21744 Regional Program for the Traditional Energy Sector TRADITIONAL ENERGY - THE WEST AFRICAN EXPERIENCE A Paper Presented at the "SAPES Energy Policy Forum" May 22nd-24th, 1996, Harare, Zimbabwe Max Wilton, Senior Adviser, RPTES The World Bank, Washington, DC Discussion Paper #12 Directed by The World Bank, Africa Region Supported by Directorate General for International Cooperation The Netherlands RPTES Coordination Team Boris Utria, Program Manager Max Wilton, Senior Adviser Mathieu-C. Koumoin, Energy Economist Koffi Ekouevi, Economist Suzanne Roddis, Operations Analyst For additional information on the RPTES program or the Discussion Paper series, please contact: RPTES Program Energy Africa Region The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433 tel: (202) 473-4488 / 473-0719 fax: (202) 473-8249 e-mail: RPTES@worldbank.org REVIEW OF POLICIES IN THE TRADITIONAL ENERGY SECTOR RPTES TRADITIONAL ENERGY - THE WEST AFRICAN EXPERIENCE A Paper Presented at the "SAPES Energy Policy Forum" May 22nd-24th, 1996, Harare, Zimbabwe Max Wilton, Senior Adviser, RPTES The World Bank, Washington, DC Discussion Paper #12 NOTE: THIS REPORT IS NOT A DOCUMENT OF THE WORLD BANK. THE FINDINGS. INTERPRETATIONS | lAND CONCLUSIONS ARE ENTIRELY THOSE OF THE AUTHOR. R P T E S PROGRAM Steering Committee Dennis Anderson, Senior Energy Advisor, The World Bank Hama Arba Diallo, Executive Director, Interim Secretariat of the Convention to Combat Desertification Fransois Falloux, Environmental Advisor, The World Bank Eric Ferguson, Consultant, Directorate General for International Cooperation - DGIS, The Netherlands Youba Sokona, Coordonnateur du Programme Energie, ENDA TM, Dakar World Bank Team Boris Utria, Task Manager Max Wilton, Senior Adviser Azedine Ouerghi, Economist Suzanne Roddis, Project Assistant African Support Group Saidou Ouiminga, Directeur General de l'Energie, Burkina Faso Ismail Toure, Coordonnateur de la Strategie Energie Domestique, Mali Kiri Tounao, Directeur Adjoint du Projet Energie II, Niger Omar Sallah, Director of Energy, The Gambia Alioune Fall, Directeur de l'Energie, Senegal Ide Bana, Conseiller, Gestion des Ressources Naturelles, CILSS TRADITIONAL ENERGY - THE WESTAFRICAN EXPERIENCE Contents Page Summary iii I. Introduction I II. A historical Perspective on traditional Energy 4 From Projects to Processes 4 New Initiatives since 1985 5 Emerging Policy Issues 10 Projects versus Processes revisited 10 Market Orientation 1 0 Gender Roles 10 Land Tenure and Decentralization 11 Communications 12 Macroeconomic and Socio-political Issues 12 III. The RPTES Overview in the Sahel 15 Country-and Sector Background 15 The Outlook to the Year 2020 16 A Review of past Interventions 20 Demand Intervention through Efficiency Improvement 20 Demand Substitution 21 Promotion of Sustainable Supply 21 Priorities for Action 22 Instruments for Policy Implementation 22 Forestry Management 22 Fiscal- and Pricing Policies 23 Institutional Adaptation and Management of Change 24 Integration in overall Rural Development 25 Development of human Resources 25 Orientation of external Aid 25 Country-specific Overviews 26 Senegal 26 Gambia 27 Burkina Faso 28 Mali 28 Niger 29 ii IV. The RPTES Implementation Experience 31 Program Organization 31 Program Execution 33 Reflections on Capacity Building and Mobilization 36 V. Ongoing Follow-up Activities 38 Country Activities in the original Group 38 Senegal 38 Gambia 38 Burkina Faso 38 Mali 39 Niger 39 Continuation of regional Activities 40 Studies 40 Communications 40 Training 40 Geographic Extension 41 The broader Context of environmentally sustainable Development 41 References 43 Glossary of Symbols and Abbreviations 45 Tables Table 3-1 Projected Land Use 18 Table 3-2 Demand and potentially sustainable Supply of Woodfuels 19 Figures Figure 1 Map of Study Region Figure 2 RPTES Organization - Alternative I Figure 3 RPTES Organization - Alternative II (Actual) iii SUMMARY Origin and Objectives of the RPTES Program 1. For many years the role of traditional energy (defined as fuelwood and charcoal) in the development of Sub-Saharan Africa has been neglected. Although energy from biomass accounts in many countries for up to 90 % of national energy consumption, and an even higher share of energy is used in the households, the attention of both governrments and major donors has focused on the modem energy sector and its investment needs. 2. To address this issue, the Africa Region of the World Bank launched in May 1993 a Review of Policies in the Traditional Energy Sector (RPTES), with financial support of the Directorate-General for International Cooperation (DGIS) of The Netherlands. The RPTES Program had three core objectives: * exploring past activities in the traditional energy sector in a multisectorial framework; * recommending new policy directions; and . identifying programs and projects that would translate policies in operational results. The first phase of the RPTES Program, focusing on a sample group of five Sahelian countries (Senegal,Gambia, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger) was completed in May 1995. Overview of Activities in the traditional Energy Sector 3. A historical overview of sector activities showed how the perception of key sector issues has evolved over the last twenty years. The early, monosectorial, approaches attempted to apply the analytical framework of the modem energy sector, but with a vastly inferior data base. Most external aid was channeled to recipients through a multiplicity of small projects. Since the mid-1980s there is a growing awareness of the close links among traditional energy, land use, population and environment. The resulting newer approaches can be characterized as a shift in attention from projects to processes, and from monosectorial solutions to broad- based natural resource management. 4. The RPTES survey of literature of this period highlighted a number of key issues: * The effectiveness of sector programs versus dispersed projects; * The need for identification of the actual economic agents in the market place; * Neglect of gender roles in natural resource management; * Land tenure reform. and administrative decentralization; IV * Communications gaps among governments, populations and donors; and * Potential conflicts of urban and rural interests, with socio-economic consequences. A judgment of the effectiveness of development activity in the traditional energy sector may be summarized in two major conclusions: (1) Most of the past work followed a technological approach and remained stuck at the level of local projects without much impact on the development process as such; (2) Policy change with a national perspective requires a management approach, which is inseparable from the socio-economic and political environment and, therefore, dependent on national processes rather than external aid. Review of the Sector in West Africa 5. The examnnation of the actual situation in the Sahelian country group confirmed a number of suspected problems: * A significant donor investment in demand management (especially improved stoves) has clearly produced social benefits but only mediocre energy savings; - On the supply side, the data base on biomass resources is weak, which casts doubt on the reliability of past predictions of desertification; - Land clearing for agriculture is the main cause of deforestation; * Unsustainable exploitation of the resource base by urban commercial interests is damaging to the environment and to the welfare of the rural population; * Fiscal objectives are contradictory and taxation and pricing measures ineffective; 6. The long-term development of the traditional energy sector (to the year 2020) was explored with the aid of a simple policy model containing the major NEXUS variables. Despite severe data limitations, this exercise produced a number of interesting insights: * Assuming only limited substitution of petroleum fuels, demand for woodfuels would double over the period 1992-2020; * Owing both to demographic development and to the preference for charcoal in the cities, urban demand would quadruple, whereas rural demand would increase by only 50%; * Food demand would result in more land clearing for agriculture, but still leave a significant part of the forest cover intact; * If all urban demand were replaced by petroleum fuels, the remaining standing stock would be sufficient to meet rural demand. The methods employed are considered promising for future work. However, at present it is more important to firm up the data bases than to refine the analytical framework. 7. Meanwhile, for the short to medium term the following policy measures are recommended: (1) On the demand side, promotion of improved stoves had best be left to non-energy agencies who are better equipped to address the social- and gender aspects, in cooperation with private-sector agents; (2) Substitution depends strongly on macroeconomic growth and rising incomes, factors that are by and large beyond government control. Artificial means to accelerate the process, like petroleum fuel subsidies, are considered unsustainable. At best, public sector agencies might consider selective and temporary subsidies of new appliances during the introductory stage. (3) On the supply side, the key recormmendations are the transfer of the rights to exploitation of the forestry resources to the rural populations and the promotion of agroforestry. (4) The supply-side measures should be supported by fiscal incentives to rural communities entering the woodfuels trade and penalties for the operators who continue to exploit non-managed areas. The role of national forestry departments should be modified (police powers limited to national parks), and extension services should be paid for by general revenues rather than earmarked funds financed by woodfuel taxes. (5) Other recommendations cover institutional strengthening (especially closer cooperation between energy- and foresty departments), integration of forestry exploitation schemes by villagers with other rural developments, training, and clear a priori understandings between recipients and donors concerning the policy principles guiding reforms. These general guidelines have been translated into specifics for each of the five countries in the Sahelian group that was studied. The RPTES Implementation Experience 8. The focus on policy led at an early stage to the recognition that, in order to be effective, the RPTES should be conceived as a joint activity of Afican and international experts, with the objective of fully intemalizing the results in the countries concerned. The RPTES was launched in each country by national multi- disciplinary teams of about five persons. An African Support Group, composed of the five team leaders and a representative of the regional CILSS organization, ensured the regional coordination among countries and the liaison with the World Bank team. In a first round, the national teams prepared diagnostic studies of their respective countries. Next, six individual external consultants examined and reported on common themes, such as macroeconomic linkages, demand management and v%i substitution, forestry policy, resource inventorization, information systems and institutional aspects. Upon completion of this work, the coordinating group of three persons in the World Bank wrote a regional synthesis based on the matrix of country- and thematic studies, with general- and country-specific policy recommendations. In parallel, the national teams completed the final country reports and proceeded to identification of programs and projects to implement the policy elements on which a consensus existed. The final outputs were presented at a conference sponsored by the Government of The Netherlands, which brought together the national teams, the World Bank coordinating group and experts.of many donor organizations. The agenda featured not only a discussion of policy content but also a first exploration of the prospects for financing the country proposals. 9. This RPTES approach to participation has several innovative features: * Substantial up-front African input, covering the entire spectrum of policy issues; * External consulting support as a complementary activity rather than the centerpiece of the studies; • A World Bank team acting mostly as coordinators and catalysts; * Distinct country- and Bank outputs, with country reports serving as the national instruments for internal dialogue; - Continuity of activity, proceeding from diagnosis to program formulation to financing; and * Strengthened Intra-African cooperation through exchange of experience, mutual assistance in program- and project formulation, and peer reviews among African staff. 10. The entire process described above took about two years, from the launching of the study in May 1993 to the conference with the donor experts in May 1995. The estimated foreign exchange costs (including imputed cost of World Bank staff) amounted to about US$ 1.4 million. Out of this total, 41% was used for activities of the coordinating team and only 29% for international consultants. The African contribution is best illustrated by the time spent on the study. The coordinating team of three persons in the Bank had an input of about 70 man-months and the international consultants about 32 man-months. The African teams, involving a staff of at least 25 persons, are estimated to have contributed 100-120 man-months, without counting the continuing activities after the conference. Ongoing Follow-up Work 11. In terms of identified programs and follow-up, the RPTES is clearly a paying proposition: Two country investment programs (in Senegal and Burkina Faso) totalling about US$ 40 million dollars have been prepared, financing is available and they are scheduled to be appraised in the second half of 1996. The implementation of ongoing programs (in Mali and Niger), adding up to US$ 15 million, has been speeded up as a result of RPTES interventions. wii 12. In addition to support of the new and ongoing national projects, the RPTES has scheduled several new activities: New regional studies will cover: * Models of village-based management of woodfuels production; * Economic costs of petroleum fuels delivered at major depots; and * Evaluation of carbonized mineral coal as a household fuel. The exchange of information and consolidation of the data bases will be helped by reinforcing the communication networks of the national teams. Finally, training of national staff (with suitable incentives) is a continuing concern. 13. The RPTES Program is slated to expand also geographically, partly through the demand generated within other World Bank departments (Mauritania, Ethiopia, Mozambique), partly by country requests for assistance (Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Sierra Leone). Much constructive operational work is possible based on the results already achieved, However, the continuing pressure on natural resources will increase the complexity of the issues with the passage of time. In anticipation of such developments, multi-sectorial analysis should be further elaborated to support policy formulation and actions that preserve a sustainable environment. TRADITIONAL ENERGY - THE WESTAFRICAN EXPERIENCE I. INTRODUCTION 1.1 It has been recognized for a long time that the evolution of the energy sector of Sub-Saharan Africa presents in many countries, especially in those of the Sahel, a certain paradox if one considers the roles of modem and traditional fuels in the economy. Modem fuels, although indispensible to the functioning of society, usually account for only 15 to 30 percent of total energy use; however, since they are inseparable from modem technologies of energy transformation and end use, virtually all investments in the energy sector are associated with modem fuels. On the other hand, the utilization of traditional fuels, despite their dominant position in the overall energy balance and their essential role in households, requires little investment. 1.2 This imbalance between consumption levels and investments has resulted in a bias of energy development activities towards the modem sector, where the scarcity of extemal financing is most evident. In the 1960s and early 1970s, one could even rationalize this bias in the expectation that economic growth and development would entail a harmonious transition from traditional to modem energy use. However, the actual experience has been quite different. Low growth and reduced incomes have resulted in widespread stagnation in both urban and rural areas, and they are prolonging the intensive use of traditional fuels as the most accessible (although not necessarily the most economical) source of energy for a rapidly growing population. The pressure on biomass resources and arable land in a fragile overall environment may put at risk the long term prospects of an entire economy, with the most serious consequences for the poorer strata of the population. 1.3 The World Bank Group, together with the UNDP and other donor organizations, has recognized the importance of traditional energy issues and devoted substantial resources to the subsector. Numerous studies carried out since 1980 have contributed to a rapid build-up of a wealth of information on the sector and its principal economic agents -- notably lower income households, as well as commerce and cottage industries in the informal sector -- which had never been systematically surveyed in the years preceding the petroleum pricing crises. Country and regional assistance that specifically addressed the needs of the traditional energy sector included, inter alia, household energy strategies (national, urban and rural), consumer surveys, improved stoves dissemination programs, and biomass resource inventories. 1.4 In parallel with these programs, a growing number of other public and private sector agencies (including NGO's) have undertaken similar studies. The resulting accumulation of data and reports has been instrumental in improving the understanding of the sector and of its development problems and opportunities. Nevertheless, more recent efforts to consolidate and integrate this knowledge have highlighted a dominant orientation towards technology and exposed major gaps that remain to be explored. While most past activity focused on the partial solution of problems in the sector (on the demand side, the supply side, or in the workings of sector institutions), there is a growing 2 perception that the energy problems are closely linked to population growth, agriculture and forestry, and that they have direct impacts on rural income and employment, quality of life, natural resource conservation and environmental stability. Indeed, there is a growing awareness that some energy issues may be the byproduct of developments in other sectors, and therefore cannot be addressed in isolation. Furthermore, there is a tendency to overlook the critical variables that link both modem and traditional fuels with balance of payments, external debt and macroeconomic imbalances. In summary, there is a clearly demonstrated need to address the problems of the energy sector - and particularly the traditional segment - in a more comprehensive and systemic manner. 1.5 At the level of project implementation, there is evidence that in spite of the efforts undertaken to date by the many agencies and groups active in the traditional energy sector, tangible results in terms of well-defined and implemented energy policies, strategies and programs are still hard to find. This problem is most pertinent for Africa, where energy from traditional sources accounts for 40 to 85% of total national energy consumption, for up to 90% of energy consumed by households, where donor agencies have spent large shares of their resources, and where nevertheless only marginal progress has been registered. This situation strongly suggested the need to evaluate the objectives, scope and approach of the efforts made to date, and to identify those elements that determined their success or failure. Such a review would benefit the government decisionmakers in the countries concerned, non-governmental national organizations, and the international donor community in its search for ways to improve the effectiveness of foreign aid in the field of traditional energy. 1.6 Within the World Bank Group, these considerations led to the launching of a regional review of the traditional energy sector (known as Review of Policies in the Traditional Energy Sector - RPTES) with the following objectives: (i) undertaking a retrospective evaluation of the objectives, scope and approach of the traditional energy sector work done to date and of its resulting policies, strategies, and programs, on the evidence of stated public policy, its execution by agents in the public and private sector, and activities of external assistance agencies and organizations; (ii) identifying the principal critical intersectorial linkages that influence the operation of the traditional energy sector in selected countries, and developing a conceptual framework and strategy for the sector within this enlarged-operational context; (iii) preparing a set of recommendations of new policy directions for the development of the traditional energy sector, and for the establishment of implementation priorities by national institutions and economic agents, complemented by appropriate instruments of external assistance; 3 (iv) identifIying projects and/or programs and thus to arrive in the shortest possible time at operational results; and (v) disseminating the operational results among the donor community at large. 1.7 The implemention of the review began in early 1993 with a desk study of past activities in the traditional energy sector throughout Sub-Saharan Africa, aimed at sharpening the focus on the issues. The work in Africa was initially carried out for a reasonably homogeneous group of five Sahelian countries (Senegal, Gambia, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger). This selection was based on the perceived severity of actual sector problems, the extent of work already done, the existence of complementary data bases in adjacent countries, and the experience with altemative policy approaches in similar environments. The five-country review was completed in the first half of 1995 and it is now being followed up at the operational level. The Government of The Netherlands, through its Directorate-General for International Cooperation (DGIS), has funded most of the basic review phase as well as the ongoing RPTES activities. 1.8 This presentation begins with a sketch of the traditional energy sector against the background of developments in West Africa (Chapter II), followed by the results of the five-country review (Chapter III). The experience with the innovative RPTES implementation process is related in Chapter IV. The concluding chapter V covers the actual follow-up activities and the potential for similar approaches elsewhere. 4 II. A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE ON TRADITIONAL ENERGY From Projects to Processes 2.1. Most donor-driven work in the traditional energy sector was triggered by the petroleum pricing crises of 1973 and 1978. In Sub-Saharan countries without indigenous fossil fuel resources, the steep cost increase of hydrocarbon fuels alone would have acted as a powerful brake on the transition from traditional to modem fuels that normally accompanies economic development. However, compounding the negative substitution effect of price, the drought in the Sahel of the 1970s and the debt crisis of the early 1980s produced widespread impoverishment and thus added a negative income effect to the factors determining energy choices. 2.2 Rural poverty and drought-induced migration to the cities, and the corresponding demand for traditional fuels by a rapidly growing urban population gave rise to the perception of the "fuelwood crisis", as manifested by localized deforestation in and around urban settlements. As related, for example, in Ref. [2 1], the initial diagnoses of the problem were confined to the narrow context of the energy sector and inspired by the analytical approaches used in the modem segment of the sector. Deforestation was seen as a consequence of energy scarcity, and solutions to reverse the trend would comprise demand management (mostly by introducing more efficient cookstoves and - at least partial - substitution of wood by hydrocarbon fuels) and supply enhancement (by pefi- urban plantations and village woodlots). Higher prices of woodfuels that recognize economic costs of resources were promoted as an essential accompaniment of physical measures, although in most countries the practical application remained elusive for social and institutional reasons. 2.3 This purely sectorial approach stumbled omo other formidable difficulties. The wide dispersion of economic agents (consumers, retailers, transporters, charcoalers, woodcutters, government agents) and the cultural barriers to penetrating traditional production- and trading activities made reliable data collection on a national scale most difficult. Attempted shortcuts by aggregation turned out to be so flawed that the credibility of predictions was severely undermined, and so was the prospect of inducing large-scale actions by governments. 2.4. The recognition of these limitations led to research of new technologies and implementation of projects in specific local circumstances, taking into account many socio-economic factors beyond the confines of the energy sector. The decade of the 1980s produced a growing volume of studies of the effects of population growth and of extensive agriculture on the management of forests and other natural resources, on land tenure and, woven throughout these issues, on gender roles. Furthermore, the available documentation on specific projects has already given rise to the kind of retrospective evaluations envisaged by the RPTES Program. Nevertheless, many assessments of successes and failures tended to stick to the project context in the sense that they produced suggestions on how to make better projects. The unanswered question remained 5 projects is really going to make a difference to development. This dilemma is well illustrated in a World Bank Household Energy Handbook of 1987. Under the heading "Purpose" the authors note: . the extreme diversity of household consumption and supply patterns usually means that the truth can only be found at the local level. Generalizations from these situations may often be necessary, but one should always recognize that they can be, at best, risky and, at worst, downright misleading." (Ref [26], p.4). True as these observations may be for the expert preparing a project, they have little appeal for a Minister trying to enunciate a policy. He is already handicapped by the weakness of Afiican government expertise in the field of traditional energy. In the first two decades after Independence, governments focused on building up the modern sector as the perceived priority, and with the onset of the debt problems of the 1980s, crisis management of national finances absorbed much more energy than the reflection on long- term problems. In such a policy environment it is difficult to gain the attention of decision makers unless the focus is shifted from small projects to comprehensive programs with a demonstrable significance on a national scale. New Initiatives since 1985 2.5 The end of the 1980s witnessed the emergence of new approaches to development policy, with important ramifications for the energy sector. The World Bank's Long-Term Perspectives Study (Ref. [1]), published in 1989, examined the development of Sub- Saharan Africa and identified major constraints and opportunities in a context going well beyond the sectorial boundaries that usually delineate external aid interventions. Shortly afterwards, the Banks Africa Region launched a major research effort into the Nexus of Agriculture, Population and Environment in Sub-Saharan Africa; an initial presentation of the results was released in 1992 and the final document published in book form in 1994 (Ref.[2]). The Nexus study hypothesized that in Sub-Saharan Africa there are causal chains between population growth, agricultural performance and enviromnental degradation. The evidence uncovered appears to support the existence of these linkages. There is intensifying population pressure on a finite stock of natural resources, and there is non-adaptation or too slow an adjustment of traditional crop production and livestock husbandry methods, and of traditional methods of using woodland and forest resources. Thus a vicious circle persists of low productivity, poverty, continued high birth rates, degradation of the environment and mining of natural resources, first in the forrn of deforestation and next in exhaustion of soil fertility. This line of analysis has evident implications for the study of fuelwood demand and supply. 2.6 In parallel with these World Bank initiatives, the more recent activities of the OECD/CILSS/Club du Sahel have given new impetus to policy research. In that respect, the preparations (Ref. [3]) and conduct of the so-called Segou Round Table (held in Segou, Mali, in May 1989) constitute a milestone. Sahelian development issues, and specifically natural resources management, were discussed in a forum made up by 6 representatives of African Governments, local communities and aid donors. The Conference Report (Ref [4]) comments: "For the first time in such a conference, rural populations were given a place at the table and treated as equal partners, not just as beneficiaries of public initiative." In line with the history sketched in paras. 2.1 - 2.4 above, the Segou Round Table marks a shift in emphasis from forestry projects to natural resource management, and from projects to broader economic development issues. 2.7 The Segou Round Table was thoroughly prepared by prior commissioning of three major reviews of resource management efforts ("Lessons learned") and nine special studies on such topics as decentralization, rural organizations, the role of women, rural credit and savings, land tenure, resource legislation, technology options, farming systems and livestock ( Ref [4], pp5-6). The resulting Segou Declaration established the following eight points having a bearing on sustainable natural resources management: * investments to upgrade the land * land tenure security * local participation * the role of women * decentralized management * information exchange * savings and credit * population and development The Round Table called (i) on Sahelian Governments to consider and apply the directives of the Segou meeting; (ii) on all participating groups (Governments, local communities and donors) to continue their tripartite coordination; and (iii) on CILSS and the Club du Sahel to work towards the application of the Segou directives and to continue their examination of the associated issues. 2.8 In retrospect, it seems clear that the still limited achievements of the Segou Round Table must be viewed in the light of the geopolitical situation at the time. The major changes in Eastern Europe and the spillover effects to other parts of the world had not occurred yet in May 1989. This would explain that Segou, although setting in motion a badly needed dialogue among governments, the governed and the donors, remained without visible commitment to action by government decision makers. However, the world events since then, and the movement in Africa towards more pluralistic processes, augured well for the follow-up solicited by Segou, and subsequent developments have justified this expectation. Following the Round Table, a series of national workshops and conferences were held in eight of the nine CILSS countries, as preparation for a major second Round Table in Praia, Cape Verde that took place in June 1994. The Praia-themes dealt specifically with Land Tenure and Decentralization (Refs [5, 6, 7, 8]). 2.9 The major actions outlined above have resulted in the World Bank, the African Development Bank (AfDB) and the Club du Sahel joining forces to implement a regional West Afiica Long Term Perspectives Study (WALTPS). The study region encompasses nineteen West African States, including the subset of five Sahelian countries chosen for the RPTES. The CINERGEE 1' unit of the AfDB (Ref [9]) piloted the study which was 'lhe Regional Integration Unit is the result of coopeation between the AfDB and the OECD. Under the Central Projects Department of the AIDB, the Unit is financed by four OECD Members: Canada, the United States, France 7 executed by the Club du Sahel, African counterparts and World Bank staff. The Study was intended to answer three basic questions: (i) Where will 400 million people live in a generation's time? (ii) What will the economies of West Africa be like at that time? and (iii) What strategies, policies and investments will be needed to manage human settlement and land use? The findings of the first phase ("Round One") were released in preliminary form in December 1992 (Refs [10,111) and taken into account in the RPTES analyses; final publication followed in December 1994 2. The analysis focused on population growth, migration across national boundaries, urbanization, and development of agriculture and rural settlement as a function of market demand. Although the basic hypothesis is that population growth and movements will drive development, there is clearly a feedback loop from economic development to settlement, since exploitation of markets creates opportunities. Hence the WALTPS analysis is envisaged as an iterative process. The study appears to break new ground in distinguishing explicitly the population segments working in the formal and informal sectors, and in the attempt to estimate at a subsequent stage the national output through a so-called demo-economic model. The RPTES review made use of the disaggregated population data for the five chosen countries to evaluate potential demand for traditional energy. The use of trans-national projections that reflect migration trends is a considerable improvement over the extrapolation of national data. 2.10 The so-called Round Two of the WALTPS, intended to cover social and political changes in the Region, was started in 1993. Although the results were not available yet at the end of the RPTES review, the terms of reference (outlined in Ref. [10], pp 125-128) by themselves are of interest, since they include a wealth of subjects that should contribute much to an outsider's understanding of the Region. The continuation phase would comprise two major components: (i) The general part of the study will examine pre-colonial and colonial periods until the end of World War II, followed by analysis of the changes that began in 1945 and were confirmed on Independence. Specific issues come under three headings: (i) National internal politics (including relations between governors and the governed and the role of the state); (ii) Regional geopolitics (including political divisions, polarity between Nigeria and the countries of the Franc Zone, strategies of country groups, such as the smaller coastal countries and the Sahelian countries, potential sources of destabilization (including "the rent-seeking nature of West Africa's international relations"); and (iii) The players (communities or individuals) and their strategies. Within this framework, the interdependence of economic, demographic, spatial and social dynamics has been given the name "demo- and The Netherlands. For operational activities, it equally benefits from the financial support of the World Bank and the Commission of European Communities. 2 For more recent overviews of the status of WALTPS see Refs [12] and [13] 8 economics." The WALTPS would attempt to develop and test economic models to check the internal consistency of the assumptions and to compare the results with official national accounts. One of the crucial issues to be clarified is the relation between farming and the rest of the economy. Although at face value none of these issues is directly related to energy, a better understanding of the social and economic systems as promised by the WALTPS would seem to be indispensable to assess policies in a field as intricate as traditional energy. (ii) Case studies for four countries (Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Burkina Faso and Mali) are intended to test the validity of the regional approaches by their detailed application to country situations. The results for Burkina Faso and for Mali, being two RPTES sample countries, should be relevant in the follow-up activities in these two countries. 2.11 Another forthcoming regional review of interest to RPTES is a Nexus study of the Sahel, being implemented by an international research team made up by staff of the Club du Sahel, of the OECD-funded Centre dEtudes et de Recherche pour la Population et le Developpement (CERPOD) in Bamako, Mali, and independent consultants. Similar to the WALTPS, this study aims at testing the Nexus hypotheses (see para. 2.5) in a sub-region of Sub-Saharan Africa. A formal report on the first stage (to July 1st 1993) is not yet available; however, the research team has already presented the highlights to various audiences, and the ones judged most significant for the RPTES, (taken from Ref. [14]), are recorded below: By and large, the Nexus of population, environment and development explains the root causes of the economic and enviromnental crisis in the Sahel. Today's age pyramid of females will determine to a large extent the evolution of popuiation in the next 30 years, with the prospect of strong population growth despite reduced fertility rates. Resource competition and conflict is already intense. Better resource management can buy time, but eventually new external inputs will be required to sustain production. Widespread use of external inputs implies the need to change the basic rationale of rural production, from subsistence to investment, commercial exchange and intensive land use. In social terms, there will be winners and losers. The stakes for resource access and control are rising, as evidenced in the struggles over resource tenure. A new social equilibrium at the local level is unlikely until the "uncentralization" of state power has played out. 9 Political instability may well be the greatest threat to development and the environment. Frustration has initially been aimed at centralized single-party state power. Democratic governments face shorter and shorter honeymoons. The basic infrastructure of Sahelian states cannot exist without donor support. For all practical purposes, donor money is the development budget. There is an enormous number of individual donor projects but it is impossible, from this morass, to convey a consistent sense of incentives to rural populations. Scarce resources are being underutilized because a coherent development strategy is lacking. Governments are often too preoccupied with the maintenance of power to focus on long-term development choices. The principal advantage of improved resource management is "buying time". The most underestimated aspect is its contribution to capital accumulation, both in terms of cash surplus and increased capital value of the land. The future processes of resource tenure, land sale, commercialization of agriculture, urban migration and investment are closely connected. The foregoing findings lend further credence to the WALTPS hypothesis of population growth as a driving force, and the preliminary policy conclusions are in line with the emerging issues discussed below. 2.12 Regional Integration is gaining prominence in declarations of Heads of State, in the activities of the Global Coalition for Afiica and in the search for enhanced effectiveness of monetary unions. The CINERGIE unit of the AffDB has made significant strides to give concrete form to this objective, among others by supervising the WALTPS. A seminal CINERGIE contribution to reflections on West African integration can be found in Ref.[15). This paper highlights the discrepancy between national policies shaped by the Nation States that came into being around 1960, and the interests of integrated development. The negative consequences of artificial boundaries are exploited by the population (smuggling) and by the political classes (rent-seeking takes precedence over integration). These phenomena are evident especially in the tendency to depend on imports to supply urban classes with consumer goods and food stuffs, at the expense of the development of African industry and agriculture and the welfare of the rural population. Among the key policy variables, the study identifies monetary questions and the relations between the UMOAs members and the anglophone countries. The subject matter becomes most relevant to energy when one considers (i) the links among agriculture, land use, forest management, biomass fuel supply and the urban needs for food and energy; and (ii) the potential cost savings of pooling the trade in hydrocarbon substitute fuels. 3 Union Monetaire de IAfriquc de l'Ouest l0 Emerging Policy Issues Project versus Process revisited 2.13. Despite new insights in the multi-sectorial and political aspects of the fuelwood problem, practical approaches are still burdened by the syndrome of the "successful project". Donor agencies as institutions are keen to be able to point to concrete results achieved in a short time with taxpayers' money well spent. Their technical staff are motivated accordingly, although the interest of long-term development extends usually well beyond the time frame perceived to be relevant to the project. The project approach in traditional energy seems to fly in the face of the logic of sustainable sector development. Whereas in the modem energy sector a single, capital-intensive project can make a large impact (for better or for worse), the effect of a project in the traditional sector is often minute, given the much lower capital-intensity and the localized development targets. For this reason the true test of project success ought to be replicability (a criterion that is rarely pursued as the principal objective), and follow-up with programs requiring financing in amounts that would begin to bear comparison with the capital invested in the modem sector. 2.14. Another consequence of concentration on projects is perfectionism. If as a matter of administrative aid policy the single project is all that counts, perfecting it becomes a matter of staff performance, even at the cost of diminishing returns to their input. In contrast to this approach, program-oriented aid counts on a "multiplier" effect that tends to compensate for the flaws that are inevitable when the effort is spread over a larger terrain. As one of the surveys (Ref. [3]) observes: "Doing something right" is as important as "Doing the right thing". Market-orientation 2.15 The dispersion of economic agents in the traditional sector cannot be glossed over by generalizations that may invalidate the analysis of woodfuel markets. On the side of end-use demand, the information gaps are usually filled by household energy surveys that give some clues to consumption volumes, prices and consumer behavior. However, farther upstream in the woodfuel supply chain there is often considerable paucity of information, even in situations where it is well known that production-, transportation- and wholesaling activities are concentrated, and often controlled by decisionmakers within or associated with Government. Without identification of the players in the market place, the quality of the analysis is bound to suffer, especially the understanding of the incentives and disincentives that play a role in any proposals for change. Gender Roles 2.16. One of the earlier working papers prepared for the Praia conference (Ref.[7]), comments extensively on lack of attention to gender issues. Since the points raised appear Ii of equal relevance to the analysis of the traditional energy sector, they are summarized below as reference points: * In most documents, women are still treated like a neglected minority, whereas in fact they are a neglected majority; to appreciate their role, a quantitative and qualitative survey of their contribution to agricultural output is necessary. * Studies of land- and tree tenure lack cohesion; the situation of women is far from homogeneous. They may have some property rights conferred by Islamic Law or marriage but are increasingly excluded by modem law. In zones of rain-fed agriculture, scarcity of land and demographic pressure lead to growing exclusion. * Studies of migratory movements are often limited to male migration without examination of the consequences for the women staying behind. * Women are not considered as responsible managers of natural resources and are not associated with management improvements; neither do they benefit from extension services. * Sahelian societies develop their organizations along gender lines. Women, although organized, are excluded from both traditional and modem decision-making organisms, as well as from information and training. Land Tenure and Decentralization 2.17 The development literature surveyed (e.g. Refs.[3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 16, 17]) shows a remarkable measure of agreement on the absence of land tenure rights as a major impediment to rural and agricultural development. Where individual projects succeeded, this was often assured by exemption from or by ignoring existing legislation. Lack of defined tenure was also found a major obstacle to project replication (Ref.[3]). Among the Segou literature, the recommendations of Ref[17] appear most pertinent for further examination; the authors plead for adaptation to local circumstances and pragmatic solutions, be it top-down legislation, cooperation between national and local authorities ("co-management") or codification and autonomous development of traditional arrangements that have proved to be workable. 2.18 A better definition of land tenure is closely linked to decentralization of the Government apparatus. Affirmation of property rights of individuals and communities may give rise to demands for local autonomy, and the effective local management of land resources is likely to require a measure of decentralized taxation and community finance. These trends are still meeting strong resistance in countries with centralist political traditions. In such situations, there are ways of nominally accommodating outside and inside pressure for reform without conceding the essentials: Under the label of decentralization, one can simply de-concentrate the central decision apparatus or one can decentralize by delegation of centralized powers. In neither case is there a question of 12 inherent rights of the local population, which can only be recognized by devolution of powers. Communications 2.19 The literature review, the RPTES workshops and other field activities suggest that communications gaps are rife in the field of traditional energy. They are found at four levels: * Among donors, sector or project work and recommended solutions may be driven by a priori established agendas of aid policy without much cross-fertilization. * Between donors and governments, there is still not sufficient recognition of the fact that any drive for radical policy change cannot succeed without a genuine meeting of the minds; short of that, pro forma compliance with what are seen as imposed conditions breeds only frustration on all sides. * Between governrments and populace, conflicts abound where it is perceived that the political classes have lost touch especially with the rural population and their traditional ways of life. * Among African governent agencies, lack of information exchange and cross-border cooperation inhibits the implementation of programmes on a regional scale that would begin to make a significant difference. Macro-economic and Socio-political Issues 2.20 Macroeconomics is usually introduced in studies of the modem energy sector within the context of investment, debt management, the trade in hydrocarbon fuels and the ramifications for the balance of payments. Some authors (e.g. Ref [21]) incorporate the traditional sector in this framework by estimating the impact of total displacement of urban woodfuel consumption on hydrocarbon imports. These exercises, although not without merit, are still based on rather hypothetical future situations. Two of the documents reviewed (Refs. [18 and 19]) present macro-analyses that are broader, that seem much more relevant to the actual issues and that arrive at similar conclusions. Both papers warrant a more extensive review in the following paras. 2.21 The author of Ref.[18], Jacques Giri, labels his paper as an unconventional contribution to reflections on the energy sector in Africa. He makes first the point that little useful work exists concerning the linkages of energy with other sectors, notably agriculture and industry. The World Bank Long Term Perspectives Study of 1989 is cited as taking a "classical" approach, i.e. the faults of the energy sector are seen as one of the factors having inhibited economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Giri argues that the evils of the energy sector in Africa are also well known in Asia, where they have not prevented strong economic growth in both industry and agriculture. With respect to deforestation he 13 notes that this phenomenon has occurred, on an equally massive scale. throughout history in periods of strong population growth. He concludes that the root causes of the African crisis do not lie in the energy sector. 2.22 The analysis continues with an examination of the energy balances in the Africa of 1950 in contrast with the situation in 1990. The "balance" is unconventional in the sense that it accounts for the energy content of food, energy for cooking, imports of modem energy in the form of petroleum products, and the energy content of imported foodstuffs. The simple model distinguishes two sectors, urban and rural. The rural sector is the only producer of household energy, the urban sector is exclusively consuming energy for intermediate- or end use. The change in 40 years has two striking features: (I) Owing to growing rural energy demand, driven by an increase of the population by a factor of 2.3, the capacity of the land to supply biomass fuels to the countries as a whole, including the urban areas, is no longer adequate. The result is mining of the standing stocks and deforestation; (ii) The urban demand has also vastly increased, partly because urban population increased by a factor 15, partly because of demands of industry and the tertiary sector. The quantity of traditional energy still supplied from rural areas to the cities is dwarfed by imports of modem fuels, but without a corresponding increase of foreign exchange earnings by exports. The result is growing dependence on grant aid and rising indebtedness. 2.23 The stagnation in Africa is ascribed to the dominance of an urban elite bent on getting cheap consumption from the countryside and abroad, and denying the rural population the income to purchase inputs that enhance their productivity. In the energy sector, the entire system is oriented to the effort to obtain consumptive energy on the cheap, often by corrupt means that push up the cost of productive energy. The erosion of competitiveness is tolerated because the social system provides no incentives to improve productivity. The only competing product in the energy sector is woodfuels obtained by depleting stocks. Giri considers that Africa has fallen for a "Consumption model" that has made a mockery of development. He shows little faith in donors trying to change this by structural adjustment, including efforts to reverse the "Urban bias". The key is altering the rural-urban terms of trade, and that cannot be done without a society changing from the inside. External agencies can exert only a gentle influence to nudge the indigenous development in the right direction. Many points in this perceptive analysis seem well-taken but, of course, allowance must be made for the fact that five years have elapsed since this study was done, and credit must be given to those forces at work within Africa that are pushing for rapid change. 2.24 The second document that merits special attention from a macro standpoint is one of the Club du Sahel documents, listed as (Ref. [19]). Although labeled as "Selected Case Studies", the principal conclusions that have been drawn are a good encapsulation of the major constraints as they affect operational work in the traditional energy sector. 14 2.25 The basic message is simple: Technological approaches in the Sahel are well developed but, where successful, their effect is limited to the local level. To effect systems change, a management approach is necessary, but this requires parallel changes in the social structures. The largest impediment to such change is the political and institutional context in the Sahelian States. The Western-educated elites that took over at independence have become increasingly alienated from the rural people; they do not understand traditional production systems. However, they have retained from the tradition a system of power and allegiance amongst themselves that drives the decision-making process, to the detriment of the rural population directly affected. "While the governing class was a non-producing sector of the economy, economic power was obtained by virtue of the fact that foreign aid investments passed through government channels". 2.26 Most development approaches have ignored the necessity of improving agriculture altogether. Moreover, they are based implicitly on the assumption that the farmer is somehow sick, and that only development assistance can cure him! The result has been the breeding of dependency and lack of initiative. The study asserts that the cultural focus of African societies must change. Agricultural and resource-protecting ministries are among the least respected; more lucrative jobs are elsewhere. Successful rural development, in order to succeed, must be a priority for national governments, institutions and donors. Willingness to change depends on the power play of potential winners and loosers. The study tends to be pessimistic on prospects for change but then, it was released in 1988, before political change began to accelerate throughout Africa. 2.27 The foregoing selective review of development literature illustrates that policy research in the traditional energy sector was already quite advanced at the time of the RPTES preparation, and especially so in the Sahel, with the substantial input of the Club du Sahel and of regional organizations. Although -the results and conclusions remain scattered over a wide variety of documents, there is one strong underlying theme: Sectorial changes must go hand in hand with a renewed socio-economic and political environment. Such change can originate from national leadership at the highest levels, from grass roots movements, and any civic associations within the fabric of African society. However, the nature of the problems is such that no foreign agency or consultant should aspire to play a center stage role in issues that ultimately can only be settled among Africans. 2.28 The RPTES team concluded from this survey that, in order to be able to assist in the management of change, a new approach is required to understanding the actual workings of the sector against a broadly defined background,. The role of donor staff and their consultants is seen as that of catalysts, helping the national counterparts to clarify the salient policy questions within the context of their national situations, and thus to try creating a national constituency as the preferred conduit for communication with Govermnents and non-governmental constituencies. 15 III. THE RPTES OVERVIEW IN THIE SAHEL Country- and Sector Background 3.1 The study region (see Figure 1) measures almost three milllion square kilometers, of which two-thirds is made up by the vast desert areas of Mali and Niger. The inhabited parts form a band of land stretching 3300 km from the Atlantic Ocean in the West to the border of Chad in the heart of Africa. Within this zone, average annual rainfalls vary widely as a function of latitude. The total population in 1992 was about 35 million, of which 25 % urban. The economies of all five countries are classified as low-income, with a GNP of about $ 350 per capita. Agriculture contributes from 20 % to 50 % to GDP but as much as 80 % in terms of employment. 3.2 Per capita final energy demand (of the order of 200 kg of petroleum equivalent) is among the lowest by world standards. The structure of end use demand is markedly different for the coastal and the land-locked countries. In Senegal and Gambia the share of household consumption is about 60 % and the transport component (hydrocarbons) ranges from 20 to 24 % . In the interior, the household share rises to 88 % whereas transport accounts for only 7 %. Senegal is the only country having a significant industrial share of end use (18 %). In all five countries, traditional energy accounts for about 90 % or more of all household energy consumption. 3.3 The analyses of the traditional energy sector developed in the last 20-25 years were patterned after the methods used in the modern sector. Biomass supply and demand were projected, the role of prices and institutions examined, and forecasts (in many countries of impending shortages) induced action by governments and the donor community. Although an impressive volume of research at the microeconomic level has become available, the results are less satisfactory from a policymaker's standpoint. At the macro level, much information must be inferred from a weak database and extrapolation of survey data, and unwarranted aggregation can undermine the credibility of conclusions at the national level. 3.4 The standing stock of forest resources and the annual productivity of the area under vegetative cover vary strongly with rainfall and climatic zone. From the Northern Sahelo-Saharan zones to the Sudano-Guinean areas in the extreme South, the average standing stock ranges from 4-30 m3/hectare, and the estimated productivity from 0.1-1.5 m3/hectare/year. These orders of magnitude hide considerable uncertainties. The examination of available data revealed important differences in the diagnoses and results. Generally speaking it appears that the unit productivity of the land has been underestimated and that the biomass stock was not completely assessed. As a result, some pessimistic predictions of the 1980s concerning deforestation and desertification have not materialized. 3.5 In 1990, the estimated total annual demand in the five countries was about 15 million tonnes, of which 11 million tonnes constituted rural demand. The best estimate of 16 the available supply at the time was 37 million tonnes. Out of the urban demand of 4 million tonnes, about three million was consumed in the capital cities and major secondary centers having a total population of about 6 million in 1990. Owing to the local dominance of charcoal consumption, the Dakar-Thies region in Senegal alone consumed over one million tonnes. 3.6. Urban interests dominate the commercial forest exploitation and the woodfuels trade. Under the legislation that prevailed until recent years, urban merchants hired their own woodcutters who cut trees or collected wood from the zones where rural people had only rights of usufruct. Since the fuelwood at source is practically a free good, partial or complete vertical integration of woodcutting, charcoaling and transportation activities can bring large profits to the operators. The system was sanctioned by forestry codes and enforced by the forestry services, much to the detriment of ecological protection of the land and of the social welfare of the rural population. 3.7 Although taxation of fuelwood and charcoal dates back to the colonial epoch, the economic rationale in later days was based on the perception that private exploitation and pricing do not recognize the replacement value of the resource. The imposition of a stumpage fee was supposed to rectify the price signal to the consumer and also induce a shift to substitute fuels like butane and kerosine. Actual taxation levels are equivalent to 3 to 11 % of the retail price, too small to make much difference in consumer behavior. Because of the poor tax collection record the practical effect is even more diluted, and the total sums collected are insignificant relative to total national tax revenues. 3.8 In contrast with long standing preferences for State-owned enterprises, the production and trade of traditional fuels is essentially a private business straddling the border of the formal and informal sectors. Intervention in the traditional energy sector is the preoccupation of many government agencies active in forestry, agriculture and environment, energy, commerce and finance. Each interested group brings its own perspective, inter-agency cooperation is poor and the regulation imposed has not been very effective. The Outlook to the Year 2020 3.9 The RPTES study included an analysis of potential future developments that integrate the so-called Nexus of population growth, agriculture and environment with the traditional energy sector. To generate this information, a simple model was developed along the following lines: * project growth of population and spatial settlement pattems; * estimate corresponding requirements for staple foods and energy, in conjunction with available household survey data; * assess potential for domestic food production at an assumed level of agricultural technology; * evaluate the implications of agricultural needs for patterns of land use; 17 * estimate the corresponding sustainable biomass supply from forests, open woodlands and cultivated areas; and * assess the supply/demand balance of traditional energy. Clearly, the results depend on many assumptions, such as the advance of agricultural technology, import dependency, and the accessibility of the resources considering road infrastructure, transportation costs, distribution of resources and market size. At this stage, the operational value lies in the definition of a multi-disciplinary framework for thinking about policy, in the development of at least some orders of magnitude for the expected changes, and in identifyring priorities for research to firm up the data bases. 3.10 The underlying population projection is based on the WALTPS regional study of 19 countries in West Africa, of which the RPTES group is a subset. Two scenarios of high and low economic growth are postulated, and each case is associated with a continuation of intra-regional population movements observed since 1930, generally from the countries in the interior to the coast. The greater mobility and higher degree of urbanization are expected to occur under the higher economic growth scenario. In the latter case, the resulting evolution to 2020 would be as follows (total population in millions): Senegal Gambia Burkina Mali Niger Region Areasq. km 197,000 12,000 274,000 1241,000 1267,000 2991,000 Population 1992 7.8 0.9 9.5 9.0 8.2 35.4 2020 16.9 2.4 15.4 14.5 13.6 62.8 Urban % 1992 43 32 22 22 16 25 2020 63 50 38 37 29 43 3.11 The needs for domestically grown staple foods and the accompanying agricultural expansion would result in shifting land use, from forestry to cultivation. The projection assumes a continuation of the productivity that can be attained by traditional agricultural technology. The implications can be seen from Table 3-1, summarizing the land use projected under the population scenario shown above. Everywhere, an agricultural expansion driven by the need for food would reduce the areas of forest and woodlands but without leading to total deforestation. In terms of annual growth rates, the strongest pressure on forested land is seen to occur in Gambia. With respect to deforestation, Niger is a close second because it has already a relatively small forestry resource endowment, and the lower soil fertility translates into the need for larger agricultural expansion. 18 TABLE 3-1 PROJECTED LAND USE (km2) Senegal Gambia Burkina Mali Niger 1. Land Uses in 1990 Total agric. land (incl fallows) 45,500 4,000 105,100 65,200 122,100 Forest and woodland 131,600 4,500 140,700 261,500 143,900 2. Projected Uses in 2020 Total agricultural land 63,400 5,900 134,600 84,600 159,000 Forest and woodlands 113,720 2,500 111,200 242,100 107,000 3. % Annual change '90-'20 Total agricultural land 2.00 4.63 2.47 2.40 2.22 Forest and woodland -0.48 -1.19 -0.79 -0.26 -0.99 3.12 The long-term projection of demand for traditional energy was made separately for rural and urban populations. For rural areas where fuelwood is mostly collected rather than traded, the quantities are based on observed per capita uses that appear to be strongly related to relative scarcity. Even without price signals, more wood is wasted where supply is still plentiful (e.g. in Southern Mali); on the other hand, in areas where walking distances for collection become ever larger, per capita use tends to descend eventually to the physical minimum needs (e.g. in Niger). Projections of urban use suggest that a gradual changeover from fuelwood to charcoal will take place, but also that a large-scale substitution of petroleum fuels for woodfuels is not likely to happen. 3.13. Table 3-2 summarizes the demand and supply estimates in 1990 and 2020. The most striking change in the 30-year period occurs in urban demand. For the five countries taken together, the urban share in the total consumption rises from about 25 % in 1990 to over 50 % at the end of the period. The change is most pronounced in the countries with the highest urbanization and - presumably - the fastest transition to charcoal use. This is evident especially in the case of Senegal, where the urban demand would account for as much as 78 % of the national total in 2020. In rough numbers, the trend is towards a quadrupling of urban consumption while, except in Gambia, rural consumption increases by only one half over the period. In terms of average annual growth, the total use in the five countries increases at a rate of 2.6 %, but this regional average masks the fact that the rural growth is only 1.3 % whereas the urban demand expands at a rate of 4.6 %. 3.14. The woodfuel supply potential by the year 2020 was derived from the pattems of land use summarized above and the estimated productivity of the various land categories. In view of the still weak data base, the supply projections should be considered as part of a scenario that needs to be closer examined as better information becomes available. The reduction of woodfuel supply capability over the period is rather modest, but one should take into account that the productivity of cleared forest land does not fall to zero. Where the productivity of woodland is low in the first place (and vast areas in the more Northern zones fall in this category) the difference between forested land and cleared land is not 19 dramatic. Hence the - at first sight somewhat surprising - finding that the aggregate supply capability during the period falls by only about 10%. 3.15 The supply- and demand estimates in Table 3-2 are derived from spatial analysis, and as such they represent a significant step forward relative to aggregate estimates. Nevertheless, the results are still considered to be subject to large errors, and differences of demand and supply of less than 30 % of supply are not believed to be statistically meaningful. With this qualification, one can infer from Table 3-2 that by the year 2020 all RPTES countries except Mali would face untenable situations if total demand for traditional energy develops as shown. On the other hand, if urban demand were totally replaced by petroleum fuels, all countries except Gambia would have enough supply left to meet the rural demand alone. 3.16 These findings illustrate the open-ended nature of the underlying model. Macro- economic growth and its effect on household incomes is a major factor in the development of substitution of modem fuels in the cities. On the supply side, even after a disaggregated analysis of the woodfuel productivity of the land, the accessibilty of the resources should be considered. Road infrastructure, transportation costs, distribution of resources and market size are determining factors, especially for the supply of urban markets. To the extent that they can be influenced by policy, there is nothing deterministic about the projections. TABLE 3-2 DEMAND AND POTENTIALLY SUSTAINABLE SUPPLY OF WOODFUELS (in thousands of tonnes of woodfuel equivalent) Senegal Gambia Burkina Mali Niger Total 1. Situation 1990 Urban Demand 2000 130 800 1100 400 4400 Rural Demand 1500 320 3600 3600 2100 11200 Total Demand 3500 450 4400 4700 2500 15600 Supply 1990 6300 300 8900 17100 4700 37300 2. Situation 2020 Urban Demand 8300 800 3000 3700 1400 17200 Rural Demand 2400 600 5000 5500 3300 16700 Total Demand 10700 1400 8000 9200 4700 33900 Supply 2020 5700 240 8000 16500 4300 34800 3.Market Growth % Urban 4.9 6.0 4.3 4.2 4.5 4.6 Rural 1.4 2.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.3 Total 3.8 3.8 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.6 20 3.17 Thus, any scenario looking 25 to 30 years ahead is full of uncertainties on both the demand- and the supply side, However, the fact that many pessimistic predictions of the 1970s have not come true should not lead to complacency. What was predicted for 1990 (without coming true) may wel happen in 2010 unless a clear policy direction emerges now and corresponding actions are taken with reference to two time frames: Over the intermediate term (say a horizon to 2005), a more thorough analysis of future land use should be made, following the general principles outlined above. Since a projection for a shorter period is subject to fewer uncertainties, the results can be more readily interpreted against the existing known operational environment. * With respect to the short term, reforms are clearly necessary regardless of the physical dimensions of future developments, and they should be undertaken now. They cover a broad spectrum of traditional energy sector activities that have been explored as part of the RPTES Programme. A Review of past Interventions Demand Intervention through Efficiency Improvement. 3.18 The use of traditional energy for cooking, the major component of traditional energy demand in the RPTES countries, is inefficient. Efforts to improve the process by promotion of improved woodstoves have met mixed success. On the positive side, the stove projects in the Sahel have had an important social impact in terms of improving household cooking environments, improving health conditions and introducing technical change at the household level. Furthermore, improved stove programs have played a most useful role in the identification of critical gender issues and in the mobilization of women's groups at the grassroots level. However, energy savings have been mediocre or poor in relation to the resources expended. The disappointing record can be largely attributed to a narrow, technology-based approach dating back to the 1970s. Projects of more recent date combine recent socio-economic and earlier technical experience. On balance, the RPTES review concluded that: (i) improved stoves programs perform a valuable function and should be continued, while incorporating the lessons learned; (ii) since the demonstrated net energy savings are small, stove promotion cannot be a high priority of energy entities facing many other demands on their limited resources; and (iii) given the importance of the social dimension, non-energy organizations are best placed to take a lead role, bearing in mind that ultimately the sustainability depends on a full commitment of the private sector. In summary, future demand management should reflect, at both technical and institutional levels, the evolution from a strong technological, efficiency- oriented approach to welfare improvement in the broader sense. 21 Demand Substitution. 3.19 Governments in the RPTES countries are all active in attempting to replace ligneous fuels (fuelwood and charcoal) by petroleum products (Liquid Petroleum Gas - LPG - and kerosine). However, success basically depends on two factors that are largely beyond government control: Economic growth and the corresponding increase of personal incomes that would permit consumers to switch fuels. LPG penetration is farthest advanced in Senegal and to a lesser extent in Gambia. The dissemination in the land- locked RPTES countries is hampered by high import costs caused by inefficient procurement of small quantities, absence of transnational coordination of purchases, and large transportation distances. 3.20 The experience with a regional LPG Promotion Program, now discontinued, shows that the means utilized to accelerate the substitution process have not been effective. The woodfuel savings are well below the values suggested by straightforward fuelswitching because consumers tend to change first to multiple fuel use. Kerosine, already widely used for lighting in non-electrified households, is only in Niger being actively promoted as a cooking fuel but the rate of penetration is low. The merits of government subsidies to accelerate substitution are debatable. Whether intended or not, part of the employed public sector funds tends to benefit higher income strata and commercial establishments rather than disadvantaged households. Senegal operates a cross-subsidy program that clearly has had an impact on consumer demand, but the economic costs are not negligible, and they may be even less acceptable for the other four countries having only half of Senegal's GNP per capita. These conclusions apply mainly to fuel subsidies; there may be cases where temporary subsidies of new appliances are desirable to overcome initial marketing problems. Promotion of sustainable Supply. 3.21 Like woodstove programs on the demand side of the market, efforts to improve supply in the Sahel have gone through a history of trial and error before viable solutions began to emerge. Three courses of action may be distinguished: * Large-scale woodfuel plantations have been least successful, and they seem to merit consideration only if woodfuels are a byproduct of growing trees for timber, subject of course to marketing opportunities. * Most farming systems in the Sahel are agroforestry systems where trees and annual crops grow together. However, in most cases development has not reached the stage where trees are planted intentionally. This has proven to be a viable option in other parts of Africa and there is a growing body of encouraging information on its potential, provided that constraints related to land- and tree tenure are lifted. * Meanwhile, better management of the existing forests with participation of the rural population appears to offer the best near-term prospects of increasing the sustainable 22 supply of fuelwood. Coincidentally, many experimental projects started up in all RPTES countries at the same time as a drive for decentralization of the public sector. In its most elementary form, participation means that subsistence farmers can earn cash from controlled exploitation of nearby forests, which would help the monetization of the economy in impoverished rural areas and thus provide some financial resources for further developments. This option is strategically closely linked to agroforestry, because bringing open-access resources under community management is a precondition for tree-planting activities. It should be recognized that, whatever the option chosen, their long run viability depends on the opportunity cost of land as determined by its optimum use. Priorities for Action 3.22 Priorities for action should flow from a clear definition of the desired objectives and targets. The desired developmental objective is the establishment of economically stable, socially equitable and ecologically sustainable traditional energy markets. The recommendations for action, without negating the validity of previous interventions, should take into account the existing human, financial and institutional resource constraints in the RPTES countries. Furthermore, any one of the three options outlined above (demand-side, substitution- and supply-side interventions) requires close cooperation of public- and private sector agents. In weighing the merits of each potential action, the limitations of the public sector need to be clearly recognized. Public sector resources are scarce; therefore, urdess policy is focused, much human effort and resources can be dissipated on legislation, fiscal measures, reorganization of institutions and law enforcement, while serving different or contradictory objectives. 3.23 Viewed from these perspectives, the priorities for government action in the RPTES countries become clearer. As discussed, non-price demand interventions (essentially improved stoves for households) are helpful, but they are not likely to reduce the pressure on natural biomass resources in the face of growing demand. Substitution is driven essentially by growth of household incomes, and the existing weak economies do not have the fiscal means to accelerate this process by subsidizing fuels (although temporary equipment subsidies may be appropriate in specific situations). The third option, promotion of sustainable supply through participatory management of natural forests and - by extension - agroforestry, has emerged as the best prospect to attain, if not a solution, at least a rapid improvement. Instruments or Policy Implementation Forestry Management 3.24 Legislative reforms are necessary to redefine the rights of rural populations by letting them participate in the commercial exploitation of the forests and share in the benefits. Senegal and Mali have enacted legislation to that effect, while in the other 23 RPTES countries new laws are being drafted Regardless of the state of advancement of legislation, the subject is being examined everywhere in the light of experience already gained with pilot projects. Within the legislative framework, the basic implementation instrument is a management contract between the authorities and villagers spelling out the conditions of sustainable exploitation, the mutual obligations and the sharing of the benefits. Significant issues remain to be resolved with regard to the security of the rights granted, the representation of village populations, the role of traditional authorities and the links of village-based production with transportation and marketing operations. It is important to foresee the organization of charcoal production in these schemes to avoid the development of uncontrolled and new ecologically damaging forest exploitation practices. Fiscal- and Pricing Policies 3.25 The "woodfuel crisis" that experts thought to detect in the 1970s gave rise to the idea that pricing of wood at its true economic value would drive households to substitutes like LPG and kerosene, and thus the market would solve the environmental threat to the forests. Economic logic dictated that achieving this pricing effect would require imposition of significant stumpage fees. In fact, both the theory and the practice of such a policy were beset with difficulties. At the conceptual level, the basis for establishing a stumpage fee was usually the cost of replacement, which implicitly conveyed the idea that preserving the forest as such should be an a priori objective. This extreme approach does not address the question why forests should be preserved or how much should be preserved, and whether the conservation policy is consistent with the optimum use of land as a productive resource. The "replanting" criterion implies somehow that woodfuel supply is a process of clearcutting and subsequent - artificial - restoration of the forest. This may be true of some industrial plantations exploited for growing timber, but in the case of woodfuels obtained from indigenous forests one sees a cycle of harvesting and re-growth that, if properly managed, need not result in deforestation and, consequently, does not require complete replanting. Moreover, the exclusive forestry approach overlooks that clearing of agricultural land puts extra supplies on the market and that the productive capacity of open woodlands and fallows has been consistently underestimated. 3.26 Because of the high investment cost in reforestation, the "replanting" criterion results in very high stumpage fees. Governments somewhat reluctantly took the first steps to increase taxes, often at donor insistence, but they found themselves in a dilerrma: In the deteriorating economy of the late 1980s (especially in the countries of the franc zone) the authorities did not wish to add to the difficulties of households by raising taxes on woodfuels. They were well aware of the risks of unacceptable social consequences and urban unrest. On the other hand the notion took hold that taxes on woodfuel, similar to those in the petroleum sector, could become an important source of public sector revenues. Thus, actual fiscal policies had ambiguous objectives, woodfuel taxes and - prices remained low, tax collection performance was poor and the market solution through substitution did not materialize. 24 3.27 Furthermore, the trend towards decentralization of forestry management and towards community participation raises new questions concerning the role of the State, the structure of incentives for villagers, transporters and merchants, and the financial management of the forestry services. In brief, there is an urgent need to re-think the taxation issue, not narrowly with respect to the appropriate level of taxation, but rather with respect to taxation objectives and means of implementation. A re-orientation of fiscal policy along the following lines is reconmmended: . Supporting sustainable woodfuel supply and environmental protection, by local communities managing the existing natural forests and woodlands under contracts; • Providing adequate incentives to secure the cooperation of the local rural populations by exempting village-based production from all centrally-imposed commodity taxes (to be distinguished from levies that financially support the management schemes and that are collected and spent under local control); * Protecting the new producers against unfair competition from existing commercial interests by establishing minimum producer prices until such time that the woodfuels trade has been satisfactorily restructured; * Penalize non-sustainable exploitation by levying a significant tax on non-managed production; and - Transform the forestry services from law-enforcement to extension agencies, financed out of general government revenue rather than earnarked woodfuel taxes. Institutional Adaptation and Management of Change 3.28 Public sector regulation of activities in the traditional energy sector has been largely ineffective because of uncoordinated interventions of many interested agencies. Central to a solution is the close cooperation of forestry and energy departments. It was found that forestry departments are generally better organized and equipped than energy departments to deal with crucial traditional energy issues on the supply side. The acceleration of initiatives in this area (through development of community-based management of forests) is creating a dichotomy between ministries with the risk that energy departments focusing on the demand side will fall more and more behind unless they are strengthened in the process They need no large increases in staff, but rather the creation of a small core of experts in traditional energy who are capable of working across departmental boundaries. Regional cooperation is seen as an important aspect of the needed capacity building tasks, through exchange of experiences in interdepartmental cooperation and by peer reviews of project and program preparation work. 25 Integration in overall rural Development 3.29 Fuelwood management schemes should be integrated in overall rural development. Future projects could consider as complementary components the introduction of photovoltaic solar power (for village water pumps, clinics, telecommunications, community TV and distance education), maintenance of feeder roads, schools improvement, etc. A strong case can be made for an explicit recognition of the role of women through their own organizations in the drawing up of local management plans, in the approval process and in the subsequent implementation, including the use by the community of net profits of fuelwood sales. Development of human Resources 3.30 The ongoing experimental work shows already that the re-orientation of the woodfuel supply industry requires training and re-training of virtually all economic agents. Villagers need to learn techniques of sustainable production, elementary management skills and at a later stage marketing. The training requirements for the forestry services are no less demanding. Agents need to change their approach from police-oriented protection of the forests to support services for the rural population. Finally, where urban oligopolies dominate the markets, the controlling interests, as concerned elements of civic society, should be implicated in the dialogue. Orientation of external Aid 3.31 Past external aid has been driven mostly by the project approach which may yield. only localized results with little impact on the sector as a whole. Without a well-articulated policy, governments missed a screening device to judge where donor aid would be most appropriate. The relative availability of aid gave rise to the search for projects to perpetuate local structures, thus dispersing scarce African human resources. In the context of community-managed woodfuel production schemes, the RPTES review makes the following recommendations: Reach a clear understanding between recipients and donors on the principles, processes and fiscal incentives for forestry management by rural communities; Identify local solutions that are considered replicable and establish an infrastructure of human and material resources that is sufficient to create a multiplier effect; Determine a phased implementation plan, if viable combined with the introduction of other forms of renewable energy; Plan ahead for the training of economic agents at all levels (including training of instructors), in anticipation of long-term needs. 26 Country-specific Overviews Senegal 3.32 Of all five RPTES countries, Senegal has the highest GNP per capita, the highest rate of urbanization and the advantage of a maritime location conducive to development of industry and transport In the traditional energy sector, these factors have translated into a strong movement away from fuelwood towards charcoal use and, in turn, a significant penetration of LPG replacing charcoal in the large urban concentrations. 3.33 Because of the low conversion efficiency, the move to charcoal has accelerated the demand for primary fuelwood and the depletion of standing stocks. Exploitation has moved to more remote areas in the Southeast, and overland transportation distances have lengthened to 500 km. Over the years, commercial interests have worked closely with the forestry services of the Government, to the detriment of environmentally responsible conservation policies and the traditional rights of the rural population. This situation is an outgrowth of forestry legislation going back to the colonial period, which declared all forests property of the State and confided the exploitation of the resource to urban dwellers.The dwindling forestry resource base is beginning to cause Government concem, and the first steps are being taken, if not to halt, at least to put a brake on the systematic clearing of the remaining forest lands. The absence of a reliable biomass inventory hampers the identification of longer-term actions, but rough estimates tend to show that better management of the forests could substantially slow down the pace of degradation. 3.34 A lasting solution of the resource exploitation problem requires the full cooperation of the rural population, and it should be promoted by a system of incentives that effectively transfer woodfuels revenue from the urban commercial interests to the villagers. The identified main priorities for action are: * The Government should commission a comprehensive inventory of forestry- and other biomass resources, in conjunction with a survey of land use; this work should be set up with a view to periodic updating that will permit monitoring of standing stocks (RPTES has been supporting some initial efforts by the Centre de Suivi Ecologique in Dakar). Forests lands should be unambiguously assigned to the State as protected reserves and to the local communities which would have the option to participate in the exploitation of the resource (including charcoal manufacturing). The Orders-in-Council that will implement the new forestry code should provide for decentralized co-management of forest resources by the local communities, including the right to retain resource revenues for local use, under the provisions of an approved local forest management plan. 27 Gambia 3.35 Gambia's unusual geography is basic to an understanding of its energy problems. The country comprises the 40 kmn wide Gambia River Valley extending from the Atlantic Ocean in an Easterly direction over 400 km, and surrounded by Senegalese territory. At present, Gambia's woodfuel problems are mainly found at the extreme Western end of the country in the Greater Banjul Area (GBA), where one third of the population lives. The secondary urban centers in the interior are, economically speaking, small islands separated by long rural stretches that have the shortest communications links with Senegal. This being the case, the energy demand-supply situation in the secondary centers and in the rural areas is neither critical nor controllable in a strictly Gambian context. The Government has attempted to protect the environment by prohibiting the manufacture of charcoal in The Gambia and by making the cutting of green trees for use as fuelwood illegal. However, it is not evident that woodfuel supply as such has played a major role in the degradation of the forests. The more significant factors appear to be population growth and slash-and-bum agriculture. 3 36 The regional report made the following main recommendations: Without revoking the ban on domestic production of charcoal, the legalization of the import and trade of charcoal should be examined, in conjunction with the means needed to monitor the product flows effectively. Government should legalize the transfer of management responsibility for forests to local population, thus permitting the multiplication of the existing demonstration projects. * Harvesting of green trees for woodfuel should be permitted in zones that have been brought under community management, under the provisions of agreed management plans between the communities and the Forestry Department. * It is recommended to make a second biomass inventory, which will permit the analysis of change in land use since 1980, and the establishment of permanent sample plots to measure productivity regularly. To maintain a broad spectrum of consumer choices of fuels, every effort should be made by the private sector to reduce the cost of hydrocarbon fuels as substitutes, in particular by attempting to lower the cost of importing, storing and bottling LPG. The prospects of kerosine should be further examined. The Energy Division of the responsible ministry should be adequately staffed and trained to take care of minimum requirements for coordination and liaison, and to supervise the establishment of a central energy documentation center. 28 Burkina Faso 3.37. Owing to its location in the more Southern zone of the Sahel with higher rainfalls (600-1000 mm), Burkina still can count on a significant biomass resource base. The country has made considerable progress in promoting sustainable forest management by the local population. Beginning in 1986, a pilot project has been successfully implemented and gradually extended in the Nazinon region and a few other districts South of Ouagadougou with the objective of supplying the capital with fuelwood produced under village management. Inventory work has advanced sufficiently to identify other regions around major urban centers that are suitable for similar schemes. 3.38 The recommendations focused on the following priority areas: The available elements of a master plan should be updated and integrated to define a multi-year programme that would assure the future supply of all major urban centers from rural woodfuel markets in community-managed forests. Planning should consider transportation infrastructure and the possible introduction of other forms of renewable energy at the same time. * The threat of mushrooming inefficient charcoal production should be contained by organizing and mobilizing private sector operators, and by promoting energy- efficient charcoaling practices. * The in 1994 still more or less improvised Direction de l'Energie should be made permanent and given well-defined responsibilities in the traditional energy sector. Mali 3.39 Mali's vast territory includes all the climatic zones found in the Region and traditional energy sector problems vary accordingly, from relative abundance in the Westem and Southwestem areas to scarcity farther eastwards in the Niger Valley, where transportation distances are so large that substitution of petroleum fuels, notably kerosine, is not an evident solution. Compared to the other countries, Mali has a reasonably accurate biomass inventory and the available maps, once enlarged, can be utilized to prepare conmnunity forestry management plans. On the demand side, donors have done much to assist wood stove promotion and dissemination, helped by Government intervention under direction of the Department of Social Affairs. 3.40 The work on both the supply- and demand side resulted in the formulation of a Household Energy Strategy (Strategie Energie Domestique - SED) in 1991, which is supported by a significant donor constituency. This plan was followed by the passage of enabling legislation to transfer the responsibility of natural resource management to the local communities in December 1994. Despite the progress made, some internal obstacles remain. with respect to the future role for the forestry services and the future fiscal management of the sector. 29 3.41 Taking into account the progress already made in the existing Household Energy Strategy, the regional report made the following complementary recommendations: A common reflection of Government and donors on the incentive structure to be associated with villagers' responsibility for resource management, and a re- examination of the role of woodfuel taxation. Based on the existing inventory data, development of master plans for woodfuel supply to all major urban centers. * Extension of the inventorization to biomass stocks on cultivated land. An assessment of the role of the Forestry Services in extension activities, and of the associated needs for retraining. Nierr 3.42 Of all Sahelian countries in the RPTES group, Niger has the most fragile biomass resource basis, found in the relatively small non-desert areas of the national territory. These same regions contain also the centers of a rapidly growing population exerting pressure on the scarce agricultural and forested lands. The remaining "forests" often contain large denuded areas ("forets tigrees") which facilitate access by nomadic herders and increase the risk of conflicts with sedentary populations. 3.43 On the demand side, much donor money has been spent on improved woodstoves, but from a purely energy standpoint these programs have only bought some time. On the supply side, the organization of rural woodfuel markets is moving out of the experimental stage. The organization and the fiscal schemes appear complex and heavily slated towards Government interventions and the pricing- and taxation schemes are difficult to administer. Given Niger's scarce forestry resources, it is the country where the search for affordable substitutes is most urgent. The options being tried out are the large-scale introduction of kerosine and the utilization of carbonized domestic coal. 3.44 As in the preceding case of Mali, the recommendations are selective rather than comprehensive, taking into account the ongoing implementation processes: Localized inventories of forestry and biomass resources need to be either started or completed, together with a verification of sustainable yields. The role of the State in resource management should be reviewed in the sense of more selective use of taxes and avoidance of earmarking revenues from woodfuel taxes to support the budget of the public forestry services. 30 a In view of Niger's scarce natural biomass resources, the promotion of planned agroforestry has a high priority. * The prospects of large-scale substitution of domestic carbonized coal for fuelwood should be properly investigated for their relevance to future energy policy and to the regional economy of North-Central Niger. 3] IV. THE RPTES IMPLEMENTATION EXPERIENCE Program Organization 4.1 The concept of a policy review rather than a retroactive review of projects had important consequences for the implementation. The conventional and straightforward approach would have been to write terms of reference, engage a team of international consultants, supervise the work and discuss the end result with our African counterparts. Usually, if such an effort is part of project preparation, the prospect of the associated financing may be enough to secure counterpart cooperation. But how can one motivate counterparts when a regional policy study is proposed? There is no guarantee that immediate financing of projects will follow, and the subject matter may be a good deal more sensitive than the limited context of a specific project, making participation in effect more risky for Africans. 4.2 Nevertheless the RPTES team in the Bank concluded that, given the policy nature of the study, country ownership was not only desirable, but indispensable to a credible follow-up effort beyond the study stage. All plans for heavy up-front expatriate involvement were shelved and instead the project started with visits to energy officials in the five selected countries with the objective (i) to gain acceptance of the idea; (ii) to secure formal commitment of governments to cooperate; and (iii) to locate in each country a core group of about five persons who would be willing to spearhead their national contribution: To a surprising degree, the Government responses recognized that the RPTES would address a widely sensed policy gap. In order to appreciate fully the significance of the "classical" versus the "participatory" approach, it is instructive to see the corresponding organization charts. 4.3 Figure 2 is a blueprint (prepared at the very beginning of the RPTES Program), that should look familiar to experienced development practitioners. The donor, upon acquiring the financial resources, writes terms of reference for a consulting firm, specifying - prudently staged - implementation of the project, from desk study and workplan all the way to the final report. Although this setup makes the donor the client, the development aspect is recognized by: * the insertion of workshops providing the opportunity for Africans to have their say in the review process; * the establishment of an African Support Group (ASG), recruited from experts in the five sample countries, serving as a liaison organism in the field throughout the duration of the study; and * expected contributions of African consultants acting as subcontractors. 4.4 Despite these built-in consultative processes, the conclusion is inescapable that consultant activities are the centerpiece of the action, with African partners playing a 32 minor role as contributors of data and comments, and the donor limiting himself to supervision, a process governed by the terns of reference that he has written himself. Moreover, in terms of action on the ground the outcome is anything but clear: The final report is a product added to the arsenal of the donor, but the next steps still depend on the extent to which the recommendations are accepted in the countries concerned. 4.5 Turning now to Figure 3, depicting the actual RPTES process, the most striking difference with the "classical" model is the grouping of major activities by work in Africa (left), donor activities (right) and joint activities (center). Furthermore, the Program starts out with a joint activity, being the launching workshop (held in Bamako, Mali, in May 1993), with an audience comprising five country delegations, representatives of regional organizations and - at their request - observers of other donor organizations. This conference agreed on the following workplan: (1) Formation of an African Support Group to coordinate activities of the national teams and, in parallel, the preparatiQn of a draft literature review by Bank staff to orient the next stage. (2) The production by the national country teams of five draft country studies having a parallel structure. The teams would be periodically assisted by consultants financed under the RPTES Program but they would be acting essentially as animators and catalysts. (3) Discussion of the country studies in a second workshop (Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, February 1994), which would also identify common major policy themes for subsequent analysis. These thematic studies (by senior individual experts) would serve as inputs for the end products. The agreed topics for study were: The macroeconomic Significance of the traditional Energy Sector Demand Management and Substitution Issues Forestry Policy Inventorization of Biomass Resources (Stocks and Yields) Information Systems for the traditional Energy Sectors Institutional Aspects (4) Preparation of final country reports under responsibility of the national teams and of a draft regional report on policy by the Bank team that would draw on the matrix of country- and thematic studies. The results of these activities were discussed at a third workshop (Dakar, Senegal, November 1994). (5) Identification of projects and programs by the country teams, and preparation of the final regional report by Bank staff, for discussion at a donor experts' conference (held in Maastricht, The Netherlands, in May 1995). 4.6 It should be noted that the country studies played a continuous central role. They were not just "inputs" to a study by expatriate experts; rather the idea was that each 33 national team would contribute to the diagnosis of the regional report and, i'ice versa, incorporate the policy content of the regional report in its own study. to the extent that it finds the recommendations applicable and is willing to propose corresponding solutions in its own country for implementation. Thus the African studies were transformed in national instruments for internal and external policy dialogue and for program- or project identification. It was understood from the very beginning that, desirable as a common outcome might be, the country teams should feel free to dissent from donor views and, as the case might be, say so in their own reports. In other words, the entire process would end with dual outputs rather than with a "donor product". 4.7 Upon completion of the work, the Trust Fund Donor convened the Maastricht meeting of the African study teams, the RPTES coordinating team in the Bank and representatives of sister agencies. The agenda was somewhat different from the usual focus of donor meetings on financing of projects and/or programs. The Bank team presented its policy conclusions for discussions and, based on their respective country reports, the delegates of the African teams contributed their viewpoints on the subject matter. Furthermore, well thought-out African proposals for projects and programs were tabled for initial exploration of financing. By opening up the agenda in this way, the "Study Syndrome" was avoided: Presentation of end results of the RPTES was coupled with preparation of follow-up actions. 4.8 Coordination among country teams and with Bank staff is being assured by the African Support Group (ASG) made up by the five national teamleaders and a representative of CILSS, the regional African organization grouping nine Sahel countries. Management oversight is exercised by a Steering Committee in which two Bank units, the Trust Fund Donor, an African NGO and another UN-affiliated organization are represented. Program Execution 4.9 The experience with new approaches is bound to be a mix of pluses and minuses. In the case of the RPTES, the balance has been overwhelmingly positive. With no incentive other than the desire to address a perceived need in their respective countries, the African counterparts went to work with dedication and proved their capacity to deliver. The key to success was the conviction - which had to grow over time - that the Bank team was serious about letting Africans develop their own products and about having their own say. 4.10 The role of external consultants was minimized, which helped to foster a growing sense of country ownership, with important implications for donor-country communications. Throughout the RPTES Program execution, contacts between donor and Government at cabinet-level were sporadic. It was the national experts who kept their Ministers informed of progress and who made their case for recommended actions. As a result, the national programs and projects are emerging as country-driven proposals presented to the donors rather than the other way around. Although one would expect that 34 "country-owned" projects make life easier, the short-run experience was quite different. The African teams needed intermittent but steady assistance and disinterested help that can be given best by permanent donor staff. In a working relationship based on the premise of equality, much depends on mutual respect in the professional sense. It calls for intense involvement in all aspects of the work and a disposition to depart from preconceived notions as a result of a two-way learning process. These factors are readily appreciated with reference to the time spent by the contributing groups: Coordinating team (World Bank) 3 persons 70 man-months International consultants 6 persons 32 man-months African country teams 25 persons (est.) 100-120 man-months (est.) 4.11 The RPTES process as described above had important budgetary implications. The resources of foreign exchange initially available, based on an implementation period of 18 months, comprised: Trust Fund made available by DGIS to World Bank $ 1,090,000 Additional Funds by Danish Consultant Trust Fund $ 165,000 Estimated in-house staff resources World Bank S 50,000 TOTAL $ 1,305,000 The actual approach chosen to do the work had significant consequences: In terms of elapsed time, the tasks were acccomplished in 26 months instead of 18, but this extension of completion time by about 40% entailed an increase of only 11% in the budget. The difference was made up exclusively by additional internal World Bank staff resources rather than external funds. The largest shifts in expenditure categories occurred in the employment of internal resources (defined as permanent staff within the World Bank Group and full-time staff financed out of trust funds) and of external international consultants. The expenditure breakdowns corresponding to Figure 2 (original plan) and Figure 3 (actual plan) are as follows (amounts in thousands of US dollars): Original Actual Internal resources 300 23% 590 41% External resources 705 54% 425 290/o Other 300 23% 440 300/% Total 1305 100% 1455 100% 4.12 The percentages seem to illustrate rather strikingly the effect of operating in a participatory mode. One could conclude from the "Actual" columns that the working method resulted in significant savings in expenses on international consultants, but that a price was paid in terms of a stepped-up commitment of Bank staff, going far beyond the more customary supervision responsibilities. Nevertheless, it should be kept in mind that the headings "Original" and "Actual" do not represent two alternatives to obtain the same 35 product. The approach considered originally would have resulted in a consultants' study without any certainty that the countries would have acted immediately or acted at all on the recommendations. The actual process led to country-owned results that were followed by African-led initiatives. Two important lessons can be drawn from this experience: (1) Shifting of responsibilities and work loads to aid recipients does not necessarily save money in the short run, but it does permit a reallocation of resources that better responds to long-term interests. When the development process and its costs are viewed as a continuum (i.e. from study all the way to implementation), a genuinely participatory approach does produce substantial savings; and (2) The significant increase of in-house donor resources suggests that continuous cuts of permanent staff by aid agencies may undermine the very processes that they seek to promote. Overall aid budgets are a mix of resources for technical assistance and investment, with technical assistance often a small fraction of allocations for investment. It would be completely counterproductive to save minor amounts of money on those up- front activities that are critical to the effectiveness of the much larger portion of development aid destined for investments. 4.13 The RPTES Coordinating Group was very much encouraged by the ideas on foreign aid found in a note by the Development Cooperation Information Service of The Netherlands, published in September 1995 (Ref.[20]). The message is summed up as follows: "Development assistance is intended to help people. Not to do their work for them. It must therefore be organized in such a way that those for whom it is intended play a key role right from the start. Donors, including The Netherlands, have been imposing their views about development on the recipient countries for far too long. There has not been much in the way of cooperation on an equal footing. This has to change, declares the Government's Explanatory Memorandum." This statement, coming from the principal financier of the RPTES, may be viewed as a strong endorsement of the process that the group has been trying to initiate in the traditional energy sector in West Africa. 4.14 It should be recognized that the achievements to date were made possible by a number of factors that are not always present. First, the RPTES is a piece of sector work, and as such it was not tied to the rigidities of a donor-driven processing calendar for loans and credits. Therefore one can easier live with the risks and sometimes the delays resulting from working with new partners. Second, the RPTES draws on policy experience in five countries; gaps in one country's analysis are frequently offset by insights drawn from the neighbour's situation, thus diminishing the strong dependence on counterparts that would exist in a one-country study. Finally, since the sample group of countries have in common 36 either old or more recently established democratic traditions, policy problems can be discussed in an atmosphere of openness that is still far from universal in Africa. The frankness encountered would have been inconceivable as recently as seven years ago. Reflections on Capacity Building and Mobilization 4.15 Working side by side is the best way to discover how many professionally trained human resources exist in Africa already. At the same time, so much talent seems to go to waste that at times one wonders why more people should be trained if large numbers are destined to remain underemployed or are compelled to seek their fortunes abroad. A striking example is Mali, where young unemployed persons with higher education try to advance their interests through a national organization counting members in the thousands. A few years ago, a newspaper advertisement for 50 temporary field positions to make donor-financed surveys produced 800 applicants, of which less than 15 % did not meet the job requirements. 4.16 One of the characteristics of the development process is dependence on expatriates for technology, finance and management. Emancipation begins by training nationals, but parity in the professional sense is no guarantee of equality. Fresh talent must be managed, and without such management it can easily be frittered away over time. National organizations are often controlled by a generation that was formed in the times that higher education was not the beginning of a truly professional career but rather the key to privilege and, aided by connections, to lucrative positions without well-defined content. The resulting organizational structures tend to be bureaucratic, ineffective, and poorly equipped to absorb new talent, let alone to develop it purposely. A promising young graduate may find himself or herself parachuted in a position that offers no challenge and be stranded without any guidance. In the public sector, frequent changes at ministerial level can result in arbitrary transfers that disrupt career development. To make matters worse, Government finance, when barely adequate to meet the payroll, may deprive staff from even the most elementary logistic support. It is no wonder that recuperation of individual national capabilities becomes increasingly difficult with time, to the point that eventually it is a lost cause. 4.17 These situations are tailor-made for engaging foreign consultants. To get anything going at all at the level of studies or implementation, they are called in by donors as the only way to keep the external aid program on schedule. Their association with nationals serves primarily the needs for logistics and administration. As long as professional participation remains auxiliary, there is no threat of national competition gradually taking over the market for consulting services. Donors row against the stream when they insist that nationals be trained by consultants as a condition of the contract. A business organization will always focus on completing a job on schedule, and training is bound to take the backseat if it is perceived as a potential drag. Thus, years of foreign consulting activity create a self-perpetuating dependence for the country and a continuing monopoly for expatriates. 37 4.18 Like in all monopolistic markets, one pays eventually a price in terms of declining quality. Much work originating from expatriates becomes a repeat business, often skillfully packaged but not distinguished by new insights. However, all too often there is a tendency to blame consultants while it is forgotten that their work is oriented by terms of reference not of their own making. Whatever the causes of dissatisfaction, as national skill levels grow without finding an outlet, foreigners will encounter increasing resentment. The RPTES Program has been entirely free of such negative experiences. It is true that the structures that have been formed are still fragile, but it has already become clear that is it a mistake to seek the remedy for weaknesses only in terms of "capacity building", suggesting that the needed talent is not available. The more immediate approach should be "capacity mobilization", i.e. better management of the underutilized resources on hand. 4.19 To gain a different perspective on the problem, it is instructive to examine the similarities between Africa today and Latin America in the 1950s. Although Latin American countries had a much longer history as independent nations than most African countries today, they remained technologically under foreign domination until the end of World War II. Today, by and large they can look after themselves, appealing to expatriate assistance only for those specialties where the foreigner has a comparative advantage; i.e. they act the same as any high-income country. How did they do it? Besides the promotion of professional training of nationals abroad and at home, they created two enabling conditions that are still largely lacking in Africa: (i) Just as in Western countries, the professions organized themselves in learned societies and trade organizations; and (ii) as a condition of entry, Governments obliged foreign consultants to associate themselves with local firms. These two elements are linked because one cannot oblige expatriate firms to associate with local firms that lack a visible presence. Such measures did not assure success overnight, but they set in motion a process that did mature over several decades. 4.20 The problem in much of Sub-Saharan Africa is that few professions are effectively organized, and governments have been too pre-occupied with short-term crises to foster the long-term development of their own nationals. It is no coincidence that the initial search for counterparts in the RPTES resulted in the choice of mostly government officials, simply because they are one of the few visible groups of professionals that can be mobilized on short notice. However, it would be a mistake to think that Africa is not ready for more vigorous action. In the private sector, the large international accounting/auditing firms have absorbed nationals for years, formed formal associations with local firms that are induced to work to international standards, and they created partnership positions for African talent. There is no reason why this example should not be emulated in other professions, and why governments should not confidently support the initiatives by the private sector to enhance the profile of the professions. The accelerated development of technology and communications warrants the expectation that a process that took some 30 years in Latin America may be achieved in Africa in a much shorter period. 38 V. ONGOING FOLLOW-UP ACTIVITIES Country Activities in the original Group Senegal 5.1 The country team members have noted that, apart from content, the RPTES approach has created a policy vision as a unifying influence among the various agencies operating in the sector. Expectations in May 1995, on the eve of the Maastricht conference, were somewhat exaggerated because the technical gathering of Donor experts was interpreted at the time as a customary donors' meeting focusing on funding. However, based on the Maastricht proposals, and with the continued support of the Bank Group, the preparation of a $19 million national program is now well advanced, including agreements on financing with IDA/GEF and DGIS, and with the prospect of other bilateral donors joining. 5.2 The centerpiece of the Program is the introduction of sustainable forest management by village conumunities in a zone of about 300,000 hectares in Southeastern S6n6gal, the part of the country most threatened by deforestation. The Program will be implemented over seven years. The management systems will be developed within a broader framework of natural resource management, taking account of land tenure issues and the development needs of the participating rural communities. On the demand side, the Program provides for technical support of the reorganization of the charcoal industry, including the diversification that is necessary to make room for new rural producers entering the trade. Gambia 5.3 The head of the Gambia RPTES team (appointed Director of Energy in 1995) has stated that, despite the temporary interruption of some forms of foreign aid in 1994, the agents in the traditional energy sector continue to endorse and internalize the RPTES process. Proposals tabled in Maastricht have been further worked out and the new documentation was distributed to all line ministries. The Government is fully committed to priority actions in the field of traditional and renewable energies and several donor countries have expressed their interest in providing financial support. Burkina Faso 5.4 Government acted on RPTES recommendations by establishing a Ministry of Energy, thus putting an end to the dispersion of public sector activities among four different agencies. The new Ministry has three sub-Directorates, of which one is responsible for Traditional Energy. The Burkina RPTES team leader was appointed Director-General of the new Ministry. The country team has noted that the organization of the Maastricht meeting as a conference of donor experts rather than donors in fact facilitated the participation of Burkinabe technicians. 39 5.5 Resumption of work on the Maastricht proposals, with the support of a Bank follow-up mission, resulted in a program costing about $ 20 million. Most of the funds will be employed in the expansion of sustainable forest management, based on the models that have been successfully developed since 1989. Pilot schemes at the time (covering 25,000 hectares) have already been expanded to 100,000 hectares, and external aid has been committed for another 170,000 hectares. The latest proposals envisage another expansion of 300,000 hectares, which would effectively put the exploitation of the Central Plateau (for supply of woodfuel to the capital Ouagadougou) on a sustainable basis. The RPTES Program has stimulated renewed donor interest which, for the moment, takes the form of a tripartite cooperation World Bank - The Netherlands - Denmark to help Burkina Faso in the continuing program preparations. In parallel, institutional support for the new Ministry of Energy, a high priority, is being arranged.. Mali 5.6 At the start of the RPTES Program, Mali had already made considerable headway in the formulation of a Household Energy Strategy (HES) during 1991 and 1992, and to which the RPTES added new elements. Mali officials have conveyed that the RPTES program leading up to the Maastricht conference has had a very positive effect, notably by accelerating the implementation of the HES (financing was approved in 1995) and by the Government establishing a Comite National de Coordination (CNC) for the subsector. The integrated HES program is going ahead, cofinanced by DGIS and GEF, with parallel financing of the French and German cooperation. The BES will include a study of gender issues and the organization of a national forum on traditional energy in the second half of May 1996. Other outstanding matters of interest are the utilization of leguminous oil as a fuel for small-scale mechanical and electrical power production, and the use of agricultural residues. Niger 5.7 The Maastricht conference stimulated new donor interest in traditional energy, especially by the cooperation agencies of The Netherlands and Denmark. Future donor support for traditional energy is likely to be incorporated within the broader framework of natural resource management, which is a logical step, given Niger's scarce endowment of forestry resources. The Niger team also observed that the RPTES Program has solidified the team spirit in the country and generated a new dynamism. The main results of Bank- and other donors' activities are: * the World Bank decision in September 1995 to extend the financing of ongoing traditional energy activities by another year, to December 1996; * Agreement with Denmark to have a consultant study the integration of actions in traditional energy sector with planned natural resource management programmes; and * Identification of external financial support to pursue the issue of coal utilization in households, raised in RPTES studies (see para. 5.8). 40 Continuation of regional Activities Studies 5.8 Several new regional studies are planned, in support of further policy actions. The most important ones are: A Comparitive Study of Models of Village-based Management of Woodfuel Production will examine in more detail the experience already gained in the five countries with alternative approaches. The regional study will take advantage of similar planned or ongoing studies of certain components within the national programs, e.g. the scheduled study of gender issues in the traditional energy sector in Mali. Study of the Economic Cost of Petroleum Products substituting for Woodfuels. The true economic cost of petroleum fuels is a basic parameter in assessing the merits of schemes aimed at displacing woodfuels. In many countries the reglementation by governments has distorted the pricing mechanisms so much that the reference points for interfuel comparisons are lost. The planned study will focus on the economic aspects of supplying kerosine and butane at major depots, taking into account cif import costs and costs of transportation and storage en route, all as a function of the tonnages involved. The study will also identifyy the potential cost savings of pooling procurement and integrating storage facilities among several countries. Evaluation of mineral Coal in Niger as a Woodfuel Substitute. Niger has developed a process to pyrolyse indigenous low-quality coal for use as a household cooking fuel. The product (lumps or briquettes) has found an excellent consumer acceptance but a broader economic and financial evaluation remains to be undertaken. Although at present a national project, it has a regional dimension owing to the interest of adjoining countries. Communications 5.9 Thus far, the implementation of the RPTES Program has already been much enhanced by regular contacts among African experts, who contributed by peer reviews of national country reports and who exchanged experiences with the structuring of national programs. These contacts will be further developed by establishing an E-mail communication network among the five countries (in some cases the upgrading of existing facilities is all that is needed), which in tum will pemit the setup of a decentralized regional data bank. Once these two elements are in place, regular publicity by means of a regional newsletter can follow. Notwithstanding the many advantages of electronic communications, personal exchanges have proved most valuable, and cross-country study visits will continue. Training. 5.10 In view of the positive results achieved, every effort is being made to further advance the Africanization of the RPTES Program. After examination of several options, 41 Bank staff and Africans concluded that recruitment within Africa is the best way to strengthen the existing structures, and furthernore that the remuneration of new staff should be reasonably close to the prevailing national pay scales to ensure sustainability after cessation of foreign aid. 5.11 Systematic development of African capacity in policymaking encounters still many obstacles. In the countries of our concern, no defined career paths exist in the African civil service. Too many directors lack the motivation to build up the service for which they are responsible. They hold their posts in the hope of either becoming a minister or of joining an intemational organization. At lower levels, recruiting levels are hampered by the "project shopping syndrome": Competent Africans sell their services for relatively short periods to the highest bidder, often - indirectly - the donor who can afford to pay premia as incentives. Such practices undermine the objective of building sustainable national institutions. The RPTES Program is seeking a solution in the direction of national pay at more or less the going rates, coupled with a work program providing on-the-job training that is interspersed with formal modules of education at institutions of higher learning. The package of practical work and theoretical study could be structured to count as credits toward a higher degree, and thus consolidate the capacity building efforts. Geographic Extension of the RPTES Program 5.12 The World Bank staff in Washington assigned to the RPTES Program is already working in Mauritania, Ethiopia and Mozambique, upon request of the responsible operating divisions in the Bank. Guinea has put together a national team, prepared some initial country analyses and requested RPTES assistance to stage a national seminar on traditional energy. Informally, Benin has shown a similar interest. The potential in East Africa may include Eritrea which, through a binational ministerial commission, cooperates with Ethiopia in biomass-related activities. Finall;, in addition to Mozambique, the contacts with the SADC Group have been maintained via the TAU in Luanda. 5.13 It is not clear at this date how all these demands can be accommodated institutionally. As far as West Africa is concerned, it has been agreed with the ASG to keep the present African core team intact, and to provide services on demand to countries on the periphery of the five-country group. In other words, to maintain an ad hoc approach and strengthen and expand the ASG in stages, as opportunities arise. The broader Context of Environmentally Sustainable Development 5.14 The regional report presented in Maastricht already points to the need to define traditional energy problems ultimately within a framework of land use and desertification issues. It is envisaged that, along with the establishment of a firmer data base, this sectoral broadening should be a process of organic growth of the RPTES Program in national contexts. For example, in the present country group the drafting of management contracts for rural communities may expand from the simple models encountered (derived from subsistence agriculture adjacent to forest land) to more complex models taking into account cash crop agriculture, interests of herders, division of labor, etc. In new zones or 42 countries, eg in Northern Ethiopia, a broader approach may be necessary from the very beginning. In an eventual exchange of experience among countries, West Africa could share a promising track record of participation and policy-making perspectives with other regions, while the experience with new multi-sectorial approaches elsewhere could benefit further program development in West Africa. 43 References 1. Sub-Saharan Africa - From Crisis to Sustainable Growth - World Bank, 1989 2. The Population, Agriculture and Environment Nexus in Sub-Saharan Africa . World Bank- Agnculture and Rural Development Series No. 1, Kevin Cleaver and Gotz Schreiber, May 1992 Published in book form as "Reversing the Spiral", December 1994 3. Opportunities for Sustained Development - Successful Natural Resources Management in the Sahel. Asif Shaikh (IRG) et al; Sunmary, Vol.1 Main Report, Vol. II Case Descriptions. Vol. III - Financial Analysis, Vol. IV Biodiversity; Oct. 1988. 4. The Segou Round Table - Report to USAID - May 22-27 1989 (prepared by Asif Shaikh E/DI) 5. Club du SahelUOECD/CILSS: Document de travail provisoire - Conference regionale sur la problematique fonciere et la decentralisation Praia (Cap Vert) mars 1994; Vol I: Le foncier et la gestion des ressources naturelles au Sahel - mars 1993 6. Club du Sahel/OECD/CILSS: ditto (Praia) mars 1994; Vol.11: Decentralisation au Sahel - mars 1993 7. Dossier Foncier/Decentralisation/Gestion des Ressources Naturelles: L'Integration des Femmes, 4 mars 1993, Rochette/Monimart 8. Land Tenure Center University of Wisconsin: Guide Pratique des Codes Forestiers du Mali, du Niger et du Sendgal, LTC Paper 139-F, avril 1990 9. CINERGIE (Booklet AfDB/OECD) juillet 1992 10. OECD/CINERGIE/AfDB: West African Long-term Perspectives: Population. Land and Development, Phase One December 1992 (two versions : french & english) 11. OECD/CINERGIE/AfDB: West African Long-term Perspectives: Compte rendu de la premiere reunion de diffusion de l'etude, Abidjan, 18 & 19 janvier 1993 12. Club du Sahel Newsletter No 14, Summer 1995 13. Club du Sahel: "West Africa Long Term Perspectives: regional opportunities and Policy Issues", September 1995 14. Managing Change: The Population, Enviromment and Development Nexus in the Sahel, by Asif Shaikh (International Resources Group) and Serge Snrech (Club du Sahel) 15. OECD/CINERGIElAfDB; Integration Regionale en Afrique de l'Ouest, by BRAH Mahamane et Jean- Marc PRADELLE, 23 mars 1993 16. Club du Sahel: L'Environnement dans les Strategies de Ddveloppement au Sahel: Vers un Mode de Regulation Eco-Integrateur, by NDiaye et Mohamadou-Mansour Mars 1993 17. Club du Sahel: Decentralization - The Segou Imperative November 1989 18. Caisse Centrale de Cooperation Economique, Division des Etudes Generales: Notes et Etudes No 38. *'Energie et Developpement dans l'Afrique au sud du Sahara", Jacques Giri, janvier 1991 44 19. Club du Sahel: Ecology and Rural Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: Selected Case Studies August 1988 20. Begroting 1996: Ontwikkelingssamenwerking en herijking buitenlands beleid ("Budget 1996: Development cooperation and the recalibration of foreign policy", Information Ser-ice of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, The Hague, The Netherlands) 21. "Beyond the Fuelwood Crisis" - People, Land and Trees in Africa, by Gerald Leach & Robin Mearns. 1988 22. "The Fuelwood Trap" - A Study of the SADCC Region", by Barry Munslowv et al, 1988 23. "Bringing Stoves to the People" - An Assessment of Impact, by S. Joseph et al, FWD Publication, 1990 24. "Le bois-6nergie au Sahel" - Environnement et developpement - by Hamed Sow, 1990, CTA Wageningen 25. "Sustainable Energy Economy" - Sectoral Policy Document of Development Cooperation No 4 - Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 1993 26. "'. . sehold Energy Handbook" - An Interim Guide and Reference Manual - Gerald Leach and .:ia Gowen, World Bank Technical Paper No. 67, July 1987 45 Glossary of Symbols and Abbreviations AfDB African Development Bank ASG African Support Group CERPOD Centre d'Etudesety de Recherche pour la Population et le Developpement CILSS Comite Inter-etatique de la Lutte contre la Secheresse dans le Sahel CNC Comite National de Coordination DGIS Direktoraat-Generaal voor Intemationale Samenwerking GBA Greater Banjul Area GDP Gross Domestic Product GEF Global Environmental Fund GNP Gross National Product HES Household Energy Strategy IDA International Development Association LPG Liquid petroleum Gas NGO Non-Govermnental Organization OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development RPTES Review of Policies in the Traditional Energy Sector SADC Southem Africa Development Community SED Strategie Energie Domestique TAU Technical Assitance Unit UMOA Union Monetaire de l'Afrique de l'Ouest UNDP United Nations Development Programme WALTPS West Africa Long Term Perspectives Study Ficure! RPTES COUN'TRI' SELECTION g ~~~~~~~~S. knL) l~~~e~a 19 : 00 L~~~Gmi -2 - Region ZON 99 0 0 Fizure 2 RPTES ORGANIZATION .LTERNATIVE I STEERIRANG COINIMITTEE AFRICA CONSULTANT DONOR L I ~~TERMvS OF REFERENCE| ; | ~~~SUPERVISION DESK STUDY WORJC PLAN AFRICAN SUPPORT l WORKSHOP I GROUP +|FIELD PROGRESS; I |TREI REPORT 2 WOR]CSHOP II Ld LOCAI CONSULTANTS.. _-d-W FIELD VISITS i .. ~~~~~ROUND 11 | DRAFT NAL L REPOR l < - I ~~FINAL RPORT _ Figure 3 RPTES ORGANIZATION ALTERNATIVE 11 IACTUAL) STEERING LCOMIMITTEE AFRICA JOINT ACTIVITIES' DONOR jo - | \&~ORKSHOP1 AFRICAN SUPPORTPHSI GROUP |OVERVIEW DRAFT COLNTRY STUDIES I WORKSHOP ID L _ | ~~THEMATICi I FINAL COUNTRY R | DRAFT REGIONAL STUDIES I REPORT WORKSHOP 111b E_PROJECTPROGRAM F__ __ _ _ FNAL REGIONAL IDENTIFICATION I 1 REPORT _____________ MEETING WITH _ DONOR EXPERTS S P IMPLEMENTATION CONTINUATION OF REGIONAL PROGRAM SENEGAL MULTILATERAL EXTENSIONS: BURKINA FASO AND NIGER BILATERAL GUINEA Etc. SUPPORT MAURITANIA MOZAMBIQUE ETHIOPIA Etc.