45569 China Urban Development Issue 5 7 ~ 9.2008 Quarterly Earthquake Recovery and Wenchuan Earthquake relief and recovery operations, as well as strategic directions for the Government were Reconstruction: International introduced. World Bank specialists and other international Experience and Best Practice experts addressed their presentations in a broader disaster risk management context. Their perspectives covered Workshop framework for recovery and reconstruction, damage assessment, reconstruction planning, social impact, liveli- In response to the devastating earthquake that struck hood restoration and economic recovery, as well as catas- Wenchuan County in Sichuan Province on May 12, trophe risk funding. Speakers from India, Turkey, and the 2008, the Government of China and the World Bank United States gave tangible examples of post-disaster jointly organized a workshop on Earthquake Recovery reconstruction experiences following the Gujarat Earthquake and Reconstruction: International Experience and Best (India), the Marmara Earthquake (Turkey), Hurricane Practice in Beijing on June 12, 2008. The objective of Katrina, and the Northridge Earthquake (US). the workshop was to share international experience and lessons learned from previous post-disaster There're several important points related to post-disaster reconstruction and recovery planning efforts, which recovery and reconstruction raised in the workshop: could be adapted and utilized by key government ministries and agencies in China that are now begin- Drawn from World Bank's previous global experience in ning to deliberate and draft reconstruction plans for helping its client countries conduct successful post-disaster earthquake affected areas. Ministry of Finance Vice reconstruction and recovery efforts, a conceptual framework Minister Wang Jun and World Bank Country Director for designing sustainable reconstruction and recovery David Dollar co-chaired the meeting. More than 100 programs is shown in Figure 1; it comprises five key aspects participants from the Government of China and various of vision, guiding principles, elements of a recovery Chinese academic institutions attended, including staff process, recovery continuum, and cross-cutting issues. from the affected provinces. Activities following an earthquake or any major disaster The keynote presentation was given by Professor Shi are recognized to occur in major phases as shown in Peijun, Advisor to the State Council on the Wenchuan Figure 2. As indicated in the diagram, planning for long-term Earthquake Response, during which the status of reconstruction has to begin early in the recovery phase, which will involve key policy decisions. A comprehensive damage and needs assessment follow- ing a disaster is required to lay the foundation for the Earthquake Recovery Workshop continued on page 2 Contents: Earthquake Recovery and Reconstruction: International Experience and Best Practice Workshop.............................................................................................................1 News & Resources.......................................................................................................3 Chongqing Urban Environment Project (2000-2008)....................................................6 China Urbanizes: Consequences, Strategies, and Policies...................................8 China and the Urbanism of Ambition.................................................................11 Preparing for China's Urban Billion.................................................................14 Liveable Cities: The Benefits of Urban Environmental Planning.......................16 Workshop on Legislative Reform of China's Transport Sector ...............................18 Earthquake recovery and reconstruction: international Experience Sharing Program on Development Between China and Africa................19 experience and best practice workshop Photo: Ji You, World Bank Beijing Office THEWORLDBANK ChinaUrban DevelopmentQuarterly Special Feature 7~9 . 2008 reconstruction and recovery planning. Social, economic and environmental impacts are important to examine. The guiding principle for reconstruction is, building back better, which means new construction should meet modern standards, and review of past experience in this regard is needed, especially in terms of resettlement policies, design standards, building codes, construction supervision, etc.; Housing is a key sector, and several crucial decisions will need to be made very soon, primarily whether Figure 2: Phases of earthquake disaster response housing reconstruction will be predominantly local, on- Source: Saroj Kumar Jha, GFDRR site and owner-driven, or involve large-scale relocation This workshop was an important milestone, as it initiated and more top-down management. Following major the beginning of international technical support for the natural disasters in Pakistan (2005) and Indonesia (2004 post-earthquake recovery process. The complex scope & 2006), governments have utilized the more local, of work of the recovery program will comprise a huge owner-driven model; lessons learned from these experi- amount of work for line ministries at the national and ences show the involvement of communities in the provincial levels. The World Bank pledged its support to reconstruction process is essential. the government and offered to facilitate the mobilization of technical expertise and financing, as requested. A $1.5 Beyond buildings, people's livelihoods and basic million grant under Global Facility for Disaster Reduction services have been destroyed, which provides a unique and Recovery (GFDRR), which is hosted by the World opportunity to improve upon the pre-existing health and Bank, has been offered to support China's immediate education systems. recovery needs. While some of this funding was spent on purchasing tents to provide shelter for earthquake A long-term national disaster risk management pro- affected families, most will be used to help assess gram should be a national priority, supported by institu- damage and losses from the earthquake and to support tional measures and programs that focus on risk sustainable reconstruction planning and future disaster identification, assessment, capacity building, emergency prevention efforts. preparedness, and risk financing and insurance options. The impact of natural disasters has increased alarmingly worldwide, between 1990 and 1999, losses were more than 15 times higher than they were between 1950 and 1959. In recognition that disaster losses can eliminate years of development, the World Bank has developed considerable flexibility to support natural disaster recovery and reconstruction, assistance has included lending and non-lending support, the latter including advisory and other forms of technical assistance. Assistance has spanned multiple sectors, including urban development, environment, infrastructure, education, health, and social impacts. (To download the presentations of the workshop in both Chinese and English, please visit World Bank's Chinese website at Figure 1: Sustainable recovery and reconstruction framework http://www.worldbank.org.cn/Chinese/ ) Source: Saroj Kumar Jha, GFDRR 2 ChinaUrban DevelopmentQuarterly News & Resources 7~9 . 2008 this year aim to address environmental challenges through improvement of public transport systems, World Bank response to expansion of urban wastewater treatment and pollution control, and strengthened approaches to energy Wenchuan earthquake efficiency. Through the new Xi'an Sustainable Urban Transport Project (US$150 million), bus prioritization, bicycle routs, traffic calming and speed-reducing strategies will be introduced in an effort to foster better In the aftermath of the devastating Wenchuan earth- road use and access to cultural sites, to address the quake in Sichuan Province, the World Bank has sup- challenge of balancing preservation of its cultural ported China with an initial $1.5 million grant through the heritage with the demands of a modern city. Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). This grant has helped to provide emergency (For more information about World Bank projects, tents and will provide technical assistance for the please visit http://www.worldbank.org/projects) reconstruction effort. The Bank also mobilized a team of international experts, many with experience in other recent earthquakes such as in Turkey and Pakistan. These international experts met with Chinese counter- parts in the central and local government who are in charge of reconstruction planning. The World Bank also Commission on Growth & prepared a policy advisory note on global good practice in earthquake recovery and reconstruction for Chinese Development: five habits of government shortly after the earthquake. The World Bank has recently also provided a Global Environment successful economies Facility(GEF) grant of US$1 million to support assess- ment of chemical contamination in the earthquake. (For more information, please visit World Bank's The Commission on Growth & Development launched a Chinese website at report: The Growth Report: Strategies for Sustained http://www.worldbank.org.cn/Chinese/) Growth and Inclusive Development on May 21 2008 in London and New York. The Commission is the result of two years work on the requirements for sustained and inclusive growth in developing countries led by 19 experienced policymakers and two Nobel prize-winning World Bank's lending to China in the economists. According to Mike Spence, Nobel laureate 2008 fiscal year reaches US$1.5 billion and commission chair on a Seminar held in IMF on April 10, "fast growing urban areas" is among the five com- with a focus on innovation for social and mon features of the 12 countries that have been suc- environmental challenges cessful in achieving sustained high growth, defined as average growth at or above 7 percent for a period of 25 years or more since World War II. The rest four features include engagement with the global economy, high Four new projects were approved on June 24 by the levels of investments and savings, resource mobility, World Bank's Board of Executive Directors, including the and functional investment environments. Rural Health Project, the Rural Migrant Skills Develop- ment and Employment Project, the Xi'an Sustainable (For more information about the report and the Urban Transport Project, and the ShiZheng Railway Commission, please visit Project. This has brought the organization's support for http://www.growthcommission.org/ ) innovative development projects in China in the 2008 fiscal year (June 30, 2007 ~ June 30, 2008) to a total of US$1.513 billion. Most World Bank projects approved 3 THE WORLD BANK ChinaUrban DevelopmentQuarterly News & Resources 7~9 . 2008 development knowledge and information. As part of the World Bank's Public Information Network, it provides World Bank Chief access to major publications, research reports and databases on development issues at the global, regional Economist: Justin Yifu Lin and country levels by the World Bank Group. Prof. Lin Gang, Vice President of Renmin University and Mr. David Dollar, World Bank Country Director for Justin Yifu Lin took up his China unveiled the DKC, witnessed by Prof. Ni Ning, position as World Bank Chief head of the Renmin University Library, Prof. Wen Economist and Senior Vice Tianjun, Dean of the School of Agriculture and Rural President on June 2, 2008. He Development, Ms. Elaine Sun, Operations Manager of succeeds Francois Bourguignon, the World Bank China Office, as well as representatives who retired from the Bank Group of the faculty and students. In his remarks at the last year to become Director of inauguration, Mr. David Dollar stressed the importance the Paris School of Economics. of knowledge. "Initially the World Bank provided loans World Bank Group President to the developing countries. But now the World Bank is Robert B. Zoellick said, "As our a knowledge bank," he said. "We provide knowledge to Photo: World Bank first chief economist from a the developing countries through analysis and research. developing country, and as an Personally I think that knowledge is more important than expert on economic development and particularly money. So we are very pleased to set up this Develop- agriculture, Justin brings a unique set of skills and ment Knowledge Center at the Renmin University which experience to the World Bank Group" , "I look forward is one of the great universities in China." to working closely with him on a number of areas, including growth and investment in Africa, opportunities for South-South learning, and Bank instruments to better support countries hit by high energy and agricultural prices." Global City Indicator Initiative: Justin has been professor and founding director of the helping cities measure, report China Center for Economic Research at Peking Univer- sity since 1993; vice chairman, Committee for Economic and improve performance Affairs of Chinese People's Political Consultation Conference; and vice chairman of the All-China Federa- tion of Industry and Commerce. In 1993 and 2001, he was A website was set up recently for the Global City awarded the Sun Yefang Prize, the highest honor for an Indicator Program initially sponsored by the World Bank economist in China. with funding provided by the Government of Japan Consultant Trust Fund. Focusing on cities of over 100,000 population, this program is structured around 22 "themes" into two categories that measure a range of Development Knowledge city services and quality of life factors. It is a decentralized, city-driven initiative that enables cities to Center inaugurated at measure, report, and improve their own performance and to facilitate capacity building and sharing of best Renmin University of China practices among cities through the use of indicators and a web-based relational database. (For more information, please visit A new Development Knowledge Center (DKC) was http://www.cityindicators.org/ ) officially inaugurated at the Renmin University of China on June 20 2008. A DKC is like a small library focused on 4 ChinaUrban DevelopmentQuarterly News & Resources 7~9 . 2008 The Concrete Dragon: China's Urban Revolution and What it Means for the World, by Thomas J. Campanella, Princeton Architectural Press, 2008 China is the most rapidly urbanizing nation in the world, with an urban population that may well reach one billion within a generation. Over the past 25 years, surging economic growth has propelled a construction boom unlike anything the world has ever seen, radically transforming both city and countryside in its wake. The speed and scale of China's urban revolution challenges nearly all our expectations about cities and how to plan and build and preserve them. China's ambition to be a major player on the global stage is etched on the skylines of every major city. This is a nation on the rise, and it is building for the record books. The Concrete Dragon: China's Urban Revolution and What it Means for the World explores this extraordi- nary chapter in world urban history, surveying the driving forces behind the great Chinese building boom, tracing the historical precedents and globalized ideas about architecture and urbanism that are shaping the new Chinese cityscape; and weighing the immense social and environmental impacts of rapid urbanization on the future of both China and the world. Jonathan Spence of Yale University has called Cover of The Concrete Dragon The Concrete Dragon "a fascinating and timely book Photo: Thomas J. Campanella that sets the scene for any further discussion of China's explosive urban growth across the last twenty years." British urbanist Sir Peter Hall writes: "Anyone interested in contemporary cities, anyone interested in contemporary China, has to read it." 5 THE WORLD BANK ChinaUrban DevelopmentQuarterly Project Profile 7~9 . 2008 Chongqing Urban Environment Project (2000-2008) Challenge Chongqing is a booming megalopolis at the confluence of two major rivers in southwest China. Together with rural areas and smaller towns, Chongqing municipality includes about 32 million people. When the project was prepared in the late 1990s, water supply was adequate but the urban center's wastewater system lagged far behind. Raw domestic and industrial sewage was discharged through over 600 outlets directly into the Yangtze and Jialing rivers, threatening the quality of water supply. Solid waste was disposed in unsanitary open sites or dumped illegally and randomly. Just when pollution loads were expected to rise because The restored Huguang Huiguan of rapid population and industrial growth, the opening Photo: Ji You, World Bank Beijing Office of the Three Gorges dam some 600 km downstream was set to diminish the flushing and assimilative capacity of growing city. the Yangtze river. Water quality has been improving steadily since 2003. In 2006, data collected by the city's Environmental Protection Bureau indicated that 90% of the river water Approach in Chongqing city met class II drinking water source standards and 100 % of the water met class III standards Initially, the municipality planned to build 21 wastewa- (on a scale of I to V, where III is still safe for drinking ter treatment plants scattered along the rivers - a scheme after treatment). that would have been very costly, occupied precious Organic waste matter measured in terms of Chemical real estate in a booming city and degraded the quality of Oxygen Demand and Biochemical Oxygen Demand at life for nearby residents by emitting malodorous gas. various monitoring sites along the Jialing and Yangtze The World Bank project proposed to modify the rivers has declined slightly or at least stabilized despite master plan by intercepting wastewater discharges all huge increases in pollution loads and the slowing-down along the city's river banks and channeling sewage to of the Yangtze river. two large-scale waste water treatment plants 15 km A modern, sanitary landfill meeting international downstream from the city center. standards has replaced district dump sites and hapha- The project's definition of urban environment was zard and hazardous garbage dumps, helping improve the expanded to include the restoration of a unique histori- urban environment in many neighborhoods and the cal site, the Huguan Huiguan merchants' guild complex, cleanliness of the city's rivers. The new landfill absorbs thereby enhancing the city's livability at a time of rapid between 1,500 and 2,000 tons of waste per day. change. Four wastewater interceptors and two large-scale waste water treatment plants now capture and treat most of the wastewater generated by residents and industries Results in Chongqing city. Daily, the new plants treat 900,000 m3 of wastewater' sewage which would otherwise have Modern sewerage and garbage disposal for a rapidly been discharged directly into the river. The Bank- 6 ChinaUrban DevelopmentQuarterly Project Profile 7~9 . 2008 financed plants are expected to treat 90% of the city's sewage when they reach full capacity by the project's Next Steps end in 2008. The appearance of the rivers has improved, with less Chongqing has become China's largest inland city and floating debris. continues to grow at a dizzying rate as the country The beautifully restored merchant's guild complex has urbanizes to escape poverty. Additional wastewater become a cultural and touristic asset, acting as a focal plants and landfills will be required to meet the city's point for urban renewal and development in a poor area increasing garbage and sewage outputs. of Chongqing city. World Bank Contribution Modified master plan generated important savings and quality of life enhancements for Chongqing. $200 million loan from the World Bank. Financing was significant at the time the project was approved in 2000 since China lacked resources for large-scale infrastruc- ture investments. Lower-then-expected construction costs and financing from the central government saved $70million. In 2002, these loan savings were redirected to address disparities between rural and urban areas in the sprawl- ing municipality-an issue that is now at the forefront of Chongqing Tangjiatuo wastewater treatment plant Photo: Ji You, World Bank Beijing Office the Chinese government's priorities. Improving living conditions (water, roads, flood control) in eight small counties served as a pilot for the follow-up Chongqing Small Cities Infrastructure Improvement project, which is In 2007, China's central government selected benefiting from a $180 million IBRD loan approved in Chongqing municipality to pilot approaches towards 2007. reducing rural and urban disparities in Western China. Helped transform public water and wastewater utilities The World Bank is helping to expand the reach of public into corporations and reform tariff strategy. Tariff utilities and services to poorer secondary cities and increases are putting utilities on a sustainable path and towns through its follow-up Small Cities Infrastructure generating resources for operations, maintenance and Improvement project. investments. Training and upgrading of management standards including technical training for the operation of modern landfill facility and wastewater treatment plants. (To learn more about the project through a slideshow, Created awareness of Chongqing's unique heritage please visit the Quarterly's website and helped raise the profile of Chongqing as a city of www.ChinaUrbanQuarterly.org.cn For more informa- culture. tion about World Bank projects, please visit A grant from the Japanese government (Policy and http://www.worldbank.org/projects) Human Resources Development grant) helped with project implementation, providing for example technical advice on the construction of a challenging interceptor pipeline tunneled under the Yangtze river. The Italian government provided a grant for technical assistance and design of the renovated merchant's guild complex. 7 THE WORLD BANK ChinaUrban DevelopmentQuarterly Insights & Perspectives 7~9 . 2008 China Urbanizes: Consequences, Strategies, and Policies Shahid Yusuf Global trends are pointing towards rapid urbanization in Assessing Urbanization in China Asia and Africa. As populations concentrate in urban areas, and most of the national product is generated by The urbanization process in China so far has been the urban sector, the focus of development activities will successful. First, China is one of the developing coun- be mainly urban. In this urbanizing world, China will be tries which have managed to moderate urbanization. And playing an important role by virtue of its size, and the partly for this reason, the growth of slums has been speed at which it is undergoing structural change. avoided except on the fringes of some of the largest cities. Living conditions, especially for migrant workers, are crowded but slum conditions are not common. Urbanization Facts Second, with the rapid growth of the economy, urban The sheer scale of the urbanization process in China has poverty has been contained. According to various no historical precedent. China's urban population was 77 estimates it ranges from 4 percent to 6 percent. And million in 1953 - approximately 16 percent of the total - urban unemployment is also low - in the 3-4 percent and 191 million in 1980. It reached 594 million or 45 range. percent of the aggregate population in 2007 however, if the migrant population is included, then the numbers are Third, public services have been decentralized to the probably closer to 650 million or higher which would be municipal governments along with many administrative past the halfway mark. functions (sub-national spending is 69 percent of the total, a high figure by international standards). This At the end of the 1940s, China counted 69 cities. This devolution of responsibilities is advantageous for number had climbed to 670 in 2007. The growth of cities tailoring services to local requirements, monitoring of is mainly the result of migration however, natural quality, receiving feedback and also to an extent, increase has also contributed as has in situ urbanization, mobilizing resources. But an assignment of fiscal when small towns grew so large that they were reclassi- responsibilities is not always accompanied with funding fied as cities. so that local governments in China are forced to raise resources from a variety of sources. As a consequence China now has 89 cities with a population of 1 million or the off budget revenue component accounts for 20 more. This dwarfs the numbers from other large coun- percent of GDP (derived from fees and charges of all tries such as the U.S. with 37 of this size and India with kinds). Citizens' views regarding the competence of local 32 cities. authorities rose between 2003 and 2005 to 72 percent, which would suggest that on balance, decentralization is Between now and 2025, probably another 200 to 250 working as the approval rating is appreciably higher million people will migrate to the cities (adding to the than in the United States, for example. However, the floating population of 155 million), which will account for degree of satisfaction was lower than the satisfaction a large share of all the migration in Asia. with the central authorities, which was 80 percent. In particular as can be expected in the light of financing gaps, satisfaction was even lower with the efforts made 8 ChinaUrban DevelopmentQuarterly Insights & Perspectives 7~9 . 2008 by the local authorities to punish corruption and to education services to migrants and a safety net for the provide medical services, unemployment insurance and poor and the aged, have yet to be adequately tackled. aid for those who were in hardship. Fourth, China has been quite frugal in the use of land Major characteristics of China's urbaniza- space for urban purposes - it is now about 4.4 percent of tion strategy the total land area. Despite this, urban living space per capita has grown from 8 sq m in the early 1980s to 28 sq A cornerstone of China's urbanization strategy has been m currently because of intensive and vertical the use of the household registration (hukou) system to development, of housing accommodation. Green areas control migration flow and in recent years trying to per capita also increased from 1.7 sq m in 1989 to 7.4 sq channel it to the smaller and medium sized cities. min2004. Increasingly, only the largest cities are enforcing hukou requirements strictly and there is an ongoing debate as On the negative side of the ledger, the urban-rural to its future role and the implications for migrants' income gap remains wide - variously estimated at access to urban services. between 2.2 and 3.6 - which is one of the highest in the world. Urban pollution - air and water - is serious A corollary of the strategy to limit migration was the because of the rapidity of motorization, expanding development of rural industry to provide employment. industry (especially heavy industry) and the reliance on Town and Village Enterprises provided jobs for 143 coal. Moreover, the provision of adequate health and million people in 2005, and still account for a large share of exports. Non agricultural income generate 54 per cent of total household incomes, of which some part may be comprised of remittances from migrants - variously estimated as providing more than 20 percent of house- hold income on average, and much higher levels in some counties. Very heavy investment in housing and urban infrastruc- ture - between 9- 10 percent of GDP - the privatization of much of the urban housing stock (which accelerated in 1998) and the creation of a housing mortgage market, has changed the dynamics of the housing market. By one estimate close to 82 percent of urban residents owned their homes at the end of 2005. Mortgage finance comprised 10 percent of the local currency portfolio of the banking system and real estate finance for another 5 percent. Urban Challenges Compared to most developing countries, China has coped more effectively with the demands and strains of the urbanization process. Looking ahead, a number of issues will need to be addressed. The huge anticipated transfer of population from the rural areas will require jobs in cities with adequate provision of infrastructure so as to avoid slums and unemployment. Rapid eco- Cover of China Urbanizes nomic growth is essential to achieve these objectives Photo: Shahid Yusuf simultaneously. Deepening of the capital markets especially for structured bond markets to finance 9 THE WORLD BANK ChinaUrban DevelopmentQuarterly Insights & Perspectives 7~9 . 2008 urbanization will be important. significantly affected with the North becoming more arid. While plans are in place to move water from the South to As urbanization proceeds in China while the share of the North, eventually the population must also move manufacturing activities remains large, energy usage is towards more water-abundant areas. bound to increase. Urban residents use 3.6 times more energy than their rural counterparts (motorization and Climate change will affect low lying areas which are space heating and cooling being important contributors among the most populous in China. Worldwide, 600 to the difference). This suggests that energy demand in million people live in coastal areas which are less than 10 China is far from its peak even though China's energy meters above sea levels. Central and municipal authori- intensity (consumption of energy per unit of GDP) is 7 ties in China will need to consider the implications of times that of Japan and 3.5 times that of the United climate change for coastal cities and for the infrastruc- States. In 2005, China accounted for 14.2 percent of ture in these cities. global energy consumption, second only to the United States. However, at the per capita level, China's energy With rapid productivity growth in manufacturing consumption is only one third of Japan's and one fifth of industry in China, employment in the manufacturing the United States. sector has been rising very slowly in recent years. If cities are to accommodate the continuous influx of The motor vehicle industry has been one of the priority migrants, services industries must flourish. A parallel subsector identified by the government for approach would be to accommodate industrial urban development. However, China needs to weigh the agriculture so as to generate employment and also to positive and the negative sides of further motorization address food security concerns. (especially the private use of autos). Motorization can lead to urban sprawl, higher energy consumption, and Trends in the industrial composition of urban areas, in hence a larger impact on the environment. At the same the availability of water, in the relative prices of energy time, this industry can promote development of other and agricultural products, and rising sea levels will industrial subsectors such as renewable energy related together have significant consequences for the design ones and green technologies. The lessons that China and geographical distribution and compactness of cities. can learn may come not from the United States where the All of these will pose serious challenges for urban urbanization process was proceeding when the oil was planning, land use, pricing and technology policies to cheap but from Germany, Japan, and Korea, where the name just a few, in order to create urban centers which automotive industry thrives but cities remain relatively meet the conditions likely to prevail in the latter part of compact. the 21st century. Cities are expensive to modify and to retrofit once they are built. A wiser and more cost The desirability of controlling urban sprawl also arises effective strategy would be to begin factoring in the from the need to safeguard arable land for agricultural resource scarcities and exploiting the technological production in view of the anticipated upward trend in possibilities as early as possible. raw material prices. If land use continues to grow at current rates, cities will encompass 7 percent of the land area by about 2025. (This article is a summary of China Urbanizes: Water scarcities will affect the location and growth of Consequences, Strategies, and Policies, a recent World urban areas. China is a water scarce country with only Bank publication edited by Shahid Yusuf and Tony 2,114 cubic meters available per person. This is one Saich. To purchase the full report, please visit third of the world average and one quarter of the publications.worldbank.org. A Chinese version is average for the United States. This national figure forthcoming, please contact VKalk@worldbank.org masks large regional differences. In the northern China, For more information, please contact Shahid Yusuf at the water availability is much lower - 405 cubic meters. syusuf@worldbank.org) The situation is more tolerable in the South with 2,406 cubic meters of available water per capita. However, the population is evenly distributed between the north and the south. With climate change, water availability will be 10 ChinaUrban DevelopmentQuarterly Insights & Perspectives 7~9 . 2008 China and the Urbanism of Ambition Thomas J. Campanella It is no secret that China is the most rapidly urbanizing Redevelopment in Shanghai has been equally nation in the world, with an urban population that may catastrophic, forcing to relocation of tens of thousands well reach one billion within a generation. Over the past of families. China's cities are also rapidly sprawling 25 years, surging economic growth has propelled a across the landscape, churning precious farmland into construction boom unlike anything the world has ever highway-laced landscapes of superblock housing seen, radically transforming both city and countryside in estates and gated single-family subdivisions. As early its wake. China's ambition to be a major player on the as 1995, the built-up area of Shanghai (including the city global stage is written on the skylines of every major proper and its inner suburbs) covered nine times the city. This is a nation on the rise, and it is building for the record books. China's construction industry, with a workforce equal to the population of California, has been erecting billions of square feet of housing and office space every year. In Shanghai alone more than 900 million square feet of commercial office space was added to the city between 1990 and 2004 -- the equivalent in floor area of 138 Pentagons or 334 Empire State Buildings. There was not a single skyscraper in Shang- hai in the late 1970s; today the city has more high-rise office towers than New York. By some estimates, another 430 billion square feet of new construction, including some 50,000 skyscrapers, will go up across the People's Republic by 2025 -- and that does not include the massive rebuilding necessary in Sichuan Province as a result of the May, 2008 earthquake. Building on such an epic scale has also meant unprece- dented destruction, for as the old Stalinist maxim puts it, "You can't make an omelet without breaking eggs." In its headlong rush toward an affluent, modern future, China has broken countless eggs -- obliterating a priceless built heritage, leveling more old neighborhoods and displacing more people that any nation in the peacetime history of the world. Nearly all of Beijing's centuries-old An elderly woman awaits removal from her cityscape has been bulldozed in recent years, despite demolished hutong neighborhood, Chongwen District, Beijing, 2004 legal protections and the brave resistance of residents Photo: Thomas J. Campanella and the nascent Chinese preservation movement. 11 THE WORLD BANK ChinaUrban DevelopmentQuarterly Insights & Perspectives 7~9 . 2008 cies still. Suburban housing estates are being built at a rate of 10 to 15 a day across China, which has resulted in a staggering loss of arable land in recent years -- especially in the booming coastal provinces. Between about 1980 and 2004 urban sprawl in China consumed some 44,000 square miles of agricultural land -- equal in area to most of New England. Due to such losses, the People's Republic is no longer self-sufficient in agricul- tural production; for the first time in its history, China has become a net importer of food, and is even now scouting for leaseable farmland in Africa and Latin America. Sprawl is also resulting in a population increasingly reliant on motor vehicles for getting about. During the Mao years, most housing was provided in situ by one's danwei or work-unit; few people needed to commute to work, and streets and roads were typically empty. But with the economic reforms of the 1980s the old live-work model was largely abandoned; workers were encouraged to find their own housing, and the economics of the housing market often meant settling for accommodations well out on the urban fringe (others, displaced by redevelopment of old neighborhoods, were more or less Luxury housing on the same spot as above forced out). The new separation of workplace and image two years later residence has meant an exponential increase in traffic, Photo: Thomas J. Campanella straining public transit systems and encouraging those who can afford it to buy a car. This helps explain why China has become the fastest growing automobile market land area it did just a decade earlier -- jumping from 90 to in the world, with a domestic motor vehicle market that 790 square miles. There is a Chinese expression for this - has surpassed Japan's and is second in size only to that - tan da bing -- which literally means "to bake a big of the United States. With all these cars on the subur- pancake." Pancaking in the Pearl River Delta has been ban fringe have also come a range of artifacts -- shop- even more extensive, and LANDSAT images of ping malls, big-box retail stores, drive-thru fast-food Chongqing taken over the last two decades reveal a restaurants, even drive-in cinemas -- long associated process of urban expansion more reminiscent of a with the suburban, motorist landscape of the United supernova than anything from the kitchen. States. In terms of form and settlement density, Chinese sub- Clearly, the unprecedented speed and scale of urbaniza- urbs are very different from those in the United States. tion in China challenges many of our ideals and expecta- While single-family "villa" subdivisions much like the tions about cities and what makes them work. American typical American gated community have become popular urbanists, especially, often find that the benchmarks in recent years among the most affluent, more common used to measure and make sense of cities suddenly seem are mid- to high-rise superblock suburban housing obsolete. The story of the West End in Boston is a case estates, the most exclusive of which are gated and offer in point. An aging and congested but vibrant urban a great range of lifestyle services and amenities. Because neighborhood, the West End was condemned a slum and these suburban estates are so dense, they are much bulldozed in the late 1950s as a model urban renewal more land efficient than the typical large-lot American project. The community's destruction became the suburban development. But China's relatively small land subject of several landmark studies, and is still regarded area and immense population demands greater efficien- the sine qua non example of the kind of authoritarian 12 ChinaUrban DevelopmentQuarterly Insights & Perspectives 7~9 . 2008 "big planning" that Jane Jacobs would soon rail against cent of America in its youth. Henry James' descriptions in Death and Life of Great American Cities. There is not of lower Manhattan in 1904 -- of the "multitudinous sky- an urban planning student in America who hasn't heard scrapers standing up to the view, from the water, like of the West End and its demise. The West End was one extravagant pins in a cushion already overplanted" -- of a hundreds of urban renewal projects that, by 1970, could well describe Shanghai's Pudong district today. had displaced an estimated one million people in cities Americans gazed in wonder once at miniature metropoles across the United States. A staggering legacy, but one like Norman Bel Geddes' "Futurama" exhibit at the 1939 that pales quickly in comparison to urban-redevelop- New York World's Fair, just as Chinese today pore over ment losses in China. In Shanghai in the 1990s alone, spectacular models of the Shanghai- or Beijing-to-be. more families were displaced by urban redevelopment We wrote poems once to our bridges and roads. But projects than by 30 years of urban renewal in the entire today we are older and wiser, more responsible, more United States. And similar displacements have occurred aware of the problems of planning for cars rather than in Beijing, Guangzhou, Nanjing and Tianjin. How useful, human beings. A new emphasis on sustainability impels in other words, is the West End as a tool in assessing us to rethink the way we build. In short, our values have the impacts of urban renewal in China? changed. But with wisdom has also come timidity. We are a suburban nation in tweedy middle age, cautious The scale of building in China also humbles our peren- and conservative, no longer smitten with audacity. Our nial American preoccupation with bigness. Americans architecture is retrospective, measured and sane; our have long taken it for granted that the United States new towns are modeled on the old. We envy China would always have the largest, fastest, greatest, tallest, because we see in its spectacular rise traces of what we broadest and most expensive of all things. And indeed, once were -- brash, reckless, hungry to make a new America was long the land of bigness and ambition. We world. were a nation bred on Daniel Burnham's mythic exhorta- tion to "make no little plans." We invented the sky- scraper and built the tallest buildings in the world; we erected the biggest dams and laid out the most extensive (Thomas J. Campanella is associate professor of urban highway system in the world. We even put a man on the design and planning at the University of North Caro- Moon. But China is fast removing us from this mighty lina at Chapel Hill and a visiting professor at the perch. China is now home to some of the world's tallest Harvard University Graduate School of Design. He has skyscrapers and biggest shopping malls; the longest also taught at MIT and Nanjing University in China, bridges and largest airport; the most expansive theme and was a Fulbright fellow at the Chinese University of parks and gated communities and even the world's Hong Kong. His books include The Concrete Dragon: largest skateboard park. Three Gorges Dam is 16 times China's Urban Revolution and What it Means for the the volume of beloved Hoover Dam. And by 2020 World (2008), Cities From the Sky (2001) and Republic China's national network of expressways will overtake of Shade (2003), winner of the Spiro Kostof Award. To the American interstate system to become the most watch a video of the author's speech on this topic, extensive human construction on earth. Even Robert please visit the Quarterly's website Moses, long the arch-demon of American urban www.ChinaUrbanQuarterly.org.cn For more ambition, would scarcely budge the needle of a Chinese information, please contact Thomas J. Campanella at urban Richter scale. Moses, for all his ruthlessness, tomcamp@unc.edu) constructed 415 miles of highway in the metropolitan New York region in his entire master-builder career. Shanghai built well over three times that in just the 1990s. There is, nonetheless, a bewitching consonance be- tween the American urban experience and the transfigu- ration of China's cities today. China's drive, energy and ambition -- its hunger to be powerful and prosperous, a player on the global stage -- is more than a little reminis- 13 THE WORLD BANK ChinaUrban DevelopmentQuarterly Insights & Perspectives 7~9 . 2008 Preparing for China's Urban Billion McKinsey Global Institute China's burgeoning economic success and the rapidly capita GDP by 2020. For companies -- in China and rising standard of living of its people have resulted in a around the world -- the scale of China's urbanization historically unprecedented surge of urbanization that is promises substantial new markets. set to continue. If current trends hold, nearly one billion people will live in urban centers by 2025. China will have At the same time the expansion of China's cities will 221 cities with more than one million inhabitants -- represent a huge challenge for local and national leaders. compared with 35 in Europe today -- of which 23 cities Of the slightly over 350 million people that China will will have more than five million people. The urban add to its urban population by 2025, more than 240 economy will generate over 90 percent of China's GDP million will be migrants. Urbanization along current by2025. trends will imply major pressure points for many cities including the challenges of securing sufficient public funding for the provision of social services, and dealing with demand and supply pressures on land, energy, water, and the environment. All of these pressures will intensify in time, as China's leaders acknowledge. Although China will likely achieve its GDP growth target in the timeframe it has set for itself, a focus solely on GDP growth will not achieve the harmonious develop- ment that the Chinese leadership desires. As China seeks to mitigate these pressures, there are in fact several paths open to China's national government but most particularly to China's city governments, which can, to a great extent, influence how urbanization plays out. In a bid to understand these paths, the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), the economics research arm of McKinsey & Company, conducted a study of China's urbanization to a unique level of detail. We employed rigorous macro- and microeconomic approaches through a granular city-level econometric model. From this model, As the nation's urban economy grows, China seems we derived data-driven projections of urbanization's destined to continue to enjoy an impressive pace of future challenges. We visited and researched 14 Chinese increasing national prosperity. In all likelihood the cities and interviewed hundreds of officials, business nation's continuing urbanization will ensure that China leaders, city managers, and academics about the policy will fulfill the ambitious economic growth target set out levers that were used to influence the scale and shape of at the 17th Party Congress in 2007 of quadrupling per development of their cities. We developed and examined 14 ChinaUrban DevelopmentQuarterly Insights & Perspectives 7~9 . 2008 four urbanization scenarios, each plausible outcomes of acquisition, supporting the economic development of urbanization over the next 20 years. larger cities, and adjusting the incentives of China's city officials. By 2025, these policies could boost the growth At the national level, broadly speaking there are four of 15 supercities with average populations of 25 million approaches to urbanization that China might choose to people, or spur the further development of 11 urban pursue. Two of these foresee patterns of concentrated "networks" of cities, linked by strong economic ties, growth. Under a "supercities" scenario, a small number with combined populations of 60-plus million on of very large cities -- with populations of 20 million or average. more -- could emerge. Under a "hub and spoke" scenario, clusters of medium-sized and small cities could We also find that encouraging "urban productivity" develop around larger ones. Two other quite different initiatives at the city level -- for example, the implementa- approaches would involve patterns of dispersed growth. tion of transit-oriented development or the creation of Under a "distributed growth" scenario, we could see a incentives for energy-efficient industrial equipment -- large number of cities with populations of 1.5 million to 5 could generate substantial positive outcomes in all million spread throughout China. Under a "townization" scenarios. Through the adoption and effective imple- scenario, many smaller cities -- with populations of 500, mentation of such policies, China could reduce its 000 to 1.5 million -- could be the model. Other nations annual public spending in 2025 by more than 1.5 trillion around the world have applied all these options. All four renminbi (equivalent to 2.5 percent of 2025 GDP), going are open to China; all four are subject to current public some way toward reducing its funding needs and and political debate. releasing capital for other uses. Such initiatives could also generate additional savings for the private sector, in Although each scenario presents a largely distinct set of particular its resource bill. Potential savings here will opportunities and challenges, our analysis finds that a total up to an amount equivalent to an additional 1.7 more concentrated pattern of urbanization is most likely percent of China's 2025 GDP. to mitigate pressures and increase the overall producti- vity of the urban system. Concentrated urban growth In all scenarios, businesses have not only an opportu- scenarios could increase per capita GDP by up to 20 nity to leverage China's impending urban billion as a percent over dispersed urban growth scenarios. As a new consumer market, but also to become major inves- percentage of GDP, public spending will also be lower tors -- in road and rail, public-transit systems, buildings, (16 percent of GDP in concentrated compared with 17 the energy supply infrastructure, and energy-efficient percent in dispersed urban growth scenarios). For China technologies -- as China manages its urbanization to move in this direction, policy shifts at the national phenomenon. These opportunities will require a new level would be required including, for example, continu- generation of public-private partnerships to enable ing to enforce stricter regulations against city land additional capital and knowledge infusion from the private sector, at the same time as guaranteeing greater efficiency and productivity from major public projects. (This article is a summary of Preparing for China's Urban Billion by McKinsey Global Institute. The full report and additional perspectives will be published in the coming months. For more information on the institute and to download the report, watch a video, and test your knowledge on China's urbanization through an interactive quiz and graphic, please visit MGI's website www.mckinsey.com/mgi ) 15 THE WORLD BANK ChinaUrban DevelopmentQuarterly Insights & Perspectives 7~9 . 2008 Liveable Cities: The Benefits of Urban Environmental Planning Cities Alliance The report, Liveable Cities: The Benefits of Urban prove a strong marketing tool for attracting investors Environmental Planning, published by the Cities and contribute to public health and poverty eradication." Alliance, United Nations Environment Programme said UN Under-Secretary-General and UNEP Executive (UNEP), and ICLEI - Local Governments for Director, Achim Steiner at the launch of the report at the Sustainability, showcases 12 examples of cities around UN Climate Conference in Bali, Indonesia. "A modern the world. It explores various options for sustainable city can only be truly successful if it can convincingly urban development ranging from practical tools and demonstrate its green credentials by recognizing its comprehensive policies to innovative market natural assets, creating efficient water, energy and mechanisms. transport infrastructure, and protecting its citizens in the face of present and future impacts of climate change," he "The report contains many `take home' messages - added. environmental management can boost city budgets, For example, the city of Yangzhou in China, faced with many environmental problems, including damage to wetlands, water shortages and deteriorating water quality, took a deliberate decision in 1999 to create an eco-city. For its efforts, Yangzhou received the UN- HABITAT Scroll of Honour in 2006 for its work in conserving the old city and improving the residential environment. Although eco-city plans are not statutory in China, the Mayor of Yangzhou required all other plans prepared by the municipal administration, including the statutory spatial plan to conform to the eco-city plan (ECP). By doing so, the ECP in Yangzhou allows staff to pursue goals of economic advancement through industrial development and tourism while at the same time ensur- ing social stability and improvement in the quality of life of residents and environmental conservation. Other cities featured in the report include the Municipa- lity of Bohol in the Philippines, which has been using the ecoBUDGET tool, an environmental management system that incorporates natural resources and environ- Cover of Liveable Cities Photo: Cities Alliance mental goods into budgeting cycles, to achieve the twin 16 ChinaUrban DevelopmentQuarterly Insights & Perspectives 7~9 . 2008 economic development and poverty alleviation. Today, there is almost universal recognition in governments at all levels that it is essential to incorporate environmental considerations into urban planning and management. This provides significant benefits in every area of urban life, cutting across issues such as health, poverty, security and economic development. Section Two outlines the basic framework to urban environmental planning. It defines entry levels, barriers to integration and provides an overview of instruments for environmental integration. It then documents some of the policy, process, planning and management instruments that can be deployed in the process of A community action planning workshop in integrating the environment into urban planning. Yangzhou, China Photo: Cities Alliance Section Three examines a number of approaches to the application of some of these instruments: Integrated Development Planning (IDP); City Development Strate- objectives of environmental sustainability and poverty gies (CDS); Eco City Planning; ecoBUDGET, a copy- alleviation. righted management tool developed by ICLEI; and a Strategic Environmental Assessment. The City of Bayamo in Cuba, faced with a situation where motorized transport was available to just 15 Section Four concludes the discussions and proffers percent of local commuters, has in 2004 reverted to some recommendations for urban environmental plan- horse-drawn carriages. Horse-drawn services now take ning targeting city leaders, urban decision-makers and care of around 40 percent of local transport needs, their partners. This is followed by Annexes of twelve demonstrating that motorised transport is not the only case studies illustrating different city approaches to solution to a public transport problem. urban environmental planning, Instrument Toolkit examples, a bibliography and a list of useful websites. The report makes a strong case for the environment as the key asset for cities. A 2006 survey of professionals working in Hong Kong revealed that almost four out of five professionals were thinking of leaving or knew (To download this publication, please visit the website others who have already left because of the quality of of Cities Alliance http://www.citiesalliance.org For the natural environment, while 94 percent ranked it as more information, please contact the Cities Alliance at the top factor in selecting a place to live. info@citiesalliance.org) "Cities today have to be competitive. They operate in a global marketplace, competing with other cities and urban settlements around the world for investment. A city cannot compete, however, if it cannot offer inves- tors security, infrastructure and efficiency. Hardly any city can offer these elements without incorporating environmental issues into its planning and management strategies," said Cities Alliance Manager, William Cobbett. The report is divided into four main sections. Section One, which sets out the general context for the report argues that a well-managed urban environment is key to 17 THE WORLD BANK ChinaUrban DevelopmentQuarterly Events Brief 7~9 . 2008 Workshop on Legislative Reform of China's Transport Sector The transport infrastructure development in China is the adviser to the World Bank, Chinese professors, largest program that has occurred anywhere in the world researchers, transport exports, and government officials since the nineteenth century. The administration of the came together with international transport experts to transport sector in China has in the past been very share experiences. The result was a fusion of both fragmented. Until recently, it involved at least four theoretical and practical knowledge, and Chinese and central ministries, each managing infrastructure develop- international know-how. ment programs of awesome scale and ambition. Moreover, much of the infrastructure delivery and Workshop task team leader John Scales summed up the regulatory functions are held at provincial and city challenge when he said, "To me, integrated transport government levels. The most challenging issue is how to means four main things. First, getting each mode of coordinate among different modes of transport and transport doing what it does best, taking account of its integrate them into a sustainable and efficient network. economic and environmental features. Second, making sure that the connections and interchanges between the modes are in place and working well. Third, getting the right balance between coordination and competition. And fourth, deciding what can be left to the market and what requires government intervention and regulation." Key take-away messages included: the importance of making sure the objectives of any new legislation are clearly defined; consulting with stakeholders to get buy-in; ensuring supportive institutional behaviour through Since 1990, China has built more than 44,000 km of tolled expressway Source: An Overview of China's Transport Sector 2007, World Bank To try to address this challenge, the World Bank and China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) co-hosted a workshop on legislative reform of China's transport sector in Beijing in April 2008, and scrutinized the possible structure of a proposed new Integrated Transport Promotion Law. China has built 120 new berths in seaports in 2006 Under the joint-chair of Wang Qingyun, director-general alone Source: An Overview of China's Transport Sector 2007, of Transport at China's National Development and World Bank Reform Commission, and Paul Amos, former transport 18 ChinaUrban DevelopmentQuarterly Events Brief 7~9 . 2008 positive incentives for integrated solutions; and institute is charged with bringing the law to a stage making sure legislation contains the basis for effective where it can be properly evaluated by China's legislative funding of authorized programs. review process. The drafting team will now take the thoughts of the workshop into their next phase of Liu Banglian and his colleagues from the Institute of drafting, while Wang Qingyun said he hoped that World Transport Economics at the University of Nankai (in Bank would be available to continue supporting this Tianjin) helped organize and deliver the program. The most important initiative. Experience Sharing Program on Development Between China and Africa Sino-African trade has exploded from $2 billion in 1999 shape their own strategies, keeping in mind that the to $55.5 billion in 2006 and $73 billion in 2007, growing difference in contexts will necessarily call for differenti- faster than Chinese trade with the rest of the world, and ated solutions. The Bank must increasingly support making a significant contribution to China's success. Building on the expanding relationship, the World Bank Institute and the Bank's Africa and East Asia and Pacific Regions supported the Chinese Government in organiz- ing a unique South-South `experience sharing' program last month. The importance attached by the Chinese government to the program was reflected by the pres- ence of two vice-ministers and the head of the state council's poverty reduction office at the opening session. The first three days were devoted to a seminar in Beijing where Chinese and African participants discussed economic growth, foreign direct investment, trade, infrastructure, and agriculture. China's economic growth over the past three decades has enabled over 400 million Opening Session of the program people to climb out of extreme poverty -- a dramatic Photo: World Bank Institute success story built around China's own development strategy. such south-south experience sharing programs." "Our Chinese Government partners are very happy "China's remarkable success in reducing poverty while about the program and have expressed their appreciation sustaining growth is unparalleled in the world," said the to the Bank for its role in making it a success," said Bank'sAfrica Vice President, Obiageli Ezekwesili. David Dollar, the Bank's country director for China and "Through this exchange, policy makers will learn from Mongolia, "They have encouraged the Bank to organize relevant aspects of the Chinese experience as they these types of activities on a regular basis. For my own part, I see these types of knowledge exchange as an 19 THE WORLD BANK ChinaUrban DevelopmentQuarterly Issue 5 7~9 . 2008 important complement to other initiatives the Bank is the field visits focused on poverty reduction and rural undertaking to support China's engagement in Africa, development, while in the coastal provinces of including joint project financing and research." Guangdong and Zhejiang, the visitors explored invest- Governor Li Ruogu of China's EX-IM Bank, Augustin ments in infrastructure, township and village enterprises, Fosu of the UN's World Institute for Development foreign investment promotion, and establishing special Economics Research, Justin Lin, the World Bank's chief economic zones, among others. economist, Jim Adams, East Asia vice president also spoke. Over eight days, 32 decision-makers from 18 East- and Southern- African countries compared their own ap- Participants then split up into two groups for field visits proaches to overcoming challenges to growth and to the provinces of Guangdong, Guangxi, Jiangxi, and human development with what they saw in China. The Zhejiang. In the inland provinces of Guangxi and Jiangxi, program -- designed by China's Ministry of Finance with suggestions from Bank staff -- focused on areas where China's experience was most relevant for Africa. Qimiao Fan, task team leader for the China-Africa Experience-Sharing initiative, quoted some key takeaways by the participants: Development with significant impact on poverty reduction can be achieved in one's lifetime There is a way out of poverty if we harness the necessary will power and ambition Political commitment at the highest level is an impor- tant ingredient to translate ideas into reality Each country must lead its own development pro- grams Infrastructure development, especially road construction, is critical for growth and poverty allevia- tion The rural poor must have access to land and tenure Participants visit Hangzhou Economic and Technologi- cal Development Area (HEDA) in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province Photo: World Bank Institute Disclaimer The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author(s), and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. China Urban Development Quarterly is a joint production of World Bank East Asia and Pacific Region Urban Develop- ment Unit and Urban and Local Government Program of World Bank Institute. The Quarterly is an environment-friendly publication, printed in soy ink and on recycled paper. Please visit the Quarterly's website www.ChinaUrbanQuarterly. org.cn, and send your feedback to UrbanQuarterly@worldbank.org. 20