THE 103681 WorldBank IN INDIA VOL 14 / NO 4 JANUARY 2016 INSIDE The water and energy debate 1-5 Development Dialogue: The water and energy Bhutan has much to teach South Asia 6-7 debate: Can solar power provide solutions? ICR Update: Rajasthan Water Sector Restructuring Project 8-10 Recent Project Approvals and Signings 11-12 Farmers turn to the rain god, Indra, when all else fails. Perhaps now New Additions to the Public they can give the sun god, Surya, a shot as well? Information Center 13-23 Contact Information 24 About the photograph: I f God appeared in the dream of a paddy farmer in India’s West Bengal and said, “You have made me happy with your hard work. Make three wishes and they will be granted,” the farmer will invariably say, “I want rain, rain and A village in Rajasthan electrified by women barefoot rain.” solar engineers Photograph by Knut-Erik Helle That thought kept playing over in my mind after meeting with farmers in the Creative Commons Licence paddy fields of the Siliguri and Jalpaiguri districts of West Bengal. Located in India’s northeast, the region is Let’s see how this impacts the energy and famous for its scenic beauty, tea plantations water sectors – both sectors that are critical and paddy fields. While the fertile soil makes for India’s growth and development. In many it ideal for growing a variety of crops, the area states, power for agricultural purposes is is almost entirely dependent on rainfall for highly subsidized. This, combined with an irrigation, like many other parts of the country. unreliable supply of electricity, often leads farmers to leave their pumps on all the time. To reduce their dependence on the As a result, both electricity and water are monsoons, the region’s farmers have sought wasted, with too much energy being used to pump up groundwater for irrigation – much to extract too much groundwater, often way the same as farmers in the rest of the country. more than needed. The result is that today, India has become the world’s largest user of groundwater irrigation, The problem is particularly acute in Punjab despite inheriting the world’s largest canal and Haryana, where farmers are given irrigation network in 1947. electricity for agriculture-related tasks at no cost, usually at night. The result is that Groundwater is pumped up using electric or farmers often leave their pumps running diesel-powered pump sets. Diesel-powered throughout the night, leading to a rapidly sets are more prevalent in the eastern part of depleting water table and over-irrigated the country, partly because electrification in farms, not to mention all the wasted this region is much poorer. Altogether, some electricity. Not only that, farmers frequently 9 million diesel-powered pump sets have suffer snake bites when they go out to been deployed across India for irrigation. manage the flow of water into their fields at night time, making this a particularly trying In addition, 12 million electricity connections exercise for them. have been taken for agricultural purposes. It may come as a surprise, but agriculture alone Clearly, the current scenario is not uses up to 20 percent of all the electricity sustainable. For, if all India’s arable land consumed in India, with most of this being were to be irrigated in this water and used for irrigation. energy-intensive manner – more than half of the cultivated land is yet to be irrigated In some states this share is even higher, with – the country’s water and energy needs for agriculture accounting for as much as 30-50 agriculture alone will soar dramatically. percent of all the electricity consumed in the state. Clearly, pumping up groundwater for But there could be an alternative. Solar irrigation is a highly energy-intensive exercise. energy, long considered ideal for home A paddy farmer with Some facts about Solar his umbrella Global prices of solar photo voltaic (PV) on a rainy cells have fallen from $77/watt in 1977 to day in $0.36/watt in 2015 and will keep falling in West Bengal the times to come. Germany has more than half of the world’s solar installation. More than 50 percent of its electricity comes from solar. Germany, China and USA are the top three countries in solar capacity; India is at the 10th position. India has installed almost 5 GW of grid connected solar power. PRA prices have fallen from Rs 15 to Rs 5 per unit in the last five years. India’s target is to install 100,000 solar pumps each year. 12 2 The World Bank in India • January 2016 regions like the Ganga-Brahmaputra Basin in eastern India, they could be quite successful. Moreover, if farmers could sell their surplus solar electricity to the grid at good rates, they would think twice before pumping up groundwater unnecessarily. The state of Karnataka is banking on just this. Under its “Surya Raitha” scheme, the state electric utility announced a tariff of Rs 9.56 for every unit of solar power sent to the grid. Currently, 300 farmers are piloting this approach and have turned in their traditional diesel-run Photo: Mathieu Schoutteten / Creative Commons pumps voluntarily. The scheme is being With prices lighting uses, has suddenly become attractive monitored to see how it works. of solar for pumping up irrigation water. India already modules has some 25,000 solar pumps in the fields, Another option is being tried out in West having and farmers everywhere seem happy with Bengal. Here, a World Bank irrigation project fallen by 70 is exploring a service contract model where their performance and potential. Moreover, percent in with prices of solar modules having fallen by a solar pump operator provides a farmer the last four years, these 70 percent in the last four years, these pumps with a fixed amount of water for a certain pumps are are fast becoming a viable financial solution fee. If proper limits are set and enforced, fast becoming for irrigation. this model can put a price on water and help a viable in controlling the amount of water that is financial Let’s address some common concerns pumped up for irrigation. Compliance can be solution for regarding the use of solar power for irrigation: monitored through inexpensive GPRS and irrigation remote sensing technologies. In the non- 1. Won’t solar pumps deplete irrigation season, the un-utilized power from India’s groundwater even solar pumps can be used by small agro-mills further? for drying crops. It is sometimes argued that solar pumps, 2. Isn’t it prohibitive to install which use free solar resources, will make and operate a solar pump? farmers even more careless about wasting groundwater, leading to excessive extraction. The upfront cost of a solar pump – say 2 This may indeed be true in areas that are not HP which is capable of irrigating 5 acres of geographically suited for their use, such as land – is about 10 times more than that of a in western and southern India where ground conventional diesel-powered pump ($5,000 water tables are already low; here, solar vs $500). This is despite the significant pumps will have to be used very carefully. reduction in the price of solar modules from On the other hand, in high ground water table $3 per watt in 2009, to less than $1 in 2015. The World Bank in India • January 2016 12 3 Larger solar Undoubtedly, small and marginal farmers may pumps may not have the ready cash to buy these solar not be as pumps or be able to borrow money from a beneficial commercial bank to do so, since banks still in areas don’t consider solar pumps as ‘bankable where land holdings are technology’. small, unless But think about the long-term returns. It the water costs virtually nothing to run a solar pump pumped up can be shared which can last for at least 25 years with little among a overhead or management costs. The cost of group of producing power from a solar pump works farmers out to around $0.15 unit per unit – compared to $0.30 for a diesel- powered one. Thus, the prevent solar pumps from working for 60-70 farmer can recover his initial investment in days a year. But since it generally rains a lot 6-9 years. This clearly makes the solar pump at this time, irrigation may not be necessary. the more viable option in the long run. And Nonetheless, there will still be a few days once commercial and public banks in India when you might not see the sun. Given start lending to install them, it could make a these factors, solar pumps can prove to be significant difference in the lives of farmers, a reliable source of power 90 percent of the as well as impact the critical power and water time. The remaining period can be taken care situations in the country. of by adding a facility to store energy or water. 3. Is solar energy reliable in all Moreover, larger solar pumps may not be as seasons? beneficial in areas where land holdings are small, unless the water pumped up can be In many parts of India, cloudy weather shared among a group of farmers. conditions, particularly during the monsoons, 4. Are solar pumps environment friendly? Undoubtedly, electric and diesel powered pumps consume a great deal of energy. Diesel powered pumps account for 13 percent of India’s total diesel consumption, and 19 percent of the coal used to generate electricity is consumed for this purpose. If half of India’s diesel pumps were replaced with solar photo-voltaic pump sets, the country’s diesel consumption could be reduced by about 7.5 percent. And if every 12 4 The World Bank in India • January 2016 Electric and mechanism that uses electricity to pump up diesel powered groundwater water were refitted with a solar pumps pump, an electricity distribution company’s account losses could be reduced by an average of Rs for nearly 30,000-Rs 35,000 per pump each year. six percent of India’s Electric and diesel powered pumps also have total carbon high carbon emissions. They emit 16-25 emissons. million mt of carbon per year, accounting If these were to be replaced for nearly six percent of India’s total carbon with solar emissions. If these pumps were to be power pumps, replaced with solar pumps, this aspect of the this aspect carbon footprint would be completely wiped of the carbon out, and India’s “dirty” groundwater economy of over-pumping of groundwater and the footprint be transformed into a clean one. resultant depletion of aquifers is not as acute. would be In such a scenario, a capital cost subsidy can completely By contrast, solar pumps are ‘clean’ and use be effectively deployed to increase the use of wiped out a renewable source of energy. Farmers can solar pumps. pump up groundwater for six to 10 hours daily – and even more during the winter and In the western region, however, where summer months when irrigation is needed groundwater tables are already low, it may the most – using free, uninterrupted energy be more appropriate to adopt power supply during the day time. purchase policies where farmers can sell the extra solar power they generate to 5. What policy would be the best distribution companies at a preferential price, for India? rather than using it for extracting ground water indiscriminately. The ground water situation across India is very diverse. In some areas, ground water All said and done, we need to explore these is over-exploited, whereas in others, further options further and fully understand the development is possible. There are also impact of solar pumps on groundwater levels differences between areas that have shallow in India. Once this is fully understood and aquifers and deep systems, and between both the infrastructure and governance for alluvial soil and hard rock regions. The East- selling electricity back into the grid are in (Change background colour as needed) North and West-South contexts are also place, solar powered pumps may well prove different. to be the answer to a farmer’s prayers, while also easing the critical energy and water In eastern India, the use of solar pumps is situations in India. likely be a very attractive option. In West Bengal, for instance, where the ground water Contributed by Amit Jain, Energy Specialist, table is high and floods are frequent, the risk World Bank, India The World Bank in India • January 2016 12 5 Development Dialogue Bhutan’s commitment to an ambitious target offers an example for South Asia South Asia is among the regions of the world that is likely to be most affected by climate change. We are already experiencing this. There is increasing variability of the monsoon rainfall and an increase in the number of droughts. An approach that includes a commitment to ambitious goals, mainstreaming climate change measures, and cooperating with neighbors, could lead to real progress, said Annette Dixon, World Bank’s Vice-President for the South Asia Region T he mountain kingdom of Bhutan may not seem an obvious place to look for lessons on addressing climate change. But threshold would have serious consequences. South Asia is among the regions of the world that is likely to be most affected by climate on a recent visit here, I was impressed with change. We are already experiencing this. how much this small country has achieved There is increasing variability of the monsoon and also with its ambition. Bhutan has much rainfall, more heavy rainfalls such as those to teach South Asia and the wider world. that caused the recent flooding in India, and These lessons are especially relevant as an increase in the number of droughts. the world negotiates in Paris a new pact on A World Bank report in 2013 predicted that climate change at the International Climate even if the warming climate was kept at 2 Change Summit, known as COP21, which we degrees this could threaten the lives of the all hope will move the global economy to a millions of people in South Asia. The region’s low-carbon and more resilient path. dense urban populations face extreme heat, The talks aim to agree on a way to keep flooding, and disease and millions of its global warming to a maximum of 2 degrees people could be trapped in poverty. Droughts celsius from pre-industrial era levels. There is could especially affect north-western India, widespread agreement that going above this Pakistan and Afghanistan. 6 The World Bank in India • January 2016 These are big problems. They may look much weather monitoring, water-related services, bigger than anything Bhutan, a very small agriculture, urban transport, information country in a populous region, can teach and communications technology (ICT), South Asia and the world. But I see three hydropower, and forest management. In ICT, lessons. First, a commitment to ambitious for example, Bhutan is positioning itself as goals will be critical to save the world from the country of green, reliable energy to attract climate disaster. To stop the world from private green investment and jobs. warming too much, climate experts estimate Third, there are big potential wins in the fight that global greenhouse gas emissions must against climate change from cooperating be cut by up to 70 percent by 2050. Carbon with neighbors. This could even save lives. neutrality (zero emissions) must be achieved With the earth warming, the number of within this century. natural disasters are increasing. In the past Bhutan declared in 2009 that it would remain two decades, over 50 percent of South carbon-neutral and has made the most Asians (more than 800 million people) ambitious pledges on cutting emissions at have been affected by at least one natural COP21, according to Britain’s Energy and disaster. South Asian countries can gain from Climate Intelligence Unit think tank. It is cooperating on disasters that stem from carbon-neutral already because of its vast shared climate change-related challenges. forests absorbing carbon emissions. But When I was in Bhutan, I announced a new staying neutral as emissions from industry weather and disaster improvement project and transport rapidly rise will not be easy. It to expand weather forecasting and natural will require aggressively maintaining its tree disaster early warning in Bhutan and the cover and finding ways to grow economically South Asia region. I also announced a pilot in a carbon-neutral or reduced way. To program for climate resilience that has the achieve this, the Royal Government of Bhutan potential for considerable expansion. has embedded its commitment to maintain its forest cover at more than 60 percent. Climate change is the defining challenge of our era. But an approach that includes Second, mainstreaming comprehensive (Change background colour as needed) a commitment to ambitious goals, climate change measures across the mainstreaming climate change measures, economy is the way to go. The alternative of and cooperating with neighbors, could lead a case-by-case approach will result in gains to real progress. in one area that are negated by setbacks in others. Bhutan has taken the approach of This article was originally published in the mainstreaming climate change and resilience Financial Express on 10 December 2015 in policies on disaster risk management and The World Bank in India • January 2016 7 ICR Update T his is a short summary of the Implementation Completion Report (ICR) of a recently- closed World Bank project. The full text of the ICR is available on the Bank’s website. To access this document, go to www.worldbank.org/reference/ and then opt for the Documents & Reports section. Rajasthan Water Sector Restructuring Project Context Rajasthan Water Sector Restructuring Water is a scarce resource in the desert state Project of Rajasthan where the rural sector accounts for 77 per cent of the population, the majority Approval Date: 19 February, 2002 of whom are poor. The government was Closing Date: 31 March, 2013 faced with the challenge of better managing its increasingly scarce water resources for Total Project Cost US$ 195 million agriculture which accounted for 33 percent of the state’s GDP and 70 percent of Bank Financing: US$ 124 million employment. Implementing Water Resources Project Development Objectives Agency: Department, Government of The objective was to (a) strengthen Rajasthan the capacity for strategic planning and Outcome: Moderately Satisfactory sustainable development and management of surface and groundwater resources in Risk to Development Moderate Rajasthan; and (b) to increase agricultural Outcome: productivity through improved surface irrigation systems and strengthened Overall Bank Moderately Satisfactory Performance: agricultural support services, involving greater participation of users and the private Overall Borrower Moderately Satisfactory sector in service delivery in Rajasthan. Performance: 12 8 The World Bank in India • January 2016 against the target of 100,000 hectares. This resulted in increasing yield of wheat, mustard and cotton by almost three times. The Project also successfully created 525 well-functioning Water User Associations (WUAs) against the target of 546 WUAs. These WUAs managed the irrigation water in their area of operation and collected water charges. Lessons Learnt ● Managing complexity in complex sectors: A Bank project designed to address the multiple development objectives and technical and policy The key deliverables included preparation reform issues, is unlikely to achieve its of river basin plans, rehabilitation of canal objectives in a project cycle of 5 to 6 irrigation systems, increasing irrigated years. This most often requires repeated area and establishing well-functioning extensions, resulting in inefficient use of and financially sustainable water user Bank’s resources and delayed benefits. associations (WUAs). It is important to separate the reform vision (long-term) from the actions to be Project Beneficiaries achieved in a single project cycle (short- The Project was expected to benefit about term). This is all the more necessary in 258,000 farm families and create about projects in low income states, where the 37,000 jobs per year. absorptive and management capacity of our clients may need to be increased Achievements before smooth implementation is possible. Over all, the Project benefited about 222,300 farm families of which 55 per cent were small ● User fees for water are politically charged and marginal farm holders. By end of the and not easily reformed: The sustainability Project, about 38,235 families benefited from of rehabilitated irrigation schemes hinge the poverty alleviation impacts due to project- on the appropriate operation and timely led incremental financial benefits and about maintenance of those schemes. This 59,615 families benefitted from the improved requires a steady flow of funding through irrigated agriculture-led poverty alleviation user fees, subsidies, or a combination impact. River basin plans were prepared for of both. One major lesson from this all 15 river basins in the state against the operation is that mandating the increase target of eight. The canal irrigation system of fees does not necessarily results in was rehabilitated in 652,568 ha area, against increased fees. Moreover, increased fees the target of 670,000ha. The gross irrigated do not necessarily translate into increased area increased by about 146,386 hectares revenue, if the incentives to pay are not in place and collection rates are not sufficient. A recent review of the World Bank’s Water Strategy identified full cost recovery of water services delivery as economically desirable but rarely achieved in practice. It noted that underpricing of water supply services is widespread, even in upper- middle-income and high-income countries. ● Invest appropriately to increase client capacity: Low institutional capacity of government departments and implementing agencies, which is all the more pronounced in low-income states, will negatively impact project The World Bank in India • January 2016 12 9 ● Developing WUAs is a long-term process: Institutional capacity building of WUAs takes substantial long term efforts and support, much beyond the training and capacity building that can be provided within a single project period. It is important, therefore, that the client have an in-house program to provide technical support, training, and capacity building to WUAs. In addition, WUAs should be legally empowered to collect and retain a portion of water charges, and raise additional funds, including from their own members, to carry out their mandated functions. ● Sustainable groundwater management is best done at the aquifer level through the legally empowered community organizations: To achieve sustainable management of groundwater, it is essential implementation and outcomes. In addition to have commitment of the community. to providing needs-based training to staff Information, education and communication and officers of government departments are essential for motivating communities and implementing agencies, more to the need for restraint and cooperation consistent technical assistance may be in the use of groundwater. This takes a (Change background colour as needed) needed to generate the behavior change lot of time but can be made to work with and skills upgrading required to manage enabling legislation together with the more technically sophisticated water active and continued technical support to management systems. the community organizations. 12 10 The World Bank in India • January 2016 Recent Project Approvals Swachh Bharat Mission (SBM) Support Operation Project T he World Bank Board has approved a US$1.5 billion loan for the Swachh Bharat Mission (SBM) Support Operation more than 750 million live in India, with 80 percent living in rural areas. More than 500 million of the rural population in India Project to support the Government of India in continue to defecate in the open, suffering its efforts to ensure all citizens in rural areas from preventable deaths, illness, stunting, have access to improved sanitation – such harassment and economic losses. as a toilet or latrine with a focus on changing The SBM-G program focuses on ensuring behaviors – in ending the practice of open usage of toilets along with their construction. defecation by 2019. States and their implementing agencies will Specifically, this Project will support the be given incentives for meeting performance rural component, known as SBM – Gramin standards. Performance will be measured (SBM-G), over a five-year period using a against the states’ ability to reduce open new performance-based program which defecation, sustaining their open defecation links funds directly to results, ensuring free (ODF) status and improving solid and that benefits are delivered to the people in liquid waste management in rural areas. (Change background colour as needed) need – more than 60 percent of India’s rural The financing mechanism promotes the population. leadership of the states, which will have flexibility in innovating and adopting their Today, of the 2.4 billion people who lack own delivery models. access to improved sanitation globally, The World Bank in India • January 2016 11 Bihar Kosi Basin Development Project T he World Bank Board has approved a affected over 3.3 million people and caused US$ 250 million credit for the Bihar Kosi over US$ 1.2 billion in damage. Basin Development Project. Phase I, under implementation since March The Project will address the long-term 2011, was designed to help address the challenges of enhancing flood management short- to medium-term recovery needs of capacity and agricultural production in the the flood-affected population. So far about Kosi River Basin, building on the ongoing 31,000 houses have been completed through reconstruction work that started following the an owner-driven construction process; and 66 2008 Kosi river floods. bridges and 14 roads have been completed to restore and enhance connectivity. The Project will benefit about 10 million rural people, mostly small, marginal and landless Under the current Project, approved by the farmers, in the districts of Araria, Madhepura, Board, the state will enhance its resilience to Purnea, Saharsa, and Supaul. floods and increase agricultural production (Change background colour as needed) and productivity in the targeted districts. It In 2008, the Kosi River breached a portion will also help improve the Government of of the embankment system and caused Bihar’s capacity to respond promptly and unprecedented floods in Bihar. The breach effectively to future disasters. Recent Project Signings Andhra Pradesh Rural Inclusive Growth Project T he Government of India, the Government of Andhra Pradesh and the World Bank have signed a US$ 75 million credit for the across gram panchayats) of the state. It will invest in developing a network of social enterprises for food, nutrition, sanitation Andhra Pradesh Rural Inclusive Growth and other social enterprises which operate Project to enhance agricultural incomes at community and district level. It will also of small and marginal farmers and ensure support the Government of Andhra Pradesh increased access to services related to health, in its efforts at creating an enabling policy nutrition, sanitation and social entitlements. framework, and enhancing market access for farmers with real time analytics across sectors. The Project will focus on increasing economic opportunities for small and marginal farmers, Several Memorandum of Understandings especially from Scheduled Caste (SC) and (MoUs) with leading private sector Scheduled Tribe (ST) households in the 150 organizations are being planned to enable most backward mandals (cluster of villages farmers to better access markets. Investments will also be made in improving access to services in the areas of health, nutrition, and water and sanitation and increasing coverage and effectiveness of India’s social safety net programs. The credit agreement for the Project was signed by Raj Kumar, Joint Secretary, Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance, on behalf of the Government of India; Sunitha Kolaventy, Finance Secretary, (Change background colour as needed) on behalf of the Government of Andhra Pradesh; and Onno Ruhl, World Bank Country Director in India, on behalf of the World Bank. 12 The World Bank in India • January 2016 New Additions to the Public Information Center T his is a select listing of recent World Bank publications, working papers, operational documents and other information resources that are now available at the New Delhi Office Public Information Center. Policy Research Working Papers, Project Appraisal Documents, Project Information Documents and other reports can be downloaded in pdf format from ‘Documents and Reports’ at www.worldbank.org India Publications Publications may be consulted and copies of unpriced items obtained from: India Development Update: Fiscal policy for The World Bank PIC equitable growth The Hindustan Times House (Press Block) By Frederico Gil Sander, 18-20, Kasturba Gandhi Marg Saurabh Shome, Smriti Seth New Delhi – 110 001, India and Jaba Misra Tel: +91-11-4294 7000, Ext. 753 Available: on-line Website: www.worldbank.org English; Pages 80 Facebook: www.facebook.com/WorldBankIndia Email: indiapic@worldbank.org Published: October 2015 Report No.: 100453 PRINCIPAL DISTRIBUTOR India’s economy expanded by 7.3 percent in FY14- Viva Books Pvt Ltd 15 and 7.0 percent in 4737/23 Ansari Road, Daryaganj Q1 FY15-16 (y/y). Industrial growth increased and New Delhi – 110 002 despite government services slowing down, services Tel: +91-11-4224 2200 expanded. Domestic drivers increased, while exports Fax: +91-11-4224 2240 declined. Private consumption growth stayed strong Email: vivadelhi@vivagroupindia.net and investments gained momentum. Gross domestic product is expected to increase gradually to 7.5 percent Other Preferred Stockist in India in FY15-16. The positive outlook is dependent upon the Anand Associates implementation of important domestic reforms which 1219 Stock Exchange Tower include: boosting the balance sheets of the banking 12th Floor, Dalal Street sector through a sustainable solution of the debt Mumbai – 400 023 overhang of primarily power and road infrastructure Tel: +91-22-2272 3065/66 firms, continuing to improve the ease of doing business Email: thrupti@vsnl.com Website: www.myown.org and enacting the crucial Goods and Services Tax, and Fax: +91-11-2610 0573 (New Delhi) enhancing capacity of state and local governments to Fax: +91-80-4128 7582 (Bangalore) deliver public services as more resources are devolved from the centre. Allied Publishers Pvt Ltd Tel: +91-22-2261 7926/27 Email: mumbai.books@alliedpublishers.com India: Policy Research Working Papers Website: www.alliedpublishers.com WPS 7473 Bookwell Households or locations? Cities, catchment areas 24/4800 Ansari Road, Daryaganj and prosperity in India New Delhi – 110 002 By Yue Li and Martin G. Rama Tel: +91-11-2326 8786; 2325 7264 This paper combines insights from poverty analysis Email: bookwell@vsnl.net and urban economics, and develops a methodology to assess spatial performance with a high degree of granularity. This methodology is applied to India, where individual household survey records are mapped to The World Bank in India • January 2016 13 “places” (both rural and urban) below the district level. significantly large proportion of poor households are The analysis disentangles the contributions household located near areas with chronic and localized flooding. characteristics and locations make to labor earnings, These households are either below the poverty line or proxied by nominal household expenditure per capita. It have low incomes and reside in informal settlements or shows that one-third of the variation in predicted labor old and dilapidated structures. Future climate risks are earnings is explained by the locations where households likely to put greater burden on the poor and push them reside and by the interaction between these locations further into poverty unless well directed efforts are made and household characteristics such as education. In to protect them. parallel, this methodology provides a workable metric to describe spatial productivity patterns across India. WPS 7470 The paper shows that there is a gradation of spatial performance across places, rather than a clear rural- Measuring progress towards universal health urban divide. It also finds that distance matters: places coverage: With an application to 24 developing with higher productivity are close to each other, but some countries spread their prosperity over much broader areas than By Adam Wagstaff, Daniel Cotlear, Patrick Hoang-Vu others. Using the spatial distribution of this metric across Eozenou and Leander Robert Buisman India, the paper further classifies places at below-district The last few years have seen a growing commitment level into four tiers: top locations, their catchment areas, worldwide to universal health coverage (UHC). Yet average locations, and bottom locations. there is a lack of clarity on how to measure progress The analysis finds that some small cities are among towards UHC. This paper proposes a ‘mashup’ the top locations, while some large cities are not. index that captures both aspects of UHC: that It also finds that top locations and their catchment areas everyone—irrespective of their ability-to-pay—gets include many high-performing rural places, and are the health services they need; and that nobody suffers not necessarily more unequal than average locations. undue financial hardship as a result of receiving care. Preliminary analysis reveals that these top locations Service coverage is broken down into prevention and and their catchment areas display characteristics that are treatment, and financial protection into impoverishment generally believed to drive agglomeration economies and and catastrophic spending; nationally representative contribute to faster productivity growth. household survey data are used to adjust population averages to capture inequalities between the poor and better off; nonlinear tradeoffs are allowed between and WPS 7481 within the two dimensions of the UHC index; and all indicators are expressed such that scores run from 0 to The exposure, vulnerability, and ability to respond of 100, and higher scores are better. poor households to recurrent floods in Mumbai By Archana Mahesh Patankar In a sample of 24 countries for which there are detailed information on UHC-inspired reforms, a cluster of This paper examines poor households in the city of high-performing countries emerges with UHC scores Mumbai and their exposure, vulnerability, and ability to of between 79 and 84 (Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, respond to recurrent floods. The paper discusses policy Mexico and South Africa) and a cluster of low-performing implications for future adaptive capacity, resilience, and countries emerges with UHC scores in the range 35–57 poverty alleviation. The study focuses particularly on the (Ethiopia, Guatemala, India, Indonesia and Vietnam). poor households, which tend to have greater exposure Countries have mostly improved their UHC scores and vulnerability to floods and limited ability to respond between the earliest and latest years for which there given the constraints on physical and financial resources. are data—by about 5 points on average; however, the The study seeks to understand the implications of the improvement has come from increases in receipt of key fact that poor households are more likely than non-poor health interventions, not from reductions in the incidence households to be located in flood-prone areas. The study of out-of-pocket payments on welfare. used the land use maps for the selected flood-prone areas to determine the extent and spread of poor and non-poor households and other types of assets and WPS 7451 activities in areas with chronic and localized flooding. Effects of land misallocation on capital allocations in Primary data were obtained through detailed household India surveys to understand the vulnerability and impacts of By Gilles Duranton, Syed Ejaz Ghani, Arti Grover the extreme floods of July 2005, recurrent floods and Goswami and William Robert Kerr the ability of households to respond and cope. The study examined the option of relocation to flood-free Growing research and policy interest focuses on the areas and identified factors that influence families’ misallocation of output and factors of production decisions regarding relocation. The study finds that a in developing economies. This paper considers the 14 The World Bank in India • January 2016 possible misallocation of financial loans. Using plant- This year the publication addresses regulations affecting level data on the organized and unorganized sectors, the 10 areas of everyday business activity including: Starting paper describes the temporal, geographic, and industry a business, dealing with construction permits, getting distributions of financial loans. electricity, registering property, getting credit, protecting minority investors, paying taxes, trading across borders, The focus of the analysis is the hypothesis that land enforcing contracts, resolving insolvency. misallocation might be an important determinant of financial misallocation (for example, because of the Doing Business 2016 updates all indicators as of June role of land as collateral against loans). Using district- 1, 2015, ranks economies on their overall ease of doing industry variations, the analysis finds evidence to business, and analyzes reforms to business regulation. support this hypothesis, although it does not find a This report illustrates how reforms in business regulations total reduction in the intensity of financial loans or those are being used to analyze economic outcomes for being given to new entrants. domestic entrepreneurs and for the wider economy. The analysis also considers differences by gender of business owners and workers in firms. Although Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate potential early gaps for businesses with substantial Change on Poverty female employment have disappeared in the organized sector, a sizeable and persistent gap remains in the By Stephane Hallegatte, unorganized sector. Mook Bangalore, Laura Bonzanigo, Marianne Fay, Tamaro Kane, Ulf WPS 7448 Narloch, JulieRozenberg, David Treguer and The effect of metro expansions on air pollution in Adrien Vogt-Schilb Delhi By Deepti Goel and Sonam Gupta Available: on-line English; Pages 227 The Delhi Metro (DM) is a mass rapid transit system Published: November 2015 serving the National Capital Region of India. It is also the ISBN: 978-1-4648-0673-5 world’s first rail project to earn carbon credits under the e-ISBN: 978-1-4648-0674-2 Clean Development Mechanism of the United Nations for reductions in CO2 emissions. Did the DM also lead This report examines the potential impact of climate to localized reduction in three transportation source change and climate policies on poverty reduction. It also pollutants? Looking at the period 2004–2006, one of provides guidance on how to create a “win-win situation the larger rail extensions of the DM led to a 34 percent so that climate change policies contribute to poverty reduction in localized CO at a major traffic intersection in reduction and poverty-reduction policies contribute the city. Results for NO2 are also suggestive of a decline, to climate change mitigation and resilience building. while those for PM25 are inconclusive due to missing The key finding of the report is that climate change data. These impacts of pollutant reductions are for the represents a significant obstacle to the sustained short run. A complete accounting of all long run costs eradication of poverty, but future impacts on poverty and benefits should be done before building capital are determined by policy choices: rapid, inclusive, and intensive metro rail projects. climate-informed development can prevent most short- term impacts whereas immediate pro-poor, emissions- reduction policies can drastically limit long-term ones. Other Publications Doing Business 2016: Measuring Regulatory Quality Investment Climate Reforms: An Independent and Efficiency Evaluation of World Bank Group Support to Reforms of Business Regulations By World Bank Available: on-line By World Bank English; Pages 349 Available: on-line Published: October 2015 English; Pages 250 ISBN: 978-1-4648-0667-4 Published: October 2015 e-ISBN: 978-1-4648-0668-1 ISBN: 978-1-4648-0628-5 Doing Business e-ISBN: 978-1-4648-0629-2 Independent Evaluation Doing Business 2016 is the Group Studies 13th publication in a series of annual reports comparing This evaluation by the business regulation in 189 economies. Independent Evaluation The World Bank in India • January 2016 15 Group (IEG) assesses the relevance, effectiveness, year. As a low-elevation city with a tropical monsoon and social value of World Bank Group support to climate, Dhaka has a long history of river flooding as a investment climate reforms as it relates to concerns natural hazard. Recent major floods have been worse in for inclusion and shared prosperity. IEG finds that the terms of depth and extent of inundation and duration, World Bank Group has supported a comprehensive especially in fringe areas, where many of the city’s poor menu of investment climate reforms and has improved reside. Rapid, unplanned urbanization and the gradual investment climate in countries, as measured by number filling up of low-lying flood plains, rivers, canals, and of laws enacted, streamlining of processes and time, other water bodies traditionally used to drain or retain or simple cost savings for private firms. However, the water during rainfall have exacerbated the problem. impact on investment, jobs, business formation, and A growing concern is that, in a changing climate, growth is not straightforward. characterized by heavier and more erratic rainfall in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Basin during the IEG recommends that the World Bank Group expand its monsoon season, the situation may worsen. range of diagnostic tools and integrate them in the areas of the business environment not yet covered by existing tools; develop an approach to identify the social effects Toward New Sources of Competitiveness in of regulatory reforms on all groups expected to be Bangladesh: Key Insights of the Diagnostic Trade affected by them beyond the business community; and Integration Study exploit synergies by ensuring that World Bank and IFC staff improve their understanding of each other’s work By Sanjay Kathuria and and business models. Mariem Mezghenni Malouche Available: on-line Water, Sanitation, Hygiene, and Nutrition in English; Pages 162 Bangladesh: Can Building Toilets Affect Children’s Published: October 2015 Growth? ISBN: 978-1-4648-0574-5 e-ISBN: 978-1-4648-0582-0 By Iffat Mahmud and Directions in Development Nkosinathi Mbuya – Trade Available: on-line English; Pages 91 Published: October 2015 Bangladesh faces one of its greatest development ISBN: 978-1-4648-0698-8 challenges: to provide gainful employment to the over e-ISBN: 978-1-4648-0699-5 2 million people that will join the labor force each year World Bank Studies over the next decade. Moreover, only 54.1 million This report provides a of its 94 million working age people are employed. systematic review of the Bangladesh needs to use its labor endowment even evidence to date on the more intensively to increase growth and, in turn, to relationship between water and sanitation and nutrition. absorb the incoming labor. It also surveys the potential impact of improved water, The report identifies four pillars to sustain and sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) on undernutrition. accelerate export growth: (1) breaking into new markets through better trade Urban Flooding of Greater Dhaka in a Changing logistics to reduce delivery lags and better Climate: Building Local Resilience to Disaster Risk exploitation of regional trading opportunities; (2) breaking into new products through more neutral By Susmita Dasgupta, and rational trade policy and taxation and bonded Asif Zaman, Subhendu Roy, warehouse schemes, concerted efforts to spur Mainul Huq, Sarwar Jahan domestic investment and attract foreign direct and Ainun Nishat investment, and strategic development and Available: on-line promotion of services trade; English; Pages 256 (3) improving worker and consumer welfare by Published: October 2015 improving skills and literacy, implementing labor and ISBN: 978-1-4648-0710-7 work safety guidelines and making safety nets more e-ISBN: 978-1-4648-0712-1 effective in dealing with trade shocks; and Directions in Development – General (4) building a supportive environment, including sustaining sound macroeconomic fundamentals and Dhaka faces the recurring phenomena of urban flooding strengthening the institutional capacity for strategic and waterlogging following intense rainfall nearly every policy. 16 The World Bank in India • January 2016 Africa’s Demographic Transition: Dividend or increasing interconnectedness of national health Disaster? systems through globalization, with its implications for international health professional mobility; and By David Canning, the greater complexity of the public-private mix in Sangeeta Raja and Abdo S. employment options. Yazbeck Available: on-line English; Pages 214 State and Trends of Carbon Pricing Published: October 2015 October 2015 ISBN: 978-1-4648-0489-2 e-ISBN: 978-1-4648-0490-8 By World Bank Africa Development Forum Available: on-line English; Pages 60 Africa is poised on the Published: October 2015 edge of a potential takeoff ISBN: 978-1-4648-0725-1 to sustained economic growth. This takeoff can be abetted by a demographic The report is about the dividend from the changes in population age structure. key developments and Declines in child mortality, followed by declines in prospects of existing and fertility, produce a ‘bulge’ generation and a large emerging carbon initiatives. number of working age people, giving a boost to the A challenging international economy. In the short run, lower fertility leads to lower carbon market has not stopped the development of youth dependency rates and greater female labor force domestic carbon pricing initiatives. participation outside the home. Today, about 40 national and over 20 sub-national Smaller family sizes also mean more resources to invest jurisdictions responsible for almost one fourth of global in the health and education per child boosting worker greenhouse gas emissions are putting a price on productivity. In the long run increased life spans from carbon. Together, these initiatives cover the equivalent health improvements mean that this large, high-earning of almost 6 gigatons of carbon dioxide, or about 12 cohort will also want to save for retirement, creating percent of global emissions. higher savings and investments, leading to further productivity gains. Poverty, Inequality, and Evaluation: Changing Perspectives The Economics of Health Professional Education By Ray C. Rist, and Careers: Insights from a Literature Review Frederic P. Martin and By Barbara McPake, Allison Ana María Fernandez Squires, Mahat Agya and Available: on-line Edson Araujo English; Pages 310 Available: on-line Published: October 2015 English; Pages 88 ISBN: 978-1-4648-0703-9 Published: October 2015 e-ISBN: 978-1-4648-0704-6 ISBN: 978-1-4648-0616-2 e-ISBN: 978-1-4648-0617-9 World Bank Studies The basic premise of this book is that the conversation on the future of development needs to shift from a This publication aims to focus on poverty to that of inequality. The poverty inform the design of health emphasis is in an intellectual and political cul de sac. professionals’ education policies to better manage It does not address the fundamental question of why health labor market forces toward UHC. It documents people are poor nor what can be done structurally and what is known about the influence of market forces on institutionally to reduce and eliminate it. the health-professional formation process. The various chapters illustrate in the context of various The contexts of the market for health professional countries and sectors around the world, the significant training have been subject to important changes in contributions that evaluators can make in terms of recent decades. improvement of the analytical framework, analysis of In particular, changes have been felt in the growing the performance and results of specific programs and extent of employment of mid-level cadres of health projects, as well as assessing and designing better professionals; changes in technology and the public management systems in terms of poverty and associated growth of high skilled occupations; the inequality reduction. The World Bank in India • January 2016 17 India Project Documents Technical Education Quality Improvement Project III Swatch Bharat Mission Support Project Date 02 Dec 2015 Date 03 Nov 2015 Project ID P154523 Project ID P154523 Report No. ISDSA16092 (Integrated Safeguards Report No. E4842 (Environmental Assessment) Data Sheet) SGF153 (Environmental Assessment) Eastern Dedicated Freight Corridor Project SGF1537 (Indigenous Peoples Plan) Date 26 Oct 2015 Project ID P114338 Uttarakhand Workforce Development Project Report No. RES19028 (Project Paper) Date 02 Dec 2015 Project ID P154525 Uttarakhand Disaster Recovery Project Report No. PIDC30731 (Project Information Date 23 Oct 2015 Document – Concept Stage) Project ID P146653 ISDSC14670 (Integrated Safeguards Report No. 100508 (Procurement Plan) Data Sheet) Second National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project National Rural Livelihoods Project Date 23 Oct 2015 Date 04 Nov 2015 Project ID P144726 Project ID 104164 Report No. 100508 (Procurement Plan) Report No. 100639 (Procurement Plan – Jharkhand Mission) Second Kerala Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Project Madhya Pradesh Higher Education Quality Improvement Project Date 21 Oct 2015 Project ID P121774 Date 04 Nov 2015 Report No. 100522 (Procurement Plan) Project ID P153251 Report No. RES21001 (Project Paper) From the Blogworld How the Insurance Industry Can Make Our Roads Safer By Karla Gonzalez Carvajal and Nathalie Louat R oad crashes are a global health and development challenge with significant human and economic costs, especially in developing countries. The leading cause of death among people aged 15-29, road crashes kill 1.25 million people every year and injure another 50 million – more deaths than from malaria or tuberculosis. In low and middle-income countries, this is estimated to reduce GDP by 3 to 5 percent. The United Nations recognized the severity of this challenge by adopting specific road safety targets in the Sustainable Development Goals: to halve the number of global deaths and injuries from road crashes by 2020. Read more: http://tinyurl.com/grqvv4u 18 The World Bank in India • January 2016 Shrinking ice: A potential meltdown for South Asia By Saurabh Dani I n mid-August, close to a 12.5 sq. km of chunk of ice separated from the Jacobshavn glacier in Greenland and tumbled down into the sea. The Jacobshavn is rumored to be the glacier that downed the Titanic. While the event was small compared to the huge ice chunk break-aways in the Antarctic, the spotlight was welcome. A few weeks back, Obama become the first US President to visit the Arctic. Halfway across the globe, in the South Asia region, another ice-snow regime is under threat and has the potential to trigger catastrophic economic and social consequences. Brahmaputra and the Indus that indirectly support over 700 million people across South Asia. The Hindu Kush-Himalayan region is widely called the third pole with three mighty rivers – Ganges, Read more: http://tinyurl.com/gmbfy7t It is time to be climate operational By Anita Marangoly George T he world forged a historic climate deal in Paris in December, cheered on and celebrated by people around the world. Getting to that agreement has involved years of work and collaboration that resulted in what many of us thought we would not witness in our life time. The agreement is in – now it’s time for us to help the countries we work with to put their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) into action. Being in Paris was exhilarating. The World Bank Group team was active on many fronts – the support for carbon prices, the Africa Climate Business Plan, our work on renewable energy, energy efficiency and contribution to energy access. How do we waste less, pollute less and do more to promote energy access? Read more: http://tinyurl.com/j5v9nxe Will India leapfrog toward universal health coverage? By Somil Nagpal I t’s that time of year again, when we observe a day dedicated to the most ambitious health goal of all: universal health coverage, or UHC. On UHC Day caused by medical expenses remains high. Though government health spending is estimated to have risen to 30 percent of the country’s total health (Dec. 12) we commemorate the date in 2012 when the expenditure – up from about 20 percent in 2005 – United Nations unanimously endorsed a resolution and out-of-pocket payments have fallen to about 58 urging governments to ensure that all people can percent, dropping from 69 percent a decade ago, access health care without financial hardship. these levels are still high and not commensurate with India’s level of socio-economic development. In India, where most people have dug deep into their In China, government spending accounts for 56 pockets to pay doctors, pharmacies and diagnostic percent of total health expenditure. centers (or ‘out-of-pocket spending’) as the norm for a long time, vulnerability to impoverishment Read more: http://tinyurl.com/jnegzud The World Bank in India • January 2016 19 (Change background colour as needed) The National Ganga River Basin Project The mighty Ganga Basin 7,000 m above sea level India originates in Gangotri glacier Thousands of Haridwar Area of the basin Millions megawatts worth of hydropower potential 860,000 km2, i.e. congregate on the banks of the Ganga in the upper 26% of India’s landmass 500 reaches for religious and cultural million people live in the activities Ganga basin in India Kanpur 520 persons/km 2 50 major cities The Ganga basin comprises Ganga is among population density – located on main strem, 11 states and 17 major highest amongst all each with a population tributaries including Yamuna, Varanasi top 10 most polluted basins in the world of > 50,000 people Kosi and Chambal rivers rivers in the world Patna Allahabad 25% of India’s >50% water resources of India’s net irrigated accounted for by area falls within the Largest the Ganga basin mangrove 2,500 km , 2 Kolkata forest Total length from Sundarbans source to sea US$ 700 billion GDP 200 million people in the basin The Ganga l 140 fish species l 5 endangered species including Gangetic Dolphin accounted for by the basin live below poverty line is home to: l 2 biosphere reserves and Royal Bengal Tiger T he Ganga is India’s most important and iconic river. It flows down from its glacial source in the high Himalayas to course through five states in the northern quality of the river’s waters. Today, the Ganga’s waters are sullied by the incessant outpouring of sewage, as well as by the large volumes of solid and industrial waste plains before draining into the swirling waters of the Bay that are churned out by human and economic activity of Bengal through the Sunderbans delta, the largest along the river’s banks. mangrove system in the world. Along its 2,500 km The absence of adequate infrastructure, along with weak journey, the river enriches huge swathes of agricultural environmental governance and little technical expertise land and sustains a long procession of towns and cities. to manage these extreme pollution pressures, has The sprawling Ganga basin, an area of 860,000 sq km resulted in the rapid deterioration of the water’s quality spread across 11 states, is the world’s most populous in recent decades. river basin. It is home to more than 600 million Indians, The Ganga’s mainstem runs through 50 major Indian close to half the country’s population; and over 40 cities, almost all of which have a population of more percent of the country’s GDP is generated in this region. than 50,000 people. These towns and cities generate The basin provides more than one-third of India’s some 3 billion liters of sewage every day, only a fraction surface water, 90 percent of which is used for irrigation. of which is treated before it reaches the river. While Paradoxically, this fertile region is also home to some of domestic sewage accounts for 70-80 percent of the the poorest sections of India’s population, with more than wastewater that flows into the Ganga, Industrial effluents 200 million people living below the national poverty line. add another 15 percent, with far-reaching impacts on human and aquatic health due to their toxic nature. And, As India’s holiest river, the Ganga has a cultural and in the absence of adequate solid waste management in spiritual significance that far transcends the basin’s most cities, mounds of uncollected garbage add to the boundaries. It is worshipped as a living goddess and, pervasive pollution. since time immemorial, people from across the country have flocked to the many historic temple towns the lie World Bank Assistance along the river’s banks to pray and bathe in its flowing The World Bank is supporting the Government of waters. India in its effort to rejuvenate the Ganga River. The $1 Pollution in the Ganga billion National Ganga River Basin Project is helping the National Ganga River Basin Authority (NGRBA) Despite this iconic status and religious heritage, the build institutional capacity for rejuvenating the river. It Ganga today is facing formidable pollution pressures, is also financing key infrastructure investments in the along with the attendant threats to its biodiversity five mainstem states – Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, and environmental sustainability. An ever-growing Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal. The Project has population, together with inadequately planned two key components: Component 1 ($200 million) urbanization and industrialization, has affected the supports institutional development that includes the 20 The World Bank in India • January 2016 operationalization of institutions at the central and state Rishikesh/Haridwar, Allahabad, Patna, and Kolkata, as level; a communications and stakeholder engagement well as in smaller towns that lie along the river. This will program; water quality monitoring; and technical result in the installation of over 300 MLD of new sewage assistance for city service providers and environmental treatment capacity and over 2,000 km of new sewerage regulators. Component 2 comprises a $800 million networks in these urban centres. financing window for infrastructure investments in four Building on lessons learnt from earlier efforts to clean sectors: wastewater collection and treatment, control the Ganga, these investments have been designed of industrial pollution, solid waste management, and to ensure their long-term sustainability. The new riverfront development. wastewater investments will be developed in the PPP mode but innovative 10-year Design–Build–Operate The Institutions (DBO) contracts will ensure that the private operator The National Mission for Clean Ganga (NMCG), the maintains the infrastructure for 10 years. This period will operational wing of the NGRBA, has been set up to be utilized for strengthening the technical and financial coordinate the river’s clean-up program. State Program capacity of the ULB service providers to manage the Management Groups (SPMGs) have been established long-term operation of these assets. In a bid to ensure in all five mainstem states. Investments are being that the new assets do not remain unutilized, all houses/ implemented by multiple executing agencies, mainly properties will be connected to the sewerage networks; parastatal organizations such as the Uttar Pradesh these networks will, in turn, be connected to new or Jal Nigam, Bihar Urban Infrastructure Development existing treatment systems. Corporation, Kolkata Metropolitan Development In addition, an ongoing $43 million investment in river- Authority and some Urban Local Bodies (ULBs). front development in Patna, will not only build a new 6-km promenade along the river but also help upgrade The Investments public infrastructure such as toilets, bathing areas and The Project aims to plug some of the major infrastructure other public amenities at 21 ghats. An internationally- (Change background colour as needed) gaps in cities along the Ganga’s mainstem. Several recognized research institute concerning all aspects of key investments have been identified primarily to the river, known as the Ganga Knowledge Center, has address the problem of untreated domestic sewage also been established; the institute is in the early stages from towns and cities along the river. Work has already of operationalization. begun on wastewater investments in the cities of World Bank Policy Research Working Papers WPS 7499 for recent cross-country evidence on inequality and Regional productivity convergence in Peru growth By Leonardo Iacovone, Luis Fernando Sanchez Bayardo By Aart C. Kraay and Siddharth Sharma WPS 7493 WPS 7498 SMEs, age, and jobs: A review of the literature, Regionalism in services: A study of ASEAN metrics, and evidence By Batshur Gootiiz and Aaditya Mattoo By Gemechu A. Aga, David C. Francis and Jorge Luis Rodriguez Meza WPS 7497 Women’s police stations and domestic violence: WPS 7492 Evidence from Brazil The role of imports for exporter performance in Peru By Elizaveta Perova and Sarah Reynolds By Martha D. Pierola Castro, Ana Margarida Fernandes and Thomas Farolec WPS 7496 Nighttime lights revisited: The use of nighttime lights WPS 7491 data as a proxy for economic variables Domestic value added in exports: Theory and firm By Douglas M. Addison and Benjamin P. Stewart evidence from China By Hiau Looi Kee and Heiwai Tang WPS 7495 The long-term impacts of international migration: WPS 7490 Evidence from a lottery Discrimination as a coordination device: Markets and By John Gibson, David J. Mckenzie, Halahingano the emergence of identity Rohorua and Steven Stillman By Kaushik Basu WPS 7494 WPS 7489 Weak instruments in growth regressions: Implications Appraising cross-national income inequality The World Bank in India • January 2016 21 databases: An introduction By Frederik Noack, Sven Wunder, Arild Angelsen and By Francisco H. G. Ferreira, Nora Lustig and Daniel Jan Börner Chaim Teles WPS 7477 WPS 7488 Climate change impacts and mitigation in the Unhappy development: dissatisfaction with life in the developing world: An integrated assessment of the wake of the Arab spring agriculture and forestry sectors By Efstratia Arampatzi, Martijn Burger, Elena By Petr Havlík, Hugo Jean Pierre Valin, Mykola Gusti and Ianchovichina and Tina Röhricht et.al. WPS 7487 WPS 7476 On the welfare implications of automation Social protection in the face of climate change: By Maya Eden and Paul Gaggl Targeting principles and financing mechanisms By Michael R. Carter and Sarah Ann Janzen WPS 7486 Urbanization and property rights WPS 7475 By Yongyang Cai, Harris Selod and Jevgenijs Steinbuks Climate change impacts on rural poverty in low- elevation coastal zones WPS 7485 By Edward B. Barbier When do in-service teacher training and books improve student achievement? Experimental evidence WPS 7474 from Mongolia Environmental reliance, climate exposure, and By Habtamu Neda Fuje and Prateek Tandon vulnerability: A cross-section analysis of structural and stochastic poverty WPS 7484 By Arild Angelsen and Therese Dokken Mobility, scarring and job quality in Indonesia’s labor market WPS 7473 By Darian Naidoo, Truman G. Packard and Ilmiawan Households or locations? Cities, catchment areas and Auwalin prosperity in India By Yue Li and Martin G. Rama WPS 7483 The impacts of climate change on poverty in 2030 WPS 7472 and the potential from rapid, inclusive, and climate- Can intense exposure to hand-washing and hygiene informed development information campaigns affect children’s socio- By Julie Rozenberg and Stephane Hallegatte emotional skills? Evidence from Senegal By Christian Borja-Vega, Bertha Briceno, Fernando WPS 7482 Garcia Vicente Social protection and disaster risk management in the Philippines: The case of typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan) WPS 7471 By Thomas Vaughan Bowen Tracking wage inequality trends with prices and different trade models: Evidence from Mexico WPS 7481 By Timothy Halliday, Daniel Lederman and Raymond The exposure, vulnerability, and ability to respond of Robertson poor households to recurrent floods in Mumbai By Archana Mahesh Patankar WPS 7470 Measuring progress towards universal health WPS 7480 coverage: With an application to 24 developing Disaster risk, climate change, and poverty: Assessing countries the global exposure of poor people to floods and By Adam Wagstaff, Daniel Cotlear, Patrick Hoang-Vu droughts Eozenou and Leander Robert Buisman By Hessel C. Winsemius, Brenden Jongman, Ted I.E. Veldkamp and et.al. WPS 7469 Comparing cash and voucher transfers in a WPS 7479 humanitarian context: Evidence from the Democratic Households and heat stress: Estimating the Republic of Congo distributional consequences of climate change By Jenny C. Aker By Jisung Park, Stephane Hallegatte, Mook Bangalore and Evan Sandhoefner WPS 7468 All in my head? The play of exclusion and WPS 7478 discrimination in the labor market Responses to weather and climate: A cross-section By Maitreyi Das analysis of rural incomes 22 The World Bank in India • January 2016 WPS 7467 recession Socioeconomic and fiscal impact of large-scale gold By Ha Minh Nguyen mining in Mali WPS 7455 By Aly Sanoh and Massaoly Coulibaly On the delegation of aid implementation to multilateral WPS 7466 agencies Quantifying spillover effects from large farm By Kurt Annen and Stephen Knack establishments: The case of Mozambique WPS 7454 By Klaus W. Deininger, Fang Xia, Aurelio Mate and Ellen Dual credit markets and household access to finance: Payongayong Evidence from a representative Chinese household WPS 7465 survey Dark costs, missing data: Shedding some light on By Robert J. Cull, Li Gan, Nan Gao and L. Colin Xu services trade By James E. Anderson, Ingo Borchert, Aaditya Mattoo WPS 7453 and Yoto Valentinov Yotov Jobs and land use within cities: A survey of theory, evidence, and policy WPS 7464 By Arti Grover Goswami and Somik V. Lall Deep trade agreements and vertical FDI: The devil is in the details WPS 7452 By Alberto Osnago, Nadia Rocha and Michele Ruta Exporter behavior, country size and stage of development: Evidence from the exporter dynamics WPS 7463 database The demand for, and impact of, youth internships: By Ana Margarida Fernandes, Caroline Freund and Evidence from a randomized experiment in Yemen Martha D. Pierola Castro By David J. Mckenzie, Nabila Assaf and Ana Paula Cusolito WPS 7451 Effects of land misallocation on capital allocations in WPS 7462 India The additionality impact of a matching grant program By Gilles Duranton, Syed Ejaz Ghani, Arti Grover for small firms: Experimental evidence from Yemen Goswami and William Robert Kerr By David J. Mckenzie, Nabila Assaf and Ana Paula Cusolito WPS 7450 Social norms theory and development economics WPS 7461 By Lina Maria Jorun Eriksson Bright Lights, Big Cities: Measuring national and subnational economic growth in Africa from outer WPS 7449 space, with an application to Kenya and Rwanda MSME taxation in transition economies: Country By Tom Bundervoet, Laban Maiyo and Apurva Sanghi experience on the costs and benefits of introducing special tax regimes WPS 7460 By Michael Engelschalk and Jan Loeprick Electricity connections and firm performance in 183 countries WPS 7448 By Carolin Geginat and Rita Ramalho The effect of metro expansions on air pollution in Delhi By Deepti Goel and Sonam Gupta WPS 7459 Are the children of uneducated farmers doubly WPS 7446 disadvantaged? Farm, nonfarm and intergenerational Understanding poverty reduction in Sri Lanka: educational mobility in rural China Evidence from 2002 to 2012/13 By M. Shahe Emran and Yan Sun By Lidia Ceriani, Maria Gabriela Inchauste Comboni and Sergio Daniel Olivieri WPS 7458 Exploring the sources of downward bias in measuring WPS 7445 inequality of opportunity Modeling the marginal value of rainforest losses: A By Gabriel Lara Ibarra and Adan L. Martinez Cruz dynamic value function approach By Jon Strand WPS 7457 Pension coverage for parents and educational WPS 7444 investment in children: Evidence from urban China The causal impacts of child labor law in Brazil: Some By Ren Mu and Yang Du preliminary findings By Caio Piza and André Portela Souza WPS 7456 Demand-driven propagation: Evidence from the great The World Bank in India • January 2016 23 The World Bank in India VOL 14 / NO 4 • January 2016 Public Information Center World Bank Depository The Hindustan Times House (Press Block) Libraries in India 18-20, Kasturba Gandhi Marg ◆ Annamalai University New Delhi - 110 001, India Annamalainagar Tel: +91-11- 4294 7000, Ext. 753 ◆ Centre for Studies in Social Contact: Sunita Malhotra Sciences Kolkata ◆ Giri Institute of Development Studies Lucknow ◆ Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics Pune ◆ Guru Nanak Dev University Media Inquiries Amritsar The World Bank ◆ Indian Institute of 70, Lodi Estate Management New Delhi - 110 003 Ahmedabad Contact: Sudip Mozumder ◆ Indian Institute of Public Email: mediaindia@worldbank.org Administration New Delhi Tel: +91-11-4147 9220 ◆ Institute of Development (Change background colour as needed) Studies Jaipur ◆ Institute of Economic The World Bank Websites Growth New Delhi Main: www.worldbank.org ◆ Institute of Financial India: www.worldbank.org.in Management and Research Chennai Facebook: www.facebook.com/ WorldBankIndia ◆ Institute of Social and Economic Change Bangalore ◆ Karnataka University Dharwad ◆ Kerala University Library Thiruvananthapuram ◆ Centre for Economic and Social Studies Hyderabad ◆ Pt. 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