I ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~I£' i S,, t *S; - aB>e,,>ke' t-X: ', X.\9, Y . ' .S': 't Xq.b p- The Population, Agriculture and Environment Nexus in Sub-Saharan.Africa Kein M. Cleaver and GOJz A. Schrelber WORLD BANK AFRICA REGION Over the past 30 years, most of Sub-Saharan Africa has seen very rapid population growth, poor agricultural performance, and increasing environmental degradation. Why do these problems seem so intractable? Are they connected? Do they reinforce each other? If so, what are the critical links? These are questions that this study seeks to answer. The approach was to review the literature and available country data to test the hypothesis that there are strong inter- relationships between these phenomena. The findings suggest that this nexus is very much at work in Sub-Saharan Africa and that development efforts would be far more effective if their design reflected this. Key links are found in traditional crop and livestock production methods, land tenure systems, women's responsibilities, and methods of forest resource utilization The traditional systems and practices were well suited to people's survival needs when population densities were low. As populations grew slowly, they evolved in response. But with the acceleration of population growth in the 1950s, these traditional ways came under increasing strain - eventually to the point of being overwhelmed. The results have been the triad of problems noted at the outset. The solutions to these problems are complex, which is why effective responses have not been forthcoming on a wide scale. The study suggests an action plan involving agricultural intensification, rAeasures to increase demand by Africans for smaller families, land tenure reform, conservation efforts to address environmental problems, and actions to deal with the special problems of women. Important themes include the necessity for Africans themselves to lead this process. There is also an important need for incentives to create demand for agricultural intensification, for smaller families, and for conservation. The importance of relying on inter- relationships between these various parts of the solution in arriving at a significant impact on the problem is emphasized; hence the idea of a nexus of problems, and of solutions. Several country-specific population, agriculture and environment nexus studies have been initiated to deepen this work, including in C6te d'Ivoire, Malawi, Nigeria, Rwanda and the Sahel as a sub- region. In addition data collection and statistical analysis of the hypotheses and findings described in this book are ongoing. This material will be added to the present text for formal publication as a World Bank document later in 1992. Ismail Serageldin Director Technical Department Africa Region World Bank May 1992 Acronyms and Abbrnviations Used AIDS - Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome CFCs - Chlorofluorocarbons CMR - Child Mortality Rate CNN - Cloud Condensation Nuclei CPR - Contraceptive Prevalence Rate DHS - Denographic and Health Survey PAO - Pood anid Agriculture Organization of the United Nations PHH - Female-Headed Household FP - Family Planning GEF - Global En-ironmnental Facility HYV - Higher-Yielding Variety lARCs - International Agricultural Research Centers IEC - Information, Education and Communication IIrA - International Institute of Tropical Agriculture IMR - Infant Motality Rate IPM - Integrated Pest Management ITrO - International Tropical Tinber Organization ITCZ - inter-Tropical Convection Zone IUCN - World Conservation Union (formerly Intemational Union for Conservation of Nature) LPG - Liquefied Petroleum Gas MCH - Maternal and Child Health NARS - National Agricultural Research Systemn NGO - Non-Govenmental Organization NRR - Net Reproduction Rate SPAAR - Special Program for African Agricultuml Research SSA - Sub-Saharan Africa STDs - Sexually Transmitted Diseases TFR - Total Pertlity Rate UNEP - United Nations Environment Programme WFS - World Fertility Survey Acknowledgmenb This study benefated from consiwerable input by various daff members of the World Bank and people outside the Bankl S. Yalamanchili, Sandy Gain and Pushpa Schwarlz contributed satitical material. An inital report seting out the hypotes to be sudied was the subject of a seminar held at the World Bank in June 1990, chaired by Michel Petit. Subsequently, seminar were had with the Country Department of the Africa Region of the World BanL Drafts of the study have been presented to representatives of African govemmas and donor agencies as wall as non-govenmental organizations at the West and Cental African Rain Forest Conservation Conferene in Abidjan in October 1990, academic fora organized by Monclair College in New Jrsey in November 1990 and by the Harvand Center for Population and Developme Studies in March 1992, an international conference on population issucs in Africa organizod by the Govenment of Frnce in September 1991, staff of USAID in July 1990 and lanuary 1992, and officials of the Frnch Caine Ceantal de Cooperstion Economique in Paris in January 1992. Members of the World Bank Africa Region's Thmatic Team on the Population, Agticulure and Environment Neun have also provided comments and inpuL Thes various inputs, and additional earch tinwlated by the comments aw suggestions received, have re ted in this revised draft. A formal review in the World Bank of the final draft in Decenber 1991 was chaired by Michel Petit. Special thanks for support, comments, uggesions and contributions ar due to: Kim Jaycox, Robet MoNamana, Michel Petit, Steve O'Brien, Ismail Serageldin, Caio Koch-Wsoer, Anand Seth, bhrat Z. Husain, Michael Gillette, Pier Landell- Mills, Fred Sai, Dunstan Wai, shnat Husain, John Peberdy, Dennis Mahar, Leif Christoffence, Faunois Falloux, John English, Susan Cochrnme, Althea Hill, Harry Walter, Agi Kiss, Franois Wnacu, Zoanne Salop, Jean Doycn, Cynthia Cook, Wilern Floor, Mary Dyson, Eizbeth Morris-Hughes, Julia Clone, Paul Shaw, John Spean, Moctar Tour6, Phillippo Caquard, Montague Yudelman, Allen KoeUy, Michael Paolwso, and staff of the FAO and the French Caius Centralm . Finally, the comments and suUgstions of three anoym s rviewe hcve becn most useful and ar acknowledgod with particular gratitude. The Population, Aericulture and Environment Nexus In Sub-Saharan Africa Table gf Contents Executive Sunmmary ...................... vii I. Summary and Conclusions ....................................... 1 A. Objectives of the Study .1 B. The Nexus: An Hypothesis .1 C. Critical Linkages. 3 (i) Shifting cultivation and transhumant pastoralism. 3 (ii) Land and tree tenure systems. 4 (iii) Women's time and their role in agriculture and rural production systems .. S (iv) The rural energy economy and traditional fuelwood provision .5 (v) Logging, forest management, and settler influx into forest areas. 6 (vi) Interaction with policy constraints and other structural problems. 6 D. Population Growth Revisited: Feedback from the Nexus . . 7 E. The Evidence.. 7 H. Agricultural Stagnation and Environmental Degradation .... . 8 A. Agricultural Stagnation, Population Growth and Food Security. 8 B. The Deteriorating Natural Resource Base and Ecological Environment. 9 (i) Deforestation. 9 (ii) Soil degradation and erosion .11 (iii) Rangeland degradation and desertification .13 (iv) Water resource depletion and degradation .13 (v) Environmental degradation and climatic change .14 (vi) Environmental degradation and agricultural stagnation .16 m. Population Growth .18 A. The Lagging Demographic Transition .18 B. Fertility and Agriculture: Pat of the Nexus? .21 Box: Statistical analysis to explain inter-country variaions in totalfertility rates (IFRs). 25 IV. The Nexus Between Population Growth, Agricultural Stagnation and Environmental Degradation ..26 A. TheMainLinkages .26 B. Traditional Cultivation and Livestock Husbandry Methods .27 C. Land and Tree Tenure Systems and the Nexus .30 D. Deforestation, Fuelwood, and the Nexus .36 E. Logging . .......................................... 39 Box: Statistical analysis to explain iner-country variations in crop yies ................... 41 Box: Statistical analysis to explain Inter-counny variations in the rate of deforestation .... ....... 43 Box: Statistical analysis to explain Inter-country variations in the loss of wilderness area .... ..... 44 - iv - Table of Contents (coatinued) V. The Role of Women In Rural Production Systems .. 45 A. Introduction. 45 B. The Female-Headed Household Syndrome .46 C. The Gender Division of Rural Labor and Farming Systems .47 D. The Separation of Budgets .53 E. Farm Technology and Gender .55 F. Women's Time Use and Productivity .57 VI. A Framework for Action .60 A. A Continental Perspective ..60 (i) Some basic targets .60 (ii) Accelerating agricultural growth .60 Box: Are annual cereal yield increases of 3.5 percent achievable? .... 62 (iii) Managing forest resources .64 Box: What wil it take to arrest deforestation? .64 (iv) Conserving wilderness areas .............................. 66 (v) Summary .66 B. Some Country-Specific Targets and Implications ..67 VII. Reducing Population Growth ..72 A. Population Policy .72 (i) Key issues and challenges .72 (ii) Promoting demand for fewer children .74 (iii) Improving the supply of, and access to, family planning services .76 B. Primary Education .77 C. Conclusion .78 VIII. Promoting Sustainable Agricultural Development .79 A. Sustainabie and Environmentally Benign Agriculture .79 (i) Soil conservation and fertility management .81 (ii) Water management .86 (iii) Livestock production and utilization .87 (iv) Inputs . 89 (v) Agro-forestry .91 (vi) Stoves that save fuel and women's time .93 B. Policy and Institutional Aspects .95 (i) Land policy and tenure reform .95 (ii) Agricultural support services .96 (iii) Exchange rate, trade, fiscal and pricing policies .99 (iv) Local institutions: involving the people .100 table of Contents (continued) IX. Infrastructure Development, Migration and Urbanization ................. 102 A. Infrastructure Development .................................. 102 (i) Transport ........................................ 102 (ii) Water supply ....................................... 104 (iii) Infrastructure and environmental conservation ................. 105 B. Migration and Settlement Policy .............. ................. 105 C. Urbanization .......................................... 107 X. Environment and Natural Resources ..11................. i A. Production versus Protection ........... ...................... 111 B. Forest and Conservation Areas ................11............... I C. Dryland Areas and Pasture Land ............. ................ 118 D. Water .......................................... 119 D. National F,nvironmental Action Plans (NEAPs) ..................... 119 XI. Condusion ................... I..... I ................. 121 A. IThe Problem ....................... 121 B. Recommendations fbr Action ....................... 122 C. Status of Implementation ....................... 126 D. Conclusion and Issues ....................... 127 Annex: Statistical Tests of Key Hypotheses ................ .......... 131 Statistical Appendix .......................... 147 Bibliography ....................... 173 Map: Estimated Annual Population Growth (1986-200) and Per Capita Potentdal Arable Land (in hectares) In 2010 TIHE POPULATION, AGRICULTURE AND ENVIRON4ENT NEXUS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Executve Summary A. Tbe Three Basic Concerns i. Populaton Growth. Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) lags behind other regions in its demographic transition. The total fertility rate CMFF) for SSA as a whole has remained at about 6.5 for the past 25 years, while it has declined to about 4 in all developing countries taken together.' As life expectancy in Sub-Saharan Africa has risen from an average of 43 years in 1965 to 51 years at present, population growth has accelerated from an average of 2.7 percent per annum for 1965- 1980 to about 3.1 percent per year at present. Recent surveys appear to signal, howeier, that several countries - notably Botswana, Zimbabwe, Kenya - are at or near a critical demographic turning point. H. Agrcuaunld Perfonnauce. Agricultural production in Sub-Saharan Africa increased at about 2.0 percent per annum between 1965 and 1980 and at about 2.1 percent annually during the 1980s. Average per capita food production has declined in many countries, per capita calorie consumaption has stagnated at very low levels, and roughly 100 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa are food insecure. Food imports increased by about 185 percent between 1974 and 1990, food aid by 295 percent. But the food gat prements minus production) - filled by food imports, or by many people going with less than what they need - is widening. The average African consumes only about 87 percent of the calories needed for a healthy and productive life. iii. Env*nnmwntenl Degradation. Sub-Saharan Africa's forest cover, estimated at about 679 million hectares in 1980, has been diminishing at a rate of about 3.7 million ha per annum, and the rate of deforestation has been increasing. As much as half of SSA's farm land is affected by soil degradation and erosion, and up to 80 percent of its pasture and range areas show signs of degradation. Degraded soils lose their fertility and water absorption and retention capacity, with adverse effects on vegetative growth. Deforestation has significant negative effects on local and regional rainfall and hydrological systems. The widespread destruction of vegetative cover has been a significant factor in prolonging the period of below long-term average rainfall in the Sahel in the 1970s and 1980s. It also is a major cause of the rapid increase in the accumulation of carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrous oxide (N20), two greenhouse gases, in the atmosphere. Massive biomass burning in Sub-Saharan Africa (savanna burning and slash-and-bum farming) contributes vast quantities of CO2 and other trace gases to the global atmosphere. Acid deposition is higher in the Congo Basin and in C0te d'Ivoire than in the Amazon or in the eastern United States and is largely caused by direct emissions from biomass burning and by subsequent photochemical reactions in the resulting smoke and gas plumes. Tropical forests are considerably mo:e sensitive than temperate forests to foliar damage from acid rain. Soil fertility is reduced through progressive acidification. Acid deposition also poses a serious risk to amphibians and insects that have aquatic life cycle stages; this risk extends further to plants that depend on such insects for pollination. 1 The tot. fauly ritu TR) is te mimber of chidren the avomap woman has in a lifetiom. - viii - B. The Nexs In Brlef iv. Sub-Saharan Africa's demographic, agricultural and environmental problems are closely linked in a nexus of multiple and mutually reinforcing causality chains. Key linkages are found in traditional crop production and livestock husbandry methods, traditional land t-,nure systems and land use practices, traditional responsibilities of women in rural production and household maintenance systems, and traditional methods of utilizing woodland and forest resources. These systems and practices, well suited to people's survival needs on Africa's fragile resource endowment when population densities were low and populations stable or growing only slowly, came under increasing strain with the rapid acceleration of population growth that began when mortality rates declined sharply in the 1950s while birth rates remained high. The pace of evolution of these systems has been inadequate in the face of dramatically intensifying pressure of more people on finite stocks of natural resources. v. Traditional land use and forest exploitation practices have become major direct causes of environmental degradation and resource depletion. This degradation reduces the productivity and resilience of natural resource systems. Despite considerable investment in yield-increasing technology, crop yields, especially of food crops, have stagnated or declined in many countries, retarding agricultural growth. Slow agricultural growth, contributing to slow aggregate economic growth, impedes the onset of the demographic transition from high to iow birth rates. Rapidly growing poor rural populations increasingly degrade and mine the natural resources of the rural environment to ensure their own day-to-day survival. And continuing rapid population growth ties up scarce resources to meet current survival and consumotion needs which couid otherwise be used to create the base for less resource-intensive and more sustainable developm-tt. vi. Many other factors also have a detrimental impact on agriculture and the environment. These include civil wars, poor rural infrastructure, lack of private investment in agrieultural marketing and processing, and ineffective agricultural support services. Inappropriate price, exchange rate and fiscal policies pursued by many governments have reduced the profitability and increased the risk of market-oriented agriculture, prevented significant gains in agricultural productivity and contributed to the persistence of rural poverty. A necessary condition for overcoming the problems of agricultural stagnation and environmental degradation will be, therefore, appropriate policy improvements along the lines suggested in the 1989 World Bank report on Sub-Saharan Africa's longer-term development prospects (World Bank, 1989d). C. Key Elements of the Nexus vii. Shifi Cudlvation and Tinslhwnant PastorUlsmn. Shifting or long-fallow cultivation and transhumant pastoralism have been approprate under conditions of slow population growth, abundant land, limited capital and limited technical know-how. The ecological and economic systems were in equilibrium. The key to maintaining this equilibrium was mobility. People shifted to a different location when soil ferdlity declined or forage was depleted. This allowed the fertility of the 1'nd to be reconstituted through natural vegetative growth and decay. For field cropping, this t.pically involved farming a piece of land for two to four years, then leaving it fallow for as long as 15 to 25 years. Herders' mobility generally involved a far greater geographic range, but a far shorter temporal cycle, dictated by the seasonal availability of water and forage. viii. As long as land was abundant, more land could be gradually brought into the farming cycle to accommodate the slowly growing populations. Where population density increased slowly, the traditional extensive agricultural production systems gradually evolved into more intensive, and - ix - eventually permanent, systems which included soi conservation, fertility management, var,ous forms of agro-forestry and the integration of livestock into farming systems. This has happened, for instance, in the Eastern African highlands as well as in some of the more densely setled arom of northern Nigeria. ix. But in most of Sub-Saharan Africa the scope for further expansion of crop land has drastically narrowed. Large areas of forests, wetlands, river valley bottoms and grassland savanna have already been converted to farmland. On average, per capita arable land actually cultivated declined from 0.5 ha per person in 1965 to 0.3 ha/person in 1987 (it averaged 0.4 ha/person in China in 1987). In many areas, rural people are increasingly compelled to remain on the same parcel of land, yet they continue to use their traditional production techniques. Soil fertility and strucre deteriorate rapidly where fallow periods are too short and traditional cultivation methods continue to be used. As a result, crop yields decline and soils erode. In most areas, population growth has been so rapid that the reduction of arable land per farmer and the associated soil degradation have greatly outpaced the countervailing innovation and adjustment by farmers. When farming is no longer viable, people migrate to establish new farms on land previously not used for farming - in semi-arid areas and in tropical forests where soil and climatic conditions are poorly suited to anmnal cropping. Migrants bring with them the knowledge of only those farming techniques tLey practiced in the areas they abandoned, and these are often detrimental to their new environment. X. There is considerable diversity among countries, and in some countries land still appears to be more abundant in relation to their current population. But much of this land is under tropical forests which need to be preserved. Yet even in these more land-abundant countries, rapid population growth is pushing settlers to extend farming and grazing into areas that are agro-ecologically unsuited to these forms of land use. xi. One of the conditions which stimulated Asian farmers to adopt "green revolution" technology - the abundance of labor relative to cultivable land - is increasingly emerging in parts of SSA. But institutions a; d individuals have not been able to adapt rapidly enough in the face of very rapid population growth. Sluw technological innovation because of ineffective agricultural research and extension systems is only part of the reason. The poor transport infrastructure throughout most of SSA severely blunts fanmers' incentives to switch from subsistence to market production and from extensive to intensive farming. nappropriate agricultural marketing and pricing as well as fiscal and exchange rate policies have reduced the profitability of market-oriented agriculture, prevented significant gains in agricultural productivity and contributed to the persistence of rural poverty. Many poorly conceived and implemented agricultural projects have nwt helped. xii. Women's 7Yme, and Their Role In Rural Pmdudio and Household Maintenane Systems. In a,,i'tion to those associated with bearing and rearing children, African women bear heavy responsC.ilities for foodcrop production, weeding and harvesting on men's fields, post-harvest processing, fuelwood and water provision, and household maintenance. In traditional settings this worked well, as both genders had clearly defined and complementary roles to ensure the present and future welfare of family, village, clan and/or tribe. But the burdens on rural women are increasing, as population growth outpaces the evolution of agricultural technology and growing nunbers of men leave the fanns for urban and industrial jobs. As forests and woodlands are cleared or severely degraded, it takes more time and effort to collect fuelwood. Deforestation and soil structure deterioration, combined with declining rainfall, reduce groundwater recharge and make water scarcer. Women must walk further to fetch water and fuelwood - and get their daughters to help them. In most of rural SSA, women also are the primary "beasts of burden," spending substantial dme headloading not only water and fuelwood, but also farm produce and other commodities to and from - x . their homes. Producing the needed food on increasingly less fertile plots and with diminished time becomes more difficult. Women also face severe restrictions on access to extension advice, institutional credit, and improved production, processing and transport technology. These constraints, combined with increasing pressure on women's time, severely Impede productivity improvements and the intensification of women's farming operations. xiii. Many factors underlie the persistence of very high human fertility rates. Tbe fundamental problem is low demand for fewer children. Environmental degradation, agricultural problems, food insecurity and poverty, and the heavy work burdens of women all play a part in this respect. Children provide social standing for their parents as well as some prospect of economic support in old age. In the short term, cbildren also can produce more than they consume. Women's time constraints and reduced availability of water and fuelwood have implications for infant and child health and mortality and, hence, on fertility aspirations and attitudes toward family planning. Where girls are kept out of school to help with domestic tasks, this negatively affects their fertility preferences and their ability to make knowledgeable decisions about family rlanning once they reach childbearing age. Polygamy and the widespread practice of women marrying at an early age and marrying considerably older men tend to increase women's eventual economic and social dependency on sons and, hence, their willingness to bear many children. The very young age at which women tend to marry increases the number of fecund years spent in union. In many traditional land tenure systems, as in open access systems, the amount of land allotted for farming is a function of the ability to clear and cultivate it - i.e., of family labor. The severe time pressure and the constraints faced by women in their farming and other income-earning activities may be preventing the emergence of women's demand for fewer children. There has been little progress in easing the constraints on women's productivity, their capacity to earn and control incomes, and their ability to assume greater control over their own fertility. xiv. Land and Tree Tenure Systems. Traditional tenure systems in SSA, with communal land ownership, provide considerable tenurial security on land farmed by community members (although women's tenurial security is generally far less certain than that of men.' Strangers (i.e., non-members of the community) may obtain use rights, but usually with considerably less long-term security. As long as populations increased only slowly, traditional systems also were able to accommodate the emerging need to move towards defacto permanence of land rights assignation. Other aspects of traditional tenure systems have not adjusted rapidly enough to changing economic conditions. Often, the individual user's ability to transfer land use rights remains subject to significant constraints. Tree tenure arrangements are often distinctly separate from land use rights pertaining to thie cultivation of annual crops, and this can result in serious conflict. Much common property land - forests, wetlands, and range lands - has become defacto open-access land and been converted to farming. In many areas where traditional land use rights provided for overlapping and complementary uses by sedentary farmers and transhumant herders, the development of valley bottoms into permanent crop land has created major constraints on the mobility of herders, with negative implications for environmental integrity. Increasing population pressure and agro- environmental problems are inducing considerable rural-rural migration. Since migrants often come with conflicting traditioan of land allocation and land use, strangers' tenurial rights and their implications for land rest .ce conservation are of increasing concern. xv. Most governments and donors have mistakenly believed that traditional tenure systems provide inadequate tenurial security and that they could not adjust rapidly enough to changing dem3graphic realities, agricultural technology developments and market forces. They also witnessed the erosion in customary laws and practices regulating land use which occurred as a result of significant rural-rural migration, changes in social values and customs, and ambiguities created by - xi - the overlaying of "modem" land administration systems over traditional ones. In many instances, this led to the emergence of de facto open-access systems which are not conducive to resource conservation or to investments in soil fertility maintenance and land Improvement. xvi. Many governments have responded by nationalizing die ownership of land - and th.en allowing customary rules to guide the use of some land, while allocating other land to private investors and public projects. Often, the well-connected have used their influence to wrest land from its customary owner-occupants. The result has been reduced, rather than improved, tenurial security. In most cases, this has accelerated the breakdown in customary land management and the creation of open access conditions, especially in forest and range areas, where settlement and exploitation by anyone are permitted and environmental degradation is invariably rapid. Where governments allocated individual land titles - as in Kenya, Zimbabwe and COte d'Ivoire - this generally ignored the prior existence of customary tenure arrangements, and more often than not, the actual results have differed considerably from the stated intent. Local community and individual land resource management has been discouraged, while political and economic elites have succeeded in alienating the land from its traditional owners and users. This has skewed land distribution and intensified the exploitation of land resources for private short-term gain. xvii. Forest and Woodland Exploitaton. The heavy dependency on wood for fuel and building material has combined with rapid population growth to contribute to accelerating forest and woodland destruction. This is particularly severe around major urban centers where it has led to the appearance of concentric rings of deforestation. Fuelwood has generally been considered a free good, taken largely from land to which everyone has the right of access. This has impeded the development of efficient markets for fuelwood. Urban woodfuel prices reflect primarily transport costs, not the cost of producing trees, and there is no incentive to plant trees for fuelwood production until transpurt costs to urban markets become high enough to justify peri-urban planting. This is only beginning to happen around some cities and in very densely populated areas. Alternative fuels, such as kerosene or LPG, are more costly to obtain, not available in open-access conditions, and are therefore not replacing woodfuels in significant quantities. xviii. Commercial logging has significantly contributed to deforestation. Although directly responsible for no more than 20 percent of forest destruction in SSA as a whole, it has been considerably more destructive in snme countries, such as CBte d'Ivoire. Moreover, logging usually leads to a second phase of forest destruction: logging roads provide access for settlers who accelerate and expand the process of deforestation that the loggers have begun. Logging concessions rarely take into account the traditional land and forest use rights of forest dwellers. These rights, once eroded, a;e disregarded by new settlers penetrating along the logging roads. xix. The degradation and destruction of forests and woodlands accelerates soil degradation and erosion, eliminates wildlife habitat, leads to loss of biodiversity, and has severe implications for local and regional climates and hydro?ogical regimes. Deteriorating climatic and hydrological conditions negatively affect agriculture. The worsening fuelwood situation forces women and children to walk further and spend more time to co'e fuelwood. Closely related, and increasingly of concern, is the fact that animal dmng and crop residues are being used as fuels. Under conditions of shortening fallows, characteristic of much of SSA, their economic utility is far greater when they are used to maintain soil fertility. People also must walk furter and/or pay more for building materials and the many important non-wood forest products they depend upon for medicinal purposes, home consumption and traditional crafts and industries. For forest dwelling people, forest destruction threatens not merely their lifestyles and livelihood systems, but their very survival. - xli - D. An Action Plan xx. The appropriate policy response and action program to address these problems are not obvious. Many of the most immediately attractive remedies have been tried and have failed. For example, individual land titling - intended to clarify resource ownership, prevent further degraeation of common property regimes into de facto open-access situations, and improve tenurial sectu ity - has been tried in several countries and has been beset by significant problems. Similarly, efforts to introduce modern' agricultural technology In the form of higher-yielding varieties, chemical fertlizer and farm mechanization have not met with great response from farmers. Soil conservation and forest protection efforts have had little success outside of relatively small areas. And efforts to slow population growth through programs based primarily on the supply of family planning services and the distribution of contraceptives have not been very successfil in most SSA countries. xxi. Some Basic Targets. Indicative aggregate targets regarding fertility rates, food availability, agricultural growth and environmental protection illustrate the magnitude of the effort required. Reaching these targets will be far more likely by focusing on the synergetic effects inherent in the linkages of the nexus. There are, of course, wide variations in what is necessary and attainable in each country, and country-specific targets will need to reflect this. xxii. For SSA as a whole, agricultural production needs to grow at about 4 percent per arnum during the period 1990-2020. Daily per capita calorie intake should be increased from the present average of 2,027 to about 2,400 by the year 2010. Although the share of the population that is food insecure should be reduced from the present 25 percent to zero as rapidly as possible, it is more realistic to aim for a reduction to 10 percent by the year 2010 and to 5 percent by 2020. The rate of deforestation needs to be slowed, and the area of forests and woodlands should be gradually stabilized. Loss of remaining wilderness areas should also be minimized: about 23 percent of SSA's total land area could be maintained as wilderness (compared with about 27 percent today). To preserve wilderness and forest areas, cropped land can only be increased from 7.0 percent of SSA's total land area at present to about 8.3 percent in 2020. The arithmetic of these indicative agricultural, food security and environmental objectives requires a reduction in population growth from the present average anmnua rate of over 3.1 percent to 2.3 percent per annum in the third decade of the next century. This will require lowering the average TFR by 50 percent between today and the year 2020. xxiii. Reducing FeriUty Rates. A key aspect will be to increase demand for fewer children. Increasing girls' school enrollment rates is critical. Better health care services and access to safe water wiUl improve child survival rates and, hence, lower the demand for children. Educational efforts, directed at both men and women, are needed to raise awareness of the benefits of fewer children. Women's work loads need to be eased to reduce the need for child labor. Dynamic agricultural development and improved food security will also reduce the demand for children. Kenya, Zimbabwe, Botswana and Mauritius, where the TFR is declining, provide strong evidence. These countries have relatively high population densities on cultivated land, relatively high female school enrollment rates, relatively low infat mortality, active family planning (FP) programs, among the best p-rforming agricultural sectors, and relatively good food security sitations. xxiv. As demand for reducing fertility rises, it must be effectively met with increased supply of FP services and contraceptives. But supply must follow demand - it cannot lead it. Where AIDS is a problem, improved health care, PP services and education focused on preventing sexually transmitted diseases and increasing the use of condoms become even more important. - xiii - xxV. Promodng Environmentaly Sustinabk Agdcult. Farm productivity per unit area must be raised significandy to generate more output with little increase in the area farmed. To minimize negative impacts on the environment, much more emphasis is required on 'environmentally benign and sustainable" technologies. Land-saving technology will allow forests and other fragile areas to be protected. Numerous environmentally benign and economically viable agricultural techniques have been developed and successfully applied, often through adaptation of traditional practices that have evolved in response to local agro-ecological and socio-economic conditions. Examples include contour farming, minimum tillage, mulching, "managed' fallowing, numerous crop rotation and intercropping systems, vegetative and soil bunding, a variety of agro-forestry practices, integrated pest management, water harvesting and small-scale irrigation. Integrating livestock into farming systems and promoting animal traction will be important. Soil and moisture conservation needs to receive strong emphasis. xxvi. Agricultural research and extension services need to focus less on mono-crop technologies and farm mechanization and much more on the above types of technologies, adapting them to local conditions and making them available to farmers in "menu" form for selective adoption. Women must become the target of such efforts to a much greater extent. These technologies are far more likely to find widespread acceptance by farmers. Prescriptive approaches to agricultural intensification are far less suitable in the varied environments of Sub-Saharan Africa - where conservation and management of natural resources, integrated production systems and risk management are critical - than in more homogenous high-potential regions such as the Indo-Gangetic Plain. xxvii. However, intensification with the above technologies alone is unlikely to be sufficient in most SSA countries to achieve agricultural growth rates of 4 percent per year and more. Improved variety/fertilizer/farm mechanization technologies will also be necessary. Increased use of ferdlizers will be especially important to raise yields and maintain soil fertility. So will diversification of production into higher-value crops, for domestic and export markets, to increase rural incomes and to improve food security through income stabilization. It would also be unrealistic, and unnecessary, to preclude bringing more land under cultivation. xxvii. There has been little incentive for farmers to abandon their traditional practices. Intensive and resource-conserving agriculture must be made less risky and more profitable. This requires appropriate marketing, price, tax and exchange rate policies as well as investments in rural infrastructure, health and education facilities. Creating parks, reserves and community-owned range land and protecting these against conversion into crop land will be important to conserve natural resources and biodiversity. So will reducing infrastructure development in forests and other fragile areas to discourage settlement in these areas. Since this will limit the scope for further expansion of cropped land and, potentially, the scope for agricultural production growth, there is a trade-off between conservation and agricultural growth. Creating additional protection areas will only be feasible and sustainable if agricultural production can be intensified at the rate suggested here (i.e., to about a 3.5 percent annual increase in farm output per unit of land farmed). In this sense, conservation and agricultural intensification are complementary. As African farmers have shown, land scarcity leads to agricultural intensification - and if the necessary advice and inputs are available, intensification can be made sustainable and the rate of intensification greatly accelerated. Strengthening tenurial security will also stimulate greater concern for soil fertility management and conservation as well as tree planting. Some sustainable agricultural practices, such as soil conservation, may require initial subsidization to offset extemalities. - xiv - xxix. Easing Women's Tine Constraint and Improving 7teir Productvity. Initiatives in research, extension, infrastructure development, rural technology, and education are needed to ease women's time constraints and improve their productivity. Much can be learned in this regard from the experience of local and international NGOs in establishing rural water supply systems managed by women's groups, developing and popularizing locally appropriate fuel-efficient and time-saving stoves, providing improved farming and crop processing techniques and tools to women, facilitating women's access to land and institutional credit, improving village-level transport infrastructure, and providing intermediate means of transport. Such initiatives should be pursued through projects dealing with agricultural research and extension, rural water supply and transport, credit and land tenure, and in education and training policies which more effectively reach women. XXx. Clarifying Resource Ownership. Urgent action is needed to eliminate open-access systems and to provide legal protection to traditional and private land owners. Local community or individual ownership and management responsibility of natural resources appear to be tha only workable arrangement in Sub-Saharan Africa. Governments alone are not able to protect and conserve land, forest and pasture resources. State-ownership of farm land should be eliminated. Where traditional tenure arrangements continue to work and are evolving toward explicit recognition of individual ownership and transfer rights, these systems should be recognized and protected by law and supported by appropriate administrative arrangements. Land title should be provided to traditional communities, and community land can continue to be allocated according to customary practice. Where traditional mechanisms have completely broken down, individual land titling is likely to be necessary, but it should be provided only on demand and to the traditional or customary owners/occupants. Women need equal rights to land and equal tenurial security as men, especially in view of the increasing number of female heads of households in many rural areas. These actions will require effective mechanisms to assess land ownership and to ensure legal protection to holders of either traditional or modern titles. xxxi. Wherever possible, state-owned pasture and forest lands should be returned to traditional owners and/or local communities, with clear and legally established utilization rights tied to the responsibility for conservation. This must be done with care, however, since many of these communities and their traditional land resource management systems have broken down under the pressure of logging, settler influx, and Government ownership. Where this is the case, resource destruction may simply accelerate if people are given the opportunity. Communities will need appropriate technical assistance in managing these resources. xxxii. Addressing the Fuelwood Problem. Efforts to promote agro-forestry need to be greatly expanded to have a significant impact on the agro-ecological environment, the rural energy economy and women's time. Investment in fuelwood production and tree farming, on a large scale, by farmers and by community groups and private enterprises will not occur unless it is profitable. The incentives are gradually emerging, particularly around major urban areas, as populations grow and forests and woodlands are depleted. But woodfuel markets are developing too slowly, impeded by inappropriate forest, land tenure and energy policies. The pace of market development will be accelerated if open- access sources of fuelwood are eliminated, cutting in protected areas is restricted, farmers are not restricted or taxed in marketing wood from their own land, fees are levied on bringing fuelwood to urban centers so as to provide incentives for wood production near cities, and communities and farmers have uncontested ownership of local forests and woodlands. On the demand side, there is a great need for more fuel- and time-efficient wood and charcoal stoves which can be made by women themselves or by local artisans on a commercial basis. - xv - xxxiii. IfrAutnwtue Development and Settlment Polcy. The importance of rural Infrastructure and of rural towns and secondary cities for promoting agricultural and rural development is well established. Many services provided to rural communities are provided from secondary towns and cities. They also provide the major wholesale markets for agricultural products on their way to major cities and to the ports, as well as the assembly markets for agricultural inputs and consumer goods going to rural areas. The strong bias in urban and infrastructure investments favoring the few major cities needs to be abandoned. Adequate transport links to product markets are major factors associated with the intensification of farming - even where population densities are comparatively low. The high physical barriers and economic costs of transporting goods to local markets sharply reduce farmers' incentives to switch from subsistence to market production and from extensive to intensive farming. Rural roads and improved tracks navigable for animal-drawn vehicles are crucial. Major efforts are also needed to promote the use of locally suitable and appropriate intermediate transport technology, especially animal-drawn implements, and of improved off-road transport. xxxiv. Infrastructure development also has a major impact on the productivity of rural labor and on key determinants of fertility. Roads provide access to health facilities and schools. Water supply and sanitation facilities have significant impact on health and labor productivity. Rural water supply, sanitation, health and education facilities and services are particularly important in terms of their impact on infant and child mortality and on female education - both critical determinants of fertility preferences. xxxv. Carefil locational targeting of infrastructure and urban development can also be a powerful instrument to guide population movement into environmentally resilient areas with agricultural potential and to keep settlers out of fragile areas. xxxvi. NatumI Resource Management and EnvironmentalProtedtion. Environmental resource protection and sustainable management are urgently needed to prevent further degradation and destruction. Establishing conservation areas and protecting forests is conducive to promoting agricultural growth, because they protect watersheds, stabilize local and regional climate and hydrological systems. If the rate of agricultural intensification can be increased as postulated here, the constraining impact of expanding conservation areas on crop land expansion can be offset and conservation will be fully consistent with agricultural growth. Protection of rural environments also ensures the sustainable provision of crucial forest products and environmental services. Particutarly urgent are establishment and maintenance of conservation areas and effective regulation and taxing of logging. Environmental Action Plans are a suitable instrument to plan these and other actions in a coherent manner. Reconciling objectives of natural resource management, settlement and population policy, agricultural and infrastructure development can be accomplished in regional and local land use plans. Local communities and individuals need to be directly involved in the development and implementation of such plans, and they must have ownership of natural resources to manage and conserve these. Mobilization of community and individual participation in natural resource management may be the most important step now waiting to be taken. xxxvii. Land use plans should identify areas to be protected, areas to be farmed, areas to be utilized fLs sustainc^.e logging, and so forth. Land allocation and use, land tenure systems, agricultural technoogy, infrastructure development, and conservation efforts must be tailored to the specifics of each region and location. Land use planning is a useful tool for reconciling objectives of natural resource management, settlement and population policy, agricultural and infrastructure development. These objectives come together in specific locations and can be effectively integrated in regional and local land use plans. Most important witl be the empowerment of local communities - xvi - to manage natural resources and their involvement in the development and execution of these plans. Communities and individuals must have ownership of natural resources if they are to manage and conserve them properly. Mobilization of conmunity and individual participation in natural resource management may be the most important step now waiting to be taken. DXmviii. In the final analysis, however, successful agricultural intensification and much reduced fertility rates and population growth are the critical elements to preventing further degradation of the rural environment. E. Conclusion xxxix. Past efforts have, on the whole, failed to reverse the direction of the downward spiral that is driven by the synergetic forces of this Nexus. Part of the explanation appears to be that past efforts have been pursued too narrowly along traditional sectoral lines - matching established institutional arrangements and traditional academic disciplines - while crucial cross-sectoral linkages and synergies have been ignored. At the same time, primary emphasis in most sectoral development efforts has generally been placed on the supply side, i.e., on efforts to develop and deliver technology and services). Far more emphasis needs to be placed on promoting effective demand for environmentally benign farming intensification technologies, for family planning services, for resource conservation. The synergies inherent in the Nexus provide considerable potential in this regard. To address these issues requires appropriate cross-sectoral analysis and the development of action programs which address the linkages and synergies among them. Action, however, should be defined within single sectors to facilitate efficient implementation. xi. In analytical work that should precede the formulation of action plans and, particularly, of developmental interventions, far greater attention needs to be paid to the social organization of production and consumption, of decision-making and resource allocation, of access to resources and services. These systems and structures can be very complex and often differ substantialy among communities. This implies the need to use relevant 'units of analysis.' The 'household", the 'family' and the "family farm" may not be appropriate if these terms are simply assumed to convey concepts of social and economic arrangements familiar to 20th-century industrialized economies. Where societies are characterized by complex resource-allocation and -pooling arrangements for both production and consumption purposes, based on lineage, kinship, gender and age-groups, it is imperative to be cognizant of these, to analyze the impact of development interventions on individuals in this context, and to design development efforts such that traditional groups can implement and manage them. Gender issues are particularly cr;tcal, especially in terms of gender-specific divisions of responsibilities, tasks and budgets, as well as in terms of access to resources, information and markets. Interventions and incentives do not necessarily work in the same direction or with the same intensity for men and women. xli. Already, many SSA countries have begun to implement various elements of this action plan. Over 20 national environmental action plans are in place or being prepared. Several country- specific population, agriculture and environment nexus studies have been initiated, including in C6te d'Ivoire, Malawi, Nigeria, Rwanda and in the Sahelian countries as a group. Macroeconomic and agricultural policy reforms are underway in over half the African countries. Several countries have successful family planiing programs, and others are developing promising programs. Agricultural research and extension systems are beginning to place more weight on 'sustainable' technology and responsiveness to varying farmer demand. A few countries have brought much of this together and obtained positive synergies between agricultural growth, enronmental protecton and reduction in fertility rates. Kenya, Zimbabwe, Botswana and Mauritius are examples. Others, such as Ghana and - xvii - Tanzania, are moving in the right direction. Major deficiencies remain in rural health care and education (particularly female education), rural infrastructure, promoting more participation of local communities in development efforts, forest and conservation policy, land tenure reform, urbanization policy, and family planning programs. The distance to travel is long, but the way to go is clearer. I. INTRODUCMION AND HYPOTHESES A. Objectives of the Study 1.1 Over the past thirty years, most of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has experienced very rapid population growth, slow agricultural growth and severe eonvironmental degradation. Increasing concern over these trends and the failure of past efforts to reverse them has led to the decision to review the available research findings and operational experience. Ihe objective of this study is not to compile and address all of the demographic, agricultural and environmental issues facing the countries and people of Sub-Saharan Africa. It is, rather, to gain a better understanding of the linkages and mutually reinforcing causes of these three sets of problems. The demographic, agricultural and environmental problems are closely interlinked in a 'nexus' of multiple and mutually reinforcing causality chains. 1.2 The need to survive - individually and as a species - affects human fertility decisions. It also determines people's interactions with their environment, because they derive their livelihood and ensure their survival from the natural resources available and accessible to them. Rural livelihood systems in Sub-Saharan Africa are essentially agricultural, and agriculture is the main link between people and their natural resource environment. lTrough their agricultural activities, people seek to husband the available soil, water and biotic resources so as to "harvest" a livelihood for themselves. Such harvesting should be limited to the yield sustainable from the available stock of resources in perpetuity so as to ensure human survival over successive generations. Improvements in technology can make the use of these resources more efficient - increase the sustainable yields and/or reduce the resource stock required. Population growth should, thus, be matched or surpassed by productivity increases so as to safeguard the dynamic equilibrium between the available/required stock of resources and the human population that depends on it for survival. Over the past thirty years, this has not been the case in Sub-Saharan Africa. The rate of population growth has considerably exceeded the rate of productivity increase in agriculture - and this has resulted in the 'mining' of natural resources as well as in stagnating per capita agricultural production and incomes. Why this has occurred, and what can be done about it, are the questions addressed in this study. B. The Nexus: An Hypothesis 1.3 This study's hypothesis is that there are strong synergies and causality chains linking rapid population growth, degradation of the environmental resource base, and poor agricultural production performance - the nexus". Key linkages are likely to be found in traditional African crop production and livestock husbandry methods, traditional land tenure systems and land use practices, traditional responsibilities of women in rural production and household maintenance systems, and traditional methods of utilizing woodland and forest resources. These systems and practices were well suited to survival needs on Africa's fragile resource endowment when population densities were low and populations stable or growing only slowly. 1.4 As Ester Boserup pointed out, farmers are unlikely to intensify their mode of production (i.e., to produce more output per unit of land) unless there is a constraint on the amount of land available for farmmg with low labor and low capital inputs (Boserup, 1965). Technological ionovation at the farm level comes about at least in part because of farmers' inability to carry on with traditional technologies and still ensure an adequate livelihood. Extensive agricultural production systems - shifing and long-faUow cultivation and transhumant pastoralism - are the appropriate responses to abundant land, limited capital and limited technical know-how. They have pre inated in most of Sub-Saharan Africa where, into the recent past, they been the optimal modes of production for farmers and herders.' Where population density gradually increased over time, traditional systems of cultivation, land tenure, women's responsibilities, and forest resource use evolved in response. This evolution was slow - matching the rate of population growth and, hence, the pace of adjustments required. 1.5 These well balanced and slowly evolving traditional systems came under increasing strain with the rapid acceleration of population growth that began when mortality rates started to decline sharply in the 1950s while birth rates remained high. The traditional arrangements and practices, so well suited to an Africa of low population densities, failed to evolve fast enough. The unprecedented rate of population growth in the past few decades has placed a severe strain on the traditional rural production and livelihood systems in Sub-Saharan Africa. The pace of evolution in key elements of these systems -- farming practices and technology, land tenure and management arrangements, women's responsibilities, forest resource utilization - has been inadequate in the face of the dramatically intensifying pressure of more people on finite stocks of natural resources. Traditional land use and wood provision practices have become major direct causes of environmental degradation and resource depletion. This degradation reduces the productivity and resilience of natural resource systems, contributing to soil erosion and changing weather patterns, which then contributes to agricultural stagnation and, in turn, impedes the onset of the demographic transition. 1.6 Chapter H documents key consequences of this process. These include rapid and accelerating deforestation, widespread problems of soil erosion and fertility loss, and rising population growth rates. The growth of agricultural production, on the other hand, remains at its approximate long-term average of about 2 percent per annum, falling well short of population growth. The results include widespread food insecurity, poor export earnings, and litde stimulus from the agricultural sector for overall economic development and growth. 1.7 Sub-Saharan Africa's forest cover has been diminishing at a rate of more than 0.5 percent per year in the 1980s. Forests provide many products and serve many functions, and these are diminished or iost with deforestation. Vast areas of farmland are affected by soil erosion, and vast portions of Sub-Saharan Africa's pasture and range areas show signs of degradation. Dep',ded soils lose their ferdlity and water absorption and retention capacity, with drastic effects o d vegetative growth. Significant declines in rainfall are being recorded in many countries and are at least partly attributable to the rapid destruction of forests. This environmental degradation has a negative impact on crop and livestock production and on water availability for human and livestock use. Since 1965, the increase in agricultural production in Sub-Saharan Africa has averaged only about 2 percent per year, while the total population has grown at about 2.8 percent annually. In the 1980s, agricultural growth has been only slightly above the longer-term average, but the rate of population growth accelerated to about 3.1 percent per year. Nowhere and at no time in history has any significant human population grown at such a rate. Per capita food production has declined in many countries, and roughly 100 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa are food insecure. Average per capita calorie consumption has stagnated at very low levels and declined in some countries. The average African consumes only about 87 percent of the calories needed for a healthy and productive life. Poor agricultural performance is due in large part to the poor policy environment for agriculture, but much of the explanation also lies in environmental degradation, in the continuous expansion of farming into areas only marginally suited to crop farming, and in the lack of adaptation of various improved agricultural technologies to the locally prevailing agro-ecologic and socio-economic conditions. Soo, for imtanco, Piquli, Bigot and Binawangar, 1987; Ldo and Stone, 1989. -3- 1.8 The human costs associated with this forest and land degradation are substantial. As forests and woodlands are destroyed, people muct - alk further and/or pay more for fuelwood, building materials and the many important non-wo4 forest products they depend upon. Woodfuels are the staple source of household energy in Sub-Saharan Africa, and the demand for woodfuels is rising at about the rate of population growth. As fuelwood becomes scarce, women and children have to spend more time collecting it from more distant sources. Since forests recycle considerable quantities of water locally, deforestation also has negative effects on local and regional rainfall and hydrological systems. Combined with deteriorating soil structure, which reduces the water absorption and retention capacity of the soil and, thus, groundwater recharge, this leads to declining plant growth and worsening nmral water supply for both humans and animals. Women have to go further, especially during the dry season, to fetch water for household use as well as for watering livestock and home gardens. And forest destruction threatens not merely the traditional lifestyles and livelihood systems, but the very survival of forest dwelling peoples. C. Critical Linkages rf) Shfting Culivaton and Transhwnant Pastoralism 1.9 Chapter IV deals with the most important linkage in the process hypothesized above. For centuries, shifting cultivation and transhumant pastoralism have been, under the prevailing agro- ecological conditions and factor endowments, appropriate systems for people throughout most of Sub- Saharan Africa to derive their livelihood in a sustainable manner from the natural resource endowment of their environment. The ecological and economic systems were in equilibrium. The key to maintaining this equilibrium was mobility: people shifted to a different location when soil fertility declined or forage was depleted, allowing the fertility of the land to be reconstituted through natural vegetative growth and decay. For field cropping, this typically involved cultivation periods of two to four years, land then being left fallow for as long as 15 to 25 years. Herders' mobility generally involved a far greater geographic range, but a far shorter temporal cycle: they would move their herds on extended migratory patterns as dictated by the seasonal availability of water and forage and in most cases repeat the same cycle in one or sometimes two years. Adjustments to these traditional systems, including gradual intensification of farming practices, took place as and when they became necessary, but the pace of the adjustment required was slow. 1.10 As long as population growth was slow and land remained available, the additional people could be accommodated by gradually bringing more land into the farming cycle. But new land for cultivation has become increasingly scarce in most regions of Sub-Saharan Africa. Large areas of forests, wetlands, river valley bottoms and savanna have been converted to farmland. The scope for further expansion has drastically narrowed. There is considerable diversity among countries - but everywhere fallow periods are becoming shorter as populations increase and the land frontier recedes. In many areas, such as Mauritania, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, Lesotho and Liberia, fallow periods are no longer sufficient to restore soil fertility. Increasingly, rural people are compelled to remain on the same parcel of land, due to the lack of availability of unoccupied land - yet they retain their traditional farming methods. 1.11 These people are faced with a critical dilemma. The most central element of their traditional farming system - the ability to shift around on the land - is being eliminated by population pressure, yet they continue to use the other elements of this traditional production system. Soil fertility is not restored and soils are not conserved where fallow periods are too short, or non- existent, and where traditional cultivation techniques continue to be used. As a result, crop yields decline and soils erode. When farming is no longer viable, people migrate to establish new farms on land previously not used for farming - in semi-arid areas and in tropical forests where soil and climatic conditions are poorly suited to annual cropping. The process of indigenous adjustment has been too slow in the 1970s and 1980s to keep pace with the unprecedented rate of population growth and population movement. The result has been low growth, and in some cases decline, in crop yields. Population pressure is inducing farmers to intensify production, but for the most part this is occurring much too slowly to offset the negative impact on crop fertility. (1) Land and Pree Tenure Systems 1.12 A second link, also discussed in Chapter IV, involves land tenure systems. Traditional systems provide considerable security of tenure on land brought into the farming cycle (clearing, cropping, fallowing, reclearing) through customary rules of community land ownership and allocation of use rights to members of the community. In most cases, the tenurial security enjoyed by members of the community is sufficient to induce investment in land. Outsiders, or strangers (i.e., non- members of the community) may obtain use rights of various types, but in many cases with considerably less long-term security. As long as populations increased only slowly and the demand for land use rights by migrants from other communities remained modest, traditional systems also were able to accommodate the emerging need to move towards de faao permanence of land rights assignation to community members. 1.13 With increasing rural-rural migration and settlement in previously less densely populated areas, strangers' tenurial rights and their implications for land resource conservation are of increasing concern (migrants in most cases being strangers in the areas to which they move). Tree tenure arrangements are often distinctly separate from land use rights pertaining to the cultivation of annual crops and can result in serious conflict. And traditional norms have increasingly failed to provide adequate protection to land that is not already in the farming cycle and, hence, not under individual or family management. On the contrary, with rapidly growing populations and associated demand for bringing new land into cultivation, common property land - such as forests, wetlands and range lands - has often become defacto open-access land. Finally, in many areas where traditional land use rights provided for overlapping and complementary uses by sedentary farmers and transhumant herders, rapid population growth and the conversion of valley bottoms into permanent farm land has created major constraints on the mobility of herders, with serious implications for environmental integrity. 1.14 Most governments and donors have mistakenly believed that traditional community ownership of land is totally inconsistent with individualized tenurial security. Traditional tenure systems did not seem to adjust rapidly enough to changing demographic realities, agricultural technology developments and market forces. Governments and donors also witnessed the erosion in customary laws and practices, including those regulating land use. This erosion occurred partly as a result of significant migration within and between many countries, partly as a result of changes in social values and customs, and partly as a result of ambiguities created by the overlaying of 'modern' land administration systems over traditional ones. 7he result, in many instances, has been the emergence of de facto open-access systems which are not conducive to resource conservation or to investments in soil fertility maintenace and land improvement. Such open access systems, found especially in forest and pasture areas, result in rapid environmental degradation - following the script of the "tragedy of the commons". Each user has an incentive to exploit the land and the associated resources as much as possible for private advantage, moving on when the resources are exhausted or too depleted to provide a livelihood. Moreover, in open access systems the size of land holdings is partly a function of the amount of family labor available; this may be an important element contributing to the high fertility preferences observed. - 5 - efi) Women's 71me and Their Role In Agriculture and Rural Producdon Sysfems 1.15 A third critical link Is the important role of women in rural production systems, dealt with in Chapter V. The widespread prevalence of gender-specific (gender-sequential and/or gender- segregated) roles and responsibilities in rural production systems may be a major factor contributing to agricultural stagnation and environmental degradation as well as to the persistence of high fertility rates. In many areas, women have primary or sole responsibility for food crop production, and they usually manage separate fields for this purpose. Women also tend to have significant obligations concerning labor to be performed on men's fields and with post-harvest processing activities. 1.16 Given women's triple roles - child bearing and rearing, famiiy and household maintenance, and production and income-earning activities - the pressures on their time continue to intensify. With increasing deforestation, yet growing populations requiring more fuelwood, fuelwood has become scarcer, and women must walk further to fetch it - or reduce the number of hot meals prepared. Increasing populations put greater pressure on available water resources, while environmental degradation reduces the availability and accessibility of water. Women must walk further to fetch water, and get their daughters to help them. Throughout much of rural Sub-Saharan Africa, women also are the primary providers of transport services. In the absence of adequate rural transport infrastructure and of means of transport other than human porterage, women spend substantial time headloading water and fuelwood, farm produce and other commodities. 1.17 As growing numbers of working-age men leave the farms to work in towns and cities, women are increasingly taking on primary responsibility for farm operations - while their access to adult male labor for critical tasks is diminishing. Moreover, the expansion of higher-input cash cropping under male control tends to increase demands on female labor for traditional female activities such as weeding and harvesting. At the same time, women in most societies are confronted with severe restrictions on access to land, to extension advice, to institutional credit, and to improved production, processing and transport technology. These constraints, combined with the intensifying pressures on women's time, severely impede productivity improvements and the intensification of women's farming operations. As a result, most women farmers have little choice but to continue practicing traditional low-input, low-productivity farming which, with sharply shortened fallow periods, is neither environmentally sustainable nor viable in terms of longer-term agricultural productivity. Women's time constraints also retard the growth of cash crop production controlled by men, since this depends on substantial female labor input at critical times. 1.18 The constraints on women's time have implications also for infant and child welfare and, hence, infant and child mortality - with significant repercussions on fertility aspirations and attitudes toward family planning. More contentious is the hypothesis that the multiple work burdens and the heavy time pressure on women, by raising demand for child labor, may contribute to the persistence of high fertility rates. Additional labor may be the only factor of production which women can easily augment, or are permitted or even compelled to augment, in order to meet their production and household management responsibilities. The traditional role of womea may thus be contributing to maintinig the extraordinary fertfility rate in Sub-Saharan Africa (the total fertility rate, TFR, is the total mnmber of children the average woman has in a lifetime), now equal to about 6.5 (compared with 4 in all developing countries taken together). (lv) The Rural Energy Economy and Traditional Fuelwood Provision 1.19 Fuelwood provision and use are important issues in terms of women's time and productivity as well as in terms of environmental degradation. Closely related is the fact that animal -6 - dung and crop residues are increasingly being used as fuel, although not yet to the degree found in South Asia. The economic utility of using such organic matter to maintain soil fertility under conditions of shortening fallows and the gradual shift to permanent cultivation is very high, and its declining availability for this purpose has a high cost in termi of reduced agricultural productivity. 1.20 The heavy dependency on wood for fuel and building material has combined with rapid population growth to contribute to accelerating forest and woodland destruction. This is particularly severe around major urban centers where it has led to the appearance of concentric rings of deforestation. Wood is generally regarded as a free good, taken largely from land to which everyone has the right of access. As a result, efficient markets for fuelwood have not developed in most countries - despite its increasing scarcity. Consumer prices reflect primarily the cost of transporting the wood, not the cost of tree planting and maintenance. Even where extreme scarcity has led to the emergence of an efficient market, the price of fuelwood has been below the cost of replanting because most supplies come from open-access sources. Alternative fuels, such as kerosene or LPG, are more costly to obtain. Despite dwindling supplies of wood for fuel and building material, other fuels are therefore not replacing woodfuels (and other biomass such as dung and crop byproducts) in significant quantities. 1.21 The degradation and destruction of forests and woodlands through unsustainable woodfuel extraction accelerates soil degradation and erosion, causes destruction e wildlife habitat, leads to loss of biodiversity, and has severe negative implications for local and regional climates and hydrological conditions. Deteriorating climatic, soil and hydrological conditions negatively affect agriculture. There is further feedback to the Nexus through the ircreasing burden on women who must walk fiuther and spend more time to meet household fuelwood needs or, in situations of extreme scarcity, are forced to cook with dung or crop residues or even to reduce the number of cooked meals. (v) Logging, Forest Management, and Senler Irflux Into Forest Areas 1.22 In forested regions, logging has contributed to rapid reductions in the area under forest cover, with similar negative impact on climatic paterns and soil fertility as excessive and unsustainable woodfuel extraction. Although directly responsible for no more than 20 percent of forest destruction in Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole, it has been considerably more destructive in some countries, such as COte d'Ivoire. However, commercial logging usually leads to a second - and in most cases far more damaging - phase of forest destruction. Logging roads provide access for land-hungry settlers into areas previously difficult to enter, and these settlers accelerate and expand the process of deforestation that the loggers have begun. Logging concessionaires ordinarily acquire rights to log from governments, without regard to the traditional rights of forest dwellers. These rights, once eroded, are not respected by new settlers penetrating along the logging roads. (vf) Interaction With Policy Constraints and Other Struxtural Problems 1.23 Many other factors also have a detrimental impact on agriculture and the environment. These include civil wars, inappropriate price, exchange rate and fiscal policies, poor rural infrastructure, lack of private investment in agricultural marketing and processing, and ineffective agricultural support services. These were discussed in the World Bank's recent report on Sub- Saharan Africa's development perspectives (World Bank, 1989d). By preventing significant gains in agricultural productivity and contributing to the persistence of rural poverty, these factors compel growing populations, as a survival strategy, to exploit ever more extensively the natural resources available and accessible to them. Continued predominance of long-fallow cultivation and of traditional famning methods, traditional separation of fiaming activities into male and female spheres, -7 - and unsustainable methods of forest resource exploltation will continue in these circumstances. A necessary condition for overcoming the problems of agricultural station and environmental degradation will be, therefore, policy improvements along the lines suggested hi the above World Bank report. D. Population Growth Revisited: Feedback from the Nexus 1.24 Agricultural stagnation and environmental degradation probably inhibit the demographic transition bacause they retard economic development which is the driving force behind this transition. The extraordinarily high fertility rates prevailing in Sub-Saharan Africa are the result of many factors. The fundamental problem is low demand for smaller families. In many societies, becoming a parent is a precondition for becoming a socially recognized adult. Fertility enhances female and male status, while infertility results in severe anxiety and, particularly for women, can be socialy and economically devastating. Such widespread phenomena as polygamy and women marrying considerably older men tend to increase women's eventual economic and social dependency on sons and, hence, their willingness to bear many children. The very young age at which women tend to marry increases the number of fecund years spent in union. 1.25 Infant and child nutrition and mortality are affected by the availability of safe potable water and by the number of nutritious and warm meals provided. Where environmental degradation reduces the availability and accessibility of water and fuelwood, this has negative impact on infant and child mortality and, hence, positive impact on parental demand for more children. Where girls are kept out of school to help with domestic tasks, including water and fuelwood fetching, this has siaong negative repercussions for their fertility preferences and their ability to make lnowledgeable decisions about family planning once they reach childbearing age. Where food security is low, demand for children remains high - so as to provide labor to help produce more food ("each mouth comes with two hands attached to it") and to ensure the survival of some children for providing support in one's old age. 1.26 Ihe preference for many children is also linked to economic considerations. In many communal land tenure systems, the amount of land allotted for frming to a family by the community (through its chief or its chef de terre) is a function of its ability to clear and cultivate land - i.e., of family size or, more correctly, family labor (hired labor in most setting being rare, although labor pooling for certain tasks is not uncommon). This is also true in open-access systems where the size of holdings equals land cleared and cultivated. This counteracts efforts to stimulate demand for fewer children. Moreover, as long as there is (or is perceived to be) as yet unfarmed and unclaimed land available, there is no incentive for individuals to manage their land more intensively nor to limit their family size so as to be able to bequeath a viable farm to their offspring. E. The Evidence 1.27 This study presents the evidence for the complicated inter-actions identified above. Chapters VI to X outline an action program to deal with these problems in a manner which exploits the positive synergies between agricultural intensification, reduced population growth and environmental resource conservation. The action program involves elements that are relatively new. It also presents much that is well known, such as the need for far greater atention to gender issues, from a new perspective. The evidence on which the analysis and recommendatons are based is largely from site-specific studies. Given data limitations, statistical analysis, though attenpted and presented, does not provide definitive confirmation. Statistical analysis and country level studies are therefore continuing. H. AGRICULTURAL SIAGNATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION A. Agricultural Stagnatlon, Population Growth and Food Security 2.1 Over the past 25 years, agricultural production in Sub-Sabaran Africa rose by only about 2 percent a year, while aggregate population growth averaged about 2.8 percent per yeas (Tables 2 and 9)?1 Per capita food production has declined in most SSA countries (Table 10). Food imports increased by about 185 percent between 1974 and 1990, food aid by 295 percent. But tk.e food gap (requirements minus production) - filled by imports, or by many people going with less than what they need - Is widening. In the early 1980s, about 100 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa were unable to secure sufficient food to ensure an adequate level of nutrition for themselves, and average food consumption per capita has declined during the 1970s and 1980s in 17 of the 36 SSA countries for which data are available (Table 10).2 In years o. poor harvests the numbers affected have been much larger. Severe food shortages were exceptional in the 1960s, but are no longer so. Famines in several countries in the 1980s have been graphic indications of natural calamity, as well as of civil disruption, in the region. On average, officially estimated per capita food intake in Sub-Saharan Africa in the late 1980s, at 2,027 calories per day, was actually below the 1965 level and significantly lower than in other parts of the developing world. The average in India, for example, is 2,238 calories daily per person. The average African consumes only about 87 percent of the calories needed for a healthy and productive life. 2.2 The available data show no acceleration of aggregate agricultural growth in the 1980s. It has only slightly risen above the longer-term average for the past three decades of 2 percent per annum (Table 9). (It was higher than 2 percent in the 1960s and much lower in the 1970s.) This poor performanca is also evident in the decline of agricultural export earnings. Export volumes and values have declined for almost all SSA countries (Table 13). There are notable exceptions. Exports of tea and horticultural products from Kenya, cocoa from Cote d'Ivoire and cotton from several West African countries have grown substantially in volume. But the success stories are few. 2.3 Projections, based on present trends, are disturbing. Aggregate population growth has accelerated to over 3.1 percent per annum (Table 2). Present projections, based on current trends in fertility and mortality rates (mncluding the impact of AIDS), indicate only a slight deceleration in aggregate population growth through the year 2000. The total fertility rate (CMR) - i.e., the average number of children born to a woman in her childbearing years - for Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole has remained at about 6.5 or 6.6 from 1965 to the present (Table 2). By contrast, the average TFR for all the world's low-income countries declined from 6.3 in 1965 to 4.0 in 1987. During the same period, the crude death rate in Sub-Saharan Africa fell from 23 to 16 (Table 3). In countries with a high incidence of AIDS, death rates will rise, but nowhere is population growth expected to fail below 2 percent per annum by the year 2000, even under worst-case AIDS scenarios currently Sttscl informti on agniculu performance, as on most ot%er aspcts of aocia and economic devkent, a dificlt to obtain and tend to be of poor quality. A ooniderable effoit was made in this study to draw on what is generlly assumed to bo the beat availabls sat information (see the Stistical Appendix for data and oures). 2 It is widely recognized that tho data on which food availailty and consumon estmates are based (e.g., crop acreage, yied, livewokc production, poeting doage We, de.) an of poor quality in most African cuntrie. Increasingl, it is also recognized that non-clivated plant and hbuhmeat' contribute far mom to many Aficam' digs, partic Dy in poor cop ye, than has been capued in offcial statistics. Nveoelas, few obsrve an as skeptial of the gneal pictus of serio food deficits as Svedbag (1991). - 9 - considered plausible.' Unless efforts to reduce TFRs succeed (or mortality rates rise dramatically due to currently unanticipated AIDS developments), population growth rates will decline very little. 2.4 Table VI.I (pg. 63) shows the implications of these trends for Sub-Saharan Africa's future food gap. In 1990, Sub-Saharan Africa's 494 million people produced about 90 million metric tons of maize equivalent of food. With 100 million tons of aggregate consumption, there was a gap of 10 million tons met by imports. At currently projected growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa's population will total about 1,200 million and its food production will reach about 163 million tons of maize equivalent in 2020. Aggregate requirements will be about 243 million tons, assuming there is no change in average per capita consumption. The 80 million ton food gap would be eight times today's gap and equivalent to about one fourth of the present annual production of cereals in the United States. Food aid varied between 4 and 7 million tons of cereals per year in the 1980s and could not conceivably increase sufficiently to fill this gap. Without significart per capita growth in agricultural production it is difficult to imagine sufficient overall economic growth that would generate the resources needed to finance food imports of this magnitude - nor, for that matter, to maintain educational and health services and infrastructure facilities. 2.5 These disturbing trends will, of course, not continue indefuiitely. What is at issue is how they will eventually be overcome. Will the strong synergies and the dynamics of these trends lead to human and environmental degradation and ultimately to widespread starvation? Or will these trends be overcome through voluntary, but determined action to reduce population growth and promote sustainable agricultural development and growth? B. The Deteriorating Natural Resource Base and Ecological Enviromnent 2.6 Much of Sub-Saharan Africa's natural resource base and ecological environment are deteriorating. If present trends continue, they will deteriorate even more rapidly in the future. The most pressing problem is the high rate of loss of vegetative cover - mainly due to deforestation and conversion of savanna to crop land - which in turn leads to loss of soil fertility and soil erosion. Global and regional climatic changes and/or deviations from longer-term average conditions are also causal factors - but human impact on the environment in Sub-Saharan Africa may itself be an important element contributing to these climatic changes. fi) Deforestation 2.7 In much of Sub-Saharan Africa, deforestation is a major problem - with significant local, national and global consequences. Forests provide a multitude of products and serve many functions, including essential environmental ones. With deforestation, these are lost. Forests and woodlands are cleared for farming and logged for fuelwood, logs and pulp wood. Data on forest resources and rates of extraction and clearing are imperfect, as are data on most of Africa's environmental resources, but information is continually improving and reliable enough to suggest the scale of the problem. In 1980, there were about 679 million ha of forests and woodlands in Sub-Saharan Africa. A 1980 FAO/UNEP study estimated that 3.7 million ha of tropical Africa's forests and open woodlands were being cleared each year by farmers and loggers (Lanly, 1982). More recent estimates suggest that close to 3.8 million ha have been lost each year during the 1980s (Table 18), 3 Demogaphic modeling of tho poatial impact of AIDS is etrel diffi Some smula sunggat that AIDS may reduce tho populaton growwth mt of SSA as a whol, by as nmuh a 0.5 to 1.0 pecente points in te eay decade of the 21st cetury - dusgh dancally gh moliy rt. But higheW mortliy may deay frtility dclines. - 10- mainly through conversion to farm land, and the rate of deforestation may be accelerating. Rebfoestation amounted to only 229,000 ha per year during the 1980s, only about 6 percent of the area lost each year to deforestation (Table 18). 2.8 Aggregate data obviously obscure important differences among regions and countries. Deforestation has been particularly rapid in West Africa, with Eastern and Southern Africa also suffering substatial losses in forest cover.' Large tracts of tropical forest still remain, especially in Zalre, Gabon, Congo, the Central African Republic and Cameroon. It would take many years for Central Africa's forests to be completely destroyed, but the process has started. In most of Eastern and Southern Africa, as well as in the West African coastal countries, the process is far advanced. 2.9 Degradation and destruction of ::.:.:......... .... forests have a severe impact on wildlife habitat . . . . and biodiversity, with potentially Irreversible ... . -- y; losses of animal and plant life. The World ...... Consevation Union (IUCN) and the World f w s i -8t. Resources Institute (WRI) estimate that 64 mi e 4 4wn.70 of percent of original wildlife habitat in Sub- . ......................d Saharan Africa has already been lost (Table Abii.," m.2of . 0 [. 20). This is directly due to deforestation, 4 oc-5 2 conversion of wildlands to agricultural uses hlt tn and other human activity. Uncontrolled nc u f ala , harvesting, poaching and iegal trade also take a heavy toil on many species. Degradation of ) t-e 314 n tropical moist forests has a particularly _ negative impact on biodiversity by destroying 1,1 ffAs. S T wa plant and animal life which may exist nowhere ....C .... . . else in the world. --- 2.10 As forests and woodlands are destroyed, people must walk furher and/or pay more for fueiwood, construction materials and other essential forest products. Woodfuels are the staple source of household energy in Africa, with 90 percent of all households using them for cooking - the main end-use of energy in Sub-Saharan Africa.' Various agro-processing and rural artisanal and semi- indusrial activities also use woodfuels (e.g., fish smoking, shea nut processing, tobacco drying, disdlleries, pottery makdng, smithies, brick making). Fuelwood deficits are severe in the Sahel, in the savanna regions of West, Central and East Africa and in the arid areas of southeastern and southwestem Africa (Table 19). They impose particular hardships on women who are usually responsible for household fuel provision. As fuelwood becomes scarce, women (and children) have to spend more time collecting it from more distant sources ard eventually begin to substitute crop residues and manure which would otherwise be used to maintain soil fertility.6 4 FAO/UNBP esiatt for the lat 1970s indicaed that of West Afria's urwisturbd, productive closed forests, almot 8 paernat wes logged anualy, oompnd with only about 1.6 peret inl Fas Africa and 0.4 peret in Cental Africa (FAO and UNEP, 1981). s UNDP/Wodd Bank, African u2 m.nt WicIn (1992), Table. 14-8 drugh 14-14, povides country-spcific dat on egy _onsmption, inchlding consum of fudwood. 6 Mm fTwiwood problem ad its impaut on nual households, family welfare, women's time and women's rpductim actvite have bewe investaed by many esheo; a nber of such studi an listed in the bibliography. - 11 - 2.11 The loss of future wood for the forest industry will be another important cost of continuing deforestation. In the period 1985-87, the six largest African timber exporters (Cameroon, Congo, Cote d'Ivoire, Gabon, Ghana and Liberia) exported US$500-600 million worth of timber annually. Without significant afforestation, the potential for future export earnings will be lost as forests disappear. 2.12 Forests also provide a wide variety of non-wood products for local populations. Many are utilized particularly by women to meet subsistence needs or to generate cash income, and various wild plant and animal food sources are especially important in times of stress (FAO, 1989; 1990). A recent FAO publication lists 94 different forest and farm tree foods as being commonly used in West Africa (FAO, 1990a, pp. 102-103); 30 forest species are listed as being commonly used for fodder (ibid., p. 113). Women often possess much ii) wamesi specialized knowledge in this regard (Molnar and e0 ... .. Schreiber, 1989); in Sierra Leone, women listed 31 different products they gather from bushes and , ,ai - - o trees near their villages (Hoskins, 1989, p. 43). --j* Traditional medicine throughout Sub-Saharan d_ pa, Africa is highly dependent on a variety of forest { Oop plants.7 As forest are degraded and destroyed, X..... _ .. these resources are no longer available and/or accessible to the local populations. 2.13 Deforestation also has a particularly severe impact on forest dwellers, such as the pygmies, threatening not merely their traditional lifestyles, but their very survival (Bailey, Bahuchet and Hewlett, 1992; Dyson, 1992; Peterson, 1992; Winterbottom, 1992). (U) SoU Degradadon and Erosion 2.14 Much of Sub-Saharan Africa is highly vulnerable to soil degradation and erosion - because of factors such as soil characteristics, intense soil drying in the dry seasons, heavily erosive seasonal rainfall in many areas, wind erosion in drier areas, and low-resource farming with inadequate soil conservation measures. The United Nations Environment Programme estimates that more than 80 percent of Sub-Saharan Africa's productive drylands and rangelands, some 660 million ha, are affected. by 'desertification - the process of sustained deterioration of the biological productivity of land (Table 23).' Most of this is in the West African Sahelo-Sudanian Zone, in Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya, as well as in southern Africa, but parts of many other countries (such as the northern areas of many West African coastal countries) are also affected. The Soil Reference and Information Centre in Wageningen, Netherlands, has recently published more 7 The Inter-Afican Committe on Medicinal Plants and Afian Tropied Medicine and the Scientific, Tochnical and Renah Comnission of the OAU have publieW a pharmacopei of Afican medicinal plats of proven efficacy, Afiin Pa (1985), and veral African counuies hav esdablished res h instittes foassing on tadonal medicine and the soure and offeeb of the active ingredient in medicines administered by traditional healers (Delong, 1991). 7 The tem l desedtificationw is often ud without precision: it denotes a proec of gradual los of soil frtty and the consequ loss of to abiliy of soils to produce significant vegetative matr - tr, pauro or crop. Desetfication is mased in such phnome asu soi eon, soil ucturo dete on, com cn, reducn in rgnic mer and nuient content, saliniation, ecw. Lnd degrasmdon" is a mo apprpiat trm, with lks alrmit conotato, ad is inreadsigly ganing cuxrency. - 12 - conservative estimates of the extent and *......... severity of soil degradation in Africa. Its data indicate that about 321 million ha (14.4 percent 3 m .b of the total vegetated land surface) are _.....s.... :c.. moderately, severely or extremely degraded l. s. and an additional 174 million ha (7.8 percent of the vegetated area) are lightly degraded d ! (Oldeman et at., 1990). dr5e 2.15 Sizeable areas used for cropping in m low-rainfall regions are subject to soil n . D. .;.I - degradation and soil fertility loss. Topsoil R' __ losses even on gently sloping cropland have been reported to range from 25 to 250 tons per S - : t w : hectare annually from Niger to Madagascar 1987). and from Ethiopia to Zimbabwe (Table 22). Ihese rates are equivalent to losses of between 2 mm and 2 cm of topsoil annually.9 The agronomic relevance of such data is difficult to assess, of course, without information on new soil formation and total topsoil remaining:10 topsoil depth should be about 15 cm to provide an adequate root zone for annual crops (but optimal rooting depth differs among crops). Nevertheless, given the poor fertility characteristics of most African soils and the prevailing low-input farming practices, topsoil losses in the middle and upper ranges of the magnitudes reported will cause rapid productivity declines. 2.16 Soil erosion is usually accompanied by other aspects of soil degradation, such as deteriorating s0il structure, reduced moisture retention capacity, soil nutrient depletion, and reduction in soil fauna and flora. A major study undertaken in the late 1970s esdmated that, ..=. with unchecked soil degradation and erosion ........-:.;.: and no change in farming technology, the . d ~J~ *i *4~ productivity of land in Africa would decline at . an average rate of 1 percent per annum da s f between 1975 and 2000 (Higgins et al., 1982, , g 4 pp. 23-25). In Zimbabwe, nitrogen and f-$ a' i''n-s-l'.:: phosphorus losses atrbutable to soil erosion on arable land were estimated to be about three = . p *- ':..::*f . times the amount of ferdlizer applied in the _ X . 1984/85 crop year; fully compensating for this _., ' , nutrient loss through the application of i516) of chemical fertilizers would have cost about US$ t d f incouw ':w en ' 1.5 billion - or US$35 per hectare of arable land (FAO, 1990b). 9bhv i locat=4pefifo evdence that on i aceleata. A of Tawmes Shinyana gio, uifizzg Xnd fiat da tre ad buaes ca be daf . it makes sense from the farmer's perspective to ... mabatai... extend the use of land and minimize the use of : pW =: wt. other inputs, including capital and labor. i _ fj Shifting cultivation and pastoral livestock bf boemia. = w 1b a *h'gb. raising are perhaps the best illustrations of this : y D -X d situation. They have predominated in most of ............. ...1- Sub-Saharan Africa. 4.3 Consistent with Boserup's findings, these traditional extensive farming and livestock systems change, even in traditional society, when populations become more dense. This can be seen in the Kenya highlands, Burundi, Rwanda, the Kivu Plateau in eastern Zaire and in parts of Nigeria. In Rwanda in particular, intensive traditional agricultural systems exist, brought about by the scarcity of land relative to the population dependent on it. In most of Sub-Saharan Africa however, land has been abundant until recently, and in some countries it still is. 1 See, for examp4e, Bimwanr and Piuli, 1984, 1988; Pingali, Bigot and Biwanger, 1987; Lel and Stone, 1989. - 27 - 4.4 The hypothesis is that rapidly :.. increasing population pressure has ...:. overwhelmed rural African traditions of ;i farming, livestock raising, fuelwood provision, . ....... so land allocation and utilization, and gender- a 1.Am s 4 e specific responsibilities in household -1 a.i i W maintenance and rural production systems. _1 Traditional crop production and animal f }s a i oh R§axfV husbandry methods, traditional land tenure systems and land use practices, traditonal . methods of obtaining woodfuels and building . materials, and traditional responsibilides of t Oh,1U....,.... women in rural production and houshold _ -= maintenance worked weU and could evolve slowly when population densites were low and f a t tiiilh; populations were growing slowly. The m ffi persistence of these traditional systems and practices, under stress from the high population growth rates in the past 20 to 30 years, has led to an accelerated degradation of natural resources. This in turn has contributed to agricultural stagnation since the 1960s. In summary, Africans have been unable to modify their traditional agricultural and renewable resource use practices quickly enough to respond to the pressure of a rapidly increasing population on the available resource base. 4.5 The comiplexity is further increased by interaction with the economic policy environment characterizing many African countries since the mid 1960s. Agricultural price, trade, exchange rate and tax policies in many African countries have often combined to render agrizulture unprofitable (World Bank, 1989d). The mechanisms for developing and transmitting improved agricultural technology are severely inadequate throughout Sub-Saharan Africa. And excessive government control of agricultural marketing and processing has either squeezed out the private sector on much of the continent, or forced it to operate in a clandestine manner. Yet public-sector marketing and processing enterprises have performed poorly. Farmers have not usually been permitted to associate freely in farmer-managed cooperatives, nor to freely market their products. Throughout Sub-Saharan Africa, this lack of empowerment of farmers has discouraged them from investing. To break out of the trap of rapid population growth, low agricultural growth, and environmental degradation, these policy constraints must be overcome. The World Bank's 1989 long-term perspective study on Sub- Saharan Africa suggested how this might be done (World Bank, 1989d). It is the thesis of this paper that measures will also be needed to overcome the constraints imposed by increasing population pressure on traditional cultivation, fuel provision and tenure systems, and by the roles traditionally assigned to women in rural societies. Appropriate policy reforms will make the more rapid evolution of these traditional systems easier. B. Traditional Cultivation and livestock Husbandry Methods 4.6 For centuries, shifting cultivation and transhumant pastoralism have been, under the prevailing agro-ecological conditions and factor endowments, appropriate systems for people throughout most of Sub-Saharan Africa to derive their livelihood, in a sustainable manner, from the natural resource endowment of their environment. The ecological and economic systems were in equilibrium. The key to maintining this equilibrium was mobility: people shifted to a different location when soil fertility declined or forage was depleted, allowing the fertility of the land to be reconstituted through naural vegetative growth and decay. For field cropping, this typically involved - 28 - cultivation periods of two to four years, land then . being left fallow for as long as 15 to 25 years. : - Tnhumant herders' mobility generally involved ..... . a far greater geographic range, but a far shorter = temporal cycle: they would move beir herds on w extended migratory patterns as dictated by the I pu~o$4 seasonal availability of water and forage and in most cases repeat the same cycle in one or < ; in.z -* > _ sometimes two years. 4.7 These mobile systems of shifting and R .a f_ ... ..... long-fallow cultivation and transhumance were *.jjQ . suitable because of low population density, t =_ abundant land, limited capital and technology and = a frequently difficult agro-climatic conditions. As uiw.p .E.4aB...faR long as popuation growth was slow and land remained available, the additional people could be . , R . *briW3 tiU. .- - >-. accommodated by gradually bringing more land .. into the farming cycle and establishing new settlements on previously uncropped land. . .oo y Adjustments, including gradual intensification of d faming practices, took place as and when they E >E ; ;Q# became necessary, but the pace of adjustment required was slow because population growth was slow. The inter-ropping by Rwanda's farmers, for example, was an early traditional adaptation, becauzz- shifting cultivation was increasingly constrained by the relatively high population density. 4.8 In the absence of sufficiently rapid and widespread technological change, population growth has led to the expansion of the area under cultivation. This has involved mainly the conversion of large areas of forests, wedands, river valey bottoms and grassland savanna to crop land. Since 1965, the area farmed has increased by over 21 million hectares (Table 16). Much of this has taken place on ecologically fragile and agriculturally marginal land which is not suitable for sustained farming and eventually abandoned in an advanced state of degradation. Forested land has declined by about 65 million ha since 1965 (rable 16). But land available to expand cultivation has become increasingly scarce in most regions of Sub-Saharan Africa, drastically narrowing the scope for further expansion. Over the past 25 years, crop acreage expanded by only 0.7 percent annually, and the population pressure on cropped land has increased sharply. On average, per capita arable land in Sub-Saharan Africa declined from 0.5 ha per person in 1965 to 0.4 ha/person in 1980 and to less than 0.3 ha/person in 1990 (Fable 17).2 4.9 Due to the effect of agro-climatic and soil characteristics, the potential productive land endowment per capita in most of Sub-Saharan Africa is even poorer than these simple acreage statistics suggest. Niger, for exmple, is even more densely populated than India or Bangladesh if account is taken of the extremely poor quality of its agricutural resource endowment. Nigeria and Senegal are more densely populated than the Philippines. And Mali, Burkina Faso and The Gambia are twice as densely settled as Indonesia (Binswanger and Pingali 1986; Matlon, 1990). 2 FPr oon _awon,p acrsgo in CMin= declined from 0.6 banom in 1965 to 0.4 heaperson in 1987. In India, it dclind f&om 0.3 ha/peo in 1965 to 0.2 ha/pemon in 1987 (TablO 17). - 29 - Population Pressure on Crop Land In Sub-Saharn Africa, 1961-1987 (total and rural population per hectare of crop land) 3.2 3.1 3 2.0 2.83 2.7 2.0 2.5- 2.4- t 2.3- 2.2- 2.1- 2 .7- O*1002 1004 1006l 100 1J*0 0" 10210 10013 0010 104 108 U tow~ 4- ruwGi 4.10 There is considerable diversity among countries, but everywhere fallow periods are becoming shorter as populations increase and the land frontier recedes. In many areas of countries, from Mauritania to Lesotho, fallow periods are no longer sufficient to restore soil fertility. Increasingly, farmers are compelled to remain on the same parcel of land, due to the unavailability of unoccupied land - yet they change their traditional farming methods only very slowly. 4.11 These people are faced with a critical dilemma: a central element of their traditional farming system - the ability to shift around on the land - is being eliminated by population pressure, yet they continue to use the other elements of their traditional production systems. Where fallow periods are too short, or non-existent, and where traditional cultivation techniques continue to be used, soil fertility deteriorates and soils are not conserved. Wind and water erosion, soil nutrient depletion, acidity, and deteriorating soil structure become common and increasingly severe. As a result, crop yields decline, forcing farmers to expand production along the already receding land frontier. This expansion occurs firstly within the vicinity of their settlements - on more steeply sloping land and in nearby forest, wetland and range areas. As this option becomes increasingly limited, people migrate to establish new farms, often in semi-arid areas and in tropical forests where soil and climatic conditions are poorly suited to the cultivation of annual crops and yields are therefore low. The migrants bring with them the lnowledge of those techniques they practiced in the areas they abandoned, and these are often detrimental to their new environment. Although they soon begin to experiment with simple modifications in farming techniques, this indigenous adjustment has been too slow in the 1970s and 1980s to keep pace with the rapid rate of population growth. 4.12 Good pasture land is diminishing as the most productive tracts are converted to cultivation. The mobility of pasturalists' herds is further reduced as settlers increasingly cultivate bottom lands previously available to herders during their dry season migration. The concentration of increasing numbers of livestock on smaller areas destroys pasture vegetation, further reducing their carrying capacity and contributing to range degradation and eventual desertification (Gorse mnd Steeds, 1987; Falloux and Mukendi, 1988; Nelson, 1988). - 30 - 4.13 Diminishing forest and woodland resources provide less fuelwood and fewer other forest products, many of which are of considerable importance for rural livelihood and survival systems. Similarly, surface and groundwater resources are increasingly affected by the drastic alterations in land uses and vegetative cover. The effects of the worsening fuelwood and water scarcity are most directly felt by some of the most vulnerable: women and children. More time and effort are required to obtain these vital commodities. Or people must manage with less of them. One consequence of reduced woodfuel availabiflty is the increasing use of dung and crop by-products as fuels (see para. 4.40). This reduces their availability as farming system inputs to maintain soil fertility. Similar effects result from diminished availability of, and access to, water for household and home garden use: health and sanitation standards deteriorate, and home girden productivity declines. 4.14 These problems are gravest in parts of the Sahel and of mountainous East Africa and in the dry belt stretching from the coast of .&ngola through southern Mozambique. The crisis is most acute in countries that already have little arable land per capita and high population growth rates, such as Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, most Sahelian countries, Nigeria, and Togo. There, soil degradation and loss of vegetative cover are advanced, and agricultural productivity is stagnating or declining. In parts of these countries, population pressure is causing farmers to intensify their production methods, but for the most part this is occurring much too slowly.3 4.15 There are other countries where it appears that land is more abundant in relation to their current population. These countries lie in Central Africa, humid West Africa and Southern Africa. However, much of the potentially arable land in Central and humid West Africa is under tropical forest. To preserve biodiversity, maintain rainfall, and preserve the humid climate on which its tropical agriculture is based, much of this area should not be cultivated. Instead, the humid forests need to be preserved. This land has not been cultivated so far because it is poorly suited to cultivation (except possibly of certain tree crops). Soils in Africa's rain forest zones are typically low in nutrients and of high acidity. Even in these more land-abundant countries, the problem which is the focus of this paper can already be observed. An expanding population depending on agriculture and livestock is moving into the tropical forest areas, extending crop production and grazing into areas that are agro-ecologically unsuited to these forms of land use. 4.16 Nz analysis is available that quantifies the impact of environmental degradation caused by more people practicing traditional shifting cultivation and transhumant and pastoral livestock raising. It has therefore not been possible to separate the contribution of this phenomenon to poor agricultural performance in Sub-Saharan Africa from that of the policy problems identified in para. 4.5. There appears to be little doubt, however, that these policy deficiencies have slowed down the evolution of traditional systems into systems more sustainable with higher population density. (A statistical test of this hypothesis is summarized in the box on pages 4142.) C. Land and Tree Tenure Systems and the Nexus 4.17 Critics of traditional tenure systems in Sub-Saharan Africa argue that they constrain agricultural productivity and cause environmental degradation - because land resources are not privately owned, but are either common property of a community, clan or ethnic group, or open- access resources owned by no-one at all. They further argue that users of such resources have no incentive to limit their consumption thereof because they cannot be certain that other users will similarly limit theirs. Lacking secure property rights, individuals are dissuaded from adopting long- 3 Olson (1990) provides an intraeting analysis for Rvanda. - 31 - term conservation, investment and production strategies. There are two possible solutions, it is argued, to this problem: (a) establishing firm rules, with enforceable sanctions, which limit individual use of the resource for the common good, or (b) individualization/privatizationof resource ownership and tenure, and registration of individual titles. In the critics' view, rapidly rising population pressure makes effective common ownership regulation increasingly more difficult. Based on the 'tragedy of the commons' argument, they urge that land be placed in individual private ownership. 4.18 Opponents of tenure individualization focus on its alleged negative impact on land distribution and social equity. Evaluations of tenure reform in Kenya and Botswana are cited as showing that individualization of land tenure has led to land grabbing, concentration of land ownership, defaao expropriation of women, landlessness and increasing marginalization. TX.v ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~...... ..'..v '-'''.''. ..h ............. i ,,flq@ hai a i4.,gti . ,,,4 ~nR ~bo~ 1s~bt.ad tiy ~ q. ,~ ~ Ay Q v... . .....n. flncaK. W a ind malz4 xfai tu X X idm i,Wt and.. meqbi -wo w.s m6a-ndab. .. ._*qi gj . b. W bi ad __gl~im b~w*ing sad begiW. ''r Smmpl (g"*f * 1 '"' " ' ' y be o ' ''' ''' -, tha oauipow4 ed; they * ~ ~ ~fg~ ~L 03404) * ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.... .. .. ... = : H :: :f Nff f .. f .f: g ': :: :: . 5.. . ..: ... : .... :: ..: ..:s:fl s l: ff Aat1iMdin dslt4nb weea eIe alosodh,tm l laat nivda o*pudV h ae oWsd h - 32 - 4.19 Reality is far more complex. There is a wide diversity of farming systems in Sub- Saharan Africa, determined by differences in population density, agro-ecological conditions, socio- political organization, lineage and descent definitions, inheritance and residence patterns, agricultural technology, and degree of commercialization. The correspondingly wide ringe of seemingly different land tenure systems is therefore not surprising. There are, however, important similarities among most of them. Most define land rights, particularly ownership rights, for groups. Individual or family use rights rest on customs recognized by the group. The group, not the individual, owns the land - although there is no formal recording or land titling. An individual's entitlement to the land is transitory, although in most cases lineages enjoy continuous use rights over specific parcels. As fallow periods become shorter and cultivation of plots becomes more continuous, land is increasingly retained by families, households or individuals and transferred or bequeathed under prevailing customary rules (Migot-Adholla et al., 1991). There is, thus, gradual institutional change in response to rising population pressure and this change accompanies and facilitates the evolution and intensification of agricultural production. 4.20 Customary tenure systems involve important intricacies. Ownership, management responsibility and use rights are often not identical. Use rights to different products from the same piece of land may be vested with different individuals or groups. Pastoralists and sedentary farmers may coexist on the same land, with farmers having cultivation rights and pastoralists grazing rights after crops are harvested. On the same plot of land, the right to the products of trees and the right to plant crops may be quite distinct and vested in different individuals or groups (see para. 4.23). 4.21 Where, under traditional tenure systems, usufruct rights are acquired simply by clearing and cultivating land, the incentive has been strong for settlers to move into previously uncultivated forest or savanna areas and to clear the land quickly in order to strengthen their claims and weaken those of other potential (even current) users.' This extends cultivation to marginal lands and imposes costs on the previous users - often pastoralists or traditional forest dwellers. As fallow periods shorten or valley bottoms are taken under cultivation, land rights of farmers tend to take precedence over those of herders who are then forced to remain on more marginal and more rapidly degrading rangeland. Where sedentary farmers and transhumant herders have coexisted in symbiotic land use systems, the incorporation of livestock activities into settlers' farming systems also tends to cause difficulties .,r the pastoralists who are then increasingly compelled to keep their herds on pasture land alone. As a result, soil fertility declines more rapidly on such range land (Gorse and Steeds, 1987; Stocking, 1987; Falloux and Mukendi, 1988; Nelson, 1988; Mortimore, 1989a and 1989b). 4.22 In many traditional tenure systems, land for farming is assigned to eligible claimants on the basis of their ability to clear it and to establish field crops. In others, bush or forest fallows tend to revert to communal authority and can be reassigned to another claimant. The shortening of fallows may therefore also be the result of the cultivator's attempt to safeguard his/her rights to the plot. It 4 in Mali, far me plouh moe ad thaey acth.uay iend to cop in ordwr to edtabli nd pro their lnd uS rig for the fiutur. Ploughing withwt establihng cops rend e,o land ven m vulneble to crosion than if it wev acbially cropped. In Nigeria, large ta of lnd for which number, of tho politi. and _onomic lite have obtaind ocupancy cerificates unde the prvisions of the 1978 Land Use Act am rapidly cleaed of vegetato wAth motoried equipmn so as to preclude a posibit of sallholda r.ning or boming actve in thi are Thi is an effective way of dimnating potential cntetant to the lad chimd undW tho povision of the Act, but it a is extemey abusive of the evonmnt. Even under govermnt-spond lnd dvlopmt hm, the abilWy to g rater, thn to develop, theo lAd is often a lky dterminan of ligibility. In Sudan, for examlo, tho pmatatal Mechanized Faming Corporato hs ben awardin 15-year as only to peple who clear 85 puma of dthir signod holdings in tr yas (Soe, 1990). - 33 - may also be caused by someone else moving in too soon after the previous cultivator has left the plot to natural regeneration becL land Is becoming scarce. 4.23 Understanding the .omplexities of traditional local tenure systems is especially important for understanding the incentive system that applies to agro-forestry interventions. It also often helps explain deforestation. Tree tenure may be distinctly different from land tenure.' One person or group may have rights to the land, while others have rights to the trees on it, or to certain products from certain trees at certain times. In northern Sudan, for instance, a tret and its fruits may belong in shares to the owner of the land, the person who provided the seedling, and the owner of the waterwheel that irrigates the land (Gregersen et al., 1989, p. 156). In some systems, tree clearing may be the only way to establish uncontested usufruct rights for cultivation. Elsewhere, tree planting may be regarded as laying claim to land. In many areas, diverse arrangements concerning rights in trees are common and of considerable relevance to those deciding whether or not to plant trees - and which trees." Tree tenure issues are particularly critical where deforestation is severe and the fuelwood crisis pressing, but also where tree crops have potential for environmentally sustainable and at the same time profitable agricultural development. In some countries, because all forest land is owned by the state, people fear that if they plant trees their land will revert to the government. In parts of the Sahel, people have been unwilling to plant certain trees because they are on the forest department's protected list, and to crop or prune them would require going through tedious procedures to prove they own the land and planted the trees and to obtain a cutting permit (Timberlake, 1986). 4.24 A recent World Bank study in Ghana, Kenya and Rwanda found that traditional land tenure systems do not appear to be insecure (Migot-Adholla et al., 1991). Many farmers enjoy transfer rights on their lands - although these rights may be subject to approval by family or lineage members. To the extent that the social system sanctions transactions in land, such transactions are sufficiently recognized. Traditional tenure systems continue to evolve, and many have over time accommodated increasing degrees of individual ownership and management control. Rapid population growth and growing commercialization of agriculture increasingly necessitate investing in land management and improvement, hastening the individualization of land rights (Migot-Adholla et al., 1989).7 In many cases, private rights to land have become virtually exclusive, although they fall short of outright ownership.' Other members of the community may have secondary concurrent or sequential rights that permit, for instance, fuelwood collection or livestock grazing. Inheritance has s 30* Rainu, I987, for a nmbr of dtied tree tenumt dudies in Sub-Sahavan Africa. Teure rogtsh in trmee comprins a variey of specific rgh, prinarily thos of caion (Le., plant, u~a an dispiosal 'I. rigts include: (a) gahring rit - e.g., th rWigh to gSther or lop dad branches for furewood, to gather things growing on a tbe (such as fungu or insect), or to Sather t produ from under th tre, such as fallen loaves or fiuit; (b) use of the sanding te - such as haging honey barls in it; (o) cunting pat or all of a living tree - e.g., for livestock fodder or biding mateil; (d) harvesting produce. The disposa right oompnises: (a) tho right to destroy (by uprooting or felling individual tre) or the dight to clear a section of foet; (b) the ight to lend; (c) the right to leas, mortgago, or pledge; (d) the fight to beuath; (e) teo right to sel (Gregeaen et aL, 1989, pp. 155-157). 7 Thr ar exception - sll found, for example, in south-eastern Nigeia or westn Sudan - whvre individual and famii may bo given accs to an amount of land but not a speific plot. In such qsyt, wher use dghts for cultivation of seaona crops tat ech year or aftr wsevd ya, indiiduals may ot be lken on making long-tem invostmmts in land inWovmenat (Migot-Adholls at aL, 1989). | Women's twdal scurity is generally far ls cetain than tht of mm - altgh the opposite may be tho cam in some matri-ea~matrilocal socits. - 34- emerged as the most significant form of acquisition of agricultural land in traditional rural society, and rights to such land are very secure; nevertheless, security of tenure is strengthened by continuous occupation and cultivation. Restrictions on the sale of inheritable land may still apply in some systems (as in the northern Mossi Plateau in Burkina Faso), but in others land has been sold for half a century or more and can be mortgaged and leased (as in the Hausa areas of southern Niger). Purchases are becoming an increasingly important means of acquiring land. This is occurring in Kenya, with its history of land registration and government intervention in land matters, but also in Ghana and Rwanda, where governments have been less activA :n providing and enforcing a well defined legal framework for land transactions (Migot-Adholla ei .1., 1989). 4.25 Problems arise as traditional tenure systems begin to impose constraints on evolving agricultural production systems and the adoption of technological change. Unfortunately, most African governments and most donors have mistakenly believed that traditional community ownership of land did not provide adequate tenurial security, and that it discouraged investment in the land. This perception arose largely from the failure to understand fully the intricacies of traditional tenure systems and the often subtle, but important differences among different communities' arrangements. A particularly important aspect of most, if not all, traditional African land tenure systems - the concept of the inalienability of land - has been widely regarded as an obstacle to agricultural development. Land markets did not readily develop, therefore, and land ownership was difficult to establish as collateral for institutional credit. 4.26 There has also been an erosion and X__- breakdown in customary laws and rules - s . governing sustainable use and management of . land and other common property resources. , This has occurred under the pressure of rapid apt pY population growth and has been exacerbated by "M Ww- large-scale migration in many countries as well . as by changes in social values and customs. Increasing commercialization of agriculture has , . t =i induced changes in land use, farming systems y and cropping patterns. Inappropriate pricing t signals arising from government interference in :. f _ input and output markets have often hastened =d such changes into unsustainable directions. And central political authorities have frequently o3c : undermined the capability of local decision- making bodies to manage their natural resource, environment by imposing tight controls over local organizations, removing authority to central agencies, and creating new organizations that compete or conflict with traditional ones (Blaikie and Brookield, 1987; Gorse and Steeds, 1987). In many areas, resources that were under effective communal management have, as a result, been converted into defacto open-access resources.9 4.27 The response of many governments has been to nationalize land ownership, but then to allow customary law to guide the use of some land, while allocating other land to private investors, political elites and public projects. This has reduced, not increased, tenurial security. Investing in the land becomes risky for &rmers, since governments can and do reallocate land to serve "national 'Nkby (19) deciba this asition in diyle-anm - 35 - purposes". In many cases this accelerates the breakdown of customary land management systems and emergence of open-access situations in which exploitation by anyone is permitted. Open-access systems, found especially in forest and range areas,'° result in rapid environmental destruction - a repetition of the process widely observed before the agricultural transformation in Europe and usually (albeit mistakenly) labeled "the tragedy of the commons." Users of such resources have no incentive to limit their exploitation because they cannot be certain that others will similarly curtail theirs. Open-access systems are not conducive to resource conservation or investment in land. This problem was resolved in Europe largely by the allocation of land to individual owners who then had an incentive to invest in it, develop it and conserve it. 4.28 As noted earlier, there may be a further problem in open access systems, which may also be a proUem of traditional tenure systems. Granting access to land for cultivation to members of a community on the basis of ability to cultivate it may be a disincentive to control human fertility, because the ability to cultivate is ganerally determined by the ability to mobilize family labor (e.g., Amankwah, 1989, p. 21).11 Field studies report this to be an important incentive to increase family size through polygamy and/or pressure on women to bear man-y children. 4.29 The "solution" often proposed to solve these problems is the allocation of individual land titles, through large-scale titling programs. But the experience with such programs has been poor. Individualized land titiing in Kenya and Botswana has facilitated land grabbing, concentration of ownership and concomitant landlessness. Such land grabbing had been practiced by European colonists, and some of the new elites often used the same methods. However, the problems in Kenya and Botswana may be associated more with the problem of transition from traditional to modern tenure systems. The rights of traditional land and tree owners were largely not respected in Kenya and Botswana, and members of the political and economic elite too easily manipulated the legal and administrative systems to wrest land from its traditional owners. However, once obtained, individual land ownership does provide an incentive to develop and maintain the land. This can be witnessed, for instance, in the intensive sustainable farming practiced by smallholders in the Kenya highlands, by private landowners in Zimbabwe and Botswana, and on tree crop plantations in Cote d'Ivoire. 4.30 To avoid the problems associated with an excessively rapid move to private individual land tiles, or the even greater problems of nationalization of land ownership, it will be prudent to establish legal protection of traditional tenure systems, combined with a mechanism to provide individual or group titles on demand and only with the agreement of the traditional land owners and users (such as pastoralists). Only a demand-driven process of individual land titling will be possible and advisable in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, as traditional land tenure systems break down, and to resolve existing problems in open access systems, land tiding will be necessary for agricultural growth, soil conservation and forest protection. 10 In much of the West Afican Sah-cSudanian Zone, pasture and oven crp land are often uratd as a froe good unr curent policiea. Wells havo be sunk to permit accs to odensibly un- or under-exploited rmngeand, and settles in les densely populated are ar not wbject to any land-use guiddine. In both cases, legal inceives would hep by offering land rights in exchango for mamagemaet rponsibilites (Gone and Steeds, 1987). In most cowuni, forst land has been taken over by govemmenb, overiding theho ts of indiges populaion.. Thogh nominany controLed, tso "proteted" or vreserved forsb have beoom viually open-access zmours for larg- nd ll-scale exploibtaion, becwas th reponible agencie have not been ablo to prvwid effective manat (Repeuo and Holms, 1983). Acces to non-family lbo is limitd in mos of nrul SSA Hiring wage lbor is rely an option, smply beause the is, as yet, no class of landles labos, although popuation presur is lading to the energen of sassonal and migat wage labor in many countie. More conunon in many conunies is the tradiional practice f poling labor for cetain tasku, sonm among gender and age mat within a vilage, mome often a nu member of a largr kisi gru. - 36 - E. Deforestation, Fuehwood, and the Nexus 4.31 In arid and semi-arid areas, the need for woodfuel is a major cause of the reduction in tree cover. Excessive lopping and felling, combined with poor regeneration capability, have set in motion a downward trend that has been sharply accelerated by prolonged periods of drought and increasing livestock pressure on young regrowth. Woodfuel extraction considerably exceeds naural regrowth in many areas. Fuelwood shortages in fact limit the 'carrying capacity" of arid and semi- arid West Africa more than do low crop and livestock yields (Gorse and Steeds, 1987, pp. 13 & 28). 4.32 Woodfuels are the staple source of household energy, with 90 percent of all households using them for cooking, the main end-use of energy in Sub-Saharan Africa (Barnes, 1990a). Some agro-processing and rural artisanal and semi-industrial activities (e.g., fish smoking, shea nut processing, pottery, brick making, smithies, beer brewing, etc.) also use considerable quantities of woodfuels.12 In many countries, woodfuels are used in industrial production as well (tanneries, cigarette and match production, breweries, tea factories). In the early 1980s, wood accounted for over three fourths of to al energy supply in 13 of Sub-Saharan Africa's 16 least developed countries (de Montalembert and Clement, 1983). In urban areas, charcoal is partly replacing wood. 4.33 The fuelwood problem is a function primarily of population density and of agro-climatic and vegetation zone and is, therefore, very region- and location-specific. A 1983 FAO study (de Montalembert and Clement, 1983) identified the regions where people faced acute fuelwood scarcity or deficits.' The most vulnerable areas include the arid and semi-arid zones south of the Sahara as well as eastern and southeastern Africa and the islands and mountainous regions. Fuelwood deficits were identified in the savanna regions of West, Central and East Africa. The number of people affected by fuelwood shortages, already large, is expected to increase steaGily: v The arid regions face the most severe problem - where the woodfuel scarcity is a more severe limit on the land's carrying capacity than food production capability. e In the more densely populated savanna zone, only 25 to 50 percent of total fiuelwood needs can be met from annual regrowth; conditions for tree regrowth are generally favorable, but rapid population growth is causing problems. * In the less densely populated savanna, supply is still adequate for the resident population, but needs could rapidly outstrip supply in the absence of appropriate interventions. * In Central Africa, with tropical forests and low population densities, woodfuel supplies are likely to be adequate well into the next ceanury. However, increasing rates of cutting are contributing to deforestation and the resulting environmental problems. * The coastal strip along the Gulf of Guinea has excellent conditions for tree growth, and tree plantations are widespread. Fuelwood supply is adequate, but this will change in the near future, especially around the large and rapidly growing urban concentrations. 2 In Malawi, 100 kg of fimwod an used to cm 3-12 kg of tobacco; in CIh d'lvoim, 100 kg of wood am used to muoa 66 kg of fish (ankicm and Davison, 198). 3 Populaton ficing *act soaty' we defined as thos in ara whom eneg requimnts could not be met oven by aking wood an a non-sustai bas or by manlg us of anmal wab. Populatims ficing a fuciwood 'defici' an ths in areas wheo fiel need wtm aw by tng wood an a nouiWnable basis. - 37 - * The densely populated highlands of Eastern Africa already face woodfuel deficits. Reforestation efforts in Burundi and Rwanda have been rather successful, but unable to keep pace with demand growth. 4.34 In 1980, eleven countries faced negative fuelwood supply-dmand balances: BurkinaFaso, Burundi, Chad, The Gambia, Kenya, Malawi Niger, Rwanda, Swaziland, Tanzania and Uganda (rable 19). By the end of the century Ethiopia, Madagascar, Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Sudan and Zimbabwe are expected to join this list. Since a significant switch to other fuels is not likely or possible in the short to medium term, population growth translates almost directly into a growth in demand for woodfuels (except to the extent that fuel use efficiency is improved). Yet continued reliance on woodfuels is clearly threatened in many regions by unsustainable exploitation. 'p35 Over time, urbanization will facilitate a switch to non-wood fuels, but urban Africa stiU depends very heavily on wood. Woodfuels are the fuel of the poor, including the urban poor. In many cities, as much as 90 percent of all households use woodfuels for cooking. Fuelwood prices in urban areas are high and rising. In some cities spending on fuelwood now claims up to 20 percent of the income of poor households. Urban demand for woodfuels has been far more destructive of forest resources than rural fuelwood gathering, mainly because of inappropriate policies. Rapid urban growth has led to intense cutting of wood on a large scale around cities and along the major roads. Wood is brought from considerabe distances, charcoal from even farther, and there are increasingly wider rings of deforestation around cities such as Ouagadougou, Dakar and Niamey. Woodfuels are supplied to major cities in eastern Africa such as Mogadishu from as far as 500 km away. Since the . ... ... wood itself is virtually cost-free to commercial _ .iE. L . suppliers, the cost of trucking woodfuels to urban 4 markets is the main determinant of the distance = = * from which woodfuiels are brought. Thne notv duielo4w*ocmtWhla commercialization of the urban fuelwood and charcoal economy has increased the utility of rural fuelwood sources: under subsistence conditions, s j local fuelwood resources were used only to meet o abw local demand, but these resources can now also be x # ' t exploited for sale outside. 14 4.36 As studies in Botswana, Malawi, Nigeria and Tanzania have confirmed, woodfuel demand first increases with rising income and later declines with increasing substitution of kerosene, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and electricity. The potential for such interfuel substitution depends heavily on economic grow,th and on income distribution in cities where economies of scale can be realized in meeting demand for fuel from such alternative sources. It also depends on pricing policies and supply security at the consumer level (Bames, 1990a). To the extent that slow economic growth and rapid population growth prevent significant increases in average per capita incomes, demand for woodfuels wiU continue to increase about as rapidly as population growth. Moreover, even if aggregate economic growth can be accelerated, but is inequitable and leads to widening disparities in income distribution, this will impede the switch to non-wood fuels. u4 Limied and ineolad smitce demand s epbad by mtes nd elic export dmad (fom the udpoiAt of the loa conomy), leadg to much moe apid aes of uploiaon thn would be impied by loa populat gowtb alone (Repeo and Holmes, 1983). ITh colecon of fuwood and its sa in uebnpui-uan aea by poor nual womwn, on er own acoout or under wage conuct to com_ril tade, i an obvious ampl. - 38 - 4.37 The brunt of the fuelwood crisis falls on women: they must manage household energy needs through fuel collection, preparation and use.'" Children increasingly have to help with this task. Girls in particular have to help in fuelwood fetching, fuel preparation, cooking and tending the fire. In Tanzania, girls help their mothers as soon as they can walk. In many parts of Africa it is not uncommon for mothers to take their daughters from school to help them gather fuel. Women (and children) have to walk increasingly further and take more time to collect fuelwood.'6 This time is diverted from other pressing tasks - including timely crop planting and weeding (thus depressing crop yields) and child care (which is increasingly entrusted to school-age girls kept at home). When fuelwood sources were more abundant, fuel gathering could often be combined with other activities, such as walking home from school or from the market or field. With increasing scarcity, fewer sources and longer distances, the loads carried become larger and heavier," more time is required, and the opportunity to combine wood fetching with other tasks is reduced. 4.38 Fuel scarcity leads to changes in nutritional patterns, especially to fewer meals being cooked and/or meals being cooked less well (Timberlake, 1986, p. 34). This has nutritional and health implications. In the Sahel, many families have gone from two to only one cooked meal per day (Agarwal, 1986); others mix uncooked millet with water for a midday meal (Tinker, 1987). A study in Rwanda found that 62 percent of families cook only once a day and 33 percent cook even less frequently (Dankelman and Davidson, 1988, p. 71). Fuel shortages also induce shifts to foods which require less energy to cook, but may be less nutritious. Women in Burkina Faso refused to use soybeans for food because of the long cooking time and greater fuel requirement compared with the traditional cowpeas (Hoskins, 1979) - until someone taught them how to ferment the beans into soybean cake which reduced the heating time from as much as 12 hours to only one hour (Tinker, 1987). Switching to raw or partially cooked food or to cold leftovers is becoming more common (Dankelman and Davidson, 1988, p. 71). The shortages of fuelwood, of food and of women's time combine into a serious nutritional and health problem. Partial cooking can cause significant health problems. Water purificaticn also requires boiling - not possible without fuel and ime. Hot water to wash dishes, utensils, laundry and children may be out of the question (Dankelman and Davidson, 1988, pp. 71-72). The impact of nutritional and health problems on labor availability and productivity for agriculture and other income-generating activities is, of course, negative. 4.39 The intensifying fuelwood shortage has another important negative effect on rural women. Many of their non-farm income-earning activities require fuelwood: food processing, beer brewing, fish smokdng, pottery, etc. Fuelwood scarcity therefore severely constrains their opportunities to supplement their income through such activities. This is an increasingly critical issue in view of the widespread gender-separation of budgets and women's almost exclusive responsibility for child rearing (see Chapter V). 5 Men do nat usuy involve thmuselva in fuel poviso fbr te oushold ubida condtions, but thm an exceto. Thy usualy Wm over oly whe th fie eomy become. 16 in pus of Sua, the time nd to fec fudwood i sd mom han fotufold between the nid-1970 and the mid- 198Ch (Aauv4 1986. 7 Womn vay ramly have woe to ay laborsavig teohnology for thidr tk - tsport a or effiient cutting tools for cutin or felng. They cah loads to reduco the umber of trips rquid to provide fuel for hir houehold (and ofen their non-farm incomeearing acivity wel). They may heoad a much as 35 kg (even though in many counties 20 kg u the do nxium llly perisible hcadld for wome) over distnc of up to 10 kn, often over diffiut taiun. Cyig much heavy lo dae th spn, cuMng dificlti during pncy and oWldbith, us up subdaal enr, mu is a aw of frequnt accide. - 39 - 4.40 Eventually, women have little choice but to switch to other fuels. Interfuel substitution in rural Sub-Saharan Africa usually means a switch to less efficient fuels - most commonly to crop byproducts and residues and dung which are far more valuable if recycled as inputs into the farming system to help maintain soil fertility. Many such fuels are less convenient than firewood or charcoal, requiring more tending and fire-feeding, generating more smoke and less heat, etc. Cooking may take longer and require even more fuel than before. Diverting them to use as fuel has significant negative effects on soil fertility, water retention, crop yields, and soil degradation and erosion. This is increasingly happening, for example, in areas such as the Ethiopian highlands and the northern part of the Sahelo-Sudanian Zone."8 The importance of agricultural wastes and dung for fertility management in farming systems is particularly critical as fllows are shortened and recycling of crop waste and dung becomes essential in the move towards agricultural intensification. Under the agro- ecological conditions of much of Sub-Saharan Africa, this is extremely important: organic matter is quickly mineralized in the absence of shading tree canopies, and nutrients are leached rapidly from most soils. 4.41 There are many causes for the fuelwood problem, including the traditions of its use and the absence of alternative fuels. The major reason for the lack of success in introducing alternative fuels is that wood has been regarded in most of Sub-Saharan Africa as a free good, taken largely from land to which everyone has the right of access ("open access' land). As a result, a market for fuelwood has not developed in many countries despite its increasing scarcity. Even where fuelwood scarcity and high transport costs have created a market, the 'producer price' of wood has remained below its replacement value because most supplies come from open-access forests. Market prices do not include the environmental costs of heavy fuelwood extraction. Alternative energy sources, such as kerosene, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and electricity are costly; their cost more closely reflects their scarcity value since they are not obtainable in 'open-access' form. Despite dwindling forests and wood supplies, other fuels are diot substituted in significant quantities, because the price of fuelwood is lower than that of alternative fuels. Investments in kerosene, LPG and electricity supply systems must be made more efficient to make them more price competitive with fuelwood. Fuelwood prices, conversely, need to be increased. Chapter Vm suggests ways how this can be done. F. LoggIng 4.42 Commercial logging also takes a heavy tol - in large part because of inappropriate logging policies and practices. It is, in fact, probably not so much the quantity logged but rather the procedures used that are the chief cause of forest destruction."9 Logging concessions are often awarded as a form of political patronage. Logging practices are rarely monitored or controlled, and abusive logging practices are so common as to have become the norm (Repetto, 1988a; Spears, 1988). Stumpage fees tend to be very low, further encouraging extensive and destructive logging (Grut, Gray and Egli, 1991). Replanting is rare, because there is neither an incentive nor a requirement to do it. Concession agreements usually require neither replanting nor maintenance of concession areas as a forest. Most are also too short in duration to provide any inducement to the concession-ires to manage the concession areas for sustaunable long-term multi-cycle production. Concessions are often abandoned once mined. In some cases, governments subsidize logging through 8 In Epia, an aceive urbn manet for ani dung ha deeloped whe fuelwood ruce havo becomo dplet (Andern and Fishwick, 1984). Onm dudy esmated dth dung ued asfl ain Ediopia in 1983 would have incased th counuy's cereal ouW by 1-1.5 million tons if it had been used a foeilr inzw ead (Newooomb, 1989, p. 132). 9 Commorcial logging by itmelf is rsponsible for only about 10 to 20 pencit of foret deaucion in Sub-San Afria, but it hm been conadeably moan de Xtuctiv in some counrie, sch as CMte d'lvoirs. -40- tax and duty exemptions and through governmental financing of roads and infrastructure in forests. Subsidies provided to wood processing industries have the same effect. Areas closer to ports appear to be most abused, with high transport costs probably the most important factor protecting inland forests against logging in parts of Central Africa. 4.43 There is widespread agreement among students of the situation that logging in tropical forests, as presently practiced, is not consistent with the sustainability of rainforest ecosystems. It has been argued that logging itself, if properly undertaken, need not necessarily destroy the forests. However, recent surveys suggest that there are no sustained-yield forest management systems practiced on any sizeable scale in Western and Central Africa (Goodland, 1991, p. 14; Besong and Wencelius, 1992). Even selective logging for certain species and/or trees of certain size is prone to disrupt these fragile ecosystems with their multitude of highly specialized life-forms and of intricate multiple symbiotic relationships so severely that they will not survive intact. Although less directly linked to the Nexus, population growth will stimulate more logging, with its significantly negative impact on the enviroment. Through the environmental impact may come declines in rainfall, increases in water run-off and, hence, declines in agricultural yields (see Chapter U). 4.44 Logging almost invariably leads to a second - and usually even more damaging - phase of forest destruction. Logging roads provide access for land-hungry settlers into areas previously difficult to enter. Moving along and spreading out from the logging roads, landless or shifting cultivators rapidly take over logged-over forest areas, clear the remaining vegetation and convert the land to agricultural uses - usualy at very low levels of productivity. This accelerates and expands the process of deforestation begun by the logging companies. Logging concessionaires ordinarily acquire rights to log from governments, ignoring the traditional land and forest rights of forest dwellers. These rights, once eroded, are not respected by new settlers pcnetrating along the logging roads. 4.45 In virtualy all countries of Sub-Saharan Africa, the institutions charged with managing and protecting national forest resources tend to be very weak. Forest guards and rangers often have neither the operating resources nor the training even to monitor adequately what is happening in the forest. They are even less well equipped and prepared to regulate logging companies, deal with poachers, assist forest dwellers, and prevent encroachment of land-hungry settlers. These institutional weaknesses are so grave that even in many parks farmer encroachment and logging occur on a significant scale. Forest services have little capacity to plan, to levy taxes, to undertake land use surveys, to deal with land disputes in forests (Besong and Wenc&lius, 1992). 4.46 The causes of the logging problem are related to those of the fuelwood problem. Forests have been widely regarded as reservoirs of free goods to be mined. Governments share in the bounty with private loggers through stumpage fees and taxes. However, once the forest disappears, the environmental services it provides disappear with it. It is disappearing fast. - 41 - StatsticalA to Exlain box-Country Vad . In Cop Vld 1. May of ho rlatohips describd in this chapter cannot be invesatedsatcay using aggregated data. Howowv, limited teting may tablish tho plausbili of the hypothee: * Crp yids shd be higher wh popuati i grwig most apidly rltve to utvated land. People begn to inuefy agrclu as cultvable area per peson docline. Heon, dtatical analys should show an invero ratonshp betwom arma cultivated per penon and crp yies (all oder thing equo. However, the nrt of growth in yields stimulat by declining availabili of cultivablo land per peron will be significantly owe than dth ate of population growth. * Effort to simulat intensification, throush d use of feilior, for eample, wil ignificanty accelee di m in crop yields beyond tho growth ate stinwl by riing popuatn density so. This should bo obsved as highor yields in coutres using mor feilizer (all r thins equal). * Primay chool education, of mmn and women, should facilitate fae adopon of intensive farming technique and therfore be asociated with higher erop yidds. * Ceom pawbs, cowntr wih mom rpd dogadaton of thdr natural resourne endowment, a reled in highr rate of defor ion, should have lower cmp yield. * Finally, contr with a policwy nvinmemt mor accommxoati for pofiable mankt-onted fanming should hav higher crop yields than countr with less conducive polie. 2. Ths hypo e wee teted by deteminig the statcl elaonsip bween ceel yl (averags for 1984- 1986) as the dependent variable, using a indepdent variable: ultivated ar per pence (averge 1965-1987), ferilizer us per ha in 1987/88 (fedilizr us mained fiddy sble in the 1980b), percentage of the chool-ago populati in primary hool (avage 1965-1987), the ate of deforaon in dio 1980s, nd the g_enerl appropriateness of agculur policy during tho paiod 1980 to 1987. CMhe mehodology applied is desribed in more dtail in the Annex which also pres tho dda ued for this nalysi.) Except for thdo re of deforetion, th vahs for each varable woer convcetd to their natural logarithm nd a rgroeion equation wa fit to dies. d; di coerfficint rpord bdow theefore pent easticio. Policy appropriatenes is represented by a dwnmy vaiable havig theo vae I for cowun wher poliy i judged to have been conduoive to profitable agulur, nd 0 wher it is judged to have bee inappropa. Of dio 38 counti consderd, 24 wer judged to have prued inapprpr police, 14 approprite. Th ratng of ountries is consistt with d cateorizaion by tho Wodd Dnkl it is, howevr, ighy subjective. The rolo of women in agriu and the ffect of t lnd tenure situaon could aot be quanified and therefore wer not testd in their impat on yids. 3. Th equation is as follows, whern the depandent variable is avergo cead yidds in 1984186 (nural logrithm): Indeoendent o^4b T-d 2-Tfficiot 2iTail Sienifiano Tedt Conoant 5.45 10.1 1% Cultiva ha par penon (a) 0.33 (b) 2.5 2% Pedlierwo uper ha (a) 0.10 (b) 1.7 10% Prmy school enrollment (a) 0.17 (b) 1.2 24% Deforstion rate 0.05 0.9 39% Agr _ulul policy dummy 0.30 1.9 7% Adjuted R squard - 0.45 P Staisi - 7.0 (a) Convcded to natirl logaithm. (b) Reprsentb cticity. 4. Th equation explain about 45% of tho differnc in ceal yields aong do 38 cunta . The unelained portion will be due to rainfall diffemences beween counties, to diffrences in thdi rlo of wmn in arulur production systems, to differec in land aurr problems, to differce in soil degation ad oil fetiity. and to data problen. -42 - S. Conaitet with th hypotheses, the lower t cultivated are per person, die higher ae col yieds, ali other thing being equal lbo sttito relationship io hig sinfica, with a T-atstia of 2.5 and with a 2-tail signifiae test of2% (indicating only a2% probi that thecoefficiet is aualy zeo and a 98% probability tt it is not zeo). h suggests tat th prer to uinturw* producion mounts with _nreaig populat deny on cautivated land; it is A even when the ue of fetilizr and dh modem input, to poiiy envromnt and prmay shool enrollment rates ar held onstaa This rflects fumir' abiity to respond to rag population deniy with imple innovationa. But, also condiet with tho hypothees, tho coeffient is I thon 1, suggesing that a 3.1% aiuwal decle in cultivated area per pon (due to popui growth at this rta) wi only stimulato people to inondify fanviing at a rate of about 1% per year - Le., much dloww an th rt of populto growth itef. Hisrically, this is what happened. Crop la nded at km than 1% p.a., and yidds inorasd on aveago by slightly more than 1% p.a., giving an agriculal output growth of only about 2% per year for SSA a whole for the 1965-1990 period. 6. A 1% incroe in fertilintenosy is associated with a 0.1% incras in creal yieds. The coefficiet is significant satsially (2-tail tes of 10%, indiatig a 90% probabiliy tht the coeficiet is not zer). Since feriizer us is ext_emly low in SSA (aveaging 85 gams per ha in 1987/88, compaed to China, for example, whoe it is 2,360 gSha), her is vas scope for increasing its ue. Tnis is alo btu for other modem tools nd inpu, with which ferdlize use is highly corlatod; gives this coroelation, tho fertie variable also picb up the effect of tho use of other moden nuts. Growth rates of ferdlze us (and other moden inputs) of 10-15 parent per year during dth next decade are feasible. This od latgrowth of col yids, ordg to tu qution, by between 1.0% and l.S% peryear. 7. A 15% ices in ho prportion of primary school-ago chUden eolled in school is asocia with an 0.17% inoa in cerd yied. Th sbtic rlonship i weak, but when added to the widnce cited in tho tet, it suggsb tho plubiity of bettr overal educonal tanueat having a positive impact on famn produ ty. This makes ss, sine in most SSA oouate the majority of the aduk population is wodring in agriulture and asociated activities. Furthe asia tetin will be undertaken with additionl data now being compiled. 8. Th dumA y variable resting aiclural poLicy adequacy is statistically gnifict in explining ceral yield vadation bdween ountrie. A btter policy enviromt is asoaed with higher yield, all other things equal 9. Consistent wih the hypothi, oeuntrs expeiencig the most rpid deforaion have lower cral yeld, all other thi equaL But the saia rdeionship shows no sgnificance. Futr ting with better d will be undertaken, since the oepifi evidenc rferenced in the tet is srng. The pxoblen may be tht deforestation is endogenous. The stast tab mwmaized in tho folowing box suggest that defortion iteaf is lad to population densiy on cultivated land, intsity of frtilizer ue, and agricultual policy. Therforo, when assessing the determinants of cwop yilds ross countrier, the aotr factona already picking up the inpact of defonrtat, thus laving deforestion a oh with a coffioien t significanty differnt frm zero. 10. Te oame equation wa teed substituting as a dependt variables the yields of maizo, sorghum, rice and caswa, respectively. The resl am ported in tho Annex. In geneal, the sBgth of the cornrlatn bewon am cultivated por pes sd yids is confinned (the lr tho ae, the lower th yield - except in the cas of irrigated rice wher no staisl relationship is evidet). Petilizer us is most offeadve on maize, but show no au istical rlatonship with yiel of tho subsistence crp sorgbum and casaa A good policy onvironent is most inWortant for coal, especially rioe an sorghum, but seem to bavo had Sltl irportance as roegads cauva. Deforesation h a negative impct on sorghun yiddo, which ae senitive to environmen problem, but not on rice (rown with irigation) or casva (a hardy crop). Prmay school ement apper to have had no sttistical associa with the yields of any of tho four crps indidully tosed. 11. The above albsis also uggeo the plausbility (thougb not tho likelihbood) of achieving 4% p.a. average growth of agriculture in SSA. This could our from. moe labor uso per ba facilited by continued population growth (oausng a 1% incroes in anm ouput growth); 1.5% aninal yield growth aributable to a 15% aimal incres in the use of ferilizer (ond of other modern inputs); and a rate of expanion in cropped am of 0.5% p.a. Thu gives a total output growth ra of 3.5% p.m. An inue in the muo ber of cunri with appropriae agriulura policy, and primary hool emollment increasing at 2% per yor, ud uffiic to pwvido th addional 0.5% annIal growth rateo quird to rach the posated agega trge Howvr, in tho long run, a popuain gowth slows, the sope for poticy improvmnt nurows, and furer expnion of ap ped am bom bm fouible, stining 4% annual growth will become mo- dificuL It wil depend increasingly on grater use of modem iutb and equiment, ganetc improvement in cops and livestock, and improvements in people's educational atauricat. Hence th importano of improved a lal nh and ension nd of geald education. - 43 - Stats" Analy* to Expan Intr-Country Variadon In Om Rate of Deforation 1. The analysis in Chptr IV suggest that deforeation is rlated positively to population presu on cultivatod area (the lower the cultivated ara per peson, tdo higheb tho rt of deforeatdon), to th rate of popation growth (the hih the rat of population growth, th higher the rate of deforstaon due to land cleaing and fuelwood gathering), and with policie favorable to agriultur (the more profitable agroiur and logging, the moe rapid tho clearing of fores). It is negatively elated with the use of modem farm input such as frdtlizu (the greater the uw of modern farm inputs, the lower tho need to clear more foet land for faming). ')pen acces lad tenr siaution, wer aso hypothesized to stimulate deforeation, but this cannot be mured. 2. To teat the above hypothesis, regreson analysis was undertakn with the rate of deforesation 1980-1988 as the depeden variable. Indepndet variables include the number of hoctares cultivated per prson (averge 1965-1987), ferilizer uw per hectare (1987/88), the population grwth rte (1965-1990), and the agricult policy dummy variable. Th resulting equation is aS follows: Indenendent Variable C T-i c 2-Tail Sienificane Test Consant -0.54 0.41 69% Cultivated ha per person (a) -0.60 (b) 1.50 15% Ferdlizer W4 per ha (a) -0.19 (b) 1.17 25% Population growth rate 0.56 1.40 17% Agiultural policy dummy 0.76 1.65 11% Adjusted R squared = 0.09 F-sAistic - 1.92 (a) Convcrted to natinl logarithm. (b) Reprene esdaticity. 3. None of the variable. is atically ignificant at the 90% level or above (having a 24al significance test of 10% or less) in its assciation with deforestion. But agricual policy, cultivated land per person and population growth ar clorn enough to tho 90% sgnificmc level to suggest, when combined with the sitspecific evidenc noted in the text, the plausibility of the hypothesis. The coefficients are consis_t with the hypothsis. However, the overall equation is not good at xplaining vadation among counties in tho rate of deforetation. Num us other unquardifiable facotrn are at play, such as the land tenure situation, infll, and loging po1Icics. The povrty of the data also reduces the tightne of the fit. Additional data are being compiled to permi fiuther testing. 4. Despite the poor oveall fit of the equation, it suggests tho posdbility that cowtrie with more cultivated area per pon have lower rats of deforetaton, all other things being equaL Comuns with higor iteniy of fetilizer ue have lower ra of deforetation. Countries with mor rapid population growth have higher rte of deforstation. Caunis with btter agriculul policy have ighr tes of deforesion - implying a tdeoff between agrclta growth and defotation. S. If further testng with better data confirms thoe ai lidity of thes r aohips, it will ugget that dowing population growth and intensifying agiltu wowd slow the ratc of deforeation. Although poor agriultural policy (which uually also ctails poor policy for the timber indusry) would reduce deforeation, this i not a useful instunt, becacw the objecive cf acceleating agricuural growth wil override that of reducing deforation in every country. Hence the impor of environmental action plans and land we plnning, which develop mitigating actions to reduce tho negative envionental impact of imprvod agriultur policy, and which should seve to focus agriulura growth into viomentlly le destrucve channels (Chapters DC and X). -44- Stadsta Anala to Explain Intw-Countr7 Varldons In the LA of Wlldernm Ara 1. Table 20 shows the poeentgo of widaneo ar lost sce about 1900 in each African coury. As in tho cas of deforestation, it is ypothesied that t doegee of widwnu loss is asoiatd with declining leveb of cultivable land pr parn, but in rxiuc by itetsification of agricultur. An improved ag iculal poliy environmt is ikey to s1mu the destton of wildemes a by fame. In addition, it is hypotheiz that betr educated peoplo wil show mor concen about the environmnt and, hence, tht counties with hig ates of primy school enrollment will havo lowr rates of wldaen lo. 2. Stabstcl regression an was uwed to explor tho above hypoteis, wth th percentage of wildernes kom the dependet variable. The rsl is an follows: I dent Vyenablo T-statistiffl£c 2-Tad Sipmificanoe Test Constant 76.9 8.8 1% Cultivated ha per persn (a) -7.2 (b) 1.4 17% Fetilizw ua pr ha (a) -2.6 (b) 1.1 28% Pdmary whool arolhment raw 40.2 1.9 7% Agriltuua policy dumy 11.0 1.8 8% Adjusted R equated = 0. 15 F-statistic = 2.5 (a) Convcetd to natural logarithm. (b) Reprean esticity. 3. Th signs of the codefients are const with the hypothes. Br cultivated e per pon and intenty of feilier w u a not satscaly ignificant at the 90% lovel (i.e., showing a 2-t4l dgnifSoan tea of 10% or less). The re a intaersting enough, howover, to suggest the pluibilby of the hypothesis, pclarly in combination with the loca fc evidenc emviewed in theo udy. Furthr teing with adt l data hs boen ited. 4. Me coefficint suggest the posibility that he greater the avail a under cultivation per person, the lower h ratw of wilderneo los. The higher th intensy of fealer us, the lower the wilderness lo. The greater the pecentage of choolage childrn in pimay school, the les the wildrne . The better the agiulu policy, the mor the widers bs. However, the overall equation expl only a snall pat of the variaton anmg countries in wild l. Factons such land tewur, expa of pua nud resves, Govenmnt fficiency in managing par ad rsves, nd delpment of infructure in widenes ars likely to affect tho maintenance of wilderness area. Data probem also explain some of the lack of fit. S. If further tating establishes th ac vaidity of thse findings, the operonl clusidon will be that a reduction in the rate of growth of populat, intefication of agrclu, and expanded prmay shool education would rduc the speed of wilderne ss. Since it would not be legitimate to didort arclul policy in order to conserve the renaining widerne area, the negaive impact on the wilderns of fvoable agricultural policy will have to be offt Tis Sgain underores the importanc of envuinent action plns antd la us plaing. Unfortunately, the stasal analysi tells nothing of the need for land tenure reform, the derbility of cixpandg proteted a , and other acuos to conseve to wiens. V. THE ROLE OF WOMEN IN RURAL PRODUCTION SYSIrMS A. Introduction 5.1 A central aspect of the population-agriculture-environment Nexus is the role of women: * in their traditional child bearing and rearing role, women directly influence both the size and the quality of the future stock of human resources; * in their household management role, women are the primary managers and users of a variety of natural resources (most notably fuelwood and water); * in their farming role, women are responsible for a very substantial share of foodcrop production and a variety of other agricultural activities, and their decisions and activities have a direct bearing on soil fertility and erosion, water infiltration and retention, and waste and by-product recycling. 5.2 Women's triple role - child bearing and rearing, household management, production activities - and the increasing pressures on their time and energy have important consequences for human resource development, agricultural productivity and environmental sustainability. As their agricultural work load grows, women face rising pressures in their role as household managers, and their childbearing and child caring burden rema ns as heavy as ever. Technical, legal and institutional i i 9 e9 pe:ox, o mi developments have added further constraints on - - by women (e.g., land titling, access to credit and w f d t g n extension, research orientation, etc.). The = Wwe . C promotion of rash crops, mechanization, extension and formal credit systems have mainly been . ; ifl4.=f: - : . .e I 5 directed at men. As men turn to non-farm work, ; women increasingly become de facto managers of w in tB.:s b3i wwaea. 3R lIhad the family farm. In many areas, 50 percent and den vie.. more of all farms are managed by women - yet a traditional and legal constraints remain severe. - w o w Fuelwood and water supplies are becoming of t e. hd v increasingly scarce, and more time is required to _ obtain them.' The intensifying time constraint means that women either reduce the time spent on certain tasks or depend increasingly on tbe labor of their children. This may be one of the factors explaining the persistence of high fertility rates. 5.3 Efforts to intensify agnculture, conserve natural resources and reduce population growth will therefore have to be focussed to a significant extent on women. Ihese efforts will have to aim, inter alia, at: reducing women's severe time constraints; lowering the barriers to women's access to land, credit and extension advice; introducing technologies useable by and beneficial to women; and upgrading women's educational standards and skills. Coupled with their often infeior healt, nutritional and educ atonal sat, thea preamure also render womm poody equpped to take advantage of amergig and better incom ning oppounitm outide agiu. -46- B. The Female-Headed Household Syndrome 5.4 Female-headed households (FHHs) are a widespread and increasing phenomenon in many A . . hw. pauts of Sub-Saharan Africa. It has always been aty teother 30 common in societies which practice polygamy and V* w , - p,t wia thew spousal separation of residences, or where divorce 1+:4 -tEUo ppn doci has been fairly easy and frequent. In some o the u:* w e: regions, where long-term or seasonal male * t.di Q dYwband o?by outmigration is particilarly prevalent,2 FHHs 8* account for SO percent and more of total rural households. This also means that an increasingly larger number of smallholder farms are managed by women. 5.5 The concept of the female-headed household is often misunderstood and/or misinterpreted. It is not a static concept, but a life-cycle issue. African women may move in and out of being household head several times in the course of their lives (due to marriage, divorce, husband's death, remarriage, husband's outmigration, husband's return). Female-headed households are not simply a marginal group - remnants of 'nuclear families" that have lost their male heads due to death, divorce or migration. They are a common and economically and socially important reality. The vast majority of women in Sub-Saharan Africa who reach adulthood are likely at one or more times throughout their adult lives to be heading a household that is without a resident adult male. This is a reality with far-reaching implications for development policy, but one that is rarely recognized. An important policy implication is, therefore, that all women must be reached with development assistance interventions - since they all are likely at some time(s) during their adult lives to be household heads when they will have to manage without the support of an adult male. 5.6 Female-headed households differ from male-headed households most importantly in that most of the former lack ready access to adult male labor. They are usually also underendowed in other important respects - notably in land, capital, farm equipment, and transport aids. Land farmed > Z a i 7 L may be far less than land allocated or controlled, a a due to the labor constraint and the lack of access to draft animals, farm machinery and hired labor. ' e Capital may or may not be a constraint, depending lMetsi b : on the incidence, amount and timing of remittances taeoa tP ; s.m ir t from absent husbands or other relatives.3 For s S < ^ - most female-headed households, access to most Ws t, public sector support services tends to be severely - 9 w limited. This is especially notable in the case of .y extension, credit and services delivered through formal cooperatives. 2 In Lesotho, about 60 percat of all male aged 20 to 44 are employed in South African mines (Plath et aL, 1987). 3 Men's ritanes ar often small, since they themselves arm poorly rmuneated, have to pay for their own food and lodgig, may have taken a second wife, or prefcr to retain their aving for major puchas of thdr own. Remittne tend to be used to purhase eAsentl food swuppL. Sometim tey ar usd to buy fecilize and hire labor. Only rarely are remitnce sufficiaet to permit invaesmet in labor-aving machiey or livestcck -47 - C. The Gender Division of Rural Labor and Farming Systems 5.7 Women are variously estimated to .-=_ provide between 50 and 80 percent of all @ . agricultural and agro-processing labor in most.- e s A -:: - .0 countries of Sub-Saharan Africa - prompting Ester = Boserup to write of Africa as "the region of female .0 .a... ..... .12:p farming par excellence" (Boserup, 1970). The : t. The 1# - n gender division of labor (in farm and non-farm s .1.6::o production, processing, marketing, household - - - = . maintenance, subsistence and survival activities, :- ,8): child rearing, etc.), its determinants, and changes over time are important for agricultural and poverty alleviation policies. This division of labor varies widely among cultures. It is also determined by characteristics of the household,' the individual, the farming system, the local natural resource base, the community, and the national ecoiomic and political system. Gender roles and responsibilities may undergo seasonal variations, due to farm production requirements, for example, or to seasonal male out-migration (Dixon-Mueller, 1985, pp. 119-123). Gender roles in farming systems also change over time, in response to cultural, technological, political, commercial, ecological, demographic and other factors. 5.8 Gender divisions of labor have . . . A . .. *... implications, for instance, as regards the promotion . . .... of various crops, subsidization of certain inputs, _ =: targeting of research and extension, pricing, land l i howed tenure policies, etc. Shifts in cropping patterns e_ ilore will have different effects on labor required by a O t - a; genders. Control over returns affects incentives to l iarJ - : work. Social norms need to be ascertained and considered to avoid mistakes. Three fifths of ati aa respondents to a survey in Botswana considered _ ( selling crops (but not cattle) a job for women only; w ($9 extension, credit, transport and marketing i0Z2t interventions for crops would therefore need to m . ... = 3 focus on women to make sense (Dixon-Mueller, a 1985). In the Eastern Uluguru Mountains of ....... Tanzania, male involvement in such activities as b A a_ ffiere _ fetching water and fuelwood or preparing meals is _ completely taboo (Mtoi, 1988, p. 349); efforts to .. . address the water and fuelwood problems in this region would therefore need to be directed at women. I oa iul-wd4iu oaod 5.9 The organization of farm labor and production responsibilities varies widely, but tends ($ ba to be highly gender-specific. In some regions, ..i. ....... men and women farm fields jointly, usually in a 4 Household saz; gender and ago composition; rsurce endowment; differeial gnder acor to resoure., servi., equipment, cred, information, employmet, mak, otc. - 48 - gender-sequential mode, but sometimes side by 1noWw W side. In other areas, a substantial portion of I:¢mpg t * : S ee ~agricultural activities is gender-segregated: uiovd . cuhcroj~p4.tr~~ ~ ~4tj(~~J women grow their own crops on separate plots tot ~mnocdty~owocn. W~haut.i*t~ but they are also required to work on the plots/crops owned/managed by their husbands. ~ a~ay~ woh~MwaIcu In much of Sub-Saharan Africa, men and =.. women farm separate fields and grow different ;'oi*iea a~ pi*ztani*, *~,. crops. Labor may be allocated by crop and/or ~.^ ....................by task - men performing certain tasks on SeD-f 5p21 ) women's fields and women certain others on '.':'uj: R ." "' men's fields. In some areas, men may work 45@yiai= jz- Xuid y~ w~ ~ ~pi~g .y~ten~ ," -fields communally with other men, or gender- based work parties carry out certain tasks for~naae~womn mt~,wed *~haat~itt4zi~~mt#jointly. Hired labor is important in some areas af i+s.dS,o« ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~vik.bc tuo 146W4do. . rjaxts' 'C* ' Iry4rofogy csebyrongddohtaby y ptemdmcntuto,ae asing incrasing saInit in' the bc&ma with sgificn egtive e. ct on pldcivity As teak f th e developms,ta the pressre an uplad ara f ncroasing fVori the enviro and the auanabiky of the t.aditional farming yarem,ws Women ate espang their iiolvesen ian the production of palm .sid wine, am increasing their vegetable oduction mnr sale s well _s their c nerNial fishind fhrocessng ativisO. Wants Brom wome i vi i t of cemis, o, pam oIL ad wine, a, Zd, ~4 nt i w w obwf 4g ifo salie andi produc cashew wine for th marke. Thy fish fo shrnw and nAl i d collemllc. Wtonldive inomefon treding and frm the sale of cashesw wie amoil: rcse ih egtbe a o, It is not wpa r wo t hen oaeior e . Hus hav l s t f the suviva of tamy ad t il the prod oet wafr the male fields x kept lfor ome use. Womena 'jrbur~gle, ths,, cmpletly throg thir lar on mal fds. woe a e fir income ialo Ow Oand the*r... patie, and topay for _ories (Afton, 1991).::, ....,. ',:'':'' '' - 52 - 5.14 Another example is the rapid deterioration of the natural resource base in parts of Zambia where cheemene farming is ; , . the traditionally predominant form of land use i i o and where adult male labor is increasingly a;3 scarce at the farm level. With mainly women, _.t. 1. old people and children as sources of labor, the - z" . - ; wo§Bn traditional practice of climbing trees and lopping branches for burning on chemene fields is being replaced by the felling of whole pm~s~setplle c w~t.Mn14 W trees. Ihis severely affects the regeneration e capability of the available and accessible a 5 t . resource base (Vedeld, 1983, pp. 98-99). Moreover, the long distances between village ~ ~ ~ . and fields and the rising pressure on women's time are forcing people to shorten drastically . the regeneration (fallow) period on their fields, 4 f 4 : :.:.: : cutting it from the traditional 25 years to as = little as ten years (Stolen, 1983, pp. 32-33).a 5.15 Since women more often lack the n .ntsfati lmetpodn. means to invest in agricultural intensification *.. . and soil conservation, farms managed by = i f women are likely to be particularly constrained .ntil*ofwe,o2aMl uodai. as regards possibilities for incre-asing otma MI fcs~Tetmo ~nhshle productivity and particularly susceptible to resource degr?iation. Where farm machinery twd is available to the household or family, it is not = necessarily available to the women; if it is, then rarely at the critical time. Since wo'nen cannot afford to take any risk with the family's food security, thoy proceed instead with the traditional tools available to them, depending on their children (and sometimes other women in their village or k:rship group) to provide the needed labor. 5.16 In most SSA farming systems, women also provide significant labor input on the men's fields. Polygamy allows men to command more labor (wives and children) and thereby extend farm size. Under most traditional tenure systems, land was/is assigned on the basis of ability to cultivate. Hence, more wives increase the capability to cultivate and the amount of land that can be controlled.8 As men expand their farming operations, their demands on women's labor (for planting, weeding, hatvesting, crop transporting and processing) increase. Project intervenDtions often exacerbate the problem. In a project in Cameroon, me& received land, water, seed and training to produce rice; women were expected to carry out their traditional tsks in the men's rice fields in addition to cultivating sorghum for family subsistence (Dankelman and Davidson, 1988, p. 13). A lough millet is prefemd in the dit in Zmbia, sas& has aneas pe it a the main stple bae mit prductior is consrid by h labor scamity. MAt is now usd mainl for brwving beer to genrate cah incone. Mos people'e nedaima now consis of abot 70 pesew caava meal and 30 pct millet meal; easava med is tionally considerably mes vaNablu than millet mda. Women often wecome sn addional wife, beaw th hband is nO ogea soley dependet on a inle wife and becuse * co-wifo faeilatm othier m ethds of copng wih muaval needs. - 53 - 1~~~~~~~~19 ''W-N '''~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~. ... .. ..- D. The Separation of Budgets 5. 17 In most societi-,, ufl Sub-Saharan Africa, men and women also mantain separte budgets, and there are inticate. but well established conventions conceming their respective sources of income and the responsibilities that are to be met from such income. Husbands and wives may sell to each other, even lend to each other at considerae interest rates. The support men are obiged to provide tO their wives (and children? varies considerably among different comuninides. So wdoes the importance of the immediae and extended family and of the household and compound as resource pools and as production and consumption units. 5.18 In most cases, women depend 777777:ii heavily on their own, independent (cash or 44t kind) incom e sources, from farming and non- - . farm activities, do meet their responsigbwlities. 11 w T his has crucial implications in terms of thee _ _ , incentives faced by men and by women with f ie respect to investing labo: and/or capital in o__ -d, specific farming activities or other ventures = (m oldingsol conservation a or fiewonl mdkot,btAeiptd owaiiWeadglam prnoduuctinon). 8ReseCa0rncshfroam0Ken0ya hfighligtds ithi 'in female-headed households, weeding male-headed households, yields increased by typical t W . R a e only 15 percent. ... where women controlled e nna ftie crop and lie icome from tha crop, they) did havhe ine ive to provide the necessaryf d lantr iaput foriaee b which resuted in c en t r s sig5ficant mcreases o yields' (Horenstein, -54 - :Es-::.: .:E ..>R.:'..z :........................ :: .: .'. ....... f.... : : . . , . =...-.:::., ,..; a .....~ ~~ .. ..... 1989 pe 13) Caese~ stuies abound documenting intra-famil coflctsovetealloc ation of± wmen's I labor beween ropds consideedwto be uder thei own contro asopoed p1Ww Ueto thosben wvundrthe ctr of utheir husbands.' , an*dhpoductivit le farming do not always trne anto wimp ovedelfare forn the wome _and fooden Menm often spendthmeir waddition~al iaitncome o further. inputs for their itoown productione 1985, . 125. With womllen responibole prakin tey ford flamly foom ±d and min.utefcetlmn lwind fact ofte readuce whl their otibto o ayandchd maitedmcecosts fo~d,ul cl.aodigaao. medica exeses,l sop,etc.) Maas womn' inoes itosae (Henn, 1988 mkaeo In the Bafr e io of Bukin Faso (as am ong the Muandinga inMdGambi eeandv Seneal), women spenfd a sig[iicanly hihe proporion ofthirinoeh onahfoold, meicine lo& thing and shoo l fees fo th eiro whm drn lImthand eni. Men spn eatively largwe~ amut for b'aicyces b poraddirh.tiona wies(Dy 1984a p. 6) study of to vifag es in alaw fond tehat tnhue nutritionul stodab, ofe wdomen oandcildren iny priularn wse beted r min thep sbasitne vjzagern thans 4Tine the vllg with significant ckash-ropns (toao)d producti eon.a Although oEr f.rs $migt - hav played wa rople, womfen's gr ea' labor input to ta.. p 8'':tion on men's weld cotibauted to lowert susaoistLenc fooad proedlucto fand avaMabdiy and reduced time iavaoal fopr o kiWng. Cashoeot inome. thneiraonWted fromtoacco prouciaonl whseniotd used nto purcanse more food to copestefor lowe subsisteu ndcen production (Engberg et at., d1988l pp. 99-100.m 5.2 oW herel fomen band womean haveoo cu~learl wefine ok mpemlu entary roashfo provlm.idt f14ar the4 1989ly p.e 13.mane oftudenhs nobiabiound doumkent. intra famny onfisctvs' ovrtespallocaltionofenwomen'she maborav betwmee crops considered tohesuner themslrs ownomntrlaposet thosrinepbengen undoer the 5.19age Givnthseatino farming systems anueyeeomnd budgects the benkefts fofmroved, thechaynology o'ften reuehir cotibt to fail and cildmintenance cot (foo,fuel clothEing , medca (asf amogn th.e MandingsBf.f.EgS aE inEE T e§::; Gam :;bi and Senegal) woEn spn a sinE:ani hihe proorio of9 thei in.Come onfod,mdiiesaone, louething andraschoolyfe forflithoeir childrenthan dof wmenen' spendrbeltively large amounsied for bicycles,beeir orn aditonarl wivs oppoeyd to p.os 64).nA sundyrth of.tw viaes n Mlw onhtthe nutrtonffr itina s stesatdudes, ofhwoeneft and cidroendi patichnlargwa bte inrhedubsseceivilln age thanningd nth vilwytrolage witsincnt cashprope (tobacopreoductieomn.an Alhoughn.Me othrfatorspn mgt haei payddatronle wnomeon' gurether lbrinputs tor tobaccow production ontvimens fild ontpributed tonsultower subsisnteuncoomprduton and availabilsutityiand reduedteimrae availabe foris cooking. Cadish indbcmles genreatqied fro tobcc prductio wase notusedoto pumbrs(.Chase, morten fooduc toei compensatefor lowe subsistedchlaitnnce prdcioosbr ts (foo, 1988, pp.hng 99e100). 5.2 Wher icoe men anod, wmenihave, clearlyg defned schompemntr roles for provdlrenthngd for. then ofaiy the milangoften hasaw nouobligatio tohae overitoa sanys of hswives' repnsibhiliteseen whe patheyarwa maythaer become subitnabe toifulfi thesei themseves.aIf women losithirindeendnt inhcop(oacome prdueton to5hage0 i faereming sytmanduoed baecery develpmntpoect co rplmenarkoet fors theyvmayngot bhe .55 - ...... ........ .. .N E~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~..... .. ..ni .1= ;. .ztbm.. sa ti ad ..., . ... b * '.. ' X.ivq',q'd~~~~~~~~~. . 'X ............ able to meet their customary obligations. This is not only smeful and distressing to them, reducing their social statas and respect, but the family, especially children, sffer: mitnutional levels fan, ceaoliness may be affeced (women spend a relatively large propoion of their money on soap), clothing may be less than adequate, and school attendance may well decline (Dey, 1984a). E. Farm Temuology and Gender 5.21 The separation of budgets also affects women's access to tecm logy. Women famers often are, or perceive, themselves to be, restricted to low tecology fianing because they cannot afford purchased inputs. Lack of collateral (e.g., of land tie) is only one part of the problem. Abflity - real or perceived - to service debt is the other. Risk aversion is often far stronger among women than men, po dy because a woman usualy bears prime, if not exclusive, responsibility for feeding and maintaining the chiWdren and herself. 5.22 Gender is an i nt aspect of the farm tecology problem (non-adoption, slow adoption, low utiizaton). Technology transfer is equently hindered when ines-household dynamics are not taken into account. In many cases, women will have to provide the labor or be involved in the decision as to whether to adopt the proposed new technology or not. Faure to understand these factors or to consider who receives the benefits and who bears the costs, who wie pay for follow-up - 56 - maintenance costs and investments, can be fatal to efforts at introducing new technology. In Ghana, women were reluctant to switch to a new hybrid maize variety because it had an unpleasant taste, was hard to prepare, was less resistant to insects and drought, required different storage methods, and needed fertilizers which affected its taste (Dankelman and Davidson, 1988, p. 18). 5.23 Few of the farm technology improvements developed and introduced to y Si w~ f3!~w an pwduo1&ooIM. hwu.4-iA . Awb ,a date have been geared to, or even cognizant ... . .' of, the needs and constraints of women. The bu* provision of mechanized equipment, new seed i s - a ppt p: u SQ:- varieties, fertilizers and herbicides has largely . i * w f mwbop .... been linked to the introduction or expansion of i; p t = i industrial/export crop production and has, thus, z S - mainly gone to men. Female farmers have : S : benefitted little. In many cases, women have - "Wi ih b or aa Wi in fact been left worse off. The introduction v>_ibI ba of animal-drawn ploughs may help men farm .$ . .. . more land and/or reduce the time needed for : ' ' land preparation - but it does not help the women who then have to plant, weed and harvest. In Sierra Leone, the introduction of tractors and ploughs eased men's work load in rice cultivation, but women's work load increased by 50 percent due to more weeding and harvesting (Dankelman and Davidson, 1988, p. 13). Women's time constraints and the low productivity of their labor are already critical constraints to production increases, both on their own and on their husbands' plots. Yet women have not, on any significant scale, gained access to technology which would increase their labor productivity. 5.24 The adoption of animal draft power in Sub-Saharan Africa is usually motivated by O the men's desire to reduce (male) labor - * T,e _ M _ ,b requirements and/or increase the acreage Sub.ui d,aii t al ig 9>dfo cultivated. A major multi-ountry study found pOm so .. - ( 1 aM that tde additional area tends to be used to 6. produce market crops (such as cotton, bq. r groundnuts and rice), while the area under N = subsistence crops usually remains unaffected Wo ;i by the introduction of animal draft power on WWi w t the farm (Pingali et al., 1987, p. 101). This t. - _C b n : finding confirms, of course, that farming v g intensification and investments in technological = i ' ; ' advances are associated with commercialization i: X i ;. tda and market access. It also confirms, however, g ba . the technological gap between male and female ah m fu s farming systems even within the same L huur&old. Men take up animal-powered ploughing and expand their cash crop acreage and production, while women remain stuck with hoe cultivation on their subsistence crop plots (and are often required to provide more labor on the men's fields as well). 5.25 Where farm machinery is available to the household or family, it is not necessarily available to the women - and if it is, then rarely at the critical time. In Senegal, 'farming equipment is used first in the fields of the household head, then on those of his younger brothers er sons, in 57 - order of priority based on age. Finally, the women have use of the machinery. Thus, : women who wait for the use of seeders and : =:. hoes are late in planting and weeding, significantly reducing their yields" (Loose, i~~~ aav tbg.dtdmkgtdoov 1979). Since women cannot afford to take any , t risk in providing for the family's food, they IA V2UI4#*i...I. w often prefer to proceed with the traditional . *. a technology available to them, even when the - d ::.t: household possesses improved technological .., ... ..W.u means. Ownership of improved equipment or b.Uof^..nd. . p.. ^?05. technology, thus, does not necessarily result in : p PJ t 0b any time saving for women or in productivity ; - ' improvement in women's farming activities. + : . ._ And, as noted above, improved technology and . a <. 5). productivity in male farming do not necessariy improve the welfare of women and children in the household. F. Women's Time Use and Productivity 5.26 It is axiomatic that overcoming agricultural stagnation and feod insecurity in Sub-Saharan Africa hinges on increasing the productivity of farm labor in general and in the production of foodcrops in particular. In many parts of Sub-Saharan Africa, where subsistence agriculture is largely a female task and/or where male outmigratibn has led to significant feminization of farming, this means that strong emphasis must be placed on increasing the labor productivity of women. And while this, in many ways, will require the same kind of measures that improve the productivity of male labor, it also requires far greater sensitivity in policy, program and project design to the different constraints and incentives faced by the genders in rural production systems. Very little will be achieved in increasing rural women's labor productivity without taking into account (a) the exact modalities of their involvement in agricultural and agro-processing work and (b) the severe limitations imposed on such work by other time-consuming child rearing, household management and other survival tasks. 5.27 Rural women work not only in farming. In much of Sub-Saharan Africa, they dominate many of the rural non-farm activities that grow most rapidly as rural economies undergo structural transformation - activities such as food processing and preparation, tailoring, trading and many services. They also hold major interest in many of the declining rural non-farm occupations - basket making, mat making, ceramics and weaving. Women will therefore be key actors in the economic transition of Africa's rural economy. To facilitate their contribution to an accelerated rural transformation requires that governments and donors explicitly recognize their key role (Haggblade et al., 1987). 5.28 Increased female productivity contributes to economic development. It helps increase aggregate productivity in the economy, reduces the incidence and the negative welfare outcomes of poverty, reduces fertility levels, and increases household demand for health and education services. Increasing the returns to female labor raises aggregate family income, but also women's control over that income and, hence, the share of total 'family income' spent on food, health care and other basic needs. Increasing female productivity also increases the opportunity cost of child bearing and thereby the incentives for families to invest in women's health and education. - 58 - 5.29 'The real url energy crisis iS women's time' (nInker, 1987). The single wTom a t V.-" most binding constrain to increasing female I ... T a o n ,,. DwWion a Own*l i0d0wed the aumtlr 4r OXW4 &WOe productivity in farming, and in other income "OVOw-I.O.. I the seed an tWood f. earning activities, may well be their lack of an-in dlmeat hwAutjA their diet. ChM time - or rather the inordinate amount of time d Thi led t4 a.. they must spend every day with onerous, time- 8 i . i consuming low-productivity task that are I 4 ~ ~ cbaaa h nr essent;al for family maintenance and survival. q fiw, d 1a in tht it Easing this constraint requires measures which NOWh s lo X mag s th th reduce women's domestic work burden. The mm C b V h0M0, t n dId. otW ict whn Xt- provision of water and woodfuel sources close sew A4 r p to the home would be an important first step. - ' Essential, too, is affordable and appropriate : " - , i timsaving tecnology which would reduce the x<< :X a ce drudgery of food processing and preparation, u* anm-tobeisoordi dora :- water collection, and fuel fetching and . Qah.u* (b 441 196. preparation. 5.30 To promote productivity gains for women farmers, a variety of measures are needed; many of these, particularly those conceming agricultural extension services, are already being implemented in a number of countries (para. 8.58). Far less has been done so far in other important areas to help improve the productivity of Africa's female farming systems. Researchers need to be far more cognizant of women's heavy involvement and snecial needs, objectives and constraints; important aspects in this context are species characteristics and processing requirements for new varieties. Women's rights to land and access to credit are two more areas in need of attention. 5.31 Improved agricultural tools and equipment are essential to improve the productivity of rural women. Many small 'appropriate technology" projects supported by voluntary agencies have successfully introduced simple yet effective devices that reauire litle maintenance and are cheap and easy to use. Equipment for milling, shelling, dehusking, initial conditioning and processing of crops and conservation of seeds offers many 3 w benefits in terms of raising productivity and IOt:i* allowing farm women to spend more time on X .t ..........n , .,.--,., , . - other tasks. Small carts, wheelbarrows and = _ r tt bicycles could substanially reduce the X 5 - . drudgery and time required to transport aenan. agricultural produce and inputs both on the and hey *1.,.etin farm and to markets. These innovations have - 4 i been largely neglected outside programs and = .B s. - - projects supported by NGOs. lhey deserve e m i far more emphasis in research and extsion *asctA ajj programs as well as in endeavors to promote ... . ......... 198.. local artisanal and small-scale industry.9 L 1973.) 9 A BnkKuppoMd tnhopt prqeat in Ghna is moving in this dir.on: it suppoit the local manufacture of bicycles, biqycle ail= an wheelba and, woking with loca NO0s, their acquisition by local women under a hire-puschm syata Hn lnkd with a labor-itese sd constuction andintanc and tree planting prugmam (World Bank, 1990c). - 59 - 5.32 Policies that alleviate women's capital and labor constraints are more likely to help increase food production than policies designed to attract men into food cropping (Henn, 1988). Steps taken in Zimbabwe, for example, to improve women's access to services and production incentives helped increase small farm output from 6 percent of the national total in 1982 to over 40 percent by the mid-1980s; one such step was to stop requiring husbands' signatures on wives' credit papers (Due, 1988). 5.33 Programs for promoting women's development encounter few ethical difficulties, but there is little evidence of rapid change in the role and status of women. Projects combining the provision of information and education about family planning with other activities directed at women's development have been successful; but most are small-scale efforts. A far more broad- based and sustained approach is needed. Women's education and technical training should be given priority. Women's organizations should be fostered. And women's non-farm and entrepreneurial skills should be upgraded in order to diversify the sources of family income. Vi. A FRAMEWORK FOR ACTION A. A Continental Perspective 6.1 Successfully addressing the problems discussed in the previous chapters will require simultaneous efforts in three areas: (i) significantly, and as quickly as possible, reducing the rate of population growth through efforts that bring down the TFR; (ii) changing farming systems and cultivation practices from extensive to intensive systems which incorporate adequate soil conservation and fertility management measures to ensure long-term sustainability; and (iii) improving natural resource management so as to ensure that the natural resource base and agro-ecological environment remain intact. Essential to the achievement of these objectives will be addressing the special problems faced by rural women and the emerging land tenure constraints. (I) Some Basic Targets 6.2 These closely interlinked objectives can be expressed in a basic set of quantitative aggregate targets for each SSA country regarding desirable and achievable population growth rates, food consumption, agricultural growth and environmental resource conservation (see Table VI.IL, pp. 68-69). Although they are, of necessity, only rough approximations, they illustrate the magnitude of the effort required - but also the payoff that wIll result if the challenge is successfully met. 6.3 To summarize, for Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole, agricultural production needs to grow at about 4 percent per annum during the period 1990-2020. This, given the present weight of agriculture in Sub-Saharan economies, is the rate required to achieve aggregate economic growth of at least the same rate. Daily per capita calorie intake should be increased from its present average level of about 2,027 to about 2,400 by the year 2010. The share of the population that is 'food insecure' should be reduced from the present 25 percent to zero as rapidly as possible. Unfortunately, scrutiny of the various country situations suggests that it is more realistic to aim for a target reduction ;o 10 percent by the year 2010 and to 5 percent by 2020. For environmental reasons, the rate of deforestation needs to be sharply reduced, from the present average annual rate of 0.6 percent of the total remaining forest area to about 0.35 percent per year. Loss of remaining wilderness areas should also be minimized: as an indication, approximately 23 percent of Sub-Saharan Africa's total land area should be maintained as wilderness (compared with about 27 percent today). To preserve wilderness and forest areas, cropped land can only be increased from 7.0 percent of Sub- Saharan Africa's total land area at present to about 8.3 percent in 2020. The arithmetic of these indicative agricultural, food security and environmental objectives requires population growth to decline steadily from the present average annual rate of over 3.1 percent to 2.3 percent per annum in the third decade of the next century. This will require lowering the average TFR by 50 percent between today and the year 2020. (11) Accelerating Agricultural Growth 6.4 The first requirement is to achieve sustained agricultural growth (more precisely, growth of agricultural value added) of 4 percent per annum.1 This would permit gradually improving food security and increasing rural incomes and foreign exchange eaniings and savings. Slower agricultural Tis is the minimum tbogt ad in dfi Wodd Bak's 1989 long4am pwrpeciv study for Sub-Saaran Africa (WoMd Banik, 1989d). -61 - growth would also compromise the minimum macro-ecenomic. growth targets for Sub-Saharan Africa. Case I in Table VI.I (p. 63) shows the staggering food import requirements if present population and agricultural growth trends were to continue. The food gap, even at the present low average per capita food consumption levels (about 202 kg/cap/year), would increase from 10 million tons maize equivalent at present to 24 million tons by the year 2000 and to 80 million tons twenty years later. 6.5 Without a reduction in aggregate population growth rates, even sustained food production gains of 4 percent annually would only represent an increase on a per capita basis of less than 1 percent per annum. Even with unchanged average consumption per capita, and with interregional food trade completely liberalized to allow intra-African food movement from surplus to deficit countries, aggregate food import requirements would therefore decline only slowly and would be eliminated entirely only in the year 2004 (Fable VI.I, Case 11). 6.6 Even in this scenario, average per capita availability of food would not increase. There would, thus, (in the absence of distributional changes) be no change in the percentage of those malnourished and facing food insecurity, but a substantial annual increase in their absolute number. More than one quarter of Sub-Saharan Africa's population were faced with food insecurity in 1980/81 (Fable 10), and the available aggregate statistics suggest a possible deterioration in this situation during the past decade. A scenario of unchanged average per capita food availability would imply, therefore, that over a quarter of all people in Sub-Saharan Africa would still be facing food insecurity 30 years from now. 6.7 Ihe importance of making rapid progress in reducing population growth becomes even more apparent, therefore, when the closely related objectives of improving nutritional standards and food security are taken into consideration. Average daily calorie intake should be increased from its present very low level of 2,027 calories per person to about 2,200 by the end of the century and to 2,400 (i.e., the current average for the world's low-income countries) by the year 2,010. This would imply raising per capita food availability from an average of 202 kg/year to about 232 kg/year over a 20-year period. Table VI.I, Case V, depicts this scenario. Since aggregate food consumption requirements would rise sharply, even sustained growth in food production averaging 4 percent per year and a steady decline in the rate of population growth to 2.3 percent per annum during the decade 2020-2030 (implying a continuous reduction, beginning immediately, of the TFR over the next four decades to half its present level), the food gap would remain at roughly its present level of about 10 million tons per annum until 2010 and would not be closed until about the year 2015. The potential food surplus which might gradually emerge thereafter under the assumption of static average calorie intake would presumably not materiaize because consumption levels would increase above the 2,400 cal/cap/day level that typifies present average conditions in the developing world. 6.8 It is clear, then, that - even with 4 percent annual growth in food production - the important objective of bringing the percentage of the population subject to food insecurity down to zero over the next three decades ca-not be achieved, at the aggregate level, unless fertility rates are reduced by 50 percent and the population growth rate is thereby lowered to about 2.3 percent per annum by the year 2025. In addition, this objective will not be attained unless the growth in agriculture is equitably distributed over the population, benefiting urban dwellers as well. 6.9 The technological change required to realize the agricultural growth target of 4 percent per annum will need to be land-saving for environmental reasons and labor-using in order to absorb the growing rural population. With capital also scarce, the technological change being promoted must be carefully matched to farmers" capacity to finance investments. Incremental capital use will not be inconsistent with the objective of environmental sustainability. The present labor scarcity in much - 62 - Are Annual Cereal Yield Increa of 3S Percent Achievable? The dtatisical analysi of the detmiants of ceeal yilds, summaized in the box on pp. 4546, can be used to teat tho plausibility of thes projecdons. According to the equation given the, increoad bor us per ha, facilitad by the growth in the nral labor force of 2.0 percet per year, wouM load to 0.7 pet annual rowth in ceral yield.. Anwual ras of incrase in ferilizer us of 15 porcent (and incras in the us of other modem input asociaWtd with increased fertilizer consumption) would generste ceeal yied inacs of 1.5 pent per anmnw. An annual inore of 2 poeet in primary chool enrollments would lead to anul ices in cereal yield. of 0.3 peret. And an ond to defortation (if not an actual increase in forested area) would at last eiminate this cau of declining crop yields. Togedher, this would give a total growth rate of creal yiolds equal to 2.5 parcn per year. Other factors - such as mDre counries adopting appropriate agricultural policy and coniually improving policies in all countries, a steadily expanding reach of nual trapont infrattue, improvent in marketing anangems, etc. - would have to provide the additional stimulus needed to achieve tho postuated 3.5 pernt growth rate. This is a difficult, but not impossible challenge to meet. of Sub-Saharan Africa at the farm and household level, one of the driving forces behind the high fertility rates, will ease over time with population growth - rural-urban migration notwithstanding. More labor per unit of land will lead to intensification. But intensification also requires making labor more efficient by adding capital. Part of this wiUl have to be private capital, for fertilizers, animal traction, better tools, and investments in land amelioration and conservation. Much of it, however, will need to be public capital for rural roads and markets, water supply, investment in education, etc. * To minimize the need for bringing more land under cultivation, the productivity of land will have to increase very rapidly. Allowing for a continuing expansion in total cultivated area at a rate of about 0.5 percent per year (f.om about 150 million ha in 1987 to about 180 million ha in 2020),2 land productivity wiUl have to increase by 3.5 percent annually over the next 30 years. Realizing this will be an enormous challenge (see box). * Were the rural labor force to continue to increase at an annual average rate of about 2.5 percent, meeting the target of 4 percent annual growth in agricultural production would require that labor productivity in agriculture increase by at least 1.6 percent annually. Indeed, since those entering the rural labor force in the coming 15 years have already been born, the decline in fertility rates included in this set of indicative targets will only have a significant impact on the growth of the rural labor force in the outer years of the time horizon used here. If the targets are achieved for a continuous reduction in the average TFR to 50 percent of its current level by the year 2030 and, hence, for an average rate of population growth of 2.8 percent between 1990 and 2030, and if the urban population were to increase at an average annual rate of 4.5 percent due to continuing rural-urban migration, the average annual growth of the agricultural labor force is more likely to be around 2 percent for the period as a whole (higher in the first two decades, substantially lower thereafter). Labor productivity would therefore need to increase steadily over time so as to average about 2 percent per annum. Given the very high proportion of female labor in the total for the agricultural sector, and given the low current productivity of female labor in farming, an appropriate emphasis on improving the productivity of female labor will pay significant dividends in this regard. 2 Clearly, the expansion of t land fronti coannot be hled immediately; in any cae, in som counties there ati are sizemble ucts of ptntialy pductive crop land ts yet unilizod - due prtly to technological constint at t fiam levl (e.g., heavy botom soils that rquir ploughing and possibly drainage), partly to difficult accs (lack of roads). - 63 - Table VI.l Sub-Sabaran Africa: Population and Food Security, 1990-2020 Scenarios 1990 2000 2010 2020 Case I Population (millions with total 494 664 892 1200 fertility rate remaining at projected levels) a/ Food production (million tons of 90 110 134 163 maize equivalent at current trend growth rate of 2 percent a year) Food consumption (million tons 100 134 181 243 with unchanged average per capita consumption) b/ Food gap (million tons) c/ 10 24 47 80 Case 11 Population (millions as in 494 664 892 1200 Case I) a/ Food production (million tons at 4 90 133 197 292 percent annual growth) Food requirement (million tons as in 100 134 181 243 case I) b/ Food gap (million tons) 10 1 -16 -49 Case III Population (millions, with total feritlity 494 657 875 1169 rate declining by 50 percent by 2030) d/ Food production (million tons at 90 110 134 163 2 percent annual growth) Food requirement (million 100 133 177 237 tons) _/ Food gap (million tons) 10 23 43 74 Case IV Population (millions, with total fertility 494 657 875 1169 rate declining by 50 percent by 2030) 4 Food production (million tons at 90 133 197 292 4 percent annual growth) Food requirement (million 100 133 177 237 tons) b/ Food gap (million tons) g/ 10 0 -20 -55 Case V Populaton (with total fetliy 494 657 875 1169 rate declining by 50 percent by 2030) Food production (million tons at 90 133 197 292 4 percent annual growth) Food requirement (million tons, with 100 144 210 280 rising per capita consumption) I/ Food gap (million tons) 10 11 13 -12 a. Population g8wth t 3.0 percent per annum, as per Table z. b. Average of 2027 calosies per person per day. c. Equaa consumption requirement winus production; negative sign denotes production uplus. This equaled the cereal import plus food aid in 1990. d. Target. e. Average per capita consmption ring to 2,200 calories per day by 2000 to 2,400 calories per day by 2010 and stabilizing at that level thamfer. -64 - What Will It Take to Armst Deforestatgon? Tho sdaatitc analysis (see t boxes on pp. 4548) suggest that a reduction in the area cultivated per psnon at the projeted rate of 2 percent per year will sdmulate fuiter deforeastion at a ratz of 1.2 percet of the re_mining fores ars per aamun. Amaul popuation growth of 2.8 pen wll load to deforesion at a rate of 1.5 peran.t per year. On the othr hand, an inoreas in the intensity of fertilizer use of IS pret per year will lead to a reduction in the rte of defortation of 2.9 percent yeady. Tho aggrogato offet would be an increaso at a met. of 0.2 paent per year in lnd under treea. However, a policy envionment conducive to agriculud growth will simwlato frmes to oxpand cultivation into areas curmnty forested. The effoit to preservo oxiosng fore and expand the area under trees will be lost, rfore, unless environmental action plans and land use plans are preared and implemented which channel the expansion of farming away fom forsts and from areas that are to be reforested. Th indicativ, targets shown in Table Vl. imply, more realistically, continuod reductions in the foret and woodland areas, but at much slower rates than those recoded at present. 6.10 In the longer run, as the scope for policy improvement narrows, and with increasingly more stringent constraints on the possibilities for firther expansion of cropped area, sustaining an agricultural growth rate of 4 percent per year will become even more difficult. It will depend increasingly on intensification through gr . ter use of modem inputs and equipment, diversification into higher-value crops, genetic improvements in crops and livestock, and general improvements in educational attainment of the population. Hence the importance of the improved agricultural research, extension, and of general education discussed in subsequent chapters. Ott) Managing Forest Resources 6.11 The growing population of Sub-Saharan Africa will need more fuelwood, building materials and other wood and non-wood forest products. Woodfuel demand will increase roughly at the rate of population growth.3 Demand for other wood products should probably increase more rapidly, to allow development of forest-based industries, especially rural industries. Although the implications of such rising demand on forest area requirements are very difficult to quantify for Sub- Saharan Africa as a whole, orders of magnitude can be delineated here. 6.12 In 1984-86, an estimated 370 million m3 of fuelwood and charcoal were extracted, much of it in a manner destructive to the forest resources, from Sub-Saharan Africa's forests and woodlands (World Bank, 1989d). Ibis implies an average per capita consumption of about 0.87 m3 per year and is consistent with the average per capita consumption estimates of about 0.5 n3 per year in urban areas and about 1 m3 per year in rural areas. With about 100 million urban and 322 million rural dwellers in 1985, aggregate consumption, using these average parameters, would have been on the order of 372 mi1lion m3. 6.13 With aggregate population growth declining over the next four decades to a rate of 2.3 percent per annum (and, thus, averaging, about 2.8 percent per year over this period), Sub-Saharan Africa's total population in 2020 would be on the order of 1,169 million (Table 4). If urban population growth were to average 4.5 percent per amum (considerably less than in the last three decades), the urban population in 2020 would total about 485 million (up from about 130 million at present).' The rural population would rise to about 685 million by 2020, implying an average rate 3 Efficiency gaiu in aw cnvenion/use and some interfiebd subiuio in urban a will somwhat dampen the te of demand growth, but meetng curntly unmet demand i fudwood.deficit regions would have the opposte effect. Successfully add ing the probleu diucud her would help reduce the ra of runruban migtn. -65 - of increase of a little over 2.1 percent per year. Preperly managed fuelwood plantations may sustain yields, on average, of 4 m3 annually per ha in the savanna zones and about 10 m31halyear in the forest zones. It may be assumed that the urban population in 2020 will be about evenly distributed between these two main climatic zones. With average fuelwood requirements for urban dwellers amounting to 0.5 m3 per person per year (in view of gradually increasing interfuel substitution and improvements in fuel utilization efficiency), 30.3 million ha of fuelwood plantations would be needed in the savanna zones in 2020 and a further 12.1 million ha in the forest zones to meet urban woodfuel requirements entirely from managed plantations. Assuming a lag of ten years from planting to harvesting, these plantations would need to be established within the next two decades; this implies an annual rate of plantation establishment of more than 2.1 million ha every year, beginning immediately.' Thereafter, further expansion in plantation acreage would need to match further growth in requirements (minus efficiency gains)." 6.14 Of course, much of the woodfuel for urban markets can and should come from managed forests, rather than plantations. Forests managed for sustainable woodfuel production could yield, say, an average of 1 i/ha/yez in the Sahe;an and Sudanian savanna, about 2 m/ha/year in the Guinea savanna areas and an average of 4 m3/ha/year in the forest zone. Using an average sustainable yield estimate of 1.5 m3/ha/year for forests in the savanna zones, 81 million ha of well managed forests in the savanna zones and 30 million ha in the forest zones could, theoretically, meet the woodfuel needs of the urban population in 2020. This would imply that about one fifth of Sub- Saharan Africa's entire remaining forest area would need to brought under effective management regimes with the aim of p;oviding an adequate flow of woodfuels for the urtan population on a sustainable basis. Since almost half of the remaining forest area is concentrated in a few countries in the central African forest zone (ZaTre, Gabon, Congo, Central African Republic, Cameroon) and on Madagascar, the proposition of meeting urban needs from managed forests in the other countries means, in fact, that a far greater proportion of the forest areas still remaining in these countries will need to be managed in a manner that would ensure sustainable woodfuel supply over the leng run. This winl be increasingly the case as forests and woodlands are converted to farmland and other uses. 6.15 Rural populations would need to meet their woodfuel needs increasingly through agro- forestry activities. Rural requirements may average about 1.0 m3 per person annually. If a ten-year old tree yields, at felling, 0.2 i', this would indicate a need for 5 trees per person per year - or 50 trees per person in a ten-year planting and harvesting cycle. For a ten-member household, about 500 trees would be needed - around the compound, on field boundaries, in windbreaks, in alley-cropping systems, and in viliage groves and woodlots. 6.16 Clearly, these numbers can merely provide a rough indication of the orders of magnitude involved in satisfying woodfuel needs. As discussed earlier, the varicus dimensions of the fuelwood issue are highly location- and region-specific and require, thus, careful attention at the national, regional and local levels. Nevertheless, on balance, it is critical to bring about an immediate and drastic reduction in the rate of deforestation and to expand the area of productive managed forests, forest plantations and tree farming to meet the vast needs for woodfuels and other wood products. An attempt has been made to determine realistic targets for the major regions of Sub-Saharan Africa s To tbe extt that trnarpot faciliwi can be improved nd th swich from fuelwood to charoal and bnquelts cam be ccelered, mor prductve plantions in foret zo e uld meet om of thc needs of urban populations n seava=im zones, thereby rducing th oveall mreage nede for fwod producion. * MaMy degraded and auently unproductivo woodland areas could be rforsted; hen", not a this acego requid for fuelwood puction wuld nd to be in additin to cent foet nd woodlad ares. - 66 - for the area under trees. These are shown in Table VI.II. They reflect projected wood requirements, plantation and tree farming possibilities, and projections of required and feasible expansion in cropped area. Realism suggest that deforestation cannot be stopped entirely. But it should be possible to lower the overall rate of deforestation from the present 0.6 percent per year to 0.35 percent per annum. This means that the average annual rate of cropland expansion would have to be reduced from the present 0.7 percent to about 0.5 percent. These are realistic targets. But achieving them requires that forests used for wood production be managed efficiently, so that wood harvesting would suffice to meet the needs of populations growing at 2.8 percent per annum and also satisfy essential environmental objectives linked to the environmental service functions performed by trees and fore.ts. 6.17 The challenge posed by these targets is enormous - requiring, as it does, a complete and rapid reversal of past trends rather than merely an intensification of ongoing efforts to accelerate along a growth path already attained. As indicated in the pre:eding chapters, the destruction of forest resources is the reldt of a variety of interlinked factors and forces. Achieving the target postulated here will be even . ,ore difficult than attaining that for agricultural production growth. (iv) Conserving Wilderness Areas fi.l8 To preserve biodiversity and the economic and social value of non-forest wilderness areas, these areas should not be allowed to decline very much from their present extent of about 27 percent of Sub-Saharan Africa's total land area. A reasonable target was derived by projecting forward the present rate of wilderness conversion to urban and infrastructure development and the postulated maxhmium expansion of cropped land (which also comes out of wilderness areas). This means that wilderness area would decline to about 23 percent of SSA's total land area (this compares with 39 percent f the world's land area currently classified as wilderness areas). This would allow a continuing modest expansion of cropland at an average annual rate of 0.5 percent over the next three decades and an expansion of urban land at about 7.9 p_rcent per year as per current trends. 6.19 Achieving this objective of wilderness conservation will be as difficult as achieving that for reducing the rate of deforestation - and for the same reasons. One difference, however, is that education appears to be successful in creating heightened awareness of the value of wilderness areas. Improvements in the coverage and efficacy of basic education are therefore likely to help, as are agricultural intensification and reduced population growth. On the other hand, a policy environment conducive to agricultural development and growth will provide strong stimuli to farmers to encroach on wilderness areas in order to expand the area under cultivation (the effect is far stronger than in the case of deforestat-na, presumably because of the far greater ease of converting non-forested land to farming). This underscores the importance of: (a) land use plans and environmental action plans and of their effwtive implementation to prevent such a development, (b) effective policies and infrastructure development to channel cropland expansion into less sensitive areas, and (c) the urgent 'eed to ensure widespread farmer access to markers and to yield-increasing farm technology. (i Swmmary 6.20 There are, of course, considerable country variations in what is necessary and attainable, and the above indicative overall targets have been adjusted to each country's circumstances and potential in Table VI.II (pp. 68-69). Nevertheless, these targets are extremely ambidous. They indicate the magnitude of the problens faced and the efforts required. The elements of an appropriate action plan outlined in the following chapters are, therefore, similarly ambidous. Reaching these targets will be possible only by focusing on the synergetic effects inherent in the linkages and cauality chains of the population-agriculture-enviromnent nexus. With rising agricultiral -67- productivity and outputs and growing incomes, population growth rates are likely to decline more rapidly. With agricultural intensification and decelerating population growth, environmental protection and resource conservation become more feasible. And preserving environmental integrity makes it easier to achieve sustainable agricultural growth. 6.21 If the objectives set out in the preceding paragraphs are successfully attained, the vision of the future of Sub-Saharan Africa would be one with a more slowly growing population, and with the rural population increasing more slowly than the urban population. Significant gains in both land and labor productivity would permit the population to feed itself and to increase incomes, without exparding the area farmed beyond what is environmentally sustainable and without depleting the natural resource base. This would be accornplished by the widespread adoption of locally appropriate sustainable agricultural technology and resource management practices, increased land tenure security, and special efforts to improve rural women's productivity and ease their time constraints. Reducing the rate of forest loss and preserving a substantial part of Sub-Saharan Africa's wilderness areas would permit preservation of biodiversity and wildlife and ensure the lifestyles and survival of indigenous forest peoples. It would also ensure an adequate supply of fuelwood and wood for construction and local industry and of other forest products for consumption and income-generation purposes. These v^rious interventions would have a positive synergistic effect - as the negative effects of the present situation are synergistically related. Improved agricultural incomes (especially in conjuLxion with impr' )d education and health caue) would further induce declining family size, in turn reducitg the pressure on the environment and allowing for some environmental regeneration. This in turn should have a positive impact on agriculture. 6.22 Realizing this vision will be enormously difficult, requiring radical changes in governmental policy and a strong commitment to assisting Sub-Saharan Africa on the part of international community. African governments, external aid agencies, and African and international NGOs will all need to pursue this goal. Most important will be the effort of millions of Africans acting, individually and collaboratively, in their own FAf-interest. The major elements of an action program are described in The following chapters. B. Some Country-Specific Targets and Implcations 6.23 Aggregate targets for Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole obviously are of limited operational relevance for individual countries. But they provide a useful and compelling framework within which appropriate objectives and targets will need to be set at the country level. Policy and public investment decisions are made at the country level. Table VI.II summarizes the present situation and sets out some internally consistent targets for each SSA country with respect to agricultural growth, calorie supply, food insecurity, population growth, deforestation, percentage of land under cultivation, and percentage of land remaining as wilderness areas. There are some trade-offs between growth of agriculture and environmental protection - but these are far outweighed by substantial and positive complementarity. Nevertheless, the trade-offs require that choices be made - and these cr. be made only by the people in the countries themselves. The targets in the table are therefore also indicative of the trade-offs. 6.24 There will be wide differences in the degree of difficulty various countries will experience in meeting the objectives. Some countries are already on course to meet some of the critical targets, but will need to do better in other respects. Others are faced with the necessity of drastic action in all areas concerned to attain a development path that suggests any likelihood of success in reaching the targets postulated here. Still others are likely to face virtually insurmountable obstacles in certain respects, and solutions that go beyond national boundaries will need to be seriously considered. - 68 - Table VI. 11. Sub-Sabara. Africa: Tareets for Food Consumption. A&ulture. Population and the Rural Eavironment A---al agricultural Amsul Daib PoguaZi D efr Wl_dens prducto populiol per capita food nu$ per Total od a to rowth siam growth eamm esofs l A yes tundea cp ttl ae (0-) (-M camenti (-V (f-0 (- P-* Toga Tageta Mu. MiL 1990- Tage 1918- Taget 1980- Targt 1990- ta targa CoeY 19B0-90 2020 1980-90 2020-30' 89 2010 el 2020 1980. 2020 1987 2020 Pm 2020 SubSaharan Aica 2.1 4.0 3.1 2.3 2,027 2.400 25 5 40.6 4.35 7.0 8.3 27 23 Sahdlan counries Buwkin Fao 3 3 4.0 2.6 2.4 2.002 2.400 32 5 -1.7 40.6 11 22 3 3 Cbad 2.7 3.0 2.4 2.2 1.821 2.200 54 10 4.6 -0.6 3 6 52 44 Mali 2.3 3.0 2.4 2.7 2.114 2.300 S5 10 40.5 40.5 2 4 49 42 Mauriania 0.7 3.0 2.6 2.8 2.465 2.400 25 10 .2.4 40.6 0 1 74 63 Nita N.A 3.0 3.5 3.1 2.321 2,450 28 5 *2.6 4.7 3 6 53 45 Coal Wett Afics DeAnl 3.6 4.0 3.2 1.9 2.115 2,400 IS 0 .1.7 4.3 17 20 15 13 Cae Vede M.A 3.0 2.4 I.8 250 2,B00 NA 0 N.A 4.3 10 12 0 0 Coa d'lvoig 1.0 4.0 4.0 2.6 2.405 2.700 8 0 .5.2 4.3 11 13 10 9 isa 7.1 4.5 3.3 2.4 2,339 2.700 19 0 *2.4 4.3 17 20 0 0 Gba 1.0 4.3 3.4 1.9 2.167 2.400 36 0 .0.8 4.3 12 14 0 0 Guie M.A 4.5 2.4 2.4 2.00 2.400 NA 0 4.8 .0.3 6 7 0 0 GuBiksl_uaU 5.7 4.5 1.9 1.9 2.437 2.400 NA 0 .2.7 4.3 12 14 0 0 Libia M.A 4.0 3.2 1.9 2,344 2.500 30 0 *2.3 4.3 4 5 17 14 Niedis 3.3 4.0 3.3 2.1 2.033 2.400 17 0 -2.7 4.3 34 40 2 2 Senegal 3.1 4.0 3.0 2.5 2.162 2.S00 21 0 4.5 4.3 27 32 11 9 Sbnal.oona 2.6 4.0 2.4 2.4 1.813 2.400 23 0 4.3 4.3 25 30 0 0 Togo 5.7 4.0 3.5 2.1 2.110 2.400 29 0 4.i 4.3 26 30 0 0 Caudal Ahicas fore zone Angols N.A 4.0 2.5 2.5 1.742 2,400 NA 0 4.2 4.3 3 4 26 22 Cenaoon 1.6 4.0 3.2 2.4 2.142 2.400 9 0 4.4 4.3 Is is 3 3 CesU Afican Rep. 2.2 4.0 2.7 1.8 1.965 2.400 39 0 4.2 4.3 3 4 39 33 Congo 3.6 4.0 3.5 2.7 7 $19 2.700 27 0 4.1 4.3 2 3 42 36 Equ atoa nes N.A 4.0 1.9 1.7 .. 2,400 NA 0 4.2 4.3 8 9 0 0 Gsbel N.A 4.0 3.9 2.4 2.3ss 2.600 0 0 4.1 4.3 2 3 35 30 zair 2.5 4.0 3.1 2.c 2.019 2.400 42 0 4.2 4.3 3 4 6 5 Nothetm Sudanla Djaui NA 3.0 3.3 2.1 .. 2.400 0 0 N.A 4.6 NA NA 0 0 EMiapia 0.0 4.0 2.9 3.0 1.684 2.200 46 10 4.3 4.6 13 26 22 19 So.sia 3.3 3.0 3.0 2.5 1,781 2.400 50 20 4.1 4.6 1 2 24 20 suda 2.7 4.0 3.1 1.8 1,981 2.400 1s 0 .1.1 4.6 5 10 40 34 FAA AMesm esowAnu and kmnpazd* zones Bufudi 3.1 4.0 2.8 2.7 2.320 2,400 26 5 .2.7 4.2 52 52 0 0 EMS 3.3 4.0 3.8 2.4 2.016 2.400 37 5 -1.7 4.2 4 s 25 21 Loo *0.7 S.0 2.7 1.5 2.275 2,500 NA 0 N.A 4.2 11 12 80 68 Mader- 2.4 4.0 2.8 2.9 2,174 2.500 is 0 *1.2 4.2 5 6 2 2 Makeil 2.0 4.0 3.4 2.9 2,057 2.4C0 24 5 -3.5 4.2 25 28 20 9 awan -.1.5 3.0 3.3 3.2 1.817 2.300 24 10 .2.3 -0.2 45 4S 0 0 Swa5ind 3.9 4.0 3.3 2.0 2.554 2.600 0 0 0.0 4.2 10 II 0 0 TXAla 4.1 4.0 3.S 2.9 2.186 2.400 Ss 0 4.3 4.2 6 7 :0 9 UgPOla 2.5 4.5 3.2 2.7 2.034 2.400 46 0 4.8 4.2 34 3s 4 3 ;abirA 3.2 4.5 3.9 2.5 2e028 2.400 48 0 4.2 4.2 7 8 24 20 Z.obwu 2.4 4.5 3.7 1.4 2.193 2.400 NA 0 -0.4 4.2 7 8 0 0 OLe BoeAh FAA Boiwm .4.0 3.0 3.4 1.4 2.251 2.400 NA S 4.1 4.3 2 3 63 54 Caom. N.A 3.0 3.5 2.3 2.0e9 2.300 NA 5 .3.1 4.3 44 44 N. NA asaris 2.6 4.0 1.0 0.6 2.690 2.900 9 0 *3.3 4.3 58 58 NA NA MoA*blqu 1.3 4.0 2.7 2.3 1.604 2.200 49 5 4.8 4.3 4 5 9 8 a. Dbed parewtaho donotInoi.adequasfoodall te lm. b. A ata Iber a_ efoatioaspepat of tota foretd aepa year. c. Avasuca cm for 202030 if s targt of reducing the total faWiy Me to i0 osea of timir cint lsuels Is aci-ved by 2030. table 4. -69 - Methodology used to develop these targets and projections 1. The target agricultural growth rates reflect what is necessary in the long term to contribute to the minimum 4 percent p.a. economic growth rate established in the World Bank's: Sub-Saharan Africa. from Crisis to Sustainable Growth. 1989. The targets require good agricultural policy and investrnent of the type descnbed in the text, and are significantly, above projections. Present agricultural growth rates are shown in appendix Table 9. 2. The target population growth rates were established as discussed in appendix Table 4. They reflect the projected outcome in each country of the achievement of a reduction in the total fertlity rate by almost 50 percent by 2030. Present growth rates: Table 2. 3. Minimum target calorie consumption was initially set for all countries to equal the present average in all the world's low- income countries; it was then adjusted upwards for those countrio.s that already have comparatively high average levels of per capita calorie consumption and downwards for those with currently very low levels. Present levels of intake: Table 10. 4. The target percentage of the food-insecure population is based on a subjective judgment about the possibility of reducing food insecurity in each country given the present numbers involved, the target agricultural growth rate, and the available new land for cultivation. Present percentage: Table 10. S. Reduction in deforestation is related to the tree cover to supply projected wood needs of populations growing on average at 2.8% p.a, with improved management, and also satisfying essential environmental objectives, while allowing for continued expansion of cropland (See paras 6.10-6.13). The source for these estimates is Mr. P. Wencelius, World Bank, Africa Technical Department, March 1992. Realistic targuts, accommodating a minimum expansion in cropland, were set for each sub-region rather than each country. The results in millions of hectares of forest are as follows: Year 19O 2020 (millions ha.} Sudano Sahel 90.0 75.4 Humid West Africa 43.0 38.6 Central Africa 215.0 192.4 East Africa 46.0 42.8 Southern Africa 206.0 189.2 Total 600.0 538.4 6. The target percentage of land undei crops was determined on the basis of available wilderness, forest, and otl.ir uncultivated land for cultivation, given the constraint imposed by the need to reduce deforestation to the target rate for each country. For Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole, the target deforestation rate is 0.35% p.a. This amounts to a reduction of forested area by about 2.3 m.ha per year compared to the present 3.7 million p.a. But only about 30% of the land taken out of forests are cultivated, allowing about 650,000 ha. p.a. in expansion of cultivated area. This is equivalent to a 0.5% p.a. expansion in cultivated area for SSA as a whole. This would result in about 8.3 % of SSA's land area put under crops by the year 2020. The amount of change would vary by sub-region since the rate of deforestation varies by sub-region; hence a similar calculation was undertaken for each country. 7. The minimum target wildemess area to be retained was arrived at as that remaining after taking out the postulated maximum increase in cropped land (1.3 percent expansion in total area by year 2020), and loss on account of urbe. , industrial and infrastructure development at its present rate of 5.8% increase every 22 years (table 16). The result is that wilderness loses 2.8% of total land to urban, and 1.3% to crops, hence declining b) 41% of total land area, or average. A similar calculation was undertaken for each country. - 70 - 6.25 Mauritius, for example, has already achieved the targets for population growth, calorie intake, and the percentage of its population facing food insecurity. It also has achieved modest agricultural growth, averaging about 2.6 percent per annum during the 1980s. At present, the rate of deforestation is high (3.3 percent p.a.), and the objective should be to reduce the rate of deforestation to about 0.3 percent per year. Crop land cannot be expanded on ihis island nation. This underscores the necessity for substantial effort at further agricultural intensification and/or economic diversification to meet rising needs for food and other agricultural products through international trade. 6.26 Ethioia is at the other extreme. Adverse climatic conditions and prolonged civil strife have had a severe impact. Agricultural production has stagnated during the past decade, average daily food intake is a meager 1,684 calories per person, 46 percent of the population are food insecure, and forests are disappearing at a rate of 0.3 percent annually. At 2.9 percent per year, population growth is somewhat below the SSA average - not so much because of declining fertility, but because of the high child mortality and overall death rates. The targets set out here for Ethiopia are more modest than those for most other countries, simply because of its critical situation. The area under cultivation will need to increase from 13 percent to 26 percent of the total land area by 2020 to meet the target of 4 percent annual growth in agriculture. Deforestation cannot be halted with this expansion of cropped land, but is in fact likely to accelerate, given the difficulty of intensifying agriculture in a dry environment. 6.27 Uganda provides yet another picture. Its agricultural performance has been poor, owing largely to civil strife, with some impressive improvements in recent years. Agricultural growth averaged 2.5 percent annually during the 1980s. Population growth has been rapid (3.2 percent per annum). Most of the arable land is already under cultivation (34 percent), and there is little wilderness area left (4 percent of total land). The rate of deforestation has averaged about 0.8 percent per annum recently. Uganda has enormous agricultural potential: its agricultural sector could grow at a sustained rate of 4.5 percent annually. If population growth can be reduced to 2.7 percent per annum by the year 2020, average daily calorie intake per person could rise from 2,034 to 2,400, and the number of people facing food insecurity could be brought down dramatically. This would have to occur mostly through intensification on currently cropped land, because there is little additional land left to cultivate. AIDS already is a more serious problem in Uganda than in many other African countries; this suggests that efforts to improve the reach and effectiveness of health care and family planning services are critical. 6.28 A number of countries are facing scenarios of extreme difficulties and constraints: Rwanda, Burundi, the Sahelian countries, Kenya and Malawi. The case of Rwanda is particularly dramatic. Agricultural performance has been poor, with production declining at an aveiage rate of 1.5 percent per year in the 1980s. Population growth has averaged 3.3 percent per year during the 1980s. Per capita daily calorie consumption is only 1,817, and 24 percent of the people are food insecure. There is little wilderness left, although nearly 15 percent of the country has been set aside as protected areas. The rate of deforestation has been 2.3 percent per year, and 45 percent of the entire land area is cropped. The modest agricultural growth target of 3 percent per year can only be achieved through agricultral intensification. Population growth must be reduced to the maximum extent possible. The very high population density may be creating demand for smaller family size; FP interventions should seek to capitalize on this. Reforestation must be intensified, on land unsuitable for crops. The difficulties zre immense. Indeed, the targets spelled out here imply that '9 percent of the population will 3till be food insecure in the year 2')20. Out-migration to other countries will clearly be inevitable. - 71 - 6.29 Nigrja's example is important, if only because of the country's size. It's agricultural performance during the 1980s has been marked by widely fluctuating production, with a trend growth rate of 3.3 percent per year, matching the population growth rate. The country has such potendial for growth that, with appropriate policy reforms in key areas, it can achieve 4 percent agricultural growth per annum in the medium term. As much as four fifths of this growth can be realized without expanding the area nnder cultivation because of the availability of proven yield-increasing technology for several key crops and the scope for double-cropping through small-scale irrigation. The remainder will come from modest expansion of the area cropped. Realignment of public expenditure toward small-scale irrigation, provision and maintenance of rural roads, improvement in agricultural support services, reduction of the fertilizer subsidy and liberalization of fertilizer imports and marketing are key areas requiring policy reform. Without such reforms, future agricultural growth would have to come primarily from area expansion which would not be sustainable. The country's family planning effort, very weak at present, will have to improve considerably for the target population growth rate of 2.1 percent per annum to be reached by the year 2020. As population pressure on cultivated land is rising, demand for FP services appears to be increasing in parts of the country, and FP programs will need to foster such demand growth and meet this rising and largely unmet demand. Substantial policy reforms will be needed to stop the rapid destruction of existing forest resources and to induce sufficient private investment in agro-forestry, fuelwood and industrial plantations if the target of reducing deforestation to an annual rate of 0.3 percent is to be met. VII. REDUCING POPULATION GROWTH A. Population Policy (I) Key Issues and Chalenges 7.1 Chapter III suggested several avenues for reducing population growth. Fertility rates can be brought down by emphasizing direct actions such as improving knowledge and availability of family planning (FP) services. But to have maximum impact, these 'supply-side' efforts need to be backed, if not preceded, by efforts to stimulate demand - such as improving education, especially of females, reducing infant mortality, improving food security, and reducing environmental degradation. Family planning education can be provided through FP services, along with the means to control fertility. By providing nutrition advice, FP services can also help in reducmg infant mortality and improving nutritional standards. Increasing density of population on cultivable land may also stimulate demand for fewer children. Acceptance and adoption of FP will spread most rapidly in countries where demand for FP services is increasing fastest. This is likely to be in countries with the highest levels of female education, the lowest infant mortality, the highest population densities on cultivated land, the least environmental degradation, and the greatest food security. 7.2 Governments are increasingly aware of the consequences of rapid population growth. In i974, only Botswana, Ghana, Kenya and Mauritius had adopted policies to reduce population growth. By 1987, 14 countries Lad adopted explicit national population policies (Cochrane, Sai and Nassim, 1990, p. 229), and a number of others have done so since then. In 1989, 26 governments in Sub- Saharan Africa considered their population growth rates, and 29 their TFRs, to be too high (Stephens et al., 1991, p. xxxv). But few have so far provided adequate technical, financial and managerial resources to promote and deliver FP services broadly. Hence, progress has been slow. 7.3 Only a few countries on the continent - notably Botswana, Kenya and Zimbabwe - have been implementing population programs that have shown some measurable success (Tables 2 and 8). The Contraceptive Prevalence Rate (CPR) in Botswana more than doubled, from 16 percent to 33 percent, between 1984 and 1990, as FP services were placed within easy reach of the majority of the population. Botswana's TFR declined from 6.9 in 1965 to 4.7 in 1988. Kenya succeeded in raising the CPR from 5 percent in the mid-1970s to 17 percent in 1984 and to 27 percent in 1989, and the TFit declined from 8.0 in 1965 to 6.5 in 1989. In Zimbabwe, the CPR is now estimated at 43 perceai, and tte TFR dropped from 8.0 to 5.3 between 1965 and 1988; the creation of a network of FP clinics and of a community-based outreach program which widely distributed contraceptives was instrumental in providing access to FP services. An indication of changing attitudes concerning fertility and of growing demand for FP services is evident in the number of children desired by women in these three countries. In 1988/89, women wanted only 4.7, 4.4 and 4.9 children, respetively, in Botswana, Kenya and Zimbabwe - far fewer than their counterparts in other SSA countries and also far fewer than women in the same three countries only ten years ago (Table 8). 7.4 Government policies in these countries have played a major role in achieving fertility reduction through an expansion of FP services and education. However, in each of these countries the fimdamental forces have also been working: relatively dense population on cultivated land, relaively high female school enrollments, good agricultural performance contributing to enhanced food security, and declining infant mortality. Yet even in these three relatively successful countries, the TFR must be brought down still further. - 73 - 7.5 To lower the population growth rate to 2.3 percent per annum for Sub-Saharan Africa by the year 2030, the average TFR for Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole must drop steadily to 3.3 by that time (Table 4). This is possible, as shown by evidence from countries outside Africa where per capita incomes are low and populations largely rural, and where infant mortality rates and life expectancy, when the effort was initiated, were comparable to those in Sub-Saharan Africa today. It requires determined effort and commitment from the political leadership to shape public attitudes and implement policies and programs to reduce population growth. 7.6 Significant reductions in fertility cannot be expected until the CPR reaches 25-30 percent. Slowing population growth to only 2.3 percent per annum during the period 2020 to 2030 would require increasing the CPR substantially Above even this level. This underscores the need for fostering greater awareness of the consequences of population growth as well as the need for measures to stimulate demand for FP services. Increasing the availability of FP services raises the level of their use. There is evidence that, even at the present levels of demand for family planning, the CPR in Sub-Saharan Africa could be raised to 25 percent within the current decade by making services widely, regularly and reliably available. It will require a rapid expansion of access to FP services, and this, in turn, will require strengthening and expanding public health care systems and developing multiple channels (public sector, private commercial, NGO, community organizations) for delivering services as well as information, education and communication ([EC). The progress achieved in Botswana, Kenya and Zimbabwe indicates what is possible, when the various other factors that bear upon demand for children also moving in the right direction (Table 8). 7.7 The ethical issues in family planning in Sub-Saharan Africa form a complex web of social, economic, cultural and developmental concerns, and dialogua on ethical issues in family planning is crucial if the process of 'depoliticizing' family planning is to continue (Sai and Newman, 1989). The promotion of family planning as a basic human right and as an important health measure has increased its acceptability, and family planning is now increasingly regarded a legitimate component of overall development efforts. But the "human right" to controlling one's own fertility remains elusive without full and ready access to FP information, education and services. This entails full and voluntary choice of method, right of access for young people, and financial affordability of fertility regulation services. Each of these has caused ethical controversy in some countries. The right of access to FP services is derived from the basic right to make decisions about reproductive behavior. This, too, has been controversial in some countries. 7.8 Family planning is also a major element of the rights of women. Many women prefer to have fewer children, but are discouraged from adopting family planning by socio-cultural factors, including their husbands' wishes. This highlights the importance of reaching men, either at the workplace or through other means such as the agricultural extension services. It also suggests that women's groups would be an effective channel for delivering family planning services because they foster solidarity among women and may help them take fertility decisions on their own. 7.9 In about a dozen countries, fertility regulation programs are part of national population policies.' In other countries with FP setvices, the rationale is not so much to reduce fertility but to t It is important to dsinguish betmeen populaion policies and fanmly plaming progrms. Populaton policy includ family planing, but also includes a range of measus to influc decisions at th family and comunity level as wall as education and health prog effecting fanily ize. It also compi changing laws to encourage small families and providing effctio incentives and disinentives (e.g., cost sharinr for health and education). A compehenivo pultio policy mus also include policies to cope with tho consequences of populatio growth. This mns geeral developmet policies that encourage optimal use of resoure in agricultu, urban development, and so on. - 74 - improve maternal and child health (MCH). The health rationale for family planning, especialy for preventing high-risk pregnancies, Is proven and especiaily pertinent in Sub-Saharan Africa where infant and maten mortality and morbidity rates are high. One of the key elements of primary health care is MCH care, and this includes family planning. By providing the means to postpone childbearing until after adolescence, helping to space births at 2-3 year intervals, and preventing pregnancies after the age of 35, family planning can gready improve maternal and child health. 7.10 Where the rationale for FP programs is demographic, it is often a matter of controversy whether government has the right to influence the reproductive behavior of the citizens. Clearly, unless population policies command broad popular support, the prospects for reducing population growth rates are dim. And where poor governace is causing people to question the legitimacy of governments, governmental population policies and PP programs tend to be viewed with particular skepticism. It is critical that anti-natalist policies be seen to apply to entire populations and be evenly implemented. Policies can justifiably become discredited when they appear designed to modify the balance of etdnic groups. 7.11 Needed is a deliberate fostering of pluralism in efforts to extend access to FP information and services by encouraging and supporting local government, community and private initiatives. Ihe successful involvement of non-governmental groups in PP in Sub-Saharan Africa strongly suggests the viability of such an approach. Fostering pluralism entails a broad agenda of activities to facilitate local and private initiatives and learn from them. It involves difficult choices about how and where to expend governments' limited technical and administrative resources. Governments must take the lead In promoting the dissemination of FP information and in developing a social consensus on its legitimacy. Especially in rural areas, where the government is the major provider of modern health care and specifically of MCH services, the public sector may have to be the principal provider of FP services for some time to come. Many fctors stiU bear on the ethics of family planning in Sub-Saharan Africa, and these point to the need for a sensitive approach (Sai and Newman, 1989). (U) Promoting Demandfor Fewer ChUdren 7.12 Even greatly improved supply of PP services wiUl not succeed in bringing about the required declines in fertlity, unless demand for fewer children rises considerably.2 The evidence of attitudinal and behavioral changes regarding fertlity in many parts of the continent suggests that it is possible to create such demand. Between 20 and 40 percent of women in the countries of Sub- Saharan Africa wish to space their children at least two years apart Crable 6). Rising pressure of the rural populations on cultivated land is stimulating demand for smaUer family size. Migration and urbanization are loosening extended family ties and raising the private costs of children. Education of women is increasing, there is a clear trend toward later marriage,3 and there are indications of considerable unmet demand for modern contraception Crable 6). These changes in attitudes can be encouraged, promoted and accelerated by a variety of means, including effectve information, education and communication EC) programs, so as to lead to increased demand for FP services. 2 A no" evation of pod Wodd ank opetions in do pouato sector coned dhat PP sesvices have ben offered in many ouies when the wanw little evidmec of ny significu domand for them (World Bank, 1991.). Ave ap at madage i_nses wih eduaio level - adu tWs celaon is uSSe in ShA d er ino. This may be beus educaion for wono is ereran m in SSA and differenes in ao at mariae hrfo reflec the excepdona differne in th live of th mnot educed. Sinc fmaole educa is a moe rca ph_nomeon in SSA. tho diffeun in p at amus mqW alo caue both education nd cohort effcts. 1tatsny, th largw diffenoes in av at marriage ra yet refletd in diffeenes in fetiilly in the early 1980s (Cochmn ant Farid, 1989). - 75 - 7.13 Improving the legal, economic and social status of women is critical to overcoming the constraints imposed upon them by their traditional roles that perpetuate high fertility. This entails, Inter alia, recognizing and emphasizing that women's status also derives from their economic contributions to family, community and society. It requires, therefore, expanding the range of opportunities available to them and supporting developments that provide women with greater control over their own lives and the output and income generated by their work. Greater educational opportunities, removal of discriminatory laws, raising the age of marriage, ensuring women's rights to land, improving their access to credit and training, meeting their needs for technology and information, opening up employment and income-earning opportunities beyond those traditionally open to them, and strengthening women's organizations all help to raise women's status and give them greater control over their lives. At the same time, efforts must be made to relieve both the environmental degradation and the work burden on women, both of which fuel demand for additional family labor. 7.14 To promote demand for FP services, actions such as the following are essential: (a) Political leaders and communities need to be sensuzed to the environmental and economic consequences of rapid population growth. People's demand for family planning and contraception, as well as for later female marriage, must be increased through widespread IEC programs. In order to ensure that people regard such programs as legitimate, governments must demonstrate continually their legitimacy and credibility, through good governance. Governments lacking credibility and popular acceptance are very likely to confront popular distrust of population programs. (b) Effective measures are needed to expand education, especially for females, and to improve women's income-earning opportunities. This will tend to raise women's marriage age and reduce both their desired and actual number of children. To the extent hat improved income-earning opportunites for women lead to increased control by women over such income, this will have strong positive effects on child health and welfare, on infant and child mortality and, hence, on women's fertility preferences. (c) Health services need to be expanded and improved to deal with major epidemic diseases and reduce infant and child mortality. This will increase the security of having descendants at death and weaken one of the major traditional motivations for desiring large families. It will also reduce the economic incentive for having larger families, since fewer, but surviving, children can assure adequate availability of family labor. (d) Expanding access to effective primary health care is also essential to address the problems of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). STDs are major causes of infertility, which in some regions discourage any interest in fertility control. High incidences of STIDs are also an important factor contributing to the rapid spread of AIDS. (e) Incentives for smaller families and disincentives for large families (e.g., limitations on tax deductions for children) may help in the longer term. Community leaders, teachers, agricultural extension agents and the mass media should be utilized to convince people of the economic, environmental and health benefits of having fewer children. (f) Land tenure reform as well as improved access of women to land, to agricultural extensicn and to credit are likely to reduce the pressure on women to have many children. Greater food security also appears to lead to reductions in ferdlity rates. -76 - s.~~~~~Jwal _ _;_R~ =stiIg bd, anbIv3 3Pft duZ pl~e ~ iiG;eolliaM4~ ~.~ dl ptst *,sv iunoni1n wM ttohgw V*0,..,s.,t =a~o oi~lelihyi4e aI ~ ~ ea&~ ao~i ~s~ A h e~e1Iyt *~il~ #t~1N ~ t M~ ~4 ~~ot~~ a4 onIbiI~W m...4@~e 7.15 ~at Imprvovigh suipply and accessibility of FePw servcsto repnd tothemndceae by measures such as those outlined above requires the combined efforts of governments, NGOs and aid donors. The target must be to raise the CPR in each country sufficiently to achieve a 50 percent reduction in the TFR by 2030 (Fables 4 and 5). For Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole, this implies increasing the average CPR from less than 11 at present to over 45 by the year 2020 and to over 50 by 2025 (Fable 5). 7.16 The family planning effort of nearly every country in Sub-Saharan Africa rankcs near the bottom of developing countries, with the notable excceptions of Botswana, Kenya, Mauritius, Zimbabwe and, arguably, Ghana (Fable 7). Fertility can be reduced and population growth slowed if governments, schools, employers and NGOs take measures to increase the demand for smaller families while supplying the services needed for families to limit family size. The FP services provided must be of high qulality and responsive to clients' needs, and there must be adequate provision for monitoring and evaluation. 7.17 In most countries of Sub-Saharan Africa, FP services are integrated with and delivered trough the public health system, usually as part of MCH{ care. But in many countries the public health system is weak and limited and unable to deliver widespread and effective F? services. Rapid expansion of access to family planning will therefore requiire strengthening and expanding public health care systems as well as developing alternative and supplementary channels to deliver FP services and JEC. Where AIDS is important, this will be all the more critical, since sex and health education and the provision of condoms are the ke3f instruments for combatting its spread. 7.18 The promotion of modern family planning can build on long-stading traditions of spacing births through prolonged breastfeeding ad post-partum sexual abstinence. The significant potential health gains from family planning appeal to policy-makers and to the people affiected. And new methods of delivering FP services have been shown to be workcable and to makce a difference in parts of Sub-Saharan Africa. A focus on birth spacing, rather than on family size limitation, would appear to be most appropriate where demand for fewer children is not strong. This is most comnmon in those countries where the population pressure on cultivated land is comparatively weak and where traditional incentives for want ng large families remain strong. -77 - 7.19 Supply and accessibility could be substantially improved by measures such as the following: (a) Governments should establish and strengthen public institutions charged with population and FP programs. This will involve staff training, management improvements, and strengthened program content. (b) The role of NMOs in family planning should be expanded NGOs have demonstrated their effectiveness in dealing with family planning issues effectively all over the world. (c) Private FP organizations, non-governmental health care networks (churches, employers' schemes), private health care practitioners (mcluding traditional health care providers), other non-governmental development groups (women's groups and community associations), non-health outreach networks (agricultural extension and community development workers) can all be effectively used as channels for FP services. So can commercial outlets such as pharmacies, market traders and rural stores, particularly for marketing contraceptives. With AIDS an increasingly severe problem in many countries, a massive effort to expand the range of providers of condoms will be critical. (d) Community incentive schemes should be developed and funded to induce communities to take action to reduce population growth through community-managed family planning programs. These programs can be managed, with govermment funding, by schools, employers and community groups. 7.20 Periodic demographic and health and contraceptive prevalence surveys are needed to establish baseline data and provide essential information on fertility, family planning and maternal and child health to policy makers and planners. Such data would reveal unmet demand for family planning and would indicate where service expansion or improvement is warranted and most needed. B. Primary Education 7.21 In most countries of Sub-Saharan Africa, two important development objectives are (a) to improve the quality of primary education and (b) to expand primarily school enrollment, especially of girls. Indeed, one of the most critical issues in the education sector in much of Sub-Saharan Africa is the urgency to increase primary school enrollment of girls. In some countries, girls account for less than 20 percent of primary school enrollment and even less in secondary and tertiary education. The lower rates of female school enrollment and the higher rates of female drop-out at earlier grades are due in large measure to the high demand for girls to help with domestic work, such as caring for younger siblings, fetching water and fuelwood, etc. (e.g., Ventura-Dias, 1985, p. 183). Caring for younger siblings is particularly prevalent among girls aged six to nine - an age at which they should attend primary school. Once they have missed that, their chance to receive schooling is almost inevitably lost forever. These girls are very likely to remain in the low-education, low- income, low-status, high-fertility rut. 7.22 The gender gap in education has a high cost. Primary schooling beyond the first three years lowers women's fertility. Female education also has a strong effect on family welfare: the mother's education may be the single most important determinant of child health and nutrition. Moreover, since the majority of agricultural subsistence producers are women, better education for women can be expected to improve agricultural productivity - as well as women's incomes, opportunities and decision-making power within the household. -78 - 7.23 A number of possibilities exist and have been successfully tried in various settings to increase primary and especially female school enrollment. These need not be repeated here. One such possibility merits mention, as it may be of particular relevance in the present context. It concerns changing school schedules - daily hours as well as vacations - to fit better into rural production systems and agricultural seasons. Children will need to help with farm work, especially at peak periods, and if school is scheduled accordingly this may ha!p improve attendance. Current vacation schedules are often still those established prior to independex:ce on the model and patterns of the colonial powers. European school breals were scheduled to allow child labor in farming activities (planting, weeding, harvesting). The farming seasons in the Sub-Saharan Africa are different. Regional school administrations should be given authority to adjust schedules to local realities. C. Conclusion 7.24 Rapid population growth is detrimental to achieving economic and social progress and to sustainable management of the natural resource base. But there remains a sizeable gap between the private and social interest in fertility reduction, and this gap needs to be narrowed. Policies and programs which influence health, education, the status of women and the economic value of children in turn influence attitudes toward childbearing, family planning and people's ability to control family size. Efforts to reduce fertility through explicit population policies, therefore, should be integrated with policies to improve health, education and women's status. 7.25 The various components of human resource development programs are strongly synergistic. Family planning is more readily accepted when education levels are high and mortality low and, in particular, when child mortality is low. Healthy children are more likely to attend school. Clean water and sanitation are more beneficial if combined with health education and nutrition education. Educated mothers are more likely to have fewer and healthier children. These human resource development efforts also have positive effects on agricultural productivity and, hence, on food security. This, in turn, stimulates demand for fewer children. Improvements in human resource development are therefore critical in multiple ways for long-term suswtainable development. 7.26 Broad-based improvement in human resource development performance requires reorienting policies and financial resources to focus on delivery systems that respond to the critical needs of the vast majority of the population, including the poor. This entails a far greater emphasis on primary education and basic health care. It also requires financial resources and, hence, substantial and sustained economic growth to generate sufficient resources to invest in human resource development (the significant potential and need for improving cost effectiveness notwithstanding). Without substantially improved agricultural growth performance, this will not bc attainable. VIl. PROMOTING SUSrAINABLE AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT A. Sustainable and Environmentally Benign Agriculture 8.1 As suggested by the analysis in Chrpters IV, V and VI, agricultural development efforts must focus on innovations which improve the productivity of land and of farm labor. Incentives which encourage increases in both land productivity and in further expansion of the cultivated area are consistent with agricultural growth objectives, but not with environmental protection concerns. The objective, therefore, must be to increase the productivity of both land and labor, in order to permit output growth while minimizing the increase in the area farmed. The required increase in productivity must be achieved with the least possible destruction of the environment. 8.2 A critical issue to be kept in mind is the extraordinarily high risk faced by most farmers and herders in Sub-Saharan Africa. Rainfall is unpredictable in all but the most humid zones, and much of the continent has a significant chance of drought each year. Even in years of adequate overall rainfall, rains can start late or end early, and dry spells can occur at crucial times in the growing season. Most African soils need skilled management to ensure sustainable production, and most are easily degraded when their vegetative cover is thinned or removed. The dryer areas are dominated by sandy porous soils deficient in nutrients, while many of the humid lowlands have acid soils where aluminum toxicity can damage plants. The most fertile soils are in the East African highlands, where slopes and intense downpours increase the risk of erosion. The dark clay and alluvial soils in valley bottoms are prone to waterlogging and difficult to cultivate without animal traction or mechanized equipment. And the potential for irrigation is limited. 8.3 Crop farming in Sub-Saharan Africa, ........ as in other tropical regions, also is characterized by extreme seasonality of labor requirements and A labor peaks (Ruthenberg, 1985, pp. 77-78). Labor _ ta shortages are very common at the stages of land 5 preparation, weeding and harvesting. With s 1 traditional tools, land can only prepared once the mm n . t rains have started - but then it must be done very . .. quickly to allow sufficient time for crops to grow ...le.v b on the available moisture. With the onset of the . - dM. rains, growth conditions also become ideal for f..-g 9 8 weeds, and weeding becomes critical. Similar urgency prevails at harvest time to prevent crop losses. These labor constraints are compounded by the effects of climate, health and nutrition. In humid tropical and subtropical climates, only light work is possible during the midday and early afternoon hours when there is no shade. Heavy work must be interrupted by frequent and prolonged rest periods. If people are poorly nourished and/or afflicted with disease, their capacity for hard and sustained work is furither diminished.' An obvious implication of this is the enormous need for labor saving technology in tropical agriculture. Runthberg (1985, p. 78; eing rc h published by H. Brant in Work Capacity Constraints in Tropical Agrcul Developmnat,' in Medizin in Entwiclduneulondrn. Heft 8, Vrlag P. D. Lang, Fankfut, Germay, 1980) points out that the 'admisiblo work load' for a heathy peon would b 300 kbal per hour in agrdicul field work at 2P C (or about 80" F) with no insoation, but only 225 kW woking with f1ll insolation A sick workr, by cont, woidn in full insolation, can only expend about 180 kal/hour. Wo* capacity docline very rapidly with dising tempt. At 300 C, a healthy woreAr in the shade can put in about 150 kel/hor, while sick poople sowld be resing in the shade. - 80 - 8.4 Generally poor and heavily dependent on local natural resources and family labor, farmers and herders in Sub-Sanaran Africa cope with uncertainty and with sustainability problems by adopting a variety of flexible strategies that minimize risk and make optimal use of their available resources. Examples of such strategies include planting multiple crops and multiple varieties of multiple crops; diversifying herds and maintaining a high degree of mobility; establishing social arrangements to gain access to additional resources at times of stress; pursuing a variety of off-farm income-generating activities, particularly during the off-season. These strategies seek to diversify income and food sources, stabilize aggregate production and income, minimize risk, and maximize returns to labor under low-technology conditions. In crop production strategies, the central objectives almost invariably are: (a) to ensure optimum stable aggregate output of multiple crops over time, at the expense of maximizing yields of individual crops (see also para. 8.15), and (b) to maximize output per unit of labor rather than per unit of land. 8.5 Farmers seek to maximize production per unit of land only when land becomes scarce relative to labor. This is now occurring in many parts of Sub-Saharan Africa. The weakness of the traditional coping strategies, as discussed in Chapter IV, is that they are not capable of adjusting quickly enough to prevent serious negative impact of rapid population growth and increasing population pressure on soil fertility, farm size, fuelwood availability, land tenure systems, and so forth. The challenge is to increase farmers' and communities' ability quickly and effectively to confront these problems, building on their traditional mechanisms of coping with their environment. 8.6 Another critical issue is that of ensuring the longer-term sustainabiity of agricultural production systems. Sustainabiity has several dimensions and must be considered in terms of environmental, technological, economic, social and institutional aspects and constraints and the interactions among them. It also must be considered in a dynamic sense, since there will be change, probably quite rapid in certain areas. If the rapidly rising demand for agricultural products is to be met without further depletion of the natural resource base, this requires modification of agricultural production systems in the direction of intensification (i.e., more output per unit of land). 8.7 There are numerous environmentally benign agricultural technologies which have been developed experimentally on a small scale in Sub-Saharan Africa. Examples include contour farming to reduce water run-off and soil erosion, mulching, minimum tillage, intensive fallowing, crop mixtures and rotations which assure continuous soil cover, terracing and bunding, integration of livestock and cropping to maintain soil fertility, agro-forestry, integrated pest management, and water harvesting. In some countries farmer-managed small-scale irrigation also has considerable potential. Behind each of these terms lies a considerable body of agricultural knowledge which to date has found little application in Africa outside of a number of NGO projects. Accelerating the widespread adoption of such technology, carefully adapted to the widely varying local agro-ecological and socio- economic conditions, is essential if the critical problems faced by African agriculture are to be successfully overcome. 8.8 Such technologies need to be mastered by national agricultural research and extension systems so that they can be more widely adapted to farmers' circumstances. There is a basic constraint, however, which is as much responsible for the lack of successfil introduction of these technologies as has been poor research and extension. Farmers have not demanded these technologies - much as most people have not demanded family planning. There has been little incentive for individual farmers to introduce such technologies in place of traditional methods. As Boserup suggested, as long as there is free land to open up for farming, investing labor and capital in more intensive agriculture makes little sense from the farmer's perspective. When inappropriate macro- economic and agricultural policies reduce the profitability of farming, the incentive for farmers to - 81 - intensify is further weakened. Policies that encourage opening up of additional farm hand are not the answer, however, since these can be environmentally destructive. This complicates the sear."h for solutions to the problem. 8.9 Agricultural Intensification on a wide scale therefore requires rilore effective research and extension. It also requires policies that induce farmers to intensify production. Ensuring that intensive farming is profitable requires the kind of price, tax and exchange rate policy environment suggested in the World Bank's long-term perspective study for Sub-Saharan Africa (World Bank, 1989d). Agricultural input and output prices must be determined not by governmental decree or by monopolistic or monopsonistic parastatal marketing agencies, but by market forces and must be closely linked to world prices. Exchange rate policies must ensure efficient equilibration of international and internal prices. And marketing, trade and investment policies must facilitate private response to market opportunities. 8.10 In the short to medium term, subsidies may be necessary for farm inputs needed to introduce intensive sustainable agricultural techniques, while shifting cultivation and the conversion of further forest and savanna land to crop land may need to be taxed for environmental reasons. Such measures raise the cost of land and improve the profitability of intensification. Another, complementary, approach would involve providing compensation to individuals and communities to offset the gap between private and public costs and benefits of resource-conserving agricultural production methods.2 Such subsidy programs would need to be carefully designed and monitored (see also paras. 8.63-8.65). 8.11 The environmentally benign and sustainable technologies of the type noted in para. 8.7 are, by themselves, unlikely to be sufficient to permit most countries of Sub-Saharan Africa to achieve agricultural growth rates of 4 percent per annum. Improved crop variety/fertilizer/farm mechanization technologies will also be necessary, and the most desirable scenario would involve the widespread adoption of location-specific appropriate combinations of both. A gradual shift to locally suitable higher-value crops and livestock products will also be necessary. Over time, this will be stimulated by the poiicy reforms briefly summarized above. Nevertheless, in certain agro-ecological settihigs, some trade-offs between agricultural intensification and environmental resource protection will be inevitable. The following sections discuss environmentally benign low-input, low-risk tchnologies that deserve greater emphasis. (I) SoUl Conservation and Fertiity Management 8.12 Soil erosion is influenced by a combination and interplay of many factors - including soil characteristics, climate, topography, land use and farming practices. It is therefore site-specific, and individual control measures that are appropriate and successful in one set of circumstances cannot automatically be transferred without modification to another location. 2 If, fr exampnl, consrctig rock bunds eep o lpe. o or affoon of evely &graded land to preve Suy omsion prvide high econoic reums, but low financial ntm to tho farmer and comnmunities who would be undewing the wo, appropriato compent would be seibl to cover the diffeenc. This migh tlake the form of paly or wholly ubsidized poviion of key inpubt (e.g., seedlings), of diect wago payments (under food-for-wodc schemes, for example), or of the provision of villago-level infrastruct facilities in exchang for comnunity action on eswouc conservation. Tis tyxpe of approch is diuss an andayzed in detailn PAiA/Wodd Bank Coopeafive Programe, 1991, and a land resc consevatonm project in Ohana now being ppised by the World Bank is likely to test this approach in practie. - 82 - 8.13 Farmers adopt soil conservation measures that they clearly perceive to be in their own interest. In low-resource and labor-constrained settings, and with risk-averse farmers, measures recommended for adoption must increase crop yields (probably by' fairly significant margin), require little or no cash outlay-, and conflict as litde as possible with existing peak labor demands. If tree planting is involved, local rules concerning tree tenure must be considered, as must the often considerable differences in the allocation of costs and benefits between men and women (see para. 8.41). If men are to invest in tree planting and maintenance, trees must produce cash crops and/or timber (or fuelwood for sale). Women far more readily value trees that provide fuelwood for own use, livestock fodder, fruits and other non-wood products. Many soil conservation efforts require additional labor - which often has high opportunity costs or is simply not available. Even off-season labor availability cannot be taken for granted. Rural people pursue various non-farm income-earning activities when farm labor needs are slack, and seasonal outmigration of men is common in many areas. The shortage of labor has been one major reason for the lack of adoption of many soil conssavation programs. The other has been the perceived low rate of financial return to most of the techniques that would be technically effective. Where, however, the labor/land ratio is high, as in parts of the East African highlands, various labor-intensive soil conservation techniques are financially attractive and, indeed, widely used. It can be concluded, therefore, that farmers' willingness to undertake soil conservation measures will increase as population densities rise, as soil degradation and erosion problems intensify, and as policy reforms make intensive agriculture more profitable. 8.14 African fatmers already use a variety of techniques, highly adapted to local conditions, to manage soil fertility and conserve soil. Many of the "more innovative" practices now being evaluated and refined on research stations are in fact based on techniques developed by farmers themselves. These techniques are founded on the recognition that the only truly effective way of controlling soil erosion is the maintenance of vegetative soil cover, especially during the rainy season. Many traditional farming practices contain a number of features that are designed, in part, to meet this requirement: mixed cropping, intercropping, relay cropping, various forms of fallowing, crop rotations, no-tillage and minimum tillage, multi-story farming, a variety of agro-forestry techniques, etc.3 8.15 All these techniques also meet other important requirements. Particularly essential are these: spreading total labor requirements as evenly as possible over the year; making optimal use of cultivated land through spatiai arrangement of crops in mixed cropping systems;' and minimizing risk and stabilizing aggregate output from multiple speciks in environments characterized by considerable climatic uncertainty. It has been repeatedly documented that African farmers "outperform" the weather: indices of crop yields over time fluctuate considerably less than indices of rainfall (Dommen, 1988, p. 27). 8.16 Basing improvements on this rich tradition of farmer ingenuity and adaptation to local circumstances and constraints holds the greatest promise for success in overcoming the problems now facing agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa. By the same token, failure to recognize this potential and 3 Panmer, have also onand to enginei techniup to combat oil eon and uprove water roton on their fanm land. In varis paru of tho Sael, teW , gone lines and one buads, and n riges, often laid out in gids, ae taditkeal nmto vl usd in Mali, Bwdlin Fam and Nier. Most of thos tchniqu continue to be uded, but tace maienance is inc *dngl being neglected due to labor constints (RejI, 1988, pp. 19-23). 4 In mied crWppig qsems in te whumid topwi forest zone, 20 to 30 diffaent spcia appear to be the "nonn' on a dngle fam, but as mny 60 specie have been found. In the semi-arid teginsn, IS to 20 species appear to be the noma range for a single farm (Dommen, 1988, p. 36). - 83 - to tailor supportive efforts accordingly has been an important factor contributing to the non-adoption of many technical 'solutions' proffered in the past to overcome Africa's agricultural crisis.5 8.17 Numerous effective and low-cost or no-cost techniques can be made available to African farmers that would permit intensification and greater sedentarization, improve yields, and maintain soil fertility. Which of these are appropriate - technically and economically - depends very much on local conditions. A few examples of techniques aimed at soil conservation and soil fertility management are the following: * Vegetative soil and water conservation methods are highly effective and far less labor- intensive to establish and maintain thad terraces and other soil-moving techniques. Except on very steep slopes, grassy strips (sometimes called infiltration bands) have been found to be as effective in combating erosion as bench terraces - these being the two most effecdve techniques. Permanent strips of suitable species, established on the contour at proper intervals down the slope, are highly effective in slowing runoff, reducing soil erosion, improving moisture retention, and creating natural terraces over time. If fodder grasses are used, periodic cuttings provide animal fodder. Variations of this method are already in use, for instance, in Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Nigeria, Rwanda and Tanzania.6 * Where draft power is available, ploughing along the contour on sloping land will considerably reduce soil erosion and increase water infiltration. The effectiveness of contour farming is furlker improved if permanent contour key lines are established at appropriate intervals down the slope by means of permanent strips of suitable plant species (such as Ve4verta pp.). v Mulching can considerably reduce soil erosion, improve in-situ water retention, raise soil fertility and increase yields. But mulching annual crops is difficult. It can only be done after the seedlings have emerged, so that the mulch will not prevent germination. Consequently, mulch will not be in place at the onset of the rains, when much soil erosion takes place. Moreover, many annuals are low to the ground and mulch, with its micro-enviromnent that harbors insects and molds, is close to the leaves of the young plants. The techniques of annual crop mulching are proving to be extremely demanding. Most experimental work in thin area has been conducted by the nternational Institute of Tropical Agriculture (HTA), which has generally had to resort to pesticides (Jones and Egli, 1984). A longtine sudent of the uation in norhm Nigeria ha witen th the -baeic ntionality of indigenous land-ue ydtema emergeo unfaiingly from amost evey field invetion and teho nrionale of indignu land-e sydem must becm the bhs for onservaionay ourco mangeentw for the simple reon dat the land bongp to, and must ontimue to be ocacpied by, its pent population' (Moeinor, 19s9a, p. 207). 6 For beat offect, the specie ued hould be edhr a ra or a shub wth dee roots nd song and dense leaves ad m; it should be drougt, fir, livstock and flood reiant, shold not tak up much crop land, end shuld not habor pest or dise. Vedweia *wdoids, k clmip gre, exhibits all thm chacetics and more. It thrives in aid and md ondtions, seem to grow on any soil (nclding shalow rocky s) and muives wido tem ature ange. It is vitully maintenance-fie, produces a den hedge, and is exemely effoecvo in tpping silt, lowing noff and increng water infiltrai Its usd for oil conservation puroes in rogions a divere as China, PFi and bIdia. Extension srvices in Nigeia, following succs field trial, a now prmoting its ue, as well a that of its clofs relativo VedvrfHa ni8rtnaw, as a vegetative eos barrer; V nigrim has long been usd by farm in pats of northe Nigea to mark their fidd boundies. - 84 - * Minimum tillage and no-dllage methods, which involve planting .. .. . directly into a stubble mulch without ploughing or hoeing, can gip- virtually eliminate soil losses, a increase water infiltration and P? T *ii l* tdlWhlSor1itM, retention, and reduce labor input _ 3 per unit of output. Mkinimum .~'" ~ aeai.eeir~ tillage is, of course, a practice very familiar to farmers in forest 'i Ai iy "d wd fallow systems. Soils in forest i. fallow systems are, however, -.= almost entirely free of weed seeds - ------ and extremely easy to work with a - planting stick. Neither condition . .... is likely to apply in minimum qfoet. tillage or no-tillage systems f a i practiced on more permanently . cultivated land. ' Intensive' or 'managed fallowing' - sowing deep-rooted legumes when land is taken out of production, rather than simply allowing natural revegetation to take place - can greatly improve soil fertility even in a single year. Where new land remains available for clearing, however, or where livestock are allowed to graze fallow land, farmers may be slow to change their fallowing practices. 8.18 Labor-intensive approaches and mechanical or engineering works (such as terracing and bunding) are suitable only in certain settings. Moreover, engineering works will not be satisfactory in isolation. The primary requirement is appropriate land use, and mechanical conservation works must be accompanied by good farming practices (Hudson, 1987, p. 158). * Terracing is common in some parts of Sub-Saharan Africa, mainly on steep!y sloping land.' When properly constructed and maintained, terraces are highly effective in preventing soil erosion and increasing the retention of water in the soil, but they have drawbacks. Most important, they require considerable labor to construct and maintain and are far more expensive per ton of soil retained than any other alternative for soil erosion control. * Earthen bunds also require frequent maintenance and repair. Unless properly maintained and stabilized with grasses, they last only two to five years.' On slopes of more than 10 7 From 1976 to 195, wih pport from veul extal aid a o, Eth*ipian farm consructed 60,000 bIn of bunds ad 470,000 bn of tane. for efobreation; however, thi amunwt to jut 6 percent of Ethiopia' thuead hig*lds. In Budd=na Paso, auth bund. ontuctd in ft oely 196ih to prt some 120,000 ha in tie Yateg egion have not boen mainid and vitaly diapeared. Eabund built bewen 1973 and 1985 by to Fonds de Ddve anpp t Rual to protet about 48,000 ha on do Cetal aAi in BDua Pao have also not been maintin by farmer.. In Niger teikpeuenoe ha been similarly diaapointitg. Earthen bnds bui in the 1960 to trat 2,000 ha in th Maggia VaHey and in the 1970. to prtot 4,000 ha in lhe ad6guichei Valey we not maintained and are today larly degaded (Rajj, 1988). - 85 - percent gradient, they silt up rapidly; their trap efficiency may be 30 to 50 percent in the first year but falls to zero in the second (Grimshaw, 1989). They have been found useful only on well-drained soils. Elsewhere, they are susceptible to breaching and failure and cause water logging. * In Rwanda and Burundi, contour ditches Introduced by colonial governments to control soil loss were abandoned after independence because farmers, who have a good idea of the cost in lIA.or of digging and maintaining ditches, felt the ditches were not worth the maintenance they required (Brown and Wolf, 1985, p. 42; Jones and Egli, 1984). Th.e practice is now slowly being reintroduced, along with tree planting, mulching and other complementary conservation measures. * On the Yatenga Plateau in Burkina Faso, farmers have adopted a technique of ranging lines of stones along the contour on land suffering from, or threatened by, erosion. The lines of stone slow water run-off, increase water infiltration, trap dislodged topsoil and have helped revegetate heavily degraded land. Farming had become threatened, and because labor was available to carry out the work, this comparatively heavy investment in soil conservation and land improvement works made economic sense to farmers. Some 6,000 ha have now been 'treated' in this manner, and yields have increased by 15 to 30 percent. Labor cost are high and increasing, however, as rocks now have to brought from increasingly greater distances. The success of the stone contour bunds in the Yatenga Region could not be replicated in Mauritania's Affole mountains, where rainfall is much lower, slopes are steeper, and the population density far lower. This underscores the limitations to "technology transfer' and the critical importance of adapting "solutions" very carefilly to local agro-ecological and socio-economic conditions (Reij, 1988, p. 27).9 8.19 Kenya offers an example of a promising combination of conservation and new farming practices that increases vegetative cover and reduces the likelihood of severe erosion. Farmers are free to choose which practices to adopt and which trees to plant. Hundreds of thousands of smallholdings have been terraced by now, with farmers doing the work themselves (see box on p. 89). 8.20 There are a number of other simple but effective ways in which farmers' production systems can be made significantly more productive and sustainable, without increasing farmers' risks or the requirements for additional labor and/or capital beyond what the productivity gains will cover. Table 24 summarizes the results of a financial and economic analysis of many of these techniques under currently prevailing conditions in Nigeria (FAQ/World Bank Cooperative Programme, 1991). This analysis showed that many of these techniques are highly effective in reducing the decline of crop yields on continuously cropped land by reducing, to varying degrees, soil fertlity losses and erosion. Almost all of the techniques assessed showed high economic rates of return and financial rates of return of 10 percent and more. However, the pitfalls of attempting to introduce such techniques on a wide scale are also evident in these data. A few, such as stone-faced terracing and 9 Anoher intastiq dimeodon of the atone line technology wu observed on the Mo Plateau in Buddna Paso. There, womea do not own land and do not benefit direcl from to profits of their husbands' fields. They do, however, bonefit direty fom working on their collecdve field, which an 'borowed" fin the men, bc the yields am distibutd to sI puzticazt. Most wma won soon disuraed from buildig rock line. Te had labored hard to treat their fidd, but then often found tho men eclaimin theo improvod plats for their own crop prductin and fonring tho women to move again to another unreaed piece of lnd (Wanma and Saa, 1991, p.77). -86- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~oI~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.: ::.:valp ha Kpiy: 19~gu~o WiI*U@w~@ q~Ww~.ww loa4powu ww~4ItgQ ~e4~i -- :rn -.atlM :iil :beaMoO ~ ~iafio utiao oaci comvto .taw*y t~i eutyai-..:a~ :;:. .p ^.ihi*a :'ai :.my. . ..u . i 7UMI o Sadnt~tmoi. tli ~tMt hl pi Ma ..o ft>i ti .QQl W......-.....................................................k....... , : : : ,, vmcprovmuents pioft graingreerves arel eithert~d ucanprftbeo onl margt inially pof Aintakwble. Morever svtien inacilrateQ waofaretiurn of ~104Ma orSD 15peretmayw not ew sficint tso induce ianvyestmet b wiugh e unceraite alnd disootorte ad m .arke ~tste oface Howevr asthcst of somUMFv il deelgradtbionand hewmi? fiancia ed *er dtoh6dgo thes measures wi t increase. Know ledg trnsfr throughilad etensoia ond worer wi.lyl fid a tince asingly faoab lmieda reetion by farmers as thess cainge .iocc ush r.aab Thiisevid entin ,Uahe Kny aondth Burkinta Fasoas4esn repotedaoe4nfre netetnsoetraigadte platindi Ethidopi,an in. windbea estoabtlishment mtos protect admillet iedsi N~4igerd (FOnwIECA, 1992,w pp.WIf 10-11). ~ IHuau,19Zp. 4-ii 8mroemnt1o Hgrazin vresreiaeeihrupoiable ornfl onl mayprsou-a arginAllyc proesitable. Moreoer,aio evn partinacalar,aoitue oefireturns pofe 10hre1 percetmary nonsrit be sufficient, toanduc efcinveswtmentb faragmers whse privtcdisoun ratceersiv areldel watofbe ashihnsofferen and moremiz baecas iflrtof ithe thesigh unetIntiest aetnds dinsitortede marketsen theyfc.Hwvr,oasghe cmposts onfsiltderaation and mitr eronseraion rises labeyorb availabiit icresesy, asr effcnie polic res es agricsultfore more pnvrofiettable wilhin aonstucincreas eavsingl faorbl reetionyfrmger astruthrese change cchiur.Thsisrevimedent in theba Kenyian Berosiona (e.g. casenreourtebv, farmer,esalihn veeainvestmentoin stoetrrac9ingtandcreepng planting) ine Ethiopiae, andxnrwndbeak establishmeintsi to protectr millervtfision. Ngr(FOE 8.21 Highlyvariablder crtainfali monyiparts (oftu-ahlaiwranAfrica makeas) water consrvastiong tcnsraionues lma ey t be bot r leessacsry, more effective. Wandr laresstresfu fnorve the lenvironmn tand - 87 - utilization of runoff for farming (or other uses). A very common form of water harvesting involves collecting runoff from a large area by means of earthen or stone bunds and guide it through ditches or channels on to smaller areas where field crops or trees are grown. Another common traditional technique is waterspreading: diverting runoff frcnn seasonal streams or gullies to cultivated fields. By increasing the quantity of water available on cultivated land, these and other water harvesting techniques greatdy improve land productivity; they usually require little capital and are labor-using. Water harvesting has proven effective and successful, for example, in Burkina Faso's Yatenga Region and in Kenya's Baringo District.10 8.23 In many countries (e.g., Chad, Ethiopia, Malawi, Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, Uganda), the productivity of farm land can also be improved in a ma- i consistent with resource conservation objectives through irrigation development. Only about 5 million ha are irrigated in Sub-Saharan Africa today,1" about half by modem means and the rest by traditional small-scale methods. IThe additional area potentially suitable for irrigation is estimated at about 15 million ha (Barghouti and Le Moigne, 1990, pp. 9 & 13) - not much in terms of Sub-Saharan Africa's total potential farm area. Moreover, irrigation development in many parts of the continent would entail very high environmental costs in terms of increased threats from water-related human diseases and of irreversible damage to ecologically valuable floodplain ecosystems (ibd., p. 13). Nevertheless, in a number of countries, notably those of the Sahel, irrigation developmeat holds cnsiderable proise. 8.24 The emphasis should lie on inuiv o:: or communally mannged systems with development costs of US$2,000 per ha or less, which can be developed and maintained by individual farmers themselves or by farmers' jroups. Such low-cost schemes include irrigation from wells or pumps, controlled flooding, and small-scale development of inland valleys and flood plains. Such developments have often spread spontaneously. Good examples are the private small-scale schemes developed by Mauritanian farmers in the Senegal valley, the rapidly spreading development of small groundwater irrigation systems in northern Nigeria'sfadana areas (allr -al river valley bottoms), and shallow aquifer exploitation with low-ost tubewells and pumps in Chad and Niger (Brown and Nooter, 1992). riii) Livestock Production am; UNi7aton 8.25 Mixed farming systems, combining crop and livestock activities, show promise in meeting environmental sustainability criteria. Farm animals are an important link for recycling resources within the farming system and, in the case of draft animals, represent a major step towards farming system intensification and, through the provision of transport services, market orientation. Indeed, the stiUl largely unutilized potential for using animal traction in both farm operations and transport needs to be realized. Cattle acquisition and mainteace involve considerable capital expenditure, however, and are therefore likely to be feasible only for relatively better-endowed households. In '0 So Reij, Mulder and Begemann (1988) for an tensive review of tachnical, IvWiOtaL stfll, p na_c, _eo u sociological aspects of water havesting. Only e countries - Suan (1.75 million ha), Madagascar (0.96 million ha) nd Nigeria (0.85 milmn ha) - aount for mor than 70 peren of this toal (Barghouti and Le Moigs, 1990, p. 7). 2 Drown and Nooter (199) review a number of aiccs sma-scae irdigon scbms in the Sshw and idefy swva common chaotiansti: imple and low-cost technology; pivate and indul insbmd anageenbt; adequat infrai_ructe to faiciitate acesu to inputs an output market; active faer participation in projet design and implementation and high financial (cash) reurs to the famner (pp. x-xi). - 88 - any case, switching to animal draft power becomes economical only when the cost of hoe cultivation exce-ds the cost of the transition to animal power. This usually happens only with the emergence of continuous cultivation."3 Moreover, animal traction is generally adopted first to provide transport services, and only later for purposes of land preparation (Pingali et al., 1987). Maintaining draft animals will not be economically attractivc, to farmers if their sole use is in land preparation. This suggests that developing rural transport infrastructure - roads, tracks and trails suitable for animal- p 3wered traffic - is important to accelerate the incorporation of draft animals on a wide scale into rural economies and farming systems. In addition, upgrading rural transport activities - notably the movement of farm inputs, farm output, fuelwood, construction materials and water - from headloading to animal-powered means, will greatly reduce the pressure on women's time. 8.26 Nevertheless, there is good potential for greater incorporation of livestock components into existing farming systems. In many of the mountainous areas, this process is already well underway. Approaches and solutions will vary. The fill potential of sheep, goats, pigs and poultry has not been exploited in much of the region. Small ruminants, especially if herded together, are very efficient usets of a wide variety of forage and browse resources. They are less restricted by seasonal variations in feed resources and maintain their body weight far better throughout the year than cattle. They also withstand the effects of drought, even a prolonged cne, and recover far more quicldy from its impact than do cattle (FAO, 1991, pp. 28-36). Goats, pigs and poultry are likely to be more easily integrated into farm operations managed by women, because they tend to stay near the compound. Sheep present a different management issue because they require herding (and this may have implications for boys' school attendance). 8.27 In humid and sub-humid zones, the tsetse fly can be controlled through low-cost traps and spraying, but not eliminated. Priorities for promoting the integration of cattle into farming systems should be to popularize cattle breeds such as th, N'Dama which are tolerant to trypanosomiasis and at the same time to de ? transport and far-m equipment which such animals can power. Also important in the suo-humid zone, where cattle are concentrated, will be the development of fodder banks to provide feed reserves for the dry season; analysis in Nigeria has shown this to be potentially quite profitable (Table 24). 8.28 In the drier cultivated zones, the integration of catfle into sedentary crop farmers' production systems will generate increasing pressure on the available pasture and forage resources, leading to stiffer competition and potential conflicts with transhumant pastoralists whose herds graze on crop stubble and bushy faUows during the dry season. The pastoralists' difficulties are further exacerbated by the increasing development of river valley bottoms in many parts of the Sahel and Sudan for cropping, often year-round by means of small-scale irrigation facilities, because this closes off essential migration routes and feed resources for their herds during the dry season. Improved land allocation between pastoralists and farmers to permit both to survive would be desirable, but no effective means of achieving this has been found as yet. Better land use planning and appropriate land tenure arrangements would be needed. 8.29 Traditional pastoralists are very efficient users of the meager rangeland resources in the aiid and ;emi-arid zones. They possess an enormous knowledge and understanding of the desert and savanna ecologies in which they live and upon which their economies depend. Their husbandry of land, water, vegetative and animal resources and their migratory movements are highly skilled, '3 Te nioh fiom hoe to plow Winags usualy modvated by the dedi to e4wpnd the area cuoivatad or to econom_A an te labor reqird for land pnpaation (Pingali et aL, 1987, p. 104). - B9 v complex and organized, reflecting generations of careful observation, experimentation and adaptation. Their livestock production systems are, as recent studies have demonstrated, extremely productive. They utilize the marginal resources to which they have access not only very efficiently, but also in a manner that is environmentally sustainable over time. Traditional pastoralists produce as much protein per hectare as do ranches in areas with similar rainfall in Awntralia and the United States - but with vastly lower capital inputs (Bass, 1990; Odhiambo, 1991, pp. 79-80; Independent Commission on International Humanitarian Issues, 1985). 8.30 But the potential for increasing the output and productivity of pastoralist production systems is low. Moreover, the most critical aspect of their traditional resource management system mobility - is under increasingly severe pressure as sedentary farmers appropriate land resources for cropping, close off vital migration routes and seasonal feed sources, and lay claim to scarce water resources. Forcible (and often violent) prevention of herd movement across state borders as well as armed raids on herds to procure food supplies for rival factions in civil wars further threaten pastoralists' production systems and way of life. Overgrazing is acute around public waterholes and urban centers and a major cause of environmental degradation. In these regions, water resource development and utilization require a refocusing of efforts to develop a network of more widely dispersed wells tapping shallow aquifers. At the same time, water and range resources should be placed under local communities' control and management to help prevent excessive concentration of livestock.1' integrated water/livestock/forestry management is rw,.ired instead of investment and policy efforts which stress one objective to the detriment of overall efficiency and/or environmental sustainability. 8.31 To improve the incentives for livestock production, the lioukages from rural producers to urban consumers of meat and milk need to be strengthened. Several eo"-,tries in Sub-Saharan Africa, including Kenya and Tanzania, are now developing cooperative dairy collection and marketing systems, similar in some respects to the highly successful Indian model. Other countries, such as Ghana and Nigeria, are considering to do the same. Restrictions on cross-border trade in live cattle shodld be eliminated to improve producer incentives and simultaneously consumer access to meat. Private abattoirs should be licensed (and regularly inspected) to provide market outlets for livestock producers and to serve large urban concentrations of demand for meat. The provision of veterinary services should be increasingly left to the private sector. National animal health services should concentrate on regulating private veterinarians, organizing and subsidizing mass vaccinations, and undertaking other emergency measures. In the more remdte pastoral areas, improved livestock care should be provided through 'para-vets" compensated through commissions on veterinary drug sales. In all areas, agricultural extension workers should be made fully competent in improved animal husbandry, forage production and animal traction. (IV) inputs 8.32 For environmental as well as cost reasons, emphasis should be placed on the use of organic ferdlizers. The integration of livestock into farmers' production systems is especially important in this regard. Similarly, disease and pest control efforts should emphasize cultural and biological controls."5 To support thL, subsidies on inorganic fertilizers and pesticides should be 14 Ibis arument is well devloped in Shanmuguatam ea aL (1991). G atdhad and Wag. (1983) discuu a variety of posibiitie. for biologial contro of azicul petu, and a subaant body of fuer mearch findigr ha bee acumla the. See also Singh (1990). - 90 - removed. Needed are pest- and disease- . resistant varieties, as weJl as cultivation _ methods and intercropplng and crop rotation =. = systems that reduce the spread of pests and pP diseases. Some positive results in thbis field i . j-g w have been achieved, for example, by IITA. ** i w * m kiiW b interated pest management (1PM) programs for rice and other tropical crops have been - u . . i developed that minime the need for ch1mlcal - l s, . at- . pesticides, yet many governments continue to provide substantial subsidies on chemical pesticides that reduce farmers' incentives to adopt such techniques. Past efforts at biocontrol of pests have focused on predators and parasitoids of insects, but research is now also being directed at the development of biopesticides to replace chemical pesticides and of plant pathogens to replace herbicides. Research in aU these areas deserves strong donor support. 8.33 Chemical fetizers and pesticides 7 7,--,7 wil be important, even essential, components 0 n of intensified cropping systems. But they are s - O - _ costly in terms of foreign exchange, and their W. 2 subsidization discourages the use of available ..u....... ZA o f . a d and less expensive alternatives. Policy and O3b4 Puns infrastructureconstraintsto the use of chemical - - - - farm inputs need to be removed, however. There are no gains to be obtained from shifing . ....d.. to an anti-chemicals bias in agricultural policy. 13 t eZs,g 8.34 Improved agricultural tools and equipment are essential. Many small . -¢ ; s mappropriate technology' projects supported by = = r voluntary agencies have successfully :. ~ introduced simple yet effective devices that. require little maintenance and are cheap and .- - .- easy to use. Equipment for milling, shelling, . dehusldng, initial conditioning and processing W _ of crops and conservation of seeds offers many benefits in terms of raising productivity and * - f allowing farm women to spend more time on other tasks. Small carts, wheelbarrows and bicy., S could substantally reduce the drudgery anid tlim.e reqiiured to t1amport 91 a) agricultural produce and Inputs both on the kum and to markets. These innovations have been largely neglected outside programs and projects supported by NGOs. They deserve far more emphasis in research and extension programs as well as in endeavors to promote local artisanal and small-scale industry.' 6 A Bank-wVppod ltnapoit project in ace i moving idu thi dieon it uppoit t lod namwfa of bicycla, bicyolo tmlr ad whebarow am, woikig w cal NOOn, thior acquinti by loal womma underahiho-puh ryido linked wit a b4-teiva rd oactio an mantenane ad too plantMig program (Word Dankw 1990.I). - 91 - (s) Agro-Foresty 8.35 From an enviromnental and agriculttural perspective, agro-forestry holds high promise. There are a variety of techniques and approaches for different agro-ecological conditions and production systems which can increase farm productivity and Incomes and simultaneously improve the prospects for environmental sustainability of rural production systems (Nair, 1990). Indeed, a multitude of agro-forestry systems and practices are already in use in different parts of Sub-Saharan Africa (Cook and Grut, 1989). Utilizing indigenous trees and shrubs, these are appropriate, low-cost, low-risk and high-reurn means for maintaining soil fertility, improving soil structure, recycling water and nutrients from lower soil strata, combating soil erosion, and providing secure supplies of fuel, fruits, fodder, mulches, building and fencing materials, and the like."7 Increased supply of tree products from agro-forestry will help preserve the remaining forest resources. 8.36 Whether agro-forestry efforts should be based on individual or some form of communal planting will need to be determined at each sik and with each community. Farm forestry is likely to be more readily incorporated by farmers into their production system in densely populated areas where common forests are no longer available and wood needs mu:t b9 met from the farm or w12ere wood fetches a good market price. This is already happening in parts of East Africa: there may now be more trees in Rwanda than at independence, even though the natural forests have all but disappeared. 8.37 If trees are to play a greater role in soil conservftion and agricultural production, it must be in the farmed area, through agro-forestry on farmers' fields. This can take many forms: shade trees in and around living areas; live (wood-producing) fences replacing dead (wood-onsuming) fences around fields and homesteads; and trees and shrubs planted very closely in lines along the contours of sloped fields to prevent soil erosion. Cocoa, coffee, rubber and tea are valuable not only as cash crops, but also as environmentally important components in agro-forestry systems. More species should be added, especially trees that produce fiuit, nuts or fodder. Trees can also diversify ihe basis of food production In semi-arid areas where wind is a threat to farming through desiccation and/or eolian erosion, windbreaks can be very beneficial. Appropriately designed and managed multipurpose windbreaks of mixed species and heights are particularly attractive, since they will also yield sustainable flows of fuelwood and/or other tree products for the local peoplk.1' In humid areas, multi-story farming may be desirable, in which various trees, shrubs and crops of various heights are intercropped to provide total and continuous ground cover and a variety of micro- climates. In humid and sub-humid areas, alley-cropping - a variation of traditional agro-forestry practices adapted to sedentary farming - may be effective and adopted by farmers, if the labor requirements involved can be made to fit actual on-farm labor availability. Crops are grown in 4-8 m alleys between rows of leguminous trees such as Leucaena or Glrickla, with the prunings providing fuelwood, stakes and fodder, or nitrogen-rich mulch for fertilizer. Agro-forestry systems also hold 17 TM. preseneo of Acada albfda, a legumino_ t commonly fund in fied mown to millat, aorghum or groundt in mwch of the Shlo-Sudanian Zone, conudtently incm tho yield of the asociat field crops. The te ha many appealing fa .. On u that it dop im foliage during the ainy eason. CARE bepan t Mjjia Valley Windbreak Project in Niger in 1975. FaPum havo now establ;e some 350 ilomete of windbreas to protet about 3,000 ha of zainfed millet and oghum fied. Crop yie in prtected fidm havo boen 15 to 23 percent higher than in neighboring unproctd field.- Onc fully tblmhed, the annual utaable yied of fimwood from tho A 2adl indica used in theme windbreaks is about 5 kg per tree. Spaoed 4 mdtre apsat, 400 m of double-row windbreaks provido 1 ton of fudlwood annuary (Nair, 1990, p. 45). Mhe sed pods of Mada scorladesd, also used in windbab in Niger, am mold for ue in leat tunng (Ib, p. 45). - 92 - considerable promise in the context of buffer zone development around environmentally valuable forest stands that should remain under protection (para. 10.15). 8.38 Agro-forestry investments will not be undertaken unless there are adequate incentives at the farm level to produce trees for own use or for the market. The emergence of si;ch incentives depends on a combination of factors. Climate, stage of deforestation, institutiona1 arrangements, tenurial conditions, effectiveness of forestry extension and other factors all are important (Barnes, 1990a; 1990b) - along with pricing. If trees are to be grown for sale as fuelwood or construction material, it must be profitable. Such incentives are gradually emerging. As populations grow and trees are felled, fuelwood becomes scarcer, and this scarcity creates a market value for fuelwood. However, the market for fuelwood is developing too slowly for the reasons discussed earlier. The development of fuelwood markets will be accelerated if: cutting in protected forest areas is restricted; farmers are not restricted or licensed/taxed in marketing fuelwood they produce on their farms; nurseries are established to produce appropriate species; research and extension services incorporate tree farming as a major theme; and land tenure reform provides ownership of forests to farmers and local communities, so that they are more likely to invest in forests rather than simply mine them for fuelwood. If appropriate price signals are to be developed, fuelwood must not be obtainable as a free good. Provided the appropriate species are used, agro-forestry techniques can, however, be very profitable in many areas because of their potential to generate a combination of benefits (fuelwood, poles, fodder, fruits, and associated crop yield increases). 8.39 Economic pricing of woodfuels is critical to encourage conservation and interfuel substitution. Pricing policies based on taxing incoming supplies would encourage economies in the use of woodfiels in urban areas (UNDP/World Bank ESMAP, 1988). Such policies can also provide a way to raise revenues that could be used to improve the forestry services (Falloux and Mukendi, 1988). Higher taxes could be levied on fuelwood coming from open access areas and lower taxes on fuelwood coming from wood plantations and private plots. 8.40 In many regions, there are significant socio-cultural obstacles to widespread tree farming, at least in the short run. In Kenya's Kakamega District, for example, women are not allowed to plant trees because this would undermine their husbands' authority; they are subjected to superstitious threats of barrmnmess or the death of their husbands (Aloo, 1985, p. 28). In many communities, trees have rarely been delibeately planted - even where their utility is recognized and they are protected and prized for their contribution to livelihood systems. Trees may in fact be igarded as an obstacle to crop cultivation, especially where tenurial considerations (e.g., separation of usufractual rights to land and to trees) or technology aspects (e.g., animal or mechanized ploughing) are important. In some countries, because all forest land is owned by the state, people fear that if they plant trees their land will revert to the government. In parts of the Sahel, farmers are unwilling to plant certain trees because they are on the forest department's protected list, and to crop or prune them would require going through tedious procedures to prove they own the land and planted the trees and to obtain a cutting permit (rimberlake, 1986, p. 56). 8.41 It is important to involve ilie local women in any projects that concern fuelwood production, provision and use. Men and women almost always have vastly different views concerning the utility of community or farm forestry activities (Molnar and Schreiber, 1989). In Senegal, the men in the village councils planned to sell as poles the timber from community woodlots, which had in fact been established to provide fuelwood for local households and to reduce local women's work load (Dankelman and Davidson, 1988, p. 54). Where women are actively involved, chances of success are high. In The Gambia, for example, the National Women's Bureau and the Forestry Department promoted the establishment of woodlots-cum-orchards managed by village -93 - women's groups, and these are now producing locally significant quantities of fruits and vegetables as well as fuelwood (Mrenha, 1985, p. 56; Dankelman and Davidson, 1988, p. 21). Where women face traditional restrictions concerning the planting of trees, careful investigation may reveal possibilities, acceptable under local norms, to plant certain species of brush that are suitable for fodder and/or fuel. 8.42 Several very successful piograms in Kenya are based on strong involvement of local women. One of the best known and most successful non-governmental afforestation programs is the Green Belt Movement, started in 19'7 by the National Council of Women of Kenya (Maathai, 1988). Another successful program is that of the Kenya Energy Non-Governmental Organization (KENGO), an association of over 200 NGOs dealing with energy issues, which includes a number of women's groups and organizations. KENGO is active in the promotion of fuel-saving stoves as well as in reforestation with indigenous trees. Information on medical, cultural, ecological and economic values of trees is collected from local women and passed on to women's groups through workshops, exhibitions, mass media, publications, etc. The Kenya Woodfuel Development Programme promotes a self-sustaining system of tree planting to supply fuelwood. Based on surveys of agroforestry practices and cultural background of local people, its approach accommodates indigenous expertise with traditional beliefs and taboos. Women are especially encourged to formulate solutions that will not conflict with traditional values (Chavangi, Engelhard and Jones, 1985; Leach and Mearns, 1988, pp. 142-145). fvi) Stoves da Save Fuel and Women's lime 8.43 A second major thrust of ongoing ;. efforts to address the fuelwood and household ,.- energy problems aims at improving the efficiency ......wi of energy use: slowing the rise in fuelwood bima:dw consumption by introducing more fiel-efficient == wood and charcoal stoves. Most rural women m _ ; Sub-Saharan Africa cook on some version of the P g a-. three-stone stove or on other primitive stoves whose energy efficiency is 10 percent or less. Various technical improvements have been advanced, tested, promoted - and usually not adopted by the women for whom they were intended. On the whole, little headway had been made by the mid-1980s with attempts to popularize fuel-efficient stoves or stoves using non-wood energy sources (e.g., solar cookers): few programs had distributed more than 5,000 to 8,000 stoves (WRUIIED, 1987). 9 _ .~ ~ ~ ~ ~~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ f.v. .. . .. .. .s ., J.>..z.. .. ....: 2!..i-i j- *goNs -a..f. : .; . . i B ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~...6"... .......:AW -. w...r ;.; XseiX y o w * tei . . *-t . '. .... .... ..w .aS 4w~uc £ O1W~ 4woTyi~ thsetmblua *@. hs ws otwiv tso ,itilptiu s te od- oi -94 - 8.44 The reasons for failure have varied. The driving motive of those developing and seeking to promote new stoves has usually been to save fuel, but women in the "target population' have often had a number of other, and frequently overriding, concerns which the designs proffered did not address to their satisfaction. Cultural and dietary reasons are important, as are cost, local availability of materials, convenience of use, cooking time requirements, suitability for local cooking implements and utensils, suitability for different fuels and a Wome in oma~wa~ in marn~ oori tovariety of other factors. Women may be averse oookstWq =to to cooking outside. The stove's capacity may ......... ..I be too small to cook for large families or to ....... . prepare several dishes simultaneously. Solar . flot= izI~ bence~, ~ t~ ~ ~ cookers are useless in the evening when meals thes ~athe~ tbas aa-t Mi; (M~Ina4 t989,are prepared. Stoves are used not only for cooking, but also heating; etc. (M. Carr, 1985, pp. 133-134). Other important reasons for non-adoption include: unaffordable building cost; construction materials not locally available; drastic changes required in cooking habits and cultural taboos; size inappropriate to needs; design inappropriate to multiple purposes, including water heating, space heating, and smoke generation to repel insects under house roof; cooking time requirements; etc. Complications also tend to arise because it is often men who buy the stoves while women operate them (Elnur, 1985, p. 36). 8.45 It is imperative to begin stove .. ... . . . ... promotion efforts with careful studies of local _ . dietary and cooking habits and practices. It is .- It -th - A - particularly important to involve women from the ..... start. In the Sahel, simmered stews are the u e an-w* mainstay of the diet, and a lot of wood is used to l ,d Tt prepare these on a three-stone stove. Whatever ' , t A -s replacement is recommended, it must meet a number of conditions (e.g., suitability for cooking _ , ,~ _ = . practices, affordability, transportability,uaipui tfl 1peu.Mo wr repairability, replaceability, smoke may be s">P t I - t d desirable, etc.) Examples of successful programs O.W . tU i .*IOd which have involved the targeted women from the l.jPOjdthuaata inception of the program include: the USAID- _ 52 supported Kenya Renewable Energy Development Project; KENGO's cookstove projects in Kenya (the ceramic Jiko and the Knw Mbii stoves); the Women and Energy Project initiated in 1984 with GTZ-support by Maendeleo Ya Wanawake in Kenya; the ILO/World Bank Stoves Feasibility Project in Ethiopia which focused on urban women in Addis Ababa; the Ban-ak-Suuf stoves program in Senegal; the program in Burkina Faso based on the stove design of the Burkina Energy Institute; and the portable metal Mai Sanki stove in Niger.19 8.46 For urban users, reliable, economically accessible and appropriately priced alternative energy sources, such as kerosene and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), must be developed. Low- income urban users may need assistance with appropriate credit schemes to purchase stoves and appliances which utilize these fuels. 19 40,000 of thea sve have ben pduced and sold, replacing tradiinal wood aovo, and ue have been able to ==duo their expenditur on fuelwood by 30 perent, thu recoveng t cowt of the dove in two months. - 95 - B. Policy and Institutional Aspects 8.47 Although environmentally benign technologies of the kind discussed above have been tested both widely and successfully in Sub-Saharan Africa, they have generally not been adopted by large numbers of farmers. The 'imported" technologies involving fertilizers, pesticides and herbicides, HYVs and farm mechanization have not fared much better. The reasons for non-adoption vary, but the basic problem has almost always been a poor fit with the resources available to farmers, combined with farmers' risk aversion. Inappropriate price, tax and exchange rate policies, inadequate rural infrastructure, inefficient marketing systems, and poor agricultural support services have all contributed to keeping resources out of the reach of farmers and to increasing the risks inherent in innovation. In this situation, and as long as uncultivated land remained available for clearing and cultivation, it made sense to farmers to cultivate new land rather than to use more labor-intensive and/or financially costly production methods. This continues to be the case in much of Sub-Saharan Africa. 8.48 These problems have been more apparent with respect to 'imported' technologies - not only because these have tended to be the ones promoted most actively by governments and aid agencies alike, but also because these technologies have tended to require significant departures from familiar resource management and production techniques and in relative factor utilization. Placing greater emphasis on improving and adapting the types of techniques discussed above should considerably lower the adoption threshold. But a number of measures will be necessary to create a policy and institutional environment that is conducive, rather than inimical, to agricultural intensification and resource conservation. 8.49 Farmers require incentives and assistance to adopt yield-enhancing and soil-conserving technologies. Sustainable farming must be made profitable - and environmentally unsustainable practices must be made unprofitable. To promote the switch to environmentally sustainable farming, the cost of resource degradation and destruction must be increasingly shifted to farmers instead of being borne entirely by society at large and, in effect, by future generations. Privatizing the social costs of resource-depleting farming practices will discourage their use. Government policy must be such as to permit farmers to profit from switching to sustainable agriculture and to incur obvious costs if environmentally destructive methods are used. The major tools for this are: (a) land tenure reform, (b) economic policy that increases the profitability of market-oriented farming, and (c) agricultural services which help farmers through the transition to sustainable agriculture. ) Land Policy and Tenure Reform 8.50 It is essential to ensure the security of land tenure - to halt the erosion of security traditionally provided by customary tenure systems. Secure rights to land (individual or communal) are necessary to encourage management practices and investments that ensure sustainable use of a Uragile natural resource base. Over time, population pressure and agricultural intensification will make formal land titling necessary. The administrative machinery for land titling needs to be established to permit those seeking titles to obtain them. The tranition to full land titling will require more than a decade to achieve in most countries of Sub-Saharan Africa and should be undertaken only in response to demand from below, not as an imposition from above. In the interim, respect for traditional tenure systems 'neds to be codified. Judicial mechanisms for dealing with disputes between owners claiming traditional versus modem land rights are needed. Land laws and regulations should respect traditional tenure systems, permitting modern titles only when land is fairly purchased or acquired with the agreement of traditional owners. Women's tenurial/usufractal rights must be safeguarded, if not enhanced. Titles provided to groups for collective ownership should also -96 - be available. Kenya has begun this by providing land titles to group-owned ranches, with groups organized by clan. French aid and the World Bank are planning to experiment with community tides in several of the Sahel countries. Governments should divest themselves of most land, except parks, to individual or community owners. This would be a first step in inducing farmer landowners to conserve the land. 8.51 Local people and communities must be given a direct and tangible interest in the sustainable management of ranges and woodlands and in the conservation of forests and wildlife. Communities cannot be effective at managing their natural resources unless their authority is clearly established and recognized. In particular, the appropriateness of statutes vesting residual control over all land in the state should be re-examined. In return for legal title, the populations of forest and range lands must accept obligations for proper management of these areas. Economic incentives to conserve could be strengthened by allocating the benefits of forests and pastures to local populations in the form of logging, hunting and gathering rights in forest areas and exclusive grazing rights in pasture areas. Opening up new land for cropping in certain areas might be subject to heavy land taxes. Only by involving the local people as partners in conservation, with appropriate incentives, will conservation occur. rii) Agricultural Support Services 8.52 Urgenty needed are farm technology development and dissemination mechanisms that .. -.. .... . . are effective: agricultural research, extension, E. .... t.W education, and farm input supply. Each of these - a y io , zmol activities will have to incorporate the soil - - -a ... . ...... conservation, fertility management, agro-forestry, 0zad 0 W {A mo -- is - pest management and environmentally sustainable -' .. ..............O...... farming techniques identified above. There ae not - u a- d: many of these services anywhere in Sub-Saharan i . Africa that are working well, and virtually none e; an .web rW that are competent as yet in environmentally - i sustainable agriculture. i1i a e ac - roaaf iyato ug4w4 podnIMaa 8.53 Although there have been success yM = stories, agricultural research in Sub-Saharan Africa a m e has, on the whole, not performed well - largely i*xm because of weak goverment commitment and poor i , management, rather than inadequate funding. . i LO {sis, v W Externally financed projects have not provided the - - - 1 needed breakthrough as yet. To develop, testand and___________-___r__-_-_-___-- adapt technologies of the kind identified above, national agricultural research systems (NARSs) must be rehabilitated and given work programs relevant to the task. Most important will be strengthening national capacity to plan, manage and carry out research focused on the issues identified above. Both research and research management skills need to be developed. Faculties of agriculture, NGOs and the private sector should be drawn into the tffort. Aid donors should coordinate their efforts so that external aid strengthens NARSs in this endeavor. 8.54 Agricultural research in and for Sub-Saharan Africa needs to focus on the conditions and constraints that prevail in Sub-Saharan Africa and that determine the production environment of -97- . S...... .. ... . .. . . . ..... : .: ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.i.i ...::..". ... ,i,. **::,.... .. ..i...:v...W farmr in$ weo Sb-Saha Wrl ank Afria. Dirc~*t appwlication ofwof-h aad l technoiAflog imported froml otherni reioshat *lpafs rarely prove successful As ~omalre z~*ady notd Afian 80als need careful~ baa&n fagm ranfl iso unredict;eibgle, the oikelihood of drought in anyool~a given yeri high rand d~ry spells mSaycu atb~t~t anytimainth growing sason.ug*~J Morover, sinc the many diferen patterns of soniO~wl, elevation thmi.naspct ranfll, te dmpebrature and solarn trad~iato euti a nrosdvesqo go - The zical v micro-env~irAonmets stron edofmpasiseds to~r kber ha placed on lcbatin-secifsnticadapiv todulSon) For za*t~a the same resos rsarers nee toaIei pay. fa~r greataer atentionatpow the spntaneousa exermntainadadnaam eaidptation of f barmr themselves- becausethati wherld theka ralfne-tuoni ng oful te hnoloica innoations to farmers w complexr m agocloia ndscoecnmc odton M Sibe xeativ l991 Chambersw and Tu cltmi n, x 1991).Ihes sialmiarl vasut viarsietyof farmding sysbtems - inestiatedaactitots andee morei poorlyd understo~od soci o-teooi arranemens,c intudons n farmers n Su-l Safrharn Africa. Dotisretapliaioemntof oTheshigly4 technologyd imorend Fpcfrom othe regrioulusa hask rarel provred sucsfu.in Aytes already note,mfrcnitisoils nee capreful manageenttio,o ranfllis unpredctale the paallikeihodc ofdruh indvua any giveunyar fies high manddy spmuitels' mayd ocure ataystime in anthegrowIng srqeasn. Moreovrctionc btheemny differeolnt patendihs tofol televatin,e slope,raspec, ranfl s temp ea tured s ecologicioal miroenvrnents, striongdesmphsis nelaedso tohe spaifce agonologcat noion-secifinaomive resarach.eFristh same reasopns, rsarcer needto payctve ofa geater attentionyt tahe spountaneeus dexperimeNtAtion and adataio ofes farmers themselvsce bhecanensousethatisnwerbte ragcltr finetuningeof fagriculura Sahsk and etire . frmingasystemsion many commntiesheis chnole importan maniestaon othe enregin hasg rfagreclyturove suessearchA needead. nuhofthed bafricand soilsined resarefu mnssainablemet taisnaspec Tnh presallel existenc b of nivdrsidu and c ualc fienlers in mha cndounitriaeds lan uces systemis anpctheraional. thempratuen and sarict rion a bten resutoilnand aon r ighers tyore unedero tradoitioal tiroenurersys emts,isatird. mhssnestob lcdooaio-pcfcaatv resarciliat sharin thofm reasearch researher andxeriedntsonpya gether subjentioelvnt to tespontaineous experImentto ancaaptationt of fARmes tohundertlves mut-lecauethoat iswerifictheona ofinternational and hno lnational research priomers' omuelte agro-ecological and socio-eiofamronomintions oec stcharaers, pd Cheroueis an aTterens and to idevepmoe ojieteive a farmin systems Each cn nsu tose test andladap thehnlogyl undroit spciica conditions, but iut wltake tirmey ton rhehablitten andrl develtigatA s and orvthesre systey ton dirtoduce tecon ter nn of stana lenricusturiont andt eanitionsre range faricutr remsear c this reneededmuh oThe bil anonoapcpled redearcs oecinfstinale agricultureal thssaderefore needin tobeunetaemin maty themuntentieisonal Agpriutualt RaiesearchiCnters this) andecto someprle exitente by undiverities and researchg cientes in thenindustrialized'countries Rysegsiona andoither.aTiona colbraqetitionctand African regiona ntwork ofn rsandrcghers aoree unededrt tagricuonl tue.uesse satid 8.565h capioablityerc profrNtiSs muto uneratae multhesei-ocationa erificationd sofneraioenalman nhaacteionlrsearcs, findingsion farmersmils and dvlpethobecanlyivs of farmrs counstryEaihcontsy needstob stengthrernedgTee is anriulurglentrc needeto idetif more ithenbsive armngple rsysemswhch can sustainal soigfrticlityr andl sthructure aned obnservaensoil miture. Betateriontegracutionl ofliestrck aendeof agrofo restarchnt farmingso systems' wielldb iprandth inalthis regfard.eLow-const,alow-risk techiqes - 98 - found effective in similar environments elsewhere need to be tested and, if found suitable, promoted. S4 ?-t t Agricultural scientists must learn to fit their = = research to farmers' real situations. An intimate 0 d _ k understanding of local constraints such as soil pa_ conditions, pests and diseases, moisture variation, it* 4a v pa - seasonal labor shortages and the gender aspects of W - - . - - - farming systems is essential. New varieties must 0 4 X be tested under zero- and low-input conditions and ; t i a in mixed and inter-cropped situations before being _4i q X dily, _ o ff recommended to farmers through the extension WM= ka - services. Appropriate improved drought-resistant 0 $ . and short-duration varieties of millet and sorghum are urgently needed. Indeed, work on these and . - other important indigenous food crops (roots, - b ad p g, and lhcd tubers, plantains) has long been neglected. Also iuooaded, auah atti,'Y,,.- ,i foe neglected has been social science research which - should be an integral part of adaptive research (World Bank, 1987c). Research on biological soil fertility maintenance, especially nitrogen fixation and the ecology of microbes in the soil, should complement soil conservation efforts (Brown and Wolf, 1985, p. 43). 8.57 Extension services that effectively transfer sustainable agriculture technologies to farmers are critical. Equally essential is the need for extension services to ascertain and transmit information to researchers regarding farmers' needs, problems and constraints. Farming systems research is not likely ever to succeed in covering the vast diversity of micro-ecologies of Sub-Saharan Africa or the countless permutations of crop and tree combinations that farmers use. Extension services therefore also need to facilitate farmers' own experimentation and the transmission of indigenous adaptations from farmer to farmer. If extension services are to offer farmers the best techniques to suit their specific circumstances, they must provide 'menus' of options for farmers to choose from - rather than deliver prescriptive composite "technology packages." Farmers will then experiment to adapt research findings and extension recommendations to their own specific set of needs ana constraints. Extension services must collaborate with their respective NARSs in maintaining a continuous two-way flow of information between farmers and researchers and ensuring that research is geared to farmers' needs and meets the criteria of sustainability and profitability. 8.58 Given the high degree of gender-specificity in farming operations, the widespread prevalence of gender-segregated farming and the increasing incidence of female-headed households and female-managed farms, it is imperative that extension services be far more effectively oriented towards reaching women farmers. Steps to accomplish this have been initiated in a number of countries (see, for example, Murphy, 1989; Saito and Weidemann, 1990). They include: deployment of more female extension staff, properly trained and equipped; use of more female contact farmers and of women's groups to facilitate the delivery of extension messages and to obtain feedback; training of extension workers to be aware of, and responsive to, women's responsibilities, needs and constraints; and adoption of special measures to reach women farmers. The latter include, for instance, timing of visits, selection of crops and impact points, and adaptation of technology messages to women's time and resource constraints, to their production objectives and risk perceptions. 8.59 Unified agricultural extension systems are more cost-effective and appropriate to farmers' needs than the multiple subsector-specific or single-commodity services currently operating in many - 99 - countries, often supported by different aid donors. Such consolidation has been effected successfilly in Kenya, Zimbabwe, Togo, Mali and Burkina Faso and is now being implemented in Ghana and Nigeria. 8.60 The content of agricultural education will need to change. It must focus on training for low-input, labor-intensive environmentally sustainable small-holder agriculture under tropical and sub- tropical conditions, rather than for high-input, mechanized farming more suited to temperate climates. This will require teachers competent in these fields as well as appropriate texts and other teacking materials. Most important, it will require refocusing agricultural education in most SSA countries and widening it to include natural resource and environmental concerns. 8.61 Research and extension services, along with private voluntary organizations, should be active in developing and testing prototypes of inputs and investment goods consistent with sustainable agriculture (new hand tools, animal-drawn equipment, crossbred cattle, village- or farm-level grain storage facilities, more efficient stoves, hand pumps, small-scale agricutural processing technology, trees for agro-forestry, organic fertilizers, etc.). These can subsequently be produced and distributed by the private sector. (iif) Exchange Rate, Trade, Fiscal and Pricing Policies 8.62 Agricultural intensification requires that agricultural production be sufficiently profitable to induce and sustain this process. Profitability depends heavily on the policy environment which creates the incentives and disincentives to which farmers respond. Past government interventions have generally tended to turn the internal terms of trade against agriculture. Generally, the best policy has been found to be a relatively liberal market-based price system, with a fairly equilibrated exchange rate,a and open entry to marketing and processing. Price stability might be pursued in the face of international price fluctuations through a system of variable export and import duties. 8.63 There also is a need to provide positive incentives for sustainable use of natural resources and negative incentives to reduce their inefficient use and prevent their destruction. Promoting environmentally benign and sustainable agriculture may therefore require taxing of environmentally unsustainable practices. It may also be advisable for society to assume some of the costs involved in moving farmers from unsustainable to sustainable production systems - in recognition of the socially desirable externalities involved (see para. 8.10). rhere may be a case for selective and temporary subsidizing of such activities as tree nurseries and seedling distribution, distribution of more efficient prototype stoves, watershed stabilization and soil conservation, water harvesting and small-scale irrigation. Conversely, farm machinery powered by fossil fuels, logging, land clearing, and fuelwood extraction from public forests and woodlands should be taxed. 8.64 Subsidies influence decisions to employ commercially available inputs (e.g., chemical fertilizers, farm machinery, seedlings). The effects of subsidies on the environment can be either beneficial or detrimental. Input subsidies compensate somewhat for low output prices received by farmers and, hence, may favor conservation - at least on farms producing for the market. On the other hand, artificially lowering the price of inputs through subsidization may encourage the use of 2 In the couaMs of the West Afian Sahelo4udanian Zone, amp outo doition make th recommded agrulum tensification and tifa vities mply not aficiwy productive, bdow the 800 mm isohye, to mak their wideprad adoption fancaly wothwhie. Mote ralisic echange ae regimes would make des tochiquas mom aumacve (Gore and Steds, 1987, pp. 31-32). - 100- economically and environmentally inappropriate technologies. For instance, excessive or inappropriate use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, stimulated by heavy subsidies, can do much environmental harm. Temporary subsidies may bejustified and beneficial for environmentally benign inputs - to popularize a new technology. But in the long term, subsidization of any input is difficult to justify. 8.65 Subsidies for basic anti-erosion activities (especially engineering measures) are frequently advocated - but where such policies have been implemented, they have often had very undesirable effects. Lack of subsequent maintenance, lack of local identification with the effort, and disruption of local incentive systems (e.g., wage labor markets, investment versus maintenance attitudes) have been the most common and serious problems. Moreover, as noted above, engineering measures are rarely sufficient by themselves and must be combined with changes in on-farm soil and water management practices; these latter are often ignored when attention is focused on engineering works and subsidy administration. Finally, engineering is costly and is rarely the most effective technique. Even if subsidies are to be considered for such initial investments (and there are common investments that may be needed, such as runoff evacuation channels and water storage/harvesting structures), subsidization must be carefully thought through in all its consequences. (Iv) Local Insttumons: Involving the People 8.66 If farmers are to innovate and adopt sustainable agricultural production and resource management techniques, they need to be given more responsibility for their own affairs. They should be allowed to associate freely in farmer-managed cooperatives and groups, to market their own produce, to own and manage their land. Tenurial security must be ensured. People will only cooperate in environmental resource conservation efforts if they have a stake in the resources to be conserved and incentives to manage their environment more prudently. Administrative regulations will not suffice - even if enforcement mechanisms were to be substantially strengthened. Responsibility and authority to manage range land should be vested with pastoral associations. Forest dwellers should be given responsibility to manage the forests where they live and where they should be assured of priority, or even exclusive, rights to hunt, gather and carry out artisanal logging. In return, they should be entrusted with the obligation and requisite authority to protect these forests against farmer encroachment, poaching and ilegal logging and fuelwood extr gon. If the state is less intrusive and local people are given greater responsibility, people will tend to take more care in conserving their environment (presuming that the other actions discussed here are also taken). 8.67 Resource management interventions must emphasize the social arrangements among people as they interact with each other and their natural resource base, with particular attention to incentives and sanctions for influencing individual behavior. '[Every] aspect of the inter-relationship between society and nature plays a critical role and if one of them fails then the whole situation !s likely to be severely affected' (Timberlake, 1986, p. 42). Natural resource projects that do not actively involve the local users wiUl fail. National, and even regional, governments cannot effectively manage local natural resources. ITe sheer scale of the soil and water conservation problems faced in many countries dictates the need to create the necessary conditions for local people and communities to take matters into their own hands again. Programs and projects must become more concerned with the people using natural resources and less preoccupied with the commodities around which projects have traditionally been organized. An essential ingredient in program and project formulation and implementation is the existence of incentives and sanctions for influencing the individual behaviors of those who live in the area and who depend for their livelihood and survival on the natural resources in question (Bromley and Cernea, 1989). - 101 - 8.68 Traditional land and natural resource management systems may not have been ideal, but their subtleties need to be realistically assesse4. There is the danger that overzealous, well-meaning efforts Mil destroy an imperfect but fuaiekoning system, only to find that the substitute hardly functions at all. Pilot operations in land management are already under way in a number of countries and hold promise of success. The existence of pastoral associations in Senegal and Niger, village land management and water conservation efforts in Burkina Faso and the comits du village in Mali have demonstrated that careful attention to the needs and practices of local people can generate enthusiasm for positive action in rural areas. These examples suggest that some governments are beginning to have the political confidence to relinquish control over resources to local groups as well as the political determination to enact legislation that will support such initiatives. They also show that local communities wan improve their situation when they believe their efforts will pay off (Falloux and Mukendi, 1988). 8.69 Whether governments will be willing or able to recognize or create centers of authority and initiative in rural areas remains to be seen. Some governments are already making firm commitments in that direcdon. Smaller organizational units, such as village or pastoral associations, are better equipped to manage their own resources. Recognizing this is a prerequisite for implementing the strategies aimed at improving production systems and land use. These local associations might provide a far more effective basis for rural development and rational resources management than many other previous efforts which imposed extnal institutions on rural societies. Group action is deeply rooted in most societies of Sub-Saharan Africa - for managing land, for cooperative marketing and input supply, for pooling savings and financing credit, for pooling labor for critical tasks at critical times. To succeed, cooperation has to be voluntary and managed from below. Grassroots management is one way to assure this. Alternatively, cooperatives can be based on customary social structures and groups, as they often are. Governments can provide technical assistance, such as advice on accounting, legal rights, and technology, and should provide for legal arrangements that facilitate the creation, recognition and dissolution of cooperatives. 8.70 What is most needed is popular participation and action at the village and community level, using and developing local skills and responding to the particular characteristics of each area. This is the single most important lesson that has been learned (Shaxson et al., 1989, pp. 12-14). Identifying concrete practical mechanisms to foster popular support is critical. Grassroots organizations and local NGOs have a particularly valuable role to play in this respect. Channeling financial resources, to the extent these are needed, to and througb them is important, but more important will be meetng their urgent need for institutional strengthening and training in such critical areas as program planning, management and leadership skills, accounting, financial planning and management, and information sharing (Newman, 1992). Governments, international aid agencies, and international NGOs alike wil need to find ways to provide this critical support. IX. INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT, MIGRATION, AND URBANIZATION A. Infrastructure Development 9.1 The most basic elements of rural physical infrastructure comprise rural roads, markets in rural towns, and rural water supply facilities. In certain areas, irrigation and drainage facilities would also be essential to facilitate agricultural production. At a somewhat higher level of development, it also includes rural electrification as well as telecommunications facilities and access to electronic mass media. Defined more broadly, rural infrastructure also includes educational, health and sanitation facilities. Given the critical importance of such facilities - or, more importantly, of the services they provide - for the development and maintenance of "human capital" in rural areas, these are indeed crucial in the context of the Nexus. 9.2 The importance of basic rural infrastructure for agricultural development is well established. Recent research in Asia found that in villages with better infastructure, fertilizer costs were 14 percent iower, wages were 12 percent higher, and crop output was 32 percent higher (lPPRI, 1991). No comparable analysis is available for Sub-Saharan Africa as yet, but similar findings would be likely. Research in a number of SSA countries has shown that adequate transport links to product markets stimulate agricultural intensification - even where population densities are comparatively low (Pingali et al., 1987). Farmers with access to good infrastructure use land more intensively, adopt efficient techniques and modern inputs, produce more for the market, and employ more labor. 9.3 Infrastructure development also has a major impact on the productivity of rural labor and on key determinants of fertility, such as infant mortality and female education. Roads provide access to health facilities and schools, and water supply schemes and sanitation facilities have significant impact on health and on labor productivity. Education, health, water supply and sanitation facilities and services are particularly important in terms of their impact on female education and on infant and child mortality - both critical determinants of fertility preferences (see Chapters m and VlI). I) Transport 9.4 Transport infrastructure is essential for intensifying agricultural production. Remunerative output prices accelerate the pace of agricultural intensification - provided they are transmitted to the farm. Incentives to increase production and marketed output are blunted if the physical barriers and, hence, the costs of moving goods to and from local markets are too high. This is equally true of the national transport system linking local markets to cities and to ports. 9.5 Rural transport infrastructure in particular is highly deficient in most countries, and throughout most of Sub-Saharan Africa distances from villages to major towns and all-weather roads are substantial. Rural road density has been estimated at about 32 m/km2 in Western Africa and 36 i/km:2 in Eastern and Southern Africa. Moreover, Nigeria, Cameroon and C6te d'Ivoire account for more than half the rural roads in Western Africa, and Tanzania, Zalre, Zimbabwe and Madagascar have more than two thirds of the rural roads in Eastern and Southern Africa between them (Riverson, Gaviria, and Thriscutt, 1991, p. 4).1 In Nigeria, with its fairly dense network of Of ocim nealmt road dauit alm vazy conudetl wihi oauti, being geneay hie in awh highaW populati damitLie uad poductivo nabunl uumm endowmenb. In Knya, for ezamp.l, dual moad danq nu gu fiom 400.500 m4lamn to lIm than 30 mkm2 (Rivaeon, wavidr, and Mhiw 1991, p. 4). - 103 - rural roads by African standards, rural road density today is about 90 m/km2, barely equal that of India in 1951; a reasonable target density, based on Indian areas with comparable population densities would be 730 m/km2 (ibid.). Where fural roads exist, they often are poorly maintained. Indeed, maintenance standards have deteriorated considerably during the 1980s: 42 percent of unpaved roads in West Africa and 47 percent in East Africa were in poor condition in 1988, compared with 28 percent and 44 percent, respectively, in 1984 (Carapetis, Levy and Wolden, 1991a, p. 12). 9.6 The availability and reliability of transport services is often further compromised by restrictive transport sector policies and trucking regulations. Transport monopolies, for example, are often granted to parastatal companies or to well-connected individuals, and entry into the industry is often restricted even where there are no monopolies. Inefficient procurement and distribution of motor fuels by monopo;istic parastatals is often another impediment. And price controls on motor fuels tend to reduce fuel availability in the countryside because they make it unprofitable to invest in transporting and selling motor fuels in locations distant from the port cities. 9.7 As a result, markets are poorly ...... integrated, inter-regional and inter-seasonal .... ... . ... .............. price variations are far greater than they would Aflald . _ Mnd. be in the presence of efficient transport . ; facilities, and incentives to switch from . .. .......s subsistence to market production are often 'T . .... o weak. Where there is surplus farm produce, it If = N aO w often has to be carried over considerable l= . distances to markets or to roadsides from ~~~S ae where vehicles can move it to processing facilities and/or consuming centers. Women I44,14to t*ktO U$t pMb bear the brunt of the rural transport burden _ _ - since much of rural commodity transport _ = a he (water, fuel, farm inputs and farm produce) is done in the form of headloading by women.) is _ e Studies throughout SSA show that women and older girls carry loads of 10-25 kg (sometimes 1 m as much as 40 kg) and can manage 3-5 km per :_ a ( _ hour, depending on terrain and load weight. l $ .bn), mid 9.8 Rural roads and improved tracks V i . navigable for animal-drawn vehicles are crucial f )5' ; 4.:. . 5=. for rural development. Planning, construcdon * 2}4S . and maintenance should involve the local. communities as well as local contractors and technicians. This will help ensure that siting is in accordance with local needs, make maximum ue of labor-intensive techniques to keep down costs, and provide local off-season employment. 9.9 Major efforts are also needed to promote the use of locally appropriate intermediate means of transport (MI),2 especially animal-drawn implements, and off-road transport. 2 IMT rfer to technology intermedia betweos walng and ualodiiwg an the oi hnd and mtor vehil on the othe. They cover a wideo lngo.: impred aid for human porteg (shoulder bar, yoks, backpac), panr nd iigp for pacwk ani, animal-dawn sled and wheeled vehicles, wheebarows and nd ot, bi- and ticycl an tiler, etc. - 104- Governmental involvement in these areas would have to be largely facilitative and promotional. Improvements in off-road transport are essential for rural people's wellbeing and productivity. The extremely poor state of off-road transport in much of Sub-Saharau Africa severely reduces the timeliness and quantities of agricultural inputs and outputs moved to and from motorable roads, thus acting as a strong brake on agricultural productIlivy and growth (Riverson, Gaviria, and Thriscutt, 1991; Riverson and Carapetis, 1990). Rur& .:,'men in particular will benefit very considerably from such improvements - with significant follow-on benefits in terms of the various Nexus linkages. 9.10 Farmers also need information about technical options and market opportunities. Improved communications more generally are required, including not only transportation but also telecommunications and access to electronic mass media. The latter also have significant potential for reaching rural populations with health and educational information, including information c')ncerning family planning and the prevention of sexually transmitted diseases. rii) Water Supply 9.11 The rural water supply situation constitutes another key coastraint - and an important link in the Nexus. Less than 20 percent of Nigeria's rural population, for instance, have convenient access to safe water. There is a direct link between safe potable water and the reduction of infant mortality, and efforts to provide safe water and sanitation facilities have been motivated mainly by these and other direct health considerations. Water-borne and water-related pathogens are major causes of seasonally or permanently debilitating diseases which severely effect, Inter alia, labor productivity, and often especially during periods of peak demand for farm labor (e.g., land preparation and planting). 9.12 Women's stake in convenient access to safe water and sanitation facilities is particularly high, given their almost exclusive responsibility for collecting, transporting, boiling and storing water for drinking and cooking and for washing household effects and laundry, for disposing of waste water, and for maintaining household sanitation standards and facilties. Women have to determine the water sources that can be used for various purposes (for drinking, washing, cooking, watering domestic animals and home gardens, etc.); collect, transport and store the water; and purify drinking water using simple techniques and locally available materials (Dankelman and Davidson, 1988, p. 32). In rural Kenya, 89 percent of the women over age 14, but only 5 percent of the men, reported fetching water as one of their normal tasks; the same percentages were reported for fetching fuelwood (Republic of Kenya, 1980). Access to sufficient quantities of quality water is an increasingly more time-consuming problem for many rural women. A study in Kirinyaga, Kenya, found that 70 percent of trips that involve carrying a load are for fetching water (Kaira, 1982). 9.13 Assuming a daily requirement of, say, only 10 liters of water per person, a six-member household needs 60 liters of water daily - almost 22 tons of water each year. If a women carries 20 liters of water per trip (provided she has the appropriate vessels), this implies that she would have to make three trips daily to the water source - or have her daughter(s) help her with this chore. If the water source is 20 minutes away from the home, about 2 hours daily will be needed to meet the household's water needs. If young girls are responsible for fetching water, they carry less weight and. hence, will need to go more often. The work load increases substantially if water also needs to be broughthome for watering domestic animals and/or the home garden, brewing beer, processing cassava, making mud bricks, or other production tasks requiring water. 9.14 Drastic chaDges in the nrual landscape brought about through deforestation, in many areas exacerbated by prolonged drought, have made water far more difficult to obtain. Springs, streams - 105 - and rivers run dry for long periods, and wells go dry as the water table recedes. The 1976-79 Integrated Rural Surveys of Kenya found that during the wet season 48.8 percent and during the dry season 56.1 percent of all rural households were more than 1 km from. their sourca of water; 14.2 and 22.8 percent, respectively, were more than 2 km from their water source, and 1.4 and 3.0 percent were more than 5 km from the nearest water source (Republic of Kenya, 1980). In some areas, water sources have become polluted or contaminated. In Zimbabwe, for example, women used to obtain water from wells in the fields where they worked, but the water has become contaminated by the fertilizer used on the fields (Nyoni, 1985, p. 55). 9.15 Convenient sources of safe water are of enormous importance to improve human health ' and, hence, labor productivity, and to contribute ,R.:. substantially to a reduction in infant mortality and by * child morbidity and mortality. A major benefit to Uih 4 women and girls of better access to safe water is W e S. that time formerly spent fetching water from - V I . distant sources and preparing such water for human _ use can be used instead for other productive S _ activities, attending school or technical training, R I tending to children's health and educational needs, or simply rest and recuperation. Water supply efforts/projects must be planned and implemented, if not operated, with and by local women. (lit) Infrastruaure and Environmental Conservation 9.16 Infrastructure development is a major determinant of the way people use land as well as of the spatial allocation of people on land. Sound infrastructure policy is therefore a powerful instrument in the two-pronged strategy to intensify agricultural production and to limit furd2er destruction of forest and pasture areas. The development of infrastructure tends to attract and reta: people. The many instances of colonists invading forests via abandoned logging roads provide a powerful illustration. Conversely, the absence of infrastructure in areas that are environmentally delicate wiUl tend to induce people to stay out of those areas. Careful locational targeting of infrastructure development can guide spontaneous population movement into environmentally robust/resilient areas with agricultural potential, and into secondary towns and cities, and help keep migrants out of areas that should not be opened up to farming. 9.17 Infrastructure development, and especially road construction, should therefore be focused where the potential for agricultural intensification is highest and/or where settement is to be encouraged. It should be avoided in forest areas which are to be conserved and in other environmentally fragile areas where an influx of people will lead to environmental degradation and destruction. Concentrating infrastructure development and thereby attracting/retaining people in areas of high production potential and keeping them out of environmentally fragile areas also allows considerable efficiencies in investments and service provision, since the per capita cost of infrastructure development and maiatenance is inversely related to population density. B. Migration and Settlement PoUcy 9.18 Given the considerable agro-ecological diversity in most countries of Sub-Saharan Africa, the development and adoption of suitable productivity-enhancing and environmentally appropriate agricultural technology will of necessity be highly region- and even location-specific. This will, over -106- time, engender significant regional disparities in agricultural production and income growth. Governments will need to resist the urge to correct for this by targeting scarce public resources to the lagging regions. Allowing, facilitating and encouraging migration from the lagging to the thriving regions is the appropriate policy response. Tbis Is particularly important when the lagging regions are likely to be those that have less agricultural potential and are environmentally more fragile. 9.19 In many areas, therefore, part of the solution to the problems of unsustainable agriculture and environmental destruction wiUl of necessity have to involve some movement of people. Tbis is the case, for example, in much of the Sahelo-Sudanian Zone where movement should be encouraged to the Sudano-Guinean Zone further south as well as to areas within the Sahelo-Sudanian Zone itself that can still absorb more people. Nigeria's 'middle belt", for instance, remains relatively underpopulated, compared with the country's northern and southern regions, and holds considerable as yet untapped potential for agricultural development. The same is true for much of Ghana's Brong- Ahafo and Northern Regions.3 9.20 Many factors influence migration. Migration is multisectoral in nature and, in the context of mral Sub-Saharan Africa, closely linked to the problems of rising population pressure, land tenure uncertainties, poor land use and environmental resource degradation. Large scale migration within and between African countries is inevitable in the future, given rapid population growth and the limited absorptive capacity in many rural areas. Without strengthening tenurial arrangements to provide greater security, it will be as difficult to channel migration and settle migrants as it will be to protect and improve their host environment. A sound migration policy must consider the land-use rights of farmers, transhumant pastoralists and forest dwellers. Migration can be used as a positive development tool - if it is linked to a well conceived settlement program. In many cases, migration can balance resource demand with resource availability. Regional surveys of migration, both quantitative (who, how many, from where, and to where) and qualitative (motivations and aspirations) should be carried out in the most sensitive areas of immigration. Without land rights that are confirmed by both custom and law, migrants have no incentive to protect or restore their land. Neither will the residents be able to protect themselves and their resource base from incoming migrants (Falloux and Mukendi, 1988). This has happened in Cote d'Ivoire, for instance, where massive unplanned immigration of Sahelian farmers into open-access forests has contributed to rapid forest destruction, widespread land disputes, and a lack of incentives for farmers to conserve the land. 9.21 Redistributing population - to reduce pressures on the environment on the one hand and to accelerate the transition to intensive farming on the other - requires identifying areas of high agricultural and economic potential, improving infrastructure and services (roads, water supply, schools, health facilities, markets) in these areas, and encouraging people to move to the high potential areas and into mral towns and secondary cities. Governments should normally include population distnbution as a part of their policy to accommodate population growth. Spontaneous movement of people has been occurring for a long time, both within countries and across borders, in search of a better livelihood, in pursuit of trade, and to find seasonal or permanent employment. Cross-border movement has helped to ease population pressure in the areas from which people emigrate - such as the Sahel or Rwanda. But such movements have sometimes been restricted or reversed because of political and ethnic conflicts. Benefits of population migration certainly accrue to the individual migrants and often to the communities from which they migrate. There often also are significant economic benefits for the communities receiving the migrants. The Sahelian farmers 3 In both cas, as in othe ountis, ethnc diversty ad ln tmw s hde explin t uven popuap d_.u - 107 - settling in Cote d'Ivoire have been a dynamic force for agricultural growth. The benefits and costs need to be realistically assessed, and migration, though better planned, allowed to continue. It is also consistan . with Sub-Saharan Africans' desire to encourage and promote regional cooperation. 9.22 There are two main types of rural-rural migration: spontaneous and uncontrolled migration, and government-sponsored organized migration and resettlement. Spontaneous migration involves no direct costs to the public treasury. It is quick for the individuals who move, but in most cases takes place gradually enough to preclude social and economic upheavals in the receiving areas. Unfortunately, it also often tends to lead to poor land use practices, because migrants bring with them only the farming and land use experiences and traditions from the area they left, and these are often inappropriate to their new enviromment. This is particularly the case where settlers invade forest areas opened up by loggers (see Chapter VII). Organized migration, on the other hand, usually entails high costs and is characterized by slow implementation.4 It, too, has often resulted in poor land use, as planning and implementing agencies have tended to promote settlement, resource use and production patterns that were poorly matched to the settlers own needs, perceptions and capabilities. 9.23 The required strategy, therefore, lies somewhere between these two. It should channel, train and support migrants, combining incentives for and controls over land use practices with the development of sustainable and viable production systems. It makes far more sense for governments to promote and support spontaneous migration and settlement, rather than to undertake organized colonization schemes. It will be critically important to devise and implement enforceable land-use regulations to promote sustainable settlement. C. Urbanization 9.24 During the past three decades, the urban population of Sub-Saharan Africa has Urban as Percent of Total Population been growing roughly twice as fast as its total In Sub-Saharan Africa, 1960-1987 population; in a number of countries the rate 27 of urbanization has been considerably faster still. The rate of urbanization has been 26 25 especially high in west, central and east Africa, 22 comparatively more modest in southern Africa (Montgomery and Brown, 1990, p. 76). The 20 19 rapid growth of cities is due not only to the 18 persistent high fertility rates still observed 16 14 among urban women in Sub-Saharan Africa, 12 but in large part to the very high rate of rural- urban migration. This "land-flight" is caused 10 * in part by the strong urban biases inherent in most countries' economic and investment policies. However, experience throughout the 6 world suggests that urban populations have grown and will continue to grow much faster than rural populations - even if governments 1960 185 1970 1975 1980 1986 1990 were to pursue policies that do not favor urban (Dat for 41 ountis of Sub-Sahazn Africa) over rural dwellers (Cour, 1990). 4 For an interesing analysi of migration in RWanda sWe Olson (1990). - 108 - 9.25 Some countries have pursued policies that have led to the emergence of numerous and geographically dispersed secondary cities and rural towns closely linked with their surrounding rural areas (e.g., Cameroon, C6te d'Ivoire, Cameroon, Kenya, Nigeria, Togo). They also have a few very large cities (notably Abidjan, Nairobi, Lagos, Ibadan), but urbanization in these countries has also been characterized by the development of many smaller cities and rural towns throughout much of the national territory. This has had Important positive effects on agriculture. These towns and cities have created non-agricultural employment opportunities for some of the rural population, but this industrial and sezvice sector development has been much more closely linked to agriculture as such and to the needs of rural populations. Cash remittances to home villages are an important source of financing of both consumption and investment expenditures in rural areas. Urban growth creates expanding markets for farm products and tends to lead to increased supply and availability of farm inputs and services. TIis can make agriculture more profitable - provided there are adequate transport links and marketing arrangements. Where networks of rural towns and secondary cities exist, these links are far more direct, immediate and efficient. Spread-out rural towns and secondary cities tend to be associated with far greater penetration of rural areas with adequate transport links and marketing arrangements than are distant mega-cities. For areas that are approaching the limits of sustainable agricultural land use under existing tenurial, technological and climatic conditions, migration to these secondary towns and cities reduces the population pressure and provides an important safety valve. 9.26 Where government policy discourages agricultural production and encourages agricultural imports to supply urban needs, there will be no positive impact of urbanization on agriculture. This has tended to be the case in countries where urban development policy has focussed heavily on the capital or on a few dominant cities, inevitably more distant from rural hinterlands. Manifestations of such policy and expenditure bias are the subsidization of consumption of urban populations (often based on imported food), preoccupation with large urban infrastructure projects, and focus of social expenditures in a few cities. The political influence of growing, massed and vocal urban populaticns results in political pressure to keep food prices low and to target public investments and services disproportionately to the big cities. Where governments have effectively resisted this pressure, the results have been positive for agricultural profitability and growth: Kenya, Ghana, Togo and Zimbabwe are cases in point. Furthermore, cities often draw the most talented, enterprising and educated people from rural areas. When there are no rural towns and secondary cities to go to, these people flock to the mega-cities and theLr energies, enterprise and talents are lost from the rural areas. Less talented and less educated farmers are less likely to be innovators and more likely to be steeped in increasingly destructive traditional farming and land use practices. 9.27 In much of Sub-Saharan Africa, rural out-migration involves predominantly young men (Russell, Jacobsen and Stanley, 1990a). Where policy has a heavy urban bias, this has been particularly pronounced. As women, children and the old stay behind, farm management is increasingly left to women who already have multiple and very heavy responsibilities and work loads and are facing considerably greater constraints in access to resources and services than men (see Chapter V). Many rural areas are today characterized by severely imbalanced gender ratios in their adult population, with women substantially outnumbering men. In addition, if the migrants abandon resilient and productive areas in pursuit of urban employment and in response to anti-agriculural policy biases, this has a negative impact on agricultural production and rural development in the areas which they leave. 9.28 A recent analysis of farm-nonfarm linkages in rural Sub-Saharan Africa found that each US$ of increased agricultural income generated an additional increase of USS 0.5 in non-agricultural - 109- rural incomes.' The direction of causality was largely agricultural growth stimulating services and manufacturing. This is less likely to occur when biased policies retard or prevent the development of secondary towns and cities and instead cut off rural areas and agriculture from the mega-city and make the latter more dependent on imports. 9.29 Considered in the context of the Nexus, urbanization is both a result and a cause of environmental resource degradation. People leave rural areas when they can no longer make a living there (or at least not year-round). Urban dwellers, especially the vast numbers of poor, require fuelwood and food. Urbanization concentrates demand at specific locations. The heavy concentration of urban populations in a single capital city (often a seaport, rather than in a central inland location) makes things worse. Huge concentrations of people in a single location, coupled with high transport costs for domestically produced supplies, result in situations where importing food is cheaper and easier than obtaining it from domestic producers. Government policies in most of Sub-Saharan Africa tend to keep food and fuelwood prices low, reducing incentives for intensification of local food and wood production. Food imports, often sold at subsidized prices, further undermine the incentives for domestic producers. They can also lead to major changes in consumer preferences that may not only diminish demand for local products, but may also be nutritionally undesirable. Fuelwood suppliers, responding to the dual opportunities presented by large concentrations of demand and virtually free access to the raw material base, mine the forests and woodlands around the cities and along roads (e.g., Gorse & Steeds, 1987, pg. 7). 9.30 The net impact of rapid rural-urban migration on the environment and on agriculture is impossible to determine a priori. In some countries, the positive effect will offset the negative; in others, the reverse will be true. Ensuring that urbanization has positive impact on agricultural development and environmental resource conservation requires economic policies that do not discriminate against rural areas (i.e., no price and investment discrimination), good education in rural areas, effective agricultural extension to maintain rural talent, efficient ministries of agriculture providing useful services to farmers, and considerable decentralization of decision making to local people and communities to avoid excessive dominance of the cities and their populations in national political decision making. 9.31 Greater focus on secondary cities and rural towns, in infrastructure investment and urban development generally, and a reduced bias to invest in the mega-cities, will provide a beneficial rural- urban link. Considerable synergies can be tapped here. The examples of Cameroon, Kenya and Togo ahow that rapid urbanization tends to occur in secondary cities and rural towns (rather than in mega-cities) if governments effectively implement policies to promote agricultural development and rural growth (Becker and Morrison, 1988). Agricultural growth is an essential lever to stimulate non- agricultural investment and growth as well as to influence population distribution. Sound urban policy is an important element to assure balanced urban and rural development, favoring rural towns and secondary cities compared to mega-cities. s Of this addtional nual income, only about 20 percnt was atributable to prduction linkages, but about 80 peet to consaunption linkages. The stong comption lngesa lily to ave significan posiv offec on the rell income. of the rual poor - given the importa of femal-dominaed food procesing and boveg prodution and of sevice and mauf g acivities with low invesmmt requiments. They ar alo lely to simulatw producton of frits, vagetable. and meat and, tm, agriulual ication a divenification into high-value prduct, with posiiv offeeb for rral income equity wh, if, ad as lang as se commodi anre pducod by smalholde and pastumalst. The producton linages of icresd agricul incomm on nul equty depend heavily on the respectvo rates of growth of demand for agriculua wage labor and for pu _had input, both of which are cumey at very low leves (ffaggblad and HazeIl, 1988; Haggblade, Hazel and Brown, 1989). - 110- 9.32 The elements of sound urban development policy include relatively more public expenditure in secondary towns and cities and less in the largest cities than has generally been the case to date, and spatially well distributed infrastructure investmet throughout the country (not merely in the largest cities). It also requires market-based petroleum pricing to promote the development of efficient transport fuel distribution systems throughout each country (para. 9.6). It wiUl include the promotion - through industrial extension as well as fiscal and credit policies - of small and medium industy. And it will include greater community control over urban resources: given adequate financial resources and the requisite technical and administrative assistance, local and community governments are far more likely to create and maintain appropriately scaled and sited urban infrastructure facilities than are central governments. Investment in urban development should be responsive to demand for such investment, not driven by political considerations. X. ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES A. Production versus Protection 10.1 The environmental issues that are linked to population and agriculture are primarily those involved with soil, water and vegetation. There are, of course, many other environmental problems facing Sub-Saharan Africa - such as over-fishing in coastal waters, oil spills, dumping of hazardous wastes, pollution from urban sewage and industrial waste, land devastation from surface mining, and so forth. These problems are not, however, so closely related to rapid population growth and agricultural stagnation and therefore are not dealt with here. 10.2 Govermments must be more determined in developing and implementing environmental policies aimed at: (a) maintaining and restoring, in the face of increasing consumption demands, the soil, water, pasture and forest vegetation on which agriculture will continue to be based, and (b) preserving ecosystems and plant and animal species - both as repositories of genetic diversity that may underlie future production of many types of products, and as a national and global heritage. Solving the population and agricultural aspects of the problem are crucial to curtailing degradation of the natural environment. Agricultural intensification, farm forestry an4 fuelwood programs, and sensible land tenure reform are critical factors, as discussed in Chapter Vm. However, moving from the present situation of rapid deforestation and land degradation to one of stabilizing the area under trees, raising the efficiency of fuelwood use and preserving most of the remaining wilderness areas will require an 'affirmative action program' of considerable consequence comprising a number of elements beyond those noted in Chapter VIII. These additional elements are outlined below. 10.3 Intensive human exploitation is inconsistent with maintenance of natural ecosystems. Despite the considerable interest and optimism often expressed with respect to sustainable exploitation of natural forests, lTIO has estimated that only one fiRfh of one percent of the world's natural tropical forest areas are currently being harvested on an ecologically sustainable basis (Goodland, 1991, p. 14; Poore, 1988, 1990). Even logging systems based on selective removal of certain species and age classes of trees may seriously disrupt the ecological balance of a tropical forest and destroy a significant portion of the remaining vegetation during the process of extraction. Recovery of the ecosystem can only be assured if the damaged area is very small and is surrounded by large areas of undamaged forest that can serve as a reservoir of recolonizing species. Thus, even though the area may remain forested, any type of commercial logging in a tropical forest may result in a fundamental and quite possibly irreversible degradation of the original ecosystem. This is in contrast to the less diverse and more resilient temperate forests, which can be logged productively on a sustainable basis (World Bank, 1991b). 10.4 A first step in environmental policy is to determine which areas should and can be maintained as protected areas, and which should be developed for production (agricultural, forest, livestock, fisheries). Criteria for selecting natural ecosystems for preservation include: (a) Biological importance, i.e., species richness and uniqueness: the greater the importance, the more important the need for full protection; (b) Current status, i.e., whether or not the ecosystem is already degraded or spatially constricted to an extent where it is no longer stable and wildlife populations are no longer viable: the less viable a particular ecosystem, the less viable would be a decision to protect it filly; - 112- (c) Likelihood of success of preservation - which depends on the type and degree of present threats (such as human population pressure) which reduce the likelihood of success versus the potential for supporting non-exploitative economic activities (such as eco-tourism) which increase the likelihood of success; (d) Productive potential if converted to other uses such as cropping or livestock production: the greater the productive potential under alternative uses, the less viable the decision to protect fully; (e) Provision of 'environmental services" by a protected area, such as control of soil erosion, prevention of flooding, recharge of aquifers, maintenance of river flow, provision of breeding grounds for marine life, etc.: the greater the value of such services, the greater the importance of protection; (D) Importance for the survival of indigenous peoples and their livelihood systems, especially of forest dwellers: where indigenous peoples depend for physical and/or cultural survival on an area remaining undisturbed, the ne4 for protection becomes imperative. 10.5 These criteria imply trade-offs, and in many cases they will involve the need to make difficult choices. If one basic objective is to limit the decline in Sub-Saharan Africa's total wilderness areas (from their present extent of 27 percent of the total land area to not less than 23 percent), these criteria will need to be applied with considerable stringency. Since natural resource systems, including forests, have multiple uses, there can be no substitute for planning. Land use plans should identify conservation areas, parks, areas designated for sustainable logging, farming areas, pasture and range land, as well as areas needed and suitable for human settlements and physical infrastructure. Agricultural technology is location-specific in its applications, and land use plans therefore should identify, in broad terms, the appropriate technologies. Land tenure issues and fuelwood proolems aiso are location-specific - as are many of the cultural factors that help determine human fertility. Regional plans should define these, with greater weight attached to resource conservation than in the past. 10.6 Past attempts at land use planning, regional planning and integrated rural development programs have generally not worked well in most of Sub-Saharan Africa. Among the chief causes suggested by analyses of the reasons for this poor record were excessive complexity of such plans, lack of governmental capacity to prepare such plans, even greater lack of capacity to implement them, and frequent lack of incentives to cooperate for the people living in the areas concerned. Land tenure issues, identification of appropriate agricultural technology, participation by local people and private agents, and provision of adequate financial incentives were usually completely neglected. Instead, almost universally applied were engineering 'solutions," with implementation entrusted to public sector agencies or donor-guided project management units. A new approach is needed for both planning and management. 10.7 Local populations must be active participants in both planning and implementation of land use plans. This is best accomplished by ensuring their ownersh.p of the land and of the natural resources associated with it. Ownership provides the strongest and most direct incentive to conserve. Loss of ownership, or ambiguities concerning ownership, creates incentives to exploit without regard to sustainabiity and provides no incentives to invest in resource conservation or productivity enhancement. Governments should therefore divest most (though not all) forest and range areas to local people and assist them, through forest and agricultural services, to manage these resources properly (as discussed in Chapter VII. Traditional owner/user communities could obtain group title. - 113 - Management plans should be prepared in a collaborative manner by the local communities, government agency staff and, where they exist, grassroots organizations and NGOs. Participatory rural appraisal (PRA) techniques provide very effective tools to do this.' Such management plans would provide for industrial and artisanal wood harvesting on a sustainable basis (specifying concession fees, taxes, etc.) and for essential infrastructure development and would identify areas suitable for crop and livestock production. Local populations would utilize the forest and woodland resources for fuelwood and artisanal forestry, for hunting, and for harvesting of non-wood forest products, the arable land for cropping, and the range and grazing land for livestock production. 10.8 Incentives are far more likely than governmental regulations, controls and enforcement to be effective tools for conserving natural resource stocks. The most important incentive to ensure resource conservation would be resource ownership: the certainty that resource degradation will be a cost directly borne by the current owner/users and by their descendants - i.e., by the present and future members of the group. A second incentive will be provided through the accrual of direct income from rents and royalties for use rights concessions awarded to others. A third will be the holding of exclusive user rights. 10.9 Governments should focus their direct management efforts on a much smaller share of the total national land and forest resources - i.e., those areas that provide public (and global) benefits and goods. This will consist mainly of parks and other protected conservation areas where there are important externalities that local populations cannot be expected to finance or otherwise support. Even there, local participation will be necessary, however, with local people given incentives to conserve the existing resource base of the protected area through the confirmation of exclusive hunting and gathering rights, the provision of employment opportunities in the various support services required to manage protected areas, and a share of any user fees that are collected. B. Forest and Conservatdon Areas 10.10 The degree to which sustainable management of primary humid forests is possible within logging concessions is highly contentious. Although the evidence available at present may not be sufficient to make a definitive and categorical statement, there is increasing support among experts for entirely prohibiting logging in intact primary humid forests. Logging should be stopped in ecologically delicate and in environmentally important areas. There clearly should be no logging where it is not possible to log on a sustainable basis. In secondary forests (i.e., those consisting of re,growth where primay forests have been logged or otherwise significantly disturbed before), iidustrial plantations and tree farms, logging must be undertaken in accordance with sustainable management practices. These areas could, in many cases, be specifically designated and managed as permanent sources of timber, pulpwood and woodfuels - provided the private owners (individuals or groups) agree. Logging companies unable to log in a sustainable manner should not be given concessions and permits, not even in secondary forest areas. This will require governmental regulation of logging, even if it is undertaken on private land. 10.11 Loggers will have to improve their performance and show themselves to be responsible in their logging activities. In order to induce this behavior, logging concession agreements providing for logging company responsibilities as well as rights will be necessary. Payment of taxes should be t PRA tclhnu have been developed and rofined in the 1980s, evolving firm Rapid Rual Appraisal (RRA) ehniques aNd agroeoyem mayses, to ensu mauimm involvement by the loal population in local land use panning (rumce inventory, problen diaosis, suee use planning, action plan fonmula, eto.). Soo, for intance, Chamber., 1991. - 114- more the norm than is tax evasion. Management of secondary growth forests and industrial plantations would then become more important in the share of the business of logging companies than mining of primary forests. Even where governments choose to continue to allow logging in primary forests, management of secondary growth should be strongly encouraged by levying much lower taxes on trees taken from replanted areas and industrial plantations than on trees harvested from primary forests. If international prices for tropical wood rise as currently projected, the profitability of forest plantations will increase, making such an approach even more feasible. 10.12 Taxes on logging in those primary forests where logging is still permitted should be increased, through area-based taxes levied on concessions. Part of the tax should be collected and retained by local communities owning the forests. Concession agreements should be auctioned to the highest bidder. These measures would serve to return more of the benefit to the community and, in effect, impose a charge on the companies for the resource (the forest) exploited. Taxes should be high enough to reflect the economic and social value of the forest, including the enviromental services it provides, and the cost of rehabilitation if the public sector or the local community undertakes that rehabilitation. 10.13 An environment this restrictive for logging must also be made consistent with management of the resource by local owners. It is increasingly recognized that maintenance of protected areas requires the direct involvement of the local and surrounding populations. It is unrealistic to expect communities to conserve forest and wildlife resources unless such conservation provides these communities with clear benefits. The exclusionary approach so often taken in protected areas in the past is neither workable nor sustainable nor equitable. Governments cannot financially afford and effectively provide the degree of enforcement needed. And the local populations, frequently among the poorest, aro left to bear the costs of restricted access to resources, exposure to marauding wildlife, etc. 10.14 Governments will need to provide the essential policy and administrative framework: publishing standard concession agreements, establishing and collecting taxes and stumpage fees, and creating conservation areas, based on both land use plans and national forest policy parameters. Implementation would be the responsibility of the local communities, with the requisite technical assistance provided by government agencies and/or NGOs. As these communities acquire experience and management acumen, the need for such outside assistance will decline and government support should be commensurately withdrawn. As emphasized above, strong and lasting incentives (embodied in resource ownership, user rights, revenue sharing, and the like) would need to be provided to ensure appropriate local interest in such an approach to resource management. 10.15 Reflecting the recognition that effective resource conservation and management must involve strong local participation, the concept of 'Integrated Conservation and Development" is being developed. It involves the following key aspects: (a) Local populations retain the rights to continued traditional utilization of resources inside state-owned protected areas to the extent that this is not detrimental to the ecosystem and are, of course, allowed to continue such activities on all land returned outright to them. (b) The local communities are allowed to generate income from protected areas through environmentally compatible activities such as tourism, hunting with traditional weapons, and gathering of non-timber forest products. All of these activities are directly dependent on the protected area. Local communities given exclusive rights to carry out these activities will have an incentive to conserve the forest or wilderness area. - 115 - (c) Buffer zones are established around core protected areas where the land and resource ownership is returned to the local communities and which will provide them with forest and agricultural products without overexploiting the protected areas.2 Buffer zones also serve to keep potentially destructive wildlife away from villages, crops and domestic livestock. (d) Agriculture and social development activities can be provided outside protected areas to attract local populations away from these areas and as an incentive to avoid encroachment. (e) Commercial logging of protected areas would be entirely excluded. Logging would be allowed and carefully managed only in those areas identified for logging, but on a sustainable basis. 10.16 Actual experience with implementing the 'Integrated Conservation and Development' concept is stiil limited in Sub-Saharan Africa. A number of pilot projects have been initiated, but are at a very early stage. The most important element is agricultural intensification outside the forest areas. Only rapid increases in output per unit of land will induce a fast growing population to stay out of the forests. Without agricultural intensification the forests and wilderness areas of Sub-Saharan Africa stand little, if any, chance of survival in the longer run. The ultimate environmental collapse can be postponed by reducing the rate of population growth. The preferred option combines maximum agricultural intensification with sharply curtailing population growth and far more determined and effective management of environmental resources. 10.17 Experience to date with this approach to conservation indicates some of the key constraints to successful implementation: (a) The overall policy and legal framework must be consistent with the conservation objective. For example, local communities need to be authorized to participate in the management and benefits of protected areas and the wildlife and other resources they contain. Resistance to this concept remains strong in most of Sub-Saharan Africa, as governments generally believe that benefits reaped from conservation areas should accrue to all citizens. Compromises will have to be made. For example, taxes can be levied on local community receipts from tourism, so that benefits may be shared more widely. (b) Social and institutional factors constrain implementation of community-based conservation strategies. The major problems are the general weakness of community organizations and the vastly unequal distribution of authority between the national and local levels. Most local communities in forest, range and wilderness areas are poorly organized and difficult to organize. Outside assistance is nearly always necessary. (c) Only in a small number of cases can protected areas be expected to generate sufficient revenues from non-exploitative uses (such as eco-tourism) to provide significant local income or to support significant rural development. In most cases, exter financing 2 Agro-forsiy chems uliing usef indigenos te have considerble potnial for makig buffer zone a viable proposito for do local popultin. The Buuri PFort Project oited by USAID in muiwdi, the Uganda Vilag Pate Prject mppoitd by CARI, and h Covation of Oka Mounain Prqoet in Caeoon are maing nweafU us of buffer zon agro-forety (Nar, 1990, p. 49). - 116- will need to be provided on a long-term basis. The national and international communities must contribute to the cost of maintaining the national and global heritage represented by the areas being protected. (d) Creation of an institutional and management capacity in government is a difficult process. This is rarely, if ever, the highest priority of governments; as a result, such agencies are usually neglected and financially strained. Again, international assistance is critical. (e) In the absence of agricultural intensification, conservation efforts are bound to fail. 10.18 Conservation of biodiversity depends directly upon preservation of natural habitats, particularly tropical moist forests which contain by far the greatest diversity of species outside of certain marine environments. Habitat destruction is the greatest cause of extinction of species overall. However, for certain species which are acutely endangered by commercial exploitation, additional protection is needed in the form of controls on harvesting and on international trade. Such controls can only be effective if the governments of both "producing' and "consuming' countries are committed to enforcing them. 10.19 While better and more effectively protected area systems are essential, the single most important factor to ensure the preservation of land-based natural ecosystems will be meeting the demand for food, wood and other agricultural and forest products on a sustainable basis. Soil and water resources must be protected by protecting important watersheds - by maintaining natural forests and, where these are already degraded, by re-planting or allowing natural regeneration to take place. The critical question of meeting the needs for woodfuels and timber must be addressed from both the production and the ..... ..... ' demand side. While commercial logging of iddi20 remaining primary moist forests should be = greaty reduced (if not banned entirely), ; because the available evidence indicates that it = = cannot be sustainable, there must be a major m increase in resources for the sustainable ht production of fuielwood and construction wood. AYSM isp31). This must come from farm forestry, as well as from industrial plantations and well-managed production forests located in areas where the original forest system has already been substantially altered by logging. At the same time, energy conservation must be promoted, both through economic policy measures (e.g., pricing) and through the development and extension of technical innovations. The Role of Governments 10.20 There are important functions to be fufilled by Government agencies. Governments should develop the institutional and human capacity required to prepare land use plans, manage protected areas and to monitor logging as well as the use of agricultural and pasture (and fisheries) resources. This is important to ensure that protected areas are in fact protected and that the areas made available for exploitation are used in a productive and sustainable manner. An example of management for sustainability is increasing the availability of wood products to match population growth - ensuring, for example, that reforestation matches cutting. This could be done by convincing local communities and individual land owners to set aside sufficient land for wood production. The instruments to achieve this would chiefly be those of ensuring that price, tax and - 117- other incentives make tree planting, harvesting and markceting profitable (and more profitable than other forms of land use on the land most suitable for tree production). This requires planning and management capacity in Government to help local populations manage natural resources. In parkes and protected areas, governments will need the capacity to manage resources directly and effectively. 10.21 Government forest services analso help local owners reforest degraded forest land by providing planning assistance, seedlings and training. But the planting, maintenance and harvesting must be done by the local people themselves. Forest services need to concentrate on extension and research functions on private and community-owned land, rather than on direct management. NGOs can play important roles in assisting local people in managing natural resources, and where they are ready and willing to assume this role, they should be given wide room to do so. Governmnents should also intensify their efforts to provide effective and locally relevant environmental education through the school system and through mass media. Agricultural extension staff should similarly be utilized to spread awareness of environmental issues among rural populations. ~~~~~~~~~ Re1zs Poli. y .Aof 4iwhX In(Oo4I=Daou ~wUo i f ~p~lt~u andbiebo m ~w h ir fteouw.Ta~tt 4otniloa4 the :::f.on .fa Rnstda fotrtnImn.n1e fb redAoac u o ohobc thak guaataa 5nnci* o mla ont n w*a evonaot2 ~on n'.f aoc i:Wlif n ul~~wndh osn. a s~.m ik opz i ilubatwlhO0O a owuoka ,t, at . Rabopwitw of los: wo4b ii.tae _Ruug .o* wsagww Rf f'gT fo ogn al fwiha uonayfmta tvol os4~uouw adapnin ulodpmwe.. an T..,tac _ ...' fanmIdcdtxallaotiete£rt{soeo lu ilpdeewo nterfti .tt: t trow b'.in . .)l :.tei@ .Rn fp plan. fo>"R ' ddn S ......... ; 0@4u Mz .,u, t : ., . e to 5Q 11 - or uwIil~j.:.:'RRc~ t'5" wol nthepalte t og bflntM hevlt amun oRf. toa R,, tt fr 'RSi goonmt a*nI- a*be1e.ud~adaesdewl emlndt h aJs.stou-'fla idn.Ti 'R ashf ou.:;s'ide :'theak . :.a .n .u~l ::sene. t.o '_:''Mal .:':::' The': aprlun alnuo .eo wil pso Weacldie t _ ml. wRi= ='R"..::=..nne xean niete(mt, ihnt co r SRbowvagt boendon so mova... RSfl*>5vgs ite ... heaiseti p.Ratv toRR Rn luctaty... Ra - 118 - FiYnandcng 10.22 The benefits of improved conservation of tropical forests will accrue to the entire world, while the costs will have to be borne almost entirely by the countries in which the forests are located. This situation has stimulated efforts to reimburse the producing countries for losses incurred when forests are taken out of production and put into reserves. The first such efforts were "debt for nature' swaps. Although not many swaps have been organized in Sub-Saharan Africa, there is no doubt that there is considerable potential for them in many parts of the continent. The principle is that governments agree to set aside as a protected reserve large tracts of forest or wildlife area, usually administered with the help of an NGO, in return for the purchase of some amount of the country's discounted debt by the NGO, or organized by the NGO. 10.23 A recently launched inidative is now underway to provide about US$1 billion for a Global Environmental Facility (GEF). These funds would be made available to countries as compensation for reducing activities that are remunerative but significantly compromise biodiversity (such as logging), contribute to carbon dioxide emissions (such as forest burning), or produce CFCs. Setting aside of tropical forest land as reserves and parks is a good candidate for funding under this Facility. C. Dryland Areas and Pasture Land 10.24 Dryland areas will, like forest areas, require special protection. Actions in the agricultural, livestock, infrastructure, land tenure and population spheres along the lines set out in previous chapters will be necessary, but not sufficient. Because agricultural technology adapted to dryland areas is so marginal, land tenure reform so exceedingly difficult to implement, and carrying capacity so low, sustainable management of dryland areas will be very problematic. 10.25 Two recent reviews of key issues in Sahelian dryland management highighted a number of essential concerns that should be observed in attempts to ensure sustainable management and development (Nekby, 1990; Shanmugaratnam et al., 1991). These include the research and extension of appropriate crop and livestock technologies which are both soil conserving and more profitable for farmers and herdsmen, land tenure reform to eliminate open access, reduction of population growth through out-migration, and promotion of non-agricultural rural industries to reduce the pressure on land. One of these reviews (Nekby, 1990) also suggested a return to holistic and integrated planning and execution - in effect, a return to the concept of integrated regional development based on land use plans that allocate land for pasture, cropping, reserves and parks, fuelwood production, forests and other uses. Land ownership would be allocated, including to traditional community or clan owners. Agricultural and livestock technology would be developed to suit each particular agro- climatic situation. The technologies would include considerable soil conservation measures. It is, at present, not possible to envisage an alternative approach in dryland areas. 10.26 Local initiative and management need to be mobilized in a manner similar to that described above for the forest areas. Group land titles should be provided. It is through the ownership of land and of natural resources that local participation can be mobilized. In better watered grazing lands, individual ownership of ranches wiUl be possible, but this will not be generally feasible on dry lands due to the patchy availability of water and the need for seasonal livestock movement. But exclusion of others - i.e., elimination of open-access conditions - is essential. Hence the need for group titles to land. At the same time, local communities and individuals need to be taught to plan and manage resource use. Communities will require funding to do this (such as the micro-project funds which some donors have begun to establish). Technical assistance will have to be provided to communities to assist them in this planning. - 119 - D. Water 10.27 In large parts of Sub-Saharan Africa, water is the critical limiting resource, and conflicts over competing uses are becoming evident. In some areas, groundwater reserves are being drawn down for irrigation much faster than they can be replenished. Dammin and diversion of rivers for irrigation or hydro-power development has often created serious problems downstream. These include the spread of water-borne and water-related diseases, coastal erosion, intrusion of saltwater into groundwater aquifers in coastal areas, destruction of woodlands and wetlands of critical importance as wildlife habitat, and destruction of downstream fisheries and coastal wetlands critical for marine life. Water pollution from domestic sources has become a major concern in many areas, both around coastal cities and in countless areas where lack of safe potable water is the most serious public health problem. In some regions, pollution from agrochemicals is emerging as a problem, as it already is in other parts of the world. Water must be recognized for the critical and limiting resource it is: it must be carefully allocated through the development of local and regional water use plans and protected against pollution. E. National Environmental Action Plans (NEAPs) 10.28 The development of national environmental esource management strategies must be a national affair. The main vehicle used for this process is the National Environmentl Assessment and Action Plan (NEAP). NEAPs are currently being prepared or Implemented with World Bank support by more than 20 African countries. They should contain strategies for addressing all of the issues of the nexus. The NEAP concept is multi-sectoral in approach, and oriented to bottom-up participatory planning and implementation. It provides a framework for ingraing environmental concerns with social and economic planning within a country. The objective is to identify priority areas and actions, develop institutional awareness and processes and mobilize popular participation through an intensive consultation process with NGOs and community representatives. 10.29 A successfil national approach to enviromental concerns involves several important steps: * Establishing policies and legislation for resource conservation and environmental protection that are integrated into the macroeconomic framework and, if possible, assessing the costs of degradation.3 * Setting up the institutional framework, usually involving a ministedal or higher-level environmental policy body, developing mechanisms for coordination between agencies, building concern in these agencies, balancing private and public sector concerns, decentralizing environmental management, and assurng continuus contact with local people. The preparation of regional land use plans could be an important component. The basic framework needed to guide the implementation of land tenure reform, forest policy reform and other elements discussed above can also be included in NEAPs. * Strengthening national capacity to carry out environmental assessments and establishing environmental information systems. This can be done to some extent by restructuring existing data and making them available to users. Pilot demand-driven information 3 Thea wao, for example, eatimatd to be ben S and 15 pucat of maaN CNP in Madbar and mm dtb 5 perceat of ODP in hana. - 120 systems should also be initiated to . . .. strengthen national capacity to monitor ............ and manage environmental resources. Local and regional rese sch capacity = p will be crucial to the development of plants and technologies which are truly h oe* Mct ol ia wll1 adapted to local conditions. Developing human resources through # W formal and on-the-job training; introducing enviromnental concerns '- iti nma o4wp*uoa aikyo into educational curricula; and . = ¢9; _ increasing public awareness through .~ i Qt Q*pus zfm~u media coverage and general m campais. 10.30 NEAPs are intended to be evolutionary P - developing policies through field experience as : 2_ well as national-4evel analysis. They should lead ....... to the empowerment of the non-governmental sector, not just by providing funds fe' nail-scale community activities through nationau environmental funds, but also by drawing large numbers of village and district representatives into consultative forums. A non-governmental advisory body was part of the institutional arrangements set up, for example, under the Lesotho NEAP. 10.31 Considerable external support has been provided for the NEAP process, from bilateral and multilateral agencies and NGOs (such as the World Wildlife Fund, the World Resources Institute, and the International Institute for Environment and Development). Donor expertise is made available to the countries undertaking NEAP preparation, and donor policies are coordinated in the process, with the NEAP forming the basis for coordination. Where NEAPs have led to the preparation of national enviromnental investment plans (as in Madagascar and Mauritius), donors have substantially oversubscribed the programs. An NEAP can therefore become the major preparatory instrument for addressing the issues discussed in this chapter. la. CONCLUSION A. The Problen 11.1 The countries of Sub-Saharan Africa face three important challenges: (a) reducing the rate of population growth, (b) safeguarding their natural resource base, and (c) making agriculure, as quickly as possible, sufficiently productive to ensure rising standards of living for the rapidly iacreasing population without fruther endangering the resource base available for this purpose. Because these three challenges are closely interlocking, the ambitious indicative targets set out ia Chapter VI in each of these areas are more likely to be achieved if the actions suggested in each specific area are successful. 11.2 Rapid population growth, environmental degradation, and slow agricultural growth observed in Sub-Saharan Africa are closely linked. The principal problem is that shifting cultivation and transhumant pastoralism, adapted to low population density situations, are environmentally damaging when practiced by rapidly increasing populations. When population densides increase and shifting around on the land becomes impossible, but farming practices do not change, soUs degrade and forests are destroyed. Soil degradation and deforestation constrain agricultural growth. Lagging agriculural growth perpetuates rural poverty and food insecurity, which in turn impede the onset of the demographic transition to lower human fertility rates. 11.3 Past efforts have, on the whole, failed to reverse the direction of the downward spiral that is driven by the synergetic forces of this Nexus. The explanation, at least in part, appears to be that past efforts have been pursued too narrowly along traditional sectoral lines - matching established institutional arrangements and traditional academic disciplines - while crucial cross- sectoral linkages and synorgies have been ignored. Environmental integrity and resource conservation are critical for sustainable long-term growth of agriculture, and of the economy. But this will be very difficult to achieve if present rates of population growth persist. Population growth is unlikely to decelerate unless there is more vigorous growth of agriculture, and of the economies depende" on agriculture. At the same time, agricultural growth based on traditional patterns of resource use and production technologies wiUl be increasingly constrained by rapid population growth and the degradation of the environmental resource base. 11.4 A significant conclusion of this study is that far more emphasis needs to be placed on efforts designed to promote effective demand for sustainable and environmentally benign farming technologies, for family planning services, for resource conservation. Considerable emphasis has been placed in most past sectoral development efforts on the supply side (i.e., efforts to develop and deliver technology and services), while the need to generate demand has remained largely unrecognized - or at least poorly served. The synergies inherent in the Nexus provide considerable potential for addressing the demand side of these important problems. 11.5 There is low demand tor small families, as well as an inadequate supply of family planning services. Both are keeping total fertility rates high. Low demand for small families is due to cultural factors, high infant mortality, low education for girls, and limited family planning services. More contentious is the impact of economir, incentives. High demand for child labor may be created by systems of shifting cultivation, severely constrained access by rural women to production inputs other than child labor, additional demand for child labor as part of a survival strategy in the face of poor food security and increasing degradation/depletion of soil and water resources. Demand for smaller families is manifesting itself, however, where the density of - 122 - population on culdvated land is high, infant mortality is low, food security is high, and female school enrollment rates are high. Countries with these characteristics are entering the demographic transition, and family planning programs are likely to be extremely effective there in responding to the strongly emerging demand for family planning services. 11.6 Forest degradation is sdmulated by rapid population growth combined with shifing cultivation (people moving into forests to farm), poorly regulated logging, and 'open access' la4d tenure. 'Open access' occurs when there is no effective regulation of land use, either traditional or modern This allows farmers and others to exploit the land, and the resources on it, in a non- sustainable manner. Fuelwood prices which are too low to cover replanting costs, are constraining fuelwood planting. Fuelwood prices are low because it can be mined, nearly freely, from open access areas. Trees can be cleared for farmland by migrant farmers in open access situations. 11.7 Women's time is increasingly constrained in rural areas, as fuelwood and water become scarce. Women walk further for water and fuelwood as a result. Women have difficulty maintaining food output with less time available, contributing to food security problems. 11.8 Technological innovation which could Lermit traditional farming and livestock practices to evolve in an environmentally sustainable manner, is not keeping up with the present rapid rate of population growth. The present gap is enormous. 11.9 Lack of demand by farmers for new agricultural technology is as important as lack of supply of appropriate technology, in explaining slow agricultural growth. Lack of demand is related to several factors: - Open access land tenure situatons are replacing traditional land tenure systems. In open access, land occupation and use is temporary and there is no incentive for the farmer to invest in farm intensification. Open access also reduces the incentive for farmers to conserve the land (since it is not theirs). * There Is often a lack of capital and financial resources with which farmers (especially women) can invest. This low income trap is operable in much of subsistence agriculture. * Labor constraints on women often prevent them from adopting those intensive technologies which are labor intensive. * In much of Sub-Saharan Africa poor agricultural and economic policies, combined with currendy low world prices for many agricultural products, have reduced the profitability of fiaming and hence the incentive to intensify farming. They have often restricted farmers' ability to participate fully in land management, marketing or price setting. * Appropriate improved agricultura technology for farmers is often locally unavailable and/or unknown; there can be no effective demand for what does not exist or is not known to exist. B. Recommendadons for Acbon 11.10 To correct the current disastrous trends noted above, a set of mutually reinforcing actions need to be undertaken by governments and donors. One of the most important will be to - 123 - promote demand for smaller families and FP services. This needs to be effected through determined action in several areas - notably expanding primary and secondary education for females, reducing infant mortality, and providing culturally sensitive FP advice and services. Field surveys to identifiy the determinants of fertility and attitudes to family planning will be essential. Population programs are being prepared in about half of the countries of SSA. Political commitment will be necessary to implement them. Priority in establishing FP programs that emphasize increased supply should be given to countries where demand for fewer children is emerging - as a consequence of increasing population density on cultivated land, improving female education, declining infant mortality rates, improved food security and better conservation of environmental resources. Where these factors are not satisfactory, demand for children will remain strong and will blunt the effectiveness of programs oriented towards increasing the supply and accessibility of FP services. 11.11 Where AIDS is a serious concern, even in the absence of the elements that appear to spur the onset of the demographic transition, high priority must be placed on providing appropriate information and education regarding the prevention of sexually transmiued diseases as well as condoms through all available channels, such as schools, health facilities, traditional health providers, PP programs, pharmacies, NGOs, etc. 11.12 Strong efforts are also needed to create farmer demand for 'environmentally sustainable' agricultural technology. Means to accomplish this include expansion of appropriate research and extension to farmers, the elimination of open-access land tenure systems, and agricultural policy which makes agricultural intensification profitable (and reduces the relative profitability of shifting cultivation). The priority development of rural roads and markets in areas designated for agricultural development will be important in this regard. Agricultural research establishments must be developed to supply the appropriate technology. The recent elaboration of Frameworks for Action under the auspices of the Special Program for African Agricultural Research (SPAAR) merits strong support, as do related efforts to improve other agricultural support services such as extension. Funding is not so much the problem as is organization and management. 11.13 Agricultural services and education must serve women, to stimulate reduced demand for children and improve women's farming practices. Successful introduction of agro-forestry and fuelwood production on farms would significantiy reduce women's work burden in fuelwood gathering. Introduction of appropriate transport improvements and stoves that save both fuel and time would also help. Improving rural water supply will save women's time. It wiUl also reduce infant mortality, thus reducing the demand for more children. Success in these areas will free more of women's time for family management, agricultural production and other economic activities. 11.14 Measures necessary to create a market for fuelwood should be pursued. Fuelwood prices should reflect the scarcity value and replanting costs of trees. Higher prices would stimulate farmers and entrepreneurs to plant trees. This will require land tenure reform to eliminate open access to free fuelwood by farmers and entrepreneurs. It wil also require extension advice to farmers on agro-forestry and fuelwood plantations. Eliminating price and taxation disincentives to the marketing of kerosene and other substitute fuels would stimulate the substitution of such fuels for woodfuels over time, particularly in urban areas. 11.15 The rate of degradation and destruction of forests and wildlands can be reduced by determined pursuit of agricultural intensification. This needs to be promoted through the measures indicated above, the elimination of open-access land tenure situations, keeping infrastructure out of environmentally sensitive areas, and more effective regulation and taxadon of logging. - 124 - 11.16 Environmental action plans should be prepared which focus on agricultural and demographic causes of environmental degradation in rural areas. A key instrument to be used in preparing solutions will be land use plans. These define the use to which various types of land are to be put (forest, protected areas, agriculture, settlements, infrastructure, etc.), given various demands. 11.17 Infrastructure development in rural areas, particularly roads and water supply, is important for agricultural development and to focus population settlement outside of environmentally sensitive areas. Keeping infrastructure out of environmentally sensitive areas is an important tool for conserving those areas. Infrastructure investment in rural areas and in secondary towns merits considerablv higher priority than it has received in most countries in the past. Infrastructure development should be in response to demand. This is likely to result in smaller-scale investments rather than massive engineering efforts which have to date characterized much government and aid agency spending. Demand responsiveness will be stimulated by more community and local control over infrastructure design and siting, by the use of local private contractors, and by funding facilities constructed and maintained by the user communities themselves. 11.18 Urban areas represent outlets for population increases, markets for agricultural products and fuelwood, sources of manufactured inputs and consumer goods for farmers, and centers for the provision of educational, health and other services. Urban development needs to be one component of land use plans. Further, urban policy should be developed in part as a function of likely growth of the urban population, linages between urban and rural product and labor markets, communications needs in rural areas and environmental constraints. Generally, policies which promote development of secondary cities and rural towns, rather than of a few mega-cities, will be far more conducive to efficient, equitable and sustainable rural development. This requires spatially well distributed public investment which is not biased in favor of mega-cities, sound and substantial investment in infrastructure throughout each country (rather than concentration in mega-cities). I further requires fiunctioning markets and market-based pricing for petroleum and other energy sources, avoidance of transport monopolies to increase the likelihood that the entire country is adequately served by private transport providers, promotion (through industrial extension, investment codes, credit facilities) of small and medium enterprises located in secondary cities and rural towns, and decentralization of political decision making outside capital areas to facilitate greater responsiveness to demand. These are not only crucial elements of sound urbanization policy, but are important for rural development because well functioning secondary towns and cities are more likely to provide services and markets for rural areas than are distant mega-cities which tend to be heavily oriented to overseas suppliers. 11.19 Local communities need to be empowered to participate in all of the above. Without participation, people will not demand smaller families, sustainable agricultural technologies, road maintenance or forest conservation. Participation is more likely to result in development initiatives which respond to felt needs rather than to short-term political imperatives and expediencies. People should become managers of actions conceived in partnership with Governments. 11.20 Multi-sectoral and cross-sectoral thinking is needed to resolve agricultural, population, settlement and environmental problems - because of the important linkages and synergy between them. Environmental protection will be very difficult to achieve if present rates of population growth continue. Population growth is unlikely to decelerate unless agriculture, and the economies dependent on agriculture, grow more rapidly. Agriculture will be increasingly consirained by rapid population growth. Settlement and urban development policies are important factors influencing population growth and movement, agriculture and environmental resource use. In this regard, the analysis suggests that spatial planning would be desirable, and that action plans covering the various sectors - 125- should be integrated at the regional level. In particular, land use plans should be developed with a spatial and regional focus. Such plans should identify conservation areas, logging areas, farming areas, and locations for settlements and infrastructure development. Appropriate farming technologies vary from one micro-agro-climatic zone to the next. Technology is location-specific. Land tenure problems, fuelwood problems and even cultural patterns defining human fertility will vary from place to place in the same country. There is therefore merit to having regional action plans for conservation, agricultural technology, land tenure reform, fuelwood, forestry, etc. Regional plans need to be structured around networks of markets and towns and include the transport and communications infrastructure that links them. 11.21 Because such plans will be complex and difficult to implement, they should in most cases not be implemented through integrated multi-component projects. Conservation and land use plans specified by location would be one cluster of projects. Appropriate agricultural technology for each micro-region could be developed and extended through national research and extension programs, with regional implementing divisions. Regionally specific land tenure reform could be implemented under national land tenure reform programs. Population actions adapted to particular communities would be implemented through national population and family planning programs. Urban and infrastructure development will constitute separate projects. But there needs to be a sensible fit between these separate projects and investments, given the synergies and complementarities between them. 11.22 Several other important recommendations emerge from this study concerning analytical work that should precede the formulation of action plans and, particularly, of developmental interventions - be they investment projects or institutional and policy reforms. * Far greater attention needs to be paid to the social organization of production and consumption, of decision-making and resource allocation, of access to resources and services. These systems and structures can be very complex and often differ substantially among communities (and certainly among countries) throughout Sub- Saharan Africa. - This implies the need to use relevant 'units of analysis'. The casual and often indiscriminate use, for example, of the 'household", the "family" and the 'family farm' may not be appropriate if these terms are simply assumed to convey concepts of social and economic arrangements familiar to 20th-century industrialized economies. Most African societies are characterized by complex systems of resource-allocation and - pooling arrangements for both production and consumption purposes, based on lineage, kinship, gender and age-groups - often with multiple overlaps. It is imperative to be cognizant of, and sensitive to, these and to analyze the impact of development interventions on individuals in this context. * Gender issues are critical, especially in terms of gender-specific divisions of responsibilities, tasks, and budgets, as well as in terms of Access to resources, information and markets. Interventions and incentives do not necessarily work in the same direction or with the same intensity for men and women. * More input is needed from sociologists and anthropologists to understand socio- economic systems and relationships. Social scientists shoud collaborate closely with agricultural scientists and economists in researching farming systems, cultures and socio- economic institutions into which new varieties and technologies are to be introduced. -126- Agriculturaists and economists in turn should receive special training to raise awareness of these issues. Local expertise needs to be much more drawn upon to improve our understanding of how things operate, why they operate this way, and what may work under these conditions. Extremely important is the need to take into account the risk perception of the local people - their absolute requirement for ensuring survival in the short term even under worst-case scenarios. C. Status of Implementation 11.23 Ihe above recommendations are broad and need adaption to each country's special circumst=nces. In some countries, these ideas are already being pursued: (a) Many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are pursuing macro-economic and agricultura policy reform programs designed in part to improve the profitability of agriculture; this will stimulate the needed agricultural intensification. On the other hand, some countries do not yet have policies which would make agriculture profitable. Also, many donor countries maintain a combination of import barriers and agricultral subsidies to assist their own farmers, and this harms African producers of these commodities. These policies need to be changed. pb) An increasing number of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are now developing environmental action plans. For these countries, implementation is the watchword. In the others, the process should be launched. Donor support should be intensified. (c) Agricultural research and extension systems in a number of countries are slowly shiftng to a greater focus on sustainable agricultural technology and responsiveness to varying farmer demand. Collaborating with SPAAR, countries in the Sahel and SADCC regions are planning the improvement of their agriculral research systems. Other countries should follow suit, and donors should coUlaborate in implementing SPAAR's "Frameworks for Action". (d) At least four Sub-Saharan African countries (Botswana, Kenya, Mauritius and Zimbabwe) have, with considerable effort, succeeded in bringing down fertlity rates. Much more needs to be done here in all SSA countries, but these four provide relatively successful models. Several others countries are now developing promising populadon and family planning programs. Genuine and sustaiwd political commitment will be essential. Donor support should be channelled through the ongoing African Population Action Plans. (e) Improved health programs, including health education and the distribution of condoms, to address the A&DS problem are strting up in several countries. (f) The empowerment of local communities t manage development in each of the above areas is now beginning to be accepted in some countries; it requires much more effrt. (g) Slow land tenure reform, Inappropriate fuelwood pricing, and feeble mral infrastructure programs are major weak points everywhere. -127- 11.24 >s9- Nor st=rea o derSuzffgEfienynmaycuties o;g f sSubSaharan ATE>sfrica remainmral hWzfealt cmareand educ4atin ad pr cularly female emw~d uucaio) ni lmastmd ture promoting ea reom,soundg amiurbanizatdSionuply and efectvea. ?mily~ planning programs. 11.2 Seveal SSAu coun4~tra~ies arei pusing many of the policie Asugetd hre B bringn proection an reduction in huan fedityates.* .tya, Zibbe Bosana and liky tbefectve Others, such as Ghanaad Ta..a. ar. mvig ndh rib dmram on.~ a D. Condusion and Issues 11 24 Majo areaistofdeiency ined many oove ries ofnSuboSohsan Aiaddremai rualheaisesbfrth cfare andleducal. eion s(an parenticlal ferae education)yz rsa inrstutue promtiong prgrte particpto fboaeomuiisI developewhcadrste mgesnt syeffrts,foest amnd conervAtionvpoicy, land efetienr rpefom, eondvurbaenizalation plc,and reffurectisefml plan ningn prg ams.pasoldb 11.2ope Severalch countries ar phursuingld manaaysof the poices fcosuggested ere Byr brngin muc,o this together, they areis obthige posagitivesynseargch, bextwensagicultuald growsth,n envaironmna protctio andreatucthaison infumlodand friliydats.d Koepnyat imbsabwe privtewn ande uitmius; are sexamples.y tDhey stoglmugettact the typ ofmeasm umres rneommende her natrel lielysourbe neffective.an potherso,sc ashna land tanzania,fare. moigT he righo omn ut badiretion 1.26 be terihe nrewso aginstrumen nededfrgvelo nment and odcdonor oadestes susi is of al analytial. the issue prsenedher p mustw be analyzed simultanregously andacion progratms inorporate anr vactions plaufrpgovernens delonors ent, commnite tom adressr thes laIsses IAmostp far ettdermindth areasuplyofpopI agricultrldvopetand educ g. U mgation. d 1.2 -ntn tool fomuhpann ilb nertdpasfrrgossoigalcto ofln fo variou proe,ifatutrdeeomn,lntererfran nn z4eshp _tlo eadadspl,aporaearcltrltcnlg,lkl irto,adlkl - 128 - development of towns and cities. Most important will be the vastly greater community management of the execution of these plans. Communities and individuals must be given ownership of natural resources as an incentive for them to manage and conserve these resources. Better planning, particularly spatial planning, community and individual ownership of assets, and community management of implementation are the main directions in which donors and governments must move in the future. 1.28 Another key conclusion of this study is that agricultural sector analysis and planning do not make sense if they are undertaken in isolation from population planning and environment policy. Similarly, analysis of population or environmental ssues in isolation makes no sense. There is much to be gained by multi-sector analysis. Action, hc,wever, should be defined within single sectors to facilitate efficient implementation. 1.29 There are numerous issues which require more focused and detailed research. Among them are the following: (a) There is a need for further research to ascertain the relative importance of the various factors that influence human fertility decisions and trends. Gender-specific analysis is particularly essential in this area. (b) The expected impact of AIDS on population growth has been incorporated in the most recent population projections used here. However, given the difficulty of predicting its impact, the possible margin of error is considerable. More research is needed. Should AIDS turn out to have even more devastating impact on demographics than currently anticipated, improved health care, FP services and education focused on preventing sexually transmitted diseases and increasing the use of condoms could become the single most important intervention to be undertaken in Sub-Saharan Africa. (c) More analysis is needed concerning the productivity potential of the environmentally benign and 'sustainable' agricultural technologies identified. The environmental effects of "green revolution' technologies also need careful study. (d) Work is needed to determine and test the degree to which communities and community groups will be conservation-minded if and when natural resource management is turned over to them by governments. (e) Urbanization and the urban-rural link are important determinants of key aspects of the agricultur.-population-environment Nexus. More research is required in this direction. (f) There A some argument with the contention of this study that, although multi-sector planning is necessary, multi-sectoral projects to implement these plans may be undesirable. Specifically, some writers suggest that regional development plans could in many cases be implemented in an integrated fashion. Although this makes conceptual sense, the disappointing past experience with integrated rural development projects suggests that such programs are too complex to be managed as integrated wholes. How best to implement integrated location-specific plans through manageable components remains an issue to be explored. (g) The equity impact of these recommendations needs further scrutiny. Reducing open access to land, expanding the areas under protection, raising the price of woodfuels will - 129 - have negative eLfects on some of the poor. However, improved agricultural technology successful family planning, better access to rural health and education facilities and services, improved rural infrastructure, sound urban development will have positive impact on the poor. 11.30 The follow-up to this study has been launched. It includes the preparation of country- specific population, agriculture and environment nexus studies in COte dIvoire, Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria, Rwanda and the Sahelian countries as a group. These studies will help firm up the analytical framework and will be instrumental in adapting the analysis to the situation of specific countries. Follow-up also includes widespread incorporation of Nexus issues in both environmental action plans and investment projects. Concurrent monitoring is underway regarding the progress of preparation and implementation of national environmental action plans and of national population programs. The mechanism for the former is the 'Club of Dublin", consisting of representatives of African governments and donor agencies. The institutional mechanism for deepening the population agenda for SubSaharan Africa and for monitoring its progress is the African Population Advisory Committee, with similar membership. It is hoped that a similar African Agricultural Advisory Committee, managed by prominent Africans, will also be established. Annex: STATISTICAL TESTS OF KEY HYPOTHESES A. Methodology 1. Statistical analysis was undertaken to test several of the hypotheses discussed in this study. The statistical tests were highly imperfect because of lack of data and/or the poor quality of some of the available data. Reliable data on environmental resources and their degradation and/or destruction are particularly difficult to obtain, but agricultural statistics are also often of limited reliability. Demographic data are continually improving as a result of advances in sampling techniques and increasing support for information gathering from various sources. Nevertheless, considerable effort was devoted to data collection, represented in the statistical tables of this report. For the statistical analysis, data covering 38 countries of Sub-Saharan Africa were used. These are reproduced at the end of this annex. The methodology is cross-sectional, looking at statistical relationships among variables for which country observations are available.' 2. The hypotheses were tested by assuming that statistical associations in the variations in variables across countries will similarly reflect associations between changes in these variables over time within countries. If, for example, cereal yields are significantly higher in countries with less cultivated area per capita, the assumption implied here is that a decline in cultivated area per capita in a given country will provide a stimulus for farmers in that country to intensify their farming practices and thereby increase crop yields. This assumption is not necessarily true. Cross-country data at a given point in time are obviously not the same as data depicting developments in the same setting over a long period of time. Moreover, a good explanatory model is not necessarily a good predictive model. For these reasons, and others described below, the statistical analyses undertaken here cannot prove or verify the hypotheses posed in this study. The statistical analysis is useful for specifying more clearly the hypotheses of this study and for testing whether the available data, using cross-sectional regression analysis, are consistent or inconsistent with these hypotheses. 3. Because of the above problem, additional data are now being collected to re-test the hypotheses and determine the robustness of the results obtained. B. Variations in Crop Yields Among Countries 4. Many of the relationships hypothesized and discussed in this study cannot be investigated statistically using aggregated data. However, limited testing may establish the plausibility of several of the hypotheses: * Crop yields should be higher where population is growing most rapidly relative to cultivated land. People begin to intensify agriculture as cultivable area per person declines. Hence, statistical analysis should show an inverse relationship between area cultivated per person and crop yields (all other things equal). However, the hypothesis of the study suggests that the rate of growth in yields stimulated by declining availability of cultivable land per person will be significantly lower than the rate of population growth. T h role of women in agri r and tho effect of te land tnr siuon could not be quantified and trefome wore not teed in their impat on yields. - 132 - * Efforts to stimulate intensification (through the promotion of fertilizer use, for example) will significa'.- ^ accelerate the increase in crop yields beyond the growth rate stimulated by rising populatioi 1i';r.sity alone. This should be observed as higher yields in countries with higher intensities c fertilizer use (all other things equal). * Primary school education, of men and women, should facilitate farmer adoption of intensive farming techniques and therefore be associated with higher crop yields. * Ceterisparibus, countries with more rapid degradation of their natural resource endowment, as reflected in higher rates of deforestation, should have lower crop yields. * Finally, countries with a policy environment more accommodating for profitable market- oriented farming should have higher crop yields than countries with less conducive policies. 5. A statistical relationship was tested with cereal yields (average over 1984-86) as the dependent variable, using as independent variables: average cultivated area per person (average 1965- 1987), fertilizer use per ha in 1987/88 (fertilizer use remained fairly stable in the 1980s), the percentage of the school-age population in primary school (average 1965-1987), the rate of deforestation in the 1980s, and the general "appropriateness" of agricultural policy during the period 1980 to 1987. Except for the rate of deforestation and the dummy variable for policy "appropriateness", the values for each variable were converted to their natural logarithm and a regression equation was fit to these data; the coefficients reported below therefore represent elasticities. Policy appropriateness is represented by a dummy variable having the value 1 for countries where policy is judged to have been conducive to profitable agriculture, and 0 where it is judged to have been inappropriate. Of the 38 countries considered, 24 were judged to have pursued inappropriate policies, 14 appropriate; these judgements are highly subjective. 6. The equation is as follows, where the dependent variable is average cereal yields in 1984/86 (natural logarithm): ndependent Variable Coefficient T-stastic 2-Tail Significance Test 2 Constant 5.45 10.1 1% Cultivated area (ha) per person (a) -0.33 (b) 2.5 2% Fertilizer use per ha (a) 0.10 (b) 1.7 10% Primary school enrollment rate (a) 0.17 (b) 1.2 24% Deforestation rate -0.05 0.9 39% Agricultural policy dummy 0.30 1.9 7% Adjusted R squared = 0.45 F Statistic = 7.0 (a) Converted to natural logarithm. (b) Represents elasticity. 2 M 24ai lest idicates the probabDity of tX cocffict atualy being zoro. In th preent exUamVI, thee i, ts, a 2 paut probability of thee bing no siaa rlatianiip bawoee cukivated area per pon and ceral yields. - 133 - 7. The equation explains about 45 percent of the differences in cereal yields among the 38 countries. The unexplained portion of 55 percent is due to rainfall differences between countries, differences in land tenure problems (as hypothesized in the text), differences in soil degradation and soil fertility, and data problems. Each of the variables, except deforestation and primary school enrollment, is statistically significant at the 90 percent level or better in explaining variations in cereal yields across countries (i.e., a 10 percent probability or less that the coefficient is actually zero). 8. Consistent with the Boserup hypothesis, and w4h the !ypotheses advanced in this study, the lower the cultivated area per person, the higher are cev.Al yields, all other things being equal. The statistical relationship is highly significant. This suggests that as more people squeeze onto cultivated land, the pressure mounts for them to innovate and intensify production; it is true even when the use of fertilizer and other modem inputs, the policy environment and primary school enrollment rates are held constant. This reflects farmers' ability to respond to rising population density with simple innovations. 9. But, also consistent with the hypotheses, the coefficient is less than 1. This suggests that a 3.1 percent annual decline in cultivated area per person (due to population growth at this rate) will only stimulate people to intensify farming at a rate of about 1 percent per year - i.e., mucb slower than the rate of population growth itself. Without additional effort and support to promote more rapid intensification of farming, people - responding to population pressure alone - will be unable, or unwilling, to raise crop yields fast enough. Historically, this is indeed what has happened. Crop land expanded at a rate of somewhat less than 1 percent per annum, and yields increased on average by slightly more than 1 percent per annum, giving an agricultural output growth of slightly less than 2 percent per year for Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole for the 1965-1990 period. 10. A increase of 1 percent in fertilizer use is associated with a 0.1 percent increase in cereal yields. The coefficient is significant statistically. Since fertilizer use is extremely low in Sub-Saharzn Africa (averaging 85 grams per ha in 1987/88, compared to China, for example, where it is 2,360 glha), there is vast scope for increasing its use. This is also true for other modem tools and inputs (such as seeds of higher-yielding varieties), with which fertilizer use is highly correlated. Fertilizer use can therefore be considered a proxy for adoption of 'modem" farming technology, and the coefficient linking fertilizer use to cereal yields picks up the effect of the use of other modem inputs as well. Growth rates of fertilizer use (and other modern inputs) of 10-15 percent per year during the next decade are feasible. This would stimulate growth of cereal yields, according to this equation, by between 1.0 and 1.5 percent per year. 11. A 1 percent increase in the proportion of primary school-age children enrolled in school is associated with an 0.17 percent increase in cereal yields, although the statistical significance is below the normal 90 percent threshold level. The results are sufficiently interesting to suggest further testing of the hypothesis that a more literate and knowledgeable people make better farmers. A better educated population as a whole may have a positive impact on farm productivity. This makes sense, since in most African countries the majority of the adult population is either working in agriculture, in farm input supply, agricultural marketing and processing, or in agricultural support services. 12. The dummy variable representing the adequacy of agricultural policy is statistically significant in explaining cereal yield variaion among countries. A better policy environment is associated with higher yields, all other things being equal. The categorization of countries into those with acceptable and unacceptable policies during 1980-1987 (to coincide with cereal yields in 1984-1986 is consistent with the categorization by the World Bank; it is, however, highly subjective. - 134 - 13. Consistent with the hypothesis, countries experiencing the most rapid deforestation have lower cereal yields, all other things equal, but the statistical relationship is not significant. The rate of deforestation is an instrument variable intended to reflect the rate of natural resource degradation (soil, water, and forests) on land not yet directly within the farming cycle. The low degree of statistical significance of the association between this indicator and cereal yields may be due to the fact that deforestation itself is related to population density, population growth, fertilizer use, education levels, and agricultural policy, as indicated below. The impact of deforestation on cereal yields is then picked up directly by these other variables. Additional data is now being collected to further test this relationship. Variations In Yields of Major Individual Crops 14. The aggregation of different cereals into a single category obviously affects the quality of the equation in para. 6 above. Separate tests were therefore undertaken for maize, rice and sorghum, as well as for a major tuber crop, cassava, to determine the robustness of the results. These crop- specific tests face another problem: the lack of data on fertilizer use by crop. As the crop categories become, less aggregated, so should the independent variables, but this is precluded by the lack of data. 15. The results of the statistical tests using the same independent variables as for cereals, but with yields of the four different crops as dependent variables are set out below. 16. Maize, The results for maize (natural logarithm) are consistent with those for cereals as a group, except that the policy dummy and primary school enrollment show no significant association, nor does the rate of deforestation. Maize yields are closely related to cultivated hectare per person and fertilizer use. Independent Variable Coefficnt T-statistic 2-Tail Significance test Constant 2.05 3.4 1% Cultivated ha per person (a) -0.27 (b) 1.8 8% Fertilizer use per ha (a) 0.13 (b) 2.0 10% Primary school enrollment rate (a) 0.09 (b) 0.6 55% Deforestation rate -0.07 1.2 25% Agricultural policy dummy 0.10 0.5 61% Adjusted R squared = 0.24 F Statistic = 3.3 (a) Converted to naural logarithm. (b) Represents elasticity. 17. Sorgulm. The results for sorghum (natural logarithm) are also consistent with the general findings for cereals, except that fertflizer use is negatively associated with sorghum yields and, as in the case of maize, that primary school enrollment shows no relationship. The inverse relationship between aggregate fertilizer use intensity and sorghum is curious and beckons further investigation. There are reports in the agricultural literature of such results in dry areas. Sorghum yields appear to be most closely determined by agricultural policy, deforestation (sensitivity to environmental situation) and cultivated area per person. - 135 - Independent Variable Coefficient Tttsi 2-Tail Signflcance TstN Constant 2.24 3.7 1% Cultivated ha per person (a) -0.23 (O) 1.6 12% Fertilizer use per ha (a) -0.11 (b) 1.8 9% Primary school enrollment rate (a) 0.01 (b) 0.08 94% Deforestation rate -0.10 1.7 10% Agricultural policy dummy 0.36 2.1 5% Adjusted R squared = 0.11 F Statistic = 1.8 (a) Converted to natural logarithm. (b) Represents elasticity. 18. Rice The statistical relationship between rice yields (naural logarithm) and the set of independent variables show no significant statistical relationship. Unlike for maize and sorghum, the rate of deforestation, cultivated area per person, and the policy dummy have no association with rice yields. This is explainable by the more limited area, usually irrigated, on which rice is cultivated, and, therefore the lesser susceptibility to the environmental problems brought on by deforestation or land scarcity. The lack of association with ferdlizer use is surprising. Indegendent Variable Coefficient latstic 2-Tail Significance Test Constant 3.21 3.5 1% Cultivated ha per person (a) -0.17 (b) 0.8 34% fertilizer use per ha (a) 0.11 (b) 1.2 26% Primary school enrollment rate (a) -0.25 (b) 1.1 27% Deforestation rate -0.05 0.5 60% Policy dummy 0.40 1.5 15% Adjusted R squared = 0.11 F Statistic = 1.8 (a) Converted to natural logarithm. (b) Represents elasticity. 19. Casava Variation in cassava yields is very strongly associated with cultivated hectaes per person, in the manner suggested in the text, as well as with inertia. Fertilizer use, primary education, and the deforestadon rate have no impact. The policy dummy bas an inverse relationship with cassava yields, unlike the relationship with cereals, but the relationship has very weak statistical significance. There may however be some tendency to move out of cassava as agricultural policy improves, and commercial crops such as cereals become more profitable to produce. -136- Independent Variable Coefficient T-stati-aic 2-Tail Significance Test Constant 3.47 5.1 1% Cultivated ha per person (a) -0.70 (b) 4.2 1% Fertilizer use per ha (a) 0.00 (b) 0.1 96% Primary school enrollment rate (a) 0.00 (b) 0.0 99% Deforestation rate 0.05 0.6 55% Policy dummy -0.29 1.3 20% Adjusted R squared = 0.32 F Statistic = 3.9 (a) Converted to natural logarithm. (b) Represents elasticity. 20. Overall, the test results for each crop were consistent with the results for cereals as a whole. They suggest: (a) the importance of inertia (the constant term) in explaining the level of crop yields; (b) the strength of the Boserup hypothesis (more cultivated area per person is associated with lower crop yields except for irrigated rice where there is no relationship); (c) the importance of the use of fertilizer (and probably other modem farm inputs) in raising yields of commercial and fertilizer- responsive crops such as maize, but not for some traditional crops (sorghum and cassava); (d) the negative impact of deforestation on the more sensitive crops such as sorghum, but less impact on the hardy cassava or on irrigated rice; (e) the importance of good agricultural policy for cereal crops (rice and sorghum; but, oddly, not for maize), but not for the subsistence crop cassava. There is a lack of association between primary education and any of the yields of the individual crops. The statistical relationships are not strong, and further testing with new data is underway. 21. This analysis suggests the plausibility (although not the likelihood) of achieving 4 percent annual average agricultural growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Increased labor input per hectare, facilitated by population growth, would generate a 1 percent increase in annual output growth. A 15 percent annual increase in the use of fertilizer (and of other modern inputs) would generate an estimated 1.5 percent annual increase in yields. Allowing also for further expansion of cropped area at a rate of 0.5 percent per year (compared to the present rate of 0.7 percent per annum), this gives a total output growth rate of 3.5 percent per annum. The additional stimulus required to reach the postulated aggregate target of 4 psrcent growth per annum would need to come from more countries adopting more appropriate agricultural policy and from primary school enrollment increasing at 2 percent per year. In the longer run, however, as population growth slows, the scope for further policy improvement and expansion of cropped area narrows, sustaining 4 percent annual growth will become more difficult. It will depend increasingly on greater use of modern inputs and equipment, genetic improvements in crops and livestock, and improvements in general levels of education. This underscores the importance of improved agricultural research and extension and of general education. C. Variations in the Rate of Deforectation Among Countries 22. The analysis in Chapter IV suggests that deforestation is related positively to population pressure on cultivated area (the lower the cultivated area per person, the higher the rate of deforestation), to the rate of population growth (the higher the rate of population growth, the higher the rate of deforestation due to land clearing and fuelwood gathering), and with policies favorable to agriculture (the more profitable agriculture and logging, the more rapid the clearing of forests). It is negatively related with the use of modern farm inputs such as fertilizer (the greater the use of - 137- modem farm inputs, the lower the need to clear more forest land for farming). Open access land tenure situations were also hypothesized to stimulate deforestation, but this cannot be measured. 23. To test this hypothesis, regression analysis was undertaken with the rate of deforestation 1980-1988 as the dependent variable. Independent variables include the number of hectares cultivated per person (average 1965-1987), fertilizer use per hectare (1987/88), the population growth rate (1965-1990), and the agricultural policy dummy variable. The resulting equation is as follows: Independent Variable Coefficient T-statistic 2-Tail Significance Test Constant -0.54 0.41 69% Cultivated ha per person (a) -0.60 (b) 1.50 15% Fertilizer use per ha (a) -0.19 (b) 1.17 25% Population growth rate 0.56 1.40 17% Agricultural policy dummy 0.76 1.65 11% Adjusted R squared = 0.09 F statistic = 1.92 (a) Converted to natural logarithm. (b) Represents elasticity. 24. None of the variables is statistically significant at the 90 percent level or above, in its association with deforestation, although the agricultural policy dummy, cultivated hectares per person, and population growth are close enough to suggest further testing. All of the coefficients have signs consistent with the hypothesis. The overall equation does not explain well the variation among countries in the rate of deforestation. Evidentiy, a number of other unquantifiable factors are at play, such as the land tenure situatioL. r!fimate, and logging policies. No doubt, the poverty of the data also reduces the tightness of the fit. 25. Despite the poor overall fit of the equation, it suggests the possibility that countries with more cultivated area per person have lower rates of deforestation, all other things being equal. Countries with higher intensity of fertilizer use have somewhat lower rates of deforestation. Countries with more rapid population growth generally have higher rates of deforestation. Countries with policies that are conducive to agricultural development have higher rates of deforestation - implying a trade-off between agricultural growth and deforestation. 26. If further testing with better data confirms the statistical validity of these relationships, it will suggest that slowing population growth and intensifying agriculture would slow the rate of deforestation. Although poor agricultural policy (which usually also entails poor policy for the timber industry) would reduce deforestation, this is not a useful instrument to apply, because the objective of accelerating agricultural growth will take precedence over that of reducing deforestation in every country. Hence the importance of environmental action plans and land use planning, which develop mitigating actions to reduce the negadve environmental impact of agricultural development and which should serve to focus agricultural growth into environmentally less destructive channels (see Chapters VIII and IX). - 138 - D. Varioatios In the Los of Wilderness Areas Among Countries 27. Table 20 shows the percentage of wilderness area lost since about 1900 in each African country. As In the case of deforestation, it is hypothesized that the degree of wilderness loss is associated with declining levels of cultivable land per person, but is reduced by intensification of agriculture. An improved agricultural policy environment is likely to stimulate the destruction of wilderness area by farmers. In addition, it is hypothesized that better educated people will show more concem about the enviromnent and, hence, that countries with higher ra es of primary school enrollment will have lower rates of wilderness loss. 28. The statistical regression analysis uses the percentage of wilderness loss since 1900 as the dependent variable. The result is as follows: Independent Vaziable Coefficient T-stadstic 2-Tail Significance Test Constant 76.9 8.8 1% Cultivated ha per person (a) -7.2 (b) 1.4 17% Fertilizer use per ha (a) -2.6 (b) 1.1 28% Primary school enrollment rate -0.2 1.9 7% Agriculural policy dummy 11.0 1.8 8% AdjustedRsquared = 0.15 F statistic = 2.5 (a) Converted tn natural logarithm. (b) Represents elasticity. 29. The coefficients are consistent with the hypothesis, although cultivated hectares per person and fertlizer use per ha are not significant at the 90 percent level. The results are interesting enough to suggest the plausibility of the hypothesis, especially in conjunction with the site-specific evidence presented in the text. Further statistical testing is now underway. 30. The coefficients suggest the possibility that the greater the available area under cultivation per person, the lower the rate of wilderness loss. The higher the intensity of fertilizer use, the less the wilderness loss. The greater the percentage of school-age children in primary school, the lower the wilderness loss. Good agricultural policy is associated with high rates of wilderness loss - presumably because policy conducive to agricultural production growth stimulates acreage expansion when other means to increase farm output (e.g., modern inputs, sustainable intensification technologies) are unavailable. However, the overall equation explains only a small part of the variation among countries in the loss of wilderness areas. Factors such as land tenure, expanse of parks and reserves and government efficiency in managing these, and development of infrastructure in wilderness areas are likely to affect the maintenance of wilderness area. Data problems also explain some of the lack of fit. 31. If further testing e4ablishes the statistical validity of these results, the operational conclusion will be that a reduction in the rate of population growth, intensification of agriculture, and expanded primary school education would reduce the speed of wilderness loss. Since it would not be legitimate to distort agricultural policy significantly in order to conserve the wilderness, the negative impact on the wildernm of favorable agricultural policy will have to be offset. This again underscores the importance of envirc-mentl action plans and land use planning. Unfortunately, the statistical - 139 - analysis tells nothing of the need for land tenure reform, the desirability of expanding protected areas, and other actions to conserve the wilderness. E. Variations in Total Population FertilIty Rates Among Countries 32. Total fertility rates (IFRs) in Sub-Saharan Africa, shown in Table 2, are hypothesized to be related to the independent variables as follows: positively to infant mortality (the higher the expected loss of infants, the more births are desired in order to assure that there are some survivors); negatively to food security (the greater the food security, the lower the need for children to provide family labor for food production since other factors of production are available to substitute for child labor); negatively to female primary school enrollment (better educated women want smaller families); positively to cultivable land per person (the more cultivated land per person, the greater the need for family labor to help cultivate it since there are few other available factors of production and since open-access land tenure allows more land for households with more labor); and positively to the rate of deforestation (the higher the rate of deforestation, the greater the need for child labor to help with wood gathering and water fetching). 33. These hypotheses are tested by means of a statistical regression in which the TFR is the dependent variable. The result is as follows: Independent Varable Coefficient T-statitic 2-Tail Significance Test Constant 6.5 4.2 1% Female primary school enrollment rate -0.005 0.9 37% Cultivated ha per person (a) 0.16 (b) 0.6 53% Infant mortality rate 0.01 2.0 6% Calorie supply as % of requirement -0.02 1.2 25% Deforestation rate 0.29 2.4 2% Adjusted R squared = 0.4 F statistic = 5.5 (a) Converted to natural logarithm. (b) Represents elasticity. 34. The coefficients are consistent with the hypothesis, but only infant mortality, the rate of deforestation, and the constant term are statistically significant at the 90 percent level or better (i.e., with a two-tailed significance test of 10 percent or lower). The relatively poor fit of the equation and some of the variables may be explained by the poor data, as well as the fact that there is considerably more behind the explanation of TFRs than is explained here, such as age at first marriage for women, cultural links between female fecundity and social status, and so forth. As a result, an expanded data set is being developed to test the hypothesis using pooled cross country and time series data. 35. The statistical result, when combined with the site-specific evidence referenced in the test suggest that the higher the percentage of female primary school enrollment, the lower the TFR, although the coefficient is not statistically significant. The greater the area cultivated per person, the higher the TFR (although again the coefficient is not statistically significant). The higher the infant - 140- mortality rate, the higher the TFR. The better the level of nutrition, the lower the TFR.3 Better nutrition not only translates into better maternal and child health (and, hence, into lower infant and child mortality), but also reflects the ability to feed oneself and one's dependents with the available factors of production, including household labor, and this in turn lowers demand for child labor (one hypothesis of this study). The positive and significant correlation between better nutrition and lower TFRs may also reflect the beginnings of the demographic transition - as better-off people (having access to more food) reduce their family size. 36. The highly significant positive association between the rate of deforestation and the TFR is noteworthy: the higher the rate of deforestation, the higher the fertility rate. This may reflect, as hypothesized, the greater demand for child labor as environments deteriorate (greater distances to walk to obtain fuelwood and water and more labor required to produce sufficient food as the productivity of farm land deteriorates due to deforestation). Unfortunately, this type of analysis cannot establish causality, and causality may in fact be running in the opposite direction - i.e., higher fertility leading to faster population growth and more rapid deforestation. This apphii when holding infant moalit consnt (bater nultiion duces infant motality); the rlatonship here woris indc. - 141 - Data Used For The Statistical Analyses The data used in this statistical analysis are reproduced in the tables on the following pages. Each variable is identified with a code, given below, along with a definition of the variable and the source of the data used. The data in the statistical tables at the end of the book are the most recent available, in May 1992. The data used in the statistical analysis pre-dated this. POPG Population growth rate, annual average 1965-1990: World Bank (1991c) and the 1991 revision of World Bank demographic estimates and projections. INFM Infant mortality per 1000 live births, 1965-1990 average: World Bank (1991c). PRISC Primary school enrollment, % of age group, average 1965-1987: World Bank (199Ic). TOTFR Total fertility rate 1985-1989: World Bank (1991c) and the 1991 revision of World Bank demographic estimates and projections. FDSEC Average daily calorie intake per capita, 1988: World Bank (1991c). CAL% Average daily calorie supply per capita as percentage of minimum requirement, 1988. POL Agricultural policy appropriateness 1980-1987 (dummy variable); based on judgement by World Bank staff (1 = appropriate policy, 0 = inappropriate policy). DEFORS Average annual rate of deforestation in the 1980s: World Bank (1989d). WILDLS Total Percentage wilderness destruction, 1900 to present: WR1IJIED (1988). FERT Fertilizer use per ha (100 g/ba), 1987/89: World Bank (1991c). PRIF Primary school enrollment of females, average 1965-1988, % of age group: World Bank (1991c). CERY Cereal yields, kg/ha, 19841986: FAO Production Series. MZ Maize yields, hundred kg/ha, 1989; source: FAO Production Series. RIC Rice yields, hundred kg/ha, 1989; source: FAO Production Series. SOR Sorghum yields, hundred kg/ha, 1989; source: FAO Production Series. CAS Cassava yields, hundred kg/ha, 1989; source: FAO Production Series. PCLD65 Per capita arable land actually cultivated, 1965 (ha/person): Table 17. PCLD87 Per capita arable land actually cultivated, 1987 (ha/person): Table 17. PCLDA Average per capita arable land actually cultivated, 1965-1987 (halperson): Table 17. - 142 - FDSEC CAL% POL PCLDA Benin 2184.000 95.00000 1.000000 0.500000 Burkina Faso 2139.000 90.00000 0.000000 0.450000 Burundi 2343.000 101.0000 1.000000 0.300000 :AR 1949.000 86.00000 0.000000 0.850000 Mhad 1717.000 72.00000 0.000000 0.750000 Ethiopia 1749.000 75.00000 0.000000 0.400000 rhe Gambia 2517.000 106.0000 1.000000 0.250000 ;hana 1759.000 76.00000 0.000000 0.250000 -uinea 1776.000 77.00000 0.000000 0.300000 ,uiniea Bissau 2186.000 95.00000 0.000000 0.450000 Kenya 2068.000 89.00000 1.000000 0.150000 resotho 2303.000 101.0000 0.000000 0.300000 .iberia 2381.000 103.0000 1.000000 0.250000 4adagascar 2440.000 107.0000 0.000000 0.350000 -alavi 2310.000 100.0000 1.000000 0.400000 tali 2073.000 88.00000 0.000000 0.350000 (auritania 2322.000 101.0000 0.000000 0.150000 liger 2432.000 103.0000 0.000000 0.550000 ligeria 2149.000 91.00000 0.000000 0.400000 hmrLda 1830.000 79.00000 1.000000 0.200000 ierra Leone 1854.000 81.00000 1.000000 0.550000 ;omalia 2138.000 93.00000 0.000000 0.250000 Wudan 2208.000 94.00000 0.000000 0.700000 ranzania 2192.000 94.00000 0.000000 0.250000 rogo 2207.000 96.00000 1.000000 0.550000 Jganda 2344.000 101.0000 0.000000 0.500000 :aire 2163.000 97.00000 0.000000 0.250000 ,ambia 2026.000 97.00000 0.000000 1.000000 Ingola 1880.000 80.00000 0.000000 0.500000 lotswana 2201.000 95.00000 0.000000 1.550000 :ameroon 2028.000 87.00000 1.000000 0.800000 :ongo 2619.000 118.0000 0.000000 0.450000 CI 2562.000 111.0000 1.000000 0.450000 ,abon 2521.000 108.0000 0.000000 0.400000 lauritius 2748.OCO 121.0000 1.000000 0.100000 -enegal 2350.000 99.00000 0.000000 0.950000 ovaziland 2578.000 111.0000 1.000000 0.300000 limbabwe 2132.000 89.00000 1.000000 0.400000 _ 143 - obs DEFORS WILDLS FERT PRIF Benin 1 1.700000 60.00000 49.00000 32.00000 Burkina Faso 2 1.700000 80.00000 57.00000 16.00000 Burundi 3 2.700000 86.00000 20.00000 33.00000 CAR 4 0.200000 56.00000 4.000000 40.00000 Chad 5 0.600000 76.00000 17.00000 21.00000 Sthiopia 6 0.300000 70.00000 39.00000 17.00000 The Gambia 7 2.400000 89.00000 40.00000 NA Ghana 8 0.800000 80.00000 38.00000 62.00000 Guinea 9 0.800000 70.00000 6.000000 19.00000 Guinea Bissau 10 2.700000 78.00000 6.000000 NA Kenya 11 1.700000 48.00000 421.0000 66.00000 Lesotho 12 2.500000 68.00000 125.0000 119.0000 Liberia 13 2.300000 87.00000 94.00000 23.00000 Madagascar 14 1.200000 75.00000 21.00000 77.00000 Malawi 15 3.500000 57.00000 203.0000 49.00000 Kali 16 0.500000 79.00000 59.00000 17.00000 Mauritania 17 2.400000 81.00000 55.00000 25.00000 Niger 18 2.600000 77.00000 8.000000 14.00000 Nigeria 19 2.700000 75.00000 94.00000 36.00000 Rwanda 20 2.300000 87.00000 20.00000 55.00000 Sierra Leone 21 0.300000 85.00000 22.00000 31.00000 Somalia 22 0.100000 41.00000 40.00000 9.000000 Sudan 23 0.200000 70.00000 40.00000 21.00000 Tanzania 24 0.300000 43.00000 92.00000 46.00000 Togo 25 0.700000 66.00000 76.00000 55.00000 Uganda 26 0.800000 78.00000 2.000000 36.00000 Zaire 27 0.200000 55.00000 15.00000 55.00000 Zambia 28 0.300000 29.00000 183.0000 69.00000 Angola 29 0.200000 39.00000 29.00000 26.00000 Botsvana 30 0.100000 56.00000 7.000000 95.00000 Cameroon 31 0.400000 59.00000 71.00000 89.00000 Congo 32 0.100000 49.00000 25.00000 94.00000 RCI 33 5.200000 79.00000 90.00000 41.00000 Gabon 34 0.100000 35.00000 46.00000 122.0000 Mauritius 35 0.000000 95.00000 3075.000 101.0000 Senegal 36 0.500000 82.00000 40.00000 39.00000 Swaziland 37 0.000000 56.00000 125.0000 34.00000 Zimbabwe 38 0.400000 56.00000 505.0000 109.0000 - 144 - obs CERY MZ RIC SOR CAS Benin 1 825.0000 9.500000 12.90000 7.900000 83.20000 Burkina Faso 2 690.0000 11.60000 20.50000 7.200000 53.30000 Burundi 3 1101.000 11.20000 35.00000 12.40000 114.5000 UAR 4 513.0000 10.30000 14.00000 11.10000 32.90000 chad 5 531.0000 4.600000 28.50000 5.800000 45.80000 Ethiopia 6 1081.000 17.80000 NA 11.50000 NA rhe Gambia 7 1207.000 13.80000 14.30000 10.40000 30.00000 Ehana 8 969.0000 13.20000 10.30000 8.600000 80.20000 vuinea 9 728.0000 11.50000 9.000000 14.20000 50.00000 ouinea Bissau 10 848.0000 8.000000 13.70000 5.800000 NA Kenya 11 1611.000 18.80000 44.20000 9.800000 95.40000 Lesotho 12 683.0000 7.500000 NA 5.600000 NA Liberia 13 1302.000 NA 11.90000 NA 80.00000 fadagascar 14 1731.000 10.60000 20.80000 6.000000 66.50000 ftlawi 15 1162.000 11.90000 17.90000 6.700000 21.30000 tali 16 807.0000 12.90000 15.40000 9.400000 91.30000 4auritania 17 431.0000. 6.700000 40.30000 7.600000 NA Higer 18 366.0000 16.00000 22.60000 3.000000 76.40000 figeria 19 1121.000 10.70000 20.00000 10.90000 126.9000 tbanda 20 1289.000 11.80000 26.70000 9.500000 72.00000 Sierra Leone 21 1431.000 7.100000 13.00000 23.80000 33.10000 ;omalia 22 725.0000 10.40000 31.00000 5.300000 104.7000 ;udan 23 508.0000 5.700000 10.00000 4.000000 15.00000 .anzania 24 1109.000 16.00000 16.30000 9.800000 90.00000 !ogo 25 865.0000 10.70000 14.20000 7.800000 74.30000 Iganda 26 949.0000 10.00000 11.10000 14.40000 73.50000 !aire 27 851.0000 9.000000 9.100000 9.100000 73.80000 lambia 28 1747.000 20.60000 9.300000 7.100000 36.00000 Lugola 29 461.0000 2.900000 10.00000 NA 38.40000 lotsvana 30 178.0000 3.000000 NA 4.100000 NA :ameroon 31 935.0000 10.20000 52.80000 11.90000 25.50000 :ongo 32 622.0000 9.100000 2.500000 NA 72.60000 tcI 33 981.0000 6.900000 12.00000 6.600000 56.50000 ,abon 34 1481.000 17.1UOOO 20.00000 NA 61.10000 Lauritius 35 3200.000 36.60000 40.00000 NA 150.0000 ;enegal 36 709.0000 14.10000 21.20000 9.700000 36.50000 waziland 37 1528.000 16.90000 75.00000 8.000000 NA imbabwe 38 1468.000 16.20000 28.00000 5.100000 39.10000 - 145 - POPG INFM PRISC TOTFR Benin 3.000000 139.0000 49.00000 6.400000 Burkina Faso 2.500000 164.0000 22.00000 6.500000 Burundi 2.600000 106.0000 47.00000 6.800000 CAR 2.500000 133.0000 61.00000 5.800000 Chad 2.300000 155.0000 43.00000 6.000000 Ethiopia 3.000000 148.0000 24.00000 7.500000 The Gambia 3.100000 168.0000 48.00000 6.500000 Ghana 2.900000 102.0000 70.00000 6.300000 Guinea 2.200000 168.0000 30.00000 6.500000 Guinea Bissau 2.300000 168.0000 43.00000 6.000000 Kenya 3.700000 90.00000 75.00000 6.900000 Lesotho 2.600000 119.0000 104.0000 5.700000 Liberia 3.100000 132.0000 38.00000 6.400000 Madagascar 2.800000 159.0000 93.00000 6.500000 Malawi 3.200000 174.0000 55.00000 7.600000 Mali 2.400000 187.0000 23.00000 7.000000 Mauritania 2.500000 150.0000 33.00000 6.800000 Niger 3.000000 155.0000 20.00000 7.100000 Nigeria 3.000000 138.0000 55.00000 6.600000 Rwanda 3.200000 129.0000 60.00000 8.300000 Sierra Leone 2.300000 179.0000 44.00000 6.500000 Somalia 2.900000 146.0000 13.00000 6.800000 Sudan 2.900000 132.0000 39.00000 6.300000 Tanzania 3.500000 120.0000 49.00000 7.100000 Togo 3.400000 121.0000 78.00000 6.700000 Uganda 3.200000 109.0000 69.00000 7.300000 Zaire 3.000000 117.0000 73.00000 6.100000 Zambia 3.500000 98.00000 75.0C000 6.700000 Angola 2.700000 131.0000 66.00000 6.500000 Botswana 3.300000 75.00000 90.00000 4.800000 Cameroon 3.100000 116.0000 102.0000 6.500000 Congo 3.200000 116.0000 114.0000 6.600000 RCI 4.100000 121.0000 65.00000 7.300000 Gabon 3.400000 125.0000 130.0000 5.700000 Mauritius 1.200000 43.00000 104.0000 1.900000 Senegal 3.000000 123.0000 50.00000 6.500000 Svaziland 3.200000 131.0000 92.00000 6.400000 Zimbabwe 3.200000 74.00000 123.0000 5.000000 .mmmimmmnmmmnmmm__inmmmmim_im_nminmmm_ - 146 - Obs PCLD37 PCLC65 lenin 1 0.400000 0.600000 aurkina Faso 2 0.400000 0.500000 lurundi 3 0.300000 0.300000 CAR 4 0.700000 1.000000 .had 5 0.600000 0.900000 Ethiopia 6 0.300000 0.500000 rhe Gambia 7 0.200000 0.300000 Bhana 8 0.200000 0.300000 Buinea 9 0.200000 0.400000 Buinea Bissau 10 0.400000 0.500000 Cenya 11 0.100000 0.200000 Lesotho 12 0.200000 0.400000 Uiberia 13 0.200000 0.300000 -adagascar 14 0.300000 0.400000 alawi 15 0.300000 0.500000 tali 16 0.300000 0.400000 -auritania 17 0.100000 0.200000 liger 18 0.500000 0.600000 ligeria 19 0.300000 0.500000 twanda 20 0.200000 0.200000 ierra Leone 21 0.500000 0.600000 ;omalia 22 0.200000 0.300000 ;udan 23 0.500000 0.900000 ranzania 24 0.200000 0.300000 rogo 25 0.400000 0.700000 Jganda 26 0.400000 0.600000 laire 27 0.200000 0.300000 lambia 28 0.700000 1.300000 Lngola 29 0.400000 0.600000 lotswana 30 1.200000 1.900000 :amezoon 31 0.600000 1.000000 :ongo 32 0.300000 0.600000 tCI 33 0.300000 0.600000 ;abon 34 0.400000 0.400000 lauritius 35 0.100000 0.100000 'enegal 36 0.800000 1.100000 iwaziland 37 0.200000 0.400000 :imbabwe 38 0.300000 0.500000 Statistical Appendix Table No. Eag 1. Sub-SaharanAfrica: basic indicators .... ... .......................... 148 2. Sub-Saharan Africa: population growth and fertilit rates ......... 149 3. Sub-Saharan Africa: crude birth and death rates, infant and child mortality rates, 1965 and 1990 ............................................ 150 4. Population estimates and projections based on targeted decline of 50 percent in total fertility rate by 2030 ........................... 151 5. Sub-Saharan Africa: required contraceptive prevalence rates for achieving population projections in Table 4 ....................... 152 6. Demand for contraception and its components among currenty married women .... . 153 7. Developing countries by strength of family planning programs, 1989 .... ........ 154 8. Total fertility rates, desired number of children, infant and child mortality rates, and contraceptive prevalence rates ............................... 155 9. Sub-Saharan Africa: performance of the agricultural sector ................. 156 10. Sub-Saharan Africa: food security .......... ........ .............. 157 11. Sub-Saharan Africa: crop yields ......................... 158 12. Sub-Saharan Africa: growth rates of cereal and major export crop yields .... ..... 159 13. Sub-Saharan Africa: agricultural exports - value and volume ................ 160 14. Sub-Saharan Africa: producer price shares ............................ 161 15. Sub-Saharan Africa: irrigation and fertilizer use ......................... 162 16. Sub-SaharanAfrica: landuse .................................... 163 17. Sub-Saharan Africa: per capita arable land ............................ 164 18. Sub-Saharan Africa: forest area and deforestation ....................... 165 19. Sub-Saharan Africa: fuelwood supply and demand ....................... 166 20. Sub-Saharan Africa: wildlife habitat loss in Afrotropical nations, 1986 .... ...... 167 21. Sub-Saharan Africa: droughts .................................... 168 22. Soil erosion in selected countries of Sub-Saharan Africa, 1970-86 .............. 169 23. Extent of soil degradation in major regions of the world, early 1980s .... ....... 170 24. Results of financial and economic analyses of various land resource management technologies ..................... 171 -148- ITable le flask IndIcators Phnamry Population AX"a GNP 1 vr Life School Adult Country (millions) (thods. sq. capita Expectancy enrollment illteracy (age kmn) (US$) (years) (prerentage) 15+) of ar- group) Mid-1990 1990 1965 1990 1965 1989 1990 Sub-Saharan Africa 495.2 340 43 51 44 69 50 Angola 10.0 1,247 . 3 .' 46 39 94 58 Benin 4.7 113 360 42 50 34 65 77 Botawana 1.3 582 2,040 48 67 65 ill 26 Burkina Faso 9.0 274 330 38 48 12 35 82 Burundi 5.4 28 210 44 47 26 71 so Cameroon 11.7 475 960 46 57 94 101 46 Cape Verde . .. .. Centmal African Rep. 3.0 623 390 40 49 56 64 6 Chad 5.7 1,284 190 46 47 34 57 70 Comoros . .. .. Congo 2.3 342 1,01'0 4 53 114 ..43 Cote d'Ivoire 11.9 322 750 42 55 60 ..46 Djibouti . .. .. Equatorial Guinea . .. .. Ethiopia 51.2 1,222 120 43 48 11 3 Gabon 1.1 268 3,330 42 53 134 ..39 Gambia, T'he . .. .. Ghana 14.9 239 390 48 55 69 75 40 Guinea 5.7 246 440 35 43 31 34 76 Guinea-Bissau . .. .. Kenya 24.2 580 370 48 59 54 94 31 Lesotho 1.8 30 530 48 56 94 110 Liberia 2.6 11ll. 44 54 41 ..61 Madagascar 11.7 587 230 43 51 65 92 20 Malawi 8.5 118 200 39 46 44 67 Mali 8.5 1,240 270 38 48 24 23 68 Mauritania 2.0 1,026 500 37 47 13 51 66 Mauritius 1.1 2 2,250 61 70 101 103 Mozambique 15.7 802 80 38 47 37 68 67 Niger 7.7 1,267 310 37 45 11 28 72 Nigeria 115.5 924 290 42 52 32 70 49 Rwanda 7.1 26 310 49 48 53 69 so Sao Tome and Principe . .. .. Senegal 7.4 197 710 41 47 4 86 Seychelles . .. .. SiermLeone 4.1 72 240~ 33 42 29 5379 Somalia 7.8 638 120 38 48 10 ..76 Sudan 25.1 2,506 .. 40 50 29 ..73 Swaziland . .. .. Tanzani 24.5 945 110O 43 48 32 63, Togo 3.6 57 410 42 54 55 103 57 Ugpnda 16.3 236 220 45 47 67 77 52 Zaire 37.3 2,345 220 43 52 70 78 28 Zambia 8.1 753 420 44 s0 53 95 27 Zimbabwe 9.8 391 640 48 61 110 125 33 India 849.5 3,288 350 45 59 74 98 52 China 1,133.7 9,561 370 53 70 89 135 27 Note: Excludes Namibia, South Africa, REunion, Ascension, St. Helena, and Tristan da Cunha. Source: World Bank, World Indicators, 1992. -149- Table 2: SublSabaa Afrks: popultion grwth ran and tertdy rates Averge Annual Growtb of Population (pert Tol Frt ProJeed 1990- Rase a Country 196540 1980-90 2000 1 196S 1990 Sub-Sahar Africa 2.7 3.1 3.0 6.6 6.5 Angola 2.8 2.5 3.0 6.4 6.5 3enin 2.7 3.2 2.9 6.8 6.3 Botawana 3.S 3.4 2.S 6.9 4.7 Burkina Faso 2.1 2.6 2.9 6.4 6.5 Burundi 1.9 2.8 3.1 6.4 6.8 Cameroon 2.7 3.2 2.9 5.2 5.8 Cape Vesde 1.6 2.4 2.8 - - CAR 1.9 2.7 2.5 4.S 5.8 Chad 2.0 2.4 2.7 6.0 6.0 Comoro$ 2.2 3.S - - Congo 2.8 3.S 3.3 5.7 6.6 Cote d'lvoite 4.1 4.0 3.S 7.4 6.7 Djibouti 3.3 Eq. Guinea 1.7 1.9 2.3 Ethiopia 2.7 2.9 3.4 5.8 7.S Gabon 3.6 3.9 2.8 4.1 S.7 The Ganbia 3.0 3.3 3.1 Ghana 2.2 3.4 3.0 6.8 6.2 Guinea 1.5 2.4 2.8 5.9 6.S Guinea-Bisa 2.9 1.9 - Kenya 3.6 3.8 3.S 8.0 6.5 Lestho 2.3 2.7 2.6 5.8 5.6 Liberia 3.0 3.2 2.6 Madagasa 2.5 2.8 2.8 6.6 6.3 Malawi 2.9 3.4 3.4 7.8 7.6 Mali 2.1 2.4 3.0 6.5 7.1 Mauriani 2.3 2.6 2.8 6.5 6.8 Mauritus 1.6 1.0 0.9 4.8 1.9 Mozambique 2.' 2.7 3.0 6.8 6.4 Niger 2.6 3.S 3.3 7.1 7.2 Nigeria 2.S 3.3 2.8 6.9 6.0 Rwanda 3.3 3.3 3.9 7.5 8.3 Sao Tome & Prineipe 2.1 2.7 - - Senegai 2.9 3.0 3.1 6.4 6.S Seychelles 1.9 0.7 1.0 - Sierra Leone 2.0 2.4 2.6 6.4 6.5 Somalia 2.7 3.0 3.1 6.7 6.8 Sudan 2.8 3.1 2.8 6.7 6.3 Swaziland 2.8 3.3 3.5 - - Tanzania 3.3 3.5 3.1 6.6 6.6 Togo 3.0 3.S 3.2 6.S 6.6 Uganda 2.9 3.2 3.3 7.0 7.3 Zaire 2.8 3.1 3.0 6.0 6.2 Zambia 3.0 3.9 3.1 6.6 6.7 Zimbabwe 3.1 3.7 2.4 8.0 4.9 India 2.3 2.2 2.0 6.2 4.0 China 2.1 1.4 1.7 6.4 2.5 Projections are based on presn teds. Hence the dight decline in gwth redlts only from the dightly declining trend in a few countrie. Tho projaions include the positdon Impact of HIV. rhey do not include the Impact of more uccesful popu;on prOgrms. Total fertility rate (1FR) Is the aver8e number of children who would be bom alive to a woman (or group ot women) during her lifetime if she wero to pas trougb her chidbeaig year confirming to the ageospeofic fdtility re of a given year. -150- Table 3: crude birth and death rates, Infant and child mortality rates, 1965 and 1990 Child morta ;ty Crude birth Crude death Infant mortalty (under nge 5) Country rate per 1,000 rate per 1,000 per 1,000 per 1,000 population population five births ve births 1965 1990 1965 1990 196S 1990 1965 1990 Sub Saharan Africa 48 46 23 16 157 107 Angola 49 47 29 19 130 312 209 Benin 49 46 23 1S 166 113 261 154 Botswana 53 35 19 6 112 38 160 '43 Burkina Faso 48 47 26 18 193 134 320 193 Burundi 47 49 24 18 142 107 237 98 Cameroun 40 41 20 12 143 88 230 118 Cape Verde 176 47 Cental African Rep. 34 42 24 16 157 101 270 152 Chad 45 44 28 18 183 12S 302 201 Comoros 193 124 Congo 42 48 18 1S 129 116 184 165 Cote d'lvoire 52 45 22 12 149 95 260 140 Djibouti 183 Equatorial Guinea 291 193 Ethiopia 43 51 20 18 165 132 273 186 Gabon 31 42 22 15 153 97 250 149 Gambia 350 221 Ghana 47 44 18 13 120 85 197 129 Guinea 46 48 29 21 191 138 321 219 Guinea-Bissau 291 227 Kenya 52 45 20 10 112 67 179 96 Lesotho 42 40 18 12 142 93 194 127 Liberia 46 44 20 14 176 136 282 174 Madagascar 47 45 22 1S 201 116 153 164 Malawi 56 54 26 20 200 147 347 235 Mali 50 50 27 19 207 166 363 220 Mauritania 47 48 26 19 178 122 281 196 Mauritius 36 17 8 6 65 21 93 23 Mozambique 49 46 27 18 179 137 294 194 Niger 48 51 29 20 180 128 296 207 Nigeria 51 43 23 14 16' 98 290 152 Rwanda 52 54 17 18 141 120 237 188 Sao Tome and Principe 47 Senegal 47 45 23 17 160 81 290 110 Seychelles 7 21 Sierra Leone 48 47 31 22 208 147 38S 231 Somalia S0 48 26 18 165 126 273 204 Sudan 47 44 24 1S 160 102 263 160 Swaziland 220 140 Tanzania 49 48 23 18 138 11S 228 138 Togo so 48 22 14 153 88 238 134 Uganda 49 S1 19 19 119 117 197 149 Zaire 47 45 21 14 141 94 232 140 Zambia 49 49 20 1S 121 82 192 109 Zimbabwe 55 37 17 8 103 49 165 50 India 45 30 20 11 1S0 92 239 113 China 38 22 10 7 90 29 113 2 Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators, 1992 Table 4. Sub-Saharan Africa: population estimates and projections based on targeted decline of 50 percent in total fertility irate by 2030 ftpulatio suev H thetkcalsaae Anupopuiato,sgrowh Asumedyw OAD&W ~~~~of statony (perent Total feaflai rate of re&dWag opouwItaon Net Reprodction Cotata 1980 1990 2020 2030 (inlyww 19995 2020.25 2025-30 .!990-95 2020-25 2025-2030 Rate - = 5.h4 abau Ada 350.8 494.4 1.169.1 1.470.8 3.040 3.02 2.24 11.99 6.24 3.60 3.10 2055 Asgdob 7.1 10.0 23.9 30.4 69 2.85 2.S4 2.22 6.56 4.34 3.59 2045 swim 34 4'7 10.3 12.1 21 2.92 1.85 1.59 5.99 3.00 2.53 203 8oSursa .. 1.3 2.3 2.6 4 2.79 1.37 11.24 4.33 2.07 2.06 2015 suig*jgFMn 61 9.0 20.6 25.6 52 2.82 2.33 '1.96 6.50 3.95 3.20 2045 4.11 5.5, 13.0 18.1 33 3.05 2.39 2.28 6.80 3.74 3.5,0 204 C&TAmsO 8A 11.9 29.6 36.4 75 3.06 2.43 2.02 6.24 3.67 2.91 2040 CapeVede .. 0.4 0.7 0.9 1 2.85 1.61 1.52 4.66 2.17 2.07 2025 Csta" Ahica p 2.3 3.0 6.2 7.3 13 2.56 1.81 1.57 S.54 3.10 2.59 2035 Chad 4.5 5.7 12.2 14.9 30 2.56 2.16 1.86 6.03 3.75 3.09 2040 Corrmo=. 0.5 I.2 114 3 3.40 2.33 1.81 6.49 3.43 2.65 2035 coqoLftoews . 1.6 2.3 5.9 7.5 1 7 3.111 2.72 2.23 6.40 4.17 3.24 2045 Otedhohe 8. 12.2 32.9 41.. 95 3.69 2.65 2.16 7.01 4.17 3.24 2045 0~~iheuti .. ~~~~ 0.4 1.0 1.2 2 3.20 2.11 1.76 6.60 3.54 2.90 204 EupatwWGuinwe. 0.4 0.7 0.9 1 2.24 1.63 1.43 5.50 3.01 2.61 2035 ift"rl 31.1 50.5 134.5 180.9 474 3.1/ 2.98 2.65 7.50 4.95 4.20 2050 Gabon .. 1.1 2.6 3.2 7 2.64 2.46 2.01 5.71 4.06 3.IS 2045 Gau0bia. The .. 0.9 2.' 2.5 5 2.90 2.40 2.14 6.50 4A46 3.80 2045 Gham 11.7 14.9 32.4 37.7 67 2.98 1.86 1.43 5.89 2.92 2.77 2030 GUM"l SA 5.7 12.3 166 34 2.50 2.36 2.16 6.50 4.46 3.80 204S GukineaBisaua I..0 1.9 2.3 4 2.06 1.94 1.69 6.00 3.95 3.37 2040 SW" 1~.a. 24.1 56.4 78.7 113 3.40 1.85 2.04 6.32 2.58 2.80 2040 LacUso 1.3 1.8 3.4 3.9 6 2.59 1.54 1.26 5.29 2.52 2.12 2025 1.85.ia 1.9 2.5 5.4 6.6 1 1 2.76 1.82 1.56 5.99 2.98 2.49 2035 11a0a,639w 8. 11.5 22.7 31.0 42 2.60 1.52 1.46 5.59 2.69 2A42 2030A MatMa 6.1 8.5 22.9 30.2 79 3.49 2.94 2.63 7.60 5.05 4.30 2050 MA ~~~~~7.0 8.5 20.8 26.9 63 2.88 2.73 2.41 7.06 4.62 3.87 2050 Miulnitai 1.5 2.0 4.7 6.2 1 4 2.64 2.57 2.48 6.50 4.46 4.10 2050 ma'.idu . 1.1 1.3 1.4 2 0.81 0.45 0.48 1.75 2.01 2.05 2030 Mieauiqe 12.1 15.8 36.9 45.4 93 3.06 2.33 1.95 6.521 3.90 3.13 2040 Nirmbi .. 13 2.9 3.4 62.94 1.70 1.43 5.58 2.59 2.20 2030 149e 5. 17.7 20.7 27.8 a3' 3.14 3.07 2.84 7.19 5.32 4.85 2055 idguI 84.7 117.2 271.7 324.0 622 3.06 2.09 1.70 6.25 3.30 2.62 2035 RmAon ~~~~~0.6 0.8 0.9 1 .50 0.82 0.75 2.16 2.05 2.04 1995 Made i~~~.2 7.1 20.0 28.2 71 3.85 3.03 2.83 6.00 4.94 4.39 l055 SSIoTOsu8*dwnope .. 0.1 0.2 0.3 .2.50 1.36 1.19 4.74 2.17 2.06 2025 Senga 5.? 74 18.1 22.7 48 3.13 2.48 2.09 6.50 3.95 3.20 204S Se"ihis . 0.1 0.1 0.1 .1.06 0.96 0.90 2.83 2.09 2.07 2005 SierLaca 3.s 4.1 9.1 11.4 25 2.51 2.38 2.13 6.50 t.46: 3.8 2045 sarnab 3.9 6.3 14.9 18.81 41 2.96 2.47 2.13 6.77 4.22 3A7 2045 Sudan 18. 25.1 52.3 61.7 108 2.74 1.82 1.55 6.01 313 2.82 2035 ~Iswd .. 0. 1.8 2.2 4 3.15 1.97 1.67 5.99 2.97 2.49 2035 TaSsasli 187 24.9 63.6 86.9 189 3.31 2.33 2.55 6.40 3.56 4.03 2050 tlog 2.5, 3.6 8.5 10.2 19 3.23 2.12 1.74 0.29 3.23 2.61 2035 U911dIf 12.6 17.4 44.8 56. 129 3.49 2.65 2.22 7.30 4.24 3.40 204 Zabe 28.3 35.6 79.0 93.8 175 2.91 1.97 1.65 5.80 3.18 2.6 2035 iambi 5.81 8.1 21.2 26.4 57 3.47 2.56- 2.10 6.46 3.84 3.02 2080 mb~abwe 7.4 9.8 18. 20.9 29 2.88 1.37 1.25 4.S5 2.07 . A 2015 South. AZale 29.3 35.9 61.6 68.8 96 2.33 1.16 1.09 4.08 2.08 2.06 2020 blob 673 2 849.7 126.11 1.412.1 1.870 1.82 0.97 0.87 3.74 2.15 2.12 2015 Casim 976.7 t.122.0 1.,1I2.4 l.614.4 1891 37 0.70 0.61 2.28 2.08 2.08 2000 i odat INS le@W 508.001). b Exadudis South Ahlc& a hpquic msumn VWi & 50 pecasI deche in the tota hithtyrate bans th 19B5 heal *8 be attained C. hius when dse Ne twRsoduction Rate MM85 eaKh.nes theO age etructuse n usch lhat he mnubet of dwug 2025.30. These prwsiassss tattepKeodne a the tuluew*8be tigikattl ia woaemna.o e oew ie'cidebgpesgunet oa etseedn s oa mis tsAhan Noth'do linobiewve deifti 7he popuibaio. therelre. *11 inueai for S fuuth conWdeaW pe od beor reaching its hkpcdseuc t5aion"Iiftda. Al countrit am re - e to readh sutitisiy poputitani w Om' thee of dhe 22d castuy. Somae: VAioI Bask. preNWnulyi 1991 rethM of danogrphices ua5 aNW pl*oMalos - 152- Table S. Sub-Saharan Africa: required contraceptive prevalence rates for achieving population projections in Table 4. Estimated contraceptive prevalence rates (percent) Co !ntry 1990 2020 2025 2030 Angola 4.0 30.9 34.9 38.8 Botswana 35.8 63.5 68.1 72.8 Burkina Faso 7.0 36.2 41.0 45.7 Burundi 12.5 46.9 52.1 57.2 Cameroon 7.9 42.4 47 6 52.6 Chad 6.1 35.2 39.9 44.4 Cote d'lvore 7.8 41.7 46.8 51.7 Ethiopia 4.6 27.6 31.9 36.4 Ghana 16.8 53.8 59.7 65.7 Guinea 7.4 48.7 55.2 61.6 Kenya 28.1 63.6 72.1 78.8 Ubera 11.3 49.8 56.5 63.4 Madagascar 6.7 49.2 56.3 63.4 Malaw 4.9 30.7 34.6 38.5 Mali 7.0 29.6 33.4 37.2 Mozambique 4.6 36.4 41 2 45.8 Niger 5.0 24.1 27.2 30.1 Nigeria 9.2 49.5 56.0 62.4 Rwanda 13.5 39.7 44.4 49.1 Senegal 14.2 42.0 46.5 50.9 Sornalia 5.7 33.4 38.3 43.2 Sudan 10.6 47.8 54.2 60.7 lanzania 11 9 47.6 53 1 58.5 Togo 36.9 63 3 67.2 71.0 Uganda 7.2 40 1 45 7 514 Zaire 5.3 41 4 47.8 54 5 Zambia 8.2 417 47 6 53 5 Zimbabwe 45.8 72.8 77.3 81.9 All Sub-Saharan African countries 10.8 45.3 50.5 55.5 India 37.7 64.2 61 4 64.8 China 81.2 85.0 82.6 82.8 a. The estimated contraceptive prevalence rates (CPR) were derived by applying Bongaarts' model to available country-specific information including data on CPR, contraceptive mix, and proportion married, with assumptions on likely changes. (For countries without such informa- tion, proxy data from countries with a similar socio-cultural background were utlized.) The CPR estimates refer to the percentage of women aged 14-49 using contraception (both modern and traditional). For India and China, they refer to marned women aged 15-44. Countnes in the above table are selected on the basis of the size of population (over 5 million) and/or availability of Demographic and Health Surveys information, Phase I (Oct. 1984-Sept 1989). Source: World Bank Estinates: Demographic and Health Surveys of Resource DevelopmenV Macro System, Inc., Columbia, MD. - 153- Table 6. Demand for contraception and Its components among currently married women Demand for contraception Unmet needs Current use Percent of demand satisfied For For For For For For For For Countries Total spacing limiting Total spacing limiting Total spacing lmiting Total spacing limiting sub-Saharn A1rka Botswana 61.6 38.6 23.0 26.9 19.4 7.4 33.0 17.9 15.1 53.6 46.4 65.7 Burundi 33.8 23.5 10.3 25.1 17.7 7.4 8.7 5.8 2.9 25.8 24.7 28.2 Ghana 48.1 34,2 13.9 35.2 26.2 9.0 12.9 8.0 4.9 26.8 23.4 35.3 Kenya 64.9 31.0 33.9 38.0 22.4 15.5 26.9 8.6 18.3 41.5 27.7 54.0 Uberia 39.3 23.4 15.8 32.8 19.8 13.0 6.4 3.6 2.9 16.4 15.4 18.4 Mali 27.6 21.2 6.4 22.9 17.2 5.7 4.7 4.0 0.7 17.0 18.9 10.9 Togo 52.2 36.4 15.8 40.1 28.5 11.7 12.1 8.0 4.1 23.2 22.0 25.9 Uganda 32.1 22.0 10.1 27.2 19.9 7.3 4.9 2.1 2.8 15.2 9.5 27.7 Zimbabwe 64.8 37.6 27.2 21.7 10.1 11.6 43.1 27.5 15.6 66.5 73.1 57.4 North Afrka Egypt 64.8 16.5 48.3 25.2 10.1 15.0 37.8 5.9 31.9 58.4 35.8 66.0 Morocco 60.8 26.4 34.4 22.1 12.5 9.6 35.9 12.7 23.2 59.1 48.1 67.4 Tunisia 71.1 24.9 46 2 19.7 10.6 9.1 49.8 13.5 36.3 70.0 54.2 78.6 Asia Indonesia 64.7 28.5 36.1 16.0 10.1 6.0 47.8 17.8 29.9 73.8 62.5 82.8 SrO Lanka 73.9 21.5 54.4 12.3 7.2 5.1 61.7 13.1 48.6 81.3 60.9 89.3 Thailand 77.1 21.8 55.3 11.1 5.6 5.5 65.5 15.9 49.6 85.0 72.9 89.7 Latin American and the Caribean Bolivia 69.8 17.5 52.3 35.7 9.5 26.2 30.3 6.5 23.8 43.4 37.1 45.5 Brazil 81.1 24.2 56.9 12.8 4.8 8.0 66.2 17.9 48.3 81.6 74.0 84.9 Colombia 80.9 22.1 58.9 13.5 5.1 8.3 64.8 15.4 49.4 80.1 69.7 83.9 Dominican Rep. 71.2 20.8 50.4 19.4 10.0 9.4 49.8 9.6 40.1 69.9 46.2 79.6 Ecuador 70.8 23.8 47.0 24.2 10.8 13.4 44.3 11.6 32.7 62.5 48.7 69.6 Guatemala 53.4 22.1 31.4 29.4 16.4 13.0 23.2 5.1 18.1 43.3 23.1 57.6 Mexico 79.0 25.9 53.1 24.1 11.0 13.1 52.7 13.5 39.2 66.7 52.1 73.8 Peru 77.8 21.7 56.1 27.7 8.1 19.6 45.8 11.2 34.6 58.8 51.6 61.7 El Salvador 73.8 22.3 51.5 26.0 13.9 12.1 47.3 8.1 39.2 64.1 36.3 76.1 TrinidadandTobago 71.1 28.6 42.5 16.1 8.3 7.9 52.7 18.9 33.8 74.2 66.1 79.5 Note: All figures except the last column with selected countries are percent of currently marned women. Total demand indudes method failures, current use, and unmet need. Unmet needs indude non-use among women who would like to regulate their fertility. Percent of demand satisfied is the proportion of current use to total demand. Source: Charles F. Westoff. and Luis H. Ochoa. 1991. Unmet Need and the Demand for Family Planning. DHS Comparative Studies No. 5. Columbia. MD: Institute for Resource Development. - 154- Table 7. Developing countries by strength of family planning progiams, 1989 very weak Stromg Moderate Weak or none I Bangladesh Algeria Afghanistan Argentina 2 Botswana * Chile Angolab Bhutan 3 China Colombia Benin Cambodia 4 El Salvador Costa Rica Bolivia Chad * 5 India Cuba Brazil Gabon* 6 Indonesia Dominican Rep. Burkina Faso Iraq 7 Korea. Rep. Ecuador Burundi * C6te d'lvoire * 8 Mexdco Egypt Cameroon * Kuwait 9 Sri Lanka Ghana * Central African Rep. * ao. PDR 10 Taiwan Guatemala Congo L Uberia* 11 Thailand Guyana Ethiopia' Ubya 12 Tunisia Honduras Guinea * Malawi' 13 Vietnam Iran Guinea-Bissau Myanmar 14 Jamaica Haiti Namibia Is Kenya * Jordan Oman 16 Korea, PDR Lesotho Saudi Arab 17 Lebanon Madagascar Somalia' l8 Malaysia Mali * Sudan' 19 Mauntius Mauritania' U.AE. 20 Morocco Mozambique* 21 Nepal Niger * 22 Pakistan Nigeria* 23 Panama Papua New Guinea 24 Peru Paraguay 25 Philippines Rwanda ' 26 South Africa Senegal* 27 Singapore Sierra Leone' 28 Trin. & Tobago Syria 29 Venezuela Tanzania*. 30 Zambia * Togo * 31 Zimbabwe * Turkey 32 Uganda * 33 Uruguay 34 Yemen 35 Zaire* Average score 53 Maximum possible score 120 Note: Program effort scores were divided into four groups: strong: 80+; moderate: 55-79; weak: 25-54; very weak or none: 0-24. * Sub-Saharan African countres Source: W. Parker Mauldin and John A. Ross. 'Family Planning Programs: Efforts and Results, 1982-19895 (1991). - 155- Table 8. Total fertility rates, desired number of children, infant and child mortality rates, and contraceptive prevalence rates Contraceptive prevalence rates 1, of currents Desired number of married women)s children' Currently DNS Total Mean, Infant Child Current/y using any survey fertN7ity Mean, women mortarity mortality using any modern Country year ratesb all women in union rate, rate"d method' method' Botswana 1988 4.7 4.7 5.4 37 53 33 32 Burundi 1987 6.5 5.3 5.5 7S 152 7 1 Ghana 1988 6.1 5.3 5.5 77 155 13 5 Kenya 1989 6.5 4.4 4.8 60 89 27 18 Ubera 1986 6.4 6.0 6.5 144 220 6 6 Mali 1987 6.9 6.9 6.9 108 250 3 1 Nigeria 1990 5.7 .. .. 87 192 6 4 NigeriandoState 1986/87 5.7 5.7 6.1 56 108 6 4 Senegal 1986 6.2 6.8 7.2 86 191 5 2 Sudan 1989/90 4.6 .. .. 70 123 9 6 Togo 1988 6.1 5.3 5.6 81 158 12 3 Uganda 1988189 7.2 6.5 6.8 101 180 5 3 Zimbabwe 1988/89 5.3 4.9 54A 53 75 43 36 a. Women aged 15-49. b. 8ased on 3 years preceding the survey; women aged 15-44. c. Based on 5 years preceding the survey per thousand. d. Children under S years of age. e. Excluding prolonged sexual abstinence. f. Exduding periodic absbnence, withdrawal, and -other' methods. Source: Demographic and Health Sunrveys, Institute of Resource Development/lacro International., Columbia. Maryland. -156- Table 9. Sub-Sahar Africa: peformance of the agricutr sector Agriultural GDP Agrcures average annual prentage growth (percet share In GDP Cou n 1965.0 198-90 I 1965 1990 SubSahara Africa 2.0 2.1 40 32 Angon .. -0.5 .. 13 Benin .. 3.6 59 37 Botswana 9.7 .4.0 34 3 Burkina Faso .. 3.3 37 32 Burundi 6.6 3.1 .. 56 Cameroon 4.2 1.6 33 27 Capo Verd& .. Central African Rep. 2.1 2.2 46 42 Chad -0.3 2.7 42 38 Comoros .. Congo 3.1 3.6 19 13 Cote d'livoire 3.3 1.0 47 47 Djibouti .. Equatorial Guinea .. ahiopia 1.2 -0.1 58 41 Gabon .. .. 26 9 Gambia, lbe .. 7.1 Ghaua 1.6 1.0 44 48 Guinea .. .. .. 28 Guinea-Biau .. 5.7 -'nya 5.0 3.3 3S 28 Lsotho .. -0.7 65 24 Liberia .. .. 27 Madagausar .. 2.4 25 33 Malawi 4.1 2.0 S0 33 Mai 2.8 2.3 6S 46 Mauriania -2.0 0.7 32 26 Mauritius .. 2.6 16 12 Mozanbiqu .. 1.3 .. 65 Niger -3.4 .. 68 36 Nigeria 1.7 3.3 55 36 Rwanda .. -1.5 7S 38 Sao Tome edPa ncid e .. -1.3 Snegal 1.4 3.1 25 21 Seychellu .. -2.9 Siena Leone 3.9 2.6 34 32 Somalia ..3.3 71 6S Sudan 2.9 2.7 54 Swaziland .. 3.9 Tanzania 1.6 4.1 46 59 Togo 1.9 5.7 45 33 Uganda 1.2 2.5 52 67 Zaite .. 2.5 20 30 Zambia 2.2 3.7 14 17 Zimbabwe .. 2.4 18 3 India 2.5 3.1 44 31 China 2.8 6.1 38 27 Jl 1980W1988 for the ambia, Scychllec, Swzgand, Guinea B_is, Lberia, Sao Tome & Principe, Sudan. , 19S8 for Comors, TIb Gamba, Guinea Bisu, Sao Tome & Principc, Sudan. Cp Verde, Seyhelles. Swaziand Sourc: World Devdopmn Indico 1992, BouODrdt Mach 2, 1992. World BDank Tale 10. Sab an Arka food edly Popuaio faing Poiaugt of Aveage supply as Avpoaml Inbdx of pert cpia food Inaecudty popublaion facing ! capita daily calorie percenlag of mlmum cera inyt fod podcOM Casuy (nu ) food n zt supply (calosic) a equien Ad (11ulds Of tonf ) (197981-100) Averag 198 19801 1965 1986-49 1988 1974 1990 1964-66 i98-90 Sub4dman AfriA a 98 28 2,074 2,027 VI 4.209 7A83S 94 Ana .. 190? 2,742 74 149 272 S1 Bee1 1s 2,019 2,115 92 8 126 94 12 Bo .... 2,025 2251 97 21 87 134 113 Bkimpo 2 32 182 2,002 84 99 145 113 114 BOW& 1 26 2,131 2,320 100 7 17 1O0 92 cameon 1 9 2,011 2,141 92 81 398 89 89 cp Vetdo 2,500 107 _ 163 CanhalAfcicesR1 29 29,055 1,965 87 7 37 94 91 -b 2 54 2,395 1,821 76 37 36 124 S5 CAr .. 2,059 8 _ 114 Cp 0 27 2,263 2;J19 114 34 S4 110 94 Cta e d'Ivia I 6 2,352 2,405 104 m 502 73 101 E&i* 25 U 1, 1,64 I6 6? 11I U6 a . 0 7 I,9S5 2,396 103 24 57 110 34 Ce,mTbT 0 19 2,339 9S 152 Dma 4 36 1,937 2,167 94 177 3? 10 9 cb;m 2,1:7 2,007 67 63 210 106 87 2,437 106 _ 140 _ Keyaw 6 37 2,206 2,016 67 15 1a 119 106 W I_odo _2,049 2j275 100 46 97 220 t6 LIJmia 2 30 2,153 2,344 101 42 70 95 U4 mhdqa_ 1 23 2,447 2,174 95 114 8 105 a Malawi 1 24 2,25 2,057 89 17 115 87 63, 3 35 1,938 2,114 90 281 61 100 97 &6oako0 25 I,9"3 2,465 107 116 S5 143 96 M=dhies 0 9 2,269 2,690 11 160 210 I11 100 Mlnsbile 6 49 1,712 1,604 68 62 416 U32 8S K*i 2 28 1,996 2,321 96 155 86 105 71 t&gesi 14 17 2,185 2,083 aS 389 502 125 106 R _a a 24 1,856 1.817 78 3 21 78 77 So Tadh o I P 2,529 IOS SCC1 1 21 2.372 2,162 91 S41 534 156 102 Sq*.lles .. .. .. 2,117 91 _ Simon . 23 2,014 1,813 79 246 99 89 S _~ 2 50 1,716 1,781 77 42 194 144 94 S . 3 28 .93S 1,98 6 125 166 89 7t 8 amd 2,554 110 68 _ T Ma 7 35 1,831 2,186 94 432 73 87 8 TOp 1 29 2,454 2,110 92 6 121 IIE B Ugada 6 46 2,361 2,034 Be 36 7 110 95 Zaie 12 42 2,1S7 2,079 93 343 336 110 97 Zbir 3 48 2,072 2,028 S7 93 100 98 103 Zi we .. .. 2,075 2,193 92 56 83 96 94 gy A _wper -pday caloriepldat fwl 9819989dM1da by rbemaalah bty dWO forhcoomay. Noti Fod r 'gbddr weto .ghtoad for tiveadhalth ld cWi o i baataL Iwkes fodpr*ducxlmm i o pm capidtacatoiba . 1965: Wodd Deleanmtldictoo 1992,campfor Gue-Bime,l.Gambia. Comnorm,.SmTeatd Punpew,CpVcet, S .eyal,Swed for a hibe em 6 heWoaL. Sub-SobomAfric: C6 wi PdSmajabe e rcwdG 1989. Pet cpit caor uppby 198989-.Af.ican DcvsWoaei , 1992; Wor ?nkUNDPp. 322 -158- Table 11. Sub-Sabaran Afrka: crop yields Cereals Roots and tubers Percentage Percentage cdange change kg/ha compared to kg/ha compared to Country 19846 1964-66 1984-86 1964-66 Sub-Saharan Africa Angola 461 -47 14,088 22 Benin 825 54 8,241 34 Botswana 178 -52 5,385 35 Burkina Faso 690 33 6,568 96 Burundi 1,101 12 7,538 -3 Cameroon 935 18 2,455 10 Cape V.rde 551 -11 3,007 -27 Central African Rep. 513 -31 3,882 10 Chad 531 -13 5,182 14 Comoros 1,116 -15 3,259 -4 Congo 622 -43 6,457 31 Cote d'lvoire 981 23 6,282 70 Djibouti Equatorial Guinea 2,39S -33 Ethiopia 1,081 39 2,827 -7 Gabon 1,481 -6 6,393 0 Gambia, The 1,207 1S 3,000 -32 Ghana 969 7 8,641 5 Guinea 728 -10 7,089 -5 Guinea-Bissa 848 19 6,154 0 Kenya 1,611 31 8,929 21 Lesotho 683 -12 1S,000 3 Liberia 1,302 107 4,014 -3 Madagascar 1,731 1 5,926 -7 Malawi 1,162 24 4,231 -13 Mali 807 3 9,240 12 Mauritania 431 20 1,903 -24 Mauritius 3,200 59 25,939 108 Mozambique 660 -29 5,783 20 Niger 366 -30 8,877 10 Nigeria 1,121 67 11,260 43 Rwanda 1,289 2 7,780 42 Sao Tome and Principe Senegal 709 24 4,232 2 Seychelles Sierra Leone 1,431 8 3,425 -6 Somalia 725 47 10,792 8 Sudan 508 -27 3,408 -1 Swaziland 1,528 225 1,815 -53 Tanzania 1,109 41 11,075 109 Togo 865 83 10,498 -12 Uganda 949 5 6,432 64 Zaie 851 24 7,016 4 Zambia 1,747 106 3,687 13 Zimbabwe 1,460 63 4,907 22 India 1,590 76 14,268 61 China 3,891 122 1S,614 81 Somuce: Wold Bank, World Dcvelop.uitRepaot 1991 -159- Table 12: Sub-Saharan Africa: growth rates of cereal and major export crop yields Average Annual Percentage Growth Country Cereals Major Export Crop 197S40 1980-8S 1986-MR 197S-80 1980-8S 1986-MR Angola (maize,coffec) -6.1 -4.5 -6.9 -21.4 -19.7 -14.3 Benin (maize, cotton) 1.2 3.8 7.0 -2.0 13.6 -0.8 Botswana (maize, n.a.) -28.7 -11.9 -16.2 Burkina Paso (maize, cotton) 7.4 -1.9 7.7 5.5 7.3 -5.3 Burundi (maize, coffee) -1.3 0.6 -0.8 4.2 9.6 -1.3 Cameroon (maize, coffee) -7.3 0.3 4.0 2.8 0.6 -10.3 CAR (maize, coffee) -2.4 16.9 -4.6 -1.0 1.6 4.4 Chad (sorghum, cotton) -0.8 -1.8 0.0 2.0 6.9 -4.8 Congo (maize, coffee) 3.7 -4.5 7.4 18.7 1.0 16.2 Cote d'lvoire (maize, coffee) 6.3 1.8 -1.2 -6.5 -10.8 -8.4 Eq. Guinea (cassava, coffee) -0.4 -1.7 -0.3 0.8 1.4 0.0 Ehiopia (maize, coffee) -2.5 -5.1 1.2 3.7 1.0 3.2 Gabon (maize, coffee) 4.1 -3.0 7.6 1.6 9.9 2.9 The Gambia (maize, cotton) 11.8 3.0 -3.1 *- -5.5 0.6 Ghana (maize, cocoa) -2.9 -0.5 5.9 -3.6 -1.0 11.2 Guinea (maize, coffee) -3.3 2.4 40.1 -0.1 -3.7 -2.2 Guinea-Bissau (maize, groundnuts) -1.2 3.6 -11.4 -3.5 5.1 2.5 Kenya (maize, coffee) -7.2 4.0 -1.3 3.9 -S.9 -0.6 Lesotho (maize, wheat) 11.4 -4.6 6.3 3.8 -12.3 3.5 Liberia (rice, coffee) 0.5 0.0 -1.0 7.5 3.9 -23.2 Madagascar(rice, coffee) -1.4 1.5 3.3 -1.7 -1.1 0.6 Malawi (maize, tea) 3.5 -0.1 4.3 1.6 1.1 1.8 Mali (maize, cotton) 12.9 2.9 5.2 1.2 2.6 -3.1 Mauritania (maize, rice) 11.6 -9.6 -4.2 -2.1 7.0 -1.6 Mauritius (potatoes, sugarcane) 1.7 8.7 0.3 1.1 2.1 -3.7 Mozambique (maize, cotton) 4.7 -2.7 0.0 1.3 -7.4 -11.8 Namibia (maize, wheat) -0.9 0.6 2.9 0.0 4.3 -5.3 Niger (sorghum, groundnuts) 6.3 -10.2 -0.2 28.7 -11.5 9.2 Nigeria (maize, cocoa) -1.3 -5.2 1.5 -4.5 -6.7 1S.9 Rwanda (maize, coffee) 1.4 0.5 0.4 3.3 2.2 7.9 Senegal (maize, cotton) -6.5 9.7 6.4 -3.7 -1.4 7.6 Sierra Leone (rice, coffee) -3.8 2.5 -4.3 13.7 -11.2 -17.8 Somalia (maize, bananas) -1.41 8.5 -6.7 1.0 -0.1 -0.8 Sudan (sorghum, cotton) -2.7 -9.1 -4.8 -4.5 20.0 5.3 Swaziland (maize, cotton) -3.6 -0.8 7.7 6.4 -1.5 0.0 Tanzania (maize, coffee) 1.0 1.1 9.7 -1.8 -0.4 -8.3 Togo (maize, coffee) -0.8 -1.5 20.9 -5.7 -13.1 4.6 Uganda (maize, coffee) 1.1 -3.1 2.7 -8.3 4.9 10.2 Zaire (maize, coffee) 2.1 1.0 2.4 -4.3 -0.2 0.4 Zambia (maize, cotton) 3.3 0.9 3.9 -5.4 11.5 -2.5 Zimbabwe (maize, cotton) -6.0 -1.5 1.1 0.8 3.3 -15.0 MR: Most Recent Year Source: UNDP/World Bank Africa Development Indicators, 1992. -160- Ile 13. Sub-Saharan Afrka: agricultural exports - value and volume Averae Annual Pentage Growth Duntry Value Volume 1975-0 1980-85 196-MR 197S80 198045 1966-MR ib-Sahaa Africa 9.6 - 2.4 - 3.1 - 0.8 - 2.9 - 2.5 ngola - 2.4 -13.0 -36.5 -19.1 -14.2 -12.3 nuin 12.9 17.6 5.4 1.6 5.9 2.8 Atgwana 3.2 0.8 3.S -10.0 10.4 -28.0 srkina Paso 10.9 - 5.1 17.5 - 0.8 - 8.1 0.9 irundi 13.2 9.5 -15.9 -14.4 10.0 10.2 ameroon 17.7 - 5.2 - 1.2 - 1.2 0.0 1.5 ape Verde 43.5 -23.3 18.6 -12.0 - 6.7 -11.5 AR 13.2 -0.9 - 5.0 - 5.6 - 0.3 1.8 bad 14.2 6.1 9.0 3.2 - 6.6 - 4.2 Dmorws 9.7 0.9 - 5.9 - 1.6 8.5 -32.3 Dngo 6.6 4.1 - 3.5 -24.8 34.2 1.6 Dte d'lvoire 19.9 1.5 - 8.6 2.3 3.6 - 4.0 i. Guinea 2.5 8.7 -16.4 - 7.2 7.7 4.4 liopia 13.7 - 2.9 -11.2 -14.5 8.1 11.2 ibon 48.9 -10.0 -19.3 13.5 - 3.0 -11.5 ie Gambia - 9.1 - 1.6 3.1 -11.6 - 3.6 23.2 hana 7.2 -10.6 - 7.4 - 13.4 - 5.1 8.6 ainca 13.3 -10.4 0.2 3.4 - 8.2 - 1.3 zinea-Bissau 7.8 8.1 11.5 0.6 0.2 - 3.8 mya 15.2 1.7 - 4.6 1.8 0.5 - 1.7 :notho 12.2 4.2 16.2 - 3.8 - 5.6 -56.9 beria 21.4 - 2.5 - 5.0 0.9 2.3 - 2.5 adagascar 9.8 - 6.1 -10.4 - 5.5 - 3.4 1.6 alawi 13.5 0.7 10.0 11.3 5.0 -11.7 ali 20.7 - 2.1 9.6 13.0 - O.S - 6.0 aurikania 15.9 - 3.9 1.5 0.1 - 6.7 - 6.0 auritius 4.5 - 4.8 4.9 4.4 - 0.7 1.7 ozambique 7.0 -26.7 - 1.1 - 6.8 -23.9 17.0 unibia 7.9 - 3.8 9.5 - - 2.1 10.0 iger 18.6 - 6.6 - 7.2 5.5 - 3.3 -14.0 igeria 3.2 - 6.1 - 7.4 - 3.5 -17.2 1.8 wanda 10.3 1.6 -11.4 -19.7 6.0 - 0.3 ao Tome & Princpe 24.7 -14.8 -10.4 6.2 -12.5 - 3.1 negal -12.4 6.7 22.0 -18.1 - 3.0 33.2 ychelles 13.4 -14.9 -19.4 - 4.7 - 7.9 -37.2 erra Leone 18.7 - 1.7 -24.2 - 7.3 - 2.4 - 0.4 maia 11.2 -14.3 - 7.8 6.4 - 10.6 - 21.7 dan 4.2 - 4.1 13.4 6.6 - 6.9 24.2 iaziland 14.0 -12.7 6.2 - 7.0 2.3 - 8.0 nlzania 4.2 -10.0 - 3.1 - 4.6 -10.4 7.0 go 18.3 1.3 - 4.8 0.9 0.6 - 8.9 pnda 4.8 5.1 -18.8 -15.3 8.2 2.1 ire 0.3 2.8 -19.3 - 6.5 - 2.7 -12.6 mbia - 2.6 4.9 2.7 -18.7 31.0 -31.6 mbabwe 2.4 - 1.2 8.3 -11.8 3.6 -10.7 MR. Most Recent Year irc: UNDP/Wuot Rank, Afn Developmaet Indicaton, 1992 -161- Sub-Saharan Africa: producer price shares attio of Official Producers Price to Intelational Reference Price Average 1975/79 1980/85 1986-MR Coffee .22 .45 .96 Cotton Lint .45 .41 .54 ia Groundnut - .61 - Faso Cotton .42 .34 .56 i Coffee .51 .60 .60 on Cotton .42 .37 .40 Coffee .29 .18 .34 Cotton .75 .51 .54 is Vanilla .43 .32 .42 Coffee .21 .26 1.09 Ivoire Cocoa Beans .40 .51 .79 nea Cocoa - .79 .90 Coffee .45 .39 .42 Cocoa .57 .49 .63 nbia Groundnut .54 .62 .71 Cocoa .30 .87 .25 Palm Kennels 1.08 .86 .62 Bissau Groundnut .63 .51 .34 Coffee .82 .88 .95 Wheat - 1.40 1.26 Coffee .42 .64 .79 scar Coffee .40 .29 .38 Groundnut .47 .65 1.01 Cotton .34 .39 .50 is Sugar .90 .61 .52 )ique Tea .64 .56 .33 Cotton .35 .45 1.13 Cocoa .53 1.12 .49 Coffee .58 .89 .81 ie & Principe Cocoa .36 .99 - Groundnut .42 .42 .81 eone Cocoa .47 .66 .42 Bananas - .43 .33 Groundnut .55 .40 .96 Id Cotton .46 .29 .27 - Coffee .39 .55 .36 Coffee .24 .31 .54 Coffee .13 .22 .14 Coffee .18 .45 Tobacco .75 .87 .36 ye Tobacco .66 .62 .58 Most Recent Year JNDP, World Bank, African Development Indicators, 1992 (Table 8-2) -162- Table IS. Sub-Saharan Africa: hragation and ferttlizer use Percentage of Fertilizer Irrigated land A/ consumption Country (lOOg/ba) h/ 1985-87 1970-71 1989-90 Sub-Saharan Africa 4 33 89 Angola 0 33 74 Benin 0 36 18 Botswana 0 15 7 Burkina Faso 0 3 58 Burundi 5 5 35 Cameroon 0 34 41 Cape Verde 5 Central African Rep. .. 12 4 Chad 0 7 15 Comoros 0 Congo 1 525 32 Cote D'Ivoire 2 74 113 Djibouti Equatorial Guinea Ethiopia 1 4 70 Gabon .. .. 27 Gambia, The 7 Ghana 0 11 31 Guinea 4 44 11 Guinea-Bissau Kenya 2 238 481 Lesotho .. 10 144 Liberia 1 63 107 Madagascar 28 61 36 Malawi 1 52 227 Mali 9 31 54 Mauritania 6 11 116 Mauritius 16 2095 3302 Mozambique 3 22 8 Niger 1 1 8 Nigeria 3 2 121 Rwanda 0 3 14 Sao Tome and Principe Senegal 3 17 55 Seychelles Sierra Leone 2 17 3 Somalia 12 27 26 Sudan 15 28 39 Swaziland 38 Tanzania 3 31 93 Togo 0 3 83 Ilganda 0 14 1 Zalrc 0 6 10 Zambia 0 73 166 Zimbabwe 7 446 604 India 26 137 687 China 44 410 2619 a/ Irrigated land as percentage of arable and permanent crop land; World Resourmcs Institute. h/ Fertilizer consumption in terms of hundreds of grams of plant nutrients per hectr of arable land; World Bank, World Indicators 1992. Tae 16. SvbSeham Afdcar had n Land use as a pemge of total land Wddemaa ea a Toal Ianra peiccfl of toaw land Country Cropland Pasture Foreat Other (00 ha) are a/ 1965 198I 1987 16S 1960 1987 1965 1980 1987 1965 1980 1987 1987 19SS Sb-Sabaran Africa 6 7 7 27 27 27 33 31 30 34 35 36 2,158,466 28 Angola 3 3 3 23 23 23 44 43 43 30 31 31 124,670 26 Bada 13 16 17 4 4 4 44 36 33 39 44 47 11,062 iS Bouawn 2 2 2 74 78 78 2 2 2 23 IS 18 56,673 63 Burkia Faso 8 10 I1 37 37 37 30 26 25 26 27 27 27,380 3 Butandi 39 51 52 24 35 36 2 2 3 35 11 10 2,565 0 Cameron 12 15 15 19 IS IS 59 55 53 10 12 14 46,540 3 Cap Verde 10 10 10 6 6 6 0 0 0 84 84 84 403 42 CearAlfMieaaRep. 3 3 3 5 5 5 5S SS 58 34 34 34 62,298 39 Cbad 2 3 3 36 36 36 12 11 10 50 51 51 125,920 52 Com 38 41 44 7 7 7 16 16 16 39 37 34 223 Cogo 2 2 2 29 29 29 64 63 62 5 6 7 34,150 16 Cmted'Ilvcu 8 10 11 9 9 9 60 31 20 ' 50 59 31,800 0 Djlbout .. . . 9 9 9 0 0 0 ,. 91 91 2,318 35 Equia ulnea 8 8 8 4 4 4 46 46 46 42 42 42 2,805 0 Ehtiopia I1 13 13 42 41 41 27 26 25 20 21 22 110,I00 22 Gabos 1 2 2 20 18 IS 78 78 78 2 2 2 25,767 Gambia, Mm 13 16 17 9 9 9 30 22 17 48 54 57 1,000 0 Ghaa 12 12 12 16 IS 15 43 3S 36 31 35 37 23,002 0 Guinea 6 6 6 12 12 12 49 43 41 33 38 41 24,586 0 Guinua.Bia 9 10 12 38 38 38 39 38 38 13 13 12 2,812 0 Ken 3 4 4 7 7 7 8 7 6 82 83 83 56,697 25 Leaodm 13 10 I1 73 66 66 .. .. .. 15 24 24 3,035 S0 Liberia 4 4 4 2 2 2 22 272 72 72 9'632 17 0 Mada_ Ar 4 S 5 SS 58 5S 31 27 25 7 9 11 58,154 2 Malawi 21 25 25 20 20 20 54 54 46 5 2 9 9,408 10 Mali 1 2 2 25 25 25 8 7 7 66 67 67 122,019 49 Muatana 0 0 0 38 38 38 15 IS IS 47 47 47 102,522 74 Mauuidta 51 5S 58 4 4 4 34 31 31 12 7 7 185 11 M _c*iqu 3 4 4 56 56 56 22 20 19 i8 20 21 78,409 9 Nwer 2 3 3 8 8 7 3 2 2 87 87 88 126,670 53 Nigeia 32 33 34 21 23 23 23 IS 16 24 26 27 91,077 2 Rwand 26 41 45 34 19 16 23 21 20 17 20 19 2,495 0 SaoTOMe&Principe 35 33 39 1 1 1 .. .. .. 64 61 60 96 Senegl 23 27 27 30 30 30 35 31 31 12 12 12 19,253 Seyell 19 19 22 .. 19 19 19 63 63 59 27 Siena lone 20 25 25 31 31 31 30 30 29 19 15 i5 7,162 0 Somalia I I 1 46 46 46 16 15 14 37 38 38 62,734 24 Sudan 5 S 5 24 24 24 24 21 20 47 51 5l 237.600 40 Swaziband 8 11 10 78 64 68 8 6 6 6 19 16 1,720 0 Tanzana 4 6 6 40 40 40 S1 49 48 5 6 7 88,604 10 Togo 20 26 26 4 4 4 45 31 25 31 39 45 5,439 0 Ugana 24 28 34 25 25 25 32 30 29 19 16 13 19,955 4 Za2r 3 3 3 4 4 4 80 78 77 13 15 16 226,760 6 Zambia 7 7 7 47 47 47 42 40 39 4 6 6 74,on 24 Zimbsbwe S 7 7 13 13 13 S2 52 52 30 19 29 38,667 1 India 55 .. 57 S 4 20 .. 22 20 .. 17 297,319 20 Cbina I .. 11 31 31 12 14 46 44 932,641 20 WV Refers only to mar larger than 4,000 square kilomes. Wilderness area is defined as land left in its natural stade witbout any transformation by human action. Tes areas may panJy indude forets, paste and other lands as classified by FAO Source: FAO; and the World Resourc Institute and International Institute for Environment and Devdopment (in collaboration with UN Environmnent Progamme). World Resources 1988-89, 1988. -164- Table 17. Sub-Saharan Africa: per capita arable land Per capita arable land area (hectares) Country 196S 1980 1987 1990 2000 aI Sub-Saharan Africa 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.29 0.22 Angola 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.36 0.28 Benin 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.40 0.30 Botswana 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.06 0.70 Burkina Faso 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.40 0.25 Burundi 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.24 0.18 Cameroon 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.59 0.43 Cape Verde 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.11 0.08 Central African Rep. 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.66 0.48 Chad 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.56 0.51 Comoros 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.18 0.15 Congo 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.07 0.22 Cote d'Ivoire 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.31 0.20 Djibouti .. .. Equatorial Guinea 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.65 0.51 Ethiopia 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.28 0.20 Gabon 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.39 0.35 Gambia, The 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.21 0.15 Ghana 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.18 0.14 Guinea 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.13 0.20 Guinea-Bissau 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.35 0.28 Kenya 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.10 0.07 Lesotho 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.18 0.15 Liberia 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.14 0.12 Mad&gascar 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.26 0.20 Malawi 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.28 0.19 Mali 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.23 0.21 Mauritania 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.10 0.00 Mauritius 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10 0.09 Mozambique 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.20 0.15 Niger 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.47 0.36 Nigeria 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.29 0.19 Rwanda 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.16 0.11 Sao Tome and Principe 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.23 Senegal 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.71 0.51 Seychelles 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10 0.08 Sierra Leone 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.43 0.33 Somalia 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.14 0.07 Sudan 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.50 0.36 Swaziland 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.21 0.16 Tanzania 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.19 0.14 Togo 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.41 0.28 Uganda 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.36 0.28 Zaire 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.22 0.14 Zambia 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.62 0.45 Zimbabwe 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.29 0.21 India 0.3 .. 0.2 .. 0.16 China 0.6 .. 0.4 .. 0.32 A/ 1987 arable land areas have been divided by the projected population of the year 2000. Source: PAO; World Bank, WDR 1991. 1990: World Resources Institute -165- Table 18. Sub-Saharan Africa: forest area and deforestation Deforestation, 1980s Country Forest and Thousand Reforestacion, Woodland 1980 Percent per hectars per 1980s (thousand (thousand year year hectarem pec hectares) yoar) Sub-Saharan Africa 678,900 0.6 3,764 229 Angola 53,600 0.2 94 4 Benin 3,867 1.7 67 0 Botswa-^ 32,560 0.1 20 Burkina aso 4,735 1.7 80 3 Burundi 41 2.7 1 3 Cameroon 22,300 0.8 190 2 Cape Verde .. .. .. 0 Central African Rep. 35,890 0.2 55 Chad 13.500 0.6 80 0 Comoros 16 3.1 1 0 Congo .. 0.1 22 0 Cote d'lvoire 9,834 5.2 510 8 Djibouti 106 Equatorial Guinea 1,295 0.2 3 Ethiopia 27,150 0.3 88 13 Cabon 20,575 0.1 15 1 Gaml,ia, The 215 2.4 5 0 Ghana 8,693 0.8 72 3 Cuinea 10,E50 0.8 86 0 Guinea-Bissau 2,105 2.7 57 0 Kenya 2,360 1.7 39 13 Lesotho .. .. .. 0 Liberia 2,040 2.3 46 3 Madagascar 13,200 1.2 156 15 Malawi 4,271 3.5 150 1 Mali 7,250 0.5 36 1 Mauritania 554 2.4 13 0 Mauritius 3 3.3 0 0 Mozambiq - 15,435 0.8 120 67 5 Niger 2,550 2.6 400 5 3 Nige-ia 14,750 2.7 .. 32 Rwanda 230 2.3 S0 4 Sao Tome and Principe .. Senegal 11,045 0.5 6 4 Seychelles .. .. 14 Sierra Leone 2,055 0.3 504 0 Somalia 9,050 0.1 0 2 Sudan 47,650 1.1 130 12 17 Swaziland 74 .. 50 7 Tanzania 42,040 0.3 370 70 11 Togo 1,684 0.7 80 1 Uganda 6,015 0.8 2 Zaire 177,590 0.2 1 Zambia 29,510 0.2 3 Zimbabwe 19,820 0.4 6 Source: World Rmouge Inhatife; D.a daa Itm Af.i hdkicat Projet; March 1991. Table 13 defodbam nd reforoa. -166- Table 19. Sub-Saharan Africa: fuelwood supply and demand Fuelwood supply demand balance (million cubic meters) Country 1980 2000 Sub-Saharan Afrka Angola Benin 17.6 8.9 Botswana 25.6 23.9 Burkina Faso -2.6 -11.2 Burundi -3.2 -7.0 Cameroon 72.6 59.6 Cape Verde Central African Rep. 111.5 105.6 Chad -1.2 -9.8 Comoros Congo 46.4 43.2 Cot6. d'Ivoire 43.9 14.4 Djibouti Equatorial *iinea 4.6 4.0 Ethiopia 4.4 -30.8 Gabon 42.8 40.9 Gambia, The -0.6 -1.5 Ghana 29.3 13.8 Guinea 38.6 29.6 Guinea-Bissau 4.8 1.1 Kenya -4.5 -58.4 Lesotho Liberia 11.1 -4.4 Madagascar 5.2 4.4 Malawi -3.1 -13.1 Mali 0.4 -5.0 Mauritania 3.8 3.8 Mauritius Mozambique 16.8 0.3 Niger -0.9 -5.5 Nigeria 57.5 -89.6 Rwanda -5.5 -16.0 Sao Tome and Principe Senegal 0.3 -4.4 Seychelles Sierra Leone 5.0 -1.5 Somalia 11.1 6.5 Sudan 6.1 -39.5 Swaziland -0.5 -1.3 Tanzania -5.1 -74.0 Togo 10.3 13.1 Uganda -18.7 -57.3 Zaire 388.2 327.9 Zambia 15.2 5.4 Zimbabwe 2.8 -12.2 «I Fuelwood supply-demand balance defined as increase in stock of fudwood in the year minus total utilization of fudiwood in that year. Source :FAO -167- Fable 20. Sub-Saharan Africa: wildiife habitat oss In afrotropical nation, 1986 Original wildlife Amount habitat remaining 1000 (square Loss (square kilometers) 1000 (ercent) Country kilometenr Angola 1,246.7 760.9 39 Benin 115.8 46.3 60 Botswana 585.4 257.6 56 Burkina Faso 273.8 54.8 80 Burundi 25.7 3.6 86 Camneroon 469.4 192.4 59 Central African Rep. 623.0 274.1 56 Chad 720.8 173.0 76 Congo 342.0 174.4 49 Cote d'lvore 318.0 66.8 79 Djibouti 21.8 11.1 49 Equatorial Guinea 26.0 12.8 51 Ethiopia 1,101.8 10.3 70 Gabon 267.0 173.6 35 Gambia, The 11.3 1.2 89 Ghana 230.0 46.0 80 Guinea 245.9 73.8 70 Guinea-Bissau 36.1 8.0 78 Kenya 569.5 296.1 48 Lesotho 30.4 9.8 68 Liberia 111.4 14.4 87 Madagascar 595.2 148.9 75 Malawi 94.1 40.4 57 Mali 754.1 158.3 79 Mauritania 388.6 73.9 81 Mozambique 783.2 36.8 57 Niger S66.6 127.9 77 Nigeria 919.8 230.0 7S Rwanda 2S.1 3.2 87 Senegal 196.7 35.3 82 Sierra Leone 71.7 10.8 85 Somalia 637.7 376.2 41 Sudan 1,703.0 511.0 70 Swaziland 17.4 7.7 56 Tanzania 886.2 S55.1 43 Togo 56.0 19.0 66 Uganda 193.7 42.7 78 Zaire 2,335.9 1,051.1 55 Zambia 752.6 534.3 29 Zimbabwe 390.2 171.7 56 Total 18,737.4 6,765.3 64 Namibia 823.2 444.5 46 South Africa 1,236.5 531.7 57 iote: Habitat is a place or type of site where a plant or animal naturally or nor=ialy lives and grows. The Afrotropieal ealm is defined as all of the continent south of the Sahar Desert, including the iuland of Madagasr. Therefore, data for lauritania, Mali, Niger, Chad, and Sudan cover only parts of these countries. Comoros, Seychelles. Sao Tome aqd 'rincipe, Mauritius, Rodrigues, Reunion, and the eceme southeatern corner of Egypt are not included. ource: World Resource Insttute and International Institute for Environment and Development (n collaboration with UN !nvironment Programme), World Resource 1988-8~), 1988. e~~~~ a a a a a*aaaaa aaaaaaaaa a a aa a a a a a an a a a a a a 22 I aa~~~m~asao I It Isl | m a a das a a 1 ' ' a a a a a a a a a a§ a a a X a a * a a a a a a a a a a a Ii m i00 sWt -169- Table 22. Soil ersioon in selced counies of Sub-Sabama Africa, 1970486 Amount of Amount of eosion Afced ae as roion (melric tons Location perage of (metric tons per heaxe Year of (and extent) National ar per year) peryear) tstmae Burkina Fmo Central pateau NA NA 5-35 1970s Ethiopia a) Total Cropland (12 million ha) 10 500 million 42 1966 b) Cnta highland pbtauu (47 million ha) 43 1.6 million 0.03 1970r Kenya Njemps Flats NA NA 138 mid-1980s Tugan Plateau NA NA 72 mid-1980r Lesotho Grazing and coplands (2.7 million ha) 88 18.5 million 7 NA Madagsa a) Mostly cropland (45.9 million ha) 79 NA 25.250 1970s b) High central plat NA 12.40 million 25-250 1980s Niger Small waenhed (11,700 ha) 0.01 468,000 40 NA Nigeria a) Imo State (900,000 ha) 1 13 million 14.4 1974 b)Jos Plateau NA 6million NA 1975 c) Anemom NA 10-15 million NA 1975 Zimbabwe Area wh moderate to severe osion 0.8 15 million 50 1979 (304,000 ha) NA indicates n avaiable. Sowce: Wodd Resources Instu and lnzstonal Intitut for the Environment and Consevation. -170-. Table 23. EIxt of sol degradation In major regions of the world, early IPSOs Total Productive dryland "ac poductive drylands Rangnds Rainfed croplands kirgated lands Ana Ara Ar Ar (million Peent (million Percent (million Percent (million Pemvent hecames) degraded hectaes) degraded hectares degraded hectre) dzadod Totl 3,287 87 2,586 62 570 60 131 30 Sudano%SalianAfuica 473 88 380 90 90 80 3 30 SouthernAhica 304 80 250 80 52 80 2 30 Meditemnane Africa 101 83 80 8S 20 75 1 40 Western Asia 142 82 116 85 18 85 8 40 Southern Asia 359 70 150 85 150 70 59 35 USSR in Asia 298 5S 250 60 40 30 8 25 Cina and Mongolia 31S 69 300 70 5 60 10 30 Austalia 491 23 450 22 39 30 2 19 Meditaesn uEurop 76 39 30 30 40 32 6 25 South Anieric nd Mexioo 293 71 250 72 31 77 12 33 NorthAmerica 40S 40 300 42 8S 39 20 20 Sam UsMf Nigiam Zwvfrsmmultegsi Us. orwai NWg h duuaUlpalaa whichh barn8oo mbtwog In wilh dw. t=r dcgudatlaibl is ma. cuma - 171- Table 24. Results of finandal and economic analyses of various land resource management technologies (Vigenia land resources management study) Annual Financial analysis results Economic analysis results Conser- yield declineb vat,on Weld Base case' Degraded cased Base case' Degraded cased benefits as iwemenr Without With % of total Problm) benefit project project IRR IRR IRa IRa benefit, Zone/technoogw addressed ercent (oercent) (percent) (oercent B cratio (percent) B Cratio ercent) 8:Cratio (percent) B8Cratio (ercent) Very humid zone: Vetiver grass contour hedges Sheet erosion; incipient guilying 5 3 1 20.5 1.20 50 0 2 53 15 7 1 37 40 4 2 91 70 Fanya Juu contour bunds Sheet erosion; icpientguling S 3 1 8.5 0.77 30.6 1 68 23 1 1 91 48 2 4.08 59 Stone-faced terraing Sheet erosion: mcepntguying 5 3 1 *11.1 037 7.5 076 115 116 344 242 94 Wave Bedding Gullymg - - - 11.4 0.73 12.8 0.83 132 1.82 13.6 187 90 Improvedacioasyster Dediningfertility 0 - - - 1.45 - 1.12 - 1.81 - 1.40 92 Alleycropping Dediningfertility 20 5 2 177 1.06 147 1.00 9.S 105 42 094 45 Sub-humid zone: Animaltraction Dediningfertility 5 2 1 166 106 242 139 142 134 220 179 17 Fodder banks Decining fertility 40 2 - 25 3 1.33 23.7 127 10 6 1.07 5 8 0.97 11 5razingreserveimprovement Overgraing 33 2 - 7.9 0.80 235 125 -02 068 8.3 104 100 Plateau zone: Community woodlots Woodland degradation - - - 14 5 0.95 - - 80 106 8 5 1 11 76 Dry sub-humid zone: Tree*sheterbelts Winderoson 20 2 I ItS 0.75 18.7 131 76 101 116 139 75 Vetiverhedgesh terbeIts Winderosion 10 2 1 298 132 716 2 14 II O I O 380 192 77 Farm forestry Wind erosion; dedini fertieity; woodarnd degradation 10 2 1 150 100 166 012 125 167 14.2 196 5 Private vwoodlots Woodland degredation - - 10 5 0 65 - - 4 s 0 76 4 9 0 79 76 Indigenous rock bunds Sheet erosion; inLnpientgullying 25 2 1 242 1 17 666 184 648 209 1652 304 57 - 172- a. Yield increment benefits were based on the following Vetivergrasscontour hedges Wiggins(1981) in an analysis of similar slopes and rainfall conditions in El Salvador Fanya Juu contourbunds allowed fora 1% yield increment to account for retention of fertilizer and seeds once Stone-faced terracing project is in place; a somewhat higher figure was judged appropnate for southeastern Nigeria. Improved acioa system No yield increment is assumed as the improved system is meant to produce an extra crop one year in four Alley copping IITA studies over the years have demonstrated yield improvements for maize in excess of 40% under alley cropping (Ngambeki and Wilson, 1984; Ngambeki. 1985). For cassava under southeastern Nigenan conditions, Kang et al ( 989) report yields of I S to 20 t/ha on alley farmed areas compared to 14 t/ha on traditional plots with no fertilizer Alley farm yields vary according to whether prunings are or are not applied vith or without fertilizer, and depending on the tree species planted in the hedgerows Because of the early stage of reserach. a conservative 20% yield gain was assumed Animal traction There Is considerable debate conceming yied gains under animal traction Pingali et al. (1987) review a large number of studies and conclude the yield impact is minimal. especially when cbserving an individual farmer convering to animal traction from the hoe without an improvement in the quality of tillage As a result, only a minimal yied improvement of 5% was assumed here Fodder bank ILCA researchers have demonstrated large yteld gains for maize planted in rotation with stylo-based fodder banks. Mohamed Saleem et al (1 98S) repon a doubling of yields on fodder banks compared to yields on lands fallowed for many years Tarawali et al. (1987) report an 85% increase for test plots in the sub-humid zone A conservative figure of 40% was assumed here Grazing reserve 0incan (1988) assumes that a program of grazing reserve improvements could raise carrying capacity from one TLU per 8 ha to one per 6 ha. for an increase of 33%; this assumption is adopted here Treshelterbelt Yield increments are taken from Anderson (I 987). who extensively reviews the Vetiver hedge shelterbelt literature on shelterbelt effects. Since vetiver hedges have not been studied greatly, a Farm forestry conservative figure of 10% was adopted Indigenous rock bunds OXFAM's project in Burkina Faso demons, rated yield gains from 9% to 40%. depending on rainfall conditions (Younger and Bonkoungou, 1989) For Nigena. a figure of 25% was assumed, but rainfall conditions will be important in determining ultimate yield benefits b Annual yield decline figures were denved as folows Vetiver grass contour hedges Using soil loss-yield relationships developed by Lal (1 987) for a I S% slope in southern Fanya Juu contour bunds Nigeria. yield loss per year vould be 3 5% (assuming a beta value of 0.04 to account Stone-faced terracing for cassava being relatvely tolerant of soil loss), on a 5% slope (to imitate project conditions), yield loss per year would be approximately 1% Alley cropping Higging and Antoine (in preparation) report maize and yam yield reductions of about 50% over I S years and 6 years, respectively, in southern Nigera on continuously cropped fields Cassava's yield decline is slower than yam, wth 5% selected as an arbitrary figure Animal traction Based on Higging and Antoine (maize yield decline), but since some fallowing is assumed to exist, the yield decline without the improvement is taken as somewhat lower. Manunng and better ndging is assumed to reduce annual yield decline by one half under animal traction, while yield decline is assumed to be fully arrested vith fodder banks. Grazing reserve An arbitrary decline of 2% per year under existing conditions is assumed. Tree shelterbelt Annual decline without im.provement is taken from Anderson (1987), but an Vetiver hedge shelterbel allowance of some continued decline (1% per year) is made here, although not Farm forestry by Anderson Indigenous rock bunds Figures used are arbitrary and are meant to take account of declining fertility due to shortened fallows and to wind erosion. as well as sheet erosion effects c. Assumes avewage yields cropping intensity and yield declines as indicated. d. 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The World Bank 1818 H Street, N.W. (202) 477-1234 INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT Washington, D.C. 20433 Cable Address: INTBAFRAD INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION U.S.A. Cable Address: INDEVAS May 13, 1992 Dear Colleague: This Discussion Paper will benefit from the review and comments of attendees at the Rio de Janeiro meeting who are invited to append comments and suggestions on the lower part of this letter. If that space is insufficient, extra sheets can be used. All comments should be faxed (202477-2977) or mailed (1818 H Street, N.W., Washington DC 20433) to us to be received by June 30, 1992. Debate and discussion at the meeting will, doubtless, stimulate a range of views and a number of key considerations which will enhance the final version of the text. The Authors c I IBRD 2324 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Estimated Annual Population Growth (1 986-2000) and Per Capita Potential Arable Land 4in hectares) in 2010 GUINEGAL G2UNNGE S *RR LEON D . 0IRE (3 Oca SATM& E' I,,iIr G3.2 N C WFDt' 3.) c PERCENTAGE OF \ t (3'0) BURUNDI WtiOo (2.7) POPULATION GROWTH 29 -34 ETHIOPIA(30) PERCAPITAPOTE NTIAL ) ANGOLA S 2I > (3.2 ho) | been3 p pe T |ALesstlan tGO.5E. The we n t de SAO 'o 'T ~~~~~~~~~~~~~copd a irl.ontepnto h WrdBck r).ay egnn OceMEotWANA a o o o J msntata PRINCIPE |2 0.5 -0.9NAMI3.7) 1991 ZAI,REOTWN f § | 1 - 1.9 t [ ~~~~~~~~~~ ~ ~~~~~~(3.1)/ { (2.7)~ ~ ~ ~ ESTIMAND ANNALTANAI i 2*9896 ESTHO70007 )s (in hectares) (3.4)~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~nte glstu f " pe°th,oh°nyefhonkGtup n dre Less than 0.5~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~s oou3e.0) m MAUPJTIU~~~~~~~Sapsbr19