COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING ROUND 7 -8 NOV -DEC 2020 Publication Date BACKGROUND NIGERIA In April 2020, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), with support from the World Bank, launched the COVID - 19 National Longitudinal Phone Survey (NLPS); a monthly survey of a nationally representative sample of 1,950 households to monitor the socioeconomic impact of the pandemic and other shocks. The first round (baseline) of the survey was conducted in April/May 2020, during which a federally mandated lockdown was in full effect. By the time of the seventh and eighth rounds of the NLPS – conducted in November 7-23, 2020 and December 5- 21, 2020 respectively – there were far fewer restrictions on activities and movement within the country. Yet by the end of December, recorded COVID-19 case numbers in Nigeria were starting to pick up, necessitating new limits, including on large gatherings (see Annex 1 for Round 7 and 8 survey timing and daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases). This brief presents the combined findings from the seventh and eighth rounds of the Nigeria COVID-19 NLPS. The seventh round of the NLPS repeated many previous questions on safe practices in re- sponse to COVID-19, so the progress of these indicators over time can be tracked. The seventh round also sought to ensure that all household members were correctly covered by the survey, by explicitly updating the household roster. Given the importance of agriculture for livelihoods in Nigeria, the eighth round of the NLPS included specific questions on crop farming: since the eighth round was carried out in December, these ques- tions come after the end of the rainy season. SUMMARY  Households have become laxer regarding safe 70% to 80% between the 2019 and 2020 agricultur- practices, with the share of respondents washing al seasons; their hands after being in public all or most of the  More crop farming households are using farm in- time dropping from 83% to 73% between July 2020 puts, and are positive about their revenues from and November 2020; crop sales in 2020/21 compared to previous agri-  Yet access to hygiene-related basic needs increased cultural seasons, potentially due to rising food pric- between July 2020 and November 2020 with the es; share of households having insufficient soap to  While rising food prices may help net producers, wash hands in the last seven days declining from food price shocks continue to hit consumers, along 24% to 11%; with many other types of shocks: around 83% of  The share of respondents who were working re- households reported an increase in the price of mained around pre-crisis levels in December 2020, major food items that they consumed; although persistent churning in the non-farm enter-  Household are still adopting potentially harmful prise sector suggests that some businesses are yet coping strategies in response to shocks, with 58% to fully stabilize; of households that were hit by a shock between  Agriculture has become an even more important July 2020 and December 2020 reducing their food income source, with the share of households par- consumption in response. ticipating in crop-related farm work rising from SAFE PRACTICES AND HEALTH The share of respondents implementing safe practices ber 2020, this figure had dropped to 73%. Similarly, the has fallen throughout the course of the COVID-19 cri- share of respondents wearing masks in public all or sis despite the rising daily confirmed cases. In July 2020, most of the time reduced from 74% in July 2020 to 60% 83% of respondents reported washing their hands after in November 2020. being in public all or most of the time, yet by Novem- 1 https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING *This figure includes only 1,607 observations that represent HHs with information for June, July , August, and November Additionally, respondents started to attend more reli- or social gatherings in the last seven days almost dou- gious or social gatherings, where COVID-19 could be bled, from 23% to 41% over the same period. Never- spread more easily, as 2020 drew on. Between July theless, it is important to note that the November 2020 2020 and November 2020, the share of respondents results from the seventh round of the NLPS precede attending three or more religious or social gatherings in the bans on large social gatherings initiated in late De- the last seven days rose from 29% to 42%. This shift cember 2020: the effects of these increased restrictions was particularly marked in urban areas, where the may not yet be captured by the data. share of respondents attending three or more religious *This table includes only 1,607 observations that represent HHs with information for June, July, August, and November https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 2 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING BASIC NEEDS Even if respondents became laxer about health and This may partially be due to seasonal variation, as June safety practices, their access to soap and water ap- is typically just after the arrival of the rainy season, peared to improve throughout 2020. The share of while November is shortly after. Yet access to soap for households with insufficient access to drinking water in handwashing – which would not be subject to the same the past seven days halved from 20% to 10% between seasonal variation – also improved substantially be- June 2020 and November 2020, while the share of tween June 2020 and November 2020, with the share households with insufficient access to water for hand- of households having insufficient soap to wash hands in washing dropped from 6% to 2% over the same period. the last seven days declining from 24% to 11%. EMPLOYMENT The rebound in the share of respondents working with pre-crisis levels. As in previous rounds, the share showed little sign of wavering in November and De- of respondents working was higher in rural areas (at cember of 2020. The overall share of respondents 91%) than in urban areas (at 80%). working was 88% in December 2020, roughly in line This figure inc ludes only 1,383 observations that represent HHs with information for all rounds and that they did not change respondents along the way. https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 3 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING NON-FARM ENTERPRISES Even with respondents back at work, however, evi- with non-farm businesses) had also been closed for at dence of churning in the non-farm enterprise sector least one month between June and November 2020. suggests people’s working situations remain precarious. Moreover, just 23% of households with non-farm busi- Around 17% of households who had non-farm busi- nesses in 2020 operated them continuously since the nesses during 2020 were not operating their business in peak of restrictions in April/May. December 2020. Of these, 61% (11% of all households AGRICULTURE An increase in agricultural activity appears to be one from 70% in the 2018/19 agricultural season (running key response to the COVID-19 crisis. In previous from March 2018 to February 2019). The increase was rounds of the NLPS, it was observed that households’ particularly stark in urban areas, where the share of main income earners were switching into – or return- households doing crop farming rose from 35% to 56% ing to – work in the agricultural sector, as work was between the 2018/19 and 2020/21 agricultural seasons. resumed. As the December 2020 round of the NLPS Yet even in rural areas, there was a slight increase in shows, the share of households doing crop-related farm the share of households doing crop farming – from 86% work in the 2020/21 agricultural season (running from to 91% – over the same period. March 2020 to February 2021) reached 80%, rising *The sample was restricted to on ly the HHs that also partic ipated on Phone Survey R3, R5, and R8 (N=1,645). https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 4 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING Farm work was more prevalent for poorer households the 2020/21 agricultural season, compared with 66% of than richer households in the 2020/21 agricultural sea- households in the richest consumption quintile. This son. Around 89% of households in the poorest con- underlines the particular importance of agricultural sumption quintile engaged in crop-related farm work in work for poor and vulnerable Nigerians. Even with the sizeable shift towards agricultural work, actual or expected revenues would be higher or much farming households were relatively positive and opti- higher in the 2020/21 agricultural season than in previ- mistic about their main crop revenues for the 2020/21 ous agricultural seasons, compared with 63% of crop agricultural season. More than three-quarters of crop farming households in the top consumption quintile. In farming households reported that actual and expected part, these patterns may arise because prices of food revenues from the sale of their main crop would be items have risen sharply throughout 2020: this could higher or much higher in the 2020/21 agricultural sea- benefit net producers, although many households may son compared with previous agricultural seasons. be experiencing loss of purchasing power – as they Moreover, the situation seems more positive for poor- have to buy food too – even as their farm revenues er households. Almost 93% of crop farming households rise. in the bottom consumption quintile reported that their Note: It includes actual revenue from sales and expected revenue when harvests have not been sold. https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 5 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING As well as increased farm revenues, more crop farming period, with the share of crop farming households using households are using farm inputs during the COVID-19 hired labor rising from 60% to 73% between the crisis. The share of crop farming households using or- 2018/19 and 2020/21 agricultural seasons. Such increas- ganic fertilizer more than doubled from 29% to 60% es arise in both urban and rural areas. Since the months between the 2018/19 and 2020/21 agricultural seasons, in which the two surveys were conducted were so while the share using pesticides or herbicides rose from close, these findings are unlikely to be down to season- 47% to 69% over the same period. Agriculture’s capaci- ality alone. ty to create jobs may also have increased over the same The sample was restricted to only farming HHs in both GHS-Panel W4 and NLPS R8 . SHOCKS AND COPING MECHANISMS Households continued to experience severe shocks as in the 2020/21 agricultural season, around 63% of the COVID-19 crisis persisted since March 2020. Be- households also reported that prices of farm and busi- tween July 2020 and December 2020, 83% of house- ness inputs increased between July 2020 and December holds reported an increase in the price of major food 2020. Nevertheless, the prevalence of some shocks has items that they consumed, demonstrating a widespread waned as the crisis has drawn on. For example, be- deterioration in purchasing power. This builds on the tween mid-March 2020 and April/May 2020, 36% of rise in prices already observed between mid-March households experienced the closure of a non-farm busi- 2020 and July 2020. Notwithstanding the increased ness, but this share had halved to 18% by the period share of crop farming households that used farm inputs covering July 2020 to December 2020. *From GHS-panel W4. Restricted to HHs that are in NLPS (N= 1,645 HHs) https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 6 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING Households have also continued to adopt potentially households relying on their savings. There was also a harmful coping strategies in response to shocks. rise in the share of households that reported doing Around 58% of households that experienced a shock nothing in response to shocks. While this may partly between July 2020 and December 2020 reduced their indicate that households are less reliant on potentially food consumption, while 26% reduced their non-food harmful coping strategies, it may also be that house- consumption. As in the past, many households also holds are reaching a subsistence welfare level where adopted coping strategies which could reduce their coping strategies deployed in the past may no longer be long-term financial security, with 31% of shock-hit tenable. The sample was restricted to only farming HHs in both GHS-panel W4 and NLPS R8 . One additional change observed among Nigerian moved in with parents or other relatives, potentially to households, which may constitute a coping mechanism, pool incomes and manage the risks faced through the is that they have become larger. Specifically, households COVID-19 crisis, while others have reported returning had 6.6 members in November 2020, compared with from work migration or education. In this way, Nigeri- 5.5 members in January/February 2019. One of the an households are having to fully restructure in order main reasons reported for this is that individuals have to find ways to cope with the crisis. https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 7 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING ANNEX 1: ROLLING 7-DAY AVERAGE OF DAILY NEW CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES IN NIGERIA PER MILLION PEOPLE AND NLPS INTERVIEW TIMING Source: Our World in Data Shaded blue areas represent the dates when Round 7 and 8 of the NLPS were conducted. Data Notes: The Nigeria COVID-19 National Longitudinal Phone Survey (COVID-19 NLPS) 2020 Sev- enth and Eighth Rounds were implemented by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in November and December 2020. These surveys are part of a World Bank global effort to support countries in their data collect ion efforts to monitor the impacts of COVID-19. World Bank teams from the Development Data Group and the Poverty and Equity Global Practice provided technical support. These survey s are the seventh and eighth of a planned 12 rounds of the COVID-19 NLPS of households in Nigeria. 1,839 house- holds from the baseline were contacted and 1,726 and 1,723 households, fully interv iewed in the seventh and eighth rounds respectively. These same households will be contacted in subsequent rounds of the COVID-19 NLPS. The data are representative at the national level and survey weights were ca lculated to adjust for non-response and under coverage. For further details on the data, visit http://www.worldbank.org/lsms-covid19 and https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/nigeria/brief/monitoring-covid-19-impact-on-nigerian-households For further details on COVID-19 in Nigeria, visit https://nigeria-coronavirus-response-data-hub-nbs-nigeria.hub.arcgis.com/ For details on the survey, contact Biyi Fafunmi (biyifafunmi@ nigeria nstat.gov.ng) and Tunde Adebisi (tundeadebisi@ nigeria nstat.gov.ng) 8