76410 rev For Official Use Only CASCR Review Independent Evaluation Group 1. CAS Data Country: India CAS Year: FY09 CAS Period: FY09 – FY12 CASCR Review Period: FY09 – FY12 Date of this review: 3/28/2013 2. Executive Summary i. This review examines the implementation of the FY09 India Country Strategy (CAS) and the Country Strategy Progress Report (CASPR) of FY11, and assesses the Country Strategy Completion Report (CASCR). The strategy was jointly implemented by IBRD, IDA and IFC; this review covers the joint program of the three institutions. ii. The main objective of the CAS was to assist India to achieve the goals of the Eleventh Five Year Plan: a country free of poverty and exclusion. The CAS objectives were organized under three pillars: (i) achieving rapid, inclusive growth; (ii) ensuring development is sustainable; and, (iii) increasing the effectiveness of service delivery. A cross-cutting focus was to achieve effective public spending and results. IFC strategy focused on improving inclusion, managing the impact of climate change, and promoting regional integration. In response to the Government’s request, the CAS committed to focus on the low-income states. iii. IEG rates the overall outcome of WBG support as moderately satisfactory, below the CASCR rating of satisfactory. The CAS program pursued a broad range of objectives that were ambitious and included areas where engagement was nascent. While good progress was achieved on multiple fronts, there was slow and partial progress in some important areas. iv. The WBG’s work on inclusive growth delivered on its main commitments and contributed to the outstanding national outcomes through catalytic effects in some areas such as community development in rural areas. Good progress was achieved in the power sector as reflected in improved access and strengthened institutions, as well as in the education and rural water and sanitation sectors, where the WB maintained a long-term engagement. The WBG’s work on improving agricultural productivity contributed to the good national outcomes, although engagement with the LISs on agriculture was limited while work in agribusiness was just starting. Progress was also made in the transport sector. The WBG scaled up its microfinance program and the transfer of resources to India during the crisis, but did not meet the policy objectives in the financial sector. The WBG’s work on skills development produced localized results, but little impact on addressing skill shortages more broadly. Supported by ample AAA, a substantive program emerged to address environmental and climate change issues, although concrete results were still scarce. v. On the other hand, the delivery of results was below expectation in a number of areas: the limited progress in urban development called for a more integrative approach; the shortfalls in the PPP program necessitated careful reflections on and adjustments to the WBG’s commitments in areas where fiduciary requirements could delay portfolio implementation; disappointing achievements in water management and institutions suggests a weak understanding of the sector dynamics; the mixed results in the health sector required greater attention to linking local and national support; and the lack of serious turnaround in governance at the central and local levels pointed to the need for continued long-term efforts. There was weak support in the areas of disaster management, little engagement with the LISs on structural reforms to accelerate growth, CPSCR Reviewed by: Peer Reviewed by: CASCR Review Coordinator Luis Alvaro Sanchez Marcelo Selowsky Consultant, IEGCC Consultant, IEGCC Xiaolun Sun Senior Evaluation Officer, Surajit Goswami, Xiaolun Sun IEGCC Consultant, IEGCC Senior Evaluation Officer, IEGCC For Official Use Only CASCR Review 2 Independent Evaluation Group and a fragmented program to address child malnutrition, which was arguably the weakest element of the WB assistance strategy given the severity of the problem. vi. IEG concurs with the lessons drawn by the CASCR. However, it wishes to underscore that the lack of a well-specified results chain linking the WBG interventions with CAS objectives, and weak M&E in program implementation seriously constrains the learning process. It prevents the identification of the reasons for which the WBG succeeded or failed in achieving the CAS objectives, and of the potential catalytic impact that the WBG may have, which is particularly important when the CAS resources, financial and intellectual, are small in relation to the development challenges and the own resources of the country. 3. Assessment of WBG Strategy Overview of CAS Relevance: Country Context: 1. The 2008 global economic crisis hit India as the CAS period began. The authorities adopted a policy mix combining measures to curb inflation (especially monetary restraint) with fiscal stimulus. After a drop from 9.6% in 2007/08 to 6.8% in 2008/09, GDP growth accelerated to 8.4% in 2009/10 and 2010/11, before slowing down to 6.5% in 2011/12. Although this performance fell below the Government’s target of 9% annual growth over this period, it remained one of the highest in the world. Nevertheless, concerns over structural fiscal and external positions, further slow-down over the medium term, and the risks of higher inflation (which hovered around 10% during the CAS period) led to a change of outlook from stable by S&P and Fitch (Moody’s maintained its stable rating). Sustained economic growth over the past decade contributed to a rapid fall of the official poverty rate from 37.2% in 2004 to 29.8% in 2010, although significant gaps remain in terms of gender, regional, and rural-urban disparities, while the country will likely miss some MDG goals, especially those related to health and malnutrition. Global indicators of competitiveness and governance also remained unchanged. The ruling United Progressive Alliance coalition led by the Indian National Congress remained in power after the national elections in 2009; recent legislative elections at the state level, on the other hand, indicate a delicate balance of power which may impact the Government's ability to implement reforms. 2. The vision of India’s Eleventh Five Year Plan (11th FYP, 2007-12) was to maintain rapid economic growth (targeted at 9% per annum) while making substantial gains in inclusiveness. The 11th FYP included several inter-related components: rapid growth that reduces poverty and creates employment opportunities; access to essential services in health and education especially for the poor; equality of opportunity; empowerment through education and skill development; employment opportunities underpinned by the National Rural Employment Guarantee; environmental sustainability; recognition of women’s agency; and good governance. A series of detailed sector plans was developed to scale up the efforts to reduce poverty and social exclusion, including 13 “Flagship Development Programs” on which almost $150 billion was spent during the Plan period. Objectives of the WBG Strategy: 3. The main objective of the CAS was to assist India to achieve the goals of the 11th FYP: a country free of poverty and exclusion. The CAS objectives were organized under three pillars: (i) achieving rapid, inclusive growth; (ii) ensuring development is sustainable; and, (iii) increasing the effectiveness of service delivery. A cross-cutting focus was to achieve effective public spending and results. IFC strategy focused on improving inclusion, managing the impact of climate change, and promoting regional integration. In response to the Government’s request, the CAS committed to focus on the low-income states (LISs). The CAS targeted 30% of new WB lending to LISs and Special Category States (in mountainous and border regions); increasing LIS engagement was also an IFC priority. The CASPR reconfirmed the relevance of these objectives, but revised the results framework. For Official Use Only CASCR Review 3 Independent Evaluation Group The text of the CAS identified the main objectives to be achieved by the WBG during the CAS period, but did not discuss how the WBG interventions would help achieve those objectives. Relevance of the WBG Strategy: 4. Congruence with Country Context and Country Program . The CAS objectives were relevant to the country’s goals of maintaining rapid growth, reducing poverty and inequality, improving infrastructure, addressing skills shortage, and accelerating agricultural growth. They addressed these challenges in a way that was consistent with the 11th FYP. Different approaches were used at the state and central levels and in states at different development levels, reflecting the demands and realities on the ground. 5. Relevance of Design. There were some limitations in the design of the CAS program. In spite of selectivity being a key concern, partly at the recognition that previous strategies were not selective enough, the CAS remained diffused. It would have benefited from a stronger focus on what the authorities requested from the WB during the CAS discussions (i.e., low income states and agriculture; the MDGs; and infrastructure investments, including supporting the Government’s capacities to design and manage PPPs). Despite the stated emphasis on LISs, the CAS did not prioritize issues of economic growth in LISs. The analytical program focused on a small number of multi-year, cross-sectoral studies on poverty, social exclusion, urbanization and environment, but could have addressed more forcefully the growth constraints in LISs or agriculture. In some areas, such as nutrition, the proposed interventions were too weak to bring about the desired outcomes. The CASPR retained the structure of the CAS and did not address these shortcomings. In addition, although the CAS called for stronger collaboration between the WB and IFC, it didn’t elaborate on how this cooperation was to take place in delivering specific outcomes. The first two focus areas of the IFC strategy broadly coincided with the CAS objectives under Pillars I and II, but its third focus area on global integration differed radically from Pillar III of the CAS. Neither the CAS nor the CASPR provided any quantitative plans for IFC activities. 6. Strength of the Results Framework. There were serious deficiencies in the CAS results framework. Although the results matrix summarized the WBG interventions under each pillar and cluster, there was no clear results chain linking specific interventions to the desired outcomes to higher level country goals. The outcomes were formulated in a very unbalanced manner across the program, with some covering a large number of issues (e.g., infrastructure, which included power, roads, railways, urban transport, asset management and PPP all as one single outcome), some were vague in what exactly would be achieved (e.g., “help develop appropriate approaches to land market reform”), while others referring to incipient engagements (e.g., environment and climate change). A large number of indicators were proposed, but many were vaguely defined (e.g., “increased”, “strengthened”) and most lacked baselines and/or targets. Some indicators were not tracked (e.g., “road network in fair/better condition”). In most cases, the outcomes and the relevant indicators designed to measure progress toward these outcomes were not clearly identified, making it difficult to track and assess results. Finally, IFC’s contribution was not adequately captured, which may have been a consequence of the vagueness of the proposed IFC program. For example, although IFC has a major program on improving access to finance in the rural areas, the outcome indicators referred specifically to WB-supported livelihood projects. 7. Risk Identification and Mitigation. The CAS highlighted several risks: impact of global financial crisis, political risks, institutional weaknesses including unclear policies and inadequate attention to results within the implementation agencies, and misuse of public resources. No particular mitigation measures were proposed for dealing with the first two risks (political risks were considered low), while the risks associated with increasing lending in lower capacity LISs would be counterbalanced by a few large investments in low-risk sectors or through repeater financing and the governance risks would be dealt with through close collaboration with counterparts on M&E frameworks, ring-fencing WB projects, enhancing supervision, and strengthening country systems. The CASPR reiterated these risks, but pointed out that the CAS had not fully anticipated the global financial crisis and called for continued flexibility that was already embedded in the CAS. It reconfirmed the governance constraints and the For Official Use Only CASCR Review 4 Independent Evaluation Group risks related to the changing WB portfolio toward large, transformative projects, and called for continued attention to support the institutional strengthening measures proposed in the CAS. As direct lending to LISs fell far below the CAS target, the risks related to capacity constraints in LISs did not materialize in the sense of negatively impacting WB portfolio quality, but did contribute to the WB failing to meet the LIS lending target. The move to large transformational projects was one of the factors behind the fall in the disbursement ratios, as noted in the CASCR. The weak CAS results framework, which was not improved significantly in the CASPR, points to limited progress in improving M&E at the CAS program level even though efforts have been made project-level M&E at project. The large number of fraud and corruption complaints and substantiated cases indicate partial success in mitigating governance risks. Overview of CAS/CPS Implementation: Lending and Investments: 8. At the beginning of the CAS period, 58 projects were under implementation. During the CAS period, 63 new projects were approved, with both IDA and IBRD commitments reaching $19 billion, doubling the amount foreseen in the CAS. This was mainly driven by requests from the authorities for financial support after the 2008 global crisis, as well as the emergence of new areas of engagement linked to the Government’s initiatives. The recently achieved IBRD status facilitated the increase, but the single borrower limit was increased twice and the Government has agreed to purchase up to US$4.3 billion in IBRD Special Private Placement Bonds. The discrepancy between the planned and the approved projects is considerable, but reasonable. While some of the programmed projects were dropped, it was the increased resources available that allowed for new projects to be added. Around 60% of the portfolio was for transport, energy and rural development. The average age of the projects is 3.5 years, and only 30% of the existing commitments have been disbursed. Portfolio size increased from 60 in FY08 to 78 at the end of October 2012. Direct commitments to LISs amounted to 9% of the total, below the 30% target, although the CASCR reports that total new lending to LISs reached 27% when indirect support to national programs targeting LISs is included. 9. Portfolio performance was good, with the share of project and commitments at risk comparing favorably with regional and WB peers. The Detailed Implementation Review (DIR) of 5 health sector operations (undertaken during the previous CAS period) led to greater efforts to improve governance within project implementing agencies. The disbursement ratio, however, fell from 18.3 to 11% during the same time period. This was due to higher lending volume (which reduced the average maturity of the projects), delays in implementation, as well as increased complexity of operations that seek to incorporate new initiatives, according the CASCR. IEG validated the ICRs of 20 projects that were closed during the CAS period and rated 85% of them as satisfactory or moderately satisfactory for achieving development outcomes. This compares favorably with the South Asian (71%) and world (70%) averages. In 80% of these projects, IEG rated the risk to development outcome as moderate or lower, considerably better than South Asian (47%) and the world (54%) averages. 10. During the CAS period, IFC invested $2.9 billion of own funds (7% more than the previous CAS period) in 123 new projects and continued to implement 139 projects initiated earlier. Of these 262 projects 22% of the commitments were to LISs. At the end of FY12, 208 projects remained active. IFC investment exposure in India stopped growing after 2010 and reached a plateau below US$4 billion. Nevertheless, India remains IFC’s largest single-country exposure with an economic capital consumption of 6.7% of IFC’s Total Resource Available. The composition of IFC investment shifted markedly during CAS implementation, with infrastructure investments shrinking to 18% while financial market investments grew to account for over half of new commitments. The product structure of IFC activities also evolved, with equity dropping to below a third of IFC commitments in the second half of the CAS period. 11. IEG reviewed 14 Expanded Project Supervision Reports and 4 Project Evaluation Summary at project completion. In 10 of these projects, the development outcomes were rated as highly satisfactory For Official Use Only CASCR Review 5 Independent Evaluation Group (1), satisfactory (6), and moderately satisfactory (3); the remaining 8 projects had either moderately unsatisfactory (5) or unsatisfactory (2) outcomes, or were not rated on development outcomes. At 56%, the success rate of IFC’s interventions in achieving development results was below that of the previous CAS period (64%) even though IFC’s portfolio was very healthy with a Non-Performing Loan ratio of 1.2% of total portfolio as of June 2012. Analytic and Advisory Activities and Services 12. WB delivered 49 Economic and Sector Work (ESW) and 47 Technical Assistance (TA) tasks during the CAS period. A good share of analytical work supported the preparation of the emerging portfolio in environment and climate change, skills, social protection, higher education, and urban development, but gaps existed in important engagement areas such as agriculture, nutrition, and constraints to growth in lagging states. The AAA program was fairly demand-driven, with a third delivered in the form of policy notes. It was also flexible, with 30% and 60% of the ESW and TA, respectively, departing from the original design. Non-lending TA (NLTA) was utilized to deliver capacity building to the central and the state governments, some in collaboration with development partners. Trust Funds (TF), totaling $214 million during the CAS period, financed 55% of the NTLA and complemented WB lending operations (notably in sustainable development, sanitation and the health sector). Although key TF interventions were well integrated into the CAS program, the CASCR notes that while the resources and partnership strengthened the WB program, the high level of dependence on TFs posed a risk for continuity. 13. IFC’s advisory portfolio grew 3-fold from $15.7 million at the end of FY08 to $45.1 million by end of June 2012 and is now one of the largest for IFC. A total of 88 advisory projects were active during the CAS period, of which 34 had been approved before FY09. By the end of FY12, 28 projects had been closed and 6 were put on hold, leaving a sizeable portfolio of 54 projects for the next CAS period. IFC advisory activity focused on public-private partnership (PPP) mandates (12 projects), clean energy and related finance (10), farmer and SME training (9), and health, gender and education (9). The share of IFC advisory services to LISs rose from 21% in FY09 to 63% in FY12. IEG reviewed the PCRs of 12 projects that were closed during the CAS period, and rated the development effectiveness to be satisfactory in 3 projects, mostly satisfactory in 4, mostly unsatisfactory in another 4, and unsatisfactory in the remaining one. Partnerships and Development Partner Coordination 14. DFID and ADB were the most frequent partners. An important area of collaboration was capacity strengthening in the LISs. The partnership was particularly active in Bihar and Orissa and produced positive results. The ADB and WB collaborated in other sectors including finance, power, railways, and roads under the Government’s guidance. The CASCR provides few details on partnership coordination. Safeguards and Fiduciary Issues 15. During the CAS period, three cases were brought before the Inspection Panel. In one case (the Mumbai Urban Transport Project), the WB worked closely with the requesters and the borrower to resolve the issues that arose when the Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority demolished the requesters’ properties. In the other two cases (Madhya Pradesh Water Sector Restructuring Project and Improving Rural Livelihoods through Carbon Sequestration Project), the WB believed that the alleged negative impacts were not a result of the WB’s projects, or of serious violation of WB operational policies or procedures. 16. In the period FY-09-FY12, INT recorded more than 211 allegations of fraud and corruption, and found sufficient basis to open 57 cases. Of these, 20 were substantiated, resulting in the following actions: debarred (7), referred (1), sanction process (10), dealt with by Region (1), and information only (1). The others were either found to be unsubstantiated (16), unfounded (3), referred (9), low priority (1), information only (5), or still active (not closed) (3). For Official Use Only CASCR Review 6 Independent Evaluation Group Overview of Achievement by Objective: Pillar I: Achieving Rapid, Inclusive Growth 17. Under this pillar, the WBG pursued a broad range of objectives that were organized into three clusters: (i) making growth inclusive; (ii) removing structural constraints to economic growth; and (iii) supporting sound macro and financial management and structural reform. Cluster A: Making Growth Inclusive 18. Improved economic wellbeing and opportunities for sustained income and employment in rural areas, particularly for poor households, in areas covered by WB-supported livelihoods projects. India made important strides towards greater inclusiveness. In addition to the acceleration of overall poverty reduction, the gaps in growth rates across states narrowed, real consumption and real wages in rural areas grew by 3.4% and 6.8%, respectively, between 2004/05 and 2011/12, and targeted assistance to vulnerable groups increased eightfold without a major increase in the total outlays. Since 2000, several WB livelihood operations focused on helping India develop a systemic approach to rural poverty, with an emphasis on community organizations, self-empowerment and gender issues. During the CAS period, the WB expanded this approach to more states and launched the National Rural Livelihoods Program (FY12) to support better coordination between central government and four participating states. Lessons from the earlier operations were fed into the Government’s National Rural Livelihoods Mission, one of the 13 Flagship Programs under the 11th FYP. The CASCR reports that the number of beneficiaries (95% of whom were women) grew from a baseline of 8 million to over 30 million, and the incomes and opportunities improved for the poor in project areas. IFC invested and advised on empowering communities with a view to redressing gender imbalances. For instance, an IFC training program had highly successful development outcomes in assisting a Gujarat unit of the Self Employed Women Association (SEWA) to market their products in India and abroad. 19. Sustained improvements in road connectivity in areas covered by WB-supported rural roads projects. According to the official statistics, road connectivity increased during the 11th FYP, although one-quarter of the rural settlements still lacked access to an all-weather road. There is no information on the CAS target of % of rural road network in fair or better condition, as road management systems were established in only three participating states to track road conditions. The contribution of the WB to rural roads came through the livelihood projects and several state roads projects which were progressing well according to staff assessment. The WB’s interventions fed into the design of the PMGSY, a national scheme advancing the connectivity of the rural population, which is also supported by the WB’s PMGSY Rural Roads Project (FY12). 20. Improved access to modern energy (electricity) by the rural population . Overall access to electricity in the country improved: the CASCR reports that more than 43 million individuals in 9.7 million households received new electricity access through the RGGVY (rural electrification program) all over India during the 11th FYP. The WB program did not finance expanding electricity coverage to rural areas; it contributed, though, to expanding transmission capacity. IFC invested in a number of power sector projects that benefited the targeted population. The solar energy project with Azure Power provided electricity to 32 villages and 20,000 people in the Amritsar District of Punjab; connecting a power plant in Gujarat to the state power grid brought electricity to over 100,000 people in Gujarat's villages; investment in Husk Power helped develop power generation through small rice husk based biomass in rural off-grid villages in Bihar and neighboring LISs, with about 25,000 villages identified as feasible sites within the rice belt. Overall, however, IFC power sector interventions were limited in LISs. 21. Greater access by poor households to the formal financial system. The development of microfinance in India faced recurrent challenges as exemplified by the collapse of private microfinance in Andra Pradesh in 2010. At the national level, although the events in 2010 led to a temporary contraction of micro financing, it recovered quickly. Nevertheless, only one in six households has access to financial services in rural areas. The CASCR reports that a modified National Agricultural Insurance Scheme benefited 340,000 farmers in 2010, although there was no baseline or target to assess the extent to which this represented progress. The WBG, partly in response to the 2010 events, promoted For Official Use Only CASCR Review 7 Independent Evaluation Group borrowers’ financial literacy and awareness and credit bureau as a way to create a favorable environment for further development of private microfinance institutions (MFIs). Funds provided by the WB’s Scaling-up Sustainable and Responsible Microfinance Project (FY10) reached over 500,000 clients, predominantly women and 84% in underserved areas, and leveraged $3 billion from partner institutions to underserved clients. The operation for strengthening Rural Credit Cooperatives (FY08), although slow-paced, was well targeted to small and marginal farmers and is posting mixed progress in recovery rates and profitability. The rural livelihood projects also helped expand credit access with success. 22. IFC endeavored to introduce and encourage innovative Banking products in India. It helped develop the subordinated debt market and supported India’s largest private commercial bank (ICICI Bank) to grow in areas of rural banking, microfinance, insurance and international banking, as well as to meet Basel II requirements. According to the CASCR, IFC’s investments helped increase the number of MFI clients from 0.4 million in FY09 to 19.7 million in FY11. IFC also provided advisory services to MFIs to reach underserved rural markets and build capacities for responsible finance, linking MFIs to credit bureaus, and risk management for MFIs. In addition, IFC’s work led to the creation of national Responsible Finance Forum. The microcredit crisis in 2010 held back some innovative initiatives from IFC; and some initiatives to stabilize the financial system through formal banking failed to bring about satisfactory outcomes, partly due to poor designs. 23. Better, more widely used data on poverty and growth and enhanced understanding of social exclusion. The CASCR does not provide data bearing directly on the outcome indicators (better reporting and disclosure of data and standards, and better integration of gender issues in AAA and operations). It is not clear whether poverty and growth data were more widely used than before. On the other hand, flagship AAA reports on poverty, social exclusion, and social protection supported a wider and better-informed policy dialogue. The Statistical Strengthening Loan DPL (FY10), however, failed to deliver on its expectations. In 2009, IFC Advisory implemented a Sub-national Doing Business in India project, which fed into a number of peer-to-peer learning events including some hosted by Government to raise awareness, resulted in developing state level investment climate programs such as Bihar Tax Simplification and Rajasthan Knowledge Partnership focusing on business regulation reforms.. Cluster B: Removing Structural Constraints to Growth B1 - Bridging the infrastructure gap 24. Expanding and improving the quality of infrastructure service delivery, including through PPPs. Strengthened institutional capacities in the power sector, with deployment of innovative PPP business models (moved from Pillar II, Cluster B). The Government followed through on the priority it assigned to addressing critical bottlenecks in electricity and transport, and began to focus on urban development. Achievements in electricity included expanding the national generating capacity, improving transmission through expansion and repair that led to expanded market and greater cross- state interchange of electricity, and improving system performance and strengthening the governance and financial sustainability of power companies. Nevertheless, 36% of the population (45% of rural households) still lives without access to electricity, while the quality of power supply varies considerably across the country. The July 2012 blackout affected half of Indian population, pointing to weak inter- regional power transmission corridors and overloading of the main lines. In transportation, beyond the progress made in rural roads, improvement in the country’s main road arteries contributed to better road conditions and reduced travel time and costs, and the Dedicated Freight Corridor initiative launched under the 11th FYP represented a transformational shift in India’s rail management. Major urban centers began to invest in mass transport. Better maintenance of infrastructure assets was achieved through the introduction of performance-based contracts, greater focus on funding provisions and road safety, and strengthened governance. The Government made a major effort in involving the private sector through PPPs across the board. As of 31 March 2012, 390 PPPs had been approved and India was a recipient of PPP investment since 2006 according to WB data. These advances notwithstanding, the rapid growth in demand has meant a continued deficit in infrastructure. For Official Use Only CASCR Review 8 Independent Evaluation Group 25. The WB contributed to expanding infrastructure through various projects in power, roads, railways and urban development. The CASCR reports that 45% of new WBG commitments (nearly $7 billion) went to infrastructure, more than doubling the infrastructure commitments during the previous CAS period. IFC invested $676 million in infrastructure over the CAS period, which was a little more than half of the infrastructure investments in the previous CAS period. This financing was small compared to the scale of the public investment that reached 7 percent of GDP during this period. 26. The highlight of WB projects in the power sector was the POWERGRID III. IV, V series (FY01, FY04, FY10), which helped strengthen the electricity transmission system, as well as the technical and administrative capacity of POWERGRID, which has become one of the best transmission utilities in the world and made the transition from government-guaranteed IBRD lending to an IFC syndicated loan. IFC invested $309 million (10% total commitment) in private sector power generation, transmission, and distribution in 19 projects that posted good progress in achieving development effectiveness. However, only 13% of IFC’s power sector investment went to LISs, failing on its commitment to increase the share of LIS in its power sector portfolio. The WB’s contribution in the transport sector (key segments of the national highway network, state roads, and urban transport) delivered positive results for expanding access and improving performance. Concerns about road safety and the environment were increasingly mainstreamed into transport projects. The WB’s support in railways , in addition to the successful Mumbai Urban Transport project (FY02-FY11), included the Eastern Dedicated Freight Corridor I project (FY11), which was too recent to produce results yet. In urban and municipal development, while there were notable contributions to innovative solutions in areas such as transport, PPPs in sewerage treatment, 24/7 water delivery, and municipal financial management in some cities and states, the overall WBG engagement was relatively recent. AAA work focused on capacity building, especially in urban transport planning and implementation at the national, state and city level through GEF Grant facility, and laying the foundation for new operations. In particular, the WB’s efforts to help improve infrastructure asset management delivered significant results. 27. WBG engagement on PPPs expanded with mixed results. IFC Advisory services provided capacity building in the states and assisted 15 specific PPP transactions in a broad range of sectors: ports, urban transport, solar power, street lighting, irrigation, roads, hospitals, and health services, where improvements in quality infrastructure services were achieved. The WB focused on the broader policy environment for PPPs at the national level through NLTA. The WB-IFC provided joint advisory services for the Chennai metro and support to the Maharashtra State Electricity Transmission Company (through the sub-national lending program). However, the main WB instrument conceived to provide financing for PPPs, the Financial Intermediary Loan to India Infrastructure Finance Company (IIFCL) (FY10) encountered major difficulties as the nature of the projects made complying with the WB’s fiduciary and safeguards policies much more difficult than anticipated, and disbursements have so far been negligible. Many IFC PPP advisory projects did not bring about results as efforts to set up independent infrastructure development corporations for PPP at the state level met legal and bureaucratic constraints, while land acquisition emerged as a major issue. Overall, the WBG achievement fell short of the stated objective to transfer cutting-edge technology for PPP. The CASCR notes the perception of some government stakeholders that the WBG has lost its edge with respect to PPP policy advice and implementation support. The WB is undertaking a Review of Experience with PPPs (FY13). B2 - Addressing skill shortages 28. Deepen understanding of opportunities and challenges of skills development and help fill skill shortages in the public sector. Increase number, employment and earnings of skilled workers for more inclusive growth (moved from Pillar III, Cluster B) . The CASCR reports that 2 Sector Skills Councils were created under the WB’s Vocational Training Improvement project (FY07), but provides no information on the other outcome indicator (success of WBI training in the health sector). The WB’s interventions on skills delivered results at the project level, but didn’t produce a broader impact. Preliminary findings from a national tracer study Under the Vocational Training Project (FY07) confirmed that targets in graduation rates, likelihood in finding employment and salary levels For Official Use Only CASCR Review 9 Independent Evaluation Group were exceeded. The CASCR notes that the existence of a multiplicity of agencies and stakeholders constrained WBG support to national initiatives. At the same time, the WBG lacked a systematic approach to skills development in the poorer states, where the value-added of the WB could have been the highest. B3 - Expanding agricultural productivity 29. Acceleration in agricultural productivity and in long-term agricultural growth in areas covered by WB-supported projects. Increased productivity of irrigation water in selected irrigation schemes, in at least three states. Growth of agriculture in the states where the WB was engaged varied from 1.0 - 5.3%, which was a considerable improvement over the past period. The CASCR reports yields increases in the range of 35 - 50%, some crop diversification, and improved agricultural and watershed management practices in WB project areas. There is no information on farm incomes. A diverse WB portfolio supported agricultural productivity growth, with new lending amounting to $3.7 billion during the CAS period. IF C’s loans and equity investment in Jain Irrigation, India’s largest producer of micro-irrigation systems and one of the largest integrated agribusiness firms, brought about highly satisfactory development outcomes. There was, however, no particular focus on the LIS states, and the CASCR notes that no analytical work on key agriculture policy issues (such as subsidies to agriculture and the food grains procurement system) was undertaken, owing in part to a lack of demand but limiting the contribution of the WB beyond the pilot interventions. There is no information on the increase in private sector participation in dairy and food processing sectors and in the number of farmers with formal/informal affiliations for sourcing arrangements (CAS indicators). IFC made investments in companies like Suguna Poultry and reached out to small out-growers, raw material suppliers and SMEs. Reengagement at a national scale to support the further development of the dairy sector was just beginning through the National Dairy Support Project (FY12). IFC’s support for Jain Irrigation had a component on developing the food processing industry focusing on the fruit and vegetable supply chain. IFC also invested in half a dozen food and beverage companies and provided advisory services on agri-linkages with private sector firms. Cluster C: Supporting Sound Macro and Financial Management and Structural Reforms C1 - Macro management and structural reforms 30. Improved macroeconomic management in DPL states. Informed public discussion and debate on next stages of structural reform, especially in the lagging states. The CASCR reports mixed fiscal performance in the DPL states. A dialogue on improving the management of public financial resources continued from the previous CAS period under 4 state DPL operations. The 3 completed operations were rated as satisfactory/moderately satisfactory by IEG. The work on fiscal management and governance was supported through intensive NLTA, some in collaboration with the DFID. However, questions arose about the impact of a budget support operation could make on issues that required long-term engagement. Some analytical work financed under the operations assisted the authorities in meeting the various benchmarks, but analytical work on the growth constraints in LISs was scant, with only a few completed reports such as the Bihar Growth Assessment (FY12). There is no information on the extent to which the WB helped inform public discussion on next steps of structural reforms in the lagging states. The CASCR notes that increased resource transfer from the central Government to the LISs reduced the financial leverage of the DPLs, which led to more limited use of state DPLs in the later part of the CAS period. C2 - Financial Sector and Capital Markets 31. Financing (especially long-term) for infrastructure investment expanded in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis, as needed to counter the cyclical downturn. Bridging [infrastructure] financing gaps caused by the global financial crisis (moved from Pillar I, B1). The first CAS outcome indicator tracked increases in WBG’s infrastructure commitments in support of maintaining the pace of public investment. During FY09-FY10, the WB committed $5.8 billion in infrastructure projects (roads, electricity, PPP), compared to $2.1 billion over the previous CAS period. For Official Use Only CASCR Review 10 Independent Evaluation Group There is no data on IFC long-term debt and equity commitments in infrastructure (CAS indicator), but IFC’s overall commitment in infrastructure declined during the CAS period, reaching only 69% of the amount in the previous CAS period. The CASCR does not report on the amount of local currency private capital invested in infrastructure (an outcome indicator), although private financing of infrastructure increased, outstripping the growth in public financing the result in part of the progress the country made with developing and implementing PPP approaches in various sectors. 32. The CAS/CASPR results matrix did not have any outcome, indicator or target for improvement in the broader access to finance and capital market development. The Indian Banking system remained relatively shielded from the global crisis of 2008-09 and Indian banks did not borrow short-term to improve their liquidity situation before 2010. A budget support operation of $2 billion (Banking Sector Support Loan (FY10)) provided bridge financing for stabilization of the Banking sector, which facilitated continued credit growth. As the second of two operations under the DPL series did not happen and the project design back-loaded the policy reforms, little was achieved on banking reform. A planned Capital Market TA was dropped. IFC contributed to maintaining the financial stability of India by mobilizing $1.5 billion and another $11.8 million for 23 advisory projects in the financial sector 33. IEG rates the outcome of the WBG assistance under Pillar I as moderately satisfactory. The WB’s work on inclusive growth delivered on its main commitments and contributed, albeit in a small way, to the outstanding national outcomes. T he WB’s catalytic effects were important in some areas (e.g. community development in rural areas). Good progress was achieved in the power sector for expanding access to electricity and building institutional capacity. Progress was also made in roads, including road asset management practices, but support in railways (beyond Mumbai metro) was recent with limited results. Progress in urban development fell below expectations despite the efforts at capacity building and innovation solutions; a more integrative approach is needed. Through a balanced combination of investment, community engagement and attention to design, the WB’s work on improving agricultural productivity contributed to the good outcomes. However, engagement with the LISs on agriculture was limited and work in agribusiness was just starting. The WBG did scale up its microfinance program and the transfer of resources to India during the crisis. However, the policy objectives under the financial sector went unmet. The results on PPP fell significantly below the optimistic expectations under the CAS, which calls for the WBG to reflect and temper its commitments in areas where fiduciary requirements are very strict. The WBG’s work on skills development had localized results, but there is no evidence in the CASCR of noticeable impacts beyond the projects. Overall, there was limited progress in engaging the poor states on critical structural reforms to accelerate growth, including the absence of key AAA in this area. This is a major shortcoming and a missed opportunity. Pillar II: Promoting Sustainable Development 34. In line with the 11th FYP’s heightened emphasis on sustainable development, the WBG developed its sustainability agenda around three clusters of objectives: (i) improving water resources management; (ii) reducing the burden of environmental degradation; and (iii) environmental management and resilience to climate change and disasters. Cluster A: Improving Water Resources Management 35. Strengthened water resources management (WRM) including quantity and quality and development at national, inter-state, state and local levels. Partial progress was made in improving water management practices, but the overall effort fell below the strong commitments outlined in the CAS. Achievements at the project level included empowering water users associations to promote stakeholder participation in irrigation system management and establishing Water Resources Regulatory Authorities in targeted states, although not all of them had the necessary regulatory authority. There is no evidence of strengthened capacity in the central government to address national and inter-jurisdictional WRM and little progress in inter-jurisdictional management at state level. Progress toward improving the tools for planning and management of water resources was limited to hydrological data being made more publically available and economic models being developed. IFC investment and advisory services helped improve its client companies’ water management practices. For Official Use Only CASCR Review 11 Independent Evaluation Group There is no data on the broader mobilization of private capital in the water sector. Overall, the WBG program was weak vis-à-vis the ambitious CAS objectives, which included bold reforms to improve performance, reduce water-related shocks, and adaptation to growth and change. The program followed the traditional approach with a focus on projects. AAA was scarce, except for a major report on groundwater. The CASCR points to the complex institutional challenges and the need for long-term engagement, but it does not address how the CAS design was expected to deliver on its own commitments. 36. Strengthened regional cooperation on water. The "Abu Dhabi Dialogue", supported by a multi-donor trust fund (South Asia Water Initiative) and a small grants program for collaborative research, represented a first step in advancing regional cooperation. For better flood management in the Ganges Basin, the WB’s Ganges Basin Strategic Assessment (FY12) helped develop hydrological and economic models of the Gangetic plain and work was under way on regional hydromet and forecasting systems. There is no information on improvement in public knowledge and regional investment with regard to shared river basins. Cluster B: Reducing the Burden of Environmental Degradation 37. Enhanced efficiency in power sector in select states. The efficiency of the electricity sector increased as per official statistics. The WB contributed to this national outcome through energy efficiency investments in transmission and to a lesser extent in generation. However, the CASCR provides no data on reduction in power transmission losses using cutting-edge technology. A highlight of WB support was the Rampur Hydropower project (FY08), which produced efficiency gains in the Northern Grid of the country. The impact of other interventions, several of which were financed by GEF, was scant because the engagements were recent and their implementation experienced delays that were due in part to exogenous factors. During the CAS period, 65% of IFC’s power sector investments ($201 million) went to renewable energy (and about 40% of IFC investments in the renewable energy worldwide were in India). 38. Increased investments in low-carbon growth using domestic and concessional sources of funding. The CASCR does not provide any information on investment in low-carbon growth in India. The Government focused increasing attention on mitigating the environmental impact of economic growth and issued an ambitious low carbon growth strategy even if the carbon footprint of the country was still small. The WB contributed to the preparation of this strategy with India: Low Carbon Development Options (FY09), a flagship report which highlighted the potential gains in controlling carbon emissions, and other AAA work that set the ground for various lending operations and NLTA. The Government’s efforts led the Clean Technology Fund Trust Fund Committee to endorse India’s Investment Plan in May 2012. The WB, for its part, moved towards greater Green House Gas (GHC) sensitivity in its operations, resulting in 35% of the portfolio having GHG mitigation co-benefits in FY11, up from 10% in FY09. IFC’s climate friendly investments in India increased by 24% between FY09 and FY11 and IFC mobilized investments worth US$130 million (the size of IFC annual investment from own fund) from private investors over this period. The outcome indicator on reduction of CO2 emissions had no baseline or target; at project level, the CASCR reports that the carbon finance projects’ CO2 reduction targets were achieved and the expected GHG emission avoided by IFC investments increased fivefold during FY09-FY11. The WB provided NLTA to the National Solar Power Mission; IFC successfully piloted Gujarat Solar Rooftop PPP program. However, there is no information on the progress toward the CAS target of increasing grid-connected solar power generation by 1,000 MW. 39. Improvements in end-use energy efficiency and demand-side management. No information is provided in the CASCR. Cluster C: Environmental Management and Resilience to Climate Change and Disasters 40. Enhanced investments in environmental management, addressing key environmental issues related to large-scale infrastructure development, hazardous waste management, coastal zone management, ozone-depleting substances, biomass-based rural electrification and For Official Use Only CASCR Review 12 Independent Evaluation Group integration of sustainability in project design. Enhanced capacity of central government and states to manage environmental degradation. There is no data on enhanced investments in environmental management. The CASCR reports on WB activities, which included projects that initiated 32 pilots for introducing new investments and business models in environmental management; workshops for disseminating three knowledge products on issues related to environmental degradation, and projects that began preparing remediation plans for addressing legacy contaminated sites in two states. It also reports that WB’s knowledge contributions laid the groundwork for continued engagement on adaptation to climate variability and long-term climatic changes. The WB also helped meet India’s obligation under the Montreal Protocol. There is no information on the extent to which environmental management capacities at central and state levels improved as a result of WB assistance. 41. Increased investments in climate-resilient infrastructure and livelihoods using domestic and concessional sources of funding. The CASCR reports that WB portfolio substantially increased the adaptation co-benefits between FY09 and FY11 (from 0 to 31%), and that WB projects were influencing the approaches that Indian policymakers adopt for incorporating issues of climate variability and climate change in development, and for strengthening disaster management preparedness. There is no data on domestic investments in climate-resilient infrastructure and livelihoods. 42. Strengthen policy, institutional, technical, and financial capacity for managing natural disaster risks at central and state level. The CASCR reports on the number of houses, cyclone shelters, bridges and evacuation roads that were built with WB financial assistance (including a number of emergency recovery projects), as well as on-line courses on disaster risk management offered via NLTA. However, there is no indication that the WB has had an impact on the institutional architecture and capacity for managing disasters. 43. IEG rates the outcome of WBG assistance under Pillar II as moderately unsatisfactory. In line with the Government’s priorities, the CAS highlighted the expected outcomes in water resources management. Delivery of results, however, fell below expectations (and there is little reflection and discussion in the CASCR on why this happened and what could be learned from the disappointing results). In environment and climate change areas, the WB’s scaled-up program was promising and achieved good project-level results in some cases, but was generally too recent to be able to deliver the expected higher-level outcomes during the CAS period, resulting in very few outcomes being achieved and several not achieved at all. Support for strengthening disaster management capacity and preparedness was weak with no evidence of improved capacity at central and state level for managing disaster risks. Pillar III: Increasing Effectiveness of Service Delivery 44. Under this pillar, WBG strategy aimed to help address the cross-sectoral governance issue that affects development effectiveness, and to improve the delivery of specific services: education, health and nutrition, social assistance, and water and sanitation. Cluster A: Enhancing development effectiveness - across sectors 45. Strengthening accountability institutions and mechanisms at the union, state and local levels (e-governance, citizens’ oversight, citizens’ scorecards, fiduciary controls on financial management and procurement (e-procurement)). Under the 11th FYP, the Government committed to increase the transfer of resources through Centrally Sponsored Schemes (CSSs) to the states for the delivery of services, and to improve the effectiveness of the CSS schemes. The Government also emphasized improving governance through citizens’ voice and oversight that was consistent with the inclusive growth agenda. Building on the country’s considerable capacity in information management, the Government launched e-governance initiatives that leveraged e-identity schemes to promote better access to services for the poor and to reduce financial leakages. The WB, in turn, embedded IT-based governance schemes in one-third of its projects and, through the e-Delivery of Public Services DPL-I (FY11), helped the National e-Governance Program improve service delivery across its 27 mission mode projects, focusing on LISs. The WB also mainstreamed Governance and Accountability Action Plans (GAAP) in its projects, strengthened the accountability mechanisms in its support for CSSs and For Official Use Only CASCR Review 13 Independent Evaluation Group state-level programs and systems, and made some progress in the dialogue on fiduciary controls and the use of national systems in procurement, performance management, and auditing. The implementation of the Right to Information Act was more experimental and remained at a pilot stage, while the state DPLs and operations that targeted urban development and decentralization included innovative computerized operations for financial management, tax administration, and service delivery for local authorities. The strategy to channel WB resources through flagship CSSs while working at the center and the state level to improve delivery was relevant and sound, as it allowed scaling up pilot interventions and helped build national programs and institutions. However, for this strategy to be effective, the institutional capacity of LISs needed to be improved in order to benefit from the national programs. In this regard, the CASCR does not present evidence that the institutional capacity for service delivery in LISs improved across the board as a result of WB engagement. IFC’s investment climate programs in select LIS helped streamline business regulations which contributed to improving institutional capacity for service delivery. 46. Strengthened citizens’ partnerships with government for improved service delivery. The Government of India is deeply committed to involving communities in service delivery. WB support came through components of individual projects such as livelihood, water and sanitation and health operations. The CASCR notes that the effectiveness of this approach requires greater attention to capacity building at the community level. There is no indication of significant impact of these individual interventions on national or state programs. An NLTA to the Ministry of Corporate Affairs focused on corporate responsibility with emphasis on financial and technical contributions of the private sector to service delivery. 47. Strengthened land acquisition, resettlement and rehabilitation (LARR) systems and capacity at the level of GoI and selected states following the National Resettlement and Rehabilitation Policy (NRRP) 2007. India undertook a strategic shift toward a “rights-based” approach to social inclusion through the National Resettlement and Rehabilitation Policy (NRRP) of 2007, but implementation of LARR systems has been slow, with approval of critical legislation pending. WB support was limited to an Urbanization Review and PPIAF grant-supported AAA to identify international and Indian experiences relevant to urban land issues, as well as some land acquisition and resettlement and rehabilitation components in infrastructure projects. The CAS targets were not met. Cluster B: Enhancing development effectiveness – Education 48. Help GoI achieve universal elementary education of satisfactory quality . Progress in elementary education was significant: enrollment was nearly universal, the dropout rate decreased and the retention rate increased consequently. Enrollment share of girls was at 48.5% in FY10/11 and that of minorities and special groups did not differ from the larger population. There are indications that the quality of education also increased. The transition rate from primary to upper primary stagnated and there is no data on the number of out-of-school children. The WB had a history of long-term engagement in the education sector. In addition to financing through a SAWp to support the CSS, the WB delivered impact evaluations, a study on public-private education, and an NLTA on teachers’ education. These sustained interventions have allowed the WB to leverage systemic changes. 49. Support GoI’s effort to improve access, equity and quality of secondary education . Government’s attention to the quality of secondary education heightened during the CAS period, with two Indian States participating in OECD’s Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) for the first time. WB involvement in secondary education was limited to the preparation of Secondary Education (FY12) to address quality issues at both national and state levels. Cluster C: Enhancing development effectiveness - Health and Nutrition 50. Enhanced coverage, quality and equity in the delivery of essential health services in programs/states supported by the WB. Outdated information on health outcomes (latest information available came from DLHS-3 survey in 2007-08 and the Coverage Evaluation Survey in 2009) prevents gauging with precision advances in the health sector, although the overall trends were positive. Key For Official Use Only CASCR Review 14 Independent Evaluation Group maternal and child health indicators improved, including in the lagging states and among the vulnerable groups and the poorest. India also made steady but uneven progress in addressing the challenges of TB/AIDS, malaria and polio. The contributions of the WB through state interventions were generally successful, meeting the relevant targets, although internal and IEG reviews raised concerns over their effectiveness in reaching the poor and over the quality of the M&E systems. Until recently, the WB’s interventions did not give priority to LISs and there is no evidence that the experience from the projects has fed into state and national programs. Recognizing the role of the private sector in health care in India, IFC launched/supported initiatives to encourage further development of private health care facilities, and provided advisory services to specific PPP transactions for hospitals and health services. IFC’s healthcare investments supported expansion of hospital chains, stand -alone hospitals, and niche areas like medical instruments & devices, vaccines, biotechnology related products and generic drug manufacture. 51. Improved monitoring and impact evaluation of health interventions . In the nine states supported by the WB’s Integrated Decease Surveillance Project, weekly reporting from districts in the web portal-based reporting system attained 95% by January 2012. Several impact evaluations of WB- supported programs were on-going, with one already completed. As noted above, several internal and IEG reviews noted weak M&E systems at project level. 52. Strengthened accountability for resource allocation and use. Improved performance of local fiduciary systems, including supply chain management . The CASCR reports that the WB implemented the recommendations of the DIR by strengthening governance at the project level, not only in health interventions but the entire portfolio. The WB-developed procurement assessment tools that were shared with counterparts; there is no information on application of these tools by the agencies undertaking decentralized procurement as per CAS target. The CASCR does not discuss performance- based financing mechanism with districts, municipalities or municipal corporations. 53. Reformed and strengthened national ICDS program that prioritizes evidence-based nutrition. Effective multi-sectoral nutrition service delivery models tested for subsequent scale- up. Local governments (Panchayats) facilitate improved nutrition service delivery and utilization in districts of Bihar. Although the Government rightly expected that the broad increases in income should be having an impact on nutrition, there is no updated data to gauge progress. The Government’s national Integrated Childs Development Services (ICDS) scheme, however, remained marginally effective, while the incipient WB engagement focused on building a dialogue based on the pilots from several Rural Livelihood and other projects. A more direct engagement, the ICDS System Strengthening and Nutrition Improvement Project, was approved in FY13. AAA was scant and came towards the end of the CAS period. Widespread incidence of malnutrition, particularly among children, remained a difficult challenge that posed a potentially high cost for India’s long -term development. Cluster D: Enhancing development effectiveness -- Social Protection 54. Improved impact of social protection programs and services for the poor, assisting them to cope with extreme/chronic poverty and manage the impacts of household shocks on their welfare. Despite considerable room for improvement in the social protection programs at both national and the local level, the WB’s contribution towards improving the impact of social protection systems was limited. The original plan to support the Government’s efforts to expand health insurance to the poor (through RSBY, the national health insurance schemes) was relevant given the important role of the private sector in health services delivery. RSBY indeed expanded rapidly during 2008-2012; a planned WB project to support RSBY was dropped, but a NLTA was delivered. The WB undertook extensive analytical work and project preparation at the center and in Bihar, which laid the foundation for future assistance. Cluster E: Enhancing development effectiveness -- Urban Services 55. Help develop appropriate approaches to land market reform that can be replicated . The CAS focused on the urban land markets, seeking to develop a successful pilot intervention in one large For Official Use Only CASCR Review 15 Independent Evaluation Group urban area (Mumbai, Delhi, or a city in Guajarat). This was not achieved. Several urban projects that remained at an early stage of implementation addressed land issues, although the CASCR does not discuss their duplicability. Cluster F: Enhancing development effectiveness -- Water Supply and Sanitation 56. Increased access to improved and sustainable drinking water and sanitation services in rural areas. The long-term (over 20 years) WB engagement in this area helped develop an approach to delivering rural water that began to be scaled up through state and central programs. Two of the CAS targets were 90% met; the remaining one was more than 50% met. However, none of the fielded operations for in the Rural Water Supply and Sanitation program were in LISs. Access to sanitation facilities and reliable in-house piped water still eluded the majority of India’s rural population (two-thirds for sanitation). IFC financed a private provider of water services across 175 villages in Andhra Pradesh. 57. Improved water supply and sanitation services in urban and peri-urban areas. The CASCR reports that detailed targets for access, operations and maintenance were met in most cases in WB-supported projects, but overall urban water supply and sanitation needs remained woefully underserved. IFC provided financing and TA to a private water infrastructure company to develop innovative water projects in two midsize towns. There is no information on new contractual arrangements, although IFC engagements in PPPs and Build-operate-and-transfer concessions confirmed the need for continued government grants as commercial tariffs are not yet allowed, and the importance of government monitoring to ensure implementation of contractual condition. WBG support was more effective in water supply than in sanitation. 58. IEG rates the outcome of WBG assistance under Pillar III as moderately satisfactory. Good progress was achieved in education, and rural water and sanitation sectors, where the WB had maintained a long-term engagement. Work in the health sector through the national programs delivered mixed results, calling for greater efforts at linking local and national support. The focus on governance at the central and local levels with an emphasis on community involvement and oversight was relevant, but, this being a long-term agenda, there is no clear evidence that the necessary transformational turnaround has been achieved. Progress in nutrition and social assistance fell considerably below the CAS expectations. In particular, the lack of an aggressive and forward looking program on child malnutrition is surprising given the very high incidence of this problem in India, as well as its deleterious impact on mortality, morbidity, and the ability of poor children to take advantage of education. Objectives CASCR Rating IEG Rating Pillar I: Achieving Rapid, Inclusive Growth NA Moderately Satisfactory Pillar II: Promoting Sustainable Development NA Moderately Unsatisfactory Pillar III: Increasing Effectiveness of Service Delivery NA Moderately Satisfactory 4. Overall IEG Assessment CASCR Rating IEG Rating Overall Outcome: Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory WBG Performance: Satisfactory Satisfactory Overall outcome: 59. IEG rates the overall outcome of WBG support as moderately satisfactory, below the CASCR rating of satisfactory. The CAS program pursued a broad range of objectives that were ambitious and included areas where engagement was nascent. While good progress was achieved on multiple fronts, there was slow and partial progress in some important areas. For Official Use Only CASCR Review 16 Independent Evaluation Group 60. The WBG’s work on inclusive growth delivered on its main commitments and contributed to the outstanding national outcomes through catalytic effects in some areas such as community development in rural areas. Good progress was achieved in the power sector as reflected in improved access and strengthened institutions, as well as in the education and rural water and sanitation sectors, where the WB maintained a long-term engagement. The WBG’s work on improving agricultural productivity contributed to the good national outcomes, although engagement with the LISs on agriculture was limited while work in agribusiness was just starting. Progress was also made in the transport sector. The WBG scaled up its microfinance program and the transfer of resources to India during the crisis, but did not meet the policy objectives in the financial sector. The WBG’s work on skills development produced localized results, but little impact on addressing skill shortages. Supported by ample AAA, a substantive program emerged to address environmental and climate change issues, although concrete results were still scarce. On the other hand, the delivery of results was below expectation in a number of areas: the limited progress in urban development called for a more integrative approach; the shortfalls in the PPP program necessitated careful reflections on and adjustments to the WBG’s commitments in areas where fiduciary requirements could delay portfolio implementation; disappointing achievements in water management and institutions suggested a weak understanding of the sector dynamics; the mixed results in the health sector required greater attention to linking local and national support; and the lack of serious turnaround in governance at the central and local levels pointed to the need for continued long-term efforts. There was weak support in the areas of disaster management, little engagement with the LISs on structural reforms to accelerate growth, and a fragmented program to address child malnutrition, which was arguably the weakest element of the WB assistance strategy given the severity of the problem. WBG Performance: 61. IEG rates WBG performance as satisfactory, concurring with the CASCR rating. The WBG program showed considerable flexibility, responding promptly to the increased demand for funding and for scaling up engagement in priority areas of the Government. Portfolio performance was good through active management of implementation risks and by addressing integrity concerns inherited from the previous CAS. The knowledge agenda was generally supportive of the program in drawing lessons from past experiences as well as charting the way for new engagement, which was innovative and transformational in various areas. There was increased collaboration between the WB and IFC in several areas, especially when it was embedded in the early design and not retrofitted afterwards. Cooperation with other development partners contributed to strong TF activities that supported CAS implementation. A sound program of ongoing activities was in place for the next strategy period. However, there were a number of design and implementation issues that need to be addressed. The broad design would have benefited from a clearer differentiation between areas of mature engagement with strong supporting programs and solid engagement with clients, and areas of advocacy or exploration where results were uncertain. The results framework suffered from various deficiencies ranging from weak results chain, to poor formulation of the outcomes and a lack of quantification of outcome indicators. Although IFC significantly sharpened its focus on LIS, the WB’s engagement with lagging states was not fully in accord with the Government’s request as presented in the CAS, while the program for advancing the agenda to reduce child malnutrition was too weak to be able to achieve the expected outcomes. Fiduciary concerns remained an issue throughout the CAS period. 5. Assessment of CAS Completion Report 62. The CACR is fairly complete and informative. It provides a balanced view of WB and IFC engagements, presents clearly where the WBG performance has exceeded expectations and where it has fallen short, and explains how the WB team responded to fiduciary concerns. However, although the CASCR broadly follows the CASPR results matrix, it could have provided more explanation for the frequent and ad hoc additions and removals of indicators. There is a very limited analysis of the For Official Use Only CASCR Review 17 Independent Evaluation Group WBG’s contribution to the country goals. At times, the document confuses outputs for outcomes and equates project approvals with delivery of results. A more thorough stocktaking of the results achieved in the lagging states would have been helpful. The CASCR could also have usefully commented on the large number of fiduciary investigations during the CAS period. The lessons offered in the CASCR are extensive and judicious. 6. Findings and Lessons 63. IEG concurs with the lessons drawn by the CASCR. However, it wishes to underscore that the lack of a well-specified results chain linking the WBG interventions with CAS objectives, and weak M&E in program implementation seriously constrains the learning process. It prevents the identification of the reasons for which the WBG succeeded or failed in achieving the CAS objectives, and of the potential catalytic impact that the WBG may have, which is particularly important when the CAS resources, financial and intellectual, are small in relation to the development challenges and the own resources of the country. Annexes CASCR/CPSCR Review 19 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 1: India Planned and Actual Lending, FY09-12 Annex Table 2: Grants and Trust Funds Active in FY09-12 (in US$ million) Annex Table 3: Planned and Actual Analytical and Advisory Work, FY09-12 Annex Table 4: IEG Project Ratings for India, FY09-12 Annex Table 5: IEG Project Ratings for India and Comparators, FY09-12 Annex Table 6: Portfolio Status for India and Comparators, FY09-12 Annex Table 7: IDA/IBRD Net Disbursements and Charges Summary Report for India FY09-12 (in US$ million) Annex Table 8. Total Development Assistance and Official Aid, 2008- 2010 (in US$ million) Annex Table 9: Millennium Development Goals Annexes CASCR/CPSCR Review 21 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 1: India Planned and Actual Lending, FY09-12 Proposed Approval Proposed Approved Project ID Project Rating FY FY Amount Amount Programmed Projects in Original CAS P102767 SME Additional Financing 2009 2009 200 400 P102771 Financing PPPs thru India Infrastructure Finance Company Ltd 2009 2010 600 1,195 U P094360 National VBD Control & Polio Eradication 2009 2009 521 521 MS P100735 Orissa Community Tank Management 2009 2009 112 112 MU P093478 Orissa Rural Livelihoods 2009 2009 82 82 MS P102331 Second Madhya Pradesh District Poverty Initiatives 2009 2009 180 100 S P120836 Maharashtra Agricultural Competitiveness 2009 2011 150 100 S P112798 Power System Development IV Additional Financing 2009 2009 400 400 MS P100101 Coal-Fired Generation Rehabilitation 2009 2009 118 180 MS P099979 Capacity Building for Urban Local Bodies - JNNURM 2009 2012 60 60 MS P124639 PMGSY Rural Roads Project 2009 2011 500 1,500 MS P096023 Orissa State Roads 2009 2009 250 250 MU P102549 Technical Engineering Educational Quality Improvement II 2010 2010 300 300 S P100954 Andhra Pradesh Water Sector Improvement 2010 2010 435 451 S P112033 Uttar Pradesh Sodic Lands III 2010 2009 200 197 S P110051 Haryana Power System Improvement 2010 2010 400 330 S P096124 Vishnugad Pipalkoti Hydro Electric 2010 2011 400 648 MS P114338 Eastern Dedicated Freight Corridor I 2010 2011 400 975 S P113028 Mumbai Urban Transport Project 2A 2010 2010 500 430 S P110371 Sustainable Urban Transport 2010 2010 200 105 S P125164 Bihar DPL II 2010 Dropped P108259 Orissa DPL III 2010 Dropped P113834 Capital Markets & Pension Reform TA 2010 Dropped Programmed Projects in CAS Progress Report P122096 Bihar Kosi Flood Recovery 2011-2012 2011 220 220 MS P121515 National Highways Authority Technical Assistance 2011-2012 2011 45 45 MU P122371 Mizoram Roads Additional Financing II 2011-2012 2011 13 13 P107649 Second Karnataka State Highway Improvement 2011-2012 2011 300 350 S P108258 E-Delivery of Public Services 2011-2012 2011 150 150 P107668 Tamil Nadu Empowerment Additional Financing 2011-2012 2011 154 154 P102624 Kerala Local Government and Service Delivery 2011-2012 2011 200 200 S P102329 Rajasthan Rural Livelihoods 2011-2012 2011 150 163 MU P119085 National Ganga River Basin 2011-2012 2011 1,000 1,000 MU P096018 Assam State Roads 2011-2012 2012 200 320 S P124614 Rajasthan Agricultureal Competitiveness 2011-2012 2012 100 109 S P107648 National Dairy Program 2011-2012 2012 1,000 352 S P104164 National Rural Livelihoods 2011-2012 2012 1,000 1,000 MS P102330 North East Rural Livelihoods 2011-2012 2012 120 130 MS P105311 West Bengal Minor Irrigation 2011-2012 2012 250 250 S P121774 Second Kerala Rural Water Supply & Sanitation 2011-2012 2012 190 155 S P118445 Secondary Education 2011-2012 2012 600 500 S P100304 Uttar Pradesh Health Systems Strengthening 2011-2012 2012 85 152 S P122486 Karnataka Watersheds II 2011-2012 2013 80 60 P102627 Bihar Panchayati Raj Institutional Support 2011-2012 2013 120 84 P121731 ICDS System Strengthening 2011-2012 2013 100 106 P105991 National Urban Support 2011-2012 Dropped P094722 Gujarat Urban 2011-2012 Dropped P111867 Social Security for Unorganized Sector 2011-2012 Dropped P119038 Banking Sector Support II 2011-2012 Dropped Total Programmed projects CAS FY09-12 12,085 13,849 Proposed Approval Proposed Approved Project ID Project Rating FY FY Amount Amount Non-programmed Projects P071250 Andhra Pradesh Municipal Development 2010 300 S P096021 Andhra Pradesh Roads Sector 2010 320 MS P097985 Integrated Coastal Zone Management 2010 222 S P091031 Capacity Building for Industrial Pollution Control 2010 64 S P092217 National Cyclone Risk Mitigation 2010 255 MS P115566 Fifth Power System Development 2010 1,000 S P105990 West Bengal Panchayati Raj Institutional Support 2010 200 S Annexes CASCR/CPSCR Review 22 Independent Evaluation Group Proposed Approval Proposed Approved Project ID Project Rating FY FY Amount Amount P089985 Dam Rehabilitation & Improvement 2010 350 S P101650 Andhra Pradesh Rural Water Supply and Sanitation 2010 150 S P119043 Scaling Up Sustainable and Responsible Microfinance 2010 300 S P119882 Karnataka RWSS II Additional Financing 2010 150 P108489 Statistical Strengthening 2010 107 IEG: MU P118830 Tamil Nadu Health Additional Financing 2010 118 P120652 Rajasthan Water Sector Restructuring Additional Financing 2010 19 P118981 Tamil Nadu Road Sector Additional Financing 2010 51 P118673 Second Elementary Education Additional Financing 2010 750 P118821 AP Rural Poverty Reduction Additional Financing II 2010 100 P116020 Banking Sector Support Loan 2010 2,000 S P088520 Biodiversity Conservation & Rural Livelihoods Improvement 2011 15 S P124354 Uttarakhand Decentralized Watershed Additional Financing 2011 8 P130546 Bihar Rural Livelihoods Additional Financing 2012 100 P129686 Assam Agricultural Competitiveness Additional Financing 2012 50 Total projects CAS FY09-12 12,085 20,478 Closing Approved On Going Projects During CAS Period Approval FY Rating FY Amount P050657 UP Health Systems Development 2000 2009 110 IEG:MS P055454 Kerala Rural Water Supply & Sanitation 2001 2009 66 IEG: S P067216 Karnataka Watershed Development 2001 2009 100 IEG: S P050653 Second Karnataka Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Project 2002 Active 152 S P071033 Karnataka Community-Based Tank Management 2002 2012 163 S P072539 Kerala State Transport 2002 2011 255 MS P069889 Mizoram State Roads 2002 2011 78 S P050668 Mumbai Urban Transport 2002 2011 542 MS P040610 Rajasthan Water Sector Restructuring 2002 Active 140 MS P050647 Uttar Pradesh Water Sector Restructuring 2002 2012 149 MS P074018 Gujarat Earthquake Emergency 2002 2009 443 IEG:S P071272 Andhra Pradesh Rural Poverty Reduction 2003 2012 215 P050649 Tamil Nadu Roads 2003 2012 348 S P067606 Uttar Pradesh Roads 2003 2011 488 IEG: MU P073094 Andhra Pradesh Community Forestry 2003 2010 108 IEG: MS P076467 Chattisgarh District Rural Poverty Reduction 2003 2010 113 IEG: MU P072123 Technicial Engineering Quality Improvement 2003 2009 250 IEG: MS P082510 Karnataka Urban Water Supply Improvement 2004 2011 40 S P050655 Rajasthan Health Systems Development 2004 2012 89 MS P078550 Uttarakhand Watersheds 2004 2012 70 S P073776 Allahabad Bypass 2004 2009 240 IEG:MS P073369 Maharashtra RWSS 2004 2010 181 IEG:S P084792 Assam Agricultural Competitiveness 2005 Active 154 S P073651 Disease Surveillance 2005 2012 68 MS P084632 Hydrology II 2005 Active 105 MS P077856 Lucknow-Muzaffarpur National Highways 2005 2012 620 MU P073370 Madhya Pradesh Water Sector Restructuring 2005 Active 394 S P084790 Maharashtra Water Sector Improvement 2005 Active 325 MS P077977 Rural Roads I 2005 2012 400 S P086518 Small & Med Enterprise Financing & Devmpt 2005 Active 120 S P075058 Tamil Nadu Health Systems 2005 Active 111 S P094513 Tsunami Emergency Reconstruction 2005 2012 465 MU P079675 Karnataka Municipal Reform 2006 Active 216 S P078832 Karnataka Panchayats Strengthening 2006 Active 120 MS P093720 Mid-Himalayan (Himachal Pradesh) Wtrsheds 2006 Active 60 S P092735 National Agricultural Innovation 2006 Active 200 S P086414 Power System Development III 2006 2012 400 HS P079708 Tamil Nadu Empowerment and Poverty Reduction 2006 Active 120 S P083780 Tamil Nadu Urban III 2006 Active 300 S P100789 Andhra Pradesh Community-Based Tank Management Project 2007 Active 190 S P090764 Bihar Rural Livelihoods 2007 Active 63 S P096019 Himachal Pradesh State Roads 2007 Active 220 MS P071160 Karnataka Health Systems 2007 Active 142 S Annexes CASCR/CPSCR Review 23 Independent Evaluation Group Proposed Approval Proposed Approved Project ID Project Rating FY FY Amount Amount P078538 National HIV/AIDS Control III 2007 Active 250 HS P090592 Punjab Rural Water Supply & Sanitation 2007 Active 154 MS P090585 Punjab State Roads 2007 Active 250 MS P102768 Strengthening India's Rural Credit Coops 2007 Active 600 MU P090768 Tamil Nadu Irrigated Agriculture Modernization and Water- 2007 Active 485 S Bodies Restoration and Management P078539 Second National Tuberculosis Control 2007 Active 170 S P083187 Uttarakhand RWSS 2007 Active 120 S P075060 Reproductive and Child Health II 2007 2012 360 MS P099047 Vocational Training Improvement 2007 Active 280 MS P075174 Andhra Pradesh DPL III 2007 2010 225 IEG:MS P102547 Elementary Education (Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan II) 2008 Active 600 MS P101653 Power System Development IV 2008 Active 600 HS P095114 Rampur Hydropower 2008 Active 400 MS P105124 HP DPL I 2008 2010 200 IEG:MS P102737 Bihar DPL 2008 2010 225 IEG:S Total On Going projects CAS FY09-12 14,052 Total projects CAS FY09-12 34,530 Source: India 2009 CAS, 2010 CASPR and WB Business Warehouse Table 2a.1, 2a.4 and 2a.7 as of 7/5/2012. Annexes CASCR/CPSCR Review 24 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 2: Grants and Trust Funds Active in FY09-12 (in US$ million) Product Proposed Approval Proposed Approved Project ID Project Line FY FY Amount Amount P100530 Energy Efficiency at Small & Medium Enterprises GEF 2010 2010 17 11 P112061 Sustainable Land, Water & Biodiversity Conservation & GEF 2009 2010 7 7 Mgmt for Improved Livelihoods in Uttarakhand Watershed Sector P100589 Sustainable Urban Transport GEF 2010 2010 20 20 P100531 Coal-Fired Generation Rehabilitation GEF 2009 2009 46 45 P100584 Chiller Energy Efficiency GEF 2009 2009 6 6 P112060 Sustainable Rural Livelihoods & Security through GEF 2009 2010 10 7 Innovations in Land & Ecosystem Mgmt /Additional Financing P088598 Biodiversity Conservation & Rural Livelihoods GEF 2011 8 Improvement P112844 Policy & Institutional Reform for Mainstreaming & GEF 2009 2009 1 1 Upscaling SLEM in India P102790 Chiller Energy Efficiency Montreal Protocol 2009 2009 1 P101274 Rampur Hydro Carbon Offset 2012 38 P105618 Punjab High Voltage Distribution System Carbon Offset 2011 10 P122727 Renovation, Modernization & Upgradation of BBMB Carbon Offset 2011 6 Hydro Power Rehab Project in Punjab, India BioCF T1 Window 1 P105152 BBMB Hydro Power Rehab Project Carbon Offset 2010 3 P119295 Karnataka Wind Carbon Offset 2010 14 P107069 Street Lighting Energy Efficiency Carbon Offset 2010 8 P100352 Karnataka Municipal Water Energy Efficiency Carbon Offset 2010 1 P104901 HP Watershed Management Carbon Offset 2010 8 P129119 Tamil Nadu Empowernment & Poverty Reduction: TA Recipient Executed 2012 3 Disability Activity P122241 TA to Enhance Financial Access through Technology Recipient Executed 2012 2 in Andhra Pradesh Activity P119947 Scaling-up of Assam PWD Computerization Project Recipient Executed 2012 2 Activity P119949 Capacity Building for Road Construction in Bihar Recipient Executed 2012 2 Activity P128634 Strengthening the Enabling Environment for Recipient Executed 2012 0.3 Biodiversity Conservation & Management Activity P121475 Economic Empowerment Project for Women (SEWA) Recipient Executed 2011 2 Activity P121020 PPIAF: Risk Management for IIFCL Recipient Executed 2011 0.4 Activity P117047 Bihar Flood Management Information System Phase II Recipient Executed 2010 2 Activity P119297 Building Capacity & Strengthening Monitoring & Recipient Executed 2010 1 Implementation Capability of IIFCL Activity P120112 Citywide Slum Upgrading Plan for the Heritage City of Recipient Executed 2010 0.5 Agra Activity P122387 DFID TF III Supervision & Fiduciary Costs Recipient Executed 2010 1 Activity P119894 Scaling-up Renewable Energy Technology Recipient Executed 2010 1 Activity P120582 PPIAF: Business Plan for IIFCL Recipient Executed 2010 0.4 Activity P121456 Knowledge Support for PEARL under JNNURM Recipient Executed 2010 0.5 Activity P121464 National Urban Sanitation Policy Recipient Executed 2010 0.1 Activity P104649 India Mumbai Recipient Executed 2009 2 Activity P113188 Mumbai Transformation - Phase II Recipient Executed 2009 0.5 Activity Total Special Financing CAS FY09-12 107 214 Source: India 2009 CAS, 2010 CASPR and WB Business Warehouse as of 7/5/2012. Annexes CASCR/CPSCR Review 25 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 3: Planned and Actual Analytical and Advisory Work, FY09-12 Delivered to Client AAA ID Economic and Sector Work Proposed FY FY Output type Planned in Original CAS or CAS Progress Report (FY09-12) P095499 Towards New Groundwater Strategies in India: Investment in 2009 2009 Report Groundwater Management for Responsible Growth (EW) P113654 Developing a Certification System for State Procurement 2009 2009 Policy Note Agencies in Health Sector in India (EW) P104404 Tracking Results for Better Performance of India's Health Sector 2009 2009 Policy Note (EW) P099972 Corporate Governance for SOEs (EW) 2009 2009 Report P099610 Livestock Sector (EW) 2009 2009 Report P102728 India Poverty Assessment Program (EW) 2009 2010 Report P101555 Energy Intensive Sectors of the India Economy: Options for Low 2009 2010 Report Carbon Development (EW) P090900 India Poverty Mapping (EW) 2009 2010 Policy Note P101962 Streng Institution for Service Delivery: Case Studies (EW) 2010 2010 Policy Note P102560 HR Capacity for Effective Health Systems (EW) 2010 2010 Policy Note P113737 Global Financial Crisis and Policy Response (EW) 2010 2010 Report P110068 Climate Change Impact and Adaptation in Kolkata (EW) 2010 2010 Report P113600 Survey of Pharmaceutical Markets (EW) 2010 2010 Report P106871 Poverty and Social Exclusion (ESW) 2010 2011 Report P125975 India Macro Brief FY11 (EW) 2011 2011 Policy Note P108726 Doing Business Initiatives (EW) 2009 2011 Policy Note P101805 India 2030 Vision for Environmentally Sustainable Future (EW) 2010 2012 Report P104857 National Rural Employment Guarantee Evaluation (EW) 2010 2012 Report P128283 Macro Brief FY12 (EW) 2012 2012 Policy Note P099767 MP Pilot on Integrated Child Development (IE) 2009 2012 Report P107479 Impact Evaluation of Rural Credit Cooperatives (IE) 2010 2013 Report P113662 Social Dimensions of Urbanization (EW) 2009 2013 Planned Policy Note P113513 Skills (EW) 2010 2015 Planned Policy Note P099141 Teacher Accountability and School Outcomes (IE) 2009 2012 Report P118897 DIR Follow-up notes (corruption, competition, accountability 2009 Done as KP product studies) (KP) Quarterly Macro-Financial Update 2009, 2010 Done under IO Irrigation and Drainage Sector Review (ESW) 2010 Dropped Development Policy Review (EW) 2010 Dropped AP State Education Strategy (DFID TF) 2010 Dropped Non planned Best Practice in energy efficiency improvement in coal-fired P105191 generation (EW) 2009 Report P105794 CA: India- Urban & Megacity Strategy (EW) 2009 Policy Note P099377 Moving Out of Poverty (EW) 2009 Report P113739 On Demand Policy Notes for Central Ministry of Finance (EW) 2009 Policy Note P113516 Public-Private Education Study (EW) 2009 Policy Note P108296 Study on Remittances In India (EW) 2010 Policy Note P119216 WB Decentralization in the Health Sector Study (EW) 2010 Policy Note P124622 Government Sponsored Health Insurance Schemes (EW) 2011 Policy Note P106233 Malaria (IE) 2011 Report Renewable Energy Investment Climate Assessment in India P099005 (EW) 2011 Report P118920 Uttarakhand Economic Report (EW) 2011 Report P131735 Policy Notes - Indian Power Sector (EW) 2012 Policy Note P123768 Urbanization Review (EW) 2012 Report P118734 M & E of Health Insurance System of India (IE) 2012 Report Annexes CASCR/CPSCR Review 26 Independent Evaluation Group AAA ID Technical Assistance Proposed FY Delivered to Client Output type FY Planned in Original CAS or CAS Progress Report (FY09-12) P102782 Bihar Enterprise Regulatory Reform (TA) 2009 2009 "How-To" Guidance P090918 Bihar Public Expenditure Management (TA) 2009 2009 Institutional Development Plan P109176 Restructuring Expenditures of West Bengal Power (TA) 2009 2009 Knowledge-Sharing Forum P102776 Umbrella Capital Markets (TA) 2009 2009 "How-To" Guidance P110273 Urban Land Acquisition & Resettlement (TA) 2009 2009 Knowledge-Sharing Forum P115918 Accrual Accounting Pilots 2010 2010 "How-To" Guidance P100844 Andhra Pradesh Pilot Drought Adaptation Initiative 2010 2010 Institutional Development Plan P108375 Deepening outreach of financial services to the underserved 2010 2010 "How-To" Guidance (TA) P110504 Repositioning Nutrition: From Global to Country Level Action In 2010 2010 Knowledge-Sharing Nutrition Forum P102561 Social Security for Unorganized Sector (TA) 2010 2010 "How-To" Guidance P113918 TA for Low Income States (TA) 2010 2010 Knowledge-Sharing Forum P122385 Village Energy Security (TA) 2010 2010 Institutional Development Plan P117447 High-Powered Expert Committee on Urban Infrastructure (TA) 2010 2010 Institutional Development Plan P123508 Economic Policy Network for Emerging Economies (TA) 2010 2011 Knowledge-Sharing Forum P106977 Social Protection Programmatic Sector Work (TA) 2009 2011 "How-To" Guidance P112333 Strengthening PPP Framework and Capacity Building (TA) 2010 2011 How-To" Guidance P104435 Orissa Institutionalizing PSIA Capacity (TA) 2010 2012 How-To" Guidance P112693 Sundarbans Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk 2010 2012 Advisory Services Management (TA) Document O & M Practices in Coal-Fired Generation Plants (TA) 2009 Dropped Capacity building in hydro, renewables, etc. (TA) 2010 Dropped Non planned P100098 Fighting HIV/AIDS Related Stigma--Media 2009 "How-To" Guidance P102631 Modification of Procurement Documents & Processes for WB 2009 Institutional Projects Development Plan P109335 PFM performance Measurement Framework 2009 Knowledge-Sharing Forum P101501 Enhancing Local Accountability 2011 How-To" Guidance P122338 Improved Rural Electricity Services through Renewable Energy 2011 "How-To" Guidance based Distributed Power Generation P120384 Maharashtra-Institutional framework for strengthening 2011 "How-To" Guidance implementation of PPP contracts P116910 Ministry of Finance TA on Climate Change Issues 2011 Institutional Development Plan P107693 Mumbai Transformation Action Plan - Phase II 2011 "How-To" Guidance P116909 Municipal Borrowing 2011 "How-To" Guidance P111243 Org Trans & PPPs in MSETCL 2011 Institutional Development Plan P110338 Preparation of a Statistical Master Plan and a State Strategic 2011 Institutional Statistical Plan Development Plan P124819 State Econ/Fiscal Analysis 2011 Knowledge-Sharing Forum P110372 Urban Water Reform Strategy 2011 Institutional Development Plan P114137 Bihar Immediate Relief Support and Disaster Risk Management 2012 Advisory Services Document P112003 Capacity Building in Disaster Risk Reduction, GFDRR 2012 Advisory Services Document P119451 Constraints to Project Preparation and Implementation 2012 Advisory Services Document P118861 Consultations on Human Development 2012 Advisory Services Document P120171 Facilitating PPPs for Urban Infrastructure Development - PPP 2012 Advisory Services Options Document Annexes CASCR/CPSCR Review 27 Independent Evaluation Group AAA ID Technical Assistance Proposed FY Delivered to Client Output type FY P130018 Growth and Inclusion Workshop 2012 Event Proceeding Document P116814 Health Policy Notes and Client Engagement 2012 Advisory Services Document P114040 Implementation Support for the India Disaster Risk Mitigation 2012 Advisory Services Program Document P124369 PPP Options Study for Waste Water Management in Delhi Jal 2012 Advisory Services Board Document P127752 India Climate Investment Plan 2012 Advisory Services Document P123642 Review of Regulatory Frameworks - Ports and Airports 2012 Advisory Services Document P096025 Institutional Capacity Development for Certification in the Urban 2012 Institutional Sector Development Plan P126667 Policy Workshop at NYU 2012 Advisory Services Document P102635 Strengthening Institutions of Management of Land Acquisition, & 2012 Advisory Services Resettlement & Rehabilitation Document P104818 Urban Institutional Strengthening & Capacity Building 2012 Advisory Services Document P128466 Visiting Fellows Program (FY12) 2012 Advisory Services Document Annexes CASCR/CPSCR Review 28 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 4: IEG Project Ratings for India, FY09-12 Total Evaluated IEG Risk to Exit Proj ID Project Name (US$M) IEG Outcome Development FY Outcome* 83.3 Moderately 2009 P050657 UP Health Systems Development Project Moderate Satisfactory 2009 P055454 Kerala RWSS 61.2 Satisfactory Negligible to Low 2009 P067216 Kar WSHD Development 88.0 Satisfactory Moderate 243.3 Moderately 2009 P072123 Tech/Engg Quality Improvement Project Moderate Satisfactory 2009 P073369 Mahar RWSS 194.5 Satisfactory Negligible to Low 229.9 Moderately 2009 P073776 Allahabab Bypass Moderate Satisfactory 2009 P074018 Gujarat Emergency Earthquake Reconstruct 327.1 Satisfactory Moderate 117.3 Moderately 2010 P073094 AP Comm Forest Mgmt Significant Satisfactory 226.8 Moderately 2010 P075174 AP DPL III Significant Satisfactory 55.9 Moderately 2010 P076467 Chatt DRPP Significant Unsatisfactory 2010 P102737 Bihar DPL 227.4 Satisfactory Moderate 203.0 Moderately 2010 P105124 HP DPL I Moderate Satisfactory 2,000.0 Moderately 2010 P116020 IN: Banking Sector Support Loan Negligible to Low Satisfactory 445.6 Moderately 2011 P067606 UP Roads Moderate Unsatisfactory 107.0 Moderately 2011 P108489 Statistical Strenghening Loan Moderate Unsatisfactory 232.0 Moderately 2011 P072539 IN: Kerala State Transport Moderate Satisfactory 2011 P082510 IN: Karnataka UWS Improvement Project 36.5 Satisfactory Significant 80.4 Moderately 2012 P050655 IN: Rajasthan Health Systems Dev Moderate Satisfactory 26.7 Moderately 2012 P073651 IN: Disease Surveillance Moderate Satisfactory 2012 P086414 IN: Power System Development Project III 400.0 Satisfactory Moderate Source: WB Business Warehouse Table 4a.6 as of as of 07/05/2012. * With IEG new methodology for evaluating projects, institutional development impact and sustainability are no longer rated separately. Annex Table 5: IEG Project Ratings for India and Comparators, FY09-12 RDO% Total RDO% Moderate Total Evaluated Outcome % Outcome % Sat Moderate or Region Evaluated or Lower Sat (No) Sat ($) (No) Lower Sat ($M) ($)* (No)* India 5,385.8 20 88.7 85.0 91.9 80.0 SAR 9,060.1 76 83.1 70.7 67.1 47.4 World 52,064.6 686 83.3 69.7 68.4 54.2 Source: WB Business Warehouse Table 4a.5 as of as of 07/05/2012. * With IEG new methodology for evaluating projects, institutional development impact and sustainability are no longer rated separately. Annexes CASCR/CPSCR Review 29 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 6: Portfolio Status for India and Comparators, FY09-12 Fiscal year 2009 2010 2011 2012 India # Proj 58 70 76 72 # Proj At Risk 9 8 8 8 % Proj At Risk 16 11 11 11 Net Comm Amt 14,754.8 21,155.6 25,067.9 23,383.5 Comm At Risk 2,153.1 2,522.1 3,150.3 3,112.8 % Commit at Risk 14.6 11.9 12.6 13.3 SAR # Proj 171 183 193 183 # Proj At Risk 30 40 38 28 % Proj At Risk 18 22 20 15 Net Comm Amt 24,030.7 31,679.2 37,539.8 35,509.4 Comm At Risk 3,120.0 4,807.0 5,127.7 5,361.2 % Commit at Risk 13.0 15.2 13.7 15.1 World # Proj 1,408 1,449 1,454 1,371 # Proj At Risk 310 328 302 304 % Proj At Risk 22 23 21 22 Net Comm Amt 128,471.6 155,683.9 165,792.3 166,208.1 Comm At Risk 19,539.0 27,683.8 22,573.0 23,324.5 % Commit at Risk 15.2 17.8 13.6 14.0 Source: WB Business Warehouse Table 3a.4 as of 07/05/2012. Annex Table 7: IDA/IBRD Net Disbursements and Charges Summary Report for India FY09- 12 (in US$ million) FY Disb. Amt. Repay Amt. Net Amt. Charges Fees Net Transfer 2009 2,163.15 1,204.65 958.50 237.23 193.73 527.54 2010 4,658.26 1,303.06 3,355.21 109.44 219.98 3,025.78 2011 2,387.54 1,468.03 919.50 83.55 199.68 636.27 2012 2,277.56 1,563.65 713.91 90.45 214.41 409.05 Total (FY09- 11,486.51 5,539.39 5,947.12 520.67 827.81 4,598.65 FY12) Source: WB Loan Kiosk, Net Disbursement and Charges Report as of 07/05/2012 Annexes CASCR/CPSCR Review 30 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 8. Total Development Assistance and Official Aid, 2008- 2010 (in US$ million) Development Partners 2008 2009 2010 2008-2010 Bilaterals Australia 8.27 9.58 16.45 34.3 Austria 2.44 2.34 2.15 6.93 Belgium 17.52 12.06 7.17 36.75 Canada 13.28 11.54 7.91 32.73 Denmark 8.59 7.37 10.14 26.1 Finland 4.32 7.73 6.12 18.17 France -27.17 -29.01 2.83 -53.35 Germany 147.69 263.38 396.93 808 Greece 0.17 0.16 0.1 0.43 Ireland 6.41 5.04 4.26 15.71 Italy 20.23 15.33 11.49 47.05 Japan 599.81 517.01 981.14 2097.96 Korea 2.5 0.75 1.07 4.32 Luxembourg 3.34 3.13 3.7 10.17 Netherlands 4.94 7.21 2.48 14.63 New Zealand 1.68 1.91 0.36 3.95 Norway 34.88 16.08 23.99 74.95 Portugal 0.44 0.42 0.39 1.25 Spain 14.04 25.34 11.41 50.79 Sweden 12.31 9.93 11 33.24 Switzerland 14.65 12.08 10.42 37.15 United Kingdom 613.12 630.34 650.34 1893.8 United States 52.06 48.12 57.38 157.56 DAC Countries, Total 1555.52 1577.84 2219.23 5352.59 Cyprus .. 0.02 .. 0.02 Czech Republic 0.22 0.12 0.18 0.52 Hungary 0.02 0.32 0.17 0.51 Iceland 0.18 .. .. 0.18 Israel 0.59 1.16 0.59 2.34 Poland 0.36 0.11 0.19 0.66 Romania .. .. 0.07 0.07 Slovenia 0.06 0.01 .. 0.07 Thailand 0.03 0.01 0.02 0.06 Turkey 0.48 0.79 0.48 1.75 United Arab Emirates 3.26 0 0.17 3.43 Non-DAC Countries, Total 5.2 2.54 1.87 9.61 Multilaterals AsDB Special Funds 4.95 24.41 .. 29.36 EU Institutions 122.31 98.91 94.26 315.48 GAVI 7.19 1.46 -5.59 3.06 GEF 12.01 55.32 18.99 86.32 Global Fund 131.47 184.17 156.72 472.36 IDA 194.34 464.32 231.55 890.21 IFAD 2.91 2.29 5.5 10.7 Isl.Dev Bank 0.04 .. 2.27 2.31 Montreal Protocol 9.3 5.25 3.41 17.96 OFID 2.92 3.44 -0.97 5.39 UNAIDS 0.95 0.9 1.1 2.95 UNDP 15.09 20.56 16.53 52.18 UNFPA 8.77 12.3 13.3 34.37 UNHCR 2.1 1.84 3.05 6.99 UNICEF 36.59 42.03 42.16 120.78 UNTA 0.32 .. .. 0.32 WFP 5.09 2.81 2.98 10.88 Multilateral, Total 556.35 920.01 585.26 2061.62 All Development Partners Total 2,117.07 2,500.39 2,806.36 7,423.82 Source: OECD DAC Online database, Table 2a. Destination of Official Development Assistance and Official Aid - Disbursements, as of 07/05/2012. Annexes CASCR/CPSCR Review 31 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 9: Millennium Development Goals 1990 1995 2000 2009 Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Employment to population ratio, 15+, total (%) 58 58 57 55 Employment to population ratio, ages 15-24, total (%) 46 45 42 36 Income share held by lowest 20% 8.8 9.1 .. .. Malnutrition prevalence, weight for age (% of children under 5) 59.5 41.1 44.4 .. Poverty gap at $1.25 a day (PPP) (%) 16 14 .. 7 Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP) (% of population) 54 49 .. 33 Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population) 20 17 20 19 Vulnerable employment, total (% of total employment) .. .. .. .. Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education Literacy rate, youth female (% of females ages 15-24) 49 .. 68 .. Literacy rate, youth male (% of males ages 15-24) 74 .. 84 .. Persistence to last grade of primary, total (% of cohort) .. .. 59 .. Primary completion rate, total (% of relevant age group) 64 74 71 96 Total enrollment, primary (% net) .. .. 85 98 Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women Proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments (%) 5 7 9 11 Ratio of female to male primary enrollment (%) 74 81 84 97 Ratio of female to male secondary enrollment (%) 57 64 71 88 Ratio of female to male tertiary enrollment (%) 52 57 66 68 Share of women employed in the nonagricultural sector (% of total nonagricultural employment) 12.7 14.4 16.6 .. Goal 4: Reduce child mortality Immunization, measles (% of children ages 12-23 months) 56 72 55 74 Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) 81 72 63 50 Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000) 115 100 86 65 Goal 5: Improve maternal health Adolescent fertility rate (births per 1,000 women ages 15-19) .. 116 106 82 Births attended by skilled health staff (% of total) .. 34 43 53 Contraceptive prevalence (% of women ages 15-49) 45 41 47 54 Maternal mortality ratio (modeled estimate, per 100,000 live births) 570 470 390 230 Pregnant women receiving prenatal care (%) .. 62 62 75 Unmet need for contraception (% of married women ages 15-49) .. 17 16 .. Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases Children with fever receiving antimalarial drugs (% of children under age 5 with fever) .. .. 12 .. Condom use, population ages 15-24, female (% of females ages 15-24) .. .. .. .. Condom use, population ages 15-24, male (% of males ages 15-24) .. .. .. .. Incidence of tuberculosis (per 100,000 people) 216 216 216 190 Prevalence of HIV, female (% ages 15-24) .. .. .. 0.1 Prevalence of HIV, male (% ages 15-24) .. .. .. 0 Prevalence of HIV, total (% of population ages 15-49) 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 Tuberculosis case detection rate (%, all forms) 80 58 49 59 Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability CO2 emissions (kg per PPP $ of GDP) 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita) 0.8 1 1.1 1.5 Forest area (% of land area) 22 .. 22 23 Improved sanitation facilities (% of population with access) 18 21 25 34 Improved water source (% of population with access) 69 75 81 92 Marine protected areas (% of total surface area) 2 2 2 2 Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development Debt service (PPG and IMF only, % of exports, excluding workers' remittances) 29 32 16 2 Internet users (per 100 people) 0 0 0.5 5.1 Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people) 0 0 0 43 Net ODA received per capita (current US$) 2 2 1 2 Telephone lines (per 100 people) 1 1 3 3 Other Fertility rate, total (births per woman) 3.9 3.5 3.1 2.7 GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$) 380 360 430 1160 GNI, Atlas method (current US$) (billions) 330.9 350.2 458 1404.8 Gross capital formation (% of GDP) 24.2 26.6 24.2 36.5 Life expectancy at birth, total (years) 58 60 62 65 Literacy rate, adult total (% of people ages 15 and above) 48 .. 61 .. Population, total (millions) 873.8 964.5 1,053.9 1,207.7 Trade (% of GDP) 15.7 23.1 27.4 44.9 Annexes CASCR/CPSCR Review 32 Independent Evaluation Group