35666 Beyond Transition -- 2005 . · 6 (2005) http://www.worldbank.org/transitionnewsletter http://www.cefir.ru/index.php?id=38 : , , 3 4 " ", ? 6 , , . 8 1980 2005 .: , 10 : 12 , , 14 , 15 : , 18 , , 20 : 21 23 (. ), 26 , , , , 2 · BeyondTransition -- , . , -- , , . , , . , , , , , . , , . , . , . , . , , 60 . BT , . , , , , . , , , . . . . , . , , . . , . ., , . -- , , . , BT, , , . , , , . , . , , , , . , , -- , . · 3 : , , , ? ; , ( , , ) , . , , . , , , . , . ( ) . , , , , , . -- . , , , , . ? , : . : , , . , , " ", , , , . , . , . , : . . , , . . : , : , ; , , . , ; , , . ; , : , , . , , . . : 16 -- , , 95% , 1960 -- 2000 . . , . . 1970 . , (Timothy Besley), (Robin Burgess) (David Donaldson) 2005 . . -- , -- ; , -- . , . 4 · Beyond Transition -- : " , , " -- . , . . " : " ("Fighting Poverty in the US and Europe: a World of Difference") , Oxford University Press 2004 . BT , . , , . ? , , , , , , , ? , , " , " . , , , . , , , . , , . , , , . , . , , , . , . , , , . , ? . , : . ? ? , , , ( , , c , , . . ), , , , , . , "" "". . , , , , . , : , . , : , , , -- . . . , , , , , , , , . , . , 10--20 , · 5 , , , , , . . , , , , , , , . . , -- , , ; -- . . , , -- , . , . , 1960 , 1970 1980 ., , , ? . , , , . , -- . , , . . , [. . 6], , , , , , . , . , , , , . , . , . , , , , , ? , , , , . , , , , , 25% , . , , , . , , , . , . , . ? , -- , , , , . , , -- , , . . , , . , , , % $1 , % $2 , % 1998 4,6 2001 16,6 46,7 1997 11,1 2001 2,7 15,7 1997 17,3 2002 <2 <2 1999--2000 28,6 1999--2000 35,3 80,6 1996 34,6 2003 <2 24,9 1994 30,9 2002 <2 7,5 1995 31,7 1999 2,9 45,7 2000 27,5 2000 17,3 71,7 : , 2005 . 6 · BeyondTransition -- " ", ? , . . : ? 1997 . 2002 . ? 2,5 -- 5,8 . . , 18 000 , , , 20 -- 40 , . . , · . , . , , . 1945 1990 . . , . , . , 1975 ., 3 -- 11 1990 . , 1945 ., , , 1945 ., 21--49 . . , , 45 . , . (German Socio Economic · . Panel): , , 1984 . (11 400 ), , 1997 . 2002 ., (7 000 ) 1997 2002 . ? , 1997 ., : , , , 2002 ., , . , -- . , · : ? : / , , . . , 1, : , , . , , , , , , . , . : , , c 20 -- 40 . , , , , , " " , , . 1997 . 14 -- 16 . · 7 · . , , , : 7% . : . · , , , , , , ; , , , · , . . , , , , " " -- : , , . , , , , . , 34 , , , -- 45 . , , 1997 . 2002 . . , . , , , 1990 ., , 1997 . 2002 . , . , . , , , 2002 . -- , , -- . 25% , , . . , , , , , , . , , , . " ". ? (Alberto Alesina)-- , . (Nicola , Fuchs Schuendeln)-- , , -- . " ". , (. . ) -- . (Harvard Institute of Economic Research Discussion 10 Paper). . , , , -- . . , . , . , , , , , . , , , , . , , , , : , , , , . , (20 -- 40 ), 8 · BeyondTransition -- , , 1990 . 1999 . 2000 . (1%). , , 1990 . . 2002 . . , , 0,28, . . , -- . -- , . , , . . 1994-- . 1998 ., , (5%) , , ( 1%), . 4 .1998--2002. , ( , 1%) -- 3 . . ? , , , , , , . , , , (HBS), . . . 2000 . 1990 ., , 2001 . . . " " . : , ; . ; ( 1998 ., ); 3 , , . . . , ( , ). 1994 . 2002 . , ( 1980 .), , 7%, . 2002 . 0,38 1994 . 0,41 2002 ., 3,3 . (20% ) . (13%). , ? , . , , 1990 . 1998 . ( . 5% ) ( , . ). 1999 . : , 1994--2002 . 32,8%, , 4% . · 9 , , 1994 2002 . , (% ) (, .) 7% (, .) 1990 . (%/) 16.0 6.6 6% 6.4 5% . 15.5 . 6.2 4% 3% 6.0 , , , 2% 15.0 5.8 1% 5.6 0% 14.5 5.4 ( 0,308 0,316). 1% 5.2 , 2% 14.0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 5.0 : , 1998 ., , 20% 2002 . , , . , 20 , · , . . ( , , . ) , . , . (56%) . . , , , . . 1998 . 2002 .; · 2002 . , , 1998 . . 15 . , . , . · , , . , . , . , , · -- , , , , , . . . , , , 2000 ., . . . . · , (Pierella Paci) -- . ; (Marcin J. Sasin) -- (Jos Verbeek) -- . , . : http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=643241 10 · BeyondTransition -- 1980 -- 2005 .: , , , , "" , . , . 1980 . : , , . , , . ? 1996 . 2004 . , , , 61% 52% ( "Latinbarometro 2004, Una , , decada de mediciones"). , , . , . , , . , , . . 1980 . ? . 1980 ., (2005 .) " ", , . , , -- ( 1980 . 18 . , ). 1990 . . , ( 60 ) 0,2% . , , , . " 1990 . ( , ). , " , . , , , , , , , . , , , , . , . . (2005 .) , , 5% , 1980 . 1,3% , 3,3% 1990 ., , , 1,5% 2000--2003 . 1980 . 1,6 . , , , . 2,3 . . (1999), , (CEPAL), 2004 . 42,9% , , , , 1980 . , (40,5%). , . , . 1970 1990 . , 0,48 0,52 . , , . " -- , " , . . , , 41,4% · 11 1990 . 29,9% 2001 ., -- 33,3% 1990 . (, ) 18,8% 2003 . ( ., 2003 .). , -- . . , (4,1% 1990 . 2,1% 2000--2003.). 30% . -- (2001) , 85% , . 70% , . , , , , -- . -- . , 25 -- , . -- , ( 70%). , . ( 54% 1996 . 57% , 2004 .), ( 50% 41,5% , ). , , . , , . , . , , , : . , , , (70%), , , . (65%). , -- . -- , . (2005 .) , -- , . 0,45, . , "" , , , , 1990 . " " . , . : . . , (Alvaro Garcia) -- , / , . . BT. ( 1 000 ( 1 000 , ) , ) 74,98 30 70,69 10 68,17 13 67,02 26 68,72 33 74,6 6 76,44 8 70,09 18 70,8 30 65,7 16 73,99 6 73,39 7 75,17 3,9 76,09 4 71,18 8 68,64 33 73,47 41 68,29 15 61,32 63 66,68 57 : , 2005 . 12· BeyondTransition -- : 34 116 . , , , , , -- . . , , . . , , , , -- , . , -- , /, . , . , , , , , , , , , . 3 537 , . , 910 (26%) , , . : , 15% 3 534 19% 1 202 . . 1 . . , . , , , , . . , , . . , . , , 2000 . , " , " (JOBS). 567 . , , , , . , , . $3.788.233. , 10 , ( 12,36%). () -- 5 , . . 7,36%. 2004 . 111 . : , / 1. () , / , , ( , , , . 2004 . , , , , , , ( , ). 8 273 , , 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% , 43%, / 14,5% . · 13 2. 3. ( ) ( ) 100% 90% 80% 7000 70% 6000 60% 50% 5000 40% 4000 30% 3000 20% 2000 10% 1000 0% 0% / / $740 636 . , ( 30 ) 2,78%, 1%. , , , , 2,12% . , (2,23 % ), . 20,28% -- (16,05% ). 2 , , . . 3, , , , , , , . , . , , . . , , . , . "Your Spis", ? , , , " ", , " ". ( 2004 . 13) . $50 000. . , $800 10% , -- . , 2004 . . 10 . . . , , , -- /, -- , , . . , , 706,5 , 2729,3 , / -- 2629,2 . , . , . -- , . , , , . , , . . , 2, , . , , , , -- . , . . 14· BeyondTransition -- , , (, , . .), , ? , , , , . , , . , , , . . , , -- . , , , , , , -- , , (hukou), . . , · 19% , 90 . , . , , . . , , , . , , 10,7 . , , , , , , 7,9 . . . , · . , . , , . , . , , , . , . . , , " ", . -- , , . , (CGE), , . . , · 15 . 26,8 . . , · , , , 2,1% 1,8%, . , , . , , . . · , , 2,59 2,27 2007 . , . , . . + = . , , , : · , . , . . . , · 1,3 . . . · 0,5% 0,6%. (Thomas Hertel) -- · , , . (Fan Zhai) -- . · , . : , http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=625332 . , 2003 . 62,7% ( -- 5% 9%, . ). "" ? , , , ? (), 2003 . , , . -- , . , , 10 , , : 56% 1 (38,5%). (. . 56% 20% .53,6%; ) 60% 2 , , -- 27,6%. 16 · BeyondTransition -- -- 84,30%, (45,4%), 3% . , . , , , (47,9% 14,9%, ) : 25% (39,5% (26,7%), ) -- . , 36,8% , -- 51,8%. 4% , , , (. : 3,0% 4,7%. ), . , " ( (1 056 . 2002 .)", 67,1%) (27,8%). , , , , 25%. , , . " ", , , , 19 768 . , ( $700), "" -- , . 5 356 . ( $190). , " ". -- 2 137 . ( $76) -- 1637 . ( $58). . . : -- 18% ( -- 26,1% (17,4% ) 5%), -- 41,4% ( -- 22,0% (20,1% ). -- 11%). , 12% , , , , -- (13,6 9,8% ). . . , ( 85% 38,5%), 1. () , , , . , % , % , % ( , ( , ( , . % % % ) ) ) "", , 47,2 (13,6) 44,6 (24,3) 49,3 (31,7) , , , 41,3% 63,9 (32,8) 63,3 (29,8) 64,6 (35,0) ; -- 58,7%. , " , 14,3 (18,5) 10,8 (17,3) 17,0 (19,1) ". ( , ) , . , " " , , , . , , . 1,3 -- 1,8 " " , , , . , , , 1,6 , . 1,6 . · 17 2. . . . 1 * 2,07 1,18 3,64 ? 1,37 0,72 2,50 2,44 1,41 4,20 0,44 0,34 0,63 1,47 1,21 2,00 1,29 0,77 2,43 2,70 1,61 5,04 , " ". 0,58 0,30 0,99 4,37 2,59 6,65 , 0,22 0,11 0,38 2,80 1,52 4,12 . , * , . , , . . . : · , , , , . 1,9, -- 3,5 . · , , , ? . , , -- , -- , . . · , , , , . . , , 2003 .: , · , , , , -- , . . · , , , . · , , . . , . " ". , 18· BeyondTransition -- , , , , -- 1--2%. , . , "" , , . , . , , , , , . . , . , , , -- " . , , ", -- " " " , " . .. , .. , .. . . : , , , , . , . , , , , . . , 45 . , -- 2003 , . 46 . , , , . , , , -- . . -- , -- . , , , , , . . 46 , . , . 2005 ., , , () , , , , . , -- 48,5% 2003 . -- , . , , . . , , . , . , ( ) 67% 18% . 1 , , . · 19 . 1. . 100% 90% : 80% 70% 60% . 50% ( 40% ). 30% 20% , 10% , 0% , , . , , 0,25 (4) . 0,25 0,5 (3) . 0,5 0,75 (2) 0.75 1 (1) , (0) , . , , , , , , , , , , , , . . , : . , ( ), 1. . . , , , , , , , . , . , , 46 , : 0,264 0,802 . . , . (22 46). . . 2. , . , . . , , . : , . 3. 44 . . -- . 4,062 0,659 , , . , . , . . , . . · , , , , , 20· BeyondTransition -- . , , , . , . · , . , · , , . , . -- , -- , . () , . , 5,3% -- 70% . (). , , 1,3% , , -- 0,7% , . , . (GATS). , , 55 000 , . . , , . -- , , 7,3% ( 3,4% ). , , , 2% 25%. . , . , , . , , 7% . , , , . , , (Thomas Rutherford) -- . , . , (David Tarr) -- , , , , . , (Oleksandr Shepotylo) -- , . , . : http://ssrn.com/abstract=647643 (World Bank Policy , Research Working Paper 3473). · 21 : 1990 . , , () , . . , , , : , (), , , , . . , 2003 . . -- . . , (, ) , . : , ? . . 2004 . 2005 . . 2006 2007 ., . . , , , . 2005 -- 2006 . , . . , , , (. 1). . , : 2005 . " " . " ". 1 , " c ", , 2004 ., . , 1. (). , , ( ) , , . , . , . : "" , . . , . , : 2004 22· BeyondTransition -- . -- : . , , . , , ( . , ) , , . , , , , " 2004 ." " 2005 .", , , . , , 1 000 2 , . 1 10. -- , , . , , , 2, , , , . . . . -- , , " , . 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