R_E_S_TR I C_T E D Annex IV to AiI2 t-Al I Z VolI. 5 r- 1 This report was prepared for use within the Bank. It may not be published nor may it be quoted bs reprei...... the Bank's views. The Bank accepts no | responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the contents of the report. T1 'ERMATIONATL RAMTN 1FOR RE TPCON5TTRTCTTCON AND DRVEL.OPMENT THE ELECTRIC POWER INDUSTRY X11 YUGOSLAVIA January 19, 1961 ANNEX _V THE ELECTRIC P1.:ER IWDUSTRY IN YUGOSLAVIA Table of Contents SUIM-RY i-i I. THE SETT _ G Resources 1 The Recient Growth of the Industry 2-3 The System Today 3-5 II. ORGANIZATIOI3 AND OPERATIONJ OF THE INDUSTRY Organization 6-8 The Calculations of Costs 8-9 The Return on Investment in Power 9-10 The Financing of Investment 10-11 The Criteria for Investment 11 III. THE INVLSTi'iN PLANS FOR 1960-66 12-13 MAP TABLES (1 - 11) APP FUDIX I _ STATB'1UT OF COCiJITIOMS UNDER !.i1HICH YUGOSLAV ITNWESTI 1ET7 - RAN1( VtTT.T. BF.CF:T1VK Ai\Tj KiUAT.UATPT APP.TC.iAATOTN FClp TLOAriS FOR ELECT.tIC POIV. R PRODUCTION SUIvYARY i. Yugoslavia is richly endowed with water power resources of which only 7% are at present developed. A large expansion of hydro plant can be made with relatively low investment per unit of capacity. There are also large resources of coal of low quality distributed widely about the country. ii. Much progress has been made since the war towards the construc- tion of a national po-wer sy-stem. Since 1950 the rate of growth of electricity production has been 14-15% per year, or about double the Euro- pean average. Since 1953 the growth has been even more rapid. In the early post-war years, heavy emphasis was placed on hydro projects. The existing system is heavy on hydro (60% of capacitv)7 short on storage and subject to large reductions in available power during the annual low water periods in the fall. This nroblem of no er shortages during periond of low water and the need to construct new capacity quickly have led to a reannraissl of the role of thermal plants in the system. It is now expected that roughly 65% of capacity will be hydro by the mid-1960's instead of the previous goal of S0:. iiia The industry is organized in a u-ique way. Each plant is a separate enterprise. There is a single transmission enterprise for each Rep_ublic and there are many d Strbutin- enterprises. Their operations are coordinated through associations of producers (Unions) on the Republican level and on the Federal level. iv. Fower is sold throughout the country according to a uniform schedule of rates while each producer is paid for his output according to a set of standards devised for his particular enterprise. The Republlcan. Unions act as financial intermediaries - buying from producers and selling to distribution enterprises. Deficits arnd s-urpluses are balanced out at the Federal :Level. The method by which the costs of producing enterprises are coml-puted is biased in favor of hydro power mainly because of especialily low capital charges. However, since these costs do not provide the prin- .Lpa.L UasiLs :or L inves IVUtientU decisions, the flects ofi suehi distortions are limited. V. Tinvestment is financed largely by loan funds from outside the industry, mainly those administered by the Investment Bank. However, enterprises con- tribute to these funds through the capital tax and that portion of their depre- ciation which is used to repay loans. There are plans to increase the power rate so that a greater armiount of the funds used for investment can come from the enterprises. vi. In addition to consideration of investment costs, the criteria under which loans are to be granted in the future by the Investment Bank recogni1ze the need for the rapid construction of generating facilities, the need for firm po-wer and the desirability for local (Republics, local governments and enterprises) participation in the investment. vii. The plans for expansion seem realistic and the industry's staff appears competent to carry them out. The extension of the 220 K.V grid an,cl the construction of plants with considerably larger units than those hereto- for manke economic sense. A.,Althouk the method of finW-4 is unusual, it is workable and there are reasons to expect that what seems to be its most obvious deficiency, the not unusual one of charging too little for power, rmy be alleviated this year. The Electric Power Industry in Yugoslavia I. T H E SErimTTIN? Resources 1. The water power resources of Yugoslavia have been estimated to be sufficient to produce 66 bill-Ion kWh per year. At the present time less than 5 billion kWh or about 7% of this potential is developed. Yugoslav resources are of the same order of magnitude as those of Italy and France, somewhat less than Sweden and substantially exceeded only by those of Norway. However, among all Western European countries only Norway has more unex- ploited water power. Of this vast potential the Yugoslavs estimate that 30 billion kl,Jh can be developed at an investment of 15 to 35 dinars per annual kM;lh produced. (Assuming 4,000 hours operation per year and 632 dinars to the dollar - the present clearing rate - 35 dinars per kWh per year is equivalent to $220 per KW). Even with a generous allowance for the usual optimism of such estimates, there is no doubt that the country has nany economically attractive hydro-electric sites. 2. The physical basis for this happy situation lies in the fortunate combination of high mountains and heavy rainfall. From the mountains that parallel the Adriatic Coast (Dinaric Alps) and those which extend northward through Slovenia into Austria (Julian Alps) the land drops quickly towards the Adriatic Sea, or the plains of the Sava and Danube rivers. As a result of the warm moist winds which sweep northward from the MSediterranean, these mountain areas receive heavy precipitation, especially in the winter months. The highest rainfall in Europe is in the mountains of Niontenegro. In the southern parrt of the country this results in peak stream flows during the winter. In the north where the run off is retarded by the freezing weather, the rivers reach their peak in the spring. The combination of heavy flow, and steep gradients produces conditions most favorable for hydro-electric developnment. On the other hand, the seasonal character of the precipitation results in large variations over the year in the flow of the rivers. Though the water regime of the northern Alpine rivers compliments that of the southern rivers to some extent, the availability of water in late summer mnd early fall is far below that of the early part of the year. At the present time generation during the driest part of the year (August to October) is about 40%0 of the maximum possible generation in the period of high water (Piarch toiApril) and the variation. between generation in an average and a dry Year (1 out of everv 10) is about 20%. In terms of power development, this makes it necessary to supplement run of the river power plants with a combinantion nof lnrap reservoirs and thermal plants. 3. Fortuantely +.he nal resources of Yugoslavia are extensive even if of very low quality. Reserves are distributed widely about the country and are estimated to be 21.6 billion tons, 90% of' which is lignite. At the current rate of consumption, this quantity would last for 1,000 years. At the present time about 205-' of coal production is used for the generation of electric power and this proportion is steadily increasing. The Recent Growth of the Industry 4. The production of electric power has always received heavy emphasis in the Yugoslav development plans. Between 1946-1959 about 20% of total investment in industry and mining was allocated to electric power. As a result about 4/5 of the country's power capacity has been constructed since the war and production has been increased to a level about 8 times pre-war. Since 1950 the rate of growth of power production has been 14-15% or roughly double the European average. However, in spite of this rapid expansion, consumption in 1959 had only reached 435 klJh per capita - a level below that of Spain and Hungary. The variations among areas within the country are very great. The per capita consumption in Slovenia is about 7 times that of Miacedonia and lAontenegro, and is similar to Belgium and France; the c- sunption in the other too republics is similar to that of Greece and Turkey. 5. In the post-war expansion particular emphasis has been given to the construction of hydro capacity, especially in the earlier years. 14here- as 65% of total capacity and 61% of total generation was accounted for by thermal plants in 1939, the proportions had dropped to 40% and 42% by 1959. However, as shown in the following table, the preference for hydro appears less strong in the recent years. Rates of Growth of Canacitv Hvdro Thermal Total 19L5-50 6.5 3.5 5.0 1950-55 17.5 6=0 1A 1955-60 17-n 12-n 15= 6. This apparent shift in the evaluation of the relative merits of the two tvnes of plants is also refleet.Pd in a chnnge in exP.ec-tatin-n ofn the future composition of capacity. A few years ago it was expected that the svstsm would have its capaIetv divided roughly 80% hytr-o and 20% thermal by the mid-1960's; today the plans are for a balance of 65% hydro and 35% therm.al instead. The shilft ins the empzhasis from hydro to the-rm.al carant in this case be explained simply in terms of the increasing cost of hydro as the best sites are developed.* In. fact, a nuvmber of the h;ydro proj ects constructed in the early period were very high cost - much higher than those nowy being const+ructed - and the Yugoslavs frarly state- that- vu1er he investment criteria they are now using, these would never have been built. 7. Basically the growing recognition of the attractiveness of therrMi power has been the result of the development of more realistic methods of 1/ On the basis of data presented by the Federal Electricity Union, hydro- electric plants now being constructed are averaging 40% cheaper than those constructed during the early post-war years. - 3 - evaluating costs and benefits. In the early post-war period under the system of centralized administrative management, cost considerations were secondary, capital costs in particular were neglected, 1/ and the attraction of monumental projects was as strong in the field of electric power as else- where. The fact that domestic production could supply a greater part of the equipment for hydro-electric stations than for thermal plants was also in part a cause (and probably in part an effect) of the emphasis on hydro. The general re-organization of the economy with the increasing emphasis on costs, prices and profits, the hard problem of continual pcwer shortages during periods of low water and the need to construct new power capacity quickly all have forced the YueQslav authorities to adopt more realistic methods of project appraisal. / The System Todav 8. By 1959 generating capacity in Yugoslavia had reached 1884 MW, of which 601 was hydra and L0O thermal AR% of this total consisted of plants generating for public supply; the remainder was accounted for by industrial plants generating principallv forv their nu se Most, of this capacity, 85% of the hydro and 55% of the thermal, was built since the war. 9. The hydro plants are mostly run of the river but storage capacity has been increased sharply in recent - S. In 1T 5 itA wa- 5 of total annual hydro generating capacity. By 1960 this had reached ll$ and pro- jects under construction are expected to bring it 4 ' by -1 ever- theless, it will still not be sufficient to prevent a considerable decline in the availability of po-wer during thle annual low water period in the fall. XV. Irlc tilermaL capaciuy of ±UgoSiaV1a 'L' g bU. 1u ,U old and inefficient. Only three plants iX have units larger than 35 lAW. However, these three, cvzhih were buiit since 1956, eonstitute 35% of the capacity for public supply and provie40% of the generation. The thermaL efficiency of the industry was 23% al in 1958 and would have been 16% if the same three plants were excluded. 11. As shown in the attached map, the country is divided into three major power systems: the north-western system, comprising Slovenia and western Croatia; the central system, comprising Bosnia and Hercegovina, iviontenegro and the rest of Croatia (Dalmatia and Slavonia) and the eastern system, comprising Serbia and Macedonia. In 1957 with the completion of the transmission line from the hydro plant at Jayce in the central system to Zagreb in -the north-western system, the three became inter-connected at 110 KV. At the present time a national 220 KV grid is under construction. (see map) Part of this is completed and is carrying 220 KV, another part 1/ This is still the case in the calculations of nroduction costs in the electric power industry. See para. 23. 2/ See nqra. 3Oand Appendix 1T i/ Kolubara, near Belgrade; Kakanj, in Bosnia, and Sostanj,in Slovenia. A/ BPsed on daia on 83% of total gen.eration for public supply. is being used temporarily for 110 KV, and additional sections are to be built in the next. few venrs. The Yugoslav system, is also connected with Austria (110 KV), Greece (110 KV) and Hungary (40 KV) and negotiations are uncprwuv to cnnnect with the Itnlinn (220 KVV) svstm Yugoslavia exnorts a small amount of power to these countries. Capacity. Generation and Peak Load by Svstems 1 o'o GCpaons Geeair/ Hydro Total Peak Load Hydro otal onsmption y X41 I\J% 0 lotal -UT5-Z7-h "J C7 'I ALT 111.6 I ,-" North-western System 65 668 450 64 2,724 2,840 Central System 75 462 350 78 2,340 1,918 Eastern System 60 523 400 53 2,001 2,052 66% 1,653 1,200 65% 7,065 6,810 a Excludes capacity and generation of industrial plants which are predominantly thermal. / Excluding own consumption of power plants. 12. Industry is by far the lnrgest consumer of electric power in Yugoslavia. In recent years it has accounted for 73% of total consumption. Rnnce 1957 the proportion has dropped to 69% as a i rnlt of' the rapi growth of household use, but it still stands at about the European average. Wajithin the lndustri al sector the proportion 4 nsm ,d 1 I,-r chemical and electro-mtetallurgical industries has been rising and in recent years has accounted, 1f'or over 30$11 o ±f L +3j. -o--A cy ±- 4-A---ry. J .'U~J i'J. ex L U 1,1 jUl UY[ U 1 UIi L' onJ (% of total consumption) 1956 1957 l198 15q9 Industry 73 73 70 69 Pcuer-intensive Tr.dustries '1 / 221 '2 321 .LnU'u.st1'1t:;j =f OC~~~. .j ' - I. 1 Rest 2/ 10 'i 1i 11 / Electro-chemical and electro-metall;.trgical. M/ Vunicipal lighting and services, commerce, etc. - 5 - 13. The load factor for the public system is high. Over the past fonr years it has averaged about 64%. This is mainl> ue to i-hp hpeau industrial use and the important position of power-intensive industries. A contributing factor has been the highly differentiated systen of rates which distinguishes between night and day, and between periods of high andl low uat - 6 - II. ORGANIZATION AND OPERATION OF THE IAIDUSTRY Crganization 1L. Tn the Perlv ponqt._wr vpyr.s tlhe nlTsnninpr nnd oneration of the electricity industry was under a single centralized authority, the Federal Ministry nf TIPrtrinitv- The move townrd decentralization that took place throughout the economy after 1950 was reflected in the electricity industry hv the est- . of ente1rpri s n_ra rA If'rny-tramp II (vnrl anlileIU J1LL LUUjjk;F2 U.L L,1e r UUt La_l UILLUrl. Ili(" --xlu-1,11a a costs" Y set for each enterprise are coordinated by the Federal Union and it hndles the dispatching of power and the planning of investmernts on a country-wide basis. It also reviews the technical feasibility of all pro- posed power projects and together with the planning institute advises the Investment Bank on the allocation of investment resources. Thus, there is in fact a considerable centrailzation of control and standardization of operation in the industry. 19. iWith the development of a national grid and the increasing and evident need for a closer coordination of power activities on a country- wide basis, there is pressure for giving greater authority to the Federal Union. In Et recent report on4he 220 KV transmission system, a firm of American consulting engineers ~' urged a strengthening of the technical staff of the Federal Union and its more active role in the control and direction of system operations, in the conduct of overall system studies and in the coordination of the work of the Republican Unions. Underlying this recommendation is the fact that the most natural division of the country in terms of electric systems, as already noted, simply does not coincide withl the boundaries of the individual Republics. 20. The operating relationships between enterprises and unions are briefly as follows: the unions in effect buy power from their producing enterprises at cost, or from other unions at a price set by the Federal Union, pay the transmission enterprises for their services on the basis of costs and sell the power to large consumers or distribution enterprises. Actually the transactions with distribution enterprises, which are not members of the unions, are not in the form of sales, as the term is generally used. At presen\, power is sold to consumers at prices fixed for the country as a whole 2/ and the distribution enterprises wi,thhold an amount to cover their cost returning the balance to the Union. Since i-/ See para. 241. vJ Report on 220 KV Transmission System for Yugoslavia, prepared for Zajednica Jugoslovenske ZLektroprivrede "Yugel", by Engineering Consultants, Inc., Denver, Colorado, Technical Consultant for U.S. Operations Mission to Yugoslavia, May, 1960. / The rate system differentiates among classes of consumers, between night and day consumption and, in some cases, between seasons of high and low water conc0itions. Particularly low rates are provided for power-intensive industries and for households. In general, the level of rates is set with reference to the average costs of production. 4/ Cne of the proposed reforms for the system is to handle the transfer of power to the distribution companies on a strict sales basis and give the local authorities, under which these enterprises are organized, some control over setting the price to consumers. the selling price is fixed throughout the country, since costs vary from p lt-4---4ant u-o pilant, a-nd siLnce eacLh plant must, reciv s 0fiien in. to~. cover1-11 its costs, unions may have deficits or surpluses. Surpluses that occur are di4Lst'Lrib.,uted Ato mruemmer enepiss Aefi4cit4s are maAe up fro, a clic~~ V. 1 U .ti _ L 1 u IU L, tIIUeJ PJ. L; z i U A. J .1 ..tUD lI ~dU_ Up J. Li S~Iu (1 ± U.44'. administered by the Federal Union formed from the income tax payments of all power enterprises (the an±ons theumselves are not subject to incom,.e tax). The Calculations Uf Costs IC1. ITIe costs" Wich1 Uiu thUe L J1s paj Ith en1terprsI e for L eiir pro- duction and services are calculated according to a standard set for each individual enterprise under the supervision of the Federal Unlon. Fach cost schedule or set of "normative costs", as the Yugoslavs call them, is worked out in some detail. It includes all casn obli Ptions OI tne enter- prise, such as the tax on capital, interest on loans, -/ prescribed contf- butions to certain funds, etc., as well as allowances for depreciation, fuel (based on the efficiency of the plant's boilers and the price of fuel), other materials, maintenance, and labor. The standards appear to be rather loose in respect to fuel, materials and labor so that an enterprise is able by careful operation to save on these operating expenses and make substantial "profits". i/ 22. In respect to the amounts allowed for labor costs, there is as yet no general standard relating the wage bill to plant characteristics. Although the unions are apparently working towards this end, at the present time the practice appears to be to pay each plant a sufficient sum for labor to cover the guaranteed minimum wages for the labor force actually employed plus a margin for a "minimum profit". In general the size of the labor force in Yugoslav power Dlants is extremely large by comparison with, for example, U.S. practice. U/ This is partly due to the fact that each plant is a separate enterprise with its own overhead, maintenance, etc.. and also that many of themr, include in their labor force personnel required for constructing new additions snd nerforming auxiliary services. such as the transport of coal from nearby mines, etc. 23. Cn -the basis of the type of cost calculations outlined above, the average delivered cost of nower in Yugoslavia was 11 dinars per kl!h (1.7 cents at 632 dinars per dollar) in 1959, and the production cost of hydro power was about one-third thet of thermal power (2.7 dinars comnared with 9.7). The government recognizes that the price (cost) of power is too low and the Federal Union hns been riirecrted to recommend the innreases neees- sary to place the price on an "economic level" defined in terms of the / There are special rates for electric power - capital tax of l,o, and interest of 2%'; industry in general pays 6%. v/ Based on prescribed rates for the various items of equipment. Runs about 4; of original cost for thermal plants and about 2/o for hydro plants. 2/ There are also bonuses for performance and maintaining plant in a state of readiness and fines if a plant is not prepared to generate when called upon. ! e.g. over 100-150 employees in hydro plants of 60-90 1-ft and 200-400 in thermal plants of 64 hV, or about 4 to 5 times the work force of U.S. plants of comparable size. ability to finance a substantial part of new investment out of the rates. However, it appears to be less clearly recognized that the system of com- puting costs is biased in favor of hydro power. The fact that interest dar-ing Construction is r.ot irn.cluded in capita-l cost-s p'lus the fact.- thiat th.-e capital tax (1%) and the interest on loans (2%) are extremely low both work in favor of the more capital intensive method of production. In additiori, the fact that; there is no standard allowance for labor costs means that the tendeney towards inflated labor forces has the greatest effect in raising total costs in the case of the more labor intensive type of plant (thermal.). 24. The effect of this bias in method of computing costs, together writh the real advantages of hydro, creates an incentive for the unions of producers to favor hydro plants in the construction of new capacity, because this leads to increased surpluses for the Union to distribute to its member enterprises. However, this bias for hydro is tempered by the need to obtain power quickly, the need for firm power during periods of water shortage and the fact that, the unions have no direct control over the investment funds. The Return on Investment in Power 25. The method used for providing income for the enterprises in the power industry makes any calculation of profitability meaningless as a basis for comparison among plants. Profits for a particular plant are simply EL measure of ;"beating the norms" and the norms are not standard in respect to a very important input - labor. 1/ However, there may be some validity in attempting to make a rough estimate of return for the industry as a whole to obtain some measure of the relation between the price of power and the volume of capital investedi in the industry. Such a calculation shows the return for the entire industry in 1958 to have been 4.9%. Return on Investment in Electric Power Industrv (Generation, Transmission and Distribution) 1958 in billions of dinars Value of assets Gross receipts 73 Uperating expenses Depreciation 12 Materials 37 Wages 5 Total 54 Income 19 Return before taxes 4.9% Source: INDEKS #4, 1960 / For example, the return on investment before taxes of the Zvornik hydro plant in 195n was 2.5, while that of the Kolubara steam plant of similar output was 7.5%. But the cost of power from Zvornik was 2 dinars/kWh while that from Kilubara was 6.8 dinars/kWh. If Zvornik has received an equivalent income per kWh, its return would have been 16.5% (see Table 7). - 10 - 26. Because of the unusual Yugoslav accounting practices, it is not clear to what extent this rate can be compared with those found in other member coun- tries. However, it is low inhrelation to those calculated for other Yugos-Lav industries.on.the same.basis z/ and this is in large part a reflection of the special low capital tax (1%) and interest rate (2%) paid by electricity enter- prises. If electricity rates were raised to enable the industry to pay thle general rate of 6%, the return would be increased to 9-10%. However, the concern tof officials in the Federal Union with the present level of electricity rates lies not so much in considerations of return as in providing a greater amount of the cash required for new investment out of the rates. The Financing of Investment 27. Invesstment in the electric power industry is financed largely by funds from- outside the industry - the general inetmn f a a lesser extent republican and local investment funds. The first two are azdm-;rnstuered by 4the T---estle4 Dank, whlc inn -90wsgie_h rsos vj L LU ~LI1 ~1vt, ul~Ii1 4.U11A WI. L .1 .L7'.JV Wt~ r:4. Vt-jj . 1.U ibility for allocating fnds among power projects through a process of '.It J~ 4. 4~ b4AALU4.1f T . L1--±-U- 1I411~4 '± IJ4.P_A 9.~ I4. "comip etiti U-ve bJddUlng.Lr - IJLoca] f,ULds are used maanly foUr 'local distribu- tior. or for providing a part of the "local funds" required to supplement loans rom the -lIy 1nvesltmenu EL.K t11h uel1 ce4) VI I" 8te3l pI oJ ets L. 28. Neither the Republican nor Federal 1ectrlolty Unions have invest- ment funds of their own, and whereas enterprises do accumulate depreciation funds and earrn profils, they have not been imporbant sources for firianling new investment. That part of depreciation not used to repay loans / or for replacement and reconstruction is placed in the enterprise account wiJLt the National Bank and is not at the free disposal of the enterprise. Under certai-.i conditions these funds can be used to help finance new investment and with the trend to decentralization of investment financing, it may be expected that greater use will be made of them for this purpose in the future. In the case of the net income of enterprises under the present system with its low prices and high taxes, very little remains after incentive wages have been paid. 29. Although enterprises do not supply investment funds directly, they do contribute to tne resources of tne investment bank tnat does finance the bulk of new investment through their payments of taxes and repayment of loans. In 1958, for example, for all production and trans- mission enterprises the repayment of loans (principal and interest) and the tax on capital assets amounted to 5.7 billion dinars, or about 17io of total. receipts in that year. This was equivalent to about 11% of the average level of investment planned for the period 1960-66. (If all depreciation were included, the amount would have been 11.2 billion dinars, or 22% of the planned investment rate). These computations exclude taxes on income which though substantial go into a fund used to meet Union deficits and 4.11- - Ciro) U1~A4 t111 J. IL'IA~L IA Ut. ~ L ±LLIt '1~ 41L±. R~ ;:y/ In .17,8 UlhE. retlurn f'or othler industries calcul1ated or, a si,..lar ba0sis was generally above 12% with important sectors earning over 20% and some A method for determining priorities. See_Appendix I. 2/ Loans for electric power are at present amiorLized over 30 and 50 years; depreciation rates assume a life of 25 and 50 years for thermal and hydro respectively. - 11 - are not used fc,r investment. Officials in the Federal Union and the Investment Bank woul-d like to finance much more in this way nnd they expect it may be possible to increase rates sufficiently to finance about 50%0 of new investment "out of the rates" th-rough payments by en-terprises into the General Investment Fund. This would probably involve an increase in the general rate level on the order of Int. Ma rriterla f. .rinvestmelnt 30. The recen.tly adopted statement of criter under which the Investment Bank is to grant loans for new investment projects in the field of power is shown in Appendix 'L. 'tMI th1e presen'tL timue mos't of..4 thAe f.nd.s the I.nvestm.ent Bank allots to power are absorbed by projects already underway. This new procedure will presently be applied to future expansions of existlng plants and to new projects. 30a. Recognizing that the statement of criteria covers a wide range of considerations and thnat the weights to be given to the various factors cannot be known in advance, nevertheless it is possible to gain from this statement a general idea of what are considered to be the more relevant fact`-i.-2in., appraising investments. The new emphasis on decentralization will be noted in the importance given to participation in the investment by the borrower with his own funds. The borrower in this case may be a republican government, a local government, or an enterprise. It will be also noted that whereas the method of computing costs would indicate that hydro power is by far the most attractive, the emphasis on investment per kWh, on producing during periods of low water, and on short completion time all favor thermal plants. The criteria set up by the Bank seem on the whole to make good economic sense, while the method of determining enterprise costs is obviously unrealistic. However, although the cost system used in the industry is distorted, nevertheles: its economic effects would appear to be limited since it does not provide the basis for investment decisions. III. THE ITVESTML§T PLANS FOR. 1960-66 31. The Yugoslavs expect the mrket for electric power to grow at a rate of 14.5"" per year for the period 1960-66 (see Table 8). This is the same as the average rate 1950-59, but considerably less than the 18%o rate at which nonswurntion has grown since 193. The most imnortnnt comnonent of this demand, industrial use, is expected to grow at a rate of 12%, some- what l than the ernec±t.ePr rat.e of oynannion of industrial outnut (13?). Domestic and other uses are expected to grow correspondingly more rapidly, but not as rapidly as they have grourn in the last few veers heeh-iise of the recent increases in rates for domestic consumers. Considering the rate nf' expa nsi-:onn of then ecnomy te estimatesseem rneaonnnnable anrd evern if they should turn out to be over optimistic, the system could use some re- servtue capa-c i t and thk,e re is - also^ +he p-i ^ s J r,iit'xT n of' e p rt. lo. A t Ithe present ti4e there is n f t rv4.i 4'U ~1~ u %I _L~L U ~~ L JC 1I'. ~4.4.L ~ U. --p-. ~U.~4 ~4 Yugoslavia. Although the installed capacity is greater than the peak load, WS1te 'La'uC 'Ller o c- s i i'icer U t%r a-t t- t-il-Il wLht::11 bUlt; VULLPUb V4. @L- Oj-@ IL oQ considerably reduced by low water conditions. In fact, for this reason restrictions have had to be placed on industrial consu,ption in thl.e past three years. In 1959 such curtailment amounted to about 3.5% of total consu-mption. Thus new plantl will have to be constructed to cover at least the total expected increase in the market. This means nearly doubling capacity by 1966 and the Yugoslavs have already underway a sufficident number of projects to achieve this (see Tables 9, 10 and 11). The present (May 19tU) est:Lmatec6 cost of this promn.m ta as Ioiiows: Investment Program 1960-66 / 4.'- Ud+ J 'I JJ~ U1 I . .L1dI iUkt.4 4' TotUa_l Cost ForeL -,ig cll JAk.ange Forein bvchneL 109 dinars Cost 2a 109 din. Cost'1' l0 Hydro plants 196 49 77 Thermal plants 130 78 123 Transmission network 16 __2 5 342 130 205 I/ Includes projects under construction and also new projects to be started during the period. The amount estimated for the latter is arbitrarily divided 55% thermal and 45% hydro. 2/ Both direct Durchase of foreign equipment and foreign supplies needed for manufacturing of Yugoslav equipment - 25% of total cost for hvdro. 60Q for thermal and 17% for transmission. / At 632 dinars per dollar. 33. As shown in Table A, the planned expansion will not be sufficient to supply all the estimated requirements in a low water year, which is generally one ;yer out of 10. n Whren this occurs it is pl-anned to cnrtnil production in selected power-intensive industries. 34. The program of expansion represents a considerable change in the size of nlnnts and generating unit. over those prsntly installed in Yugoslavia. V'hereas the largest unit in existing thermal plants is now 40 MW, u-nder the progrnm 65, 75 and 125 'IMW i-it n?e to be iist'11ed Tn the case of hydro, 4 projects with capacities in excess of 200 MA are being built, with units up to 110 I) ; the largest plant now operating in the country has a capacity of 144 MW with 30 MfW units. 35. In addition to the projects listed in Tables 9 and 10, new capacity wll ~~ 7,- have4- tobest-td eore 196 Q t -o me el 4the inrae eeso h following years. It has not yet been decided where these expansions will take p'lace andUk 'the decision will preswmabiauly bue maude on thL'e basis-L- ofL the criteria established by the Investment Bank. 36. During the next few years important parts of the 220 KV network will be constructed tO lionk new hydro projects with the main ccenueu.sg cener airu to continue the expansion of the national network (see map). Although important parts; oI this network nave already been constructed, Lhere are alternative ways of joining certain sections of the system that should be given careful consideration befo,re tne construction of some of the proposed lines is actually undertaken.. 37. In summary: on the basis of a general survey of the industry, it appears that the Yugoslavs are attacking their power problems in a realistic manner. Their expansion plans are in line with their probable needs and their general scheme for the development of a mixed and balanced system integrated into a national network and their approach to the selection of projects within that scheme appears to make good economic sense. The staff' of the electric power industry itself and the associated industries producing electrical equipment and constructing power plants seem competent to carry out the program as it is planned. Although their method of financing is unusual, it is workable and there are reasons to expect that what seems to be its most obvious deficiency, the not unusual one of charging too little for power, may be alleviated this year. / See report on 220 KV Transmission System for Yugoslavia by Ehgineering Consultants, Inc., Denver, Colorado, on.cit. Table1 I TABlE 1 1939-1960 iLs talled Capacity rl-oduc t ion 1MW millions of kWh Year Total Hydro Thermal Total Hydro Thermal 1946 523 207 316 1, 60 478 6082 1947 528 211 317 1,458 595 863 1948 629 281 348 2,065 1,045 1,020 1949 651 285 366 2,219 1,021 1,198 1950 662 290 372 2,409 1,234 1,175 1951 662 296 366 2,545 1,354 1,191 1952 742 342 400 2,694 1,427 1,267 1953 853 429 424 3,002 1,515 1,487 1954 973 499 474 3,451 1,805 1,646 1955 1,148 646 502 4,379 2,614 1,765 1956 1,409 722 687 5,048 2,870 2,178 1957 1,675 949 726 6,252 3,522 2,730 1958 1,798 1,060 738 7,356 4,300 3,056 1959 1,884 1,133 751 8,106 4,708 3,398 19601/ 2,288 1,403 885 9,300 5,300 4,OCO Yu U U-IBuM El tru. a our-ces : Federa'l. Eet lyU n TABLE 2 Table 2 INSTALLED CAPACITY BY SYSTS; AND TYPE OF PL[UNT 195.-19q59 (in i'nr\ System.arndnr Tvy,,e of Plnvt Q9,%4 190Q 195 I 195 IQ7 I 195 I1959C The Worth-l.estern System Hydro 292 307 330 362 387 435 Thermal 112 117 207 219 233 233 Total 404 424 537 581 620 668 The Central System Hydro 128 205 205 301 345 345 Thermal 52 53 117 117 117 117 Total 180 258 322 418 462 462 The Eastern System Hydro 45 94 117 227 290 315 Thermal 142 144 208 208 208 208 Total 187 238 325 435 498 523 TOTAL CAPACITY FOR PUBLIC SUPPLY Hydro 465 606 652 890 1022 1095 Thermal 306 314 535 544 558 558 TOTAL 771 920 1.187 1LL3 1580 ThL3 Capacity of Industrial Enter- prises for own Use Hydro 34 40 70 59 38 38 Thermal 168 191 152 182 180 193 Total 202 231 222 241 218 231 TOTAL CAPACITY IN YUGOSLAVIA Hydro 499 646 722 949 1060 1133 Thermal 474 502 687 726 738 751 TOTAL 973 1148 1409 1675 1798 I884 TABLE 3 Table 3 TOTAL POWIR GL ; L RATL- BY %ST'IE AND TfPE OF PLANT -1954-59~ (in millions of klWh) System and Type of Plant 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 The North-Western Svstem Hydro 1091 1325 1339 1500 1814 1732 Thermal 316 L38 657 895 916 992 Total 1407 1763 1996 2395 2730 2724 The Central System Hvrdro L62 8130 877 1222 1LzO 1821 Thermal 198 123 204 299 403 519 Total 660 953 1081 1 21 I R 23LC0 The nasterr. Sstem Hydro 94 292 495 626 878 1057 Thermal 580 548 594Q 766 90°O 944 Total 674 840 1089 1392 1786 2001 TGTAL GTER`ATIO2T FOR PUBLIC S UTPPLY Hydro 1647 2447 2711 3348 4172 4610 TCTAL 2741 3556 4166 5308 6399 7065 Generation of industrial enterprises for o-wn use Hydro 158 167 159 174 128 98 IIteialUu±) I r 0:Vt_? 0 I ((U7 74J Total 710 823 882 944 957 1041 TOTAL PO~LtR G l`,RATICON IN' 'UCLVI A Hvdro 1805 2614 2870 3522 4300 4708 Thermal 1646 1765 2178 2730 3056 3398 TCTAL 3451 4379 5048 6252 7356 8106 TABLE 4 Table 4 PRINCIPAL LOAD Ca!TERS VIITH kiN_;UAL CCOISUMPTICN Ai,,T RST-IATF, QF PrEAx LOA 1957-1959 1957 1958 1959 Ccnsump- Gonump-- Consnmp- tion Peal- tn Peak tign Peak T h e I%JOrt h Weste. SysJtem Ljubljana 123 24 145 29 176 34 Mrbor,. 91 I i7 'I 19 'I 21 Zagreb 272 53 320 62 363 75 RiJ 7a0 73 14 on 1, 6* ) 1, Kidricevo (industrial tenterpris) s e s 43 ) 4.) )UU 45 Ruse "I 159 23 177 23 110 23 C'. y _ 1 C.1 "I r ^ 11 tr Sltore 0 67 12 7c 1o The Centrai System Split 124 24 139 26 154 29 1'iostar 33 7 3 48 Sarajevo 68 14 75 15 80 17 Osijek 42 8 47 9 52 li Split-Sibenik (irIdustrial enterprises? 391 58 400 62 360 67 Zenica " 147 32 167 38 180 40 Iiijas 7 1 71 10 i42 27 The Eastern System Beograd 366 85 443 92 490 112 Novi Sad 39 7 45 9 51 11 Nis 32 5 42 6 46 8 Skoplje 55 11 68 14 78 16 Bor (industrial enterprise) 134 17 150 19 155 20 Trepca 0i 57 10 58 10 62 10 Jegunovci 50 10 101 20 130 20 TABLE 5 Table 5 PATTE-fM OF ELECTRICITY USE 1954-1959 in millions of kWh 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 Gross production 3,445 4,384 5,062 6,249 7,356 8,106 - Own consumption of power plant 170 186 223 302 327 354 Net production 3,275 4,198 4,829 5,947 7,029 7,752 - Net exports 61 44 68 146 173 99 Net available 3,214 4,154 4,761 5,801 6,856 7,653 - Losses 468 547 621 771 984 1,071 Net consumption 2,746 3,607 4,140 5,030 5,872 6,582 Industry 1,985 2,624 2,997 3,667 4,094 4,521 of which: Ponwer-irtpnsivp. industries -7 376 650 817 1,143 1,344 1,381 Households 395 514 643 832 1,142 1,348 Rest 366 469 500 531 636 713 y Electro-chemical and electro-metallurgical industries. M lMunicipal Liighting and services; community facilities, commerciai sector, etc. Source: Yugoslav Electricity Union. TABLE 6 Table 6 COST OF POwUE BY bYSTEM AYD T1iYPE UF PLANT 1959 In dinars/kWh Yugoslavia North-Western Central Eastern as a System System System whole Average production costs for Hydro plants 2.27 2.32 3.99 2.68 Average production costs for Thermal plants 10.63 8.44 9.39 9.69 Average production costs for all plants 5.31 3.68 6.54 5.12 Average transmission and distribution costs 3.93 5 15 6iL L4 93 Average total eosts 9.98 9=90 13.91 11-03 Source: Federal Electricity Union. r?'A DT t' Fl Table 7 MTETRIBUTION OF TGTAL INlCOME - FOR TWO SELECTED ELi4CTRIC P01,tR tITL,,PRISES 1959 Zvornik (Hvdro) Kolubara (Thermal) Tnt-al reeints 769 2,336 Operating expenses 445 1,660 Fuel Other materials 100 128 Insurance 32 48 Wages and social insurance, etc. 35 143 Depreciation 278 371 Gross income 324 676 Interest 121 215 Taxes 146 302 Tax on capital 56 8 Tex on income 89 290 Other taxes 1 4 Net income 57 159 Supplementary wages 21 111 Retained income 36 48 Data on plants Value of plant 13,106 9,090 Capacity in MI 90 64 Year built 1955-57 1957 Production in millions of k'W'h 386 382 Sales in million kWvJh 384 342 i)plovees 143 584 Average total cost of prod. 2 dinars/kWh 6.8 dinars/k'Wsh Return on investment (before taxes 2.5% 7.5% a n . Federal Electrico Ut i Source: Federal iaectricity Union. TaLble 8 PROJECTED DEMP.ND AND SUPPLY OF ELECTRIC :POWEIR ____ ___._ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ (In millions of Kwh) 1960 1961 1962 1'63 196.4 1965 1966 Estimated. Demand2/ 7,880 9,0)20 1O0,3:30 11,860 :13,700 15,720 17,6,40 Net Production Avre. Year 8,13 7 9,916 11,543 13,039 14,521 16,572 18,1.63 Net Production Dry Year 7,115 8,839 :10,223 11,534 12,847 14,527 15,530 Deficit in Dry Year 765; :181 107 326 853 1,193 2,1.10 Planned Reductions in Selected Ind.ustries2/ 320 340 350 380 430 490 5100 l/ Excluding own production of power plants and exports. 2/ Represents the consizaption of selected power-intensive industries which would be curtailed aLs necessary undcer cdry year conditions. Source: Federal Electricity Union. Table 9 PR00RAM QFS]i 1TPNTS IN HYDRO PLANTS NOW UNDER CONST (In millions of dinars) Capacity Plant in MW 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1.965 1966 Total Kokin Brcd 121 .2,200 700 500 184 - - - 3,584 Bajina BELSta 240 I, 000 5,(000 5,088 4,820 4,820 2,526 1,662 24,916 Split I 216 6,(000 4,869 ;Z,048 - - - - 12 ,917il Senj 216 :1,000 4,678 5,o00 4,724 3,000 1,086 - 19,488 Ozbalt 60 ;2,50() 3,0(95 694 - - - 6,289 Trebisnjica 216 3,0(C) 5,000 7,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 208 33,208 Globc cica 424.6 ;2,000 2,500 2,00) 1,000 761 - - 8,261 Perucica II 144 1,70() 3,000 2,050 1,195 - _ _ ,945 Peruca 40 218 - - - - - 218 Mariborski Ot;ok 16,.8 224- - - - -- - 224 TOVLL 1,412.4 19,842 28,842 24 ,380 18,923 14,581 8,612 1,870 117,050 '/ The totals and the tranches mnay be changed depending on the volume of construction in particular years and on the price in -the market. Source: Federal Electricity Union. Table 10 PROGRAM OF INVESTITTNTS IN THERMAL PL.NTS NOW UNDER CONSTRUCTIONI/ _ millIons of d 1r.) Capacity Plant in MW 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 lotal KPolubara II 655 ;2,500 1,000 632 421 -- 4.,553 Iolubara III .32 :1,00X 337 300 _ _ 1,637' Kakarnj I: 164 2,200 929 352 - _ 3,481 Sostan; :[I 75 2,500 1,015 871 800 - 5,186 TO Zagreb 164 2,70D 3,696 450 430 -- 7,276 TO Beograd 164 500 3,000 4,628 1,697 _. 9,825 hosovo I 65 2,500 3,000 1,0CO 577 -- 7,077, Kosovo II 125 300 3,441 6,805 3,800 853 15 ,199 Lukavac 164 1,000 4,500 3,coo 922 - 9,422 Brestanica 12.5 600 502 ] 102 TOTAL 630.5 15,800 21,420 18,038 8,647 853 64,758 :i/ The tota:ls and the t:ranches zmay be c'hanged depending on the volume cif construction in particular years and on the prices in the market. Source: Federal Electricity Union. Table 11 TOTAL INVESThENTS IN ELECTRIC,P0ER __960-1966 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _LI_ miii ons o:e dinarsL Capacity Plant in iVW 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1'966 Total Hiydro under construction 1,412.4 19,842 28,842 24,380 18,923 14,,581 83,612 1,870 117,050 Thermal uader construction 630.5 15,800 21,420 18,038 8,647 853 - - 64,758 Transmission 8,224 6,800 918 - . _ _ 15,942 Total 2,042.9 43,866 5,7,062 43,336 27,5,70 15,,434 8,361;2 1,870 197,750 New Projectsl/ 1U,100 Total 341,750 … 1/ Estimate of investments to be made u-,!ino 196C-1 "6 fola construction of' new generating capacity *to be completed after 1966. Projects not yet designated but a -r- iiairary estimrate suggests 55% may be !hydro and 45o thermal. Source: Federal Electricity Union. APPENDIX I STATF.MENT OF CONDITIONS UNDER WHICH YUGOSLAV INVESTIENT BANK WILL RECEIVE AIZ EVALUATE APPLICATIONS FOR LOANS FOR ELECTRIC POWER PRODUCTION In accordance with Article 21 of the Decree on Investment Loans/ Uff cial - .aet.le flrPflRY nu, ~cnJe, ..r "OfficiaI GazeIle rrn., No.31/56, 22/58 and 25/59, upon approval given by the FedereLl State Secretariat for Financial Affairs, the Yugoslav Investment BeLnk invites tenders for the XLIII COETITMrvE BIDDING for granting investment loans out of the General Investment Fund for construction of electric power generating capacities includ- ing the necessary transmitting and trans- forming facilities 1. The Yugoslav Investment Bank shall grant under this competitive bidding out of the General Investment Fund loans for the construction of electric power generating capacities, including the necessary trans- mitting and transforming facilities for 110 KV and higher. 2. In this bidding may participate political subdivisions and unions of electricity enterprises, as well as other economic organi- zations. 3. Loans under this competitive bidding shall be granted under the condition that the loan requested and the funds of the borrower, and those of his guarantor! will secure the complete construction of the project for which the loan has been requested. 4. The borrower is under duty to participate in investment costs also with his own funds. and with his guarantor's funds with a percentage of the estimated value of investment to be subsequently determined. 5. The borrower is under duty to deposit a 5% guaranty amount according to repmlations in foree at the time of issuing the decision granting the loan. 6. Priority for obtaining loans under this competitive bidding shnll be given to the borrowers: a) +)I +the I io.s4 3trm +n.-vnert r+at p erno k1.fh of anrnio p duction of electric power; b) who are in a position to supply the largest possible par+ of the z.=na pouction duin the pr i ods kJJ U .L ULIqJ..J CLUJIUM, k.L UUI. A~JILUrJ. .. ULte between January 1 and February 28, and between July 15 ar,d 'Septuem-uer 1:5:, APPENDIX I Page 2 c) with the lowest ex-plant selling nrice ner kWh: d) who. for the transDort of the energy generated to the consuming center, request the lowest new investment funds nAr kWh generated, whereby thA highAst total energv losses during transport and including transformation up to the point of deliverv to the 110 kV line may not exceed 8%; e) whose thermal plants use as fuel the highest percentage with the lowest cost per 1,000 kcal delivered to the +1,a.rfla vA o,+ e+rvs ,rorl.A V-V S14U -^ V - JV w V'L t) who for the supply of iuel p to t thermal plan.t storage yard require the lowest amount of total new Vir.vest-Uentr L LLDA 1 4W L. fli D- --l- 1-- -fi .1- ill LI) who offer a ligher participatlioin W-Lth UrL4tel1 thWei I. UrlU. The Bank can limit the maximum of total investment, and the investment out of the loan requested per unit of product, in excess of which the loan may not be granted. 7. Loans under this competitive bidding shall bear 2% interest annually, it being provided that the repayment date may not be longer than 40 years for hydro plants, and 25 years for thernal plants. 8. Any borrowers who wish to participate in this competitive bidding must submit.not later than Julv 30. 1960, their application to the Bank with the data stating the following: a) the type of the electric power project, and the situation, includina the results and origin of investigations conducted, as well as data on the drafting of the design; b) the estimated installed capacity of the power plant and thA exnlanation therAfor; G) the amou]nt of total annuanl production of energy in the plant at the generator; d) the amount of energy production which will be produced withir the period of one year, especially in the period between January 1 and February 28 and between July 15 and supply; APMWnTTY T Page 3 e)I +1,he molTrnVI ottl e^c+wtr+ctintco+s for the ,rlnn project. Data should be given by projects and within the proiects, I..;e 4 f works(osrc nwok,eupet imported and domestic, and other); f) the sale price of electric energy ex-plant in terms of g) Une reU----- n ubuerL f hl oCOurs lE Ul uf1 tle plant wit hinr a year (give a statement); h) the amounts required for new investments for transport of the electric energy generated to the consuming center up to the delivery of the energy to the 110 kV lines and higher. Describe in detail the character and the role of the plant within the power system, especially in respect to the consumption. To this should be added a description of the role of the existing power lines and transformer stations and an analysis of the possible need for the erection of new transmission lines; i) the type, calorific value and quality of coal, as well as the name of the mine from which coal will be supplied to the thermal plant. If waste coal is used, it is required to state it and to give the ratio. Give the estimate of fuel for 1,000 kcal, delivered to plant's storage; j) the amount of new investment required for securing the supply of the plant with the planned quantity of fuel, including investment for transport up to the plant's storage. In addition, data should be furnished on the stocks of coal at the disposal of the plant and for what number of years such stocks will be available. If new investments for coal supply facilities are required, the amount of funds needed should be stated. For all the above stated data, an analysis of the method of obtaining such data should be furnished as well as a layout of the thermal plant. 9. The application for the investment loan should include all data set forth in Article 16 of the Decree on investment loans, such ap- plication being submitted in the prescribed Bank's forms. 10. The borrower shall submit with his application a fully drafted investment program as provided In Article 17. naragranh 1 and Article 15. paragraph 1 of the Decree on investment loans. APPENDIX I Page 4 Fovr hwiroelectric plants, the production possibilities shrn7ld be stated by months, that is data should be given for an average and medi.-. -ouht yes-. The production of thermnIl pnts, sllndiA hb state on a 6,300 working hours per annum basis with the allowed deviation kWh on in-plant generator. In addition, for each new plant technical and economic data shol d be given relating to the construction of the transmission network as well as data relating to losses due to trans- mlsol-n oJ e e c ri .gy a.The speifcaton forthe genera.lC p-lan ofL Vb._UildSr' work sh l be worked out by all items of building, handicraft and installation works, CT,.LI. - Sg- 4 - siiuow1ng how ±nu.Lv±dusla wjounlt of worki ha-ve wan Uedetri±LLLJd. The estl±- mate of costs should be shown by all specification items on the basis of prevailing prices. Specifications and the estimate worked o-ut on the basis of rough purameters shall not be accepted. As regards building works, instead of tne general plan, tne approved main design may be submitted. The specification of equipment should include the statement of principaI eharacteristics, as well as the statement of prices for eacn equipment item (separately for both imported and domestic equipment) and of assembly works. 11. Applications under this competitive bidding are required to draw up and to work out in detail a schedule of preparatory works with speci- fications and an estimate, as well as a time schedule of commitment of the funds required for the carrying out of the schedule of construction. 12. The borrower is required to submit,with his application to the Bank, a statement on the availability of funds for the deposit of the guaranty amount and of funds for participation in investment costs, if such funds are provided by the political subdivision. 13. The Bank may make th6 granting of the loan, dependent on the Cr11n7-nn+.'1- nff +A.h C2141.M. 1,i1-A4i nnrl;r.e rvv on +hO Mrinrnn+.!fr ?f' flia tini n of electricity enterprises, if the latter had not made a request for 14. The loan application with the necessary documentation shall be submitted in four copies to the nearest branch office of the Yugoslav Investment Bank. 15. For the filing of the definitive loan application, including a.L. tihe duulcunt.at.ion prescributc, b1wo udabe Lave ueen ±.LAiU; D1ceUmLr 15, 1960 and April 15, 1961. APPEWNTX I Page 5 1t6. If up to the date of approval of the :an In 'avor of indi= vidual participants in the competitive bidding iaw regulations should be issued in the field of power economy, the provi.ions of such regulations, if they should affect the bidding, shall be binding on the participants in the bidding. THE YUGOSLAV INVESTMENT BANK Head Office General Manager Chairman A. Papic of the Board of Directors Hasan Brkic A. u, s . r orInJ R I IrAl , JeJa , MrrEc vseteHUNGARY >~~~~~~j i e RUMiANIA X |/ i--- ; t 0 t < t [~~~~~~~~~~~A N- . ...... .L - ......-_ t 9& \-- : "''">LuEo ': S Iti'"'..'-''.'.' MA AStAj -- --- , J d 6 , t:P,.k0CA: ( F i ffULOARIA YUGO SLAVT G A EXISTING UNDER CONSTR. PROPOSED 1V , : i . .._) 2 20 KVLI NES----,5tj _ I]IOXKVLINES RA r_, HYDRO PLANTS S , \ _ SK tE_ THERMAL PLANTS A J NSORTHWESIERN SfSTEM 2ONE I CEMTRAI, SYSTEM ZONETi II 77-7 FASTFR%S SYSTEV. ZONEI m AL A\ _N__ - _| 9 20 .0 so - 50 MILES 0 t0 40 o *0 KILOMETORS JULY 1960 IBRD 712