Page 1 Document of The World Bank Report No: 25856 PAK PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT ON A PROPOSED CREDIT IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 2.7 MILLION (US$3.63 MILLION EQUIVALENT) TO THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF PAKISTAN FOR NATIONAL EDUCATION ASSESSMENT SYSTEM MAY 7,2003 Human Development Unit South Asia Regional Office Page 2 CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective 04/18/2003) Currency Unit = PK Rupees US$l.OO = PKR58.15 PKR 1.00 = US$0.02 AAA ABC AEPM AJK BCEW BPEP CAS CDWP CRDC cw DA DFID DOE EAD ECNEC EFA EMIS ESR ETS FATA FBS GoP GoS IBRD ICB ICT IDA IER IIEP JEA MA MoE MSU NA NEAS NEP NIP AKU-IED FISCAL YEAR July 1 -- June 30 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS Analytical and Advisory Activity Assessment of Basic Competencies Academy of Educational Planning and Management Azad Jammu and Kashmir Aga Khan University - Institute of Educational Development Bureau of Curriculum and Extension Wing Balochistan Primary Education Project Country Assistance Strategy Central Development Working Party Curriculum Research and Development Center Curriculum Wing Daily Allowance Department for International Development Department of Education Economic Affairs Division Executive Committee of the National Economic Council Education for All Education Management Information System Education Sector Reform Education Testing Service Federally Administered Tribal Areas Federal Bureau of Statistics Government of Pakistan Government of Sindh International Bank for Reconstruction and Development International Competitive Bidding Islamabad Capital Territory International Development Association Institute of Education and Research International Institute of Educational Planning Joint Educational Advisor Master of Arts Ministry of Education Multi-donor Support Unit Northern Areas National Education Assessment System Northern Education Project National Institute of Psychology Page 3 NS NWFP PAD PC-I PEACE PED PEDP PEP PIHS PIP PISA PKR PMSP PNE QCBS SAPP I1 SOE SPEDP ST TA TA TGM UK UNESCO UNICEF USA National Shopping North West Frontier Province Project Appraisal Document Planning Commission Form I Provincial Education Assessment Center Primary Education Directorate Primary Education Development Program Primary Education Project Pakistan Integrated Household Survey Project Implementation Plan Program for International Student Assessment Pakistani Rupees Punjab Middle Schooling Project Primary and Non-formal Education (Now called EFA) Quality and Cost Based Selection Social Action Program Project I1 Statement of Expenditures Sindh Primary Education Project Short Term Technical Assistance Travelling Allowance Technical Group Meeting United Kingdom United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization United Nations Children Education Fund United States of America Vice President: Mieko Nishimizu Sector Manager: Michelle Riboud S. Ameer Naqvi Country ManagedDirector: John W. Wall Task Team Leader: Page 4 Page 5 PAKISTAN NATIONAL EDUCATION ASSESSMENT SYSTEM CONTENTS A. Project Development Objective 1. Project development objective 2. Key performance indicators B. Strategic Context 1. Sector-related Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) goal supported by the project 2. Main sector issues and Government strategy 3. Sector issues to be addressed by the project and strategic choices C. Project Description Summary 1. Project components 2. Key policy and institutional reforms supported by the project 3. Benefits and target population 4. Institutional and implementation arrangements D. Project Rationale 1. Project alternatives considered and reasons for rejection 2. Major related projects financed by the Bank andor other development agencies 3. Lessons learned and reflected in the project design 4. Indications of borrower commitment and ownership 5. Value added of Bank support in this project E. Summary Project Analysis 1. Economic 2. Financial 3. Technical 4. Institutional 5. Environmental 6. Social 7. Safeguard Policies F. Sustainability and Risks Page 3 3 3 4 5 5 9 9 10 12 13 15 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 18 18 1. Sustainability 2. Critical risks 19 19 Page 6 3. Possible controversial aspects G. Main Conditions 20 1. Effectiveness Condition 2. Other H. Readiness for Implementation I. Compliance with Bank Policies Annexes Annex 1 : Project Design Summary Annex 2: Detailed Project Description Annex 3: Estimated Project Costs Annex 4: Economic analysis Annex 5: Financial Summary Annex 6: (A) Procurement Arrangements (B) Financial Management and Disbursement Arrangements Annex 7: Project Processing Schedule Annex 8: Documents in the Project File Annex 9: Statement of Loans and Credits Annex 10: Country at a Glance Annex 1 1 : Terms of Reference for Resident Technical Advisor Annex 12: Request for Proposal for Institutional Support Annex 13: Terms of Reference for Technical I Monitoring Committees Annex 14: Major Learning Achievement Studies Conducted in Pakistan Annex 15: Summary of Project Costs Including Contingencies Annex 16: Summary of Costs and Financing Plan for Provinces/Areas - Selected Components 21 21 21 22 23 26 30 31 32 33 38 41 42 43 45 47 50 54 57 58 59 MAP( S) Pakistan Page 7 PAKISTAN National Education Assessment System Project Appraisal Document South Asia Regional Office SASHD Date: May 7,2003 Sector ManagedDirector: Michelle Riboud Country ManagedDirector: John W. Wall Project ID: PO77288 Lending Instrument: Technical Assistance Loan (TAL) Team Leader: S. Ameer Naqvi Sector(s): Primary education (100%) Theme(s): Education for all (P) DEVELOPMENT (DFID) Total: Project Financing Data 4.02 2.91 6.93 [ ]Loan [XI Credit [ ] Grant [ ] Guarantee [ ] Other: For LoanslCreditslOthers: Amount (US$m): 3.63 Proposed Terms (IDA): Standard Credit Grace period (years): 10 Commitment fee: 0.5% Years to maturity: 35 Service charge: 0.75% BORROWER IDA UK: BRITISH DEPARTMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL 1.86 1.87 0.29 0.30 1.76 0.85 2.16 3.63 1.14 Note: Borrower’s financing in the above Financing Plan includes financing by the Provinces and AJK. Beneficiaries: Departments of Education of the four Provinces of Balochistan; North-West Frontier Province; Punjab; Sindh; and Azad Jammu and Kashmir; Federally Administered Tribal Areas; Islamabad Capital Territory; and Northern Areas. Responsible agency: CURRICULUM WING,MINISTRY OF EDU.,ISLAMABAD AND PROV.DEPTS Address: Islamabad, Islamic Republic of Pakistan Contact Person: Mr. Arif Majeed, Deputy Educational Adviser, Curriculum Wing, MoE, Islamabad. Tel: 92 51 4448343 Fax: 92 51 9290141 Email: Other Agency(ies): Bureau of Curriculum of Balochistan; Directorate of Curriculum and Teacher Education, Nort West Frontier Province; University of Education, Punjab; Directorate of Research and Assessment, Sindh; Directorate of Curriculum Research and Development in Azad Jammu and Kashmir; and Directorates of Education in Federally Administered Tribal Areas, Islamabad Capital Territory, and Northern Areas. Address: (1) Balochistan: Quetta; (2) North West Frontier Province: Abbottabad; (3) Punjab: Lahore; (4) Sindh: Jamshoro; (5) Azad Jammu and Kashmir: Muzaffarabad; (6) Federally Administered Tribal Areas: Peshawar; (7) Islamabad Capital Territory: Islamabad; (8) Northern Areas: Gilgit Page 8 r Estimated Disbursements I Bank FY/US$ml: Annual Cumulative __ ~ FY I 2004 I 2005 I 2006 I 2007 1 2008 I 2009 1 0.36 1 1.20 I 0.90 I 0.31 I 0.71 0.15 I 0.36 I 1.56 I 2.46 I 2.77 I 3.48 3.63 I -2- Page 9 A. Project Development Objective 1. Project development objective: (see Annex 1) The development objectives of the National Education Assessment System (NEAS) are: to design and administer assessment mechanisms; to establish administrative infrastructure and capacity for assessment administration, analysis and report writing; and to increase stakeholder knowledge and acceptance of assessment objectives and procedures. Under those broad objectives, specific objectives of the assessment system to be piloted include development of an empirical understanding of the following: 0 0 0 0 0 e how well the curricula are being translated into knowledge and skills among students; subject, geographic and gender-related areas of inequity in student performance; the principal determinants of student performance including teacher, student background and other causal variables; how resource allocation (fiscal, material and human) might be redirected to improve student performance; how to assist teachers to use data to improve student performance; and how to create a sustainable capacity to conduct quality surveys of student learning and to apply findings to policy formation. The NEAS is planned as a sample-based national assessment, to be conducted at grade 4 and grade 8 levels, in four subjects - Language, Mathematics, Science and Social StudiesIIslamiyatlLife Skills. This project will provide the basis for designing and pilot testing the administrative process, the measurement instruments and the information dissemination strategy associated with assessment of learning outcomes. In addition, this project should enable the Government of Pakistan (GoP), Provinces/Areas to make assessment a permanent feature of the education system in the country. 2. Key performance indicators: (see Annex 1) Performance of the project during implementation will be measured by observing whether: (i) partnering arrangements are in place on time; (ii) pilot tests are administered on schedule; (iii) meetings of the National Planning and Coordination Committee are held regularly; (iv) the information campaign is activated; and (v) workshops / seminars are held for stakeholders as planned. The following performance indicators will be used to measure outcomelimpact: (a) valid, reliable baseline and follow-up data (pilot test scoreslmeasures) for Grade 4 and 8 in four subjects are generated; (b) technically proficient assessment staff are trained and in place and included in the regular budget; (c) strong and weak areas of student leaming are identified; (d) policy makers are informed of main findings of the assessment system; and (e) action plans are prepared for improving curriculum, teaching and resource allocation. B. Strategic Context 1. Sector-related Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) goal supported by the project: (see Annex 1) Document number: 24399-PAK Date of latest CAS discussion: 06/24/2002 The Bank's assistance strategy remains focused on helping reduce poverty in Pakistan by investing in people and promoting sustainable economic growth. Supporting pro-poor and pro-gender equity policies is among the CAS program priorities. Under this priority, the CAS states that "Bank support will focus on those -3- Page 10 interventions in the education sector that would help the goal of achieving universal primary education, with particular focus on improving the quality of education provided, and giving priority to the poor and disadvantaged, particularly girls and children in rural areas.” Among the principal indicators of the quality of education services delivered are what students are learning and how well they are able to apply the skills acquired through learning. Credible evidence of outcomes and their determinants is needed to maximize the impact of investments in education. Therefore, under Education Reforms, the creation of a National Education Assessment System (NEAS) is one of the five areas of Bank support for its FY03-FY05 program. The NEAS is a priority program under the MoE’s Education Sector Reform (ESR 2001-2005) Action Plan. One of the specific priorities in that Plan is to ”build assessment capacity at the school, provincial and federal levels to better measure learning outcomes, and improve the quality and effectiveness of program interventions”. NEAS would also develop institutional capacity of the Ministry of Education (MoE) Curriculum Wing (CW) as well as the provinceslareas to monitor the standards of education in the country, a responsibility for which the CW holds a legal mandate. The project will support the establishment, for the first time in Pakistan, of a national and cross-provincial baseline of student achievement as measured against the national curricula. Conducting the national assessment would make available credible data to provide feedback to the education system for resource allocation, policy formulation, improvement of curriculum, textbook and materials development, and teaching, supervisory and management practices, all for the purpose of enhancing the quality of education at the elementary level. Tangible evidence of student learning may help to restore public confidence in the education system and, as a result, help increase access as well. The national objectives of economic development and improved quality of higher education, particularly in the area of science and technology, would be difficult to achieve without a human resource base of individuals who have mastery of basic literacy and numeracy skills for accessing information for life-long learning. The new assessment system will provide credible evidence of how schools are performing to local officials and other stakeholders to enable them to identify areas of weaknesses and thereafter influence the elementary education process. The heavy emphasis on capacity building in the project (TA and Training) will help to ensure that the assessment system is both well institutionalized and sustainable at the end of the project, and by improving technical services, indirectly enhancing the monitoring of investments in basic education. 2. Main sector issues and Government strategy: As a signatory to key international Declarations and Frameworks (Jomtien, 1990; Dakar, 2000), the Government of Pakistan (GoP) is committed to improving the quality of education at all levels, and especially at the elementary stage. The Jomtien Declaration underlines the need for ensuring that: “The focus of basic education must be on actual learning acquisition and outcome, rather than exclusively upon enrolment” (UNESCO, 1990). In the EFA Assessment 2000 document, student achievement scores are included as Indicator No.15. The government’s education policies (1992, 1998-2010) and the recently formulated Education Sector Reforms (ESR) Action Plan (200 1-05) recognize the interdependence of quality and quantity in education as an important contributory factor in national development. The National Education Assessment System (NEAS) is one of the key programs of the ESR. The Curriculum Wing (CW) in the Ministry of Education has a legal mandate for the “maintenance of standards of education”. Although the Ministry of Education has testing mechanisms for assessing individual student performance used as the basis for determining promotion and placement, it has no system of measuring how well schools are doing in implementing the curricula and learning objectives associated with them. Information about student achievement from traditional school -4- Page 11 examinations, or from the external examinations conducted by the Boards of Intermediate and Secondary Education, is not comparable across the country because the marks are derived from different tests or examinations. Consequently, the Ministry has no institutional mechanisms for assessing the quality of its education service delivery. indicative costs (US$M) Component 3. Sector issues to be addressed by the project and strategic choices: As noted above, the basic issue is that no institutional arrangement exists at the national level to conduct quality surveys of student learning and to determine how well the education system is performing and to apply findings to policy formation and resource allocations. Similarly, there are no appropriate means to know: (a) how well the curricula are being translated into knowledge and skills among students; (b) the principal determinants of student performance; and (c) the ways to assist teachers to use data to improve student performance. The Government of Pakistan, Ministry of Education (MoE) has requested the World Bank's assistance in designing, piloting and initiating the implementation of a system to fill these gaps. The proposed project would be the vehicle for such assistance. % of Bank- % of financing Bank- Total (US$M) financing The project will enable researchers and stakeholders to identify the costs and benefits of various implementation options, to address problems encountered in initial administration and to field test procedures as necessary to ensure that the assessment instruments are measuring student learning accurately and consistently. The assessment system once established and institutionalized (by the end of the project) will be the basis for extensive policy discussions and potential resource reallocation. Capacity Building Pilot testing and Implementation of Assessment Activities Information Dissemination Total Project Costs Total Financing Required C. Project Description Summary 1. Project components (see Annex 2 for a detailed description and Annex 3 for a detailed cost breakdown) : By its very design, this project is experimentalidevelopmental in nature. Because of the specialized skills and the paucity of them in Pakistan, a sizeable portion of the credit will be used for learning- in terms of both skill acquisition and applied learning through the pilot testing and experimental procedures of the assessment design. As shown in the table below, the project would have three components: capacity building; pilot testing and implementation of the assessment activities; and information dissemination. 5.34 77.1 2.20 60.6 1.46 21.1 1.31 36.1 0.13 1.9 0.12 3.3 6.93 100.0 3.63 100.0 6.93 100.0 3.63 100.0 Component 1: Capacity Building Capacity building would be the main component, accounting for about 77.1% of the total project cost. The execution of an assessment is unusually technical in nature. Any one of a number of small mistakes can -5- Page 12 cause serious delays in implementation and, in the worst case, lead to meaningless findings. Therefore, a high-level technical assistance, including the services of a senior Technical Advisor, would be required to monitor and assist in all aspects of both central and provincial operations. This technical assistance (which initially should be on a full-time basis) would be placed in the NEAS office, and later in the "partnering" institution, but available to all of the partners. A "partnering" relationship will be established with a recognized international and / or local agency experienced in national assessment. This organization will provide "on-call'' support, linkages and guidance as the assessment design emerges. The partnering arrangement and long-term technical advisor will be put into place as soon as possible, but not later than the September 2003. See Annex 11 for the Terms of Reference for the Technical Advisor and Annex 12 for the expectations of support to be provided by the "partnering" organization. Eventually, a sustainable system will require a core team of full-time professionals with expertise in psychometrics, statistical analysis and information technology, supported by office staff, technicians and part-time assessment professionals, resource persons, training specialists, software/systems specialists, sampling specialists, scorerdmarkers and field workers for administration of assessments and data collection. Full-time staff of the NEAS and Provincial Education Assessment Center (PEACE)Units will be drawn mostly from existing MOE and provincial/Areas DOES personnel. In the early years of the project, when staff appointed from within the Government are being trained, there may be a need to hire experts and I or institutions on contract at market rates to meet the target of conducting the first round of assessments during February/March 2004. In addition, there will be a need to hire teachers and university students on a part-time basis for writing assessment instruments, administration of assessments, and scoring/marking of assessments. Above all, there will be a need to monitor the implementation of NEAS for quality control through trained Quality Control Monitors and the various technical committees described in Annex 13. To ensure long-term sustainability, the capacity of Pakistani officials will have to be developed in critical technical areas in each of the provinces and areas, and in sufficient numbers of staff members to institutionalize the assessment process over the long-run. The flexibility of the project instrument will permit a two stage implementation strategy. At stage I, emphasis will be placed on quickly developing a core instrument for piloting during the first year. At stage 11, to overlap with or to begin soon after stage I, one or more "partnering" relationships will be established between an intemational entity (university or assessment organization) and a local university or research organization. It is extremely important that technical assistance be internally consistent and mutually reinforcing. It is anticipated that, through this arrangement, an international organization can be contracted to provide: (i) short-term technical assistance; (ii) short-term training courses (3-6 weeks); (iii) faculty development through curriculum design and instruction; (iv) "on-line" I on-demand technical support services; (v) access to intemational literature on assessment and best practices; and (vi) sandwich training programs and "on-campus" visits and internships. To the extent possible, training of project staff would be carried out in Pakistan, possibly through one or two National/Provincial universities or educational institutes. It is expected that training of staff, especially long-term training, would emphasize training staff of the partnering organization to ensure that the capacity of that organization is sufficiently developed. The project provides for a limited number (10) of opportunities to pursue MA degrees or equivalent training abroad, but that number may be reduced in preference for larger numbers who might be trained under a "sandwich" program of equal length (local-overseas-local) with a degree being awarded by the partnering institution(s). Although training and skills development will take place largely in-country, it is anticipated that -6- Page 13 approximately one individual per regiodarea will obtain the equivalent of a Master’s Degree in some aspect of assessment over the life of the project. Ideally, the overseas training would be coordinated through the partnering organization so as to minimize the length of time spent abroad and to ensure direct applicability of skills and effective application of newly acquired capacities. In addition to regular cross-provincial technical review meetings, 2-3 day workshops and seminars on technical issues will be held over the course of the project. The course offerings will be coordinated by the Curriculum Wing and developed and offered in consultation with the partnering organization or with independent technical assistance as needed. Courses and technical assistance will help to develop not only good instruments but also strengthen analytic skills and linkages to policy makers and planners. Among the specific skills which will be developed under the project are: (i) general measurement concepts and theory; (ii) item writing; (iii) item analysis; (iv) item response theory; (v) item banking; (vi) sampling; (vii) data analysis; (viii) questionnaire construction and administration ; (ix) data coding, cleaning and file creation; and (x) data presentation and report production. The heavy emphasis on training in conjunction with piloting procedures and instruments is due to the highly technical nature of testing and assessment. Training will focus on skill areas including: Planning and design of assessment systems and instruments Data analysis Management and administration Statistical sampling and bias Reporting, dissemination and feedback Information marketing and building stakeholder confidence Pilot testing, evaluation and system sustainability Use and application of technology in assessment Component 2: Pilot Testing and Implementation of Assessment Activities This component would account for about 21.1% of the total project cost. In light of the complexity of population characteristics across provinces in Pakistan, and in light of a weak technical infrastructure with little experience in this type of assessment, pilot experiments will be required to determine what will produce the desired, valid results, and what process is most implementable. The project will also allow technical experts to pilot instruments to ensure that language and other potential contextual differences which might affect performance results are addressed to reduce assessment bias to a minimum. During the initial stages of the project, options for ensuring effective working arrangements and linkages among the provinces will be tested, measurement items developed at the provincial level will be pooled, then shared and evaluated for inclusion in the national pool of assessment items. The criteria used for developing sampling frames will be discussed and agreed in order to ensure that assessment results can be generalized to agreed sub-populations and are representative of the national cohort of Grade 4 and Grade 8 children. Options for implementing the assessment instrument in the field will be explored under the project. Most students in Pakistan are not familiar with multiple choice type questions or with machine readable scoring sheets. For this purpose, a modest amount of equipment and books will be purchased to facilitate the work of staff involved in instrument development, piloting and data analysis. The acquisition of computers and optical scanners will be an important part of the piloting phase of assessment. -7- Page 14 Two rounds of grade-4 and one round of grade-8 level assessments would be conducted during 2003-08, in addition to piloting of achievement tests and other related instruments, as per the following schedule. Date Feb. /March 2004 Feb. /March 2005 Feb. /March 2006 Test Grade Test Type Grade 4 (two subjects) Pilot Grade 4 (two subjects) Test Grade 4 (two subjects) Pilot Test Grade 4 (all four subjects) Feb. /March 2007 Feb. /March 2008 'Consideration will be given to establishing a baseline for grade 4 in four subjects by May 06 and conduct, in February 08, second cycle of Grade 4 tests in four subjects. Also some measure may be included to learn which test items were actually covered in the class by the teacher during hidher teaching. A sample of students identified by the Federal Bureau of Statistics (FBS) would be tested at the end of Grade 4 and grade 8 in each provincelarea of Pakistan. The tests will be administered in a standardized way to ensure fairness for individual students. After piloting, a revision would take place of tests, instruments for gathering background data, test administration process, effectiveness of the training, student sampling and its size, dissemination process and feedback. Care will be taken to ensure that revisions do not impact on the monitoring of achievement over time. When the capacity of the government agencies is developed through this project, NEAS should be able to administer tests to the FebruaryIMarch 2005 cohort of grade-4 students reaching grade-8 in FebruaryIMarch 2009. Grade 8 (two subjects) Pilot Grade 8 (two subjects) Test Grade 8 (two subjects) Pilot Test Test Grade 4 (all four subjects)* Grade 8 (all four subiects) In the early years of the project, the center will have an edge in human capacity and is likely to produce more substantial assessment reports. Indeed, for the pilot study there may be only a single report produced by NEAS, and for the first full cycle of assessments some of the provinces may decide that analysis of assessment data is beyond their capacity and simply transfer the raw data to NEAS. However, every effort will be made to strengthen the capacity of the PEACEs, so that by the end of the project they will have equivalent capacity relative to NEAS. All the main stakeholders (students, teachers, parents, educational supervisors, managers, curriculum developers, subject experts, material writers, statisticians, etc.) would be associated with these efforts and their participation would be assured at appropriate stages of conducting a cycle of assessment. Component 3: Information Dissemination This component would account for about 1.9% of the total project cost. Through this component, the project will facilitate information dissemination about assessment to stakeholders in advance of the actual assessment to explain its purpose and to provide insight and reassurance about its intended uses. Information dissemination would also take place in order to make findings known to stakeholders, media and elected officials so that they understand what the findings imply for administration of the education system, resource allocation and potentially effective policy shifts. -8- Page 15 2. Key policy and institutional reforms supported by the project: The first and the foremost reform to be supported by the project is institutionalizing a National Education Assessment System along with developing capacity of the provinceslareas of Pakistan to enable them to conduct sample-based periodic student assessments in line with the project objectives. This will be supported through a series of steps. The Technical Group Meetings that have been held over the last two years on NEAS have produced a highly detailed map of steps that need to be taken as part of the design and pilot-testing phase. Each step has been assigned to a specific group for carrying out, dates have been set for completion, and the task to be accomplished clearly delineated. In summary, the following major stages are involved in conducting one cycle of student assessment -- each pilot stage includes a number of critical steps, very briefly summarized below: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. Develop a comprehensive framework for assessment for grade 4 and 8 Agree on subject content I framework to be measured Agree on concept criterion for each subject Develop pool of assessment items for Grade 418 in four subjects Develop marking guides Pilot test individual items and sets of items to assess their individual and concept validity Agree on critical control variables to be used in data analysis Develop items for gathering background data Pilot test background items and effective means of collecting school, teacher and student level data Agree on objectives of data analysis and level of comparative analysis desired Define sampling universe and sampling frame Translate and pilot test instruments and background questions in relevant geographic areas Conduct full-scale pilot test Score answer sheets, perhaps using hand and machine modalities to test cost-effectiveness Aggregate data at provincial and national level Analysis of data carried out at national level and at provincial level as capacity permits. Prepare reports and recommend changes in content or procedures for the next round; disseminate findings Review the success of the provincial and national level coordination As stated above, it is expected that two rounds of grade4 and one round of grade-8 assessments in four subjects will be completed during the five years of this project in addition to the pilot rounds for each subject. Lessons learned from each cycle will be used to revise tests (giving due care that revisions do not impact on the monitoring of achievement over time), the logistics of administering them and providing security of results, and to develop ways and procedures to institutionalize the National Education Assessment System by developing capacity at federal and provincial1Area level. 3. Benefits and target population: The benefits of the project would critically depend on the utilization of the information to be generated by the new assessment system. Potentially, the benefits are quite substantial. The new data would provide policy-makers and government officials with a solid basis for taking decisions concerning resource allocation within the education sector. It would give guidance to teachers and their supervisors about the substantive areas that need to be emphasized within the curriculum. It would also provide households with a much better basis for gauging the value of the education being provided to their children. Thus, as the system takes hold, appropriate use of the data it generates would result in a better quality of education for the country’s children. -9- Page 16 By FebruaryIMarch 2005, baseline data for Grade 4 in language and mathematics should be available. The quality of the instruments developed and the effectiveness with which they are administered and the resulting data analyzed will be the measure of how much of an impact the project has had. Each pilot test and full test will serve as independent monitors of how well the outcomes of the project have been achieved. Training and technical assistance reports will provide further independent assessments of whether the desired outcomes are being achieved. The target population, to start with, would be a carefully selected sample of all the children in grades 4 and 8 in government schools and community schools. The population may include, at a later stage, children of the same grades from private schools, NGO schools, and other schools. 4. Institutional and implementation arrangements: The project will be implemented over a period of five years (2003-08). The NEAS involves very close collaboration between the federal Ministry of Education and the Provincial and Area Departments of Education (DOES). Overall, coordination is the responsibility of the Federal government under the umbrella of the broader Education System Reform initiative led by the Federal Secretary of Education. The various work groups that will be responsible for the design and implementation of the system and for its piloting are summarized in the chart which follows. See also Annex 13 for a detailed description of the responsibilities of various work groups. Simply stated, the primary responsibilities are distributed as follows: Federal government (CW): Overall design and administration; consolidation of items for use in instrument; leadership in pre-administration information campaign; national level reporting and policy formation; coordination of technical assistance and training; Partnering /Implementing institution(s) (Pakistan): item development, technical assistance, training, coordination of pilot testing and analysis; setting standards for administration and sampling, help in conducting assessment; Provincial/area governments: Item development for pooling at the national level, providing list of schools and other data for sampling at national level; help in collecting background data of sample schoolsistudents etc.; test administration, consolidation of provincial data; analysis of provincial data, dissemination of provincial findings. -10- Page 17 Functions of Various Work Groups NEAS Statistical Group Review Provincial School Censuses Propose sample designs Monitor quality of data Conduct national analysis NEAS Coordination through National Planning & Coord. Committee Develop overall framework Review all instruments Facilitate fieldwork Facilitate report preparation PEACE Analytic Group Prepare census of all public and private schools in the province ’ Manage province data input Clean data and send copy to NEAS Coordinate analysis of province data 4 PEACE Coordination through Prov. Planning & Coord. Committee Coordinate provincial activities Manage field work Supervise provincial reports NEAS Subject Groups Coordinate review of curriculum objectives Finalize assessment instruments Compile results from provincial pilot studies and redesign instruments Analyze curriculum achievement by subject and PEACE Subject Groups Review cumculum objectives Draft items for each subject to share with NEAS Pilot items Propose Revisions Prepare provincial reports on curriculum achievement objectives I\ J NEAS Background Data Group Coordinate review ofpolicy issues Design common background instruments Coordinate analysis of pilot study coordinate revision Analyze relations of background variables with achievement 4 B i PEACE Background Data Group Identify major policy issues to be addressed in study Draft background data instruments Pilot common instrument Propose Revisions Analyze relations of background variables with achievement Technical Assistance Provide technical assistance/reviews for all phases of work at national and provincial levels Facilitates acquisition of relevant literature Conducts on-the-job training in instrument design, data file linkages, data entry and cleaning, item analysis, and statistical analysis The MoE constituted, through a notification dated March 17, 2003, with proper representation from the GOP, Provincial governments and the Azad Jammu and Kashmir government, the following committees and groups with their specific TORS: (i) National Planning and Coordination Committee; (ii) Assessment Instrument Development Groups; (iii) Background Data Working Group; and (iv) Statistical Working Group. Overall management and Coordination: The Curriculum Wing (CW) of the Ministry will provide the overall coordination of the NEAS effort, drawing on the advice of the National Planning and Coordination Committee composed of representatives from the Federal Ministry and each of the provinces. This coordination, represented in the diagram above, includes overall coordination as well -11 - Page 18 as coordination of the assessment of achievement in four subject areas, examination of school and background factors that are believed to influence achievement, sampling design, analysis, report-writing, and dissemination of findings to all stakeholders. Provincial Educational Assessment Centers (PEACE) will be set up in each of the provinces for the actual implementation of the fieldwork and for the preparation and analysis of the data collected in each province. The Joint Education Advisor (JEA) of the CW will be ex-officio Project Director to be assisted by a full time Coordinator. The Bureau of Curriculum in Balochistan, Directorate of Curriculum and Teacher Education in North West Frontier Province, University of Education in Punjab, Directorate of Research and Assessment in Sindh, Directorate of Curriculum Research and Development in Azad Jammu and Kashmir, and Directorates of Education in Federally Administered Tribal Areas, Islamabad Capital Territory, and Northern Areas will be the institutions responsible for ground level implementation of NEAS. The focal persons in these institutions have already been identified by the provinciallarea departments of education. Prior to the conclusion of each fiscal year of the project, the National Planning and Coordination Committee will be expected to prepare for the Secretary of Education (in his capacity as head of the Education System Reform Committee) an annual plan for the forthcoming year with a detailed time line and a report of all work accomplished over the past year (including attachment of published reports). The Secretary, as head of the ESR implementation, will be responsible for monitoring the project. The Coordinator of NEAS, with input from the Technical Advisor and the "partnering organization" will also be required to make quarterly reports to the ESR, per agreed format and with a focus on implementation progress against benchmarks, and fiscal reporting. The Bank will participate in National Planning and Coordination Committee meetings as appropriate and will assess the quality of learning embedded in the project through its semi-annual supervision missions and through regular contact with the Project Director and lead Technical Advisor. D. Project Rationale 1. Project alternatives considered and reasons for rejection: Pilot only in Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT) and create demonstration effect The Education Sector Reform (ESR) Action Plan envisaged the Islamabad Capital Territory to serve as a model to implement the ESR components including student assessment. The purpose was that the Islamabad Capital Territory as a model would demonstrate to provinces and areas how the Plan could be implemented effectively focusing on quality. This alternative was not considered appropriate as the Islamabad Capital Territory, mostly urban in nature, is not truly representative of the country given the complexity of population characteristics across provinces and areas in Pakistan. Piloting in a single province or selected provinces willing to participate The possibility of initiating the process in a single province or selected provinceslareas was considered and rejected for the following two reasons. First, if large provinces like Punjab or Sindh opted not to participate, there would again not be a true representation of all the sections of population and the assessment system could not be called a national system. Second, several provinciallarea specific student assessment studies were conducted in the past as discussed in Annex 14 but the function of educational assessment could neither shape up as a national system nor was it institutionalized at provincial level. - 12- Page 19 Sample of all types of schools versus Government schools Although it is desirable to include all types of schools to draw a representative sample at national level, it was decided to include only government and community managed schools to start with in view of capacity considerations and uncertainty about the willingness of private, NGO and other schools to participate. Later on, when capacity is developed and awareness is created about the desirability of educational assessment and appropriate work is done to remove fears of the private sector, all the remaining schools can be included in a phased manner. Leave this activity for other donors to finance The possibility of leaving NEAS for other donors, especially bilateral donors, to finance in view of very small financing requirements was considered. However, it was decided against it because both the donors and the government wanted the Bank's involvement in view of the work done by the Bank on educational assessment. It was also decided to involve other donors who are willing to become partners in establishing NEAS in Pakistan. DFID is co-financing the project. DFID and UNICEF have helped the government in holding most of the TGMs and financing training of government staff in student assessment outside the project. UNESCO has helped government in conducting a study to meet EFA requirements. 2. Major related projects financed by the Bank and/or other development agencies (completed, ongoing and planned). Following are the projects financed by the BanMIDA in the education sector, which also included assessing student learning achievement as a component: Sector Issue Bank-financed (a) Increase participation in rural and urban slum primary schools, with emphasis on girls; (b) enhance delivery of primary education; and (c) improve student learning achievement. Improve the: (a) access, equity and efficiency in primary education, particularly for girls; (b) quality of the learning environment in all primary schools; and (c) organizational framework, planning and management of the educational system. (a) Increase access and participation in middle schooling in rural areas and urban slums, especially among girls; (b) improve education quality and raise student learning and achievement; and (c) strengthen related policy-making, planning, management, monitoring and evaluation capacities. Improve: (a) access, equity and Project Vovember 1990, Sindh Primary Zducation Development ?roject (IDA Cr. 2102-PAK) - Yosed on 06/30/1999. luly 1993, Balochistan Primary 3ducation Project (IDA Cr. 1482-PAK) -Closed on 12/31/1999. Llarch 1993, Punj ab Middle Schooling Project (IDA Cr. 1354-PAK) - Closed on 16/30/2000. lune 1995, North West Frontier Latest Supervision (PSRI Ratings (Bank-fjnancec Implementation Progress (IP) S U S S projects only) Development Objective (DO) S U S S - 13- Page 20 efficiency in primary education, particularly for girls; (b) quality of the learning environment for all schools; (c) organizational framework and the planning, management, assessment and monitoring capacity of the provincial education system; and (d) village-level beneficiary involvement in all phases of primary education service delivery. (a) Improve the quality of education, increase learning achievement and improve completion rates in elementary education; (b) increase access, equity, and retention of students, particularly girls; (c) strengthen institutional capacity to plan and manage educational programs; and (d) encourage greater community and NGO participation. (a) Increasing access to essential social services, especially for women, girls and the poor, and improving the quality of these services; (b) building government capacity for planning, implementing and monitoring social service programs; (c) increasing transparency and improving governance; (d) increasing government expenditures on essential services and promoting fiscal sustainability; and (e) xcouraging community, NGO and private sector in the delivery of social services. Ither development agencies ADB 'rovince Primary Education 'roject (IDA Cr. 2687-PAK) - Josed on 12i3 112000. :ebruary 1998, Northern {ducation Project (IDA Cr. !992-PAK) - on-going I closing late is 0613012003. une 1998, Social Action 'rogram Project 11 (IDA Cr. 1050-PAK) - Closed on l6/30/2002. lupported supporting Girls 'rimary Education Project I & [, Middle Schooling project in me provinces of Pakistan. WO Ratings: HS (Highly Satisfactory), S (Satisfactory), U (Unsatisfactory), HL Highly Unsatisfa There have been no separate TA projects in the education sector. However, student assessment was included as an important part of the above projects. Other donors have also been funding one-time assessment studies which are discussed in Annex 14. Experience from other sectors regarding TA projects is not very encouraging. TA projects are generally not welcome, as they are considered synonymous with "wasting money on consultancies". There is also a very cumbersome procedure now in place for hiring of consultants by government ministries--adding to implementation woes. The situation is slightly better if implementing agencies are autonomous bodies. However, in the case of NEAS, the GoP has welcomed the idea of a TA project because of the nature and - 14- Page 21 importance of national assessment and recognizing the need for capacity building. 3. Lessons learned and reflected in the project design: A number of studies of learning achievement have been conducted in Palustan from 1984 to date. Most of them are summarized in Annex 14 of the PAD. In addition, the Academy of Education Planning and Management (AEPM) carried out a sample survey of achievement among Grade 4 students to meet the country requirements of EFA Assessment 2000 (AEPM, 2000). With the exception of UNESCO studies, assessment activities have tended to be part of individual development projects in various provinces / areas rather than a national level effort. All of these studies have weaknesses in, at least, five major areas which limit the conclusions that can be drawn and makes the comparison of student achievement over time difficult: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Different Grades at different times: These studies were conducted for different grades (1-3,4-5, 3 & 5, 5, 6, 7 or 8 only) at different times with little effort to relate findings to the results of previous studies or grades. Instrument development: The framework for constructing the items is rarely reported, so it is difficult to evaluate curriculum coverage. A single form of a test paper is normally used, rather than multiple spiraled blocks. This increases the risk of copying, introduces order effects (items that come late in the test tend to get less attention than those at the beginning) and limits the possible coverage of curriculum objectives. Sample design: There is no generally-used sampling frame. The sampling frames used by these studies tend to cover Government schools well and others much less well. Community schools and private schools tend to be omitted. In many cases too many primary sampling units (PSUs) may be covered, in an effort to make assessment as participatory as possible. As a result, too few schools are taken from any PSU to allow adequate representation of diverse school types. Weighting according to size is not used in determining the probability of selection and in combining results. Administration: Administration was frequently devolved to local educators, at the district or tehsil level. This increases the risk of inconsistent or lax administration. Training and supervision of administrators is not normally reported in sufficient detail to judge its rigor. Analysis and reporting: The emphasis in the reports is on total scores, normally expressed as percentages. These provide little useful information. For example, does a mean score of 5 1% in math in a North West Frontier Province test administered in 1995 relate to the curriculum goals mastered by the average student? Is it evidence of any change in standards since other (BRIDGES) testing, which produced a mean score of 26% in the same subject? It is impossible to say. One possible exception to these limitations is the study carried out in 1995 by the Pakistan Psychological Foundation (Pervez, 1995). This study was sponsored by UNICEF and used the ABC (Assessment of Basic Competencies) test, versions of which have also been used elsewhere in South Asia. However, the ABC test is not based directly on Pakistani curriculum, and tests only very limited competencies. Therefore, although the study is suggestive of low standards of achievements, it does not relate specifically to Pakistani curriculum goals. The work cited above is often interesting and informative. However, there is little national experience in conducting cross-provincial, curriculum based assessments and there is very limited technical capacity to carry out this kind of studies in Pakistan. The design of the project has benefited from the above lessons / findings. Although other projects also aimed at capacity development for assessment to some extent, it did not happen because assessment was one among several components of the projects, and therefore it could not get the attention which it deserved. This time, a lot of background work has been done over the last five years by the government to bring all stakeholders on - 15- Page 22 board in realizing the importance of student assessmentisystem evaluation. However, ownership of the project remains weak and sustainability is also not guaranteed. The Bank is proceeding with this project with the understanding that it is a high risk-high reward activity. 4. Indications of borrower commitment and ownership: The MoE has made a written request to the Bank through the Economic Affairs Division. Commitment exists at senior management and policy making level including the Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission and the Secretary Planning Division. An amount of Rs 50 million has been allocated in the PSDP for the project. Provincialiarea PC-Is have been approved and staff appointed. The federal PC-I has been approved by the Central Development Working Party (CDWP) but it has yet to be approved by the ECNEC. However, there is less ownership at the MoE level, in particular at the senior levels below the Education Minister. 5. Value added of Bank support in this project: This is a first project of its kind in the country that aims at establishing an institutional arrangement for national education assessment. The government values the Bank's work on assessment. The Bank helped government initiate a process of awareness creation in 1997 and mobilized other donor partners to help the government. This process has led to a realization among various stakeholders that establishment of a national assessment system is a major step towards improving the quality of education. E. Summary Project Analysis (Detailed assessments are in the project file, see Annex 8) 1. Economic (see Annex 4): Cost benefit C Cost effectiveness Other (specify) NPV=US$ million; ERR = % (see Annex 4) (i) good, i.e., use by a given person or entity of the data the system generates does not deprive other persons or entities of using the same data. In the absence of government intervention, a national education assessment system would not emerge, as private firms would have no incentives to invest in the collection of this type of information (unless contracted to do so by the Government). Thus, there is good justification for the government to organize and pay for the establishment and running of a national education assessment system. Justification for Government Intervention. A national education assessment system is a public (ii) Benefit-Cost Relationship. The benefits that society would derive from a well-functioning national education assessment system would depend on the use the data are given. However, though no quantification of benefits has been attempted here, it is likely that economic benefits would far exceed the relatively small costs of establishing and running the assessment system. (ii) located in the poorest areas of the country also rank low in terms of educational performance. This would provide the basis for possible geographical targeting of government spending on elementary education. Poverty Impact. A rigorous national education assessment system is likely to find that schools 2. Financial (see Annex 4 and Annex 5): NPV=US$ million; FRR = % (see Annex 4) Fiscal Impact: (i) Fiscal Impact. The project's net fiscal impact would be negative in the short-run (Le., it would - 16- Page 23 increase government spending without at the same time increasing revenues). Over the longer run, the net fiscal impact is likely to be positive, because of the taxes the government would collect on the additional earnings the labor force would accrue (or on the consumption made possible by those additional earnings). (ii) Very small budgetary allocations would be required to continue operating the program. However, it is not the cost but commitment to the objectives of the project which would matter. Financial sustainability of the new national education assessment system should not be a problem. 3. Technical: The project is technically sound as noted in various sections of the PAD. 4. Institutional: Institutional arrangements made for the project, as discussed in section C4, are adequate and a system is likely to be institutionalized under these arrangements at the end of the project provided the commitment and ownership improves. 4.1 Executing agencies: Curriculum Wing (CW) of the Ministry of Education will be the overall coordinator for implementing, monitoring and supervision of the project. The executing agencies in the provinces will include: Bureau of Curriculum of Balochistan; Directorate of Curriculum and Teacher Education, NWFP; University of Education, Punjab; Directorate of Research and Assessment, Sindh; Directorate of Curriculum Research and Development in AJK; and Directorates of Education in FATA, ICT and NAs. 4.2 Project management: Project management is discussed in detail in section C4. 4.3 Procurement issues: Procurement and Disbursement arrangements are specified in Annex 6. 4.4 Financial management issues: The Curriculum Wing (CW) of the Ministry of Education, Islamabad, and provincial / areas Departments of Education would be the implementing agencies of the project. CW, Islamabad, would coordinate activities of the other implementing agencies and it would be responsible for management of project funds and maintaining accounts of the project. The financial management system to be used for implementing the project is adequate. An Accounts Officer and a cashier would be in place at each of the implementing agencies by end-May 2003. Project accounts would be audited by the Auditor General of Pakistan in accordance with acceptable auditing standards. Annual audited financial statements would be submitted to the Bank within six months of the close of each financial year. Further details of the financial management arrangements are given in Annex 6 (B). 5. Environmental: 5.1 Summarize the steps undertaken for environmental assessment and EMP preparation (including consultation and disclosure) and the significant issues and their treatment emerging from this analysis. NA 5.2 What are the main features of the EMP and are they adequate? NA 5.3 For Category A and B projects, timeline and status of EA: Environmental Category: C (Not Required) Date of receipt of final draft: -17- Page 24 NA 5.4 How have stakeholders been consulted at the stage of (a) environmental screening and (b) draft EA report on the environmental impacts and proposed environment management plan? Describe mechanisms of consultation that were used and which groups were consulted? NA 5.5 What mechanisms have been established to monitor and evaluate the impact of the project on the environment? Do the indicators reflect the objectives and results of the EMP? NA 6. Social: 6.1 Summarize key social issues relevant to the project objectives, and specify the project's social development outcomes. Social issues include rural-urban imbalances and gender disparities in enrollment and curriculum biased in favor of male students. Following are among performance indicators to address these issues and to review achievement of social development outcomes: policy makers are informed to develop strategies and action plans for improving curriculum, teaching and resource allocation. Sample of schools and students will be selected from all government and community managed schools from all over the country. The sample will include boys and girls from rural and urban and within them from advantaged and disadvantaged sections of the society. The results of assessment would guide the policy makers and all stakeholders to plan targeted interventions to remove inequities and invest resources (human and financial) accordingly to achieve these objectives. 6.2 Participatory Approach: How are key stakeholders participating in the project? Most of key stakeholders (students, teachers, supervisors, managers, administrators, policy makers, curriculum developers, materials writers, parents) will participate in designing, piloting, and reviewing instruments. Others would participate through information marketing campaign and dissemination of findings of student assessment. 6.3 How does the project involve consultations or collaboration with NGOs or other civil society organizations? NA 6.4 What institutional arrangements have been provided to ensure the project achieves its social development outcomes? This is part of performance indicators as discussed in 6.1. 6.5 How will the project monitor performance in terms of social development outcomes? This is part of performance indicators as discussed in 6.1. 7. Safeguard Policies: - 18- Page 25 Involuntary Resettlement (OP/BP 4.12) Safety of Dams (OP 4.37, BP 4.37) Projects in International Waters (OP 7.50, BP 7.50, GP 7.50) Projects in Disputed Areas (OP 7.60, BP 7.60, GP 7.60)* 7.2 Describe provisions made by the project to ensure compliance with applicable safeguard policies. OP 7.60: Disputed Areas. A part of the proposed project will be carried out in AJK, a territory over which India and Pakistan have been in dispute since 1947. By supporting the project, IDA does not intend to make any judgment on the legal or other status of said territory or to prejudice the final determination of the parties' claims. n Yes NO {C Yes NO '3 Yes NO Yes (3 NO F. Sustainability and Risks 1. Sustainability: The sustainability of the NEAS will depend upon the quality of instruments developed; effective implementation; capacity building; and the level of participation of various stakeholder groups. One factor which will help in institutionalizing the system is the fact that GOP, the Provincial governments, and the government of Azad Jammu and Kashmir will fund the entire cost of staff salaries and allowances in their respective areas of responsibility. There is also a growing awareness of the importance of student assessment. However, ownership in the MoE and provinciallarea departments of education is weak, as indicated by long delays in meeting the basic requirements of the project, including appointment of staff in MoE. Strengthening this awareness and ownership would heavily depend upon the continued commitment of senior government officials and policy-makers. The quality of TA, especially of the partnering organization that would be helping the government in conducting assessments and developing capacity, would also play an important role. To facilitate sustainability and to institutionalize training capacity, the project will help to establish an overall certifying and accrediting body, which would award skill certificates in assessment and assure the quality of training provided by other agencies. 2. Critical Risks (reflecting the failure of critical assumptions found in the fourth column of Annex 1): The Bank is proceeding with this activity with the understanding that it is a high risk-high reward ctivity. +om Outputs to Objective Risk I Risk Rating TA may not effectively transfer requisite ;kills and knowledge Staff is not selected on the basis of job description and potential and there are delays in selection Pilots are not objectively conducted and findings are not transparently applied in revisions of instruments S H H Risk Mitigation Measure Performance of the TA will be monitored closely as per their TORS and specific outputs expected. Preference will be given to hire competent national experts. Staff of implementing agencies will be trained locally, internationally and through partnering arrangements to smoothly phase out TA and to minimize dependence upon them. TA will be employed in a support role only. Selection and appointment of key staff with clear job descriptions will be a major focus of project supervision. National Planning and Coordination Committee together with Background Data Working Group will ensure that pilots are conducted - 19- Page 26 Products are not appropriately targeted and do not anticipate stakeholders concerns All sample schools do not fully participate 4ppropriate procurement procedures are not followed From Components to Outputs Skills are not appropriately transferred to line staff 4ppropriate staff is not selected and issigned to jobs for which trained Staff is not trained in use of equipment md funds are not provided for naintenance ?otential stakeholders’ concerns are not :orrectly identified herall Risk Rating Risk Rating - H (High Risk), S (Substantial Ris M M M S H S M H M (Modest Risk), Ns objectively and findings are applied in revision of instruments. Assessment Instruments Development Group and the Background Data Working Group will take care of appropriate targeting of products and stakeholders concerns. Early involvement by the Federal Minister of Education and Secretary in information campaign has been promised and will help promote understanding of objectives and application of results. Higher number of schools than required would be selected under each category of schools to replace a school with similar category of school in case some selected school drop outs. An individual procurement consultant will be engaged for at least the first six months of the project and procurement staff would be properly trained to follow the WB guidelines and regular SOE review will be carried out by Bank staff. Conduct provinciallarea based trainings and seminars in addition to national level training workshops. Train second line staff in addition to front line personnel who can fill the gap in case of promotions, retirement or transfers on administrative grounds of the front line staff. Long-term training priority will be given to staff at partnering organization to strengthen and broaden core capacities. No-objection letters issued only for equipment deemed essential and for which trained staff are already in place. Pilot testing will include interviews with stakeholders, and reports from District Education Officers will be used to inform teachers about community concerns. Lessons have already been drawn from Northern Areas and Azad Jammu and Kashmir where assessment is already underway. Jegligible or Low Risk) 3. Possible Controversial Aspects: None. - 20 - Page 27 G. Main Loan Conditions 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. H, - -1 H Effectiveness Condition Standard legal conditions as required under Section 12.01 and 12.02 of the General Conditions applicable to Development Credit Agreements; and Effectiveness of DfID Grant Agreement between IDA, as administrator of the DfID Grant, and Pakistan. Other [classify according to covenant types used in the Legal Agreements.] The Government of Pakistan, Governments of the Provinces, and Government of Azad Jammu and Kashmir will (a) maintain a Financial Management System, including records and accounts and prepare financial statements, all in accordance with accounting standards acceptable to the Association, consistently applied, adequate to reflect its operations, resources and expenditures related to the project; (b) prepare and furnish to the Association financial monitoring reports (FMRs) and Procurement Monitoring Tables, in form and substance satisfactory to the Association; There will be a Government-IDA Mid-Term Review conducted by June 2006; The Government of Pakistan, Governments of the Provinces and Government of Azad Jammu and Kashmir will prepare and submit to IDA (a) annual Project Implementation Plans acceptable to the Bank no later than May 3 1 of each year or such later date as will be agreed between the Association and the Government of Pakistan, Governments of the Provinces, and Government of Azad Jammu and Kashmir; and (b) annual progress reports no later than June 30 of each year or such later date as may be agreed between the Association and the Government of Pakistan, Goverments of the Provinces, and Government of Azad Jammu and Kashmir; The Government of Pakistan, Governments of the Provinces, and Government of Azad Jammu and Kashmir will monitor and evaluate the implementation of the NEAS in accordance with the Performance Indicators and will provide the baseline data regarding these indicators within three months after the project becomes effective; and Implementation Completion Report of NEAS would be submitted by the Government of Pakistan, Governments of the Provinces, and Government of Azad Jammu and Kashmir to the Association within six months of the Project Closing Date. Readiness for Implementation 1. a) The engineering design documents for the first year's activities are complete and ready for the start of project implementation. I. b) Not applicable. 2. The procurement documents for the first year's activities are complete and ready for the start of project implementation. quality. 3. The Project Implementation Plan has been appraised and found to be realistic and of satisfactory r - 4. The following items are lacking and are discussed under loan conditions (Section G): -21 - Page 28 1. Compliance with Bank Policies 1. This project complies with all applicable Bank policies. 2. The following exceptions to Bank policies are recommended for approval. The project complies with all other applicable Bank policies. Team Leader Sector ManagerlDirector wntry ManagerlDirector - 22 - Page 29 Annex I: Project Design Summary PAKISTAN: National Education Assessment System Improve human development Strengthen governance and institutional development Project Development Objective: Assessment mechanisms and instruments designed and administered Administrative infrastructure established and capacity created for assessment administration, analysis and report writing with appropriate Fed-Prov. linkages Stakeholder knowledge and acceptance of assessment objectives and procedures increased Output from each Component: Sector Indicators: Increased enrollment in elementary schools Improved quality of schools and student learning Improved performance of teachers and school level monitoring Outcome I Impact Indicators: Valid, reliable baseline data (pilot test scores/measures) for Grade 4 and 8 in four subjects; Achievement overtime for grade 4 students in four subjects Technically proficient assessment staff who are on regular budget trained and in place; Partnering arrangements are in place; Pilot tests administered on schedule; Regular meetings of National Planning and Coordination Committee are held; strong and weak areas of student learning identified; policy makers informed to develop strategies and action plans for improving curriculum, teaching, and resource allocation; and equipment purchased Information marketing campaign activated; Workshops I seminars held for Stakeholders 3utput Indicators: Data Collection Strategy Sector1 country reports: EMIS, PIHS NEAS, PIHS, AAA NEAS, District level official reports Project reports: Analytical reports, Semiannual progress reports, Supervision reports, Consultants' reports Training reports; government annual budget books; semi-annual progress reports; Consultants' reports, National Planning and Coordination Committee Reports; analytical reports; SOEs Semi-annual rep0 s, Workshop reports Project reports: :from Goal to Bank Mission) [ncreases in learning and iccess are translated into job )pportunities and productivity. [mproved means to monitor earning and give stakeholders toice in reform :from Objective to Goal) Results deemed objective and lata collection, analysis i :eporting processes are :ransparent Staff remain in place for sufficient time to apply raining; Implementation :imetable adequate to ensure pality of process and product; md Equipment maintained md used for purpose intended; Sovemment and stakeholder icceptance of assessment as valid and reliable indicator of system performance (vs. individual) :from Outputs to Objective) - 23 - Page 30 Quality technical leadership provided in design and implementation of system Technical reports; semi annual reports Technical reports Semi-annual reports; supervision reports; product reviews High level technical skill zapacity of staff increased Full participation of all sampled schools TA effectively transfers requisite skills and knowledge Products appropriately targeted and stakeholder concerns anticipated YEAS offices sufficiently :quipped to carry out all issessment functions [nstruments and procedures ire valid and implementation xoven effective Base line data collected from Full scale administration Procedures in place to link hture surveys to baseline data Enhanced stakeholder iwareness of objectives and xocedures of NEAS 'roject Components I Sub-components: I. Capacity Building: (a) rechnical Assistance :b) Training c) Development of yrofessional teams and mproving working mvironment !. Pilot testing and mplementation: (a) Pilot esting b) Implementation 40 weeks of ST international TA; 3 years of LT resident TA; 4 years of support by "Partnering" institution; and Around 250 weeks of ST national TA 60 weeks of ST in-country training; 200 weeks of ST international training; 40 person years of LT in-country training ( 21 year); 40 person years of LT international training Purchase computer systems, optical scanners, and refurbishment of offices as required; Books, periodicals, special training, speakers, etc. provided 2 pilots of each instrument for each subject and grade; Effective management and coordination structure in place (including detailed time line and description of responsibilities) 2 rounds of Grade 4 and one round of Grade 8 assessment A plan for equating studies completed; Media campaign, brochures and information bulletins produced, audience appropriate reports of findings produced and disseminated Inputs: (budget for each component) $1.17m $2.12 m $2.05 m $1.28 m EO. 18m Consultant reports, supervision missions, Semi-annual plans Training reports, supervision missions SOEs, supervision mission reports rechnical reports; Semi-annual reviews TA effectively transfers requisite skills and knowledge Staff selected on basis ofjobs and potential; no delays in selection (1) Timely procurement with goods used for intended purposes; and (b) appropriate procurement procedures are followed Pilots are objectively conducted with findings transparently applied in revisions of instruments I Project reports: I (from Components to 1. Semi-annual progress reports; consultant reports 2. Training evaluation; performance reviews 3. Semi-annual progress reports; research reports, issessment reports 1. Semi-annual progress reports; Assessment reports 5. SOEs, supervision reports Outputs) Skills are appropriately transferred to line staff Appropriate staff selected and assigned to jobs for which trained Staff trained in the use of facilities and their maintenance Funds provided for equipment maintenance and other essential minor costs - 24 - Page 31 3. Information dissemination $0.13m 6. Media products; semi-annual reports; supervision missions I Potential stakeholder concerns correctly identified. - 25 - Page 32 Annex 2: Detailed Project Description PAKISTAN: National Education Assessment System The project will have the following specific components, each of which will be piloted, evaluated, and modified as necessary to achieve maximum effectiveness before the end of the project. The cost estimates indicated against each component below include contingencies and GOP's, GoProvinces' and GoAJK's share of financing. Year-wise summary of Project Costs with sub-components is given at Annex 15. Summary of costs with financing plan for the GoProvinces, GoAJK, FATA and NAs are given at Annex 16 which include the costs for the following sub-components: (a) Provincial workshops, seminars, meetings etc.; (b) Goods (Equipment & Furniture); and (c) Incremental operational costs (other than staff salary and allowances). By Component: Project Component 1 - US$5.34 million Capacity Building: (Training, Technical assistance, development ofprofessional teams and improving working environment): First of all, training and technical assistance will be the primary sources of learning and strategy generation. This program of assessment is unusually technical in nature. The TA and training need to be very specialized and in-depth. NEAS would also develop institutional capacity of MoE (CW) as well as the provinceslareas through their respective PC-1 s to monitor the standards of education in the country, a responsibility for which the CW holds a legal mandate. The new assessment system will provide credible evidence of how schools are performing to local officials and other stakeholders to enable them to identify areas of weaknesses and thereafter influence the elementary education process. The TA and training will help to ensure that the assessment system is both well institutionalized and sustainable at the end of the project. Over the life of the project, training will be provided in approximately the following amounts: 0 0 0 0 0 15 person months of in-country short-term training (workshops, seminars, etc.); 40 person months of in-country certificate I degree training; Around 200 person weeks for participation in international symposia, conferences and study tours; 10 persons (20 person years) for overseas degree (M.A.) training); and 10 persons (20 person years) for "sandwich" degree training. Before any major technical decisions are taken, that may prove to be misguided, it is important that the National Planning and Coordination Committee for NEAS have first-hand experience of how assessments are conducted, and assessment results used. Under the project, a selected group of potential test specialists should observe at first hand the practice of national assessment, and the use of national assessment results in improving educational quality. This group will consist of key members of the National Planning and Coordination Committee for NEAS, covering as far as possible both the Federal and the ProvincesIAreas. The project will enable them to visit at least two countries, as far as possible at a similar level of economic and social development to Pakistan, where different forms of national assessment are carried out, and the results used in monitoring and improving educational quality. They will observe the process of national assessment, and meet with personnel participating at all levels in the process of national assessment. In-country and training in foreign institutions through seminars, workshops, short and long term courses, and study tours will be conducted focusing on skill areas including: 0 0 Data analysis 0 Management and administration; Planning and design of assessment systems and instruments; - 26 - Page 33 0 Statistical sampling and bias 0 Reporting, dissemination and feedback; 0 0 Information marketing and building stakeholder confidence; Pilot testing, evaluation and system sustainability Use and application of technology in assessment Building professional capacity in the present cadre of NEAS staff is an essential precondition for successful delivery of a NEAS. However, it is also important that when the current individuals leave their posts, there should be provision for identifying and supplying the professional development needs of their successors. Preference for long-term training will be given to stafflfaculty at the local partnering institution to develop long-term concentrated capacity in assessment-related skills. The project will help to ensure that: 0 0 0 job descriptions and personnel specifications adequately define the duties of the post holder, and the abilities required to carry them out; mechanisms for assessing skills of individuals against job specifications will be developed, and professional development needs identified; and a comprehensive training program for delivering the required training and support will be designed and implemented. To ensure sustainability and to institutionalize training capacity, the project will help to establish I strengthen an overall certifying and accrediting body, which would award skill certificates in assessment and, while it might not provide all the training, assure the quality of training provided by other agencies. This body could vary from province to province. As a whole, the NEAS project will implement a plan for developing local training capacity, and options for supporting this through partnering with a suitable international institution (like ETS of USA and IIEP of Paris or local institution of international standards, if possible) will be explored. Technical Assistance (TA): Short-term and long-term, national and international TA will be a critical element needed to provide technical inputs for developing and managing the assessment system and for training a critical mass of professionals to develop institutional capacity for assessment on a long-term basis, as an integral part of the education system. TA will be provided through Long Term (LT) and Short Term (ST) TA which will be largely coordinated by and offered through a "partnership" arrangement expected to be negotiated between a single international institution or small consortium and one or more relevant institutions in Pakistan. These contracts are expected to be signed and operational by the September 2003. The technical assistance component will consist of the following services in the approximate amounts indicated: 0 0 36 person months of Long-term TA; 10 person months (40 wks.) of ST international TA Around 250 person weeks of short-term national TA; and 48 months of "on-line" support from partnering institution(s). To provide long-term sustainability to the NEAS, preference will be given to obtaining national and international TA through linkages with institutions that have expertise in student assessment, preferably in a developing country context. There will be need for development of professional linkages with institutions which have regional, national and international expertise in assessment expertise, particularly in the early years of the project. Development of core professional teams and improving working environment: Two other important sub-components of the capacity building will be (a) the development of core professional teams in NEAS, -27- Page 34 PEACEs; (b) assessment cells in the areas (NA, AJK, FATA, ICT) and provision of essential basic facilities to these centers/cells; and (c) strengthening of accounting, procurement and audit system. The costs would include: (i) salary and allowances of core staff and remuneration to subject experts associated with specific assignments such as monitoring; and (ii) renovation of buildings, refurbishing offices, and operation and maintenance. Each of the provinces and areas, as well as the Federal government has committed to providing staff to fill eight core positions on each PEACE or NEAS team. These core positions include: (i) subject specialist (4); (ii) system analyst; (iii) PEACE coordinator; (iv) computer operator / programmer; and (v) assessment expert. The Federal and Provincial governments have agreed to pick up the full salary burden of these positions on their own budgets. The Bank financing would be zero for incremental salaries so that government has full ownership in terms of provision of financing. However, Bank would finance the incremental operating costs on declining basis. The project will also provide equipment necessary to realize the basic administrative requirements for assessment production, analysis, and dissemination. This will include: (i) equipment (computers, printers, optical readers, fax machines, and type writers etc.); (ii) furniture, books and journals, stationary and office supplies; and (iii) printing of all materials. Initial capitalization of equipment necessary for carrying out the assessment design and analysis activities will be heaviest in the first two years of the project. It is anticipated that funds will be required in each province/area for acquisition of several commuters, minor remodeling required to house the new unit, printers, a photocopier and miscellaneous equipment. For the remaining years of the project, funds will be required for additional equipment purchases such as optical scanners, equipment repair and upgrading, purchase of assessment-related books and materials for reference purposes, access to on-line sources through the inter-net, and for communications costs for interaction with the partner institutions for the project. Project Component 2 - US$1.46 million Pilot Testing and Implementation: The pilot testing and implementation component would include the following: (a) develop comprehensive framework for grade 1-8; (b) develop assessment items for grade-4 and grade-8 (Language, math, science, social/life skills); (c) develop instruments for gathering background data; (d) design sample; (e) administer assessment; (0 enter data; (g) carry out analysis; (h) prepare reports; (i) establish student achievement benchmarks and develop subsequent periodic assessments, including data on background variables or the 'conditions of learning'; ('j) establish NEAS Unit in the CW (MOE) with assessment professionals, support staff and facilities, office space, equipment, supplies; and (k) coordinate with and support ProvinciaVArea assessment activities to develop an integrated national assessment system. The costs would include costs for all development activities, pilot testing, analysis and associated costs for administering and revising instruments to the point of reaching acceptable standards. In addition, it would also include costs relating to transportation, reproduction of instruments, TA/DA, salaries for temporary staff such as field workers and honoraria. Project Component 3 - US$ 0.13 million Information Dissemination: This component will consist of analysis, interpretation and dissemination of assessment information, findings, and recommendations to stakeholders for improving the quality of education through strategic interventions. National provincial conferences will be held to disseminate the findings of assessment. Pre-assessment publicity concerning the purposes of the exercise will be crucial to ensuring that the administration of the instrument occurs without problem and that the results are received as instructive and not threatening. The GOP, Goprovinces and GoAJK has agreed to spearhead an information - 28 - Page 35 dissemination campaign using national and local media, and inaugural events to educate stakeholders about the purpose and utility of assessment. When results are available, it will be imperative that results are published, discussed, and reviewed for policy implications among various stakeholders Research and evaluation efforts in Pakistan have traditionally suffered from poor dissemination and under-utilization. Thus, national conferences will be held to: (a) discuss the recommendations; (b) identify strategies for raising student learning achievement; and (c) propose achievement targets for the second cycle of assessment. Provincial conferences will be held to: (i) review national targets and set provincial targets; (ii) develop an action plan for the province; and (iii) propose monitoring indicators for schools and districts. PEACEs would develop a rolling program of in-service training days for teachers on: designing a test and specifications, identifying abilities beyond the recall level, assessing a range of abilities (one day in each subject). - 29 - Page 36 Annex 3: Estimated Project Costs PAKISTAN: National Education Assessment System Goods Incremental Costs Consu Itan t Services Training, Workshops and Seminars 1 Total Proiect Costs Capacity Building Pilot testing and Implementation Information dissemination Total Baseline Cost Physical Contingencies 0.17 0.38 0.55 1.61 0.00 1.61 0.22 0.94 1.16 1.97 1.64 3.61 3.97 2.96 6.93 2.28 1.39 0.12 3.79 0.07 0.11 2.81 0.00 0.00 2.81 0.06 0.09 5.09 1.39 0.12 6.60 0.13 Price Contingencies 0.20 Total Project Costs' 3.97 2.96 6.93 Total Financing Required 3.97 2.96 6.93 Total Financing Required I 3.97 I 2.96 I 6.93 I i Identifiable taxes and duties are 1.03 (US$m) and the total project cost, net of taxes, is 5.9 (US$m). Therefore, the project cost sharing ratio is 61.55 % of total project cost net of taxes. - 30 - Page 37 Annex 4: Cost Benefit Analysis Summary PAKISTAN: National Education Assessment System Summary of Benefits and Costs: Provided the data generated by the new assessment system are properly utilized, the resulting economic benefits would be large. There would be efficiency gains in government education expenditure resulting from better resource allocation decisions (made possible by the new data), which would enable a given output of the government's education system to be produced at a lower cost to society. And, to the extent that proper utilization of the new data eventually resulted in a better quality of education and better skills acquired through schooling, the future productivity and hence the earnings of school graduates should also be higher than in the without-project situation. Thus, although no quantification of benefits has been attempted here, it is likely that economic benefits would far exceed the relatively small costs of establishing and running the new assessment system. Main Assumptions: NA Sensitivity analysis / Switching values of critical items: NA -31 - Page 38 Annex 5: Financial Summary PAKISTAN: National Education Assessment System Years Ending IMPLEMENTATION PERIOD 1 Year1 1 Year2 I Year3 I year4 I Year 5 I Year6 1 Year 7 Total Financing Required Project Costs Investment Costs 0.5 1 .o 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 Recurrent Costs 0.3 1.3 1 .o 0.6 1.2 0.0 0.0 Total Project Costs 0.8 2.3 1.6 0.8 1.4 0.0 0.0 Total Financing 0.8 2.3 1.6 0.8 1.4 0.0 0.0 Financing I B RDll D A 0.4 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.9 0.0 0.0 Government 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 Central 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Provincial 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Co-financiers 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 User FeeslBeneficiaries 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total Project Financing 0.9 2.2 1.6 0.8 1.4 0.0 0.0 Main assumptions: - 32 - Page 39 Annex 6(A): Procurement Arrangements PAKISTAN: National Education Assessment System Procurement 1. Procurement Capacitv Assessment Organization: A procurement capacity assessment was carried out which indicated that the staff of the implementing agencies, i.e. the Curriculum Wing of the Ministry of Education at the federal level and the Education Departments at the provincial/area level, who are responsible for carrying out procurement activities, are generally proficient with implementing low value procurement of goods but have had very limited exposure to the hiring of consultants. While some staff members are familiar with the procurement procedures of other donors such as the Asian Development Bank, they have no prior experience on IDA financed procurement. It was therefore agreed that a qualified and experienced individual Procurement Consultant will be engaged by the Curriculum Wing (CW) of the Ministry of Education (MoE) at the federal level, for at least the first six months of the project during which most of the procurement are expected to take place. The procurement consultant will serve as the focal point for all procurement activities under the project and will provide full procurement support to CW at the federal level as well as the provincial/area education departments, including assistance in the procurement planning and monitoring, preparation of Request for QuotatiodProposal documents, bid evaluations, contract award procedures. The consultant will also provide hands-on training to the implementing agency staff. The hiring of the procurement consultant will provide adequate resources to carry out the procurement activities foreseen under the project. IDA will assist in capacity building by conducting procurement training workshops for key procurement staff of the implementing agencies, during the first 3 months of the project, in order to improve their knowledge of IDA’S procurement procedures. Overall, capacity of the implementing agencies involved with procurement is “fair’ and the associated risks are in the “average” category. While the agencies’ staff has little experience in implementing IDA-financed procurement, this shortcoming will be mitigated with the hiring of an individual procurement consultant by the CW at the federal level and training provided by IDA. Prior review thresholds have been agreed that are commensurate to the level of risk. A Procurement Supervision mission will be carried out every six months and procurement ex-post reviews at least once every year. 2. Procurement Procedures There are some differences between the procurement procedures and practices of the implementing agencies and those of IDA; for example, pre-registration requirements, the time allowed for bid submission, price negotiations etc. Such differences will be resolved through the application of appropriate procurement procedures based on the Bank’ Guidelines which will be required to be followed on all procurement under the project and will take precedence in case of conflict with Government’s procedures. Goods to be financed under the project shall be procured in accordance with the Guidelines for Procurement under IBRD Loans and IDA Credits, January 1995, revised January 1999. Consultants’ Services financed under the project shall be procured in accordance with the Guidelines for Selection and Employment of Consultants by World Bank Borrowers, January 1997, revised January 1999 and May 2002. Consultants Services: The main contract will be with a consulting fidacademic research organization for technical assistance and training. This contract is expected to be procured by the CW at the federal - 33 - Page 40 level through Quality and Cost Based Selection (QCBS) procedures. Several short-term individual consultants, including the Procurement Consultant, an MIS Consultant and a few assessmenthechnical consultants, will be hired from time to time. Contracts with consulting firms estimated to cost more than $100,000 equivalent per contract shall be procured in accordance with QCBS procedures. Contracts estimated to cost less than US$lOO,OOO equivalent per contract may be procured through the method of Selection Based on Consultants’ Qualifications. Contracts with individual consultants will be procured in accordance with the provisions of Section V of the Consultants Guidelines. Goods: The goods to be procured under the project will include printing materials, office equipment and supplies, furniture, books, and journals. These goods are expected to be procured independently by each implementing agency at different times over the life of the project, and the resulting contract packages are expected to be of small value, ranging between US$4,00O-US$50,000 equivalent per contract for a total amount of approximately USS520,OOO. Such small contracts do not warrant national or international competition. Therefore, all procurement of goods under the project will be carried out through National Shopping procedures. 3. Procurement Planning Preliminary procurement plans for goods and consultants’ services have been prepared and are available in IDA files. Prior to issuing the first invitation for quotations in the case of goods and request for proposals in the case of consultants’ services, each implementing agency will prepare and provide for IDA’S review, updated annual procurement plans for Goods and Consultants’ Services. Procurement under the project will be carried out in accordance with the agreed procurement plan. Procurement plans will be closely monitored and updated on a quarterly basis. 4. Review of Procurement by the Bank The following contracts will be subject to IDA’S prior review: (a) The first Consultants’ Services contract with consulting firms, irrespective of value, to be procured by each implementing agency, and thereafter each contract with firms estimated to cost US$lOO,OOO or more. (b) The first consulting services contract with individual consultants, irrespective of value, to be procured by each implementing agency, and thereafter each contract with individuals estimated to cost US$ 50,000 equivalent or more. Post Review: All other contracts will be subject to Post-Review by IDA. Each implementing agency will send to the Bank on a quarterly basis, a list of all contracts subject to post-review. 5. Procurement Information and documentation Procurement information will be recorded and reported as follows: (a) Complete procurement documentation for each contract, including Request for Quotation documents, advertisements if any, quotations received, evaluation reports, letters of acceptance, contract agreements, securities, related correspondence etc., will be maintained by each implementing agency in an orderly manner so as to be readily available for audit. (b) Contract award information will be promptly recorded and contract rosters, in IDA’S sample format, - 34 - Page 41 maintained by each implementing agency. Incremental operating costs Unallocated Total (c) Comprehensive quarterly reports by each implementing agency indicating: (0.00) (0.00) (2.55) (0.00) (2.55) 0.00 0.00 1.53 0.00 1.53 (0.00) (0.00) (0.05) (0.00) (0.05) 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.00 0.22 0.00 0.00 5.93 1.00 6.93 (0.00) (0.00) (3.63) (0.00) (3.63) (0.00) (0.00) (0.22) (0.00) (0.22) (i) revised cost estimates, where applicable, for each contract; (ii) status of on-going procurement, including a comparison of originally planned and actual dates of the procurement actions, including preparation of bidding documents, advertising, bidding, evaluation, contract award and completion time for each contract; and (iii) updated procurement plans, including revised dates, where applicable, for the procurement actions. Procurement methods (Table A) 21 - 35 - Page 42 Table AI: Consultant Selection Arrangements (optional) (US$ million equivalent) I\ Including contingencies Note: QCBS = Quality- and Cost-Based Selection QBS = Quality-based Selection SFB = Selection under a Fixed Budget LCS = Least-Cost Selection CQ = Selection Based on Consultants' Qualifications Other = Selection of individual consultants (per Section V of Consultants Guidelines), Commercial Practices, etc. N.B.F. = Not Bank-financed Figures in parentheses are the amounts to be financed by the Bank Credit. - 36 - Page 43 Prior review thresholds (Table B) 2. Goods Table B: Thresholds for Procurement Methods and Prior Review’ All NS 3. ServicesFirms > 100,000 50,000-100,000 < 50,000 QCBS SBCQ -do- Individuals > 25,000 < 25,000 Section V- CG -do- 4. Miscellaneous l I 5. Miscellaneous 6. Miscellaneous Contracts Subject to Prior Review (US$ millions) None All All First contract All First contract Total value of contracts subject to prior review: US$ 1,000,000 Frequency of procurement supervision missions proposed: One every six months (includes special procurement supervision for post-reviewlaudits) Overall Procurement Risk Assessment: Low 11, Thresholds generally differ by country and project. Consult “Assessment of Agency’s Capacity to Implement Procurement” and contact the Regional Procurement Adviser for guidance. - 37 - Page 44 Annex 6(B): Financial Management and Disbursement Arrangements PAKISTAN: National Education Assessment System Financial Manapement 1. Summary of the Financial Management Assessment The financial management system in place at the curriculum wing is adequate and can produce financial statements for the project. Hence, normal supervision by Bank missions will be carried out. The flows of funds and accounting process to be followed for NEAS have been observed to be consistent and accurate. The curriculum wings (CW) of the Ministry of Education, Islamabad, and provincial I area education departments are the implementing agencies of the project. None of the implementing agencies has prior experience of implementing projects financed by the Bank. Financial management assessment of the CW, MoE, Bureau of Curriculum, Balochistan and Bureau of Curriculum, Sindh (now converted into Directorate of Research and Assessment) was conducted during appraisal in April 2002. The other implementing agencies in the Punjab, the North West Frontier Province and AJK also follow the same government accounting system. Hence, separate visits were not required. The CW, MoE, Islamabad would coordinate activities of the other implementing agencies. The project would be headed by a project director assisted by a project coordinator. An Accounts Officer, holding Masters degree in Commerce, and a cashier are being recruited in the CW, Islamabad to perform the relevant financial management functions. Provincial / Area PEACEs will also appoint an accounts officer and a cashier. Funds Flow and Accounting Arrangements The bulk of the project costs would fall under consultancy and training. The Bank’s procurement guidelines would be used for procurement in respect of the project. The Bank’s share in thefinancing of project costs would be disbursed using a Special Account to be operated by the federal CW, MOE, while Government procedures would be used for government funds. Provincial I Area PEACEs would submit expenditure statements to the federal curriculum wing for reimbursement on a monthly basis. The Accounting sections of the federal and provincial assessment cells would maintain accounts for the project in accordance with the Government’s cash accounting system. The chart of accounts would be based on the project costs as approved by the Government which are in line with the project components. Separate cash books would be maintained for counterpart funds and the Special Account. Expenditure would be recorded by disbursement category and project activity and monitored regularly against the budget. A record of the fixed assets procured for the project would also be kept and assets tagged for identification. Expenditure incurred by the provincial implementing agencies would be reported to the federal curriculum wing on a monthly basis for consolidation and reporting purposes. Transaction-based disbursement procedures are expected to be used for disbursement of Bank funds. Internal Control The Government’s internal control procedures would be followed for payments that would be made through crossed cheques [for both Special Account and counterpart funds] to be signed jointly by two senior officials. Project accounts would be subject to periodic internal audit by the federal ministry, AJK and provincial departments of education. Risk Analysis There are no significant project specific risks as far as use of funds for intended purposes is concerned since there would be adequate segregation of duties in respect of processing payments, approval and book keeping. - 38 - Page 45 The audit reports of the three implementing agencies (Federal, Balochistan and Sindh) whose financial management assessment was carried out did not contain any material weaknesses. None of the implementing agencies has been involved in any project financed by the Bank. Country risks include inadequate budget management and control and outdated financial rules. However, these aspects are being addressed by the Government through improvement in budgetary control and reconciliation of expenditure between the line departments, the Accountant General’s office and the Treasury. These improvements would have a positive impact on financial management of the project. Financial Reporting The following quarterly financial monitoring reports would be prepared by each implementing agency in respect of cost by disbursement category and project activity: 9 9 9 9 Physical Progress Report 9 Sources & Uses of Funds Use of Funds by Project Activity Use of Funds by Disbursement Category Procurement Reports as agreed with the procurement staff The federal curriculum wing would consolidate these and submit to the Bank within 45 days of the end of each quarter. Financial monitoring reports have been discussed and explained to the project coordinator and provincial accounting staff. Formats have been agreed with the implementing agencies who would provide these on spreadsheets using data from manual accounting system. The following annual consolidated financial statements would be prepared by the federal curriculum wing as per Bank’s formats in respect of Project/SOEs and Special Account: 9 9 Expenditure Detail by Component 9 9 SOE Withdrawal Schedule 9 Special Account Statement Summary of Sources & Uses of Funds Expenditure Detail by Disbursement Category Supervision Plan Since the financial management arrangements to be used for the project are expected to be adequate, Bank’s normal supervision plan i.e. six monthly missions may be carried out. However, special attention would need to be paid to budgetary control over expenditure. 2. Audit Arrangements Audit of the project would be conducted by the Auditor General of Pakistan who is acceptable as auditor for Bank-financed projects. Audit would be conducted in accordance with acceptable auditing standards. The auditors would give their opinion on Project/SOEs and Special Account as per Bank’s formats. The Federal Curriculum Wing would submit, through the Auditor General, the following audited financial statements acceptable to the Bank within six months of the close of each financial year: Type of report Due date 9 Project 31 December 9 SOE 31 December 9 Special Account 31 December - 39 - Page 46 3. Disbursement Arrangements All payments will be made through special account. However, in case of intemational consulting firm(s) in particular and other consultants in general, and large contracts for goods direct payment method may be used in case of need. Allocation of credit proceeds (Table C) Table C: Allocation of Credit Proceeds 90% of local expenditures for printing, Books & Journals and 40% of local expenditures for equipment and other ITotal I 3.63 I I DFID Co-financing through a Grant: An amount of US$ 1.14 million by way of DFID co-financing will be available with the following distribution for which a separate Grant Agreement will be signed between IDA (as Trust Fund Grant Administrator) and the GoP (as Recipient): Category 1 (Consultants services) = US$ 0.57 million Category 2 (Training, workshops and seminars) = US$ 0.57 million An MOU will be signed between IDA and DFID. Use of statements of expenditures (SOEs): The project proceeds would be disbursed against certified statement of expenditures (SOEs ) for: (a) equipment for contracts costing less than US$ 100,000 equivalent; (b) utilities, and other operating costs; and (c) consultant contracts below US$ 100,000 equivalent for firms and below US$ 50,000 for individual consultants. All other contracts will be fully documented. Supporting documents for SOEs would be retained by the Project Coordination Unit and made available for review to the IDA staff during supervision.. Special account: To facilitate disbursement, a Special Account ( SIA) with an authorized allocation of US$ 360,000 would be opened by the NEAS Unit in the Curriculum Wing, Ministry of Education (MoE) with the National Bank of Pakistan. The SIA would be used for eligible expenditures for all categories -40- Page 47 Annex 7: Project Processing Schedule PAKISTAN: National Education Assessment System Project Schedule Planned Actual /Time taken to prepare the project (months) I I I Appraisal mission departure Negotiations Planned Date of Effectiveness /First Bank mission (identification) I 0411 512002 I 0411 712002 I 04/29/2002 0411 912002 0611 712002 0411 812003 1012012003 Name Syed Ameer Hussain Naqvi Gary L. Theisen Akhtar Hamid Hasan Saqib Ahsan Ali Dr. William Cummings Anwar Ali Bhatti Iraj en Appasamy Sheila Braka Qazi Azmat Isa ,Hugo Diaz-Etchevehere Prepared by: Curriculum Wing of the Ministry of Education (MoE), Government of Pakistan and designated institutions of the provincial Education Departments. Preparation assistance: IDA supported consultant through SAPP, DFID consultants, UNICEF and Multi-donor Support Unit provided assistance to the government agencies. Bank staff who worked on the project Luis Benveniste H. Dean Nielsen Mohammad Khalid Khan Bertha Mburugu ncluded: Speciality Task LeaderISenior Education Specialist Senior Education Specialist Lead Counsel, Operations Senior Financial Management Specialist Senior Procurement Specialist Technical ExpertIConsultant Disbursement Analyst Operations Anaylist Counsel Senior Community Development Specialist Lead Operations Officer Manager, WBIEG I Peer Reviewer Education Specialist, EASHD I Peer Reviewer Sr. Education Specialist, EASHD I Peer Reviewer Program Assistant Program Assistant -41 - Page 48 Annex 8: Documents in the Project File* PAKISTAN: National Education Assessment System A. Project Implementation Plan 1. PIP (June 2002 to June 2008) 2. Detailed PIP for the period June 2002 to June 2004 8. Bank Staff Assessments 1. Appraisal Mission Aide-Memoires 2. Cost Tables 3. Bank's Country Assistance Strategy dated June 24, 2002 C. Other 1. Education Sector Reform Action Plan (2001-05) 2.Reports of the Technical Group Meetings (TGMs) 3. Federal, provincialiarea PC-Is 4. Government's Concept Clearance Paper 5. GoP's request (through EAD) for Bank support 6. DFID consultant reports 7. EFA Assessment 2000 *Including electronic files - 42 - Page 49 Annex 9: Statement of Loans and Credits PAKISTAN: National Education Assessment System 02-Oct-2002 Difference between expected and actual disbursements' Original Amount in US$ Millions Project ID FY Purpose IBRD IDA Cancel. Undisb. Orig Frm Rev'd PO74797 2003 Banking Sector Technical Assistance 0.00 26.50 0.00 28.17 0.00 0.00 PO71454 2003 PO55292 2002 PO56213 2001 PO71092 2001 PO49791 1999 PO37834 1998 PO10500 1998 PO36015 1997 PO10478 1996 PO39281 1996 PO34101 1996 AJK Community Infrastructure & SENICES 0.00 20.00 0.00 21.25 0.00 0.00 BSRPP 0.00 300.00 0.00 118.56 -193.12 0.00 TRADE &TRANSPORT 0.00 3.00 0.00 1.45 0.19 0.00 NWFP ON-FARM WATER MANAGEMENT PROJECT 0.00 21.35 0.00 21.54 -0.58 0.00 POVERTY ALLEVIATION FUND 0.00 90.00 0.00 48.41 -6.69 0.00 NORTHERN EDUCATION 0.00 22.80 0.09 13.06 14.38 0.00 NATIONAL DRAINAGE PR 0.00 285.00 0.24 114.09 85.64 0.00 IMPR FIN REP & AUDIT 0.00 28.80 0.00 18.44 20.47 0.00 NWFP COMMUNITY INFRA 0.00 21.50 0.00 5.59 8.81 6.72 GHAZIBAROTHAHYDROP 350.00 0.00 0.00 37.73 37.73 24.04 PK-TELECOM REG & PRIVATE 35.00 0.00 13.15 4.44 17.59 7.59 Total: 385.00 818.95 13.48 432.75 -15.58 38.35 -43- Page 50 PAKISTAN STATEMENT OF IFC's Held and Disbursed Portfolio June 30 - 2002 In Millions US Dollars Committed Disbursed IFC IFC FY Approval Company Loan Equity Quasi Partic Loan Equity Quasi Partic Pakistan Unit Tr 1995 1991 1994 1995 1996 1995 1996 1995 1996 1994 0 1991194195 1995 1993 1993197101 1996 0194195196 1998 1991195197 1996 1990191196 1993102 1995 1994196 1995 1996 1988 1991195 1992196 1995 200 1 0194195197 2002 0193 1984194 1994 1994 1994 1994 199 1194195 1983184194102 1 96 518 018 218719 5 Prudential Regent Knitwear Rupafab Uch Power AES La1 Pir AES Pak Gen Abamco Mgmt Atlas Inv Bank Atlas Lease BRRIL BFUUM BSJS Fund CDCPL Crescent Greenwd Crescent IBank D.G. Khan Engro Asahi Engro Chemical Engro Vopak FIIB Fauji Cement First Crescent First Leasing First UDL Gul Ahmed Hala Spinning IHFL JSCL Kohinoor Lasmo Pakistan Maple Leaf Micro Bank Muslim Comm Bank NDLC Orix Finance Orix Leasing PACRA PI&CL PILCO PPL Packages Total Portfolio: 0.00 0.00 6.80 2.75 38.05 30.82 15.58 0.00 2.50 1.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 6.00 0.00 6.86 5.14 6.76 1.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 18.90 3.62 0.00 0.00 16.25 30.00 0.00 0.00 0.94 2.1 1 0.00 2.1 1 0.00 1.25 0.00 0.00 2.25 1.48 0.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.50 9.50 0.29 0.00 0.36 0.24 0.00 0.50 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.72 0.00 0.69 0.00 4.10 0.00 0.40 0.27 6.30 0.00 0.52 2.66 0.00 1.25 0.58 1.25 0.10 0.00 0.54 6.63 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.00 0.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.80 0.00 71.24 0.00 26.83 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 SO 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.75 2.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.61 0.00 0.00 0.00 18.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.80 2.75 33.09 30.82 15.58 0.00 2.50 1.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.40 6.00 0.00 6.86 5.14 6.76 1.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 18.90 3.62 0.00 0.00 16.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.94 2.11 0.00 2.11 0.00 1.25 0.00 0.00 2.25 1.48 0.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.50 9.50 0.29 0.00 0.36 0.24 0.00 0.50 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.72 0.00 0.69 0.00 4.10 0.00 0.40 0.27 6.30 0.00 0.52 0.00 0.00 1.25 0.58 1.25 0.10 0.00 0.54 6.63 3.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.00 0.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.80 0.00 56.20 0.00 26.83 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.75 2.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.61 0.00 0.00 0.00 18.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 205.34 57.01 20.00 147.85 170.28 54.35 20.00 132.81 Approvals Pending Commitment FY Approval Company Loan Equity Quasi Partic 2002 Network Leasing 2.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total Pending Commitment: 2.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - 44 - Page 51 Annex IO: Country at a Glance PAKISTAN: National Education Assessment System POVERTY and SOCIAL Pakistan 2001 Population, mid-year (millions) GNI per capita (Atlas method, US$) GNI (Atlas method, US$ billions) Average annual growth, 1995-01 Population (%j Labor force (%) Most recent estimate (latest year available, 1995-01) Poverty (% of population below national poverty line) Urban population (% of total population) Life expectancy at birth (years) Infant mortality (per 1,000 live births) Chiid malnutrition (% of children under 5) Access to an improved water source (% of population) Illiteracy (% ofpopulation age 15+) Gross primary enrollment (% of school-age population) Male Female KEY ECONOMIC RATIOS and LONG-TERM TRENDS 1981 GDP (US$ billions) 28.1 Gross domestic investmenUGDP 18.8 Exports of goods and services/GDP 12.3 Gross domestic savings/GDP 8.1 Gross national savingslGDP 15.1 Current account balancelGDP -3.6 Interest payments/GDP 0.7 Total debtlGDP 37.7 Total debt servlcelexports Present value of debt/GDP Present value of debtlexports 1981-91 1991-01 (average annual growth) GDP 6.1 3.5 GDP per capita 3.3 1.0 EXDO~~S of aoods and services 9.1 0.6 141.5 430 60.1 2.4 3.1 33 33 63 83 38 88 56 96 117 74 1991 45.5 19.0 17.0 17.5 20.0 -4.4 1.3 51.4 20.9 2000 4.2 1.8 South Asia 1,380 450 616 1.9 2.4 28 62 73 49 07 44 101 109 93 2000 61 .O 16.0 16.3 14.4 16.2 -3.5 1.4 52.8 26.7 43.6 249.2 2001 2.7 0.3 Low- income 2,511 430 1,069 1.9 2.3 31 59 76 76 37 96 103 88 2001 58.7 15.9 18.0 14.6 17.3 -3.3 1.8 54.5 25.3 2001-05 5.1 2.6 Development diamond* Life expectancy GNI capita per 1 Access to improved water source Pakistan Low-income group - I Economic ratlosl Trade Investment Domestic - savings Indebtedness Pakistan Low-income group - I 16.0 11.8 -1.7 STRUCTURE of the ECONOMY (% of GDP) Agriculture Industry Services Private consumption General government consumption Imports of goods and services Manufacturing (average annual growth) Agriculture Industry Services Private consumption General government consumption Gross domestic investment Imports of goods and services Manufacturing 1981 30.8 22.6 15.1 46.6 81.8 10.2 23.0 1981-91 4.2 7.4 7.5 6.4 4.3 9.5 5.1 2.4 1991 25.8 25.4 17.1 48.8 68.2 14.3 18.6 1991 -01 4.1 3.8 3.8 4.3 4.7 0.6 1.2 1.4 2000 26.7 23.1 15.3 50.2 74.4 11.2 18.0 2000 6.1 -0.1 1.4 4.8 0.4 7.5 5.1 -2.3 2001 25.0 22.9 15.8 52.1 75.2 10.3 19.4 2001 -2.7 4.5 7.7 4.2 2.2 -5.3 1 .I 1.5 I Growth of investment and GDP (Oh) 10 T -20 1 -GDI -GDP I Growth of exports and Imports (%) 20 T I -Exports *Imports Note: 2001 data are preiiminaty estimates. *The diamonds show four key indicators in the COUntV (in bold) compared with its income-group average. if data are missing, the diamond Mil be incomplete. -45- Page 52 Pakistan PRICES and GOVERNMENT FINANCE Domestic prices (% change) Consumer prices Implicit GDP deflator 9.9 1981 Government finance (% of GDP, includes current grants) Current revenue Current budget balance Overall surDius/deficit TRADE (US$ millions) Total exports (fob) cotton Rice Manufactures Total imports (cif) Food Fuel and energy Capital goods Export price index (1995=100) Import price index (1995=100) Terms of trade (1995=100) 1981 2,812 1,663 BALANCE of PAYMENTS 1981 (US$ millions) Exports of goods and services 3,461 Imports of goods and services 6,467 Resource balance -3,005 Net income Net current transfers -261 2,242 Current account balance -1,024 Financing items (net) Changes in net reserves Memo: Reserves including gold (US$ millions) Conversion rate (DEC, local/US$) 9.9 EXTERNAL DEBT and RESOURCE FLOWS (US$ millions) Total debt outstanding and disbursed 1981 10,581 IBRD 310 IDA 909 Total debt service IBRD IDA Composition of net resource flows Official grants Official creditors Private creditors Foreign direct investment Portfolio equity World Bank program Commitments Disbursements Principal repayments Net flows Interest payments Net transfers 54 16 275 525 -21 72 0 149 105 36 68 34 34 1991 13.1 16.9 -2.4 -8.8 1991 5,902 412 346 3,253 8,385 890 1,691 1,953 111 1991 7,450 10,563 -3,113 -1,160 2,292 -1,981 1,987 -6 1,288 22.4 1991 23,364 2,181 2,311 1,961 254 37 613 998 -2 239 -9 540 623 122 501 168 333 2000 4.1 2.7 17.3 -2.6 -5.5 2000 8,191 73 540 7,874 9,602 896 2,783 2,714 84 93 91 2000 9,576 11,763 -2,187 -1,932 1,997 -2,121 1,913 208 1,516 51.6 2000 32,182 3,093 3,828 2,850 408 93 926 452 -361 471 74 0 301 291 10 210 -201 2001 4.4 5.7 17.4 -1.5 -4.1 2001 8,934 139 525 8,344 10,202 750 3,327 2,698 86 103 83 2001 10,284 12,535 -2,251 -2,160 2,460 -1,951 3,039 -1,088 2,244 58.2 2001 31,977 2,796 4,245 2,906 390 96 839 967 -561 322 0 674 669 300 369 187 183 ~ " 96 97 96 99 00 ,,I -GDP deflator -0-CPI I Export and import levels (US$ mill.) T I 95 96 97 96 99 00 01 Exports H Imports Current account balance to GDP (%) Composltlon of 2001 debt (US$ mlll.) A ~ IBRD E. Bilateral B ~ IDA D - Other multilateral F - Private C. IMF G -Short-term Development tconomics YIBUIUZ -46 - Page 53 Additional Annex 11 : Terms of Reference for Resident Technical Adviser (RTA) PAKISTAN: National Education Assessment System Applications are invited for the position of Resident Technical Adviser who will over a three year period assist the Curriculum Wing of the Ministry of Education of Pakistan in setting up a national education assessment system. The Adviser would reside in Islamabad but travel extensively throughout Pakistan to assist the various provincial centers in their efforts to carry out two cycles of the national assessment. The adviser would provide technical assistance in all phases of the assessment as well as organize and provide on-the-job training to local staff. In these capacity building efforts, the adviser would work closely with the experts of one/two new assessment training centers. 1. Background The Government of Pakistan is committed to improving the quality of education along with its efforts to increase enrollment and access. This commitment is reflected in the government’s policy documents (National Education Policy 1998-2010, Education Sector Reforms 2001-05) and in its reaffirmation at international forums (Jomtien Declaration 1990 and EFA Assessment 2000, Dakar) to include quality outcomes such as student achievement scores, as performance monitoring indicators in the education sector. In addition, the Curriculum Wing (CW) in the Ministry of Education (MoE) has the legal mandate for ‘maintenance of standards of education’. The National Education Assessment System (NEAS) is one of the key programs of the Education Sector Reforms (ESR). In view of the above commitments, the Federal and Provincial Governments have taken some assessment initiatives under development projects in the past. Most of these assessment activities have been project driven and there is no institutional base either at the Federal or the Provincial level to sustain assessment activities beyond the project periods. Consequently, there is also little evidence of the impact of project investments in training and human resource development in the field of student assessment. The initiatives taken so far are on a small scale and lack standardization and comparability. Neither the traditional school examinations nor the external public examinations administered for certification purposes, nor the selection tests for admission to institutions of higher education, sufficiently fulfill the criteria of standardization and comparability required of a monitoring indicator. A dialogue about the need and mechanism for establishing a National Education Assessment System (NEAS) as an integral part of the education system in Pakistan, was initiated in a national workshop at Lahore in December 1997. This initiative was followed by a series of nationaliprovincial workshops and Technical Group Meetings (TGMs). Consensus about Federal and Provincial roles in conducting assessments, and the broad dimensions of the assessments, was reached at the TGM held in Islamabad from February 18-19, 2000. A further series of Provincial Workshops and National TGMs held since that time have helped to further build consensus, better define Federal and ProvinciaUArea roles, and develop Federal and Provincial/Area PC-Is, to resource the NEAS and assure its sustainability. It was also proposed that NEAS and PEACE would be developed with Federal and Provincial coordination. The Federal Unit of NEAS at the Curriculum Wing (CW), MoE would have a coordinating role and support the assessment initiatives in the ProvincedAreas. PEACEs would be established in the Departments of Education (DOES) to undertake assessment activities in the Provinces/Areas. The two most recent TGMs, in December 2001 and January 2002, effectively completed the preparatory phase of the NEAS. The NEAS is now an accepted fact. In the TGM of March 13-14,2002, for the first time, it discussed in detail the initial phase of implementation, arriving at consensus at steps to be taken, and responsibilities for them. -47- Page 54 NEAS/PEACE would be new initiatives in Pakistan and need technical input from experts, particularly at the start-up stage. The CW in the MoE would require the services of a Resident Technical Adviser to provide technical inputs for establishing the NEAS/PEACE Units and for providing leadership in implementing NEAYPEACE activities. The Resident Technical Adviser would be responsible for developing the institutional and human resource capacity of NEAS and PEACE Units to conduct national assessments on a periodic basis, as a monitoring mechanism and to provide necessary feedback to stakeholders for policy reforms to improve the quality of elementary education in Pakistan. To institutionalize an indigenous capacity-building capability, it is anticipated that two or more local universities / institutions will be identified as sites for the provision of flexible degree/certificate level courses for NEAS and PEACE staff. The Resident Technical Adviser would be expected to work with the appropriate local institutions in developing the curriculum for their certificate programs and in assisting in the instruction. 2. Objectives The objectives of hiring the Resident Technical Adviser are to: 0 0 0 provide technical assistance to the CW to establish, manage, and operate a NEAS in Pakistan; develop the technical capacity of NEASiPEACE Unit key staff to conduct national assessments on a periodic basis; assist in the development of at least two local certificate programs that provide training in assessment related skills assist the CW in developing appropriate feedback and dissemination mechanisms to promote the use of assessment findings by stakeholders; assist the government in implementing quality control measures in national assessment. 3. Scope of Work The Resident Technical Adviser would work with a designated government counterpart in the Curriculum Wing and have responsibility for the following tasks: Developing annual work plans and work flow charts of NEAS to ensure the timely achievement of NEAS objectives. Planning for and participation in inception, team-building and review workshops to maintain the level of coordinatiodcollaboration needed between the federal and provincial/area governments for implementing NEAS activities. Planning and providing technical inputs in training for NEAWPEACE key staff to develop their capacity for undertaking critical assessment tasks such as instrument development, sample selection, piloting, data collection, data analysis, report writing and dissemination. Assisting the Curriculum Wing in developing, managing, and operating the first cycle of NEAS, i.e. national assessments in language, mathematics, science and social studies at grade 4 level and initiating preparations for grade 8 assessments, during the project period. Developing TORS for short-term consultants as and when needed, facilitating, and coordinating their inputs. Establishing a system of documentation, review, and feedback of NEAS activities. Assisting the Curriculum Wing in developing and implementing quality control mechanisms. Discussing curriculum plans with the local universities designated to provide certificate programs in assessment, and as appropriate, participate in the instruction related to these certificate programs. -48- Page 55 4. outputs e e e e e e e e e Annual work-plans and work-flow charts Training plans, workshops/seminars, and manuals Assessment certificate programs established in one or two local universities I institutions Assessment instrumentditem-pools Feedback and dissemination materials Periodic progress reports, including reports on short-term consultancies Field visit reports Record of meetings, communications, and documentation produced End of the consultancy report 5. Duration of the Assignment Resident technical assistance is proposed for a period of three years. The assignment will commence when the Resident Technical Adviser is hired. 6. Reporting Requirements The Resident Technical Adviser would report to the Joint Educational Adviser and NEAS Coordinator in the Curriculum Wing. 7. Qualifications and Experience Advanced degree in education (Master’s or Ph.D.) with specialization in assessment/psychometrics from a recognized international university. Demonstrable experience of conducting national assessments, preferably in a developing country context. An understanding of the education system and structures in Pakistan. Ability to train key NEAUPEACE staff to develop their technical skills in assessment, management, and operation of national assessment. Excellent writing, analytical, communication, and interpersonal skills. High level of computer literacy, word processing skills and ability to use available software for data analysis. Willing to travel extensively throughout Pakistan. -49- Page 56 Additional Annex 12: Request for Proposal for Institutional Support PAKISTAN: National Education Assessment System The Government of Pakistan seeks the services of a major international organization with academic strength in conducting assessments to support the Curriculum Wing of the Ministry of Education in technical issues relating to the assessment and to assist a minimum of one I two Pakistan universities I institutions as they develop and provide post-baccalaureate certificate level courses in assessment-related skills. It is expected that the selected organization would provide up to 3 years of resident long-term technical assistance (see attached TOR), upto ...( to be filled by the government). In addition, it would also support ---- weekslmonthslyears of short-term technical assistance and training to two Pakistan universities I institutions as they develop and implement their training programs, and receive at its home campus up to ten students for master’s level training in assessments. This organization will be expected to integrate these various technical assistance and training activities so as to promote sustainability of the national assessment over the next five years. 1. Background The Government of Pakistan is committed to improving the quality of education along with its efforts to increase enrollment and access. This commitment is reflected in the government’s policy documents (National Education Policy 1998-20 10, Education Sector Reforms 200 1-05) and in its reaffirmation at international forums (Jomtien Declaration 1990 and EFA Assessment 2000, Dakar) to include quality outcomes such as student achievement scores, as performance monitoring indicators in the education sector. In addition, the Curriculum Wing (CW) in the Ministry of Education (MoE) has the legal mandate for ‘maintenance of standards of education’. The National Education Assessment System (NEAS) is one of the key programs of the Education Sector Reforms (ESR). In view of the above commitments, the Federal and Provincial Governments have taken some assessment initiatives under development projects in the past. Most of these assessment activities have been project driven and there is no institutional base either at the Federal or the Provincial level to sustain assessment activities beyond the project’s period. Consequently, there is also little evidence of the impact of project investments in training and human resource development in the field of student assessment. The initiatives taken so far are on a small scale and lack standardization and comparability. Neither the traditional school examinations nor the external public examinations administered for certification purposes, nor the selection tests for admission to institutions of higher education, sufficiently fulfill the criteria of standardization and comparability required of a monitoring indicator. A dialogue about the need and mechanism for establishing a National Education Assessment System (NEAS) as an integral part of the education system in Pakistan, was initiated in a national workshop at Lahore in December 1997. This initiative was followed by a series of nationallprovincial workshops and Technical Group Meetings (TGMs). Consensus about Federal and Provincial roles in conducting assessments, and the broad dimensions of the assessments, was reached at the TGM held in Islamabad from February 18-19,2000. A further series of Provincial Workshops and National TGMs held since that time have helped to further build consensus, better define Federal and ProvincialIArea roles, and develop Federal and ProvincialIArea PC-Is, to resource the NEAS and assure its sustainability. It was also proposed that NEAS and PEACE would be developed with Federal and Provincial coordination. The Federal Unit of NEAS at the Curriculum Wing (CW), MoE would have a coordinating role and support the assessment initiatives in the ProvincesIAreas. PEACEs would be established in the Departments of Education (DOES) to undertake assessment activities in the ProvincesIAreas. The two most recent TGMs, in December 2001 and January 2002, effectively completed - 50 - Page 57 the preparatory phase of the NEAS. The NEAS is now an accepted fact. In the TGM of March 13-14,2002, for the first time, it discussed in detail the initial phase of implementation, arriving at consensus at steps to be taken, and responsibilities for them. Resident Adviser. NEASIPEACE would be new initiatives in Pakistan and need technical input from experts, particularly at the start-up stage. The CW in the MoE would require the services of a Resident Technical Adviser to provide technical inputs for establishing the NEASIPEACE Units and for providing leadership in implementing NEASIPEACE activities. The Resident Technical Adviser would be responsible for initiating activities to develop the institutional and human resource capacity of NEAS and PEACE Units to conduct national assessments on a periodic basis. Institutional Support. However, to achieve the long-term sustainability to Pakistan’s assessment activities, it is recognized that the technical inputs and training initiatives of the Resident Technical Adviser will need to be complemented by several other technical assistance and capacity-building activities including: 0 0 Short-term technical assistance to NEAS on specialized issues such as sampling, item analysis, statistical analysis, and other issues as may arise. Establishment of a minimum of two centers for assessment training in Pakistan that would provide post-baccalaureate certificates in such areas as planning an assessment, item-writing, item analysis, data management, instrument development, statistical analysis, and report writing. Provision of short-term technical assistance to these centers as they develop their curriculum and carry out the first rounds of their training. Provision of master’s level training in assessment to up to ten staff members at these institutions. Other technical assistance to the two centers and more broadly to the NEASIPEACE effort as may arise over the course of this activity. 0 0 0 The government of Palustan will identify one I two sites where the assessment training centers are to be established. Most probably they will be in the faculties of education andlor psychology of recognized institutions of higher education in the Karachi and I or Lahore areas. The selected institutions will provide buildings, staff, and other amenities for the new certificate programs. This request for proposals extends an invitation to an international organization with academic stature to: 1. Place a long-term resident technical adviser in the Curriculum Wing of the Ministry of Education with the duties described in the attached TOR. 2. Enter into a partnership relationship with the one I two Pakistan centers that will provide the necessary technical assistance, master’s level training in assessment, and other support so that the centers come to stand on their own feet within four years from the beginning of the partnership. The sections below describe the objectives and scope of work for the partnership; the parallel specifications for the technical adviser are provided in the attached TOR. 2. Objectives of the Partnership The objectives of the partnership would be to: 0 0 provide short-term technical assistance to these centers as they develop their curriculum and carry out the first rounds of their training. provide master’s level training in assessment to up to ten staff members at these institutions. -51 - Page 58 offer other technical assistance to the two centers and more broadly to the NEASIPEACE effort as may arise over the course of this activity. help the two centers and NEASiPEACEs in conducting assessment. 3. Scope of Work of the Partnership The International Partner would work with the designated officers of the two new assessment centers on the following tasks: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Identify the appropriate range of certificate programs to serve Pakistan’s assessment needs. Collaborate in the design of these programs. Facilitate development of andor procurement of the essential instructional materials to ensure that these programs realize the highest international standards. Identify appropriate titles for the center libraries and assist in the procurement of this literature. Assist in the instruction of the initial certificate course. Provide master’s level training in assessment at the partner’s home campus to up to ten staff of the home institutions of the two centers Provide other technical assistance to NEAS/PEACE as the situation may require. 4. Outputs of the Partnership 0 Curriculum Design for certificates in various assessment related areas: planning an assessment, item-writing, item analysis, data management, instrument development, statistical analysis, and report writing. One cycle of grade 4 assessment is conducted and initial preparation for grade 8 assessment are made Core library of 1000 books per center Assessment certificate programs established in two local universities / institutions A minimum of three cohorts of students trained in the various certificate programs End of the partnership report 0 0 0 0 5. Duration of the Assignment of the Partnership The Partnership could begin in September 2003 and continue for 4 years. 6. Reporting Requirements The Partnership will report to the Joint Educational Adviser in the Curriculum Wing. The Joint Educational Adviser will provide details on the working relations to be established with the responsible officers of the oneltwo focal Pakistani universities I institutions, based on proposals from these institutions and the selected International Partner. 7. Qualifications and Experience of the International Partner 0 0 0 0 Institution should have an accredited academic degree program up through the Ph. D. level. Demonstrable experience of conducting national assessments, preferably in a developing country context. An understanding of the education system and structures in Palustan. Ability to train key NEAS/PEACE staff to develop their technical skills in assessment, management, and operation of national assessment. - 52 - Page 59 Willingness of academic staff to spend a minimum of 24 months in Pakistan assisting the one J two centers in curriculum development and instruction. 8. Proposal Requirements for the Combined Provision of a Long Term Resident Technical Adviser and the International Partnership Organizations interested in competing for the opportunity to work with the Government of Pakistan in accomplishing the above objectives should prepare a technical and a financial proposal to submit to , , . .. by 5 P.M on ... The technical proposal should focus on the following matters: General understanding of the role of assessments. Understanding of NEASJPEACE and the plans thus far devised by the Technical Working Group. For further information, potential bidders may contact . . . .. for a packet of materials. A clear specification of the ways in which the long-term technical adviser can contribute to the development of the assessment. Understanding of the one I two universities I institutions in Pakistan where the assessment training centers are to be developed, and a discussion of the composition of the certificate programs that might be appropriate for these institutions. Identification of the long and short-term technical personnel that the organization would provide to meet the objectives of the RFP, along with a definite time line for the provision of their services. This time line should indicate a clear understanding that the NEAS project is a high priority item for the Government of Pakistan and that strict deadlines in the provision of these services must be adhered to. Discussion of the opportunities for the masters’ training programs in assessment that the professional staff from Pakistan would attend with details on the courses to be included in these programs and the expected scheduling and duration of these programs; the discussion might outline options that include some instruction provided in Pakistan as part of the certificate programs, some instruction through distance education or other self-learning modes, and some at the home campus of the contracting organization. A management plan for the delivery of all components. This management plan might involve the contracting organization linking with one or more additional organizations for certain components of the program (e.g. a testing organization linking up with one or more universities). A key consideration in the management plan should be to ensure a coherent and consistent approach in all of the project’s activities. If desired, the proposal might also include provision for the resident technical adviser described in a separate announcement. In considering the resident technical adviser, the proposal might wish to enlarge the concept to include two individuals (one classified as an international resident technical adviser and a second classified as a local resident technical adviser). Other related matters that might come to mind. The financial proposal should provide a budget parallel with the components of the technical proposal. The total cost for the proposed technical assistance and training exclusive of the resident technical adviser should not exceed $ ... million. Inclusive of the resident technical adviser the total cost should not exceed $ ... million. - 53 - Page 60 Additional Annex 13: Terms of Reference for Technical I Monitoring Committees PAKISTAN: National Education Assessment System 1. National Planning and Coordination Committee 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Develop an overall strategy for the NEAS, and submit it for approval to the National Planning and Coordination Committee. Develop and regularly update the overall implementation plan for the NEAS. Prepare rolling annual work plans for NEAS activity. Prepare regular evaluative reports on NEAS activities and progress, for submission to the National Steering Committee. Provide leadership for all NEAS activities. Develop a policy and format for defining subject competencies, based on the existing curriculum, any new curricula to be introduced in Pakistan, and internationally-agreed goals for basic education. Develop a standard format for the subject specification documents to be produced by the subject committees. Develop standard procedures and forms for submitting assessment items. Develop standard procedures for the administration and scoring of the assessment, and express these in manuals for administration and scoring. Ensure the quality of all NEAS products and activities, including their conformity with the standards and policies laid down. Inform decision-makers and others about NEAS plans and activities, and build national and provincial consensus in support of the NEAS. 2. Assessment Instrument Development Groups (1 per subject) Develop an overall framework of achievable competencies for grades 1-8, together with operational definitions, following the policy laid down by the National Planning and Coordination Committee. Develop a specification document for the subject, following the policy laid down by the National Planning and Coordination Committee, which will specify: 0 0 0 what competencies are to be assessed; how each competency is to be assessed what types of items will be used, and how many; and how these assessment items will be assembled into assessment instruments. Prepare assessment items as required by the NEAS and submit the items to the Federal NEAS Unit on the approved forms. Review (using the standard criteria and forms) items produced in the various provinces/areas, and recommend which should be accepted for piloting. Review items after piloting, recommend those that are suitable for use in the main assessment, and revise those that might be suitable for further piloting. Prepare draft scoring protocols for constructed-response questions, and revise these as necessary on the basis of trial scoring (after both piloting and the main administration). Prepare instructions for the administration of the assessment instruments in the subject, following the policy laid down by the National Planning and Coordination Committee. Supervise the scoring of constructed-response questions and if necessary to further revise the scoring protocols. - 54 - Page 61 0 Contribute as required to the analysis of assessment results, and to the preparation and revision of reports, following the policy laid down by the National Planning and Coordination Committee. Plan and participate in NEAS dissemination activities at federal and provincial/area levels. Participate in follow-up activities at federal and provincial levels. Act as resource persons at provincial level including if necessary training item writers. 0 0 3. Background Data Working Group Review available international literature on educational policy making and the factors influencing educational quality, and on this basis to develop a tentative set of background variables relevant to educational quality in Pakistan. Propose potential sources for gathering data about each of these variables, and based on this propose a model for the gathering of NEAS background data, using sources of data generally available within the education system, as well as both observation and interviewslquestionnaires. Develop a procedure for gathering any data on those background variables that may already be available within the education system. Develop items for the observation and interview schedules and questionnaires, and assemble them into draft background data gathering instruments. Pilot the draft background data gathering instruments, assessing the quality of the items themselves, as well as the degree of variability in each variable and its apparent relationship to educational quality; and on this basis to prepare a final set of instruments for gathering NEAS background data. Prepare a comprehensive report on development of the instruments, including the underlying theory, the instrument development process, the provisional grouping of items into variables, and the proposed analysis plan. Guide and support the analysis of assessments, and the preparation and revision of reports on the assessment, following the policy laid down by the National Planning and Coordination Committee. Prepare a set of policy recommendations relating to the background variables and their relationship to student learning achievement. Propose and implement monitoring of the uptake and impact of the policy recommendations during the second and subsequent cycles of NEAS. 4. Statistical Working Group Propose to the National Planning and Coordination Committee an appropriate methodology for drawing the NEAS sample, and overall sample size required in relation to the plans for reporting, stratification factors as required, and an appropriate methodology for drawing the NEAS sample. Oversee, and participate as necessary in, the drawing of the NEAS sample, and give a brief report on the sample to the National Planning and Coordination Committee. Advise the Federal NEAS Unit on the design of item piloting and other trials of NEAS materials. Advise the Federal NEAS Unit on the analysis of item piloting and other trials of NEAS materials and, if necessary, to assist them in carrying out these analyses. Advise the National Planning and Coordination Committee on the analysis plan for NEAS. Assist the National Planning and Coordination Committee and the Federal NEAS Unit in - 55 - Page 62 preparing dummy tables as required. Assist the National Planning and Coordination Committee and the Federal NEAS Unit in carrying out the analyses as required. Advise the National Planning and Coordination Committee and the Federal NEAS Unit on matters of statistical significance, and on presenting the results of the assessment in statistically acceptable ways. 0 0 - 56 - Page 63 Additional Annex 14:Major Studies of Learning Achievements Conducted in Pakistan PAKISTAN: National Education Assessment System irades 4 5 4 and5 5 3and5 1 to 5 8 6 7 8 3 and 5 1-3 4 rovince IWFP, Punjab, indh our Provinces our Provinces, ATAand [As WFP Subjects Av. Ya Score I Science 38 Math 35 Math Grade 4 Grade 5 Science 25 26 29 33 Gen.Know1 74 Mathwumb) 77 Math (Prob) 46 Urdu Rdg.Comp. 69 Math 48 51 Science 59 45 Urdu 67 78 Pushto (Lang.) 58 60 All subjects Findings Grade 3 Grade 5 Girls & urban students scored better in grades 1-4. Boys & rural students caught up in grade 5. All grades scored higher in rote leaming questions than in comp. and application. English 18-74 Islamiyat 11-81 Math 27-67 Science 10-75 Social Studies 2-90 Urdu 16-86 (Scores range for individual Rdg. Comp. items) (Urdu) 34.27 Math 41.72 47.57 Grade 3 Grade 5 Life Skills 41-51 36-66 Math 47-53 27-57 Urdu 22-29 35-44 All subjects No scores. Assessed by teachers, Learning Coordinators, and supervisors on grading scale A-D AJK 34 unjab unjab Balochistan (NAs), and AJK {ear 983 - - 988-9 - 995 - 995-6 995 - 996 997 997-8 - - 996 - 000 roject / istitution EP I I MoE, NE Wing EPM ISU 'RIDGES / EDP EP I11 MSP MSP PEP PEDP EP ource / Remarks hah 1984 (3,300 students er subject) .ugh, A.B. et al., 1990 I1,OOO students in 3 subjects) ISU, 1995 lnly 4-10 questions in tests. 1,563 students tested had, 1996 ests conducted in 1994 & 995 also. I 1995-6, Grade 3 (6,946 udents) and Grade 5 (4,627 ndents) 2R 1995 ,792 students tested in 132 :hook of 4 districts. :RDC, 1997 imilar diagnostic tests snducted for grades 6 and 7. 'RDC, 1998 MPE I PED Balochistan, 998 core range based on district ata. 'CEW / GoS, DOE, 1997 mes and Abideen, 2000 VAS); and MEC & Others -57- Page 64 Additional Annex 15:Summary of Project Costs Including Contingencies (Currencies '000') PAKISTAN: National Education Assessment System - 58 - Page 65 Additional Annex 16: Summary of Costs and Financing Plan for ProvinceslAreas - Selected Components PAKISTAN: National Education Assessment System (2) Cost Estim: Means cost estimates without contingencies. (3) Cost with Conting: Means cost including 5% contingencies. (4) Govt: Cost under this column means counterpart funding to be provided by the Government of the ProvinceIArea. - 59 - Page 66