (Emergency Peace Support, Second Higher Education) and respond to government requests for new support within the Bank’s strategic framework (Enhanced Vocational Education and Training, Additional Financing to the Poverty Alleviation Fund). 9. While Nepal stands out by being the first IDA country to use the new lending instrument— Program for Results (PforR)—the application of more policy-based lending was slower than expected. The 2009 ISN envisaged the expansion of Sector Wide Approaches (SWAps) from education to health into other sectors such as rural roads, rural water supply and sanitation, and agriculture. In addition, it planned the launch of a Development Policy Credit (DPC) series. Agreements on further SWAp frameworks were deferred due to local insecurity, weak country systems and lack of clarity regarding local responsibilities. The DPC series did not materialize, even though a standalone financial sector DPC came on board for delivery in FY13. Support to public finance management and institutional reform continues to be provided primarily through technical assistance. However, the Bridges Improvement and Maintenance Program utilizes the new PforR instrument, specifically geared at achieving development outcomes while building robust systems and institutional capacity for long-run development. Key Lessons and Recommendations 10. While keeping development interventions simple is preferable to unrealistic over-ambition, it runs the risk of missing opportunities. Previous Bank Group strategies kept Bank interventions “simple”, in light of the fragile post-conflict environment, but retaining this approach over the long term may result in missing out on areas with a major impact on growth, poverty and shared prosperity. The Bank Group’s new strategy therefore will examine more complex areas with potentially transformative impacts which try to unlock Nepal’s binding constraints. Examples include an expansion of engagement in hydropower generation, which would support domestic growth as well as potential energy exports, as well as establishment of a unified national identification, which has the potential to transform Nepal’s service delivery with better targeting and transparency. 11. Having supported immediate post-conflict needs, the Bank Group’s program needs to shift toward a more strategic engagement and address longer-term systemic issues. In line with the findings of the 2011 World Development Report (WDR) on conflict and fragility, the Bank’s program focused on identifying the “stress factors” for instability and fragility as well as building public confidence by focusing on short-term tangible measures. Accordingly, the previous interim strategies established a “peace filter” to mainstream conflict analysis into project preparation and avoid “doing 52 harm”. In addition, the Bank’s program emphasized relatively short-term measures, such as cash- transfers to conflict-affected groups, including Maoist cantonments. The next step proposed by the 2011 WDR is to focus on the more arduous tasks of strengthening the capacity of state institutions and making them more inclusive, to help build citizens’ trust in the state. The new Bank strategy therefore proposes to phase out short-term measures and instead contribute to building effective and inclusive systems. This approach will be taken across sectors, including social protection, education, energy, transport and agriculture. 12. Programmatic flexibility continues to be a key requirement in the Nepali context. To provide effective support and respond to changes in a still-transitional country context, the Bank Group will need to remain flexible. High levels of political fragility will continue to require a rapid ability to respond and adapt to either deteriorations or improvements in the operating environment. This will also mean continuing selectively to innovate and test different approaches, including scaling-up those that work and dropping those that do not. 13. A short-term strategy approach impedes continuity in engagement and accomplishment of deep and longer-lasting results. Given the country’s track record and alignment among the key stakeholders around development priorities, the Bank Group’s previous short-term planning horizon of a maximum of 24 months has been too short to support the important institutional and systemic changes needed to put Nepal on a stable development path and demonstrate higher-level results in the core priority sectors for the country. The proposed strategy therefore covers four years of World Bank Group engagement. A mid-term review after two years will allow for any course corrections, if necessary. 53 Annex 6: Feedback from CAS Consultations and Client Survey During the months of November and December 2012, Joint IFC and World Bank teams conducted extensive stakeholder consultations in six different districts across Nepal. The locations were Kathmandu, Janakpur, Dhankuta, Dadeldhura, Baglung and Surkhet. Locations were identified in order to make the consultations representative of the various geographical locations of Nepal from plains to hills and from rural to urban areas. Stakeholders from 5-6 different districts in and around each of these locations participated. Participants consisted of government officials, representatives of political parties, civil society organizations, media, youth groups, women’s groups, the private sector and development partners. Diversity of views was also ensured by the active participation from various historically marginalized ethnicities central to the identity politics that contours the political landscape of Nepal today. Key Issues Identified: The highlight of the consultation was that stakeholders throughout Nepal shared similar developmental priorities and their ideas about the way forward were comparable. Politics: Stakeholders recognized political instability, lack of political leadership and weak governance structures coupled with lack of non-partisan and robust bureaucracy as major blockages to the drive for development results. Besides these, there was an understanding that these issues were hindering public accountability, creating an environment that turned a blind eye to corruption and deterred adequate checks and balances. Governance and lack of accountability: Although stakeholders link political instability and lack of elected bodies to be at the heart of weak governance and accountability, social awareness, accountability to beneficiaries, and financial transparency were identified as crucial issues to improve governance. The need for robust monitoring and evaluation of public institutions and the need to invest in a well- performing PFM system were also emphasized. In a similar vein, stakeholders emphasized the lack of a regulatory framework to protect women rights Right to Information: Lack of awareness about and access to public information appeared as a crosscutting theme. This was especially important in the context of citizen’s ability to monitor service delivery across sectors. Stakeholders cited examples of citizens’ inability and/or difficulty to access information. They also made a case for a stronger drive to make information easily available to the general public in so far as it would also facilitate monitoring of public institutions. There was a strong case for further investment in tools that empowered citizens to enforce accountability. Lack of Skills-based Education: While education was, by and large, articulated as an important area for investment in Nepal, stakeholders pointed out quality rather than quantity of education and content of the curriculum of the public schools as key areas for improvement. Discussions specifically highlighted the need switch to a more skills-based education. The rationale is that education alone does not ensure economic empowerment if it is not adequately supported by skills that translate into employment. Thus, the suggestion is to not invest in primary and secondary education at the cost of skill based education. Lack of jobs: Stakeholders emphasize the need for jobs and in this context also the ability to keep skilled manpower in-country in order to be able to support the development agenda. Stakeholders recognized the need for better public private partnerships and enabling an environment for private investment and the growth of the private sector. Stakeholders highlighted the lack of energy with the need to invest in hydropower; industrialization and the need to encourage entrepreneurship and small and medium enterprises for a robust private sector. 54 Lack of infrastructure/Energy: Stakeholders thought that Infrastructure and in particular energy is an area of comparative advantage for the Bank. However, they were also wary of the inability of the government to drive the agenda for power infrastructure in the past. One of the key issues highlighted in this area was endemic corruption that either stalled the progress of large infrastructure projects or jeopardized the quality of infrastructure that was delivered. Agriculture: With 75% of the population dependent on agriculture and farming, increase in agriculture productivity was widely recognized (even in urban areas) as the answer to burgeoning food crisis and food insecurity issues that grips Nepal regularly. Generally, the need for more jobs in the agro-industries and the need to make it a viable option for sustainable youth employment were highlighted. In this regard, the commercialization of agriculture and access to markets was advised. From a slightly different perspective, some opined that agriculture productivity should not be treated in isolation with land use and management issues because the ownership of land is directly tied to equitable distribution of development dividends in the sector. Also integral to this view was that the Bank’s ability to reach out to the extremely poor is via the development of this sector and that the correct implementation of programs and policies in this sector could make a huge difference to the lives of the historically marginalized population in Nepal. Inclusive Growth and Development: One of the challenges of development in Nepal was argued as uneven distribution of development dividends among the population. Empowerment and inclusion of women, the poor, marginalized and people with disability, through education, participation in political decision making and availability of economic opportunities was seen as a part of the drive towards positive change. Investment in human development and the need to regularly monitor human development component in Bank funded projects was highlighted. Lack of quality health service delivery: Lack of proper health care facilities and inadequate expansion of health services targeted towards the poor especially in rural areas was accentuated. Severe lack of medical staff and limited resource mobilization in this sector and inadequate monitoring of the quality of services provided renders this sector to be a priority area that needs investment both to train manpower and infrastructure to provide medical facilities. Capacity development in maternal health was identified as an area for investment in the health sector. Environmental Degradation and Climate Change: Stakeholders opined that development and industrialization should not be welcomed at the risk of environmental degradation. Stringent safeguards for environment need to be integrated and implemented into development programs, especially agriculture (promotion of organic farming methods), roads (haphazard expansion) and infrastructure related sectors have tremendous scope. Other Issues: There was general consensus that the Bank needs to be selective of the projects that requires its assistance. The effective utilization of the resource envelope demands being wary of the comparative advantage and the need to identify donor coordination and avoid duplication of work. Moreover, the Bank should use its convening power to guide public policy and reform the quality of civil services such as public monitoring mechanism. Stakeholders advised the bank to be more proactive in providing policy support to the government. There was also an appreciation for the Bank’s alignment to country system and efforts to institutional strengthening. Many appreciated the fact that the Bank besides providing “money” also provides “knowledge” and “skills”. Many hoped that the Bank could continue to lead development in the country by effectively coordinating with other donors. By and large, the four pillars envisioned in the new CAS have been endorsed by the participants and also believed that it was well aligned with their needs and country’s development priorities. 55 THE WORLD BANK GROUP CLIENT SURVEY FY12 Background: A client survey was conducted in December 2012 to get better insight into client perceptions about the World Bank Group. The survey was designed to provide the World Bank Group a better understanding of stakeholders’ perception of the World Bank’s activities in Nepal. The feedback from the survey would then inform the the CAS formulation process that the country team had started to embark on in June 2012. The survey covered a range of questions that sought to explore stakeholder’s views views regarding the general environment in Nepal; their overall attitudes toward the World Bank in Nepal; Overall impressions of the World Bank’s effectiveness and results, knowledge and research, and communication and information sharing in Nepal; And perceptions of the World Bank’s future role in Nepal. It also sought to examine Bank’s areas of expertise and if it needed to be streamlined with its current portfolio for optimum development effectiveness. Process: Approximately 410 stakeholders were invited, through mailed questionnaires, to provide their opinions on the Bank’s assistance to the country. Participants in the survey were drawn from among the office of the President or Prime Minister; the office of a Minister; the office of a Parliamentarian; employees of a ministry, ministerial department, or implementation agency; consultants/contractors working on World Bank-supported projects/programs; project management units (PMUs) overseeing implementation of a project; local government officials or staff; bilateral agencies; multilateral agencies; private sector organizations; private foundations; the financial sector/private banks; NGOs; community- based organizations (CBOs); the media; independent government institutions; trade unions; faith-based groups; academia/research institutes/think tanks; the judiciary branch; women’s groups; and youth groups. 76% of the invitees participated in the survey. Results: Overall in a country environment rife with governance issues and lack of security, respondents are looking forward to a keener involvement of the Bank Group. Conversely, the overall effectiveness of the Bank seems to have diminished as per the survey. However, the silver lining lies in stakeholder’s sectoral ratings and their perception about education, poverty, growth, agriculture and private sector development as contributors to development. They appreciate the Bank’s knowledge deliverables. They seem somewhat disillusioned with the processes of dissemination and translation including its’ trans- latability into skills. Also, they are quite skeptical about the level of stakeholder involvement in what they consider to be a highly valuable source of knowledge. Areas of Focus: The country survey largely reiterated ‘peace and security’ as the foremost development priority. The general country environment (read: political instability/Governance issues) that is weighing the country down. Unequal participation in civil life was considered to be rife and a cause and effect of the inability of the Nepalese state to unlock much needed reforms. Moreover the areas of focus for the Bank Group as pointed out are lack of jobs and access to quality education, poverty and public sector governance, energy and agriculture/rural development , tourism and private sector development are critical priorities for growth and poverty reduction in the Nepalese Context. Value to the Clients: In terms of value of the World Bank to the clients, most stakeholders value the Bank for its financial resources. Many believe that the bank could perhaps reduce the complexity of obtaining financing. Also respondents suggest that the quality of the Bank’s experts in Nepal seem to be lower than in most countries. For added value, the Bank needs to interact more with local government and private sector rather than restricting itself to the Government at the higher echelons. 56 Annex 7: Selected Indicators of Portfolio Performance and Management As Of Date 4/15/2014 Indicator 2011 2012 2013 2014 Portfolio Assessment Number of Projects Under Implementation a 17 18 19 17 Average Implementation Period (years) b 3.6 3.5 3.8 4.0 Percent of Problem Projects by Number a, c 17.6 11.1 26.3 35.3 Percent of Problem Projects by Amount a, c 15.8 21.4 23.0 22.1 Percent of Projects at Risk by Number a, d 41.2 22.2 57.9 52.9 Percent of Projects at Risk by Amount a, d 44.3 35.2 60.1 50.0 Disbursement Ratio (%) e 31.3 24.1 26.5 19.2 Memorandum Item Since FY 80 Last Five FYs Proj Eval by OED by Number 78 6 Proj Eval by OED by Amt (US$ millions) 1,815.2 255.9 % of OED Projects Rated U or HU by Number 36.4 33.3 % of OED Projects Rated U or HU by Amt 23.9 4.5 a. As shown in the Annual Report on Portfolio Performance (except for current FY). b. Average age of projects in the Bank's country portfolio. c. Percent of projects rated U or HU on development objectives (DO) and/or implementation progress (IP). d. As defined under the Portfolio Improvement Program. e. Ratio of disbursements during the year to the undisbursed balance of the Bank's portfolio at the beginning of the year: Investment projects only. * All indicators are for projects active in the Portfolio, with the exception of Disbursement Ratio, which includes all active projects as well as projects which exited during the fiscal year. 57 Annex 8: IDA Operations Portfolio As Of Date 4/15/2014 Closed Projects 89 IBRD/IDA Total Disbursed (Active) 730.96 of which has been repaid 0.00 Total Disbursed (Closed) 770.19 of which has been repaid 422.00 Total Disbursed (Active + Closed) 1,501.15 of which has been repaid 422.00 Total Undisbursed (Active) 683.47 Total Undisbursed (Closed) 6.66 Total Undisbursed (Active + Closed) 690.13 Active Projects Difference Between Last ISR Expected and Actual Supervision Rating Disbursements a/ Development Implementation Project ID Project Name Fiscal Year IDA Cancel. Undisb. Orig. Frm Rev'd Objectives Progress P132289 Kali Gandaki Rehab MS MS 2013 27.26 27.84 P125495 NP: Bridges Program Support MU MU 2012 60 43.31 9.56 P120265 NP: Emerging Towns Project MU MU 2011 25 6.43 10.50 5.74 -1.52 P104015 NP: Enhanced Vocational Educ & Trng MS MU 2011 50 10.37 26.57 24.88 0.00 P099296 NP: Irrig & Water Res Mgmt Proj S S 2008 114.3 59.79 -4.73 9.57 P112893 NP: Kabeli Transmission Project MU MU 2011 38 27.09 8.51 P105860 NP: PAF II S MS 2008 245 0.03 82.04 -62.80 -4.69 P110762 NP: Peace Support Project MS MS 2008 50 13.06 0.68 15.33 13.71 P118179 NP: Rani Jamara Kulariya Irrigation Proj S MS 2012 43 30.68 11.58 P095977 NP: Road Sector Development Project MS MU 2008 117.6 28.49 -46.72 -1.26 P113441 NP: School Sector Reform Program MS MS 2010 230 83.16 -32.68 98.65 P090967 NP: Second Higher Education Project MS MS 2007 60 9.50 7.68 1.43 P117417 NP: Second HNP and HIV/AIDS Project S MS 2010 129.15 57.16 30.34 P113002 NP: Social Safety Nets Project S MS 2009 64.47 5.18 7.81 -30.67 12.13 P087140 NP:Agriculture Commercialization & Trade S MS 2009 60 50.75 8.50 P125359 NP:Community Actionfor Nutrition Project MU MU 2012 40 37.68 2.63 P132750 SNRTP S S 2014 100 100.42 0.67 Overall Result 1453.78 35.07 683.47 -52.17 128.02 Regional Projects with Nepal Components Development Implementation Project ID Project Name Fiscal Year IDA Cancel. Undisb. Orig. Frm Rev'd Objectives Progress P144335 Nepal-India Reg Trade & Transport Prj S S 2013 99 93.2 -6.0 186.1 P121210 REG: Wildlife Protection: BD and NP MS MU 2011 39 31.3 20.3 90.6 P115767 REG:Northeast Regional Electr. Transmiss MS MS 2011 138 122.6 64.3 324.9 Overall Result 276 247.0 78.5 602 58 Annex 9: Nepal Trust Fund Portfolio (As of March 31, 2014) USD in Million Trust Fund Effective Closing Net Commit. Total Cum. Undisb. S. No. Project ID Project Disb. FY14 % Disb. Number Date Date Amount Disb. Balance 1 P090038 TF 56440 Nepal - Biogas Program 3-May-06 31-Jul-15 7.00 1.57 3.55 50.73% 3.45 2 P095978 TF 90264 Nepal - Village Micro Hydro 30-Jun-07 15-Dec-15 1.96 0.00 0.00 0.00% 1.96 3 P090967 TF 93397 Japan Social Development Fund Grant for Pro-poor Targeted Secondary School Stipend Project (C) 2-Jan-09 15-Jan-14 1.90 0.18 1.58 82.87% 0.33 4 P125198 TF 94724 Nepal REDD Readiness Preparation Program 26-Aug-09 30-Jun-15 3.60 0.73 1.43 39.64% 2.17 5 P119113 TF 98650 Program to Promote Demand for Good Governance (C) 24-Jan-11 31-Dec-13 1.41 0.19 1.32 93.53% 0.09 6 P123653 TF 97889 ADKF Small Grants Program 1-Mar-11 28-Feb-14 1.00 0.00 1.00 100.00% 0.00 7 P113441 TF 98235 Nepal: School Sector Reform Program 21-Mar-11 15-Dec-14 120.00 13.41 116.33 96.94% 3.67 8 P125891 TF 99675 Strengthening Institutional Capacity of the DNPWC for the Effective Management of Mountain Protected Areas 25-Aug-11 25-Aug-14 0.50 0.16 0.33 66.04% 0.17 9 P125331 TF 99288 Nepal: Human Development - Social Protection Pilot Project 29-Aug-11 31-Jul-14 1.50 0.34 0.79 52.69% 0.71 10 P124088 TF 99274 Additional Financing to the Poverty Alleviation Fund II 11-Oct-11 30-Jun-14 10.00 0.47 10.00 100.00% 0.00 11 P125770 TF 10452 Strengthening PFM Systems in Nepal 31-Oct-11 30-Jun-15 4.30 1.49 3.15 73.33% 1.15 12 P128744 TF 11208 Nepal: Making markets work for the conflict affected in Nepal 17-Feb-12 17-Feb-16 2.65 0.43 0.79 29.72% 1.86 13 P127040 TF 10455 NP: Strengthening the Office of the Auditor General 23-Feb-12 30-Jun-15 2.30 0.64 0.99 43.24% 1.31 14 P130089 TF 12273 Zoonoses Control Project (ZCP) (C) 5-Jul-12 31-Mar-14 10.00 3.56 5.06 50.60% 4.94 15 P129177 TF 11452 Nepal: Pilot Project for Seismic School Safety in the kathmandu 23-Jul-12 30-Jun-14 1.37 0.10 0.10 7.30% 1.27 16 P131860 TF 12485 Nepal PFM-MDTF Strengthening Civil Society Organizations' use of Social Accountability to improve PFM in Nepal 30-Aug-12 30-Jun-14 0.80 0.35 0.70 87.41% 0.10 P127508 TF 13557 15.00 0.00 0.00 0.00% 15.00 17 Building Resilience to Climate Related Hazards 20-Jun-13 30-Nov-18 P127508 TF 13665 16.00 6.00 6.00 37.50% 10.00 18 P130461 TF 13464 Output-Based Aid for Municipal Solid Waste Management 21-Jun-13 30-Jun-17 4.29 0.26 0.26 6.10% 4.03 19 P128905 TF 13719 Nepal Agriculture and Food Security Project 30-Apr-13 31-Mar-18 46.50 4.25 4.25 9.14% 42.25 20 P145359 TF 15780 JSDF for Pro-Poor Urban Regeneration Pilot Project 10-Feb-14 30-Sep-17 2.75 0.00 0.00 0.00% 2.75 21 P145736 TF 16296 Adolescent Girls Employment Initiative II 10-Feb-14 30-Sep-17 0.58 0.00 0.00 0.00% 0.58 TOTAL 255.40 34.12 157.62 61.72% 97.78 Effective Closing Net Commit. Total Cum. Undisb. S. No. Project ID COFN Number Project Disb. FY14 % Disb. Date Date Amount Disb. Balance 20 P105860 COFN C1200 Poverty Alleviation Fund II 31-Jul-08 31-Dec-14 3.94 0.09 3.81 94.29% 0.13 Project Preparation Fund Effective Closing Net Commit. Total Cum. Undisb. S. No. Project ID PPF Number Name of Disbursing PPF Disb. FY14 % Disb. Date Date Amount Disb. Balance 20 P143036 IDA Q8700 Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Improvement Project 24-Sep-13 30-Jun-14 3.00 0.00 0.00 0.00% 3.00 + Utilization of Resources as of March 31, 2014 . * Exchange Rate Adjustment # Adjusted Trust Amount amount in columns 8 are figures derived after cancellation from original Trust Fund amount. Note: 1) The matrix presents the disbursement status of only ongoing portfolio and closed portfolio with disbursement period open. Projects which are already closed are not included in the matrix. 2) Japan Social Development Fund Grant for Pro-poor Targeted Project (TF93397) extended until January 15, 2014 (extension letter dated July 31, 2012) 3) Social Protection Project (TF 99288) extended until July 31, 2013 (1st extension) 4) TF 94724 FCPF REDD Cell extended by one and half year with new closing date of June 30, 2015.(1st extension) 59 Annex 10: Nepal IFC Portfolio IFC's Committed and Disbursed Outstanding Investment Portfolio As of 03/31/2014 (In USD Millions) Committed Disbursed Outstanding **Quasi Partici **Quasi Partici FY Approval Company Loan Equity Equity *GT/RM pant Loan Equity Equity *GT/RM pant 2008/ 2009/ 2010/ 2011/ 8.00 0 0 0.74 - 6.40 0 - 0.74 - 2012/ 2013/ 2014 BoK 2009/ 2013 Buddha Air Nepal 5.45 0 0 0 - 5.45 0 - 0 - 2010/ 2013 Butw al Pow er Co 8.24 0 0 0 - 5.66 0 - 0 - 2014 Himtal Hydro - 2.000 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 - 1998 Jomsom Resort 4.00 0 0 0 - 4.00 0 - 0 - 2011/ 2012/ 2013/ - 0 0 0.04 - 0 0 - 0.04 - 2014 Laxmi Bank Ltd 2009/ 2010/ 2011/ - 0 0 0.02 - 0 0 - 0.02 - 2013/ 2014 NIC Bank 2012/ 2014 NWEDC - 3.894 0 0 - 0 3.00 - 0 - 2011/ 2012 Nepal BO2 - 0.283 6.70 0 - 0 0.28 - 0 - 2010 Nirdhan MFB - 0.187 0 0 - 0 0.19 - 0 - 2012 RMDC Nepal - 0.539 0 0 - 0 0.54 - 0 - 2009 Smartchoice - 0.350 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 - 25.69 7.25 6.70 0.79 - 21.51 4.00 - 0.79 - * Denotes Guarantee and Risk Management Products. ** Quasi Equity includes both loan and equity types. Nepal: IFC Investment Operations Program 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* Original Commitments (US$m) IFC and Participants 14 13 35 22 4 IFC's Own Accounts only 14 13 35 22 4 Original Commitments by Sector (%)- IFC Accounts only E - Transportation and Warehousing 0 0 0 32 0 O - Finance & Insurance 53 98 73 57 33 P - Collective Investment Vehicles 0 2 19 0 0 V - Electric Power 47 0 8 11 67 100 100 100 100 100 Original Commitments by Investment Instrument (%) - IFC Accounts only Guarantee 51 98 48 57 33 Loan-LN 47 0 23 43 0 Quasi-Equity (Loan Type) 0 0 19 0 0 Straight Equity (incl. Fund) 2 2 10 0 67 Total 100 100 100 100 100 * As of Mar 31, 2014 60 Annex 11: Nepal at a Glance Nepal at a glance 2/11/14 Key Development Indicators South Low Nepal Asia income Age distribution, 2012 (2012) Male Female Population, mid-year (millions) 27.5 1,649 846 75- 79 Surface area (thousand sq. km) 147 5,131 16,198 60- 64 Population growth (%) 1.2 1.3 2.3 Urban population (% of total population) 17 31 28 45- 49 30- 34 GNI (Atlas method, US$ billions) 19.2 2,345 494 15- 19 GNI per capita (Atlas method, US$) 700 1,422 584 GNI per capita (PPP, international $) 1,500 3,534 1,387 0-4 10 5 0 5 10 GDP growth (%) 4.9 3.6 5.9 percent of total population GDP per capita growth (%) 3.6 2.3 3.6 (most recent estimate, 2005–2012) Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP, %) 25 31 48.3 Under-5 mortality rate (per 1,000) Poverty headcount ratio at $2.00 a day (PPP, %) 57 67 74.3 Life expectancy at birth (years) 68 66 61 150 Infant mortality (per 1,000 live births) 34 47 56 Child malnutrition (% of children under 5) 29 32 22 100 Adult literacy, male (% of ages 15 and older) 73 73 69 Adult literacy, female (% of ages 15 and older) 48 50 54 Gross primary enrollment, male (% of age group) 134 111 111 50 Gross primary enrollment, female (% of age group) 145 109 106 0 Access to an improved water source (% of population) 88 90 67 1990 1995 2000 2012 Access to improved sanitation facilities (% of population) 35 39 37 Nepal South Asia Net Aid Flows 1980 1990 2000 2012 (US$ millions) Net ODA and official aid 160 423 386 770 Growth of GDP and GDP per capita (%) Top 3 donors (in 2012): United Kingdom 16 26 23 110 10 United States 8 17 16 66 8 Germany 19 36 22 65 6 4 Aid (% of GNI) 8.2 11.6 7.0 5.1 2 Aid per capita (US$) 11 23 17 30 0 -2 Long-Term Economic Trends -4 95 05 Consumer prices (annual % change) 9.6 9.9 3.3 8.3 GDP implicit deflator (annual % change) 7.6 10.7 4.5 6.5 GDP GDP per capita Exchange rate (annual average, local per US$) 12.0 28.5 69.1 81.0 Terms of trade index (2000 = 100) .. .. .. .. 1980–90 1990–2000 2000–12 (average annual growth %) Population, mid-year (millions) 14.4 18.1 23.2 27.5 2.3 2.5 1.4 GDP (US$ millions) 1,946 3,628 5,494 18,963 4.6 4.9 4.0 (% of GDP) Agriculture 61.8 51.6 40.8 37.0 4.0 2.5 3.3 Industry 11.9 16.2 22.1 15.4 8.7 7.1 2.7 Manufacturing 4.3 6.1 9.4 6.5 9.3 8.9 1.2 Services 26.3 32.1 37.0 47.6 3.9 6.2 4.6 Household final consumption expenditure 82.2 84.3 75.9 77.8 .. .. 3.6 General gov't final consumption expenditure 6.7 8.7 8.9 10.7 .. .. 6.0 Gross capital formation 18.3 18.1 24.3 34.9 .. .. 12.4 Exports of goods and services 11.5 10.5 23.3 10.0 .. .. -1.5 Imports of goods and services 18.7 21.7 32.4 33.4 .. .. 6.7 Gross savings .. .. .. .. Note: Figures in italics are for years other than those specified. .. indicates data are not available. Development Economics, Development Data Group (DECDG). 61 Nepal Balance of Payments and Trade 2000 2012 Governance indicators, 2000 and 2012 (US$ millions) Total merchandise exports (fob) 971 1,008 Voice and accountability Total merchandise imports (cif) 1,713 5,613 Net trade in goods and services -658 -4,918 Polit ical stability and absence of violence Current account balance 173 909 Regulat ory quality as a % of GDP 3.2 4.8 Rule of law Personal transfers and compensation of employees (receipts) 111 4,793 Control of corruption Reserves, including gold 953 2,345 0.0 25.0 50.0 75.0 100.0 20 12 Country's percentile rank (0-100) Central Government Finance higher values imply better ratings 20 00 (% of GDP) Source: Worldw ide Governance Indicators (w w w .govindicators.org) Current revenue (including grants) 12.2 18.6 Tax revenue 8.7 15.9 Current expenditure 9.4 13.5 Technology and Infrastructure 2000 2012 Overall surplus/deficit -3.3 -0.6 Paved roads (% of total) 53.9 53.9 Highest marginal tax rate (%) Fixed line and mobile phone Individual .. .. subscribers (per 100 people) 1 56 Corporate .. .. High technology exports (% of manufactured exports) 0.0 0.3 External Debt and Resource Flows Environment (US$ millions) Total debt outstanding and disbursed 2,878 3,818 Agricultural land (% of land area) 29 30 Total debt service 102 223 Forest area (% of land area) 27.2 25.4 Debt relief (HIPC, MDRI) – – Terrestrial protected areas (% of land area) 17.0 17.0 Total debt (% of GDP) 52.4 20.1 Freshwater resources per capita (cu. meters) 8,223 7,298 Total debt service (% of exports) 7.5 9.5 Freshwater withdrawal (billion cubic meters) .. .. Foreign direct investment (net inflows) 0 92 CO2 emissions per capita (mt) 0.14 0.14 Portfolio equity (net inflows) 0 0 GDP per unit of energy use (2005 PPP $ per kg of oil equivalent) 2.7 3.2 Composition of total external debt, 2012 Energy use per capita (kg of oil equivalent) 350 383 Short-term, 113 Private, 2 IBRD, 0 Bilateral, 354 World Bank Group portfolio 2000 2011 IDA, 1,459 (US$ millions) IBRD Total debt outstanding and disbursed – – Disbursements – – Other multi- lateral, 1,686 Principal repayments – – IMF, 204 Interest payments – – US$ millions IDA Total debt outstanding and disbursed 1,132 1,459 Disbursements 49 77 Private Sector Development 2000 2012 Total debt service 24 57 Time required to start a business (days) – 29 IFC (fiscal year) Cost to start a business (% of GNI per capita) – 33.0 Total disbursed and outstanding portfolio 75 17 Time required to register property (days) – 5 of which IFC own account 50 17 Disbursements for IFC own account 12 4 Ranked as a major constraint to business 2000 2012 Portfolio sales, prepayments and (% of managers surveyed who agreed) repayments for IFC own account 0 5 n.a. .. .. n.a. .. .. MIGA Gross exposure 33 29 Stock market capitalization (% of GDP) 14.4 21.9 New guarantees 0 0 Bank capital to asset ratio (%) .. .. Note: Figures in italics are for years other than those specified. 2/11/14 .. indicates data are not available. – indicates observation is not applicable. Development Economics, Development Data Group (DECDG). 62 Millennium Development Goals Nepal With selected targets to achieve b etween 1990 and 2015 (estimate closest to date shown, +/- 2 years) Nepal Goal 1: halve the rates for extreme poverty and malnutrition 1990 1995 2000 2012 Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP, % of population) .. 68.0 .. 24.8 Poverty headcount ratio at national poverty line (% of population) .. .. .. 25.2 Share of income or consumption to the poorest qunitile (%) .. 7.9 .. 8.3 Prevalence of malnutrition (% of children under 5) .. 44.1 43.0 29.1 Goal 2: ensure that children are able to complete primary schooling Primary school enrollment (net, %) 70 .. 76 97 Primary completion rate (% of relevant age group) 52 .. 66 .. Secondary school enrollment (gross, %) 32 41 35 44 Youth literacy rate (% of people ages 15-24) 50 .. 70 82 Goal 3: eliminate gender disparity in education and empower women Ratio of girls to boys in primary and secondary education (%) 55 68 74 106 Women employed in the nonagricultural sector (% of nonagricultural employment) .. .. 14 .. Proportion of seats held by women in national parliament (%) 6 3 6 33 Goal 4: reduce under-5 mortality by two-thirds Under-5 mortality rate (per 1,000) 142 109 82 42 Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live births) 99 78 61 34 Measles immunization (proportion of one-year olds immunized, %) 57 56 71 86 Goal 5: reduce maternal mortality by three-fourths Maternal mortality ratio (modeled estimate, per 100,000 live births) 770 550 360 170 Births attended by skilled health staff (% of total) 7 9 12 36 Contraceptive prevalence (% of women ages 15-49) 24 29 37 50 Goal 6: halt and begin to reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS and other major diseases Prevalence of HIV (% of population ages 15-49) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 Incidence of tuberculosis (per 100,000 people) 163 163 163 163 Tuberculosis case detection rate (%, all forms) 33 56 74 71 Goal 7: halve the proportion of people without sustainable access to basic needs Access to an improved water source (% of population) 67 72 77 88 Access to improved sanitation facilities (% of population) 7 14 21 35 Forest area (% of land area) 33.7 30.5 27.2 25.4 Terrestrial protected areas (% of land area) 7.7 14.0 17.0 17.0 CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 GDP per unit of energy use (constant 2005 PPP $ per kg of oil equivalent) 2.3 2.6 2.7 3.2 Goal 8: develop a global partnership for development Telephone mainlines (per 100 people) 0.3 0.4 1.1 2.7 Mobile phone subscribers (per 100 people) 0.0 0.0 0.0 52.8 Internet users (per 100 people) 0.0 0.0 0.2 11.1 Households with a computer (%) .. .. 0.4 7.8 Education indicators (%) Measles immunization (% of 1-year ICT indicators (per 100 people) olds) 125 100 60 100 50 75 75 40 50 50 30 25 20 25 0 10 2000 2005 2010 0 0 1990 1995 2000 2012 2000 2005 2010 Pr imar y net enr ollment ratio Ratio of girls to boys in primary & secondary Nepal South Asia Fixed + mobile subscribers Internet users education Note: Figures in italics are for years other than those specified. .. indicates data are not available. 2/11/14 Development Economics, Development Data Group (DECDG). 63 80°E 82°E 86°E 88°E 84°E To Barga Simikot 30°N 30°N NEPAL To Ranikhet L¯I ¯i ¯ al ak KA ah M H CHINA HA Chainpur Baitadi ¯ L¯ KARNA I MA S E T¯ I Silgadhi i Dandeldhura ¯ Jumla Ka rn ali m Mustan IR¯ I Dunai a G B H E R¯ I Jomsom LA Dhangarhi Birendranagar l A ¯ G A N D A K¯ To AW I Xegar a i Sallyan K al H Baglung D Pokhara Tulsipur y Mt. Everest 28°N Nepalganj ¯ P T¯ RA I a (8848 m) 28°N Kodan To ¯ G M A T¯ BA I To Lucknow s ¯T H ¯ A Shahajahanpur Nuwakot L U M B I N¯ I KATHMANDU KATHMANDU Butawal ani Lalitpur N ary RMA This map was produced by the Map Design Unit of The World Bank. The boundaries, colors, denominations and any other information To Faizabad Bhairawa Bhimphedi Ar un M E C H¯ I Taplejun K O S¯ shown on this map do not imply, on the part of The World Bank Okhaldhunga Group, any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or any Hetauda I To SAGA endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. ¯ ¯YANI NARAYANI NARA NARAY ¯ Sindhulimadi Ramechhap Saidpur To Faizabad Birganj JANAKPUR Dhankuta shi Sun Ko Ilam NEPAL Lucknow To Gaur Dharan Faizabad INDIA Janakpur Rajbiraj Kanpur SELECTED CITIES AND TOWNS Biratnagar To ZONE CAPITALS Baruni To NATIONAL CAPITAL Faizabad To Baruni RIVERS 26°N 26°N MAIN ROADS 0 25 50 75 100 Kilometers RAILROADS SEPTEMBER 2004 0 25 50 75 Miles IBRD 33455 To ZONE BOUNDARIES Baruni To Jangipur INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARIES 82°E 84°E 86°E 88°E