ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: WOMEN’S DECISION MAKING & SELECTED OTHER IMPACTS BRIEF Page 1 · ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: WOMEN’S DECISION MAKING AND SELECTED OTHER IMPACTS BRIEF June 2017 ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: WOMEN’S DECISION MAKING AND SELECTED OTHER IMPACTS BRIEF OVERVIEW Each day, more than 41,000 girls worldwide are married while still children, often before they may be physically and emotionally ready to become wives and mothers. Child marriage, defined as marriage or a union taking place before the age of 18, endangers the life trajectories of these girls in numerous ways. Child brides are at greater risk of experiencing a range of poor health outcomes, having children at younger ages, having more children over their lifetime, dropping out of school, earning less over their lifetimes and living in poverty than their peers who marry at later ages. Child brides may also be more likely to experience intimate partner violence, have restricted physical mobility, and limited decision- making ability. Most fundamentally, these girls may be disempowered in ways that deprive them of their basic rights to health, education, equality, non-discrimination, and to live free from violence and exploitation, which continue to affect them into adulthood. These dynamics affect not only the girls themselves, but their children, households, communities and societies, limiting their ability to reach their full social and economic potential. While child marriage is widely considered a human rights issue closely connected to gender inequality,1 the significance of the practice’s impacts at both the individual and societal levels suggests that ending child marriage may play an important role in alleviating poverty and in promoting economic development. Ending child marriage can improve health at the individual and population levels, increase productivity and enhance the opportunity to realize the gains in a country’s economic growth that can result from declining birth rates and a shifting population age structure, commonly referred to as the ‘demographic dividend.’ To date, however, there has been relatively little in the way of rigorous assessment of the economic impacts of child marriage or how much child marriage may “cost” countries and societies. To address this gap, the World Bank and the International Center for Research on Women (ICRW) collaborated on an extensive and innovative research project to assess the impacts of child marriage on a range of development outcomes, and to understand the economic costs associated with these impacts across countries. By establishing the effects that child marriage has on economic outcomes, the research project aimed to catalyze more effective and evidence-based action to prevent it. The conceptual framework that guided our work follows: 1 As enshrined in UN General Assembly Resolution 71/175 (December, 2016), “child, early and forced marriage is a harmful practice that violates, abuses or impairs human rights.” Page 1 · ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: WOMEN’S DECISION MAKING AND SELECTED OTHER IMPACTS BRIEF June 2017 Domains of Impact Aggregate Measures Development Of Impacts And Costs Outcomes Fertility and population growth CHILD MARRIAGE Earnings, productivity & Health, nutrition and violence consumption per capita Multiple pathways Educational attainment and learning and intergenerational Perpetuation Of Extreme effects through which Poverty And Private impacts are observed & public Inequality Participation in the labor force expenditures and type of work Participation, decision-making and investments Non-monetary and social costs This brief summarizes results from an analysis on the impacts of child marriage on women’s decision-making ability within the household, land ownership, knowledge of HIV/AIDS, and birth registrations. While these topics are all related to agency, What Do We Mean it should be emphasized that they do not together provide a comprehensive measure of agency, which is beyond the scope by Impacts and of this study. This brief and selected other publications from Associated Costs? the study can be found at: www.costsofchildmarriage.org  The aim of the study is to estimate the impacts of child marriage on development outcomes and the IMPACT OF CHILD MARRIAGE economic costs associated with some of these impacts. The term “impact” ON DECISION-MAKING is used for simplicity, but one must be careful about not necessarily inferring We first examined the impact of child marriage on women’s causality. Most estimates of impacts are ability to make decisions within the household. To conduct obtained through regression analysis in the econometric analysis, we created an index that takes a order to control for other variables that value between zero and one hundred, based on a variety may affect the outcomes of interest. of factors that affect decision-making, using data from In some cases, simulations are used. the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). Four types What is measured are thus statistical of variables were included to construct the index. First, associations, and not necessarily impacts currently married women were asked to respond to questions as could be observed, for example, with on household decision-making in four areas: health care, randomized control trials. Since child household purchases, visits to friends and relatives, and marriage cannot be randomized, we the use of husband’s earnings. For each question, women must rely on regression analysis in order responded as to whether they make decisions alone, with their to estimate likely impacts, but there is husband/partner, or if the husband or another person makes always a risk of bias in the measures decisions for them. Second, women were asked if they can of the likely impacts of child marriage. refuse to have sex with their husband and if they can request Based on measures of likely impacts, their husband to use a condom when having sex. In addition, costs associated with selected impacts women indicated whether they felt a husband was justified are then computed. Note that we provide in beating his wife under the following circumstances: if the cost estimates only for some, and not all wife goes out without telling her husband, if she neglects her impacts. These costs rely on a number children, if she argues with her husband, or if she refuses to of assumptions, and are thus tentative. have sex with him. Finally, women were asked whether getting Overall, the costs represent an order of their husband’s permission to get medical help for themselves magnitude of potential costs rather than was a major problem. precise estimations. For more details on the methodology and how it relates to key empirical findings, see Wodon (2017). Page 2 · ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: WOMEN’S DECISION MAKING AND SELECTED OTHER IMPACTS BRIEF June 2017 For the purposes of this analysis, we first assessed the The conclusion from the analysis is that in many contexts, relationship between child marriage and decision-making child marriage is likely to have, either directly or indirectly, a directly. In addition, given that child marriage has a direct and negative impact on women’s decision-making ability within negative association with girls’ educational attainment, we the household, but the magnitude of the impact depends on consider the potential impact of child marriage on decision- country context. making indirectly, through the effect that that child marriage has on reduced educational attainment. It is also worth noting that additional analysis, including analysis based on data collected for this study, suggests that Table 1 provides the main results in terms of the marginal child marriage may reduce the overall psychological well-being effects that child marriage as well as educational attainment and other aspects of agency among women when they marry have on the decision-making index. The direct impact of child at a very early age. marriage on decision-making ability is statistically significant for about a third of the countries. In Mali, for example, being married as a child reduces women’s decision-making capacity by 2.23 points on the index (on scale from zero to 100). In addition, child marriage may also have an effect on “No, I cannot decide. I cannot decision-making ability through its impact on education. We decide on my children’s say “may have” because only associations and not impacts are measured in the regression analysis, and not all of the education and regarding my girls who marry early would have been able to achieve a family… We have to move higher level of education if they had married later. As shown in Table 1, higher educational attainment for girls is associated according to the husband. He with increased decision-making ability, so by curtailing is the master. We don’t have girls’ schooling, child marriage may indirectly reduce a girl’s any rights. All the decisions decision-making ability. Note that when considering marriage by girls under the age of 15 (results not shown here), direct about the home, family, impacts on decision-making tend to be statistically significant studies of the children are and negative in more countries, albeit not all. taken by him.” TABLE 1: IMPACT OF CHILD MARRIAGE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT ON DECISION- “A boy from our community MAKING ABILITY showed up and asked for my Child Education Absolute Percentage (vs. none) reduction reduction daughter’s hand... I asked in total fertility versus base (national) if she was interested in the (national) marriage and if she loved the Bangladesh NS NS 2.97 5.73 boy. She was too shy to speak Burkina Faso -1.55 2.50 8.73 15.48 and wouldn’t say a word… Dem. Rep. of Congo NS 1.92 4.35 15.37 After about three days my Egypt NS 1.37 7.80 11.61 second wife reported to me Ethiopia NS 5.66 11.88 21.61 that my daughter agreed to Malawi NS NS 2.44 3.31 marry.” Mali -2.23 NS 6.82 15.58 QUALITATIVE DATA COLLECTED BY ICRW AND THE WORLD BANK. Mozambique NS 1.60 4.07 4.16 Nepal NS NS 0.36 0.33 Niger NS NS 3.79 20.44 Nigeria -1.13 1.50 3.01 6.39 Pakistan 2.04 4.83 8.03 11.19 Rep. of Congo NS 4.86 9.10 14.26 Uganda NS NS 4.19 13.73 Zambia -1.22 NS 5.62 11.37 Source: Onagoruwa and Wodon (2017a). Note: NS = Not statistically significant at the 10 percent level. Page 3 · ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: WOMEN’S DECISION MAKING AND SELECTED OTHER IMPACTS BRIEF June 2017 IMPACT OF CHILD MARRIAGE ON IMPACT OF CHILD MARRIAGE LAND OWNERSHIP ON WOMEN’S KNOWLEDGE OF Although there is a very limited evidence base on this topic, HIV/AIDS we hypothesized that child marriage could affect decision- Child marriage can have a direct or indirect impact on various making ability for women as well as productivity through its forms of knowledge, apart from the knowledge acquired in effect on ownership of land and other assets. For this study, school. An example is that of knowledge related to HIV/AIDS. we examined the impact of child marriage on land ownership Following the approach used for the decision-making index, using DHS data. These data only provide information on we created an index of knowledge (from zero to 100) about whether a woman owns land by herself, jointly with her HIV/AIDS using a range of questions from the DHS. Specifically, husband/partner, or under both types of ownership – they do the DHS asks women if they agree or disagree with certain not address the type of size of land or other assets. statements on HIV/AIDS preventive measures, transmission modes and symptoms. To estimate the impacts, we used multivariate regression analyses for the various categories of ownership: alone, The results of our analysis in terms of the impacts of both jointly, both and all types of ownership combined. Table 2 child marriage and education on this index are provided in provides the results. The interpretation of the coefficients is Table 3. For most countries, the direct impact of child marriage in terms of percentage point gains or losses in the likelihood on knowledge about HIV/AIDS appears to be statistically of ownership. In Nigeria, for example, the coefficient of 0.0097 insignificant, but as is the case with decision-making, child suggests that marrying early actually increases the likelihood marriage may have negative impacts on HIV/AIDS knowledge of land ownership alone by about one percentage point for through education, with the effects growing the longer a girl women in comparison to marrying later. In most cases, when remains in school. Across countries, girls with completed coefficients are statistically significant, they tend to be positive secondary education tend to score about five to 10 points (the exception is Mali). That is, our analysis suggests that there higher on the index of HIV/AIDS knowledge than girls with only appears to be a positive association between child marriage primary education. Specifically, as can be seen in the table, and land ownership. While further research is needed to increased educational attainment is positively associated better understand the effects at work, we do note that existing with knowledge gains on HIV/AIDS. In Egypt, for example, a measures of land ownership from the DHS are very limiting, so girl who has completed secondary education scores 27 points we cannot make definitive conclusions about the relationship higher on the index of HIV/AIDS knowledge than a girl with at this time. no education. While only a fraction of this effect would likely be realized if child marriage was ended today because not TABLE 2: IMPACT OF CHILD MARRIAGE ON LAND OWNERSHIP BY CATEGORY OF OWNERSHIP all girls who would have married early would have been able to complete secondary school, this does suggest an indirect Ownership Joint Both All types effect of child marriage on HIV/AIDS knowledge. alone ownership types of combined ownership TABLE 3: IMPACT OF CHILD MARRIAGE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT ON KNOWLEDGE Burkina 0.0218 NS 0.0043 0.0349 ABOUT HIV/AIDS Faso Education (vs. none) DRC 0.0100 NS NS NS Child Primary Secondary Post Egypt NS NS NS NS marriage Secondary Ethiopia 0.0240 NS NS 0.0427 Bangladesh NS 14.50 32.59 37.76 Mali -0.0121 NS NS NS Burkina NS NS 4.06 6.32 Mozam- 0.0111 NS NS 0.0320 DRC NS NS 7.32 8.52 bique Egypt -5.45 NS 26.99 44.86 Nepal 0.0145 NS NS 0.0157 Ethiopia NS 6.67 7.29 5.29 Niger 0.0185 0.0180 NS 0.0439 Malawi NS 2.38 4.11 4.09 Nigeria 0.0097 NS NS 0.0144 Mali NS NS 11.00 6.17 Pakistan NS 0.0049 NS NS Mozambique -2.55 3.17 4.32 5.46 Rep. 0.0121 0.0150 NS 0.0310 Nepal NS 14.95 23.89 26.83 Congo Niger NS 8.00 12.14 19.94 Uganda 0.0258 NS NS NS Nigeria NS 5.51 7.06 9.27 Rep. of NS 4.861 9.097 14.26 Congo Pakistan 2.70 10.24 29.86 46.52 Uganda NS NS 4.186 13.73 Rep. of Congo -2.65 8.58 12.79 17.39 Zambia -1.222 NS 5.622 11.37 Uganda NS NS 4.91 4.17 Source: Savadogo and Wodon (2017). Zambia NS 5.02 6.85 9.13 Note: NS = Not statistically significant at the 10 percent level. Source: Onagoruwa and Wodon (2017b). Note: NS = Not statistically significant at the 10 percent level. Page 4 · ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: WOMEN’S DECISION MAKING AND SELECTED OTHER IMPACTS BRIEF June 2017 TABLE 4: IMPACT OF CHILD MARRIAGE ON IMPACT OF CHILD MARRIAGE ON BIRTH REGISTRATIONS BIRTH REGISTRATIONS Observed Impact of share (%) child marriage When girls who are below the minimum legal age of marriage have children, they and those around them may be hesitant Burkina Faso 76.9 NS to register the births of these children, as they may fear Democratic 24.6 NS prosecution or punishment. Whether this type of disincentive Republic of Congo is at work depends on the context of each country and Egypt 99.4 - whether the legal minimum age of marriage is enforced. Still, it is useful to test whether such effects may be at work, which we Mozambique 47.9 NS do here using DHS data. Nepal 42.3 NS As shown in Table 4, the analysis of the data suggests that Niger 63.9 NS child marriage does not have a statistically significant impact Nigeria 29.8 NS on birth registration in the countries used for our study for Republic of Congo 90.8 NS which the data include information on birth registration or certification. Uganda 29.9 NS Zambia 11.3 NS Source: Onagoruwa and Wodon (2017c). Note: In Egypt, virtually all children are registered, so that the regression analysis does not apply. Page 5 · ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: WOMEN’S DECISION MAKING AND SELECTED OTHER IMPACTS BRIEF June 2017 CONCLUSION Child brides are vulnerable—they are young, often poorly educated, and from disadvantaged socio- economic backgrounds. When they marry early, they may fall even more under the control of their husband and in-laws than would have been the case if they had married later. This can limit their aspirations, availability of resources, as well as their agency, including their ability to make basic decisions regarding education or accessing health care during pregnancy and delivery. Our analysis as part of this study is too limited to make definitive conclusions about the impact of child marriage on women’s agency, even if it is clear from the briefs in this series that this impact is likely to be consequential. Our analysis, as reported in this brief, does however suggest that child marriage is likely to reduce women’s decision-making ability, both directly and through the impact that child marriage has on reducing girls’ educational attainment. The impacts on other areas, such as knowledge of HIV/AIDS and birth registration, tend to be much less significant. Paradoxically, child marriage seems to be associated with an increase in the likelihood of land ownership, but additional work is needed to understand this effect and whether it remains when considering the amount and type of land owned. This particular brief does not include cost estimates for some of the impacts being documented. This does not mean that the impacts have no costs. To the extent, for example, that a lack of decision- making for child brides may lead to higher fertility, these impacts could lead to substantial costs, as documented in the separate brief on fertility and population growth in this series. Overall, the findings here, together with the other assessments of the impacts of child marriage, suggest the need for more and better programs and policies to end this harmful practice. Page 6 · ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: WOMEN’S DECISION MAKING AND SELECTED OTHER IMPACTS BRIEF June 2017 REFERENCES Onagoruwa. A. O. and Q. Wodon. (2017a). Impact of Child Marriage on Women’s Decision-Making Ability across Multiple Countries. Education Global Practice. Washington, DC: The World Bank. Onagoruwa. A. O. and Q. Wodon. (2017b). Impact of Child Marriage on Women’s Knowledge of HIV-AIDS across Multiple Countries. Education Global Practice. Washington, DC: The World Bank. Onagoruwa. A. O. and Q. Wodon. (2017c). Impact of Child Marriage on the Registration of Children at Birth across Multiple Countries. Education Global Practice. Washington, DC: The World Bank. Savadogo, A. and Q. Wodon. (2017). Impact of Child Marriage on Land Ownership across Multiple Countries. Education Global Practice. Washington, DC: The World Bank. Wodon, Q. (2017). Estimating the Economic Impacts and Costs of Child Marriage Globally: Methodology and Estimates. Education Global Practice. Washington, DC: The World Bank. The Economic Impacts of Child Marriage project is a collaborative Recommended citation: Wodon, Q., A. N. Onagoruwa, and A. effort by the International Center for Research on Women (ICRW) Savadogo (2017). Economic Impacts of Child Marriage: Women’s Agency and the World Bank, with funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates and Other Impacts. Washington, DC: The World Bank and International Foundation and the Children’s Investment Fund Foundation, and Center for Research on Women. additional support from the Global Partnership for Education. This series of papers is jointly produced by the International Center © 2017 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / for Research on Women and the World Bank and is available at The World Bank and the International Center for Research on Women (ICRW), www.costsofchildmarriage.org  The findings, interpretations Washington, DC 20433. and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the author(s) and should not be attributed in any manner to the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations or to members of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent. Citation and the use of material presented in this series should take into account this provisional character. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of the World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Page 7 · ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: WOMEN’S DECISION MAKING AND SELECTED OTHER IMPACTS BRIEF June 2017